Theories of the price and quantity of physician services. A synthesis and critique.

PubMed

Farley, P J

1986-12-01

In the traditional neoclassical model of supply and demand, prices determine the allocation of economic resources. The difficulty in applying this model to physician services is the rationing of resources directly by physicians themselves, eliminating the allocative function of prices. Welfare consequences are appropriately judged in terms of efficiency and equity, not departures from the structural relationships implied by supply and demand. As interpreted here, both competitive theories and target-income theories of this market imply that physicians consider both their own welfare and the welfare of their patients in their decision-making. All consumer benefits and all producer costs are internalized by physicians. They consequently have an incentive to obtain the maximum possible social benefit from the resources at their disposal, to the extent that they are (implicitly) allowed to share in the resulting social gains. The distribution of gains between patients and physicians is determined by professional ethics within bounds imposed by competitive forces.

Critical Essay: Building new management theories on sound data? The case of neuroscience

PubMed Central

Lindebaum, Dirk

2015-01-01

In this critical essay, I contend that accelerating demands for novel theories in management studies imply that new methodologies and data are sometimes accepted prematurely as supply of these novel theories. This point is illustrated with reference to how neuroscience can inform management research. I propose two demand forces that foster the increased focus on neuroscience in management studies, these being (i) the direction of public research funding, and (ii) publication bias as a boost for journal impact factor. Looking at the supply side, I note that (i) the statistical power of studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (or fMRI, the ‘gold’ standard) is unacceptably low, (ii) the use of imprecise ‘motherhood’ statements, and (iii) the dismissal of ethical concerns in the formulation of management theories and practice informed by neuroscience. I then briefly outline the bad consequences of this for management theory and practice, emphasize why it is important to prevent these consequences, and offer some methodological suggestions for future research. PMID:27041766

Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics

PubMed Central

Rowcliffe, M.; Cowlishaw, G.; Alexander, J. S.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Brenya, A.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

2016-01-01

The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management. PMID:27632169

Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics.

PubMed

McNamara, J; Rowcliffe, M; Cowlishaw, G; Alexander, J S; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y; Brenya, A; Milner-Gulland, E J

2016-01-01

The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management.

Domestic and Foreign Consequences of China's Land Tenure Reform on Collective Forests

Treesearch

H. Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno; Shu-shuai Zhu

2012-01-01

Some of the long-term consequences of China’s collective forests tenure reform were projected with the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM). The reform had a positive effect on the wood supply and demand balance. By 2020 the reform led to a 14 to 36 percent decrease of China’s imports of industrial roundwood. Concurrently, the rest of the world produced less, but...

A tale of integrated regional water supply planning: Meshing socio-economic, policy, governance, and sustainability desires together

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asefa, Tirusew; Adams, Alison; Kajtezovic-Blankenship, Ivana

2014-11-01

In 1998, Tampa Bay Water, the largest wholesale water provider in South East USA with over 2.3 million customers, assumed the role of planning, developing, and operating water supply sources from six local water supply utilities through an Interlocal Agreement. Under the agreement, cities and counties served by the agency would have their water supply demands met unequivocally and share the cost of delivery and/or development of new supplies based on their consumption, allowing a more holistic approach to manage resources in the region. Consequently, the agency was able to plan and execute several components of its Long-Term Master Water Plan to meet the region's demand, as well as diversify its sources of water supply. Today, the agency manages a diverse and regionally interconnected water supply system that includes 13 wellfields, two surface water supply sources, off-site reservoir storage, a sea water desalination plant, a surface water treatment plant, and 14 pumping/booster stations. It delivers water through 390 km of large diameter pipe to 19 potable water connections. It uses state-of-the-practice computer tools to manage short and long-term operations and planning. As a result, after the agency's inception, groundwater pumpage was reduced by more than half in less than a decade-by far one of the largest cutback and smaller groundwater utilization rate compared to other utilities in Florida or elsewhere. The region was able to witness a remarkable recovery in lake and wetland water levels through the agency's use of this diverse mix of supply sources. For example, in the last three years, 45-65% of water supply came from groundwater sources, 35-45% from surface water sources and 1-9% from desalinated seawater-very different from 100% groundwater only supply just few years ago. As an "on demand" wholesale water provider, the agency forecasts water supply availability and expected water demands from seasonal to decadal time frames using a suite of forecasting tools and a structured decision-making process. This paper presents a case study of the approach taken by Tampa Bay Water to meet the region's growing water demands while satisfying other competing objectives in a sustainable fashion and documents the remarkable environmental improvement observed in the area.

CO2 Mitigation Measures of Power Sector and Its Integrated Optimization in China

PubMed Central

Dai, Pan; Chen, Guang; Zhou, Hao; Su, Meirong; Bao, Haixia

2012-01-01

Power sector is responsible for about 40% of the total CO2 emissions in the world and plays a leading role in climate change mitigation. In this study, measures that lower CO2 emissions from the supply side, demand side, and power grid are discussed, based on which, an integrated optimization model of CO2 mitigation (IOCM) is proposed. Virtual energy, referring to energy saving capacity in both demand side and the power grid, together with conventional energy in supply side, is unified planning for IOCM. Consequently, the optimal plan of energy distribution, considering both economic benefits and mitigation benefits, is figured out through the application of IOCM. The results indicate that development of demand side management (DSM) and smart grid can make great contributions to CO2 mitigation of power sector in China by reducing the CO2 emissions by 10.02% and 12.59%, respectively, in 2015, and in 2020. PMID:23213305

Animal health and price transmission along livestock supply chains.

PubMed

Aragrande, M; Canali, M

2017-04-01

Animal health diseases can severely affect the food supply chain by causing variations in prices and market demand. Price transmission analysis reveals in what ways price variations are transmitted along the supply chain, and how supply chains of substitute products and different regional markets are also affected. In perfect markets, a price variation would be completely and instantaneously transmitted across the different levels of the supply chain: producers, the processing industry, retailers and consumers. However, empirical studies show that food markets are often imperfect, with anomalies or asymmetries in price transmission and distortions in the distribution of market benefits. This means, for instance, that a price increase at the consumer level may not be transmitted from retailers to processors and producers; yet, on the other hand, price falls may rapidly affect the upstream supply chain. Market concentration and the consequent exertion of market power in key segments of the supply chain can explain price transmission asymmetries and their distributional effects, but other factors may also be involved, such as transaction costs, scale economies, and imperfect information. During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis, asymmetric price transmission in the beef supply chain and related meat markets determined distributional effects among sectors. After the spread of the BSE food scare, the fall in demand marginally affected the price paid to retailers, but producers and wholesalers suffered much more, in both price reductions and the time needed to recover to precrisis demand. Price transmission analysis investigates how animal health crises create different economic burdens for various types of stakeholder, and provides useful socioeconomic insights when used with other tools.

Big Government: Is It Too Big?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saunders, Peter

1984-01-01

Discusses achievements of an expanding public sector in education, health, and income maintenance. Also discusses adverse consequences of developments in these areas as related to labor supply and demand and to savings and investment. Effects of government tax and spending policies on the distribution of income are also addressed. (JN)

Economics: An Analysis of Unintended Consequences. Volume 2: Introduction to Macroeconomics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schenk, Robert E.

This curriculum guide emphasizes that economics is a method of thought or analysis and highlights the teaching of macroeconomic concepts. Definitions of economics, economic actions and their results, individual and group relationships, and supply and demand principles are reviewed. Macroeconomic concepts that are introduced include: (1) economic…

Choices in the Marketplace: A Basic Unit on Consumer Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heyne, Paul; Stevahn, Laurie

Consumer decision-making and its consequences for individual consumers and societal groups are examined in this economic unit for secondary school students. Seven lessons focus on developing an understanding of the concepts of scarcity, supply and demand, resources, choice, price, and interdependence and on fostering an economic way of thinking.…

Biomass feedstock production systems: economic and environmental benefits

Treesearch

Mark D. Coleman; John A. Stanturf

2006-01-01

The time is ripe for expanding bioenergy production capacity and developing a bio-based economy. Modern society has created unprecedented demands for energy and chemical products that are predominately based on geologic sources. However, there is a growing consensus that constraints on the supply of petroleum and the negative environmental consequences of burning...

Analysis of bullwhip effect on supply chain with Q model using Hadley-Within approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, I.; Nasution, A. A.; Matondang, N.; Persada, M. R.; Syahputri, K.

2018-02-01

This research held on a tapioca flour industry company that uses cassava as raw material to produce tapioca starch product. Problems that occur in this company is inaccurate planning, consequently there is a shortage of variation between the number of requests with the total supply is met, so it is necessary to do research with the formulation of the problem that is how to analyze the Bullwhip Effect on the supply chain using Q model through Hadley-Within approach so as not to disturb the product distribution system at the company. Product distribution system at the company, obtained by the number of requests. The 2015 forecast result is lower than actual demand for distributors and manufactures in 2016 with average percentage difference for Supermarket A distributor, Supermarket B and manufacturing respectively 38.24%, 89.57% and 43.11%. The occurrence of information distortion to the demand of this product can identify the existence of bullwhip effect on the supply chain. The proposed improvement to overcome the bullwhip effect is by doing inventory control policy with Q model using Hadley-Within approach.

Photovoltaic energy technologies: Health and environmental effects document

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moskowitz, P. D.; Hamilton, L. D.; Morris, S. C.; Rowe, M. D.

1980-09-01

The potential health and environmental consequences of producing electricity by photovoltaic energy systems was analyzed. Potential health and environmental risks are identified in representative fuel and material supply cycles including extraction, processing, refining, fabrication, installation, operation, and isposal for four photovoltaic energy systems (silicon N/P single crystal, silicon metal/insulator/semiconductor (MIS) cell, cadmium sulfide/copper sulfide backwall cell, and gallium arsenide heterojunction cell) delivering equal amounts of useful energy. Each step of the fuel and material supply cycles, materials demands, byproducts, public health, occupational health, and environmental hazards is identified.

Causes and consequences of the rise of populist radical right parties and movements in Europe

PubMed Central

Muis, Jasper; Immerzeel, Tim

2017-01-01

This article reviews three strands in the scholarship on the populist radical right (PRR). It covers both political parties and extra-parliamentary mobilization in contemporary European democracies. After definitional issues and case selection, the authors first discuss demand-side approaches to the fortunes of the PRR. Subsequently, supply-side approaches are assessed, namely political opportunity explanations and internal supply-side factors, referring to leadership, organization and ideological positioning. Third, research on the consequences of the emergence and rise of these parties and movements is examined: do they constitute a corrective or a threat to democracy? The authors discuss the growing literature on the impact on established parties’ policies, the policies themselves, and citizens’ behaviour. The review concludes with future directions for theorizing and research. PMID:28943648

Causes and consequences of the rise of populist radical right parties and movements in Europe.

PubMed

Muis, Jasper; Immerzeel, Tim

2017-10-01

This article reviews three strands in the scholarship on the populist radical right (PRR). It covers both political parties and extra-parliamentary mobilization in contemporary European democracies. After definitional issues and case selection, the authors first discuss demand-side approaches to the fortunes of the PRR. Subsequently, supply-side approaches are assessed, namely political opportunity explanations and internal supply-side factors, referring to leadership, organization and ideological positioning. Third, research on the consequences of the emergence and rise of these parties and movements is examined: do they constitute a corrective or a threat to democracy? The authors discuss the growing literature on the impact on established parties' policies, the policies themselves, and citizens' behaviour. The review concludes with future directions for theorizing and research.

A subjective supply-demand model: the maximum Boltzmann/Shannon entropy solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piotrowski, Edward W.; Sładkowski, Jan

2009-03-01

The present authors have put forward a projective geometry model of rational trading. The expected (mean) value of the time that is necessary to strike a deal and the profit strongly depend on the strategies adopted. A frequent trader often prefers maximal profit intensity to the maximization of profit resulting from a separate transaction because the gross profit/income is the adopted/recommended benchmark. To investigate activities that have different periods of duration we define, following the queuing theory, the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed point regardless of the shape of demand curves for a wide class of probability distributions of random reverse transactions (i.e. closing of the position). These conclusions remain valid for an analogous model based on supply analysis. This type of market game is often considered in research aiming at finding an algorithm that maximizes profit of a trader who negotiates prices with the Rest of the World (a collective opponent), possessing a definite and objective supply profile. Such idealization neglects the sometimes important influence of an individual trader on the demand/supply profile of the Rest of the World and in extreme cases questions the very idea of demand/supply profile. Therefore we put forward a trading model in which the demand/supply profile of the Rest of the World induces the (rational) trader to (subjectively) presume that he/she lacks (almost) all knowledge concerning the market but his/her average frequency of trade. This point of view introduces maximum entropy principles into the model and broadens the range of economic phenomena that can be perceived as a sort of thermodynamical system. As a consequence, the profit intensity has a fixed point with an astonishing connection with Fibonacci classical works and looking for the quickest algorithm for obtaining the extremum of a convex function: the profit intensity reaches its maximum when the probability of transaction is given by the golden ratio rule (\\sqrt {5}-1)/{2} . This condition sets a sharp criterion of validity of the model and can be tested with real market data.

Minimizing temperature instability of heat recovery hot water system utilizing optimized thermal energy storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suamir, I. N.; Sukadana, I. B. P.; Arsana, M. E.

2018-01-01

One energy-saving technology that starts gaining attractive for hotel industry application in Indonesia is the utilization of waste heat of a central air conditioning system to heat water for domestic hot water supply system. Implementing the technology for such application at a hotel was found that hot water capacity generated from the heat recovery system could satisfy domestic hot water demand of the hotel. The gas boilers installed in order to back up the system have never been used. The hot water supply, however, was found to be instable with hot water supply temperature fluctuated ranging from 45 °C to 62 °C. The temperature fluctuations reaches 17 °C, which is considered instable and can reduce hot water usage comfort level. This research is aimed to optimize the thermal energy storage in order to minimize the temperature instability of heat recovery hot water supply system. The research is a case study approach based on cooling and hot water demands of a hotel in Jakarta-Indonesia that has applied water cooled chillers with heat recovery systems. The hotel operation with 329 guest rooms and 8 function rooms showed that hot water production in the heat recovery system completed with 5 m3 thermal energy storage (TES) could not hold the hot water supply temperature constantly. The variations of the cooling demand and hot water demands day by day were identified. It was found that there was significant mismatched of available time (hours) between cooling demand which is directly correlated to the hot water production from the heat recovery system and hot water usage. The available TES system could not store heat rejected from the condenser of the chiller during cooling demand peak time between 14.00 and 18.00 hours. The extra heat from the heat recovery system consequently increases the temperature of hot water up to 62 °C. It is about 12 K above 50 °C the requirement hot water temperature of the hotel. In contrast, the TES could not deliver proper temperature of hot water during peak hot water demand and on that time between 06.00 and 10.00 hours, the hotel also experiences a low cooling demand. Subsequently, the temperature of hot water supplied drops down as low as 45 °C. The study was found that optimization on the TES can significantly minimize temperature variation of the hot water supplied to the hotel appliances. A TES of 30 m3 storage capacity is considered the optimum capacity which can reduce the temperature fluctuation from 17 K down to 3 K. The study also found that maintaining the storage temperature relatively lower than the condenser temperature could increase hot water production of the heat recovery system.

Assessing impacts of payments for watershed services on sustainability in coupled human and natural systems

Treesearch

Heidi Asbjornsen; Alex S. Mayer; Kelly W. Jones; Theresa Selfa; Leonardo Saenz; Randall K. Kolka; Kathleen E. Halvorsen

2015-01-01

Payments for watershed services (PWS) as a policy tool for enhancing water quality and supply have gained momentum in recent years, but their ability to lead to sustainable watershed outcomes is uncertain. Consequently, the demand for effective monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of PWS impacts on coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and their implications for...

Estimating spatially specific demand and supply of dental services: a longitudinal comparison in Northern Germany.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Jäger, Ralf; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; van den Berg, Neeltje

2016-09-01

Assessing the spatial distribution of oral morbidity-related demand and the workforce-related supply is relevant for planning dental services. We aimed to establish and validate a model for estimating the spatially specific demand and supply. This model was then applied to compare demand-supply ratios in 2001 and 2011 in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Northern Germany). The spatial units were zip code areas. Demand per area was estimated by linking population-specific oral morbidities to working times via insurance claim data. Estimated demand was validated against the provided demand in 2001 and 2011. Supply was calculated for both years using cohort data from the dentist register. The ratio of demand and supply was geographically mapped and its distribution between areas assessed using the Gini coefficient. Between 2001 and 2011, a significant decrease of the general population (-7.0 percent), the annual demand (-13.1 percent), and the annual supply (-12.9 percent) was recorded. The estimated demands were nearly (2001: -4 percent) and completely (2011: ±0 percent) congruent with provided demands. The average demand-supply-ratio did not change significantly between 2001 and 2011 (P > 0.05), but was increasingly unequally distributed. In both years, few areas were over-serviced, while many were under-serviced. The established model can be used to estimate spatially specific demand and supply. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Ethanol production, corn gluten feed, and EC trade. Agriculture information bulletin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, M.

1993-07-01

The profitability of ethanol depends not only on sales of ethanol, but on sales of several coproducts of corn wet-milling such as corn gluten feed (CGF). CGF demand and supply are affected by several European Community (EC) and US policies, such as EC grain price supports and US energy policies. Changes in existing policies and programs could have a significant effect on the CGF market and, consequently, on the profitability of ethanol production. The report examines the implications of several policy options on demand, supply, and price of CGF and on the profitability of ethanol production. The policy changes examinedmore » include: (1) the effect of proposed changes in EC farm and trade policies, and (2) the effect of increased ethanol production due to proposed US environmental policies, such as the reauthorization of the Clean Air Act.« less

Effects of low sink demand on leaf photosynthesis under potassium deficiency.

PubMed

Pan, Yonghui; Lu, Zhifeng; Lu, Jianwei; Li, Xiaokun; Cong, Rihuan; Ren, Tao

2017-04-01

The interaction between low sink demand and potassium (K) deficiency in leaf photosynthesis was not intensively investigated, therefore this interaction was investigated in winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). Plants subjected to sufficient (+K) or insufficient (-K) K supply treatments were maintained or removed their flowers and pods; these conditions were defined as high sink demand (HS) or low sink demand (LS), respectively. The low sink demand induced a lower photosynthetic rate (P n ), especially in the -K treatment during the first week. A negative relationship between P n and carbohydrate concentration was observed in the -K treatment but not in the +K treatment, suggesting that the decrease in P n in the -K treatment was the result of sink feedback regulation under low sink demand. Longer sink removal duration increased carbohydrate concentration, but the enhanced assimilate did not influence P n . On the contrary, low sink demand resulted in a high K concentration, slower chloroplast degradation rate and better PSII activity, inducing a higher P n compared with HS. Consequently, low sink demand decreased leaf photosynthesis over the short term due to sink feedback regulation, and potassium deficiency enhanced the photosynthetic decrease through carbohydrate accumulation and a lower carbohydrate concentration threshold for initiating photosynthesis depression. A longer duration of limited sink demand and sufficient potassium supply resulted in a higher photosynthesis rate because of delayed chloroplast degradation. This finding indicates that the nutritional status plays a role in leaf photosynthesis variations due to sink-source manipulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The cocaine and heroin markets in the era of globalisation and drug reduction policies.

PubMed

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

2009-11-01

Despite the large volume of public effort devoted to restrain drug supply and the growing attention given to drug demand reduction policies, the use of cocaine and heroin remains steady. Furthermore, retail drug prices have fallen significantly in Europe and the US. This puzzling evidence leads us to develop a model aiming at systematically analysing illicit drug markets. We model the markets of cocaine and heroin from production to the final retail markets. One novelty of the analysis consists in characterising the retail market as a monopolistic competitive one. Then, upper level dealers have some market power in the retail market. This allows them to charge a markup and to earn extra profits. These extra profits attract newcomers so that profits tend to fall over time. Theoretical model was used to analyse the effect of supply containment policies on the retail market, the producer market and the export-import business. This introduces the discussion of the impact of demand reduction policies on the high level traffickers' profit. Finally, globalisation enters in the model. Law enforcement measures increase the risk premia received by the lower and higher level traffickers. Consequently, trafficking intermediation margins tend to increase. However, globalisation has the opposite effect. It lowers intermediation margins and, then, pushes retail prices down, thereby stimulating consumption. In doing so, globalisation offsets the effects of supply containment policies. Finally, we discuss how the effectiveness of supply containment policies can be enhanced by combining them with demand reduction policies.

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Identification, assessment, and control of hazards in water supply: experiences from Water Safety Plan implementations in Germany.

PubMed

Mälzer, H-J; Staben, N; Hein, A; Merkel, W

2010-01-01

According to the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) for Water Safety Plans (WSP), a Technical Risk Management was developed, which considers standard demands in drinking water treatment in Germany. It was already implemented at several drinking water treatment plants of different size and treatment processes in Germany. Hazards affecting water quality, continuity, and the reliability of supply from catchment to treatment and distribution could be identified by a systematic approach, and suitable control measures were defined. Experiences are presented by detailed examples covering methods, practical consequences, and further outcomes. The method and the benefits for the water suppliers are discussed and an outlook on the future role of WSPs in German water supply is given.

Alternative supply specifications and estimates of regional supply and demand for stumpage.

Treesearch

Kent P. Connaughton; David H. Jackson; Gerard A. Majerus

1988-01-01

Four plausible sets of stumpage supply and demand equations were developed and estimated; the demand equation was the same for each set, although the supply equation differed. The supply specifications varied from the model of regional excess demand in which National Forest harvest levels were assumed fixed to a more realistic model in which the harvest on the National...

Demand-supply dynamics in tourism systems: A spatio-temporal GIS analysis. The Alberta ski industry case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertazzon, Stefania

The present research focuses on the interaction of supply and demand of down-hill ski tourism in the province of Alberta. The main hypothesis is that the demand for skiing depends on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population living in the province and outside it. A second, consequent hypothesis is that the development of ski resorts (supply) is a response to the demand for skiing. From the latter derives the hypothesis of a dynamic interaction between supply (ski resorts) and demand (skiers). Such interaction occurs in space, within a range determined by physical distance and the means available to overcome it. The above hypotheses implicitly define interactions that take place in space and evolve over time. The hypotheses are tested by temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal regression models, using the best available data and the latest commercially available software. The main purpose of this research is to explore analytical techniques to model spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dynamics in the context of regional science. The completion of the present research has produced more significant contributions than was originally expected. Many of the unexpected contributions resulted from theoretical and applied needs arising from the application of spatial regression models. Spatial regression models are a new and largely under-applied technique. The models are fairly complex and a considerable amount of preparatory work is needed, prior to their specification and estimation. Most of this work is specific to the field of application. The originality of the solutions devised is increased by the lack of applications in the field of tourism. The scarcity of applications in other fields adds to their value for other applications. The estimation of spatio-temporal models has been only partially attained in the present research. This apparent limitation is due to the novelty and complexity of the analytical methods applied. This opens new directions for further work in the field of spatial analysis, in conjunction with the development of specific software.

Essays on Mathematical Optimization for Residential Demand Response in the Energy Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palaparambil Dinesh, Lakshmi

In the electric utility industry, it could be challenging to adjust supply to match demand due to large generator ramp up times, high generation costs and insufficient in-house generation capacity. Demand response (DR) is a technique for adjusting the demand for electric power instead of the supply. Direct Load Control (DLC) is one of the ways to implement DR. DLC program participants sign up for power interruption contracts and are given financial incentives for curtailing electricity usage during peak demand time periods. This dissertation studies a DLC program for residential air conditioners using mathematical optimization models. First, we develop a model that determines what contract parameters to use in designing contracts between the provider and residential customers, when to turn which power unit on or off and how much power to cut during peak demand hours. The model uses information on customer preferences for choice of contract parameters such as DLC financial incentives and energy usage curtailment. In numerical experiments, the proposed model leads to projected cost savings of the order of 20%, compared to a current benchmark model used in practice. We also quantify the impact of factors leading to cost savings and study characteristics of customers picked by different contracts. Second, we study a DLC program in a macro economic environment using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. A CGE model is used to study the impact of external factors such as policy and technology changes on different economic sectors. Here we differentiate customers based on their preference for DLC programs by using different values for price elasticity of demand for electricity commodity. Consequently, DLC program customers could substitute demand for electricity commodity with other commodities such as transportation sector. Price elasticity of demand is calculated using a novel methodology that incorporates customer preferences for DLC contracts from the first model. The calculation of elasticity based on our methodology is useful since the prices of commodities are not only determined by aggregate demand and supply but also by customers' relative preferences for commodities. In addition to this we quantify the indirect substitution and rebound effects on sectoral activity levels, incomes and prices based on customer differences, when DLC is implemented.

More oxygen during development enhanced flight performance but not thermal tolerance of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Shiehzadegan, Shayan; Le Vinh Thuy, Jacqueline; Szabla, Natalia; Angilletta, Michael J; VandenBrooks, John M

2017-01-01

High temperatures can stress animals by raising the oxygen demand above the oxygen supply. Consequently, animals under hypoxia could be more sensitive to heating than those exposed to normoxia. Although support for this model has been limited to aquatic animals, oxygen supply might limit the heat tolerance of terrestrial animals during energetically demanding activities. We evaluated this model by studying the flight performance and heat tolerance of flies (Drosophila melanogaster) acclimated and tested at different concentrations of oxygen (12%, 21%, and 31%). We expected that flies raised at hypoxia would develop into adults that were more likely to fly under hypoxia than would flies raised at normoxia or hyperoxia. We also expected flies to benefit from greater oxygen supply during testing. These effects should have been most pronounced at high temperatures, which impair locomotor performance. Contrary to our expectations, we found little evidence that flies raised at hypoxia flew better when tested at hypoxia or tolerated extreme heat better than did flies raised at normoxia or hyperoxia. Instead, flies raised at higher oxygen levels performed better at all body temperatures and oxygen concentrations. Moreover, oxygen supply during testing had the greatest effect on flight performance at low temperature, rather than high temperature. Our results poorly support the hypothesis that oxygen supply limits performance at high temperatures, but do support the idea that hyperoxia during development improves performance of flies later in life.

Healthcare payment incentives: a comparative analysis of reforms in Taiwan, South Korea and China.

PubMed

Eggleston, Karen; Hsieh, Chee-Ruey

2004-01-01

Payment incentives to both consumers and providers have significant consequences for the equity and efficiency of a healthcare system, and have recently come to the fore in health policy reforms. This review first discusses the economic rationale for the apparent international convergence toward payment systems with mixed demand- and supply-side cost sharing. The recent payment reforms undertaken in Taiwan, South Korea and China are then summarised. Available evidence clearly indicates that payment incentives matter, and, in particular, that supply-side cost sharing can improve efficiency without undermining equity. Further study and monitoring of health service quality and risk selection is warranted.

State Water Resource Competition and the Resulting Consequences of Diminished Water Supply

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

world . Because this realization is becoming more and more prevalent, the human survival instinct is prompting competition and conflict over water...the main contributing factors in creating a more interdependent world when it comes to freshwater. Freshwater availability has diminished over time...climate change, appears to be changing the landscape of our world for the worse. Along with a new landscape comes new demand for resource

Water scarcity in the Arabian Peninsula and socio-economic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odhiambo, George O.

2017-09-01

The Arabian Gulf, one of the driest parts of the world, is already passing the water scarcity line as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The scarcity of renewable water resources and the growing discrepancy between demand and supply of water is a major challenge. Water scarcity is further worsened by rapidly growing demands due to rapid population growth, unsustainable consumption, climate change and weak management institutions and regulations. Water scarcity erodes the socio-economic sustainability of the communities that depend on the depleting storage. In this paper, an analysis of the water security situation within the Arabian Gulf region and the consequent socio-economic implications is presented.

Indirect Potable Reuse: A Sustainable Water Supply Alternative

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, Clemencia; Van Buynder, Paul; Lugg, Richard; Blair, Palenque; Devine, Brian; Cook, Angus; Weinstein, Philip

2009-01-01

The growing scarcity of potable water supplies is among the most important issues facing many cities, in particular those using single sources of water that are climate dependent. Consequently, urban centers are looking to alternative sources of water supply that can supplement variable rainfall and meet the demands of population growth. A diversified portfolio of water sources is required to ensure public health, as well as social, economical and environmental sustainability. One of the options considered is the augmentation of drinking water supplies with advanced treated recycled water. This paper aims to provide a state of the art review of water recycling for drinking purposes with emphasis on membrane treatment processes. An overview of significant indirect potable reuse projects is presented followed by a description of the epidemiological and toxicological studies evaluating any potential human health impacts. Finally, a summary of key operational measures to protect human health and the areas that require further research are discussed. PMID:19440440

Indirect potable reuse: a sustainable water supply alternative.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Clemencia; Van Buynder, Paul; Lugg, Richard; Blair, Palenque; Devine, Brian; Cook, Angus; Weinstein, Philip

2009-03-01

The growing scarcity of potable water supplies is among the most important issues facing many cities, in particular those using single sources of water that are climate dependent. Consequently, urban centers are looking to alternative sources of water supply that can supplement variable rainfall and meet the demands of population growth. A diversified portfolio of water sources is required to ensure public health, as well as social, economical and environmental sustainability. One of the options considered is the augmentation of drinking water supplies with advanced treated recycled water. This paper aims to provide a state of the art review of water recycling for drinking purposes with emphasis on membrane treatment processes. An overview of significant indirect potable reuse projects is presented followed by a description of the epidemiological and toxicological studies evaluating any potential human health impacts. Finally, a summary of key operational measures to protect human health and the areas that require further research are discussed.

How to optimize tourism destination supply: A case in Shanghai from perspective of supplier and demand side perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Huaju; Fang, Chengjiang

2018-02-01

It is vital to assess the regional tourist supply capability by suppliers and demand groups. The supply side’s evaluation of the regional supply capacity determines the direction of the supply investment in future, the demand side’s evaluation indicates their satisfaction degree of the destination supply and also effects their revisit the tourism destination. Therefore, the assessment of the supply and demand sides is an important reference for the reform of destination supply side, which helps us find the shortage of the destination supply factors and optimize tourism destination supply promptly. This paper through investigating tourism supply and demand groups in Shanghai, used the survey data and constructed tourism supply optimization model, analyzed the current situation of tourism supply factors in Shanghai. Results showed that the environment of Shanghai should be improved first, including improving urban air and water quality, up-grading public sanitation and increasing urban green coverage. Other supply factors improved priority were information and marketing, we should improve the information consultation of scenic spots, increase the intensity of tourism promotion and provide more free travel publicity brochures.

The Role of Education in the Supply and Demand of Educated Manpower. Research Memorandum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Kan Hua

This description of a methodology for examining the supply of educated manpower and the demand for their services consists of two major sections, which are devoted to the supply and demand of educated manpower respectively. In the first section, the supply of educated manpower and the demand for educational inputs are considered, the main…

Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellegers, Petra; Immerzeel, Walter; Droogers, Peter

2013-10-01

In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia in 2040-2050 under dry, average and wet climate change projections and to show on the basis of the marginal cost and marginal value of water the optimum mix of supply-side and demand-side adjustments to address the imbalance. A hydrological model has been used to estimate the water supply-demand imbalance. Water supply and demand curves have been used to explore for which (marginal value of) water usage the marginal cost of supply-enhancement becomes too expensive. The results indicate that in the future in all cases, except in Iran under the wet climate projection, the quantity of water demanded has to be reduced considerably to address the imbalance, which is indeed what is currently happening already.

The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

2011-01-01

Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

1994-05-01

The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands,more » and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.« less

Analysis and Strategies of the Unbalance of the Supply and Demand in the Higher Education Market of China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ma, Jie

2010-01-01

The popularization of higher education largely impacts the balance of the supply and demand of the China higher education market. Starting from the basic concepts of the supply and demand of higher education, the actuality and influencing factors of the supply and demand in China higher education market are analyzed in this article, and…

A Risk Management Method for the Operation of a Supply-Chain without Storage:

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Yasuhiro; Manabe, Yuuji; Nakata, Norimasa; Kusaka, Satoshi

A business risk management method has been developed for a supply-chain without a storage function under demand uncertainty. Power supply players in the deregulated power market face the need to develop the best policies for power supply from self-production and reserved purchases to balance demand, which is predictable with error. The proposed method maximizes profit from the operation of the supply-chain under probabilistic demand uncertainty on the basis of a probabilistic programming approach. Piece-wise linear functions are employed to formulate the impact of under-booked or over-booked purchases on the supply cost, and constraints on over-demand probability are introduced to limit over-demand frequency on the basis of the demand probability distribution. The developed method has been experimentally applied to the supply policy of a power-supply-chain, the operation of which is based on a 3-stage pricing purchase contract and on 28 time zones. The characteristics of the obtained optimal supply policy are successfully captured in the numerical results, which suggest the applicability of the proposed method.

Quantifying and Mapping the Supply of and Demand for Carbon Storage and Sequestration Service from Urban Trees.

PubMed

Zhao, Chang; Sander, Heather A

2015-01-01

Studies that assess the distribution of benefits provided by ecosystem services across urban areas are increasingly common. Nevertheless, current knowledge of both the supply and demand sides of ecosystem services remains limited, leaving a gap in our understanding of balance between ecosystem service supply and demand that restricts our ability to assess and manage these services. The present study seeks to fill this gap by developing and applying an integrated approach to quantifying the supply and demand of a key ecosystem service, carbon storage and sequestration, at the local level. This approach follows three basic steps: (1) quantifying and mapping service supply based upon Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) processing and allometric models, (2) quantifying and mapping demand for carbon sequestration using an indicator based on local anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and (3) mapping a supply-to-demand ratio. We illustrate this approach using a portion of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA. Our results indicate that 1735.69 million kg carbon are stored by urban trees in our study area. Annually, 33.43 million kg carbon are sequestered by trees, whereas 3087.60 million kg carbon are emitted by human sources. Thus, carbon sequestration service provided by urban trees in the study location play a minor role in combating climate change, offsetting approximately 1% of local anthropogenic carbon emissions per year, although avoided emissions via storage in trees are substantial. Our supply-to-demand ratio map provides insight into the balance between carbon sequestration supply in urban trees and demand for such sequestration at the local level, pinpointing critical locations where higher levels of supply and demand exist. Such a ratio map could help planners and policy makers to assess and manage the supply of and demand for carbon sequestration.

Confronting the Impact of HIV and AIDS: The Consequences of the Pandemics for Education Supply, Demand and Quality--A Global Review from a Southern African Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coombe, Carol

2004-01-01

The global spread of the HIV and AIDS pandemics will, for the next three generations at least, underline education access, quality and provision. Reforms within the sector will necessarily take account of the implications of this plague within national, provincial and local contexts. This article is based on several assumptions. The first is that…

The kidney allocation score: methodological problems, moral concerns and unintended consequences.

PubMed

Hippen, B

2009-07-01

The growing disparity between the demand for and supply of kidneys for transplantation has generated interest in alternative systems of allocating kidneys from deceased donors. This personal viewpoint focuses attention on the Kidney Allocation Score (KAS) proposal promulgated by the UNOS/OPTN Kidney Committee. I identify several methodological and moral flaws in the proposed system, concluding that any iteration of the KAS proposal should be met with more skepticism than sanguinity.

Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

2014-05-01

To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

Study on Fuel Cell Network System Considering Reduction in Fuel Cell Capacity Using Load Leveling and Heat Release Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obara, Shin'ya; Kudo, Kazuhiko

Reduction in fuel cell capacity linked to a fuel cell network system is considered. When the power demand of the whole network is small, some of the electric power generated by the fuel cell is supplied to a water electrolysis device, and hydrogen and oxygen gases are generated. Both gases are compressed with each compressor and they are stored in cylinders. When the electric demand of the whole network is large, both gases are supplied to the network, and fuel cells are operated by these hydrogen and oxygen gases. Furthermore, an optimization plan is made to minimize the quantity of heat release of the hot water piping that connects each building. Such an energy network is analyzed assuming connection of individual houses, a hospital, a hotel, a convenience store, an office building, and a factory. Consequently, compared with the conventional system, a reduction of 46% of fuel cell capacity is expected.

Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

2016-11-01

Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

PubMed

Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

2012-02-01

Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

Using an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Model to Develop Minimum Cost Water Supply Portfolios and Manage Supply Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.; Ramsey, J.

2004-12-01

Water scarcity has become a reality in many areas as a result of population growth, fewer available sources, and reduced tolerance for the environmental impacts of developing the new supplies that do exist. As a result, successfully managing future water supply risk will become more dependent on coordinating the use of existing resources. Toward that end, flexible supply strategies that can rapidly respond to hydrologic variability will provide communities with increasing economic advantages, particularly if the frequency of more extreme events (e.g., drought) increases due to global climate change. Markets for established commodities (e.g., oil, gas) often provide a framework for efficiently responding to changes in supply and demand. Water markets, however, have remained relatively crude, with most transactions involving permanent transfers and long regulatory processes. Recently, interest in the use of flexible short-term transfers (e.g., leases, options) has begun to motivate consideration of more sophisticated strategies for managing supply risk, strategies similar to those used in more mature markets. In this case, communities can benefit from some of the advantages that water enjoys over other commodities, in particular, the ability to accurately characterize the stochastic nature of supply and demand through hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic-economic models are developed for two different water scarce regions supporting active water markets: Edward Aquifer and Lower Rio Grande Valley. These models are used to construct portfolios of water supply transfers (e.g., permanent transfers, options, and spot leases) that minimize the cost of meeting a probabilistic reliability constraint. Real and simulated spot price distributions allow each type of transfer to be priced in a manner consistent with financial theory (e.g., Black-Scholes). Market simulations are integrated with hydrologic models such that variability in supply and demand are linked with price behavior. Decisions on when and how much water to lease (or exercise, in the case of options) are made on the basis of anticipatory rules based on the ratio of expected supply to expected demand, and are used to evaluate the economic consequences of a utilityAƒAøAøâ_sA¬Aøâ_zAøs attitude toward risk. The marginal cost of supply reliability is also explored by varying the water supply reliability constraint, an important consideration as the rising expense of new source development may encourage some communities to accept a nominal number of supply shortfalls. Results demonstrate how changes in the distribution of various transfer types within a portfolio can affect its cost and reliability. Results also suggest that substantial savings can be obtained through the use of market-based risk management strategies, with optimal portfolio costs averaging as much as 35 percent less than the costs of meeting reliability targets through the maintenance of firm capacity. Both the conceptual and modeling approach described in this work are likely to have increasing application as water scarcity continues to drive the search for more efficient approaches to water resource management.

More oxygen during development enhanced flight performance but not thermal tolerance of Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Shiehzadegan, Shayan; Le Vinh Thuy, Jacqueline; Szabla, Natalia; Angilletta, Michael J.

2017-01-01

High temperatures can stress animals by raising the oxygen demand above the oxygen supply. Consequently, animals under hypoxia could be more sensitive to heating than those exposed to normoxia. Although support for this model has been limited to aquatic animals, oxygen supply might limit the heat tolerance of terrestrial animals during energetically demanding activities. We evaluated this model by studying the flight performance and heat tolerance of flies (Drosophila melanogaster) acclimated and tested at different concentrations of oxygen (12%, 21%, and 31%). We expected that flies raised at hypoxia would develop into adults that were more likely to fly under hypoxia than would flies raised at normoxia or hyperoxia. We also expected flies to benefit from greater oxygen supply during testing. These effects should have been most pronounced at high temperatures, which impair locomotor performance. Contrary to our expectations, we found little evidence that flies raised at hypoxia flew better when tested at hypoxia or tolerated extreme heat better than did flies raised at normoxia or hyperoxia. Instead, flies raised at higher oxygen levels performed better at all body temperatures and oxygen concentrations. Moreover, oxygen supply during testing had the greatest effect on flight performance at low temperature, rather than high temperature. Our results poorly support the hypothesis that oxygen supply limits performance at high temperatures, but do support the idea that hyperoxia during development improves performance of flies later in life. PMID:28542380

Physical Therapy and Occupational Therapy: Suggested Readings [and] Physical Therapy: Supply/Demand--Some Facts [and] Occupational Therapy: Supply and Demand--Some Facts. Information on Personnel Supply and Demand.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Clearinghouse for Professions in Special Education, Reston, VA.

Brought together are two fact sheets on the supply of and demand for physical therapists and occupational therapists. The fact sheets cite statistical data from the National Easter Seal Society, the American Physical Therapy Association, and the American Occupational Therapy Association. The cited facts focus on the need to recruit and retain…

China's Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

2016-07-01

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China's supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007-2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China's rare earth supply, translating into 59-65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14-16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

China’s rare earth supply chain: Illegal production, and response to new cerium demand

DOE PAGES

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

2016-03-29

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China’s supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructedmore » a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the U.S. market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007 to 2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China’s rare earth supply, translating into 59–65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14–16% illegal light rare earths. There would be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Lastly, we illustrated revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.« less

China’s rare earth supply chain: Illegal production, and response to new cerium demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China’s supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructedmore » a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the U.S. market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007 to 2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China’s rare earth supply, translating into 59–65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14–16% illegal light rare earths. There would be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Lastly, we illustrated revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.« less

What limits evaporation from Mediterranean oak woodlands The supply of moisture in the soil, physiological control by plants or the demand by the atmosphere?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Xu, Liukang

2007-10-01

The prediction of evaporation from Mediterranean woodland ecosystems is complicated by an array of climate, soil and plant factors. To provide a mechanistic and process-oriented understanding, we evaluate theoretical and experimental information on water loss of Mediterranean oaks at three scales, the leaf, tree and woodland. We use this knowledge to address: what limits evaporation from Mediterranean oak woodlands - the supply of moisture in the soil, physiological control by plants or the demand by the atmosphere? The Mediterranean climate is highly seasonal with wet winters and hot, dry summers. Consequently, available sunlight is in surplus, causing potential evaporation to far exceed available rainfall on an annual basis. Because the amount of precipitation to support woody plants is marginal, Mediterranean oaks must meet their limited water supply by a variety of means. They do so by: (1) constraining the leaf area index of the landscape by establishing a canopy with widely spaced trees; (2) reducing the size of individual leaves; (3) by adopting physiological characteristics that meter the use of water (e.g. regulating stomatal, leaf nitrogen/photosynthetic capacity and/or hydraulic conductance); (4), by tapping deep supplies of water in the soil; (5) and/or by adopting a deciduous life form, which reduces the time interval that the vegetation transpires.

Adapting Reservoir Operations to Reduce the Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Flood Intensification in the Lower Susquehanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatarain-Salazar, J.; Reed, P. M.; Quinn, J.

2017-12-01

This study characterizes how changes in reservoir operations can be used to better balance growing flood intensities and the conflicting multi-sectorial demands in the Lower Susequehanna River Basin (LSRB), USA. Tensions in the LSRB are increasing with urban population pressures, evolving energy demands, and growing flood-based infrastructure vulnerabilities. This study explores how re-operation of the Conowingo Reservoir, located in the LSRB, can improve the balance between competing demands for hydropower production, urban water supply to Chester, PA and Baltimore, MD, cooling water supply for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Plant, recreation, federal environmental flow requirements and improved mitigation of growing flood hazards. The LSRB is also one of the most flood prone basins in the US, impacted by hurricanes and rain-on-snow induced flood events causing on average $100 million in economic losses and infrastructure damages to downstream settlements every year. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the consequences of mathematical formulation choices, uncertainty characterization and the value of information when defining the Conowingo reservoir's multi-purpose operations. This work seeks to strike a balance between the complexity and the efficacy of rival framings for the problem formulations used to discover effective operating policies. More broadly, the problem of intensifying urban floods in reservoir systems with complex multi-sectoral demands is broadly relevant to developed river basins globally.

Quantifying and Mapping the Supply of and Demand for Carbon Storage and Sequestration Service from Urban Trees

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chang; Sander, Heather A.

2015-01-01

Studies that assess the distribution of benefits provided by ecosystem services across urban areas are increasingly common. Nevertheless, current knowledge of both the supply and demand sides of ecosystem services remains limited, leaving a gap in our understanding of balance between ecosystem service supply and demand that restricts our ability to assess and manage these services. The present study seeks to fill this gap by developing and applying an integrated approach to quantifying the supply and demand of a key ecosystem service, carbon storage and sequestration, at the local level. This approach follows three basic steps: (1) quantifying and mapping service supply based upon Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) processing and allometric models, (2) quantifying and mapping demand for carbon sequestration using an indicator based on local anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and (3) mapping a supply-to-demand ratio. We illustrate this approach using a portion of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA. Our results indicate that 1735.69 million kg carbon are stored by urban trees in our study area. Annually, 33.43 million kg carbon are sequestered by trees, whereas 3087.60 million kg carbon are emitted by human sources. Thus, carbon sequestration service provided by urban trees in the study location play a minor role in combating climate change, offsetting approximately 1% of local anthropogenic carbon emissions per year, although avoided emissions via storage in trees are substantial. Our supply-to-demand ratio map provides insight into the balance between carbon sequestration supply in urban trees and demand for such sequestration at the local level, pinpointing critical locations where higher levels of supply and demand exist. Such a ratio map could help planners and policy makers to assess and manage the supply of and demand for carbon sequestration. PMID:26317530

Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010, 1993

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1993-01-01

The paper summarizes the 1993 edition of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand and presents the implications of the projections that are important for GRI research and development planning and the gas industry. The survey of supply and demand considerations is followed by a breakdown of energy demand by type of fuel, by consumption sector, and by service application. Gas supply and prices are analyzed in terms of two scenarios: a constrained energy demand scenario, and an optimistic scenario. Tables and charts accompany the summary.

Method for estimating power outages and restoration during natural and man-made events

DOEpatents

Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Fernandez, Steven J.

2016-01-05

A method of modeling electric supply and demand with a data processor in combination with a recordable medium, and for estimating spatial distribution of electric power outages and affected populations. A geographic area is divided into cells to form a matrix. Within the matrix, supply cells are identified as containing electric substations and demand cells are identified as including electricity customers. Demand cells of the matrix are associated with the supply cells as a function of the capacity of each of the supply cells and the proximity and/or electricity demand of each of the demand cells. The method includes estimating a power outage by applying disaster event prediction information to the matrix, and estimating power restoration using the supply and demand cell information of the matrix and standardized and historical restoration information.

42 CFR 84.131 - Supplied-air respirators; required components.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Facepiece, hood, or helmet; (2) Air supply valve, orifice, or demand or pressure-demand regulator; (3) Hand... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Supplied-air respirators; required components. 84... Supplied-Air Respirators § 84.131 Supplied-air respirators; required components. (a) Each supplied-air...

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto andmore » away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.« less

Drivers of Change in Managed Water Resources: Modeling the Impacts of Climate and Socioeconomic Changes Using the US Midwest as a Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

A global integrated assessment model including a water-demand model driven by socio-economics, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. The integrated modeling framework is applied to the U.S. Upper Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio) to advance understanding of the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on integrated water resources. Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Changes in water demand are driven bymore » socio-economic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices. The framework identifies the multiple spatial scales of interactions between the drivers of changes (natural flow and water demand) and the managed water resources (regulated flow, supply and supply deficit). The contribution of the different drivers of change are quantified regionally, and also evaluated locally, using covariances. The integrated framework shows that water supply deficit is more predictable over the Missouri than the other regions in the Midwest. The predictability of the supply deficit mostly comes from long term changes in water demand although changes in runoff has a greater contribution, comparable to the contribution of changes in demand, over shorter time periods. The integrated framework also shows that spatially, water demand drives local supply deficit. Using elasticity, the sensitivity of supply deficit to drivers of change is established. The supply deficit is found to be more sensitive to changes in runoff than to changes in demand regionally. It contrasts with the covariance analysis that shows that water demand is the dominant driver of supply deficit over the analysed periods. The elasticity indicates the level of mitigation needed to control the demand in order to reduce the vulnerability of the integrated system in future periods. The elasticity analyses also emphasize the need to address uncertainty with respect to changes in natural flow in integrated assessment.« less

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law

PubMed Central

Painter, Page R

2005-01-01

Background Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent α in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). Methods The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Results Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. Conclusion The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate. PMID:16283939

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law.

