Water pH and temperature in Lake Biwa from MBT'/CBT indices during the last 282 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajioka, T.; Yamamoto, M.; Takemura, K.; Hayashida, A.

2014-03-01

We generated a 282 000-year record of water pH and temperature in Lake Biwa, central Japan, by analysing the methylation index (MBT') and cyclisation ratio (CBT) of branched tetraethers in sediments from piston and borehole cores to understand the responses of precipitation and air temperature in central Japan to the East Asian monsoon variability on the orbital timescale. Because water pH in Lake Biwa is determined by phosphorus input driven by precipitation, the record of water pH should indicate changes in summer precipitation in central Japan. The estimated pH showed significant periodicity at 19 and 23 ka (precession) and at 41 ka (obliquity). The variation in the estimated pH agrees with variation in the pollen temperature index. This indicates synchronous variation in summer air temperature and precipitation in central Japan, which contradicts the conclusions of previous studies. The variation in estimated pH was also synchronous with the variation of oxygen isotopes in stalagmites in China, suggesting that East Asian summer monsoon precipitation was governed by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation on orbital timescales. However, the estimated winter temperatures were higher during interglacials and lower during glacials, showing an eccentricity cycle. This suggests that the temperature variation reflected winter monsoon variability.

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.

2017-08-01

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

A Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction (1725-present) of the Position of the Summer North Atlantic Jet Shows a 20th Century Northward Shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.

2014-12-01

The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and the societal, ecosystem, and economic damage related to them. The position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) controls the location of the Atlantic storm track and anomalies in the NAJ position have been related to temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe. In summer, a southern NAJ regime can result in floods in the British Isles (BRIT) and increasing odds of heat waves in the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). Variability in the amplitude and speed of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream is hotly debated as a potential mechanism linking recent mid-latitude weather extremes to anthropogenic warming. However, the hypothesis of jet stream variability as a possible mechanism linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather extremes is largely based on data sets with limited temporal extent that do not warrant robust results from a statistical significance perspective. Here, we combined two summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct interannual variability in the latitudinal position of the summer NAJ back to 1725. The two well-replicated temperature proxies counter-correlate significantly over the full period and thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions. Positive extremes in the NAJ reconstruction correspond to heatwaves recorded in the historical Central England temperature record and negative extremes correspond to reconstructed fire years in Greece. The reconstruction shows a northward shift in the latitudinal NAJ position since the 1930s that is most pronounced in the northern NAJ extremes, suggesting a more frequent occurrence of BRIT hot summers in the 20th century compared to previous centuries.

Temperature Trends in the Polar Mesosphere between 2002-2007 using TIMED/SABER Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Kutepov, Alexander A.; Pesnell, William Dean; Latteck, Ralph; Russell, James M.

2008-01-01

The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The TIMED/SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as the temperature of the region. In this study, we have concentrated on the polar mesosphere, to investigate the temperature characteristics as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We used the recently revised SABER dataset (1.07) that contains improved temperature retrievals in the Earth polar summer regions. Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer, as well as to study the variability in different quadrants of each hemisphere. For each year studied, the duration of polar summer based on temperature measurements compares favorably with the PMSE (Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes) season measured by radar at the ALOMAR Observatory in Norway (69 N). The PMSE period should also define the summer period suitable for the occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds. The unusual short and relatively warm polar summer in the northern hemisphere

Seasonal variability of the Red Sea, from GRACE time-variable gravity and altimeter sea surface height measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahr, John; Smeed, David; Leuliette, Eric; Swenson, Sean

2014-05-01

Seasonal variability of sea surface height and mass within the Red Sea, occurs mostly through the exchange of heat with the atmosphere and wind-driven inflow and outflow of water through the strait of Bab el Mandab that opens into the Gulf of Aden to the south. The seasonal effects of precipitation and evaporation, of water exchange through the Suez Canal to the north, and of runoff from the adjacent land, are all small. The flow through the Bab el Mandab involves a net mass transfer into the Red Sea during the winter and a net transfer out during the summer. But that flow has a multi-layer pattern, so that in the summer there is actually an influx of cool water at intermediate (~100 m) depths. Thus, summer water in the southern Red Sea is warmer near the surface due to higher air temperatures, but cooler at intermediate depths (especially in the far south). Summer water in the northern Red Sea experiences warming by air-sea exchange only. The temperature profile affects the water density, which impacts the sea surface height but has no effect on vertically integrated mass. Here, we study this seasonal cycle by combining GRACE time-variable mass estimates, altimeter (Jason-1, Jason-2, and Envisat) measurements of sea surface height, and steric sea surface height contributions derived from depth-dependent, climatological values of temperature and salinity obtained from the World Ocean Atlas. We find good consistency, particularly in the northern Red Sea, between these three data types. Among the general characteristics of our results are: (1) the mass contributions to seasonal SSHT variations are much larger than the steric contributions; (2) the mass signal is largest in winter, consistent with winds pushing water into the Red Sea through the Strait of Bab el Mandab in winter, and out during the summer; and (3) the steric signal is largest in summer, consistent with summer sea surface warming.

Leaf growth dynamics in four plant species of the Patagonian Monte, Argentina.

PubMed

Campanella, M Victoria; Bertiller, Mónica B

2013-07-01

Studying plant responses to environmental variables is an elemental key to understand the functioning of arid ecosystems. We selected four dominant species of the two main life forms. The species selected were two evergreen shrubs: Larrea divaricata and Chuquiraga avellanedae and two perennial grasses: Nassella tenuis and Pappostipa speciosa. We registered leaf/shoot growth, leaf production and environmental variables (precipitation, air temperature, and volumetric soil water content at two depths) during summer-autumn and winter-spring periods. Multiple regressions were used to test the predictive power of the environmental variables. During the summer-autumn period, the strongest predictors of leaf/shoot growth and leaf production were the soil water content of the upper layer and air temperature while during the winter-spring period, the strongest predictor was air temperature. In conclusion, we found that the leaf/shoot growth and leaf production were associated with current environmental conditions, specially to soil water content and air temperature.

Stream shading, summer streamflow and maximum water temperature following intense wildfire in headwater streams

Treesearch

Michael Amaranthus; Howard Jubas; David Arthur

1989-01-01

Adjacent headwater streams were monitored for postfire shade, summer streamflow and maximum water temperature following the 40,000 ha Silver Complex fire in southern Oregon. Average postfire shade (30 percent) for the three streams was considerably less than prefire shade (est.>90 percent). Dramatic increases in direct solar radiation resulted in large but variable...

Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mather, M. E.; Parrish, D.L.; Campbell, C.A.; McMenemy, J.R.; Smith, Joseph M.

2008-01-01

Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (???23??C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Subsurface temperature estimation from climatology and satellite SST for the sea around Korean Peninsula 1Bong-Guk, Kim, 1Yang-Ki, Cho, 1Bong-Gwan, Kim, 1Young-Gi, Kim, 1Ji-Hoon, Jung 1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Bong-Guk; Cho, Yang-Ki; Kim, Bong-Gwan; Kim, Young-Gi; Jung, Ji-Hoon

2015-04-01

Subsurface temperature plays an important role in determining heat contents in the upper ocean which are crucial in long-term and short-term weather systems. Furthermore, subsurface temperature affects significantly ocean ecology. In this study, a simple and practical algorithm has proposed. If we assume that subsurface temperature changes are proportional to surface heating or cooling, subsurface temperature at each depth (Sub_temp) can be estimated as follows PIC whereiis depth index, Clm_temp is temperature from climatology, dif0 is temperature difference between satellite and climatology in the surface, and ratio is ratio of temperature variability in each depth to surface temperature variability. Subsurface temperatures using this algorithm from climatology (WOA2013) and satellite SST (OSTIA) where calculated in the sea around Korean peninsula. Validation result with in-situ observation data show good agreement in the upper 50 m layer with RMSE (root mean square error) less than 2 K. The RMSE is smallest with less than 1 K in winter when surface mixed layer is thick, and largest with about 2~3 K in summer when surface mixed layer is shallow. The strong thermocline and large variability of the mixed layer depth might result in large RMSE in summer. Applying of mixed layer depth information for the algorithm may improve subsurface temperature estimation in summer. Spatial-temporal details on the improvement and its causes will be discussed.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, Kristine L.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Lin, Ke; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2014-05-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual ( 2.0°C) and multidecadal variability ( 1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades ( 1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734-2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100-year periods.

High-frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large-scale circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Fu-Ting; Fu, Congbin; Qian, Yun

Two measures of intra-seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations (SD) and day-to-day (DTD) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2-day periods, as well as their relationships with large-scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures (Tmin) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer,more » an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and high-level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream (EASJ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD, but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, Tmax. In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD. In winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra-seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the Tmin. The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the Tmin, demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD. Overall, the large-scale circulation can well explain the intra-seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.« less

Effects of high summer temperatures on mortality in 50 Spanish cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Diaz, Julio

2014-06-09

Periods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990-2004. Poisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves. Risk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants. Cities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.

Environmental forcing on jellyfish communities in a small temperate estuary.

PubMed

Primo, Ana Lígia; Marques, Sónia C; Falcão, Joana; Crespo, Daniel; Pardal, Miguel A; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M

2012-08-01

The impact of biological, hydrodynamic and large scale climatic variables on the jellyfish community of Mondego estuary was evaluated from 2003 to 2010. Plankton samples were collected at the downstream part of the estuary. Siphonophora Muggiaea atlantica and Diphyes spp. were the main jellyfish species. Jellyfish density was generally higher in summer and since 2005 densities had increased. Summer community analysis pointed out Acartia clausi, estuarine temperature and salinity as the main driven forces for the assemblage's structure. Also, Chl a, estuarine salinity, runoff and SST were identified as the major environmental factors influencing the siphonophores summer interannual variability. Temperature influenced directly and indirectly the community and fluctuation of jellyfish blooms in the Mondego estuary. This study represents a contribution to a better knowledge of the gelatinous plankton communities in small temperate estuaries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variability and influence of outdoor temperature on body temperature of cardiac arrest victims.

PubMed

Stratil, Peter; Wallmueller, Christian; Schober, Andreas; Stoeckl, Mathias; Hoerburger, David; Weiser, Christoph; Testori, Christoph; Krizanac, Danica; Spiel, Alexander; Uray, Thomas; Sterz, Fritz; Haugk, Moritz

2013-05-01

Mild therapeutic hypothermia is a major advance in post-resuscitation-care. Some questions remain unclear regarding the time to initiate cooling and the time to achieve target temperature below 34 °C. We examined whether seasonal variability of outside temperature influences the body temperature of cardiac arrest victims, and if this might have an effect on outcome. Patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrests were enrolled retrospectively. Temperature variables from 4 climatic stations in Vienna were provided from the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. Depending on the outside temperature at the scene the study participants were assigned to a seasonal group. To compare the seasonal groups a Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test was performed as appropriate. Of 134 patients, 61 suffered their cardiac arrest during winter, with an outside temperature below 10 °C; in 39 patients the event occurred during summer, with an outside temperature above 20 °C. Comparing the tympanic temperature recorded at hospital admission, the median of 36 °C (IQR 35.3-36.3) during summer differed significantly to winter with a median of 34.9 °C (IQR 34-35.6) (p<0.05). This seasonal alterations in core body temperature had no impact on the time-to-target-temperature, survival rate or neurologic recovery. The seasonal variability of outside temperature influences body temperature of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest victims. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg I; Jorgenson, Janet C; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E; Walker, Marilyn D; Walker, Marilyn

2015-01-13

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Trachsel, Mathias; Telford, Richard J.; Laepple, Thomas

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen, foraminifera or chironomids are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that in our model experiments the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We furthermore show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable, such as summer temperatures in the model's Arctic, are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution. Expert knowledge on the ecophysiological drivers of the proxies, as well as statistical methods that go beyond the cross validation on modern calibration datasets, are crucial to avoid misinterpretation.

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam; Hermanson, Leon; Fereday, David; O'Reilly, Chris; Stirling, Alison; Eade, Rosie; Gordon, Margaret; MacLachlan, Craig; Woollings, Tim; Sheen, Katy; Belcher, Stephen

2018-04-01

Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r 0.5, p < 0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g., wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g., dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapor into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general—although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses), very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skillful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.

Antarctic Sea ice variations and seasonal air temperature relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weatherly, John W.; Walsh, John E.; Zwally, H. J.

1991-01-01

Data through 1987 are used to determine the regional and seasonal dependencies of recent trends of Antarctic temperature and sea ice. Lead-lag relationships involving regional sea ice and air temperature are systematically evaluated, with an eye toward the ice-temperature feedbacks that may influence climatic change. Over the 1958-1087 period the temperature trends are positive in all seasons. For the 15 years (l973-l987) for which ice data are available, the trends are predominantly positive only in winter and summer, and are most strongly positive over the Antarctic Peninsula. The spatially aggregated trend of temperature for this latter period is small but positive, while the corresponding trend of ice coverage is small but negative. Lag correlations between seasonal anomalies of the two variables are generally stronger with ice lagging the summer temperatures and with ice leading the winter temperatures. The implication is that summer temperatures predispose the near-surface waters to above-or below-normal ice coverage in the following fall and winter.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic variables in hair sheep located in an arid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macías-Cruz, U.; López-Baca, M. A.; Vicente, R.; Mejía, A.; Álvarez, F. D.; Correa-Calderón, A.; Meza-Herrera, C. A.; Mellado, M.; Guerra-Liera, J. E.; Avendaño-Reyes, L.

2016-08-01

Twenty Dorper × Pelibuey primiparous ewes were used to evaluate effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (i.e., spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic responses under production conditions in an arid region. Ten ewes experiencing summer heat stress (i.e., temperature = 34.8 ± 4.6 °C; THI = 81.6 ± 3.2 units) and 10 under spring thermoneutral conditions (temperature = 24.2 ± 5.4 °C; THI = 68.0 ± 4.8 units) were corralled together to measure rectal temperature, respiratory frequency, and skin temperatures at 0600, 1200, 1800, and 2400 h on four occasions over 40 days. Blood metabolite and electrolyte concentrations were also measured at 0600 and 1800 hours. Data were analyzed with a completely randomized design using repeated measurements in time. Rectal and skin temperatures, as well as respiratory frequency, were higher ( P < 0.01) in summer than spring at all measured days. Blood serum glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides, and chlorine concentrations were lower ( P < 0.01) in summer than spring at 0800 and 1800 hours. In contrast, summer heat stress increased ( P < 0.01) blood urea and potassium concentrations at 0800 and 1800 hours. Compared with spring thermoneutral conditions, summer heat stress affected the physiological and metabolic status of hair breed ewes in an arid region, which included blood metabolite and electrolyte adjustments to efficiently cope with summer heat stress.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLong, Kristine L.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Shen, CC

2014-01-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42′N, 82°48′W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual (~2.0°C) and multidecadal variability (~1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades (~1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734–2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Influence of preonset land atmospheric conditions on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh K.; Pokhrel, Samir; Sujith, K.; Halder, Subhadeep

2015-05-01

A possible link between preonset land atmospheric conditions and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is explored. It is shown that, the preonset positive (negative) rainfall anomaly over northwest India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran is associated with decrease (increase) in ISMR, primarily in the months of June and July, which in turn affects the seasonal mean. ISMR in the months of June and July is also strongly linked with the preonset 2 m air temperature over the same regions. The preonset rainfall/2 m air temperature variability is linked with stationary Rossby wave response, which is clearly evident in the wave activity flux diagnostics. As the predictability of Indian summer monsoon relies mainly on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the found link may further enhance our ability to predict the monsoon, particularly during a non-ENSO year.

Factors influencing geographic patterns in diversity of forest bird communities of eastern Connecticut, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Robert J.; Klaver, Robert W.

2012-01-01

At regional scales, the most important variables associated with diversity are latitudinally-based temperature and net primary productivity, although diversity is also influenced by habitat. We examined bird species richness, community density and community evenness in forests of eastern Connecticut to determine whether: 1) spatial and seasonal patterns exist in diversity, 2) energy explains the greatest proportion of variation in diversity parameters, 3) variation in habitat explains remaining diversity variance, and 4) seasonal shifts in diversity provide clues about how environmental variables shape communities. We sought to discover if our data supported predictions of the species–energy hypothesis. We used the variable circular plot technique to estimate bird populations and quantified the location, elevation, forest type, vegetation type, canopy cover, moisture regime, understory density and primary production for the study sites. We found that 1) summer richness and population densities are roughly equal in northeastern and southeastern Connecticut, whereas in winter both concentrate toward the coast, 2) variables linked with temperature explained much of the patterns in winter diversity, but energy-related variables showed little relationship to summer diversity, 3) the effect of habitat variables on diversity parameters predominated in summer, although their effect was weak, 4) contrary to theory, evenness increased from summer to winter, and 5) support for predictions of species–energy theory was primarily restricted to winter data. Although energy and habitat played a role in explaining community patterns, they left much of the variance in regional diversity unexplained, suggesting that a large stochastic component to diversity also may exist.

How East Asian westerly jet's meridional position affects the summer rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shixin; Zuo, Hongchao; Zhao, Shuman; Zhang, Jiankai; Lu, Sha

2017-03-01

Existing studies show that the change in the meridional position of East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) is associated with rainfall anomalies in Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) in summer. However, the dynamic mechanism has not been resolved yet. The present study reveals underlying mechanisms for this impact for early summer and midsummer, separately. Mechanism1: associated with EAWJ's anomalously southward displacement, the 500-hPa westerly wind over YHRV is strengthened through midtropospheric horizontal circulation anomalies; the westerly anomalies are related to the formation of warm advection anomalies over YHRV, which cause increased rainfall through adiabatic ascent motion and convective activities; the major difference in these processes between early summer and midsummer is the midtropospheric circulation anomaly pattern. Mechanism 2: associated with EAWJ's anomalously southward displacement, the large day-to-day variability of midtropospheric temperature advection in midlatitudes is displaced southward by the jet's trapping transient eddies; this change enhances the day-to-day variability of temperature advection over YHRV, which in turn causes the increased rainfall in most part of YHRV through "lower-bound effect" (rainfall amount can not become negative); there is not much difference in these processes between early summer and midsummer.

Spatiotemporal Co-variability of Surface Climate for Renewable Energy across the Contiguous United States: Role of the North Atlantic Subtropical High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doering, K.; Steinschneider, S.

2017-12-01

The variability of renewable energy supply and drivers of demand across space and time largely determines the energy balance within power systems with a high penetration of renewable technologies. This study examines the joint spatiotemporal variability of summertime climate linked to renewable energy production (precipitation, wind speeds, insolation) and energy demand (temperature) across the contiguous United States (CONUS) between 1948 and 2015. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify the major modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation and related patterns of insolation and temperature. Canonical variates are then related to circulation anomalies to identify common drivers of the joint modes of climate variability. Results show that the first two modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation exhibit pan-US dipole patterns with centers of action located in the eastern and central CONUS. Temperature and insolation also exhibit related US-wide dipoles. The relationship between canonical variates and lower-tropospheric geopotential height indicates that these modes are related to variability in the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). This insight can inform optimal strategies for siting renewables in an interconnected electric grid, and has implications for the impacts of climate variability and change on renewable energy systems.

Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeter, K. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.; Lewis, G.; Meehan, T.; McCarthy, F.; Overly, T.; Birkel, S. D.

2018-04-01

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of 1.2°C since 1870-1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Water pH and temperature in Lake Biwa from MBT'/CBT indices during the last 280 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajioka, T.; Yamamoto, M.; Takemura, K.; Hayashida, A.; Kitagawa, H.

2014-10-01

We generated a 280 000 yr record of water pH and temperature in Lake Biwa, central Japan, by analysing the methylation index (MBT') and cyclisation ratio (CBT) of branched tetraethers in sediments from piston and borehole cores. Our aim was to understand the responses of precipitation and air temperature in central Japan to the East Asian monsoon variability on orbital timescales. Because the water pH in Lake Biwa is determined by phosphorus and alkali cation inputs, the record of water pH should indicate the changes in precipitation and temperature in central Japan. Comparison with a pollen assemblage in a Lake Biwa core suggests that lake water pH was determined by summer temperature in the low-eccentricity period before 55 ka, while it was determined by summer precipitation in the high-eccentricity period after 55 ka. From 130 to 55 ka, the variation in lake pH (summer precipitation) lagged behind that in summer temperature by several thousand years. This perspective is consistent with the conclusions of previous studies (Igarashi and Oba, 2006; Yamamoto, 2009), in that the temperature variation preceded the precipitation variation in central Japan.

Competing roles of air temperature and summer precipitation events on proglacial stream discharges in Chhota Shigri Glacier catchment, Indian Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL, R.

2016-12-01

It has been widely recognized that western Himalayan region depends heavily on glacier and snow melt for its water needs. This is true especially for the Chenab sub-basin and more generally for other sub-catchments of the mighty Indus catering to the water demands of millions of stake holders who depend on this water resource. However, there are very few studies available to understand high altitude glaciated catchments, the climatic controls over their flow regimes, and their dependency on glacier mass balances, mainly because of poor access. Hence, the proglacial stream discharges from Chhota Shigri Glacier, a representative glacier of western Himalayan region has been analyzed for understanding the impact of rising air temperatures and highly variable summer precipitation events on discharges that are sourced majorly from snow melt and glacier wastage. This study, for the first time attempts to understand the factors influencing the interannual, subseasonal, and the diurnal variability observed in this representative catchment over four ablation seasons (2010-2013), by monitoring solar radiation, air temperature, summer precipitation, albedo and transient snow cover. The proglacial discharge is governed by air temperatures and albedo-enhancing summer precipitation events, which also enhances transient snow cover. While, the positive mass balance years gave rise to lesser proglacial discharges in comparison to negative mass balance years, lesser winter accumulation was compensated by the lower ablation resulting summer snowfall events in some years. While rising summer air temperatures give rise to glacier wastage, the role of melting transient snow cover on stream discharge is highly significant, especially for positive mass balance years. The pronounced interannual variations and the decreased proglacial discharge in comparison to 1980s suggest that Chhota Shigri Glacier is possibly wasting its way to reach equilibrium to the changed climatic conditions of the 21st century; however these findings need to be corroborated with runoff modeling.

Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Fanwei; Collatz, George James; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2013-01-01

Satellite observations of surface reflected solar radiation contain informationabout variability in the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Understanding thecauses of variability is important for models that use these data to drive land surface fluxesor for benchmarking prognostic vegetation models. Here we evaluated the interannualvariability in the new 30.5-year long global satellite-derived surface reflectance index data,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index(GIMMS NDVI3g). Pearsons correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression analyseswere applied to quantify the NDVI interannual variability driven by climate anomalies, andto evaluate the effects of potential interference (snow, aerosols and clouds) on the NDVIsignal. We found ecologically plausible strong controls on NDVI variability by antecedent precipitation and current monthly temperature with distinct spatial patterns. Precipitation correlations were strongest for temperate to tropical water limited herbaceous systemswhere in some regions and seasons 40 of the NDVI variance could be explained byprecipitation anomalies. Temperature correlations were strongest in northern mid- to-high-latitudes in the spring and early summer where up to 70 of the NDVI variance was explained by temperature anomalies. We find that, in western and central North America,winter-spring precipitation determines early summer growth while more recent precipitation controls NDVI variability in late summer. In contrast, current or prior wetseason precipitation anomalies were correlated with all months of NDVI in sub-tropical herbaceous vegetation. Snow, aerosols and clouds as well as unexplained phenomena still account for part of the NDVI variance despite corrections. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that GIMMS NDVI3g represents real responses of vegetation to climate variability that are useful for global models.

Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: the roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alfaro, Eric J.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2006-01-01

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

A chironomid-based reconstruction of summer temperatures in NW Iceland since AD 1650

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langdon, P. G.; Caseldine, C. J.; Croudace, I. W.; Jarvis, S.; Wastegård, S.; Crowford, T. C.

2011-05-01

Few studies currently exist that aim to validate a proxy chironomid-temperature reconstruction with instrumental temperature measurements. We used a reconstruction from a chironomid percentage abundance data set to produce quantitative summer temperature estimates since AD 1650 for NW Iceland through a transfer function approach, and validated the record against instrumental temperature measurements from Stykkishólmur in western Iceland. The core was dated through Pb-210, Cs-137 and tephra analyses (Hekla 1693) which produced a well-constrained dating model across the whole study period. Little catchment disturbance, as shown through geochemical (Itrax) and loss-on-ignition data, throughout the period further reinforce the premise that the chironomids were responding to temperature and not other catchment or within-lake variables. Particularly cold phases were identified between AD 1683-1710, AD 1765-1780 and AD 1890-1917, with relative drops in summer temperatures in the order of 1.5-2°C. The timing of these cold phases agree well with other evidence of cooler temperatures, notably increased extent of Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers. Our evidence suggests that the magnitude of summer temperature cooling (1.5-2°C) was enough to force LIA Icelandic glaciers into their maximum Holocene extent, which is in accordance with previous modelling experiments for an Icelandic ice cap (Langjökull).

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

Research on the operation control strategy of the cooling ceiling combined with fresh air system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Tao; Li, Hao

2018-03-01

The cooling ceiling combined with independent fresh air system was built by TRNSYS. And the cooling effects of the air conditioning system of an office in Beijing in a summer typical day were simulated. Based on the “variable temperature” control strategy, the operation strategy of “variable air volume auxiliary adjustment” was put forward. The variation of the indoor temperature, the indoor humidity, the temperature of supplying water and the temperature of returning water were simulated under the two control strategies. The energy consumption of system during the whole summer was compared by utilizing the two control strategies, and the indoor thermal comfort was analyzed. The optimal control strategy was proposed under the condition that the condensation on the surface of the cooling ceiling is not occurred and the indoor thermal comfort is satisfied.

Effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic variables in hair sheep located in an arid region.

PubMed

Macías-Cruz, U; López-Baca, M A; Vicente, R; Mejía, A; Álvarez, F D; Correa-Calderón, A; Meza-Herrera, C A; Mellado, M; Guerra-Liera, J E; Avendaño-Reyes, L

2016-08-01

Twenty Dorper × Pelibuey primiparous ewes were used to evaluate effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (i.e., spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic responses under production conditions in an arid region. Ten ewes experiencing summer heat stress (i.e., temperature = 34.8 ± 4.6 °C; THI = 81.6 ± 3.2 units) and 10 under spring thermoneutral conditions (temperature = 24.2 ± 5.4 °C; THI = 68.0 ± 4.8 units) were corralled together to measure rectal temperature, respiratory frequency, and skin temperatures at 0600, 1200, 1800, and 2400 h on four occasions over 40 days. Blood metabolite and electrolyte concentrations were also measured at 0600 and 1800 hours. Data were analyzed with a completely randomized design using repeated measurements in time. Rectal and skin temperatures, as well as respiratory frequency, were higher (P < 0.01) in summer than spring at all measured days. Blood serum glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides, and chlorine concentrations were lower (P < 0.01) in summer than spring at 0800 and 1800 hours. In contrast, summer heat stress increased (P < 0.01) blood urea and potassium concentrations at 0800 and 1800 hours. Compared with spring thermoneutral conditions, summer heat stress affected the physiological and metabolic status of hair breed ewes in an arid region, which included blood metabolite and electrolyte adjustments to efficiently cope with summer heat stress.

Gravel bar thermal variability and its potential consequences for CO2 evasion from Alpine coldwater streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boodoo, Kyle; Battin, Tom; Schelker, Jakob

2017-04-01

Gravel bars (GB) are ubiquitous in-stream structures with relatively large exposed surfaces, capable of absorbing heat and possibly acting as a heat source to the underlying hyporheic zone (HZ). The distinctive mixing of groundwater and surface water within their HZ largely determines its characteristic physical and biogeochemical properties, including temperature distribution. To study thermal variability within GBs and its possible consequences for CO2 evasion fluxes we analysed high frequency spatio-temporal data for a range of stream and atmospheric physical parameters including the vertical GB temperature, in an Alpine cold water stream (Oberer Seebach, Austria) over the course of a year. We found the vertical temperature profiles within the GB to vary seasonally and with discharge. We extended our study to 13 other gravel bars of varying physical characteristics within the surrounding Ybbs and Erlauf catchments, conducting diurnal spot samplings in summer 2016. Temperatures within the observed permanently wetted hyporheic zone (-56 to -100cm depth below GB surface) of the OSB, were warmer than both end members, surface water and groundwater >18% of the year, particularly during summer. There was a general increase in exceedance within the periodically wetted gravel bar sediment toward the gravel bar surface, further evidencing downward heat transfer to the wetted HZ. Average CO2 flux from the GB was significantly higher than that of streamwater during summer and winter, with significantly higher temperatures and CO2 outgassing rates occurring at the GB tail as compared to streamwater and the head and mid of the GB throughout the year. Higher cumulative (over 6 h) GB seasonal temperatures were associated with increased CO2 evasion fluxes within the OSB, particularly during summer. This enhanced CO2 flux may result from the input of warmer CO2-rich groundwater into the HZ in autumn, while downward heat transfer in summer may enhance GB metabolism and therefore CO2 evasion. Furthermore, catchment CO2 outgassing fluxes significantly exceeded that of the stream, with higher diurnal CO2 outgassing fluxes observed for all 13 GBs within the Ybbs and Erlauf catchments as compared to their respective streams. We found DOC concentration did not significantly correlate to CO2 outgassing. But, vertical temperature gradient as a measure of heat flux to the hyporheic zone explained 55% and 69% of the variability in observed CO2 efflux from the OSB gravel bar (seasonal samplings during summer 2015 - winter 2016) and 11 catchment gravel bars (2 GBs excluded due to equipment malfunction) respectively. These results highlight the effect of temperature on physical and biochemical stream processes, particularly in cold-water streams, due to the occurrence of more frequent and intense warm temperature events, as well as altered flow regimes, likely consequences of climatic change.

Managing fish habitat for flow and temperature extremes

EPA Science Inventory

Summer low flows and stream temperature maxima are key drivers affecting the sustainability of fish populations. Thus, it is critical to understand both the natural templates of spatiotemporal variability, how these are shifting due to anthropogenic influences of development and...

Drivers of Intra-Summer Seasonality and Daily Variability of Coastal Low Cloudiness in California Subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, R. E.; Iacobellis, S.; Gershunov, A.; Williams, P.; Cayan, D. R.

2014-12-01

Summertime low cloud intrusion into the terrestrial west coast of North America impacts human, ecological, and logistical systems. Over a broad region of the West Coast, summer (May - September) coastal low cloudiness (CLC) varies coherently on interannual to interdecadal timescales and has been found to be organized by North Pacific sea surface temperature. Broad-scale studies of low stratiform cloudiness over ocean basins also find that the season of maximum low stratus corresponds to the season of maximum lower tropospheric stability (LTS) or estimated inversion strength. We utilize a 18-summer record of CLC derived from NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 4km resolution over California (CA) to make a more nuanced spatial and temporal examination of intra-summer variability in CLC and its drivers. We find that uniform spatial coherency over CA is not apparent for intra-summer variability in CLC. On monthly to daily timescales, at least two distinct subregions of coastal California (CA) can be identified, where relationships between meteorology and stratus variability appear to change throughout summer in each subregion. While north of Point Conception and offshore the timing of maximum CLC is closely coincident with maximum LTS, in the Southern CA Bight and northern Baja region, maximum CLC occurs up to about a month before maximum LTS. It appears that summertime CLC in this southern region is not as strongly related as in the northern region to LTS. In particular, although the relationship is strong in May and June, starting in July the daily relationship between LTS and CLC in the south begins to deteriorate. Preliminary results indicate a moderate association between decreased CLC in the south and increased precipitable water content above 850 hPa on daily time scales beginning in July. Relationships between daily CLC variability and meteorological variables including winds, inland temperatures, relative humidity, and geopotential heights within and above the marine boundary layer are investigated and dissected by month, CA subregion, and cloud height. The rich spatial detail of the satellite derived CLC record is utilized to examine the propagation in time and space of CLC on synoptic scales within and among subregions.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

The characteristics on spatiotemporal variations of summer heatwaves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qixiang, C.; Wang, L.; Wu, S., II; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Summer heatwaves in China have impacts on forestry, agriculture resource, infrastructure, and heat -related illness and mortality. Based on daily air temperature and relative humidity from the Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, the spatial distribution and trends of the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves in China during 1960-2015 were analyzed. Considering climatic variability, we defined a heatwave as a spell of consecutive days with maximum temperatures exceeding the relative threshold (temperature percentile) .We also consider a indices combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT), and the humidity-corrected apparent temperature (AT) to analyze the health impacts of hot days in summer. This study shows that while the average frequency and duration of heatwaves has an increasing trend since 1990s, the North China Plain has a decreasing trend. This study also shows that the largest CHT values occur in southeast China, and the largest AT values occur in South China.

Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Baek, S. H.; Coats, S.; Williams, P.; Cook, B.; Cook, E. R.; Seager, R.

2017-12-01

The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

New insights into deglacial climate variability in tropical South America from molecular fossil and isotopic indicators in Lake Titicaca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; Fornace, K.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.

2010-12-01

As one of the main centers of tropical convection, the South American Altiplano plays a crucial role in the long-term climate variability of South America. However, both the timing and the drivers of climate variability on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood for this region. New data from molecular fossil (e.g., TEX86) and compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses provide new insights into the climate evolution of this region over the last ~50 kyr. TEX86 temperature reconstructions suggest that the Altiplano warmed as early as 19- 21 kyr ago and proceeded rapidly, consistent with published evidence for an early retreat of LGM glaciers at this time at some locations. The early warming signal observed at Lake Titicaca also appears to be synchronous with continental temperature reconstructions at some sites in tropical Africa, but leads tropical SST changes by several thousands of years. Although the initiation of warming coincided with the peak in southern hemisphere summer insolation, subsequent temperature increases were accompanied by decreases in southern hemisphere insolation, suggesting a northern hemisphere driver for temperature changes in tropical South America. Preliminary D/H ratios from leaf waxes appear to support existing data suggesting that wet conditions prevailed until the late glacial/early Holocene and are broadly consistent with local southern hemisphere summer insolation forcing of the summer monsoon. These data suggest that temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation were decoupled and that both local and extratropical drivers are important for controlling climate change in this region on orbital timescales.

Relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows in New England and implications for summer streamflows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2012-01-01

A period of much below normal streamflow in southern New England during April 2012 raised concerns that a long-term period of drought could evolve through late spring and summer, leading to potential water availability issues. To understand better the relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows, April streamflows from 31 streamflow gages in New England that drain relatively natural watersheds were tested for year-to-year correlation with winter precipitation and air temperature from nearby meteorological sites. Higher winter (December through March) precipitation is associated with higher April streamflows at many gages in northern and central New England. This implies that snowpack accumulation is an important mechanism for winter water storage and subsequently important for spring streamflows in this area. Higher March air temperatures are associated with lower April streamflows at many gages in central and southern New England, likely because the majority of snowmelt runoff occurs before April in warm years. A warm March 2012 contributed to early snowmelt runoff in New England and to much below normal April streamflows in southern New England. However, no strong relation was found between historical April streamflows and late-spring or summer streamflows in New England. The lack of a strong relation implies that summer precipitation, rather than spring conditions, controls summer streamflows.

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Walawender, Jakub P.; Walawender, Ewelina

2018-06-01

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951-2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (T MAX) and minima (T MIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level. WD (CD) is defined as a day with T MAX above the 95th (T MIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed. The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for T MAX as opposed to T MIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies). The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Linkages Between Multiscale Global Sea Surface Temperature Change and Precipitation Variabilities in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Weng, Heng-Yi

1999-01-01

A growing number of evidence indicates that there are coherent patterns of variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly not only at interannual timescales, but also at decadal-to-inter-decadal timescale and beyond. The multi-scale variabilities of SST anomaly have shown great impacts on climate. In this work, we analyze multiple timescales contained in the globally averaged SST anomaly with and their possible relationship with the summer and winter rainfall in the United States over the past four decades.

Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Charles Luce; Brian Staab; Marc Kramer; Seth Wenger; Dan Isaak; Callie McConnell

2014-01-01

Estimating the thermal response of streams to a warming climate is important for prioritizing native fish conservation efforts. While there are plentiful estimates of air temperature responses to climate change, the sensitivity of streams, particularly small headwater streams, to warming temperatures is less well understood. A substantial body of literature correlates...

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Ionides, Edward L; Knepper, Randall G; Stanuszek, William W; Walker, Edward D; Wilson, Mark L

2012-07-01

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

WEATHER RELATED VARIABILITY OF CALORIMETERY PERFORMANCE IN A POORLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CAMERON, M.A.

2007-04-16

Four Antech airbath calorimeters at the Hanford site were studied for three summers and two winters in a location not well-shielded from outside temperature changes. All calorimeters showed significant increases in variability of standard measurements during hot weather. The increased variability is postulated to be due to a low setting of the Peltier cold face temperature, which doesn't allow the instrument to drain heat fast enough in a hot environment. A higher setting of the Peltier cold face might lead to better performance in environments subjected to a broad range of temperatures.

WEATHER RELATED VARIABILITY OF CALORIMETERY PERFORMANCE IN A POORLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CAMERON, M.A.

2007-04-16

Four Antech airbath calorimeters at the Hanford site were studied for three summers and two winters in a location not well-shielded from outside temperature changes. Calorimeters showed significant increases in variability of standard measurements during hot weather. The increased variability is postulated to be due to a low setting of the Peltier cold face temperature, which doesn't allow the instrument to drain heat fast enough in a hot environment. A higher setting of the Peltier cold face might lead to better performance in environments subjected to a broad range of temperatures.

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations

PubMed Central

Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2–34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature. PMID:26157627

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations.

PubMed

Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2-34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature.

The Effect of Seasonal Variability of Atlantic Water on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. V.; Repina, I. A.

2018-01-01

Under the influence of global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (AO) is expected to reduce with a transition toward a seasonal ice cover by the end of this century. A comparison of climate-model predictions with measurements shows that the actual rate of ice cover decay in the AO is higher than the predicted one. This paper argues that the rapid shrinking of the Arctic summer ice cover is due to its increased seasonality, while seasonal oscillations of the Atlantic origin water temperature create favorable conditions for the formation of negative anomalies in the ice-cover area in winter. The basis for this hypothesis is the fundamental possibility of the activation of positive feedback provided by a specific feature of the seasonal cycle of the inflowing Atlantic origin water and the peaking of temperature in the Nansen Basin in midwinter. The recently accelerated reduction in the summer ice cover in the AO leads to an increased accumulation of heat in the upper ocean layer during the summer season. The extra heat content of the upper ocean layer favors prerequisite conditions for winter thermohaline convection and the transfer of heat from the Atlantic water (AW) layer to the ice cover. This, in turn, contributes to further ice thinning and a decrease in ice concentration, accelerated melting in summer, and a greater accumulation of heat in the ocean by the end of the following summer. An important role is played by the seasonal variability of the temperature of AW, which forms on the border between the North European and Arctic basins. The phase of seasonal oscillation changes while the AW is moving through the Nansen Basin. As a result, the timing of temperature peak shifts from summer to winter, additionally contributing to enhanced ice melting in winter. The formulated theoretical concept is substantiated by a simplified mathematical model and comparison with observations.

Recruitment variability of alewives in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, C.P.; Hook, T.O.; Rutherford, E.S.; Mason, D.M.; Croley, T.E.; Szalai, E.B.; Bence, J.R.

2005-01-01

We used a long-term series of observations on alewife Alosa pseudoharengus abundance that was based on fall bottom-trawl catches to assess the importance of various abiotic and biotic factors on alewife recruitment in Lake Michigan during 1962–2002. We first fit a basic Ricker spawner–recruit model to the lakewide biomass estimates of age-3 recruits and the corresponding spawning stock size; we then fit models for all possible combinations of the following four external variables added to the basic model: an index of salmonine predation on an alewife year-class, an index for the spring–summer water temperatures experienced by alewives during their first year in the lake, an index of the severity of the first winter experienced by alewives in the lake, and an index of lake productivity during an alewife year-class's second year in the lake. Based on an information criterion, the best model for alewife recruitment included indices of salmonine predation and spring–summer water temperatures as external variables. Our analysis corroborated the contention that a decline in alewife abundance during the 1970s and early 1980s in Lake Michigan was driven by salmonine predation. Furthermore, our findings indicated that the extraordinarily warm water temperatures during the spring and summer of 1998 probably led to a moderately high recruitment of age-3 alewives in 2001, despite abundant salmonines.

Future hotspots of increasing temperature variability in tropical countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathiany, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

Resolving how climate variability will change in future is crucial to determining how challenging it will be for societies and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. We show that the largest increases in temperature variability - that are robust between state-of-the art climate models - are concentrated in tropical countries. On average, temperature variability increases by 15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa during austral summer, and by up to 10% °C-1 in the Sahel, India and South East Asia. Southern hemisphere changes can be explained by drying soils, whereas shifts in atmospheric structure play a more important role in the Northern hemisphere. These robust regional changes in variability are associated with monthly timescale events, whereas uncertain changes in inter-annual modes of variability make the response of global temperature variability uncertain. Our results suggest that regional changes in temperature variability will create new inequalities in climate change impacts between rich and poor nations.

Lake Stability and Winter-Spring Transitions: Decoupled Ice Duration and Winter Stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, J.; Dana, S.; Neal, B.

2016-12-01

Ice-out is an important historical record demonstrating the impact of warmer air temperatures on lake ice. To better understand regional differences in ice-out trends, to characterize the thermal dynamics of smaller mountain lakes, and to develop baseline data for Maine's high elevations landscapes, sub-hourly water temperatures have been collected in over a dozen of Maine's mountain lakes since 2010. Both surface water and hypolimnion temperature data are recorded year-round, facilitating the determination of ice-in, ice-out, and the duration of winter stratification. The multi-year record from sites across as 250 km transect allows us to compare spatial variability related to lake morphometry and location with inter-annual variability related to local weather. All of the study lakes are large enough to stratify during the summer and mix extensively during the fall. Most years, our data show that the onset of winter stratification is nearly synchronous across the study area and is associated with cold air temperatures. Winter stratification can begin days to weeks before ice-in; the timing of ice-in shows more variability, with both elevation and basin aspect influencing the timing. Ice-out shows both the anticipated spatial and interannual variability; some years there is strong coherence between locations while other years show high variability, possibly a function of differences in snowpack. Ice-out is not always immediately followed by the end of winter stratification, there is sometimes a lag of days to weeks before the lakes mix. If the warm temperatures that lead to ice-out are followed by calm days without significant wind, the surface of some lakes begins to warm quickly maintaining the density difference and prolonging winter stratification. The longer the lag time, the stronger the density difference becomes which may also result in a very brief period of mixing in the spring prior to set-up of summer stratification. This year's El Niño event resulted in very late ice-in, leading to an unusually short ice duration period at most sites. However, ice-out for these sites was within the range observed previous years and there may not be a significant impact on summer water temperatures.

Summer temperature patterns in the headwater streams of the Oregon coast range

Treesearch

Liz Dent; Danielle Vick; Kyle Abraham; Stephen Schoenholtz; Sherri Johnson

2008-01-01

Cool summertime stream temperature is an important component of high-quality aquatic habitat in Oregon coastal streams. Within the Oregon Coast Range, small headwater streams make up a majority of the stream network, yet little information is available on temperature patterns and the longitudinal variability for these streams. In this paper we describe preharvest...

Drivers of River Water Temperature Space-time Variability in Northeast Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Docherty, C.; Milner, A.

2015-12-01

Water temperature plays an important role in stream ecosystem functioning; however, water temperature dynamics in high Arctic environments have received relatively little attention. Given that global climate is predicted to change most at high latitudes, it is vital we broaden our knowledge of space-time variability in Arctic river temperature to understand controlling processes and potential consequences of climate change. To address this gap, our research aims: (1) to characterise seasonal and diel patterns of variability over three summer and two winter seasons with contrasting hydrometeorological conditions, (2) to unravel the key drivers influencing thermal regimes and (3) to place these results in the context of other snow/ glacier-melt dominated environments. Fieldwork was undertaken in July-September 2013, 2014 and 2015 close to the Zackenberg Research Station in Northeast Greenland - an area of continuous permafrost with a mean July air temperature of 6 °C. Five streams were chosen that drain different water source contributions (glacier melt, snow melt, groundwater). Data were collected at 30 minute intervals using micro-dataloggers. Air temperature data were collected within 7km by the Greenland Survey. Weather conditions were highly variable between field campaigns, with 2013 experiencing below average, and 2014 and 2015 above average, snowfall. Summer water temperatures appear to be high in comparison to some Arctic streams in Alaska and in Svalbard. Winter snowfall extent decreases stream water temperature; and water temperature increases with atmospheric exposure time (distance from source) - illustrating the intertwined controls of water and heat fluxes. These Greenland streams are most strongly influenced by snowmelt, but groundwater contributions could increase with a changing climate due to increased active layer thickness, which may result in increased river temperature with implications for aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Sensitivity of Net Ecosystem Exchange to Climate Variability Depends on Plant Functional Type in Boreal Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welp, L. R.; Liu, H.; Randerson, J. T.

2005-12-01

Recent increases in growing season length at high northern latitudes may allow for greater rates of photosynthesis and carbon accumulation during spring and summer. However, warmer air and soil temperatures may also stimulate higher rates of respiration in boreal and arctic ecosystems. The net effect of these different processes on biome-level carbon fluxes remains challenging to predict. We measured carbon fluxes in three interior Alaskan stands for three years (2002-2004) to test the hypothesis that NEE in early and mid successional ecosystems is more sensitive to climate variability than NEE of older, mature ecosystems. The stands represented a chronosequence of recovery after fire with burn events in 1920 (black spruce and moss), 1987 (aspen and willow) and 1999 (grasses and deciduous shrubs). In 2002, the region experienced a cool, moderately wet spring and wet summer. In contrast, 2003 had a warm, dry spring and dry summer. In 2004, the spring was the warmest and wettest of all three years and a severe summer drought followed. Spring air temperature increased during each year of the study with April-May means of 6.4°C in 2002, 7.7°C in 2003 and 9.9°C in 2004. In each stand, warmer spring temperatures increased spring GPP, as has been reported for other northern forests, and also led to increased carbon uptake at the aspen stand with May-June NEE values of -72, -106 and -138 g C m-2. In contrast, May-June NEE at the black spruce stand increased from -94 g C m-2 in 2002 to -110 g C m-2 in 2003, but returned to -96 g C m-2 in 2004 as Re increased in response to warmer soil temperatures during that year. Sensitivity of spring NEE to climate variability was greatest at the intermediate aged aspen stand. Using a simple atmospheric model, we also found that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 was more sensitive to climate variability when forced with fluxes from the aspen stand than from the black spruce stand. During each year, we observed mid-summer depressions of carbon uptake rates at the black spruce stand. Despite the 2004 summer drought, Jul-Aug GPP and Re both increased in 2004, resulting in Jul-Aug NEE values comparable to 2003 (-57 and -59 g C m-2 for the black spruce in 2003 and 2004 respectively and -124 and -120 g C m-2 for the aspen), both of which were less than the wet cool summer of 2002 (-76 g C m-2 for the black spruce and -156 g C m-2 for the aspen). Warm springs and cool summers tended to promote carbon uptake in these ecosystems.

Year-class formation of upper St. Lawrence River northern pike

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, B.M.; Farrell, J.M.; Underwood, H.B.; Smith, S.J.

2007-01-01

Variables associated with year-class formation in upper St. Lawrence River northern pike Esox lucius were examined to explore population trends. A partial least-squares (PLS) regression model (PLS 1) was used to relate a year-class strength index (YCSI; 1974-1997) to explanatory variables associated with spawning and nursery areas (seasonal water level and temperature and their variability, number of ice days, and last day of ice presence). A second model (PLS 2) incorporated four additional ecological variables: potential predators (abundance of double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus and yellow perch Perca flavescens), female northern pike biomass (as a measure of stock-recruitment effects), and total phosphorus (productivity). Trends in adult northern pike catch revealed a decline (1981-2005), and year-class strength was positively related to catch per unit effort (CPUE; R2 = 0.58). The YCSI exceeded the 23-year mean in only 2 of the last 10 years. Cyclic patterns in the YCSI time series (along with strong year-classes every 4-6 years) were apparent, as was a dampening effect of amplitude beginning around 1990. The PLS 1 model explained over 50% of variation in both explanatory variables and the dependent variable, YCSI first-order moving-average residuals. Variables retained (N = 10; Wold's statistic ??? 0.8) included negative YCSI associations with high summer water levels, high variability in spring and fall water levels, and variability in fall water temperature. The YCSI exhibited positive associations with high spring, summer, and fall water temperature, variability in spring temperature, and high winter and spring water level. The PLS 2 model led to positive YCSI associations with phosphorus and yellow perch CPUE and a negative correlation with double-crested cormorant abundance. Environmental variables (water level and temperature) are hypothesized to regulate northern pike YCSI cycles, and dampening in YCSI magnitude may be related to a combination of factors, including wetland habitat changes, reduced nutrient loading, and increased predation by double-crested cormorants. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Assessing Northern Hemisphere Land-Atmosphere Hotspots Using Dynamical Adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, Anna; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-04-01

Understanding the influence of soil moisture on surface air temperature (SAT) is made more challenging by large-scale, internal atmospheric variability present in the midlatitude summer atmosphere. In this study, dynamical adjustment is used to characterize and remove summer SAT variability associated with large-scale circulation patterns in the Community Earth System Model large ensemble (CESM-LE). The adjustment is performed over North America and Europe with two different circulation indicators: sea level pressure (SLP) and 500mb height (Z500). The removal of dynamical "noise" leaves residual SAT variability in the central U.S. and Mediterranean regions identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere interaction (e.g. Koster et al. 2004, Seneviratne et al. 2006). The residual SAT variability "signal" is not clearly related to modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, but is related to local soil moisture, evaporative fraction, and radiation availability. These local relationships suggest that residual SAT variability is representative of the aggregate land surface signal. SLP dynamical adjustment removes ˜15% more variability in the central U.S. hotspot region than Z500 dynamical adjustment. Similar amounts of variability are removed by SLP and Z500 in the Mediterranean region. Differences in SLP and Z500 signal magnitude in the central U.S. are likely due to the modification of SLP by local land surface conditions, while the proximity of European hotspots to the Mediterranean sea mitigates the land surface influence. Variations in the Z500 field more closely resemble large-scale midlatitude circulation patterns and therefore Z500 may be a more suitable circulation indicator for summer dynamical adjustment. Changes in the residual SAT variability signal under increased greenhouse gas forcing will also be explored.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the observed surface and subsurface temperature variations from early spring to summer during the years 2014 and 2015 over the Indo-Pacific region. This study highlights the importance of maintaining observing systems such as ARGO for accurate monsoon forecast.

Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xiao, Ziniu

2013-10-01

This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV inmore » 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.« less

Observations of the summer Red Sea circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

2007-06-01

Aiming at exploring and understanding the summer circulation in the Red Sea, a cruise was conducted in the basin during the summer of 2001 involving hydrographic, meteorological, and direct current observations. The most prominent feature, characteristic of the summer circulation and exchange with the Indian Ocean, is a temperature, salinity, and oxygen minimum located around a depth of 75 m at the southern end of the basin, associated with Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water inflowing from the Gulf of Aden during the summer season as an intruding subsurface layer. Stirring and mixing with ambient waters lead to marked increases in temperature (from 16.5 to almost 33°C) and salinity (from 35.7 to more than 38 psu) in this layer by the time it reaches midbasin. The observed circulation presents a very vigorous pattern with strong variability and intense features that extend the width of the basin. A permanent cyclone, detected in the northern Red Sea, verifies previous observations and modeling studies, while in the central sector of the basin a series of very strong anticyclones were observed with maximum velocities exceeding 1 m/s. The three-layer flow pattern, representative of the summer exchange between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is observed in the strait of Bab el Mandeb. In the southern part of the basin the layer flow is characterized by strong banking of the inflows and outflows against the coasts. Both surface and intermediate water masses involved in the summer Red Sea circulation present prominent spatial variability in their characteristics, indicating that the eddy field and mixing processes play an important role in the summer Red Sea circulation.

Seasonal climate variability in Medieval Europe (1000 to 1499)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, C.

2009-04-01

In his fundamental work on medieval climate Alexandre (1987) highlighted the significance of dealing with contemporary sources. Recently, long series of temperature indices for "summer" and "winter" were set up by Shabalova and van Engelen (2003) for the Low Countries, but the time resolution is not strictly seasonal. This paper worked out within the EU 6th Framework Project "Millennium" draws on critically reviewed documentary evidence from a spatially extensive area of Western and Central Europe (basically England, France, BENELUX, Western Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Hungary and todays Czech Republic. The narrative evidence is complemented with dendro-climatic series from the Alps (Büntgen et al. 2006). Each "climate observation" is georeferenced which allows producing spatial displays of the data for selected spaces and time-frames. The spatial distribution of the information charts can be used as a tool for the climatological verification of the underlying data. Reconstructions for winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) are presented in the form of time series and charts. Cold winters were frequent from 1205 to 1235 i.e. in the "Medieval Warm Period" and in the Little Ice Age (1306-1330; 1390-1470). Dry and warm summers prevailed in Western and Central Europe in the first half of the 13th century. During the Little Ice Age cold-wet summers (triggered by volcanic explosions in the tropics) were more frequent, though summer climate remained highly variable. Results are discussed with regard to the "Greenhouse Debate" and the relationship to glacier fluctuations in the Alps is explored. References -Alexandre, Pierre, 1987: Le Climat en Europe au Moyen Age. Contribution à l'histoire des variations climatiques de 1000 à 1425. Paris. -Büntgen, Ulf et al. 2006: Summer Temperature Variation in the European Alps, AD. 755-2004, J. of Climate 19 5606-5623. - Pfister, Christian et al. 1998: Winter air temperature variations in Central Europe during the Early and Highe Middle Ages. The Holocene 8/1: 547-564. -Rohr, Christian, 2007: Extreme Naturereignisse im Ostalpenraum, Köln. -Shabalova, Marina ; van Engelen, Aryan, 2003: Evaluation of Reconstruction of Winter and Summer Temperatures in the Low Countries, AD 764-1998, Clim. Change 58 1-2, 219-242.

Late Holocene SST and primary productivity variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea as a recorder for winter monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böll, Anna; Gaye, Birgit; Lückge, Andreas

2014-05-01

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Strong south-westerly winds during the summer monsoon induce upwelling of nutrient rich waters along the coast off Somalia, Oman and southwest India, which result in high rates of primary production. In the northeastern Arabian Sea off Pakistan on the other hand, primary production and sea surface temperatures are linked to northeast monsoonal winds that cool the sea surface and drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity during the winter season. In this study, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin to establish the first high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene. Over the last 2400 years reconstructed SST in the northeastern Arabian Sea decreased whereas productivity increased, imaging a long-term trend of northeast monsoon strengthening in response to insolation-induced southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The comparison of our winter monsoon record with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that summer and winter monsoon strength was essentially anti-correlated over the late Holocene throughout the Asian monsoon system. In addition, SST variations recorded off Pakistan match very well with Northern Hemisphere temperature records supporting the growing body of evidence that Asian climate is linked to Northern Hemisphere climate change. It reveals a consistent pattern of increased summer monsoon activity in the northeastern Arabian Sea during northern hemispheric warm periods (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period) and strengthened winter monsoon activity during hemispheric colder periods (Little Ice Age).

Effects of summer heat stress on physiological variables, ovulation and progesterone secretion in Pelibuey ewes under natural outdoor conditions in an arid region.

PubMed

Macías-Cruz, Ulises; Gastélum, Miguel A; Álvarez, Francisco D; Correa, Abelardo; Díaz, Raúl; Meza-Herrera, César A; Mellado, Miguel; Avendaño-Reyes, Leonel

2016-03-01

Ten non-lactating multiparous Pelibuey breed ewes were housed in a corral to evaluate the effects of summer thermal stress on physiologic variables, estrous behavior, ovulation and corpus luteum functionality under natural conditions of an arid region. In summer and autumn, daily estrous detection with a ram fitted with an apron and blood sample collections were performed during two natural estrous cycles. An environment of heat stress was detected in summer and thermoneutral in autumn. Rectal temperature and respiratory frequency were greater (P < 0.01) in summer than in autumn during the morning and afternoon. Season did not affect (P > 0.05) live weight, body condition, length of estrous cycle or percentage of ewes in estrous and ovulating. Compared with autumn, serum progesterone concentrations in summer decreased (P < 0.05) between days 8 and 14 of the estrous cycle. It is concluded that under outdoor conditions of arid regions, while estrous and ovulatory activities of Pelibuey ewes were not affected by summer thermal stress, the corpus luteum functionality was decreased. © 2015 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Paleoclimate of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period Reconstructed from Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Limpet Shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Surge, D. M.; Mithen, S.

2010-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions from different regions have reported abrupt climate change around 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. The timing of this abrupt climate change is close to the boundary between the Neoglacial (3300-2500 cal yr B.P.) and Roman Warm Period (2500-1600 cal yr B.P.). However, temporal and spatial variability observed in this climate change event raises controversies about the forcing factors driving it and why it has regional variability. Scotland lies in the North Atlantic Ocean, which responds sensitively to climate change. Therefore, even in the case of subtle climate change, the climate variability of Scotland should be able to capture such change. In this study, we expect that paleoclimate reconstructions of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period in Scotland will help improve our knowledge of abrupt climate change at 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. Archaeological shell deposits provide a rich source of climate proxy data preserved as oxygen isotope ratios in shell carbonate. Croig Cave on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, contains a nearly continuous accumulation of shells ranging from 800 BC-500 AD and possibly older. This range represents a broad chronology of human use from the late Bronze to Iron Ages and spans the Neoglacial through Roman Warm Period climate episodes. Here, we present seasonal temperature variability of the two climate episodes based on oxygen isotope ratios of ten limpet shells (Patella vulgata) from Croig Cave. Based on AMS dating (2 sigma calibration), the oldest shell was from 3480-3330 cal yr B.P. and the youngest shell was from 2060-1870 cal yr B.P. Our results indicated that estimated temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets average 6.44±0.56°C for coldest winters and 15.06±0.67°C for warmest summers. For the Roman Warm Period limpets, the average is 5.68±0.36°C for coldest winters and 14.14±0.81°C for warmest summers. We compared our estimated temperatures to the present sea surface temperature (SST) from 1961 to 1990 near our study area, which averages 7.40±0.35°C for coldest month and 14.12±0.54°C for warmest month. Our reconstructed temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets showed slightly (0-1°C) colder winters, similar or warmer (1-1.8°C) summers compared to present SST record. One shell captured a year without a summer likely resulting from an eruption of the Katla volcanic system in Iceland. The reconstructed temperatures from the Roman Warm Period limpets showed colder winters (up to 2°C) and similar summers compared with present SST record. Our findings represent the first insights of SST variability at seasonal time scales for these two climate episodes in northwest Scotland.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachsel, M.; Rehfeld, K.; Telford, R.; Laepple, T.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution.

North Atlantic summers have warmed more than winters since 1353, and the response of marine zooplankton.

