Metaheuristic simulation optimisation for the stochastic multi-retailer supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, Marina; Mustaffa, Noorfa Haszlinna H.; Othman, Siti Norsyahida

2013-04-01

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is an important activity in all producing facilities and in many organizations to enable vendors, manufacturers and suppliers to interact gainfully and plan optimally their flow of goods and services. A simulation optimization approach has been widely used in research nowadays on finding the best solution for decision-making process in Supply Chain Management (SCM) that generally faced a complexity with large sources of uncertainty and various decision factors. Metahueristic method is the most popular simulation optimization approach. However, very few researches have applied this approach in optimizing the simulation model for supply chains. Thus, this paper interested in evaluating the performance of metahueristic method for stochastic supply chains in determining the best flexible inventory replenishment parameters that minimize the total operating cost. The simulation optimization model is proposed based on the Bees algorithm (BA) which has been widely applied in engineering application such as training neural networks for pattern recognition. BA is a new member of meta-heuristics. BA tries to model natural behavior of honey bees in food foraging. Honey bees use several mechanisms like waggle dance to optimally locate food sources and to search new ones. This makes them a good candidate for developing new algorithms for solving optimization problems. This model considers an outbound centralised distribution system consisting of one supplier and 3 identical retailers and is assumed to be independent and identically distributed with unlimited supply capacity at supplier.

Model simulation of the Manasquan water-supply system in Monmouth County, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Ming; Tasker, Gary D.; Nieswand, Steven

2001-01-01

Model simulation of the Manasquan Water Supply System in Monmouth County, New Jersey, was completed using historic hydrologic data to evaluate the effects of operational and withdrawal alternatives on the Manasquan reservoir and pumping system. Changes in the system operations can be simulated with the model using precipitation forecasts. The Manasquan Reservoir system model operates by using daily streamflow values, which were reconstructed from historical U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station records. The model is able to run in two modes--General Risk analysis Model (GRAM) and Position Analysis Model (POSA). The GRAM simulation procedure uses reconstructed historical streamflow records to provide probability estimates of certain events, such as reservoir storage levels declining below a specific level, when given an assumed set of operating rules and withdrawal rates. POSA can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as streamflows falling below statutory passing flows, associated with a specific working plan for the water-supply system over a period of months. The user can manipulate the model and generate graphs and tables of streamflows and storage, for example. This model can be used as a management tool to facilitate the development of drought warning and drought emergency rule curves and safe yield values for the water-supply system.

Drought allocations using the Systems Impact Assessment Model: Klamath River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Campbell, S.G.

2005-01-01

Water supply and allocation scenarios for the Klamath River, Ore. and Calif., were evaluated using the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM), a decision support system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. SIAM is a set of models with a graphical user interface that simulates water supply and delivery in a managed river system, water quality, and fish production. Simulation results are presented for drought conditions, one aspect of Klamath River water operations. The Klamath River Basin has experienced critically dry conditions in 1992, 1994, and 2001. Drought simulations are useful to estimate the impacts of specific legal or institutional flow constraints. In addition, simulations help to identify potential adverse water quality consequences including evaluating the potential for reducing adverse temperature impacts on anadromous fish. In all drought simulations, water supply was insufficient to fully meet upstream and downstream targets for endangered species.

Modelling the EDLC-based Power Supply Module for a Maneuvering System of a Nanosatellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumarin, A. A.; Kudryavtsev, I. A.

2018-01-01

The development of the model of the power supply module of a maneuvering system of a nanosatellite is described. The module is based on an EDLC battery as an energy buffer. The EDLC choice is described. Experiments are conducted to provide data for model. Simulation of the power supply module is made for charging and discharging of the battery processes. The difference between simulation and experiment does not exceed 0.5% for charging and 10% for discharging. The developed model can be used in early design and to adjust charger and load parameters. The model can be expanded to represent the entire power system.

Risk Assessment in Relation to the Effect of Climate Change on Water Shortage in the Taichung Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, J.; Chang, L.; Ho, C.; Niu, M.

2010-12-01

Rapid economic development has stimulated a worldwide greenhouse effect and induced global climate change. Global climate change has increased the range of variation in the quantity of regional river flows between wet and dry seasons, which effects the management of regional water resources. Consequently, the influence of climate change has become an important issue in the management of regional water resources. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to risk analysis of shortage of water supply in the Taichung area. This study proposed a simulation model that integrated three models: weather generator model, surface runoff model, and water distribution model. The proposed model was used to evaluate the efficiency of the current water supply system and the potential effectiveness of two additional plans for water supply: the “artificial lakes” plan and the “cross-basin water transport” plan. A first-order Markov Chain method and two probability distribution models, exponential distribution and normal distribution, were used in the weather generator model. In the surface runoff model, researchers selected the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model (GWLF) to simulate the relationship between quantity of rainfall and basin outflow. A system dynamics model (SD) was applied to the water distribution model. Results of the simulation indicated that climate change could increase the annual quantity of river flow in the Dachia River and Daan River basins. However, climate change could also increase the difference in the quantity of river flow between wet and dry seasons. Simulation results showed that in current system case or in the additional plan cases, shortage status of water for both public and agricultural uses with conditions of climate change will be mostly worse than that without conditions of climate change except for the shortage status for the public use in the current system case. With or without considering the effect of climate change, the additional plans, especially the “cross-basin water transport” plan, for water supply could significantly increase the supply of water for public use. The proposed simulation model and results of analysis in this study could provide valuable reference for decision-makers in regards to risk analysis of regional water supply.

A stock-and-flow simulation model of the US blood supply.

PubMed

Simonetti, Arianna; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A; Walderhaug, Mark

2014-03-01

Lack of reporting requirements for the amount of blood stored in blood banks and hospitals poses challenges to effectively monitor the US blood supply. Effective strategies to minimize collection and donation disruptions in the supply require an understanding of the daily amount of blood available in the system. A stock-and-flow simulation model of the US blood supply was developed to obtain estimates of the daily on-hand availability of blood, with uncertainty and by ABO/Rh type. The model simulated potential impact on supply of using different blood management practices for transfusion: first in-first out (FIFO), using the oldest stored red blood cell units first; non-FIFO likely oldest, preferentially selecting older blood; and non-FIFO likely newest, preferentially selecting younger blood. Simulation results showed higher estimates of the steady-state of the blood supply level for FIFO (1,630,000 units, 95% prediction interval [PI] 1,610,000-1,650,000) than non-FIFO scenarios (likely oldest, 1,530,000 units, 95% PI 1,500,000-1,550,000; and likely newest, 1,190,000 units, 95% PI 1,160,000-1,220,000), either for overall blood or by blood types. To our knowledge, this model represents a first attempt to evaluate the impact of different blood management practices on daily availability and distribution of blood in the US blood supply. The average storage time before blood is being issued was influenced by blood management practices, for preferences of blood that is younger and also that use specific blood types. The model also suggests which practice could best approximate the current blood management system and may serve as useful tool for blood management. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Simulation of raw water and treatment parameters in support of the disinfection by-products regulatory impact analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regli, S.; Cromwell, J.; Mosher, J.

The U.S. EPA has undertaken an effort to model how the water supply industry may respond to possible rules and how those responses may affect human health risk. The model is referred to as the Disinfection By-Product Regulatory Analysis Model (DBPRAM), The paper is concerned primarily with presenting and discussing the methods, underlying data, assumptions, limitations and results for the first part of the model. This part of the model shows the creation of sets of simulated water supplies that are representative of the conditions currently encountered by public water supplies with respect to certain raw water quality and watermore » treatment characteristics.« less

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Exploration Supply Chain Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

The Exploration Supply Chain Simulation project was chartered by the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate to develop a software tool, with proper data, to quantitatively analyze supply chains for future program planning. This tool is a discrete-event simulation that uses the basic supply chain concepts of planning, sourcing, making, delivering, and returning. This supply chain perspective is combined with other discrete or continuous simulation factors. Discrete resource events (such as launch or delivery reviews) are represented as organizational functional units. Continuous resources (such as civil service or contractor program functions) are defined as enabling functional units. Concepts of fixed and variable costs are included in the model to allow the discrete events to interact with cost calculations. The definition file is intrinsic to the model, but a blank start can be initiated at any time. The current definition file is an Orion Ares I crew launch vehicle. Parameters stretch from Kennedy Space Center across and into other program entities (Michaud Assembly Facility, Aliant Techsystems, Stennis Space Center, Johnson Space Center, etc.) though these will only gain detail as the file continues to evolve. The Orion Ares I file definition in the tool continues to evolve, and analysis from this tool is expected in 2008. This is the first application of such business-driven modeling to a NASA/government-- aerospace contractor endeavor.

Developing Students' Understanding of Co-Opetition and Multilevel Inventory Management Strategies in Supply Chains: An In-Class Spreadsheet Simulation Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fetter, Gary; Shockley, Jeff

2014-01-01

Instructors look for ways to explain to students how supply chains can be constructed so that competing suppliers can work together to improve inventory management performance (i.e., a phenomenon known as co-opetition). An Excel spreadsheet-driven simulation is presented that models a complete multilevel supply chain system--customer, retailer,…

Computational model for fuel component supply into a combustion chamber of LRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teterev, A. V.; Mandrik, P. A.; Rudak, L. V.; Misyuchenko, N. I.

2017-12-01

A 2D-3D computational model for calculating a flow inside jet injectors that feed fuel components to a combustion chamber of a liquid rocket engine is described. The model is based on the gasdynamic calculation of compressible medium. Model software provides calculation of both one- and two-component injectors. Flow simulation in two-component injectors is realized using the scheme of separate supply of “gas-gas” or “gas-liquid” fuel components. An algorithm for converting a continuous liquid medium into a “cloud” of drops is described. Application areas of the developed model and the results of 2D simulation of injectors to obtain correction factors in the calculation formulas for fuel supply are discussed.

Water-supply potential of major streams and the Upper Floridan Aquifer in the vicinity of Savannah, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garza, Reggina; Krause, Richard E.

1997-01-01

Surface- and ground-water resources in the Savannah, Georgia, area were evaluated for potential water-supply development. Stream-discharge and water-quality data were analyzed for two major streams considered to be viable water-supply sources. A ground-water flow model was developed to be used in conjunction with other previously calibrated models to simulate the effects of additional pumpage on water levels near areas of saltwater intrusion at Brunswick and seawater encroachment at Hilton Head Island. Hypothetical scenarios also were simulated involving redistributions and small increases, and decreases in pumpage.

Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of a Wide Bandwidth Bipolar Power Supply for the Fast Correctors in the APS Upgrade

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Byeong M.; Wang, Ju

This paper presents the mathematical modeling and analysis of a wide bandwidth bipolar power supply for the fast correctors in the APS Upgrade. A wide bandwidth current regulator with a combined PI and phase-lead compensator has been newly proposed, analyzed, and simulated through both a mathematical model and a physical electronic circuit model using MATLAB and PLECS. The proposed regulator achieves a bandwidth with a -1.23dB attenuation and a 32.40° phase-delay at 10 kHz for a small signal less than 1% of the DC scale. The mathematical modeling and design, simulation results of a fast corrector power supply control systemmore » are presented in this paper.« less

National forest timber supply and stumpage markets in the western United States.

Treesearch

Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

1991-01-01

This paper presents an aggregate regional model of the National Forest timber supply process and the interaction of National Forest and non-National Forest supply in determining regional stumpage prices and harvest volumes. Model simulations track actual behavior in the Douglas-fir regional stumpage market with reasonable accuracy; projections for the next two decades...

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

PubMed

Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core

PubMed Central

Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201

A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia.

PubMed

Abas, Zuraida Abal; Ramli, Mohamad Raziff; Desa, Mohamad Ishak; Saleh, Nordin; Hanafiah, Ainul Nadziha; Aziz, Nuraini; Abidin, Zaheera Zainal; Shibghatullah, Abdul Samad; Rahman, Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul; Musa, Haslinda

2017-08-18

The paper aims to provide an insight into the significance of having a simulation model to forecast the supply of registered nurses for health workforce planning policy using System Dynamics. A model is highly in demand to predict the workforce demand for nurses in the future, which it supports for complete development of a needs-based nurse workforce projection using Malaysia as a case study. The supply model consists of three sub-models to forecast the number of registered nurses for the next 15 years: training model, population model and Full Time Equivalent (FTE) model. In fact, the training model is for predicting the number of newly registered nurses after training is completed. Furthermore, the population model is for indicating the number of registered nurses in the nation and the FTE model is useful for counting the number of registered nurses with direct patient care. Each model is described in detail with the logical connection and mathematical governing equation for accurate forecasting. The supply model is validated using error analysis approach in terms of the root mean square percent error and the Theil inequality statistics, which is mportant for evaluating the simulation results. Moreover, the output of simulation results provides a useful insight for policy makers as a what-if analysis is conducted. Some recommendations are proposed in order to deal with the nursing deficit. It must be noted that the results from the simulation model will be used for the next stage of the Needs-Based Nurse Workforce projection project. The impact of this study is that it provides the ability for greater planning and policy making with better predictions.

VASA: Interactive Computational Steering of Large Asynchronous Simulation Pipelines for Societal Infrastructure.

PubMed

Ko, Sungahn; Zhao, Jieqiong; Xia, Jing; Afzal, Shehzad; Wang, Xiaoyu; Abram, Greg; Elmqvist, Niklas; Kne, Len; Van Riper, David; Gaither, Kelly; Kennedy, Shaun; Tolone, William; Ribarsky, William; Ebert, David S

2014-12-01

We present VASA, a visual analytics platform consisting of a desktop application, a component model, and a suite of distributed simulation components for modeling the impact of societal threats such as weather, food contamination, and traffic on critical infrastructure such as supply chains, road networks, and power grids. Each component encapsulates a high-fidelity simulation model that together form an asynchronous simulation pipeline: a system of systems of individual simulations with a common data and parameter exchange format. At the heart of VASA is the Workbench, a visual analytics application providing three distinct features: (1) low-fidelity approximations of the distributed simulation components using local simulation proxies to enable analysts to interactively configure a simulation run; (2) computational steering mechanisms to manage the execution of individual simulation components; and (3) spatiotemporal and interactive methods to explore the combined results of a simulation run. We showcase the utility of the platform using examples involving supply chains during a hurricane as well as food contamination in a fast food restaurant chain.

Life Support with Failures and Variable Supply

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2010-01-01

The life support system for long duration missions will recycle oxygen and water to reduce the material resupply mass from Earth. The impact of life support failures was investigated by dynamic simulation of a lunar outpost habitat life support model. The model was modified to simulate resupply delays, power failures, recycling system failures, and storage failures. Many failures impact the lunar outpost water supply directly or indirectly, depending on the water balance and water storage. Failure effects on the water supply are reduced if Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) water use is low and the water supply is ample. Additional oxygen can be supplied by scavenging unused propellant or by production from regolith, but the amounts obtained can vary significantly. The requirements for oxygen and water can also vary significantly, especially for EVA. Providing storage buffers can improve efficiency and reliability, and minimize the chance of supply failing to meet demand. Life support failures and supply variations can be survivable if effective solutions are provided by the system design

Study on the optimization allocation of wind-solar in power system based on multi-region production simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhicheng; Yuan, Bo; Zhang, Fuqiang

2018-06-01

In this paper, a power supply optimization model is proposed. The model takes the minimum fossil energy consumption as the target, considering the output characteristics of the conventional power supply and the renewable power supply. The optimal capacity ratio of wind-solar in the power supply under various constraints is calculated, and the interrelation between conventional power supply and renewable energy is analyzed in the system of high proportion renewable energy integration. Using the model, we can provide scientific guidance for the coordinated and orderly development of renewable energy and conventional power sources.

Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Graeme

2010-01-01

The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

Simulation of switching overvoltages in the mine electric power supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanchenko, D. I.; Novozhilov, N. G.

2017-02-01

Overvoltages occur in mine power supply systems during switching off consumers with high inductive load, such as transformers, reactors and electrical machines. Overvoltages lead to an increase of insulation degradation rate and may cause electric faults, power outage, fire and explosion of methane and coal dust. This paper is dedicated to simulation of vacuum circuit breaker switching overvoltages in a mine power supply system by means of Simulink MATLAB. The model of the vacuum circuit breaker implements simulation of transient recovery voltage, current chopping and an electric arc. Obtained results were compared to available experimental data.

Modeling sediment supply of the Congo watershed since the last 23 ka.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molliex, Stéphane; Kettner, Albert J.; Laurent, Dimitri; Droz, Laurence; Marsset, Tania; Laraque, Alain; Rabineau, Marina

2017-04-01

The Congo River is the world's second river in term of drainage area (3.7 millions of km2) and water discharge (42,000 m3.s-1). Located in equatorial Africa, the basin extends over the two hemispheres, leading to an annual homogeneous repartition of climatic parameters and modest variation in intra-annual discharge. Monitored for decades, a large dataset is available for both the hydrology and sediment load for the Congo system. Moreover, the Quaternary Congo turbidite system geometry has been widely studied and an abundance of paleo-environmental parameters have been inferred from chemical proxies analyzed from offshore cores. These numerous data, both onshore and offshore, allow for accurate calibration of numeric modeling and for efficient comparison between observed and simulated data. This study aims (i) to quantify the evolution of sediment supply leaving the Congo watershed during the last 23 ka; (ii) to decipher the forcing parameters controlling the sediment supply over glacial/interglacial stages. HydroTrend is a model that simulates water discharge and sediment load leaving a hydrologic system. It is based on morphologic, climatic, hydrologic, lithologic, land cover and anthropogenic factors. After calibrating the present-day discharge and sediment load, we simulated discharge and sediment supply over 23 ka, integrating the changes in environmental conditions during this period. Results show that present-day simulations fit the observed data well if a significant part of sediments is being trapped by the catchment, in the floodplain. The long-term simulations show that the changes in climatic conditions (temperature and precipitations) between glacial and interglacial stages only account for a maximum variation of about 20 % of the sediment supply. The resulting land cover changes are most likely a more significant factor controlling the sediment supply; the loss of forest during colder and dryer stages can be responsible for up to 50 % of sediment supply increase.

Implementation of system dynamic simulation method to optimize profit in supply chain network of vegetable product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tama, I. P.; Akbar, Z.; Eunike, A.

2018-04-01

Vegetables are categorized as a perishable product, which is a product with short lifespan thus requires proper handling and planning to reduce losses caused by the short lifespan. In order to reduce the losses, coordination among the players in the supply chain is required. On the other hand, the decision in the supply chain of vegetables and other farming products in the traditional market of developing country is independent among the players. This research is conducted by using System Dynamic Simulation method to develop model and scenario by coordinating the supply quantity amongst players in the supply chain. The scenarios are developed based on newsboy inventory model. This study aims to compare scenarios combining tiers involved in coordination program. The result shows that coordination in supply chain increases total supply chain profit, although there will always be players who experienced decrements in profit. The scenario of coordination among the farmer, the distributor, and the wholesaler resulted in the highest increase in total supply chain profit compared to other coordination scenarios, with an increased value of 10.49%.

Exploring Tradeoffs in Demand-side and Supply-side Management of Urban Water Resources using Agent-based Modeling and Evolutionary Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.

2015-12-01

Urban water supply systems may be managed through supply-side and demand-side strategies, which focus on water source expansion and demand reductions, respectively. Supply-side strategies bear infrastructure and energy costs, while demand-side strategies bear costs of implementation and inconvenience to consumers. To evaluate the performance of demand-side strategies, the participation and water use adaptations of consumers should be simulated. In this study, a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework is developed to simulate consumer agents that change their consumption to affect the withdrawal from the water supply system, which, in turn influences operational policies and long-term resource planning. Agent-based models are encoded to represent consumers and a policy maker agent and are coupled with water resources system simulation models. The CAS framework is coupled with an evolutionary computation-based multi-objective methodology to explore tradeoffs in cost, inconvenience to consumers, and environmental impacts for both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Decisions are identified to specify storage levels in a reservoir that trigger (1) increases in the volume of water pumped through inter-basin transfers from an external reservoir and (2) drought stages, which restrict the volume of water that is allowed for residential outdoor uses. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for Arlington, Texas, water supply system to identify non-dominated strategies for an historic drought decade. Results demonstrate that pumping costs associated with maximizing environmental reliability exceed pumping costs associated with minimizing restrictions on consumer water use.

A Stochastic Simulator of a Blood Product Donation Environment with Demand Spikes and Supply Shocks

PubMed Central

An, Ming-Wen; Reich, Nicholas G.; Crawford, Stephen O.; Brookmeyer, Ron; Louis, Thomas A.; Nelson, Kenrad E.

2011-01-01

The availability of an adequate blood supply is a critical public health need. An influenza epidemic or another crisis affecting population mobility could create a critical donor shortage, which could profoundly impact blood availability. We developed a simulation model for the blood supply environment in the United States to assess the likely impact on blood availability of factors such as an epidemic. We developed a simulator of a multi-state model with transitions among states. Weekly numbers of blood units donated and needed were generated by negative binomial stochastic processes. The simulator allows exploration of the blood system under certain conditions of supply and demand rates, and can be used for planning purposes to prepare for sudden changes in the public's health. The simulator incorporates three donor groups (first-time, sporadic, and regular), immigration and emigration, deferral period, and adjustment factors for recruitment. We illustrate possible uses of the simulator by specifying input values for an -week flu epidemic, resulting in a moderate supply shock and demand spike (for example, from postponed elective surgeries), and different recruitment strategies. The input values are based in part on data from a regional blood center of the American Red Cross during –. Our results from these scenarios suggest that the key to alleviating deficit effects of a system shock may be appropriate timing and duration of recruitment efforts, in turn depending critically on anticipating shocks and rapidly implementing recruitment efforts. PMID:21814550

A stochastic simulator of a blood product donation environment with demand spikes and supply shocks.

PubMed

An, Ming-Wen; Reich, Nicholas G; Crawford, Stephen O; Brookmeyer, Ron; Louis, Thomas A; Nelson, Kenrad E

2011-01-01

The availability of an adequate blood supply is a critical public health need. An influenza epidemic or another crisis affecting population mobility could create a critical donor shortage, which could profoundly impact blood availability. We developed a simulation model for the blood supply environment in the United States to assess the likely impact on blood availability of factors such as an epidemic. We developed a simulator of a multi-state model with transitions among states. Weekly numbers of blood units donated and needed were generated by negative binomial stochastic processes. The simulator allows exploration of the blood system under certain conditions of supply and demand rates, and can be used for planning purposes to prepare for sudden changes in the public's health. The simulator incorporates three donor groups (first-time, sporadic, and regular), immigration and emigration, deferral period, and adjustment factors for recruitment. We illustrate possible uses of the simulator by specifying input values for an 8-week flu epidemic, resulting in a moderate supply shock and demand spike (for example, from postponed elective surgeries), and different recruitment strategies. The input values are based in part on data from a regional blood center of the American Red Cross during 1996-2005. Our results from these scenarios suggest that the key to alleviating deficit effects of a system shock may be appropriate timing and duration of recruitment efforts, in turn depending critically on anticipating shocks and rapidly implementing recruitment efforts.

Hybrid algorithms for fuzzy reverse supply chain network design.

PubMed

Che, Z H; Chiang, Tzu-An; Kuo, Y C; Cui, Zhihua

2014-01-01

In consideration of capacity constraints, fuzzy defect ratio, and fuzzy transport loss ratio, this paper attempted to establish an optimized decision model for production planning and distribution of a multiphase, multiproduct reverse supply chain, which addresses defects returned to original manufacturers, and in addition, develops hybrid algorithms such as Particle Swarm Optimization-Genetic Algorithm (PSO-GA), Genetic Algorithm-Simulated Annealing (GA-SA), and Particle Swarm Optimization-Simulated Annealing (PSO-SA) for solving the optimized model. During a case study of a multi-phase, multi-product reverse supply chain network, this paper explained the suitability of the optimized decision model and the applicability of the algorithms. Finally, the hybrid algorithms showed excellent solving capability when compared with original GA and PSO methods.

Hybrid Algorithms for Fuzzy Reverse Supply Chain Network Design

PubMed Central

Che, Z. H.; Chiang, Tzu-An; Kuo, Y. C.

2014-01-01

In consideration of capacity constraints, fuzzy defect ratio, and fuzzy transport loss ratio, this paper attempted to establish an optimized decision model for production planning and distribution of a multiphase, multiproduct reverse supply chain, which addresses defects returned to original manufacturers, and in addition, develops hybrid algorithms such as Particle Swarm Optimization-Genetic Algorithm (PSO-GA), Genetic Algorithm-Simulated Annealing (GA-SA), and Particle Swarm Optimization-Simulated Annealing (PSO-SA) for solving the optimized model. During a case study of a multi-phase, multi-product reverse supply chain network, this paper explained the suitability of the optimized decision model and the applicability of the algorithms. Finally, the hybrid algorithms showed excellent solving capability when compared with original GA and PSO methods. PMID:24892057

Water-resources optimization model for Santa Barbara, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

1998-01-01

A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought. The model, which links groundwater simulation with linear programming, has a planning horizon of 5 years. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply subject to: water demand constraints, hydraulic head constraints to control seawater intrusion, and water capacity constraints. The decision variables are montly water deliveries from surface water and groundwater. The state variables are hydraulic heads. The drought of 1947-51 is the city's worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. The simulation-optimization model was applied using three reservoir operation rules. In addition, the model's sensitivity to demand, carry over [the storage of water in one year for use in the later year(s)], head constraints, and capacity constraints was tested.

Plasma Sheet Circulation Pathways

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Thomas E.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.; Damiano, P.; Lotko, W.

2008-01-01

Global simulations of Earth's magnetosphere in the solar wind compute the pathways of plasma circulation through the plasma sheet. We address the pathways that supply and drain the plasma sheet, by coupling single fluid simulations with Global Ion Kinetic simulations of the outer magnetosphere and the Comprehensive Ring Current Model of the inner magnetosphere, including plasmaspheric plasmas. We find that the plasma sheet is supplied with solar wind plasmas via the magnetospheric flanks, and that this supply is most effective for northward IMF. For southward IMF, the innermost plasma sheet and ring current region are directly supplied from the flanks, with an asymmetry of single particle entry favoring the dawn flank. The central plasma sheet (near midnight) is supplied, as expected, from the lobes and polar cusps, but the near-Earth supply consists mainly of slowly moving ionospheric outflows for typical conditions. Work with the recently developed multi-fluid LFM simulation shows transport via plasma "fingers" extending Earthward from the flanks, suggestive of an interchange instability. We investigate this with solar wind ion trajectories, seeking to understand the fingering mechanisms and effects on transport rates.

77 FR 31026 - Use of Computer Simulation of the United States Blood Supply in Support of Planning for Emergency...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-24

... enhancements to extend the model predictions from red blood cell units to other blood components, such as...] Use of Computer Simulation of the United States Blood Supply in Support of Planning for Emergency...: Notice of public workshop. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing a public workshop...

Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walsum, P. E. V.

2011-11-01

Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a good soil or from capillary rise. With good supply of moisture, the dynamic model simulates up to 10% less actual evapotranspiration than the static one in the example. This can lead to cases where the dynamic model predicts a slight increase of the recharge in a climate scenario, where the static model predicts a decrease. The use of a dynamic model also affects the simulated demand for surface water from external sources; especially the timing is affected. The proposed modelling approach uses postulated relationships that require validation with controlled field trials. In the Netherlands there is a lack of experimental facilities for performing such validations.

Employing a Modified Diffuser Momentum Model to Simulate Ventilation of the Orion CEV (DRAFT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Straus, John; Ball, Tyler; OHara, William; Barido, Richard

2011-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to model the flow field in the Orion CEV cabin. The CFD model employs a momentum model used to account for the effect of supply grilles on the supply flow. The momentum model is modified to account for non-uniform velocity profiles at the approach of the supply grille. The modified momentum model is validated against a detailed vane-resolved model before inclusion into the Orion CEV cabin model. Results for this comparison, as well as that of a single ventilation configuration are presented.

Analysis of Naval Ammunition Stock Positioning

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

model takes once the Monte -Carlo simulation determines the assigned probabilities for site-to-site locations. Column two shows how the simulation...stockpiles and positioning them at coastal Navy facilities. A Monte -Carlo simulation model was developed to simulate expected cost and delivery...TERMS supply chain management, Monte -Carlo simulation, risk, delivery performance, stock positioning 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 85 16. PRICE CODE 17

Application of SWMM in Water Resources Management: A Community Scale Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuan-Hua; Tung, Ching-Pin

2015-04-01

Under the impacts of climate change, water resource management faces a serious challenge. Due to extremely events, the water supply system is hard to maintain stable water supply. In order to decrease the pressure of centralized water supply system, the water demand management should be strengthened. The storm water management model (SWMM) is widely used to simulate surface runoff, and it has been improved to have the ability of continuous simulation. In this study, storm water management model (SWMM) is applied to simulate surface runoff and integrated into the framework of water resource management for a rural community scale. In a rural community, the surface runoff may be collected and treated by wetlands for later uses. The reclaimed water from wetlands may become a new water resource for non-contact domestic water uses, or be reused to meet irrigating water demand. Thus, the water demand from the centralized system can be reduced, and the water supply system may have lower risk under the climate change. On the other hand, SWMM can simulate the measures of low impact development (LID), such as bio-retention cell, green roof, rain barrel etc. The decentralized measures, LID, may not only reduce the runoff and delay the peak flow, and but also provide the service of water supply. In this study, LID is applied to water resource management of a rural community, and combined with the centralized water supply system. The results show the application of SWMM to water resources management in a community scale study. Besides, the effectiveness of LID on water supply is also evaluated.

Simulation and Modeling Efforts to Support Decision Making in Healthcare Supply Chain Management

PubMed Central

Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja

2014-01-01

Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM) by improving the decision making pertaining processes' efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM) has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges. PMID:24683333

Simulating future supply of and requirements for human resources for health in high-income OECD countries.

PubMed

Tomblin Murphy, Gail; Birch, Stephen; MacKenzie, Adrian; Rigby, Janet

2016-12-12

As part of efforts to inform the development of a global human resources for health (HRH) strategy, a comprehensive methodology for estimating HRH supply and requirements was described in a companion paper. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of that methodology, using data publicly available online, to simulate the supply of and requirements for midwives, nurses, and physicians in the 32 high-income member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) up to 2030. A model combining a stock-and-flow approach to simulate the future supply of each profession in each country-adjusted according to levels of HRH participation and activity-and a needs-based approach to simulate future HRH requirements was used. Most of the data to populate the model were obtained from the OECD's online indicator database. Other data were obtained from targeted internet searches and documents gathered as part of the companion paper. Relevant recent measures for each model parameter were found for at least one of the included countries. In total, 35% of the desired current data elements were found; assumed values were used for the other current data elements. Multiple scenarios were used to demonstrate the sensitivity of the simulations to different assumed future values of model parameters. Depending on the assumed future values of each model parameter, the simulated HRH gaps across the included countries could range from shortfalls of 74 000 midwives, 3.2 million nurses, and 1.2 million physicians to surpluses of 67 000 midwives, 2.9 million nurses, and 1.0 million physicians by 2030. Despite important gaps in the data publicly available online and the short time available to implement it, this paper demonstrates the basic feasibility of a more comprehensive, population needs-based approach to estimating HRH supply and requirements than most of those currently being used. HRH planners in individual countries, working with their respective stakeholder groups, would have more direct access to data on the relevant planning parameters and would thus be in an even better position to implement such an approach.

The Effects of Various Fidelity Factors on Simulated Helicopter Hover

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

18 VISUAL DISPLAY ....... ....................... ... 20 §. AUDITORY CUES ........... ........................ 23 • SHIP MOTION MODEL...and DiCarlo, 1974), the evaluation of visual, auditory , and motion cues for helicopter simulation (Parrish, Houck, and Martin, 1977), and the...supply the cue. As the tilt should be supplied subliminally , a forward/aft translation must be used to cue the acceleration’s onset. If only rotation

Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stamber, Kevin L.; Vugrin, Eric D.; Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Warren, Drake E.; Welk, Margaret E.

2011-01-01

The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

Cost-effective practices in the blood service sector.

PubMed

Katsaliaki, Korina

2008-05-01

The objective of this study is to recommend alternative policies, which are tested on a computer simulation model, towards a more cost-effective management of the blood supply chain in the UK. With the use of primary and secondary data from the National Blood Service (NBS) and the supplied hospitals, statistical analysis is conducted and a detailed discrete event simulation model of a vertical part of the UK supply chain of blood products is developed to test and identify good ordering, inventory and distribution practices. Fewer outdates, group substitutions, shortages and deliveries could be achieved by blood banks: holding stock of rare blood groups of red blood cells (RBC), having a second routine delivery per weekday, exercising a more insensitive ordering point for RBC, reducing the total crossmatch release period to less than 1.5 days, increasing the transfusion-to-crossmatch ratio to 70%, adhering to an age-based issuing of orders, holding RBC stock of a weighted average of approximately 4 days. The blood supply simulation model can offer useful pieces of advice to the stakeholders of the examined system which leads to cost reductions and increased safety. Moreover, it provides a great range of experimental capabilities in a risk-free environment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Amy Cha-Tien; Downes, Paula Sue; Heinen, Russell

Analysis of chemical supply chains is an inherently complex task, given the dependence of these supply chains on multiple infrastructure systems (e.g., the petroleum sector, transportation, etc.). This effort requires data and information at various levels of resolution, ranging from network-level distribution systems to individual chemical reactions. Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) has integrated its existing simulation and infrastructure analysis capabilities with chemical data models to analyze the chemical supply chains of several nationally critical chemical commodities. This paper describes how Sandia models the ethylene supply chain; that is, the supply chain for the most widely used raw material for plasticsmore » production including a description of the types of data and modeling capabilities that are required to represent the ethylene supply chain. The paper concludes with a description of Sandia's use the model to project how the supply chain would be affected by and adapt to a disruptive scenario hurricane.« less

DairyWise, a whole-farm dairy model.

PubMed

Schils, R L M; de Haan, M H A; Hemmer, J G A; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A; de Boer, J A; Evers, A G; Holshof, G; van Middelkoop, J C; Zom, R L G

2007-11-01

A whole-farm dairy model was developed and evaluated. The DairyWise model is an empirical model that simulated technical, environmental, and financial processes on a dairy farm. The central component is the FeedSupply model that balanced the herd requirements, as generated by the DairyHerd model, and the supply of homegrown feeds, as generated by the crop models for grassland and corn silage. The output of the FeedSupply model was used as input for several technical, environmental, and economic submodels. The submodels simulated a range of farm aspects such as nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, nitrate leaching, ammonia emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and a financial farm budget. The final output was a farm plan describing all material and nutrient flows and the consequences on the environment and economy. Evaluation of DairyWise was performed with 2 data sets consisting of 29 dairy farms. The evaluation showed that DairyWise was able to simulate gross margin, concentrate intake, nitrogen surplus, nitrate concentration in ground water, and crop yields. The variance accounted for ranged from 37 to 84%, and the mean differences between modeled and observed values varied between -5 to +3% per set of farms. We conclude that DairyWise is a powerful tool for integrated scenario development and evaluation for scientists, policy makers, extension workers, teachers and farmers.

The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

Treesearch

P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

1987-01-01

TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

Optimization of urban water supply portfolios combining infrastructure capacity expansion and water use decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Marques, G.; Mendes, C. A.

2015-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under rapidly growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty, and scarce water supplies requires a strategic combination of various supply sources for added reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources merits decisions of what and when to expand, and how much to use of each available sources accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. The present research provides a framework and an integrated methodology that optimizes the expansion of various water supply alternatives using dynamic programming and combining both short term and long term optimization of water use and simulation of water allocation. A case study in Bahia Do Rio Dos Sinos in Southern Brazil is presented. The framework couples an optimization model with quadratic programming model in GAMS with WEAP, a rain runoff simulation models that hosts the water supply infrastructure features and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions and (b) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion. Results also highlight the potential of various water supply alternatives including, conservation, groundwater, and infrastructural enhancements over time. The framework proves its usefulness for planning its transferability to similarly urbanized systems.

Study on Matching a 300 MVA Motor Generator with an Ohmic Heating Power Supply in HL-2M

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jianfei; Xuan, Weimin; Wang, Haibing; Li, Huajun; Wang, Yingqiao; Wang, Shujin

2013-03-01

A new 300 MVA/1350 MJ motor generator (MG) will be built to feed all of the poloidal field power supplies (PFPS) and auxiliary heating power supplies of the HL-2M tokamak. The MG has a vertical-shaft salient pole 6-phase synchronous generator and a coaxial 8500 kW induction motor. The Ohmic heating power supply (OHPS) consisting of 4-quadrant DC pulsed convertor is the one with the highest parameters among the PFPS. Therefore, the match between the generator and the OHPS is very important. The matching study with Matlab/Simulink is described in this paper. The simulation results show that the subtransient reactance of the generator is closely related to the inversion operation of the OHPS. By setting various subtransient reactance in the simulation generator model and considering the cost reduction, the optimized parameters are obtained as x″d = 0.405 p.u. at 100 Hz for the generator. The models built in the simulation can be used as an important tool for studying the dynamic characteristics and the control strategy of other HL-2M PFPSes.

Simulation modeling for the health care manager.

PubMed

Kennedy, Michael H

2009-01-01

This article addresses the use of simulation software to solve administrative problems faced by health care managers. Spreadsheet add-ins, process simulation software, and discrete event simulation software are available at a range of costs and complexity. All use the Monte Carlo method to realistically integrate probability distributions into models of the health care environment. Problems typically addressed by health care simulation modeling are facility planning, resource allocation, staffing, patient flow and wait time, routing and transportation, supply chain management, and process improvement.

Forest biomass supply logistics for a power plant using the discrete-event simulation approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mobini, Mahdi; Sowlati, T.; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine

This study investigates the logistics of supplying forest biomass to a potential power plant. Due to the complexities in such a supply logistics system, a simulation model based on the framework of Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) is developed in this study to evaluate the cost of delivered forest biomass, the equilibrium moisture content, and carbon emissions from the logistics operations. The model is applied to a proposed case of 300 MW power plant in Quesnel, BC, Canada. The results show that the biomass demand of the power plant would not be met every year. The weighted averagemore » cost of delivered biomass to the gate of the power plant is about C$ 90 per dry tonne. Estimates of equilibrium moisture content of delivered biomass and CO2 emissions resulted from the processes are also provided.« less

A performance evaluation of ACO and SA TSP in a supply chain network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, T. Srinivas

2017-07-01

Supply Chain management and E commerce business solutions are one of the prominent areas of active research. In our paper we have modelled a supply chain model which aggregates all the manufacturers requirement and the products are supplied to all the manufacturer through a common vehicle routing algorithm. An appropriate tsp has been constructed for all the manufacturers which determines the shortest route thru which the aggregated material can be supplied in the shortest possible time. In this paper we have solved the shortest route through constructing a Simulated annealing algorithm and Ant colony algorithm and their performance is evaluated.

Simulating partially illegal markets of private tanker water providers on the country level: A multi-agent, hydroeconomic case-study of Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, C. J. A.; Yoon, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Sigel, K.; Talozi, S.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.; Harou, J. J.; Mustafa, D.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Rajsekhar, D.; Avisse, N.; Zhang, H.

2016-12-01

In arid countries around the world, markets of private small-scale water providers, mostly delivering water via tanker trucks, have emerged to balance the shortcomings of public water supply systems. While these markets can provide substantial contributions to meeting customers' water demands, they often partially rely on illegal water abstractions, thus imposing an unregulated and unmonitored strain on ground and surface water resources. Despite their important impacts on water users' welfare and resource sustainability, these markets are still poorly understood. We use a multi-agent, hydroeconomic simulation model, developed as part of the Jordan Water Project, to investigate the role of these markets in a country-wide case-study of Jordan. Jordan's water sector is characterized by a severe and growing scarcity of water resources, high intermittency in the public water network, and a strongly increasing demand due to an unprecedented refugee crisis. The tanker water market serves an important role in providing water from rural wells to households and commercial enterprises, especially during supply interruptions. In order to overcome the lack of direct data about this partially illegal market, we simulate demand and supply for tanker water. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. A market algorithm is then used to match rural supplies with users' demands, accounting for survey data on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is used to gain insights into the size of the tanker markets in all 89 subdistricts of Jordan and their responsiveness to various policy interventions. A dynamic coupling of the model with a country-wide groundwater model allows for projections of the spatial development of the tanker market over time. Accounting for this important supply source will be essential for the formulation of any policy aiming to reconcile the interests of water users with resource sustainability.

Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

2017-12-01

Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

Simulation modeling of domestic and international intermodal supply paths.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

supply of material to a manufacturing facility obviously has a major impact on enterprise : performance, whether measured in terms of cost, timeliness, quality, etc. Most material that is : input to a manufacturing process is transported to the manuf...

Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchand, P.; Carr, J. A.; Dell'Angelo, J.; Fader, M.; Gephart, J.; Kummu, M.; Magliocca, N. R.; Porkka, M.; Puma, M. J.; Ratajczak, Z.; Rulli, M. C.; Seekell, D.; Suweis, S. S.; Tavoni, A.; D'Odorico, P.

2016-12-01

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17-year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, non-linear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

Reserves and Trade Jointly Determine Exposure to Food Supply Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchand, Philippe; Carr, Joel A.; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; Fader, Marianela; Gephart, Jessica A.; Kummu, Matti; Magliocca, Nicholas; Porkka, Miina; Puma, Michael J.; Zak, Ratajczak

2016-01-01

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchand, Philippe; Carr, Joel A.; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; Fader, Marianela; Gephart, Jessica A.; Kummu, Matti; Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Porkka, Miina; Puma, Michael J.; Ratajczak, Zak; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Seekell, David A.; Suweis, Samir; Tavoni, Alessandro; D'Odorico, Paolo

2016-09-01

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

Generalized Simulation Model for a Switched-Mode Power Supply Design Course Using MATLAB/SIMULINK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liao, Wei-Hsin; Wang, Shun-Chung; Liu, Yi-Hua

2012-01-01

Switched-mode power supplies (SMPS) are becoming an essential part of many electronic systems as the industry drives toward miniaturization and energy efficiency. However, practical SMPS design courses are seldom offered. In this paper, a generalized MATLAB/SIMULINK modeling technique is first presented. A proposed practical SMPS design course at…

An Agent-Based Modeling Framework and Application for the Generic Nuclear Fuel Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidden, Matthew J.

Key components of a novel methodology and implementation of an agent-based, dynamic nuclear fuel cycle simulator, Cyclus , are presented. The nuclear fuel cycle is a complex, physics-dependent supply chain. To date, existing dynamic simulators have not treated constrained fuel supply, time-dependent, isotopic-quality based demand, or fuel fungibility particularly well. Utilizing an agent-based methodology that incorporates sophisticated graph theory and operations research techniques can overcome these deficiencies. This work describes a simulation kernel and agents that interact with it, highlighting the Dynamic Resource Exchange (DRE), the supply-demand framework at the heart of the kernel. The key agent-DRE interaction mechanisms are described, which enable complex entity interaction through the use of physics and socio-economic models. The translation of an exchange instance to a variant of the Multicommodity Transportation Problem, which can be solved feasibly or optimally, follows. An extensive investigation of solution performance and fidelity is then presented. Finally, recommendations for future users of Cyclus and the DRE are provided.

[Malfunction simulation by spaceflight training simulator].

PubMed

Chang, Tian-chun; Zhang, Lian-hua; Xue, Liang; Lian, Shun-guo

2005-04-01

To implement malfunction simulation in spaceflight training simulator. The principle of malfunction simulation was defined according to spacecraft malfunction predict and its countermeasures. The malfunction patterns were classified, and malfunction type was confirmed. A malfunction simulation model was established, and the malfunction simulation was realized by math simulation. According to the requirement of astronaut training, a spacecraft subsystem malfunction simulation model was established and realized, such as environment control and life support, GNC, push, power supply, heat control, data management, measure control and communication, structure and so on. The malfunction simulation function implemented in the spaceflight training simulator satisfied the requirements for astronaut training.

[Management of allocation of positions for specialist medical training].

PubMed

Alonso, M I

2003-01-01

Currently there is a large imbalance between supply and demand for medical specialists in the Spanish Health System. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the possible effects of current policies of allocating vacancies for interns and residents as well as to describe several measures and alternative policies. Using the methodology of System Dynamics, we designed a simulation model of the allocation process. Based on the validated model, possible changes in the system through time in response to diverse allocation policies were simulated. Specifically, changes in the accumulated number of graduates who over the years have remained without specialty, the number of unemployed specialists, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the period under consideration were observed. The results obtained from the simulation indicate that allocation policies such as the current one tends to reduce the accumulated number of graduates without specialty, due to the philosophy characterizing this policy, but that it considerably increases the number of unemployed specialists and aggravates the supply-demand imbalance. In the simulation, this tendency remained over time even though more restrictive measures in numerus clausus and retirement age were adopted. Equally, a policy based on social needs and aware of delays in training would substantially contribute to eliminating unemployment among specialists and supply-demand imbalance over time. If such a policy were combined with the above-mentioned measures the results would be even better, more rapidly eliminating graduates without specialty, unemployed specialists, and supply-demand imbalances. If the Health Administration continues with the current system of allocation of places, the present imbalance in supply and demand will become even worse. Therefore, new and far-sighted measures and policies are required, as well as greater coordination between undergraduate and postgraduate training.

Desktop Modeling and Simulation: Parsimonious, yet Effective Discrete-Event Simulation Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, James R.

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates how quickly students can be trained to construct useful discrete-event simulation models using Excel The typical supply chain used by many large national retailers is described, and an Excel-based simulation model is constructed of it The set of programming and simulation skills required for development of that model are then determined we conclude that six hours of training are required to teach the skills to MBA students . The simulation presented here contains all fundamental functionallty of a simulation model, and so our result holds for any discrete-event simulation model. We argue therefore that Industry workers with the same technical skill set as students having completed one year in an MBA program can be quickly trained to construct simulation models. This result gives credence to the efficacy of Desktop Modeling and Simulation whereby simulation analyses can be quickly developed, run, and analyzed with widely available software, namely Excel.

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

Modeling the effects of naturally occurring organic carbon on chlorinated ethene transport to a public supply well

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapelle, Francis H.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Widdowson, Mark A.

2013-01-01

The vulnerability of public supply wells to chlorinated ethene (CE) contamination in part depends on the availability of naturally occurring organic carbon to consume dissolved oxygen (DO) and initiate reductive dechlorination. This was quantified by building a mass balance model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is widely used for public water supply in New Jersey. This model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional (3D) MODFLOW model to the approximate capture zone of a single public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. This local model was then used to compute a mass balance between dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and adsorbed organic carbon (AOC) that act as electron donors and DO, CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors (EAs) using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. SEAM3D was constrained by varying concentrations of DO and DOC entering the aquifer via recharge, varying the bioavailable fraction of POC in aquifer sediments, and comparing observed and simulated vertical concentration profiles of DO and DOC. This procedure suggests that approximately 15% of the POC present in aquifer materials is readily bioavailable. Model simulations indicate that transport of perchloroethene (PCE) and its daughter products trichloroethene (TCE), cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE), and vinyl chloride (VC) to the public supply well is highly sensitive to the assumed bioavailable fraction of POC, concentrations of DO entering the aquifer with recharge, and the position of simulated PCE source areas in the flow field. The results are less sensitive to assumed concentrations of DOC in aquifer recharge. The mass balance approach used in this study also indicates that hydrodynamic processes such as advective mixing, dispersion, and sorption account for a significant amount of the observed natural attenuation in this system.

Modeling the Effects of Naturally Occurring Organic Carbon on Chlorinated Ethene Transport to a Public Supply Well†

PubMed Central

Chapelle, Francis H; Kauffman, Leon J; Widdowson, Mark A

2014-01-01

The vulnerability of public supply wells to chlorinated ethene (CE) contamination in part depends on the availability of naturally occurring organic carbon to consume dissolved oxygen (DO) and initiate reductive dechlorination. This was quantified by building a mass balance model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is widely used for public water supply in New Jersey. This model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional (3D) MODFLOW model to the approximate capture zone of a single public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. This local model was then used to compute a mass balance between dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and adsorbed organic carbon (AOC) that act as electron donors and DO, CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors (EAs) using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. SEAM3D was constrained by varying concentrations of DO and DOC entering the aquifer via recharge, varying the bioavailable fraction of POC in aquifer sediments, and comparing observed and simulated vertical concentration profiles of DO and DOC. This procedure suggests that approximately 15% of the POC present in aquifer materials is readily bioavailable. Model simulations indicate that transport of perchloroethene (PCE) and its daughter products trichloroethene (TCE), cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE), and vinyl chloride (VC) to the public supply well is highly sensitive to the assumed bioavailable fraction of POC, concentrations of DO entering the aquifer with recharge, and the position of simulated PCE source areas in the flow field. The results are less sensitive to assumed concentrations of DOC in aquifer recharge. The mass balance approach used in this study also indicates that hydrodynamic processes such as advective mixing, dispersion, and sorption account for a significant amount of the observed natural attenuation in this system. PMID:24372440

Innovative Tools for Water Quality/Quantity Management: New York City's Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Porter, J.; Sheer, D. P.; Pyke, G.

2011-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies more than 1 billion gallons of water per day to over 9 million customers. Recently, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST), a state-of-the-art decision support system to provide computational and predictive support for water supply operations and planning. This presentation describes the technical structure of OST, including the underlying water supply and water quality models, data sources and database management, reservoir inflow forecasts, and the functionalities required to meet the needs of a diverse group of end users. OST is a major upgrade of DEP's current water supply - water quality model, developed to evaluate alternatives for controlling turbidity in NYC's Catskill reservoirs. While the current model relies on historical hydrologic and meteorological data, OST can be driven by forecasted future conditions. It will receive a variety of near-real-time data from a number of sources. OST will support two major types of simulations: long-term, for evaluating policy or infrastructure changes over an extended period of time; and short-term "position analysis" (PA) simulations, consisting of multiple short simulations, all starting from the same initial conditions. Typically, the starting conditions for a PA run will represent those for the current day and traces of forecasted hydrology will drive the model for the duration of the simulation period. The result of these simulations will be a distribution of future system states based on system operating rules and the range of input ensemble streamflow predictions. DEP managers will analyze the output distributions and make operation decisions using risk-based metrics such as probability of refill. Currently, in the developmental stages of OST, forecasts are based on antecedent hydrologic conditions and are statistical in nature. The statistical algorithm is a relatively simple and versatile, but lacks short-term skill critical for water quality and spill management. To improve short-term skill, OST will ultimately operate with meteorologically driven hydrologic forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS). OST functionalities will support a wide range of DEP uses, including short term operational projections, outage planning and emergency management, operating rule development, and water supply planning. A core use of OST will be to inform reservoir management strategies to control and mitigate turbidity events while ensuring water supply reliability. OST will also allow DEP to manage its complex reservoir system to meet multiple objectives, including ecological flows, tailwater fisheries and recreational releases, and peak flow mitigation for downstream communities.

Modeling long-term trends of chlorinated ethene contamination at a public supply well

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapelle, Francis H.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Widdowson, Mark A.

2015-01-01

A mass-balance solute-transport modeling approach was used to investigate the effects of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) volume, composition, and generation of daughter products on simulated and measured long-term trends of chlorinated ethene (CE) concentrations at a public supply well. The model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional MODFLOW model to the capture zone of a public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. The local model was then used to simulate the interactions between naturally occurring organic carbon that acts as an electron donor, and dissolved oxygen (DO), CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. The modeling results indicate that asymmetry between rapidly rising and more gradual falling concentration trends over time suggests a DNAPL rather than a dissolved source of CEs. Peak concentrations of CEs are proportional to the volume and composition of the DNAPL source. The persistence of contamination, which can vary from a few years to centuries, is proportional to DNAPL volume, but is unaffected by DNAPL composition. These results show that monitoring CE concentrations in raw water produced by impacted public supply wells over time can provide useful information concerning the nature of contaminant sources and the likely future persistence of contamination.

The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance.

PubMed

Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

2016-01-01

In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors' influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of consumer rights protection and the level of legal protection of consumer rights on the risk spread of food safety. This model contributes to the explicit investigation of the influence relationship among supply-demand factors, the regulation behavioral choice of government, the behavioral choice of food supply chain members and food safety risk spread. And this paper provides a new viewpoint for considering food safety risk spread in the food supply chain, which has a great reference for food safety management.