PubMed

Painter, Page R

2005-11-10

Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent alpha in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

The effect of waiting times on demand and supply for elective surgery: Evidence from Italy.

PubMed

Riganti, Andrea; Siciliani, Luigi; Fiorio, Carlo V

2017-09-01

Waiting times are a major policy concern in publicly funded health systems across OECD countries. Economists have argued that, in the presence of excess demand, waiting times act as nonmonetary prices to bring demand for and supply of health care in equilibrium. Using administrative data disaggregated by region and surgical procedure over 2010-2014 in Italy, we estimate demand and supply elasticities with respect to waiting times. We employ linear regression models with first differences and instrumental variables to deal with endogeneity of waiting times. We find that demand is inelastic to waiting times while supply is more elastic. Estimates of demand elasticity are between -0.15 to -0.24. Our results have implications on the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing supply and their ability to reduce waiting times. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Whan-Seon

2013-06-01

Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

PubMed

Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

2014-09-01

Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive strategies need to be instituted to mitigate this gap.

Global energy consumption and production in 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, E. L.; Davison, C.; Dougher, R.; Edmonds, J. A.; Reilly, J.

1981-02-01

This study anticipates that global energy demand will continue to expand through 2000, although at a slower pace than in 1965 to 1978. Growth of supply is expected to be largely in conventional, nonrenewable fuels - coal, oil, uranium, and natural gas. Energy growth is also expected to slow down in terms of energy consumption per unit of output as a consequence of continuing efficiency improvements, which, in turn, result from higher energy prices. Slower rates of economic growth are expected in all groups of countries, developed and underdeveloped.

"The study on surgical services for the United States": a valid prescription for American surgery?

PubMed

Hughes, E F; Lewit, E M; Pauly, M V

1977-01-01

The overall approach of SOSSUS to the study of surgical services, the interpretation of findings, and policy recommendations are rightly called into question. But singular concern with the consequences of monopolistic control by the profession is no substitute for analysis of the dynamics among demand, production, and supply of surgery. Any delivery system--and many models are feasible--involving consumers, providers, and payers is a market in which multidimensional behavior must be anticipated.

Illinois Teacher Supply and Demand, 1984-1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartolini, Leandro

Statistics are presented on the current status of teacher supply and demand trends in Illinois. This report reviews and discusses the factors affecting teacher supply and demand, changes in student enrollment, teacher retirements, changes in state mandates, and opportunity for employment. An analysis of the data collected on teacher employment…

Supply and demand in physician markets: a panel data analysis of GP services in Australia.

PubMed

McRae, Ian; Butler, James R G

2014-09-01

To understand the trends in any physician services market it is necessary to understand the nature of both supply and demand, but few studies have jointly examined supply and demand in these markets. This study uses aggregate panel data on general practitioner (GP) services at the Statistical Local Area level in Australia spanning eight years to estimate supply and demand equations for GP services. The structural equations of the model are estimated separately using population-weighted fixed effects panel modelling with the two stage least squares formulation of the generalised method of moments approach (GMM (2SLS)). The estimated price elasticity of demand of [Formula: see text] is comparable with other studies. The direct impact of GP density on demand, while significant, proves almost immaterial in the context of near vertical supply curves. Supply changes are therefore due to shifts in the position of the curves, partly determined by a time trend. The model is validated by comparing post-panel model predictions with actual market outcomes over a period of three years and is found to provide surprisingly accurate projections over a period of significant policy change. The study confirms the need to jointly consider supply and demand in exploring the behaviour of physician services markets.

Molecular system bioenergetics: regulation of substrate supply in response to heart energy demands.

PubMed

Saks, Valdur; Favier, Roland; Guzun, Rita; Schlattner, Uwe; Wallimann, Theo

2006-12-15

This review re-evaluates regulatory aspects of substrate supply in heart. In aerobic heart, the preferred substrates are always free fatty acids, and workload-induced increase in their oxidation is observed at unchanged global levels of ATP, phosphocreatine and AMP. Here, we evaluate the mechanisms of regulation of substrate supply for mitochondrial respiration in muscle cells, and show that a system approach is useful also for revealing mechanisms of feedback signalling within the network of substrate oxidation and particularly for explaining the role of malonyl-CoA in regulation of fatty acid oxidation in cardiac muscle. This approach shows that a key regulator of fatty acid oxidation is the energy demand. Alterations in malonyl-CoA would not be the reason for, but rather the consequence of, the increased fatty acid oxidation at elevated workloads, when the level of acetyl-CoA decreases due to shifts in the kinetics of the Krebs cycle. This would make malonyl-CoA a feedback regulator that allows acyl-CoA entry into mitochondrial matrix space only when it is needed. Regulation of malonyl-CoA levels by AMPK does not seem to work as a master on-off switch, but rather as a modulator of fatty acid import.

Academic food-supply veterinarians: future demand and likely shortages.

PubMed

Bruce Prince, J; Andrus, David M; Gwinner, Kevin

2006-01-01

The future demand for and potential shortages of food-supply veterinarians have been the subject of much concern. Using the Delphi forecasting method in a three-phase Web-based survey process, a panel of experts identified the trends and issues shaping the demand for and supply of academic food-animal veterinarians, then forecasted the likely future demand and shortages of food-supply veterinarians employed in academic institutions in the United States and Canada through 2016. The results indicate that there will be increasing future demand and persistent shortages of academic food-supply veterinarians unless current trends are countered with targeted, strategic action. The Delphi panel also evaluated the effectiveness of several strategies for reversing current trends and increasing the number of food-supply veterinarians entering into academic careers. Academic food-supply veterinarians are a key link in the system that produces food-supply veterinarians for all sectors (private practice, government service, etc.); shortages in the academic sector will amplify shortages wherever food-supply veterinarians are needed. Even fairly small shortages have significant public-health, food-safety, animal-welfare, and bio-security implications. Recent events demonstrate that in an increasingly interconnected global economic food supply system, national economies and public health are at risk unless an adequate supply of appropriately trained food-supply veterinarians is available to counter a wide variety of threats ranging from animal and zoonotic diseases to bioterrorism.

Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

PubMed

Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

2016-04-01

To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The environmental impact of future coal production and use in the EEC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1983-01-01

The aims of this study are to assess the expected increased levels of coal consumption in the European Community up to the year 2000; to estimate to what extent consumer demand is likely to be met by EEC production; to determine the level of polluting emissions which are likely to derive from changes in coal consumption and production; and finally, to compare the environmental impact of alternative, existing or developing means of coal utilisation. Contents: Conclusions; Future coal supply and demand in the EEC; Environmental consequences of coal production and use; Coal extraction; Transport and storage; Coal combustion: air pollution;more » Coal combustion: water pollution; Pollution from solid wastes; Coal conversion process; Environmental control technology; Bibliography.« less

Vulnerability of supply basins to demand from multiple cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, J. C.; Gorelick, S.

2013-12-01

Humans have appropriated more than half of the world's available water resources, and continued population growth and climate change threaten to put increasing pressure on remaining supplies. Many cities have constructed infrastructure to collect, transport from and store water at distant locations. Supply basins can become vulnerable if there are multiple users depending on the same supply system or network. Basin vulnerability assessments often only report the impacts of local demands on system health, but rarely account future stress from multi-urban demands. This study presents a global assessment of urban impacts on supply basins. Specifically, hydrologic and regulatory information are used to quantify the level of supply basin stress created by demand from multiple cities. The aim is to identify at-risk basins. This study focuses on large urban areas (generally over 1 million people) that use surface water (n=412). The stress on supply water basins by urban demand was based on three parameters: 1) the number of cities using a basin for water supply, 2) the number of alternative urban sources (e.g. lakes, reservoirs, rivers) within the supply basin, and 3) the percent of available surface water in each basin that is required to meet the total of urban and environmental demands. The degree of management within each basin is assessed using information on federal water policies and local basin management plans.

Modelling inter-supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhaobo; Teng, Chunxian; Zhang, Ding; Sun, Jiayi

2016-05-01

This paper proposes a comprehensive model for studying supply chain versus supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption. We assume that there are supply chains with heterogeneous supply network structures that compete at multiple demand markets. Each supply chain is comprised of internal and external firms. The internal firms are coordinated in production and distribution and share some common but limited resources within the supply chain, whereas the external firms are independent and do not share the internal resources. The supply chain managers strive to develop optimal strategies in terms of production level and resource allocation in maximising their profit while facing competition at the end market. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium of this inter-supply chain competition is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We further study the case when there is demand disruption in the plan-execution phase. In such a case, the managers need to revise their planned strategy in order to maximise their profit with the new demand under disruption and minimise the cost of change. We present a bi-criteria decision-making model for supply chain managers and develop the optimal conditions in equilibrium, which again can be formulated by another variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

Supply and Demand for Scientists and Engineers. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vetter, Betty M.

This report, which includes 51 tables and charts, examines past, present, and future imbalances in the supply of and demand for scientists and engineers. The supply is assessed by source and by field, and compared with current and short-range demand for new graduates and for experienced scientists and engineers, including assessment of the…

42 CFR 84.156 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, demand class; minimum requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... C supplied-air respirator, demand class; minimum requirements. (a) Inhalation resistance shall not... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, demand class; minimum requirements. 84.156 Section 84.156 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE...

Occupational Supply and Demand in the State of Washington: Phase II Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sommers, Paul; Heg, Deena

Occupational supply and demand in Washington State was examined by comparing projected supplies of skilled workers coming out of the state's community and technical colleges against the projected demand among Washington employers for people qualified to enter particular occupations. The analysis was based on a January 2000 report, information…

42 CFR 84.157 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. (a) The static... 42 Public Health 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. 84.157 Section 84.157 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH...

42 CFR 84.157 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. (a) The static... 42 Public Health 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. 84.157 Section 84.157 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH...

42 CFR 84.157 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. (a) The static... 42 Public Health 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. 84.157 Section 84.157 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH...

Intermittent Demand Forecasting in a Tertiary Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Cheng, Chen-Yang; Chiang, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Meng-Yin

2016-10-01

Forecasts of the demand for medical supplies both directly and indirectly affect the operating costs and the quality of the care provided by health care institutions. Specifically, overestimating demand induces an inventory surplus, whereas underestimating demand possibly compromises patient safety. Uncertainty in forecasting the consumption of medical supplies generates intermittent demand events. The intermittent demand patterns for medical supplies are generally classified as lumpy, erratic, smooth, and slow-moving demand. This study was conducted with the purpose of advancing a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit's efforts to achieve a high level of accuracy in its forecasting of the demand for medical supplies. On this point, several demand forecasting methods were compared in terms of the forecast accuracy of each. The results confirm that applying Croston's method combined with a single exponential smoothing method yields the most accurate results for forecasting lumpy, erratic, and slow-moving demand, whereas the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method is the most suitable for forecasting smooth demand. In addition, when the classification of demand consumption patterns were combined with the demand forecasting models, the forecasting errors were minimized, indicating that this classification framework can play a role in improving patient safety and reducing inventory management costs in health care institutions.

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Caldwell, P.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S.; Huber-Lee, A.; Madden, N.

2013-09-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model which considers regional trends in both water supply and demand. A snapshot of contemporary annual water demand is compared against different water supply regimes, including current average supplies, current extreme-year supplies, and projected future average surface water flows under a changing climate. In addition, we investigate the contributions of different water demand sectors to current water stress. On average, water supplies are stressed, meaning that demands for water outstrip natural supplies in over 9% of the 2103 watersheds examined. These watersheds rely on reservoir storage, conveyance systems, and groundwater to meet current water demands. Overall, agriculture is the major demand-side driver of water stress in the US, whereas municipal stress is isolated to southern California. Water stress introduced by cooling water demands for power plants is punctuated across the US, indicating that a single power plant has the potential to stress water supplies at the watershed scale. On the supply side, watersheds in the western US are particularly sensitive to low flow events and projected long-term shifts in flow driven by climate change. The WaSSI results imply that not only are water resources in the southwest in particular at risk, but that there are also potential vulnerabilities to specific sectors, even in the ‘water-rich’ southeast.

Supplier-induced demand: re-examining identification and misspecification in cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Peacock, Stuart J; Richardson, Jeffrey R J

2007-09-01

This paper re-examines criticisms of cross-sectional methods used to test for supplier-induced demand (SID) and re-evaluates the empirical evidence using data from Australian medical services. Cross-sectional studies of SID have been criticised on two grounds. First, and most important, the inclusion of the doctor supply in the demand equation leads to an identification problem. This criticism is shown to be invalid, as the doctor supply variable is stochastic and depends upon a variety of other variables including the desirability of the location. Second, cross-sectional studies of SID fail diagnostic tests and produce artefactual findings due to model misspecification. Contrary to this, the re-evaluation of cross-sectional Australian data indicate that demand equations that do not include the doctor supply are misspecified. Empirical evidence from the re-evaluation of Australian medical services data supports the notion of SID. Demand and supply equations are well specified and have very good explanatory power. The demand equation is identified and the desirability of a location is an important predictor of the doctor supply. Results show an average price elasticity of demand of 0.22 and an average elasticity of demand with respect to the doctor supply of 0.46, with the impact of SID becoming stronger as the doctor supply rises. The conclusion we draw from this paper is that two of the main criticisms of the empirical evidence supporting the SID hypothesis have been inappropriately levelled at the methods used. More importantly, SID provides a satisfactory, and robust, explanation of the empirical data on the demand for medical services in Australia.

Energy environment study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangways, R.

1981-01-01

The international demand for and supply of oil between the years 1980 and 2000 is assessed and future world oil prices and their implications for the price of jet fuel are estimated. Three critical questions are investigated: (1) how long will the world supply of oil continue to keep pace with its demand under likely trends in its use and discovery; (2) at what price will demand and supply clear the world oil market; (3) what does the analysis imply about the price of jet fuel. Projection of oil price is based upon supply and demand, which is consistent with microeconomic analysis.

Patterns of control of maximum metabolic rate in humans.

PubMed

Hochachka, Peter W; Beatty, Cheryl L

2003-09-01

In this analysis, four performance phenotypes were used to compare mechanisms of control of aerobic maximum metabolic rate (MMR): (i) untrained sedentary (US) subjects, as a reference group against which to compare (ii) power trained (PT), (iii) endurance trained (ET) and (iv) high altitude adapted native (HA) subject groups. Sprinters represented the PT group; long distance runners illustrated the ET group; and Quechuas represented the HA group. Numerous recent studies have identified contributors to control on both the adenosine triphosphate (ATP) supply side and the ATP demand side of ATP turnover. Control coefficients or c(i) values were defined as fractional change in MMR/fractional change in the capacity of any given step in ATP turnover. From the best available evidence it appears that at MMR all five of the major steps in energy delivery (namely, ventilation, pulmonary diffusion, cardiac output, tissue capillary - mitochondrial O(2) transfer, and aerobic cell metabolism per se) approach an upper functional ceiling, with control strength being distributed amongst the various O(2) flux steps. On the energy demand side, the situation is somewhat simplified since at MMR approximately 90% of O(2)-based ATP synthesis is used for actomyosin (AM) and Ca(2+) ATPases; at MMR these two ATP demand rates also appear to be near an upper functional ceiling. In consequence, at MMR the control contributions or c(i) values are rather evenly divided amongst all seven major steps in ATP supply and ATP demand pathways right to the point of fatigue. Relative to US (the reference group), in PT subjects at MMR control strength shifts towards O(2) delivery steps (ventilation, pulmonary diffusion and cardiac output). In contrast in ET and HA subjects at MMR control shifts towards the energy demand steps (AM and Ca(2+) ATPases), and more control strength is focussed on tissue level ATP supply and ATP demand. One obvious advantage of the ET and HA control pattern is improved metabolite homeostasis. Another possibility is that, with some reserve capacity in the O(2) delivery steps and control focussed on ATP turnover at the tissue level, nature has designed the ideal 'endurance machine'.

Control of maximum metabolic rate in humans: dependence on performance phenotypes.

PubMed

Hochachka, Peter W; Burelle, Yan

2004-01-01

Borrowing from metabolic control analysis the concept of control coefficients or ci values, defined as fractional change in MMR/fractional change in the capacity of any given step in ATP turnover, we used four performance phenotypes to compare mechanisms of control of aerobic maximum metabolic rate (MMR): (i) untrained sedentary (US) subjects, as a reference group against which to compare (ii) power trained (PT), (iii) endurance trained (ET), and (iv) high altitude adapted native (HA) subject groups. Sprinters represented the PT group; long distance runners illustrated the ET group; and Andean natives represented the HA group. Numerous recent studies have identified contributors to control on both the adenosine triphosphate (ATP) supply side and the ATP demand side of ATP turnover. From the best available evidence it appears that at MMR all five of the major steps in energy delivery (namely, ventilation, pulmonary diffusion, cardiac output, tissue capillary--mitochondrial O2 transfer, and aerobic cell metabolism per se) approach an upper functional ceiling, with control strength being distributed amongst the various O2 flux steps. On the energy demand side, the situation is somewhat simplified since at MMR approximately 90% of O2-based ATP synthesis is used for actomyosin (AM) and Ca2+ ATPases; at MMR these two ATP demand rates also appear to be near an upper functional ceiling. In consequence, at MMR the control contributions or ci values are distributed amongst all seven major steps in ATP supply and ATP demand pathways right to the point of fatigue. Relative to US (the reference group), in PT subjects at MMR control strength shifts towards O2 delivery steps (ventilation, pulmonary diffusion, and cardiac output); here physiological regulation clearly dominates MMR control. In contrast in ET and HA subjects at MMR control shifts towards the energy demand steps (AM and Ca2+ ATPases), and more control strength is focussed on tissue level ATP supply and ATP demand. One obvious advantage of the ET and HA biochemical-level control is improved metabolite homeostasis. Additionally, with some reserve capacity in the O2 delivery steps, the focussing of control on ATP turnover at the tissue level has allowed nature to improve on an 'endurance machine' design.

Identifying Pathways toward Sustainable Electricity Supply and Demand Using an Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Model for Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alabbas, Nabeel H.

Despite holding 16% of proved oil reserves in the world, Saudi Arabia might be on an unsustainable path to become a net oil importer by the 2030s. Decades of domestic energy subsidies accompanied by a high population growth rate have encouraged inefficient production and high domestic consumption of fossil fuel energy, which has resulted in environmental degradation, and significant social and economic consequences. In addition, the government's dependence on oil as a main source of revenue (89%) to finance its development programs cannot be sustained due to oil's exhaustible nature and rapidly increasing domestic consumption. The electricity and water sectors consume more energy than other sectors. The literature review revealed that electricity use in Saudi Arabia is following an unsustainable path (7-8% annual growth over the last decade). The water sector is another major energy consumer due to an unprecedented demand for water in the Kingdom (18% of world's total desalinated water output with per capita consumption is twice the world average). Multiple entities have been involved in fragmented planning activities on the supply-side as well as to a certain extent on the demand-side; moreover, comprehensive integrated resource strategic plans have been lacking at the national level. This dissertation established an integrated resource strategic planning (IRSP) model for Saudi Arabia's electricity and water sectors. The IRSP can clearly determine the Kingdom's future vision of its utility sector, including goals, policies, programs, and an execution timetable, taking into consideration economic, environmental and social benefits. Also, a weather-based hybrid end-use econometric demand forecasting model was developed to project electricity demand until 2040. The analytical economic efficiency and technical assessments reveal that Saudi Arabia can supply almost 75% of its electricity from renewable energy sources with a significant achievable potential for saving 26% of peak demand by 2040. However, the development of sustainable energy systems in the country's utility sector will not occur automatically. Thus, several actions are proposed for developing the sustainable energy roadmap, strategies, and policies for Saudi Arabia's utility sector, supporting its position as a new vehicle of growth that facilitates national and socio-economic development and economic diversification plan.

Energy supply and demand in California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, E. D.

1978-01-01

The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

Elderly demand for family-based care and support: evidence from a social intervention strategy.

PubMed

Aboagye, Emmanuel; Agyemang, Otuo Serebour; Tjerbo, Trond

2013-12-06

This paper examines the influence of the national health insurance scheme on elderly demand for family-based care and support. It contributes to the growing concern on the rapid increase in the elderly population globally using micro-level social theory to examine the influence the health insurance has on elderly demand for family support. A qualitative case study approach is applied to construct a comprehensive and thick description of how the national health insurance scheme influences the elderly in their demand for family support.Through focused interviews and direct observation of six selected cases, in-depth information on primary carers, living arrangement and the interaction between the health insurance as structure and elders as agents are analyzed. The study highlights that the interaction between the elderly and the national health insurance scheme has produced a new stratum of relationship between the elderly and their primary carers. Consequently, this has created equilibrium between the elderly demand for support and support made available by their primary carers. As the demand of the elderly for support is declining, supply of support by family members for the elderly is also on the decline.

Elderly Demand for Family-based Care and Support: Evidence from a Social Intervention Strategy

PubMed Central

Aboagye, Emmanuel; Agyemang, Otuo Serebour; Tjerbo, Trond

2014-01-01

This paper examines the influence of the national health insurance scheme on elderly demand for family-based care and support. It contributes to the growing concern on the rapid increase in the elderly population globally using micro-level social theory to examine the influence the health insurance has on elderly demand for family support. A qualitative case study approach is applied to construct a comprehensive and thick description of how the national health insurance scheme influences the elderly in their demand for family support. Through focused interviews and direct observation of six selected cases, in-depth information on primary carers, living arrangement and the interaction between the health insurance as structure and elders as agents are analyzed. The study highlights that the interaction between the elderly and the national health insurance scheme has produced a new stratum of relationship between the elderly and their primary carers. Consequently, this has created equilibrium between the elderly demand for support and support made available by their primary carers. As the demand of the elderly for support is declining, supply of support by family members for the elderly is also on the decline. PMID:24576369

Outdoor recreation in American life: a national assessment of demand and supply trends.

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; Carter Betz; J. Michael Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Shela H. Mou; John C. Bergstrom; R. Jeff Teasley; Michael A. Tarrant; John Loomis

1999-01-01

Outdoor Recreation in American Life is the United States' only ongoing, comprehensive assessment of the trends, current situation, and likely future of outdoor recreation demand and supply. New and different aspects of national demand, resemblances to the past, and trends in the supply of outdoor recreation opportunities, both from the private and public sectors,...

Teacher Supply and Demand in Maryland 1987-1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maryland State Board for Higher Education, Annapolis.

This report presents an overview of teacher supply and demand in the state of Maryland. Section I provides a description of the national debate about teacher shortages and raises the question of where imbalances in the supply and demand for teachers exist and how they may be rectified. In section II, the general purposes of the study are presented…

Projected Supply, Demand, and Shortages of Registered Nurses, 2000-2020.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Health Resources and Services Administration (DHHS/PHS), Rockville, MD. National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

The supply, demand, and shortages of registered nurses (RNs) were projected and analyzed for 2000-2020. According to the analysis, the national supply of full-time-equivalent registered nurses in 2000 was estimated at 1.89 million versus an estimated demand of 2 million, leaving a shortage of 110,000 (6%). The shortage is expected to grow…

Altruism in the "Market" for Giving and Receiving: A Case of Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoo, Jang H.; Harrison, William B.

1989-01-01

Examines donations to colleges as an outcome of simultaneously solving supply and demand functions. Donors demand attention and prestige supplied by college fund raisers. Using data from 13 colleges, this econometric study shows that the demand side has a unitary elasticity concerning per person donations, while the supply side seems inelastic.…

Wood supply and demand

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

2011-01-01

At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

[Influence factors on supply and demand changes in the field of acupuncture and moxibustion].

PubMed

Liu, Bin; Li, Ping

2011-11-01

Based on principles of health economy and the present situation, the possibility and regularity on changes in the supply and demand field of acupuncture and moxibustion through various viewpoints were analyzed, which included demand and supply elasticity of acup-mox services to market price and the relevant factors, categories and nature of acup-mox services, business idea of supplier on the strength of marginal cost and marginal benefit, expenditure level and inclination of demander, complementary and substitutive treatment of acup-mox therapy, and the relevant time and geographic factors to change in quantity demand and supply. Therefore, it could be applied as reference to redaction and reform of the relevant health economics policy by health administrative management.

Water-Resources Manpower: Supply and Demand Patterns to 1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, James E.

Relating the supply of scientific manpower to the educational potential of the general population and the productive capacity of the educational system, this study disaggregates independent projections of scientific manpower supply and demand to yield projections for water resources manpower. This supply of engineers, natural scientists, and…

Microeconomics, Private Security, and the Significance to Operational Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-23

of microeconomic principles of supply-demand theory by looking at specific conceptual variables to determine the relationship and influence on the... microeconomic principles of supply-demand theory by looking at specific conceptual variables to determine the relationship and influence on the...study to include existing conceptual understandings of the industry, the microeconomic principles of supply- demand theory, the theoretic framework

Structural Issues in the Supply and Demand for Scientific Manpower: Implications for National Manpower Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weathersby, George B.

This paper argues that, in addition to responding to surface manifestations of imbalance in scientific manpower supply and demand, we should examine and understand far better than we now do the nature and extent of the structural forces operative on the supply and demand of scientific talent. The author reviewed the literature and the parameters…

What State Supply and Demand Studies Tell Us about Special Education Personnel Needs. Practice Brief. Spring 2011

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muller, Eve

2011-01-01

Critical to any comprehensive plan for addressing personnel shortages in the field of special education is the gathering of data on supply and demand at the state and local education agency (LEA) levels. Many states now conduct regular supply and demand studies in order to inform decisions regarding the recruitment, preparation and retention of…

Job Supply and Demand for University Graduates in Spain: A (Relative) Mismatch Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parellada, Marti; Duch, Nestor; Alvarez, Montserrat

2009-01-01

This article provides an analysis of job supply by Spanish firms and the demand for work, and the mismatch that occurs between these two variables. Data are taken for the year 2006, with particular attention to jobs offered by firms that require people with university degrees or other higher education qualifications. Demand and supply are broken…

Supply and demand for wood: a worldwide perspective?

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

1998-01-01

In a unique effort to compare and contrast differing views on future supply and demand for wood, a study found that demand for wood will increase, but there is no evidence of a crisis at the world scale. Opportunities to increase wood production, however, are limited and trade-offs among competing uses of forests are inevitable. A complex of factors determine supply...

Flood Tides and Aging Swimmers: An Exploration into the Supply and Demand for Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerchner, Charles T.

The teacher supply and demand problem is considered along three dimensions: (1) the aggregate balance between supply and demand, and the balance in different education specialties and different areas of the country; (2) the composition of the teacher work force, its age, and level of training; and (3) the apparent quality of the work force and the…

U.S. hardwood fiber demand and supply situation : globalization and structural change

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Irene Durbak

2005-01-01

This paper reviews demand and supply trends for hardwood fiber in the United States. The objective is to illustrate nationwide shifts in demand and supply and show how the hardwood pulpwood market reacts to those shifts at a regional level. Thus, the market situation is illustrated using an economic rationale, and trends are projected under assumptions about future...

Supply and Demand for College Graduates in the South, 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Marilu H.; Galambos, Eva C.

Data concerning job prospects and supply/demand figures for 1985 college graduates in the southern United States are presented in this booklet prepared by the Southern Regional Education Board. Supply is defined as the number of entrants into the job market, and demand as the number of job openings in that year. The data provide an update of…

Wood fiber supply and demand in the United States.

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog; Peter J. Ince; Richard W. Haynes

1998-01-01

The USDA Forest Service is preparing a national assessment of supply and demand for wood fiber resources in the United States. Based in part on preliminary results of this assessment and partly on our 1993 Assessment, this paper outlines trends and gives an outlook for demand and trade for timber and fiber products, changes in technology, and wood fiber resource supply...

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

2013-11-01

An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River Basin sees an increasing sensitivity to changes in demand in future periods. It further shows that the supply deficit is six times as sensitive as the actual supply to changes in flow and demand. A spatial analysis of the supply deficit demonstrates vulnerabilities of urban areas located along mainstream with limited storage.

Gas dispersion measurements using a mobile Raman lidar system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, J. D.; Brown, D. R.

1986-01-01

The exploitation of natural gas resources to supply energy demands has resulted in the need to engineer pipelines and plants capable of handling extremely high pressures and throughputs. Consequently, more attention has been directed to evaluating the consequences of releases of material whether accidental or deliberate in nature. An important aspect of assessing the consequences of a release is an understanding of how gas disperses in the atmosphere over a wide range of release and atmospheric conditions. The most cost effective way of providing such information is through the development and use of reliable theoretical prediction methods. The need for some form of remote sensing device was identified. The various possibilities studied led to the conclusion that LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) offered the most suitable method. The system designed and built is described, and its recent use in monitoring operational ventings from a high pressure transmission system is discussed.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE PAGES

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; ...

2017-11-15

Climate change is projected to increase hydropower generation in some parts of the world and decrease it in others. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector at the global scale. Regional hydropower projections are developed by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We find that climate-driven changes in hydropower generation may shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies. This then causes significantlymore » altered power sector CO 2 emissions in several hydro-dependent regions, although the net global impact is modest. For drying regions, we estimate a global, cumulative investment need of approximately one trillion dollars (±$500 billion) this century to make up for deteriorated hydropower generation caused by climate change. Total investments avoided are of a similar magnitude across regions projected to experience increased precipitation. Investment risks and opportunities are concentrated in hydro-dependent countries for which significant climate change is expected. Various countries throughout the Balkans, Latin America and Southern Africa are most vulnerable, whilst Norway, Canada, and Bhutan emerge as clear beneficiaries.« less

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.

Climate change is projected to increase hydropower generation in some parts of the world and decrease it in others. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector at the global scale. Regional hydropower projections are developed by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We find that climate-driven changes in hydropower generation may shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies. This then causes significantlymore » altered power sector CO 2 emissions in several hydro-dependent regions, although the net global impact is modest. For drying regions, we estimate a global, cumulative investment need of approximately one trillion dollars (±$500 billion) this century to make up for deteriorated hydropower generation caused by climate change. Total investments avoided are of a similar magnitude across regions projected to experience increased precipitation. Investment risks and opportunities are concentrated in hydro-dependent countries for which significant climate change is expected. Various countries throughout the Balkans, Latin America and Southern Africa are most vulnerable, whilst Norway, Canada, and Bhutan emerge as clear beneficiaries.« less

The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance.

PubMed

Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

2016-01-01

In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors' influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of consumer rights protection and the level of legal protection of consumer rights on the risk spread of food safety. This model contributes to the explicit investigation of the influence relationship among supply-demand factors, the regulation behavioral choice of government, the behavioral choice of food supply chain members and food safety risk spread. And this paper provides a new viewpoint for considering food safety risk spread in the food supply chain, which has a great reference for food safety management.

Critical Metals in Strategic Low-carbon Energy Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. L.

2012-04-01

Due to the rapid growth in demand for certain materials, compounded by political risks associated with the geographical concentration of the supply of them, shortages of materials could be a potential bottleneck to the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies. Consequently, an assessment has been carried out to ascertain whether such shortages could jeopardise the objectives of the EU's Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan), especially in the six low-carbon energy technologies of SET-Plan, namely: nuclear, solar, wind, bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and electricity grids. The assessment identified 14 metals for which the deployment of the six technologies will require 1% or more (and in some cases, much more) of current world supply per annum between 2020 and 2030. Following a more critical examination, based on the likelihood of rapid future global demand growth, limitations to expanding supply in the short to medium term, and the concentration of supply and political risks associated with key suppliers, 5 of the 14 metals were pinpointed to be at high risk, namely: the rare earth metals neodymium and dysprosium (for wind technology), and the by-products (from the processing of other metals) indium, tellurium and gallium (for photovoltaic technologies). In addition, the work has explored potential mitigation strategies, ranging from expanding European output, increasing recycling and reuse to reducing waste and finding substitutes for these metals in their main applications. Furthermore, recommendations are provided which include closely working with the EU's Raw Materials Initiative; supporting efforts to ensure reliable supply of ore concentrates at competitive prices; promoting R&D and demonstration projects on new lower cost separation processes; and promoting the further development of recycling technologies and increasing end-of-life collection

General practitioner workforce planning: assessment of four policy directions.

PubMed

Teljeur, Conor; Thomas, Stephen; O'Kelly, Fergus D; O'Dowd, Tom

2010-06-02

Estimating the supply of GPs into the future is important in forecasting shortages. The lengthy training process for medicine means that adjusting supply to meet demand in a timely fashion is problematic. This study uses Ireland as a case study to determine the future demand and supply of GPs and to assess the potential impact of several possible interventions to address future shortages. Demand was estimated by applying GP visit rates by age and sex to national population projections. Supply was modelled using a range of parameters derived from two national surveys of GPs. A stochastic modelling approach was adopted to determine the probable future supply of GPs. Four policy interventions were tested: increasing vocational training places; recruiting GPs from abroad; incentivising later retirement; increasing nurse substitution to enable practice nurses to deliver more services. Relative to most other European countries, Ireland has few GPs per capita. Ireland has an ageing population and demand is estimated to increase by 19% by 2021. Without intervention, the supply of GPs will be 5.7% less than required in 2021. Increasing training places will enable supply to meet demand but only after 2019. Recruiting GPs from overseas will enable supply to meet demand continuously if the number recruited is approximately 0.8 per cent of the current workforce per annum. Later retirement has only a short-term impact. Nurse substitution can enable supply to meet demand but only if large numbers of practice nurses are recruited and allowed to deliver a wide range of GP services. A significant shortfall in GP supply is predicted for Ireland unless recruitment is increased. The shortfall will have numerous knock-on effects including price increases, longer waiting lists and an increased burden on hospitals. Increasing training places will not provide an adequate response to future shortages. Foreign recruitment has ethical considerations but may provide a rapid and effective response. Increased nurse substitution appears to offer the best long-term prospects of addressing GP shortages and presents the opportunity to reshape general practice to meet the demands of the future.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Estimating Demand for and Supply of Pediatric Preventive Dental Care for Children and Identifying Dental Care Shortage Areas, Georgia, 2015.

PubMed

Cao, Shanshan; Gentili, Monica; Griffin, Paul M; Griffin, Susan O; Harati, Pravara; Johnson, Ben; Serban, Nicoleta; Tomar, Scott

Demand for dental care is expected to outpace supply through 2025. The objectives of this study were to determine the extent of pediatric dental care shortages in Georgia and to develop a general method for estimation that can be applied to other states. We estimated supply and demand for pediatric preventive dental care for the 159 counties in Georgia in 2015. We compared pediatric preventive dental care shortage areas (where demand exceeded twice the supply) designated by our methods with dental health professional shortage areas designated by the Health Resources & Services Administration. We estimated caries risk from a multivariate analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data and national census data. We estimated county-level demand based on the time needed to perform preventive dental care services and the proportion of time that dentists spend on pediatric preventive dental care services from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Pediatric preventive dental care supply exceeded demand in Georgia in 75 counties: the average annual county-level pediatric preventive dental care demand was 16 866 hours, and the supply was 32 969 hours. We identified 41 counties as pediatric dental care shortage areas, 14 of which had not been designated by the Health Resources & Services Administration. Age- and service-specific information on dental care shortage areas could result in more efficient provider staffing and geographic targeting.

Are sustainable water resources possible in northwestern India?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.; Perveen, S.; Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.

2012-12-01

Sustainable water resources can have many definitions with the simplest as a supply-demand problem, with climate dictating the supply of water and human water use the demand. One sign of a system that is not sustainable would be falling groundwater tables, as is the case in northwest India. This region serves as the country's breadbasket, and irrigated agriculture is ubiquitous. The state of Punjab alone produces 22% of the country's wheat and 13% of all the country's grains while only accounting for 1.5% of the country's area. Although the region receives an average precipitation of 600mm per year, it is dominated by monsoonal rainfall with streamflow augmented by upstream snowmelt and glacial melt in spring and summer that is released from a large dam into canals. Large agricultural water demands occur both during the rainy season as well as during the drier winter season. Water and food security are inextricably linked here, and when considering how to manage water sustainably, the consequences on agriculture must also be considered. In this study, we evaluate what a sustainable water resources system would look like in this region, accounting for current climate, crop water demands, and available reservoir storage. The effects of multiple water-saving scenarios are considered, such as crop choice, cropped area, and the use of forecasts in irrigation scheduling. We find that the current system is untenable and hard decisions will have to be made by policymakers in order to halt the depletion of groundwater and manage the region's water resources in a sustainable, effective manner. This work serves as a prototype for evaluating water resources in other regions with high seasonal variability in rainfall and streamflow and large irrigation demands.

Deriving local demand for stumpage from estimates of regional supply and demand.

Treesearch

Kent P. Connaughton; Gerard A. Majerus; David H. Jackson

1989-01-01

The local (Forest-level or local-area) demand for stumpage can be derived from estimates of regional supply and demand. The derivation of local demand is justified when the local timber economy is similar to the regional timber economy; a simple regression of local on nonlocal prices can be used as an empirical test of similarity between local and regional economies....

Opportunity for offshore wind to reduce future demand for coal-fired power plants in China with consequent savings in emissions of CO2.

PubMed

Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Chen, Xinyu; Kang, Chongqing

2014-12-16

Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

Policy Analysis of Water Availability and Use Issues for Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruple, John; Keiter, Robert

2010-03-01

Oil shale and oil sands resources located within the intermountain west represent a vast, and as of yet, commercially untapped source of energy. Development will require water, and demand for scarce water resources stands at the front of a long list of barriers to commercialization. Water requirements and the consequences of commercial development will depend on the number, size, and location of facilities, as well as the technologies employed to develop these unconventional fuels. While the details remain unclear, the implication is not – unconventional fuel development will increase demand for water in an arid region where demand for watermore » often exceeds supply. Water demands in excess of supplies have long been the norm in the west, and for more than a century water has been apportioned on a first-come, first-served basis. Unconventional fuel developers who have not already secured water rights stand at the back of a long line and will need to obtain water from willing water purveyors. However, uncertainty regarding the nature and extent of some senior water claims combine with indeterminate interstate river management to cast a cloud over water resource allocation and management. Quantitative and qualitative water requirements associated with Endangered Species protection also stand as barriers to significant water development, and complex water quality regulations will apply to unconventional fuel development. Legal and political decisions can give shape to an indeterminate landscape. Settlement of Northern Ute reserved rights claims would help clarify the worth of existing water rights and viability of alternative sources of supply. Interstate apportionment of the White River would go a long way towards resolving water availability in downstream Utah. And energy policy clarification will help determine the role oil shale and oil sands will play in our nation’s future.« less

Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

2013-04-01

Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers decisions, the operation of the upstream reservoir (Como Lake) is optimised with respect to the real irrigation demand of the crops. Then, the farmers can re-adapt their decisions according with the new optimal operating strategy, thus activating a loop between the two systems that exchange expected supply and irrigation demand. Results show that the proposed interaction between farmers and water managers is able to enhance the efficiency of water management practices, foster crop production and mitigate climate change impacts.

Global Tungsten Demand and Supply Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvořáček, Jaroslav; Sousedíková, Radmila; Vrátný, Tomáš; Jureková, Zdenka

2017-03-01

An estimate of the world tungsten demand and supply until 2018 has been made. The figures were obtained by extrapolating from past trends of tungsten production from1905, and its demand from 1964. In addition, estimate suggestions of major production and investment companies were taken into account with regard to implementations of new projects for mining of tungsten or possible termination of its standing extraction. It can be assumed that tungsten supply will match demand by 2018. This suggestion is conditioned by successful implementation of new tungsten extraction projects, and full application of tungsten recycling methods.

Graduates of Higher Education in the Food and Agricultural Sciences: An Analysis of Supply/Demand Relationships. Volume I--Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Veterinary Medicine.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulter, Kyle Jane, Ed.; Stanton, Marge, Ed.

Information on the current and projected supply of and demand for graduates of higher education in the food and agricultural sciences is presented, based on federal data bases. The supply data are aggregated by 11 educational clusters, and employment demand data are aggregated by eight occupational clusters. Analysis reveals imbalances in the…

Longrun supply and demand of new residential construction in the United States: 1986 to 2040.

Treesearch

Claire A. Montgomery

1989-01-01

A model of U.S. housing demand and supply was developed that projects housing starts for use in long-term forest planning. Housing demand was shown to respond to the current sale price and the user capital cost of housing and to the size and age composition of the population. Current sale price is determined in the new construction market. Supply of new construction...

The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. Materials and Methods A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Results Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. Conclusions This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions. PMID:29124238

Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: a prognosis for 2012-2030.

PubMed

Vanckaviciene, Aurika; Starkiene, Liudvika; Macijauskiene, Jūrate

2014-07-01

This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012-2030. Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios - which are the most probable - revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030-0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers' services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand management scenario. Finally, it will be shown that applying the Meta scenario will improve the water resources from sustainably.

Workforce Projections 2010-2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States.

PubMed

Landry, Michel D; Hack, Laurita M; Coulson, Elizabeth; Freburger, Janet; Johnson, Michael P; Katz, Richard; Kerwin, Joanne; Smith, Megan H; Wessman, Henry C Bud; Venskus, Diana G; Sinnott, Patricia L; Goldstein, Marc

2016-01-01

Health human resources continue to emerge as a critical health policy issue across the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the United States into 2020. A traditional stock-and-flow methodology or model was developed and populated with publicly available data to produce estimates of supply and demand for physical therapists by 2020. Supply was determined by adding the estimated number of physical therapists and the approximation of new graduates to the number of physical therapists who immigrated, minus US graduates who never passed the licensure examination, and an estimated attrition rate in any given year. Demand was determined by using projected US population with health care insurance multiplied by a demand ratio in any given year. The difference between projected supply and demand represented a shortage or surplus of physical therapists. Three separate projection models were developed based on best available data in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Based on these projections, demand for physical therapists in the United States outstrips supply under most assumptions. Workforce projection methodology research is based on assumptions using imperfect data; therefore, the results must be interpreted in terms of overall trends rather than as precise actuarial data-generated absolute numbers from specified forecasting. Outcomes of this projection study provide a foundation for discussion and debate regarding the most effective and efficient ways to influence supply-side variables so as to position physical therapists to meet current and future population demand. Attrition rates or permanent exits out of the profession can have important supply-side effects and appear to have an effect on predicting future shortage or surplus of physical therapists. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

Demand Intensity, Market Parameters and Policy Responses towards Demand and Supply of Private Supplementary Tutoring in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwok, Percy Lai Yin

2010-01-01

Based on some longitudinal studies of private tutoring in twelve cities, towns, municipalities and provinces of China, the paper endeavours to depict demand intensity, articulate market parameters and reflect on policy responses towards the demand-supply mechanism of the vast shadowy educational phenomena at primary and secondary levels. Such…

Teacher Supply & Demand in Michigan and the United States 1994-95.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheetz, L. Patrick; Gratz, Becky

This publication provides analysis of current data on the supply and demand for teachers nationally and in Michigan in 1994-95 along with tips for new teachers who are still seeking jobs. The text covers areas of education where demand is highest including special education and science education, notes the persistent demand for minority teachers…

Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels.

PubMed

Hill, Jason; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Polasky, Stephen; Tiffany, Douglas

2006-07-25

Negative environmental consequences of fossil fuels and concerns about petroleum supplies have spurred the search for renewable transportation biofuels. To be a viable alternative, a biofuel should provide a net energy gain, have environmental benefits, be economically competitive, and be producible in large quantities without reducing food supplies. We use these criteria to evaluate, through life-cycle accounting, ethanol from corn grain and biodiesel from soybeans. Ethanol yields 25% more energy than the energy invested in its production, whereas biodiesel yields 93% more. Compared with ethanol, biodiesel releases just 1.0%, 8.3%, and 13% of the agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and pesticide pollutants, respectively, per net energy gain. Relative to the fossil fuels they displace, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced 12% by the production and combustion of ethanol and 41% by biodiesel. Biodiesel also releases less air pollutants per net energy gain than ethanol. These advantages of biodiesel over ethanol come from lower agricultural inputs and more efficient conversion of feedstocks to fuel. Neither biofuel can replace much petroleum without impacting food supplies. Even dedicating all U.S. corn and soybean production to biofuels would meet only 12% of gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand. Until recent increases in petroleum prices, high production costs made biofuels unprofitable without subsidies. Biodiesel provides sufficient environmental advantages to merit subsidy. Transportation biofuels such as synfuel hydrocarbons or cellulosic ethanol, if produced from low-input biomass grown on agriculturally marginal land or from waste biomass, could provide much greater supplies and environmental benefits than food-based biofuels.

Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Polasky, Stephen; Tiffany, Douglas

2006-01-01

Negative environmental consequences of fossil fuels and concerns about petroleum supplies have spurred the search for renewable transportation biofuels. To be a viable alternative, a biofuel should provide a net energy gain, have environmental benefits, be economically competitive, and be producible in large quantities without reducing food supplies. We use these criteria to evaluate, through life-cycle accounting, ethanol from corn grain and biodiesel from soybeans. Ethanol yields 25% more energy than the energy invested in its production, whereas biodiesel yields 93% more. Compared with ethanol, biodiesel releases just 1.0%, 8.3%, and 13% of the agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and pesticide pollutants, respectively, per net energy gain. Relative to the fossil fuels they displace, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced 12% by the production and combustion of ethanol and 41% by biodiesel. Biodiesel also releases less air pollutants per net energy gain than ethanol. These advantages of biodiesel over ethanol come from lower agricultural inputs and more efficient conversion of feedstocks to fuel. Neither biofuel can replace much petroleum without impacting food supplies. Even dedicating all U.S. corn and soybean production to biofuels would meet only 12% of gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand. Until recent increases in petroleum prices, high production costs made biofuels unprofitable without subsidies. Biodiesel provides sufficient environmental advantages to merit subsidy. Transportation biofuels such as synfuel hydrocarbons or cellulosic ethanol, if produced from low-input biomass grown on agriculturally marginal land or from waste biomass, could provide much greater supplies and environmental benefits than food-based biofuels. PMID:16837571

From the Cover: Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, Jason; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Polasky, Stephen; Tiffany, Douglas

2006-07-01

Negative environmental consequences of fossil fuels and concerns about petroleum supplies have spurred the search for renewable transportation biofuels. To be a viable alternative, a biofuel should provide a net energy gain, have environmental benefits, be economically competitive, and be producible in large quantities without reducing food supplies. We use these criteria to evaluate, through life-cycle accounting, ethanol from corn grain and biodiesel from soybeans. Ethanol yields 25% more energy than the energy invested in its production, whereas biodiesel yields 93% more. Compared with ethanol, biodiesel releases just 1.0%, 8.3%, and 13% of the agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and pesticide pollutants, respectively, per net energy gain. Relative to the fossil fuels they displace, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced 12% by the production and combustion of ethanol and 41% by biodiesel. Biodiesel also releases less air pollutants per net energy gain than ethanol. These advantages of biodiesel over ethanol come from lower agricultural inputs and more efficient conversion of feedstocks to fuel. Neither biofuel can replace much petroleum without impacting food supplies. Even dedicating all U.S. corn and soybean production to biofuels would meet only 12% of gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand. Until recent increases in petroleum prices, high production costs made biofuels unprofitable without subsidies. Biodiesel provides sufficient environmental advantages to merit subsidy. Transportation biofuels such as synfuel hydrocarbons or cellulosic ethanol, if produced from low-input biomass grown on agriculturally marginal land or from waste biomass, could provide much greater supplies and environmental benefits than food-based biofuels. corn | soybean | life-cycle accounting | agriculture | fossil fuel

Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

2018-02-01

A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

PubMed Central

Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. PMID:27219341

The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

PubMed

Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

2016-07-12

To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2015 American College of Rheumatology Workforce Study: Supply and Demand Projections of Adult Rheumatology Workforce, 2015-2030.