PubMed

Kamenos, Nicholas A

2010-12-28

Modeling and measurements show that Atlantic marine temperatures are rising; however, the low temporal resolution of models and restricted spatial resolution of measurements (i) mask regional details critical for determining the rate and extent of climate variability, and (ii) prevent robust determination of climatic impacts on marine ecosystems. To address both issues for the North East Atlantic, a fortnightly resolution marine climate record from 1353-2006 was constructed for shallow inshore waters and compared to changes in marine zooplankton abundance. For the first time summer marine temperatures are shown to have increased nearly twice as much as winter temperatures since 1353. Additional climatic instability began in 1700 characterized by ∼5-65 year climate oscillations that appear to be a recent phenomenon. Enhanced summer-specific warming reduced the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a key food item of cod, and led to significantly lower projected abundances by 2040 than at present. The faster increase of summer marine temperatures has implications for climate projections and affects abundance, and thus biomass, near the base of the marine food web with potentially significant feedback effects for marine food security.

Diel Surface Temperature Range Scales with Lake Size

PubMed Central

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Jones, Ian D.; Maberly, Stephen C.; French, Jon R.; Livingstone, David M.; Monteith, Donald T.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Andersen, Mikkel R.; Battarbee, Richard W.; DeGasperi, Curtis L.; Evans, Christopher D.; de Eyto, Elvira; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun; Hamilton, David P.; Kernan, Martin; Krokowski, Jan; Rimmer, Alon; Rose, Kevin C.; Rusak, James A.; Ryves, David B.; Scott, Daniel R.; Shilland, Ewan M.; Smyth, Robyn L.; Staehr, Peter A.; Thomas, Rhian; Waldron, Susan; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

2016-01-01

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored. PMID:27023200

Seasonal surface circulation, temperature, and salinity in Prince William Sound, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musgrave, David L.; Halverson, Mark J.; Scott Pegau, W.

2013-02-01

Salinity, temperature, and depth profiles from 1973 to 2010 were used to construct a seasonal climatology of surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth (MLD), potential energy of mixing, and surface geostrophic circulation in Prince William Sound (PWS) and the adjacent Gulf of Alaska. Surface salinity is greatest in winter and least in summer due to the influence of increased freshwater runoff in summer. It is generally lowest in the northwest and highest in the Gulf of Alaska. The surface temperature is lowest in the winter and highest in the summer when surface heating is greatest, with little spatial variability across the Sound. The MLD is deepest in winter (9-27 m) and shallowest in summer (4-5 m). The work by winds was estimated from meteorological buoy data in central PWS and compared to the potential energy of mixing of the upper water column. The potential depth to which winds mix the upper water column was generally consistent with the MLD. The surface geostrophic circulation in the central Sound has: a southerly flow in the western central Sound in the winter; a closed, weak anticyclonic cell in spring; a closed, cyclonic cell in the summer; an open, cyclonic circulation in the fall. In the western passages, a southerly flow occurs in spring, summer, and fall. These results have important implications for oil spill response in PWS, the use of oil dispersants, and for comparison to numerical studies.

NOM degradation during river infiltration: effects of the climate variables temperature and discharge.

PubMed

Diem, Samuel; Rudolf von Rohr, Matthias; Hering, Janet G; Kohler, Hans-Peter E; Schirmer, Mario; von Gunten, Urs

2013-11-01

Most peri-alpine shallow aquifers fed by rivers are oxic and the drinking water derived by riverbank filtration is generally of excellent quality. However, observations during past heat waves suggest that water quality may be affected by climate change due to effects on redox processes such as aerobic respiration, denitrification, reductive dissolution of manganese(III/IV)- and iron(III)(hydr)oxides that occur during river infiltration. To assess the dependence of these redox processes on the climate-related variables temperature and discharge, we performed periodic and targeted (summer and winter) field sampling campaigns at the Thur River, Switzerland, and laboratory column experiments simulating the field conditions. Typical summer and winter field conditions could be successfully simulated by the column experiments. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) was found not to be a major electron donor for aerobic respiration in summer and the DOM consumption did not reveal a significant correlation with temperature and discharge. It is hypothesized that under summer conditions, organic matter associated with the aquifer material (particulate organic matter, POM) is responsible for most of the consumption of dissolved oxygen (DO), which was the most important electron acceptor in both the field and the column system. For typical summer conditions at temperatures >20 °C, complete depletion of DO was observed in the column system and in a piezometer located only a few metres from the river. Both in the field system and the column experiments, nitrate acted as a redox buffer preventing the release of manganese(II) and iron(II). For periodic field observations over five years, DO consumption showed a pronounced temperature dependence (correlation coefficient r = 0.74) and therefore a seasonal pattern, which seemed to be mostly explained by the temperature dependence of the calculated POM consumption (r = 0.7). The river discharge was found to be highly and positively correlated with DO consumption (r = 0.85), suggesting an enhanced POM input during flood events. This high correlation could only be observed for the low-temperature range (T < 15 °C). For temperatures >15 °C, DO consumption was already high (almost complete) and the impact of discharge could not be resolved. Based on our results, we estimate the risk for similar river-infiltration systems to release manganese(II) and iron(II) to be low during future average summer conditions. However, long-lasting heat waves might lead to a consumption of the nitrate buffer, inducing a mobilization of manganese and iron. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palat Rao, Mukund; Davi, Nicole K.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Skees, Jerry; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Leland, Caroline; Lyon, Bradfield; Wang, Shih-Yu; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa

2015-07-01

Recent incidences of mass livestock mortality, known as dzud, have called into question the sustainability of pastoral nomadic herding, the cornerstone of Mongolian culture. A total of 20 million head of livestock perished in the mortality events of 2000-2002, and 2009-2010. To mitigate the effects of such events on the lives of herders, international agencies such as the World Bank are taking increasing interest in developing tailored market-based solutions like index-insurance. Their ultimate success depends on understanding the historical context and underlying causes of mortality. In this paper we examine mortality in 21 Mongolian aimags (provinces) between 1955 and 2013 in order to explain its density independent cause(s) related to climate variability. We show that livestock mortality is most strongly linked to winter (November-February) temperatures, with incidences of mass mortality being most likely to occur because of an anomalously cold winter. Additionally, we find prior summer (July-September) drought and precipitation deficit to be important triggers for mortality that intensifies the effect of upcoming winter temperatures on livestock. Our density independent mortality model based on winter temperature, summer drought, summer precipitation, and summer potential evaporanspiration explains 48.4% of the total variability in the mortality dataset. The Mongolian index based livestock insurance program uses a threshold of 6% mortality to trigger payouts. We find that on average for Mongolia, the probability of exceedance of 6% mortality in any given year is 26% over the 59 year period between 1955 and 2013.

Seasonal variation, weather and behavior in day-care children: a multilevel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

2013-11-01

This study analyzes the effect of weather variables, such as solar radiation, indoor and outdoor air temperature, relative humidity and time spent outdoor, on the behavior of 2-year-old children and their affects across different seasons: winter, spring and summer. Participants were a group of 61 children (33 males and 28 females) attending four day-care centers in Florence (Central Italy). Mean age of children at the beginning of the study was 24.1 months ( SD = 3.6). We used multilevel linear analyses to account for the hierarchical structure of our data. The study analyzed the following behavioral variables: Activity Level, Attentional Focusing, Frustration, and Aggression. Results showed a different impact of some weather variables on children’s behavior across seasons, indicating that the weather variable that affects children’s behavior is usually the one that shows extreme values during the studied seasons, such as air temperature and relative humidity in winter and summer. Studying children and their reactions to weather conditions could have potentially wide-reaching implications for parenting and teaching practices, as well as for researchers studying social relationships development.

Temperature variability caused by internal tides in the coral reef ecosystem of Hanauma bay, Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katharine A.; Rocheleau, Greg; Merrifield, Mark A.; Jaramillo, Sergio; Pawlak, Geno

2016-03-01

Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve is a shallow bay (<30 m depth) on the island of O'ahu, Hawai'i, offshore of which tidal flow over deep ridge topography (500-1000 m depth) is known to generate semidiurnal frequency internal tides. A field experiment was conducted during March to June 2009 to determine whether the deep internal tides propagate shoreward to influence variability in temperature and currents in the bay environment. Temperature observations in the bay exhibit a diurnal cycle that is strongest near the surface (upper 10 m) and is associated with solar heating. In early summer (May-June), as the upper mixed layer warms and a shallow seasonal thermocline develops, temperature fluctuations in deeper bay waters (>15 m depth) become dominated by large semidiurnal variations (up to 2.7 °C) that are attributed to the internal tide. These temperature drops caused by the internal tide occur consistently twice a day under summer stratification at depths as shallow as 15 m, while smaller temperature drops (up to 1.8 °C) occur occasionally at 5 m. Although semidiurnal band temperatures vary seasonally, semidiurnal band currents exhibit similar magnitudes in spring and summer. This suggests that the weak temperature fluctuations in spring are due to the bay residing entirely in the upper mixed layer at this time of year, while internal tide energy continues to influence currents. Observations made along a cross-shore/vertical transect at the center of the bay with an autonomous underwater vehicle highlight the structure of cold intrusions that fill a large portion of the bay as well as the relationship between temperature, salinity, chlorophyll, and backscatter. Near-bottom, advective heat flux estimates at the mouth of the bay indicate that the internal tide tends to advect cold water into the bay primarily on the northeast side of the bay entrance, with cold water outflow on the opposite side. The observations highlight the role of the internal tide along with seasonal changes in stratification in temperature variability in shallow ecosystems, particularly those close to generation sites.

Middle Holocene thermal maximum in eastern Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, D. S.; Bartlein, P. J.

2015-12-01

A new systematic review of diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records (Kaufman et al., Quat. Sci. Rev., in revision) has clarified the primary multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas). Composite time series from midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies. The paleo observations are also compared with recently published simulations (Bartlein et al., Clim. Past Discuss., 2015) that used a regional climate model to simulate the effects of global and regional-scale forcings at 11 and 6 ka. During the early Holocene (11.5-8 ka), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, the newly compiled paleo evidence (mostly sensitive to summer conditions) indicates that temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present, although the overall lowest average temperatures occurred during the earliest Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8-4 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. The paleo evidence for low and variable temperatures during the early Holocene contrasts with more uniformly high temperatures during the middle Holocene and agrees with the climate simulations, which show that temperature in eastern Beringia was on average lower at 11 ka and higher at 6 ka than at present (pre-industrial). Low temperatures during the early Holocene can be attributed in part to the summer chilling caused by flooding the continental shelves, whereas the mid-Holocene thermal maximum was likely driven by the loss of the Laurentide ice sheet, rise in greenhouse gases, higher-than-present summer insolation, and expansion of forest over tundra.

The Estrada Real project and endemic diseases: the case of schistosomiasis, geoprocessing and tourism.

PubMed

Carvalho, Omar S; Scholte, Ronaldo G C; Guimarães, Ricardo J P S; Freitas, Corina C; Drummond, Sandra C; Amaral, Ronaldo S; Dutra, Luciano V; Oliveira, Guilherme; Massara, Cristiano L; Enk, Martin J

2010-07-01

Geographical Information System (GIS) is a tool that has recently been applied to better understand spatial disease distributions. Using meteorological, social, sanitation, mollusc distribution data and remote sensing variables, this study aimed to further develop the GIS technology by creating a model for the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and to apply this model to an area with rural tourism in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais (MG). The Estrada Real, covering about 1,400 km, is the largest and most important Brazilian tourism project, involving 163 cities in MG with different schistosomiasis prevalence rates. The model with three variables showed a R(2) = 0.34, with a standard deviation of risk estimated adequate for public health needs. The main variables selected for modelling were summer vegetation, summer minimal temperature and winter minimal temperature. The results confirmed the importance of Remote Sensing data and the valuable contribution of GIS in identifying priority areas for intervention in tourism regions which are endemic to schistosomiasis.

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Richard J.; Jones, Julie M.; Hanna, Edward; Scaife, Adam A.; Erdélyi, Róbert

2017-06-01

The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research.

Climate Change Impact Assessment in Pacific North West Using Copula based Coupling of Temperature and Precipitation variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Y.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

The multi downscaled-scenario products allow us to better assess the uncertainty of the changes/variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Joint Probability distribution functions (PDFs), of both the climatic variables, might help better understand the interdependence of the two, and thus in-turn help in accessing the future with confidence. Using the joint distribution of temperature and precipitation is also of significant importance in hydrological applications and climate change studies. In the present study, we have used multi-modelled statistically downscaled-scenario ensemble of precipitation and temperature variables using 2 different statistically downscaled climate dataset. The datasets used are, 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled products from CMIP5 daily dataset, namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, leading to 2 ensemble time series from 20 GCM products. Thereafter the ensemble PDFs of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for summer, winter, and yearly periods for all the 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Eventually, Copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables enabling users to model the joint behavior of the variables with any level of correlation and dependency. Moreover, the probabilistic distribution helps remove the limitations on marginal distributions of variables in question. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change trends of the joint precipitation and temperature in the current and future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. Results have indicated towards varied change trends of the joint distribution of, summer, winter, and yearly time scale, respectively in all 10 sub-basins. Probabilities of changes, as estimated by the joint precipitation and temperature, will provide useful information/insights for hydrological and climate change predictions.

Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

2015-12-01

Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

Oxygen and carbon stable isotopes in coast redwood tree rings respond to spring and summer climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnstone, James A.; Roden, John S.; Dawson, Todd E.

2013-12-01

variability in the oxygen and carbon isotope composition of tree ring cellulose was investigated in coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) from three sites in coastal Northern California. Middle and late wood samples from annual tree rings were compared to regional climate indices and gridded ocean-atmosphere fields for the years 1952-2003. The strongest climate-isotope relationship (r = 0.72) was found with summer (June-September) daily maximum temperature and middle wood δ13, which also responds positively to coastal sea surface temperature and negatively to summer low cloud frequency. Late wood δ18O reflects a balance between 18O-enriched summer fog drip and depleted summer rainwater, while a combined analysis of late wood δ18O and δ13C revealed sensitivity to the sign of summer precipitation anomalies. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of regional summer climate indices and coast redwood stable isotopes identified multivariate isotopic responses to summer fog and drought that correspond to atmospheric circulation anomalies over the NE Pacific and NW U.S. The presence of regional climate signals in coast redwood stable isotope composition, consistent with known mechanistic processes and prior studies, offers the potential for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions of the California current system from this long-lived tree species.

Teasing apart the effects of natural and constructed green infrastructure on spatiotemporal flow and temperature habitat templates for fish communities

EPA Science Inventory

Summer low flows and stream temperature maxima are key drivers affecting the sustainability of fish populations. Thus, it is critical to understand both the natural templates of spatiotemporal variability, how these are shifting due to anthropogenic influences of development and...

Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, Margot; Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien; Somot, Samuel; Alias, Antoinette; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Dubuisson, Brigitte

2017-07-01

This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.

An inter-decadal increase in summer sea level pressure over the Mongolian region around the early 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haiyan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Li, Xiuzhen; Chen, Ruidan

2018-05-01

The East Asian summer monsoon is affected by processes in the mid-high latitudes in addition to various tropical and subtropical systems. The present study investigates the summer sea level pressure (SLP) variability over northern East Asia (NEA) and emphasizes the closed active center over the Mongolian region. It is found that the seasonal mean Mongolian SLP (MSLP) anomaly is closely connected with the variability of summertime regional synoptic extra-tropical cyclones on longer time scales. A significant inter-decadal increase in the MSLP around the early 1990s has been detected, which is accompanied by a weakening in the activity of regional extra-tropical cyclones. Recent warming over NEA may have a contribution to the inter-decadal change, which features evidently meridional inhomogeneity around 45°N. The inhomogeneous air temperature anomaly distribution results in decreased vertical wind shear, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity over the Mongolian region, and thus inactive regional cyclones and increased MSLP in the latter decade. The associated temperature anomaly distribution may be partly attributed to regional inhomogeneity in cloud and radiation anomalies, and it is further maintained by two positive feedback mechanisms associated with atmospheric internal processes: one via adiabatic heating and the other via horizontal temperature advection.

Factors influencing the atmospheric concentrations of PCBs at an abandoned e-waste recycling site in South China.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Wu, Xiaowei; Hou, Minmin; Zhao, Hongxia; Chen, Ruize; Luo, Chunling; Zhang, Gan

2017-02-01

The diurnal atmospheric concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were investigated at an abandoned e-waste recycling site in South China during winter and summer. Total PCB concentrations during winter and summer were 27.6-212 and 368-1704pg/m 3 in the particulate phase and 270-697 and 3000-15,500pg/m 3 in the gaseous phase, respectively. Both gaseous and particulate PCB concentrations and compositions exhibited significant difference between winter and summer samples, but no diurnal variations during the measurement period. The correlation analysis between PCB concentrations and meteorological conditions, including atmospheric temperature, humidity, and mixing layer height, suggested that the seasonal variability of atmospheric PCB concentrations was strongly temperature-dependent, while the diurnal variability was probably source-dependent. The temperature-driven variations can also be proved by the significant linear correlation between ln P and 1/T in the Clausius-Clapeyron plot. Although government has implemented controls to reduce e-waste pollution, both the relatively high concentrations of PCBs and the diurnal variation in the air suggested that emissions from occasional e-waste recycling activities may still exist in this recycling area. These results underline the importance of continuing e-waste recycling site management long after abandonment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A dynamic growth model of macroalgae: Application in an estuary recovering from treated wastewater and earthquake-driven eutrophication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Jeffrey S.; Barr, Neill G.; Scheuer, Kristin; Schiel, David R.; Zeldis, John

2014-07-01

A dynamic growth model of macroalgae was developed to predict growth of the green macroalga Ulva sp. in response to changes in environmental variables. The model is based on common physiological behaviour of macroalgae and hence has general applicability to macroalgae. Three state variables (nitrogen, carbon and phosphorus) were used to describe physiological processes and functional differences between nutrient and carbon uptakes. Carbon uptake is modelled as a function of temperature, light, algal internal state and water current, while nutrient uptake depends on internal state, temperature and environmental nutrient level. Growth can only occur when nutrients in the environment and in the internal storage pools (N-quota and P-quota) reach threshold levels. Physiological rates follow the Arrhenius relationship and increase exponentially with increasing temperature within the temperature tolerance range of a species. When parameterised and applied to Ulva sp. in the eutrophic Avon-Heathcote Estuary, New Zealand, the model generally reproduced field observations of Ulva sp. growth and abundance. Growth followed a clear seasonal cycle with biomass increasing from early-middle summer, reaching peak values in early autumn and then decreasing. Conversely, N-quotient levels were maximal during the winter months, declining during summer peak growth. These seasonal patterns were collectively driven by temperature, light intensity and nutrients. The model captured the N-quota and growth responses of Ulva sp. to the N-reduction arising from diversion of treated wastewater from the Avon-Heathcote Estuary to an offshore outfall in 2010, and of raw sewage N-discharges resulting from wastewater infrastructure damage caused by the Canterbury earthquakes in 2011. Sensitivity analyses revealed that temperature-related parameters and maximum uptake rate of C were among the most sensitive parameters in predicting biomass. In addition, the earthquake-derived changes in reduction of immersion time and decrease in the start biomass prior to summer blooms were shown to drive considerable declines in summer growth and biomass of Ulva sp.

Association between summer temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children: An ecological analysis.

PubMed

Yokoya, Masana; Higuchi, Yukito

2016-11-01

Several experimental studies reported evidence of a negative energy balance at higher temperatures. However, corresponding weight loss has not been noted in clinical practice. This study investigated the geographical association between outdoor temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. An ecological analysis was conducted using prefecture-level data on the mean body weight of Japanese adolescents and children over a 25-year period and Japanese mesh (regional) climatic data on the mean annual temperature, mean daily maximum temperature in August, and mean daily minimum temperature in January were also analyzed. Correlation analysis uncovered a stronger association between weight and the mean daily maximum temperature in August than with other climatic variables. Moreover, multiple regression analysis indicated that height and the mean daily maximum temperature in August were statistically significant predictors of weight. This suggests that geographical differences in weight in Japanese adolescents and children can be explained by the complementary relationship between height-associated weight gain and weight loss caused by summer heat. Summer temperatures may reduce the proportion of children who are overweight and contribute to geographical differences in body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:789-795, 2016. © 2016Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Clay mineralogical and geochemical proxies of the East Asian summer monsoon evolution in the South China Sea during Late Quaternary

PubMed Central

Chen, Quan; Liu, Zhifei; Kissel, Catherine

2017-01-01

The East Asian summer monsoon controls the climatic regime of an extended region through temperature and precipitation changes. As the East Asian summer monsoon is primarily driven by the northern hemisphere summer insolation, such meteorological variables are expected to significantly change on the orbital timescale, influencing the composition of terrestrial sediments in terms of both mineralogy and geochemistry. Here we present clay mineralogy and major element composition of Core MD12-3432 retrieved from the northern South China Sea, and we investigate their relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon evolution over the last 400 ka. The variability of smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio presents a predominant precession periodicity, synchronous with the northern hemisphere summer insolation changes and therefore with that of the East Asian summer monsoon. Variations in K2O/Al2O3 are characterized by eccentricity cycles, increasing during interglacials when the East Asian summer monsoon is enhanced. Based on the knowledge of sediment provenances, we suggest that these two proxies in the South China Sea are linked to the East Asian summer monsoon evolution with different mechanisms, which are (1) contemporaneous chemical weathering intensity in Luzon for smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio and (2) river denudation intensity for K2O/Al2O3 ratio of bulk sediment. PMID:28176842

Clay mineralogical and geochemical proxies of the East Asian summer monsoon evolution in the South China Sea during Late Quaternary.

PubMed

Chen, Quan; Liu, Zhifei; Kissel, Catherine

2017-02-08

The East Asian summer monsoon controls the climatic regime of an extended region through temperature and precipitation changes. As the East Asian summer monsoon is primarily driven by the northern hemisphere summer insolation, such meteorological variables are expected to significantly change on the orbital timescale, influencing the composition of terrestrial sediments in terms of both mineralogy and geochemistry. Here we present clay mineralogy and major element composition of Core MD12-3432 retrieved from the northern South China Sea, and we investigate their relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon evolution over the last 400 ka. The variability of smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio presents a predominant precession periodicity, synchronous with the northern hemisphere summer insolation changes and therefore with that of the East Asian summer monsoon. Variations in K 2 O/Al 2 O 3 are characterized by eccentricity cycles, increasing during interglacials when the East Asian summer monsoon is enhanced. Based on the knowledge of sediment provenances, we suggest that these two proxies in the South China Sea are linked to the East Asian summer monsoon evolution with different mechanisms, which are (1) contemporaneous chemical weathering intensity in Luzon for smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio and (2) river denudation intensity for K 2 O/Al 2 O 3 ratio of bulk sediment.

Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land.

PubMed

Metslaid, Sandra; Stanturf, John A; Hordo, Maris; Korjus, Henn; Laarmann, Diana; Kiviste, Andres

2016-07-01

Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson's correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June-July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Northwest U.S. and later Spring-Summer Droughts/Floods over Southern Plains and Adjacent Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Diallo, I.; Li, W.; Neelin, J. D.; Chu, P. C.; Vasic, R.; Zhu, Y.; LI, Q.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recurrent droughts/floods are high-impact meteorological events. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST). However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to fully explain the extreme climate events. Remote effects of large-scale spring land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) variability in Northwest U.S. over the Rocky Mountain area on later spring-summer droughts/floods over the Southern Plains and adjacent areas, however, have been largely ignored. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over Northwest U.S. is closely associated with summer precipitation anomalies in Southern Plains: negative/positive spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the Southern Plains. The global and regional weather forecast models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship. The modeling study suggests that the observed LST and SUBT anomalies produced about 29% and 31% of observed May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 precipitation deficit, respectively. The analyses discovered that the LST/SUBT's downstream effects are associated with a large-scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. For comparison, the SST effect was also tested and produced about 31% and 45% of the May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 drought conditions, respectively. This study suggests that consideration of both SST and LST/SUBT anomalies are able to explain a substantial amount of variance in precipitation at sub-seasonal scale and inclusion of the LST/SUBT effect is essential to make reliable sub-seasonal and seasonal North American drought/flood predictions.

Summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in southeastern Tajikistan: A modeling approach.

PubMed

Salas, Eric Ariel L; Valdez, Raul; Michel, Stefan

2017-11-01

We modeled summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in the Pamir Mountains in southeastern Tajikistan using these statistical algorithms: Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. Using sheep occurrence data collected from 2009 to 2015 and a set of selected habitat predictors, we produced summer and winter habitat suitability maps and determined the important habitat suitability predictors for both seasons. Our results demonstrated that argali selected proximity to riparian areas and greenness as the two most relevant variables for summer, and the degree of slope (gentler slopes between 0° to 20°) and Landsat temperature band for winter. The terrain roughness was also among the most important variables in summer and winter models. Aspect was only significant for winter habitat, with argali preferring south-facing mountain slopes. We evaluated various measures of model performance such as the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Comparing the five algorithms, the AUC scored highest for Boosted Regression Tree in summer (AUC = 0.94) and winter model runs (AUC = 0.94). In contrast, Random Forest underperformed in both model runs.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing mechanisms, which are very helpful for calibration of paleoclimate models and prediction of future precipitation changes in East Asia in the scenario of global warming.

Modeling nearshore-offshore exchange in Lake Superior

PubMed Central

Tokos, Kathy S.; Matsumoto, Katsumi

2018-01-01

Lake Superior′s ecosystem includes distinct nearshore and offshore food webs linked by hydrodynamic processes that transport water and tracers along and across shore. The scales over which these processes occur and their sensitivity to increasing summer surface temperatures are not well understood. This study investigated horizontal mixing between nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Superior over the 10-year period from 2003 to 2012 using a realistically forced three-dimensional numerical model and virtual tracers. An age tracer was used to characterize the time scales of horizontal mixing between nearshore areas of the lake where water depth is less than 100 m and deeper areas. The age of water in nearshore areas increased and decreased in an annual cycle corresponding to the lake′s dimictic cycle of vertical mixing and stratification. Interannual variability of mixing in the isothermal period was significantly correlated to average springtime wind speed, whereas variability during the stratified season was correlated to the average summer surface temperature. Dispersal of a passive tracer released from nine locations around the model lake’s perimeter was more extensive in late summer when stratification was established lakewide than in early summer. The distribution of eddies resolved in the model reflected differences between the early and late summer dispersal patterns. In the eastern part of the lake dispersal was primarily alongshore, reflecting counterclockwise coastal circulation. In the western part of the lake, cross-shore mixing was enhanced by cross-basin currents. PMID:29447286

Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaswal, A. K.; Rao, P. C. S.; Singh, Virendra

2015-02-01

Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 176 stations in India from 1969 to 2013, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature (HT) defined as days with maximum temperature higher than 37°C during summer season (March-June) are studied. With a focus on the regional variability and long-term trends, the impacts of HT days are examined by dividing the country into six geographical regions (North, West, North-central, East, South-central and South). Although the long-term (1969-2013) climatological numbers of HT days display well-defined spatial patterns, there is clear change in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of HT days in a recent period (1991-2013). The long period trends indicate increase in summer HT days by 3%, 5%, and 18% in north, west, and south regions, respectively and decrease by 4% and 9% in north-central and east regions respectively. However, spatial variations in HT days exist across different regions in the country. The data analysis shows that 2010 was the warmest summer year and 2013 was the coolest summer year in India. Comparison of spatial distributions of trends in HT days for 1969-1990 and 1991-2013 periods reveal that there is an abrupt increase in the number of HT days over north, west and north-central regions of India probably from mid 1990s. A steep increase in summer HT days in highly populated cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai, Jaipur, and Visakhapatnam is noticed during the recent period of 1991-2013. The summer HT days over southern India indicate significant positive correlation with Nino 3.4 index for three months' running mean (December-January-February, January-March, February-April, March-May and April-June).

Seasonal variation in body mass, body temperature and thermogenesis in the Hwamei, Garrulax canorus.

PubMed

Wu, Mei-Xiu; Zhou, Li-Meng; Zhao, Li-Dan; Zhao, Zhi-Jun; Zheng, Wei-Hong; Liu, Jin-Song

2015-01-01

The basal thermogenesis of birds is beginning to be viewed as a highly flexible physiological trait influenced by environmental fluctuations, particularly changes in ambient temperature (Ta). Many birds living in regions with seasonal fluctuations in Ta typically respond to cold by increasing their insulation and adjusting their metabolic rate. To understand these metabolic adaptations, body temperature (Tb), metabolic rate (MR), thermal neutral zone (TNZ) and thermal conductance were measured within a range of temperatures from 5 to 40°C in free-living Hwamei, Garrulax canorus, in both winter and summer. Body mass was 61.2±0.3g in winter and 55.5±1.0g in summer, and mean Tb was 41.6±0.1°C in winter and 42.3±0.1°C in summer. TNZ was between 28.3 and 35.1°C in winter and between 28.7 and 33.2°C in summer. The mean basal metabolic rate (BMR) within TNZ was 203.32±11.81ml O2 h(-1) in winter and 168.99±6.45ml O2 h(-1) in summer. Minimum thermal conductance was 3.73±0.09joulesg(-1)h(-1)°C(-1) in winter and 3.26±0.06joulesg(-1)h(-1)°C(-1) in summer. Birds caught in winter had higher body mass, MR, and more variable TNZ than those in summer. The increased winter BMR indicates improved ability to cope with cold and maintenance of a high Tb. These results show that the Hwamei's metabolism is not constant, but exhibits pronounced seasonal phenotypic flexibility associated with maintenance of a high Tb. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermal Variability in Gravel Bars and its Potential Consequences for CO2 Evasion from Alpine Coldwater Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boodoo, K. S.; Schelker, J.; Battin, T. J.

2016-12-01

Gravel bars (GB) are ubiquitous in-stream structures with relatively large exposed surfaces, capable of absorbing heat and possibly acting as a heat source to the underlying hyporheic zone (HZ). The distinctive mixing of groundwater and surface water within their HZ largely determines its characteristic physical and biogeochemical properties, including temperature distribution. To study thermal variability within GBs and its possible consequences for CO2 evasion fluxes we analysed high frequency spatio-temporal data for a range of stream and atmospheric physical parameters including the vertical GB temperature, in an Alpine cold water stream (Oberer Seebach, Austria) over the course of a year. We found the vertical temperature profiles within the GB to vary seasonally and with discharge. During warm summer months, diurnal vertical temperature patterns were most pronounced and were detected throughout all one-meter-depth profiles. Furthermore, permanently wetted GB sediment (-56 cm depth) temperatures above that of stream and groundwater occurred 17% of the year, particularly during summer. This is further evidence for downward heat transfer to the wetted HZ. Average CO2 flux from the GB was significantly higher than that of streamwater during summer and winter, with significantly higher temperatures and CO2 outgassing rates occurring at the GB tail as compared to streamwater and the head and mid of the GB throughout the year. Higher cumulative (over 6 h) GB temperatures were associated with increased CO2 evasion fluxes; the strength of the relationship increased with depth (max. r2 = 0.61 at -100cm depth). This enhanced CO2 flux may result from the input of warmer CO2-rich groundwater into the HZ in autumn and winter, while downward heat transfer in summer may enhance GB metabolism and therefore CO2 evasion. The importance of these processes is likely to increase, particularly in cold-water streams, due to the occurrence of more frequent and intense warm temperature events, as well as altered flow regimes, likely consequences of climatic change.

Possible causes for growth variability and summer growth reduction in juvenile plaice Pleuronectes platessa L. in the western Dutch Wadden Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Veer, Henk W.; Jung, Alexa Sarina; Freitas, Vânia; Philippart, Catharina J. M.; Witte, Johannes IJ.

2016-05-01

Growth variability within individuals and among groups and locations and the phenomenon of summer growth reduction has been described for juvenile flatfish in a variety of European coastal areas whereby the underlying causes still remain elusive. Potential mechanisms were tested for juvenile plaice Pleuronectes platessa L. in the western Dutch Wadden Sea, by analysing published and unpublished information from long-term investigations (1986-present). Growth variability did occur and could be explained by differences induced by environmental variability (water temperature), and by non-genetic irreversible adaptation and sex. Dynamic Energy Budget analysis indicated that especially sexually-dimorphic growth in combination with variability in sex ratio could explain most of the variability in growth and the increase in the range of the size of individuals within the population over time. Summer growth reduction was not only observed among 0-group plaice in the intertidal, but also in the subtidal and tidal gullies as well as among I- and II-group plaice. Intraspecific competition for food was not detected but some support for interspecific competition with other predators was found. Also resource competition (due to crowding) with the other abundant epibenthic species (0-, I- and II-group flounder Platichthys flesus; the brown shrimp Crangon crangon; the shore crab Carcinus maenas; the goby species Pomatoschistus minutus and Pomatoschistus microps) could not explain the summer growth reduction. The observed growth reduction coincided with a decrease in stomach content, especially of regenerating body parts of benthic prey items. It is hypothesised that macrozoobenthos becomes less active after the spring phytoplankton bloom, reducing prey availability for juvenile plaice in summer, causing a reduction in food intake and hence in growth.

Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G.T.; Fagre, D.B.; Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.

2004-01-01

Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ???70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Performance and carcass characteristics of steers fed with two levels of metabolizable energy intake during summer and winter season.

PubMed

Arias, R A; Keim, J P; Gandarillas, M; Velásquez, A; Alvarado-Gilis, C; Mader, T L

2018-05-22

Climate change is producing an increase on extreme weather events around the world such as flooding, drought and extreme ambient temperatures impacting animal production and animal welfare. At present, there is a lack of studies addressing the effects of climatic conditions associated with energy intake in finishing cattle in South American feed yards. Therefore, two experiments were conducted to assess the effects of environmental variables and level of metabolizable energy intake above maintenance requirements (MEI) on performance and carcass quality of steers. In each experiment (winter and summer), steers were fed with 1.85 or 2.72 times of their requirements of metabolizable energy of maintenance. A total of 24 crossbred steers per experiment were used and located in four pens (26.25 m2/head) equipped with a Calan Broadbent Feeding System. Animals were fed with the same diet within each season, varying the amount offered to adjust the MEI treatments. Mud depth, mud scores, tympanic temperature (TT), environmental variables, average daily gain, respiration rates and carcass characteristics plus three thermal comfort indices were collected. Data analysis considered a factorial arrangement (Season and MEI). In addition, a repeated measures analysis was performed for TT and respiration rate. Mean values of ambient temperature, solar radiation and comfort thermal indices were greater in the summer experiment as expected (P<0.005). The mean values of TT were higher in steers fed with higher MEI and also in the summer season. The average daily gain was greater during summer v. winter (1.10±0.11 v. 0.36±0.06) kg/day, also when steers were fed 2.72 v. 1.85 MEI level (0.89±0.12 v. 0.57±0.10) kg/day. In summer, respiration rate increased in 41.2% in the afternoon. In winter, muddy conditions increased with time of feeding, whereas wind speed and rainfall had significant effects on TT and average daily gain. We conclude that MEI and environmental variables have direct effects on the physiology and performance of steers, including TT and average daily gain, particularly during the winter. In addition, carcass characteristics were affected by season but not by the level of MEI. Finally, due to the high variability of data as well as the small number of animals assessed in these experiments, more studies on carcass characteristics under similar conditions are required.

Hydrographic and Ecological Effects of Enlargement of the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Appendix IV. Benthos of Delaware Waters in and Near C and D Canal.

DTIC Science & Technology

1973-09-01

stations in the last three sampling periods of this project to supplement the regular I infaunal sampling schedule. Salinity , dissolved oxygen, water...summer. Salinity was quite variable but tended to be * highest in late summer (range 0.1 — 10 O/~~~~~~ )~~~ Dissolved oxygen, being an inverse...function of both salinity and temperature, dropped in summer. Concentrations in the 2—3 mg/l range were not unusual. The physical data collected in

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Simulating soybean canopy temperature as affected by weather variables and soil water potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.

1982-01-01

Hourly weather data for several clear sky days during summer at Phoenix and Baltimore which covered a wide range of variables were used with a plant atmosphere model to simulate soybean (Glycine max L.) leaf water potential, stomatal resistance and canopy temperature at various soil water potentials. The air and dew point temperatures were found to be the significant weather variables affecting the canopy temperatures. Under identical weather conditions, the model gives a lower canopy temperature for a soybean crop with a higher rooting density. A knowledge of crop rooting density, in addition to air and dew point temperatures is needed in interpreting infrared radiometric observations for soil water status. The observed dependence of stomatal resistance on the vapor pressure deficit and soil water potential is fairly well represented. Analysis of the simulated leaf water potentials indicates overestimation, possibly due to differences in the cultivars.

Greater effect of increasing shrub height on winter versus summer soil temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, Mélissa; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane

2016-08-01

Shrub expansion is increasingly observed in arctic and subarctic environments. The development of shrub structure may significantly impact the abiotic environment at the local scale. Our objective was to reconstruct the development of the vertical structure of Betula glandulosa Michx. and to evaluate its effects on winter and summer soil temperature and on snow depth. Stratified sampling of the shrub revealed that shrub biomass distribution followed a similar pattern in stands of contrasting heights. Woody biomass was maximal in the lower stratum and relatively stable in the intermediate strata, while the foliar biomass tracked the vertical development of the shrub structure. Dendrochronological analysis revealed that shrub stands are relatively young; most of the dominant stems started their development after 1990. Shrub height was positively associated with both the dominant stem age and its vertical growth rate. Temperature differences among sites were greater during winter (ca 10 °C) than during summer (ca 2 °C), while the sum of freezing degree-days varied from 680 °C to 2125 °C. Shrub height was the most plausible variable explaining snow depth, winter ground level temperature and the sum of freezing degree-days. However, woody biomass in the 30-40 cm strata best explained summer ground level temperature. Our results suggest that the development of a shrub structure will have far-reaching consequences on the abiotic environment of subarctic ecosystems.

Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

PubMed

Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

2014-02-15

Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, P<0.05). The embryonic period was shortened by increasing temperature in both pH treatments (P<0.05). Embryo growth rates increased significantly with temperature under present-day scenarios, but there was a significant trend reversal under future summer warming conditions (P<0.05). Besides pronounced premature hatching, a higher percentage of abnormalities was found in summer embryos exposed to future warming and lower pH (P<0.05). Under the hypercapnic scenario, oxygen consumption rates decreased significantly in late embryos and newly hatched paralarvae, especially in the summer period (P<0.05). Concomitantly, there was a significant enhancement of the heat shock response (HSP70/HSC70) with warming in both pH treatments and developmental stages. Upper thermal tolerance limits were positively influenced by acclimation temperature, and such thresholds were significantly higher in late embryos than in hatchlings under present-day conditions (P<0.05). In contrast, the upper thermal tolerance limits under hypercapnia were higher in hatchlings than in embryos. Thus, we show that the stressful abiotic conditions inside the embryo's capsules will be exacerbated under near-future ocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.

Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

2017-08-01

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

An approach of surface coal fire detection from ASTER and Landsat-8 thermal data: Jharia coal field, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Priyom; Guha, Arindam; Kumar, K. Vinod

2015-07-01

Radiant temperature images from thermal remote sensing sensors are used to delineate surface coal fires, by deriving a cut-off temperature to separate coal-fire from non-fire pixels. Temperature contrast of coal fire and background elements (rocks and vegetation etc.) controls this cut-off temperature. This contrast varies across the coal field, as it is influenced by variability of associated rock types, proportion of vegetation cover and intensity of coal fires etc. We have delineated coal fires from background, based on separation in data clusters in maximum v/s mean radiant temperature (13th band of ASTER and 10th band of Landsat-8) scatter-plot, derived using randomly distributed homogeneous pixel-blocks (9 × 9 pixels for ASTER and 27 × 27 pixels for Landsat-8), covering the entire coal bearing geological formation. It is seen that, for both the datasets, overall temperature variability of background and fires can be addressed using this regional cut-off. However, the summer time ASTER data could not delineate fire pixels for one specific mine (Bhulanbararee) as opposed to the winter time Landsat-8 data. The contrast of radiant temperature of fire and background terrain elements, specific to this mine, is different from the regional contrast of fire and background, during summer. This is due to the higher solar heating of background rocky outcrops, thus, reducing their temperature contrast with fire. The specific cut-off temperature determined for this mine, to extract this fire, differs from the regional cut-off. This is derived by reducing the pixel-block size of the temperature data. It is seen that, summer-time ASTER image is useful for fire detection but required additional processing to determine a local threshold, along with the regional threshold to capture all the fires. However, the winter Landsat-8 data was better for fire detection with a regional threshold.

A 650-year record of past summer temperatures from Pirin, Bulgaria tree-ring density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meko, M. D.; Trouet, V.; Panayotov, M.; Frank, D. C.

2017-12-01

New proxy records of past climate provide valuable data essential to enhance spatial and temporal coverage of the global paleoclimate record - the context against which ongoing climate change and climate-model forcing is examined and evaluated. We present a new 650-year record of past summer temperatures in southeastern (SE) Europe derived from tree-ring maximum-latewood-density (MXD) data measured from Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii) growing at high elevations in the Pirin Mountains, Bulgaria (PRN). The PRN collection is well-replicated, with 64 trees contributing MXD series ranging in length from 113 to 865 years (median series length = 480 years) spanning the years 1143-2009. The PRN chronology shows a significant (p < 0.05) relationship with summer (JAS) temperatures across a broad geographical area of SE Europe, including the entire Balkan peninsula, southern Italy, and southwestern Anatolia. Our temperature reconstruction, produced by multiple regression utilizing lagged predictors and calibrated against Sofia, Bulgaria meteorological observations, explains nearly 60% of target variance and reveals variability across decadal, centennial, and longer timescales over the 1350-2009 reconstruction interval. Relative to the instrumental 1900-1980 mean, our record shows multidecadal cool anomalies spanning the first half of the 19th century and the late 17th century, and warm periods spanning the 18th century, 16th and early-to-mid 17th centuries, and late 14th to early 15th century. A comparison of the PRN reconstruction with existing reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures reveal intervals of asynchrony between local and hemisphere-scale decadal temperature variability, with marked asynchrony in the late 16th-early 17th centuries, and unprecedented asynchrony in the late 20th-to early 21st century.

2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan

2011-02-01

Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

Long-Term Responses of the Endemic Reef-Builder Cladocora caespitosa to Mediterranean Warming

PubMed Central

Kersting, Diego K.; Bensoussan, Nathaniel; Linares, Cristina

2013-01-01

Recurrent climate-induced mass-mortalities have been recorded in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 15 years. Cladocora caespitosa, the sole zooxanthellate scleractinian reef-builder in the Mediterranean, is among the organisms affected by these episodes. Extensive bioconstructions of this endemic coral are very rare at the present time and are threatened by several stressors. In this study, we assessed the long-term response of this temperate coral to warming sea-water in the Columbretes Islands (NW Mediterranean) and described, for the first time, the relationship between recurrent mortality events and local sea surface temperature (SST) regimes in the Mediterranean Sea. A water temperature series spanning more than 20 years showed a summer warming trend of 0.06°C per year and an increased frequency of positive thermal anomalies. Mortality resulted from tissue necrosis without massive zooxanthellae loss and during the 11-year study, necrosis was recorded during nine summers separated into two mortality periods (2003–2006 and 2008–2012). The highest necrosis rates were registered during the first mortality period, after the exceptionally hot summer of 2003. Although necrosis and temperature were significantly associated, the variability in necrosis rates during summers with similar thermal anomalies pointed to other acting factors. In this sense, our results showed that these differences were more closely related to the interannual temperature context and delayed thermal stress after extreme summers, rather than to acclimatisation and adaption processes. PMID:23951016

Analysis of a GRACE Global Mascon Solution for Gulf of Alaska Glaciers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arendt, Anthony; Luthcke, Scott B.; Gardner, Alex; O'Neel, Shad; Hill, David; Moholdt, Geir; Abdalati, Waleed

2013-01-01

We present a high-resolution Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mascon solution for Gulf of Alaska (GOA) glaciers and compare this with in situ glaciological, climate and other remote-sensing observations. Our GRACE solution yields a GOA glacier mass balance of -6511 Gt a(exp.-1) for the period December 2003 to December 2010, with summer balances driving the interannual variability. Between October/November 2003 and October 2009 we obtain a mass balance of -6111 Gt a(exp. -1) from GRACE, which compares well with -6512 Gt a(exp. -1) from ICESat based on hypsometric extrapolation of glacier elevation changes. We find that mean summer (June-August) air temperatures derived from both ground and lower-troposphere temperature records were good predictors of GRACE-derived summer mass balances, capturing 59% and 72% of the summer balance variability respectively. Large mass losses during 2009 were likely due to low early melt season surface albedos, measured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and likely associated with the 31 March 2009 eruption of Mount Redoubt, southwestern Alaska. GRACE data compared well with in situ measurements atWolverine Glacier (maritime Alaska), but poorly with those at Gulkana Glacier (interior Alaska). We conclude that, although GOA mass estimates from GRACE are robust over the entire domain, further constraints on subregional and seasonal estimates are necessary to improve fidelity to ground observations.

Analysis of a GRACE global mascon solution for Gulf of Alaska glaciers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arendt, Anthony; Luthcke, Scott; Gardner, Alex; O'Neel, Shad; Hill, David; Moholdt, Geir; Abdalati, Waleed

2013-01-01

We present a high-resolution Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mascon solution for Gulf of Alaska (GOA) glaciers and compare this with in situ glaciological, climate and other remote-sensing observations. Our GRACE solution yields a GOA glacier mass balance of –65 ± 11 Gt a–1 for the period December 2003 to December 2010, with summer balances driving the interannual variability. Between October/November 2003 and October 2009 we obtain a mass balance of –61 ± 11 Gt a–1 from GRACE, which compares well with –65 ± 12 Gt a–1 from ICESat based on hypsometric extrapolation of glacier elevation changes. We find that mean summer (June–August) air temperatures derived from both ground and lower-troposphere temperature records were good predictors of GRACE-derived summer mass balances, capturing 59% and 72% of the summer balance variability respectively. Large mass losses during 2009 were likely due to low early melt season surface albedos, measured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and likely associated with the 31 March 2009 eruption of Mount Redoubt, southwestern Alaska. GRACE data compared well with in situ measurements at Wolverine Glacier (maritime Alaska), but poorly with those at Gulkana Glacier (interior Alaska). We conclude that, although GOA mass estimates from GRACE are robust over the entire domain, further constraints on subregional and seasonal estimates are necessary to improve fidelity to ground observations.

Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA

Treesearch

A. H. Taylor; V. Trouet; C. N. Skinner

2008-01-01

he relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (...

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to paleoclimate time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderholm, H. W.; Folland, C. K.; Zhang, P.; Gunnarson, B. E.; Jeong, J. H.; Ren, H.

2017-12-01

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), strongly related to the latitude of the North Atlantic and European summer storm tracks, exerts a considerable influence on European summer climate variability and extremes. Here we extend the period covered by the SNAO from July and August to June, July and August (JJA). As well as marked interannual variability, the JJA SNAO has shown a large inter-decadal change since the 1970s. Decadally averaged, there has been a change from a very positive to a rather negative SNAO phase. This change in SNAO phase is opposite in sign from that expected by a number of climate models under enhanced greenhouse forcing by the late twenty first century. It has led to noticeably wetter summers in North West Europe in the last decade. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, SNAO variability is linked to variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST): observations and models indicate an association between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) where the cold (warm) phase of the AMO corresponds a positive (negative) phase of the SNAO. Observations also indicate a link with SST in the Gulf Stream region of the North Atlantic where, particularly on decadal time scales, SST warming may favour a more positive phase of the SNAO. Influences of Arctic climate change on North Atlantic and European atmospheric circulation may also exist, particularly reduced sea ice coverage, perhaps favouring the negative phase of the SNAO. A new tree-ring data based JJA SNAO reconstruction extending over the last millennium, as well as climate model output for the same period, enables us to examine the influence of North Atlantic SST and Arctic sea-ice coverage, as well as SNAO impacts on European summer climate, in a long-term, pre-industrial context.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

MGS TES observations of the water vapor above the seasonal and perennial ice caps during northern spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankine, Alexey A.; Tamppari, Leslie K.; Smith, Michael D.

2010-11-01

We report on new retrievals of water vapor column abundances from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. The new retrievals are from the TES nadir data taken above the 'cold' surface areas in the North polar region ( Tsurf < 220 K, including seasonal frost and permanent ice cap) during spring and summer seasons, where retrievals were not performed initially. Retrievals are possible (with some modifications to the original algorithm) over cold surfaces overlaid by sufficiently warm atmosphere. The retrieved water vapor column abundances are compared to the column abundances observed by other spacecrafts in the Northern polar region during spring and summer and good agreement is found. We detect an annulus of water vapor growing above the edge of the retreating seasonal cap during spring. The formation of the vapor annulus is consistent with the previously proposed mechanism for water cycling in the polar region, according to which vapor released by frost sublimation during spring re-condenses on the retreating seasonal CO 2 cap. The source of the vapor in the vapor annulus, according to this model, is the water frost on the surface of the CO 2 at the retreating edge of the cap and the frost on the ground that is exposed by the retreating cap. Small contribution from regolith sources is possible too, but cannot be quantified based on the TES vapor data alone. Water vapor annulus exhibits interannual variability, which we attribute to variations in the atmospheric temperature. We propose that during spring and summer the water ice sublimation is retarded by high relative humidity of the local atmosphere, and that higher atmospheric temperatures lead to higher vapor column abundances by increasing the water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Since the atmospheric temperatures are strongly influenced by the atmospheric dust content, local dust storms may be controlling the release of vapor into the polar atmosphere. Water vapor abundances above the residual polar cap also exhibit noticeable interannual variability. In some years abundances above the cap are lower than the abundances outside of the cap, consistent with previous observations, while in the other years the abundances above the cap are higher or similar to abundances outside of the cap. We speculate that the differences may be due to weaker off-cap transport in the latter case, keeping more vapor closer to the source at the surface of the residual cap. Despite the large observed variability in water vapor column abundances in the Northern polar region during spring and summer, the latitudinal distribution of the vapor mass in the atmosphere is very similar during the summer season. If the variability in vapor abundances is caused by the variability of vapor sources across the residual cap then this would mean that they annually contribute relatively little vapor mass to significantly affect the vapor mass budget. Alternatively this may suggest that the vapor variability is caused by the variability of the polar atmospheric circulation. The new water vapor retrievals should be useful in tuning the Global Circulation Models of the martian water cycle.

Characterizing Climate Controls on Vegetation Seasonality in the North American Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fish, M. A.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Seager, R.; Williams, P.

2014-12-01

The North American Southwest, which extends from Colorado to southern Mexico and California to eastern Texas, encompasses a diversity of climates, elevations, and ecosystems. This region is expected to experience significant climatic change, and associated impacts, in the coming decades. To better understand the spatiotemporal variability of vegetation in the Southwest and the expected climatic controls on timing and spatial extend of vegetation growth, we compared GIMMS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, 1981-2011) against temperature and precipitation data. Spatial variations in vegetation seasonality and the timing of peak NDVI are linked to spatial variability in the precipitation regimes across the Southwest. Regions with spring NDVI peaks are dominated by winter precipitation, while late summer and fall peaks are in regions with significant summer precipitation driven by the North American Monsoon. Inter-annual variability in peak NDVI is positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature, with the largest correlation coefficients at one-month lags. The only significant long-term trends in NDVI are for northern Mexico, where agricultural productivity has been increasing over the last 30 years.

How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika M.; Hall, David M.

2016-09-01

Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.

Recent variability in the Atlantic water intrusion and water masses in Kongsfjorden, an Arctic fjord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divya, David T.; Krishnan, K. P.

2017-03-01

The present study reports high inter-annual variability in the water masses and in the intrusion of Atlantic origin waters in Kongsfjorden from 2000 to 2013 using both the historical (2000-2010 summers) and recent CTD measurements (2011-2013 summer/fall). An earlier intrusion of Atlantic Water (AW) into Kongsfjorden was observed in the contemporary years. An overall summertime subsurface warming is evident from the maximum September AW temperature in 2011 (4.8 °C), 2012 (5.8 °C) and 2013 (7 °C). The combination of a compensating surface flow to the subsurface intrusion of AW and the strong southeasterly surface winds during the peak summer, resulted in a corresponding net outflow of the surface fresh water layer from Kongsfjorden. This led to the decreased freshwater volume inside the fjord during 2013 (1 km3) compared to 2011 (3.1 km3) and 2012 (2.3 km3).

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

PubMed

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

2016-04-13

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Monsoon-driven variability in the southern Red Sea and the exchange with the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Abualnaja, Y.; Nenes, A.; Hoteit, I.

2016-02-01

Although progress has been achieved in describing and understanding the mean state and seasonal cycle of the Red Sea dynamics, their interannual variability is not yet well evaluated and explained. The thermohaline characteristics and the circulation patterns present strong variability at various time scales and are affected by the strong and variable atmospheric forcing and the exchange with the Indian Ocean and the gulfs located at the northern end of the basin. Sea surface temperature time-series, derived from satellite observations, show considerable trends and interannual variations. The spatial variability pattern is very diverse, especially in the north-south direction. The southern part of the Red Sea is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon variability that affects the sea surface temperature through the surface fluxes and the circulation patterns. This variability has also a strong impact on the lateral fluxes and the exchange with the Indian Ocean through the strait of Bab el Mandeb. During summer, there is a reversal of the surface flow and an intermediate intrusion of a relatively cold and fresh water mass. This water originates from the Gulf of Aden (the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water - GAIW), is identified in the southern part of the basin and spreads northward along the eastern Red Sea boundary to approximately 24°N and carried across the Red Sea by basin-size eddies. The GAIW intrusion plays an important role in the heat and freshwater budget of the southern Red Sea, especially in summer, impacting the thermohaline characteristics of the region. It is a permanent feature of the summer exchange flow but it exhibits significant variation from year to year. The intrusion is controlled by a monsoon-driven pressure gradient in the two ends of the strait and thus monsoon interannual variability can laterally impose its signal to the southern Red Sea thermohaline patterns.

Effects of an evaporative cooling system on plasma cortisol, IGF-I, and milk production in dairy cows in a tropical environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titto, Cristiane Gonçalves; Negrão, João Alberto; Titto, Evaldo Antonio Lencioni; Canaes, Taissa de Souza; Titto, Rafael Martins; Pereira, Alfredo Manuel Franco

2013-03-01

Access to an evaporative cooling system can increase production in dairy cows because of improved thermal comfort. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of ambient temperature on thermoregulation, plasma cortisol, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I), and productive status, and to determine the efficiency of an evaporative cooling system on physiological responses under different weather patterns. A total of 28 Holstein cows were divided into two groups, one with and the other without access to a cooling system with fans and mist in the free stall. The parameters were analyzed during morning (0700 hours) and afternoon milking (1430 hours) under five different weather patterns throughout the year (fall, winter, spring, dry summer, and rainy summer). Rectal temperature (RT), body surface temperature (BS), base of tail temperature (TT), and respiratory frequency (RF) were lower in the morning ( P < 0.01). The cooling system did not affect RT, and both the groups had values below 38.56 over the year ( P = 0.11). Cortisol and IGF-I may have been influenced by the seasons, in opposite ways. Cortisol concentrations were higher in winter ( P < 0.05) and IGF-I was higher during spring-summer ( P < 0.05). The air temperature and the temperature humidity index showed positive moderate correlations to RT, BS, TT, and RF ( P < 0.001). The ambient temperature was found to have a positive correlation with the physiological variables, independent of the cooling system, but cooled animals exhibited higher milk production during spring and summer ( P < 0.01).

Effects of an evaporative cooling system on plasma cortisol, IGF-I, and milk production in dairy cows in a tropical environment.

PubMed

Titto, Cristiane Gonçalves; Negrão, João Alberto; Titto, Evaldo Antonio Lencioni; Canaes, Taissa de Souza; Titto, Rafael Martins; Pereira, Alfredo Manuel Franco

2013-03-01

Access to an evaporative cooling system can increase production in dairy cows because of improved thermal comfort. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of ambient temperature on thermoregulation, plasma cortisol, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I), and productive status, and to determine the efficiency of an evaporative cooling system on physiological responses under different weather patterns. A total of 28 Holstein cows were divided into two groups, one with and the other without access to a cooling system with fans and mist in the free stall. The parameters were analyzed during morning (0700 hours) and afternoon milking (1430 hours) under five different weather patterns throughout the year (fall, winter, spring, dry summer, and rainy summer). Rectal temperature (RT), body surface temperature (BS), base of tail temperature (TT), and respiratory frequency (RF) were lower in the morning (P < 0.01). The cooling system did not affect RT, and both the groups had values below 38.56 over the year (P = 0.11). Cortisol and IGF-I may have been influenced by the seasons, in opposite ways. Cortisol concentrations were higher in winter (P < 0.05) and IGF-I was higher during spring-summer (P < 0.05). The air temperature and the temperature humidity index showed positive moderate correlations to RT, BS, TT, and RF (P < 0.001). The ambient temperature was found to have a positive correlation with the physiological variables, independent of the cooling system, but cooled animals exhibited higher milk production during spring and summer (P < 0.01).

Quantifying stream thermal regimes at management-pertinent scales: combining thermal infrared and stationary stream temperature data in a novel modeling framework.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vatland, Shane J.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Poole, Geoffrey C.

2015-01-01

Accurately quantifying stream thermal regimes can be challenging because stream temperatures are often spatially and temporally heterogeneous. In this study, we present a novel modeling framework that combines stream temperature data sets that are continuous in either space or time. Specifically, we merged the fine spatial resolution of thermal infrared (TIR) imagery with hourly data from 10 stationary temperature loggers in a 100 km portion of the Big Hole River, MT, USA. This combination allowed us to estimate summer thermal conditions at a relatively fine spatial resolution (every 100 m of stream length) over a large extent of stream (100 km of stream) during during the warmest part of the summer. Rigorous evaluation, including internal validation, external validation with spatially continuous instream temperature measurements collected from a Langrangian frame of reference, and sensitivity analyses, suggests the model was capable of accurately estimating longitudinal patterns in summer stream temperatures for this system Results revealed considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in summer stream temperatures and highlighted the value of assessing thermal regimes at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales. Preserving spatial and temporal variability and structure in abiotic stream data provides a critical foundation for understanding the dynamic, multiscale habitat needs of mobile stream organisms. Similarly, enhanced understanding of spatial and temporal variation in dynamic water quality attributes, including temporal sequence and spatial arrangement, can guide strategic placement of monitoring equipment that will subsequently capture variation in environmental conditions directly pertinent to research and management objectives.

Recent climate variability and its impacts on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Danielle Barros; Rao, V. Brahmananda

2011-08-01

Recent climate variability in rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum), and the diurnal temperature range is studied with emphasis on its influence over soybean yields in southern Brazil, during 1969 to 2002. The results showed that the soybean ( Glycine max L. Merril) yields are more affected by changes in temperature during summer, while changes in rainfall are more important during the beginning of plantation and at its peak of development. Furthermore, soybean yields in Paraná are more sensitive to rainfall variations, while soybean yields in the Rio Grande do Sul are more sensitive to variations in temperature. Effects of interannual climatic variability on soybean yields are evaluated through three agro-meteorological models: additive Stewart, multiplicative Rao, and multiplicative Jensen. The Jensen model is able to reproduce the interannual behavior of soybean yield reasonably well.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sun, Shengzhi; Laden, Francine; Hart, Jaime E; Qiu, Hong; Wang, Yan; Wong, Chit Ming; Lee, Ruby Siu-Yin; Tian, Linwei

2018-04-05

Climate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse. We aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders. We ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10-13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant's residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June-August) or winter (December-February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions. During the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability. Wintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Improve projections of changes in southern African summer rainfall through comprehensive multi-timescale empirical statistical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.

