Large-Scale Water Resources Management within the Framework of GLOWA-Danube - Part B: The Water Supply Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickel, D.; Barthel, R.; Schmid, C.; Braun, J.

2003-04-01

The research project GLOWA-Danube, financed by the German Federal Government, investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global climatic change. Its concrete aim is to build a fully integrated decision support tool that combines the competence of eleven different institutes in domains covering all major aspects governing the water cycle - from the formation of clouds to groundwater flow patterns to the behaviour of the water consumer. The research group "Water Supply" at the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering (IWS), Universitaet Stuttgart, has the central task of creating an agent-based model of the water supply sector. The Water Supply model will act as a link between the various physical models determining water quality and availability on the one hand and the actors models determining water demand on the other, which together form the tool DANUBIA. Ultimately, with the help of scenario testing, the water supply model will indicate the ability of the water supply system in the Upper Danube catchment to adapt to changing boundary conditions using different management approaches. The specific aim of the Water Supply model is the creation of a model which is not only able to simulate the present day system of water extraction, treatment and distribution but also its development and change with time. As most changes to the system are brought about by decisions made by relevant actors in the field of water management or their behaviour (in response to political and economic boundary conditions, changes in water demand or water quality, advances in technology etc.), the use of agent-based modelling was chosen, whereby an agent is seen as a computer system (in our case representing a human or group of humans) which is aware of its environment, has defined objectives and is able to act independently in order to meet these objectives. Whereas agent-based modelling has received much attention over the past decades, the use of this type of modelling for water supply systems is something very new. The initial step is the development of a conceptual water supply model (using JAVA), in which both the model boundaries and area of expertise as well as parameters to be exchanged between the Water Supply model and other models are defined. The data required to create model for such a large area is not available from the authorities, common interest organisations or in the public statistics. In order to gain access to more specific information regarding individual water supply companies, the Water Supply group is currently carrying out a wide-spread questionnaire addressed to all water supply companies in the GLOWA-Danube model area - well over 1000 in total in Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Austria and Switzerland. The questionnaire contains questions pertaining to the two distinct fields, "economics and pricing" and "technical aspects", and aims at gathering information regarding the present day situation of the water supply system, the developments over the past 10 years as well as planned developments for the immediate future. Later, the focus will shift towards the stakeholders from the field of water resources management. A catalogue of decision-making rules will be prepared as a basis for discussion and will be debated with the relevant stakeholders. These rules will provide the basis for decision-making algorithms which will allow model agents to respond to their environment, communicate with one anther and behave in a goal-oriented manner to bring about change in the water supply system in response to changing conditions with regard to the climate, water quality, political and social boundary conditions, and changing demand.

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law

PubMed Central

Painter, Page R

2005-01-01

Background Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent α in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). Methods The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Results Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. Conclusion The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate. PMID:16283939

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law.

PubMed

Painter, Page R

2005-11-10

Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent alpha in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

Modeling relief demands in an emergency supply chain system under large-scale disasters based on a queuing network.

PubMed

He, Xinhua; Hu, Wenfa

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model.

Modeling Relief Demands in an Emergency Supply Chain System under Large-Scale Disasters Based on a Queuing Network

PubMed Central

He, Xinhua

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model. PMID:24688367

Development of an integrated medical supply information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Eric; Wermus, Marek; Blythe Bauman, Deborah

2011-08-01

The integrated medical supply inventory control system introduced in this study is a hybrid system that is shaped by the nature of medical supply, usage and storage capacity limitations of health care facilities. The system links demand, service provided at the clinic, health care service provider's information, inventory storage data and decision support tools into an integrated information system. ABC analysis method, economic order quantity model, two-bin method and safety stock concept are applied as decision support models to tackle inventory management issues at health care facilities. In the decision support module, each medical item and storage location has been scrutinised to determine the best-fit inventory control policy. The pilot case study demonstrates that the integrated medical supply information system holds several advantages for inventory managers, since it entails benefits of deploying enterprise information systems to manage medical supply and better patient services.

Modelling the EDLC-based Power Supply Module for a Maneuvering System of a Nanosatellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumarin, A. A.; Kudryavtsev, I. A.

2018-01-01

The development of the model of the power supply module of a maneuvering system of a nanosatellite is described. The module is based on an EDLC battery as an energy buffer. The EDLC choice is described. Experiments are conducted to provide data for model. Simulation of the power supply module is made for charging and discharging of the battery processes. The difference between simulation and experiment does not exceed 0.5% for charging and 10% for discharging. The developed model can be used in early design and to adjust charger and load parameters. The model can be expanded to represent the entire power system.

The equine antitoxins supply system for biological poisons in Japan.

PubMed

Nakai, Kiyohito; Takahashi, Motohide; Tomita, Motowo

2003-10-01

Recently, the equine antitoxin supply in Japan has sharply decreased; then it is apparent that a stable supply produced solely by private industry cannot be relied upon. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW), therefore, purchases vaccines and equine antitoxins from manufacturers who could not otherwise independently provide an adequate antitoxin supply to hospitals. This supply system is called the 'Kokuyu vaccine system.' Under this system, MHLW purchases, stores and distributes vaccines and antitoxins to hospitals. This system has worked efficiently and effectively so far and may be a good model for establishing a stable antitoxin supply system in other countries.

Model simulation of the Manasquan water-supply system in Monmouth County, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Ming; Tasker, Gary D.; Nieswand, Steven

2001-01-01

Model simulation of the Manasquan Water Supply System in Monmouth County, New Jersey, was completed using historic hydrologic data to evaluate the effects of operational and withdrawal alternatives on the Manasquan reservoir and pumping system. Changes in the system operations can be simulated with the model using precipitation forecasts. The Manasquan Reservoir system model operates by using daily streamflow values, which were reconstructed from historical U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station records. The model is able to run in two modes--General Risk analysis Model (GRAM) and Position Analysis Model (POSA). The GRAM simulation procedure uses reconstructed historical streamflow records to provide probability estimates of certain events, such as reservoir storage levels declining below a specific level, when given an assumed set of operating rules and withdrawal rates. POSA can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as streamflows falling below statutory passing flows, associated with a specific working plan for the water-supply system over a period of months. The user can manipulate the model and generate graphs and tables of streamflows and storage, for example. This model can be used as a management tool to facilitate the development of drought warning and drought emergency rule curves and safe yield values for the water-supply system.

A new digital pulse power supply in heavy ion research facility in Lanzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rongkun; Chen, Youxin; Huang, Yuzhen; Gao, Daqing; Zhou, Zhongzu; Yan, Huaihai; Zhao, Jiang; Shi, Chunfeng; Wu, Fengjun; Yan, Hongbin; Xia, Jiawen; Yuan, Youjin

2013-11-01

To meet the increasing requirements of the Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou-Cooler Storage Ring (HIRFL-CSR), a new digital pulse power supply, which employs multi-level converter, was designed. This power supply was applied with a multi H-bridge converters series-parallel connection topology. A new control model named digital power supply regulator system (DPSRS) was proposed, and a pulse power supply prototype based on DPSRS has been built and tested. The experimental results indicate that tracking error and ripple current meet the requirements of this design. The achievement of prototype provides a perfect model for HIRFL-CSR power supply system.

Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus.

PubMed

Taliotis, Constantinos; Taibi, Emanuele; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Bazilian, Morgan; Welsch, Manuel

2017-10-01

The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

Transportation and dynamic networks: Models, theory, and applications to supply chains, electric power, and financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zugang

Network systems, including transportation and logistic systems, electric power generation and distribution networks as well as financial networks, provide the critical infrastructure for the functioning of our societies and economies. The understanding of the dynamic behavior of such systems is also crucial to national security and prosperity. The identification of new connections between distinct network systems is the inspiration for the research in this dissertation. In particular, I answer two questions raised by Beckmann, McGuire, and Winsten (1956) and Copeland (1952) over half a century ago, which are, respectively, how are electric power flows related to transportation flows and does money flow like water or electricity? In addition, in this dissertation, I achieve the following: (1) I establish the relationships between transportation networks and three other classes of complex network systems: supply chain networks, electric power generation and transmission networks, and financial networks with intermediation. The establishment of such connections provides novel theoretical insights as well as new pricing mechanisms, and efficient computational methods. (2) I develop new modeling frameworks based on evolutionary variational inequality theory that capture the dynamics of such network systems in terms of the time-varying flows and incurred costs, prices, and, where applicable, profits. This dissertation studies the dynamics of such network systems by addressing both internal competition and/or cooperation, and external changes, such as varying costs and demands. (3) I focus, in depth, on electric power supply chains. By exploiting the relationships between transportation networks and electric power supply chains, I develop a large-scale network model that integrates electric power supply chains and fuel supply markets. The model captures both the economic transactions as well as the physical transmission constraints. The model is then applied to the New England electric power supply chain consisting of 6 states, 5 fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand markets. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electricity prices simulated by the model match very well the actual electricity prices in New England. I also utilize the model to study interactions between electric power supply chains and energy fuel markets.

Optimization of urban water supply portfolios combining infrastructure capacity expansion and water use decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Marques, G.; Mendes, C. A.

2015-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under rapidly growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty, and scarce water supplies requires a strategic combination of various supply sources for added reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources merits decisions of what and when to expand, and how much to use of each available sources accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. The present research provides a framework and an integrated methodology that optimizes the expansion of various water supply alternatives using dynamic programming and combining both short term and long term optimization of water use and simulation of water allocation. A case study in Bahia Do Rio Dos Sinos in Southern Brazil is presented. The framework couples an optimization model with quadratic programming model in GAMS with WEAP, a rain runoff simulation models that hosts the water supply infrastructure features and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions and (b) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion. Results also highlight the potential of various water supply alternatives including, conservation, groundwater, and infrastructural enhancements over time. The framework proves its usefulness for planning its transferability to similarly urbanized systems.

Modeling and Implementation of Cattle/Beef Supply Chain Traceability Using a Distributed RFID-Based Framework in China.

PubMed

Liang, Wanjie; Cao, Jing; Fan, Yan; Zhu, Kefeng; Dai, Qiwei

2015-01-01

In recent years, traceability systems have been developed as effective tools for improving the transparency of supply chains, thereby guaranteeing the quality and safety of food products. In this study, we proposed a cattle/beef supply chain traceability model and a traceability system based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and the EPCglobal network. First of all, the transformations of traceability units were defined and analyzed throughout the cattle/beef chain. Secondly, we described the internal and external traceability information acquisition, transformation, and transmission processes throughout the beef supply chain in detail, and explained a methodology for modeling traceability information using the electronic product code information service (EPCIS) framework. Then, the traceability system was implemented based on Fosstrak and FreePastry software packages, and animal ear tag code and electronic product code (EPC) were employed to identify traceability units. Finally, a cattle/beef supply chain included breeding business, slaughter and processing business, distribution business and sales outlet was used as a case study to evaluate the beef supply chain traceability system. The results demonstrated that the major advantages of the traceability system are the effective sharing of information among business and the gapless traceability of the cattle/beef supply chain.

Modeling and Implementation of Cattle/Beef Supply Chain Traceability Using a Distributed RFID-Based Framework in China

PubMed Central

Liang, Wanjie; Cao, Jing; Fan, Yan; Zhu, Kefeng; Dai, Qiwei

2015-01-01

In recent years, traceability systems have been developed as effective tools for improving the transparency of supply chains, thereby guaranteeing the quality and safety of food products. In this study, we proposed a cattle/beef supply chain traceability model and a traceability system based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and the EPCglobal network. First of all, the transformations of traceability units were defined and analyzed throughout the cattle/beef chain. Secondly, we described the internal and external traceability information acquisition, transformation, and transmission processes throughout the beef supply chain in detail, and explained a methodology for modeling traceability information using the electronic product code information service (EPCIS) framework. Then, the traceability system was implemented based on Fosstrak and FreePastry software packages, and animal ear tag code and electronic product code (EPC) were employed to identify traceability units. Finally, a cattle/beef supply chain included breeding business, slaughter and processing business, distribution business and sales outlet was used as a case study to evaluate the beef supply chain traceability system. The results demonstrated that the major advantages of the traceability system are the effective sharing of information among business and the gapless traceability of the cattle/beef supply chain. PMID:26431340

MODEL BASED BIOMASS SYSTEM DESIGN OF FEEDSTOCK SUPPLY SYSTEMS FOR BIOENERGY PRODUCTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David J. Muth, Jr.; Jacob J. Jacobson; Kenneth M. Bryden

Engineering feedstock supply systems that deliver affordable, high-quality biomass remains a challenge for the emerging bioenergy industry. Cellulosic biomass is geographically distributed and has diverse physical and chemical properties. Because of this feedstock supply systems that deliver cellulosic biomass resources to biorefineries require integration of a broad set of engineered unit operations. These unit operations include harvest and collection, storage, preprocessing, and transportation processes. Design decisions for each feedstock supply system unit operation impact the engineering design and performance of the other system elements. These interdependencies are further complicated by spatial and temporal variances such as climate conditions and biomassmore » characteristics. This paper develops an integrated model that couples a SQL-based data management engine and systems dynamics models to design and evaluate biomass feedstock supply systems. The integrated model, called the Biomass Logistics Model (BLM), includes a suite of databases that provide 1) engineering performance data for hundreds of equipment systems, 2) spatially explicit labor cost datasets, and 3) local tax and regulation data. The BLM analytic engine is built in the systems dynamics software package PowersimTM. The BLM is designed to work with thermochemical and biochemical based biofuel conversion platforms and accommodates a range of cellulosic biomass types (i.e., herbaceous residues, short- rotation woody and herbaceous energy crops, woody residues, algae, etc.). The BLM simulates the flow of biomass through the entire supply chain, tracking changes in feedstock characteristics (i.e., moisture content, dry matter, ash content, and dry bulk density) as influenced by the various operations in the supply chain. By accounting for all of the equipment that comes into contact with biomass from the point of harvest to the throat of the conversion facility and the change in characteristics, the BLM evaluates economic performance of the engineered system, as well as determining energy consumption and green house gas performance of the design. This paper presents a BLM case study delivering corn stover to produce cellulosic ethanol. The case study utilizes the BLM to model the performance of several feedstock supply system designs. The case study also explores the impact of temporal variations in climate conditions to test the sensitivity of the engineering designs. Results from the case study show that under certain conditions corn stover can be delivered to the cellulosic ethanol biorefinery for $35/dry ton.« less

Development of coordination system model on single-supplier multi-buyer for multi-item supply chain with probabilistic demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivia, G.; Santoso, A.; Prayogo, D. N.

2017-11-01

Nowadays, the level of competition between supply chains is getting tighter and a good coordination system between supply chains members is very crucial in solving the issue. This paper focused on a model development of coordination system between single supplier and buyers in a supply chain as a solution. Proposed optimization model was designed to determine the optimal number of deliveries from a supplier to buyers in order to minimize the total cost over a planning horizon. Components of the total supply chain cost consist of transportation costs, handling costs of supplier and buyers and also stock out costs. In the proposed optimization model, the supplier can supply various types of items to retailers whose item demand patterns are probabilistic. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model was conducted to test the effect of changes in transport costs, handling costs and production capacities of the supplier. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed a significant influence on the changes in the transportation cost, handling costs and production capacity to the decisions of the optimal numbers of product delivery for each item to the buyers.

Multiplicity in public health supply systems: a learning agenda.

PubMed

Bornbusch, Alan; Bates, James

2013-08-01

Supply chain integration-merging products for health programs into a single supply chain-tends to be the dominant model in health sector reform. However, multiplicity in a supply system may be justified as a risk management strategy that can better ensure product availability, advance specific health program objectives, and increase efficiency.

Derivation of optimal joint operating rules for multi-purpose multi-reservoir water-supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Qiao-feng; Wang, Xu; Wang, Hao; Wang, Chao; Lei, Xiao-hui; Xiong, Yi-song; Zhang, Wei

2017-08-01

The derivation of joint operating policy is a challenging task for a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system. This study proposed an aggregation-decomposition model to guide the joint operation of multi-purpose multi-reservoir system, including: (1) an aggregated model based on the improved hedging rule to ensure the long-term water-supply operating benefit; (2) a decomposed model to allocate the limited release to individual reservoirs for the purpose of maximizing the total profit of the facing period; and (3) a double-layer simulation-based optimization model to obtain the optimal time-varying hedging rules using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II, whose objectives were to minimize maximum water deficit and maximize water supply reliability. The water-supply system of Li River in Guangxi Province, China, was selected for the case study. The results show that the operating policy proposed in this study is better than conventional operating rules and aggregated standard operating policy for both water supply and hydropower generation due to the use of hedging mechanism and effective coordination among multiple objectives.

PLANNING MODELS FOR URBAN WATER SUPPLY EXPANSION. VOLUME 1. PLANNING FOR THE EXPANSION OF REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

A three-volume report was developed relative to the modelling of investment strategies for regional water supply planning. Volume 1 is the study of capacity expansion over time. Models to aid decision making for the deterministic case are presented, and a planning process under u...

Research on modeling and conduction disturbance simulation of secondary power system in a device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xu; Yu, Zhi-Yong; Jin, Rui

2017-06-01

To find electromagnetic interference (EMI) and other problems in the secondary power supply system design quickly and effectively, simulations are carried out under the Saber simulation software platform. The DC/DC converter model with complete performance and electromagnetic characteristics is established by combining parametric modeling with Mast language. By using the method of macro modeling, the hall current sensor and power supply filter model are established respectively based on the function, schematic diagram of the components. Also the simulation of the component model and the whole secondary power supply system are carried out. The simulation results show that the proposed model satisfies the functional requirements of the system and has high accuracy. At the same time, due to the ripple characteristics in the DC/DC converter modeling, it can be used as a conducted interference model to simulate the power bus conducted emission CE102 project under the condition that the simulated load is full, which provides a useful reference for the electromagnetic interference suppression of the system.

A supply chain approach to biochar systems [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Nathaniel M. Anderson; Richard D. Bergman; Deborah S. Page-Dumroese

2017-01-01

Biochar systems are designed to meet four related primary objectives: improve soils, manage waste, generate renewable energy, and mitigate climate change. Supply chain models provide a holistic framework for examining biochar systems with an emphasis on product life cycle and end use. Drawing on concepts in supply chain management and engineering, this chapter presents...

A decision support system for transportation infrastructure and supply chain system planning.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-07-01

This project makes the results (models and methodology) of the research and development efforts on freight movement modeling (FMM) and supply chain design carried out by faculty at OSU and OU available to transportation and logistics professionals. A...

Use of multilevel modeling for determining optimal parameters of heat supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stennikov, V. A.; Barakhtenko, E. A.; Sokolov, D. V.

2017-07-01

The problem of finding optimal parameters of a heat-supply system (HSS) is in ensuring the required throughput capacity of a heat network by determining pipeline diameters and characteristics and location of pumping stations. Effective methods for solving this problem, i.e., the method of stepwise optimization based on the concept of dynamic programming and the method of multicircuit optimization, were proposed in the context of the hydraulic circuit theory developed at Melentiev Energy Systems Institute (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences). These methods enable us to determine optimal parameters of various types of piping systems due to flexible adaptability of the calculation procedure to intricate nonlinear mathematical models describing features of used equipment items and methods of their construction and operation. The new and most significant results achieved in developing methodological support and software for finding optimal parameters of complex heat supply systems are presented: a new procedure for solving the problem based on multilevel decomposition of a heat network model that makes it possible to proceed from the initial problem to a set of interrelated, less cumbersome subproblems with reduced dimensionality; a new algorithm implementing the method of multicircuit optimization and focused on the calculation of a hierarchical model of a heat supply system; the SOSNA software system for determining optimum parameters of intricate heat-supply systems and implementing the developed methodological foundation. The proposed procedure and algorithm enable us to solve engineering problems of finding the optimal parameters of multicircuit heat supply systems having large (real) dimensionality, and are applied in solving urgent problems related to the optimal development and reconstruction of these systems. The developed methodological foundation and software can be used for designing heat supply systems in the Central and the Admiralty regions in St. Petersburg, the city of Bratsk, and the Magistral'nyi settlement.

Improving healthcare value through clinical community and supply chain collaboration.

PubMed

Ishii, Lisa; Demski, Renee; Ken Lee, K H; Mustafa, Zishan; Frank, Steve; Wolisnky, Jean Paul; Cohen, David; Khanna, Jay; Ammerman, Joshua; Khanuja, Harpal S; Unger, Anthony S; Gould, Lois; Wachter, Patricia Ann; Stearns, Lauren; Werthman, Ronald; Pronovost, Peter

2017-03-01

We hypothesized that integrating supply chain with clinical communities would allow for clinician-led supply cost reduction and improved value in an academic health system. Three clinical communities (spine, joint, blood management) and one clinical community-like physician led team of surgeon stakeholders partnered with the supply chain team on specific supply cost initiatives. The teams reviewed their specific utilization and cost data, and the physicians led consensus-building conversations over a series of team meetings to agree to standard supply utilization. The spine and joint clinical communities each agreed upon a vendor capping model that led to cost savings of $3 million dollars and $1.5 million dollars respectively. The blood management decreased blood product utilization and achieved $1.2 million dollars savings. $5.6 million dollars in savings was achieved by a clinical community-like group of surgeon stakeholders through standardization of sutures and endomechanicals. Physician led clinical teams empowered to lead change achieved substantial supply chain cost savings in an academic health system. The model of combining clinical communities with supply chain offers hope for an effective, practical, and scalable approach to improving value and engaging physicians in other academic health systems. This clinician led model could benefit both private and academic health systems engaging in value optimization efforts. N/A. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computer model of Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, Paul; Tasker, Gary D.

1996-01-01

This report describes a computer model of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey. The computer model provides a technical basis for evaluating the effects of alternative patterns of operation of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system during extended periods of below-average precipitation. The computer model is a continuity-accounting model consisting of a series of interconnected nodes. At each node, the inflow volume, outflow volume, and change in storage are determined and recorded for each month. The model runs with a given set of operating rules and water-use requirements including releases, pumpages, and diversions. The model can be used to assess the hypothetical performance of the Raritan River Basin water- supply system in past years under alternative sets of operating rules. It also can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as the depletion of reservoir contents below a specified threshold or of streamflows below statutory minimum passing flows, for a period of up to 12 months. The model was constructed on the basis of current reservoir capacities and the natural, unregulated monthly runoff values recorded at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow- gaging stations in the basin.

Development of the Optimum Operation Scheduling Model of Domestic Electric Appliances for the Supply-Demand Adjustment in a Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikegami, Takashi; Iwafune, Yumiko; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

The high penetration of variable renewable generation such as Photovoltaic (PV) systems will cause the issue of supply-demand imbalance in a whole power system. The activation of the residential power usage, storage and generation by sophisticated scheduling and control using the Home Energy Management System (HEMS) will be needed to balance power supply and demand in the near future. In order to evaluate the applicability of the HEMS as a distributed controller for local and system-wide supply-demand balances, we developed an optimum operation scheduling model of domestic electric appliances using the mixed integer linear programming. Applying this model to several houses with dynamic electricity prices reflecting the power balance of the total power system, it was found that the adequate changes in electricity prices bring about the shift of residential power usages to control the amount of the reverse power flow due to excess PV generation.

Southern Forest Resource Assessment Using the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) Model

Treesearch

Robert C. Abt; Frederick W. Cubbage; Gerardo Pacheco

2000-01-01

Most timber supply analyses are focused on broad regions. This paper describes a modeling system that uses a standard empirical framework applied to subregional inventory data in the South. Model results indicate significant within-region variation in supply responses across owners and regions. Projections of southern timber markets indicate that results are sensitive...

Life Support with Failures and Variable Supply

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2010-01-01

The life support system for long duration missions will recycle oxygen and water to reduce the material resupply mass from Earth. The impact of life support failures was investigated by dynamic simulation of a lunar outpost habitat life support model. The model was modified to simulate resupply delays, power failures, recycling system failures, and storage failures. Many failures impact the lunar outpost water supply directly or indirectly, depending on the water balance and water storage. Failure effects on the water supply are reduced if Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) water use is low and the water supply is ample. Additional oxygen can be supplied by scavenging unused propellant or by production from regolith, but the amounts obtained can vary significantly. The requirements for oxygen and water can also vary significantly, especially for EVA. Providing storage buffers can improve efficiency and reliability, and minimize the chance of supply failing to meet demand. Life support failures and supply variations can be survivable if effective solutions are provided by the system design

Analysing biomass torrefaction supply chain costs.

PubMed

Svanberg, Martin; Olofsson, Ingemar; Flodén, Jonas; Nordin, Anders

2013-08-01

The objective of the present work was to develop a techno-economic system model to evaluate how logistics and production parameters affect the torrefaction supply chain costs under Swedish conditions. The model consists of four sub-models: (1) supply system, (2) a complete energy and mass balance of drying, torrefaction and densification, (3) investment and operating costs of a green field, stand-alone torrefaction pellet plant, and (4) distribution system to the gate of an end user. The results show that the torrefaction supply chain reaps significant economies of scale up to a plant size of about 150-200 kiloton dry substance per year (ktonDS/year), for which the total supply chain costs accounts to 31.8 euro per megawatt hour based on lower heating value (€/MWhLHV). Important parameters affecting total cost are amount of available biomass, biomass premium, logistics equipment, biomass moisture content, drying technology, torrefaction mass yield and torrefaction plant capital expenditures (CAPEX). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land transportation model for supply chain manufacturing industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniawan, Fajar

2017-12-01

Supply chain is a system that integrates production, inventory, distribution and information processes for increasing productivity and minimize costs. Transportation is an important part of the supply chain system, especially for supporting the material distribution process, work in process products and final products. In fact, Jakarta as the distribution center of manufacturing industries for the industrial area. Transportation system has a large influences on the implementation of supply chain process efficiency. The main problem faced in Jakarta is traffic jam that will affect on the time of distribution. Based on the system dynamic model, there are several scenarios that can provide solutions to minimize timing of distribution that will effect on the cost such as the construction of ports approaching industrial areas other than Tanjung Priok, widening road facilities, development of railways system, and the development of distribution center.

Shuttle cryogenic supply system optimization study. Volume 1: Management supply, sections 1 - 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

An analysis of the cryogenic supply system for use on space shuttle vehicles was conducted. The major outputs of the analysis are: (1) evaluations of subsystem and integrated system concepts, (2) selection of representative designs, (3) parametric data and sensitivity studies, (4) evaluation of cryogenic cooling in environmental control subsystems, and (5) development of mathematical model.

The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

Treesearch

P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

1987-01-01

TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

An Improved Inventory Control Model for the Brazilian Navy Supply System

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

Portuguese Centro de Controle de Inventario da Marinha, the Brazilian Navy Inventory Control Point (ICP) developed an empirical model called SPAADA...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited AN IMPROVED INVENTORY CONTROL ...AN IMPROVED INVENTORY CONTROL MODEL FOR THE BRAZILIAN NAVY SUPPLY SYSTEM Contract Number Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s) Moreira

Exploring Tradeoffs in Demand-side and Supply-side Management of Urban Water Resources using Agent-based Modeling and Evolutionary Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.

2015-12-01

Urban water supply systems may be managed through supply-side and demand-side strategies, which focus on water source expansion and demand reductions, respectively. Supply-side strategies bear infrastructure and energy costs, while demand-side strategies bear costs of implementation and inconvenience to consumers. To evaluate the performance of demand-side strategies, the participation and water use adaptations of consumers should be simulated. In this study, a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework is developed to simulate consumer agents that change their consumption to affect the withdrawal from the water supply system, which, in turn influences operational policies and long-term resource planning. Agent-based models are encoded to represent consumers and a policy maker agent and are coupled with water resources system simulation models. The CAS framework is coupled with an evolutionary computation-based multi-objective methodology to explore tradeoffs in cost, inconvenience to consumers, and environmental impacts for both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Decisions are identified to specify storage levels in a reservoir that trigger (1) increases in the volume of water pumped through inter-basin transfers from an external reservoir and (2) drought stages, which restrict the volume of water that is allowed for residential outdoor uses. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for Arlington, Texas, water supply system to identify non-dominated strategies for an historic drought decade. Results demonstrate that pumping costs associated with maximizing environmental reliability exceed pumping costs associated with minimizing restrictions on consumer water use.

Estimating the Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel Using an Input-Output Model - A Micro-Level Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

The multilocation distribution model used by Lu and Rencheng to evaluate an international supply chain (From: Lu & Rencheng, 2007...IO model to evaluate an international supply chain specifically for a multilocation production system. Figure 2 illustrates such a system. vendor...vendor vendor Target markets Production plants Material vendor Figure 2. The multilocation distribution model used by Lu and Rencheng to

Are drought vulnerability indices useful tools in order to evaluate the state of a water supply system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preziosi, E.; Del Bon, A.; Romano, E.; Petrangeli, A. B.; Casadei, S.

2012-04-01

Water resources availability is affected both by anthropic drivers (increasing demand, modification in the uses) and natural ones such as precipitation decrease related to global climate changes. Water managers and water policy makers are more and more aware that they are facing a changing climate in which the availability of water is claimed to be decreasing in many parts of the world. The possibility that droughts will be more frequent and severe in the next decades is getting a real possibility and a wise manager should know in advance how to face this new reality. Hence new tools and, more important, a methodology to assess the weakest points of a complex water supply system to water scarcity scenarios, are necessary. The importance of simulation models to assess in advance the impacts of possible conditions of severe water shortage and the effects of feasible mitigation options on water supply systems is well known. Vulnerability is commonly used to characterize the performance of water supply systems, and it can be a helpful indicator in the evaluation of the most likely failures in a complex system in ordinary as well as in more severe climatic conditions. However a common procedure about the exploitation of modeling results is not established yet. In this research the water supply network of a case study area in Central Italy was modeled under different climatic and management hypothesis. In this area both ground water resources (well fields in alluvial aquifers and Apennine springs) and surface water resources stored in two large reservoirs, are exploited mainly for drinking water supply and irrigation. Climate scenarios were drawn based on three simplistic hypothesis: firstly a progressive reduction of precipitation in 55 years, secondly an increase in its variance during time, lastly a combination of the two. The model results were elaborated to calculate different indices, in order to analyze the variation of vulnerability of the water supply system to drought, in time and space. For our case study the model results show that the safety of the water supply system mainly relies on the reservoirs capacity and that the foreseen exploitation of the Apennine springs for drinking water supply could be seriously limited by the discharge natural decrease in fall. A decrease of the water system vulnerability to drought determined by a hypothetical but feasible mitigation option (augmentation of the total reservoir capacity with small reservoirs) was positively tested by the model. As a conclusion, vulnerability indices as well as synoptic risk maps, appear to be useful tools in order to analyze model results. Additionally they could provide scientific based scenarios to be used in a decision making framework considering negotiating among the main users.

Laser power conversion system analysis, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, W. S.; Morgan, L. L.; Forsyth, J. B.; Skratt, J. P.

1979-01-01

The orbit-to-orbit laser energy conversion system analysis established a mission model of satellites with various orbital parameters and average electrical power requirements ranging from 1 to 300 kW. The system analysis evaluated various conversion techniques, power system deployment parameters, power system electrical supplies and other critical supplies and other critical subsystems relative to various combinations of the mission model. The analysis show that the laser power system would not be competitive with current satellite power systems from weight, cost and development risk standpoints.

Computer software tool REALM for sustainable water allocation and management.

PubMed

Perera, B J C; James, B; Kularathna, M D U

2005-12-01

REALM (REsource ALlocation Model) is a generalised computer simulation package that models harvesting and bulk distribution of water resources within a water supply system. It is a modeling tool, which can be applied to develop specific water allocation models. Like other water resource simulation software tools, REALM uses mass-balance accounting at nodes, while the movement of water within carriers is subject to capacity constraints. It uses a fast network linear programming algorithm to optimise the water allocation within the network during each simulation time step, in accordance with user-defined operating rules. This paper describes the main features of REALM and provides potential users with an appreciation of its capabilities. In particular, it describes two case studies covering major urban and rural water supply systems. These case studies illustrate REALM's capabilities in the use of stochastically generated data in water supply planning and management, modelling of environmental flows, and assessing security of supply issues.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Flexibility evaluation of multiechelon supply chains.

PubMed

Almeida, João Flávio de Freitas; Conceição, Samuel Vieira; Pinto, Luiz Ricardo; de Camargo, Ricardo Saraiva; Júnior, Gilberto de Miranda

2018-01-01

Multiechelon supply chains are complex logistics systems that require flexibility and coordination at a tactical level to cope with environmental uncertainties in an efficient and effective manner. To cope with these challenges, mathematical programming models are developed to evaluate supply chain flexibility. However, under uncertainty, supply chain models become complex and the scope of flexibility analysis is generally reduced. This paper presents a unified approach that can evaluate the flexibility of a four-echelon supply chain via a robust stochastic programming model. The model simultaneously considers the plans of multiple business divisions such as marketing, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement, whose goals are often conflicting. A numerical example with deterministic parameters is presented to introduce the analysis, and then, the model stochastic parameters are considered to evaluate flexibility. The results of the analysis on supply, manufacturing, and distribution flexibility are presented. Tradeoff analysis of demand variability and service levels is also carried out. The proposed approach facilitates the adoption of different management styles, thus improving supply chain resilience. The model can be extended to contexts pertaining to supply chain disruptions; for example, the model can be used to explore operation strategies when subtle events disrupt supply, manufacturing, or distribution.

Flexibility evaluation of multiechelon supply chains

PubMed Central

Conceição, Samuel Vieira; Pinto, Luiz Ricardo; de Camargo, Ricardo Saraiva; Júnior, Gilberto de Miranda

2018-01-01

Multiechelon supply chains are complex logistics systems that require flexibility and coordination at a tactical level to cope with environmental uncertainties in an efficient and effective manner. To cope with these challenges, mathematical programming models are developed to evaluate supply chain flexibility. However, under uncertainty, supply chain models become complex and the scope of flexibility analysis is generally reduced. This paper presents a unified approach that can evaluate the flexibility of a four-echelon supply chain via a robust stochastic programming model. The model simultaneously considers the plans of multiple business divisions such as marketing, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement, whose goals are often conflicting. A numerical example with deterministic parameters is presented to introduce the analysis, and then, the model stochastic parameters are considered to evaluate flexibility. The results of the analysis on supply, manufacturing, and distribution flexibility are presented. Tradeoff analysis of demand variability and service levels is also carried out. The proposed approach facilitates the adoption of different management styles, thus improving supply chain resilience. The model can be extended to contexts pertaining to supply chain disruptions; for example, the model can be used to explore operation strategies when subtle events disrupt supply, manufacturing, or distribution. PMID:29584755

Multi-purpose wind tunnel reaction control model block

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dresser, H. S.; Daileda, J. J. (Inventor)

1978-01-01

A reaction control system nozzle block is provided for testing the response characteristics of space vehicles to a variety of reaction control thruster configurations. A pressurized air system is connected with the supply lines which lead to the individual jet nozzles. Each supply line terminates in a compact cylindrical plenum volume, axially perpendicular and adjacent to the throat of the jet nozzle. The volume of the cylindrical plenum is sized to provide uniform thrust characteristics from each jet nozzle irrespective of the angle of approach of the supply line to the plenum. Each supply line may be plugged or capped to stop the air supply to selected jet nozzles, thereby enabling a variety of nozzle configurations to be obtained from a single model nozzle block.

Stop the supply chain insanity. Retail as a model for hospitals.

PubMed

Belkoski, David A

2008-04-01

The healthcare supply chain has yet to embrace any single industrywide source for synchronized product data. A synchronized product data system is a keystone in other multibillion-dollar markets. University Health Care System (UHCS), Augusta, Ga., developed a pilot program that demonstrates the benefits of data standardization and synchronization and enabled the system to recognize productivity gains in the supply chain.

Mathematical modeling of systemic factors determining the risk of deterioration of drinking water supply and development of allergic diseases of population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bespalov, Yurii G.; Nosov, Konstantin V.; Vysotska, Olena V.; Porvan, Andrii P.; Omiotek, Zbigniew; Burlibay, Aron; Assembay, Azat; Szatkowska, Małgorzata

2017-08-01

This study aims at mathematical modeling of systemic factors threatening the sanitary and hygienic state of sources of water supply. It is well-known, that this state affects health of population consuming water from different water sources (lakes, reservoirs, rivers). In particular, water quality problem may cause allergic reactions that are the important problem of health care. In the paper, the authors present the mathematical model, that enables on the basis of observations of a natural system to predict the system's behavior and determine the risks related to deterioration of drinking water resources. As a case study, we uses supply of drinking water from Lake Sevan, but the approach developed in the study can be applied to wide area of adjacent problems.

Study on the influence of supplying compressed air channels and evicting channels on pneumatical oscillation systems for vibromooshing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glăvan, D. O.; Radu, I.; Babanatsas, T.; Babanatis Merce, R. M.; Kiss, I.; Gaspar, M. C.

2018-01-01

The paper presents a pneumatic system with two oscillating masses. The system is composed of a cylinder (framework) with mass m1, which has a piston with mass m2 inside. The cylinder (framework system) has one supplying channel for compressed air and one evicting channel for each work chamber (left and right of the piston). Functionality of the piston position comparatively with the cylinder (framework) is possible through the supplying or evicting of compressed air. The variable force that keeps the movement depends on variation of the pressure that is changing depending on the piston position according to the cylinder (framework) and to the section form that is supplying and evicting channels with compressed air. The paper presents the physical model/pattern, the mathematical model/pattern (differential equations) and numerical solution of the differential equations in hypothesis with the section form of supplying and evicting channels with compressed air is rectangular (variation linear) or circular (variation nonlinear).

A social systems model of hospital utilization.

PubMed Central

Anderson, J G

1976-01-01

A social systems model for the health services system serving the state of New Mexico is presented. Utilization of short-term general hospitals is viewed as a function of sociodemographic characteristics of the population and of the supply of health manpower and facilities available to that population. The model includes a network specifying the causal relationships hypothesized as existing among a set of social, demographic, and economic variables known to be related to the supply of health manpower and facilities and to their utilization. Inclusion of feedback into the model as well as lagged values of physician supply variables permits examination of the dynamic behavior of the social system over time. A method for deriving the reduced form of the structural model is presented along with the reduced-form equations. These equations provide valuable information for policy decisions regarding the likely consequences of changes in the structure of the population and in the supply of health manpower and facilities. The structural and reduced-form equations have been used to predict the consequences for one New Mexico county of state and federal policies that would affect the organization and delivery of health services. PMID:1017949

Application of BIM Technology in Building Water Supply and Drainage Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Tianyun; Chen, Guiqing; Wang, Junde

2017-12-01

Through the application of BIM technology, the idea of building water supply and drainage designers can be related to the model, the various influencing factors to affect water supply and drainage design can be considered more comprehensively. BIM(Building information model) technology assist in improving the design process of building water supply and drainage, promoting the building water supply and drainage planning, enriching the building water supply and drainage design method, improving the water supply and drainage system design level and building quality. Combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze the advantages of BIM technology in building water supply and drainage design. Therefore, application prospects of BIM technology are very worthy of promotion.

Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States: A Multi-Model Comparison

EPA Science Inventory

This paper compares the climate change impacts on U.S. electricity demand and supply from three models: the Integrated Planning Model (IPM), the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, and GCAM. Rising temperatures cause an appreciable net increase in electricity demand....

Comparing Supply-Side Specifications in Models of Global Agriculture and the Food System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, Sherman; van Meijl, Hans; Willenbockel, Dirk

This paper compares the theoretical specification of production and technical change across the partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two modeling approaches have different theoretical underpinnings concerning the scope of economic activity they capture and how they represent technology and the behavior of supply and demand in markets. This paper focuses on their different specifications of technology and supply behavior, comparing their theoretical and empirical treatments. While the models differ widely in their specifications of technology, both within and between the PEmore » and CGE classes of models, we find that the theoretical responsiveness of supply to changes in prices can be similar, depending on parameter choices that define the behavior of supply functions over the domain of applicability defined by the common scenarios used in the AgMIP comparisons. In particular, we compare the theoretical specification of supply in CGE models with neoclassical production functions and PE models that focus on land and crop yields in agriculture. In practice, however, comparability of results given parameter choices is an empirical question, and the models differ in their sensitivity to variations in specification. To illustrate the issues, sensitivity analysis is done with one global CGE model, MAGNET, to indicate how the results vary with different specification of technical change, and how they compare with the results from PE models.« less

Development of Regional Supply Functions and a Least-Cost Model for Allocating Water Resources in Utah: A Parametric Linear Programming Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, * WATER SUPPLIES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, OPTIMIZATION, ECONOMICS, LINEAR PROGRAMMING, HYDROLOGY, REGIONS, ALLOCATIONS, RESTRAINT, RIVERS, EVAPORATION, LAKES, UTAH, SALVAGE, MINES(EXCAVATIONS).

An Integer Programming Model for Multi-Echelon Supply Chain Decision Problem Considering Inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harahap, Amin; Mawengkang, Herman; Siswadi; Effendi, Syahril

2018-01-01

In this paper we address a problem that is of significance to the industry, namely the optimal decision of a multi-echelon supply chain and the associated inventory systems. By using the guaranteed service approach to model the multi-echelon inventory system, we develop a mixed integer; programming model to simultaneously optimize the transportation, inventory and network structure of a multi-echelon supply chain. To solve the model we develop a direct search approach using a strategy of releasing nonbasic variables from their bounds, combined with the “active constraint” method. This strategy is used to force the appropriate non-integer basic variables to move to their neighbourhood integer points.

Formulation of advanced consumables management models: Executive summary. [modeling spacecraft environmental control, life support, and electric power supply systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daly, J. K.; Torian, J. G.

1979-01-01

An overview of studies conducted to establish the requirements for advanced subsystem analytical tools is presented. Modifications are defined for updating current computer programs used to analyze environmental control, life support, and electric power supply systems so that consumables for future advanced spacecraft may be managed.

An analysis of short haul airline operating costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanafani, A.; Taghavi, S.

1975-01-01

The demand and supply characteristics of short haul air transportation systems are investigated in terms of airline operating costs. Direct, indirect, and ground handling costs are included. Supply models of short haul air transportation systems are constructed.

Optimal reconstruction of historical water supply to a distribution system: A. Methodology.

PubMed

Aral, M M; Guan, J; Maslia, M L; Sautner, J B; Gillig, R E; Reyes, J J; Williams, R C

2004-09-01

The New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services (NJDHSS), with support from the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) conducted an epidemiological study of childhood leukaemia and nervous system cancers that occurred in the period 1979 through 1996 in Dover Township, Ocean County, New Jersey. The epidemiological study explored a wide variety of possible risk factors, including environmental exposures. ATSDR and NJDHSS determined that completed human exposure pathways to groundwater contaminants occurred in the past through private and community water supplies (i.e. the water distribution system serving the area). To investigate this exposure, a model of the water distribution system was developed and calibrated through an extensive field investigation. The components of this water distribution system, such as number of pipes, number of tanks, and number of supply wells in the network, changed significantly over a 35-year period (1962--1996), the time frame established for the epidemiological study. Data on the historical management of this system was limited. Thus, it was necessary to investigate alternative ways to reconstruct the operation of the system and test the sensitivity of the system to various alternative operations. Manual reconstruction of the historical water supply to the system in order to provide this sensitivity analysis was time-consuming and labour intensive, given the complexity of the system and the time constraints imposed on the study. To address these issues, the problem was formulated as an optimization problem, where it was assumed that the water distribution system was operated in an optimum manner at all times to satisfy the constraints in the system. The solution to the optimization problem provided the historical water supply strategy in a consistent manner for each month of the study period. The non-uniqueness of the selected historical water supply strategy was addressed by the formulation of a second model, which was based on the first solution. Numerous other sensitivity analyses were also conducted using these two models. Both models are solved using a two-stage progressive optimality algorithm along with genetic algorithms (GAs) and the EPANET2 water distribution network solver. This process reduced the required solution time and generated a historically consistent water supply strategy for the water distribution system.

Modeling the resilience of urban water supply using the capital portfolio approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, E. H.; Klammler, H.; Borchardt, D.; Frank, K.; Jawitz, J. W.; Rao, P. S.

2017-12-01

The dynamics of global change challenge the resilience of cities in a multitude of ways, including pressures resulting from population and consumption changes, production patterns, climate and landuse change, as well as environmental hazards. Responses to these challenges aim to improve urban resilience, but lack an adequate understanding of 1) the elements and processes that lead to the resilience of coupled natural-human-engineered systems, 2) the complex dynamics emerging from the interaction of these elements, including the availability of natural resources, infrastructure, and social capital, which may lead to 3) unintended consequences resulting from management responses. We propose a new model that simulates the coupled dynamics of five types of capitals (water resources, infrastructure, finances, political capital /management, and social adaptive capacity) that are necessary for the provision of water supply to urban residents. We parameterize the model based on data for a case study city, which is limited by constraints in water availability, financial resources, and faced with degrading infrastructure, as well as population increase, which challenge the urban management institutions. Our model analyzes the stability of the coupled system, and produces time series of the capital dynamics to quantify its resilience as a result of the portfolio of capitals available to usher adaptive capacity and to secure water supply subjected to multiple recurring shocks. We apply our model to one real urban water supply system located in an arid environment, as well as a wide range of hypothetical case studies, which demonstrates its applicability to various types of cities, and its ability to quantify and compare water supply resilience. The analysis of a range of urban water systems provides valuable insights into guiding more sustainable responses for maintaining the resilience of urban water supply around the globe, by showing how unsustainable responses risk the loss of resilience. We suggest that the same model can be generalized to represent other types of urban infrastructure service systems with different parameterizations.

Analysis of residual chlorine in simple drinking water distribution system with intermittent water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyal, Roopali V.; Patel, H. M.

2015-09-01

Knowledge of residual chlorine concentration at various locations in drinking water distribution system is essential final check to the quality of water supplied to the consumers. This paper presents a methodology to find out the residual chlorine concentration at various locations in simple branch network by integrating the hydraulic and water quality model using first-order chlorine decay equation with booster chlorination nodes for intermittent water supply. The explicit equations are developed to compute the residual chlorine in network with a long distribution pipe line at critical nodes. These equations are applicable to Indian conditions where intermittent water supply is the most common system of water supply. It is observed that in intermittent water supply, the residual chlorine at farthest node is sensitive to water supply hours and travelling time of chlorine. Thus, the travelling time of chlorine can be considered to justify the requirement of booster chlorination for intermittent water supply.

Oil supply between OPEC and non-OPEC based on game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yuwen; Yi, Jiexin; Yan, Wei; Yang, Xinshe; Zhang, Song; Gao, Yifan; Wang, Xi

2014-10-01

The competing strategies between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC producers make the oil supply market a complex system, and thus, it is very difficult to model and to make predictions. In this paper, we combine the macro-model based on game theory and micro-model to propose a new approach for forecasting oil supply. We take into account the microscopic behaviour in the clearing market and also use the game relationships to adjust oil supplies in our approach. For the supply model, we analyse and consider the different behaviour of non-OPEC and OPEC producers. According to our analysis, limiting the oil supply, and thus maintaining oil price, is the best strategy for OPEC in the low-price scenario, while the rising supply is the best strategy in the high-price scenario. No matter what the oil price is, the dominant strategy for non-OPEC producers is to increase their oil supply. In the high-price scenario, OPEC will try to deplete non-OPEC's share in the oil supply market, which is to OPEC's advantage.

The water-energy nexus at water supply and its implications on the integrated water and energy management.

PubMed

Khalkhali, Masoumeh; Westphal, Kirk; Mo, Weiwei

2018-09-15

Water and energy are highly interdependent in the modern world, and hence, it is important to understand their constantly changing and nonlinear interconnections to inform the integrated management of water and energy. In this study, a hydrologic model, a water systems model, and an energy model were developed and integrated into a system dynamics modeling framework. This framework was then applied to a water supply system in the northeast US to capture its water-energy interactions under a set of future population, climate, and system operation scenarios. A hydrologic model was first used to simulate the system's hydrologic inflows and outflows under temperature and precipitation changes on a weekly-basis. A water systems model that combines the hydrologic model and management rules (e.g., water release and transfer) was then developed to dynamically simulate the system's water storage and water head. Outputs from the water systems model were used in the energy model to estimate hydropower generation. It was found that critical water-energy synergies and tradeoffs exist, and there is a possibility for integrated water and energy management to achieve better outcomes. This analysis also shows the importance of a holistic understanding of the systems as a whole, which would allow utility managers to make proactive long-term management decisions. The modeling framework is generalizable to other water supply systems with hydropower generation capacities to inform the integrated management of water and energy resources. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Complex Economic System of Supply Chain Financing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lili; Yan, Guangle

Supply Chain Financing (SCF) refers to a series of innovative and complicated financial services based on supply chain. The SCF set-up is a complex system, where the supply chain management and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) financing services interpenetrate systematically. This paper establishes the organization structure of SCF System, and presents two financing models respectively, with or without the participation of the third-party logistic provider (3PL). Using Information Economics and Game Theory, the interrelationship among diverse economic sectors is analyzed, and the economic mechanism of development and existent for SCF system is demonstrated. New thoughts and approaches to solve SMEs financing problem are given.

Implementation of system dynamic simulation method to optimize profit in supply chain network of vegetable product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tama, I. P.; Akbar, Z.; Eunike, A.

2018-04-01

Vegetables are categorized as a perishable product, which is a product with short lifespan thus requires proper handling and planning to reduce losses caused by the short lifespan. In order to reduce the losses, coordination among the players in the supply chain is required. On the other hand, the decision in the supply chain of vegetables and other farming products in the traditional market of developing country is independent among the players. This research is conducted by using System Dynamic Simulation method to develop model and scenario by coordinating the supply quantity amongst players in the supply chain. The scenarios are developed based on newsboy inventory model. This study aims to compare scenarios combining tiers involved in coordination program. The result shows that coordination in supply chain increases total supply chain profit, although there will always be players who experienced decrements in profit. The scenario of coordination among the farmer, the distributor, and the wholesaler resulted in the highest increase in total supply chain profit compared to other coordination scenarios, with an increased value of 10.49%.

Modeling and Optimization for Management of Intermittent Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, A. M.; Wilkening, J.; Rycroft, C.

2014-12-01

In many urban areas, piped water is supplied only intermittently, as valves direct water to different parts of the water distribution system at different times. The flow is transient, and may transition between free-surface and pressurized, resulting in complex dynamical features with important consequences for water suppliers and users. These consequences include degradation of distribution system components, compromised water quality, and inequitable water availability. The goal of this work is to model the important dynamics and identify operating conditions that mitigate certain negative effects of intermittent water supply. Specifically, we will look at controlling valve parameters occurring as boundary conditions in a network model of transient, transition flow through closed pipes. Gradient-based optimization will be used to find boundary values to minimize pressure gradients and ensure equitable water availability at system endpoints.

An approach for formalising the supply chain operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zdravković, Milan; Panetto, Hervé; Trajanović, Miroslav; Aubry, Alexis

2011-11-01

Reference models play an important role in the knowledge management of the various complex collaboration domains (such as supply chain networks). However, they often show a lack of semantic precision and, they are sometimes incomplete. In this article, we present an approach to overcome semantic inconsistencies and incompleteness of the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model and hence improve its usefulness and expand the application domain. First, we describe a literal web ontology language (OWL) specification of SCOR concepts (and related tools) built with the intention to preserve the original approach in the classification of process reference model entities, and hence enable the effectiveness of usage in original contexts. Next, we demonstrate the system for its exploitation, in specific - tools for SCOR framework browsing and rapid supply chain process configuration. Then, we describe the SCOR-Full ontology, its relations with relevant domain ontology and show how it can be exploited for improvement of SCOR ontological framework competence. Finally, we elaborate the potential impact of the presented approach, to interoperability of systems in supply chain networks.

An Extended Petri-Net Based Approach for Supply Chain Process Enactment in Resource-Centric Web Service Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaodong; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Cai, Hongming; Xu, Boyi

Enacting a supply-chain process involves variant partners and different IT systems. REST receives increasing attention for distributed systems with loosely coupled resources. Nevertheless, resource model incompatibilities and conflicts prevent effective process modeling and deployment in resource-centric Web service environment. In this paper, a Petri-net based framework for supply-chain process integration is proposed. A resource meta-model is constructed to represent the basic information of resources. Then based on resource meta-model, XML schemas and documents are derived, which represent resources and their states in Petri-net. Thereafter, XML-net, a high level Petri-net, is employed for modeling control and data flow of process. From process model in XML-net, RESTful services and choreography descriptions are deduced. Therefore, unified resource representation and RESTful services description are proposed for cross-system integration in a more effective way. A case study is given to illustrate the approach and the desirable features of the approach are discussed.

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Electric Transport Traction Power Supply System With Distributed Energy Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramov, E. Y.; Schurov, N. I.; Rozhkova, M. V.

2016-04-01

The paper states the problem of traction substation (TSS) leveling of daily-load curve for urban electric transport. The circuit of traction power supply system (TPSS) with distributed autonomous energy source (AES) based on photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage (ES) units is submitted here. The distribution algorithm of power flow for the daily traction load curve leveling is also introduced in this paper. In addition, it illustrates the implemented experiment model of power supply system.

A collaborative scheduling model for the supply-hub with multiple suppliers and multiple manufacturers.

PubMed

Li, Guo; Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

2014-01-01

This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment.