PubMed

Battafarano, Daniel F; Ditmyer, Marcia; Bolster, Marcy B; Fitzgerald, John D; Deal, Chad; Bass, Ann R; Molina, Rodolfo; Erickson, Alan R; Hausmann, Jonathan S; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Imundo, Lisa F; Smith, Benjamin J; Jones, Karla; Greene, Kamilah; Monrad, Seetha U

2018-04-01

To describe the character and composition of the 2015 US adult rheumatology workforce, evaluate workforce trends, and project supply and demand for clinical rheumatology care for 2015-2030. The 2015 Workforce Study of Rheumatology Specialists in the US used primary and secondary data sources to estimate the baseline adult rheumatology workforce and determine demographic and geographic factors relevant to workforce modeling. Supply and demand was projected through 2030, utilizing data-driven estimations regarding the proportion and clinical full-time equivalent (FTE) of academic versus nonacademic practitioners. The 2015 adult workforce (physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants) was estimated to be 6,013 providers (5,415 clinical FTE). At baseline, the estimated demand exceeded the supply of clinical FTE by 700 (12.9%). By 2030, the supply of rheumatology clinical providers is projected to fall to 4,882 providers, or 4,051 clinical FTE (a 25.2% decrease in supply from 2015 baseline levels). Demand in 2030 is projected to exceed supply by 4,133 clinical FTE (102%). The adult rheumatology workforce projections reflect a major demographic and geographic shift that will significantly impact the supply of the future workforce by 2030. These shifts include baby-boomer retirements, a millennial predominance, and an increase of female and part-time providers, in parallel with an increased demand for adult rheumatology care due to the growing and aging US population. Regional and innovative strategies will be necessary to manage access to care and reduce barriers to care for rheumatology patients. © 2018, American College of Rheumatology.

Stabilizing supply of artemisinin and artemisinin-based combination therapy in an era of wide-spread scale-up.

PubMed

Shretta, Rima; Yadav, Prashant

2012-12-02

The global demand for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has grown sharply since its recommendation by the World Health Organization in 2002. However, a combination of financing and programmatic uncertainties, limited suppliers of finished products, information opacity across the different tiers in the supply chain, and widespread fluctuations in raw material prices have together contributed to a market fraught with demand and supply uncertainties and price volatility. Various short-term solutions have been deployed to alleviate supply shortages caused by these challenges; however, new mechanisms are required to build resilience into the supply chain. This review concludes that a mix of strategies is required to stabilize the artemisinin and ACT market. First, better and more effective pooling of demand and supply risks and better contracting to allow risk sharing among the stakeholders are needed. Physical and financial buffer stocks will enable better matching of demand and supply in the short and medium term. Secondly, physical buffers will allow stable supplies when there are procurement and supply management challenges while financial buffer funds will address issues around funding disruptions. Finally, in the medium to long term, significant investments in country level system strengthening will be required to minimize national level demand uncertainties. In addition a voluntary standard for extractors to ensure appropriate purchasing and sales practices as well as minimum quality and ethical standards could help stabilize the artemisinin market in the long term.

Stabilizing supply of artemisinin and artemisinin-based combination therapy in an era of wide-spread scale-up

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The global demand for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has grown sharply since its recommendation by the World Health Organization in 2002. However, a combination of financing and programmatic uncertainties, limited suppliers of finished products, information opacity across the different tiers in the supply chain, and widespread fluctuations in raw material prices have together contributed to a market fraught with demand and supply uncertainties and price volatility. Various short-term solutions have been deployed to alleviate supply shortages caused by these challenges; however, new mechanisms are required to build resilience into the supply chain. This review concludes that a mix of strategies is required to stabilize the artemisinin and ACT market. First, better and more effective pooling of demand and supply risks and better contracting to allow risk sharing among the stakeholders are needed. Physical and financial buffer stocks will enable better matching of demand and supply in the short and medium term. Secondly, physical buffers will allow stable supplies when there are procurement and supply management challenges while financial buffer funds will address issues around funding disruptions. Finally, in the medium to long term, significant investments in country level system strengthening will be required to minimize national level demand uncertainties. In addition a voluntary standard for extractors to ensure appropriate purchasing and sales practices as well as minimum quality and ethical standards could help stabilize the artemisinin market in the long term. PMID:23198961

Intrinsic gas production kinetics of selected intermediates in anaerobic filters for demand-orientated energy supply.

PubMed

Krümpel, Johannes Hagen; Illi, Lukas; Lemmer, Andreas

2018-03-01

As a consequence of a growing share of solar and wind power, recent research on biogas production highlighted a need for demand-orientated, flexible gas production to provide grid services and enable a decentralized stabilization of the electricity infrastructure. Two-staged anaerobic digestion is particularly suitable for shifting the methane production into times of higher demand due to the spatio-temporal separation of hydrolysis and methanogenesis. To provide a basis for predicting gas production in an anaerobic filter, kinetic parameters of gas production have been determined experimentally in this study. A new methodology is used, enabling their determination during continuous operation. An order in methane production rate could be established by comparing the half lives of methane production. The order was beginning with the fastest: acetic acid>ethanol>butyric acid>iso-butyric acid>valeric acid>propionic acid>1,2propanediol>lactic acid. However, the mixture of a natural hydrolysate from the acidification tank appeared to produce methane faster than all single components tested.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

2015-06-01

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in conventional facilities will face additional weather-volatility through the monsoonal impact on the length and frequency of production periods (i.e. their load-duration curves).

World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ): Global Activity Module

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

The World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) is a comprehensive, mid?term energy forecasting and policy analysis tool used by EIA. WEPS projects energy supply, demand, and prices by country or region, given assumptions about the state of various economies, international energy markets, and energy policies. The Global Activity Module (GLAM) provides projections of economic driver variables for use by the supply, demand, and conversion modules of WEPS . GLAM’s baseline economic projection contains the economic assumptions used in WEPS to help determine energy demand and supply. GLAM can also provide WEPS with alternative economic assumptions representing a range of uncertainty about economic growth. The resulting economic impacts of such assumptions are inputs to the remaining supply and demand modules of WEPS .

Genealogy profiling through strain improvement by using metabolic network analysis: metabolic flux genealogy of several generations of lysine-producing corynebacteria.

PubMed

Wittmann, Christoph; Heinzle, Elmar

2002-12-01

A comprehensive approach of metabolite balancing, (13)C tracer studies, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, and isotopomer modeling was applied for comparative metabolic network analysis of a genealogy of five successive generations of lysine-producing Corynebacterium glutamicum. The five strains examined (C. glutamicum ATCC 13032, 13287, 21253, 21526, and 21543) were previously obtained by random mutagenesis and selection. Throughout the genealogy, the lysine yield in batch cultures increased markedly from 1.2 to 24.9% relative to the glucose uptake flux. Strain optimization was accompanied by significant changes in intracellular flux distributions. The relative pentose phosphate pathway (PPP) flux successively increased, clearly corresponding to the product yield. Moreover, the anaplerotic net flux increased almost twofold as a consequence of concerted regulation of C(3) carboxylation and C(4) decarboxylation fluxes to cover the increased demand for lysine formation; thus, the overall increase was a consequence of concerted regulation of C(3) carboxylation and C(4) decarboxylation fluxes. The relative flux through isocitrate dehydrogenase dropped from 82.7% in the wild type to 59.9% in the lysine-producing mutants. In contrast to the NADPH demand, which increased from 109 to 172% due to the increasing lysine yield, the overall NADPH supply remained constant between 185 and 196%, resulting in a decrease in the apparent NADPH excess through strain optimization. Extrapolated to industrial lysine producers, the NADPH supply might become a limiting factor. The relative contributions of PPP and the tricarboxylic acid cycle to NADPH generation changed markedly, indicating that C. glutamicum is able to maintain a constant supply of NADPH under completely different flux conditions. Statistical analysis by a Monte Carlo approach revealed high precision for the estimated fluxes, underlining the fact that the observed differences were clearly strain specific.

Genealogy Profiling through Strain Improvement by Using Metabolic Network Analysis: Metabolic Flux Genealogy of Several Generations of Lysine-Producing Corynebacteria

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Christoph; Heinzle, Elmar

2002-01-01

A comprehensive approach of metabolite balancing, 13C tracer studies, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, and isotopomer modeling was applied for comparative metabolic network analysis of a genealogy of five successive generations of lysine-producing Corynebacterium glutamicum. The five strains examined (C. glutamicum ATCC 13032, 13287, 21253, 21526, and 21543) were previously obtained by random mutagenesis and selection. Throughout the genealogy, the lysine yield in batch cultures increased markedly from 1.2 to 24.9% relative to the glucose uptake flux. Strain optimization was accompanied by significant changes in intracellular flux distributions. The relative pentose phosphate pathway (PPP) flux successively increased, clearly corresponding to the product yield. Moreover, the anaplerotic net flux increased almost twofold as a consequence of concerted regulation of C3 carboxylation and C4 decarboxylation fluxes to cover the increased demand for lysine formation; thus, the overall increase was a consequence of concerted regulation of C3 carboxylation and C4 decarboxylation fluxes. The relative flux through isocitrate dehydrogenase dropped from 82.7% in the wild type to 59.9% in the lysine-producing mutants. In contrast to the NADPH demand, which increased from 109 to 172% due to the increasing lysine yield, the overall NADPH supply remained constant between 185 and 196%, resulting in a decrease in the apparent NADPH excess through strain optimization. Extrapolated to industrial lysine producers, the NADPH supply might become a limiting factor. The relative contributions of PPP and the tricarboxylic acid cycle to NADPH generation changed markedly, indicating that C. glutamicum is able to maintain a constant supply of NADPH under completely different flux conditions. Statistical analysis by a Monte Carlo approach revealed high precision for the estimated fluxes, underlining the fact that the observed differences were clearly strain specific. PMID:12450803

Exploring Tradeoffs in Demand-side and Supply-side Management of Urban Water Resources using Agent-based Modeling and Evolutionary Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.

2015-12-01

Urban water supply systems may be managed through supply-side and demand-side strategies, which focus on water source expansion and demand reductions, respectively. Supply-side strategies bear infrastructure and energy costs, while demand-side strategies bear costs of implementation and inconvenience to consumers. To evaluate the performance of demand-side strategies, the participation and water use adaptations of consumers should be simulated. In this study, a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework is developed to simulate consumer agents that change their consumption to affect the withdrawal from the water supply system, which, in turn influences operational policies and long-term resource planning. Agent-based models are encoded to represent consumers and a policy maker agent and are coupled with water resources system simulation models. The CAS framework is coupled with an evolutionary computation-based multi-objective methodology to explore tradeoffs in cost, inconvenience to consumers, and environmental impacts for both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Decisions are identified to specify storage levels in a reservoir that trigger (1) increases in the volume of water pumped through inter-basin transfers from an external reservoir and (2) drought stages, which restrict the volume of water that is allowed for residential outdoor uses. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for Arlington, Texas, water supply system to identify non-dominated strategies for an historic drought decade. Results demonstrate that pumping costs associated with maximizing environmental reliability exceed pumping costs associated with minimizing restrictions on consumer water use.

And Who Will Teach Them? An Investigation of the Logistics PhD Market

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golicic, Susan L.; Bobbitt, L. Michelle; Frankel, Robert; Clinton, Steven R.

2004-01-01

At a time when there is high demand for logistics/supply chain education at the undergraduate and master's levels, there is short supply of logistics PhDs to take faculty positions. In this research, the authors used both primary and secondary research to confirm the gap between supply and demand of logistics/supply-chain scholars. Their study…

Graduates of Higher Education in the Food and Agricultural Sciences: An Analysis of Supply/Demand Relationship. Volume II--Home Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulter, Kyle Jane; Stanton, Marge

Information on the supply of new college graduates seeking home economics-related positions, home economics job openings, and projected levels of employment is presented. Based on a Department of Agriculture manpower assessment project, supply and demand relationships through 1990 were analyzed, and supply data were aggregated by 11 educational…

Plant physiological responses to hydrologically mediated changes in nitrogen supply on a boreal forest floodplain: a mechanism explaining the discrepancy in nitrogen demand and supply

Treesearch

Lina Koyama; Knut Kielland

2011-01-01

A discrepancy between plant demand and soil supply of nitrogen (N) has been observed in early successional stages of riparian vegetation in interior Alaska. We hypothesized that a hydrologically mediated N supply serves as a mechanism to balance this apparent deficiency of plant N supply. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a tracer experiment and measured the...

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

PubMed

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

48 CFR 817.105-1 - Uses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Encouraging effective competition. (3) That, during the contract period: (i) Demand for the supplies or services will continue; (ii) Substantial changes in demand for supplies and services in terms of quantity....C. 114, VA contracting officers may enter into multi-year contracts for supplies and services not to...

Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

Treesearch

Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

1993-01-01

This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

Analysis of recent projections of electric power demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hudson, Jr, D V

1993-08-01

This report reviews the changes and potential changes in the outlook for electric power demand since the publication of Review and Analysis of Electricity Supply Market Projections (B. Swezey, SERI/MR-360-3322, National Renewable Energy Laboratory). Forecasts of the following organizations were reviewed: DOE/Energy Information Administration, DOE/Policy Office, DRI/McGraw-Hill, North American Electric Reliability Council, and Gas Research Institute. Supply uncertainty was briefly reviewed to place the uncertainties of the demand outlook in perspective. Also discussed were opportunities for modular technologies, such as renewable energy technologies, to fill a potential gap in energy demand and supply.

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallaba, Florian; Olin, Stefan; Engström, Kerstin; Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Boke-Olén, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardö, Jonas; Seaquist, Jonathan W.

2017-12-01

In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

2018-02-01

We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

Energy and remote sensing applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summers, R. A.; Smith, W. L.; Short, N. M.

1978-01-01

The nature of the U.S. energy problem is examined. Based upon the best available estimates, it appears that demand for OPEC oil will exceed OPEC productive capacity in the early to mid-eighties. The upward pressure on world oil prices resulting from this supply/demand gap could have serious international consequences, both financial and in terms of foreign policy implementation. National Energy Plan objectives in response to this situation are discussed. Major strategies for achieving these objectives include a conversion of industry and utilities from oil and gas to coal and other abundant fuels. Remote sensing from aircraft and spacecraft could make significant contributions to the solution of energy problems in a number of ways, related to exploration of energy-related resources, the efficiency and safety of exploitation procedures, power plant siting, environmental monitoring and assessment, and the transportation infrastructure.

Integrating market processes into utility resource planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kahn, E.P.

1992-11-01

Integrated resource planning has resulted in an abundance of alternatives for meeting existing and new demand for electricity services: (1) utility demand-side management (DSM) programs, (2) DSM bidding, (3) competitive bidding for private power supplies, (4) utility re-powering, and (5) new utility construction. Each alternative relies on a different degree of planning for implementation and, therefore, each alternative relies on markets to a greater or lesser degree. This paper shows how the interaction of planning processes and market forces results in resource allocations among the alternatives. The discussion focuses on three phenomena that are driving forces behind the unanticipated consequences'more » of contemporary integrated resource planning efforts. These forces are: (1) large-scale DSM efforts, (2) customer bypass, and (3) large-scale independent power projects. 22 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Developing a new stochastic competitive model regarding inventory and price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Reza; Bozorgi-Amiri, Ali; Seyedhoseini, S. M.

2015-09-01

Within the competition in today's business environment, the design of supply chains becomes more complex than before. This paper deals with the retailer's location problem when customers choose their vendors, and inventory costs have been considered for retailers. In a competitive location problem, price and location of facilities affect demands of customers; consequently, simultaneous optimization of the location and inventory system is needed. To prepare a realistic model, demand and lead time have been assumed as stochastic parameters, and queuing theory has been used to develop a comprehensive mathematical model. Due to complexity of the problem, a branch and bound algorithm has been developed, and its performance has been validated in several numerical examples, which indicated effectiveness of the algorithm. Also, a real case has been prepared to demonstrate performance of the model for real world.

An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

2009-12-01

A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions incorporating crop distribution, evapotranspiration rates, irrigation efficiencies, and crop prices are used to develop water demand-price functions for agricultural water users. Demand functions for municipal and industrial water users are also developed. Recent applications of the integrated model have focused on the hydrologic and economic impacts of demand management alternatives, including large-scale canal lining conservation measures, and market-based water trading between canal diverters and groundwater pumpers. A supply management alternative being investigated involves revising reservoir rule curves to compensate for climate change impacts on timing of reservoir filling.

42 CFR 84.152 - Breathing tube test; minimum requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...: (i) Be employed on Type C supplied-air respirators of the demand and pressure-demand class; and (ii... SAFETY AND HEALTH RESEARCH AND RELATED ACTIVITIES APPROVAL OF RESPIRATORY PROTECTIVE DEVICES Supplied-Air Respirators § 84.152 Breathing tube test; minimum requirements. (a)(1) Type A and Type B supplied-air...

Summary Report. Indiana College-Level Manpower Study Report Number 8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenberg, Robert M.

Selected findings of seven previously published reports of the College-Level Manpower Study are summarized. Factors involving both manpower supply and demand were investigated and educational and occupational areas in which major supply/demand imbalances exist were determined. The primary goal was to investigate the manpower supply/demand…

Robust design of (s, S) inventory policy parameters in supply chains with demand and lead time uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi Movahed, Kamran; Zhang, Zhi-Hai

2015-09-01

Demand and lead time uncertainties have significant effects on supply chain behaviour. In this paper, we present a single-product three-level multi-period supply chain with uncertain demands and lead times by using robust techniques to study the managerial insights of the supply chain inventory system under uncertainty. We formulate this problem as a robust mixed-integer linear program with minimised expected cost and total cost variation to determine the optimal (s, S) values of the inventory parameters. Several numerical studies are performed to investigate the supply chain behaviour. Useful guidelines for the design of a robust supply chain are also provided. Results show that the order variance and the expected cost in a supply chain significantly increase when the manufacturer's review period is an integer ratio of the distributor's and the retailer's review periods.

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

PubMed

Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core

PubMed Central

Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201

Generating capacity in US electric utilities: How is it used? How much is needed over the decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keelin, T. W.; Oatman, E. N.; Gent, M. R.

1982-10-01

This report addresses: how US generating capacity is used to supply today's consumers with electricity; whether new capacity planned over the next decade is enough to provide a secure supply of electricity; how delays and cancellations of planned capacity would result in higher electricity costs and threaten the security of electricity supply; and how today's decisions determine electricity supply for the next decade and beyond. It is concluded that there is not an electricity supply crisis currently, but there is a planning crisis. This conclusion is based on the following: existing capacity supplies current needs, but provides little room for economic growth; new capacity is planned to provide a secure supply of electricity for the demand projected by utilities; if demand is lower, planned capacity will reduce costs and, if demand is higher, planned capacity will not be adequate; planned capacity may not be realized.

Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States: A Multi-Model Comparison

EPA Science Inventory

This paper compares the climate change impacts on U.S. electricity demand and supply from three models: the Integrated Planning Model (IPM), the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, and GCAM. Rising temperatures cause an appreciable net increase in electricity demand....

Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Graeme

2010-01-01

The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

Markets, Government Policy, and China’s Timber Supply

Treesearch

Han Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

China’s domestic demand and exports of wood products are rising rapidly compared to domestic supply. The determinants of timber supply in China were investigated with panel data from 25 provinces from 1999 to 2009. The results indicated that China’s timber supply had responded to both market forces, reflected by timber prices largely determined by world demand and...

42 CFR 84.163 - Man test for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Man test for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand classes; test requirements. 84.163 Section 84.163 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH RESEARCH AND RELATED ACTIVITIES APPROVAL OF...

Definitions and Basic Concepts of Supply and Demand Analysis Used to Determine Market Equilibrium. Principles of Economics II (Microeconomics), Lesson Plan No. 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiu-Irion, Vicky

Developed as part of a 37.5-hour microeconomics course, this lesson plan focuses on the concepts of supply and demand analysis used to determine market equilibrium. The objectives of the 50-minute lesson are to enable the student to: (1) explain how a demand schedule is derived from raw data; (2) graph a demand curve from the demand schedule; (3)…

The design of optimal electric power demand management contracts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahrioglu, Murat

1999-11-01

Our society derives a quantifiable benefit from electric power. In particular, forced outages or blackouts have enormous consequences on society, one of which is loss of economic surplus. Electric utilities try to provide reliable supply of electric power to their customers. Maximum customer benefit derives from minimum cost and sufficient supply availability. Customers willing to share in "availability risk" can derive further benefit by participating in controlled outage programs. Specifically, whenever utilities foresee dangerous loading patterns, there is a need for a rapid reduction in demand either system-wide or at specific locations. The utility needs to get relief in order to solve its problems quickly and efficiently. This relief can come from customers who agree to curtail their loads upon request in exchange for an incentive fee. This thesis shows how utilities can get efficient load relief while maximizing their economic benefit. This work also shows how estimated customer cost functions can be calibrated, using existing utility data, to help in designing efficient demand management contracts. In order to design such contracts, optimal mechanism design is adopted from "Game Theory" and applied to the interaction between a utility and its customers. The idea behind mechanism design is to design an incentive structure that encourages customers to sign up for the right contract and reveal their true value of power. If a utility has demand management contracts with customers at critical locations, most operational problems can be solved efficiently. This thesis illustrates how locational attributes of customers incorporated into demand management contract design can have a significant impact in solving system problems. This kind of demand management contracts can also be used by an Independent System Operator (ISO). During times of congestion a loss of economic surplus occurs. When the market is too slow or cannot help relieve congestion, demand management can help solve the problem. Another tool the ISO requires for security purposes is reserves. Even though demand management contracts may not be a good substitute for spinning reserves, they are adequate to augment or replace supplemental and backup reserves.

Modeling of shallot supply decisions: the case of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabawati, N. F.; Pujawan, I. N.; Widodo, E.

2018-04-01

To optimize supply chain role, the players of supply chain need to integrate its function. One of the general problems in supply chain was the unbalanced quantity of sales and quantity of supply. This paper focused on modelling a simple method to manage the gap between the demand and the supply. The gap might cause an overstock or a loss. This paper propose a buffer quantity in order to handle the gap by using import decision. The case study was about shallot supply - demand in Indonesia. In this study we model the supply decisions of shallot in Indonesia. While the demand was quite stable over time, the supply was heavily affected by the yield from the farms. The shortage could result in the government importing shallot from other countries. Hence, the government also needed to have a proper buffering mechanism in order to ensure the supply was sufficient and the price was quite stable. The initial model of this research was built by stochastic parameters and the extended model to gain pricing mechanism was built by Shapley value principal with modification. The primary variables were supply quantity, demand quantity, buffer and purchased quantity (stock needed), actual consumption, and price for three players. The validation proved that the result of price at each player presented a significant difference. Therefore, the model could be applied to decide the stock quantity needed and to keep the price stable at each player especially at the end player which would influence the market price.

Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act [Public Law 94-142], 1989. Eleventh Annual Report to Congress. Information on the Supply and Demand for Personnel: Excerpts. Reporting Data on the 1986-87 School Year. Information on Personnel Supply and Demand.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Clearinghouse for Professions in Special Education, Reston, VA.

This paper concerns the supply and demand for special education personnel for the 1986-87 school year. Obtaining valid, reliable, and comparable data on all the elements that generated personnel need was not possible. Single indicators were most commonly used to obtain data for planning by states, school districts, universities, and the Federal…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryu, Jun Hyung; Lee, Soo bin; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

The energy system of process industry are faced with a new unprecedented challenge. Renewable energies should be incorporated but single of them cannot meet its energy demand of high degree and a large quantity. This paper investigates a simulation framework to compute the capacity of multiple energy sources including solar, wind power, diesel and batteries. The framework involves actual renewable energy supply and demand profile generation and supply demand matching. Eight configurations of different supply options are evaluated to illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework with some remarks.

The Experience and Impact of Contraceptive Stockouts Among Women, Providers and Policymakers in Two Districts of Uganda.

PubMed

Grindlay, Kate; Turyakira, Eleanor; Kyamwanga, Imelda T; Nickerson, Adrianne; Blanchard, Kelly

2016-09-01

Little is known about the impact of contraceptive stockouts on women and health care providers, or how policymakers perceive and handle such stockouts. In May-July 2015, a qualitative study on experiences of contraceptive stockouts was conducted in two districts of Uganda. It comprised three data collection components: eight focus groups with 50 women, 24 individual in-depth interviews with family planning service providers and facility managers, and 11 in-depth interviews with district-level policymakers and decision makers. Data analysis followed the content analysis approach. Contraceptive stockouts were common, particularly for long-term methods and oral contraceptives. For women, the consequences included stress, increased costs, domestic conflict, and unwanted or unplanned pregnancies. Providers reported emotional distress, blame from clients, deterioration of skills and lower demand for their services as a result of stockouts; they also felt unable to address stockouts under current supply systems. Despite the widespread prevalence and adverse impact of stockouts, policymakers reported being unaware of the scope of the problem. The findings suggest there is a critical need to raise awareness of the issue, reduce stockouts and mitigate their negative consequences. Efforts to eliminate stockouts should include addressing supply chain issues. Raising community awareness and engaging with men on family planning may be ways to deal with the consequences of stockouts.

Global sustainable timber supply and demand

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince

2010-01-01

Industrial timber use has provided timber revenue that has helped make timber supply and demand more sustainable in the leading timber producing regions of the world. Sustainable development implies not consuming more resources today than we can replace tomorrow, but sustainable forest management implies more than merely a non-declining supply of timber. Forests as a...

76 FR 71070 - Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for the Integrated Water Resource Management...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

... basin water supplies. Initial efforts in the mid-1980s (Phase 1) focused on improving fish passage by... initiated a separate evaluation of the Yakima basin's water supply problems, including consideration of... wildlife habitat, dry-year irrigation demands, and municipal water supply demands. Specific needs that the...

24 CFR 248.141 - Criteria for approval of a plan of action involving prepayment and voluntary termination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... inventory, residential construction activity, and the current and anticipated supply/demand conditions... and anticipated supply/demand conditions in both the overall rental market and the assisted housing... involuntary displacement; and (2) The supply of vacant, comparable housing is sufficient to ensure that such...

An integrated supply chain model for new products with imprecise production and supply under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna

2014-05-01

In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.

Estimating the supply and demand for commercial heavy truck parking on interstate highways : a case study of I-81 in Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

The increasing number of trucks traveling on Virginia highways has led to a growing demand for public rest areas and private truck stops. This study developed a methodology to determine the supply and demand for commercial heavy truck parking using I...

The Supply and Demand of Teachers and Teaching.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zerfoss, Evelyn; Shapiro, Leo J.

There is a general oversupply of teachers. Attempts to regulate teacher supply and demand are flawed by assumptions that teachers are a limited consumer item and that the school system will persist in its present form. The financial crises of schools, the demand of accountability, and the challenge to the principle of compulsory education indicate…

42 CFR 84.157 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. 84.157 Section 84.157 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH... test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. (a) The static... the facepiece shall not fall below atmospheric at inhalation airflows less than 115 liters (4 cubic...

42 CFR 84.157 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. 84.157 Section 84.157 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH... test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. (a) The static... the facepiece shall not fall below atmospheric at inhalation airflows less than 115 liters (4 cubic...

Tracing regulatory routes in metabolism using generalised supply-demand analysis.

PubMed

Christensen, Carl D; Hofmeyr, Jan-Hendrik S; Rohwer, Johann M

2015-12-03

Generalised supply-demand analysis is a conceptual framework that views metabolism as a molecular economy. Metabolic pathways are partitioned into so-called supply and demand blocks that produce and consume a particular intermediate metabolite. By studying the response of these reaction blocks to perturbations in the concentration of the linking metabolite, different regulatory routes of interaction between the metabolite and its supply and demand blocks can be identified and their contribution quantified. These responses are mediated not only through direct substrate/product interactions, but also through allosteric effects. Here we subject previously published kinetic models of pyruvate metabolism in Lactococcus lactis and aspartate-derived amino acid synthesis in Arabidopsis thaliana to generalised supply-demand analysis. Multiple routes of regulation are brought about by different mechanisms in each model, leading to behavioural and regulatory patterns that are generally difficult to predict from simple inspection of the reaction networks depicting the models. In the pyruvate model the moiety-conserved cycles of ATP/ADP and NADH/NAD(+) allow otherwise independent metabolic branches to communicate. This causes the flux of one ATP-producing reaction block to increase in response to an increasing ATP/ADP ratio, while an NADH-consuming block flux decreases in response to an increasing NADH/NAD(+) ratio for certain ratio value ranges. In the aspartate model, aspartate semialdehyde can inhibit its supply block directly or by increasing the concentration of two amino acids (Lys and Thr) that occur as intermediates in demand blocks and act as allosteric inhibitors of isoenzymes in the supply block. These different routes of interaction from aspartate semialdehyde are each seen to contribute differently to the regulation of the aspartate semialdehyde supply block. Indirect routes of regulation between a metabolic intermediate and a reaction block that either produces or consumes this intermediate can play a much larger regulatory role than routes mediated through direct interactions. These indirect routes of regulation can also result in counter-intuitive metabolic behaviour. Performing generalised supply-demand analysis on two previously published models demonstrated the utility of this method as an entry point in the analysis of metabolic behaviour and the potential for obtaining novel results from previously analysed models by using new approaches.

Supply-demand 3D dynamic model in water resources evaluation: taking Lebanon as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Hong; Hou, Zhimin

2017-05-01

In this paper, supply-demand 3D dynamic model is adopted to create a measurement of a region’s capacity to provide available water to meet the needs of its population. First of all, we draw a diagram between supply and demand. Then taking the main dynamic factors into account, we establish an index to evaluate the balance of supply and demand. The three dimension vector reflects the scarcity of industrial, agricultural and residential water. Lebanon is chosen as the object of case study, and we do quantitative analysis of its current situation. After data collecting and processing, we calculate the 3D vector in 2012, which reveals that agriculture is susceptible to water scarcity. Water resources of Lebanon are “physical rich” but “economic scarcity” according to the correlation chart and other statistical analysis.

International Oil Supplies and Demands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

A new market risk model for cogeneration project financing---combined heat and power development without a power purchase agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, Timothy A.

Federal legislative changes in 2006 no longer entitle cogeneration project financings by law to receive the benefit of a power purchase agreement underwritten by an investment-grade investor-owned utility. Consequently, this research explored the need for a new market-risk model for future cogeneration and combined heat and power (CHP) project financing. CHP project investment represents a potentially enormous energy efficiency benefit through its application by reducing fossil fuel use up to 55% when compared to traditional energy generation, and concurrently eliminates constituent air emissions up to 50%, including global warming gases. As a supplemental approach to a comprehensive technical analysis, a quantitative multivariate modeling was also used to test the statistical validity and reliability of host facility energy demand and CHP supply ratios in predicting the economic performance of CHP project financing. The resulting analytical models, although not statistically reliable at this time, suggest a radically simplified CHP design method for future profitable CHP investments using four easily attainable energy ratios. This design method shows that financially successful CHP adoption occurs when the average system heat-to-power-ratio supply is less than or equal to the average host-convertible-energy-ratio, and when the average nominally-rated capacity is less than average host facility-load-factor demands. New CHP investments can play a role in solving the world-wide problem of accommodating growing energy demand while preserving our precious and irreplaceable air quality for future generations.

Ethical and legal issues in the control of drug abuse and drug trafficking: the Nigerian case.

PubMed

Obot, I S

1992-08-01

This paper presents a general review of drug law and policy in Nigeria beginning with the international attempts to control the traffic in liquor during the pre-colonial and colonial periods. The paper assesses the impact of penal policy on trafficking and use of illicit drugs at different stages in the transformation of Nigeria from a colonial outpost to an independent nation. One persistent feature of drug control mechanisms in Nigeria has been the emphasis on the reduction of supply with the imposition of harsh though inconsistent punishment including, at one time, the death penalty for trafficking. Consequently, initiatives aimed at demand reduction through education, treatment and rehabilitation have been neglected. One reason for this is that, to a great extent, drug control strategy in modern Nigeria has been a response to international demands; another is that they were formulated under military regimes with an overriding concern for law and order. Other features of the Nigerian drug problem are presented and the need for the reform of current laws is stressed. It is argued that an enduring solution lies in the implementation of a comprehensive but clearly defined policy aimed both at the control of supply and reduction of demand. While the state has the duty and the right to protect its citizens from drug-related harm, it is an ethical imperative to institute control measures which do no harm to the citizens they are meant to protect.

Comparative life cycle assessment of biogas plant configurations for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation.

PubMed

Hahn, Henning; Hartmann, Kilian; Bühle, Lutz; Wachendorf, Michael

2015-03-01

The environmental performance of biogas plant configurations for a demand - oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation is comparatively assessed in this study. Those configurations indicate an increased energy demand to operate the operational enhancements compared to conventional biogas plants supplying biogas for baseload power generation. However, findings show that in contrast to an alternative supply of power generators with natural gas, biogas supplied on demand by adapted biogas plant configurations saves greenhouse gas emissions by 54-65 g CO(2-eq) MJ(-1) and primary energy by about 1.17 MJ MJ(-1). In this regard, configurations with flexible biogas production profit from reduced biogas storage requirements and achieve higher savings compared to configurations with continuous biogas production. Using thicker biogas storage sheeting material reduces the methane permeability of up to 6m(3) d(-1) which equals a reduction of 8% of the configuration's total methane emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy Requirements by the Water Sector in the Southwestern US: Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Yates, D. N.; Meldrum, J.

2014-12-01

Climate, energy, and water are fundamentally linked such that shifts in one sector have cascading impacts on the others. Consideration of the integrated system is necessary to fully understand the individual risk profile of each sector. In defining vulnerabilities and potential adaptations, the policy and regulatory environment must be considered alongside the biological and physical systems. Take, for example, the Southwestern U.S., a naturally arid system, where water availability is declining as a consequence of climate change and population growth. Adaptations by the water sector to convey, store, and develop new water sources (e.g. desalination, groundwater pumping, water-reuse) are strategies designed to enhance sustainability of the sector. But, the energy requirements embedded in these management techniques pose challenges to electric utilities. West wide, approximately 20% of total electricity generation goes toward supplying and heating water. If future investments made by the water sector to deal with changing supply and demand regimes continue to follow current trends, the dependence of water on energy availability will grow, meaning that the water supply will be increasingly reliant on the electricity system. Here, we use the example of long-term aridity and the recent drought in the Western US to illustrate the tradeoffs and challenges inherent at the nexus between energy and water. We present long-term trends in the energy intensity of water supplies in the Southwestern US, with a specific focus on groundwater systems. Projected energy requirements for proposed and future conveyance systems are discussed. The potential impacts of reduced flows on the Colorado River on the energy demands for groundwater pumping in the Lower Colorado River Basin are highlighted.

Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project.

PubMed

Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Lo Porto, Antonio; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

2015-08-01

There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60% by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

A Supply and Demand Management Perspective on the Accelerated Global Introductions of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in a Constrained Supply Market

PubMed Central

Ottosen, Ann; Rubin, Jennifer; Blanc, Diana Chang; Zipursky, Simona; Wootton, Emily

2017-01-01

Abstract A total of 105 countries have introduced IPV as of September 2016 of which 85 have procured the vaccine through UNICEF. The Global Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 called for the rapid introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine immunization schedules in 126 all OPV-using countries by the end of 2015. At the time of initiating the procurement process, demand was estimated based on global modeling rather than individual country indications. In its capacity as procurement agency for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, UNICEF set out to secure access to IPV supply for around 100 countries. Based on offers received, sufficient supply was awarded to two manufacturers to meet projected routine requirements. However, due to technical issues scaling up vaccine production and an unforecasted demand for IPV use in campaigns to interrupt wild polio virus and to control type 2 vaccine derived polio virus outbreaks, IPV supplies are severely constrained. Activities to stretch supplies and to suppress demand have been ongoing since 2014, including delaying IPV introduction in countries where risks of type 2 reintroduction are lower, implementing the multi-dose vial policy, and encouraging the use of fractional dose delivered intradermally. Despite these efforts, there is still insufficient IPV supply to meet demand. The impact of the supply situation on IPV introduction timelines in countries are the focus of this article, and based on lessons learned with the IPV introductions, it is recommended for future health programs with accelerated scale up of programs, to take a cautious approach on supply commitments, putting in place clear allocation criteria in case of shortages or delays and establishing a communication strategy vis a vis beneficiaries. PMID:28838159

Glucose kinetics and pregnancy outcome in Indian women with low and normal body mass indices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fetal energy demands are met from the oxidation of maternally supplied glucose and amino acids. During the fasted state, the glucose supply is thought to be met by gluconeogenesis. Underweight women with low body mass index (BMI) might be unable to adequately supply amino acids to satisfy the demand...

Monetary Policy Rules, Supply Shocks, and the Price-Level Elasticity of Aggregate Demand: A Graphical Examination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyer, Ben L.; Maggs, Gary E.

1995-01-01

Utilizes two-dimensional price and output graphs to demonstrate the way that the price-level elasticity of aggregate demand affects alternative monetary policy rules designed to cope with random aggregate supply shocks. Includes graphs illustrating price-level, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), nominal GDP, and nominal money supply targeting.…

A gap analysis for future supply of and demand for psychiatrists in Austria.

PubMed

Riedel, Monika; Röehrling, Gerald; Czypionka, Thomas; Kasper, Siegfried

2014-03-01

In the recent past, a rising caseload demonstrates increasing demand for psychiatrists, and ageing of the current mental health workforce will soon result in growing numbers of retirees. Under these conditions there is some concern whether we soon will face widening gaps in supply. This study calculates projections of future use and supply of psychiatrists' services in Austria until 2030. Resulting gaps are calculated for different scenarios. We mostly use administrative data from several public authorities. To estimate the demand for services, we start from utilization data rather than medical need for services, as we do not have sufficient epidemiological information for Austria. We define several scenarios for the future development of use, all calculated separately for hospital and non-hospital services. Future supply of psychiatric services is projected by applying activity levels to projected numbers of physicians, which are calculated using a stock and flow model. Outflows are modeled using assumptions derived from past activity patterns and current legislation on retirement. To model inflows, we need to gauge the impact of recent developments: Entrance barriers into medical education were introduced, Austria experienced a surge of medical students coming from Germany, and medical schools implemented quotas for different nationalities. Scenarios take several factors into account, like the shifting sex composition of the medical workforce, re-migration of foreign students, and the impact of entrance barriers on enrolment and drop-out rates. Depending on scenario assumptions, demand for psychiatrists will increase by 8% to 52%. But in all supply scenarios, supply will decline from 2016 onwards, thus widening gaps between supply and demand. Even in the most optimistic scenario, supply will have fallen below current levels by 2030. Compared to current rates of service use, a gap between supply and demand will start to widen soon. In the most optimistic combination of scenarios, demand will exceed supply from 2028 onwards, and the projected gap will amount to about 5% of projected demand for services in 2030. Gaps could be miscalculated due to lack of more detailed data, such as retirement patterns of psychiatrists. Shifting responsibilities between psychiatrists and other (mental) health workers as well as changes in psychiatrists' "productivity", e.g. due to more effective medications, were not modeled but would affect results. It will be necessary to improve working and training conditions in order to avoid emigration and to attract a sufficient number of young entrants into the profession.

Four measures of transportation's economic importance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

As a commodity, transportation has a supply side and a demand side. Unlike many other commodities, however, transportation's supply and demand overlap extensively. A significant portion of transportation : is provided by consumers for their own use. ...

Counselor Supply, Demand, and Employment Experience. A Regional Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gotsch, Alexandra

Although the number of Master's level counselor training programs has increased dramatically over the last 20 years, reduction in state and federal funding has reduced the demand for counselors. To examine the supply and demand for counselors in four San Francisco Bay area counties, a regional survey of degrees awarded between 1972 and 1981 in…

The Supply of and Demand for Graduates of Post-Secondary School Institutions in the Next Decade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodman, F. V. S.

1969-01-01

Joint responsibility of education authorities and the Department of Manpower and Immigration is to accelerate research and to develop programs which will ease the process of adjustment to changing conditions in manpower demand. The inevitable prerequisite of closer matching of demand for and supply of qualified manpower is increased specialization…

Data Science in Supply Chain Management: Data-Related Influences on Demand Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jin, Yao

2013-01-01

Data-driven decisions have become an important aspect of supply chain management. Demand planners are tasked with analyzing volumes of data that are being collected at a torrential pace from myriad sources in order to translate them into actionable business intelligence. In particular, demand volatilities and planning are vital for effective and…

Demand, Supply and Results for Secondary Career and Technical Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Washington State Workforce Training and Education Coordinating Board, Olympia.

The benefits of offering high school students career and technical education (CTE) in addition to training in basic academic skills and the cost-effectiveness of CTE were examined by reviewing available data on demand, supply, and results for CTE. The analysis confirmed that the market and demand for workers with only a high school education still…

How nutrition policy affects food and agricultural policy.

PubMed

Johnson, S R

1994-09-01

The impact of the improved understanding of nutrition and the importance of the diet in nutrition status has had subtle but far-reaching consequences for food and agricultural policy. Many of the changes in the food supply are in response to increased consciousness of diet, nutrition and health status. The simple connection between nutrition policy and food and agricultural policy follows from the sovereignty of the consumer. Nutrition policy influences consumers' attitudes and choices. These impact the behavior of agents in the food and production system. And, if properly designed, food and agricultural policies can accelerate the process of adapting the production and distribution systems for agriculture and food to better meet the demands of the more informed consumer. Policies that reflect the behavior of consumers and supply better information to the agents in the food and agricultural system will be the most effective.

Vaccine supply, demand, and policy: a primer.

PubMed

Muzumdar, Jagannath M; Cline, Richard R

2009-01-01

To provide an overview of supply and demand issues in the vaccine industry and the policy options that have been implemented to resolve these issues. Medline, Policy File, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts were searched to locate academic journal articles. Other sources reviewed included texts on the topics of vaccine history and policy, government agency reports, and reports from independent think tanks. Keywords included vaccines, immunizations, supply, demand, and policy. Search criteria were limited to English language and human studies. Articles pertaining to vaccine demand, supply, and public policy were selected and reviewed for inclusion. By the authors. Vaccines are biologic medications, therefore making their development and production more difficult and costly compared with "small-molecule" drugs. Research and development costs for vaccines can exceed $800 million, and development may require 10 years or more. Strict manufacturing regulations and facility upgrades add to these costs. Policy options to increase and stabilize the supply of vaccines include those aimed at increasing supply, such as government subsidies for basic vaccine research, liability protection for manufacturers, and fast-track approval for new vaccines. Options to increase vaccine demand include advance purchase commitments, government stockpiles, and government financing for select populations. High development costs and multiple barriers to entry have led to a decline in the number of vaccine manufacturers. Although a number of vaccine policies have met with mixed success in increasing the supply of and demand for vaccines, a variety of concerns remain, including developing vaccines for complex pathogens and increasing immunization rates with available vaccines. New policy innovations such as advance market commitments and Medicare Part D vaccine coverage have been implemented and may aid in resolving some of the problems in the vaccine industry.

Coordinating a supply chain with a loss-averse retailer and effort dependent demand.

PubMed

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong

2014-01-01

This study investigates the channel coordination issue of a supply chain with a risk-neutral manufacturer and a loss-averse retailer facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to sales effort. Under the loss-averse newsvendor setting, a distribution-free gain/loss-sharing-and-buyback (GLB) contract has been shown to be able to coordinate the supply chain. However, we find that a GLB contract remains ineffective in managing the supply chain when retailer sales efforts influence the demand. To effectively coordinate the channel, we propose to combine a GLB contract with sales rebate and penalty (SRP) contract. In addition, we discover a special class of gain/loss contracts that can coordinate the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate the expected supply chain profit between the manufacturer and the retailer. We then analyze the effect of loss aversion on the retailer's decision-making behavior and supply chain performance. Finally, we perform a numerical study to illustrate the findings and gain additional insights.

Coordinating a Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Retailer and Effort Dependent Demand

PubMed Central

Li, Liying

2014-01-01

This study investigates the channel coordination issue of a supply chain with a risk-neutral manufacturer and a loss-averse retailer facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to sales effort. Under the loss-averse newsvendor setting, a distribution-free gain/loss-sharing-and-buyback (GLB) contract has been shown to be able to coordinate the supply chain. However, we find that a GLB contract remains ineffective in managing the supply chain when retailer sales efforts influence the demand. To effectively coordinate the channel, we propose to combine a GLB contract with sales rebate and penalty (SRP) contract. In addition, we discover a special class of gain/loss contracts that can coordinate the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate the expected supply chain profit between the manufacturer and the retailer. We then analyze the effect of loss aversion on the retailer's decision-making behavior and supply chain performance. Finally, we perform a numerical study to illustrate the findings and gain additional insights. PMID:25197696

Practice Consolidation: Forces Not of Nature, but of Government, Demographics, Economics, and Technology.

PubMed

Edlow, Richard C

2016-01-01

The demand for healthcare services is increasing more rapidly than the supply of providers, while reimbursement levels ignore the free market law of supply and demand. The regulated healthcare environment in the United States fails to increase prices (i.e., reimbursement rates) as demand outstrips supply. Healthcare practitioners must find alternative methods in order to continue providing excellent patient care while at the same time maintaining an economically viable practice. Practice consolidation with the assistance of private equity healthcare investment is an extremely attractive solution to this imbalance.

Socially Responsible Mining: the Relationship between Mining and Poverty, Human Health and the Environment

PubMed Central

Maier, Raina M.; Díaz-Barriga, Fernando; Field, James A.; Hopkins, James; Klein, Bern; Poulton, Mary M.

2016-01-01

Increasing global demand for metals is straining the ability of the mining industry to physically keep up with demand (physical scarcity). On the other hand, social issues including the environmental and human health consequences of mining as well as the disparity in income distribution from mining revenues are disproportionately felt at the local community level. This has created social rifts, particularly in the developing world, between affected communities and both industry and governments. Such rifts can result in a disruption of the steady supply of metals (situational scarcity). Here we discuss the importance of mining in relationship to poverty, identify steps that have been taken to create a framework for socially responsible mining, and then discuss the need for academia to work in partnership with communities, government, and industry to develop trans-disciplinary research-based step change solutions to the intertwined problems of physical and situational scarcity. PMID:24552962

Decreasing reliance on mineral nitrogen--yet more food.