2017-12-01

The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to simulate southern African summer rainfall. This multi-timescale procedure shows much better skills in simulating decadal timescales of variability compared to commonly used statistical downscaling approaches.

Chronic stress of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss at high altitude: a field study.

PubMed

Hunt von Herbing, I; Pan, T-C F; Méndez-Sánchez, F; Garduño-Paz, M; Hernández-Gallegos, O; Ruiz-Gómez, M L; Rodríguez-Vargas, G

2015-07-01

The stress response of Oncorhynchus mykiss in high-altitude farms in central Mexico was investigated over two seasons: the cool (9·1-13·7° C) dry winter season, and the warmer (14·7-15·9° C), wetter summer season. Fish were subjected to an acute stress test followed by sampling of six physiological variables: blood cortisol, glucose, lactate, total antioxidant capacity, haemoglobin concentration and per cent packed cell volume (VPC %). Multivariate analyses revealed that lactate and total antioxidant capacity were significantly higher in the summer, when water temperatures were warmer and moderate hypoxia (4·9-5·3 mg l(-1) ) prevailed. In contrast, plasma cortisol was significantly higher in the winter (mean ± s.e.: 76·7 ± 4·0 ng ml(-1) ) when temperatures were cooler and dissolved oxygen levels higher (6·05-7·9 mg l(-1) ), than in the summer (22·7 ± 3·8 ng ml(-1) ). Haemoglobin concentrations (mg dl(-1) ) were not significantly different between seasons, but VPC % was significantly higher in the summer (50%) than in the winter (35%). These results suggest that in summer, effects of high altitude on farmed fish are exacerbated by stresses of high temperatures and hypoxia, resulting in higher blood lactate, increased total antioxidant capacity and elevated VPC % levels. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Analysis of Temperature Variability in Medication Storage Compartments in Emergency Transport Helicopters.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Margaret A; Whitfield, Justin

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the temperature in medication storage compartments in air medical helicopters was within United States Pharmacopeia (USP)-defined limits for controlled room temperature. This was a prospective study using data obtained from a continuous temperature monitoring device. A total of 4 monitors were placed within 2 medication storage locations in 2 identical helicopters. The data collection period lasted 2 weeks during the summer and winter seasons. Data retrieved from monitors were compared against USP parameters for proper medication storage. Results documented temperatures outside the acceptable range a majority of the time with temperatures above the high limit during summer and below the low limit during winter. The study determined that compartments used for medication storage frequently fell outside of the range for USP-defined limits for medication storage. Flight programs should monitor storage areas, carefully taking actions to keep medication within defined ranges. Copyright © 2016 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

River Temperature Dynamics and Habitat Characteristics as Predictors of Salmonid Abundance using Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryczkowski, L.; Gallion, D.; Haeseker, S.; Bower, R.; Collier, M.; Selker, J. S.; Scherberg, J.; Henry, R.

2011-12-01

Salmonids require cool water for all life stages, including spawning and growth. Excessive water temperature causes reduced growth and increased disease and mortality. During the summer, salmonids seek local zones of cooler water as a refuge from elevated temperatures. They also prefer specific habitat features such as boulders and overhanging vegetation. The purpose of this study is to determine whether temperature dynamics or commonly measured fish habitat metrics best explain salmonid abundance. The study site was a 2-kilometer reach of the Walla Walla River near Milton-Freewater, OR, USA, which provides habitat for the salmonids chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead/rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni), and the endangered bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). The Walla Walla River is listed as an impaired water body under section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act due to temperature. The associated total maximum daily load (TMDL) calls for temperatures to be below 18 °C at all times for salmonid rearing and migration; however, river temperatures surpassed 24 °C in parts of the study reach in 2009. The two largest factors contributing to the warmer water are reduced riparian vegetation, which decreases shading and increases direct solar radiation, and decreased summer flows caused by diversions and irrigation for agriculture. Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing has emerged as a unique and powerful tool for ecological applications because of its high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, meter-scale temperature measurements were obtained at 15-minute intervals along the length of the study reach, allowing for the detection and quantification of cold water inflows during the summer of 2009. The cold water inflows were classified as groundwater or hyporheic sources based on the diurnal temperature patterns. Snorkel surveys were conducted in mid-July and mid-August, 2009 to enumerate salmonid abundance in 23 pools. Fish habitat metrics were quantified for each pool by visual estimation. Regression analysis suggests that temperature-related variables explain fish abundance better than habitat variables, and that salmonids' affinity for cold water refuge may be enhanced following periods of high temperature approaching the lethal threshold.

Meteorological variables affect fertility rate after intrauterine artificial insemination in sheep in a seasonal-dependent manner: a 7-year study.

PubMed

Palacios, C; Abecia, J A

2015-05-01

A total number of 48,088 artificial inseminations (AIs) have been controlled during seven consecutive years in 79 dairy sheep Spanish farms (41° N). Mean, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures (Ts), temperature amplitude (TA), mean relative humidity (RH), mean solar radiation (SR) and total rainfall of each insemination day and 15 days later were recorded. Temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) have been calculated. A binary logistic regression model to estimate the risk of not getting pregnant compared to getting pregnant, through the odds ratio (OR), was performed. Successful winter inseminations were carried out under higher SR (P < 0.01) and summer inseminations under lower SR values (P < 0.05). Successful inseminations during the summer were performed under significantly lower maximum T (P < 0.01), while winter inseminations resulted in pregnancy when they were carried out under higher maximum (P < 0.05) and minimum Ts (P < 0.01). Up to five meteorological variables presented OR >1 (maximum T, ET and rainfall on AI day, and ET and rainfall on day 15), and two variables presented OR <1 (SR on AI day and maximum T on day 15). However, the effect of meteorological factors affected fertility in opposite ways, so T becomes a protective or risk factor on fertility depending on season. In conclusion, the percentage of pregnancy after AI in sheep is significantly affected by meteorological variables in a seasonal-dependent manner, so the parameters such as temperature reverse their effects in the hot or cold seasons. A forecast of the meteorological conditions could be a useful tool when AI dates are being scheduled.

Meteorological variables affect fertility rate after intrauterine artificial insemination in sheep in a seasonal-dependent manner: a 7-year study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacios, C.; Abecia, J. A.

2015-05-01

A total number of 48,088 artificial inseminations (AIs) have been controlled during seven consecutive years in 79 dairy sheep Spanish farms (41° N). Mean, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures ( Ts), temperature amplitude (TA), mean relative humidity (RH), mean solar radiation (SR) and total rainfall of each insemination day and 15 days later were recorded. Temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) have been calculated. A binary logistic regression model to estimate the risk of not getting pregnant compared to getting pregnant, through the odds ratio (OR), was performed. Successful winter inseminations were carried out under higher SR ( P < 0.01) and summer inseminations under lower SR values ( P < 0.05). Successful inseminations during the summer were performed under significantly lower maximum T ( P < 0.01), while winter inseminations resulted in pregnancy when they were carried out under higher maximum ( P < 0.05) and minimum Ts ( P < 0.01). Up to five meteorological variables presented OR >1 (maximum T, ET and rainfall on AI day, and ET and rainfall on day 15), and two variables presented OR <1 (SR on AI day and maximum T on day 15). However, the effect of meteorological factors affected fertility in opposite ways, so T becomes a protective or risk factor on fertility depending on season. In conclusion, the percentage of pregnancy after AI in sheep is significantly affected by meteorological variables in a seasonal-dependent manner, so the parameters such as temperature reverse their effects in the hot or cold seasons. A forecast of the meteorological conditions could be a useful tool when AI dates are being scheduled.

Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.

2017-05-31

Green Peter and Foster Dams on the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon, have altered the annual downstream water temperature profile (cycle). Operation of the dams has resulted in cooler summer releases and warmer autumn releases relative to pre-dam conditions, and that alteration can hinder recovery of various life stages of threatened spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhyncus tshawytscha) and winter steelhead (O. mykiss). Lake level management and the use of multiple outlets from varying depths at the dams can enable the maintenance of a temperature regime more closely resembling that in which the fish evolved by releasing warm surface water during summer and cooler, deeper water in the autumn. At Green Peter and Foster Dams, the outlet configuration is such that temperature control is often limited by hydropower production at the dams. Previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 water temperature models of Green Peter and Foster Lakes were used to simulate the downstream thermal effects from hypothetical structures and modified operations at the dams. Scenarios with no minimum power production requirements allowed some releases through shallower and deeper outlets (summer and autumn) to achieve better temperature control throughout the year and less year-to-year variability in autumn release temperatures. Scenarios including a hypothetical outlet floating 1 meter below the lake surface resulted in greater ability to release warm water during summer compared to existing structures. Later in Autumn (October 15–December 31), a limited amount of temperature control was realized downstream from Foster Dam by scenarios limited to operational changes with existing structures, resulting in 15-day averages within 1.0 degree Celsius of current operations.

Association between weather conditions and the number of patients at the emergency room in an Argentine hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusticucci, Matilde; Bettolli, Laura M.; de los Angeles Harris, M.

2002-02-01

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between hospital emergencies and weather conditions by analysing summer and winter cases of patients requiring attention at the emergency room of a hospital in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hospital data have been sorted into seven different diagnostic groups as follows: (1) respiratory, cardiovascular and chest-pain complaints; (2) digestive, genitourinary and abdominal complaints; (3) neurological and psychopathological disorders; (4) infections; (5) contusion and crushing, bone and muscle complaints; (6) skin and allergies and (7) miscellaneous complaints. In general, there is an increase of 16.7% in winter while, for group 2 and group 6, there are more patients in summer, 54% and 75% respectively. In summer, the total number of patients for group 6 shows a significant positive correlation with temperature and dew-point temperature, and a negative correlation with the sea-level pressure for the same day. In winter, the same relationship exists, however its correlation is not as strong. The lags observed between these three variables: maximum dew-point temperature, maximum temperature, minimum air pressure and the peaks in admissions are 1, 2 and 4 days respectively. In winter, increases in temperature and dew point and decreases in pressure are followed by a peak in admissions for group 2. In winter, there are significantly more cases in group 5 on warm, dry days and on warm, wet days in the summer.

The intraannual variability of land-atmosphere coupling over North America in the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang Kam Wing, G.; Sushama, L.; Diro, G. T.

2016-12-01

This study investigates the intraannual variability of soil moisture-temperature coupling over North America. To this effect, coupled and uncoupled simulations are performed with the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), driven by ERA-Interim. In coupled simulations, land and atmosphere interact freely; in uncoupled simulations, the interannual variability of soil moisture is suppressed by prescribing climatological values for soil liquid and frozen water contents. The study also explores projected changes to coupling by comparing coupled and uncoupled CRCM5 simulations for current (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) periods, driven by the Canadian Earth System Model. Coupling differs for the northern and southern parts of North America. Over the southern half, it is persistent throughout the year while for the northern half, strongly coupled regions generally follow the freezing line during the cold months. Detailed analysis of the southern Canadian Prairies reveals seasonal differences in the underlying coupling mechanism. During spring and fall, as opposed to summer, the interactive soil moisture phase impacts the snow depth and surface albedo, which further impacts the surface energy budget and thus the surface air temperature; the air temperature then influences the snow depth in a feedback loop. Projected changes to coupling are also season specific: relatively drier soil conditions strengthen coupling during summer, while changes in soil moisture phase, snow depth, and cloud cover impact coupling during colder months. Furthermore, results demonstrate that soil moisture variability amplifies the frequency of temperature extremes over regions of strong coupling in current and future climates.

Effects of seasonal acclimatization on temperature dependence of cardiac excitability in the roach, Rutilus rutilus.

PubMed

Badr, A; El-Sayed, M F; Vornanen, M

2016-05-15

Temperature sensitivity of electrical excitability is a potential limiting factor for performance level and thermal tolerance of excitable tissues in ectothermic animals. To test whether the rate and rhythm of the heart acclimatize to seasonal temperature changes, thermal sensitivity of cardiac excitation in a eurythermal teleost, the roach (Rutilus rutilus), was examined. Excitability of the heart was determined from in vivo electrocardiograms and in vitro microelectrode recordings of action potentials (APs) from winter and summer roach acclimatized to 4 and 18°C, respectively. Under heat ramps (3°C h(-1)), starting from the acclimatization temperatures of the fish, heart rate increased to maximum values of 78±5 beats min(-1) (at 19.8±0.5°C) and 150±7 beats min(-1) (at 28.1±0.5°C) for winter and summer roach, respectively, and then declined in both groups. Below 20°C, heart rate was significantly higher in winter than in summer roach (P<0.05), indicating positive thermal compensation. Cardiac arrhythmias appeared with rising temperature as missing QRS complexes, increase in variability of heart rate, episodes of atrial tachycardia, ventricular bradycardia and complete cessation of the heartbeat (asystole) in both winter and summer roach. Unlike winter roach, atrial APs of summer roach had a distinct early repolarization phase, which appeared as shorter durations of atrial AP at 10% and 20% repolarization levels in comparison to winter roach (P<0.05). In contrast, seasonal acclimatization had only subtle effects on ventricular AP characteristics. Plasticity of cardiac excitation appears to be necessary for seasonal improvements in performance level and thermal resilience of the roach heart. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Spatial and Seasonal Calcification in Corals and Calcareous Crusts in a Naturally Warm Coral Reef Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roik, A.; Roder, C.; Roethig, T.; Voolstra, C. R.

2016-02-01

The Red Sea harbors highly diverse and structurally complex coral reefs and is of interest for ocean warming studies. In the central and southern part, water temperatures rise above 30°C during summer, constituting one of the warmest coral reef environments worldwide. Additionally, seasonal variability of temperatures allows studying changes of environmental conditions and their effects on coral reef processes. To explore the influence of these warm and seasonally variable habitats on reef calcification, we measured in situ calcification of primary and secondary reef-builders in the central Red Sea. We collected calcification rates on the major habitat-forming coral genera Porites, Acropora, and Pocillopora, and also on calcareous crusts (CC). The study comprised forereef and backreef environments of three reefs along a cross-shelf gradient assessed over four seasons of the year. Calcification patterns of all coral genera were consistent across the shelf and highest in spring. In contrast to the corals, CC calcification strongly increased with distance from shore, but varied to a lesser extend over the seasons demonstrating lower calcification rates during spring and summer. Interestingly, reef calcification rates in the central Red Sea were on average in the range of data reported from the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific. For Acropora, annual average calcification rates were even at the lower end in comparison to studies from other locations. While coral calcification maxima typically have been observed during summer in many reef locations worldwide, we observed calcification maxima during spring in the central Red Sea indicating that summer temperatures may exceed the optima of reef calcifiers. Our study provides a baseline of calcification data for the region and serves as a foundation for comparative efforts to quantify the impact of future environmental change.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

2015-02-01

We analyze the sensitivity of the effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on surface temperature and precipitation in Europe to the definition of the NAO index. Seven different NAO indices are examined: two based on station sea level pressure (SLP) data, two based on action centers, and three based on correlation/covariance structures described by principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis is based on monthly mean data; winter and summer seasons are analyzed separately. Temporal correlations between indices are weaker in summer than in winter for most pairs of indices. In particular, low correlations are found between station indices on the one hand and PCA-based indices on the other hand. The NAO effects are quantified by correlations between the indices and station data in Europe. Effects of the NAO on precipitation amount and wet day probability are very similar, while NAO effects on maximum temperature are stronger than those on minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NAO effects on both surface temperature and precipitation to the choice of the NAO index is considerably higher in summer. Correlations differ among the NAO indices not only in their magnitude but in some regions in summer also in their sign. These effects can be explained by a northward shift of the whole NAO pattern and its action centers in summer, away from the sites on which the station indices are based, and by a decoupling of the Azores high and Icelandic low from the centers of high covariability, identified by PCA. Considerable differences in SLP anomaly patterns associated to individual NAO indices also contribute to different responses in temperature and precipitation. Finally, we formulate two recommendations to future analyses of NAO effects on surface climate: use several different NAO indices instead of a single one, and for summer do not use station indices because they do not represent the circulation variability related to the NAO.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-01-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

PubMed

Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-06-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Scrotal infrared digital thermography as a predictor of seasonal effects on sperm traits in Braford bulls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menegassi, Silvio Renato Oliveira; Barcellos, Júlio Otavio Jardim; Dias, Eduardo Antunes; Koetz, Celso; Pereira, Gabriel Ribas; Peripolli, Vanessa; McManus, Concepta; Canozzi, Maria Eugênia Andrighetto; Lopes, Flávio Guiselli

2015-03-01

The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal effects of the environment on semen quality in bulls, using infrared thermography. Sperm motility (M), mass motion (MM), and vigor (VIG) were evaluated in sperm samples from 17 Bradford bulls aged approximately 24 months at the beginning of the study. Infrared thermography images and data were collected using an infrared FLIR T 300 camera and Quick Report 1.2 SP2 software to determine the temperature of the proximal and distal poles of the testis and to assess the testicular temperature gradient. The seasonal effects on physiological, seminal, and climatic variables were analyzed by the GLM ANOVA and CORR procedures using SAS®. The microclimatic factors were recorded in hourly intervals, and the daily mean temperature and mean relative humidity were calculated to determine the daily temperature-humidity index (THI) every day for 1 year. The temperature gradient (TG) variations of the testes were significantly higher in the autumn (4.5 °C), winter (4.0 °C), and spring (2.9 °C) compared to summer (0.9 °C) ( P < 0.05). Ocular globe temperatures were lower in the winter (27.6 °C) and autumn (26.8 °C) compared to summer (33.9 °C) and spring (31.1 °C) ( P < 0.05). The average MM (2.58), M (52.64), and VIG (2.70) of the semen decreased in the summer compared to other seasons ( P < 0.01). The TG was negatively correlated with THI (-0.44; P < 0.05). For the seminal variables, MaD (-0.45; P < 0.05) and TD (-0.50; P < 0.01) presented a negative correlation with TG. The TG had a positive correlation between M and VIG, which had values of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively ( P < 0.05). We have concluded that infrared thermography can be used to assess the testicular temperature gradient and its consequences on physical and quantitative aspects of sperm.

Coastal Circulation and Sediment Dynamics in Hanalei Bay, Kaua'i, Part IV, Measurements of Waves, Currents, Temperature, Salinity, and Turbidity, June-September 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Presto, M. Katherine; Logan, Joshua B.; Field, Michael E.

2008-01-01

High-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature, salinity and turbidity were made in Hanalei Bay, northern Kaua'i, Hawai'i, during the summer of 2006 to better understand coastal circulation, sediment dynamics, and the potential impact of a river flood in a coral reef-lined embayment during quiescent summer conditions. A series of bottommounted instrument packages were deployed in water depths of 10 m or less to collect long-term, high-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature, salinity, and turbidity. These data were supplemented with a series of profiles through the water column to characterize the vertical and spatial variability in water column properties within the bay. These measurements support the ongoing process studies being conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program's Pacific Coral Reef Project; the ultimate goal is to better understand the transport mechanisms of sediment, larvae, pollutants, and other particles in coral reef settings. Information regarding the USGS study conducted in Hanalei Bay during the 2005 summer is available in Storlazzi and others (2006), Draut and others (2006) and Carr and others (2006). This report, the last part in a series, describes data acquisition, processing, and analysis for the 2006 summer data set.

Seasonal carbonate chemistry covariation with temperature, oxygen, and salinity in a fjord estuary: implications for the design of ocean acidification experiments.

PubMed

Reum, Jonathan C P; Alin, Simone R; Feely, Richard A; Newton, Jan; Warner, Mark; McElhany, Paul

2014-01-01

Carbonate chemistry variability is often poorly characterized in coastal regions and patterns of covariation with other biologically important variables such as temperature, oxygen concentration, and salinity are rarely evaluated. This absence of information hampers the design and interpretation of ocean acidification experiments that aim to characterize biological responses to future pCO2 levels relative to contemporary conditions. Here, we analyzed a large carbonate chemistry data set from Puget Sound, a fjord estuary on the U.S. west coast, and included measurements from three seasons (winter, summer, and fall). pCO2 exceeded the 2008-2011 mean atmospheric level (392 µatm) at all depths and seasons sampled except for the near-surface waters (< 10 m) in the summer. Further, undersaturated conditions with respect to the biogenic carbonate mineral aragonite were widespread (Ωar<1). We show that pCO2 values were relatively uniform throughout the water column and across regions in winter, enriched in subsurface waters in summer, and in the fall some values exceeded 2500 µatm in near-surface waters. Carbonate chemistry covaried to differing levels with temperature and oxygen depending primarily on season and secondarily on region. Salinity, which varied little (27 to 31), was weakly correlated with carbonate chemistry. We illustrate potential high-frequency changes in carbonate chemistry, temperature, and oxygen conditions experienced simultaneously by organisms in Puget Sound that undergo diel vertical migrations under present-day conditions. We used simple calculations to estimate future pCO2 and Ωar values experienced by diel vertical migrators based on an increase in atmospheric CO2. Given the potential for non-linear interactions between pCO2 and other abiotic variables on physiological and ecological processes, our results provide a basis for identifying control conditions in ocean acidification experiments for this region, but also highlight the wide range of carbonate chemistry conditions organisms may currently experience in this and similar coastal ecosystems.

Seasonal Carbonate Chemistry Covariation with Temperature, Oxygen, and Salinity in a Fjord Estuary: Implications for the Design of Ocean Acidification Experiments

PubMed Central

Reum, Jonathan C. P.; Alin, Simone R.; Feely, Richard A.; Newton, Jan; Warner, Mark; McElhany, Paul

2014-01-01

Carbonate chemistry variability is often poorly characterized in coastal regions and patterns of covariation with other biologically important variables such as temperature, oxygen concentration, and salinity are rarely evaluated. This absence of information hampers the design and interpretation of ocean acidification experiments that aim to characterize biological responses to future pCO2 levels relative to contemporary conditions. Here, we analyzed a large carbonate chemistry data set from Puget Sound, a fjord estuary on the U.S. west coast, and included measurements from three seasons (winter, summer, and fall). pCO2 exceeded the 2008–2011 mean atmospheric level (392 µatm) at all depths and seasons sampled except for the near-surface waters (< 10 m) in the summer. Further, undersaturated conditions with respect to the biogenic carbonate mineral aragonite were widespread (Ωar<1). We show that pCO2 values were relatively uniform throughout the water column and across regions in winter, enriched in subsurface waters in summer, and in the fall some values exceeded 2500 µatm in near-surface waters. Carbonate chemistry covaried to differing levels with temperature and oxygen depending primarily on season and secondarily on region. Salinity, which varied little (27 to 31), was weakly correlated with carbonate chemistry. We illustrate potential high-frequency changes in carbonate chemistry, temperature, and oxygen conditions experienced simultaneously by organisms in Puget Sound that undergo diel vertical migrations under present-day conditions. We used simple calculations to estimate future pCO2 and Ωar values experienced by diel vertical migrators based on an increase in atmospheric CO2. Given the potential for non-linear interactions between pCO2 and other abiotic variables on physiological and ecological processes, our results provide a basis for identifying control conditions in ocean acidification experiments for this region, but also highlight the wide range of carbonate chemistry conditions organisms may currently experience in this and similar coastal ecosystems. PMID:24586915

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis

PubMed Central

Anderson, James G.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Homeyer, Cameron R.; Smith, Jessica B.; Wilmouth, David M.; Sayres, David S.; Klobas, J. Eric; Dykema, John A.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2017-01-01

We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; (ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; (iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and (iv) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate−water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4. PMID:28584119

The effect of climate variability on the carbon cycle of a Mediterranean forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manca, G.; Tirone, G.; Matteucci, G.; Tonon, G.; Cherubini, P.; Goded Ballarin, I.; Duerr, M.; Matteucci, M.; Seufert, G.

2009-04-01

Measurements of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide have operated since 1999 in the Mediterranean forest ecosystem (Pinus pinaster, L.) located in San Rossore (Pisa - Italy). Using night time values of NEE it is possible to estimate the Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) and the Gross Ecosystem Productivity (GEP), i.e. the photosynthetic uptake of CO2 without respiratory losses. The analysis of such fluxes shows that on annual base San Rossore is a CO2 sink. This ecosystem experiences a strong reduction of carbon uptake during summer when the rainfall is low and the air temperature is high. In such condition trees close stomata in order to avoid alteration of the leaf water status. This is the typical behaviour of the drought avoiding species. The reduction of the carbon uptake is due mainly to a reduction of photosynthesis whereas the ecosystem respiration undergoes a lower decrease. The summer 2003 is an extreme example of this pattern. The long time series collected in San Rossore allows to test the reaction of the forest to a wet summer (summer 2002), when the rainfall was 506 mm (300 mm more than the summer average 1999-2007), and the effect of high temperature in winter (January 2007). During summer 2002 both GEP and Reco were higher than the average but the GEP experienced the higher increase. The high temperature in January 2007 (3 °C higher than the average 1999-2007), was responsible for the huge increase of the ecosystem respiration not balanced by the little increase of GEP.

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis.

PubMed

Anderson, James G; Weisenstein, Debra K; Bowman, Kenneth P; Homeyer, Cameron R; Smith, Jessica B; Wilmouth, David M; Sayres, David S; Klobas, J Eric; Leroy, Stephen S; Dykema, John A; Wofsy, Steven C

2017-06-20

We present observations defining ( i ) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; ( ii ) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; ( iii ) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and ( iv ) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate-water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO 2 and CH 4 .

Comparing the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of atmospheric and surface urban heat islandsbased on the Beijing urban meteorological network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Wang, K.; Wang, J.; Zhou, C.; Wang, X.; Lee, X.

2017-12-01

This study compared the diurnal and seasonal cycles of atmospheric and surface urban heat islands (UHIs) based on hourly air temperatures (Ta) collected at 65 out of 262 stations in Beijing and land surface temperature (Ts) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer in the years 2013-2014. We found that the nighttime atmospheric and surface UHIs referenced to rural cropland stations exhibited significant seasonal cycles, with the highest in winter. However, the seasonal variations in the nighttime UHIs referenced to mountainous forest stations were negligible, because mountainous forests have a higher nighttime Ts in winter and a lower nighttime T a in summer than rural croplands. Daytime surface UHIs showed strong seasonal cycles, with the highest in summer. The daytime atmospheric UHIs exhibited a similar but less seasonal cycle under clear-sky conditions, which was not apparent under cloudy-sky conditions. Atmospheric UHIs in urban parks were higher in daytime. Nighttime atmospheric UHIs are influenced by energy stored in urban materials during daytime and released during nighttime. The stronger anthropogenic heat release in winter causes atmospheric UHIs to increase with time during winter nights, but decrease with time during summer nights. The percentage of impervious surfaces is responsible for 49%-54% of the nighttime atmospheric UHI variability and 31%-38% of the daytime surface UHI variability. However, the nighttime surface UHI was nearly uncorrelated with the percentage of impervious surfaces around the urban stations.

The effects of measurement site and ambient temperature on body temperature values in healthy older adults: a cross-sectional comparative study.

PubMed

Lu, Shu-Hua; Dai, Yu-Tzu; Yen, Chung-Jen

2009-11-01

Accurate baseline body temperature measurement is essential for assessment. Tympanic membrane temperature (TMT) measurement is popular, but there is no consensus on whether it is as accurate as oral temperature (OT) for use with the elderly at varying ambient temperature levels. To test agreement between TMT and OT measurement of body temperature among an elderly population; and to explore whether agreement between the two sites depends on ambient temperature. A cross-sectional comparison study. Two samples of older community-dwelling adults were recruited from 17 community senior citizen centers in Taipei, Taiwan in winter (n=262) and summer (n=257) of 2007. TMT and OT were simultaneously measured by electronic infrared ear thermometer and electronic digital thermometer. Ambient temperatures measured by digital thermo-hygrometer of the data collection setting were recorded when body temperature was taken. In winter mean TMT was 36.64 degrees C (S.D. 0.37), and mean OT was 36.74 degrees C (S.D. 0.18). In summer, the mean TMT was 37.05 degrees C (S.D. 0.30) and mean OT was 36.85 degrees C (S.D. 0.22). The relationship between TMT and OT were r=0.42 (p<0.001) in winter and r=0.57 (p<0.001) in summer. The values of OT were used as standard to assess the accuracy of the measurement. The bias between TMT and OT was -0.10 degrees C (S.D. 0.34) and 95% limits of agreement were 0.57 and -0.77 degrees C in winter; and bias was 0.20 degrees C (S.D. 0.25) and 95% limits of agreement were 0.69 and -0.29 degrees C in summer. The findings of this study demonstrate that the TMT has high variability that may under or over estimate body temperatures. There is a lack of agreement in body temperatures values between TMT and OT in community-dwelling elderly in both winter and summer. OT was more stable than TMT regardless of ambient temperature influences. Therefore, the oral cavity is preferable to the TM site for temperature measurement in alert elderly. The limitation of this study is that hospitalized patients who are most likely to need temperature measurement are not included in this study.

Divergent climate response on hydraulic-related xylem anatomical traits of Picea abies along a 900-m altitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Castagneri, Daniele; Petit, Giai; Carrer, Marco

2015-12-01

Climate change can induce substantial modifications in xylem structure and water transport capacity of trees exposed to environmental constraints. To elucidate mechanisms of xylem plasticity in response to climate, we retrospectively analysed different cell anatomical parameters over tree-ring series in Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.). We sampled 24 trees along an altitudinal gradient (1200, 1600 and 2100 m above sea level, a.s.l.) and processed 2335 ± 1809 cells per ring. Time series for median cell lumen area (MCA), cell number (CN), tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring-specific hydraulic conductivity (Kr) were crossed with daily temperature and precipitation records (1926-2011) to identify climate influence on xylem anatomical traits. Higher Kr at the low elevation site was due to higher MCA and CN. These variables were related to different aspects of intra-seasonal climatic variability under different environmental conditions, with MCA being more sensitive to summer precipitation. Winter precipitation (snow) benefited most parameters in all the sites. Descending the gradient, sensitivity of xylem features to summer climate shifted mostly from temperature to precipitation. In the context of climate change, our results indicate that higher summer temperatures at high elevations will benefit cell production and xylem hydraulic efficiency, whereas reduced water availability at lower elevations could negatively affect tracheids enlargement and thus stem capacity to transport water. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Environmental factors affecting feed intake of steers in different housing systems in the summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koknaroglu, H.; Otles, Z.; Mader, T.; Hoffman, M. P.

2008-07-01

A total of 188 yearling steers of predominantly Angus and Hereford breeds, with mean body weight of 299 kg, were used in this study, which started on 8 April and finished on 3 October, to assess the effects of environmental factors on feed intake of steers in various housing systems. Housing consisted of outside lots with access to overhead shelter, outside lots with no overhead shelter and a cold confinement building. Ad libitum corn, 2.27 kg of 35% dry matter whole plant sorghum silage and 0.68 kg of a 61% protein-vitamin-mineral supplement was offered. Feed that was not consumed was measured to determine feed intake. The temperature data were recorded by hygro-thermographs. Hourly temperatures and humidity were used to develop weather variables. Regression analysis was used and weather variables were regressed on dry matter intake (DMI). When addition of a new variable did not improve R 2 more than one unit, then the number of variables in the model was truncated. Cattle in confinement had lower DMI than those in open lots and those in open lots with access to an overhead shelter ( P < 0.05). Cattle in outside lots with access to overhead shelter had similar DMI compared to those in open lots ( P = 0.065). Effect of heat was predominantly displayed in August in the three housing systems. In terms of explaining variation in DMI, in outside lots with access to overhead shelter, average and daytime temperatures were important factors, whereas in open lots, nocturnal, peak and average temperatures were important factors. In confinement buildings, the previous day’s temperature and humidity index were the most important factors explaining variation in DMI. Results show the effect of housing and weather variables on DMI in summer and when considering these results, cattle producers wishing to improve cattle feedlot performance should consider housing conditions providing less stress or more comfort.

Using Seasonal Forecasts for medium-term Electricity Demand Forecasting on Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Felice, M.; Alessandri, A.; Ruti, P.

2012-12-01

Electricity demand forecast is an essential tool for energy management and operation scheduling for electric utilities. In power engineering, medium-term forecasting is defined as the prediction up to 12 months ahead, and commonly is performed considering weather climatology and not actual forecasts. This work aims to analyze the predictability of electricity demand on seasonal time scale, considering seasonal samples, i.e. average on three months. Electricity demand data has been provided by Italian Transmission System Operator for eight different geographical areas, in Fig. 1 for each area is shown the average yearly demand anomaly for each season. This work uses data for each summer during 1990-2010 and all the datasets have been pre-processed to remove trends and reduce the influence of calendar and economic effects. The choice of focusing this research on the summer period is due to the critical peaks of demand that power grid is subject during hot days. Weather data have been included considering observations provided by ECMWF ERA-INTERIM reanalyses. Primitive variables (2-metres temperature, pressure, etc) and derived variables (cooling and heating degree days) have been averaged for summer months. A particular attention has been given to the influence of persistence of positive temperature anomaly and a derived variable which count the number of consecutive days of extreme-days has been used. Electricity demand forecast has been performed using linear and nonlinear regression methods and stepwise model selection procedures have been used to perform a variable selection with respect to performance measures. Significance tests on multiple linear regression showed the importance of cooling degree days during summer in the North-East and South of Italy with an increase of statistical significance after 2003, a result consistent with the diffusion of air condition and ventilation equipment in the last decade. Finally, using seasonal climate forecasts we evaluate the performances of electricity demand forecast performed with predicted variables on Italian regions with encouraging results on the South of Italy. This work gives an initial assessment on the predictability of electricity demand on seasonal time scale, evaluating the relevance of climate information provided by seasonal forecasts for electricity management during high-demand periods.;

How do Mediterranean shrub species cope with shade? Ecophysiological response to different light intensities.

PubMed

Díaz-Barradas, M C; Zunzunegui, M; Alvarez-Cansino, L; Esquivias, M P; Valera, J; Rodríguez, H

2018-03-01

Under natural conditions, light exposure for Mediterranean shrubs can be highly variable, especially during cloudy days or under a canopy, and can interfere with other environmental factors such as temperature and water availability. With the aim of decoupling the effect of radiation and temperature from water availability, we conducted an experiment where two perennial and three summer semi-deciduous shrub species were subjected to different levels of irradiation. In order to follow plant responses to light exposure, we measured gas exchange, photosystem II photochemical efficiency, photosynthetic pigments and leaf mass area in spring and summer. Results showed that all study species presented a plastic response to different light conditions, and that light-related traits varied in a coordinated manner. Summer semi-deciduous species exhibited a more opportunistic response, with higher photosynthesis rates in full sun, but under shade conditions, the two strategies presented similar assimilation rates. Stomatal conductance did not show such a drastic response as photosynthetsis, being related to changes in WUE. Daily cycles of F v /F m revealed a slight photoinhibitory response during summer, mainly in perennial species. In all cases photosynthetic pigments adjusted to the radiation level; leaves had lower chlorophyll content, higher pool of xanthophylls and higher proportion of the de-epoxydaded state of xanthophylls under sun conditions. Lutein content increased in relation to the xanthophyll pool under shade conditions. Our results evidenced that radiation is an important driving factor controlling morphological and physiological status of Mediterranean shrub species, independently of water availability. Summer semi-deciduous species exhibit a set of traits with higher response variability, maximising their photosynthetic assimilation under different sun conditions. © 2017 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

2017-12-01

Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Subsurface low dissolved oxygen occurred at fresh- and saline-water intersection of the Pearl River estuary during the summer period.

PubMed

Li, Gang; Liu, Jiaxing; Diao, Zenghui; Jiang, Xin; Li, Jiajun; Ke, Zhixin; Shen, Pingping; Ren, Lijuan; Huang, Liangmin; Tan, Yehui

2018-01-01

Estuarine oxygen depletion is one of the worldwide problems, which is caused by the freshwater-input-derived severe stratification and high nutrients loading. In this study we presented the horizontal and vertical distributions of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Pearl River estuary, together with temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a concentration and heterotrophic bacteria abundance obtained from two cruises during the summer (wet) and winter (dry) periods of 2015. In surface water, the DO level in the summer period was lower and varied greater, as compared to the winter period. The DO remained unsaturated in the summer period if salinity is <12 and saturated if salinity is >12; while in the winter period it remained saturated throughout the estuary. In subsurface (>5m) water, the DO level varied from 0.71 to 6.65mgL -1 and from 6.58 to 8.20mgL -1 in the summer and winter periods, respectively. Particularly, we observed an area of ~1500km 2 low DO zone in the subsurface water with a threshold of 4mgDOL -1 during this summer period, that located at the fresh- and saline-water intersection where is characterized with severe stratification and high heterotrophic bacteria abundance. In addition, our results indicate that spatial DO variability in surface water was contributed differently by biological and physio-chemical variables in the summer and winter periods, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental water recycling and H2(18)-O concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; De Valpine, D. Perry; Jouzel, Jean

1993-01-01

Using a General Circulation Model (GCM) fitted with tracer diagnostics, we examine how continental moisture recycling affects the stable water isotope content of precipitation, focusing on its contribution to the 'noise' in the well-established relationship between temperature and delta O-18. On a global basis, for temperatures between -30 and 15 C, continental recycling explains more than a third of the variability in annual delta O-18 that is not explained by temperature. Recycling appears almost as important as temperature in defining delta O-18 distributions during northern hemisphere summer.

Recent recovery of surface wind speed after decadal decrease: a focus on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, JongChun; Paik, Kyungrock

2015-09-01

We investigate the multi-decadal variability of observed surface wind speed around South Korea. It is found that surface wind speed exhibits decreasing trend from mid-1950s until 2003, which is similar with the trends reported for other parts of the world. However, the decreasing trend ceases and becomes unclear since then. It is revealed that decreasing wind speed until 2003 is strongly associated with the decreasing trend of the spatial variance in both atmospheric pressure and air temperature across the East Asia for the same period. On the contrary, break of decreasing trend in surface wind speed since 2003 is associated with increasing spatial variance in surface temperature over the East Asia. Ground observation shows that surface wind speed and air temperature exhibit highly negative correlations for both summer and winter prior to 2003. However, since 2003, the correlations differ between seasons. We suggest that mechanisms behind the recent wind speed trend are different between summer and winter. This is on the basis of an interesting finding that air temperature has decreased while surface temperature has increased during winter months since 2003. We hypothesize that such contrasting temperature trends indicate more frequent movement of external cold air mass into the region since 2003. We also hypothesize that increasing summer wind speed is driven by intrusion of warm air mass into the region which is witnessed via increasing spatial variance in surface temperature across East Asia and the fact that both air and surface temperature rise together.

Southern Hemisphere origins for interannual variations of Tibetan Plateau snow cover in boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2017-12-01

The climate response to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover (TPSC) has been receiving extensive concern. However, relatively few studies have devoted to revealing the potential factors that can contribute to the TPSC variability on the interannual time scale. Especially during the boreal summer, snow cover can persist over the TP at high elevations, which exerts profound influences on the local and remote climate change. The present study finds that May Southern Hemisphere (SH) annular mode (SAM), the dominating mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the SH extratropics, exhibits a significant positive relationship with the boreal summer TPSC interannual variability. Observational analysis and numerical experiments manifest that the signal of May SAM can be "prolonged" by a meridional Indian Ocean tripole (IOT) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) via atmosphere-ocean interaction. The IOT SSTA pattern persists into the following summer and excites anomalous local-scale zonal vertical circulation. Subsequently, a positive (or negative) tropical dipole rainfall (TDR) mode is induced with deficient (or sufficient) precipitation in tropical western Indian Ocean and sufficient (or deficient) precipitation in eastern Indian Ocean-Maritime continent. Rossby wave source diagnosis reveals that the wave energies, generated by the latent heat release of the TDR mode, propagate northward into western TP. As a response, abnormal cyclonic circulation and upward movement are triggered and prevail over western TP, providing favorable dynamical conditions for more TPSC, and vice versa. Hence, the IOT SSTA plays an "ocean bridge" role and the TDR mode acts as an "atmosphere bridge" role in the process of May SAM impacting the following summer TPSC variability. The results of our work may provide new insight about the cross-equatorial propagation of the SAM influence. Keywords Southern Hemisphere annular mode; Tibetan Plateau snow cover; Rossby wave source

The monsoon system: Land-sea breeze or the ITCZ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadgil, Sulochana

2018-02-01

For well over 300 years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land-sea breeze driven by the land-ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon variability do not support this popular theory of the monsoon. An alternative hypothesis (whose origins can be traced to Blanford's (1886) remarkably perceptive analysis) in which the basic system responsible for the Indian summer monsoon is considered to be the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or the equatorial trough, is then examined and shown to be consistent with the observations. The implications of considering the monsoon as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ for the variability of the Indian summer monsoon and for identification of the monsoonal regions of the world are briefly discussed.

Linking landscape variables to cold water refugia in rivers.

PubMed

Monk, Wendy A; Wilbur, Nathan M; Curry, R Allen; Gagnon, Rolland; Faux, Russell N

2013-03-30

The protection of coldwater refugia within aquatic systems requires the identification of thermal habitats in rivers. These refugia provide critical thermal habitats for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) during periods of thermal stress, for example during summer high temperature events. This study aims to model these refugia using georeferenced thermal infrared images collected during late July 2008 and 2009 for a reach of the Cains River, New Brunswick, Canada. These images were paired with geospatial catchment variables to identify the driving factors for coldwater refugia located within tributaries to the main channel. Using Partial Least Square (PLS) Regression, results suggest that median temperatures of tributary catchments are driven by their position within the landscape including slope in addition to the density of wetlands and mixed forest within the upstream catchment. Similar results are presented when PLS models were developed to predict the magnitude of the cold water refugia (i.e. the difference between the mainstem water temperature and the thermal refugia). These results suggest that thermal infrared images can be used to predict critical summer habitats for coldwater fishes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone.

PubMed

MacDonald, G M; Kremenetski, K V; Beilman, D W

2008-07-12

The Russian treeline is a dynamic ecotone typified by steep gradients in summer temperature and regionally variable gradients in albedo and heat flux. The location of the treeline is largely controlled by summer temperatures and growing season length. Temperatures have responded strongly to twentieth-century global warming and will display a magnified response to future warming. Dendroecological studies indicate enhanced conifer recruitment during the twentieth century. However, conifers have not yet recolonized many areas where trees were present during the Medieval Warm period (ca AD 800-1,300) or the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; ca 10,000-3,000 years ago). Reconstruction of tree distributions during the HTM suggests that the future position of the treeline due to global warming may approximate its former Holocene maximum position. An increased dominance of evergreen tree species in the northern Siberian forests may be an important difference between past and future conditions. Based on the slow rates of treeline expansion observed during the twentieth century, the presence of steep climatic gradients associated with the current Arctic coastline and the prevalence of organic soils, it is possible that rates of treeline expansion will be regionally variable and transient forest communities with species abundances different from today's may develop.

Meteorological conditions during the summer 1986 CITE 2 flight series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shipham, Mark C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Bachmeier, A. Scott

1990-01-01

An overview of meteorological conditions during the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Chemical Instrumentation Testing and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 2) summer 1986 flight series is presented. Computer-generated isentropic trajectories are used to trace the history of air masses encountered along each aircraft flight path. The synoptic-scale wind fields are depicted based on Montgomery stream function analyses. Time series of aircraft-measured temperature, dew point, ozone, and altitude are shown to depict air mass variability. Observed differences between maritime tropical and maritime polar air masses are discussed.

A progressively wetter climate in southern East Africa over the past 1.3 million years.

PubMed

Johnson, T C; Werne, J P; Brown, E T; Abbott, A; Berke, M; Steinman, B A; Halbur, J; Contreras, S; Grosshuesch, S; Deino, A; Scholz, C A; Lyons, R P; Schouten, S; Damsté, J S Sinninghe

2016-09-08

African climate is generally considered to have evolved towards progressively drier conditions over the past few million years, with increased variability as glacial-interglacial change intensified worldwide. Palaeoclimate records derived mainly from northern Africa exhibit a 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycle overprinted on a pronounced 20,000-year (precession) beat, driven by orbital forcing of summer insolation, global ice volume and long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here we present a 1.3-million-year-long climate history from the Lake Malawi basin (10°-14° S in eastern Africa), which displays strong 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycles of temperature and rainfall following the Mid-Pleistocene Transition around 900,000 years ago. Interglacial periods were relatively warm and moist, while ice ages were cool and dry. The Malawi record shows limited evidence for precessional variability, which we attribute to the opposing effects of austral summer insolation and the temporal/spatial pattern of sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. The temperature history of the Malawi basin, at least for the past 500,000 years, strongly resembles past changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrigenous dust flux in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but not in global ice volume. Climate in this sector of eastern Africa (unlike northern Africa) evolved from a predominantly arid environment with high-frequency variability to generally wetter conditions with more prolonged wet and dry intervals.

Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellmann, Lena; Agafonov, Leonid; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Churakova (Sidorova, Olga; Düthorn, Elisabeth; Esper, Jan; Hülsmann, Lisa; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Moiseev, Pavel; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Nikolaev, Anatoly N.; Reinig, Frederick; Schweingruber, Fritz H.; Solomina, Olga; Tegel, Willy; Büntgen, Ulf

2016-07-01

The area covered by boreal forests accounts for ˜16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth’s carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 °N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p ≤ 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia’s northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

PubMed Central

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

2016-01-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales. PMID:27071753

An approach to evaluate the intra-urban thermal variability in summer using an urban indicator.

PubMed

Massetti, Luciano; Petralli, Martina; Brandani, Giada; Orlandini, Simone

2014-09-01

Urban planners and managers need tools to evaluate the performance of the present state and future development of cities in terms of comfort and quality of life. In this paper, an approach to analyse the intra-urban summer thermal variability, using an urban planning indicator, is presented. The proportion of buildings and concrete surfaces in a specific buffer area are calculated. Besides, the relationship between urban and temperature indicators is investigated and used to produce thermal maps of the city. This approach is applied to the analysis of intra-urban variability in Florence (Italy), of two thermal indices (heat index and cooling degree days) used to evaluate impacts on thermal comfort and energy consumption for indoor cooling. Our results suggest that urban planning indicators can describe intra-urban thermal variability in a way that can easily be used by urban planners for evaluating the effects of future urbanization scenarios on human health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garaboa-Paz, Daniel; Lorenzo, Nieves; Pérez-Muñuzuri, Vicente

2017-05-01

Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea level pressure (SLP) or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

Seasonal variability of the Red Sea, from satellite gravity, radar altimetry, and in situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahr, John; Smeed, David A.; Leuliette, Eric; Swenson, Sean

2014-08-01

Seasonal variations of sea surface height (SSH) and mass within the Red Sea are caused mostly by exchange of heat with the atmosphere and by flow through the strait opening into the Gulf of Aden to the south. That flow involves a net mass transfer into the Red Sea during fall and out during spring, though in summer there is an influx of cool water at intermediate depths. Thus, summer water in the south is warmer near the surface due to higher air temperatures, but cooler at intermediate depths. Summer water in the north experiences warming by air-sea exchange only. The temperature affects water density, which impacts SSH but has no effect on mass. We study this seasonal cycle by combining GRACE mass estimates, altimeter SSH measurements, and steric contributions derived from the World Ocean Atlas temperature climatology. Among our conclusions are: mass contributions are much larger than steric contributions; the mass is largest in winter, consistent with winds pushing water into the Red Sea in fall and out during spring; the steric signal is largest in summer, consistent with surface warming; and the cool, intermediate-depth water flowing into the Red Sea in spring has little impact on the steric signal, because contributions from the lowered temperature are offset by effects of decreased salinity. The results suggest that the combined use of altimeter and GRACE measurements can provide a useful alternative to in situ data for monitoring the steric signal.

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

2017-08-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate.

PubMed

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S A; Huang, Yongmei

2016-01-11

Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature (Tmax) in ~22-25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer Tmax, particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24-26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth.

Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Huang, Yongmei

2016-01-01

Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature () in ~22–25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer , particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24–26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth. PMID:26751166

Spatiotemporal variability of Canadian High Arctic glacier surface albedo from MODIS data, 2001-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortimer, Colleen A.; Sharp, Martin

2018-02-01

Inter-annual variations and longer-term trends in the annual mass balance of glaciers in Canada's Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) are largely attributable to changes in summer melt. The largest source of melt energy in the QEI in summer is net shortwave radiation, which is modulated by changes in glacier surface albedo. We used measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors to investigate large-scale spatial patterns, temporal trends, and variability in the summer surface albedo of QEI glaciers from 2001 to 2016. Mean summer black-sky shortwave broadband albedo (BSA) decreased at a rate of 0.029±0.025 decade-1 over that period. Larger reductions in BSA occurred in July (-0.050±0.031 decade-1). No change in BSA was observed in either June or August. Most of the decrease in BSA, which was greatest at lower elevations around the margins of the ice masses, occurred between 2007 and 2012, when mean summer BSA was anomalously low. The first principal component of the 16-year record of mean summer BSA was well correlated with the mean summer North Atlantic Oscillation index, except in 2006, 2010, and 2016, when the mean summer BSA appears to have been dominated by the August BSA. During the period 2001-2016, the mean summer land surface temperature (LST) over the QEI glaciers and ice caps increased by 0.049±0.038 °C yr-1, and the BSA record was negatively correlated (r: -0.86) with the LST record, indicative of a positive ice-albedo feedback that would increase rates of mass loss from the QEI glaciers.

Decadal Variation of the Relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High and Summer Heatwaves in East China Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Fu, C.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and summer heatwaves over Eastern China in interannual scale during the period of 1959-2016. Based on surface daily maximum temperature of 654 monitoring stations over China and meteorological variables in reanalysis data, we calculate the number of heatwave days (NHD) (one heatwave day was defined as one day with its daily maximum temperature greater than 35 degrees centigrade) as well as WPSH index and then examine their interannual relationship. Although the high-NHD-related 850hPa horizontal wind structure was shared by that of high WPSH and decaying El Niño summer, a decadal oscillation emerges for the correlation between interannual WPSH and NHD after removing their interdecadal variability by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The correlation coefficient can reach up to as high as 0.69 and as low as 0.17 and assembles the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pretty well. Compositing analysis demonstrates that unstable WPSH-NHD relationship is mainly attributed to the spatial structure distinction of WPSH and surface warming in the El Niño decaying summer of different PDO phases. In the El Niño decaying summer of positive PDO phases, remarkable enhanced warming over majority of Southeastern China matches well with the noticeable westward extension of WPSH, which seems to be forced by the cyclonic circulation anomaly over Japan. The warmer Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool intensifies the Matsuno-Gill pattern over Maritime Continent, stimulating this cyclonic circulation anomaly via the northward propagation of Rossby wave. In the El Niño decaying summer of negative PDO phases, the cooler East China Sea enhances WPSH in North China and South China Sea, and thereby leads to a local cyclonic circulation anomaly over Eastern China, which would cause a large scope of cooling and out-of-phase WPSH-NHD relationship.

Explaining the mechanisms through which regional atmospheric circulation variability drives summer temperatures and glacial melt in western High Mountain Asia (HMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Li, Xiaofeng; Pritchard, David

2017-04-01

Comprehension of mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation influences sub-regional temperature and water resources variability in high-elevation mountainous catchments is of great scientific urgency due to the dependency of large downstream populations on the river flows these basins provide. In this work we quantify a regional atmospheric pattern, the Karakoram Zonal Shear (KZS), with a very pronounced annual cycle which we standardise into a dimensionless (seasonal) circulation metric the Karakoram Zonal Index (KZI). Going beyond previous regional circulation metrics such as the "middle-upper tropospheric temperature index" (MUTTI) or the Webster and Yang Monsoonal Index (WYMI) which have focused solely on the South Asian Summer Monsoon (June to September) season, the KZS/KZI provides an indicator which captures the influence and interactions of the westerly jet throughout the entire annual cycle. Use of the KZS and KZI have led us to identify a further regional atmospheric system, the Karakoram Vortex, which propagates "warm high" (anticyclonic postitive temperature anomaly) and "cold low" (cyclonic negative temperature anomaly) patterns across a very broad swath of Central and South Asia in winter but over a much more constrained area of western HMA in summer. The KV exerts this temperature influence through a combination of adiabatic effects and large-scale advection. Quantify KV influence, the KZI shows strong and statistically significantly near surface (2m) air temperatures both across western HMA both as observed through local meteorological stations and as estimated by an ensemble of global meteorological reanalyses. We show that this strong influence on temperature translates to important consequences for meltwater generation from highly glaciated Indus river tributaries which is logical given that previous studies have established the role of air temperature in modulating glacially-derived river flows in western HMA. By improving the understanding of large-scale circulation influences on sub-regional conditions in terms of their sign, strength and the mechanisms through which it acts, the KV/KZI work substantively advances climate science in this domain. The work also thus provides a new set of criteria for assessing the skill of global circulation models in representation of western HMA climate processes.

Influence of elevated temperature and acid mine drainage on mortality of the crayfish Cambarus bartonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, K.J.; Hom, C.D.; Mazik, P.M.

2010-01-01

Effects of elevated temperature and acid mine drainage (AMD) on crayfish mortality were investigated in the Stony River, Grant County, West Virginia. During summers 2003 and 2004, four-week in situ bioassays were performed along a thermal and AMD gradient with the native crayfish Cambarus bartonii. Crayfish mortality was analyzed in conjunction with temperature and AMD related variables (pH, specific conductivity). Mortality was significantly higher (48-88%) at sites with high temperatures during 2003 (max = 33.0??C), but no significant differences were observed in 2004 (max = 32.0??C). Temperatures were higher in 2003 than 2004 due to increased discharge from a cooling reservoir flowing into the river. Additionally, duration of high temperature was approximately four days in 2003 as compared with only one day in 2004. No significant relationship between acid mine drainage variables and crayfish mortality was apparent.

Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.

2009-12-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.

Weather and Large-Scale Dust Activity during Martian Northern Spring and Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, David M.; Kleinboehl, Armin; McCleese, Daniel J.; Schofield, John Tim; Smith, Michael D.; Heavens, Nicholas

2016-10-01

Observations from MCS, TES and THEMIS now span the northern spring and summer seasons (Ls 0° to 180°) of 10 consecutive Mars Years (MY 24 through MY 33). These observations show very similar behavior each year. However, there are also noticeable differences and clear signs of inter-annual variability. To best study the three datasets, we examine zonal mean observations of the lower atmosphere (50 Pa, or ~25 km). This region was selected to provide the best quality from all three instruments. We separate the daytime (afternoon) and nighttime (early morning) data in the analysis.The climate at these seasons is dominated by the aphelion cloud belt, and 50 Pa is often close to the peak opacities in the clouds. There is also a strong diurnal thermal tide signature throughout the season at this altitude. The overall behavior is a rapid cooling at the start of the year (as the dust from the dusty season sediments out of the atmosphere) over the the first ~30° of Ls. The coldest temperatures then last until about the solstice and are followed by a slow warming trend through most of the rest of the season. The last ~30° prior to the fall equinox show a more rapid warming trend and significant inter-annual variability. In about half of the years, there is a warming event of the 50 Pa temperatures in the second half of northern summer. The warming is the signature of dust being lofted above the boundary layer, into the lower atmosphere. Due to the relatively clear atmosphere overall, even modest amounts of dust will create noticeable temperature changes. The temperature signature of the dust is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere.

Northern Russian chironomid-based modern summer temperature data set and inference models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarova, Larisa; Self, Angela E.; Brooks, Stephen J.; van Hardenbroek, Maarten; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Diekmann, Bernhard

2015-11-01

West and East Siberian data sets and 55 new sites were merged based on the high taxonomic similarity, and the strong relationship between mean July air temperature and the distribution of chironomid taxa in both data sets compared with other environmental parameters. Multivariate statistical analysis of chironomid and environmental data from the combined data set consisting of 268 lakes, located in northern Russia, suggests that mean July air temperature explains the greatest amount of variance in chironomid distribution compared with other measured variables (latitude, longitude, altitude, water depth, lake surface area, pH, conductivity, mean January air temperature, mean July air temperature, and continentality). We established two robust inference models to reconstruct mean summer air temperatures from subfossil chironomids based on ecological and geographical approaches. The North Russian 2-component WA-PLS model (RMSEPJack = 1.35 °C, rJack2 = 0.87) can be recommended for application in palaeoclimatic studies in northern Russia. Based on distinctive chironomid fauna and climatic regimes of Kamchatka the Far East 2-component WAPLS model (RMSEPJack = 1.3 °C, rJack2 = 0.81) has potentially better applicability in Kamchatka.

Twentieth Century Regional Climate Change During the Summer in the Central United States Attributed to Agricultural Intensification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alter, Ross E.; Douglas, Hunter C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-02-01

Both land use changes and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have significantly modified regional climate over the last century. In the central United States, for example, observational data indicate that rainfall increased, surface air temperature decreased, and surface humidity increased during the summer over the course of the twentieth century concurrently with increases in both agricultural production and global GHG emissions. However, the relative contributions of each of these forcings to the observed regional changes remain unclear. Results of both regional climate model simulations and observational analyses suggest that much of the observed rainfall increase—as well as the decrease in temperature and increase in humidity—is attributable to agricultural intensification in the central United States, with natural variability and GHG emissions playing secondary roles. Thus, we conclude that twentieth century land use changes contributed more to forcing observed regional climate change during the summer in the central United States than increasing GHG emissions.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Esben M.; Knutsen, Halvor; Chan, Kung-Sik; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. PMID:21245301

Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles.

PubMed

Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang

2016-01-01

Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales.

Thermal ecology of the Australian agamid Pogona barbata.

PubMed

Schäuble, Chloe S; Grigg, Gordon C

1998-05-01

This study compares the thermal ecology of male bearded dragon lizards (Pogona barbata) from south-east Queensland across two seasons: summer (1994-1995) and autumn (1995). Seasonal patterns of body temperature (T b ) were explored in terms of changes in the physical properties of the thermal environment and thermoregulatory effort. To quantify thermoregulatory effort, we compared behavioral and physiological variables recorded for observed lizards with those estimated for a thermoconforming lizard. The study lizards' field T b s varied seasonally (summer: grand daily mean (GDM) 34.6 ± 0.6°C, autumn: GDM 27.5 ± 0.3°C) as did maximum and minimum available operative temperatures (summer: GDM T max 42.1 ± 1.7°C, T min 32.2 ± 1.0°C, autumn: GDM T max 31.7 ± 1.2°C, T min 26.4 ± 0.5°C). Interestingly, the range of temperatures that lizards selected in a gradient (selected range) did not change seasonally. However, P. barbata thermoregulated more extensively and more accurately in summer than in autumn; lizards generally displayed behaviors affecting heat load nonrandomly in summer and randomly in autumn, leading to the GDM of the mean deviations of lizards' field T b s from their selected ranges being only 2.1 ± 0.5°C in summer, compared to 4.4 ± 0.5°C in autumn. This seasonal difference was not a consequence of different heat availability in the two seasons, because the seasonally available ranges of operative temperatures rarely precluded lizards from attaining field T b s within their selected range, should that have been the goal. Rather, thermal microhabitat distribution and social behavior appear to have had an important influence on seasonal levels of thermoregulatory effort.

