Anabolic hormone profiles in elite military men.

PubMed

Taylor, Marcus K; Kviatkovsky, Shiloah A; Hernández, Lisa M; Sargent, Paul; Segal, Sabrina; Granger, Douglas A

2016-06-01

We recently characterized the awakening responses and daily profiles of the catabolic stress hormone cortisol in elite military men. Anabolic hormones follow a similar daily pattern and may counteract the catabolic effects of cortisol. This companion report is the first to characterize daily profiles of anabolic hormones dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and testosterone in this population. Overall, the men in this study displayed anabolic hormone profiles comparable to that of healthy, athletic populations. Consistent with the cortisol findings in our prior report, summary parameters of magnitude (hormone output) within the first hour after awakening displayed superior stability versus summary parameters of pattern for both DHEA (r range: 0.77-0.82) and testosterone (r range: 0.62-0.69). Summary parameters of evening function were stable for the two hormones (both p<0.001), while the absolute decrease in testosterone across the day was a stable proxy of diurnal function (p<0.001). Removal of noncompliant subjects did not appreciably affect concentration estimates for either hormone at any time point, nor did it alter the repeatability of any summary parameter. The first of its kind, this report enables accurate estimations of anabolic balance and resultant effects upon health and human performance in this highly resilient yet chronically stressed population. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimation of mean response via effective balancing score

PubMed Central

Hu, Zonghui; Follmann, Dean A.; Wang, Naisyin

2015-01-01

Summary We introduce effective balancing scores for estimation of the mean response under a missing at random mechanism. Unlike conventional balancing scores, the effective balancing scores are constructed via dimension reduction free of model specification. Three types of effective balancing scores are introduced: those that carry the covariate information about the missingness, the response, or both. They lead to consistent estimation with little or no loss in efficiency. Compared to existing estimators, the effective balancing score based estimator relieves the burden of model specification and is the most robust. It is a near-automatic procedure which is most appealing when high dimensional covariates are involved. We investigate both the asymptotic and the numerical properties, and demonstrate the proposed method in a study on Human Immunodeficiency Virus disease. PMID:25797955

Can statistic adjustment of OR minimize the potential confounding bias for meta-analysis of case-control study? A secondary data analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Tianyi; Nie, Xiaolu; Wu, Zehao; Zhang, Ying; Feng, Guoshuang; Cai, Siyu; Lv, Yaqi; Peng, Xiaoxia

2017-12-29

Different confounder adjustment strategies were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) in case-control study, i.e. how many confounders original studies adjusted and what the variables are. This secondary data analysis is aimed to detect whether there are potential biases caused by difference of confounding factor adjustment strategies in case-control study, and whether such bias would impact the summary effect size of meta-analysis. We included all meta-analyses that focused on the association between breast cancer and passive smoking among non-smoking women, as well as each original case-control studies included in these meta-analyses. The relative deviations (RDs) of each original study were calculated to detect how magnitude the adjustment would impact the estimation of ORs, compared with crude ORs. At the same time, a scatter diagram was sketched to describe the distribution of adjusted ORs with different number of adjusted confounders. Substantial inconsistency existed in meta-analysis of case-control studies, which would influence the precision of the summary effect size. First, mixed unadjusted and adjusted ORs were used to combine individual OR in majority of meta-analysis. Second, original studies with different adjustment strategies of confounders were combined, i.e. the number of adjusted confounders and different factors being adjusted in each original study. Third, adjustment did not make the effect size of original studies trend to constringency, which suggested that model fitting might have failed to correct the systematic error caused by confounding. The heterogeneity of confounder adjustment strategies in case-control studies may lead to further bias for summary effect size in meta-analyses, especially for weak or medium associations so that the direction of causal inference would be even reversed. Therefore, further methodological researches are needed, referring to the assessment of confounder adjustment strategies, as well as how to take this kind of bias into consideration when drawing conclusion based on summary estimation of meta-analyses.

Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program: Cost-Effectiveness Tables Development and Methodology

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

This document presents summary and detailed findings from a research effort to develop estimates of the cost-effectiveness of a range of project types funded under the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program. In this study, c...

Measuring the statistical validity of summary meta‐analysis and meta‐regression results for use in clinical practice

PubMed Central

Riley, Richard D.

2017-01-01

An important question for clinicians appraising a meta‐analysis is: are the findings likely to be valid in their own practice—does the reported effect accurately represent the effect that would occur in their own clinical population? To this end we advance the concept of statistical validity—where the parameter being estimated equals the corresponding parameter for a new independent study. Using a simple (‘leave‐one‐out’) cross‐validation technique, we demonstrate how we may test meta‐analysis estimates for statistical validity using a new validation statistic, Vn, and derive its distribution. We compare this with the usual approach of investigating heterogeneity in meta‐analyses and demonstrate the link between statistical validity and homogeneity. Using a simulation study, the properties of Vn and the Q statistic are compared for univariate random effects meta‐analysis and a tailored meta‐regression model, where information from the setting (included as model covariates) is used to calibrate the summary estimate to the setting of application. Their properties are found to be similar when there are 50 studies or more, but for fewer studies Vn has greater power but a higher type 1 error rate than Q. The power and type 1 error rate of Vn are also shown to depend on the within‐study variance, between‐study variance, study sample size, and the number of studies in the meta‐analysis. Finally, we apply Vn to two published meta‐analyses and conclude that it usefully augments standard methods when deciding upon the likely validity of summary meta‐analysis estimates in clinical practice. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28620945

Measuring the statistical validity of summary meta-analysis and meta-regression results for use in clinical practice.

PubMed

Willis, Brian H; Riley, Richard D

2017-09-20

An important question for clinicians appraising a meta-analysis is: are the findings likely to be valid in their own practice-does the reported effect accurately represent the effect that would occur in their own clinical population? To this end we advance the concept of statistical validity-where the parameter being estimated equals the corresponding parameter for a new independent study. Using a simple ('leave-one-out') cross-validation technique, we demonstrate how we may test meta-analysis estimates for statistical validity using a new validation statistic, Vn, and derive its distribution. We compare this with the usual approach of investigating heterogeneity in meta-analyses and demonstrate the link between statistical validity and homogeneity. Using a simulation study, the properties of Vn and the Q statistic are compared for univariate random effects meta-analysis and a tailored meta-regression model, where information from the setting (included as model covariates) is used to calibrate the summary estimate to the setting of application. Their properties are found to be similar when there are 50 studies or more, but for fewer studies Vn has greater power but a higher type 1 error rate than Q. The power and type 1 error rate of Vn are also shown to depend on the within-study variance, between-study variance, study sample size, and the number of studies in the meta-analysis. Finally, we apply Vn to two published meta-analyses and conclude that it usefully augments standard methods when deciding upon the likely validity of summary meta-analysis estimates in clinical practice. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Deconvolution from Wavefront Sensing Using Optimal Wavefront Estimators

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-12-01

Error Results ....... ............................ 86 B.1 Introduction ................................ 86 B.1.1 Effect of Light Level, my...86 B.1.2 Effect of Atmospheric Coherence Diameter, r0 . . 86 B.1.3 Effect of Tilt Removal ................... 86 B.2 Summary... Effect of Light Level, my .................... 89 C.1.2 Effect of Atmospheric Coherence Diameter, r0 . . 89 C.1.3 Effect of Tilt Removal

The Effects of Physical Impairment on Shooting Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

Anthropometry Anthropometric data were collected from each participant. Summary anthropometric statistics are shown in table 1. Table 1...information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and...maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of

Median nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the New Jersey Highlands Region estimated using regression models and land-surface characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Ronald J.; Chepiga, Mary M.; Cauller, Stephen J.

2015-01-01

The Kaplan-Meier method of estimating summary statistics from left-censored data was applied in order to include nondetects (left-censored data) in median nitrate-concentration calculations. Median concentrations also were determined using three alternative methods of handling nondetects. Treatment of the 23 percent of samples that were nondetects had little effect on estimated median nitrate concentrations because method detection limits were mostly less than median values.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, William Scott

This seminar presentation describes amplitude models and yield estimations that look at the data in order to inform legislation. The following points were brought forth in the summary: global models that will predict three-component amplitudes (R-T-Z) were produced; Q models match regional geology; corrected source spectra can be used for discrimination and yield estimation; three-component data increase coverage and reduce scatter in source spectral estimates; three-component efforts must include distance-dependent effects; a community effort on instrument calibration is needed.

Estimating the optimal dynamic antipsychotic treatment regime: Evidence from the sequential multiple assignment randomized CATIE Schizophrenia Study

PubMed Central

Shortreed, Susan M.; Moodie, Erica E. M.

2012-01-01

Summary Treatment of schizophrenia is notoriously difficult and typically requires personalized adaption of treatment due to lack of efficacy of treatment, poor adherence, or intolerable side effects. The Clinical Antipsychotic Trials in Intervention Effectiveness (CATIE) Schizophrenia Study is a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial comparing the typical antipsychotic medication, perphenazine, to several newer atypical antipsychotics. This paper describes the marginal structural modeling method for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes and applies the approach to the CATIE Schizophrenia Study. Missing data and valid estimation of confidence intervals are also addressed. PMID:23087488

Transformation of Summary Statistics from Linear Mixed Model Association on All-or-None Traits to Odds Ratio.

PubMed

Lloyd-Jones, Luke R; Robinson, Matthew R; Yang, Jian; Visscher, Peter M

2018-04-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of loci that are robustly associated with complex diseases. The use of linear mixed model (LMM) methodology for GWAS is becoming more prevalent due to its ability to control for population structure and cryptic relatedness and to increase power. The odds ratio (OR) is a common measure of the association of a disease with an exposure ( e.g. , a genetic variant) and is readably available from logistic regression. However, when the LMM is applied to all-or-none traits it provides estimates of genetic effects on the observed 0-1 scale, a different scale to that in logistic regression. This limits the comparability of results across studies, for example in a meta-analysis, and makes the interpretation of the magnitude of an effect from an LMM GWAS difficult. In this study, we derived transformations from the genetic effects estimated under the LMM to the OR that only rely on summary statistics. To test the proposed transformations, we used real genotypes from two large, publicly available data sets to simulate all-or-none phenotypes for a set of scenarios that differ in underlying model, disease prevalence, and heritability. Furthermore, we applied these transformations to GWAS summary statistics for type 2 diabetes generated from 108,042 individuals in the UK Biobank. In both simulation and real-data application, we observed very high concordance between the transformed OR from the LMM and either the simulated truth or estimates from logistic regression. The transformations derived and validated in this study improve the comparability of results from prospective and already performed LMM GWAS on complex diseases by providing a reliable transformation to a common comparative scale for the genetic effects. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 1. Executive Summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-09-01

Integrated Paratransit (IP) is a concept which involves the integration of conventional fixed-route transit with flexibly routed paratransit services to provide the most effective area-wide transit coverage. The report estimates the benefits and cost...

The Effects of Resources across School Phases: A Summary of Recent Evidence. CEP Discussion Paper No. 1226

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbons, Stephen; McNally, Sandra

2013-01-01

This report provides an overview and discussion of the past decade of academic evidence on the causal effects of resources in schooling on students' outcomes. Early evidence lacked good strategies for estimating the effects of schools resources, leading many people to conclude that spending more on schools had no effect. More recent evidence using…

Effects of antenatal diet and physical activity on maternal and fetal outcomes: individual patient data meta-analysis and health economic evaluation.

PubMed

Rogozińska, Ewelina; Marlin, Nadine; Jackson, Louise; Rayanagoudar, Girish; Ruifrok, Anneloes E; Dodds, Julie; Molyneaux, Emma; van Poppel, Mireille Nm; Poston, Lucilla; Vinter, Christina A; McAuliffe, Fionnuala; Dodd, Jodie M; Owens, Julie; Barakat, Ruben; Perales, Maria; Cecatti, Jose G; Surita, Fernanda; Yeo, SeonAe; Bogaerts, Annick; Devlieger, Roland; Teede, Helena; Harrison, Cheryce; Haakstad, Lene; Shen, Garry X; Shub, Alexis; Beltagy, Nermeen El; Motahari, Narges; Khoury, Janette; Tonstad, Serena; Luoto, Riitta; Kinnunen, Tarja I; Guelfi, Kym; Facchinetti, Fabio; Petrella, Elisabetta; Phelan, Suzanne; Scudeller, Tânia T; Rauh, Kathrin; Hauner, Hans; Renault, Kristina; de Groot, Christianne Jm; Sagedal, Linda R; Vistad, Ingvild; Stafne, Signe Nilssen; Mørkved, Siv; Salvesen, Kjell Å; Jensen, Dorte M; Vitolo, Márcia; Astrup, Arne; Geiker, Nina Rw; Kerry, Sally; Barton, Pelham; Roberts, Tracy; Riley, Richard D; Coomarasamy, Arri; Mol, Ben Willem; Khan, Khalid S; Thangaratinam, Shakila

2017-08-01

Diet- and physical activity-based interventions in pregnancy have the potential to alter maternal and child outcomes. To assess whether or not the effects of diet and lifestyle interventions vary in subgroups of women, based on maternal body mass index (BMI), age, parity, Caucasian ethnicity and underlying medical condition(s), by undertaking an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. We also evaluated the association of gestational weight gain (GWG) with adverse pregnancy outcomes and assessed the cost-effectiveness of the interventions. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment database were searched from October 2013 to March 2015 (to update a previous search). Researchers from the International Weight Management in Pregnancy Collaborative Network shared the primary data. For each intervention type and outcome, we performed a two-step IPD random-effects meta-analysis, for all women (except underweight) combined and for each subgroup of interest, to obtain summary estimates of effects and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and synthesised the differences in effects between subgroups. In the first stage, we fitted a linear regression adjusted for baseline (for continuous outcomes) or a logistic regression model (for binary outcomes) in each study separately; estimates were combined across studies using random-effects meta-analysis models. We quantified the relationship between weight gain and complications, and undertook a decision-analytic model-based economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of the interventions. Diet and lifestyle interventions reduced GWG by an average of 0.70 kg (95% CI -0.92 to -0.48 kg; 33 studies, 9320 women). The effects on composite maternal outcome [summary odds ratio (OR) 0.90, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.03; 24 studies, 8852 women] and composite fetal/neonatal outcome (summary OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.08; 18 studies, 7981 women) were not significant. The effect did not vary with baseline BMI, age, ethnicity, parity or underlying medical conditions for GWG, and composite maternal and fetal outcomes. Lifestyle interventions reduce Caesarean sections (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99), but not other individual maternal outcomes such as gestational diabetes mellitus (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.10), pre-eclampsia or pregnancy-induced hypertension (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.16) and preterm birth (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.13). There was no significant effect on fetal outcomes. The interventions were not cost-effective. GWG, including adherence to the Institute of Medicine-recommended targets, was not associated with a reduction in complications. Predictors of GWG were maternal age (summary estimate -0.10 kg, 95% CI -0.14 to -0.06 kg) and multiparity (summary estimate -0.73 kg, 95% CI -1.24 to -0.23 kg). The findings were limited by the lack of standardisation in the components of intervention, residual heterogeneity in effects across studies for most analyses and the unavailability of IPD in some studies. Diet and lifestyle interventions in pregnancy are clinically effective in reducing GWG irrespective of risk factors, with no effects on composite maternal and fetal outcomes. The differential effects of lifestyle interventions on individual pregnancy outcomes need evaluation. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003804. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Accounting for Uncertainty in Gene Tree Estimation: Summary-Coalescent Species Tree Inference in a Challenging Radiation of Australian Lizards.

PubMed

Blom, Mozes P K; Bragg, Jason G; Potter, Sally; Moritz, Craig

2017-05-01

Accurate gene tree inference is an important aspect of species tree estimation in a summary-coalescent framework. Yet, in empirical studies, inferred gene trees differ in accuracy due to stochastic variation in phylogenetic signal between targeted loci. Empiricists should, therefore, examine the consistency of species tree inference, while accounting for the observed heterogeneity in gene tree resolution of phylogenomic data sets. Here, we assess the impact of gene tree estimation error on summary-coalescent species tree inference by screening ${\\sim}2000$ exonic loci based on gene tree resolution prior to phylogenetic inference. We focus on a phylogenetically challenging radiation of Australian lizards (genus Cryptoblepharus, Scincidae) and explore effects on topology and support. We identify a well-supported topology based on all loci and find that a relatively small number of high-resolution gene trees can be sufficient to converge on the same topology. Adding gene trees with decreasing resolution produced a generally consistent topology, and increased confidence for specific bipartitions that were poorly supported when using a small number of informative loci. This corroborates coalescent-based simulation studies that have highlighted the need for a large number of loci to confidently resolve challenging relationships and refutes the notion that low-resolution gene trees introduce phylogenetic noise. Further, our study also highlights the value of quantifying changes in nodal support across locus subsets of increasing size (but decreasing gene tree resolution). Such detailed analyses can reveal anomalous fluctuations in support at some nodes, suggesting the possibility of model violation. By characterizing the heterogeneity in phylogenetic signal among loci, we can account for uncertainty in gene tree estimation and assess its effect on the consistency of the species tree estimate. We suggest that the evaluation of gene tree resolution should be incorporated in the analysis of empirical phylogenomic data sets. This will ultimately increase our confidence in species tree estimation using summary-coalescent methods and enable us to exploit genomic data for phylogenetic inference. [Coalescence; concatenation; Cryptoblepharus; exon capture; gene tree; phylogenomics; species tree.]. © The authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permission@oup.com.

Effective Population Size, Genetic Variation, and Their Relevance for Conservation: The Bighorn Sheep in Tiburon Island and Comparisons with Managed Artiodactyls

PubMed Central

Gasca-Pineda, Jaime; Cassaigne, Ivonne; Alonso, Rogelio A.; Eguiarte, Luis E.

2013-01-01

The amount of genetic diversity in a finite biological population mostly depends on the interactions among evolutionary forces and the effective population size (N e) as well as the time since population establishment. Because the N e estimation helps to explore population demographic history, and allows one to predict the behavior of genetic diversity through time, N e is a key parameter for the genetic management of small and isolated populations. Here, we explored an N e-based approach using a bighorn sheep population on Tiburon Island, Mexico (TI) as a model. We estimated the current (N crnt) and ancestral stable (N stbl) inbreeding effective population sizes as well as summary statistics to assess genetic diversity and the demographic scenarios that could explain such diversity. Then, we evaluated the feasibility of using TI as a source population for reintroduction programs. We also included data from other bighorn sheep and artiodactyl populations in the analysis to compare their inbreeding effective size estimates. The TI population showed high levels of genetic diversity with respect to other managed populations. However, our analysis suggested that TI has been under a genetic bottleneck, indicating that using individuals from this population as the only source for reintroduction could lead to a severe genetic diversity reduction. Analyses of the published data did not show a strict correlation between H E and N crnt estimates. Moreover, we detected that ancient anthropogenic and climatic pressures affected all studied populations. We conclude that the estimation of N crnt and N stbl are informative genetic diversity estimators and should be used in addition to summary statistics for conservation and population management planning. PMID:24147115

Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk.

PubMed

Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

2006-07-01

An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.

Risk Management Concepts and Guidance

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-01

SUMMARY . ,den.ifying risks 5.3 PROGRAMMATIC RISK SUMMARY o Quantifying risk 5.4 SUPPORTABILITY RISK SUMMARY 55 SCHEDULE RISK SUMMARY * Use of tools to...with Life Cycle Cost Estimates," Defense Systems Management School, (Fort Belvoir). 1973. 207. Lieber, R.S., "New Approaches for Quantifying Risk and

Incidence of Opportunistic Infections and the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-Infected Adults in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Low, Andrea; Gavriilidis, Georgios; Larke, Natasha; B-Lajoie, Marie-Renee; Drouin, Olivier; Stover, John; Muhe, Lulu; Easterbrook, Philippa

2016-06-15

To understand regional burdens and inform delivery of health services, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on incidence of key opportunistic infections (OIs) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Eligible studies describing the cumulative incidence of OIs and proportion on ART from 1990 to November 2013 were identified using multiple databases. Summary incident risks for the ART-naive period, and during and after the first year of ART, were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Summary estimates from ART subgroups were compared using meta-regression. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted if ART was initiated at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/µL were estimated using Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) country estimates and global average OI treatment cost per case. We identified 7965 citations, and included 126 studies describing 491 608 HIV-infected persons. In ART-naive patients, summary risk was highest (>5%) for oral candidiasis, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and bacterial pneumonia. The reduction in incidence was greatest for all OIs during the first 12 months of ART (range, 57%-91%) except for tuberculosis, and was largest for oral candidiasis, Pneumocystis pneumonia, and toxoplasmosis. Earlier ART was estimated to have averted 857 828 cases in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI], 828 032-874 853), with cost savings of $46.7 million (95% CI, $43.8-$49.4 million). There was a major reduction in risk for most OIs with ART use in LMICs, with the greatest effect seen in the first year of treatment. ART has resulted in substantial cost savings from OIs averted. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Incidence of Opportunistic Infections and the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-Infected Adults in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Low, Andrea; Gavriilidis, Georgios; Larke, Natasha; B-Lajoie, Marie-Renee; Drouin, Olivier; Stover, John; Muhe, Lulu; Easterbrook, Philippa

2016-01-01

Background. To understand regional burdens and inform delivery of health services, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on incidence of key opportunistic infections (OIs) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected adults in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods. Eligible studies describing the cumulative incidence of OIs and proportion on ART from 1990 to November 2013 were identified using multiple databases. Summary incident risks for the ART-naive period, and during and after the first year of ART, were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Summary estimates from ART subgroups were compared using meta-regression. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted if ART was initiated at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/µL were estimated using Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) country estimates and global average OI treatment cost per case. Results. We identified 7965 citations, and included 126 studies describing 491 608 HIV-infected persons. In ART-naive patients, summary risk was highest (>5%) for oral candidiasis, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and bacterial pneumonia. The reduction in incidence was greatest for all OIs during the first 12 months of ART (range, 57%–91%) except for tuberculosis, and was largest for oral candidiasis, Pneumocystis pneumonia, and toxoplasmosis. Earlier ART was estimated to have averted 857 828 cases in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI], 828 032–874 853), with cost savings of $46.7 million (95% CI, $43.8–$49.4 million). Conclusions. There was a major reduction in risk for most OIs with ART use in LMICs, with the greatest effect seen in the first year of treatment. ART has resulted in substantial cost savings from OIs averted. PMID:26951573

Gallium arsenide (GaAs) power conversion concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nussberger, A. A.

1980-01-01

A summary design analysis of a GaAs power conversion system for the solar power satellite (SPS) is presented. Eight different satellite configuration options for the solar arrays are compared. Solar cell annealing effects after proton irradiation are considered. Mass estimates for the SPS and the effect of solar cell parameters on SPS array design are discussed.

Transit boardings estimation and simulation tool (TBEST) calibration for guideway and BRT modes : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

As demand for public transportation grows, planning tools used by Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) and other transit agencies must evolve to effectively predict changing patterns of ridership. A key tool for this purpose is the Transit Boa...

Regional Detection of Decoupled Explosions, Yield Estimation from Surface Waves, Two-Dimensional Source Effects, Three-Dimensional Earthquake Modeling and Automated Magnitude Measures

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

41 3.2 EXPERIMENTAL DETERMINATION OF THE DEPENDENCE OF RAYLEIGH WAVE AMPLITUDE ON PROPERTIES OF THE SOURCE MATERIAL ...Surface Wave Observations ...... ................ 48 3.3.3 Surface Wave Dependence on Source Material Properties ..... ................ .. 51 SYSTEMS...with various aspects of the problem of estimating yield from single station recordings of surface waves. The material in these four summaries has been

Weighted Statistical Binning: Enabling Statistically Consistent Genome-Scale Phylogenetic Analyses

PubMed Central

Bayzid, Md Shamsuzzoha; Mirarab, Siavash; Boussau, Bastien; Warnow, Tandy

2015-01-01

Because biological processes can result in different loci having different evolutionary histories, species tree estimation requires multiple loci from across multiple genomes. While many processes can result in discord between gene trees and species trees, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modeled by the multi-species coalescent, is considered to be a dominant cause for gene tree heterogeneity. Coalescent-based methods have been developed to estimate species trees, many of which operate by combining estimated gene trees, and so are called "summary methods". Because summary methods are generally fast (and much faster than more complicated coalescent-based methods that co-estimate gene trees and species trees), they have become very popular techniques for estimating species trees from multiple loci. However, recent studies have established that summary methods can have reduced accuracy in the presence of gene tree estimation error, and also that many biological datasets have substantial gene tree estimation error, so that summary methods may not be highly accurate in biologically realistic conditions. Mirarab et al. (Science 2014) presented the "statistical binning" technique to improve gene tree estimation in multi-locus analyses, and showed that it improved the accuracy of MP-EST, one of the most popular coalescent-based summary methods. Statistical binning, which uses a simple heuristic to evaluate "combinability" and then uses the larger sets of genes to re-calculate gene trees, has good empirical performance, but using statistical binning within a phylogenomic pipeline does not have the desirable property of being statistically consistent. We show that weighting the re-calculated gene trees by the bin sizes makes statistical binning statistically consistent under the multispecies coalescent, and maintains the good empirical performance. Thus, "weighted statistical binning" enables highly accurate genome-scale species tree estimation, and is also statistically consistent under the multi-species coalescent model. New data used in this study are available at DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1411146, and the software is available at https://github.com/smirarab/binning. PMID:26086579

Validation of a single summary score for the Prolapse/Incontinence Sexual Questionnaire-IUGA revised (PISQ-IR).

PubMed

Constantine, Melissa L; Pauls, Rachel N; Rogers, Rebecca R; Rockwood, Todd H

2017-12-01

The Prolapse/Incontinence Sexual Questionnaire-International Urogynecology Association (IUGA) Revised (PISQ-IR) measures sexual function in women with pelvic floor disorders (PFDs) yet is unwieldy, with six individual subscale scores for sexually active women and four for women who are not. We hypothesized that a valid and responsive summary score could be created for the PISQ-IR. Item response data from participating women who completed a revised version of the PISQ-IR at three clinical sites were used to generate item weights using a magnitude estimation (ME) and Q-sort (Q) approaches. Item weights were applied to data from the original PISQ-IR validation to generate summary scores. Correlation and factor analysis methods were used to evaluate validity and responsiveness of summary scores. Weighted and nonweighted summary scores for the sexually active PISQ-IR demonstrated good criterion validity with condition-specific measures: Incontinence Severity Index = 0.12, 0.11, 0.11; Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 = 0.39, 0.39, 0.12; Epidemiology of Prolapse and Incontinence Questionnaire-Q35 = 0.26 0,.25, 0.40); Female Sexual Functioning Index subscale total score = 0.72, 0.75, 0.72 for nonweighted, ME, and Q summary scores, respectively. Responsiveness evaluation showed weighted and nonweighted summary scores detected moderate effect sizes (Cohen's d > 0.5). Weighted items for those NSA demonstrated significant floor effects and did not meet criterion validity. A PISQ-IR summary score for use with sexually active women, nonweighted or calculated with ME or Q item weights, is a valid and reliable measure for clinical use. The summary scores provide value for assesing clinical treatment of pelvic floor disorders.

2012 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey: Energy Usage Summary

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

EIA has released summary tables providing energy consumption estimates from the 2012 CBECS. The data show that despite a 14% increase in total buildings and a 22% increase in total floorspace since 2003, energy use in the estimated 5.6 million U.S. commercial buildings was up just 7% during the same period.

78 FR 78985 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-27

...) will publish periodic summaries of proposed projects. To request more information on the proposed... the effects and accomplishments of SAMHSA programs. The following table is an estimated annual... transaction \\1\\ This table represents the maximum additional burden if adult respondents for ATR provide...

Development of a Traffic Management Decision Support Tool for Freeway Incident Traffic Management (FITM) Plan Deployment : Research Summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-01

In designing an effective traffic management plan for non-recurrent congestion, it is critical for responsible highway agencies to have some vital information, such as estimated incident duration, resulting traffic queues, and the expected delays. Ov...

Extremes in ecology: Avoiding the misleading effects of sampling variation in summary analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1996-01-01

Surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) produce large collections of parameter estimates. One's natural inclination when confronted with lists of parameter estimates is to look for the extreme values: in the BBS, these correspond to the species that appear to have the greatest changes in population size through time. Unfortunately, extreme estimates are liable to correspond to the most poorly estimated parameters. Consequently, the most extreme parameters may not match up with the most extreme parameter estimates. The ranking of parameter values on the basis of their estimates are a difficult statistical problem. We use data from the BBS and simulations to illustrate the potential misleading effects of sampling variation in rankings of parameters. We describe empirical Bayes and constrained empirical Bayes procedures which provide partial solutions to the problem of ranking in the presence of sampling variation.

EOS Aqua: Mission Status at Earth Science Constellation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guit, Bill

2016-01-01

This is an EOS Aqua Mission Status presentation to be given at the MOWG meeting in Albuquerque NM. The topics to discus are: mission summary, spacecraft subsystems summary, recent and planned activities, inclination adjust maneuvers, propellant usage and lifetime estimate, and mission summary.

Classification of Wind Farm Turbulence and Its Effects on General Aviation Aircraft and Airports : Technical Summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The focus of this project was to estimate the potential impact of a new motor vehicle government mandate for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology on the demand for aftermarket devices, applications, and infrastructure that leverages the same dedicated...

Turbine Fuels from Tar Sands Bitumen and Heavy Oil. Phase I. Preliminary Process Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-04-09

OIL RESERVOIRS OF THE UNITED STATES Resource: Oil -in-Place State Field Name (County) (Million Bbls.) Arkansas Smackover Old (Union) 1,6U0 California...Flow Schematic for Gas Oil Feed Hydrotreater 94 14 Summary of Case Studies for Processing Bitumen from New Mexico 95 15 Summary of Case Studies for...Naphtha Hydrotreating Process Estimates 112 14 Gas Oil Hydrocracking Process Estimates 113 l! Gas Oil Hydrotreating Process Estimate 114 16 Fluid

Alcohol intake and gastric cancer: Meta-analyses of published data versus individual participant data pooled analyses (StoP Project).

PubMed

Ferro, Ana; Morais, Samantha; Rota, Matteo; Pelucchi, Claudio; Bertuccio, Paola; Bonzi, Rossella; Galeone, Carlotta; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Hu, Jinfu; Johnson, Kenneth C; Yu, Guo-Pei; Palli, Domenico; Ferraroni, Monica; Muscat, Joshua; Malekzadeh, Reza; Ye, Weimin; Song, Huan; Zaridze, David; Maximovitch, Dmitry; Fernández de Larrea, Nerea; Kogevinas, Manolis; Vioque, Jesus; Navarrete-Muñoz, Eva M; Pakseresht, Mohammadreza; Pourfarzi, Farhad; Wolk, Alicja; Orsini, Nicola; Bellavia, Andrea; Håkansson, Niclas; Mu, Lina; Pastorino, Roberta; Kurtz, Robert C; Derakhshan, Mohammad H; Lagiou, Areti; Lagiou, Pagona; Boffetta, Paolo; Boccia, Stefania; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Lunet, Nuno

2018-05-01

Individual participant data pooled analyses allow access to non-published data and statistical reanalyses based on more homogeneous criteria than meta-analyses based on systematic reviews. We quantified the impact of publication-related biases and heterogeneity in data analysis and presentation in summary estimates of the association between alcohol drinking and gastric cancer. We compared estimates obtained from conventional meta-analyses, using only data available in published reports from studies that take part in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, with individual participant data pooled analyses including the same studies. A total of 22 studies from the StoP Project assessed the relation between alcohol intake and gastric cancer, 19 had specific data for levels of consumption and 18 according to cancer location; published reports addressing these associations were available from 18, 5 and 5 studies, respectively. The summary odds ratios [OR, (95%CI)] estimate obtained with published data for drinkers vs. non-drinkers was 10% higher than the one obtained with individual StoP data [18 vs. 22 studies: 1.21 (1.07-1.36) vs. 1.10 (0.99-1.23)] and more heterogeneous (I 2 : 63.6% vs 54.4%). In general, published data yielded less precise summary estimates (standard errors up to 2.6 times higher). Funnel plot analysis suggested publication bias. Meta-analyses of the association between alcohol drinking and gastric cancer tended to overestimate the magnitude of the effects, possibly due to publication bias. Additionally, individual participant data pooled analyses yielded more precise estimates for different levels of exposure or cancer subtypes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient Factors Associated with Quality of Life in Atrial Fibrillation Randolph—Determinants of Quality of Life in Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Randolph, Tiffany C.; Simon, DaJuanicia N.; Thomas, Laine; Allen, Larry A.; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Gersh, Bernard J.; Kowey, Peter R.; Reiffel, James A.; Naccarelli, Gerald V.; Chan, Paul S.; Spertus, John A.; Peterson, Eric D.; Piccini, Jonathan P.

2016-01-01

Background As treatment options for atrial fibrillation (AF) increase, more attention is focused on patients’ experiences and quality of life (QoL). However, little is known about the factors associated with these outcomes. Methods The Atrial Fibrillation Effect on QualiTy-of-life (AFEQT) is a disease-specific QoL tool for AF, with domain and summary scores ranging from 0 (the worst QoL) to 100. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated factors associated with baseline AFEQT Summary and Subscale Scores in ORBIT AF, a large, community-based AF registry. Independent associations were reported as coefficient estimates in scores and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Overall, AFEQT was assessed in 2,007 AF outpatients from 99 sites. Median age (IQR) was 76 years (67-82) and 43% were female. The median AFEQT summary score was 82 (67-94). Female sex, younger age, new onset AF, higher heart rate, obstructive sleep apnea, symptomatic heart failure (HF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and coronary artery disease were all independently associated with reduced QoL. Female sex [Estimate −7.03, 95% CI (−9.31, −4.75)] and new onset versus permanent AF [Estimate −7.44, 95% CI (−11.03, −3.84)] were independently associated with increased symptoms. NYHA Class III or IV HF [Estimate -14.44, 95% CI (−19.46, −8.76)] and female sex [Estimate −7.91, 95% CI (−9.95, −5.88)] were most independently associated with impaired daily activities. Conclusions QoL in patients with AF varies widely and is associated with several patient factors. Understanding patient factors independently associated with worse QoL can be a foundation for tailoring treatment. PMID:27914493

[An essay on Quebec's demographic development from 1534 to 2034].

PubMed

Charbonneau, H

1984-04-01

A general review of the development of the population of Quebec since 1534 is presented in the form of separate summaries for each 50-year period. Topics discussed include sources of data, estimates of the North American Indian population, and estimates of immigration. Some consideration is given to projections to the year 2034. (summary in ENG, SPA)

What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela

2017-03-01

Here, one of the substantial improvements to the practice of data analysis in recent decades is the change from reporting just a point estimate for a parameter or characteristic, to now including a summary of uncertainty for that estimate. Understanding the precision of the estimate for the quantity of interest provides better understanding of what to expect and how well we are able to predict future behavior from the process. For example, when we report a sample average as an estimate of the population mean, it is good practice to also provide a confidence interval (or credible interval, if youmore » are doing a Bayesian analysis) to accompany that summary. This helps to calibrate what ranges of values are reasonable given the variability observed in the sample and the amount of data that were included in producing the summary.« less

A review and meta-analysis of prospective studies of red and processed meat intake and prostate cancer

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Over the past decade, several large epidemiologic investigations of meat intake and prostate cancer have been published. Therefore, a meta-analysis of prospective studies was conducted to estimate potential associations between red or processed meat intake and prostate cancer. Fifteen studies of red meat and 11 studies of processed meat were included in the analyses. High vs. low intake and dose-response analyses were conducted using random effects models to generate summary relative risk estimates (SRRE). No association between high vs. low red meat consumption (SRRE = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.96-1.05) or each 100 g increment of red meat (SRRE = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.95-1.05) and total prostate cancer was observed. Similarly, no association with red meat was observed for advanced prostate cancer (SRRE = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.94-1.09). A weakly elevated summary association between processed meat and total prostate cancer was found (SRRE = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99-1.12), although heterogeneity was present, the association was attenuated in a sub-group analysis of studies that adjusted for multiple potential confounding factors, and publication bias likely affected the summary effect. In conclusion, the results of this meta-analysis are not supportive of an independent positive association between red or processed meat intake and prostate cancer. PMID:21044319

The relative responsiveness of test instruments can be estimated using a meta-analytic approach: an illustration with treatments for depression.

PubMed

Kounali, Daphne Z; Button, Katherine S; Lewis, Glyn; Ades, Anthony E

2016-09-01

We present a meta-analytic method that combines information on treatment effects from different instruments from a network of randomized trials to estimate instrument relative responsiveness. Five depression-test instruments [Beck Depression Inventory (BDI I/II), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ9), Hamilton Rating for Depression 17 and 24 items, Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating] and three generic quality of life measures [EuroQoL (EQ-5D), SF36 mental component summary (SF36 MCS), and physical component summary (SF36 PCS)] were compared. Randomized trials of treatments for depression reporting outcomes on any two or more of these instruments were identified. Information on the within-trial ratios of standardized treatment effects was pooled across the studies to estimate relative responsiveness. The between-instrument ratios of standardized treatment effects vary across trials, with a coefficient of variation of 13% (95% credible interval: 6%, 25%). There were important differences between the depression measures, with PHQ9 being the most responsive instrument and BDI the least. Responsiveness of the EQ-5D and SF36 PCS was poor. SF36 MCS performed similarly to depression instruments. Information on relative responsiveness of several test instruments can be pooled across networks of trials reporting at least two outcomes, allowing comparison and ranking of test instruments that may never have been compared directly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical properties of four effect-size measures for mediation models.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; O'Rourke, Holly P; MacKinnon, David P; Brown, Hendricks C

2018-02-01

This project examined the performance of classical and Bayesian estimators of four effect size measures for the indirect effect in a single-mediator model and a two-mediator model. Compared to the proportion and ratio mediation effect sizes, standardized mediation effect-size measures were relatively unbiased and efficient in the single-mediator model and the two-mediator model. Percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap interval estimates of ab/s Y , and ab(s X )/s Y in the single-mediator model outperformed interval estimates of the proportion and ratio effect sizes in terms of power, Type I error rate, coverage, imbalance, and interval width. For the two-mediator model, standardized effect-size measures were superior to the proportion and ratio effect-size measures. Furthermore, it was found that Bayesian point and interval summaries of posterior distributions of standardized effect-size measures reduced excessive relative bias for certain parameter combinations. The standardized effect-size measures are the best effect-size measures for quantifying mediated effects.

Artificial neural networks for stiffness estimation in magnetic resonance elastography.

PubMed

Murphy, Matthew C; Manduca, Armando; Trzasko, Joshua D; Glaser, Kevin J; Huston, John; Ehman, Richard L

2018-07-01

To investigate the feasibility of using artificial neural networks to estimate stiffness from MR elastography (MRE) data. Artificial neural networks were fit using model-based training patterns to estimate stiffness from images of displacement using a patch size of ∼1 cm in each dimension. These neural network inversions (NNIs) were then evaluated in a set of simulation experiments designed to investigate the effects of wave interference and noise on NNI accuracy. NNI was also tested in vivo, comparing NNI results against currently used methods. In 4 simulation experiments, NNI performed as well or better than direct inversion (DI) for predicting the known stiffness of the data. Summary NNI results were also shown to be significantly correlated with DI results in the liver (R 2  = 0.974) and in the brain (R 2  = 0.915), and also correlated with established biological effects including fibrosis stage in the liver and age in the brain. Finally, repeatability error was lower in the brain using NNI compared to DI, and voxel-wise modeling using NNI stiffness maps detected larger effects than using DI maps with similar levels of smoothing. Artificial neural networks represent a new approach to inversion of MRE data. Summary results from NNI and DI are highly correlated and both are capable of detecting biologically relevant signals. Preliminary evidence suggests that NNI stiffness estimates may be more resistant to noise than an algebraic DI approach. Taken together, these results merit future investigation into NNIs to improve the estimation of stiffness in small regions. Magn Reson Med 80:351-360, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Mission Status at Aura Science Team MOWG Meeting: EOS Aura

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Dominic

2016-01-01

Presentation at the 24797-16 Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Science Team Meeting (Mission Operations Work Group (MOWG)) at Rotterdam, Netherlands August 29, 2016. Presentation topics include mission summary, spacecraft subsystems summary, recent and planned activities, spacecraft anomalies, data capture, propellant usage and lifetime estimates, spacecraft maneuvers and ground track history, mission highlights and past spacecraft anomalies and reliability estimates.

Meta-analysis of single-arm survival studies: a distribution-free approach for estimating summary survival curves with random effects.

PubMed

Combescure, Christophe; Foucher, Yohann; Jackson, Daniel

2014-07-10

In epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with time-dependent outcome (for instance death or disease progression), survival curves are used to describe the risk of the event over time. In meta-analyses of studies reporting a survival curve, the most informative finding is a summary survival curve. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a distribution-free summary survival curve by expanding the product-limit estimator of survival for aggregated survival data. The extension of DerSimonian and Laird's methodology for multiple outcomes is applied to account for the between-study heterogeneity. Statistics I(2)  and H(2) are used to quantify the impact of the heterogeneity in the published survival curves. A statistical test for between-strata comparison is proposed, with the aim to explore study-level factors potentially associated with survival. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study. Our approach is also applied to synthesize the survival of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from aggregate data of 27 studies and synthesize the graft survival of kidney transplant recipients from individual data from six hospitals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effectiveness of the 55 MPH national maximum speed limit as a life saving benefit : executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

The following report contains an analysis of the life saving benefits resulting from the 55 mph NMSL from 1974-1979. Monthly fatality data from 1970-1979 was used in a time series model to arrive at the estimated safety benefits (lives saved). The ti...

REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ASSESSMENT USING MECHANISTIC DATA: ENHANCING THE U.S. EPA DEVELOPMENTAL NEUROTOXICITY TESTING GUIDELINES

EPA Science Inventory

SUMMARY: Mechanistic data should provide the Agency with a more accurate basis to estimate risk than do the Agency’s default assumptions (10x uncertainty factors, etc.), thereby improving risk assessment decisions. NTD is providing mechanistic data for toxicant effects on two maj...

Improving value of travel time savings estimation for more effective transportation project evaluation : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

The daily commute to a job is a cost of working. Workers may share stories about the extent or rigors of their commute, or they may enjoy the time with reading, music, or drive-time radio personalities. For any trip, many factors contribute to a trav...

Time estimation as a secondary task to measure workload: Summary of research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hart, S. G.; Mcpherson, D.; Loomis, L. L.

1978-01-01

Actively produced intervals of time were found to increase in length and variability, whereas retrospectively produced intervals decreased in length although they also increased in variability with the addition of a variety of flight-related tasks. If pilots counted aloud while making a production, however, the impact of concurrent activity was minimized, at least for the moderately demanding primary tasks that were selected. The effects of feedback on estimation accuracy and consistency were greatly enhanced if a counting or tapping production technique was used. This compares with the minimal effect that feedback had when no overt timekeeping technique was used. Actively made verbal estimates of sessions filled with different activities performed during the interval were increased. Retrospectively made verbal estimates, however, increased in length as the amount and complexity of activities performed during the interval were increased.

Globally efficient non-parametric inference of average treatment effects by empirical balancing calibration weighting

PubMed Central

Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Yam, Sheung Chi Phillip; Zhang, Zheng

2015-01-01

Summary The estimation of average treatment effects based on observational data is extremely important in practice and has been studied by generations of statisticians under different frameworks. Existing globally efficient estimators require non-parametric estimation of a propensity score function, an outcome regression function or both, but their performance can be poor in practical sample sizes. Without explicitly estimating either functions, we consider a wide class calibration weights constructed to attain an exact three-way balance of the moments of observed covariates among the treated, the control, and the combined group. The wide class includes exponential tilting, empirical likelihood and generalized regression as important special cases, and extends survey calibration estimators to different statistical problems and with important distinctions. Global semiparametric efficiency for the estimation of average treatment effects is established for this general class of calibration estimators. The results show that efficiency can be achieved by solely balancing the covariate distributions without resorting to direct estimation of propensity score or outcome regression function. We also propose a consistent estimator for the efficient asymptotic variance, which does not involve additional functional estimation of either the propensity score or the outcome regression functions. The proposed variance estimator outperforms existing estimators that require a direct approximation of the efficient influence function. PMID:27346982

Summary estimates of forest resources on unreserved lands of the Ketchikan inventory unit, Tongass National Forest, southeast Alaska, 1998.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. van Hees

2001-01-01

Summary estimates are presented of forest resource area, timber volume, and growth and mortality of timber on unreserved national forest land in the Ketchikan inventory unit of the Tongass National Forest. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis crews collected inventory data from 1995 to 1998. Productive forest land area (timberland) was...

Summary estimates of forest resources on unreserved lands of the Chatham inventory unit, Tongass National Forest, southeast Alaska, 1998.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. van Hees

2001-01-01

Summary estimates are presented of forest resource area, timber volume, and growth and mortality of timber on unreserved national forest land in the Chatham inventory unit of the Tongass National Forest. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis crews collected inventory data from 1995 to 2000. Productive forest land area (timberland) was...

Summary estimates of forest resources on unreserved lands of the Stikine inventory unit, Tongass National Forest, southeast Alaska, 1998.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. van Hees

2001-01-01

Summary estimates are presented of forest resource area, timber volume, and growth and mortality of timber on unreserved national forest land in the Stikine inventory unit of the Tongass National Forest. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, crews collected inventory data from 1995 to 1998. Productive forest land area (timberland) was...

Exposure time independent summary statistics for assessment of drug dependent cell line growth inhibition.

PubMed

Falgreen, Steffen; Laursen, Maria Bach; Bødker, Julie Støve; Kjeldsen, Malene Krag; Schmitz, Alexander; Nyegaard, Mette; Johnsen, Hans Erik; Dybkær, Karen; Bøgsted, Martin

2014-06-05

In vitro generated dose-response curves of human cancer cell lines are widely used to develop new therapeutics. The curves are summarised by simplified statistics that ignore the conventionally used dose-response curves' dependency on drug exposure time and growth kinetics. This may lead to suboptimal exploitation of data and biased conclusions on the potential of the drug in question. Therefore we set out to improve the dose-response assessments by eliminating the impact of time dependency. First, a mathematical model for drug induced cell growth inhibition was formulated and used to derive novel dose-response curves and improved summary statistics that are independent of time under the proposed model. Next, a statistical analysis workflow for estimating the improved statistics was suggested consisting of 1) nonlinear regression models for estimation of cell counts and doubling times, 2) isotonic regression for modelling the suggested dose-response curves, and 3) resampling based method for assessing variation of the novel summary statistics. We document that conventionally used summary statistics for dose-response experiments depend on time so that fast growing cell lines compared to slowly growing ones are considered overly sensitive. The adequacy of the mathematical model is tested for doxorubicin and found to fit real data to an acceptable degree. Dose-response data from the NCI60 drug screen were used to illustrate the time dependency and demonstrate an adjustment correcting for it. The applicability of the workflow was illustrated by simulation and application on a doxorubicin growth inhibition screen. The simulations show that under the proposed mathematical model the suggested statistical workflow results in unbiased estimates of the time independent summary statistics. Variance estimates of the novel summary statistics are used to conclude that the doxorubicin screen covers a significant diverse range of responses ensuring it is useful for biological interpretations. Time independent summary statistics may aid the understanding of drugs' action mechanism on tumour cells and potentially renew previous drug sensitivity evaluation studies.

Exposure time independent summary statistics for assessment of drug dependent cell line growth inhibition

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In vitro generated dose-response curves of human cancer cell lines are widely used to develop new therapeutics. The curves are summarised by simplified statistics that ignore the conventionally used dose-response curves’ dependency on drug exposure time and growth kinetics. This may lead to suboptimal exploitation of data and biased conclusions on the potential of the drug in question. Therefore we set out to improve the dose-response assessments by eliminating the impact of time dependency. Results First, a mathematical model for drug induced cell growth inhibition was formulated and used to derive novel dose-response curves and improved summary statistics that are independent of time under the proposed model. Next, a statistical analysis workflow for estimating the improved statistics was suggested consisting of 1) nonlinear regression models for estimation of cell counts and doubling times, 2) isotonic regression for modelling the suggested dose-response curves, and 3) resampling based method for assessing variation of the novel summary statistics. We document that conventionally used summary statistics for dose-response experiments depend on time so that fast growing cell lines compared to slowly growing ones are considered overly sensitive. The adequacy of the mathematical model is tested for doxorubicin and found to fit real data to an acceptable degree. Dose-response data from the NCI60 drug screen were used to illustrate the time dependency and demonstrate an adjustment correcting for it. The applicability of the workflow was illustrated by simulation and application on a doxorubicin growth inhibition screen. The simulations show that under the proposed mathematical model the suggested statistical workflow results in unbiased estimates of the time independent summary statistics. Variance estimates of the novel summary statistics are used to conclude that the doxorubicin screen covers a significant diverse range of responses ensuring it is useful for biological interpretations. Conclusion Time independent summary statistics may aid the understanding of drugs’ action mechanism on tumour cells and potentially renew previous drug sensitivity evaluation studies. PMID:24902483

Descriptive Summaries of the Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, Army Appropriation. Supporting Data FY 1994, Budget Estimates Submitted to Congress, April 1993

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-04-01

determining effective group functioning, leader-group interaction , and decision making; (2) factors that determine effective, low error human performance...infectious disease and biological defense vaccines and drugs , vision, neurotxins, neurochemistry, molecular neurobiology, neurodegenrative diseases...Potential Rotor/Comprehensive Analysis Model for Rotor Aerodynamics-Johnson Aeronautics (FPR/CAMRAD-JA) code to predict Blade Vortex Interaction (BVI

ESTIMATING PERSON-CENTERED TREATMENT (PeT) EFFECTS USING INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES: AN APPLICATION TO EVALUATING PROSTATE CANCER TREATMENTS

PubMed Central

BASU, ANIRBAN

2014-01-01

SUMMARY This paper builds on the methods of local instrumental variables developed by Heckman and Vytlacil (1999, 2001, 2005) to estimate person-centered treatment (PeT) effects that are conditioned on the person’s observed characteristics and averaged over the potential conditional distribution of unobserved characteristics that lead them to their observed treatment choices. PeT effects are more individualized than conditional treatment effects from a randomized setting with the same observed characteristics. PeT effects can be easily aggregated to construct any of the mean treatment effect parameters and, more importantly, are well suited to comprehend individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity. The paper presents the theory behind PeT effects, and applies it to study the variation in individual-level comparative effects of prostate cancer treatments on overall survival and costs. PMID:25620844

Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Jaeyoung; Bang, Yejin; Lee, Won Jin

2016-02-01

There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed on studies published up to March 2015 on the association between nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk. The summary standardized incidence ratio (SIR), standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effect model of meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed by study quality. Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis, covering 36 nuclear power stations in 10 countries. Overall, summary estimates showed no significant increased thyroid cancer incidence or mortality among residents living near nuclear power plants (summary SIR=0.98; 95% CI 0.87-1.11, summary SMR=0.80; 95% CI 0.62-1.04). The pooled estimates did not reveal different patterns of risk by gender, exposure definition, or reference population. However, sensitivity analysis by exposure definition showed that living less than 20 km from nuclear power plants was associated with a significant increase in the risk of thyroid cancer in well-designed studies (summary OR=1.75; 95% CI 1.17-2.64). Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well-designed future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EOS Terra: Mission Status Constellation MOWG

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mantziaras, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

This EOS Terra Mission Status Constellation MOWG will discuss mission summary; spacecraft subsystems summary, recent and planned activities; inclination adjust maneuvers, conjunction history, propellant usage and lifetime estimate; and end of mission plan.

Do clinicians want recommendations? A multi-center study comparing evidence summaries with and without GRADE recommendations.

PubMed

Neumann, Ignacio; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Vandvik, Per Olav; Agoritsas, Thomas; Mas, Gemma; Akl, Elie A; Brignardello-Petersen, Romina; Emparanza, Jose; McCullagh, Lauren; De Sitio, Catherine; McGinn, Thomas; Almodaimegh, Hind; Almodaimegh, Khalid; Rivera, Solange; Rojas, Luis; Stirnemann, Jérôme; Irani, Jihad; Hlais, Sani; Mustafa, Reem; Bdair, Fadi; Aly, Abdelrahman; Kristiansen, Annette; Izcovich, Ariel; Ramirez, Anggie; Brozek, Jan; Guyatt, Gordon; Schünemann, Holger J

2018-03-09

Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines provide recommendations to assist clinicians in decision-making and to reduce the gap between best current research evidence and clinical practice. However, some argue that providing pre-appraised evidence summaries alone, rather than recommendations, is more appropriate. To evaluate clinicians' preferences, understanding of the evidence and intended course of action in response to evidence summaries with and without recommendations. We included practicing clinicians attending educational sessions across 10 countries. Clinicians were randomized to receive relevant clinical scenarios supported by research evidence of low or very-low certainty, and accompanied by either strong or weak recommendations developed with the GRADE system. Within each group, participants were further randomized to receive the recommendation plus the corresponding evidence summary or the evidence summary alone. We evaluated participants' preferences and understanding for the presentation strategy as well as their intended course of action. 189/219 (86%) and 201/248 (81%) participants preferred having recommendations accompanying evidence summaries for both strong and weak recommendations, respectively. Across all scenarios less than half of participants correctly interpreted information provided in the evidences summaries (e.g. estimates of effect, certainty in the research evidence). Presence of a recommendation resulted in a more appropriate intended course of action for two scenarios involving strong recommendations. Evidence summaries alone are not enough to impact clinicians' course of action. Clinicians clearly prefer having recommendations accompanying evidence summaries in the context of low or very-low certainty of evidence (Trial registration NCT02006017). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term recovery of a Mountain Stream from Clearcut Logging: The Effects of Forest Succession on Benthic Invertebrate Community Structure

Treesearch

Michael K. Stone; J. Bruce Wallace

1998-01-01

Summary1. Changes in benthic invertebrate community structure following 16 years of forest succession after logging were examined by estimating benthic invertebrate abundance, biomass and secondary production in streams draining a forested reference and a recovering clear-cut catchment. Benthic invertebrate abundance was three times higher,...

On the degrees of freedom of reduced-rank estimators in multivariate regression

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, A.; Chen, K.; Wang, N.; Zhu, J.

2015-01-01

Summary We study the effective degrees of freedom of a general class of reduced-rank estimators for multivariate regression in the framework of Stein's unbiased risk estimation. A finite-sample exact unbiased estimator is derived that admits a closed-form expression in terms of the thresholded singular values of the least-squares solution and hence is readily computable. The results continue to hold in the high-dimensional setting where both the predictor and the response dimensions may be larger than the sample size. The derived analytical form facilitates the investigation of theoretical properties and provides new insights into the empirical behaviour of the degrees of freedom. In particular, we examine the differences and connections between the proposed estimator and a commonly-used naive estimator. The use of the proposed estimator leads to efficient and accurate prediction risk estimation and model selection, as demonstrated by simulation studies and a data example. PMID:26702155

The 2002 RPA Plot Summary database users manual

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles; John S. Vissage; W. Brad Smith

2004-01-01

Describes the structure of the RPA 2002 Plot Summary database and provides information on generating estimates of forest statistics from these data. The RPA 2002 Plot Summary database provides a consistent framework for storing forest inventory data across all ownerships across the entire United States. The data represents the best available data as of October 2001....

Methods of adjusting the stable estimates of fertility for the effects of mortality decline.