PubMed

Roy, Rabindra N; Misra, Ram V; Montanez, Adriana

2002-03-01

Higher crop production normally demands higher nutrient application rates and consequently increased mineral nitrogen use. With food demand for 2030 estimated around 2800 mill. tonnes (t) yr-1, the corresponding mineral N consumption figure is 96 mill. t (78 mill. t yr-1 in 1995/1997). Global-level mineral N losses to the environment from mineral fertilizer use are currently 36 mill. t yr-1, worth USD 11,700 mill. and with adverse environmental impacts. However, innovative fertilizer-use efficiency (FUE) technologies enable increased production with a less than a proportionate increase in mineral-N use. Moreover, nitrogen-nutrient supplies can be augmented through improvements in agricultural production systems and in the exploitation of alternative sources such as biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). By 2030, with adequate policy, technology transfer, research and investment support, the on-farm adoption of BNF and FUE technologies could generate savings of 10 mill. t yr-1 of mineral N, worth USD 3300 mill.

Mental health in the Dutch population and in general practice: 1987–2001

PubMed Central

Verhaak, Peter FM; Hoeymans, Nancy; Garssen, Anna A; Westert, Gert P

2005-01-01

Background In the last 15 years, both the demand for and supply of specialised mental health care increased considerably in the Netherlands. Increased demand may reflect a change in psychological morbidity, but may also be a consequence of increased supply. Specialised health care in the Netherlands is accessible only through referral by a GP, and so it is important to consider the role of primary care in the diagnosis of mental health problems. Aim The aim of this study is to achieve a better understanding of the development of mental health status in the Dutch population and the consequent help-seeking behaviour in primary care. Method Using two comparable morbidity studies carried out in the Dutch population and in primary care, we compared data from 1987 and 2001 to assess the following: possible differences in mental health between 1987 and 2001; possible differences in prevalence of mental disorder as diagnosed by GPs in 1987 and 2001; possible differences in the sociodemographic determinants of mental health and mental disorder in primary care between 1987 and 2001. Results Our results show an increase in mental and social problems in the population between 1987 and 2001. However, GPs diagnosed fewer patients as having a mental disorder in 2001 than they did in 1987. The risk of mental disorders or social problems in several sociodemographic groups remained largely the same, as did the chance of receiving a psychological or social diagnosis. Conclusion We conclude that, while mental disorder in the population is increasing, the role of primary care has changed. Although GPs diagnose a lower percentage of mental problems as such, they refer an increasingly larger proportion of these to secondary care. PMID:16212852

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine: A global assessment of demand and supply balance.

PubMed

Cernuschi, Tania; Malvolti, Stefano; Nickels, Emily; Friede, Martin

2018-01-25

Over the past decade, several countries across all regions, income groups and procurement methods have been unable to secure sufficient BCG vaccine supply. While the frequency of stock-outs has remained rather stable, duration increased in 2014-2015 due to manufacturing issues and attracted the attention of national, regional and global immunization stakeholders. This prompted an in-depth analysis of supply and demand dynamics aiming to characterize supply risks. This analysis is unique as it provides a global picture, where previous analyses have focused on a portion of the market procuring through UN entities. Through literature review, supplier interviews, appraisal of shortages, stock-outs and historical procurement data, and through demand forecasting, this analysis shows an important increase in global capacity in 2017: supply is sufficient to meet forecasted BCG vaccine demand and possibly buffer market shocks. Nevertheless, risks remain mainly due to supply concentration and limited investment in production process improvements, as well as inflexibility in demand. Identification of these market risks will allow implementation of risk-mitigating interventions in three areas: (1) enhancing information sharing between major global health actors, countries and suppliers, (2) identifying interests and incentives to expand product registration and investment in the BCG manufacturing process, and (3) working with countries for tighter vaccine management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Aortic stiffness and the balance between cardiac oxygen supply and demand: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Guelen, Ilja; Mattace-Raso, Francesco Us; van Popele, Nicole M; Westerhof, Berend E; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline Cm; Bos, Willem Jan W

2008-06-01

Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether aortic stiffness, estimated as aortic pulse wave velocity, is associated with decreased perfusion pressure estimated as the cardiac oxygen supply potential. Aortic stiffness and aortic pressure waves, reconstructed from finger blood pressure waves, were obtained in 2490 older adults within the framework of the Rotterdam Study, a large population-based study. Cardiac oxygen supply and demand were estimated using pulse wave analysis techniques, and related to aortic stiffness by linear regression analyses after adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial pressure and heart rate. Cardiac oxygen demand, estimated as the Systolic Pressure Time Index and the Rate Pressure Product, increased with increasing aortic stiffness [0.27 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: 0.21; 0.34)] and [42.2 mmHg/min (95% confidence interval: 34.1; 50.3)], respectively. Cardiac oxygen supply potential estimated as the Diastolic Pressure Time Index decreased [-0.70 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: -0.86; -0.54)] with aortic stiffening. Accordingly, the supply/demand ratio Diastolic Pressure Time Index/Systolic Pressure Time Index -1.11 (95% confidence interval: -0.14; -0.009) decreased with increasing aortic stiffness. Aortic stiffness is associated with estimates of increased cardiac oxygen demand and a decreased cardiac oxygen supply potential. These results may offer additional explanation for the relation between aortic stiffness and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Local capillary supply in muscle is not determined by local oxidative capacity.

PubMed

Bosutti, Alessandra; Egginton, Stuart; Barnouin, Yoann; Ganse, Bergita; Rittweger, Jörn; Degens, Hans

2015-11-01

It is thought that the prime determinant of global muscle capillary density is the mean oxidative capacity. However, feedback control during maturational growth or adaptive remodelling of local muscle capillarisation is likely to be more complex than simply matching O2 supply and demand in response to integrated tissue function. We tested the hypothesis that the maximal oxygen consumption (MO2,max) supported by a capillary is relatively constant, and independent of the volume of tissue supplied (capillary domain). We demonstrate that local MO2,max assessed by succinate dehydrogenase histochemistry: (1) varied more than 100-fold between individual capillaries and (2) was positively correlated to capillary domain area in both human vastus lateralis (R=0.750, P<0.001) and soleus (R=0.697, P<0.001) muscles. This suggests that, in contrast to common assumptions, capillarisation is not primarily dictated by local oxidative capacity, but rather by factors such as fibre size, or consequences of differences in fibre size such as substrate delivery and metabolite removal. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Simulation modelling of central order processing system under resource sharing strategy in demand-driven garment supply chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, K.; Thomassey, S.; Zeng, X.

2017-10-01

In this paper we proposed a central order processing system under resource sharing strategy for demand-driven garment supply chains to increase supply chain performances. We examined this system by using simulation technology. Simulation results showed that significant improvement in various performance indicators was obtained in new collaborative model with proposed system.

Supply and Demand of Educational Personnel for Wisconsin Public Schools. An Examination of Data Trends, 1997.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauritzen, Paul

This report presents 1997 supply and demand information about Wisconsin Public School educational personnel using Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction (DPI) data. The analysis found a large supply of teachers in most subjects. The largest number of new licenses was in fields that already had surplus educators. The number of teachers prepared…

Institutional and socioeconomic aspects of water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauchenschwandtner, H.; Pachel, M.

2012-04-01

Institutional and socioeconomic aspects of water supply Within the project CC-WaterS the participating researchers of the Vienna University of Economics and B.A. have been responsible for the analysis of the socioeconomic aspects related to water supply and climate change, the assessment of future water demands in the City of Vienna, as well as an estimation of economic consequences of possible water shortages and possible scope for the introduction of new legal guidelines. The institutional and socioeconomic dimensions of drinking water and sanitation systems are being examined by utilisation of different prognostic scenarios in order to assess future costs of water provisioning and future demands of main water users, thus providing an information basis and recommendations for policy and decision makers in the water sector. These dimensions, for example, include EU legislation - especially the Water Framework Directive -, national legislations and strategies targeted at achieving sustainability in water usage, best practices and different forms of regulating water markets, and an analysis of the implications of demographic change. As a basis this task encompasses research of given institutional, social, and legal-political structures in the area of water supply. In this course we provide an analysis of the structural characteristics of water markets, the role of water prices, the increasing perception of water as an economic good as well as implications thereof, the public awareness in regard to climate change and water resources, as well as related legal aspects and involved actors from regional to international level; and show how water resources and the different systems of water provisioning are affected by (ideological) conflicts on various levels. Furthermore, and in order to provide a solid basis for management recommendations related to climate change and water supply, an analytical risk-assessment framework based on the concepts of new institutional economics is being developed, which provides a different analytical perspective for examining the linkages between institutions, economic processes, and societal factors.

Evaluation of measures to meet future supply demand gap in Chennai city, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmanan, E.; Paul, N.

2016-12-01

Availability of water forever has daunted all the major cities of the world and the cities of India are no exception. Even with high annual average rainfall of 1200 mm the Chennai city has an availability of just 108 lpcd of water, which is much lower than 150 lpcd prescribed by the World Health Organisation. The water requirement presently is met mainly from five reservoirs and partly from groundwater pumping which has given rise to seawater intrusion. The objective of this study is to find effective measures for overcoming the chronic demand supply gap and to predict the results of such measures quantitatively by modelling with the Water Evaluation and Planning System(WEAP). The modelling of city's water demand and supply system was carried out using WEAP and calibration was done using PEST. The data required for this study was obtained from various sources as well as by field investigations. There has been a continuous decrease in the actual water supply even with high availability as predicted by the model. About 60 percent of the city's supplied water ends in sewage and after treatment is presently supplied to industries, on its reuse it is found to meet completely the city's demand alone. The modelled heavy rainfall scenario demonstrates an increase in the water availability up to 20 percent during the years of heavy rainfall. The rejuvenation of existing water bodies in the outskirts of Chennai will increase the water availability for agriculture by 60 percent and hence more groundwater can be pumped for city's water supply. With addition of a new desalination plant over the existing two, the city's water supply-demand gap can be reduced by about 80%. If all the measures are implemented the water availability will exceed the demand. Thus, the WEAP model was successfully used to suggest means for sustainable water management plans for the Chennai city.

Electricity decision-making: New techniques for calculating statewide economic impacts from new power supply and demand-side management programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegen, Suzanne Isabel Helmholz

This dissertation introduces new techniques for calculating and comparing statewide economic impacts from new coal, natural gas and wind power plants, as well as from demand-side management programs. The impetus for this work was two-fold. First, reviews of current literature and projects revealed that there was no standard way to estimate statewide economic impacts from new supply- and demand-side electricity options. Second, decision-makers who were interviewed stated that they were overwhelmed with data in general, but also lacked enough specific information about economic development impacts to their states from electricity, to make informed choices. This dissertation includes chapters on electricity decision-making and on economic impacts from supply and demand. The supply chapter compares different electricity options in three states which vary in natural resource content: Arizona, Colorado and Michigan. To account for differing capacity factors, resources are compared on a per-megawatt-hour basis. The calculations of economic impacts from new supply include: materials and labor for construction, operations, maintenance, fuel extraction, fuel transport, as well as property tax, financing and landowner revenues. The demand-side chapter compares residential, commercial and industrial programs in Iowa. Impact calculations include: incremental labor and materials for program planning, installation and operations, as well as sales taxes and electricity saved. Results from supply-side calculations in the three states analyzed indicate that adding new wind power can have a greater impact to a state's economy than adding new gas or coal power due to resource location, taxes and infrastructure. Additionally, demand-side management programs have a higher relative percentage of in-state dollar flow than supply-side solutions, though demand-side programs typically involve fewer MWh and dollars than supply-side generation. Methods for this dissertation include researching existing models and data, gathering new data and interviews with industry representatives and policy makers. The new techniques are important for decision-makers, utilities, energy advocates and others who are concerned with economic development and in-state dollar flows from new electricity decisions.

Teacher Supply and Demand in the ACT Schools Authority: Implications of Enrollment Projections 1981-1986. Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burkhardt, Geoffrey

An analysis of policy options concerning teacher supply and demand in the A.C.T. [Australian Capital Territory] Schools Authority from 1981 to 1986 is presented. Projections have indicated declining demand for primary school teachers, fewer promotions in primary schools, and the necessity of relocating teachers to areas of expansion. However,…

The construction of a decision tool to analyse local demand and local supply for GP care using a synthetic estimation model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background This study addresses the growing academic and policy interest in the appropriate provision of local healthcare services to the healthcare needs of local populations to increase health status and decrease healthcare costs. However, for most local areas information on the demand for primary care and supply is missing. The research goal is to examine the construction of a decision tool which enables healthcare planners to analyse local supply and demand in order to arrive at a better match. Methods National sample-based medical record data of general practitioners (GPs) were used to predict the local demand for GP care based on local populations using a synthetic estimation technique. Next, the surplus or deficit in local GP supply were calculated using the national GP registry. Subsequently, a dynamic internet tool was built to present demand, supply and the confrontation between supply and demand regarding GP care for local areas and their surroundings in the Netherlands. Results Regression analysis showed a significant relationship between sociodemographic predictors of postcode areas and GP consultation time (F [14, 269,467] = 2,852.24; P <0.001). The statistical model could estimate GP consultation time for every postcode area with >1,000 inhabitants in the Netherlands covering 97% of the total population. Confronting these estimated demand figures with the actual GP supply resulted in the average GP workload and the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GP too much/too few for local areas to cover the demand for GP care. An estimated shortage of one FTE GP or more was prevalent in about 19% of the postcode areas with >1,000 inhabitants if the surrounding postcode areas were taken into consideration. Underserved areas were mainly found in rural regions. Conclusions The constructed decision tool is freely accessible on the Internet and can be used as a starting point in the discussion on primary care service provision in local communities and it can make a considerable contribution to a primary care system which provides care when and where people need it. PMID:24161015

Demand and supply of doctors and dentists in Bahrain, 1998-2005.

PubMed

Ahmed, A A; Fateha, B; Benjamin, S

2000-01-01

We examined the supply and demand of medical doctors and dentists in Bahrain. Demand for physicians and dentists was based on the objective of having a physician-to-population ratio of 1:650, and a dentist-to-population ratio of 1:5000. Analysis of the current workforce and projected graduates in the period 1998-2005 indicated that the supply of Bahraini medical doctors and dentists until the year 2005 will not be sufficient to meet the projected demand in these categories. By the year 2005, Bahraini doctors and dentists will provide 82.5% and 75.9% of medical and dental demands respectively. The remaining 17.2% of physicians and 24.1% of dentists will have to be recruited from abroad. Thus, the prospect of oversupply of Bahrainis among these categories until the year 2005 is highly unlikely.

Dissolved CO2 Increases Breakthrough Porosity in Natural Porous Materials.

PubMed

Yang, Y; Bruns, S; Stipp, S L S; Sørensen, H O

2017-07-18

When reactive fluids flow through a dissolving porous medium, conductive channels form, leading to fluid breakthrough. This phenomenon is caused by the reactive infiltration instability and is important in geologic carbon storage where the dissolution of CO 2 in flowing water increases fluid acidity. Using numerical simulations with high resolution digital models of North Sea chalk, we show that the breakthrough porosity is an important indicator of dissolution pattern. Dissolution patterns reflect the balance between the demand and supply of cumulative surface. The demand is determined by the reactive fluid composition while the supply relies on the flow field and the rock's microstructure. We tested three model scenarios and found that aqueous CO 2 dissolves porous media homogeneously, leading to large breakthrough porosity. In contrast, solutions without CO 2 develop elongated convective channels known as wormholes, with low breakthrough porosity. These different patterns are explained by the different apparent solubility of calcite in free drift systems. Our results indicate that CO 2 increases the reactive subvolume of porous media and reduces the amount of solid residual before reactive fluid can be fully channelized. Consequently, dissolved CO 2 may enhance contaminant mobilization near injection wellbores, undermine the mechanical sustainability of formation rocks and increase the likelihood of buoyance driven leakage through carbonate rich caprocks.

Ambulatory Healthcare Utilization in the United States: A System Dynamics Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diaz, Rafael; Behr, Joshua G.; Tulpule, Mandar

2011-01-01

Ambulatory health care needs within the United States are served by a wide range of hospitals, clinics, and private practices. The Emergency Department (ED) functions as an important point of supply for ambulatory healthcare services. Growth in our aging populations as well as changes stemming from broader healthcare reform are expected to continue trend in congestion and increasing demand for ED services. While congestion is, in part, a manifestation of unmatched demand, the state of the alignment between the demand for, and supply of, emergency department services affects quality of care and profitability. The central focus of this research is to provide an explanation of the salient factors at play within the dynamic demand-supply tensions within which ambulatory care is provided within an Emergency Department. A System Dynamics (SO) simulation model is used to capture the complexities among the intricate balance and conditional effects at play within the demand-supply emergency department environment. Conceptual clarification of the forces driving the elements within the system , quantifying these elements, and empirically capturing the interaction among these elements provides actionable knowledge for operational and strategic decision-making.

Glucose supply and insulin demand dynamics of antidiabetic agents.

PubMed

Monte, Scott V; Schentag, Jerome J; Adelman, Martin H; Paladino, Joseph A

2010-03-01

For microvascular outcomes, there is compelling historical and contemporary evidence for intensive blood glucose reduction in patients with either type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). There is also strong evidence to support macrovascular benefit with intensive blood glucose reduction in T1DM. Similar evidence remains elusive for T2DM. Because cardiovascular outcome trials utilizing conventional algorithms to attain intensive blood glucose reduction have not demonstrated superiority to less aggressive blood glucose reduction (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes; Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation; and Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial), it should be considered that the means by which the blood glucose is reduced may be as important as the actual blood glucose. By identifying quantitative differences between antidiabetic agents on carbohydrate exposure (CE), hepatic glucose uptake (HGU), hepatic gluconeogenesis (GNG), insulin resistance (IR), peripheral glucose uptake (PGU), and peripheral insulin exposure (PIE), we created a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to characterize the effect of the agents on the glucose supply and insulin demand dynamic. Glucose supply was defined as the cumulative percentage decrease in CE, increase in HGU, decrease in GNG, and decrease in IR, while insulin demand was defined as the cumulative percentage increase in PIE and PGU. With the glucose supply and insulin demand effects of each antidiabetic agent summated, the glucose supply (numerator) was divided by the insulin demand (denominator) to create a value representative of the glucose supply and insulin demand dynamic (SD ratio). Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (1.25), metformin (2.20), and thiazolidinediones (TZDs; 1.25-1.32) demonstrate a greater effect on glucose supply (SD ratio >1), while secretagogues (0.69-0.81), basal insulins (0.77-0.79), and bolus insulins (0.62-0.67) demonstrate a greater effect on insulin demand (SD ratio <1). Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors, metformin, and TZDs demonstrate a greater effect on glucose supply, while secretagogues, basal insulin, and bolus insulin demonstrate a greater effect on insulin demand. Because T2DM cardiovascular outcome trials have not demonstrated macrovascular benefit with more aggressive blood glucose reduction when using conventional algorithms that predominantly focus on insulin demand, it would appear logical to consider a model that incorporates both the extent of blood glucose lowering (hemoglobin A1c) and the means by which the blood glucose was reduced (SD ratio) when considering macrovascular outcomes. (c) 2010 Diabetes Technology Society.

Secondary analysis of merged American Hospital Association data and U.S. Census data: beginning to understand the supply-demand chain in pediatric inpatient care.

PubMed

Lacey, Susan R; Kilgore, Meredith; Yun, Huifeng; Hughes, Ronda; Allison, Jeroan; Cox, Karen S

2008-06-01

Much attention has been focused on how the nursing shortage will impact the growing number of aging Americans. This study was conducted as a first step in understanding nursing supply relative to potential pediatric demand using merged data from the American Hospital Association's annual survey and Census data by state from the year 2000. Findings indicate that there is tremendous variability among reporting states related to estimated pediatric nurses (registered nurse full-time equivalents), potential pediatric demand (persons from birth to 18 years), and allocated pediatric beds. Future research will examine how this supply-demand chain impacts clinical and cost outcomes for pediatric patients.

Quantitative habitability.

PubMed

Shock, Everett L; Holland, Melanie E

2007-12-01

A framework is proposed for a quantitative approach to studying habitability. Considerations of environmental supply and organismal demand of energy lead to the conclusions that power units are most appropriate and that the units for habitability become watts per organism. Extreme and plush environments are revealed to be on a habitability continuum, and extreme environments can be quantified as those where power supply only barely exceeds demand. Strategies for laboratory and field experiments are outlined that would quantify power supplies, power demands, and habitability. An example involving a comparison of various metabolisms pursued by halophiles is shown to be well on the way to a quantitative habitability analysis.

Vulnerability of U.S. water supply to shortage: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2012-01-01

Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indicates that, due to improving efficiency in water use, expected increases in population and economic activity do not by themselves pose a serious threat of large-scale water shortages. However, climate change can increase water demand and decrease water supply to the extent...

A Comparison of Supply and Demand for PETE Professionals in Higher Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyce, B. Ann; Rikard, G. Linda

2011-01-01

This study examined the supply and demand issues of D-PETE professionals in higher education. The three concerns addressed were: (a) doctoral graduates and their respective job placements in the academic years of 1996-97 through 2008-09, (b) an examination of two targeted academic years (2005-06 and 2008-09) to determine the supply of entry level…

42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... per square inch) with from 6 to 76 m. (15 to 250 feet) of air-supply hose. (c) The specified air... pounds per square inch gage). (d)(1) Where the pressure in the air-supply system exceeds 863 kN/m.2 (125 pounds per square inch gage), the respirator shall be equipped with a pressure-release mechanism that...

42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... per square inch) with from 6 to 76 m. (15 to 250 feet) of air-supply hose. (c) The specified air... pounds per square inch gage). (d)(1) Where the pressure in the air-supply system exceeds 863 kN/m.2 (125 pounds per square inch gage), the respirator shall be equipped with a pressure-release mechanism that...

42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... per square inch) with from 6 to 76 m. (15 to 250 feet) of air-supply hose. (c) The specified air... pounds per square inch gage). (d)(1) Where the pressure in the air-supply system exceeds 863 kN/m.2 (125 pounds per square inch gage), the respirator shall be equipped with a pressure-release mechanism that...

42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... per square inch) with from 6 to 76 m. (15 to 250 feet) of air-supply hose. (c) The specified air... pounds per square inch gage). (d)(1) Where the pressure in the air-supply system exceeds 863 kN/m.2 (125 pounds per square inch gage), the respirator shall be equipped with a pressure-release mechanism that...

42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... per square inch) with from 6 to 76 m. (15 to 250 feet) of air-supply hose. (c) The specified air... pounds per square inch gage). (d)(1) Where the pressure in the air-supply system exceeds 863 kN/m.2 (125 pounds per square inch gage), the respirator shall be equipped with a pressure-release mechanism that...

An Ode to Stuart Hall's "The Supply of Demand": The Case of Post-Secondary Education in Ontario Fifty Years Later

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

FitzGerald Murphy, Maggie

2016-01-01

Despite the fact that over fifty years have passed since its publication, Stuart Hall's article "The Supply of Demand" (1960), is remarkably relevant today. The central message that society must not be blinded by "prosperity" such that it no longer envisions and demands a better world is especially pertinent in light of the…

Supply and Demand Balances of Selected College-Level Fields Projected for the SREB [Southern Regional Education Board] States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engels, Richard A.; Galambos, Eva C.

Few manpower projects in Southern states have focused on the demand for the output of four-year colleges and universities. Even fewer have attempted to link projections of demand for degree programs to the supply of graduates generated by those programs. Moreover, none have set the state outlook for a particular college-trained skill within a…

Designing a reproductive health services package in the universal health insurance scheme in Thailand: match and mismatch of need, demand and supply.

PubMed

Teerawattananon, Yot; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2004-10-01

In October 2001 Thailand introduced universal healthcare coverage (UC) financed by general tax revenue. This paper aims to assess the design and content of the UC benefit package, focusing on the part of the package concerned with sexual and reproductive health (SRH). The economic concept of need, demand and supply in the process of developing the SRH package was applied to the analysis. The analysis indicated that SRH constitutes a major part of the package, including the control of communicable and non-communicable diseases, the promotion and maintenance of reproductive health, and early detection and management of reproductive health problems. In addition, the authors identified seven areas within three overlapping spheres; namely need, demand and supply. The burden of disease on reproductive conditions was used as a proxy indicator of health needs in the population; the findings of a study of private obstetric practice in public hospitals as a proxy of patients' demands; and the SRH services offered in the UC package as a proxy of general healthcare supply. The authors recommend that in order to ensure that healthcare needs match consumer demand, the inclusion of SRH services not currently offered in the package (e.g. treatment of HIV infection, abortion services) should be considered, if additional resources can be made available. Where health needs exist but consumers do not express demand, and the appropriate SRH services would provide external benefits to society (e.g. the programme for prevention of sexual and gender-related violence), policymakers are encouraged to expand and offer these services. Efforts should be made to create consumer awareness and stimulate demand. Research can play an important role in identifying the services in which supply matches demand but does not necessarily reflect the health needs of the population (e.g. unnecessary investigations and prescriptions). Where only demand or supply exists (e.g. breast cosmetic procedures and unproven effective interventions), these SRH services should be excluded from the package and left to private financing and providers, the government playing a regulatory role. Copyright 2004 Oxford University Press

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. water supplies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederick, K.D.; Schwarz, G.E.

1999-01-01

A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.

Intended and unintended consequences of China's zero markup drug policy.

PubMed

Yi, Hongmei; Miller, Grant; Zhang, Linxiu; Li, Shaoping; Rozelle, Scott

2015-08-01

Since economic liberalization in the late 1970s, China's health care providers have grown heavily reliant on revenue from drugs, which they both prescribe and sell. To curb abuse and to promote the availability, safety, and appropriate use of essential drugs, China introduced its national essential drug list in 2009 and implemented a zero markup policy designed to decouple provider compensation from drug prescription and sales. We collected and analyzed representative data from China's township health centers and their catchment-area populations both before and after the reform. We found large reductions in drug revenue, as intended by policy makers. However, we also found a doubling of inpatient care that appeared to be driven by supply, instead of demand. Thus, the reform had an important unintended consequence: China's health care providers have sought new, potentially inappropriate, forms of revenue. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Alcohol craving and demand mediate the relation between posttraumatic stress symptoms and alcohol-related consequences.

PubMed

Tripp, Jessica C; Meshesha, Lidia Z; Teeters, Jenni B; Pickover, Alison M; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Murphy, James G

2015-10-01

Posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms are associated with alcohol-related consequences, but there is a need to understand mediators that may help explain the reasons for this relationship. Individuals with PTS may experience elevated craving and alcohol reward value (demand), which may contribute to risk for alcohol-related consequences. We examined relationships between PTS status, craving, alcohol demand, and alcohol-related consequences in PTS-positive (n = 64) and PTS-negative (n = 200) college students (M age = 21.7; 77% women; 54% Caucasian; 34% African American) who endorsed past-month alcohol use. We tested craving and alcohol demand as mediators of the relation between PTS status and alcohol-related consequences. Craving (B = .04, SE = .02, 95% CI [.01, .10]), demand intensity (B = .02, SE = .02, 95% CI [.001, .07]), and demand elasticity (B = .05, SE = .03, 95% CI [.006, .12]) significantly mediated the association between PTS symptoms and alcohol-related consequences. Craving remained a significant mediator in a multiple mediators model (B = .08, SE = .04, 95% CI [.03, .19]). Craving and alcohol demand may partially explain the relation between PTS status and alcohol-related consequences. Craving may be especially salient for individuals with PTS symptoms, as it may lead to more severe alcohol-related consequences even in the absence of elevated alcohol consumption. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Money for consent--psychological consideration.

PubMed

Mayrhofer-Reinhartshuber, David; Fitzgerald, Annelies; Fitzgerald, Robert D

2005-01-01

Regarding the increasing gap between demand and supply of donor organs the question is increasingly discussed, if families of organ donors should receive a financial incentive for consenting to organ donation. However, little attention has been paid to the psychological consequences of such incentives. We discuss the question of financial incentives for families of presumed organ donors in the light of relevant psychological theories. Overview of the psychological literature. Only well established theories were included. We summarise, that financial benefits for consent to organ donoation could affect adversely the public opinion toward organ donation and the whole process of transplantation and thus could counterproductively influence the consent rates.

Managing water with better institutions: Building flexibility, innovation and lessons of best practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Msangi, S.

2014-12-01

Changing socio-economic conditions and global environmental change continue to put pressure on critical natural resources necessary for sustaining ecosystems and human well-being - including water. Increasing variability in water availability, deepening droughts and continuing demands and consumptive use have posed problems for resource managers and policy makers in many regions. While in some regions it is still possible to enhance supply, such as in under-exploited water basins in Africa - the majority of the world's heaviest water users are facing situations that call for more demand-side adjustments. This necessitates a change from engineering-focused solutions to more economic ones, especially where the costs of increasing supply (such as through de-salinization) are prohibitively expensive, or have unacceptable consequences for environmental sustainability. Despite many years and decades of studying water resource management problems, there is still too little guidance as to what institutional best-practices should be followed. Water resources tend to touch on a number of areas managed by different government departments and ministries (agriculture, aquaculture & fisheries, industry, natural resources, etc) - but there is still no common understanding of what the best governance arrangements are that lead to improved sectoral performance (however that is measured). Given the continuing efforts to invest in water resources management and development by major multi-lateral organizations such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank - this kind of institutional guidance is critical, if countries are to make the most of these investments. In this presentation, we review a number of cases in which previously supply-side oriented approaches have to be dealt with from the demand side, and why institutional flexibility and innovation is so important. We draw from examples of community-based groundwater management in India, groundwater overdraft management in China and the US, and try and synthesize some key priorities for further research and policy dialogue that are needed to enhance the sustainability of water resources in critical basins.

Estimating household water demand using revealed and contingent behaviors: Evidence from Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheesman, Jeremy; Bennett, Jeff; Son, Tran Vo Hung

2008-11-01

This article estimates the water demand of households using (1) municipal water exclusively and (2) municipal water and household well water in the capital city of Dak Lak Province in Vietnam. Household water demands are estimated using a panel data set formed by pooling household records of metered municipal water consumption and their stated preferences for water consumption contingent on hypothetical water prices. Estimates show that households using municipal water exclusively have very price inelastic demand. Households using municipal and household well water have more price elastic, but still inelastic, simultaneous water demand and treat municipal water and household well water as substitutes. Household water consumption is influenced by household water storage and supply infrastructure, income, and socioeconomic attributes. The demand estimates are used to forecast municipal water consumption by households in Buon Ma Thuot following an increase to the municipal water tariff to forecast the municipal water supply company's revenue stream following a tariff increase and to estimate the consumer surplus loss resulting from municipal water supply shortages.

Thinking Copernican Thoughts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamm, Richard D.

1977-01-01

The governor of Colorado explores two views related to causes of energy shortage: inadequate supply and excessive demand. Supports both increased supply and decreased demand, but offers reasons for conservation and adjustment in habits and thinking. The synthetic fuels program of Colorado is mentioned as an example. (CS)

Supply, Demand, and the Internet--Economic Lessons for Microeconomic Principles Courses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Englander, Fred; Moy, Ronald L.

2003-01-01

Addresses issues related to the ways in which the Internet is affecting supply and demand, competition, property rights, information costs, and economies of scale. Suggests ways to incorporate these topics into the study of microeconomics. (Contains 19 references.) (SK)

Water use trends and demand projections in the Northwest Florida Water Management District

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marella, R.L.; Mokray, M.F.; Hallock-Solomon, Michael

1998-01-01

The Northwest Florida Water Management District is located in the western panhandle of Florida and encompasses about 11,200 square miles. In 1995, the District had an estimated population of 1.13 million, an increase of about 47 percent from the 1975 population of 0.77 million. Over 50 percent of the resident population lives within 10 miles of the coast. In addition, hundreds of thousands of visitors come to the coastal areas of the panhandle during the summer months for recreation or vacation purposes. Water withdrawn to meet demands for public supply, domestic self-supplied, commercial-industrial, agricultural irrigation, and recreational irrigation purposes in the District increased 18 percent (52 million gallons per day) between 1970 and 1995. The greatest increases were for public supply and domestic self-supplied (99 percent increase) and for agricultural irrigation (60 percent increase) between 1970 and 1995. In 1995, approximately 70 percent of the water withdrawn was from ground-water sources, with the majority of this from the Floridan aquifer system. The increasing water demands have affected water levels in the Floridan aquifer system, especially along the coastal areas. The Northwest Florida Water Management District is mandated under the Florida Statutes (Chapter 373) to protect and manage the water resources in this area of the State. The mandate requires that current and future water demands be met, while water resources and water-dependent natural systems are sustained. For this project, curve fitting and extrapolation were used to project most of the variables (population, population served by public supply, and water use) to the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. This mathematical method involves fitting a curve to historical population or water-use data and then extending this curve to arrive at future values. The population within the region is projected to reach 1,596,888 by the year 2020, an increase of 41 percent between 1995 and 2020. Most of the population in this region will continue to reside in the urban areas of Pensacola and Tallahassee, and along the coastal areas. The population served by public water supply is projected to reach 1,353,836 by the year 2020, an increase of nearly 46 percent between 1995 and 2020. Total water demand for the Northwest Florida Water Management District is projected to reach 940.2 million gallons per day in 2000, 1,003.1 million gallons per day in 2010, and 1,059.1 million gallons per day in 2020. Excluding water withdrawn for power generation from these totals, water demands will increase 34 percent between 1995 and 2020, and 58 percent between 1970 and 2020. Specifically, public supply demands are projected to increase 74.1 million gallons per day (53 percent) and domestic self-supplied and small public supply systems demands are projected to increase 9.1 million gallons per day (28 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Commercial- industrial self-supplied demands are projected to increase about 16.9 million gallons per day (13 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Agricultural and recreational irrigation demands combined are projected to increase 16.8 million gallons per day (48 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Water demands for power generation are projected to increase about 53.9 million gallons per day (10 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Although power generation water use shows a projected increase during this time, plant capacities are not expected to change dramatically.

Examining sufficiency and equity in the geographic distribution of physicians in Japan: a longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Hara, Koji; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2017-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to longitudinally examine the geographic distribution of physicians in Japan with adjustment for healthcare demand according to changes in population age structure. Methods We examined trends in the number of physicians per 100 000 population in Japan's secondary medical areas (SMAs) from 2000 to 2014. Healthcare demand was adjusted using health expenditure per capita. Trends in the Gini coefficient and the number of SMAs with a low physician supply were analysed. A subgroup analysis was also conducted where SMAs were divided into 4 groups according to urban–rural classification and initial physician supply. Results The time-based changes in the Gini coefficient and the number of SMAs with a low physician supply indicated that the equity in physician distribution had worsened throughout the study period. The number of physicians per 100 000 population had seemingly increased in all groups, with increases of 22.9% and 34.5% in urban groups with higher and lower initial physician supply, respectively. However, after adjusting healthcare demand, physician supply decreased by 1.3% in the former group and increased by 3.5% in the latter group. Decreases were also observed in the rural groups, where the number of physicians decreased by 4.4% in the group with a higher initial physician supply and 7.6% in the group with a lower initial physician supply. Conclusions Although the total number of physicians increased in Japan, demand-adjusted physician supply decreased in recent years in all areas except for urban areas with a lower initial physician supply. In addition, the equity of physician distribution had consistently deteriorated since 2000. The results indicate that failing to adjust healthcare demand will produce misleading results, and that there is a need for major reform of Japan's healthcare system to improve physician distribution. PMID:28292766

A Supply and Demand Management Perspective on the Accelerated Global Introductions of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in a Constrained Supply Market.

PubMed

Lewis, Ian; Ottosen, Ann; Rubin, Jennifer; Blanc, Diana Chang; Zipursky, Simona; Wootton, Emily

2017-07-01

A total of 105 countries have introduced IPV as of September 2016 of which 85 have procured the vaccine through UNICEF. The Global Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 called for the rapid introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine immunization schedules in 126 all OPV-using countries by the end of 2015. At the time of initiating the procurement process, demand was estimated based on global modeling rather than individual country indications. In its capacity as procurement agency for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, UNICEF set out to secure access to IPV supply for around 100 countries. Based on offers received, sufficient supply was awarded to two manufacturers to meet projected routine requirements. However, due to technical issues scaling up vaccine production and an unforecasted demand for IPV use in campaigns to interrupt wild polio virus and to control type 2 vaccine derived polio virus outbreaks, IPV supplies are severely constrained. Activities to stretch supplies and to suppress demand have been ongoing since 2014, including delaying IPV introduction in countries where risks of type 2 reintroduction are lower, implementing the multi-dose vial policy, and encouraging the use of fractional dose delivered intradermally. Despite these efforts, there is still insufficient IPV supply to meet demand. The impact of the supply situation on IPV introduction timelines in countries are the focus of this article, and based on lessons learned with the IPV introductions, it is recommended for future health programs with accelerated scale up of programs, to take a cautious approach on supply commitments, putting in place clear allocation criteria in case of shortages or delays and establishing a communication strategy vis a vis beneficiaries. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

[Management of allocation of positions for specialist medical training].

PubMed

Alonso, M I

2003-01-01

Currently there is a large imbalance between supply and demand for medical specialists in the Spanish Health System. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the possible effects of current policies of allocating vacancies for interns and residents as well as to describe several measures and alternative policies. Using the methodology of System Dynamics, we designed a simulation model of the allocation process. Based on the validated model, possible changes in the system through time in response to diverse allocation policies were simulated. Specifically, changes in the accumulated number of graduates who over the years have remained without specialty, the number of unemployed specialists, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the period under consideration were observed. The results obtained from the simulation indicate that allocation policies such as the current one tends to reduce the accumulated number of graduates without specialty, due to the philosophy characterizing this policy, but that it considerably increases the number of unemployed specialists and aggravates the supply-demand imbalance. In the simulation, this tendency remained over time even though more restrictive measures in numerus clausus and retirement age were adopted. Equally, a policy based on social needs and aware of delays in training would substantially contribute to eliminating unemployment among specialists and supply-demand imbalance over time. If such a policy were combined with the above-mentioned measures the results would be even better, more rapidly eliminating graduates without specialty, unemployed specialists, and supply-demand imbalances. If the Health Administration continues with the current system of allocation of places, the present imbalance in supply and demand will become even worse. Therefore, new and far-sighted measures and policies are required, as well as greater coordination between undergraduate and postgraduate training.

Supply/Demand in Radiology: A Historical Perspective and Comparison to other Labor Markets.

PubMed

Sharafinski, Mark E; Nussbaum, David; Jha, Saurabh

2016-02-01

There has been attention on the job market recently and on radiology's supply/demand calculus. Supply is influenced by the number of trained radiologists, while demand is driven by demographics and technological innovation. We analyze the supply of radiologists historically and compare to other labor markets-medical and non-medical, domestic and foreign. We review National Resident Matching Program data in radiology and several other specialties from 1991 to 2015. We also review surveys, physician recruitment data, and peer-reviewed commentaries on medical specialty job markets. Trends are compared across specialties. The regulation of American medical training is compared to that in the United Kingdom and to a nonmedical labor market, unionized theatrical stage employees. Radiology residency positions have increased since 1998 despite a downturn in the job market. This expansion coincides with a decreasing percentage of positions filled by domestic graduates. A similar trend has been seen in pathology, a notoriously oversupplied specialty. Conversely, other specialties have maintained their proportion of domestic graduates by way of limited supply or implicit demand. The radiology job market is currently oversupplied, primarily a result of increasing residency positions despite indicators of decreasing demand. The percentage of residency positions filled by domestic graduates has decreased during the same period, suggesting that medical student interest is responsive to the market. Other specialties, particularly pathology, demonstrate the dangers of chronic oversupply. We advocate a reduction of radiology residency positions such that supply closely approximates demand without exceeding it. Additional measures may be taken, if necessary, to restore market equilibrium in the event of a mild undersupply. Copyright © 2015 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Production and supply of high-quality food protein for human consumption: sustainability, challenges, and innovations.

PubMed

Wu, Guoyao; Fanzo, Jessica; Miller, Dennis D; Pingali, Prabhu; Post, Mark; Steiner, Jean L; Thalacker-Mercer, Anna E

2014-08-01

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that 843 million people worldwide are hungry and a greater number suffer from nutrient deficiencies. Approximately one billion people have inadequate protein intake. The challenge of preventing hunger and malnutrition will become even greater as the global population grows from the current 7.2 billion people to 9.6 billion by 2050. With increases in income, population, and demand for more nutrient-dense foods, global meat production is projected to increase by 206 million tons per year during the next 35 years. These changes in population and dietary practices have led to a tremendous rise in the demand for food protein, especially animal-source protein. Consuming the required amounts of protein is fundamental to human growth and health. Protein needs can be met through intakes of animal and plant-source foods. Increased consumption of food proteins is associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and overutilization of water. Consequently, concerns exist regarding impacts of agricultural production, processing and distribution of food protein on the environment, ecosystem, and sustainability. To address these challenging issues, the New York Academy of Sciences organized the conference "Frontiers in Agricultural Sustainability: Studying the Protein Supply Chain to Improve Dietary Quality" to explore sustainable innovations in food science and programming aimed at producing the required quality and quantity of protein through improved supply chains worldwide. This report provides an extensive discussion of these issues and summaries of the presentations from the conference. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

2017-04-01

Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

A summary view of water supply and demand in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rantz, Saul E.

1972-01-01

This report presents a summary view of the water-supply situation in the nine counties that comprise the San Francisco Bay region, California, and thereby provides water data, based on 1970 conditions, that are needed for regional planning. For the purpose of this study the nine-county region has been divided into 15 subregions on the basis of hydrologic and economic considerations. Firm water supply is tabulated for each subregion by source--ground water, surface water, and imported water. Water demand in 1970 is tabulated for each subregion by type of use or demand--public supply, rural self-supply, irrigation, self-supplied industrial water and thermoelectric power generation. The San Francisco Bay region is dependent to a large degree on imported water. Under 1970 conditions of development, the firm water supply is 2.2 million acre-feet per year; of that quantity, almost 1 million acre-feet per year is imported water. The water demand in 1970 was 1.9 million acre-feet, about half of which was consumed. Under 1970 conditions of water development and use, a series of dry years would probably necessitate some curtailment of irrigation activities in four of the subregions, where the bulk of the demands i for irrigation water. Under those same conditions there is generally ample water for municipal and industrial use throughout the region, except in eastern Marin County where the firm municipal supple does not exceed the 1970 demand for municipal and industrial water. Although the firm water supply of the San Francisco Bay region, including imported water, is generally adequate to meet present needs, supplemental supply will be required to meet increased demand in the future. The expansion of existing surface-water facilities and the construction of new surface-water projects, now considered feasible, could provide a combined firm supplemental yield of slightly more than 1 million acre-feet per year, almost three-fourths of which would be available for import by those subregions that might experience a water deficient in the future. However, any supplemental water that might be developed by such alternative methods as desalination of brackish or salt water, weather modification, and various conservation measure, will correspondingly reduce requirement for supplemental water from the more conventional sources. The aspect of water quality is not discussed in this paper. Because of the present availability of imported water of good or acceptable quality, water quality, as it affects the supply, is not a serious problem at this time, except perhaps in local areas adjacent to San Francisco Bay and in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. In those areas ground water has been degraded by salinity intrusion. Although the prediction of future trends in population, land use, and water demand is beyond the scope of this report, there is not doubt that vigilance and careful planning will be required to prevent serious future deterioration of the quality of the water supply.

Modeling the impact of development and management options on future water resource use in the Nyangores sub-catchment of the Mara Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omonge, Paul; Herrnegger, Mathew; Fürst, Josef; Olang, Luke

2016-04-01

Despite the increasing water insecurity consequent of competing uses, the Nyangores sub-catchment of Kenya is yet to develop an inclusive water use and allocation plan for its water resource systems. As a step towards achieving this, this contribution employed the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system to evaluate selected policy based water development and management options for future planning purposes. Major water resources of the region were mapped and quantified to establish the current demand versus supply status. To define a reference scenario for subsequent model projections, additional data on urban and rural water consumption, water demand for crop types, daily water use for existing factories and industries were also collated through a rigorous fieldwork procedure. The model was calibrated using the parameter estimation tool (PEST) and validated against observed streamflow data, and subsequently used to simulate feasible management options. Due to lack of up-to-date data for the current year, the year 2000 was selected as the base year for the scenario simulations up to the year 2030, which has been set by the country for realizing most flagship development projects. From the results obtained, the current annual water demand within the sub-catchment is estimated to be around 27.2 million m3 of which 24% is being met through improved and protected water sources including springs, wells and boreholes, while 76% is met through informal and unprotected sources which are insufficient to cater for future increases in demand. Under the reference scenario, the WEAP model predicted an annual total inadequate supply of 8.1 million m3 mostly in the dry season by the year 2030. The current annual unmet water demand is 1.3 million m3 and is noteworthy in the dry seasons of December through February at the irrigation demand site. The monthly unmet domestic demand under High Population Growth (HPG) was projected to be 1.06 million m3 by the year 2030. However, within the improved Water Conservation Scenario (WCS), the total water demand is projected to decline by 24.2% in the same period. Key words: Nyangores catchment, Water Resources, WEAP, Scenario Analysis, Kenya

Hydrogen use projections and supply options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manvi, R.; Fujita, T.

1976-01-01

Two projections of future hydrogen demand, based on the Ford technical fix and the Westinghouse nuclear electric economy energy supply and demand scenarios, are analyzed. It is suggested that hydrogen use will increase during the remainder of this century by at least a factor of five, and perhaps by a factor of twenty. Primary energy sources for producing hydrogen are discussed in terms of the transition from low to high demand for hydrogen.

Energy and other non-renewable resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Anticipated U.S. demands for non-renewable energy and mineral resources exceed domestic supplies essential for economic growth. For the long term changes necessary in the energy supply and demand gap, new technologies and substitute materials as well as legislation and socio-economic strategies are elaborated.

Coordinating a Supply Chain with Price and Advertisement Dependent Stochastic Demand

PubMed Central

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong; Yan, Xiaoming

2013-01-01

This paper investigates pricing and ordering as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-retailer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the retailer who faces a stochastic demand depending on both retail price and advertising expenditure. Under the assumption that the market demand has a multiplicative functional form, the Stackelberg and cooperative game models are developed, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Comparisons and insights are presented. We show that a properly designed revenue-cost-sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win-win situation for channel members. We also discuss the allocation of the extra joint profit according to individual supply chain members' risk preferences and negotiating powers. PMID:24453832

Coordinating a supply chain with price and advertisement dependent stochastic demand.

PubMed

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong; Yan, Xiaoming

2013-01-01

This paper investigates pricing and ordering as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-retailer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the retailer who faces a stochastic demand depending on both retail price and advertising expenditure. Under the assumption that the market demand has a multiplicative functional form, the Stackelberg and cooperative game models are developed, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Comparisons and insights are presented. We show that a properly designed revenue-cost-sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win-win situation for channel members. We also discuss the allocation of the extra joint profit according to individual supply chain members' risk preferences and negotiating powers.