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Early summer southern China rainfall variability and its oceanic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weijing; Ren, Hong-Chang; Zuo, Jinqing; Ren, Hong-Li

2018-06-01

Rainfall in southern China reaches its annual peak in early summer (May-June) with strong interannual variability. Using a combination of observational analysis and numerical modeling, the present study investigates the leading modes of this variability and its dynamic drivers. A zonal dipole pattern termed the southern China Dipole (SCD) is found to be the dominant feature in early summer during 1979-2014, and is closely related to a low-level anomalous anticyclone over the Philippine Sea (PSAC) and a Eurasian wave-train pattern over the mid-high latitudes. Linear regressions based on observations and numerical experiments using the CAM5 model suggest that the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies in early summer are linked to decaying El Niño-Southern Oscillation-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific, basin-scale SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, and meridional tripole-like SST anomalies in the North Atlantic in the previous winter to early summer. The tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies primarily exert an impact on the SCD through changing the polarity of the PSAC, while the North Atlantic tripole-like SST anomalies mainly exert a downstream impact on the SCD by inducing a Eurasian wave-train pattern. The North Atlantic tripole-like SST anomalies also make a relatively weak contribution to the variations of the PSAC and SCD through a subtropical teleconnection. Modeling results indicate that the three-basin combined forcing has a greater impact on the SCD and associated circulation anomalies than the individual influence from any single oceanic basin.

Summer Arctic sea ice character from satellite microwave data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carsey, F. D.

1985-01-01

It is pointed out that Arctic sea ice and its environment undergo a number of changes during the summer period. Some of these changes affect the ice cover properties and, in turn, their response to thermal and mechanical forcing throughout the year. The main objective of this investigation is related to the development of a method for estimating the areal coverage of exposed ice, melt ponds, and leads, which are the basic surface variables determining the local surface albedo. The study is based on data obtained in a field investigation conducted from Mould Bay (NWT), Nimbus 5 satellite data, and Seasat data. The investigation demonstrates that microwave data from satellites, especially microwave brightness temperature, provide good data for estimating important characteristics of summer sea ice cover.

Pink spot, white spot: the pineal skylight of the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea Vandelli 1761) skull and its possible role in the phenology of feeding migrations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, John; Jones, T. Todd; Work, Thierry M.; Balazs, George H.

2014-01-01

Leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea, which have an irregular pink area on the crown of the head known as the pineal or ‘pink spot’, forage upon jellyfish in cool temperate waters along the western and eastern margins of the North Atlantic during the summer. Our study showed that the skeletal structures underlying the pink spot in juvenile and adult turtles are compatible with the idea of a pineal dosimeter function that would support recognition of environmental light stimuli. We interrogated an extensive turtle sightings database to elucidate the phenology of leatherback foraging during summer months around Great Britain and Ireland and compared the sightings with historical data for sea surface temperatures and day lengths to assess whether sea surface temperature or light periodicity/levels were likely abiotic triggers prompting foraging turtles to turn south and leave their feeding grounds at the end of the summer. We found that sea temperature was too variable and slow changing in the study area to be useful as a trigger and suggest that shortening of day lengths as the late summer equilux is approached provides a credible phenological cue, acting via the pineal, for leatherbacks to leave their foraging areas whether they are feeding close to Nova Scotia or Great Britain and Ireland.

Metabolic profile of serum and follicular fluid from postpartum dairy cows during summer and winter.

PubMed

Alves, Benner G; Alves, Kele A; Martins, Muller C; Braga, Lucas S; Silva, Thiago H; Alves, Bruna G; Santos, Ricarda M; Silva, Thiago V; Viu, Marco A O; Beletti, Marcello E; Jacomini, José O; Gambarini, Maria L

2014-01-01

This study was designed to monitor the biochemical profiles of serum and follicular fluid (FF) of postpartum dairy cows during the summer (n=30) and winter (n=30). Blood and FF (follicles ≥ 9 mm) were obtained from Girolando cows at 30, 45, 60, 75 and 90 days postpartum. The samples were collected and analysed to determine glucose, total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), urea, sodium (Na), potassium (K) and calcium (Ca) levels. Throughout the study, the following clinical variables were measured: rectal temperature (RT), respiratory rate (RR) and body condition score (BCS). In addition, the temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated for each season. During the summer season, THI was higher, BCS decreased, there was an increase in RT, and glucose, urea, Na and K serum levels were decreased (P<0.05). The levels of TC, TG, urea, K and Ca in follicular fluid increased (P<0.05). Positive correlations (P<0.05) were observed between the serum and FF levels for glucose (r=0.29), TC (r=0.24) and Ca (r=0.30). Therefore, the biochemical profile of serum and FF of dairy cows under summer heat-stress conditions demonstrates marked changes that may impair fertility during lactation.

The influence of land cover on surface energy partitioning and evaporative fraction regimes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagley, Justin E.; Kueppers, Lara M.; Billesbach, Dave P.; Williams, Ian N.; Biraud, Sébastien C.; Torn, Margaret S.

2017-06-01

Land-atmosphere interactions are important to climate prediction, but the underlying effects of surface forcing of the atmosphere are not well understood. In the U.S. Southern Great Plains, grassland/pasture and winter wheat are the dominant land covers but have distinct growing periods that may differently influence land-atmosphere coupling during spring and summer. Variables that influence surface flux partitioning can change seasonally, depending on the state of local vegetation. Here we use surface observations from multiple sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Climate Research Facility and statistical modeling at a paired grassland/agricultural site within this facility to quantify land cover influence on surface energy balance and variables controlling evaporative fraction (latent heat flux normalized by the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes). We demonstrate that the radiative balance and evaporative fraction are closely related to green leaf area at both winter wheat and grassland/pasture sites and that the early summer harvest of winter wheat abruptly shifts the relationship between evaporative fraction and surface state variables. Prior to harvest, evaporative fraction of winter wheat is strongly influenced by leaf area and soil-atmosphere temperature differences. After harvest, variations in soil moisture have a stronger effect on evaporative fraction. This is in contrast with grassland/pasture sites, where variation in green leaf area has a large influence on evaporative fraction throughout spring and summer, and changes in soil-atmosphere temperature difference and soil moisture are of relatively minor importance.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Studies of midlatitude mesospheric temperature variability and its relationship to gravity waves, tides, and planetary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beissner, Kenneth C.

1997-10-01

Temperature observations of the middle atmosphere have been carried out from September 1993 through July 1995 using a Rayleigh backscatter lidar located at Utah State University (42oN, 111oW). Data have been analyzed to obtain absolute temperature profiles from 40 to 90 km. Various sources of error were reviewed in order to ensure the quality of the measurements. This included conducting a detailed examination of the data reduction procedure, integration methods, and averaging techniques, eliminating errors of 1-3%. The temperature structure climatology has been compared with several other mid-latitude data sets, including those from the French lidars, the SME spacecraft, the sodium lidars at Ft. Collins and Urbana, the MSISe90 model, and a high- latitude composite set from Andenes, Norway. In general, good agreement occurs at mid-latitudes, but areas of disagreement do exist. Among these, the Utah temperatures are significantly warmer than the MSISe90 temperatures above approximately 80 km, they are lower below 80 km than any of the others in summer, they show major year- to-year variability in the winter profiles, and they differ from the sodium lidar data at the altitudes where the temperature profiles should overlap. Also, comparisons between observations and a physics based global circulation model, the TIME-GCM, were conducted for a mid-latitude site. A photo-chemical model was developed to predict airglow intensity of OH based on output from the TIME-GCM. Many discrepancies between the model and observations were found, including a modeled summer mesopause too high, a stronger summer inversion not normally observed by lidar, a fall-spring asymmetry in the OH winds and lidar temperatures but not reproduced in the TIME-GCM equinoctial periods, larger winter seasonal wind tide than observed by the FPI, and a failure of the model to reverse the summertime mesospheric jet. It is our conclusion these discrepancies are due to a gravity wave parameterization in the model that is too weak and an increase will effectively align the model calculations with our observations.

Factors controlling the interannual variation of 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

2018-04-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), with its intensity being quantified by intraseasonal standard deviations based on OLR data. The spatial and interannual variations of the BSISO intensity are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period 1981-2014. The first EOF mode (EOF1) shows a spatially coherent enhancement or suppression of BSISO activity over the entire ASM region, and the interannual variability of this mode is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the central-eastern North Pacific (CNP) and tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a seesaw pattern between the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and equatorial western Pacific (EWP), with the interannual fluctuation linked with developing ENSO events. During strong years of EOF1 mode, the enhanced low-level westerlies induced by the summer-mean SSTA contrast between the warmer CNP and cooler tropical Indian Ocean tend to form a wetter moisture background over the eastern EIO, which interacts with intraseasonal low-level convergent flows, leading to stronger equatorial eastward propagation. The intensified easterly shear favors stronger northward propagation over the South Asian and Eastern Asian/Western North Pacific sectors, respectively. Opposite situation is for weak years. For interannual variations of EOF2 mode, the seesaw patterns with enhanced BSISO activity over the southeastern EIO while weakened activity over the EWP mostly occur in the La Niña developing summers, but inverse patterns appear in the El Niño developing summers.

Climate Drivers of Alaska Summer Stream Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieniek, P.; Bhatt, U. S.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R.; Trammell, E. J.

2016-12-01

The temperature of the water in lakes, rivers and streams has wide ranging impacts from local water quality and fish habitats to global climate change. Salmon fisheries in Alaska, a critical source of food in many subsistence communities, are sensitive to large-scale climate variability and river and stream temperatures have also been linked with salmon production in Alaska. Given current and projected climate change, understanding the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate and river and stream temperatures is essential to better understand the changes that may occur with aquatic life in Alaska's waterways on which subsistence users depend. An analysis of Alaska stream temperatures in the context of reanalysis, downscaled, station and other climate data is undertaken in this study to fill that need. Preliminary analysis identified eight stream observation sites with sufficiently long (>15 years) data available for climate-scale analysis in Alaska with one station, Terror Creek in Kodiak, having a 30-year record. Cross-correlation of summer (June-August) water temperatures between the stations are generally high even though they are spread over a large geographic region. Correlation analysis of the Terror Creek summer observations with seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific broadly resembles the SST anomaly fields typically associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A similar result was found for the remaining stations and in both cases PDO-like correlation patterns also occurred in the preceding spring. These preliminary results demonstrate that there is potential to diagnose the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate system and Alaska stream temperatures.

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

2018-05-01

The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

Noctilucent cloud formation and the effects of water vapor variability on temperatures in the middle atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckay, C. P.

1985-01-01

To investigate the occurrence of low temperatures and the formation of noctilucent clouds in the summer mesosphere, a one-dimensional time-dependent photochemical-thermal numerical model of the atmosphere between 50 and 120 km has been constructed. The model self-consistently solves the coupled photochemical and thermal equations as perturbation equations from a reference state assumed to be in equilibrium and is used to consider the effect of variability in water vapor in the lower mesosphere on the temperature in the region of noctilucent cloud formation. It is found that change in water vapor from an equilibrium value of 5 ppm at 50 km to a value of 10 ppm, a variation consistent with observations, can produce a roughly 15 K drop in temperature at 82 km. It is suggested that this process may produce weeks of cold temperatures and influence noctilucent cloud formation.

Winter temperature conditions (1670-2010) reconstructed from varved sediments, western Canadian High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Benjamin; Lamoureux, Scott F.; Boreux, Maxime P.

2017-09-01

Advances in paleoclimatology from the Arctic have provided insights into long-term climate conditions. However, while past annual and summer temperature have received considerable research attention, comparatively little is known about winter paleoclimate. Arctic winter is of special interest as it is the season with the highest sensitivity to climate change, and because it differs substantially from summer and annual measures. Therefore, information about past changes in winter climate is key to improve our knowledge of past forced climate variability and to reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this context, Arctic lakes with snowmelt-fed catchments are excellent potential winter climate archives. They respond strongly to snowmelt-induced runoff, and indirectly to winter temperature and snowfall conditions. To date, only a few well-calibrated lake sediment records exist, which appear to reflect site-specific responses with differing reconstructions. This limits the possibility to resolve large-scale winter climate change prior the instrumental period. Here, we present a well-calibrated quantitative temperature and snowfall record for the extended winter season (November through March; NDJFM) from Chevalier Bay (Melville Island, NWT, Canadian Arctic) back to CE 1670. The coastal embayment has a large catchment influenced by nival terrestrial processes, which leads to high sedimentation rates and annual sedimentary structures (varves). Using detailed microstratigraphic analysis from two sediment cores and supported by μ-XRF data, we separated the nival sedimentary units (spring snowmelt) from the rainfall units (summer) and identified subaqueous slumps. Statistical correlation analysis between the proxy data and monthly climate variables reveals that the thickness of the nival units can be used to predict winter temperature (r = 0.71, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) and snowfall (r = 0.65, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) for the western Canadian High Arctic over the last ca. 400 years. Results reveal a strong variability in winter temperature back to CE 1670 with the coldest decades reconstructed for the period CE 1800-1880, while the warmest decades and major trends are reconstructed for the period CE 1880-1930 (0.26°C/decade) and CE 1970-2010 (0.37°C/decade). Although the first aim of this study was to increase the paleoclimate data coverage for the winter season, the record from Chevalier Bay also holds great potential for more applied climate research such as data-model comparisons and proxy-data assimilation in climate model simulations.

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

PubMed Central

Büntgen, Ulf; Raible, Christoph C.; Frank, David; Helama, Samuli; Cunningham, Laura; Hofer, Dominik; Nievergelt, Daniel; Verstege, Anne; Timonen, Mauri; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Esper, Jan

2011-01-01

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years. PMID:21966436

An investigation of a low-variability tire treadwear test procedure and of treadwear adjustment for ambient temperature. Volume 1 : the test procedures, statistical analyses, and the findings

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-01-01

The program was conducted to evaluate the variation in tire treadwear rates as : experienced on identical vehicles during the various environmental exposure : conditions of the winter, spring, and summer seasons. The diurnal/nocturnal effect : on the...

Spatial and temporal variability in distribution of water masses in Hornsund, Spitsbergen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Promińska, Agnieszka; Falck, Eva; Walczowski, Waldemar; Sundfjord, Arild

2016-04-01

Arctic fjords constitute an important part of many recent investigations because this is the place where different water masses meet, mix, and transform, influencing the stability of glaciers. Hornsund, the southernmost fjord of West Spitsbergen, has been studied during the past 15 years. Observations were based primarily on high resolution measurements of water temperature and salinity along fixed sections, that have been performed every July between 2001-2015. Research carried out in years 2010 - 2015 under Polish - Norwegian projects AWAKE and AWAKE-2 allowed for expansion of the database with data covering the period from spring to autumn. During this time measurements were also conducted from a small boat in the vicinity of glaciers with a time resolution of 1-2 weeks in addition to a mooring system deployed in the fjord and on the shelf just outside Hornsund. Synthesis of our measurements give an overview of water masses observed in the fjord. From summer to summer observations reveal high variability in water temperature and salinity giving a distinct division into an area influenced by oceanic factors (Main Basin) and an area which is more influenced by local factors (Brepollen). The chronology of water mass transformation has been obtained indicating a time of transition between winter (Arctic type), additionally interrupted by temporary inflow of waters of Atlantic origin, and summer (Atlantic type) conditions.

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions.

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet condition since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-04-01

Highlight: this paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since 1300 AD, involving: 1. A well-dated, 1.5 year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China; 2. Links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet condition, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China; 3. Correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO index. We present a highly precisely 230Th/U dated, 1.5 year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in Wuling mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents exhibits at least 15 drought events in the Wuling mountain and adjacent areas during the Little Ice Age, in which some of them were corresponding to megadrought events in the broad Asian monsoonal region of China. Thus, the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon precipitation and dry-wet condition in Wuling mountain area. The eastern China temperature varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperature under stronger solar irradiation which produces stronger summer monsoon. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal time scales. On interannual time scale, dry conditions in the studying area were prevailing under El Niño condition, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter condition under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods and vice versa; During cold periods, the Walker circulation will shift toward central Pacific under El Niño condition, resulting further weakening of Asian summer monsoon. However, the δ18O of LHD1 record is positively correlated with temperature after ~1940 AD which is opposite to the δ18O - temperature relationship in earlier time. This anomaly relationship might be caused by the greenhouse-gas forcing.

Recent 121-year variability of western boundary upwelling in the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Peng, Zicheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Zhou, Renjun; Song, Shaohua; Shi, Zhengguo; Chen, Tegu; Wei, Gangjian; Delong, Kristine L.

2013-06-01

upwelling is typically related to the eastern boundary upwelling system, whereas the powerful southwest Asian summer monsoon can also generate significant cold, nutrient-rich deep water in western coastal zones. Here we present a sea surface temperature record (A.D. 1876-1996) derived from coral Porites Sr/Ca for an upwelling zone in the northern South China Sea. The upwelling-induced sea surface temperature anomaly record reveals prominent multidecadal variability driven by Asian summer monsoon dynamics with an abrupt transition from warmer to colder conditions in 1930, and a return to warmer conditions after 1960. Previous studies suggest the expected increase in atmospheric CO2 for the coming decades may result in intensification in the eastern boundary upwelling system, which could enhance upwelling of CO2-rich deep water thus exacerbating the impact of acidification in these productive zones. In contrast, the weakening trend since 1961 in the upwelling time series from the northern South China Sea suggests moderate regional ocean acidification from upwelling thus a stress relief for marine life in this region.

The long-term effect of urbanization and anthropogenic heat release on climate across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Feng, J.

2013-12-01

The human activities impact on the urban heat island (UHI) is directly through anthropogenic heat release, and indirectly through the land use configuration. In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is employed to simulate the regional impacts on climate under the two scenarios in China: the underlying surface changes due to urbanization (USCU), and anthropogenic heat release (AHR). Three experiments were performed from January 2000 to February 2010. USCU decreases the summer and winter low cloud cover over most east China, and almost the energy flux increase except that the latent heat and the up solar wave, summer temperature increases obviously, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta region with an increase of 1.13°C and 1.22°C; AHR increases the variable change including the low cloud cover and all the energy flux and temperatures; the most striking winter temperature change region occurs also in the Yangtze River Delta region added by 0.63°C. USCU has the greatest impact on the summer precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which has reduced amplitude value of 20.43 percent. The USCU decreases the surface soil humidity and increases the surface soil temperature in most east China. In the three urban agglomerations, summer surface wind increases apparently but winter surface wind reduce obviously affected by USCU. The low pressure level is the south wind with the amplitude less than 1m/s and the two cyclonic vorticity exists in the summer, there is the same wind direction in the winter, but without the apparent cyclonic vorticity and small wind speed under the USCU. In the AHR, the prevailing wind direction is north wind and two rise circulation between 30°N and 40°N in the summer, the principal winter wind direction is south with the same two rise circulation nearby former two latitude. The summer index almost increases under the USCU scenario, but AHR make it decrease.

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

2001-01-01

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Assessment of the uncertainty in future projection for summer climate extremes over the East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Changyong; Min, Seung-Ki; Cha, Dong-Hyun

2017-04-01

Future projections of climate extremes in regional and local scales are essential information needed for better adapting to climate changes. However, future projections hold larger uncertainty factors arising from internal and external processes which reduce the projection confidence. Using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model simulations, we assess uncertainties in future projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation extremes focusing on summer. In examining future projection, summer mean and extreme projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation would be larger as time. Moreover, uncertainty cascades represent wider scenario difference and inter-model ranges with increasing time. A positive mean-extreme relation is found in projections for both temperature and precipitation. For the assessment of uncertainty factors for these projections, dominant uncertainty factors from temperature and precipitation change as time. For uncertainty of mean and extreme temperature, contributions of internal variability and model uncertainty declines after mid-21st century while role of scenario uncertainty grows rapidly. For uncertainty of mean precipitation projections, internal variability is more important than the scenario uncertainty. Unlike mean precipitation, extreme precipitation shows that the scenario uncertainty is expected to be a dominant factor in 2090s. The model uncertainty holds as an important factor for both mean and extreme precipitation until late 21st century. The spatial changes for the uncertainty factors of mean and extreme projections generally are expressed according to temporal changes of the fraction of total variance from uncertainty factors in many grids of the East Asia. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

2017-11-01

Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

North Atlantic early 20th century warming and impact on European summer: Mechanisms and Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

During the last century, substantial climate variations in the North Atlantic have occurred, such as the warmings in the 1920s and 1990s. Such variations are considered to be part of the variability known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variations (AMV) and have a strong impact on local climates such as European summers. Here a synthesis of previous works is presented which describe the occurrence of the warming in the 1920s in the North Atlantic and its impact on the European summer climate (Müller et al. 2014, 2015). For this the 20th century reanalysis (20CR) and 20CR forced ocean experiments are evaluated. It can be shown that the North Atlantic Current and Sub-Polar Gyre are strengthened as a result of an increased pressure gradient over the North Atlantic. Concurrently, Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) increase. The intensified NAC, SPG, and AMOC redistribute sub-tropical water into the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, thereby increasing observed and modelled temperature and salinity during the 1920s. Further a mechanism is proposed by which North Atlantic heat fluxes associated with the AMV modulate European decadal summer climate (Ghosh et al. 2016). By using 20CR, it can be shown that multi-decadal variations in the European summer temperature are associated to a linear baroclinic atmospheric response to the AMV-related surface heat flux. This response induce a sea level pressure structure modulating meridional temperature advection over north-western Europe and Blocking statistics over central Europe. This structure is shown to be the leading mode of variability and is independent of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Ghosh, R., W.A. Müller, J. Bader, and J. Baehr, 2016: Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.10007/s00382-016-3283-4 Müller W. A., D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann,G. P. Compo, and J. Marotzke, 2015: A 20th-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s, Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2267-5 Müller, W. A., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, and D. Smith, 2014: Decadal climate prediction for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp 2100-2107.

Phage bacteriolysis, protistan bacterivory potential, and bacterial production in a freshwater reservoir: coupling with temperature.

PubMed

Pradeep Ram, A S; Boucher, D; Sime-Ngando, T; Debroas, D; Romagoux, J C

2005-07-01

Phage abundance and infection of bacterioplankton were studied from March to November 2003 in the Sep Reservoir (Massif Central, France), together with temperature, chlorophyll, bacteria (abundance and production), and heterotrophic nanoflagellates (abundance and potential bacterivory). Virus abundance (VA) ranged from 0.6 to 13 x 10(10) viruses l(-1), exceeding bacterial abundance (BA) approximately sixfold on average. In terms of carbon, viruses corresponded to up to 25% of bacterial biomass. A multiple regression model indicated that BA was the best predictor for VA (R(2) = 0.75). The frequency of infected bacteria (estimated from the percentage of visibly infected cells) varied from 1% to 32% and was best explained by a combination of temperature (R(2) = 0.20) and bacterial production (R(2) = 0.25). Viruses and flagellates contributed about equally to bacterial mortality. Both factors destroyed 55% of bacterial production, with a shift from phage bacteriolysis in early spring to protistan bacterivory in late summer. The vertical differences in most of the biological variables were not significant, contrasting with the seasonal differences (i.e., spring vs. summer-autumn). All biological variables under study were indeed significantly coupled to temperature. We regarded this to be the consequence of the enhanced discharge of the reservoir in 2003 (compared to previous years). This substantially weakened the stability and the thermal inertia of the water column, thereby establishing temperature as a stronger forcing factor in setting the conditions for optimal metabolic activity of microbial communities.

Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, J.; García, R.; Velázquez de Castro, F.; Hernández, E.; López, C.; Otero, A.

2002-04-01

The effects of heat waves on the population have been described by different authors and a consistent relationship between mortality and temperature has been found, especially in elderly subjects. The present paper studies this effect in Seville, a city in the south of Spain, known for its climate of mild winters and hot summers, when the temperature frequently exceeds 40 °C. This study focuses on the summer months (June to September) for the years from 1986 to 1997. The relationships between total daily mortality and different specific causes for persons older than 65 and 75 years, of each gender, were analysed. Maximum daily temperature and relative humidity at 7.00 a.m. were introduced as environmental variables. The possible confounding effect of different atmospheric pollutants, particularly ozone, were considered. The methodology employed was time series analysis using Box-Jenkins models with exogenous variables. On the basis of dispersion diagrams, we defined extremely hot days as those when the maximum daily temperature surpassed 41 °C. The ARIMA model clearly shows the relationship between temperature and mortality. Mortality for all causes increased up to 51% above the average in the group over 75 years for each degree Celsius beyond 41 °C. The effect is more noticeable for cardiovascular than for respiratory diseases, and more in women than in men. Among the atmospheric pollutants, a relation was found between mortality and concentrations of ozone, especially for men older than 75.

A Tibetan lake sediment record of Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Broxton W.; Polisar, Pratigya J.; Lei, Yanbin; Thompson, Lonnie G.; Yao, Tandong; Finney, Bruce P.; Bain, Daniel J.; Pompeani, David P.; Steinman, Byron A.

2014-08-01

Sedimentological data and hydrogen isotopic measurements of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes (δDwax) from an alpine lake sediment archive on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (Paru Co) provide a Holocene perspective of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) activity. The sedimentological data reflect variations in lake level and erosion related to local ISM rainfall over the Paru Co catchment, whereas δDwax reflects integrated, synoptic-scale ISM dynamics. Our results indicate that maximum ISM rainfall occurred between 10.1 and ˜5.2 ka, during which time there were five century-scale high and low lake stands. After 5.2 ka, the ISM trended toward drier conditions to the present, with the exception of a pluvial event centered at 0.9 ka. The Paru Co results share similarities with paleoclimate records from across the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting millennial-scale ISM dynamics were expressed coherently. These millennial variations largely track gradual decreases in orbital insolation, the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), decreasing zonal Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and cooling surface air temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau. Centennial ISM and lake-level variability at Paru Co closely track reconstructed surface air temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau, but may also reflect Indian Ocean Dipole events, particularly during the early Holocene when ENSO variability was attenuated. Variations in the latitude of the ITCZ during the early and late Holocene also appear to have exerted an influence on centennial ISM rainfall.

European Temperature Variability and Climate Forcing Over The Last 500 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luterbacher, J.; Wanner, H.; Dietrich, D.; Friedli, T. K.

We present seasonal temperature reconstructions back to 1500 for the European land areas (30W-40E; 35N-70N) on a dense 0.5x0.5 latitude by longitude grid. The reconstructions were developed using PC regression analysis based on the combina- tion of early instrumental station series of temperature and pressure and proxy data from Eurasian sites. The statistical relationships were derived over the 1901-1995 in- strumental period (New et al. 2000) and applied to the pre-1900 data. The reliability of the reconstruction and the time-dependent uncertainty ranges about the estimates are discussed. We derived a high precision winter (DJF), summer (JJA) and annual (J-D) mean Eu- ropean temperature time series from 1500-1998 through averaging of all the 5100 land gridpoints. We found several cold relapses and warm intervals on the decadal timescale, on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was superimposed. Warmer European winters were experienced in the first third of the 16th century, at the beginning of the 17th century and generally in the 20th century. The warmest decade was 1989-1998. Cooler winter conditions were found in the second part of the 16th century, during the Maunder Minimum and in most parts of the 19th century. The coldest decades in winter temperatures were 1586-1595 and the 1690s with 1.5C lower values compared to the 1961-1990 mean. Warm summers were observed from around 1530 to 1570, from the 1750s to the early 19th century, around 1950 and at the end of the 20th century. 1789-1798 and the 1990s were the warmest decades in summer temperatures. Cooler summer periods were prevalent from the 1570s to the beginning of the 17th century, in the middle of the 18th century and at the turn of the 20th century. The summers from 1902-1916 were among the coldest over the last 500 years. The low pass filtered timeseries of the annually averaged temperatures from 1500- 1950 were mainly below the 1961-1990 average. The yearly mean European tempera- ture are partly in agreement with Northern Hemispheric temperature variations (Mann et al. 1998). Finally, the statistical relationship between European annual temperature and recent estimates of climate forcing time series (Robertson et al. 2001) are presented.

ENSO variability of Quelccaya Ice Cap δ18O driven by monsoon control of vapor isotope ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurley, J. V.; Vuille, M. F.; Hardy, D. R.

2016-12-01

The δ18O from the Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), Peru corresponds with and has been used to reconstruct Nino region SSTs but the physical mechanisms that tie ENSO-variable equatorial Pacific SSTs to snow δ18O at 5680 m in the Andes have not been fully described. We use a proxy system forward model to simulate and explore ENSO variable snow δ18O at the QIC, which is observed and accurately simulated with our model to be respectively higher and lower than average during El Nino and La Nina. We then explore the relative roles of ENSO-forcing on components of the forward model: the seasonality of snowfall at the QIC, vapor initial δ18O values, and temperature. The local hydrologic cycle is characterized by earlier onset and reduced duration of peak snowfall during El Nino, and more snow accumulation during La Nina. When we isolate the influence of the local hydrologic cycle in the forward model, El Nino and La Nina snowfall seasonalities yield respectively higher and lower snow δ18O values, compared with the control simulation. The South American summer monsoon (SASM) is characterized by enhanced convection over the Amazon during La Nina and as a consequence, lower vapor δ18O values over the western Amazon Basin. When we isolate the influence of the vapor initial delta-value in the forward model, higher initial delta-values during El Nino yield higher snow δ18O at the QIC. The seasonality of temeratures over the western Amazon Basin and near Quelccaya is amplified during El Nino when there are higher and lower temperatures respectively during austral summer and winter. When we isolate the temperature influence in the forward model, the warmer summer El Nino conditions require a more humid initial vapor and result in lower snow δ18O values. Most (more than two-thirds) of the ENSO variability in QIC δ18O can be accounted for by SASM activity and its influence on the vapor initial delta-value.

Vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer over Ranchi during the summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sagarika; Srivastava, Nishi; Kumar, Manoj

2018-04-01

Thermodynamic structure and variability in the atmospheric boundary layer have been investigated with the help of balloon-borne GPS radiosonde over a monsoon trough station Ranchi (Lat. 23°45'N, Long. 85°43'E, India) during the summer monsoon season (June-September) for a period of 2011-2013. Virtual potential temperature gradient method is used for the determination of mixed layer height (MLH). The MLH has been found to vary in the range of 1000-1300 m during the onset, 600-900 m during the active and 1400-1750 m during the break phase of monsoon over this region. Inter-annual variations noticed in MLH could be associated with inter-annual variability in convection and rainfall prevailing over the region. Along with the MLH, the cloud layer heights are also derived from the thermodynamic profiles for the onset, active and break phases of monsoon. Cloud layer height varied a lot during different phases of the monsoon. For the determination of boundary-layer convection, thermodynamic parameter difference (δθ = θ es- θ e) between saturated equivalent potential temperature (θ es ) and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) is used. It is a good indicator of convection and indicates the intense and suppressed convection during different phases of monsoon.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Soil moisture and soil temperature variability among three plant communities in a High Arctic Lake Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, M. L.; Konkel, J.; Welker, J. M.; Schaeffer, S. M.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture and soil temperature are critical to plant community distribution and soil carbon cycle processes in High Arctic tundra. As environmental drivers of soil biochemical processes, the predictability of soil moisture and soil temperature by vegetation zone in High Arctic landscapes has significant implications for the use of satellite imagery and vegetation distribution maps to estimate of soil gas flux rates. During the 2017 growing season, we monitored soil moisture and soil temperature weekly at 48 sites in dry tundra, moist tundra, and wet grassland vegetation zones in a High Arctic lake basin. Soil temperature in all three communities reflected fluctuations in air temperature throughout the season. Mean soil temperature was highest in the dry tundra community at 10.5±0.6ºC, however, did not differ between moist tundra and wet grassland communities (2.7±0.6 and 3.1±0.5ºC, respectively). Mean volumetric soil moisture differed significantly among all three plant communities with the lowest and highest soil moisture measured in the dry tundra and wet grassland (30±1.2 and 65±2.7%), respectively. For all three communities, soil moisture was highest during the early season snow melt. Soil moisture in wet grassland remained high with no significant change throughout the season, while significant drying occurred in dry tundra. The most significant change in soil moisture was measured in moist tundra, ranging from 61 to 35%. Our results show different gradients in soil moisture variability within each plant community where: 1) soil moisture was lowest in dry tundra with little change, 2) highest in wet grassland with negligible change, and 3) variable in moist tundra which slowly dried but remained moist. Consistently high soil moisture in wet grassland restricts this plant community to areas with no significant drying during summer. The moist tundra occupies the intermediary areas between wet grassland and dry tundra and experiences the widest range of soil moisture variability. As climate projections predict wetter summers in the High Arctic, expansion of areas with seasonally inundated soils and increased soil moisture variability could result in an expansion of wet grassland and moist tundra communities with a commensurate decrease in dry tundra area.

Assessment of indoor heat stress variability in summer and during heat warnings: a case study using the UTCI in Berlin, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walikewitz, Nadine; Jänicke, Britta; Langner, Marcel; Endlicher, Wilfried

2018-01-01

Humans spend most of their time in confined spaces and are hence primarily exposed to the direct influence of indoor climate. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was obtained in 31 rooms (eight buildings) in Berlin, Germany, during summer 2013 and 2014. The indoor UTCI was determined from measurements of both air temperature and relative humidity and from data of mean radiant temperature and air velocity, which were either measured or modeled. The associated outdoor UTCI was obtained through facade measurements of air temperature and relative humidity, simulation of mean radiant temperature, and wind data from a central weather station. The results show that all rooms experienced heat stress according to UTCI levels, especially during heat waves. Indoor UTCI varied up to 6.6 K within the city and up to 7 K within building. Heat stress either during day or at night occurred on 35 % of all days. By comparing the day and night thermal loads, we identified maximum values above the 32 °C threshold for strong heat stress during the nighttime. Outdoor UTCI based on facade measurements provided no better explanation of indoor UTCI variability than the central weather station. In contrast, we found a stronger relationship of outdoor air temperature and indoor air temperature. Building characteristics, such as the floor level or window area, influenced indoor heat stress ambiguously. We conclude that indoor heat stress is a major hazard, and more effort toward understanding the causes and creating effective countermeasures is needed.

Summer diapause induced by high temperatures in the oriental tobacco budworm: ecological adaptation to hot summers.

PubMed

Liu, Zhudong; Xin, Yucui; Zhang, Yanan; Fan, Jianting; Sun, Jianghua

2016-06-07

Summer diapause in Helicoverpa assulta (Hübner), which prolongs the pupal stage, particularly in males, is induced by high temperatures. In the laboratory, 3(rd)-, 4(th)-, 6(th)-instar and prepupal larvae were exposed to high temperatures - 33 and 35 °C with a photoperiod of LD16:8 - until pupation to induce summer diapause. The results showed that the incidence of summer diapause was influenced by temperature, stage exposed, and sex. The higher the temperature, the more often summer diapause was attained. Sixth-instar and prepupal larvae were the sensitive stages for summer diapause induction. H. assulta summer-diapausing pupae needed diapause development to resume development when temperatures became favorable. Furthermore, both body mass and energy storage capacity (lipid and glycogen) were significantly affected by diapause rather than sex, and were significantly higher in summer-diapausing pupae than in non-diapausing pupae. In addition, the body mass loss and respiration rate showed that the rate of metabolism in the summer-diapausing pupae was consistently lower than in non-diapausing pupae, which were significantly affected by diapause and pupal age. We conclude that summer diapause in H. assulta is a true diapause, and H. assulta has evolved mechanisms to accumulate energy storage and to lower its metabolism to adapt to hot summers.

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bohar; Cash, Ben; Kinter, James L., III

2018-04-01

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982-2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

PubMed

Tomasek, Bradley J; Williams, Martin M; Davis, Adam S

2017-01-01

As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Seasonal and interannual variability of surface CDOM in the South China Sea associated with El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jinfeng; Zhan, Haigang; Du, Yan

2011-04-01

Satellite imagery of SeaWiFS from October 1997 to November 2007 is used to investigate the dominant seasonal and interannual variations of the surface light absorption due to Colored Dissolved Organic Materials (CDOM) in the South China Sea (SCS). Results show that the spatial distribution of CDOM mimics the major features of the SCS basin-scale circulation. High values of CDOM are found in upwelling regions like southeast of Vietnam in summer and northwest of Luzon in winter. At a basin scale, CDOM is high in winter when upwelling is strong, solar shortwave radiation and stratification weak, and vertical mixing intense. Opposite conditions exist in spring and summer. Interannual variability of the basin-wide CDOM is characterized by abnormal troughs during the El Niño events. A strong relationship exists between the time series of the first EOF mode (for both winter and summer) and Niño 3.4 Index. Associations of these events with climatic and hydrographic properties (i.e. wind forcing, solar shortwave radiation, Ekman pumping, vertical mixing, sea surface height and temperature) are discussed.

Climatic variability effects on summer cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa-Morocho, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004). This paper analyses the evolution of the yield anomalies of irrigated maize in several representative agricultural locations in Spain with contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and compare it to the evolution of different patterns of climate variability, extending the methodology of Porter and Semenov (2005). To simulate maize yields observed daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. These data were obtained from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET). Time series of simulated maize yields were computed with CERES-maize model for periods ranging from 22 to 49 years, depending on the observed climate data available for each location. The computed standardized anomalies yields were projected on different oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields and the resulting patterns were compared with a set of documented patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results can be useful also for climate change impact assessment, providing a scientific basis for selection of climate change scenarios where combined natural and forced variability represent a hazard for agricultural production. Interpretation of impact projections would also be enhanced.

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

2017-04-01

We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the ;weather regimes;) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

Monitoring Impacts of Long-Term Drought on Surface Water Quantity and Quality in Middle Rio Grande Basin Reservoirs Using Multispectral Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubako, S. T.; Hargrove, W. L.

2017-12-01

The Elephant Butte and Caballo dams form the largest surface water reservoirs in the Middle Rio Grande basin. The basin supports more than 2 million people, including the major urban centers of Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico, El Paso, Texas, and Las Cruces, New Mexico, plus more than 70,000 ha of land with water rights for irrigated agriculture. However, this region has experienced severe droughts and growing water demand over the past few decades. This study applied GIS and remote sensing techniques to (1) quantify the shrinking and expansion of the reservoirs for the 44-year period 1973-2017; (2) demonstrate the use of multispectral satellite imagery for qualitative assessment of reservoir water turbidity; and (3) investigate and compare annual and seasonal variability of reservoir temperature. Our preliminary results show apparent shrinkage and recovery cycles of both reservoirs, depending on annual inflow and diversion cycles. For example, the period 1981 to 1993 was unusually `wet' on average, in contrast to the period around September 2002 when the Elephant Butte reservoir shrinked to less than 11 percent of its capacity due to drought. Water in the reservoirs appears more turbid in the fall compared to the summer season, and satellite images showed distinctive zones of deep and shallow water, with evident sedimentation near the in-flow of each reservoir. Examination of image digital numbers revealed the following three distinct temperature zones: scrub environment around the reservoirs, very shallow water around reservoir edges, and deeper reservoir water. The zones were represented by a higher range of digital numbers in the summer in comparison to the fall season, indicating greater surface temperature variability in the summer season. The distinction between high summer temperatures and low fall temperatures was especially prominent along the shallow edges of each reservoir. The fluctuating thermal patterns can be explained by variations in depth, currents, and relationships to water input to the two reservoirs. The study contributes to a better understanding of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on reservoir surface area fluctuations, water quality and quantity impacts due to evaporation and consumptive use, and provides historical and baseline data for future water management decisions.

Satellite-based Monotoring of mitiple natural disasters in Mongolian socio-ecological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Sinkyu

2016-04-01

In this presentation, a conceptual mechanisms how multiple natural hazards (i.e. drought, dust storm, land degradation, and Dzud) in Mongolia are linked with each other and how satellite earth observation (EO) data can be utilized to analyze cause-and results relations and to predict the natural hazards. Massive loss of livestock and wildlife animal during winter seasons (dzud) is an endemic climatic disaster in the Central Asia grasslands but the mechanisms are not well understood yet. Recent national-wide sever Dzud occurred during 2009-2010 winter in Mongolia. Whereas, high stocking rate of livestock may give negative effects on sustainable use of pastureland. Dzud is a natural mechanism reducing grazing pressure when stocking rate is high enough to cause the negative effect. Both Dzud and land degradation were directly linked with drought phenomena, which is associated with dust storm occurrence because those conditions can cause sparse vegetation and increase of sensible heat generating strong vertical wind. At a lower level of administration (i.e., soum), stepwise multiple regression analysis was conducted to find significant factors of inter-annual livestock change. For a period from 2003 to 2010, various datasets were prepared from national census and satellite data (summer and winter temperature and precipitation, and summer dryness and vegetation index, NDVI). As results, linear regression models were successfully produced at 70% of soums studied. Summer and winter variables appeared equally important in controlling livestock dynamics. Single-factor models were predominant. The primary factor of each soum showed certain regional patterns incident well with climate severity and foraging resource availability (e.g. temperature in north, dryness in south, and NDVI in middle). Our results indicate that Mongolian pastoral livelihood is highly vulnerable to extreme variability of endemic regional climate factors and hence, there are still rooms for enhancing socio-ecological adaptive capacity such as herder's preparedness and governance. We illustrate the seasonal climate-vegetation-livestock interactions with a simplified schematic mechanism model. Our schematic model refined it to give better process-oriented relationships among key variables. Seasonal temperature and precipitation are the primary forcing variables to determine vegetation growth and livestock accessibility to food resources and dryness. Summer standing biomass and winter dry biomass (i.e. residue) were separated and associated with seasonal livestock foraging, respectively. By its mechanistic nature, the schematic model can be applied to test statistical significance of factors associated with annual livestock change or to provide logical grounds on developing a dynamic numerical model in future.

Equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface current variability in an Ocean General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanaseelan, C.; Deshpande, Aditi

2018-03-01

The variability of subsurface currents in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied using high resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations during 1958-2009. February-March eastward equatorial subsurface current (ESC) shows weak variability whereas strong variability is observed in northern summer and fall ESC. An eastward subsurface current with maximum amplitude in the pycnocline is prominent right from summer to winter during strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years when air-sea coupling is significant. On the other hand during weak IOD years, both the air-sea coupling and the ESC are weak. This strongly suggests the role of ESC on the strength of IOD. The extension of the ESC to the summer months during the strong IOD years strengthens the oceanic response and supports intensification and maintenance of IODs through modulation of air sea coupling. Although the ESC is triggered by equatorial winds, the coupled air-sea interaction associated with IODs strengthens the ESC to persist for several seasons thereby establishing a positive feedback cycle with the surface. This suggests that the ESC plays a significant role in the coupled processes associated with the evolution and intensification of IOD events by cooling the eastern basin and strengthening thermocline-SST (sea surface temperature) interaction. As the impact of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon is significant only during strong IOD years, understanding and monitoring the evolution of ESC during these years is important for summer monsoon forecasting purposes. There is a westward phase propagation of anomalous subsurface currents which persists for a year during strong IOD years, whereas such persistence or phase propagation is not seen during weak IOD years, supporting the close association between ESC and strength of air sea coupling during strong IOD years. In this study we report the processes which strengthen the IOD events and the air sea coupling associated with IOD. It also unravels the connection between equatorial Indian Ocean circulation and evolution and strengthening of IOD.

Correlation and Return Interval Analysis of Tree Rings Based Temperature and Precipitation Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunde, A.; Ludescher, J.; Luterbacher, J.; von Storch, H.

2012-04-01

We analyze tree rings based summer temperature and precipitation reconstructions from Central Europe covering the past 2500y [1], by (i) autocorrelation functions, (ii) detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA2) and (iii) the Haar wavelet technique (WT2). We also study (iv) the PDFs of the return intervals for return periods of 5y, 10y, 20y, and 40y. All results provide evidence that the data cannot be described by an AR1 process, but are long-term correlated with a Hurst exponent H close to 1 for summer temperature data and around 0.9 for summer precipitation. These results, however, are not in agreement with neither observational data of the past two centuries nor millennium simulations with contemporary climate models, which both suggest H close to 0.65 for the temperature data and H close to 0.5 for the precipitation data. In particular the strong contrast in precipitation (highly correlated for the reconstructed data, white noise for the observational and model data) rises concerns on tree rings based climate reconstructions, which will have to be taken into account in future investigations. [1] Büntgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., McCormick, M., Frank, D., Trouet, V., Kaplan, J.O., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., and Esper, J., 2011: 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility. SCIENCE, 331, 578-582.

Seasonal to Mesoscale Variability of Water Masses in Barrow Canyon,Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, C.; Pickart, R. S.; Moore, K.; Ashjian, C. J.; Arrigo, K. R.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Vagle, S.; Itoh, M.; Berchok, C.; Stabeno, P. J.; Kikuchi, T.; Cooper, L. W.; Hartwell, I.; He, J.

2016-02-01

Barrow Canyon is one of the primary conduits by which Pacific-origin water exits the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin. As such, it is an ideal location to monitor the different water masses through the year. At the same time, the canyon is an energetic environment where mixing and entrainment can occur, modifying the pacific-origin waters. As part of the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) program, a transect across the canyon was occupied 24 times between 2010-2013 by international ships of opportunity passing through the region during summer and early-fall. Here we present results from an analysis of these sections to determine the seasonal evolution of the water masses and to investigate the nature of the mesoscale variability. The mean state shows the clear presence of six water masses present at various times through the summer. The seasonal evolution of these summer water masses is characterized both in depth space and in temperature-salinity (T-S) space. Clear patterns emerge, including the arrival of Alaskan coastal water and its modification in early-fall. The primary mesoscale variability is associated with wind-driven upwelling events which occur predominantly in September. The atmospheric forcing of these events is investigated as is the oceanic response.

Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, N.; Sillmann, J.; Anstey, J.; Fischer, E. M.; Grams, C. M.; Russo, S.

2018-05-01

Better preparedness for summer heatwaves could mitigate their adverse effects on society. This can potentially be attained through an increased understanding of the relationship between heatwaves and one of their main dynamical drivers, atmospheric blocking. In the 1979–2015 period, we find that there is a significant correlation between summer heatwave magnitudes and the number of days influenced by atmospheric blocking in Northern Europe and Western Russia. Using three large global climate model ensembles, we find similar correlations, indicating that these three models are able to represent the relationship between extreme temperature and atmospheric blocking, despite having biases in their simulation of individual climate variables such as temperature or geopotential height. Our results emphasize the need to use large ensembles of different global climate models as single realizations do not always capture this relationship. The three large ensembles further suggest that the relationship between summer heatwaves and atmospheric blocking will not change in the future. This could be used to statistically model heatwaves with atmospheric blocking as a covariate and aid decision-makers in planning disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change.

Summer temperature metrics for predicting brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Donna; Butryn, Ryan S.; Rizzo, Donna M.

2012-01-01

We developed a methodology to predict brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution using summer temperature metrics as predictor variables. Our analysis used long-term fish and hourly water temperature data from the Dog River, Vermont (USA). Commonly used metrics (e.g., mean, maximum, maximum 7-day maximum) tend to smooth the data so information on temperature variation is lost. Therefore, we developed a new set of metrics (called event metrics) to capture temperature variation by describing the frequency, area, duration, and magnitude of events that exceeded a user-defined temperature threshold. We used 16, 18, 20, and 22°C. We built linear discriminant models and tested and compared the event metrics against the commonly used metrics. Correct classification of the observations was 66% with event metrics and 87% with commonly used metrics. However, combined event and commonly used metrics correctly classified 92%. Of the four individual temperature thresholds, it was difficult to assess which threshold had the “best” accuracy. The 16°C threshold had slightly fewer misclassifications; however, the 20°C threshold had the fewest extreme misclassifications. Our method leveraged the volumes of existing long-term data and provided a simple, systematic, and adaptable framework for monitoring changes in fish distribution, specifically in the case of irregular, extreme temperature events.

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

2018-04-01

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Year-Long Monitoring of Physico-Chemical and Biological Variables Provide a Comparative Baseline of Coral Reef Functioning in the Central Red Sea

PubMed Central

Roik, Anna; Röthig, Till; Roder, Cornelia; Ziegler, Maren; Kremb, Stephan G.

2016-01-01

Coral reefs in the central Red Sea are sparsely studied and in situ data on physico-chemical and key biotic variables that provide an important comparative baseline are missing. To address this gap, we simultaneously monitored three reefs along a cross-shelf gradient for an entire year over four seasons, collecting data on currents, temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-a, turbidity, inorganic nutrients, sedimentation, bacterial communities of reef water, and bacterial and algal composition of epilithic biofilms. Summer temperature (29–33°C) and salinity (39 PSU) exceeded average global maxima for coral reefs, whereas DO concentration was low (2–4 mg L-1). While temperature and salinity differences were most pronounced between seasons, DO, chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and sedimentation varied most between reefs. Similarly, biotic communities were highly dynamic between reefs and seasons. Differences in bacterial biofilms were driven by four abundant families: Rhodobacteraceae, Flavobacteriaceae, Flammeovirgaceae, and Pseudanabaenaceae. In algal biofilms, green crusts, brown crusts, and crustose coralline algae were most abundant and accounted for most of the variability of the communities. Higher bacterial diversity of biofilms coincided with increased algal cover during spring and summer. By employing multivariate matching, we identified temperature, salinity, DO, and chlorophyll-a as the main contributing physico-chemical drivers of biotic community structures. These parameters are forecast to change most with the progression of ocean warming and increased nutrient input, which suggests an effect on the recruitment of Red Sea benthic communities as a result of climate change and anthropogenic influence. In conclusion, our study provides insight into coral reef functioning in the Red Sea and a comparative baseline to support coral reef studies in the region. PMID:27828965

Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling of Late-Quaternary Variations in Pollen-Based Compositional Dissimilarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. W.; Blois, J.; Ferrier, S.; Manion, G.; Fitzpatrick, M.; Veloz, S.; He, F.; Liu, Z.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2011-12-01

In Quaternary paleoecology and paleoclimatology, compositionally dissimilar fossil assemblages usually indicate dissimilar environments; this relationship underpins assemblage-level techniques for paleoenvironmental reconstruction such as mutual climatic ranges or the modern analog technique. However, there has been relatively little investigation into the form of the relationship between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity. Here we apply generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM; Ferrier et al. 2007) as a tool for modeling the expected non-linear relationships between compositional and climatic dissimilarity. We use the CCSM3.0 transient paleoclimatic simulations from the SynTrace working group (Liu et al. 2009) and a new generation of fossil pollen maps from eastern North America (Blois et al. 2011) to 1) assess the spatial relationships between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity and 2) whether these spatial relationships change over time. We used a taxonomic list of 106 genus-level pollen types, six climatic variables (winter precipitation and mean temperature, summer precipitation and temperature, seasonality of precipitation, and seasonality of temperature) that were chosen to minimize collinearity, and a cross-referenced pollen and climate dataset mapped for time slices spaced 1000 years apart. When GDM was trained for one time slice, the correlation between predicted and observed spatial patterns of community dissimilarity for other times ranged between 0.3 and 0.73. The selection of climatic predictor variables changed over time, as did the form of the relationship between compositional turnover and climatic predictors. Summer temperature was the only variable selected for all time periods. These results thus suggest that the relationship between compositional dissimilarity in pollen assemblages (and, by implication, beta diversity in plant communities) and climatic dissimilarity can change over time, for reasons to be further studied.

Year-Long Monitoring of Physico-Chemical and Biological Variables Provide a Comparative Baseline of Coral Reef Functioning in the Central Red Sea.

PubMed

Roik, Anna; Röthig, Till; Roder, Cornelia; Ziegler, Maren; Kremb, Stephan G; Voolstra, Christian R

2016-01-01

Coral reefs in the central Red Sea are sparsely studied and in situ data on physico-chemical and key biotic variables that provide an important comparative baseline are missing. To address this gap, we simultaneously monitored three reefs along a cross-shelf gradient for an entire year over four seasons, collecting data on currents, temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-a, turbidity, inorganic nutrients, sedimentation, bacterial communities of reef water, and bacterial and algal composition of epilithic biofilms. Summer temperature (29-33°C) and salinity (39 PSU) exceeded average global maxima for coral reefs, whereas DO concentration was low (2-4 mg L-1). While temperature and salinity differences were most pronounced between seasons, DO, chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and sedimentation varied most between reefs. Similarly, biotic communities were highly dynamic between reefs and seasons. Differences in bacterial biofilms were driven by four abundant families: Rhodobacteraceae, Flavobacteriaceae, Flammeovirgaceae, and Pseudanabaenaceae. In algal biofilms, green crusts, brown crusts, and crustose coralline algae were most abundant and accounted for most of the variability of the communities. Higher bacterial diversity of biofilms coincided with increased algal cover during spring and summer. By employing multivariate matching, we identified temperature, salinity, DO, and chlorophyll-a as the main contributing physico-chemical drivers of biotic community structures. These parameters are forecast to change most with the progression of ocean warming and increased nutrient input, which suggests an effect on the recruitment of Red Sea benthic communities as a result of climate change and anthropogenic influence. In conclusion, our study provides insight into coral reef functioning in the Red Sea and a comparative baseline to support coral reef studies in the region.

Determination of the spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton community structure in Daya Bay via HPLC-CHEMTAX pigment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Longhua; Ou, Linjian; Huang, Kaixuan; Chai, Chao; Wang, Zhaohui; Wang, Xiaomin; Jiang, Tao

2017-09-01

The spatial and temporal variability of the phytoplankton community structure in Daya Bay, South China Sea, were identified by using HPLC-CHEMTAX analytical techniques. The highest chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations were observed during summer (with an average value of 0.84 μg/L) and lowest ones during winter (with an average value of 0.33 μg/L). CHEMTAX processing revealed the seasonal succession of phytoplankton species in Daya Bay. During winter, diatoms were the dominant phytoplankton species and contributed 41.5% to total Chl a. Based on Chl a concentration, the average ratio of dinoflagellates to total phytoplankton biomass substantially increased with increasing temperature and nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P) ratio, reaching 52.2% in spring. Nutrient limitation shifted from phosphorus to nitrogen during summer. Moreover, this period was associated with the predominance of diatoms, which accounted for 71.1% of Chl a. Prasinophytes and cryptophytes were the other two dominant groups and particularly dominated during winter. Cyanobacteria became an important group during summer and autumn. Canonical correspondence analysis suggested that chrysophytes, dinoflagellates, and cryptophytes were strongly associated with high nitrate concentration, ammonium, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and N/P ratio, and were negatively associated with temperature and phosphate. Diatoms and cyanobacteria were strongly associated with temperature, phosphate, and salinity, and are negatively influenced by nitrate, ammonium, DIN, and N/P ratio. Microscopic observations and pigment HPLC information were in good agreement for diatoms and dinoflagellates in the bay. This study demonstrated the usefulness of pigment analysis in investigating the distribution of phytoplankton groups in a complex physical environment, such as Daya Bay.

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M

2017-03-06

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Greenhouse gases emission from the sewage draining rivers.

PubMed

Hu, Beibei; Wang, Dongqi; Zhou, Jun; Meng, Weiqing; Li, Chongwei; Sun, Zongbin; Guo, Xin; Wang, Zhongliang

2018-01-15

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) concentration, saturation and fluxes in rivers (Beitang drainage river, Dagu drainage rive, Duliujianhe river, Yongdingxinhe river and Nanyunhe river) of Tianjin city (Haihe watershed) were investigated during July and October in 2014, and January and April in 2015 by static headspace gas chromatography method and the two-layer model of diffusive gas exchange. The influence of environmental variables on greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration under the disturbance of anthropogenic activities was discussed by Spearman correlative analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that the concentration and fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O were seasonally variable with >winter>fall>summer, spring>summer>winter>fall and summer>spring>winter>fall for concentrations and spring>summer>fall>winter, spring>summer>winter>fall and summer>spring>fall>winter for fluxes respectively. The GHGs concentration and saturation were higher in comprehensively polluted river sites and lower in lightly polluted river sites. The three GHGs emission fluxes in two sewage draining rivers of Tianjin were clearly higher than those of other rivers (natural rivers) and the spatial variation of CH 4 was more obvious than the others. CO 2 and N 2 O air-water interface emission fluxes of the sewage draining rivers in four seasons were about 1.20-2.41 times and 1.13-3.12 times of those in the natural rivers. The CH 4 emission fluxes of the sewage draining rivers were 3.09 times in fall to 10.87 times in spring of those in the natural rivers in different season. The wind speed, water temperature and air temperature were related to GHGs concentrations. Nitrate and nitrite (NO 3 - +NO 2 - -N) and ammonia (NH 4 + -N) were positively correlated with CO 2 concentration and CH 4 concentration; and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration was negatively correlated with CH 4 concentration and N 2 O concentration. The effect of human activities on carbon and nitrogen cycling in river is great. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Northern Hemisphere moisture variability during the Last Glacial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.; Lachniet, M. S.

2013-12-01

It was previously shown that large oxygen isotope variability related to changing moisture sources in the southwestern United States (SW) match the Greenland ice core temperature record. The variations were attributed to changes in the ratio of winter to summer precipitation delivered to the SW, with lighter winter δ18O values compared to summer monsoon rainfall, due to meridonial shifts in the position of the polar jet stream, which directs winter storm tracks. Cold stadial δ18O excursions are associated with strongly negative values, while interstadials have higher than average δ18O values. Although these data documented moisture source variability to the SW, the question of effective moisture variability remains unanswered. Here we present new high-resolution δ18O and δ13C isotopic data from a precisely dated speleothem, FS-AH1, from Fort Stanton Cave, New Mexico USA. The sample grew continuously between 47.6 and 11.1 kyr. The new chronology is more precise than previous work due to high sample growth rate, new gains in efficiency provided by our upgraded Neptune MC-ICPMS and new more precise determinations of the half-lives of 230Th and 234U. The FS-AH1 δ18O and the Greenland δ18O data (on the GICC05 time scale) show a remarkable match, both with respect to stadials/interstadial amplitudes and variability, and in the overall long-term trend. Our interpretation of the δ18O data remains the same, an indicator of moisture source variability. The δ18O and δ13C isotopic data show no correlation (R2 <0.0001) because the δ18O primarily reflects differences in moisture sources and temperature (at least during large-scale excursions), while δ13C variability reflects the amount of effective moisture in the soil zone overlying the cave, with low δ13C attributed to high soil productivity, high effective moisture, and wet conditions. The stadial and interstadial events are expressed mutely, if at all, in the δ13C data, while the secular variation follows the change in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (insolation), similar to other Northern Hemisphere data, such as the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon as recorded in the Hulu speleothem, although the match to the East Asian monsoon is inverse. The much diminished expression of stadials and interstadials and secular variations in the effective moisture proxy data that match insolation seem to be hemispherical in scale. In humid settings, such as east Asia monsoon regions, warm temperatures lead to northward shift of the ITCZ and increase in the strength of the Asian monsoon, while in the desert SW any increase in the strength in the North American monsoon is counterbalanced by decrease in winter moisture due to the northward shift of the polar jet stream and more importantly, the onset of more evaporative conditions. In contrast to the large and rapid shifts seen in the Greenland ice core data and the apparent shift in position in air masses, as indicated by our δ18O data, large-scale changes in moisture regimes in the Northern Hemisphere seem to be driven by changes in insolation. Locations that are sensitive to small changes in atmospheric pressure and/or sea surface temperature gradients may be the exception.