PubMed

Abou-Gamrah, H

1976-03-01

Summary The paper shows how stable population methods, based on the age structure and the rate of increase, may be used to estimate the demographic measures of a quasi-stable population. After a discussion of known methods for adjusting the stable estimates to allow for the effects of mortality decline two new methods are presented, the application of which requires less information. The first method does not need any supplementary information, and the second method requires an estimate of the difference between the last two five-year intercensal rates of increase, i.e. five times the annual change of the rate of increase during the last ten years. For these new methods we do not need to know the onset year of mortality decline as in the Coale-Demeny method, or a long series of rates of increase as in Zachariah's method.

Prevalence and Frequency of Heterosexual Anal Intercourse Among Young People: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Owen, Branwen N; Brock, Patrick M; Butler, Ailsa R; Pickles, Michael; Brisson, Marc; Baggaley, Rebecca F; Boily, Marie-Claude

2015-07-01

We aim to assess if heterosexual anal intercourse (AI) is commonly practiced and how frequently it is practiced by young people. We searched PubMed for articles published 1975 to July 2014 reporting data on the proportion of young people (mean age <25) practicing heterosexual AI (AI prevalence) and on number of AI acts (AI frequency). Stratified random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to produce summary estimates and assess the influence of participant and study characteristics on AI prevalence. Eighty-three and thirteen of the 136 included articles reported data on lifetime AI prevalence and monthly AI frequency, respectively. Estimates were heterogenous. Overall summary estimates of lifetime AI prevalence were 22 % (95 % confidence interval 20-24) among sexually active young people, with no statistically significant differences by gender, continent or age. Prevalence increased significantly with confidentiality of interview method and, among males and in Europe, by survey year. Prevalence did not significantly differ by recall period. An estimated 3-24 % of all reported sex acts were AI. Reported heterosexual AI is common but variable among young people worldwide. To fully understand its impact on STI spread, more and better quality data on frequency of unprotected AI, and trends over time are required.

Quantifying Cancer Risk from Radiation.

PubMed

Keil, Alexander P; Richardson, David B

2017-12-06

Complex statistical models fitted to data from studies of atomic bomb survivors are used to estimate the human health effects of ionizing radiation exposures. We describe and illustrate an approach to estimate population risks from ionizing radiation exposure that relaxes many assumptions about radiation-related mortality. The approach draws on developments in methods for causal inference. The results offer a different way to quantify radiation's effects and show that conventional estimates of the population burden of excess cancer at high radiation doses are driven strongly by projecting outside the range of current data. Summary results obtained using the proposed approach are similar in magnitude to those obtained using conventional methods, although estimates of radiation-related excess cancers differ for many age, sex, and dose groups. At low doses relevant to typical exposures, the strength of evidence in data is surprisingly weak. Statements regarding human health effects at low doses rely strongly on the use of modeling assumptions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Strategies for improving approximate Bayesian computation tests for synchronous diversification.

PubMed

Overcast, Isaac; Bagley, Justin C; Hickerson, Michael J

2017-08-24

Estimating the variability in isolation times across co-distributed taxon pairs that may have experienced the same allopatric isolating mechanism is a core goal of comparative phylogeography. The use of hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and coalescent models to infer temporal dynamics of lineage co-diversification has been a contentious topic in recent years. Key issues that remain unresolved include the choice of an appropriate prior on the number of co-divergence events (Ψ), as well as the optimal strategies for data summarization. Through simulation-based cross validation we explore the impact of the strategy for sorting summary statistics and the choice of prior on Ψ on the estimation of co-divergence variability. We also introduce a new setting (β) that can potentially improve estimation of Ψ by enforcing a minimal temporal difference between pulses of co-divergence. We apply this new method to three empirical datasets: one dataset each of co-distributed taxon pairs of Panamanian frogs and freshwater fishes, and a large set of Neotropical butterfly sister-taxon pairs. We demonstrate that the choice of prior on Ψ has little impact on inference, but that sorting summary statistics yields substantially more reliable estimates of co-divergence variability despite violations of assumptions about exchangeability. We find the implementation of β improves estimation of Ψ, with improvement being most dramatic given larger numbers of taxon pairs. We find equivocal support for synchronous co-divergence for both of the Panamanian groups, but we find considerable support for asynchronous divergence among the Neotropical butterflies. Our simulation experiments demonstrate that using sorted summary statistics results in improved estimates of the variability in divergence times, whereas the choice of hyperprior on Ψ has negligible effect. Additionally, we demonstrate that estimating the number of pulses of co-divergence across co-distributed taxon-pairs is improved by applying a flexible buffering regime over divergence times. This improves the correlation between Ψ and the true variability in isolation times and allows for more meaningful interpretation of this hyperparameter. This will allow for more accurate identification of the number of temporally distinct pulses of co-divergence that generated the diversification pattern of a given regional assemblage of sister-taxon-pairs.

Dealing with missing standard deviation and mean values in meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: a systematic review.

PubMed

Weir, Christopher J; Butcher, Isabella; Assi, Valentina; Lewis, Stephanie C; Murray, Gordon D; Langhorne, Peter; Brady, Marian C

2018-03-07

Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results. Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses.

Data and Summaries for Catalytic Destruction of a Surrogate Organic Hazardous Air Pollutant as a Potential Co-benefit for Coal-Fired Selective Catalytic Reduction Systems

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Table 1 summarizes and explanis the Operating Conditions of the SCR Reactor used in the Benzene-Destruction.Table 2 summarizes and explains the Experimental Design and Test Results.Table 3 summarizes and explains the Estimates for Individual Effects and Cross Effects Obtained from the Linear Regression Models for Destruction of C6H6 and Reduction of NO.Fig. 1 shows the Down-flow SCR reactor system in detail.Fig. 2 shows the graphical summary of the Effect of the inlet C6H6 concentration to the SCR reactor on the destruction of C6H6.Fig.3 shows the summary of Carbon mass balance for C6H6 destruction promoted by the V2O5-WO3/TiO2 catalyst.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Lee , C., Y. Zhao, S. Lu, and W.R. Stevens. Catalytic Destruction of a Surrogate Organic Hazardous Air Polutant as a Potential Co-benefit for Coal-fired Selective Catalyst Reduction Systems. AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY. American Chemical Society, Washington, DC, USA, 30(3): 2240-2247, (2016).

Practical considerations for estimating clinical trial accrual periods: application to a multi-center effectiveness study

PubMed Central

Carter, Rickey E; Sonne, Susan C; Brady, Kathleen T

2005-01-01

Background Adequate participant recruitment is vital to the conduct of a clinical trial. Projected recruitment rates are often over-estimated, and the time to recruit the target population (accrual period) is often under-estimated. Methods This report illustrates three approaches to estimating the accrual period and applies the methods to a multi-center, randomized, placebo controlled trial undergoing development. Results Incorporating known sources of accrual variation can yield a more justified estimate of the accrual period. Simulation studies can be incorporated into a clinical trial's planning phase to provide estimates for key accrual summaries including the mean and standard deviation of the accrual period. Conclusion The accrual period of a clinical trial should be carefully considered, and the allocation of sufficient time for participant recruitment is a fundamental aspect of planning a clinical trial. PMID:15796782

MEASUREMENT ERROR ESTIMATION AND CORRECTION METHODS TO MINIMIZE EXPOSURE MISCLASSIFICATION IN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES: PROJECT SUMMARY

EPA Science Inventory

This project summary highlights recent findings from research undertaken to develop improved methods to assess potential human health risks related to drinking water disinfection byproduct (DBP) exposures.

Functional mixed effects spectral analysis

PubMed Central

KRAFTY, ROBERT T.; HALL, MARTICA; GUO, WENSHENG

2011-01-01

SUMMARY In many experiments, time series data can be collected from multiple units and multiple time series segments can be collected from the same unit. This article introduces a mixed effects Cramér spectral representation which can be used to model the effects of design covariates on the second-order power spectrum while accounting for potential correlations among the time series segments collected from the same unit. The transfer function is composed of a deterministic component to account for the population-average effects and a random component to account for the unit-specific deviations. The resulting log-spectrum has a functional mixed effects representation where both the fixed effects and random effects are functions in the frequency domain. It is shown that, when the replicate-specific spectra are smooth, the log-periodograms converge to a functional mixed effects model. A data-driven iterative estimation procedure is offered for the periodic smoothing spline estimation of the fixed effects, penalized estimation of the functional covariance of the random effects, and unit-specific random effects prediction via the best linear unbiased predictor. PMID:26855437

Summary of methods for calculating dynamic lateral stability and response and for estimating aerodynamic stability derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O

1952-01-01

A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Detailed estimation methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic and supersonic speed conditions.

Endotoxin exposure and lung cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the published literature on agriculture and cotton textile workers.

PubMed

Lenters, Virissa; Basinas, Ioannis; Beane-Freeman, Laura; Boffetta, Paolo; Checkoway, Harvey; Coggon, David; Portengen, Lützen; Sim, Malcolm; Wouters, Inge M; Heederik, Dick; Vermeulen, Roel

2010-04-01

To examine the association between exposure to endotoxins and lung cancer risk by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies of workers in the cotton textile and agricultural industries; industries known for high exposure levels of endotoxins. Risk estimates were extracted from studies published before 2009 that met predefined quality criteria, including 8 cohort, 1 case-cohort, and 2 case-control studies of cotton textile industry workers, and 15 cohort and 2 case-control studies of agricultural workers. Summary risk estimates were calculated using random effects meta-analyses. Potential sources of heterogeneity were explored through subgroup analyses. The summary risk of lung cancer was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.90) for textile workers and 0.62 (0.52-0.75) for agricultural workers. The relative risk of lung cancer was below 1.0 for most subgroups defined according to sex, study design, outcome, smoking adjustment, and geographic area. Two studies provided quantitative estimates of endotoxin exposure and both studies tended to support a dose-dependent protective effect of endotoxins on lung cancer risk. Despite several limitations, this meta-analysis based on high-quality studies adds weight to the hypothesis that occupational exposure to endotoxin in cotton textile production and agriculture is protective against lung cancer.

Evaluating Candidate Principal Surrogate Endpoints

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Peter B.; Hudgens, Michael G.

2009-01-01

Summary Frangakis and Rubin (2002, Biometrics 58, 21–29) proposed a new definition of a surrogate endpoint (a “principal” surrogate) based on causal effects. We introduce an estimand for evaluating a principal surrogate, the causal effect predictiveness (CEP) surface, which quantifies how well causal treatment effects on the biomarker predict causal treatment effects on the clinical endpoint. Although the CEP surface is not identifiable due to missing potential outcomes, it can be identified by incorporating a baseline covariate(s) that predicts the biomarker. Given case–cohort sampling of such a baseline predictor and the biomarker in a large blinded randomized clinical trial, we develop an estimated likelihood method for estimating the CEP surface. This estimation assesses the “surrogate value” of the biomarker for reliably predicting clinical treatment effects for the same or similar setting as the trial. A CEP surface plot provides a way to compare the surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. The approach is illustrated by the problem of assessing an immune response to a vaccine as a surrogate endpoint for infection. PMID:18363776

Prenatal ambient air pollution exposure and the risk of stillbirth: systematic review and meta-analysis of the empirical evidence.

PubMed

Siddika, Nazeeba; Balogun, Hamudat A; Amegah, Adeladza K; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2016-09-01

Individual studies on the relations between ambient air pollution and the risk of stillbirth have provided contradictory results. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the existing evidence. We conducted a systematic search of three databases: PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science, from their time of inception to mid-April, 2015. Original studies of any epidemiological design were included. Data from eligible studies were extracted by two investigators. To calculate the summary effect estimates (EE), the random effects model was used with their corresponding 95% CI. 13 studies met the inclusion criteria. Although not reaching statistical significance, all the summary effect estimates for the risk of stillbirth were systematically elevated in relation to mean prenatal exposure to NO2 per 10 ppb (EE=1.066, 95% CI 0.965 to 1.178, n=3), CO per 0.4 ppm (EE=1.025, 95% CI 0.985 to 1.066, n=3), SO2 per 3 ppb (EE=1.022, 95% CI 0.984 to 1.062, n=3,), PM2.5 per 4 μg/m(3) (EE=1.021, 95% CI 0.996 to 1.046, n=2) and PM10 per 10 μg/m(3) (EE=1.014, 95% CI 0.948 to 1.085, n=2). The effect estimates for SO2, CO, PM10 and O3 were highest for the third trimester exposure. Two time series studies used a lag term of not more than 6 days preceding stillbirth, and both found increased effect estimates for some pollutants. The body of evidence suggests that exposure to ambient air pollution increases the risk of stillbirth. Further studies are needed to strengthen the evidence. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

Optimal joint detection and estimation that maximizes ROC-type curves

PubMed Central

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K.

2017-01-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation. PMID:27093544

Optimal Joint Detection and Estimation That Maximizes ROC-Type Curves.

PubMed

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K

2016-09-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation.

Meta-analysis of benzene exposure and non-Hodgkin lymphoma: biases could mask an important association

PubMed Central

Steinmaus, C; Smith, A H; Jones, R M; Smith, M T

2015-01-01

Objectives Benzene is a widely recognised cause of leukaemia but its association with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) is less well established. The goal of this project is to review the current published literature on this association. Methods We performed a meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies of benzene exposure and NHL and a meta-analysis of NHL and refinery work, a potential source of benzene exposure. Results In 22 studies of benzene exposure, the summary relative risk for NHL was 1.22 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.47; one-sided p value = 0.01). When studies that likely included unexposed subjects in the “exposed” group were excluded, the summary relative risk increased to 1.49 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.97, n = 13), and when studies based solely on self-reported work history were excluded, the relative risk rose to 2.12 (95% CI 1.11 to 4.02, n = 6). In refinery workers, the summary relative risk for NHL in all 21 studies was 1.21 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.46; p = 0.02). When adjusted for the healthy worker effect, this relative risk estimate increased to 1.42 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.69). Conclusions The finding of elevated relative risks in studies of both benzene exposure and refinery work provides further evidence that benzene exposure causes NHL. In addition, the finding of increased relative risks after removing studies that included unexposed or lesser exposed workers in “exposed” cohorts, and increased relative risk estimates after adjusting for the healthy worker effect, suggest that effects of benzene on NHL might be missed in occupational studies if these biases are not accounted for. PMID:18417556

Comparison of Brief Summary Formats Through a Health Literacy Lens.

PubMed

Sharp, Michele L; Hall, Lori; Eleftherion, Anthony; Simpson, Katherine; Neuhauser, Linda

2018-01-01

Print pharmaceutical advertisements in the United States require inclusion of a brief summary of side effects, warnings, precautions, and contraindications from the labeling. The full package insert, which sponsors have traditionally used to fulfill the brief summary requirement, does not adhere to health literacy best practices, limiting its value to consumers. This study compared the understandability and usability of brief summaries in 3 formats designed to be more consumer friendly. Three brief summary formats were tested: (1) 2-column "Question and Answer"; (2) "Prescription Drug Facts Box," similar to current US over-the-counter drug facts labeling; and (3) "Health Literacy," based on clear communication principles. Researchers evaluated the formats using the Suitability Assessment of Materials (SAM) tool and conducted structured, scripted, one-on-one interviews (usability tests) with participants with estimated low to average education levels. This research was replicated across 2 therapeutic areas (type 2 diabetes and plaque psoriasis). SAM scores showed that the Health Literacy format outperformed the Question and Answer format and the Prescription Drug Facts Box format in both therapeutic areas, with both Health Literacy brief summaries rated on the SAM as "superior." Qualitative usability tests supported the SAM findings, with the Health Literacy format preferred consistently over the Question and Answer format, and more often than not over the Prescription Drug Facts Box format. Sponsors can employ a user-tested Health Literacy format to improve the understandability and usability of brief summaries with patients.

School Improvement Grants: Implementation and Effectiveness. Executive Summary. NCEE 2017-4012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dragoset, Lisa; Thomas, Jaime; Herrmann, Mariesa; Deke, John; James-Burdumy, Susanne; Graczewski, Cheryl; Boyle, Andrea; Upton, Rachel; Tanenbaum, Courtney; Giffin, Jessica

2017-01-01

In response to the recession that began in 2007, the U.S. Congress passed, and President Barack Obama signed into law, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Pub. Law 111-5). At an estimated cost of $831 billion, this economic stimulus package sought to save and create jobs, provide temporary relief to those adversely affected by the…

GRADE guidelines: 10. Considering resource use and rating the quality of economic evidence.

PubMed

Brunetti, Massimo; Shemilt, Ian; Pregno, Silvia; Vale, Luke; Oxman, Andrew D; Lord, Joanne; Sisk, Jane; Ruiz, Francis; Hill, Suzanne; Guyatt, Gordon H; Jaeschke, Roman; Helfand, Mark; Harbour, Robin; Davoli, Marina; Amato, Laura; Liberati, Alessandro; Schünemann, Holger J

2013-02-01

In this article, we describe how to include considerations about resource utilization when making recommendations according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. We focus on challenges with rating the confidence in effect estimates (quality of evidence) and incorporating resource use into evidence profiles and Summary of Findings (SoF) tables. GRADE recommends that important differences in resource use between alternative management strategies should be included along with other important outcomes in the evidence profile and SoF table. Key steps in considering resources in making recommendations with GRADE are the identification of items of resource use that may differ between alternative management strategies and that are potentially important to decision makers, finding evidence for the differences in resource use, making judgments regarding confidence in effect estimates using the same criteria used for health outcomes, and valuing the resource use in terms of costs for the specific setting for which recommendations are being made. With our framework, decision makers will have access to concise summaries of recommendations, including ratings of the quality of economic evidence, and better understand the implications for clinical decision making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States : revised estimates for 1995-97 and summary estimates for 1925-97

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-01

The tables that follow present new estimates of fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States for 1997 and revised estimates for 199596. These estimates, which cover net stocks of privately owned and government owned durable equipment an...

LD Hub: a centralized database and web interface to perform LD score regression that maximizes the potential of summary level GWAS data for SNP heritability and genetic correlation analysis.

PubMed

Zheng, Jie; Erzurumluoglu, A Mesut; Elsworth, Benjamin L; Kemp, John P; Howe, Laurence; Haycock, Philip C; Hemani, Gibran; Tansey, Katherine; Laurin, Charles; Pourcain, Beate St; Warrington, Nicole M; Finucane, Hilary K; Price, Alkes L; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan K; Anttila, Verneri; Paternoster, Lavinia; Gaunt, Tom R; Evans, David M; Neale, Benjamin M

2017-01-15

LD score regression is a reliable and efficient method of using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary-level results data to estimate the SNP heritability of complex traits and diseases, partition this heritability into functional categories, and estimate the genetic correlation between different phenotypes. Because the method relies on summary level results data, LD score regression is computationally tractable even for very large sample sizes. However, publicly available GWAS summary-level data are typically stored in different databases and have different formats, making it difficult to apply LD score regression to estimate genetic correlations across many different traits simultaneously. In this manuscript, we describe LD Hub - a centralized database of summary-level GWAS results for 173 diseases/traits from different publicly available resources/consortia and a web interface that automates the LD score regression analysis pipeline. To demonstrate functionality and validate our software, we replicated previously reported LD score regression analyses of 49 traits/diseases using LD Hub; and estimated SNP heritability and the genetic correlation across the different phenotypes. We also present new results obtained by uploading a recent atopic dermatitis GWAS meta-analysis to examine the genetic correlation between the condition and other potentially related traits. In response to the growing availability of publicly accessible GWAS summary-level results data, our database and the accompanying web interface will ensure maximal uptake of the LD score regression methodology, provide a useful database for the public dissemination of GWAS results, and provide a method for easily screening hundreds of traits for overlapping genetic aetiologies. The web interface and instructions for using LD Hub are available at http://ldsc.broadinstitute.org/ CONTACT: jie.zheng@bristol.ac.ukSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Testing survey-based methods for rapid monitoring of child mortality, with implications for summary birth history data.

PubMed

Brady, Eoghan; Hill, Kenneth

2017-01-01

Under-five mortality estimates are increasingly used in low and middle income countries to target interventions and measure performance against global development goals. Two new methods to rapidly estimate under-5 mortality based on Summary Birth Histories (SBH) were described in a previous paper and tested with data available. This analysis tests the methods using data appropriate to each method from 5 countries that lack vital registration systems. SBH data are collected across many countries through censuses and surveys, and indirect methods often rely upon their quality to estimate mortality rates. The Birth History Imputation method imputes data from a recent Full Birth History (FBH) onto the birth, death and age distribution of the SBH to produce estimates based on the resulting distribution of child mortality. DHS FBHs and MICS SBHs are used for all five countries. In the implementation, 43 of 70 estimates are within 20% of validation estimates (61%). Mean Absolute Relative Error is 17.7.%. 1 of 7 countries produces acceptable estimates. The Cohort Change method considers the differences in births and deaths between repeated Summary Birth Histories at 1 or 2-year intervals to estimate the mortality rate in that period. SBHs are taken from Brazil's PNAD Surveys 2004-2011 and validated against IGME estimates. 2 of 10 estimates are within 10% of validation estimates. Mean absolute relative error is greater than 100%. Appropriate testing of these new methods demonstrates that they do not produce sufficiently good estimates based on the data available. We conclude this is due to the poor quality of most SBH data included in the study. This has wider implications for the next round of censuses and future household surveys across many low- and middle- income countries.

One-way versus two-way text messaging on improving medication adherence: meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Wald, David S; Butt, Shahena; Bestwick, Jonathan P

2015-10-01

Mobile telephone text messaging is a simple potential solution to the failure to take medications as directed. There is uncertainty over the effectiveness of 1-way text messaging (sending text message reminders only) compared with 2-way text messaging (sending reminders and receiving replies confirming whether medication has been taken) as a means of improving medication adherence. A meta-analysis of 8 randomized trials (1994 patients) that tested the effectiveness of text messaging on medication adherence was performed. The trials were divided into 2 groups: trials using 1-way text messaging versus no text messaging and trials using 2-way text messaging versus no text messaging. The summary estimates of the effect of the 2 methods of text messaging (1-way or 2-way) were compared. The summary relative risk estimate was 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.11) for 1-way text messaging and 1.23 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.35) for 2-way text messaging. The difference in effect between the 2 methods was statistically significant (P = .007). Two-way text messaging is associated with substantially improved medication adherence compared with 1-way text messaging. This has important implications in the provision of mobile-based messaging in the management of patients taking medication for the prevention of chronic disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prenatal folic acid and risk of asthma in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Crider, Krista S; Cordero, Amy M; Qi, Yan Ping; Mulinare, Joseph; Dowling, Nicole F; Berry, Robert J

2016-01-01

Background Childhood asthma has become a critical public health problem because of its high morbidity and increasing prevalence. The impact of nutrition and other exposures during pregnancy on long-term health and development of children has been of increasing interest. Objective We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association of folate and folic acid intake during pregnancy and risk of asthma and other allergic outcomes in children. Design We performed a systematic search of 8 electronic databases for articles that examined the association between prenatal folate or folic acid exposure and risk of asthma and other allergic outcomes (eg, allergy, eczema, and atopic dermatitis) in childhood. We performed a meta-analysis by using a random-effects model to derive a summary risk estimate of studies with similar exposure timing, exposure assessment, and outcomes. Results Our meta-analysis provided no evidence of an association between maternal folic acid supplement use (compared with no use) in the prepregnancy period through the first trimester and asthma in childhood (summary risk estimate: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.78, 1.30). Because of substantial heterogeneity in exposures and outcomes, it was not possible to generate summary measures for other folate indicators (eg, blood folate concentrations) and asthma or allergy-related outcomes; however, the preponderance of primary risk estimates was not elevated. Conclusions Our findings do not support an association between periconceptional folic acid supplementation and increased risk of asthma in children. However, because of the limited number and types of studies in the literature, additional research is needed. PMID:24004895

Pregnancy and HIV disease progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Calvert, Clara; Ronsmans, Carine

2015-02-01

To assess whether pregnancy accelerates HIV disease progression. Studies comparing progression to HIV-related illness, low CD4 count, AIDS-defining illness, HIV-related death, or any death in HIV-infected pregnant and non-pregnant women were included. Relative risks (RR) for each outcome were combined using random effects meta-analysis and were stratified by antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability. 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. Pregnancy was not associated with progression to HIV-related illness [summary RR: 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66-2.61], AIDS-defining illness (summary RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.74-1.25) or mortality (summary RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.62-1.53), but there was an association with low CD4 counts (summary RR: 1.41, 95% CI: 0.99-2.02) and HIV-related death (summary RR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.06-2.57). In settings where ART was available, there was no evidence that pregnancy accelerated progress to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses, death and drop in CD4 count. In settings without ART availability, effect estimates were consistent with pregnancy increasing the risk of progression to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses and HIV-related or all-cause mortality, but there were too few studies to draw meaningful conclusions. In the absence of ART, pregnancy is associated with small but appreciable increases in the risk of several negative HIV outcomes, but the evidence is too weak to draw firm conclusions. When ART is available, the effects of pregnancy on HIV disease progression are attenuated and there is little reason to discourage healthy HIV-infected women who desire to become pregnant from doing so. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Green tea and liver cancer risk: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies in Asian populations.

PubMed

Huang, Ya-Qing; Lu, Xin; Min, Han; Wu, Qian-Qian; Shi, Xiao-Ting; Bian, Kang-Qi; Zou, Xiao-Ping

2016-01-01

The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate whether an association existed between green tea consumption and the risk for liver cancer in prospective cohort studies in Asian populations. Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and the Chinese Bio-medicine Database published before April 2015. Study-specific risk estimates for the highest versus non- or lowest and increment of daily cup of green tea consumption levels were combined based on fixed- or random-effects models. STATA 11.0 (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA) software was used for statistical analysis. Nine prospective cohort articles involving 465,274 participants and 3694 cases of liver cancer from China, Japan, and Singapore were included. The summary relative risk (RR) indicated a significant association between the highest green tea consumption and reduced risk for liver cancer (summary RR, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81-0.97). However, no statistically significant association was observed when analyzing daily consumption of one cup (summary RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-1.00). When stratified by sex, the protective effect of green tea consumption on risk for liver cancer was observed only in the group of women (summary RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64-0.96), but not in men (summary RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79-1.00). The present analysis indicated the preventive effects of green tea intake on the risk for liver cancer in female Asian populations. However, additional studies are needed to make a convincing case for this association. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving the accuracy of operation coding in surgical discharge summaries

PubMed Central

Martinou, Eirini; Shouls, Genevieve; Betambeau, Nadine

2014-01-01

Procedural coding in surgical discharge summaries is extremely important; as well as communicating to healthcare staff which procedures have been performed, it also provides information that is used by the hospital's coding department. The OPCS code (Office of Population, Censuses and Surveys Classification of Surgical Operations and Procedures) is used to generate the tariff that allows the hospital to be reimbursed for the procedure. We felt that the OPCS coding on discharge summaries was often incorrect within our breast and endocrine surgery department. A baseline measurement over two months demonstrated that 32% of operations had been incorrectly coded, resulting in an incorrect tariff being applied and an estimated loss to the Trust of £17,000. We developed a simple but specific OPCS coding table in collaboration with the clinical coding team and breast surgeons that summarised all operations performed within our department. This table was disseminated across the team, specifically to the junior doctors who most frequently complete the discharge summaries. Re-audit showed 100% of operations were accurately coded, demonstrating the effectiveness of the coding table. We suggest that specifically designed coding tables be introduced across each surgical department to ensure accurate OPCS codes are used to produce better quality surgical discharge summaries and to ensure correct reimbursement to the Trust. PMID:26734286

Geosynchronous Microwave Atmospheric Sounding Radiometer (MASR) feasibility studies. Volume 1: Management summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The mission of the microwave atmospheric sounding radiometer (MASR) is to collect data to aid in the observation and prediction of severe storms. The geosynchronous orbit allows the continuous atmospheric measurement needed to resolve mesoscale dynamics. The instrument may operate in conjunction with this document, Volume 1 - Management, which summarizes the highlights of final reports on both the radiometer instrument and antenna studies. The radiometer instrument summary includes a synopsis of Volume 2 - Radiometer Receiver Feasibility, including design, recommended configuration, performance estimates, and weight and power estimates. The summary of the antenna study includes a synopsis of Volume 3 - Antenna Feasibility, including preliminary design tradeoffs, performance of selected design, and details of the mechanical/thermal design.

Trend analysis and selected summary statistics of annual mean streamflow for 38 selected long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Texas, water years 1916-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Barbie, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Selected summary statistics (L-moments) and estimates of respective sampling variances were computed for the 35 streamgages lacking statistically significant trends. From the L-moments and estimated sampling variances, weighted means or regional values were computed for each L-moment. An example application is included demonstrating how the L-moments could be used to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of annual mean streamflow.

78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-30

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012... estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each... notice that the estimates of the voting age population for July 1, 2012, for each state and the District...

Joint nonparametric correction estimator for excess relative risk regression in survival analysis with exposure measurement error

PubMed Central

Wang, Ching-Yun; Cullings, Harry; Song, Xiao; Kopecky, Kenneth J.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Observational epidemiological studies often confront the problem of estimating exposure-disease relationships when the exposure is not measured exactly. In the paper, we investigate exposure measurement error in excess relative risk regression, which is a widely used model in radiation exposure effect research. In the study cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies a generalized version of the classical additive measurement error model, but it may or may not have repeated measurements. In addition, an instrumental variable is available for individuals in a subset of the whole cohort. We develop a nonparametric correction (NPC) estimator using data from the subcohort, and further propose a joint nonparametric correction (JNPC) estimator using all observed data to adjust for exposure measurement error. An optimal linear combination estimator of JNPC and NPC is further developed. The proposed estimators are nonparametric, which are consistent without imposing a covariate or error distribution, and are robust to heteroscedastic errors. Finite sample performance is examined via a simulation study. We apply the developed methods to data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, in which chromosome aberration is used to adjust for the effects of radiation dose measurement error on the estimation of radiation dose responses. PMID:29354018

Summary of long-baseline systematics session at CETUP*2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cherdack, Daniel; Worcester, Elizabeth

2015-10-15

A session studying systematics in long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics was held July 14-18, 2014 as part of CETUP* 2014. Systematic effects from flux normalization and modeling, modeling of cross sections and nuclear interactions, and far detector effects were addressed. Experts presented the capabilities of existing and planned tools. A program of study to determine estimates of and requirements for the size of these effects was designed. This document summarizes the results of the CETUP* systematics workshop and the current status of systematic uncertainty studies in long-baseline neutrino oscillation measurements.

Hollow Electron Beam Collimation for HL-LHC - Effects on the Beam Core

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fitterer, M.; Stancari, G.; Valishev, A.

2017-06-13

Collimation with hollow electron beams is currently one of the most promising concepts for active halo control in the High Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC). To ensure the successful operation of the hollow beam collimator the unwanted effects on the beam core, which might arise from the operation with a pulsed electron beam, must be minimized. This paper gives a summary of the effect of hollow electron lenses on the beam core in terms of sources, provides estimates for HL-LHC and discusses the possible mitigation methods.

Laboratory Studies on Surface Sampling of Bacillus anthracis Contamination: Summary, Gaps, and Recommendations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piepel, Gregory F.; Amidan, Brett G.; Hu, Rebecca

2011-11-28

This report summarizes previous laboratory studies to characterize the performance of methods for collecting, storing/transporting, processing, and analyzing samples from surfaces contaminated by Bacillus anthracis or related surrogates. The focus is on plate culture and count estimates of surface contamination for swab, wipe, and vacuum samples of porous and nonporous surfaces. Summaries of the previous studies and their results were assessed to identify gaps in information needed as inputs to calculate key parameters critical to risk management in biothreat incidents. One key parameter is the number of samples needed to make characterization or clearance decisions with specified statistical confidence. Othermore » key parameters include the ability to calculate, following contamination incidents, the (1) estimates of Bacillus anthracis contamination, as well as the bias and uncertainties in the estimates, and (2) confidence in characterization and clearance decisions for contaminated or decontaminated buildings. Gaps in knowledge and understanding identified during the summary of the studies are discussed and recommendations are given for future studies.« less

Fruits, vegetables and breast cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Aune, D; Chan, D S M; Vieira, A R; Rosenblatt, D A Navarro; Vieira, R; Greenwood, D C; Norat, T

2012-07-01

Evidence for an association between fruit and vegetable intake and breast cancer risk is inconclusive. To clarify the association, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence from prospective studies. We searched PubMed for prospective studies of fruit and vegetable intake and breast cancer risk until April 30, 2011. We included fifteen prospective studies that reported relative risk estimates and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer associated with fruit and vegetable intake. Random effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks. The summary relative risk (RR) for the highest versus the lowest intake was 0.89 (95 % CI: 0.80-0.99, I (2) = 0 %) for fruits and vegetables combined, 0.92 (95 % CI: 0.86-0.98, I (2) = 9 %) for fruits, and 0.99 (95 % CI: 0.92-1.06, I (2) = 20 %) for vegetables. In dose-response analyses, the summary RR per 200 g/day was 0.96 (95 % CI: 0.93-1.00, I (2) = 2 %) for fruits and vegetables combined, 0.94 (95 % CI: 0.89-1.00, I (2) = 39 %) for fruits, and 1.00 (95 % CI: 0.95-1.06, I (2) = 17 %) for vegetables. In this meta-analysis of prospective studies, high intake of fruits, and fruits and vegetables combined, but not vegetables, is associated with a weak reduction in risk of breast cancer.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi - a systematic review and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Stevenson, Matt; Pandor, Abdullah; Martyn-St James, Marrissa; Rafia, Rachid; Uttley, Lesley; Stevens, John; Sanderson, Jean; Wong, Ruth; Perkins, Gavin D; McMullan, Ronan; Dark, Paul

2016-06-01

Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity. To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE(®) (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest(TM) (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry). Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles. A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based. Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015016724. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Accounting for correlation in network meta-analysis with multi-arm trials.

PubMed

Franchini, A J; Dias, S; Ades, A E; Jansen, J P; Welton, N J

2012-06-01

Multi-arm trials (trials with more than two arms) are particularly valuable forms of evidence for network meta-analysis (NMA). Trial results are available either as arm-level summaries, where effect measures are reported for each arm, or as contrast-level summaries, where the differences in effect between arms compare with the control arm chosen for the trial. We show that likelihood-based inference in both contrast-level and arm-level formats is identical if there are only two-arm trials, but that if there are multi-arm trials, results from the contrast-level format will be incorrect unless correlations are accounted for in the likelihood. We review Bayesian and frequentist software for NMA with multi-arm trials that can account for this correlation and give an illustrative example of the difference in estimates that can be introduced if the correlations are not incorporated. We discuss methods of imputing correlations when they cannot be derived from the reported results and urge trialists to report the standard error for the control arm even if only contrast-level summaries are reported. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nonparametric entropy estimation using kernel densities.

PubMed

Lake, Douglas E

2009-01-01

The entropy of experimental data from the biological and medical sciences provides additional information over summary statistics. Calculating entropy involves estimates of probability density functions, which can be effectively accomplished using kernel density methods. Kernel density estimation has been widely studied and a univariate implementation is readily available in MATLAB. The traditional definition of Shannon entropy is part of a larger family of statistics, called Renyi entropy, which are useful in applications that require a measure of the Gaussianity of data. Of particular note is the quadratic entropy which is related to the Friedman-Tukey (FT) index, a widely used measure in the statistical community. One application where quadratic entropy is very useful is the detection of abnormal cardiac rhythms, such as atrial fibrillation (AF). Asymptotic and exact small-sample results for optimal bandwidth and kernel selection to estimate the FT index are presented and lead to improved methods for entropy estimation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Book begins with this Overview section, which contains the high-level summary cost estimate, the cost profile, and the global construction schedule. The summary cost estimate shows the total US cost and the cost in terms of PHENIX construction funds for building the PHENIX detector. All costs in the WBS book are shown in FY 1993 dollars. Also shown are the institutional and foreign contributions, the level of pre-operations funding, and the cost of deferred items. Pie charts are presented at PHENIX WBS level 1 and 2 that show this information. The PHENIX construction funds aremore » shown broken down to PHENIX WBS level 3 items per fiscal year, and the resulting profile is compared to the RHIC target profile. An accumulated difference of the two profiles is also shown. The PHENIX global construction schedule is presented at the end of the Overview section. Following the Overview are sections for each subsystem. Each subsystem section begins with a summary cost estimate, cost profile, and critical path. The total level 3 cost is broken down into fixed costs (M&S), engineering costs (EDIA) and labor costs. Costs are further broken down in terms of PHENIX construction funds, institutional and foreign contributions, pre-operations funding, and deferred items. Also shown is the contingency at level 3 and the level 4 breakdown of the total cost. The cost profile in fiscal years is shown at level 3. The subsystem summaries are followed by the full cost estimate and schedule sheets for that subsystem. These detailed sheets are typically carried down to level 7 or 8. The cost estimate Total, M&S, EDIA, and Labor breakdowns, as well as contingency, for each WBS entry.« less

PHENIX Work Breakdown Structure. Cost and schedule review copy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-02-01

The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Book begins with this Overview section, which contains the high-level summary cost estimate, the cost profile, and the global construction schedule. The summary cost estimate shows the total US cost and the cost in terms of PHENIX construction funds for building the PHENIX detector. All costs in the WBS book are shown in FY 1993 dollars. Also shown are the institutional and foreign contributions, the level of pre-operations funding, and the cost of deferred items. Pie charts are presented at PHENIX WBS level 1 and 2 that show this information. The PHENIX construction funds aremore » shown broken down to PHENIX WBS level 3 items per fiscal year, and the resulting profile is compared to the RHIC target profile. An accumulated difference of the two profiles is also shown. The PHENIX global construction schedule is presented at the end of the Overview section. Following the Overview are sections for each subsystem. Each subsystem section begins with a summary cost estimate, cost profile, and critical path. The total level 3 cost is broken down into fixed costs (M&S), engineering costs (EDIA) and labor costs. Costs are further broken down in terms of PHENIX construction funds, institutional and foreign contributions, pre-operations funding, and deferred items. Also shown is the contingency at level 3 and the level 4 breakdown of the total cost. The cost profile in fiscal years is shown at level 3. The subsystem summaries are followed by the full cost estimate and schedule sheets for that subsystem. These detailed sheets are typically carried down to level 7 or 8. The cost estimate shows Total, M&S, EDIA, and Labor breakdowns, as well as contingency, for each WBS entry.« less

Summary scores captured changes in subjects' QoL as measured by the multiple scales of the EORTC QLQ-C30.

PubMed

Phillips, Rachel; Gandhi, Mihir; Cheung, Yin Bun; Findlay, Michael P; Win, Khin Maung; Hai, Hoang Hoa; Yang, Jin Mo; Lobo, Rolley Rey; Soo, Khee Chee; Chow, Pierce K H

2015-08-01

To examine the performance of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) global health status/quality of life (QoL) scale and two summary scores to detect changes in the QoL profile over time, according to changes in the individual scales. Data came from 167 clinical trial patients with unresectable (advanced) hepatocellular carcinoma. The global health status/QoL scale of the questionnaire contained two items: overall health and overall QoL. Nordin and Hinz proposed summary scores for the questionnaire. A mixed-effect model was fitted to estimate trends in scores over time. Predominantly the individual scale scores declined over time; however, the global health status/QoL score was stable [rate of change = -0.3 per month; 95% confidence interval (CI): -1.2, 0.6]. Nordin's summary score, which gave equal weight to the 15 questionnaire scales, and Hinz's summary score, which gave equal weight to the 30 questionnaire items, showed a statistically significant decline over time, 3.4 (95% CI: -4.5, -2.4) and 4.2 (95% CI: -5.3, -3.0) points per month, respectively. In contrast to the global health status/QoL scale, the summary scores proposed by Nordin and Hinz detected changes in subjects' QoL profile described by the EORTC QLQ-C30 individual scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time

PubMed Central

Sargent, Daniel J.; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2011-01-01

SUMMARY Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download. PMID:21838732

Covariate selection with group lasso and doubly robust estimation of causal effects

PubMed Central

Koch, Brandon; Vock, David M.; Wolfson, Julian

2017-01-01

Summary The efficiency of doubly robust estimators of the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment can be improved by including in the treatment and outcome models only those covariates which are related to both treatment and outcome (i.e., confounders) or related only to the outcome. However, it is often challenging to identify such covariates among the large number that may be measured in a given study. In this paper, we propose GLiDeR (Group Lasso and Doubly Robust Estimation), a novel variable selection technique for identifying confounders and predictors of outcome using an adaptive group lasso approach that simultaneously performs coefficient selection, regularization, and estimation across the treatment and outcome models. The selected variables and corresponding coefficient estimates are used in a standard doubly robust ACE estimator. We provide asymptotic results showing that, for a broad class of data generating mechanisms, GLiDeR yields a consistent estimator of the ACE when either the outcome or treatment model is correctly specified. A comprehensive simulation study shows that GLiDeR is more efficient than doubly robust methods using standard variable selection techniques and has substantial computational advantages over a recently proposed doubly robust Bayesian model averaging method. We illustrate our method by estimating the causal treatment effect of bilateral versus single-lung transplant on forced expiratory volume in one year after transplant using an observational registry. PMID:28636276

Deaths averted by influenza vaccination in the U.S. during the seasons 2005/06 through 2013/14.

PubMed

Foppa, Ivo M; Cheng, Po-Yung; Reynolds, Sue B; Shay, David K; Carias, Cristina; Bresee, Joseph S; Kim, Inkyu K; Gambhir, Manoj; Fry, Alicia M

2015-06-12

Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is substantial, yet quantitative estimates of the benefit of annual vaccination programs on influenza-associated mortality are lacking. We estimated the numbers of deaths averted by vaccination in four age groups (0.5 to 4, 5 to 19, 20 to 64 and ≥65 yrs.) for the nine influenza seasons from 2005/6 through 2013/14. These estimates were obtained using a Monte Carlo approach applied to weekly U.S. age group-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, monthly vaccination coverage estimates and summary seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates to obtain estimates of the number of deaths averted by vaccination. The estimates are conservative as they do not include indirect vaccination effects. From August, 2005 through June, 2014, we estimated that 40,127 (95% confidence interval [CI] 25,694 to 59,210) deaths were averted by influenza vaccination. We found that of all studied seasons the most deaths were averted by influenza vaccination during the 2012/13 season (9398; 95% CI 2,386 to 19,897) and the fewest during the 2009/10 pandemic (222; 95% CI 79 to 347). Of all influenza-associated deaths averted, 88.9% (95% CI 83 to 92.5%) were in people ≥65 yrs. old. The estimated number of deaths averted by the US annual influenza vaccination program is considerable, especially among elderly adults and even when vaccine effectiveness is modest, such as in the 2012/13 season. As indirect effects ("herd immunity") of vaccination are ignored, these estimates represent lower bound estimates and are thus conservative given valid excess mortality estimates. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimates of amounts of soil removal for clean-up of transuranics at NAEG offsite safety-shot sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinnison, R.R.; Gilbert, R.O.

Rough estimates are given for the amount of soil removal necessary to decontaminate five representative safety-shot areas. In order to decontaminate to levels of less than 160 pCi /sup 239/Pu per gram of surface soil, it is estimated that over one-half million tons of soil would have to be removed from the five areas. This is a preliminary estimate based on summary data and concentration contour maps readily available in NAEG publications. More accurate estimates could be obtained by applying Kriging techniques to available soil data if the need arises. The inclusion of /sup 241/Am and /sup 238/Pu activities domore » not significantly increase the soil tonnage estimates obtained for /sup 239/ /sup 240/Pu because of their relatively small contributions to total transuranic activity. The magnitude of the errors inherent in our use of summary data to obtain rough estimates also suggests that a revision of the tonnage estimates for /sup 239/ /sup 240/Pu to include /sup 241/Am and /sup 238/Pu is not warranted.« less

Random-Effects Meta-Analysis of Time-to-Event Data Using the Expectation-Maximisation Algorithm and Shrinkage Estimators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simmonds, Mark C.; Higgins, Julian P. T.; Stewart, Lesley A.

2013-01-01

Meta-analysis of time-to-event data has proved difficult in the past because consistent summary statistics often cannot be extracted from published results. The use of individual patient data allows for the re-analysis of each study in a consistent fashion and thus makes meta-analysis of time-to-event data feasible. Time-to-event data can be…

Revised Baseline Budget Projections for Fiscal Years 1999-2008

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-03-03

or for the conclusions that CBO reached. CONTENTS SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION 1 MODELING THE ECONOMY 3 Production 6 Private Capital and Labor 7... modeling the economy and the federal budget in the long run and to estimating the effects of uncertainty about future population and productivity . MODELING ...conventions of the official national income and product accounts (NIPAs). Given the equations, the model needs two other factors to make a simulation

77 FR 6682 - Marine Mammals; Subsistence Taking of Northern Fur Seals; Harvest Estimates

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-09

.... 110781394-2048-02] RIN 0648-BB09 Marine Mammals; Subsistence Taking of Northern Fur Seals; Harvest Estimates...), Commerce. ACTION: Final estimates of annual fur seal subsistence needs. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the regulations governing the subsistence taking of [[Page 6683

78 FR 23944 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-23

...) will publish periodic summaries of proposed projects. To request more information on the proposed... estimates for these requirements are summarized in the table below: Annualized Burden Estimates Annual...

Effect size calculation in meta-analyses of psychotherapy outcome research.

PubMed

Hoyt, William T; Del Re, A C

2018-05-01

Meta-analysis of psychotherapy intervention research normally examines differences between treatment groups and some form of comparison group (e.g., wait list control; alternative treatment group). The effect of treatment is normally quantified as a standardized mean difference (SMD). We describe procedures for computing unbiased estimates of the population SMD from sample data (e.g., group Ms and SDs), and provide guidance about a number of complications that may arise related to effect size computation. These complications include (a) incomplete data in research reports; (b) use of baseline data in computing SMDs and estimating the population standard deviation (σ); (c) combining effect size data from studies using different research designs; and (d) appropriate techniques for analysis of data from studies providing multiple estimates of the effect of interest (i.e., dependent effect sizes). Clinical or Methodological Significance of this article: Meta-analysis is a set of techniques for producing valid summaries of existing research. The initial computational step for meta-analyses of research on intervention outcomes involves computing an effect size quantifying the change attributable to the intervention. We discuss common issues in the computation of effect sizes and provide recommended procedures to address them.

A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR VARIANCE COMPONENT ESTIMATION WITH SUMMARY STATISTICS IN GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDIES.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiang

2017-12-01

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are among the most commonly used tools for genetic association studies. However, the standard method for estimating variance components in LMMs-the restricted maximum likelihood estimation method (REML)-suffers from several important drawbacks: REML requires individual-level genotypes and phenotypes from all samples in the study, is computationally slow, and produces downward-biased estimates in case control studies. To remedy these drawbacks, we present an alternative framework for variance component estimation, which we refer to as MQS. MQS is based on the method of moments (MoM) and the minimal norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) criterion, and brings two seemingly unrelated methods-the renowned Haseman-Elston (HE) regression and the recent LD score regression (LDSC)-into the same unified statistical framework. With this new framework, we provide an alternative but mathematically equivalent form of HE that allows for the use of summary statistics. We provide an exact estimation form of LDSC to yield unbiased and statistically more efficient estimates. A key feature of our method is its ability to pair marginal z -scores computed using all samples with SNP correlation information computed using a small random subset of individuals (or individuals from a proper reference panel), while capable of producing estimates that can be almost as accurate as if both quantities are computed using the full data. As a result, our method produces unbiased and statistically efficient estimates, and makes use of summary statistics, while it is computationally efficient for large data sets. Using simulations and applications to 37 phenotypes from 8 real data sets, we illustrate the benefits of our method for estimating and partitioning SNP heritability in population studies as well as for heritability estimation in family studies. Our method is implemented in the GEMMA software package, freely available at www.xzlab.org/software.html.

Estimating Greenspace Exposure and Benefits for Cumulative Risk Assessment Applications (Summary Report)

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides a summary of the technical meeting on greenspace (GS) and cumulative risk assessment convened May 4−5, 2015 in Cincinnati, OH, by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) National Center for Environmental As...

Does the association of prostate cancer with night-shift work differ according to rotating vs. fixed schedule? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mancio, Jennifer; Leal, Cátia; Ferreira, Marta; Norton, Pedro; Lunet, Nuno

2018-04-27

Recent studies suggested that the relation between night-shift work and prostate cancer may differ between rotating and fixed schedules. We aimed to quantify the independent association between night-shift work and prostate cancer, for rotating and fixed schedules. We searched MEDLINE for studies assessing the association of night-shift work, by rotating or fixed schedules, with prostate cancer. We computed summary relative risk (RR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using the inverse variance method and quantified heterogeneity using the I 2 statistic. Meta-regression analysis was used to compare the summary RR estimates for rotating and fixed schedules, while reducing heterogeneity. A total of nine studies assessed the effect of rotating and, in addition, four of them provided the effect of fixed night-shift work, in relation to daytime workers. Rotating night-shift work was associated with a significantly increased risk of prostate cancer (RR = 1.06, 95% CI of 1.01 to 1.12; I 2  = 50%), but not fixed night-shift work (RR of 1.01, 95% CI of 0.81 to 1.26; I 2  = 33%). In meta-regression model including study design, type of population, and control of confounding, the summary RR was 20% higher for rotating vs. fixed schedule, with heterogeneity fully explained by these variables. This is the first meta-analysis suggesting that an increased risk of prostate cancer may be restricted to workers with rotating night shifts. However, the association was weak and additional studies are needed to further clarify this relation before it can be translated into measures for risk reduction in occupational settings.

Tobacco smoking and the risk of sudden cardiac death: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Aune, Dagfinn; Schlesinger, Sabrina; Norat, Teresa; Riboli, Elio

2018-06-01

Smoking is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease including coronary heart disease and stroke, however, data regarding smoking and sudden cardiac death have not been summarized in a meta-analysis previously. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify this association. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases for studies of smoking and sudden cardiac death up to July 20th 2017. Prospective studies were included if they reported adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for smoking and sudden cardiac death. Summary RRs were estimated by use of a random effects model. Twelve prospective studies were included. The summary RR was 3.06 (95% CI 2.46-3.82, I 2  = 41%, p heterogeneity  = 0.12, n = 7) for current smokers and 1.38 (95% CI 1.20-1.60, I 2  = 0%, p heterogeneity  = 0.55, n = 7) for former smokers compared to never smokers. For four studies using non-current (never + former) smokers as the reference category the summary RR among current smokers was 2.08 (95% CI 1.70-2.53, I 2  = 18%, p heterogeneity  = 0.30). The results persisted in most of the subgroup analyses. There was no evidence of publication bias. These results confirm that smoking increases the risk of sudden cardiac death. Any further studies should investigate in more detail the effects of duration of smoking, number of cigarettes per day, pack-years, and time since quitting smoking and sudden cardiac death.

Coffee Drinking and the Risk of Endometrial Cancer: An Updated Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Lukic, Marko; Guha, Neela; Licaj, Idlir; van den Brandt, Piet A; Stayner, Leslie Thomas; Tavani, Alessandra; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2018-01-01

Several compounds contained in coffee have been found to suppress carcinogenesis in experimental studies. We conducted a dose-response meta-analysis to assess the impact of coffee consumption on the risk of endometrial cancer. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for studies published up to August 2016. Using random effects models, we estimated summary relative risks (RR) for cohort studies and odds ratios (OR) for case-control studies with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Dose-response analyses were conducted by using generalized least square trend estimation. We identified 12 cohort studies and 8 case-control studies eligible for inclusion, contributing with 11,663 and 2,746 endometrial cancer cases, respectively. The summary RR for highest compared with lowest coffee intake was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.81; p heterogeneity = 0.09, I 2 = 32%). The corresponding summary RR among cohort studies was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.85; p heterogeneity = 0.14, I 2 = 31.9%) and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.53-0.76; p heterogeneity = 0.57, I 2 = 0%) for case-control studies. One-cup increment per day was associated with 3% risk reduction (95% CI: 2-4%) in cohort studies and 12% (95% CI: 5-18%) in case-control studies. After pooling the results from 5 cohort studies, the association remained significant only in women with body mass index over 30 (RR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61-0.81). The results from our meta-analysis strengthen the evidence of a protective effect of coffee consumption on the risk of EC and further suggest that increased coffee intake might be particularly beneficial for women with obesity.

A novel approach for choosing summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Aeschbacher, Simon; Beaumont, Mark A; Futschik, Andreas

2012-11-01

The choice of summary statistics is a crucial step in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Since statistics are often not sufficient, this choice involves a trade-off between loss of information and reduction of dimensionality. The latter may increase the efficiency of ABC. Here, we propose an approach for choosing summary statistics based on boosting, a technique from the machine-learning literature. We consider different types of boosting and compare them to partial least-squares regression as an alternative. To mitigate the lack of sufficiency, we also propose an approach for choosing summary statistics locally, in the putative neighborhood of the true parameter value. We study a demographic model motivated by the reintroduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into the Swiss Alps. The parameters of interest are the mean and standard deviation across microsatellites of the scaled ancestral mutation rate (θ(anc) = 4N(e)u) and the proportion of males obtaining access to matings per breeding season (ω). By simulation, we assess the properties of the posterior distribution obtained with the various methods. According to our criteria, ABC with summary statistics chosen locally via boosting with the L(2)-loss performs best. Applying that method to the ibex data, we estimate θ(anc)≈ 1.288 and find that most of the variation across loci of the ancestral mutation rate u is between 7.7 × 10(-4) and 3.5 × 10(-3) per locus per generation. The proportion of males with access to matings is estimated as ω≈ 0.21, which is in good agreement with recent independent estimates.

A Novel Approach for Choosing Summary Statistics in Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Aeschbacher, Simon; Beaumont, Mark A.; Futschik, Andreas

2012-01-01

The choice of summary statistics is a crucial step in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Since statistics are often not sufficient, this choice involves a trade-off between loss of information and reduction of dimensionality. The latter may increase the efficiency of ABC. Here, we propose an approach for choosing summary statistics based on boosting, a technique from the machine-learning literature. We consider different types of boosting and compare them to partial least-squares regression as an alternative. To mitigate the lack of sufficiency, we also propose an approach for choosing summary statistics locally, in the putative neighborhood of the true parameter value. We study a demographic model motivated by the reintroduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into the Swiss Alps. The parameters of interest are the mean and standard deviation across microsatellites of the scaled ancestral mutation rate (θanc = 4Neu) and the proportion of males obtaining access to matings per breeding season (ω). By simulation, we assess the properties of the posterior distribution obtained with the various methods. According to our criteria, ABC with summary statistics chosen locally via boosting with the L2-loss performs best. Applying that method to the ibex data, we estimate θ^anc≈1.288 and find that most of the variation across loci of the ancestral mutation rate u is between 7.7 × 10−4 and 3.5 × 10−3 per locus per generation. The proportion of males with access to matings is estimated as ω^≈0.21, which is in good agreement with recent independent estimates. PMID:22960215

Meta-analysis of the effect of road work zones on crash occurrence.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios; Ziakopoulos, Apostolos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Diamandouros, Konstantinos

2017-11-01

There is strong evidence that work zones pose increased risk of crashes and injuries. The two most common risk factors associated with increased crash frequencies are work zone duration and length. However, relevant research on the topic is relatively limited. For that reason, this paper presents formal meta-analyses of studies that have estimated the relationship between the number of crashes and work zone duration and length, in order to provide overall estimates of those effects on crash frequencies. All studies presented in this paper are crash prediction models with similar specifications. According to the meta-analyses and after correcting for publication bias when it was considered appropriate, the summary estimates of regression coefficients were found to be 0.1703 for duration and 0.862 for length. These effects were significant for length but not for duration. However, the overall estimate of duration was significant before correcting for publication bias. Separate meta-analyses on the studies examining both duration and length was also carried out in order to have rough estimates of the combined effects. The estimate of duration was found to be 0.953, while for length was 0.847. Similar to previous meta-analyses the effect of duration after correcting for publication bias is not significant, while the effect of length was significant at a 95% level. Meta-regression findings indicate that the main factors influencing the overall estimates of the beta coefficients are study year and region for duration and study year and model specification for length. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of three discharge coding methods on the accuracy of diagnostic coding and hospital reimbursement for inpatient medical care.