A Collaborative Scheduling Model for the Supply-Hub with Multiple Suppliers and Multiple Manufacturers

PubMed Central

Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

2014-01-01

This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment. PMID:24892104

Climate Considerations Of The Electricity Supply Systems In Industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asset, Khabdullin; Zauresh, Khabdullina

2014-12-01

The study is focused on analysis of climate considerations of electricity supply systems in a pellet industry. The developed analysis model consists of two modules: statistical data of active power losses evaluation module and climate aspects evaluation module. The statistical data module is presented as a universal mathematical model of electrical systems and components of industrial load. It forms a basis for detailed accounting of power loss from the voltage levels. On the basis of the universal model, a set of programs is designed to perform the calculation and experimental research. It helps to obtain the statistical characteristics of the power losses and loads of the electricity supply systems and to define the nature of changes in these characteristics. Within the module, several methods and algorithms for calculating parameters of equivalent circuits of low- and high-voltage ADC and SD with a massive smooth rotor with laminated poles are developed. The climate aspects module includes an analysis of the experimental data of power supply system in pellet production. It allows identification of GHG emission reduction parameters: operation hours, type of electrical motors, values of load factor and deviation of standard value of voltage.

Drought allocations using the Systems Impact Assessment Model: Klamath River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Campbell, S.G.

2005-01-01

Water supply and allocation scenarios for the Klamath River, Ore. and Calif., were evaluated using the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM), a decision support system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. SIAM is a set of models with a graphical user interface that simulates water supply and delivery in a managed river system, water quality, and fish production. Simulation results are presented for drought conditions, one aspect of Klamath River water operations. The Klamath River Basin has experienced critically dry conditions in 1992, 1994, and 2001. Drought simulations are useful to estimate the impacts of specific legal or institutional flow constraints. In addition, simulations help to identify potential adverse water quality consequences including evaluating the potential for reducing adverse temperature impacts on anadromous fish. In all drought simulations, water supply was insufficient to fully meet upstream and downstream targets for endangered species.

Pricing strategy in a dual-channel and remanufacturing supply chain system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chengzhi; Xu, Feng; Sheng, Zhaohan

2010-07-01

This article addresses the pricing strategy problems in a supply chain system where the manufacturer sells original products and remanufactured products via indirect retailer channels and direct Internet channels. Due to the complexity of that system, agent technologies that provide a new way for analysing complex systems are used for modelling. Meanwhile, in order to reduce the computational load of searching procedure for optimal prices and profits, a learning search algorithm is designed and implemented within the multi-agent supply chain model. The simulation results show that the proposed model can find out optimal prices of original products and remanufactured products in both channels, which lead to optimal profits of the manufacturer and the retailer. It is also found that the optimal profits are increased by introducing direct channel and remanufacturing. Furthermore, the effect of customer preference, direct channel cost and remanufactured unit cost on optimal prices and profits are examined.

Research on Optimization of Pooling System and Its Application in Drug Supply Chain Based on Big Data Analysis

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Reform of drug procurement is being extensively implemented and expanded in China, especially in today's big data environment. However, the pattern of supply mode innovation lags behind procurement improvement. Problems in financial strain and supply break frequently occur, which affect the stability of drug supply. Drug Pooling System is proposed and applied in a few pilot cities to resolve these problems. From the perspective of supply chain, this study analyzes the process of setting important parameters and sets out the tasks of involved parties in a pooling system according to the issues identified in the pilot run. The approach is based on big data analysis and simulation using system dynamic theory and modeling of Vensim software to optimize system performance. This study proposes a theoretical framework to resolve problems and attempts to provide a valuable reference for future application of pooling systems. PMID:28293258

Calibration of the computer model describing flows in the water supply system; example of the application of a genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orłowska-Szostak, Maria; Orłowski, Ryszard

2017-11-01

The paper discusses some relevant aspects of the calibration of a computer model describing flows in the water supply system. The authors described an exemplary water supply system and used it as a practical illustration of calibration. A range of measures was discussed and applied, which improve the convergence and effective use of calculations in the calibration process and also the effect of such calibration which is the validity of the results obtained. Drawing up results of performed measurements, i.e. estimating pipe roughnesses, the authors performed using the genetic algorithm implementation of which is a software developed by Resan Labs company from Brazil.

Modelling Parameters Characterizing Selected Water Supply Systems in Lower Silesia Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowogoński, Ireneusz; Ogiołda, Ewa

2017-12-01

The work presents issues of modelling water supply systems in the context of basic parameters characterizing their operation. In addition to typical parameters, such as water pressure and flow rate, assessing the age of the water is important, as a parameter of assessing the quality of the distributed medium. The analysis was based on two facilities, including one with a diverse spectrum of consumers, including residential housing and industry. The carried out simulations indicate the possibility of the occurrence of water quality degradation as a result of excessively long periods of storage in the water supply network. Also important is the influence of the irregularity of water use, especially in the case of supplying various kinds of consumers (in the analysed case - mining companies).

Modeling Household Water Consumption in a Hydro-Institutional System - The Case of Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, C. J. A.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Sigel, K.

2014-12-01

Jordan faces an archetypal combination of high water scarcity, with a per capita water availability of around 150 CM per year significantly below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 CM, and strong population growth, especially due to the Syrian refugee crisis. This poses a severe challenge to the already strained institutions in the Jordanian water sector. The Stanford-led G8 Belmont Forum project "Integrated Analysis of Freshwater Resources Sustainability in Jordan" aims at analyzing the potential role of water sector institutions in the pursuit of a sustainable freshwater system performance. In order to do so, the project develops a coupled hydrological and agent-based model, allowing for the exploration of physical as well as socio-economic and institutional scenarios for Jordan's water sector. The part of this integrated model in focus here is the representation of household behavior in Jordan's densely populated capital Amman. Amman's piped water supply is highly intermittent, which also affects its potability. Therefore, Amman's citizens rely on various decentralized modes of supply, depending on their socio-economic characteristics. These include water storage in roof-top and basement tanks, private tanker supply, and the purchase of bottled water. Capturing this combination of centralized and decentralized supply modes is important for an adequate representation of water consumption behavior: Firstly, it will affect the impacts of supply-side and demand-side policies, such as reductions of non-revenue water (including illegal abstractions), the introduction of continuous supply, support for storage enhancements, and water tariff reforms. Secondly, it is also necessary to differentiate the impacts of any policy on the different socio-economic groups in Amman. In order to capture the above aspects of water supply, our model is based on the tiered supply curve approach, developed by Srinivasan et al. in 2011 to model a similar situation in Chennai, India. To tailor our model to the situation in Amman, we rely on sectoral data, existing literature analyses and expert discussions with Jordanian water sector representatives. Our modeling approach allows us to directly compare policies affecting both centralized and decentralized elements of the system within a common framework.

Experimental study of a self-powered and sensing MR-damper-based vibration control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapiński, Bogdan

2011-10-01

The paper deals with a semi-active vibration control system based on a magnetorheological (MR) damper. The study outlines the model and the structure of the system, and describes its experimental investigation. The conceptual design of this system involves harvesting energy from structural vibrations using an energy extractor based on an electromagnetic transduction mechanism (Faraday's law). The system consists of an electromagnetic induction device (EMI) prototype and an MR damper of RD-1005 series manufactured by Lord Corporation. The energy extracted is applied to control the damping characteristics of the MR damper. The model of the system was used to prove that the proposed vibration control system is feasible. The system was realized in the semi-active control strategy with energy recovery and examined through experiments in the cases where the control coil of the MR damper was voltage-supplied directly from the EMI or voltage-supplied via the rectifier, or supplied with a current control system with two feedback loops. The external loop used the sky-hook algorithm whilst the internal loop used the algorithm switching the photorelay, at the output from the rectifier. Experimental results of the proposed vibration control system were compared with those obtained for the passive system (MR damper is off-state) and for the system with an external power source (conventional system) when the control coil of the MR damper was supplied by a DC power supply and analogue voltage amplifier or a DC power supply and a photorelay. It was demonstrated that the system is able to power-supply the MR damper and can adjust itself to structural vibrations. It was also found that, since the signal of induced voltage from the EMI agrees well with that of the relative velocity signal across the damper, the device can act as a 'velocity-sign' sensor.

Shuttle cryogenics supply system optimization study. Volume 5, B-3, part 2: Appendix to programmers manual for math model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

A computer programmer's manual for a digital computer which will permit rapid and accurate parametric analysis of current and advanced attitude control propulsion systems is presented. The concept is for a cold helium pressurized, subcritical cryogen fluid supplied, bipropellant gas-fed attitude control propulsion system. The cryogen fluids are stored as liquids under low pressure and temperature conditions. The mathematical model provides a generalized form for the procedural technique employed in setting up the analysis program.

Impacts of Groundwater Constraints on Saudi Arabia's Low-Carbon Electricity Supply Strategy.

PubMed

Parkinson, Simon C; Djilali, Ned; Krey, Volker; Fricko, Oliver; Johnson, Nils; Khan, Zarrar; Sedraoui, Khaled; Almasoud, Abdulrahman H

2016-02-16

Balancing groundwater depletion, socioeconomic development and food security in Saudi Arabia will require policy that promotes expansion of unconventional freshwater supply options, such as wastewater recycling and desalination. As these processes consume more electricity than conventional freshwater supply technologies, Saudi Arabia's electricity system is vulnerable to groundwater conservation policy. This paper examines strategies for adapting to long-term groundwater constraints in Saudi Arabia's freshwater and electricity supply sectors with an integrated modeling framework. The approach combines electricity and freshwater supply planning models across provinces to provide an improved representation of coupled infrastructure systems. The tool is applied to study the interaction between policy aimed at a complete phase-out of nonrenewable groundwater extraction and concurrent policy aimed at achieving deep reductions in electricity sector carbon emissions. We find that transitioning away from nonrenewable groundwater use by the year 2050 could increase electricity demand by more than 40% relative to 2010 conditions, and require investments similar to strategies aimed at transitioning away from fossil fuels in the electricity sector. Higher electricity demands under groundwater constraints reduce flexibility of supply side options in the electricity sector to limit carbon emissions, making it more expensive to fulfill climate sustainability objectives. The results of this analysis underscore the importance of integrated long-term planning approaches for Saudi Arabia's electricity and freshwater supply systems.

Risk Assessment in Relation to the Effect of Climate Change on Water Shortage in the Taichung Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, J.; Chang, L.; Ho, C.; Niu, M.

2010-12-01

Rapid economic development has stimulated a worldwide greenhouse effect and induced global climate change. Global climate change has increased the range of variation in the quantity of regional river flows between wet and dry seasons, which effects the management of regional water resources. Consequently, the influence of climate change has become an important issue in the management of regional water resources. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to risk analysis of shortage of water supply in the Taichung area. This study proposed a simulation model that integrated three models: weather generator model, surface runoff model, and water distribution model. The proposed model was used to evaluate the efficiency of the current water supply system and the potential effectiveness of two additional plans for water supply: the “artificial lakes” plan and the “cross-basin water transport” plan. A first-order Markov Chain method and two probability distribution models, exponential distribution and normal distribution, were used in the weather generator model. In the surface runoff model, researchers selected the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model (GWLF) to simulate the relationship between quantity of rainfall and basin outflow. A system dynamics model (SD) was applied to the water distribution model. Results of the simulation indicated that climate change could increase the annual quantity of river flow in the Dachia River and Daan River basins. However, climate change could also increase the difference in the quantity of river flow between wet and dry seasons. Simulation results showed that in current system case or in the additional plan cases, shortage status of water for both public and agricultural uses with conditions of climate change will be mostly worse than that without conditions of climate change except for the shortage status for the public use in the current system case. With or without considering the effect of climate change, the additional plans, especially the “cross-basin water transport” plan, for water supply could significantly increase the supply of water for public use. The proposed simulation model and results of analysis in this study could provide valuable reference for decision-makers in regards to risk analysis of regional water supply.

Potassium-Rankine Power Conversion Subsystem Modeling for Nuclear Electric Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Gregory A.

1993-01-01

A potassium-Rankine power conversion system model was developed under Contract No. NAS3-25808 for the NASA-LeRC. This model predicts potassium-Rankine performance for turbine inlet temperatures (TIT) from 1200 - 1600 K, TIT to condenser temperature ratios from 1.25-1.6, power levels from 100 to 10,000 kWe, and lifetimes from 2-10 years. The model is for a Rankine cycle with reheat for turbine stage moisture control. The model assumes heat is supplied from a lithium heat transport loop. The model does not include a heat source or a condenser/heat rejection system model. These must be supplied by the user.

Modelling and analysis of workflow for lean supply chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jinping; Wang, Kanliang; Xu, Lida

2011-11-01

Cross-organisational workflow systems are a component of enterprise information systems which support collaborative business process among organisations in supply chain. Currently, the majority of workflow systems is developed in perspectives of information modelling without considering actual requirements of supply chain management. In this article, we focus on the modelling and analysis of the cross-organisational workflow systems in the context of lean supply chain (LSC) using Petri nets. First, the article describes the assumed conditions of cross-organisation workflow net according to the idea of LSC and then discusses the standardisation of collaborating business process between organisations in the context of LSC. Second, the concept of labelled time Petri nets (LTPNs) is defined through combining labelled Petri nets with time Petri nets, and the concept of labelled time workflow nets (LTWNs) is also defined based on LTPNs. Cross-organisational labelled time workflow nets (CLTWNs) is then defined based on LTWNs. Third, the article proposes the notion of OR-silent CLTWNS and a verifying approach to the soundness of LTWNs and CLTWNs. Finally, this article illustrates how to use the proposed method by a simple example. The purpose of this research is to establish a formal method of modelling and analysis of workflow systems for LSC. This study initiates a new perspective of research on cross-organisational workflow management and promotes operation management of LSC in real world settings.

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Embedding an evolving agricultural system within a water resources planning model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C.; Joyce, B.; Purkey, D.; Dale, L.; Mehta, V.

2008-12-01

The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system is a comprehensive, fully integrated water basin analysis tool. It is a simulation model that includes a robust and flexible representation of water demands from all sectors and flexible, programmable operating rules for infrastructure elements such as reservoirs, canals, and hydropower projects. Additionally, it has watershed rainfall-runoff modeling capabilities that allow all portions of the water infrastructure and demand to be dynamically nested within the underlying hydrological processes. WEAP also allows for linking with other models to provide feedback mechanisms whereby the management regime can be altered to respond to changing water supply conditions. This study presents an application wherein the year-to-year cropping decisions of farmers in California's Central Valley are reactive to changes in water supply conditions. To capture this dynamic, we have included in WEAP a link to an agricultural economics model (the Central Valley Production Model) that relates cropping decisions to water supply conditions (surface water allocations and depth to groundwater) and economic considerations (cost of electricity) at the time of planting. This linked model was used to evaluate changes in water supply and demand in the context of projected climate change over the next century.

Predicting Trihalomethanes (THMs) in the New York City Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukundan, R.; Van Dreason, R.

2013-12-01

Chlorine, a commonly used disinfectant in most water supply systems, can combine with organic carbon to form disinfectant byproducts including carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs). We used water quality data from 24 monitoring sites within the New York City (NYC) water supply distribution system, measured between January 2009 and April 2012, to develop site-specific empirical models for predicting total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels. Terms in the model included various combinations of the following water quality parameters: total organic carbon, pH, specific conductivity, and water temperature. Reasonable estimates of TTHM levels were achieved with overall R2 of about 0.87 and predicted values within 5 μg/L of measured values. The relative importance of factors affecting TTHM formation was estimated by ranking the model regression coefficients. Site-specific models showed improved model performance statistics compared to a single model for the entire system most likely because the single model did not consider locational differences in the water treatment process. Although never out of compliance in 2011, the TTHM levels in the water supply increased following tropical storms Irene and Lee with 45% of the samples exceeding the 80 μg/L Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) in October and November. This increase was explained by changes in water quality parameters, particularly by the increase in total organic carbon concentration and pH during this period.

A study of ecological sanitation as an integrated urban water supply system: case study of sustainable strategy for Kuching City, Sarawak, Malaysia.

PubMed

Seng, Darrien Mah Yau; Putuhena, Frederik Josep; Said, Salim; Ling, Law Puong

2009-03-01

A city consumes a large amount of water. Urban planning and development are becoming more compelling due to the fact of growing competition for water, which has lead to an increasing and conflicting demand. As such, investments in water supply, sanitation and water resources management is a strong potential for a solid return. A pilot project of greywater ecological treatment has been established in Kuching city since 2003. Such a treatment facility opens up an opportunity of wastewater reclamation for reuse as secondary sources of water for non-consumptive purposes. This paper aims to explore the potential of the intended purposes in the newly developed ecological treatment project. By utilizing the Wallingford Software model, InfoWorks WS (Water Supply) is employed to carry out a hydraulic modeling of a hypothetical greywater recycling system as an integrated part of the Kuching urban water supply, where the greywater is treated, recycled and reused in the domestic environment. The modeling efforts have shown water savings of about 40% from the investigated system reinstating that the system presents an alternative water source worth exploring in an urban environment.

Squaring the circle of healthcare supplies.

PubMed

Böhme, Tillmann; Williams, Sharon; Childerhouse, Paul; Deakins, Eric; Towill, Denis

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to use a systems lens to assess the comparative performance of healthcare supply chains and provide guidance for their improvement. A well-established and rigorous multi-method audit methodology, based on the uncertainty circle model, yields an objective assessment of value stream performance in eight Australasian public sector hospitals. Cause-effect analysis identifies the major barriers to achieving smooth, seamless flows. Potentially high-leverage remedial actions identified using systems thinking are examined with the aid of an exemplar case. The majority of the healthcare value streams studied are underperforming compared with those in the European automotive industry. Every public hospital appears to be caught in the grip of vicious circles of system uncertainty, in large part being caused by problems of their own making. The single exception is making good progress towards seamless functional integration, which has been achieved by elevating supply chain management to a core competence; having a clearly articulated supply chain vision; adopting a systems approach; and, managing supplies with accurate information. The small number of cases limits the generalisability of the findings at this time. Hospital supply chain managers endeavouring to achieve smooth and seamless supply flows should attempt to elevate the status of supplies management within their organisation to that of a core competence, and should use accurate information to manage their value streams holistically as a set of interwoven processes. A four-level prism model is proposed as a useful framework for thus improving healthcare supply delivery systems. Material flow concepts originally developed to provide objective assessments of value stream performance in commercial settings are adapted for use in a healthcare setting. The ability to identify exemplar organisations via a context-free uncertainty measure, and to use systems thinking to identify high-leverage solutions, supports the transfer of appropriate best practices even between organisations in dissimilar business and economic settings.

Magma supply and primary melt volatile content at Kilauea Volcano from multiphysical modeling of deformation and gas emissions data (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, K. R.; Poland, M. P.

2013-12-01

Kilauea Volcano has been intensively studied for more than a century, yet many properties of the volcanic system remain poorly constrained, including short-term rates of magma supply, storage, and eruption, and the volatile content of the primary melt. These properties have traditionally been estimated separately using techniques that do not always produce physically-consistent results, and which require that many unknowns be fixed to assumed values. For instance, gas emissions data can provide constraint on rates of magma supply and eruption, but these inferences require assumptions about the primary melt composition. Physics-based models of volcanic systems can be used to relate a wide range of observations and physical properties to one another in a coherent system. In this work we develop a simple, holistic model of magma ascent, storage, and eruption at Kilauea Volcano. The model is capable of predicting CO2 and SO2 emissions and ground deformation and it allows us to use diverse data sets to simultaneously constrain magma fluxes and properties of the melt. Inversions are performed using a Bayesian approach, which yields probability distributions for all estimated parameters. We use observations from the ongoing Pu`u `O`o eruption of Kilauea Volcano and look for changes associated with an inferred surge in magma supply during 2003-2007. Preliminary results suggest that Kilauea's magma supply rate approximately doubled by 2006 compared to 2001 (in agreement with results by Poland et al. [2012]), that only a relatively small percentage of the magma supply was stored in the summit reservoir system, and that the CO2 content of the primary melt may be high (perhaps >1 wt%) compared with previous estimates [e.g., Gerlach et al., 2002]. This work represents a first step towards the development of more realistic physics-based models of the magma plumbing system. Such models will allow us to better utilize and interpret the remarkable diversity and quantity of geological, geochemical, and geophysical observations available at Kilauea Volcano.

Energy-Saving Optimization of Water Supply Pumping Station Life Cycle Based on BIM Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qun, Miao; Wang, Jiayuan; Liu, Chao

2017-12-01

In the urban water supply system, pump station is the main unit of energy consumption. In the background of pushing forward the informatization in China, using BIM technology in design, construction and operations of water supply pumping station, can break through the limitations of the traditional model and effectively achieve the goal of energy conservation and emissions reduction. This work researches the way to solve energy-saving optimization problems in the process of whole life cycle of water supply pumping station based on BIM technology, and put forward the feasible strategies of BIM application in order to realize the healthy and sustainable development goals by establishing the BIM model of water supply pumping station of Qingdao Guzhenkou water supply project.

The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

PubMed Central

Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. PMID:27219341

The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

PubMed

Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

2016-07-12

To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modelling of electrical supply systems to optimize the site planning process for the "power to mobility" technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, Florian; Zink, Roland

2016-04-01

The transformation of the energy sector towards decentralized renewable energies (RE) requires also storage systems to ensure security of supply. The new "Power to Mobility" (PtM) technology is one potential solution to use electrical overproduction to produce methane for i.e. gas vehicles. Motivated by these fact, the paper presents a methodology for a GIS-based temporal modelling of the power grid, to optimize the site planning process for the new PtM-technology. The modelling approach is based on a combination of the software QuantumGIS for the geographical and topological energy supply structure and OpenDSS for the net modelling. For a case study (work in progress) of the city of Straubing (Lower Bavaria) the parameters of the model are quantified. The presentation will discuss the methodology as well as the first results with a view to the application on a regional scale.

Isotopic metrics for structure, connectivity, and residence time in urban water supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, Gabriel; Kennedy, Casey; Good, Stephen; Ehleringer, James

2014-05-01

Public water supply systems are the life-blood of urban areas, accessing, managing, and distributing water from an often complex array of sources to provide on-demand access to safe, potable water at the point-of-use. Water managers are faced with a wide range of potential threats, ranging from climate change to infrastructure failure to supply contamination. Information on the structure of supply and conveyance systems, connectivity within these systems, and links between the point-of-use and environmental water sources are thus critical to assessing the stability of water supplies and responding efficiently and effectively to water supply threats. We report datasets documenting stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of public supply water in cities of the United States across a range of scales. The data show a wide range of spatial and temporal variability that can be attributed to a combination of regional hydroclimate and water supply characteristics. Comparisons of public supply waters with model-based estimates of the isotopic composition of regional water sources suggests that major factors reflected in the tap water data include the degree of fragmentation of natural and man-made storage and conveyance systems, inter-basinal transfer of water, evaporative losses, and the total residence time of the natural and artificial systems being exploited. Because each of these factors contributes to determining the sustainability of water supply systems and their sensitivity to environmental disturbance, we propose a set of isotope-based metrics that can be used to efficiently assess and monitor the characteristics of public-supply systems in water security assessments and in support of management, planning, and outreach activities.

Using SCOR as a Supply Chain Management Framework for Government Agency Contract Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxton, Joseph; Tucker, Brian

2010-01-01

This paper will present a model that uses the Supply-Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model as a foundation for a framework to illustrate the information needed throughout a product lifecycle to support a healthy supply chain management function and the subsequent contract requirements to enable it. It will also show where in the supply chain the information must be extracted. The ongoing case study used to exemplify the model is NASA's (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Ares I program for human spaceflight. Effective supply chain management and contract requirements are ongoing opportunities for continuous improvement within government agencies, specifically development of systems for human spaceflight operations. Multiple reports from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reinforce this importance. The SCOR model is a framework for describing a supply chain with process building blocks and business activities. It provides a set of metrics for measuring supply chain performance and best practices for continuously improving. This paper expands the application of the SCOR to also provide the framework for defining information needed from different levels of the supply chain and at different phases of the lifecycle. These needs can be incorporated into contracts to enable more effective supply chain management. Depending on the phase of the lifecycle, effective supply chain management will require involvement from different levels of the organization and different levels of the supply chain.

Application of SWMM in Water Resources Management: A Community Scale Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuan-Hua; Tung, Ching-Pin

2015-04-01

Under the impacts of climate change, water resource management faces a serious challenge. Due to extremely events, the water supply system is hard to maintain stable water supply. In order to decrease the pressure of centralized water supply system, the water demand management should be strengthened. The storm water management model (SWMM) is widely used to simulate surface runoff, and it has been improved to have the ability of continuous simulation. In this study, storm water management model (SWMM) is applied to simulate surface runoff and integrated into the framework of water resource management for a rural community scale. In a rural community, the surface runoff may be collected and treated by wetlands for later uses. The reclaimed water from wetlands may become a new water resource for non-contact domestic water uses, or be reused to meet irrigating water demand. Thus, the water demand from the centralized system can be reduced, and the water supply system may have lower risk under the climate change. On the other hand, SWMM can simulate the measures of low impact development (LID), such as bio-retention cell, green roof, rain barrel etc. The decentralized measures, LID, may not only reduce the runoff and delay the peak flow, and but also provide the service of water supply. In this study, LID is applied to water resource management of a rural community, and combined with the centralized water supply system. The results show the application of SWMM to water resources management in a community scale study. Besides, the effectiveness of LID on water supply is also evaluated.

KTX circuit model and discharge waveform prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Wei; Lan, T.; Mao, W. Z.; You, W.; Li, H.; Liu, A. D.; Xie, J. L.; Wan, S. D.; Liu, W. D.; Yang, L.; Fu, P.; Xiao, C. J.; Ding, W. X.

2013-10-01

The Keda Torus eXperiment (KTX) is a constructing reversed field pinch (RFP) device in University of Science and Technology of China. The KTX power supply system includes the Ohmic heating, field shaping and toroidal power supply systems, which produce the Ohmic field, equilibrium field and toroidal field, respectively. The detailed circuit model will be introduced in this poster. Another purpose is to predict its discharge waveforms using the modified Bessel function mode (MBFM), which describes the evolution of plasma current and magnetic flux in RFP base on Taylor theory. Furthermore, the power supply requirements of external field shaping winding are also predicted in the model, which will be very helpful for the design of plasma equilibrium controlling system. Supported by ITER-China program (No. 2011GB106000), NNSFC (Nos. 10990210, 10990211, 10335060 and 10905057), CPSF (No. 20080440104), YIF (No. WK2030040019) and KIPCAS (No. kjcx-yw-n28).

ESB-based Sensor Web integration for the prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability.

PubMed

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-08-15

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application.

ESB-Based Sensor Web Integration for the Prediction of Electric Power Supply System Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-01-01

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application. PMID:23955435

High Resolution Modelling of Crop Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirmasoudi, S. S.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

2014-12-01

Crop production is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climatic variability and change. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases are causing increases in global temperature. In western North America, water supply is largely derived from mountain snowmelt. Climate change will have a significant impact on mountain snowpack and subsequently, the snow-derived water supply. This will strain water supplies and increase water demand in areas with substantial irrigation agriculture. Increasing temperatures may create heat stress for some crops regardless of soil water supply, and increasing surface O3 and other pollutants may damage crops and ecosystems. CO2 fertilization may or may not be an advantage in future. This work is part of a larger study that will address a series of questions based on a range of future climate scenarios for several watersheds in western North America. The key questions are: (1) how will snowmelt and rainfall runoff vary in future; (2) how will seasonal and inter-annual soil water supply vary, and how might that impacts food supplies; (3) how might heat stress impact (some) crops even with adequate soil water; (4) will CO2 fertilization alter crop yields; and (5) will pollution loads, particularly O3, cause meaningful changes to crop yields? The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) Spatial Hydrometeorological Model is an innovative, efficient, high-resolution model designed to assess climate driven changes in mountain snowpack derived water supplies. We will link GENESYS to the CROPWAT crop model system to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity for a range of future climate scenarios. Literature bases studies will be utilised to develop approximate crop response functions for heat stress, CO2 fertilization and for O3 damages. The overall objective is to create modeling systems that allows meaningful assessment of agricultural productivity at a watershed scale under a range of climate scenarios.

Augmented halal food traceability system: analysis and design using UML

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, Y. V.; Fauzi, A. M.; Irawadi, T. T.; Djatna, T.

2018-04-01

Augmented halal food traceability is expanding the range of halal traceability in food supply chain where currently only available for tracing from the source of raw material to the industrial warehouse or inbound logistic. The halal traceability system must be developed in the integrated form that includes inbound and outbound logistics. The objective of this study was to develop a reliable initial model of integrated traceability system of halal food supply chain. The method was based on unified modeling language (UML) such as use case, sequence, and business process diagram. A goal programming model was formulated considering two objective functions which include (1) minimization of risk of halal traceability failures happened potentially during outbound logistics activities and (2) maximization of quality of halal product information. The result indicates the supply of material is the most important point to be considered in minimizing the risk of failure of halal food traceability system whereas no risk observed in manufacturing and distribution.

A hydrologic-economic modeling approach for analysis of urban water supply dynamics in Chennai, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, Veena; Gorelick, Steven M.; Goulder, Lawrence

2010-07-01

In this paper, we discuss a challenging water resources problem in a developing world city, Chennai, India. The goal is to reconstruct past system behavior and diagnose the causes of a major water crisis. In order to do this, we develop a hydrologic-engineering-economic model to address the complexity of urban water supply arising from consumers' dependence on multiple interconnected sources of water. We integrate different components of the urban water system: water flowing into the reservoir system; diversion and distribution by the public water utility; groundwater flow in the aquifer beneath the city; supply, demand, and prices in the informal tanker-truck-based water market; and consumer behavior. Both the economic and physical impacts of consumers' dependence on multiple sources of water are quantified. The model is calibrated over the period 2002-2006 using a range of hydrologic and socio-economic data. The model's results highlight the inadequacy of the reservoir system and the buffering role played by the urban aquifer and consumers' coping investments during multiyear droughts.

Development and Use of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System by the National Weather Service to Support the New York City Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shedd, R.; Reed, S. M.; Porter, J. H.

2015-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) has been working for several years on the development of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). The objective of HEFS is to provide ensemble river forecasts incorporating the best precipitation and temperature forcings at any specific time horizon. For the current implementation, this includes the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). One of the core partners that has been working with the NWS since the beginning of the development phase of HEFS is the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) which is responsible for the complex water supply system for New York City. The water supply system involves a network of reservoirs in both the Delaware and Hudson River basins. At the same time that the NWS was developing HEFS, NYCDEP was working on enhancing the operations of their water supply reservoirs through the development of a new Operations Support Tool (OST). OST is designed to guide reservoir system operations to ensure an adequate supply of high-quality drinking water for the city, as well as to meet secondary objectives for reaches downstream of the reservoirs assuming the primary water supply goals can be met. These secondary objectives include fisheries and ecosystem support, enhanced peak flow attenuation beyond that provided natively by the reservoirs, salt front management, and water supply for other cities. Since January 2014, the NWS Northeast and Middle Atlantic River Forecast Centers have provided daily one year forecasts from HEFS to NYCDEP. OST ingests these forecasts, couples them with near-real-time environmental and reservoir system data, and drives models of the water supply system. The input of ensemble forecasts results in an ensemble of model output, from which information on the range and likelihood of possible future system states can be extracted. This type of probabilistic information provides system managers with additional information not available from deterministic forecasts and allows managers to better assess risk, and provides greater context for decision-making than has been available in the past. HEFS has allowed NYCDEP water supply managers to make better decisions on reservoir operations than they likely would have in the past, using only deterministic forecasts.

Chaos in vibrating systems with a limited power-supply.

PubMed

Krasnopolskaya, Tatyana S.; Shvets, Alexander Yu.

1993-07-01

New models and properties of forced oscillations of the various physical systems (pendulum and piezoceramic transducer) due to the interaction with the excitation device of limited power-supply are investigated in details. Using an analysis of the largest Lyapunov exponent for a complicated system-vibrating subsystem and exciter-the regions for three steady state regimes are determined, namely: stationary, periodic and chaotic.

The New York City Operations Support Tool: Supporting Water Supply Operations for Millions in an Era of Changing Patterns in Hydrological Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matonse, A. H.; Porter, J. H.; Frei, A.

2015-12-01

Providing an average 1.1 billion gallons (~ 4.2 x 106 cubic meters) of drinking water per day to approximately nine million people in New York City (NYC) and four upstate counties, the NYC water supply is among the world's largest unfiltered systems. In addition to providing a reliable water supply in terms of water quantity and quality, the city has to fulfill other flow objectives to serve downstream communities. At times, such as during extreme hydrological events, water quality issues may restrict water usage for parts of the system. To support a risk-based water supply decision making process NYC has developed the Operations Support Tool (OST). OST combines a water supply systems model with reservoir water quality models, near real time data ingestion, data base management and an ensemble hydrological forecast. A number of reports have addressed the frequency and intensities of extreme hydrological events across the continental US. In the northeastern US studies have indicated an increase in the frequency of extremely large precipitation and streamflow events during the most recent decades. During this presentation we describe OST and, using case studies we demonstrate how this tool has been useful to support operational decisions. We also want to motivate a discussion about how undergoing changes in patterns of hydrological extreme events elevate the challenge faced by water supply managers and the role of the scientific community to integrate nonstationarity approaches in hydrologic forecast and modeling.

Interplanetary Supply Chain Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galluzzi, Michael C.

2018-01-01

Emphasis on KSC ground processing operations, reduced spares up-mass lift requirements and campaign-level flexible path perspective for space systems support as Regolith-based ISM is achieved by; Network modeling for sequencing space logistics and in-space logistics nodal positioning to include feedstock. Economic modeling to assess ISM 3D printing adaption and supply chain risk.

Integrated supply chain design for commodity chemicals production via woody biomass fast pyrolysis and upgrading.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanan; Hu, Guiping; Brown, Robert C

2014-04-01

This study investigates the optimal supply chain design for commodity chemicals (BTX, etc.) production via woody biomass fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing pathway. The locations and capacities of distributed preprocessing hubs and integrated biorefinery facilities are optimized with a mixed integer linear programming model. In this integrated supply chain system, decisions on the biomass chipping methods (roadside chipping vs. facility chipping) are also explored. The economic objective of the supply chain model is to maximize the profit for a 20-year chemicals production system. In addition to the economic objective, the model also incorporates an environmental objective of minimizing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, analyzing the trade-off between the economic and environmental considerations. The capital cost, operating cost, and revenues for the biorefinery facilities are based on techno-economic analysis, and the proposed approach is illustrated through a case study of Minnesota, with Minneapolis-St. Paul serving as the chemicals distribution hub. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Model of Gas Supply Capacity Simulation In Regional Energy Security Framework: Policy Studies PT. X Cirebon Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuryadin; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

2017-10-01

The needs of energy are increasing every year. The unavailability of energy will cause economic losses and weaken energy security. To overcome the availability of gas supply in the future, planning are cruacially needed. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the system, so that the process of gas distribution is running properly. In this research, system dynamic method will be used to measure how much supply capacity planning is needed until 2050, with parameters of demand in industrial, household and commercial sectors. From the model obtained PT.X Cirebon area in 2031 was not able to meet the needs of gas customers in the Cirebon region, as well as with Businnes as usual scenario, the ratio of gas fulfillment only until 2027. The implementation of the national energy policy that is the use of NRE as government intervention in the model is produced up to 2035 PT.X Cirebon area is still able to supply the gas needs of its customers.

Shuttle cryogenics supply system. Optimization study. Volume 5 B-2, part 1: Appendix programmers manual for math model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

An appendix to the programmers manual for the mathematical model pertaining to the design of cryogenic supply systems for spacecraft is presented. The program listing was produced using the EXEC-8 LISTALL processor which lists a file in alphabetical order. Since the processor does not differentiate between subroutines, functions, and procedure definition processors, each subprogram has been relabeled to clearly identify the type of symbolic listing.

An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand.

PubMed

Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen; Crawford, James M; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B; Wheeler, Thomas M; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B; Robboy, Stanley J

2015-01-01

Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

PubMed Central

Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

2015-01-01

Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

Perspectives for geographically oriented management of fusarium mycotoxins in the cereal supply chain.

PubMed

van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Booij, C J H

2010-06-01

This article provides an overview of available systems for management of Fusarium mycotoxins in the cereal grain supply chain, with an emphasis on the use of predictive mathematical modeling. From the state of the art, it proposes future developments in modeling and management and their challenges. Mycotoxin contamination in cereal grain-based feed and food products is currently managed and controlled by good agricultural practices, good manufacturing practices, hazard analysis critical control points, and by checking and more recently by notification systems and predictive mathematical models. Most of the predictive models for Fusarium mycotoxins in cereal grains focus on deoxynivalenol in wheat and aim to help growers make decisions about the application of fungicides during cultivation. Future developments in managing Fusarium mycotoxins should include the linkage between predictive mathematical models and geographical information systems, resulting into region-specific predictions for mycotoxin occurrence. The envisioned geographically oriented decision support system may incorporate various underlying models for specific users' demands and regions and various related databases to feed the particular models with (geographically oriented) input data. Depending on the user requirements, the system selects the best fitting model and available input information. Future research areas include organizing data management in the cereal grain supply chain, developing predictive models for other stakeholders (taking into account the period up to harvest), other Fusarium mycotoxins, and cereal grain types, and understanding the underlying effects of the regional component in the models.

Mathematical Modeling of Food Supply for Long Term Space Missions Using Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruthirds, John E.

2003-01-01

A habitat for long duration missions which utilizes Advanced Life Support (ALS), the Bioregenerative Planetary Life Support Systems Test Complex (BIO-Plex), is currently being built at JSC. In this system all consumables will be recycled and reused. In support of this effort, a menu is being planned utilizing ALS crops that will meet nutritional and psychological requirements. The need exists in the food system to identify specific physical quantities that define life support systems from an analysis and modeling perspective. Once these quantities are defined, they need to be fed into a mathematical model that takes into consideration other systems in the BIO-Plex. This model, if successful, will be used to understand the impacts of changes in the food system on the other systems and vice versa. The Equivalent System Mass (ESM) metric has been used to describe systems and subsystems, including the food system options, in terms of the single parameter, mass. There is concern that this approach might not adequately address the important issues of food quality and psychological impact on crew morale of a supply of fiesh food items. In fact, the mass of food can also depend on the quality of the food. This summer faculty fellow project will involve creating an appropriate mathematical model for the food plan developed by the Food Processing System for BIO-Plex. The desired outcome of this work will be a quantitative model that can be applied to the various options of supplying food on long-term space missions.

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

2013-11-01

An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River Basin sees an increasing sensitivity to changes in demand in future periods. It further shows that the supply deficit is six times as sensitive as the actual supply to changes in flow and demand. A spatial analysis of the supply deficit demonstrates vulnerabilities of urban areas located along mainstream with limited storage.

A stock-and-flow simulation model of the US blood supply.

PubMed

Simonetti, Arianna; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A; Walderhaug, Mark

2014-03-01

Lack of reporting requirements for the amount of blood stored in blood banks and hospitals poses challenges to effectively monitor the US blood supply. Effective strategies to minimize collection and donation disruptions in the supply require an understanding of the daily amount of blood available in the system. A stock-and-flow simulation model of the US blood supply was developed to obtain estimates of the daily on-hand availability of blood, with uncertainty and by ABO/Rh type. The model simulated potential impact on supply of using different blood management practices for transfusion: first in-first out (FIFO), using the oldest stored red blood cell units first; non-FIFO likely oldest, preferentially selecting older blood; and non-FIFO likely newest, preferentially selecting younger blood. Simulation results showed higher estimates of the steady-state of the blood supply level for FIFO (1,630,000 units, 95% prediction interval [PI] 1,610,000-1,650,000) than non-FIFO scenarios (likely oldest, 1,530,000 units, 95% PI 1,500,000-1,550,000; and likely newest, 1,190,000 units, 95% PI 1,160,000-1,220,000), either for overall blood or by blood types. To our knowledge, this model represents a first attempt to evaluate the impact of different blood management practices on daily availability and distribution of blood in the US blood supply. The average storage time before blood is being issued was influenced by blood management practices, for preferences of blood that is younger and also that use specific blood types. The model also suggests which practice could best approximate the current blood management system and may serve as useful tool for blood management. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Using System Dynamic Model and Neural Network Model to Analyse Water Scarcity in Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Tang, C.; Xu, L.; Ye, S.

2017-07-01

Many parts of the world are facing the problem of Water Scarcity. Analysing Water Scarcity quantitatively is an important step to solve the problem. Water scarcity in a region is gauged by WSI (water scarcity index), which incorporate water supply and water demand. To get the WSI, Neural Network Model and SDM (System Dynamic Model) that depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand are developed to depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand. The uneven distribution of water resource and water demand across a region leads to an uneven distribution of WSI within this region. To predict WSI for the future, logistic model, Grey Prediction, and statistics are applied in predicting variables. Sudan suffers from severe water scarcity problem with WSI of 1 in 2014, water resource unevenly distributed. According to the result of modified model, after the intervention, Sudan’s water situation will become better.

Harnessing the hybrid power supply systems of utility grid and photovoltaic panels at retrofit residential single family building in Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pangaribuan, A. B.; Rahmat, R. F.; Lidya, M. S.; Zálešák, M.

2017-01-01

The paper describes improvisation mode of energy supply source by collaboration between national utility grid as represented by fossil fuels and PV as independent renewable power resource in order to aim the energy consumptions efficiently in retrofit single family house. In this case, one existing single family house model in Medan, Indonesia was observed for the possibility of future refurbishment. The eco-design version of the house model and prediction analyses regarding nearby potential renewable energy resource (solar system) had been made using Autodesk Revit MEP 2015, Climate Consultant 6.0 and Green Building Studio Analysis. Economical evaluation of using hybrid power supply is discussed as well.

Dynamic Models and Coordination Analysis of Reverse Supply Chain with Remanufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Nina

In this paper, we establish a reverse chain system with one manufacturer and one retailer under demand uncertainties. Distinguishing between the recycling process of the retailer and the remanufacturing process of the manufacturer, we formulate a two-stage dynamic model for reverse supply chain based on remanufacturing. Using buyback contract as coordination mechanism and applying dynamic programming the optimal decision problems for each stage are analyzed. It concluded that the reverse supply chain system could be coordinated under the given condition. Finally, we carry out numerical calculations to analyze the expected profits for the manufacturer and the retailer under different recovery rates and recovery prices and the outcomes validate the theoretical analyses.

Systems Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, R.L.

1998-03-17

The Systems Studies Activity had two objectives: (1) to investigate nontechnical barriers to the deployment of biomass production and supply systems and (2) to enhance and extend existing systems models of bioenergy supply and use. For the first objective, the Activity focused on existing bioenergy markets. Four projects were undertaken: a comparative analysis of bioenergy in Sweden and Austria; a one-day workshop on nontechnical barriers jointly supported by the Production Systems Activity; the development and testing of a framework for analyzing barriers and drivers to bioenergy markets; and surveys of wood pellet users in Sweden, Austria and the US. Formore » the second objective, two projects were undertaken. First, the Activity worked with the Integrated BioEnergy Systems (TBS) Activity of TEA Bioenergy Task XIII to enhance the BioEnergy Assessment Model (BEAM). This model is documented in the final report of the IBS Activity. The Systems Studies Activity contributed to enhancing the feedstock portion of the model by developing a coherent set of willow, poplar, and switchgrass production modules relevant to both the US and the UK. The Activity also developed a pretreatment module for switchgrass. Second, the Activity sponsored a three-day workshop on modeling bioenergy systems with the objectives of providing an overview of the types of models used to evaluate bioenergy and promoting communication among bioenergy modelers. There were nine guest speakers addressing different types of models used to evaluate different aspects of bioenergy, ranging from technoeconomic models based on the ASPEN software to linear programming models to develop feedstock supply curves for the US. The papers from this workshop have been submitted to Biomass and Bioenergy and are under editorial review.« less

Using a Content Management System for Integrated Water Quantity, Quality and Instream Flows Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgholzer, R.; Brogan, C. O.; Scott, D.; Keys, T.

2017-12-01

With increased population and water demand, in-stream flows can become depleted by consumptive uses and dilution of permitted discharges may be compromised. Reduced flows downstream of water withdrawals may increase the violation rate of bacterial concentrations from direct deposition by livestock and wildlife. Water storage reservoirs are constructed and operated to insure more stable supplies for consumptive demands and dilution flows, however their use comes at the cost of increased evaporative losses, potential for thermal pollution, interrupted fish migration, and reduced flooding events that are critical to maintain habitat and water quality. Due to this complex interrelationship between water quantity, quality and instream habitat comprehensive multi-disciplinary models must be developed to insure long-term sustainability of water resources and to avoid conflicts between drinking water, food and energy production, and aquatic biota. The Commonwealth of Virginia funded the expansion of the Chesapeake Bay Program Phase 5 model to cover the entire state, and has been using this model to evaluate water supply permit and planning since 2009. This integrated modeling system combines a content management system (Drupal and PHP) for model input data and leverages the modularity of HSPF with the custom segmentation and parameterization routines programmed by modelers working with the Chesapeake Bay Program. The model has been applied to over 30 Virginia Water Permits, instream flows and aquatic habitat models and a Virginias 30 year water supply demand projections. Future versions will leverage the Bay Model auto-calibration routines for adding small-scale water supply and TMDL models, utilize climate change scenarios, and integrate Virginia's reservoir management modules into the Chesapeake Bay watershed model, feeding projected demand and operational changes back up to EPA models to improve the realism of future Bay-wide simulations.

A new strategy of glucose supply in a microbial fermentation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasbawati, Gunawan, A. Y.; Sidarto, K. A.; Hertadi, R.

2015-09-01

Strategy of glucose supply to achieve an optimal productivity of ethanol production of a yeast cell is one of the main features in a microbial fermentation process. Beside a known continuous glucose supply, in this study we consider a new supply strategy so called the on-off supply. An optimal control theory is applied to the fermentation system to find the optimal rate of glucose supply and time of supply. The optimization problem is solved numerically using Differential Evolutionary algorithm. We find two alternative solutions that we can choose to get the similar result: either long period process with low supply or short period process with high glucose supply.

Modeling Transportation Systems : an Overview

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1971-06-01

The purpose of this report is to outline the role of systems analysis and mathematical modeling in the planning of transportation systems. The planning process is divided into three sectors (demand, supply, and policy) reflecting the demand for trans...

A two-stage predictive model to simultaneous control of trihalomethanes in water treatment plants and distribution systems: adaptability to treatment processes.

PubMed

Domínguez-Tello, Antonio; Arias-Borrego, Ana; García-Barrera, Tamara; Gómez-Ariza, José Luis

2017-10-01

The trihalomethanes (TTHMs) and others disinfection by-products (DBPs) are formed in drinking water by the reaction of chlorine with organic precursors contained in the source water, in two consecutive and linked stages, that starts at the treatment plant and continues in second stage along the distribution system (DS) by reaction of residual chlorine with organic precursors not removed. Following this approach, this study aimed at developing a two-stage empirical model for predicting the formation of TTHMs in the water treatment plant and subsequently their evolution along the water distribution system (WDS). The aim of the two-stage model was to improve the predictive capability for a wide range of scenarios of water treatments and distribution systems. The two-stage model was developed using multiple regression analysis from a database (January 2007 to July 2012) using three different treatment processes (conventional and advanced) in the water supply system of Aljaraque area (southwest of Spain). Then, the new model was validated using a recent database from the same water supply system (January 2011 to May 2015). The validation results indicated no significant difference in the predictive and observed values of TTHM (R 2 0.874, analytical variance <17%). The new model was applied to three different supply systems with different treatment processes and different characteristics. Acceptable predictions were obtained in the three distribution systems studied, proving the adaptability of the new model to the boundary conditions. Finally the predictive capability of the new model was compared with 17 other models selected from the literature, showing satisfactory results prediction and excellent adaptability to treatment processes.

Shuttle cryogenic supply system optimization study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

Technical information on different cryogenic supply systems is presented for selecting representative designs. Parametric data and sensitivity studies, and an evaluation of related technology status are included. An integrated mathematical model for hardware program support was developed. The life support system, power generation, and propellant supply are considered. The major study conclusions are the following: Optimum integrated systems tend towards maximizing liquid storage. Vacuum jacketing of tanks is a major effect on integrated systems. Subcritical storage advantages over supercritical storage decrease as the quantity of propellant or reactant decreases. Shuttle duty cycles are not severe. The operational mode has a significant effect on reliability. Components are available for most subsystem applications. Subsystems and components require a minimum amount of technology development.

Geospatial economics of the woody biomass supply in Kansas -- A case study

Treesearch

Olga Khaliukova; Darci Paull; Sarah L. Lewis-Gonzales; Nicolas Andre; Larry E. Biles; Timothy M. Young; James H. Perdue

2017-01-01

This research assessed the geospatial supply of cellulosic feedstocks for potential mill sites in Kansas (KS), with procurement zones extending to Arkansas (AR), Iowa(IA), Missouri(MO), Oklahoma (OK), and Nebraska (NE). A web-based modeling system, the Kansas Biomass Supply Assessment Tool, was developed to identify least-cost sourcing areas for logging residues and...

Simulation of switching overvoltages in the mine electric power supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanchenko, D. I.; Novozhilov, N. G.

2017-02-01

Overvoltages occur in mine power supply systems during switching off consumers with high inductive load, such as transformers, reactors and electrical machines. Overvoltages lead to an increase of insulation degradation rate and may cause electric faults, power outage, fire and explosion of methane and coal dust. This paper is dedicated to simulation of vacuum circuit breaker switching overvoltages in a mine power supply system by means of Simulink MATLAB. The model of the vacuum circuit breaker implements simulation of transient recovery voltage, current chopping and an electric arc. Obtained results were compared to available experimental data.

Independent Verification and Validation of the Global Deployment Analysis System (GDAS). Phase 2 Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-28

and examined various models as possible alternatives to TRANSMO. None of the candidate models met all CAA’s requirements, so a major TERP recommendation...will simulate the mobilization of U.S. forces, deployment of forces and supplies across an intertheater network, and deployment of forces and... supplies to the combat zone. 1.2 Phase !1 IV&V Summary Potomac Systems Engineering, Inc. (PSE), is providing IV&V support to CAA during the GDAS development

Mathematical model for calculation of the heat-hydraulic modes of heating points of heat-supplying systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shalaginova, Z. I.

2016-03-01

The mathematical model and calculation method of the thermal-hydraulic modes of heat points, based on the theory of hydraulic circuits, being developed at the Melentiev Energy Systems Institute are presented. The redundant circuit of the heat point was developed, in which all possible connecting circuits (CC) of the heat engineering equipment and the places of possible installation of control valve were inserted. It allows simulating the operating modes both at central heat points (CHP) and individual heat points (IHP). The configuration of the desired circuit is carried out automatically by removing the unnecessary links. The following circuits connecting the heating systems (HS) are considered: the dependent circuit (direct and through mixing elevator) and independent one (through the heater). The following connecting circuits of the load of hot water supply (HWS) were considered: open CC (direct water pumping from pipelines of heat networks) and a closed CC with connecting the HWS heaters on single-level (serial and parallel) and two-level (sequential and combined) circuits. The following connecting circuits of the ventilation systems (VS) were also considered: dependent circuit and independent one through a common heat exchanger with HS load. In the heat points, water temperature regulators for the hot water supply and ventilation and flow regulators for the heating system, as well as to the inlet as a whole, are possible. According to the accepted decomposition, the model of the heat point is an integral part of the overall heat-hydraulic model of the heat-supplying system having intermediate control stages (CHP and IHP), which allows to consider the operating modes of the heat networks of different levels connected with each other through CHP as well as connected through IHP of consumers with various connecting circuits of local systems of heat consumption: heating, ventilation and hot water supply. The model is implemented in the Angara data-processing complex. An example of the multilevel calculation of the heat-hydraulic modes of main heat networks and those connected to them through central heat point distribution networks in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii is examined.

Manpower Impact Assessment Model (MIAM). An Analytic Model for Assessing the Effect of Supply Policy Changes on Manpower Requirements at Retail Supply Activities

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-01

to Management Science (Third Edition). St. Paul: West Publishing Co., 1982. 2. Bennett, John L. (Editor). Building Decision Support Systems. Reading...Starts 700 DCCs 5000 Units Inventoried 50000 103 * * Bibliography /, 1. Anderson, David R., Dennis J. Sweeney, and Thomas A. Williams. An Introduction

Generalized Simulation Model for a Switched-Mode Power Supply Design Course Using MATLAB/SIMULINK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liao, Wei-Hsin; Wang, Shun-Chung; Liu, Yi-Hua

2012-01-01

Switched-mode power supplies (SMPS) are becoming an essential part of many electronic systems as the industry drives toward miniaturization and energy efficiency. However, practical SMPS design courses are seldom offered. In this paper, a generalized MATLAB/SIMULINK modeling technique is first presented. A proposed practical SMPS design course at…

Biomass supply chain optimisation for Organosolv-based biorefineries.

PubMed

Giarola, Sara; Patel, Mayank; Shah, Nilay

2014-05-01

This work aims at providing a Mixed Integer Linear Programming modelling framework to help define planning strategies for the development of sustainable biorefineries. The up-scaling of an Organosolv biorefinery was addressed via optimisation of the whole system economics. Three real world case studies were addressed to show the high-level flexibility and wide applicability of the tool to model different biomass typologies (i.e. forest fellings, cereal residues and energy crops) and supply strategies. Model outcomes have revealed how supply chain optimisation techniques could help shed light on the development of sustainable biorefineries. Feedstock quality, quantity, temporal and geographical availability are crucial to determine biorefinery location and the cost-efficient way to supply the feedstock to the plant. Storage costs are relevant for biorefineries based on cereal stubble, while wood supply chains present dominant pretreatment operations costs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Considerations of the Skilled Manpower Needs for Water Supply Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watters, Gregor

1981-01-01

General methods for determining skilled labor needs for water supply and wastewater treatment plant operation as applied in Turkey are outlined along with a model program for training personnel to meet these needs. (DC)

Ethanol distribution, dispensing, and use: analysis of a portion of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain using system dynamics.

PubMed

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain-represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner's decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer's choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles.

Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain–represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner’s decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer’s choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles. PMID:22606230

Design and modeling of sustainable bioethanol supply chain by minimizing the total ecological footprint in life cycle perspective.

PubMed

Ren, Jingzheng; Manzardo, Alessandro; Toniolo, Sara; Scipioni, Antonio; Tan, Shiyu; Dong, Lichun; Gao, Suzhao

2013-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for designing the most sustainable bioethanol supply chain. Taking into consideration of the possibility of multiple-feedstock, multiple transportation modes, multiple alternative technologies, multiple transport patterns and multiple waste disposal manners in bioethanol systems, this study developed a model for designing the most sustainable bioethanol supply chain by minimizing the total ecological footprint under some prerequisite constraints including satisfying the goal of the stakeholders', the limitation of resources and energy, the capacity of warehouses, the market demand and some technological constraints. And an illustrative case of multiple-feedstock bioethanol system has been studied by the proposed method, and a global best solution by which the total ecological footprint is the minimal has been obtained. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Development of medical supplies management system].

PubMed

Zhong, Jianping; Shen, Beijun; Zhu, Huili

2012-11-01

This paper adopts advanced information technology to manage medical supplies, in order to improve the medical supplies management level and reduce material cost. It develops a Medical Supplies Management System with B/S and C/S mixed structure, optimizing material management process, building large equipment performance evaluation model, providing interface solution with HIS, and realizing real-time information briefing of high value material's consumption. The medical materials are managed during its full life-cycle. The material consumption of the clinical departments is monitored real-timely. Through the closed-loop management with pre-event budget, mid-event control and after-event analysis, it realizes the final purpose of management yielding benefit.

Geodesy - the key for constraining rates of magma supply, storage, and eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poland, Michael; Anderson, Kyle

2016-04-01

Volcanology is an inherently interdisciplinary science that requires joint analysis of diverse physical and chemical datasets to infer subsurface processes from surface observations. Among the diversity of data that can be collected, however, geodetic data are critical for elucidating the main elements of a magmatic plumbing system because of their sensitivity to subsurface changes in volume and mass. In particular, geodesy plays a key role in determining rates of magma supply, storage, and eruption. For example, surface displacements are critical for estimating the volume changes and locations of subsurface magma storage zones, and remotely sensed radar data make it possible to place significant bounds on eruptive volumes. Combining these measurements with geochemical indicators of magma composition and volatile content enables modeling of magma fluxes throughout a volcano's plumbing system, from source to surface. We combined geodetic data (particularly InSAR) with prior geochemical constraints and measured gas emissions from Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai`i, to develop a probabilistic model that relates magma supply, storage, and eruption over time. We found that the magma supply rate to Kīlauea during 2006 was 35-100% greater than during 2000-2001, with coincident increased rates of subsurface magma storage and eruption at the surface. By 2012, this surge in supply had ended, and supply rates were below those of 2000-2001; magma storage and eruption rates were similarly reduced. These results demonstrate the connection between magma supply, storage, and eruption, and the overall importance of magma supply with respect to volcanic hazards at Kīlauea and similar volcanoes. Our model also confirms the importance of geodetic data in modeling these parameters - rates of storage and eruption are, in some cases, almost uniquely constrained by geodesy. Future modeling efforts along these lines should also seek to incorporate gravity data, to better determine magma compressibility and subsurface mass change.

Evaluation of measures to meet future supply demand gap in Chennai city, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmanan, E.; Paul, N.

2016-12-01

Availability of water forever has daunted all the major cities of the world and the cities of India are no exception. Even with high annual average rainfall of 1200 mm the Chennai city has an availability of just 108 lpcd of water, which is much lower than 150 lpcd prescribed by the World Health Organisation. The water requirement presently is met mainly from five reservoirs and partly from groundwater pumping which has given rise to seawater intrusion. The objective of this study is to find effective measures for overcoming the chronic demand supply gap and to predict the results of such measures quantitatively by modelling with the Water Evaluation and Planning System(WEAP). The modelling of city's water demand and supply system was carried out using WEAP and calibration was done using PEST. The data required for this study was obtained from various sources as well as by field investigations. There has been a continuous decrease in the actual water supply even with high availability as predicted by the model. About 60 percent of the city's supplied water ends in sewage and after treatment is presently supplied to industries, on its reuse it is found to meet completely the city's demand alone. The modelled heavy rainfall scenario demonstrates an increase in the water availability up to 20 percent during the years of heavy rainfall. The rejuvenation of existing water bodies in the outskirts of Chennai will increase the water availability for agriculture by 60 percent and hence more groundwater can be pumped for city's water supply. With addition of a new desalination plant over the existing two, the city's water supply-demand gap can be reduced by about 80%. If all the measures are implemented the water availability will exceed the demand. Thus, the WEAP model was successfully used to suggest means for sustainable water management plans for the Chennai city.

Analyzing the Critical Supply Chain For Unmanned Aircraft Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-23

with a decision support tool that facilitates interdiction strategy planning. Overall, the different models developed in the study provide modeling...allow adaptation to different levels of fidelity of the supply chain, based on the user’s mission objectives and available data. A House of Quality...priorities are unknown or incorrect. 1.7 Implications The models presented in this research can be utilized from two different perspectives of

Techno-economic analysis of using corn stover to supply heat and power to a corn ethanol plant - Part 1: Cost of feedstock supply logistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Mani, Sudhagar; Togore, Sam

2010-01-01

Supply of corn stover to produce heat and power for a typical 170 dam3 dry mill ethanol plant is proposed. The corn ethanol plant requires 5.6 MW of electricity and 52.3 MW of process heat, which creates the annual stover demand of as much as 140 Gg. The corn stover supply system consists of collection, preprocessing, transportation and on-site fuel storage and preparation to produce heat and power for the ethanol plant. Economics of the entire supply system was conducted using the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) simulation model. Corn stover was delivered in three formats (square bales,more » dry chops and pellets) to the combined heat and power plant. Delivered cost of biomass ready to be burned was calculated at 73 $ Mg-1 for bales, 86 $ Mg-1 for pellets and 84 $ Mg-1 for field chopped biomass. Among the three formats of stover supply systems, delivered cost of pelleted biomass was the highest due to high pelleting cost. Bulk transport of biomass in the form of chops and pellets can provide a promising future biomass supply logistic system in the US, if the costs of pelleting and transport are minimized.« less

Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

2017-12-01

Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

Ligncellulosic feedstock supply systems with intermodal and overseas transportation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ric Hoefnagels; Kara Cafferty; Erin Searcy

2014-12-01

With growing demand for biomass from industrial uses and international trade, the logistic operations required to economically move the biomass from the field or forest to the end users have become increasingly complex. In addition to economics, understanding energy and GHG emissions is required to design cost effective, sustainable logistic process operations; in order to improve international supply chains it is also important to understate their interdependencies and related uncertainties. This article presents an approach to assess lignocellulosic feedstock supply systems at the operational level. For this purpose, the Biomass Logistic Model (BLM) has been linked with the Geographic Informationmore » Systems based Biomass Intermodal Transportation model (BIT-UU) and extended with inter-continental transport routes. Case studies of herbaceous and woody biomass, produced in the U.S. Midwest and U.S. Southeast, respectively, and shipped to Europe for conversion to Fischer-Tropsch (FT) diesel are included to demonstrate how intermodal transportation and, in particular, overseas shipping integrates with the bioenergy supply chains. For the cases demonstrated, biomass can be supplied at 99 € Mg-1 to 117 € Mg-1 (dry) and converted to FT-diesel at 19 € GJ-1 to 24 € GJ-1 depending on the feedstock type and location, intermediate (chips or pellets) and size of the FT-diesel production plant. With the flexibility to change the design of supply chains as well as input variables, many alternative supply chain cases can be assessed.« less

Modular Open System Architecture for Reducing Contamination Risk in the Space and Missile Defense Supply Chain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine

2015-01-01

To combat contamination of physical assets and provide reliable data to decision makers in the space and missile defense community, a modular open system architecture for creation of contamination models and standards is proposed. Predictive tools for quantifying the effects of contamination can be calibrated from NASA data of long-term orbiting assets. This data can then be extrapolated to missile defense predictive models. By utilizing a modular open system architecture, sensitive data can be de-coupled and protected while benefitting from open source data of calibrated models. This system architecture will include modules that will allow the designer to trade the effects of baseline performance against the lifecycle degradation due to contamination while modeling the lifecycle costs of alternative designs. In this way, each member of the supply chain becomes an informed and active participant in managing contamination risk early in the system lifecycle.

Potential Evaluation of Energy Supply System in Grid Power System, Commercial, and Residential Sectors by Minimizing Energy Cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, Takuya; Akisawa, Atushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

If the economic activity in the commercial and residential sector continues to grow, improvement in energy conversion efficiencies of energy supply systems is necessary for CO2 mitigation. In recent years, the electricity driven hot water heat pump (EDHP) and the solar photo voltaic (PV) are commercialized. The fuel cell (FC) of co-generation system (CGS) for the commercial and residential sector will be commercialized in the future. The aim is to indicate the ideal energy supply system of the users sector, which both manages the economical cost and CO2 mitigation, considering the grid power system. In the paper, cooperative Japanese energy supply systems are modeled by linear-programming. It includes the grid power system and energy systems of five commercial sectors and a residential sector. The demands of sectors are given by the objective term for 2005 to 2025. 24 hours load for each 3 annual seasons are considered. The energy systems are simulated to be minimize the total cost of energy supply, and to be mitigate the CO2 discharge. As result, the ideal energy system at 2025 is shown. The CGS capacity grows to 30% (62GW) of total power system, and the EDHP capacity is 26GW, in commercial and residential sectors.

Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning

PubMed Central

Maurer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2017-01-01

We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)–or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)–to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability), desirability (value), and distinguishability (value range) of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water supply planning in the case study and beyond. PMID:28481881

Regionalized LCA-based optimization of building energy supply: method and case study for a Swiss municipality.

PubMed

Saner, Dominik; Vadenbo, Carl; Steubing, Bernhard; Hellweg, Stefanie

2014-07-01

This paper presents a regionalized LCA-based multiobjective optimization model of building energy demand and supply for the case of a Swiss municipality for the minimization of greenhouse gas emissions and particulate matter formation. The results show that the environmental improvement potential is very large: in the optimal case, greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply could be reduced by more than 75% and particulate emissions by over 50% in the municipality. This scenario supposes a drastic shift of heat supply systems from a fossil fuel dominated portfolio to a portfolio consisting of mainly heat pump and woodchip incineration systems. In addition to a change in heat supply technologies, roofs, windows and walls would need to be refurbished in more than 65% of the municipality's buildings. The full potential of the environmental impact reductions will hardly be achieved in reality, particularly in the short term, for example, because of financial constraints and social acceptance, which were not taken into account in this study. Nevertheless, the results of the optimization model can help policy makers to identify the most effective measures for improvement at the decision making level, for example, at the building level for refurbishment and selection of heating systems or at the municipal level for designing district heating networks. Therefore, this work represents a starting point for designing effective incentives to reduce the environmental impact of buildings. While the results of the optimization model are specific to the municipality studied, the model could readily be adapted to other regions.

Constraining uncertainties in water supply reliability in a tropical data scarce basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Rodriguez, Erasmo; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2015-04-01

Assessing the water supply reliability in river basins is essential for adequate planning and development of irrigated agriculture and urban water systems. In many cases hydrological models are applied to determine the surface water availability in river basins. However, surface water availability and variability is often not appropriately quantified due to epistemic uncertainties, leading to water supply insecurity. The objective of this research is to determine the water supply reliability in order to support planning and development of irrigated agriculture in a tropical, data scarce environment. The approach proposed uses a simple hydrological model, but explicitly includes model parameter uncertainty. A transboundary river basin in the tropical region of Colombia and Venezuela with an approximately area of 2100 km² was selected as a case study. The Budyko hydrological framework was extended to consider climatological input variability and model parameter uncertainty, and through this the surface water reliability to satisfy the irrigation and urban demand was estimated. This provides a spatial estimate of the water supply reliability across the basin. For the middle basin the reliability was found to be less than 30% for most of the months when the water is extracted from an upstream source. Conversely, the monthly water supply reliability was high (r>98%) in the lower basin irrigation areas when water was withdrawn from a source located further downstream. Including model parameter uncertainty provides a complete estimate of the water supply reliability, but that estimate is influenced by the uncertainty in the model. Reducing the uncertainty in the model through improved data and perhaps improved model structure will improve the estimate of the water supply reliability allowing better planning of irrigated agriculture and dependable water allocation decisions.

Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Harvey S.

1976-01-01

Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…

Re-designing the Mozambique vaccine supply chain to improve access to vaccines.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Haidari, Leila A; Prosser, Wendy; Connor, Diana L; Bechtel, Ruth; Dipuve, Amelia; Kassim, Hidayat; Khanlawia, Balbina; Brown, Shawn T

2016-09-22

Populations and routine childhood vaccine regimens have changed substantially since supply chains were designed in the 1980s, and introducing new vaccines during the "Decade of Vaccine" may exacerbate existing bottlenecks, further inhibiting the flow of all vaccines. Working with the Mozambique Ministry of Health, our team implemented a new process that integrated HERMES computational simulation modeling and on-the-ground implementers to evaluate and improve the Mozambique vaccine supply chain using a system-re-design that integrated new supply chain structures, information technology, equipment, personnel, and policies. The alternative system design raised vaccine availability (from 66% to 93% in Gaza; from 76% to 84% in Cabo Delgado) and reduced the logistics cost per dose administered (from $0.53 to $0.32 in Gaza; from $0.38 to $0.24 in Cabo Delgado) as compared to the multi-tiered system under the current EPI. The alternative system also produced higher availability at lower costs after new vaccine introductions. Since reviewing scenarios modeling deliveries every two months in the north of Gaza, the provincial directorate has decided to pilot this approach diverging from decades of policies dictating monthly deliveries. Re-design improved not only supply chain efficacy but also efficiency, important since resources to deliver vaccines are limited. The Mozambique experience and process can serve as a model for other countries during the Decade of Vaccines. For the Decade of Vaccines, getting vaccines at affordable prices to the market is not enough. Vaccines must reach the population to be successful. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Re-designing the Mozambique vaccine supply chain to improve access to vaccines

PubMed Central

Lee, Bruce Y.; Haidari, Leila A.; Prosser, Wendy; Connor, Diana L.; Bechtel, Ruth; Dipuve, Amelia; Kassim, Hidayat; Khanlawia, Balbina; Brown, Shawn T.

2017-01-01

Introduction Populations and routine childhood vaccine regimens have changed substantially since supply chains were designed in the 1980s, and introducing new vaccines during the “Decade of Vaccine” may exacerbate existing bottlenecks, further inhibiting the flow of all vaccines. Methods Working with the Mozambique Ministry of Health, our team implemented a new process that integrated HERMES computational simulation modeling and on-the-ground implementers to evaluate and improve the Mozambique vaccine supply chain using a system-re-design that integrated new supply chain structures, information technology, equipment, personnel, and policies. Results The alternative system design raised vaccine availability (from 66% to 93% in Gaza; from 76% to 84% in Cabo Delgado) and reduced the logistics cost per dose administered (from $0.53 to $0.32 in Gaza; from $0.38 to $0.24 in Cabo Delgado) as compared to the multi-tiered system under the current EPI. The alternative system also produced higher availability at lower costs after new vaccine introductions. Since reviewing scenarios modeling deliveries every two months in the north of Gaza, the provincial directorate has decided to pilot this approach diverging from decades of policies dictating monthly deliveries. Discussion Re-design improved not only supply chain efficacy but also efficiency, important since resources to deliver vaccines are limited. The Mozambique experience and process can serve as a model for other countries during the Decade of Vaccines. For the Decade of Vaccines, getting vaccines at affordable prices to the market is not enough. Vaccines must reach the population to be successful. PMID:27576077

Stochastic modelling of the hydrologic operation of rainwater harvesting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Rui; Guo, Yiping

2018-07-01

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems are an effective low impact development practice that provides both water supply and runoff reduction benefits. A stochastic modelling approach is proposed in this paper to quantify the water supply reliability and stormwater capture efficiency of RWH systems. The input rainfall series is represented as a marked Poisson process and two typical water use patterns are analytically described. The stochastic mass balance equation is solved analytically, and based on this, explicit expressions relating system performance to system characteristics are derived. The performances of a wide variety of RWH systems located in five representative climatic regions of the United States are examined using the newly derived analytical equations. Close agreements between analytical and continuous simulation results are shown for all the compared cases. In addition, an analytical equation is obtained expressing the required storage size as a function of the desired water supply reliability, average water use rate, as well as rainfall and catchment characteristics. The equations developed herein constitute a convenient and effective tool for sizing RWH systems and evaluating their performances.

Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland; Nickel, Darla; Meleg, Alejandro; Trifkovic, Aleksandar; Braun, Juergen

Within the framework of the research project ‘GLOWA-Danube’, a model of the water supply sector has been developed. GLOWA-Danube investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global change. For this purpose, the decision support system DANUBIA, comprising 15 fully coupled models, has been developed. Within DANUBIA the water supply model (‘WaterSupply’) forms the link between various physical models determining water quality and availability and several socio-economic models determining water consumption and demand. Having a central focus on public drinking water supply, its purpose is to correctly simulate the present day system of water extraction and distribution and the related costs, but also to allow meaningful response to possible future changes of boundary conditions, first and foremost changes in water demand or water availability and quality. Response mechanisms are also envisioned for changes in political and economic boundary conditions, and advances in technology. The model will be used locate critical regions which could experience water stress in the future, but does not aim to find the appropriate solutions or to predict the optimal organisation of water supply in the Danube Basin under such changing conditions. In the object-oriented model structure, both water supply companies (WSC) and communities are represented by main classes. Both classes have a limited view and knowledge of their environment. A community knows where and how much water is consumed and from which WSC it is served. A WSC possesses information regarding extraction sites and water rights, raw water quality and potential collaborating WSC. The WSC can perform actions that are different from ‘business as usual’. These deviations from their usual behaviour can be interpreted by decision makers but should not be regarded as a replacement for the decision-making process itself. The model is conceptualised using object-oriented concepts of the Unified Modelling Language (UML) and is implemented in JAVA. This short overview is meant to answer key questions such as why and how WaterSupply was implemented, what is unique and new about the model and what are the general lessons learned and the added value with regard to integrated modelling on a river basin scale. It is obvious that in the attempt to answer these questions it is not possible to satisfy experts from all the relevant related fields, which include computer sciences, economy, behavioural science and not least water supply engineering and hydrology.

Chemical supply chain modeling for analysis of homeland security events

DOE PAGES

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.; ...

2013-09-06

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

Analysis of bullwhip effect on supply chain with Q model using Hadley-Within approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, I.; Nasution, A. A.; Matondang, N.; Persada, M. R.; Syahputri, K.

2018-02-01

This research held on a tapioca flour industry company that uses cassava as raw material to produce tapioca starch product. Problems that occur in this company is inaccurate planning, consequently there is a shortage of variation between the number of requests with the total supply is met, so it is necessary to do research with the formulation of the problem that is how to analyze the Bullwhip Effect on the supply chain using Q model through Hadley-Within approach so as not to disturb the product distribution system at the company. Product distribution system at the company, obtained by the number of requests. The 2015 forecast result is lower than actual demand for distributors and manufactures in 2016 with average percentage difference for Supermarket A distributor, Supermarket B and manufacturing respectively 38.24%, 89.57% and 43.11%. The occurrence of information distortion to the demand of this product can identify the existence of bullwhip effect on the supply chain. The proposed improvement to overcome the bullwhip effect is by doing inventory control policy with Q model using Hadley-Within approach.

A supply chain model to improve the beef quality distribution using investment analysis: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupita, Alessandra; Rangkuti, Sabrina Heriza; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

2017-11-01

There are significant differences related to the quality and price of the beef commodity in traditional market and modern market in Indonesia. Those are caused by very different treatments of the commodity. The different treatments are in the slaughter lines, the transportation from the abattoir to the outlet, the display system, and the control system. If the problem is not solved by the Government, the gap will result a great loss of the consumer regarding to the quality and sustainability of traditional traders business because of the declining interest in purchasing beef in the traditional markets. This article aims to improve the quality of beef in traditional markets. This study proposed A Supply Chain Model that involves the schemes of investment and government incentive for improving the distribution system. The supply chain model is can be formulated using the Mix Integer Linear Programming (MILP) and solved using the IBM®ILOG®CPLEX software. The results show that the proposed model can be used to determine the priority of programs for improving the quality and sustainability business of traditional beef merchants. By using the models, The Government can make a decision to consider incentives for improving the condition.

Improved regional water management utilizing climate forecasts: An interbasin transfer model with a risk management framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weihua; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Ranjithan, R. S.; Brill, E. D.

2014-08-01

Regional water supply systems undergo surplus and deficit conditions due to differences in inflow characteristics as well as due to their seasonal demand patterns. This study proposes a framework for regional water management by proposing an interbasin transfer (IBT) model that uses climate-information-based inflow forecast for minimizing the deviations from the end-of-season target storage across the participating pools. Using the ensemble streamflow forecast, the IBT water allocation model was applied for two reservoir systems in the North Carolina Triangle Area. Results show that interbasin transfers initiated by the ensemble streamflow forecast could potentially improve the overall water supply reliability as the demand continues to grow in the Triangle Area. To further understand the utility of climate forecasts in facilitating IBT under different spatial correlation structures between inflows and between the initial storages of the two systems, a synthetic experiment was designed to evaluate the framework under inflow forecast having different skills. Findings from the synthetic study can be summarized as follows: (a) inflow forecasts combined with the proposed IBT optimization model provide improved allocation in comparison to the allocations obtained under the no-transfer scenario as well as under transfers obtained with climatology; (b) spatial correlations between inflows and between initial storages among participating reservoirs could also influence the potential benefits that could be achieved through IBT; (c) IBT is particularly beneficial for systems that experience low correlations between inflows or between initial storages or on both attributes of the regional water supply system. Thus, if both infrastructure and permitting structures exist for promoting interbasin transfers, season-ahead inflow forecasts could provide added benefits in forecasting surplus/deficit conditions among the participating pools in the regional water supply system.

Improved Regional Water Management Utilizing Climate Forecasts: An Inter-basin Transfer Model with a Risk Management Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Arumugam, S.; Ranjithan, R. S.; Brill, E. D., Jr.

2014-12-01

Regional water supply systems undergo surplus and deficit conditions due to differences in inflow characteristics as well as due to their seasonal demand patterns. This study presents a framework for regional water management by proposing an Inter-Basin Transfer (IBT) model that uses climate-information-based inflow forecast for minimizing the deviations from the end- of-season target storage across the participating reservoirs. Using the ensemble streamflow forecast, the IBT water allocation model was applied for two reservoir systems in the North Carolina Triangle area. Results show that inter-basin transfers initiated by the ensemble streamflow forecast could potentially improve the overall water supply reliability as the demand continues to grow in the Triangle Area. To further understand the utility of climate forecasts in facilitating IBT under different spatial correlation structures between inflows and between the initial storages of the two systems, a synthetic experiment was designed to evaluate the framework under inflow forecast having different skills. Findings from the synthetic study can be summarized as follows: (a) Inflow forecasts combined with the proposed IBT optimization model provide improved allocation in comparison to the allocations obtained under the no- transfer scenario as well as under transfers obtained with climatology; (b) Spatial correlations between inflows and between initial storages among participating reservoirs could also influence the potential benefits that could be achieved through IBT; (c) IBT is particularly beneficial for systems that experience low correlations between inflows or between initial storages or on both attributes of the regional water supply system. Thus, if both infrastructure and permitting structures exist for promoting inter-basin transfers, season-ahead inflow forecasts could provide added benefits in forecasting surplus/deficit conditions among the participating reservoirs in the regional water supply system.

Determining the Utility Value of Water-Supply Interconnections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardman, James L.; Cheremisinoff, Paul N.

1979-01-01

This article is the third in a series which discusses a mathematical methodology for evaluating interconnections of water supply systems. The model can be used to analyze the carrying capacity of proposed links or predict the impact of abandoning interconnections. (AS)

Mitigation of short-term disturbance negative impacts in the agent-based model of a production companies network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchuk, G. K.; Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Medvedeva, M. A.

2017-11-01

This article is devoted to the study of a supply chain disturbance impact on manufacturing volumes in a production system network. Each network agent's product can be used as a resource by other system agents (manufacturers). A supply chain disturbance can lead to operating cease of the entire network. Authors suggest using of short-term partial resources reservation to mitigate negative consequences of such disturbances. An agent-based model with a reservation algorithm compatible with strategies for resource procurement in terms of financial constraints was engineered. This model works in accordance with the static input-output Leontief 's model. The results can be used for choosing the ways of system's stability improving, and protecting it from various disturbances and imbalance.

Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

2017-04-01

Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

[Study on medical service supply public-private partnership mode: based on the view of public economics].

PubMed

Dai, Yue; Sun, Hong; Zhou, Li

2015-02-01

Due to the quasi-public attributes of medical service, the supply mode and system could influence equity and fairness of general people's health. Based on the view of public economics, the purpose of this paper was to explain the economic nature of medical service supply. By analyzing the practice of public-private partnership (PPP) mode in medical care supply and the related public economic issues, we summarized the feasibility and risks of PPP model in Chinese medical care supply market. Finally, we discussed the innovative medical service system provided by government, public hospitals, and social capitals together. Therefore, to guarantee further development of this new medical service supply--PPP mode, we should pay attention to some practical problems, such as the share of cooperation cost and the balance between the benefit and risk among all partners.

Supply chain dynamics in healthcare services.

PubMed

Samuel, Cherian; Gonapa, Kasiviswanadh; Chaudhary, P K; Mishra, Ananya

2010-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to analyse health service supply chain systems. A great deal of literature is available on supply chain management in finished goods inventory situations; however, little research exists on managing service capacity when finished goods inventories are absent. System dynamics models for a typical service-oriented supply chain such as healthcare processes are developed, wherein three service stages are presented sequentially. Just like supply chains with finished goods inventory, healthcare service supply chains also show dynamic behaviour. Comparing options, service reduction, and capacity adjustment delays showed that reducing capacity adjustment and service delays gives better results. The study is confined to health service-oriented supply chains. Further work includes extending the study to service-oriented supply chains with parallel processing, i.e. having more than one stage to perform a similar operation and also to study the behaviour in service-oriented supply chains that have re-entrant orders and applications. Specific case studies can also be developed to reveal factors relevant to particular service-oriented supply chains. The paper explains the bullwhip effect in healthcare service-oriented supply chains. Reducing stages and capacity adjustment are strategic options for service-oriented supply chains. The paper throws light on policy options for managing healthcare service-oriented supply chain dynamics.

Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul

1997-01-01

Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

Game theory competition analysis of reservoir water supply and hydropower generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.

2013-12-01

The total installed capacity of the power generation systems in Taiwan is about 41,000 MW. Hydropower is one of the most important renewable energy sources, with hydropower generation capacity of about 4,540 MW. The aim of this research is to analyze competition between water supply and hydropower generation in water-energy systems. The major relationships between water and energy systems include hydropower generation by water, energy consumption for water system operation, and water consumption for energy system. In this research, a game-theoretic Cournot model is formulated to simulate oligopolistic competition between water supply, hydropower generation, and co-fired power generation in water-energy systems. A Nash equilibrium of the competitive market is derived and solved by GAMS with PATH solver. In addition, a case study analyzing the competition among water supply and hydropower generation of De-ji and Ku-Kuan reservoirs, Taipower, Star Energy, and Star-Yuan power companies in central Taiwan is conducted.

Modeling Water Utility Investments and Improving Regulatory Policies using Economic Optimisation in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padula, S.; Harou, J. J.

2012-12-01

Water utilities in England and Wales are regulated natural monopolies called 'water companies'. Water companies must obtain periodic regulatory approval for all investments (new supply infrastructure or demand management measures). Both water companies and their regulators use results from least economic cost capacity expansion optimisation models to develop or assess water supply investment plans. This presentation first describes the formulation of a flexible supply-demand planning capacity expansion model for water system planning. The model uses a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to choose the least-cost schedule of future supply schemes (reservoirs, desalination plants, etc.) and demand management (DM) measures (leakage reduction, water efficiency and metering options) and bulk transfers. Decisions include what schemes to implement, when to do so, how to size schemes and how much to use each scheme during each year of an n-year long planning horizon (typically 30 years). In addition to capital and operating (fixed and variable) costs, the estimated social and environmental costs of schemes are considered. Each proposed scheme is costed discretely at one or more capacities following regulatory guidelines. The model uses a node-link network structure: water demand nodes are connected to supply and demand management (DM) options (represented as nodes) or to other demand nodes (transfers). Yields from existing and proposed are estimated separately using detailed water resource system simulation models evaluated over the historical period. The model simultaneously considers multiple demand scenarios to ensure demands are met at required reliability levels; use levels of each scheme are evaluated for each demand scenario and weighted by scenario likelihood so that operating costs are accurately evaluated. Multiple interdependency relationships between schemes (pre-requisites, mutual exclusivity, start dates, etc.) can be accounted for by additional constraints. User-defined annual water saving profiles are used for DM schemes so that water conservation 'yields' can follow observed patterns. A two-stage optimization procedure is applied to deal with network infeasibilities which appear in large applications. We apply the model to a regional system of seven water companies in the South East of England, the driest part of the UK with its largest and fastest growing population. The model's spatial units are water supply zones, i.e. interconnected zones of equal supply reliability; each company contains between 3 and 8 of these. Economic benefits of greater sharing of resources among water companies (regional water transfers) are evaluated by considering bi-directional interconnections between all neighboring supply zones. Next we describe an extension of the model to investigate how current regulations incentivize companies to invest in an attempt to understand how better regulations can incentivize more water transfers. Finally, an attempt is made to change from the current model assumption of perfect cooperation between companies to one that represents the fact that each company is a private company seeking to maximize its own benefits. Limitations and advantages of the formulations are discussed and recommendations for capacity expansion modeling are made.

Future supply chains enabled by continuous processing--opportunities and challenges. May 20-21, 2014 Continuous Manufacturing Symposium.

PubMed

Srai, Jagjit Singh; Badman, Clive; Krumme, Markus; Futran, Mauricio; Johnston, Craig

2015-03-01

This paper examines the opportunities and challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry in moving to a primarily "continuous processing"-based supply chain. The current predominantly "large batch" and centralized manufacturing system designed for the "blockbuster" drug has driven a slow-paced, inventory heavy operating model that is increasingly regarded as inflexible and unsustainable. Indeed, new markets and the rapidly evolving technology landscape will drive more product variety, shorter product life-cycles, and smaller drug volumes, which will exacerbate an already unsustainable economic model. Future supply chains will be required to enhance affordability and availability for patients and healthcare providers alike despite the increased product complexity. In this more challenging supply scenario, we examine the potential for a more pull driven, near real-time demand-based supply chain, utilizing continuous processing where appropriate as a key element of a more "flow-through" operating model. In this discussion paper on future supply chain models underpinned by developments in the continuous manufacture of pharmaceuticals, we have set out; The significant opportunities to moving to a supply chain flow-through operating model, with substantial opportunities in inventory reduction, lead-time to patient, and radically different product assurance/stability regimes. Scenarios for decentralized production models producing a greater variety of products with enhanced volume flexibility. Production, supply, and value chain footprints that are radically different from today's monolithic and centralized batch manufacturing operations. Clinical trial and drug product development cost savings that support more rapid scale-up and market entry models with early involvement of SC designers within New Product Development. The major supply chain and industrial transformational challenges that need to be addressed. The paper recognizes that although current batch operational performance in pharma is far from optimal and not necessarily an appropriate end-state benchmark for batch technology, the adoption of continuous supply chain operating models underpinned by continuous production processing, as full or hybrid solutions in selected product supply chains, can support industry transformations to deliver right-first-time quality at substantially lower inventory profiles. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

A decision model for selecting sustainable drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems for developing communities with a case study in Cimahi, Indonesia.

PubMed

Henriques, Justin J; Louis, Garrick E

2011-01-01

Capacity Factor Analysis is a decision support system for selection of appropriate technologies for municipal sanitation services in developing communities. Developing communities are those that lack the capability to provide adequate access to one or more essential services, such as water and sanitation, to their residents. This research developed two elements of Capacity Factor Analysis: a capacity factor based classification for technologies using requirements analysis, and a matching policy for choosing technology options. First, requirements analysis is used to develop a ranking for drinking water supply and greywater reuse technologies. Second, using the Capacity Factor Analysis approach, a matching policy is developed to guide decision makers in selecting the appropriate drinking water supply or greywater reuse technology option for their community. Finally, a scenario-based informal hypothesis test is developed to assist in qualitative model validation through case study. Capacity Factor Analysis is then applied in Cimahi Indonesia as a form of validation. The completed Capacity Factor Analysis model will allow developing communities to select drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems that are safe, affordable, able to be built and managed by the community using local resources, and are amenable to expansion as the community's management capacity increases. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing Students' Understanding of Co-Opetition and Multilevel Inventory Management Strategies in Supply Chains: An In-Class Spreadsheet Simulation Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fetter, Gary; Shockley, Jeff

2014-01-01

Instructors look for ways to explain to students how supply chains can be constructed so that competing suppliers can work together to improve inventory management performance (i.e., a phenomenon known as co-opetition). An Excel spreadsheet-driven simulation is presented that models a complete multilevel supply chain system--customer, retailer,…

Conceptual Model of Supply Chain Structure Mapping - A Case of Subsidized LPG Commodity in Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, Joko; Thoif, Afifuddin; Fitri Alindira, Aulia

2016-01-01

— In 2007, the government launched a conversion program of kerosene to LPG by issuing a Presidential Regulation No. 104/2007 on Supply, Distribution and Pricing LPG 3 Kg. Article 2 on the regulation says that setting the supply, distribution, and pricing of LPG 3 Kg include planning an annual sales volume of enterprises, the reference price and the retail price and conditions of export and import of LPG 3 Kg in order to reduce subsidies Kerosene especially to divert the use of kerosene according to government policy. In principle, the purpose of this policy is to reduce energy subsidies on commodities, especially Kerosene. Although the government claimed the conversion program is success, there are few problems arising from conversion program. In 2014, many scarcity and high price of LPG 3 Kg were reported. In this case, Pertamina was given full authority to manage all supply chain and distribution. Because the root of the problem of scarcity that occurred in the supply chain system has not been explained, the proposed solutions will also be partial and not comprehensive. Thus, this research will build a structural map of the causes of supply chain system LPG 3 Kg, as well as providing a comprehensive picture of system dynamics of LPG 3 Kg supply chain system which applied in Indonesia. And the result is expected as in form of Causal Loop Diagram of supply chain system.

Optimization and resilience of complex supply-demand networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Si-Ping; Huang, Zi-Gang; Dong, Jia-Qi; Eisenberg, Daniel; Seager, Thomas P.; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2015-06-01

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers. We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

2018-02-01

We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh; ...

2018-05-23

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

Optimal Dynamics of Intermittent Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, Anna; Wilkening, Jon; Rycroft, Chris

2014-11-01

In many urban areas of the developing world, piped water is supplied only intermittently, as valves direct water to different parts of the water distribution system at different times. The flow is transient, and may transition between free-surface and pressurized, resulting in complex dynamical features with important consequences for water suppliers and users. These consequences include degradation of distribution system components, compromised water quality, and inequitable water availability. The goal of this work is to model the important dynamics and identify operating conditions that mitigate certain negative effects of intermittent water supply. Specifically, we will look at valve parameters occurring as boundary conditions in a network model of transient, transition flow through closed pipes. Optimization will be used to find boundary values to minimize pressure gradients and ensure equitable water availability.

Integrated Approach to Inform the New York City Water Supply System Coupling SAR Remote Sensing Observations and the SWAT Watershed Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesser, D.; Hoang, L.; McDonald, K. C.

2017-12-01

Efforts to improve municipal water supply systems increasingly rely on an ability to elucidate variables that drive hydrologic dynamics within large watersheds. However, fundamental model variables such as precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and soil freeze/thaw state remain difficult to measure empirically across large, heterogeneous watersheds. Satellite remote sensing presents a method to validate these spatially and temporally dynamic variables as well as better inform the watershed models that monitor the water supply for many of the planet's most populous urban centers. PALSAR 2 L-band, Sentinel 1 C-band, and SMAP L-band scenes covering the Cannonsville branch of the New York City (NYC) water supply watershed were obtained for the period of March 2015 - October 2017. The SAR data provides information on soil moisture, free/thaw state, seasonal surface inundation, and variable source areas within the study site. Integrating the remote sensing products with watershed model outputs and ground survey data improves the representation of related processes in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) utilized to monitor the NYC water supply. PALSAR 2 supports accurate mapping of the extent of variable source areas while Sentinel 1 presents a method to model the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff events. SMAP Active Radar soil moisture product directly validates SWAT outputs at the subbasin level. This blended approach verifies the distribution of soil wetness classes within the watershed that delineate Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) in the modified SWAT-Hillslope. The research expands the ability to model the NYC water supply source beyond a subset of the watershed while also providing high resolution information across a larger spatial scale. The global availability of these remote sensing products provides a method to capture fundamental hydrology variables in regions where current modeling efforts and in situ data remain limited.

Effects of additional food in a delayed predator-prey model.

PubMed

Sahoo, Banshidhar; Poria, Swarup

2015-03-01

We examine the effects of supplying additional food to predator in a gestation delay induced predator-prey system with habitat complexity. Additional food works in favor of predator growth in our model. Presence of additional food reduces the predatory attack rate to prey in the model. Supplying additional food we can control predator population. Taking time delay as bifurcation parameter the stability of the coexisting equilibrium point is analyzed. Hopf bifurcation analysis is done with respect to time delay in presence of additional food. The direction of Hopf bifurcations and the stability of bifurcated periodic solutions are determined by applying the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. The qualitative dynamical behavior of the model is simulated using experimental parameter values. It is observed that fluctuations of the population size can be controlled either by supplying additional food suitably or by increasing the degree of habitat complexity. It is pointed out that Hopf bifurcation occurs in the system when the delay crosses some critical value. This critical value of delay strongly depends on quality and quantity of supplied additional food. Therefore, the variation of predator population significantly effects the dynamics of the model. Model results are compared with experimental results and biological implications of the analytical findings are discussed in the conclusion section. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination--Glacial aquifer system in Woodbury, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jagucki, Martha L.; Brown, Craig J.; Starn, J. Jeffrey; Eberts, Sandra M.

2010-01-01

This fact sheet highlights findings from the vulnerability study of a public-supply well in Woodbury, Connecticut. The well typically produces water at the rate of 72 gallons per minute from the glacial aquifer system in the Pomperaug River Basin. Water samples were collected at the public-supply well and at monitoring wells installed in or near the simulated zone of contribution to the supply well. Samples of untreated water from the public-supply wellhead contained several types of undesirable constituents, including 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrate, pesticides, uranium, and radon. Most of these constituents were detected at concentrations below drinking-water standards, where such standards exist. Only concentrations of the VOC trichlorethylene exceeded the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) established by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. Radon concentrations exceeded a proposed-but not finalized-MCL of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). Overall, the study findings point to four main factors that affect the movement and fate of contaminants and the vulnerability of the public-supply well in Woodbury: (1) groundwater age (how long ago water entered, or recharged, the aquifer); (2) the percentage of recharge received through urban areas; (3) the percentage of recharge received through dry wells and their proximity to the public-supply well; and (4) natural geochemical processes occurring within the aquifer system; that is, processes that affect the amounts and distribution of chemical substances in aquifer sediments and groundwater. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow to the public-supply well was used to estimate the age of water particles entering the well along the length of the well screen. About 90 percent of the simulated flow to the well consists of water that entered the aquifer 9 or fewer years ago. Such young water is vulnerable to contaminants resulting from human activities, as indicated by the solvents, fuel components, road salt, and septic-system leachate that were detected in the glacial aquifer system during the current study. Age-dating combined with chemical modeling suggests that less than 2 percent of water produced by the public-supply well is water from the deep bedrock that is "old" (water that recharged, or entered, the aquifer before 1952). Such a small percentage of old groundwater entering the public-supply well offers little potential for dilution of young waters containing contaminants from human activities. Shallow groundwater that originated as recharge through urban areas generally had higher median concentrations and more detections of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) than did groundwater from the deep glacial deposits or fractured bedrock that originated mainly as recharge through agricultural and undeveloped land. Shallow groundwater was also found to be affected by road salt and septic-system leachate. A chemical mixing model indicates that up to 15 percent of nitrate in water from the supply well is likely from septic-system leachate. The Connecticut Department of Public Health has identified several potential sources of contamination in the commercial area of Woodbury (several light industrial or commercial properties where hazardous materials and petroleum products are used and stored). To reduce stormwater runoff in the commercial area, water from the parking lots and pavement is channeled into dry wells-drains that shunt water directly into the aquifer system, bypassing the soil and unsaturated zones. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow indicates that approximately 16 percent of the water produced by the public-supply well is derived from runoff captured by these drains. Traveltime for water from the dry wells to the public-supply well ranges from about 1.5 to less than 4 years. Dry wells have the potential to enhance contaminant movement to the supply well, suggesting that stormwater-control methods cannot be considered separately from groundwater quality—they are linked. Water-quality protection in this setting depends on the entire community. If residents and businesses take steps to reduce input of manmade contaminants to groundwater, a positive effect on quality of the supply-well water might begin to be seen in less than 10 years, owing to the short residence time of water in the aquifer.

Bayesian estimation of magma supply, storage, and eruption rates using a multiphysical volcano model: Kīlauea Volcano, 2000-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Kyle R.; Poland, Michael P.

2016-08-01

Estimating rates of magma supply to the world's volcanoes remains one of the most fundamental aims of volcanology. Yet, supply rates can be difficult to estimate even at well-monitored volcanoes, in part because observations are noisy and are usually considered independently rather than as part of a holistic system. In this work we demonstrate a technique for probabilistically estimating time-variable rates of magma supply to a volcano through probabilistic constraint on storage and eruption rates. This approach utilizes Bayesian joint inversion of diverse datasets using predictions from a multiphysical volcano model, and independent prior information derived from previous geophysical, geochemical, and geological studies. The solution to the inverse problem takes the form of a probability density function which takes into account uncertainties in observations and prior information, and which we sample using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Applying the technique to Kīlauea Volcano, we develop a model which relates magma flow rates with deformation of the volcano's surface, sulfur dioxide emission rates, lava flow field volumes, and composition of the volcano's basaltic magma. This model accounts for effects and processes mostly neglected in previous supply rate estimates at Kīlauea, including magma compressibility, loss of sulfur to the hydrothermal system, and potential magma storage in the volcano's deep rift zones. We jointly invert data and prior information to estimate rates of supply, storage, and eruption during three recent quasi-steady-state periods at the volcano. Results shed new light on the time-variability of magma supply to Kīlauea, which we find to have increased by 35-100% between 2001 and 2006 (from 0.11-0.17 to 0.18-0.28 km3/yr), before subsequently decreasing to 0.08-0.12 km3/yr by 2012. Changes in supply rate directly impact hazard at the volcano, and were largely responsible for an increase in eruption rate of 60-150% between 2001 and 2006, and subsequent decline by as much as 60% by 2012. We also demonstrate the occurrence of temporal changes in the proportion of Kīlauea's magma supply that is stored versus erupted, with the supply ;surge; in 2006 associated with increased accumulation of magma at the summit. Finally, we are able to place some constraints on sulfur concentrations in Kīlauea magma and the scrubbing of sulfur by the volcano's hydrothermal system. Multiphysical, Bayesian constraint on magma flow rates may be used to monitor evolving volcanic hazard not just at Kīlauea but at other volcanoes around the world.

Governance on the Drug Supply Chain via Gcoin Blockchain.

PubMed

Tseng, Jen-Hung; Liao, Yen-Chih; Chong, Bin; Liao, Shih-Wei

2018-05-23

As a trust machine, blockchain was recently introduced to the public to provide an immutable, consensus based and transparent system in the Fintech field. However, there are ongoing efforts to apply blockchain to other fields where trust and value are essential. In this paper, we suggest Gcoin blockchain as the base of the data flow of drugs to create transparent drug transaction data. Additionally, the regulation model of the drug supply chain could be altered from the inspection and examination only model to the surveillance net model, and every unit that is involved in the drug supply chain would be able to participate simultaneously to prevent counterfeit drugs and to protect public health, including patients.

The Life Cycle Evaluation Model of External Diseconomy of Open-loop Supply Chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qian; Hu, Tianjun

2017-08-01

In recent years, with the continuous deterioration of pollution, resource space is gradually narrowed, the number of waste items increased, people began to use the method of recycling on waste products to ease the pressure on the environment. This paper adopted the external diseconomy of open-loop supply chain as the research object and constructed the model by the life cycle evaluation method, comparative analysis through the case. This paper also concludes that the key to solving the problem is to realize the closed-loop supply chain and building reverse logistics system is of great significance.

TVA GIS-based biomass resource assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noon, C.E.

1993-12-31

The focus of this paper is a computer-based system for estimating the costs of supplying wood fuel. The system is being developed for the Tennessee Valley Authority and is referred to as the Biomass Resource Assessment Version One (BRAVO) system. The main objective in developing the BRAVO system is to assist TVA in estimating the costs for supplying wood fuel to any one of its twelve coal-fired plants. The BRAVO system is developed within a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform and is designed to allow a user to perform {open_quotes}what if{close_quotes} analyses related to the costs of wood fuel supply.more » Three types of wood fuel are considered in the BRAVO system: mill residues, logging residues and short-rotation woody crops (SRWC). Each type of wood fuel has unique economic and supply characteristics. The input data for the system includes the specific locations, amount, and prices of the various types of wood fuel throughout the TVA region. The system input is completed by data on political boundaries, power plant locations, road networks and a model for estimating transportation costs as a function of distance. The result is a comprehensive system which includes information on all possible wood fuel supply joints, demand points and product movement costs. In addition, the BRAVO system has been designed to allow a user to perform sensitivity analysis on a variety of supply system parameters. This will enable TVA to thoroughly investigate the financial impacts of issues such as increased competition for wood fuel, environmental policies, fuel taxes, and regional economic cycles.« less

Research on the performance evaluation of agricultural products supply chain integrated operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jiake; Wang, Xifu; Liu, Yang

2017-04-01

The agricultural product supply chain integrated operation can ensure the quality and efficiency of agricultural products, and achieve the optimal goal of low cost and high service. This paper establishes a performance evaluation index system of agricultural products supply chain integration operation based on the development status of agricultural products and SCOR, BSC and KPI model. And then, we constructing rough set theory and BP neural network comprehensive evaluation model with the aid of Rosetta and MATLAB tools and the case study is about the development of agricultural products integrated supply chain in Jing-Jin-Ji region. And finally, we obtain the corresponding performance results, and give some improvement measures and management recommendations to the managers.

Future Supply Chains Enabled by Continuous Processing-Opportunities Challenges May 20-21 2014 Continuous Manufacturing Symposium.

PubMed

Srai, Jagjit Singh; Badman, Clive; Krumme, Markus; Futran, Mauricio; Johnston, Craig

2015-03-01

This paper examines the opportunities and challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry in moving to a primarily "continuous processing"-based supply chain. The current predominantly "large batch" and centralized manufacturing system designed for the "blockbuster" drug has driven a slow-paced, inventory heavy operating model that is increasingly regarded as inflexible and unsustainable. Indeed, new markets and the rapidly evolving technology landscape will drive more product variety, shorter product life-cycles, and smaller drug volumes, which will exacerbate an already unsustainable economic model. Future supply chains will be required to enhance affordability and availability for patients and healthcare providers alike despite the increased product complexity. In this more challenging supply scenario, we examine the potential for a more pull driven, near real-time demand-based supply chain, utilizing continuous processing where appropriate as a key element of a more "flow-through" operating model. In this discussion paper on future supply chain models underpinned by developments in the continuous manufacture of pharmaceuticals, we have set out; The paper recognizes that although current batch operational performance in pharma is far from optimal and not necessarily an appropriate end-state benchmark for batch technology, the adoption of continuous supply chain operating models underpinned by continuous production processing, as full or hybrid solutions in selected product supply chains, can support industry transformations to deliver right-first-time quality at substantially lower inventory profiles. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Visual prosthesis wireless energy transfer system optimal modeling.

PubMed

Li, Xueping; Yang, Yuan; Gao, Yong

2014-01-16

Wireless energy transfer system is an effective way to solve the visual prosthesis energy supply problems, theoretical modeling of the system is the prerequisite to do optimal energy transfer system design. On the basis of the ideal model of the wireless energy transfer system, according to visual prosthesis application condition, the system modeling is optimized. During the optimal modeling, taking planar spiral coils as the coupling devices between energy transmitter and receiver, the effect of the parasitic capacitance of the transfer coil is considered, and especially the concept of biological capacitance is proposed to consider the influence of biological tissue on the energy transfer efficiency, resulting in the optimal modeling's more accuracy for the actual application. The simulation data of the optimal model in this paper is compared with that of the previous ideal model, the results show that under high frequency condition, the parasitic capacitance of inductance and biological capacitance considered in the optimal model could have great impact on the wireless energy transfer system. The further comparison with the experimental data verifies the validity and accuracy of the optimal model proposed in this paper. The optimal model proposed in this paper has a higher theoretical guiding significance for the wireless energy transfer system's further research, and provide a more precise model reference for solving the power supply problem in visual prosthesis clinical application.

Modeling sediment supply of the Congo watershed since the last 23 ka.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molliex, Stéphane; Kettner, Albert J.; Laurent, Dimitri; Droz, Laurence; Marsset, Tania; Laraque, Alain; Rabineau, Marina

2017-04-01

The Congo River is the world's second river in term of drainage area (3.7 millions of km2) and water discharge (42,000 m3.s-1). Located in equatorial Africa, the basin extends over the two hemispheres, leading to an annual homogeneous repartition of climatic parameters and modest variation in intra-annual discharge. Monitored for decades, a large dataset is available for both the hydrology and sediment load for the Congo system. Moreover, the Quaternary Congo turbidite system geometry has been widely studied and an abundance of paleo-environmental parameters have been inferred from chemical proxies analyzed from offshore cores. These numerous data, both onshore and offshore, allow for accurate calibration of numeric modeling and for efficient comparison between observed and simulated data. This study aims (i) to quantify the evolution of sediment supply leaving the Congo watershed during the last 23 ka; (ii) to decipher the forcing parameters controlling the sediment supply over glacial/interglacial stages. HydroTrend is a model that simulates water discharge and sediment load leaving a hydrologic system. It is based on morphologic, climatic, hydrologic, lithologic, land cover and anthropogenic factors. After calibrating the present-day discharge and sediment load, we simulated discharge and sediment supply over 23 ka, integrating the changes in environmental conditions during this period. Results show that present-day simulations fit the observed data well if a significant part of sediments is being trapped by the catchment, in the floodplain. The long-term simulations show that the changes in climatic conditions (temperature and precipitations) between glacial and interglacial stages only account for a maximum variation of about 20 % of the sediment supply. The resulting land cover changes are most likely a more significant factor controlling the sediment supply; the loss of forest during colder and dryer stages can be responsible for up to 50 % of sediment supply increase.

Automated Air Information Production System - Phase II.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

Alphanumeric CRT terminals, 2 Gandalf Data Inc. Model LDS 250/3 56 Kbps synchronous short haul modems , 2 General Data Comm Industries TDM-1205 time...supplied encrypt/decrypt devices which would interface to the communications multiplexers supplied by Synectics. Synectics also supplied short haul modems ...During the development effort and throughput of the T&E period the high speed ( 56K bps) link would intermittently go out of synchronization. The problem

FOSSIL2 energy policy model documentation: generic structures of the FOSSIL2 model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1980-10-01

This report discusses the structure, derivations, assumptions, and mathematical formulation of the FOSSIL2 model. Each major facet of the model - supply/demand interactions, industry financing, and production - has been designed to parallel closely the actual cause/effect relationships determining the behavior of the United States energy system. The data base for the FOSSIL2 program is large. When possible, all data were obtained from sources well known to experts in the energy field. Cost and resource estimates are based on DOE data whenever possible. This report presents the FOSSIL2 model at several levels. In Volume I, an overview of the basicmore » structures, assumptions, and behavior of the FOSSIL2 model is presented so that the reader can understand the results of various policy tests. The discussion covers the three major building blocks, or generic structures, used to construct the model: supply/demand balance; finance and capital formation; and energy production. These structures reflect the components and interactions of the major processes within each energy industry that directly affect the dynamics of fuel supply, demand, and price within the energy system as a whole.« less

Contribution to the modelling and analysis of logistics system performance by Petri nets and simulation models: Application in a supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azougagh, Yassine; Benhida, Khalid; Elfezazi, Said

2016-02-01

In this paper, the focus is on studying the performance of complex systems in a supply chain context by developing a structured modelling approach based on the methodology ASDI (Analysis, Specification, Design and Implementation) by combining the modelling by Petri nets and simulation using ARENA. The linear approach typically followed in conducting of this kind of problems has to cope with a difficulty of modelling due to the complexity and the number of parameters of concern. Therefore, the approach used in this work is able to structure modelling a way to cover all aspects of the performance study. The modelling structured approach is first introduced before being applied to the case of an industrial system in the field of phosphate. Results of the performance indicators obtained from the models developed, permitted to test the behaviour and fluctuations of this system and to develop improved models of the current situation. In addition, in this paper, it was shown how Arena software can be adopted to simulate complex systems effectively. The method in this research can be applied to investigate various improvements scenarios and their consequences before implementing them in reality.

Impact of climate change on persistent turbidity in the water supply system of a Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, S. W.; Park, H. S.; Lim, K. J.; Kang, B.