Addressing multi-use issues in sustainable forest management with signal-transfer modeling

Treesearch

Robert J. Luxmoore; William W. Hargrove; M. Lynn Tharp; W. Mac Post; Michael W. Berry; Karen S. Minser; Wendell P. Cropper; Dale W. Johnson; Boris Zeide; Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson

2002-01-01

Management decisions concerning impacts of projected changes in environmental and social conditions on multi-use forest products and services, such as productivity, water supply or carbon sequestration, may be facilitated with signal-transfer modeling. This simulation method utilizes a hierarchy of simulators in which the integrated responses (signals) from smaller-...

A Simulation Model Articulation of the REA Ontology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurier, Wim; Poels, Geert

This paper demonstrates how the REA enterprise ontology can be used to construct simulation models for business processes, value chains and collaboration spaces in supply chains. These models support various high-level and operational management simulation applications, e.g. the analysis of enterprise sustainability and day-to-day planning. First, the basic constructs of the REA ontology and the ExSpect modelling language for simulation are introduced. Second, collaboration space, value chain and business process models and their conceptual dependencies are shown, using the ExSpect language. Third, an exhibit demonstrates the use of value chain models in predicting the financial performance of an enterprise.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars, based on modeling supply chain logistics.

PubMed

Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E

2010-10-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.

Exploring the Dynamics and Modeling National Budget as a Supply Chain System: A Proposal for Reengineering the Budgeting Process and for Developing a Management Flight Simulator

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Elmendorf, D. W., & Gregory Mankiw , N. (1999). Government debt. Handbook of Macroeconomics , 1, 1615-1669. European Union. European financial stability...budget process, based on the supply chain demand management process principles of operations and it is introduced the idea of developing a Budget... principles of systems dynamics, a proposal for the development of a Budget Management Flight Simulator, that will operate as a learning and educational

Development of an Assessment Model for Sustainable Supply Chain Management in Batik Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubiena, G. F.; Ma’ruf, A.

2018-03-01

This research proposes a dynamic assessment model for sustainable supply chain management in batik industry. The proposed model identifies the dynamic relationship between economic aspect, environment aspect and social aspect. The economic aspect refers to the supply chain operation reference model. The environment aspect uses carbon emissions and liquid waste as the attribute assessment, while the social aspect focus on employee’s welfare. Lean manufacturing concept was implemented as an alternative approach to sustainability. The simulation result shows that the average of sustainability score for 5 years increased from 65,3% to 70%. Future experiments will be conducted on design improvements to reach the company target on sustainability score.

6 DOF Nonlinear AUV Simulation Toolbox

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-01-01

is to supply a flexible 3D -simulation platform for motion visualization, in-lab debugging and testing of mission-specific strategies as well as those...Explorer are modular designed [Smith] in order to cut time and cost for vehicle recontlguration. A flexible 3D -simulation platform is desired to... 3D models. Current implemented modules include a nonlinear dynamic model for the OEX, shared memory and semaphore manager tools, shared memory monitor

China's Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

2016-07-01

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China's supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007-2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China's rare earth supply, translating into 59-65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14-16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

China’s rare earth supply chain: Illegal production, and response to new cerium demand

DOE PAGES

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

2016-03-29

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China’s supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructedmore » a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the U.S. market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007 to 2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China’s rare earth supply, translating into 59–65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14–16% illegal light rare earths. There would be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Lastly, we illustrated revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.« less

China’s rare earth supply chain: Illegal production, and response to new cerium demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China’s supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructedmore » a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the U.S. market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007 to 2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China’s rare earth supply, translating into 59–65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14–16% illegal light rare earths. There would be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Lastly, we illustrated revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

High Level Architecture Distributed Space System Simulation for Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization Simulation Smackdown

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zuqun

2011-01-01

Modeling and Simulation plays a very important role in mission design. It not only reduces design cost, but also prepares astronauts for their mission tasks. The SISO Smackdown is a simulation event that facilitates modeling and simulation in academia. The scenario of this year s Smackdown was to simulate a lunar base supply mission. The mission objective was to transfer Earth supply cargo to a lunar base supply depot and retrieve He-3 to take back to Earth. Federates for this scenario include the environment federate, Earth-Moon transfer vehicle, lunar shuttle, lunar rover, supply depot, mobile ISRU plant, exploratory hopper, and communication satellite. These federates were built by teams from all around the world, including teams from MIT, JSC, University of Alabama in Huntsville, University of Bordeaux from France, and University of Genoa from Italy. This paper focuses on the lunar shuttle federate, which was programmed by the USRP intern team from NASA JSC. The shuttle was responsible for provide transportation between lunar orbit and the lunar surface. The lunar shuttle federate was built using the NASA standard simulation package called Trick, and it was extended with HLA functions using TrickHLA. HLA functions of the lunar shuttle federate include sending and receiving interaction, publishing and subscribing attributes, and packing and unpacking fixed record data. The dynamics model of the lunar shuttle was modeled with three degrees of freedom, and the state propagation was obeying the law of two body dynamics. The descending trajectory of the lunar shuttle was designed by first defining a unique descending orbit in 2D space, and then defining a unique orbit in 3D space with the assumption of a non-rotating moon. Finally this assumption was taken away to define the initial position of the lunar shuttle so that it will start descending a second after it joins the execution. VPN software from SonicWall was used to connect federates with RTI during testing and the Smackdown event. HLA software from Pitch Technology and MAK Technology were used to edit and extend FOM and provide HLA services for federation execution. The SISO Smackdown event for 2011 was held in Boston, Massachusetts. The federation execution lasted for one hour, and the event was very successful in catching the attention of university students and faculties.

Emulation of rocket trajectory based on a six degree of freedom model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenpeng; Li, Fan; Wu, Zhong; Li, Rong

2008-10-01

In this paper, a 6-DOF motion mathematical model is discussed. It is consisted of body dynamics and kinematics block, aero dynamics block and atmosphere block. Based on Simulink, the whole rocket trajectory mathematical model is developed. In this model, dynamic system simulation becomes easy and visual. The method of modularization design gives more convenience to transplant. At last, relevant data is given to be validated by Monte Carlo means. Simulation results show that the flight trajectory of the rocket can be simulated preferably by means of this model, and it also supplies a necessary simulating tool for the development of control system.

Approximate analytical solution for induction heating of solid cylinders

DOE PAGES

Jankowski, Todd Andrew; Pawley, Norma Helen; Gonzales, Lindsey Michal; ...

2015-10-20

An approximate solution to the mathematical model for induction heating of a solid cylinder in a cylindrical induction coil is presented here. The coupled multiphysics model includes equations describing the electromagnetic field in the heated object, a heat transfer simulation to determine temperature of the heated object, and an AC circuit simulation of the induction heating power supply. A multiple-scale perturbation method is used to solve the multiphysics model. The approximate analytical solution yields simple closed-form expressions for the electromagnetic field and heat generation rate in the solid cylinder, for the equivalent impedance of the associated tank circuit, and formore » the frequency response of a variable frequency power supply driving the tank circuit. The solution developed here is validated by comparing predicted power supply frequency to both experimental measurements and calculated values from finite element analysis for heating of graphite cylinders in an induction furnace. The simple expressions from the analytical solution clearly show the functional dependence of the power supply frequency on the material properties of the load and the geometrical characteristics of the furnace installation. In conclusion, the expressions developed here provide physical insight into observations made during load signature analysis of induction heating.« less

Contribution to the modelling and analysis of logistics system performance by Petri nets and simulation models: Application in a supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azougagh, Yassine; Benhida, Khalid; Elfezazi, Said

2016-02-01

In this paper, the focus is on studying the performance of complex systems in a supply chain context by developing a structured modelling approach based on the methodology ASDI (Analysis, Specification, Design and Implementation) by combining the modelling by Petri nets and simulation using ARENA. The linear approach typically followed in conducting of this kind of problems has to cope with a difficulty of modelling due to the complexity and the number of parameters of concern. Therefore, the approach used in this work is able to structure modelling a way to cover all aspects of the performance study. The modelling structured approach is first introduced before being applied to the case of an industrial system in the field of phosphate. Results of the performance indicators obtained from the models developed, permitted to test the behaviour and fluctuations of this system and to develop improved models of the current situation. In addition, in this paper, it was shown how Arena software can be adopted to simulate complex systems effectively. The method in this research can be applied to investigate various improvements scenarios and their consequences before implementing them in reality.

Hospital influenza pandemic stockpiling needs: A computer simulation.

PubMed

Abramovich, Mark N; Hershey, John C; Callies, Byron; Adalja, Amesh A; Tosh, Pritish K; Toner, Eric S

2017-03-01

A severe influenza pandemic could overwhelm hospitals but planning guidance that accounts for the dynamic interrelationships between planning elements is lacking. We developed a methodology to calculate pandemic supply needs based on operational considerations in hospitals and then tested the methodology at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN. We upgraded a previously designed computer modeling tool and input carefully researched resource data from the hospital to run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using various combinations of variables to determine resource needs across a spectrum of scenarios. Of 10,000 iterations, 1,315 fell within the parameters defined by our simulation design and logical constraints. From these valid iterations, we projected supply requirements by percentile for key supplies, pharmaceuticals, and personal protective equipment requirements needed in a severe pandemic. We projected supplies needs for a range of scenarios that use up to 100% of Mayo Clinic-Rochester's surge capacity of beds and ventilators. The results indicate that there are diminishing patient care benefits for stockpiling on the high side of the range, but that having some stockpile of critical resources, even if it is relatively modest, is most important. We were able to display the probabilities of needing various supply levels across a spectrum of scenarios. The tool could be used to model many other hospital preparedness issues, but validation in other settings is needed. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling and CFD simulation of nutrient distribution in picoliter bioreactors for bacterial growth studies on single-cell level.

PubMed

Westerwalbesloh, Christoph; Grünberger, Alexander; Stute, Birgit; Weber, Sophie; Wiechert, Wolfgang; Kohlheyer, Dietrich; von Lieres, Eric

2015-11-07

A microfluidic device for microbial single-cell cultivation of bacteria was modeled and simulated using COMSOL Multiphysics. The liquid velocity field and the mass transfer within the supply channels and cultivation chambers were calculated to gain insight in the distribution of supplied nutrients and metabolic products secreted by the cultivated bacteria. The goal was to identify potential substrate limitations or product accumulations within the cultivation device. The metabolic uptake and production rates, colony size, and growth medium composition were varied covering a wide range of operating conditions. Simulations with glucose as substrate did not show limitations within the typically used concentration range, but for alternative substrates limitations could not be ruled out. This lays the foundation for further studies and the optimization of existing picoliter bioreactor systems.

Modeling Lignin Polymerization. I. Simulation Model of Dehydrogenation Polymers1[OA

PubMed Central

van Parijs, Frederik R.D.; Morreel, Kris; Ralph, John; Boerjan, Wout; Merks, Roeland M.H.

2010-01-01

Lignin is a heteropolymer that is thought to form in the cell wall by combinatorial radical coupling of monolignols. Here, we present a simulation model of in vitro lignin polymerization, based on the combinatorial coupling theory, which allows us to predict the reaction conditions controlling the primary structure of lignin polymers. Our model predicts two controlling factors for the β-O-4 content of syringyl-guaiacyl lignins: the supply rate of monolignols and the relative amount of supplied sinapyl alcohol monomers. We have analyzed the in silico degradability of the resulting lignin polymers by cutting the resulting lignin polymers at β-O-4 bonds. These are cleaved in analytical methods used to study lignin composition, namely thioacidolysis and derivatization followed by reductive cleavage, under pulping conditions, and in some lignocellulosic biomass pretreatments. PMID:20472753

Supply Chain Development: Insights from Strategic Niche Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caniels, Marjolein C. J.; Romijn, Henny A.

2008-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the study of supply chain design from the perspective of complex dynamic systems. Unlike extant studies that use formal simulation modelling and associated methodologies rooted in the physical sciences, it adopts a framework rooted in the social sciences, strategic niche management, which…

A simulation model to analyze the impact of crisis conditions on the performance of port operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

We consider the supply chain for containerized items that arrive at a port in the U.S. whose final destination is also : in the U.S. Ports are important entities in global supply chains. As such, when a port cannot operate because of : a crisis, such...

A simulation model to analyze the impact of crisis conditions on the performance of port operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

We consider the supply chain for containerized items that arrive at a port in the U.S. whose final destination is also in the U.S. Ports are important entities in global supply chains. As such, when a port cannot operate because of : a crisis, such a...

Modeling the effects of naturally occurring organic carbon on chlorinated ethene transport to a public supply well.

PubMed

Chapelle, Francis H; Kauffman, Leon J; Widdowson, Mark A

2014-09-01

The vulnerability of public supply wells to chlorinated ethene (CE) contamination in part depends on the availability of naturally occurring organic carbon to consume dissolved oxygen (DO) and initiate reductive dechlorination. This was quantified by building a mass balance model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is widely used for public water supply in New Jersey. This model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional (3D) MODFLOW model to the approximate capture zone of a single public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. This local model was then used to compute a mass balance between dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and adsorbed organic carbon (AOC) that act as electron donors and DO, CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors (EAs) using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. SEAM3D was constrained by varying concentrations of DO and DOC entering the aquifer via recharge, varying the bioavailable fraction of POC in aquifer sediments, and comparing observed and simulated vertical concentration profiles of DO and DOC. This procedure suggests that approximately 15% of the POC present in aquifer materials is readily bioavailable. Model simulations indicate that transport of perchloroethene (PCE) and its daughter products trichloroethene (TCE), cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE), and vinyl chloride (VC) to the public supply well is highly sensitive to the assumed bioavailable fraction of POC, concentrations of DO entering the aquifer with recharge, and the position of simulated PCE source areas in the flow field. The results are less sensitive to assumed concentrations of DOC in aquifer recharge. The mass balance approach used in this study also indicates that hydrodynamic processes such as advective mixing, dispersion, and sorption account for a significant amount of the observed natural attenuation in this system. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

Solar pv fed stand-alone excitation system of a synchronous machine for reactive power generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhakar, N.; Jain, Siddhartha; Jyotheeswara Reddy, K.

2017-11-01

This paper presents a model of a stand-alone solar energy conversion system based on synchronous machine working as a synchronous condenser in overexcited state. The proposed model consists of a Synchronous Condenser, a DC/DC boost converter whose output is fed to the field of the SC. The boost converter is supplied by the modelled solar panel and a day time variable irradiance is fed to the panel during the simulation time. The model also has one alternate source of rechargeable batteries for the time when irradiance falls below a threshold value. Also the excess power produced when there is ample irradiance is divided in two parts and one is fed to the boost converter while other is utilized to recharge the batteries. A simulation is done in MATLAB-SIMULINK and the obtained results show the utility of such modelling for supplying reactive power is feasible.

Chemical supply chain modeling for analysis of homeland security events

DOE PAGES

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.; ...

2013-09-06

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

Numerical Simulation of Vitiation Effects on a Hydrogen-Fueled Dual-Mode Scramjet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vyas, Manan A.; Engblom, William A.; Georgiadis, Nicholas J.; Trefny, Charles J.; Bhagwandin, Vishal A.

2010-01-01

The Wind-US computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solver was used to simulate dual-mode direct-connect ramjet/scramjet engine flowpath tests conducted in the University of Virginia (UVa) Supersonic Combustion Facility (SCF). The objective was to develop a computational capability within Wind-US to aid current hypersonic research and provide insight to flow as well as chemistry details that are not resolved by instruments available. Computational results are compared with experimental data to validate the accuracy of the numerical modeling. These results include two fuel-off non-reacting and eight fuel-on reacting cases with different equivalence ratios, split between one set with a clean (non-vitiated) air supply and the other set with a vitiated air supply (12 percent H2O vapor). The Peters and Rogg hydrogen-air chemical kinetics model was selected for the scramjet simulations. A limited sensitivity study was done to investigate the choice of turbulence model and inviscid flux scheme and led to the selection of the k-epsilon model and Harten, Lax and van Leer (for contact waves) (HLLC) scheme for general use. Simulation results show reasonably good agreement with experimental data and the overall vitiation effects were captured.

Development and Application of a Taiwan Domestic Generalized Water Supply Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2016-12-01

Water allocation in Taiwan is more complicated than other countries because high river turbidity caused by rainstorm, reservoir management governed by different organization and conjunctive use of inter-basin reservoirs and dams. Those properties cause water resource planners need make extra effort on developing customized model to simulate the impact of water supply strategies on water resources. Hence, the study develops a Generalized Water Supply Model (GWSM) to analysis Multi-reservoirs water allocation in Taiwan for advancing the planning process. The model has following functions: (1) considering reservoirs operating rule curve. (2) considering the rule of multi-reservoir operation. Such as setting supply priority of different reservoirs or using "index balance" rule. (3) considering optimal hydroelectric power operation. (4) estimating the impact of high river turbidity on water supply. (5) considering the supply priority of different water use. (6) considering irrigation supply under special constraint. Such as the maximum irrigation supply is subject to natural inflow without reservoir storage. (7) considering two-way conduit transport. (8) considering environmental flow reservation. Conjunctive use Taan and Dajia Rivers was selected to demonstrate the ability of GWSM. The results also can be provided to different authorities to realize the impact of different strategies and that is good for negotiation and reaching a consensus.

A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Whan-Seon

2013-06-01

Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

Modelling Parameters Characterizing Selected Water Supply Systems in Lower Silesia Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowogoński, Ireneusz; Ogiołda, Ewa

2017-12-01

The work presents issues of modelling water supply systems in the context of basic parameters characterizing their operation. In addition to typical parameters, such as water pressure and flow rate, assessing the age of the water is important, as a parameter of assessing the quality of the distributed medium. The analysis was based on two facilities, including one with a diverse spectrum of consumers, including residential housing and industry. The carried out simulations indicate the possibility of the occurrence of water quality degradation as a result of excessively long periods of storage in the water supply network. Also important is the influence of the irregularity of water use, especially in the case of supplying various kinds of consumers (in the analysed case - mining companies).

Simulation study on the impact of air distribution on formaldehyde pollutant distribution in room

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jingtao; Wang, Jun; Cheng, Zhu

2017-01-01

In this paper, physical and mathematical model of a room was established based on the Airpak software. The velocity distribution, air age distribution, formaldehyde concentration distribution and Predicted Mean Vote(PMV), Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied(PPD) distribution in the ward of a hospital were simulated. In addition, the air volume was doubled, the change of indoor pollutant concentration distribution was simulated. And further, the change of air age was simulated. Through the simulation, it can help arrange the position of the air supply port, so it is very necessary to increase the comfort of the staff in the room. Finally, through the simulation of pollutant concentration distribution, it can be seen that when concentration of indoor pollutants was high, the supply air flow rate should be increased appropriately. Indoor pollutant will be discharged as soon as possible, which is very beneficial to human body health.

Sustainability of water-supply at military installations, Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Chornack, Michael P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.; Linkov, Igor

2014-01-01

The Kabul Basin, including the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, is host to several military installations of Afghanistan, the United States, and other nations that depend on groundwater resources for water supply. These installations are within or close to the city of Kabul. Groundwater also is the potable supply for the approximately four million residents of Kabul. The sustainability of water resources in the Kabul Basin is a concern to military operations, and Afghan water-resource managers, owing to increased water demands from a growing population and potential mining activities. This study illustrates the use of chemical and isotopic analysis, groundwater flow modeling, and hydrogeologic investigations to assess the sustainability of groundwater resources in the Kabul Basin.Water supplies for military installations in the southern Kabul Basin were found to be subject to sustainability concerns, such as the potential drying of shallow-water supply wells as a result of declining water levels. Model simulations indicate that new withdrawals from deep aquifers may have less of an impact on surrounding community water supply wells than increased withdrawals from near- surface aquifers. Higher rates of recharge in the northern Kabul Basin indicate that military installations in that part of the basin may have fewer issues with long-term water sustainability. Simulations of groundwater withdrawals may be used to evaluate different withdrawal scenarios in an effort to manage water resources in a sustainable manner in the Kabul Basin.

Reconstructing a sediment pulse: Modeling the effect of placer mining on Fraser River, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, R. I.; Church, M.; Rennie, C. D.; Venditti, J. G.

2015-07-01

Gold mining along 525 km of the Fraser River between 1858 and 1909 added an estimated 1.1 × 108 t of tailings, half gravel and the rest finer, to the river's natural sediment load. We simulate the response using a 1-D multigrain size morphodynamic model. Since premining conditions are unknown and modern data are insufficient for tuning the process representation, we devised a novel modeling strategy which may be useful in other data-poor applications. We start the model from a smoothed version of the modern longitudinal profile with bed grain size distributions optimized to match alternative assumptions about natural sediment supply and compare runs that include mining with control runs that can be used to quantify the effects of deficiencies in process representation and initialization. Simulations with an appropriate choice of natural supply rate closely match the best available test data, which consist of a detailed 1952-1999 gravel budget for the distal part of the model domain. The simulations suggest that the main response to mining was rapid bed fining, which allowed a major increase in bed load transport rate with only slight (~0.1 m) mean aggradation within the mining region and most of the excess sediment exported well beyond the mountain front within the mining period or soon afterward. We compare this pattern of response by a large, powerful river with previous case studies of river adjustment to sediment supply change.

Production Planning and Simulation for Reverse Supply Chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murayama, Takeshi; Yoda, Mitsunobu; Eguchi, Toru; Oba, Fuminori

This paper describes a production planning method for a reverse supply chain, in which a disassembly company takes reusable components from returned used products and supplies the reusable components for a product manufacturer. This method addresses the issue that the timings and quantities of returned products and reusable components obtained from them are unknown. This method first predicts the quantities of returned products and reusable components at each time period by using reliability models. Using the prediction result, the method performs production planning based on Material Requirements Planning (MRP). This method enables us to plan at each time period: the quantity of the products to be disassembled; the quantity of the reusable components to be used; and the quantity of the new components to be produced. The flow of the components and products through a forward and reverse supply chain is simulated to show the effectiveness of the method.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Simulation of logistics to supply Corn Stover to the Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Plant in Lambton, Ontario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khaleghi Hamedani, Hamid; Lau, Anthony K.; DeBruyn, Jake

The overall goal of this research is to investigate the logistics of agricultural biomass in Ontario, Canada using the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics Model (IBSAL). The supply of corn stover to the Ontario Power Generation (OPG) power plant in Lambton is simulated. This coal-fired power plant is currently not operating and there are no active plans by OPG to fuel it with biomass. Rather, this scenario is considered only to demonstrate the application of the IBSAL Model to this type of scenario. Here, five scenarios of delivering corn stover to the Lambton Generating Station (GS) power plant inmore » Lambton Ontario are modeled: (1) truck transport from field edge to OPG (base scenario); (2) farm to central storage located on the highway, then truck transport bales to OPG; (3) direct truck transport from farm (no-stacking) to OPG; (4) farm to a loading port on Lake Huron and from there on a barge to OPG; and (5) farm to a railhead and then to OPG by rail.« less

Simulation of logistics to supply Corn Stover to the Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Plant in Lambton, Ontario

DOE PAGES

Khaleghi Hamedani, Hamid; Lau, Anthony K.; DeBruyn, Jake; ...

2016-05-10

The overall goal of this research is to investigate the logistics of agricultural biomass in Ontario, Canada using the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics Model (IBSAL). The supply of corn stover to the Ontario Power Generation (OPG) power plant in Lambton is simulated. This coal-fired power plant is currently not operating and there are no active plans by OPG to fuel it with biomass. Rather, this scenario is considered only to demonstrate the application of the IBSAL Model to this type of scenario. Here, five scenarios of delivering corn stover to the Lambton Generating Station (GS) power plant inmore » Lambton Ontario are modeled: (1) truck transport from field edge to OPG (base scenario); (2) farm to central storage located on the highway, then truck transport bales to OPG; (3) direct truck transport from farm (no-stacking) to OPG; (4) farm to a loading port on Lake Huron and from there on a barge to OPG; and (5) farm to a railhead and then to OPG by rail.« less

The effective integration of analysis, modeling, and simulation tools.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

The need for model integration arises from the recognition that both transportation decisionmaking and the tools supporting it continue to increase in complexity. Many strategies that agencies evaluate require using tools that are sensitive to supply...

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Vevay Township area, Ingham County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Simard, Andreanne

2004-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of water for domestic, public-supply, and industrial use within the Tri-County region that includes Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties in Michigan. Because of the importance of this ground-water resource, numerous communities, including the city of Mason in Ingham County, have begun local Wellhead Protection Programs. In these programs, communities protect their groundwater resource by identifying the areas that contribute water to production wells and potential sources of contamination, and by developing methods to manage and minimize threats to the water supply. In addition, some communities in Michigan are concerned about water availability, particularly in areas experiencing water-level declines in the vicinity of quarry dewatering operations. In areas where Wellhead Protection Programs are implemented and there are potential threats to the water supply, residents and communities need adequate information to protect the water supply.In 1996, a regional ground-water-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to simulate ground-water flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties. This model was developed primarily to simulate the bedrock ground-waterflow system; ground-water flow in the unconsolidated glacial sediments was simulated to support analysis of flow in the underlying bedrock Saginaw aquifer. Since its development in 1996, regional model simulations have been conducted to address protection concerns and water availability questions of local water-resources managers. As a result of these continuing model simulations, additional hydrogeologic data have been acquired in the Tri-County region that has improved the characterization of the simulated ground-water-flow system and improved the model calibration. A major benefit of these updates and refinements is that the regional Tri-County model continues to be a useful tool that improves the understanding of the ground-water-flow system in the Tri-County region, provides local water-resources managers with a means to answer ground-water protection and availability questions, and serves as an example that can be applied in other areas of the state.A refined version of the 1996 Tri-County regional ground-water-flow model, developed in 1997, was modified with local hydrogeologic information in the Vevay Township area in Michigan. This model, updated in 2003 for this study, was used to simulate ground-water flow to address groundwater protection and availability questions in Vevay Township. The 2003 model included refinement of glacial and bedrock hydraulic characteristics, better representation of the degree of connection between the glacial deposits and the underlying Saginaw aquifer, and refinement of the model cell size.The 2003 model was used to simulate regional groundwater flow, to delineate areas contributing recharge and zones of contribution to production wells in the city of Mason, and to simulate the effects of present and possible future withdrawals. The areal extent of the 10- and 40-year areas contributing recharge and the zones of contribution for the city of Mason's production wells encompass about 2.3 and 6.2 square miles, respectively. Simulation results, where withdrawals for quarry operations were represented by one well pumping at 1.6 million gallons per day, indicate that water levels would decline slightly over 1 foot approximately 2 miles from the quarry in the glacial deposits and in the Saginaw aquifer. With a reduction of the local riverbed conductance or removal of local river model cells representing Mud Creek, water-level declines would extend further west of Mud Creek and further to the north, east, and south of the simulated quarry. Simulation results indicate that water withdrawn for quarry dewatering operations would decrease ground-water recharge to nearby Mud Creek, would increase ground-water discharge from Mud Creek, and that local water levels would be lowered as a result.

Simulation and Performance Analysis of Lithium Battery Bank Mounted on the Hybrid Power System for Mobile Public Health Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busono, Pratondo; Kartini, Evvy

2013-07-01

Mobile medical clinic has been proposed to serve homeless people, people in the disaster area or in the remote area where no health service exist. At that site, a number of essential services such as primary health care, general health screening, medical treatment and emergency/rescue operations are required. Such services usually requires on board electrical equipments such as refrigerators, komputer, power tools and medical equipments. To supply such electrical equipments, it needs extra auxiliary power sources, in addition of standard automotive power supply. The auxiliary power source specifically design to supply non automotive load which may have similar configuration, but usually uses high power alternator rated and larger deep cycle on board battery bank. This study covers the modeling and dynamic simulation of auxiliary power source/battery to supply the medical equipment and other electrical equipments on board. It consists a variable speed diesel generator set, photovoltaic (PV) generator mounted on the roof of the car, a rechargable battery bank. As an initial step in the system design, a simulation study was performed. The simulation is conducted in the system level. Simulation results shows that dynamical behaviour by means of current density, voltage and power plot over a chosen time range, and functional behaviour such as charging and discharging characteristic of the battery bank can be obtained.

Rigorous mathematical modelling for a Fast Corrector Power Supply in TPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, K.-B.; Liu, C.-Y.; Chien, Y.-C.; Wang, B.-S.; Wong, Y. S.

2017-04-01

To enhance the stability of beam orbit, a Fast Orbit Feedback System (FOFB) eliminating undesired disturbances was installed and tested in the 3rd generation synchrotron light source of Taiwan Photon Source (TPS) of National Synchrotron Radiation Research Center (NSRRC). The effectiveness of the FOFB greatly depends on the output performance of Fast Corrector Power Supply (FCPS); therefore, the design and implementation of an accurate FCPS is essential. A rigorous mathematical modelling is very useful to shorten design time and improve design performance of a FCPS. A rigorous mathematical modelling derived by the state-space averaging method for a FCPS in the FOFB of TPS composed of a full-bridge topology is therefore proposed in this paper. The MATLAB/SIMULINK software is used to construct the proposed mathematical modelling and to conduct the simulations of the FCPS. Simulations for the effects of the different resolutions of ADC on the output accuracy of the FCPS are investigated. A FCPS prototype is realized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed rigorous mathematical modelling for the FCPS. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed mathematical modelling is helpful for selecting the appropriate components to meet the accuracy requirements of a FCPS.

Coupling long and short term decisions in the design of urban water supply infrastructure for added reliability and flexibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, G.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Medellin-Azuara, J.

2016-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty and water scarcity requires a strategic combination of supply sources for reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources involves integration of long and short term planning to determine what and when to expand, and how much to use of each supply source accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. This research presents an integrated methodology coupling dynamic programming optimization with quadratic programming to optimize the expansion (long term) and operations (short term) of multiple water supply alternatives. Lagrange Multipliers produced by the short-term model provide a signal about the marginal opportunity cost of expansion to the long-term model, in an iterative procedure. A simulation model hosts the water supply infrastructure and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions; (b) evaluation of water transfers between urban supply systems; and (c) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion.

High-Performance Integrated Control of water quality and quantity in urban water reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.; Goedbloed, A.

2015-11-01

This paper contributes a novel High-Performance Integrated Control framework to support the real-time operation of urban water supply storages affected by water quality problems. We use a 3-D, high-fidelity simulation model to predict the main water quality dynamics and inform a real-time controller based on Model Predictive Control. The integration of the simulation model into the control scheme is performed by a model reduction process that identifies a low-order, dynamic emulator running 4 orders of magnitude faster. The model reduction, which relies on a semiautomatic procedural approach integrating time series clustering and variable selection algorithms, generates a compact and physically meaningful emulator that can be coupled with the controller. The framework is used to design the hourly operation of Marina Reservoir, a 3.2 Mm3 storm-water-fed reservoir located in the center of Singapore, operated for drinking water supply and flood control. Because of its recent formation from a former estuary, the reservoir suffers from high salinity levels, whose behavior is modeled with Delft3D-FLOW. Results show that our control framework reduces the minimum salinity levels by nearly 40% and cuts the average annual deficit of drinking water supply by about 2 times the active storage of the reservoir (about 4% of the total annual demand).

Simulation-optimization aids in resolving water conflict: Temecula Basin, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Lear, Jonathan

2014-01-01

The productive agricultural areas of Pajaro Valley, California have exclusively relied on ground water from coastal aquifers in central Monterey Bay. As part of the Basin Management Plan (BMP), the Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency (PVWMA) is developing additional local supplies to replace coastal pumpage, which is causing seawater intrusion. The BMP includes an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) system, which captures and stores local winter runoff, and supplies it to growers later in the growing season in lieu of ground-water pumpage. A Coastal Distribution System (CDS) distributes water from the ASR and other supplemental sources. A detailed model of the Pajaro Valley is being used to simulate the coupled supply and demand components of irrigated agriculture from 1963 to 2006. Recent upgrades to the Farm Process in MODFLOW (MF2K-FMP) allow simulating the effects of ASR deliveries and reduced pumping for farms in subregions connected to the CDS. The BMP includes a hierarchy of monthly supply alternatives, including a recovery well field around the ASR system, a supplemental wellfield, and onsite farm supply wells. The hierarchy of delivery requirements is used by MF2K-FMP to estimate the effects of these deliveries on coastal ground-water pumpage and recovery of water levels. This integrated approach can be used to assess the effectiveness of the BMP under variable climatic conditions, and to test the impacts of more complete subscription by coastal farmers to the CDS deliveries. The model will help managers assess the effects of new BMP components to further reduce pumpage and seawater intrusion.

The Effect of Oxygen Supply on the Dual Growth Kinetics of Acidithiobacillus thiooxidans under Acidic Conditions for Biogas Desulfurization

PubMed Central

Namgung, Hyeong-Kyu; Song, JiHyeon

2015-01-01

In this study, to simulate a biogas desulfurization process, a modified Monod-Gompertz kinetic model incorporating a dissolved oxygen (DO) effect was proposed for a sulfur-oxidizing bacterial (SOB) strain, Acidithiobacillus thiooxidans, under extremely acidic conditions of pH 2. The kinetic model was calibrated and validated using experimental data obtained from a bubble-column bioreactor. The SOB strain was effective for H2S degradation, but the H2S removal efficiency dropped rapidly at DO concentrations less than 2.0 mg/L. A low H2S loading was effectively treated with oxygen supplied in a range of 2%–6%, but a H2S guideline of 10 ppm could not be met, even with an oxygen supply greater than 6%, when the H2S loading was high at a short gas retention time of 1 min and a H2S inlet concentration of 5000 ppm. The oxygen supply should be increased in the aerobic desulfurization to meet the H2S guideline; however, the excess oxygen above the optimum was not effective because of the decline in oxygen efficiency. The model estimation indicated that the maximum H2S removal rate was approximately 400 ppm/%-O2 at the influent oxygen concentration of 4.9% under the given condition. The kinetic model with a low DO threshold for the interacting substrates was a useful tool to simulate the effect of the oxygen supply on the H2S removal and to determine the optimal oxygen concentration. PMID:25633028

Computer Simulations of the Tumor Vasculature: Applications to Interstitial Fluid Flow, Drug Delivery, and Oxygen Supply.

PubMed

Welter, Michael; Rieger, Heiko

2016-01-01

Tumor vasculature, the blood vessel network supplying a growing tumor with nutrients such as oxygen or glucose, is in many respects different from the hierarchically organized arterio-venous blood vessel network in normal tissues. Angiogenesis (the formation of new blood vessels), vessel cooption (the integration of existing blood vessels into the tumor vasculature), and vessel regression remodel the healthy vascular network into a tumor-specific vasculature. Integrative models, based on detailed experimental data and physical laws, implement, in silico, the complex interplay of molecular pathways, cell proliferation, migration, and death, tissue microenvironment, mechanical and hydrodynamic forces, and the fine structure of the host tissue vasculature. With the help of computer simulations high-precision information about blood flow patterns, interstitial fluid flow, drug distribution, oxygen and nutrient distribution can be obtained and a plethora of therapeutic protocols can be tested before clinical trials. This chapter provides an overview over the current status of computer simulations of vascular remodeling during tumor growth including interstitial fluid flow, drug delivery, and oxygen supply within the tumor. The model predictions are compared with experimental and clinical data and a number of longstanding physiological paradigms about tumor vasculature and intratumoral solute transport are critically scrutinized.

Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Liang; Jing, Ke; He, Jie; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

An assembly supply chain network (ASCN) is composed of manufacturers located in different geographical regions. To analyze the robustness of this ASCN when it suffers from catastrophe disruption events, we construct a cascading failure model of risk propagation. In our model, different disruption scenarios s are considered and the probability equation of all disruption scenarios is developed. Using production capability loss as the robustness index (RI) of an ASCN, we conduct a numerical simulation to assess its robustness. Through simulation, we compare the network robustness at different values of linking intensity and node threshold and find that weak linking intensity or high node threshold increases the robustness of the ASCN. We also compare network robustness levels under different disruption scenarios.

Analysis and simulation of a magnetic bearing suspension system for a laboratory model annular momentum control device

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groom, N. J.; Woolley, C. T.; Joshi, S. M.

1981-01-01

A linear analysis and the results of a nonlinear simulation of a magnetic bearing suspension system which uses permanent magnet flux biasing are presented. The magnetic bearing suspension is part of a 4068 N-m-s (3000 lb-ft-sec) laboratory model annular momentum control device (AMCD). The simulation includes rigid body rim dynamics, linear and nonlinear axial actuators, linear radial actuators, axial and radial rim warp, and power supply and power driver current limits.

Optimizing withdrawal from drinking water reservoirs to reduce downstream temperature pollution and reservoir hypoxia.

PubMed

Weber, M; Rinke, K; Hipsey, M R; Boehrer, B

2017-07-15

Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires balancing the demands of water supply whilst minimizing environmental impact. This study numerically simulates the effect of an improved withdrawal scheme designed to alleviate the temperature pollution downstream of a reservoir. The aim was to identify an optimal withdrawal strategy such that water of a desirable discharge temperature can be supplied downstream without leading to unacceptably low oxygen concentrations within the reservoir. First, we calibrated a one-dimensional numerical model for hydrodynamics and oxygen dynamics (GLM-AED2), verifying that the model reproduced water temperatures and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations accurately over a 5 year period. Second, the model was extended to include an adaptive withdrawal functionality, allowing for a prescribed withdrawal temperature to be found, with the potential constraint of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. Scenario simulations on epi-/metalimnetic withdrawal demonstrate that the model is able to autonomously determine the best withdrawal height depending on the thermal structure and the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration thereby optimizing the ability to supply a desirable discharge temperature to the downstream river during summer. This new withdrawal strategy also increased the hypolimnetic raw water volume to be used for drinking water supply, but reduced the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the deep and cold water layers (hypolimnion). Implications of the results for reservoir management are discussed and the numerical model is provided for operators as a simple and efficient tool for optimizing the withdrawal strategy within different reservoir contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The never ending road: improving, adapting and refining a needs-based model to estimate future general practitioner requirements in two Australian states.

PubMed

Laurence, Caroline O; Heywood, Troy; Bell, Janice; Atkinson, Kaye; Karnon, Jonathan

2018-03-27

Health workforce planning models have been developed to estimate the future health workforce requirements for a population whom they serve and have been used to inform policy decisions. To adapt and further develop a need-based GP workforce simulation model to incorporate current and estimated geographic distribution of patients and GPs. A need-based simulation model that estimates the supply of GPs and levels of services required in South Australia (SA) was adapted and applied to the Western Australian (WA) workforce. The main outcome measure was the differences in the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs supplied and required from 2013 to 2033. The base scenario estimated a shortage of GPs in WA from 2019 onwards with a shortage of 493 FTE GPs in 2033, while for SA, estimates showed an oversupply over the projection period. The WA urban and rural models estimated an urban shortage of GPs over this period. A reduced international medical graduate recruitment scenario resulted in estimated shortfalls of GPs by 2033 for WA and SA. The WA-specific scenarios of lower population projections and registrar work value resulted in a reduced shortage of FTE GPs in 2033, while unfilled training places increased the shortfall of FTE GPs in 2033. The simulation model incorporates contextual differences to its structure that allows within and cross jurisdictional comparisons of workforce estimations. It also provides greater insights into the drivers of supply and demand and the impact of changes in workforce policy, promoting more informed decision-making.

Derivation of optimal joint operating rules for multi-purpose multi-reservoir water-supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Qiao-feng; Wang, Xu; Wang, Hao; Wang, Chao; Lei, Xiao-hui; Xiong, Yi-song; Zhang, Wei

2017-08-01

The derivation of joint operating policy is a challenging task for a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system. This study proposed an aggregation-decomposition model to guide the joint operation of multi-purpose multi-reservoir system, including: (1) an aggregated model based on the improved hedging rule to ensure the long-term water-supply operating benefit; (2) a decomposed model to allocate the limited release to individual reservoirs for the purpose of maximizing the total profit of the facing period; and (3) a double-layer simulation-based optimization model to obtain the optimal time-varying hedging rules using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II, whose objectives were to minimize maximum water deficit and maximize water supply reliability. The water-supply system of Li River in Guangxi Province, China, was selected for the case study. The results show that the operating policy proposed in this study is better than conventional operating rules and aggregated standard operating policy for both water supply and hydropower generation due to the use of hedging mechanism and effective coordination among multiple objectives.

Climate Change Impacts on River Temperature in the Southeastern United States: A Case Study of the Tennessee River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Mao, Y.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, climate change and population growth are expected to affect water and energy supply as well as demand in the southeastern United States. Changes in temperature and precipitation impact river flow and stream temperature with implications for hydropower generation, industrial and municipal water supply, cooling for thermo-electric power plants, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem functions and flood control. At the same time, water and energy demand are expected to change in response to temperature increase, population growth and changing crop water requirements. As part of a multi-institution study of the food-energy-water nexus in the southeastern U.S., we are developing coupled hydrological and stream temperature models that will be linked to water resources, power systems and crop models at a later stage. Here we evaluate the ability of our system to simulate water supply and stream temperature in the Tennessee River Basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model coupled to the River Basin Model (RBM), a 1-D semi-Lagrangian river temperature model, which has recently been expanded with a two-layer reservoir temperature model. Simulations with VIC-RBM were performed for the Tennessee River Basin at 1/8-degree spatial resolution and a temporal resolution of 1 day or less. Reservoir releases were prescribed based on historic operating rules. In future iterations, these releases will be modeled directly by a water resources model that incorporates flood control, and power and agricultural water demands. We compare simulated flows, as well as stream and reservoir temperatures with observed flows and temperatures throughout the basin. In preparation for later stages of the project, we also perform a set of climate change sensitivity experiments to evaluate how changes in climate may impact river and reservoir temperature.

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model: SECTORAL WATER MANAGEMENT IN IA-ESM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby

To advance understanding of the interactions between human activities and the water cycle, an integrated terrestrial water cycle component has been developed for Earth system models. This includes a land surface model fully coupled to a river routing model and a generic water management model to simulate natural and regulated flows. A global integrated assessment model and its regionalized version for the U.S. are used to simulate water demand consistent with the energy technology and socio-economics scenarios. Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage from reservoirs, consumptive use and withdrawal from multiple sectors ( irrigation and non-irrigation)more » and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. As groundwater provides an important source of water supply for irrigation and other uses, the integrated modeling framework has been extended with a simplified representation of groundwater as an additional supply source, and return flow generated from differences between withdrawals and consumptive uses from both groundwater and surface water systems. The groundwater supply and return flow modules are evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow, reservoir storage and supply deficit for irrigation and non-irrigation sectors over major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S. The modeling framework is then used to provide insights on the reliability of water resources by isolating the reliability due to return flow and/or groundwater sources of water. Our results show that high sectoral ratio of withdrawals over consumptive demand adds significant stress on the water resources management that can be alleviated by reservoir storage capacity. The return flow representation therefore exhibits a clear east-west contrast in its hydrologic signature, as well as in its ability to help meet water demand. Groundwater use has a limited hydrologic signature but the most pronounced signature is in terms of decreasing water supply deficit. The combined return flow and groundwater use signature conserves the east-west constrast with overall uncertainties due to the groundwater-return flow representation, varying ratios combined with different hydroclimate conditions, storage infrastructures, sectoral water uses and dependence on groundwater. The redistribution of surface and groundwater by human activities, and the uncertainties in their representation have important implications to the water and energy balances in the Earth system and land-atmosphere interactions.« less

Supply chain analysis of e-tailing versus retailing operation - a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sameer; Tiffany, Maryellen; Vaidya, Salil

2016-07-01

The swift growth of e-commerce or e-tailing as a consumer retail channel has made it a serious competitor to traditional retail channels and is changing consumers' purchasing behaviour. The purpose of this case study, based on Target and Amazon.com, is to analyse the attributes of traditional retailing, e-tailing, and hybrid supply chain models to form conclusions about the feasibility of an idealised supply chain model for the future. An integrated and generalised modelling framework is used that incorporates Six Sigma - define, measure, analyse, improve, control methodology leveraging various tools, including process flow maps, cause and effect diagram, performance efficiency metrics, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), and Monte Carlo simulation. Based on this analysis and research, the conclusion is that the idealised supply chain of the future may evolve into a hybrid supply chain, which includes both e-tail and retail channels. The main recommendations from this study include assessing the risks of migrating to such a hybrid supply chain and to leverage the recommended actions provided in the hybrid FMEA. To facilitate more effective and mature processes, this study can guide researchers in exhaustive empirical evaluations of hybrid supply chains, gather experiences and lessons learned for practitioners.

Simulation for assessment of bulk cargo berths number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsov, A. L.; Kirichenko, A. V.; Slitsan, A. E.

2017-10-01

The world trade volumes of mineral resources have been growing constantly for decades, notwithstanding any economical crises. At the same time, the proximity of the bulk materials as products to the starting point of the integrated value added or logistic supply chain makes their unit price relatively low. This fact automatically causes a strong economic sensitivity of the supply chain to the level of operational expenses in every link. The core of the integrated logistic supply chain is its maritime segment, with the fleet and terminals (i.e. the cargo transportation system) serving as the base platform for it. In its turn, the terminal berths play a role of the interface between the fleet and the land-transportation sub-system. Current development of the maritime transportation technologies, ships and terminal specialization, vessel size growth, rationalization of route patterns, regionalization of trade etc., has made conventional calculation methods inadequate. The solution of the problem is in using object oriented simulation. At the same time, this approch usually assumes only ad hoc models. Thus, it does not provide the generality of its conventional analytical predecessors. The time and labor consumpting procedure of simulation results in a very narrow application domain of the model. This article describes a new simulation instrument, combining the generality of the analytical technoques with the efficiency of the object-oriented simulation. The approach implemented as a software module, which validity and adequacy are proved. The software was tested on several sea terminal design projects and confirmed its efficiency.

Independent Verification and Validation of the Global Deployment Analysis System (GDAS). Phase 2 Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-28

and examined various models as possible alternatives to TRANSMO. None of the candidate models met all CAA’s requirements, so a major TERP recommendation...will simulate the mobilization of U.S. forces, deployment of forces and supplies across an intertheater network, and deployment of forces and... supplies to the combat zone. 1.2 Phase !1 IV&V Summary Potomac Systems Engineering, Inc. (PSE), is providing IV&V support to CAA during the GDAS development

Simulation of constituent transport in the Red River of the North basin, North Dakota and Minnesota, during unsteady-flow conditions, 1977 and 2003-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Bales, Jerad D.

2006-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation identified eight water-supply alternatives for the Red River Valley Water Supply Project. Of those alternatives, six were considered for this study. Those six alternatives include a no-action alternative, two in-basin alternatives, and three interbasin alternatives. To address concerns of stakeholders and to provide information for an environmental impact statement, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, developed and applied a water-quality model to simulate the transport of total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, sodium, and total phosphorus during unsteady-flow conditions and to simulate the effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and the Sheyenne River. The physical domain of the model, hereinafter referred to as the Red River model, includes the Red River from Wahpeton, North Dakota, to Emerson, Manitoba, and the Sheyenne River from below Baldhill Dam, North Dakota, to the confluence with the Red River. Boundary conditions were specified for May 15 through October 31, 2003, and January 15 through June 30, 2004. Measured streamflow data were available for August 1 through October 31, 2003, and April 1 through June 30, 2004, but water-quality data were available only for September 15 through 16, 2003, and May 10 through 13, 2004. The water-quality boundary conditions were assumed to be time invariant for the entire calibration period and to be equal to the measured value. The average difference between the measured and simulated streamflows was less than 4 percent for both calibration periods, and most differences were less than 2 percent. The average differences are considered to be acceptable because the differences are less than 5 percent, or the same as the error that would be expected in a typical streamflow measurement. Simulated total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, and sodium concentrations generally were less than measured concentrations for both calibration periods. The average absolute differences generally were less than 25 percent. Total phosphorus was simulated as a nonconservative constituent by assuming that concentrations change according to a first-order decay rate. The average difference between the measured and simulated total phosphorus concentrations was 6.2 percent for the 2003 calibration period and -24 percent for the 2004 calibration period. The Red River model demonstrates sensitivity to changes in boundary conditions so a reasonable assumption is that the model can be used to compare relative effects of the various water-supply alternatives. The calibrated Red River model was used to simulate the effects of the six water-supply alternatives by using measured streamflows for September 1, 1976, through August 31, 1977, when streamflows throughout the Red River Basin were relatively low. Streamflows for the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota, were less than 17.9 cubic feet per second on 159 days of that 12-month period, and monthly average streamflows for the Red River at Grand Forks, North Dakota, and the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, were less than 30 percent of the respective long-term average monthly streamflows for 11 of the 12 months during September 1976 through August 1977. Water-quality boundary conditions were generated using a stochastic approach in which probability distributions derived from all available historical data on instream concentrations were used to produce daily concentrations at model boundaries. Return flow concentrations were estimated from source concentrations and current (2006) wastewater-treatment technology. Because no historical information on ungaged local inflow constituent concentrations is available to estimate those boundary conditions, time-invariant concentrations for the low-flow 2003 calibration period were used as the ungaged local inflow boundary conditions. The effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and

Simulation of the effects of ground-water withdrawals and recharge on ground-water flow in Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket Island basins, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Barlow, Paul M.

1994-01-01

The effects of changing patterns of ground-water pumping and aquifer recharge on the surface-water and ground-water hydrologic systems were determined for the Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket Island Basins. Three-dimensional, transient, ground-water-flow modelS that simulate both freshwater and saltwater flow were developed for the f1ow cells of Cape Cod which currently have large-capacity public-supply wells. Only the freshwater-flow system was simulated for the Cape Cod flow cells where public-water supply demands are satisfied by small-capacity domestic wells. Two- dimensional, finite-difference, change models were developed for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island to determine the projected drawdowns in response to projected in-season pumping rates for 180 days of no aquifer recharge. Results of the simulations indicate very little change in the position of the freshwater-saltwater interface from predevelopment flow conditions to projected ground-water pumping and recharge rates for Cape Cod in the year 2020. Results of change model simulations for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island indicate that the greatest impact in response to projected in-season ground-water pumping occurs at the pumping centers and the magnitude of the drawdowns are minimal with respect to the total thickness of the aquifers.

Spatial analysis of private tanker water markets in Jordan: Using a hydroeconomic multi-agent model to simulate non-observed water transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim; Gawel, Erik; Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Talozi, Samer; Lachaut, Thibaut; Selby, Philip; Knox, Stephen; Gorelick, Steven; Tilmant, Amaury; Harou, Julien; Mustafa, Daanish; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Rajsekhar, Deepthi; Avisse, Nicolas; Zhang, Hua

2017-04-01

The country of Jordan is characterized by severe water scarcity and deficient public water supply networks. To address these issues, Jordan's water sector authorities have adopted a water rationing scheme implemented by interrupting piped water supply for several days per week. As in many arid countries around the world, this has led to the emergence of private markets of small-scale providers, delivering water via tanker trucks. On the one hand, these markets play a crucial role in meeting residential and commercial water demands by balancing the shortcomings of the public supply system. On the other hand, providers partially rely on illegal abstractions from rural ground and surface water sources, thereby circumventing regulatory efforts to conserve these resources. Private tanker water markets, therefore, provide a substantial contribution to consumer welfare while jeopardizing freshwater resource sustainability. Thus, a better understanding of these markets is of great importance for the formulation of policy interventions pursuing freshwater sustainability in a socially acceptable manner. Direct assessments of the size of these markets or their responses to policy interventions are, however, impeded by their partially illegal nature and the resulting lack of available information. To overcome this data collection challenge, we use a hydroeconomic multi-agent model developed in the Jordan Water Project to indirectly simulate country-wide tanker water market activities on the basis of demand and supply estimates. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. Finally, a spatial market algorithm matches rural supplies with users' demands across the 89 subdistricts of Jordan. This algorithm is parameterized with survey data we collected on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is successfully validated with available data on tanker truck registrations and tanker water prices. Model results reveal the spatial distribution of the private tanker markets' freshwater extractions, sales quantities, and economic impacts on different water user groups across all of Jordan. The results confirm the quantitative importance of these markets for consumer welfare. A dynamic coupling of farm agents with a country-wide groundwater model allows us to capture feedbacks between tanker water markets and groundwater levels. This enables us to assess policy impacts over time. Model analyses show that policies aiming to mitigate the negative sustainability impacts of private tanker water markets need to simultaneously address the shortcomings of the piped water supply system in order to avoid undue burdens on water users.

Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model

PubMed Central

Doi, Shunsuke; Ide, Hiroo; Takeuchi, Koichi; Fujita, Shinsuke; Takabayashi, Katsuhiko

2017-01-01

Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy. PMID:29125585

Characterization and simulation of fate and transport of selected volatile organic compounds in the vicinities of the Hadnot Point Industrial Area and landfill: Chapter A Supplement 6 in Analyses and historical reconstruction of groundwater flow, contaminant fate and transport, and distribution of drinking water within the service areas of the Hadnot Point and Holcomb Boulevard Water Treatment Plants and vicinities, U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, L. Elliott; Suárez-Soto, René J.; Anderson, Barbara A.; Maslia, Morris L.

2013-01-01

This supplement of Chapter A (Supplement 6) describes the reconstruction (i.e. simulation) of historical concentrations of tetrachloroethylene (PCE), trichloroethylene (TCE), and benzene3 in production wells supplying water to the Hadnot Base (USMCB) Camp Lejeune, North Carolina (Figure S6.1). A fate and transport model (i.e., MT3DMS [Zheng and Wang 1999]) was used to simulate contaminant migration from source locations through the groundwater system and to estimate mean contaminant concentrations in water withdrawn from water-supply wells in the vicinity of the Hadnot Point Industrial Area (HPIA) and the Hadnot Point landfill (HPLF) area.4 The reconstructed contaminant concentrations were subsequently input into a flow-weighted, materials mass balance (mixing) model (Masters 1998) to estimate monthly mean concentrations of the contaminant in finished water 5 at the HPWTP (Maslia et al. 2013). The calibrated fate and transport models described herein were based on and used groundwater velocities derived from groundwater-flow models that are described in Suárez-Soto et al. (2013). Information data pertinent to historical operations of water-supply wells are described in Sautner et al. (2013) and Telci et al. (2013).

Using an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Model to Develop Minimum Cost Water Supply Portfolios and Manage Supply Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.; Ramsey, J.

2004-12-01

Water scarcity has become a reality in many areas as a result of population growth, fewer available sources, and reduced tolerance for the environmental impacts of developing the new supplies that do exist. As a result, successfully managing future water supply risk will become more dependent on coordinating the use of existing resources. Toward that end, flexible supply strategies that can rapidly respond to hydrologic variability will provide communities with increasing economic advantages, particularly if the frequency of more extreme events (e.g., drought) increases due to global climate change. Markets for established commodities (e.g., oil, gas) often provide a framework for efficiently responding to changes in supply and demand. Water markets, however, have remained relatively crude, with most transactions involving permanent transfers and long regulatory processes. Recently, interest in the use of flexible short-term transfers (e.g., leases, options) has begun to motivate consideration of more sophisticated strategies for managing supply risk, strategies similar to those used in more mature markets. In this case, communities can benefit from some of the advantages that water enjoys over other commodities, in particular, the ability to accurately characterize the stochastic nature of supply and demand through hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic-economic models are developed for two different water scarce regions supporting active water markets: Edward Aquifer and Lower Rio Grande Valley. These models are used to construct portfolios of water supply transfers (e.g., permanent transfers, options, and spot leases) that minimize the cost of meeting a probabilistic reliability constraint. Real and simulated spot price distributions allow each type of transfer to be priced in a manner consistent with financial theory (e.g., Black-Scholes). Market simulations are integrated with hydrologic models such that variability in supply and demand are linked with price behavior. Decisions on when and how much water to lease (or exercise, in the case of options) are made on the basis of anticipatory rules based on the ratio of expected supply to expected demand, and are used to evaluate the economic consequences of a utilityAƒAøAøâ_sA¬Aøâ_zAøs attitude toward risk. The marginal cost of supply reliability is also explored by varying the water supply reliability constraint, an important consideration as the rising expense of new source development may encourage some communities to accept a nominal number of supply shortfalls. Results demonstrate how changes in the distribution of various transfer types within a portfolio can affect its cost and reliability. Results also suggest that substantial savings can be obtained through the use of market-based risk management strategies, with optimal portfolio costs averaging as much as 35 percent less than the costs of meeting reliability targets through the maintenance of firm capacity. Both the conceptual and modeling approach described in this work are likely to have increasing application as water scarcity continues to drive the search for more efficient approaches to water resource management.

A New Reliability Analysis Model of the Chegongzhuang Heat-Supplying Tunnel Structure Considering the Coupling of Pipeline Thrust and Thermal Effect

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiawen; He, Shaohui; Wang, Dahai; Liu, Yangpeng; Yao, Wenbo; Liu, Xiabing

2018-01-01

Based on the operating Chegongzhuang heat-supplying tunnel in Beijing, the reliability of its lining structure under the action of large thrust and thermal effect is studied. According to the characteristics of a heat-supplying tunnel service, a three-dimensional numerical analysis model was established based on the mechanical tests on the in-situ specimens. The stress and strain of the tunnel structure were obtained before and after the operation. Compared with the field monitoring data, the rationality of the model was verified. After extracting the internal force of the lining structure, the improved method of subset simulation was proposed as the performance function to calculate the reliability of the main control section of the tunnel. In contrast to the traditional calculation method, the analytic relationship between the sample numbers in the subset simulation method and Monte Carlo method was given. The results indicate that the lining structure is greatly influenced by coupling in the range of six meters from the fixed brackets, especially the tunnel floor. The improved subset simulation method can greatly save computation time and improve computational efficiency under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of calculation. It is suitable for the reliability calculation of tunnel engineering, because “the lower the probability, the more efficient the calculation.” PMID:29401691

Energy saving potential of a two-pipe system for simultaneous heating and cooling of office buildings

DOE PAGES

Maccarini, Alessandro; Wetter, Michael; Afshari, Alireza; ...

2016-10-31

This paper analyzes the performance of a novel two-pipe system that operates one water loop to simultaneously provide space heating and cooling with a water supply temperature of around 22 °C. To analyze the energy performance of the system, a simulation-based research was conducted. The two-pipe system was modelled using the equation-based Modelica modeling language in Dymola. A typical office building model was considered as the case study. Simulations were run for two construction sets of the building envelope and two conditions related to inter-zone air flows. To calculate energy savings, a conventional four-pipe system was modelled and used formore » comparison. The conventional system presented two separated water loops for heating and cooling with supply temperatures of 45 °C and 14 °C, respectively. Simulation results showed that the two-pipe system was able to use less energy than the four-pipe system thanks to three effects: useful heat transfer from warm to cold zones, higher free cooling potential and higher efficiency of the heat pump. In particular, the two-pipe system used approximately between 12% and 18% less total annual primary energy than the four-pipe system, depending on the simulation case considered.« less

Energy saving potential of a two-pipe system for simultaneous heating and cooling of office buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maccarini, Alessandro; Wetter, Michael; Afshari, Alireza

This paper analyzes the performance of a novel two-pipe system that operates one water loop to simultaneously provide space heating and cooling with a water supply temperature of around 22 °C. To analyze the energy performance of the system, a simulation-based research was conducted. The two-pipe system was modelled using the equation-based Modelica modeling language in Dymola. A typical office building model was considered as the case study. Simulations were run for two construction sets of the building envelope and two conditions related to inter-zone air flows. To calculate energy savings, a conventional four-pipe system was modelled and used formore » comparison. The conventional system presented two separated water loops for heating and cooling with supply temperatures of 45 °C and 14 °C, respectively. Simulation results showed that the two-pipe system was able to use less energy than the four-pipe system thanks to three effects: useful heat transfer from warm to cold zones, higher free cooling potential and higher efficiency of the heat pump. In particular, the two-pipe system used approximately between 12% and 18% less total annual primary energy than the four-pipe system, depending on the simulation case considered.« less

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Computer-program documentation of an interactive-accounting model to simulate streamflow, water quality, and water-supply operations in a river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, A.W.

1988-01-01

This report describes an interactive-accounting model used to simulate streamflow, chemical-constituent concentrations and loads, and water-supply operations in a river basin. The model uses regression equations to compute flow from incremental (internode) drainage areas. Conservative chemical constituents (typically dissolved solids) also are computed from regression equations. Both flow and water quality loads are accumulated downstream. Optionally, the model simulates the water use and the simplified groundwater systems of a basin. Water users include agricultural, municipal, industrial, and in-stream users , and reservoir operators. Water users list their potential water sources, including direct diversions, groundwater pumpage, interbasin imports, or reservoir releases, in the order in which they will be used. Direct diversions conform to basinwide water law priorities. The model is interactive, and although the input data exist in files, the user can modify them interactively. A major feature of the model is its color-graphic-output options. This report includes a description of the model, organizational charts of subroutines, and examples of the graphics. Detailed format instructions for the input data, example files of input data, definitions of program variables, and listing of the FORTRAN source code are Attachments to the report. (USGS)

Analysis of shallow-groundwater dynamic responses to water supply change in the Haihe River plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Z.; Lin, W.; Pengfei, L.

2015-05-01

When the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is completed, the water supply pattern of the Haihe River plain in North China will change significantly due to the replenishment of water sources and groundwater-exploitation control. The water-cycle-simulation model - MODCYCLE, has been used in simulating the groundwater dynamic balance for 2001-2010. Then different schemes of water supply in 2020 and 2030 were set up to quantitatively simulate the shallow-groundwater dynamic responses in the future. The results show that the total shallow-groundwater recharge is mainly raised by the increases in precipitation infiltration and surface-water irrigation infiltration. Meanwhile, the decrease of groundwater withdrawal contributes to reduce the total discharge. The recharge-discharge structure of local groundwater was still in a negative balance but improved gradually. The shallow-groundwater level in most parts was still falling before 2030, but more slowly. This study can benefit the rational exploitation of water resources in the Haihe River plain.

Simulation of the effects of nearby quarrying operations on ground-water flow at the South Well Field, Franklin County, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nalley, Gregory M.; Haefner, Ralph J.

1999-01-01

The City of Columbus, Ohio, operates a municipal well field in southern Franklin County that is adjacent to a sand and gravel mining operation. Mining operations have the potential to alter ground-water flowpaths and change the sources of water to pumped wells. Previous ground-water-flow modeling of the area has shown that water pumped from the supply wells is derived from infiltration from nearby rivers and surrounding bedrock. Some of that water flows through existing quarries. Because water quality differs among these sources and is affected by the path along which water flows to the wells, five flow conditions were simulated to evaluate the influence of different mining scenarios on sources of water as related to the size and shape of contributing recharge areas (CRAs) to wells. The first simulation was based on a revision of an existing model by Schalk (1996). The second and third simulations included one in which a 20-foot layer of undisturbed aquifer material within the quarry above the bedrock is left intact, and another in which the 20-foot layer is removed. The fourth and fifth simulations included one in which the 20-foot layer of undisturbed aquifer material is left above the bedrock and the quarry is backfilled with fine- grained sand and silt (a byproduct of the mining operations), and another in which the 20-foot layer is removed before the quarry is backfilled with the fine-grained sand and silt. The results of the five model simulations indicate that the overall volumetric budgets among models change only slightly in response to changing conditions at the quarry. The most significant change is noted in the amount of water that the aquifers gained from constant head and river leakage. This change is due to the way the quarries were simulated and lower heads in the aquifers compared to those in simulations made with earlier models. Previously published model simulations showed that the 5-year CRAs did not extend into the area of the newest sand and gravel quarry. In this study, however, the size and shape of the CRAs differ in response to the addition of two supply wells, and the 5-year CRA for one of these wells intersects the sand and gravel quarry. Particle-tracking analysis indicates that the proportions of water from the principal water sources -- rivers, other quarries (excluding the quarry of interest), and bedrock -- stayed relatively constant among the model simulations. The number of particles that originate in the quarry of interest increased from about 1 percent of the total particles withdrawn through all wells when the 20-foot layer of undisturbed aquifer material was left intact, to 2 percent when the 20-foot layer was removed. In simulations in which the quarry of interest was filled with fine-grained sand and silt, the percentage of particles that travel through or originate in that quarry decreased to less than 1 percent of the total number of particles. Thus, the mining activities at the quarry of interest, combined with increased pumping at the two supply wells have only a small potential to change the overall water quality of water withdrawn from supply wells at the South Well Field.

Calibration of an estuarine sediment transport model to sediment fluxes as an intermediate step for simulation of geomorphic evolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2009-01-01

Modeling geomorphic evolution in estuaries is necessary to model the fate of legacy contaminants in the bed sediment and the effect of climate change, watershed alterations, sea level rise, construction projects, and restoration efforts. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport models used for this purpose typically are calibrated to water level, currents, and/or suspended-sediment concentrations. However, small errors in these tidal-timescale models can accumulate to cause major errors in geomorphic evolution, which may not be obvious. Here we present an intermediate step towards simulating decadal-timescale geomorphic change: calibration to estimated sediment fluxes (mass/time) at two cross-sections within an estuary. Accurate representation of sediment fluxes gives confidence in representation of sediment supply to and from the estuary during those periods. Several years of sediment flux data are available for the landward and seaward boundaries of Suisun Bay, California, the landward-most embayment of San Francisco Bay. Sediment flux observations suggest that episodic freshwater flows export sediment from Suisun Bay, while gravitational circulation during the dry season imports sediment from seaward sources. The Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS), a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, was adapted for Suisun Bay, for the purposes of hindcasting 19th and 20th century bathymetric change, and simulating geomorphic response to sea level rise and climatic variability in the 21st century. The sediment transport parameters were calibrated using the sediment flux data from 1997 (a relatively wet year) and 2004 (a relatively dry year). The remaining years of data (1998, 2002, 2003) were used for validation. The model represents the inter-annual and annual sediment flux variability, while net sediment import/export is accurately modeled for three of the five years. The use of sediment flux data for calibrating an estuarine geomorphic model guarantees that modeled geomorphic evolution will not exceed the actual supply of sediment from the watershed and seaward sources during the calibration period. Decadal trends in sediment supply (and therefore fluxes) can accumulate to alter decadal geomorphic change. Therefore, simulations of future geomorphic evolution are bolstered by this intermediate calibration step.

The water-energy nexus at water supply and its implications on the integrated water and energy management.

PubMed

Khalkhali, Masoumeh; Westphal, Kirk; Mo, Weiwei

2018-09-15

Water and energy are highly interdependent in the modern world, and hence, it is important to understand their constantly changing and nonlinear interconnections to inform the integrated management of water and energy. In this study, a hydrologic model, a water systems model, and an energy model were developed and integrated into a system dynamics modeling framework. This framework was then applied to a water supply system in the northeast US to capture its water-energy interactions under a set of future population, climate, and system operation scenarios. A hydrologic model was first used to simulate the system's hydrologic inflows and outflows under temperature and precipitation changes on a weekly-basis. A water systems model that combines the hydrologic model and management rules (e.g., water release and transfer) was then developed to dynamically simulate the system's water storage and water head. Outputs from the water systems model were used in the energy model to estimate hydropower generation. It was found that critical water-energy synergies and tradeoffs exist, and there is a possibility for integrated water and energy management to achieve better outcomes. This analysis also shows the importance of a holistic understanding of the systems as a whole, which would allow utility managers to make proactive long-term management decisions. The modeling framework is generalizable to other water supply systems with hydropower generation capacities to inform the integrated management of water and energy resources. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A queuing model for road traffic simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guerrouahane, N.; Aissani, D.; Bouallouche-Medjkoune, L.

We present in this article a stochastic queuing model for the raod traffic. The model is based on the M/G/c/c state dependent queuing model, and is inspired from the deterministic Godunov scheme for the road traffic simulation. We first propose a variant of M/G/c/c state dependent model that works with density-flow fundamental diagrams rather than density-speed relationships. We then extend this model in order to consider upstream traffic demand as well as downstream traffic supply. Finally, we show how to model a whole raod by concatenating raod sections as in the deterministic Godunov scheme.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Jason K.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Cafferty, Kara G.

In order to increase the sustainability and security of the nation’s energy supply, the U.S. Department of Energy through its Bioenergy Technology Office has set a vision for one billion tons of biomass to be processed for renewable energy and bioproducts annually by the year 2030. The Renewable Fuels Standard limits the amount of corn grain that can be used in ethanol conversion sold in the U.S, which is already at its maximum. Therefore making the DOE’s vision a reality requires significant growth in the advanced biofuels industry where currently three cellulosic biorefineries convert cellulosic biomass to ethanol. Risk mitigationmore » is central to growing the industry beyond its infancy to a level necessary to achieve the DOE vision. This paper focuses on reducing the supply risk that faces a firm that owns a cellulosic biorefinery. It uses risk theory and simulation modeling to build a risk assessment model based on causal relationships of underlying, uncertain, supply driving variables. Using the model the paper quantifies supply risk reduction achieved by converting the supply chain from a conventional supply system (bales and trucks) to an advanced supply system (depots, pellets, and trains). Results imply that the advanced supply system reduces supply system risk, defined as the probability of a unit cost overrun, from 83% in the conventional system to 4% in the advanced system. Reducing cost risk in this nascent industry improves the odds of realizing desired growth.« less

Fusing enhanced radar precipitation, in-situ hydrometeorological measurements and airborne LIDAR snowpack estimates in a hyper-resolution hydrologic model to improve seasonal water supply forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Busto, J.; Howard, K.; Mickey, J.; Deems, J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Richardson, M.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Tang, L.

2015-12-01

Scarcity of spatially- and temporally-continuous observations of precipitation and snowpack conditions in remote mountain watersheds results in fundamental limitations in water supply forecasting. These limitationsin observational capabilities can result in strong biases in total snowmelt-driven runoff amount, the elevational distribution of runoff, river basin tributary contributions to total basin runoff and, equally important for water management, the timing of runoff. The Upper Rio Grande River basin in Colorado and New Mexico is one basin where observational deficiencies are hypothesized to have significant adverse impacts on estimates of snowpack melt-out rates and on water supply forecasts. We present findings from a coordinated observational-modeling study within Upper Rio Grande River basin whose aim was to quanitfy the impact enhanced precipitation, meteorological and snowpack measurements on the simulation and prediction of snowmelt driven streamflow. The Rio Grande SNOwpack and streamFLOW (RIO-SNO-FLOW) Prediction Project conducted enhanced observing activities during the 2014-2015 water year. Measurements from a gap-filling, polarimetric radar (NOXP) and in-situ meteorological and snowpack measurement stations were assimilated into the WRF-Hydro modeling framework to provide continuous analyses of snowpack and streamflow conditions. Airborne lidar estimates of snowpack conditions from the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory during mid-April and mid-May were used as additional independent validations against the various model simulations and forecasts of snowpack conditions during the melt-out season. Uncalibrated WRF-Hydro model performance from simulations and forecasts driven by enhanced observational analyses were compared against results driven by currently operational data inputs. Precipitation estimates from the NOXP research radar validate significantly better against independent in situ observations of precipitation and snow-pack increases. Correcting the operational NLDAS2 forcing data with the experimental observations led to significant improvements in the seasonal accumulation and ablation of mountain snowpack and ultimately led to marked improvement in model simulated streamflow as compared with streamflow observations.

Modifying WEPP to improve streamflow simulation in a Pacific Northwest watershed

Treesearch

A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot; E. A. Bruner; S. Dun; E. S. Brooks; I. S. Miller

2013-01-01

The assessment of water yield from hillslopes into streams is critical in managing water supply and aquatic habitat. Streamflow is typically composed of surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and groundwater baseflow; baseflow sustains the stream during the dry season. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model simulates surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow...

Reconstructing Sediment Supply, Transport and Deposition Behind the Elwha River Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beveridge, C.

2017-12-01

The Elwha River watershed in Olympic National Park of Washington State, USA is predominantly a steep, mountainous landscape where dominant geomorphic processes include landslides, debris flows and gullying. The river is characterized by substantial variability of channel morphology and fluvial processes, and alternates between narrow bedrock canyons and wider alluvial reaches for much of its length. Literature suggests that the Elwha watershed is topographically and tectonically in steady state. The removal of the two massive hydropower dams along the river in 2013 marked the largest dam removal in history. Over the century long lifespan of the dams, approximately 21 million cubic meters of sediment was impounded behind them. Long term erosion rates documented in this region and reservoir sedimentation data give unprecedented opportunities to test watershed sediment yield models and examine dominant processes that control sediment yield over human time scales. In this study, we aim to reconstruct sediment supply, transport and deposition behind the Glines Canyon Dam (most upstream dam) over its lifespan using a watershed modeling approach. We developed alternative models of varying complexity for sediment production and transport at the network scale driven by hydrologic forcing. We simulate sediment supply and transport in tributaries upstream of the dam. The modeled sediment supply and transport dynamics are based on calibrated formulae (e.g., bedload transport is simulated using Wilcock-Crowe 2003 with modification based on observed bedload transport in the Elwha River). Observational data that aid in our approach include DEM, channel morphology, meteorology, and streamflow and sediment (bedload and suspended load) discharge. We aim to demonstrate how the observed sediment yield behind the dams was influenced by upstream transport supply and capacity limitations, thereby demonstrating the scale effects of flow and sediment transport processes in the Elwha River watershed.

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America. PMID:21034458

Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate-change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Roehl, Edwin A.; Daamen, Ruby C.; Cook, John B.

2013-01-01

Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. Changes in streamflow patterns in conjunction with sea-level rise may change the salinity-intrusion dynamics of coastal rivers. Several municipal water-supply intakes are located along the Georgia and South Carolina coast that are proximal to the present day saltwater-freshwater interface of tidal rivers. Increases in the extent of salinity intrusion resulting from climate change could threaten the availability of freshwater supplies in the vicinity of these intakes. To effectively manage these supplies, water-resource managers need estimates of potential changes in the frequency, duration, and magnitude of salinity intrusion near their water-supply intakes that may occur as a result of climate change. This study examines potential effects of climate change, including altered streamflow and sea-level rise, on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion near municipal water-supply intakes in two coastal areas. One area consists of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) and the Waccamaw River near Myrtle Beach along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina Coast, and the second area is on or near the lower Savannah River near Savannah, Georgia. The study evaluated how future sea-level rise and a reduction in streamflows can potentially affect salinity intrusion and threaten municipal water supplies and the biodiversity of freshwater tidal marshes in these two areas. Salinity intrusion occurs as a result of the interaction between three principal forces—streamflow, mean coastal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze and simulate salinity dynamics at critical coastal gaging stations near four municipal water-supply intakes, various data-mining techniques, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were used to evaluate hourly streamflow, salinity, and coastal water-level data collected over a period exceeding 10 years. The ANN models were trained (calibrated) to learn the specific interactions that cause salinity intrusions, and resulting models were able to accurately simulate historical salinity dynamics in both study areas. Changes in sea level and streamflow quantity and timing can be simulated by the salinity intrusion models to evaluate various climate-change scenarios. The salinity intrusion models for the study areas are deployed in a decision support system to facilitate the use of the models for management decisions by coastal water-resource managers. The report describes the use of the salinity-intrusion models decision support system to evaluate salinity-intrusion dynamics for various climate-change scenarios, including incremental increases in sea level in combination with incremental decreases in streamflow. Operation of municipal water-treatment plants is problematic when the specific-conductance values for source water are greater than 1,000 to 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter (µS/cm). High specific-conductance values contribute to taste problems that require treatment. Data from a gage downstream from a municipal water intake indicate specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm about 5.4 percent of the time over the 14-year period from August 1995 to August 2008. Simulations of specific conductance at this gaging station that incorporates sea-level rises resulted in a doubling of the exceedances to 11.0 percent for a 1-foot increase and 17.6 percent for a 2-foot increase. The frequency of intrusion of water with specific conductance values of 1,000 µS/cm was less sensitive to incremental reductions in streamflow than to incremental increases in sea level. Simulations of conditions associated with a 10-percent reduction in streamflow, in combination with a 1-foot rise in sea level, increased the percentage of time specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm at this site from 11.0 to 13.3 percent, and a 20-percent reduction in streamflow increased the percentage of time to 16.6 percent. Precipitation and temperature data from a global circulation model were used, after scale adjustments, as input to a watershed model of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River basin, which flows into the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway study area in South Carolina. The simulated streamflow for historical conditions and projected climate change in the future was used as input for the ANN model in decision support system. Results of simulations incorporating climate-change projections for alterations in streamflow indicate an increase in the frequency of salinity-intrusion events and a shift in the seasonal occurrence of the intrusion events from the summer to the fall.

Simulated effects of allocated and projected 2025 withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system, Gloucester and Northeastern Salem Counties, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Charles, Emmanuel; Nawyn, John P.; Voronin, Lois M.; Gordon, Alison D.

2011-01-01

Withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in New Jersey, which includes the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers, are the principal source of groundwater supply in northern Gloucester and northeastern Salem Counties in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Water levels in these aquifers have declined in response to pumping. With increased population growth and development expected in Gloucester County and parts of Salem County over the next 2 decades (2005-2025), withdrawals from these aquifers also are expected to increase. A steady-state groundwater-flow model, developed to simulate flow in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in northern Gloucester and northeastern Salem Counties, was calibrated to withdrawal conditions in 1998, when groundwater withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the model area were more than 10,100 Mgal/yr (million gallons per year). Withdrawals from water-purveyor wells accounted for about 63 percent of these withdrawals, and withdrawals from industrial self-supply wells accounted for about 32 percent. Withdrawals from agricultural-irrigation, commercial self-supply, and domestic self-supply wells accounted for the remaining 5 percent. Results of the 2000 baseline groundwater-flow simulation, incorporating average annual 1999-2001 groundwater withdrawals, indicate that the average simulated water levels in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers are 31, 27, and 30 feet below the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29), respectively, and the lowest simulated water levels are 77, 65, and 59 feet below NGVD 29, respectively. In the full-allocation scenario, the maximum State-permitted (allocated) groundwater withdrawals totaled 16,567 Mgal/yr, an increase of 72 percent from the 2000 baseline simulation. Results of the full-allocation simulation indicate that the average simulated water levels in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers are 49, 43, and 48 feet below NGVD 29, respectively, which are 18, 16, and 18 feet lower, respectively, than in the 2000 baseline simulation. The lowest simulated water levels are 156, 95, and 69 feet below NGVD 29, respectively, which are 79, 30, and 10 feet lower, respectively, than in the 2000 baseline simulation. Simulated net flow from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system to streams is 8,441 Mgal/yr in the 2000 baseline simulation but is 6,018 Mgal/yr in the full-allocation scenario, a decrease of 29 percent from the 2000 baseline simulation. Simulated net flow in the 2000 baseline simulation is 1,183 Mgal/yr from the aquifer system to the Delaware River but in the full-allocation scenario is 1,816 Mgal/yr from the river to the aquifer system. Four other simulations were conducted that incorporated full-allocation conditions at water-purveyor wells in Critical Area 2 but increased or decreased withdrawals at selected water-purveyor wells outside Critical Area 2 and agricultural-irrigation and industrial-self-supply wells in the study area. The results of the four simulations also indicate net flow from the Delaware River to the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system. A growth scenario was developed to simulate future withdrawals in 2025 estimated from population projections for municipalities in the Salem-Gloucester study area. Simulated withdrawals for this scenario totaled 10,261 Mgal/yr, an increase of 6 percent from the 2000 baseline simulation. This total includes about 25 Mgal/yr withdrawn from the Englishtown aquifer system for domestic self-supply. This scenario incorporated full-allocation withdrawals at water-purveyor wells in Critical Area 2, and increased withdrawals at water-purveyor wells outside Critical Area 2. Results of this simulation indicate that the average simulated water levels in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers are 32, 29, and 32 feet below NGVD 29, respectively, which are 1, 2, and

Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Evans, K. M.; Evett, S.

2016-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation or flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. Previous research and modeling for flood control reservoirs has shown that FIRO can reduce flood risk and increase water supply for many reservoirs. The risk-based method of FIRO presents a unique approach that incorporates flow forecasts made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) to model and assess risk of meeting or exceeding identified management targets or thresholds. Forecasted risk is evaluated against set risk tolerances to set reservoir flood releases. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 116,500 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United State Army Corps of Engineers and is operated by the Sonoma County Water Agency for water supply. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has been plagued with water supply reliability issues since 2007. FIRO is applied to Lake Mendocino by simulating daily hydrologic conditions from 1985 to 2010 in the Upper Russian River from Lake Mendocino to the City of Healdsburg approximately 50 miles downstream. The risk-based method is simulated using a 15-day, 61 member streamflow hindcast by the CNRFC. Model simulation results of risk-based flood operations demonstrate a 23% increase in average end of water year (September 30) storage levels over current operations. Model results show no increase in occurrence of flood damages for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that FIRO may be a viable flood control operations approach for Lake Mendocino and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

The Trick Simulation Toolkit: A NASA/Opensource Framework for Running Time Based Physics Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Penn, John M.

2016-01-01

The Trick Simulation Toolkit is a simulation development environment used to create high fidelity training and engineering simulations at the NASA Johnson Space Center and many other NASA facilities. Its purpose is to generate a simulation executable from a collection of user-supplied models and a simulation definition file. For each Trick-based simulation, Trick automatically provides job scheduling, numerical integration, the ability to write and restore human readable checkpoints, data recording, interactive variable manipulation, a run-time interpreter, and many other commonly needed capabilities. This allows simulation developers to concentrate on their domain expertise and the algorithms and equations of their models. Also included in Trick are tools for plotting recorded data and various other supporting utilities and libraries. Trick is written in C/C++ and Java and supports both Linux and MacOSX computer operating systems. This paper describes Trick's design and use at NASA Johnson Space Center.

Agent-based modeling and systems dynamics model reproduction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

North, M. J.; Macal, C. M.

2009-01-01

Reproducibility is a pillar of the scientific endeavour. We view computer simulations as laboratories for electronic experimentation and therefore as tools for science. Recent studies have addressed model reproduction and found it to be surprisingly difficult to replicate published findings. There have been enough failed simulation replications to raise the question, 'can computer models be fully replicated?' This paper answers in the affirmative by reporting on a successful reproduction study using Mathematica, Repast and Swarm for the Beer Game supply chain model. The reproduction process was valuable because it demonstrated the original result's robustness across modelling methodologies and implementation environments.

Food supply mechanisms for cold-water corals along a continental shelf edge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiem, Øyvind; Ravagnan, Elisa; Fosså, Jan Helge; Berntsen, Jarle

2006-05-01

In recent years it has been documented that deep-water coral reefs of the species Lophelia pertusa are a major benthic habitat in Norwegian waters. However, basic information about the biology and ecology of this species is still unknown. Lophelia live and thrive under special environmental conditions of which factors such as temperature, water depth, water movement and food supply are important. The present work explores the hypothesis that Lophelia forms reefs in places where the encounter rate of food particles is sufficiently high and stable over long periods of time for continuous growth. This is done by relating the distribution of reefs with the results of numerical ocean modelling. Numerical simulations have been performed with an idealized bottom topography similar to what is found outside parts of the Norwegian coast. In the simulations the model is first forced with an along slope jet and then with an idealized atmospheric low pressure. The model results show that the encounter rates between the particles and the water layer near the seabed are particularly high close to the shelf break. This may indicate that many Lophelia reefs are located along the shelf edges because the supply of food is particularly good in these areas. A sensitivity study of the particle supply in the area close to the seabed for increasing latitude has also been done. This shows that the Ekman transport in the benthic layer tends to create a steady supply of food for benthic organisms near the shelf edge away from the equator.

Quantifying Supply Risk at a Cellulosic Biorefinery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Jason K; Jacobson, Jacob Jordan; Cafferty, Kara Grace

In order to increase the sustainability and security of the nation’s energy supply, the U.S. Department of Energy through its Bioenergy Technology Office has set a vision for one billion tons of biomass to be processed for renewable energy and bioproducts annually by the year 2030. The Renewable Fuels Standard limits the amount of corn grain that can be used in ethanol conversion sold in the U.S, which is already at its maximum. Therefore making the DOE’s vision a reality requires significant growth in the advanced biofuels industry where currently three cellulosic biorefineries convert cellulosic biomass to ethanol. Risk mitigationmore » is central to growing the industry beyond its infancy to a level necessary to achieve the DOE vision. This paper focuses on reducing the supply risk that faces a firm that owns a cellulosic biorefinery. It uses risk theory and simulation modeling to build a risk assessment model based on causal relationships of underlying, uncertain, supply driving variables. Using the model the paper quantifies supply risk reduction achieved by converting the supply chain from a conventional supply system (bales and trucks) to an advanced supply system (depots, pellets, and trains). Results imply that the advanced supply system reduces supply system risk, defined as the probability of a unit cost overrun, from 83% in the conventional system to 4% in the advanced system. Reducing cost risk in this nascent industry improves the odds of realizing desired growth.« less

Laser beam coupling with capillary discharge plasma for laser wakefield acceleration applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagdasarov, G. A.; Sasorov, P. V.; Gasilov, V. A.; Boldarev, A. S.; Olkhovskaya, O. G.; Benedetti, C.; Bulanov, S. S.; Gonsalves, A.; Mao, H.-S.; Schroeder, C. B.; van Tilborg, J.; Esarey, E.; Leemans, W. P.; Levato, T.; Margarone, D.; Korn, G.

2017-08-01

One of the most robust methods, demonstrated to date, of accelerating electron beams by laser-plasma sources is the utilization of plasma channels generated by the capillary discharges. Although the spatial structure of the installation is simple in principle, there may be some important effects caused by the open ends of the capillary, by the supplying channels etc., which require a detailed 3D modeling of the processes. In the present work, such simulations are performed using the code MARPLE. First, the process of capillary filling with cold hydrogen before the discharge is fired, through the side supply channels is simulated. Second, the simulation of the capillary discharge is performed with the goal to obtain a time-dependent spatial distribution of the electron density near the open ends of the capillary as well as inside the capillary. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the beam coupling with the channeling plasma wave guide and of the electron acceleration, modeling of the laser-plasma interaction was performed with the code INF&RNO.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Saginaw Aquifer, Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham counties, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Luukkonen, Carol L.; Nicholas, J.R.

1996-01-01

A numerical model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Tri-County region, which consists of Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan. This region includes a nine-township area surrounding Lansing, Michigan. The model simulates the regional response of the Saginaw aquifer to major groundwater withdrawals associated with public-supply wells. The Saginaw aquifer, which is in the Grand River and Saginaw Formations of Pennsylvanian age, is the primary source of ground water for Tri-County residents. The Saginaw aquifer is overlain by glacial deposits, which also are important ground-water sources in some locations. Flow in the Saginaw aquifer and the glacial deposits is simulated by discretizing the flow system into model cells arranged in two layers. Each cell, which corresponds to a land area of 0.0625 square mile, represents the locally averaged properties of the system. The spatial variation of hydraulic properties controlling ground-water flow was estimated by geostatistical analysis of 4,947 well logs. Parameter estimation, a form of nonlinear regression, was used to calibrate the flow model. Results of steady-state ground-water-flow simulations show close agreement between water flowing into and out of the model area for 1992 pumping conditions; standard error of the difference between simulated and measured heads is 14.7 feet. Simulation results for three alternative pumping scenarios for the year 2020 show that the glacial aquifer could be dewatered in places if hypothetical increases in pumping are not distributed throughout the Tri-County region. Contributing areas to public-supply wells in the nine-township area were delineated by a particle-tracking analysis. These areas cover about 121 square miles. Contributing areas for particles having travel times of 40 years or less cover about 42 square miles. Results of tritium sampling support results of model simulations to delineate contributing areas.

Embedding an evolving agricultural system within a water resources planning model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C.; Joyce, B.; Purkey, D.; Dale, L.; Mehta, V.

2008-12-01

The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system is a comprehensive, fully integrated water basin analysis tool. It is a simulation model that includes a robust and flexible representation of water demands from all sectors and flexible, programmable operating rules for infrastructure elements such as reservoirs, canals, and hydropower projects. Additionally, it has watershed rainfall-runoff modeling capabilities that allow all portions of the water infrastructure and demand to be dynamically nested within the underlying hydrological processes. WEAP also allows for linking with other models to provide feedback mechanisms whereby the management regime can be altered to respond to changing water supply conditions. This study presents an application wherein the year-to-year cropping decisions of farmers in California's Central Valley are reactive to changes in water supply conditions. To capture this dynamic, we have included in WEAP a link to an agricultural economics model (the Central Valley Production Model) that relates cropping decisions to water supply conditions (surface water allocations and depth to groundwater) and economic considerations (cost of electricity) at the time of planting. This linked model was used to evaluate changes in water supply and demand in the context of projected climate change over the next century.

Augmenting Transport versus Increasing Cold Storage to Improve Vaccine Supply Chains

PubMed Central

Haidari, Leila A.; Connor, Diana L.; Wateska, Angela R.; Brown, Shawn T.; Mueller, Leslie E.; Norman, Bryan A.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Paul, Proma; Rajgopal, Jayant; Welling, Joel S.; Leonard, Jim; Chen, Sheng-I; Lee, Bruce Y.

2013-01-01

Background When addressing the urgent task of improving vaccine supply chains, especially to accommodate the introduction of new vaccines, there is often a heavy emphasis on stationary storage. Currently, donations to vaccine supply chains occur largely in the form of storage equipment. Methods This study utilized a HERMES-generated detailed, dynamic, discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain to compare the impacts on vaccine availability of adding stationary cold storage versus transport capacity at different levels and to determine whether adding stationary storage capacity alone would be enough to relieve potential bottlenecks when pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines are introduced by 2015. Results Relieving regional level storage bottlenecks increased vaccine availability (by 4%) more than relieving storage bottlenecks at the district (1% increase), central (no change), and clinic (no change) levels alone. Increasing transport frequency (or capacity) yielded far greater gains (e.g., 15% increase in vaccine availability when doubling transport frequency to the district level and 18% when tripling). In fact, relieving all stationary storage constraints could only increase vaccine availability by 11%, whereas doubling the transport frequency throughout the system led to a 26% increase and tripling the frequency led to a 30% increase. Increasing transport frequency also reduced the amount of stationary storage space needed in the supply chain. The supply chain required an additional 61,269L of storage to relieve constraints with the current transport frequency, 55,255L with transport frequency doubled, and 51,791L with transport frequency tripled. Conclusions When evaluating vaccine supply chains, it is important to understand the interplay between stationary storage and transport. The HERMES-generated dynamic simulation model showed how augmenting transport can result in greater gains than only augmenting stationary storage and can reduce stationary storage needs. PMID:23717590

Augmenting transport versus increasing cold storage to improve vaccine supply chains.

PubMed

Haidari, Leila A; Connor, Diana L; Wateska, Angela R; Brown, Shawn T; Mueller, Leslie E; Norman, Bryan A; Schmitz, Michelle M; Paul, Proma; Rajgopal, Jayant; Welling, Joel S; Leonard, Jim; Chen, Sheng-I; Lee, Bruce Y

2013-01-01

When addressing the urgent task of improving vaccine supply chains, especially to accommodate the introduction of new vaccines, there is often a heavy emphasis on stationary storage. Currently, donations to vaccine supply chains occur largely in the form of storage equipment. This study utilized a HERMES-generated detailed, dynamic, discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain to compare the impacts on vaccine availability of adding stationary cold storage versus transport capacity at different levels and to determine whether adding stationary storage capacity alone would be enough to relieve potential bottlenecks when pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines are introduced by 2015. Relieving regional level storage bottlenecks increased vaccine availability (by 4%) more than relieving storage bottlenecks at the district (1% increase), central (no change), and clinic (no change) levels alone. Increasing transport frequency (or capacity) yielded far greater gains (e.g., 15% increase in vaccine availability when doubling transport frequency to the district level and 18% when tripling). In fact, relieving all stationary storage constraints could only increase vaccine availability by 11%, whereas doubling the transport frequency throughout the system led to a 26% increase and tripling the frequency led to a 30% increase. Increasing transport frequency also reduced the amount of stationary storage space needed in the supply chain. The supply chain required an additional 61,269L of storage to relieve constraints with the current transport frequency, 55,255L with transport frequency doubled, and 51,791L with transport frequency tripled. When evaluating vaccine supply chains, it is important to understand the interplay between stationary storage and transport. The HERMES-generated dynamic simulation model showed how augmenting transport can result in greater gains than only augmenting stationary storage and can reduce stationary storage needs.

Simulated effects of the 2003 permitted withdrawals and water-management alternatives on reservoir storage and firm yields of three surface-water supplies, Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.

2004-01-01

The Hydrologic Simulation ProgramFORTRAN (HSPF) model of the Ipswich River Basin previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was modified to evaluate the effects of the 2003 withdrawal permits and water-management alternatives on reservoir storage and yields of the Lynn, Peabody, and SalemBeverly water-supply systems. These systems obtain all or part of their water from the Ipswich River Basin. The HSPF model simulated the complex water budgets to the three supply systems, including effects of regulations that restrict withdrawals by the time of year, minimum streamflow thresholds, and the capacity of each system to pump water from the river. The 2003 permits restrict withdrawals from the Ipswich River between November 1 and May 31 to streamflows above a 1.0 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) threshold, to high flows between June 1 and October 31, and to a maximum annual volume. Yields and changes in reservoir storage over the 35-year simulation period (196195) were also evaluated for each system with a hypothetical low-capacity pump, alternative seasonal streamflow thresholds, and withdrawals that result in successive failures (depleted storage). The firm yields, the maximum yields that can be met during a severe drought, calculated for each water-supply system, under the 2003 permitted withdrawals, were 7.31 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for the Lynn, 3.01 Mgal/d for the Peabody, and 7.98 Mgal/d for the SalemBeverly systems; these yields are 31, 49, and 21 percent less than their average 19982000 demands, respectively. The simulations with the same permit restrictions and a hypothetical low-capacity pump for each system resulted in slightly increased yields for the Lynn and SalemBeverly systems, but a slightly decreased yield for the Peabody system. Simulations to evaluate the effects of alternative streamflow thresholds on water supply indicated that firm yields were generally about twice as sensitive to decreases in the NovemberFebruary or MarchMay thresholds than to increases in these thresholds. Firm yields were also generally slightly less sensitive to changes in the NovemberFebruary than to changes in the MarchMay thresholds in the Peabody and SalemBeverly water-supply systems. Decreases in the JuneOctober streamflow threshold did not affect any of the system's firm yield. Simulations of withdrawal rates that resulted in successive near failures during the 196195 period indicated the tradeoff between increased yield and risks. The Lynn and Peabody systems were allowed to near failure up to six times. At the sixth near failure, yields of these systems increased to 10.18 and 4.43 Mgal/d, respectively; these rates increased the amount of water obtained from the Ipswich River Basin (relative to the firm-yield rate), as a percentage of average 19982000 demands, from 68 to 96 percent and from 51 to 75 percent, respectively. The SalemBeverly system was able to meet demands after the third near failure. Reservoir storage was depleted about 6 percent of the time at the withdrawal rate that caused the sixth near failure in the Lynn and Peabody system and about 3 percent of the time at the withdrawal rate that caused the third near failure in the SalemBeverly system. Supply systems are at greatest risk of failure from persistent droughts (lasting more than 1 year), but short-term droughts also present risks during the fall and winter when the supply systems are most vulnerable. Uncertainties in model performance, simplification of reservoir systems and their management, and the possibility of droughts of severity greater than simulated in this investigation underscore the fact that the firm yield calculated for each system cannot be considered a withdrawal rate that is absolutely fail-safe. Thus, the consequences of failure are an important consideration in the planning and management of these systems.

Multiphase High-Frequency Isolated DC-DC Converter for Industrial Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurya, Rakesh; Srivastava, S. P.; Agarwal, Pramod

2014-01-01

Industrial applications such as welding, plasma cutting, and surface hardening require a large DC current at low voltage. In such applications, the rating of power supply varies from few kilowatts to hundreds of kilowatts. The power supply employs in such applications particularly in arc welding process is expected to operate from open-circuit (no-load) to short-circuit (when the electrode sticks to the workpiece for a short span of time) quickly. In this paper, high-frequency isolated multiphase DC-DC converter is proposed which is well suited for aforementioned applications. Based on mathematical analysis, a simulation study with 5 kW, 5 V/1,000 A proposed model is carried out using Simulink block set and Sim Power System tool box and its performances are evaluated under symmetrical control methods. To verify the simulation results, scaled prototype model of rating 1.5 V/100 A is developed and tested with aforementioned control method under different operating conditions. In comparison with conventional welding power supply employed in many industries, the performance of proposed converter is improved significantly in terms of size and weight, efficiency and dynamic response.

The Model of Gas Supply Capacity Simulation In Regional Energy Security Framework: Policy Studies PT. X Cirebon Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuryadin; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

2017-10-01

The needs of energy are increasing every year. The unavailability of energy will cause economic losses and weaken energy security. To overcome the availability of gas supply in the future, planning are cruacially needed. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the system, so that the process of gas distribution is running properly. In this research, system dynamic method will be used to measure how much supply capacity planning is needed until 2050, with parameters of demand in industrial, household and commercial sectors. From the model obtained PT.X Cirebon area in 2031 was not able to meet the needs of gas customers in the Cirebon region, as well as with Businnes as usual scenario, the ratio of gas fulfillment only until 2027. The implementation of the national energy policy that is the use of NRE as government intervention in the model is produced up to 2035 PT.X Cirebon area is still able to supply the gas needs of its customers.

Reducing stock-outs of essential tuberculosis medicines: a system dynamics modelling approach to supply chain management.

PubMed

Bam, L; McLaren, Z M; Coetzee, E; von Leipzig, K H

2017-10-01

The under-performance of supply chains presents a significant hindrance to disease control in developing countries. Stock-outs of essential medicines lead to treatment interruption which can force changes in patient drug regimens, drive drug resistance and increase mortality. This study is one of few to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of supply chain policies in reducing shortages and costs. This study develops a systems dynamics simulation model of the downstream supply chain for amikacin, a second-line tuberculosis drug using 10 years of South African data. We evaluate current supply chain performance in terms of reliability, responsiveness and agility, following the widely-used Supply Chain Operation Reference framework. We simulate 141 scenarios that represent different combinations of supplier characteristics, inventory management strategies and demand forecasting methods to identify the Pareto optimal set of management policies that jointly minimize the number of shortages and total cost. Despite long supplier lead times and unpredictable demand, the amikacin supply chain is 98% reliable and agile enough to accommodate a 20% increase in demand without a shortage. However, this is accomplished by overstocking amikacin by 167%, which incurs high holding costs. The responsiveness of suppliers is low: only 57% of orders are delivered to the central provincial drug depot within one month. We identify three Pareto optimal safety stock management policies. Short supplier lead time can produce Pareto optimal outcomes even in the absence of other optimal policies. This study produces concrete, actionable guidelines to cost-effectively reduce stock-outs by implementing optimal supply chain policies. Preferentially selecting drug suppliers with short lead times accommodates unexpected changes in demand. Optimal supply chain management should be an essential component of national policy to reduce the mortality rate. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Analysis on pressure characteristics of pump turbine guide bearing rotating sump based on VOF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, L. M.; Yao, Z.; Huang, Q. S.; Xiao, Y. X.; Wang, Z. W.

2013-12-01

With the technology of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), this paper conducts a 3D numerical simulation for the oil and gas flow field in the Pump turbine guide bearing rotating sump. VOF model is adopted in this simulation. This study calculates distribution of the oil-air phase and characteristics of the pressure. The influence of sump rotating speed, oil level and oil viscosity on the pressure at the inlet of oil-immersion plate are discussed. The results demonstrate that the static pressure at the inlet is roughly proportional to oil level. Too low level may result in the separation between lubrication oil and supply hole on the oil-immersion plate, which then disables the oil supply. The static pressure at the inlet increases parabola as the sump rotating speed increases. To ensure the supply pressure, the unit is not suitable for long time operation under low rotating speed. The temperature-viscosity effect of the lubricant oil has little influence on the oil pressure at the supply hole. This paper provides a theoretical base for the safe design and operation of the pump turbine rotating sump, and offers the inlet boundary condition for the analysis of the oil film dynamic characteristics of the turbine guide bearing.

Production and export in a global ocean ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, J. R.; Totterdell, I. J.

2001-05-01

The Hadley Centre Ocean Carbon Cycle (HadOCC) model is a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the ocean carbon cycle. It features an explicit representation of the marine ecosystem, which is assumed to be limited by nitrogen availability. The biogeochemical compartments are dissolved nutrient, total CO 2, total alkalinity, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus. The results of the standard simulation are presented. The annual primary production predicted by the model ( 47.7 Gt C yr -1) compares well to the estimates made by Longhurst et al. (1995, J. Plankton Res., 17, 1245) and Antoine et al. (1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10, 57). The HadOCC model finds high production in the sub-polar North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, and around the Antarctic convergence, and low production in the sub-tropical gyres. However in disagreement with the observations of Longhurst et al. and Antoine et al., the model predicts very high production in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The export flux of carbon in the model agrees well with data from deep-water sediment traps. In order to examine the factors controlling production in the ocean, additional simulations have been run. A nutrient-restoring simulation confirms that the areas with the highest primary production are those with the greatest nutrient supply. A reduced wind-stress experiment demonstrates that the high production found in the equatorial Pacific is driven by excessive upwelling of nutrient-rich water. Three further simulations show that nutrient supply at high latitudes, and hence production there, is sensitive to the parameters and climatological forcings of the mixed layer sub-model.

A hybrid genetic-simulated annealing algorithm for the location-inventory-routing problem considering returns under e-supply chain environment.

PubMed

Li, Yanhui; Guo, Hao; Wang, Lin; Fu, Jing

2013-01-01

Facility location, inventory control, and vehicle routes scheduling are critical and highly related problems in the design of logistics system for e-business. Meanwhile, the return ratio in Internet sales was significantly higher than in the traditional business. Many of returned merchandise have no quality defects, which can reenter sales channels just after a simple repackaging process. Focusing on the existing problem in e-commerce logistics system, we formulate a location-inventory-routing problem model with no quality defects returns. To solve this NP-hard problem, an effective hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithm (HGSAA) is proposed. Results of numerical examples show that HGSAA outperforms GA on computing time, optimal solution, and computing stability. The proposed model is very useful to help managers make the right decisions under e-supply chain environment.

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL QUALITY ASSURANCE REPORT: DYNAMIC WAVE FLOW ROUTING

EPA Science Inventory

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a computer-based tool for simulating storm water runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. In 2002 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Water Supply and Water Resources Division partnered with the consulting firm CDM ...

An Atmospheric Guidance Algorithm Testbed for the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Striepe, Scott A.; Queen, Eric M.; Powell, Richard W.; Braun, Robert D.; Cheatwood, F. McNeil; Aguirre, John T.; Sachi, Laura A.; Lyons, Daniel T.

1998-01-01

An Atmospheric Flight Team was formed by the Mars Surveyor Program '01 mission office to develop aerocapture and precision landing testbed simulations and candidate guidance algorithms. Three- and six-degree-of-freedom Mars atmospheric flight simulations have been developed for testing, evaluation, and analysis of candidate guidance algorithms for the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander. These simulations are built around the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories. Subroutines were supplied by Atmospheric Flight Team members for modeling the Mars atmosphere, spacecraft control system, aeroshell aerodynamic characteristics, and other Mars 2001 mission specific models. This paper describes these models and their perturbations applied during Monte Carlo analyses to develop, test, and characterize candidate guidance algorithms.

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in the Central Oklahoma (Garber-Wellington) Aquifer, Oklahoma, 1987 to 2009, and simulation of available water in storage, 2010–2059

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mashburn, Shana L.; Ryter, Derek W.; Neel, Christopher R.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Magers, Jessica S.

2014-02-10

The Central Oklahoma (Garber-Wellington) aquifer underlies about 3,000 square miles of central Oklahoma. The study area for this investigation was the extent of the Central Oklahoma aquifer. Water from the Central Oklahoma aquifer is used for public, industrial, commercial, agricultural, and domestic supply. With the exception of Oklahoma City, all of the major communities in central Oklahoma rely either solely or partly on groundwater from this aquifer. The Oklahoma City metropolitan area, incorporating parts of Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, and Oklahoma Counties, has a population of approximately 1.2 million people. As areas are developed for groundwater supply, increased groundwater withdrawals may result in decreases in long-term aquifer storage. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, investigated the hydrogeology and simulated groundwater flow in the aquifer using a numerical groundwater-flow model. The purpose of this report is to describe an investigation of the Central Oklahoma aquifer that included analyses of the hydrogeology, hydrogeologic framework of the aquifer, and construction of a numerical groundwater-flow model. The groundwater-flow model was used to simulate groundwater levels and for water-budget analysis. A calibrated transient model was used to evaluate changes in groundwater storage associated with increased future water demands.