PubMed

Tsopra, Rosy; Peckham, Daniel; Beirne, Paul; Rodger, Kirsty; Callister, Matthew; White, Helen; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Ghosh, Dipansu; Whitaker, Paul; Clifton, Ian J; Wyatt, Jeremy C

2018-07-01

Coding of diagnoses is important for patient care, hospital management and research. However coding accuracy is often poor and may reflect methods of coding. This study investigates the impact of three alternative coding methods on the inaccuracy of diagnosis codes and hospital reimbursement. Comparisons of coding inaccuracy were made between a list of coded diagnoses obtained by a coder using (i)the discharge summary alone, (ii)case notes and discharge summary, and (iii)discharge summary with the addition of medical input. For each method, inaccuracy was determined for the primary, secondary diagnoses, Healthcare Resource Group (HRG) and estimated hospital reimbursement. These data were then compared with a gold standard derived by a consultant and coder. 107 consecutive patient discharges were analysed. Inaccuracy of diagnosis codes was highest when a coder used the discharge summary alone, and decreased significantly when the coder used the case notes (70% vs 58% respectively, p < 0.0001) or coded from the discharge summary with medical support (70% vs 60% respectively, p < 0.0001). When compared with the gold standard, the percentage of incorrect HRGs was 42% for discharge summary alone, 31% for coding with case notes, and 35% for coding with medical support. The three coding methods resulted in an annual estimated loss of hospital remuneration of between £1.8 M and £16.5 M. The accuracy of diagnosis codes and percentage of correct HRGs improved when coders used either case notes or medical support in addition to the discharge summary. Further emphasis needs to be placed on improving the standard of information recorded in discharge summaries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outside users payload model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The outside users payload model which is a continuation of documents and replaces and supersedes the July 1984 edition is presented. The time period covered by this model is 1985 through 2000. The following sections are included: (1) definition of the scope of the model; (2) discussion of the methodology used; (3) overview of total demand; (4) summary of the estimated market segmentation by launch vehicle; (5) summary of the estimated market segmentation by user type; (6) details of the STS market forecast; (7) summary of transponder trends; (8) model overview by mission category; and (9) detailed mission models. All known non-NASA, non-DOD reimbursable payloads forecast to be flown by non-Soviet-block countries are included in this model with the exception of Spacelab payloads and small self contained payloads. Certain DOD-sponsored or cosponsored payloads are included if they are reimbursable launches.

76 FR 21750 - State Median Income Estimate for a Four-Person Family: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-18

... Income Estimate for a Four-Person Family: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2012 State Median Income Estimates for Use Under the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) AGENCY.... ACTION: Notice of State median income estimates for FFY 2012. SUMMARY: This notice announces to LIHEAP...

Seasonal influenza vaccine efficacy and its determinants in children and non-elderly adults: a systematic review with meta-analyses of controlled trials.

PubMed

DiazGranados, Carlos A; Denis, Martine; Plotkin, Stanley

2012-12-17

The true level of influenza vaccine efficacy is controversial and many factors may influence its estimation. To estimate the efficacy of vaccination of children and non-elderly adults for the prevention of influenza and to explore the impact of type of vaccine, age, degree of strain matching, influenza type and case ascertainment methods on vaccine efficacy estimates. Medline and EmBase databases until October 2011. References of relevant articles were also reviewed. Controlled trials evaluating seasonal influenza vaccines and presenting incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza illness were eligible. Studies exploring efficacy after experimental challenge, presenting duplicate data, employing group randomization, or focusing on special populations were excluded. The vaccine effect on influenza prevention was evaluated by calculating Mantel-Haenszel risk ratios (RR) and using random-effects models. Vaccine efficacies were calculated for each comparison as (1-RR)×100. Thirty studies were included in one or more of a total of 101 analyses, comprising 88.468 study participants. There was evidence of heterogeneity in 49% of the analyses. Summary vaccine efficacy was 65% against any strain, 78% against matched strains and 55% against not-matched strains. Both live-attenuated and inactivated vaccines showed similar levels of protection against not-matched strains (60% and 55%, respectively). Live-attenuated vaccines performed better than inactivated vaccines in children (80% versus 48%), whereas inactivated vaccines performed better than live-attenuated vaccines in adults (59% versus 39%). There was a large difference (20%) in efficacy against influenza A (69%) and influenza B (49%) types for not-matched strains. Summary estimates of vaccine efficacy were highest when ascertainment was based on culture confirmation. Influenza vaccines are efficacious, but efficacy estimates depend on many variables including type of vaccine and age of vaccinees, degree of matching of the circulating strains to the vaccine, influenza type, and methods of case ascertainment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation-based power calculations for planning a two-stage individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ensor, Joie; Burke, Danielle L; Snell, Kym I E; Hemming, Karla; Riley, Richard D

2018-05-18

Researchers and funders should consider the statistical power of planned Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis projects, as they are often time-consuming and costly. We propose simulation-based power calculations utilising a two-stage framework, and illustrate the approach for a planned IPD meta-analysis of randomised trials with continuous outcomes where the aim is to identify treatment-covariate interactions. The simulation approach has four steps: (i) specify an underlying (data generating) statistical model for trials in the IPD meta-analysis; (ii) use readily available information (e.g. from publications) and prior knowledge (e.g. number of studies promising IPD) to specify model parameter values (e.g. control group mean, intervention effect, treatment-covariate interaction); (iii) simulate an IPD meta-analysis dataset of a particular size from the model, and apply a two-stage IPD meta-analysis to obtain the summary estimate of interest (e.g. interaction effect) and its associated p-value; (iv) repeat the previous step (e.g. thousands of times), then estimate the power to detect a genuine effect by the proportion of summary estimates with a significant p-value. In a planned IPD meta-analysis of lifestyle interventions to reduce weight gain in pregnancy, 14 trials (1183 patients) promised their IPD to examine a treatment-BMI interaction (i.e. whether baseline BMI modifies intervention effect on weight gain). Using our simulation-based approach, a two-stage IPD meta-analysis has < 60% power to detect a reduction of 1 kg weight gain for a 10-unit increase in BMI. Additional IPD from ten other published trials (containing 1761 patients) would improve power to over 80%, but only if a fixed-effect meta-analysis was appropriate. Pre-specified adjustment for prognostic factors would increase power further. Incorrect dichotomisation of BMI would reduce power by over 20%, similar to immediately throwing away IPD from ten trials. Simulation-based power calculations could inform the planning and funding of IPD projects, and should be used routinely.

76 FR 44018 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection: Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-22

... Services Administration (HRSA) publishes periodic summaries of proposed projects being developed for... estimates are presented in two tables. The first table represents the estimated burden for the first year... month submission to calculate the total burden hours. Table 1--Estimate of Burden for the First Year...

32 CFR 644.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... otherwise, to establish the validity and competence of his estimates. He must familiarize himself with basic..., 1971, dictates that written statement of, and summary of the basis for, the amount of the estimate of... Appraisers which sets out market value “as the highest price estimated in terms of money which a property...

32 CFR 644.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... otherwise, to establish the validity and competence of his estimates. He must familiarize himself with basic..., 1971, dictates that written statement of, and summary of the basis for, the amount of the estimate of... Appraisers which sets out market value “as the highest price estimated in terms of money which a property...

32 CFR 644.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... otherwise, to establish the validity and competence of his estimates. He must familiarize himself with basic..., 1971, dictates that written statement of, and summary of the basis for, the amount of the estimate of... Appraisers which sets out market value “as the highest price estimated in terms of money which a property...

32 CFR 644.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... otherwise, to establish the validity and competence of his estimates. He must familiarize himself with basic..., 1971, dictates that written statement of, and summary of the basis for, the amount of the estimate of... Appraisers which sets out market value “as the highest price estimated in terms of money which a property...

32 CFR 644.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... otherwise, to establish the validity and competence of his estimates. He must familiarize himself with basic..., 1971, dictates that written statement of, and summary of the basis for, the amount of the estimate of... Appraisers which sets out market value “as the highest price estimated in terms of money which a property...

Department of the Navy Supporting Data for Fiscal Year 1984 Budget Estimates Descriptive Summaries Submitted to Congress January 1983. Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, Navy. Book 1. Technology Base, Advanced Technology Development, Strategic Programs.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

altioser access (2) Asesss maturity of on-gotnR efforts and integrate appropriate development Into an effective globally dftjtributod .command spport...numerical techniques for nonlinear media.structure shock Interaction inrluding effects of elastic-plastic deformation have bee.a developed and used to...shtittle flight; develop camera payload for SPARTAN (free flyer) flight f rom shuttle. Develop detailed Interpretivesystem capablity~ for global ultraviolet

Price Elasticities of Food Demand: Compensated vs Uncompensated.

PubMed

Clements, Kenneth W; Si, Jiawei

2016-11-01

Two recent studies have provided a comprehensive review/summary of a large number of estimates of the price elasticity of food consumption using a meta-regression approach. In this letter, we introduce a way of removing the income effect from these elasticities to recover the compensated elasticities. Although the income effect is small, the compensated elasticities vary by income group. Both types of elasticity should possibly be considered when assessing the impact of policy changes on food consumption. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preliminary analysis of an integrated logistics system for OSSA payloads. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palguta, T.; Bradley, W.; Stockton, T.

1988-01-01

The purpose is to describe the logistics study background and approach to providing estimates of of logistics support requirements for Office of Space Science and Applications' payloads in the Space Station era. A concise summary is given of the study results. Future logistics support analysis tasks are identified.

Affordability of Higher Education: California and Other States. Presentation to the Assembly Higher Education Committee. Report 11-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Jessika

2011-01-01

This is a summary of a presentation to the Assembly Higher Education Committee on college fee and total cost comparisons of California public universities with comparator universities in other states. This summary also includes grant award estimates and net cost of college by family income.

Assessment of Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Content Across Different Scales of Observation

PubMed Central

Verstraeten, Willem W.; Veroustraete, Frank; Feyen, Jan

2008-01-01

The proper assessment of evapotranspiration and soil moisture content are fundamental in food security research, land management, pollution detection, nutrient flows, (wild-) fire detection, (desert) locust, carbon balance as well as hydrological modelling; etc. This paper takes an extensive, though not exhaustive sample of international scientific literature to discuss different approaches to estimate land surface and ecosystem related evapotranspiration and soil moisture content. This review presents: (i)a summary of the generally accepted cohesion theory of plant water uptake and transport including a shortlist of meteorological and plant factors influencing plant transpiration;(ii)a summary on evapotranspiration assessment at different scales of observation (sap-flow, porometer, lysimeter, field and catchment water balance, Bowen ratio, scintillometer, eddy correlation, Penman-Monteith and related approaches);(iii)a summary on data assimilation schemes conceived to estimate evapotranspiration using optical and thermal remote sensing; and(iv)for soil moisture content, a summary on soil moisture retrieval techniques at different spatial and temporal scales is presented. Concluding remarks on the best available approaches to assess evapotranspiration and soil moisture content with and emphasis on remote sensing data assimilation, are provided. PMID:27879697

Assessment of Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Content Across Different Scales of Observation.

PubMed

Verstraeten, Willem W; Veroustraete, Frank; Feyen, Jan

2008-01-09

The proper assessment of evapotranspiration and soil moisture content arefundamental in food security research, land management, pollution detection, nutrient flows,(wild-) fire detection, (desert) locust, carbon balance as well as hydrological modelling; etc.This paper takes an extensive, though not exhaustive sample of international scientificliterature to discuss different approaches to estimate land surface and ecosystem relatedevapotranspiration and soil moisture content. This review presents:(i) a summary of the generally accepted cohesion theory of plant water uptake andtransport including a shortlist of meteorological and plant factors influencing planttranspiration;(ii) a summary on evapotranspiration assessment at different scales of observation (sapflow,porometer, lysimeter, field and catchment water balance, Bowen ratio,scintillometer, eddy correlation, Penman-Monteith and related approaches);(iii) a summary on data assimilation schemes conceived to estimate evapotranspirationusing optical and thermal remote sensing; and(iv) for soil moisture content, a summary on soil moisture retrieval techniques atdifferent spatial and temporal scales is presented.Concluding remarks on the best available approaches to assess evapotranspiration and soilmoisture content with and emphasis on remote sensing data assimilation, are provided.

Colorectal cancer risk and dietary intake of calcium, vitamin D, and dairy products: a meta-analysis of 26,335 cases from 60 observational studies.

PubMed

Huncharek, Michael; Muscat, Joshua; Kupelnick, Bruce

2009-01-01

In vivo and in vitro studies suggest that dairy products, calcium, and dietary vitamin D inhibits the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate this relationship in observational studies. Data from 60 epidemiological studies enrolling 26,335 CRC cases were pooled using a general variance-based meta-analytic method. Summary relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the highest vs. the lowest intake categories. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of these summary effect measures and the statistical heterogeneity. The summary RR for high milk and dairy product intake, respectively, on colon cancer risk was 0.78 (95% CI = 0.67-0.92) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.75-0.95). Milk intake was unrelated to rectal cancer risk. High calcium intake had a greater protective effect against tumors of the distal colon and rectal cancer vs. proximal colon. The risk reduction associated with calcium was similar for dietary and supplemental sources. Vitamin D was associated with a nonsignificant 6% reduction in CRC risk. Higher consumption of milk/dairy products reduces the risk of colon cancer, and high calcium intake reduces the risk of CRC. Low vitamin D intake in the study populations may limit the ability to detect a protective effect if one exists.

IRIS TOXICOLOGICAL REVIEW AND SUMMARY ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The known toxic effects of perchloroethylene will be summarized, with citations from current scientific literature. The critical effects will be identified, and from this the RfD and RfC and cancer unit risk factors will be derived. The RfD and RfC are reference doses and air concentrations that are generally regarded as safe under conditions of chronic exposure. The cancer unit risks in air and drinking water are the estimated lifetime cancer risks expected to occur from a lifetime exposure to a concentration of 1 microgram per cubic meter in the air and to a drinking water concentration of 1 microgram per liter. This summary document will be peer reviewed within the Agency and by experts outside the Agency according to the standard IRIS procedures. For up-to-date project schedules see IRIS Track at http://cfpub.epa.gov/iristrac/index.cfm The U.S. EPA is conducting a new health assessment of tetrachloroethylene that will appear on the Agency's online database, the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment process, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific sit

Lightning Strike Peak Current Probabilities as Related to Space Shuttle Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.

2000-01-01

A summary is presented of basic lightning characteristics/criteria applicable to current and future aerospace vehicles. The paper provides estimates on the probability of occurrence of a 200 kA peak lightning return current, should lightning strike an aerospace vehicle in various operational phases, i.e., roll-out, on-pad, launch, reenter/land, and return-to-launch site. A literature search was conducted for previous work concerning occurrence and measurement of peak lighting currents, modeling, and estimating the probabilities of launch vehicles/objects being struck by lightning. This paper presents a summary of these results.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies in mental health

PubMed Central

Takwoingi, Yemisi; Riley, Richard D; Deeks, Jonathan J

2015-01-01

Objectives To explain methods for data synthesis of evidence from diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies, and to illustrate different types of analyses that may be performed in a DTA systematic review. Methods We described properties of meta-analytic methods for quantitative synthesis of evidence. We used a DTA review comparing the accuracy of three screening questionnaires for bipolar disorder to illustrate application of the methods for each type of analysis. Results The discriminatory ability of a test is commonly expressed in terms of sensitivity (proportion of those with the condition who test positive) and specificity (proportion of those without the condition who test negative). There is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, as an increasing threshold for defining test positivity will decrease sensitivity and increase specificity. Methods recommended for meta-analysis of DTA studies --such as the bivariate or hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model --jointly summarise sensitivity and specificity while taking into account this threshold effect, as well as allowing for between study differences in test performance beyond what would be expected by chance. The bivariate model focuses on estimation of a summary sensitivity and specificity at a common threshold while the HSROC model focuses on the estimation of a summary curve from studies that have used different thresholds. Conclusions Meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies can provide answers to important clinical questions. We hope this article will provide clinicians with sufficient understanding of the terminology and methods to aid interpretation of systematic reviews and facilitate better patient care. PMID:26446042

Score Estimating Equations from Embedded Likelihood Functions under Accelerated Failure Time Model

PubMed Central

NING, JING; QIN, JING; SHEN, YU

2014-01-01

SUMMARY The semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) model is one of the most popular models for analyzing time-to-event outcomes. One appealing feature of the AFT model is that the observed failure time data can be transformed to identically independent distributed random variables without covariate effects. We describe a class of estimating equations based on the score functions for the transformed data, which are derived from the full likelihood function under commonly used semiparametric models such as the proportional hazards or proportional odds model. The methods of estimating regression parameters under the AFT model can be applied to traditional right-censored survival data as well as more complex time-to-event data subject to length-biased sampling. We establish the asymptotic properties and evaluate the small sample performance of the proposed estimators. We illustrate the proposed methods through applications in two examples. PMID:25663727

Empirical Bayes Estimation of Semi-parametric Hierarchical Mixture Models for Unbiased Characterization of Polygenic Disease Architectures

PubMed Central

Nishino, Jo; Kochi, Yuta; Shigemizu, Daichi; Kato, Mamoru; Ikari, Katsunori; Ochi, Hidenori; Noma, Hisashi; Matsui, Kota; Morizono, Takashi; Boroevich, Keith A.; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Matsui, Shigeyuki

2018-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) suggest that the genetic architecture of complex diseases consists of unexpectedly numerous variants with small effect sizes. However, the polygenic architectures of many diseases have not been well characterized due to lack of simple and fast methods for unbiased estimation of the underlying proportion of disease-associated variants and their effect-size distribution. Applying empirical Bayes estimation of semi-parametric hierarchical mixture models to GWAS summary statistics, we confirmed that schizophrenia was extremely polygenic [~40% of independent genome-wide SNPs are risk variants, most within odds ratio (OR = 1.03)], whereas rheumatoid arthritis was less polygenic (~4 to 8% risk variants, significant portion reaching OR = 1.05 to 1.1). For rheumatoid arthritis, stratified estimations revealed that expression quantitative loci in blood explained large genetic variance, and low- and high-frequency derived alleles were prone to be risk and protective, respectively, suggesting a predominance of deleterious-risk and advantageous-protective mutations. Despite genetic correlation, effect-size distributions for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder differed across allele frequency. These analyses distinguished disease polygenic architectures and provided clues for etiological differences in complex diseases. PMID:29740473

Space Station Facility government estimating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Joseph A.

1993-01-01

This new, unique Cost Engineering Report introduces the 800-page, C-100 government estimate for the Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) and Volume IV Aerospace Construction Price Book. At the January 23, 1991, bid opening for the SSPF, the government cost estimate was right on target. Metric, Inc., Prime Contractor, low bid was 1.2 percent below the government estimate. This project contains many different and complex systems. Volume IV is a summary of the cost associated with construction, activation and Ground Support Equipment (GSE) design, estimating, fabrication, installation, testing, termination, and verification of this project. Included are 13 reasons the government estimate was so accurate; abstract of bids, for 8 bidders and government estimate with additive alternates, special labor and materials, budget comparison and system summaries; and comments on the energy credit from local electrical utility. This report adds another project to our continuing study of 'How Does the Low Bidder Get Low and Make Money?' which was started in 1967, and first published in the 1973 AACE Transaction with 18 ways the low bidders get low. The accuracy of this estimate proves the benefits of our Kennedy Space Center (KSC) teamwork efforts and KSC Cost Engineer Tools which are contributing toward our goals of the Space Station.

The diagnostic performance of reduced-dose CT for suspected appendicitis in paediatric and adult patients: A systematic review and diagnostic meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yoon, Hee Mang; Suh, Chong Hyun; Cho, Young Ah; Kim, Jeong Rye; Lee, Jin Seong; Jung, Ah Young; Kim, Jung Heon; Lee, Jeong-Yong; Kim, So Yeon

2018-06-01

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of reduced-dose CT for suspected appendicitis. A systematic search of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases was carried out through to 10 January 2017. Studies evaluating the diagnostic performance of reduced-dose CT for suspected appendicitis in paediatric and adult patients were selected. Pooled summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated using hierarchical logistic regression modelling. Meta-regression was performed. Fourteen original articles with a total of 3,262 patients were included. For all studies using reduced-dose CT, the summary sensitivity was 96 % (95 % CI 93-98) with a summary specificity of 94 % (95 % CI 92-95). For the 11 studies providing a head-to-head comparison between reduced-dose CT and standard-dose CT, reduced-dose CT demonstrated a comparable summary sensitivity of 96 % (95 % CI 91-98) and specificity of 94 % (95 % CI 93-96) without any significant differences (p=.41). In meta-regression, there were no significant factors affecting the heterogeneity. The median effective radiation dose of the reduced-dose CT was 1.8 mSv (1.46-4.16 mSv), which was a 78 % reduction in effective radiation dose compared to the standard-dose CT. Reduced-dose CT shows excellent diagnostic performance for suspected appendicitis. • Reduced-dose CT shows excellent diagnostic performance for evaluating suspected appendicitis. • Reduced-dose CT has a comparable diagnostic performance to standard-dose CT. • Median effective radiation dose of reduced-dose CT was 1.8 mSv (1.46-4.16). • Reduced-dose CT achieved a 78 % dose reduction compared to standard-dose CT.

Breast-feeding and Helicobacter pylori infection: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Carreira, Helena; Bastos, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Lunet, Nuno

2015-02-01

To quantify the association between breast-feeding and Helicobacter pylori infection, among children and adolescents. We searched MEDLINE™ and Scopus™ up to January 2013. Summary relative risk estimates (RR) and 95 % confidence intervals were computed through the DerSimonian and Laird method. Heterogeneity was quantified using the I² statistic. Twenty-seven countries/regions; four low-income, thirteen middle-income and ten high-income countries/regions. Studies involving samples of children and adolescents, aged 0 to 19 years. We identified thirty-eight eligible studies, which is nearly twice the number included in a previous meta-analysis on this topic. Fifteen studies compared ever v. never breast-fed subjects; the summary RR was 0·87 (95% CI 0·57, 1·32; I²=34·4%) in middle-income and 0·85 (95% CI 0·54, 1·34; I²=79·1%) in high-income settings. The effect of breast-feeding for ≥4-6 months was assessed in ten studies from middle-income (summary RR=0·66; 95% CI 0·44, 0·98; I²=65·7%) and two from high-income countries (summary RR=1·56; 95% CI 0·57, 4·26; I²=68·3%). Two studies assessed the effect of exclusive breast-feeding until 6 months (OR=0·91; 95% CI 0·61, 1·34 and OR=1·71; 95% CI 0·66, 4·47, respectively). Our results suggest a protective effect of breast-feeding in economically less developed settings. However, further research is needed, with a finer assessment of the exposure to breast-feeding and careful control for confounding, before definite conclusions can be reached.

EASING THE PAIN OF AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND EXCESSIVE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION

PubMed Central

DÁVALOS, MARÍA E.; FANG, HAI; FRENCH, MICHAEL T.

2012-01-01

SUMMARY Individuals can react to financial stress in a variety of ways, such as reducing discretionary spending or engaging in risky behaviors. This paper investigates the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions (measured by the unemployment rate in the state of residence) on one type of risky behavior: excessive alcohol consumption. Using unique and recent panel data from Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and estimating fixed-effects models, we find that changes in the unemployment rate are positively related to changes in binge drinking, alcohol-involved driving, and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Some differences are present among demographic groups, primarily in the magnitude of the estimated effects. These results contradict previous studies and suggest that problematic drinking may be an indirect and unfortunate consequence of an economic downturn. PMID:21913282

No evidence of decreased risk of colorectal adenomas with white meat, poultry, and fish intake: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xu, Bin; Sun, Jing; Sun, Yunwei; Huang, Liya; Tang, Yuming; Yuan, Yaozong

2013-04-01

Observational studies on the association between white meat (including fish and poultry) intake and the risk of colorectal adenoma (CRA), the precursor of colorectal cancer, have reported mixed results. To provide a quantitative assessment of this association, we summarized the evidence from observational studies. Relevant studies published on or before April 30, 2012 were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE. Summary effect size estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with a random-effects model. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran Q and I(2) statistics. A total of 23 publications from 21 independent studies (16 case-control and 5 cohort studies) were included in this meta-analysis. Based on high versus low analysis, the summary effect size estimate of CRA was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.84-1.09) for white meat intake, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.80-1.19) for fish intake, and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.80-1.18) for poultry intake. Subgroup analyses revealed that the null associations of CRA with intake of white meat (fish/poultry) were independent of geographic locations, study design, type of food frequency questionnaire, number of cases, and adjustments for confounders, such as body mass index, use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, dietary energy intake, smoking, and physical activity. Intake of white meat (fish/poultry) is not associated with the risk of CRA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing Genetic Pleiotropy with GWAS Summary Statistics for Marginal and Conditional Analyses.

PubMed

Deng, Yangqing; Pan, Wei

2017-12-01

There is growing interest in testing genetic pleiotropy, which is when a single genetic variant influences multiple traits. Several methods have been proposed; however, these methods have some limitations. First, all the proposed methods are based on the use of individual-level genotype and phenotype data; in contrast, for logistical, and other, reasons, summary statistics of univariate SNP-trait associations are typically only available based on meta- or mega-analyzed large genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. Second, existing tests are based on marginal pleiotropy, which cannot distinguish between direct and indirect associations of a single genetic variant with multiple traits due to correlations among the traits. Hence, it is useful to consider conditional analysis, in which a subset of traits is adjusted for another subset of traits. For example, in spite of substantial lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) with statin therapy, some patients still maintain high residual cardiovascular risk, and, for these patients, it might be helpful to reduce their triglyceride (TG) level. For this purpose, in order to identify new therapeutic targets, it would be useful to identify genetic variants with pleiotropic effects on LDL and TG after adjusting the latter for LDL; otherwise, a pleiotropic effect of a genetic variant detected by a marginal model could simply be due to its association with LDL only, given the well-known correlation between the two types of lipids. Here, we develop a new pleiotropy testing procedure based only on GWAS summary statistics that can be applied for both marginal analysis and conditional analysis. Although the main technical development is based on published union-intersection testing methods, care is needed in specifying conditional models to avoid invalid statistical estimation and inference. In addition to the previously used likelihood ratio test, we also propose using generalized estimating equations under the working independence model for robust inference. We provide numerical examples based on both simulated and real data, including two large lipid GWAS summary association datasets based on ∼100,000 and ∼189,000 samples, respectively, to demonstrate the difference between marginal and conditional analyses, as well as the effectiveness of our new approach. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Estimating scaled treatment effects with multiple outcomes.

PubMed

Kennedy, Edward H; Kangovi, Shreya; Mitra, Nandita

2017-01-01

In classical study designs, the aim is often to learn about the effects of a treatment or intervention on a single outcome; in many modern studies, however, data on multiple outcomes are collected and it is of interest to explore effects on multiple outcomes simultaneously. Such designs can be particularly useful in patient-centered research, where different outcomes might be more or less important to different patients. In this paper, we propose scaled effect measures (via potential outcomes) that translate effects on multiple outcomes to a common scale, using mean-variance and median-interquartile range based standardizations. We present efficient, nonparametric, doubly robust methods for estimating these scaled effects (and weighted average summary measures), and for testing the null hypothesis that treatment affects all outcomes equally. We also discuss methods for exploring how treatment effects depend on covariates (i.e., effect modification). In addition to describing efficiency theory for our estimands and the asymptotic behavior of our estimators, we illustrate the methods in a simulation study and a data analysis. Importantly, and in contrast to much of the literature concerning effects on multiple outcomes, our methods are nonparametric and can be used not only in randomized trials to yield increased efficiency, but also in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates to reduce confounding bias.

Self-esteem, social participation, and quality of life in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Mikula, Pavol; Nagyova, Iveta; Krokavcova, Martina; Vitkova, Marianna; Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Szilasiova, Jarmila; Gdovinova, Zuzana; Stewart, Roy E; Groothoff, Johan W; van Dijk, Jitse P

2017-07-01

The aim of this study is to explore whether self-esteem and social participation are associated with the physical and mental quality of life (Physical Component Summary, Mental Component Summary) and whether self-esteem can mediate the association between these variables. We collected information from 118 consecutive multiple sclerosis patients. Age, gender, disease duration, disability status, and participation were significant predictors of Physical Component Summary, explaining 55.4 percent of the total variance. Self-esteem fully mediated the association between social participation and Mental Component Summary (estimate/standard error = -4.872; p < 0.001) and along with disability status explained 48.3 percent of the variance in Mental Component Summary. These results can be used in intervention and educational programs.

IUS/TUG orbital operations and mission support study. Volume 5: Cost estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The costing approach, methodology, and rationale utilized for generating cost data for composite IUS and space tug orbital operations are discussed. Summary cost estimates are given along with cost data initially derived for the IUS program and space tug program individually, and cost estimates for each work breakdown structure element.

Is the virulence of HIV changing? A meta-analysis of trends in prognostic markers of HIV disease progression and transmission

PubMed Central

Herbeck, Joshua T.; Müller, Viktor; Maust, Brandon S.; Ledergerber, Bruno; Torti, Carlo; Di Giambenedetto, Simona; Gras, Luuk; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Mullins, James I.; Gottlieb, Geoffrey S.

2013-01-01

Objective The potential for changing HIV-1 virulence has significant implications for the AIDS epidemic, including changing HIV transmission rates, rapidity of disease progression, and timing of ART. Published data to date have provided conflicting results. Design We conducted a meta-analysis of changes in baseline CD4+ T-cell counts and set point plasma viral RNA load over time in order to establish whether summary trends are consistent with changing HIV-1 virulence. Methods We searched PubMed for studies of trends in HIV-1 prognostic markers of disease progression and supplemented findings with publications referenced in epidemiological or virulence studies. We identified 12 studies of trends in baseline CD4+ T-cell counts (21 052 total individuals), and eight studies of trends in set point viral loads (10 785 total individuals), spanning the years 1984–2010. Using random-effects meta-analysis, we estimated summary effect sizes for trends in HIV-1 plasma viral loads and CD4+ T-cell counts. Results Baseline CD4+ T-cell counts showed a summary trend of decreasing cell counts [effect=−4.93 cells/µl per year, 95% confidence interval (CI) −6.53 to −3.3]. Set point viral loads showed a summary trend of increasing plasma viral RNA loads (effect=0.013 log10 copies/ml per year, 95% CI −0.001 to 0.03). The trend rates decelerated in recent years for both prognostic markers. Conclusion Our results are consistent with increased virulence of HIV-1 over the course of the epidemic. Extrapolating over the 30 years since the first description of AIDS, this represents a CD4+ T cells loss of approximately 148 cells/µl and a gain of 0.39 log10 copies/ml of viral RNA measured during early infection. These effect sizes would predict increasing rates of disease progression, and need for ART as well as increasing transmission risk. PMID:22089381

Cluster randomised crossover trials with binary data and unbalanced cluster sizes: application to studies of near-universal interventions in intensive care.

PubMed

Forbes, Andrew B; Akram, Muhammad; Pilcher, David; Cooper, Jamie; Bellomo, Rinaldo

2015-02-01

Cluster randomised crossover trials have been utilised in recent years in the health and social sciences. Methods for analysis have been proposed; however, for binary outcomes, these have received little assessment of their appropriateness. In addition, methods for determination of sample size are currently limited to balanced cluster sizes both between clusters and between periods within clusters. This article aims to extend this work to unbalanced situations and to evaluate the properties of a variety of methods for analysis of binary data, with a particular focus on the setting of potential trials of near-universal interventions in intensive care to reduce in-hospital mortality. We derive a formula for sample size estimation for unbalanced cluster sizes, and apply it to the intensive care setting to demonstrate the utility of the cluster crossover design. We conduct a numerical simulation of the design in the intensive care setting and for more general configurations, and we assess the performance of three cluster summary estimators and an individual-data estimator based on binomial-identity-link regression. For settings similar to the intensive care scenario involving large cluster sizes and small intra-cluster correlations, the sample size formulae developed and analysis methods investigated are found to be appropriate, with the unweighted cluster summary method performing well relative to the more optimal but more complex inverse-variance weighted method. More generally, we find that the unweighted and cluster-size-weighted summary methods perform well, with the relative efficiency of each largely determined systematically from the study design parameters. Performance of individual-data regression is adequate with small cluster sizes but becomes inefficient for large, unbalanced cluster sizes. When outcome prevalences are 6% or less and the within-cluster-within-period correlation is 0.05 or larger, all methods display sub-nominal confidence interval coverage, with the less prevalent the outcome the worse the coverage. As with all simulation studies, conclusions are limited to the configurations studied. We confined attention to detecting intervention effects on an absolute risk scale using marginal models and did not explore properties of binary random effects models. Cluster crossover designs with binary outcomes can be analysed using simple cluster summary methods, and sample size in unbalanced cluster size settings can be determined using relatively straightforward formulae. However, caution needs to be applied in situations with low prevalence outcomes and moderate to high intra-cluster correlations. © The Author(s) 2014.

Freight Transportation Energy Use : Volume 1. Summary and Baseline Results.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-07-01

The overall design of the TSC Freight Energy Model is presented. A hierarchical modeling strategy is used, in which detailed modal simulators estimate the performance characteristics of transportation network elements, and the estimates are input to ...

Isoniazid Preventive Therapy and Risk for Resistant Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Balcells, Maria Elvira; Thomas, Sara L.; Godfrey-Faussett, Peter

2006-01-01

In the context of tuberculosis (TB) resurgence, isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) is increasingly promoted, but concerns about the risk for development of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis may hinder its widespread implementation. We conducted a systematic review of data published since 1951 to assess the effect of primary IPT on the risk for isoniazid-resistant TB. Different definitions of isoniazid resistance were used, which affected summary effect estimates; we report the most consistent results. When all 13 studies (N = 18,095 persons in isoniazid groups and N = 17,985 persons in control groups) were combined, the summary relative risk for resistance was 1.45 (95% confidence interval 0.85–2.47). Results were similar when studies of HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected persons were considered separately. Analyses were limited by small numbers and incomplete testing of isolates, but findings do not exclude an increased risk for isoniazid-resistant TB after IPT. The diagnosis of active TB should be excluded before IPT. Continued surveillance for isoniazid resistance is essential. PMID:16704830

Multivariate meta-analysis with an increasing number of parameters

PubMed Central

Boca, Simina M.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Sampson, Joshua N.

2017-01-01

Summary Meta-analysis can average estimates of multiple parameters, such as a treatment’s effect on multiple outcomes, across studies. Univariate meta-analysis (UVMA) considers each parameter individually, while multivariate meta-analysis (MVMA) considers the parameters jointly and accounts for the correlation between their estimates. The performance of MVMA and UVMA has been extensively compared in scenarios with two parameters. Our objective is to compare the performance of MVMA and UVMA as the number of parameters, p, increases. Specifically, we show that (i) for fixed-effect meta-analysis, the benefit from using MVMA can substantially increase as p increases; (ii) for random effects meta-analysis, the benefit from MVMA can increase as p increases, but the potential improvement is modest in the presence of high between-study variability and the actual improvement is further reduced by the need to estimate an increasingly large between study covariance matrix; and (iii) when there is little to no between study variability, the loss of efficiency due to choosing random effects MVMA over fixed-effect MVMA increases as p increases. We demonstrate these three features through theory, simulation, and a meta-analysis of risk factors for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma. PMID:28195655

Supporting Data Amended FY 1992/FY 1993 Biennial Budget Estimate Submitted to Congress - January 1992. Descriptive Summaries of the Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, Army Appropriation

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

dessert and snack items to increase acceptability and 31$,) UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED AMENDED FY 1992/1993 BIENNIAL RDTE DESCRIPTIVE SUMMARY Program...Planned Program: " (U) Finalize development of non-organic and non-polluting processing bids for extruded and molded energetic materials * (U

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOR FULL-SCALE DUAL-ALKALI DEMONSTRATION AT LOUISVILLE GAS AND ELECTRIC CO. - PRELIMINARY DESIGN AND COST ESTIMATE

EPA Science Inventory

The report is the executive summary for the preliminary design of the dual-alkali system, designed by Combustion Equipment Associates, Inc./Arthur D. Little, Inc. and being installed to control SO2 emissions from Louisville Gas and Electric Company's Cane Run Unit No. 6 boiler. T...

Rocky Flats Plant Site Environmental Report for 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cirrincione, D.A.; Erdmann, N.L.

1992-12-31

The Rocky Rats Plant Site Environmental Report provides summary information on the plant`s environmental monitoring programs and the results recorded during 1992. The report contains a compliance summary, results of environmental monitoring and other related programs, a review of environmental remediation activities, information on external gamma radiation dose monitoring, and radiation dose estimates for the surrounding population.

Serum Iron Levels and the Risk of Parkinson Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study

PubMed Central

Gögele, Martin; Lill, Christina M.; Bertram, Lars; Do, Chuong B.; Eriksson, Nicholas; Foroud, Tatiana; Myers, Richard H.; Nalls, Michael; Keller, Margaux F.; Benyamin, Beben; Whitfield, John B.; Pramstaller, Peter P.; Hicks, Andrew A.; Thompson, John R.; Minelli, Cosetta

2013-01-01

Background Although levels of iron are known to be increased in the brains of patients with Parkinson disease (PD), epidemiological evidence on a possible effect of iron blood levels on PD risk is inconclusive, with effects reported in opposite directions. Epidemiological studies suffer from problems of confounding and reverse causation, and mendelian randomization (MR) represents an alternative approach to provide unconfounded estimates of the effects of biomarkers on disease. We performed a MR study where genes known to modify iron levels were used as instruments to estimate the effect of iron on PD risk, based on estimates of the genetic effects on both iron and PD obtained from the largest sample meta-analyzed to date. Methods and Findings We used as instrumental variables three genetic variants influencing iron levels, HFE rs1800562, HFE rs1799945, and TMPRSS6 rs855791. Estimates of their effect on serum iron were based on a recent genome-wide meta-analysis of 21,567 individuals, while estimates of their effect on PD risk were obtained through meta-analysis of genome-wide and candidate gene studies with 20,809 PD cases and 88,892 controls. Separate MR estimates of the effect of iron on PD were obtained for each variant and pooled by meta-analysis. We investigated heterogeneity across the three estimates as an indication of possible pleiotropy and found no evidence of it. The combined MR estimate showed a statistically significant protective effect of iron, with a relative risk reduction for PD of 3% (95% CI 1%–6%; p = 0.001) per 10 µg/dl increase in serum iron. Conclusions Our study suggests that increased iron levels are causally associated with a decreased risk of developing PD. Further studies are needed to understand the pathophysiological mechanism of action of serum iron on PD risk before recommendations can be made. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23750121

Challenges in Species Tree Estimation Under the Multispecies Coalescent Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Bo; Yang, Ziheng

2016-01-01

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model has emerged as a powerful framework for inferring species phylogenies while accounting for ancestral polymorphism and gene tree-species tree conflict. A number of methods have been developed in the past few years to estimate the species tree under the MSC. The full likelihood methods (including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference) average over the unknown gene trees and accommodate their uncertainties properly but involve intensive computation. The approximate or summary coalescent methods are computationally fast and are applicable to genomic datasets with thousands of loci, but do not make an efficient use of information in the multilocus data. Most of them take the two-step approach of reconstructing the gene trees for multiple loci by phylogenetic methods and then treating the estimated gene trees as observed data, without accounting for their uncertainties appropriately. In this article we review the statistical nature of the species tree estimation problem under the MSC, and explore the conceptual issues and challenges of species tree estimation by focusing mainly on simple cases of three or four closely related species. We use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to demonstrate that large differences in statistical performance may exist between the two classes of methods. We illustrate that several counterintuitive behaviors may occur with the summary methods but they are due to inefficient use of information in the data by summary methods and vanish when the data are analyzed using full-likelihood methods. These include (i) unidentifiability of parameters in the model, (ii) inconsistency in the so-called anomaly zone, (iii) singularity on the likelihood surface, and (iv) deterioration of performance upon addition of more data. We discuss the challenges and strategies of species tree inference for distantly related species when the molecular clock is violated, and highlight the need for improving the computational efficiency and model realism of the likelihood methods as well as the statistical efficiency of the summary methods. PMID:27927902

Cancer incidence attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors in Alberta in 2012: summary of results

PubMed Central

Grundy, Anne; Poirier, Abbey E.; Khandwala, Farah; Grevers, Xin; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Brenner, Darren R.

2017-01-01

Background: Estimates of the proportion of cancer cases that can be attributed to modifiable risk factors are not available for Canada and, more specifically, Alberta. The purpose of this study was to estimate the total proportion of cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 that could be attributed to a set of 24 modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. Methods: We estimated summary population attributable risk estimates for 24 risk factors (smoking [both passive and active], overweight and obesity, inadequate physical activity, diet [inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption, inadequate fibre intake, excess red and processed meat consumption, salt consumption, inadequate calcium and vitamin D intake], alcohol, hormones [oral contraceptives and hormone therapy], infections [Epstein-Barr virus, hepatitis B and C viruses, human papillomavirus, Helicobacter pylori], air pollution, natural and artificial ultraviolet radiation, radon and water disinfection by-products) by combining population attributable risk estimates for each of the 24 factors that had been previously estimated. To account for the possibility that individual cancer cases were the result of a combination of multiple risk factors, we subtracted the population attributable risk for the first factor from 100% and then applied the population attributable risk for the second factor to the remaining proportion that was not attributable to the first factor. We repeated this process in sequential order for all relevant exposures. Results: Overall, an estimated 40.8% of cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 were attributable to modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. The largest proportion of cancers were estimated to be attributable to tobacco smoking, physical inactivity and excess body weight. The summary population attributable risk estimate was slightly higher among women (42.4%) than among men (38.7%). Interpretation: About 41% of cancer cases in Alberta may be attributable to known modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. Reducing the prevalence of these factors in the Alberta population has the potential to substantially reduce the provincial cancer burden. PMID:28687643

Effectiveness of phylogenomic data and coalescent species-tree methods for resolving difficult nodes in the phylogeny of advanced snakes (Serpentes: Caenophidia).

PubMed

Pyron, R Alexander; Hendry, Catriona R; Chou, Vincent M; Lemmon, Emily M; Lemmon, Alan R; Burbrink, Frank T

2014-12-01

Next-generation genomic sequencing promises to quickly and cheaply resolve remaining contentious nodes in the Tree of Life, and facilitates species-tree estimation while taking into account stochastic genealogical discordance among loci. Recent methods for estimating species trees bypass full likelihood-based estimates of the multi-species coalescent, and approximate the true species-tree using simpler summary metrics. These methods converge on the true species-tree with sufficient genomic sampling, even in the anomaly zone. However, no studies have yet evaluated their efficacy on a large-scale phylogenomic dataset, and compared them to previous concatenation strategies. Here, we generate such a dataset for Caenophidian snakes, a group with >2500 species that contains several rapid radiations that were poorly resolved with fewer loci. We generate sequence data for 333 single-copy nuclear loci with ∼100% coverage (∼0% missing data) for 31 major lineages. We estimate phylogenies using neighbor joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and three summary species-tree approaches (NJst, STAR, and MP-EST). All methods yield similar resolution and support for most nodes. However, not all methods support monophyly of Caenophidia, with Acrochordidae placed as the sister taxon to Pythonidae in some analyses. Thus, phylogenomic species-tree estimation may occasionally disagree with well-supported relationships from concatenated analyses of small numbers of nuclear or mitochondrial genes, a consideration for future studies. In contrast for at least two diverse, rapid radiations (Lamprophiidae and Colubridae), phylogenomic data and species-tree inference do little to improve resolution and support. Thus, certain nodes may lack strong signal, and larger datasets and more sophisticated analyses may still fail to resolve them. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission’s Blended Retirement Plan: Implications for Marine Corps Force Management Objectives

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

short- and long-term finances of individual AC Marines. Here, we analyze how the BRS is expected to affect annual take-home pay (associated with...profile enough to require mitigating strategies. We also estimated the BRS’s effect on the short- and long-term finances of individual... Corporation . Monograph MG-764-OSD. 122 [13] Hudson, Rex, and Alice R. Buchalter. 2007. A Summary of Major Military Retirement Reform

Estimation of delays and other parameters in nonlinear functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, H. T.; Lamm, P. K. D.

1983-01-01

A spline-based approximation scheme for nonlinear nonautonomous delay differential equations is discussed. Convergence results (using dissipative type estimates on the underlying nonlinear operators) are given in the context of parameter estimation problems which include estimation of multiple delays and initial data as well as the usual coefficient-type parameters. A brief summary of some of the related numerical findings is also given.

Department of the Navy Supporting Data for Fiscal Year 1984 Budget Estimates Descriptive Summaries Submitted to Congress January 1983. Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, Navy. Book 2. Tactical Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

SUMMARY: (ollars in Thouesands) The changes between the funding profile shown in the FY 1983 Descriptive Summary and that shown in this De ,,criptive...System (ONAV Report Symbol 3960-12 b. I April 1982 MOSC Test Report Joint Tactical Information Distribution System Phase II (Distributed Time De -ision...Vehicle Tricked (LVTP7) 453 - - - 5,728 Product Improvement C0021 Landing Vehicle Tracked-Al - - - 2,848*, TBD TED C0061 Battlefield Surveillance De -vices

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. Country summary report, Australia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henninger, D. L.; Reed, C. R. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Australia is one of the world's major growers and exporters of wheat and as such is one of the countries of interest in the AgRISTARS program which endeavors to develop technology to estimate crop production using aerospace remote sensing. A compilation of geographic, political, and agricultural information on Australia is presented. Also included is a summary of the aerospace remote sensing, meteorological, and ground-observed data which were collected with respect to Australia, as well as a summary of contacts between AgRISTARS and Australia personnel.

Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

Photogrammetry and Laser Imagery Tests for Tank Waste Volume Estimates: Summary Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, Jim G.

2013-03-27

Feasibility tests were conducted using photogrammetry and laser technologies to estimate the volume of waste in a tank. These technologies were compared with video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates; the current method used for post-retrieval waste volume estimates. This report summarizes test results and presents recommendations for further development and deployment of technologies to provide more accurate and faster waste volume estimates in support of tank retrieval and closure.

Difference between age-related macular degeneration and polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy in the hereditary contribution of the A69S variant of the age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 gene (ARMS2).

PubMed

Yanagisawa, Suiho; Kondo, Naoshi; Miki, Akiko; Matsumiya, Wataru; Kusuhara, Sentaro; Tsukahara, Yasutomo; Honda, Shigeru; Negi, Akira

2011-01-01

To investigate whether the A69S variant of the age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 gene (ARMS2) has a different hereditary contribution in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV). We initially conducted a comparative genetic analysis of neovascular AMD and PCV, genotyping the ARMS2 A69S variant in 181 subjects with neovascular AMD, 198 subjects with PCV, and 203 controls in a Japanese population. Genotyping was conducted using TaqMan technology. Results were then integrated into a meta-analysis of previous studies representing an assessment of the association between the ARMS2 A69S variant and neovascular AMD and/or PCV, comprising a total of 3,828 subjects of Asian descent. The Q-statistic test was used to assess between-study heterogeneity. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a fixed effects model. The genetic effect of the A69S variant was stronger in neovascular AMD (allelic summary OR=3.09 [95% CI, 2.71-3.51], fixed effects p<0.001) than in PCV (allelic summary OR=2.13 [95% CI, 1.91-2.38], fixed effects p<0.001). The pooled risk allele frequency was significantly higher in neovascular AMD (64.7%) than in PCV (55.6%). The population attributable risks for the variant allele were estimated to be 43.9% (95% CI, 39.0%-48.4%) and 29.7% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.0%) for neovascular AMD and PCV, respectively. No significant between-study heterogeneity was observed in any statistical analysis in this meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis provides substantial evidence that the ARMS2 A69S variant confers a significantly higher risk of neovascular AMD than PCV. Furthermore, there is compelling evidence that the risk attributable to the A69S variant differs between geographic atrophy and neovascular AMD. Together with defining the molecular basis of susceptibility, understanding the relationships between this genomic region and disease subtypes will yield important insights, elucidating the biologic architecture of this phenotypically heterogeneous disorder.

Improved enteral tolerance following step procedure: systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fernandes, Melissa A; Usatin, Danielle; Allen, Isabel E; Rhee, Sue; Vu, Lan

2016-10-01

Surgical management of children with short bowel syndrome (SBS) changed with the introduction of the serial transverse enteroplasty procedure (STEP). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using MEDLINE and SCOPUS to determine if children with SBS had improved enteral tolerance following STEP. Studies were included if information about a child's pre- and post-STEP enteral tolerance was provided. A random effects meta-analysis provided a summary estimate of the proportion of children with enteral tolerance increase following STEP. From 766 abstracts, seven case series involving 86 children were included. Mean percent tolerance of enteral nutrition improved from 35.1 to 69.5. Sixteen children had no enteral improvement following STEP. A summary estimate showed that 87 % (95 % CI 77-95 %) of children who underwent STEP had an increase in enteral tolerance. Compilation of the literature supports the belief that SBS subjects' enteral tolerance improves following STEP. Enteral nutritional tolerance is a measure of efficacy of STEP and should be presented as a primary or secondary outcome. By standardizing data collection on children undergoing STEP procedure, better determination of nutritional benefit from STEP can be ascertained.

Estimated reductions in hospitalizations and deaths from childhood diarrhea following implementation of rotavirus vaccination in Africa.

PubMed

Shah, Minesh P; Tate, Jacqueline E; Mwenda, Jason M; Steele, A Duncan; Parashar, Umesh D

2017-10-01

Rotavirus is the leading cause of hospitalizations and deaths from diarrhea. 33 African countries had introduced rotavirus vaccines by 2016. We estimate reductions in rotavirus hospitalizations and deaths for countries using rotavirus vaccination in national immunization programs and the potential of vaccine introduction across the continent. Areas covered: Regional rotavirus burden data were reviewed to calculate hospitalization rates, and applied to under-5 population to estimate baseline hospitalizations. Rotavirus mortality was based on 2013 WHO estimates. Regional pre-licensure vaccine efficacy and post-introduction vaccine effectiveness studies were used to estimate summary effectiveness, and vaccine coverage was applied to calculate prevented hospitalizations and deaths. Uncertainties around input parameters were propagated using boot-strapping simulations. In 29 African countries that introduced rotavirus vaccination prior to end 2014, 134,714 (IQR 112,321-154,654) hospitalizations and 20,986 (IQR 18,924-22,822) deaths were prevented in 2016. If all African countries had introduced rotavirus vaccines at benchmark immunization coverage, 273,619 (47%) (IQR 227,260-318,102) hospitalizations and 47,741 (39%) (IQR 42,822-52,462) deaths would have been prevented. Expert commentary: Rotavirus vaccination has substantially reduced hospitalizations and deaths in Africa; further reductions are anticipated as additional countries implement vaccination. These estimates bolster wider introduction and continued support of rotavirus vaccination programs.

Parameter redundancy in discrete state-space and integrated models.

PubMed

Cole, Diana J; McCrea, Rachel S

2016-09-01

Discrete state-space models are used in ecology to describe the dynamics of wild animal populations, with parameters, such as the probability of survival, being of ecological interest. For a particular parametrization of a model it is not always clear which parameters can be estimated. This inability to estimate all parameters is known as parameter redundancy or a model is described as nonidentifiable. In this paper we develop methods that can be used to detect parameter redundancy in discrete state-space models. An exhaustive summary is a combination of parameters that fully specify a model. To use general methods for detecting parameter redundancy a suitable exhaustive summary is required. This paper proposes two methods for the derivation of an exhaustive summary for discrete state-space models using discrete analogues of methods for continuous state-space models. We also demonstrate that combining multiple data sets, through the use of an integrated population model, may result in a model in which all parameters are estimable, even though models fitted to the separate data sets may be parameter redundant. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Adapt-Mix: learning local genetic correlation structure improves summary statistics-based analyses

PubMed Central

Park, Danny S.; Brown, Brielin; Eng, Celeste; Huntsman, Scott; Hu, Donglei; Torgerson, Dara G.; Burchard, Esteban G.; Zaitlen, Noah

2015-01-01

Motivation: Approaches to identifying new risk loci, training risk prediction models, imputing untyped variants and fine-mapping causal variants from summary statistics of genome-wide association studies are playing an increasingly important role in the human genetics community. Current summary statistics-based methods rely on global ‘best guess’ reference panels to model the genetic correlation structure of the dataset being studied. This approach, especially in admixed populations, has the potential to produce misleading results, ignores variation in local structure and is not feasible when appropriate reference panels are missing or small. Here, we develop a method, Adapt-Mix, that combines information across all available reference panels to produce estimates of local genetic correlation structure for summary statistics-based methods in arbitrary populations. Results: We applied Adapt-Mix to estimate the genetic correlation structure of both admixed and non-admixed individuals using simulated and real data. We evaluated our method by measuring the performance of two summary statistics-based methods: imputation and joint-testing. When using our method as opposed to the current standard of ‘best guess’ reference panels, we observed a 28% decrease in mean-squared error for imputation and a 73.7% decrease in mean-squared error for joint-testing. Availability and implementation: Our method is publicly available in a software package called ADAPT-Mix available at https://github.com/dpark27/adapt_mix. Contact: noah.zaitlen@ucsf.edu PMID:26072481

Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus M.; Menzies, Tim

2006-01-01

Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

The State of the World's Children, 1993. Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, James P.

This document is a summary of a report that argues that despite all the problems of the post cold war world, the means are now at hand to end mass malnutrition, preventable disease, and widespread illiteracy among the world's children at an estimated cost of $25 billion per year in additional aid to developing nations. To give this cause priority,…

Improved Use of Small Reference Panels for Conditional and Joint Analysis with GWAS Summary Statistics.

PubMed

Deng, Yangqing; Pan, Wei

2018-06-01

Due to issues of practicality and confidentiality of genomic data sharing on a large scale, typically only meta- or mega-analyzed genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data, not individual-level data, are publicly available. Reanalyses of such GWAS summary data for a wide range of applications have become more and more common and useful, which often require the use of an external reference panel with individual-level genotypic data to infer linkage disequilibrium (LD) among genetic variants. However, with a small sample size in only hundreds, as for the most popular 1000 Genomes Project European sample, estimation errors for LD are not negligible, leading to often dramatically increased numbers of false positives in subsequent analyses of GWAS summary data. To alleviate the problem in the context of association testing for a group of SNPs, we propose an alternative estimator of the covariance matrix with an idea similar to multiple imputation. We use numerical examples based on both simulated and real data to demonstrate the severe problem with the use of the 1000 Genomes Project reference panels, and the improved performance of our new approach. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

Estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1996 : national totals and selected inland waterways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-01

In order to provide waterborne commerce information as soon as possible, the Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center (WCSC) has prepared this summary document of estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1996. The foreign import and ex...

Estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1998 : national totals and selected inland waterways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-30

In order to provide waterborne commerce information as soon as possible, the Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center(WCSC) has prepared this summary document of estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1998. The foreign import and exp...