Development of the Optimum Operation Scheduling Model of Domestic Electric Appliances for the Supply-Demand Adjustment in a Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikegami, Takashi; Iwafune, Yumiko; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

The high penetration of variable renewable generation such as Photovoltaic (PV) systems will cause the issue of supply-demand imbalance in a whole power system. The activation of the residential power usage, storage and generation by sophisticated scheduling and control using the Home Energy Management System (HEMS) will be needed to balance power supply and demand in the near future. In order to evaluate the applicability of the HEMS as a distributed controller for local and system-wide supply-demand balances, we developed an optimum operation scheduling model of domestic electric appliances using the mixed integer linear programming. Applying this model to several houses with dynamic electricity prices reflecting the power balance of the total power system, it was found that the adequate changes in electricity prices bring about the shift of residential power usages to control the amount of the reverse power flow due to excess PV generation.

Modeling relief demands in an emergency supply chain system under large-scale disasters based on a queuing network.

PubMed

He, Xinhua; Hu, Wenfa

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model.

Supply-demand mismatch transients in susceptible peri-infarct hot zones explain the origins of spreading injury depolarizations.

PubMed

von Bornstädt, Daniel; Houben, Thijs; Seidel, Jessica L; Zheng, Yi; Dilekoz, Ergin; Qin, Tao; Sandow, Nora; Kura, Sreekanth; Eikermann-Haerter, Katharina; Endres, Matthias; Boas, David A; Moskowitz, Michael A; Lo, Eng H; Dreier, Jens P; Woitzik, Johannes; Sakadžić, Sava; Ayata, Cenk

2015-03-04

Peri-infarct depolarizations (PIDs) are seemingly spontaneous spreading depression-like waves that negatively impact tissue outcome in both experimental and human stroke. Factors triggering PIDs are unknown. Here, we show that somatosensory activation of peri-infarct cortex triggers PIDs when the activated cortex is within a critical range of ischemia. We show that the mechanism involves increased oxygen utilization within the activated cortex, worsening the supply-demand mismatch. We support the concept by clinical data showing that mismatch predisposes stroke patients to PIDs as well. Conversely, transient worsening of mismatch by episodic hypoxemia or hypotension also reproducibly triggers PIDs. Therefore, PIDs are triggered upon supply-demand mismatch transients in metastable peri-infarct hot zones due to increased demand or reduced supply. Based on the data, we propose that minimizing sensory stimulation and hypoxic or hypotensive transients in stroke and brain injury would reduce PID incidence and their adverse impact on outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost analysis of concepts for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation.

PubMed

Hahn, Henning; Ganagin, Waldemar; Hartmann, Kilian; Wachendorf, Michael

2014-10-01

With the share of intermittent renewable energies within the electricity system rising, balancing services from dispatchable power plants are of increasing importance. Highlighting the importance of the need to keeping fuel costs for flexible power generation to a minimum, the study aims to identify favourable biogas plant configurations, supplying biogas on demand. A cost analysis of five configurations based on biogas storing and flexible biogas production concepts has been carried out. Results show that additional flexibility costs for a biogas supply of 8h per day range between 2€ and 11€MWh(-1) and for a 72h period without biogas demand from 9€ to 19€MWh(-1). While biogas storage concepts were identified as favourable short term supply configurations, flexible biogas production concepts profit from reduced storage requirements at plants with large biogas production capacities or for periods of several hours without biogas demand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supply-demand mismatch transients in susceptible peri-infarct hot zones explain the origin of spreading injury depolarizations

PubMed Central

von Bornstädt, Daniel; Houben, Thijs; Seidel, Jessica; Zheng, Yi; Dilekoz, Ergin; Qin, Tao; Sandow, Nora; Kura, Sreekanth; Eikermann-Haerter, Katharina; Endres, Matthias; Boas, David A.; Moskowitz, Michael A.; Lo, Eng H.; Dreier, Jens P.; Woitzik, Johannes; Sakadžić, Sava; Ayata, Cenk

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Peri-infarct depolarizations (PIDs) are seemingly spontaneous spreading depression-like waves that negatively impact tissue outcome in both experimental and human stroke. Factors triggering PIDs are unknown. Here, we show that somatosensory activation of peri-infarct cortex triggers PIDs when the activated cortex is within a critical range of ischemia. We show that the mechanism involves increased oxygen utilization within the activated cortex, worsening the supply-demand mismatch. We support the concept by clinical data showing that mismatch predisposes to PIDs in human stroke as well. Conversely, transient worsening of mismatch by episodic hypoxemia or hypotension also reproducibly triggers PIDs. Therefore, PIDs are triggered upon supply-demand mismatch transients in metastable peri-infarct hot zones due to increased demand or reduced supply. Based on the data, we propose that minimizing sensory stimulation and hypoxic or hypotensive transients in stroke and brain injury would reduce PID incidence and their adverse impact on outcome. PMID:25741731

Exploring the oxygen supply and demand framework as a learning tool in undergraduate nursing education.

PubMed

Gillespie, Mary; Shackell, Eileen

2017-11-01

In nursing education, physiological concepts are typically presented within a body 'systems' framework yet learners are often challenged to apply this knowledge in the holistic and functional manner needed for effective clinical decision-making and safe patient care. A nursing faculty addressed this learning challenge by developing an advanced organizer as a conceptual and integrative learning tool to support learners in diverse learning environments and practice settings. A mixed methods research study was conducted that explored the effectiveness of the Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework as a learning tool in undergraduate nursing education. A pretest/post-test assessment and reflective journal were used to gather data. Findings indicated the Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework guided the development of pattern recognition and thinking processes and supported knowledge development, knowledge application and clinical decision-making. The Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework supports undergraduate students learning to provide safe and effective nursing care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Relief Demands in an Emergency Supply Chain System under Large-Scale Disasters Based on a Queuing Network

PubMed Central

He, Xinhua

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model. PMID:24688367

Autonomous Decentralized Control of Supply and Demand by Inverter Based Distributed Generations in Isolated Microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiki, Akira; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Baba, Jyunpei; Takano, Tomihiro; Gouda, Takahiro; Izui, Yoshio

Recently, because of the environmental burden mitigation, energy conservations, energy security, and cost reductions, distributed generations are attracting our strong attention. These distributed generations (DGs) have been already installed to the distribution system, and much more DGs will be expected to be connected in the future. On the other hand, a new concept called “Microgrid” which is a small power supply network consisting of only DGs was proposed and some prototype projects are ongoing in Japan. The purpose of this paper is to develop the three-phase instantaneous valued digital simulator of microgrid consisting of a lot of inverter based DGs and to develop a supply and demand control method in isolated microgrid. First, microgrid is modeled using MATLAB/SIMULINK. We develop models of three-phase instantaneous valued inverter type CVCF generator, PQ specified generator, PV specified generator, PQ specified load as storage battery, photovoltaic generation, fuel cell and inverter load respectively. Then we propose an autonomous decentralized control method of supply and demand in isolated microgrid where storage batteries, fuel cells, photovoltaic generations and loads are connected. It is proposed here that the system frequency is used as a means to control DG output. By changing the frequency of the storage battery due to unbalance of supply and demand, all inverter based DGs detect the frequency fluctuation and change their own outputs. Finally, a new frequency control method in autonomous decentralized control of supply and demand is proposed. Though the frequency is used to transmit the information on the supply and demand unbalance to DGs, after the frequency plays the role, the frequency finally has to return to a standard value. To return the frequency to the standard value, the characteristic curve of the fuel cell is shifted in parallel. This control is carried out corresponding to the fluctuation of the load. The simulation shows that the frequency can be controlled well and has been made clear the effectiveness of the frequency control system.

Food, Feed and Fuel: a Story About Nitrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galloway, J. N.; Burke, M. B.; Mooney, H. A.; Steinfeld, H.

2008-12-01

Humans obtain metabolic energy by eating food. Nitrogen is required to grow food, but natural supplies of N for human purposes have been inadequate since the beginning of the twentieth century. The Haber-Bosch process now provides a virtually inexhaustible supply of nitrogen, limited primarily by the cost of energy. However, most nitrogen used in food production is lost to the environment, where it cascades through environmental reservoirs contributing to many of the major environmental issues of the day. Furthermore, growing international trade in nitrogen-containing commodities is increasingly replacing wind and water as an important international transporter of nitrogen around the globe. Finally, the rapid growth in crop-based biofuels, and its attendant effects on the global production and trade of all agricultural commodities, could greatly affect global patterns of N use and loss. In the light of the findings above, this paper examines the role of nitrogen in food, feed and fuel production. It describes the beneficial consequences for food production and the negative consequences associated with the commodity nitrogen cascade and the environmental nitrogen cascade. The paper reviews estimates of future projections of nitrogen demands for food and fuel, including the impact of changing diets in the developing world. The paper concludes by presenting the potential interactions among global change, agricultural production and the nitrogen and carbon cycles.

The UK waste input-output table: Linking waste generation to the UK economy.

PubMed

Salemdeeb, Ramy; Al-Tabbaa, Abir; Reynolds, Christian

2016-10-01

In order to achieve a circular economy, there must be a greater understanding of the links between economic activity and waste generation. This study introduces the first version of the UK waste input-output table that could be used to quantify both direct and indirect waste arisings across the supply chain. The proposed waste input-output table features 21 industrial sectors and 34 waste types and is for the 2010 time-period. Using the waste input-output table, the study results quantitatively confirm that sectors with a long supply chain (i.e. manufacturing and services sectors) have higher indirect waste generation rates compared with industrial primary sectors (e.g. mining and quarrying) and sectors with a shorter supply chain (e.g. construction). Results also reveal that the construction, mining and quarrying sectors have the highest waste generation rates, 742 and 694 tonne per £1m of final demand, respectively. Owing to the aggregated format of the first version of the waste input-output, the model does not address the relationship between waste generation and recycling activities. Therefore, an updated version of the waste input-output table is expected be developed considering this issue. Consequently, the expanded model would lead to a better understanding of waste and resource flows in the supply chain. © The Author(s) 2016.

Potential for deserts to supply reliable renewable electric power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labordena, Mercè; Lilliestam, Johan

2015-04-01

To avoid dangerous climate change, the electricity systems must be decarbonized by mid-century. The world has sufficient renewable electricity resources for complete power sector decarbonization, but an expansion of renewables poses several challenges for the electricity systems. First, wind and solar PV power are intermittent and supply-controlled, making it difficult to securely integrate this fluctuating generation into the power systems. Consequently, power sources that are both renewable and dispatchable, such as biomass, hydro and concentrating solar power (CSP), are particularly important. Second, renewable power has a low power density and needs vast areas of land, which is problematic both due to cost reasons and due to land-use conflicts, in particular with agriculture. Renewable and dispatchable technologies that can be built in sparsely inhabited regions or on land with low competition with agriculture would therefore be especially valuable; this land-use competition greatly limits the potential for hydro and biomass electricity. Deserts, however, are precisely such low-competition land, and are at the same time the most suited places for CSP generation, but this option would necessitate long transmission lines from remote places in the deserts to the demand centers such as big cities. We therefore study the potential for fleets of CSP plants in the large deserts of the world to produce reliable and reasonable-cost renewable electricity for regions with high and/or rapidly increasing electricity demand and with a desert within or close to its borders. The regions in focus here are the European Union, North Africa and the Middle East, China and Australia. We conduct the analysis in three steps. First, we identify the best solar generation areas in the selected deserts using geographic information systems (GIS), and applying restrictions to minimize impact on biodiversity, soils, human heath, and land-use and land-cover change. Second, we identify transmission corridors from the generation areas to the demand centers in the target regions, using a GIS-based transmission algorithm that minimizes economic, social and environmental costs. Third, we use the multi-scale energy system model Calliope to specify the optimal configuration and operation of the CSP fleet to reliably follow the demand every hour of the year in the target regions, and to calculate the levelized cost of doing so, including both generation and transmission costs. The final output will show whether and how much reliable renewable electricity can be supplied from CSP fleets in deserts to demand centers in adjacent regions, at which costs this is possible, as well as a detailed description of the routes of HVDC transmission links. We expect to find that the potential for deserts to supply reliable CSP to the regions in focus is very large in all cases, despite the long distances.

Pollution source localization in an urban water supply network based on dynamic water demand.

PubMed

Yan, Xuesong; Zhu, Zhixin; Li, Tian

2017-10-27

Urban water supply networks are susceptible to intentional, accidental chemical, and biological pollution, which pose a threat to the health of consumers. In recent years, drinking-water pollution incidents have occurred frequently, seriously endangering social stability and security. The real-time monitoring for water quality can be effectively implemented by placing sensors in the water supply network. However, locating the source of pollution through the data detection obtained by water quality sensors is a challenging problem. The difficulty lies in the limited number of sensors, large number of water supply network nodes, and dynamic user demand for water, which leads the pollution source localization problem to an uncertainty, large-scale, and dynamic optimization problem. In this paper, we mainly study the dynamics of the pollution source localization problem. Previous studies of pollution source localization assume that hydraulic inputs (e.g., water demand of consumers) are known. However, because of the inherent variability of urban water demand, the problem is essentially a fluctuating dynamic problem of consumer's water demand. In this paper, the water demand is considered to be stochastic in nature and can be described using Gaussian model or autoregressive model. On this basis, an optimization algorithm is proposed based on these two dynamic water demand change models to locate the pollution source. The objective of the proposed algorithm is to find the locations and concentrations of pollution sources that meet the minimum between the analogue and detection values of the sensor. Simulation experiments were conducted using two different sizes of urban water supply network data, and the experimental results were compared with those of the standard genetic algorithm.

Characterizing the Recurrence of Hydrologic Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cancelliere, A.; Salas, J. D.

2002-12-01

Characterizing periods of deficit and drought has been an important aspect in planning and management of water resources systems for many decades. An extreme drought is a complex phenomenon that evolves through time and space in a random fashion. It may be characterized by its initiation, duration, severity (magnitude or intensity), spatial extent, and termination. These characteristics may be determined by comparing the water supply time series versus the corresponding water demand series in the area of consideration. Because the water supply quantities such as rainfall and streamflow are stochastic variables the ensuing drought characteristics are random and must be described in probabilistic terms. Let us consider a periodic stochastic water supply and a variable water demand series. A drought event is defined as a succession of consecutive periods (run) in which the water supply remains below the water demand. Thus, the drought length L (negative run length) is the number of consecutive time intervals (seasons) in which the water supply remains below the water demand, preceded and followed by (at least one season where) the water supply is equal or greater than the demand. Likewise, the difference between the water demand and the supply at time t is the magnitude of the deficit at time t so that the accumulated deficit D (drought magnitude) is the sum of the deficits over the drought duration L. In the study reported herein, the probability density functions (pdf) of drought length and drought magnitude and their low order moments are derived assuming that the underlying water supply series after is clipped by a constant or periodic water demand results in a periodic dependent binary series that is represented by a periodic two-state Markov chain. The derived pdfs allow estimating the occurrence probabilities of droughts of a given length where either the drought begins in a given season or regardless of the initial season. In addition, the return periods of droughts (based on length and magnitude) are determined. The applicability of the drought formulations is illustrated using several series of precipitation and streamflow in Sicily, Italy and Colorado, USA. The results obtained show an excellent agreement between the observed and theoretical results. In conclusion, the proposed methods appear to be a useful addition for drought analysis and characterization using stochastic methods.

Going Digital in Rural America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malecki, Edward J.

This paper examines the extent to which rural America is digital--has access to the Internet and to newer technologies such as wireless broadband--and discusses rural supply and demand for "going digital." Supply aspects include issues of both infrastructure and public policy. Demand aspects include entrepreneurs (business users) and…

Supply and Demand Mismatches in Training: Can Anything Be Done?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castro, Claudio de Moura; de Andrade, Antonio Cabral

1990-01-01

Vocational training often fails to provide what employers need and students want. To correct supply/demand mismatches requires improving feedback from employers, increasing the flow of information, bringing schools closer to businesses, rewarding institutions for successful employment of graduates, and providing incentives for entrepreneurs. (SK)

Ecological balance between supply and demand based on cultivated land ecological footprint method in Guizhou Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Qinghuan; Zhou, Dequan; Bai, Xiaoyong; Xiao, Jianyong; Chen, Fei; Zeng, Cheng

2018-01-01

In order to construct the indicators of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity, basing on the relation of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity supply and demand, applying the model of Cultivated Land Ecological Footprints and the method of CIS and considering the factors of cultivated land production, taking the statistical data of 2015 as an example, and then made a systematic evaluation of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou Province. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of supply and demand of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou is unbalanced, and the northern and eastern parts are the overloading area, the middle, the south and the west parts are the balance area. (2) From the perspective of cultivated land structure, the crops with ecological carrying capacity surplus were rice, vegetables and peanuts, among which rice was the highest and the ecological balance index was 0.7354. The crops with ecological carrying capacity overload were potato, wheat, maize, rapeseeds, soybeans and cured tobacco, of which the index of potato up to 7.11, other types of indices are less than 1.5. The research can provide the ecological security early warning, the overall plan of land use and sustainable development of the area cultivated land with scientific evidence and decision support.

Age-specific bone tumour incidence rates are governed by stem cell exhaustion influencing the supply and demand of progenitor cells.

PubMed

Richardson, Richard B

2014-07-01

Knudson's carcinogenic model, which simulates incidence rates for retinoblastoma, provides compelling evidence for a two-stage mutational process. However, for more complex cancers, existing multistage models are less convincing. To fill this gap, I hypothesize that neoplasms preferentially arise when stem cell exhaustion creates a short supply of progenitor cells at ages of high proliferative demand. To test this hypothesis, published datasets were employed to model the age distribution of osteochondroma, a benign lesion, and osteosarcoma, a malignant one. The supply of chondrogenic stem-like cells in femur growth plates of children and adolescents was evaluated and compared with the progenitor cell demand of longitudinal bone growth. Similarly, the supply of osteoprogenitor cells from birth to old age was compared with the demands of bone formation. Results show that progenitor cell demand-to-supply ratios are a good risk indicator, exhibiting similar trends to the unimodal and bimodal age distributions of osteochondroma and osteosarcoma, respectively. The hypothesis also helps explain Peto's paradox and the finding that taller individuals are more prone to cancers and have shorter lifespans. The hypothesis was tested, in the manner of Knudson, by its ability to convincingly explain and demonstrate, for the first time, a bone tumour's bimodal age-incidence curve. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water supply, demand, and quality indicators for assessing the spatial distribution of water resource vulnerability in the Columbia River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Strecker, Angela L.; Wise, Daniel; Lafrenz, Martin; Shandas, Vivek; ,; Yeakley, Alan; Pan, Yangdong; Johnson, Gunnar; Psaris, Mike

2013-01-01

We investigated water resource vulnerability in the US portion of the Columbia River basin (CRB) using multiple indicators representing water supply, water demand, and water quality. Based on the US county scale, spatial analysis was conducted using various biophysical and socio-economic indicators that control water vulnerability. Water supply vulnerability and water demand vulnerability exhibited a similar spatial clustering of hotspots in areas where agricultural lands and variability of precipitation were high but dam storage capacity was low. The hotspots of water quality vulnerability were clustered around the main stem of the Columbia River where major population and agricultural centres are located. This multiple equal weight indicator approach confirmed that different drivers were associated with different vulnerability maps in the sub-basins of the CRB. Water quality variables are more important than water supply and water demand variables in the Willamette River basin, whereas water supply and demand variables are more important than water quality variables in the Upper Snake and Upper Columbia River basins. This result suggests that current water resources management and practices drive much of the vulnerability within the study area. The analysis suggests the need for increased coordination of water management across multiple levels of water governance to reduce water resource vulnerability in the CRB and a potentially different weighting scheme that explicitly takes into account the input of various water stakeholders.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

2017-01-01

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability.

PubMed

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J; Peel, Murray C; Phillips, Thomas J; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K

2017-07-24

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Meeting China's electricity needs through clean energy sources: A 2030 low-carbon energy roadmap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zheng

China is undergoing rapid economic development that generates significant increase in energy demand, primarily for electricity. Energy supply in China is heavily relying on coal, which leads to high carbon emissions. This dissertation explores opportunities for meeting China's growing power demand through clean energy sources. The utilization of China's clean energy sources as well as demand-side management is still at the initial phase. Therefore, development of clean energy sources would require substantial government support in order to be competitive in the market. One of the widely used means to consider clean energy in power sector supplying is Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which aims to minimize the long term electricity costs while screening various power supply options for the power supply and demand analysis. The IRSP tool tackles the energy problem from the perspective of power sector regulators, and provides different policy scenarios to quantify the impacts of combined incentives. Through three scenario studies, Business as Usual, High Renewable, and Renewable and Demand Side Management, this dissertation identifies the optimized scenario for China to achieve the clean energy target of 2030. The scenarios are assessed through energy, economics, environment, and equity dimensions.

Advancing Cost-Effective Readiness by Improving the Supply Chain Management of Sparse, Intermittently-Demanded Parts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

DEMANDED PARTS DISSERTATION Gregory H. Gehret AFIT-ENS-DS-15-M- 256 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE...protection in the United States. AFIT-ENS-DS-15-M- 256 ADVANCING COST-EFFECTIVE READINESS BY IMPROVING THE SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT OF SPARSE...RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. AFIT-ENS-DS-15-M- 256 ADVANCING COST-EFFECTIVE READINESS BY IMPROVING THE SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT OF SPARSE

Recreational Small Boat Moorage Study: Puget Sound and Adjacent Waters, State of Washington

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

pro - tection is normally required. Additional floats at established marinas will, in most instances- be sufficient to supply the needs of the...others. Information is provided on pleasure boat dwership; wet and dry moorage supply ; and demand for permanent, teppar y, and transient summer and...and 4 cover moorage supply and demand, respectively, while potential marina sites are con- sidered in chapter 5 and boat launching facilities in

Water stress as a trigger of demand change: exploring the implications for drought planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.; Portney, K. E.

2015-12-01

Drought in the Anthropocene is a function of both supply and demand. Despite its importance, demand is typically incorporated into planning models exogenously using a single scenario of demand change over time. Alternatively, demand is incorporated endogenously in hydro-economic models based on the assumption of rationality. However, actors are constrained by limited information and information processing capabilities, casting doubt on the rationality assumption. Though the risk of water shortage changes incrementally with demand growth and hydrologic change, significant shifts in management are punctuated and often linked to periods of stress. The observation of lasting decreases in per capita demands in a number of cities during periods of water stress prompts an alternate hypothesis: the occurrence of water stress increases the tendency of cities to promote and enforce efficient technologies and behaviors and the tendency of users to adopt them. We show the relevance of this hypothesis by building a model of a hypothetical surface water system to answer the following question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? The model links the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). Under SOP, demand is fulfilled unless available supply drops below demand; under HP, water releases are reduced in anticipation of a deficit to decrease the risk of a large shortfall. The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decrease during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies.

Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany.

PubMed

Maier, Tobias; Afentakis, Anja

2013-06-05

In light of Germany's ageing society, demand for nursing professionals is expected to increase in the coming years. This will pose a challenge for policy makers to increase the supply of nursing professionals. To portray the different possible developments in the supply of nursing professionals, we projected the supply of formally trained nurses and the potential supply of persons who are able to work in a nursing profession. This potential supply of nursing professionals was calculated on the basis of empirical information on occupational mobility provided by the German Microcensus 2005 (Labour Force Survey). We also calculated how the supply of full-time equivalents (FTEs) will develop if current employment structures develop in the direction of employment behaviour in nursing professions in eastern and western Germany. We then compared these different supply scenarios with two demand projections ('status quo' and 'compression of morbidity' scenarios) from Germany's Federal Statistical Office. Our results show that, even as early as 2005, meeting demand for FTEs in nursing professions was not arithmetically possible when only persons with formal qualification in a nursing profession were taken into account on the supply side. When additional semi-skilled nursing professionals are included in the calculation, a shortage of labour in nursing professions can be expected in 2018 when the employment structure for all nursing professionals remains the same as the employment structure seen in Germany in 2005 (demand: 'status quo scenario'). Furthermore, given an employment structure as in eastern Germany, where more nursing professionals work on a full-time basis with longer working hours, a theoretical shortage of nursing professionals could be delayed until 2024. Our analysis of occupational flexibility in the nursing field indicates that additional potential supply could be generated by especially training more young people for a nursing profession as they tend to stay in their initial occupation. Furthermore, the number of FTEs in nursing professions could be increased by promoting more full-time contracts in Western Germany. Additionally, employment contracts for just a small number of weekly working hours (marginal employment) cannot be considered an adequate instrument for keeping formally trained nursing professionals employed in the nursing field.

Mechanics of Flapping Flight: Analytical Formulations of Unsteady Aerodynamics, Kinematic Optimization, Flight Dynamics, and Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taneja, Jayant Kumar

Electricity is an indispensable commodity to modern society, yet it is delivered via a grid architecture that remains largely unchanged over the past century. A host of factors are conspiring to topple this dated yet venerated design: developments in renewable electricity generation technology, policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and advances in information technology for managing energy systems. Modern electric grids are emerging as complex distributed systems in which a portfolio of power generation resources, often incorporating fluctuating renewable resources such as wind and solar, must be managed dynamically to meet uncontrolled, time-varying demand. Uncertainty in both supply and demand makes control of modern electric grids fundamentally more challenging, and growing portfolios of renewables exacerbate the challenge. We study three electricity grids: the state of California, the province of Ontario, and the country of Germany. To understand the effects of increasing renewables, we develop a methodology to scale renewables penetration. Analyzing these grids yields key insights about rigid limits to renewables penetration and their implications in meeting long-term emissions targets. We argue that to achieve deep penetration of renewables, the operational model of the grid must be inverted, changing the paradigm from load-following supplies to supply-following loads. To alleviate the challenge of supply-demand matching on deeply renewable grids, we first examine well-known techniques, including altering management of existing supply resources, employing utility-scale energy storage, targeting energy efficiency improvements, and exercising basic demand-side management. Then, we create several instantiations of supply-following loads -- including refrigerators, heating and cooling systems, and laptop computers -- by employing a combination of sensor networks, advanced control techniques, and enhanced energy storage. We examine the capacity of each load for supply-following and study the behaviors of populations of these loads, assessing their potential at various levels of deployment throughout the California electricity grid. Using combinations of supply-following strategies, we can reduce peak natural gas generation by 19% on a model of the California grid with 60% renewables. We then assess remaining variability on this deeply renewable grid incorporating supply-following loads, characterizing additional capabilities needed to ensure supply-demand matching in future sustainable electricity grids.

Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists : Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services

PubMed Central

Erikson, Clese; Salsberg, Edward; Forte, Gaetano; Bruinooge, Suanna; Goldstein, Michael

2007-01-01

Purpose To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. Methods New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000–2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. Results Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists—roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not include any alterations based on changes in practice patterns, service use, or cancer treatments. Various alternate scenarios were also developed to show how supply and demand might change under different assumptions. Conclusions ASCO, policy makers, and the public have major challenges ahead of them to forestall likely shortages in the capacity to meet future demand for oncology services. A multifaceted strategy will be needed to ensure that Americans have access to oncology services in 2020, as no single action will fill the likely gap between supply and demand. Among the options to consider are increasing the number of oncology fellowship positions, increasing use of nonphysician clinicians, increasing the role of primary care physicians in the care of patients in remission, and redesigning service delivery. PMID:20859376

Causes and consequences of ecosystem service regionalization in a coastal suburban watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Mark B. Green,; Pellerin, Brian A.; Morse, Nathaniel B.; Hopkinson, Charles S.

2015-01-01

The demand for ecosystem services and the ability of natural ecosystems to provide those services evolve over time as population, land use, and management practices change. Regionalization of ecosystem service activity, or the expansion of the area providing ecosystem services to a population, is a common response in densely populated coastal regions, with important consequences for watershed water and nitrogen (N) fluxes to the coastal zone. We link biophysical and historical information to explore the causes and consequences of change in ecosystem service activity—focusing on water provisioning and N regulation—from 1850 to 2010 in a coastal suburban watershed, the Ipswich River watershed in northeastern Massachusetts, USA. Net interbasin water transfers started in the late 1800s due to regionalization of water supply for use by larger populations living outside the Ipswich watershed boundaries, reaching a peak in the mid-1980s. Over much of the twentieth century, about 20 % of river runoff was diverted from reaching the estuary, with greater proportions during drought years. Ongoing regionalization of water supply has contributed to recent declines in diversions, influenced by socioecological feedbacks resulting from the river drying and fish kills. Similarly, the N budget has been greatly perturbed since the suburban era began in the 1950s due to food and lawn fertilizer imports and human waste release. However, natural ecosystems are able to remove most of this anthropogenic N, mitigating impacts on the coastal zone. We propose a conceptual model whereby the amount and type of ecosystem services provided by coastal watersheds in urban regions expand and contract over time as regional population expands and ecosystem services are regionalized. We hypothesize that suburban watersheds can be hotspots of ecosystem service sources because they retain sufficient ecosystem function to still produce services that meet increasing demand from the local population and nearby urban centers. Historical reconstruction of ecosystem service activity provides a perspective that may help to better understand coupled human–natural system processes and lead to more sustainable management of coastal ecosystems.

Study on the Supply of and Demand for Teachers in Primary and Secondary Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This international survey is the "consolidated report," bringing out problems raised and the means adopted to overcome persistent disequilibrium between the supply and demand for teachers, based on eleven "country studies" describing the situation in selected member countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy,…

Issues in HRD. Symposium.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2002

This document contains four papers on issues in human resource development (HRD). "Employability By Sector of Industry: Taking Account of Supply and Demand Characteristics (Andries de Grip, Jasper B. van Loo, Jos M.A.F. Sanders) reports on development of an Industry Employability Index that integrates both supply and demand determinants of…

Georgia's Health Professions: A Decade of Change, 1985-1995.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Libby V.; Little, Catherine J.

This report examines the supply of and demand for health care professionals in the state of Georgia, including information on education, demographics, and workforce changes. Supply data analyzed included licensure and certification records; a survey of Georgia's major health care institutions provided demand data. Additionally, institutions of…

Texas Supply/Demand Information System for Vocational Education. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas Education Agency, Austin.

Principal objectives of a Texas project conducted from July 1974 through December 1976 were to complete the research, development, and implementation of statewide matching of supply by occupation (those available for employment) to demand by occupation (employment opportunities). The problem was approached through a modular system consisting of…

Ohio Teacher Supply and Demand 1991.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowers, G. Robert

Teacher supply and demand in the public schools of Ohio depend on such factors as enrollment trends, subject-election patterns, staffing ratios, employment practices, turnover rates, and the number of graduates from teachers' colleges. Data contained in this report have been collected and maintained by the Ohio State Department of Education since…

Water resources adaptation to climate and demand change in the Potomac river

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The effects of climate change are increasingly considered in conjunction with changes in water demand and reservoir sedimentation in forecasts of water supply vulnerability. Here, the relative effects of these factors are evaluated for the Washington, DC metropolitan area water supply for the near f...

Agri-Manpower Forecasting and Educational Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramarao, D.; Agrawal, Rashmi; Rao, B. V. L. N.; Nanda, S. K.; Joshi, Girish P.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Developing countries need to plan growth or expansion of education so as to provide required trained manpower for different occupational sectors. The paper assesses supply and demand of professional manpower in Indian agriculture and the demands are translated in to educational requirements. Methodology: The supply is assessed from the…

Alabama Allied Health Needs Assessment Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Libby V.

This study assessed the supply of and demand for allied health professionals in Alabama, focusing on the relationship between supply and demand in various workplace settings in the context of Alabama's demographics, current educational programs, and projected changes in health care. The health care professions included in the study were all fields…

Analysis of U.S. Propane Markets Winter 1996-97, An

EIA Publications

1997-01-01

This study constitutes an examination of propane supply, demand, and price developments and trends. The Energy Information Administration's approach focused on identifying the underlying reasons for the tight supply/demand balance in the fall of 1996, and on examining the potential for a recurrence of these events next year.

Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elwood, S. Kirk

2001-01-01

Explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Presents a simple modification of the model that differentiates between production and absorption of goods, which enables it to better reflect the effects of oil-price shocks on open economies. (RLH)

An integrated study of earth resources in the State of California using remote sensing techniques. [supply, demand, and impact of California water resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, R. N.; Burgy, R. H.; Algazi, V. R.; Draeger, W. C.; Estes, J. E.; Bowden, L. W. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The supply, demand, and impact relationships of California's water resources as exemplified by the Feather River project and other aspects of the California Water Plan are discussed.

Energy Sustainability and the Green Campus.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Walter

2003-01-01

Discusses the importance of campus energy sustainability, explaining that both demand- and supply-side strategies are required. Suggests that on the demand side, an aggressive campus energy conservation program can reduce campus energy consumption by 30 percent or more. Asserts that addressing the supply side of the energy equation means shifting…

20 CFR 655.315 - State plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

.... citizens and permanent resident aliens who are authorized to perform nursing services in the State. (a) Who... the overall issue of supply of and demand for nurses within the State, with particular emphasis on measures to develop a sufficient supply of U.S. nurses to meet projected demand. The State, as opposed to...

20 CFR 655.315 - State plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

.... citizens and permanent resident aliens who are authorized to perform nursing services in the State. (a) Who... the overall issue of supply of and demand for nurses within the State, with particular emphasis on measures to develop a sufficient supply of U.S. nurses to meet projected demand. The State, as opposed to...

20 CFR 655.315 - State plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

.... citizens and permanent resident aliens who are authorized to perform nursing services in the State. (a) Who... the overall issue of supply of and demand for nurses within the State, with particular emphasis on measures to develop a sufficient supply of U.S. nurses to meet projected demand. The State, as opposed to...

20 CFR 655.315 - State plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

.... citizens and permanent resident aliens who are authorized to perform nursing services in the State. (a) Who... the overall issue of supply of and demand for nurses within the State, with particular emphasis on measures to develop a sufficient supply of U.S. nurses to meet projected demand. The State, as opposed to...

Food retailer practices, attitudes and beliefs about the supply of healthy foods.

PubMed

Andreyeva, Tatiana; Middleton, Ann E; Long, Michael W; Luedicke, Joerg; Schwartz, Marlene B

2011-06-01

Non-supermarket food retailers can be a promising channel for increasing the availability of healthy foods in underserved communities. The present paper reports on retailer practices, attitudes and beliefs about the supply of healthy foods before and after the introduction of new subsidies for healthy foods by the US Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) in October 2009. We designed and conducted in-person standardized interviews with store owners and managers to assess perceptions of demand and profits for different foods, supply networks, barriers to stocking healthy foods and their changes following implementation of the new WIC packages. Non-supermarket retailers in five towns of Connecticut, USA (n 68 in 2009 and n 58 in 2010). Owners and managers of WIC-authorized and non-WIC convenience stores and non-chain grocery stores. Retailers identified customer demand as the primary factor in stocking decisions. They reported observing a significantly weaker demand for healthy foods compared with unhealthy foods, although it improved for certain foods with the new WIC subsidies. Less healthy foods were also perceived as more profitable. Supplier networks varied by product from convenient manufacturer delivery for salty snacks to self-supply for produce. WIC retailers were able to quickly adapt and supply healthy foods required under the new WIC programme guidelines. Retailers other than supermarkets currently perceive little demand for healthy foods, but new WIC subsidies have the power to change these perceptions. Supply barriers seem secondary in the limited offerings of healthy foods by stores and could be overcome when policy changes generate new demand for healthy foods.

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce

PubMed Central

Storm, Michael V.; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M.; Donofrio, Peter D.; Henderson, Victor W.; Kaminski, Henry J.; Stevens, James C.; Vidic, Thomas R.

2013-01-01

Objective: This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. Methods: A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. Results: The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Conclusions: In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future. PMID:23596071

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

PubMed

Dall, Timothy M; Storm, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M; Donofrio, Peter D; Henderson, Victor W; Kaminski, Henry J; Stevens, James C; Vidic, Thomas R

2013-07-30

This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

An analysis of needs for respiratory therapists in northeast Ohio and development of strategies to meet increased recruitment demands.

PubMed

Orens, Douglas K; Chatburn, Robert L; Volsko, Teresa A; Stoller, James K

2007-12-01

The 2005 American Association for Respiratory Care Human Resources Survey suggested that the national demand for respiratory therapists (RTs) exceeds the supply. At the Cleveland Clinic an expected hospital expansion of 350 beds by 2008 has increased the need for RT staff. This report describes a strategy by which we developed a plan, in concert with local RT colleges, to recruit RTs. Local RT managers were surveyed regarding demand for RTs. We developed a recruitment plan, based on discussions with RT program directors. The survey data and models estimated an annual mean of 33.4 new positions in northeast Ohio. Despite the fact that approximately 84 people graduated from northeast Ohio RT programs yearly in 2004 to 2007, the growth in demand for RTs exceeded the estimated supply. The main factor that caused RT schools to limit the supply of RTs was the paucity of clinical sites. Our analysis shows the schools could achieve a 40% increase in student output, and that if the Cleveland Clinic could essentially double its graduate hires, all RT staff needs in our hospital would be met by 2010. To assure a needed supply of RTs, this work shows the value of modeling supply and demand scenarios, coupled with surveying local RT leaders and fostering dialog between local RT leaders in hospitals and colleges. The product of this activity was a strategy for achieving recruitment goals while assuring that other regional demands for RTs are also met. We recommend this approach to colleagues facing similar challenges.

Better Demand Signal, Better Decisions? Evaluation of Big Data in a Licensed Remanufacturing Supply Chain with Environmental Risk Considerations.

PubMed

Niu, Baozhuang; Zou, Zongbao

2017-08-01

Big data ability helps obtain more accurate demand signal. However, is better demand signal always beneficial for the supply chain parties? To answer this question, we investigate a remanufacturing supply chain (RSC), where demand uncertainty is significant, and the value to reduce environmental risk is large. Specifically, we focus on a licensed RSC comprising an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a third-party remanufacturer (3PR). The latter pays a unit license fee to the former, and can be risk averse to the demand of remanufactured products. We show that the OEM and the risk-neutral 3PR always have incentives to improve their big data abilities to increase their profits. However, when the 3PR is risk averse, big data might hurt its profit: the value of big data is positive if its demand signal accuracy is sufficiently low. Interestingly, we find that while information sharing hurts the 3PR, it benefits the OEM as well as the supply chain. Thus, if costly information sharing is allowed, a win-win situation can be achieved. We also find that information sharing generates more valuation when the 3PR is risk averse than that when the 3PR is risk neutral. More importantly, we find that the 3PR's risk attitude and demand signal accuracy can significantly mitigate the negative environmental impact (measured by the amount of the waste): (1) the more risk neutral the 3PR is, the better the environment is; (2) the more accurate demand signal is, the better the environment is. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Electric power supply and demand for the contiguous United States, 1981 - 1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1981-07-01

The outlook for electric power supply and demand in the United States decade 1981 to 1990 is reviewed from the perspective of reliability and adequacy of service. Electric power supply adequacy as projected for the nine Regional Reliability Council areas of the contiguous United States is reported as well as interruptible load data reported by the Councils. cogeneration is discussed. Each of the 27 electric regions (sub-areas of the nine Council areas) in the contiguous US are studied. A glossary of terms is given. Appendices describe the Council structure, and include a copy of the ERA-411 Manual, which contains all the items to which the Councils were asked to respond. The utilities with included data, the Staff Report, Estimated Electric Demand and Supply for Summer 1981, Contiguous United States dated May 1981 are included.

Integrated modelling to assess long-term water supply capacity of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

PubMed

Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Borrell-Estupina, Valérie; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

2013-09-01

Assessing water supply capacity is crucial to meet stakeholders' needs, notably in the Mediterranean region. This region has been identified as a climate change hot spot, and as a region where water demand is continuously increasing due to population growth and the expansion of irrigated areas. The Hérault River catchment (2500 km(2), France) is a typical example and a negative trend in discharge has been observed since the 1960s. In this context, local stakeholders need first to understand the processes controlling the evolution of water resources and demands in the past to latter evaluate future water supply capacity and anticipate the tensions users could be confronted to in the future. A modelling framework is proposed at a 10-day time step to assess whether water resources have been able to meet water demands over the last 50 years. Water supply was evaluated using hydrological modelling and a dam management model. Water demand dynamics were estimated for the domestic and agricultural sectors. A water supply capacity index is computed to assess the extent and the frequency to which water demand has been satisfied at the sub-basin scale. Simulated runoff dynamics were in good agreement with observations over the calibration and validation periods. Domestic water demand has increased considerably since the 1980s and is characterized by a seasonal peak in summer. Agricultural demand has increased in the downstream sub-basins and decreased upstream where irrigated areas have decreased. As a result, although most water demands were satisfied between 1961 and 1980, irrigation requirements in summer have sometimes not been satisfied since the 1980s. This work is the first step toward evaluating possible future changes in water allocation capacity in the catchment, using future climate change, dam management and water use scenarios. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing distrust-induced risk with deposit in supply chain contract decisions.

PubMed

Han, Guanghua; Dong, Ming; Sun, Qi

2014-01-01

This paper studies the trust issue in a two-echelon supply chain information sharing process. In a supply chain, the retailer reports the forecasted demand to the supplier. Traditionally, the supplier's trust in the retailer's reported information is based on the retailer's reputation. However, this paper considers that trust is random and is also affected by the reputation and the demand gap. The supplier and retailer have been shown to have different evaluations regarding the degree of trust. Furthermore, distrust is inherently linked to perceived risk. To mitigate perceived risk, a two-stage decision process with an unpayback deposit contract is proposed. At the first stage, the supplier and the retailer negotiate the deposit contract. At the second stage, a Stackelberg game is used to determine the retailer's reported demand and the supplier's production quantity. We show that the deposits from the retailer's and supplier's perspectives are different. When the retailer's reported demand is equal to the supplier's forecasted demand, the retailer's evaluation of the deposit is more than that of supplier's. When the retailer's reported demand is equal to the retailer's forecasted demand, the deposit from the retailer's perspective is at the lowest level.

Managing Distrust-Induced Risk with Deposit in Supply Chain Contract Decisions

PubMed Central

Han, Guanghua; Dong, Ming; Sun, Qi

2014-01-01

This paper studies the trust issue in a two-echelon supply chain information sharing process. In a supply chain, the retailer reports the forecasted demand to the supplier. Traditionally, the supplier's trust in the retailer's reported information is based on the retailer's reputation. However, this paper considers that trust is random and is also affected by the reputation and the demand gap. The supplier and retailer have been shown to have different evaluations regarding the degree of trust. Furthermore, distrust is inherently linked to perceived risk. To mitigate perceived risk, a two-stage decision process with an unpayback deposit contract is proposed. At the first stage, the supplier and the retailer negotiate the deposit contract. At the second stage, a Stackelberg game is used to determine the retailer's reported demand and the supplier's production quantity. We show that the deposits from the retailer's and supplier's perspectives are different. When the retailer's reported demand is equal to the supplier's forecasted demand, the retailer's evaluation of the deposit is more than that of supplier's. When the retailer's reported demand is equal to the retailer's forecasted demand, the deposit from the retailer's perspective is at the lowest level. PMID:25054190

Growing ethanol sector drives corn supply chain shift for the last decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Schmitt, J.; Brauman, K. A.; Smith, T. M.; Suh, K.

2017-12-01

The US is the largest producer in the world, 89% of corn production uses in domestic demands in 2012. Carbon emission and irrigated water usage in the corn farming stage are hot-spot in the meat production sectors, comprise 37% of all US corn demand. The annual capacity of the ethanol sector increases from 6.5 billion gallons to 15.3 billion gallons for the last decade. The growth of corn demand in ethanol sector makes corn supply chain shift. Most of the ethanol plants located in the Mid-west where is the top 12 corn producing states. Therefore animal feeds take more supply from the other states. The purpose of this study is to estimate environmental impacts and water scarcity associated embedded corn by the temporal and spatial corn supply chain model based on a cost minimization. We use publicly available county-level data on corn production, feed demands, aggregative carbon emission and irrigated water usage in farming state, and a water depletion index as a metric for determining water scarcity. The water stressed counties produce 23.3% of US total corn production in 2012, and the irrigated corn is 14.2%. We simulated the corn supply chain using linear programming and developed the web-based visualization tools called FoodS3 (Food Systems Supply-chain Sustainability tool, http://foods3.org).

[Family practitioners in Switzerland by 2030: which roles for medical task delegation?].

PubMed

Jaccard Ruedin, Hélène; Seematter-Bagnoud, Laurence; Roth, Maik; Junod, Julien; Santos-Eggimann, Brigitte

2009-01-01

Due to population aging, by 2030 Switzerland may face a demand of 24 million family practitioner visits, a growth of 13 percent from the 2005 level. This result is based on the assumption that the per capita demand for doctor visits remains what was observed in 2005 by age groups and sex. During the same period, the total number of practitioners may decrease by 14 percent whereas the female proportion of such practitioners may double. These changes may cause a 33 percent decrease in the supply of physician visits to reach only 14 millions. The comparison of the demand and supply of family doctor visits reveals that by 2030, 10 million visits may be unmet which represents 40 percent of the demand. On the supply side, a full scale implementation of task delegation may partially reduce that gap (minus 2 millions). On the demand side, improved health status may bring in a larger decrease in the needs for visits (minus 4 million).

A population-based longitudinal study on the implication of demographic changes on blood donation and transfusion demand.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Schönborn, Linda; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Stüpmann, Kerstin; Greger, Nico; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2017-06-13

Transfusion safety includes the risk of transmission of pathogens, appropriate transfusion thresholds, and sufficient blood supply. All industrialized countries experience major ongoing demographic changes resulting from low birth rates and aging of the baby boom generation. Little evidence exists about whether future blood supply and demand correlate with these demographic changes. The ≥50% decline in birth rate in the eastern part of Germany after 1990 facilitates systematic study of the effects of pronounced demographic changes on blood donation and demand. In this prospective, 10-year longitudinal study, we enrolled all whole blood donors and all patients receiving red blood cell transfusions in the state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared projections made in 2005 based on the projected demographic changes with: (1) number and age distribution of blood donors and transfusion recipients in 2015 and (2) blood demand within specific age and patient groups. Blood donation rates closely followed the demographic changes, showing a decrease of -18% (vs projected -23%). In contrast, 2015 transfusion rates were -21.3% lower than projected. We conclude that although changes in demography are highly predictive for the blood supply, transfusion demand is strongly influenced by changes in medical practice. Given ongoing pronounced demographic change, regular monitoring of the donor/recipient age distributions and associated impact on blood demand/supply relationships is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction.

National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, poverty and prices in rural India.

PubMed

Gaiha, Raghav; Kulkarni, Vani S; Pandey, Manoj K; Imai, Katsushi S

2010-01-01

The objective of this analysis is mainly to construct an intuitive measure of the performance of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) in India. The focus is on divergence between demand and supply at the district level. Some related issues addressed are: (i) whether the gap between demand and supply responds to poverty; and (ii) whether recent hikes in NREGS wages are inflationary. Our analysis confirms responsiveness of the positive gap between demand and supply to poverty. Also, apprehensions expressed about the inflationary potential of recent hikes in NREGS wages have been confirmed. More importantly, higher NREGS wages are likely to undermine self-selection of the poor in it.

Who has a clue to preventing the flu? Unravelling supply and demand effects on the take-up of influenza vaccinations.

PubMed

Maurer, Jürgen

2009-05-01

Influenza is a serious disease, especially for older people, and incomplete vaccination take-up poses a major public health challenge. On both the side of physicians and patients, there could be promising channels for increasing immunization rates, but no attempt has yet been made to empirically unravel their respective influences. Using exclusion restrictions implied by an economic model of physician-patient interactions, our study quantifies the particular effects of supply and demand on influenza immunization. On the supply side, our estimates highlight the importance of physician agency and physician quality, while a patient's education and health behaviors are key demand side factors.

Demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, C. J.; Tang, K.; Kelley, J. H.; Berger, B. J.

1979-01-01

Projections are made for the demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA. Industrial sectors considered are petroleum refining, ammonia synthesis, methanol production, isocyanate manufacture, edible oil processing, coal liquefaction, fuel cell electricity generation, and direct iron reduction. Presently, almost all the hydrogen required is produced by reforming of natural gas or petroleum fractions. Specific needs and emphases are recommended for future research and development to produce hydrogen from other sources to meet the requirements of these industrial sectors. The data and the recommendations summarized in this paper are based on the Workshop 'Supply and Demand of Hydrogen as Chemical Feedstock' held at the University of Houston on December 12-14, 1977.

An approach to market analysis for lighter than air transportation of freight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, P. O.; Marcus, H. S.; Pollock, J. H.

1975-01-01

An approach is presented to marketing analysis for lighter than air vehicles in a commercial freight market. After a discussion of key characteristics of supply and demand factors, a three-phase approach to marketing analysis is described. The existing transportation systems are quantitatively defined and possible roles for lighter than air vehicles within this framework are postulated. The marketing analysis views the situation from the perspective of both the shipper and the carrier. A demand for freight service is assumed and the resulting supply characteristics are determined. Then, these supply characteristics are used to establish the demand for competing modes. The process is then iterated to arrive at the market solution.

Pricing, manufacturing and inventory policies for raw material in a three-level supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allah Taleizadeh, Ata; Noori-daryan, Mahsa

2016-03-01

We studied a decentralised three-layer supply chain including a supplier, a producer and some retailers. All the retailers order their demands to the producer and the producer order his demands to the supplier. We assumed that the demand is price sensitive and shortage is not permitted. The goal of the paper is to optimise the total cost of the supply chain network by coordinating decision-making policy using Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium. The decision variables of our model are the supplier's price, the producer's price and the number of shipments received by the supplier and producer, respectively. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed model numerical examples are presented.

Requirements of supply chain management in differentiating European pork chains.

PubMed

Trienekens, Jacques; Wognum, Nel

2013-11-01

This paper summarizes results obtained by research into pork chain management in the EU Integrated Project Q-Porkchains. Changing demands for intrinsic and extrinsic quality attributes of pork products impact the way supply chain management should be organized from the farmer down to the consumer. The paper shows the importance of Quality Management Systems for integrating supply chains and enhancing consumer confidence. The paper also presents innovations in information system integration for aligning information exchange in the supply chain and logistics concepts based on innovative measurement technologies at the slaughterhouse stage. In the final section research challenges towards sustainable pork supply chains satisfying current consumer demands are presented. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

World Economic Growth and Oil: a Producers' Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shihab-Eldin, Adnan

2014-07-01

This paper examines the following assertions: * A high share of oil price in GDP limits economic growth, * Oil Price shocks trigger recession, * These effects will be escalated by peaked oil supply and rising developing world demand and together with increasing contributions to climate change will result in a global emergency. The role of energy in societal development and economic growth, from primitive man through the industrial revolution and the oil age to the present and the evolution of energy intensity are described. The principle role of oil as a transport fuel and the possibilities of alternatives are examined. It is concluded that oil dependence will continue for the foreseeable future. The history of the industry, market behavior and its economic effects are presented to establish precedent and the assertions are then examined. It is shown that rising oil prices are an unavoidable consequence of economic growth, that they have stimulated efficient minimum functional use and made more difficult conventional and unconventional sources economic. It is then argued that potentially these additional resources eliminate the possibility of supply shortage and that diversification of supply lessens the possibility of shock, together rendering a global emergency less likely than could have been previously envisaged.

Material and Energy Requirement for Rare Earth Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talens Peiró, Laura; Villalba Méndez, Gara

2013-10-01

The use of rare earth metals (REMs) for new applications in renewable and communication technologies has increased concern about future supply as well as environmental burdens associated with the extraction, use, and disposal (losses) of these metals. Although there are several reports describing and quantifying the production and use of REM, there is still a lack of quantitative data about the material and energy requirements for their extraction and refining. Such information remains difficult to acquire as China is still supplying over 95% of the world REM supply. This article attempts to estimate the material and energy requirements for the production of REM based on the theoretical chemical reactions and thermodynamics. The results show the material and energy requirement varies greatly depending on the type of mineral ore, production facility, and beneficiation process selected. They also show that the greatest loss occurs during mining (25-50%) and beneficiation (10-30%) of RE minerals. We hope that the material and energy balances presented in this article will be of use in life cycle analysis, resource accounting, and other industrial ecology tools used to quantify the environmental consequences of meeting REM demand for new technology products.

Glucose consumption of inflammatory cells masks metabolic deficits in the brain

PubMed Central

Backes, Heiko; Walberer, Maureen; Ladwig, Anne; Rueger, Maria A.; Neumaier, Bernd; Endepols, Heike; Hoehn, Mathias; Fink, Gereon R.; Schroeter, Michael; Graf, Rudolf

2016-01-01

Inflammatory cells such as microglia need energy to exert their functions and to maintain their cellular integrity and membrane potential. Subsequent to cerebral ischemia, inflammatory cells infiltrate tissue with limited blood flow where neurons and astrocytes died due to insufficient supply with oxygen and glucose. Using dual tracer positron emission tomography (PET), we found that concomitant with the presence of inflammatory cells, transport and consumption of glucose increased up to normal levels but returned to pathological levels as soon as inflammatory cells disappeared. Thus, inflammatory cells established sufficient glucose supply to satisfy their energy demands even in regions with insufficient supply for neurons and astrocytes to survive. Our data suggest that neurons and astrocytes died from oxygen deficiency and inflammatory cells metabolized glucose non-oxidatively in regions with residual availability. As a consequence, glucose metabolism of inflammatory cells can mask metabolic deficits in neurodegenerative diseases. We further found that the PET tracer did not bind to inflammatory cells in severely hypoperfused regions and thus only a part of the inflammation was detected. We conclude that glucose consumption of inflammatory cells should be taken into account when analyzing disease-related alterations of local cerebral metabolism. PMID:26747749

Many-objective optimization and visual analytics reveal key trade-offs for London's water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matrosov, Evgenii S.; Huskova, Ivana; Kasprzyk, Joseph R.; Harou, Julien J.; Lambert, Chris; Reed, Patrick M.

2015-12-01

In this study, we link a water resource management simulator to multi-objective search to reveal the key trade-offs inherent in planning a real-world water resource system. We consider new supplies and demand management (conservation) options while seeking to elucidate the trade-offs between the best portfolios of schemes to satisfy projected water demands. Alternative system designs are evaluated using performance measures that minimize capital and operating costs and energy use while maximizing resilience, engineering and environmental metrics, subject to supply reliability constraints. Our analysis shows many-objective evolutionary optimization coupled with state-of-the art visual analytics can help planners discover more diverse water supply system designs and better understand their inherent trade-offs. The approach is used to explore future water supply options for the Thames water resource system (including London's water supply). New supply options include a new reservoir, water transfers, artificial recharge, wastewater reuse and brackish groundwater desalination. Demand management options include leakage reduction, compulsory metering and seasonal tariffs. The Thames system's Pareto approximate portfolios cluster into distinct groups of water supply options; for example implementing a pipe refurbishment program leads to higher capital costs but greater reliability. This study highlights that traditional least-cost reliability constrained design of water supply systems masks asset combinations whose benefits only become apparent when more planning objectives are considered.

Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

2014-12-01

The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

Supply determines demand: influence of partner quality and quantity on the interactions between bats and pitcher plants.

PubMed

Schöner, Caroline R; Schöner, Michael G; Kerth, Gerald; Grafe, T Ulmar

2013-09-01

Interspecific relationships such as mutualism and parasitism are major drivers of biodiversity. Because such interactions often comprise more than two species, ecological studies increasingly focus on complex multispecies systems. However, the spatial heterogeneity of multi-species interactions is often poorly understood. Here, we investigate the unusual interaction of a bat (Kerivoula hardwickii hardwickii) and two pitcher plant species (Nepenthes hemsleyana and N. bicalcarata) whose pitchers serve as roost for bats. Nepenthes hemsleyana offers roosts of higher quality, indicated by a more stable microclimate compared to N. bicalcarata but occurs at lower abundance and is less common than the latter. Whereas N. hemsleyana benefits from the roosting bats by gaining nitrogen from their feces, the bats' interaction with N. bicalcarata seems to be commensal or even parasitic. Bats stayed longer in roosts of higher quality provided by N. hemsleyana and preferred them to pitchers of N. bicalcarata in a disturbance experiment. Moreover, bats roosting only in pitchers of N. hemsleyana had a higher body condition and were less infested with parasites compared to bats roosting in pitchers of N. bicalcarata. Our study shows how the local supply of roosts with different qualities affects the behavior and status of their inhabitants and-as a consequence-how the demand of the inhabitants can influence evolutionary adaptations of the roost providing species.

Volatility and Uncertainty in Environmental Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maniloff, Peter Taylor

Environmental policy is increasingly implemented via market mechanisms. While this is in many ways a great success for the economics profession, a number of questions remain. In this dissertation, I empirically explore the question of what will happen as environmental outcomes are coupled to potentially volatile market phenomena, whether policies can insulate environmental outcomes and market shocks, and policymakers should act to mitigate such volatility. I use a variety of empirical methods including reduced form and structural econometrics as well as theoretical models to consider a variety of policy, market, and institutional contexts. The effectiveness of market interventions depends on the context and on the policy mechanism. In particular, energy markets are characterized by low demand elasticities and kinked supply curves which are very flat below a capacity constraint (elastic) and very steep above it (inelastic). This means that a quantity-based policy that acts on demand, such as releasing additional pollution emission allowances from a reserved fund would be an effective way to constrain price shocks in a cap-and-trade system. However, a quantity-based policy that lowers the need for inframarginal supply, such as using ethanol as an oil product substitute to mitigate oil shocks, would be ineffective. Similarly, the benefits of such interventions depends on the macroeconomic impacts of price shocks from the sector. Relatedly, I show that a liability rule designed to reduce risk from low-probability, high-consequence oil spills have very low compliance costs.

Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce.

PubMed

Mason, Julie L; Johnston, Elizabeth; Berndt, Sam; Segal, Katie; Lei, Ming; Wiest, Jonathan S

2016-08-01

The United States has experienced an unsustainable increase of the biomedical research workforce over the past 3 decades. This expansion has led to a myriad of consequences, including an imbalance in the number of researchers and available tenure-track faculty positions, extended postdoctoral training periods, increasing age of investigators at first U.S. National Institutes of Health R01 grant, and exodus of talented individuals seeking careers beyond traditional academe. Without accurate data on the biomedical research labor market, challenges will remain in resolving these problems and in advising trainees of viable career options and the skills necessary to be productive in their careers. We analyzed workforce trends, integrating both traditional labor market information and real-time job data. We generated a profile of the current biomedical research workforce, performed labor gap analyses of occupations in the workforce at regional and national levels, and assessed skill transferability between core and complementary occupations. We conclude that although supply into the workforce and the number of job postings for occupations within that workforce have grown over the past decade, supply continues to outstrip demand. Moreover, we identify practical skill sets from real-time job postings to optimally equip trainees for an array of careers to effectively meet future workforce demand.-Mason, J. L., Johnston, E., Berndt, S., Segal, K., Lei, M., Wiest, J. S. Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce. © FASEB.

Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce

PubMed Central

Mason, Julie L.; Johnston, Elizabeth; Berndt, Sam; Segal, Katie; Lei, Ming; Wiest, Jonathan S.

2016-01-01

The United States has experienced an unsustainable increase of the biomedical research workforce over the past 3 decades. This expansion has led to a myriad of consequences, including an imbalance in the number of researchers and available tenure-track faculty positions, extended postdoctoral training periods, increasing age of investigators at first U.S. National Institutes of Health R01 grant, and exodus of talented individuals seeking careers beyond traditional academe. Without accurate data on the biomedical research labor market, challenges will remain in resolving these problems and in advising trainees of viable career options and the skills necessary to be productive in their careers. We analyzed workforce trends, integrating both traditional labor market information and real-time job data. We generated a profile of the current biomedical research workforce, performed labor gap analyses of occupations in the workforce at regional and national levels, and assessed skill transferability between core and complementary occupations. We conclude that although supply into the workforce and the number of job postings for occupations within that workforce have grown over the past decade, supply continues to outstrip demand. Moreover, we identify practical skill sets from real-time job postings to optimally equip trainees for an array of careers to effectively meet future workforce demand.—Mason, J. L., Johnston, E., Berndt, S., Segal, K., Lei, M., Wiest, J. S. Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce. PMID:27075242

Wood Residue Distribution Simulator (WORDS)

Treesearch

Douglas A. Eza; James W. McMinn; Peter E. Dress

1984-01-01

Successful development of woody biomass for energy will depend on the distribution of local supply and demand within subregions, rather than on the total inventory of residues. The Wood Residue Distribution Simulator (WORDS) attempts to find a least-cost allocation of residues from local sources of supply to local sources of demand, given the cost of the materials,...

Oklahoma Study of Educator Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Levin, Jesse

2015-01-01

In June 2014, the Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education (OSRHE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct a study to better understand both historical and future predicted trends of educator supply and demand across Oklahoma. OSRHE commissioned the study in partnership with the Oklahoma Commission for Teacher Preparation…

The Undereducated American

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnevale, Anthony P.; Rose, Stephen J.

2011-01-01

The United States has been underproducing college-going workers since 1980. Supply has failed to keep pace with growing demand, and as a result, income inequality has grown precipitously. From 1915 to 1980, supply grew in tandem with demand. But, starting in 1990, the share of college-educated young people in the workforce rose very slowly. If the…

Assessing the Supply and Demand for Scientists and Technologists in Europe. IES Report 377.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearson, R.; Jagger, N.; Connor, H.; Perryman, S.

Available evidence on the supply of and demand for professional scientists and technologists (S&Ts) in the European Union (EU) was reviewed. The main data sources were as follows: approximately 450 reference documents; national and international governments, training and employer bodies, and key international organizations; more than 100…

The Undereducated American. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnavale, Anthony P.; Rose, Stephen J.

2011-01-01

The United States has been underproducing college-going workers since 1980. Supply has failed to keep pace with growing demand, and as a result, income inequality has grown precipitously. From 1915 to 1980, supply grew in tandem with demand. But, starting in 1990, the share of college-educated young people in the workforce rose very slowly. If the…

Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Jesse; Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Atchison, Drew; Lee, Katelyn; Vontsolos, Emily

2015-01-01

In April 2015, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (ESE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to develop a comprehensive set of 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand in order to inform planning for future workforce needs. This included state-level projections both in the aggregate, as well…

Educator Supply and Demand in Washington State. 2004 Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lashway, Larry; Maloney, Rick; Hathaway, Randy; Bryant, B. J.

2005-01-01

This report describes the findings of the third Educator Supply and Demand Research study in the State of Washington. The intent of these Washington studies is to provide data to inform and shape decisions and activities in the following ways: (1) Provide useful information for educational policymakers, including the legislature, the State Board…

Teacher Supply and Demand: Issues in Northern Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kitchenham, Andrew; Chasteauneuf, Colin

2010-01-01

This two-year study (2007-2009), which examined teacher supply and demand issues in northern Canada--Fort Nelson School District (BC), the Fort Vermilion School Division (AB), the Yukon Department of Education (YK), and the Yellowknife School District (NWT)--comprised three research objectives: (a) to ascertain in which subject areas acute and…

Using Empirical Point Elasticities To Teach Tax Incidence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swinton, John R.; Thomas, Christopher R.

2001-01-01

Advocates use of point elasticities rather than arc elasticities or slopes of demand and supply curves to teach students about the economic impacts of excise taxes. Uses several available estimates of point elasticities of demand and supply of sugar to calculate the economic impacts of a penny-per-pound tax on sugar. (RLH)

State Aid and Student Performance: A Supply-Demand Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinnucan, Henry W.; Zheng, Yuqing; Brehmer, Gerald

2006-01-01

Using a supply-demand framework, a six-equation model is specified to generate hypotheses about the relationship between state aid and student performance. Theory predicts that an increase in state or federal aid provides an incentive to decrease local funding, but that the disincentive associated with increased state aid is moderated when federal…

Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clotfelter, Charles T., Ed.; Rothschild, Michael, Ed.

This collection of eight papers focuses on empirical research and economic analysis related to the economics of supply and demand in higher education. They include: (1) "The University in the Marketplace: Some Insights and Some Puzzles" (Michael Rothschild and Lawrence J. White); (2) "Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to…

Research on green supply chain coordination strategy for uncertain market demand.

PubMed

Cao, Jian; Chen, Yangyang; Lu, Bo; Tong, Chenlu; Zhou, Gengui

2015-03-01

Based on the status that the green market began to develop (e.g. pharmaceutical industry) in Mainland China, the paper mainly discusses how members of the green supply chain (GSC) cooperate effectively in the process of the supply chain operations. For the uncertainties existing in the market demand of the green products, the GSC coordination strategy is put forward based on the Stackelberg game that the manufacturer is the leader and distributors are the followers. The relationship between the proposed coordination strategy and several factors including the distributor's amount, the distributor's risk aversion and the uncertainties of market demand are analyzed. It indicates that, when there are uncertainties existing in the market demand of the green product, the revenue of each enterprise, the overall revenue and the customer's welfare all decrease; while the increase in the number of distributors and low risk aversion of them are beneficial to the entire GSC and the customer. The conclusions have good guidance for the operational decisions of the green supply chain when the green market is in its initial formation.

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Health consumers and stem cell therapy innovation: markets, models and regulation.

PubMed

Salter, Brian; Zhou, Yinhua; Datta, Saheli

2014-05-01

Global health consumer demand for stem cell therapies is vibrant, but the supply of treatments from the conventional science-based model of innovation is small and unlikely to increase in the near future. At the same time, several models of medical innovation have emerged that can respond to the demand, often employing a transnational value chain to deliver the product. Much of the commentary has approached the issue from a supply side perspective, demonstrating the extent to which national and transnational regulation fails to impose what are regarded as appropriate standards on the 'illicit' supply of stem cell therapies characterized by little data and poor outcomes. By contrast, this article presents a political economic analysis with a strong demand side perspective, arguing that the problem of what is termed 'stem cell tourism' is embedded in the demand-supply relationship of the health consumer market and its engagement with different types of stem cell therapy innovation. To be meaningful, discussions of regulation must recognize that analysis or risk being sidelined by a market, which ignores their often wishful thinking.

Case study of supply induced demand: the case of provision of imaging scans (computed tomography and magnetic resonance) at Unimed-Manaus.

PubMed

Andrade, Edson de Oliveira; Andrade, Elizabeth Nogueira de; Gallo, José Hiran

2011-01-01

To present the experience of a health plan operator (Unimed-Manaus) in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, with the accreditation of imaging services and the demand induced by the supply of new services (Roemer's Law). This is a retrospective work studying a time series covering the period from January 1998 to June 2004, in which the computed tomography and the magnetic resonance imaging services were implemented as part of the services offered by that health plan operator. Statistical analysis consisted of a descriptive and an inferential part, with the latter using a mean parametric test (Student T-test and ANOVA) and the Pearson correlation test. A 5% alpha and a 95% confidence interval were adopted. At Unimed-Manaus, the supply of new imaging services, by itself, was identified as capable of generating an increased service demand, thus characterizing the phenomenon described by Roemer. The results underscore the need to be aware of the fact that the supply of new health services could bring about their increased use without a real demand.

The impact of predicted demand on energy production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El kafazi, I.; Bannari, R.; Aboutafail, My. O.

2018-05-01

Energy is crucial for human life, a secure and accessible supply of power is essential for the sustainability of societies. Economic development and demographic progression increase energy demand, prompting countries to conduct research and studies on energy demand and production. Although, increasing in energy demand in the future requires a correct determination of the amount of energy supplied. Our article studies the impact of demand on energy production to find the relationship between the two latter and managing properly the production between the different energy sources. Historical data of demand and energy production since 2000 are used. The data are processed by the regression model to study the impact of demand on production. The obtained results indicate that demand has a positive and significant impact on production (high impact). Production is also increasing but at a slower pace. In this work, Morocco is considered as a case study.

Improving productivity and profitability of a bioanalytical business through sales and operation planning.

PubMed

Islam, Rafiqul

2013-07-01

Today's bioanalytical CROs face increasing global competition, highly variable demand, high fixed costs, pricing pressure, and increasing demand for quality and speed. Most bioanalytical laboratories have responded to these challenges by implementing automation and by implementing process improvement methodologies (e.g., Six Sigma). These solutions have not resulted in a significant improvement in productivity and profitability since none of them are able to predict the upturn or downturn in demand. High volatility of demand causes long lead times and high costs during peak demand and poor productivity during trough demand. Most bioanalytical laboratories lack the tools to align supply efficiently to meet changing demand. In this paper, sales and operation planning (S&OP) has been investigated as a tool to balance supply and demand. The S&OP process, when executed effectively, can be the single greatest determinant of profitability for a bioanalytical business.

Examining sufficiency and equity in the geographic distribution of physicians in Japan: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hara, Koji; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2017-03-14

The objective of this study was to longitudinally examine the geographic distribution of physicians in Japan with adjustment for healthcare demand according to changes in population age structure. We examined trends in the number of physicians per 100 000 population in Japan's secondary medical areas (SMAs) from 2000 to 2014. Healthcare demand was adjusted using health expenditure per capita. Trends in the Gini coefficient and the number of SMAs with a low physician supply were analysed. A subgroup analysis was also conducted where SMAs were divided into 4 groups according to urban-rural classification and initial physician supply. The time-based changes in the Gini coefficient and the number of SMAs with a low physician supply indicated that the equity in physician distribution had worsened throughout the study period. The number of physicians per 100 000 population had seemingly increased in all groups, with increases of 22.9% and 34.5% in urban groups with higher and lower initial physician supply, respectively. However, after adjusting healthcare demand, physician supply decreased by 1.3% in the former group and increased by 3.5% in the latter group. Decreases were also observed in the rural groups, where the number of physicians decreased by 4.4% in the group with a higher initial physician supply and 7.6% in the group with a lower initial physician supply. Although the total number of physicians increased in Japan, demand-adjusted physician supply decreased in recent years in all areas except for urban areas with a lower initial physician supply. In addition, the equity of physician distribution had consistently deteriorated since 2000. The results indicate that failing to adjust healthcare demand will produce misleading results, and that there is a need for major reform of Japan's healthcare system to improve physician distribution. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Failure Mechanisms of Ni-H2 and Li-Ion Batteries Under Hypervelocity Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, J. E.; Lyons, F.; Christiansen, E. L.; Lear, D. M.

2017-01-01

Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries have yielded significant performance advantages for many industries, including the aerospace industry, and have been selected to replace nickel hydrogen (Ni-H2) batteries for the International Space Station (ISS) program to meet the energy storage demands. As the ISS uses its vast solar arrays to generate its power, the solar arrays meet their sunlit power demands and supply excess power to battery packs for power delivery on the sun obscured phase of the approximate 90 minute low Earth orbit. These large battery packs are located on the exterior of the ISS, and as such, the battery packs are exposed to external environment threats like naturally occurring meteoroids and artificial orbital debris (MMOD). While the risks from these solid particle environments has been known and addressed to an acceptable risk of failure through shield design, it is not possible to completely eliminate the risk of loss of these assets on orbit due to MMOD, and as such, failure consequences to the ISS have been considered.

Patient inducement, provider priorities, and resource allocation in public mental health systems.

PubMed

Sinaiko, Anna D; McGuire, Thomas G

2006-12-01

Public mental health systems are increasingly facing demands from the criminal justice system and social services agencies to provide services and support in cases in which mental illness contributes to crime, homelessness, or poverty. In this article we analyze how policies from outside public mental health systems affect resource allocation within these systems, using examples from criminal justice. These policies use two types of mechanisms: inducing patients to consume treatment (by offering rewards or imposing penalties) and inducing clinicians to provide treatment (by creating priorities). We propose a classification of these social policies based on whether they affect demand through rewards or penalties or supply through priorities. We then relate the classification to data on patients treated in public systems to evaluate the current prevalence and potential for growth in these outside demands. These inducements impose a set of nonobvious costs on other patients who are not targeted by the policies. Furthermore, they create incentives for both patients and providers to modify their behavior in order to take advantage of rewards, avoid penalties, or better compete for resources with prioritized patients. We consider some policy implications for avoiding unintended consequences of these policies.

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

DOE PAGES

Basore, Paul A.; Cole, Wesley J.

2018-02-22

We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply-focused model based on supply-chain growth constraints and a demand-focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in whichmore » low-cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply-focused and demand-focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GWdc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GWdc in 2040. With low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GWdc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GWdc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.« less

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basore, Paul A.; Cole, Wesley J.

We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply-focused model based on supply-chain growth constraints and a demand-focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in whichmore » low-cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply-focused and demand-focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GWdc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GWdc in 2040. With low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GWdc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GWdc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.« less

Supply and demand of some critical metals and present status of their recycling in WEEE.

PubMed

Zhang, Shengen; Ding, Yunji; Liu, Bo; Chang, Chein-Chi

2017-07-01

New development and technological innovations make electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) more functional by using an increasing number of metals, particularly the critical metals (e.g. rare and precious metals) with specialized properties. As millions of people in emerging economies adopt a modern lifestyle, the demand for critical metals is soaring. However, the increasing demand causes the crisis of their supply because of their simple deficiency in the Earth's crust or geopolitical constraints which might create political issues for their supply. This paper focuses on the sustainable supply of typical critical metals (indium, rare earth elements (REEs), lithium, cobalt and precious metals) through recycling waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). To illuminate this issue, the production, consumption, expected future demand, current recycling situation of critical metals, WEEE management and their recycling have been reviewed. We find that the demand of indium, REEs, lithium and cobalt in EEE will continuously increasing, while precious metals are decreasing because of new substitutions with less or even without precious metals. Although the generation of WEEE in 2014 was about 41.9 million tons (Mt), just about 15% (6.5 Mt) was treated environmentally. The inefficient collection of WEEE is the main obstacle to relieving the supply risk of critical metals. Furthermore, due to the widespread use in low concentrations, such as indium, their recycling is not just technological problem, but economic feasibility is. Finally, relevant recommendations are point out to address these issues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Mathematical Model of Demand-Supply Dynamics with Collectability and Saturation Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y. Charles; Yang, Hong

We introduce a mathematical model on the dynamics of demand and supply incorporating collectability and saturation factors. Our analysis shows that when the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, there is chaos in the demand-supply dynamics. Our numerical simulation shows that such a chaos is not an attractor (i.e. dynamics is not approaching the chaos), instead a periodic attractor (of period-3 under the Poincaré period map) exists near the chaos, and coexists with another periodic attractor (of period-1 under the Poincaré period map) near the market equilibrium. Outside the basins of attraction of the two periodic attractors, the dynamics approaches infinity indicating market irrational exuberance or flash crash. The period-3 attractor represents the product’s market cycle of growth and recession, while period-1 attractor near the market equilibrium represents the regular fluctuation of the product’s market. Thus our model captures more market phenomena besides Marshall’s market equilibrium. When the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, a three leaf danger zone exists where the basins of attraction of all attractors intertwine and fractal basin boundaries are formed. Small perturbations in the danger zone can lead to very different attractors. That is, small perturbations in the danger zone can cause the market to experience oscillation near market equilibrium, large growth and recession cycle, and irrational exuberance or flash crash.

Supply chain model with price- and trade credit-sensitive demand under two-level permissible delay in payments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giri, B. C.; Maiti, T.

2013-05-01

This article develops a single-manufacturer and single-retailer supply chain model under two-level permissible delay in payments when the manufacturer follows a lot-for-lot policy in response to the retailer's demand. The manufacturer offers a trade credit period to the retailer with the contract that the retailer must share a fraction of the profit earned during the trade credit period. On the other hand, the retailer provides his customer a partial trade credit which is less than that of the manufacturer. The demand at the retailer is assumed to be dependent on the selling price and the trade credit period offered to the customers. The average net profit of the supply chain is derived and an algorithm for finding the optimal solution is developed. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the coordination policy of the supply chain and examine the sensitivity of key model-parameters.

Joint Egypt/United States report on Egypt/United States cooperative energy assessment. Volume 1 of 5 Vols. Executive summary, main report and appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-04-01

The International Energy Assessment Program between Egypt and the U.S. was formulated from mid-March to mid-July, 1978. The assessment identified energy demand and supply options for Egypt that are consistent with its indigenous energy resources; assessed Egypt's ability to effectively use those options; and identified measures by which Egypt's energy-planning activities could be improved. The assessment addressed all known and potential energy supply options (oil, gas, coal, oil shale, hydroelectric, nuclear power, geothermal, solar, wind, and biomass). Using the Reference Energy System, two future energy supply/demand balances are constructed (for 1985 and the year 2000) and these are compared withmore » a historical (1975) supply/demand balance. The feasibility of each of the options is established in terms of the availability of the required resources and of the processing, conversion, transport, and utilization technology.« less

Modeling Integrated Water-User Decisions with Intermittent Supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, J. R.; Rosenberg, D.

2006-12-01

We present an economic-engineering method to estimate urban water use demands with intermittent water supplies. A two-stage, probabilistic optimization formulation includes a wide variety of water supply enhancement and conservation actions that individual households can adopt to meet multiple water quality uses with uncertain water availability. We embed the optimization in Monte-Carlo simulations to show aggregate effects at a utility (citywide) scale for a population of user conditions and decisions. Parametric analysis provides derivations of supply curves to subsidize conservation, demand responses to alternative pricing, and customer willingness-to-pay to avoid shortages. Results show a good empirical fit for the average and distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Additional outputs give likely market penetration rates for household conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies required to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, market, and finance conservation programs and interpret a demand curve with block pricing.

Alcohol Craving and Demand Mediate the Relation between Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms and Alcohol-Related Consequences

PubMed Central

Tripp, Jessica C.; Meshesha, Lidia Z.; Teeters, Jenni B.; Pickover, Alison; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E.; Murphy, James G.

2015-01-01

Objective Posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms are associated with alcohol-related consequences, but there is a need to understand mediators that may help explain the reasons for this relationship. Individuals with PTS may experience elevated craving and alcohol reward value (demand), which may contribute to risk for alcohol-related consequences. Method We examined relationships between PTS status, craving, alcohol demand, and alcohol-related consequences in PTS-positive (n = 64) and PTS-negative (n = 200) college students (M age = 21.7; 77% women; 54% Caucasian; 34% African American) who endorsed past-month alcohol use. We tested craving and alcohol demand as mediators of the relation between PTS status and alcohol problems. Results Craving (B = .04, SE = .02, 95% CI = .01 – .10), demand intensity (B = .05, SE = .03, 95% CI = .0009 – .17), and demand elasticity (B = .05, SE = .03, 95% CI = .006 – .03) significantly mediated the association between PTS symptoms and alcohol problems. Craving remained a significant mediator in a multiple mediators model (B = .08, SE = .04, 95% CI = .03 – .19). Conclusions Craving and alcohol demand may partially explain the relation between PTS status and alcohol-related consequences. Craving may be especially salient for individuals with PTS symptoms, as it may lead to more severe alcohol-related consequences even in the absence of elevated alcohol consumption. PMID:26375513

Manpower for the coal mining industry: an assessment of adequacy through the year 2000. Volume II. Technical approach. Final technical report. [USA; forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendis, M.S.; Rosenberg, J.I.; Medville, D.M.

1980-03-01

This report presents a summary of the analytical approach taken and the conclusions reached in an assessment of the supply and demand for manpower in the coal mining industry through the year 2000. A hybrid system dynamics/econometric model of the coal mining industry was developed which incorporates relationships between technological change, labor productivity, production costs, wages, graduation rates, and other key variables in estimating imbalances between labor supply and demand. Study results indicate that while the supply of production workers is expected to be sufficient under most future demand scenarios, periodic shortages of experienced workers, especially in the Northern Greatmore » Plains can be expected. Other study findings are that the supply of mining engineers will be sufficient under all but the highest coal demand scenario, a shortage of faculty will affect the supply of mining engineers in the near-term and the employment of mining technicians is expected to exhibit the largest increase in any labor category studied. In this volume the nature of the coal mining manpower problem is discussed, a detailed description of that analysis conducted and the sources of data used is provided, and the findings of the study are presented.« less

Towards Universal Design Hotels in Denmark.

PubMed

Grangaard, Sidse

2016-01-01

Based on the research project 'Accessible Hotel Rooms' that studies the balance between the experience of supply and demand regarding accessibility features in Danish hotel rooms, this paper demonstrates factors having an influence on Universal Design hotels in Denmark. The research project was financed by the Danish Transport and Construction Agency. Different notions in the hotel sector of the current supply and demand for Universal Design hotel rooms are identified, as well as future demand. Despite supplying accessible rooms, some hotels do not advertise their accessibility features on their website. There exists an attitude in the hotel sector that functions as a barrier for Universal Design: if there are enough guests, for example business travellers, then why market the hotel on Universal Design? The paper points out the coherence between the understanding of the users and the view of demand. Another important factor is Corporate Social Responsibility, which can be regarded as a strategy or platform towards Universal Design hotels.

Joint Peru/United States report on Peru/United States cooperative energy assessment. Volume 1. Executive summary, main report and appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-08-01

In 1978, the US and Peru conducted a comprehensive assessment of Peru's energy resources, needs, and uses and developed several alternative energy strategies that utilize the available resources to meet their energy requirements. This Volume I reports the findings of the assessment and contains the executive summary, the main report, and five appendices of information that support the integrated energy supply and demand analysis. The following chapters are included: The Energy Situation in Peru (economic context and background, energy resources and production, energy consumption patterns); Reference Supply and Demand Projection (approach, procedures, and assumptions; economic projections; energy demand and supplymore » projections; supply/demand integration; uncertainties); and The Development of Strategies and Options (the analysis of options; strategies; increased use of renewables, hydropower, coal; increased energy efficiency; and financial analysis of strategies).« less

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

DOE PAGES

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; ...

2017-07-24

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the regionmore » could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.« less

[Supply and demand in the meetings between mental health professionals and family members of people with mental disorders].

PubMed

Constantinidis, Teresinha Cid; de Andrade, Angela Nobre

2015-02-01

This paper is a development of a doctoral thesis presented at the Federal University of Espírito Santo. It seeks to analyze the elucidation of needs, development of supply and demand in the provision of care and the relationship between mental health professionals and family members of people with mental disorders. A qualitative research approach was used as the method of choice to achieve the proposed objectives. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with mental health professionals from two psychosocial care centers (CAPS) in the city of Vitória, Espírito Santo, and with family members of frequenters of these institutions. After thematic analysis of content, senses, meanings and values assigned to the needs, supplies and demands present in this relationship were revealed. It highlighted the disparity between supply and demand and the lack of awareness of the needs of family members and their demands related to the routines of mental institutions. Using ethics in the philosophy of Spinoza as a benchmark, the ramifications of this process are discussed in the meetings between mental health professionals and family members of people with mental disorders and the micropolitics of the provision of care in the context of these actors.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the regionmore » could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.« less

Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: a case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

2013-01-01

The ever-increasing demand for water due to growth of population and socioeconomic development in the past several decades has posed a worldwide threat to water supply security and to the environmental health of rivers. This study aims to derive reservoir operating rules through establishing a multi-objective optimization model for the Xinfengjiang (XFJ) reservoir in the East River Basin in southern China to minimize water supply deficit and maximize hydropower generation. Additionally, to enhance the estimation of irrigation water demand from the downstream agricultural area of the XFJ reservoir, a conventional method for calculating crop water demand is improved using hydrological model simulation results. Although the optimal reservoir operating rules are derived for the XFJ reservoir with three priority scenarios (water supply only, hydropower generation only, and equal priority), the river environmental health is set as the basic demand no matter which scenario is adopted. The results show that the new rules derived under the three scenarios can improve the reservoir operation for both water supply and hydropower generation when comparing to the historical performance. Moreover, these alternative reservoir operating policies provide the flexibility for the reservoir authority to choose the most appropriate one. Although changing the current operating rules may influence its hydropower-oriented functions, the new rules can be significant to cope with the increasingly prominent water shortage and degradation in the aquatic environment. Overall, our results and methods (improved estimation of irrigation water demand and formulation of the reservoir optimization model) can be useful for local watershed managers and valuable for other researchers worldwide.

Simulating partially illegal markets of private tanker water providers on the country level: A multi-agent, hydroeconomic case-study of Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, C. J. A.; Yoon, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Sigel, K.; Talozi, S.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.; Harou, J. J.; Mustafa, D.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Rajsekhar, D.; Avisse, N.; Zhang, H.

2016-12-01

In arid countries around the world, markets of private small-scale water providers, mostly delivering water via tanker trucks, have emerged to balance the shortcomings of public water supply systems. While these markets can provide substantial contributions to meeting customers' water demands, they often partially rely on illegal water abstractions, thus imposing an unregulated and unmonitored strain on ground and surface water resources. Despite their important impacts on water users' welfare and resource sustainability, these markets are still poorly understood. We use a multi-agent, hydroeconomic simulation model, developed as part of the Jordan Water Project, to investigate the role of these markets in a country-wide case-study of Jordan. Jordan's water sector is characterized by a severe and growing scarcity of water resources, high intermittency in the public water network, and a strongly increasing demand due to an unprecedented refugee crisis. The tanker water market serves an important role in providing water from rural wells to households and commercial enterprises, especially during supply interruptions. In order to overcome the lack of direct data about this partially illegal market, we simulate demand and supply for tanker water. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. A market algorithm is then used to match rural supplies with users' demands, accounting for survey data on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is used to gain insights into the size of the tanker markets in all 89 subdistricts of Jordan and their responsiveness to various policy interventions. A dynamic coupling of the model with a country-wide groundwater model allows for projections of the spatial development of the tanker market over time. Accounting for this important supply source will be essential for the formulation of any policy aiming to reconcile the interests of water users with resource sustainability.

International issues in transplantation. Setting the scene and flagging the most urgent and controversial issues.

PubMed

Miranda, B; Matesanz, R

1998-12-30

Organ transplantation is the primary technique for treatment of end-stage organ failure and has benefited more than one million persons world wide. A number of patients have survived for well over 25 years and survival rates at 5 years can be 70% or higher for many organ transplant programs. However, currently more than 40,000 patients are waiting for a kidney, and in western Europe mortality rates for patients waiting for a heart, liver, or lung range from 15 to 30%. The potential need for transplants is even greater and this imbalance between supply and demand creates technical and ethical problems including the risk of organ trafficking. Consequently the number of available organs must be increased. In some cases the organ shortage reflects a true lack of donors, but more often it results from the failure to turn potential into actual donors. The transplant commission of the Council of Europe has just approved a document recommending that member states ensure that all potential donors are identified and as many as possible converted to actual donors. Even with the highest organ donation rate, the indications for organ and tissue transplantation will continue to increase, perpetuating the gap between supply and demand. Organ transplantation, whether living or cadaveric, might be supplemented or replaced by the use of artificial organs, although problems such as power supply, thrombosis, infection, and biocompatibility pose obstacles to long-term function. The use of animals as an alternative source is considered, but so many problems still remain unresolved that xenotransplantation cannot be put forth as a solution at this time. This paper reviews these issues and, citing the Spanish experience, offers strategies to improve the organ donation rate.

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, Matthew; Macal, Charles M.; Conzelmann, Guenter

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supplymore » of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.« less

The effect of increased consumer demand on fees for aesthetic surgery: an economic analysis.

PubMed

Krieger, L M; Shaw, W W

1999-12-01

Economic theory dictates that changes in consumer demand have predictable effects on prices. Demographics represents an important component of demand for aesthetic surgery. Between the years of 1997 and 2010, the U.S. population is projected to increase by 12 percent. The population increase will be skewed such that those groups undergoing the most aesthetic surgery will see the largest increase. Accounting for the age-specific frequencies of aesthetic surgery and the population increase yields an estimate that the overall market for aesthetic surgery will increase by 19 percent. Barring unforeseen changes in general economic conditions or consumer tastes, demand should increase by an analogous amount. An economic demonstration shows the effects of increasing demand for aesthetic surgery on its fees. Between the years of 1992 and 1997, there was an increase in demand for breast augmentation as fears of associated autoimmune disorders subsided. Similarly, there was increased male acceptance of aesthetic surgery. The number of breast augmentations and procedures to treat male pattern baldness, plastic surgeons, and fees for the procedures were tracked. During the study period, the supply of surgeons and consumer demand increased for both of these procedures. Volume of breast augmentation increased by 275 percent, whereas real fees remained stable. Volume of treatment for male pattern baldness increased by 107 percent, and the fees increased by 29 percent. Ordinarily, an increase in supply leads to a decrease in prices. This did not occur during the study period. Economic analysis demonstrates that the increased supply of surgeons performing breast augmentation was offset by increased consumer demand for the procedure. For this reason, fees were not lowered. Similarly, increased demand for treatment of male pattern baldness more than offset the increased supply of surgeons performing it. The result was higher fees. Emphasis should be placed on using these economic relationships to expand the demand for aesthetic surgery.

Modeling Water Utility Investments and Improving Regulatory Policies using Economic Optimisation in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padula, S.; Harou, J. J.

2012-12-01

Water utilities in England and Wales are regulated natural monopolies called 'water companies'. Water companies must obtain periodic regulatory approval for all investments (new supply infrastructure or demand management measures). Both water companies and their regulators use results from least economic cost capacity expansion optimisation models to develop or assess water supply investment plans. This presentation first describes the formulation of a flexible supply-demand planning capacity expansion model for water system planning. The model uses a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to choose the least-cost schedule of future supply schemes (reservoirs, desalination plants, etc.) and demand management (DM) measures (leakage reduction, water efficiency and metering options) and bulk transfers. Decisions include what schemes to implement, when to do so, how to size schemes and how much to use each scheme during each year of an n-year long planning horizon (typically 30 years). In addition to capital and operating (fixed and variable) costs, the estimated social and environmental costs of schemes are considered. Each proposed scheme is costed discretely at one or more capacities following regulatory guidelines. The model uses a node-link network structure: water demand nodes are connected to supply and demand management (DM) options (represented as nodes) or to other demand nodes (transfers). Yields from existing and proposed are estimated separately using detailed water resource system simulation models evaluated over the historical period. The model simultaneously considers multiple demand scenarios to ensure demands are met at required reliability levels; use levels of each scheme are evaluated for each demand scenario and weighted by scenario likelihood so that operating costs are accurately evaluated. Multiple interdependency relationships between schemes (pre-requisites, mutual exclusivity, start dates, etc.) can be accounted for by additional constraints. User-defined annual water saving profiles are used for DM schemes so that water conservation 'yields' can follow observed patterns. A two-stage optimization procedure is applied to deal with network infeasibilities which appear in large applications. We apply the model to a regional system of seven water companies in the South East of England, the driest part of the UK with its largest and fastest growing population. The model's spatial units are water supply zones, i.e. interconnected zones of equal supply reliability; each company contains between 3 and 8 of these. Economic benefits of greater sharing of resources among water companies (regional water transfers) are evaluated by considering bi-directional interconnections between all neighboring supply zones. Next we describe an extension of the model to investigate how current regulations incentivize companies to invest in an attempt to understand how better regulations can incentivize more water transfers. Finally, an attempt is made to change from the current model assumption of perfect cooperation between companies to one that represents the fact that each company is a private company seeking to maximize its own benefits. Limitations and advantages of the formulations are discussed and recommendations for capacity expansion modeling are made.

The economic impact of restricted water supply: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

PubMed

Berrittella, Maria; Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Rehdanz, Katrin; Roson, Roberto; Tol, Richard S J

2007-04-01

Water problems are typically studied at the level of the river catchment. About 70% of all water is used for agriculture, and agricultural products are traded internationally. A full understanding of water use is impossible without understanding the international market for food and related products, such as textiles. The water embedded in commodities is called virtual water. Based on a general equilibrium model, we offer a method for investigating the role of water resources and water scarcity in the context of international trade. We run five alternative scenarios, analyzing the effects of water scarcity due to reduced availability of groundwater. This can be a consequence of physical constraints, and of policies curbing water demand. Four scenarios are based on a "market solution", where water owners can capitalize their water rent or taxes are recycled. In the fifth "non-market" scenario, this is not the case; supply restrictions imply productivity losses. Restrictions in water supply would shift trade patterns of agriculture and virtual water. These shifts are larger if the restriction is larger, and if the use of water in production is more rigid. Welfare losses are substantially larger in the non-market situation. Water-constrained agricultural producers lose, but unconstrained agricultural produces gain; industry gains as well. As a result, there are regional winners and losers from water supply constraints. Because of the current distortions of agricultural markets, water supply constraints could improve allocative efficiency; this welfare gain may more than offset the welfare losses due to the resource constraint.

Dendrophenology: Inferring the response of North American eastern deciduous forests to an earlier spring from tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmore, A. J.; Nelson, D. M.; Craine, J. M.

2016-12-01

There is wide agreement that anthropogenic climate warming has influenced the phenology of forests during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. A critical question for predicting the magnitude of future warming under different emissions scenarios is the degree to which forest productivity responds to longer growing seasons in the face of concurrent changes in other drivers of productivity. Longer growing seasons can lead to increased photosynthesis and productivity, which would represent a negative feedback to rising CO2 and consequently warming. Alternatively, increased demand for soil resources due to a longer photosynthetically active period in conjunction with other global change factors might exacerbate resource limitation, restricting forest productivity response to a longer growing season. In this case, increased spring-time productivity has the potential to increase plant N limitation by increasing plant demand for N more than N supplies, or increasing early-season ecosystem N losses. Long-term direct measurements are not yet available to specifically address this question, but advances in remote sensing and dendroecological methods present opportunities to acquire information retrospectively to advance understanding of how phenological changes and resource availability to trees have been affecting forest productivity. Here we show that for 222 trees representing three species in eastern North America over the past 30 years earlier spring phenology has caused declines in N availability to trees by increasing demand for N relative to supply. The observed decline in N availability is not associated with reduced wood production, suggesting that other environmental changes such as increased atmospheric CO2 and water availability have likely overwhelmed reduced N availability. Given current trajectories of environmental changes, N limitation will likely continue to increase for these forests, possibly further limiting C sequestration potential.

Factors that affect public-supply water use in Florida, with a section on projected water use to the year 2020

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marella, R.L.