Teaching Lean Six Sigma within a Supply Chain Context: The Airplane Supply Chain Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellis, Scott C.; Goldsby, Thomas J.; Bailey, Ana M.; Oh, Jae-Young

2014-01-01

Lean six sigma is a management methodology that firms can employ to achieve substantial improvement in supply chain performance. However, few pedagogical exercises facilitate students' use of a comprehensive set of lean six sigma principles within a supply chain context. We describe the Airplane Supply Chain Simulation that helps students…

More efficient optimization of long-term water supply portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirsch, Brian R.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Dillard, Karen E. M.; Kelley, C. T.

2009-03-01

The use of temporary transfers, such as options and leases, has grown as utilities attempt to meet increases in demand while reducing dependence on the expansion of costly infrastructure capacity (e.g., reservoirs). Earlier work has been done to construct optimal portfolios comprising firm capacity and transfers, using decision rules that determine the timing and volume of transfers. However, such work has only focused on the short-term (e.g., 1-year scenarios), which limits the utility of these planning efforts. Developing multiyear portfolios can lead to the exploration of a wider range of alternatives but also increases the computational burden. This work utilizes a coupled hydrologic-economic model to simulate the long-term performance of a city's water supply portfolio. This stochastic model is linked with an optimization search algorithm that is designed to handle the high-frequency, low-amplitude noise inherent in many simulations, particularly those involving expected values. This noise is detrimental to the accuracy and precision of the optimized solution and has traditionally been controlled by investing greater computational effort in the simulation. However, the increased computational effort can be substantial. This work describes the integration of a variance reduction technique (control variate method) within the simulation/optimization as a means of more efficiently identifying minimum cost portfolios. Random variation in model output (i.e., noise) is moderated using knowledge of random variations in stochastic input variables (e.g., reservoir inflows, demand), thereby reducing the computing time by 50% or more. Using these efficiency gains, water supply portfolios are evaluated over a 10-year period in order to assess their ability to reduce costs and adapt to demand growth, while still meeting reliability goals. As a part of the evaluation, several multiyear option contract structures are explored and compared.

Forest gradient response in Sierran landscapes: the physical template

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Dean L.; Miller, Carol; Halpin, Patrick N.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2000-01-01

Vegetation pattern on landscapes is the manifestation of physical gradients, biotic response to these gradients, and disturbances. Here we focus on the physical template as it governs the distribution of mixed-conifer forests in California's Sierra Nevada. We extended a forest simulation model to examine montane environmental gradients, emphasizing factors affecting the water balance in these summer-dry landscapes. The model simulates the soil moisture regime in terms of the interaction of water supply and demand: supply depends on precipitation and water storage, while evapotranspirational demand varies with solar radiation and temperature. The forest cover itself can affect the water balance via canopy interception and evapotranspiration. We simulated Sierran forests as slope facets, defined as gridded stands of homogeneous topographic exposure, and verified simulated gradient response against sample quadrats distributed across Sequoia National Park. We then performed a modified sensitivity analysis of abiotic factors governing the physical gradient. Importantly, the model's sensitivity to temperature, precipitation, and soil depth varies considerably over the physical template, particularly relative to elevation. The physical drivers of the water balance have characteristic spatial scales that differ by orders of magnitude. Across large spatial extents, temperature and precipitation as defined by elevation primarily govern the location of the mixed conifer zone. If the analysis is constrained to elevations within the mixed-conifer zone, local topography comes into play as it influences drainage. Soil depth varies considerably at all measured scales, and is especially dominant at fine (within-stand) scales. Physical site variables can influence soil moisture deficit either by affecting water supply or water demand; these effects have qualitatively different implications for forest response. These results have clear implications about purely inferential approaches to gradient analysis, and bear strongly on our ability to use correlative approaches in assessing the potential responses of montane forests to anthropogenic climatic change.

A model of the impact of reimbursement schemes on health plan choice.

PubMed

Keeler, E B; Carter, G; Newhouse, J P

1998-06-01

Flat capitation (uniform prospective payments) makes enrolling healthy enrollees profitable to health plans. Plans with relatively generous benefits may attract the sick and fail through a premium spiral. We simulate a model of idealized managed competition to explore the effect on market performance of alternatives to flat capitation such as severity-adjusted capitation and reduced supply-side cost-sharing. In our model flat capitation causes severe market problems. Severity adjustment and to a lesser extent reduced supply-side cost-sharing improve market performance, but outcomes are efficient only in cases in which people bear the marginal costs of their choices.

Simulative and experimental investigation on stator winding turn and unbalanced supply voltage fault diagnosis in induction motors using Artificial Neural Networks.

PubMed

Lashkari, Negin; Poshtan, Javad; Azgomi, Hamid Fekri

2015-11-01

The three-phase shift between line current and phase voltage of induction motors can be used as an efficient fault indicator to detect and locate inter-turn stator short-circuit (ITSC) fault. However, unbalanced supply voltage is one of the contributing factors that inevitably affect stator currents and therefore the three-phase shift. Thus, it is necessary to propose a method that is able to identify whether the unbalance of three currents is caused by ITSC or supply voltage fault. This paper presents a feedforward multilayer-perceptron Neural Network (NN) trained by back propagation, based on monitoring negative sequence voltage and the three-phase shift. The data which are required for training and test NN are generated using simulated model of stator. The experimental results are presented to verify the superior accuracy of the proposed method. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

How Influenza Vaccination Policy May affect Vaccine Logistics

PubMed Central

Assi, Tina-Marie; Rookkapan, Korngamon; Rajgopal, Jayant; Sornsrivichai, Vorasith; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Norman, Bryan A.; Connor, Diana L.; Chen, Sheng-I; Slayton, Rachel B.; Laosiritaworn, Yongjua; Wateska, Angela R.; Wisniewski, Stephen R.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2012-01-01

Background When policymakers make decision about the target populations and timing of influenza vaccination, they may not consider the impact on the vaccine supply chains, which may in turn affect vaccine availability. Purpose Our goal is to explore the effects on the Thailand vaccine supply chain of introducing influenza vaccines and varying the target populations and immunization time-frames. Methods Utilized our custom-designed software HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains), we developed a detailed, computational discrete-event simulation model of the Thailand's National Immunization Program (NIP) supply chain in Trang Province, Thailand., A suite of experiments simulated introducing influenza vaccines for different target populations and over different time-frames prior to and during the annual influenza season. Results Introducing influenza vaccines creates bottlenecks that reduce the availability of both influenza vaccines as well as the other NIP vaccines, with provincial to district transport capacity being the primary constraint. Even covering only 25% of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice-recommended population while administering the vaccine over six months hinders overall vaccine availability so that only 62% of arriving patients can receive vaccines. Increasing the target population from 25% to 100% progressively worsens these bottlenecks, while increasing influenza vaccination time - frame from 1 to 6 months decreases these bottlenecks. Conclusion Since the choice of target populations for influenza vaccination and the time-frame to deliver this vaccine can substantially affect the flow of all vaccines, policy-makers may want to consider supply chain effects when choosing target populations for a vaccine. PMID:22537993

Economic impacts of climate change on water resources in the coterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

A national-scale simulation-optimization model was created to generate estimates of economic impacts associated with changes in water supply and demand as influenced by climate change. Water balances were modeled for the 99 assessment sub-regions, and are presented for 18 water r...

Risk Based Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.; Hartman, R. K.

2017-12-01

Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) is a risk based approach of reservoir flood operations that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, each member of an ESP is individually modeled to forecast system conditions and calculate risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. Reservoir release decisions are computed which seek to manage forecasted risk to established risk tolerance levels. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC, which approximates flow forecasts for 61 ensemble members for a 15-day horizon. Model simulation results of the EFO alternative demonstrate a 36% increase in median end of water year (September 30) storage levels over existing operations. Additionally, model results show no increase in occurrence of flows above flood stage for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that the EFO alternative may be a viable approach for managing Lake Mendocino for multiple purposes (water supply, flood mitigation, ecosystems) and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

Spectral decontamination of a real-time helicopter simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfarland, R. E.

1983-01-01

Nonlinear mathematical models of a rotor system, referred to as rotating blade-element models, produce steady-state, high-frequency harmonics of significant magnitude. In a discrete simulation model, certain of these harmonics may be incompatible with realistic real-time computational constraints because of their aliasing into the operational low-pass region. However, the energy is an aliased harmonic may be suppressed by increasing the computation rate of an isolated, causal nonlinearity and using an appropriate filter. This decontamination technique is applied to Sikorsky's real-time model of the Black Hawk helicopter, as supplied to NASA for handling-qualities investigations.

Assessing the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination--Glacial aquifer system in Woodbury, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jagucki, Martha L.; Brown, Craig J.; Starn, J. Jeffrey; Eberts, Sandra M.

2010-01-01

This fact sheet highlights findings from the vulnerability study of a public-supply well in Woodbury, Connecticut. The well typically produces water at the rate of 72 gallons per minute from the glacial aquifer system in the Pomperaug River Basin. Water samples were collected at the public-supply well and at monitoring wells installed in or near the simulated zone of contribution to the supply well. Samples of untreated water from the public-supply wellhead contained several types of undesirable constituents, including 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrate, pesticides, uranium, and radon. Most of these constituents were detected at concentrations below drinking-water standards, where such standards exist. Only concentrations of the VOC trichlorethylene exceeded the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) established by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. Radon concentrations exceeded a proposed-but not finalized-MCL of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). Overall, the study findings point to four main factors that affect the movement and fate of contaminants and the vulnerability of the public-supply well in Woodbury: (1) groundwater age (how long ago water entered, or recharged, the aquifer); (2) the percentage of recharge received through urban areas; (3) the percentage of recharge received through dry wells and their proximity to the public-supply well; and (4) natural geochemical processes occurring within the aquifer system; that is, processes that affect the amounts and distribution of chemical substances in aquifer sediments and groundwater. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow to the public-supply well was used to estimate the age of water particles entering the well along the length of the well screen. About 90 percent of the simulated flow to the well consists of water that entered the aquifer 9 or fewer years ago. Such young water is vulnerable to contaminants resulting from human activities, as indicated by the solvents, fuel components, road salt, and septic-system leachate that were detected in the glacial aquifer system during the current study. Age-dating combined with chemical modeling suggests that less than 2 percent of water produced by the public-supply well is water from the deep bedrock that is "old" (water that recharged, or entered, the aquifer before 1952). Such a small percentage of old groundwater entering the public-supply well offers little potential for dilution of young waters containing contaminants from human activities. Shallow groundwater that originated as recharge through urban areas generally had higher median concentrations and more detections of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) than did groundwater from the deep glacial deposits or fractured bedrock that originated mainly as recharge through agricultural and undeveloped land. Shallow groundwater was also found to be affected by road salt and septic-system leachate. A chemical mixing model indicates that up to 15 percent of nitrate in water from the supply well is likely from septic-system leachate. The Connecticut Department of Public Health has identified several potential sources of contamination in the commercial area of Woodbury (several light industrial or commercial properties where hazardous materials and petroleum products are used and stored). To reduce stormwater runoff in the commercial area, water from the parking lots and pavement is channeled into dry wells-drains that shunt water directly into the aquifer system, bypassing the soil and unsaturated zones. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow indicates that approximately 16 percent of the water produced by the public-supply well is derived from runoff captured by these drains. Traveltime for water from the dry wells to the public-supply well ranges from about 1.5 to less than 4 years. Dry wells have the potential to enhance contaminant movement to the supply well, suggesting that stormwater-control methods cannot be considered separately from groundwater quality—they are linked. Water-quality protection in this setting depends on the entire community. If residents and businesses take steps to reduce input of manmade contaminants to groundwater, a positive effect on quality of the supply-well water might begin to be seen in less than 10 years, owing to the short residence time of water in the aquifer.

Employing a Modified Diffuser Momentum Model to Simulate Ventilation of the Orion CEV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Straus, John; Lewis, John F.

2011-01-01

The Ansys CFX CFD modeling tool was used to support the design efforts of the ventilation system for the Orion CEV. CFD modeling was used to establish the flow field within the cabin for several supply configurations. A mesh and turbulence model sensitivity study was performed before the design studies. Results were post-processed for comparison with performance requirements. Most configurations employed straight vaned diffusers to direct and throw the flow. To manage the size of the models, the diffuser vanes were not resolved. Instead, a momentum model was employed to account for the effect of the diffusers. The momentum model was tested against a separate, vane-resolved side study. Results are presented for a single diffuser configuration for a low supply flow case.

An empirical approach for estimating natural regeneration for the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Don Vandendriesche

2010-01-01

The “partial” establishment model that is available for most Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) geographic variants does not provide an estimate of natural regeneration. Users are responsible for supplying this key aspect of stand development. The process presented for estimating natural regeneration begins by summarizing small tree components based on observations from...

An integrative assessment of the commercial air transportation system via adaptive agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Choon Giap

The overarching research objective is to address the tightly-coupled interactions between the demand-side and supply-side components of the United States Commercial Air Transportation System (CATS) in a time-variant environment. A system-of-system perspective is adopted, where the scope is extended beyond the National Airspace System (NAS) level to the National Transportation System (NTS) level to capture the intermodal and multimodal relationships between the NTS stakeholders. The Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation technique is employed where the NTS/NAS is treated as an integrated Multi-Agent System comprising of consumer and service provider agents, representing the demand-side and supply-side components respectively. Successful calibration and validation of both model components against the observable real world data resulted in a CATS simulation tool where the aviation demand is estimated from socioeconomic and demographic properties of the population instead of merely based on enplanement growth multipliers. This valuable achievement enabled a 20-year outlook simulation study to investigate the implications of a global fuel price hike on the airline industry and the U.S. CATS at large. Simulation outcomes revealed insights into the airline competitive behaviors and the subsequent responses from transportation consumers.

Recovery of arctic tundra from thermal erosion disturbance is constrained by nutrient accumulation: a modeling analysis.

PubMed

Pearce, A R; Rastetter, E B; Kwiatkowski, B L; Bowden, W B; Mack, M C; Jiang, Y

2015-07-01

Abstract. We calibrated the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to Alaskan arctic tundra to simulate recovery of thermal erosion features (TEFs) caused by permafrost thaw and mass wasting. TEFs could significantly alter regional carbon (C) and nutrient budgets because permafrost soils contain large stocks of soil organic matter (SOM) and TEFs are expected to become more frequent as the climate warms. We simulated recovery following TEF stabilization and did not address initial, short-term losses of C and nutrients during TEF formation. To capture the variability among and within TEFs, we modeled a range of post-stabilization conditions by varying the initial size of SOM stocks and nutrient supply rates. Simulations indicate that nitrogen (N) losses after the TEF stabilizes are small, but phosphorus (P) losses continue. Vegetation biomass recovered 90% of its undisturbed C, N, and P stocks in 100 years using nutrients mineralized from SOM. Because of low litter inputs but continued decomposition, younger SOM continued to be lost for 10 years after the TEF began to recover, but recovered to about 84% of its undisturbed amount in 100 years. The older recalcitrant SOM in mineral soil continued to be lost throughout the 100-year simulation. Simulations suggest that biomass recovery depended on the amount of SOM remaining after disturbance. Recovery was initially limited by the photosynthetic capacity of vegetation but became co-limited by N and P once a plant canopy developed. Biomass and SOM recovery was enhanced by increasing nutrient supplies, but the magnitude, source, and controls on these supplies are poorly understood. Faster mineralization of nutrients from SOM (e.g., by warming) enhanced vegetation recovery but delayed recovery of SOM. Taken together, these results suggest that although vegetation and surface SOM on TEFs recovered quickly (25 and 100 years, respectively), the recovery of deep, mineral soil SOM took centuries and represented a major ecosystem C loss.

TechTuning: Stress Management For 3D Through-Silicon-Via Stacking Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radojcic, Riko; Nowak, Matt; Nakamoto, Mark

2011-09-01

The concerns with managing mechanical stress distributions and the consequent effects on device performance and material integrity, for advanced TSV based technologies 3D are outlined. A model and simulation based Design For Manufacturability (DFM) type of a flow for managing the mechanical stresses throughout Si die, stack and package design is proposed. The key attributes of the models and simulators required to fuel the proposed flow are summarized. Finally, some of the essential infrastructure and the Supply Chain support items are described.

Designing a Distributed Space Systems Simulation in Accordance with the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowen, Benjamin

2011-01-01

Simulations are essential for engineering design. These virtual realities provide characteristic data to scientists and engineers in order to understand the details and complications of the desired mission. A standard development simulation package known as Trick is used in developing a source code to model a component (federate in HLA terms). The runtime executive is integrated into an HLA based distributed simulation. TrickHLA is used to extend a Trick simulation for a federation execution, develop a source code for communication between federates, as well as foster data input and output. The project incorporates international cooperation along with team collaboration. Interactions among federates occur throughout the simulation, thereby relying on simulation interoperability. Communication through the semester went on between participants to figure out how to create this data exchange. The NASA intern team is designing a Lunar Rover federate and a Lunar Shuttle federate. The Lunar Rover federate supports transportation across the lunar surface and is essential for fostering interactions with other federates on the lunar surface (Lunar Shuttle, Lunar Base Supply Depot and Mobile ISRU Plant) as well as transporting materials to the desired locations. The Lunar Shuttle federate transports materials to and from lunar orbit. Materials that it takes to the supply depot include fuel and cargo necessary to continue moon-base operations. This project analyzes modeling and simulation technologies as well as simulation interoperability. Each team from participating universities will work on and engineer their own federate(s) to participate in the SISO Spring 2011 Workshop SIW Smackdown in Boston, Massachusetts. This paper will focus on the Lunar Rover federate.

The General Evolving Model for Energy Supply-Demand Network with Local-World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mei; Han, Dun; Li, Dandan; Fang, Cuicui

2013-10-01

In this paper, two general bipartite network evolving models for energy supply-demand network with local-world are proposed. The node weight distribution, the "shifting coefficient" and the scaling exponent of two different kinds of nodes are presented by the mean-field theory. The numerical results of the node weight distribution and the edge weight distribution are also investigated. The production's shifted power law (SPL) distribution of coal enterprises and the installed capacity's distribution of power plants in the US are obtained from the empirical analysis. Numerical simulations and empirical results are given to verify the theoretical results.

A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.

2012-01-01

Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Postaudit of optimal conjunctive use policies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter; ,

1998-01-01

A simulation-optimization model was developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought; however, this model addressed only groundwater flow and not the advective-dispersive, density-dependent transport of seawater. Zero-m freshwater head constraints at the coastal boundary were used as surrogates for the control of seawater intrusion. In this study, the strategies derived from the simulation-optimization model using two surface water supply scenarios are evaluated using a two-dimensional, density-dependent groundwater flow and transport model. Comparisons of simulated chloride mass fractions are made between maintaining the actual pumping policies of the 1987-91 drought and implementing the optimal pumping strategies for each scenario. The results indicate that using 0-m freshwater head constraints allowed no more seawater intrusion than under actual 1987-91 drought conditions and that the simulation-optimization model yields least-cost strategies that deliver more water than under actual drought conditions while controlling seawater intrusion.

Application of local indentations for film cooling of gas turbine blade leading edge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petelchyts, V. Yu.; Khalatov, A. A.; Pysmennyi, D. N.; Dashevskyy, Yu. Ya.

2016-09-01

The paper presents results of computer simulation of the film cooling on the turbine blade leading edge model where the air coolant is supplied through radial holes and row of cylindrical inclined holes placed inside hemispherical dimples or trench. The blowing factor was varied from 0.5 to 2.0. The model size and key initial parameters for simulation were taken as for a real blade of a high-pressure high-performance gas turbine. Simulation was performed using commercial software code ANSYS CFX. The simulation results were compared with reference variant (no dimples or trench) both for the leading edge area and for the flat plate downstream of the leading edge.

Effects of Simulated Land-Use Changes on Water Quality of Lake Maumelle, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Rheannon M.; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; Green, W. Reed; De Lanois, Jeanne L.

2011-01-01

Lake Maumelle is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock and North Little Rock metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more frequent, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two models were developed to partially address these concerns. A Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model was developed using input data collected from October 2004 through 2008. A CE-QUAL-W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water quality using the simulated output from the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model from January 2005 through 2008. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. Continuous streamflow data, discrete sediment concentration data, and other discrete water-quality data were used to calibrate the Lake Maumelle Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model. The CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data and reservoir pool altitude collected during January 2005 through December 2008 at three lake stations. In general, the overall simulation for the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and CE-UAL-W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. In general, simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Williams Junction (with differences-simulated minus measured value-generally ranging from -14 to 19 mg/L, and percent difference-relative to the measured value-ranging from -87 to 642 percent) and Wye (differences generally ranging from -2 to 14 mg/L, -62 to 251 percent); however, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model generally does not match the suspended-sediment concentrations for all stations during periods of stormflow (streamflow substantially influenced by runoff). Generally, this is also the case for fecal coliform bacteria numbers and total organic carbon and nutrient concentrations. In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest water temperatures (for temperature) or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations (for dissolved oxygen). For the CE-QUAL-W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured distributions even for complex temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and ammonia concentrations compared well with generally low measured values.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

Pricing strategy in a dual-channel and remanufacturing supply chain system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chengzhi; Xu, Feng; Sheng, Zhaohan

2010-07-01

This article addresses the pricing strategy problems in a supply chain system where the manufacturer sells original products and remanufactured products via indirect retailer channels and direct Internet channels. Due to the complexity of that system, agent technologies that provide a new way for analysing complex systems are used for modelling. Meanwhile, in order to reduce the computational load of searching procedure for optimal prices and profits, a learning search algorithm is designed and implemented within the multi-agent supply chain model. The simulation results show that the proposed model can find out optimal prices of original products and remanufactured products in both channels, which lead to optimal profits of the manufacturer and the retailer. It is also found that the optimal profits are increased by introducing direct channel and remanufacturing. Furthermore, the effect of customer preference, direct channel cost and remanufactured unit cost on optimal prices and profits are examined.

New description of gradual substitution of graft by bone tissue including biomechanical and structural effects, nutrients supply and consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yanfei; Lekszycki, Tomasz

2018-03-01

A new description of graft substitution by bone tissue is proposed in this work. The studied domain is considered as a continuum model consisting of a mixture of the bone tissue and the graft material. Densities of both components evolve in time as a result of cellular activity and biodegradation. The proposed model focuses on the interaction between the bone cell activity, mechanical stimuli, nutrients supply and scaffold microstructure. Different combinations of degradation rate and stiffness of the graft material were examined by numerical simulation. It follows from the calculations that the degradation rate of the scaffold should be tuned to the synthesis/resorption rate of the tissue, which are dependent among the others on scaffold porosity changes. Simulation results imply potential criteria to choose proper bone substitute material in consideration of degradation rate, initial porosity and mechanical characteristics.

A Hybrid Genetic-Simulated Annealing Algorithm for the Location-Inventory-Routing Problem Considering Returns under E-Supply Chain Environment

PubMed Central

Guo, Hao; Fu, Jing

2013-01-01

Facility location, inventory control, and vehicle routes scheduling are critical and highly related problems in the design of logistics system for e-business. Meanwhile, the return ratio in Internet sales was significantly higher than in the traditional business. Many of returned merchandise have no quality defects, which can reenter sales channels just after a simple repackaging process. Focusing on the existing problem in e-commerce logistics system, we formulate a location-inventory-routing problem model with no quality defects returns. To solve this NP-hard problem, an effective hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithm (HGSAA) is proposed. Results of numerical examples show that HGSAA outperforms GA on computing time, optimal solution, and computing stability. The proposed model is very useful to help managers make the right decisions under e-supply chain environment. PMID:24489489

Stackelberg Game of Buyback Policy in Supply Chain with a Risk-Averse Retailer and a Risk-Averse Supplier Based on CVaR

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions. PMID:25247605

Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

An important role of the moisture supply from the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension in the rapid development of an explosive cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, H.; Kawamura, R.; Kato, M.; Shinoda, T.

2014-12-01

We investigated how the moisture supply from the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension affects the rapid intensification of an explosive cyclone using a couple atmosphere-ocean non-hydrostatic model, CReSS-NHOES. The Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) and the Non-Hydrostatic Ocean model for the Earth Simulator (NHOES) have been developed by the Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center of Nagoya University and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, respectively. We performed a numerical simulation of an extratropical cyclone migrating along the southern periphery of the Kuroshio Current on January 14, 2013, that developed most rapidly in recent years in the vicinity of Japan. The evolutions of surface fronts related to the cyclone simulated by the CReSS-NHOES closely resemble Shapiro-Keyser model. In the lower troposphere, the cyclone's bent-back front and the associated frontal T-bone structure become evident with the cyclone development. Cold Conveyor Belt (CCB) is also well organized over the northern part of the cyclone. During its developing stage, since the CCB dominates just over the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension, a large amount of moisture is efficiently supplied from the warm current into the CCB. The vapor evaporated from the underlying warm current is transported into the bent-back front by the CCB and converges horizontally in the vicinity of the front. As a result, strong diabatic heating arises over the corresponding moisture convergence area in that vicinity, indicating that the abundant moisture due to the warm current plays a vital role in rapid development of the cyclone through latent heat release processes. Both processes of the moisture transport from the warm current into the cyclone system via the CCB and of the latent heat release around the bent-back front are also confirmed by trajectory analyses. The rapid SLP decrease of the cyclone center can in turn increase the moisture supply from the warm current through enhancement of the CCB. We anticipate that such a feedback process plays a key role in the rapid intensification of the cyclone highlighted in this study.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a source of distributed frequency regulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullen, Sara Kathryn

The movement to transform the North American power grid into a smart grid may be accomplished by expanding integrated sensing, communications, and control technologies to include every part of the grid to the point of end-use. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) provide an opportunity for small-scale distributed storage while they are plugged-in. With large numbers of PHEV and the communications and sensing associated with the smart grid, PHEV could provide ancillary services for the grid. Frequency regulation is an ideal service for PHEV because the duration of supply is short (order of minutes) and it is the highest priced ancillary service on the market offering greater financial returns for vehicle owners. Using Simulink a power system simulator modeling the IEEE 14 Bus System was combined with a model of PHEV charging and the controllers which facilitate vehicle-to-grid (V2G) regulation supply. The system includes a V2G controller for each vehicle which makes regulation supply decisions based on battery state, user preferences, and the recommended level of supply. A PHEV coordinator controller located higher in the system has access to reliable frequency measurements and can determine a suitable local automatic generation control (AGC) raise/lower signal for participating vehicles. A first step implementation of the V2G supply system where battery charging is modulated to provide regulation was developed. The system was simulated following a step change in loading using three scenarios: (1) Central generating units provide frequency regulation, (2) PHEV contribute to primary regulation analogous to generator speed governor control, and (3) PHEV contribute to primary and secondary regulation using an additional integral term in the PHEV control signal. In both cases the additional regulation provided by PHEV reduced the area control error (ACE) compared to the base case. Unique contributions resulting from this work include: (1) Studied PHEV energy systems and limitations on battery charging/discharging, (2) Reviewed standards for interconnection of distributed resources and electric vehicle charging [1], [2], (3) Explored strategies for distributed control of PHEV charging, (4) Developed controllers to accommodate PHEV regulation, and (5) Developed a simulator combining a power system model and PHEV/V2G components.

The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

PubMed Central

Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. PMID:27219341

The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

PubMed

Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

2016-07-12

To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

2013-12-01

Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few model regions (including Africa and North America). These WSIs were used to estimate revised CFs for freshwater consumption to be used in LCAs. Future work will extend results to a global scale. References 1. Brown, A., Matlock, M., 2011. A Review of Water Scarcity Indices and Methodologies, University of Kansas, The Sustainability Consortium, White Paper #106. 2. Pfister, S., Koehler, A., Hellweg, S., 2009. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Freshwater Consumption in LCA. Environ. Sci. Technol. 43 (11), 4098-4104. 3. Alcamo, J.; Doll, P.; Henrichs, T.; Kaspar, F.; Lehner, B.; Rosch, T.; Siebert, S. Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability Hydrol. Sci. J. 2003, 48 (3) 317- 337. 4. Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S., Allen, P.M., 1999. Continental scale simulation of the hydrologic balance. J. Am.Water Resour. Assoc. 35 (5), 1037-1051. 5. Pfister, S., Bayer, P., Koehler, A., Hellweg, S., 2011. Environmental Impacts of Water Use in Global Crop Production: Hotspots and Trade-Offs with Land Use. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45 (13), 5761- 5768.

Fast Learning for Immersive Engagement in Energy Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, Brian W; Bugbee, Bruce; Gruchalla, Kenny M

The fast computation which is critical for immersive engagement with and learning from energy simulations would be furthered by developing a general method for creating rapidly computed simplified versions of NREL's computation-intensive energy simulations. Created using machine learning techniques, these 'reduced form' simulations can provide statistically sound estimates of the results of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost with response times - typically less than one minute of wall-clock time - suitable for real-time human-in-the-loop design and analysis. Additionally, uncertainty quantification techniques can document the accuracy of the approximate models and their domain of validity. Approximationmore » methods are applicable to a wide range of computational models, including supply-chain models, electric power grid simulations, and building models. These reduced-form representations cannot replace or re-implement existing simulations, but instead supplement them by enabling rapid scenario design and quality assurance for large sets of simulations. We present an overview of the framework and methods we have implemented for developing these reduced-form representations.« less

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such functionality is not typically included in other water DSS. Based on the resulting water resources allocation, the model calculates operating and water scarcity costs caused by supply deficits based on economic demand functions for each demand node. The optimization model allocates the available resource over time based on economic criteria (net benefits from demand curves and cost functions), minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. This approach provides solutions that optimize the economic efficiency (as total net benefit) in water resources management over the optimization period. Both models must be used together in water resource planning and management. The optimization model provides an initial insight on economically efficient solutions, from which different operating rules can be further developed and tested using the simulation model. The hydro-economic simulation model allows assessing economic impacts of alternative policies or operating criteria, avoiding the perfect foresight issues associated with the optimization. The tools have been applied to the Jucar river basin (Spain) in order to assess the economic results corresponding to the current modus operandi of the system and compare them with the solution from the optimization that maximizes economic efficiency. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536) and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

A simple dynamic engine model for use in a real-time aircraft simulation with thrust vectoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Steven A.

1990-01-01

A simple dynamic engine model was developed at the NASA Ames Research Center, Dryden Flight Research Facility, for use in thrust vectoring control law development and real-time aircraft simulation. The simple dynamic engine model of the F404-GE-400 engine (General Electric, Lynn, Massachusetts) operates within the aircraft simulator. It was developed using tabular data generated from a complete nonlinear dynamic engine model supplied by the manufacturer. Engine dynamics were simulated using a throttle rate limiter and low-pass filter. Included is a description of a method to account for axial thrust loss resulting from thrust vectoring. In addition, the development of the simple dynamic engine model and its incorporation into the F-18 high alpha research vehicle (HARV) thrust vectoring simulation. The simple dynamic engine model was evaluated at Mach 0.2, 35,000 ft altitude and at Mach 0.7, 35,000 ft altitude. The simple dynamic engine model is within 3 percent of the steady state response, and within 25 percent of the transient response of the complete nonlinear dynamic engine model.

Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

2017-04-01

Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular flood scenario to perform adaptive responses (e.g. pre-emptive relocation of equipment), as well as estimate the likely duration of any disruption to port and supply chain operation. High resolution numerical inundation modelling, coupled to accurate storm surge forecasting and an agent based port operation model, thus has the potential to significantly reduce damage and disruption costs associated with storm surge impacts on port infrastructure and systems.

Biomass Supply Chain and Conversion Economics of Cellulosic Ethanol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, Ronalds W.

2011-12-01

Cellulosic biomass is a potential and competitive source for bioenergy production, reasons for such acclamation include: biomass is one the few energy sources that can actually be utilized to produce several types of energy (motor fuel, electricity, heat) and cellulosic biomass is renewable and relatively found everywhere. Despite these positive advantages, issues regarding cellulosic biomass availability, supply chain, conversion process and economics need a more comprehensive understanding in order to identify the near short term routes in biomass to bioenergy production. Cellulosic biomass accounts for around 35% to 45% of cost share in cellulosic ethanol production, in addition, different feedstock have very different production rate, (dry ton/acre/year), availability across the year, and chemical composition that affect process yield and conversion costs as well. In the other hand, existing and brand new conversion technologies for cellulosic ethanol production offer different advantages, risks and financial returns. Ethanol yield, financial returns, delivered cost and supply chain logistic for combinations of feedstock and conversion technology are investigated in six studies. In the first study, biomass productivity, supply chain and delivered cost of fast growing Eucalyptus is simulated in economic and supply chain models to supply a hypothetic ethanol biorefinery. Finding suggests that Eucalyptus can be a potential hardwood grown specifically for energy. Delivered cost is highly sensitive to biomass productivity, percentage of covered area. Evaluated at different financial expectations, delivered cost can be competitive compared to current forest feedstock supply. In the second study, Eucalyptus biomass conversion into cellulosic ethanol is simulated in the dilute acid pretreatment, analysis of conversion costs, cost share, CAPEX and ethanol yield are examined. In the third study, biomass supply and delivered cost of loblolly pine is simulated in economic and supply chain models specifically for biomass to bioenergy production. The study suggest that this species can be profitably managed for biomass production with rotation length of 11 to 12 years and with a stand tree density of 1,200 trees per acre. Optimum rotation length is greatly affected by seedlings costs and biomass productivity. In the fourth study, a evaluation of seven different feedstocks (loblolly pine, natural mixed hardwood, Eucalyptus, switchgrass, miscanthus, corn stover and sweet sorghum) is made in terms of supply chain, biomass delivered costs, dollar per ton of carbohydrate and dollar per million BTU delivered to a biorefinery. Forest feedstocks present better advantages in terms of a well established supply chain, year round supply and no need for biomass storage. In the same context biomass delivered costs, as well as cost to delivered one ton of carbohydrate and one million BTU is lower in forest feedstocks. In the fifth study, conversion costs, profitability and sensitivity analysis for a novel pretreatment process, green liquor, are modeled for ethanol production with loblolly pine, natural mixed hardwood and Eucalyptus as feedstocks, evaluated in two investment scenarios: green field and repurposing of an old kraft pulp mill. Better financial returns are perceived in the natural hardwood - repurposing scenario, mainly due to lower CAPEX and lower enzyme charge and cost. In the sixth study, conversion cost, CAPEX, ethanol yield and profitability for the thermochemical process (indirect gasification and production of mixed alcohol) is simulated for loblolly pine, natural hardwood, eucalyptus, corn stover and switchgrass. Higher ethanol yield with forest feedstock (due to higher content of %C and %H) result in better economic performance, when compare to agriculture biomass. This research indicates that forest feedstock outperform agriculture biomass in terms of delivered costs, supply chain, ethanol yield and process profitability. Loblolly pine seems to be more suitable for thermochemical processes, while hardwood suit better for biochemical conversion (based on the technologies studied).

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby; Liu, Lu; Huang, Maoyi; Li, Hong-Yi; Tesfa, Teklu

2017-05-01

Realistic representations of sectoral water withdrawals and consumptive demands and their allocation to surface and groundwater sources are important for improving modeling of the integrated water cycle. To inform future model development, we enhance the representation of water management in a regional Earth system (ES) model with a spatially distributed allocation of sectoral water demands simulated by a regional integrated assessment (IA) model to surface and groundwater systems. The integrated modeling framework (IA-ES) is evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow and sectoral supply deficit in major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S, which differ from ES studies looking at water storage variations. Decreases in historical supply deficit are used as metrics to evaluate IA-ES model improvement in representating the complex sectoral human activities for assessing future adaptation and mitigation strategies. We also assess the spatial changes in both regulated flow and unmet demands, for irrigation and nonirrigation sectors, resulting from the individual and combined additions of groundwater and return flow modules. Results show that groundwater use has a pronounced regional and sectoral effect by reducing water supply deficit. The effects of sectoral return flow exhibit a clear east-west contrast in the hydrologic patterns, so the return flow component combined with the IA sectoral demands is a major driver for spatial redistribution of water resources and water deficits in the US. Our analysis highlights the need for spatially distributed sectoral representation of water management to capture the regional differences in interbasin redistribution of water resources and deficits.

MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.

This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report hasmore » been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.« less

NetFlow Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corbet Jr., Thomas F; Beyeler, Walter E; Vanwestrienen, Dirk

NetFlow Dynamics is a web-accessible analysis environment for simulating dynamic flows of materials on model networks. Performing a simulation requires both the NetFlow Dynamics application and a network model which is a description of the structure of the nodes and edges of a network including the flow capacity of each edge and the storage capacity of each node, and the sources and sinks of the material flowing on the network. NetFlow Dynamics consists of databases for storing network models, algorithms to calculate flows on networks, and a GIS-based graphical interface for performing simulations and viewing simulation results. Simulated flows aremore » dynamic in the sense that flows on each edge of the network and inventories at each node change with time and can be out of equilibrium with boundary conditions. Any number of network models could be simulated using Net Flow Dynamics. To date, the models simulated have been models of petroleum infrastructure. The main model has been the National Transportation Fuels Model (NTFM), a network of U.S. oil fields, transmission pipelines, rail lines, refineries, tank farms, and distribution terminals. NetFlow Dynamics supports two different flow algorithms, the Gradient Flow algorithm and the Inventory Control algorithm, that were developed specifically for the NetFlow Dynamics application. The intent is to add additional algorithms in the future as needed. The ability to select from multiple algorithms is desirable because a single algorithm never covers all analysis needs. The current algorithms use a demand-driven capacity-constrained formulation which means that the algorithms strive to use all available capacity and stored inventory to meet desired flows to sinks, subject to the capacity constraints of each network component. The current flow algorithms are best suited for problems in which a material flows on a capacity-constrained network representing a supply chain in which the material supplied can be stored at each node of the network. In the petroleum models, the flowing materials are crude oil and refined products that can be stored at tank farms, refineries, or terminals (i.e. the nodes of the network). Examples of other network models that could be simulated are currency flowing in a financial network, agricultural products moving to market, or natural gas flowing on a pipeline network.« less

Future Availability of Water Supply from Karstic Springs under Probable Climate Change. The case of Aravissos, Central Macedonia, Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vafeiadis, M.; Spachos, Th.; Zampetoglou, K.; Soupilas, Th.

2012-04-01

The test site of Aravissos is located at 70 Km to the West (W-NW) of Thessaloniki at the south banks of mount Païko, in the north part of Central Macedonia The karstic Aravissos springs supply 40% of total volume needed for the water supply of Thessaloniki, Greece. As the water is of excellent quality, it is feed directly in the distribution network without any previous treatment. The availability of this source is therefore of high importance for the sustainable water supply of this area with almost 1000000 inhabitants. The water system of Aravissos is developed in a karstic limestone with an age of about Late Cretaceous that covers almost the entire western part of the big-anticline of Païko Mountain. The climate in this area and the water consumption area, Thessaloniki, is a typical Mediterranean climate with mild and humid winters and hot and dry summers. The total annual number of rainy days is around 110. The production of the Aravissos springs depends mostly from the annual precipitations. As the feeding catchement and the karst aquifer are not well defined, a practical empirical balance model, that contains only well known relevant terms, is applied for the simulation of the operation of the springs under normal water extraction for water supply in present time. The estimation of future weather conditions are based on GCM and RCM simulation data and the extension of trend lines of the actual data. The future evolution of the availability of adequate water quantities from the springs is finally estimated from the balance model and the simulated future climatic data. This study has been realised within the project CC-WaterS, funded by the SEE program of the European Regional Development Fund (http://www.ccwaters.eu/).

Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction In many countries, health-care labour markets are constantly being challenged by an alternation of shortage and oversupply. Avoiding these cyclic variations is a major challenge. In the Netherlands, a workforce planning model has been used in health care for ten years. Case description Since 1970, the Dutch government has explored different approaches to determine the inflow in medical schools. In 2000, a simulation model for health workforce planning was developed to estimate the required and available capacity of health professionals in the Netherlands. In this paper, this model is explained, using the Dutch general practitioners as an example. After the different steps in the model are clarified, it is shown how elements can be added to arrive at different versions of the model, or ‘scenarios’. A comparison is made of the results of different scenarios for different years. In addition, the subsequent stakeholder decision-making process is considered. Discussion and evaluation Discussion of this paper shows that workforce planning in the Netherlands is a complex modelling task, which is sensitive to different developments influencing the balance between supply and demand. It seems plausible that workforce planning has resulted in a balance between supply and demand of general practitioners. Still, it remains important that the modelling process is accepted by the different stakeholders. Besides calculating the balance between supply and demand, there needs to be an agreement between the stakeholders to implement the advised training inflow. The Dutch simulation model was evaluated using six criteria to be met by models suitable for policy objectives. This model meets these criteria, as it is a comprehensive and parsimonious model that can include all relevant factors. Conclusion Over the last decade, health workforce planning in the Netherlands has become an accepted instrument for calculating the required supply of health professionals on a regular basis. One of the strengths of the Dutch model is that it can be used for different types of medical and allied health professionals. A weakness is that the model is not yet fully capable of including substitutions between different medical professions to plan from a skill-mix perspective. Several improvements remain possible. PMID:22888974

A non-linear model of economic production processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

Influence of government controls over the currency exchange rate in the evolution of Hurst's exponent: An autonomous agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chávez Muñoz, Pablo; Fernandes da Silva, Marcus; Vivas Miranda, José; Claro, Francisco; Gomez Diniz, Raimundo

2007-12-01

We have studied the performance of the Hurst's index associated with the currency exchange rate in Brazil and Chile. It is shown that this index maps the degree of government control in the exchange rate. A model of supply and demand based in an autonomous agent is proposed, that simulates a virtual market of sale and purchase, where buyer or seller are forced to negotiate through an intermediary. According to this model, the average of the price of daily transactions correspond to the theoretical balance proposed by the law of supply and demand. The influence of an added tendency factor is also analyzed.

Stand-Damage Model with Java (Version 3.0)

Treesearch

George Racin; J.J. Colbert

2004-01-01

NOTE: Instructions for ordering the cd-rom with the software are included on the front cover of the linked publication. The Stand-Damage Model with Java is a distance-independent tree-growth simulator. The model follows the life of a forest stand represented by species and diameter-class widths. The user supplies the initial state of the stand along with management...

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

14 CFR 1216.304 - Categorical exclusions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... funds. (iv) Preparation of documents, including design and feasibility studies, analytical supply and... sampling, cultural resources surveys, biological surveys, geologic surveys, modeling or simulations, and... Indian tribe, State, and/or local law or requirements. (3) Research and Development (R&D) Activities...

Effect of gaseous and solid simulated jet plumes on a 040A space shuttle launch configuration at Mach numbers from 1.6 to 2.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lanfranco, M. J.; Sparks, V. W.; Kavanaugh, A. T.

1973-01-01

An experimental investigation was conducted in a 9- by 7-foot supersonic wind tunnel to determine the effect of plume-induced flow separation and aspiration effects due to operation of both the orbiter and the solid rocket motors on a 0.019-scale model of the launch configuration of the space shuttle vehicle. Longitudinal and lateral-directional stability data were obtained at Mach numbers of 1.6, 2.0, and 2.2 with and without the engines operating. The plumes exiting from the engines were simulated by a cold gas jet supplied by an auxiliary 200 atmosphere air supply system, and by solid body plume simulators. Comparisons of the aerodynamic effects produced by these two simulation procedures are presented. The data indicate that the parameters most significantly affected by the jet plumes are the pitching moment, the elevon control effectiveness, the axial force, and the orbiter wing loads.

Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model.

PubMed

Fuchs, Johann; Söhnlein, Doris; Weber, Brigitte; Weber, Enzo

2018-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.

Simulating water markets with transaction costs

PubMed Central

Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J

2014-01-01

This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. Key Points Transaction tracking hydro-economic optimization models simulate water markets Proposed model formulation incorporates transaction costs and trading behavior Water markets benefit users with the most restricted water access PMID:25598558

Comparison of SVAT models for simulating and optimizing deficit irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid countries under climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloss, Sebastian; Schuetze, Niels; Schmitz, Gerd H.

2010-05-01

The strong competition for fresh water in order to fulfill the increased demand for food worldwide has led to a renewed interest in techniques to improve water use efficiency (WUE) such as controlled deficit irrigation. Furthermore, as the implementation of crop models into complex decision support systems becomes more and more common, it is imperative to reliably predict the WUE as ratio of water consumption and yield. The objective of this paper is the assessment of the problems the crop models - such as FAO-33, DAISY, and APSIM in this study - face when maximizing the WUE. We applied these crop models for calculating the risk in yield reduction in view of different sources of uncertainty (e.g. climate) employing a stochastic framework for decision support for the planning of water supply in irrigation. The stochastic framework consists of: (i) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change; (ii) a new tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply; and (iii) the above mentioned models for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner. The results present stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops which can be used as basic tools for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield. Case studies from India, Oman, Malawi, and France are presented to assess the differences in modeling water stress and yield response for the different crop models.

Simulating water markets with transaction costs.

PubMed

Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J

2014-06-01

This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. Transaction tracking hydro-economic optimization models simulate water marketsProposed model formulation incorporates transaction costs and trading behaviorWater markets benefit users with the most restricted water access.

Numerical Simulation of Magma Effects on Hydrothermal Venting at Ultra-Slow Spreading Southwest Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, Hong; Niu, Xiongwei; Ruan, Aiguo; Li, Jiabiao; Meng, Lin

2017-04-01

Finite element method is used to numerically simulate oceanic crust thermal dynamics in order to understand the hydrothermal venting mechanism at ultra-slow spreading ridge, whether is the ancient magma chamber still living and supplying hot magma for vents or have surrounding hotspots been affecting on the ridge continually with melting and hot magma. Two models are simulated, one is a horizontal layered oceanic crust model and the other is a model derived from wide angle seismic experiment of OBS at the ultra-slow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge (50°E, Zhao et al., 2013; Li et al., 2015; Niu et al., 2015). For the former two cases are simulated: without magma from upper mantel or with continuous magma supply, and for the latter supposing magma supply occurs only once in short period. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Without melt magma supply at the oceanic crust bottom, a magma chamber can live only thousands ten thousand years. According to the simulated results in this case, the magma chamber revealed by seismic data at the mid-east shallow section of the Southwest Indian Ridge could only last 0.8Ma, the present hydrothermal venting is impossible to be the caused by the magma activity occurred during 8-11Ma (Sauter et al., 2009). (2) The magma chamber can live long time with continuous hot magma supply beneath the oceanic crust due to the melting effects of surrounding ridge hotspots, and would result hydrothermal venting with some tectonic structures condition such as detachment faults. We suggest that the present hydrothermal activities at the mid-east shallow section of the Southwest Indian Ridge are the results of melting effects or magma supply from surrounding hotspots. This research was granted by the National Basic Research program of China (grant 2012CB417301) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 41176046, 91228205). References Zhao, M., Qiu, X., Li, J., et al., 2013. Three-dimensional seismic structure of the Dragon Flag oceanic core complex at the ultraslow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge (49° 39' E). Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 14(10), 4544-4563. Li, J., Jian, H., Chen, Y. J., et al., 2015. Seismic observation of an extremely magmatic accretion at the ultraslow spreading southwest indian ridge. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(8), 2656-2663. Niu, X., Ruan, A., Li, J., et al., 2015. Along-axis variation in crustal thickness at the ultraslow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge (50° E) from a wide-angle seismic experiment. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 16(2), 468-485. Sauter, D., Cannat, M., Meyzen, C., et al., 2009. Propagation of a melting anomaly along the ultraslow southwest indian ridge between 46°e and 52°20'e: interaction with the, crozet hotspot?. Geophysical Journal International, 179(2), 687-699.

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation expansion; and change in energy prices. Such risk-based analysis demonstrates relative reduction/increase of risk associated with management and policy decisions and allow decision makers to explore the relative importance of policy versus natural water supply change in a water resources system.

Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Move-Out Operations, Combat Training and Wind Erosion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.

2006-09-29

The potential for air-quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss was investigated. This report details efforts by the staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Fort Bliss Directorate of Environment in this investigation. Dust emission and dispersion from typical activities, including move outs and combat training, occurring on the installation were simulated using the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN. Major assumptions associated with designing specific modeling scenarios are summarized, and results from the simulations are presented.

Simulated effects of groundwater withdrawals from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and Piney Point aquifer, Maurice and Cohansey River Basins, Cumberland County and vicinity, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gordon, Alison D.; Buxton, Debra E.

2018-05-10

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, conducted a study to simulate the effects of withdrawals from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system on streamflow and groundwater flow and from the Piney Point aquifer on water levels in the Cohansey and Maurice River Basins in Cumberland County and surrounding areas. The aquifer system consists of gravel, sand, silt, and clay sediments of the Cohansey Sand and Kirkwood Formation that dip and thicken to the southeast. The aquifer system is generally an unconfined aquifer, but semi-confined and confined conditions exist within the Cumberland County study area. The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system is present throughout Cumberland County and is the principal source of groundwater for public, domestic, agricultural-irrigation, industrial, and commercial water uses. In 2008, reported groundwater withdrawals from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the study area totaled about 21,700 million gallons—about 36 percent for public supply; about 49 percent for agricultural irrigation; and about 15 percent for industrial, commercial, mining by sand and gravel companies, and non-agricultural irrigation uses. A transient numerical groundwater-flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system was developed and calibrated by incorporating monthly recharge, base-flow estimates, water-level data, surface-water diversions and discharges, and groundwater withdrawals from 1998 to 2008.The groundwater-flow model was used to simulate five withdrawal scenarios to observe the effects of additional groundwater withdrawals on the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and streams. These scenarios include (1) average 1998 to 2008 monthly groundwater withdrawals (baseline scenario); (2) monthly full-allocation groundwater withdrawals, but agricultural-irrigation withdrawals were decreased for October through March; (3) monthly full-allocation groundwater withdrawals; (4) estimated monthly groundwater demand in 2050 at municipal public-supply wells; and (5) estimated 2050 monthly groundwater demand at municipal public-supply wells for which pumping of selected municipal public-supply wells was moved to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. The results of the baseline scenario (scenario 1) were used for comparison with the results of scenarios 2‒5.The results of scenarios 2‒3 indicate that simulated water-level declines occurred in the Cohansey River Basin when full-allocation groundwater withdrawals were incorporated (scenarios 2 and 3). In scenarios 2 and 3, full-allocation withdrawals in the Cohansey River Basin were approximately 266 and 407 percent greater, respectively, than in the baseline scenario. In scenario 2, the largest decline in simulated water levels was more than 67 ft in June and September of scenario year 11, whereas in scenario 3, simulated water levels declined as much as 90 ft in June and more than 100 ft in September of scenario year 11. These simulated declines occurred in a small area around one pumped well in the Cohansey River Basin. The average decline in simulated water levels for this basin was less than 10 ft for scenario 2 and less than 20 ft for scenario 3. In scenario 2, the Menantico Creek subbasin in the Maurice River Basin had a decrease in base flow during about 29 percent of the 11-year simulation period, and in scenario 3, the decrease occurred during about 71 percent of the 11-year simulation period. In scenario 3, base flow in the Cohansey River Basin was less than the 7-day 10-year low flow in all months of simulation years 7 through 11. Several agricultural-irrigation wells and a number of public-supply wells are within the Cohansey River Basin and the Menantico Creek subbasin.Three additional scenarios were simulated to evaluate the possible use of the Piney Point aquifer in the Cumberland County study area using the New Jersey Regional Aquifer-System Analysis model, which incorporates all aquifers in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Various groundwater-withdrawal rates were input to the steady-state New Jersey Regional Aquifer-System Analysis model to assess changes in water levels in the Piney Point aquifer.The three steady-state scenarios for the New Jersey Regional Aquifer-System Analysis model included the annual average 2004‒08 withdrawals for each well in the groundwater-flow model. The results of scenario 6 were used for comparison to the results of scenarios 7 and 8. The groundwater withdrawals in scenario 7 are the same as in scenario 6, except withdrawals from 50 municipal public-supply wells in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system that are within the boundary of the Cumberland County study area were increased to estimated 2050 withdrawals. In addition, a municipal public-supply well from nine municipalities in the study area pumping from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system was assigned the estimated 2050 demand for the Piney Point aquifer instead. The groundwater withdrawals in scenario 8 are the same as in scenario 6, except withdrawals from the municipal public-supply wells in the municipalities of Vineland City, Millville City, and Monroe Township were assigned the full-allocation withdrawals. In addition, the full-allocation withdrawals pumped from one existing municipal public-supply well in each of the three municipalities pumping from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system were assigned to pump from the Piney Point aquifer instead. The results of the scenarios indicate that the Piney Point aquifer could provide a limited option for public supply in the southeastern part of Cumberland County with constraints on withdrawal rates and the number and proximity of wells additional to those already pumping from the Piney Point aquifer in Bridgeton City and Buena Borough. The transmissivity of the Piney Point aquifer in the Cumberland County study area is about an order of magnitude lower than the average transmissivity of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the study area. This difference in transmissivity may result in deeper cones of depression around the pumped wells in the Piney Point aquifer.