Instrumental variable methods in comparative safety and effectiveness research†

PubMed Central

Brookhart, M. Alan; Rassen, Jeremy A.; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2010-01-01

Summary Instrumental variable (IV) methods have been proposed as a potential approach to the common problem of uncontrolled confounding in comparative studies of medical interventions, but IV methods are unfamiliar to many researchers. The goal of this article is to provide a non-technical, practical introduction to IV methods for comparative safety and effectiveness research. We outline the principles and basic assumptions necessary for valid IV estimation, discuss how to interpret the results of an IV study, provide a review of instruments that have been used in comparative effectiveness research, and suggest some minimal reporting standards for an IV analysis. Finally, we offer our perspective of the role of IV estimation vis-à-vis more traditional approaches based on statistical modeling of the exposure or outcome. We anticipate that IV methods will be often underpowered for drug safety studies of very rare outcomes, but may be potentially useful in studies of intended effects where uncontrolled confounding may be substantial. PMID:20354968

Intersatellite Link (ISL) application to commercial communications satellites. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, S. Lee

1987-01-01

Based on a comprehensive evaluation of the fundamental Intersatellite Link (ISL) systems characteristics, potential applications of ISLs to domestic, regional, and global commercial satellite communications were identified, and their cost-effectiveness and other systems benefits quantified wherever possible. Implementation scenarios for the cost-effective communications satellite systems employing ISLs were developed for the first launch in 1993 to 1994 and widespread use of ISLs in the early 2000's. Critical technology requirements for both the microwave (60 GHz) and optical (0.85 micron) ISL implementations were identified, and their technology development programs, including schedule and cost estimates, were derived.

Determinants of birth intervals in Kerala: an application of Cox's hazard model.

PubMed

Nair, S N

1996-01-01

"The present study is an attempt to delineate the differences in the patterns and determinants of birth intervals which appear highly relevant in a transitional population such as Kerala [India]. In this country two comparable surveys, with a period difference of 20 years, were conducted. The study tries to estimate the effects of socio-economic, demographic and proximate variables using Cox's proportional hazard model. For the former data-set, socio-economic variables have [a] significant effect on birth intervals, while for the latter data proximate variables are the significant determinants of birth intervals." (SUMMARY IN ITA AND FRE) excerpt

Quantile Regression for Recurrent Gap Time Data

PubMed Central

Luo, Xianghua; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Lan

2014-01-01

Summary Evaluating covariate effects on gap times between successive recurrent events is of interest in many medical and public health studies. While most existing methods for recurrent gap time analysis focus on modeling the hazard function of gap times, a direct interpretation of the covariate effects on the gap times is not available through these methods. In this article, we consider quantile regression that can provide direct assessment of covariate effects on the quantiles of the gap time distribution. Following the spirit of the weighted risk-set method by Luo and Huang (2011, Statistics in Medicine 30, 301–311), we extend the martingale-based estimating equation method considered by Peng and Huang (2008, Journal of the American Statistical Association 103, 637–649) for univariate survival data to analyze recurrent gap time data. The proposed estimation procedure can be easily implemented in existing software for univariate censored quantile regression. Uniform consistency and weak convergence of the proposed estimators are established. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. An application to data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this article. PMID:23489055

Association of residential dampness and mold with respiratory tract infections and bronchitis: a meta-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisk, William J.; Eliseeva, Ekaterina A.; Mendell, Mark J.

Dampness and mold have been shown in qualitative reviews to be associated with a variety of adverse respiratory health effects, including respiratory tract infections. Several published meta-analyses have provided quantitative summaries for some of these associations, but not for respiratory infections. Demonstrating a causal relationship between dampness-related agents, which are preventable exposures, and respiratory tract infections would suggest important new public health strategies. We report the results of quantitative meta-analyses of published studies that examined the association of dampness or mold in homes with respiratory infections and bronchitis. For primary studies meeting eligibility criteria, we transformed reported odds ratios (ORs)more » and confidence intervals (CIs) to the log scale. Both fixed and random effects models were applied to the log ORs and their variances. Most studies contained multiple estimated ORs. Models accounted for the correlation between multiple results within the studies analyzed. One set of analyses was performed with all eligible studies, and another set restricted to studies that controlled for age, gender, smoking, and socioeconomic status. Subgroups of studies were assessed to explore heterogeneity. Funnel plots were used to assess publication bias. The resulting summary estimates of ORs from random effects models based on all studies ranged from 1.38 to 1.50, with 95% CIs excluding the null in all cases. Use of different analysis models and restricting analyses based on control of multiple confounding variables changed findings only slightly. ORs (95% CIs) from random effects models using studies adjusting for major confounding variables were, for bronchitis, 1.45 (1.32-1.59); for respiratory infections, 1.44 (1.31-1.59); for respiratory infections excluding nonspecific upper respiratory infections, 1.50 (1.32-1.70), and for respiratory infections in children or infants, 1.48 (1.33-1.65). Little effect of publication bias was evident. Estimated attributable risk proportions ranged from 8% to 20%. Residential dampness and mold are associated with substantial and statistically significant increases in both respiratory infections and bronchitis. If these associations were confirmed as causal, effective control of dampness and mold in buildings would prevent a substantial proportion of respiratory infections.« less

Estimating and bidding for the Space Station Processing Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Joseph A.

1993-01-01

This new, unique Cost Engineering Report introduces the 800-page, C-100 government estimate for the Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) and Volume IV Aerospace Construction Price Book. At the January 23, 1991, bid opening for the SSPF, the government cost estimate was right on target. Metric, Inc., Prime Contractor, low bid was 1.2 percent below the government estimate. This project contains many different and complex systems. Volume IV is a summary of the cost associated with construction, activation and Ground Support Equipment (GSE) design, estimating, fabrication, installation, testing, termination, and verification of this project. Included are 13 reasons the government estimate was so accurate; abstract of bids, for 8 bidders and government estimate with additive alternates, special labor and materials, budget comparison and system summaries; and comments on the energy credit from local electrical utility. This report adds another project to our continuing study of 'How Does the Low Bidder Get Low and Make Money?' which was started in 1967, and first published in the 1973 AACE Transaction with 10 more ways the low bidder got low. The accuracy of this estimate proves the benefits of our Kennedy Space Center (KSC) teamwork efforts and KSC Cost Engineer Tools which are contributing toward our goals of the Space Station.

Interpretive front-of-pack nutrition labels. Comparing competing recommendations.

PubMed

Maubach, Ninya; Hoek, Janet; Mather, Damien

2014-11-01

Many stakeholders support introducing an interpretive front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition label, but disagree over the form it should take. In late 2012, an expert working group established by the New Zealand government recommended the adoption of an untested summary rating system: a Star label. This study used a best-worst scaling choice experiment to estimate how labels featuring the new Star rating, the Multiple Traffic Light (MTL), Daily Intake Guide (DIG), and a no-FOP control affected consumers' choice behaviours and product perceptions. Nutrient-content and health claims were included in the design. We also assessed whether respondents who used more or less information during the choice tasks differed in their selection patterns. Overall, while respondents made broadly similar choices with respect to the MTL and Star labels, the MTL format had a significantly greater impact on depressing preference as a food's nutritional profile became less healthy. Health claims increased rankings of less nutritious options, though this effect was less pronounced when the products featured an MTL. Further, respondents were best able to differentiate products' healthiness with MTL labels. The proposed summary Stars system had less effect on choice patterns than an MTL label and our findings highlight the need for policy makers to ensure that decisions to introduce FOP labels are underpinned by robust research evidence. These results suggest that the proposed summary Stars system will have less effect on shifting food choice patterns than interpretive FOP nutrition label featuring traffic light ratings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequential sentinel SNP Regional Association Plots (SSS-RAP): an approach for testing independence of SNP association signals using meta-analysis data.

PubMed

Zheng, Jie; Gaunt, Tom R; Day, Ian N M

2013-01-01

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) frequently incorporate meta-analysis within their framework. However, conditional analysis of individual-level data, which is an established approach for fine mapping of causal sites, is often precluded where only group-level summary data are available for analysis. Here, we present a numerical and graphical approach, "sequential sentinel SNP regional association plot" (SSS-RAP), which estimates regression coefficients (beta) with their standard errors using the meta-analysis summary results directly. Under an additive model, typical for genes with small effect, the effect for a sentinel SNP can be transformed to the predicted effect for a possibly dependent SNP through a 2×2 2-SNP haplotypes table. The approach assumes Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium for test SNPs. SSS-RAP is available as a Web-tool (http://apps.biocompute.org.uk/sssrap/sssrap.cgi). To develop and illustrate SSS-RAP we analyzed lipid and ECG traits data from the British Women's Heart and Health Study (BWHHS), evaluated a meta-analysis for ECG trait and presented several simulations. We compared results with existing approaches such as model selection methods and conditional analysis. Generally findings were consistent. SSS-RAP represents a tool for testing independence of SNP association signals using meta-analysis data, and is also a convenient approach based on biological principles for fine mapping in group level summary data. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University College London.

A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMIC MODEL OF ALCOHOL ADVERTISING AND PRICE

PubMed Central

SAFFER, HENRY; DAVE, DHAVAL; GROSSMAN, MICHAEL

2016-01-01

SUMMARY This paper presents a new empirical study of the effects of televised alcohol advertising and alcohol price on alcohol consumption. A novel feature of this study is that the empirical work is guided by insights from behavioral economic theory. Unlike the theory used in most prior studies, this theory predicts that restriction on alcohol advertising on TV would be more effective in reducing consumption for individuals with high consumption levels but less effective for individuals with low consumption levels. The estimation work employs data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the empirical model is estimated with quantile regressions. The results show that advertising has a small positive effect on consumption and that this effect is relatively larger at high consumption levels. The continuing importance of alcohol taxes is also supported. Education is employed as a proxy for self-regulation, and the results are consistent with this assumption. The key conclusion is that restrictions on alcohol advertising on TV would have a small negative effect on drinking, and this effect would be larger for heavy drinkers. PMID:25919364

Performance of the high-sensitivity troponin assay in diagnosing acute myocardial infarction: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Al-Saleh, Ayman; Alazzoni, Ashraf; Al Shalash, Saleh; Ye, Chenglin; Mbuagbaw, Lawrence; Thabane, Lehana; Jolly, Sanjit S.

2014-01-01

Background High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays have been adopted by many clinical centres worldwide; however, clinicians are uncertain how to interpret the results. We sought to assess the utility of these assays in diagnosing acute myocardial infarction (MI). Methods We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing high-sensitivity with conventional assays of cardiac troponin levels among adults with suspected acute MI in the emergency department. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases up to April 2013 and used bivariable random-effects modelling to obtain summary parameters for diagnostic accuracy. Results We identified 9 studies that assessed the use of high-sensitivity troponin T assays (n = 9186 patients). The summary sensitivity of these tests in diagnosing acute MI at presentation to the emergency department was estimated to be 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89–0.97); for conventional tests, it was 0.72 (95% CI 0.63–0.79). The summary specificity was 0.73 (95% CI 0.64–0.81) for the high-sensitivity assay compared with 0.95 (95% CI 0.93–0.97) for the conventional assay. The differences in estimates of the summary sensitivity and specificity between the high-sensitivity and conventional assays were statistically significant (p < 0.01). The area under the curve was similar for both tests carried out 3–6 hours after presentation. Three studies assessed the use of high-sensitivity troponin I assays and showed similar results. Interpretation Used at presentation to the emergency department, the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assay has improved sensitivity, but reduced specificity, compared with the conventional troponin assay. With repeated measurements over 6 hours, the area under the curve is similar for both tests, indicating that the major advantage of the high-sensitivity test is early diagnosis. PMID:25295240

Diagnostic accuracy of fractional exhaled nitric oxide measurement in predicting cough-variant asthma and eosinophilic bronchitis in adults with chronic cough: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Song, Woo-Jung; Kim, Hyun Jung; Shim, Ji-Su; Won, Ha-Kyeong; Kang, Sung-Yoon; Sohn, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Byung-Keun; Jo, Eun-Jung; Kim, Min-Hye; Kim, Sang-Heon; Park, Heung-Woo; Kim, Sun-Sin; Chang, Yoon-Seok; Morice, Alyn H; Lee, Byung-Jae; Cho, Sang-Heon

2017-09-01

Individual studies have suggested the utility of fractional exhaled nitric oxide (Feno) measurement in detecting cough-variant asthma (CVA) and eosinophilic bronchitis (EB) in patients with chronic cough. We sought to obtain summary estimates of diagnostic test accuracy of Feno measurement in predicting CVA, EB, or both in adults with chronic cough. Electronic databases were searched for studies published until January 2016, without language restriction. Cross-sectional studies that reported the diagnostic accuracy of Feno measurement for detecting CVA or EB were included. Risk of bias was assessed with Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2. Random effects meta-analyses were performed to obtain summary estimates of the diagnostic accuracy of Feno measurement. A total of 15 studies involving 2187 adults with chronic cough were identified. Feno measurement had a moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting CVA in patients with chronic cough, showing the summary area under the curve to be 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89). Specificity was higher and more consistent than sensitivity (0.85 [95% CI, 0.81-0.88] and 0.72 [95% CI, 0.61-0.81], respectively). However, in the nonasthmatic population with chronic cough, the diagnostic accuracy to predict EB was found to be relatively lower (summary area under the curve, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.77-0.84]), and specificity was inconsistent. The present meta-analyses indicated the diagnostic potential of Feno measurement as a rule-in test for detecting CVA in adult patients with chronic cough. However, Feno measurement may not be useful to predict EB in nonasthmatic subjects with chronic cough. These findings warrant further studies to validate the roles of Feno measurement in clinical practice of patients with chronic cough. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculating summary statistics for population chemical biomonitoring in women of childbearing age with adjustment for age-specific natality.

PubMed

Axelrad, Daniel A; Cohen, Jonathan

2011-01-01

The effects of chemical exposures during pregnancy on children's health have been an increasing focus of environmental health research in recent years, leading to greater interest in biomonitoring of chemicals in women of childbearing age in the general population. Measurements of mercury in blood from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are frequently reported for "women of childbearing age," defined to be of ages 16-49 years. The intent is to represent prenatal chemical exposure, but blood mercury levels increase with age. Furthermore, women of different ages have different probabilities of giving birth. We evaluated options to address potential bias in biomonitoring summary statistics for women of childbearing age by accounting for age-specific probabilities of giving birth. We calculated median and 95th percentile levels of mercury, PCBs, and cotinine using these approaches: option 1: women aged 16-49 years without natality adjustment; option 2: women aged 16-39 years without natality adjustment; option 3: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age; option 4: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age and race/ethnicity. Among the three chemicals examined, the choice of option has the greatest impact on estimated levels of serum PCBs, which are strongly associated with age. Serum cotinine levels among Black non-Hispanic women of childbearing age are understated when age-specific natality is not considered. For characterizing in utero exposures, adjustment using age-specific natality provides a substantial improvement in estimation of biomonitoring summary statistics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimates of Shear Stress and Measurements of Water Levels in the Lower Fox River near Green Bay, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westenbroek, Stephen M.

2006-01-01

Turbulent shear stress in the boundary layer of a natural river system largely controls the deposition and resuspension of sediment, as well as the longevity and effectiveness of granular-material caps used to cover and isolate contaminated sediments. This report documents measurements and calculations made in order to estimate shear stress and shear velocity on the Lower Fox River, Wisconsin. Velocity profiles were generated using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) mounted on a moored vessel. This method of data collection yielded 158 velocity profiles on the Lower Fox River between June 2003 and November 2004. Of these profiles, 109 were classified as valid and were used to estimate the bottom shear stress and velocity using log-profile and turbulent kinetic energy methods. Estimated shear stress ranged from 0.09 to 10.8 dynes per centimeter squared. Estimated coefficients of friction ranged from 0.001 to 0.025. This report describes both the field and data-analysis methods used to estimate shear-stress parameters for the Lower Fox River. Summaries of the estimated values for bottom shear stress, shear velocity, and coefficient of friction are presented. Confidence intervals about the shear-stress estimates are provided.

Supporting Data FY 1991 Amended Budget Estimate Submitted to Congress - January 1990: Descriptive Summaries of the Research Development Test and Evaluation Army Appropriation

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

PERFORMED BY: In-house efforts accomplished by Program Executive Officer for Air De - fense Systems, Program Manager-Line of Sight-Forward- Heavy and U.S...evaluation of mechanisms involved in the recovery of heavy metals from waste sludges * (U) Complete determination of basic mechanisms responsible for...tities for characterization " (U) Refined computer model for design of effective heavy metal spin-insensitive EFP war- head liner * (U) Identified

Development of a Navy Hearing Conservation Management Information System (HECMIS).

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-11-01

FLORIDA 32508-5700 I,. * EJLECTE , APR 16 1985 ,..~’ 𔃾..: N" * t.K’:: * 9* .i JI>.iK . 𔃻 7--- K.’ SUMMARY PAGE THE PROBr.EM Currently , naval hearing...structure to act -9 upon the data in the manner defined in current NAVMEDCOM and OPNAV directives (1,2), and an effective computer based management...be estimated on the basis of hearing loss compensation claims. Claims paid through 1978 when none of the aforementioned elements existed in the Navy

Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

1978-01-01

Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

Estimation of discontinuous coefficients in parabolic systems: Applications to reservoir simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamm, P. D.

1984-01-01

Spline based techniques for estimating spatially varying parameters that appear in parabolic distributed systems (typical of those found in reservoir simulation problems) are presented. The problem of determining discontinuous coefficients, estimating both the functional shape and points of discontinuity for such parameters is discussed. Convergence results and a summary of numerical performance of the resulting algorithms are given.

Estimating summary statistics for electronic health record laboratory data for use in high-throughput phenotyping algorithms

PubMed Central

Elhadad, N.; Claassen, J.; Perotte, R.; Goldstein, A.; Hripcsak, G.

2018-01-01

We study the question of how to represent or summarize raw laboratory data taken from an electronic health record (EHR) using parametric model selection to reduce or cope with biases induced through clinical care. It has been previously demonstrated that the health care process (Hripcsak and Albers, 2012, 2013), as defined by measurement context (Hripcsak and Albers, 2013; Albers et al., 2012) and measurement patterns (Albers and Hripcsak, 2010, 2012), can influence how EHR data are distributed statistically (Kohane and Weber, 2013; Pivovarov et al., 2014). We construct an algorithm, PopKLD, which is based on information criterion model selection (Burnham and Anderson, 2002; Claeskens and Hjort, 2008), is intended to reduce and cope with health care process biases and to produce an intuitively understandable continuous summary. The PopKLD algorithm can be automated and is designed to be applicable in high-throughput settings; for example, the output of the PopKLD algorithm can be used as input for phenotyping algorithms. Moreover, we develop the PopKLD-CAT algorithm that transforms the continuous PopKLD summary into a categorical summary useful for applications that require categorical data such as topic modeling. We evaluate our methodology in two ways. First, we apply the method to laboratory data collected in two different health care contexts, primary versus intensive care. We show that the PopKLD preserves known physiologic features in the data that are lost when summarizing the data using more common laboratory data summaries such as mean and standard deviation. Second, for three disease-laboratory measurement pairs, we perform a phenotyping task: we use the PopKLD and PopKLD-CAT algorithms to define high and low values of the laboratory variable that are used for defining a disease state. We then compare the relationship between the PopKLD-CAT summary disease predictions and the same predictions using empirically estimated mean and standard deviation to a gold standard generated by clinical review of patient records. We find that the PopKLD laboratory data summary is substantially better at predicting disease state. The PopKLD or PopKLD-CAT algorithms are not meant to be used as phenotyping algorithms, but we use the phenotyping task to show what information can be gained when using a more informative laboratory data summary. In the process of evaluation our method we show that the different clinical contexts and laboratory measurements necessitate different statistical summaries. Similarly, leveraging the principle of maximum entropy we argue that while some laboratory data only have sufficient information to estimate a mean and standard deviation, other laboratory data captured in an EHR contain substantially more information than can be captured in higher-parameter models. PMID:29369797

Estimating summary statistics for electronic health record laboratory data for use in high-throughput phenotyping algorithms.

PubMed

Albers, D J; Elhadad, N; Claassen, J; Perotte, R; Goldstein, A; Hripcsak, G

2018-02-01

We study the question of how to represent or summarize raw laboratory data taken from an electronic health record (EHR) using parametric model selection to reduce or cope with biases induced through clinical care. It has been previously demonstrated that the health care process (Hripcsak and Albers, 2012, 2013), as defined by measurement context (Hripcsak and Albers, 2013; Albers et al., 2012) and measurement patterns (Albers and Hripcsak, 2010, 2012), can influence how EHR data are distributed statistically (Kohane and Weber, 2013; Pivovarov et al., 2014). We construct an algorithm, PopKLD, which is based on information criterion model selection (Burnham and Anderson, 2002; Claeskens and Hjort, 2008), is intended to reduce and cope with health care process biases and to produce an intuitively understandable continuous summary. The PopKLD algorithm can be automated and is designed to be applicable in high-throughput settings; for example, the output of the PopKLD algorithm can be used as input for phenotyping algorithms. Moreover, we develop the PopKLD-CAT algorithm that transforms the continuous PopKLD summary into a categorical summary useful for applications that require categorical data such as topic modeling. We evaluate our methodology in two ways. First, we apply the method to laboratory data collected in two different health care contexts, primary versus intensive care. We show that the PopKLD preserves known physiologic features in the data that are lost when summarizing the data using more common laboratory data summaries such as mean and standard deviation. Second, for three disease-laboratory measurement pairs, we perform a phenotyping task: we use the PopKLD and PopKLD-CAT algorithms to define high and low values of the laboratory variable that are used for defining a disease state. We then compare the relationship between the PopKLD-CAT summary disease predictions and the same predictions using empirically estimated mean and standard deviation to a gold standard generated by clinical review of patient records. We find that the PopKLD laboratory data summary is substantially better at predicting disease state. The PopKLD or PopKLD-CAT algorithms are not meant to be used as phenotyping algorithms, but we use the phenotyping task to show what information can be gained when using a more informative laboratory data summary. In the process of evaluation our method we show that the different clinical contexts and laboratory measurements necessitate different statistical summaries. Similarly, leveraging the principle of maximum entropy we argue that while some laboratory data only have sufficient information to estimate a mean and standard deviation, other laboratory data captured in an EHR contain substantially more information than can be captured in higher-parameter models. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A summary of modulus of elasticity and knot size surveys for laminating grades of lumber

Treesearch

R. W. Wolfe; R. C. Moody

1981-01-01

A summary of modulus of elasticity (MOE) and knot data is presented for grades of lumber commonly used to manufacture glued-laminated (glulam) timber by the laminating Industry. Tabulated values represent 30 different studies covering a time span of over 16 years. Statistical estimates of average and near-maximum knot sizes as well as mean and coefficient of variation...

Estimating restricted mean treatment effects with stacked survival models

PubMed Central

Wey, Andrew; Vock, David M.; Connett, John; Rudser, Kyle

2016-01-01

The difference in restricted mean survival times between two groups is a clinically relevant summary measure. With observational data, there may be imbalances in confounding variables between the two groups. One approach to account for such imbalances is estimating a covariate-adjusted restricted mean difference by modeling the covariate-adjusted survival distribution, and then marginalizing over the covariate distribution. Since the estimator for the restricted mean difference is defined by the estimator for the covariate-adjusted survival distribution, it is natural to expect that a better estimator of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution is associated with a better estimator of the restricted mean difference. We therefore propose estimating restricted mean differences with stacked survival models. Stacked survival models estimate a weighted average of several survival models by minimizing predicted error. By including a range of parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric models, stacked survival models can robustly estimate a covariate-adjusted survival distribution and, therefore, the restricted mean treatment effect in a wide range of scenarios. We demonstrate through a simulation study that better performance of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution often leads to better mean-squared error of the restricted mean difference although there are notable exceptions. In addition, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator can perform nearly as well as Cox regression when the proportional hazards assumption is satisfied and significantly better when proportional hazards is violated. Finally, the proposed estimator is illustrated with data from the United Network for Organ Sharing to evaluate post-lung transplant survival between large and small-volume centers. PMID:26934835

Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 1: Operational applications of satellite snow cover observations: Executive summary. [usefulness of satellite snow-cover data for water yield prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rango, A.

1981-01-01

Both LANDSAT and NOAA satellite data were used in improving snowmelt runoff forecasts. When the satellite snow cover data were tested in both empirical seasonal runoff estimation and short term modeling approaches, a definite potential for reducing forecast error was evident. A cost benefit analysis run in conjunction with the snow mapping indicated a $36.5 million annual benefit accruing from a one percent improvement in forecast accuracy using the snow cover data for the western United States. The annual cost of employing the system would be $505,000. The snow mapping has proven that satellite snow cover data can be used to reduce snowmelt runoff forecast error in a cost effective manner once all operational satellite data are available within 72 hours after acquisition. Executive summaries of the individual snow mapping projects are presented.

Evidence-based mapping of design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis: a systematic review and evidence synthesis.

PubMed

Althuis, Michelle D; Weed, Douglas L; Frankenfeld, Cara L

2014-07-23

Assessment of design heterogeneity conducted prior to meta-analysis is infrequently reported; it is often presented post hoc to explain statistical heterogeneity. However, design heterogeneity determines the mix of included studies and how they are analyzed in a meta-analysis, which in turn can importantly influence the results. The goal of this work is to introduce ways to improve the assessment and reporting of design heterogeneity prior to statistical summarization of epidemiologic studies. In this paper, we use an assessment of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) as an example to show how a technique called 'evidence mapping' can be used to organize studies and evaluate design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis.. Employing a systematic and reproducible approach, we evaluated the following elements across 11 selected cohort studies: variation in definitions of SSB, T2D, and co-variables, design features and population characteristics associated with specific definitions of SSB, and diversity in modeling strategies. Evidence mapping strategies effectively organized complex data and clearly depicted design heterogeneity. For example, across 11 studies of SSB and T2D, 7 measured diet only once (with 7 to 16 years of disease follow-up), 5 included primarily low SSB consumers, and 3 defined the study variable (SSB) as consumption of either sugar or artificially-sweetened beverages. This exercise also identified diversity in analysis strategies, such as adjustment for 11 to 17 co-variables and a large degree of fluctuation in SSB-T2D risk estimates depending on variables selected for multivariable models (2 to 95% change in the risk estimate from the age-adjusted model). Meta-analysis seeks to understand heterogeneity in addition to computing a summary risk estimate. This strategy effectively documents design heterogeneity, thus improving the practice of meta-analysis by aiding in: 1) protocol and analysis planning, 2) transparent reporting of differences in study designs, and 3) interpretation of pooled estimates. We recommend expanding the practice of meta-analysis reporting to include a table that summarizes design heterogeneity. This would provide readers with more evidence to interpret the summary risk estimates.

Evidence-based mapping of design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis: a systematic review and evidence synthesis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Assessment of design heterogeneity conducted prior to meta-analysis is infrequently reported; it is often presented post hoc to explain statistical heterogeneity. However, design heterogeneity determines the mix of included studies and how they are analyzed in a meta-analysis, which in turn can importantly influence the results. The goal of this work is to introduce ways to improve the assessment and reporting of design heterogeneity prior to statistical summarization of epidemiologic studies. Methods In this paper, we use an assessment of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) as an example to show how a technique called ‘evidence mapping’ can be used to organize studies and evaluate design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis.. Employing a systematic and reproducible approach, we evaluated the following elements across 11 selected cohort studies: variation in definitions of SSB, T2D, and co-variables, design features and population characteristics associated with specific definitions of SSB, and diversity in modeling strategies. Results Evidence mapping strategies effectively organized complex data and clearly depicted design heterogeneity. For example, across 11 studies of SSB and T2D, 7 measured diet only once (with 7 to 16 years of disease follow-up), 5 included primarily low SSB consumers, and 3 defined the study variable (SSB) as consumption of either sugar or artificially-sweetened beverages. This exercise also identified diversity in analysis strategies, such as adjustment for 11 to 17 co-variables and a large degree of fluctuation in SSB-T2D risk estimates depending on variables selected for multivariable models (2 to 95% change in the risk estimate from the age-adjusted model). Conclusions Meta-analysis seeks to understand heterogeneity in addition to computing a summary risk estimate. This strategy effectively documents design heterogeneity, thus improving the practice of meta-analysis by aiding in: 1) protocol and analysis planning, 2) transparent reporting of differences in study designs, and 3) interpretation of pooled estimates. We recommend expanding the practice of meta-analysis reporting to include a table that summarizes design heterogeneity. This would provide readers with more evidence to interpret the summary risk estimates. PMID:25055879

Body mass index and hand osteoarthritis susceptibility: an updated meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jiang, Liying; Xie, Xiaohua; Wang, Yidan; Wang, Yingchen; Lu, Yihua; Tian, Tian; Chu, Minjie; Shen, Yi

2016-12-01

Numerous epidemiologic studies have evaluated the association between overweight and hand osteoarthritis; However, the existing results are inconsistent. Systematic searches were performed and reference lists from the retrieved trials were searched. This meta-analysis and meta-regression was executed to identify all English-language articles that quantitatively assess the strength of associations between body mass index and hand osteoarthritis risk. Study-specific incremental estimates were standardized to determine the risk associated with a 5 kg/m 2 increase in body mass index. We conducted the study according to the guidelines for the meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology. Of the 21 studies included, 13 were cross-sectional studies, three were case control studies and five were cohort studies. The pooled summary estimates were 1.10 (95%CI: 0.98-1.24) with no significant difference (P = 0.09). Subgroup analysis shows that body mass index was positively associated with hand osteoarthritis in cross-sectional studies (1.05 [95%CI: 1.02-1.08] P < 0.01), while with no significant difference was found in case-control studies (1.28 [95%CI: 0.87-1.88]) and in cohort studies (1.06 [95%CI: 0.71-1.58]) (P = 0.21 and P = 0.77, respectively). A weak but significant effect on radiographic hand osteoarthritis risk was found. The summary estimates were 1.06 (95%CI: 1.02-1.10) in studies defined by radiography and 1.25 (95%CI: 1.06-1.49) by radiography and clinically (P < 0 .01 and P = 0.01, respectively). It appears that increased body mass index contributes to a positively moderate effect on susceptibility to hand osteoarthritis, as defined radiographically and/or radiographically and clinically. The effects vary by study design and osteoarthritis definition. © 2016 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

A large-scale genetic association study to evaluate the contribution of Omi/HtrA2 (PARK13) to Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Krüger, Rejko; Sharma, Manu; Riess, Olaf; Gasser, Thomas; Van Broeckhoven, Christine; Theuns, Jessie; Aasly, Jan; Annesi, Grazia; Bentivoglio, Anna Rita; Brice, Alexis; Djarmati, Ana; Elbaz, Alexis; Farrer, Matthew; Ferrarese, Carlo; Gibson, J Mark; Hadjigeorgiou, Georgios M; Hattori, Nobutaka; Ioannidis, John P A; Jasinska-Myga, Barbara; Klein, Christine; Lambert, Jean-Charles; Lesage, Suzanne; Lin, Juei-Jueng; Lynch, Timothy; Mellick, George D; de Nigris, Francesa; Opala, Grzegorz; Prigione, Alessandro; Quattrone, Aldo; Ross, Owen A; Satake, Wataru; Silburn, Peter A; Tan, Eng King; Toda, Tatsushi; Tomiyama, Hiroyuki; Wirdefeldt, Karin; Wszolek, Zbigniew; Xiromerisiou, Georgia; Maraganore, Demetrius M

2011-03-01

High-profile studies have provided conflicting results regarding the involvement of the Omi/HtrA2 gene in Parkinson's disease (PD) susceptibility. Therefore, we performed a large-scale analysis of the association of common Omi/HtrA2 variants in the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's disease (GEO-PD) consortium. GEO-PD sites provided clinical and genetic data including affection status, gender, ethnicity, age at study, age at examination (all subjects); age at onset and family history of PD (patients). Genotyping was performed for the five most informative SNPs spanning the Omi/HtrA2 gene in approximately 2-3 kb intervals (rs10779958, rs2231250, rs72470544, rs1183739, rs2241028). Fixed as well as random effect models were used to provide summary risk estimates of Omi/HtrA2 variants. The 20 GEO-PD sites provided data for 6378 cases and 8880 controls. No overall significant associations for the five Omi/HtrA2 SNPs and PD were observed using either fixed effect or random effect models. The summary odds ratios ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 and the estimates of between-study heterogeneity were not large (non-significant Q statistics for all 5 SNPs; I(2) estimates 0-28%). Trends for association were seen for participants of Scandinavian descent for rs2241028 (OR 1.41, p=0.04) and for rs1183739 for age at examination (cut-off 65 years; OR 1.17, p=0.02), but these would not be significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons and their Bayes factors were only modest. This largest association study performed to define the role of any gene in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease revealed no overall strong association of Omi/HtrA2 variants with PD in populations worldwide. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the global HIV-infected population: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

PubMed

Bigna, Jean Joel R; Kenne, Angeladine Malaha; Asangbeh, Serra Lem

2017-03-29

Evidence suggests a relationship between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although the high burden of COPD and the HIV disease is clearly demonstrated, to the best of our knowledge, there is a lack of summary and meta-analysis data on the epidemiology of COPD in the global HIV-infected population to date. The present protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis intends to summarize existing data on the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors of COPD in the global HIV-infected population. The present review will include cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies conducted among HIV infected people, which report prevalence, incidence, and factors associated with COPD or enough data for their estimation. We will consider published and unpublished studies in English and French language, regardless of geographical location. Relevant records will be searched using PubMed/Medline, and Scopus from inception to December 31st, 2016. Reference lists of eligible papers and relevant review articles will be screened. Two investigators will independently screen, select studies, and extract data, with discrepancies resolved by consensus or arbitrarily by a third investigator. Risk of bias and methodological quality of the included studies will be assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Funnel-plots and Egger's test will be used to determine publication bias. The study-specific estimates will be pooled through a random-effects meta-analysis model to obtain an overall summary estimate. To keep the effect of studies with extremely small or extremely large estimates on the overall estimate to a minimum, the variance of the study-specific prevalence/incidence will be stabilized with the Freeman-Tukey single arc-sine transformation. The heterogeneity will be evaluated by the χ 2 test on Cochrane's Q statistic. Results will be presented by geographic region and by antiretroviral therapy status. We plan to summarize data on factors associated with COPD in narrative format. This systematic review and meta-analysis will give an overview of the epidemiology of COPD in the global HIV population to inform policy-makers and to provide accurate data that can underpin effective interventions for optimizing their detection and management. PROSPERO CRD42016052639 .

A Synthetic Comparator Approach to Local Evaluation of School-Based Substance Use Prevention Programming.

PubMed

Hansen, William B; Derzon, James H; Reese, Eric L

2014-06-01

We propose a method for creating groups against which outcomes of local pretest-posttest evaluations of evidence-based programs can be judged. This involves assessing pretest markers for new and previously conducted evaluations to identify groups that have high pretest similarity. A database of 802 prior local evaluations provided six summary measures for analysis. The proximity of all groups using these variables is calculated as standardized proximities having values between 0 and 1. Five methods for creating standardized proximities are demonstrated. The approach allows proximity limits to be adjusted to find sufficient numbers of synthetic comparators. Several index cases are examined to assess the numbers of groups available to serve as comparators. Results show that most local evaluations would have sufficient numbers of comparators available for estimating program effects. This method holds promise as a tool for local evaluations to estimate relative effectiveness. © The Author(s) 2012.

INFANT HEALTH PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS: WHAT A DIFFERENCE THE DATA MAKE

PubMed Central

Reichman, Nancy E.; Corman, Hope; Noonan, Kelly; Dave, Dhaval

2008-01-01

SUMMARY We examine the extent to which infant health production functions are sensitive to model specification and measurement error. We focus on the importance of typically unobserved but theoretically important variables (typically unobserved variables, TUVs), other non-standard covariates (NSCs), input reporting, and characterization of infant health. The TUVs represent wantedness, taste for risky behavior, and maternal health endowment. The NSCs include father characteristics. We estimate the effects of prenatal drug use, prenatal cigarette smoking, and First trimester prenatal care on birth weight, low birth weight, and a measure of abnormal infant health conditions. We compare estimates using self-reported inputs versus input measures that combine information from medical records and self-reports. We find that TUVs and NSCs are significantly associated with both inputs and outcomes, but that excluding them from infant health production functions does not appreciably affect the input estimates. However, using self-reported inputs leads to overestimated effects of inputs, particularly prenatal care, on outcomes, and using a direct measure of infant health does not always yield input estimates similar to those when using birth weight outcomes. The findings have implications for research, data collection, and public health policy. PMID:18792077

Measurement Error and Environmental Epidemiology: A Policy Perspective

PubMed Central

Edwards, Jessie K.; Keil, Alexander P.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review Measurement error threatens public health by producing bias in estimates of the population impact of environmental exposures. Quantitative methods to account for measurement bias can improve public health decision making. Recent findings We summarize traditional and emerging methods to improve inference under a standard perspective, in which the investigator estimates an exposure response function, and a policy perspective, in which the investigator directly estimates population impact of a proposed intervention. Summary Under a policy perspective, the analysis must be sensitive to errors in measurement of factors that modify the effect of exposure on outcome, must consider whether policies operate on the true or measured exposures, and may increasingly need to account for potentially dependent measurement error of two or more exposures affected by the same policy or intervention. Incorporating approaches to account for measurement error into such a policy perspective will increase the impact of environmental epidemiology. PMID:28138941

Multivariate Meta-Analysis of Genetic Association Studies: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Neupane, Binod; Beyene, Joseph

2015-01-01

In a meta-analysis with multiple end points of interests that are correlated between or within studies, multivariate approach to meta-analysis has a potential to produce more precise estimates of effects by exploiting the correlation structure between end points. However, under random-effects assumption the multivariate estimation is more complex (as it involves estimation of more parameters simultaneously) than univariate estimation, and sometimes can produce unrealistic parameter estimates. Usefulness of multivariate approach to meta-analysis of the effects of a genetic variant on two or more correlated traits is not well understood in the area of genetic association studies. In such studies, genetic variants are expected to roughly maintain Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium within studies, and also their effects on complex traits are generally very small to modest and could be heterogeneous across studies for genuine reasons. We carried out extensive simulation to explore the comparative performance of multivariate approach with most commonly used univariate inverse-variance weighted approach under random-effects assumption in various realistic meta-analytic scenarios of genetic association studies of correlated end points. We evaluated the performance with respect to relative mean bias percentage, and root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimate and coverage probability of corresponding 95% confidence interval of the effect for each end point. Our simulation results suggest that multivariate approach performs similarly or better than univariate method when correlations between end points within or between studies are at least moderate and between-study variation is similar or larger than average within-study variation for meta-analyses of 10 or more genetic studies. Multivariate approach produces estimates with smaller bias and RMSE especially for the end point that has randomly or informatively missing summary data in some individual studies, when the missing data in the endpoint are imputed with null effects and quite large variance. PMID:26196398

Multivariate Meta-Analysis of Genetic Association Studies: A Simulation Study.

PubMed

Neupane, Binod; Beyene, Joseph

2015-01-01

In a meta-analysis with multiple end points of interests that are correlated between or within studies, multivariate approach to meta-analysis has a potential to produce more precise estimates of effects by exploiting the correlation structure between end points. However, under random-effects assumption the multivariate estimation is more complex (as it involves estimation of more parameters simultaneously) than univariate estimation, and sometimes can produce unrealistic parameter estimates. Usefulness of multivariate approach to meta-analysis of the effects of a genetic variant on two or more correlated traits is not well understood in the area of genetic association studies. In such studies, genetic variants are expected to roughly maintain Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium within studies, and also their effects on complex traits are generally very small to modest and could be heterogeneous across studies for genuine reasons. We carried out extensive simulation to explore the comparative performance of multivariate approach with most commonly used univariate inverse-variance weighted approach under random-effects assumption in various realistic meta-analytic scenarios of genetic association studies of correlated end points. We evaluated the performance with respect to relative mean bias percentage, and root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimate and coverage probability of corresponding 95% confidence interval of the effect for each end point. Our simulation results suggest that multivariate approach performs similarly or better than univariate method when correlations between end points within or between studies are at least moderate and between-study variation is similar or larger than average within-study variation for meta-analyses of 10 or more genetic studies. Multivariate approach produces estimates with smaller bias and RMSE especially for the end point that has randomly or informatively missing summary data in some individual studies, when the missing data in the endpoint are imputed with null effects and quite large variance.

Comparative assessment of ECG dynamics in myocardial infarction according to reperfusion therapy approach (primary and facilitated coronary angioplasty) and timing of the procedure.

PubMed

Ryabykina, G V; Sozykin, A V; Dobrovolskaya, S V

2007-07-01

The aim of this study was to compare electrocardiogram (ECG)-12 dynamics depending on the methods of facilitated and primary angioplasty in patients with acute coronary syndrome. The ECG changes in 81 patients - 73 patients with acute myocardial infarction and 8 patients with unstable angina pectoris - were studied. The ECG analysis before reperfusion therapy and after angioplasty included: dynamics of summary elevation (Sigma ST+) and depression (Sigma ST-) of ST segment and changes of summary value of R waves (Sigma R) in 12 leads. The results were estimated with consideration for the length of the period from the beginning of pain syndrome till treatment and topics of the infraction-related artery. According to our data, there was no difference between facilitated and primary transluminal coronary angioplasty in their effect on focal myocardial variation dynamics and the size of peri-infarction zone. A reliable decrease in elevation and depression of ST segment was observed in reperfusion therapy not later than 6 hours after the beginning of pain syndrome. When reperfusion therapy is begun later, dynamics of summary values of ST segment elevation and depression before and after treatment are not reliable.

Booster Applications Facility report, phase 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thieberger, P.

1991-06-01

This report summarizes studies and planning performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) personnel at the request of NASA for the design, construction and operation of experimental areas and facilities for utilization of ion beams from the BNL Booster synchrotron particle accelerator. These facilities would be primarily utilized to simulate space radiation for radiobiological research, shielding studies and detector calibrations. The feasibility of such a project has been established, preliminary designs and cost estimates have been developed and a formal proposal can be submitted pending DOE concurrence. The main body of this report consists of the material presented by BNL during the meeting with a NASA appointed Panel on December 10 and 11, 1990. The individual speakers have provided brief summaries of their talks and explanations of their figures. In addition there are two appendices. One, contains detailed discussion of the shared mode of operation and the corresponding beam compatibility tables. The second appendix contains cost estimate details. An executive summary on budgets and schedules has been added, containing possible phased construction and outfitting scenarios and the corresponding expense and commitment profiles as well as new operational cost estimates. Material contained in the executive summary reflects the correction of some errors and new studies performed in response to the NASA Panel suggestions.

A Powerful Approach to Estimating Annotation-Stratified Genetic Covariance via GWAS Summary Statistics.

PubMed

Lu, Qiongshi; Li, Boyang; Ou, Derek; Erlendsdottir, Margret; Powles, Ryan L; Jiang, Tony; Hu, Yiming; Chang, David; Jin, Chentian; Dai, Wei; He, Qidu; Liu, Zefeng; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Crane, Paul K; Zhao, Hongyu

2017-12-07

Despite the success of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on complex traits, our understanding of their genetic architecture is far from complete. Jointly modeling multiple traits' genetic profiles has provided insights into the shared genetic basis of many complex traits. However, large-scale inference sets a high bar for both statistical power and biological interpretability. Here we introduce a principled framework to estimate annotation-stratified genetic covariance between traits using GWAS summary statistics. Through theoretical and numerical analyses, we demonstrate that our method provides accurate covariance estimates, thereby enabling researchers to dissect both the shared and distinct genetic architecture across traits to better understand their etiologies. Among 50 complex traits with publicly accessible GWAS summary statistics (N total ≈ 4.5 million), we identified more than 170 pairs with statistically significant genetic covariance. In particular, we found strong genetic covariance between late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), two major neurodegenerative diseases, in single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with high minor allele frequencies and in SNPs located in the predicted functional genome. Joint analysis of LOAD, ALS, and other traits highlights LOAD's correlation with cognitive traits and hints at an autoimmune component for ALS. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Section summary: Uncertainty and design considerations

Treesearch

Stephen Hagen

2013-01-01

Well planned sampling designs and robust approaches to estimating uncertainty are critical components of forest monitoring. The importance of uncertainty estimation increases as deforestation and degradation issues become more closely tied to financing incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the forest sector. Investors like to know risk and risk is tightly...

National Deployment Estimate of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure : Updated with 2010 Deployment Data, 7th Revision

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-12-01

The purpose of this report is to provide a summary and back-up information on the methodology, data sources, and results for the estimate of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) capital expenditures in the top 75 metropolitan areas as of FY 2010....

19 CFR 151.65 - Duties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

...) EXAMINATION, SAMPLING, AND TESTING OF MERCHANDISE Wool and Hair § 151.65 Duties. Duties on wool or hair... determination of clean yield. Estimated and liquidated duties on wool or hair tested for clean yield pursuant to... appropriate adjustment of the estimated percentage clean yield shown on the entry summary for the wool or hair...

19 CFR 151.65 - Duties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) EXAMINATION, SAMPLING, AND TESTING OF MERCHANDISE Wool and Hair § 151.65 Duties. Duties on wool or hair... determination of clean yield. Estimated and liquidated duties on wool or hair tested for clean yield pursuant to... appropriate adjustment of the estimated percentage clean yield shown on the entry summary for the wool or hair...

19 CFR 151.65 - Duties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

...) EXAMINATION, SAMPLING, AND TESTING OF MERCHANDISE Wool and Hair § 151.65 Duties. Duties on wool or hair... determination of clean yield. Estimated and liquidated duties on wool or hair tested for clean yield pursuant to... appropriate adjustment of the estimated percentage clean yield shown on the entry summary for the wool or hair...

19 CFR 151.65 - Duties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

...) EXAMINATION, SAMPLING, AND TESTING OF MERCHANDISE Wool and Hair § 151.65 Duties. Duties on wool or hair... determination of clean yield. Estimated and liquidated duties on wool or hair tested for clean yield pursuant to... appropriate adjustment of the estimated percentage clean yield shown on the entry summary for the wool or hair...

19 CFR 151.65 - Duties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

...) EXAMINATION, SAMPLING, AND TESTING OF MERCHANDISE Wool and Hair § 151.65 Duties. Duties on wool or hair... determination of clean yield. Estimated and liquidated duties on wool or hair tested for clean yield pursuant to... appropriate adjustment of the estimated percentage clean yield shown on the entry summary for the wool or hair...

76 FR 28770 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-18

... maintenance and operational costs. Changes in the Estimates: The burden estimates have been changed to reflect... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OA-2010-0757; FRL-9307-5] Agency Information Collection... Environmental Protection Agency (Renewal) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY...

Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities in 2009 : a brief statistical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

statistical projection of traffic fatalities in 2009 shows that an estimated 33,963 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 8.9 percent as compared to the 37,261 fatalities that occurred in 2008, as shown in T...

Estimated impacts of the 2010 census on the Texas transit funding formula : summary report on findings.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-01

The purpose of the research for Project 0-6199, Estimated Impact of the 2010 Census on the : Texas Transit Funding Formula, is to project population growth for the 2010 Census in : urbanized and non-urbanized areas in Texas and to identify the impact...

77 FR 8213 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-14

... production, number of milk cow, and milk production per cow, are used by the dairy industry in planning... Title: Milk and Milk Products. OMB Control Number: 0535-0020. Summary of Collection: The National... national estimates of crop and livestock production. Estimates of milk production and manufactured dairy...

RPA Data Wiz users guide, version 1.0

Treesearch

Scott A. Pugh

2004-01-01

RPA Data Wiz is a computer application use to create summary tables, graphs, and maps of Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessment forest information (English or metric units). Volumes for growing stock, live cull, dead salvable, netgrowth, and mortality can be estimated. Acreage, biomass, and tree count estimates are also available.

Comparisons of estimates of annual exceedance-probability discharges for small drainage basins in Iowa, based on data through water year 2013 : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

Traditionally, the Iowa DOT has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional regression equations (RREs) from a USGS report : (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge : (AEPD) for small...

77 FR 1947 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Jade Act

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-12

... technology; and (e) the annual costs burden to respondents or record keepers from the collection of... CBP Form 7501, Entry Summary, which serves as the importer's certification. In addition, at the time... Number of Annual Responses per Respondent: 20. Estimated Total Annual Responses: 443,940. Estimated Time...

Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, J. C.

1990-01-01

Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

Depression, antidepressants and driving safety.

PubMed

Hill, Linda L; Lauzon, Vanessa L; Winbrock, Elise L; Li, Guohua; Chihuri, Stanford; Lee, Kelly C

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to review to review the reported associations of depression and antidepressants with motor vehicle crashes. A literature search for material published in the English language between January, 1995, and October, 2015, in bibliographic databases was combined with a search for other relevant material referenced in the retrieved articles. Retrieved articles were systematically reviewed for inclusion criteria: 19 epidemiological studies (17 case-control and 2 cohort studies) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by estimating the crash risk associated with depression and/or psychotropic medications in naturalistic settings. The estimates of the odds ratio (OR) of crash involvement associated with depression ranged from 1.78 to 3.99. All classes of antidepressants were reported to have side effects with the potential to affect driving safety. The majority of studies of antidepressant effects on driving reported an elevated crash risk, and ORs ranged from 1.19 to 2.03 for all crashes, and 3.19 for fatal crashes. In meta-analysis, depression was associated with approximately 2-fold increased crash risk (summary OR = 1.90; 95% CI, 1.06 to 3.39), and antidepressants were associated with approximately 40% increased crash risk (summary OR = 1.40; 95%CI, 1.18 to 1.66). Based on the findings of the studies reviewed, depression, antidepressants or the combination of depression and antidepressants may pose a potential hazard to driving safety. More research is needed to understand the individual contributions of depression and the medications used to treat depression.

Nutrient load summaries for major lakes and estuaries of the Eastern United States, 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moorman, Michelle C.; Hoos, Anne B.; Bricker, Suzanne B.; Moore, Richard B.; García, Ana María; Ator, Scott W.

2014-01-01

Nutrient enrichment of lakes and estuaries across the Nation is widespread. Nutrient enrichment can stimulate excessive plant and algal growth and cause a number of undesirable effects that impair aquatic life and recreational activities and can also result in economic effects. Understanding the amount of nutrients entering lakes and estuaries, the physical characteristics affecting the nutrient processing within these receiving waterbodies, and the natural and manmade sources of nutrients is fundamental to the development of effective nutrient reduction strategies. To improve this understanding, sources and stream transport of nutrients to 255 major lakes and 64 estuaries in the Eastern United States were estimated using Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models.

Meta-analyses including data from observational studies.

PubMed

O'Connor, Annette M; Sargeant, Jan M

2014-02-15

Observational studies represent a wide group of studies where the disease or condition of interest is naturally occurring and the investigator does not control allocation to interventions or exposures. Observational studies are used to test hypotheses about the efficacy of interventions or about exposure-disease relationships, to estimate incidence or prevalence of conditions, and to assess the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic assays. Experimental-study designs and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can also contribute to the body of evidence about such questions. Meta-analyses (either with or without systematic reviews) aim to combine information from primary research studies to better describe the entire body of work. The aim of meta-analyses may be to obtain a summary effect size, or to understand factors that affect effect sizes. In this paper, we discuss the role of observational studies in meta-analysis questions and some factors to consider when deciding whether a meta-analysis should include results from such studies. Our suggestion is that one should only include studies that are not at high risk of inherent bias when calculating a summary effect size. Study design however can be a meaningful variable in assessment of outcome heterogeneity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Department of Defense Finance and Accounting Service FY 1996/1997 Biennial Budget Estimates, February 1995.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-02-01

Descriptive Summary 2 FIP Resources and Indefinite Delivery - Quantity Contracts 3 Central Design Activity Summary 4 Accesion For NTIS CRA&IDTIC TAB...interface with financial systems should be integrated into the standard architecture of the Military Departments iii to ensure maximum cost...provided to support and maintain the DFAS enterprise local area network initiative to establish a standardized architecture for office automation and

The Cost and Quality of Full Day, Year-Round Early Care and Education in Massachusetts: Preschool Classrooms [with] Executive Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Nancy L.; Creps, Cindy L.; Burstein, Nancy R.; Glantz, Frederic B.; Robeson, Wendy Wagner; Barnett, Steve

There are an estimated 167,000 children in early care and education programs in Massachusetts. In 2000, the state department of education commissioned a study of the cost and quality of early care and education in the state. This report and executive summary are the first from the study, addressing early care and education for preschool-aged…

Comparison of two independent systematic reviews of trials of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2): the Yale Open Data Access Medtronic Project.

PubMed

Low, Jeffrey; Ross, Joseph S; Ritchie, Jessica D; Gross, Cary P; Lehman, Richard; Lin, Haiqun; Fu, Rongwei; Stewart, Lesley A; Krumholz, Harlan M

2017-02-15

It is uncertain whether the replication of systematic reviews, particularly those with the same objectives and resources, would employ similar methods and/or arrive at identical findings. We compared the results and conclusions of two concurrent systematic reviews undertaken by two independent research teams provided with the same objectives, resources, and individual participant-level data. Two centers in the USA and UK were each provided with participant-level data on 17 multi-site clinical trials of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2). The teams were blinded to each other's methods and findings until after publication. We conducted a retrospective structured comparison of the results of the two systematic reviews. The main outcome measures included (1) trial inclusion criteria; (2) statistical methods; (3) summary efficacy and risk estimates; and (4) conclusions. The two research teams' meta-analyses inclusion criteria were broadly similar but differed slightly in trial inclusion and research methodology. They obtained similar results in summary estimates of most clinical outcomes and adverse events. Center A incorporated all trials into summary estimates of efficacy and harms, while Center B concentrated on analyses stratified by surgical approach. Center A found a statistically significant, but small, benefit whereas Center B reported no advantage. In the analysis of harms, neither showed an increased cancer risk at 48 months, although Center B reported a significant increase at 24 months. Conclusions reflected these differences in summary estimates of benefit balanced with small but potentially important risk of harm. Two independent groups given the same research objectives, data, resources, funding, and time produced broad general agreement but differed in several areas. These differences, the importance of which is debatable, indicate the value of the availability of data to allow for more than a single approach and a single interpretation of the data. PROSPERO CRD42012002040 and CRD42012001907 .

QUANTIFYING ALTERNATIVE SPLICING FROM PAIRED-END RNA-SEQUENCING DATA.

PubMed

Rossell, David; Stephan-Otto Attolini, Camille; Kroiss, Manuel; Stöcker, Almond

2014-03-01

RNA-sequencing has revolutionized biomedical research and, in particular, our ability to study gene alternative splicing. The problem has important implications for human health, as alternative splicing may be involved in malfunctions at the cellular level and multiple diseases. However, the high-dimensional nature of the data and the existence of experimental biases pose serious data analysis challenges. We find that the standard data summaries used to study alternative splicing are severely limited, as they ignore a substantial amount of valuable information. Current data analysis methods are based on such summaries and are hence sub-optimal. Further, they have limited flexibility in accounting for technical biases. We propose novel data summaries and a Bayesian modeling framework that overcome these limitations and determine biases in a non-parametric, highly flexible manner. These summaries adapt naturally to the rapid improvements in sequencing technology. We provide efficient point estimates and uncertainty assessments. The approach allows to study alternative splicing patterns for individual samples and can also be the basis for downstream analyses. We found a several fold improvement in estimation mean square error compared popular approaches in simulations, and substantially higher consistency between replicates in experimental data. Our findings indicate the need for adjusting the routine summarization and analysis of alternative splicing RNA-seq studies. We provide a software implementation in the R package casper.

IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.