Physical Mechanisms of Rapid Lake Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.

2016-12-01

Recent studies have shown significant warming of inland water bodies around the world. Many lakes are warming more rapidly than the ambient surface air temperature, and this is counter to what is often expected based on the lake surface energy balance. A host of reasons have been proposed to explain these discrepancies, including changes in the onset of summer stratification, significant loss of ice cover, and concomitant changes in winter air temperature and/or summer cloud cover. A review of the literature suggests that no single physical mechanism is primarily responsible for the majority of these changes, but rather that the large heterogeneity in regional climate trends and lake geomorphometry results in a host of potential physical drivers. In this study, we discuss the variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain rapid lake warming and offer an assessment of the physical plausibility for each potential contributor. Lake Superior is presented as a case study to illustrate the "perfect storm" of factors that can cause a deep, dimictic lake to warm at rate that exceeds the rate of global air temperature warming by nearly an order of magnitude. In particular, we use a simple mixed-layer model to show that spatially variable trends in Lake Superior surface water temperature are determined, to first order, by variations in bathymetry and winter air temperature. Summer atmospheric conditions are often of less significance, and winter ice cover may simply be a correlate. The results highlight the importance of considering the full range of factors that can lead to trends in lake surface temperature, and that conventional wisdom may often not be the best guide.

Summer diapause induced by high temperatures in the oriental tobacco budworm: ecological adaptation to hot summers

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhudong; Xin, Yucui; Zhang, Yanan; Fan, Jianting; Sun, Jianghua

2016-01-01

Summer diapause in Helicoverpa assulta (Hübner), which prolongs the pupal stage, particularly in males, is induced by high temperatures. In the laboratory, 3rd-, 4th-, 6th-instar and prepupal larvae were exposed to high temperatures – 33 and 35 °C with a photoperiod of LD16:8 – until pupation to induce summer diapause. The results showed that the incidence of summer diapause was influenced by temperature, stage exposed, and sex. The higher the temperature, the more often summer diapause was attained. Sixth-instar and prepupal larvae were the sensitive stages for summer diapause induction. H. assulta summer-diapausing pupae needed diapause development to resume development when temperatures became favorable. Furthermore, both body mass and energy storage capacity (lipid and glycogen) were significantly affected by diapause rather than sex, and were significantly higher in summer-diapausing pupae than in non-diapausing pupae. In addition, the body mass loss and respiration rate showed that the rate of metabolism in the summer-diapausing pupae was consistently lower than in non-diapausing pupae, which were significantly affected by diapause and pupal age. We conclude that summer diapause in H. assulta is a true diapause, and H. assulta has evolved mechanisms to accumulate energy storage and to lower its metabolism to adapt to hot summers. PMID:27271223

Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Hsieh, Yi-Fang; Lathrop, Richard C; Wu, Chin H; Magee, Madeline; Hamilton, David P.

2016-01-01

 The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s−1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s−1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (−1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911–1980, 1981–1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes.

PubMed

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-05-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30-80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes

PubMed Central

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-01-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30–80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species. PMID:26045957

Contribution of urban expansion and a changing climate to decline of a butterfly fauna.

PubMed

Casner, Kayce L; Forister, Matthew L; O'Brien, Joshua M; Thorne, James; Waetjen, David; Shapiro, Arthur M

2014-06-01

Butterfly populations are naturally patchy and undergo extinctions and recolonizations. Analyses based on more than 2 decades of data on California's Central Valley butterfly fauna show a net loss in species richness through time. We analyzed 22 years of phenological and faunistic data for butterflies to investigate patterns of species richness over time. We then used 18-22 years of data on changes in regional land use and 37 years of seasonal climate data to develop an explanatory model. The model related the effects of changes in land-use patterns, from working landscapes (farm and ranchland) to urban and suburban landscapes, and of a changing climate on butterfly species richness. Additionally, we investigated local trends in land use and climate. A decline in the area of farmland and ranchland, an increase in minimum temperatures during the summer and maximum temperatures in the fall negatively affected net species richness, whereas increased minimum temperatures in the spring and greater precipitation in the previous summer positively affected species richness. According to the model, there was a threshold between 30% and 40% working-landscape area below which further loss of working-landscape area had a proportionally greater effect on butterfly richness. Some of the isolated effects of a warming climate acted in opposition to affect butterfly richness. Three of the 4 climate variables that most affected richness showed systematic trends (spring and summer mean minimum and fall mean maximum temperatures). Higher spring minimum temperatures were associated with greater species richness, whereas higher summer temperatures in the previous year and lower rainfall were linked to lower richness. Patterns of land use contributed to declines in species richness (although the pattern was not linear), but the net effect of a changing climate on butterfly richness was more difficult to discern. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of climate change on residential infiltration and air pollution exposure.

PubMed

Ilacqua, Vito; Dawson, John; Breen, Michael; Singer, Sarany; Berg, Ashley

2017-01-01

Air exchange through infiltration is driven partly by indoor/outdoor temperature differences, and as climate change increases ambient temperatures, such differences could vary considerably even with small ambient temperature increments, altering patterns of exposures to both indoor and outdoor pollutants. We calculated changes in air fluxes through infiltration for prototypical detached homes in nine metropolitan areas in the United States (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, and Seattle) from 1970-2000 to 2040-2070. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory model of infiltration was used in combination with climate data from eight regionally downscaled climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Averaged over all study locations, seasons, and climate models, air exchange through infiltration would decrease by ~5%. Localized increased infiltration is expected during the summer months, up to 20-30%. Seasonal and daily variability in infiltration are also expected to increase, particularly during the summer months. Diminished infiltration in future climate scenarios may be expected to increase exposure to indoor sources of air pollution, unless these ventilation reductions are otherwise compensated. Exposure to ambient air pollution, conversely, could be mitigated by lower infiltration, although peak exposure increases during summer months should be considered, as well as other mechanisms.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth.

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

2009-04-01

Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and vapour pressure deficit.

Interannual drivers of the seasonal cycle of CO2 in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregor, Luke; Kok, Schalk; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.

2018-04-01

Resolving and understanding the drivers of variability of CO2 in the Southern Ocean and its potential climate feedback is one of the major scientific challenges of the ocean-climate community. Here we use a regional approach on empirical estimates of pCO2 to understand the role that seasonal variability has in long-term CO2 changes in the Southern Ocean. Machine learning has become the preferred empirical modelling tool to interpolate time- and location-restricted ship measurements of pCO2. In this study we use an ensemble of three machine-learning products: support vector regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) from Gregor et al. (2017), and the self-organising-map feed-forward neural network (SOM-FFN) method from Landschützer et al. (2016). The interpolated estimates of ΔpCO2 are separated into nine regions in the Southern Ocean defined by basin (Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic) and biomes (as defined by Fay and McKinley, 2014a). The regional approach shows that, while there is good agreement in the overall trend of the products, there are periods and regions where the confidence in estimated ΔpCO2 is low due to disagreement between the products. The regional breakdown of the data highlighted the seasonal decoupling of the modes for summer and winter interannual variability. Winter interannual variability had a longer mode of variability compared to summer, which varied on a 4-6-year timescale. We separate the analysis of the ΔpCO2 and its drivers into summer and winter. We find that understanding the variability of ΔpCO2 and its drivers on shorter timescales is critical to resolving the long-term variability of ΔpCO2. Results show that ΔpCO2 is rarely driven by thermodynamics during winter, but rather by mixing and stratification due to the stronger correlation of ΔpCO2 variability with mixed layer depth. Summer pCO2 variability is consistent with chlorophyll a variability, where higher concentrations of chlorophyll a correspond with lower pCO2 concentrations. In regions of low chlorophyll a concentrations, wind stress and sea surface temperature emerged as stronger drivers of ΔpCO2. In summary we propose that sub-decadal variability is explained by summer drivers, while winter variability contributes to the long-term changes associated with the SAM. This approach is a useful framework to assess the drivers of ΔpCO2 but would greatly benefit from improved estimates of ΔpCO2 and a longer time series.

Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Poff, N. LeRoy

2015-01-01

Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

Shrub sensitivity to recent warming across Arctic Alaska from dendrochronological and remote sensing records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Goetz, Scott

2017-04-01

Shrub expansion into Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems has been documented during the last several decades based on repeat aerial photography, remote sensing, and ground-truthed estimates of vegetation cover. Today, summer temperatures limit the northern limit of Arctic shrubs, and warmer summers have been shown to have higher NDVI in shrub tundra zones. Although global warming has been considered the main driver of shrub expansion, soil types, shrub species and non-linear responses can moderate how sensitive shrub growth is to climate warming. Here, we assess the sensitivity of shrub growth to inter-annual climate variability using a newly generated network of 18 shrub ring-width chronologies in the tundra regions of the North Slope of Alaska. We then test whether the dendroclimatic patterns we observe at individual sites are representative of the broader region using remotely sensed productivity data (NDVI). The common period of both satellite and shrub ring data from all sites was 1982 to 2010. Instrumental daily data from Toolik Lake and interpolated products was compared to detrended growth rates of Salix spp. (willow) and Alnus sp. (alder), located on and to the west of the Dalton Highway ( 68-70°N 148°W). Whereas summer temperatures were found to enhance shrub growth, warm temperatures outside the core of the growing season have the inverse effect in some chronologies. All tundra shrub chronologies shared a common strong positive response to summer temperatures despite growing in heterogeneous site conditions and belonging to different species. In this work we will discuss shrub climate sensitive across Alaska and how NDVI data compared to the shrub ring-width network.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2015-10-01

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

Phenotypic plasticity facilitates resistance to climate change in a highly variable environment.

PubMed

Richter, Sarah; Kipfer, Tabea; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Calderón Guerrero, Carlos; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Moser, Barbara

2012-05-01

Increased summer drought will exacerbate the regeneration of many tree species at their lower latitudinal and altitudinal distribution limits. In vulnerable habitats, introduction of more drought-tolerant provenances or species is currently considered to accelerate tree species migration and facilitate forest persistence. Trade-offs between drought adaptation and growth plasticity might, however, limit the effectiveness of assisted migration, especially if introductions focus on provenances or species from different climatic regions. We tested in a common garden experiment the performance of Pinus sylvestris seedlings from the continental Central Alps under increased temperatures and extended spring and/or summer drought, and compared seedling emergence, survival and biomass allocation to that of P. sylvestris and closely related Pinus nigra from a Mediterranean seed source. Soil heating had only minor effects on seedling performance but high spring precipitation doubled the number of continental P. sylvestris seedlings present after the summer drought. At the same time, twice as many seedlings of the Mediterranean than the continental P. sylvestris provenance were present, which was due to both higher emergence and lower mortality under dry conditions. Both P. sylvestris provenances allocated similar amounts of biomass to roots when grown under low summer precipitation. Mediterranean seedlings, however, revealed lower phenotypic plasticity than continental seedlings under high precipitation, which might limit their competitive ability in continental Alpine forests in non-drought years. By contrast, high variability in the response of individual seedlings to summer drought indicates the potential of continental P. sylvestris provenances to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data in the Baltic-Belarus area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veski, Siim; Seppä, Heikki; Stančikaitė, Migle; Zernitskaya, Valentina; Reitalu, Triin; Gryguc, Gražyna; Heinsalu, Atko; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Vassiljev, Jüri; Heiri, Oliver

2015-04-01

Quantitative reconstructions based on fossil pollen and chironomids are widely used and useful for long-term climate variability estimations. The Lateglacial and early Holocene period (15-8 ka BP) in the Baltic-Belarus (BB) area between 60°-51° N was characterized by sudden shifts in climate due to various climate forcings affecting the climate of the northern hemisphere and North Atlantic, including the proximity of receding ice sheets. Climate variations in BB during the LG were eminent as the southern part of the region was ice free during the Last Glacial Maximum over 19 ka BP, whereas northern Estonia became ice free no sooner than 13 ka BP. New pollen based reconstructions of summer (May-to-August) and winter (December-to-February) temperatures between 15-8 ka BP along a S-N transect in the BB area display trends in temporal and spatial changes in climate variability. These results are completed by two chironomid-based July mean temperature reconstructions (Heiri et al. 2014). The magnitude of change compared with modern temperatures was more prominent in the northern part of BB area than in the southern part. The 4 °C winter and 2 °C summer warming at the start of GI-1 was delayed in the BB area and Lateglacial maximum temperatures were reached at ca 13.6 ka BP, being 4 °C colder than the modern mean. The Younger Dryas cooling in the area was 5 °C colder than present as inferred by all proxies (Veski et al. in press). In addition, our analyses show an early Holocene divergence in winter temperature trends with modern values reaching 1 ka earlier (10 ka BP) in southern BB compared to the northern part of the region (9 ka BP). Heiri, O., Brooks, S.J., Renssen, H., Bedford, A., Hazekamp, M., Ilyashuk, B., Jeffers, E.S., Lang, B., Kirilova, E., Kuiper, S., Millet, L., Samartin, S., Toth, M., Verbruggen, F., Watson, J.E., van Asch, N., Lammertsma, E., Amon, L., Birks, H.H., Birks, J.B., Mortensen, M.F., Hoek, W.Z., Magyari, E., Muñoz Sobrino, C., Seppä, H., Tinner, W., Tonkov, S., Veski, S., Lotter, A.F., 2014. Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe. Nature Communications 5:4914, doi: 10.1038/ncomms5914 Veski, S., Seppä, H., Stančikaitė, M., Zernitskaya, V., Reitalu, T., Gryguc, G., Heinsalu, A., Stivrins, N., Amon, L., Vassiljev, J., Heiri, O. (in press). Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data between 15 and 8 ka BP in the Baltic-Belarus area. Quaternary International. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.10.059

Inter-annual dynamics of the Barents Sea red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) stock indices in relation to environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvoretsky, Alexander G.; Dvoretsky, Vladimir G.

2016-12-01

Knowledge of relationships between environmental variables and biological processes can greatly improve fisheries assessment and management in commercially important species. We analyzed the effects of environmental factors (climatic indices and water temperature) on the stock characteristics (total population number, number of pre-recruits and number of legal males) of the red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus), an introduced species in the Barents Sea. Stock trends in red king crab appear to be related to decadal climate shifts. Abundances were negatively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in August and positively related to water temperature in late winter-early summer. Total and commercial stock abundance were negatively correlated with the lag-1 Arctic Oscillation index (AO) in August and the lag-2 winter NAO index. The total number of P. camtschaticus was most strongly associated with water temperature in spring and summer and NAO/AO indices in April and May. Lagged NAO indices in February and August (9 or 10 yr) had a positive relationship to the commercial stock of P. camtschaticus. These findings suggest that temperature conditions of current and previous year affect natural mortality of larvae and juvenile red king crabs. Warmer temperature conditions lead to increased biomass of red king crab food items. Negative correlations between climatic indices and the red king crab stocks may be associated with predator pressure on juvenile red king crabs or higher mortality because of predator or parasite pressure and diseases. The associations between stock indices and environmental variables could help better predict recruitment patterns of P. camtschaticus.

Understanding the impact of ENSO on the variability and sources of moisture for precipitation in mainland southeast Asia during the onset of the Indian summer monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Jones, D. B. A.; Dyer, E.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Noone, D.

2017-12-01

Seasonal variation of precipitation in mainland southeast Asia (SEA) is dominated by the Indian summer monsoon system and the western Pacific winter monsoon system, while the interannual variability of precipitation in this region can be related to remote variability, such as variations in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Here we use a version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2) with water tagging capability, to examine the impact of ENSO on precipitation in mainland Southeast Asia during the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. In the model, water is tagged as it is evaporated from geographically defined regions and tracked through phase changes in the atmosphere until it is precipitated. The model simulates well the seasonal variability in SEA precipitation as captured by multiple observational data sets, and the variations in precipitation during the monsoon onset is well correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index. We examine the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with El Niño and La Niña conditions, and the implication of these changes for moisture transport to SEA. In particular, we quantify the relative ENSO-induced changes in the local and Pacific and Indian Ocean moisture sources for SEA precipitation. We also assess the changes in the moisture source regions over the seasonal cycle to obtain an understanding of the variability in the moisture sources for SEA precipitation from seasonal to interannual time scales.

A 2000 year varve-based climate record from the central Brooks Range, Alaska

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bird, BW; Abbott, MB; Finney, BP

Varved minerogenic sediments from glacial-fed Blue Lake, northern Alaska, are used to investigate late Holocene climate variability. Varve-thickness measurements track summer temperature recorded at Atigun Pass, located 41 km east at a similar elevation (r (2) = 0.31, P = 0.08). Results indicate that climate in the Brooks Range from 10 to 730 AD (varve year) was warm with precipitation inferred to be higher than during the twentieth century. The varvetemperature relationship for this period was likely compromised and not used in our temperature reconstruction because the glacier was greatly reduced, or absent, exposing sub-glacial sediments to erosion from enhancedmore » precipitation. Varve-inferred summer temperatures and precipitation decreased after 730 AD, averaging 0.4A degrees C above the last millennial average (LMA = 4.2A degrees C) from 730 to 850 AD, and 0.1A degrees C above the LMA from 850 to 980 AD. Cooling culminated between 980 and 1030 AD with temperatures 0.7A degrees C below the LMA. Varve-inferred summer temperatures increased between 1030 and 1620 AD to the LMA, though the period between 1260 and 1350 AD was 0.2A degrees C below the LMA. Although there is no equivalent to the European Medieval Warm Period in the Blue Lake record, two warm intervals occurred from 1350 to 1450 AD and 1500 to 1620 AD (0.4 and 0.3A degrees C above the LMA, respectively). During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1620 to 1880 AD), inferred summer temperature averaged 0.2A degrees C below the LMA. After 1880 AD, inferred summer temperature increased to 0.8A degrees C above the LMA, glaciers retreated, but aridity persisted based on a number of regional paleoclimate records. Despite warming and glacial retreat, varve thicknesses have not achieved pre-730 AD levels. This reflects limited sediment availability and transport due to a less extensive retreat compared to the first millennium, and continued relative aridity. Overall, the Blue Lake record is similar to varve records from the eastern Canadian Arctic that document a cool LIA and twentieth century warming. However, the occurrence and timing of events, such as the LIA and Medieval Warm Period, varies considerably among records, suggesting heterogeneous climatic patterns across the North American Arctic.« less

Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

2011-01-01

We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

Seasonal Cycles of Oceanic Transports in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gary, Stefan F.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Johnson, Clare; Houpert, Loïc.; Holliday, N. Penny; Behrens, Erik; Biastoch, Arne; Böning, Claus W.

2018-02-01

The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship-based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy-resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional-scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5-1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7-14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.

Water quality signals from rural land use and exurbanization in a mountain landscape: What’s clear and what’s comfounded

Treesearch

C. Rhett Jackson; Robert A. Bahn; Jackson R. Webster

2017-01-01

In mountainous landscapes with high climatic and geomorphic variability, how do rural land uses and exurbanization alter hydrology and water quality? We evaluated effects of rural land use and exurbanization on streamflows, suspended sediment concentrations and loads, specific conductance, and summer water temperatures in 12 streams and rivers within the Upper...

Influence of soil thickness on stand characteristics in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Treesearch

Marc D. Meyer; Malcolm P. North; Andrew N. Gray; Harold S. J. Zald

2007-01-01

Soil thickness can be an important factor influencing vegetation, yet few spatially explicit studies have examined soil horizon thickness and vegetation composition in summer drought forests. We compared seismic and soil penetration measurements of combined A + C and Cr horizon thickness, soil moisture and temperature, and stand variables in a contiguous 4-ha mixed-...

Habitat Suitability Model for the Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota

PubMed Central

Johnson, T. L.; Bjork, J. K. H.; Neitzel, D. F.; Dorr, F. M.; Schiffman, E. K.; Eisen, R. J.

2016-01-01

Ixodes scapularis Say, the black-legged tick, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of several pathogens causing human diseases including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Over the past two decades, I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence as well as geographic distribution. Lyme disease exists in two major foci in the United States, one encompassing northeastern states and the other in the Upper Midwest. Minnesota represents a state with an appreciable increase in counties reporting I. scapularis-borne illnesses, suggesting geographic expansion of vector populations in recent years. Recent tick distribution records support this assumption. Here, we used those records to create a fine resolution, subcounty-level distribution model for I. scapularis using variable response curves in addition to tests of variable importance. The model identified 19% of Minnesota as potentially suitable for establishment of the tick and indicated with high accuracy (AUC = 0.863) that the distribution is driven by land cover type, summer precipitation, maximum summer temperatures, and annual temperature variation. We provide updated records of established populations near the northwestern species range limit and present a model that increases our understanding of the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota. PMID:27026161

The tropospheric biennial oscillation defined by a biennial mode of sea surface temperature and its impact on the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jinju; Kim, Kwang-Yul

2016-10-01

Temporal and spatial patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Indo-Pacific region are analyzed in conjunction with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation as represented by the biennial mode of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The biennial components of key variables are identified independently of other variability via CSEOF analysis. Then, its impact on the Asian-Australian monsoon is examined. The biennial mode exhibits a seasonally distinctive atmospheric response over the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific (EIWP) region (90°-150°E, 20°S-20°N). In boreal summer, local meridional circulation is a distinguishing characteristic over the tropical EIWP region, whereas a meridionally expanded branch of intensified zonal circulation develops in austral summer. Temporally varying evolution and distinct timing of SSTA phase transition in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is considered a main factor for this variation of circulation in the tropical EIWP region. The impact of the biennial mode is not the same between the two seasons, with different impacts over ocean areas in Asian monsoon and Australian monsoon regions.

Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period, which weakened northward heat transport by the ocean. In addition, the high concentration of atmospheric aerosol during the early Holocene may also have partly contribution to the cool summer temperature by weakening solar insolation.

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Vikki; Dunstone, Nick J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug M.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Ren, Hong-Li; Lu, Bo; Belcher, Stephen E.

2018-06-01

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio-economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high.

High sensitivity of gross primary production in the Rocky Mountains to summer rain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berkelhammer, M.; Stefanescu, I.C.; Joiner, J.; Anderson, Lesleigh

2017-01-01

In the catchments of the Rocky Mountains, peak snowpack is declining in response to warmer spring temperatures. To understand how this will influence terrestrial gross primary production (GPP), we compared precipitation data across the intermountain west with satellite retrievals of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for GPP. Annual precipitation patterns explained most of the spatial and temporal variability of SIF, but the slope of the response was dependent on site to site differences in the proportion of snowpack to summer rain. We separated the response of SIF to different seasonal precipitation amounts and found that SIF was approximately twice as sensitive to variations in summer rain than snowpack. The response of peak GPP to a secular decline in snowpack will likely be subtle, whereas a change in summer rain amount will have precipitous effects on GPP. The study suggests that the rain use efficiency of Rocky Mountain ecosystems is strongly dependent on precipitation form and timing.

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-10-01

This paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since AD 1300, involving: (1) a well-dated, 1.5-year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China (2) links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet conditions, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China (3) correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) variation. We present a highly precise, 230Th / U-dated, 1.5-year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in the Wuling Mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents indicates that (1) the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions in the Wuling Mountain area. (2) A stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) enhances the tropical monsoon trough controlled by ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), which produces higher spring quarter rainfall and isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the central China. (3) The summer quarter/spring quarter rainfall ratio in central China can be a potential indicator of the EASM strength: a lower ratio corresponds to stronger EASM and higher spring rainfall. The ratio changed from <1 to >1 after 1950, reflecting that the summer quarter rainfall of the study area became dominant under stronger influence of the Northwestern Pacific High. Eastern China temperatures varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperatures under stronger solar irradiation, which produced stronger summer monsoons. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating a weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal timescales. On an interannual timescale, dry conditions in the study area prevailed under El Niño conditions, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter conditions in the study area under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods, and vice versa. During cold periods, the Walker Circulation will shift toward the central Pacific under El Niño conditions, resulting in a further weakening of Asian summer monsoons.

Locating inputs of freshwater to Lynch Cove, Hood Canal, Washington, using aerial infrared photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheibley, Rich W.; Josberger, Edward G.; Chickadel, Chris

2010-01-01

The input of freshwater and associated nutrients into Lynch Cove and lower Hood Canal (fig. 1) from sources such as groundwater seeps, small streams, and ephemeral creeks may play a major role in the nutrient loading and hydrodynamics of this low dissolved-oxygen (hypoxic) system. These disbursed sources exhibit a high degree of spatial variability. However, few in-situ measurements of groundwater seepage rates and nutrient concentrations are available and thus may not represent adequately the large spatial variability of groundwater discharge in the area. As a result, our understanding of these processes and their effect on hypoxic conditions in Hood Canal is limited. To determine the spatial variability and relative intensity of these sources, the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center collaborated with the University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory to obtain thermal infrared (TIR) images of the nearshore and intertidal regions of Lynch Cove at or near low tide. In the summer, cool freshwater discharges from seeps and streams, flows across the exposed, sun-warmed beach, and out on the warm surface of the marine water. These temperature differences are readily apparent in aerial thermal infrared imagery that we acquired during the summers of 2008 and 2009. When combined with co-incident video camera images, these temperature differences allow identification of the location, the type, and the relative intensity of the sources.

Fog as an ecosystem service: Quantifying fog-mediated reductions in maximum temperature across coastal to inland transects in northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torregrosa, A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Combs, C.; Peters, J.

2013-12-01

Several studies have documented the human benefits of temperature cooling derived from coastal fog such as the reduction in the number of hospital visits/emergency response requests from heat stress-vulnerable population sectors or decreased energy consumption during periods when summer maximum temperatures are lower than normal. In this study we quantify the hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal thermal effect of fog and low clouds (FLC) hours on maximum summer temperatures across a northern California landscape. The FLC data summaries are calculated from the CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) 10 year archive that were derived from hourly night and day images using channels 1 (Visible), 2 (3.6 μm) and 4 (10.7 μm) NOAA GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite). The FLC summaries were analyzed with two sets of site based data, meteorological (met) station-based measurements and downscaled interpolated PRISM data for selected point locations spanning a range of coastal to inland geographic conditions and met station locations. In addition to finding a 0.4 degree C per hour of FLC effect, our results suggest variability related to site specific thermal response. For example, sites closest to the coast have less thermal variability between low cloud and sunny days than sites further from the coast suggesting a much stronger influence of ocean temperature than of FLC thermal dynamics. The thermal relief provided by summertime FLC is equivalent in magnitude to the temperature increase projected by the driest and hottest of regional downscaled climate models using the A2 ('worst') IPCC scenario. Extrapolating these thermal calculations can facilitate future quantifications of the ecosystem service provided by summertime low clouds and fog.

2014 and 2015 anomalies in temperature and the epipelagic fish community in the eastern Gulf of Alaska and implications for juvenile fish.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhea-Fournier, W.

2016-02-01

Summer eastern Gulf of Alaska fisheries oceanography surveys of the epipelagic in 2014 and 2015 indicated elevated near surface temperatures, changes in the fish community, and variability in prey quality. The Alaska Fisheries Science Center deployed CTDs to observe temperature profiles, surface trawls to collect fish, and plankton nets to collect zooplankton from 2010 to 2015 along the coast and offshore of Baranof and Chichagof Island . Average near surface temperature for 2014 and 2015 were significantly higher than previous years with an increase of over 3.5 degrees relative to 2012. Young of the year groundfish that occupy the epipelagic in the summer prior to pelagic and demersal migration experienced changes in relative abundance that included a decrease in pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder and an increase in sablefish. The warmer temperatures allowed Elasmobranchs from tropical regions to migrate north including blue sharks and Thresher sharks which represented a northern range extension. Other anomalous fish catches in the nearshore in 2014 and 2015 included multiple ocean sunfish, Mola mola, and the abundance of Pacific pomfret, a piscivorous species usually found in offshore waters. Zooplankton collections analyzed for caloric content and lipid allocation indicated interannual variability with an increase of condition in 2014 and a significant decrease in 2015. While the elevated temperatures of 2014 and 2015 may have provided suitable habitat and range extensions for lower latitude and offshore species, the combination of accelerated metabolism due to higher thermal experience, depleted energetic input from prey, and increase in predators has the potential to decrease survival of juvenile fish in the epipelagic.

Controls of picophytoplankton abundance and composition in a highly dynamic marine system, the Northern Alboran Sea (Western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amorim, Ana L.; León, Pablo; Mercado, Jesús M.; Cortés, Dolores; Gómez, Francisco; Putzeys, Sebastien; Salles, Soluna; Yebra, Lidia

2016-06-01

The Alboran Sea is a highly dynamic basin which exhibits a high spatio-temporal variability of hydrographic structures (e.g. fronts, gyres, coastal upwellings). This work compares the abundance and composition of picophytoplankton observed across the northern Alboran Sea among eleven cruises between 2008 and 2012 using flow cytometry. We evaluate the seasonal and longitudinal variability of picophytoplankton on the basis of the circulation regimes at a regional scale and explore the presence of cyanobacteria ecotypes in the basin. The maximal abundances obtained for Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes (12.7 × 104, 13.9 × 104 and 8.6 × 104 cells mL- 1 respectively) were consistent with those reported for other adjacent marine areas. Seasonal changes in the abundance of the three picophytoplankton groups were highly significant although they did not match the patterns described for other coastal waters. Higher abundances of Prochlorococcus were obtained in autumn-winter while Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes exhibited a different seasonal abundance pattern depending on the sector (e.g. Synechococcus showed higher abundance in summer in the west sector and during winter in the eastern study area). Additionally, conspicuous longitudinal gradients were observed for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, with Prochlorococcus decreasing from west to east and Synechococcus following the opposite pattern. The analysis of environmental variables (i.e. temperature, salinity and inorganic nutrients) and cell abundances indicates that Prochlorococcus preferred high salinity and nitrate to phosphate ratio. On the contrary, temperature did not seem to play a role in Prochlorococcus distribution as it was numerically important during the whole seasonal cycle. Variability in Synechococcus abundance could not be explained by changes in any environmental variable suggesting that different ecotypes were sampled during the surveys. In particular, our data would indicate the presence of at least two ecotypes of Synechococcus: a summer ecotype widely distributed in the whole Alboran Sea and a winter ecotype adapted to lower temperature and higher nutrient concentration whose growth is favoured in the eastern sector.

Continental-scale temperature covariance in proxy reconstructions and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Büntgen, Ulf; Smerdon, Jason; Zorita, Eduardo; Krusic, Paul; Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Schneider, Lea; Esper, Jan

2017-04-01

Inter-continental temperature variability over the past millennium has been reported to be more coherent in climate model simulations than in multi-proxy-based reconstructions, a finding that undermines the representation of spatial variability in either of these approaches. We assess the covariance of summer temperatures among Northern Hemisphere continents by comparing tree-ring based temperature reconstructions with state-of-the-art climate model simulations over the past millennium. We find inter-continental temperature covariance to be larger in tree-ring-only reconstructions compared to those derived from multi-proxy networks, thus enhancing the agreement between proxy- and model-based spatial representations. A detailed comparison of simulated temperatures, however, reveals substantial spread among the models. Over the past millennium, inter-continental temperature correlations are driven by the cooling after major volcanic eruptions in 1257, 1452, 1601, and 1815. The coherence of these synchronizing events appears to be elevated in several climate simulations relative to their own covariance baselines and the proxy reconstructions, suggesting these models overestimate the amplitude of cooling in response to volcanic forcing at large spatial scales.

Physical activity levels of older community-dwelling adults are influenced by summer weather variables.

PubMed

Brandon, Caitlin A; Gill, Dawn P; Speechley, Mark; Gilliland, Jason; Jones, Gareth R

2009-04-01

Adequate daily physical activity (PA) is important for maintaining functional capacity and independence in older adults. However, most older adults in Canada do not engage in enough PA to sustain fitness and functional independence. Environmental influences, such as warmer daytime temperatures, may influence PA participation; however, few studies have examined the effect of summertime temperatures on PA levels in older adults. This investigation measured the influence of summertime weather variables on PA in 48 community-dwelling older adults who were randomly recruited from a local seniors' community centre. Each participant wore an accelerometer for a single 7-consecutive-day period (between 30 May and 9 August 2006) during waking hours, and completed a PA logbook to remark on major daily PA events. Local weather variables were collected from a national weather service and compared with PA counts per minute. Regression analysis revealed a curvilinear relationship between log-transformed PA and mean daily temperature (r2 = 0.025; p < 0.05). Linear mixed effects models that accounted for repeated measures nested within individuals were performed for monthly periods, meteorological variables, sex, age, and estimated maximal oxygen consumption, with PA as the dependent variable. Age and Air Quality Index remained significant variables within the model. Higher fitness levels had no effect on allowing individuals to perform more vigorous PA in warmer temperatures.

Active layer thermal monitoring at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Maritime Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Roberto; Schaefer, Carlos; Simas, Felipe; Pregesbauer, Michael; Bockheim, James

2013-04-01

International attention on the climate change phenomena has grown in the last decade, intense modelling of climate scenarios were carried out by scientific investigations searching the sources and trends of these changes. The cryosphere and its energy flux became the focus of many investigations, being recognised as a key element for the understanding of future trends. The active layer and permafrost are key components of the terrestrial cryosphere due to their role in energy flux regulation and high sensitivity to climate change (Kane et al., 2001; Smith and Brown, 2009). Compared with other regions of the globe, our understanding of Antarctic permafrost is poor, especially in relation to its thermal state and evolution, its physical properties, links to pedogenesis, hydrology, geomorphic dynamics and response to global change (Bockheim, 1995, Bockheim et al., 2008). The active layer monitoring site was installed in the summer of 2008, and consist of thermistors (accuracy ± 0.2 °C) arranged in a vertical array (Turbic Eutric Cryosol 600 m asl, 10.5 cm, 32.5 cm, 67.5 cm and 83.5 cm). King George Island experiences a cold moist maritime climate characterized by mean annual air temperatures of -2°C and mean summer air temperatures above 0°C for up to four months (Rakusa-Suszczewski et al., 1993, Wen et al., 1994). Ferron et al., (2004) found great variability when analysing data from 1947 to1995 and identified cycles of 5.3 years of colder conditions followed by 9.6 years of warmer conditions. All probes were connected to a Campbell Scientific CR 1000 data logger recording data at hourly intervals from March 1st 2008 until November 30th 2012. Meteorological data for Fildes was obtained from the near by stations. We calculated the thawing days, freezing days; thawing degree days and freezing degree days; all according to Guglielmin et al. (2008). The active lawyer thickness was calculated as the 0 °C depth by extrapolating the thermal gradient from the two deepest temperature measurements (Guglielmin, 2006). Interannual variability of the active layer shows parallel behaviour despite contrasts between different years, the temperature at 10.5 cm reaches a maximum daily average (4.06 °C ± 0.46) in early January, reaching a minimum (-8.03 °C ± 1,36) between late July and early August. At 83.5 cm maximum temperature (0.30 °C ± 0.24) occurs in late March and the minimum reading (-4.06 °C ± 0.98) was recorded around mid August. Disparities can be noticed when comparing the different years; 2008 had a mild winter (21 freezing days and -0,88 freezing degree days at 83.5 cm in July) contrasted by a severe winter in 2011 (31 freezing days and -80,00 freezing degree days at 83.5 cm in July), the summer of 2009 was considerably warmer (31 thawing days and 64,77 thawing degree days at 10.5 cm in January ) compared to the summer of 2010 (17 thawing days and 21,15 thawing degree days at 10.5 cm in January). Active layer thickness varied between 67 cm (max of 2012, March) and 101 cm (max of 2009, March). The active layer thermal regime in the studied period for both soils was typical of periglacial environments, with extreme variation in surface during summer resulting in frequent freeze and thaw cycles. Despite the variability when comparing temperature readings and active layer thickness over the studied period no trend can be identified.

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

Development of a New ICT-Based Multisensor Blood Pressure Monitoring System for Use in Hemodynamic Biomarker-Initiated Anticipation Medicine for Cardiovascular Disease: The National IMPACT Program Project.

PubMed

Kario, Kazuomi; Tomitani, Naoko; Kanegae, Hiroshi; Yasui, Nobuhiko; Nishizawa, Masafumi; Fujiwara, Takeshi; Shigezumi, Takeya; Nagai, Ryozo; Harada, Hiroshi

We have developed a multisensor home and ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring system for monitoring 24-h central and brachial BP variability concurrent with physical activity (PA), temperature, and atmospheric pressure. The new BP monitoring system utilizes our recently developed biological and environmental signal monitoring Information Communication Technology/Internet of Things system, which can simultaneously monitor the environment (temperature, illumination, etc.) of different rooms in a house (entryway, bedroom, living room, bathing room, and toilet), and a wrist-type high-sensitivity actigraph for identifying the location of patients. By collecting both data on BP and environmental parameters, the system can assess the brachial and central hemodynamic BP reactivity profiles of patients, such as actisensitivity (BP change with PA), thermosensitivity (with temperature), and atmospheric sensitivity (with atmospheric pressure). We used this new system to monitor ambulatory BP variability in outpatients with one or more cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors both in summer and winter. Actisensitivity (the slope of the regression line of ambulatory BP against the log-physical activity) was higher in winter than summer. By multi-level analysis using the parameters monitored by this system, we estimated the ambulatory BPs under different conditions. The individual time-series big data collected by this system will contribute to anticipation medicine for CVD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing fish habitat for flow and temperature extremes ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Summer low flows and stream temperature maxima are key drivers affecting the sustainability of fish populations. Thus, it is critical to understand both the natural templates of spatiotemporal variability, how these are shifting due to anthropogenic influences of development and climate change, and how these impacts can be moderated by natural and constructed green infrastructure. Low flow statistics of New England streams have been characterized using a combination of regression equations to describe long-term averages as a function of indicators of hydrologic regime (rain- versus snow-dominated), precipitation, evapotranspiration or temperature, surface water storage, baseflow recession rates, and impervious cover. Difference equations have been constructed to describe interannual variation in low flow as a function of changing air temperature, precipitation, and ocean-atmospheric teleconnection indices. Spatial statistical network models have been applied to explore fine-scale variability of thermal regimes along stream networks in New England as a function of variables describing natural and altered energy inputs, groundwater contributions, and retention time. Low flows exacerbate temperature impacts by reducing thermal inertia of streams to energy inputs. Based on these models, we can construct scenarios of fish habitat suitability using current and projected future climate and the potential for preservation and restoration of historic habitat regimes th

Recent Increase in North Atlantic Jet Variability Emerges from Three-Century Long Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.; Meko, M. D.

2017-12-01

The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet stream are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and their societal, ecosystem, and economic impacts. A recent increase in mid-latitude extreme events highlights the need for long-term records of jet stream variability to put recent trends in a historical perspective and to investigate non-linear relationships between jet stream variability, mid-latitude extreme weather events, and anthropogenic climate change. In Europe, anomalies of the North Atlantic Jet (NAJ) create a summer temperature seesaw between the British Isles (BRIT) and the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). We combined summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct inter-annual variability in the latitudinal position of the August NAJ back to 1725 CE. The two temperature proxies BRIT and NEMED counter-correlate significantly over their period of overlap, thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions, and combined explain close to 40% of the variance in the August NAJ target (Fig. 1). The NAJ reconstruction is dominated by sub-decadal variability and no significant long-term poleward or equatorward trends were detected. However, the NAJ time series shows a steep and unprecedented increase in variance starting in the late 1960s. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Central and Northeast Pacific, which are associated with the latitudinal position of the North Pacific Jet. Our combined results suggest a late 20th century increase in jet stream latitudinal variance in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific Basin that can be indicative of enhanced jet stream waviness and that coincides with a recent increase in quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). Our results show a late 20th century amplification of meridional flow in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic Basin and support more sinuous jet stream patterns and QRA as potential dynamic pathways for Arctic warming to influence midlatitude weather. Moreover, the synchronization of variance increases between the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins in the late 20th century is unprecedented over the last 290 years and strongly suggests an impact of anthropogenic warming.

Effect of summer heat environment on body temperature, estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cow.

PubMed

Sakatani, Miki; Balboula, Ahmed Z; Yamanaka, Kenichi; Takahashi, Masashi

2012-05-01

This study investigated the effect of summer heat environment on estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cows. A total of 13 non-lactating Japanese Black cows (summer: 9, winter: 4) were examined. Body temperature was measured rectally and intravaginally using a thermometer and data logger, respectively. Estrous behavior was monitored using a radiotelemetric pedometer that recorded walking activity. Rectal temperatures were higher during summer than winter (P<0.001). There was an acute increase in vaginal temperature at the onset of estrus during winter but such an increase was not observed during summer. Walking activity during estrus decreased dramatically in the summer compared to the winter. Duration of estrous cycle was longer in summer (23.4 days, P<0.05) than winter (21.5 days), and the subsequent rise in progesterone concentrations following estrus tended to be delayed in summer. The level of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in peripheral blood cells was higher during summer (P<0.05), while the levels of superoixde dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glutathione were lower (P<0.05). These results indicate that high ambient temperature during summer increases both body temperature and oxidative stress, and also reduces signs of estrus in Japanese Black cows. © 2011 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2011 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part I: Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wen; Wang, Bin; Yim, So-Young

2016-07-01

The interannual variation of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall exhibits considerable differences between early summer [May-June (MJ)] and peak summer [July-August (JA)]. The present study focuses on peak summer. During JA, the mean ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical High (WPSH) divides EASM domain into two sub-domains: the tropical EA (5°N-26.5°N) and subtropical-extratropical EA (26.5°N-50°N). Since the major variability patterns in the two sub-domains and their origins are substantially different, the Part I of this study concentrates on the tropical EA or Southeast Asia (SEA). We apply the predictable mode analysis approach to explore the predictability and prediction of the SEA peak summer rainfall. Four principal modes of interannual rainfall variability during 1979-2013 are identified by EOF analysis: (1) the WPSH-dipole sea surface temperature (SST) feedback mode in the Northern Indo-western Pacific warm pool associated with the decay of eastern Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (2) the central Pacific-ENSO mode, (3) the Maritime continent SST-Australian High coupled mode, which is sustained by a positive feedback between anomalous Australian high and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over Indian Ocean, and (4) the ENSO developing mode. Based on understanding of the sources of the predictability for each mode, a set of physics-based empirical (P-E) models is established for prediction of the first four leading principal components (PCs). All predictors are selected from either persistent atmospheric lower boundary anomalies from March to June or the tendency from spring to early summer. We show that these four modes can be predicted reasonably well by the P-E models, thus they are identified as the predictable modes. Using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns, we have made a 35-year cross-validated hindcast, setting up a bench mark for dynamic models' predictions. The P-E hindcast prediction skill represented by domain-averaged temporal correlation coefficient is 0.44, which is twice higher than the skill of the current dynamical hindcast, suggesting that the dynamical models have large rooms to improve. The maximum potential attainable prediction skills for the peak summer SEA rainfall is also estimated and discussed by using the PMA. High predictability regions are found over several climatological rainfall centers like Indo-China peninsula, southern coast of China, southeastern SCS, and Philippine Sea.

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

Association of spring-summer hydrology and meteorology with human West Nile virus infection in West Texas, USA, 2002-2016.

PubMed

Ukawuba, Israel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2018-04-04

The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Western Hemisphere has motivated research into the processes contributing to the incidence and persistence of the disease in the region. Meteorology and hydrology are fundamental determinants of vector-borne disease transmission dynamics of a region. The availability of water influences the population dynamics of vector and host, while temperature impacts vector growth rates, feeding habits, and disease transmission potential. Characterization of the temporal pattern of environmental factors influencing WNV risk is crucial to broaden our understanding of local transmission dynamics and to inform efforts of control and surveillance. We used hydrologic, meteorological and WNV data from west Texas (2002-2016) to analyze the relationship between environmental conditions and annual human WNV infection. A Bayesian model averaging framework was used to evaluate the association of monthly environmental conditions with WNV infection. Findings indicate that wet conditions in the spring combined with dry and cool conditions in the summer are associated with increased annual WNV cases. Bayesian multi-model inference reveals monthly means of soil moisture, specific humidity and temperature to be the most important variables among predictors tested. Environmental conditions in March, June, July and August were the leading predictors in the best-fitting models. The results significantly link soil moisture and temperature in the spring and summer to WNV transmission risk. Wet spring in association with dry and cool summer was the temporal pattern best-describing WNV, regardless of year. Our findings also highlight that soil moisture may be a stronger predictor of annual WNV transmission than rainfall.

Marine Climate Archives across the Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age Transition from Viking and Medieval Age Shells, Orkney, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surge, D. M.; Barrett, J. H.

2013-12-01

Proxy records reconstructing marine climatic conditions across the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900-1350 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1350-1850) are strongly biased towards decadal to annual resolution and summer/growing seasons. Here we present new archives of seasonal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) from shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, which accumulated in Viking and medieval shell and fish middens at Quoygrew on Westray, Orkney. SST was reconstructed at submonthly resolution using oxygen isotope ratios preserved in shells from the 12th and mid 15th centuries (MCA and LIA, respectively). MCA shells recorded warmer summers and colder winters by ~2 degrees C relative to the late 20th Century (1961-1990). Therefore, seasonality was higher during the MCA relative to the late 20th century. Without the benefit of seasonal resolution, SST averaged from shell time series would be weighted toward the fast-growing summer season, resulting in the conclusion that the early MCA was warmer than the late 20th century by ~1°C. This conclusion is broadly true for the summer season, but not true for the winter season. Higher seasonality and cooler winters during early medieval times may result from a weakened North Atlantic Oscillation index. In contrast, the LIA shells have a more a variable inter-annual pattern. Some years record cooler summers and winters relative to the MCA shells and late 20th century, whereas other years record warmer summers and cooler winters similar to the MCA shells. Our findings provide a new test for the accuracy of seasonal amplitudes resulting from paleoclimate model experiments.

Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Ping; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Liu, Yunyun; Yuan, Xing; Li, Xiaofan; Jiang, Xingwen

2018-05-01

To demonstrate the challenge of summer rainfall prediction and simulation in the eastern China, in this work, we examine the skill of the state-of-the-art climate models, evaluate the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on forecast skill and estimate the predictability by using perfect model approach. The challenge is further demonstrated by assessing the ability of various reanalyses in capturing the observed summer rainfall variability in the eastern China and by examining the biases in reanalyses and in a climate model. Summer rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) initiated in May from eight seasonal forecast systems have low forecast skill with linear correlation of - 0.3 to 0.5 with observations. The low forecast skill is consistent with the low perfect model score ( 0.1-0.3) of atmospheric model forced by observed SST, due to the fact that external forcing (SST) may play a secondary role in the summer rainfall variation in the eastern China. This is a common feature for the climate variation over the middle and high latitude lands, where the internal dynamical processes dominate the rainfall variation in the eastern China and lead to low predictability, and external forcing (such as SST) plays a secondary role and is associated with predictable fraction. Even the reanalysis rainfall has some remarkable disagreements with the observation. Statistically, more than 20% of the observed variance is not captured by the mean of six reanalyses. Among the reanalyses, JRA55 stands out as the most reliable one. In addition, the reanalyses and climate model have pronounced biases in simulating the mean rainfall. These defaults mean an additional challenge in predicting the summer rainfall variability in the eastern China that has low predictability in nature.

Spatial and temporal variability of seawater pCO2 within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay during the summer and autumn 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geilfus, N.-X.; Pind, M. L.; Else, B. G. T.; Galley, R. J.; Miller, L. A.; Thomas, H.; Gosselin, M.; Rysgaard, S.; Wang, F.; Papakyriakou, T. N.

2018-03-01

The partial pressure of CO2 in surface water (pCO2sw) measured within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Baffin Bay was highly variable with values ranging from strongly undersaturated (118 μatm) to slightly supersaturated (419 μatm) with respect to the atmospheric levels ( 386 μatm) during summer and autumn 2011. During summer, melting sea ice contributed to cold and fresh surface water and enhanced the ice-edge bloom, resulting in strong pCO2sw undersaturation. Coronation Gulf was the only area with supersaturated pCO2sw, likely due to warm CO2-enriched freshwater input from the Coppermine River. During autumn, the entire CAA (including Coronation Gulf) was undersaturated, despite generally increasing pCO2sw. Coronation Gulf was the one place where pCO2sw decreased, likely due to seasonal reduction in discharge from the Coppermine River and the decreasing sea surface temperature. The seasonal summer-to-autumn increase in pCO2sw across the archipelago is attributed in part to the continuous uptake of atmospheric CO2 through both summer and autumn and to the seasonal deepening of the surface mixed layer, bringing CO2-rich waters to the surface. These observations demonstrate how freshwater from sea ice melt and rivers affect pCO2sw differently. The general pCO2sw undersaturation during summer-autumn 2011 throughout the CAA and Baffin Bay give an estimated net oceanic sink for atmospheric CO2 over the study period of 11.4 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1, assuming no sea-air CO2 flux exchange across the sea-ice covered areas.

The Impact of Spring Subsurface Soil Temperature Anomaly in the Western U.S. on North American Summer Precipitation: A Case Study Using Regional Climate Model Downscaling

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-02

regional climate model downscaling , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D11103, doi:10.1029/2012JD017692. 1. Introduction [2] Modeling studies and data analyses...based on ground and satellite data have demonstrated that the land surface state variables, such as soil moisture, snow, vegetation, and soil temperature... downscaling rather than simply applying reanal- ysis data as LBC for both Eta control and sensitivity experiments as done in many RCM sensitivity studies

Near-coastal ocean variability off southern Tamaulipas - northern Veracruz, western Gulf of Mexico, during spring-summer 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas, David

2016-04-01

Six months of observations from a near-coastal mooring deployed off southern Tamaulipas-northern Veracruz coast (western Gulf of Mexico) during spring-summer 2013 provides velocity, temperature, salinity, sea level, and dissolved oxygen series in a region which ocean dynamics is still poorly understood. As shown in a preceding analysis of this region's winter circulation for winter 2012-2013, coastal trapped motions associated with the regional invasion of synoptic cold fronts modulate the local variability; this pattern remains in the spring 2013, when even more intense events of alongshore flow (>50 cm/s) are observed. This intensified flow is associated with a significant decrease in the dissolved oxygen, most probably related to an influence of hypoxic waters coming from the northern Gulf. In late spring-mid summer, the wind pattern corresponds to persistent southeasterly winds that favor the occurrence of a local upwelling, which maintains a local thermal reduction (>3 degrees Celsius) and is associated with a persistent northward flow (>30 cm/s). The late summer was characterized by a significant tropical-cyclone activity, when a depression, a storm, and a hurricane affected the western Gulf. These tropical systems caused an intense precipitation and hence an important intensification of the local riverine discharge, and the winds enhanced the mixing of such riverine waters, via mostly kinetic stirring and Ekman pumping.

Hydroclimatic variability in loess δDwax records from the central Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 250 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zheng; An, Zhisheng; Liu, Zhonghui; Qiang, Xiaoke; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Weiguo

2018-04-01

This study reports hydrogen isotopic records from the central Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) over the past 250 ka. After eliminating the influence of ice and local temperatures, the δDwax records extracted from two loess sites at Xifeng and Luochuan can be taken to represent arid/humid alternations in the hydrological environment in this marginal Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) region; they also contain integrated information on summer precipitation patterns and the corresponding responses to these changes by predominant vegetation cover types. These arid/humid alternations show 100 ka, 40 ka and 20 ka cycles. An increase in precipitation in association with an enhanced summer monsoon has historically been taken to be the major factor driving a humid environment in the central CLP. However, hydroclimatic changes in δDwax records differ for the central CLP, central China and southern China. Over a 20 ka cycle, the influence of solar insolation on hydroclimatic changes can be shown to be consistent throughout the central CLP. However, changes in the relative location of the land and sea may have caused different hydroclimatic responses between southern China and the central CLP on a glacial-interglacial scale. The hydroclimatic variability in the central CLP would suggest that an enhanced summer monsoon due to climatic warming is the key to understanding decreased drought degree in this marginal monsoonal region.

Changing Seasonality of Tundra Vegetation and Associated Climatic Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J.; Tucker, C. J.; Steele, M.; Ermold, W. S.; Zhang, J.

2014-12-01

This study documents changes in the seasonality of tundra vegetation productivity and its associated climate variables using long-term data sets. An overall increase of Pan-Arctic tundra greenness potential corresponds to increased land surface temperatures and declining sea ice concentrations. While sea ice has continued to decline, summer land surface temperature and vegetation productivity increases have stalled during the last decade in parts of the Arctic. To understand the processes behind these features we investigate additional climate parameters. This study employs remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2013. Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI, Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), ocean heat content (PIOMAS, model incorporating ocean data assimilation), and snow water equivalent (GlobSnow, assimilated snow data set) are explored. We analyzed the data for the full period (1982-2013) and for two sub-periods (1982-1998 and 1999-2013), which were chosen based on the declining Pan-Arctic SWI since 1998. MaxNDVI has increased from 1982-2013 over most of the Arctic but has declined from 1999 to 2013 over western Eurasia, northern Canada, and southwest Alaska. TI-NDVI has trends that are similar to those for MaxNDVI for the full period but displays widespread declines over the 1999-2013 period. Therefore, as the MaxNDVI has continued to increase overall for the Arctic, TI-NDVI has been declining since 1999. SWI has large relative increases over the 1982-2013 period in eastern Canada and Greenland and strong declines in western Eurasia and southern Canadian tundra. Weekly Pan-Arctic tundra land surface temperatures warmed throughout the summer during the 1982-1998 period but display midsummer declines from 1999-2013. Weekly snow water equivalent over Arctic tundra has declined over most seasons but shows slight increases in spring in North America and during fall over Eurasia. Later spring or earlier fall snow cover can both lead to reductions in TI-NDVI. The time-varying spatial patterns of NDVI trends can be largely explained using either snow cover or land surface temperature trends.

Amplitude-dependent relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in austral summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Baek-Min; Choi, Hyesun; Kim, Seong-Joong; Choi, Wookap

2017-02-01

Co-variability between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the austral summer is examined, and it is found that there exists an apparent co-variability of a negative (positive) SAM during the mature period of El Niño (La Niña). However, this co-variability is largely controlled by the small number of strong ENSO cases. When strong ENSO cases are excluded, the correlation becomes non-significant. This behavior in the relationship between SAM and ENSO is supported by a series of general circulation model experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature boundary conditions that represent the incremental strengthening of El Niño (La Niña) conditions. The modeled Antarctic sub-polar jet exhibits similar behavior to that identified through observational analysis. Marked changes in both the magnitude and position of the sub-polar jet are largely controlled by particularly strong transient eddy forcing. Planetary wave forcing plays only a minor role in the co-variability, but it can explain in part the asymmetric response of the sub-polar jet between El Niño and La Niña.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

Intermitted Occurrence of Millennial-scale Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon before 1.45 Ma based on the High-resolution Br Record of the Japan Sea Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tada, R.; Seki, A.; Ikeda, M.; Irino, T.; Ikehara, K.; Karasuda, A.; Sugisaki, S.; Sagawa, T.; Itaki, T.; Kubota, Y.; Murayama, M.; Lu, S.; Murray, R. W.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.

2017-12-01

It is well-known that Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles (DOC) and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) are closely linked during the last glacial period, and that Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC) played a key role to amplify and propagate the DOC signal. Climatic model studies also suggested that on and off of AMOC caused simultaneous north-south shifts of westerly jets (WJ) in both hemispheres and ITCZ. Since WJ over East Asia bounds the northern limit of EASM front, it is likely that N-S shifts of WJ caused millennial-scale variability of EASM precipitation distribution. This linkage can be traced back to ca. 0.4 Ma based on comparison of synthetic Greenland temperature record of Barker et al. (2011) with d18O record of Chinese speleothems, and back to 0.8 Ma based on comparison of synthetic Greenland temperature record with Br profile of the hemipelagic sediments of the Japan Sea (reflecting marine organic carbon content and considered as a proxy of EASM) retrieved from Site U1424 during IODP Exp. 346. Br profile of the Japan Sea sediments also implies that millennial-scale variability of EASM was persistent since ca. 1.45 Ma ago, which was probably linked with AMOC variability. However, presence/absence of millennial-scale variability of EASM and possibility of its linkage with AMOC variability are not known for the period before 1.45 Ma. Here we extend our Br record of Site U1424 back to ca. 3 Ma and demonstrate that there was intermitted occurrence of millennial-scale EASM variability since ca. 2.5 Ma when LR04 glacial d18O value first exceeded ca. 4 permil. This may suggest the presence of threshold of ice volume to cause millennial-scale variability of AMOC and EASM.

Inter-Annual Variability in Stream Water Temperature, Microclimate and Heat Exchanges: a Comparison of Forest and Moorland Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I.; Sadler, J. P.

2012-12-01

Riparian forest is recognised as important for moderating stream temperature variability and has the potential to mitigate thermal extremes in a changing climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges controlling water column temperature has often been short-term or seasonally-constrained, with the few multi-year studies limited to a maximum of two years. This study advances previous work by providing a longer-term perspective which allows assessment of inter-annual variability in stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange dynamics between a semi-natural woodland and a moorland (no trees) reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Scottish Dee. Automatic weather stations collected 15-minute data over seven consecutive years, which to our knowledge is a unique data set in providing the longest term perspective to date on stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange processes. Results for spring-summer indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a consistent effect between years in reducing the magnitude and variability of mean daily water column temperature and daily net energy totals. Differences in the magnitude and variability in net energy fluxes between the study reaches were driven primarily by fluctuations in net radiation and latent heat fluxes in response to between- and within-year variability in growth of the riparian forest canopy at the forest and prevailing weather conditions at both the forest and moorland. This research provides new insights on the inter-annual variability of stream energy exchanges for moorland and forested reaches under a wide range of climatological and hydrological conditions. The findings therefore provide a more robust process basis for modelling the impact of changes in forest practice and climate change on river thermal dynamics.

Thermal buffering of concrete by seaweeds during a prolonged summer heatwave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, Larissa; Coombes, Martin

2014-05-01

Hard coastal infrastructure is subject to aggressive environmental conditions, including a suite of weathering processes in the intertidal zone. These processes, along with waves, lead to costly deterioration of coastal structures. Existing methods (e.g. coatings, less porous concrete) to reduce the risk of concrete deterioration rapidly lose their effectiveness in the intertidal zone. Additionally, a changing climate will lead to increased frequency of storms, higher sea level and higher extreme temperatures - and therefore, pose an increased risk of deterioration. Might there be a biogenic solution? New research (Coombes et al. 2013) has shown that fucoid seaweeds reduce microclimatic extremes and variability under normal summer conditions. The results presented here supplement these findings in two ways. First, they demonstrate that fucoid seaweeds act as a thermal buffer during a prolonged summer heatwave in Britain (July 2013). Over 36 days of continuous monitoring at two sites in Cornwall, UK, 19 of which were during the official heatwave, there were statistically significant differences (p = 0.000) in the maximum temperatures between thick seaweed (7.5 - 9.5 cm thickness) and thin seaweed (2 - 2.5 cm thickness) plots. Maximum temperatures reached 22°C and 33°C, for thick seaweed and thin seaweed plots, respectively. Variations in maximum temperatures between the two sites appear to be related to aspect. Second, the significantly different maximum temperature results between plots also demonstrate that seaweed thickness is an important factor influencing thermal buffering capacity. These data clearly demonstrate that fucoid seaweeds buffer concrete seawalls against extreme temperature fluxes during a heatwave, probably limiting the efficiency of deteriorative processes such as thermal expansion and contraction and salt crystallisation.