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce

PubMed Central

Storm, Michael V.; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M.; Donofrio, Peter D.; Henderson, Victor W.; Kaminski, Henry J.; Stevens, James C.; Vidic, Thomas R.

2013-01-01

Objective: This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. Methods: A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. Results: The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Conclusions: In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future. PMID:23596071

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

PubMed

Dall, Timothy M; Storm, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M; Donofrio, Peter D; Henderson, Victor W; Kaminski, Henry J; Stevens, James C; Vidic, Thomas R

2013-07-30

This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

Some Aspects of Advanced Tokamak Modeling in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, H. E.; Petty, C. C.; Murakami, M.; Kinsey, J. E.

2000-10-01

We extend previous work(M. Murakami, et al., General Atomics Report GA-A23310 (1999).) done on time dependent DIII-D advanced tokamak simulations by introducing theoretical confinement models rather than relying on power balance derived transport coefficients. We explore using NBCD and off axis ECCD together with a self-consistent aligned bootstrap current, driven by the internal transport barrier dynamics generated with the GLF23 confinement model, to shape the hollow current profile and to maintain MHD stable conditions. Our theoretical modeling approach uses measured DIII-D initial conditions to start off the simulations in a smooth consistent manner. This mitigates the troublesome long lived perturbations in the ohmic current profile that is normally caused by inconsistent initial data. To achieve this goal our simulation uses a sequence of time dependent eqdsks generated autonomously by the EFIT MHD equilibrium code in analyzing experimental data to supply the history for the simulation.

User's manual for a parameter identification technique. [with options for model simulation for fixed input forcing functions and identification from wind tunnel and flight measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanning, G.

1975-01-01

A digital computer program written in FORTRAN is presented that implements the system identification theory for deterministic systems using input-output measurements. The user supplies programs simulating the mathematical model of the physical plant whose parameters are to be identified. The user may choose any one of three options. The first option allows for a complete model simulation for fixed input forcing functions. The second option identifies up to 36 parameters of the model from wind tunnel or flight measurements. The third option performs a sensitivity analysis for up to 36 parameters. The use of each option is illustrated with an example using input-output measurements for a helicopter rotor tested in a wind tunnel.

Energy management that generates terrain following versus apex-preserving hopping in man and machine.

PubMed

Kalveram, Karl Theodor; Haeufle, Daniel F B; Seyfarth, André; Grimmer, Sten

2012-01-01

While hopping, 12 subjects experienced a sudden step down of 5 or 10 cm. Results revealed that the hopping style was "terrain following". It means that the subjects pursued to keep the distance between maximum hopping height (apex) and ground profile constant. The spring-loaded inverse pendulum (SLIP) model, however, which is currently considered as template for stable legged locomotion would predict apex-preserving hopping, by which the absolute maximal hopping height is kept constant regardless of changes of the ground level. To get more insight into the physics of hopping, we outlined two concepts of energy management: "constant energy supply", by which in each bounce--regardless of perturbations--the same amount of mechanical energy is injected, and "lost energy supply", by which the mechanical energy that is going to be dissipated in the current cycle is assessed and replenished. When tested by simulations and on a robot testbed capable of hopping, constant energy supply generated stable and robust terrain following hopping, whereas lost energy supply led to something like apex-preserving hopping, which, however, lacks stability as well as robustness. Comparing simulated and machine hopping with human hopping suggests that constant energy supply has a good chance to be used by humans to generate hopping.

Short-term Operation of Multi-purpose Reservoir using Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, Gokcen; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Sensoy, Aynur; Arda Sorman, Ali

2017-04-01

Operation of water structures especially with conflicting water supply and flood mitigation objectives is under more stress attributed to growing water demand and changing hydro-climatic conditions. Model Predictive Control (MPC) based optimal control solutions has been successfully applied to different water resources applications. In this study, Feedback Control (FBC) and MPC get combined and an improved joint optimization-simulation operating scheme is proposed. Water supply and flood control objectives are fulfilled by incorporating the long term water supply objectives into a time-dependent variable guide curve policy whereas the extreme floods are attenuated by means of short-term optimization based on MPC. A final experiment is carried out to assess the lead time performance and reliability of forecasts in a hindcasting experiment with imperfect, perturbed forecasts. The framework is tested in Yuvacık Dam reservoir where the main water supply reservoir of Kocaeli City in the northwestern part of Turkey (the Marmara region) and it requires a challenging gate operation due to restricted downstream flow conditions.

Simulation study of the discharge characteristics of silos with cohesive particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hund, David; Weis, Dominik; Hesse, Robert; Antonyuk, Sergiy

2017-06-01

In many industrial applications the silo for bulk materials is an important part of an overall process. Silos are used for instance to buffer intermediate products to ensure a continuous supply for the next process step. This study deals with the discharging behaviour of silos containing cohesive bulk solids with particle sizes in the range of 100-500 μm. In this contribution the TOMAS [1,2] model developed for stationary and non-stationary discharging of a convergent hopper is verified with experiments and simulations using the Discrete Element Method. Moreover the influence of the cohesion of the bulk solids on the discharge behaviour is analysed by the simulation. The simulation results showed a qualitative agreement with the analytical model of TOMAS.

14 CFR § 1216.304 - Categorical exclusions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... funds. (iv) Preparation of documents, including design and feasibility studies, analytical supply and... sampling, cultural resources surveys, biological surveys, geologic surveys, modeling or simulations, and... Indian tribe, State, and/or local law or requirements. (3) Research and Development (R&D) Activities...

Autonomous Decentralized Control of Supply and Demand by Inverter Based Distributed Generations in Isolated Microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiki, Akira; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Baba, Jyunpei; Takano, Tomihiro; Gouda, Takahiro; Izui, Yoshio

Recently, because of the environmental burden mitigation, energy conservations, energy security, and cost reductions, distributed generations are attracting our strong attention. These distributed generations (DGs) have been already installed to the distribution system, and much more DGs will be expected to be connected in the future. On the other hand, a new concept called “Microgrid” which is a small power supply network consisting of only DGs was proposed and some prototype projects are ongoing in Japan. The purpose of this paper is to develop the three-phase instantaneous valued digital simulator of microgrid consisting of a lot of inverter based DGs and to develop a supply and demand control method in isolated microgrid. First, microgrid is modeled using MATLAB/SIMULINK. We develop models of three-phase instantaneous valued inverter type CVCF generator, PQ specified generator, PV specified generator, PQ specified load as storage battery, photovoltaic generation, fuel cell and inverter load respectively. Then we propose an autonomous decentralized control method of supply and demand in isolated microgrid where storage batteries, fuel cells, photovoltaic generations and loads are connected. It is proposed here that the system frequency is used as a means to control DG output. By changing the frequency of the storage battery due to unbalance of supply and demand, all inverter based DGs detect the frequency fluctuation and change their own outputs. Finally, a new frequency control method in autonomous decentralized control of supply and demand is proposed. Though the frequency is used to transmit the information on the supply and demand unbalance to DGs, after the frequency plays the role, the frequency finally has to return to a standard value. To return the frequency to the standard value, the characteristic curve of the fuel cell is shifted in parallel. This control is carried out corresponding to the fluctuation of the load. The simulation shows that the frequency can be controlled well and has been made clear the effectiveness of the frequency control system.

SIM Life: a new surgical simulation device using a human perfused cadaver.

PubMed

Faure, J P; Breque, C; Danion, J; Delpech, P O; Oriot, D; Richer, J P

2017-02-01

In primary and continuing medical education, simulation is becoming a mandatory technique. In surgery, simulation spreading is slowed down by the distance which exists between the devices currently available on the market and the reality, in particular anatomical, of an operating room. We propose a new model for surgical simulation with the use of cadavers in a circulation model mimicking pulse and artificial respiration available for both open and laparoscopic surgery. The model was a task trainer designed by four experts in our simulation laboratory combining plastic, electronic, and biologic material. The cost of supplies needed for the construction was evaluated. The model was used and tested over 24 months on 35 participants, of whom 20 were surveyed regarding the realism of the model. The model involved a cadaver, connected to a specific device that permits beating circulation and artificial respiration. The demonstration contributed to teaching small groups of up to four participants and was reproducible over 24 months of courses. Anatomic correlation, realism, and learning experience were highly rated by users CONCLUSION: This model for surgical simulation in both open and laparoscopic surgery was found to be realistic, available to assessed objectively performance in a pedagogic program.

A 1-D Simulation Analysis of the Development and Maintenance of the 2001 Red Tide of the Ichthyotoxic Dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-26

subsequent fish kills supplied additional organic nutrients for utilization by these opportunistic toxic algae. Both nutrient vectors represented organic non...ichthyotoxic levels, rapid decay of subsequent fish kills supplied additional organic nutrients for utilization by these opportunistic toxic algae. Both...HABSIM model (Fig. 2) a positive feedback of the recycled organic nutrients (DON and DOP) from decaying fish , killed by K. brevis. Note that dissolved

A decision support tool for sustainable planning of urban water systems: presenting the Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model.

PubMed

Willuweit, Lars; O'Sullivan, John J

2013-12-15

Population growth, urbanisation and climate change represent significant pressures on urban water resources, requiring water managers to consider a wider array of management options that account for economic, social and environmental factors. The Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model (DUWSiM) developed in this study links urban water balance concepts with the land use dynamics model MOLAND and the climate model LARS-WG, providing a platform for long term planning of urban water supply and water demand by analysing the effects of urbanisation scenarios and climatic changes on the urban water cycle. Based on potential urbanisation scenarios and their effects on a city's water cycle, DUWSiM provides the functionality for assessing the feasibility of centralised and decentralised water supply and water demand management options based on forecasted water demand, stormwater and wastewater generation, whole life cost and energy and potential for water recycling. DUWSiM has been tested using data from Dublin, the capital of Ireland, and it has been shown that the model is able to satisfactorily predict water demand and stormwater runoff. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrology of the Coastal Lowlands aquifer system in parts of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Angel; Whiteman, C.D.

1999-01-01

Existing data on water levels, water use, water quality, and aquifer properties were used to construct a multilayer digital model to simulate flow in the aquifer system. The report describes the geohydrologic framework of the aquifer system, and the development, calibration, and sensitivity analysis of the ground-water-flow model, but it is primarily focused on the results of the simulations that show the natural flow of ground water throughout the regional aquifer system and the changes from the natural flow caused by development of ground-water supplies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, Elaine G.; Barnard, James C.; Rutz, Frederick C.

The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating on and between the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss and White Sands Missile Range was investigated. This report details efforts by the staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Fort Bliss Directorate of Environment in this investigation. Dust emission and dispersion from typical move-out activities occurring on the installations were simulated using the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN. Major assumptions associated with designing the modeling scenarios are summarized and results of simulations conducted under these assumptions are presented for four representative meteorological periods.

Modeling the effect of topical oxygen therapy on wound healing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agyingi, Ephraim; Ross, David; Maggelakis, Sophia

2011-11-01

Oxygen supply is a critical element for the healing of wounds. Clinical investigations have shown that topical oxygen therapy (TOT) increases the healing rate of wounds. The reason behind TOT increasing the healing rate of a wound remains unclear and hence current protocols are empirical. In this paper we present a mathematical model of wound healing that we use to simulate the application of TOT in the treatment of cutaneous wounds. At the core of our model is an account of the initiation of angiogenesis by macrophage-derived growth factors. The model is expressed as a system of reaction-diffusion equations. We present results of simulations for a version of the model with one spatial dimension.

Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade.

PubMed

Schmit, T M; Kaiser, H M

2006-12-01

Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are increased relative to 2005 levels, returns to the investment in generic advertising can be improved. Specifically, each additional real dollar invested in generic advertising for fluid milk and cheese products over the forecast period would result in an additional 5.61 dollars in producer revenues.

Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2014-01-01

Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

2017-12-01

The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and good agreement with agricultural onset methods, indicates the potential applicability of this method to a variety of meteorological and climate impact studies.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system near the Defense Supply Center Philadelphia, and the Point Breeze Refinery, southern Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schreffler, Curtis L.

2001-01-01

Ground-water flow in the Potomac-Raritan- Magothy aquifer system (PRM) in south Philadelphia and adjacent southwestern New Jersey was simulated by use of a three-dimensional, seven-layer finite-difference numerical flow model. The simulation was run from 1900, which was prior to groundwater development, through 1995 with 21 stress periods. The focus of the modeling was on a smaller area of concern in south Philadelphia in the vicinity of the Defense Supply Center Philadelphia (DSCP) and the Point Breeze Refinery (PBR). In order to adequately simulate the ground-water flow system in the area of concern, a much larger area was modeled that included parts of New Jersey where significant ground-water withdrawals, which affect water levels in southern Philadelphia, had occurred in the past. At issue in the area of concern is a hydrocarbon plume of unknown origin and time of release.The ground-water-flow system was simulated to estimate past water-level altitudes in and near the area of concern and to determine the effect of the Packer Avenue sewer, which lies south of the DSCP, on the ground-water-flow system. Simulated water-level altitudes for the lower sand unit of the PRM on the DSCP prior to 1945 ranged from pre-development, unstressed altitudes to 3 feet below sea level. Simulated water-level altitudes for the lower sand unit ranged from 3 to 7 feet below sea level from 1946 to 1954, from 6 to 10 feet below sea level from 1955 to 1968, and from 9 to 11 feet below sea level from 1969 to 1978. The lowest simulated water-level altitude on the DSCP was 10.69 feet below sea level near the end of 1974. Model simulations indicate ground water was infiltrating the Packer Avenue sewer prior to approximately 1947 or 1948. Subsequent to that time, simulated ground-water-level altitudes were lower than the bottom of the sewer.

Evaluation of Inventory Reduction Strategies: Balad Air Base Case Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

produced by conducting individual simulations using a unique random seed generated by the default Anylogic © random number generator. The...develops an agent-based simulation model of the sustainment supply chain supporting Balad AB during its closure using the software AnyLogic ®. The...research. The goal of USAF Stockage Policy is to maximize customer support while minimizing inventory costs (DAF, 2011:1). USAF stocking decisions

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

An IT-enabled supply chain model: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannella, Salvatore; Framinan, Jose M.; Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana

2014-11-01

During the last decades, supply chain collaboration practices and the underlying enabling technologies have evolved from the classical electronic data interchange (EDI) approach to a web-based and radio frequency identification (RFID)-enabled collaboration. In this field, most of the literature has focused on the study of optimal parameters for reducing the total cost of suppliers, by adopting operational research (OR) techniques. Herein we are interested in showing that the considered information technology (IT)-enabled structure is resilient, that is, it works well across a reasonably broad range of parameter settings. By adopting a methodological approach based on system dynamics, we study a multi-tier collaborative supply chain. Results show that the IT-enabled supply chain improves operational performance and customer service level. Nonetheless, benefits for geographically dispersed networks are of minor entity.

Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

PubMed

Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

2013-05-01

To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

The dynamic simulation model of soybean in Central Java to support food self sufficiency: A supply chain perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oktyajati, Nancy; Hisjam, Muh.; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

Consider food become one of the basic human needs in order to survive so food sufficiency become very important. Food sufficiency of soybean commodity in Central Java still depends on imported soybean. Insufficiency of soybean because of there is much gap between local soybean productions and its demand. In the year 2016 the shortage of supply soybean commodity as much 68.79%. Soybean is an important and strategic commodity after rice and corn. The increasing consumption of soybean is related to increasing population, increasing incomes, changing of healthy life style. The aims of this study are to determine the soybean dynamic model based on supply chain perspective, define the proper price of local soybean to trigger increasing of local production, and to define the alternative solution to support food self sufficiency. This study will capture the real condition into dynamics model, then simulate a series of scenario into a computer program to obtain the best results. This study will be conducted the following first scenario with government intervention policy and second without government intervention policy. The best solution of the alternative can be used as government consideration for governmental policy. The results of the propose scenarios showed that self sufficiency on soybean can be achieved after the next 20 years by increasing planting area 4% and land productivity 1% per year.

Improving the Performance of Highly Constrained Water Resource Systems using Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms and RiverWare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Zagona, E. A.

2015-12-01

Instead of building new infrastructure to increase their supply reliability, water resource managers are often tasked with better management of current systems. The managers often have existing simulation models that aid their planning, and lack methods for efficiently generating and evaluating planning alternatives. This presentation discusses how multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) decision support can be used with the sophisticated water infrastructure model, RiverWare, in highly constrained water planning environments. We first discuss a study that performed a many-objective tradeoff analysis of water supply in the Tarrant Regional Water District (TRWD) in Texas. RiverWare is combined with the Borg MOEA to solve a seven objective problem that includes systemwide performance objectives and individual reservoir storage reliability. Decisions within the formulation balance supply in multiple reservoirs and control pumping between the eastern and western parts of the system. The RiverWare simulation model is forced by two stochastic hydrology scenarios to inform how management changes in wet versus dry conditions. The second part of the presentation suggests how a broader set of RiverWare-MOEA studies can inform tradeoffs in other systems, especially in political situations where multiple actors are in conflict over finite water resources. By incorporating quantitative representations of diverse parties' objectives during the search for solutions, MOEAs may provide support for negotiations and lead to more widely beneficial water management outcomes.

Perspectives: Using Results from HRSA's Health Workforce Simulation Model to Examine the Geography of Primary Care.

PubMed

Streeter, Robin A; Zangaro, George A; Chattopadhyay, Arpita

2017-02-01

Inform health planning and policy discussions by describing Health Resources and Services Administration's (HRSA's) Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM) and examining the HWSM's 2025 supply and demand projections for primary care physicians, nurse practitioners (NPs), and physician assistants (PAs). HRSA's recently published projections for primary care providers derive from an integrated microsimulation model that estimates health workforce supply and demand at national, regional, and state levels. Thirty-seven states are projected to have shortages of primary care physicians in 2025, and nine states are projected to have shortages of both primary care physicians and PAs. While no state is projected to have a 2025 shortage of primary care NPs, many states are expected to have only a small surplus. Primary care physician shortages are projected for all parts of the United States, while primary care PA shortages are generally confined to Midwestern and Southern states. No state is projected to have shortages of all three provider types. Projected shortages must be considered in the context of baseline assumptions regarding current supply, demand, provider-service ratios, and other factors. Still, these findings suggest geographies with possible primary care workforce shortages in 2025 and offer opportunities for targeting efforts to enhance workforce flexibility. © Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Research on Optimization of Pooling System and Its Application in Drug Supply Chain Based on Big Data Analysis

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Reform of drug procurement is being extensively implemented and expanded in China, especially in today's big data environment. However, the pattern of supply mode innovation lags behind procurement improvement. Problems in financial strain and supply break frequently occur, which affect the stability of drug supply. Drug Pooling System is proposed and applied in a few pilot cities to resolve these problems. From the perspective of supply chain, this study analyzes the process of setting important parameters and sets out the tasks of involved parties in a pooling system according to the issues identified in the pilot run. The approach is based on big data analysis and simulation using system dynamic theory and modeling of Vensim software to optimize system performance. This study proposes a theoretical framework to resolve problems and attempts to provide a valuable reference for future application of pooling systems. PMID:28293258

Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

4% Yield Increase (HH4), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 4% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

PubMed

Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

2016-01-01

Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent estimates by the USDA for historical US nutrition and find very good agreement for 21 of 23 nutrients, though sodium and dietary fiber will require further improvement.

Landscaping the structures of GAVI country vaccine supply chains and testing the effects of radical redesign.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Connor, Diana L; Wateska, Angela R; Norman, Bryan A; Rajgopal, Jayant; Cakouros, Brigid E; Chen, Sheng-I; Claypool, Erin G; Haidari, Leila A; Karir, Veena; Leonard, Jim; Mueller, Leslie E; Paul, Proma; Schmitz, Michelle M; Welling, Joel S; Weng, Yu-Ting; Brown, Shawn T

2015-08-26

Many of the world's vaccine supply chains do not adequately provide vaccines, prompting several questions: how are vaccine supply chains currently structured, are these structures closely tailored to individual countries, and should these supply chains be radically redesigned? We segmented the 57 GAVI-eligible countries' vaccine supply chains based on their structure/morphology, analyzed whether these segments correlated with differences in country characteristics, and then utilized HERMES to develop a detailed simulation model of three sample countries' supply chains and explore the cost and impact of various alternative structures. The majority of supply chains (34 of 57) consist of four levels, despite serving a wide diversity of geographical areas and population sizes. These four-level supply chains loosely fall into three clusters [(1) 18 countries relatively more bottom-heavy, i.e., many more storage locations lower in the supply chain, (2) seven with relatively more storage locations in both top and lower levels, and (3) nine comparatively more top-heavy] which do not correlate closely with any of the country characteristics considered. For all three cluster types, our HERMES modeling found that simplified systems (a central location shipping directly to immunization locations with a limited number of Hubs in between) resulted in lower operating costs. A standard four-tier design template may have been followed for most countries and raises the possibility that simpler and more tailored designs may be warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seventh symposium on systems analysis in forest resources; 1997 May 28-31; Traverse City, MI.

Treesearch

J. Michael Vasievich; Jeremy S. Fried; Larry A. Leefers

2000-01-01

This international symposium included presentations by representatives from government, academic, and private institutions. Topics covered management objectives; information systems: modeling, optimization, simulation and decision support techniques; spatial methods; timber supply; and economic and operational analyses.

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

2013-01-01

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft3/s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft3/s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft3/s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft3/s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

2013-11-01

An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River Basin sees an increasing sensitivity to changes in demand in future periods. It further shows that the supply deficit is six times as sensitive as the actual supply to changes in flow and demand. A spatial analysis of the supply deficit demonstrates vulnerabilities of urban areas located along mainstream with limited storage.

Winter wheat: A model for the simulation of growth and yield in winter wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, D. N.; Smika, D. E.; Black, A. L.; Willis, W. O.; Bauer, A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The basic ideas and constructs for a general physical/physiological process level winter wheat simulation model are documented. It is a materials balance model which calculates daily increments of photosynthate production and respiratory losses in the crop canopy. The partitioning of the resulting dry matter to the active growing tissues in the plant each day, transpiration and the uptake of nitrogen from the soil profile are simulated. It incorporates the RHIZOS model which simulates, in two dimensions, the movement of water, roots, and soluble nutrients through the soil profile. It records the time of initiation of each of the plant organs. These phenological events are calculated from temperature functions with delays resulting from physiological stress. Stress is defined mathematically as an imbalance in the metabolite supply; demand ratio. Physiological stress is also the basis for the calculation of rates of tiller and floret abortion. Thus, tillering and head differentiation are modeled as the resulants of the two processes, morphogenesis and abortion, which may be occurring simulaneously.

Automated chemical kinetic modeling via hybrid reactive molecular dynamics and quantum chemistry simulations.

PubMed

Döntgen, Malte; Schmalz, Felix; Kopp, Wassja A; Kröger, Leif C; Leonhard, Kai

2018-06-13

An automated scheme for obtaining chemical kinetic models from scratch using reactive molecular dynamics and quantum chemistry simulations is presented. This methodology combines the phase space sampling of reactive molecular dynamics with the thermochemistry and kinetics prediction capabilities of quantum mechanics. This scheme provides the NASA polynomial and modified Arrhenius equation parameters for all species and reactions that are observed during the simulation and supplies them in the ChemKin format. The ab initio level of theory for predictions is easily exchangeable and the presently used G3MP2 level of theory is found to reliably reproduce hydrogen and methane oxidation thermochemistry and kinetics data. Chemical kinetic models obtained with this approach are ready-to-use for, e.g., ignition delay time simulations, as shown for hydrogen combustion. The presented extension of the ChemTraYzer approach can be used as a basis for methodologically advancing chemical kinetic modeling schemes and as a black-box approach to generate chemical kinetic models.

Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes: from socio-hydrological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D.; Wei, X.; Li, H. Y.; Lin, M.; Tian, F.; Huang, Q.

2017-12-01

In the socio-hydrological system, the ecological functions and environmental services, which are chosen to maintain, are determined by the preference of the society, which is making the trade-off among the values of riparian vegetation, fish, river landscape, water supply, hydropower, navigation and so on. As the society develops, the preference of the value will change and the ecological functions and environmental services which are chosen to maintain will change. The aim of the study is to focus on revealing the feedback relationship of water supply, hydropower and environment and the dynamical feedback mechanism at macro-scale, and to establish socio-hydrological evolution model of the watershed based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes. The study will aim at the Han River in China, analyze the impact of the water supply and hydropower on the ecology, hydrology and other environment elements, and study the effect on the water supply and hydropower to ensure the ecological and environmental water of the different level. Water supply and ecology are usually competitive. In some reservoirs, hydropower and ecology are synergic relationship while they are competitive in some reservoirs. The study will analyze the multiple mechanisms to implement the dynamical feedbacks of environment to hydropower, set up the quantitative relationship description of the feedback mechanisms, recognize the dominant processes in the feedback relationships of hydropower and environment and then analyze the positive and negative feedbacks in the feedback networks. The socio-hydrological evolution model at the watershed scale will be built and applied to simulate the long-term evolution processes of the watershed of the current situation. Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment will be investigated.

Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

2011-01-01

We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

Simulation and optimization model for irrigation planning and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Sheng-Feng; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2003-10-01

A simulation and optimization model was developed and applied to an irrigated area in Delta, Utah to optimize the economic benefit, simulate the water demand, and search the related crop area percentages with specified water supply and planted area constraints. The user interface model begins with the weather generation submodel, which produces daily weather data, which is based on long-term monthly average and standard deviation data from Delta, Utah. To simulate the daily crop water demand and relative crop yield for seven crops in two command areas, the information provided by this submodel was applied to the on-farm irrigation scheduling submodel. Furthermore, to optimize the project benefit by searching for the best allocation of planted crop areas given the constraints of projected water supply, the results were employed in the genetic algorithm submodel. Optimal planning for the 394·6-ha area of the Delta irrigation project is projected to produce the maximum economic benefit. That is, projected profit equals US$113 826 and projected water demand equals 3·03 × 106 m3. Also, area percentages of crops within UCA#2 command area are 70·1%, 19% and 10·9% for alfalfa, barley and corn, respectively, and within UCA#4 command area are 41·5%, 38·9%, 14·4% and 5·2% for alfalfa, barley, corn and wheat, respectively. As this model can plan irrigation application depths and allocate crop areas for optimal economic benefit, it can thus be applied to many irrigation projects. Copyright

Atmospheric Test Models and Numerical Experiments for the Simulation of the Global Distributions of Weather Data Transponders III. Horizontal Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Molenkamp, C.R.; Grossman, A.

1999-12-20

A network of small balloon-borne transponders which gather very high resolution wind and temperature data for use by modern numerical weather predication models has been proposed to improve the reliability of long-range weather forecasts. The global distribution of an array of such transponders is simulated using LLNL's atmospheric parcel transport model (GRANTOUR) with winds supplied by two different general circulation models. An initial study used winds from CCM3 with a horizontal resolution of about 3 degrees in latitude and longitude, and a second study used winds from NOGAPS with a 0.75 degree horizontal resolution. Results from both simulations show thatmore » reasonable global coverage can be attained by releasing balloons from an appropriate set of launch sites.« less

Three stage trade credit policy in a three-layer supply chain-a production-inventory model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

2014-09-01

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal replenishment lot size of supplier and optimal production rate of manufacturer under three levels of trade credit policy for supplier-manufacturer-retailer supply chain. The supplier provides a fixed credit period to settle the accounts to the manufacturer, while the manufacturer gives a fixed credit period to settle the account to the retailer and the retailer, in turn, also offers a credit period to each of its customers to settle the accounts. We assume that the supplier supplies the raw material to the manufacturer and sends back the defective raw materials to the outside supplier after completion of inspection at one lot with a sales price. The system always produces good items in the model. Also, we consider the idle times of supplier and manufacturer. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the behaviour and application of the model with graphical simulation.

The Estuaries Contribution for Supplying Nutrients (N and P) in Jepara Using Numerical Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslukah, Lilik; Yulina Wulandari, Sri; Budi Prasetyawan, Indra

2018-02-01

Coastal water is dynamic area since it is influenced by both ocean and land. It has high primary productivity that determined fishing ground area. Increased supply of nutrients in coastal water is significantly influenced by seasons and the presence of the river estuaries carrying water masses from the mainland. This study focused on the rivers (Serang, Wiso, Grenjengan Mlonggo and Pasokan rivers) contributed nutrients supply spatially and temporally to Jepara water using numerical modeling. The results showed nutrients content of N (Nitrate) and P (Phosphate) from those rivers were 39.19 tons N/month and 2.26 tons P/month in June, 19.94 tons N/month and 1.96 tons P/month in August. From simulation modeling nutrient of N and P showed that the distribution pattern of N and P was larger during the neap tide than the spring tide. Furthermore, compared with the other rivers, Serang river was the highest nutrient supplier to Jepara water.

Effects of additional food in a delayed predator-prey model.

PubMed

Sahoo, Banshidhar; Poria, Swarup

2015-03-01

We examine the effects of supplying additional food to predator in a gestation delay induced predator-prey system with habitat complexity. Additional food works in favor of predator growth in our model. Presence of additional food reduces the predatory attack rate to prey in the model. Supplying additional food we can control predator population. Taking time delay as bifurcation parameter the stability of the coexisting equilibrium point is analyzed. Hopf bifurcation analysis is done with respect to time delay in presence of additional food. The direction of Hopf bifurcations and the stability of bifurcated periodic solutions are determined by applying the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. The qualitative dynamical behavior of the model is simulated using experimental parameter values. It is observed that fluctuations of the population size can be controlled either by supplying additional food suitably or by increasing the degree of habitat complexity. It is pointed out that Hopf bifurcation occurs in the system when the delay crosses some critical value. This critical value of delay strongly depends on quality and quantity of supplied additional food. Therefore, the variation of predator population significantly effects the dynamics of the model. Model results are compared with experimental results and biological implications of the analytical findings are discussed in the conclusion section. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geohydrology and simulations of ground-water flow at Verona well field, Battle Creek, Michigan, 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, E.A.; Grannemann, N.G.

1997-01-01

Public water supply for the city of Battle Creek, Mich. is withdrawn from the Marshall Sandstone through wells at the Verona well field. Analysis of borehole acoustic televiewer, gamma, and single-point-resistance logs from wells in Bailey Park, near the well field, indicates 12 fracture zones in the Marshall Sandstone. Further interpretation of flow-meter and temperature logs from the same wells indicates that the fracture zones are locally interconnected but appear to remain isolated over a lateral distance of 3,000 feet. Organic chemicals were detected in water samples collected from water-supply wells in the Verona well field in 1981. In 1985, six water-supply wells were converted to purge wells to intercept organic chemicals and divert them from the remaining water-supply wells. Removal of these wells from service resulted in a water-supply shortage. A proposal in which an alternative purge system could be installed so that wells that are out of service may be reactivated was examined. A ground-water-flow model developed for this study indicates that, under the current purge configuration, most water from contaminant-source areas either is captured by purge wells or flows to the Battle Creek River. Some water, however, is captured by three water-supply wells. Model simulations indicate that with the addition of eight purge wells, the well field would be protected from contamination, most water from the contaminant-source areas would be captured by the purge system, and only a small portion would flow to the Battle Creek River. In an effort to augment the city's water supply, the potential for expansion of the Verona well field to the northeast also was investigated. Because of the addition of three municipal wells northeast of the well field, some water from the site of a gasoline spill may be captured by two water-supply wells. Ground water in the area northeast of Verona well field contains significantly lower concentrations of iron, manganese, and calcium carbonate than does water in the existing well field area. However, the Marshall Sandstone in this area has significantly lower transmissivities than those within Verona well field.

Redundancy of Supply in the International Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Market: Are Fabrication Services Assured?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seward, Amy M.; Toomey, Christopher; Ford, Benjamin E.

2011-11-14

For several years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been assessing the reliability of nuclear fuel supply in support of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration. Three international low enriched uranium reserves, which are intended back up the existing and well-functioning nuclear fuel market, are currently moving toward implementation. These backup reserves are intended to provide countries credible assurance that of the uninterrupted supply of nuclear fuel to operate their nuclear power reactors in the event that their primary fuel supply is disrupted, whether for political or other reasons. The efficacy of these backup reserves, however, may bemore » constrained without redundant fabrication services. This report presents the findings of a recent PNNL study that simulated outages of varying durations at specific nuclear fuel fabrication plants. The modeling specifically enabled prediction and visualization of the reactors affected and the degree of fuel delivery delay. The results thus provide insight on the extent of vulnerability to nuclear fuel supply disruption at the level of individual fabrication plants, reactors, and countries. The simulation studies demonstrate that, when a reasonable set of qualification criteria are applied, existing fabrication plants are technically qualified to provide backup fabrication services to the majority of the world's power reactors. The report concludes with an assessment of the redundancy of fuel supply in the nuclear fuel market, and a description of potential extra-market mechanisms to enhance the security of fuel supply in cases where it may be warranted. This report is an assessment of the ability of the existing market to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical reasons. A forthcoming report will address political disruption scenarios.« less

GTE blade injection moulding modeling and verification of models during process approbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanenko, I. S.; Khaimovich, A. I.

2017-02-01

The simulation model for filling the mould was developed using Moldex3D, and it was experimentally verified in order to perform further optimization calculations of the moulding process conditions. The method described in the article allows adjusting the finite-element model by minimizing the airfoil profile difference between the design and experimental melt motion front due to the differentiated change of power supplied to heating elements, which heat the injection mould in simulation. As a result of calibrating the injection mould for the gas-turbine engine blade, the mean difference between the design melt motion profile and the experimental airfoil profile of no more than 4% was achieved.

Transportation and dynamic networks: Models, theory, and applications to supply chains, electric power, and financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zugang

Network systems, including transportation and logistic systems, electric power generation and distribution networks as well as financial networks, provide the critical infrastructure for the functioning of our societies and economies. The understanding of the dynamic behavior of such systems is also crucial to national security and prosperity. The identification of new connections between distinct network systems is the inspiration for the research in this dissertation. In particular, I answer two questions raised by Beckmann, McGuire, and Winsten (1956) and Copeland (1952) over half a century ago, which are, respectively, how are electric power flows related to transportation flows and does money flow like water or electricity? In addition, in this dissertation, I achieve the following: (1) I establish the relationships between transportation networks and three other classes of complex network systems: supply chain networks, electric power generation and transmission networks, and financial networks with intermediation. The establishment of such connections provides novel theoretical insights as well as new pricing mechanisms, and efficient computational methods. (2) I develop new modeling frameworks based on evolutionary variational inequality theory that capture the dynamics of such network systems in terms of the time-varying flows and incurred costs, prices, and, where applicable, profits. This dissertation studies the dynamics of such network systems by addressing both internal competition and/or cooperation, and external changes, such as varying costs and demands. (3) I focus, in depth, on electric power supply chains. By exploiting the relationships between transportation networks and electric power supply chains, I develop a large-scale network model that integrates electric power supply chains and fuel supply markets. The model captures both the economic transactions as well as the physical transmission constraints. The model is then applied to the New England electric power supply chain consisting of 6 states, 5 fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand markets. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electricity prices simulated by the model match very well the actual electricity prices in New England. I also utilize the model to study interactions between electric power supply chains and energy fuel markets.

Field Scale Monitoring and Modeling of Water and Chemical Transfer in the Vadose Zone

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Natural resource systems involve highly complex interactions of soil-plant-atmosphere-management components that are extremely difficult to quantitatively describe. Computer simulations for prediction and management of watersheds, water supply areas, and agricultural fields and farms have become inc...

Chantey Castings: A Hands-On Simulation to Teach Constraint Management and Demand-Driven Supply Chain Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grandzol, Christian J.; Grandzol, John R.

2018-01-01

Supply chain design and constraint management are widely-adopted techniques in industry, necessitating that operations and supply chain educators teach these topics in ways that enhance student learning and retention, optimize resource utilization (especially time), and maximize student interest. The Chantey Castings Simulation provides a platform…

EpiPOD : community vaccination and dispensing model user's guide.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berry, M.; Samsa, M.; Walsh, D.

EpiPOD is a modeling system that enables local, regional, and county health departments to evaluate and refine their plans for mass distribution of antiviral and antibiotic medications and vaccines. An intuitive interface requires users to input as few or as many plan specifics as are available in order to simulate a mass treatment campaign. Behind the input interface, a system dynamics model simulates pharmaceutical supply logistics, hospital and first-responder personnel treatment, population arrival dynamics and treatment, and disease spread. When the simulation is complete, users have estimates of the number of illnesses in the population at large, the number ofmore » ill persons seeking treatment, and queuing and delays within the mass treatment system--all metrics by which the plan can be judged.« less

Modeling and simulation of temperature effect in polycrystalline silicon PV cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcu, M.; Niculescu, T.; Slusariuc, R. I.; Popescu, F. G.

2016-06-01

Due to the human needs of energy, there is a need to apply new technologies in energy conversion to supply the demand of clean and cheap energy in the context of environmental issues. Renewable energy sources like solar energy has one of the highest potentials. In this paper, solar panel is the key part of a photovoltaic system which converts solar energy to electrical energy. The purpose of this paper is to give a MATLAB/ Simulink simulation for photovoltaic module based on the one-diode model of a photovoltaic cell made of polycrystalline silicon. This model reveals the effect of the ambient temperature and the heating of the panel due to the solar infrared radiation. Also the measurements on the solar cell exposed to solar radiation can confirm the simulation.

JPRS Report, Science & Technology China: Energy

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-23

combined actual models and math - ematical models to conduct the research and established a total of nine actual models with boundary conditions supplied...10,000 ton-grade flotillas after the Three Gorges project is completed. Simulation experiments of actual passage of 10,000 ton-grade flotillas at...excavate the deep trench for the core wall of the weir for the second phase. Concrete tank cars, spreaders, and other equipment were also devel- oped

[Hydraulic simulation and safety assessment of secondary water supply system with anti-negative pressure facility].

PubMed

Wang, Huan-Huan; Liu, Shu-Ming; Jiang, Shuaiz; Meng, Fan-Lin; Bai, Lu

2013-01-01

In the last few decades, anti-negative pressure facility (ANPF) has been emerged as a revolutionary approach for sloving the pollution in the Second Water Supply System (SWSS) in China. This study analyzed implications of the safety in SWSS with ANPF, utilizing the water distribution network hydraulic model. A method of hydraulic simulation and security assessment was presented which was able to reflect the number and location of nodes that can be installed in ANPF. Benchmark results through two instance networks showed that 67% and 89% of nodes in each network did not fit the ANPFs for installation. The simple and pratical algorithm was recommended in the water distribution network design and planing in order to increase the security of SWSS.

Radiometric calibration of an airborne multispectral scanner. [of Thematic Mapper Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markham, Brian L.; Ahmad, Suraiya P.; Jackson, Ray D.; Moran, M. S.; Biggar, Stuart F.; Gellman, David I.; Slater, Philip N.

1991-01-01

The absolute radiometric calibration of the NS001 Thematic Mapper Simulator reflective channels was examined based on laboratory tests and in-flight comparisons to ground measurements. The NS001 data are calibrated in-flight by reference to the NS001 internal integrating sphere source. This source's power supply or monitoring circuitry exhibited greater instability in-flight during 1988-1989 than in the laboratory. Extrapolating laboratory behavior to in-flight data resulted in 7-20 percent radiance errors relative to ground measurements and atmospheric modeling. Assuming constancy in the source's output between laboraotry and in-flight resulted in generally smaller errors. Upgrades to the source's power supply and monitoring circuitry in 1990 improved its in-flight stability, though in-flight ground reflectance based calibration tests have not yet been performed.

A comparison of bivariate, multivariate random-effects, and Poisson correlated gamma-frailty models to meta-analyze individual patient data of ordinal scale diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Simoneau, Gabrielle; Levis, Brooke; Cuijpers, Pim; Ioannidis, John P A; Patten, Scott B; Shrier, Ian; Bombardier, Charles H; de Lima Osório, Flavia; Fann, Jesse R; Gjerdingen, Dwenda; Lamers, Femke; Lotrakul, Manote; Löwe, Bernd; Shaaban, Juwita; Stafford, Lesley; van Weert, Henk C P M; Whooley, Mary A; Wittkampf, Karin A; Yeung, Albert S; Thombs, Brett D; Benedetti, Andrea

2017-11-01

Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analyses are increasingly common in the literature. In the context of estimating the diagnostic accuracy of ordinal or semi-continuous scale tests, sensitivity and specificity are often reported for a given threshold or a small set of thresholds, and a meta-analysis is conducted via a bivariate approach to account for their correlation. When IPD are available, sensitivity and specificity can be pooled for every possible threshold. Our objective was to compare the bivariate approach, which can be applied separately at every threshold, to two multivariate methods: the ordinal multivariate random-effects model and the Poisson correlated gamma-frailty model. Our comparison was empirical, using IPD from 13 studies that evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire depression screening tool, and included simulations. The empirical comparison showed that the implementation of the two multivariate methods is more laborious in terms of computational time and sensitivity to user-supplied values compared to the bivariate approach. Simulations showed that ignoring the within-study correlation of sensitivity and specificity across thresholds did not worsen inferences with the bivariate approach compared to the Poisson model. The ordinal approach was not suitable for simulations because the model was highly sensitive to user-supplied starting values. We tentatively recommend the bivariate approach rather than more complex multivariate methods for IPD diagnostic accuracy meta-analyses of ordinal scale tests, although the limited type of diagnostic data considered in the simulation study restricts the generalization of our findings. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Ground-water levels, water quality, and potential effects of toxic-substance spills or cessation of quarry dewatering near a municipal ground-water supply, southeastern Franklin County, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedam, A.C.; Eberts, S.M.; Bair, E.S.

1989-01-01

A newly completed municipal ground-water supply that produces from a sand and gravel aquifer in southern Franklin County, Ohio, may be susceptible to potential sources of pollution. Among these are spills of toxic substances that could enter recharge areas of the aquifer or be carried by surface drainage and subsequently enter the aquifer by induced infiltration. Ground water of degraded quality also is present in the vicinity of several landfills located upstream from the municipal supply. Local dewatering by quarrying operations has created a ground-water divide which, at present, prevents direct movement of the degraded ground water to the municipal supply. In addition, the dewatering has held water levels at the largest landfills below the base of the landfill. Should the dewatering cease, concern would be raised regarding the rise of water levels at this landfills and transport of contaminants through the aquifer to the Scioto River and subsequently by the river to the well field. From June 1984 through July 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Columbus, Ohio, investigated the relations among the ground-water supply and potential sources of contamination by means of an observation-well network and a program of measuring water levels and sampling for water quality. Sample collections included those made to determine the baseline levels of organic chemicals and metals, as well as periodic sampling and analysis for common constituents to evaluate any changes taking place in the system. Finally, a steady-state, three-dimensional numerical model was used to determine ground-water flow directions and average ground-water velocities to asses potential effects of toxic-substance spills. The model also was used to simulate changes in the ground-water flow system that could result if part or all of the quarry dewatering ceased. Few of the organic-chemical and metal constituents analyzed for were present at detectable levels. With respect to chemical analysis of water and soil materials reported in earlier studies, no new problem areas were discovered as a result of either the baseline or periodic samplings. Model simulations suggest that, under March 1986 conditions, a toxic-substance spill along the major highways in the northern two-thirds of the study area eventually could discharge into one of the two quarries being dewatered or into the Scioto River. A toxic-substance spill in the southern one-third of the study area ultimately may discharge into the Scioto River, Big Walnut Creek, or possibly into the municipal ground-water supply. Model simulations also indicate that concentrated landfill leachate probably would not reach the municipal ground-water supply under current or well-field pumping conditions if dewatering ceased at either or both of the quarries.

Simulation of ridesourcing using agent-based demand and supply regional models : potential market demand for first-mile transit travel and reduction in vehicle miles traveled in the San Francisco Bay Area.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

In this study, we use existing modeling tools and data from the San Francisco Bay Area : (California) to understand the potential market demand for a first mile transit access service : and possible reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (a...

Using the snowmelt runoff model to evaluate climate change effects and to compare basin runoff between New Mexico and Idaho.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM) has been developed and tested in small to large basins worldwide. SRM has been found to be very useful for understanding snowmelt processes as well as for simulating or forecasting snowmelt-derived water supplies. SRM is being used in New Mexico in a NSF-funded EPSCo...

Optimizing simulated fertilizer additions using a genetic algorithm with a nutrient uptake model

Treesearch

Wendell P. Cropper; N.B. Comerford

2005-01-01

Intensive management of pine plantations in the southeastern coastal plain typically involves weed and pest control, and the addition of fertilizer to meet the high nutrient demand of rapidly growing pines. In this study we coupled a mechanistic nutrient uptake model (SSAND, soil supply and nutrient demand) with a genetic algorithm (GA) in order to estimate the minimum...

Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul

1997-01-01

Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

Only adding stationary storage to vaccine supply chains may create and worsen transport bottlenecks.

PubMed

Haidari, Leila A; Connor, Diana L; Wateska, Angela R; Brown, Shawn T; Mueller, Leslie E; Norman, Bryan A; Schmitz, Michelle M; Paul, Proma; Rajgopal, Jayant; Welling, Joel S; Leonard, Jim; Claypool, Erin G; Weng, Yu-Ting; Chen, Sheng-I; Lee, Bruce Y

2013-01-01

Although vaccine supply chains in many countries require additional stationary storage and transport capacity to meet current and future needs, international donors tend to donate stationary storage devices far more often than transport equipment. To investigate the impact of only adding stationary storage equipment on the capacity requirements of transport devices and vehicles, we used HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains) to construct a discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain. We measured the transport capacity requirement for each mode of transport used in the Niger vaccine cold chain, both before and after adding cold rooms and refrigerators to relieve all stationary storage constraints in the system. With the addition of necessary stationary storage, the average transport capacity requirement increased from 88% to 144% for cold trucks, from 101% to 197% for pickup trucks, and from 366% to 420% for vaccine carriers. Therefore, adding stationary storage alone may worsen or create new transport bottlenecks as more vaccines flow through the system, preventing many vaccines from reaching their target populations. Dynamic modeling can reveal such relationships between stationary storage capacity and transport constraints.

Only Adding Stationary Storage to Vaccine Supply Chains May Create and Worsen Transport Bottlenecks

PubMed Central

Haidari, Leila A.; Connor, Diana L.; Wateska, Angela R.; Brown, Shawn T.; Mueller, Leslie E.; Norman, Bryan A.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Paul, Proma; Rajgopal, Jayant; Welling, Joel S.; Leonard, Jim; Claypool, Erin G.; Weng, Yu-Ting; Chen, Sheng-I; Lee, Bruce Y.

2015-01-01

Although vaccine supply chains in many countries require additional stationary storage and transport capacity to meet current and future needs, international donors tend to donate stationary storage devices far more often than transport equipment. To investigate the impact of only adding stationary storage equipment on the capacity requirements of transport devices and vehicles, we used HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains) to construct a discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain. We measured the transport capacity requirement for each mode of transport used in the Niger vaccine cold chain, both before and after adding cold rooms and refrigerators to relieve all stationary storage constraints in the system. With the addition of necessary stationary storage, the average transport capacity requirement increased from 88% to 144% for cold trucks, from 101% to 197% for pickup trucks, and from 366% to 420% for vaccine carriers. Therefore, adding stationary storage alone may worsen or create new transport bottlenecks as more vaccines flow through the system, preventing many vaccines from reaching their target populations. Dynamic modeling can reveal such relationships between stationary storage capacity and transport constraints. PMID:23903398

In the Way of Peacemaker Guide Curve between Water Supply and Flood Control for Short Term Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, G.; Sensoy, A.; Yavuz, O.; Sorman, A. A.; Gezgin, T.

2012-04-01

Effective management of a controlled reservoir system where it involves multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives is a complex problem especially in real time operations. Yuvacık Dam Reservoir, located in the Marmara region of Turkey, is built to supply annual demand of 142 hm3 water for Kocaeli city requires such a complex management strategy since it has relatively small (51 hm3) effective capacity. On the other hand, the drainage basin is fed by both rainfall and snowmelt since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. Excessive water must be stored behind the radial gates between February and May in terms of sustainability especially for summer and autumn periods. Moreover, the downstream channel physical conditions constraint the spillway releases up to 100 m3/s although the spillway is large enough to handle major floods. Thus, this situation makes short term release decisions the challenging task. Long term water supply curves, based on historical inflows and annual water demand, are in conflict with flood regulation (control) levels, based on flood attenuation and routing curves, for this reservoir. A guide curve, that is generated using both water supply and flood control of downstream channel, generally corresponds to upper elevation of conservation pool for simulation of a reservoir. However, sometimes current operation necessitates exceeding this target elevation. Since guide curves can be developed as a function of external variables, the water potential of a basin can be an indicator to explain current conditions and decide on the further strategies. Besides, releases with respect to guide curve are managed and restricted by user-defined rules. Although the managers operate the reservoir due to several variable conditions and predictions, still the simulation model using variable guide curve is an urgent need to test alternatives quickly. To that end, using HEC-ResSim, the several variable guide curves are defined to meet the requirements by taking inflow, elevation, precipitation and snow water equivalent into consideration to propose alternative simulations as a decision support system. After that, the releases are subjected to user-defined rules. Thus, previous year reservoir simulations are compared with observed reservoir levels and releases. Hypothetical flood scenarios are tested in case of different storm event timing and sizing. Numerical weather prediction data of Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) can be used for temperature and precipitation forecasts that will form the inputs for a hydrological model. The estimated flows can be used for real time short term decisions for reservoir simulation based on variable guide curve and user defined rules.

Reorganizing Nigeria's Vaccine Supply Chain Reduces Need For Additional Storage Facilities, But More Storage Is Required.

PubMed

Shittu, Ekundayo; Harnly, Melissa; Whitaker, Shanta; Miller, Roger

2016-02-01

One of the major problems facing Nigeria's vaccine supply chain is the lack of adequate vaccine storage facilities. Despite the introduction of solar-powered refrigerators and the use of new tools to monitor supply levels, this problem persists. Using data on vaccine supply for 2011-14 from Nigeria's National Primary Health Care Development Agency, we created a simulation model to explore the effects of variance in supply and demand on storage capacity requirements. We focused on the segment of the supply chain that moves vaccines inside Nigeria. Our findings suggest that 55 percent more vaccine storage capacity is needed than is currently available. We found that reorganizing the supply chain as proposed by the National Primary Health Care Development Agency could reduce that need to 30 percent more storage. Storage requirements varied by region of the country and vaccine type. The Nigerian government may want to consider the differences in storage requirements by region and vaccine type in its proposed reorganization efforts. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Simulation of wheat growth and development based on organ-level photosynthesis and assimilate allocation.

PubMed

Evers, J B; Vos, J; Yin, X; Romero, P; van der Putten, P E L; Struik, P C

2010-05-01

Intimate relationships exist between form and function of plants, determining many processes governing their growth and development. However, in most crop simulation models that have been created to simulate plant growth and, for example, predict biomass production, plant structure has been neglected. In this study, a detailed simulation model of growth and development of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) is presented, which integrates degree of tillering and canopy architecture with organ-level light interception, photosynthesis, and dry-matter partitioning. An existing spatially explicit 3D architectural model of wheat development was extended with routines for organ-level microclimate, photosynthesis, assimilate distribution within the plant structure according to organ demands, and organ growth and development. Outgrowth of tiller buds was made dependent on the ratio between assimilate supply and demand of the plants. Organ-level photosynthesis, biomass production, and bud outgrowth were simulated satisfactorily. However, to improve crop simulation results more efforts are needed mechanistically to model other major plant physiological processes such as nitrogen uptake and distribution, tiller death, and leaf senescence. Nevertheless, the work presented here is a significant step forwards towards a mechanistic functional-structural plant model, which integrates plant architecture with key plant processes.