2016-12-01

Persistent turbidity, a long-term resuspension of fine particles in aquatic system, is one of the major water quality concerns for the sustainable management of water supply systems in metropolitan areas. Turbid water has undesirable aesthetic and recreational appeal and may have harmful effect on ecosystem health, in addition to increasing water treatment costs in drinking water supply systems. These concerns have been more intensified as the strength and frequency of rainfall events increase by climate change in the Asian monsoon climate region, including Korea. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of potential climate change on the persistent turbidity of the Han River systems that supplies drinking water to approximately 25 million consumers dwelling in the Seoul Metropolitan areas. A comprehensive numerical and statistical modeling suit has been developed and applied to the systems for the projection of future climate, responding hydrological and soil erosion processes in the watershed, and sediment transport processes in the rivers and reservoirs systems. The down-scaled 100 years of climatic data from General Circulation Model (HadGEM2-AO) based on the IPCC's greenhouse-gas emissions scenario RCP4.5 were used for the forcing data of the watershed and river-reservoir models. As the results, an extreme flood event that may incur significant persistent turbidity was projected to be occurred five times in the future. The threshold of a flood event that is classified as an extreme event was based on the historical flood event that occurred on July of 2006 when turbid water had persisted within the Soyang Reservoir and discharged to the downstream of the Han River systems over the year until May of the following year. A two-dimensional river and reservoir model simulated the transport and dynamics of suspended sediments in Soyang Reservoir, and routed the discharged turbid water to the downstream of Paldang Reservoir, in which most of the drinking water offtake facilities are located. The statistical features of the extreme flood events, their impact on the persistent turbidity on the downstream rivers and reservoirs, and consequently on the water supply system of the Seoul Metropolitan areas will be presented in the special session.

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply.

PubMed

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-03-31

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems.

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply

PubMed Central

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-01-01

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems. PMID:29614749

Evaluation of appropriate system for reclaimed wastewater reuse in each area of Tokyo using GIS-based water balance model.

PubMed

Aramaki, T; Sugimoto, R; Hanaki, K; Matsuo, T

2001-01-01

The appropriate type of reclaimed wastewater reuse system in each area of Tokyo was evaluated from the aspect of economic efficiency, using a GIS-based water balances model. The following four reclaimed wastewater reuse systems and conventional waterworks and sewerage system were evaluated; "Rain water storage and use system", "Onsite wastewater treatment and reuse system", "Sewage treatment and reuse at an intermediate point on the sewer pipe" and "Treated water supply system in sewage treatment plant". In the case that we install them to office and residential buildings, the supplied volume by reclaimed wastewater reuse systems is 693 thousands m3/d, this corresponds to 15% of total water demand in the area. Furthermore, the effects of the following scenarios brought about by technological innovation in water treatment were investigated; the case that flush water in toilet and wastewater from kitchen are also available as source in a "onsite wastewater treatment and reuse system" and the case that reclaimed water is used for laundering in residential buildings. When reclaimed water is used for laundering in residential buildings, the supplied volume by these systems increases to 814 thousand m3/d in the case that these systems are installed to office and residential buildings.

Chapter 15: Using System Dynamics to Model Industry's Developmental Response to Energy Policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, Brian; Inman, Daniel; Newes, Emily

In this chapter we explore the potential development of the biofuels industry using the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), a system dynamics model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory through the support of the U.S. Department of Energy. The BSM is designed to analyze the implications of policy on the development of the supply chain for biofuels in the United States. It explicitly represents the behavior of decision makers such as farmers, investors, fueling station owners, and consumers. We analyze several illustrative case studies that explore a range of policies and discuss how incentives interact with individual parts of themore » supply chain as well as the industry as a whole. The BSM represents specific incentives that are intended to approximate policy in the form of selected laws and regulations. Through characterizing the decision making behaviors of economic actors within the supply chain that critically influence the adoption rate of new biofuels production technologies and demonstrating synergies among policies, we find that incentives with coordinated impacts on each major element of the supply chain catalyze net effects of decision maker behavior such that the combined incentives are greater than the summed effects of individual incentives in isolation.« less

Only adding stationary storage to vaccine supply chains may create and worsen transport bottlenecks.

PubMed

Haidari, Leila A; Connor, Diana L; Wateska, Angela R; Brown, Shawn T; Mueller, Leslie E; Norman, Bryan A; Schmitz, Michelle M; Paul, Proma; Rajgopal, Jayant; Welling, Joel S; Leonard, Jim; Claypool, Erin G; Weng, Yu-Ting; Chen, Sheng-I; Lee, Bruce Y

2013-01-01

Although vaccine supply chains in many countries require additional stationary storage and transport capacity to meet current and future needs, international donors tend to donate stationary storage devices far more often than transport equipment. To investigate the impact of only adding stationary storage equipment on the capacity requirements of transport devices and vehicles, we used HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains) to construct a discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain. We measured the transport capacity requirement for each mode of transport used in the Niger vaccine cold chain, both before and after adding cold rooms and refrigerators to relieve all stationary storage constraints in the system. With the addition of necessary stationary storage, the average transport capacity requirement increased from 88% to 144% for cold trucks, from 101% to 197% for pickup trucks, and from 366% to 420% for vaccine carriers. Therefore, adding stationary storage alone may worsen or create new transport bottlenecks as more vaccines flow through the system, preventing many vaccines from reaching their target populations. Dynamic modeling can reveal such relationships between stationary storage capacity and transport constraints.

Only Adding Stationary Storage to Vaccine Supply Chains May Create and Worsen Transport Bottlenecks

PubMed Central

Haidari, Leila A.; Connor, Diana L.; Wateska, Angela R.; Brown, Shawn T.; Mueller, Leslie E.; Norman, Bryan A.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Paul, Proma; Rajgopal, Jayant; Welling, Joel S.; Leonard, Jim; Claypool, Erin G.; Weng, Yu-Ting; Chen, Sheng-I; Lee, Bruce Y.

2015-01-01

Although vaccine supply chains in many countries require additional stationary storage and transport capacity to meet current and future needs, international donors tend to donate stationary storage devices far more often than transport equipment. To investigate the impact of only adding stationary storage equipment on the capacity requirements of transport devices and vehicles, we used HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains) to construct a discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain. We measured the transport capacity requirement for each mode of transport used in the Niger vaccine cold chain, both before and after adding cold rooms and refrigerators to relieve all stationary storage constraints in the system. With the addition of necessary stationary storage, the average transport capacity requirement increased from 88% to 144% for cold trucks, from 101% to 197% for pickup trucks, and from 366% to 420% for vaccine carriers. Therefore, adding stationary storage alone may worsen or create new transport bottlenecks as more vaccines flow through the system, preventing many vaccines from reaching their target populations. Dynamic modeling can reveal such relationships between stationary storage capacity and transport constraints. PMID:23903398

The Impact of Forest Thinning on the Reliability of Water Supply in Central Arizona

PubMed Central

Simonit, Silvio; Connors, John P.; Yoo, James; Kinzig, Ann; Perrings, Charles

2015-01-01

Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporting set of institutions of which water markets are frequently the most important. In this paper we model the interactions between these elements. A forest restoration initiative in Central Arizona (the Four Forest Restoration Initiative, or 4FRI) will result in thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the upper watershed, with potential implications for both sedimentation rates and water delivery to reservoirs. Specifically, we model the net effect of ponderosa pine forest thinning across the Salt and Verde River watersheds on the reliability and cost of water supply to the Phoenix metropolitan area. We conclude that the sediment impacts of forest thinning (up to 50% of canopy cover) are unlikely to compromise the reliability of the reservoir system while thinning has the potential to increase annual water supply by 8%. This represents an estimated net present value of surface water storage of $104 million, considering both water consumption and hydropower generation. PMID:25835003

Inventory decision in a closed-loop supply chain with inspection, sorting, and waste disposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwicahyani, A. R.; Jauhari, W. A.; Kurdhi, N. A.

2016-02-01

The study of returned item inventory management in a closed-loop supply chain system has become an important issue in recent years. So far, investigations about inventory decision making in a closed-loop supply chain system have been confined to traditional forward and reverse oriented material flow supply chain. In this study, we propose an integrated inventory model consisting a supplier, a manufacturer, and a retailer where the manufacturer inspects all of the returned items collected from the customers and classifies them as recoverable or waste. Returned items that recovered through the remanufacturing process and the newly manufactured products are then used to meet the demand of the retailer. However, some recovered items which are not comparable to the ones in quality, classified as refurbished items, are sold to a secondary market at a reduced price. This study also suggests that the flow of returned items is controlled by a decision variable, namely an acceptance quality level of recoverable item in the system. We apply multiple remanufacturing cycle and multiple production cycle policy to the proposed model and give the corresponding iterative procedure to determine the optimal solutions. Further, numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

Integrated urban systems model with multiple transportation supply agents.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

This project demonstrates the feasibility of developing quantitative models that can forecast future networks under : current and alternative transportation planning processes. The current transportation planning process is modeled : based on empiric...

[Management of allocation of positions for specialist medical training].

PubMed

Alonso, M I

2003-01-01

Currently there is a large imbalance between supply and demand for medical specialists in the Spanish Health System. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the possible effects of current policies of allocating vacancies for interns and residents as well as to describe several measures and alternative policies. Using the methodology of System Dynamics, we designed a simulation model of the allocation process. Based on the validated model, possible changes in the system through time in response to diverse allocation policies were simulated. Specifically, changes in the accumulated number of graduates who over the years have remained without specialty, the number of unemployed specialists, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the period under consideration were observed. The results obtained from the simulation indicate that allocation policies such as the current one tends to reduce the accumulated number of graduates without specialty, due to the philosophy characterizing this policy, but that it considerably increases the number of unemployed specialists and aggravates the supply-demand imbalance. In the simulation, this tendency remained over time even though more restrictive measures in numerus clausus and retirement age were adopted. Equally, a policy based on social needs and aware of delays in training would substantially contribute to eliminating unemployment among specialists and supply-demand imbalance over time. If such a policy were combined with the above-mentioned measures the results would be even better, more rapidly eliminating graduates without specialty, unemployed specialists, and supply-demand imbalances. If the Health Administration continues with the current system of allocation of places, the present imbalance in supply and demand will become even worse. Therefore, new and far-sighted measures and policies are required, as well as greater coordination between undergraduate and postgraduate training.

The vascular supply of the thymus in the guinea-pig and pig

PubMed Central

Olson, I. A.; Poste, Mary E.

1973-01-01

A study of the blood supply of the thymus using intravascular carbon or silver shows that the pig and guinea-pig possess a more extensive vascular system than the current model taken from work on the mouse. ImagesFIG. 1FIG. 2FIG. 3 PMID:4120933

SEARCHING FOR A WATER SUPPLY CONNECTION IN THE CABOOL, MISSOURI OUTBREAK

EPA Science Inventory

A recent disease outbreak resulting in 4 deaths, 32 hospitalization and a total of 243 documented cases of diarrhea was linked epidemiologically and by on-site data gathering supported by the use of a distribution system model to the public water supply. The pathogenic agent, Esc...

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a source of distributed frequency regulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullen, Sara Kathryn

The movement to transform the North American power grid into a smart grid may be accomplished by expanding integrated sensing, communications, and control technologies to include every part of the grid to the point of end-use. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) provide an opportunity for small-scale distributed storage while they are plugged-in. With large numbers of PHEV and the communications and sensing associated with the smart grid, PHEV could provide ancillary services for the grid. Frequency regulation is an ideal service for PHEV because the duration of supply is short (order of minutes) and it is the highest priced ancillary service on the market offering greater financial returns for vehicle owners. Using Simulink a power system simulator modeling the IEEE 14 Bus System was combined with a model of PHEV charging and the controllers which facilitate vehicle-to-grid (V2G) regulation supply. The system includes a V2G controller for each vehicle which makes regulation supply decisions based on battery state, user preferences, and the recommended level of supply. A PHEV coordinator controller located higher in the system has access to reliable frequency measurements and can determine a suitable local automatic generation control (AGC) raise/lower signal for participating vehicles. A first step implementation of the V2G supply system where battery charging is modulated to provide regulation was developed. The system was simulated following a step change in loading using three scenarios: (1) Central generating units provide frequency regulation, (2) PHEV contribute to primary regulation analogous to generator speed governor control, and (3) PHEV contribute to primary and secondary regulation using an additional integral term in the PHEV control signal. In both cases the additional regulation provided by PHEV reduced the area control error (ACE) compared to the base case. Unique contributions resulting from this work include: (1) Studied PHEV energy systems and limitations on battery charging/discharging, (2) Reviewed standards for interconnection of distributed resources and electric vehicle charging [1], [2], (3) Explored strategies for distributed control of PHEV charging, (4) Developed controllers to accommodate PHEV regulation, and (5) Developed a simulator combining a power system model and PHEV/V2G components.

Analysis of production-inventory decisions in a decentralized supply chain with price-dependent demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurdhi, N. A.; Irsanianto, S. T.; Sutanto

2017-01-01

In this paper, we consider a production-inventory supply chain system with single-manufacturer and single-retailer. There are many types of contract that guarantee the supply chain. However, the administrative costs of the contract are usually neglected in real situation. The additional gain from integration may not cover the extra administrative costs may not addressed to supply chain. Therefore, a Stackelberg game and RFM policy are examined in order to investigate its performance on supply chain. The RFM policy is applied because its administrative costs are lower than othe policies. Although RFM policy is not capable of coordinating the channel, it leads to considerable improvements over the channel. The purpose of this research is to present a model of integrated policy, in which the goal is to maximize the whole system profit, and to evaluate decentralized-Stackelberg and RFM policies, in which individual firms in the supply chain have their own objectives and decisions to optimize.

Visual prosthesis wireless energy transfer system optimal modeling

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Wireless energy transfer system is an effective way to solve the visual prosthesis energy supply problems, theoretical modeling of the system is the prerequisite to do optimal energy transfer system design. Methods On the basis of the ideal model of the wireless energy transfer system, according to visual prosthesis application condition, the system modeling is optimized. During the optimal modeling, taking planar spiral coils as the coupling devices between energy transmitter and receiver, the effect of the parasitic capacitance of the transfer coil is considered, and especially the concept of biological capacitance is proposed to consider the influence of biological tissue on the energy transfer efficiency, resulting in the optimal modeling’s more accuracy for the actual application. Results The simulation data of the optimal model in this paper is compared with that of the previous ideal model, the results show that under high frequency condition, the parasitic capacitance of inductance and biological capacitance considered in the optimal model could have great impact on the wireless energy transfer system. The further comparison with the experimental data verifies the validity and accuracy of the optimal model proposed in this paper. Conclusions The optimal model proposed in this paper has a higher theoretical guiding significance for the wireless energy transfer system’s further research, and provide a more precise model reference for solving the power supply problem in visual prosthesis clinical application. PMID:24428906

A switched energy saving position controller for variable-pressure electro-hydraulic servo systems.

PubMed

Tivay, Ali; Zareinejad, Mohammad; Rezaei, S Mehdi; Baghestan, Keivan

2014-07-01

The electro-hydraulic servo system (EHSS) demonstrates a relatively low level of efficiency compared to other available actuation methods. The objective of this paper is to increase this efficiency by introducing a variable supply pressure into the system and controlling this pressure during the task of position tracking. For this purpose, an EHSS structure with controllable supply pressure is proposed and its dynamic model is derived from the basic laws of physics. A switching control structure is then proposed to control both the supply pressure and the cylinder position at the same time, in a way that reduces the overall energy consumption of the system. The stability of the proposed switching control system is guaranteed by proof, and its performance is verified by experimental testing. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Supply Chains Enabled by Continuous Processing—Opportunities and Challenges. May 20–21, 2014 Continuous Manufacturing Symposium

PubMed Central

Srai, Jagjit Singh; Badman, Clive; Krumme, Markus; Futran, Mauricio; Johnston, Craig

2015-01-01

This paper examines the opportunities and challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry in moving to a primarily “continuous processing”-based supply chain. The current predominantly “large batch” and centralized manufacturing system designed for the “blockbuster” drug has driven a slow-paced, inventory heavy operating model that is increasingly regarded as inflexible and unsustainable. Indeed, new markets and the rapidly evolving technology landscape will drive more product variety, shorter product life-cycles, and smaller drug volumes, which will exacerbate an already unsustainable economic model. Future supply chains will be required to enhance affordability and availability for patients and healthcare providers alike despite the increased product complexity. In this more challenging supply scenario, we examine the potential for a more pull driven, near real-time demand-based supply chain, utilizing continuous processing where appropriate as a key element of a more “flow-through” operating model. In this discussion paper on future supply chain models underpinned by developments in the continuous manufacture of pharmaceuticals, we have set out; The significant opportunities to moving to a supply chain flow-through operating model, with substantial opportunities in inventory reduction, lead-time to patient, and radically different product assurance/stability regimes. Scenarios for decentralized production models producing a greater variety of products with enhanced volume flexibility. Production, supply, and value chain footprints that are radically different from today's monolithic and centralized batch manufacturing operations. Clinical trial and drug product development cost savings that support more rapid scale-up and market entry models with early involvement of SC designers within New Product Development. The major supply chain and industrial transformational challenges that need to be addressed. The paper recognizes that although current batch operational performance in pharma is far from optimal and not necessarily an appropriate end-state benchmark for batch technology, the adoption of continuous supply chain operating models underpinned by continuous production processing, as full or hybrid solutions in selected product supply chains, can support industry transformations to deliver right-first-time quality at substantially lower inventory profiles. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association J Pharm Sci 104:840–849, 2015 PMID:25631279

Model-Based Engineering for Supply Chain Risk Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Privacy, 2009 [19] Julien Delange Wheel Brake System Example using AADL; Feiler, Peter; Hansson, Jörgen; de Niz, Dionisio; & Wrage, Lutz. System ...University Software Engineering Institute Abstract—Expanded use of commercial components has increased the complexity of system assurance...verification. Model- based engineering (MBE) offers a means to design, develop, analyze, and maintain a complex system architecture. Architecture Analysis

Damage and Loss Estimation for Natural Gas Networks: The Case of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çaktı, Eser; Hancılar, Ufuk; Şeşetyan, Karin; Bıyıkoǧlu, Hikmet; Şafak, Erdal

2017-04-01

Natural gas networks are one of the major lifeline systems to support human, urban and industrial activities. The continuity of gas supply is critical for almost all functions of modern life. Under natural phenomena such as earthquakes and landslides the damages to the system elements may lead to explosions and fires compromising human life and damaging physical environment. Furthermore, the disruption in the gas supply puts human activities at risk and also results in economical losses. This study is concerned with the performance of one of the largest natural gas distribution systems in the world. Physical damages to Istanbul's natural gas network are estimated under the most recent probabilistic earthquake hazard models available, as well as under simulated ground motions from physics based models. Several vulnerability functions are used in modelling damages to system elements. A first-order assessment of monetary losses to Istanbul's natural gas distribution network is also attempted.

Requirement analysis for the one-stop logistics management of fresh agricultural products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Gao, Hongmei; Liu, Yuchuan

2017-08-01

Issues and concerns for food safety, agro-processing, and the environmental and ecological impact of food production have been attracted many research interests. Traceability and logistics management of fresh agricultural products is faced with the technological challenges including food product label and identification, activity/process characterization, information systems for the supply chain, i.e., from farm to table. Application of one-stop logistics service focuses on the whole supply chain process integration for fresh agricultural products is studied. A collaborative research project for the supply and logistics of fresh agricultural products in Tianjin was performed. Requirement analysis for the one-stop logistics management information system is studied. The model-driven business transformation, an approach uses formal models to explicitly define the structure and behavior of a business, is applied for the review and analysis process. Specific requirements for the logistic management solutions are proposed. Development of this research is crucial for the solution of one-stop logistics management information system integration platform for fresh agricultural products.

A closed-loop supply chain inventory model for manufacturer - Collector system with inspection, waste disposal and price-quality dependent return rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putri, Anissa Rianda; Jauhari, Wakhid Ahmad; Rosyidi, Cucuk Nur

2017-11-01

This paper studies a closed-loop supply chain inventory model, where the primary market demand is fulfilled by newly produced products and remanufactured products. We intend to integrate a manufacturer and a collector as a supply chain system. Used items are collected and will be inspected and sorted by the collector, and the return rate of used items is depended upon price and quality factor. Used items that aren't pass this process, will be considered as waste and undergone waste disposal process. Recoverable used items will be sent to the manufacturer for recovery process. This paper applies two types of the recovery process for used products, i.e. remanufacture and refurbish. The refurbished items are sold to a secondary market with lower price than primary market price. Further, the amount of recoverable items depend upon the acceptance level of the returned items. This proposed model gives an optimal solution by maximizing the joint total profit. Moreover, a numerical example is presented to describe the application of the model.

Urban water infrastructure optimization to reduce environmental impacts and costs.

PubMed

Lim, Seong-Rin; Suh, Sangwon; Kim, Jung-Hoon; Park, Hung Suck

2010-01-01

Urban water planning and policy have been focusing on environmentally benign and economically viable water management. The objective of this study is to develop a mathematical model to integrate and optimize urban water infrastructures for supply-side planning and policy: freshwater resources and treated wastewater are allocated to various water demand categories in order to reduce contaminants in the influents supplied for drinking water, and to reduce consumption of the water resources imported from the regions beyond a city boundary. A case study is performed to validate the proposed model. An optimal urban water system of a metropolitan city is calculated on the basis of the model and compared to the existing water system. The integration and optimization decrease (i) average concentrations of the influents supplied for drinking water, which can improve human health and hygiene; (ii) total consumption of water resources, as well as electricity, reducing overall environmental impacts; (iii) life cycle cost; and (iv) water resource dependency on other regions, improving regional water security. This model contributes to sustainable urban water planning and policy. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance analysis of Supply Chain Management with Supply Chain Operation reference model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasibuan, Abdurrozzaq; Arfah, Mahrani; Parinduri, Luthfi; Hernawati, Tri; Suliawati; Harahap, Bonar; Rahmah Sibuea, Siti; Krianto Sulaiman, Oris; purwadi, Adi

2018-04-01

This research was conducted at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora, the company is required to think creatively to implement competition strategy by producing goods/services that are more qualified, cheaper. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the performance of Supply Chain Management in order to improve the competitiveness. Therefore, the company is required to optimize its production output to meet the export quality standard. This research begins with the creation of initial dimensions based on Supply Chain Management process, ie Plan, Source, Make, Delivery, and Return with hierarchy based on Supply Chain Reference Operation that is Reliability, Responsiveness, Agility, Cost, and Asset. Key Performance Indicator identification becomes a benchmark in performance measurement whereas Snorm De Boer normalization serves to equalize Key Performance Indicator value. Analiytical Hierarchy Process is done to assist in determining priority criteria. Measurement of Supply Chain Management performance at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora produces SC. Responsiveness (0.649) has higher weight (priority) than other alternatives. The result of performance analysis using Supply Chain Reference Operation model of Supply Chain Management performance at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora looks good because its monitoring system between 50-100 is good.

Some Issues of Electrical Systems Modeling in Course of PSA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lankin, Michael

2002-07-01

Electrical power supply systems are one of the essential parts of nuclear power plants. The distinctive feature of these systems from the PSA analyst's point of view is significant amount of bi-directional dependencies present within electrical systems. This paper describes an approach that has been used for electrical systems modeling in course of Kola 4 NPP Level 1 PSA. (authors)

Active cleaning technique device

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shannon, R. L.; Gillette, R. B.

1973-01-01

The objective of this program was to develop a laboratory demonstration model of an active cleaning technique (ACT) device. The principle of this device is based primarily on the technique for removing contaminants from optical surfaces. This active cleaning technique involves exposing contaminated surfaces to a plasma containing atomic oxygen or combinations of other reactive gases. The ACT device laboratory demonstration model incorporates, in addition to plasma cleaning, the means to operate the device as an ion source for sputtering experiments. The overall ACT device includes a plasma generation tube, an ion accelerator, a gas supply system, a RF power supply and a high voltage dc power supply.

Antiretroviral drug supply challenges in the era of scaling up ART in Malawi.

PubMed

Schouten, Erik J; Jahn, Andreas; Ben-Smith, Anne; Makombe, Simon D; Harries, Anthony D; Aboagye-Nyame, Francis; Chimbwandira, Frank

2011-07-06

The number of people receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) has increased considerably in recent years and is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. A major challenge is to maintain uninterrupted supplies of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and prevent stock outs. This article discusses issues around the management of ARVs and prevention of stock outs in Malawi, a low-income country with a high HIV/AIDS burden, and a weak procurement and supply chain management system. This system for ARVs, paid for by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and bypassing the government Central Medical Stores, is in place, using the United Nations Children's Fund's (UNICEF's) procurement services. The system, managed by a handful of people who spend limited time on supply management, is characterized by a centrally coordinated quantification based on verified data from all national ART clinics, parallel procurement through UNICEF, and direct distribution to ART clinics. The model worked well in the first years of the ART programme with a single first-line ARV regimen, but with more regimens becoming available (e.g., alternative first-line, second-line and paediatric regimens), it has become more difficult to administer. Managing supplies through a parallel system has the advantage that weaknesses in the national system have limited influence on the ARV procurement and supply chain management system. However, as the current system operates without a central warehouse and national buffer stock capacity, it diminishes the ability to prevent ARV stock outs. The process of ordering ARVs, from the time that estimates are made to the arrival of supplies in health facilities, takes approximately one year. Addressing the challenges involved in maintaining ARVs through an efficient procurement and supply chain management system that prevents ARV stock outs through the establishment of a dedicated procurement team, a central warehouse and/or national buffer stock is a priority.

A coupled human-natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

2016-09-01

Exponentially growing water demands and increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes due to changes in climate and land use are challenging the sustainability of agricultural water systems. Farmers must adapt their management strategies in order to secure food production and avoid crop failures. Investigating the potential for adaptation policies in agricultural systems requires accounting for their natural and human components, along with their reciprocal interactions. Yet this feedback is generally overlooked in the water resources systems literature. In this work, we contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta-models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human-natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The application to the pilot study of the Adda River basin in northern Italy shows that the dynamic coadaptation of water supply and demand allows farmers to avoid estimated potential losses of more than 10 M€/yr under projected climate changes, while unilateral adaptation of either the water supply or the demand are both demonstrated to be less effective. Results also show that the impact of the different policy options varies as function of drought intensity, with water demand adaptation outperforming water supply adaptation when drought conditions become more severe.

Urban stormwater - greywater management system for sustainable urban water management at sub-watershed level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh Arora, Amarpreet

2017-11-01

Urban water management involves urban water supply (import, treatment and distribution of water), urban wastewater management (collection, treatment and disposal of urban sewage) and urban storm water management. Declining groundwater tables, polluted and declining sources of water, water scarcity in urban areas, unsatisfactory urban water supply and sanitation situation, pollution of receiving water bodies (including the ground water), and urban floods have become the concerns and issues of sustainable urban water management. This paper proposes a model for urban stormwater and sewage management which addresses these concerns and issues of sustainable urban water management. This model proposes segregation of the sewage into black water and greywater, and urban sub-watershed level stormwater-greywater management systems. During dry weather this system will be handling only the greywater and making the latter available as reclaimed water for reuse in place of the fresh water supply. During wet weather, the system will be taking care of (collection and treatment) both the storm water and the greywater, and the excess of the treated water will be disposed off through groundwater recharging. Application of this model in the Patiala city, Punjab, INDIA for selected urban sub-watersheds has been tried. Information and background data required for the conceptualization and design of the sub-watershed level urban stormwater-greywater management system was collected and the system has been designed for one of the sub-watersheds in the Patiala city. In this paper, the model for sustainable urban water management and the design of the Sub-watershed level Urban Stormwater-Greywater Management System are described.

Mechanics of Flapping Flight: Analytical Formulations of Unsteady Aerodynamics, Kinematic Optimization, Flight Dynamics, and Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taneja, Jayant Kumar

Electricity is an indispensable commodity to modern society, yet it is delivered via a grid architecture that remains largely unchanged over the past century. A host of factors are conspiring to topple this dated yet venerated design: developments in renewable electricity generation technology, policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and advances in information technology for managing energy systems. Modern electric grids are emerging as complex distributed systems in which a portfolio of power generation resources, often incorporating fluctuating renewable resources such as wind and solar, must be managed dynamically to meet uncontrolled, time-varying demand. Uncertainty in both supply and demand makes control of modern electric grids fundamentally more challenging, and growing portfolios of renewables exacerbate the challenge. We study three electricity grids: the state of California, the province of Ontario, and the country of Germany. To understand the effects of increasing renewables, we develop a methodology to scale renewables penetration. Analyzing these grids yields key insights about rigid limits to renewables penetration and their implications in meeting long-term emissions targets. We argue that to achieve deep penetration of renewables, the operational model of the grid must be inverted, changing the paradigm from load-following supplies to supply-following loads. To alleviate the challenge of supply-demand matching on deeply renewable grids, we first examine well-known techniques, including altering management of existing supply resources, employing utility-scale energy storage, targeting energy efficiency improvements, and exercising basic demand-side management. Then, we create several instantiations of supply-following loads -- including refrigerators, heating and cooling systems, and laptop computers -- by employing a combination of sensor networks, advanced control techniques, and enhanced energy storage. We examine the capacity of each load for supply-following and study the behaviors of populations of these loads, assessing their potential at various levels of deployment throughout the California electricity grid. Using combinations of supply-following strategies, we can reduce peak natural gas generation by 19% on a model of the California grid with 60% renewables. We then assess remaining variability on this deeply renewable grid incorporating supply-following loads, characterizing additional capabilities needed to ensure supply-demand matching in future sustainable electricity grids.

Bayesian estimation of magma supply, storage, and eruption rates using a multiphysical volcano model: Kīlauea Volcano, 2000–2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Kyle R.; Poland, Michael

2016-01-01

Estimating rates of magma supply to the world's volcanoes remains one of the most fundamental aims of volcanology. Yet, supply rates can be difficult to estimate even at well-monitored volcanoes, in part because observations are noisy and are usually considered independently rather than as part of a holistic system. In this work we demonstrate a technique for probabilistically estimating time-variable rates of magma supply to a volcano through probabilistic constraint on storage and eruption rates. This approach utilizes Bayesian joint inversion of diverse datasets using predictions from a multiphysical volcano model, and independent prior information derived from previous geophysical, geochemical, and geological studies. The solution to the inverse problem takes the form of a probability density function which takes into account uncertainties in observations and prior information, and which we sample using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Applying the technique to Kīlauea Volcano, we develop a model which relates magma flow rates with deformation of the volcano's surface, sulfur dioxide emission rates, lava flow field volumes, and composition of the volcano's basaltic magma. This model accounts for effects and processes mostly neglected in previous supply rate estimates at Kīlauea, including magma compressibility, loss of sulfur to the hydrothermal system, and potential magma storage in the volcano's deep rift zones. We jointly invert data and prior information to estimate rates of supply, storage, and eruption during three recent quasi-steady-state periods at the volcano. Results shed new light on the time-variability of magma supply to Kīlauea, which we find to have increased by 35–100% between 2001 and 2006 (from 0.11–0.17 to 0.18–0.28 km3/yr), before subsequently decreasing to 0.08–0.12 km3/yr by 2012. Changes in supply rate directly impact hazard at the volcano, and were largely responsible for an increase in eruption rate of 60–150% between 2001 and 2006, and subsequent decline by as much as 60% by 2012. We also demonstrate the occurrence of temporal changes in the proportion of Kīlauea's magma supply that is stored versus erupted, with the supply “surge” in 2006 associated with increased accumulation of magma at the summit. Finally, we are able to place some constraints on sulfur concentrations in Kīlauea magma and the scrubbing of sulfur by the volcano's hydrothermal system. Multiphysical, Bayesian constraint on magma flow rates may be used to monitor evolving volcanic hazard not just at Kīlauea but at other volcanoes around the world.

Exploring the evolutionary mechanism of complex supply chain systems using evolving hypergraphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Sun, Shiwei; Liu, Han

2018-01-01

A new evolutionary model is proposed to describe the characteristics and evolution pattern of supply chain systems using evolving hypergraphs, in which nodes represent enterprise entities while hyperedges represent the relationships among diverse trades. The nodes arrive at the system in accordance with a Poisson process, with the evolving process incorporating the addition of new nodes, linking of old nodes, and rewiring of links. Grounded in the Poisson process theory and continuum theory, the stationary average hyperdegree distribution is shown to follow a shifted power law (SPL), and the theoretical predictions are consistent with the results of numerical simulations. Testing the impact of parameters on the model yields a positive correlation between hyperdegree and degree. The model also uncovers macro characteristics of the relationships among enterprises due to the microscopic interactions among individuals.

On the modelling of linear-assisted DC-DC voltage regulators for photovoltaic solar energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-García, Herminio; García-Vílchez, Encarna

2017-11-01

This paper shows the modelling of linear-assisted or hybrid (linear & switching) DC/DC voltage regulators. In this kind of regulators, an auxiliary linear regulator is used, which objective is to cancel the ripple at the output voltage and provide fast responses for load variations. On the other hand, a switching DC/DC converter, connected in parallel with the linear regulator, allows to supply almost the whole output current demanded by the load. The objective of this topology is to take advantage of the suitable regulation characteristics that series linear voltage regulators have, but almost achieving the high efficiency that switching DC/DC converters provide. Linear-assisted DC/DC regulators are feedback systems with potential instability. Therefore, their modelling is mandatory in order to obtain design guidelines and assure stability of the implemented power supply system.

Lean production in improving supply chain performance through hybrid model SCOR 11.0 - system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, Chairul; Fatcha Mubiena, Ghaida; Immawan, Taufiq; Hassan, Azmi

2016-02-01

Supply Chain Operation Reference (SCOR) is a method to measure supply chain serving the business process framework, performance indicators and unique technologies to support communication and collaboration among supply chain partners. The objective of this paper is to measure Supply Chain Management performance by using SCOR version 11.0 for production typology of MTS-MTO in Indonesian Batik Industry. This research combines SCOR's model and System Dynamics in order to predict the complex activities on batik industry. The hybrid SCOR-SD could identify the interaction among five attributes with the associated variables simultaneously. The results are obtained after the performance of lean production application is increased and the targets are achieved, even exceeding the target. For reliability attributes that associated with perfect order fulfilment started from 2015 to 2019 respectively are calculated as 80.06%, 103.53%, 105.58%, 93.76%, and 72.17%. Responsiveness attributes associated with the order fulfilment cycle time, respectively 122.45%, 149.10%, 159.26%, 131.53%, and 119.36%. Attributes associated with the total cost of service charge respectively 93.46%, 93.53%, 93.45%, 93.49, and 93.49%. Attributes associated with cash management assets to cash cycle time in a row were 160%, 153%, 146.3%, 150%, and 126.7%. The latter attribute is agility attributes associated with supply chain flexibility upside respectively 100%, 87.2%, 100%, 82%, and 82%.

[Organization of the drug supply chain in state health services: potential consequences of the public-private mix].

PubMed

López-Moreno, Sergio; Martínez-Ojeda, Rosa Haydeé; López-Arellano, Oliva; Jarillo-Soto, Edgar; Castro-Albarrán, Juan Manuel

2011-01-01

To assess the consequences of private outsourcing on the overall supply and filling of prescriptions in state health services. The research was conducted using quantitative and qualitative techniques in 13 states. The information was collected through interviews and direct observation. The interviews were carried on staff of state health services related to the drug supply chain and users of health services. The quantitative approach examined the percentage of stocked full recipes in a sample of users. States that have opted for the fully outsourced model, and properly monitored this choice, have increased the supply of drugs to their users and guaranteed the supply in the care units in charge. Other states with the outsourced model have multiple problems: direct purchase of drugs not included in the basic drugs catalogue, failure of suppliers and shortage of supplies in the laboratories that provide the company. The main disadvantages identified in all models were: the subordination of the medical criteria to administrative criteria, insufficient planning based on local care needs, heterogeneous procedures, insufficient knowledge of regulations and lack of normativity. The results indicate that the incorporation of private providers in the drug supply chain may not be the solution to bring down the shortage faced by health services, especially at the hospital level. The shift to outsourcing models has developed without incorporating evaluation mechanisms and the consequences that this transition can have on state health systems must be investigated more deeply.

A hybrid system dynamics and optimization approach for supporting sustainable water resources planning in Zhengzhou City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan; Peng, Cong; Cai, Yanpeng; Huang, Weichen

2018-01-01

Problems with water resources restrict the sustainable development of a city with water shortages. Based on system dynamics (SD) theory, a model of sustainable utilization of water resources using the STELLA software has been established. This model consists of four subsystems: population system, economic system, water supply system and water demand system. The boundaries of the four subsystems are vague, but they are closely related and interdependent. The model is applied to Zhengzhou City, China, which has a serious water shortage. The difference between the water supply and demand is very prominent in Zhengzhou City. The model was verified with data from 2009 to 2013. The results show that water demand of Zhengzhou City will reach 2.57 billion m3 in 2020. A water resources optimization model is developed based on interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming. The objective of the model is to allocate water resources to each water sector and make the lowest cost under the minimum water demand. Using the simulation results, decision makers can easily weigh the costs of the system, the water allocation objectives, and the system risk. The hybrid system dynamics method and optimization model is a rational try to support water resources management in many cities, particularly for cities with potential water shortage and it is solidly supported with previous studies and collected data.

Supply Chain Development: Insights from Strategic Niche Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caniels, Marjolein C. J.; Romijn, Henny A.

2008-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the study of supply chain design from the perspective of complex dynamic systems. Unlike extant studies that use formal simulation modelling and associated methodologies rooted in the physical sciences, it adopts a framework rooted in the social sciences, strategic niche management, which…

Sociohydrology of an Arid City: Development of a Coupled Model of Water Management in Las Vegas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.; Portney, K. E.

2014-12-01

Rapidly growing cities in arid regions present a significant water management challenge. Key to tackling this challenge is understanding how and why some cities transition to more sustainable water management; acknowledging that urban water resources decisions are both responding to and precipitating hydrologic change, this question is best tackled through a sociohydrology approach. While coupling of natural and societal systems is in it's infancy in the field of hydrology, there is a strong tradition of studying coupled systems in the field of Socio-Ecological Systems. We build on Ostrom's Socio-Ecological Systems framework to develop a system dynamics model of water management for the Las Vegas metropolitan area using Vensim. A key objective our proposed modeling framework is to illuminate the dynamic interactions of the sociohydrologic system components and enable testing of various assumptions and strategies. The model of Las Vegas water management consists of five sub-modules: water supply, water demand, finances, public perception and policy making process. The development of the first three modules were based on clearly defined system structure. The public perception sub-module tracks the level public risk perception of a water supply shortage and represents the hypothesis that public risk perception is updated periodically when shortage events are experienced. The policy making process module uses an algorithm capturing the hypothesized decision making process to select policy actions (or in-action) from a set of feasible actions in response to the system states tracked by the model and observable to decision makers. The model was tested and parameterized using mix of quantitative data on water demands, supplies and costs and qualitative data from document analysis and interview data covering 1990 to 2010 period. Given that not only the parameters but also the structure of the public perception and the policy making process sub-systems is contested, a different approach must be taken to assess the robustness of these modules. Presented here is the development of the model, results of model testing against the historic reference modes using Las Vegas as an example, and future work planned to improve the robustness of the model.

A Systems Approach to Manage Drinking Water Quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Drinking water supplies can be vulnerable to impacts from short-term weather events, long-term changes in land-use and climate, and water quality controls in treatment and distribution. Disinfection by-product (DBP) formation in drinking water is a prominent example to illustrate the water supply vulnerability and examine technological options in adaptation. Total organic carbon (TOC) in surface water can vary significantly due to changes or a combination of changes in watershed land use, climate variability, and extreme meteorological events (e.g., hurricanes). On the other hand, water demand is known to vary temporarily and spatially leading to changes in water ages and hence DBP formation potential. Typically a drinking water facility is designed to operate within a projected range of influent water quality and water demand. When the variations exceed the design range, water supply becomes vulnerable in the compliance to Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) Stage-II disinfection by-product (DBP) rules. This paper describes a framework of systems-level modeling, monitoring and control in adaptive planning and system operation. The framework, built upon the integration of model projections, adaptive monitoring and systems control, has three primary functions. Its advantages and limitations will be discussed with the application examples in Cincinnati (Ohio, USA) and Las Vegas (Nevada, USA). At a conceptual level, an integrated land use and hydrological model

A Computer Model of the Cardiovascular System for Effective Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothe, Carl F.

1979-01-01

Described is a physiological model which solves a set of interacting, possibly nonlinear, differential equations through numerical integration on a digital computer. Sample printouts are supplied and explained for effects on the components of a cardiovascular system when exercise, hemorrhage, and cardiac failure occur. (CS)

Design of Instantaneous High Power Supply System with power distribution management for portable military devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwak, Kiho; Kwak, Dongmin; Yoon, Joohong

2015-08-01

A design of an Instantaneous High Power Supply System (IHPSS) with a power distribution management (PDM) for portable military devices is newly addressed. The system includes a power board and a hybrid battery that can not only supply instantaneous high power but also maintain stable operation at critical low temperature (-30 °C). The power leakage and battery overcharge are effectively prevented by the optimal PDM. The performance of the proposed system under the required pulse loads and the operating conditions of a Korean Advanced Combat Rifle employed in the battlefield is modeled with simulations and verified experimentally. The system with the IHPSS charged the fuse setter with 1.7 times higher voltage (8.6 V) than the one without (5.4 V) under the pulse discharging rate (1 A at 0.5 duty, 1 ms) for 500 ms.

How do how internal and external processes affect the behaviors of coupled marsh mudflat systems; infill, stabilize, retreat, or drown?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, J. A.; Mariotti, G.; Wiberg, P.; Fagherazzi, S.; McGlathery, K.

2013-12-01

Intertidal coastal environments are prone to changes induced by sea level rise, increases in storminess, and anthropogenic disturbances. It is unclear how changes in external drivers may affect the dynamics of low energy coastal environments because their response is non-linear, and characterized by many thresholds and discontinuities. As such, process-based modeling of the ecogeomorphic processes underlying the dynamics of these ecosystems is useful, not only to predict their change through time, but also to generate new hypotheses and research questions. Here, a three-point dynamic model was developed to investigate how internal and external processes affect the behavior of coupled marsh mudflat systems. The model directly incorporates ecogeomorphological feedbacks between wind waves, salt marsh vegetation, allochthonous sediment loading, tidal flat vegetation and sea level rise. The model was applied to examine potential trajectories of salt marshes on the Eastern seaboard of the United States, including those in the Plum Island Ecosystems (PIE), Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR) and Georgia Coastal Ecosystems (GCE) long term ecological research (LTER) sites. While these sites are undergoing similar rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR), they have distinct differences in site specific environmental drivers including tides, wind waves, allochthonous sediment supply and the presence or absence of seagrass. These differences lead to the emergence of altered behaviors in the coupled salt marsh-tidal flat system. For marsh systems without seagrass or significant riverine sediment supply, conditions similar to those at PIE, results indicated that horizontal and vertical marsh evolution respond in opposing ways to wave induced processes. Marsh horizontal retreat is triggered by large mudflats and strong winds, whereas small mudflats and weak winds reduce the sediment supply to the salt marsh, decreasing its capability to keep pace with sea level rise. Marsh expansion and an eventual lateral equilibrium are possible only with large allochthonous sediment supply. Once marshes expanded, marsh retreat can be prevented by a sediment supply smaller than the one that filled the basin. At the GCE, the Altamaha River allows for enhanced allochthonous supply directly to the salt marsh platform, reducing the importance of waves on the tidal flat. As a result, infilling or retreat become the prevalent behaviors. For the VCR, the presence of seagrass decreases near bed shear stresses and sediment flux to the salt marsh platform, however, seagrass also reduces the wave energy acting on the boundary of the marsh reducing boundary erosion. Results indicate that the reduction in wave power allows for seagrass to provide a strong stabilizing affect on the coupled salt marsh tidal flat system, but as external sediment supply increases and light conditions decline the system reverts to that of a bare tidal flat. Across all systems and with current rates of sea level rise, retreat is a more likely marsh loss modality than drowning.

A Chemical Engineer's Perspective on Health and Disease

PubMed Central

Androulakis, Ioannis P.

2014-01-01

Chemical process systems engineering considers complex supply chains which are coupled networks of dynamically interacting systems. The quest to optimize the supply chain while meeting robustness and flexibility constraints in the face of ever changing environments necessitated the development of theoretical and computational tools for the analysis, synthesis and design of such complex engineered architectures. However, it was realized early on that optimality is a complex characteristic required to achieve proper balance between multiple, often competing, objectives. As we begin to unravel life's intricate complexities, we realize that that living systems share similar structural and dynamic characteristics; hence much can be learned about biological complexity from engineered systems. In this article, we draw analogies between concepts in process systems engineering and conceptual models of health and disease; establish connections between these concepts and physiologic modeling; and describe how these mirror onto the physiological counterparts of engineered systems. PMID:25506103

Development Status of the NSTAR Ion Propulsion System Power Processor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamley, John A.; Pinero, Luis R.; Rawlin, Vincent K.; Miller, John R.; Cartier, Kevin C.; Bowers, Glen E.

1995-01-01

A 0.5-2.3 kW xenon ion propulsion system is presently being developed under the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program. This propulsion system includes a 30 cm diameter xenon ion thruster, a Digital Control Interface Unit, a xenon feed system, and a power processing unit (PPU). The PPU consists of the power supply assemblies which operate the thruster neutralizer, main discharge chamber, and ion optics. Also included are recycle logic and a digital microcontroller. The neutralizer and discharge power supplies employ a dual use configuration which combines the functions of two power supplies into one, significantly simplifying the PPU. Further simplification was realized by implementing a single thruster control loop which regulates the beam current via the discharge current. Continuous throttling is possible over a 0.5-2.3 kW output power range. All three power supplies have been fabricated and tested with resistive loads, and have been combined into a single breadboard unit with the recycle logic and microcontroller. All line and load regulation test results show the power supplies to be within the NSTAR flight PPU specified power output of 1.98 kW. The overall efficiency of the PPU, calculated as the combined efficiencies of the power supplies and controller, at 2.3 kW delivered to resistive loads was 0.90. The component was 6.16 kg. Integration testing of the neutralizer and discharge power supplies with a functional model thruster revealed no issues with discharge ignition or steady state operation.

Innovative Tools for Water Quality/Quantity Management: New York City's Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Porter, J.; Sheer, D. P.; Pyke, G.

2011-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies more than 1 billion gallons of water per day to over 9 million customers. Recently, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST), a state-of-the-art decision support system to provide computational and predictive support for water supply operations and planning. This presentation describes the technical structure of OST, including the underlying water supply and water quality models, data sources and database management, reservoir inflow forecasts, and the functionalities required to meet the needs of a diverse group of end users. OST is a major upgrade of DEP's current water supply - water quality model, developed to evaluate alternatives for controlling turbidity in NYC's Catskill reservoirs. While the current model relies on historical hydrologic and meteorological data, OST can be driven by forecasted future conditions. It will receive a variety of near-real-time data from a number of sources. OST will support two major types of simulations: long-term, for evaluating policy or infrastructure changes over an extended period of time; and short-term "position analysis" (PA) simulations, consisting of multiple short simulations, all starting from the same initial conditions. Typically, the starting conditions for a PA run will represent those for the current day and traces of forecasted hydrology will drive the model for the duration of the simulation period. The result of these simulations will be a distribution of future system states based on system operating rules and the range of input ensemble streamflow predictions. DEP managers will analyze the output distributions and make operation decisions using risk-based metrics such as probability of refill. Currently, in the developmental stages of OST, forecasts are based on antecedent hydrologic conditions and are statistical in nature. The statistical algorithm is a relatively simple and versatile, but lacks short-term skill critical for water quality and spill management. To improve short-term skill, OST will ultimately operate with meteorologically driven hydrologic forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS). OST functionalities will support a wide range of DEP uses, including short term operational projections, outage planning and emergency management, operating rule development, and water supply planning. A core use of OST will be to inform reservoir management strategies to control and mitigate turbidity events while ensuring water supply reliability. OST will also allow DEP to manage its complex reservoir system to meet multiple objectives, including ecological flows, tailwater fisheries and recreational releases, and peak flow mitigation for downstream communities.

Magnetic suspension and balance system advanced study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boom, R. W.; Eyssa, Y. M.; Mcintosh, G. E.; Abdelsalam, M. K.

1985-01-01

An improved compact design for a superconducting magnetic suspension and balance system for an 8 ft. x 8 ft. transonic wind tunnel is developed. The original design of an MSBS in NASA Cr-3802 utilized 14 external superconductive coils and a superconductive solenoid in the airplane test model suspended in a wind tunnel. The improvements are in the following areas: test model solenoid options, dynamic force limits on the model, magnet cooling options, structure and cryogenic designs, power supply specifications, and cost and performance evaluations. The improvements are: MSBS cost reduction of 28%, weight; reduction of 43%, magnet system ampere-meter reduction of 38%, helium liquifier capacity reduction by 33%, magnet system stored energy reduction by 55%, AC loss to liquid helium reduced by 76%, system power supply reduced by 68%, test coil pole strength increased by 19%, wing magnetization increased by 40%, and control frequency limit increased by 200% from 10 Hz to 30 Hz. The improvements are due to: magnetic holmium coil forms in the test model, better rare earth permanent magnets in the wings, fiberglass-epoxy structure replacing stainless steel, better coil configuration, and new saddle roll coil design.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-01-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Urban water supply infrastructure planning under predictive groundwater uncertainty: Bayesian updating and flexible design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

2017-12-01

Many urban water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply, driven by short-term climate variability and long-term climate change. These uncertainties are often exacerbated in groundwater-dependent water systems due to the extra difficulty in measuring groundwater storage, recharge, and sustainable yield. Groundwater models are typically under-parameterized due to the high data requirements for calibration and limited data availability, leading to uncertainty in the models' predictions. We develop an integrated approach to urban water supply planning that combines predictive groundwater uncertainty analysis with adaptive water supply planning using multi-stage decision analysis. This allows us to compare the value of collecting additional groundwater data and reducing predictive uncertainty with the value of using water infrastructure planning that is flexible, modular, and can react quickly in response to unexpected changes in groundwater availability. We apply this approach to a case from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and desalination for urban use. The main fossil aquifers incur minimal recharge and face depletion as a result of intense withdrawals for urban and agricultural use. As the water table declines and pumping becomes uneconomical, Riyadh will have to build new supply infrastructure, decrease demand, or increase the efficiency of its distribution system. However, poor groundwater characterization has led to severe uncertainty in aquifer parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, and therefore severe uncertainty in how the water table will respond to pumping over time and when these transitions will be necessary: the potential depletion time varies from approximately five years to 100 years. This case is an excellent candidate for flexible planning both because of its severity and the potential for learning: additional information can be collected over time and flexible options exercised in response. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to find optimal policies for using flexibility under different information scenarios. The performance of each strategy is then assessed using a simulation model of Riyadh's water system.

Addressing drug adherence using an operations management model.

PubMed

Nunlee, Martin; Bones, Michelle

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To provide a model that enables health systems and pharmacy benefit managers to provide medications reliably and test for reliability and validity in the analysis of adherence to drug therapy of chronic disease. SUMMARY The quantifiable model described here can be used in conjunction with behavioral designs of drug adherence assessments. The model identifies variables that can be reproduced and expanded across the management of chronic diseases with drug therapy. By creating a reorder point system for reordering medications, the model uses a methodology commonly seen in operations research. The design includes a safety stock of medication and current supply of medication, which increases the likelihood that patients will have a continuous supply of medications, thereby positively affecting adherence by removing barriers. CONCLUSION This method identifies an adherence model that quantifies variables related to recommendations from health care providers; it can assist health care and service delivery systems in making decisions that influence adherence based on the expected order cycle days and the expected daily quantity of medication administered. This model addresses the possession of medication as a barrier to adherence.

Lasers for Training Devices.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, C. A.

A breadboard model of a laser display system is described in detail and its operating procedure is outlined. The system consists of: a Model 52 argon krypton ion laser and power supply; an optical breadboard comprising a pocket cell light modulator, a galvonmeter beam deflector for vertical scanning, a unique multiple reflection beam steerer for…

A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.

2012-01-01

Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Photovoltaic venture analysis. Final report. Volume I. Executive summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costello, D.; Posner, D.; Schiffel, D.

1978-07-01

The objective of the study, government programs under investigation, and a brief review of the approach are presented. Potential markets for photovoltaic systems relevant to the study are described. The response of the photovoltaic supply industry is then considered. A model which integrates the supply and demand characteristics of photovoltaics over time was developed. This model also calculates the economic benefits associated with various government subsidy programs. Results are derived under alternative possible supply, demand, and macroeconomic conditions. A probabilistic analysis of the costs and benefits of a $380 million federal photovoltaic procurement initiative, as well as certain alternative strategies,more » is summarized. Conclusions and recommendations based on the analysis are presented.« less

Holistic energy system modeling combining multi-objective optimization and life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauner, Sebastian; Budzinski, Maik

2017-12-01

Making the global energy system more sustainable has emerged as a major societal concern and policy objective. This transition comes with various challenges and opportunities for a sustainable evolution affecting most of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. We therefore propose broadening the current metrics for sustainability in the energy system modeling field by using industrial ecology techniques to account for a conclusive set of indicators. This is pursued by including a life cycle based sustainability assessment into an energy system model considering all relevant products and processes of the global supply chain. We identify three pronounced features: (i) the low-hanging fruit of impact mitigation requiring manageable economic effort; (ii) embodied emissions of renewables cause increasing spatial redistribution of impact from direct emissions, the place of burning fuel, to indirect emissions, the location of the energy infrastructure production; (iii) certain impact categories, in which more overall sustainable systems perform worse than the cost minimal system, require a closer look. In essence, this study makes the case for future energy system modeling to include the increasingly important global supply chain and broaden the metrics of sustainability further than cost and climate change relevant emissions.