1992-01-01

Public-supply water use in Florida increased 242 percent between 1960 and 1987 from 530 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) to 1,811 Mgal/d. This change is primarily a result of increases in population and tourism since 1960. Public-supply utilities provide water to a variety of users. In 1985, 71 percent of the water used for public supply was delivered for residential uses, 15 percent for commercial uses, 9 percent for industrial uses, and the remaining 5 percent for public use or other uses. Residential use of public-supply water in Florida has increased nearly 280 Mgal/d, but has decreased in the proportion of total deliveries from 80 to 71 percent between 1975 and 1985. This trend resulted from increased tourism and related commercial services associated with population and visitors. One of several factors that influences public-supply water use in Florida is the increase in resident population, which increased from 4.95 million in 1960 to more than 12.0 million in 1987. Additionally, Florida's nonresident population increased from 18.8 million visitors in 1977, to 34.1 million visitors in 1987, and the part of Florida?s population that relies on public-supply water increased from 68 percent in 1960, to 86 percent in 1987. The public supply per capita use was multiplied by the projected populations for each county for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 to forecast public-supply water use. Using medium projections, Florida?s population is expected to increase to nearly 16 million in the year 2000, to 18 million in the year 2010, and to almost 20 million in the year 2020, of which an estimated 13.5 million people will be supplied water from public-supply water systems in the year 2000, 15 million in 2010, and nearly 17 million by the year 2020. Public-supply water use is expected to increase to a projected (medium) 2,310 Mgal/d in the year 2000, 2,610 Mgal/d in the year 2010, and 2,890 Mgal/d in the year 2020. If the population exceeds the medium projections for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, high projections estimate public-supply water use could reach 2,570 Mgal/d in 2000, 3,210 Mgal/d in 2010, and 3,900 Mgal/d in 2020. Palm Beach County is projected to have the largest increase in public-supply water use, from 168 Mgal/d used in 1987 to a medium projected 338 Mgal/d for 2020. Dade County?s public-supply water use is projected (medium) to increase to nearly 471 Mgal/d for 2020, the largest county use in Florida. Water demand options, such as conservation, restrictions, education programs, leak detection and repair programs, and more realistic pricing practices can reduce the demand for freshwater. Increased use of alternative sources of water, such as reclaimed wastewater and desalinated seawater also can reduce the demand for freshwater. Because the water demand projections in this report are based primarily on population projections, they should represent an upper limit of actual future demand if the population projections prove sound. Any additional water demand options implemented in the future at the State, county, or public-supply facility level may significantly reduce per capita use and result in public-supply use less than projected in this report.

Interactions between striped bass and other gamefish in reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, Leandro E.; Raborn, Scott W.

2013-01-01

Competitive interactions among reservoir fishes may be pronounced because fish assemblages in these artificial environments have had little time to develop niche-partitioning strategies that alleviate negative interspecific interactions. Such interactions may at times have been intensified by introductions of predators such as striped bass Morone saxatilis, introduced to create additional fisheries and control pelagic clupeids. Possible interactions between existing fish assemblages and striped bass include predation and competition. While there is a perception among angler groups that predation by striped bass on co-existing game fish is significant, most studies have reported little or no predation on game fish my striped bass and have considered predation rare and inconsequential. Moreover, predation that occurs will likely be compensatory and fail to reduce overall game fish survival. Any indirect effect of striped bass predation by restricting prey-sized game fish to limited refuge sites remains unknown. Exploitative competition may be more common. Although infrequently, introduced striped bass have depleted prey resources shared with other piscivores, particularly when stocking rates have been high, when there is a high rate of natural reproduction, or when prey supply has plunged in response to environmental fluxes. Fluctuation in prey supply, associated with ordinary environmental variability, and associated time lages in prey supply and predator demand, preclude adjusting predator densities to exactly balance demand with supply. The frequency of low supply-demand rations varies across systems and exhibits seasonal trends. Nevertheless, chronic supply-demand imbalances are manageable where the predator assemblage is at least partially controlled through stocking, harvest regulations, or both. Because of the poor state of knowledge concerning the parameters defining balance and because uncontrollable annual fluctuations preclude exact management of alternating prey levels, we suggest adjusting stocking to manage demand to that it equals the median historical prey supply. Simulating the removal of striped bass and predicting the aftermath may be the most cost-efficient way to provide decision support for stakeholders involved in determining if a striped bass stocking program is beneficial to most users.

The Supply of and Demand for Charitable Donations to Higher Education. NBER Working Paper No. 18389

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Jeffrey R.; Dimmock, Stephen G.; Weisbenner, Scott

2012-01-01

Charitable donations are an important revenue source for many institutions of higher education. We explore how donations respond to economic and financial market shocks, accounting for both supply and demand channels through which these shocks operate. In panel data with fixed effects to control for unobservable differences across universities, we…

Personnel Supply and Demand: A Context for Special Education. Information on Personnel Supply and Demand.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Clearinghouse for Professions in Special Education, Reston, VA.

Annual surveys by the Association for School, College, and University Staffing show that various categories of special education are among the major areas of personnel shortage in all of education. Especially severe areas of shortage occur in the areas of emotional disturbance/behavior disorders, learning disabilities, and multiple/severe…

From Student Follow-Up Responses to a Statewide Supply/Demand Analysis of Educational Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Toni

The Texas Student Follow-up Information System (Tex-SIS) for comprehensive postsecondary follow-up and the supply/demand analysis work of the Texas 1202 Commission, Office of Postsecondary Education Planning, together may provide a valuable prototype for other states and perhaps even for a national system of data collection and analysis. Tex-SIS…

The Supply and Demand for College Educated Labor.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nollen, Stanley D.

In this study a model for the supply of college educated labor is developed from human capital theory. A demand model is added, derived from neoclassical production function theory. Empirical estimates are made for white males and white females, using cross-sectional data on states of the U.S., 1960-70. In human capital theory, education is an…

Tuition at PhD-Granting Institutions: A Supply and Demand Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koshal, Rajindar K.; And Others

1994-01-01

Builds and estimates a model that explains educational supply and demand behavior at PhD-granting institutions in the United States. The statistical analysis based on 1988-89 data suggests that student quantity, educational costs, average SAT score, class size, percentage of faculty with a PhD, graduation rate, ranking, and existence of a medical…

The Supply and Demand of Technology and Engineering Teachers in the United States: Who Knows?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moye, Johnny J.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the supply and demand of technology and engineering teachers in the United States. Once gathered, the resulting data (that was available) was compared to previous studies to determine trends. The researcher reviewed the 2010-11 through 2015-16 Technology & Engineering Teacher Education Directories. To…

Pedagogical Tools for Teaching Supply and Demand Using Lessons from Transitional Economies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cech, Roman; Marks, Melanie Beth

2007-01-01

The typical method of presenting supply and demand in high school classes often leaves students with an impression that markets are simple and function effortlessly. In reality, the effectiveness of markets depends on the quality of complex institutions such as private property and property-rights enforcement. Students often do not realize that…

An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

1982-01-01

In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

Factors Influencing the Demand and Supply of Public School Teachers in Indiana: An Exploratory Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Debertin, David L.; Huie, John M.

1975-01-01

Describes a conceptual model representing the demand and supply of public school teachers and the relationship between the assessed valuation of property within a school district and the training, experience, and salary levels of teachers in the district, based on an analysis of data from 269 Indiana school districts. (Author/JG)

Using Supply, Demand, and the Cournot Model to Understand Corruption

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayford, Marc D.

2007-01-01

The author combines the supply and demand model of taxes with a Cournot model of bribe takers to develop a simple and useful framework for understanding the effect of corruption on economic activity. There are many examples of corruption in both developed and developing countries. Because corruption decreases the level of economic activity and…

Applying Knowledge Management to an Organization's Transformation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Shannon; Gill, Tracy; Fritsche, Ralph

2008-01-01

Although workers in the information age have more information at their fingertips than ever before, the ability to effectively capture and reuse actual knowledge is still a surmounting challenge for many organizations. As high tech organizations transform from providing complex products and services in an established domain to providing them in new domains, knowledge remains an increasingly valuable commodity. This paper explores the supply and demand elements of the "knowledge market" within the International Space Station and Spacecraft Processing Directorate (ISSSPD) of NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC). It examines how knowledge supply and knowledge demand determine the success of an organization's knowledge management (KM) activities, and how the elements of a KM infrastructure (tools, culture, and training), can be used to create and sustain knowledge supply and demand

First oxygenated gasoline season shakes out differently than expected

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, C.; Hackworth, J.H.; Shore, J.M.

1993-10-25

The U.S.'s first oxygenated gasoline season began Nov. 1, 1992. Refiners and marketers achieved compliance with these new specs with little upset to the gasoline production and distribution system. But although the season went smoothly, it did not shake out exactly as projected. Demand for oxygenated gasoline and, in particular, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), was lower than expected. Prior to the season, refiners were concerned that oxygenates might be in short supply. No supply shortages developed, however, and prices of both oxygenates and gasoline decreased during the season. The paper discusses gasoline demand, administration of the oxygenated gasoline program,more » spillover, reduced demand, ethanol, oxygenate supply, prices, ethanol tax credit, refinery economics, and the outlook for next season.« less

Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) model for supply chain collaboration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CHAPMAN,LEON D.; PETERSEN,MARJORIE B.

The Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) project during the last five years of work with the U.S. Integrated Textile Complex (retail, apparel, textile, and fiber sectors) has developed an inter-enterprise architecture and collaborative model for supply chains. This model will enable improved collaborative business across any supply chain. The DAMA Model for Supply Chain Collaboration is a high-level model for collaboration to achieve Demand Activated Manufacturing. The five major elements of the architecture to support collaboration are (1) activity or process, (2) information, (3) application, (4) data, and (5) infrastructure. These five elements are tied to the application of themore » DAMA architecture to three phases of collaboration - prepare, pilot, and scale. There are six collaborative activities that may be employed in this model: (1) Develop Business Planning Agreements, (2) Define Products, (3) Forecast and Plan Capacity Commitments, (4) Schedule Product and Product Delivery, (5) Expedite Production and Delivery Exceptions, and (6) Populate Supply Chain Utility. The Supply Chain Utility is a set of applications implemented to support collaborative product definition, forecast visibility, planning, scheduling, and execution. The DAMA architecture and model will be presented along with the process for implementing this DAMA model.« less

Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In light of Germany's ageing society, demand for nursing professionals is expected to increase in the coming years. This will pose a challenge for policy makers to increase the supply of nursing professionals. Methodology To portray the different possible developments in the supply of nursing professionals, we projected the supply of formally trained nurses and the potential supply of persons who are able to work in a nursing profession. This potential supply of nursing professionals was calculated on the basis of empirical information on occupational mobility provided by the German Microcensus 2005 (Labour Force Survey). We also calculated how the supply of full-time equivalents (FTEs) will develop if current employment structures develop in the direction of employment behaviour in nursing professions in eastern and western Germany. We then compared these different supply scenarios with two demand projections ('status quo' and 'compression of morbidity' scenarios) from Germany's Federal Statistical Office. Results Our results show that, even as early as 2005, meeting demand for FTEs in nursing professions was not arithmetically possible when only persons with formal qualification in a nursing profession were taken into account on the supply side. When additional semi-skilled nursing professionals are included in the calculation, a shortage of labour in nursing professions can be expected in 2018 when the employment structure for all nursing professionals remains the same as the employment structure seen in Germany in 2005 (demand: 'status quo scenario'). Furthermore, given an employment structure as in eastern Germany, where more nursing professionals work on a full-time basis with longer working hours, a theoretical shortage of nursing professionals could be delayed until 2024. Conclusions Our analysis of occupational flexibility in the nursing field indicates that additional potential supply could be generated by especially training more young people for a nursing profession as they tend to stay in their initial occupation. Furthermore, the number of FTEs in nursing professions could be increased by promoting more full-time contracts in Western Germany. Additionally, employment contracts for just a small number of weekly working hours (marginal employment) cannot be considered an adequate instrument for keeping formally trained nursing professionals employed in the nursing field. PMID:23734939

Water stress, water salience, and the implications for water supply planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2017-12-01

Effectively addressing the water supply challenges posed by urbanization and climate change requires a holistic understanding of the water supply system, including the impact of human behavior on system dynamics. Decision makers have limits to available information and information processing capacity, and their attention is not equally distributed among risks. The salience of a given risk is higher when increased attention is directed to it and though perceived risk may increase, real risk does not change. Relevant to water supply planning is how and when water stress results in an increased salience of water risks. This work takes a socio-hydrological approach to develop a water supply planning model that includes water consumption as an endogenous variable, in the context of Las Vegas, NV. To understand the benefits and limitations of this approach, this model is compared to a traditional planning model that uses water consumption scenarios. Both models are applied to project system reliability and water stress under four streamflow and demographic scenarios, and to assess supply side responses to changing conditions. The endogenous demand model enables the identification of feedback between both supply and demand management decisions on future water consumption and system performance. This model, while specific to the Las Vegas case, demonstrates a prototypical modeling framework capable of examining water-supply demand interactions by incorporating water stress driven conservation.

Proposed energy conservation contingency plan: emergency restrictions on illuminated advertising and certain gas lighting. Economic impact analysis. Environmental impact assessment. Contingency plan No. 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

In the event of a severe energy supply disruption or in order to fulfill obligations of the U.S. under the International Energy Program, the President may implement one or more energy conservation contingency plans provided for in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) of 1975. This report describes the economic impact of restrictions on the use of illuminated advertising and certain gas lighting. The proposed plan would reduce demand for electricity and natural gas. The reduced demand for electricity would result in reduced demand for oil, natural gas, and other fuels used to generate electricity. Since oil and naturalmore » gas would be in short supply, the reduced use of these fuels in the generation of electricity could make supplies available to other industries. By contrast, the coal supply would not be affected by these conditions. However, the substitutability of coal for fuels in short supply (especially oil for electric generation) would tend to offset the impact of reduced demand for coal to generate electricity. Advertising expenditures would shift. Expenditures for illuminated outdoor signs would fall and expenditures for advertising in other media (e.g., radio, newspapers) would rise. No significant effect upon aggregate retail sales is anticipated. In summary, microeconomic effects of the measure are negligible and all effects are minor and/or beneficial. These effects are almost lost in the projected economic effects that would result from any severe supply interruption.« less

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Global impacts of energy demand on the freshwater resources of nations.

PubMed

Holland, Robert Alan; Scott, Kate A; Flörke, Martina; Brown, Gareth; Ewers, Robert M; Farmer, Elizabeth; Kapos, Valerie; Muggeridge, Ann; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Taylor, Gail; Barrett, John; Eigenbrod, Felix

2015-12-01

The growing geographic disconnect between consumption of goods, the extraction and processing of resources, and the environmental impacts associated with production activities makes it crucial to factor global trade into sustainability assessments. Using an empirically validated environmentally extended global trade model, we examine the relationship between two key resources underpinning economies and human well--being-energy and freshwater. A comparison of three energy sectors (petroleum, gas, and electricity) reveals that freshwater consumption associated with gas and electricity production is largely confined within the territorial boundaries where demand originates. This finding contrasts with petroleum, which exhibits a varying ratio of territorial to international freshwater consumption, depending on the origin of demand. For example, although the United States and China have similar demand associated with the petroleum sector, international freshwater consumption is three times higher for the former than the latter. Based on mapping patterns of freshwater consumption associated with energy sectors at subnational scales, our analysis also reveals concordance between pressure on freshwater resources associated with energy production and freshwater scarcity in a number of river basins globally. These energy-driven pressures on freshwater resources in areas distant from the origin of energy demand complicate the design of policy to ensure security of fresh water and energy supply. Although much of the debate around energy is focused on greenhouse gas emissions, our findings highlight the need to consider the full range of consequences of energy production when designing policy.

Global impacts of energy demand on the freshwater resources of nations

PubMed Central

Holland, Robert Alan; Scott, Kate A.; Flörke, Martina; Brown, Gareth; Ewers, Robert M.; Farmer, Elizabeth; Kapos, Valerie; Muggeridge, Ann; Taylor, Gail; Barrett, John; Eigenbrod, Felix

2015-01-01

The growing geographic disconnect between consumption of goods, the extraction and processing of resources, and the environmental impacts associated with production activities makes it crucial to factor global trade into sustainability assessments. Using an empirically validated environmentally extended global trade model, we examine the relationship between two key resources underpinning economies and human well-being—energy and freshwater. A comparison of three energy sectors (petroleum, gas, and electricity) reveals that freshwater consumption associated with gas and electricity production is largely confined within the territorial boundaries where demand originates. This finding contrasts with petroleum, which exhibits a varying ratio of territorial to international freshwater consumption, depending on the origin of demand. For example, although the United States and China have similar demand associated with the petroleum sector, international freshwater consumption is three times higher for the former than the latter. Based on mapping patterns of freshwater consumption associated with energy sectors at subnational scales, our analysis also reveals concordance between pressure on freshwater resources associated with energy production and freshwater scarcity in a number of river basins globally. These energy-driven pressures on freshwater resources in areas distant from the origin of energy demand complicate the design of policy to ensure security of fresh water and energy supply. Although much of the debate around energy is focused on greenhouse gas emissions, our findings highlight the need to consider the full range of consequences of energy production when designing policy. PMID:26627262

[Personal budget for persons in need of care. A socio-economic change with new perspectives for supply and demand].

PubMed

Meyer, Dirk

2005-11-01

In October 2004, in Germany a pre-operating study was started in order to prove the feasibility and consequences of the use of personal budgets by persons who are in need of nursing care. About 1000 care dependent persons living in seven regions are included in this triannual study. For three years they receive a budget amounting to 100 percent of their right of benefit in kind according to the German compulsory long-term care insurance. This budget has to be used exclusively for care-related services and must not be spent for assistance delivered by family members or neighbours. From socio-economic perspectives, the personal budget will result in a promotion of individuals instead of certain services or service institutions. An analysis shows, that the consequences might be an increased efficiency and effectiveness as well as structural changes within the supply of nursing care services. But to achieve these advantages, certain conditions must be provided. At first, the amount of the budget has to correspond to the individual need of care, which can change over time. Secondly, a misapplication of the personal fund has to be prevented without to exclude the potential of local or family dedication. And finally, new ways of quality assurance are requested due to the scope for development, which arises through deregulation.

Reducing stock-outs of essential tuberculosis medicines: a system dynamics modelling approach to supply chain management.

PubMed

Bam, L; McLaren, Z M; Coetzee, E; von Leipzig, K H

2017-10-01

The under-performance of supply chains presents a significant hindrance to disease control in developing countries. Stock-outs of essential medicines lead to treatment interruption which can force changes in patient drug regimens, drive drug resistance and increase mortality. This study is one of few to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of supply chain policies in reducing shortages and costs. This study develops a systems dynamics simulation model of the downstream supply chain for amikacin, a second-line tuberculosis drug using 10 years of South African data. We evaluate current supply chain performance in terms of reliability, responsiveness and agility, following the widely-used Supply Chain Operation Reference framework. We simulate 141 scenarios that represent different combinations of supplier characteristics, inventory management strategies and demand forecasting methods to identify the Pareto optimal set of management policies that jointly minimize the number of shortages and total cost. Despite long supplier lead times and unpredictable demand, the amikacin supply chain is 98% reliable and agile enough to accommodate a 20% increase in demand without a shortage. However, this is accomplished by overstocking amikacin by 167%, which incurs high holding costs. The responsiveness of suppliers is low: only 57% of orders are delivered to the central provincial drug depot within one month. We identify three Pareto optimal safety stock management policies. Short supplier lead time can produce Pareto optimal outcomes even in the absence of other optimal policies. This study produces concrete, actionable guidelines to cost-effectively reduce stock-outs by implementing optimal supply chain policies. Preferentially selecting drug suppliers with short lead times accommodates unexpected changes in demand. Optimal supply chain management should be an essential component of national policy to reduce the mortality rate. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Regional price targets appropriate for advanced coal extraction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Whipple, D. M.

1980-01-01

A methodology is presented for predicting coal prices in regional markets for the target time frames 1985 and 2000 that could subsequently be used to guide the development of an advanced coal extraction system. The model constructed is a supply and demand model that focuses on underground mining since the advanced technology is expected to be developed for these reserves by the target years. Coal reserve data and the cost of operating a mine are used to obtain the minimum acceptable selling price that would induce the producer to bring the mine into production. Based on this information, market supply curves can be generated. Demand by region is calculated based on an EEA methodology that emphasizes demand by electric utilities and demand by industry. The demand and supply curves are then used to obtain the price targets. The results show a growth in the size of the markets for compliance and low sulphur coal regions. A significant rise in the real price of coal is not expected even by the year 2000. The model predicts heavy reliance on mines with thick seams, larger block size and deep overburden.

Paris polyphylla: chemical and biological prospectives.

PubMed

Negi, Jagmohan S; Bisht, Vinod K; Bhandari, Arvind K; Bhatt, Vijay P; Singh, Pramod; Singh, Narayan

2014-01-01

Paris polyphylla J.E. Smith is extensively used in traditional systems of Indian and Chinese medicines mainly for its anticancerous property. The national and international demand for P. polyphylla is constantly increasing and most of the supplies come from wild. Illegal and unscientific exploitation coupled with habitat destruction decreases the natural population of the herb, as a consequence this species comes under vulnerable category. Restoration and conservation of the natural population of this potential herb is prerequisites. This article aims to provide an overview on chemical and biological prospective of P. polyphylla. Secondary metabolites such as daucosterol, polyphyllin D, β -ecdysterone, Paris saponins I, II, V, VI, VII, H, dioscin, oligosaccharides, heptasaccharide, octasaccharide, trigofoenoside A, protogracillin, Paris yunnanosides G-J, padelaoside B, pinnatasterone, formosanin C and 20-hydroxyecdyson saponins have been isolated from P. polyphylla. Several biological activities such as anticancerous, antitumor, cytotoxic, anthelmintic, antimicrobial, antiangiogenic, immunostimulating, contractile and hemostatic have also been reported. Consequently, this review will be helpful to the researcher and scientist for further research.

Analysis of Agility Performance of Supply Chain: A Case Study on Indian Automotive Manufacturer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Routroy, S.; Sharma, S.; Bhardwaj, A.

2018-04-01

Manufacturing companies should understand the changing customer needs and expectations, access and defend the competitive pressure, anticipate and manage the uncertain demand and supply chain risk, and implement the appropriate technology to survive and excel in today’s marketplace. Therefore, they are moving away from mass production (i.e. lean supply chain) to one based on fast-responsiveness and flexibility, capitalizing on the rapid advancement in internet technologies and factory-on-demand mode of production (i.e. agile supply chain). It is observed that manufacturing companies in India in general and automotive supply chain in specific are compelled to cultivate supply chain agility for enhancing its performance level on continuous basis and comparing its supply chain agility performance with competitors to survive and sustain in the competitive business environment. Therefore, a methodology is proposed to evaluate the supply chain agility of a manufacturing supply chain and compare its performance level with competitors using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Taguchi Loss Function. A case study is developed and the proposed methodology is applied to Indian automotive supply chain for explaining the salient features of it.

Using Water Transfers to Manage Supply Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.

2007-12-01

Most cities currently rely on water supplies with sufficient capacity to meet demand under almost all conditions. However, the rising costs of water supply development make the maintenance of infrequently used excess capacity increasingly expensive, and more utilities are considering the use of water transfers as a means of more cost effectively meeting demand under drought conditions. Transfers can take place between utilities, as well as different user groups (e.g., municipal and agricultural), and can involve both treated and untreated water. In cases where both the "buyer" and "seller" draw water from the same supply, contractual agreements alone can facilitate a transfer, but in other cases new infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) will be required. Developing and valuing transfer agreements and/or infrastructure investments requires probabilistic supply/demand analyses that incorporate elements of both hydrology and economics. The complexity of these analyses increases as more sophisticated types of agreements (e. g., options) are considered, and as utilities begin to consider how to integrate transfers into long-term planning efforts involving a more diversified portfolio of supply assets. This discussion will revolve around the methods used to develop minimum (expected) cost portfolios of supply assets that meet specified reliability goals. Two different case studies, one in both the eastern and western U.S., will be described with attention to: the role that transfers can play in reducing average supply costs; tradeoffs between costs and supply reliability, and; the effects of different transfer agreement types on the infrastructure capacity required to complete the transfers. Results will provide insights into the cost savings potential of more flexible water supply strategies.

Cyclic mechanical loading enables solute transport and oxygen supply in bone healing: an in vitro investigation.

PubMed

Witt, Florian; Duda, Georg N; Bergmann, Camilla; Petersen, Ansgar

2014-02-01

Bone healing is a complex process with an increased metabolic activity and consequently high demand for oxygen. In the hematoma phase, inflammatory cells and mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) are initially cut off from direct nutritional supply via blood vessels. Cyclic mechanical loading that occurs, for example, during walking is expected to have an impact on the biophysical environment of the cells but meaningful quantitative experimental data are still missing. In this study, the hypothesis that cyclic mechanical loading within a physiological range significantly contributes to oxygen transport into the fracture hematoma was investigated by an in vitro approach. MSCs were embedded in a fibrin matrix to mimic the hematoma phase during bone healing. Construct geometry, culture conditions, and parameters of mechanical loading in a bioreactor system were chosen to resemble the in vivo situation based on data from human studies and a well-characterized large animal model. Oxygen tension was measured before and after mechanical loading intervals by a chemical optical microsensor. The increase in oxygen tension at the center of the constructs was significant and depended on loading time with maximal values of 9.9%±5.1%, 14.8%±4.9%, and 25.3%±7.2% of normal atmospheric oxygen tension for 5, 15, and 30 min of cyclic loading respectively. Histological staining of hypoxic cells after 48 h of incubation confirmed sensor measurements by showing an increased number of normoxic cells with intermittent cyclic compression compared with unloaded controls. The present study demonstrates that moderate cyclic mechanical loading leads to an increased oxygen transport and thus to substantially enhanced supply conditions for cells entrapped in the hematoma. This link between mechanical conditions and nutrition supply in the early regenerative phases could be employed to improve the environmental conditions for cell metabolism and consequently prevent necrosis.

Development of Novel Porous Sorbents for Extraction of Uranium from Seawater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Wenbin

Climate disruption is one of the greatest crises the global community faces in the 21st century. Alarming increases in CO 2, NO, SO 2 and particulate matter levels will have catastrophic consequences on the environment, food supplies, and human health if no action is taken to lessen their worldwide prevalence. Nuclear energy remains the only mature technology capable of continuous base-load power generation with ultralow carbon dioxide, nitric oxide, and sulfur dioxide emissions. Over the lifetime of the technology, nuclear energy outputs less than 1.5% the carbon dioxide emissions per gigawatt hour relative to coal—about as much as onshore windmore » power.1 However, in order for nuclear energy to be considered a viable option in the future, a stable supply of uranium must be secured. Current estimates suggest there is less than 100 years’ worth of uranium left in terrestrial ores (6.3 million tons) if current consumption levels remain unchanged.2 It is likely, however, that demand for nuclear fuel will rise as a direct consequence of the ratification of global climate accords. The oceans, containing approximately 4.5 billion tons of uranium (U) at a uniform concentration of ~3 ppb, represent a virtually limitless supply of this resource.3 Development of technologies to recover uranium from seawater would greatly improve the U resource availability, providing a U price ceiling for the current generation and sustaining the nuclear fuel supply for future generations. Several methods have been previously evaluated for uranium sequestration including solvent extraction, ion exchange, flotation, biomass collection, and adsorption; however, none have been found to be suitable for reasons including cost effectiveness, long term stability, and selectivity.4,5 While polymer beads and fibers have been functionalized with amidoxime functional groups to afford U adsorption capacities as high as 1.5 g U/kg,6 further discoveries are needed to make uranium extraction from seawater economically feasible.« less

Is Job Control a Double-Edged Sword? A Cross-Lagged Panel Study on the Interplay of Quantitative Workload, Emotional Dissonance, and Job Control on Emotional Exhaustion.

PubMed

Konze, Anne-Kathrin; Rivkin, Wladislaw; Schmidt, Klaus-Helmut

2017-12-20

Previous meta-analytic findings have provided ambiguous evidence on job control as a buffering moderator of the adverse impact of job demands on psychological well-being. To disentangle these mixed findings, we examine the moderating effect of job control on the adverse effects of quantitative workload and emotional dissonance as distinct work-related demands on emotional exhaustion over time. Drawing on the job demands-control model, the limited strength model of self-control, and the matching principle we propose that job control can facilitate coping with work-related demands but at the same time may also require employees' self-control. Consequently, we argue that job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance, which also necessitates self-control. We examine the proposed relations among employees from an energy supplying company ( N = 139) in a cross-lagged panel study with a six-month time lag. Our results demonstrate a mix of causal and reciprocal effects of job characteristics on emotional exhaustion over time. Furthermore, as suggested, our data provides evidence for contrasting moderating effects of job control. That is, job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance on emotional exhaustion.

Is Job Control a Double-Edged Sword? A Cross-Lagged Panel Study on the Interplay of Quantitative Workload, Emotional Dissonance, and Job Control on Emotional Exhaustion

PubMed Central

Rivkin, Wladislaw; Schmidt, Klaus-Helmut

2017-01-01

Previous meta-analytic findings have provided ambiguous evidence on job control as a buffering moderator of the adverse impact of job demands on psychological well-being. To disentangle these mixed findings, we examine the moderating effect of job control on the adverse effects of quantitative workload and emotional dissonance as distinct work-related demands on emotional exhaustion over time. Drawing on the job demands-control model, the limited strength model of self-control, and the matching principle we propose that job control can facilitate coping with work-related demands but at the same time may also require employees’ self-control. Consequently, we argue that job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance, which also necessitates self-control. We examine the proposed relations among employees from an energy supplying company (N = 139) in a cross-lagged panel study with a six-month time lag. Our results demonstrate a mix of causal and reciprocal effects of job characteristics on emotional exhaustion over time. Furthermore, as suggested, our data provides evidence for contrasting moderating effects of job control. That is, job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance on emotional exhaustion. PMID:29261116

Improving the Quality of the Supply-Demand-Match in Vocational Education and Training by Anticipation and "Matching Policy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lassnigg, Lorenz

2008-01-01

This article discusses the implications of a framework to improve matching supply and demand in VET by a policy to improve quality by using anticipation and foresight approaches. Analysis of the Austrian anticipation system identified some basic aspects such as policy. The analysis focused on two issues: the observation and measurement of…

Drought and Water Supply. Implications of the Massachusetts Experience for Municipal Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Clifford S.; And Others

This book uses the 1962-66 Massachusetts drought data as a base of information to build a planning model of water resources that is of interest to students and professionals involved with water management. Using a demand-supply ratio to measure the relative inadequacy of a given water system, the authors then project demand into the drought period…

Issues Affecting Skill Demand and Supply in Australia's Education and Training Sector. At a Glance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Leabrook (Australia).

The responses to a 1999 study of Australian employers and an examination of skill shortages by Australia's Department for Employment, Work Relations, and Small Business were analyzed to identify issues affecting skill demand and supply in Australia's education and training sector. The following were among the key findings: (1) in recent years, the…

Worldwide Natural Gas Supply and Demand and the Outlook for Global LNG Trade

EIA Publications

1997-01-01

This article is adapted from testimony by Jay Hakes, Administrator of the Energy Information Administration, before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on July 23, 1997. The hearing focused on the examination of certain aspects of natural gas into the next century with special emphasis on world natural gas supply and demand to 2015.

REGIONAL CONFERENCE ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF TEACHERS OF OCCUPATIONAL EDUCATION IN THE SOUTH. CENTER SEMINAR AND CONFERENCE REPORT, NUMBER 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

CARROLL, ADGER B.; IHNEN, LOREN A.

TWENTY-EIGHT EDUCATORS, ECONOMISTS, AND OTHERS INTERESTED IN OCCUPATIONAL EDUCATION ATTENDED THE CONFERENCE TO CONSIDER (1) REGULATION, ORGANIZATION, AND ADMINISTRATION OF FEDERAL AND STATE AGENCIES, TEACHER TRAINING INSTITUTIONS, AND LOCAL SCHOOLS AS RELATED TO THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF TEACHERS, (2) OPERATION OF THE TEACHER LABOR MARKET AND…

Effect of adhesive stiffness and thickness on stress distributions in structural finger joints

Treesearch

Leslie H. Groom; Robert J. Leichti

1994-01-01

Environmental, political. and socioeconomic actions over the past several years have resulted in a decreased wood supply at a time when there is an increased demand for forest products. This combination of increased demand and decreased supply has forced more emphasis on engineered wood products, a varied category usually connected with adhesively-bonded end joints, of...

Effect of adhesive stiffness and thickness on stress distributions in structural finger joints

Treesearch

Leslie H. Groom; Robert J. Leichti

1994-01-01

Environmental, political, and socioeconomic actions over the past several years have resulted in a decreased wood supply at a time when there is an increased demand for forest products. This combination of increased demand and decreased supply has forced more emphasis on engineered wood products, a varied category usually connected with adhesively-bonded end joints, of...

Methodologies Used by Midwest Region States for Studying Teacher Supply and Demand. Issues & Answers. REL 2009-080

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindsay, James J.; Wan, Yinmei; Gossin-Wilson, Will

2009-01-01

This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply, demand, and shortage; details why they monitor these data; and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies. This study responds to a request from state education agencies in the Midwest Region (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,…

Timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area

Treesearch

Chris B. LeDoux; Paul E. Sendak; William H. McWilliams; Neil Huyler; Thomas Malecek; Worthen Muzzey; Toni Jones

2001-01-01

This report describes a timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area using USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis data, production information provided by forest industry, and a stump-to-mill logging cost-prediction model. Nonavailable timberland that includes reserve and steep-terrain lands is...

Water Resources for our Cities. Resource Papers for College Geography No. 78-2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baumann, Duane D.; Dworkin, Daniel

This paper argues that a re-examination of current goals and methodologies and modifications to management practices are necessary if urban water crises are to be minimized. Three problem areas are focused on: (1) the projection of demand and the estimation of supply; (2) the alternatives for balancing demand and supply; and (3) the management of…

Ecosystem service markets 101: supply and demand for nature

Treesearch

Rhonda Mazza; Jeff Kline; Trista Patterson

2012-01-01

Establishing markets for ecosystem services—the benefits that nature provides, such as clean air, water, and wildlife habitat—has gained traction in some circles as a way to finance the conservation of these public goods. Market influences on supply and demand work in tandem to encourage ecosystem protection. Jeff Kline and Trista Patterson, scientists with the...

Incorporating Demand and Supply Constraints into Economic Evaluations in Low‐Income and Middle‐Income Countries

PubMed Central

Mangham‐Jefferies, Lindsay; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Pitt, Catherine; Foster, Nicola

2016-01-01

Abstract Global guidelines for new technologies are based on cost and efficacy data from a limited number of trial locations. Country‐level decision makers need to consider whether cost‐effectiveness analysis used to inform global guidelines are sufficient for their situation or whether to use models that adjust cost‐effectiveness results taking into account setting‐specific epidemiological and cost heterogeneity. However, demand and supply constraints will also impact cost‐effectiveness by influencing the standard of care and the use and implementation of any new technology. These constraints may also vary substantially by setting. We present two case studies of economic evaluations of the introduction of new diagnostics for malaria and tuberculosis control. These case studies are used to analyse how the scope of economic evaluations of each technology expanded to account for and then address demand and supply constraints over time. We use these case studies to inform a conceptual framework that can be used to explore the characteristics of intervention complexity and the influence of demand and supply constraints. Finally, we describe a number of feasible steps that researchers who wish to apply our framework in cost‐effectiveness analyses. PMID:26786617

Supply and demand analysis for flood insurance by using logistic regression model: case study at Citarum watershed in South Bandung, West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidi, P.; Mamat, M.; Sukono; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Floods have always occurred in the Citarum river basin. The adverse effects caused by floods can cover all their property, including the destruction of houses. The impact due to damage to residential buildings is usually not small. Indeed, each of flooding, the government and several social organizations providing funds to repair the building. But the donations are given very limited, so it cannot cover the entire cost of repair was necessary. The presence of insurance products for property damage caused by the floods is considered very important. However, if its presence is also considered necessary by the public or not? In this paper, the factors that affect the supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods are analyzed. The method used in this analysis is the ordinal logistic regression. Based on the analysis that the factors that affect the supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods, it is included: age, economic circumstances, family situations, insurance motivations, and lifestyle. Simultaneously that the factors affecting supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods mounted to 65.7%.

Decentral Smart Grid Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, Benjamin; Matthiae, Moritz; Timme, Marc; Witthaut, Dirk

2015-01-01

Stable operation of complex flow and transportation networks requires balanced supply and demand. For the operation of electric power grids—due to their increasing fraction of renewable energy sources—a pressing challenge is to fit the fluctuations in decentralized supply to the distributed and temporally varying demands. To achieve this goal, common smart grid concepts suggest to collect consumer demand data, centrally evaluate them given current supply and send price information back to customers for them to decide about usage. Besides restrictions regarding cyber security, privacy protection and large required investments, it remains unclear how such central smart grid options guarantee overall stability. Here we propose a Decentral Smart Grid Control, where the price is directly linked to the local grid frequency at each customer. The grid frequency provides all necessary information about the current power balance such that it is sufficient to match supply and demand without the need for a centralized IT infrastructure. We analyze the performance and the dynamical stability of the power grid with such a control system. Our results suggest that the proposed Decentral Smart Grid Control is feasible independent of effective measurement delays, if frequencies are averaged over sufficiently large time intervals.

Informal household water market and determinants of price: Evidence from an Indian hill city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Manoranjan; De, Utpal Kumar

2015-02-01

Pricing of water in the hill cities in India is different from that of plain lands, because water is a scarce resource in most of the hill cities. The supply of water by the municipalities is inadequate. The private vendors come into picture and they put the prices according to the difficulties faced in supplying to the specific locations. Thus prices become variables and are also based on the economic demand-supply mechanism in which the households try to maximise their satisfaction subject to budget and other constraints, while the vendors try to extract as much benefit as possible from the buyers. This paper tries to examine the pricing of household water use in Shillong urban area, India and the impact of various factors including income, house rent, seasonal scarcity of water, capacity of municipal supply, household size on the price-quantity determination. The analysis is made in terms of a simultaneous equation framework and the model is applied to a data collected by stratified random sampling technique across the municipal wards and non-municipal segments of greater Shillong urban Agglomeration. The result of three stage least squares reveals significant positive impacts of income, scarcity of water on the demand price while significantly negative impacts of quantity purchased, extent of municipal supply, house rent paid on the demand price. But the household size does not have any significant impact on the demand price though large household is expected to require more water. The supply of water on the other hand is not significantly affected by price, extent of municipal supply and deficiency though the coefficients are in the expected line.

Framework for Optimal Global Vaccine Stockpile Design for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Application to Measles and Cholera Vaccines as Contrasting Examples.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J

2016-07-01

Managing the dynamics of vaccine supply and demand represents a significant challenge with very high stakes. Insufficient vaccine supplies can necessitate rationing, lead to preventable adverse health outcomes, delay the achievements of elimination or eradication goals, and/or pose reputation risks for public health authorities and/or manufacturers. This article explores the dynamics of global vaccine supply and demand to consider the opportunities to develop and maintain optimal global vaccine stockpiles for universal vaccines, characterized by large global demand (for which we use measles vaccines as an example), and nonuniversal (including new and niche) vaccines (for which we use oral cholera vaccine as an example). We contrast our approach with other vaccine stockpile optimization frameworks previously developed for the United States pediatric vaccine stockpile to address disruptions in supply and global emergency response vaccine stockpiles to provide on-demand vaccines for use in outbreaks. For measles vaccine, we explore the complexity that arises due to different formulations and presentations of vaccines, consideration of rubella, and the context of regional elimination goals. We conclude that global health policy leaders and stakeholders should procure and maintain appropriate global vaccine rotating stocks for measles and rubella vaccine now to support current regional elimination goals, and should probably also do so for other vaccines to help prevent and control endemic or epidemic diseases. This work suggests the need to better model global vaccine supplies to improve efficiency in the vaccine supply chain, ensure adequate supplies to support elimination and eradication initiatives, and support progress toward the goals of the Global Vaccine Action Plan. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Explaining regional variation in home care use by demand and supply variables.

PubMed

van Noort, Olivier; Schotanus, Fredo; van de Klundert, Joris; Telgen, Jan

2018-02-01

In the Netherlands, home care services like district nursing and personal assistance are provided by private service provider organizations and covered by private health insurance companies which bear legal responsibility for purchasing these services. To improve value for money, their procurement increasingly replaces fee-for-service payments with population based budgets. Setting appropriate population budgets requires adaptation to the legitimate needs of the population, whereas historical costs are likely to be influenced by supply factors as well, not all of which are necessarily legitimate. Our purpose is to explain home care costs in terms of demand and supply factors. This allows for adjusting historical cost patterns when setting population based budgets. Using expenses claims of 60 Dutch municipalities, we analyze eight demand variables and five supply variables with a multiple regression model to explain variance in the number of clients per inhabitant, costs per client and costs per inhabitant. Our models explain 69% of variation in the number of clients per inhabitant, 28% of costs per client and 56% of costs per inhabitant using demand factors. Moreover, we find that supply factors explain an additional 17-23% of variation. Predictors of higher utilization are home care organizations that are integrated with intramural nursing homes, higher competition levels among home care organizations and the availability of complementary services. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Manpower for the coal mining industry: an assessment of adequacy through the year 2000. Volume I. Executive summary. Final technical report. [USA; forcasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenberg, J.I.; Mendis, M.S.; Medville, D.M.

1980-03-01

This report presents a summary of the analytical approach taken and the conclusions reached in an assessment of the supply and demand for manpower in the coal mining industry through the year 2000. A hybrid system dynamics/econometric model of the coal mining industry was developed which incorporates relationships between technological change, labor productivity, production costs, wages, graduation rates, and other key variables in estimating imbalances between labor supply and demand. Study results indicate that while the supply of production workers is expected to be sufficient under most future demand scenarios, periodic shortages of experienced workers, especially in the Northern Greatmore » Plains, can be expected. Other study findings are that the supply of mining engineers will be sufficient under all but the highest coal demand scenario; a shortage of faculty will affect the supply of mining engineers in the near term; and the employment of mining technicians is expected to exhibit the largest increase in any labor category studied. This volume is an Executive Summary which provides a brief description of the study and gives its major conclusions and recommendations. An accompanying volume (Vol. 11) provides a detailed description of the analytical basis for the study, the sources of data used, and a discussion of the conclusions reached.« less

Efficacy of adaptation measures to future water scarcity on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Water supply sources for all sector are critically important for agricultural and industrial productivity. The current rapid increase in water use is considered unsustainable and threatens human life. In our previous study (Yoshikawa et al., 2014 in HESS), we estimated the time-varying dependence of water requirements from water supply sources during past and future periods using the global water resources model, H08. The sources of water requirements were specified using four categories: rivers, large reservoirs, medium-size reservoirs, and non-local non-renewable blue water (NNBW). We also estimated ΔNNBW which is defined as an increase in NNBW from the past to the future. From the results, we could require the further development of water supply sources in order to sustain future water use. For coping with water scarcity using ΔNNBW, there is need for adaptation measure. To address adaptation measures, we need to set adaptation options which can be divided between 'Supply enhancement' and 'Demand management'. The supply enhancement includes increased storage, groundwater development, inter-basin transfer, desalination and re-use urban waste water. Demand management is defined as a set of actions controlling water demand by reducing water loss, increasing water productivity, and water re-allocation. In this study, we focus on estimating further future water demand under taking into account of several adaptation measures using H08 model.

Optimality of cycle time and inventory decisions in a two echelon inventory system with exponential price dependent demand under credit period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krugon, Seelam; Nagaraju, Dega

2017-05-01

This work describes and proposes an two echelon inventory system under supply chain, where the manufacturer offers credit period to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The model is framed as demand is expressed as exponential function of retailer’s unit selling price. Mathematical model is framed to demonstrate the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. The major objective of the paper is to provide trade credit concept from the manufacturer to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The retailer would like to delay the payments of the manufacturer. At the first stage retailer and manufacturer expressions are expressed with the functions of ordering cost, carrying cost, transportation cost. In second stage combining of the manufacturer and retailer expressions are expressed. A MATLAB program is written to derive the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. From the optimality criteria derived managerial insights can be made. From the research findings, it is evident that the total cost of the supply chain is decreased with the increase in credit period under exponential price dependent demand. To analyse the influence of the model parameters, parametric analysis is also done by taking with help of numerical example.

Forecasting imbalances in the global health labor market and devising policy responses.

PubMed

Scheffler, Richard M; Campbell, James; Cometto, Giorgio; Maeda, Akiko; Liu, Jenny; Bruckner, Tim A; Arnold, Daniel R; Evans, Tim

2018-01-11

The High-Level Commission on Health Employment and Economic Growth released its report to the United Nations Secretary-General in September 2016. It makes important recommendations that are based on estimates of over 40 million new health sector jobs by 2030 in mostly high- and middle-income countries and a needs-based shortage of 18 million, mostly in low- and middle-income countries. This paper shows how these key findings were developed, the global policy dilemmas they raise, and relevant policy solutions. Regression analysis is used to produce estimates of health worker need, demand, and supply. Projections of health worker need, demand, and supply in 2030 are made under the assumption that historical trends continue into the future. To deliver essential health services required for the universal health coverage target of the Sustainable Development Goal 3, there will be a need for almost 45 million health workers in 2013 which is projected to reach almost 53 million in 2030 (across 165 countries). This results in a needs-based shortage of almost 17 million in 2013. The demand-based results suggest a projected demand of 80 million health workers by 2030. Demand-based analysis shows that high- and middle-income countries will have the economic capacity to employ tens of millions additional health workers, but they could face shortages due to supply not keeping up with demand. By contrast, low-income countries will face both low demand for and supply of health workers. This means that even if countries are able to produce additional workers to meet the need threshold, they may not be able to employ and retain these workers without considerably higher economic growth, especially in the health sector.

Implications of demographics on future blood supply: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Fendrich, Konstanze; Brzenska, Ralf; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2011-04-01

Data on blood recipients are sparse and unconnected to data on blood donors. The objective was to analyze the impact of the demographic change on future blood demand and supply in a German federal state. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. For all in-hospital transfused red blood cells (RBCs; n = 95,477), in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Pomerania in 2005, characteristics of the patient and the blood donor (118,406 blood donations) were obtained. Population data were used to predict blood demand and supply until 2020. By 2020 the population increase of those aged 65 years or more (+26.4%) in Mecklenburg-Pomerania will be paralleled by a decrease of the potential donor population (18-68 years; -16.1%). Assuming stable rates per age group until 2020, the demand for in-hospital blood transfusions will increase by approximately 25% (24,000 RBC units) while blood donations will decrease by approximately 27% (32,000 RBC units). The resulting, predicted shortfall is 47% of demand for in-hospital patients (56,000 RBC units). Validation using historical data (1997-2007) showed that the model predicted the RBC demand with a deviation of only 1.2%. Demographic changes are particularly pronounced in former East Germany, but by 2030 most European countries will face a similar situation. The decrease of younger age groups requires an increase of blood donation rates and interdisciplinary approaches to reduce the need for transfusion to maintain sufficient blood supply. Demography is a major determinant of future transfusion demand. All efforts should be made by Western societies to systematically obtain data on blood donors and recipients to develop strategies to meet future blood demand. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

Can Evolution Supply What Ecology Demands?

PubMed

Kokko, Hanna; Chaturvedi, Anurag; Croll, Daniel; Fischer, Martin C; Guillaume, Frédéric; Karrenberg, Sophie; Kerr, Ben; Rolshausen, Gregor; Stapley, Jessica

2017-03-01

A simplistic view of the adaptive process pictures a hillside along which a population can climb: when ecological 'demands' change, evolution 'supplies' the variation needed for the population to climb to a new peak. Evolutionary ecologists point out that this simplistic view can be incomplete because the fitness landscape changes dynamically as the population evolves. Geneticists meanwhile have identified complexities relating to the nature of genetic variation and its architecture, and the importance of epigenetic variation is under debate. In this review, we highlight how complexity in both ecological 'demands' and the evolutionary 'supply' influences organisms' ability to climb fitness landscapes that themselves change dynamically as evolution proceeds, and encourage new synthetic effort across research disciplines towards ecologically realistic studies of adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Planning water supply under uncertainty - benefits and limitations of RDM, Info-Gap, economic optimization and many-objective optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matrosov, E.; Padula, S.; Huskova, I.; Harou, J. J.