Correlation between asthma and climate in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey.

PubMed

Verlato, Giuseppe; Calabrese, Rolando; De Marco, Roberto

2002-01-01

The European Community Respiratory Health Survey, performed during 1991-1993, found a remarkable geographical variability in the prevalence of asthma and asthma-like symptoms in individuals aged 20-44 yr. The highest values occurred in the English-speaking centers. In the present investigation, the ecological relationship between climate and symptom prevalence was evaluated in the 48 centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. Meteorological variables were derived from the Global Historical Climatology Network and were averaged over an 11-yr period (i.e., 1980-1990). Respiratory symptom prevalence was directly related to temperature in the coldest month and was related inversely to the temperature in the hottest month. Warm winters and cool summers are features of oceanic climate found in most English-speaking centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (i.e., England, New Zealand, and Oregon). In conclusion, climate can account for significant geographic variability in respiratory symptom prevalence.

Possible causes of Arctic Tundra Vegetation Productivity Declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2017-12-01

Three decades of remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data document an overall increase in Arctic tundra vegetation greenness but the trends display considerable spatial variability. Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greening is associated with increases in summer warmth that are, in large-part, driven by summer sea-ice retreat along Arctic coasts. Trends covering the period 1982-2016 are overall positive for summer open water, Summer Warmth Index (SWI, the sum of the degree months above zero from May-August), MaxNDVI (peak NDVI) and time integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI, sum of biweekly NDVI above 0.05 from May-September). Upon closer examination, it is clear that not all regions have positive trends, for example, there is an area of cooling in western Eurasia, which is broadly co-located with maxNDVI and TI-NDVI declines. While sea ice decline has continued over the satellite record, summer landsurface temperatures and vegetation productivity measures have not simply increased. Regional differences between warming and greening trends suggest that it is likely that multiple processes influence vegetation productivity beyond secular greening with increased summer warmth. This paper will present Pan-Arctic and regional analyses of the NDVI data in the context of climate drivers. Other possible drivers of vegetation productivity decline will be discussed such as increased standing water, delayed spring snow-melt, and winter thaw events. The status and limitations of data sets and modeling needed to advance our understanding of tundra vegetation productivity will be summarized and will serve as a starting point for planning the next steps in this topic. Methodical multi-disciplinary synthesis research that jointly considers vegetation type, permafrost conditions, altitude, as well as climate factors such as temperature, heat and moisture transport, and timing of snowfall and spring snowmelt is needed to better understand recent tundra vegetation productivity declines.

Influence of winter season climate variability on snow-precipitation ratio in the western United States

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Shraddhanand Shukla; Ivan Arismendi; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Anne Nolin

2015-01-01

In the western United States, climate warming poses a unique threat to water and snow hydrology because much of the snowpack accumulates at temperatures near 0 °C. As the climate continues to warm, much of the region's precipitation is expected to switch from snow to rain, causing flashier hydrographs, earlier inflow to reservoirs, and reduced spring and summer...

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

2016-01-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.

Contrasting shrub species respond to early summer temperatures leading to correspondence of shrub growth patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijers, Stef; Pape, Roland; Löffler, Jörg; Myers-Smith, Isla H.

2018-03-01

The Arctic-alpine biome is warming rapidly, resulting in a gradual replacement of low statured species by taller woody species in many tundra ecosystems. In northwest North America, the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggests an increase in productivity of the Arctic and alpine tundra and a decrease in productivity of boreal forests. However, the responses of contrasting shrub species growing at the same sites to climate drivers remain largely unexplored. Here, we test growth, climate, and NDVI relationships of two contrasting species: the expanding tall deciduous shrub Salix pulchra and the circumarctic evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona from an alpine tundra site in the Pika valley in the Kluane Region, southwest Yukon Territories, Canada. We found that annual growth variability of both species at this site is strongly driven by early summer temperatures, despite their contrasting traits and habitats. Shrub growth chronologies for both species were correlated with the regional climate signal and showed spatial correspondence with interannual variation in NDVI in surrounding alpine and Arctic regions. Our results suggest that early summer warming represents a common driver of vegetation change for contrasting shrub species growing in different habitats in the same alpine environments.

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2015-03-07

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Linking hydrolytic activities to variables influencing a submerged membrane bioreactor (MBR) treating urban wastewater under real operating conditions.

PubMed

Gómez-Silván, C; Arévalo, J; Pérez, J; González-López, J; Rodelas, B

2013-01-01

The seasonal variation of the hydrolytic activities acid and alkaline phosphatase, α-glucosidase and protease, was studied in both the aerated and anoxic phases of a full-scale membrane bioreactor (MBR) (total operational volume = 28.2 m(3)), operated in pre-denitrification mode and fed real urban wastewater. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) and BIO-ENV analysis were used to study the distribution of enzyme activities in different seasons of the year (spring, summer and autumn) and unveil their relationships with changes in variables influencing the system (composition of influent wastewater, activated sludge temperature and biomass concentration in the bioreactors). The activities of all the tested hydrolases were remarkably dynamic, and each enzyme showed complex and diverse patterns of variation. Except in the summer season, the variables included in this study gave a good explanation of those patterns and displayed high and consistent correlations with them; however, markedly different correlation trends were found in each season, indicating dissimilar adaptation responses of the community to the influence of changing conditions. A consistent and highly negative correlation between protease and α-glucosidase was revealed in all the experiments. The variables included in this study showed contrary influences on these activities, suggesting an alternation of the major groups of carbon-degrading hydrolases in connection to changes in temperature and the availability and composition of nutrients in the different seasons. Sampling over a long period of time was required to adequately lay down the links between hydrolytic activities and the variables influencing the MBR system. These results highlight the complexity of the regulation of substrate degradation by the mixed microbial sludge communities under real operating conditions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

Influences of wildfire and channel reorganization on spatial and temporal variation in stream temperature and the distribution of fish and amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, J.B.; Rosenberger, A.E.; Luce, C.H.; Rieman, B.E.

2007-01-01

Wildfire can influence a variety of stream ecosystem properties. We studied stream temperatures in relation to wildfire in small streams in the Boise River Basin, located in central Idaho, USA. To examine the spatio-temporal aspects of temperature in relation to wildfire, we employed three approaches: a pre-post fire comparison of temperatures between two sites (one from a burned stream and one unburned) over 13 years, a short-term (3 year) pre-post fire comparison of a burned and unburned stream with spatially extensive data, and a short-term (1 year) comparative study of spatial variability in temperatures using a "space for time" substitutive design across 90 sites in nine streams (retrospective comparative study). The latter design included streams with a history of stand-replacing wildfire and streams with severe post-fire reorganization of channels due to debris flows and flooding. Results from these three studies indicated that summer maximum water temperatures can remain significantly elevated for at least a decade following wildfire, particularly in streams with severe channel reorganization. In the retrospective comparative study we investigated occurrence of native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and tailed frog larvae (Ascaphus montanus) in relation to maximum stream temperatures during summer. Both occurred in nearly every site sampled, but tailed frog larvae were found in much warmer water than previously reported in the field (26.6??C maximum summer temperature). Our results show that physical stream habitats can remain altered (for example, increased temperature) for many years following wildfire, but that native aquatic vertebrates can be resilient. In a management context, this suggests wildfire may be less of a threat to native species than human influences that alter the capacity of stream-living vertebrates to persist in the face of natural disturbance. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Using water to cool cattle: behavioral and physiological changes associated with voluntary use of cow showers.

PubMed

Legrand, A; Schütz, K E; Tucker, C B

2011-07-01

Water is commonly used to cool cattle in summer either at milking or over the feed bunk, but little research has examined how dairy cows voluntarily use water separate from these locations. The objectives were to describe how and when dairy cattle voluntarily used an overhead water source separate from other resources, such as feed, and how use of this water affected behavioral and physiological indicators of heat stress. Half of the 24 nonlactating cattle tested had access to a "cow shower" composed of 2 shower heads activated by a pressure-sensitive floor. All animals were individually housed to prevent competition for access to the shower. Over 5 d in summer (air temperature=25.3±3.3°C, mean ± standard deviation), cattle spent 3.0±2.1 h/24h in the shower, but considerable variability existed between animals (individual daily values ranged from 0.0 to 8.2 h/24h). A portion of this variation can be explained by weather; shower use increased by 0.3h for every 1°C increase in ambient temperature. Cows preferentially used the shower during the daytime, with 89±12% of the time spent in the shower between 1000 and 1900 h. Respiration rate and skin temperature did not differ between treatments [53 vs. 61 breaths/min and 35.0 vs. 35.4°C in shower and control cows, respectively; standard error of the difference (SED)=5.6 breaths/min and 0.49°C]. In contrast, body temperature of cows provided with a shower was 0.2°C lower than control cows in the evening (i.e., 1800 to 2100h; SED=0.11°C). Cows with access to a shower spent half as much time near the water trough than control animals, and this pattern became more pronounced as the temperature-humidity index increased. In addition, cattle showed other behavioral changes to increasing heat load; they spent less time lying when heat load index increased, but the time spent lying, feeding, and standing without feeding did not differ between treatments. Cows had higher respiration rate, skin temperature, and body temperature as heat load index increased, regardless of treatment. These data suggest that cattle, when given the opportunity, will make considerable use of a shower to reduce heat load, but that individuals are highly variable in their use of this resource. The variability between cows indicates that the behavioral response to water is likely an important, but poorly understood, consideration in the design of sprinkler systems used for summer cooling. Copyright © 2011 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Karakoram/Western Tibetan vortex: seasonal and year-to-year variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao-Feng; Fowler, Hayley J.; Forsythe, Nathan; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Pritchard, David

2018-02-01

The "Karakoram Vortex" (KV), hereafter also referred to as the "Western Tibetan Vortex" (WTV), has recently been recognized as a large-scale atmospheric circulation system related to warmer (cooler) near-surface and mid-lower troposphere temperatures above the Karakoram in the western Tibetan Plateau (TP). It is characterized by a deep, anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) wind anomaly associated with higher (lower) geopotential height in the troposphere, during winter and summer seasons. In this study, we further investigate the seasonality and basic features of the WTV in all four seasons, and explore its year-to-year variability and influence on regional climate. We find the WTV accounts for the majority of year-to-year circulation variability over the WTP as it can explain over 50% ({R^2} ≥slant 0.5 ) variance of the WTP circulation on multiple levels throughout the troposphere, which declines towards the eastern side of the TP in most seasons. The WTV is not only more (less) active but also has a bigger (smaller) domain area, with a deeper (shallower) structure, in winter and spring (summer and autumn). We find that the WTV is sensitive to both the location and intensity of the Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ), but the relationship is highly dependent on the climatological mean location of SWJ axes relative to the TP in different seasons. We also show that the WTV significantly modulates surface and stratospheric air temperatures, north-south precipitation patterns and total column ozone surrounding the western TP. As such, the WTV has important implications for the understanding of atmospheric, hydrological and glaciological variability over the TP.

Coast Salish and U.S. Geological Survey 2009 Tribal Journey water quality project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akin, Sarah K.; Grossman, Eric E.

2010-01-01

The Salish Sea, contained within the United States and British Columbia, Canada, is the homeland of the Coast Salish Peoples and contains a diverse array of marine resources unique to this area that have sustained Coast Salish cultures and traditions for millennia. In July 2009, the Coast Salish People and U.S. Geological Survey conducted a second water quality study of the Salish Sea to examine spatial and temporal variability of environmental conditions of these surface waters as part of the annual Tribal Journey. Six canoes of approximately 100 towed multi parameter water-quality sondes as the Salish People traveled their ancestral waters during the middle of summer. Sea surface temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity were measured simultaneously at ten-second intervals, and more than 54,000 data points spanning 1,300 kilometers of the Salish Sea were collected. The project also synthesized Coast Salish ecological knowledge and culture with scientific monitoring to better understand and predict the response of coastal habitats and marine resources. Comparisons with data collected in 2008 reveal significantly higher mean surface-water temperatures in most subbasins in 2009 linked to record air temperatures that affected the Pacific Northwest in July 2009. Through large-scale spatial measurements collected each summer, the project helps to identify patterns in summer water quality, areas of water-quality impairment, and trends occurring through time.

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Kumar, Arun; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Temperature and mineral dust variability recorded in two low-accumulation Alpine ice cores over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohleber, Pascal; Erhardt, Tobias; Spaulding, Nicole; Hoffmann, Helene; Fischer, Hubertus; Mayewski, Paul

2018-01-01

Among ice core drilling sites in the European Alps, Colle Gnifetti (CG) is the only non-temperate glacier to offer climate records dating back at least 1000 years. This unique long-term archive is the result of an exceptionally low net accumulation driven by wind erosion and rapid annual layer thinning. However, the full exploitation of the CG time series has been hampered by considerable dating uncertainties and the seasonal summer bias in snow preservation. Using a new core drilled in 2013 we extend annual layer counting, for the first time at CG, over the last 1000 years and add additional constraints to the resulting age scale from radiocarbon dating. Based on this improved age scale, and using a multi-core approach with a neighbouring ice core, we explore the time series of stable water isotopes and the mineral dust proxies Ca2+ and insoluble particles. Also in our latest ice core we face the already known limitation to the quantitative use of the stable isotope variability based on a high and potentially non-stationary isotope/temperature sensitivity at CG. Decadal trends in Ca2+ reveal substantial agreement with instrumental temperature and are explored here as a potential site-specific supplement to the isotope-based temperature reconstruction. The observed coupling between temperature and Ca2+ trends likely results from snow preservation effects and the advection of dust-rich air masses coinciding with warm temperatures. We find that if calibrated against instrumental data, the Ca2+-based temperature reconstruction is in robust agreement with the latest proxy-based summer temperature reconstruction, including a Little Ice Age cold period as well as a medieval climate anomaly. Part of the medieval climate period around AD 1100-1200 clearly stands out through an increased occurrence of dust events, potentially resulting from a relative increase in meridional flow and/or dry conditions over the Mediterranean.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Effects of growth temperature and winter duration on leaf phenology of a spring ephemeral (Gagea lutea) and a summergreen forb (Maianthemum dilatatum).

PubMed

Yoshie, Fumio

2008-09-01

Effects of growth temperature and winter duration on leaf longevity were compared between a spring ephemeral, Gagea lutea, and a forest summergreen forb, Maianthemum dilatatum. The plants were grown at day/night temperatures of 25/20 degrees C and 15/10 degrees C after a chilling treatment for variable periods at 2 degrees C. The temperature regime of 25/20 degrees C was much higher than the mean air temperatures for both species in their native habitats. Warm temperature of 25/20 degrees C and/or long chilling treatment shortened leaf longevity in G. lutea, but not in M. dilatatum. The response of G. lutea was consistent with that reported for other spring ephemerals. Air temperature increases as the vegetative season progresses. The decrease in leaf longevity in G. lutea under warm temperature condition ensures leaf senescence in summer, an unfavorable season for its growth. This also implies that early leaf senescence could occur in years with early summers. Warm spring temperatures have been shown to accelerate the leafing-out of forest trees. The decrease in leaf longevity due to warm temperature helps synchronize the period of leaf senescence roughly with the time of the forest canopy leaf-out. Prolonged winter due to late snowmelt has been shown to shorten the vegetative period for spring ephemerals. The decrease in leaf longevity due to long chilling treatment would correspond with this shortened vegetative period.

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

DOE PAGES

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Norby, Richard J.; Hanson, Paul J.; ...

2017-04-18

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPPmore » in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. Here, the model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO 2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a “soil” layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum “canopy” properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).« less

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Norby, Richard J.; Hanson, Paul J.

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPPmore » in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. Here, the model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO 2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a “soil” layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum “canopy” properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).« less

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Anthony P.; Carter, Kelsey R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hanson, Paul J.; Malhotra, Avni; Norby, Richard J.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.

2017-05-01

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPP in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. The model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a "soil" layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum "canopy" properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).

140-year subantarctic tree-ring temperature reconstruction reveals tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turney, C. S.; Fogwill, C. J.; Palmer, J. G.; VanSebille, E.; Thomas, Z.; McGlone, M.; Richardson, S.; Wilmshurst, J.; Fenwick, P.; Zunz, V.; Goosse, H.; Wilson, K. J.; Carter, L.; Lipson, M.; Jones, R. T.; Harsch, M.; Clark, G.; Marzinelli, E.; Rogers, T.; Rainsley, E.; Ciasto, L.; Waterman, S.; Thomas, E. R.; Visbeck, M.

2017-12-01

Occupying about 14 % of the world's surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. Unfortunately, high interannual variability and a dearth of instrumental observations before the 1950s limits our understanding of how marine-atmosphere-ice domains interact on multi-decadal timescales and the impact of anthropogenic forcing. Here we integrate climate-sensitive tree growth with ocean and atmospheric observations on south-west Pacific subantarctic islands that lie at the boundary of polar and subtropical climates (52-54˚S). Our annually resolved temperature reconstruction captures regional change since the 1870s and demonstrates a significant increase in variability from the 1940s, a phenomenon predating the observational record, and coincident with major changes in mammalian and bird populations. Climate reanalysis and modelling show a parallel change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that generate an atmospheric Rossby wave train which propagates across a large part of the Southern Hemisphere during the austral spring and summer. Our results suggest that modern observed high interannual variability was established across the mid-twentieth century, and that the influence of contemporary equatorial Pacific temperatures may now be a permanent feature across the mid- to high latitudes.

Variational data assimilative modeling of the Gulf of Maine in spring and summer 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yizhen; He, Ruoying; Chen, Ke; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.

2015-05-01

A data assimilative ocean circulation model is used to hindcast the Gulf of Maine [GOM) circulation in spring and summer 2010. Using the recently developed incremental strong constraint 4D Variational data assimilation algorithm, the model assimilates satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles measured by expendable bathythermograph, Argo floats, and shipboard CTD casts. Validation against independent observations shows that the model skill is significantly improved after data assimilation. The data-assimilative model hindcast reproduces the temporal and spatial evolution of the ocean state, showing that a sea level depression southwest of the Scotian Shelf played a critical role in shaping the gulf-wide circulation. Heat budget analysis further demonstrates that both advection and surface heat flux contribute to temperature variability. The estimated time scale for coastal water to travel from the Scotian Shelf to the Jordan Basin is around 60 days, which is consistent with previous estimates based on in situ observations. Our study highlights the importance of resolving upstream and offshore forcing conditions in predicting the coastal circulation in the GOM.

[Plankton dynamics in the South of California Current].

PubMed

Hernández Trujillo, S; Gómez Ochoa, F; Verdugo Díaz, G

2001-03-01

We analyzed zooplankton biomass, micro- and nannophytoplankton abundance, Calanus pacificus Brodsky 1948 abundance, and sea surface temperature along the west coast of Baja California between February 1983 and September 1991. The zooplankton biovolume abundance decreased from spring to autumn. The average abundance of nannophytoplankton (< 20 microns) was generally higher than microphytoplankton (> 20 microns). Both increased 3.5 times in abundance after 1986. Seasonally, both fractions (NP and MP) were least abundant in winter and most abundant in summer and autumn. Calanus pacificus abundance was variable, but especially high in May of some years. Abundance was lowest in winter and highest in spring, dropping in summer and autumn. Sea surface temperatures averaged 21.5 degrees C, with highest in autumn (24.2 degrees C) and the lowest in spring (17.9 degrees C). C. pacificus abundance and sea surface temperature were inversely related by cruise, season, and latitude. The phytoplankton abundance and zooplankton biomass and C. pacificus abundance showed low and high abundance patterns coincident with warming and cooling events (El Niño-La Niña).

Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

2017-10-01

We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central-southern Europe and 45-66% in the north. Thus, the regionalisation carried out in this work has allowed establishing clear distinctions between the meteorological drivers of ozone in northern Europe and in the rest of the continent. These drivers are consistent across the different time scales examined (extremes, day-to-day and interannual), which gives confidence in the robustness of the results.

Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St. George, Scott; Meko, David M.; Evans, Michael N.

2008-09-01

A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2018-06-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2017-12-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Arctic Temperature Variability over the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divine, Dmitry V.; Werner, Johannes P.

2017-04-01

This study presents two new climate field reconstructions (CFR) of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the last 1000 years. The CFR is based on collection of 60 temperature sensitive proxies north of 60 N mainly from the recently updated Pages2K v 2.0.0 global multiproxy database (Pages2K, 2017) of the Common Era supplemented with some new records not yet included in the Pages 2K archive. Using two subsets of annually dated proxy records sensitive to summer temperatures and those representative of both summer and annual mean SAT, we generated seasonal (summer) and annual SAT CFR for the study region. This study provides a substantial extension to the previous Artic CFR reconstruction by Tingley& Huybers (2013) in terms of both the input proxy data density and duration back in time as well as improved reconstruction technique applied. As a major innovation we used a recently developed extension to the BARCAST method of Tingley&Huybers (2010), BARCAST+AMS (Werner&Tingley, 2015) that provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties via probabilistic constraining the age-depth models of time-uncertain climate proxies within the hierarchical Bayesian framework. Preliminary analysis of the new reconstructions confirms the recent warming to interrupt the millennial scale general cooling trend. The rate of contemporary circum- Arctic warming of 0.04(0.01) C year-1 since AD 1961 is unprecedented on the time scale of at least past 1000 years. Since AD 1990 the circum-Arctic SAT persistently exceeds the two historical warm extremes of AD 1014-1017 and 1028-1033 associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). A previous well-recorded early 20th century Arctic warming is manifested as event with a magnitude and duration comparable to a number of other anomalies detected in past centuries including the MCA. The new reconstructions provide a prospective framework for further analysis of seasonal regional past climate variability on the range of time-scales. It includes the periods of past rapid changes in the Arctic with a focus on the regional manifestation and time evolution of past major climate extremes. References: Tingley, M. P. and Huybers, P.: Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years, Nature, 496, 201-205, 2013. Werner, J. P. and Tingley, M. P.: Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model, Clim. Past, 11, 533-545, doi:10.5194/cp-11-533-2015, 2015.

Effects of Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Changes on the Global Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, K.; Liu, J.

2017-12-01

The roles of regional sea surface temperature (SST) variability on modulating the climate system and consequently the air quality are investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform SST anomalies of +/- 1 °C are superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian Oceans individually. Ignoring the response of natural emissions, our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability of surface O3 and PM2.5 concentrations in response to SST anomalies, especially during boreal summers. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv while increases the anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations from 0.5 to 3 µg m-3. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing air pollutant perturbations in most cases. During boreal summers, the increase in tropical SST over different ocean basins enhances deep convection, which significantly increases the air temperature over the upper troposphere and trigger large-scale subsidence over nearby and remote regions. These processes tend to increase tropospheric stability and suppress rainfall at lower mid-latitudes. Consequently, it reduces the vertical transport of O3 to the surface while facilitating the accumulation of PM2.5 concentrations over most regions. In addition, this regional SST warming may also considerably suppress intercontinental transport of air pollution as confirmed with idealized CO-like tracers. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST variability and regional air quality, which can help local air quality management.

How much of the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by SST?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chao; Wu, Bo; Li, Chunhui; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Zheng, Bin; Zhou, Tianjun

2016-07-01

It is widely accepted that the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by sea surface temperature (SST), and SST anomalies are widely used as predictors of East Asian summer rainfall. But it is still not very clear what percentage of the interannual rainfall variability is contributed by SST anomalies. In this study, Atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed interannual varying SST are compared with those forced by the fixed annual cycle of SST climatology, and their ratios of interannual variance (IAV) are analyzed. The output of 12 models from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are adopted, and idealized experiments are done by Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). Both the multi-model median of CMIP5 models and CAM4 experiments show that only about 18 % of the IAV of rainfall over East Asian land (EAL) is explained by SST, which is significantly lower than the tropical western Pacific, but comparable to the mid-latitude western Pacific. There is no significant difference between the southern part and the northern part of EAL in the percentages of SST contribution. The remote SST anomalies regulates rainfall over EAL probably by modulating the horizontal water vapor transport rather than the vertical motion, since the horizontal water vapor transport into EAL is strongly modulated by SST but the vertical motion over EAL is not. Previous studies argued about the relative importance of tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean to East Asian summer rainfall anomalies. Our idealized experiments performed by CAM4 suggest that the contributions from these two ocean basins are comparable to each other, both of which account for approximately 6 % of the total IAV of rainfall over EAL.

Climatology and inter-annual variability of the polar mesospheric winds inferred from meteor radar observations over Sodankylä (67N, 26E) during solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukianova, Renata; Kozlovsky, Alexander; Lester, Mark

2018-06-01

The inter-annual variability, climatological mean wind and tide fields in the northern polar mesosphere/lower thermosphere region of 82-98 km height are studied using observations by the meteor radar which has operated continuously during solar cycle 24 (from December 2008 onward) at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (67N, 26E). Summer mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow, up to 25 m/s, at lower heights and eastward flow, up to 30 m/s, at upper heights. In the winter an eastward flow, up to 10 m/s, dominates at all heights. The meridional winds are characterized by a relatively weak poleward flow (few m/s) in the winter and equatorward flow in the summer, with a jet core (∼15 m/s) located slightly below 90 km. These systematically varying winds are dominated by the semidiurnal tides. The largest amplitudes, up to 30 m/s, are observed at higher altitudes in winter and a secondary maximum is seen in August-September. The diurnal tides are almost a factor of two weaker and peak in summer. The variability of individual years is dominated by the winter perturbations. During the period of observations major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred in January 2009 and 2013. During these events the wind fields were strongly modified. The lowest altitude eastward winds maximized up to 25 m/s, that is by more twice that of the non-SSW years. The poleward flow considerably increases (up 10 m/s) and extends from the lower heights throughout the whole altitude range. The annual pattern in temperature at ∼90 km height over Sodankyla consists of warm winters (up to 200 K) and cold summers (∼120 K).

Effects of ocean-atmosphere coupling on rainfall over the Indian Ocean and northwestern Pacific Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z. Q.; Xie, S. P.; Zhou, W.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM), forced with specified SST, has been widely used in climate studies. On one hand, AGCM is much faster to run compared to coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Also, the identical SST forcing allows a clean evaluation of the atmospheric component of CGCM. On the other hand, the coupling between atmosphere and ocean is missed in such atmosphere-only simulations. It is not clear how such simplification could affect the simulate of the atmosphere. In this study, the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling is studied by comparing a CGCM simulation with an AGCM simulation which is forced with monthly SSTs specified from the CGCM simulation. Particularly, we focus on the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over the IONWP during boreal summer. The IONWP is a unique region with a strong negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during boreal summer on the interannual time scale. The lead/lag correlation analysis suggests a negative feedback of rainfall on SST, which is only reasonably captured by CGCMs. We find that the lack of the negative feedback in AGCM not only enhances the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall but also increases the internal variability of rainfall over the IONWP. A simple mechanism is proposed to explain such enhancement. In addition, AGCM is able to capture the large-scale rainfall pattern over the IONWP during boreal summer, this is because that rainfall here is caused by remote ENSO effect on the interannual time scale. Our results herein suggest that people should be more careful when using an AGCM for climate change studies.

MERIS observations of phytoplankton phenology in the Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Zhang, Daoxi; Lavender, Samantha; Muller, Jan-Peter; Walton, David; Zou, Xi; Shi, Fang

2018-06-13

The historical data from the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) is an invaluable archive for studying global waters from inland lakes to open oceans. Although the MERIS sensor ceased to operate in April 2012, the data capacities are now re-established through the recently launched Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI). The development of a consistent time series for investigating phytoplankton phenology features is crucial if the potential of MERIS and OLCI data is to be fully exploited for inland water monitoring. This study presents a time series of phytoplankton abundance and bloom spatial extent for the highly eutrophic inland water of the Baltic Sea using the 10-year MERIS archive (2002-2011) and a chlorophyll-a based Summed Positive Peaks (SPP) algorithm. A gradient approach in conjunction with the histogram analysis was used to determine a global threshold from the entire collection of SPP images for identifying phytoplankton blooms. This allows spatio-temporal dynamics of daily bloom coverage, timing, phytoplankton abundance and spatial extent to be investigated for each Baltic basin. Furthermore, a number of meteorological and hydrological variables, including spring excess phosphate, summer sea surface temperature and photosynthetically active radiation, were explored using boosted regression trees and generalised additive models to understand the ecological response of phytoplankton assemblages to environmental perturbations and potential predictor variables of summer blooms. The results indicate that the surface layer excess phosphate available in February and March had paramount importance over all other variables considered in governing summer bloom abundance in the major Baltic basins. This finding allows new insights into the development of early warning systems for summer phytoplankton blooms in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Met UM Upper-tropospheric summer jet teleconnections: A model assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joao Carvalho, Maria; Rodriguez, Jose; Milton, Sean

2017-04-01

The upper tropospheric jet stream has been documented to act as a waveguide (Hoskins and Ambrizzi, 1993) and supporting quasi-stationary Rossby waves (Schubert et al. 2011). These have been associated with remote effects in surface level weather such as rainfall anomalies in the East Asian Summer Monsoon as well as extreme temperature events. The goal of this work was to analyse the intraseasonal to interannual upper level boreal summer jet variability and its coupling with low level atmospheric dynamics within the Met Office Unified Model using climate runs. Using the Wallace and Gutzler (1981) proposed approach to find teleconnection patterns on the 200 hPa level wind, lead-lag correlation and Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis on the upper-level jet and relating the results with surface weather variables as well as dynamical variables, it was found that the model presents too strong jet variability, particularly in the tropical region and. In addition, the model presents high teleconnectivity hotspots with higher importance in areas such as the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea which are important source areas for Rossby Waves. Further to this, the model was found to produce an area of teleconnectivity between the tropical Atlantic and western Africa which is not observed in the reanalysis but coexists with long lasting precipitation biases. As comparison for the model results, ERA-Interim circulation and wind data and the TRMM precipitation dataset were used. In order to assess the relative importance of relevant model parameters in the biases and process errors, work is currently underway using perturbed model parameter ensembles.

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedgbrow, C. S.; Wilby, R. L.; Fox, H. R.; O'Hare, G.

2002-02-01

Future climate change scenarios suggest enhanced temporal and spatial gradients in water resources across the UK. Provision of seasonal forecast statistics for surface climate variables could alleviate some negative effects of climate change on water resource infrastructure. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal relationships between large-scale North Atlantic climatic indices, drought severity and river flow anomalies in England and Wales. Potentially useful predictive relationships are explored between winter indices of the Polar-Eurasian (POL) teleconnection pattern, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), and the summer Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and reconstructed river flows in England and Wales. Correlation analyses, coherence testing and an index of forecast potential, demonstrate that preceding winter values of the POL index, SSTA (and to a lesser extent the NAO), provide indications of summer and early autumn drought severity and river flow anomalies in parts of northwest, southwest and southeast England. Correlation analyses demonstrate that positive winter anomalies of T1, POL index and NAO index are associated with negative PDSI (i.e. drought) across eastern parts of the British Isles in summer (r < 0.51). Coherence tests show that a positive winter SSTA (1871-1995) and POL index (1950-95) have preceded below-average summer river flows in the northwest and southwest of England and Wales in 70 to 100% of summers. The same rivers have also experienced below-average flows during autumn following negative winter phases of the NAO index in 64 to 93% of summers (1865-1995). Possible explanations for the predictor-predictand relationships are considered, including the memory of groundwater, and ocean-atmosphere coupling, and regional manifestations of synoptic rainfall processes. However, further research is necessary to increase the number of years and predictor variables from which it is possible to derive rules that may be useful for forecasting.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability during the past.

Temporal variability in chlorophyll fluorescence of back-reef corals in Ofu, American Samoa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piniak, G.A.; Brown, E.K.

2009-01-01

Change in the yield of chlorophyll a fluorescence is a common indicator of thermal stress in corals. The present study reports temporal variability in quantum yield measurements for 10 coral species in Ofu, American Samoa - a place known to experience elevated and variable seawater temperatures. In winter, the zooxanthellae generally had higher dark-adapted maximum quantum yield (F v/Fm), higher light- adapted effective quantum yield (??F/F'm), and lower relative electron transport rates (rETR) than in the summer. Temporal changes appeared unrelated to the expected bleaching sensitivity of corals. All species surveyed, with the exception of Montipora grisea, demonstrated significant temporal changes in the three fluorescence parameters. Fluorescence responses were influenced by the microhabitat - temporal differences in fluorescence parameters were usually observed in the habitat with a more variable temperature regime (pool 300), while differences in Fv/Fm between species were observed only in the more environmentally stable habitat (pool 400). Such species-specific responses and microhabitat variability should be considered when attempting to determine whether observed in situ changes are normal seasonal changes or early signs of bleaching. ?? 2009 Marine Biological Laboratory.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

2005-08-01

Understanding the full range of past monsoon variability, with reference to specific monsoon seasons, is essential to test coupled climate models and improve their predictive capabilities. We present a 54-year long, high-resolution skeletal oxygen isotope (δ18O) record extracted from a well-preserved, massive Porites sp. coral at Hainan Island, South China Sea, to investigate East Asian monsoon variability during summer and winter ∼4400 calendar yr ago. Analysis of modern coral δ18O confirms that Porites from Hainan Island are well positioned to record winter monsoon forcing of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the influence of summer monsoon rainfall on sea surface salinity (SSS). The coral record for ∼4400 yr ago shows ∼9% amplification of the annual cycle of δ18O, in good agreement with coupled ocean-atmosphere models showing higher summer rainfall (lower coral δ18O) and cooler winter SSTs (higher coral δ18O) in response to greater Northern Hemisphere insolation seasonality during the Middle Holocene. Mean SSTs in the South China Sea during the Mid-Holocene were within 0.5 °C of modern values, yet the mean δ18O for the fossil coral is ∼0.6‰ higher than that for the modern coral, suggesting that the δ18O of surface seawater was higher by at least ∼0.5‰, relative to modern values. The 18O-enrichment is likely to be driven by greater advection of moisture towards the Asian landmass, enhanced monsoon wind-induced evaporation and vertical mixing, and/or invigorated advection of saltier 18O-enriched Pacific water into the relatively fresh South China Sea. The 18O-enrichment of the northern South China Sea ∼4400 yr ago contributes to mounting evidence for recent freshening of the tropical Western Pacific. Today, winter SST and summer SSS variability in the South China Sea reflect the interannual influence of ENSO and the biennial variability inherent to monsoon precipitation. Spectral analysis of winter SSTs ∼4400 yr ago reveals a strong ENSO cycle at 6.7 y, which is significantly longer than the average 3.6 y cycle observed since 1970. The results suggest that the influence of ENSO on winter SSTs in the South China Sea was well established by ∼4400 yr ago. However, spectral analysis of summer SSS ∼4400 yr ago shows no significant ENSO cycle, suggesting that teleconnections between ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall were restricted. Taken together, the results indicate marked differences in ENSO-monsoon interactions during the winter and summer monsoon seasons in the past. The fossil coral δ18O record also shows that the amplitude of interannual SST and SSS variability was stronger ∼4400 yr ago, despite ENSO variability being significantly weaker in the Pacific region. Thus it appears that the strengthened Mid-Holocene monsoon was sensitive to forces, other than ENSO, that acted as alternative drivers of interannual monsoon variability. If this is the case, greater interannual climate variability could accompany the strengthening of the Asian monsoon predicted to occur during the 21st century as transient greenhouse warming preferentially warms Eurasia, even if ENSO perturbations remain relatively stable.

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yator, J. J.

2016-12-01

This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely to increase by between 8.56% and 21% by the year 2100. There exists a need for policies that safeguard agriculture against the adverse effects of climate change to alleviate food insecurity in Kenya. Therefore, it is important that climate change mitigation is given much more priority in policy planning and also implementation.

Tests of the disrupted behavioral rhythms hypothesis for accelerated summer weight gain: Intraindividual variability of children's sleep duration during the school year and summer break

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The school-summer paradigm offers an opportunity to explore school-summer differences in children's behavioral rhythms and their association with seasonal changes in BMI. In the absence of the demands of the school year, children's behavioral rhythms (e.g., sleep/wake patterns) may be more variable ...

Cold-season temperature in the Swiss Alps from AD 1100-1500; trends, intra-annual variability and forcing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Rixt; Kamenik, Christian; Grosjean, Martin

2010-05-01

To fully understand past climatic changes and their forcing factors, detailed reconstructions of past summer and winter temperatures are required. Winter temperature reconstructions are scarce, however, because most biological proxies are biased towards the growing season. This study presents a detailed reconstruction of winter temperatures based on Chrysophyte stomatocysts, silicious scales formed by so-called 'golden algae'. Previous studies (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005; Pla and Catalan, 2005) have demonstrated the sensitivity of these algae to cold-season temperatures. Chrysophyte stomatocyst analysis was carried out on varved sediments from Lake Silvaplana (1791 m a.s.l.) at annual to near-annual resolution for two periods; AD 1100-1500 and AD 1870-2004. For both periods the reference date 'date of spring mixing' (Smix) was reconstructed using a transfer function developed for the Austrian Alps (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005). In the Austrian Alps, Smix was primarily driven by air temperature in the cold season. The strength of stomatocysts as a proxy for winter temperature was tested by directly comparing reconstructed Smix with measured temperatures from nearby meteostation Sils Maria for the period AD 1870 - 2004. Correlation was highest (R = -0.6; p < 0.001) with mean October-April temperatures. The good agreement between reconstructed Smix and mean winter temperatures was interrupted only from AD 1925 - AD 1951, which was related to exceptionally high winter precipitation (thick snowpack) extending the ice-covered period. Strong lake eutrophication after AD 1950 only weakly affected the reconstruction of winter temperature. The winter temperature reconstruction (AD 1100-1500) shows strong interdecadal variability, superimposed on a cooling trend from around AD 1400 onwards. A direct comparison to summer temperature reconstructions based on biogenic silica and chironomid analysis from the same cores (Trachsel et al., in review; Larocque-Tobler et al., accepted manuscript) indicated strong fluctuations in intra-annual variability. A comparison to forcing factors shows that throughout the studied period, large tropical volcanic eruptions (Crowley, 2000) coincided with relatively warm winters in the study area. This is consistent with results from GCM experiments and observations of the limited number of eruptions during the much shorter instrumental period (Fischer et al., 2007). References: T. Crowley. Science 289, 270-277 (2000) E. Fischer et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L05707 (2007) C. Kamenik and R. Schmidt. Boreas 34, 477-489 (2005) I. Larocque-Tobler et al. Quat. Sci. Rev., accepted. S. Pla and J. Catalan. Clim. Dyn. 24, 263-278 (2005) M. Trachsel et al. Manuscript in review

Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhik, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Salunke, Kiran D.; Dhakate, Ashish R.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2016-05-01

The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere-ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further explains the possible reasons behind the realistic simulation of northward propagating BSISO in CFS T382, even though the model shows substantial biases in simulating mean state and other BSISO modes.

Negative effects of climate change on upland grassland productivity and carbon fluxes are not attenuated by nitrogen status.

PubMed

Eze, Samuel; Palmer, Sheila M; Chapman, Pippa J

2018-05-09

Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

2014-12-01

Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0°C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

Do Clouds Save the Great Barrier Reef? Satellite Imagery Elucidates the Cloud-SST Relationship at the Local Scale

PubMed Central

Leahy, Susannah M.; Kingsford, Michael J.; Steinberg, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Evidence of global climate change and rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is now well documented in the scientific literature. With corals already living close to their thermal maxima, increases in SSTs are of great concern for the survival of coral reefs. Cloud feedback processes may have the potential to constrain SSTs, serving to enforce an “ocean thermostat” and promoting the survival of coral reefs. In this study, it was hypothesized that cloud cover can affect summer SSTs in the tropics. Detailed direct and lagged relationships between cloud cover and SST across the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) shelf were investigated using data from satellite imagery and in situ temperature and light loggers during two relatively hot summers (2005 and 2006) and two relatively cool summers (2007 and 2008). Across all study summers and shelf positions, SSTs exhibited distinct drops during periods of high cloud cover, and conversely, SST increases during periods of low cloud cover, with a three-day temporal lag between a change in cloud cover and a subsequent change in SST. Cloud cover alone was responsible for up to 32.1% of the variation in SSTs three days later. The relationship was strongest in both El Niño (2005) and La Niña (2008) study summers and at the inner-shelf position in those summers. SST effects on subsequent cloud cover were weaker and more variable among study summers, with rising SSTs explaining up to 21.6% of the increase in cloud cover three days later. This work quantifies the often observed cloud cooling effect on coral reefs. It highlights the importance of incorporating local-scale processes into bleaching forecasting models, and encourages the use of remote sensing imagery to value-add to coral bleaching field studies and to more accurately predict risks to coral reefs. PMID:23894649

Influence of ozone and meteorological parameters on levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pehnec, Gordana; Jakovljević, Ivana; Šišović, Anica; Bešlić, Ivan; Vađić, Vladimira

2016-04-01

Concentrations of ten polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the PM10 particle fraction were measured together with ozone and meteorological parameters at an urban site (Zagreb, Croatia) over a one-year period. Data were subjected to regression analysis in order to determine the relationship between the measured pollutants and selected meteorological variables. All of the PAHs showed seasonal variations with high concentrations in winter and autumn and very low concentrations during summer and spring. All of the ten PAHs concentrations also correlated well with each other. A statistically significant negative correlation was found between the concentrations of PAHs and ozone concentrations and concentrations of PAHs and temperature, as well as a positive correlation between concentrations of PAHs and PM10 mass concentration and relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis showed that concentrations of PM10 and ozone, temperature, relative humidity and pressure accounted for 43-70% of PAHs variability. Concentrations of PM10 and temperature were significant variables for all of the measured PAH's concentrations in all seasons. Ozone concentrations were significant for only some of the PAHs, particularly 6-ring PAHs.

Influence of Western Tibetan Plateau Summer Snow Cover on East Asian Summer Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhibiao; Wu, Renguang; Chen, Shangfeng; Huang, Gang; Liu, Ge; Zhu, Lihua

2018-03-01

The influence of boreal winter-spring eastern Tibetan Plateau snow anomalies on the East Asian summer rainfall variability has been the focus of previous studies. The present study documents the impacts of boreal summer western and southern Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies on summer rainfall over East Asia. Analysis shows that more snow cover in the western and southern Tibetan Plateau induces anomalous cooling in the overlying atmospheric column. The induced atmospheric circulation changes are different corresponding to more snow cover in the western and southern Tibetan Plateau. The atmospheric circulation changes accompanying the western Plateau snow cover anomalies are more obvious over the midlatitude Asia, whereas those corresponding to the southern Plateau snow cover anomalies are more prominent over the tropics. As such, the western and southern Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies influence the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation through different pathways. Nevertheless, the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation anomalies induced by the western and southern Plateau snow cover anomalies tend to display similar distribution so that they are more pronounced when the western and southern Plateau snow cover anomalies work in coherence. Analysis indicates that the summer snow cover anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau may be related to late spring snow anomalies due to the persistence. The late spring snow anomalies are related to an obvious wave train originating from the western North Atlantic that may be partly associated with sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean.

High temperatures result in smaller nurseries which lower reproduction of pollinators and parasites in a brood site pollination mutualism.

PubMed

Krishnan, Anusha; Pramanik, Gautam Kumar; Revadi, Santosh V; Venkateswaran, Vignesh; Borges, Renee M

2014-01-01

In a nursery pollination mutualism, we asked whether environmental factors affected reproduction of mutualistic pollinators, non-mutualistic parasites and seed production via seasonal changes in plant traits such as inflorescence size and within-tree reproductive phenology. We examined seasonal variation in reproduction in Ficus racemosa community members that utilise enclosed inflorescences called syconia as nurseries. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall defined four seasons: winter; hot days, cold nights; summer and wet seasons. Syconium volumes were highest in winter and lowest in summer, and affected syconium contents positively across all seasons. Greater transpiration from the nurseries was possibly responsible for smaller syconia in summer. The 3-5°C increase in mean temperatures between the cooler seasons and summer reduced fig wasp reproduction and increased seed production nearly two-fold. Yet, seed and pollinator progeny production were never negatively related in any season confirming the mutualistic fig-pollinator association across seasons. Non-pollinator parasites affected seed production negatively in some seasons, but had a surprisingly positive relationship with pollinators in most seasons. While within-tree reproductive phenology did not vary across seasons, its effect on syconium inhabitants varied with season. In all seasons, within-tree reproductive asynchrony affected parasite reproduction negatively, whereas it had a positive effect on pollinator reproduction in winter and a negative effect in summer. Seasonally variable syconium volumes probably caused the differential effect of within-tree reproductive phenology on pollinator reproduction. Within-tree reproductive asynchrony itself was positively affected by intra-tree variation in syconium contents and volume, creating a unique feedback loop which varied across seasons. Therefore, nursery size affected fig wasp reproduction, seed production and within-tree reproductive phenology via the feedback cycle in this system. Climatic factors affecting plant reproductive traits cause biotic relationships between plants, mutualists and parasites to vary seasonally and must be accorded greater attention, especially in the context of climate change.

High Temperatures Result in Smaller Nurseries which Lower Reproduction of Pollinators and Parasites in a Brood Site Pollination Mutualism

PubMed Central

Krishnan, Anusha; Pramanik, Gautam Kumar; Revadi, Santosh V.; Venkateswaran, Vignesh; Borges, Renee M.

2014-01-01

In a nursery pollination mutualism, we asked whether environmental factors affected reproduction of mutualistic pollinators, non-mutualistic parasites and seed production via seasonal changes in plant traits such as inflorescence size and within-tree reproductive phenology. We examined seasonal variation in reproduction in Ficus racemosa community members that utilise enclosed inflorescences called syconia as nurseries. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall defined four seasons: winter; hot days, cold nights; summer and wet seasons. Syconium volumes were highest in winter and lowest in summer, and affected syconium contents positively across all seasons. Greater transpiration from the nurseries was possibly responsible for smaller syconia in summer. The 3–5°C increase in mean temperatures between the cooler seasons and summer reduced fig wasp reproduction and increased seed production nearly two-fold. Yet, seed and pollinator progeny production were never negatively related in any season confirming the mutualistic fig–pollinator association across seasons. Non-pollinator parasites affected seed production negatively in some seasons, but had a surprisingly positive relationship with pollinators in most seasons. While within-tree reproductive phenology did not vary across seasons, its effect on syconium inhabitants varied with season. In all seasons, within-tree reproductive asynchrony affected parasite reproduction negatively, whereas it had a positive effect on pollinator reproduction in winter and a negative effect in summer. Seasonally variable syconium volumes probably caused the differential effect of within-tree reproductive phenology on pollinator reproduction. Within-tree reproductive asynchrony itself was positively affected by intra-tree variation in syconium contents and volume, creating a unique feedback loop which varied across seasons. Therefore, nursery size affected fig wasp reproduction, seed production and within-tree reproductive phenology via the feedback cycle in this system. Climatic factors affecting plant reproductive traits cause biotic relationships between plants, mutualists and parasites to vary seasonally and must be accorded greater attention, especially in the context of climate change. PMID:25521512

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

PubMed

Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

2017-11-01

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to summer warming in the High Arctic. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Low-Frequency Variability of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass Identified from the China Coastal Waters and Adjacent Seas Reanalysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

the bottom of the central trough has a shape that resembles a saddle. In July, the cold water that has a temperature lower than 10∘C covers a third of...the YSCWM The YSCWM is a large water mass covering a third of the bottom layer at its largest extension. It has relatively stable properties with low...in the wind stress and heat fluxes. In summer, ENSO has the strongest influence on the YSCWM variability. ENSO may exert influence on the third mode

Seasonal variability of thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dongxiao; Liu, Yun; Qi, Yiquan; Shi, Ping

The 8-year (1991-1998) Pathfinder sea surface temperature data have been applied here to produce the objectively derived seasonality of the oceanic thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from 17°N to 25°N. Several fronts have been clearly distinguished, namely, Fujian and Guangdong Coastal Water, Pear River Estuary Coastal, Taiwan Bank, Kuroshio Intrusion, Hainan Island East Coast and Tonkin Gulf Coastal fronts. The frontal patterns in winter, spring and summer are quite similar, whereas individual fronts display different modes of seasonal variability due to different mechanisms favoring those fronts.

Summer heterothermy in Rafinesque's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus rafinesquii) roosting in tree cavities in bottomland hardwood forests.

PubMed

Johnson, Joseph S; Lacki, Michael J

2013-07-01

Many small mammals are heterothermic endotherms capable of maintaining an elevated core body temperature or reducing their thermoregulatory set point to enter a state of torpor. Torpor can confer substantial energy savings, but also incurs ecological costs, such as hindering allocation of energy towards reproduction. We placed temperature-sensitive radio transmitters on 44 adult Rafinesque's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus rafinesquii) and deployed microclimate dataloggers inside 34 day roosts to compare the use of torpor by different sex and reproductive classes of bats during the summer. We collected 324 bat-days of skin-temperature data from 36 females and 4 males. Reproductive females employed fewer torpor bouts per day than non-reproductive females and males (P < 0.0001), and pregnant and lactating females had higher average (P < 0.0001) and minimum (P < 0.0001) skin temperatures than non-reproductive females. Pregnant females spent less time torpid (P < 0.0001) than non-reproductive females, but lactating females used relatively deep, long torpor bouts. Microclimates varied inside tree species with different configurations of entrances to the roost cavity (P < 0.0001). Bats spent more time torpid when roosting in water tupelo (Nyssa aquatica) trees possessing only a basal entrance to the cavity (P = 0.001). Of the tree species used as roosts, water tupelo cavities exhibited the least variable daytime and nighttime temperatures. These data demonstrate that use of summer torpor is not uniform among sex and reproductive classes in Rafinesque's big-eared bat, and variation in microclimate among tree roosts due to species and structural characteristics facilitates the use of different thermoregulatory strategies in these bats.

Use of BasinTemp to model summer stream temperatures in the south fork of Ten Mile River, CA

Treesearch

Rafael Real de Asua; Ethan Bell; Bruce Orr; Peter Baker; Kevin Faucher

2012-01-01

We used BasinTemp to predict summer stream temperatures in South Fork Ten Mile River (SFTMR), Mendocino County. BasinTemp is a temperature model that attempts to quantify the basin-wide effects of high summer stream temperatures in basins where the data inputs are scarce. It assumes that direct solar radiation is the chief...

Decadal variability in coastal phytoplankton community composition in a changing West Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schofield, Oscar; Saba, Grace; Coleman, Kaycee; Carvalho, Filipa; Couto, Nicole; Ducklow, Hugh; Finkel, Zoe; Irwin, Andrew; Kahl, Alex; Miles, Travis; Montes-Hugo, Martin; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Waite, Nicole

2017-06-01

The coastal waters of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are associated with large phytoplankton blooms dominated by large (>20 μm) diatoms however, nanoplankton (<20 μm) are also an important component of the food web. The dominant nanoflagellates in the WAP are cryptomonad algae. Using a twenty-year time series collected by the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program at the United States Palmer Research Station, we assessed long-term patterns and stability in the coastal phytoplankton communities in the WAP. There was significant interannual variability in the integrated water column chlorophyll a (chl-a) concentrations, which varied by a factor of 5 over the 20-year time series. There has been a significant positive increase in the seasonally integrated concentration of chl-a over the time series. The dominant phytoplankton were diatoms, with cryptophytes the second most abundant. Mixed flagellates also constituted a significant fraction of the chl-a but showed less interannual variability than diatoms and cryophytes. Peak phytoplankton biomass was observed in summer months, when monthly averaged wind speed was lower than in the fall and autumn. Cryptophytes were most abundant during the summer months (December-January) after the seasonal retreat of sea ice. While diatoms were observed over the full range of observed salinities 32-34.5) as well as over the full range of in situ temperatures (-1.5 to 2.5 °C), the cryptophyte populations were observed in locations with lower salinity 32.5-33.75) and colder water (-1 to 1 °C). Environmental factors that favored a shallower seasonal mixed layer resulted in larger diatom blooms compared to the other phytoplankton taxa. During summer with lower phytoplankton biomass, a larger proportion of the chlorophyll a was associated with cryptophytes. These results demonstrate that continued temperature changes along the West Antarctic Peninsula will result in changes in phytoplankton concentration and community composition, which has significant ramifications for the food web.

Seasonal and spatial variations in fish and macrocrustacean assemblage structure in Mad Island Marsh estuary, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akin, S.; Winemiller, K. O.; Gelwick, F. P.

2003-05-01

Fish and macrocrustacean assemblage structure was analyzed along an estuarine gradient at Mad Island Marsh (MIM), Matagorda Bay, TX, during March 1998-August 1999. Eight estuarine-dependent fish species accounted for 94% of the individual fishes collected, and three species accounted for 96% of macrocrustacean abundance. Consistent with evidence from other Gulf of Mexico estuarine studies, species richness and abundance were highest during late spring and summer, and lowest during winter and early spring. Sites near the bay supported the most individuals and species. Associations between fish abundance and environmental variables were examined with canonical correspondence analysis. The dominant gradient was associated with water depth and distance from the bay. The secondary gradient reflected seasonal variation and was associated with temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and vegetation cover. At the scales examined, estuarine biota responded to seasonal variation more than spatial variation. Estuarine-dependent species dominated the fauna and were common throughout the open waters of the shallow lake during winter-early spring when water temperature and salinity were low and dissolved oxygen high. During summer-early fall, sub-optimal environmental conditions (high temperature, low DO) in upper reaches accounted for strong spatial variation in assemblage composition. Small estuarine-resident fishes and the blue crab ( Callinectes sapidus) were common in warm, shallow, vegetated inland sites during summer-fall. Estuarine-dependent species were common at deeper, more saline locations near the bay during this period. During summer, freshwater species, such as gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum) and gars ( Lepisosteus spp.), were positively associated with water depth and proximity to the bay. The distribution and abundance of fishes in MIM appear to result from the combined effects of endogenous, seasonal patterns of reproduction and migration operating on large spatial scales, and species-specific response to local environmental variation.

Dynamical and thermodynamical coupling between the North Atlantic subtropical high and the marine boundary layer clouds in boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wei; Li, Wenhong; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Huang, Lei; Liu, W. Timothy

2018-04-01

This study investigates dynamical and thermodynamical coupling between the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, and the local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Atlantic in boreal summer for 1984-2009 using NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 dataset, various cloud data, and the Hadley Centre sea surface temperature. On interannual timescales, the summer mean subtropical MBL clouds to the southeast of the NASH is actively coupled with the NASH and local SSTs: a stronger (weaker) NASH is often accompanied with an increase (a decrease) of MBL clouds and abnormally cooler (warmer) SSTs along the southeast flank of the NASH. To understand the physical processes between the NASH and the MBL clouds, the authors conduct a data diagnostic analysis and implement a numerical modeling investigation using an idealized anomalous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Results suggest that significant northeasterly anomalies in the southeast flank of the NASH associated with an intensified NASH tend to induce stronger cold advection and coastal upwelling in the MBL cloud region, reducing the boundary surface temperature. Meanwhile, warm advection associated with the easterly anomalies from the African continent leads to warming over the MBL cloud region at 700 hPa. Such warming and the surface cooling increase the atmospheric static stability, favoring growth of the MBL clouds. The anomalous diabatic cooling associated with the growth of the MBL clouds dynamically excites an anomalous anticyclone to its north and contributes to strengthening of the NASH circulation in its southeast flank. The dynamical and thermodynamical couplings and their associated variations in the NASH, MBL clouds, and SSTs constitute an important aspect of the summer climate variability over the North Atlantic.

Effects of treated industrial wastewaters and temperatures on growth and enzymatic activities of duckweed (Lemna minor L.).

PubMed

Basiglini, E; Pintore, M; Forni, C

2018-05-30

The efficacy of the removal of contaminants from wastewater depends on physico-chemical properties of pollutants and the efficiency of treatment plant. Sometimes, low amounts of toxic compounds can be still present in the treated sewage. In this work we considered the effects of contaminant residues in treated wastewaters and of temperatures on Lemna minor L. Treated effluent waters were collected, analyzed and used as duckweed growth medium. In order to better understand the effects of micropollutants and seasonal variation, the plants were grown under ambient conditions for seven days in summer and winter. Relative growth rate, pigments and phenolic compounds concentrations were determined, as well as the activities of catalase (CAT), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), guaiacol peroxidase (G-POD) and polyphenol oxidase (PPO). The pollutant concentrations varied in the two seasons, depending on the industrial and municipal activities and efficiency of treatments. Treated waters contained heavy metals, nitrogenous and phosphorus compounds, surfactants and hydrocarbons. Compared to the control, duckweed growth of treated plants decreased by 25% in summer, while in the winter due to the lower temperatures and the presence of pollutants was completely impeded. The amounts of photosynthetic pigments of treated plants were not significantly affected in the summer, while they were higher than the control in the winter when the effluent had a high nitrogen amount. High CAT activity was registered in both seasons. Treated plants had significantly lower APX activity in the summer (53%) and winter (59%) respect to the controls. The observed inhibition of the peroxidase activities in the exposed plants, confirms the controversy existing in the literature about the variability of enzymatic response in stress condition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mediterranean summer climate and the monsoon regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, M.; Crisci, A.; Dalu, G. A.; Maracchi, G.; Meneguzzo, F.; Pasqui, M.

2003-04-01

The Authors examine the general features of climate of the Mediterranean Region, i.e. its variability and trends in the last 40 years, and the teleconnections between Mediterranean climate and the global climate, using zonal and global indices. In particular they focus the attention on the analysis of the summer Mediterranean climate, and its variability and connection with the summer monsoon regimes. Several subregions can be distinguished in the Mediterranean for each season, and the occurrence of Mediterranean Oscillation is evident between West and East sub-basins. Precipitation and SLP fields in the Eastern basin are shown to be correlated with Mediterranean Oscillation. A total decrease of precipitation has been detected in last few years, although there are some very intense. During winter a fundamental role is played by NAO index, which, influencing the storm tracks coming from the Atlantic and passing over the Mediterranean and North Europe, it has a major role in the precipitation patterns over the Region. Moreover, temperature analysis over the last 40 years in the Mediterranean shows a distinct warming, in agreement with the pattern over North Emisphere and NAO index fluctuations. During summer the Hadley cell extend further northwards, influencing the Mediterranean climate, and there is evidence of a possible teleconnection with the Asian Monsoon, and the Sahel precipitation (and related Hadley cell): the SLP field in the Eastern Mediterranean is inversely correlated with those two precipitation indices, while it is positively correlated with the pressure in the Western Mediterranean. Leading mechanisms of interaction between Mediterranean summer rainfall and SLP patterns and precipitation indices associated with monsoon regimes are stressed out and investigated, as well as the influence of the position and strength of the Hadley cell, by means of both statistical and dynamical analytical arguments. A modeling study has been carried out in order to study the variations and the anomalies in the recent Mediterranean summer precipitation patterns, consisting of two main phases. In the first phase, a numerical regional atmospheric model has been used to downscale the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a good agreement between model simulations and observations, proving the capability of the modeling tool. During the second phase, following and extending recent experiences the numerical model has been used to identify the features and extent of the impacts of the location and strength of the West Africa summer monsoon - therefore the regional Hadley cell - to the Mediterranean climate, by selectively modifying the main forcing of that tropical circulation, i.e. the Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures.