Cryogenic Fluid Management Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eberhardt, R. N.; Bailey, W. J.

1985-01-01

The Cryogenic Fluid Management Facility is a reusable test bed which is designed to be carried within the Shuttle cargo bay to investigate the systems and technologies associated with the efficient management of cryogens in space. Cryogenic fluid management consists of the systems and technologies for: (1) liquid storage and supply, including capillary acquisition/expulsion systems which provide single-phase liquid to the user system, (2) both passive and active thermal control systems, and (3) fluid transfer/resupply systems, including transfer lines and receiver tanks. The facility contains a storage and supply tank, a transfer line and a receiver tank, configured to provide low-g verification of fluid and thermal models of cryogenic storage and transfer processes. The facility will provide design data and criteria for future subcritical cryogenic storage and transfer system applications, such as Space Station life support, attitude control, power and fuel depot supply, resupply tankers, external tank (ET) propellant scavenging, and ground-based and space-based orbit transfer vehicles (OTV).

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

DOE PAGES

Basore, Paul A.; Cole, Wesley J.

2018-02-22

We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply-focused model based on supply-chain growth constraints and a demand-focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in whichmore » low-cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply-focused and demand-focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GWdc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GWdc in 2040. With low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GWdc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GWdc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.« less

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basore, Paul A.; Cole, Wesley J.

We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply-focused model based on supply-chain growth constraints and a demand-focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in whichmore » low-cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply-focused and demand-focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GWdc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GWdc in 2040. With low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GWdc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GWdc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.« less

Solar pv fed stand-alone excitation system of a synchronous machine for reactive power generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhakar, N.; Jain, Siddhartha; Jyotheeswara Reddy, K.

2017-11-01

This paper presents a model of a stand-alone solar energy conversion system based on synchronous machine working as a synchronous condenser in overexcited state. The proposed model consists of a Synchronous Condenser, a DC/DC boost converter whose output is fed to the field of the SC. The boost converter is supplied by the modelled solar panel and a day time variable irradiance is fed to the panel during the simulation time. The model also has one alternate source of rechargeable batteries for the time when irradiance falls below a threshold value. Also the excess power produced when there is ample irradiance is divided in two parts and one is fed to the boost converter while other is utilized to recharge the batteries. A simulation is done in MATLAB-SIMULINK and the obtained results show the utility of such modelling for supplying reactive power is feasible.

How Do Substitute Teachers Substitute? An Empirical Study of Substitute-Teacher Labor Supply

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gershenson, Seth

2012-01-01

This paper examines the daily labor supply of a potentially important, but often overlooked, source of instruction in U.S. public schools: substitute teachers. I estimate a sequential binary-choice model of substitute teachers' job-offer acceptance decisions using data on job offers made by a randomized automated calling system. Importantly, this…

Controllable Bidirectional dc Power Sources For Large Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripp, John S.; Daniels, Taumi S.

1995-01-01

System redesigned for greater efficiency, durability, and controllability. Modern electronically controlled dc power sources proposed to supply currents to six electromagnets used to position aerodynamic test model in wind tunnel. Six-phase bridge rectifier supplies load with large current at voltage of commanded magnitude and polarity. Current-feedback circuit includes current-limiting feature giving some protection against overload.

Shuttle cryogenic supply system optimization study. Volume 5A-1: Users manual for math models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The Integrated Math Model for Cryogenic Systems is a flexible, broadly applicable systems parametric analysis tool. The program will effectively accommodate systems of considerable complexity involving large numbers of performance dependent variables such as are found in the individual and integrated cryogen systems. Basically, the program logic structure pursues an orderly progression path through any given system in much the same fashion as is employed for manual systems analysis. The system configuration schematic is converted to an alpha-numeric formatted configuration data table input starting with the cryogen consumer and identifying all components, such as lines, fittings, and valves, each in its proper order and ending with the cryogen supply source assembly. Then, for each of the constituent component assemblies, such as gas generators, turbo machinery, heat exchangers, and accumulators, the performance requirements are assembled in input data tabulations. Systems operating constraints and duty cycle definitions are further added as input data coded to the configuration operating sequence.

System Dynamics of Polysilicon for Solar Photovoltaics: A Framework for Investigating the Energy Security of Renewable Energy Supply Chains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandor, Debra; Fulton, Sadie; Engel-Cox, Jill

Renewable energy, produced with widely available low-cost energy resources, is often included as a component of national strategies to address energy security and sustainability. Market and political forces cannot disrupt the sun or wind, unlike oil and gas supplies. However, the cost of renewable energy is highly dependent on technologies manufactured through global supply chains in leading manufacturing countries. The countries that contribute to the global supply chains may take actions that, directly or indirectly, influence global access to materials and components. For example, high-purity polysilicon, a key material in solar photovoltaics, has experienced significant price fluctuations, affecting the manufacturingmore » capacity and cost of both polysilicon and solar panels. This study has developed and validated an initial system dynamics framework to gain insights into global trade in polysilicon. The model represents an initial framework for exploration. Three regions were modeled-China, the United States, and the rest of the world - for a range of trade scenarios to understand the impacts of import duties and non-price drivers on the relative volumes of imports and domestic supply. The model was validated with the historical case of China imposing an import duty on polysilicon from the United States, the European Union, and South Korea, which altered the regional flows of polysilicon - in terms of imports, exports, and domestic production-to varying degrees. As expected, the model tracked how regional demand shares and influx volumes decrease as a duty on a region increases. Using 2016 as a reference point, in the scenarios examined for U.S. exports to China, each 10% increase in the import duty results in a 40% decrease in import volume. The model also indicates that, under the scenarios investigated, once a duty has been imposed on a region, the demand share from that region declines and does not achieve pre-duty levels, even as global demand increases. Adding additional countries and other components in the photovoltaic supply chain (panels, cells, wafers) to this model could enable policymakers to better understand the relative impact of trade measures across the entire photovoltaic module manufacturing supply chain and the conditions that encourage industry evolution and competitiveness.« less

System Dynamics of Polysilicon for Solar Photovoltaics: A Framework for Investigating the Energy Security of Renewable Energy Supply Chains

DOE PAGES

Sandor, Debra; Fulton, Sadie; Engel-Cox, Jill; ...

2018-01-11

Renewable energy, produced with widely available low-cost energy resources, is often included as a component of national strategies to address energy security and sustainability. Market and political forces cannot disrupt the sun or wind, unlike oil and gas supplies. However, the cost of renewable energy is highly dependent on technologies manufactured through global supply chains in leading manufacturing countries. The countries that contribute to the global supply chains may take actions that, directly or indirectly, influence global access to materials and components. For example, high-purity polysilicon, a key material in solar photovoltaics, has experienced significant price fluctuations, affecting the manufacturingmore » capacity and cost of both polysilicon and solar panels. This study has developed and validated an initial system dynamics framework to gain insights into global trade in polysilicon. The model represents an initial framework for exploration. Three regions were modeled-China, the United States, and the rest of the world - for a range of trade scenarios to understand the impacts of import duties and non-price drivers on the relative volumes of imports and domestic supply. The model was validated with the historical case of China imposing an import duty on polysilicon from the United States, the European Union, and South Korea, which altered the regional flows of polysilicon - in terms of imports, exports, and domestic production-to varying degrees. As expected, the model tracked how regional demand shares and influx volumes decrease as a duty on a region increases. Using 2016 as a reference point, in the scenarios examined for U.S. exports to China, each 10% increase in the import duty results in a 40% decrease in import volume. The model also indicates that, under the scenarios investigated, once a duty has been imposed on a region, the demand share from that region declines and does not achieve pre-duty levels, even as global demand increases. Adding additional countries and other components in the photovoltaic supply chain (panels, cells, wafers) to this model could enable policymakers to better understand the relative impact of trade measures across the entire photovoltaic module manufacturing supply chain and the conditions that encourage industry evolution and competitiveness.« less

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model: SECTORAL WATER MANAGEMENT IN IA-ESM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby

To advance understanding of the interactions between human activities and the water cycle, an integrated terrestrial water cycle component has been developed for Earth system models. This includes a land surface model fully coupled to a river routing model and a generic water management model to simulate natural and regulated flows. A global integrated assessment model and its regionalized version for the U.S. are used to simulate water demand consistent with the energy technology and socio-economics scenarios. Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage from reservoirs, consumptive use and withdrawal from multiple sectors ( irrigation and non-irrigation)more » and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. As groundwater provides an important source of water supply for irrigation and other uses, the integrated modeling framework has been extended with a simplified representation of groundwater as an additional supply source, and return flow generated from differences between withdrawals and consumptive uses from both groundwater and surface water systems. The groundwater supply and return flow modules are evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow, reservoir storage and supply deficit for irrigation and non-irrigation sectors over major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S. The modeling framework is then used to provide insights on the reliability of water resources by isolating the reliability due to return flow and/or groundwater sources of water. Our results show that high sectoral ratio of withdrawals over consumptive demand adds significant stress on the water resources management that can be alleviated by reservoir storage capacity. The return flow representation therefore exhibits a clear east-west contrast in its hydrologic signature, as well as in its ability to help meet water demand. Groundwater use has a limited hydrologic signature but the most pronounced signature is in terms of decreasing water supply deficit. The combined return flow and groundwater use signature conserves the east-west constrast with overall uncertainties due to the groundwater-return flow representation, varying ratios combined with different hydroclimate conditions, storage infrastructures, sectoral water uses and dependence on groundwater. The redistribution of surface and groundwater by human activities, and the uncertainties in their representation have important implications to the water and energy balances in the Earth system and land-atmosphere interactions.« less

A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

2007-07-01

SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

Energy saving potential of a two-pipe system for simultaneous heating and cooling of office buildings

DOE PAGES

Maccarini, Alessandro; Wetter, Michael; Afshari, Alireza; ...

2016-10-31

This paper analyzes the performance of a novel two-pipe system that operates one water loop to simultaneously provide space heating and cooling with a water supply temperature of around 22 °C. To analyze the energy performance of the system, a simulation-based research was conducted. The two-pipe system was modelled using the equation-based Modelica modeling language in Dymola. A typical office building model was considered as the case study. Simulations were run for two construction sets of the building envelope and two conditions related to inter-zone air flows. To calculate energy savings, a conventional four-pipe system was modelled and used formore » comparison. The conventional system presented two separated water loops for heating and cooling with supply temperatures of 45 °C and 14 °C, respectively. Simulation results showed that the two-pipe system was able to use less energy than the four-pipe system thanks to three effects: useful heat transfer from warm to cold zones, higher free cooling potential and higher efficiency of the heat pump. In particular, the two-pipe system used approximately between 12% and 18% less total annual primary energy than the four-pipe system, depending on the simulation case considered.« less

Energy saving potential of a two-pipe system for simultaneous heating and cooling of office buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maccarini, Alessandro; Wetter, Michael; Afshari, Alireza

This paper analyzes the performance of a novel two-pipe system that operates one water loop to simultaneously provide space heating and cooling with a water supply temperature of around 22 °C. To analyze the energy performance of the system, a simulation-based research was conducted. The two-pipe system was modelled using the equation-based Modelica modeling language in Dymola. A typical office building model was considered as the case study. Simulations were run for two construction sets of the building envelope and two conditions related to inter-zone air flows. To calculate energy savings, a conventional four-pipe system was modelled and used formore » comparison. The conventional system presented two separated water loops for heating and cooling with supply temperatures of 45 °C and 14 °C, respectively. Simulation results showed that the two-pipe system was able to use less energy than the four-pipe system thanks to three effects: useful heat transfer from warm to cold zones, higher free cooling potential and higher efficiency of the heat pump. In particular, the two-pipe system used approximately between 12% and 18% less total annual primary energy than the four-pipe system, depending on the simulation case considered.« less

Exploring the Dynamics and Modeling National Budget as a Supply Chain System: A Proposal for Reengineering the Budgeting Process and for Developing a Management Flight Simulator

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Elmendorf, D. W., & Gregory Mankiw , N. (1999). Government debt. Handbook of Macroeconomics , 1, 1615-1669. European Union. European financial stability...budget process, based on the supply chain demand management process principles of operations and it is introduced the idea of developing a Budget... principles of systems dynamics, a proposal for the development of a Budget Management Flight Simulator, that will operate as a learning and educational

Simulated effects of the 2003 permitted withdrawals and water-management alternatives on reservoir storage and firm yields of three surface-water supplies, Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.

2004-01-01

The Hydrologic Simulation ProgramFORTRAN (HSPF) model of the Ipswich River Basin previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was modified to evaluate the effects of the 2003 withdrawal permits and water-management alternatives on reservoir storage and yields of the Lynn, Peabody, and SalemBeverly water-supply systems. These systems obtain all or part of their water from the Ipswich River Basin. The HSPF model simulated the complex water budgets to the three supply systems, including effects of regulations that restrict withdrawals by the time of year, minimum streamflow thresholds, and the capacity of each system to pump water from the river. The 2003 permits restrict withdrawals from the Ipswich River between November 1 and May 31 to streamflows above a 1.0 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) threshold, to high flows between June 1 and October 31, and to a maximum annual volume. Yields and changes in reservoir storage over the 35-year simulation period (196195) were also evaluated for each system with a hypothetical low-capacity pump, alternative seasonal streamflow thresholds, and withdrawals that result in successive failures (depleted storage). The firm yields, the maximum yields that can be met during a severe drought, calculated for each water-supply system, under the 2003 permitted withdrawals, were 7.31 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for the Lynn, 3.01 Mgal/d for the Peabody, and 7.98 Mgal/d for the SalemBeverly systems; these yields are 31, 49, and 21 percent less than their average 19982000 demands, respectively. The simulations with the same permit restrictions and a hypothetical low-capacity pump for each system resulted in slightly increased yields for the Lynn and SalemBeverly systems, but a slightly decreased yield for the Peabody system. Simulations to evaluate the effects of alternative streamflow thresholds on water supply indicated that firm yields were generally about twice as sensitive to decreases in the NovemberFebruary or MarchMay thresholds than to increases in these thresholds. Firm yields were also generally slightly less sensitive to changes in the NovemberFebruary than to changes in the MarchMay thresholds in the Peabody and SalemBeverly water-supply systems. Decreases in the JuneOctober streamflow threshold did not affect any of the system's firm yield. Simulations of withdrawal rates that resulted in successive near failures during the 196195 period indicated the tradeoff between increased yield and risks. The Lynn and Peabody systems were allowed to near failure up to six times. At the sixth near failure, yields of these systems increased to 10.18 and 4.43 Mgal/d, respectively; these rates increased the amount of water obtained from the Ipswich River Basin (relative to the firm-yield rate), as a percentage of average 19982000 demands, from 68 to 96 percent and from 51 to 75 percent, respectively. The SalemBeverly system was able to meet demands after the third near failure. Reservoir storage was depleted about 6 percent of the time at the withdrawal rate that caused the sixth near failure in the Lynn and Peabody system and about 3 percent of the time at the withdrawal rate that caused the third near failure in the SalemBeverly system. Supply systems are at greatest risk of failure from persistent droughts (lasting more than 1 year), but short-term droughts also present risks during the fall and winter when the supply systems are most vulnerable. Uncertainties in model performance, simplification of reservoir systems and their management, and the possibility of droughts of severity greater than simulated in this investigation underscore the fact that the firm yield calculated for each system cannot be considered a withdrawal rate that is absolutely fail-safe. Thus, the consequences of failure are an important consideration in the planning and management of these systems.

Policy insights from the nutritional food market transformation model: the case of obesity prevention.

PubMed

Struben, Jeroen; Chan, Derek; Dubé, Laurette

2014-12-01

This paper presents a system dynamics policy model of nutritional food market transformation, tracing over-time interactions between the nutritional quality of supply, consumer food choice, population health, and governmental policy. Applied to the Canadian context and with body mass index as the primary outcome, we examine policy portfolios for obesity prevention, including (1) industry self-regulation efforts, (2) health- and nutrition-sensitive governmental policy, and (3) efforts to foster health- and nutrition-sensitive innovation. This work provides novel theoretical and practical insights on drivers of nutritional market transformations, highlighting the importance of integrative policy portfolios to simultaneously shift food demand and supply for successful and self-sustaining nutrition and health sensitivity. We discuss model extensions for deeper and more comprehensive linkages of nutritional food market transformation with supply, demand, and policy in agrifood and health/health care. These aim toward system design and policy that can proactively, and with greater impact, scale, and resilience, address single as well as double malnutrition in varying country settings. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

A Split-Path Schema-Based RFID Data Storage Model in Supply Chain Management

PubMed Central

Fan, Hua; Wu, Quanyuan; Lin, Yisong; Zhang, Jianfeng

2013-01-01

In modern supply chain management systems, Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) technology has become an indispensable sensor technology and massive RFID data sets are expected to become commonplace. More and more space and time are needed to store and process such huge amounts of RFID data, and there is an increasing realization that the existing approaches cannot satisfy the requirements of RFID data management. In this paper, we present a split-path schema-based RFID data storage model. With a data separation mechanism, the massive RFID data produced in supply chain management systems can be stored and processed more efficiently. Then a tree structure-based path splitting approach is proposed to intelligently and automatically split the movement paths of products. Furthermore, based on the proposed new storage model, we design the relational schema to store the path information and time information of tags, and some typical query templates and SQL statements are defined. Finally, we conduct various experiments to measure the effect and performance of our model and demonstrate that it performs significantly better than the baseline approach in both the data expression and path-oriented RFID data query performance. PMID:23645112

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

Drivers of Change in Managed Water Resources: Modeling the Impacts of Climate and Socioeconomic Changes Using the US Midwest as a Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

A global integrated assessment model including a water-demand model driven by socio-economics, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. The integrated modeling framework is applied to the U.S. Upper Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio) to advance understanding of the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on integrated water resources. Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Changes in water demand are driven bymore » socio-economic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices. The framework identifies the multiple spatial scales of interactions between the drivers of changes (natural flow and water demand) and the managed water resources (regulated flow, supply and supply deficit). The contribution of the different drivers of change are quantified regionally, and also evaluated locally, using covariances. The integrated framework shows that water supply deficit is more predictable over the Missouri than the other regions in the Midwest. The predictability of the supply deficit mostly comes from long term changes in water demand although changes in runoff has a greater contribution, comparable to the contribution of changes in demand, over shorter time periods. The integrated framework also shows that spatially, water demand drives local supply deficit. Using elasticity, the sensitivity of supply deficit to drivers of change is established. The supply deficit is found to be more sensitive to changes in runoff than to changes in demand regionally. It contrasts with the covariance analysis that shows that water demand is the dominant driver of supply deficit over the analysed periods. The elasticity indicates the level of mitigation needed to control the demand in order to reduce the vulnerability of the integrated system in future periods. The elasticity analyses also emphasize the need to address uncertainty with respect to changes in natural flow in integrated assessment.« less

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation expansion; and change in energy prices. Such risk-based analysis demonstrates relative reduction/increase of risk associated with management and policy decisions and allow decision makers to explore the relative importance of policy versus natural water supply change in a water resources system.

Effect of different methods of pulse width modulation on power losses in an induction motor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaev, Alexander; Fokin, Dmitrii; Shuharev, Sergey; Ten, Evgenii

2017-10-01

We consider the calculation of modulation power losses in a system “induction motor-inverter” for various pulse width modulation (PWM) methods of the supply voltage. Presented values of modulation power losses are the result of modeling a system “DC link - two-level three-phase voltage inverter - induction motor - load”. In this study the power losses in a system “induction motor - inverter” are computed, as well as losses caused by higher harmonics of PWM supply voltage, followed by definition of active power consumed by the DC link for a specified value mechanical power on the induction motor shaft. Mechanical power was determined by the rotation speed and the torque on the motor shaft in various quasi-sinusoidal supply voltage PWM modes. These calculations reveal the best coefficient of performance (COP) in a system of a variable frequency drive (VFD) with independent voltage inverter controlled by induction motor PWM.

Analysis of supply chain management of shallots in Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, M. C.; Supriana, T.

2018-02-01

Supply chain is important for business. One of supply chain that needs to be studied is the shallots supply chain. Medan have high demand while the supply of shallots is limited. This study aims to analyze the flow of shallots supply chain distribution in Medan. The method used was survey by using questionnaires to shallots producers, collecting traders, distributors, traders as well as government involved in shallots supply chain. Descriptive analysis was used to explain the shallots supply chain distribution flow. The results showed that there are two shallots supply chain model in Medan that was local shallots model and imported shallots model. Local shallots model could be distinguished based on three producer area, those were models of Medan Marelan, Samosir, and Simalungun. Medan Marelan and Simalungun models have seven supply chains, while the Samosir Model has eight supply chains. This condition indicates that the local shallots supply chain management in Medan was not efficient because of the length of the distribution channel. Supply chain imported shallots was more efficient because it had a shorter distribution flow with five supply chains.

Groundwater availability of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.; Kahle, S.C.; Ely, D.M.; Burns, E.R.; Snyder, D.T.; Haynes, J.V.; Olsen, T.D.; Welch, W.B.; Morgan, D.S.

2015-09-22

Changes in the system from predevelopment times. The model also is a useful tool for investigating water supply, water demand, management strategies, groundwater-surface water exchanges, and potential effects of changing climate on the hydrologic system.

Demonstration of a residential CHP system based on PEM fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigliucci, G.; Petruzzi, L.; Cerelli, E.; Garzisi, A.; La Mendola, A.

Fuel cell-based CHP systems are very attractive for stationary energy generation, since they allow production of electricity and heat in a decentralised, quiet, efficient and environmentally friendly way. As a means of evaluating this new technology, Enel Produzione installed a beta-version fuel cell CHP system, supplied by H-Power, at its experimental area sited in Livorno (Italy), and submitted it to a series of tests. The system is a co-generative unit, converting natural gas into electricity and heat: the former is delivered to local loads using electric load following capability; the latter is delivered to the experimental area hydraulic refrigeration circuit. Experiments were aimed at assessing the suitability of this kind of system to supply Italian residential customers. Factors such as performances, flexibility and operational requirements were evaluated under all the possible operating conditions, both under grid connected and stand alone configurations. At the same time, a mathematical model of the FC/CHP unit was developed to allow for the prediction of system performances and operating parameters under off-design conditions. This model can be used as an effective tool to optimise system operation when a particular customer has to be supplied. Results show that the prototype behaved as expected by a first "proof of concept" system and outline improvements to be achieved in order to satisfy the energy needs of small residential applications.

Model documentation, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System`s (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS). CMM provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal for NEMS. In general, the CDS integrates the supply inputs from the CPS to satisfy demands for coal from exogenous demand models. The internationalmore » area of the CDS forecasts annual world coal trade flows from major supply to major demand regions and provides annual forecasts of US coal exports for input to NEMS. Specifically, the CDS receives minemouth prices produced by the CPS, demand and other exogenous inputs from other NEMS components, and provides delivered coal prices and quantities to the NEMS economic sectors and regions.« less

Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yongxi

Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the potential risks caused by feedstock seasonality and demand uncertainty. Facility spatiality, time variation of feedstock yields, and demand uncertainty are integrated into a two-stage stochastic programming (SP) framework. In the study of Transitional Energy System Modeling under Uncertainty, a multistage stochastic dynamic programming is established to optimize the process of building and operating fuel production facilities during the transition. Dynamics due to the evolving technologies and societal changes and uncertainty due to demand fluctuations are the major issues to be addressed.

A CFD Study of Turbojet and Single-Throat Ramjet Ejector Interaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Ing; Hunter, Louis

1996-01-01

Supersonic ejector-diffuse systems have application in driving an advanced airbreathing propulsion system, consisting of turbojet engines acting as the primary and a single throat ramjet acting as the secondary. The turbojet engines are integrated into the single throat ramjet to minimize variable geometry and eliminate redundant propulsion components. The result is a simple, lightweight system that is operable from takeoff to high Mach numbers. At this high Mach number (approximately Mach 3.0), the turbojets are turned off and the high speed ramjet/scramjet take over and drive the vehicle to Mach 6.0. The turbojet-ejector-ramjet system consists of nonafterburning turbojet engines with ducting canted at 20 degrees to supply supersonic flow (downstream of CD nozzle) to the horizontal ramjet duct at a supply total pressure and temperature. Two conditions were modelled by a 2-D full Navier Stokes code at Mach 2.0. The code modelled the Fabri choke as well as the non-Fabri non critical case, using a computational throat to supply the back pressure. The results, which primarily predict the secondary mass flow rate and the mixed conditions at the ejector exit were in reasonable agreement with the 1-D cycle code (TBCC).

Cross-sectoral optimization and visualization of transformation processes in urban water infrastructures in rural areas.

PubMed

Baron, S; Kaufmann Alves, I; Schmitt, T G; Schöffel, S; Schwank, J

2015-01-01

Predicted demographic, climatic and socio-economic changes will require adaptations of existing water supply and wastewater disposal systems. Especially in rural areas, these new challenges will affect the functionality of the present systems. This paper presents a joint interdisciplinary research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimization and decision support system for the implementation of long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy. The concept of the decision support and optimization tool is described and visualization methods for the presentation of results are illustrated. The model is tested in a rural case study region in the Southwest of Germany. A transformation strategy for a decentralized wastewater treatment concept and its visualization are presented for a model village.

Forest biomass supply logistics for a power plant using the discrete-event simulation approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mobini, Mahdi; Sowlati, T.; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine

This study investigates the logistics of supplying forest biomass to a potential power plant. Due to the complexities in such a supply logistics system, a simulation model based on the framework of Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) is developed in this study to evaluate the cost of delivered forest biomass, the equilibrium moisture content, and carbon emissions from the logistics operations. The model is applied to a proposed case of 300 MW power plant in Quesnel, BC, Canada. The results show that the biomass demand of the power plant would not be met every year. The weighted averagemore » cost of delivered biomass to the gate of the power plant is about C$ 90 per dry tonne. Estimates of equilibrium moisture content of delivered biomass and CO2 emissions resulted from the processes are also provided.« less

Beef Species Symposium: an assessment of the 1996 Beef NRC: metabolizable protein supply and demand and effectiveness of model performance prediction of beef females within extensive grazing systems.

PubMed

Waterman, R C; Caton, J S; Löest, C A; Petersen, M K; Roberts, A J

2014-07-01

Interannual variation of forage quantity and quality driven by precipitation events influence beef livestock production systems within the Southern and Northern Plains and Pacific West, which combined represent 60% (approximately 17.5 million) of the total beef cows in the United States. The beef cattle requirements published by the NRC are an important tool and excellent resource for both professionals and producers to use when implementing feeding practices and nutritional programs within the various production systems. The objectives of this paper include evaluation of the 1996 Beef NRC model in terms of effectiveness in predicting extensive range beef cow performance within arid and semiarid environments using available data sets, identifying model inefficiencies that could be refined to improve the precision of predicting protein supply and demand for range beef cows, and last, providing recommendations for future areas of research. An important addition to the current Beef NRC model would be to allow users to provide region-specific forage characteristics and the ability to describe supplement composition, amount, and delivery frequency. Beef NRC models would then need to be modified to account for the N recycling that occurs throughout a supplementation interval and the impact that this would have on microbial efficiency and microbial protein supply. The Beef NRC should also consider the role of ruminal and postruminal supply and demand of specific limiting AA. Additional considerations should include the partitioning effects of nitrogenous compounds under different physiological production stages (e.g., lactation, pregnancy, and periods of BW loss). The intent of information provided is to aid revision of the Beef NRC by providing supporting material for changes and identifying gaps in existing scientific literature where future research is needed to enhance the predictive precision and application of the Beef NRC models.

Autonomous Decentralized Control of Supply and Demand by Inverter Based Distributed Generations in Isolated Microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiki, Akira; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Baba, Jyunpei; Takano, Tomihiro; Gouda, Takahiro; Izui, Yoshio

Recently, because of the environmental burden mitigation, energy conservations, energy security, and cost reductions, distributed generations are attracting our strong attention. These distributed generations (DGs) have been already installed to the distribution system, and much more DGs will be expected to be connected in the future. On the other hand, a new concept called “Microgrid” which is a small power supply network consisting of only DGs was proposed and some prototype projects are ongoing in Japan. The purpose of this paper is to develop the three-phase instantaneous valued digital simulator of microgrid consisting of a lot of inverter based DGs and to develop a supply and demand control method in isolated microgrid. First, microgrid is modeled using MATLAB/SIMULINK. We develop models of three-phase instantaneous valued inverter type CVCF generator, PQ specified generator, PV specified generator, PQ specified load as storage battery, photovoltaic generation, fuel cell and inverter load respectively. Then we propose an autonomous decentralized control method of supply and demand in isolated microgrid where storage batteries, fuel cells, photovoltaic generations and loads are connected. It is proposed here that the system frequency is used as a means to control DG output. By changing the frequency of the storage battery due to unbalance of supply and demand, all inverter based DGs detect the frequency fluctuation and change their own outputs. Finally, a new frequency control method in autonomous decentralized control of supply and demand is proposed. Though the frequency is used to transmit the information on the supply and demand unbalance to DGs, after the frequency plays the role, the frequency finally has to return to a standard value. To return the frequency to the standard value, the characteristic curve of the fuel cell is shifted in parallel. This control is carried out corresponding to the fluctuation of the load. The simulation shows that the frequency can be controlled well and has been made clear the effectiveness of the frequency control system.

Applications products of aviation forecast models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garthner, John P.

1988-01-01

A service called the Optimum Path Aircraft Routing System (OPARS) supplies products based on output data from the Naval Oceanographic Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), a model run on a Cyber-205 computer. Temperatures and winds are extracted from the surface to 100 mb, approximately 55,000 ft. Forecast winds are available in six-hour time steps.

Software Supply Chain Risk Management: From Products to Systems of Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

an n 2009 Graw er the , has linked on, the Maturity e authors l services o agreed icrosoft, gie CMU/SEI-2010-TN-026 | 12 Model...threat modeling is a part of Microsoft’s SDL [Howard 2006, Swiderski 2004]. Stephen Lipner has designated it as the most important part of the

Evaluation of Supply Chain Management Systems Used in Civil Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczak, Michał; Rzepecki, Łukasz

2017-10-01

One of the most important factors which have an effect on the cost and time of the building process is the organization of physical resources and the information flow structure. Depending on how effective this system is, a building project may end with a success or a failure. Because of many conditions of the construction executing and different needs of the contractors, there are different Supply Chain Management (SCM) systems connected with supplying construction projects: single-stage, multi-stage or combined. The article presents a comparative analysis of construction SCM systems based on a modified fuzzy AHP. The modification of this method is based on the use of interval type-2 fuzzy sets to aggregate evaluation according to the idea proposed by Mikhailov. The use of such a model of group preferences of decision-makers, makes it possible to take into consideration both the linguistic imprecision of an evaluation and the small number of experts. The weight values of specific criteria and the final scale vector of considered variants are obtained during the analysis. This may give a recommendation to general contractors in construction projects about which evaluation criteria and supply systems are preferred.

Metaheuristic simulation optimisation for the stochastic multi-retailer supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, Marina; Mustaffa, Noorfa Haszlinna H.; Othman, Siti Norsyahida

2013-04-01

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is an important activity in all producing facilities and in many organizations to enable vendors, manufacturers and suppliers to interact gainfully and plan optimally their flow of goods and services. A simulation optimization approach has been widely used in research nowadays on finding the best solution for decision-making process in Supply Chain Management (SCM) that generally faced a complexity with large sources of uncertainty and various decision factors. Metahueristic method is the most popular simulation optimization approach. However, very few researches have applied this approach in optimizing the simulation model for supply chains. Thus, this paper interested in evaluating the performance of metahueristic method for stochastic supply chains in determining the best flexible inventory replenishment parameters that minimize the total operating cost. The simulation optimization model is proposed based on the Bees algorithm (BA) which has been widely applied in engineering application such as training neural networks for pattern recognition. BA is a new member of meta-heuristics. BA tries to model natural behavior of honey bees in food foraging. Honey bees use several mechanisms like waggle dance to optimally locate food sources and to search new ones. This makes them a good candidate for developing new algorithms for solving optimization problems. This model considers an outbound centralised distribution system consisting of one supplier and 3 identical retailers and is assumed to be independent and identically distributed with unlimited supply capacity at supplier.

Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Subnational mobility and consumption-based environmental accounting of US corn in animal protein and ethanol supply chains

PubMed Central

Smith, Timothy M.; Kim, Taegon; Pelton, Rylie E. O.; Suh, Kyo; Schmitt, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Corn production, and its associated inputs, is a relatively large source of greenhouse gas emissions and uses significant amounts of water and land, thus contributing to climate change, fossil fuel depletion, local air pollutants, and local water scarcity. As large consumers of this corn, corporations in the ethanol and animal protein industries are increasingly assessing and reporting sustainability impacts across their supply chains to identify, prioritize, and communicate sustainability risks and opportunities material to their operations. In doing so, many have discovered that the direct impacts of their owned operations are dwarfed by those upstream in the supply chain, requiring transparency and knowledge about environmental impacts along the supply chains. Life cycle assessments (LCAs) have been used to identify hotspots of environmental impacts at national levels, yet these provide little subnational information necessary for guiding firms’ specific supply networks. In this paper, our Food System Supply-Chain Sustainability (FoodS3) model connects spatial, firm-specific demand of corn purchasers with upstream corn production in the United States through a cost minimization transport model. This provides a means to link county-level corn production in the United States to firm-specific demand locations associated with downstream processing facilities. Our model substantially improves current LCA assessment efforts that are confined to broad national or state level impacts. In drilling down to subnational levels of environmental impacts that occur over heterogeneous areas and aggregating these landscape impacts by specific supply networks, targeted opportunities for improvements to the sustainability performance of supply chains are identified. PMID:28874548

Subnational mobility and consumption-based environmental accounting of US corn in animal protein and ethanol supply chains.

PubMed

Smith, Timothy M; Goodkind, Andrew L; Kim, Taegon; Pelton, Rylie E O; Suh, Kyo; Schmitt, Jennifer

2017-09-19

Corn production, and its associated inputs, is a relatively large source of greenhouse gas emissions and uses significant amounts of water and land, thus contributing to climate change, fossil fuel depletion, local air pollutants, and local water scarcity. As large consumers of this corn, corporations in the ethanol and animal protein industries are increasingly assessing and reporting sustainability impacts across their supply chains to identify, prioritize, and communicate sustainability risks and opportunities material to their operations. In doing so, many have discovered that the direct impacts of their owned operations are dwarfed by those upstream in the supply chain, requiring transparency and knowledge about environmental impacts along the supply chains. Life cycle assessments (LCAs) have been used to identify hotspots of environmental impacts at national levels, yet these provide little subnational information necessary for guiding firms' specific supply networks. In this paper, our Food System Supply-Chain Sustainability (FoodS 3 ) model connects spatial, firm-specific demand of corn purchasers with upstream corn production in the United States through a cost minimization transport model. This provides a means to link county-level corn production in the United States to firm-specific demand locations associated with downstream processing facilities. Our model substantially improves current LCA assessment efforts that are confined to broad national or state level impacts. In drilling down to subnational levels of environmental impacts that occur over heterogeneous areas and aggregating these landscape impacts by specific supply networks, targeted opportunities for improvements to the sustainability performance of supply chains are identified.

Improving the Performance of Highly Constrained Water Resource Systems using Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms and RiverWare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Zagona, E. A.

2015-12-01

Instead of building new infrastructure to increase their supply reliability, water resource managers are often tasked with better management of current systems. The managers often have existing simulation models that aid their planning, and lack methods for efficiently generating and evaluating planning alternatives. This presentation discusses how multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) decision support can be used with the sophisticated water infrastructure model, RiverWare, in highly constrained water planning environments. We first discuss a study that performed a many-objective tradeoff analysis of water supply in the Tarrant Regional Water District (TRWD) in Texas. RiverWare is combined with the Borg MOEA to solve a seven objective problem that includes systemwide performance objectives and individual reservoir storage reliability. Decisions within the formulation balance supply in multiple reservoirs and control pumping between the eastern and western parts of the system. The RiverWare simulation model is forced by two stochastic hydrology scenarios to inform how management changes in wet versus dry conditions. The second part of the presentation suggests how a broader set of RiverWare-MOEA studies can inform tradeoffs in other systems, especially in political situations where multiple actors are in conflict over finite water resources. By incorporating quantitative representations of diverse parties' objectives during the search for solutions, MOEAs may provide support for negotiations and lead to more widely beneficial water management outcomes.

24 CFR 3285.604 - Drainage system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Drainage system. 3285.604 Section... DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Ductwork and Plumbing and Fuel Supply Systems § 3285.604 Drainage system. (a) Crossovers. Multi-section homes with plumbing in more than one section...

24 CFR 3285.604 - Drainage system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Drainage system. 3285.604 Section... DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Ductwork and Plumbing and Fuel Supply Systems § 3285.604 Drainage system. (a) Crossovers. Multi-section homes with plumbing in more than one section...

A spatially explicit whole-system model of the lignocellulosic bioethanol supply chain: an assessment of decentralised processing potential

PubMed Central

Dunnett, Alex J; Adjiman, Claire S; Shah, Nilay

2008-01-01

Background Lignocellulosic bioethanol technologies exhibit significant capacity for performance improvement across the supply chain through the development of high-yielding energy crops, integrated pretreatment, hydrolysis and fermentation technologies and the application of dedicated ethanol pipelines. The impact of such developments on cost-optimal plant location, scale and process composition within multiple plant infrastructures is poorly understood. A combined production and logistics model has been developed to investigate cost-optimal system configurations for a range of technological, system scale, biomass supply and ethanol demand distribution scenarios specific to European agricultural land and population densities. Results Ethanol production costs for current technologies decrease significantly from $0.71 to $0.58 per litre with increasing economies of scale, up to a maximum single-plant capacity of 550 × 106 l year-1. The development of high-yielding energy crops and consolidated bio-processing realises significant cost reductions, with production costs ranging from $0.33 to $0.36 per litre. Increased feedstock yields result in systems of eight fully integrated plants operating within a 500 × 500 km2 region, each producing between 1.24 and 2.38 × 109 l year-1 of pure ethanol. A limited potential for distributed processing and centralised purification systems is identified, requiring developments in modular, ambient pretreatment and fermentation technologies and the pipeline transport of pure ethanol. Conclusion The conceptual and mathematical modelling framework developed provides a valuable tool for the assessment and optimisation of the lignocellulosic bioethanol supply chain. In particular, it can provide insight into the optimal configuration of multiple plant systems. This information is invaluable in ensuring (near-)cost-optimal strategic development within the sector at the regional and national scale. The framework is flexible and can thus accommodate a range of processing tasks, logistical modes, by-product markets and impacting policy constraints. Significant scope for application to real-world case studies through dynamic extensions of the formulation has been identified. PMID:18662392

A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

2011-12-01

Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used with existing or proposed operating rules to explore the range of potential climate impacts on lake levels, drought trigger frequency, hydropower generation, and low-flow statistics. Initial system implementation of the Climate Change DSS was focused in the State of Colorado working with water supply agencies in the Front Range to assess local water supply vulnerability to climate change. To facilitate national implementation, the system capitalizes on National Weather Service (NWS) watershed models currently used for operational river forecasting. These models are well calibrated and available for the entire country. The system has been extended to include the ACF and the Sacramento River basins because of the importance of the water resources in these basins. Plans are now being made to expand coverage to include the Baltimore-Washington, D.C. water supply area. The DSS is operational and publicly available (www.climatechangedss.com).

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

K. Averyt; J. Meldrum; P. Caldwell; G. Sun; S. McNulty; A. Huber-Lee; N. Madden

2013-01-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model...

Drought and Water Supply. Implications of the Massachusetts Experience for Municipal Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Clifford S.; And Others

This book uses the 1962-66 Massachusetts drought data as a base of information to build a planning model of water resources that is of interest to students and professionals involved with water management. Using a demand-supply ratio to measure the relative inadequacy of a given water system, the authors then project demand into the drought period…

A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

Modeling and Optimization of Recycled Water Systems to Augment Urban Groundwater Recharge through Underutilized Stormwater Spreading Basins.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Jonathan L; Luthy, Richard G

2017-10-17

Infrastructure systems that use stormwater and recycled water to augment groundwater recharge through spreading basins represent cost-effective opportunities to diversify urban water supplies. However, technical questions remain about how these types of managed aquifer recharge systems should be designed; furthermore, existing planning tools are insufficient for performing robust design comparisons. Addressing this need, we present a model for identifying the best-case design and operation schedule for systems that deliver recycled water to underutilized stormwater spreading basins. Resulting systems are optimal with respect to life cycle costs and water deliveries. Through a case study of Los Angeles, California, we illustrate how delivering recycled water to spreading basins could be optimally implemented. Results illustrate trade-offs between centralized and decentralized configurations. For example, while a centralized Hyperion system could deliver more recycled water to the Hansen Spreading Grounds, this system incurs approximately twice the conveyance cost of a decentralized Tillman system (mean of 44% vs 22% of unit life cycle costs). Compared to existing methods, our model allows for more comprehensive and precise analyses of cost, water volume, and energy trade-offs among different design scenarios. This model can inform decisions about spreading basin operation policies and the development of new water supplies.

Designing Systems for Environmental Sustainability

EPA Science Inventory

Dr. Smith will describe his U.S. EPA research which involves elements of design, from systems as diverse as biofuel supply chains to recycling systems and chemical processes. Design uses models that rate performance as part of a synthesis approach, where steps of analysis and sy...

Reducing stock-outs of essential tuberculosis medicines: a system dynamics modelling approach to supply chain management.

PubMed

Bam, L; McLaren, Z M; Coetzee, E; von Leipzig, K H

2017-10-01

The under-performance of supply chains presents a significant hindrance to disease control in developing countries. Stock-outs of essential medicines lead to treatment interruption which can force changes in patient drug regimens, drive drug resistance and increase mortality. This study is one of few to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of supply chain policies in reducing shortages and costs. This study develops a systems dynamics simulation model of the downstream supply chain for amikacin, a second-line tuberculosis drug using 10 years of South African data. We evaluate current supply chain performance in terms of reliability, responsiveness and agility, following the widely-used Supply Chain Operation Reference framework. We simulate 141 scenarios that represent different combinations of supplier characteristics, inventory management strategies and demand forecasting methods to identify the Pareto optimal set of management policies that jointly minimize the number of shortages and total cost. Despite long supplier lead times and unpredictable demand, the amikacin supply chain is 98% reliable and agile enough to accommodate a 20% increase in demand without a shortage. However, this is accomplished by overstocking amikacin by 167%, which incurs high holding costs. The responsiveness of suppliers is low: only 57% of orders are delivered to the central provincial drug depot within one month. We identify three Pareto optimal safety stock management policies. Short supplier lead time can produce Pareto optimal outcomes even in the absence of other optimal policies. This study produces concrete, actionable guidelines to cost-effectively reduce stock-outs by implementing optimal supply chain policies. Preferentially selecting drug suppliers with short lead times accommodates unexpected changes in demand. Optimal supply chain management should be an essential component of national policy to reduce the mortality rate. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Adjustment of the San Francisco estuary and watershed to decreasing sediment supply in the 20th century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoellhamer, David H.; Wright, Scott A.; Drexler, Judith Z.

2013-01-01

The general progression of human land use is an initial disturbance (e.g., deforestation, mining, agricultural expansion, overgrazing, and urbanization) that creates a sediment pulse to an estuary followed by dams that reduce sediment supply. We present a conceptual model of the effects of increasing followed by decreasing sediment supply that includes four sequential regimes, which propagate downstream: a stationary natural regime, transient increasing sediment supply, transient decreasing sediment supply, and a stationary altered regime. The model features characteristic lines that separate the four regimes. Previous studies of the San Francisco Estuary and watershed are synthesized in the context of this conceptual model. Hydraulic mining for gold in the watershed increased sediment supply to the estuary in the late 1800s. Adjustment to decreasing sediment supply began in the watershed and upper estuary around 1900 and in the lower estuary in the 1950s. Large freshwater flow in the late 1990s caused a step adjustment throughout the estuary and watershed. It is likely that the estuary and watershed are still capable of adjusting but further adjustment will be as steps that occur only during greater floods than previously experienced during the adjustment period. Humans are actively managing the system to try to prevent greater floods. If this hypothesis of step changes occurring for larger flows is true, then the return interval of step changes will increase or, if humans successfully control floods in perpetuity, there will be no more step changes.

Computerized power supply analysis: State equation generation and terminal models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrett, S. J.

1978-01-01

To aid engineers that design power supply systems two analysis tools that can be used with the state equation analysis package were developed. These tools include integration routines that start with the description of a power supply in state equation form and yield analytical results. The first tool uses a computer program that works with the SUPER SCEPTRE circuit analysis program and prints the state equation for an electrical network. The state equations developed automatically by the computer program are used to develop an algorithm for reducing the number of state variables required to describe an electrical network. In this way a second tool is obtained in which the order of the network is reduced and a simpler terminal model is obtained.

Pressure-Volume-Temperature (PVT) Gauging of an Isothermal Cryogenic Propellant Tank Pressurized with Gaseous Helium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanDresar, Neil T.; Zimmerli, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Results are presented for pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) gauging of a liquid oxygen/liquid nitrogen tank pressurized with gaseous helium that was supplied by a high-pressure cryogenic tank simulating a cold helium supply bottle on a spacecraft. The fluid inside the test tank was kept isothermal by frequent operation of a liquid circulation pump and spray system, and the propellant tank was suspended from load cells to obtain a high-accuracy reference standard for the gauging measurements. Liquid quantity gauging errors of less than 2 percent of the tank volume were obtained when quasi-steady-state conditions existed in the propellant and helium supply tanks. Accurate gauging required careful attention to, and corrections for, second-order effects of helium solubility in the liquid propellant plus differences in the propellant/helium composition and temperature in the various plumbing lines attached to the tanks. On the basis of results from a helium solubility test, a model was developed to predict the amount of helium dissolved in the liquid as a function of cumulative pump operation time. Use of this model allowed correction of the basic PVT gauging calculations and attainment of the reported gauging accuracy. This helium solubility model is system specific, but it may be adaptable to other hardware systems.

Designing a mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalaei, Amin; Davoudpour, Hamid

2012-11-01

This article presents designing a new mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system with an extensive coverage of important manufacturing features consideration of multiple plants location, multi-markets allocation, multi-period planning horizons with demand and part mix variation, machine capacity, and the main constraints are demand of markets satisfaction in each period, machine availability, machine time-capacity, worker assignment, available time of worker, production volume for each plant and the amounts allocated to each market. The aim of the proposed model is to minimize holding and outsourcing costs, inter-cell material handling cost, external transportation cost, procurement & maintenance and overhead cost of machines, setup cost, reconfiguration cost of machines installation and removal, hiring, firing and salary worker costs. Aimed to prove the potential benefits of such a design, presented an example is shown using a proposed model.

Dynamic Impact of Online Word-of-Mouth and Advertising on Supply Chain Performance.

PubMed

Feng, Jian; Liu, Bin

2018-01-04

Cooperative (co-op) advertising investments benefit brand goodwill and further improve supply chain performance. Meanwhile, online word-of-mouth (OWOM) can also play an important role in supply chain performance. On the basis of co-op advertising, this paper considers a single supply chain structure led by a manufacturer and examines a fundamental issue concerning the impact of OWOM on supply chain performance. Firstly, by the method of differential game, this paper analyzes the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance (i.e., brand goodwill, sales, and profits) under three different supply chain decisions (i.e., only advertising, and manufacturers with and without sharing cost of OWOM with retailers). We compare and analyze the optimal strategies of advertising and OWOM under the above different supply chain decisions. Secondly, the system dynamics model is established to reflect the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance. Finally, three supply chain decisions under two scenarios, strong brand and weak brand, are analyzed through the system dynamics simulation. The results show that the input of OWOM can enhance brand goodwill and improve earnings. It further promotes the OWOM reputation and improves the supply chain performance if manufacturers share the cost of OWOM with retailers. Then, in order to eliminate the retailers from word-of-mouth fraud and establish a fair competition mechanism, the third parties (i.e., regulators or e-commerce platforms) should take appropriate punitive measures against retailers. Furthermore, the effect of OWOM on supply chain performance under a strong brand differed from those under a weak brand. Last but not least, if OWOM is improved, there would be more remarkable performance for the weak brand than that for the strong brand in the supply chain.

Dynamic Impact of Online Word-of-Mouth and Advertising on Supply Chain Performance

PubMed Central

Feng, Jian

2018-01-01

Cooperative (co-op) advertising investments benefit brand goodwill and further improve supply chain performance. Meanwhile, online word-of-mouth (OWOM) can also play an important role in supply chain performance. On the basis of co-op advertising, this paper considers a single supply chain structure led by a manufacturer and examines a fundamental issue concerning the impact of OWOM on supply chain performance. Firstly, by the method of differential game, this paper analyzes the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance (i.e., brand goodwill, sales, and profits) under three different supply chain decisions (i.e., only advertising, and manufacturers with and without sharing cost of OWOM with retailers). We compare and analyze the optimal strategies of advertising and OWOM under the above different supply chain decisions. Secondly, the system dynamics model is established to reflect the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance. Finally, three supply chain decisions under two scenarios, strong brand and weak brand, are analyzed through the system dynamics simulation. The results show that the input of OWOM can enhance brand goodwill and improve earnings. It further promotes the OWOM reputation and improves the supply chain performance if manufacturers share the cost of OWOM with retailers. Then, in order to eliminate the retailers from word-of-mouth fraud and establish a fair competition mechanism, the third parties (i.e., regulators or e-commerce platforms) should take appropriate punitive measures against retailers. Furthermore, the effect of OWOM on supply chain performance under a strong brand differed from those under a weak brand. Last but not least, if OWOM is improved, there would be more remarkable performance for the weak brand than that for the strong brand in the supply chain. PMID:29300361

Simulation-optimization aids in resolving water conflict: Temecula Basin, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Lear, Jonathan

2014-01-01

The productive agricultural areas of Pajaro Valley, California have exclusively relied on ground water from coastal aquifers in central Monterey Bay. As part of the Basin Management Plan (BMP), the Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency (PVWMA) is developing additional local supplies to replace coastal pumpage, which is causing seawater intrusion. The BMP includes an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) system, which captures and stores local winter runoff, and supplies it to growers later in the growing season in lieu of ground-water pumpage. A Coastal Distribution System (CDS) distributes water from the ASR and other supplemental sources. A detailed model of the Pajaro Valley is being used to simulate the coupled supply and demand components of irrigated agriculture from 1963 to 2006. Recent upgrades to the Farm Process in MODFLOW (MF2K-FMP) allow simulating the effects of ASR deliveries and reduced pumping for farms in subregions connected to the CDS. The BMP includes a hierarchy of monthly supply alternatives, including a recovery well field around the ASR system, a supplemental wellfield, and onsite farm supply wells. The hierarchy of delivery requirements is used by MF2K-FMP to estimate the effects of these deliveries on coastal ground-water pumpage and recovery of water levels. This integrated approach can be used to assess the effectiveness of the BMP under variable climatic conditions, and to test the impacts of more complete subscription by coastal farmers to the CDS deliveries. The model will help managers assess the effects of new BMP components to further reduce pumpage and seawater intrusion.

Examining the influence of family physician supply on district health system performance in South Africa: An ecological analysis of key health indicators.

PubMed

Von Pressentin, Klaus B; Mash, Bob J; Esterhuizen, Tonya M

2017-04-28

The supply of appropriate health workers is a key building block in the World Health Organization's model of effective health systems. Primary care teams are stronger if they contain doctors with postgraduate training in family medicine. The contribution of such family physicians to the performance of primary care systems has not been evaluated in the African context. Family physicians with postgraduate training entered the South African district health system (DHS) from 2011. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of family physicians within the DHS of South Africa. The objectives were to evaluate the impact of an increase in family physician supply in each district (number per 10 000 population) on key health indicators. All 52 South African health districts were included as units of analysis. An ecological study evaluated the correlations between the supply of family physicians and routinely collected data on district performance for two time periods: 2010/2011 and 2014/2015. Five years after the introduction of the new generation of family physicians, this study showed no demonstrable correlation between family physician supply and improved health indicators from the macro-perspective of the district. The lack of a measurable impact at the level of the district is most likely because of the very low supply of family physicians in the public sector. Studies which evaluate impact closer to the family physician's circle of control may be better positioned to demonstrate a measurable impact in the short term.

Optimality of cycle time and inventory decisions in a two echelon inventory system with exponential price dependent demand under credit period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krugon, Seelam; Nagaraju, Dega

2017-05-01

This work describes and proposes an two echelon inventory system under supply chain, where the manufacturer offers credit period to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The model is framed as demand is expressed as exponential function of retailer’s unit selling price. Mathematical model is framed to demonstrate the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. The major objective of the paper is to provide trade credit concept from the manufacturer to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The retailer would like to delay the payments of the manufacturer. At the first stage retailer and manufacturer expressions are expressed with the functions of ordering cost, carrying cost, transportation cost. In second stage combining of the manufacturer and retailer expressions are expressed. A MATLAB program is written to derive the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. From the optimality criteria derived managerial insights can be made. From the research findings, it is evident that the total cost of the supply chain is decreased with the increase in credit period under exponential price dependent demand. To analyse the influence of the model parameters, parametric analysis is also done by taking with help of numerical example.

Challenges of including nitrogen effects on decomposition in earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbie, S. E.