2014-11-01

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOTmore » intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.« less

An audit strategy for progression-free survival

PubMed Central

Dodd, Lori E.; Korn, Edward L.; Freidlin, Boris; Gray, Robert; Bhattacharya, Suman

2010-01-01

Summary In randomized clinical trials, the use of potentially subjective endpoints has led to frequent use of blinded independent central review (BICR) and event adjudication committees to reduce possible bias in treatment effect estimators based on local evaluations (LE). In oncology trials, progression-free survival (PFS) is one such endpoint. PFS requires image interpretation to determine whether a patient’s cancer has progressed, and BICR has been advocated to reduce the potential for endpoints to be biased by knowledge of treatment assignment. There is current debate, however, about the value of such reviews with time-to-event outcomes like PFS. We propose a BICR audit strategy as an alternative to a complete-case BICR to provide assurance of the presence of a treatment effect. We develop an auxiliary-variable estimator of the log-hazard ratio that is more efficient than simply using the audited (i.e., sampled) BICR data for estimation. Our estimator incorporates information from the LE on all the cases and the audited BICR cases, and is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the log-hazard ratio from BICR. The estimator offers considerable efficiency gains that improve as the correlation between LE and BICR increases. A two-stage auditing strategy is also proposed and evaluated through simulation studies. The method is applied retrospectively to a large oncology trial that had a complete-case BICR, showing the potential for efficiency improvements. PMID:21210772

Plasmodium falciparum Infection Status among Children with Schistosoma in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Degarege, Abraham; Degarege, Dawit; Veledar, Emir; Erko, Berhanu; Nacher, Mathieu; Beck-Sague, Consuelo M.; Madhivanan, Purnima

2016-01-01

Background It has been suggested that Schistosoma infection may be associated with Plasmodium falciparum infection or related reduction in haemoglobin level, but the nature of this interaction remains unclear. This systematic review synthesized evidence on the relationship of S. haematobium or S. mansoni infection with the occurrence of P. falciparum malaria, Plasmodium density and related reduction in haemoglobin level among children in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methodology/Principal findings A systematic review in according with PRISMA guidelines was conducted. All published articles available in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library and CINAHL databases before May 20, 2015 were searched without any limits. Two reviewers independently screened, reviewed and assessed all the studies. Cochrane Q and Moran’s I2 were used to assess heterogeneity and the Egger test was used to examine publication bias. The summary odds ratio (OR), summary regression co-efficient (β) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using a random-effects model. Out of 2,920 citations screened, 12 articles (five cross-sectional, seven prospective cohort) were eligible to be included in the systematic review and 11 in the meta-analysis. The 12 studies involved 9,337 children in eight SSA countries. Eight studies compared the odds of asymptomatic/uncomplicated P. falciparum infection, two studies compared the incidence of uncomplicated P. falciparum infection, six studies compared P. falciparum density and four studies compared mean haemoglobin level between children infected and uninfected with S. haematobium or S. mansoni. Summary estimates of the eight studies based on 6,018 children showed a higher odds of asymptomatic/uncomplicated P. falciparum infection in children infected with S. mansoni or S. haematobium compared to those uninfected with Schistosoma (summary OR: 1.82; 95%CI: 1.41, 2.35; I2: 52.3%). The increase in odds of asymptomatic/uncomplicated P. falciparum infection among children infected with Schistosoma remained significant when subgroup analysis was conducted for S. haematobium (summary OR: 1.68; 95%CI: 1.18, 2.41; I2: 53.2%) and S. mansoni (summary OR: 2.15; 95%CI: 1.89, 2.46: I2: 0.0%) infection. However, the density of P. falciparum infection was lower in children co-infected with S. haematobium compared to those uninfected with Schistosoma (summary-β: -0.14; 95% CI: -0.24, -0.01; I2: 39.7%). The mean haemoglobin level was higher among children co-infected with S. haematobium and P. falciparum than those infected with only P. falciparum (summary-mean haemoglobin difference: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.95; I2: 66.4%) Conclusions/Significance The current review suggests S. mansoni or S. haematobium co-infection may be associated with increased prevalence of asymptomatic/uncomplicated P. falciparum infection in children, but may protect against high density P. falciparum infection and related reduction in haemoglobin level. PMID:27926919

Inverse probability weighting for covariate adjustment in randomized studies

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaochun; Li, Lingling

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Covariate adjustment in randomized clinical trials has the potential benefit of precision gain. It also has the potential pitfall of reduced objectivity as it opens the possibility of selecting “favorable” model that yields strong treatment benefit estimate. Although there is a large volume of statistical literature targeting on the first aspect, realistic solutions to enforce objective inference and improve precision are rare. As a typical randomized trial needs to accommodate many implementation issues beyond statistical considerations, maintaining the objectivity is at least as important as precision gain if not more, particularly from the perspective of the regulatory agencies. In this article, we propose a two-stage estimation procedure based on inverse probability weighting to achieve better precision without compromising objectivity. The procedure is designed in a way such that the covariate adjustment is performed before seeing the outcome, effectively reducing the possibility of selecting a “favorable” model that yields a strong intervention effect. Both theoretical and numerical properties of the estimation procedure are presented. Application of the proposed method to a real data example is presented. PMID:24038458

Effectiveness of real-time polymerase chain reaction assay for the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in pathological samples: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Babafemi, Emmanuel O; Cherian, Benny P; Banting, Lee; Mills, Graham A; Ngianga, Kandala

2017-10-25

Rapid and accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is key to manage the disease and to control and prevent its transmission. Many established diagnostic methods suffer from low sensitivity or delay of timely results and are inadequate for rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) in pulmonary and extra-pulmonary clinical samples. This study examined whether a real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay, with a turn-a-round time of 2 h, would prove effective for routine detection of MTB by clinical microbiology laboratories. A systematic literature search was performed for publications in any language on the detection of MTB in pathological samples by RT-PCR assay. The following sources were used MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, BIOSIS Citation Index, Web of Science, SCOPUS, ISI Web of Knowledge and Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialised Register, grey literature, World Health Organization and Centres for Disease Control and Prevention websites. Forty-six studies met set inclusion criteria. Generated pooled summary estimates (95% CIs) were calculated for overall accuracy and bivariate meta-regression model was used for meta-analysis. Summary estimates for pulmonary TB (31 studies) were as follows: sensitivity 0.82 (95% CI 0.81-0.83), specificity 0.99 (95% CI 0.99-0.99), positive likelihood ratio 43.00 (28.23-64.81), negative likelihood ratio 0.16 (0.12-0.20), diagnostic odds ratio 324.26 (95% CI 189.08-556.09) and area under curve 0.99. Summary estimates for extra-pulmonary TB (25 studies) were as follows: sensitivity 0.70 (95% CI 0.67-0.72), specificity 0.99 (95% CI 0.99-0.99), positive likelihood ratio 29.82 (17.86-49.78), negative likelihood ratio 0.33 (0.26-0.42), diagnostic odds ratio 125.20 (95% CI 65.75-238.36) and area under curve 0.96. RT-PCR assay demonstrated a high degree of sensitivity for pulmonary TB and good sensitivity for extra-pulmonary TB. It indicated a high degree of specificity for ruling in TB infection from sampling regimes. This was acceptable, but may better as a rule out add-on diagnostic test. RT-PCR assays demonstrate both a high degree of sensitivity in pulmonary samples and rapidity of detection of TB which is an important factor in achieving effective global control and for patient management in terms of initiating early and appropriate anti-tubercular therapy. PROSPERO CRD42015027534 .

Tagging methods for estimating population size and mortality rates of inland striped bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, Joseph E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

2013-01-01

Striped bass Morone saxatilis in inland reservoirs play an important role ecologically and in supporting recreational fishing. To manage these populations, biologists need information about abundance and mortality. Abundance estimates can be used to assess the effectiveness of stocking programs that maintain most reservoir striped bass populations. Mortality estimates can indicate the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality and the need for harvest regulation. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate tagging studies as a way of obtaining information about abundance and mortality. These approaches can be grouped into three broad categories: tag recapture, tag return, and telemetry. Tag-recapture methods are typically used to estimate population size and other demographic parameters but are often difficult to apply in large systems. A fishing tournament can be an effective way of generating tagging or recapture effort in large systems, compared to using research sampling only. Tag-return methods that rely on angler harvest and catch and release can be used to estimate fishing (F) and natural (M) mortality rates and are a practical approach in large reservoirs. The key to success in tag-return studies is to build in auxiliary studies to estimate short-term tagging mortality, short- and longterm tag loss, reporting rate, and mortality associated with catch and release. F and M can also be estimated using telemetry tags. Advantages of this approach are that angler nonreporting does not bias estimates and fish with transmitters provide useful ecological data. Cost can be a disadvantage of telemetry studies; thus, combining telemetry tags with conventional tag returns in an integrated analysis is often the optimal approach. In summary, tagging methods can be a powerful tool for assessing the effectiveness of inland striped bass stocking programs and the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality

Comparison of Smoking History Patterns Among African American and White Cohorts in the United States Born 1890 to 1990.

PubMed

Holford, Theodore R; Levy, David T; Meza, Rafael

2016-04-01

Characterizing smoking history patterns summarizes life course exposure for birth cohorts, essential for evaluating the impact of tobacco control on health. Limited attention has been given to patterns among African Americans. Life course smoking histories of African Americans and whites were estimated beginning with the 1890 birth cohort. Estimates of smoking initiation and cessation probabilities, and intensity can be used as a baseline for studying smoking intervention strategies that target smoking exposure. US National Health Interview Surveys conducted from 1965 to 2012 yielded cross-sectional information on current smoking behavior among African Americans and whites. Additional detail for smokers including age at initiation, age at cessation and smoking intensity were available in some surveys and these were used to construct smoking histories for participants up to the date that they were interviewed. Age-period-cohort models with constrained natural splines provided estimates of current, former and never-smoker prevalence in cohorts beginning in 1890. This approach yielded yearly estimates of initiation, cessation and smoking intensity by age for each birth cohort. Smoking initiation probabilities tend to be lower among African Americans compared to whites, and cessation probabilities also were generally lower. Higher initiation leads to higher smoking prevalence among whites in younger ages, but lower cessation leads to higher prevalence at older ages in blacks, when adverse health effects of smoking become most apparent. These estimates provide a summary that can be used to better understand the effects of changes in smoking behavior following publication of the Surgeon General's Report in 1964. A novel method of estimating smoking histories was applied to data from the National Health Interview Surveys, which provided an extensive summary of the smoking history in this population following publication of the Surgeon General's Report in 1964. The results suggest that some of the existing disparities in smoking-related disease may be due to the lower cessation rates in African Americans compared to whites. However, the number of cigarettes smoked is also lower among African Americans. Further work is needed to determine mechanisms by which smoking duration and intensity can account for racial disparities in smoking-related diseases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Personal hair dyes use and risk of glioma: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Shao, Chuan; Qi, Zhen-Yu; Hui, Guo-Zhen; Wang, Zhong

2013-01-01

Background and Objective: Use of hair dyes for glioma risk has been investigated in numerous epidemiological studies, but the evidence is inconsistent. Therefore, a meta-analysis was performed to estimate the association between hair dyes use and glioma risk. Methods: We searched PubMed and EMBASE databases without any limitations, covering all papers published by the end of March 8, 2013. Cohort and case-control studies reporting relative risk estimates (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) (or data to calculate them) on this issue were included. Random effects models were used to calculate the pooled RRs and corresponding 95% CIs. Results: Four case-control and two cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis. The summary RRs and 95 % CIs for ever users of any hair dyes were 1.132 (0.887-1.446) for all studies, 1.291 (0.938-1.777) for case-control studies, and 0.903 (0.774-1.054) for cohort studies. In the subgroup analysis by geographic regions and sex, the similar results were detected. No significant associations were also observed among the studies which reported data involving permanent hair dye use and duration of any hair dye use. Conclusion: In summary, the results of our study demonstrated that hair dyes use is not associated with risk of glioma. PMID:24179568

A bias-adjusted evidence synthesis of RCT and observational data: the case of total hip replacement.

PubMed

Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Iglesias, Cynthia P; Arvandi, Marjan; Ciani, Oriana; Matteucci Gothe, Raffaella; Peters, Jaime; Blom, Ashley W; Taylor, Rod S; Siebert, Uwe

2017-02-01

Evaluation of clinical effectiveness of medical devices differs in some aspects from the evaluation of pharmaceuticals. One of the main challenges identified is lack of robust evidence and a will to make use of experimental and observational studies (OSs) in quantitative evidence synthesis accounting for internal and external biases. Using a case study of total hip replacement to compare the risk of revision of cemented and uncemented implant fixation modalities, we pooled treatment effect estimates from OS and RCTs, and simplified existing methods for bias-adjusted evidence synthesis to enhance practical application. We performed an elicitation exercise using methodological and clinical experts to determine the strength of beliefs about the magnitude of internal and external bias affecting estimates of treatment effect. We incorporated the bias-adjusted treatment effects into a generalized evidence synthesis, calculating both frequentist and Bayesian statistical models. We estimated relative risks as summary effect estimates with 95% confidence/credibility intervals to capture uncertainty. When we compared alternative approaches to synthesizing evidence, we found that the pooled effect size strongly depended on the inclusion of observational data as well as on the use bias-adjusted estimates. We demonstrated the feasibility of using observational studies in meta-analyses to complement RCTs and incorporate evidence from a wider spectrum of clinically relevant studies and healthcare settings. To ensure internal validity, OS data require sufficient correction for confounding and selection bias, either through study design and primary analysis, or by applying post-hoc bias adjustments to the results. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Meta-analysis of the effect of natural frequencies on Bayesian reasoning.

PubMed

McDowell, Michelle; Jacobs, Perke

2017-12-01

The natural frequency facilitation effect describes the finding that people are better able to solve descriptive Bayesian inference tasks when represented as joint frequencies obtained through natural sampling, known as natural frequencies, than as conditional probabilities. The present meta-analysis reviews 20 years of research seeking to address when, why, and for whom natural frequency formats are most effective. We review contributions from research associated with the 2 dominant theoretical perspectives, the ecological rationality framework and nested-sets theory, and test potential moderators of the effect. A systematic review of relevant literature yielded 35 articles representing 226 performance estimates. These estimates were statistically integrated using a bivariate mixed-effects model that yields summary estimates of average performances across the 2 formats and estimates of the effects of different study characteristics on performance. These study characteristics range from moderators representing individual characteristics (e.g., numeracy, expertise), to methodological differences (e.g., use of incentives, scoring criteria) and features of problem representation (e.g., short menu format, visual aid). Short menu formats (less computationally complex representations showing joint-events) and visual aids demonstrated some of the strongest moderation effects, improving performance for both conditional probability and natural frequency formats. A number of methodological factors (e.g., exposure to both problem formats) were also found to affect performance rates, emphasizing the importance of a systematic approach. We suggest how research on Bayesian reasoning can be strengthened by broadening the definition of successful Bayesian reasoning to incorporate choice and process and by applying different research methodologies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Tanning beds, sunlamps, and risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma.

PubMed

Gallagher, Richard P; Spinelli, John J; Lee, Tim K

2005-03-01

A number of studies have been conducted evaluating the risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma after exposure to sunlamps and/or sunbeds. The proportion of subjects in the individual studies who have reported exposure has, in general, been modest, and the resulting risk estimates for melanoma have been unstable with wide 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The inconclusive results seen in individual studies have resulted in confusion as to the carcinogenicity of these devices. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of these studies. A review of the literature from Jan 1, 1984 to April 2004 using MEDLINE identified 12 case-control studies and 1 cohort study which quantitatively evaluated the use of sunlamps and/or sunbeds and subsequent melanoma. After applying exclusion/inclusion criteria, 9 case-control and 1 cohort study provided data for the analysis. Summary odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs for sunlamp/sunbed use and subsequent melanoma were calculated using a random-effect model. Ten studies provided data for assessment of melanoma risk among subjects who reported "ever" being exposed compared with those "never" exposed. A positive association was found between exposure and risk (summary OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.49). Significant heterogeneity between studies was present. Evaluation of the metrics "first exposure as a young adult" (5 studies) and "longest duration or highest frequency of exposure" (6 studies) also yielded significantly elevated risk estimates (summary OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.32-2.18, and 1.61; 95% CI, 1.21-2.12, respectively, with no heterogeneity in either analysis). Results indicate a significantly increased risk of cutaneous melanoma subsequent to sunbed/sunlamp exposure.

Nonlinear reduction in risk for colorectal cancer by fruit and vegetable intake based on meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Aune, Dagfinn; Lau, Rosa; Chan, Doris S M; Vieira, Rui; Greenwood, Darren C; Kampman, Ellen; Norat, Teresa

2011-07-01

The association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk has been investigated by many studies but is controversial because of inconsistent results and weak observed associations. We summarized the evidence from cohort studies in categorical, linear, and nonlinear, dose-response meta-analyses. We searched PubMed for studies of fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk that were published until the end of May 2010. We included 19 prospective studies that reported relative risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer-associated with fruit and vegetable intake. Random effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks. The summary relative risk for the highest vs the lowest intake was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.99) for fruit and vegetables combined, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83-0.98) for fruit, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.86-0.96) for vegetables (P for heterogeneity=.24, .05, and .54, respectively). The inverse associations appeared to be restricted to colon cancer. In linear dose-response analysis, only intake of vegetables was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk (summary relative risk=0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), per 100 g/d. However, significant inverse associations emerged in nonlinear models for fruits (Pnonlinearity<.001) and vegetables (Pnonlinearity=.001). The greatest risk reduction was observed when intake increased from very low levels of intake. There was generally little evidence of heterogeneity in the analyses and there was no evidence of small-study bias. Based on meta-analysis of prospective studies, there is a weak but statistically significant nonlinear inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk. Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fruits, vegetables, and bladder cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Vieira, Ana R; Vingeliene, Snieguole; Chan, Doris S M; Aune, Dagfinn; Abar, Leila; Navarro Rosenblatt, Deborah; Greenwood, Darren C; Norat, Teresa

2015-01-01

Smoking is estimated to cause about half of all bladder cancer cases. Case-control studies have provided evidence of an inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk. As part of the World Cancer Research/American Institute for Cancer Research Continuous Update Project, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies to assess the dose-response relationship between fruit and vegetables and incidence and mortality of bladder cancer. We searched PubMed up to December 2013 for relevant prospective studies. We conducted highest compared with lowest meta-analyses and dose-response meta-analyses using random effects models to estimate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and used restricted cubic splines to examine possible nonlinear associations. Fifteen prospective studies were included in the review. The summary RR for an increase of 1 serving/day (80 g) were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95-0.99) I(2)  = 0%, eight studies for fruits and vegetables, 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94-1.00, I(2)  = 10%, 10 studies) for vegetables and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-1.00, I(2)  = 0%, 12 studies) for fruits. Results were similar in men and women and in current, former and nonsmokers. Amongst fruits and vegetables subgroups, for citrus fruits the summary RR for the highest compared with the lowest intake was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.76-0.99, I(2)  = 0%, eight studies) and for cruciferous vegetables there was evidence of a nonlinear relationship (P = 0.001). The current evidence from cohort studies is not consistent with a role for fruits and vegetables in preventing bladder cancer. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fruits, vegetables, and bladder cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Vieira, Ana R; Vingeliene, Snieguole; Chan, Doris S M; Aune, Dagfinn; Abar, Leila; Navarro Rosenblatt, Deborah; Greenwood, Darren C; Norat, Teresa

2015-01-01

Smoking is estimated to cause about half of all bladder cancer cases. Case–control studies have provided evidence of an inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk. As part of the World Cancer Research/American Institute for Cancer Research Continuous Update Project, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies to assess the dose–response relationship between fruit and vegetables and incidence and mortality of bladder cancer. We searched PubMed up to December 2013 for relevant prospective studies. We conducted highest compared with lowest meta-analyses and dose–response meta-analyses using random effects models to estimate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and used restricted cubic splines to examine possible nonlinear associations. Fifteen prospective studies were included in the review. The summary RR for an increase of 1 serving/day (80 g) were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95–0.99) I2 = 0%, eight studies for fruits and vegetables, 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94–1.00, I2 = 10%, 10 studies) for vegetables and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96–1.00, I2 = 0%, 12 studies) for fruits. Results were similar in men and women and in current, former and nonsmokers. Amongst fruits and vegetables subgroups, for citrus fruits the summary RR for the highest compared with the lowest intake was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.76–0.99, I2 = 0%, eight studies) and for cruciferous vegetables there was evidence of a nonlinear relationship (P = 0.001). The current evidence from cohort studies is not consistent with a role for fruits and vegetables in preventing bladder cancer. PMID:25461441

Sexual behaviours and head and neck cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Farsi, N J; El-Zein, M; Gaied, H; Lee, Y C A; Hashibe, M; Nicolau, B; Rousseau, M-C

2015-12-01

Human papillomaviruses (HPV) are associated with head and neck cancers (H&NC). Transmission of HPV to the upper aerodigestive tract occurs plausibly through sexual contact, although epidemiologic evidence on the role of sexual behaviours in H&NC aetiology is inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies examining the association between four indicators of sexual behaviours (number of sexual partners and oral sex partners, oral sex practice, and age at first intercourse) and H&NC. Summary odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using fixed and random effects models for each indicator, contrasting 'highest' to 'lowest', 'ever' to 'never', or 'youngest' to 'oldest' categories. Twenty case-control studies were included out of 3838 identified publications. Using random effects models, summary ORs suggested an increased risk of H&NC for number of sexual partners [OR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.02-1.63] (19 studies) and number of oral sex partners [OR=1.69, 95% CI: 1.00-2.84] (5 studies), whereas no effect was observed with oral sex practice [OR=1.09, 95% CI: 0.88-1.35] (17 studies) and age at first intercourse [OR=1.40, 95% CI: 0.71-2.79] (6 studies). For number of sexual partners and oral sex practice, which were assessed in more studies, we further excluded studies contributing to heterogeneity and those not adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and alcohol consumption. The summary ORs were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.75-1.20) for number of sexual partners and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.84-1.26) for oral sex practice. Our findings highlight that observed associations might be partly attributed to confounding effects of sociodemographic and behavioural factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vapor Intrusion Estimation Tool for Unsaturated Zone Contaminant Sources. User’s Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-30

324449 Page Intentionally Left Blank iii Executive Summary Soil vapor extraction (SVE) is a prevalent remediation approach for volatile contaminants...strength and location, vadose zone transport, and a model for estimating movement of soil -gas vapor contamination into buildings. The tool may be...framework for estimating the impact of a vadose zone contaminant source on soil gas concentrations and vapor intrusion into a building

Development of Parallel Architectures for Sensor Array Processing. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-08-01

required for the DOA estimation [ 1-7]. The Multiple Signal Classification ( MUSIC ) [ 1] and the Estimation of Signal Parameters by Rotational...manifold and the estimated subspace. Although MUSIC is a high resolution algorithm, it has several drawbacks including the fact that complete knowledge of...thoroughly, MUSIC algorithm was selected to develop special purpose hardware for real time computation. Summary of the MUSIC algorithm is as follows

Nonparametric estimation of the multivariate survivor function: the multivariate Kaplan-Meier estimator.

PubMed

Prentice, Ross L; Zhao, Shanshan

2018-01-01

The Dabrowska (Ann Stat 16:1475-1489, 1988) product integral representation of the multivariate survivor function is extended, leading to a nonparametric survivor function estimator for an arbitrary number of failure time variates that has a simple recursive formula for its calculation. Empirical process methods are used to sketch proofs for this estimator's strong consistency and weak convergence properties. Summary measures of pairwise and higher-order dependencies are also defined and nonparametrically estimated. Simulation evaluation is given for the special case of three failure time variates.

77 FR 43412 - 30-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: DS 7655, Iraqi Citizens and Nationals Employed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-24

... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice 7960] 30-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: DS 7655... public comment and submission to OMB of proposed collection of information. SUMMARY: The Department of... agreement partners of the Department of State. Estimated Number of Respondents: 50. Estimated Number of...

Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the first quarter (January-March) of 2009 : a brief statistical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first quarter of 2009 shows that an estimated 7,689 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 9 percent as compared to the 8,451 fatalities that occurred in...

Fatality Analysis Reporting System, General Estimates System: 2001 Data Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2003

The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), which became operational in 1975, contains data on a census of fatal traffic crashes within the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The General Estimates System (GES), which began in 1988, provides data from a nationally representative probability sample selected from all…

78 FR 71731 - 2014 Standards for the Renewable Fuel Standard Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-29

... of E85 Consumption c. Proposed Projection of E85 Consumption in 2014 d. Estimating Total Ethanol Consumption in 2014 2. Estimating Availability of Non-Ethanol Renewable Fuel Volumes a. Non-Ethanol Cellulosic... Biofuel c. Option 3: Availability, Growth, and Limits on Ethanol Consumption D. Summary of Proposed Volume...

Parameter Estimation for Real Filtered Sinusoids

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

Statistical Signal Processing: Detection, Estimation and Time Series Analysis. New York: Addison-Wesley, 1991. 74. Serway , Raymond A . Physics for...Dr. Yung Kee Yeo, Dean’s Representative Dr. Robert A . Calico, Jr., Dean Table of Contents Page List of Abbreviations...Contributions ....... ...................... 5-4 5.4 Summary ........ ............................. 5-6 Appendix A . Vector-Matrix Differentiation

Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the first half (January-June) of 2010 : a brief statistical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first half of : 2010 shows that an estimated 14,996 people died in motor : vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 9.2 : percent as compared to the 16,509 fatalities that occu...

PROTOCOL - A COMPUTERIZED SOLID WASTE QUANTITY AND COMPOSITION ESTIMATION SYSTEM. Project Summary (EPA/600/S2-91/005)

EPA Science Inventory

The assumptions of traditional sampling theory often do not fit the circumstances when estimating the quantity and composition of solid waste arriving at a given location, such as a landfill site, or at a specific point in an industrial or commercial process. The investigator oft...

Summary of Methods for Measuring Electrical Properties of Geological Strata to Estimate Electromagnetic Shielding Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-04-01

commercially for conventional surface resistivity measure- ments. Lead or copper wire wrapped around an insulating cable is used for the downhole...3 x 106 -- Igneous rocks, basic Augite porphyry Kola Peninsula 9.5-12.6 105-107 Dry Basalt Berestovetskoe 15.6 5 x 10 5 Dry Basalt Kutai 10.3 5 x...acidic Granite Azerbaidjan 3.0 x 107 -- Granite Ubinskoe 0.36 x 109 3.2 x 1018 Granite Kola Peninsula 0.16 x 105 0.3 x 1016 Granite porphyry 4.5 x 10 5

Department of the Air Force Supporting Data for Fiscal Year 1983, Budget Estimates Submitted to Congress February 1982. Descriptive Summaries. Research, Development, Test and Evaluation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

effects in plasmas has led to near millimeter wave production from the world’s shortest wavelength Cerenkov source. This source offers the...repaired runways led to interim guidance for operation of the fleet and potential modifications to improve fleet capabilities, (4) an advanced...technology developed under this project has led to the qualification of Department of Defense fuels and lubricants such as JP-4, JP-5, JP-/, JP-8, JP-9, JP

Prevalence of Depression, Depressive Symptoms, and Suicidal Ideation Among Medical Students: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Rotenstein, Lisa S; Ramos, Marco A; Torre, Matthew; Segal, J Bradley; Peluso, Michael J; Guille, Constance; Sen, Srijan; Mata, Douglas A

2016-12-06

Medical students are at high risk for depression and suicidal ideation. However, the prevalence estimates of these disorders vary between studies. To estimate the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, and suicidal ideation in medical students. Systematic search of EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, psycARTICLES, and psycINFO without language restriction for studies on the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation in medical students published before September 17, 2016. Studies that were published in the peer-reviewed literature and used validated assessment methods were included. Information on study characteristics; prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation; and whether students who screened positive for depression sought treatment was extracted independently by 3 investigators. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences by study-level characteristics were estimated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. Point or period prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation as assessed by validated questionnaire or structured interview. Depression or depressive symptom prevalence data were extracted from 167 cross-sectional studies (n = 116 628) and 16 longitudinal studies (n = 5728) from 43 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms was 27.2% (37 933/122 356 individuals; 95% CI, 24.7% to 29.9%, I2 = 98.9%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 9.3% to 55.9%. Depressive symptom prevalence remained relatively constant over the period studied (baseline survey year range of 1982-2015; slope, 0.2% increase per year [95% CI, -0.2% to 0.7%]). In the 9 longitudinal studies that assessed depressive symptoms before and during medical school (n = 2432), the median absolute increase in symptoms was 13.5% (range, 0.6% to 35.3%). Prevalence estimates did not significantly differ between studies of only preclinical students and studies of only clinical students (23.7% [95% CI, 19.5% to 28.5%] vs 22.4% [95% CI, 17.6% to 28.2%]; P = .72). The percentage of medical students screening positive for depression who sought psychiatric treatment was 15.7% (110/954 individuals; 95% CI, 10.2% to 23.4%, I2 = 70.1%). Suicidal ideation prevalence data were extracted from 24 cross-sectional studies (n = 21 002) from 15 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of suicidal ideation was 11.1% (2043/21 002 individuals; 95% CI, 9.0% to 13.7%, I2 = 95.8%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 7.4% to 24.2%. In this systematic review, the summary estimate of the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among medical students was 27.2% and that of suicidal ideation was 11.1%. Further research is needed to identify strategies for preventing and treating these disorders in this population.

Prevalence of Depression, Depressive Symptoms, and Suicidal Ideation Among Medical Students

PubMed Central

Rotenstein, Lisa S.; Ramos, Marco A.; Torre, Matthew; Segal, J. Bradley; Peluso, Michael J.; Guille, Constance; Sen, Srijan; Mata, Douglas A.

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE Medical students are at high risk for depression and suicidal ideation. However, the prevalence estimates of these disorders vary between studies. OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, and suicidal ideation in medical students. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Systematic search of EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, psycARTICLES, and psycINFO without language restriction for studies on the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation in medical students published before September 17, 2016. Studies that were published in the peer-reviewed literature and used validated assessment methods were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Information on study characteristics; prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation; and whether students who screened positive for depression sought treatment was extracted independently by 3 investigators. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences by study-level characteristics were estimated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Point or period prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation as assessed by validated questionnaire or structured interview. RESULTS Depression or depressive symptom prevalence data were extracted from 167 cross-sectional studies (n = 116 628) and 16 longitudinal studies (n = 5728) from 43 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms was 27.2% (37 933/122 356 individuals; 95% CI, 24.7% to 29.9%, I2 = 98.9%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 9.3% to 55.9%. Depressive symptom prevalence remained relatively constant over the period studied (baseline survey year range of 1982–2015; slope, 0.2% increase per year [95% CI, −0.2% to 0.7%]). In the 9 longitudinal studies that assessed depressive symptoms before and during medical school (n = 2432), the median absolute increase in symptoms was 13.5% (range, 0.6% to 35.3%). Prevalence estimates did not significantly differ between studies of only preclinical students and studies of only clinical students (23.7% [95% CI, 19.5% to 28.5%] vs 22.4% [95% CI, 17.6% to 28.2%]; P = .72). The percentage of medical students screening positive for depression who sought psychiatric treatment was 15.7% (110/954 individuals; 95% CI, 10.2% to 23.4%, I2 = 70.1%). Suicidal ideation prevalence data were extracted from 24 cross-sectional studies (n = 21 002) from 15 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of suicidal ideation was 11.1% (2043/21 002 individuals; 95% CI, 9.0% to 13.7%, I2 = 95.8%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 7.4% to 24.2%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this systematic review, the summary estimate of the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among medical students was 27.2% and that of suicidal ideation was 11.1%. Further research is needed to identify strategies for preventing and treating these disorders in this population. PMID:27923088

Meeting report: Estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants--summary of 2009 workshop and future considerations.

PubMed

Gwinn, Maureen R; Craig, Jeneva; Axelrad, Daniel A; Cook, Rich; Dockins, Chris; Fann, Neal; Fegley, Robert; Guinnup, David E; Helfand, Gloria; Hubbell, Bryan; Mazur, Sarah L; Palma, Ted; Smith, Roy L; Vandenberg, John; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2011-01-01

Quantifying the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, or air toxics) has been limited by gaps in toxicological data, uncertainties in extrapolating results from high-dose animal experiments to estimate human effects at lower doses, limited ambient and personal exposure monitoring data, and insufficient economic research to support valuation of the health impacts often associated with exposure to individual air toxics. To address some of these issues, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency held the Workshop on Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) in Washington, DC, from 30 April to 1 May 2009. Experts from multiple disciplines discussed how best to move forward on air toxics benefits assessment, with a focus on developing near-term capability to conduct quantitative benefits assessment. Proposed methodologies involved analysis of data-rich pollutants and application of this analysis to other pollutants, using dose-response modeling of animal data for estimating benefits to humans, determining dose-equivalence relationships for different chemicals with similar health effects, and analysis similar to that used for criteria pollutants. Limitations and uncertainties in economic valuation of benefits assessment for HAPS were discussed as well. These discussions highlighted the complexities in estimating the benefits of reducing air toxics, and participants agreed that alternative methods for benefits assessment of HAPs are needed. Recommendations included clearly defining the key priorities of the Clean Air Act air toxics program to identify the most effective approaches for HAPs benefits analysis, focusing on susceptible and vulnerable populations, and improving dose-response estimation for quantification of benefits.

Using regression equations built from summary data in the psychological assessment of the individual case: extension to multiple regression.

PubMed

Crawford, John R; Garthwaite, Paul H; Denham, Annie K; Chelune, Gordon J

2012-12-01

Regression equations have many useful roles in psychological assessment. Moreover, there is a large reservoir of published data that could be used to build regression equations; these equations could then be employed to test a wide variety of hypotheses concerning the functioning of individual cases. This resource is currently underused because (a) not all psychologists are aware that regression equations can be built not only from raw data but also using only basic summary data for a sample, and (b) the computations involved are tedious and prone to error. In an attempt to overcome these barriers, Crawford and Garthwaite (2007) provided methods to build and apply simple linear regression models using summary statistics as data. In the present study, we extend this work to set out the steps required to build multiple regression models from sample summary statistics and the further steps required to compute the associated statistics for drawing inferences concerning an individual case. We also develop, describe, and make available a computer program that implements these methods. Although there are caveats associated with the use of the methods, these need to be balanced against pragmatic considerations and against the alternative of either entirely ignoring a pertinent data set or using it informally to provide a clinical "guesstimate." Upgraded versions of earlier programs for regression in the single case are also provided; these add the point and interval estimates of effect size developed in the present article.

Advanced transportation system studies technical area 2(TA-2): Heavy lift launch vehicle development. volume 1; Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCurry, J.

1995-01-01

The purpose of the TA-2 contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. This document is part of the final report for the TA-2 contract. The final report consists of three volumes: Volume 1 is the Executive Summary, Volume 2 is Technical Results, and Volume 3 is Program Cost Estimates. The document-at-hand, Volume 1, provides a summary description of the technical activities that were performed over the entire contract duration, covering three distinct launch vehicle definition activities: heavy-lift (300,000 pounds injected mass to low Earth orbit) launch vehicles for the First Lunar Outpost (FLO), medium-lift (50,000-80,000 pounds injected mass to low Earth orbit) launch vehicles, and single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicles (25,000 pounds injected mass to a Space Station orbit).

Summary of the Statement on International Travellers and Typhoid by the Committee to Advise on Tropical Medicine and Travel (CATMAT)

PubMed Central

Greenaway, C; Schofield, S; Henteleff, A; Plourde, P; Geduld, J; Abdel-Motagally, M; Bryson, M

2014-01-01

Background Typhoid fever is an enteric febrile illness with symptoms that range from mild to potentially fatal. Among Canadians it is usually acquired during travel to typhoid endemic countries. The Committee to Advise on Tropical Medicine and Travel (CATMAT) assembled a typhoid working group to update recommendations on typhoid and international travel. This document is a summary of the new typhoid statement. Methods Following a systematic review of the literature, typhoid vaccine recommendations were developed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology to evaluate data quality, benefits and harms, and values and preferences. The literature search focused on systematic reviews of typhoid vaccine efficacy and identified studies of disease burden, pathogenesis, risk factors and prevention. Other recommendations were based on a review of the retrieved literature and expert opinion. Results Typhoid vaccine is moderately effective (~50%), well tolerated, with very low risk of serious adverse events. Studies of typhoid vaccine efficacy, morbidity or mortality among travellers were not found, although studies on populations in typhoid endemic countries were identified. Among travellers, destination of travel is the strongest and most consistent typhoid risk predictor; the highest risk was for travel to South Asia. Confidence in effect estimates for other potential risk factors was very low. Recommendations CATMAT suggests that typhoid vaccine (Ty21a or Vi polysaccharide vaccine) be used for most Canadian travellers visiting South Asia and not used for most Canadian travellers visiting destinations other than South Asia. The recommendations are conditional, due to the moderate confidence in the effect estimate. For destinations other than South Asia, providers should discuss risks and vaccine benefits and harms with the traveller as well as recommend basic hygiene precautions.

Examination of wrist and hip actigraphy using a novel sleep estimation procedure☆

PubMed Central

Ray, Meredith A.; Youngstedt, Shawn D.; Zhang, Hongmei; Robb, Sara Wagner; Harmon, Brook E.; Jean-Louis, Girardin; Cai, Bo; Hurley, Thomas G.; Hébert, James R.; Bogan, Richard K.; Burch, James B.

2014-01-01

Objective Improving and validating sleep scoring algorithms for actigraphs enhances their usefulness in clinical and research applications. The MTI® device (ActiGraph, Pensacola, FL) had not been previously validated for sleep. The aims were to (1) compare the accuracy of sleep metrics obtained via wrist- and hip-mounted MTI® actigraphs with polysomnographic (PSG) recordings in a sample that included both normal sleepers and individuals with presumed sleep disorders; and (2) develop a novel sleep scoring algorithm using spline regression to improve the correspondence between the actigraphs and PSG. Methods Original actigraphy data were amplified and their pattern was estimated using a penalized spline. The magnitude of amplification and the spline were estimated by minimizing the difference in sleep efficiency between wrist- (hip-) actigraphs and PSG recordings. Sleep measures using both the original and spline-modified actigraphy data were compared to PSG using the following: mean sleep summary measures; Spearman rank-order correlations of summary measures; percent of minute-by-minute agreement; sensitivity and specificity; and Bland–Altman plots. Results The original wrist actigraphy data showed modest correspondence with PSG, and much less correspondence was found between hip actigraphy and PSG. The spline-modified wrist actigraphy produced better approximations of interclass correlations, sensitivity, and mean sleep summary measures relative to PSG than the original wrist actigraphy data. The spline-modified hip actigraphy provided improved correspondence, but sleep measures were still not representative of PSG. Discussion The results indicate that with some refinement, the spline regression method has the potential to improve sleep estimates obtained using wrist actigraphy. PMID:25580202

A Powerful Procedure for Pathway-Based Meta-analysis Using Summary Statistics Identifies 43 Pathways Associated with Type II Diabetes in European Populations.

PubMed

Zhang, Han; Wheeler, William; Hyland, Paula L; Yang, Yifan; Shi, Jianxin; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Yu, Kai

2016-06-01

Meta-analysis of multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has become an effective approach for detecting single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with complex traits. However, it is difficult to integrate the readily accessible SNP-level summary statistics from a meta-analysis into more powerful multi-marker testing procedures, which generally require individual-level genetic data. We developed a general procedure called Summary based Adaptive Rank Truncated Product (sARTP) for conducting gene and pathway meta-analysis that uses only SNP-level summary statistics in combination with genotype correlation estimated from a panel of individual-level genetic data. We demonstrated the validity and power advantage of sARTP through empirical and simulated data. We conducted a comprehensive pathway-based meta-analysis with sARTP on type 2 diabetes (T2D) by integrating SNP-level summary statistics from two large studies consisting of 19,809 T2D cases and 111,181 controls with European ancestry. Among 4,713 candidate pathways from which genes in neighborhoods of 170 GWAS established T2D loci were excluded, we detected 43 T2D globally significant pathways (with Bonferroni corrected p-values < 0.05), which included the insulin signaling pathway and T2D pathway defined by KEGG, as well as the pathways defined according to specific gene expression patterns on pancreatic adenocarcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and bladder carcinoma. Using summary data from 8 eastern Asian T2D GWAS with 6,952 cases and 11,865 controls, we showed 7 out of the 43 pathways identified in European populations remained to be significant in eastern Asians at the false discovery rate of 0.1. We created an R package and a web-based tool for sARTP with the capability to analyze pathways with thousands of genes and tens of thousands of SNPs.

A Powerful Procedure for Pathway-Based Meta-analysis Using Summary Statistics Identifies 43 Pathways Associated with Type II Diabetes in European Populations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Han; Wheeler, William; Hyland, Paula L.; Yang, Yifan; Shi, Jianxin; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Yu, Kai

2016-01-01

Meta-analysis of multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has become an effective approach for detecting single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with complex traits. However, it is difficult to integrate the readily accessible SNP-level summary statistics from a meta-analysis into more powerful multi-marker testing procedures, which generally require individual-level genetic data. We developed a general procedure called Summary based Adaptive Rank Truncated Product (sARTP) for conducting gene and pathway meta-analysis that uses only SNP-level summary statistics in combination with genotype correlation estimated from a panel of individual-level genetic data. We demonstrated the validity and power advantage of sARTP through empirical and simulated data. We conducted a comprehensive pathway-based meta-analysis with sARTP on type 2 diabetes (T2D) by integrating SNP-level summary statistics from two large studies consisting of 19,809 T2D cases and 111,181 controls with European ancestry. Among 4,713 candidate pathways from which genes in neighborhoods of 170 GWAS established T2D loci were excluded, we detected 43 T2D globally significant pathways (with Bonferroni corrected p-values < 0.05), which included the insulin signaling pathway and T2D pathway defined by KEGG, as well as the pathways defined according to specific gene expression patterns on pancreatic adenocarcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and bladder carcinoma. Using summary data from 8 eastern Asian T2D GWAS with 6,952 cases and 11,865 controls, we showed 7 out of the 43 pathways identified in European populations remained to be significant in eastern Asians at the false discovery rate of 0.1. We created an R package and a web-based tool for sARTP with the capability to analyze pathways with thousands of genes and tens of thousands of SNPs. PMID:27362418

Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peffley, Al F.

1991-01-01

The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

PRELIM: Predictive Relevance Estimation from Linked Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-14

code ) 14-10-2014 Final Report 11-07-2014 to 14-10-2014 PRELIM: Predictive Relevance Estimation from Linked Models N00014-14-P-1185 10257H. Van Dyke...Parunak, Ph.D. Soar Technology, Inc. 1 Executive  Summary   PRELIM (Predictive Relevance Estimation from Linked Models) draws on semantic models...The central challenge in proactive decision support is to anticipate the decision and information needs of decision-makers, in the light of likely

Test Equality between Three Treatments under an Incomplete Block Crossover Design.

PubMed

Lui, Kung-Jong

2015-01-01

Under a random effects linear additive risk model, we compare two experimental treatments with a placebo in continuous data under an incomplete block crossover trial. We develop three test procedures for simultaneously testing equality between two experimental treatments and a placebo, as well as interval estimators for the mean difference between treatments. We apply Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of these test procedures and interval estimators in a variety of situations. We note that the bivariate test procedure accounting for the dependence structure based on the F-test is preferable to the other two procedures when there is only one of the two experimental treatments has a non-zero effect vs. the placebo. We note further that when the effects of the two experimental treatments vs. a placebo are in the same relative directions and are approximately of equal magnitude, the summary test procedure based on a simple average of two weighted-least-squares (WLS) estimators can outperform the other two procedures with respect to power. When one of the two experimental treatments has a relatively large effect vs. the placebo, the univariate test procedure with using Bonferroni's equality can be still of use. Finally, we use the data about the forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) readings taken from a double-blind crossover trial comparing two different doses of formoterol with a placebo to illustrate the use of test procedures and interval estimators proposed here.

Relationship between financial impact and coverage of drugs in Australia.

PubMed

Mauskopf, Josephine; Chirila, Costel; Masaquel, Catherine; Boye, Kristina S; Bowman, Lee; Birt, Julie; Grainger, David

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the relationship between the financial impact of a new drug and the recommendation for reimbursement by the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC). Data in the PBAC summary database were abstracted for decisions made between July 2005 and November 2009. Financial impact-the upper bound of the values presented in the PBAC summary database-was categorized as ≤A$0, >A$0 up to A$10 million, A$10 million up to A$30 million, and >A$30 million per year. Descriptive, logistic, survival, and recursive partitioning decision analyses were used to estimate the relationship between the financial impact of a new drug indication and the recommendation for reimbursement. Multivariable analyses controlled for other clinical and economic variables, including cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Financial impact was a significant predictor of the recommendation for reimbursement. In the logistic analysis, the odds ratios of reimbursement for drug submissions with financial impacts ≥A$10 million to ≥A$30 million or >A$0 to

Executive Summary - Natural Gas and the Transformation of the U.S. Energy Sector: Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Logan, J.; Heath, G.; Macknick, J.

In November 2012, the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) released a new report, 'Natural Gas and the Transformation of the U.S. Energy Sector: Electricity.' The study provides a new methodological approach to estimate natural gas related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, tracks trends in regulatory and voluntary industry practices, and explores various electricity futures. The Executive Summary provides key findings, insights, data, and figures from this major study.

Estimating College Enrollment Rates for Virginia Public High School Graduates. Summary. Issues & Answers. REL 2011-No. 104

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holian, Laura; Mokher, Christine

2011-01-01

This brief document summarizes findings from "Estimating College Enrollment Rates for Virginia Public High School Graduates. Issues & Answers. REL 2011-No. 104." Using data from the National Student Clearinghouse and the Virginia Department of Education, the report examines college enrollment rates overall and by student academic and…

50 CFR 679.45 - IFQ cost recovery program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) Responsibility. The person documented on the IFQ permit as the permit holder at the time of an IFQ landing must... IFQ pounds landed during that IFQ fishing year for each permit as part of the IFQ Landing and Estimated Fee Liability page described at § 679.5(l)(7)(ii)(C)(2). The summary will include an estimated IFQ...

50 CFR 679.45 - IFQ cost recovery program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Responsibility. The person documented on the IFQ permit as the permit holder at the time of an IFQ landing must... IFQ pounds landed during that IFQ fishing year for each permit as part of the IFQ Landing and Estimated Fee Liability page described at § 679.5(l)(7)(ii)(C)(2). The summary will include an estimated IFQ...

Air-Mobile Ground Security and Surveillance System (AMGSSS) Project Summary Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

significantly to the cost and 5 lb or more to the weight . 15 5.3.3 Laser Ranging A Contraves laser rangefinder is recommended if the high cost is not...8 3.2 .4 B atteries ....................................................... 8 3.2.5 Payload Weight and Power...concept payload weight and power estimate ........................... 9 3. System battery estim ate

Maximizing mitigation benefits : project summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-30

The research team: : - Reviewed methods, techniques, and : processes at select state DOTs for estimating : mitigations costs for the following states: : Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, New : York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, : Pennsylvania,...

Ischemic Stroke Risk in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc Score of 1: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Joundi, Raed A; Cipriano, Lauren E; Sposato, Luciano A; Saposnik, Gustavo

2016-05-01

The CHA2DS2-VASc score aims to improve risk stratification of ischemic stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation to identify those who can safely forego oral anticoagulation. Oral anticoagulation treatment guidelines remain uncertain for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk of ischemic stroke for patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0, 1, or 2 not treated with oral anticoagulation. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Web of Science from the start of the database up until April 15, 2015. We included studies that stratified the risk of ischemic stroke by CHA2DS2-VASc score for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. We estimated the summary annual rate of ischemic stroke using random effects meta-analyses and compared the estimated stroke rates with published net-benefit thresholds for initiating anticoagulants. 1162 abstracts were retrieved, of which 10 met all inclusion criteria for the study. There was substantial heterogeneity among studies. The summary estimate for the annual risk of ischemic stroke was 1.61% (95% confidence interval 0%-3.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1, meeting the theoretical threshold for using novel oral anticoagulants (0.9%), but below the threshold for warfarin (1.7%). The summary incident risk of ischemic stroke was 0.68% (95% confidence interval 0.12%-1.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 and 2.49% (95% confidence interval 1.16%-3.83%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2. Our meta-analysis of ischemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation patients suggests that those with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1 may be considered for a novel oral anticoagulant, but because of high heterogeneity, the decision should be based on individual patient characteristics. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Epidemiology of Injuries in Mixed Martial Arts

PubMed Central

Lystad, Reidar P.; Gregory, Kobi; Wilson, Juno

2014-01-01

Background: Mixed martial arts (MMA) has experienced a surge in popularity since emerging in the 1990s, but the sport has also faced concomitant criticism from public, political, and medical holds. Notwithstanding the polarized discourse concerning the sport, no systematic review of the injury problems in MMA has been published to date. Purpose: To systematically review the epidemiologic data on injuries in MMA and to quantitatively estimate injury incidence and risk factor effect sizes. Study Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Electronic searching of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, EMBASE, AMED, and SPORTDiscus databases to identify studies reporting on the epidemiology of injuries in MMA. Random-effects models were used to obtain pooled summary estimates of the injury incidence rate per 1000 athlete-exposures (IIRAE) and rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity was evaluated with the I 2 statistic. Results: A total of 6 studies were eligible for inclusion in this review. The IIRAE summary estimate was found to be 228.7 (95% CI, 110.4-473.5). No studies reported injury severity. The most commonly injured anatomic region was the head (range, 66.8%-78.0%) followed by the wrist/hand (range, 6.0%-12.0%), while the most frequent injury types were laceration (range, 36.7%-59.4%), fracture (range, 7.4%-43.3%), and concussion (range, 3.8%-20.4%). The most notable risk factors pertained to the outcome of bouts. Losers incurred 3 times as many injuries as winners, and fighters in bouts ending with knockout or technical knockout incurred more than 2 times as many injuries as fighters in bouts ending with submission. Conclusion: Notwithstanding the paucity of data, the injury incidence in MMA appears to be greater than in most, if not all, other popular and commonly practiced combat sports. In general, the injury pattern in MMA is very similar to that in professional boxing but unlike that found in other combat sports such as judo and taekwondo. More epidemiologic research is urgently needed to improve the accuracy of the injury incidence estimate, to determine the injury severity, and to identify more risk factors for injury in MMA. PMID:26535267

The Epidemiology of Injuries in Mixed Martial Arts: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lystad, Reidar P; Gregory, Kobi; Wilson, Juno

2014-01-01

Mixed martial arts (MMA) has experienced a surge in popularity since emerging in the 1990s, but the sport has also faced concomitant criticism from public, political, and medical holds. Notwithstanding the polarized discourse concerning the sport, no systematic review of the injury problems in MMA has been published to date. To systematically review the epidemiologic data on injuries in MMA and to quantitatively estimate injury incidence and risk factor effect sizes. Systematic review and meta-analysis; Level of evidence, 4. Electronic searching of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, EMBASE, AMED, and SPORTDiscus databases to identify studies reporting on the epidemiology of injuries in MMA. Random-effects models were used to obtain pooled summary estimates of the injury incidence rate per 1000 athlete-exposures (IIRAE) and rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity was evaluated with the I (2) statistic. A total of 6 studies were eligible for inclusion in this review. The IIRAE summary estimate was found to be 228.7 (95% CI, 110.4-473.5). No studies reported injury severity. The most commonly injured anatomic region was the head (range, 66.8%-78.0%) followed by the wrist/hand (range, 6.0%-12.0%), while the most frequent injury types were laceration (range, 36.7%-59.4%), fracture (range, 7.4%-43.3%), and concussion (range, 3.8%-20.4%). The most notable risk factors pertained to the outcome of bouts. Losers incurred 3 times as many injuries as winners, and fighters in bouts ending with knockout or technical knockout incurred more than 2 times as many injuries as fighters in bouts ending with submission. Notwithstanding the paucity of data, the injury incidence in MMA appears to be greater than in most, if not all, other popular and commonly practiced combat sports. In general, the injury pattern in MMA is very similar to that in professional boxing but unlike that found in other combat sports such as judo and taekwondo. More epidemiologic research is urgently needed to improve the accuracy of the injury incidence estimate, to determine the injury severity, and to identify more risk factors for injury in MMA.

The Effects of Message Summaries on the Immediate Free Recall of Main Points.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shellen, Wesley N.

This study was designed to test the effects of message summaries on the recall of main points of an informative message. Two different types of summary techniques, a mnemonic and a traditional type, were identified and compared with each other and with a third treatment involving no summaries. One hundred and eleven volunteer subjects were…

Learning with Summaries: Effects of Representation Mode and Type of Learning Activity on Comprehension and Transfer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leopold, Claudia; Sumfleth, Elke; Leutner, Detlev

2013-01-01

The purpose of the experiment was to examine whether students better understand a science text when they are asked to self-generate summaries or to study predefined summaries. Furthermore, we tested the effects of verbal and pictorial summaries. The experiment followed a 2 x 2 design with representation mode (verbal vs. pictorial) and learning…

Seeing number using texture: How summary statistics account for reductions in perceived numerosity in the visual periphery.

PubMed

Balas, Benjamin

2016-11-01

Peripheral visual perception is characterized by reduced information about appearance due to constraints on how image structure is represented. Visual crowding is a consequence of excessive integration in the visual periphery. Basic phenomenology of visual crowding and other tasks have been successfully accounted for by a summary-statistic model of pooling, suggesting that texture-like processing is useful for how information is reduced in peripheral vision. I attempt to extend the scope of this model by examining a property of peripheral vision: reduced perceived numerosity in the periphery. I demonstrate that a summary-statistic model of peripheral appearance accounts for reduced numerosity in peripherally viewed arrays of randomly placed dots, but does not account for observed effects of dot clustering within such arrays. The model thus offers a limited account of how numerosity is perceived in the visual periphery. I also demonstrate that the model predicts that numerosity estimation is sensitive to element shape, which represents a novel prediction regarding the phenomenology of peripheral numerosity perception. Finally, I discuss ways to extend the model to a broader range of behavior and the potential for using the model to make further predictions about how number is perceived in untested scenarios in peripheral vision.

Subscales of the vestibular activities and participation questionnaire could be applied across cultures.

PubMed

Mueller, Martin; Whitney, Susan L; Alghwiri, Alia; Alshebber, Kefah; Strobl, Ralf; Alghadir, Ahmad; Al-momani, Murad O; Furman, Joseph M; Grill, Eva

2015-02-01

The objective of this study was to assess the objectivity, cross-cultural validity, and convergent validity of the Vestibular Activities and Participation (VAP) questionnaire among four countries, Germany, United States, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. This was a cross-sectional study conducted in four specialized outpatient dizziness clinics in Germany, United States, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. A total of 453 participants were included in the study. The Rasch analysis revealed two separate subscales. Subscale 1 items included focusing attention, lying down, standing, bending, lifting and carrying objects, and sports. Subscale 2 items included walking long distances, climbing, running, moving around within buildings other than home, using transportation, and driving. The Pearson product-moment correlation between the Dizziness Handicap Inventory and the summary score of the VAP subscale 1 was 0.66 and was 0.64 for subscale 2. Owing to its shortness and intercultural adaptability, the new two-scale version of the VAP questionnaire lends itself to clinical practice and research across countries to estimate the effect of vertigo and dizziness on activity limitation and participation restrictions. Psychometrically sound summary scores can be calculated. More extended versions of the VAP can be used for comprehensive clinical assessment where summary scores are not needed or a more detailed documentation is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weatherization Works II - Summary of Findings from the ARRA Period Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, Bruce Edward; Carroll, David; Rose, Erin M.