Regenerative life support system research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Sections on modeling, experimental activities during the grant period, and topics under consideration for the future are contained. The sessions contain discussions of: four concurrent modeling approaches that were being integrated near the end of the period (knowledge-based modeling support infrastructure and data base management, object-oriented steady state simulations for three concepts, steady state mass-balance engineering tradeoff studies, and object-oriented time-step, quasidynamic simulations of generic concepts); interdisciplinary research activities, beginning with a discussion of RECON lab development and use, and followed with discussions of waste processing research, algae studies and subsystem modeling, low pressure growth testing of plants, subsystem modeling of plants, control of plant growth using lighting and CO2 supply as variables, search for and development of lunar soil simulants, preliminary design parameters for a lunar base life support system, and research considerations for food processing in space; and appendix materials, including a discussion of the CELSS Conference, detailed analytical equations for mass-balance modeling, plant modeling equations, and parametric data on existing life support systems for use in modeling.

Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong

2016-11-01

As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio_E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio_LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWATmore » model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT’s performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests.« less

Application of RANS Simulations for Contact Time Predictions in Turbulent Reactor Tanks for Water Purification Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickles, Cassandra; Goodman, Matthew; Saez, Jose; Issakhanian, Emin

2016-11-01

California's current drought has renewed public interest in recycled water from Water Reclamation Plants (WRPs). It is critical that the recycled water meets public health standards. This project consists of simulating the transport of an instantaneous conservative tracer through the WRP chlorine contact tanks. Local recycled water regulations stipulate a minimum 90-minute modal contact time during disinfection at peak dry weather design flow. In-situ testing is extremely difficult given flowrate dependence on real world sewage line supply and recycled water demand. Given as-built drawings and operation parameters, the chlorine contact tanks are modeled to simulate extreme situations, which may not meet regulatory standards. The turbulent flow solutions are used as the basis to model the transport of a turbulently diffusing conservative tracer added instantaneously to the inlet of the reactors. This tracer simulates the transport through advection and dispersion of chlorine in the WRPs. Previous work validated the models against experimental data. The current work shows the predictive value of the simulations.

Several comparison result of two types of equilibrium (Pareto Schemes and Stackelberg Scheme) of game theory approach in probabilistic vendor – buyer supply chain system with imperfect quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, R.

2018-05-01

In this paper, Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) of the vendor-buyer supply-chain model under a probabilistic condition with imperfect quality items has been analysed. The analysis is delivered using two concepts in game theory approach, which is Stackelberg equilibrium and Pareto Optimal, under non-cooperative and cooperative games, respectively. Another result is getting acomparison of theoptimal result between integrated scheme and game theory approach based on analytical and numerical result using appropriate simulation data.

Preliminary results from a four-working space, double-acting piston, Stirling engine controls model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniele, C. J.; Lorenzo, C. F.

1980-01-01

A four working space, double acting piston, Stirling engine simulation is being developed for controls studies. The development method is to construct two simulations, one for detailed fluid behavior, and a second model with simple fluid behaviour but containing the four working space aspects and engine inertias, validate these models separately, then upgrade the four working space model by incorporating the detailed fluid behaviour model for all four working spaces. The single working space (SWS) model contains the detailed fluid dynamics. It has seven control volumes in which continuity, energy, and pressure loss effects are simulated. Comparison of the SWS model with experimental data shows reasonable agreement in net power versus speed characteristics for various mean pressure levels in the working space. The four working space (FWS) model was built to observe the behaviour of the whole engine. The drive dynamics and vehicle inertia effects are simulated. To reduce calculation time, only three volumes are used in each working space and the gas temperature are fixed (no energy equation). Comparison of the FWS model predicted power with experimental data shows reasonable agreement. Since all four working spaces are simulated, the unique capabilities of the model are exercised to look at working fluid supply transients, short circuit transients, and piston ring leakage effects.

Supply Chain Management Model for Modular or Flexible Optimally Manned Ships

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

Navy’s New Class of Warships: Big Bucks, Little Bang .” Battleland. Accessed October 3, 2013. http://nation.time.com/2012/10/05/the-navys-new-class-of...warships- big -bucks- little- bang /. Strauch, F. C. n.d. ARROWS Model Evaluation. Project Number N9324-B11-4135, Mechanicsburg, PA: Navy Fleet Material...existing models to determine which one could be suitable for altering to meet the stakeholders’ requirements. Modeling and simulation was used to

Conceptual model and numerical simulation of the groundwater-flow system of Bainbridge Island, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Bachmann, Matthew P.; Sumioka, Steve S.; Olsen, Theresa D.

2011-01-01

Groundwater is the sole source of drinking water for the population of Bainbridge Island. Increased use of groundwater supplies on Bainbridge Island as the population has grown over time has created concern about the quantity of water available and whether saltwater intrusion will occur as groundwater usage increases. A groundwater-flow model was developed to aid in the understanding of the groundwater system and the effects of groundwater development alternatives on the water resources of Bainbridge Island. Bainbridge Island is underlain by unconsolidated deposits of glacial and nonglacial origin. The surficial geologic units and the deposits at depth were differentiated into aquifers and confining units on the basis of areal extent and general water-bearing characteristics. Eleven principal hydrogeologic units are recognized in the study area and form the basis of the groundwater-flow model. A transient variable-density groundwater-flow model of Bainbridge Island and the surrounding area was developed to simulate current (2008) groundwater conditions. The model was calibrated to water levels measured during 2007 and 2008 using parameter estimation (PEST) to minimize the weighted differences or residuals between simulated and measured hydraulic head. The calibrated model was used to make some general observations of the groundwater system in 2008. Total flow through the groundwater system was about 31,000 acre-ft/ yr. The recharge to the groundwater system was from precipitation and septic-system returns. Groundwater flow to Bainbridge Island accounted for about 1,000 acre-ft/ yr or slightly more than 5 percent of the recharge amounts. Groundwater discharge was predominately to streams, lakes, springs, and seepage faces (16,000 acre-ft/yr) and directly to marine waters (10,000 acre-ft/yr). Total groundwater withdrawals in 2008 were slightly more than 6 percent (2,000 acre-ft/yr) of the total flow. The calibrated model was used to simulate predevelopment conditions, during which no groundwater pumping or secondary recharge occurred and currently developed land was covered by conifer forests. Simulated water levels in the uppermost aquifer generally were slightly higher at the end of 2008 than under predevelopment conditions, likely due to increased recharge from septic returns and reduced evapotranspiration losses due to conversion of land cover from forests to current conditions. Simulated changes in water levels for the extensively used sea-level aquifer were variable, although areas with declines between zero and 10 feet were common and generally can be traced to withdrawals from public-supply drinking wells. Simulated water-level declines in the deep (Fletcher Bay) aquifer between predevelopment and 2008 conditions ranged from about 10 feet in the northeast to about 25 feet on the western edge of the Island. These declines are related to groundwater withdrawals for public-supply purposes. The calibrated model also was used to simulate the possible effects of increased groundwater pumping and changes to recharge due to changes in land use and climactic conditions between 2008 and 2035 under minimal, expected, and maximum impact conditions. Drawdowns generally were small for most of the Island (less than 10 ft) for the minimal and expected impact scenarios, and were larger for the maximum impact scenario. No saltwater intrusion was evident in any scenario by the year 2035. The direction of flow in the deep Fletcher Bay aquifer was simulated to reverse direction from its predevelopment west to east direction to an east to west direction under the maximum impact scenario.

A Simulation Model for Procedure Inference from a Mental Model for a Simple Device.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-05-25

can flow to, and the indicator lights show where the power is present. According to these results, the critical information is the system topology...show the flow of power into the energon storage system. Maintenance of a collapsed energon ring requires a supply of vector bosons which is...model; in some tasks there is clearly no effect. The device model in that study was developed intuitivIy. But upon examining the model in light of the

Rapid reconnaissance hydrogeologic modeling on public lands using analytic element solutions coupled with MODFLOW - application to the Eagle Creek watershed, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, R. D.

2012-12-01

There is frequently a need in land management agencies for a quick and easy method for estimating hydrogeologic conditions in a watershed for which there is very little subsurface information. Setting up a finite difference or finite element model takes valuable time that often is not available when decisions need to be made quickly. An analytic element model (AEM), GFLOW in this case, may enable the investigator to produce a preliminary steady-state model for a watershed, and to easily evaluate variants of the conceptual model. Use of preexisting data, such as stream gage data or USGS reports makes the job much easier. Solutions to analytic element models are obtained within seconds. The Eagle Creek watershed in central New Mexico is a site of local water supply issues in an area of volcanic and plutonic rocks. Parameters estimated by groundwater consultants and the USGS, and discharge data from three USGS stream gages were used to set up the steady-state analytical model (GFLOW). Matching gage records with line-sink fluxes facilitated conceptualization of local groundwater flow and quick analysis of the effects of steady water supply pumping on Eagle Creek. Because of steep topgraphy and limited access, a water supply well is located within the stream channel within 20 meters of the creek, and it would be useful to evaluate the effects of the well on stream flow. A USGS report (SIR 2010-5205) revealed a section of Eagle Creek with a high vertical conductivity which results in flow loss of up to 34 l/s (including flow to the water table and flow into alluvium) when the well was pumped and the water table was lowered below the channel bottom. The water supply well was simulated with a steady-state well pumping at the average and maximum rates of 12 l/s and 31 l/s. The initial simulation shows that pumping at these rates results in stream flow loss of 19% and 51%, respectively. The simulation was conducted with average flow conditions, and this information will be important in planning for management during periods of drought, as well as times of more normal precipitation; as water uses must be balanced with the needs of the existing ecosystem. Alternatives, such as low conductivity blocks between stream channels and different volumetric and geographic pumping scenarios may also be readily explored in an AEM. Exporting these scenarios into MODFLOW simulations will enable us to evaluate transient and cyclical pumping effects on the surface waters for each AEM conceptualization, as well as being able to simulate seasonal recharge. However, in many cases the use of MODFLOW may not be necessary, if the AEM proves sufficient to answer the relevant questions. Symbiotic use of GFLOW and MODFLOW will be an invaluable aid in evaluating groundwater and its uses in National Forest watersheds, especially in cases when time is a critical factor in informed decision-making.

Cost of Oil and Biomass Supply Shocks under Different Biofuel Supply Chain Configurations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uria Martinez, Rocio; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Brown, Maxwell L.

This analysis estimates the cost of selected oil and biomass supply shocks for producers and consumers in the light-duty vehicle fuel market under various supply chain configurations using a mathematical programing model, BioTrans. The supply chain configurations differ by whether they include selected flexibility levers: multi-feedstock biorefineries; advanced biomass logistics; and the ability to adjust ethanol content of low-ethanol fuel blends, from E10 to E15 or E05. The simulated scenarios explore market responses to supply shocks including substitution between gasoline and ethanol, substitution between different sources of ethanol supply, biorefinery capacity additions or idling, and price adjustments. Welfare effects formore » the various market participants represented in BioTrans are summarized into a net shock cost measure. As oil accounts for a larger fraction of fuel by volume, its supply shocks are costlier than biomass supply shocks. Corn availability and the high cost of adding biorefinery capacity limit increases in ethanol use during gasoline price spikes. During shocks that imply sudden decreases in the price of gasoline, the renewable fuel standard (RFS) biofuel blending mandate limits the extent to which flexibility can be exercised to reduce ethanol use. The selected flexibility levers are most useful in response to cellulosic biomass supply shocks.« less

3% Yield Increase (HH3), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 3% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

2% Yield Increase (HH2), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Maggie R.; Hellwinkel, Chad; Eaton, Laurence

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought tomore » market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 2% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.« less

Age-specific bone tumour incidence rates are governed by stem cell exhaustion influencing the supply and demand of progenitor cells.

PubMed

Richardson, Richard B

2014-07-01

Knudson's carcinogenic model, which simulates incidence rates for retinoblastoma, provides compelling evidence for a two-stage mutational process. However, for more complex cancers, existing multistage models are less convincing. To fill this gap, I hypothesize that neoplasms preferentially arise when stem cell exhaustion creates a short supply of progenitor cells at ages of high proliferative demand. To test this hypothesis, published datasets were employed to model the age distribution of osteochondroma, a benign lesion, and osteosarcoma, a malignant one. The supply of chondrogenic stem-like cells in femur growth plates of children and adolescents was evaluated and compared with the progenitor cell demand of longitudinal bone growth. Similarly, the supply of osteoprogenitor cells from birth to old age was compared with the demands of bone formation. Results show that progenitor cell demand-to-supply ratios are a good risk indicator, exhibiting similar trends to the unimodal and bimodal age distributions of osteochondroma and osteosarcoma, respectively. The hypothesis also helps explain Peto's paradox and the finding that taller individuals are more prone to cancers and have shorter lifespans. The hypothesis was tested, in the manner of Knudson, by its ability to convincingly explain and demonstrate, for the first time, a bone tumour's bimodal age-incidence curve. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, Matthew; Macal, Charles M.; Conzelmann, Guenter

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supplymore » of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.« less

Testing the utility of the 3-PG model for growth of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla with natural and manipulated supplies of water and nutrients

Treesearch

Jose Luiz Stape; Michael G. Ryan; Dan Binkley

2004-01-01

The productivity of fast-growing tropical plantations depends, in part, on the ability of trees to obtain and utilize site resources, and the allocation of fixed carbon (C) to wood production. Simulation models can represent these processes and interactions, but the value of these models depends on their ability to improve predictions of stand growth relative to...

Green supply chain: Simulating road traffic congestion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalal, Muhammad Zulqarnain Hakim Abd; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd; Laailatul Hanim Mat Desa, Wan; Khalid, Ruzelan; Khalid Abduljabbar, Waleed; Ramli, Razamin

2017-09-01

With the increasing awareness of the consumers about environmental issues, businesses, households and governments increasingly want use green products and services which lead to green supply chain. This paper discusses a simulation study of a selected road traffic system that will contribute to the air pollution if in the congestion state. Road traffic congestion (RTC) can be caused by a temporary obstruction, a permanent capacity bottleneck in the network itself, and stochastic fluctuation in demand within a particular sector of the network, leading to spillback and queue propagation. A discrete-event simulation model is developed to represent the real traffic light control (TLC) system condition during peak hours. Certain performance measures such as average waiting time and queue length were measured using the simulation model. Existing system uses pre-set cycle time to control the light changes which is fixed time cycle. In this research, we test several other combination of pre-set cycle time with the objective to find the best system. In addition, we plan to use a combination of the pre-set cycle time and a proximity sensor which have the authority to manipulate the cycle time of the lights. The sensors work in such situation when the street seems to have less occupied vehicles, obviously it may not need a normal cycle for green light, and automatically change the cycle to street where vehicle is present.

Use case driven approach to develop simulation model for PCS of APR1400 simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong Wook, Kim; Hong Soo, Kim; Hyeon Tae, Kang

2006-07-01

The full-scope simulator is being developed to evaluate specific design feature and to support the iterative design and validation in the Man-Machine Interface System (MMIS) design of Advanced Power Reactor (APR) 1400. The simulator consists of process model, control logic model, and MMI for the APR1400 as well as the Power Control System (PCS). In this paper, a use case driven approach is proposed to develop a simulation model for PCS. In this approach, a system is considered from the point of view of its users. User's view of the system is based on interactions with the system and themore » resultant responses. In use case driven approach, we initially consider the system as a black box and look at its interactions with the users. From these interactions, use cases of the system are identified. Then the system is modeled using these use cases as functions. Lower levels expand the functionalities of each of these use cases. Hence, starting from the topmost level view of the system, we proceeded down to the lowest level (the internal view of the system). The model of the system thus developed is use case driven. This paper will introduce the functionality of the PCS simulation model, including a requirement analysis based on use case and the validation result of development of PCS model. The PCS simulation model using use case will be first used during the full-scope simulator development for nuclear power plant and will be supplied to Shin-Kori 3 and 4 plant. The use case based simulation model development can be useful for the design and implementation of simulation models. (authors)« less

Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland; Nickel, Darla; Meleg, Alejandro; Trifkovic, Aleksandar; Braun, Juergen

Within the framework of the research project ‘GLOWA-Danube’, a model of the water supply sector has been developed. GLOWA-Danube investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global change. For this purpose, the decision support system DANUBIA, comprising 15 fully coupled models, has been developed. Within DANUBIA the water supply model (‘WaterSupply’) forms the link between various physical models determining water quality and availability and several socio-economic models determining water consumption and demand. Having a central focus on public drinking water supply, its purpose is to correctly simulate the present day system of water extraction and distribution and the related costs, but also to allow meaningful response to possible future changes of boundary conditions, first and foremost changes in water demand or water availability and quality. Response mechanisms are also envisioned for changes in political and economic boundary conditions, and advances in technology. The model will be used locate critical regions which could experience water stress in the future, but does not aim to find the appropriate solutions or to predict the optimal organisation of water supply in the Danube Basin under such changing conditions. In the object-oriented model structure, both water supply companies (WSC) and communities are represented by main classes. Both classes have a limited view and knowledge of their environment. A community knows where and how much water is consumed and from which WSC it is served. A WSC possesses information regarding extraction sites and water rights, raw water quality and potential collaborating WSC. The WSC can perform actions that are different from ‘business as usual’. These deviations from their usual behaviour can be interpreted by decision makers but should not be regarded as a replacement for the decision-making process itself. The model is conceptualised using object-oriented concepts of the Unified Modelling Language (UML) and is implemented in JAVA. This short overview is meant to answer key questions such as why and how WaterSupply was implemented, what is unique and new about the model and what are the general lessons learned and the added value with regard to integrated modelling on a river basin scale. It is obvious that in the attempt to answer these questions it is not possible to satisfy experts from all the relevant related fields, which include computer sciences, economy, behavioural science and not least water supply engineering and hydrology.

Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

2008-10-01

Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

Freshwater-saltwater transition zone movement during aquifer storage and recovery cycles in Brooklyn and Queens, New York City, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Misut, P.E.; Voss, C.I.

2007-01-01

Freshwater storage in deep aquifers of Brooklyn and Queens, New York, USA, is under consideration as an emergency water supply for New York City. The purpose of a New York City storage and recovery system is to provide an emergency water supply during times of drought or other contingencies and would entail longer-term storage phases than a typical annual cycle. There is concern amongst neighboring coastal communities that such a system would adversely impact their local water supplies via increased saltwater intrusion. This analysis uses three-dimensional modeling of variable-density ground-water flow and salt transport to study conditions under which hypothetical aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) may not adversely impact the coastal water supplies. A range of storage, pause, and recovery phase lengths and ASR cycle repetitions were used to test scenarios that emphasize control of potential saltwater intrusion. The USGS SUTRA code was used to simulate movement of the freshwater-saltwater transition zones in a detailed model of the upper glacial, Jameco, Magothy, and Lloyd aquifers of western Long Island, New York. Simulated transition zones in the upper glacial, Jameco, and Magothy aquifers reach a steady state for 1999 stress and recharge conditions within 1 ka; however, saltwater encroachment is ongoing in the Lloyd (deepest) aquifer, for which the effects of the rise in sea level since deglaciation on transition zone equilibration are retarded by many ka due to the thick, overlying Raritan confining unit. Pumping in the 20th century has also caused widening and landward movement of the Lloyd aquifer transition zone. Simulation of scenarios of freshwater storage by injection followed by phases of pause and recovery by extraction indicates that the effect of net storage when less water is recovered than injected is to set up a hydraulic saltwater intrusion barrier in the Lloyd aquifer which may have beneficial effects to coastal water users. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Freshwater saltwater transition zone movement during aquifer storage and recovery cycles in Brooklyn and Queens, New York City, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misut, Paul E.; Voss, Clifford I.

2007-04-01

SummaryFreshwater storage in deep aquifers of Brooklyn and Queens, New York, USA, is under consideration as an emergency water supply for New York City. The purpose of a New York City storage and recovery system is to provide an emergency water supply during times of drought or other contingencies and would entail longer-term storage phases than a typical annual cycle. There is concern amongst neighboring coastal communities that such a system would adversely impact their local water supplies via increased saltwater intrusion. This analysis uses three-dimensional modeling of variable-density ground-water flow and salt transport to study conditions under which hypothetical aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) may not adversely impact the coastal water supplies. A range of storage, pause, and recovery phase lengths and ASR cycle repetitions were used to test scenarios that emphasize control of potential saltwater intrusion. The USGS SUTRA code was used to simulate movement of the freshwater-saltwater transition zones in a detailed model of the upper glacial, Jameco, Magothy, and Lloyd aquifers of western Long Island, New York. Simulated transition zones in the upper glacial, Jameco, and Magothy aquifers reach a steady state for 1999 stress and recharge conditions within 1 ka; however, saltwater encroachment is ongoing in the Lloyd (deepest) aquifer, for which the effects of the rise in sea level since deglaciation on transition zone equilibration are retarded by many ka due to the thick, overlying Raritan confining unit. Pumping in the 20th century has also caused widening and landward movement of the Lloyd aquifer transition zone. Simulation of scenarios of freshwater storage by injection followed by phases of pause and recovery by extraction indicates that the effect of net storage when less water is recovered than injected is to set up a hydraulic saltwater intrusion barrier in the Lloyd aquifer which may have beneficial effects to coastal water users.

Hydrogeologic investigation and simulation of ground-water flow in the Upper Floridan Aquifer of north-central Florida and southwestern Georgia and delineation of contributing areas for selected city of Tallahassee, Florida, water-supply wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J. Hal

1996-01-01

A 4-year investigation of the Upper Floridan aquifer and ground-water flow system in Leon County, Florida, and surrounding counties of north-central Florida and southwestern Georgia began in 1990. The purpose of the investigation was to describe the ground-water flow system and to delineate the contributing areas to selected City of Tallahassee, Florida, water-supply wells. The investigation was prompted by the detection of low levels of tetrachloroethylene in ground-water samples collected from several of the city's water-supply wells. Hydrologic data and previous studies indicate that; ground-water flow within the Upper Floridan aquifer can be considered steady-state; the Upper Floridan aquifer is a single water-bearing unit; recharge is from precipitation; and that discharge occurs as spring flow, leakage to rivers, leakage to the Gulf of Mexico, and pumpage. Measured transmissivities of the aquifer ranged from 1,300 ft2/d (feet squared per day) to 1,300,000 ft2/d. Steady-state ground-water flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer was simulated using a three-dimensional ground- water flow model. Transmissivities ranging from less than 5,000 ft2/d to greater than 11,000,000 ft2/d were required to calibrate to observed conditions. Recharge rates used in the model ranged from 18.0 inches per year in areas where the aquifer was unconfined to less than 2 inches per year in broad areas where the aquifer was confined. Contributing areas to five Tallahassee water-supply wells were simulated by particle- tracking techniques. Particles were seeded in model cells containing pumping wells then tracked backwards in time toward recharge areas. The contributing area for each well was simulated twice, once assuming a porosity of 25 percent and once assuming a porosity of 5 percent. A porosity of 25 percent is considered a reasonable average value for the Upper Floridan aquifer; the 5 percent porosity simulated the movement of ground-water through only solution-enhanced bedding plains and fractures. The contributing areas were generally elliptical in shape, reflecting the influence of the sloping potentiometric surface. The contributing areas delineated for a 5 percent porosity were always much larger than those determined using a 25 percent porosity. The lowest average ground-water velocity computed within a contributing area, using a 25 percent porosity, was 1.0 ft/d (foot per day) and the highest velocity was 1.6 ft/d. The lowest average ground-water velocity, determined using a 5 percent porosity, was 2.4 ft/d and the highest was 7.4 ft/d. The contributing areas for each of the five wells was also determined analytically and compared to the model-derived areas. The upgradient width of the simulated contributing areas were larger than the upgradient width of the analytically determined contributing areas for four of the five wells. The model could more accurately delineate contributing areas because of the ability to simulate wells as partially penetrating and by incorporating complex, three-dimensional aquifer characteristics, which the analytical method could not.

Simulation of reservoir storage and firm yields of three surface-water supplies, Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.

2002-01-01

A Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model previously developed for the Ipswich River Basin was modified to simulate the hydrologic response and firm yields of the water-supply systems of Lynn, Peabody, and Salem-Beverly. The updated model, expanded to include a portion of the Saugus River Basin that supplies water to Lynn, simulated reservoir system storage over a 35-year period (1961-95) under permitted withdrawals and hypothetical restrictions designed to maintain seasonally varied streamflow for aquatic habitat. A firm yield was calculated for each system and each withdrawal restriction by altering demands until the system failed. This is considered the maximum withdrawal rate that satisfies demands, but depletes reservoir storage. Simulations indicate that, under the permitted withdrawals, Lynn and Salem-Beverly were able to meet demands and generally have their reservoir system recover to full capacity during most years; reservoir storage averaged 83 and 82 percent of capacity, respectively. The firm yields for the Lynn and Salem-Beverly systems were 11.4 and 12.2 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), respectively, or 8 and 21 percent more than average 1998-2000 demands, respectively. Under permitted withdrawals and average 1998-2000 demands, the Peabody system failed in all years; thus Peabody purchased water to meet demands. The firm yield for the Peabody system is 3.70 Mgal/d, or 37 percent less than the average 1998-2000 demand. Simulations that limit withdrawals to levels recommended by the Ipswich River Fisheries Restoration Task Group (IRFRTG) indicate that under average 1998-2000 demands, reservoir storage was depleted in each of the three systems. Reservoir storage under average 1998-2000 demands and IRFRTG-recommended streamflow requirements averaged 15, 22, and 71 percent of capacity for the Lynn, Peabody, Salem-Beverly systems, respectively. The firm-yield estimates under the IRFRTG-recommended streamflow requirements were 6.02, 1.94, and 7.69 Mgal/d or 43, 64, and 34 percent less than the average 1998-2000 demands for the Lynn, Peabody, and Salem-Beverly systems, respectively. Simulations that limit withdrawals from the Saugus River to a less stringent set of restrictions (based on an Instream Flow Incremental Methodology study) than those previously simulated indicate that the firm yield of the Lynn system is about 31 percent less than the average 1998-2000 withdrawals (7.31 Mgal/d).

Particle-tracking analysis of contributing areas of public-supply wells in simple and complex flow systems, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, P.M.

1994-01-01

Steady-state, two-and three-dimensional, ground-water flow models coupled with a particle- tracking program were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in delineating contributing areas of existing and hypothetical public-supply wells pumping from two contrasting stratified-drift aquifers of Cape Cod, Mass. Several of the contri- buting areas delineated by use of the three- dimensional models do not conform to simple ellipsoidal shapes that are typically delineated by use of a two-dimensional analytical and numerical modeling techniques, include dis- continuous areas of the water table, and do not surround the wells. Because two-dimensional areal models do not account for vertical flow, they cannot adequately represent many of the hydro- geologic and well-design variables that were shown to complicate the delineation of contributing areas in these flow systems, including the presence of discrete lenses of 1ow hydraulic conductivity, large ratios of horizontal to ver- tical hydraulic conductivity, shallow streams, partially penetrating supply wells, and 1ow pumping rates (less than 0.1 million gallons per day). Nevertheless, contributing areas delineated for two wells in the simpler of the two flow systems--a thin (less than 100 feet), single- layer, uniform aquifer with near-ideal boundary conditions--were not significantly different for the two- or three-dimensional models of the natural system, for a pumping rate of 0.5 million gallons per day. Use of particle tracking helped identify the source of water to simulated wells, which included precipitation recharge, wastewater return flow, and pond water. Pond water and wastewater return flow accounted for as much as 73 and 40 percent, respectively, of the water captured by simulated wells.

Installation effects on performance of multiple model V/STOL lift fans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diedrich, J. H.; Clough, N.; Lieblein, S.

1972-01-01

An experimental program was performed in which the individual performance of multiple VTOL model lift fans was measured. The model tested consisted of three 5.5 in. diameter tip-turbine driven model VTOL lift fans mounted chordwise in a two-dimensional wing to simulate a pod-type array. The performance data provided significant insight into possible thrust variations and losses caused by the presence of cover doors, adjacent fuselage panels, and adjacent fans. The effect of a partial loss of drive air supply (simulated gas generator failure) on fan performance was also investigated. The results of the tests demonstrated that lift fan installation variables and hardware can have a significant effect on the thrust of the individual fans.

PrimeSupplier Cross-Program Impact Analysis and Supplier Stability Indicator Simulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calluzzi, Michael

2009-01-01

PrimeSupplier, a supplier cross-program and element-impact simulation model, with supplier solvency indicator (SSI), has been developed so that the shuttle program can see early indicators of supplier and product line stability, while identifying the various elements and/or programs that have a particular supplier or product designed into the system. The model calculates two categories of benchmarks to determine the SSI, with one category focusing on agency programmatic data and the other focusing on a supplier's financial liquidity. PrimeSupplier was developed to help NASA smoothly transition design, manufacturing, and repair operations from the Shuttle program to the Constellation program, without disruption in the industrial supply base.

SIGMA: A Knowledge-Based Simulation Tool Applied to Ecosystem Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dungan, Jennifer L.; Keller, Richard; Lawless, James G. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The need for better technology to facilitate building, sharing and reusing models is generally recognized within the ecosystem modeling community. The Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modelling Assistant (SIGMA) creates an environment for model building, sharing and reuse which provides an alternative to more conventional approaches which too often yield poorly documented, awkwardly structured model code. The SIGMA interface presents the user a list of model quantities which can be selected for computation. Equations to calculate the model quantities may be chosen from an existing library of ecosystem modeling equations, or built using a specialized equation editor. Inputs for dim equations may be supplied by data or by calculation from other equations. Each variable and equation is expressed using ecological terminology and scientific units, and is documented with explanatory descriptions and optional literature citations. Automatic scientific unit conversion is supported and only physically-consistent equations are accepted by the system. The system uses knowledge-based semantic conditions to decide which equations in its library make sense to apply in a given situation, and supplies these to the user for selection. "Me equations and variables are graphically represented as a flow diagram which provides a complete summary of the model. Forest-BGC, a stand-level model that simulates photosynthesis and evapo-transpiration for conifer canopies, was originally implemented in Fortran and subsequenty re-implemented using SIGMA. The SIGMA version reproduces daily results and also provides a knowledge base which greatly facilitates inspection, modification and extension of Forest-BGC.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

2017-09-01

This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to 141.4 acre-1 or 55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W

2017-09-01

This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority-as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability-on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to $141.4 acre -1 or $55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

PubMed Central

Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

2017-01-01

Abstract This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk‐bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right‐truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to $141.4 acre−1 or $55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority‐based water sharing mechanism. PMID:29200529

Simulation of the Effects of Water Withdrawals, Wastewater Return Flows, and Land-Use Change on Streamflow in the Blackstone River Basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

2007-01-01

Streamflow in many parts of the Blackstone River Basin in south-central Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island is altered by water-supply withdrawals, wastewater-return flows, and land-use change associated with a growing population. Simulations from a previously developed and calibrated Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model for the basin were used to evaluate the effects of water withdrawals, wastewater-return flows, and land-use change on streamflow. Most of the simulations were done for recent (1996?2001) conditions and potential buildout conditions in the future when all available land is developed to provide a long-range assessment of the effects of possible future human activities on water resources in the basin. The effects of land-use change were evaluated by comparing the results of long-term (1960?2004) simulations with (1) undeveloped land use, (2) 1995?1999 land use, and (3) potential buildout land use at selected sites across the basin. Flow-duration curves for these land-use scenarios were similar, indicating that land-use change, as represented in the HSPF model, had little effect on flow in the major tributary streams and rivers in the basin. However, land-use change?particularly increased effective impervious area?could potentially have greater effects on the hydrology, water quality, and aquatic habitat of the smaller streams in the basin. The effects of water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows were evaluated by comparing the results of long-term simulations with (1) no withdrawals and return flows, (2) actual (measured) 1996?2001 withdrawals and wastewater-return flows, and (3) potential withdrawals and wastewater-return flows at buildout. Overall, the results indicated that water use had a much larger effect on streamflow than did land use, and that the location and magnitude of wastewater-return flows were important for lessening the effects of withdrawals on streamflow in the Blackstone River Basin. Ratios of long-term (1960?2004) simulated flows with 1996?2001 water use (representing the net effect of withdrawals and wastewater-return flows) to long-term simulated flows with no water use indicated that, for many reaches, 1996?2001 water use did not deplete flows at the 90-percent flow duration substantially compared to flows unaffected by water use. Flows generally were more severely depleted in the reaches that include surface-water supplies for the larger cities in the basin (Kettle and Tatnuck Brooks, Worcester, Mass. water supply; Quinsigamond River, Shrewsbury, Mass. water supply; Crookfall Brook, Woonsocket, R.I. water supply; and Abbott Run, Pawtucket, R.I. water supply). These reaches did not have substantial wastewater-return flows that could offset the effects of the withdrawals. In contrast, wastewater-return flows from the Upper Blackstone Wastewater Treatment Facility in Millbury, Mass. increased flows at the 90-percent flow duration in the main stem of the Blackstone River compared to no-water-use conditions. Under the assumptions used to develop the buildout scenario, nearly all of the new water withdrawals were returned to the Blackstone River Basin at municipal wastewater-treatment plants or on-site septic systems. Consequently, buildout generally had small effects on simulated low flows in the Blackstone River and most of the major tributary streams compared to flows with 1996?2001 water use. To evaluate the effects of water use on flows in the rivers and major tributary streams in the Rhode Island part of the basin in greater detail, the magnitudes of water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows in relation to simulated streamflow were calculated as unique ratios for individual HSPF subbasins, total contributing areas to HSPF subbasins, and total contributing areas to the major tributary streams. For recent conditions (1996?2001 withdrawals and 1995?1999 land use), ratios of average summer (June through September) withdrawals to the l

A simulation-based approach for designing effective field-sampling programs to evaluate contamination risk of groundwater supplies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordqvist, R.; Voss, C.I.

1996-01-01

An approach to model discrimination and network design for evaluation of groundwater contamination risk is proposed and demonstrated by application to a site in a glaciofluvial aquifer in Sweden. The approach consists of first hypothesizing alternative conceptual models of hydrogeology at the site on the basis of both quantitative data and qualitative information. The conceptual models are then expressed as two-dimensional numerical models of groundwater flow and solute transport, and model attributes controlling risk to the water supply are determined by simulation. Model predictions of response to a specific field test are made with each model that affects risk. Regions for effective measurement networks are then identified. Effective networks are those that capture sufficient information to determine which of the hypothesized models best describes the system with a minimum of measurement points. For the example site in Sweden, the network is designed such that important system parameters may be accurately estimated at the same time as model discrimination is carried out. The site in Vansbro, Sweden, consists of a water-supply well in an esker separated (by 300m) from a wood preservation and treatment area on the esker flank by only a narrow inlet of a bordering stream. Application of the above-described risk analysis shows that, of all the hydrologic controls and parameters in the groundwater system, the only factor that controls the potential migration of wood-treatment contaminants to the well is whether the inlet's bed is pervious, creating a hydraulic barrier to lateral contaminant transport. Furthermore, the analysis localizes an area near the end of the inlet wherein the most effective measurements of drawdown would be made to discriminate between a permeable and impermeable bed. The location of this optimal area is not obvious prior to application of the above methodology.

Ground-water flow and contributing areas to public-supply wells in Kingsford and Iron Mountain, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Westjohn, David B.

2000-01-01

The cities of Kingsford and Iron Mountain are in the southwestern part of Dickinson County in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Residents and businesses in these cites rely primarily on ground water from aquifers in glacial deposits. Glacial deposits generally consist of an upper terrace sand-and-gravel unit and a lower outwash sand-and-gravel unit, separated by lacustrine silt and clay and eolian silt layers. These units are not regionally continuous, and are absent in some areas. Glacial deposits overlie Precambrian bedrock units that are generally impermeable. Precambrian bedrock consists of metasedimentary (Michigamme Slate, Vulcan Iron Formation, and Randville Dolomite) and metavolcanic (Badwater Greenstone and Quinnesec Formation) rocks. Where glacial deposits are too thin to compose an aquifer usable for public or residential water supply, Precambrian bedrock is relied upon for water supply. Typically a few hundred feet of bedrock must be open to a wellbore to provide adequate water for domestic users. Ground-water flow in the glacial deposits is primarily toward the Menominee River and follows the direction of the regional topographic slope and the bedrock surface. To protect the quality of ground water, Kingsford and Iron Mountain are developing Wellhead Protection Plans to delineate areas that contribute water to public-supply wells. Because of the complexity of hydrogeology in this area and historical land-use practices, a steady-state ground-water-flow model was prepared to represent the ground-water-flow system and to delineate contributing areas to public-supply wells. Results of steady-state simulations indicate close agreement between simulated and observed water levels and between water flowing into and out of the model area. The 10-year contributing areas for Kingsford's public-supply wells encompass about 0.11 square miles and consist of elongated areas to the east of the well fields. The 10-year contributing areas for Iron Mountain's public-supply wells encompass about 0.09 square miles and consist of elongate areas to the east of the well field.

Using a Content Management System for Integrated Water Quantity, Quality and Instream Flows Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgholzer, R.; Brogan, C. O.; Scott, D.; Keys, T.

2017-12-01

With increased population and water demand, in-stream flows can become depleted by consumptive uses and dilution of permitted discharges may be compromised. Reduced flows downstream of water withdrawals may increase the violation rate of bacterial concentrations from direct deposition by livestock and wildlife. Water storage reservoirs are constructed and operated to insure more stable supplies for consumptive demands and dilution flows, however their use comes at the cost of increased evaporative losses, potential for thermal pollution, interrupted fish migration, and reduced flooding events that are critical to maintain habitat and water quality. Due to this complex interrelationship between water quantity, quality and instream habitat comprehensive multi-disciplinary models must be developed to insure long-term sustainability of water resources and to avoid conflicts between drinking water, food and energy production, and aquatic biota. The Commonwealth of Virginia funded the expansion of the Chesapeake Bay Program Phase 5 model to cover the entire state, and has been using this model to evaluate water supply permit and planning since 2009. This integrated modeling system combines a content management system (Drupal and PHP) for model input data and leverages the modularity of HSPF with the custom segmentation and parameterization routines programmed by modelers working with the Chesapeake Bay Program. The model has been applied to over 30 Virginia Water Permits, instream flows and aquatic habitat models and a Virginias 30 year water supply demand projections. Future versions will leverage the Bay Model auto-calibration routines for adding small-scale water supply and TMDL models, utilize climate change scenarios, and integrate Virginia's reservoir management modules into the Chesapeake Bay watershed model, feeding projected demand and operational changes back up to EPA models to improve the realism of future Bay-wide simulations.

Mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks given constraints in stockpile size and daily administration capacity

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Influenza viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Vaccination remains a powerful tool for preventing or mitigating influenza outbreaks. Yet, vaccine supplies and daily administration capacities are limited, even in developed countries. Understanding how such constraints can alter the mitigating effects of vaccination is a crucial part of influenza preparedness plans. Mathematical models provide tools for government and medical officials to assess the impact of different vaccination strategies and plan accordingly. However, many existing models of vaccination employ several questionable assumptions, including a rate of vaccination proportional to the population at each point in time. Methods We present a SIR-like model that explicitly takes into account vaccine supply and the number of vaccines administered per day and places data-informed limits on these parameters. We refer to this as the non-proportional model of vaccination and compare it to the proportional scheme typically found in the literature. Results The proportional and non-proportional models behave similarly for a few different vaccination scenarios. However, there are parameter regimes involving the vaccination campaign duration and daily supply limit for which the non-proportional model predicts smaller epidemics that peak later, but may last longer, than those of the proportional model. We also use the non-proportional model to predict the mitigating effects of variably timed vaccination campaigns for different levels of vaccination coverage, using specific constraints on daily administration capacity. Conclusions The non-proportional model of vaccination is a theoretical improvement that provides more accurate predictions of the mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks than the proportional model. In addition, parameters such as vaccine supply and daily administration limit can be easily adjusted to simulate conditions in developed and developing nations with a wide variety of financial and medical resources. Finally, the model can be used by government and medical officials to create customized pandemic preparedness plans based on the supply and administration constraints of specific communities. PMID:21806800

Large-Scale Water Resources Management within the Framework of GLOWA-Danube - Part B: The Water Supply Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickel, D.; Barthel, R.; Schmid, C.; Braun, J.

2003-04-01

The research project GLOWA-Danube, financed by the German Federal Government, investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global climatic change. Its concrete aim is to build a fully integrated decision support tool that combines the competence of eleven different institutes in domains covering all major aspects governing the water cycle - from the formation of clouds to groundwater flow patterns to the behaviour of the water consumer. The research group "Water Supply" at the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering (IWS), Universitaet Stuttgart, has the central task of creating an agent-based model of the water supply sector. The Water Supply model will act as a link between the various physical models determining water quality and availability on the one hand and the actors models determining water demand on the other, which together form the tool DANUBIA. Ultimately, with the help of scenario testing, the water supply model will indicate the ability of the water supply system in the Upper Danube catchment to adapt to changing boundary conditions using different management approaches. The specific aim of the Water Supply model is the creation of a model which is not only able to simulate the present day system of water extraction, treatment and distribution but also its development and change with time. As most changes to the system are brought about by decisions made by relevant actors in the field of water management or their behaviour (in response to political and economic boundary conditions, changes in water demand or water quality, advances in technology etc.), the use of agent-based modelling was chosen, whereby an agent is seen as a computer system (in our case representing a human or group of humans) which is aware of its environment, has defined objectives and is able to act independently in order to meet these objectives. Whereas agent-based modelling has received much attention over the past decades, the use of this type of modelling for water supply systems is something very new. The initial step is the development of a conceptual water supply model (using JAVA), in which both the model boundaries and area of expertise as well as parameters to be exchanged between the Water Supply model and other models are defined. The data required to create model for such a large area is not available from the authorities, common interest organisations or in the public statistics. In order to gain access to more specific information regarding individual water supply companies, the Water Supply group is currently carrying out a wide-spread questionnaire addressed to all water supply companies in the GLOWA-Danube model area - well over 1000 in total in Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Austria and Switzerland. The questionnaire contains questions pertaining to the two distinct fields, "economics and pricing" and "technical aspects", and aims at gathering information regarding the present day situation of the water supply system, the developments over the past 10 years as well as planned developments for the immediate future. Later, the focus will shift towards the stakeholders from the field of water resources management. A catalogue of decision-making rules will be prepared as a basis for discussion and will be debated with the relevant stakeholders. These rules will provide the basis for decision-making algorithms which will allow model agents to respond to their environment, communicate with one anther and behave in a goal-oriented manner to bring about change in the water supply system in response to changing conditions with regard to the climate, water quality, political and social boundary conditions, and changing demand.

Optimal control of diarrhea transmission in a flood evacuation zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erwina, N.; Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.

2014-03-01

Evacuation of residents and diarrhea disease outbreak in evacuation zone have become serious problem that frequently happened during flood periods. Limited clean water supply and infrastructure in evacuation zone contribute to a critical spread of diarrhea. Transmission of diarrhea disease can be reduced by controlling clean water supply and treating diarrhea patients properly. These treatments require significant amount of budget, which may not be fulfilled in the fields. In his paper, transmission of diarrhea disease in evacuation zone using SIRS model is presented as control optimum problem with clean water supply and rate of treated patients as input controls. Existence and stability of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis are investigated analytically for constant input controls. Optimum clean water supply and rate of treatment are found using optimum control technique. Optimal results for transmission of diarrhea and the corresponding controls during the period of observation are simulated numerically. The optimum result shows that transmission of diarrhea disease can be controlled with proper combination of water supply and rate of treatment within allowable budget.

On the brine drainage and algal uptake controls of the nutrient supply to the sea ice interior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vancoppenolle, M.; Goosse, H.; de Montety, A.; Fichefet, T.; Tison, J.-L.

2009-04-01

Sea ice ecosystems are important components of the biogeochemical cycles (including carbon) and hence have a potential impact on climate. They are characterized by large stocks of micro-algae. Those algae (mostly diatoms) live in liquid inclusions of saline brine, which are encased within the solid ice matrix and require sustained nutrient supply to grow. In this study, we investigate the interactions between nutrients, brine motion and algal growth, using a one-dimensional (1D) sea ice model. The model includes (i) a classical formulation for snow and ice thermodynamics with explicit, reformulated brine physics and (ii) an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one single nutrient, namely dissolved silica (DSi), which stocks are reduced by a prescribed primary production. DSi is considered as a passive tracer dissolved within brine following fluid motion. The brine flow regime (advective, diffusive or turbulent) is computed as a function of environmental ice conditions. In winter, a Rayleigh number proposed by Notz and Worster (2008) is used to differentiate diffusion and convection. Ice salinity and DSi concentrations within the ice are solutions of 1D advection-diffusion equations over the variable volume brine network domain. The model is configured for a typical year of seasonal Weddell Sea ice. The simulated vertical salinity and tracer profiles as well as ice-ocean salt fluxes realistically agree with observations. Complex bio-physical interactions are simulated by the model. Analysis highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice (gravity drainage), mixing highly saline, nutrient-depleted brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. Hence, gravity drainage rejects salt to the ocean and provides nutrients to the ice interior. In turn, primary production and brine convection act synergetically to form a nutrient pump, which enhances the net ocean-to-ice DSi flux by 20-115%, compared to an abiotic situation. The other important simulated processes are winter and spring surface flooding of seawater which supplies nutrients near the ice surface, and melt water percolation which - if present in reality - would tend to flush nutrients back to the ocean in summer. The physical background for sea ice tracers developed here is general and could be used to simulate other sea ice tracers (e.g., dissolved organic matter, isotopes, gases, radio-nuclides, ...), constituting an improved modelling strategy for sea ice brine and ecosystem dynamics.

A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

2015-05-01

A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California

PubMed Central

Kiparsky, Michael; Joyce, Brian; Purkey, David; Young, Charles

2014-01-01

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario. PMID:24465455

Integrated water flow model and modflow-farm process: A comparison of theory, approaches, and features of two integrated hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dogrul, Emin C.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Kadir, Tariq; Chung, Francis

2016-01-01

Effective modeling of conjunctive use of surface and subsurface water resources requires simulation of land use-based root zone and surface flow processes as well as groundwater flows, streamflows, and their interactions. Recently, two computer models developed for this purpose, the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) from the California Department of Water Resources and the MODFLOW with Farm Process (MF-FMP) from the US Geological Survey, have been applied to complex basins such as the Central Valley of California. As both IWFM and MFFMP are publicly available for download and can be applied to other basins, there is a need to objectively compare the main approaches and features used in both models. This paper compares the concepts, as well as the method and simulation features of each hydrologic model pertaining to groundwater, surface water, and landscape processes. The comparison is focused on the integrated simulation of water demand and supply, water use, and the flow between coupled hydrologic processes. The differences in the capabilities and features of these two models could affect the outcome and types of water resource problems that can be simulated.

An automated procedure for developing hybrid computer simulations of turbofan engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szuch, J. R.; Krosel, S. M.

1980-01-01

A systematic, computer-aided, self-documenting methodology for developing hybrid computer simulations of turbofan engines is presented. The methodology makes use of a host program that can run on a large digital computer and a machine-dependent target (hybrid) program. The host program performs all of the calculations and date manipulations needed to transform user-supplied engine design information to a form suitable for the hybrid computer. The host program also trims the self contained engine model to match specified design point information. A test case is described and comparisons between hybrid simulation and specified engine performance data are presented.

Dynamic Simulation of a Periodic 10 K Sorption Cryocooler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhandari, P.; Rodriguez, J.; Bard, S.; Wade, L.

1994-01-01

A transient thermal simulation model has been developed to simulate the dynamic performance of a multiple-stage 10 K sorption cryocooler for spacecraft sensor cooling applications that require periodic quick-cooldown (under 2 minutes) , negligible vibration, low power consumption, and long life (5 to 10 years). The model was specifically designed to represent the Brilliant Eyes Ten-Kelvin Sorption Cryocooler Experiment (BETSCE), but it can be adapted to represent other sorption cryocooler systems as well. The model simulates the heat transfer, mass transfer, and thermodynamic processes in the cryostat and the sorbent beds for the entire refrigeration cycle, and includes the transient effects of variable hydrogen supply pressures due to expansion and overflow of hydrogen during the cooldown operation. The paper describes model limitations and simplifying assumptions, with estimates of errors induced by them, and presents comparisons of performance predictions with ground experiments. An important benefit of the model is its ability to predict performance sensitivities to variations of key design and operational parameters. The insights thus obtained are expected to lead to higher efficiencies and lower weights for future designs.

Computer simulation of thermal and fluid systems for MIUS integration and subsystems test /MIST/ laboratory. [Modular Integrated Utility System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rochelle, W. C.; Liu, D. K.; Nunnery, W. J., Jr.; Brandli, A. E.

1975-01-01

This paper describes the application of the SINDA (systems improved numerical differencing analyzer) computer program to simulate the operation of the NASA/JSC MIUS integration and subsystems test (MIST) laboratory. The MIST laboratory is designed to test the integration capability of the following subsystems of a modular integrated utility system (MIUS): (1) electric power generation, (2) space heating and cooling, (3) solid waste disposal, (4) potable water supply, and (5) waste water treatment. The SINDA/MIST computer model is designed to simulate the response of these subsystems to externally impressed loads. The computer model determines the amount of recovered waste heat from the prime mover exhaust, water jacket and oil/aftercooler and from the incinerator. This recovered waste heat is used in the model to heat potable water, for space heating, absorption air conditioning, waste water sterilization, and to provide for thermal storage. The details of the thermal and fluid simulation of MIST including the system configuration, modes of operation modeled, SINDA model characteristics and the results of several analyses are described.

Modeling Integrated Water-User Decisions with Intermittent Supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, J. R.; Rosenberg, D.

2006-12-01

We present an economic-engineering method to estimate urban water use demands with intermittent water supplies. A two-stage, probabilistic optimization formulation includes a wide variety of water supply enhancement and conservation actions that individual households can adopt to meet multiple water quality uses with uncertain water availability. We embed the optimization in Monte-Carlo simulations to show aggregate effects at a utility (citywide) scale for a population of user conditions and decisions. Parametric analysis provides derivations of supply curves to subsidize conservation, demand responses to alternative pricing, and customer willingness-to-pay to avoid shortages. Results show a good empirical fit for the average and distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Additional outputs give likely market penetration rates for household conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies required to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, market, and finance conservation programs and interpret a demand curve with block pricing.

VHDL-AMS modelling and simulation of a planar electrostatic micromotor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endemaño, A.; Fourniols, J. Y.; Camon, H.; Marchese, A.; Muratet, S.; Bony, F.; Dunnigan, M.; Desmulliez, M. P. Y.; Overton, G.

2003-09-01

System level simulation results of a planar electrostatic micromotor, based on analytical models of the static and dynamic torque behaviours, are presented. A planar variable capacitance (VC) electrostatic micromotor designed, fabricated and tested at LAAS (Toulouse) in 1995 is simulated using the high level language VHDL-AMS (VHSIC (very high speed integrated circuits) hardware description language-analog mixed signal). The analytical torque model is obtained by first calculating the overlaps and capacitances between different electrodes based on a conformal mapping transformation. Capacitance values in the order of 10-16 F and torque values in the order of 10-11 N m have been calculated in agreement with previous measurements and simulations from this type of motor. A dynamic model has been developed for the motor by calculating the inertia coefficient and estimating the friction-coefficient-based values calculated previously for other similar devices. Starting voltage results obtained from experimental measurement are in good agreement with our proposed simulation model. Simulation results of starting voltage values, step response, switching response and continuous operation of the micromotor, based on the dynamic model of the torque, are also presented. Four VHDL-AMS blocks were created, validated and simulated for power supply, excitation control, micromotor torque creation and micromotor dynamics. These blocks can be considered as the initial phase towards the creation of intellectual property (IP) blocks for microsystems in general and electrostatic micromotors in particular.