2011-12-01

Despite the importance of litter decomposition for ecosystem fertility and carbon balance, key uncertainties remain about how this fundamental process is affected by nitrogen (N) availability. Nevertheless, resolving such uncertainties is critical for mechanistic inclusion of such processes in earth system models, towards predicting the ecosystem consequences of increased anthropogenic reactive N. Towards that end, we have conducted a series of experiments examining nitrogen effects on litter decomposition. We found that both substrate N and externally supplied N (regardless of form) accelerated the initial decomposition rate. Faster initial decomposition rates were linked to the higher activity of carbohydrate-degrading enzymes associated with externally supplied N and the greater relative abundances of Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria associated with green leaves and externally supplied organic N (assessed using phospholipid fatty acid analysis, PLFA). By contrast, later in decomposition, externally supplied N slowed decomposition, increasing the fraction of slowly decomposing litter and reducing lignin-degrading enzyme activity and relative abundances of Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria. Our results suggest that elevated atmospheric N deposition may have contrasting effects on the dynamics of different soil carbon pools, decreasing mean residence times of active fractions comprising very fresh litter, while increasing those of more slowly decomposing fractions including more processed litter. Incorporating these contrasting effects of N on decomposition processes into models is complicated by lingering uncertainties about how these effects generalize across ecosystems and substrates.

Development of underwater cutting system by abrasive water-jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demura, Kenji; Yamaguchi, Hitoshi

1993-09-01

The technology to cut objects in the ocean's depths with abrasive water jets was examined for possible application in view of the greater water depths and sophistication involved in work on the ocean floor today. A test model was developed to study this technology's safety and practicability. The test model was designed for use at great water depths and has functions and a configuration that are unlike equipment used on land. A continuous, stable supply of abrasive is a distinctive design feature. In land applications, there had been problems with plugged tubes and an uneven supply. For this reason, the abrasive was converted to slurry form, and a continuous pressurized tube pump system was adopted for supply to the nozzle head. Also, a hydraulic motor that does not employ oil or electric power was used to provide an underwater drive that is environment-friendly. The report outlines the technology's general design concept including its distinctive functions and its configuration for use at great depths, and the report provides great detail on the equipment.

World energy projection system: Model documentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

Configuration complexity assessment of convergent supply chain systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modrak, Vladimir; Marton, David

2014-07-01

System designers usually generate alternative configurations of supply chains (SCs) by varying especially fixed assets to satisfy a desired production scope and rate. Such alternatives often vary in associated costs and other facets including degrees of complexity. Hence, a measure of configuration complexity can be a tool for comparison and decision-making. This paper presents three approaches to assessment of configuration complexity and their applications to designing convergent SC systems. Presented approaches are conceptually distinct ways of measuring structural complexity parameters based on different preconditions and circumstances of assembly systems which are typical representatives of convergent SCs. There are applied two similar approaches based on different preconditions that are related to demand shares. Third approach does not consider any special condition relating to character of final product demand. Subsequently, we propose a framework for modeling of assembly SC models, which are dividing to classes.

Analytical scaling relations to evaluate leakage and intrusion in intermittent water supply systems.

PubMed

Taylor, David D J; Slocum, Alexander H; Whittle, Andrew J

2018-01-01

Intermittent water supplies (IWS) deliver piped water to one billion people; this water is often microbially contaminated. Contaminants that accumulate while IWS are depressurized are flushed into customers' homes when these systems become pressurized. In addition, during the steady-state phase of IWS, contaminants from higher-pressure sources (e.g., sewers) may continue to intrude where pipe pressure is low. To guide the operation and improvement of IWS, this paper proposes an analytic model relating supply pressure, supply duration, leakage, and the volume of intruded, potentially-contaminated, fluids present during flushing and steady-state. The proposed model suggests that increasing the supply duration may improve water quality during the flushing phase, but decrease the subsequent steady-state water quality. As such, regulators and academics should take more care in reporting if water quality samples are taken during flushing or steady-state operational conditions. Pipe leakage increases with increased supply pressure and/or duration. We propose using an equivalent orifice area (EOA) to quantify pipe quality. This provides a more stable metric for regulators and utilities tracking pipe repairs. Finally, we show that the volume of intruded fluid decreases in proportion to reductions in EOA. The proposed relationships are applied to self-reported performance indicators for IWS serving 108 million people described in the IBNET database and in the Benchmarking and Data Book of Water Utilities in India. This application shows that current high-pressure, continuous water supply targets will require extensive EOA reductions. For example, in order to achieve national targets, utilities in India will need to reduce their EOA by a median of at least 90%.

Analytical scaling relations to evaluate leakage and intrusion in intermittent water supply systems

PubMed Central

Slocum, Alexander H.; Whittle, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

Intermittent water supplies (IWS) deliver piped water to one billion people; this water is often microbially contaminated. Contaminants that accumulate while IWS are depressurized are flushed into customers’ homes when these systems become pressurized. In addition, during the steady-state phase of IWS, contaminants from higher-pressure sources (e.g., sewers) may continue to intrude where pipe pressure is low. To guide the operation and improvement of IWS, this paper proposes an analytic model relating supply pressure, supply duration, leakage, and the volume of intruded, potentially-contaminated, fluids present during flushing and steady-state. The proposed model suggests that increasing the supply duration may improve water quality during the flushing phase, but decrease the subsequent steady-state water quality. As such, regulators and academics should take more care in reporting if water quality samples are taken during flushing or steady-state operational conditions. Pipe leakage increases with increased supply pressure and/or duration. We propose using an equivalent orifice area (EOA) to quantify pipe quality. This provides a more stable metric for regulators and utilities tracking pipe repairs. Finally, we show that the volume of intruded fluid decreases in proportion to reductions in EOA. The proposed relationships are applied to self-reported performance indicators for IWS serving 108 million people described in the IBNET database and in the Benchmarking and Data Book of Water Utilities in India. This application shows that current high-pressure, continuous water supply targets will require extensive EOA reductions. For example, in order to achieve national targets, utilities in India will need to reduce their EOA by a median of at least 90%. PMID:29775462

Simulations of groundwater flow, transport, and age in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for a study of transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants (TANC) to public-supply wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heywood, Charles E.

2013-01-01

Vulnerability to contamination from manmade and natural sources can be characterized by the groundwater-age distribution measured in a supply well and the associated implications for the source depths of the withdrawn water. Coupled groundwater flow and transport models were developed to simulate the transport of the geochemical age-tracers carbon-14, tritium, and three chlorofluorocarbon species to public-supply wells in Albuquerque, New Mexico. A separate, regional-scale simulation of transport of carbon-14 that used the flow-field computed by a previously documented regional groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to specify the initial concentrations of carbon-14 in the local-scale transport model. Observations of the concentrations of each of the five chemical species, in addition to water-level observations and measurements of intra-borehole flow within a public-supply well, were used to calibrate parameters of the local-scale groundwater flow and transport models. The calibrated groundwater flow model simulates the mixing of “young” groundwater, which entered the groundwater flow system after 1950 as recharge at the water table, with older resident groundwater that is more likely associated with natural contaminants. Complexity of the aquifer system in the zone of transport between the water table and public-supply well screens was simulated with a geostatistically generated stratigraphic realization based upon observed lithologic transitions at borehole control locations. Because effective porosity was simulated as spatially uniform, the simulated age tracers are more efficiently transported through the portions of the simulated aquifer with relatively higher simulated hydraulic conductivity. Non-pumping groundwater wells with long screens that connect aquifer intervals having different hydraulic heads can provide alternate pathways for contaminant transport that are faster than the advective transport through the aquifer material. Simulation of flow and transport through these wells requires time discretization that adequately represents periods of pumping and non-pumping. The effects of intra-borehole flow are not fully represented in the simulation because it employs seasonal stress periods, which are longer than periods of pumping and non-pumping. Further simulations utilizing daily pumpage data and model stress periods may help quantify the relative effects of intra-borehole versus advective aquifer flow on the transport of contaminants near the public-supply wells. The fraction of young water withdrawn from the studied supply well varies with simulated pumping rates due to changes in the relative contributions to flow from different aquifer intervals. The advective transport of dissolved solutes from a known contaminant source to the public-supply wells was simulated by using particle-tracking. Because of the transient groundwater flow field, scenarios with alternative contaminant release times result in different simulated-particle fates, most of which are withdrawn from the aquifer at wells that are between the source and the studied supply well. The relatively small effective porosity required to simulate advective transport from the simulated contaminant source to the studied supply well is representative of a preferential pathway and not the predominant aquifer effective porosity that was estimated by the calibration of the model to observed chemical-tracer concentrations.

Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America. PMID:21034458

A single-vendor and a single-buyer integrated inventory model with ordering cost reduction dependent on lead time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijayashree, M.; Uthayakumar, R.

2017-09-01

Lead time is one of the major limits that affect planning at every stage of the supply chain system. In this paper, we study a continuous review inventory model. This paper investigates the ordering cost reductions are dependent on lead time. This study addressed two-echelon supply chain problem consisting of a single vendor and a single buyer. The main contribution of this study is that the integrated total cost of the single vendor and the single buyer integrated system is analyzed by adopting two different (linear and logarithmic) types ordering cost reductions act dependent on lead time. In both cases, we develop effective solution procedures for finding the optimal solution and then illustrative numerical examples are given to illustrate the results. The solution procedure is to determine the optimal solutions of order quantity, ordering cost, lead time and the number of deliveries from the single vendor and the single buyer in one production run, so that the integrated total cost incurred has the minimum value. Ordering cost reduction is the main aspect of the proposed model. A numerical example is given to validate the model. Numerical example solved by using Matlab software. The mathematical model is solved analytically by minimizing the integrated total cost. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is included and the numerical examples are given to illustrate the results. The results obtained in this paper are illustrated with the help of numerical examples. The sensitivity of the proposed model has been checked with respect to the various major parameters of the system. Results reveal that the proposed integrated inventory model is more applicable for the supply chain manufacturing system. For each case, an algorithm procedure of finding the optimal solution is developed. Finally, the graphical representation is presented to illustrate the proposed model and also include the computer flowchart in each model.

24 CFR 3285.604 - Drainage system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... require drainage system crossover connections to join all sections of the home. The crossover design... all sections of the home and designed to be located underneath the home, they must be installed and... DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Ductwork and Plumbing and Fuel Supply Systems...

Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes: from socio-hydrological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D.; Wei, X.; Li, H. Y.; Lin, M.; Tian, F.; Huang, Q.

2017-12-01

In the socio-hydrological system, the ecological functions and environmental services, which are chosen to maintain, are determined by the preference of the society, which is making the trade-off among the values of riparian vegetation, fish, river landscape, water supply, hydropower, navigation and so on. As the society develops, the preference of the value will change and the ecological functions and environmental services which are chosen to maintain will change. The aim of the study is to focus on revealing the feedback relationship of water supply, hydropower and environment and the dynamical feedback mechanism at macro-scale, and to establish socio-hydrological evolution model of the watershed based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes. The study will aim at the Han River in China, analyze the impact of the water supply and hydropower on the ecology, hydrology and other environment elements, and study the effect on the water supply and hydropower to ensure the ecological and environmental water of the different level. Water supply and ecology are usually competitive. In some reservoirs, hydropower and ecology are synergic relationship while they are competitive in some reservoirs. The study will analyze the multiple mechanisms to implement the dynamical feedbacks of environment to hydropower, set up the quantitative relationship description of the feedback mechanisms, recognize the dominant processes in the feedback relationships of hydropower and environment and then analyze the positive and negative feedbacks in the feedback networks. The socio-hydrological evolution model at the watershed scale will be built and applied to simulate the long-term evolution processes of the watershed of the current situation. Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment will be investigated.

Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.

PubMed

Rafiei, Sima; Daneshvaran, Arman; Abdollahzade, Sina

2018-01-01

Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

Sustainability in Supply Chain Management: Aggregate Planning from Sustainability Perspective.

PubMed

Türkay, Metin; Saraçoğlu, Öztürk; Arslan, Mehmet Can

2016-01-01

Supply chain management that considers the flow of raw materials, products and information has become a focal issue in modern manufacturing and service systems. Supply chain management requires effective use of assets and information that has far reaching implications beyond satisfaction of customer demand, flow of goods, services or capital. Aggregate planning, a fundamental decision model in supply chain management, refers to the determination of production, inventory, capacity and labor usage levels in the medium term. Traditionally standard mathematical programming formulation is used to devise the aggregate plan so as to minimize the total cost of operations. However, this formulation is purely an economic model that does not include sustainability considerations. In this study, we revise the standard aggregate planning formulation to account for additional environmental and social criteria to incorporate triple bottom line consideration of sustainability. We show how these additional criteria can be appended to traditional cost accounting in order to address sustainability in aggregate planning. We analyze the revised models and interpret the results on a case study from real life that would be insightful for decision makers.

Supply chain network design problem for a new market opportunity in an agile manufacturing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babazadeh, Reza; Razmi, Jafar; Ghodsi, Reza

2012-08-01

The characteristics of today's competitive environment, such as the speed with which products are designed, manufactured, and distributed, and the need for higher responsiveness and lower operational cost, are forcing companies to search for innovative ways to do business. The concept of agile manufacturing has been proposed in response to these challenges for companies. This paper copes with the strategic and tactical level decisions in agile supply chain network design. An efficient mixed-integer linear programming model that is able to consider the key characteristics of agile supply chain such as direct shipments, outsourcing, different transportation modes, discount, alliance (process and information integration) between opened facilities, and maximum waiting time of customers for deliveries is developed. In addition, in the proposed model, the capacity of facilities is determined as decision variables, which are often assumed to be fixed. Computational results illustrate that the proposed model can be applied as a power tool in agile supply chain network design as well as in the integration of strategic decisions with tactical decisions.

Sustainability in Supply Chain Management: Aggregate Planning from Sustainability Perspective

PubMed Central

Türkay, Metin; Saraçoğlu, Öztürk; Arslan, Mehmet Can

2016-01-01

Supply chain management that considers the flow of raw materials, products and information has become a focal issue in modern manufacturing and service systems. Supply chain management requires effective use of assets and information that has far reaching implications beyond satisfaction of customer demand, flow of goods, services or capital. Aggregate planning, a fundamental decision model in supply chain management, refers to the determination of production, inventory, capacity and labor usage levels in the medium term. Traditionally standard mathematical programming formulation is used to devise the aggregate plan so as to minimize the total cost of operations. However, this formulation is purely an economic model that does not include sustainability considerations. In this study, we revise the standard aggregate planning formulation to account for additional environmental and social criteria to incorporate triple bottom line consideration of sustainability. We show how these additional criteria can be appended to traditional cost accounting in order to address sustainability in aggregate planning. We analyze the revised models and interpret the results on a case study from real life that would be insightful for decision makers. PMID:26807848

Selection of fire spread model for Russian fire behavior prediction system

Treesearch

Alexandra V. Volokitina; Kevin C. Ryan; Tatiana M. Sofronova; Mark A. Sofronov

2010-01-01

Mathematical modeling of fire behavior prediction is only possible if the models are supplied with an information database that provides spatially explicit input parameters for modeled area. Mathematical models can be of three kinds: 1) physical; 2) empirical; and 3) quasi-empirical (Sullivan, 2009). Physical models (Grishin, 1992) are of academic interest only because...

Landscaping the structures of GAVI country vaccine supply chains and testing the effects of radical redesign.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Connor, Diana L; Wateska, Angela R; Norman, Bryan A; Rajgopal, Jayant; Cakouros, Brigid E; Chen, Sheng-I; Claypool, Erin G; Haidari, Leila A; Karir, Veena; Leonard, Jim; Mueller, Leslie E; Paul, Proma; Schmitz, Michelle M; Welling, Joel S; Weng, Yu-Ting; Brown, Shawn T

2015-08-26

Many of the world's vaccine supply chains do not adequately provide vaccines, prompting several questions: how are vaccine supply chains currently structured, are these structures closely tailored to individual countries, and should these supply chains be radically redesigned? We segmented the 57 GAVI-eligible countries' vaccine supply chains based on their structure/morphology, analyzed whether these segments correlated with differences in country characteristics, and then utilized HERMES to develop a detailed simulation model of three sample countries' supply chains and explore the cost and impact of various alternative structures. The majority of supply chains (34 of 57) consist of four levels, despite serving a wide diversity of geographical areas and population sizes. These four-level supply chains loosely fall into three clusters [(1) 18 countries relatively more bottom-heavy, i.e., many more storage locations lower in the supply chain, (2) seven with relatively more storage locations in both top and lower levels, and (3) nine comparatively more top-heavy] which do not correlate closely with any of the country characteristics considered. For all three cluster types, our HERMES modeling found that simplified systems (a central location shipping directly to immunization locations with a limited number of Hubs in between) resulted in lower operating costs. A standard four-tier design template may have been followed for most countries and raises the possibility that simpler and more tailored designs may be warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opportunities and Challenges in the Design and Analysis of Biomass Supply Chains.

PubMed

Lautala, Pasi T; Hilliard, Michael R; Webb, Erin; Busch, Ingrid; Richard Hess, J; Roni, Mohammad S; Hilbert, Jorge; Handler, Robert M; Bittencourt, Roger; Valente, Amir; Laitinen, Tuuli

2015-12-01

The biomass supply chain is one of the most critical elements of large-scale bioenergy production and in many cases a key barrier for procuring initial funding for new developments on specific energy crops. Most productions rely on complex transforming chains linked to feed and food markets. The term 'supply chain' covers various aspects from cultivation and harvesting of the biomass, to treatment, transportation, and storage. After energy conversion, the product must be delivered to final consumption, whether it is in the form of electricity, heat, or more tangible products, such as pellets and biofuels. Effective supply chains are of utmost importance for bioenergy production, as biomass tends to possess challenging seasonal production cycles and low mass, energy and bulk densities. Additionally, the demand for final products is often also dispersed, further complicating the supply chain. The goal of this paper is to introduce key components of biomass supply chains, examples of related modeling applications, and if/how they address aspects related to environmental metrics and management. The paper will introduce a concept of integrated supply systems for sustainable biomass trade and the factors influencing the bioenergy supply chain landscape, including models that can be used to investigate the factors. The paper will also cover various aspects of transportation logistics, ranging from alternative modal and multi-modal alternatives to introduction of support tools for transportation analysis. Finally gaps and challenges in supply chain research are identified and used to outline research recommendations for the future direction in this area of study.

Opportunities and Challenges in the Design and Analysis of Biomass Supply Chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lautala, Pasi T.; Hilliard, Michael R.; Webb, Erin; Busch, Ingrid; Richard Hess, J.; Roni, Mohammad S.; Hilbert, Jorge; Handler, Robert M.; Bittencourt, Roger; Valente, Amir; Laitinen, Tuuli

2015-12-01

The biomass supply chain is one of the most critical elements of large-scale bioenergy production and in many cases a key barrier for procuring initial funding for new developments on specific energy crops. Most productions rely on complex transforming chains linked to feed and food markets. The term `supply chain' covers various aspects from cultivation and harvesting of the biomass, to treatment, transportation, and storage. After energy conversion, the product must be delivered to final consumption, whether it is in the form of electricity, heat, or more tangible products, such as pellets and biofuels. Effective supply chains are of utmost importance for bioenergy production, as biomass tends to possess challenging seasonal production cycles and low mass, energy and bulk densities. Additionally, the demand for final products is often also dispersed, further complicating the supply chain. The goal of this paper is to introduce key components of biomass supply chains, examples of related modeling applications, and if/how they address aspects related to environmental metrics and management. The paper will introduce a concept of integrated supply systems for sustainable biomass trade and the factors influencing the bioenergy supply chain landscape, including models that can be used to investigate the factors. The paper will also cover various aspects of transportation logistics, ranging from alternative modal and multi-modal alternatives to introduction of support tools for transportation analysis. Finally gaps and challenges in supply chain research are identified and used to outline research recommendations for the future direction in this area of study.

The aggregate timberland assessment system—ATLAS: a comprehensive timber projection model.

Treesearch

J.R. Mills; J.C. Kincaid

1992-01-01

The aggregate timberland assessment system is a time-based deterministic timber projection model. It was developed by the USDA Forest Service to address broad policy questions related to future timber supplies for the 1989 Renewable Resources Planning Act timber assessment. An open framework design allows for customizing inputs to account for regional and subregional...

Power System and Energy Storage Models for Laser Integration on Naval Platforms

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Batteries The model for the system with lithium - ion battery storage is practically identical to the one with lead-acid batteries. The battery used in...supply 60, 6-second laser shots at a 50% duty cycle before depletion, and is comparable to the lead acid and lithium - ion battery storage. Figure 7

The Economic Impact of the Community College System on the State of Florida.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weitzman, Scott M.

In an effort to assess the economic impact of the Florida Community College System (FCCS) on the state, two theoretical models were utilized. The first model determines the FCCS's total expenditures in supplies and services, and then applies to these figures a mathematical multiplier to account for the additional economic business generated by…

User's manual for LINEAR, a FORTRAN program to derive linear aircraft models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, Eugene L.; Patterson, Brian P.; Antoniewicz, Robert F.

1987-01-01

This report documents a FORTRAN program that provides a powerful and flexible tool for the linearization of aircraft models. The program LINEAR numerically determines a linear system model using nonlinear equations of motion and a user-supplied nonlinear aerodynamic model. The system model determined by LINEAR consists of matrices for both state and observation equations. The program has been designed to allow easy selection and definition of the state, control, and observation variables to be used in a particular model.

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

PubMed

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

Employing a Modified Diffuser Momentum Model to Simulate Ventilation of the Orion CEV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Straus, John; Lewis, John F.

2011-01-01

The Ansys CFX CFD modeling tool was used to support the design efforts of the ventilation system for the Orion CEV. CFD modeling was used to establish the flow field within the cabin for several supply configurations. A mesh and turbulence model sensitivity study was performed before the design studies. Results were post-processed for comparison with performance requirements. Most configurations employed straight vaned diffusers to direct and throw the flow. To manage the size of the models, the diffuser vanes were not resolved. Instead, a momentum model was employed to account for the effect of the diffusers. The momentum model was tested against a separate, vane-resolved side study. Results are presented for a single diffuser configuration for a low supply flow case.

Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, David E.; Tarawneh, Tarek; Abdel-Khaleq, Rania; Lund, Jay R.

2007-07-01

We apply systems analysis to estimate household water use in an intermittent supply system considering numerous interdependent water user behaviors. Some 39 household actions include conservation; improving local storage or water quality; and accessing sources having variable costs, availabilities, reliabilities, and qualities. A stochastic optimization program with recourse decisions identifies the infrastructure investments and short-term coping actions a customer can adopt to cost-effectively respond to a probability distribution of piped water availability. Monte Carlo simulations show effects for a population of customers. Model calibration reproduces the distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Parametric analyses suggest economic and demand responses to increased availability and alternative pricing. It also suggests potential market penetration for conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, and finance conservation.

Feasibility of Human Skin Grafts on an Isolated but Accessible Vascular Supply on Athymic Rats as a System to Study Percutaneous Penetration and Cutaneous Injury.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-11-01

HUMAN SKIN GRAFTS ON AN ISOLATED BUT ACCESSIBLE VASCULAR SUPPLY ON ATHYMIC RATS AS A SYSTEM TO STUDY PERCUTANEOUS PENETRATION AND CUTANEOUS INJURY...RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE (aend Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Feasibility of Human Skin Grafts on an Isolated Annual report...Human skin graft on athymic rat Human skin model to study percutaneous penetration and cutaneous injury 20. ABSTRACT (Contiue an reverse *ftb it

Developing a Procedure for Segmenting Meshed Heat Networks of Heat Supply Systems without Outflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarev, V. V.

2018-06-01

The heat supply systems of cities have, as a rule, a ring structure with the possibility of redistributing the flows. Despite the fact that a ring structure is more reliable than a radial one, the operators of heat networks prefer to use them in normal modes according to the scheme without overflows of the heat carrier between the heat mains. With such a scheme, it is easier to adjust the networks and to detect and locate faults in them. The article proposes a formulation of the heat network segmenting problem. The problem is set in terms of optimization with the heat supply system's excessive hydraulic power used as the optimization criterion. The heat supply system computer model has a hierarchically interconnected multilevel structure. Since iterative calculations are only carried out for the level of trunk heat networks, decomposing the entire system into levels allows the dimensionality of the solved subproblems to be reduced by an order of magnitude. An attempt to solve the problem by fully enumerating possible segmentation versions does not seem to be feasible for systems of really existing sizes. The article suggests a procedure for searching rational segmentation of heat supply networks with limiting the search to versions of dividing the system into segments near the flow convergence nodes with subsequent refining of the solution. The refinement is performed in two stages according to the total excess hydraulic power criterion. At the first stage, the loads are redistributed among the sources. After that, the heat networks are divided into independent fragments, and the possibility of increasing the excess hydraulic power in the obtained fragments is checked by shifting the division places inside a fragment. The proposed procedure has been approbated taking as an example a municipal heat supply system involving six heat mains fed from a common source, 24 loops within the feeding mains plane, and more than 5000 consumers. Application of the proposed segmentation procedure made it possible to find a version with required hydraulic power in the heat supply system on 3% less than the one found using the simultaneous segmentation method.

On the analysis of complex biological supply chains: From Process Systems Engineering to Quantitative Systems Pharmacology.

PubMed

Rao, Rohit T; Scherholz, Megerle L; Hartmanshenn, Clara; Bae, Seul-A; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2017-12-05

The use of models in biology has become particularly relevant as it enables investigators to develop a mechanistic framework for understanding the operating principles of living systems as well as in quantitatively predicting their response to both pathological perturbations and pharmacological interventions. This application has resulted in a synergistic convergence of systems biology and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling techniques that has led to the emergence of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP). In this review, we discuss how the foundational principles of chemical process systems engineering inform the progressive development of more physiologically-based systems biology models.

Ambulatory Healthcare Utilization in the United States: A System Dynamics Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diaz, Rafael; Behr, Joshua G.; Tulpule, Mandar

2011-01-01

Ambulatory health care needs within the United States are served by a wide range of hospitals, clinics, and private practices. The Emergency Department (ED) functions as an important point of supply for ambulatory healthcare services. Growth in our aging populations as well as changes stemming from broader healthcare reform are expected to continue trend in congestion and increasing demand for ED services. While congestion is, in part, a manifestation of unmatched demand, the state of the alignment between the demand for, and supply of, emergency department services affects quality of care and profitability. The central focus of this research is to provide an explanation of the salient factors at play within the dynamic demand-supply tensions within which ambulatory care is provided within an Emergency Department. A System Dynamics (SO) simulation model is used to capture the complexities among the intricate balance and conditional effects at play within the demand-supply emergency department environment. Conceptual clarification of the forces driving the elements within the system , quantifying these elements, and empirically capturing the interaction among these elements provides actionable knowledge for operational and strategic decision-making.

Climate change vulnerability in the food, energy, and water nexus: concerns for agricultural production in Arizona and its urban export supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berardy, Andrew; Chester, Mikhail V.

2017-03-01

Interdependent systems providing water and energy services are necessary for agriculture. Climate change and increased resource demands are expected to cause frequent and severe strains on these systems. Arizona is especially vulnerable to such strains due to its hot and arid climate. However, its climate enables year-round agricultural production, allowing Arizona to supply most of the country’s winter lettuce and vegetables. In addition to Phoenix and Tucson, cities including El Paso, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Diego rely on Arizona for several types of agricultural products such as animal feed and livestock, meaning that disruptions to Arizona’s agriculture also disrupt food supply chains to at least six major cities. Arizona’s predominately irrigated agriculture relies on water imported through an energy intensive process from water-stressed regions. Most irrigation in Arizona is electricity powered, so failures in energy or water systems can cascade to the food system, creating a food-energy-water (FEW) nexus of vulnerability. We construct a dynamic simulation model of the FEW nexus in Arizona to assess the potential impacts of increasing temperatures and disruptions to energy and water supplies on crop irrigation requirements, on-farm energy use, and yield. We use this model to identify critical points of intersection between energy, water, and agricultural systems and quantify expected increases in resource use and yield loss. Our model is based on threshold temperatures of crops, USDA and US Geological Survey data, Arizona crop budgets, and region-specific literature. We predict that temperature increase above the baseline could decrease yields by up to 12.2% per 1 °C for major Arizona crops and require increased irrigation of about 2.6% per 1 °C. Response to drought varies widely based on crop and phenophase, so we estimate irrigation interruption effects through scenario analysis. We provide an overview of potential adaptation measures farmers can take, and barriers to implementation.

Decision support system for drinking water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janža, M.

2012-04-01

The problems in drinking water management are complex and often solutions must be reached under strict time constrains. This is especially distinct in case of environmental accidents in the catchment areas of the wells that are used for drinking water supply. The beneficial tools that can help decision makers and make program of activities more efficient are decision support systems (DSS). In general they are defined as computer-based support systems that help decision makers utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems. The presented DSS was developed in the frame of INCOME project which is focused on the long-term stable and safe drinking water supply in Ljubljana. The two main water resources Ljubljana polje and Barje alluvial aquifers are characterized by a strong interconnection of surface and groundwater, high vulnerability, high velocities of groundwater flow and pollutant transport. In case of sudden pollution, reactions should be very fast to avoid serious impact to the water supply. In the area high pressures arising from urbanization, industry, traffic, agriculture and old environmental burdens. The aim of the developed DSS is to optimize the activities in cases of emergency water management and to optimize the administrative work regarding the activities that can improve groundwater quality status. The DSS is an interactive computer system that utilizes data base, hydrological modelling, and experts' and stakeholders' knowledge. It consists of three components, tackling the different abovementioned issues in water management. The first one utilizes the work on identification, cleaning up and restoration of illegal dumpsites that are a serious threat to the qualitative status of groundwater. The other two components utilize the predictive capability of the hydrological model and scenario analysis. The user interacts with the system by a graphical interface that guides the user step-by-step to the recommended remedial measures. Consequently, the acquisition of information to support the water management's decisions is simplified and faster, thus contributing to more efficient water management and a safer supply of drinking water.

Particle-tracking analysis of contributing areas of public-supply wells in simple and complex flow systems, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, P.M.

1994-01-01

Steady-state, two-and three-dimensional, ground-water flow models coupled with a particle- tracking program were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in delineating contributing areas of existing and hypothetical public-supply wells pumping from two contrasting stratified-drift aquifers of Cape Cod, Mass. Several of the contri- buting areas delineated by use of the three- dimensional models do not conform to simple ellipsoidal shapes that are typically delineated by use of a two-dimensional analytical and numerical modeling techniques, include dis- continuous areas of the water table, and do not surround the wells. Because two-dimensional areal models do not account for vertical flow, they cannot adequately represent many of the hydro- geologic and well-design variables that were shown to complicate the delineation of contributing areas in these flow systems, including the presence of discrete lenses of 1ow hydraulic conductivity, large ratios of horizontal to ver- tical hydraulic conductivity, shallow streams, partially penetrating supply wells, and 1ow pumping rates (less than 0.1 million gallons per day). Nevertheless, contributing areas delineated for two wells in the simpler of the two flow systems--a thin (less than 100 feet), single- layer, uniform aquifer with near-ideal boundary conditions--were not significantly different for the two- or three-dimensional models of the natural system, for a pumping rate of 0.5 million gallons per day. Use of particle tracking helped identify the source of water to simulated wells, which included precipitation recharge, wastewater return flow, and pond water. Pond water and wastewater return flow accounted for as much as 73 and 40 percent, respectively, of the water captured by simulated wells.

Computational analysis of nonlinearities within dynamics of cable-based driving systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghelache, G. D.; Nastac, S.

2017-08-01

This paper deals with computational nonlinear dynamics of mechanical systems containing some flexural parts within the actuating scheme, and, especially, the situations of the cable-based driving systems were treated. It was supposed both functional nonlinearities and the real characteristic of the power supply, in order to obtain a realistically computer simulation model being able to provide very feasible results regarding the system dynamics. It was taken into account the transitory and stable regimes during a regular exploitation cycle. The authors present a particular case of a lift system, supposed to be representatively for the objective of this study. The simulations were made based on the values of the essential parameters acquired from the experimental tests and/or the regular practice in the field. The results analysis and the final discussions reveal the correlated dynamic aspects within the mechanical parts, the driving system, and the power supply, whole of these supplying potential sources of particular resonances, within some transitory phases of the working cycle, and which can affect structural and functional dynamics. In addition, it was underlines the influences of computational hypotheses on the both quantitative and qualitative behaviour of the system. Obviously, the most significant consequence of this theoretical and computational research consist by developing an unitary and feasible model, useful to dignify the nonlinear dynamic effects into the systems with cable-based driving scheme, and hereby to help an optimization of the exploitation regime including a dynamics control measures.

The Money-Creation Model: An Alternative Pedagogy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thornton, Mark; And Others

1991-01-01

Presents a teaching model that is consistent with the traditional approach to demonstrating the expansion and contraction of the money supply. Suggests that the model provides a simple and convenient visual image of changes in the monetary system. Describes the model as juxtaposing the behavior of the moneyholding public with that of the…

A Web-based Tool for Transparent, Collaborative Urban Water System Planning for Monterrey, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheinheimer, D. E.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Garza Díaz, L. E.; Ramírez, A. I.

2017-12-01

Recent rapid advances in web technologies and cloud computing show great promise for facilitating collaboration and transparency in water planning efforts. Water resources planning is increasingly in the context of a rapidly urbanizing world, particularly in developing countries. In such countries with democratic traditions, the degree of transparency and collaboration in water planning can mean the difference between success and failure of water planning efforts. This is exemplified in the city of Monterrey, Mexico, where an effort to build a new long-distance aqueduct to increase water supply to the city dramatically failed due to lack of transparency and top-down planning. To help address, we used a new, web-based water system modeling platform, called OpenAgua, to develop a prototype decision support system for water planning in Monterrey. OpenAgua is designed to promote transparency and collaboration, as well as provide strong, cloud-based, water system modeling capabilities. We developed and assessed five water management options intended to increase water supply yield and/or reliability, a dominant water management concern in Latin America generally: 1) a new long-distance source (the previously-rejected project), 2) a new nearby reservoir, 3) expansion/re-operation of an existing major canal, 4) desalination, and 5) industrial water reuse. Using the integrated modeling and analytic capabilities of OpenAgua, and some customization, we assessed the performance of these options for water supply yield and reliability to help identify the most promising ones. In presenting this assessment, we demonstrate the viability of using online, cloud-based modeling systems for improving transparency and collaboration in decision making, reducing the gap between citizens, policy makers and water managers, and future directions.

Factorial analysis of trihalomethanes formation in drinking water.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2010-06-01

Disinfection of drinking water reduces pathogenic infection, but may pose risks to human health through the formation of disinfection byproducts. The effects of different factors on the formation of trihalomethanes were investigated using a statistically designed experimental program, and a predictive model for trihalomethanes formation was developed. Synthetic water samples with different factor levels were produced, and trihalomethanes concentrations were measured. A replicated fractional factorial design with center points was performed, and significant factors were identified through statistical analysis. A second-order trihalomethanes formation model was developed from 92 experiments, and the statistical adequacy was assessed through appropriate diagnostics. This model was validated using additional data from the Drinking Water Surveillance Program database and was applied to the Smiths Falls water supply system in Ontario, Canada. The model predictions were correlated strongly to the measured trihalomethanes, with correlations of 0.95 and 0.91, respectively. The resulting model can assist in analyzing risk-cost tradeoffs in the design and operation of water supply systems.

Exploration Supply Chain Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

The Exploration Supply Chain Simulation project was chartered by the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate to develop a software tool, with proper data, to quantitatively analyze supply chains for future program planning. This tool is a discrete-event simulation that uses the basic supply chain concepts of planning, sourcing, making, delivering, and returning. This supply chain perspective is combined with other discrete or continuous simulation factors. Discrete resource events (such as launch or delivery reviews) are represented as organizational functional units. Continuous resources (such as civil service or contractor program functions) are defined as enabling functional units. Concepts of fixed and variable costs are included in the model to allow the discrete events to interact with cost calculations. The definition file is intrinsic to the model, but a blank start can be initiated at any time. The current definition file is an Orion Ares I crew launch vehicle. Parameters stretch from Kennedy Space Center across and into other program entities (Michaud Assembly Facility, Aliant Techsystems, Stennis Space Center, Johnson Space Center, etc.) though these will only gain detail as the file continues to evolve. The Orion Ares I file definition in the tool continues to evolve, and analysis from this tool is expected in 2008. This is the first application of such business-driven modeling to a NASA/government-- aerospace contractor endeavor.

Simulations of Groundwater Flow and Particle Tracking Analysis in the Area Contributing Recharge to a Public-Supply Well near Tampa, Florida, 2002-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandall, Christy A.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Katz, Brian G.; Metz, Patricia A.; McBride, W. Scott; Berndt, Marian P.

2009-01-01

Shallow ground water in the north-central Tampa Bay region, Florida, is affected by elevated nitrate concentrations, the presence of volatile organic compounds, and pesticides as a result of groundwater development and intensive urban land use. The region relies primarily on groundwater for drinking-water supplies. Sustainability of groundwater quality for public supply requires monitoring and understanding of the mechanisms controlling the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination. A single public-supply well was selected for intensive study based on the need to evaluate the dominant processes affecting the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Upper Floridan aquifer in the City of Temple Terrace near Tampa, Florida, and the presence of a variety of chemical constituents in water from the well. A network of 29 monitoring wells was installed, and water and sediment samples were collected within the area contributing recharge to the selected public-supply well to support a detailed analysis of physical and chemical conditions and processes affecting the water chemistry in the well. A three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to evaluate the age of groundwater reaching the well and to test hypotheses on the vulnerability of the well to nonpoint source input of nitrate. Particle tracking data were used to calculate environmental tracer concentrations of tritium and sulfur hexafluoride and to calibrate traveltimes and compute flow paths and advective travel times in the model area. The traveltime of particles reaching the selected public-supply well ranged from less than 1 day to 127.0 years, with a median of 13.1 years; nearly 45 percent of the simulated particle ages were less than about 10 years. Nitrate concentrations, derived primarily from residential/commercial fertilizer use and atmospheric deposition, were highest (2.4 and 6.11 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, median and maximum, respectively) in shallow groundwater from the surficial aquifer system and lowest (less than the detection level of 0.06 milligram per liter) in the deeper Upper Floridan aquifer. Denitrification occurred near the interface of the surficial aquifer system and the underlying intermediate confining unit, within the intermediate confining unit, and within the Upper Floridan aquifer because of reducing conditions in this part of the flow system. However, simulations indicate that the rapid movement of water from the surficial aquifer system to the selected public-supply well through karst features (sinkholes) and conduit layers that bypass the denitrifying zones (short-circuits), coupled with high pumping rates, allow nitrate to reach the selected public-supply well in concentrations that resemble those of the overlying surficial aquifer system. Water from the surficial aquifer system with elevated concentrations of nitrate and low concentrations of some volatile organic compounds and pesticides is expected to continue moving into the selected public-supply well, because calculated flux-weighted concentrations indicate the proportion of young affected water contributing to the well is likely to remain relatively stable over time. The calculated nitrate concentration in the selected public-supply well indicates a lag of 1 to 10 years between peak concentrations of nonpoint source contaminants in recharge and appearance in the well.

Incorporating location, routing, and inventory decisions in a bi-objective supply chain design problem with risk-pooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, Reza; Forouzanfar, Fateme; Ebrahimnejad, Sadoullah

2013-07-01

This paper considers a single-sourcing network design problem for a three-level supply chain. For the first time, a novel mathematical model is presented considering risk-pooling, the inventory existence at distribution centers (DCs) under demand uncertainty, the existence of several alternatives to transport the product between facilities, and routing of vehicles from distribution centers to customer in a stochastic supply chain system, simultaneously. This problem is formulated as a bi-objective stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear programming model. The aim of this model is to determine the number of located distribution centers, their locations, and capacity levels, and allocating customers to distribution centers and distribution centers to suppliers. It also determines the inventory control decisions on the amount of ordered products and the amount of safety stocks at each opened DC, selecting a type of vehicle for transportation. Moreover, it determines routing decisions, such as determination of vehicles' routes starting from an opened distribution center to serve its allocated customers and returning to that distribution center. All are done in a way that the total system cost and the total transportation time are minimized. The Lingo software is used to solve the presented model. The computational results are illustrated in this paper.

A stochastic multi-agent optimization model for energy infrastructure planning under uncertainty and competition.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

This paper presents a stochastic multi-agent optimization model that supports energy infrastruc- : ture planning under uncertainty. The interdependence between dierent decision entities in the : system is captured in an energy supply chain network, w...

An open source hydroeconomic model for California's water supply system: PyVIN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, M. S.; White, E.; Herman, J. D.; Hart, Q.; Merz, J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Lund, J. R.

2016-12-01

Models help operators and decision makers explore and compare different management and policy alternatives, better allocate scarce resources, and predict the future behavior of existing or proposed water systems. Hydroeconomic models are useful tools to increase benefits or decrease costs of managing water. Bringing hydrology and economics together, these models provide a framework for different disciplines that share similar objectives. This work proposes a new model to evaluate operation and adaptation strategies under existing and future hydrologic conditions for California's interconnected water system. This model combines the network structure of CALVIN, a statewide optimization model for California's water infrastructure, along with an open source solver written in the Python programming language. With the flexibilities of the model, reservoir operations, including water supply and hydropower, groundwater pumping, and the Delta water operations and requirements can now be better represented. Given time series of hydrologic inputs to the model, typical outputs include urban, agricultural and wildlife refuge water deliveries and shortage costs, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater systems, and insights into policy and management decisions, such as capacity expansion and groundwater management policies. Water market operations also represented in the model, allocating water from lower-valued users to higher-valued users. PyVIN serves as a cross-platform, extensible model to evaluate systemwide water operations. PyVIN separates data from the model structure, enabling model to be easily applied to other parts of the world where water is a scarce resource.

Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) Data Analysis System (DAS). Environmental Quality Technology Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

is comprised of an EMI sensor, cesium (Cs) vapor magnetometer , fluxgate magnetometer , hand-held data acquisition computer, integrated power supply...Geometrics model 823A Cs vapor magnetometer . The fluxgate magnetometer is a Bartington model Mag-3MRN60, three- axis fluxgate magnetometer . The system...9. The ERDC hand-held Dual TFM/EMI with ArcSecond positioning system. During standard usage, the fluxgate magnetometer is used to provide the

Multi-Megawatt Gas Turbine Power Systems for Lunar Colonies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juhasz, Albert J.

2006-01-01

A concept for development of second generation 10 MWe prototype lunar power plant utilizing a gas cooled fission reactor supplying heated helium working fluid to two parallel 5 MWe closed cycle gas turbines is presented. Such a power system is expected to supply the energy needs for an initial lunar colony with a crew of up to 50 persons engaged in mining and manufacturing activities. System performance and mass details were generated by an author developed code (BRMAPS). The proposed pilot power plant can be a model for future plants of the same capacity that could be tied to an evolutionary lunar power grid.

Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

DOE PAGES

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; ...

2015-06-10

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effectsmore » of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.« less

Enhancing Nursing Staffing Forecasting With Safety Stock Over Lead Time Modeling.

PubMed

McNair, Douglas S

2015-01-01

In balancing competing priorities, it is essential that nursing staffing provide enough nurses to safely and effectively care for the patients. Mathematical models to predict optimal "safety stocks" have been routine in supply chain management for many years but have up to now not been applied in nursing workforce management. There are various aspects that exhibit similarities between the 2 disciplines, such as an evolving demand forecast according to acuity and the fact that provisioning "stock" to meet demand in a future period has nonzero variable lead time. Under assumptions about the forecasts (eg, the demand process is well fit as an autoregressive process) and about the labor supply process (≥1 shifts' lead time), we show that safety stock over lead time for such systems is effectively equivalent to the corresponding well-studied problem for systems with stationary demand bounds and base stock policies. Hence, we can apply existing models from supply chain analytics to find the optimal safety levels of nurse staffing. We use a case study with real data to demonstrate that there are significant benefits from the inclusion of the forecast process when determining the optimal safety stocks.

Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

EPA Science Inventory

Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

McCook Reservoir Water Quality Model. Numerical Model Investigation

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

REPT TYPE AND DATES COVERED ad September Cana Final report . LEAND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUERS Spinfild VA2261 ThcCook Reservoir Water Quality Model...oxygen injected by the aeration system Manufacturers of diffusers supply OTE information specific to gas flow rate and depth. The depths at which most

Assessing Receiving Water Quality Impacts due to Flow Path Alteration in Residential Catchments, using the Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolosoff, S. E.; Duncan, J.; Endreny, T.

2001-05-01

The Croton water supply system, responsible for supplying approximately 10% of New York City's water, provides an opportunity for exploration into the impacts of significant terrestrial flow path alteration upon receiving water quality. Natural flow paths are altered during residential development in order to allow for construction at a given location, reductions in water table elevation in low lying areas and to provide drainage of increased overland flow volumes. Runoff conducted through an artificial drainage system, is prevented from being attenuated by the natural environment, thus the pollutant removal capacity inherent in most natural catchments is often limited to areas where flow paths are not altered by development. By contrasting the impacts of flow path alterations in two small catchments in the Croton system, with different densities of residential development, we can begin to identify appropriate limits to the re-routing of runoff in catchments draining into surface water supplies. The Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model (SWMM) will be used as a tool to predict the runoff quantity and quality generated from two small residential catchments and to simulate the potential benefits of changes to the existing drainage system design, which may improve water quality due to longer residence times.

Evaluating water conservation and reuse policies using a dynamic water balance model.

PubMed

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Development of a decision support tool for seasonal water supply management incorporating system uncertainties and operational constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Asefa, T.

2017-12-01

A real-time decision support tool (DST) for water supply system would consider system uncertainties, e.g., uncertain streamflow and demand, as well as operational constraints and infrastructure outage (e.g., pump station shutdown, an offline reservoir due to maintenance). Such DST is often used by water managers for resource allocation and delivery for customers. Although most seasonal DST used by water managers recognize those system uncertainties and operational constraints, most use only historical information or assume deterministic outlook of water supply systems. This study presents a seasonal DST that incorporates rainfall/streamflow uncertainties, seasonal demand outlook and system operational constraints. Large scale climate-information is captured through a rainfall simulator driven by a Bayesian non-homogeneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo model that allows non-stationary transition probabilities contingent on Nino 3.4 index. An ad-hoc seasonal demand forecasting model considers weather conditions explicitly and socio-economic factors implicitly. Latin Hypercube sampling is employed to effectively sample probability density functions of flow and demand. Seasonal system operation is modelled as a mixed-integer optimization problem that aims at minimizing operational costs. It embeds the flexibility of modifying operational rules at different components, e.g., surface water treatment plants, desalination facilities, and groundwater pumping stations. The proposed framework is illustrated at a wholesale water supplier in Southeastern United States, Tampa Bay Water. The use of the tool is demonstrated in proving operational guidance in a typical drawdown and refill cycle of a regional reservoir. The DST provided: 1) probabilistic outlook of reservoir storage and chance of a successful refill by the end of rainy season; 2) operational expectations for large infrastructures (e.g., high service pumps and booster stations) throughout the season. Other potential use of such DST is also discussed.

A Simulation Model for Procedure Inference from a Mental Model for a Simple Device.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-05-25

can flow to, and the indicator lights show where the power is present. According to these results, the critical information is the system topology...show the flow of power into the energon storage system. Maintenance of a collapsed energon ring requires a supply of vector bosons which is...model; in some tasks there is clearly no effect. The device model in that study was developed intuitivIy. But upon examining the model in light of the

Research on Coordination of Fresh Produce Supply Chain in Big Market Sales Environment

PubMed Central

Su, Juning; Liu, Chenguang

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose two decision models for decentralized and centralized fresh produce supply chains with stochastic supply and demand and controllable transportation time. The optimal order quantity and the optimal transportation time in these two supply chain systems are derived. To improve profits in a decentralized supply chain, based on analyzing the risk taken by each participant in the supply chain, we design a set of contracts which can coordinate this type of fresh produce supply chain with stochastic supply and stochastic demand, and controllable transportation time as well. We also obtain a value range of contract parameters that can increase profits of all participants in the decentralized supply chain. The expected profits of the decentralized setting and the centralized setting are compared with respect to given numerical examples. Furthermore, the sensitivity analyses of the deterioration rate factor and the freshness factor are performed. The results of numerical examples show that the transportation time is shorter, the order quantity is smaller, the total profit of whole supply chain is less, and the possibility of cooperation between supplier and retailer is higher for the fresh produce which is more perishable and its quality decays more quickly. PMID:24764770

Research on coordination of fresh produce supply chain in big market sales environment.

PubMed

Su, Juning; Wu, Jiebing; Liu, Chenguang

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose two decision models for decentralized and centralized fresh produce supply chains with stochastic supply and demand and controllable transportation time. The optimal order quantity and the optimal transportation time in these two supply chain systems are derived. To improve profits in a decentralized supply chain, based on analyzing the risk taken by each participant in the supply chain, we design a set of contracts which can coordinate this type of fresh produce supply chain with stochastic supply and stochastic demand, and controllable transportation time as well. We also obtain a value range of contract parameters that can increase profits of all participants in the decentralized supply chain. The expected profits of the decentralized setting and the centralized setting are compared with respect to given numerical examples. Furthermore, the sensitivity analyses of the deterioration rate factor and the freshness factor are performed. The results of numerical examples show that the transportation time is shorter, the order quantity is smaller, the total profit of whole supply chain is less, and the possibility of cooperation between supplier and retailer is higher for the fresh produce which is more perishable and its quality decays more quickly.

Challenges in scaling up biofuels infrastructure.

PubMed

Richard, Tom L

2010-08-13

Rapid growth in demand for lignocellulosic bioenergy will require major changes in supply chain infrastructure. Even with densification and preprocessing, transport volumes by mid-century are likely to exceed the combined capacity of current agricultural and energy supply chains, including grain, petroleum, and coal. Efficient supply chains can be achieved through decentralized conversion processes that facilitate local sourcing, satellite preprocessing and densification for long-distance transport, and business models that reward biomass growers both nearby and afar. Integrated systems that are cost-effective and energy-efficient will require new ways of thinking about agriculture, energy infrastructure, and rural economic development. Implementing these integrated systems will require innovation and investment in novel technologies, efficient value chains, and socioeconomic and policy frameworks; all are needed to support an expanded biofuels infrastructure that can meet the challenges of scale.

Toward a synthetic economic systems modeling tool for sustainable exploitation of ecosystems.

PubMed

Richardson, Colin; Courvisanos, Jerry; Crawford, John W

2011-02-01

Environmental resources that underpin the basic human needs of water, energy, and food are predicted to become in such short supply by 2050 that global security and the well-being of millions will be under threat. These natural commodities have been allowed to reach crisis levels of supply because of a failure of economic systems to sustain them. This is largely because there have been no means of integrating their exploitation into any economic model that effectively addresses ecological systemic failures in a way that provides an integrated ecological-economic tool that can monitor and evaluate market and policy targets. We review the reasons for this and recent attempts to address the problem while identifying outstanding issues. The key elements of a policy-oriented economic model that integrates ecosystem processes are described and form the basis of a proposed new synthesis approach. The approach is illustrated by an indicative case study that develops a simple model for rainfed and irrigated food production in the Murray-Darling basin of southeastern Australia. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Progression to multi-scale models and the application to food system intervention strategies.

PubMed

Gröhn, Yrjö T

2015-02-01

The aim of this article is to discuss how the systems science approach can be used to optimize intervention strategies in food animal systems. It advocates the idea that the challenges of maintaining a safe food supply are best addressed by integrating modeling and mathematics with biological studies critical to formulation of public policy to address these challenges. Much information on the biology and epidemiology of food animal systems has been characterized through single-discipline methods, but until now this information has not been thoroughly utilized in a fully integrated manner. The examples are drawn from our current research. The first, explained in depth, uses clinical mastitis to introduce the concept of dynamic programming to optimize management decisions in dairy cows (also introducing the curse of dimensionality problem). In the second example, a compartmental epidemic model for Johne's disease with different intervention strategies is optimized. The goal of the optimization strategy depends on whether there is a relationship between Johne's and Crohn's disease. If so, optimization is based on eradication of infection; if not, it is based on the cow's performance only (i.e., economic optimization, similar to the mastitis example). The third example focuses on food safety to introduce risk assessment using Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella Typhimurium. The last example, practical interventions to effectively manage antibiotic resistance in beef and dairy cattle systems, introduces meta-population modeling that accounts for bacterial growth not only in the host (cow), but also in the cow's feed, drinking water and the housing environment. Each example stresses the need to progress toward multi-scale modeling. The article ends with examples of multi-scale systems, from food supply systems to Johne's disease. Reducing the consequences of foodborne illnesses (i.e., minimizing disease occurrence and associated costs) can only occur through an understanding of the system as a whole, including all its complexities. Thus the goal of future research should be to merge disciplines such as molecular biology, applied mathematics and social sciences to gain a better understanding of complex systems such as the food supply chain. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimum systems design with random input and output applied to solar water heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Malek, L. L.

1980-03-01

Solar water heating systems are evaluated. Models were developed to estimate the percentage of energy supplied from the Sun to a household. Since solar water heating systems have random input and output queueing theory, birth and death processes were the major tools in developing the models of evaluation. Microeconomics methods help in determining the optimum size of the solar water heating system design parameters, i.e., the water tank volume and the collector area.

Examining the influence of family physician supply on district health system performance in South Africa: An ecological analysis of key health indicators

PubMed Central

Mash, Robert J.