Habitat selection and quality for multiple cohorts of young-of-the-year bluefish ( Pomatomus saltatrix): Comparisons between estuarine and ocean beaches in southern New Jersey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, David L.; Nichols, Ryan S.; Able, Kenneth W.

2007-07-01

In this study, seasonal and annual variability in the use of estuarine and ocean beaches by young-of-the-year bluefish, Pomatomus saltatrix, was evaluated by indices of abundance in coastal areas of southern New Jersey (1998-2000). Biological and physical factors measured at specific sites were correlated with bluefish abundance to determine the mechanisms underlying habitat selection. In addition, integrative and discrete indicators of bluefish growth were used to examine spatio-temporal dynamics in habitat quality and its effect on habitat selection by multiple cohorts of bluefish. Intra-annual recruitment to coastal areas of southern New Jersey was episodic, and resulted from the ingress of spring-spawned bluefish (hatch-date ˜April) to estuarine beaches in late May to early June, followed by the recruitment of summer-spawned fish (hatch-date ˜early July) to ocean beaches from July to October. Bluefish utilized estuarine and ocean beaches in a facultative manner that was responsive to dynamics in prey composition and temperature conditions. The recruitment and residency of bluefish in the estuary (1998-1999) and ocean beaches (1998), for example, was coincidental with the presence of the Atlantic silverside Menidia menidia and bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli, the principal prey species for bluefish occupying these respective habitat-types. Bluefish abundance in the estuary (2000) and ocean beaches (1999-2000) was also correlated with water temperature, with the greatest catches of juveniles coinciding with their optimal growth temperature (24 °C). Bluefish growth, estimated as the slope of age-length relationships and daily specific growth rates, equaled 1.27-2.63 mm fork length (FL) d -1 and 3.8-8.7% body length increase d -1, respectively. The growth of sagittal otoliths was also used as a proxy for changes in bluefish size during and shortly before their time of capture. Accordingly, otolith growth rates of summer-spawned bluefish were greater at ocean beaches relative to the estuary and were explained by the more suitable temperature conditions found at ocean beaches during the mid- to late summer. Notwithstanding the fast growth of oceanic summer-spawned bluefish, individuals spawned in the spring were still larger in absolute body size at the end of the summer growing season (˜240 and 50-200 mm FL for spring- and summer-spawned bluefish, respectively). The size discrepancy between spring- and summer-spawned bluefish at the onset of autumn migrations and during overwintering periods may account for the differential recruitment success of the respective cohorts.

Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobson, L.; Jakobson, E.

2017-12-01

The observed enhanced warming of the Arctic, referred to as the AA, is expected to be related to further changes that impact mid-latitudes and the rest of the world. Our aim is to clarify how the climatic parameters in the Baltic Sea and Arctic regions are associated. Knowledge of such connections helps to define regions in the Arctic that could be with higher extent associated with the Baltic Sea region climate change. We used monthly mean reanalysis data from NCEP-CFSR and ERA-Interim. The strongest teleconnections between the same parameter (temperature, SLP, specific humidity, wind speed) at the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic are found in winter, but they are clearly affected by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. After removal of the AO index variability, correlations in winter were everywhere below ±0.5, while in other seasons there remained regions with strong (|R|>0.5, p<0.002) correlations. Strong correlations are also present between different climate variables at the Baltic Sea region and different regions of the Arctic. Temperature from 1000 to 500 hPa level at the Baltic Sea region have a strong negative correlation with the Greenland sector (the region between 20 - 80W and 55 - 80N) during all seasons except summer. The positive temperature anomaly of mild winter at the Greenland sector shifts towards east during the next seasons, reaching to Scandinavia/Baltic Sea region in summer. The Greenland sector is the region which gives the most significant correlations with the climatic parameters (temperature, wind speed, specific humidity, SLP) of the Baltic Sea region. These relationships can be explained by the AO index variability only in winter. In other seasons there has to be other influencing factors. The results of this study are valuable for selecting regions in the Arctic that have statistically the largest effect on climate in the Baltic Sea region.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

Examination of snowmelt over Western Himalayas using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2016-07-01

Snowmelt variability in the Western Himalayas has been examined using remotely sensed snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered area (SCA) datasets. It is seen that climatological snowfall and snowmelt amount varies in the Himalayan region from west to east and from month to month. Maximum snowmelt occurs at the elevation zone between 4500 and 5000 m. As the spring and summer approach and snowmelt begins, a large amount of snow melts in May. Strength and weaknesses of temperature-based snowmelt models have been analyzed for this region by computing the snowmelt factor or the degree-day factor (DDF). It is seen that average DDF in the Himalayas is more in April and less in July. During spring and summer months, melting rate is higher in the areas that have height above 2500 m. The region that lies between 4500 and 5000 m elevation zones contributes toward more snowmelt with higher melting rate. Snowmelt models have been developed to estimate interannual variations of monthly snowmelt amount using the DDF, observed SWE, and surface air temperature from reanalysis datasets. In order to further improve the estimate snowmelt, regression between observed and modeled snowmelt has been carried out and revised DDF values have been computed. It is found that both the models do not capture the interannual variability of snowmelt in April. The skill of the model is moderate in May and June, but the skill is relatively better in July. In order to explain this skill, interannual variability (IAV) of surface air temperature has been examined. Compared to July, in April, the IAV of temperature is large indicating that a climatological value of DDF is not sufficient to explain the snowmelt rate in April. Snow area and snow amount depletion curves over Himalayas indicate that in a small area at high altitude, snow is still observed with large SWE whereas over most of the region, all the snow has melted.

Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia.

PubMed

Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

2005-03-01

We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However, distinguishing between impacts of direct and indirect relationships is complicated, as they are interlinked.

Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

2005-03-01

We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However, distinguishing between impacts of direct and indirect relationships is complicated, as they are interlinked.

Incidence of Temperature Inversion and their Impact on Air Quality: A Case Study of Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V. P.

2016-12-01

In troposphere, an increase in temperature with the altitude produces stable atmosphere which prohibits the air pollutants dispersion. This study investigates the phenomenon of temperature inversion (TI), Lapse rate (LR) and its effects on air quality in respect of Ozone (O3), CO2, CO & PM2.5 over a megacity- Delhi (Study Time Period: 2006-2012). Because of huge population, urban sprawl and orographic location, this study can be very helpful for Delhi and cities like Delhi. Radiosonde observations for temperature was used for TI calculations over the region. Results indicate that TI generally occurs at 975-850 hPa. Also, the maximum number of inversions occur during winter months (December and January) especially at night time and early mornings. Furthermore, during winter months, the incidence of inversion is highest at both 00UTC and 12UTC while it is least during the monsoon months (July and August) at 00UTC. The LR is maximum in terms of magnitude (i.e. highly negative) during the summer months (May & June) every year indicating the strong heating effects that takes place during the day time in summer and also because the sensible heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere is significant even at 12UTC (i.e. around 5.30 P.M.) The bivariate correlation analysis for air quality variables reveals negative relationship of all air quality variables except O3 with rainfall. A positive relationship of LR with all air quality variables, except O3, was observed indicating the increase in pollutants' concentrations with an increase in LR. The correlation coefficient between LR and air pollutants CO, NO, NO2, PM2.5 were found to be 0.463, 0.346, 0.249 and 0.673 respectively. A negative correlation was found between wind speed and most of the air pollutants. Also, significantly, O3 had been the only air pollutant having a negative relationship with LR (both at 00UTC &12UTC).

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2013-01-01

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

Economic status and temperature-related mortality in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Youn-Hee; Bell, Michelle L.; Kan, Haidong; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

2015-10-01

In developed countries, low latitude and high temperature are positively associated with the population's ability to adapt to heat. However, few studies have examined the effect of economic status on the relationship between long-term exposure to high temperature and health. We compared heterogeneous temperature-related mortality effects relative to the average summer temperature in high-socioeconomic-status (SES) cities to temperature-related effects in low-SES cities. In the first stage of the research, we conducted a linear regression analysis to quantify the mortality effects of high temperature (at or above the 95th percentile) in 32 cities in Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea. In the second stage, we used a meta-regression to examine the association between mortality risk with average summer temperature and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In cities with a low GDP per capita (less than 20,000 USD), the effects of temperature were detrimental to the population if the long-term average summer temperature was high. In contrast, in cities with a high GDP per capita, temperature-related mortality risk was not significantly related to average summer temperature. The relationship between long-term average summer temperature and the short-term effects of high temperatures differed based on the city-level economic status.

Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

2018-05-01

This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

Modeling tree growth and stable isotope ratios of white spruce in western Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, Etienne; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Field, Robert; Oelkers, Rose; D'Arrigo, Rosanne

2017-04-01

Summer temperatures are assumed to exert a dominant control on physiological processes driving forest productivity in interior Alaska. However, despite the recent warming of the last few decades, numerous lines of evidence indicate that the enhancing effect of summer temperatures on high latitude forest populations has been weakening. First, satellite-derived indices of photosynthetic activity, such as the Normalized-Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982-2005), show overall declines in productivity in the interior boreal forests. Second, some white spruce tree ring series strongly diverge from summer temperatures during the second half of the 20th century, indicating a persistent loss of temperature sensitivity of tree ring proxies. Thus, the physiological response of treeline forests to ongoing climate change cannot be accurately predicted, especially from correlation analysis. Here, we make use of a process-based dendroecological model (MAIDENiso) to elucidate the complex linkages between global warming and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] with the response of treeline white spruce stands in interior Alaska (Seward). In order to fully capture the array of processes controlling tree growth in the area, multiple physiological indicators of white spruce productivity are used as target variables: NDVI images, ring widths (RW), maximum density (MXD) and newly measured carbon and oxygen stable isotope ratios from ring cellulose. Based on these data, we highlight the processes and mechanisms responsible for the apparent loss of sensitivity of white spruce trees to recent climate warming and [CO2] increase in order to elucidate the sensitivity and vulnerability of these trees to climate change.

Reproductive patterns in demersal crustaceans from the upper boundary of the OMZ off north-central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallardo, María de los Ángeles; González López, Andrés E.; Ramos, Marcel; Mujica, Armando; Muñoz, Praxedes; Sellanes, Javier; Yannicelli, Beatriz

2017-06-01

Pleuroncodes monodon (Crustacea: Munididae) supports one of the main trawling fisheries over the continental shelf off Chile between 25°S and 37°S within the upper boundary of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Although the reproductive cycle of P. monodon has been described, the relationship between this key biological process and the variability of the OMZ has not been comprehensibly addressed neither for P. monodon nor for other OMZ resident species. In this study a set of 14 quasi-monthly oceanographic cruises carried out between June 2010 and November 2011 were conducted over the continental shelf off Coquimbo (30°S) to investigate the temporal variability of: i) dissolved oxygen concentration, temperature and chlorophyll-a at relevant depths ii) the presence and proportion of occurrence of P. monodon ovigerous females and juveniles from benthic trawls; iii) the presence of different stage larvae in the plankton, and iv) similar biological data for other species from the OMZ and shallower depths crustaceans. During summer months oxygen levels and bottom temperature were lower than in winter, while chlorophyll-a concentration was maximum in summer coinciding with an active (but not maximum) upwelling season. P. monodon maximum egg carrying occurred in winter during periods of increased oxygenation. Egg carrying females were never found at depths where oxygen concentration was below 0.5 ml L-1, while over 50% of the autumn and spring cohorts of juveniles occurred at oxygen concentrations below that level. The depth range occupied by ovigerous females was more restricted than the rest of the population and their depth of occurrence followed the variability of the upper OMZ. The larval release period of OMZ resident species extends over late winter and spring, and its main peak precedes that of coastal species (spring) and the spring-summer chlorophyll-a maximum. We propose that for OMZ resident species, brood carrying during warmer and more oxygenated conditions in the adult benthic environment, might favor embryonic development, so OMZ seasonal variability could be acting as a selective pressure to synchronize reproductive periods.

PDO modulation of the ENSO impact on the summer South Asian high

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng; Feng, Juan

2018-02-01

This study investigates modulation effects of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the impact of boreal winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Asian high (SAH) variability in the following summer. In the El Niño together with positive PDO (EL/+PDO) or the La Niña together with negative PDO (LA/-PDO) years, boreal winter ENSO can influence the following summer SAH activity significantly. The SAH tends to be obviously strengthened (weakened) and located further south (north) during EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). However, in the El Niño together with negative PDO (EL/-PDO) or the La Niña together with positive PDO (LA/+PDO) years, the influence of ENSO on the SAH tends to be weak. The strength and location of SAH are close to those in the climatology of 1950-2011 during the EL/-PDO or the LA/+PDO. Further analysis indicates that the PDO could exert pronounced influence on the ENSO-SAH connection via modulating the anomalous Walker circulation and charge effect over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). During the EL/+PDO or LA/-PDO, the anomalous Walker circulation associated with El Niño or La Niña is stronger and lasts for a longer time than those during the EL/-PDO or LA/+PDO. This leads to stronger descending (ascending) motion over the Maritime Continent and easterly (westerly) wind anomalies over the eastern Indian Ocean in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO), which further exert larger effects on the surface heat fluxes and subsurface ocean dynamical heating process over the Indian Ocean. As such, the induced warm (cold) sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian Ocean are more significant and larger in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). These larger sea surface temperature anomalies over the TIO could exert a more significant influence on the tropospheric temperature via moisture adjustment, which subsequently results in stronger SAH variability in the EL/+PDO or the LA/-PDO.

Summer season variability of the north residual cap of Mars as observed by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS-TES)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calvin, W.M.; Titus, T.N.

2008-01-01

Previous observations have noted the change in albedo in a number of North Pole bright outliers and in the distribution of bright ice deposits between Mariner 9, Viking, and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data sets. Changes over the summer season as well as between regions at the same season (Ls) in different years have been observed. We used the bolometric albedo and brightness temperature channels of the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) on the MGS spacecraft to monitor north polar residual ice cap variations between Mars years and within the summer season for three northern Martian summers between July 1999 and April 2003. Large-scale brightness variations are observed in four general areas: (1) the patchy outlying frost deposits from 90 to 270??E, 75 to 80??N; (2) the large "tail" below the Chasma Boreale and its associated plateau from 315 to 45??E, 80 to 85??N, that we call the "Boreale Tongue" and in Hyperboreae Undae; (3) the troughed terrain in the region from 0 to 120??E longitude (the lower right on a polar stereographic projection) we have called "Shackleton's Grooves" and (4) the unit mapped as residual ice in Olympia Planitia. We also note two areas which seem to persist as cool and bright throughout the summer and between Mars years. One is at the "source" of Chasma Boreale (???15??E, 85??N) dubbed "McMurdo", and the "Cool and Bright Anomaly (CABA)" noted by Kieffer and Titus 2001. TES Mapping of Mars' north seasonal cap. Icarus 154, 162-180] at ???330??E, 87??N called here "Vostok". Overall defrosting occurs early in the summer as the temperatures rise and then after the peak temperatures are reached (Ls???110) higher elevations and outlier bright deposits cold trap and re-accumulate new frost. Persistent bright areas are associated with either higher elevations or higher background albedos suggesting complex feedback mechanisms including cold-trapping of frost due to albedo and elevation effects, as well as influence of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

PubMed

Morley, Simon A; Martin, Stephanie M; Day, Robert W; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A S; Peck, Lloyd S

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions.

Thermal Reaction Norms and the Scale of Temperature Variation: Latitudinal Vulnerability of Intertidal Nacellid Limpets to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Morley, Simon A.; Martin, Stephanie M.; Day, Robert W.; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A. S.; Peck, Lloyd S.

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of “duration tenacity”, which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (Topt) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CTmax and Topt over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions. PMID:23285194

Temperature Dependence of Factors Controlling Isoprene Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Damon, Megan R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.

2009-01-01

We investigated the relationship of variability in the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns measured by the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to isoprene emissions in the southeastern United States for 2005-2007. The data show that the inferred, regional-average isoprene emissions varied by about 22% during summer and are well correlated with temperature, which is known to influence emissions. Part of the correlation with temperature is likely associated with other causal factors that are temperature-dependent. We show that the variations in HCHO are convolved with the temperature dependence of surface ozone, which influences isoprene emissions, and the dependence of the HCHO column to mixed layer height as OMI's sensitivity to HCHO increases with altitude. Furthermore, we show that while there is an association of drought with the variation in HCHO, drought in the southeastern U.S. is convolved with temperature.

Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.

Sensitivity of New England Stream Temperatures to Air Temperature and Precipitation Under Projected Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, T.; Samal, N. R.; Wollheim, W. M.; Stewart, R. J.; Zuidema, S.; Prousevitch, A.; Glidden, S.

2015-12-01

The thermal response of streams and rivers to changing climate will influence aquatic habitat. This study examines the impact that changing climate has on stream temperatures in the Merrimack River, NH/MA USA using the Framework for Aquatic Modeling in the Earth System (FrAMES), a spatially distributed river network model driven by air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar radiation. Streamflow and water temperatures are simulated at a 45-second (latitude x longitude) river grid resolution for 135 years under historical and projected climate variability. Contemporary streamflow (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.77) and river temperatures (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.89) matched at downstream USGS gauge data well. A suite of model runs were made in combination with uniformly increased daily summer air temperatures by 2oC, 4 oC and 6 oC as well as adjusted precipitation by -40%, -30%, -20%, -10% and +10% as a sensitivity analysis to explore a broad range of potential future climates. We analyzed the summer stream temperatures and the percent of river length unsuitable for cold to warm water fish habitats. Impacts are greatest in large rivers due to the accumulation of river temperature warming throughout the entire river network. Cold water fish (i.e. brook trout) are most strongly affected while, warm water fish (i.e. largemouth bass) aren't expected to be impacted. The changes in stream temperatures under various potential climate scenarios will provide a better understanding of the specific impact that air temperature and precipitation have on aquatic thermal regimes and habitat.

Lack of cool, not warm, extremes distinguishes late 20th Century climate in 979-year Tasmanian summer temperature reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Evans, R.; Francey, R.; Buckley, B. M.; Palmer, J. G.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

2018-03-01

Very few annually resolved millennial-length temperature reconstructions exist for the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present four 979-year reconstructions for southeastern Australia for the austral summer months of December-February. Two of the reconstructions are based on the Australian Water Availability Project dataset and two on the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset. For each climate data set, one reconstruction is based solely on Lagarostrobos franklinii (restricted reconstructions) while the other is based on multiple Tasmanian conifer species (unrestricted reconstructions). Each reconstruction calibrates ~50-60% of the variance in the temperature datasets depending on the number of tree-ring records available for the reconstruction. We found little difference in the temporal variability of the reconstructions, although extremes are amplified in the restricted reconstructions relative to the unrestricted reconstructions. The reconstructions highlight the occurrence of numerous individual years, especially in the 15th-17th Centuries, for which temperatures were comparable with those of the late 20th Century. The 1950-1999 period, however, stands out as the warmest 50-year period on average for the past 979 years, with a sustained shift away from relatively low mean temperatures, the length of which is unique in the 979-year record. The reconstructions are strongly and positively related to temperatures across the southeast of the Australian continent, negatively related to temperatures in the north and northeast of the continent, and uncorrelated with temperatures in the west. The lack of a strong relationship with temperatures across the continent highlights the necessity of a sub-regional focus for Australasian temperature reconstructions.

Trend shifts in satellite-derived vegetation growth in Central Eurasia, 1982-2013.

PubMed

Xu, Hao-Jie; Wang, Xin-Ping; Yang, Tai-Bao

2017-02-01

Central Eurasian vegetation is critical for the regional ecological security and the global carbon cycle. However, climatic impacts on vegetation growth in Central Eurasia are uncertain. The reason for this uncertainty lies in the fact that the response of vegetation to climate change showed nonlinearity, seasonality and differences among plant functional types. Based on remotely sensed vegetation index and in-situ meteorological data for the years 1982-2013, in conjunction with the latest land cover type product, we analyzed how vegetation growth trend varied across different seasons and evaluated vegetation response to climate variables at regional, biome and pixel scales. We found a persistent increase in the growing season NDVI over Central Eurasia during 1982-1994, whereas this greening trend has stalled since the mid-1990s in response to increased water deficit. The stalled trend in the growing season NDVI was largely attributed by summer and autumn NDVI changes. Enhanced spring vegetation growth after 2002 was caused by rapid spring warming. The response of vegetation to climatic factors varied in different seasons. Precipitation was the main climate driver for the growing season and summer vegetation growth. Changes in temperature and precipitation during winter and spring controlled the spring vegetation growth. Autumn vegetation growth was mainly dependent on the vegetation growth in summer. We found diverse responses of different vegetation types to climate drivers in Central Eurasia. Forests were more responsive to temperature than to precipitation. Grassland and desert vegetation responded more strongly to precipitation than to temperature in summer but more strongly to temperature than to precipitation in spring. In addition, the growth of desert vegetation was more dependent on winter precipitation than that of grasslands. This study has important implications for improving the performance of terrestrial ecosystem models to predict future vegetation response to climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulter, B.; Pederson, N.; Liu, H.; Zhu, Z.; D'Arrigo, R.; Ciais, P.; Davi, N.; Frank, D. C.; Leland, C.; Myneni, R.; Piao, S.; Wang, T.

2012-12-01

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate and their response to climate change will depend on interactions between temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. For example, interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This presentation evaluates recent trends in productivity and seasonality of forests located in Inner Asia (Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Long-term trends from satellite observations of FPAR between 1982-2010 show a greening of 21% of the region in spring (March, April May), but with 10% of the area 'browning' during summertime (June, July, August), the results of which are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and eventual increase in forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover.

Not Just the 8.2 event: Dynamic Early Holocene Climate in Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Briner, J. P.; Miller, G. H.; Francis, D. R.

2006-12-01

Temperature reconstructions from a lake in the eastern Canadian Arctic indicate that peak warmth in the early Holocene was interrupted by two abrupt, short-lived temperature reversals at ~9.l and ~8.5 ka. Summer temperatures at Lake CF8, Baffin Island (~500 km west of Greenland) are inferred from subfossil midge (Chironomidae) assemblages. Our results indicate that the site, like others on Baffin Island, experienced exceptionally warm summers (almost 5°C warmer than present) through much of the early Holocene, presumably in response to enhanced summer insolation. After 1000 years of very warm, stable climate, warmth was interrupted by two discrete cold reversals at ~9.1 and ~8.5 ka, during which multiple cold-stenothermous midge taxa appeared in the lake and summer temperatures dropped more than 3°C. These two clearly-defined reversals, well beyond the range of background variability, were of similar amplitude and duration, and were separated by several centuries of near-peak warmth. The only Holocene events of comparable amplitude at this site are the rapid onset of Holocene warmth, and the more gradual Neoglacial cooling after 8 ka. Abrupt cooling events over the Baffin region are consistent with model simulations of the impacts of freshwater outbursts into the Labrador Sea, such as the Lake Agassiz outburst flood that occurred ~8.4 ka. That there are two discrete events recorded at this site indicates that the "8.2 event" was not uniquely significant in this region; rather, the period between approximately ~9.2 and 8 ka was characterized by repeated climate fluctuations forced by multiple outburst floods or other mechanisms. Thus global correlations among paleoclimate records need not assume that climate perturbations during this time period necessarily correlate with the draining of Lake Agassiz or the 8.2 ka cooling in central Greenland.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

NDVI anomalies associated with the European drought and heat wave of 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevan, Suzanne; Los, Sietse; North, Peter

2013-04-01

The European drought and heat wave of 2003 is commonly used as an example of extreme summer climate conditions that are likely to become more common towards the end of the 21st century, under predicted climate change scenarios. The extreme conditions are known to have had an impact on biomass primary productivity as reflected in remotely sensed vegetation indices and fAPAR, flux-tower measurements, and the results from a variety of modelling approaches. Early remote sensing analyses were based on relatively short time series of data, 4 or 5 years only. We are now able to make use of 12 years of MODIS observations to highlight the statistical significance of the widespread and persistent anomalies in vegetation greenness in 2003 compared with other summers so far this century. Anomalies in excess of 2 standard deviations initially occur at the start of June in central and eastern France. By the end of July they are common also over Germany, by mid August have spread to the French border with Spain, and by the end of August are common over the north-western corner of France, England and eastern Scotland. Using the One-Degree Daily resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation data and European Re-Analysis Interim 2 m air temperatures we are able to show where and whether either precipitation or temperature has the greatest impact on summer vegetation greenness. With the exception of mountainous regions such as the Alps and northern and western parts of the United Kingdom, summer NDVI anomalies are highly correlated with precipitation anomalies of the preceding month. The picture for temperature is more geographically variable with summer NDVI anomalies in southern France, Italy and central England and north-eastern Scotland being negatively correlated with temperature, and northern and western coasts of France and Germany being positively correlated with temperature. In addition, we analyse the anomalies in conjunction with vegetation height from ICESat GLAS measurements, and Global Land Cover Facility classifications. Attempts have been made to fit linear trends to global biomass production since 2000, following reports of an increasing trend during the 1990s. It is clear that events as significant as the 2003 European drought will complicate attempts to identify long-term changes in biomass and carbon uptake.

Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2018-05-01

A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

Occurrence of human respiratory syncytial virus in summer in Japan.

PubMed

Shobugawa, Y; Takeuchi, T; Hibino, A; Hassan, M R; Yagami, R; Kondo, H; Odagiri, T; Saito, R

2017-01-01

In temperate zones, human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) outbreaks typically occur in cold weather, i.e. in late autumn and winter. However, recent outbreaks in Japan have tended to start during summer and autumn. This study examined associations of meteorological conditions with the numbers of HRSV cases reported in summer in Japan. Using data from the HRSV national surveillance system and national meteorological data for summer during the period 2007-2014, we utilized negative binomial logistic regression analysis to identify associations between meteorological conditions and reported cases of HRSV. HRSV cases increased when summer temperatures rose and when relative humidity increased. Consideration of the interaction term temperature × relative humidity enabled us to show synergistic effects of high temperature with HRSV occurrence. In particular, HRSV cases synergistically increased when relative humidity increased while the temperature was ⩾28·2 °C. Seasonal-trend decomposition analysis using the HRSV national surveillance data divided by 11 climate divisions showed that summer HRSV cases occurred in South Japan (Okinawa Island), Kyushu, and Nankai climate divisions, which are located in southwest Japan. Higher temperature and higher relative humidity were necessary conditions for HRSV occurrence in summer in Japan. Paediatricians in temperate zones should be mindful of possible HRSV cases in summer, when suitable conditions are present.

Influence of Flow Regulation on Summer Water Temperature: Sauce Grande River, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, A.; Hannah, D. M.; Peiry, J.; Campo, A. M.

2012-12-01

This study quantifies the effects of the Paso de las Piedras Dam on the thermal behaviour of the Sauce Grande River, Argentina, during a summer season. A 30-day data set of continuous hourly data was assembled for eight stream temperature gauging sites deployed above and below the impoundment. Time series span the hottest period recorded during summer 2009 to evaluate variations in river water temperature under strong meteorological influence. The methods include: (i) analysis of the time series by inspecting the absolute differences in daily data (magnitude, timing, frequency, duration and rate of change), (ii) classification of diurnal regimes by using a novel regime 'shape' and 'magnitude' classifying method (RSMC), and (ii) quantification of the sensitivity of water temperature regimes to air temperature by computation of a novel sensitivity index (SI). Results showed that fluctuations in daily water temperatures were linked to meteorological drivers; however, spatial variability in the shape and the magnitude of the thermographs revealed the effects of the impoundment in regulating the thermal behaviour of the river downstream. An immediate cooling effect below the dam was evident. Mean daily temperatures were reduced in up to 4 °C, and described a warming trend in the downstream direction over a distance of at least 15 km (up to +2.3 °C). Diurnal cycles were reduced in amplitude and delayed in timing, and revealed a dominance of regime magnitude stability and regime shape climatic insensitivity over a distance of 8 km downstream. These findings provide new information about the water quality of the Sauce Grande River and inform management of flows to maintain the ecological integrity of the river system. Also, they motivate further analysis of potential correlates under varying hydrological and meteorological conditions. The methods presented herein have wider applicability for quantifying river thermal regimes and their sensitivity to climate and other drivers of change over a range of temporal and spatial scales.

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, R.; Díaz, J.; Trigo, R. M.; Hernández, E.

2005-02-01

This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the central Iberian plateau, which had been previously heated.

Few apparent short-term effects of elevated soil temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation on the abundance and taxonomic diversity of desert soil micro- and meso-fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darby, B.J.; Neher, D.A.; Housman, D.C.; Belnap, J.

2011-01-01

Frequent hydration and drying of soils in arid systems can accelerate desert carbon and nitrogen mobilization due to respiration, microbial death, and release of intracellular solutes. Because desert microinvertebrates can mediate nutrient cycling, and the autotrophic components of crusts are known to be sensitive to rapid desiccation due to elevated temperatures after wetting events, we studied whether altered soil temperature and frequency of summer precipitation can also affect the composition of food web consumer functional groups. We conducted a two-year field study with experimentally-elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation in the Colorado Plateau desert, measuring the change in abundance of nematodes, protozoans, and microarthropods. We hypothesized that microfauna would be more adversely affected by the combination of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than either effect alone, as found previously for phototrophic crust biota. Microfauna experienced normal seasonal fluctuations in abundance, but the effect of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation was statistically non-significant for most microfaunal groups, except amoebae. The seasonal increase in abundance of amoebae was reduced with combined elevated temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation compared to either treatment alone, but comparable with control (untreated) plots. Based on our findings, we suggest that desert soil microfauna are relatively more tolerant to increases in ambient temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than the autotrophic components of biological soil crust at the surface.

The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia

2017-04-01

A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often resulted in crop damage and famine. From the XIV century the little Ice Age began. Year average temperature becomes lower by 1.4°C and summer temperature - by 2-3°C. In the XIV century the chronicles mentioned a total of 100 extreme natural phenomena, as a result of which Russia experienced more than 37 years of famine. The climate was particularly variable in late XIV - early XV century and XVI - XVII centuries, when there were years of particularly cold winters and increased humidity (due to winter precipitation). The duration of the crop growing season was reduced by three weeks. At the beginning of the XVII century spruce became dominant in the spruce-deciduous forests and co-dominant in deciduous forests. There was a transfer of settlements and agricultural land to interfluve areas and higher river valleys. The determining factors were demographic, socio-economic and historical factors, but the role of natural factors cannot be overlooked. The end of the XVI century was marked by the most severe political and economic crisis in the Russian State (oprichnina (political and administrative apparatus established by Ivan IV) and Livonian Wars by Ivan IV), which, combined with deteriorating environmental conditions (increased humidity of the climate, the average annual temperature drop) caused massive desolation of the lands. Many hundreds of villages turned into wasteland. In this period the Moscow land was reported as a "wild desert, covered with shrubs, bogs and imbanks", there were also memories of the past navigation on small rivers, data on mills on the streams. The climate deterioration caused the agrarian revolution in Russia in XIV-XVI centuries. Slash-and-burn and shifting cultivation was replaced by plow farming system (two- and three-field), which was more adapted to the harsh climatic conditions. The work is performed under project № 17-05-00662of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2017-08-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2018-06-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

Cardiac autonomic activity has a circadian rhythm in summer but not in winter in non-lactating pregnant dairy cows.

PubMed

Kovács, Levente; Kézér, Fruzsina Luca; Ruff, Ferenc; Szenci, Ottó

2016-03-01

This investigation was conducted to examine circadian and seasonal rhythms of heart rate and heart rate variability (HRV) by means of hour-by-hour recordings over 24h in a large population of non-lactating Holstein-Friesian pregnant cows [N=56, summer (June-July); N=61, winter (November-December)]. Data were collected during a 5-day period from each animal. Besides parameters of cardiac autonomic function [the high-frequency (HF) component of HRV and the ratio between the low-frequency (LF) and the HF components (LF/HF ratio)], the RR triangular index and Lmax were calculated. A clear circadian profile was observed for every parameter in summer. Heart rate elevated gradually with the course of the day from 7:00 to 17:00 o'clock and then slightly decreased from 18:00 to 6:00. Sympathovagal balance shifted towards sympathetic dominance during the daytime (increased LF/HF ratio), whereas parasympathetic activity was predominant during the night (increased HF). Lmax reflected a chaotic behavior of heart rate fluctuations during the afternoon in summer. Decreased values of RR triangular index indicated a sensitive period for cows between 14:00 and 16:00 o'clock in summer. During winter, except for the RR triangular (RRtri) index reflecting a high overall variability in R-R intervals between 12:00 and 23:00 o'clock, heart rate and HRV showed no periodicity over the 24-h period. The results suggest an impaired cardiac autonomic function during daytime in summer. HF, Lmax and RRtri index showed seasonal differences for both daytime and nighttime. Heart rate was higher in summer than in winter during the daytime, whereas the LF/HF ratio was higher in winter during the nighttime. Circadian and seasonal rhythms of cardiovascular function are presumably related to the differing temperature, and animal activity associated with summer and winter. As all of the investigated parameters are commonly used in bovine HRV research, these findings have practical implications for behavioral, physiological and welfare studies on dairy cattle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of wildfire and slope aspect on soil temperature in a mountainous environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, Brian A.

2012-01-01

Soil temperature changes after landscape disturbance impact hydrology, ecology, and geomorphology. This study used field measurements to examine wildfire and aspect effects on soil temperatures. Combustion of the litter and duff layers on north-facing slopes removed pre-fire aspect-driven soil temperature controls.Wildfire is one of the most significant disturbances in mountainous landscapes and can affect soil temperature, which can in turn impact ecologic and geomorphologic processes. This study measured the temperature in near-surface soil (i.e., top 30 cm) during the first summer after a wildfire. In mountainous environments, aspect can also affect soil temperature, so north- vs. south-facing aspects were compared using a fully factorial experimental design to explore the effects of both wildfire and aspect on soil temperature. The data showed major wildfire impacts on soil temperatures on north-facing aspects (unburned ∼4–5°C cooler, on average) but little impact on south-facing aspects. Differences in soil temperatures between north-facing and south-facing unburned aspects (north ∼5°C cooler, on average) were also observed. The data led to the conclusion that, for this field site during the summer period, the forest canopy and litter and duff layers on north-facing slopes (when unburned) substantially decreased mean soil temperatures and temperature variability. The sparse trees on south-facing slopes caused little to no difference in soil temperatures following wildfire in south-facing soils for unburned compared with burned conditions. The results indicate that wildfire can reduce or even remove aspect impacts on soil temperature by combusting the forest canopy and litter and duff layers, which then homogenizes soil temperatures across the landscape.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

Understanding interannual variability in the distribution of, and transport processes affecting, the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus using behavioral-hydrodynamic modeling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jung Jin; Stockhausen, William; Kim, Suam; Cho, Yang-Ki; Seo, Gwang-Ho; Lee, Joon-Soo

2015-11-01

To understand interannual variability in the distribution of the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus summer spawning population, and to identify the key transport processes influencing this variability, we used a coupled bio-physical model that combines an individual-based model (IBM) incorporating ontogenetic vertical migration for paralarval behavior and temperature-dependent survival process with a ROMS oceanographic model. Using the distribution of paralarvae observed in the northern East China Sea (ECS) during several field cruises as an end point, the spawning ground for the summer-spawning population was estimated to extend from southeast Jeju Island to the central ECS near 29°N by running the model backwards in time. Running the model forward, interannual variability in the distribution of paralarvae predicted by the model was consistent with that observed in several field surveys; surviving individuals in the northern ECS were substantially more abundant in late July 2006 than in 2007, in agreement with observed paralarval distributions. The total number of surviving individuals at 60 days after release based on the simulation throughout summer spawning period (June-August) was 20,329 for 2006, compared with 13,816 for 2007. The surviving individuals were mainly distributed in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), corresponding to a pathway following the nearshore branch of the Tsushima Warm Current flowing along the Japanese coast during both years. In contrast, the abundance of surviving individuals was extremely low in 2007 compared to 2006 on the Pacific side of Japan. Interannual variability in transport and survival processes made a substantial impact on not only the abundance of surviving paralarvae, but also on the flux of paralarvae to adjacent waters. Our simulation results for between-year variation in paralarval abundance coincide with recruitment (year n + 1) variability of T. pacificus in the field. The agreement between the simulation and field data indicates our model may be useful for predicting the recruitment of T. pacificus.

Observed ozone exceedances in Italy: statistical analysis and modelling in the period 2002-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, Serena; Curci, Gabriele; Candeloro, Luca; Conte, Annamaria; Ippoliti, Carla

2017-04-01

Local ambient air quality is strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions and meteorological conditions. The year 2015 is considered by NASA scientists as one of the hottest at the global scale since 1880. Furthermore, in Europe it was the first summer after the introduction of Euro6 regulation, the latest emission standard for passenger vehicles. The goal of this study is twofold: (1) the investigation of the impact of the heat wave occurred in the summer of 2015 on ozone levels and (2) the exploration of the weight of temperature as driver of high-level ozone events with respect to other variables. We performed a quantitative examination of the ozone seasons (May-September) for the period 2002-2015 using ozone concentration and weather data from 24 stations across Italy. The number of exceedances of limit values set by the European directive was calculated for each year, and compared with the trend of ozone concentration and temperature. Furthermore, the data were grouped in clusters of consecutive days of ozone exceedances in order to characterize the duration and the intensity of high ozone events. Finally, we developed a multivariate logistic regression model to investigate the role of a set of independent variables (meteorological, and temporal variables, altitude, number of inhabitants, vehicle emission standard) on the probability of exceedances. Results show that 2015 is one of the hottest years after 2003. During the period 2002-2015, the average number of exceedances per station of the daily maximum 8-hour average is often higher than the limit established by the European directive (25 per year). The highest number of exceedances was 65 per station, reached in 2003. The Po Valley is confirmed as a hot spot for pollution, with more frequent exceedances and a higher sensitivity to temperature, especially at urban sites. Ozone events in 2015 were fewer than recent years, but of longer duration (on average 4 days against 3 days), and with similar mean concentrations. On the other hand, high-temperature events have similar duration and higher mean temperature with respect to recent years, pointing out that temperature is not the only driver of high-ozone events. The statistical model confirms a significant impact of the meteorological variables (positive for temperature and pressure, negative for humidity and wind speed) on the probability of ozone events. Significant predictors are also the altitude (negative) and the number of inhabitants (positive). The decreasing observed recent trend is explained by the introduction of the Euro regulations, rather than natural variability. However, we find an inversion of trend for the more recent period under Euro6 (from September 2014), but we cautionary wait a confirmation from additional data at least for the year 2016.

Upper lethal temperatures in three cold-tolerant insects are higher in winter than in summer.

PubMed

Vu, Henry M; Duman, John G

2017-08-01

Upper lethal temperatures (ULTs) of cold-adapted insect species in winter have not been previously examined. We anticipated that as the lower lethal temperatures (LLTs) decreased (by 20-30°C) with the onset of winter, the ULTs would also decrease accordingly. Consequently, given the recent increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles and warmer winters due to climate change, it became of interest to determine whether ambient temperatures during thaws were approaching ULTs during the cold seasons. However, beetle Dendroides canadensis (Coleoptera: Pyrochroidae) larvae had higher 24 and 48 h ULT 50 (the temperature at which 50% mortality occurred) in winter than in summer. The 24 and 48 h ULT 50 for D. canadensis in winter were 40.9 and 38.7°C, respectively. For D. canadensis in summer, the 24 and 48 h ULT 50 were 36.7 and 36.4°C. During the transition periods of spring and autumn, the 24 h ULT 50 was 37.3 and 38.5°C, respectively. While D. canadensis in winter had a 24 h LT 50 range between LLT and ULT of 64°C, the summer range was only 41°C. Additionally, larvae of the beetle Cucujus clavipes clavipes (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) and the cranefly Tipula trivittata (Diptera: Tipulidae) also had higher ULTs in winter than in summer. This unexpected phenomenon of increased temperature survivorship at both lower and higher temperatures in the winter compared with that in the summer has not been previously documented. With the decreased high temperature tolerance as the season progresses from winter to summer, it was observed that environmental temperatures are closest to upper lethal temperatures in spring. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Inferences about winter temperatures and summer rains from the late Quaternary record of C4 perennial grasses and C3 desert shrubs in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmgren, Camille A.; Norris, Jodi; Betancourt, Julio L.

2007-01-01

Late Quaternary histories of two North American desert biomes—C4 grasslands and C3 shrublands—are poorly known despite their sensitivity and potential value in reconstructing summer rains and winter temperatures. Plant macrofossil assemblages from packrat midden series in the northern Chihuahuan Desert show that C4 grasses and annuals typical of desert grassland persisted near their present northern limits throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. By contrast, key C3 desert shrubs appeared somewhat abruptly after 5000cal.yrBP. Bioclimatic envelopes for select C4 and C3 species are mapped to interpret the glacial-interglacial persistence of desert grassland and the mid-to-late Holocene expansion of desert shrublands. The envelopes suggest relatively warm Pleistocene temperatures with moist summers allowed for persistence of C4 grasses, whereas winters were probably too cold (or too wet) for C3 desert shrubs. Contrary to climate model results, core processes associated with the North American Monsoon and moisture transport to the northern Chihuahuan Desert remained intact throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Mid-latitude effects, however, truncated midsummer (July-August) moisture transport north of 35° N. The sudden expansion of desert shrublands after 5000cal.yrBP may be a threshold response to warmer winters associated with increasing boreal winter insolation, and enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability.

Vegetation, climate and lake changes over the last 7000 years at the boreal treeline in north-central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemm, Juliane; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Pestryakova, Luidmila A.

2016-09-01

Palaeoecological investigations in the larch forest-tundra ecotone in northern Siberia have the potential to reveal Holocene environmental variations, which likely have consequences for global climate change because of the strong high-latitude feedback mechanisms. A sediment core, collected from a small lake (radius ∼100 m), was used to reconstruct the development of the lake and its catchment as well as vegetation and summer temperatures over the last 7100 calibrated years. A multi-proxy approach was taken including pollen and sedimentological analyses. Our data indicate a gradual replacement of open larch forests by tundra with scattered single trees as found today in the vicinity of the lake. An overall trend of cooling summer temperature from a ∼2 °C warmer-than-present mid-Holocene summer temperatures until the establishment of modern conditions around 3000 years ago is reconstructed based on a regional pollen-climate transfer function. The inference of regional vegetation changes was compared to local changes in the lake's catchment. An initial small water depression occurred from 7100 to 6500 cal years BP. Afterwards, a small lake formed and deepened, probably due to thermokarst processes. Although the general trends of local and regional environmental change match, the lake catchment changes show higher variability. Furthermore, changes in the lake catchment slightly precede those in the regional vegetation. Both proxies highlight that marked environmental changes occurred in the Siberian forest-tundra ecotone over the course of the Holocene.

Mesospheric Simulations with the NOGAPS-ALPHA model: Applications to the Summer Polar Mesosphere and AIM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siskind, D. E.; Eckermann, S. D.; McCormack, J. P.; Hoppel, K. W.; Russell, J. M.; Bailey, S.; Hervig, M.; Rusch, D.

2007-12-01

The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), the Department of Defense's global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, consists of two main components: the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS) and a global spectral general circulation model (GCM) for forecasting. NRL researchers are currently developing an Advanced-Level Physics High-Altitude (ALPHA) NOGAPS prototype that extends the currently operational 1 hPa upper boundary of NOGAPS through the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to ~110 km. We report results of preliminary experiments with this NOGAPS-ALPHA system during May-June 2007, focused on the northern hemisphere (NH) summer mesosphere observed from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite. These AIM-period NOGAPS-ALPHA experiments have two main goals: to provide global modeling support for AIM science and to allow objective validation of these new NOGAPS-ALPHA MLT fields using independent observations from AIM. We report results of runs which assimilate temperature and water vapor data from the SABER and MLS instruments up to ~0.01 hPa. We investigate the development of the cold NH summer mesopause in NOGAPS-ALPHA and its sensitivity to parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag (GWD) and radiative heating/cooling by comparing with temperatures and water vapor measured by AIM's SOFIE instrument. We can also compare the variability in the NOGAPS-ALPHA temperature and water vapor fields with mesospheric cloud occurrence statistics measured by CIPS on AIM.

Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

2015-12-01

Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05) of 0.25 (SD 0.61) °C in the morning and 0.24 (SD 0.50) °C in the afternoon. Differences between oral temperatures in summer and winter tended to be greater in subjects with low ADL scores, even when their room temperature was well-controlled. In conclusion, the oral temperatures of the elderly are lower in winter than summer, particularly in physically inactive people. It appears that those with low levels of ADL are more vulnerable to large changes in ambient temperature.

Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.

2014-06-01

Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) aremore » found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.« less

Sea surface temperature variability in the Gulf of Mexico from 1734-2008 CE: A reconstruction using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, K. L.; Flannery, J. A.; Quinn, T. M.; Maupin, C. R.; Lin, K.; Shen, C.

2013-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf of Mexico impacts climate in Central and North America because the Gulf is a major source of moisture and is a source region for the Gulf Stream, which transports ocean heat northward. Here we use skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to develop 274 years of monthly-resolved SST variations. The cross-dated chronology, determined by counting annual density bands and correlating Sr/Ca variations, is verified by four replicated high precision 230Th dates (×1.7-37 years, 2σ). Calibration and verification of our replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with Dry Tortugas SST (r = 0.98 and 0.55 for monthly and 36-month smoothed, respectively; 1992-2008 CE) and Key West, Florida surface air temperature (1895-2008 CE) measurements reveals similar covariance (r = 0.96 and 0.56 for monthly and 36-month smoothed, respectively). The absolute coral SST reconstruction is consistent with SST recorded at the Dry Tortugas lighthouse from 1879-1907 CE indicating that this coral Sr/Ca-SST relationship is stable on centennial time scales. The Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction reveals ~2.0°C interannual variability, ~1.5°C decadal fluctuations, and a 0.7°C warming trend for the past 274 years. Secular variability in our reconstruction is similar to approximately decadally resolved planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca records from the northern Gulf of Mexico. The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction reveals colder decades (~1.5°C) suggesting a reduction in moisture and ocean heat flux from the Gulf of Mexico. We find winter extremes are more variable than summer extremes (×2.2°C vs. ×1.6°C, 2σ) with a stronger warming trend (1°C) in the summers suggesting continued warming may increase coral bleaching.

Diagnosing the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer precipitation in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jingpeng; Ren, Hong-Li; Li, Weijing; Zuo, Jinqing

2018-03-01

Precipitation in southern China during boreal summer (June to August) shows a substantial interdecadal variability on the timescale longer than 8 years. In this study, based on the analysis of singular value decomposition, we diagnose the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the observational precipitation in southern China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean. Results indicate that there exist a remarkable southern China zonal dipole (SCZD) pattern of interdecadal variability of summer precipitation and an interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (ID-IOBM) of SST. It is found that the SCZD is evidently covaried with the ID-IOBM, which may induce anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and atmospheric Kelvin waves. During the warm phase of the ID-IOBM, an enhanced lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence exist over the tropical Indian Ocean, which is a typical Gill-Matsuno-type response to the SST warming. Meanwhile, the accompanied upper-level outflow anomalies further converge over the Indo-China peninsula, resulting in a lower-level anticyclone that contributes to reduction of the eastward moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal to the west part of southern China. In addition, the Kelvin wave-like pattern, as a response of the warm ID-IOBM phase, further induces the lower-level anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea-Philippines. Such an anticyclonic circulation is favorable for more water vapor transport from the East China Sea into the east part of southern China. Therefore, the joint effects of the anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and the Kelvin wave-like pattern associated with the ID-IOBM may eventually play a key role in generating the SCZD pattern.

Distribution of moon jellyfish Aurelia aurita in relation to summer hypoxia in Hiroshima Bay, Seto Inland Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoji, Jun; Kudoh, Takaya; Takatsuji, Hideyuki; Kawaguchi, Osamu; Kasai, Akihide

2010-02-01

Biological and physical surveys were conducted in order to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and the distribution of moon jellyfish Aurelia aurita in Hiroshima Bay, western Seto Inland Sea, Japan. Moon jellyfish and ichthyoplankton were collected at 13 stations in Hiroshima Bay during monthly surveys from July to September in 2006 and 2007. Surface temperature in 2006 was significantly lower during the August and September cruises and surface salinity was lower during all cruises than in 2007. Moon jellyfish was the most dominant gelatinous plankton collected, accounting for 89.7% in wet weight. Mean moon jellyfish abundance in 2006 was higher than that in 2007 from July through September, with significant inter-year differences for July and September. Variability in precipitation and nutritional input from the Ohta River, northernmost part of Hiroshima Bay, were suggested as possible factors affecting the inter-annual variability in moon jellyfish abundance in the coastal areas of northern Hiroshima Bay. Moon jellyfish were more abundant in the coastal areas of northern Hiroshima Bay, where the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration was lower, while low in the central part of the bay. Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus eggs were most dominant (58.1% in number) among the ichthyoplankton and were abundant in the central area of Hiroshima Bay. Explanatory analysis was conducted to detect possible effects of environmental conditions on the abundance of moon jellyfish and Japanese anchovy eggs during the summer months in Hiroshima Bay. Of the environmental conditions tested (temperature, salinity and DO of surface and bottom layers at each sampling station), bottom DO had the most significant effect on the moon jellyfish abundance: there was a negative correlation between the bottom DO and the moon jellyfish abundance in Hiroshima Bay during summer.

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, A. Park; Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Rauscher, Sara A.; Robertson, Iain; Wils, Tommy H. G.; Koprowski, Marcin; Eshetu, Zewdu; Loader, Neil J.

2012-11-01

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Variability of the western Galician upwelling system (NW Spain) during an intensively sampled annual cycle. An EOF analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, J. L.; Rosón, G.; Varela, R. A.; Piedracoba, S.

2008-07-01

The key features of the western Galician shelf hydrography and dynamics are analyzed on a solid statistical and experimental basis. The results allowed us to gather together information dispersed in previous oceanographic works of the region. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and a canonical correlation analysis were applied to a high-resolution dataset collected from 47 surveys done on a weekly frequency from May 2001 to May 2002. The main results of these analyses are summarized bellow. Salinity, temperature and the meridional component of the residual current are correlated with the relevant local forcings (the meridional coastal wind component and the continental run-off) and with a remote forcing (the meridional temperature gradient at latitude 37°N). About 80% of the salinity and temperature total variability over the shelf, and 37% of the residual meridional current total variability are explained by two EOFs for each variable. Up to 22% of the temperature total variability and 14% of the residual meridional current total variability is devoted to the set up of cross-shore gradients of the thermohaline properties caused by the wind-induced Ekman transport. Up to 11% and 10%, respectively, is related to the variability of the meridional temperature gradient at the Western Iberian Winter Front. About 30% of the temperature total variability can be explained by the development and erosion of the seasonal thermocline and by the seasonal variability of the thermohaline properties of the central waters. This thermocline presented unexpected low salinity values due to the trapping during spring and summer of the high continental inputs from the River Miño recorded in 2001. The low salinity plumes can be traced on the Galician shelf during almost all the annual cycle; they tend to be extended throughout the entire water column under downwelling conditions and concentrate in the surface layer when upwelling favourable winds blow. Our evidences point to the meridional temperature gradient acting as an important controlling factor of the central waters thermohaline properties and in the development and decay of the Iberian Poleward Current.

Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Sottile, Marie-France; Plante, Céline; Brand, Allan; Casati, Barbara; Fournier, Michel

2014-01-01

Background: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. Objectives: We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios. Methods: We used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June–August 2020–2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths. Results: We found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June–August of 2020–2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020–2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June–August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature–mortality RR used to estimate the ANs. Conclusions: The choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections. Citation: Benmarhnia T, Sottile MF, Plante C, Brand A, Casati B, Fournier M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change. Environ Health Perspect 122:1293–1298; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306954 PMID:25036003

Analysis of the climate variability on Lake Nasser evaporation based on the Bowen ratio energy budget method.

PubMed

Elsawwaf, Mohamed; Willems, Patrick

2012-04-01

Variations in lake evaporation have a significant impact on the energy and water budgets of lakes. Understanding these variations and the role of climate is important for water resources management as well as predicting future changes in lake hydrology as a result of climate change. This study presents a comprehensive, 10-year analysis of seasonal, intraseasonal, and interannual variations in lake evaporation for Lake Nasser in South Egypt. Meteorological and lake temperature measurements were collected from an instrumented platform (Raft floating weather station) at 2 km upstream ofthe Aswan High Dam. In addition to that, radiation measurements at three locations on the lake: Allaqi, Abusembel and Arqeen (respectively at 75, 280 and 350 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam) are used. The data were analyzed over 14-day periods from 1995 to 2004 to provide bi-weekly energy budget estimates of evaporation rate. The mean evaporation rate for lake Nasser over the study period was 5.88 mm day(-1), with a coefficient of variation of 63%. Considerable variability in evaporation rates was found on a wide range of timescales, with seasonal changes having the highest coefficient of variation (32%), followed by the intraseasonal (28%) and interannual timescales (11.6%; for summer means). Intraseasonal changes in evaporation were primarily associated with synoptic weather variations, with high evaporation events tending to occur during incursions of cold, dry air (due, in part, to the thermal lag between air and lake temperatures). Seasonal variations in evaporation were largely driven by temperature and net energy advection, but are out-of-phase with changes in wind speed. On interannual timescales, changes in summer evaporation rates were strongly associated with changes in net energy advection and showed only moderate connections to variations in temperature or humidity.

Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

2010-09-01

Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model ( P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.

Late Holocene vegetation and climate change on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: Implications for the Indian Summer Monsoon and links to the Indian Ocean Dipole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kai; Liu, Xingqi; Wang, Yongbo; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Ni, Jian; Liao, Mengna; Xiao, Xiayun

2017-12-01

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is one of the most important climate systems, whose variability and driving mechanisms are of broad interest for academic and societal communities. Here, we present a well-dated high-resolution pollen analysis from a 4.82-m long sediment core taken from Basomtso, in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), which depicts the regional climate changes of the past millennium. Our results show that subalpine coniferous forest was dominant around Basomtso from ca. 867 to ca. 750 cal. yr BP, indicating a warm and semi-humid climate. The timberline in the study area significantly decreased from ca. 750 to ca. 100 cal. yr BP, and a cold climate, corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed. Since ca. 100 cal. yr BP, the vegetation type changed to forest-meadow with rising temperatures and moisture. Ordination analysis reveals that the migration of vegetation was dominated by regional temperatures and then by moisture. Further comparisons between the Basomtso pollen record and the regional temperature reconstructions underscore the relevance of the Basomtso record from the southeastern TP for regional and global climatologies. Our pollen based moisture reconstruction demonstrates the strong multicentennial-scale link to ISM variability, providing solid evidence for the increase of monsoonal strengths over the past four centuries. Spectral analysis indicates the potential influence of solar forcing. However, a closer relationship has been observed between multicentennial ISM variations and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs), suggesting that the variations in monsoonal precipitation over the southeastern TP are probably driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole on the multicentennial scale.

Daytime variation in ambient temperature affects skin temperatures and blood pressure: Ambulatory winter/summer comparison in healthy young women.

PubMed

Martinez-Nicolas, Antonio; Meyer, Martin; Hunkler, Stefan; Madrid, Juan Antonio; Rol, Maria Angeles; Meyer, Andrea H; Schötzau, Andy; Orgül, Selim; Kräuchi, Kurt

2015-10-01

It is widely accepted that cold exposure increases peripheral vascular resistance and arterial blood pressure (BP) and, hence, increases cardiovascular risk primarily in the elderly. However, there is a lack of concomitantly longitudinal recordings at personal level of environmental temperature (PET) and cardiophysiological variables together with skin temperatures (STs, the “interface-variable” between the body core and ambient temperature). To investigate the intra-individual temporal relationships between PET, STs and BP 60 healthy young women (52 completed the entire study) were prospectively studied in a winter/summer design for 26 h under real life conditions. The main hypothesis was tested whether distal ST (Tdist)mediates the effect of PET-changes on mean arterial BP (MAP). Diurnal profiles of cardiophysiological variables (including BP), STs and PET were ambulatory recorded. Daytime variations between 0930 and 2030 h were analyzed in detail by intra-individual longitudinal path analysis. Additionally, time segments before, during and after outdoor exposure were separately analyzed. In both seasons short-term variations in PET were positively associated with short-term changes in Tdist (not proximal ST, Tprox) and negatively with those in MAP. However, long-term seasonal differences in daytime mean levels were observed in STs but not in BP leading to non-significant inter-individual correlation between STs and BP. Additionally, higher individual body mass index (BMI) was significantly associated with lower daytime mean levels of Tprox and higher MAP suggesting Tprox as potential mediator variable for the association of BMI with MAP. In healthy young women the thermoregulatory and BP-regulatory systems are closely linked with respect to short-term, but not long-term changes in PET. One hypothetical explanation could serve recent findings that thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue is activated in a cool environment, which could be responsible for the counter-regulation of cold induced increase of BP in winter leading to no seasonal differences in MAP. Our findings suggest that the assessment of diurnal patterns of STs and PET, in addition to the conventional ambulatory BP monitoring, might improve individual cardiovascular risk prediction.

Short-term seaward fish migration in the Messolonghi Etoliko lagoons (Western Greek coast) in relation to climatic variables and the lunar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katselis, George; Koukou, Katerina; Dimitriou, Evagelos; Koutsikopoulos, Constantin

2007-07-01

In the present study we analysed the daily seaward migratory behaviour of four dominant euryhaline fish species (Mugilidae: Liza saliens, Liza aurata, Mugil cephalus and Sparidae: Sparus aurata) in the Messolonghi Etoliko lagoon system (Western Greek coast) based on the daily landings' time series of barrier traps and assessed the relationship between their migratory behaviour and various climatic variables (air temperature and atmospheric pressure) and the lunar cycle. A 2-year time series of daily fish landings (1993 and 1994), a long time series of daily air temperature and daily temperature range (1991 1998) as well as a 4-year time series of the daily atmospheric pressure (1994 1997) and daily pressure range were used. Harmonic models (HM) consisting of annual and lunar cycle harmonic components explained most (R2 > 0.80) of the mean daily species landings and temperature variations, while a rather low part of the variation (0.18 < R2 < 0.27) was explained for pressure, daily pressure range and daily temperature range. In all the time series sets the amplitude of the annual component was highest. The model values of all species revealed two important migration periods (summer and winter) corresponding to the spawning and refuge migrations. The lunar cycle effect on species' daily migration rates and the short-term fluctuation of daily migration rates were rather low. However, the short-term fluctuation of some species' daily migration rates during winter was greater than during summer. In all species, the main migration was the spawning migration. The model lunar components of the species landings showed a monthly oscillation synchronous to the full moon (S. aurata and M. cephalus) or a semi-monthly oscillation synchronous to the new and full moon (L. aurata and L. saliens). Bispectral analysis of the model values and the model residuals' time series revealed that the species daily migration were correlated (coherencies > 0.6) to the daily fluctuations of the climatic variables at seasonal, mid and short-term scales.