A mutant phosphofructokinase produces a futile cycle during gluconeogenesis in Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Torres, J C; Guixé, V; Babul, J

1997-11-01

Strains of Escherichia coli bearing different forms of phosphofructokinase were used to assess the occurrence of futile cycling in cell resuspensions supplied with glycerol as gluconeogenic carbon source. A model was used to simulate results of different kinds of experiments for different levels of futile cycle. The main predictions of the model were experimentally confirmed in a strain with a mutant phosphofructokinase-2 (phosphofructokinase-2*) which is not inhibited by MgATP. The intracellular fructose 1, 6-bisphosphate concentration reaches significantly higher levels in the mutant-bearing strain than in strains with either phosphofructokinase-1 or -2. Also, this strain showed a higher rate and level of in vivo radioactive labelling of fructose 1, 6-bisphosphate, from a trace of [U-14C]glucose supplied during gluconeogenesis, indicating higher kinase activity in these conditions. Cell resuspensions of the mutant-bearing strain produced higher levels of radioactively labelled CO2 when supplied with [U-14C]glycerol as the only carbon source. Simultaneously, fewer glycerol carbons were incorporated into HClO4-insoluble macromolecules. Finally, radioactive CO2 output was measured in resuspensions supplied with glycerol as the major carbon source with traces of either [1-14C]glucose or [6-14C]glucose. It was found that, whereas in the strains with either of the wild-type phosphofructokinase isoenzymes, radioactive CO2 output from [1-14C]glucose was higher than with [6-14C]glucose, the reverse is found for the strain with phosphofructokinase-2*. This result also agrees with the corresponding prediction of the model. Using the radioactivity flux rates predicted by the model, an explanation linking the futile cycle to the differential labelling of CO2 is advanced. Finally, on the basis of these results it is proposed that strains bearing phosphofructokinase-2* sustain higher rates of futile cycling during gluconeogenesis than strains bearing either of the wild-type isoforms of phosphofructokinase. The kinetic equations and parameter values used for the model simulations are given in Supplementary Publication SUP 50183 (8 pages), which has been deposited at the British Library Document Supply Centre, Boston Spa, Wetherby, West Yorkshire LS23 7BQ, U.K., from whom copies can be obtained on the terms indicated in Biochem. J. (1997) 321, 8.

Modeling the resilience of urban water supply using the capital portfolio approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, E. H.; Klammler, H.; Borchardt, D.; Frank, K.; Jawitz, J. W.; Rao, P. S.

2017-12-01

The dynamics of global change challenge the resilience of cities in a multitude of ways, including pressures resulting from population and consumption changes, production patterns, climate and landuse change, as well as environmental hazards. Responses to these challenges aim to improve urban resilience, but lack an adequate understanding of 1) the elements and processes that lead to the resilience of coupled natural-human-engineered systems, 2) the complex dynamics emerging from the interaction of these elements, including the availability of natural resources, infrastructure, and social capital, which may lead to 3) unintended consequences resulting from management responses. We propose a new model that simulates the coupled dynamics of five types of capitals (water resources, infrastructure, finances, political capital /management, and social adaptive capacity) that are necessary for the provision of water supply to urban residents. We parameterize the model based on data for a case study city, which is limited by constraints in water availability, financial resources, and faced with degrading infrastructure, as well as population increase, which challenge the urban management institutions. Our model analyzes the stability of the coupled system, and produces time series of the capital dynamics to quantify its resilience as a result of the portfolio of capitals available to usher adaptive capacity and to secure water supply subjected to multiple recurring shocks. We apply our model to one real urban water supply system located in an arid environment, as well as a wide range of hypothetical case studies, which demonstrates its applicability to various types of cities, and its ability to quantify and compare water supply resilience. The analysis of a range of urban water systems provides valuable insights into guiding more sustainable responses for maintaining the resilience of urban water supply around the globe, by showing how unsustainable responses risk the loss of resilience. We suggest that the same model can be generalized to represent other types of urban infrastructure service systems with different parameterizations.

Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

2016-05-01

Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

SPICE modelling of a coupled piezoelectric-bimetal heat engine for autonomous Wireless Sensor Nodes (WSN) power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boughaleb, J.; Monfray, S.; Vine, G.; Cottinet, P. J.; Arnaud, A.; Boisseau, S.; Duret, A. B.; Quenard, S.; Puscasu, O.; Maitre, C.; Trochut, S.; Hasbani, F.; Di Gilio, T.; Heinrich, V.; Urard, P.; Grasset, J. C.; Boeuf, F.; Guyomar, D.; Skotnicki, T.

2014-11-01

This paper deals with an electrical modelling and optimization of a thermal energy harvester dedicated to power autonomous systems. Such devices based on bimetal strips and piezoceramics turn thermal gradients into electricity by a two-step conversion mechanism. This work focuses first on a demonstration of a ST-WSN (GreenNet demonstration platform) supplied by the harvester to validate, for the first time, the harvesters viability. That demonstration focuses attention on the need for an optimized power management circuit for piezoelectric generators able to reach output voltages up to 20 V. The work deals then with the proposal of an equivalent lumped element model of the piezoelectric transducer with its SPICE implementation to enable the optimization of a dedicated power management circuit based on the Pulsed Synchronous Charge Extractor (PSCE). Simulations using the SPICE model and the power management circuit lead to an increased extracted power by 144%.

Pharmaceutical industry and trade liberalization using computable general equilibrium model.

PubMed

Barouni, M; Ghaderi, H; Banouei, Aa

2012-01-01

Computable general equilibrium models are known as a powerful instrument in economic analyses and widely have been used in order to evaluate trade liberalization effects. The purpose of this study was to provide the impacts of trade openness on pharmaceutical industry using CGE model. Using a computable general equilibrium model in this study, the effects of decrease in tariffs as a symbol of trade liberalization on key variables of Iranian pharmaceutical products were studied. Simulation was performed via two scenarios in this study. The first scenario was the effect of decrease in tariffs of pharmaceutical products as 10, 30, 50, and 100 on key drug variables, and the second was the effect of decrease in other sectors except pharmaceutical products on vital and economic variables of pharmaceutical products. The required data were obtained and the model parameters were calibrated according to the social accounting matrix of Iran in 2006. The results associated with simulation demonstrated that the first scenario has increased import, export, drug supply to markets and household consumption, while import, export, supply of product to market, and household consumption of pharmaceutical products would averagely decrease in the second scenario. Ultimately, society welfare would improve in all scenarios. We presents and synthesizes the CGE model which could be used to analyze trade liberalization policy issue in developing countries (like Iran), and thus provides information that policymakers can use to improve the pharmacy economics.

Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

2017-12-01

Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

Use of a ground-water flow model to delineate contributing areas to the Puchack Well Field, Pennsauken township and vicinity, Camden county, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Daryll A.; Watt, Martha K.

2005-01-01

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) Well Head Protection Program, developed in response to the 1986 Federal Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments, requires delineation of Well Head Protection Areas (WHPA's), commonly called contributing areas, for all public and non-community water-supply wells in New Jersey. Typically, WHPA's for public community water-supply wells in New Jersey are delineated using a two-dimensional ground-water flow model incorporating the regional hydraulic gradient; however, NJDEP guidelines allow for the use of a three-dimensional flow model to delineate contributing areas to wells in complex hydrogeologic settings. The Puchack well field in Pennsauken Township, Camden County, N.J., is an area of strong hydraulic connection between the Lower aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system and the Delaware River. Interactions among and within the public-supply well fields in the area are complex. To delineate the contributing area to the Puchack well field, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, developed an 11-layer ground-water flow model of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the Pennsauken Township area to simulate flow in the vicinity of the well field. The model incorporates the interaction between the aquifer system and the Delaware River, and includes boundary flows from an existing regional model of the Camden area. Recharge used in the model ranged from 4.5 to 14 inches per year, and horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranged from 50 to 250 feet per day. Values of vertical hydraulic conductivity ranging from 0.001 to 0.5 feet per day were assigned to zones created on the basis of variations in hydrogeologic conditions observed in geophysical logs from wells. A steady-state simulation was used to calibrate the model to synoptic water-level data collected in March 1998. Near the Puchack well field, simulated heads generally were within 1 foot of the measured heads in both the Middle and Lower aquifers. Simulated water-level differences across the confining units at most of the nested wells were within ? 0.5 feet of the differences calculated from measured water levels. The existing flow model was modified to meet NJDEP guidelines for delineating contributing areas in complex hydrogeologic settings. These modifications included rediscretizing the model grid to a finer grid and preparing the water-use data set for use in the rediscretized model. The contributing area to the Puchack well field was delineated by means of particle tracking. An uncertainty analysis was conducted in which 36 model-input parameters were both increased and decreased until the resulting change in simulated heads exceeded the model-calibration criterion of ? 5 feet at any model cell. Porosity most affected the size and shape of the contributing area. The distribution of withdrawals at the Morris/Delair well field and variations in recharge affected both the size and shape of contributing area to the Puchack well field and the source of water to the Puchack wells. The results of the uncertainty analysis were combined to determine the 'aggregate' contributing area to the Puchack well field--a composite of areas on the land surface that contributed flow to the Puchack well field in less than 12 years in any uncertainty simulation. The shape of the aggregate contributing area was most similar to that associated with a reduction in porosity, which indirectly affected the size and shape of the contributing areas by changing travel time.

Do Financial Incentives Influence GPs' Decisions to Do After-hours Work? A Discrete Choice Labour Supply Model.

PubMed

Broadway, Barbara; Kalb, Guyonne; Li, Jinhu; Scott, Anthony

2017-12-01

This paper analyses doctors' supply of after-hours care (AHC), and how it is affected by personal and family circumstances as well as the earnings structure. We use detailed survey data from a large sample of Australian General Practitioners (GPs) to estimate a structural, discrete choice model of labour supply and AHC. This allows us to jointly model GPs' decisions on the number of daytime-weekday working hours and the probability of providing AHC. We simulate GPs' labour supply responses to an increase in hourly earnings, both in a daytime-weekday setting and for AHC. GPs increase their daytime-weekday working hours if their hourly earnings in this setting increase, but only to a very small extent. GPs are somewhat more likely to provide AHC if their hourly earnings in that setting increase, but again, the effect is very small and only evident in some subgroups. Moreover, higher earnings in weekday-daytime practice reduce the probability of providing AHC, particularly for men. Increasing GPs' earnings appears to be at best relatively ineffective in encouraging increased provision of AHC and may even prove harmful if incentives are not well targeted. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Geohydrology, water quality, and simulation of ground-water flow in the vicinity of a former waste-oil refinery near Westville, Indiana, 1997-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duwelius, Richard F.; Yeskis, Douglas J.; Wilson, John T.; Robinson, Bret A.

2002-01-01

A three-dimensional, four layer groundwater- flow model was constructed and calibrated to match ground-water levels and streamflow measured during December 1997. The model was used to simulate possible mechanisms of contaminant release, the effect of increased pumpage from water-supply wells, and pumping at the leading edge of the plume as a possible means of remediation. Based on simulation of threewaste-oil lagoons, a vertical hydraulic conductivity of 0.2 feet per day was required to move contaminants into the bottom layer of the model at a constant leakage rate of about 98 gallons per minute. Simulations of a disposal well in layer 3 of the model indicated an injection rate of 50 gallons per minute was necessary to spread contaminants vertically in the aquifer. Simulated pumping rates of about 300 and 1,000 gallons per minute were required for watersupply wells at the Town of Westville and the Westville Correctional Facility to draw water from the plume of 1,4-dioxane. Simulated pumping from hypothetical wells at the leading edge of the plume indicated that three wells, each pumping 25 gallons per minute from model layer 3, would capture the plume of 1,4-dioxane.

Multiobjective analysis of a public wellfield using artificial neural networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coppola, E.A.; Szidarovszky, F.; Davis, D.; Spayd, S.; Poulton, M.M.; Roman, E.

2007-01-01

As competition for increasingly scarce ground water resources grows, many decision makers may come to rely upon rigorous multiobjective techniques to help identify appropriate and defensible policies, particularly when disparate stakeholder groups are involved. In this study, decision analysis was conducted on a public water supply wellfield to balance water supply needs with well vulnerability to contamination from a nearby ground water contaminant plume. With few alternative water sources, decision makers must balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing water supply volume from noncontaminated wells while minimizing their vulnerability to contamination from the plume. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed with simulation data from a numerical ground water flow model developed for the study area. The ANN-derived state transition equations were embedded into a multiobjective optimization model, from which the Pareto frontier or trade-off curve between water supply and wellfield vulnerability was identified. Relative preference values and power factors were assigned to the three stakeholders, namely the company whose waste contaminated the aquifer, the community supplied by the wells, and the water utility company that owns and operates the wells. A compromise pumping policy that effectively balances the two conflicting objectives in accordance with the preferences of the three stakeholder groups was then identified using various distance-based methods. ?? 2006 National Ground Water Association.

Modeling the Impacts of EU Bioenergy Demand on the Forest Sector of the Southeast U.S.

Treesearch

Rafal Chudy; Robert C. Abt; Frederick W. Cubbage; Ragnar Jonsson; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2013-01-01

The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased substantially recently. This research analyzes the effects of EU biomass imports from the Southeast U.S. on Southeast U.S. timber prices, inventories and production and on EU imports of feedstock. The SRTS (sub-regional timber supply model) was used to simulate market...

How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study assesses the ability of 21 crop models to capture the impact of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO218 ]) on maize yield and water use as measured in a 2-year Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment experiment conducted at the Thünen Institute in Braunschweig, Germany (Manderscheid et al. 2014). D...

Investigation of the Constitutive Model Used in Nonlinear, Incremental Structural Analyses.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-06-01

package, ABAQUS , was chosen for performing NISA studies in part because user supplied subroutines could be used for constitutive relationships. After a...loading and the shrinkage and thermally induced strains determined from control specimens. The majority of creep tests are uniaxial compressive tests...Kennedy, and Perry (1970). Description of FE Model The tests were simulated using the finite element (FE) program ABAQUS and the aging viscoelastic

Recovery of Ground-Water Levels From 1988 to 2003 and Analysis of Potential Water-Supply Management Options in Critical Area 1, East-Central New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spitz, Frederick J.; Watt, Martha K.; dePaul, Vincent T.

2008-01-01

Water levels in four confined aquifers in the New Jersey Coastal Plain within Water Supply Critical Area 1 have recovered as a result of reductions in ground-water withdrawals initiated by the State in the late 1980s. The aquifers are the Wenonah-Mount Laurel, the Upper and Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy, and Englishtown aquifer system. Because of increased water demand due to increased development in Monmouth, Ocean, and Middlesex Counties, five base and nine alternate management models were designed for the four aquifers to evaluate the effects resulting from potential reallocation of part of the Critical Area 1 reductions in withdrawals. The change in withdrawals and associated water-level changes in the aquifers for 1988-2003 are discussed. Generally, withdrawals decreased 25 to 30 Mgal/d (million gallons per day), and water levels increased 0 to 80 ft (feet). The Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) ground-water-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to simulate ground-water flow and optimize withdrawals using the Ground-Water Management Process (GWM) for MODFLOW. Results of the model were used to evaluate the effects of several possible water-supply management options in order to provide the information to water managers. The optimization method, which provides a means to set constraints that support mandated hydrologic conditions, then determine the maximum withdrawals that meet the constraints, is a more cost-effective approach than simulating a range of withdrawals to determine the effects on the aquifer system. The optimization method is particularly beneficial for a regional-scale study of this kind because of the large number of wells to be evaluated. Before the model was run, a buffer analysis was done to define an area with no additional withdrawals that minimizes changes in simulated streamflow in aquifer outcrop areas and simulated movement of ground water toward the wells from areas of possible high chloride concentrations in the northern and southern parts of the Critical Area. Five base water-supply management models were developed. Each management model has an objective function, decision variables, and constraints. Two of the five management models were test cases: clean slate option and reallocation from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and Englishtown aquifer system to small volume wells for potable water use. Nine other models also were developed as part of a trade-off analysis between withdrawal amounts and constraint values. The 14 management models included current (2003) or regularly spaced well locations with variations on the constraints of ground-water head, drawdown, velocity at the 250-mg/L (milligram per liter) isochlor, and withdrawal rate. Results of each management model were evaluated in terms of withdrawals, heads, saltwater intrusion, and source of water by aquifer. Each trade-off curve was defined by using six to nine separate management model runs. Results of the management models designed in this study indicate that a withdrawal reallocation of 5 to 20 Mgal/d within Critical Area 1 would increase the area of heads below -30 ft and the velocity at the 250-mg/L isochlor by up to 4 times that of the simulated 2003 results; the range of values are 0 to 521 square miles and 1 to 20 feet per year, respectively. The increase in area of heads below -30 ft was larger in the Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer than in other aquifers because that area was negligible in 2003. The range of modeled withdrawals is closely tied to management-model design. Interpretation of management model results is provided as well as a discussion of limitations.

Exploring the evolutionary mechanism of complex supply chain systems using evolving hypergraphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Sun, Shiwei; Liu, Han

2018-01-01

A new evolutionary model is proposed to describe the characteristics and evolution pattern of supply chain systems using evolving hypergraphs, in which nodes represent enterprise entities while hyperedges represent the relationships among diverse trades. The nodes arrive at the system in accordance with a Poisson process, with the evolving process incorporating the addition of new nodes, linking of old nodes, and rewiring of links. Grounded in the Poisson process theory and continuum theory, the stationary average hyperdegree distribution is shown to follow a shifted power law (SPL), and the theoretical predictions are consistent with the results of numerical simulations. Testing the impact of parameters on the model yields a positive correlation between hyperdegree and degree. The model also uncovers macro characteristics of the relationships among enterprises due to the microscopic interactions among individuals.

An application of sedimentation simulation in Tahe oilfield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tingting, He; Lei, Zhao; Xin, Tan; Dongxu, He

2017-12-01

The braided river delta develops in Triassic low oil formation in the block 9 of Tahe oilfield, but its sedimentation evolution process is unclear. By using sedimentation simulation technology, sedimentation process and distribution of braided river delta are studied based on the geological parameters including sequence stratigraphic division, initial sedimentation environment, relative lake level change and accommodation change, source supply and sedimentary transport pattern. The simulation result shows that the error rate between strata thickness of simulation and actual strata thickness is small, and the single well analysis result of simulation is highly consistent with the actual analysis, which can prove that the model is reliable. The study area belongs to braided river delta retrogradation evolution process, which provides favorable basis for fine reservoir description and prediction.

On the required complexity of vehicle dynamic models for use in simulation-based highway design.

PubMed

Brown, Alexander; Brennan, Sean

2014-06-01

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive project whose goal is to identify roadway design practices that maximize the margin of safety between the friction supply and friction demand. This study is motivated by the concern for increased accident rates on curves with steep downgrades, geometries that contain features that interact in all three dimensions - planar curves, grade, and superelevation. This complexity makes the prediction of vehicle skidding quite difficult, particularly for simple simulation models that have historically been used for road geometry design guidance. To obtain estimates of friction margin, this study considers a range of vehicle models, including: a point-mass model used by the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) design policy, a steady-state "bicycle model" formulation that considers only per-axle forces, a transient formulation of the bicycle model commonly used in vehicle stability control systems, and finally, a full multi-body simulation (CarSim and TruckSim) regularly used in the automotive industry for high-fidelity vehicle behavior prediction. The presence of skidding--the friction demand exceeding supply--was calculated for each model considering a wide range of vehicles and road situations. The results indicate that the most complicated vehicle models are generally unnecessary for predicting skidding events. However, there are specific maneuvers, namely braking events within lane changes and curves, which consistently predict the worst-case friction margins across all models. This suggests that any vehicle model used for roadway safety analysis should include the effects of combined cornering and braking. The point-mass model typically used by highway design professionals may not be appropriate to predict vehicle behavior on high-speed curves during braking in low-friction situations. However, engineers can use the results of this study to help select the appropriate vehicle dynamic model complexity to use in the highway design process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating Sources of Superstorm Plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching

2008-01-01

We evaluated the contributions to magnetospheric pressure (ring current) of the solar wind, polar wind, auroral wind, and plasmaspheric wind, with the surprising result that the main phase pressure is dominated by plasmaspheric protons. We used global simulation fields from the LFM single fluid ideal MHD model. We embedded the Comprehensive Ring Current Model within it, driven by the LFM transpolar potential, and supplied with plasmas at its boundary including solar wind protons, polar wind protons, auroral wind O+, and plasmaspheric protons. We included auroral outflows and acceleration driven by the LFM ionospheric boundary condition, including parallel ion acceleration driven by upward currents. Our plasmasphere model runs within the CRCM and is driven by it. Ionospheric sources were treated using our Global Ion Kinetics code based on full equations of motion. This treatment neglects inertial loading and pressure exerted by the ionospheric plasmas, and will be superceded by multifluid simulations that include those effects. However, these simulations provide new insights into the respective role of ionospheric sources in storm-time magnetospheric dynamics.

[Medical human resources planning in Europe: A literature review of the forecasting models].

PubMed

Benahmed, N; Deliège, D; De Wever, A; Pirson, M

2018-02-01

Healthcare is a labor-intensive sector in which half of the expenses are dedicated to human resources. Therefore, policy makers, at national and internal levels, attend to the number of practicing professionals and the skill mix. This paper aims to analyze the European forecasting model for supply and demand of physicians. To describe the forecasting tools used for physician planning in Europe, a grey literature search was done in the OECD, WHO, and European Union libraries. Electronic databases such as Pubmed, Medine, Embase and Econlit were also searched. Quantitative methods for forecasting medical supply rely mainly on stock-and-flow simulations and less often on systemic dynamics. Parameters included in forecasting models exhibit wide variability for data availability and quality. The forecasting of physician needs is limited to healthcare consumption and rarely considers overall needs and service targets. Besides quantitative methods, horizon scanning enables an evaluation of the changes in supply and demand in an uncertain future based on qualitative techniques such as semi-structured interviews, Delphi Panels, or focus groups. Finally, supply and demand forecasting models should be regularly updated. Moreover, post-hoc analyze is also needed but too rarely implemented. Medical human resource planning in Europe is inconsistent. Political implementation of the results of forecasting projections is essential to insure efficient planning. However, crucial elements such as mobility data between Member States are poorly understood, impairing medical supply regulation policies. These policies are commonly limited to training regulations, while horizontal and vertical substitution is less frequently taken into consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A methodology for evacuation design for urban areas: theoretical aspects and experimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, F.; Vitetta, A.

2009-04-01

This paper proposes an unifying approach for the simulation and design of a transportation system under conditions of incoming safety and/or security. Safety and security are concerned with threats generated by very different factors and which, in turn, generate emergency conditions, such as the 9/11, Madrid and London attacks, the Asian tsunami, and the Katrina hurricane; just considering the last five years. In transportation systems, when exogenous events happen and there is a sufficient interval time between the instant when the event happens and the instant when the event has effect on the population, it is possible to reduce the negative effects with the population evacuation. For this event in every case it is possible to prepare with short and long term the evacuation. For other event it is possible also to plan the real time evacuation inside the general risk methodology. The development of models for emergency conditions in transportation systems has not received much attention in the literature. The main findings in this area are limited to only a few public research centres and private companies. In general, there is no systematic analysis of the risk theory applied in the transportation system. Very often, in practice, the vulnerability and exposure in the transportation system are considered as similar variables, or in other worse cases the exposure variables are treated as vulnerability variables. Models and algorithms specified and calibrated in ordinary conditions cannot be directly applied in emergency conditions under the usual hypothesis considered. This paper is developed with the following main objectives: (a) to formalize the risk problem with clear diversification (for the consequences) in the definition of the vulnerability and exposure in a transportation system; thus the book offers improvements over consolidated quantitative risk analysis models, especially transportation risk analysis models (risk assessment); (b) to formalize a system of models for evacuation simulation; (c) to calibrate and validate system of model for evacuation simulation from a real experimentation. In relation to the proposed objectives in this paper: (a) a general framework about risk analysis is reported in the first part, with specific methods and models to analyze urban transportation system performances in emergency conditions when exogenous phenomena occur and for the specification of the risk function; (b) a formulation of the general evacuation problem in the standard simulation context of "what if" approach is specified in the second part with reference to the model considered for the simulation of transportation system in ordinary condition; (c) a set of models specified in the second part are calibrated and validated from a real experimentation in the third part. The experimentation was developed in the central business district of an Italian village and about 1000 inhabitants were evacuated, in order to construct a complete data-base. Our experiment required that socioeconomic information (population, number employed, public buildings, schools, etc.) and ‎transport supply characteristics (infrastructures, etc.) be measured before and during experimentation. The real data of evacuation were recorded with 30 video cameras for laboratory analysis. The results are divided into six strictly connected tasks: Demand models; Supply and supply-demand interaction models for users; Simulation of refuge areas for users; Design of path choice models for emergency vehicles; Pedestrian outflow models in a building; Planning process and guidelines.

Simulations of Groundwater Flow and Particle Tracking Analysis in the Area Contributing Recharge to a Public-Supply Well near Tampa, Florida, 2002-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandall, Christy A.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Katz, Brian G.; Metz, Patricia A.; McBride, W. Scott; Berndt, Marian P.

2009-01-01

Shallow ground water in the north-central Tampa Bay region, Florida, is affected by elevated nitrate concentrations, the presence of volatile organic compounds, and pesticides as a result of groundwater development and intensive urban land use. The region relies primarily on groundwater for drinking-water supplies. Sustainability of groundwater quality for public supply requires monitoring and understanding of the mechanisms controlling the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination. A single public-supply well was selected for intensive study based on the need to evaluate the dominant processes affecting the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Upper Floridan aquifer in the City of Temple Terrace near Tampa, Florida, and the presence of a variety of chemical constituents in water from the well. A network of 29 monitoring wells was installed, and water and sediment samples were collected within the area contributing recharge to the selected public-supply well to support a detailed analysis of physical and chemical conditions and processes affecting the water chemistry in the well. A three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to evaluate the age of groundwater reaching the well and to test hypotheses on the vulnerability of the well to nonpoint source input of nitrate. Particle tracking data were used to calculate environmental tracer concentrations of tritium and sulfur hexafluoride and to calibrate traveltimes and compute flow paths and advective travel times in the model area. The traveltime of particles reaching the selected public-supply well ranged from less than 1 day to 127.0 years, with a median of 13.1 years; nearly 45 percent of the simulated particle ages were less than about 10 years. Nitrate concentrations, derived primarily from residential/commercial fertilizer use and atmospheric deposition, were highest (2.4 and 6.11 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, median and maximum, respectively) in shallow groundwater from the surficial aquifer system and lowest (less than the detection level of 0.06 milligram per liter) in the deeper Upper Floridan aquifer. Denitrification occurred near the interface of the surficial aquifer system and the underlying intermediate confining unit, within the intermediate confining unit, and within the Upper Floridan aquifer because of reducing conditions in this part of the flow system. However, simulations indicate that the rapid movement of water from the surficial aquifer system to the selected public-supply well through karst features (sinkholes) and conduit layers that bypass the denitrifying zones (short-circuits), coupled with high pumping rates, allow nitrate to reach the selected public-supply well in concentrations that resemble those of the overlying surficial aquifer system. Water from the surficial aquifer system with elevated concentrations of nitrate and low concentrations of some volatile organic compounds and pesticides is expected to continue moving into the selected public-supply well, because calculated flux-weighted concentrations indicate the proportion of young affected water contributing to the well is likely to remain relatively stable over time. The calculated nitrate concentration in the selected public-supply well indicates a lag of 1 to 10 years between peak concentrations of nonpoint source contaminants in recharge and appearance in the well.

Probabilistic load simulation: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, J. F.; Ho, H.

1991-05-01

The objective of the Composite Load Spectra (CLS) project is to develop generic load models to simulate the composite load spectra that are included in space propulsion system components. The probabilistic loads thus generated are part of the probabilistic design analysis (PDA) of a space propulsion system that also includes probabilistic structural analyses, reliability, and risk evaluations. Probabilistic load simulation for space propulsion systems demands sophisticated probabilistic methodology and requires large amounts of load information and engineering data. The CLS approach is to implement a knowledge based system coupled with a probabilistic load simulation module. The knowledge base manages and furnishes load information and expertise and sets up the simulation runs. The load simulation module performs the numerical computation to generate the probabilistic loads with load information supplied from the CLS knowledge base.

Preliminary stochastic model for managing Vibrio parahaemolyticus and total viable bacterial counts in a Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) supply chain.

PubMed

Fernandez-Piquer, Judith; Bowman, John P; Ross, Tom; Estrada-Flores, Silvia; Tamplin, Mark L

2013-07-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus can accumulate and grow in oysters stored without refrigeration, representing a potential food safety risk. High temperatures during oyster storage can lead to an increase in total viable bacteria counts, decreasing product shelf life. Therefore, a predictive tool that allows the estimation of both V. parahaemolyticus populations and total viable bacteria counts in parallel is needed. A stochastic model was developed to quantitatively assess the populations of V. parahaemolyticus and total viable bacteria in Pacific oysters for six different supply chain scenarios. The stochastic model encompassed operations from oyster farms through consumers and was built using risk analysis software. Probabilistic distributions and predictions for the percentage of Pacific oysters containing V. parahaemolyticus and high levels of viable bacteria at the point of consumption were generated for each simulated scenario. This tool can provide valuable information about V. parahaemolyticus exposure and potential control measures and can help oyster companies and regulatory agencies evaluate the impact of product quality and safety during cold chain management. If coupled with suitable monitoring systems, such models could enable preemptive action to be taken to counteract unfavorable supply chain conditions.

A Numerical Study of the Effect of Periodic Nutrient Supply on Pathways of Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, Mary-Elena

1998-01-01

A size-based ecosystem model was modified to include periodic upwelling events and used to evaluate the effect of episodic nutrient supply on the standing stock, carbon uptake, and carbon flow into mesozooplankton grazing and sinking flux in a coastal upwelling regime. Two ecosystem configurations were compared: a single food chain made up of net phytoplankton and mesozooplankton (one autotroph and one heterotroph, A1H1), and three interconnected food chains plus bacteria (three autotrophs and four heterotrophs, A3H4). The carbon pathways in the A1H1 simulations were under stronger physical control than those of the A3H4 runs, where the small size classes are not affected by frequent upwelling events. In the more complex food web simulations, the microbial pathway determines the total carbon uptake and grazing rates, and regenerated nitrogen accounts for more than half of the total primary production for periods of 20 days or longer between events. By contrast, new production, export of carbon through sinking and mesozooplankton grazing are more important in the A1H1 simulations. In the A3H4 simulations, the turnover time scale of the autotroph biomass increases as the period between upwelling events increases, because of the larger contribution of slow-growing net phytoplankton. The upwelling period was characterized for three upwelling sites from the alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the corresponding model output compared with literature data. This validation exercise for three upwelling sites and a downstream embayment suggests that standing stock, carbon uptake and size fractionation were best supported by the A3H4 simulations, while the simulated sinking fluxes are not distinguishable in the two configurations.

Modeling the circle of Willis to assess the effect of anatomical variations on the development of unilateral internal carotid artery stenosis.

PubMed

Zhang, Chi; Wang, Ling; Li, Xiaoyun; Li, Shuyu; Pu, Fang; Fan, Yubo; Li, Deyu

2014-01-01

Circle of Willis (CoW) plays a significant role in maintaining the blood supply for the brain. Specifically, when the stenosis occurs in the internal carotid artery (ICA), abnormal structures of CoW would decrease the compensatory capacity, leading to the local insufficiency of cerebral blood supply. The present paper built a series of lumped parameter models for CoW, and simulated the blood redistribution caused by the unilateral ICA stenosis with different severities in cerebral arteries in the normal and abnormal CoW respectively. The results showed that when unilateral ICA stenosis occurred, the collateral circulation was built through the anterior communicating artery and the ipsilateral posterior communicating artery, maintaining the flow in cerebral arteries. The absence of the two communicating arteries would cause an obvious decrease of flow in local cerebral arteries in the anterior circulation. In conclusion, the two arteries play a significant role in maintaining the balance of cerebral blood supply in the development of ICA stenosis.

Real-time cavity simulator-based low-level radio-frequency test bench and applications for accelerators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Feng; Michizono, Shinichiro; Miura, Takako; Matsumoto, Toshihiro; Liu, Na; Wibowo, Sigit Basuki

2018-03-01

A Low-level radio-frequency (LLRF) control systems is required to regulate the rf field in the rf cavity used for beam acceleration. As the LLRF system is usually complex, testing of the basic functions or control algorithms of this system in real time and in advance of beam commissioning is strongly recommended. However, the equipment necessary to test the LLRF system, such as superconducting cavities and high-power rf sources, is very expensive; therefore, we have developed a field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based cavity simulator as a substitute for real rf cavities. Digital models of the cavity and other rf systems are implemented in the FPGA. The main components include cavity baseband models for the fundamental and parasitic modes, a mechanical model of the Lorentz force detuning, and a model of the beam current. Furthermore, in our simulator, the disturbance model used to simulate the power-supply ripples and microphonics is also carefully considered. Based on the presented cavity simulator, we have established an LLRF system test bench that can be applied to different cavity operational conditions. The simulator performance has been verified by comparison with real cavities in KEK accelerators. In this paper, the development and implementation of this cavity simulator is presented first, and the LLRF test bench based on the presented simulator is constructed. The results are then compared with those for KEK accelerators. Finally, several LLRF applications of the cavity simulator are illustrated.

Generalizable open source urban water portfolio simulation framework demonstrated using a multi-objective risk-based planning benchmark problem.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

The growing access and reduced cost for computing power in recent years has promoted rapid development and application of multi-objective water supply portfolio planning. As this trend continues there is a pressing need for flexible risk-based simulation frameworks and improved algorithm benchmarking for emerging classes of water supply planning and management problems. This work contributes the Water Utilities Management and Planning (WUMP) model: a generalizable and open source simulation framework designed to capture how water utilities can minimize operational and financial risks by regionally coordinating planning and management choices, i.e. making more efficient and coordinated use of restrictions, water transfers and financial hedging combined with possible construction of new infrastructure. We introduce the WUMP simulation framework as part of a new multi-objective benchmark problem for planning and management of regionally integrated water utility companies. In this problem, a group of fictitious water utilities seek to balance the use of the mentioned reliability driven actions (e.g., restrictions, water transfers and infrastructure pathways) and their inherent financial risks. Several traits of this problem make it ideal for a benchmark problem, namely the presence of (1) strong non-linearities and discontinuities in the Pareto front caused by the step-wise nature of the decision making formulation and by the abrupt addition of storage through infrastructure construction, (2) noise due to the stochastic nature of the streamflows and water demands, and (3) non-separability resulting from the cooperative formulation of the problem, in which decisions made by stakeholder may substantially impact others. Both the open source WUMP simulation framework and its demonstration in a challenging benchmarking example hold value for promoting broader advances in urban water supply portfolio planning for regions confronting change.

A comparative study of shallow groundwater level simulation with three time series models in a coastal aquifer of South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, J.; Delgado, J.

2017-05-01

Accurate and reliable groundwater level forecasting models can help ensure the sustainable use of a watershed's aquifers for urban and rural water supply. In this paper, three time series analysis methods, Holt-Winters (HW), integrated time series (ITS), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), are explored to simulate the groundwater level in a coastal aquifer, China. The monthly groundwater table depth data collected in a long time series from 2000 to 2011 are simulated and compared with those three time series models. The error criteria are estimated using coefficient of determination ( R 2), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient ( E), and root-mean-squared error. The results indicate that three models are all accurate in reproducing the historical time series of groundwater levels. The comparisons of three models show that HW model is more accurate in predicting the groundwater levels than SARIMA and ITS models. It is recommended that additional studies explore this proposed method, which can be used in turn to facilitate the development and implementation of more effective and sustainable groundwater management strategies.

A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation.

PubMed

Breton, S-P; Sumner, J; Sørensen, J N; Hansen, K S; Sarmast, S; Ivanell, S

2017-04-13

Large eddy simulations (LES) of wind farms have the capability to provide valuable and detailed information about the dynamics of wind turbine wakes. For this reason, their use within the wind energy research community is on the rise, spurring the development of new models and methods. This review surveys the most common schemes available to model the rotor, atmospheric conditions and terrain effects within current state-of-the-art LES codes, of which an overview is provided. A summary of the experimental research data available for validation of LES codes within the context of single and multiple wake situations is also supplied. Some typical results for wind turbine and wind farm flows are presented to illustrate best practices for carrying out high-fidelity LES of wind farms under various atmospheric and terrain conditions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Wind energy in complex terrains'. © 2017 The Author(s).

A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation

PubMed Central

Sumner, J.; Sørensen, J. N.; Hansen, K. S.; Sarmast, S.; Ivanell, S.

2017-01-01

Large eddy simulations (LES) of wind farms have the capability to provide valuable and detailed information about the dynamics of wind turbine wakes. For this reason, their use within the wind energy research community is on the rise, spurring the development of new models and methods. This review surveys the most common schemes available to model the rotor, atmospheric conditions and terrain effects within current state-of-the-art LES codes, of which an overview is provided. A summary of the experimental research data available for validation of LES codes within the context of single and multiple wake situations is also supplied. Some typical results for wind turbine and wind farm flows are presented to illustrate best practices for carrying out high-fidelity LES of wind farms under various atmospheric and terrain conditions. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Wind energy in complex terrains’. PMID:28265021

Techno-economic analysis of using corn stover to supply heat and power to a corn ethanol plant - Part 1: Cost of feedstock supply logistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Mani, Sudhagar; Togore, Sam

2010-01-01

Supply of corn stover to produce heat and power for a typical 170 dam3 dry mill ethanol plant is proposed. The corn ethanol plant requires 5.6 MW of electricity and 52.3 MW of process heat, which creates the annual stover demand of as much as 140 Gg. The corn stover supply system consists of collection, preprocessing, transportation and on-site fuel storage and preparation to produce heat and power for the ethanol plant. Economics of the entire supply system was conducted using the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) simulation model. Corn stover was delivered in three formats (square bales,more » dry chops and pellets) to the combined heat and power plant. Delivered cost of biomass ready to be burned was calculated at 73 $ Mg-1 for bales, 86 $ Mg-1 for pellets and 84 $ Mg-1 for field chopped biomass. Among the three formats of stover supply systems, delivered cost of pelleted biomass was the highest due to high pelleting cost. Bulk transport of biomass in the form of chops and pellets can provide a promising future biomass supply logistic system in the US, if the costs of pelleting and transport are minimized.« less

A Mathematical Model of Demand-Supply Dynamics with Collectability and Saturation Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y. Charles; Yang, Hong

We introduce a mathematical model on the dynamics of demand and supply incorporating collectability and saturation factors. Our analysis shows that when the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, there is chaos in the demand-supply dynamics. Our numerical simulation shows that such a chaos is not an attractor (i.e. dynamics is not approaching the chaos), instead a periodic attractor (of period-3 under the Poincaré period map) exists near the chaos, and coexists with another periodic attractor (of period-1 under the Poincaré period map) near the market equilibrium. Outside the basins of attraction of the two periodic attractors, the dynamics approaches infinity indicating market irrational exuberance or flash crash. The period-3 attractor represents the product’s market cycle of growth and recession, while period-1 attractor near the market equilibrium represents the regular fluctuation of the product’s market. Thus our model captures more market phenomena besides Marshall’s market equilibrium. When the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, a three leaf danger zone exists where the basins of attraction of all attractors intertwine and fractal basin boundaries are formed. Small perturbations in the danger zone can lead to very different attractors. That is, small perturbations in the danger zone can cause the market to experience oscillation near market equilibrium, large growth and recession cycle, and irrational exuberance or flash crash.

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Boyce, Scott E.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hughes, Joseph D.; Mehl, Steffen W.; Leake, Stanley A.; Maddock, Thomas; Niswonger, Richard G.

2014-01-01

The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model (IHM) that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. Conjunctive use is the combined use of groundwater and surface water. MF-OWHM allows the simulation, analysis, and management of nearly all components of human and natural water movement and use in a physically-based supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 (MF-FMP2) combined with Local Grid Refinement (LGR) for embedded models to allow use of the Farm Process (FMP) and Streamflow Routing (SFR) within embedded grids. MF-OWHM also includes new features such as the Surface-water Routing Process (SWR), Seawater Intrusion (SWI), and Riparian Evapotrasnpiration (RIP-ET), and new solvers such as Newton-Raphson (NWT) and nonlinear preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCGN). This IHM also includes new connectivities to expand the linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows. Deformation-dependent flows are simulated through the optional linkage to simulated land subsidence with a vertically deforming mesh. Flow-dependent flows now include linkages between the new SWR with SFR and FMP, as well as connectivity with embedded models for SFR and FMP through LGR. Head-dependent flows now include a modified Hydrologic Flow Barrier Package (HFB) that allows optional transient HFB capabilities, and the flow between any two layers that are adjacent along a depositional or erosional boundary or displaced along a fault. MF-OWHM represents a complete operational hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by irrigated agriculture, but also of water used in urban areas and by natural vegetation. Supply and demand components of water use are analyzed under demand-driven and supply-constrained conditions. From large- to small-scale settings, MF-OWHM has the unique set of capabilities to simulate and analyze historical, present, and future conjunctive-use conditions. MF-OWHM is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use where few data are available for pumpage, land use, or agricultural information. The features presented in this IHM include additional linkages with SFR, SWR, Drain-Return (DRT), Multi-Node Wells (MNW1 and MNW2), and Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF). Thus, MF-OWHM helps to reduce the loss of water during simulation of the hydrosphere and helps to account for “all of the water everywhere and all of the time.” In addition to groundwater, surface-water, and landscape budgets, MF-OWHM provides more options for observations of land subsidence, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration (ET) than previous models. Detailed landscape budgets combined with output of estimates of actual evapotranspiration facilitates linkage to remotely sensed observations as input or as additional observations for parameter estimation or water-use analysis. The features of FMP have been extended to allow for temporally variable water-accounting units (farms) that can be linked to land-use models and the specification of both surface-water and groundwater allotments to facilitate sustainability analysis and connectivity to the Groundwater Management Process (GWM). An example model described in this report demonstrates the application of MF-OWHM with the addition of land subsidence and a vertically deforming mesh, delayed recharge through an unsaturated zone, rejected infiltration in a riparian area, changes in demand caused by deficiency in supply, and changes in multi-aquifer pumpage caused by constraints imposed through the Farm Process and the MNW2 Package, and changes in surface water such as runoff, streamflow, and canal flows through SFR and SWR linkages.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Nutrient supply, surface currents, and plankton dynamics predict zooplankton hotspots in coastal upwelling systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messié, Monique; Chavez, Francisco P.

2017-09-01

A simple combination of wind-driven nutrient upwelling, surface currents, and plankton growth/grazing equations generates zooplankton patchiness and hotspots in coastal upwelling regions. Starting with an initial input of nitrate from coastal upwelling, growth and grazing equations evolve phytoplankton and zooplankton over time and space following surface currents. The model simulates the transition from coastal (large phytoplankton, e.g., diatoms) to offshore (picophytoplankton and microzooplankton) communities, and in between generates a large zooplankton maximum. The method was applied to four major upwelling systems (California, Peru, Northwest Africa, and Benguela) using latitudinal estimates of wind-driven nitrate supply and satellite-based surface currents. The resulting zooplankton simulations are patchy in nature; areas of high concentrations coincide with previously documented copepod and krill hotspots. The exercise highlights the importance of the upwelling process and surface currents in shaping plankton communities.

A neural network controller for hydronic heating systems of solar buildings.

PubMed

Argiriou, Athanassios A; Bellas-Velidis, Ioannis; Kummert, Michaël; André, Philippe

2004-04-01

An artificial neural network (ANN)-based controller for hydronic heating plants of buildings is presented. The controller has forecasting capabilities: it includes a meteorological module, forecasting the ambient temperature and solar irradiance, an indoor temperature predictor module, a supply temperature predictor module and an optimizing module for the water supply temperature. All ANN modules are based on the Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP) model. The operation of the controller has been tested experimentally, on a real-scale office building during real operating conditions. The operation results were compared to those of a conventional controller. The performance was also assessed via numerical simulation. The detailed thermal simulation tool for solar systems and buildings TRNSYS was used. Both experimental and numerical results showed that the expected percentage of energy savings with respect to a conventional controller is of about 15% under North European weather conditions.

The Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2010-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Historical period results will spur model improvement and interaction among major modeling groups, while future period results will lead directly to tests of adaptation and mitigation strategies across a range of scales. AgMIP will consist of a multi-scale impact assessment utilizing the latest methods for climate and agricultural scenario generation. Scenarios and modeling protocols will be distributed on the web, and multi-model results will be collated and analyzed to ensure the widest possible coverage of agricultural crops and regions. AgMIP will place regional changes in agricultural production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces for food supply. Such projections are essential inputs from the Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation (VIA) research community to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (AR5), now underway, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will set the context for local-scale vulnerability and adaptation studies, supply test scenarios for national-scale development of trade policy instruments, provide critical information on changing supply and demand for water resources, and elucidate interactive effects of climate change and land use change. AgMIP will not only provide crucially-needed new global estimates of how climate change will affect food supply and hunger in the agricultural regions of the world, but it will also build the capabilities of developing countries to estimate how climate change will affect their supply and demand for food.

Reliability evaluation of microgrid considering incentive-based demand response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ting-Cheng; Zhang, Yong-Jun

2017-07-01

Incentive-based demand response (IBDR) can guide customers to adjust their behaviour of electricity and curtail load actively. Meanwhile, distributed generation (DG) and energy storage system (ESS) can provide time for the implementation of IBDR. The paper focus on the reliability evaluation of microgrid considering IBDR. Firstly, the mechanism of IBDR and its impact on power supply reliability are analysed. Secondly, the IBDR dispatch model considering customer’s comprehensive assessment and the customer response model are developed. Thirdly, the reliability evaluation method considering IBDR based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Finally, the validity of the above models and method is studied through numerical tests on modified RBTS Bus6 test system. Simulation results demonstrated that IBDR can improve the reliability of microgrid.

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleoclimate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, B. J.; Thyer, M. A.; Kuczera, G. A.

2012-12-01

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. To characterize long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate and instrumental data describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yrs is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run-lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. Model selection techniques were used to determine a suitable stochastic model to simulate these run-lengths. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, was found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and was rejected in favor of a gamma distribution. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. Application to two high-quality rainfall sites close to water supply reservoirs found that mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry state was 15%-28% lower than the wet state. The model was able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multi-year accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations for the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive AR(1) model was unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Furthermore, analysis of the impact of the CIMSS framework on drought risk analysis found that short-term drought risks conditional on IPO/PDO state were considerably higher than the traditional AR(1) model.hort-term conditional water supply drought risks for the CIMSS and AR(1) models for the dry IPO-PDO scenario with a range of initial storage levels expressed as a proportion of the annual demand (yield).

Numerical modeling of incised-valley deposits in Tokyo lowland for the last 13 kyrs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, Y.; Syvitski, J. P.; Hutton, E. W.; Tanabe, S.

2006-12-01

A coupled-simulation by the hydrologic model HydroTrend and the stratigraphic model SedFlux is applied to the incised-valley-fill deposits in the Tokyo lowland for the last 13,000 years. The postglacial sediments supplied by paleo Tonegawa River have formed deltaic deposits controlled by eustatic sea-level rise after LGM. The effects of changes in sea level, climate, and morphology on the resultant architecture of the deposits are simulated and analyzed by the numerical models. Synthetic sediment flux from the paleo Tonegawa is computed by the hydrologic model HydroTrend. The model predicts variation in average rate of sediment production over geological time scale from changes in drainage area, precipitation, temperature and morphology. Random variation based on statistic climate data is added to the predicted average values to provide daily sediment discharge. The model prediction indicates that, despite 80% increase in drainage area in the past, competing effects of decreased precipitation resulted in relatively stable sediment discharge over the last 13,000 years. On the other hand, variation in daily sediment discharge shows drastic increase during infrequent storm events. Possible occurrence of hyperpycnal flows at the river mouth was indicated during such storms, which produced daily sediment load ten times larger than average yearly sediment discharge. The estimated sediment supply is used as input to the process-based forward-model 2D-SedFlux. SedFlux is able to simulate transport and deposition of sediments by such processes as river plume, bedload dumping and ocean storms with changing boundary conditions of sea level and basement morphology. The simulation is based on the initial paleo-morphology reconstructed from integrated core analysis from the area. 2D-SedFlux successfully predicts the formation of transgressive deposits and subsequent prograding delta deposits, and the results are comparable to general architecture of incised-valley fills in the area. Detailed comparison between the model predictions and field data shows some minor differences, which are then used to revise the local sea level curve.

An Analysis of Factors That Influence Logistics, Operational Availability, and Flight Hour Supply of the German Attack Helicopter Fleet

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

maintenance times from the fleet are randomly resampled when running the model to enhance model realism. The use of a simulation model to represent the...helicopter regiment. 2. Attack Helicopter UH TIGER The EC665, or Airbus Helicopter TIGER, (Figure 3) is a four- bladed , twin- engine multi-role attack...migrated into the automated management system SAP Standard Product Family (SASPF), and the usage clock starts to run with the amount of the current

Patterns of deoxygenation: sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oschlies, Andreas; Duteil, Olaf; Getzlaff, Julia; Koeve, Wolfgang; Landolfi, Angela; Schmidtko, Sunke

2017-08-01

Observational estimates and numerical models both indicate a significant overall decline in marine oxygen levels over the past few decades. Spatial patterns of oxygen change, however, differ considerably between observed and modelled estimates. Particularly in the tropical thermocline that hosts open-ocean oxygen minimum zones, observations indicate a general oxygen decline, whereas most of the state-of-the-art models simulate increasing oxygen levels. Possible reasons for the apparent model-data discrepancies are examined. In order to attribute observed historical variations in oxygen levels, we here study mechanisms of changes in oxygen supply and consumption with sensitivity model simulations. Specifically, the role of equatorial jets, of lateral and diapycnal mixing processes, of changes in the wind-driven circulation and atmospheric nutrient supply, and of some poorly constrained biogeochemical processes are investigated. Predominantly wind-driven changes in the low-latitude oceanic ventilation are identified as a possible factor contributing to observed oxygen changes in the low-latitude thermocline during the past decades, while the potential role of biogeochemical processes remains difficult to constrain. We discuss implications for the attribution of observed oxygen changes to anthropogenic impacts and research priorities that may help to improve our mechanistic understanding of oxygen changes and the quality of projections into a changing future. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Simulating water markets with transaction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J.

2014-06-01

This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. This article was corrected on 13 JUN 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Trade-offs between maintenance of ecosystem services and socio-economic development in rural mountainous communities in southern Spain: a dynamic simulation approach.

PubMed

Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz; Martínez-Fernández, Julia; Picón, Andrés Sánchez; Pugnaire, Francisco I

2013-12-15

Mountainous rural communities have traditionally managed their land extensively, resulting in land uses that provide important ecosystem services for both rural and urban areas. Over recent decades, these communities have undergone drastic changes in economic structure, population size and land use. Our understanding of the exact mechanisms that drive these changes is limited, and there is also a lack of integrative approaches to enable decision makers to steer rural development towards a more sustainable path. In this study, we build a dynamic simulation model to calculate the trade-offs between the provisions of two ecosystem services - landscape aesthetic value and water supply for human use - and the economic development associated with different land use changes. The study area for the simulation comprises two rural communities located in southern Spain. Our results show trade-offs between economic development and the provision of the selected ecosystem services in the selected study area. Land use intensification results in economic development but is not enough to prevent population loss and has a negative impact on both the water supply and on aesthetic services. We conclude that more proactive management policies are needed to mitigate a loss in ecosystem services. Simulation models like ours may facilitate the choice of these policies, as they could test the result of land use planning policies contributing therefore, to a more integrative and sustainable management of rural communities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODEL BASED BIOMASS SYSTEM DESIGN OF FEEDSTOCK SUPPLY SYSTEMS FOR BIOENERGY PRODUCTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David J. Muth, Jr.; Jacob J. Jacobson; Kenneth M. Bryden

Engineering feedstock supply systems that deliver affordable, high-quality biomass remains a challenge for the emerging bioenergy industry. Cellulosic biomass is geographically distributed and has diverse physical and chemical properties. Because of this feedstock supply systems that deliver cellulosic biomass resources to biorefineries require integration of a broad set of engineered unit operations. These unit operations include harvest and collection, storage, preprocessing, and transportation processes. Design decisions for each feedstock supply system unit operation impact the engineering design and performance of the other system elements. These interdependencies are further complicated by spatial and temporal variances such as climate conditions and biomassmore » characteristics. This paper develops an integrated model that couples a SQL-based data management engine and systems dynamics models to design and evaluate biomass feedstock supply systems. The integrated model, called the Biomass Logistics Model (BLM), includes a suite of databases that provide 1) engineering performance data for hundreds of equipment systems, 2) spatially explicit labor cost datasets, and 3) local tax and regulation data. The BLM analytic engine is built in the systems dynamics software package PowersimTM. The BLM is designed to work with thermochemical and biochemical based biofuel conversion platforms and accommodates a range of cellulosic biomass types (i.e., herbaceous residues, short- rotation woody and herbaceous energy crops, woody residues, algae, etc.). The BLM simulates the flow of biomass through the entire supply chain, tracking changes in feedstock characteristics (i.e., moisture content, dry matter, ash content, and dry bulk density) as influenced by the various operations in the supply chain. By accounting for all of the equipment that comes into contact with biomass from the point of harvest to the throat of the conversion facility and the change in characteristics, the BLM evaluates economic performance of the engineered system, as well as determining energy consumption and green house gas performance of the design. This paper presents a BLM case study delivering corn stover to produce cellulosic ethanol. The case study utilizes the BLM to model the performance of several feedstock supply system designs. The case study also explores the impact of temporal variations in climate conditions to test the sensitivity of the engineering designs. Results from the case study show that under certain conditions corn stover can be delivered to the cellulosic ethanol biorefinery for $35/dry ton.« less

Simulations of Ground-Water Flow and Particle Pathline Analysis in the Zone of Contribution of a Public-Supply Well in Modesto, Eastern San Joaquin Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burow, Karen R.; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Phillips, Steven P.; Dalgish, Barbara A.; Shelton, Jennifer L.