2017-01-01

Background The supply of appropriate health workers is a key building block in the World Health Organization’s model of effective health systems. Primary care teams are stronger if they contain doctors with postgraduate training in family medicine. The contribution of such family physicians to the performance of primary care systems has not been evaluated in the African context. Family physicians with postgraduate training entered the South African district health system (DHS) from 2011. Aim This study aimed to evaluate the impact of family physicians within the DHS of South Africa. The objectives were to evaluate the impact of an increase in family physician supply in each district (number per 10 000 population) on key health indicators. Setting All 52 South African health districts were included as units of analysis. Methods An ecological study evaluated the correlations between the supply of family physicians and routinely collected data on district performance for two time periods: 2010/2011 and 2014/2015. Results Five years after the introduction of the new generation of family physicians, this study showed no demonstrable correlation between family physician supply and improved health indicators from the macro-perspective of the district. Conclusion The lack of a measurable impact at the level of the district is most likely because of the very low supply of family physicians in the public sector. Studies which evaluate impact closer to the family physician’s circle of control may be better positioned to demonstrate a measurable impact in the short term. PMID:28470076

Challenges and models in supporting logistics system design for dedicated-biomass-based bioenergy industry.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaoyan; Li, Xueping; Yao, Qingzhu; Chen, Yuerong

2011-01-01

This paper analyzed the uniqueness and challenges in designing the logistics system for dedicated biomass-to-bioenergy industry, which differs from the other industries, due to the unique features of dedicated biomass (e.g., switchgrass) including its low bulk density, restrictions on harvesting season and frequency, content variation with time and circumambient conditions, weather effects, scattered distribution over a wide geographical area, and so on. To design it, this paper proposed a mixed integer linear programming model. It covered from planting and harvesting switchgrass to delivering to a biorefinery and included the residue handling, concentrating on integrating strategic decisions on the supply chain design and tactical decisions on the annual operation schedules. The present numerical examples verified the model and demonstrated its use in practice. This paper showed that the operations of the logistics system were significantly different for harvesting and non-harvesting seasons, and that under the well-designed biomass logistics system, the mass production with a steady and sufficient supply of biomass can increase the unit profit of bioenergy. The analytical model and practical methodology proposed in this paper will help realize the commercial production in biomass-to-bioenergy industry. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the electricity intensity of evolving water supply mixes: the case of California’s water network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes-Draut, Jennifer; Taptich, Michael; Kavvada, Olga; Horvath, Arpad

2017-11-01

Climate change is making water supply less predictable, even unreliable, in parts of the world. Urban water providers, especially in already arid areas, will need to diversify their water resources by switching to alternative sources and negotiating trading agreements to create more resilient and interdependent networks. The increasing complexity of these networks will likely require more operational electricity. The ability to document, visualize, and analyze water-energy relationships will be critical to future water planning, especially as data needed to conduct the analyses become increasingly available. We have developed a network model and decision-support tool, WESTNet, to perform these tasks. Herein, WESTNet was used to analyze a model of California’s 2010 urban water network as well as the projected system for 2020 and 2030. Results for California’s ten hydrologic regions show that the average number of water sources per utility and total electricity consumption for supplying water will increase in spite of decreasing per-capita water consumption. Electricity intensity (kWh m-3) will increase in arid regions of the state due to shifts to alternative water sources such as indirect potable water reuse, desalination, and water transfers. In wetter, typically less populated, regions, reduced water demand for electricity-intensive supplies will decrease the electricity intensity of the water supply mix, though total electricity consumption will increase due to urban population growth. The results of this study provide a baseline for comparing current and potential innovations to California’s water system. The WESTNet tool can be applied to diverse water systems in any geographic region at a variety of scales to evaluate an array of network-dependent water-energy parameters.

[The role of supply-side characteristics of services in AIDS mortality in Mexico].

PubMed

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Serván-Mori, Edson; Silverman-Retana, Omar; Contreras-Loya, David; Romero-Martínez, Martín; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Uribe-Zúñiga, Patricia; Lozano, Rafael

2015-01-01

To document the association between supply-side determinants and AIDS mortality in Mexico between 2008 and 2013. We analyzed the SALVAR database (system for antiretroviral management, logistics and surveillance) as well as data collected through a nationally representative survey in health facilities. We used multivariate logit regression models to estimate the association between supply-side characteristics, namely management, training and experience of health care providers, and AIDS mortality, distinguishing early and non-early mortality and controlling for clinical indicators of the patients. Clinic status of the patients (initial CD4 and viral load) explain 44.4% of the variability of early mortality across clinics and 13.8% of the variability in non-early mortality. Supply-side characteristics increase explanatory power of the models by 16% in the case of early mortality, and 96% in the case of non-early mortality. Aspects of management and implementation of services contribute significantly to explain AIDS mortality in Mexico. Improving these aspects of the national program, can similarly improve its results.

Producer-retailer integrated EMQ system with machine breakdown, rework failures, and a discontinuous inventory issuing policy.

PubMed

Chiu, Singa Wang; Chen, Shin-Wei; Chiu, Yuan-Shyi Peter; Li, Ting-Wei

2016-01-01

This study develops two extended economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ)-based models with a discontinuous product issuing policy, random machine breakdown, and rework failures. Various real conditions in production processes, end-product delivery, and intra-supply chains such as a producer-retailer integrated scheme are examined. The first model incorporates a discontinuous multi-delivery policy into a prior work (Chiu et al. in Proc Inst Mech Eng B J Eng 223:183-194, 2009) in lieu of their continuous policy. Such an enhanced model can address situations in supply chain environments, where finished products are transported to outside retail stores (or customers). The second model further combines retailer's stock holding costs into the first model. This extended EMQ model is applicable in situations in present-day manufacturing firms where finished products are distributed to company's own retail stores (or regional sales offices) and stocked there for sale. Two aforementioned extended EMQ models are investigated, respectively. Mathematical modeling along with iterative algorithms are employed to derive the optimal production run times that minimize the expected total system costs, including the costs incurred in production units, transportation, and retail stores, for these integrated EMQ systems. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the practical application of the research results.

Coupling at Mauna Loa and Kīlauea by stress transfer in an asthenospheric melt layer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonnermann, Helge M.; Foster, James H.; Poland, Michael; Wolfe, Cecily J.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Miklius, Asta

2012-01-01

The eruptive activity at the neighbouring Hawaiian volcanoes, Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, is thought to be linked despite both having separate lithospheric magmatic plumbing systems. Over the past century, activity at the two volcanoes has been anti-correlated, which could reflect a competition for the same magma supply. Yet, during the past decade Kīlauea and Mauna Loa have inflated simultaneously. Linked activity between adjacent volcanoes in general remains controversial. Here we present a numerical model for the dynamical interaction between Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, where both volcanoes are coupled by pore-pressure diffusion, occurring within a common, asthenospheric magma supply system. The model is constrained by measurements of gas emission rates indicative of eruptive activity, and it is calibrated to match geodetic measurements of surface deformation at both volcanoes, inferred to reflect changes in shallow magma storage. Although an increase in the asthenospheric magma supply can cause simultaneous inflation of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, we find that eruptive activity at one volcano may inhibit eruptions of the adjacent volcano, if there is no concurrent increase in magma supply. We conclude that dynamic stress transfer by asthenospheric pore pressure is a viable mechanism for volcano coupling at Hawai‘i, and perhaps for adjacent volcanoes elsewhere.

EPA MODELING TOOLS FOR CAPTURE ZONE DELINEATION

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Office of Research and Development supports a step-wise modeling approach for design of wellhead protection areas for water supply wells. A web-based WellHEDSS (wellhead decision support system) is under development for determining when simple capture zones (e.g., centri...

[Relationship between water supply, sanitation, public health, and environment: elements for the formulation of a sanitary infrastructure planning model].

PubMed

Soares, Sérgio R A; Bernardes, Ricardo S; Netto, Oscar de M Cordeiro

2002-01-01

The understanding of sanitation infrastructure, public health, and environmental relations is a fundamental assumption for planning sanitation infrastructure in urban areas. This article thus suggests elements for developing a planning model for sanitation infrastructure. The authors performed a historical survey of environmental and public health issues related to the sector, an analysis of the conceptual frameworks involving public health and sanitation systems, and a systematization of the various effects that water supply and sanitation have on public health and the environment. Evaluation of these effects should guarantee the correct analysis of possible alternatives, deal with environmental and public health objectives (the main purpose of sanitation infrastructure), and provide the most reasonable indication of actions. The suggested systematization of the sanitation systems effects in each step of their implementation is an advance considering the association between the fundamental elements for formulating a planning model for sanitation infrastructure.

A Stochastic Simulator of a Blood Product Donation Environment with Demand Spikes and Supply Shocks

PubMed Central

An, Ming-Wen; Reich, Nicholas G.; Crawford, Stephen O.; Brookmeyer, Ron; Louis, Thomas A.; Nelson, Kenrad E.

2011-01-01

The availability of an adequate blood supply is a critical public health need. An influenza epidemic or another crisis affecting population mobility could create a critical donor shortage, which could profoundly impact blood availability. We developed a simulation model for the blood supply environment in the United States to assess the likely impact on blood availability of factors such as an epidemic. We developed a simulator of a multi-state model with transitions among states. Weekly numbers of blood units donated and needed were generated by negative binomial stochastic processes. The simulator allows exploration of the blood system under certain conditions of supply and demand rates, and can be used for planning purposes to prepare for sudden changes in the public's health. The simulator incorporates three donor groups (first-time, sporadic, and regular), immigration and emigration, deferral period, and adjustment factors for recruitment. We illustrate possible uses of the simulator by specifying input values for an -week flu epidemic, resulting in a moderate supply shock and demand spike (for example, from postponed elective surgeries), and different recruitment strategies. The input values are based in part on data from a regional blood center of the American Red Cross during –. Our results from these scenarios suggest that the key to alleviating deficit effects of a system shock may be appropriate timing and duration of recruitment efforts, in turn depending critically on anticipating shocks and rapidly implementing recruitment efforts. PMID:21814550

A stochastic simulator of a blood product donation environment with demand spikes and supply shocks.

PubMed

An, Ming-Wen; Reich, Nicholas G; Crawford, Stephen O; Brookmeyer, Ron; Louis, Thomas A; Nelson, Kenrad E

2011-01-01

The availability of an adequate blood supply is a critical public health need. An influenza epidemic or another crisis affecting population mobility could create a critical donor shortage, which could profoundly impact blood availability. We developed a simulation model for the blood supply environment in the United States to assess the likely impact on blood availability of factors such as an epidemic. We developed a simulator of a multi-state model with transitions among states. Weekly numbers of blood units donated and needed were generated by negative binomial stochastic processes. The simulator allows exploration of the blood system under certain conditions of supply and demand rates, and can be used for planning purposes to prepare for sudden changes in the public's health. The simulator incorporates three donor groups (first-time, sporadic, and regular), immigration and emigration, deferral period, and adjustment factors for recruitment. We illustrate possible uses of the simulator by specifying input values for an 8-week flu epidemic, resulting in a moderate supply shock and demand spike (for example, from postponed elective surgeries), and different recruitment strategies. The input values are based in part on data from a regional blood center of the American Red Cross during 1996-2005. Our results from these scenarios suggest that the key to alleviating deficit effects of a system shock may be appropriate timing and duration of recruitment efforts, in turn depending critically on anticipating shocks and rapidly implementing recruitment efforts.

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Seventh symposium on systems analysis in forest resources; 1997 May 28-31; Traverse City, MI.

Treesearch

J. Michael Vasievich; Jeremy S. Fried; Larry A. Leefers

2000-01-01

This international symposium included presentations by representatives from government, academic, and private institutions. Topics covered management objectives; information systems: modeling, optimization, simulation and decision support techniques; spatial methods; timber supply; and economic and operational analyses.

Opportunities and Challenges in the Design and Analysis of Biomass Supply Chains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lautala, Pasi T.; Hilliard, Michael R.; Webb, Erin

The biomass supply chain is one of the most critical elements of large-scale bioenergy production and in many cases a key barrier for procuring initial funding for new developments on specific energy crops. Most productions rely on complex transforming chains linked to feed and food markets. The term 'supply chain' covers various aspects from cultivation and harvesting of the biomass, to treatment, transportation, and storage. After energy conversion, the product must be delivered to final consumption, whether it is in the form of electricity, heat, or more tangible products, such as pellets and biofuels. Effective supply chains are of utmostmore » importance for bioenergy production, as biomass tends to possess challenging seasonal production cycles and low mass, energy and bulk densities. Additionally, the demand for final products is often also dispersed, further complicating the supply chain. The goal of this paper is to introduce key components of biomass supply chains, examples of related modeling applications, and if/how they address aspects related to environmental metrics and management. The paper will introduce a concept of integrated supply systems for sustainable biomass trade and the factors influencing the bioenergy supply chain landscape, including models that can be used to investigate the factors. Our paper will also cover various aspects of transportation logistics, ranging from alternative modal and multi-modal alternatives to introduction of support tools for transportation analysis. Lastly, gaps and challenges in supply chain research are identified and used to outline research recommendations for the future direction in this area of study.« less

Opportunities and Challenges in the Design and Analysis of Biomass Supply Chains

DOE PAGES

Lautala, Pasi T.; Hilliard, Michael R.; Webb, Erin; ...

2015-06-30

The biomass supply chain is one of the most critical elements of large-scale bioenergy production and in many cases a key barrier for procuring initial funding for new developments on specific energy crops. Most productions rely on complex transforming chains linked to feed and food markets. The term 'supply chain' covers various aspects from cultivation and harvesting of the biomass, to treatment, transportation, and storage. After energy conversion, the product must be delivered to final consumption, whether it is in the form of electricity, heat, or more tangible products, such as pellets and biofuels. Effective supply chains are of utmostmore » importance for bioenergy production, as biomass tends to possess challenging seasonal production cycles and low mass, energy and bulk densities. Additionally, the demand for final products is often also dispersed, further complicating the supply chain. The goal of this paper is to introduce key components of biomass supply chains, examples of related modeling applications, and if/how they address aspects related to environmental metrics and management. The paper will introduce a concept of integrated supply systems for sustainable biomass trade and the factors influencing the bioenergy supply chain landscape, including models that can be used to investigate the factors. Our paper will also cover various aspects of transportation logistics, ranging from alternative modal and multi-modal alternatives to introduction of support tools for transportation analysis. Lastly, gaps and challenges in supply chain research are identified and used to outline research recommendations for the future direction in this area of study.« less

Spatial analysis of private tanker water markets in Jordan: Using a hydroeconomic multi-agent model to simulate non-observed water transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim; Gawel, Erik; Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Talozi, Samer; Lachaut, Thibaut; Selby, Philip; Knox, Stephen; Gorelick, Steven; Tilmant, Amaury; Harou, Julien; Mustafa, Daanish; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Rajsekhar, Deepthi; Avisse, Nicolas; Zhang, Hua

2017-04-01

The country of Jordan is characterized by severe water scarcity and deficient public water supply networks. To address these issues, Jordan's water sector authorities have adopted a water rationing scheme implemented by interrupting piped water supply for several days per week. As in many arid countries around the world, this has led to the emergence of private markets of small-scale providers, delivering water via tanker trucks. On the one hand, these markets play a crucial role in meeting residential and commercial water demands by balancing the shortcomings of the public supply system. On the other hand, providers partially rely on illegal abstractions from rural ground and surface water sources, thereby circumventing regulatory efforts to conserve these resources. Private tanker water markets, therefore, provide a substantial contribution to consumer welfare while jeopardizing freshwater resource sustainability. Thus, a better understanding of these markets is of great importance for the formulation of policy interventions pursuing freshwater sustainability in a socially acceptable manner. Direct assessments of the size of these markets or their responses to policy interventions are, however, impeded by their partially illegal nature and the resulting lack of available information. To overcome this data collection challenge, we use a hydroeconomic multi-agent model developed in the Jordan Water Project to indirectly simulate country-wide tanker water market activities on the basis of demand and supply estimates. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. Finally, a spatial market algorithm matches rural supplies with users' demands across the 89 subdistricts of Jordan. This algorithm is parameterized with survey data we collected on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is successfully validated with available data on tanker truck registrations and tanker water prices. Model results reveal the spatial distribution of the private tanker markets' freshwater extractions, sales quantities, and economic impacts on different water user groups across all of Jordan. The results confirm the quantitative importance of these markets for consumer welfare. A dynamic coupling of farm agents with a country-wide groundwater model allows us to capture feedbacks between tanker water markets and groundwater levels. This enables us to assess policy impacts over time. Model analyses show that policies aiming to mitigate the negative sustainability impacts of private tanker water markets need to simultaneously address the shortcomings of the piped water supply system in order to avoid undue burdens on water users.

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: Part 2--greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts.

PubMed

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

2014-11-01

A study was conducted to compare the technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions. Part 2 of the study focused on determining the greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts of different pathways to stabilize major surface reservoir levels. Using a detailed electric grid model and taking into account impacts on the operation of the water supply infrastructure, the greenhouse gas emissions and effect on overall grid renewable penetration level was calculated for each water supply option portfolio that successfully secured water availability from Part 1. The effects on the energy signature of water supply infrastructure were found to be just as important as that of the fundamental processes for each option. Under historical (baseline) conditions, many option portfolios were capable of securing surface reservoir levels with a net neutral or negative effect on emissions and a benefit for renewable energy utilization. Under climate change augmented conditions, however, careful selection of the water supply option portfolio was required to prevent imposing major emissions increases for the system. Overall, this analysis provided quantitative insight into the tradeoffs associated with choosing different pathways for securing California's water supply. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

178: FORECASTING THE SHORTAGE OF NEUROSURGEONS IN IRAN USING A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL APPROACH

PubMed Central

Ezzatabadi, Mohammad Ranjbar; Zadeh, Sina Abdollah; Rafiei, Sima

2017-01-01

Background and aims Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus in an uncertain environment, long term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. The study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modelling. Methods System dynamic modelling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic and utilization variables. Along with, supply model incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as: attrition, migration and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases were analysed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics and disease prevalence during the time. Results It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization and medical capacity of the region. Conclusion Results of the study suggests that shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia.

PubMed

Abas, Zuraida Abal; Ramli, Mohamad Raziff; Desa, Mohamad Ishak; Saleh, Nordin; Hanafiah, Ainul Nadziha; Aziz, Nuraini; Abidin, Zaheera Zainal; Shibghatullah, Abdul Samad; Rahman, Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul; Musa, Haslinda

2017-08-18

The paper aims to provide an insight into the significance of having a simulation model to forecast the supply of registered nurses for health workforce planning policy using System Dynamics. A model is highly in demand to predict the workforce demand for nurses in the future, which it supports for complete development of a needs-based nurse workforce projection using Malaysia as a case study. The supply model consists of three sub-models to forecast the number of registered nurses for the next 15 years: training model, population model and Full Time Equivalent (FTE) model. In fact, the training model is for predicting the number of newly registered nurses after training is completed. Furthermore, the population model is for indicating the number of registered nurses in the nation and the FTE model is useful for counting the number of registered nurses with direct patient care. Each model is described in detail with the logical connection and mathematical governing equation for accurate forecasting. The supply model is validated using error analysis approach in terms of the root mean square percent error and the Theil inequality statistics, which is mportant for evaluating the simulation results. Moreover, the output of simulation results provides a useful insight for policy makers as a what-if analysis is conducted. Some recommendations are proposed in order to deal with the nursing deficit. It must be noted that the results from the simulation model will be used for the next stage of the Needs-Based Nurse Workforce projection project. The impact of this study is that it provides the ability for greater planning and policy making with better predictions.

Southern Ocean vertical iron fluxes; the ocean model effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schourup-Kristensen, V.; Haucke, J.; Losch, M. J.; Wolf-Gladrow, D.; Voelker, C. D.

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean plays a key role in the climate system, but commonly used large-scale ocean general circulation biogeochemical models give different estimates of current and future Southern Ocean net primary and export production. The representation of the Southern Ocean iron sources plays an important role for the modeled biogeochemistry. Studies of the iron supply to the surface mixed layer have traditionally focused on the aeolian and sediment contributions, but recent work has highlighted the importance of the vertical supply from below. We have performed a model study in which the biogeochemical model REcoM2 was coupled to two different ocean models, the Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) and the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) and analyzed the magnitude of the iron sources to the surface mixed layer from below in the two models. Our results revealed a remarkable difference in terms of mechanism and magnitude of transport. The mean iron supply from below in the Southern Ocean was on average four times higher in MITgcm than in FESOM and the dominant pathway was entrainment in MITgcm, whereas diffusion dominated in FESOM. Differences in the depth and seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer between the models affect on the vertical iron profile, the relative position of the base of the mixed layer and ferricline and thereby also on the iron fluxes. These differences contribute to differences in the phytoplankton composition in the two models, as well as in the timing of the onset of the spring bloom. The study shows that the choice of ocean model has a significant impact on the iron supply to the Southern Ocean mixed layer and thus on the modeled carbon cycle, with possible implications for model runs predicting the future carbon uptake in the region.

Patient-specific system for prognosis of surgical treatment outcomes of human cardiovascular system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golyadkina, Anastasiya A.; Kalinin, Aleksey A.; Kirillova, Irina V.; Kossovich, Elena L.; Kossovich, Leonid Y.; Menishova, Liyana R.; Polienko, Asel V.

2015-03-01

Object of study: Improvement of life quality of patients with high stroke risk ia the main goal for development of system for patient-specific modeling of cardiovascular system. This work is dedicated at increase of safety outcomes for surgical treatment of brain blood supply alterations. The objects of study are common carotid artery, internal and external carotid arteries and bulb. Methods: We estimated mechanical properties of carotid arteries tissues and patching materials utilized at angioplasty. We studied angioarchitecture features of arteries. We developed and clinically adapted computer biomechanical models, which are characterized by geometrical, physical and mechanical similarity with carotid artery in norm and with pathology (atherosclerosis, pathological tortuosity, and their combination). Results: Collaboration of practicing cardiovascular surgeons and specialists in the area of Mathematics and Mechanics allowed to successfully conduct finite-element modeling of surgical treatment taking into account various features of operation techniques and patching materials for a specific patient. Numerical experiment allowed to reveal factors leading to brain blood supply decrease and atherosclerosis development. Modeling of carotid artery reconstruction surgery for a specific patient on the basis of the constructed biomechanical model demonstrated the possibility of its application in clinical practice at approximation of numerical experiment to the real conditions.

Prospects for development of heat supply systems in high-rise districts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhila, Viktor; Solovyeva, Elena

2018-03-01

The article analyzes the main advantages and disadvantages of centralized and decentralized heat supply systems in high-rise districts. The main schemes of centralized heat supply systems are considered. They include centralized heat supply from boiler houses, centralized heat supply from autonomous heat sources, heat supply from roof boiler houses and door-to-door heating supply. For each of these variant, the gas distribution systems are considered and analyzed. These systems vary depending on the heat source location. For each of these systems, technical and economic indicators are taken into account, the analysis of which allows choosing the best option for districts where high-rise buildings predominate.

Hydroeconomic optimization of integrated water management and transfers under stochastic surface water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingju; Marques, Guilherme Fernandes; Lund, Jay R.

2015-05-01

Efficient reallocation and conjunctive operation of existing water supplies is gaining importance as demands grow, competitions among users intensify, and new supplies become more costly. This paper analyzes the roles and benefits of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and market-based water transfers in an integrated regional water system where agricultural and urban water users coordinate supply and demand management based on supply reliability and economic values of water. Agricultural users optimize land and water use for annual and perennial crops to maximize farm income, while urban users choose short-term and long-term water conservation actions to maintain reliability and minimize costs. The temporal order of these decisions is represented in a two-stage optimization that maximizes the net expected benefits of crop production, urban conservation and water management including conjunctive use and water transfers. Long-term decisions are in the first stage and short-term decisions are in a second stage based on probabilities of water availability events. Analytical and numerical analyses are made. Results show that conjunctive use and water transfers can substantially stabilize farmer's income and reduce system costs by reducing expensive urban water conservation or construction. Water transfers can equalize marginal values of water across users, while conjunctive use minimizes water marginal value differences in time. Model results are useful for exploring the integration of different water demands and supplies through water transfers, conjunctive use, and conservation, providing valuable insights for improving system management.

Monitoring apparatus and method for battery power supply

DOEpatents

Martin, Harry L.; Goodson, Raymond E.

1983-01-01

A monitoring apparatus and method are disclosed for monitoring and/or indicating energy that a battery power source has then remaining and/or can deliver for utilization purposes as, for example, to an electric vehicle. A battery mathematical model forms the basis for monitoring with a capacity prediction determined from measurement of the discharge current rate and stored battery parameters. The predicted capacity is used to provide a state-of-charge indication. Self-calibration over the life of the battery power supply is enacted through use of a feedback voltage based upon the difference between predicted and measured voltages to correct the battery mathematical model. Through use of a microprocessor with central information storage of temperature, current and voltage, system behavior is monitored, and system flexibility is enhanced.

46 CFR 108.467 - Water supply.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Water supply. 108.467 Section 108.467 Shipping COAST... Fire Extinguishing Systems Foam Extinguishing Systems § 108.467 Water supply. The water supply of a foam extinguishing system must not be the water supply of the fire main system on the unit unless when...

46 CFR 108.467 - Water supply.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Water supply. 108.467 Section 108.467 Shipping COAST... Fire Extinguishing Systems Foam Extinguishing Systems § 108.467 Water supply. The water supply of a foam extinguishing system must not be the water supply of the fire main system on the unit unless when...

46 CFR 108.467 - Water supply.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Water supply. 108.467 Section 108.467 Shipping COAST... Fire Extinguishing Systems Foam Extinguishing Systems § 108.467 Water supply. The water supply of a foam extinguishing system must not be the water supply of the fire main system on the unit unless when...

46 CFR 108.467 - Water supply.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Water supply. 108.467 Section 108.467 Shipping COAST... Fire Extinguishing Systems Foam Extinguishing Systems § 108.467 Water supply. The water supply of a foam extinguishing system must not be the water supply of the fire main system on the unit unless when...

46 CFR 108.467 - Water supply.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Water supply. 108.467 Section 108.467 Shipping COAST... Fire Extinguishing Systems Foam Extinguishing Systems § 108.467 Water supply. The water supply of a foam extinguishing system must not be the water supply of the fire main system on the unit unless when...

Hold-up power supply for flash memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, William E. (Inventor)

2004-01-01

A hold-up power supply for flash memory systems is provided. The hold-up power supply provides the flash memory with the power needed to temporarily operate when a power loss exists. This allows the flash memory system to complete any erasures and writes, and thus allows it to shut down gracefully. The hold-up power supply detects when a power loss on a power supply bus is occurring and supplies the power needed for the flash memory system to temporally operate. The hold-up power supply stores power in at least one capacitor. During normal operation, power from a high voltage supply bus is used to charge the storage capacitors. When a power supply loss is detected, the power supply bus is disconnected from the flash memory system. A hold-up controller controls the power flow from the storage capacitors to the flash memory system. The hold-up controller uses feedback to assure that the proper voltage is provided from the storage capacitors to the flash memory system. This power supplied by the storage capacitors allows the flash memory system to complete any erasures and writes, and thus allows the flash memory system to shut down gracefully.

Math Model for Naval Ship Handling Trainer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golovcsenko, Igor V.

The report describes the math model for an experimental ship handling trainer. The training task is that of a replenishment operation at sea. The model includes equations for ship dynamics of a destroyer, propeller-engine response times, ship separation, interaction effects between supply ship and destroyer, and outputs to a visual display system.…

Proactive Supply Chain Performance Management with Predictive Analytics

PubMed Central

Stefanovic, Nenad

2014-01-01

Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment. PMID:25386605

Proactive supply chain performance management with predictive analytics.

PubMed

Stefanovic, Nenad

2014-01-01

Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment.

Exploring How Technology Growth Limits Impact Optimal Carbon dioxide Mitigation Pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Energy system optimization models prescribe the optimal mix of technologies and fuels for meeting energy demands over a time horizon, subject to energy supplies, demands, and other constraints. When optimizing, these models will, to the extent allowed, favor the least cost combin...

What is known about community pharmacy supply of naloxone? A scoping review.

PubMed

Nielsen, Suzanne; Van Hout, Marie Claire

2016-06-01

There is growing evidence that expanded supply of take-home naloxone to prevent opioid overdose deaths is needed. Potential routes for expansion of naloxone provision include through community pharmacies. The aim of this scoping review is to establish what is known about community pharmacy supply of naloxone, in light of unique challenges and opportunities present in pharmacy settings. A scoping review methodology was employed using the six stage iterative process advocated by Arksey and O'Malley (2005) and Levac et al. (2010). Searches used key words and terms such as 'naloxone'; 'overdose prevention/drug overdose/opiate overdose'; 'community/retail pharmacy'; 'pharmacist/pharmacy/community pharmacy/pharmaceutical services'; 'professional practice/role'; 'community care'; attitude of health personnel'; 'training/supply/cost'. Appropriate search terms were selected for each database. After initial exploratory searches, comprehensive searches were conducted with Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Medline, Medline in Process, Embase, PsycINFO and CINAHL. Eligibility criteria centered on whether studies broadly described supply of naloxone in community pharmacy or had content relating to community pharmacy supply. The search identified 95 articles, of which 16 were related to pharmacy supply of naloxone. Five themes were presented after initial review of the data and consultation with the project Expert Group, and are; 'Pharmacists Perceptions of Naloxone: Facilitators and Barriers', 'Patient Populations: Identification and Recruitment', 'Supply Systems and Cost', 'Legal Issues', and 'Training of Pharmacists and Community Pharmacy Naloxone Recipients'. Findings from this scoping review suggest that community pharmacy based supply of take-home naloxone warrants the community pharmacy based route for distribution of take home naloxone provision warrants further consideration and development. Existing strengths include a range of established supply models, and training curricula, few direct concerns regarding legal liability of pharmacists in the supply of naloxone (once legal supply systems have been established) and the wide range of potential identifiable patient populations, which include pain patients that may not be in contact with existing naloxone supply programmes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

PubMed

Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core

PubMed Central

Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201

Combined effects of dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids and parasite exposure on eicosanoid-related gene expression in an invertebrate model.

PubMed

Schlotz, Nina; Roulin, Anne; Ebert, Dieter; Martin-Creuzburg, Dominik

2016-11-01

Eicosanoids derive from essential polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and play crucial roles in immunity, development, and reproduction. However, potential links between dietary PUFA supply and eicosanoid biosynthesis are poorly understood, especially in invertebrates. Using Daphnia magna and its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa as model system, we studied the expression of genes coding for key enzymes in eicosanoid biosynthesis and of genes related to oogenesis in response to dietary arachidonic acid and eicosapentaenoic acid in parasite-exposed and non-exposed animals. Gene expression related to cyclooxygenase activity was especially responsive to the dietary PUFA supply and parasite challenge, indicating a role for prostanoid eicosanoids in immunity and reproduction. Vitellogenin gene expression was induced upon parasite exposure in all food treatments, suggesting infection-related interference with the host's reproductive system. Our findings highlight the potential of dietary PUFA to modulate the expression of key enzymes involved in eicosanoid biosynthesis and reproduction and thus underpin the idea that the dietary PUFA supply can influence invertebrate immune functions and host-parasite interactions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Caldwell, P.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S.; Huber-Lee, A.; Madden, N.

2013-09-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model which considers regional trends in both water supply and demand. A snapshot of contemporary annual water demand is compared against different water supply regimes, including current average supplies, current extreme-year supplies, and projected future average surface water flows under a changing climate. In addition, we investigate the contributions of different water demand sectors to current water stress. On average, water supplies are stressed, meaning that demands for water outstrip natural supplies in over 9% of the 2103 watersheds examined. These watersheds rely on reservoir storage, conveyance systems, and groundwater to meet current water demands. Overall, agriculture is the major demand-side driver of water stress in the US, whereas municipal stress is isolated to southern California. Water stress introduced by cooling water demands for power plants is punctuated across the US, indicating that a single power plant has the potential to stress water supplies at the watershed scale. On the supply side, watersheds in the western US are particularly sensitive to low flow events and projected long-term shifts in flow driven by climate change. The WaSSI results imply that not only are water resources in the southwest in particular at risk, but that there are also potential vulnerabilities to specific sectors, even in the ‘water-rich’ southeast.

Integration of three echelon supply chain (supplier-manufacturer-distributor-drop shipper) with permissible delay in payment and penalty contract

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, M. F.; Suparno

2018-04-01

Supply Chain Management (SCM) has to be considered in the company in order to improve the sustainability and competitiveness. SCM executed to integrating any companies on the supply chain in a way of coordinating the flow of goods, information, and financial. Permissible delay in payment is one of the coordination ways with allowing the costumers delay the payments to a vendor in some certain periods without any interest charges. In the supply chain system, drop-shipping player already familiar in this era. In drop-shipping internet retailing, the supplier will hold supplies and also carry out physical distribution service on behalf of drop-shipper. Drop-shipper will just focus on selling, on the other hand, their supplier will be responsible for the physical process. Generally, drop-shipper have information of the customer demands better than the distributor. But, it is also unrare when the drop-shipper send the estimation of demands which bigger than their own estimation in order to maximize their own interest, so they hope supplies of the distributor will always enough to accommodate their demands. Contributions in this research will be focused on integration of three echelons supply chain, which are the supplier, manufacturer, distributor, and drop-shipper. With considering delay in payment on first and second echelons, and also the contract penalty on third echelon. The problem on this research will be modeled in some kind of cases which can represent the problem of real supply chain system. Sensitivity analysis will be done on certain significant variables toward the changes of total supply chain cost. Coordination with delay in payment success to integrate supply chain. Contract penalty plan success to maintain the profit of distributor and drop-shipper.

Cost-effective practices in the blood service sector.

PubMed

Katsaliaki, Korina

2008-05-01

The objective of this study is to recommend alternative policies, which are tested on a computer simulation model, towards a more cost-effective management of the blood supply chain in the UK. With the use of primary and secondary data from the National Blood Service (NBS) and the supplied hospitals, statistical analysis is conducted and a detailed discrete event simulation model of a vertical part of the UK supply chain of blood products is developed to test and identify good ordering, inventory and distribution practices. Fewer outdates, group substitutions, shortages and deliveries could be achieved by blood banks: holding stock of rare blood groups of red blood cells (RBC), having a second routine delivery per weekday, exercising a more insensitive ordering point for RBC, reducing the total crossmatch release period to less than 1.5 days, increasing the transfusion-to-crossmatch ratio to 70%, adhering to an age-based issuing of orders, holding RBC stock of a weighted average of approximately 4 days. The blood supply simulation model can offer useful pieces of advice to the stakeholders of the examined system which leads to cost reductions and increased safety. Moreover, it provides a great range of experimental capabilities in a risk-free environment.

Forecasting jobs in the supply chain for investments in residential energy efficiency retrofits in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fobair, Richard C., II

This research presents a model for forecasting the numbers of jobs created in the energy efficiency retrofit (EER) supply chain resulting from an investment in upgrading residential buildings in Florida. This investigation examined material supply chains stretching from mining to project installation for three product types: insulation, windows/doors, and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Outputs from the model are provided for the project, sales, manufacturing, and mining level. The model utilizes reverse-estimation to forecast the numbers of jobs that result from an investment. Reverse-estimation is a process that deconstructs a total investment into its constituent parts. In this research, an investment is deconstructed into profit, overhead, and hard costs for each level of the supply chain and over multiple iterations of inter-industry exchanges. The model processes an investment amount, the type of work and method of contracting into a prediction of the number of jobs created. The deconstruction process utilizes data from the U.S. Economic Census. At each supply chain level, the cost of labor is reconfigured into full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs (i.e. equivalent to 40 hours per week for 52 weeks) utilizing loaded labor rates and a typical employee mix. The model is sensitive to adjustable variables, such as percentage of work performed per type of product, allocation of worker time per skill level, annual hours for FTE calculations, wage rate, and benefits. This research provides several new insights into job creation. First, it provides definitions that can be used for future research on jobs in supply chains related to energy efficiency. Second, it provides a methodology for future investigators to calculate jobs in a supply chain resulting from an investment in energy efficiency upgrades to a building. The methodology used in this research is unique because it examines gross employment at the sub-industry level for specific commodities. Most research on employment examines the net employment change (job creation less job destruction) at levels for regions, industries, and the aggregate economy. Third, it provides a forecast of the numbers of jobs for an investment in energy efficiency over the entire supply chain for the selected industries and the job factors for major levels of the supply chain.

Decision Support System for Reservoir Management and Operation in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navar, D. A.

2016-12-01

Africa is currently experiencing a surge in dam construction for flood control, water supply and hydropower production, but ineffective reservoir management has caused problems in the region, such as water shortages, flooding and loss of potential hydropower generation. Our research aims to remedy ineffective reservoir management by developing a novel Decision Support System(DSS) to equip water managers with a technical planning tool based on the state of the art in hydrological sciences. The DSS incorporates a climate forecast model, a hydraulic model of the watershed, and an optimization model to effectively plan for the operation of a system of cascade large-scale reservoirs for hydropower production, while treating water supply and flood control as constraints. Our team will use the newly constructed hydropower plants in the Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia as the test case. Using the basic HIDROTERM software developed in Brazil, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) utilizes a combination of linear programing (LP) and non-linear programming (NLP) in conjunction with real time hydrologic and energy demand data to optimize the monthly and daily operations of the reservoir system. We compare the DSS model results with the current reservoir operating policy used by the water managers of that region. We also hope the DSS will eliminate the current dangers associated with the mismanagement of large scale water resources projects in Africa.

ETV Report: Siemens Model V-40R-A150 Open Channel UV System

EPA Science Inventory

Verification testing of the Siemens Barrier Sunlight V-40R-A150 UV System was completed at the UV Validation and Research Center of New York (UV Center), located in Johnstown, NY. The V-40R System supplied by Siemens utilizes 40 high-output, low-pressure amalgam lamps, oriented ...

A Conceptual Framework for Analysis of Communication in Rural Social Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Axinn, George H.

This paper describes a five-component system with ten major internal linkages which may be used as a model for studying information flow in any rural agricultural social system. The major components are production, supply, marketing, research, and extension education. In addition, definitions are offered of the crucial variables affecting…

PARTICLE ACCELERATOR DIVISION SUMMARY REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 1958 THROUGH MAY 1959

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Work in the division is summarized in the areas of theoretical studies, model magnet studies, ring magnet vacuum chamber, vacuum pumping system, ring magnet power supply, radio-frequency system, injection system, theoretical studies on radial motion through the linac, outgassing, and ferrite bonding. (For preceding period see ANL-5956.) (W.D.M.)

FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT FOR FORESTRY BIOFUEL STATEWIDE COLLABORATION CENTER (MICHIGAN)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaCourt, Donna M.; Miller, Raymond O.; Shonnard, David R.

A team composed of scientists from Michigan State University (MSU) and Michigan Technological University (MTU) assembled to better understand, document, and improve systems for using forest-based biomass feedstocks in the production of energy products within Michigan. Work was funded by a grant (DE-EE-0000280) from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and was administered by the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC). The goal of the project was to improve the forest feedstock supply infrastructure to sustainably provide woody biomass for biofuel production in Michigan over the long-term. Work was divided into four broad areas with associated objectives: • TASK A: Developmore » a Forest-Based Biomass Assessment for Michigan – Define forest-based feedstock inventory, availability, and the potential of forest-based feedstock to support state and federal renewable energy goals while maintaining current uses. • TASK B: Improve Harvesting, Processing and Transportation Systems – Identify and develop cost, energy, and carbon efficient harvesting, processing and transportation systems. • TASK C: Improve Forest Feedstock Productivity and Sustainability – Identify and develop sustainable feedstock production systems through the establishment and monitoring of a statewide network of field trials in forests and energy plantations. • TASK D: Engage Stakeholders – Increase understanding of forest biomass production systems for biofuels by a broad range of stakeholders. The goal and objectives of this research and development project were fulfilled with key model deliverables including: 1) The Forest Biomass Inventory System (Sub-task A1) of feedstock inventory and availability and, 2) The Supply Chain Model (Sub-task B2). Both models are vital to Michigan’s forest biomass industry and support forecasting delivered cost, as well as carbon and energy balance. All of these elements are important to facilitate investor, operational and policy decisions. All other sub-tasks supported the development of these two tools either directly or by building out supporting information in the forest biomass supply chain. Outreach efforts have, and are continuing to get these user friendly models and information to decision makers to support biomass feedstock supply chain decisions across the areas of biomass inventory and availability, procurement, harvest, forwarding, transportation and processing. Outreach will continue on the project website at http://www.michiganforestbiofuels.org/ and http://www.michiganwoodbiofuels.org/« less

Efficiency optimization of wireless power transmission systems for active capsule endoscopes.

PubMed

Zhiwei, Jia; Guozheng, Yan; Jiangpingping; Zhiwu, Wang; Hua, Liu

2011-10-01

Multipurpose active capsule endoscopes have drawn considerable attention in recent years, but these devices continue to suffer from energy limitations. A wireless power supply system is regarded as a practical way to overcome the power shortage problem in such devices. This paper focuses on the efficiency optimization of a wireless energy supply system with size and safety constraints. A mathematical programming model in which these constraints are considered is proposed for transmission efficiency, optimal frequency and current, and overall system effectiveness. To verify the feasibility of the proposed method, we use a wireless active capsule endoscope as an illustrative example. The achieved efficiency can be regarded as an index for evaluating the system, and the proposed approach can be used to direct the design of transmitting and receiving coils.

A framework for identifying water management typologies for agent based modeling of water resources and its application in the Boise River Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, K. E.; Flores, A. N.; Hillis, V.; Moroney, J.; Schneider, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling the management of water resources necessitates incorporation of complex social and hydrologic dynamics. Simulation of these socio-ecological systems requires characterization of the decision-making process of relevant actors, the mechanisms through which they exert control on the biophysical system, their ability to react and adapt to regional environmental conditions, and the plausible behaviors in response to changes in those conditions. Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool in simulating these complex adaptive systems because they can dynamically couple hydrological models and the behavior of decision making actors. ABMs can provide a flexible, integrated framework that can represent multi-scale interactions, and the heterogeneity of information networks and sources. However, the variability in behavior of water management actors across systems makes characterizing agent behaviors and relationships challenging. Agent typologies, or agent functional types (AFTs), group together individuals and/or agencies with similar functional roles, management objectives, and decision-making strategies. AFTs have been used to represent archetypal land managers in the agricultural and forestry sectors in large-scale socio-economic system models. A similar typology of water actors could simplify the representation of water management across river basins, and increase transferability and scaling of resulting ABMs. Here, we present a framework for identifying and classifying major water actors and show how we will link an ABM of water management to a regional hydrologic model in a western river basin. The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho is an interesting setting to apply our AFT framework because of the diverse stakeholders and associated management objectives which include managing urban growth pressures and water supply in the face of climate change. Precipitation in the upper basin supplies 90% of the surface water used in the basin, thus managers of the reservoir system (located in the upper basin) must balance flood control for the metropolitan area with water supply for downstream agricultural and hydropower use. Identifying dominant water management typologies that include state and federal agencies will increase the transferability of water management ABMs in the western US.

Assessment of RFID Investment in the Military Logistics Systems Through The Cost of Ownership Model (COO)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

managers seek ways to increase the efficiency of their organizations by improving their logistics operations . According to Logistics Today journal ...S. (2009). RFID Adoption by Indian Retailers: An Exploratory Study. The Icfai University Journal of Supply Chain Management , 6 (1), 60-77...and will continue to be one of the hot topics in operations and supply chain management . It will potentially receive widespread adoption in the long

A simulation-based approach for designing effective field-sampling programs to evaluate contamination risk of groundwater supplies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordqvist, R.; Voss, C.I.

1996-01-01

An approach to model discrimination and network design for evaluation of groundwater contamination risk is proposed and demonstrated by application to a site in a glaciofluvial aquifer in Sweden. The approach consists of first hypothesizing alternative conceptual models of hydrogeology at the site on the basis of both quantitative data and qualitative information. The conceptual models are then expressed as two-dimensional numerical models of groundwater flow and solute transport, and model attributes controlling risk to the water supply are determined by simulation. Model predictions of response to a specific field test are made with each model that affects risk. Regions for effective measurement networks are then identified. Effective networks are those that capture sufficient information to determine which of the hypothesized models best describes the system with a minimum of measurement points. For the example site in Sweden, the network is designed such that important system parameters may be accurately estimated at the same time as model discrimination is carried out. The site in Vansbro, Sweden, consists of a water-supply well in an esker separated (by 300m) from a wood preservation and treatment area on the esker flank by only a narrow inlet of a bordering stream. Application of the above-described risk analysis shows that, of all the hydrologic controls and parameters in the groundwater system, the only factor that controls the potential migration of wood-treatment contaminants to the well is whether the inlet's bed is pervious, creating a hydraulic barrier to lateral contaminant transport. Furthermore, the analysis localizes an area near the end of the inlet wherein the most effective measurements of drawdown would be made to discriminate between a permeable and impermeable bed. The location of this optimal area is not obvious prior to application of the above methodology.

Hydrological analysis of single and dual storage systems for stormwater harvesting.

PubMed

Brodie, I M

2008-01-01

As stormwater flows are intermittent, the requirement to store urban runoff is important to the design of a stormwater re-use scheme. In many urban areas, the space available to provide storage is limited and thus the need to optimise the storage volume becomes critical. This paper will highlight the advantages and disadvantages of two different approaches of providing storage: 1) a single shallow storage (0.5 m depth) in which stormwater capture and a balanced release to supply users is provided by the one unit; and 2) a dual system in which the functions of stormwater capture and supply release are provided by two separate deeper storage units (2 m depth). The comparison between the two strategies is supported by water balance modelling assessing the supply reliability and storage volume requirements for both options. Above a critical volumetric capacity, the supply yield of a dual storage system is higher than that from a single storage of equal volume mainly because of a smaller assumed footprint. The single storage exhibited greater evaporation loss and is more susceptible to algae blooms due to long water residence times. Results of the comparison provide guidance to the design of more efficient storages associated with stormwater harvesting systems. Copyright IWA Publishing 2008.

The effect of waiting times on demand and supply for elective surgery: Evidence from Italy.

PubMed

Riganti, Andrea; Siciliani, Luigi; Fiorio, Carlo V

2017-09-01

Waiting times are a major policy concern in publicly funded health systems across OECD countries. Economists have argued that, in the presence of excess demand, waiting times act as nonmonetary prices to bring demand for and supply of health care in equilibrium. Using administrative data disaggregated by region and surgical procedure over 2010-2014 in Italy, we estimate demand and supply elasticities with respect to waiting times. We employ linear regression models with first differences and instrumental variables to deal with endogeneity of waiting times. We find that demand is inelastic to waiting times while supply is more elastic. Estimates of demand elasticity are between -0.15 to -0.24. Our results have implications on the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing supply and their ability to reduce waiting times. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

2009-12-01

A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions incorporating crop distribution, evapotranspiration rates, irrigation efficiencies, and crop prices are used to develop water demand-price functions for agricultural water users. Demand functions for municipal and industrial water users are also developed. Recent applications of the integrated model have focused on the hydrologic and economic impacts of demand management alternatives, including large-scale canal lining conservation measures, and market-based water trading between canal diverters and groundwater pumpers. A supply management alternative being investigated involves revising reservoir rule curves to compensate for climate change impacts on timing of reservoir filling.

A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2016-01-01

Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies. This distinction between the two policies was not apparent using a traditional noncoupled model.

The NASA Human Space Flight Supply Chain, Current and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar

2007-01-01

The current NASA Human Space Flight transportation system, the Space Shuttle, is scheduled for final flight in 2010. The Exploration initiative will create a new capability with a combination of existing systems and new flight and ground elements. To fully understand and act on the implications of such change it is necessary to understand what, how, when and where such changes occur and more importantly, how all these interact. This paper presents Human Space Flight, with an emphasis on KSC Launch and Landing, as a Supply Chain of both information and materials. A supply chain methodology for understanding the flow of information and materials is presented. Further, modeling and simulation projects funded by the Exploration initiative to understand the NASA Exploration Supply Chain are explained. Key concepts and their purpose, including the Enterprise, Locations, Physical and Organizational Functional Units, Products, and Resources, are explained. It is shown that the art, science and perspective of Supply Chain Management is not only applicable to such a government & contractor operation, it is also an invaluable approach for understanding, focusing improvement and growth. It is shown that such commercial practice applies to Human Space Flight and is invaluable towards one day creating routine, affordable access to and from space.

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby; Liu, Lu; Huang, Maoyi; Li, Hong-Yi; Tesfa, Teklu

2017-05-01

Realistic representations of sectoral water withdrawals and consumptive demands and their allocation to surface and groundwater sources are important for improving modeling of the integrated water cycle. To inform future model development, we enhance the representation of water management in a regional Earth system (ES) model with a spatially distributed allocation of sectoral water demands simulated by a regional integrated assessment (IA) model to surface and groundwater systems. The integrated modeling framework (IA-ES) is evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow and sectoral supply deficit in major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S, which differ from ES studies looking at water storage variations. Decreases in historical supply deficit are used as metrics to evaluate IA-ES model improvement in representating the complex sectoral human activities for assessing future adaptation and mitigation strategies. We also assess the spatial changes in both regulated flow and unmet demands, for irrigation and nonirrigation sectors, resulting from the individual and combined additions of groundwater and return flow modules. Results show that groundwater use has a pronounced regional and sectoral effect by reducing water supply deficit. The effects of sectoral return flow exhibit a clear east-west contrast in the hydrologic patterns, so the return flow component combined with the IA sectoral demands is a major driver for spatial redistribution of water resources and water deficits in the US. Our analysis highlights the need for spatially distributed sectoral representation of water management to capture the regional differences in interbasin redistribution of water resources and deficits.

An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

Treesearch

James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2006-01-01

Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock...

The eGo grid model: An open-source and open-data based synthetic medium-voltage grid model for distribution power supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amme, J.; Pleßmann, G.; Bühler, J.; Hülk, L.; Kötter, E.; Schwaegerl, P.

2018-02-01

The increasing integration of renewable energy into the electricity supply system creates new challenges for distribution grids. The planning and operation of distribution systems requires appropriate grid models that consider the heterogeneity of existing grids. In this paper, we describe a novel method to generate synthetic medium-voltage (MV) grids, which we applied in our DIstribution Network GeneratOr (DINGO). DINGO is open-source software and uses freely available data. Medium-voltage grid topologies are synthesized based on location and electricity demand in defined demand areas. For this purpose, we use GIS data containing demand areas with high-resolution spatial data on physical properties, land use, energy, and demography. The grid topology is treated as a capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) combined with a local search metaheuristics. We also consider the current planning principles for MV distribution networks, paying special attention to line congestion and voltage limit violations. In the modelling process, we included power flow calculations for validation. The resulting grid model datasets contain 3608 synthetic MV grids in high resolution, covering all of Germany and taking local characteristics into account. We compared the modelled networks with real network data. In terms of number of transformers and total cable length, we conclude that the method presented in this paper generates realistic grids that could be used to implement a cost-optimised electrical energy system.

Pricing Models for Dual-channel Reverse Supply Chain Considering Regional Differences under “Internet Recycling” Mode in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Di; Li, Peng; Chen, Juhong

2018-01-01

In recent years, the Internet technology has been deeply influencing recycling industry to make it more intelligent and interconnected. However, most existing papers on “Internet Recycling” neglected the problem of pricing strategy under online and offline channels for different levels of recyclers. Moreover, the effect of regional differences has been emphasized a lot in dual-channel forward supply chain, but recycling field has seldom been concerned about it. In this paper, a recycling system consisting of one recycling center and several third-party recyclers (TPR) was investigated based on traditional mode and dual-channel mode. The dual-channel reverse supply chain model is transformed from traditional mode by the introduction of online channel. It involves two recycling modes, as recycling centre for online recovery and “Recycling center+TPR” for offline recovery. By establishing pricing strategies based on Stackelberg game model, the impacts of regional differences were analysed. Finally, numerical analysis was given to illustrate the effectiveness of the pricing mechanisms and strategies.

Three stage trade credit policy in a three-layer supply chain-a production-inventory model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

2014-09-01

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal replenishment lot size of supplier and optimal production rate of manufacturer under three levels of trade credit policy for supplier-manufacturer-retailer supply chain. The supplier provides a fixed credit period to settle the accounts to the manufacturer, while the manufacturer gives a fixed credit period to settle the account to the retailer and the retailer, in turn, also offers a credit period to each of its customers to settle the accounts. We assume that the supplier supplies the raw material to the manufacturer and sends back the defective raw materials to the outside supplier after completion of inspection at one lot with a sales price. The system always produces good items in the model. Also, we consider the idle times of supplier and manufacturer. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the behaviour and application of the model with graphical simulation.

The coordinating contracts of supply chain in a fuzzy decision environment.

PubMed

Sang, Shengju

2016-01-01

The rapid change of the product life cycle is making the parameters of the supply chain models more and more uncertain. Therefore, we consider the coordination mechanisms between one manufacturer and one retailer in a fuzzy decision marking environment, where the parameters of the models can be forecasted and expressed as the triangular fuzzy variables. The centralized decision-making system, two types of supply chain contracts, namely, the revenue sharing contract and the return contract are proposed. To obtain their optimal policies, the fuzzy set theory is adopted to solve these fuzzy models. Finally, three numerical examples are provided to analyze the impacts of the fuzziness of the market demand, retail price and salvage value of the product on the optimal solutions in two contracts. It shows that in order to obtain more fuzzy expected profits the retailer and the manufacturer should seek as low fuzziness of demand, high fuzziness of the retail price and the salvage value as possible in both contracts.

Closed-loop supply chain models with considering the environmental impact.

PubMed

Mohajeri, Amir; Fallah, Mohammad

2014-01-01

Global warming and climate changes created by large scale emissions of greenhouse gases are a worldwide concern. Due to this, the issue of green supply chain management has received more attention in the last decade. In this study, a closed-loop logistic concept which serves the purposes of recycling, reuse, and recovery required in a green supply chain is applied to integrate the environmental issues into a traditional logistic system. Here, we formulate a comprehensive closed-loop model for the logistics planning considering profitability and ecological goals. In this way, we can achieve the ecological goal reducing the overall amount of CO2 emitted from journeys. Moreover, the profitability criterion can be supported in the cyclic network with the minimum costs and maximum service level. We apply three scenarios and develop problem formulations for each scenario corresponding to the specified regulations and investigate the effect of the regulation on the preferred transport mode and the emissions. To validate the models, some numerical experiments are worked out and a comparative analysis is investigated.