East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Historical Perspective of the 1998 Flood over Yangtze River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weng, H.-Y.; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

One of the main factors that might have caused the disastrous flood in China during 1998 summer is long-term variations that include a trend indicating increasing monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. China's 160-station monthly rainfall anomaly for the summers of 1955-98 is analyzed for exploring such long-term variations. Singular value decomposition (SVD) between the summer rainfall and the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reveals that the rainfall over Yangtze River Valley is closely related to global and regional SST variabilities at both interannual and interdecadal timescales. SVD1 mode links the above normal rainfall condition in central China to an El Nino-like SSTA distribution, varying on interannual timescale modified by a trend during the period. SVD3 mode links positive rainfall anomaly in Yangtze River Valley to the warm SST anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific, varying on interannual timescales modified by interdecadal timescales. This link tends to be stronger when the Nino3 area becomes colder and the western subtropical Pacific becomes warmer. The 1998 summer is a transition season when the 1997/98 El Nino event was in its decaying phase, and the SST in the Nino3 area emerged below normal anomaly while the subtropical western Pacific SST above normal. Thus, the first and third SVD modes become dominant in 1998 summer, favoring more Asian summer monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley.

Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

2017-09-01

The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and TSI. The negative intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS and TSI indicates that high (low) solar activity weakens (strengthens) the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature during the summer monsoon season and subsequently the weak (strong) ΔTTJJAS decreases (increases) the ISMR. However, the presence of AMO transforms the negative intrinsic relation between ΔTTJJAS and TSI into positive extrinsic and strengthens the ISMR. We conclude that the positive relation between ISMR and solar activity, as found by other authors, is mainly due to the effect of AMO on ISMR.

Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

2018-06-01

The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and TSI. The negative intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS and TSI indicates that high (low) solar activity weakens (strengthens) the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature during the summer monsoon season and subsequently the weak (strong) ΔTTJJAS decreases (increases) the ISMR. However, the presence of AMO transforms the negative intrinsic relation between ΔTTJJAS and TSI into positive extrinsic and strengthens the ISMR. We conclude that the positive relation between ISMR and solar activity, as found by other authors, is mainly due to the effect of AMO on ISMR.

Transpiration rates of urban trees, Aesculus chinensis.

PubMed

Wang, Hua; Wang, Xiaoke; Zhao, Ping; Zheng, Hua; Ren, Yufen; Gao, Fuyuan; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-01-01

Transpiration patterns of Aesculus chinensis in relation to explanatory variables in the microclimatic, air quality, and biological phenomena categories were measured in Beijing, China using the thermal dissipation method. The highest transpiration rate measured as the sap flux density of the trees took place from 10:00 am to 13:00 pm in the summer and the lowest was found during nighttime in the winter. To sort out co-linearity, principal component analysis and variation and hierarchical partitioning methods were employed in data analyses. The evaporative demand index (EDI) consisting of air temperature, soil temperature, total radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and atmospheric ozone (O3), explained 68% and 80% of the hourly and daily variations of the tree transpiration, respectively. The independent and joint effects of EDI variables together with a three-variable joint effect exerted the greatest influences on the variance of transpiration rates. The independent effects of leaf area index and atmospheric O3 and their combined effect exhibited minor yet significant influences on tree transpiration rates.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, X.; Hünicke, B.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-11-01

Studies based on upwelling indices (sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind) suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In order to examine this relationship directly, we employ the vertical water mass transport produced by the eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by meteorological reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyze the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analyses reveal high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r=0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the ISM is small and other factors might contribute to the upwelling variability. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modeled upwelling time series.

Modeling seasonal variability of fecal coliform in natural surface waters using the modified SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Kim, Minjeong; Pyo, JongCheol; Park, Mi-Hyun; Kim, Young Mo; Kim, Jung-Woo; Kim, Joon Ha

2016-04-01

Fecal coliforms are indicators of pathogens and thereby, understanding of their fate and transport in surface waters is important to protect drinking water sources and public health. We compiled fecal coliform observations from four different sites in the USA and Korea and found a seasonal variability with a significant connection to temperature levels. In all observations, fecal coliform concentrations were relatively higher in summer and lower during the winter season. This could be explained by the seasonal dominance of growth or die-off of bacteria in soil and in-stream. Existing hydrologic models, however, have limitations in simulating the seasonal variability of fecal coliform. Soil and in-stream bacterial modules of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model are oversimplified in that they exclude simulations of alternating bacterial growth. This study develops a new bacteria subroutine for the SWAT in an attempt to improve its prediction accuracy. We introduced critical temperatures as a parameter to simulate the onset of bacterial growth/die-off and to reproduce the seasonal variability of bacteria. The module developed in this study will improve modeling for environmental management schemes.

Chironomid-based reconstructions of summer air temperature from lake deposits in Lyndon Stream, New Zealand spanning the MIS 3/2 transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, C. A.; Shulmeister, J.

2007-01-01

We present chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from lake sediments deposited between ca 26,600 cal yr BP and 24,500 cal yr BP from Lyndon Stream, South Island, New Zealand. Summer (February mean) temperatures averaged 1 °C cooler, with a maximum inferred cooling of 3.7 °C. These estimates corroborate macrofossil and beetle-based temperature inferences from the same site and suggest climate amelioration (an interstadial) at this time. Other records from the New Zealand region also show a large degree of variability during the late Otiran glacial sequence (34,000-18,000 cal yr BP) including a phase of warming at the MIS 2/3 transition and a maximum cooling that did not occur until the global LGM (ca 20,000 cal yr BP). The very moderate cooling identified here at the MIS 2/3 transition confirms and enhances the long-standing discrepancy in New Zealand records between pollen and other proxies. Low abundances (<20%) of canopy tree pollen in records from late MIS 3 to the end of MIS 2 cannot be explained by the minor (<5 °C) cooling inferred from this and other studies unless other environmental parameters are considered. Further work is required to address this critical issue.

Exploring hydrological uncertainties and thresholds of a drought vulnerable region in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hohmann, Clara; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Birk, Steffen

2015-04-01

In the region of South-Eastern Styria, Austria, a strong increase of summer temperature over the last decades was recognized by Kabas et. al. (Meteorol. Z./ 20 (3), 277-289, 2011). With climate change the temperature will further increase, so that the possibility for more frequent droughts in summer will rise. This leads to the question if, for example, a steppe climate similar to that in the neighboring Hungarian Pussta can evolve in this region. Drastic climatic changes will be accompanied by strong changes in the hydrological balance. Since the region is strongly influenced by agriculture and other non-climatic factors as well, these human impacts on the water cycle must be considered. The Wegener Center, University of Graz is studying the Raab catchment in South-Eastern Styria, Austria, as an example of a small catchment of the climate-sensitive southern Alpine foothills. The available data indicate that the region is vulnerable to droughts in summer, signalled by a strong temperature increase over the recent decades and a tendency of precipitation decrease. The main goals of this study are to explore how the water balance in the region is going to change in the future, what the most significant uncertainties are and where there might be thresholds towards drastic changes. In this poster we report on the first steps, which is to build up a hydrological model for the Styrian Raab valley based on the Water balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) of ETH Zurich, Switzerland. Within the calibration the focus is on low flow conditions in summer. Given that the model shows good results for the well observed recent decades, a sensitivity analysis for changes in specific (control) parameters of the surface water balance is conducted. This will include anomalies of temperature and precipitation, water use for irrigation, and others. This enables to explore how warmer temperatures or changes in irrigation and crops affect the catchment. Model analyses do not only focus on flow conditions but also on internal variables, such as the soil moisture, which has a significant impact on the water balance and the drought vulnerability of the region.

Spatial and Temporal Reconstruction of Scottish Summer Temperatures for the Last 300 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydval, Miloš; Cook, Edward R.; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Larsson, Lars-Åke; Wilson, Rob

2015-04-01

It is important to place recent anthropogenic climate change into a longer term context. Despite a good understanding of past climate variation for much of the Scandinavian region, little is known about Scottish climate over recent centuries. In order to fill this current gap in our understanding of northwest European climate dynamics and thus provide the context necessary to assess likely future changes of climate in this climatically important region, the limited spatial and temporal coverage of instrumental data must be extended using proxy data. Tree-rings provide one of the best proxy data sources for such an exercise. Until recently, the development of dendrochronological records in Scotland for climatological purposes has been limited. To help develop insight into the patterns of temperature variability in this region, multiple tree-ring parameters including ring-width (RW), maximum latewood density (MXD) and blue intensity (BI) from a network of 42 living Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) sites distributed throughout the Scottish Highlands were utilized to reconstruct mean summer temperature with a grid resolution of 0.5°. Due to considerable anthropogenic disturbance from past logging events at some locations, RW data were assessed and corrected for disturbance-related growth releases using a Combined Step and Trend Intervention Detection methodology prior to their utilization in reconstruction development. Although the BI parameter offers a cheaper alternative to MXD while providing similar information, some limitations have been noted related to heartwood-sapwood colour differences in some species that may induce low frequency chronology biases. To avoid such BI limitations, in addition to the use of individual parameter site chronologies, corrected RW series were also combined with BI data to develop filtered high-frequency-BI / low-frequency-RW composite band-pass chronologies. Utilizing the TR network, a point-by-point principal component regression nested analysis was used to derive spatially independent reconstructions of (0.5°) gridded summer temperatures. The reconstruction results identified the timing, scale and duration of warmer and colder periods in the recent past, revealing the spatial patterns of temperature variability in this region over the past few centuries. The spatial reconstruction results agree well with a 600-yr composite BI / RW reconstruction from central Scotland using independent Scots pine chronologies extended into the past with samples preserved in Highland lakes.

Implementation of a subcanopy solar radiation model on a forested headwater basin in the Southern Appalachians to estimate riparian canopy density and stream insolation for stream temperature models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belica, L.; Petras, V.; Iiames, J. S., Jr.; Caldwell, P.; Mitasova, H.; Nelson, S. A. C.

2016-12-01

Water temperature is a key aspect of water quality and understanding how the thermal regimes of forested headwater streams may change in response to climatic and land cover changes is increasingly important to scientists and resource managers. In recent years, the forested mountain watersheds of the Southeastern U.S. have experienced changing climatic patterns as well as the loss of a keystone riparian tree species and anticipated hydrologic responses include lower summer stream flows and decreased stream shading. Solar radiation is the main source of thermal energy to streams and a key parameter in heat-budget models of stream temperature; a decrease in flow volume combined with a reduction in stream shading during summer have the potential to increase stream temperatures. The high spatial variability of forest canopies and the high spatio-temporal variability in sky conditions make estimating the solar radiation reaching small forested headwater streams difficult. The Subcanopy Solar Radiation Model (SSR) (Bode et al. 2014) is a GIS model that generates high resolution, spatially explicit estimates of solar radiation by incorporating topographic and vegetative shading with a light penetration index derived from leaf-on airborne LIDAR data. To evaluate the potential of the SSR model to provide estimates of stream insolation to parameterize heat-budget models, it was applied to the Coweeta Basin in the Southern Appalachians using airborne LIDAR (NCALM 2009, 1m resolution). The LIDAR derived canopy characteristics were compared to current hyperspectral images of the canopy for changes and the SSR estimates of solar radiation were compared with pyranometer measurements of solar radiation at several subcanopy sites during the summer of 2016. Preliminary results indicate the SSR model was effective in identifying variations in canopy density and light penetration, especially in areas associated with road and stream corridors and tree mortality. Current LIDAR data and more solar radiation measurements are needed to fully validate the accuracy of the SSR model in Southern Appalachian forests, but initial results suggest the high resolution, spatially explicit estimates of solar radiation can improve solar radiation parameter estimates in deterministic models of stream temperature in forested landscapes.

Trends and variability in summer sea ice cover in the Canadian Arctic based on the Canadian Ice Service Digital Archive, 1960-2008 and 1968-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tivy, Adrienne; Howell, Stephen E. L.; Alt, Bea; McCourt, Steve; Chagnon, Richard; Crocker, Greg; Carrieres, Tom; Yackel, John J.

2011-03-01

The Canadian Ice Service Digital Archive (CISDA) is a compilation of weekly ice charts covering Canadian waters from the early 1960s to present. The main sources of uncertainty in the database are reviewed and the data are validated for use in climate studies before trends and variability in summer averaged sea ice cover are investigated. These data revealed that between 1968 and 2008, summer sea ice cover has decreased by 11.3% ± 2.6% decade-1 in Hudson Bay, 2.9% ± 1.2% decade-1 in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), 8.9% ± 3.1% decade-1 in Baffin Bay, and 5.2% ± 2.4% decade-1 in the Beaufort Sea with no significant reductions in multiyear ice. Reductions in sea ice cover are linked to increases in early summer surface air temperature (SAT); significant increases in SAT were observed in every season and they are consistently greater than the pan-Arctic change by up to ˜0.2°C decade-1. Within the CAA and Baffin Bay, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index correlates well with multiyear ice coverage (positive) and first-year ice coverage (negative) suggesting that El Niño episodes precede summers with more multiyear ice and less first-year ice. Extending the trend calculations back to 1960 along the major shipping routes revealed significant decreases in summer sea ice coverage ranging between 11% and 15% decade-1 along the route through Hudson Bay and 6% and 10% decade-1 along the southern route of the Northwest Passage, the latter is linked to increases in SAT. Between 1960 and 2008, no significant trends were found along the northern western Parry Channel route of the Northwest Passage.

Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

2018-02-01

The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from fossil midge assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Joos, Fortunat; Renssen, Hans; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Tinner, Willy

2017-02-01

Understanding past climate trends is key for reliable projections of global warming and associated risks and hazards. Uncomfortably large discrepancies between vegetation-based summer temperature reconstructions (mainly based on pollen) and climate model results have been reported for the current interglacial, the Holocene. For the Mediterranean region these reconstructions indicate cooler-than-present mid-Holocene summers, in contrast with expectations based on climate models and long-term changes in summer insolation. We present new quantitative and replicated Holocene summer temperature reconstructions based on fossil chironomid midges from the northern central Mediterranean region. The Holocene thermal maximum is reconstructed 9,000-5,000 years ago and estimated to have been 1-2 °C warmer in mean July temperature than the recent pre-industrial period, consistent with glacier and marine records, and with transient climate model runs. This combined evidence implies that widely used pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean area are significantly biased by precipitation or other forcings such as early land use. Our interpretation can resolve the previous discrepancy between climate models and quantitative palaeotemperature records for millennial-scale Holocene summer temperature trends in the Mediterranean region. It also suggests that pollen-based evidence for cool mid-Holocene summers in other semi-arid to arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere may have to be reconsidered, with potential implications for global-scale reconstructions.

Stratospheric variability in summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Donn, W. L.; Robinson, W.

1981-01-01

Rocketsonde observations and infrasound results are used to investigate the variability of the summer stratopause region during one month in summer. Fluctuations of 2-3 days and about 16-day periods are evident, and they appear to be propagating vertically. In this month the 2-3 day oscillations have an amplitude envelope equal in period to the longer period oscillations, implying a connection between the two phenomena. Observations of the diurnal tide and shorter period variability during the month are also presented.

Intrinsic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes of the Asian Summer Monsoon: A Re-assessment of Monsoon-ENSO Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H. T.

2000-01-01

Using global rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) data for the past two decades (1979-1998), we have investigated the intrinsic modes of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and ENSO co-variability. Three recurring ASM rainfall-SST coupled modes were identified. The first is a basin scale mode that features SST and rainfall variability over the entire tropics (including the ASM region), identifiable with those occurring during El Nino or La Nina. This mode is further characterized by a pronounced biennial variation in ASM rainfall and SST associated with fluctuations of the anomalous Walker circulation that occur during El Nino/La Nina transitions. The second mode comprises mixed regional and basin-scale rainfall and SST signals, with pronounced intraseasonal and interannual variabilities. This mode features a SST pattern associated with a developing La Nina, with a pronounced low level anticyclone in the subtropics of the western Pacific off the coast of East Asia. The third mode depicts an east-west rainfall and SST dipole across the southern equatorial Indian Ocean, most likely stemming from coupled ocean-atmosphere processes within the ASM region. This mode also possesses a decadal time scale and a linear trend, which are not associated with El Nino/La Nina variability. Possible causes of year-to-year rainfall variability over the ASM and sub-regions have been evaluated from a reconstruction of the observed rainfall from singular eigenvectors of the coupled modes. It is found that while basin-scale SST can account for portions of ASM rainfall variability during ENSO events (up to 60% in 1998), regional processes can accounts up to 20-25% of the rainfall variability in typical non-ENSO years. Stronger monsoon-ENSO relationship tends to occur in the boreal summer immediately preceding a pronounced La Nina, i.e., 1998, 1988 and 1983. Based on these results, we discuss the possible impacts of the ASM on ENSO variability via the west Pacific anticyclone and articulate a hypothesis that anomalous wind forcings derived from the anticyclone may be instrumental in inducing a strong biennial modulation to natural ENSO cycles.

Shrubs tracing sea surface temperature--Calluna vulgaris on the Faroe Islands.

PubMed

Beil, Ilka; Buras, Allan; Hallinger, Martin; Smiljanić, Marko; Wilmking, Martin

2015-11-01

The climate of Central and Northern Europe is highly influenced by the North Atlantic Ocean due to heat transfer from lower latitudes. Detailed knowledge about spatio-temporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in that region is thus of high interest for climate and environmental research. Because of the close relations between ocean and coastal climate and the climate sensitivity of plant growth, annual rings of woody plants in coastal regions might be used as a proxy for SST. We show here for the first time the proxy potential of the common and widespread evergreen dwarf shrub Calluna vulgaris (heather), using the Faroe Islands as our case study. Despite its small and irregular ring structure, the species seems suitable for dendroecological investigations. Ring width showed high and significant correlations with summer and winter air temperatures and SST. The C. vulgaris chronology from the Faroe Islands, placed directly within the North Atlantic Current, clearly reflects variations in summer SSTs over an area between Iceland and Scotland. Utilising shrubs like C. vulgaris as easy accessible and annually resolved proxies offers an interesting possibility for reconstruction of the coupled climate-ocean system at high latitudes.

Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Wilson, Rob; Briffa, Keith R.; Büntgen, Ulf; Cook, Edward R.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Davi, Nicole; Esper, Jan; Frank, David; Gunnarson, Björn E.; Hegerl, Gabi; Helama, Samuli; Klesse, Stefan; Krusic, Paul J.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Myglan, Vladimir; Osborn, Timothy J.; Zhang, Peng; Rydval, Milos; Schneider, Lea; Schurer, Andrew; Wiles, Greg; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-05-01

Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regional-scale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (May-August) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90°N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750-1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96% of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90% of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

2018-06-01

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Frank, David; Büntgen, Ulf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Pfister, Christian; Esper, Jan

2010-06-01

Future climate change will likely influence the frequency and intensity of weather extremes. As such events are by definition rare, long records are required to understand their characteristics, drivers, and consequences on ecology and society. Herein we provide a unique perspective on regional-scale temperature extremes over the past millennium, using three tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from higher elevations in the European Alps. We verify the tree-ring-based extremes using documentary evidences from Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and Central Europe that allowed the identification of 44 summer extremes over the 1550-2003 period. These events include cold temperatures in 1579, 1628, 1675, and 1816, as well as warm ones in 1811 and 2003. Prior to 1550, we provide new evidence for cold (e.g., 1068 and 1258) and warm (e.g., 1333) summers derived from the combined MXD records and thus help to characterize high-frequency temperature variability during medieval times. Spatial coherence of the reconstructed extremes is found over Switzerland, with most signatures even extending across Central Europe. We discuss potential limitations of the tree-ring and documentary archives, including the ( i) ability of MXD to particularly capture extremely warm temperatures, ( ii) methodological identification and relative definition of extremes, and ( iii) placement of those events in the millennium-long context of low-frequency climate change.

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-02-01

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over South China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over North China and Northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitationmore » (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming, but the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale.« less

An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Chaoyang; Chen, Jing M.; Pumpanen, Jukka

2012-04-26

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 andmore » 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.« less

Response of sunshine bass (Morone chrysops x M. saxatilis) to digestible protein/dietary lipid density and ration size at summer culture temperatures in the Southern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature and ammonia levels often increase dramatically in ponds during summer production of sunshine bass and summer temperatures are projected to increase in the Southern US. Extended periods of high ammonia result in fish stress, disease, mortality and significant loss of feeding days as pro...

Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions

PubMed Central

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2014-01-01

A statistical analysis reveals projections of consistently larger increases in the highest percentiles of summer and winter temperature maxima and minima versus the respective lowest percentiles, resulting in a wider range of temperature extremes in the future. These asymmetric changes in tail distributions of temperature appear robust when explored through 14 CMIP5 climate models and three reanalysis datasets. Asymmetry of projected increases in temperature extremes generalizes widely. Magnitude of the projected asymmetry depends significantly on region, season, land-ocean contrast, and climate model variability as well as whether the extremes of consideration are seasonal minima or maxima events. An assessment of potential physical mechanisms provides support for asymmetric tail increases and hence wider temperature extremes ranges, especially for northern winter extremes. These results offer statistically grounded perspectives on projected changes in the IPCC-recommended extremes indices relevant for impacts and adaptation studies. PMID:25073751

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

2015-01-01

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

Sea ice and oceanic processes on the Ross Sea continental shelf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobs, S. S.; Comiso, J. C.

1989-01-01

The spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic sea ice concentrations on the Ross Sea continental shelf have been investigated in relation to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. Sea ice data were derived from Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperatures from 1979-1986. Ice cover over the shelf was persistently lower than above the adjacent deep ocean, averaging 86 percent during winter with little month-to-month of interannual variability. The large spring Ross Sea polynya on the western shelf results in a longer period of summer insolation, greater surface layer heat storage, and later ice formation in that region the following autumn.

Estimation of austral summer net community production in the Amundsen Sea: Self-organizing map analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.; Hahm, D.; Lee, D. G.; Rhee, T. S.; Kim, H. C.

2014-12-01

The Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, has been known for one of the most susceptible region to the current climate change such as sea ice melting and sea surface temperature change. In the Southern Ocean, a predominant amount of primary production is occurring in the continental shelf region. Phytoplankton blooms take place during the austral summer due to the limited sunlit and sea ice cover. Thus, quantifying the variation of summer season net community production (NCP) in the Amundsen Sea is essential to analyze the influence of climate change to the variation of biogeochemical cycle in the Southern Ocean. During the past three years of 2011, 2012 and 2014 in austral summer, we have conducted underway observations of ΔO2/Ar and derived NCP of the Amundsen Sea. Despite the importance of NCP for understanding biological carbon cycle of the ocean, the observations are rather limited to see the spatio-temporal variation in the Amundsen Sea. Therefore, we applied self-organizing map (SOM) analysis to expand our observed data sets and estimate the NCP during the summer season. SOM analysis, a type of artificial neural network, has been proved to be a useful method for extracting and classifying features in geoscience. In oceanography, SOM has applied for the analysis of various properties of the seawater such as sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration, pCO2, and NCP. Especially it is useful to expand a spatial coverage of direct measurements or to estimate properties whose satellite observations are technically or spatially limited. In this study, we estimate summer season NCP and find a variables set which optimally delineates the NCP variation in the Amundsen Sea as well. Moreover, we attempt to analyze the interannual variation of the Amundsen Sea NCP by taking climatological factors into account for the SOM analysis.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.

PubMed

Palmquist, Kyle A; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

2016-09-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Speciated mercury at marine, coastal, and inland sites in New England - Part 2: Relationships with atmospheric physical parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, H.; Talbot, R.; Hegarty, J.; Koermer, J.

2011-10-01

Long-term continuous measurements of gaseous elemental mercury (Hgo), reactive gaseous mercury (RGM), and particulate phase mercury (Hgp) were conducted at coastal (Thompson Farm, denoted as TF), marine (Appledore Island, denoted as AI), and elevated inland (Pac Monadnock, denoted as PM) monitoring sites of the AIRMAP Observing Network. Diurnal, seasonal, annual, and interannual variability in Hgo, RGM, and Hgp from the three distinctly different environments were characterized and compared in Part 1. Here in Part 2 relationships between speciated mercury (i.e., Hgo, RGM, and Hgp) and climate variables (e.g., temperature, wind speed, humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation) were examined. The best point-to-point correlations were found between Hgo and temperature in summer at TF and spring at PM, but there was no similar correlation at AI. Subsets of data demonstrated regional impacts of episodic dynamic processes such as strong cyclonic systems on ambient levels of Hgo at all three sites, possibly through enhanced oceanic evasion of Hgo. A tendency of higher levels of RGM and Hgp was identified in spring and summer under sunny conditions in all environments. Specifically, the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentile mixing ratios of RGM and Hgp increased with stronger solar radiation at both the coastal and marine sites. These metrics decreased with increasing wind speed at AI indicating enhanced loss of RGM and Hgp through deposition. RGM and Hgp levels correlated with temperature positively in spring, summer and fall at the coastal and marine locations. In the coastal region relationships between RGM and relative humidity suggested a clear decreasing tendency in all metrics from <40% to 100% relative humidity in all seasons especially in spring, compared to less variability in the marine environment. The effect of precipitation on RGM at coastal and marine locations was similar. At the coastal site, RGM levels were a factor of 3-4 higher under dry conditions than rainy conditions in all seasons. In winter RGM mixing ratios appeared to be mostly above the limit of detection (LOD) during snowfalls suggesting less scavenging efficiency of snow. Mixing ratios of Hgp at the coastal and marine sites remained above the LOD under rainy conditions. Precipitation had negligible impact on the magnitude and pattern of diurnal variation of Hgp in all seasons in the marine environment.

Teasing apart the effects of natural and constructed green ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Summer low flows and stream temperature maxima are key drivers affecting the sustainability of fish populations. Thus, it is critical to understand both the natural templates of spatiotemporal variability, how these are shifting due to anthropogenic influences of development and climate change, and how these impacts can be moderated by natural and constructed green infrastructure. Low flow statistics of New England streams have been characterized using a combination of regression equations to describe long-term averages as a function of indicators of hydrologic regime (rain- versus snow-dominated), precipitation, evapotranspiration or temperature, surface water storage, baseflow recession rates, and impervious cover. Difference equations have been constructed to describe interannual variation in low flow as a function of changing air temperature, precipitation, and ocean-atmospheric teleconnection indices. Spatial statistical network models have been applied to explore fine-scale variability of thermal regimes along stream networks in New England as a function of variables describing natural and altered energy inputs, groundwater contributions, and retention time. Low flows exacerbate temperature impacts by reducing thermal inertia of streams to energy inputs. Based on these models, we can construct scenarios of fish habitat suitability using current and projected future climate and the potential for preservation and restoration of historic habitat regimes th

Projections of Future Summer Weather in Seoul and Their Impacts on Urban Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. O.; Kim, J. H.; Yun, J. I.

2015-12-01

Climate departure from the past variability was projected to start in 2042 for Seoul. In order to understand the implication of climate departure in Seoul for urban agriculture, we evaluated the daily temperature for the June-September period from 2041 to 2070, which were projected by the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These data were analyzed with respect to climate extremes and their effects on growth of hot pepper (Capsicum annuum), one of the major crops in urban farming. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 2041-2070 approached to the 90th percentile in the past 30 years (1951- 1980). However, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and tropical nights appeared to exceed the past variability. While the departure of mean temperature might begin in or after 2040, the climate departure in the sense of extreme weather events seems already in progress. When the climate scenario data were applied to the growth and development of hot pepper, the departures of both planting date and harvest date are expected to follow those of temperature. However, the maximum duration for hot pepper cultivation, which is the number of days between the first planting and the last harvest, seems to have already deviated from the past variability.

Temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution: processing--part 2.

PubMed

Koelkebeck, K W; Patterson, P H; Anderson, K E; Darre, M J; Carey, J B; Ahn, D U; Ernst, R A; Kuney, D R; Jones, D

2008-06-01

The Egg Safety Action Plan released in 1999 raised questions concerning egg temperature used in the risk assessment model. Therefore, a national study was initiated to determine the internal and external temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution. Researchers gathered data from commercial egg production, shell egg processing, and distribution facilities. The experimental design was a mixed model with 2 random effects for season and geographic region and a fixed effect for operation type (inline or offline). For this report, internal and external egg temperature data were recorded at specific points during shell egg processing in the winter and summer months. In addition, internal egg temperatures were recorded in pre- and postshell egg processing cooler areas. There was a significant season x geographic region interaction (P < 0.05) for both surface and internal temperatures. Egg temperatures were lower in the winter vs. summer, but eggs gained in temperature from the accumulator to the postshell egg processing cooler. During shell egg processing, summer egg surface and internal temperatures were greater (P < 0.05) than during the winter. When examining the effect of shell egg processing time and conditions, it was found that 2.4 and 3.8 degrees C were added to egg surface temperatures, and 3.3 and 6.0 degrees C were added to internal temperatures in the summer and winter, respectively. Internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the preshell egg processing cooler area during the summer vs. winter, and internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the summer when eggs were (3/4) cool (temperature change required to meet USDA-Agricultural Marketing Service storage regulation of 7.2 degrees C) in the postshell egg processing area. However, the cooling rate was not different (P > 0.05) for eggs in the postshell egg processing cooler area in the summer vs. winter. Therefore, these data suggest that season of year and geographic location can affect the temperature of eggs during shell egg processing and should be a component in future assessments of egg safety.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling of re-analysis data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, Ricardo; Martín-Torres, Javier

2018-03-01

We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the climate of the Kerguelen Islands (49° S, 69° E) and investigate its inter-annual variability. Here, we have dynamically downscaled 30 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over these islands at 3-km horizontal resolution. The model output is found to agree well with the station and radiosonde data at the Port-aux-Français station, the only location in the islands for which observational data is available. An analysis of the seasonal mean WRF data showed a general increase in precipitation and decrease in temperature with elevation. The largest seasonal rainfall amounts occur at the highest elevations of the Cook Ice Cap in winter where the summer mean temperature is around 0 °C. Five modes of variability are considered: conventional and Modoki El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Subtropical IOD (SIOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is concluded that a key mechanism by which these modes impact the local climate is through interaction with the diurnal cycle in particular in the summer season when it has a larger magnitude. One of the most affected regions is the area just to the east of the Cook Ice Cap extending into the lower elevations between the Gallieni and Courbet Peninsulas. The WRF simulation shows that despite the small annual variability, the atmospheric flow in the Kerguelen Islands is rather complex which may also be the case for the other islands located in the Southern Hemisphere at similar latitudes.

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,

2015-01-01

Southwestern Asia, defined here as the domain bounded by 20°–40°N and 40°–70°E, which includes the nations of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a water-stressed and semiarid region that receives roughly 75% of its annual rainfall during November–April. The November–April climate of southwestern Asia is strongly influenced by tropical Indo-Pacific variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, much of which can be attributed to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The influences of lower-frequency SST variability on southwestern Asia climate during November–April Pacific decadal SST (PDSST) variability and the long-term trend in SST (LTSST) is examined. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group forced global atmospheric climate models with PDSST and LTSST patterns, identified using empirical orthogonal functions, to show the steady atmospheric response to these modes of decadal to multidecadal SST variability. During November–April, LTSST forces an anticyclone over southwestern Asia, which results in reduced precipitation and increases in surface temperature. The precipitation and tropospheric circulation influences of LTSST are corroborated by independent observed precipitation and circulation datasets during 1901–2004. The decadal variations of southwestern Asia precipitation may be forced by PDSST variability, with two of the three models indicating that the cold phase of PDSST forces an anticyclone and precipitation reductions. However, there are intermodel circulation variations to PDSST that influence subregional precipitation patterns over the Middle East, southwestern Asia, and subtropical Asia. Changes in wintertime temperature and precipitation over southwestern Asia forced by LTSST and PDSST imply important changes to the land surface hydrology during the spring and summer.

Tying Variability in Summertime North American Extreme Weather Regimes to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A. M.; Randall, D. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations are known to be a source of extratropical variability. We show that subseasonal variability in observed North American epidemiologically significant regional extreme weather regimes is teleconnected to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO)—a complex tropical weather system that is active during the northern summer and has a 30-50 day timescale. The dynamics of the teleconnection are examined. We also find that interannual variability of the tropical mean-state can modulate the teleconnection. Our results suggest that the BSISO may enable subseasonal to seasonal predictions of North American summertime weather extremes.

Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration under a historical and future climate scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qin; Yan, Changrong; Ju, Hui; Garré, Sarah

2018-04-01

Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the most critical problems faced by the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), which is a region in which there is an over-exploitation of groundwater and where future warmer and drought conditions might intensify crop water demand. In this study, the spatiotemporal patterns of ET0 and primary driving meteorological variables were investigated based on a historical and RCP 8.5 scenario daily data set from 40 weather stations over the 3H Plain using linear regression, spline interpolation method, a partial derivative analysis, and multivariate regression. The results indicated a negative trend in all the analysed periods (except spring) of the past 54 years of which only summer and the entire year were statistically significant ( p < 0.01) with slopes of -1.09 and -1.29 mm a-1, respectively. In contrast, a positive trend was observed in all four seasons and the entire year under the RCP 8.5 scenario, with the biggest increment equal to 1.36 mm a-1 in summer and an annual increment of 3.37 mm a-1. The spatial patterns of the seasonal and annual ET0 exhibited the lowest values in southeastern regions and the highest values in northeastern parts of Shandong Province, probably because of the combined effects of various meteorological variables over the past 54 years. Relative humidity (RH) together with solar radiation (RS) were detected to be the main climatic factors controlling the reduction of ET0 in summer, autumn, and the entire year on the 3H Plain. ET0 in spring was mainly sensitive to changes in RS and RH, whereas ET0 in winter was most sensitive to changes in wind speed (WS) and decreased due to declining RH. Under the future RCP 8.5 scenario, the annual ET0 distribution displays a rich spatial structure with a clear northeast-west gradient and an area with low values in the southern regions, which is similarly detected in spring and summer. The most sensitive and primary controlling variables with respect to the increment of future ET0 are in the first place RS and then mean temperature in spring, while they turn to be mean temperature and then RS in summer. In autumn, future ET0 is most sensitive to RH changes. WS and RH are the controlling variables for ET0 in winter. Annual future ET0 is most sensitive to RH changes, and accordingly, RS is responsible for the predicted increment of the annual ET0. Better understanding of current and future spatiotemporal patterns of ET0 and of the regional response of ET0 to climate change can contribute to the establishment of a policy to realize a more efficient use of water resources and a sustainable agricultural production in the 3H Plain.

Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years

DOE PAGES

Mueller, Brigitte; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W.

2016-04-07

We project that within the next two decades, half of the world's population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. These hot summer frequency projections are based on adjusted RCP4.5 and 8.5 temperature projections, where the adjustments are performed with scaling factors determined by regularized optimal fingerprinting analyzesmore » that compare historical model simulations with observations over the period 1950-2012. A temperature reconstruction technique is then used to simulate a multitude of possible past and future temperature evolutions, from which the probability of a hot summer is determined for each region, with a hot summer being defined as the historically warmest summer on record in that region. Probabilities with and without external forcing show that hot summers are now about ten times more likely (fraction of attributable risk 0.9) in many regions of the world than they would have been in the absence of past greenhouse gas increases. In conclusion, the adjusted future projections suggest that the Mediterranean, Sahara, large parts of Asia and the Western US and Canada will be among the first regions for which hot summers will become the norm (i.e. occur on average every other year), and that this will occur within the next 1-2 decades.« less

Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Brigitte; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W.

2016-04-01

We project that within the next two decades, half of the world’s population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. These hot summer frequency projections are based on adjusted RCP4.5 and 8.5 temperature projections, where the adjustments are performed with scaling factors determined by regularized optimal fingerprinting analyzes that compare historical model simulations with observations over the period 1950-2012. A temperature reconstruction technique is then used to simulate a multitude of possible past and future temperature evolutions, from which the probability of a hot summer is determined for each region, with a hot summer being defined as the historically warmest summer on record in that region. Probabilities with and without external forcing show that hot summers are now about ten times more likely (fraction of attributable risk 0.9) in many regions of the world than they would have been in the absence of past greenhouse gas increases. The adjusted future projections suggest that the Mediterranean, Sahara, large parts of Asia and the Western US and Canada will be among the first regions for which hot summers will become the norm (i.e. occur on average every other year), and that this will occur within the next 1-2 decades.

Should we care about diurnal temperatures when calculating the precipitation isotope thermometer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachon, R.; Kloeckner, D.

2008-12-01

Long records of the concentrations of stable isotopes of precipitation (SIPs) have long been used as proxies for regional and global climates for periods when meteorological measurements were not made. SIPs' longstanding correlation to local surface temperatures (in many locations) and molecular thermal dynamics have lead to many interpretations of variability in SIPs to be changes in local temperatures. In order to create accurate temperature-SIP transfer functions one needs to link modern SIP concentrations to temperatures of when precipitation happened. A well-sited example of complexities in the temperature-SIP relationships - For simplicity one may assume that annual precipitation occurred at the same time of year throughout a long SIP archive, however, it is possible that the timing of precipitation actually shifted from summer to winter months. If the temperature difference between the seasons is large the SIP archive could be wrongly interpreted as a several degree cooling in average annual temperatures. Temperature changes similar in magnitude to seasonal fluctuations are also observed throughout a given day. What would happen if precipitation shifted from mid-afternoon to nighttime events? This line of thinking implies that diurnal effects plausibly should be considered when calculating SIP-transfer functions. This is particularly convincing when precipitation for a region is powered by middle of the day (summer) heat causing convective precipitation or evening cooling increasing relative humidities near the land's surface. This study examines both theoretical and observed (5 locations within North America) surface temperatures at the time of precipitation throughout a day and estimates diurnal effects on SIP-transfer functions. Ultimately, one must ask, how high does condensation form, and what are daily temperature patterns at those heights?

Forcing and Responses of the Surface Energy Budget at Summit, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Nathaniel B.

Energy exchange at the Greenland Ice Sheet surface governs surface temperature variability, a factor critical for representing increasing surface melt extent, which portends a rise in global sea level. A comprehensive set of cloud, tropospheric, near-surface and sub-surface measurements at Summit Station is utilized to determine the driving forces and subsequent responses of the surface energy budget (SEB). This budget includes radiative, turbulent, and ground heat fluxes, and ultimately controls the evolution of surface temperature. At Summit Station, clouds radiatively warm the surface in all months with an annual average cloud radiative forcing value of 33 W m -2, largely driven by the occurrence of liquid-bearing clouds. The magnitude of the surface temperature response is dependent on how turbulent and ground heat fluxes modulate changes to radiative forcing. Relationships between forcing terms and responding surface fluxes show that changes in the upwelling longwave radiation compensate for 65-85% (50- 60%) of the total change in radiative forcing in the winter (summer). The ground heat flux is the second largest response term (16% annually), especially during winter. Throughout the annual cycle, the sensible heat flux response is comparatively constant (9%) and latent heat flux response is only 1.5%, becoming more of a factor in modulating surface temperature responses during the summer. Combining annual cycles of these responses with cloud radiative forcing results, clouds warm the surface by an estimated 7.8°C annually. A reanalysis product (ERA-I), operational model (CFSv2), and climate model (CESM) are evaluated utilizing the comprehensive set of SEB observations and process-based relationships. Annually, surface temperatures in each model are warmer than observed with overall poor representation of the coldest surface temperatures. Process-based relationships between different SEB flux terms offer insight into how well a modeling framework represents physical processes and the ability to distinguish errors in forcing versus those in physical representation. Such relationships convey that all three models underestimate the response of surface temperatures to changes in radiative forcing. These results provide a method to expose model deficiencies and indicate the importance of representing surface, sub-surface and boundary-layer processes when portraying cloud impacts on surface temperature variability.

Habitat Suitability Model for the Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota.

PubMed

Johnson, T L; Bjork, J K H; Neitzel, D F; Dorr, F M; Schiffman, E K; Eisen, R J

2016-05-01

Ixodes scapularis Say, the black-legged tick, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of several pathogens causing human diseases including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Over the past two decades, I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence as well as geographic distribution. Lyme disease exists in two major foci in the United States, one encompassing northeastern states and the other in the Upper Midwest. Minnesota represents a state with an appreciable increase in counties reporting I. scapularis-borne illnesses, suggesting geographic expansion of vector populations in recent years. Recent tick distribution records support this assumption. Here, we used those records to create a fine resolution, subcounty-level distribution model for I. scapularis using variable response curves in addition to tests of variable importance. The model identified 19% of Minnesota as potentially suitable for establishment of the tick and indicated with high accuracy (AUC = 0.863) that the distribution is driven by land cover type, summer precipitation, maximum summer temperatures, and annual temperature variation. We provide updated records of established populations near the northwestern species range limit and present a model that increases our understanding of the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Long-Term Variability of Satellite Lake Surface Water Temperatures in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierach, M. M.; Matsumoto, K.; Holt, B.; McKinney, P. J.; Tokos, K.

2014-12-01

The Great Lakes are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth that approximately 37 million people depend upon for fresh drinking water, food, flood and drought mitigation, and natural resources that support industry, jobs, shipping and tourism. Recent reports have stated (e.g., the National Climate Assessment) that climate change can impact and exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes, including changes in the range and distribution of certain fish species, increased invasive species and harmful algal blooms, declining beach health, and lengthened commercial navigation season. In this study, we will examine the impact of climate change on the Laurentian Great Lakes through investigation of long-term lake surface water temperatures (LSWT). We will use the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate: Lake Surface Water Temperature & Ice Cover (ARC-Lake) product over the period 1995-2012 to investigate individual and interlake variability. Specifically, we will quantify the seasonal amplitude of LSWTs, the first and last appearances of the 4°C isotherm (i.e., an important identifier of the seasonal evolution of the lakes denoting winter and summer stratification), and interpret these quantities in the context of global interannual climate variability such as ENSO.

Solar and atmospheric forcing on mountain lakes.

PubMed

Luoto, Tomi P; Nevalainen, Liisa

2016-10-01

We investigated the influence of long-term external forcing on aquatic communities in Alpine lakes. Fossil microcrustacean (Cladocera) and macrobenthos (Chironomidae) community variability in four Austrian high-altitude lakes, determined as ultra-sensitive to climate change, were compared against records of air temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar forcing over the past ~400years. Summer temperature variability affected both aquatic invertebrate groups in all study sites. The influence of NAO and solar forcing on aquatic invertebrates was also significant in the lakes except in the less transparent lake known to have remained uniformly cold during the past centuries due to summertime snowmelt input. The results suggest that external forcing plays an important role in these pristine ecosystems through their impacts on limnology of the lakes. Not only does the air temperature variability influence the communities but also larger-scale external factors related to atmospheric circulation patterns and solar activity cause long-term changes in high-altitude aquatic ecosystems, through their connections to hydroclimatic conditions and light environment. These findings are important in the assessment of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems and in greater understanding of the consequences of external forcing on lake ontogeny. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Hünicke, Birgit; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Studies based on sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer Monsoon. We examine this relationship directly in an eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by atmospheric reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyse the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analysis reveals high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r = 0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r = -0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the Monsoon is small. We find an atmospheric circulation pattern different from the one that drives the Monsoon as the main modulator of the upwelling variability. In spite of this, the patterns of temperature anomalies that are either linked to Arabian Sea upwelling or to the Monsoon are spatially quite similar, although the physical mechanisms of these links are different. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modelled upwelling in the Arabian Sea.

Transport and thermohaline variability in Barrow Canyon on the Northeastern Chukchi Sea Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weingartner, Thomas J.; Potter, Rachel A.; Stoudt, Chase A.; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.; Statscewich, Hank; Winsor, Peter R.; Mudge, Todd D.; Borg, Keath

2017-05-01

We used a 5 year time series of transport, temperature, and salinity from moorings at the head of Barrow Canyon to describe seasonal variations and construct a 37 year transport hindcast. The latter was developed from summer/winter regressions of transport against Bering-Chukchi winds. Seasonally, the regressions differ due to baroclinicity, stratification, spatial, and seasonal variations in winds and/or the surface drag coefficients. The climatological annual cycle consists of summer downcanyon (positive and toward the Arctic Ocean) transport of ˜0.45 Sv of warm, freshwaters; fall (October-December) upcanyon transport of ˜-0.1 Sv of cooler, saltier waters; and negligible net winter (January-April) mass transport when shelf waters are saline and near-freezing. Fall upcanyon transports may modulate shelf freezeup, and negligible winter transports could influence winter water properties. Transport variability is largest in fall and winter. Daily transport probability density functions are negatively skewed in all seasons and seasonal variations in kurtosis are a function of transport event durations. The latter may have consequences for shelf-basin exchanges. The climatology implies that the Chukchi shelf circulation reorganizes annually: in summer ˜40% of the summer Bering Strait inflow leaves the shelf via Barrow Canyon, but from fall through winter all of it exits via the western Chukchi or Central Channel. We estimate a mean transport of ˜0.2 Sv; ˜50% less than estimates at the mouth of the canyon. Transport discrepancies may be due to inflows from the Beaufort shelf and the Chukchi shelfbreak, with the latter entering the western side of the canyon.

Monitoring Mountain Meteorology without Much Money (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, J. D.

2009-12-01

Mountains are the water towers of the world, storing winter precipitation in the form of snow until summer, when it can be used for agriculture and cities. However, mountain weather is highly variable, and measurements are sparsely distributed. In order adequately sample snow and climate variables in complex terrain, we need as many measurements as possible. This means that instruments must be inexpensive and relatively simple to deploy. Here, we demonstrate how dime-sized temperature sensors developed for the refrigeration industry can be used to monitor air temperature (using evergreen trees as radiation shields) and snow cover duration (using the diurnal cycle in near-surface soil temperature). Together, these measurements can be used to recreate accumulated snow water equivalent over the prior year. We also demonstrate how buckets of water may be placed under networked acoustic snow depth sensors to provide an index of daily evaporation rates at SNOTEL stations. (a) Temperature sensor sealed for deployment in the soil. (b) Launching a temperature sensor into a tree. (c) Pulley system to keep sensor above the snow. (a) Photo of bucket underneath acoustic snow depth sensor. (b) Water depth in the bucket as calculated by the snow depth sensor and by a pressure sensor inside the bucket.

Comparison of Model and Observed Regional Temperature Changes During the Past 40 Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Miller, James R.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto A.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sheth, Sukeshi

1999-01-01

Results are presented for six simulations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global atmosphere-ocean model for the years 1950 to 2099. There are two control simulations with constant 1950 atmospheric composition from different initial states, two GHG experiments with observed greenhouse gases up to 1990 and compounded .5% CO2 annual increases thereafter, and two GHG+SO4 experiments with the same varying greenhouse gases plus varying tropospheric sulfate aerosols. Surface air temperature trends in the two GHG experiments are compared between themselves and with the observed temperature record from 1960 and 1998. All comparisons show high positive spatial correlation in the northern hemisphere except in summer when the greenhouse signal is weakest. The GHG+SO4 experiments show weaker correlations. In the southern hemisphere, correlations are either weak or negative which in part are due to the model's unrealistic interannual variability of southern sea ice cover. The model results imply that temperature changes due to forcing by increased greenhouse gases have risen above the level of regional interannual temperature variability in the northern hemisphere over the past 40 years. This period is thus an important test of reliability of coupled climate models.

Response of Marine Taxa to Climate Variability in the Southeast U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morley, J. W.; Pinsky, M. L.; Batt, R. D.

2016-02-01

Climate change has led to large-scale redistributions of marine taxa in many coastal regions around North America. Specifically, marine populations respond to spatial shifts in their preferred temperature conditions, or thermal envelope, as they shift across a seascape. The influence of climate change on the coastal fisheries of the southeast U.S. has been largely unexplored. We analyzed 25 years of trawl survey data (1990-2014) from the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP), which samples the nearshore continental shelf of the South Atlantic Bight during spring, summer, and fall. Bottom temperatures exhibited no trend over this period and the assemblage showed no net shift north or south. However, taxa distributions were sensitive to interannual temperature variation. Annual projections of taxa thermal envelopes explained variation in centroid location for many species, particularly during spring. Accordingly, long-term latitudinal shifts in taxa-specific thermal envelopes, which trended to the north or south depending on the species, were highly correlated with centroid shifts during spring. One explanation for our results is that the phenology of taxa migration is adaptable to temperature variation. In particular, the inshore-offshore movement of species during spring and fall appears quite responsive to interannual temperature variability.

Warming set stage for deadly heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-04-01

In the summer of 2010, soaring temperatures and widespread forest fires ravaged western Russia, killing 55,000 and causing $15 billion in economic losses. In the wake of the record-setting heat wave, two studies sought to identify the contribution that human activities made to the event. One showed that temperatures seen during the deadly heat wave fell within the bounds of natural variability, while another attributed the heat wave to human activity, arguing that anthropogenic warming increased the chance of record-breaking temperatures occurring. Merging the stances of both studies, Otto et al. sought to show that while human contributions to climate change did not necessarily cause the deadly heat wave, they did play a role in setting the stage for its occurrence. Using an ensemble of climate simulations, the authors assessed the expected magnitude and frequency of an event like the 2010 heat wave under both 1960s and 2000s environmental conditions. The authors found that although the average temperature in July 2010 was 5°C higher than the average July temperature from the past half decade, the deadly heat wave was within the natural variability of 1960s, as well as 2000s, climate conditions

May–June Maximum Temperature Reconstruction from Mean Earlywood Density in North Central China and Its Linkages to the Summer Monsoon Activities

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Yuan, Yujiang

2014-01-01

Cores of Pinus tabulaformis from Tianshui were subjected to densitometric analysis to obtain mean earlywood density data. Climate response analysis indicates that May–June maximum temperature is the main factor limiting the mean earlywood density (EWD) of Chinese pine trees in the Shimen Mountains. Based on the EWD chronology, we have reconstructed May–June maximum temperature 1666 to 2008 for Tianshui, north central China. The reconstruction explains 40.1% of the actual temperature variance during the common period 1953–2008. The temperature reconstruction is representative of temperature conditions over a large area to the southeast and northwest of the sampling site. Preliminary analysis of links between large-scale climatic variation and the temperature reconstruction shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring temperature and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the region. It is thus revealed that the mean earlywood density chronology of Pinus tabulaformis has enough potential to reconstruct the temperature variability further into the past. PMID:25207554

Land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the southeastern Atlantic: interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoming; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

2018-02-01

Land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the southeastern South Atlantic and their connections to interannual variability are examined using a regional climate model coupled with an intermediate-level ocean model. In austral summer, zonal displacements of the South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) can induce variations of mixed-layer currents in the Benguela upwelling region through surface wind stress curl anomalies near the Namibian coast, and an eastward shifted SASH is related to the first Pacific-South American mode. When the SASH is meridionally displaced, mixed layer vertically-integrated Ekman transport anomalies are mainly a response to the change of alongshore surface wind stress. The latitudinal shift of the SASH tends to dampen the anomalous alongshore wind by modulating the land-sea thermal contrast, while opposed by oceanic diffusion. Although the position of the SASH is closely linked to the phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) in austral summer, an overall relationship between Benguela upwelling strength and ENSO or SAM is absent. During austral winter, variations of the mixed layer Ekman transport in the Benguela upwelling region are connected to the strength of the SASH through its impact on both coastal wind stress curl and alongshore surface wind stress. Compared with austral summer, low-level cloud cover change plays a more important role. Although wintertime sea surface temperature fluctuations in the equatorial Atlantic are strong and may act to influence variability over the northern Benguela area, the surface heat budget analysis suggests that local air-sea interactions dominate.

Hydrographic variability in Bahia De La Paz, B. C. S, Mexico, during the 1997 1998 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeso-Nieblas, M.; Shirasago, B.; Sánchez-Velasco, L.; Gaviño-Rodriguez, J. H.

2004-03-01

Bahía de La Paz is an integral part of the coast of the Gulf of California and is the biggest bay of the eastern side of the Baja California Peninsula. Dynamic forcing and water interchange occur between the bay and the gulf through two different openings, the main and deep North Mouth with 350-m depth and the shallow San Lorenzo Channel with an average depth of 10 m. To determine the oceanographic conditions before and during El Niño 1997-1998 in Bahia de La Paz, CTD data were collected in four surveys aboard the research yacht CICIMAR XV during July 1996, March 1997, July 1997, and March 1998. The results revealed important variations in the hydrographic structure of the bay, both in space and time. The two summers had a complete absence of the mixed layer with a sharper thermocline during summer 1996 (0.25°C/m) than in summer 1997 (0.21°C/m). Additionally, the entire water column experienced an average temperature increase from 1.5°C at the surface with a maximum of 4.2°C to 28 m and around 1°C between 100 and 350 m, showing a halocline structure in summer 1997. At the end of the winters of 1997 and 1998, a 50-m mixed layer was detected, with higher average temperatures of 2.3°C in winter 1998. The temperature differences decreased with depth and were the same at 340 m with no traces of the halocline in winter 1998. The increase of temperature observed in the study area during the periods affected by El Niño 1997-1998 resulted in a sinking of the thermocline and isotherms, showing the strongest effect of this warming (>4°C) in the surface layer to 70 m during summer 1997. The stratification increased during the El Niño and was more evident in the period of small stratification in the region (winter) as showed by the φ parameter with values of 45 J/m3 in 1998 and 29 J/m3 in 1997, whereas during the strong stratification period (summer) the difference was small, with values of 137 J/m3 in 1996 and 139 J/m3 in 1997. In periods not affected by El Niño, the Gulf of California and the Subtropical Subsurface Waters are usually present in the bay, but during this episode their presence varies in space. Additionally, Surface Equatorial Water was found in the bay, mainly at the end of winter 1998 and with some traces in summer 1997.

Evolution of ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) parameters in the cusp region related to ion upflow events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kervalishvili, Guram; Lühr, Hermann

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the relationships of various IT parameters with the intensity of vertical ion flow. Our study area is the ionospheric cusp region in the northern hemisphere. The approach uses superposed epoch analysis (SEA) method, centered alternately on peaks of the three different variables: neutral density enhancement, vertical plasma flow, and electron temperature. Further parameters included are large-scale field-aligned currents (LSFACs) and thermospheric zonal wind velocity profiles over magnetic latitude (MLat), which are centered at the event time and location. The dependence on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) By component orientation and the local (Lloyd) season is of particular interest. Our investigations are based on CHAMP and DMSP (F13 and F15) satellite observations and the OMNI online database collected during the years 2002-2007. The three Lloyd seasons of 130 days each are defined as follows: local winter (1 January ± 65 days), combined equinoxes (1 April and 1 October ± 32 days), and local summer (1 July ± 65 days). A period of 130 days corresponds to the time needed by CHAMP to sample all local times. The SEA MLat profiles with respect to neutral density enhancement and vertical plasma flow peaks show no significant but only slight (decreasing towards local summer) seasonal variations for both IMF By orientations. The latitude profiles of median LSFACs show a clear dependence on the IMF By orientation. As expected, the maximum and minimum values of LSFAC amplitudes are increasing towards local summer for both IMF By signs. With respect to zero epoch latitude, FAC peaks appear equatorward (negative MLat) related to Region 1 (R1) and poleward (positive MLat) to Region 0 (R0) FACs. However, there is an imbalance between the amplitudes of LSFACs, depending on the current latitude. R1 currents are systematically stronger than R0 FACs. A somewhat different distribution of density enhancements and large-scale FACs emerges when the SEA is centered on electron temperature peaks. As expected, the background electron temperature increases towards summer and shows no dependence on the IMF By orientation. In contrast to the previous sorting the mass density enhancement shows a dependence on the IMF By sign and increases towards local summer in case of IMF By<0. As before LSFAC peak values are increasing towards local summer, but there is no clear latitudinal profile of upward and downward FACs. We think that intense precipitation of soft electrons (<100 eV) cause the electron temperature enhancement in the cusp region. But there is no direct dependence on the FAC intensity. But for neutral density enhancement and vertical plasma flow the combination of Joule heating and soft electron precipitation, causing electron temperature and conductivity enhancements, are required.

Mean state densities, temperatures and winds during the MAC/SINE and MAC/EPSILON campaigns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luebken, F.-J.; Von Zahn, U.; Manson, A.; Meek, C.; Hoppe, U.-P.; Schmidlin, F. J.

1990-01-01

Two field campaigns were conducted, primarily in northern Norway, in the summer and late autumn of 1987; these yielded a total of 41 in situ temperature profiles and 67 in situ wind profiles. Simultaneously, ground-based measurements were conducted of OH temperatures and sodium lidar temperatures for 85 and 104 hours, respectively. The summer campaign's mean temperature profile exhibited major deviations from the CIRA (1986) reference atmosphere; the differences between this model and the observations are less pronounced in the autumn. Both the summer and autumn mean wind profiles were in general agreement with the CIRA model.

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

New insights into the ground thermal regime of talus slopes with permafrost below the timberline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwindt, Daniel; Kneisel, Christof

2013-04-01

In the central Alps permafrost can be expected above 2400 m a.s.l., at altitudes where mean annual air temperatures are below -1° C. However, isolated permafrost occurrences are present in north-exposed talus slopes, far below the timberline, where mean annual air temperatures are positive. Driving factors are assumed to be a low income of solar radiation, a thick organic layer with high insulation capacities as well as the thermally induced chimney effect (Wakonigg, 1996). Investigated are three talus slopes with permafrost in the Swiss Alps that differ with regard to elevation level, talus material, humus characteristics and vegetation composition as well as the mean annual air temperatures. Aim is to achieve a deeper understanding of the factors determining the site-specific thermal regime, as well as the spatially limited and temporally highly variable permafrost occurrences in vegetated talus slopes. Focus is not solely on the question of why permafrost exists at these sites, but also why permafrost does not exist in the immediate surroundings. To detect the temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of the permafrost occurrences, electrical resistivity tomography monitoring, seismic refraction tomography monitoring, and quasi-3D ERT were applied. To determine the ground thermal regime, air-, ground surface-, and humus temperatures, as well as temperatures within vents of the chimneys were recorded. Furthermore, humus characteristics (thickness, -temperature and -moisture) were mapped in permafrost-affected slope areas and in the immediate surroundings. To test the correlation between solar radiation, permafrost distribution, and humus/vegetation composition, digital elevation models were used to calculate the income of solar radiation. The areal extent of the permafrost bodies coincide precisely with slope sections where the organic layer is thickest, a consistent moss cover is present, and where temperatures at the transition between humus layer and talus material are lowest. The interaction of factors driving the ground thermal regime turned out to be more complex than assumed with differences between the investigated sites. Besides convective heat transport of the chimney effect, conductive heat flow within the humus layer strongly influences the ground thermal regime. Supercooling of the talus material in winter and autumn is aggravated by a high thermal conductivity of the organic material under frozen and wet conditions. The preservation of permafrost is favoured by the high insulation capacity of dry organic material in summer and by a prolonged zero-curtain period of up to 3 months - driven by high water-storage capacity of the organic material - that buffers the propagation of warm temperatures into the subsurface in spring. The income of solar radiation at the foot of the slope does not state a major driving factor for the occurrence of permafrost. Variability is low between areas with and without permafrost. In fact, differences were detected upslope, below the rock-walls, with summer-values being lowest in areas above the permafrost occurrences. It must be assumed that this affects the thermal circulation of the chimney effect during summer and favours the persistence of frozen ground in spatially limited slope areas.