2015-10-01

This report presents a summary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s low-income Weatherization Program. This evaluation focused on the WAP Program Year 2010. The ARRA evaluation produced fourteen separate reports, including this summary. Three separate reports address the energy savings, energy cost savings, and cost effectiveness of WAP across four housing types: single family, mobile home, and large multifamily. Other reports address the environmental emissions benefits attributable to WAP, and characterize the program. Special studies were conducted to: estimate the impacts of weatherization and healthy homes interventions onmore » asthma-related Medicaid claims in a small cohort in Washington State; assess how weatherization recipients communicate their weatherization experiences to those in their social network, and assess processes implemented to defer homes for weatherization. Small studies addressed energy use in refrigerators, WAP as implemented in the U.S. territories for the first time, and weatherization s impacts on air conditioning energy savings. The national occupant survey was mined for additional insights on the impacts of weatherization on household budgets and energy behaviors post-weatherization. Lastly, the results of a survey of weatherization training centers are summarized.« less

Hierarchical modeling of population stability and species group attributes from survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

2002-01-01

Many ecological studies require analysis of collections of estimates. For example, population change is routinely estimated for many species from surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and the species are grouped and used in comparative analyses. We developed a hierarchical model for estimation of group attributes from a collection of estimates of population trend. The model uses information from predefined groups of species to provide a context and to supplement data for individual species; summaries of group attributes are improved by statistical methods that simultaneously analyze collections of trend estimates. The model is Bayesian; trends are treated as random variables rather than fixed parameters. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to fit the model. Standard assessments of population stability cannot distinguish magnitude of trend and statistical significance of trend estimates, but the hierarchical model allows us to legitimately describe the probability that a trend is within given bounds. Thus we define population stability in terms of the probability that the magnitude of population change for a species is less than or equal to a predefined threshold. We applied the model to estimates of trend for 399 species from the BBS to estimate the proportion of species with increasing populations and to identify species with unstable populations. Analyses are presented for the collection of all species and for 12 species groups commonly used in BBS summaries. Overall, we estimated that 49% of species in the BBS have positive trends and 33 species have unstable populations. However, the proportion of species with increasing trends differs among habitat groups, with grassland birds having only 19% of species with positive trend estimates and wetland birds having 68% of species with positive trend estimates.

Photodestruction rates for cometary parent molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crovisier, J.

1994-02-01

New evaluations of the photodestruction rates for several molecules of cometary interest are presented along with a critical comparison with other estimations from 1976 to 1993, and a summary of the need for future laboratory measurements. Photodestruction rates for a heliocentric distance of 1 AU (assuming the quiet Sun reference spectrum of Huebner and Carpenter) are tabulated for molecules from the water group, hydrocarbons, CO group, CHO species, nitrogen compounds, and sulfur compounds. Inspection of the table shows reasonable agreement between new and previously calculated photodestruction rates. Further work is needed on unstable species, photodissociation channel and quantum yields, temperature effects, kinematics and anistropic ejection of the fragments, and the effects of solar radiation field variations.

Multiple Phenotype Association Tests Using Summary Statistics in Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhonghua; Lin, Xihong

2017-01-01

Summary We study in this paper jointly testing the associations of a genetic variant with correlated multiple phenotypes using the summary statistics of individual phenotype analysis from Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWASs). We estimated the between-phenotype correlation matrix using the summary statistics of individual phenotype GWAS analyses, and developed genetic association tests for multiple phenotypes by accounting for between-phenotype correlation without the need to access individual-level data. Since genetic variants often affect multiple phenotypes differently across the genome and the between-phenotype correlation can be arbitrary, we proposed robust and powerful multiple phenotype testing procedures by jointly testing a common mean and a variance component in linear mixed models for summary statistics. We computed the p-values of the proposed tests analytically. This computational advantage makes our methods practically appealing in large-scale GWASs. We performed simulation studies to show that the proposed tests maintained correct type I error rates, and to compare their powers in various settings with the existing methods. We applied the proposed tests to a GWAS Global Lipids Genetics Consortium summary statistics data set and identified additional genetic variants that were missed by the original single-trait analysis. PMID:28653391

A Summary of NASA Related Contributions for the Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration in Support of Water Management and Agriculture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toll, David; Doorn, Brad; Lawford, Rick; Anderson, Martha; Allen, Rick; Martin, Timothy; Wood, Eric; Ferguson, Craig

2010-01-01

The amount of evapotranspiration (ET) to the atmosphere can account for 60% or more of the water loss in many semi-arid locations, and can critically affect local economies tied to agriculture, recreation, hydroelectric power, ecosystems, and numerous other water-related areas. NASA supports many activities using satellite and Earth science data to more accurately and cost effectively estimate ET. NASA ET related work includes the research, development and application of techniques. The free and open access of NASA satellite data and products now permits a much wider application of ET mapping. Typically the NASA supported approaches ranges from large regional and continental ET mapping using MODIS (also with AIRS and CERES), GRACE (gravimetric water balance), geostationary (e.g., GOES and Meteosat for near continental sca|e), land surface modeling (i.e, Land Data Assimilation Systems) to fine scale mapping such as provided bvLandsatdata(<100 m). Usually satellite or airborne thermal imagery are used as input to an ET estimated surface energy balance based approach. There are currently several of these ET approaches under development and implementation including 'METRIC', 'SEBS', 'ALEXI/DisALEXI', etc.. One exception is an approach using GRACE satellite data that estimates the terrestrial water storage using gravimetric data over large areas and estimates ET indirectly. Also land surface modeling within the context of data assimilation and integration schemes provides the capability to integrate in situ, ancillary and satellite together to provide a spatially and synoptic estimates of ET also for use to provide for short-term ET predictions. We will summarize NASA related activities contributing to the improved estimation of ET for water management and agriculture with an emphasis on the Western U3.. This summary includes a description of ET projects in the Middle Rio Grande, Yakima, North Platte and other selected basins in the western US. We will also discuss plans to further address ET applications through working with the USDA and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to extend and evaluate western U.S. ET mapping to other parts of the U.S. and internationally.

Genetically decreased vitamin D and risk of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Mokry, Lauren E; Ross, Stephanie; Morris, John A; Manousaki, Despoina; Forgetta, Vincenzo; Richards, J Brent

2016-12-13

To test whether genetically decreased vitamin D levels are associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) using mendelian randomization (MR), a method that minimizes bias due to confounding or reverse causation. We selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels (p < 5 × 10 -8 ) from the Study of Underlying Genetic Determinants of Vitamin D and Highly Related Traits (SUNLIGHT) Consortium (N = 33,996) to act as instrumental variables for the MR study. We measured the effect of each of these SNPs on 25OHD levels in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos; N = 2,347) and obtained the corresponding effect estimates for each SNP on AD risk from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (N = 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls). To produce MR estimates, we weighted the effect of each SNP on AD by its effect on 25OHD and meta-analyzed these estimates using a fixed-effects model to provide a summary effect estimate. The SUNLIGHT Consortium identified 4 SNPs to be genome-wide significant for 25OHD, which described 2.44% of the variance in 25OHD in CaMos. All 4 SNPs map to genes within the vitamin D metabolic pathway. MR analyses demonstrated that a 1-SD decrease in natural log-transformed 25OHD increased AD risk by 25% (odds ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.51, p = 0.021). After sensitivity analysis in which we removed SNPs possibly influenced by pleiotropy and population stratification, the results were largely unchanged. Our results provide evidence supporting 25OHD as a causal risk factor for AD. These findings provide further rationale to understand the effect of vitamin D supplementation on cognition and AD risk in randomized controlled trials. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

ESP: Economics of Shipyard Painting, Bid Estimating Transfer Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-11-10

Estimating Transfer Study Final Report i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During Phase I of the “Economics of Shipyard Painting” project, it became evident that detail...an SP-3 panel directive to establish a 2nd phase of the “Economics of Shipyard Painting” focussed on applying the detailed data collected in Phase I to...bid-stage estimating. During Phase II, a program was developed that worked in tandem with the detailed data collection effort laid out in Phase I

Is there an advanced aging effect on the ability to mentally represent action?

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Caçola, Priscila; Cordova, Alberto

2011-01-01

Motor programming theory suggests that an integral component in an effective outcome is an adequate action (mental) representation of the movements; a representation reflected in the ability to use motor imagery. Recent reports show a decline with advanced age (>64 years) using a variety of motor simulation tasks. Here, we examined the possible effects of advanced age on motor imagery ability in the context of estimation of reachability--that is, estimating whether an object is within reach or out of grasp. Thirty young adults (mean age: 20) and 23 older adults (mean age: 77) were instructed to estimate, using motor imagery, whether randomly presented targets in peripersonal (within actual reach) and extrapersonal (beyond reach) space were within or out of reach of their dominant limb while seated. Results indicated that the younger group was significantly more accurate than the older adults, p < 0.001. Whereas both groups made more errors in extrapersonal space, the values were significantly higher for the older group; that is, they overestimated to a greater extent. In summary, these findings add to the general notion that there is a decline in the ability to mentally represent action with advanced age. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A general framework for the use of logistic regression models in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simmonds, Mark C; Higgins, Julian Pt

2016-12-01

Where individual participant data are available for every randomised trial in a meta-analysis of dichotomous event outcomes, "one-stage" random-effects logistic regression models have been proposed as a way to analyse these data. Such models can also be used even when individual participant data are not available and we have only summary contingency table data. One benefit of this one-stage regression model over conventional meta-analysis methods is that it maximises the correct binomial likelihood for the data and so does not require the common assumption that effect estimates are normally distributed. A second benefit of using this model is that it may be applied, with only minor modification, in a range of meta-analytic scenarios, including meta-regression, network meta-analyses and meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. This single model can potentially replace the variety of often complex methods used in these areas. This paper considers, with a range of meta-analysis examples, how random-effects logistic regression models may be used in a number of different types of meta-analyses. This one-stage approach is compared with widely used meta-analysis methods including Bayesian network meta-analysis and the bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) models for meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Joint Model for Longitudinal Measurements and Survival Data in the Presence of Multiple Failure Types

PubMed Central

Elashoff, Robert M.; Li, Gang; Li, Ning

2009-01-01

Summary In this article we study a joint model for longitudinal measurements and competing risks survival data. Our joint model provides a flexible approach to handle possible nonignorable missing data in the longitudinal measurements due to dropout. It is also an extension of previous joint models with a single failure type, offering a possible way to model informatively censored events as a competing risk. Our model consists of a linear mixed effects submodel for the longitudinal outcome and a proportional cause-specific hazards frailty submodel (Prentice et al., 1978, Biometrics 34, 541-554) for the competing risks survival data, linked together by some latent random effects. We propose to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters by an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and estimate their standard errors using a profile likelihood method. The developed method works well in our simulation studies and is applied to a clinical trial for the scleroderma lung disease. PMID:18162112

Integrative Analysis of Cancer Diagnosis Studies with Composite Penalization

PubMed Central

Liu, Jin; Huang, Jian; Ma, Shuangge

2013-01-01

Summary In cancer diagnosis studies, high-throughput gene profiling has been extensively conducted, searching for genes whose expressions may serve as markers. Data generated from such studies have the “large d, small n” feature, with the number of genes profiled much larger than the sample size. Penalization has been extensively adopted for simultaneous estimation and marker selection. Because of small sample sizes, markers identified from the analysis of single datasets can be unsatisfactory. A cost-effective remedy is to conduct integrative analysis of multiple heterogeneous datasets. In this article, we investigate composite penalization methods for estimation and marker selection in integrative analysis. The proposed methods use the minimax concave penalty (MCP) as the outer penalty. Under the homogeneity model, the ridge penalty is adopted as the inner penalty. Under the heterogeneity model, the Lasso penalty and MCP are adopted as the inner penalty. Effective computational algorithms based on coordinate descent are developed. Numerical studies, including simulation and analysis of practical cancer datasets, show satisfactory performance of the proposed methods. PMID:24578589

Rational decision-making in mental health: the role of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Gilbody, Simon M.; Petticrew, Mark

1999-09-01

BACKGROUND: "Systematic reviews" have come to be recognized as the most rigorous method of summarizing confusing and often contradictory primary research in a transparent and reproducible manner. Their greatest impact has been in the summarization of epidemiological literature - particularly that relating to clinical effectiveness. Systematic reviews also have a potential to inform rational decision-making in healthcare policy and to form a component of economic evaluation. AIMS OF THE STUDY: This article aims to introduce the rationale behind systematic reviews and, using examples from mental health, to introduce the strengths and limitations of systematic reviews, particularly in informing mental health policy and economic evaluation. METHODS: Examples are selected from recent controversies surrounding the introduction of new psychiatric drugs (anti-depressants and anti-schizophrenia drugs) and methods of delivering psychiatric care in the community (case management and assertive community treatment). The potential for systematic reviews to (i) produce best estimates of clinical efficacy and effectiveness, (ii) aid economic evaluation and policy decision-making and (iii) highlight gaps in the primary research knowledge base are discussed. Lastly examples are selected from outside mental health to show how systematic reviews have a potential to be explicitly used in economic and health policy evaluation. RESULTS: Systematic reviews produce the best estimates of clinical efficacy, which can form an important component of economic evaluation. Importantly, serious methodological flaws and areas of uncertainty in the primary research literature are identified within an explicit framework. Summary indices of clinical effectiveness can be produced, but it is difficult to produce such summary indices of cost effectiveness by pooling economic data from primary studies. Modelling is commonly used in economic and policy evaluation. Here, systematic reviews can provide the best estimates of effectiveness and, importantly, highlight areas of uncertainty that can be used in "sensitivity analysis". DISCUSSION: Systematic reviews are an important recent methodological advance, the potential for which has only begun to be realized in mental health. This use of systematic reviews is probably most advanced in producing critical summaries of clinical effectiveness data. Systematic reviews cannot produce valid and believable conclusions when the primary research literature is of poor quality. An important function of systematic reviews will be in highlighting this poor quality research which is of little use in mental health decision making. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH PROVISION: Health care provision should be both clinically and cost effective. Systematic reviews are a key component in ensuring that this goal is achieved. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICIES: Systematic reviews have potential to inform health policy. Examples presented show that health policy is often made without due consideration of the research evidence. Systematic reviews can provide robust and believable answers, which can help inform rational decision-making. Importantly, systematic reviews can highlight the need for important primary research and can inform the design of this research such that it provides answers that will help in forming healthcare policy. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Systematic reviews should precede costly (and often unnecessary) primary research. Many areas of health policy and practice have yet to be evaluated using systematic review methodology. Methods for the summarization of economic data are methodologically complex and deserve further research

Latent Subgroup Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Through a Semiparametric Accelerated Failure Time Mixture Model

PubMed Central

Altstein, L.; Li, G.

2012-01-01

Summary This paper studies a semiparametric accelerated failure time mixture model for estimation of a biological treatment effect on a latent subgroup of interest with a time-to-event outcome in randomized clinical trials. Latency is induced because membership is observable in one arm of the trial and unidentified in the other. This method is useful in randomized clinical trials with all-or-none noncompliance when patients in the control arm have no access to active treatment and in, for example, oncology trials when a biopsy used to identify the latent subgroup is performed only on subjects randomized to active treatment. We derive a computational method to estimate model parameters by iterating between an expectation step and a weighted Buckley-James optimization step. The bootstrap method is used for variance estimation, and the performance of our method is corroborated in simulation. We illustrate our method through an analysis of a multicenter selective lymphadenectomy trial for melanoma. PMID:23383608

Microwave Power Transmission System Studies. Volume 1: Executive Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, O. E.; Brown, W. C.; Edwards, A.; Meltz, G.; Haley, J. T.; Howell, J. M.; Nathan, A.

1975-01-01

A study of microwave power generation, transmission, reception and control was conducted as a part of a program to demonstrate the feasibility of power transmission from geosynchronous orbit. A summary is presented of results concerning design approaches, estimated costs (ROM), critical technology, associated ground and orbital test programs with emphasis on dc to rf conversion, transmitting antenna, phase control, mechanical systems, flight operations, ground power receiving-rectifying antenna with systems analysis, and evaluation. Recommendations for early further in-depth studies complementing the technology program are included.

Size-Class Effect Contributes to Tree Species Assembly through Influencing Dispersal in Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Hu, Yue-Hua; Kitching, Roger L.; Lan, Guo-Yu; Zhang, Jiao-Lin; Sha, Li-Qing; Cao, Min

2014-01-01

We have investigated the processes of community assembly using size classes of trees. Specifically our work examined (1) whether point process models incorporating an effect of size-class produce more realistic summary outcomes than do models without this effect; (2) which of three selected models incorporating, respectively environmental effects, dispersal and the joint-effect of both of these, is most useful in explaining species-area relationships (SARs) and point dispersion patterns. For this evaluation we used tree species data from the 50-ha forest dynamics plot in Barro Colorado Island, Panama and the comparable 20 ha plot at Bubeng, Southwest China. Our results demonstrated that incorporating an size-class effect dramatically improved the SAR estimation at both the plots when the dispersal only model was used. The joint effect model produced similar improvement but only for the 50-ha plot in Panama. The point patterns results were not improved by incorporation of size-class effects using any of the three models. Our results indicate that dispersal is likely to be a key process determining both SARs and point patterns. The environment-only model and joint-effects model were effective at the species level and the community level, respectively. We conclude that it is critical to use multiple summary characteristics when modelling spatial patterns at the species and community levels if a comprehensive understanding of the ecological processes that shape species’ distributions is sought; without this results may have inherent biases. By influencing dispersal, the effect of size-class contributes to species assembly and enhances our understanding of species coexistence. PMID:25251538

Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Mortality in HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

OʼNeill, Tyler J; Nguemo, Joseph D; Tynan, Anne-Marie; Burchell, Ann N; Antoniou, Tony

2017-08-01

As people with HIV live longer, the numbers of colorectal cancer cases are expected to increase. We sought to compare the colorectal cancer incidence and cause-specific mortality among people living with and without HIV. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched 5 electronic databases up to June 28, 2016, for primary studies reporting standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), standardized mortality ratios (SMRs)/hazard ratios or data sufficient for estimating these summary measures. We performed a random effects pooled analysis to estimate SIR and SMR of colorectal cancer in HIV. Of 8110 articles, we included 27 studies from North America (n = 18), Europe (n = 7), the Pacific region (n = 4), and South America (n = 1). Overall, 1660 cases of colorectal cancer and colon cancer (excluding rectal cancer) occurred among 1,696,070 persons with HIV. In pooled analysis, we found no summary risk of malignancy among those with HIV relative to an uninfected population (SIR 1.00; 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.22; I = 89.2%). Colorectal cancer-specific mortality was higher among people with HIV but did not reach statistical significance (SMR 2.09; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 4.40; I = 85.0%). Rates of colorectal cancer are similar between people with and without HIV. Existing screening guidelines are likely adequate for people with HIV.

Hypertension and the risk of endometrial cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies.

PubMed

Aune, Dagfinn; Sen, Abhijit; Vatten, Lars J

2017-04-07

A history of hypertension has been associated with increased risk of endometrial cancer in several studies, but the results have not been consistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies to clarify the association between hypertension and endometrial cancer risk. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to 27 th of February 2016. Prospective and case-control studies which reported adjusted relative risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals of endometrial cancer associated with a hypertension diagnosis were included. Summary relative risks were estimated using a random effects model. Nineteen case-control studies and 6 cohort studies were included. The summary RR was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.41-1.85, I 2  = 86%) for all studies, 1.73 (95% CI: 1.45-2.06, I 2  = 89%) for case-control studies and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.12-1.56, I 2  = 47%) for cohort studies. The association between hypertension and endometrial cancer was weaker, but still significant, among studies with adjustment for smoking, BMI, oral contraceptive use, and parity, compared to studies without such adjustment. This meta-analysis suggest an increased risk of endometrial cancer among patients with hypertension, however, further studies with more comprehensive adjustments for confounders are warranted to clarify the association.

Red and processed meat intake and risk of breast cancer: a meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Guo, Jingyu; Wei, Wei; Zhan, Lixing

2015-05-01

Epidemiological studies regarding the association between red and processed meat intake and the risk of breast cancer have yielded inconsistent results. Therefore, we conducted an updated and comprehensive meta-analysis which included 14 prospective studies to evaluate the association of red and processed meat intake with breast cancer risk. Relevant prospective cohort studies were identified by searching PubMed through October 31, 2014, and by reviewing the reference lists of retrieved articles. Study-specific relative risk (RR) estimates were pooled using a random-effects model. Fourteen prospective studies on red meat (involving 31,552 cases) and 12 prospective studies on processed meat were included in the meta-analysis. The summary RRs (95 % CI) of breast cancer for the highest versus the lowest categories were 1.10 (1.02, 1.19) for red meat, and 1.08 (1.01, 1.15) for processed meat. The estimated summary RRs (95 % CI) were 1.11 (1.05, 1.16) for an increase of 120 g/day of red meat, and 1.09 (1.03, 1.16) for an increase of 50 g/day of processed meat. Our findings indicate that increased intake of red and processed meat is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Further research with well-designed cohort or interventional studies is needed to confirm the association.

Optimal Doppler centroid estimation for SAR data from a quasi-homogeneous source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, M. Y.

1986-01-01

This correspondence briefly describes two Doppler centroid estimation (DCE) algorithms, provides a performance summary for these algorithms, and presents the experimental results. These algorithms include that of Li et al. (1985) and a newly developed one that is optimized for quasi-homogeneous sources. The performance enhancement achieved by the optimal DCE algorithm is clearly demonstrated by the experimental results.

WIC Eligibles and Coverage--1994 To 2007: Estimates of the Population of Women, Infants, and Children Eligible for WIC Benefits. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Agriculture, 2009

2009-01-01

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides food, nutrition education, breastfeeding support, and health care and social service referrals to nutritionally at-risk low-income pregnant women, new mothers, infants, and children through age 4. This report offers updated estimates of the population that…

A Summary--The Economics of Carpeting and Resilient Flooring. An Evaluation and Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parks, George M.

Of use to those concerned with the economics of flooring selection and maintenance, this comparison may prove useful as an estimating guide in the preparation of cost estimates for any flooring area where economics is a factor in the choice of materials. All costs attributed to carpet or resilient flooring have been obtained either by survey or…

A model of forest floor carbon mass for United States forest types

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2002-01-01

Includes a large set of published values of forest floor mass and develop large-scale estimates of carbon mass according to region and forest type. Estimates of average forest floor carbon mass per hectare of forest applied to a 1997 summary forest inventory, sum to 4.5 Gt carbon stored in forests of the 48 contiguous United States.

Military Construction and Family Housing Program. Fiscal Year (FY) 2001 Budget Estimates

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-02-01

Department of the Air Force Military Construction and Family Housing Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2001 Budget Estimates Justification Data...Department of the Air Force Military Construction and Military Family Housing Program Summary Fiscal Year 2001 Appropriation Authorization Request... FISCAL YEAR 2001 (DOLLARS IN THOUSANDS) STATE/COUNTRY INSTALLATION TITLE APPROP REQUEST AUTH REQUEST PAGE INSIDE THE U.S. ALABAMA

Summary of Analysis of Sources of Forecasting Errors in BP 1500 Requirements Estimating Process and Description of Compensating Methodology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-25

the Directorate of Programs (AFLC/ XRP ), and 11-4 * the Directorate of Logistics Plans and Programs, Aircraft/Missiles Program Division of the Air Staff...OWRM). * The P-18 Exhibit/Budget Estimate Submission (BES), a document developed by AFLC/LOR, is reviewed by AFLC/ XRP , and is presented to HQ USAF

Methods for Estimating Environmental Effects and Constraints on NexGen: High Density Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Augustine, S.; Ermatinger, C.; Graham, M.; Thompson, T.

2010-01-01

This document provides a summary of the current methods developed by Metron Aviation for the estimate of environmental effects and constraints on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This body of work incorporates many of the key elements necessary to achieve such an estimate. Each section contains the background and motivation for the technical elements of the work, a description of the methods used, and possible next steps. The current methods described in this document were selected in an attempt to provide a good balance between accuracy and fairly rapid turn around times to best advance Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) System Modeling and Analysis Division (SMAD) objectives while also supporting the needs of the JPDO Environmental Working Group (EWG). In particular this document describes methods applied to support the High Density (HD) Case Study performed during the spring of 2008. A reference day (in 2006) is modeled to describe current system capabilities while the future demand is applied to multiple alternatives to analyze system performance. The major variables in the alternatives are operational/procedural capabilities for airport, terminal, and en route airspace along with projected improvements to airframe, engine and navigational equipment.

A Semiparametric Approach to Simultaneous Covariance Estimation for Bivariate Sparse Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Das, Kiranmoy; Daniels, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Summary Estimation of the covariance structure for irregular sparse longitudinal data has been studied by many authors in recent years but typically using fully parametric specifications. In addition, when data are collected from several groups over time, it is known that assuming the same or completely different covariance matrices over groups can lead to loss of efficiency and/or bias. Nonparametric approaches have been proposed for estimating the covariance matrix for regular univariate longitudinal data by sharing information across the groups under study. For the irregular case, with longitudinal measurements that are bivariate or multivariate, modeling becomes more difficult. In this article, to model bivariate sparse longitudinal data from several groups, we propose a flexible covariance structure via a novel matrix stick-breaking process for the residual covariance structure and a Dirichlet process mixture of normals for the random effects. Simulation studies are performed to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed approach over more traditional approaches. We also analyze a subset of Framingham Heart Study data to examine how the blood pressure trajectories and covariance structures differ for the patients from different BMI groups (high, medium and low) at baseline. PMID:24400941

Radioactive liquid wastes discharged to ground in the 200 Areas during 1976

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirabella, J.E.

An overall summary is presented giving the radioactive liquid wastes discharged to ground during 1976 and since startup (for both total and decayed depositions) within the Production and Waste Management Division control zone (200 Area plateau). Overall summaries are also presented for 200 East Area and for 200 West Area. The data contain an estimate of the radioactivity discharged to individual ponds, cribs and specific retention sites within the Production and Waste Management Division during 1976 and from startup through December 31, 1976; an estimate of the decayed activities from startup through 1976; the location and reference drawings of eachmore » disposal site; and the usage dates of each disposal site. The estimates for the radioactivity discharged and for decayed activities dicharged from startup through December 31, 1976 are based upon Item 4 of the Bibliography. The volume of liquid discharged to the ponds also includes major nonradioactive streams. The wastes discharged during 1976 to each active disposal site are detailed on a month-to-month basis, along with the monthly maximum concentration and average concentration data. An estimate of the radioactivity discharged to each active site along with the remaining decayed activities is given.« less

A Multifaceted Intervention to Improve the Quality of Care of Children in District Hospitals in Kenya: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Barasa, Edwine W.; Ayieko, Philip; Cleary, Susan; English, Mike

2012-01-01

Background To improve care for children in district hospitals in Kenya, a multifaceted approach employing guidelines, training, supervision, feedback, and facilitation was developed, for brevity called the Emergency Triage and Treatment Plus (ETAT+) strategy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the ETAT+ strategy, in Kenyan hospitals. Further, we estimate the costs of scaling up the intervention to Kenya nationally and potential cost effectiveness at scale. Methods and Findings Our cost-effectiveness analysis from the provider's perspective used data from a previously reported cluster randomized trial comparing the full ETAT+ strategy (n = 4 hospitals) with a partial intervention (n = 4 hospitals). Effectiveness was measured using 14 process measures that capture improvements in quality of care; their average was used as a summary measure of quality. Economic costs of the development and implementation of the intervention were determined (2009 US$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were defined as the incremental cost per percentage improvement in (average) quality of care. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess uncertainty. The cost per child admission was US$50.74 (95% CI 49.26–67.06) in intervention hospitals compared to US$31.1 (95% CI 30.67–47.18) in control hospitals. Each percentage improvement in average quality of care cost an additional US$0.79 (95% CI 0.19–2.31) per admitted child. The estimated annual cost of nationally scaling up the full intervention was US$3.6 million, approximately 0.6% of the annual child health budget in Kenya. A “what-if” analysis assuming conservative reductions in mortality suggests the incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by scaling up would vary between US$39.8 and US$398.3. Conclusion Improving quality of care at scale nationally with the full ETAT+ strategy may be affordable for low income countries such as Kenya. Resultant plausible reductions in hospital mortality suggest the intervention could be cost-effective when compared to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of other priority child health interventions. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22719233

Summary and evaluation of hydraulic property data available for the Hanford Site upper basalt confined aquifer system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spane, F.A. Jr.; Vermeul, V.R.

Pacific Northwest Laboratory, as part of the Hanford Site Ground-Water Surveillance Project, examines the potential for offsite migration of contamination within the upper basalt confined aquifer system. For the past 40 years, hydrologic testing of the upper basalt confined aquifer has been conducted by a number of Hanford Site programs. Hydraulic property estimates are important for evaluating aquifer flow characteristics (i.e., ground-water flow patterns, flow velocity, transport travel time). Presented are the first comprehensive Hanford Site-wide summary of hydraulic properties for the upper basalt confined aquifer system (i.e., the upper Saddle Mountains Basalt). Available hydrologic test data were reevaluated usingmore » recently developed diagnostic test analysis methods. A comparison of calculated transmissivity estimates indicates that, for most test results, a general correspondence within a factor of two between reanalysis and previously reported test values was obtained. For a majority of the tests, previously reported values are greater than reanalysis estimates. This overestimation is attributed to a number of factors, including, in many cases, a misapplication of nonleaky confined aquifer analysis methods in previous analysis reports to tests that exhibit leaky confined aquifer response behavior. Results of the test analyses indicate a similar range for transmissivity values for the various hydro-geologic units making up the upper basalt confined aquifer. Approximately 90% of the calculated transmissivity values for upper basalt confined aquifer hydrogeologic units occur within the range of 10{sup 0} to 10{sup 2} m{sup 2}/d, with 65% of the calculated estimate values occurring between 10{sup 1} to 10{sup 2} m{sup 2}d. These summary findings are consistent with the general range of values previously reported for basalt interflow contact zones and sedimentary interbeds within the Saddle Mountains Basalt.« less

Evaluating Principal Surrogate Markers in Vaccine Trials in the Presence of Multiphase Sampling

PubMed Central

Huang, Ying

2017-01-01

Summary This paper focuses on the evaluation of vaccine-induced immune responses as principal surrogate markers for predicting a given vaccine’s effect on the clinical endpoint of interest. To address the problem of missing potential outcomes under the principal surrogate framework, we can utilize baseline predictors of the immune biomarker(s) or vaccinate uninfected placebo recipients at the end of the trial and measure their immune biomarkers. Examples of good baseline predictors are baseline immune responses when subjects enrolled in the trial have been previously exposed to the same antigen, as in our motivating application of the Zostavax Efficacy and Safety Trial (ZEST). However, laboratory assays of these baseline predictors are expensive and therefore their subsampling among participants is commonly performed. In this paper we develop a methodology for estimating principal surrogate values in the presence of baseline predictor subsampling. Under a multiphase sampling framework, we propose a semiparametric pseudo-score estimator based on conditional likelihood and also develop several alternative semiparametric pseudo-score or estimated likelihood estimators. We derive corresponding asymptotic theories and analytic variance formulas for these estimators. Through extensive numeric studies, we demonstrate good finite sample performance of these estimators and the efficiency advantage of the proposed pseudo-score estimator in various sampling schemes. We illustrate the application of our proposed estimators using data from an immune biomarker study nested within the ZEST trial. PMID:28653408

Comparing Treatment Policies with Assistance from the Structural Nested Mean Model

PubMed Central

Lu, Xi; Lynch, Kevin G.; Oslin, David W.; Murphy, Susan

2015-01-01

Summary Treatment policies, also known as dynamic treatment regimes, are sequences of decision rules that link the observed patient history with treatment recommendations. Multiple, plausible, treatment policies are frequently constructed by researchers using expert opinion, theories and reviews of the literature. Often these different policies represent competing approaches to managing an illness. Here we develop an “assisted estimator” that can be used to compare the mean outcome of competing treatment policies. The term “assisted” refers to the fact estimators from the Structural Nested Mean Model, a parametric model for the causal effect of treatment at each time point, are used in the process of estimating the mean outcome. This work is motivated by our work on comparing the mean outcome of two competing treatment policies using data from the ExTENd study in alcohol dependence. PMID:26363892

Relation of phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors and malignant melanoma: a meta-analysis and systematic review.

PubMed

Wang, Jie; Shen, Yigen; Wang, Jiaoni; Xue, Yangjing; Liao, Lianming; Thapa, Saroj; Ji, Kangting

2017-07-11

Data on the association between using PDE5 inhibitors and malignant melanoma are conflicting. To estimate the relation of using PDE5 inhibitors with risk of malignant melanoma, Medline (Ovid) and Embase (Ovid) databases were searched up to February 2017, and a random effects model was used to calculate the summary risk estimates. Five observational studies were included. Five studies reports encompassed a total of 15,979 melanoma cases occurring among 1, 188,414 participants. The pooled multivariable-adjusted RR of melanoma in patients with using PDE5 inhibitors was 1.12 (95% CI: 1.03-1.21, I2 = 0.48). Findings from this systematic review support that PDE5 inhibitor use is associated with increased risk of melanoma in ED patients, the result remains inclusive and warrants further study in the future.

The impact of composite AUC estimates on the prediction of systemic exposure in toxicology experiments.

PubMed

Sahota, Tarjinder; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-06-01

Current toxicity protocols relate measures of systemic exposure (i.e. AUC, Cmax) as obtained by non-compartmental analysis to observed toxicity. A complicating factor in this practice is the potential bias in the estimates defining safe drug exposure. Moreover, it prevents the assessment of variability. The objective of the current investigation was therefore (a) to demonstrate the feasibility of applying nonlinear mixed effects modelling for the evaluation of toxicokinetics and (b) to assess the bias and accuracy in summary measures of systemic exposure for each method. Here, simulation scenarios were evaluated, which mimic toxicology protocols in rodents. To ensure differences in pharmacokinetic properties are accounted for, hypothetical drugs with varying disposition properties were considered. Data analysis was performed using non-compartmental methods and nonlinear mixed effects modelling. Exposure levels were expressed as area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC), peak concentrations (Cmax) and time above a predefined threshold (TAT). Results were then compared with the reference values to assess the bias and precision of parameter estimates. Higher accuracy and precision were observed for model-based estimates (i.e. AUC, Cmax and TAT), irrespective of group or treatment duration, as compared with non-compartmental analysis. Despite the focus of guidelines on establishing safety thresholds for the evaluation of new molecules in humans, current methods neglect uncertainty, lack of precision and bias in parameter estimates. The use of nonlinear mixed effects modelling for the analysis of toxicokinetics provides insight into variability and should be considered for predicting safe exposure in humans.

Chronic urinary tract infection and bladder carcinoma risk: a meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies.

PubMed

Akhtar, Saeed; Al-Shammari, Ahmad; Al-Abkal, Jarrah

2018-02-05

This meta-analysis of published case-control and cohort studies sought to quantify the magnitude and direction of association between chronic UTI (defined as the infection of the urinary tract that either does not respond to treatment or keeps recurring) and risk of bladder carcinoma (BCa) (i.e., including mainly urothelial carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma or adenocarcinoma). A literature search was conducted using Medline, Embase, Ovid, Web of Science, Science Direct and Cochrane Library, which was supplemented with manual search of reference lists of the identified articles. Case-control and cohort studies examining UTI as a predictor of BCa risk published through June 2016 were eligible. Using random-effects models, odds ratios (OR) or relative risks (RR) from eligible studies were combined to synthesize summary effect estimates. The included studies were assessed for methodological quality and potential publication bias. Heterogeneity by study characteristics was examined by sub-group and meta-regression analyses. Eighteen case-control and three cohort studies published between 1963 and 2016 were eligible. Random-effects models showed that UTI was significantly associated with an increased BCa risk both in case-control studies (summary OR RE  = 2.33; 95% CI 1.86, 2.92) and cohort studies (summary RR RE  = 2.88; 95% CI 1.20, 6.89). The observed relationship of UTI with an increased BCa risk was independent of the study characteristics considered. No significant publication bias was detected. Chronic UTI was significantly and independently associated with an increased BCa risk. However, due to the presence of high between-study heterogeneity and inconsistent patterns of adjusted confounding effects, more data are needed to clarify the role of chronic UTI in causation of BCa and if established, prompt and effective treatment of UTI may minimize a substantial proportion of BCa risk.

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women.

PubMed

Cohen, Joel E; Kravdal, Øystein; Keilman, Nico

2011-07-19

In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level.

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joel E.; Kravdal, Øystein; Keilman, Nico

2011-01-01

In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level. PMID:21730138

A mid-latitude ozone model for the US standard atmosphere, 1975 (summary)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krueger, A. J.; Minzner, R. A.

1974-01-01

A mid-latitude, Northern-Hemisphere model of the daytime ozone distribution in the troposphere, stratosphere, and lower mesosphere was constructed. Data from rocket soundings in the latitude range 45 deg N + or - 15 deg, results of balloon soundings at altitudes from 41 to 47 deg N, and latitude gradients from satellite ozone observations were combined to produce estimates of the annual mean ozone concentration and its variability at heights to 72 km for an effective latitude of 45 deg N. The model is a revision, for heights above 26 km, of the tentative Mid-Latitude Ozone Model.

Definition of avionics concepts for a heavy lift cargo vehicle, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

A cost effective, multiuser simulation, test, and demonstration facility to support the development of avionics systems for future space vehicles is defined. The technology needs and requirements of future Heavy Lift Cargo Vehicles (HLCVs) are analyzed and serve as the basis for sizing of the avionics facility although the lab is not limited in use to support of HLCVs. Volume 2 is the technical volume and provides the results of the vehicle avionics trade studies, the avionics lab objectives, the lab's functional requirements and design, physical facility considerations, and a summary cost estimate.

The effect of Haemophilus influenzae type b and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on childhood pneumonia incidence, severe morbidity and mortality.

PubMed

Theodoratou, Evropi; Johnson, Sue; Jhass, Arnoupe; Madhi, Shabir A; Clark, Andrew; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Bhopal, Sunil; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry

2010-04-01

With the aim of populating the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) with parameters of effectiveness of existing interventions, we conducted a systematic review of the literature assessing the effect of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and pneumococcal (PC) conjugate vaccines on incidence, severe morbidity and mortality from childhood pneumonia. We summarized cluster randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) and case-control studies of Hib conjugate vaccines and RCTs of 9- and 11-valent PC conjugate vaccines conducted in developing countries across outcome measures using standard meta-analysis methods. We used a set of standardized rules developed for the purpose of populating the LiST tool with required parameters to promote comparability across reviews of interventions against the major causes of childhood mortality. The estimates could be adjusted further to account for factors such as PC vaccine serotype content, PC serotype distribution and human immunodeficiency virus prevalence but this was not included as part of the LiST model approach. The available evidence from published data points to a summary effect of the Hib conjugate vaccine on clinical pneumonia of 4%, on clinical severe pneumonia of 6% and on radiologically confirmed pneumonia of 18%. Respective effectiveness estimates for PC vaccines (all valent) on clinical pneumonia is 7%, clinical severe pneumonia is 7% and radiologically confirmed pneumonia is 26%. The findings indicated that radiologically confirmed pneumonia, as a severe morbidity proxy for mortality, provided better estimates for the LiST model of effect of interventions on mortality reduction than did other outcomes evaluated. The LiST model will use this to estimate the pneumonia mortality reduction which might be observed when scaling up Hib and PC conjugate vaccination in the context of an overall package of child health interventions.

Variation in the iodine concentrations of foods: considerations for dietary assessment1234

PubMed Central

Carriquiry, Alicia L; Spungen, Judith H; Murphy, Suzanne P; Pehrsson, Pamela R; Dwyer, Johanna T; Juan, WenYen; Wirtz, Mark S

2016-01-01

Background: Food-composition tables typically give measured nutrient concentrations in foods as a single summary value, often the mean, without providing information as to the shape of the distribution. Objective: Our objective was to explore how the statistical approach chosen to describe the iodine concentrations of foods affects the proportion of the population identified as having either insufficient or excessive iodine intakes. Design: We used food intake data reported by the 2009−2010 NHANES and measured iodine concentrations of Total Diet Study (TDS) foods from 4 US regions sampled in 2004–2011. We created 4 data sets, each by using a different summary statistic (median, mean, and 10th and 90th percentiles), to represent the iodine concentration distribution of each TDS food. We estimated the iodine concentration distribution of each food consumed by NHANES participants as the 4 iodine concentration summary statistics of a similar TDS food and used these, along with NHANES food intake data, to develop 4 estimates of each participant’s iodine intake on each survey day. Using the 4 estimates in turn, we calculated 4 usual iodine intakes for each sex- and age-specific subgroup. We then compared these to guideline values and developed 4 estimates of the proportions of each subgroup with deficient and excessive usual iodine intakes. Results: In general, the distribution of iodine intakes was poorly characterized when food iodine concentrations were expressed as mean values. In addition, mean values predicted lower prevalences of iodine deficiency than did median values. For example, in women aged 19–50 y, the estimated prevalence of iodine deficiency was 25% when based on median food iodine concentrations but only 5.8% when based on mean values. Conclusion: For nutrients such as iodine with highly variable concentrations in important food sources, we recommend that food-composition tables provide useful variability information, including the mean, SD, and median. PMID:27534633

Variation in the iodine concentrations of foods: considerations for dietary assessment.

PubMed

Carriquiry, Alicia L; Spungen, Judith H; Murphy, Suzanne P; Pehrsson, Pamela R; Dwyer, Johanna T; Juan, WenYen; Wirtz, Mark S

2016-09-01

Food-composition tables typically give measured nutrient concentrations in foods as a single summary value, often the mean, without providing information as to the shape of the distribution. Our objective was to explore how the statistical approach chosen to describe the iodine concentrations of foods affects the proportion of the population identified as having either insufficient or excessive iodine intakes. We used food intake data reported by the 2009-2010 NHANES and measured iodine concentrations of Total Diet Study (TDS) foods from 4 US regions sampled in 2004-2011. We created 4 data sets, each by using a different summary statistic (median, mean, and 10th and 90th percentiles), to represent the iodine concentration distribution of each TDS food. We estimated the iodine concentration distribution of each food consumed by NHANES participants as the 4 iodine concentration summary statistics of a similar TDS food and used these, along with NHANES food intake data, to develop 4 estimates of each participant's iodine intake on each survey day. Using the 4 estimates in turn, we calculated 4 usual iodine intakes for each sex- and age-specific subgroup. We then compared these to guideline values and developed 4 estimates of the proportions of each subgroup with deficient and excessive usual iodine intakes. In general, the distribution of iodine intakes was poorly characterized when food iodine concentrations were expressed as mean values. In addition, mean values predicted lower prevalences of iodine deficiency than did median values. For example, in women aged 19-50 y, the estimated prevalence of iodine deficiency was 25% when based on median food iodine concentrations but only 5.8% when based on mean values. For nutrients such as iodine with highly variable concentrations in important food sources, we recommend that food-composition tables provide useful variability information, including the mean, SD, and median. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Searching for answers to clinical questions using google versus evidence-based summary resources: a randomized controlled crossover study.

PubMed

Kim, Sarang; Noveck, Helaine; Galt, James; Hogshire, Lauren; Willett, Laura; O'Rourke, Kerry

2014-06-01

To compare the speed and accuracy of answering clinical questions using Google versus summary resources. In 2011 and 2012, 48 internal medicine interns from two classes at Rutgers University Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, who had been trained to use three evidence-based summary resources, performed four-minute computer searches to answer 10 clinical questions. Half were randomized to initiate searches for answers to questions 1 to 5 using Google; the other half initiated searches using a summary resource. They then crossed over and used the other resource for questions 6 to 10. They documented the time spent searching and the resource where the answer was found. Time to correct response and percentage of correct responses were compared between groups using t test and general estimating equations. Of 480 questions administered, interns found answers for 393 (82%). Interns initiating searches in Google used a wider variety of resources than those starting with summary resources. No significant difference was found in mean time to correct response (138.5 seconds for Google versus 136.1 seconds for summary resource; P = .72). Mean correct response rate was 58.4% for Google versus 61.5% for summary resource (mean difference -3.1%; 95% CI -10.3% to 4.2%; P = .40). The authors found no significant differences in speed or accuracy between searches initiated using Google versus summary resources. Although summary resources are considered to provide the highest quality of evidence, improvements to allow for better speed and accuracy are needed.

Interferon-based anti-viral therapy for hepatitis C virus infection after renal transplantation: an updated meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wei, Fang; Liu, Junying; Liu, Fen; Hu, Huaidong; Ren, Hong; Hu, Peng

2014-01-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is highly prevalent in renal transplant (RT) recipients. Currently, interferon-based (IFN-based) antiviral therapies are the standard approach to control HCV infection. In a post-transplantation setting, however, IFN-based therapies appear to have limited efficacy and their use remains controversial. The present study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of IFN-based therapies for HCV infection post RT. We searched Pubmed, Embase, Web of Knowledge, and The Cochrane Library (1997-2013) for clinical trials in which transplant patients were given Interferon (IFN), pegylated interferon (PEG), interferon plus ribavirin (IFN-RIB), or pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (PEG-RIB). The Sustained Virological Response (SVR) and/or drop-out rates were the primary outcomes. Summary estimates were calculated using the random-effects model of DerSimonian and Laird, with heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis. We identified 12 clinical trials (140 patients in total). The summary estimate for SVR rate, drop-out rate and graft rejection rate was 26.6% (95%CI, 15.0-38.1%), 21.1% (95% CI, 10.9-31.2%) and 4% (95%CI: 0.8%-7.1%), respectively. The overall SVR rate in PEG-based and standard IFN-based therapy was 40.6% (24/59) and 20.9% (17/81), respectively. The most frequent side-effect requiring discontinuation of treatment was graft dysfunction (14 cases, 45.1%). Meta-regression analysis showed the covariates included contribute to the heterogeneity in the SVR logit rate, but not in the drop-out logit rate. The sensitivity analyses by the random model yielded very similar results to the fixed-effects model. IFN-based therapy for HCV infection post RT has poor efficacy and limited safety. PEG-based therapy is a more effective approach for treating HCV infection post-RT than standard IFN-based therapy. Future research is required to develop novel strategies to improve therapeutic efficacy and tolerability, and reduce the liver-related morbidity and mortality in this important patient population.

Lateral deflection contribution to settlement estimates : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-01

The Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) occasionally constructs : embankments and retaining walls over compressible materials using staged construction. : Staged construction is a technique used to build an embankment or retaining wall in...

Louisiana ITS business plan : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-03-01

The objectives are defined under: 1. Development of the plan, which identifies the preferred program of projects and policy initiatives and outlines the purpose, requirements, responsibilities, estimated cost, and implementation schedule for each pla...

A threshold-free summary index of prediction accuracy for censored time to event data.

PubMed

Yuan, Yan; Zhou, Qian M; Li, Bingying; Cai, Hengrui; Chow, Eric J; Armstrong, Gregory T

2018-05-10

Prediction performance of a risk scoring system needs to be carefully assessed before its adoption in clinical practice. Clinical preventive care often uses risk scores to screen asymptomatic population. The primary clinical interest is to predict the risk of having an event by a prespecified future time t 0 . Accuracy measures such as positive predictive values have been recommended for evaluating the predictive performance. However, for commonly used continuous or ordinal risk score systems, these measures require a subjective cutoff threshold value that dichotomizes the risk scores. The need for a cutoff value created barriers for practitioners and researchers. In this paper, we propose a threshold-free summary index of positive predictive values that accommodates time-dependent event status and competing risks. We develop a nonparametric estimator and provide an inference procedure for comparing this summary measure between 2 risk scores for censored time to event data. We conduct a simulation study to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation and inference procedures. Lastly, we illustrate the use of this measure on a real data example, comparing 2 risk score systems for predicting heart failure in childhood cancer survivors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating prevalence of coronary heart disease for small areas using collateral indicators of morbidity.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2010-01-01

Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand). Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence). The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure). A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity.

Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2010-01-01

Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand). Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence). The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure). A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity. PMID:20195439

Estimation of unaltered daily mean streamflow at ungaged streams of New York, excluding Long Island, water years 1961-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gazoorian, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

A graphical user interface, with an integrated spreadsheet summary report, has been developed to estimate and display the daily mean streamflows and statistics and to evaluate different water management or water withdrawal scenarios with the estimated monthly data. This package of regression equations, U.S. Geological Survey streamgage data, and spreadsheet application produces an interactive tool to estimate an unaltered daily streamflow hydrograph and streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in New York. Among other uses, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool can assist water managers with permitting water withdrawals, implementing habitat protection, estimating contaminant loads, or determining the potential affect from chemical spills.

The effect of discontinued use of antimicrobial growth promoters on the risk of therapeutic antibiotic treatment in Danish farrow-to-finish pig farms

PubMed Central

VIGRE, H.; LARSEN, P. B.; ANDREASEN, M.; CHRISTENSEN, J.; JORSAL, S. E.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY This study estimated the effect of discontinued use of antimicrobial growth promoters (duAGPs) on the risk of antibiotic treatment for diarrhoea, arthritis, pneumonia, unthriving and miscellaneous disorders in Danish pig farms. The estimation was done in a case-crossover study comparing: (1) the proportion of days per farm where treatment was performed (PDT) and (2) the proportion of pigs treated per day per farm at days where treatment was performed (PPT) before and after duAGPs at 68 farrow-to-finish farms. The farms were selected using a two-stage (veterinarian/farm) convenience sampling. On average, during the first year after duAGPs there was a significant increase in the risk of antibiotic treatment for diarrhoea (PDT: OR 2·5, 95% CI 1·7–3·8; PPT: OR 1·6, 95% CI 1·1–2·2). However, the effect varied among farms – some farms experienced substantial problems, while others experienced few problems after duAGPs. No effect was identified for the risk of treatment for other diseases. PMID:17335634

Complement factor H Y402H variant and risk of age-related macular degeneration in Asians: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kondo, Naoshi; Bessho, Hiroaki; Honda, Shigeru; Negi, Akira

2011-02-01

To investigate whether the Y402H variant in the complement factor H gene is associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Asian populations. Meta-analysis of previous publications. Case-control groups of subjects with AMD and controls from 13 association studies. We performed a meta-analysis of the association between Y402H and AMD in Asian populations using data available from 13 case-control studies involving 3973 subjects. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed- and random-effects models. The Q-statistic test was used to assess heterogeneity, and Egger's test was used to evaluate publication bias. Sensitivity analysis, cumulative meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis were also performed. Allele and genotype frequencies of the Y402H variant. The Y402H variant showed a significant summary OR of 1.97 (95% CI, 1.54-2.52; P<0.001; allelic contrast model) per allele. Possession of at least 1 copy of the C allele increased the disease risk by 1.97-fold (95% CI, 1.63-2.39; P<0.001; dominant model) and accounted for 8.8% of the attributable risk of AMD in Asian populations. Sensitivity analysis indicated the robustness of our findings, and evidence of publication bias was not observed in our meta-analysis. Meta-regression analysis indicated no significant effect of baseline study characteristics on the summary effect size. Cumulative meta-analysis revealed that the summary ORs were stable and the 95% CIs narrowed with the accumulation of data over time. Our analysis provides substantial evidence that the Y402H variant is significantly associated with AMD in Asian populations. Our results expand the number of confirmed AMD susceptibility loci for Asians populations, which provide a better understanding of the genetic architecture underlying disease susceptibility and may advance the potential for preclinical prediction in future genetic tests by a combined evaluation of inherited susceptibility with previously established loci. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tier One Performance Screen Initial Operational Test and Evaluation: 2011 Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

OPERATIONAL TEST AND EVALUATION: 2011 ANNUAL REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Research Requirement: In addition to educational, physical , and...34 Table 5.4. Incremental Validity Estimates for the TAPAS and TOPS Composite Scales over the AFQT for Predicting IMT Physical Fitness Criteria by...Validity Estimates for the TAPAS and TOPS Composite Scales over the AFQT for Predicting In-Unit Physical Fitness Criteria by Education Tier

Testicular cancer in twins: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Neale, R E; Carrière, P; Murphy, M F G; Baade, P D

2008-01-15

In a meta-analysis of testicular cancer in twins, twins had a 30% increased risk (estimate 1.31, 95% CI 1.1-1.6), providing indirect support for the hypothesis that in utero hormone variations influence risk of testicular cancer. The summary-estimate for dizygotic twins was 1.3 (1.0-1.7) and for monozygotic or same sex twins 1.4 (1.2-1.8).

Arkansas, 2009 forest inventory and analysis factsheet

Treesearch

James F. Rosson

2011-01-01

The summary includes estimates of forest land area (table 1), ownership (table 2), forest-type groups (table 3), volume (tables 4 and 5), biomass (tables 6 and 7), and pine plantation area (table 8) along with maps of Arkansas’ survey units (fig. 1), percent forest by county (fig. 2), and distribution of pine plantations (fig. 3). The estimates are presented by survey...

The October 1973 space shuttle traffic model, revision 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Traffic model data for the space shuttle for calendar years 1980 through 1991 are presented along with some supporting and summary data. This model was developed from the 1973 NASA Payload Model, dated October 1973, and the NASA estimate of the 1973 Non-NASA/Non-DoD Payload Model. The estimates for the DoD flights included are based on the 1971 DoD Mission Model.

Recent results of nonlinear estimators applied to hereditary systems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, J. R.; Roland, V. R.; Wells, W. R.

1972-01-01

An application of the extended Kalman filter to delayed systems to estimate the state and time delay is presented. Two nonlinear estimators are discussed and the results compared with those of the Kalman filter. For all the filters considered, the hereditary system was treated with the delay in the pure form and by using Pade approximations of the delay. A summary of the convergence properties of the filters studied is given. The results indicate that the linear filter applied to the delayed system performs inadequately while the nonlinear filters provide reasonable estimates of both the state and the parameters.

Estimating the discharge for ordinary high water levels in Kansas : [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-09-01

The water resource design community in Kansas, including the Kansas Department : of Transportation (KDOT), is required to obtain appropriate permits for construction : projects. Projects that involve stream modification, including drainage structures...