An Expert System for Managing Storage Space Constraints Aboard United States Naval Vessels

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-01

aiad recommilts finher research to egabliab the CODU Wnuafa. 20. Dl$TRUUTWAVA ABiITY OF ABSTRACT 21Z ABSTRACT SECURI11TY CLASS011CATIO OU AM*kt~t K...concludes that the use of an expert system would provide valuable assistance to the afloat Supply Officer and recommends further research to establish the...APPLICABLE FORECASTING MODELS . .................... 20 C. APPLICABLE OPERATIONS RESEARCH MODELS .o.......24 IV. AN EXPER SYSTEM: VARIABLES TO CONSIDER

41 CFR 101-30.603 - GSA Supply Catalog.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.6-GSA Section of the Federal Supply Catalog § 101-30.603 GSA Supply Catalog. (a) The GSA Supply... GSA Supply Catalog contains all necessary information for ordering from the GSA Federal Supply Service...

41 CFR 101-30.603 - GSA Supply Catalog.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.6-GSA Section of the Federal Supply Catalog § 101-30.603 GSA Supply Catalog. (a) The GSA Supply... GSA Supply Catalog contains all necessary information for ordering from the GSA Federal Supply Service...

41 CFR 101-30.603 - GSA Supply Catalog.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.6-GSA Section of the Federal Supply Catalog § 101-30.603 GSA Supply Catalog. (a) The GSA Supply... GSA Supply Catalog contains all necessary information for ordering from the GSA Federal Supply Service...

41 CFR 101-30.603 - GSA Supply Catalog.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.6-GSA Section of the Federal Supply Catalog § 101-30.603 GSA Supply Catalog. (a) The GSA Supply... GSA Supply Catalog contains all necessary information for ordering from the GSA Federal Supply Service...

41 CFR 101-30.603 - GSA Supply Catalog.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.6-GSA Section of the Federal Supply Catalog § 101-30.603 GSA Supply Catalog. (a) The GSA Supply... GSA Supply Catalog contains all necessary information for ordering from the GSA Federal Supply Service...

Solar Thermal Upper Stage Cryogen System Engineering Checkout Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, A. D; Cady, E. C.; Jenkins, D. S.

1999-01-01

The Solar Thermal Upper Stage technology (STUSTD) program is a solar thermal propulsion technology program cooperatively sponsored by a Boeing led team and by NASA MSFC. A key element of its technology program is development of a liquid hydrogen (LH2) storage and supply system which employs multi-layer insulation, liquid acquisition devices, active and passive thermodynamic vent systems, and variable 40W tank heaters to reliably provide near constant pressure H2 to a solar thermal engine in the low-gravity of space operation. The LH2 storage and supply system is designed to operate as a passive, pressure fed supply system at a constant pressure of about 45 psia. During operation of the solar thermal engine over a small portion of the orbit the LH2 storage and supply system propulsively vents through the enjoy at a controlled flowrate. During the long coast portion of the orbit, the LH2 tank is locked up (unvented). Thus, all of the vented H2 flow is used in the engine for thrust and none is wastefully vented overboard. The key to managing the tank pressure and therefore the H2 flow to the engine is to manage and balance the energy flow into the LH2 tank with the MLI and tank heaters with the energy flow out of the LH2 tank through the vented H2 flow. A moderate scale (71 cu ft) LH2 storage and supply system was installed and insulated at the NASA MSFC Test Area 300. The operation of the system is described in this paper. The test program for the LH2 system consisted of two parts: 1) a series of engineering tests to characterize the performance of the various components in the system: and 2) a 30-day simulation of a complete LEO and GEO transfer mission. This paper describes the results of the engineering tests, and correlates these results with analytical models used to design future advanced Solar Orbit Transfer Vehicles.

Modelling and genetic algorithm based optimisation of inverse supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bányai, T.

2009-04-01

The design and control of recycling systems of products with environmental risk have been discussed in the world already for a long time. The main reasons to address this subject are the followings: reduction of waste volume, intensification of recycling of materials, closing the loop, use of less resource, reducing environmental risk [1, 2]. The development of recycling systems is based on the integrated solution of technological and logistic resources and know-how [3]. However the financial conditions of recycling systems is partly based on the recovery, disassembly and remanufacturing options of the used products [4, 5, 6], but the investment and operation costs of recycling systems can be characterised with high logistic costs caused by the geographically wide collection system with more collection level and a high number of operation points of the inverse supply chain. The reduction of these costs is a popular area of the logistics researches. These researches include the design and implementation of comprehensive environmental waste and recycling program to suit business strategies (global system), design and supply all equipment for production line collection (external system), design logistics process to suit the economical and ecological requirements (external system) [7]. To the knowledge of the author, there has been no research work on supply chain design problems that purpose is the logistics oriented optimisation of inverse supply chain in the case of non-linear total cost function consisting not only operation costs but also environmental risk cost. The antecedent of this research is, that the author has taken part in some research projects in the field of closed loop economy ("Closing the loop of electr(on)ic products and domestic appliances from product planning to end-of-life technologies), environmental friendly disassembly (Concept for logistical and environmental disassembly technologies) and design of recycling systems of household appliances (Recycling of household appliances with emphasis on reuse options). The purpose of this paper is the presentation of a possible method for avoiding the unnecessary environmental risk and landscape use through unprovoked large supply chain of collection systems of recycling processes. In the first part of the paper the author presents the mathematical model of recycling related collection systems (applied especially for wastes of electric and electronic products) and in the second part of the work a genetic algorithm based optimisation method will be demonstrated, by the aid of which it is possible to determine the optimal structure of the inverse supply chain from the point of view economical, ecological and logistic objective functions. The model of the inverse supply chain is based on a multi-level, hierarchical collection system. In case of this static model it is assumed that technical conditions are permanent. The total costs consist of three parts: total infrastructure costs, total material handling costs and environmental risk costs. The infrastructure-related costs are dependent only on the specific fixed costs and the specific unit costs of the operation points (collection, pre-treatment, treatment, recycling and reuse plants). The costs of warehousing and transportation are represented by the material handling related costs. The most important factors determining the level of environmental risk cost are the number of out of time recycled (treated or reused) products, the number of supply chain objects and the length of transportation routes. The objective function is the minimization of the total cost taking into consideration the constraints. However a lot of research work discussed the design of supply chain [8], but most of them concentrate on linear cost functions. In the case of this model non-linear cost functions were used. The non-linear cost functions and the possible high number of objects of the inverse supply chain leaded to the problem of choosing a possible solution method. By the aid of analytical methods, the problem can not be solved, so a genetic algorithm based heuristic optimisation method was chosen to find the optimal solution. The input parameters of the optimisation are the followings: specific fixed, unit and environmental risk costs of the collection points of the inverse supply chain, specific warehousing and transportation costs and environmental risk costs of transportation. The output parameters are the followings: the number of objects in the different hierarchical levels of the collection system, infrastructure costs, logistics costs and environmental risk costs from used infrastructures, transportation and number of products recycled out of time. The next step of the research work was the application of the above mentioned method. The developed application makes it possible to define the input parameters of the real system, the graphical view of the chosen optimal solution in the case of the given input parameters, graphical view of the cost structure of the optimal solution, determination of the parameters of the algorithm (e.g. number of individuals, operators and termination conditions). The sensibility analysis of the objective function and the test results showed that the structure of the inverse supply chain depends on the proportion of the specific costs. Especially the proportion of the specific environmental risk costs influences the structure of the system and the number of objects at each hierarchical level of the collection system. The sensitivity analysis of the total cost function was performed in three cases. In the first case the effect of the proportion of specific infrastructure and logistics costs were analysed. If the infrastructure costs are significantly lower than the total costs of warehousing and transportation, then almost all objects of the first hierarchical level of the collection (collection directly from the users) were set up. In the other case of the proportion of costs the first level of the collection is not necessary, because it is replaceable by the more expensive transportation directly to the objects of the second or lower hierarchical level. In the second case the effect of the proportion of the logistics and environmental risk costs were analysed. In this case the analysis resulted to the followings: if the logistics costs are significantly higher than the total environmental risk costs, then because of the constant infrastructure costs the preference of logistics operations depends on the proportion of the environmental risk costs caused by of out of time recycled products and transportation. In the third case of the analysis the effect of the proportion of infrastructure and environmental risk costs were examined. If the infrastructure costs are significantly lower than the environmental risk costs, then almost all objects of the first hierarchical level of the collection (collection directly from the users) were set up. In the other case of the proportion of costs the first collection phase will be shifted near to the last hierarchical level of the supply chain to avoid a very high infrastructure set up and operation cost. The advantages of the presented model and solution method can be summarised in the followings: the model makes it possible to decide the structure of the inverse supply chain (which object to open or close); reduces infrastructure cost, especially for supply chain with high specific fixed costs; reduces the environmental risk cost through finding an optimal balance between number of objects of the system and out of time recycled products, reduces the logistics costs through determining the optimal quantitative parameters of material flow operations. The future of this research work is the use of differentiated lead-time, which makes it possible to take into consideration the above mentioned non-linear infrastructure, transportation, warehousing and environmental risk costs in the case of a given product portfolio segmented by lead-time. This publication was supported by the National Office for Research and Technology within the frame of Pázmány Péter programme. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Office for Research and Technology. Literature: [1] H. F. Lund: McGraw-Hill Recycling Handbook. McGraw-Hill. 2000. [2] P. T. Williams: Waste Treatment and Disposal. John Wiley and Sons Ltd. 2005. [3] M. Christopher: Logistics & Supply Chain Management: creating value-adding networks. Pearson Education [4] A. Gungor, S. M. Gupta: Issues in environmentally conscious manufacturing and product recovery: a survey. Computers & Industrial Engineering. Volume 36. Issue 4. 1999. pp. 811-853. [5] H. C. Zhang, T. C. Kuo, H. Lu, S. H. Huang: Environmentally conscious design and manufacturing: A state-of-the-art survey. Journal of Manufacturing Systems. Volume 16. Issue 5. 1997. pp. 352-371. [6] P. Veerakamolmal, S. Gupta: Design for Disassembly, Reuse, and Recycling. Green Electronics/Green Bottom Line. 2000. pp. 69-82. [7] A. Rushton, P. Croucher, P. Baker: The Handbook of Logistics and Distribution Management. Kogan P.page Limited. 2006. [8] H. Stadtler, C. Kilger: Supply Chain Management and Advanced Planning: Concepts, Models, Software, and Case Studies. Springer. 2005.

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California

PubMed Central

Kiparsky, Michael; Joyce, Brian; Purkey, David; Young, Charles

2014-01-01

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario. PMID:24465455

Apples to Apples: Equivalent-Reliability Power Systems Across Diverse Resource Mix Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen, Gordon W; Frew, Bethany A; Sigler, Devon

Electricity market research is highly price sensitive, and prices are strongly influenced by balance of supply and demand. This work looks at how to combine capacity expansion models and reliability assessment tools to assess equivalent-reliability power systems across diverse resource mix scenarios.

Contingent approach to Internet-based supply network integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Jessica; Boughton, Nick; Kehoe, Dennis; Michaelides, Zenon

2001-10-01

The Internet is playing an increasingly important role in enhancing the operations of supply networks as many organizations begin to recognize the benefits of Internet- enabled supply arrangements. However, the developments and applications to-date do not extend significantly beyond the dyadic model, whereas the real advantages are to be made with the external and network models to support a coordinated and collaborative based approach. The DOMAIN research group at the University of Liverpool is currently defining new Internet- enabled approaches to enable greater collaboration across supply chains. Different e-business models and tools are focusing on different applications. Using inappropriate e- business models, tools or techniques will bring negative results instead of benefits to all the tiers in the supply network. Thus there are a number of issues to be considered before addressing Internet based supply network integration, in particular an understanding of supply chain management, the emergent business models and evaluating the effects of deploying e-business to the supply network or a particular tier. It is important to utilize a contingent approach to selecting the right e-business model to meet the specific supply chain requirements. This paper addresses the issues and provides a case study on the indirect materials supply networks.

Improved scaling laws for stage inert mass of space propulsion systems. Volume 2: System modeling and weight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

Technical models and analytical approaches used to develop the weight data for vehicle system concepts using advanced technology are reported. Weight data are supplied for the following major system elements: engine, pressurization, propellant containers, structural shells and secondary structure, and environmental protection shields for the meteoroid and thermal design requirements. Scaling laws, improved and a simplified set, are developed from the system weight data. The laws consider the implications of the major design parameters and mission requirements on the stage inert mass.

[Assessment of Three Risk Adjustment Systems as Predictors of the Consumption of Medicines and Medical Supplies at Polyvalent Hospitalization Units. Spain].

PubMed

Mera Flores, Ana María; Del Busto Bonifaz, Sebastián; Bernal Sobrino, José Luis

2016-09-26

The use of medicines and medical supplies is a significant component of health expenditure, linked to healthcare quality and efficient resource allocation. This study aimed to evaluate three risk adjustment systems predictive power of the consumption of medicines and medical supplies at polyvalent hospitalization units (PHU). This is an observational, retrospective study of the resources utilization in PHU between 2010 and 2013. We fitted linear regression models and evaluated their goodness of fit for three different predictors: Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), All Patients DRG (AP-DRG) and All Patients Refined DRG (APR-DRG) relative weights, and each one of them corrected by the length of stay. We analyzed hospitalization episodes included in the Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) from Fuenlabrada University Hospital. Data about the use of medicines and medical supplies were obtained from pharmacy and supply chain management information systems. Significant correlation was found between the annual consumption and the predictors considered (r=0,879 for CCI; r=0,622 for AP-DRG and r=0,514 for APR-DRG). The CCI corrected by length of stay was the variable that best fit presented (Ṝ2=0,863). The best predictive ability of CCI indicates that resource utilization depends more of the concurrent presence of additional pathology than the case mix calculated for iso-resource groups.

An IT-enabled supply chain model: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannella, Salvatore; Framinan, Jose M.; Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana

2014-11-01

During the last decades, supply chain collaboration practices and the underlying enabling technologies have evolved from the classical electronic data interchange (EDI) approach to a web-based and radio frequency identification (RFID)-enabled collaboration. In this field, most of the literature has focused on the study of optimal parameters for reducing the total cost of suppliers, by adopting operational research (OR) techniques. Herein we are interested in showing that the considered information technology (IT)-enabled structure is resilient, that is, it works well across a reasonably broad range of parameter settings. By adopting a methodological approach based on system dynamics, we study a multi-tier collaborative supply chain. Results show that the IT-enabled supply chain improves operational performance and customer service level. Nonetheless, benefits for geographically dispersed networks are of minor entity.

Dynamic Game Behavior of Retailers Considering the Quality of Substitute Products Based on Delay Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Binshuo; Ma, Junhai

2017-12-01

Motivated by the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road project, i.e. the Belt and Road (B&R), more goods will flow around the world. With this trading platform, people can buy products at relatively cheap prices, and it is easier for people to buy various goods. The quality and quantity of products thus attract more and more attention in the supply chains. This paper discusses the quantity decision by considering the product quality in parallel supply chains where two manufacturers produce substitute products and then sell them to their downstream retailers separately. In terms of the changing quantity, as well as the different quality, this paper establishes a dynamic game model to explore the dynamic behavior when the optimal profits of two retailers have been calculated. The dynamic behaviors of the system, such as stable region, bifurcation and chaos, strange attractors and the largest Lyapunov exponents (LLE) are analyzed. The effect of the quantity adjustment parameter on the stability of the supply chain system is investigated through numerical simulations. Furthermore, a dynamic game model is established based on the quality delay decision, to investigate the influence of the quality delay parameter on the dynamic game model and the profits. Finally, the optimal decisions are obtained and analyzed.

Estimated Use of Water in the Upper Duck River Watershed, Central Tennessee, and Water-Demand Projections through 2030

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutson, Susan S.

2008-01-01

Future municipal water demand was estimated for the Bedford, Coffee, Marshall, and Maury-southern Williamson water-service areas in the upper Duck River watershed in central Tennessee through 2030. The Duck River, a primary source of municipal water, provided a total of 24.3 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) or 92 percent of the total water use in the study area during 2000. Municipal water use increased 46 percent from 1981 to 2000 (from 18.0 to 26.3 Mgal/d). Water demand for municipal use is expected to continue to increase through 2030 because of the recent intensive and anticipated growth in the residential and commercial sectors. Constant-rate models were used to estimate future municipal water demand. Data on residential and nonresidential billing accounts and estimates of public use and losses were used to calibrate the models. Two watershed scenarios for each water-supply system that depends on the Duck River for supply were simulated. Scenario 1 considered monthly water demand during typical weather conditions as represented by monthly per account use during 2003 and a rate of growth in customer accounts from 1999 to 2003. Results showed that total municipal water use could increase about 104 percent to 51 Mgal/d by 2030, residential water use could increase about 140 percent to 24 Mgal/d, nonresidential water use could increase about 110 percent to 17 Mgal/d, and public use and losses could increase about 83 percent to 11 Mgal/d. Scenario 2 considered monthly water demand during drought conditions as represented by monthly per account use during 2000 and recent growth in customer accounts from 1999 to 2003 or, for selected water-supply systems, an increasing rate of growth. Results showed that total municipal water use could increase about 120 percent to 55 Mgal/d, residential water use could increase about 160 percent to 26 Mgal/d, nonresidential water use could increase about 122 percent to 18 Mgal/d, and public use and losses could double and increase to 12 Mgal/d. For both scenarios the model assumed that the Duck River would supply all future surface-water needs in the study area, that ground-water resources would be sufficient to meet growing demands of the water-supply systems that depend on ground water, and that the amount of surface water sold to water-supply systems primarily dependent on ground water would remain the same through 2030.

Research on the water hammer protection of the long distance water supply project with the combined action of the air vessel and over-pressure relief valve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D. D.; Jiang, J.; Zhao, Z.; Yi, W. S.; Lan, G.

2013-12-01

We take a concrete pumping station as an example in this paper. Through the calculation of water hammer protection with a specific pumping station water supply project, and the analysis of the principle, mathematical models and boundary conditions of air vessel and over-pressure relief valve we show that the air vessel can protect the water conveyance system and reduce the transient pressure damage due to various causes. Over-pressure relief valve can effectively reduce the water hammer because the water column re-bridge suddenly stops the pump and prevents pipeline burst. The paper indicates that the combination set of air vessel and over-pressure relief valve can greatly reduce the quantity of the air valve and can eliminate the water hammer phenomenon in the pipeline system due to the vaporization and water column separation and re-bridge. The conclusion could provide a reference for the water hammer protection of long-distance water supply system.

To what extent may changes in the root system architecture of Arabidopsis thaliana grown under contrasted homogenous nitrogen regimes be explained by changes in carbon supply? A modelling approach.

PubMed

Brun, François; Richard-Molard, Céline; Pagès, Loïc; Chelle, Michaël; Ney, Bertrand

2010-05-01

Root system architecture adapts to low nitrogen (N) nutrition. Some adaptations may be mediated by modifications of carbon (C) fluxes. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that changes in root system architecture under different N regimes may be accounted for by using simple hypotheses of C allocation within the root system of Arabidopsis thaliana. With that purpose, a model during vegetative growth was developed that predicted the main traits of root system architecture (total root length, lateral root number, and specific root length). Different experimental data sets crossing three C levels and two N homogenous nutrition levels were generated. Parameters were estimated from an experiment carried out under medium C and high N conditions. They were then checked under other CxN conditions. It was found that the model was able to simulate correctly C effects on root architecture in both high and low N nutrition conditions, with the same parameter values. It was concluded that C flux modifications explained the major part of root system adaptation to N supply, even if they were not sufficient to simulate some changes, such as specific root length.

Optimal planning for the sustainable utilization of municipal solid waste.

PubMed

Santibañez-Aguilar, José Ezequiel; Ponce-Ortega, José María; Betzabe González-Campos, J; Serna-González, Medardo; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M

2013-12-01

The increasing generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major problem particularly for large urban areas with insufficient landfill capacities and inefficient waste management systems. Several options associated to the supply chain for implementing a MSW management system are available, however to determine the optimal solution several technical, economic, environmental and social aspects must be considered. Therefore, this paper proposes a mathematical programming model for the optimal planning of the supply chain associated to the MSW management system to maximize the economic benefit while accounting for technical and environmental issues. The optimization model simultaneously selects the processing technologies and their location, the distribution of wastes from cities as well as the distribution of products to markets. The problem was formulated as a multi-objective mixed-integer linear programing problem to maximize the profit of the supply chain and the amount of recycled wastes, where the results are showed through Pareto curves that tradeoff economic and environmental aspects. The proposed approach is applied to a case study for the west-central part of Mexico to consider the integration of MSW from several cities to yield useful products. The results show that an integrated utilization of MSW can provide economic, environmental and social benefits. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alternative Models of Entrance Exams and Access to Higher Education: The Case of the Czech Republic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Konecny, Tomas; Basl, Josef; Myslivecek, Jan; Simonova, Natalie

2012-01-01

The study compares the potential effects of a university admission exam model based on program-specific knowledge and an alternative model relying on general study aptitude (GSA) in the context of a strongly stratified educational system with considerable excess of demand over supply of university education. Using results of the "Sonda…

Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

Treesearch

Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

2009-01-01

Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

Integration of environmental aspects in modelling and optimisation of water supply chains.

PubMed

Koleva, Mariya N; Calderón, Andrés J; Zhang, Di; Styan, Craig A; Papageorgiou, Lazaros G

2018-04-26

Climate change becomes increasingly more relevant in the context of water systems planning. Tools are necessary to provide the most economic investment option considering the reliability of the infrastructure from technical and environmental perspectives. Accordingly, in this work, an optimisation approach, formulated as a spatially-explicit multi-period Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model, is proposed for the design of water supply chains at regional and national scales. The optimisation framework encompasses decisions such as installation of new purification plants, capacity expansion, and raw water trading schemes. The objective is to minimise the total cost incurring from capital and operating expenditures. Assessment of available resources for withdrawal is performed based on hydrological balances, governmental rules and sustainable limits. In the light of the increasing importance of reliability of water supply, a second objective, seeking to maximise the reliability of the supply chains, is introduced. The epsilon-constraint method is used as a solution procedure for the multi-objective formulation. Nash bargaining approach is applied to investigate the fair trade-offs between the two objectives and find the Pareto optimality. The models' capability is addressed through a case study based on Australia. The impact of variability in key input parameters is tackled through the implementation of a rigorous global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The findings suggest that variations in water demand can be more disruptive for the water supply chain than scenarios in which rainfalls are reduced. The frameworks can facilitate governmental multi-aspect decision making processes for the adequate and strategic investments of regional water supply infrastructure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

PREVENTING CONTAMINATION OF PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY WELLS USING COMPUTERIZED MODELING AND MAPPING TOOLS

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Office of Research and Development and the Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water have collaborated since 1998 on the development of a public domain ground-water flow modeling system designed to facilitate capture zone delineation and protection area mapping for public...

Theoretical and experimental study of a wireless power supply system for moving low power devices in ferromagnetic and conductive medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safour, Salaheddine; Bernard, Yves

2017-10-01

This paper focuses on the design of a wireless power supply system for low power devices (e.g. sensors) located in harsh electromagnetic environment with ferromagnetic and conductive materials. Such particular environment could be found in linear and rotating actuators. The studied power transfer system is based on the resonant magnetic coupling between a fixed transmitter coil and a moving receiver coil. The technique was utilized successfully for rotary machines. The aim of this paper is to extend the technique to linear actuators. A modeling approach based on 2D Axisymmetric Finite Element model and an electrical lumped model based on the two-port network theory is introduced. The study shows the limitation of the technique to transfer the required power in the presence of ferromagnetic and conductive materials. Parametric and circuit analysis were conducted in order to design a resonant magnetic coupler that ensures good power transfer capability and efficiency. A design methodology is proposed based on this study. Measurements on the prototype show efficiency up to 75% at a linear distance of 20 mm.

Analyzing Power Supply and Demand on the ISS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Justin; Pham, Tho; Halyard, Raymond; Conwell, Steve

2006-01-01

Station Power and Energy Evaluation Determiner (SPEED) is a Java application program for analyzing the supply and demand aspects of the electrical power system of the International Space Station (ISS). SPEED can be executed on any computer that supports version 1.4 or a subsequent version of the Java Runtime Environment. SPEED includes an analysis module, denoted the Simplified Battery Solar Array Model, which is a simplified engineering model of the ISS primary power system. This simplified model makes it possible to perform analyses quickly. SPEED also includes a user-friendly graphical-interface module, an input file system, a parameter-configuration module, an analysis-configuration-management subsystem, and an output subsystem. SPEED responds to input information on trajectory, shadowing, attitude, and pointing in either a state-of-charge mode or a power-availability mode. In the state-of-charge mode, SPEED calculates battery state-of-charge profiles, given a time-varying power-load profile. In the power-availability mode, SPEED determines the time-varying total available solar array and/or battery power output, given a minimum allowable battery state of charge.

41 CFR 101-30.404 - Supply support.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.4-Use of the Federal Catalog System § 101-30.404 Supply support. Civilian agencies requiring supply... is in the GSA Handbook, Federal Catalog System-Logistics Data (FPMR 101-30.3), issued by the...

41 CFR 101-30.404 - Supply support.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.4-Use of the Federal Catalog System § 101-30.404 Supply support. Civilian agencies requiring supply... is in the GSA Handbook, Federal Catalog System-Logistics Data (FPMR 101-30.3), issued by the...

41 CFR 101-30.404 - Supply support.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.4-Use of the Federal Catalog System § 101-30.404 Supply support. Civilian agencies requiring supply... is in the GSA Handbook, Federal Catalog System-Logistics Data (FPMR 101-30.3), issued by the...

41 CFR 101-30.404 - Supply support.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.4-Use of the Federal Catalog System § 101-30.404 Supply support. Civilian agencies requiring supply... is in the GSA Handbook, Federal Catalog System-Logistics Data (FPMR 101-30.3), issued by the...

41 CFR 101-30.404 - Supply support.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 30-FEDERAL CATALOG SYSTEM 30.4-Use of the Federal Catalog System § 101-30.404 Supply support. Civilian agencies requiring supply... is in the GSA Handbook, Federal Catalog System-Logistics Data (FPMR 101-30.3), issued by the...

Global reverse supply chain design for solid waste recycling under uncertainties and carbon emission constraint.

PubMed

Xu, Zhitao; Elomri, Adel; Pokharel, Shaligram; Zhang, Qin; Ming, X G; Liu, Wenjie

2017-06-01

The emergence of concerns over environmental protection, resource conservation as well as the development of logistics operations and manufacturing technology has led several countries to implement formal collection and recycling systems of solid waste. Such recycling system has the benefits of reducing environmental pollution, boosting the economy by creating new jobs, and generating income from trading the recyclable materials. This leads to the formation of a global reverse supply chain (GRSC) of solid waste. In this paper, we investigate the design of such a GRSC with a special emphasis on three aspects; (1) uncertainty of waste collection levels, (2) associated carbon emissions, and (3) challenges posed by the supply chain's global aspect, particularly the maritime transportation costs and currency exchange rates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to integrate the three above-mentioned important aspects in the design of a GRSC. We have used mixed integer-linear programming method along with robust optimization to develop the model which is validated using a sample case study of e-waste management. Our results show that using a robust model by taking the complex interactions characterizing global reverse supply chain networks into account, we can create a better GRSC. The effect of uncertainties and carbon constraints on decisions to reduce costs and emissions are also shown. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid genetic-simulated annealing algorithm for the location-inventory-routing problem considering returns under e-supply chain environment.

PubMed

Li, Yanhui; Guo, Hao; Wang, Lin; Fu, Jing

2013-01-01

Facility location, inventory control, and vehicle routes scheduling are critical and highly related problems in the design of logistics system for e-business. Meanwhile, the return ratio in Internet sales was significantly higher than in the traditional business. Many of returned merchandise have no quality defects, which can reenter sales channels just after a simple repackaging process. Focusing on the existing problem in e-commerce logistics system, we formulate a location-inventory-routing problem model with no quality defects returns. To solve this NP-hard problem, an effective hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithm (HGSAA) is proposed. Results of numerical examples show that HGSAA outperforms GA on computing time, optimal solution, and computing stability. The proposed model is very useful to help managers make the right decisions under e-supply chain environment.

A new order splitting model with stochastic lead times for deterioration items

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazvar, Zeinab; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad Reza; Baboli, Armand

2014-09-01

In unreliable supply environments, the strategy of pooling lead time risks by splitting replenishment orders among multiple suppliers simultaneously is an attractive sourcing policy that has captured the attention of academic researchers and corporate managers alike. While various assumptions are considered in the models developed, researchers tend to overlook an important inventory category in order splitting models: deteriorating items. In this paper, we study an order splitting policy for a retailer that sells a deteriorating product. The inventory system is modelled as a continuous review system (s, Q) under stochastic lead time. Demand rate per unit time is assumed to be constant over an infinite planning horizon and shortages are backordered completely. We develop two inventory models. In the first model, it is assumed that all the requirements are supplied by only one source, whereas in the second, two suppliers are available. We use sensitivity analysis to determine the situations in which each sourcing policy is the most economic. We then study a real case from the European pharmaceutical industry to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed models. Finally, more promising directions are suggested for future research.

Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

2017-12-01

Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcoholsmore » and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.« less

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement March 1998)

EIA Publications

1998-01-01

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced currently.

Identifying Efficiencies in the Supply Chain for Training Ammunition: Methods, Models, and Recommendations

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

Standard Army Ammunition System–Modernized ( SAAS -MOD), Total Army Munitions Information System (TAMIS), and the Worldwide Ammunition Reporting System...activities do your ASP personnel execute that are not captured in the Workload Report accessible in SAAS ? How much time would you estimate each of these

Educational Technology and Organizational Development: A Collaborative Approach to Organizational Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forbes, Raymond L., Jr.; Nickols, Frederick W.

The basic similarities between educational technology and organizational development provide a powerful rationale for collaboration. The two disciplines are essentially in the same business, that of systematically changing human behavior. System theory and the system model appear to supply the language and the technology through which such efforts…

Design and study of water supply system for supercritical unit boiler in thermal power station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Zenghui

2018-04-01

In order to design and optimize the boiler feed water system of supercritical unit, the establishment of a highly accurate controlled object model and its dynamic characteristics are prerequisites for developing a perfect thermal control system. In this paper, the method of mechanism modeling often leads to large systematic errors. Aiming at the information contained in the historical operation data of the boiler typical thermal system, the modern intelligent identification method to establish a high-precision quantitative model is used. This method avoids the difficulties caused by the disturbance experiment modeling for the actual system in the field, and provides a strong reference for the design and optimization of the thermal automation control system in the thermal power plant.

Multi-objective analysis of the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater in a multisource water supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, João; da Conceição Cunha, Maria

2017-04-01

A multi-objective decision model has been developed to identify the Pareto-optimal set of management alternatives for the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater of a multisource urban water supply system. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, Borg MOEA, is used to solve the multi-objective decision model. The multiple solutions can be shown to stakeholders allowing them to choose their own solutions depending on their preferences. The multisource urban water supply system studied here is dependent on surface water and groundwater and located in the Algarve region, southernmost province of Portugal, with a typical warm Mediterranean climate. The rainfall is low, intermittent and concentrated in a short winter, followed by a long and dry period. A base population of 450 000 inhabitants and visits by more than 13 million tourists per year, mostly in summertime, turns water management critical and challenging. Previous studies on single objective optimization after aggregating multiple objectives together have already concluded that only an integrated and interannual water resources management perspective can be efficient for water resource allocation in this drought prone region. A simulation model of the multisource urban water supply system using mathematical functions to represent the water balance in the surface reservoirs, the groundwater flow in the aquifers, and the water transport in the distribution network with explicit representation of water quality is coupled with Borg MOEA. The multi-objective problem formulation includes five objectives. Two objective evaluate separately the water quantity and the water quality supplied for the urban use in a finite time horizon, one objective calculates the operating costs, and two objectives appraise the state of the two water sources - the storage in the surface reservoir and the piezometric levels in aquifer - at the end of the time horizon. The decision variables are the volume of withdrawals from each water source in each time step (i.e., reservoir diversion and groundwater pumping). The results provide valuable information for analysing the impacts of the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater. For example, considering a drought scenario, the results show how the same level of total water supplied can be achieved by different management alternatives with different impact on the water quality, costs, and the state of the water sources at the end of the time horizon. The results allow also the clear understanding of the potential benefits from the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater thorough the mitigation of the variation in the availability of surface water, improving the water quantity and/or water quality delivered to the users, or the better adaptation of such systems to a changing world.

Mathematical modelling of Bit-Level Architecture using Reciprocal Quantum Logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narendran, S.; Selvakumar, J.

2018-04-01

Efficiency of high-performance computing is on high demand with both speed and energy efficiency. Reciprocal Quantum Logic (RQL) is one of the technology which will produce high speed and zero static power dissipation. RQL uses AC power supply as input rather than DC input. RQL has three set of basic gates. Series of reciprocal transmission lines are placed in between each gate to avoid loss of power and to achieve high speed. Analytical model of Bit-Level Architecture are done through RQL. Major drawback of reciprocal Quantum Logic is area, because of lack in proper power supply. To achieve proper power supply we need to use splitters which will occupy large area. Distributed arithmetic uses vector- vector multiplication one is constant and other is signed variable and each word performs as a binary number, they rearranged and mixed to form distributed system. Distributed arithmetic is widely used in convolution and high performance computational devices.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Commercial Module

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

The Commercial Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) is an energy demand modeling system of the world commercial end?use sector at a regional level. This report describes the version of the Commercial Model that was used to produce the commercial sector projections published in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016). The Commercial Model is one of 13 components of the WEPS system. The WEPS is a modular system, consisting of a number of separate energy models that are communicate and work with each other through an integrated system model. The model components are each developed independently, but are designed with well?defined protocols for system communication and interactivity. The WEPS modeling system uses a shared database (the “restart” file) that allows all the models to communicate with each other when they are run in sequence over a number of iterations. The overall WEPS system uses an iterative solution technique that forces convergence of consumption and supply pressures to solve for an equilibrium price.

[Medical human resources planning in Europe: A literature review of the forecasting models].

PubMed

Benahmed, N; Deliège, D; De Wever, A; Pirson, M

2018-02-01

Healthcare is a labor-intensive sector in which half of the expenses are dedicated to human resources. Therefore, policy makers, at national and internal levels, attend to the number of practicing professionals and the skill mix. This paper aims to analyze the European forecasting model for supply and demand of physicians. To describe the forecasting tools used for physician planning in Europe, a grey literature search was done in the OECD, WHO, and European Union libraries. Electronic databases such as Pubmed, Medine, Embase and Econlit were also searched. Quantitative methods for forecasting medical supply rely mainly on stock-and-flow simulations and less often on systemic dynamics. Parameters included in forecasting models exhibit wide variability for data availability and quality. The forecasting of physician needs is limited to healthcare consumption and rarely considers overall needs and service targets. Besides quantitative methods, horizon scanning enables an evaluation of the changes in supply and demand in an uncertain future based on qualitative techniques such as semi-structured interviews, Delphi Panels, or focus groups. Finally, supply and demand forecasting models should be regularly updated. Moreover, post-hoc analyze is also needed but too rarely implemented. Medical human resource planning in Europe is inconsistent. Political implementation of the results of forecasting projections is essential to insure efficient planning. However, crucial elements such as mobility data between Member States are poorly understood, impairing medical supply regulation policies. These policies are commonly limited to training regulations, while horizontal and vertical substitution is less frequently taken into consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Impacts on River Temperature in the Southeastern United States: A Case Study of the Tennessee River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Mao, Y.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, climate change and population growth are expected to affect water and energy supply as well as demand in the southeastern United States. Changes in temperature and precipitation impact river flow and stream temperature with implications for hydropower generation, industrial and municipal water supply, cooling for thermo-electric power plants, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem functions and flood control. At the same time, water and energy demand are expected to change in response to temperature increase, population growth and changing crop water requirements. As part of a multi-institution study of the food-energy-water nexus in the southeastern U.S., we are developing coupled hydrological and stream temperature models that will be linked to water resources, power systems and crop models at a later stage. Here we evaluate the ability of our system to simulate water supply and stream temperature in the Tennessee River Basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model coupled to the River Basin Model (RBM), a 1-D semi-Lagrangian river temperature model, which has recently been expanded with a two-layer reservoir temperature model. Simulations with VIC-RBM were performed for the Tennessee River Basin at 1/8-degree spatial resolution and a temporal resolution of 1 day or less. Reservoir releases were prescribed based on historic operating rules. In future iterations, these releases will be modeled directly by a water resources model that incorporates flood control, and power and agricultural water demands. We compare simulated flows, as well as stream and reservoir temperatures with observed flows and temperatures throughout the basin. In preparation for later stages of the project, we also perform a set of climate change sensitivity experiments to evaluate how changes in climate may impact river and reservoir temperature.

The Economics of Timber Supply: An Analytical Synthesis of Modeling Approaches

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Peter J. Parks

1994-01-01

The joint supply of timber and other services from forest environments plays a central role in most forest land debates. This paper defines a general conceptual model of timber supply that provides the context for discussing both individual harvest choice and aggregate supply models. While the structure and breadth of these models has developed considerably over the...

Geohydrology and simulations of ground-water flow at Verona well field, Battle Creek, Michigan, 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, E.A.; Grannemann, N.G.

1997-01-01

Public water supply for the city of Battle Creek, Mich. is withdrawn from the Marshall Sandstone through wells at the Verona well field. Analysis of borehole acoustic televiewer, gamma, and single-point-resistance logs from wells in Bailey Park, near the well field, indicates 12 fracture zones in the Marshall Sandstone. Further interpretation of flow-meter and temperature logs from the same wells indicates that the fracture zones are locally interconnected but appear to remain isolated over a lateral distance of 3,000 feet. Organic chemicals were detected in water samples collected from water-supply wells in the Verona well field in 1981. In 1985, six water-supply wells were converted to purge wells to intercept organic chemicals and divert them from the remaining water-supply wells. Removal of these wells from service resulted in a water-supply shortage. A proposal in which an alternative purge system could be installed so that wells that are out of service may be reactivated was examined. A ground-water-flow model developed for this study indicates that, under the current purge configuration, most water from contaminant-source areas either is captured by purge wells or flows to the Battle Creek River. Some water, however, is captured by three water-supply wells. Model simulations indicate that with the addition of eight purge wells, the well field would be protected from contamination, most water from the contaminant-source areas would be captured by the purge system, and only a small portion would flow to the Battle Creek River. In an effort to augment the city's water supply, the potential for expansion of the Verona well field to the northeast also was investigated. Because of the addition of three municipal wells northeast of the well field, some water from the site of a gasoline spill may be captured by two water-supply wells. Ground water in the area northeast of Verona well field contains significantly lower concentrations of iron, manganese, and calcium carbonate than does water in the existing well field area. However, the Marshall Sandstone in this area has significantly lower transmissivities than those within Verona well field.

Approach for delineation of contributing areas and zones of transport to selected public-supply wells using a regional ground-water flow model, Palm Beach County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renken, R.A.; Patterson, R.D.; Orzol, L.L.; Dixon, Joann

2001-01-01

Rapid urban development and population growth in Palm Beach County, Florida, have been accompanied with the need for additional freshwater withdrawals from the surficial aquifer system. To maintain water quality, County officials protect capture areas and determine zones of transport of municipal supply wells. A multistep process was used to help automate the delineation of wellhead protection areas. A modular ground-water flow model (MODFLOW) Telescopic Mesh Refinement program (MODTMR) was used to construct an embedded flow model and combined with particle tracking to delineate zones of transport to supply wells; model output was coupled with a geographic information system. An embedded flow MODFLOW model was constructed using input and output file data from a preexisting three-dimensional, calibrated model of the surficial aquifer system. Three graphical user interfaces for use with the geographic information software, ArcView, were developed to enhance the telescopic mesh refinement process. These interfaces include AvMODTMR for use with MODTMR; AvHDRD to build MODFLOW river and drain input files from dynamically segmented linear (canals) data sets; and AvWELL Refiner, an interface designed to examine and convert well coverage spatial data layers to a MODFLOW Well package input file. MODPATH (the U.S. Geological Survey particle-tracking postprocessing program) and MODTOOLS (the set of U.S. Geological Survey computer programs to translate MODFLOW and MODPATH output to a geographic information system) were used to map zones of transport. A steady-state, five-layer model of the Boca Raton area was created using the telescopic mesh refinement process and calibrated to average conditions during January 1989 to June 1990. A sensitivity analysis of various model parameters indicates that the model is most sensitive to changes in recharge rates, hydraulic conductivity for layer 1, and leakance for layers 3 and 4 (Biscayne aquifer). Recharge (58 percent); river (canal) leakance (29 percent); and inflow through the northern, western, and southern prescribed flux model boundaries (10 percent) represent the major inflow components. Principal outflow components in the Boca Raton well field area include well discharge (56 percent), river (canal) leakance (27 percent), and water that discharges along the coast (10 percent). A particle-tracking analysis using MODPATH was conducted to better understand well-field ground-water flow patterns and time of travel. MODTOOLS was used to construct zones-of-transport spatial data for municipal supply wells. Porosity estimates were uniformly increased to study the effect of porosity on zones of transport. Where porosity was increased, the size of the zones of transport were shown to decrease.

A model for evaluating the three-dimensional groundwater dividing pathline between a contaminant source and a partially penetrating water-supply well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harmsen, Eric W.; Converse, James C.; Anderson, Mary P.; Hoopes, John A.

1991-09-01

Effluent from septic tank-drainfields can degrade groundwater quality and contaminate nearby water-supply wells. Such groundwater contamination is a problem in the unsewered subdivisions of the sand plain of central Wisconsin, for example. To help planners minimize the risk of direct contamination of a water-supply well by a septic system, a model was developed to estimate the location of the critical dividing pathline between a rectangular contaminant source (the septic tank drainfield) and a partially penetrating pumping well. The model is capable of handling three-dimensional, transient flow in an unconfined, homogeneous, anisotropic aquifer of infinite areal extent, under a regional horizontal hydraulic gradient. Model results are in very good agreement with several other numerical and analytical models. Examples are given for which the safe, horizontal and vertical separation distances to avoid well water contamination are determined for typical central Wisconsin sand plain conditions. A companion paper (Harmsen et al., 1991) describes the application of this model, using a Monte-Carlo analysis, to study the variation of these separation distances in the Wisconsin sand plain. The model can also be applied to larger scale problems and, therefore, could be useful in implementing the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's new well head protection program.

Public Water-Supply Systems and Associated Water Use in Tennessee, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webbers, Ank

2003-01-01

Public water-supply systems in Tennessee provide water to meet customer needs for domestic, industrial, and commercial users and municipal services. In 2000, more than 500 public water-supply systems distributed about 890 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of surface water and ground water to a population of about 5 million in Tennessee. Surface-water sources provided 64 percent (about 569 Mgal/d) of the State?s water supplies, primarily in Middle and East Tennessee. Ground water produced from wells and springs in Middle and East Tennessee and from wells in West Tennessee provided 36 percent (about 321 Mgal/d) of the public water supplies. Springs in Middle and East Tennessee provided about 14 percent (about 42 Mgal/d) of ground-water supplies used in the State. Per capita water use for Tennessee in 2000 was about 136 gallons per day. An additional 146 public water-supply systems provided approximately 84 Mgal/d of water supplies that were purchased from other water systems. Water withdrawals by public water-supply systems in Tennessee have increased by over 250 percent; from 250 Mgal/d in 1955 to 890 Mgal/d in 2000. Although Tennessee public water-supply systems withdraw less ground water than surface water, ground-water withdrawal rates reported by these systems continue to increase. In addition, the number of public water-supply systems reporting ground-water withdrawals of 1 Mgal/d or more in West Tennessee is increasing.

Preliminary investigations of design philosophies and features applicable to large magnetic suspension and balance systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britcher, C. P.; Fortescue, P. W.; Allcock, G. A.; Goodyer, M. J.

1979-01-01

The technology which is required to allow the principles of magnetic suspension and balance systems (MSBS) to be applied to the high Reynolds number transonic testing of aircraft models is examined. A test facility is presented as comprising a pressurized transonic cryogenic wind tunnel, with the MSBS providing full six degree of freedom control. The electro-magnets which are superconducting and fed from quiet, bipolar power supplies are examined. A model control system having some self adaptive characteristics is discussed.

Photovoltaic-wind hybrid system for permanent magnet DC motor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, M. N. M.; Lada, M. Y.; Baharom, M. F.; Jaafar, H. I.; Ramani, A. N.; Sulaima, M. F.

2015-05-01

Hybrid system of Photovoltaic (PV) - Wind turbine (WT) generation has more advantages and reliable compared to PV or wind turbine system alone. The aim of this paper is to model and design hybrid system of PV-WT supplying 100W permanent-magnet dc motor. To achieve the objective, both of PV and WT are connected to converter in order to get the same source of DC supply. Then both sources were combined and straightly connected to 100W permanent magnet dc motor. All the works in this paper is only applied in circuit simulator by using Matlab Simulink. The output produced from each converter is expected to be suit to the motor specification. The output produced from each renewable energy system is as expected to be high as it can support the motor if one of them is breakdown

Program on State Agency Remote Sensing Data Management (SARSDM). [missouri

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eastwood, L. F., Jr.; Gotway, E. O.

1978-01-01

A planning study for developing a Missouri natural resources information system (NRIS) that combines satellite-derived data and other information to assist in carrying out key state tasks was conducted. Four focal applications -- dam safety, ground water supply monitoring, municipal water supply monitoring, and Missouri River basin modeling were identified. Major contributions of the study are: (1) a systematic choice and analysis of a high priority application (water resources) for a Missouri, LANDSAT-based information system; (2) a system design and implementation plan, based on Missouri, but useful for many other states; (3) an analysis of system costs, component and personnel requirements, and scheduling; and (4) an assessment of deterrents to successful technological innovation of this type in state government, and a system management plan, based on this assessment, for overcoming these obstacles in Missouri.

An integrative assessment of the commercial air transportation system via adaptive agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Choon Giap

The overarching research objective is to address the tightly-coupled interactions between the demand-side and supply-side components of the United States Commercial Air Transportation System (CATS) in a time-variant environment. A system-of-system perspective is adopted, where the scope is extended beyond the National Airspace System (NAS) level to the National Transportation System (NTS) level to capture the intermodal and multimodal relationships between the NTS stakeholders. The Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation technique is employed where the NTS/NAS is treated as an integrated Multi-Agent System comprising of consumer and service provider agents, representing the demand-side and supply-side components respectively. Successful calibration and validation of both model components against the observable real world data resulted in a CATS simulation tool where the aviation demand is estimated from socioeconomic and demographic properties of the population instead of merely based on enplanement growth multipliers. This valuable achievement enabled a 20-year outlook simulation study to investigate the implications of a global fuel price hike on the airline industry and the U.S. CATS at large. Simulation outcomes revealed insights into the airline competitive behaviors and the subsequent responses from transportation consumers.

Potential Offshore Submarine Groundwater in the Albufeira-Ribeira de Quarteira aquifer system (Algarve, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Monteiro, Jose Paulo

2015-04-01

The Albufeira-Ribeira de Quarteira aquifer system on the south coast of Portugal is an important source of groundwater for agriculture and tourism, as well as contributing to significant freshwater discharge along the coast in the form of inter- and sub-tidal springs and maintaining groundwater dependent ecosystems along the Quarteira stream. Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the area was investigated within the scope of a multidisciplinary research project FREEZE (PTDC/MAR/102030/2008) which aimed to identify and characterize the effects of the hydrological/hydrogeological conditions on associated ecosystems. As well as near shore submarine springs, signs of SGD were found several kilometres from the shoreline during offshore CTD and geophysical surveys. On-land geophysical and offshore seismic surveys supplied data to update the 3D hydrogeological conceptual model of the aquifer system. Numerical models were applied to test the possibility of an offshore continuation of fresh groundwater over several kilometres under local conditions. Due to the high computational demand of variable density modelling, in an initial phase simplified 2D cross section models were used to test the conceptual model and reduce uncertainty in regards to model parameters. Results confirm the potential for SGD several kilometres from the coast within a range of acceptable values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge of the system. This represents the initial step in developing and calibrating a 3D regional scale model of the system, which aims to supply an estimate of the spatial distribution of SGD as well as serve as a decision support tool for the local water resources management agency.

Using integrated information systems in supply chain management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzálvez-Gallego, Nicolás; Molina-Castillo, Francisco-Jose; Soto-Acosta, Pedro; Varajao, Joao; Trigo, Antonio

2015-02-01

The aim of this paper is to empirically test not only the direct effects of information and communication technology (ICT) capabilities and integrated information systems (IS) on firm performance, but also the moderating role of IS integration along the supply chain in the relationship between ICT external and capabilities and business performance. Data collected from 102 large Iberian firms from Spain and Portugal are used to test the research model. The hierarchical multiple regression analysis is employed to test the direct effects and the moderating relationships proposed. Results show that external and internal ICT capabilities are important drivers of firm performance, while merely having integrated IS do not lead to better firm performance. In addition, a moderating effect of IS integration in the relationship between ICT capabilities and business performance is found, although this integration only contributes to firm performance when it is directed to connect with suppliers or customers rather than when integrating the whole supply chain.

Climate Narratives: Combing multiple sources of information to develop risk management strategies for a municipal water utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D. N.; Basdekas, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Stewart, N.

2013-12-01

Municipal water utilities often develop Integrated Water Resource Plans (IWRP), with the goal of providing a reliable, sustainable water supply to customers in a cost-effective manner. Colorado Springs Utilities, a 5-service provider (potable and waste water, solid waste, natural gas and electricity) in Colorado USA, recently undertook an IWRP. where they incorporated water supply, water demand, water quality, infrastructure reliability, environmental protection, and other measures within the context of complex water rights, such as their critically important 'exchange potential'. The IWRP noted that an uncertain climate was one of the greatest sources of uncertainty to achieving a sustainable water supply to a growing community of users. We describe how historic drought, paleo-climate, and climate change projections were blended together into climate narratives that informed a suite of water resource systems models used by the utility to explore the vulnerabilities of their water systems.

Evaluation of methodology for delineation of protection zones around public-supply wells in west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchioli, John; Hunn, J.D.; Aucott, W.R.

1989-01-01

Public-supply wells in the west-central Florida area of Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Hillsborough, and Pinellas Counties derive their supply solely from the Floridan aquifer system. In much of this area, the Floridan is at or near land surface and vulnerable to contamination. Recognizing this potential threat to the aquifer, the Florida Department of Environmental Regulation (FDER) recently promulgated regulations providing for the delineation of protection zones around public-supply wells that tap vulnerable aquifers, such as the Floridan in west-central Florida. This report evaluates the methodology for delineation of protection zones for public supply wells in west-central Florida in accordance with the methods detailed in the FDER regulations. Protection zones were delineated for public supply wells or well fields that are permitted an average daily withdrawal of 100,000 gal or more from the Floridan aquifer system where it is unconfined or leaky confined. Leaky confined, as used in FDER regulations describe conditions such that the time for a particle of water to travel vertically from the water table to the top of the Floridan is 5 years or less. Protection zones were delineated by using a radial volumetric-displacement model that simulated 5 years of permitted-rate withdrawal. Where zones overlapped, such as for well fields, composite protection zones in shapes that varied according to the configuration of well arrays were delineated on maps. (USGS)

Phytoplankton succession in recurrently fluctuating environments.

PubMed

Roelke, Daniel L; Spatharis, Sofie

2015-01-01

Coastal marine systems are affected by seasonal variations in biogeochemical and physical processes, sometimes leading to alternating periods of reproductive growth limitation within an annual cycle. Transitions between these periods can be sudden or gradual. Human activities, such as reservoir construction and interbasin water transfers, influence these processes and can affect the type of transition between resource loading conditions. How such human activities might influence phytoplankton succession is largely unknown. Here, we employ a multispecies, multi-nutrient model to explore how nutrient loading switching mode might affect phytoplankton succession. The model is based on the Monod-relationship, predicting an instantaneous reproductive growth rate from ambient inorganic nutrient concentrations whereas the limiting nutrient at any given time was determined by Liebig's Law of the Minimum. When these relationships are combined with population loss factors, such as hydraulic displacement of cells associated with inflows, a characterization of a species' niche can be achieved through application of the R* conceptual model, thus enabling an ecological interpretation of modeling results. We found that the mode of reversal in resource supply concentrations had a profound effect. When resource supply reversals were sudden, as expected in systems influenced by pulsed inflows or wind-driven mixing events, phytoplankton were characterized by alternating succession dynamics, a phenomenon documented in inland water bodies of temperate latitudes. When resource supply reversals were gradual, as expected in systems influenced by seasonally developing wet and dry seasons, or annually occurring periods of upwelling, phytoplankton dynamics were characterized by mirror-image succession patterns. This phenomenon has not been reported previously in plankton systems but has been observed in some terrestrial plant systems. These findings suggest that a transition from alternating to "mirror-image" succession patterns might arise with continued coastal zone development, with crucial implications for ecosystems dependent on time-sensitive processes, e.g., spawning events and migration patterns.

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

Development of modelling algorithm of technological systems by statistical tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shemshura, E. A.; Otrokov, A. V.; Chernyh, V. G.

2018-03-01

The paper tackles the problem of economic assessment of design efficiency regarding various technological systems at the stage of their operation. The modelling algorithm of a technological system was performed using statistical tests and with account of the reliability index allows estimating the level of machinery technical excellence and defining the efficiency of design reliability against its performance. Economic feasibility of its application shall be determined on the basis of service quality of a technological system with further forecasting of volumes and the range of spare parts supply.