2012-12-01

Population growth and the threat of drier or changed climates are likely to increase water scarcity world-wide. A combination of demand management (water conservation) and new supply infrastructure is often needed to meet future projected demands. In this case system planners must decide what to implement, when and at what capacity. Choices can range from infrastructure to policies or a mix of the two, culminating in a complex planning problem. Decision making under uncertainty frameworks can be used to help planners with this planning problem. This presentation introduces, applies and compares four decision making under uncertainty frameworks. The application is to the Thames basin water resource system which includes the city of London. The approaches covered here include least-economic cost capacity expansion optimization (EO), Robust Decision Making (RDM), Info-Gap Decision Theory (Info-gap) and many-objective evolutionary optimization (MOEO). EO searches for the least-economic cost program, i.e. the timing, sizing, and choice of supply-demand management actions/upgrades which meet projected water demands. Instead of striving for optimality, the RDM and Info-gap approaches help build plans that are robust to 'deep' uncertainty in future conditions. The MOEO framework considers multiple performance criteria and uses water systems simulators as a function evaluator for the evolutionary algorithm. Visualizations show Pareto approximate tradeoffs between multiple objectives. In this presentation we detail the application of each framework to the Thames basin (including London) water resource planning problem. Supply and demand options are proposed by the major water companies in the basin. We apply the EO method using a 29 year time horizon and an annual time step considering capital, operating (fixed and variable), social and environmental costs. The method considers all plausible combinations of supply and conservation schemes and capacities proposed by water companies and generates the least-economic cost annual plan. The RDM application uses stochastic simulation under a weekly time-step and regret analysis to choose a candidate strategy. We then use a statistical cluster algorithm to identify future states of the world under which the strategy is vulnerable. The method explicitly considers the effects of uncertainty in supply, demands and energy price on multiple performance criteria. The Info-gap approach produces robustness and opportuneness plots that show the performance of different plans under the most dire and favorable sets of future conditions. The same simulator, supply and demand options and uncertainties are considered as in the RDM application. The MOEO application considers many more combinations of supply and demand options while still employing a simulator that enables a more realistic representation of the physical system and operating rules. A computer cluster is employed to ease the computational burden. Visualization software allows decision makers to interactively view tradeoffs in many dimensions. Benefits and limitations of each framework are discussed and recommendations for future planning in the basin are provided.

Getting Help From Others: The Effects of Demand and Supply

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives. This article investigates whether the help with care needs that is received from others depends on the potential supply of family helpers. Methods. Data from the first round of survey data collected in the National Health and Aging Trends Study are used to create measures of whether help is received, the number of helpers, and the hours of help received. Regression analysis is used to relate these outcomes to indicators of the demand for and supply of helpers. Results. Analyses suggest limited evidence that the receipt of help is a supply-driven phenomenon. Although the measures of child–caregiver supply are not associated with a binary indicator of help received, caregiver-supply factors are associated with the number of helpers and the total hours of help received. Discussion. Findings on the total number of helpers and total hours of care have implications for the division of care labor within families and between families and nonfamily members. Foreseeable trends in the demand for and the supply of help suggest further evolution in patterns of elders’ receipt of help with care needs. Even if those with needs for care continue to have their needs addressed by one or more helpers, the number of helpers, and the aggregate amount of help they provide, is likely to undergo adjustment in response to changing family patterns. PMID:25342824

Using System Dynamic Model and Neural Network Model to Analyse Water Scarcity in Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Tang, C.; Xu, L.; Ye, S.

2017-07-01

Many parts of the world are facing the problem of Water Scarcity. Analysing Water Scarcity quantitatively is an important step to solve the problem. Water scarcity in a region is gauged by WSI (water scarcity index), which incorporate water supply and water demand. To get the WSI, Neural Network Model and SDM (System Dynamic Model) that depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand are developed to depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand. The uneven distribution of water resource and water demand across a region leads to an uneven distribution of WSI within this region. To predict WSI for the future, logistic model, Grey Prediction, and statistics are applied in predicting variables. Sudan suffers from severe water scarcity problem with WSI of 1 in 2014, water resource unevenly distributed. According to the result of modified model, after the intervention, Sudan’s water situation will become better.

Life cycle assessment of flexibly fed biogas processes for an improved demand-oriented biogas supply.

PubMed

Ertem, Funda Cansu; Martínez-Blanco, Julia; Finkbeiner, Matthias; Neubauer, Peter; Junne, Stefan

2016-11-01

This paper analyses concepts to facilitate a demand oriented biogas supply at an agricultural biogas plant of a capacity of 500kWhel, operated with the co-digestion of maize, grass, rye silage and chicken manure. In contrast to previous studies, environmental impacts of flexible and the traditional baseload operation are compared. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed to detect the environmental impacts of: (i) variety of feedstock co-digestion scenarios by substitution of maize and (ii) loading rate scenarios with a focus on flexible feedstock utilization. Demand-driven biogas production is critical for an overall balanced power supply to the electrical grid. It results in lower amounts of emissions; feedstock loading rate scenarios resulted in 48%, 20%, 11% lower global warming (GWP), acidification (AP) and eutrophication potentials, and a 16% higher cumulative energy demand. Substitution of maize with biogenic-waste regarding to feedstock substitution scenarios could create 10% lower GWP and AP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bulawayo water supplies: Sustainable alternatives for the next decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mkandla, Noel; Van der Zaag, Pieter; Sibanda, Peter

Bulawayo is the second largest city in Zimbabwe with a population of nearly one million people. It is located on the watershed of Umzingwane and Gwayi catchments. The former is part of the Limpopo basin, while the latter drains into the Zambezi basin. Bulawayo has a good potential of economic development but has been stymied by lack of sufficient water. The city currently relies on five surface sources in the Umzingwane catchment where it has to compete with evaporation. The well field from the Nyamandlovu aquifer in the Gwayi catchment, which was constructed as an emergency measure during the 1992 drought, is currently not operational. Alternative water supply sources are far and expensive. A multilinear regression model was developed to analyse and quantify the factors affecting water consumption. It was found that per capita water consumption is very low, indicating suppressed demand. Water rationing, tariffs, rainfall, population growth and gross domestic product are the main factors influencing water consumption in Bulawayo. Assuming that these factors will continue to be influential, future water consumption was projected for intensive, regular and slack water demand management. Future water consumption was then compared with the current water supply capacity in order to determine the date by which the next water supply source is required. With slack demand management, the Nyamandlovu well field should have been operational by 2003, while by the year 2007 an additional source of water is required. With intensive demand management and assuming low population growth, current capacities may suffice to satisfy the suppressed demand until the year 2015, by which time Nyamandlovu wells should be operational again. The additional water supply sources that are currently being considered for Bulawayo (namely the Zambezi water pipeline; Gwayi Shangani dam; Mtshabezi dam; Lower Tuli dam; and Glass block dam) were then compared with an alternative water source not yet contemplated, namely drawing groundwater from Umguza, part of the Nyamandlovu aquifer. The paper then provides details of the Umguza alternative, which was designed at pre-feasibility level by Mkandla [Mkandla, N., 2003. Bulawayo water supplies: Umguza well field as a sustainable alternative for the next decade. Unpublished M.Sc. WREM dissertation. University of Zimbabwe, Harare]. All alternative additional water supply sources were compared in terms of their Net Present Values. It was found that Umguza well field is the least-cost alternative to meet additional water demand. The Umguza alternative will be able to satisfy water demand for a period of six to ten years. Thereafter, the second least-cost alternative, namely Gwayi Shangani dam, must be on stream.

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

41 CFR 101-26.507-3 - Purchase of security equipment from Federal Supply Schedules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... the unforeseen demands for security equipment, Federal Supply Schedule contracts have been established... equipment from Federal Supply Schedules. 101-26.507-3 Section 101-26.507-3 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property Management Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND...

To give or sell human gametes--the interplay between pragmatics, policy and ethics.

PubMed

Daniels, K R

2000-06-01

The ever-growing acceptance and use of assisted human reproduction techniques has caused demand for "donated" sperm and eggs to outstrip supply. Medical professionals and others argue that monetary reward is the only way to recruit sufficient numbers of "donors". Is this a clash between pragmatics and policy/ethics? Where monetary payments are the norm, alternative recruitment strategies used successfully elsewhere may not have been considered, nor the negative consequences of commercialism on all participants thought through. Considerations leading some countries to ban the buying and selling of sperm, eggs and embryos are outlined and a case made that the collective welfare of all involved parties be the primary consideration in this, at times heated, debate.

Dynamics of a durable commodity market involving trade at disequilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panchuk, A.; Puu, T.

2018-05-01

The present work considers a simple model of a durable commodity market involving two agents who trade stocks of two different types. Stock commodities, in contrast to flow commodities, remain on the market from period to period and, consequently, there is neither unique demand function nor unique supply function exists. We also set up exact conditions for trade at disequilibrium, the issue being usually neglected, though a fact of reality. The induced iterative system has infinite number of fixed points and path dependent dynamics. We show that a typical orbit is either attracted to one of the fixed points or eventually sticks at a no-trade point. For the latter the stock distribution always remains the same while the price displays periodic or chaotic oscillations.

Mobility on Demand Operational Concept Report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-10

This operational concept report provides an overview of the Mobility on Demand (MOD) concept and its evolution, description of the MOD ecosystem in a supply and demand framework, and its stakeholders and enablers. Leveraging the MOD ecosystem framewo...

Efforts to monitor Global progress on individual and community demand for immunization: Development of definitions and indicators for the Global Vaccine Action Plan Strategic Objective 2.

PubMed

Hickler, Benjamin; MacDonald, Noni E; Senouci, Kamel; Schuh, Holly B

2017-06-16

The Second Strategic Objective of the Global Vaccine Action Plan, "individuals and communities understand the value of vaccines and demand immunization as both their right and responsibility", differs from the other five in that it does not focus on supply-side aspects of immunization programs but rather on public demand for vaccines and immunization services. This commentary summarizes the work (literature review, consultations with experts, and with potential users) and findings of the UNICEF/World Health Organization Strategic Objective 2 informal Working Group on Vaccine Demand, which developed a definition for demand and indicators related to Strategic Objective 2. Demand for vaccines and vaccination is a complex concept that is not external to supply systems but rather encompasses the interaction between human behaviors and system structure and dynamics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Supplement to the "Compendium of Occupational Profiles at the Skilled Blue- and White-collar Worker Level." Situations and Trends: Supply and Demand for Skilled Workers. CEDEFOP Panorama. Supplement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sellin, Burkart

A study examined the supply and demand for skilled workers in the following sectors throughout the member countries of the European Community: agriculture (including horticulture and forestry); food industry and trades; hotels, restaurants, and catering industry; tourism; transport; textile industry; textile clothing; leather; wood; building…

Cannabis Supply and Demand Reduction: Evidence from the ESPAD Study of Adolescents in 31 European Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bjarnason, Thoroddur; Steriu, Andreea; Kokkevi, Anna

2010-01-01

Aims: Most national drug policies target both the supply side and the demand side of illicit drug use. Although such policies are intended to affect individual choices, they by definition operate on a national level and cannot be evaluated solely on the basis of individual-level differences. This study aims to evaluate the impact of country-level…

Change in the southern U.S. water demand and supply over the next forty years

Treesearch

Steven C. McNulty; Ge Sun; Erika C. Cohen; Jennifer A. Moore Myers

2008-01-01

Water shortages are often considered a problem in the western United States, where water supply is limited compared to the eastern half of the country. However, periodic water shortages are also common in the southeastern United States due to high water demand and periodic drought. Southeastern U.S. municipalities spend billions of dollars to develop water storage...

Impact of parking supply and demand management on central business district (CBD) traffic congestion, transit performance measures and sustainable land use : a study of the impact of parking supply and demand management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-07-01

Parking is one of the thorniest problems facing local officials who wish to maintain the vitality of central business districts (CBD). Viewed in isolation, the solution often is seen as more parking, at least, and more free parking, if possible. But ...

In the Balance: Registered Nurse Supply and Demand, 1996. IES Report 315.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seccombe, I.; Smith, G.

A survey of 6,000 registered nurses in membership in the Royal College of Nursing across the United Kingdom examined some key factors that determined the supply of nurses. A study of the UK nursing labor market indicated that the number of registered nurses has remained more or less static since the late 1980s. Rising demand appeared to be met by…

Demand Continues to Exceed Supply of Courses in Los Rios Colleges: Fall 2004. Research Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beachler, Judith

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the number of college applicants who remained on wait lists in Fall 2002 through Fall 2004. It shows that demand continues to exceed the supply of courses offered by colleges in the Los Rios Community College District - American River College, Cosumnes River College, Folsom Lake College and Sacramento City…

Are We Facing a "Literacy Surplus" in the Workforces of the United States and Canada? Research Note.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sticht, Thomas G.

In the United States and Canada alike, expressions of concern over the fact that the demand for skilled workers far exceeds the current supply have been heard repeatedly. However, several studies would seem to indicate that, as familiar as these claims about the supply and demand for skilled workers may be, they are very contentious. If a Hudson…

Female sex work and international sport events - no major changes in demand or supply of paid sex during the 2010 Soccer World Cup: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Richter, Marlise; Luchters, Stanley; Ndlovu, Dudu; Temmerman, Marleen; Chersich, Matthew Francis

2012-09-11

Important unanswered questions remain on the impact of international sporting events on the sex industry. Speculation about increased demand and supply of sex work often generates significant attention, but also additional funding for HIV programmes. This study assessed whether changes occurred in the demand and supply of paid sex during the 2010 Soccer World Cup in South Africa. Trained sex worker interviewers conducted face-to-face semi-structured interviews among consenting female sex workers during May-September 2010. Using bivariate analyses we compared supply, demand, sexual risk-taking, and police and health services contact pre-World Cup, to levels during the World Cup and after the event. No increases were detected in indicators of sex work supply, including the proportion of sex workers newly arrived in the city (< 2.5% in each phase) or those recently entering the trade (≤ 1.5%). Similarly, demand for sex work, indicated by median number of clients (around 12 per week) and amount charged per transaction ($13) remained similar in the three study periods. Only a third of participants reported observing any change in the sex industry ascribed to the World Cup. Self-reported condom-use with clients remained high across all samples (> 92.4% in all phases). Health-care utilisation decreased non-significantly from the pre- to during World Cup period (62.4% to 57.0%; P = 0.075). Across all periods, about thirty percent of participants had interacted with police in the preceding month, two thirds of whom had negative interactions. Contrary to public opinion, no major increases were detected in the demand or supply of paid sex during the World Cup. Although the study design employed was unable to select population-based samples, these findings do not support the public concern and media speculation prior to the event, but rather signal a missed opportunity for public health action. Given the media attention on sex work, future sporting events offer strategic opportunities to implement services for sex workers and their clients, especially as health service utilisation might decrease in this period.

Female sex work and international sport events - no major changes in demand or supply of paid sex during the 2010 Soccer World Cup: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Important unanswered questions remain on the impact of international sporting events on the sex industry. Speculation about increased demand and supply of sex work often generates significant attention, but also additional funding for HIV programmes. This study assessed whether changes occurred in the demand and supply of paid sex during the 2010 Soccer World Cup in South Africa. Methods Trained sex worker interviewers conducted face-to-face semi-structured interviews among consenting female sex workers during May-September 2010. Using bivariate analyses we compared supply, demand, sexual risk-taking, and police and health services contact pre-World Cup, to levels during the World Cup and after the event. Results No increases were detected in indicators of sex work supply, including the proportion of sex workers newly arrived in the city (< 2.5% in each phase) or those recently entering the trade (≤ 1.5%). Similarly, demand for sex work, indicated by median number of clients (around 12 per week) and amount charged per transaction ($13) remained similar in the three study periods. Only a third of participants reported observing any change in the sex industry ascribed to the World Cup. Self-reported condom-use with clients remained high across all samples (> 92.4% in all phases). Health-care utilisation decreased non-significantly from the pre- to during World Cup period (62.4% to 57.0%; P = 0.075). Across all periods, about thirty percent of participants had interacted with police in the preceding month, two thirds of whom had negative interactions. Conclusions Contrary to public opinion, no major increases were detected in the demand or supply of paid sex during the World Cup. Although the study design employed was unable to select population-based samples, these findings do not support the public concern and media speculation prior to the event, but rather signal a missed opportunity for public health action. Given the media attention on sex work, future sporting events offer strategic opportunities to implement services for sex workers and their clients, especially as health service utilisation might decrease in this period. PMID:22967260

Water-Energy Nexus Challenges & Opportunities in the Arabian Peninsula under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores-Lopez, F.; Yates, D. N.; Galaitsi, S.; Binnington, T.; Dougherty, W.; Vinnaccia, M.; Glavan, J. C.

2016-12-01

Demand for water in the GCC countries relies mainly on fossil groundwater resources and desalination. Satisfying water demand requires a great deal of energy as it treats and moves water along the supply chain from sources, through treatment processes, and ultimately to the consumer. Hence, there is an inherent connection between water and energy and with climate change, the links between water and energy are expected to become even stronger. As part of AGEDI's Local, National, and Regional Climate Change Programme, a study of the water-energy nexus of the countries in the Arabian Peninsula was implemented. For water, WEAP models both water demand - and its main drivers - and water supply, simulating policies, priorities and preferences. For energy, LEAP models both energy supply and demand, and is able to capture the impacts of low carbon development strategies. A coupled WEAP-LEAP model was then used to evaluate the future performance of the energy-water system under climate change and policy scenarios. The coupled models required detailed data, which were obtained through literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders in the region. As part of this process, the outputs of both models were validated for historic periods using existing data The models examined 5 policy scenarios of different futures of resource management to the year 2060. A future under current management practices with current climate and a climate projection based on the RCP8.5; a High Efficiency scenario where each country gradually implements policies to reduce the consumption of water and electricity; a Natural Resource Protection scenario with resource efficiency and phasing out of groundwater extraction and drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage in favor of solar; and an Integrated Policy scenario that integrates the prior two policy scenarios Water demands can mostly be met in any scenario through supply combinations of groundwater, desalination and wastewater reuse, with some regional fossil groundwater basins draw to extinction by 2060. While the analysis includes both demand and supply oriented scenarios, the results of the analysis strongly suggest that the region will need to simultaneously purse demand and supply side policies to achieve more sustainable uses of water and energy into the second half of the 21st century.

Essays in market power mitigation and supply function equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramainam, Thiagarajah Natchie

Market power mitigation has been an integral part of wholesale electricity markets since deregulation. In wholesale electricity markets, different regions in the US take different approaches to regulating market power. While the exercise of market power has received considerable attention in the literature, the issue of market power mitigation has attracted scant attention. In the first chapter, I examine the market power mitigation rules used in New York ISO (Independent System Operator) and California ISO (CAISO) with respect to day-ahead and real-time energy markets. I test whether markups associated with New York in-city generators would be lower with an alternative approach to mitigation, the CAISO approach. Results indicate the difference in markups between these two mitigation rules is driven by the shape of residual demand curves for suppliers. Analysis of residual demand curves faced by New York in-city suppliers show similar markups under both mitigation rules when no one supplier is necessary to meet the demand (i.e., when no supplier is pivotal). However, when some supplier is crucial for the market to clear, the mitigation rule adopted by the NYISO consistently leads to higher markups than would the CAISO rule. This result suggest that market power episodes in New York is confined to periods where some supplier is pivotal. As a result, I find that applying the CAISOs' mitigation rules to the New York market could lower wholesale electricity prices by 18%. The second chapter of my dissertation focuses on supply function equilibrium. In power markets, suppliers submit offer curves in auctions, indicating their willingness to supply at different price levels. Although firms are allowed to submit different offer curves for different time periods, surprisingly many firms stick to a single offer curve for the entire day. This essentially means that firms are submitting a single offer curve for multiple demand realizations. A suitable framework to analyze such oligopolistic competition between power market suppliers is supply function equilibrium models. Using detailed bidding data, I develop equilibrium in supply functions by restricting supplier offers to a class of supply functions. By collating equilibrium supply functions corresponding to different realizations of demand, I obtain a single optimal supply function for the entire day. Then I compare the resulting supply function with actual day-ahead offers in New York. In addition to supply function equilibrium, I also develop a conservative bidding approach in which each firm assumes that rivals bid at marginal costs. Results show that the supply functions derived from equilibrium bidding model in this paper is not consistent with actual bidding in New York. This result is mainly driven by the class of supply functions used in this study to generate the equilibrium. Further, actual offers do not resemble offers generated by the conservative bidding algorithm.

42 CFR 84.163 - Man test for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... and without excessive wear of the moving parts. The demand or pressure-demand valve shall not be... a force of 90 kg. (200 pounds) is applied for 5 minutes between 2 planes 7.6 cm. (3 inches) wide on...

42 CFR 84.163 - Man test for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... and without excessive wear of the moving parts. The demand or pressure-demand valve shall not be... a force of 90 kg. (200 pounds) is applied for 5 minutes between 2 planes 7.6 cm. (3 inches) wide on...

42 CFR 84.163 - Man test for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... and without excessive wear of the moving parts. The demand or pressure-demand valve shall not be... a force of 90 kg. (200 pounds) is applied for 5 minutes between 2 planes 7.6 cm. (3 inches) wide on...

42 CFR 84.163 - Man test for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... and without excessive wear of the moving parts. The demand or pressure-demand valve shall not be... a force of 90 kg. (200 pounds) is applied for 5 minutes between 2 planes 7.6 cm. (3 inches) wide on...

Integration of three echelon supply chain (supplier-manufacturer-distributor-drop shipper) with permissible delay in payment and penalty contract

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, M. F.; Suparno

2018-04-01

Supply Chain Management (SCM) has to be considered in the company in order to improve the sustainability and competitiveness. SCM executed to integrating any companies on the supply chain in a way of coordinating the flow of goods, information, and financial. Permissible delay in payment is one of the coordination ways with allowing the costumers delay the payments to a vendor in some certain periods without any interest charges. In the supply chain system, drop-shipping player already familiar in this era. In drop-shipping internet retailing, the supplier will hold supplies and also carry out physical distribution service on behalf of drop-shipper. Drop-shipper will just focus on selling, on the other hand, their supplier will be responsible for the physical process. Generally, drop-shipper have information of the customer demands better than the distributor. But, it is also unrare when the drop-shipper send the estimation of demands which bigger than their own estimation in order to maximize their own interest, so they hope supplies of the distributor will always enough to accommodate their demands. Contributions in this research will be focused on integration of three echelons supply chain, which are the supplier, manufacturer, distributor, and drop-shipper. With considering delay in payment on first and second echelons, and also the contract penalty on third echelon. The problem on this research will be modeled in some kind of cases which can represent the problem of real supply chain system. Sensitivity analysis will be done on certain significant variables toward the changes of total supply chain cost. Coordination with delay in payment success to integrate supply chain. Contract penalty plan success to maintain the profit of distributor and drop-shipper.

Liberian macroeconomy and simulation of sectoral energy demand: 1981-2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hill, L.J.

1984-06-01

The primary purpose of this report is to document the results of a research effort on end-use, sector energy demand in Liberia, West Africa over the 1981-2000 time horizon. The research was undertaken as one component of a much broader integrated energy assessment of Liberia. Other components of the assessment, however, focused on current energy supply and consumption together with future energy supply options for Liberia. This particular report is devoted exclusively to a discussion of Liberian energy demand. The methodology utilized to simulate Liberian sectoral energy demand over the period 1981-2000 involved the recursive interaction of a macroeconomic modelmore » and individual, econometrically-estimated sectoral demand equations. That is, given the projections for gross output in the Liberian economy from the macroeconomic model, sectoral energy demand was simulated. The individual energy demand equations were estimated on the basis of economic variables that are theorized to influence energy consumption in the respective sectors (e.g., price, output). The primary conclusion drawn from the analysis is that, besides being sensitive to changes in international economic activity, the demand for energy in Liberia over the 1981 to 2000 horizon is highly sensitive to internal production of its two primary exports: iron ore and rubber. More specifically, as characterized in the four scenarios, future growth in Liberian energy demand is contingent on the output of three companies: the Liberian American Swedish Mining Company, the Bong Mining Company, and the Firestone Rubber Company. Therefore, expansion of Liberia's energy supply capacity in the future should proceed cautiously. 16 references, 6 figures, 15 tables.« less

Glucose consumption of inflammatory cells masks metabolic deficits in the brain.

PubMed

Backes, Heiko; Walberer, Maureen; Ladwig, Anne; Rueger, Maria A; Neumaier, Bernd; Endepols, Heike; Hoehn, Mathias; Fink, Gereon R; Schroeter, Michael; Graf, Rudolf

2016-03-01

Inflammatory cells such as microglia need energy to exert their functions and to maintain their cellular integrity and membrane potential. Subsequent to cerebral ischemia, inflammatory cells infiltrate tissue with limited blood flow where neurons and astrocytes died due to insufficient supply with oxygen and glucose. Using dual tracer positron emission tomography (PET), we found that concomitant with the presence of inflammatory cells, transport and consumption of glucose increased up to normal levels but returned to pathological levels as soon as inflammatory cells disappeared. Thus, inflammatory cells established sufficient glucose supply to satisfy their energy demands even in regions with insufficient supply for neurons and astrocytes to survive. Our data suggest that neurons and astrocytes died from oxygen deficiency and inflammatory cells metabolized glucose non-oxidatively in regions with residual availability. As a consequence, glucose metabolism of inflammatory cells can mask metabolic deficits in neurodegenerative diseases. We further found that the PET tracer did not bind to inflammatory cells in severely hypoperfused regions and thus only a part of the inflammation was detected. We conclude that glucose consumption of inflammatory cells should be taken into account when analyzing disease-related alterations of local cerebral metabolism. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

PubMed

Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

2014-02-01

Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

Nuclear fuels policy. Report of the Atlantic Council's Nuclear Fuels Policy Working Group

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1976-01-01

This Policy Paper recommends the actions deemed necessary to assure that future U.S. and non-Communist countries' nuclear fuels supply will be adequate, considering the following: estimates of modest growth in overall energy demand, electrical energy demand, and nuclear electrical energy demand in the U.S. and abroad, predicated upon the continuing trends involving conservation of energy, increased use of electricity, and moderate economic growth (Chap. I); possibilities for the development and use of all domestic resources providing energy alternatives to imported oil and gas, consonant with current environmental, health, and safety concerns (Chap. II); assessment of the traditional energy sources whichmore » provide current alternatives to nuclear energy (Chap. II); evaluation of realistic expectations for additional future energy supplies from prospective technologies: enhanced recovery from traditional sources and development and use of oil shales and synthetic fuels from coal, fusion and solar energy (Chap. II); an accounting of established nuclear technology in use today, in particular the light water reactor, used for generating electricity (Chap. III); an estimate of future nuclear technology, in particular the prospective fast breeder (Chap. IV); current and projected nuclear fuel demand and supply in the U.S. and abroad (Chaps. V and VI); the constraints encountered today in meeting nuclear fuels demand (Chap. VII); and the major unresolved issues and options in nuclear fuels supply and use (Chap. VIII). The principal conclusions and recommendations (Chap. IX) are that the U.S. and other industrialized countries should strive for increased flexibility of primary energy fuel sources, and that a balanced energy strategy therefore depends on the secure supply of energy resources and the ability to substitute one form of fuel for another.« less

Supply and demand: How does variation in atmospheric oxygen during development affect insect tracheal and mitochondrial networks?

PubMed

VandenBrooks, John M; Gstrein, Gregory; Harmon, Jason; Friedman, Jessica; Olsen, Matthew; Ward, Anna; Parker, Gregory

2018-04-01

Atmospheric oxygen is one of the most important atmospheric component for all terrestrial organisms. Variation in atmospheric oxygen has wide ranging effects on animal physiology, development, and evolution. This variation in oxygen has the potential to affect both respiratory systems (the supply side) and mitochondrial networks (the demand side) in animals. Insect respiratory systems supplying oxygen to tissues in the gas phase through blind ended tracheal systems are particularly susceptible to this variation. While the large conducting tracheae have previously been shown to respond developmentally to changes in rearing oxygen, the effect of oxygen on the tracheolar network has been relatively unexplored, especially in adult insects. Similarly, mitochondrial networks that meet energy demand in insects and other animals are dynamic and their enzyme activities have been shown to vary in the presence of oxygen. These two systems together should be under selective pressure to meet the aerobic metabolic requirements of insects. To test this hypothesis, we reared Mito-YFP Drosophila under three different oxygen concentrations hypoxia (12%), normoxia (21%), and hyperoxia (31%) and imaged their tracheolar and mitochondrial networks within their flight muscle using confocal microscopy. In terms of oxygen supply, hypoxia increased mean (mid-length) tracheolar diameters, tracheolar tip diameters, the number of tracheoles per main branch and affected tracheal branching patterns, while the opposite was observed in hyperoxia. In terms of oxygen demand, hypoxia increased mitochondrial investment and mitochondrial to tracheolar volume ratios; while the opposite was observed in hyperoxia. Generally, hypoxia had a stronger effect on both systems than hyperoxia. These results show that insects are capable of developmentally changing investment in both their supply and demand networks to increase overall fitness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tissue oxygen demand in regulation of the behavior of the cells in the vasculature.

PubMed

Barvitenko, Nadezhda N; Aslam, Muhammad; Filosa, Jessica; Matteucci, Elena; Nikinmaa, Mikko; Pantaleo, Antonella; Saldanha, Carlota; Baskurt, Oguz K

2013-08-01

The control of arteriolar diameters in microvasculature has been in the focus of studies on mechanisms matching oxygen demand and supply at the tissue level. Functionally, important vascular elements include EC, VSMC, and RBC. Integration of these different cell types into functional units aimed at matching tissue oxygen supply with tissue oxygen demand is only achieved when all these cells can respond to the signals of tissue oxygen demand. Many vasoactive agents that serve as signals of tissue oxygen demand have their receptors on all these types of cells (VSMC, EC, and RBC) implying that there can be a coordinated regulation of their behavior by the tissue oxygen demand. Such functions of RBC as oxygen carrying by Hb, rheology, and release of vasoactive agents are considered. Several common extra- and intracellular signaling pathways that link tissue oxygen demand with control of VSMC contractility, EC permeability, and RBC functioning are discussed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Joint Real-Time Energy and Demand-Response Management using a Hybrid Coalitional-Noncooperative Game

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Fulin; Gu, Yi; Hao, Jun

In order to model the interactions among utility companies, building demands and renewable energy generators (REGs), a hybrid coalitional-noncooperative game framework has been proposed. We formulate a dynamic non-cooperative game to study the energy dispatch within multiple utility companies, while we take a coalitional perspective on REGs and buildings demands through a hedonic coalition formation game approach. In this case, building demands request different power supply from REGs, then the building demands can be organized into an ultimate coalition structure through a distributed hedonic shift algorithm. At the same time, utility companies can also obtain a stable power generation profile.more » In addition, the interactive progress among the utility companies and building demands which cannot be supplied by REGs is implemented by distributed game theoretic algorithms. Numerical results illustrate that the proposed hybrid coalitional-noncooperative game scheme reduces the cost of both building demands and utility companies compared with the initial scene.« less

Questioning the sustainable palm oil demand: case study from French-Indonesia supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalil, D.; Barus, R.

2018-02-01

Sustainable palm oil has been widely debated. Consuming countries insist certified sustainable produces palm oil, but in fact the absorption of the certified palm oil is still less than 60%. This raise questions about the sustainable palm oil demand. In this study, such a condition will be analysed in French-Indonesia supply chain case. Using monthly and quarterly data from 2010 to 2016 with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model, demand influencing factors and price integration in each market of the supply chain is estimated. Two scenarios namely re-export and direct export models are considered in the Error Correction Model. The results show that France Gross Domestic Product, prices of France palm oil import from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Germany, and price of France groundnut import significantly influence the France palm oil import volume from Indonesia. Prices in each market along palm oil re-export France-Indonesia supply chain are co-integrated and converge towards long-run equilibrium, but not in the direct export supply chain. This leads to a conclusion that France market preferences in specific and EU market preferences in general need to be considered by Indonesian palm oil decision makers.

The structure of the market for physicians' services.

PubMed Central

McLean, R A

1980-01-01

In this paper, structural equations for the supply of and the demand for general practitioners' services are derived. Two variants of the model, based on alternative specifications of the role of health insurance, are tested, using data drawn from the American Medical Association's Eighth Periodic Survey of Physicians (PSP8). While results of the estimation require the rejection of the hypothesis that the market for general practitioners' service is perfectly competitive, the elasticities of demand implied are quite high. Estimates of the supply relationships support the presence of "backward bending" supplies of physicians' services, but this finding should be interpreted cautiously. PMID:7204064

Research on Coordination of Fresh Produce Supply Chain in Big Market Sales Environment

PubMed Central

Su, Juning; Liu, Chenguang

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose two decision models for decentralized and centralized fresh produce supply chains with stochastic supply and demand and controllable transportation time. The optimal order quantity and the optimal transportation time in these two supply chain systems are derived. To improve profits in a decentralized supply chain, based on analyzing the risk taken by each participant in the supply chain, we design a set of contracts which can coordinate this type of fresh produce supply chain with stochastic supply and stochastic demand, and controllable transportation time as well. We also obtain a value range of contract parameters that can increase profits of all participants in the decentralized supply chain. The expected profits of the decentralized setting and the centralized setting are compared with respect to given numerical examples. Furthermore, the sensitivity analyses of the deterioration rate factor and the freshness factor are performed. The results of numerical examples show that the transportation time is shorter, the order quantity is smaller, the total profit of whole supply chain is less, and the possibility of cooperation between supplier and retailer is higher for the fresh produce which is more perishable and its quality decays more quickly. PMID:24764770

Research on coordination of fresh produce supply chain in big market sales environment.

PubMed

Su, Juning; Wu, Jiebing; Liu, Chenguang

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose two decision models for decentralized and centralized fresh produce supply chains with stochastic supply and demand and controllable transportation time. The optimal order quantity and the optimal transportation time in these two supply chain systems are derived. To improve profits in a decentralized supply chain, based on analyzing the risk taken by each participant in the supply chain, we design a set of contracts which can coordinate this type of fresh produce supply chain with stochastic supply and stochastic demand, and controllable transportation time as well. We also obtain a value range of contract parameters that can increase profits of all participants in the decentralized supply chain. The expected profits of the decentralized setting and the centralized setting are compared with respect to given numerical examples. Furthermore, the sensitivity analyses of the deterioration rate factor and the freshness factor are performed. The results of numerical examples show that the transportation time is shorter, the order quantity is smaller, the total profit of whole supply chain is less, and the possibility of cooperation between supplier and retailer is higher for the fresh produce which is more perishable and its quality decays more quickly.

Global demand for rare earth resources and strategies for green mining

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dutta, Tanushree

Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential raw materials for emerging renewable energy resources and ‘smart’ electronic devices. Global REE demand is slated to grow at an annual rate of 5% by 2020. This high growth rate will require a steady supply base of REEs in the long run. At present, China is responsible for 85% of global rare earth oxide (REO) production. To overcome this monopolistic supply situation, new strategies and investments are necessary to satisfy domestic supply demands. Concurrently, environmental, economic, and social problems arising from REE mining must be addressed. There is an urgent need to develop efficientmore » REE recycling techniques from end-of-life products, technologies to minimize the amount of REEs required per unit device, and methods to recover them from fly ash or fossil fuel-burning wastes.« less

Global demand for rare earth resources and strategies for green mining.

PubMed

Dutta, Tanushree; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Uchimiya, Minori; Kwon, Eilhann E; Jeon, Byong-Hun; Deep, Akash; Yun, Seong-Taek

2016-10-01

Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential raw materials for emerging renewable energy resources and 'smart' electronic devices. Global REE demand is slated to grow at an annual rate of 5% by 2020. This high growth rate will require a steady supply base of REEs in the long run. At present, China is responsible for 85% of global rare earth oxide (REO) production. To overcome this monopolistic supply situation, new strategies and investments are necessary to satisfy domestic supply demands. Concurrently, environmental, economic, and social problems arising from REE mining must be addressed. There is an urgent need to develop efficient REE recycling techniques from end-of-life products, technologies to minimize the amount of REEs required per unit device, and methods to recover them from fly ash or fossil fuel-burning wastes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-01-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS data base). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-10-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-12-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Neo-classical theory of competition or Adam Smith's hand as mathematized ideology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2001-10-01

Orthodox economic theory (utility maximization, rational agents, efficient markets in equilibrium) is based on arbitrarily postulated, nonempiric notions. The disagreement between economic reality and a key feature of neo-classical economic theory was criticized empirically by Osborne. I show that the orthodox theory is internally self-inconsistent for the very reason suggested by Osborne: lack of invertibility of demand and supply as functions of price to obtain price as functions of supply and demand. The reason for the noninvertibililty arises from nonintegrable excess demand dynamics, a feature of their theory completely ignored by economists.

Public-private sector interactions and the demand for supplementary health insurance in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Bíró, Anikó; Hellowell, Mark

2016-07-01

We examine the demand for private health insurance (PHI) in the United Kingdom and relate this to changes in the supply of public and private healthcare. Using a novel collection of administrative, private sector and survey data, we re-assess the relationships between the quality and availability of public and private sector inpatient care, and the demand for PHI. We find that PHI coverage in the United Kingdom is positively related to the median of the region- and year-specific public sector waiting times. We find that PHI prevalence ceteris paribus increases with being self-employed and employed, while it decreases with having financial difficulties. In addition, we highlight the complexities of inter-sectoral relations and their impact on PHI demand. Within a region, we find that an increase in private healthcare supply is associated with a decrease in public sector waiting times, implying lower PHI demand. This may be explained by the usage of private facilities by NHS commissioners. These results have important implications for policymakers interested in the role of private healthcare supply in enhancing the availability of and equitable access to acute inpatient care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal crop selection and water allocation under limited water supply in irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stange, Peter; Grießbach, Ulrike; Schütze, Niels

2015-04-01

Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions such as droughts may have an increasing impact on irrigated agriculture. To cope with limited water resources in irrigation systems, a new decision support framework is developed which focuses on an integrated management of both irrigation water supply and demand at the same time. For modeling the regional water demand, local (and site-specific) water demand functions are used which are derived from optimized agronomic response on farms scale. To account for climate variability the agronomic response is represented by stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF). These functions take into account different soil types, crops and stochastically generated climate scenarios. The SCWPF's are used to compute the water demand considering different conditions, e.g., variable and fixed costs. This generic approach enables the consideration of both multiple crops at farm scale as well as of the aggregated response to water pricing at a regional scale for full and deficit irrigation systems. Within the SAPHIR (SAxonian Platform for High Performance IRrigation) project a prototype of a decision support system is developed which helps to evaluate combined water supply and demand management policies.

Marketing alternatives for hospitals to the nursing crisis.

PubMed

Goldman, R L; Bates, D P; Bradbury, M; Breaux, D K; Caron, M; Gerardo, C; Copoulos, S; Hansen, L L; Oien, S M; Semones, C

1990-01-01

The current nursing shortage problem as defined in this article, is the result of a supply and demand imbalance. The demand for nurses is growing at a faster rate than the supply. If strategies are not implemented to correct this imbalance the demand for nurses will continue to surpass the supply, negatively affecting access to and delivery of quality patient care. Factors contributing to the increased demand for nurses and the dwindling supply must be examined if solutions to the problem are to be found and implemented. Factors contributing to the growing demand for nurses include the decreasing use of ancillary personnel by hospitals in an effort to tighten their budgets; the impact of Medicare's prospective payment system on hospital lengths of stay; the increase in patient acuity with advances in medical technology; and alternative health care opportunities pulling nurses away from the hospital setting. The supply of RNs is shrinking in relation to demand because of low retention rates; declining nursing school enrollment; non-competitive wages; poor working conditions; alternative career opportunities for women; and the lack of power and support within the nursing profession. An active marketing approach that relies on this assessment of contributing factors has been formulated in an attempt to resolve the problem and meet the increasing demand. Recommendations have been made and ranked in the order of their priority and pros and cons established for each. The strategies developed have been divided into four basic marketing categories of product, price, place, and promotion. If the problem is to be resolved these strategies must be marketed to hospitals, their administrators, nurses, other allied health professionals, third party payors, educators, and the general public. The nursing profession itself must find the unity and strength within its own group of professionals to build political and economic powers to enhance their product. Nursing is at a crossroad. Much depends on how we cope with the current shortage and its related issues. Nurses have the opportunity to shape their future. Hopefully, with proactive strategies, the profession will transform from a passive role to an active, vital force of the health care environment. The authors believe that through our marketing approaches this can be accomplished.

Scientific Challenges in Sustainable Energy Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Nathan

2006-03-01

This presentation will describe and evaluate the challenges, both technical, political, and economic, involved with widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies. First, we estimate the available fossil fuel resources and reserves based on data from the World Energy Assessment and World Energy Council. In conjunction with the current and projected global primary power production rates, we then estimate the remaining years of supply of oil, gas, and coal for use in primary power production. We then compare the price per unit of energy of these sources to those of renewable energy technologies (wind, solar thermal, solar electric, biomass, hydroelectric, and geothermal) to evaluate the degree to which supply/demand forces stimulate a transition to renewable energy technologies in the next 20-50 years. Secondly, we evaluate the greenhouse gas buildup limitations on carbon-based power consumption as an unpriced externality to fossil-fuel consumption, considering global population growth, increased global gross domestic product, and increased energy efficiency per unit of globally averaged GDP, as produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A greenhouse gas constraint on total carbon emissions, in conjunction with global population growth, is projected to drive the demand for carbon-free power well beyond that produced by conventional supply/demand pricing tradeoffs, at potentially daunting levels relative to current renewable energy demand levels. Thirdly, we evaluate the level and timescale of R&D investment that is needed to produce the required quantity of carbon-free power by the 2050 timeframe, to support the expected global energy demand for carbon-free power. Fourth, we evaluate the energy potential of various renewable energy resources to ascertain which resources are adequately available globally to support the projected global carbon-free energy demand requirements. Fifth, we evaluate the challenges to the chemical sciences to enable the cost-effective production of carbon-free power on the needed scale by the 2050 timeframe. Finally, we discuss the effects of a change in primary power technology on the energy supply infrastructure and discuss the impact of such a change on the modes of energy consumption by the energy consumer and additional demands on the chemical sciences to support such a transition in energy supply.

Towards 50% wind electricity in Denmark: Dilemmas and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bach, Paul-Frederik

2016-05-01

Electricity and heat supply systems are essential contributors to a fossil-free future in Denmark. The combined production of heat and power (CHP) and the production of wind energy are already well developed in Denmark. Combined heat and power covers about 40% of the demand for space heating in Denmark, and the production of wind energy is supposed to exceed 50% of the demand for electricity by 2020. The changing electricity and heat production has some consequences already now: i) Decreasing wholesale prices in Denmark and in other countries. ii) Thermal power plants are closing down. Denmark is no longer self-sufficient with electricity under all conditions. iii) The electricity production pattern does not match the demand pattern. The result is that the neighbouring countries must absorb the variations from wind and solar power. Essential challenges: i) The future of combined heat and power in Denmark is uncertain. ii) Denmark will need new backup capacity for filling the gaps in wind power and solar cell output. iii) Flexible electricity consumers are supposed to contribute to balancing the future power systems. There is still a long way to go before the Smart Grid visions are implemented in large scale. iv) The transformation of the power system will create new risks of power failures.

The (Possibly Negative) Effects of Physical Activity on Executive Functions: Implications of the Changing Metabolic Costs of Brain Development.

PubMed

Howard, Steven J; Cook, Caylee J; Said-Mohamed, Rihlat; Norris, Shane A; Draper, Catherine E

2016-09-01

An area of growth in physical activity research has involved investigating effects of physical activity on children's executive functions. Many of these efforts seek to increase the energy expenditure of young children as a healthy and low-cost way to affect physical, health, and cognitive outcomes. We review theory and research from neuroscience and evolutionary biology, which suggest that interventions seeking to increase the energy expenditure of young children must also consider the energetic trade-offs that occur to accommodate changing metabolic costs of brain development. According to Life History Theory, and supported by recent evidence, the high relative energy-cost of early brain development requires that other energy-demanding functions of development (ie, physical growth, activity) be curtailed. This is important for interventions seeking to dramatically increase the energy expenditure of young children who have little excess energy available, with potentially negative cognitive consequences. Less energy-demanding physical activities, in contrast, may yield psychosocial and cognitive benefits while not overburdening an underweight child's already scarce energy supply. While further research is required to establish the extent to which increases in energy-demanding physical activities may compromise or displace energy available for brain development, we argue that action cannot await these findings.

Water use demand in the Crans-Montana-Sierre region (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonriposi, M.; Reynard, E.

2012-04-01

Crans-Montana-Sierre is an Alpine touristic region located in the driest area of Switzerland (Rhone River Valley, Canton of Valais), with both winter (ski) and summer (e.g. golf) tourist activities. Climate change as well as societal and economic development will in future significantly modify the supply and consumption of water and, consequently, may fuel conflicts of interest. Within the framework of the MontanAqua project (www.montanaqua.ch), we are researching more sustainable water management options based on the co-ordination and adaptation of water demand to water availability under changing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. This work intends to quantify current water uses in the area and consider future scenarios (around 2050). We have focused upon the temporal and spatial characteristics of resource demand, in order to estimate the spatial footprint of water use (drinking water, hydropower production, irrigation and artificial snowmaking), in terms of system, infrastructure, and organisation of supply. We have then quantified these as precisely as possible (at the monthly temporal scale and at the municipality spatial scale). When the quantity of water was not measurable for practical reasons or for lack of data, as for the case for irrigation or snowmaking, an alternative approach was applied. Instead of quantifying how much water was used, the stress was put on the water needs for irrigating agricultural land or on the optimal meteorological conditions necessary to produce artificial snow. A huge summer peak and a smaller winter peak characterize the current regional water consumption estimation. The summer peak is mainly caused by irrigation and secondly by drinking water demand. The winter peak is essentially due to drinking water and snowmaking. Other consumption peaks exist at the municipality scale but they cannot be observed at the regional scale. The results show a major variation in water demand between the 11 concerned municipalities and between the various uses. All this confirms the necessity of modelling the future demand of water, which would allow prediction of possible future use conflicts. In a second phase of the project, the collected data will be introduced into WEAP (the Water Evaluation And Planning system) model, in order to estimate the future water demand of the Crans-Montana-Sierre region. This hydrologic model is distinct from most similar models because of its ability to integrate climate and socio-economic scenarios (Hansen, 1994). Reference Hansen, E. 1994. WEAP - A system for tackling water resource problems. In Water Management Europe 1993/94: An Annual Review of the European Water and Wastewater Industry. Stockholm Environment Institute: Stockholm.

An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand.

PubMed

Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen; Crawford, James M; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B; Wheeler, Thomas M; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B; Robboy, Stanley J

2015-01-01

Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2014-05-01

Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

PubMed Central

Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

2015-01-01

Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751