Robust best linear estimator for Cox regression with instrumental variables in whole cohort and surrogates with additive measurement error in calibration sample

PubMed Central

Wang, Ching-Yun; Song, Xiao

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Biomedical researchers are often interested in estimating the effect of an environmental exposure in relation to a chronic disease endpoint. However, the exposure variable of interest may be measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies an additive measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. The subset in which the surrogate variables are available is called a calibration sample. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we consider the situation when there is an instrumental variable available for all study subjects. An instrumental variable is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable, and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric method for Cox regression using the observed data from the whole cohort. The nonparametric estimator is the best linear combination of a nonparametric correction estimator from the calibration sample and the difference of the naive estimators from the calibration sample and the whole cohort. The asymptotic distribution is derived, and the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined via intensive simulation studies. The methods are applied to the Nutritional Biomarkers Study of the Women’s Health Initiative. PMID:27546625

Cocaine Dependence Treatment Data: Methods for Measurement Error Problems With Predictors Derived From Stationary Stochastic Processes

PubMed Central

Guan, Yongtao; Li, Yehua; Sinha, Rajita

2011-01-01

In a cocaine dependence treatment study, we use linear and nonlinear regression models to model posttreatment cocaine craving scores and first cocaine relapse time. A subset of the covariates are summary statistics derived from baseline daily cocaine use trajectories, such as baseline cocaine use frequency and average daily use amount. These summary statistics are subject to estimation error and can therefore cause biased estimators for the regression coefficients. Unlike classical measurement error problems, the error we encounter here is heteroscedastic with an unknown distribution, and there are no replicates for the error-prone variables or instrumental variables. We propose two robust methods to correct for the bias: a computationally efficient method-of-moments-based method for linear regression models and a subsampling extrapolation method that is generally applicable to both linear and nonlinear regression models. Simulations and an application to the cocaine dependence treatment data are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods. Asymptotic theory and variance estimation for the proposed subsampling extrapolation method and some additional simulation results are described in the online supplementary material. PMID:21984854

Meta-analyses of Adverse Effects Data Derived from Randomised Controlled Trials as Compared to Observational Studies: Methodological Overview

PubMed Central

Golder, Su; Loke, Yoon K.; Bland, Martin

2011-01-01

Background There is considerable debate as to the relative merits of using randomised controlled trial (RCT) data as opposed to observational data in systematic reviews of adverse effects. This meta-analysis of meta-analyses aimed to assess the level of agreement or disagreement in the estimates of harm derived from meta-analysis of RCTs as compared to meta-analysis of observational studies. Methods and Findings Searches were carried out in ten databases in addition to reference checking, contacting experts, citation searches, and hand-searching key journals, conference proceedings, and Web sites. Studies were included where a pooled relative measure of an adverse effect (odds ratio or risk ratio) from RCTs could be directly compared, using the ratio of odds ratios, with the pooled estimate for the same adverse effect arising from observational studies. Nineteen studies, yielding 58 meta-analyses, were identified for inclusion. The pooled ratio of odds ratios of RCTs compared to observational studies was estimated to be 1.03 (95% confidence interval 0.93–1.15). There was less discrepancy with larger studies. The symmetric funnel plot suggests that there is no consistent difference between risk estimates from meta-analysis of RCT data and those from meta-analysis of observational studies. In almost all instances, the estimates of harm from meta-analyses of the different study designs had 95% confidence intervals that overlapped (54/58, 93%). In terms of statistical significance, in nearly two-thirds (37/58, 64%), the results agreed (both studies showing a significant increase or significant decrease or both showing no significant difference). In only one meta-analysis about one adverse effect was there opposing statistical significance. Conclusions Empirical evidence from this overview indicates that there is no difference on average in the risk estimate of adverse effects of an intervention derived from meta-analyses of RCTs and meta-analyses of observational studies. This suggests that systematic reviews of adverse effects should not be restricted to specific study types. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21559325

Physical activity and risk of pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Behrens, Gundula; Jochem, Carmen; Schmid, Daniela; Keimling, Marlen; Ricci, Cristian; Leitzmann, Michael F

2015-04-01

Physical activity may prevent pancreatic cancer by regulating body weight and decreasing insulin resistance, DNA damage, and chronic inflammation. Previous meta-analyses found inconsistent evidence for a protective effect of physical activity on pancreatic cancer but those studies did not investigate whether the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer varies by smoking status, body mass index (BMI), or level of consistency of physical activity over time. To address these issues, we conducted an updated meta-analysis following the PRISMA guidelines among 30 distinct studies with a total of 10,501 pancreatic cancer cases. Random effects meta-analysis of cohort studies revealed a weak, statistically significant reduction in pancreatic cancer risk for high versus low levels of physical activity (relative risk (RR) 0.93, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.88-0.98). By comparison, case-control studies yielded a stronger, statistically significant risk reduction (RR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.66-0.94; p-difference by study design = 0.07). When focusing on cohort studies, physical activity summary risk estimates appeared to be more pronounced for consistent physical activity over time (RR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.76-0.97) than for recent past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.90-1.01) or distant past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.79-1.15, p-difference by timing in life of physical activity = 0.36). Physical activity summary risk estimates did not differ by smoking status or BMI. In conclusion, physical activity is not strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk, and the relation is not modified by smoking status or BMI level. While overall findings were weak, we did find some suggestion of potential pancreatic cancer risk reduction with consistent physical activity over time.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: a proposal of new reporting standards in statistical analysis

PubMed Central

Bang, Heejung; Zhao, Hongwei

2014-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a method for evaluating the outcomes and costs of competing strategies designed to improve health, and has been applied to a variety of different scientific fields. Yet, there are inherent complexities in cost estimation and CEA from statistical perspectives (e.g., skewness, bi-dimensionality, and censoring). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio that represents the additional cost per one unit of outcome gained by a new strategy has served as the most widely accepted methodology in the CEA. In this article, we call for expanded perspectives and reporting standards reflecting a more comprehensive analysis that can elucidate different aspects of available data. Specifically, we propose that mean and median-based incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and average cost-effectiveness ratios be reported together, along with relevant summary and inferential statistics as complementary measures for informed decision making. PMID:24605979

Peer Review Documents Related to the Evaluation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BMDS is one of the Agency's premier tools for estimating risk assessments, therefore the validity and reliability of its statistical models are of paramount importance. This page provides links to peer review and expert summaries of the BMDS application and its models as they were developed and eventually released documenting the rigorous review process taken to provide the best science tools available for statistical modeling. This page provides links to peer reviews and expert summaries of the BMDS applications and its models as they were developed and eventually released.

Northwest Energy Policy Project. Energy conservation policy evaluation: study module IA. Final report. Volume I. Summary report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berney, R.E.; Butcher, W.R.; Carter, L.F.

1977-01-01

This summary report identifies potential energy conservation measures and evaluates measures and policy options not likely to be suitable for adoption in the Pacific Northwest. Potential and incentives for energy conservation are specifically identified in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors and through urban design. Selection of preferable policies and estimation of response to policies are next discussed. Finally, a computer impact model for calculating energy savings and changes in the levels of residuals resulting from energy conservation activities is discussed. (MCW)

Effect of modest pay-for-performance financial incentive on time-to-discharge summary dictation among medical residents.

PubMed

Wolk, Adam; Wang, Erwin; Horak, Bernard; Cloonan, Patricia; Adams, Michael; Moore, Eileen; Jaipaul, Chitra Komal; Brown, Gabrielle; Dasgupta, Dabanjan; Deluca, Danielle; Grossman, Mila

2013-01-01

Evaluate the effect of a modest financial incentive on time-to-discharge summary dictation among medicine residents. Pay-for-performance incentives are used in a number of health care settings. Studies are lacking on their use with medical residents and other trainees. Timely completion of discharge summaries is necessary for effective follow-up after hospitalization, and residents perform the majority of discharge summary dictations in academic medical centers. Medicine residents with the lowest average discharge-to-dictation time during their 1-month inpatient medicine ward rotation were rewarded with a $50 gift card. Discharge data were captured using an autopopulating electronic database. The average discharge-to-dictation time was reduced from 7.44 to 1.84 days, representing a 75.3% decrease. Almost 90% of discharge summary dictations were performed on the day of discharge. A modest financial incentive resulted in a marked improvement in the time-to-discharge summary dictation by medicine residents. Pay-for-performance programs may be an effective strategy for improving the quality and efficiency of patient care in academic medical centers.

Anchoring quartet-based phylogenetic distances and applications to species tree reconstruction.

PubMed

Sayyari, Erfan; Mirarab, Siavash

2016-11-11

Inferring species trees from gene trees using the coalescent-based summary methods has been the subject of much attention, yet new scalable and accurate methods are needed. We introduce DISTIQUE, a new statistically consistent summary method for inferring species trees from gene trees under the coalescent model. We generalize our results to arbitrary phylogenetic inference problems; we show that two arbitrarily chosen leaves, called anchors, can be used to estimate relative distances between all other pairs of leaves by inferring relevant quartet trees. This results in a family of distance-based tree inference methods, with running times ranging between quadratic to quartic in the number of leaves. We show in simulated studies that DISTIQUE has comparable accuracy to leading coalescent-based summary methods and reduced running times.

Diagnostic accuracy of level 3 portable sleep tests versus level 1 polysomnography for sleep-disordered breathing: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

El Shayeb, Mohamed; Topfer, Leigh-Ann; Stafinski, Tania; Pawluk, Lawrence; Menon, Devidas

2014-01-01

Background: Greater awareness of sleep-disordered breathing and rising obesity rates have fueled demand for sleep studies. Sleep testing using level 3 portable devices may expedite diagnosis and reduce the costs associated with level 1 in-laboratory polysomnography. We sought to assess the diagnostic accuracy of level 3 testing compared with level 1 testing and to identify the appropriate patient population for each test. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of comparative studies of level 3 versus level 1 sleep tests in adults with suspected sleep-disordered breathing. We searched 3 research databases and grey literature sources for studies that reported on diagnostic accuracy parameters or disease management after diagnosis. Two reviewers screened the search results, selected potentially relevant studies and extracted data. We used a bivariate mixed-effects binary regression model to estimate summary diagnostic accuracy parameters. Results: We included 59 studies involving a total of 5026 evaluable patients (mostly patients suspected of having obstructive sleep apnea). Of these, 19 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was high, ranging between 0.85 and 0.99 across different levels of disease severity. Summary sensitivity ranged between 0.79 and 0.97, and summary specificity ranged between 0.60 and 0.93 across different apnea–hypopnea cut-offs. We saw no significant difference in the clinical management parameters between patients who underwent either test to receive their diagnosis. Interpretation: Level 3 portable devices showed good diagnostic performance compared with level 1 sleep tests in adult patients with a high pretest probability of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea and no unstable comorbidities. For patients suspected of having other types of sleep-disordered breathing or sleep disorders not related to breathing, level 1 testing remains the reference standard. PMID:24218531

Personal use of hair dyes and the risk of bladder cancer: results of a meta-analysis.

PubMed Central

Huncharek, Michael; Kupelnick, Bruce

2005-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the methodology of observational studies that explored an association between personal use of hair dye products and the risk of bladder cancer. METHODS: Data were pooled from epidemiological studies using a general variance-based meta-analytic method that employed confidence intervals. The outcome of interest was a summary relative risk (RRs) reflecting the risk of bladder cancer development associated with use of hair dye products vs. non-use. Sensitivity analyses were performed to explain any observed statistical heterogeneity and to explore the influence of specific study characteristics of the summary estimate of effect. RESULTS: Initially combining homogenous data from six case-control and one cohort study yielded a non-significant RR of 1.01 (0.92, 1.11), suggesting no association between hair dye use and bladder cancer development. Sensitivity analyses examining the influence of hair dye type, color, and study design on this suspected association showed that uncontrolled confounding and design limitations contributed to a spurious non-significant summary RR. The sensitivity analyses yielded statistically significant RRs ranging from 1.22 (1.11, 1.51) to 1.50 (1.30, 1.98), indicating that personal use of hair dye products increases bladder cancer risk by 22% to 50% vs. non-use. CONCLUSION: The available epidemiological data suggest an association between personal use of hair dye products and increased risk of bladder cancer. PMID:15736329

Improved Methodology for Benefit Estimation of Preservation Projects

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-04-01

This research report presents an improved process for evaluating the benefits and economic tradeoffs associated with a variety of highway preservation projects. It includes a summary of results from a comprehensive phone survey concerning the use and...

Centralized processing of contact-handled TRU waste feasibility analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1986-12-01

This report presents work for the feasibility study of central processing of contact-handled TRU waste. Discussion of scenarios, transportation options, summary of cost estimates, and institutional issues are a few of the subjects discussed. (JDL)

How-To-Do-It: Measuring Vegetation Biomass and Production.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Don; Weaver, T.

1988-01-01

Describes a lab exercise used to demonstrate the measurement of biomass in a three layered forest. Discusses sampling, estimation methods, and the analysis of results. Presents an example of a summary sheet for this activity. (CW)

Roadway Traffic Data Collection from Mobile Platforms, Technical Summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-28

This project empirically investigates the traffic flow estimations from different types of data collected from two types of mobile platforms transit buses in service operations and a van driven to emulate bus coverage that repeatedly traverse...

Mineral commodity summaries 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ober, Joyce A.

2017-01-31

This report is the earliest Government publication to furnish estimates covering 2016 nonfuel mineral industry data. Data sheets contain information on the domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, and 5-year salient statistics for more than 90 individual minerals and materials.

Research on the Ocular Effects of Laser Radiation. Executive Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

safety standards and identify- ing the need for additional safety criteria. 7he Execulive Summ~ary is przsanted in seven parts dealing with the effects...laser safety standards and in identifying the need for additional safety criteria. The Executive Summary is divided into seven parts, dealing with...to coherent and noncoherent light flashes at flashblinding intensities, only limited studies have been made of the functional effects of lesion

CARA Status and Upcoming Enhancements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Megan

2017-01-01

CAS 8.4.3 was deployed to operations on 13 June 2017. Discrepancies Between 3D Pc Estimates and advanced Monte Carlo Equinoctial-Sampling Pc Estimates discovered and discussed at 23 May 2017 Useras (Registered Trademark) Forum. The patch created the Reporting Pc, which is the greater value between the calculated 2D and 3D Pc values This changed the Pc reported in the CDMs to the Reporting Pc This changed the Pc reported on the Summary Report to the Reporting Pc This changed the Pc reported on Maneuver Screening Analysis (MSA) Report to the Reporting Pc. Both the 2D and 3D Pc added to the Summary Report details section The patch also updated the 3D Pc algorithm to eliminate velocity covariance from the Pc calculation This will bring 2D and 3D Pc into close alignment for vast majority of events, particularly for the events in which the 2D/3D discrepancy was found.

Assessing the Impact of Stricter Alcohol Advertising Standards: The Case of Beam Global Spirits

PubMed Central

Ross, Craig S.; Sparks, Alicia; Jernigan, David H.

2015-01-01

Summary Reducing youth exposure to alcohol advertising is a global health priority. In most countries around the world, the alcohol industry is given the opportunity to regulate itself with respect to advertising practices. Generally, the alcohol industry self-regulations are lax, allowing youth to be disproportionately exposed to alcohol advertising. However, Beam Global Spirits and Wine (Beam) voluntarily adopted more restrictive advertising standards in the United States in 2007. This study assessed Beam's compliance with their new standard and estimates its effect on youth exposure and advertising costs. We found that Beam's compliance with its more restrictive standards was imperfect, but never-the-less, we estimated that youth exposure to alcohol advertising was reduced compared to other spirits brands. Beam's more restrictive standards did not increase their advertising costs and therefore other alcohol companies should consider adopting similar standards around the world. PMID:28042284

Daily pan evaporation modelling using a neuro-fuzzy computing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kişi, Özgür

2006-10-01

SummaryEvaporation, as a major component of the hydrologic cycle, is important in water resources development and management. This paper investigates the abilities of neuro-fuzzy (NF) technique to improve the accuracy of daily evaporation estimation. Five different NF models comprising various combinations of daily climatic variables, that is, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, pressure and humidity are developed to evaluate degree of effect of each of these variables on evaporation. A comparison is made between the estimates provided by the NF model and the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The Stephens-Stewart (SS) method is also considered for the comparison. Various statistic measures are used to evaluate the performance of the models. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the NF computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling evaporation process from the available climatic data. The ANN also found to perform better than the SS method.

Database and new models based on a group contribution method to predict the refractive index of ionic liquids.

PubMed

Wang, Xinxin; Lu, Xingmei; Zhou, Qing; Zhao, Yongsheng; Li, Xiaoqian; Zhang, Suojiang

2017-08-02

Refractive index is one of the important physical properties, which is widely used in separation and purification. In this study, the refractive index data of ILs were collected to establish a comprehensive database, which included about 2138 pieces of data from 1996 to 2014. The Group Contribution-Artificial Neural Network (GC-ANN) model and Group Contribution (GC) method were employed to predict the refractive index of ILs at different temperatures from 283.15 K to 368.15 K. Average absolute relative deviations (AARD) of the GC-ANN model and the GC method were 0.179% and 0.628%, respectively. The results showed that a GC-ANN model provided an effective way to estimate the refractive index of ILs, whereas the GC method was simple and extensive. In summary, both of the models were accurate and efficient approaches for estimating refractive indices of ILs.

The West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) in Florida: a summary and analysis of biological, ecological, and administrative problems affecting preservation and restoration of the population. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wray, P.

1978-09-01

The population of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), an endangered species, is estimated at 800-1,000 individuals in peninsular Florida. Observed annual mortality between 1974 and 1977 was 6-8% of the estimated population. Human activities are implicated in much of this mortality. Direct and indirect threats include boat collisions, diver harassment, creation of artificial warm water refuges, vandalism, entanglement in fishing gear, herbicides in food resources, and possible effects of offshore oil exploration. Lack of federal commitment to manatee protection is evidenced by an absence of implementing regulations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act and the Endangered Species Act, absencemore » of a recovery plan for the species, faulty interagency communication, and a lack of law enforcement. Problems are discussed, with recommendations for conservation. (Color illustrations reproduced in black and white)« less

Short-term Effect of Fine Particulate Matter on Children's Hospital Admissions and Emergency Department Visits for Asthma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lim, Hyungryul; Kwon, Ho-Jang; Lim, Ji-Ae; Choi, Jong Hyuk; Ha, Mina; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Choi, Won-Jun

2016-07-01

No children-specified review and meta-analysis paper about the short-term effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma has been published. We calculated more precise pooled effect estimates on this topic and evaluated the variation in effect size according to the differences in study characteristics not considered in previous studies. Two authors each independently searched PubMed and EMBASE for relevant studies in March, 2016. We conducted random effect meta-analyses and mixed-effect meta-regression analyses using retrieved summary effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and some characteristics of selected studies. The Egger's test and funnel plot were used to check publication bias. All analyses were done using R version 3.1.3. We ultimately retrieved 26 time-series and case-crossover design studies about the short-term effect of PM2.5 on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. In the primary meta-analysis, children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma were positively associated with a short-term 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (relative risk, 1.048; 95% CI, 1.028 to 1.067; I2=95.7%). We also found different effect coefficients by region; the value in Asia was estimated to be lower than in North America or Europe. We strengthened the evidence on the short-term effect of PM2.5 on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. Further studies from other regions outside North America and Europe regions are needed for more generalizable evidence.

Testicular cancer in twins: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Neale, R E; Carrière, P; Murphy, M F G; Baade, P D

2007-01-01

In a meta-analysis of testicular cancer in twins, twins had a 30% increased risk (estimate 1.31, 95% CI 1.1–1.6), providing indirect support for the hypothesis that in utero hormone variations influence risk of testicular cancer. The summary-estimate for dizygotic twins was 1.3 (1.0–1.7) and for monozygotic or same sex twins 1.4 (1.2–1.8). PMID:18071360

Allowing for uncertainty due to missing continuous outcome data in pairwise and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mavridis, Dimitris; White, Ian R; Higgins, Julian P T; Cipriani, Andrea; Salanti, Georgia

2015-02-28

Missing outcome data are commonly encountered in randomized controlled trials and hence may need to be addressed in a meta-analysis of multiple trials. A common and simple approach to deal with missing data is to restrict analysis to individuals for whom the outcome was obtained (complete case analysis). However, estimated treatment effects from complete case analyses are potentially biased if informative missing data are ignored. We develop methods for estimating meta-analytic summary treatment effects for continuous outcomes in the presence of missing data for some of the individuals within the trials. We build on a method previously developed for binary outcomes, which quantifies the degree of departure from a missing at random assumption via the informative missingness odds ratio. Our new model quantifies the degree of departure from missing at random using either an informative missingness difference of means or an informative missingness ratio of means, both of which relate the mean value of the missing outcome data to that of the observed data. We propose estimating the treatment effects, adjusted for informative missingness, and their standard errors by a Taylor series approximation and by a Monte Carlo method. We apply the methodology to examples of both pairwise and network meta-analysis with multi-arm trials. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries

PubMed Central

Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

2014-01-01

Problem Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. Context To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. Action In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. Lessons learnt It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners. PMID:25320676

Counting glomeruli and podocytes: rationale and methodologies

PubMed Central

Puelles, Victor G.; Bertram, John F.

2015-01-01

Purpose of review There is currently much interest in the numbers of both glomeruli and podocytes. This interest stems from greater understanding of the effects of suboptimal fetal events on nephron endowment, the associations between low nephron number and chronic cardiovascular and kidney disease in adults, and the emergence of the podocyte depletion hypothesis. Recent findings Obtaining accurate and precise estimates of glomerular and podocyte number has proven surprisingly difficult. When whole kidneys or large tissue samples are available, design-based stereological methods are considered gold-standard because they are based on principles that negate systematic bias. However, these methods are often tedious and time-consuming, and oftentimes inapplicable when dealing with small samples such as biopsies. Therefore, novel methods suitable for small tissue samples, and innovative approaches to facilitate high through put measurements, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to estimate glomerular number and flow cytometry to estimate podocyte number, have recently been described. Summary This review describes current gold-standard methods for estimating glomerular and podocyte number, as well as methods developed in the past 3 years. We are now better placed than ever before to accurately and precisely estimate glomerular and podocyte number, and to examine relationships between these measurements and kidney health and disease. PMID:25887899

Summary of Survival Data from Juvenile Coho Salmon in the Klamath River, Northern California, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Juhnke, Steven; Hansel, Hal C.

2009-01-01

A study to estimate the effects of Iron Gate Dam discharge on ESA-listed juvenile coho salmon during their seaward migration to the ocean was begun in 2005. Estimates of survival through various reaches of river downstream from the dam were completed in 2006, 2007, and 2008 as part of this process. This report describes the estimates of survival during 2008, and is a complement to similar reports from 2006 and 2007. In each year, a series of models were evaluated to determine apparent survival and recapture probabilities of radio-tagged fish in several river reaches between Iron Gate Hatchery at river kilometer 309 and a site at river kilometer 33. These results indicate most trends in survival among reaches were similar to those from 2006 and 2007, but the magnitudes of the estimated survivals were lower in 2008. The differences in survivals from Iron Gate Hatchery to river kilometer 33 in 2006 (0.653 SE 0.039), 2007 (0.497 SE 0.044), and 2008 (0.406 SE 0.032) were caused primarily by differences in survival upstream from the Scott River. This report is intended as a brief description of the survivals estimated from the fish released in 2008 to be used by others interested in the data.

A Simple Method for Evaluating Within Sample Prognostic Balance Achieved by Published Comorbidity Summary Measures.

PubMed

Egleston, Brian L; Uzzo, Robert G; Beck, J Robert; Wong, Yu-Ning

2015-08-01

To demonstrate how a researcher can investigate the appropriateness of a published comorbidity summary measure for use with a given sample. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results linked to Medicare claims data. We examined Kaplan-Meier estimated survival curves for four diseases within strata of a comorbidity summary measure, the Charlson Comorbidity Index. We identified individuals with early-stage kidney cancer diagnosed from 1995 to 2009. We recorded comorbidities present in the year before diagnosis. The use of many comorbidity summary measures is valid under appropriate conditions. One condition is that the relationships of the comorbidities with the outcome of interest in a researcher's own population are comparable to the relationships in a published algorithm's population. The original comorbidity weights from the Charlson Comorbidity Index seemed adequate for three of the diseases in our sample. We found evidence that the Charlson Comorbidity Index might underestimate the impact of one disease in our sample. Examination of survival curves within strata defined by a comorbidity summary measure can be a useful tool for determining whether a published method appropriately accounts for comorbidities. A comorbidity score is only as good as those variables included. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Multiple phenotype association tests using summary statistics in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Liu, Zhonghua; Lin, Xihong

2018-03-01

We study in this article jointly testing the associations of a genetic variant with correlated multiple phenotypes using the summary statistics of individual phenotype analysis from Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWASs). We estimated the between-phenotype correlation matrix using the summary statistics of individual phenotype GWAS analyses, and developed genetic association tests for multiple phenotypes by accounting for between-phenotype correlation without the need to access individual-level data. Since genetic variants often affect multiple phenotypes differently across the genome and the between-phenotype correlation can be arbitrary, we proposed robust and powerful multiple phenotype testing procedures by jointly testing a common mean and a variance component in linear mixed models for summary statistics. We computed the p-values of the proposed tests analytically. This computational advantage makes our methods practically appealing in large-scale GWASs. We performed simulation studies to show that the proposed tests maintained correct type I error rates, and to compare their powers in various settings with the existing methods. We applied the proposed tests to a GWAS Global Lipids Genetics Consortium summary statistics data set and identified additional genetic variants that were missed by the original single-trait analysis. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Department of the Navy Supporting Data for Fiscal Year 1983 Budget Estimates Descriptive Summaries Submitted to Congress February 1982. Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, Navy. Book 3 of 3. Tactical Programs, Intelligence & Communications, Management & Support

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

For these data elements, Initial Milestone 11 values were established as the Flanning Estimate (PE) with the Development Estimate ( DE ) to he based ...development of improved forensic collection techniques for Naval Investigative Agents on ships and overseas bases . As this is a continuing program, the above...overseas bases ), and continue development of improved forensic collection techniques for Naval Investigative Agents on ships and overseas baszs. 4. (U) FY

[Estimation of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba].

PubMed

Gonzalez, G; Herrera, L

1986-01-01

An estimate of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba is presented using the Brass method as adapted by Trussell. "Estimations by urban and rural zones are also performed within the provinces studied, and results are compared with those possible to obtain by continuous statistics. Results obtained show that in the eastern [part] of the country Holguin and Guantanamo are the provinces with highest infantile mortality rates, and the lowest rates correspond to Granma, followed by Santiago de Cuba." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

Space Tug Docking Study. Volume 5: Cost Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The cost methodology, summary cost data, resulting cost estimates by Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), technical characteristics data, program funding schedules and the WBS for the costing are discussed. Cost estimates for two tasks of the study are reported. The first, developed cost estimates for design, development, test and evaluation (DDT&E) and theoretical first unit (TFU) at the component level (Level 7) for all items reported in the data base. Task B developed total subsystem DDT&E costs and funding schedules for the three candidate Rendezvous and Docking Systems: manual, autonomous, and hybrid.

Operation of the yield estimation subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccrary, D. G.; Rogers, J. L.; Hill, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The organization and products of the yield estimation subsystem (YES) are described with particular emphasis on meteorological data acquisition, yield estimation, crop calendars, weekly weather summaries, and project reports. During the three phases of LACIE, YES demonstrated that it is possible to use the flow of global meteorological data and provide valuable information regarding global wheat production. It was able to establish a capability to collect, in a timely manner, detailed weather data from all regions of the world, and to evaluate and convert that data into information appropriate to the project's needs.

System technology analysis of aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicles: Moderate lift/drag (0.75-1.5). Volume 3: Cost estimates and work breakdown structure/dictionary, phase 1 and 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Technology payoffs of representative ground based (Phase 1) and space based (Phase 2) mid lift/drag ratio aeroassisted orbit transfer vehicles (AOTV) were assessed and prioritized. A narrative summary of the cost estimates and work breakdown structure/dictionary for both study phases is presented. Costs were estimated using the Grumman Space Programs Algorithm for Cost Estimating (SPACE) computer program and results are given for four AOTV configurations. The work breakdown structure follows the standard of the joint government/industry Space Systems Cost Analysis Group (SSCAG). A table is provided which shows cost estimates for each work breakdown structure element.

Escitalopram is Associated with Reductions in Pain Severity and Pain Interference in Opioid Dependent Patients with Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Tsui, Judith I.; Herman, Debra S.; Kettavong, Malyna; Anderson, Bradley J.; Stein, Michael D.

2011-01-01

Pain is common among opioid dependent patients, yet pharmacologic strategies are limited. The aim of this study was to explore whether escitalopram, a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, was associated with reductions in pain. The study used longitudinal data from a randomized, controlled trial that evaluated the effects of escitalopram on treatment retention in patients with depressive symptoms who were initiating buprenorphine/naloxone for treatment of opioid dependence. Participants were randomized to take escitalopram 10mg or placebo daily. Changes in pain severity, pain interference and depression were assessed at 1, 2 and 3 months visits using the Visual Analog Scale, Brief Pain Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory II, respectively. Fixed-effects estimator for panel regression models were used to assess the effects of intervention on changes in outcomes over time. Additional models were estimated to explore whether the intervention effect was mediated by within-person changes in depression. In this sample of 147 adults, we found that participants randomized to escitalopram had significantly larger reductions on both pain severity (b = −14.34, t = −2.66, p < .01) and pain interference (b = −1.20, t = −2.23, p < .05) between baseline and follow-up. After adjusting for within-subject changes in depression, the estimated effects of escitalopram on pain severity and pain interference were virtually identical to the unadjusted effects. In summary, this study of opioid-dependent patients with depressive symptoms found that treatment with escitalopram was associated with clinically meaningful reductions in pain severity and pain interference during the first three months of therapy. PMID:21924552

Visual tool for estimating the fractal dimension of images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossu, I. V.; Besliu, C.; Rusu, M. V.; Jipa, Al.; Bordeianu, C. C.; Felea, D.

2009-10-01

This work presents a new Visual Basic 6.0 application for estimating the fractal dimension of images, based on an optimized version of the box-counting algorithm. Following the attempt to separate the real information from "noise", we considered also the family of all band-pass filters with the same band-width (specified as parameter). The fractal dimension can be thus represented as a function of the pixel color code. The program was used for the study of paintings cracks, as an additional tool which can help the critic to decide if an artistic work is original or not. Program summaryProgram title: Fractal Analysis v01 Catalogue identifier: AEEG_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEEG_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 29 690 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 4 967 319 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: MS Visual Basic 6.0 Computer: PC Operating system: MS Windows 98 or later RAM: 30M Classification: 14 Nature of problem: Estimating the fractal dimension of images. Solution method: Optimized implementation of the box-counting algorithm. Use of a band-pass filter for separating the real information from "noise". User friendly graphical interface. Restrictions: Although various file-types can be used, the application was mainly conceived for the 8-bit grayscale, windows bitmap file format. Running time: In a first approximation, the algorithm is linear.

Global Association of Cold Spells and Adverse Health Effects: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Guo, Yuming; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

2015-01-01

Background There is substantial evidence that mortality increases in low temperatures. Less is known about the role of prolonged cold periods denoted as cold spells. Objective We conducted the first systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the evidence on the adverse health effects of cold spells in varying climates. Data sources and extraction Four databases (Ovid Medline, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched for all years and languages available. “Cold spell” was defined as an event below a temperature threshold lasting for a minimum duration of 2 days. Of 1,527 identified articles, 26 satisfied our eligibility criteria for the systematic review, and 9 were eligible for meta-analyses. The articles were grouped by the three main study questions into Overall-effect Group, Added-effect Group, and Temperature-change-effect Group. Data synthesis Based on random-effects models in the meta-analyses, cold spells were associated with increased mortality from all or all nonaccidental causes (summary rate ratio = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.17 based on 9 estimates from five studies), cardiovascular diseases (1.11; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.19; 12 estimates from eight studies), and respiratory diseases (1.21; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.51; 8 estimates from four studies). Estimated associations were stronger for people ≥ 65 years of age (1.06; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.12) than for people 0–64 years of age (1.01; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03). Study-specific effect estimates from a limited number of studies suggested an increased morbidity related to cold spells, but it was not possible to quantitatively summarize the evidence. Conclusions Cold spells are associated with increased mortality rates in populations around the world. The body of evidence suggests that cold spells also have other adverse health effects. There was substantial heterogeneity among the studies, which should be taken into account in the interpretation of the results. Citation Ryti NR, Guo Y, Jaakkola JJ. 2016. Global association of cold spells and adverse health effects: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:12–22; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408104 PMID:25978526

Global Association of Cold Spells and Adverse Health Effects: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Ryti, Niilo R I; Guo, Yuming; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2016-01-01

There is substantial evidence that mortality increases in low temperatures. Less is known about the role of prolonged cold periods denoted as cold spells. We conducted the first systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the evidence on the adverse health effects of cold spells in varying climates. Four databases (Ovid Medline, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched for all years and languages available. "Cold spell" was defined as an event below a temperature threshold lasting for a minimum duration of 2 days. Of 1,527 identified articles, 26 satisfied our eligibility criteria for the systematic review, and 9 were eligible for meta-analyses. The articles were grouped by the three main study questions into Overall-effect Group, Added-effect Group, and Temperature-change-effect Group. Based on random-effects models in the meta-analyses, cold spells were associated with increased mortality from all or all nonaccidental causes (summary rate ratio = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.17 based on 9 estimates from five studies), cardiovascular diseases (1.11; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.19; 12 estimates from eight studies), and respiratory diseases (1.21; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.51; 8 estimates from four studies). Estimated associations were stronger for people ≥ 65 years of age (1.06; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.12) than for people 0-64 years of age (1.01; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03). Study-specific effect estimates from a limited number of studies suggested an increased morbidity related to cold spells, but it was not possible to quantitatively summarize the evidence. Cold spells are associated with increased mortality rates in populations around the world. The body of evidence suggests that cold spells also have other adverse health effects. There was substantial heterogeneity among the studies, which should be taken into account in the interpretation of the results. Ryti NR, Guo Y, Jaakkola JJ. 2016. Global association of cold spells and adverse health effects: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:12-22; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408104.

Is the kidney disease quality of life-36 (KDQOL-36) a valid instrument for Chinese dialysis patients?

PubMed

Chow, Susan Ka Yee; Tam, Bonnie Mee Ling

2014-12-15

The aim of this study is to determine the validity and reliability of the Cantonese Chinese version of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-36 (KDQOL-36™) questionnaire. The scale has been translated into Cantonese Chinese, but has not been tested among the Cantonese-speaking populations. A total of 110 dialysis patients and 122 renal transplant patients were recruited. The data for the KDQOL-36™ were extracted from the KDQOL-Short Form. The criterion validity and scale equivalence were examined using the KDQOL-Short Form scores as the gold standard. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale was used to identify the correlations between depression, anxiety, and quality of life to establish the convergent validity. Discriminant validity was examined using the transplant patients to compare the quality of life of dialysis patients. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient and test-retest were used for estimating reliability. There were very strong positive correlations for the physical and mental component summary between the KDQOL-36™ and KDQOL-Short Form. Despite the strong correlations, the effect size was 0.6 and 0.13 for the physical composite summary and mental composite summary score, respectively. Most of the subscales demonstrated significant moderate correlations with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, from -0.265 to -0.516. The discriminant validity was confirmed with a significant difference between the dialysis and transplant group patients. A high intraclass correlation of >0.98 was demonstrated in the test-retest. The Cantonese Chinese KDQOL-36™ was reliable. Further testing will be required to determine its validity for the physical health summary scale.

Estimation of a Preference-Based Summary Score for the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System: The PROMIS®-Preference (PROPr) Scoring System.

PubMed

Dewitt, Barry; Feeny, David; Fischhoff, Baruch; Cella, David; Hays, Ron D; Hess, Rachel; Pilkonis, Paul A; Revicki, Dennis A; Roberts, Mark S; Tsevat, Joel; Yu, Lan; Hanmer, Janel

2018-06-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) preference-based scores are used to assess the health of populations and patients and for cost-effectiveness analyses. The National Institutes of Health Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS ® ) consists of patient-reported outcome measures developed using item response theory. PROMIS is in need of a direct preference-based scoring system for assigning values to health states. To produce societal preference-based scores for 7 PROMIS domains: Cognitive Function-Abilities, Depression, Fatigue, Pain Interference, Physical Function, Sleep Disturbance, and Ability to Participate in Social Roles and Activities. Online survey of a US nationally representative sample ( n = 983). Preferences for PROMIS health states were elicited with the standard gamble to obtain both single-attribute scoring functions for each of the 7 PROMIS domains and a multiplicative multiattribute utility (scoring) function. The 7 single-attribute scoring functions were fit using isotonic regression with linear interpolation. The multiplicative multiattribute summary function estimates utilities for PROMIS multiattribute health states on a scale where 0 is the utility of being dead and 1 the utility of "full health." The lowest possible score is -0.022 (for a state viewed as worse than dead), and the highest possible score is 1. The online survey systematically excludes some subgroups, such as the visually impaired and illiterate. A generic societal preference-based scoring system is now available for all studies using these 7 PROMIS health domains.

Disaster warning system study summary. [cost estimates using NOAA satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leroy, B. F.; Maloy, J. E.; Braley, R. C.; Provencher, C. E.; Schumaker, H. A.; Valgora, M. E.

1977-01-01

A conceptual satellite system to replace or complement NOAA's data collection, internal communications, and public information dissemination systems for the mid-1980's was defined. Program cost and cost sensitivity to variations in communications functions are analyzed.

Benefit cost models to support pavement management decisions : executive summary report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

A critical role of pavement management is to : provide decision makers with estimates of the : required budget level to achieve specific steadystate : network conditions, and to recommend the : best allocation of available budget among : competing ne...

1986 traffic fatalities, preliminary report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-04-01

This report provides a number of preliminary estimate of traffic fatalities and fatal accidents for 1986. Trend data are presented for both the long and short term. Some summary statistics are provided at the State and Regional level. The national es...

Accuracy and generalizability in summaries of affect regulation strategies: comment on Webb, Miles, and Sheeran (2012).

PubMed

Augustine, Adam A; Hemenover, Scott H

2013-05-01

In their examination of the effectiveness of affect regulation strategies, Webb, Miles, and Sheeran (2012) offered the results of a broad meta-analysis of studies on regulatory interventions. Their analysis provides an alternative to our earlier, more focused meta-analysis of the affect regulation literature (Augustine & Hemenover, 2009). Unfortunately, there are a number of errors and omissions in this new meta-analysis that could lead to misconceptions regarding both our previous work and the state of the affect regulation literature. In this comment, we examine the impact of methodological issues, inconsistent inclusion criteria, variance in manipulations, and what we perceive to be a subjective and inconsistent selection of effect sizes on the accuracy and generalizability of Webb and colleagues' estimates of affect regulation strategy effectiveness. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Primary Results of the Patient-Centered Disease Management (PCDM) for Heart Failure Study: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Bekelman, David B; Plomondon, Mary E; Carey, Evan P; Sullivan, Mark D; Nelson, Karin M; Hattler, Brack; McBryde, Connor F; Lehmann, Kenneth G; Gianola, Katherine; Heidenreich, Paul A; Rumsfeld, John S

2015-05-01

Heart failure (HF) has a major effect on patients' health status, including their symptom burden, functional status, and health-related quality of life. To determine the effectiveness of a collaborative care patient-centered disease management (PCDM) intervention to improve the health status of patients with HF. The Patient-Centered Disease Management (PCDM) trial was a multisite randomized clinical trial comparing a collaborative care PCDM intervention with usual care in patients with HF. A population-based sample of 392 patients with an HF diagnosis from 4 Veterans Affairs centers who had a Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) overall summary score of less than 60 (heavy symptom burden and impaired functional status and quality of life) were enrolled between May 2009 and June 2011. The PCDM intervention included collaborative care by a multidisciplinary care team consisting of a nurse coordinator, cardiologist, psychiatrist, and primary care physician; home telemonitoring and patient self-management support; and screening and treatment for comorbid depression. The primary outcome was change in the KCCQ overall summary score at 1 year (a 5-point change is clinically significant). Mortality, hospitalization, and depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire 9) were secondary outcomes. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between patients randomized to the PCDM intervention (n=187) vs usual care (n=197); baseline mean KCCQ overall summary scores were 37.9 vs 36.9 (P=.48). There was significant improvement in the KCCQ overall summary scores in both groups after 1 year (mean change, 13.5 points in each group), with no significant difference between groups (P=.97). The intervention was not associated with greater improvement in the KCCQ overall summary scores when the effect over time was estimated using 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month data (P=.74). Among secondary outcomes, there were significantly fewer deaths at 1 year in the intervention arm (8 of 187 [4.3%]) than in the usual care arm (19 of 197 [9.6%]) (P = .04). Among those who screened positive for depression, there was a greater improvement in the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 scores after 1 year in the intervention arm than in the usual care arm (2.1 points lower, P=.01). There was no significant difference in 1-year hospitalization rates between the intervention arm and the usual care arm (29.4% vs 29.9%, P=.87). This multisite randomized trial of a multifaceted HF PCDM intervention did not demonstrate improved patient health status compared with usual care. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00461513.

Proper joint analysis of summary association statistics requires the adjustment of heterogeneity in SNP coverage pattern.

PubMed

Zhang, Han; Wheeler, William; Song, Lei; Yu, Kai

2017-07-07

As meta-analysis results published by consortia of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) become increasingly available, many association summary statistics-based multi-locus tests have been developed to jointly evaluate multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to reveal novel genetic architectures of various complex traits. The validity of these approaches relies on the accurate estimate of z-score correlations at considered SNPs, which in turn requires knowledge on the set of SNPs assessed by each study participating in the meta-analysis. However, this exact SNP coverage information is usually unavailable from the meta-analysis results published by GWAS consortia. In the absence of the coverage information, researchers typically estimate the z-score correlations by making oversimplified coverage assumptions. We show through real studies that such a practice can generate highly inflated type I errors, and we demonstrate the proper way to incorporate correct coverage information into multi-locus analyses. We advocate that consortia should make SNP coverage information available when posting their meta-analysis results, and that investigators who develop analytic tools for joint analyses based on summary data should pay attention to the variation in SNP coverage and adjust for it appropriately. Published by Oxford University Press 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, Jeff S.

2003-01-01

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Strong motion seismology in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S. K.; Ordaz, M.

1993-02-01

Since 1985, digital accelerographs have been installed along a 500 km segment above the Mexican subduction zone, at some inland sites which form an attenuation line between the Guerrero seismic gap and Mexico City, and in the Valley of Mexico. These networks have recorded a few large earthquakes and many moderate and small earthquakes. Analysis of the data has permitted a significant advance in the understanding of source characteristics, wave propagation and attenuation, and site effects. This, in turn, has permitted reliable estimations of ground motions from future earthquakes. This paper presents a brief summary of some important results which are having a direct bearing on current earthquake engineering practice in Mexico.

Small wind systems application analysis. Executive summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1981-06-01

The potential market for SWECS, or wind machines smaller than 100 kW for five selected applications was estimated. The goals of the study were to aid manufacturers in attaining financing by convincing venture capital investors of the potential of SWECS and to aid government planners in allocating R and D expenditures that will effectively advance SWECS commercialization. The five applications were selected through an initial screening and priority-ranking analysis. The year of analysis was 1985, but all dollar amounts, such as fuel costs, are expressed in 1980 dollars. The five SWECS applications investigated were farm residences, non-farm residences rural electric cooperatives, feed grinders, and remote communities.

Sequential causal inference: Application to randomized trials of adaptive treatment strategies

PubMed Central

Dawson, Ree; Lavori, Philip W.

2009-01-01

SUMMARY Clinical trials that randomize subjects to decision algorithms, which adapt treatments over time according to individual response, have gained considerable interest as investigators seek designs that directly inform clinical decision making. We consider designs in which subjects are randomized sequentially at decision points, among adaptive treatment options under evaluation. We present a sequential method to estimate the comparative effects of the randomized adaptive treatments, which are formalized as adaptive treatment strategies. Our causal estimators are derived using Bayesian predictive inference. We use analytical and empirical calculations to compare the predictive estimators to (i) the ‘standard’ approach that allocates the sequentially obtained data to separate strategy-specific groups as would arise from randomizing subjects at baseline; (ii) the semi-parametric approach of marginal mean models that, under appropriate experimental conditions, provides the same sequential estimator of causal differences as the proposed approach. Simulation studies demonstrate that sequential causal inference offers substantial efficiency gains over the standard approach to comparing treatments, because the predictive estimators can take advantage of the monotone structure of shared data among adaptive strategies. We further demonstrate that the semi-parametric asymptotic variances, which are marginal ‘one-step’ estimators, may exhibit significant bias, in contrast to the predictive variances. We show that the conditions under which the sequential method is attractive relative to the other two approaches are those most likely to occur in real studies. PMID:17914714

Nonlinear Decoupling Control With ANFIS-Based Unmodeled Dynamics Compensation for a Class of Complex Industrial Processes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yajun; Chai, Tianyou; Wang, Hong; Wang, Dianhui; Chen, Xinkai

2018-06-01

Complex industrial processes are multivariable and generally exhibit strong coupling among their control loops with heavy nonlinear nature. These make it very difficult to obtain an accurate model. As a result, the conventional and data-driven control methods are difficult to apply. Using a twin-tank level control system as an example, a novel multivariable decoupling control algorithm with adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based unmodeled dynamics (UD) compensation is proposed in this paper for a class of complex industrial processes. At first, a nonlinear multivariable decoupling controller with UD compensation is introduced. Different from the existing methods, the decomposition estimation algorithm using ANFIS is employed to estimate the UD, and the desired estimating and decoupling control effects are achieved. Second, the proposed method does not require the complicated switching mechanism which has been commonly used in the literature. This significantly simplifies the obtained decoupling algorithm and its realization. Third, based on some new lemmas and theorems, the conditions on the stability and convergence of the closed-loop system are analyzed to show the uniform boundedness of all the variables. This is then followed by the summary on experimental tests on a heavily coupled nonlinear twin-tank system that demonstrates the effectiveness and the practicability of the proposed method.

Fructose toxicity: is the science ready for public health actions?

PubMed Central

Tappy, Luc; Mittendorfer, Bettina

2013-01-01

Summary Purpose of review The assumption that fructose may be “toxic” and involved in the pathogenesis of non communicable diseases such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and even cancer has resulted in the call for public health action, such as introducing taxes on sweetened beverages. This review evaluates the scientific basis for such action. Recent findings Although some studies hint towards some potential adverse effects of excessive fructose consumption especially when combined with excess energy intake, the results from clinical trials do not support a significant detrimental effect of fructose on metabolic health when consumed as part of a weight maintaining diet in amounts consistent with the average estimated fructose consumption in Western countries. However, definitive studies are missing. Summary and conclusion Public health policies to eliminate or limit fructose in the diet should be considered premature. Instead, efforts should be made to promote a healthy life style that includes physical activity and nutritious foods while avoiding intake of excess calories until solid evidence to support action against fructose is available. Public health is almost certainly to benefit more from policies that are aimed at promoting what is known to be good than from policies that are prohibiting what is not (yet) known to be bad. PMID:22617566

Powerful Statistical Inference for Nested Data Using Sufficient Summary Statistics

PubMed Central

Dowding, Irene; Haufe, Stefan

2018-01-01

Hierarchically-organized data arise naturally in many psychology and neuroscience studies. As the standard assumption of independent and identically distributed samples does not hold for such data, two important problems are to accurately estimate group-level effect sizes, and to obtain powerful statistical tests against group-level null hypotheses. A common approach is to summarize subject-level data by a single quantity per subject, which is often the mean or the difference between class means, and treat these as samples in a group-level t-test. This “naive” approach is, however, suboptimal in terms of statistical power, as it ignores information about the intra-subject variance. To address this issue, we review several approaches to deal with nested data, with a focus on methods that are easy to implement. With what we call the sufficient-summary-statistic approach, we highlight a computationally efficient technique that can improve statistical power by taking into account within-subject variances, and we provide step-by-step instructions on how to apply this approach to a number of frequently-used measures of effect size. The properties of the reviewed approaches and the potential benefits over a group-level t-test are quantitatively assessed on simulated data and demonstrated on EEG data from a simulated-driving experiment. PMID:29615885

The effectiveness of evidence summaries on health policymakers and health system managers use of evidence from systematic reviews: a systematic review.

PubMed

Petkovic, Jennifer; Welch, Vivian; Jacob, Maria Helena; Yoganathan, Manosila; Ayala, Ana Patricia; Cunningham, Heather; Tugwell, Peter

2016-12-09

Systematic reviews are important for decision makers. They offer many potential benefits but are often written in technical language, are too long, and do not contain contextual details which make them hard to use for decision-making. There are many organizations that develop and disseminate derivative products, such as evidence summaries, from systematic reviews for different populations or subsets of decision makers. This systematic review aimed to (1) assess the effectiveness of evidence summaries on policymakers' use of the evidence and (2) identify the most effective summary components for increasing policymakers' use of the evidence. We present an overview of the available evidence on systematic review derivative products. We included studies of policymakers at all levels as well as health system managers. We included studies examining any type of "evidence summary," "policy brief," or other products derived from systematic reviews that presented evidence in a summarized form. The primary outcomes were the (1) use of systematic review summaries in decision-making (e.g., self-reported use of the evidence in policymaking and decision-making) and (2) policymakers' understanding, knowledge, and/or beliefs (e.g., changes in knowledge scores about the topic included in the summary). We also assessed perceived relevance, credibility, usefulness, understandability, and desirability (e.g., format) of the summaries. Our database search combined with our gray literature search yielded 10,113 references after removal of duplicates. From these, 54 were reviewed in full text, and we included six studies (reported in seven papers) as well as protocols from two ongoing studies. Two studies assessed the use of evidence summaries in decision-making and found little to no difference in effect. There was also little to no difference in effect for knowledge, understanding or beliefs (four studies), and perceived usefulness or usability (three studies). Summary of findings tables and graded entry summaries were perceived as slightly easier to understand compared to complete systematic reviews. Two studies assessed formatting changes and found that for summary of findings tables, certain elements, such as reporting study event rates and absolute differences, were preferred as well as avoiding the use of footnotes. Evidence summaries are likely easier to understand than complete systematic reviews. However, their ability to increase the use of systematic review evidence in policymaking is unclear. The protocol was published in the journal Systematic Reviews (2015;4:122).

The influence of cooling forearm/hand and gender on estimation of handgrip strength.

PubMed

Cheng, Chih-Chan; Shih, Yuh-Chuan; Tsai, Yue-Jin; Chi, Chia-Fen

2014-01-01

Handgrip strength is essential in manual operations and activities of daily life, but the influence of forearm/hand skin temperature on estimation of handgrip strength is not well documented. Therefore, the present study intended to investigate the effect of local cooling of the forearm/hand on estimation of handgrip strength at various target force levels (TFLs, in percentage of MVC) for both genders. A cold pressor test was used to lower and maintain the hand skin temperature at 14°C for comparison with the uncooled condition. A total of 10 male and 10 female participants were recruited. The results indicated that females had greater absolute estimation deviations. In addition, both genders had greater absolute deviations in the middle range of TFLs. Cooling caused an underestimation of grip strength. Furthermore, a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Statement of relevance: Manipulation with grip strength is essential in daily life and the workplace, so it is important to understand the influence of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. Females and the middle range of TFL had greater deviations. Cooling the forearm/hand tended to cause underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Practitioner Summary: It is important to understand the effect of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. A cold pressor was used to cool the hand. The cooling caused underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Manipulation with grip strength is essential in daily life and the workplace, so it is important to understand the influence of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. Females and the middle range of TFL had greater deviations. Cooling the forearm/hand tended to cause underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. It is important to understand the effect of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. A cold pressor was used to cool the hand. The cooling caused underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force

An Updated Global Picture of Cigarette Smoking Persistence among Adults

PubMed Central

Troost, Jonathan P.; Barondess, David A.; Storr, Carla L.; Wells, J. Elisabeth; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn; Bruffaerts, Ronny; Florescu, Silvia; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Karam, Aimee N.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Lepine, Jean-Pierre; Matschinger, Herbert; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; O'Neill, Siobhan; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Takeshima, Tadashi; Tomov, Toma; Williams, David R.; Anthony, James C.

2012-01-01

Background Cross-national variance in smoking prevalence is relatively well documented. The aim of this study is to estimate levels of smoking persistence across 21 countries with a hypothesized inverse relationship between country income level and smoking persistence. Methods Data from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative were used to estimate cross-national differences in smoking persistence–the proportion of adults who started to smoke and persisted in smoking by the date of the survey. Result There is large variation in smoking persistence from 25% (Nigeria) to 85% (China), with a random-effects meta-analytic summary estimate of 55% with considerable cross-national variation. (Cochran's heterogeneity Q statistic=6,845; p<0.001). Meta-regressions indicated observed differences are not attributable to differences in country income level, age distribution of smokers, or how recent the onset of smoking began within each country. Conclusion While smoking should remain an important public health issue in any country where smokers are present, this report identifies several countries with higher levels of smoking persistence (namely, China and India). PMID:23626929

A review on lithium-ion battery ageing mechanisms and estimations for automotive applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barré, Anthony; Deguilhem, Benjamin; Grolleau, Sébastien; Gérard, Mathias; Suard, Frédéric; Riu, Delphine

2013-11-01

Lithium-ion batteries have become the focus of research interest, thanks to their numerous benefits for vehicle applications. One main limitation of these technologies resides in the battery ageing. The effects of battery ageing limit its performance and occur throughout their whole life, whether the battery is used or not, which is a major drawback on real usage. Furthermore, degradations take place in every condition, but in different proportions as usage and external conditions interact to provoke degradations. The ageing phenomena are highly complicated to characterize due to the factors cross-dependence. This paper reviews various aspects of recent research and developments, from different fields, on lithium-ion battery ageing mechanisms and estimations. In this paper is presented a summary of techniques, models and algorithms used for battery ageing estimation (SOH, RUL), going from a detailed electrochemical approach to statistical methods based on data. In order to present the accuracy of currently used methods, their respective characteristics are discussed. Remaining challenges are deeply detailed, along with a discussion about the ideal method resulting from existing methods.

Reliability and Validity in Hospital Case-Mix Measurement

PubMed Central

Pettengill, Julian; Vertrees, James

1982-01-01

There is widespread interest in the development of a measure of hospital output. This paper describes the problem of measuring the expected cost of the mix of inpatient cases treated in a hospital (hospital case-mix) and a general approach to its solution. The solution is based on a set of homogenous groups of patients, defined by a patient classification system, and a set of estimated relative cost weights corresponding to the patient categories. This approach is applied to develop a summary measure of the expected relative costliness of the mix of Medicare patients treated in 5,576 participating hospitals. The Medicare case-mix index is evaluated by estimating a hospital average cost function. This provides a direct test of the hypothesis that the relationship between Medicare case-mix and Medicare cost per case is proportional. The cost function analysis also provides a means of simulating the effects of classification error on our estimate of this relationship. Our results indicate that this general approach to measuring hospital case-mix provides a valid and robust measure of the expected cost of a hospital's case-mix. PMID:10309909

Product pricing in the Solar Array Manufacturing Industry - An executive summary of SAMICS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, R. G.

1978-01-01

Capabilities, methodology, and a description of input data to the Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards (SAMICS) are presented. SAMICS were developed to provide a standardized procedure and data base for comparing manufacturing processes of Low-cost Solar Array (LSA) subcontractors, guide the setting of research priorities, and assess the progress of LSA toward its hundred-fold cost reduction goal. SAMICS can be used to estimate the manufacturing costs and product prices and determine the impact of inflation, taxes, and interest rates, but it is limited by its ignoring the effects of the market supply and demand and an assumption that all factories operate in a production line mode. The SAMICS methodology defines the industry structure, hypothetical supplier companies, and manufacturing processes and maintains a body of standardized data which is used to compute the final product price. The input data includes the product description, the process characteristics, the equipment cost factors, and production data for the preparation of detailed cost estimates. Activities validating that SAMICS produced realistic price estimates and cost breakdowns are described.

Effect of NET-1 siRNA conjugated sub-micron bubble complex combined with low-frequency ultrasound exposure in gene transfection

PubMed Central

Wu, Bolin; Liang, Xitian; Jing, Hui; Han, Xue; Sun, Yixin; Guo, Cunli; Liu, Ying; Cheng, Wen

2018-01-01

The present study evaluated the effect of NET-1 siRNA-conjugated sub-micron bubble (SMB) complexes combined with low-frequency ultrasound exposure in gene transfection. The NET-1 gene was highly expressed level in SMMC-7721 human hepatocellular carcinoma cell line. The cells were divided into seven groups and treated with different conditions. The groups with or without low-frequency ultrasound exposure, groups of adherent cells, and suspension cells were separated. The NET-1 siRNA-conjugated SMB complexes were made in the laboratory and tested by Zetasizer Nano ZS90 analyzer. Flow cytometry was used to estimate the transfection efficiency and cellular apoptosis. Western blot and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) were used for the estimation of the protein and mRNA expressions, respectively. Transwell analysis determined the migration and invasion capacities of the tumor cells. The results did not show any difference in the transfection efficiency between adherent and suspension cells. However, the NET-1 siRNA-SMB complexes combined with low-frequency ultrasound exposure could enhance the gene transfection effectively. In summary, the NET-1 siRNA-SMB complexes appeared to be promising gene vehicle. PMID:29423111

Folate intake, serum folate levels and esophageal cancer risk: an overall and dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Yan; Guo, Chenyang; Hu, Hongtao; Zheng, Lin; Ma, Junli; Jiang, Li; Zhao, Erjiang; Li, Hailiang

2017-02-07

Previously reported findings on the association between folate intake or serum folate levels and esophageal cancer risk have been inconsistent. This study aims to summarize the evidence regarding these relationships using a dose-response meta-analysis approach. We performed electronic searches of the Pubmed, Medline and Cochrane Library electronic databases to identify studies examining the effect of folate on the risk of esophageal cancer. Ultimately, 19 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Summary odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using a random effects model. A linear regression analysis of the natural logarithm of the OR was carried out to assess the possible dose-response relationship between folate intake and esophageal cancer risk. The pooled ORs for esophageal cancer in the highest vs. lowest levels of dietary folate intake and serum folate were 0.63 (95% CI: 0.56-0.71) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.55-0.92), respectively. The dose-response meta-analysis indicated that a 100 μg/day increment in dietary folate intake reduced the estimate risk of esophageal cancer by 12%. These findings suggest that dietary and serum folate exert a protective effect against esophageal carcinogenesis.

Employment insecurity and employees' health in Denmark.

PubMed

Cottini, Elena; Ghinetti, Paolo

2018-02-01

We use register data for Denmark (IDA) merged with the Danish Work Environment Cohort Survey (1995, 2000, and 2005) to estimate the effect of perceived employment insecurity on perceived health for a sample of Danish employees. We consider two health measures from the SF-36 Health Survey Instrument: a vitality scale for general well-being and a mental health scale. We first analyse a summary measure of employment insecurity. Instrumental variables-fixed effects estimates that use firm workforce changes as a source of exogenous variation show that 1 additional dimension of insecurity causes a shift from the median to the 25th percentile in the mental health scale and to the 30th in that of energy/vitality. It also increases by about 6 percentage points the probability to develop severe mental health problems. Looking at single insecurity dimensions by naïve fixed effects, uncertainty associated with the current job is important for mental health. Employability has a sizeable relationship with health and is the only insecurity dimension that matters for the energy and vitality scale. Danish employees who fear involuntary firm internal mobility experience worse mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Subgrouping and TargetEd Exercise pRogrammes for knee and hip OsteoArthritis (STEER OA): a systematic review update and individual participant data meta-analysis protocol.

PubMed

Holden, Melanie A; Burke, Danielle L; Runhaar, Jos; van Der Windt, Danielle; Riley, Richard D; Dziedzic, Krysia; Legha, Amardeep; Evans, Amy L; Abbott, J Haxby; Baker, Kristin; Brown, Jenny; Bennell, Kim L; Bossen, Daniël; Brosseau, Lucie; Chaipinyo, Kanda; Christensen, Robin; Cochrane, Tom; de Rooij, Mariette; Doherty, Michael; French, Helen P; Hickson, Sheila; Hinman, Rana S; Hopman-Rock, Marijke; Hurley, Michael V; Ingram, Carol; Knoop, Jesper; Krauss, Inga; McCarthy, Chris; Messier, Stephen P; Patrick, Donald L; Sahin, Nilay; Talbot, Laura A; Taylor, Robert; Teirlinck, Carolien H; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Walker, Christine; Foster, Nadine E

2017-12-22

Knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of disability worldwide. Therapeutic exercise is a recommended core treatment for people with knee and hip OA, however, the observed effect sizes for reducing pain and improving physical function are small to moderate. This may be due to insufficient targeting of exercise to subgroups of people who are most likely to respond and/or suboptimal content of exercise programmes. This study aims to identify: (1) subgroups of people with knee and hip OA that do/do not respond to therapeutic exercise and to different types of exercise and (2) mediators of the effect of therapeutic exercise for reducing pain and improving physical function. This will enable optimal targeting and refining the content of future exercise interventions. Systematic review and individual participant data meta-analyses. A previous comprehensive systematic review will be updated to identify randomised controlled trials that compare the effects of therapeutic exercise for people with knee and hip OA on pain and physical function to a non-exercise control. Lead authors of eligible trials will be invited to share individual participant data. Trial-level and participant-level characteristics (for baseline variables and outcomes) of included studies will be summarised. Meta-analyses will use a two-stage approach, where effect estimates are obtained for each trial and then synthesised using a random effects model (to account for heterogeneity). All analyses will be on an intention-to-treat principle and all summary meta-analysis estimates will be reported as standardised mean differences with 95% CI. Research ethical or governance approval is exempt as no new data are being collected and no identifiable participant information will be shared. Findings will be disseminated via national and international conferences, publication in peer-reviewed journals and summaries posted on websites accessed by the public and clinicians. CRD42017054049. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Scoping estimates of the LDEF satellite induced radioactivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, Tony W.; Colborn, B. L.

1990-01-01

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite was recovered after almost six years in space. It was well-instrumented with ionizing radiation dosimeters, including thermoluminescent dosimeters, plastic nuclear track detectors, and a variety of metal foil samples for measuring nuclear activation products. The extensive LDEF radiation measurements provide the type of radiation environments and effects data needed to evaluate and help resolve uncertainties in present radiation models and calculational methods. A calculational program was established to aid in LDEF data interpretation and to utilize LDEF data for assessing the accuracy of current models. A summary of the calculational approach is presented. The purpose of the reported calculations is to obtain a general indication of: (1) the importance of different space radiation sources (trapped, galactic, and albedo protons, and albedo neutrons); (2) the importance of secondary particles; and (3) the spatial dependence of the radiation environments and effects expected within the spacecraft. The calculational method uses the High Energy Transport Code (HETC) to estimate the importance of different sources and secondary particles in terms of fluence, absorbed dose in tissue and silicon, and induced radioactivity as a function of depth in aluminum.

A Note on the Usefulness of the Behavioural Rasch Selection Model for Causal Inference in the Social Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbitt, Matthew P.

2016-11-01

Social scientists are often interested in examining causal relationships where the outcome of interest is represented by an intangible concept, such as an individual's well-being or ability. Estimating causal relationships in this scenario is particularly challenging because the social scientist must rely on measurement models to measure individual's properties or attributes and then address issues related to survey data, such as omitted variables. In this paper, the usefulness of the recently proposed behavioural Rasch selection model is explored using a series of Monte Carlo experiments. The behavioural Rasch selection model is particularly useful for these types of applications because it is capable of estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment effect on an outcome that is represented by an intangible concept using cross-sectional data. Other methodology typically relies of summary measures from measurement models that require additional assumptions, some of which make these approaches less efficient. Recommendations for application of the behavioural Rasch selection model are made based on results from the Monte Carlo experiments.

Nonprobability Web Surveys to Measure Sexual Behaviors and Attitudes in the General Population: A Comparison With a Probability Sample Interview Survey

PubMed Central

Burkill, Sarah; Couper, Mick P; Conrad, Frederick; Clifton, Soazig; Tanton, Clare; Phelps, Andrew; Datta, Jessica; Mercer, Catherine H; Sonnenberg, Pam; Prah, Philip; Mitchell, Kirstin R; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M; Copas, Andrew J

2014-01-01

Background Nonprobability Web surveys using volunteer panels can provide a relatively cheap and quick alternative to traditional health and epidemiological surveys. However, concerns have been raised about their representativeness. Objective The aim was to compare results from different Web panels with a population-based probability sample survey (n=8969 aged 18-44 years) that used computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) for sensitive behaviors, the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3). Methods Natsal-3 questions were included on 4 nonprobability Web panel surveys (n=2000 to 2099), 2 using basic quotas based on age and sex, and 2 using modified quotas based on additional variables related to key estimates. Results for sociodemographic characteristics were compared with external benchmarks and for sexual behaviors and opinions with Natsal-3. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to express differences between the benchmark data and each survey for each variable of interest. A summary measure of survey performance was the average absolute OR across variables. Another summary measure was the number of key estimates for which the survey differed significantly (at the 5% level) from the benchmarks. Results For sociodemographic variables, the Web surveys were less representative of the general population than Natsal-3. For example, for men, the average absolute OR for Natsal-3 was 1.14, whereas for the Web surveys the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.86 to 2.30. For all Web surveys, approximately two-thirds of the key estimates of sexual behaviors were different from Natsal-3 and the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.32 to 1.98. Differences were appreciable even for questions asked by CASI in Natsal-3. No single Web survey performed consistently better than any other did. Modified quotas slightly improved results for men, but not for women. Conclusions Consistent with studies from other countries on less sensitive topics, volunteer Web panels provided appreciably biased estimates. The differences seen with Natsal-3 CASI questions, where mode effects may be similar, suggest a selection bias in the Web surveys. The use of more complex quotas may lead to some improvement, but many estimates are still likely to differ. Volunteer Web panels are not recommended if accurate prevalence estimates for the general population are a key objective. PMID:25488851

Quantitative assessment of hit detection and confirmation in single and duplicate high-throughput screenings.

PubMed

Wu, Zhijin; Liu, Dongmei; Sui, Yunxia

2008-02-01

The process of identifying active targets (hits) in high-throughput screening (HTS) usually involves 2 steps: first, removing or adjusting for systematic variation in the measurement process so that extreme values represent strong biological activity instead of systematic biases such as plate effect or edge effect and, second, choosing a meaningful cutoff on the calculated statistic to declare positive compounds. Both false-positive and false-negative errors are inevitable in this process. Common control or estimation of error rates is often based on an assumption of normal distribution of the noise. The error rates in hit detection, especially false-negative rates, are hard to verify because in most assays, only compounds selected in primary screening are followed up in confirmation experiments. In this article, the authors take advantage of a quantitative HTS experiment in which all compounds are tested 42 times over a wide range of 14 concentrations so true positives can be found through a dose-response curve. Using the activity status defined by dose curve, the authors analyzed the effect of various data-processing procedures on the sensitivity and specificity of hit detection, the control of error rate, and hit confirmation. A new summary score is proposed and demonstrated to perform well in hit detection and useful in confirmation rate estimation. In general, adjusting for positional effects is beneficial, but a robust test can prevent overadjustment. Error rates estimated based on normal assumption do not agree with actual error rates, for the tails of noise distribution deviate from normal distribution. However, false discovery rate based on empirically estimated null distribution is very close to observed false discovery proportion.

Do observational studies using propensity score methods agree with randomized trials? A systematic comparison of studies on acute coronary syndromes

PubMed Central

Dahabreh, Issa J.; Sheldrick, Radley C.; Paulus, Jessica K.; Chung, Mei; Varvarigou, Vasileia; Jafri, Haseeb; Rassen, Jeremy A.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Kitsios, Georgios D.

2012-01-01

Aims Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for assessing the efficacy of therapeutic interventions because randomization protects from biases inherent in observational studies. Propensity score (PS) methods, proposed as a potential solution to confounding of the treatment–outcome association, are widely used in observational studies of therapeutic interventions for acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We aimed to systematically assess agreement between observational studies using PS methods and RCTs on therapeutic interventions for ACS. Methods and results We searched for observational studies of interventions for ACS that used PS methods to estimate treatment effects on short- or long-term mortality. Using a standardized algorithm, we matched observational studies to RCTs based on patients’ characteristics, interventions, and outcomes (‘topics’), and we compared estimates of treatment effect between the two designs. When multiple observational studies or RCTs were identified for the same topic, we performed a meta-analysis and used the summary relative risk for comparisons. We matched 21 observational studies investigating 17 distinct clinical topics to 63 RCTs (median = 3 RCTs per observational study) for short-term (7 topics) and long-term (10 topics) mortality. Estimates from PS analyses differed statistically significantly from randomized evidence in two instances; however, observational studies reported more extreme beneficial treatment effects compared with RCTs in 13 of 17 instances (P = 0.049). Sensitivity analyses limited to large RCTs, and using alternative meta-analysis models yielded similar results. Conclusion For the treatment of ACS, observational studies using PS methods produce treatment effect estimates that are of more extreme magnitude compared with those from RCTs, although the differences are rarely statistically significant. PMID:22711757

Environmental effects of increased coal utilization: ecological effects of gaseous emissions from coal combustion.

PubMed Central

Glass, N R

1979-01-01

This report is limited to an evaluation of the ecological and environmental effects of gaseous emissions and aerosols of various types which result from coal combustion. It deals with NOx, SOx, fine particulate, photochemical oxidant and acid precipitation as these pollutants affect natural and managed resources and ecosystems. Also, synergistic effects involving two or more pollutants are evaluated as well as ecosystem level effects of gaseous pollutants. There is a brief summary of the effects on materials and atmospheric visibility of increased coal combustion. The economic implications of ecological effects are identified to the extent they can be determined within acceptable limits. Aquatic and terrestrial effects are distinguished where the pollutants in question are clearly problems in both media. At present, acid precipitation is most abundant in the north central and northeastern states. Total SOx and NOx emissions are projected to remain high in these regions while increasing relatively more in the western than in the eastern regions of the country. A variety of ecological processes are affected and altered by air pollution. Such processes include community succession and retrogression, nutrient biogeochemical cycling, photosynthetic activity, primary and secondary productivity, species diversity and community stability. Estimates of the non health-related cost of air pollutants range from several hundred million dollars to $1.7 billion dollars per year. In general, these estimates include only those relatively easily measured considerations such as the known losses to cultivate crops from acute air pollution episodes or the cost of frequent repainting required as a result of air pollution. No substantial nationwide estimates of losses to forest productivity, natural ecosystem productivity which is tapped by domestic grazing animals and wildlife, and other significant dollar losses are available. PMID:44247

Automatic physical inference with information maximizing neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnock, Tom; Lavaux, Guilhem; Wandelt, Benjamin D.

2018-04-01

Compressing large data sets to a manageable number of summaries that are informative about the underlying parameters vastly simplifies both frequentist and Bayesian inference. When only simulations are available, these summaries are typically chosen heuristically, so they may inadvertently miss important information. We introduce a simulation-based machine learning technique that trains artificial neural networks to find nonlinear functionals of data that maximize Fisher information: information maximizing neural networks (IMNNs). In test cases where the posterior can be derived exactly, likelihood-free inference based on automatically derived IMNN summaries produces nearly exact posteriors, showing that these summaries are good approximations to sufficient statistics. In a series of numerical examples of increasing complexity and astrophysical relevance we show that IMNNs are robustly capable of automatically finding optimal, nonlinear summaries of the data even in cases where linear compression fails: inferring the variance of Gaussian signal in the presence of noise, inferring cosmological parameters from mock simulations of the Lyman-α forest in quasar spectra, and inferring frequency-domain parameters from LISA-like detections of gravitational waveforms. In this final case, the IMNN summary outperforms linear data compression by avoiding the introduction of spurious likelihood maxima. We anticipate that the automatic physical inference method described in this paper will be essential to obtain both accurate and precise cosmological parameter estimates from complex and large astronomical data sets, including those from LSST and Euclid.

The Demand for Scientific and Technical Manpower in Selected Energy-Related Industries, 1970-85: A Methodology Applied to a Selected Scenario of Energy Output. A Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gutmanis, Ivars; And Others

The primary purpose of the study was to develop and apply a methodology for estimating the need for scientists and engineers by specialty in energy and energy-related industries. The projections methodology was based on the Case 1 estimates by the National Petroleum Council of the results of "maximum efforts" to develop domestic fuel sources by…

Taking the First Full Drink: Epidemiological Evidence on Male-Female Differences in the United States.

PubMed

Cheng, Hui G; Cantave, Marven D; Anthony, James C

2016-04-01

This research extends prior epidemiological estimates for the United States and re-examines a previously described male excess in alcohol drinking. Its aim was to estimate fine-grained age-specific incidence of becoming a drinker among 12- to 24-year-old U.S. males and females, and to compare incidence estimates with prevalence proportions. The study population is 12- to 24-year-old noninstitutionalized U.S. civilian residents. Estimates are from 12 successive U.S. National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), with nationally representative samples drawn each year from 2002 to 2013 and assessed via computer-assisted self-interviews (n ~ 390,000). Analysis-weighted incidence and prevalence estimates are generated using the NSDUH Restricted Data Analysis System for 6 year-pairs. Meta-analysis-derived summary estimates are provided, treating each year-pair as a replication. In this 21st century evidence, there no longer is male excess of incidence with respect to underage drinking. Indeed, in mid-adolescence, there is a clear female excess for the risk of becoming an underage drinker. Meta-analytic summaries disclosed no other male-female differences in incidence. Nevertheless, a male excess in the prevalence of recently active drinking can be seen after the age of 19 years. This new evidence from the United States shows that the so-called "gender gap" in risk of becoming a drinker has narrowed to the point of there being no gap at all. Indeed, in mid-adolescence, risk of starting to drink is greater for females than for males. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Summary of fuel economy performance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-30

This report contains estimated fleet production numbers and CAFE figures obtained from pre-model year (source 1) and mid-model year (source 2) documents assembled prior to or during the model year. The actual mpg values reported to EPA at the end of ...

Summary of fuel economy performance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-20

This report contains estimated fleet production numbers and CAFE figures obtained from pre-model year (source I) and mid-model year (source 2) documents assembled prior to or during the model year. The actual mpg values reported to EPA at the end of ...

Summary of fuel economy performance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-09

This report contains estimated fleet production numbers and CAFE figures obtained from pre-model year (source I) and mid-model year (source 2) documents assembled prior to or during the model year. The actual mpg values reported to EPA at the end of ...

Breast Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Breast cancer prevention strategies include avoiding known risks, having a healthy lifestyle, and medications or surgery for those at high risk. Learn more about breast cancer prevention, risks and protective factors, and how to estimate risk in this expert-reviewed summary.

Overseas Contingency Operations Funding: Background and Status

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-13

Coordinator Analyst in U.S. Defense Budget Policy June 13, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R44519 Overseas Contingency...Operations Funding: Background and Status Congressional Research Service Summary The Department of Defense (DOD) estimates that Congress has

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

[Historia magistra vitae: on the methods of historical demography].

PubMed

Botev, N

1992-01-01

Indirect estimation techniques are applied to data for Bulgaria from 1891 to 1958 to assess trends in population dynamics. An interdisciplinary approach is suggested for the study of countries where data are often incomplete. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Evaluation of contract time estimation and contracting procedures : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-08-01

The objective of this research was 1) to provide the DOTD with a systematic approach to the determination of contract duration, and 2) to explore innovative contracting procedures that may prove beneficial in DOTD projects. The innovative contracting...

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

Breast density estimation from high spectral and spatial resolution MRI

PubMed Central

Li, Hui; Weiss, William A.; Medved, Milica; Abe, Hiroyuki; Newstead, Gillian M.; Karczmar, Gregory S.; Giger, Maryellen L.

2016-01-01

Abstract. A three-dimensional breast density estimation method is presented for high spectral and spatial resolution (HiSS) MR imaging. Twenty-two patients were recruited (under an Institutional Review Board--approved Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant protocol) for high-risk breast cancer screening. Each patient received standard-of-care clinical digital x-ray mammograms and MR scans, as well as HiSS scans. The algorithm for breast density estimation includes breast mask generating, breast skin removal, and breast percentage density calculation. The inter- and intra-user variabilities of the HiSS-based density estimation were determined using correlation analysis and limits of agreement. Correlation analysis was also performed between the HiSS-based density estimation and radiologists’ breast imaging-reporting and data system (BI-RADS) density ratings. A correlation coefficient of 0.91 (p<0.0001) was obtained between left and right breast density estimations. An interclass correlation coefficient of 0.99 (p<0.0001) indicated high reliability for the inter-user variability of the HiSS-based breast density estimations. A moderate correlation coefficient of 0.55 (p=0.0076) was observed between HiSS-based breast density estimations and radiologists’ BI-RADS. In summary, an objective density estimation method using HiSS spectral data from breast MRI was developed. The high reproducibility with low inter- and low intra-user variabilities shown in this preliminary study suggest that such a HiSS-based density metric may be potentially beneficial in programs requiring breast density such as in breast cancer risk assessment and monitoring effects of therapy. PMID:28042590

Nonparametric EROC analysis for observer performance evaluation on joint detection and estimation tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart

2014-03-01

The majority of the literature on task-based image quality assessment has focused on lesion detection tasks, using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, or related variants, to measure performance. However, since many clinical image evaluation tasks involve both detection and estimation (e.g., estimation of kidney stone composition, estimation of tumor size), there is a growing interest in performance evaluation for joint detection and estimation tasks. To evaluate observer performance on such tasks, Clarkson introduced the estimation ROC (EROC) curve, and the area under the EROC curve as a summary figure of merit. In the present work, we propose nonparametric estimators for practical EROC analysis from experimental data, including estimators for the area under the EROC curve and its variance. The estimators are illustrated with a practical example comparing MRI images reconstructed from different k-space sampling trajectories.

Global mineral resource assessment: porphyry copper assessment of Mexico: Chapter A in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Ludington, Steve; Gray, Floyd; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Cendejas-Cruz, Francisco; Espinosa, Enrique; Pérez-Segura, Efrén; Valencia-Moreno, Martín; Rodríguez-Castañeda, José Luis; Vásquez-Mendoza, Rigobert; Zürcher, Lukas

2010-01-01

This report includes a brief overview of porphyry copper deposits in Mexico, a description of the assessment process used, a summary of results, and appendixes. Appendixes A through K contain summary information for each tract, as follows: location, the geologic feature assessed, the rationale for tract delineation, tables and descriptions of known deposits and significant prospects, exploration history, model selection, rationale for the estimates, assessment results, and references. The accompanying digital map files (shapefiles) provide permissive tract outlines, assessment results, and data for deposits and prospects in a GIS format (appendix L).

Are Study and Journal Characteristics Reliable Indicators of "Truth" in Imaging Research?

PubMed

Frank, Robert A; McInnes, Matthew D F; Levine, Deborah; Kressel, Herbert Y; Jesurum, Julia S; Petrcich, William; McGrath, Trevor A; Bossuyt, Patrick M

2018-04-01

Purpose To evaluate whether journal-level variables (impact factor, cited half-life, and Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies [STARD] endorsement) and study-level variables (citation rate, timing of publication, and order of publication) are associated with the distance between primary study results and summary estimates from meta-analyses. Materials and Methods MEDLINE was searched for meta-analyses of imaging diagnostic accuracy studies, published from January 2005 to April 2016. Data on journal-level and primary-study variables were extracted for each meta-analysis. Primary studies were dichotomized by variable as first versus subsequent publication, publication before versus after STARD introduction, STARD endorsement, or by median split. The mean absolute deviation of primary study estimates from the corresponding summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity was compared between groups. Means and confidence intervals were obtained by using bootstrap resampling; P values were calculated by using a t test. Results Ninety-eight meta-analyses summarizing 1458 primary studies met the inclusion criteria. There was substantial variability, but no significant differences, in deviations from the summary estimate between paired groups (P > .0041 in all comparisons). The largest difference found was in mean deviation for sensitivity, which was observed for publication timing, where studies published first on a topic demonstrated a mean deviation that was 2.5 percentage points smaller than subsequently published studies (P = .005). For journal-level factors, the greatest difference found (1.8 percentage points; P = .088) was in mean deviation for sensitivity in journals with impact factors above the median compared with those below the median. Conclusion Journal- and study-level variables considered important when evaluating diagnostic accuracy information to guide clinical decisions are not systematically associated with distance from the truth; critical appraisal of individual articles is recommended. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Diagnostic performance of HbA1c for diabetes in Arab vs. European populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bertran, E A; Berlie, H D; Taylor, A; Divine, G; Jaber, L A

2017-02-01

To examine differences in the performance of HbA 1c for diagnosing diabetes in Arabs compared with Europeans. The PubMed, Embase and Cochrane library databases were searched for records published between 1998 and 2015. Estimates of sensitivity, specificity and log diagnostic odds ratios for an HbA 1c cut-point of 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) were compared between Arabs and Europeans, using a bivariate linear mixed-model approach. For studies reporting multiple cut-points, population-specific summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were constructed. In addition, sensitivity, specificity and Youden Index were estimated for strata defined by HbA 1c cut-point and population type. Database searches yielded 1912 unique records; 618 full-text articles were reviewed. Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria; hand-searching yielded three additional eligible studies. Three Arab (N = 2880) and 16 European populations (N = 49 127) were included in the analysis. Summary sensitivity and specificity for a HbA 1c cut-point of 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) in both populations were 42% (33-51%), and 97% (95-98%). There was no difference in area under SROC curves between Arab and European populations (0.844 vs. 0.847; P = 0.867), suggesting no difference in HbA 1c diagnostic accuracy between populations. Multiple cut-point summary estimates stratified by population suggest that Arabs have lower sensitivity and higher specificity at a HbA 1c cut-point of 44 mmol/mol (6.2%) compared with European populations. Estimates also suggest similar test performance at cut-points of 44 mmol/mol (6.2%) and 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) for Arabs. Given the low sensitivity of HbA 1c in the high-risk Arab American population, we recommend a combination of glucose-based and HbA 1c testing to ensure an accurate and timely diagnosis of diabetes. © 2016 Diabetes UK.

A Review on Dimension Reduction

PubMed Central

Ma, Yanyuan; Zhu, Liping

2013-01-01

Summary Summarizing the effect of many covariates through a few linear combinations is an effective way of reducing covariate dimension and is the backbone of (sufficient) dimension reduction. Because the replacement of high-dimensional covariates by low-dimensional linear combinations is performed with a minimum assumption on the specific regression form, it enjoys attractive advantages as well as encounters unique challenges in comparison with the variable selection approach. We review the current literature of dimension reduction with an emphasis on the two most popular models, where the dimension reduction affects the conditional distribution and the conditional mean, respectively. We discuss various estimation and inference procedures in different levels of detail, with the intention of focusing on their underneath idea instead of technicalities. We also discuss some unsolved problems in this area for potential future research. PMID:23794782

Statistical methods for analysis of radiation effects with tumor and dose location-specific information with application to the WECARE study of asynchronous contralateral breast cancer

PubMed Central

Langholz, Bryan; Thomas, Duncan C.; Stovall, Marilyn; Smith, Susan A.; Boice, John D.; Shore, Roy E.; Bernstein, Leslie; Lynch, Charles F.; Zhang, Xinbo; Bernstein, Jonine L.

2009-01-01

Summary Methods for the analysis of individually matched case-control studies with location-specific radiation dose and tumor location information are described. These include likelihood methods for analyses that just use cases with precise location of tumor information and methods that also include cases with imprecise tumor location information. The theory establishes that each of these likelihood based methods estimates the same radiation rate ratio parameters, within the context of the appropriate model for location and subject level covariate effects. The underlying assumptions are characterized and the potential strengths and limitations of each method are described. The methods are illustrated and compared using the WECARE study of radiation and asynchronous contralateral breast cancer. PMID:18647297

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances.

PubMed

Gil, Manuel

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error. PMID:25279263

Prevalence of Depression and Depressive Symptoms Among Resident Physicians A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Mata, Douglas A.; Ramos, Marco A.; Bansal, Narinder; Khan, Rida; Guille, Constance; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Sen, Srijan

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Physicians in training are at high risk for depression. However, the estimated prevalence of this disorder varies substantially between studies. OBJECTIVE To provide a summary estimate of depression or depressive symptom prevalence among resident physicians. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Systematic search of EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO for studies with information on the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among resident physicians published between January 1963 and September 2015. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were published in the peer-reviewed literature and used a validated method to assess for depression or depressive symptoms. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Information on study characteristics and depression or depressive symptom prevalence was extracted independently by 2 trained investigators. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences by study-level characteristics were estimated using meta-regression. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Point or period prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms as assessed by structured interview or validated questionnaire. RESULTS Data were extracted from 31 cross-sectional studies (9447 individuals) and 23 longitudinal studies (8113 individuals). Three studies used clinical interviews and 51 used self-report instruments. The overall pooled prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms was 28.8% (4969/17 560 individuals, 95% CI, 25.3%-32.5%), with high between-study heterogeneity (Q = 1247, τ2 = 0.39, I2 = 95.8%, P < .001). Prevalence estimates ranged from 20.9% for the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire with a cutoff of 10 or more (741/3577 individuals, 95% CI, 17.5%-24.7%, Q = 14.4, τ2 = 0.04, I2 = 79.2%) to 43.2% for the 2-item PRIME-MD (1349/2891 individuals, 95% CI, 37.6%-49.0%, Q = 45.6, τ2 = 0.09, I2 = 84.6%). There was an increased prevalence with increasing calendar year (slope = 0.5% increase per year, adjusted for assessment modality; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.9%, P = .04). In a secondary analysis of 7 longitudinal studies, the median absolute increase in depressive symptoms with the onset of residency training was 15.8% (range, 0.3%-26.3%; relative risk, 4.5). No statistically significant differences were observed between cross-sectional vs longitudinal studies, studies of only interns vs only upper-level residents, or studies of nonsurgical vs both nonsurgical and surgical residents. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this systematic review, the summary estimate of the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among resident physicians was 28.8%, ranging from 20.9% to 43.2% depending on the instrument used, and increased with calendar year. Further research is needed to identify effective strategies for preventing and treating depression among physicians in training. PMID:26647259

EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.

PubMed

Wang, L E; Shaw, Pamela A; Mathelier, Hansie M; Kimmel, Stephen E; French, Benjamin

2016-03-01

The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.

Exposure enriched outcome dependent designs for longitudinal studies of gene-environment interaction.

PubMed

Sun, Zhichao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Estes, Jason P; Vokonas, Pantel S; Park, Sung Kyun

2017-08-15

Joint effects of genetic and environmental factors have been increasingly recognized in the development of many complex human diseases. Despite the popularity of case-control and case-only designs, longitudinal cohort studies that can capture time-varying outcome and exposure information have long been recommended for gene-environment (G × E) interactions. To date, literature on sampling designs for longitudinal studies of G × E interaction is quite limited. We therefore consider designs that can prioritize a subsample of the existing cohort for retrospective genotyping on the basis of currently available outcome, exposure, and covariate data. In this work, we propose stratified sampling based on summaries of individual exposures and outcome trajectories and develop a full conditional likelihood approach for estimation that adjusts for the biased sample. We compare the performance of our proposed design and analysis with combinations of different sampling designs and estimation approaches via simulation. We observe that the full conditional likelihood provides improved estimates for the G × E interaction and joint exposure effects over uncorrected complete-case analysis, and the exposure enriched outcome trajectory dependent design outperforms other designs in terms of estimation efficiency and power for detection of the G × E interaction. We also illustrate our design and analysis using data from the Normative Aging Study, an ongoing longitudinal cohort study initiated by the Veterans Administration in 1963. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lutetium oxyorthosilicate (LSO) intrinsic activity correction and minimal detectable target activity study for SPECT imaging with a LSO-based animal PET scanner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Rutao; Ma, Tianyu; Shao, Yiping

2008-08-01

This work is part of a feasibility study to develop SPECT imaging capability on a lutetium oxyorthosilicate (LSO) based animal PET system. The SPECT acquisition was enabled by inserting a collimator assembly inside the detector ring and acquiring data in singles mode. The same LSO detectors were used for both PET and SPECT imaging. The intrinsic radioactivity of 176Lu in the LSO crystals, however, contaminates the SPECT data, and can generate image artifacts and introduce quantification error. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effectiveness of a LSO background subtraction method, and to estimate the minimal detectable target activity (MDTA) of image object for SPECT imaging. For LSO background correction, the LSO contribution in an image study was estimated based on a pre-measured long LSO background scan and subtracted prior to the image reconstruction. The MDTA was estimated in two ways. The empirical MDTA (eMDTA) was estimated from screening the tomographic images at different activity levels. The calculated MDTA (cMDTA) was estimated from using a formula based on applying a modified Currie equation on an average projection dataset. Two simulated and two experimental phantoms with different object activity distributions and levels were used in this study. The results showed that LSO background adds concentric ring artifacts to the reconstructed image, and the simple subtraction method can effectively remove these artifacts—the effect of the correction was more visible when the object activity level was near or above the eMDTA. For the four phantoms studied, the cMDTA was consistently about five times of the corresponding eMDTA. In summary, we implemented a simple LSO background subtraction method and demonstrated its effectiveness. The projection-based calculation formula yielded MDTA results that closely correlate with that obtained empirically and may have predicative value for imaging applications.

Developing and Evaluating New Methods for Assessing Concurrent Environmental Exposures

EPA Science Inventory

Summary of purpose and scope (no longer than 200 words): One limitation to current environmental health research is the focus on single contaminant exposures. Each exposure estimated in epidemiologic models accounts for a relatively small proportion of observed variance in health...

Solar Power Satellite Concept Evaluation. Volume 1: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

A program was developed to determine the technical feasiblity of a satellite solar power station. The space construction, maintenance, and transport systems are discussed. Environmental factors, in addition to manufacturing, natural resources, and energy were considered. Cost estimates and alternative systems are outlined.

Estimating costs and benefits of emissions reduction strategies for transit by extending the TRIMMS model : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

Floridas remarkable transportation infrastructure is a key to its economic vitality, but transportation is also the single largest contributor to air pollution. Pollutants such as greenhouse gases (GHG) degrade air quality and contribute to climat...

Historical performance evaluation of Iowa pavement treatments using data analytics : tech transfer summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Evaluate the performance of the most-used pavement treatments in Iowa by considering different parameters such as type of treatment, treatment thickness, traffic, and pavement type : Estimate a service life for each treatment based on the obs...

Innovative methods for calculation of freeway travel time using limited data : executive summary report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-08-01

ODOTs policy for Dynamic Message Sign : utilization requires travel time(s) to be displayed as : a default message. The current method of : calculating travel time involves a workstation : operator estimating the travel time based upon : observati...

Estimating design discharges for drainage structures in western Kansas : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

KDOT engineers have expressed concern that the hydrologic methods in the current KDOT Design Manual (Volume I, Part C, 2011) may lead to over-sizing of drainage structures in Western Kansas. Some new structures designed by the current methods are muc...

76 FR 75518 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-02

... occupational injury survey. Together the survey's are designed to: (1) Provide estimates of childhood nonfatal injury incidence rates, annual injury frequencies, and descriptive injury information for children under... Injury and Adult Occupational Survey. OMB Control Number: 0535-0235. Summary of Collection: Primary...

Acute Gastroenteritis and Recreational Water: Highest Burden Among Young US Children

EPA Science Inventory

OBJECT I VES : To provide summary estimates of gastroenteritis risks and illness burden associated with recreational water exposure and determine whether children have higher risks and burden.METHODS: We combined individual participant data from 13 prospective cohorts at marine a...

Evaluation of consolidation characteristics of cohesive soils from piezocone penetration tests : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-07-01

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the current interpretation methods for their capability to reasonably predict the consolidation parameters needed to estimate the magnitude and time rate of consolidation settlement in fine-grained soi...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Seaburg, Adam

The study estimated dam passage survival at The Dalles Dam as stipulated by the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) Biological Opinion (BiOp) and provided additional performance measures as stipulated in the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. This summary report focuses on spring run stocks, yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead.

Adolescent Summaries of Narrative and Expository Discourse: Differences and Predictors.

PubMed

Lundine, Jennifer P; Harnish, Stacy M; McCauley, Rebecca J; Blackett, Deena Schwen; Zezinka, Alexandra; Chen, Wei; Fox, Robert A

2018-05-03

Summarizing expository passages is a critical academic skill that is understudied in language research. The purpose of this study was to compare the quality of verbal summaries produced by adolescents for 3 different discourse types and to determine whether a composite measure of cognitive skill or a test of expressive syntax predicted their performance. Fifty adolescents listened to, and then verbally summarized, 1 narrative and 2 expository lectures (compare-contrast and cause-effect). They also participated in testing that targeted expressive syntax and 5 cognitive subdomains. Summary quality scores were significantly different across discourse types, with a medium effect size. Analyses revealed significantly higher summary quality scores for cause-effect than compare-contrast summaries. Although the composite cognitive measure contributed significantly to the prediction of quality scores for both types of expository summaries, the expressive syntax score only contributed significantly to the quality scores for narrative summaries. These results support previous research indicating that type of expository discourse may impact student performance. These results also show, for the first time, that cognition may play a predictive role in determining summary quality for expository but not narrative passages in this population. In addition, despite the more complex syntax commonly associated with exposition versus narratives, an expressive syntax score was only predictive of performance on narrative summaries. These findings provide new information, questions, and directions for future research for those who study academic discourse and for professionals who must identify and manage the problems of students struggling with different types of academic discourse. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.6167879.

Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

PubMed Central

Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

Apremilast for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis: A Critique of the Evidence.

PubMed

Hinde, Sebastian; Wade, Ros; Palmer, Stephen; Woolacott, Nerys; Spackman, Eldon

2016-06-01

As part of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE) single technology appraisal (STA) process, apremilast was assessed to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of its use in the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in two patient populations, differentiated by the severity of the patient's Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) score. The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) and the Centre for Health Economics (CHE) Technology Appraisal Group at the University of York was commissioned to act as the evidence review group (ERG). This article provides a summary of the company's submission, the ERG report and NICE's subsequent guidance. In the company's initial submission, a sequence of treatments including apremilast was found to be both more effective and cheaper than a comparator sequence without it in both populations considered. However, this result was found to be highly sensitive to a series of assumptions made by the company, primarily reflecting the costs of best supportive care once no further treatments are available, and the source of utility estimates. A re-estimation of the cost effectiveness of apremilast by the ERG suggested that the apremilast sequence in the two populations was more effective, but due to high additional costs was not indicative of a cost-effective use of NHS resources. As such, in the final appraisal decision NICE concluded that apremilast was not cost effective in either population.

The skill of summary in clinician-patient communication: a case study.

PubMed

Quilligan, Sally; Silverman, Jonathan

2012-03-01

To investigate the use and impact of the micro-skill of summary in clinical encounters, a core skill that has little empirical investigation of its use and outcomes. This exploratory study used a mixed method design. Video recordings of ten consultations between simulated patients and medical-students were analysed to identify types of summary used. Two contrasting cases were then micro-analysed and follow up interviews held with the 2 students and simulated patients, involved in the consultations, using the video recording as a trigger. Ninety-nine summaries were identified and grouped into six types: reflective, screening, clarifying, paraphrasing, interim and full. Summary appeared to aid accuracy. However, summaries about the patient's perspective were summarised less frequently than the biomedical perspective. When summaries were repeatedly incorrect they made the simulated patient feel they were not being listened to. The use and effect of summary appears more complex than the medical literature suggests and may have both positive and negative attributes. Further research is needed to investigate whether these preliminary findings are replicated within doctor-patient consultations. When teaching use of summary we need to address: type, purpose, accuracy, effect on patient and flexible use to suit the patient. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Cretaceous Nanushuk and Torok Formations, Alaska North Slope, and summary of resource potential of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houseknecht, David W.; Lease, Richard O.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Mercier, Tracey J.; Rouse, William A.; Jarboe, Palma B.; Whidden, Katherine J.; Garrity, Christopher P.; Lewis, Kristen A.; Heller, Samuel; Craddock, William H.; Klett, Timothy R.; Le, Phuong A.; Smith, Rebecca; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Woodall, Cheryl A.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Leathers-Miller, Heidi M.; Finn, Thomas M.

2017-12-22

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of 8.7 billion barrels of oil and 25 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (associated and nonassociated) in conventional accumulations in the Cretaceous Nanushuk and Torok Formations in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, adjacent State and Native lands, and State waters. The estimated undiscovered oil resources in the Nanushuk and Torok Formations are significantly higher than previous estimates, owing primarily to recent, larger than anticipated oil discoveries.

CADDIS Volume 2. Sources, Stressors and Responses: Urbanization - Overview

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Introduction to urbanization and its effects of streams, a summary of the urban stream syndrome,an overview of the effects of urbanization on biotic integrity, a summary of catchment vs. riparian urbanization.

Natural sampling strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hallum, C. R.; Basu, J. P. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

A natural stratum-based sampling scheme and the aggregation procedures for estimating wheat area, yield, and production and their associated prediction error estimates are described. The methodology utilizes LANDSAT imagery and agrophysical data to permit an improved stratification in foreign areas by ignoring political boundaries and restratifying along boundaries that are more homogeneous with respect to the distribution of agricultural density, soil characteristics, and average climatic conditions. A summary of test results is given including a discussion of the various problems encountered.

A Meta-analysis for the Diagnostic Performance of Transient Elastography for Clinically Significant Portal Hypertension.

PubMed

You, Myung-Won; Kim, Kyung Won; Pyo, Junhee; Huh, Jimi; Kim, Hyoung Jung; Lee, So Jung; Park, Seong Ho

2017-01-01

We aimed to evaluate the correlation between liver stiffness measurement using transient elastography (TE-LSM) and hepatic venous pressure gradient and the diagnostic performance of TE-LSM in assessing clinically significant portal hypertension through meta-analysis. Eleven studies were included from thorough literature research and selection processes. The summary correlation coefficient was 0.783 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.737-0.823). Summary sensitivity, specificity and area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 87.5% (95% CI, 75.8-93.9%), 85.3 % (95% CI, 76.9-90.9%) and 0.9, respectively. The subgroup with low cut-off values of 13.6-18 kPa had better summary estimates (sensitivity 91.2%, specificity 81.3% and partial AUC 0.921) than the subgroup with high cut-off values of 21-25 kPa (sensitivity 71.2%, specificity 90.9% and partial AUC 0.769). In summary, TE-LSM correlated well with hepatic venous pressure gradient and represented good diagnostic performance in diagnosing clinically significant portal hypertension. For use as a sensitive screening tool, we propose using low cut-off values of 13.6-18 kPa in TE-LSM. Copyright © 2016 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical Investigation Program RCS-MED-300 (R1)

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-30

34, pluse one letter to the editor, and one article published (1986 and 1987). . .. ..... .......... .. . • m mmm il lm9 DETAIL SUMMARY SHEET DATE: 1 ...SUMMARY SHEET DATE: 1 October 1988 PROTOCOL #: 87/08 STATUS: Completed TITLE: A Pilot Study on Effect of Nicotine and Cigarette Smoking on...Clinical Immunology, Anaheim, California in March 1988. 29 DETAIL SUMMARY SHEET DATE: 1 October 1988 PROTOCOL #: 87/12 STATUS: Terminated TITLE: Effect

Multivariate Meta-Analysis of Heterogeneous Studies Using Only Summary Statistics: Efficiency and Robustness

PubMed Central

Liu, Dungang; Liu, Regina; Xie, Minge

2014-01-01

Meta-analysis has been widely used to synthesize evidence from multiple studies for common hypotheses or parameters of interest. However, it has not yet been fully developed for incorporating heterogeneous studies, which arise often in applications due to different study designs, populations or outcomes. For heterogeneous studies, the parameter of interest may not be estimable for certain studies, and in such a case, these studies are typically excluded from conventional meta-analysis. The exclusion of part of the studies can lead to a non-negligible loss of information. This paper introduces a metaanalysis for heterogeneous studies by combining the confidence density functions derived from the summary statistics of individual studies, hence referred to as the CD approach. It includes all the studies in the analysis and makes use of all information, direct as well as indirect. Under a general likelihood inference framework, this new approach is shown to have several desirable properties, including: i) it is asymptotically as efficient as the maximum likelihood approach using individual participant data (IPD) from all studies; ii) unlike the IPD analysis, it suffices to use summary statistics to carry out the CD approach. Individual-level data are not required; and iii) it is robust against misspecification of the working covariance structure of the parameter estimates. Besides its own theoretical significance, the last property also substantially broadens the applicability of the CD approach. All the properties of the CD approach are further confirmed by data simulated from a randomized clinical trials setting as well as by real data on aircraft landing performance. Overall, one obtains an unifying approach for combining summary statistics, subsuming many of the existing meta-analysis methods as special cases. PMID:26190875

Knowledge transfer to clinicians and consumers by the Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group.

PubMed

Santesso, Nancy; Maxwell, Lara; Tugwell, Peter S; Wells, George A; O'connor, Annette M; Judd, Maria; Buchbinder, Rachelle

2006-11-01

The Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group (CMSG) is one of 50 groups of the Cochrane Collaboration that prepares, maintains, and disseminates systematic reviews of treatments for musculoskeletal diseases. Once systematic reviews are completed, the next challenge is presenting the results in useful formats to be integrated into the healthcare decisions of clinicians and consumers. The CMSG recommends 3 methods to aid knowledge translation and exchange between clinicians and patients: produce clinical relevance tables, create graphical displays using face figures, and write consumer summaries and patient decision aids. Accordingly, CMSG has developed specific guidelines to help researchers and authors convert the pooled estimates of metaanalyses in the systematic reviews to user-friendly numbers. First, clinical relevance tables are developed that include absolute and relative benefits or harms and the numbers needed to treat. Next, the numbers from the clinical relevance tables are presented graphically using faces. The faces represent a group of 100 people and are shaded according to how many people out of 100 benefited or were harmed by the interventions. The user-friendly numbers are also included in short summaries and decision aids written for patients. The different levels of detail in the summaries and decision aids provide patients with tools to prepare them to discuss treatment options with their clinicians. Methods to improve the effects and usability of systematic reviews by providing results in more clinically relevant formats are essential. Both clinicians and consumers can use these products to use evidence-based information in individual and shared decision-making.

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Regression Analysis of a Disease Onset Distribution Using Diagnosis Data

PubMed Central

Young, Jessica G.; Jewell, Nicholas P.; Samuels, Steven J.

2008-01-01

Summary We consider methods for estimating the effect of a covariate on a disease onset distribution when the observed data structure consists of right-censored data on diagnosis times and current status data on onset times amongst individuals who have not yet been diagnosed. Dunson and Baird (2001, Biometrics 57, 306–403) approached this problem using maximum likelihood, under the assumption that the ratio of the diagnosis and onset distributions is monotonic nondecreasing. As an alternative, we propose a two-step estimator, an extension of the approach of van der Laan, Jewell, and Petersen (1997, Biometrika 84, 539–554) in the single sample setting, which is computationally much simpler and requires no assumptions on this ratio. A simulation study is performed comparing estimates obtained from these two approaches, as well as that from a standard current status analysis that ignores diagnosis data. Results indicate that the Dunson and Baird estimator outperforms the two-step estimator when the monotonicity assumption holds, but the reverse is true when the assumption fails. The simple current status estimator loses only a small amount of precision in comparison to the two-step procedure but requires monitoring time information for all individuals. In the data that motivated this work, a study of uterine fibroids and chemical exposure to dioxin, the monotonicity assumption is seen to fail. Here, the two-step and current status estimators both show no significant association between the level of dioxin exposure and the hazard for onset of uterine fibroids; the two-step estimator of the relative hazard associated with increasing levels of exposure has the least estimated variance amongst the three estimators considered. PMID:17680832

Impacts of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) development on recreation and tourism. Volume 1. Executive summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The study was intended to provide the Mineral Management Service (MMS) with an analytical tool to evaluate possible economic impacts from Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) development. In particular, the study was designed to provide MMS staff who work on lease sale Energy Impact Statements with an objective technique for estimating the impacts to coastal communities from events that might occur as a result of lease sales: oil spills, onshore construction, and construction of platforms offshore. The project had several specific objectives: (1) provide profiles of 1982 socio-economic conditions in coastal communities, including an analysis of the relative importance of themore » tourist industry in each coastal county; (2) develop a methodology for determining the effects of OCS development on coastal recreation; and recommend mitigation measure that may reduce the negative effect of OCS development on coastal recreation using gravity and economic effects models.« less

Management strategies for fibromyalgia

PubMed Central

Le Marshall, Kim Francis; Littlejohn, Geoffrey Owen

2011-01-01

Clinical question What are the effective, evidence-based strategies available for the management of fibromyalgia? Conclusion There are a number of management strategies available with robust evidence to support their use in clinical practice. Definition Fibromyalgia is a complex pain syndrome characterized by widespread, chronic muscular pain and tenderness, disordered sleep, emotional distress, cognitive disturbance, and fatigue. Its prevalence is estimated to be 3%–5% in the population and higher yet in patients with comorbid rheumatic diseases. Level of evidence Systematic reviews, meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Search sources PubMed, Cochrane Library, manual search Consumer summary Key messages for patients and clinicians are: There are many effective pharmacological management strategies available for fibromyalgia.A nonpharmacological, multicomponent approach utilizing education, aerobic exercise, psychological therapy, and other strategies is also effective for fibromyalgia.Despite the significant and, at times, disabling physical and psychological symptoms, fibromyalgia can be a manageable condition with a potentially good outcome. PMID:27790003

Human health exposure assessment for Rocky Mountain Arsenal. Volume 7. Summary exposure assessment version 4. 1. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The objectives of the Human Health Exposure Assessment include: (1) estimate the type and magnitude of exposures to contaminants; (2) Identify contaminants of concern; (3) Identify sites for remedial action; (4) Recommend sites for the no action remedial alternative; and (5) Provide a basis for detailed characterization of the risk associated with all sites. This document consists of the following: An executive summary. Vol I - Land use and exposed population evaluations. Vol. II III - Toxicity assessment (includes army and shell toxicity profiles). Vol. IV - PPLV Methodology. Vol. V - PPLV Calculations. Vol. VI - Study area exposuremore » analysis A introduction, B Western study ares, C Southern study area, D northern Central study area, E Central study area, F Eastern study area, G South plants study area, and H North plants study area. Vol. VII - Summary exposure assessment.« less

A Stimulus-Locked Vector Autoregressive Model for Slow Event-Related fMRI Designs

PubMed Central

Siegle, Greg

2009-01-01

Summary Neuroscientists have become increasingly interested in exploring dynamic relationships among brain regions. Such a relationship, when directed from one region toward another, is denoted by “effective connectivity.” An fMRI experimental paradigm which is well-suited for examination of effective connectivity is the slow event-related design. This design presents stimuli at sufficient temporal spacing for determining within-trial trajectories of BOLD activation, allowing for the analysis of stimulus-locked temporal covariation of brain responses in multiple regions. This may be especially important for emotional stimuli processing, which can evolve over the course of several seconds, if not longer. However, while several methods have been devised for determining fMRI effective connectivity, few are adapted to event-related designs, which include non-stationary BOLD responses and multiple levels of nesting. We propose a model tailored for exploring effective connectivity of multiple brain regions in event-related fMRI designs - a semi-parametric adaptation of vector autoregressive (VAR) models, termed “stimulus-locked VAR” (SloVAR). Connectivity coefficients vary as a function of time relative to stimulus onset, are regularized via basis expansions, and vary randomly across subjects. SloVAR obtains flexible, data-driven estimates of effective connectivity and hence is useful for building connectivity models when prior information on dynamic regional relationships is sparse. Indices derived from the coefficient estimates can also be used to relate effective connectivity estimates to behavioral or clinical measures. We demonstrate the SloVAR model on a sample of clinically depressed and normal controls, showing that early but not late cortico-amygdala connectivity appears crucial to emotional control and early but not late cortico-cortico connectivity predicts depression severity in the depressed group, relationships that would have been missed in a more traditional VAR analysis. PMID:19236927

Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach.

PubMed

Elbasha, Elamin H

2005-05-01

The availability of patient-level data from clinical trials has spurred a lot of interest in developing methods for quantifying and presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Although the majority has focused on developing methods for using sample data to estimate a confidence interval for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a small strand of the literature has emphasized the importance of incorporating risk preferences and the trade-off between the mean and the variance of returns to investment in health and medicine (mean-variance analysis). This paper shows how the exponential utility-moment-generating function approach is a natural extension to this branch of the literature for modelling choices from healthcare interventions with uncertain costs and effects. The paper assumes an exponential utility function, which implies constant absolute risk aversion, and is based on the fact that the expected value of this function results in a convenient expression that depends only on the moment-generating function of the random variables. The mean-variance approach is shown to be a special case of this more general framework. The paper characterizes the solution to the resource allocation problem using standard optimization techniques and derives the summary measure researchers need to estimate for each programme, when the assumption of risk neutrality does not hold, and compares it to the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The importance of choosing the correct distribution of costs and effects and the issues related to estimation of the parameters of the distribution are also discussed. An empirical example to illustrate the methods and concepts is provided. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Etiologic effects and optimal intakes of foods and nutrients for risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses from the Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group (NutriCoDE)

PubMed Central

Peñalvo, Jose L.; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Rao, Mayuree; Fahimi, Saman; Powles, John; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2017-01-01

Background Dietary habits are major contributors to coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. However, comprehensive evaluation of etiologic effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic outcomes, their quantitative effects, and corresponding optimal intakes are not well-established. Objective To systematically review the evidence for effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic diseases, including comprehensively assess evidence for causality; estimate magnitudes of etiologic effects; evaluate heterogeneity and potential for bias in these etiologic effects; and determine optimal population intake levels. Methods We utilized Bradford-Hill criteria to assess probable or convincing evidence for causal effects of multiple diet-cardiometabolic disease relationships. Etiologic effects were quantified from published or de novo meta-analyses of prospective studies or randomized clinical trials, incorporating standardized units, dose-response estimates, and heterogeneity by age and other characteristics. Potential for bias was assessed in validity analyses. Optimal intakes were determined by levels associated with lowest disease risk. Results We identified 10 foods and 7 nutrients with evidence for causal cardiometabolic effects, including protective effects of fruits, vegetables, beans/legumes, nuts/seeds, whole grains, fish, yogurt, fiber, seafood omega-3s, polyunsaturated fats, and potassium; and harms of unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, glycemic load, trans-fats, and sodium. Proportional etiologic effects declined with age, but did not generally vary by sex. Established optimal population intakes were generally consistent with observed national intakes and major dietary guidelines. In validity analyses, the identified effects of individual dietary components were similar to quantified effects of dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors and hard endpoints. Conclusions These novel findings provide a comprehensive summary of causal evidence, quantitative etiologic effects, heterogeneity, and optimal intakes of major dietary factors for cardiometabolic diseases, informing disease impact estimation and policy planning and priorities. PMID:28448503

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashe, Mary; Chwastyk, Dan; de Monasterio, Caroline

The 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization is the second report released by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solid State Lighting Program that provides summary estimates of the installed stock, energy use, and lumen production of all lamps operating in the U.S, the first version being released in 2002.

ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

DOE Data Explorer

McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

2010-01-26

Calculate monthly mean diurnal cycle based on the hourly CMBE data with qcflag >=-1 (>30% valid data within the averaged hour). For 2-D clouds, only data over the period when both MMCR and MPL were working are used.

Research needs and evaluation of air pollution problems associated with vehicular emissions : summary of final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-11-01

The objective of this investigation is to determine if there is currently an adequate organization of technical and scientific knowledge to accurately estimate the impact of mobile sources on urban air quality. Engineering problems related to vehicul...

Ecological impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: implications for immunotoxicity

EPA Science Inventory

Summary of major Federal and multi-stake holder research efforts in response to the DWH spill, including laboratory oil dispersant testing, estimation of oil release rates and oil fate calculations, subsea monitoring, and post-spill assessments. Impacts from shoreline oiling, wil...

50 CFR 300.181 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... filing of an entry summary for consumption with customs authorities, in proper form, with estimated duties attached. Entry for consumption, for purposes of this subpart, has the same meaning as entry for consumption, withdrawal from warehouse for consumption, or entry for consumption of merchandise from a foreign...