2008-01-01

Shallow ground water in the eastern San Joaquin Valley is affected by high nitrate and uranium concentrations and frequent detections of pesticides and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as a result of ground-water development and intensive agricultural and urban land use. A single public-supply well was selected for intensive study to evaluate the dominant processes affecting the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Modesto area. A network of 23 monitoring wells was installed, and water and sediment samples were collected within the approximate zone of contribution of the public-supply well, to support a detailed analysis of physical and chemical conditions and processes affecting the water chemistry in the well. A three-dimensional, steady-state local ground-water-flow and transport model was developed to evaluate the age of ground water reaching the well and to evaluate the vulnerability of the well to nonpoint source input of nitrate and uranium. Particle tracking was used to compute pathlines and advective travel times in the ground-water flow model. The simulated ages of particles reaching the public-supply well ranged from 9 to 30,000 years, with a median of 54 years. The age of the ground water contributed to the public-supply well increased with depth below the water table. Measured nitrate concentrations, derived primarily from agricultural fertilizer, were highest (17 milligrams per liter) in shallow ground water and decreased with depth to background concentrations of less than 2 milligrams per liter in the deepest wells. Because the movement of water is predominantly downward as a result of ground-water development, and because geochemical conditions are generally oxic, high nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water are expected to continue moving downward without significant attenuation. Simulated long-term nitrate concentrations indicate that concentrations have peaked and will decrease in the public-supply well during the next 100 years because of the low nitrate concentrations in recharge beneath the urban area and the increasing proportion of urban-derived ground water reaching the well. The apparent lag time between peak input concentrations and peak concentrations in the well is about 20 to 30 years. Measured uranium concentrations were also highest (45 micrograms per liter) in shallow ground water, and decreased with depth to background concentrations of about 0.5 microgram per liter. Naturally-occurring uranium adsorbed to aquifer sediments is mobilized by oxygen-rich, high-alkalinity water. Alkalinity increased in shallow ground water in response to agricultural development. As ground-water pumping increased in the 1940s and 1950s, this alkaline water moved downward through the ground-water flow system, mobilizing the uranium adsorbed to aquifer sediments. Ground water with high alkalinity and high uranium concentrations is expected to continue to move deeper in the system, resulting in increased uranium concentrations with depth in ground water. Because alkalinity (and correspondingly uranium) concentrations were high in shallow ground water beneath both the urban and the agricultural land, long-term uranium concentrations in the public-supply well are expected to increase as the proportion of uranium-affected water contributed to the well increases. Assuming that the alkalinity near the water table remains the same, the simulation of long-term alkalinity in the public-supply well indicates that uranium concentrations in the public-supply well will likely approach the maximum contaminant level; however, the time to reach this level is more than 100 years because of the significant proportion of old, unaffected water at depth that is contributed to the public-supply well.

Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nuttle, William K.; Fourqurean, James W.; Cosby, Bernard J.; Zieman, Joseph C.; Robblee, Michael B.

2000-01-01

An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long‐term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central and West Regions.

A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

Predictive Modeling the Physician Assistant Supply: 2010–2025

PubMed Central

Hooker, Roderick S.; Cawley, James F.; Everett, Christine M.

2011-01-01

Objective A component of health-care reform in 2010 identified physician assistants (PAs) as needed to help mitigate the expected doctor shortage. We modeled their number to predict rational estimates for workforce planners. Methods The number of PAs in active clinical practice in 2010 formed the baseline. We used graduation rates and program expansion to project annual growth; attrition estimates offset these amounts. A simulation model incorporated historical trends, current supply, and graduation amounts. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to systematically adjust parameters in the model to determine the effects of such changes. Results As of 2010, there were 74,476 PAs in the active workforce. The mean age was 42 years and 65% were female. There were 154 accredited educational programs; 99% had a graduating class and produced an average of 44 graduates annually (total n=6,776). With a 7% increase in graduate entry rate and a 5% annual attrition rate, the supply of clinically active PAs will grow to 93,099 in 2015, 111,004 in 2020, and 127,821 in 2025. This model holds clinically active PAs in primary care at 34%. Conclusions The number of clinically active PAs is projected to increase by almost 72% in 15 years. Attrition rates, especially retirement patterns, are not well understood for PAs, and variation could affect future supply. While the majority of PAs are in the medical specialties and subspecialties fields, new policy steps funding PA education and promoting primary care may add more PAs in primary care than the model predicts. PMID:21886331

A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

2007-07-01

SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

Simulation of regional ground-water flow in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.

2004-01-01

This report describes a numerical model that simulates regional ground-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon. Ground water and surface water are intimately connected in the upper Deschutes Basin and most of the flow of the Deschutes River is supplied by ground water. Because of this connection, ground-water pumping and reduction of artificial recharge by lining leaking irrigation canals can reduce the amount of ground water discharging to streams and, consequently, streamflow. The model described in this report is intended to help water-management agencies and the public evaluate how the regional ground-water system and streamflow will respond to ground-water pumping, canal lining, drought, and other stresses. Ground-water flow is simulated in the model by the finite-difference method using MODFLOW and MODFLOWP. The finite-difference grid consists of 8 layers, 127 rows, and 87 columns. All major streams and most principal tributaries in the upper Deschutes Basin are included. Ground-water recharge from precipitation was estimated using a daily water-balance approach. Artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals and on-farm losses was estimated from diversion and delivery records, seepage studies, and crop data. Ground-water pumpage for irrigation and public water supplies, and evapotranspiration are also included in the model. The model was calibrated to mean annual (1993-95) steady-state conditions using parameter-estimation techniques employing nonlinear regression. Fourteen hydraulic-conductivity parameters and two vertical conductance parameters were determined using nonlinear regression. Final parameter values are all within expected ranges. The general shape and slope of the simulated water-table surface and overall hydraulic-head distribution match the geometry determined from field measurements. The fitted standard deviation for hydraulic head is about 76 feet. The general magnitude and distribution of ground-water discharge to streams is also well simulated throughout the model. Ground-water discharge to streams in the area of the confluence of the Deschutes, Crooked, and Metolius Rivers is closely matched. The model was also calibrated to transient conditions from 1978 to 1997 using traditional trial-and-error methods. Climatic cycles during this period provided an excellent regional hydrologic signal for calibration. Climate-driven water-level fluctuations are simulated with reasonable accuracy over most of the model area. The timing and magnitude of simulated water-level fluctuations caused by annual pulses of recharge from precipitation match those observed reasonably well, given the limitations of the time discretization in the model. Water-level fluctuations caused by annual canal leakage are simulated very well over most of the area where such fluctuations occur. The transient model also simulates the volumetric distribution and temporal variations in ground-water discharge reasonably well. The match between simulated and measured volume of and variations in ground-water discharge is, however, somewhat dependent on geographic scale. The rates of and variations in ground-water discharge are matched best at regional scales. Example simulations were made to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating the effects of ground-water pumping or canal lining. Pumping simulations show that pumped water comes largely from aquifer storage when pumping begins, but as the water table stabilizes, the pumping increasingly diminishes the discharge to streams and, hence, streamflow. The time it takes for pumping to affect streamflow varies spatially depending, in general, on the location of pumping relative to the discharge areas. Canal-lining simulations show similar effects.

Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

2012-06-01

Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated hydrologic simulation provides a valuable addition for hydrologic modelling as well as for crop modelling.

Metropolitan Washington Area Water Supply Study. Appendix B. Plan Formulation, Assessment, and Evaluation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

which serve as aquifers. The aquifers include, in ascending order, the Patuxent, the Patapso, the Magothy , and the Aquia Formations. These aquifer...consist typically of sand layers of varying thickness interbedded with clays. The general thickness of the Patuxent, Patapsco, Magothy and Aquia in the...Aquifers. This was accomplished using a digital simulation model originally developed by the USGS for the Magothy Aquifer. The model uses a finite

Space Vehicle Reliability Modeling in DIORAMA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tornga, Shawn Robert

When modeling system performance of space based detection systems it is important to consider spacecraft reliability. As space vehicles age the components become prone to failure for a variety of reasons such as radiation damage. Additionally, some vehicles may lose the ability to maneuver once they exhaust fuel supplies. Typically failure is divided into two categories: engineering mistakes and technology surprise. This document will report on a method of simulating space vehicle reliability in the DIORAMA framework.

Socioeconophysics:. Opinion Dynamics for Number of Transactions and Price, a Trader Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuncay, Çağlar

Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with several weights and some personal differences between traders are taken into account. Resulting time series and probabilty distribution function involving a power law for price come out similar to the real ones.

Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Flint, Alan L.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Leake, Stanley A.; Schmid, Wolfgang

2010-01-01

Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley where about 20% of all groundwater used in the United States is consumed for agriculture and urban water supply. Continued agricultural use coupled with urban growth and potential climate change would result in continued depletion of groundwater storage and associated land subsidence throughout the Central Valley. For 1962-2003, an estimated 1,230 hectare meters (hm3) of water was withdrawn from fine-grained beds, resulting in more than three meters (m) of additional land subsidence locally. Linked physically-based, supply-constrained and emanddriven hydrologic models were used to simulate future hydrologic conditions under the A2 climate projection scenario that assumes continued "business as usual" greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate an increased subsidence in the second half of the twenty-first century. Potential simulated land subsidence extends into urban areas and the eastern side of the valley where future surface-water deliveries may be depleted. 

Volume sharing of reservoir water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, Norman J.

1988-05-01

Previous models optimize short-, intermediate-, and long-run irrigation decision making in a simplified river valley system characterized by highly variable water supplies and demands for a single decision maker controlling both reservoir releases and farm water use. A major problem in relaxing the assumption of one decision maker is communicating the stochastic nature of supplies and demands between reservoir and farm managers. In this paper, an optimizing model is used to develop release rules for reservoir management when all users share equally in releases, and computer simulation is used to generate an historical time sequence of announced releases. These announced releases become a state variable in a farm management model which optimizes farm area-to-irrigate decisions through time. Such modeling envisages the use of growing area climatic data by the reservoir authority to gauge water demand and the transfer of water supply data from reservoir to farm managers via computer data files. Alternative model forms, including allocating water on a priority basis, are discussed briefly. Results show lower mean aggregate farm income and lower variance of aggregate farm income than in the single decision-maker case. This short-run economic efficiency loss coupled with likely long-run economic efficiency losses due to the attenuated nature of property rights indicates the need for quite different ways of integrating reservoir and farm management.

Atmospheric river influence on the intensification of extreme hydrologic events over the Western United States under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagán, Brianna; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Nayak, Munir; Rastogi, Deeksha; Margulis, Steven; Pal, Jeremy

2017-04-01

The Western United States shares limited snowmelt driven water supplies amongst millions of people, a multi-billion dollar agriculture industry and fragile ecosystems. The climatology of the region is highly variable, characterized by the frequent occurrences of both flood and drought conditions that cause increasingly challenging water management issues. Although variable year to year, up to half of California's total precipitation can be linked to atmospheric rivers (ARs). Most notably, ARs have been connected to nearly every major historic flood in the region, establishing its critical role to water supply. Numerous prior studies have considered potential climate change impacts over the Western United States and have generally concluded that warmer temperatures will reduce snowpack and shift runoff timing, causing reductions to water supply. Here we examine the role of ARs as one mechanism for explaining projected increases in flood and drought frequency and intensity under climate change scenarios, vital information for water resource managers. A hierarchical modeling framework to downscale 11 coupled global climate models from CMIP5 is used to form an ensemble of high-resolution dynamically downscaled regional climate model (via RegCM4) simulations at 18-km and hydrological (via VIC) simulations at a 4-km resolution for baseline (1965-2005) and future (2010-2050) periods under RCP 8.5. Each ensemble member's ability to capture observational AR climatology over the baseline period is evaluated. Baseline to future period changes to AR size, duration, seasonal timing, trajectory, magnitude and frequency are presented. These changes to the characterizations of ARs in the region are used to determine if any links exist to changes in snowpack volume, runoff timing, and the occurrence of daily and annual cumulative extreme precipitation and runoff events. Shifts in extreme AR frequency and magnitude are expected to increase flood risks, which without adequate multi-year reservoir storage solutions could further strain water supply resources.

UNRES server for physics-based coarse-grained simulations and prediction of protein structure, dynamics and thermodynamics.

PubMed

Czaplewski, Cezary; Karczynska, Agnieszka; Sieradzan, Adam K; Liwo, Adam

2018-04-30

A server implementation of the UNRES package (http://www.unres.pl) for coarse-grained simulations of protein structures with the physics-based UNRES model, coined a name UNRES server, is presented. In contrast to most of the protein coarse-grained models, owing to its physics-based origin, the UNRES force field can be used in simulations, including those aimed at protein-structure prediction, without ancillary information from structural databases; however, the implementation includes the possibility of using restraints. Local energy minimization, canonical molecular dynamics simulations, replica exchange and multiplexed replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations can be run with the current UNRES server; the latter are suitable for protein-structure prediction. The user-supplied input includes protein sequence and, optionally, restraints from secondary-structure prediction or small x-ray scattering data, and simulation type and parameters which are selected or typed in. Oligomeric proteins, as well as those containing D-amino-acid residues and disulfide links can be treated. The output is displayed graphically (minimized structures, trajectories, final models, analysis of trajectory/ensembles); however, all output files can be downloaded by the user. The UNRES server can be freely accessed at http://unres-server.chem.ug.edu.pl.

Hydrogeologic Settings and Ground-Water Flow Simulations for Regional Studies of the Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to Public-Supply Wells - Studies Begun in 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paschke, Suzanne S.

2007-01-01

This study of the Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to public-supply wells (TANC study) is being conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and was designed to increase understanding of the most important factors to consider in ground-water vulnerability assessments. The seven TANC studies that began in 2001 used retrospective data and ground-water flow models to evaluate hydrogeologic variables that affect aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability at a regional scale. Ground-water flow characteristics, regional water budgets, pumping-well information, and water-quality data were compiled from existing data and used to develop conceptual models of ground-water conditions for each study area. Steady-state regional ground-water flow models were used to represent the conceptual models, and advective particle-tracking simulations were used to compute areas contributing recharge and traveltimes from recharge to selected public-supply wells. Retrospective data and modeling results were tabulated into a relational database for future analysis. Seven study areas were selected to evaluate a range of hydrogeologic settings and management practices across the Nation: the Salt Lake Valley, Utah; the Eagle Valley and Spanish Springs Valley, Nevada; the San Joaquin Valley, California; the Northern Tampa Bay region, Florida; the Pomperaug River Basin, Connecticut; the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio; and the Eastern High Plains, Nebraska. This Professional Paper Chapter presents the hydrogeologic settings and documents the ground-water flow models for each of the NAWQA TANC regional study areas that began work in 2001. Methods used to compile retrospective data, determine contributing areas of public-supply wells, and characterize oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions also are presented. This Professional Paper Chapter provides the foundation for future susceptibility and vulnerability analyses in the TANC study areas and comparisons among regional aquifer systems. The report is organized in sections. In addition to the introductory section (Section 1) are seven sections that present the hydrogeologic characterization and ground-water flow model documentation for each TANC regional study area (Sections 2 through 8). Abstracts in Sections 2 through 8 provide summaries and major findings for each regional study area.

Study and Simulation on Dynamics of a Risk-Averse Supply Chain Pricing Model with Dual-Channel and Incomplete Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lijian; Ma, Junhai

Under the industrial background of dual-channel, volatility in demand of consumers, we use the theory of bifurcations and numerical simulation tools to investigate the dynamic pricing game in a dual-channel supply chain with risk-averse behavior and incomplete information. Due to volatility of demand of consumers, we consider all the players in the supply chain are risk-averse. We assume there exist Bertrand game and Manufacturers’ Stackelberg in the chain which are closer to reality. The main objective of the paper is to investigate the complex influence of the decision parameters such as wholesale price adjustment speed, risk preference and service value on stability of the risk-averse supply chain and average utilities of all the players. We lay emphasis on the influence of chaos on average utilities of all the players which did not appear in previous studies. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed by 2D bifurcation phase portraits, Double Largest Lyapunov exponent, basins of attraction and so on. The study shows that the manufacturers should slow down their wholesale price adjustment speed to get more utilities, if the manufacturers are willing to take on more risk, they will get more profits, but they must keep their wholesale prices in a certain range in order to maintain the market stability.

Simulation study of pO2 distribution in induced tumour masses and normal tissues within a microcirculation environment.

PubMed

Li, Mao; Li, Yan; Wen, Peng Paul

2014-01-01

The biological microenvironment is interrupted when tumour masses are introduced because of the strong competition for oxygen. During the period of avascular growth of tumours, capillaries that existed play a crucial role in supplying oxygen to both tumourous and healthy cells. Due to limitations of oxygen supply from capillaries, healthy cells have to compete for oxygen with tumourous cells. In this study, an improved Krogh's cylinder model which is more realistic than the previously reported assumption that oxygen is homogeneously distributed in a microenvironment, is proposed to describe the process of the oxygen diffusion from a capillary to its surrounding environment. The capillary wall permeability is also taken into account. The simulation study is conducted and the results show that when tumour masses are implanted at the upstream part of a capillary and followed by normal tissues, the whole normal tissues suffer from hypoxia. In contrast, when normal tissues are ahead of tumour masses, their pO2 is sufficient. In both situations, the pO2 in the whole normal tissues drops significantly due to the axial diffusion at the interface of normal tissues and tumourous cells. As the existence of the axial oxygen diffusion cannot supply the whole tumour masses, only these tumourous cells that are near the interface can be partially supplied, and have a small chance to survive.

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

PubMed

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result.

A groundwater-flow model for the Treasure Valley and surrounding area, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartolino, James R.; Vincent, Sean

2017-04-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the Idaho Department of Water Resources (IDWR) and Idaho Water Resource Board (IWRB), will construct a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Treasure Valley and surrounding area. Resource managers will use the model to simulate potential anthropogenic and climatic effects on groundwater for water-supply planning and management. As part of model construction, the hydrogeologic understanding of the aquifer system will be updated with information collected during the last two decades, as well as new data collected for the study.

Simulated groundwater flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, Rosebud Indian Reservation area, South Dakota - Revisions with data through water year 2008 and simulations of potential future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, Larry D.

2010-01-01

The Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers are important water resources in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area and are used extensively for irrigation, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Drought or increased withdrawals from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area have the potential to affect water levels in these aquifers. This report documents revisions and recalibration of a previously published three-dimensional, numerical groundwater-flow model for this area. Data for a 30-year period (water years 1979 through 2008) were used in steady-state and transient numerical simulations of groundwater flow. In the revised model, revisions include (1) extension of the transient calibration period by 10 years, (2) the use of inverse modeling for steady-state calibration, (3) model calibration to base flow for an additional four surface-water drainage basins, (4) improved estimation of transient aquifer recharge, (5) improved delineation of vegetation types, and (6) reduced cell size near large capacity water-supply wells. In addition, potential future scenarios were simulated to assess the potential effects of drought and increased groundwater withdrawals.The model comprised two layers: the upper layer represented the Ogallala aquifer and the lower layer represented the Arikaree aquifer. The model’s grid had 168 rows and 202 columns, most of which were 1,640 feet (500 meters) wide, with narrower rows and columns near large water-supply wells. Recharge to the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers occurs from precipitation on the outcrop areas. The average recharge rates used for the steady-state simulation were 2.91 and 1.45 inches per year for the Ogallala aquifer and Arikaree aquifer, respectively, for a total rate of 255.4 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Discharge from the aquifers occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams as base flow and spring flow, and well withdrawals. Discharge rates for the steady-state simulation were 171.3 ft3/s for evapotranspiration, 74.4 ft3/s for net outflow to streams and springs, and 11.6 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity used for the numerical model ranged from 0.2 to 84.4 feet per day (ft/d) in the Ogallala aquifer and from 0.1 to 4.3 ft/d in the Arikaree aquifer. A uniform vertical hydraulic conductivity value of 4.2x10-4 ft/d was estimated for the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical hydraulic conductivity was estimated for five zones in the Arikaree aquifer and ranged from 8.8x10-5 to 3.7 ft/d. Average rates of recharge, maximum evapotranspiration, and well withdrawals were included in the steady-state simulation, whereas the time-varying rates were included in the transient simulation.Inverse modeling techniques were used for steady-state model calibration. These methods were designed to estimate parameter values that are, statistically, the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed hydraulic heads and base-flow discharges. For the steady-state simulation, the root mean square error for simulated hydraulic heads for all 383 wells was 27.3 feet. Simulated hydraulic heads were within ±50 feet of observed values for 93 percent of the wells. The potentiometric surfaces of the two aquifers calculated by the steady-state simulation established initial conditions for the transient simulation. For the transient simulation, the difference between the simulated and observed means for hydrographs was within ±40 feet for 98 percent of 44 observation wells.A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated steady-state model to changes in model parameters including horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, evapotranspiration, recharge, and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances.To simulate a potential future drought scenario, a synthetic recharge record was created, the mean of which was equal to 64 percent of the average estimated recharge rate for the 30-year calibration period. This synthetic recharge record was used to simulate the last 20 years of the calibration period under drought conditions. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the drought scenario at the end of the simulation period were as much as 39 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 30-year calibration period for the last 20 years of the calibration period. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the scenario of increased pumping at the end of the simulation period were as much as 13 feet for the Ogallala aquifer.This numerical model is suitable as a tool to help understand the flow system, to help confirm that previous estimates of aquifer properties were reasonable, and to estimate aquifer properties in areas without data. The model also is useful to help assess the effects of drought and increases in pumping by simulations of these scenarios, the results of which are not precise but may be considered when making water management decisions.

A Decision Support System for Mitigating Stream Temperature Impacts in the Sacramento River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2014-12-01

Increasing demands on the limited and variable water supply across the West can result in insufficient streamflow to sustain healthy fish habitat. We develop an integrated decision support system (DSS) for modeling and mitigating stream temperature impacts and demonstrate it on the Sacramento River system in California. Water management in the Sacramento River is a complex task with a diverse set of demands ranging from municipal supply to mitigation of fisheries impacts due to high water temperatures. Current operations utilize the temperature control device (TCD) structure at Shasta Dam to mitigate these high water temperatures downstream at designated compliance points. The TCD structure at Shasta Dam offers a rather unique opportunity to mitigate water temperature violations through adjustments to both release volume and temperature. In this study, we develop and evaluate a model-based DSS with four broad components that are coupled to produce the decision tool for stream temperature mitigation: (i) a suite of statistical models for modeling stream temperature attributes using hydrology and climate variables of critical importance to fish habitat; (ii) a reservoir thermal model for modeling the thermal structure and, consequently, the water release temperature, (iii) a stochastic weather generator to simulate weather sequences consistent with seasonal outlooks; and, (iv) a set of decision rules (i.e., 'rubric') for reservoir water releases in response to outputs from the above components. Multiple options for modifying releases at Shasta Dam were considered in the DSS, including mixing water from multiple elevations through the TCD and using different acceptable levels of risk. The DSS also incorporates forecast uncertainties and reservoir operating options to help mitigate stream temperature impacts for fish habitat, while efficiently using the reservoir water supply and cold pool storage. The use of these coupled tools in simulating impacts of future climate on stream temperature variability is also demonstrated. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of violations of thermal criteria, while ensuring maintenance of the cold pool storage throughout the summer.

Simulation of Groundwater-Level and Salinity Changes in the Eastern Shore, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, Ward E.; Pope, Jason P.; Nelms, David L.

2009-01-01

Groundwater-level and salinity changes have been simulated with a groundwater model developed and calibrated for the Eastern Shore of Virginia. The Eastern Shore is the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula that is occupied by Accomack and Northampton Counties in Virginia. Groundwater is the sole source of freshwater to the Eastern Shore, and demands for water have been increasing from domestic, industrial, agricultural, and public-supply sectors of the economy. Thus, it is important that the groundwater supply be protected from overextraction and seawater intrusion. The best way for water managers to use all of the information available is usually to compile this information into a numerical model that can simulate the response of the system to current and future stresses. A detailed description of the geology, hydrogeology, and historical groundwater extractions was compiled and entered into the numerical model. The hydrogeologic framework is composed of a surficial aquifer under unconfined conditions, a set of three aquifers and associated overlying confining units under confined conditions (the upper, middle, and lower Yorktown-Eastover Formation), and an underlying confining unit (the St. Marys Formation). An estimate of the location and depths of two major paleochannels was also included in the framework of the model. Total withdrawals from industrial, commercial, public-supply, and some agricultural wells were compiled from the period 1900 through 2003. Reported pumpage from these sources increased dramatically during the 1960s and 70s, up to currently about 4 million gallons per day. Domestic withdrawals were estimated on the basis of population census districts and were assigned spatially to the model on the assumption that domestic users are located close to roads. A numerical model was created using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) code SEAWAT to simulate both water levels and concentrations of chloride (representing salinity). The model was calibrated using 605 predevelopment and transient water-level observations that are associated predominantly with 20 observation nests of wells sited across the study area. Sampling for groundwater chemistry at these sites revealed that chloride has not increased significantly in the last 20 years. Environmental tracers in the samples also indicated that the water in the surficial aquifer is typically years to decades old, whereas water in the confined aquifers is typically centuries to millennia old. The calibration procedure yielded distributions of hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients of the aquifers and confining units that are based on 21 pilot points, but vary smoothly across the study area. The estimated values are consistent with other measurements of these properties measured previously on cores and during hydraulic tests at various well fields. Simulations performed with the model demonstrated that the calibrated model can reproduce the observed historical water levels fairly well (R2 = 0.93). The chloride concentrations were also simulated, but a match with chloride concentrations was more difficult to achieve (R2 = 0.16) because of the lack of sufficient data and the unknown exact behavior of the entire transition zone in the millennia leading up to the present day. Future pumping scenarios were simulated through 2050, with pumping set to either 2003 rates or total permitted withdrawal rates. Water levels in 2050 are predicted to be lower than current levels by a few feet where stresses are currently heaviest but potentially by tens of feet if total permitted withdrawals are extracted at current low-stressed sites. Simulations of chloride concentrations through 2050 revealed some potential for seawater intrusion in the areas of Cape Charles, Chincoteague, east of the town of Exmore, and east of the town of Accomac, but precise estimates of concentration increases are highly uncertain. Simulation results were also used to estimate that the down

Managing Boulder Colorado's Water Supply to Address Risks from Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, J. B.; Strzepek, K.; Rozaklis, L.; Ellinghouse, C.; Hallett, K. C.

2008-12-01

Stratus Consulting, the City of Boulder, the University of Colorado and AMEC Consulting (formerly Hydrosphere) studied the impacts of climate change on Boulder, Colorado's water supply. The City of Boulder's Water Resources Coordinator was closely involved in the design of the study and the analysis of results. The work, funded by a grant from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration to Stratus Consulting, is an example of a successful collaboration between municipal, academic, government, and professional institutes. This study combines the potential impacts of climate change with long-term climate variability to examine their effects on the water supply of one community. The study team examined outputs from general circulation models (GCMs; supplied by the National Center for Atmospheric Research) for grid boxes that include Boulder, Colorado, and selected the wettest model, the driest model, and a middle model. Estimates of climate change for 20-year periods centering on 2030 and 2070 were used. In addition, 437-year (1566- 2002) reconstructions of streamflow in Boulder Creek, South Boulder Creek, and the Colorado River (conducted by Connie Woodhouse) were used. A "nearest neighbor" approach was used to select years in the observed climate record that resemble the paleoclimate reconstructions. Average monthly GCM changes in temperature and precipitation for 2030 and 2070 were combined with multiple recreations of the paleoclimate record to simulate the combined effects of change in climate and paleoclimate variability. Using Boulder's water management model (which incorporates supply and demand for water and water rights) and accounting for population growth in Boulder and changes in demand for crop irrigation, the study found that wet and "middle" scenarios had little effect on the reliability of Boulder's water supply. But reduced precipitation scenarios resulted in violations of some of Boulder's water supply reliability criteria, which give goals for the frequency of providing specified levels of service (e.g., for indoor use, lawns). In general, Boulder is in a relatively good position to adapt to climate change because it has relatively senior water rights and can fill its reservoirs during later winter and spring months when runoff is projected to increase.

Predicting growth of the healthy infant using a genome scale metabolic model.

PubMed

Nilsson, Avlant; Mardinoglu, Adil; Nielsen, Jens

2017-01-01

An estimated 165 million children globally have stunted growth, and extensive growth data are available. Genome scale metabolic models allow the simulation of molecular flux over each metabolic enzyme, and are well adapted to analyze biological systems. We used a human genome scale metabolic model to simulate the mechanisms of growth and integrate data about breast-milk intake and composition with the infant's biomass and energy expenditure of major organs. The model predicted daily metabolic fluxes from birth to age 6 months, and accurately reproduced standard growth curves and changes in body composition. The model corroborates the finding that essential amino and fatty acids do not limit growth, but that energy is the main growth limiting factor. Disruptions to the supply and demand of energy markedly affected the predicted growth, indicating that elevated energy expenditure may be detrimental. The model was used to simulate the metabolic effect of mineral deficiencies, and showed the greatest growth reduction for deficiencies in copper, iron, and magnesium ions which affect energy production through oxidative phosphorylation. The model and simulation method were integrated to a platform and shared with the research community. The growth model constitutes another step towards the complete representation of human metabolism, and may further help improve the understanding of the mechanisms underlying stunting.

Damage and Loss Estimation for Natural Gas Networks: The Case of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çaktı, Eser; Hancılar, Ufuk; Şeşetyan, Karin; Bıyıkoǧlu, Hikmet; Şafak, Erdal

2017-04-01

Natural gas networks are one of the major lifeline systems to support human, urban and industrial activities. The continuity of gas supply is critical for almost all functions of modern life. Under natural phenomena such as earthquakes and landslides the damages to the system elements may lead to explosions and fires compromising human life and damaging physical environment. Furthermore, the disruption in the gas supply puts human activities at risk and also results in economical losses. This study is concerned with the performance of one of the largest natural gas distribution systems in the world. Physical damages to Istanbul's natural gas network are estimated under the most recent probabilistic earthquake hazard models available, as well as under simulated ground motions from physics based models. Several vulnerability functions are used in modelling damages to system elements. A first-order assessment of monetary losses to Istanbul's natural gas distribution network is also attempted.

Cost-effective strategy to mitigate transportation disruptions in supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albertzeth, G.; Pujawan, I. N.

2018-04-01

Supply chain disruptions have gained significant attention by scholars. But, even though transportation plays a central role in supply chain, only few studies address transportation disruptions. This research demonstrates a real case of an order delivery process from a focal company (FC) to a single distributor, where transportation disruptions stochastically occurs. Considering the possibility of sales loss during the disruption duration, we proposed a redundant stock, flexible route, and combined flexibility-redundancy (ReFlex) as mitigation strategies and a base case as a risk acceptance strategy. The objective is to find out the best strategy that promotes cost-effectiveness against transportation disruptions. To fulfill this objective, we use simulation modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) as our research method. We simulate the delivery process of 5 brands using each strategy to produce two different responses: loss of sales percentage and the incurred costs. Next, using these responses, we evaluate and compare the cost-effectiveness ratio of each strategy using CEA. We found that redundant stock gave the best effectiveness on all brands, ReFlex as the second best, while flexible route gave the least effectiveness. Finally, we recommend which strategy should be applied based on the decision maker willingness to pay.

Exhibit D modular design attitude control system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chichester, F.

1984-01-01

A dynamically equivalent four body approximation of the NASTRAN finite element model supplied for hybrid deployable truss to support the digital computer simulation of the ten body model of the flexible space platform that incorporates the four body truss model were investigated. Coefficients for sensitivity of state variables of the linearized model of the three axes rotational dynamics of the prototype flexible spacecraft were generated with respect to the model's parameters. Software changes required to accommodate addition of another rigid body to the five body model of the rotational dynamics of the prototype flexible spacecraft were evaluated.

Internal services simulation control in 220/110kV power transformer station Mintia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciulica, D.; Rob, R.

2018-01-01

The main objectives in developing the electric transport and distribution networks infrastructure are satisfying the electric energy demand, ensuring the continuity of supply to customers, minimizing electricity losses in the transmission and distribution networks of public interest. This paper presents simulations in functioning of the internal services system 400/230 V ac in the 220/110 kV power transformer station Mintia. Using simulations in Visual Basic, the following premises are taken into consideration. All the ac consumers of the 220/110 kV power transformer station Mintia will be supplied by three 400/230 V transformers for internal services which can mutual reserve. In case of damaging at one transformer, the others are able to assume the entire consumption using automatic release of reserves. The simulation program studies three variants in which the continuity of supply to customers are ensured. As well, by simulations, all the functioning situations are analyzed in detail.

Theory, Solution Methods, and Implementation of the HERMES Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reaugh, John E.; White, Bradley W.; Curtis, John P.

The HERMES (high explosive response to mechanical stimulus) model was developed over the past decade to enable computer simulation of the mechanical and subsequent energetic response of explosives and propellants to mechanical insults such as impacts, perforations, drops, and falls. The model is embedded in computer simulation programs that solve the non-linear, large deformation equations of compressible solid and fluid flow in space and time. It is implemented as a user-defined model, which returns the updated stress tensor and composition that result from the simulation supplied strain tensor change. Although it is multi-phase, in that gas and solid species aremore » present, it is single-velocity, in that the gas does not flow through the porous solid. More than 70 time-dependent variables are made available for additional analyses and plotting. The model encompasses a broad range of possible responses: mechanical damage with no energetic response, and a continuous spectrum of degrees of violence including delayed and prompt detonation. This paper describes the basic workings of the model.« less

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow at US Marine Corps Air Station, Cherry Point, North Carolina, 1987-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eimers, J.L.; Daniel, C. C.; Coble, R.W.

1994-01-01

Geophysical and lithologic well-log data from 30 wells and chloride data, and water-level data from oil-test wells, supply wells, and observation wells were evaluated to define the hydrogeologic framework at the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station, Cherry Point, North Carolina. Elements of the hydrogeologic framework important to this study include six aquifers and their respective confining units. In descending order, these aquifers are the surficial, Yorktown, Pungo River, upper and lower Castle Hayne, and Beaufort. The upper and lower Castle Hayne and Beaufort aquifers and related confining units are relatively continuous throughout the study area. The surficial, Yorktown, Pungo River, and upper and lower Castle Hayne aquifers contain freshwater. The upper and lower Castle Hayne aquifers serve as the Air Station?s principal supply of freshwater. However, the lower Castle Hayne aquifer contains brackish water near its base and there is potential for upward movement of this water to supply wells completed in this aquifer. The potential for brackish-water encroachment is greatest if wells are screened too deep in the lower Castle Hayne aquifer or if pumping rates are too high. Lateral movement of brackish water into aquifers incised by estuarine streams is also possible if ground-water flow gradients toward these bodies are reversed by pumping. The potential for the reversed movement of water from the surficial aquifer downward to the water-supply aquifer is greatest in areas where clay confining units are missing. These missing clay units could indicate the presence of a paleochannel of the Neuse River. A quasi three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model was constructed and calibrated to simulate conditions at and in the vicinity of the Air Station for the period of 1987-90. Comparisons of 94 observed and computed heads were made, and the average difference between them is -0.2 feet with a root mean square error of 5.7 feet. An analysis was made to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the absence of the Yorktown and Pungo River confining units in a 1-square-mile area in the southern part of the Air Station. This analysis resulted in a maximum simulated head increase of 2 feet in one 0.11-square-mile model cell in the Pungo River aquifer.

Modeling and Simulation of Microelectrode-Retina Interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckerman, M

2002-11-30

The goal of the retinal prosthesis project is the development of an implantable microelectrode array that can be used to supply visually-driven electrical input to cells in the retina, bypassing nonfunctional rod and cone cells, thereby restoring vision to blind individuals. This goal will be achieved through the study of the fundamentals of electrical engineering, vision research, and biomedical engineering with the aim of acquiring the knowledge needed to engineer a high-density microelectrode-tissue hybrid sensor that will restore vision to millions of blind persons. The modeling and simulation task within this project is intended to address the question how bestmore » to stimulate, and communicate with, cells in the retina using implanted microelectrodes.« less

Simulated effects of alternative withdrawal strategies on groundwater flow in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basins, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Daryll A.; Carleton, Glen B.; Buxton, Debra E.; Walker, Richard L.; Shourds, Jennifer L.; Reilly, Pamela A.

2012-01-01

Groundwater is essential for water supply and plays a critical role in maintaining the environmental health of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in the Atlantic Coastal basins of New Jersey. The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand are major sources of groundwater in the area, and each faces different water-supply concerns. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), conducted a study to simulate the effects of withdrawals in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and to evaluate potential scenarios. The study area encompasses Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. The major hydrogeologic units affecting water supply in the study area are the surficial Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, a thick diatomaceous clay confining unit in the upper part of Kirkwood Formation; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of the Kirkwood Formation. Hydrogeologic data from 18 aquifer tests and specific capacity data from 230 wells were analyzed to provide horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers. Groundwater withdrawals are greatest from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, and 65 percent of the water is used for public supply. Groundwater withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand are about half those from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. Ninety-five percent of the withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand is used for public supply. Data from six streamgaging stations and 51 low-flow partial record sites were used to estimate base flow in the area. Base flow ranges from 60 to 92 percent of streamflow. A groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand was developed and calibrated using water-level data from 148 wells and base-flow data from 22 gaging or low-flow partial record stations. The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system within the Great Egg Harbor River and the Mullica River Basins was simulated on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2006. An existing regional model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was revised to provide boundary conditions for the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basin model (referred to as the Great Egg-Mullica model). In the Great Egg-Mullica model, monthly groundwater recharge rates used in the model ranged from 10-15 inches per year in 2001 to 20-25 inches per year in 2005. The mean-absolute error for 10 of the 14 long-term hydrographs used in model calibration was less than 5 ft. Groundwater flow budgets for the Great Egg-Mullica model calibration periods, May 2005 and September 2006, and for the entire model calibration period 1998 to 2006, showed that nearly 70 percent of the water entering the Atlantic City 800-foot sand came from the horizontal connection with the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in updip areas. The groundwater flow model was used to simulate scenarios under three possible conditions: average 1998 to 2006 withdrawals (Average scenario), full-allocation withdrawals (Full Allocation scenario), and projected 2050-demand withdrawals (2050 Demand scenario). Withdrawals in the Full Allocation scenario are nearly twice the withdrawals from the Average scenario, primarily because of the potential for large agricultural withdrawals if all allocations are used. Withdrawals for the 2050 Demand scenario are about 50 percent greater than those for the Average scenario, primarily due to expected increases in withdrawals for public supply. Monthly base-flow depletion criteria were determined using the Low-Flow Margin method, currently under consideration by NJDEP, to estimate available water on an annual basis at the Hydrologic Unit Code 11 (HUC11) level and to determine whether a water-supply deficit exists. Simulations of various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios were made using the calibrated model, and results were compared with baseline conditions (no withdrawals) to determine where and when base-flow deficits may be occurring and may be expected to occur in the future. Scenarios were simulated to assess base-flow depletion that could occur from different groundwater-withdrawal situations. In the Average scenario, deficits occurred in 7 of the 14 subbasins. In the Full Allocation scenario, deficits occurred in 11 of the subbasins. In the 2050 Demand scenario, deficits occurred in 9 of the 14 subbasins. The largest deficits occurred in the Absecon Creek subbasin because the base-flow depletion criteria for this subbasin is small due to the surface-water diversions that are already occurring there and because existing groundwater withdrawals in the subbasin have resulted in base-flow depletion under current (1998-2006) conditions. Three adjusted scenarios, variations of the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios, were simulated; for the adjusted scenarios, the withdrawals were modified in stages with the intent to successively eliminate or minimize the base-flow deficits. Modifications included shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, implementing seasonal conjunctive use of shallow and deep aquifers, and specifying reductions in withdrawals within a HUC11 subbasin in deficit. The adjusted scenarios are intended to show the relative effectiveness of each of the three approaches in reducing the deficits. Most of the deficits under the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios were eliminated by reductions in withdrawals or allocations. Shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system or seasonal conjunctive use did not eliminate deficits for any subbasin. Reductions in withdrawals accounted for more than 95 percent of the total reduction of deficits in all but one subbasin.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Public-Supply Wells to Contamination: Central Valley Aquifer System near Modesto, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jagucki, Martha L.; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Burow, Karen R.; Eberts, Sandra M.

2009-01-01

This fact sheet highlights findings from the vulnerability study of a public-supply well in Modesto, California. The well selected for study pumps on average about 1,600 gallons per minute from the Central Valley aquifer system during peak summer demand. Water samples were collected at the public-supply well and at monitoring wells installed in the Modesto vicinity. Samples from the public-supply wellhead contained the undesirable constituents uranium, nitrate, arsenic, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and pesticides, although none were present at concentrations exceeding drinking-water standards. Of these contaminants, uranium and nitrate pose the most significant water-quality risk to the public-supply well because human activities have caused concentrations in groundwater to increase over time. Overall, study findings point to four primary factors that affect the movement and (or) fate of contaminants and the vulnerability of the public-supply well in Modesto: (1) groundwater age (how long ago water entered, or recharged, the aquifer); (2) irrigation and agricultural and municipal pumping that drives contaminants downward into the primary production zone of the aquifer; (3) short-circuiting of contaminated water down the public-supply well during the low-pumping season; and (4) natural geochemical conditions of the aquifer. A local-scale computer model of groundwater flow and transport to the public-supply well was constructed to simulate long-term nitrate and uranium concentrations reaching the well. With regard to nitrate, two conflicting processes influence concentrations in the area contributing recharge to the well: (1) Beneath land that is being farmed or has recently been farmed (within the last 10 to 20 years), downward-moving irrigation waters contain elevated nitrate concentrations; yet (2) the proportion of agricultural land has decreased and the proportion of urban land has increased since 1960. Urban land use is associated with low nitrate concentrations in recharge (3.1 milligrams per liter). Results of the simulation indicate that nitrate concentrations in the public-supply well peaked in the late 1990s and will decrease slightly from the current level of 5.5 milligrams per liter during the next 100 years. A lag time of 20 to 30 years between peak nitrate concentrations in recharge and peak concentrations in the well is the result of the wide range of ages of water reaching the public-supply well combined with changing nitrogen input concentrations over time. As for uranium, simulation results show that concentrations in the public-supply well will likely approach the Maximum Contaminant Level of 30 micrograms per liter over time; however, it will take more than 100 years because of the contribution of old water at depth in the public-supply well that dilutes uranium concentrations in shallower water entering the well. This allows time to evaluate management strategies and to alter well-construction or pumping strategies to prevent uranium concentrations from exceeding the drinking-water standard.

Two-phase simulation-based location-allocation optimization of biomass storage distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study presents a two-phase simulation-based framework for finding the optimal locations of biomass storage facilities that is a very critical link on the biomass supply chain, which can help to solve biorefinery concerns (e.g. steady supply, uniform feedstock properties, stable feedstock costs,...

Simulation of proposed increases in ground-water withdrawals on the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, New Jersey coastal plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Daryll A.

2006-01-01

The confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand and the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system (surficial aquifer) are major sources of water for southeastern New Jersey. Because of recent concerns about streamflow depletion resulting from ground-water withdrawals and the potential ecological effects on stream habitat in the area, the focus on future withdrawals has been shifted away from the surficial aquifer to the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand until the effects of increased withdrawals from the surficial aquifer can be investigated. A study was conducted to evaluate the effects of seven proposed increases in ground-water withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand and the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system on the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. The proposed withdrawals are increases above the 2004 allocated rates (full allocation). The effects of full-allocation ground-water withdrawals and the cumulative effect of withdrawals for each of seven proposed increases in withdrawals were simulated using three previously published ground-water flow models: the New Jersey Coastal Plain Regional Aquifer System Analysis model, the Coastal Plain Optimization model, and a model of the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in Atlantic County, New Jersey. These models were used to simulate changes in water levels, the source supplying the increased ground-water flow, and the effects on saltwater movement towards production wells in Cape May County as a result of the proposed increased withdrawals at proposed or existing wells. The results of the simulations represent the effects of the proposed increase from full-allocation withdrawals to an additional 1,825 Mgal/yr (million gallons per year) from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand and an additional 1,045 Mgal/yr from the deep part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system near the updip limit of the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Most of the simulated decline in water levels in Atlantic County occurred as the result of the proposed increased withdrawals simulated for the New Jersey American Water Company wells. Simulated declines in water levels in Cape May were caused mainly by the simulated increased withdrawals for the Cape May City Desalination Plant wells. The additional water to supply the proposed increases in the scenarios was primarily horizontal flow from the unconfined updip part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, which accounted for 63 percent of the inflow, and flow from the overlying Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system into the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, which supplied 27 percent of the additional water. Because the withdrawals were made from the confined aquifer and the deeper part of the unconfined aquifer, the effect on streamflow was substantially less than would have occurred had the withdrawals been made directly from the shallower parts of the unconfined aquifer. The travel times from the 250-mg/L isochlor to production wells in Stone Harbor were longer as a result of all the additional withdrawals. For some scenarios, withdrawals in Atlantic County caused the saltwater to move slightly faster towards the production wells. These effects were offset by the increase in travel time caused by the potential increased withdrawals simulated for the Cape May City desalination wells, which either diverted water towards the desalination wells or increased the travel time towards production wells.

Development of the IBSAL-SimMOpt Method for the Optimization of Quality in a Corn Stover Supply Chain

DOE PAGES

Chavez, Hernan; Castillo-Villar, Krystel; Webb, Erin

2017-08-01

Variability on the physical characteristics of feedstock has a relevant effect on the reactor’s reliability and operating cost. Most of the models developed to optimize biomass supply chains have failed to quantify the effect of biomass quality and preprocessing operations required to meet biomass specifications on overall cost and performance. The Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) model estimates the harvesting, collection, transportation, and storage cost while considering the stochastic behavior of the field-to-biorefinery supply chain. This paper proposes an IBSAL-SimMOpt (Simulation-based Multi-Objective Optimization) method for optimizing the biomass quality and costs associated with the efforts needed to meetmore » conversion technology specifications. The method is developed in two phases. For the first phase, a SimMOpt tool that interacts with the extended IBSAL is developed. For the second phase, the baseline IBSAL model is extended so that the cost for meeting and/or penalization for failing in meeting specifications are considered. The IBSAL-SimMOpt method is designed to optimize quality characteristics of biomass, cost related to activities intended to improve the quality of feedstock, and the penalization cost. A case study based on 1916 farms in Ontario, Canada is considered for testing the proposed method. Analysis of the results demonstrates that this method is able to find a high-quality set of non-dominated solutions.« less

Development of the IBSAL-SimMOpt Method for the Optimization of Quality in a Corn Stover Supply Chain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavez, Hernan; Castillo-Villar, Krystel; Webb, Erin

Variability on the physical characteristics of feedstock has a relevant effect on the reactor’s reliability and operating cost. Most of the models developed to optimize biomass supply chains have failed to quantify the effect of biomass quality and preprocessing operations required to meet biomass specifications on overall cost and performance. The Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) model estimates the harvesting, collection, transportation, and storage cost while considering the stochastic behavior of the field-to-biorefinery supply chain. This paper proposes an IBSAL-SimMOpt (Simulation-based Multi-Objective Optimization) method for optimizing the biomass quality and costs associated with the efforts needed to meetmore » conversion technology specifications. The method is developed in two phases. For the first phase, a SimMOpt tool that interacts with the extended IBSAL is developed. For the second phase, the baseline IBSAL model is extended so that the cost for meeting and/or penalization for failing in meeting specifications are considered. The IBSAL-SimMOpt method is designed to optimize quality characteristics of biomass, cost related to activities intended to improve the quality of feedstock, and the penalization cost. A case study based on 1916 farms in Ontario, Canada is considered for testing the proposed method. Analysis of the results demonstrates that this method is able to find a high-quality set of non-dominated solutions.« less

A pilot study of an in-vitro bovine trachea model of the effect of continuous positive airway pressure breathing on airway surface liquid.

PubMed

White, David E; Nates, Roy J; Bartley, Jim

2014-02-06

Continuous positive air pressure (CPAP) users frequently report troublesome symptoms of airway dryness and nasal congestion. Clinical investigations have demonstrated that supplementary humidification reduces these symptoms but the reason for their occurrence remains unexplained. Investigations using human computational air-conditioning models are unable to reproduce or quantify the apparent airway drying experienced during CPAP therapy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether augmented air pressures change overall mucosal airway surface liquid (ASL) water supply and, if so, the extent of this effect. In an original in vitro experimental set up, maximal ASL supply was determined in whole bovine trachea when exposed to simulated tidal breathing stresses over a range of air pressures. At ambient pressure, the maximal supply of ASL was found to compare well to previously published data (31.2 μl/cm2.hr). CPAP pressures from 5 cm H2O above ambient were found to reduce ASL supply by 22%. Statistical analysis (n = 8) showed a significant difference existed between the ambient and CPAP results (p < 0.0001), and that there was no significant variation between all pressurized results (p = 0.716). These findings provide preliminary data that ASL supply is reduced by CPAP therapy which may explain the airway drying symptoms associated with this therapy.

Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China's housing market fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xing-Chun; He, Ling-Yun

2015-08-01

There is a bitter controversy over what drives the housing price in China in the existing literature. In this paper, we investigate the underlying driving force behind housing price fluctuations in China, especially focusing on the role of housing demand shock with that of money supply shock in explaining housing price movements, by a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Empirical results suggest that it is housing demand, instead of money supply, that mainly drives China's housing price movements. Relevant policy implication is further discussed, namely, whether to consider the housing price fluctuations in the conduct of monetary policy. By means of the policy simulations, we find that a real house price-augmented money supply rule is a better monetary policy for China's economy stabilization. 1. Investment refers to fixed capital investment. 2. Housing price refers to national average housing price. Quarterly data on housing price during the period of our work are not directly available. However, monthly data of the value of sales on housing and sale volume on housing can be directly obtained from National Bureau of Statistics of China. We add up the monthly data and calculate one quarter's housing price by dividing the value of housing sales by its sale volume in one quarter. 3. M2 means the broad money supply in China.

Standards in Modeling and Simulation: The Next Ten Years MODSIM World Paper 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, Andrew J.; Diallo, Saikou; Sherfey, Solomon R.; Tolk, Andreas; Turnitsa, Charles D.; Petty, Mikel; Wiesel, Eric

2011-01-01

The world has moved on since the introduction of the Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) standard in the early 1980s. The cold-war maybe over but there is still a requirement to train for and analyze the next generation of threats that face the free world. With the emergence of new and more powerful computer technology and techniques means that modeling and simulation (M&S) has become an important and growing, part in satisfying this requirement. As an industry grows, the benefits from standardization within that industry grow with it. For example, it is difficult to imagine what the USA would be like without the 110 volts standard for domestic electricity supply. This paper contains an overview of the outcomes from a recent workshop to investigate the possible future of M&S standards within the federal government.

Delineation of Areas Contributing Water to the Dry Brook Public-Supply Well, South Hadley, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garabedian, Stephen P.; Stone, Janet Radway

2004-01-01

Areas contributing water to the Dry Brook public-supply well in South Hadley, Massachusetts, were delineated with a numerical ground-water-flow model that is based on geologic and hydrologic information for the confined sand and gravel aquifer pumped by the supply well. The study area is along the Connecticut River in central Massachusetts, about 12 miles north of Springfield, Massachusetts. Geologic units in the study area consist of Mesozoic-aged sedimentary and igneous bedrock, late-Pleistocene glaciolacustrine sediments, and recent alluvial deposits of the Connecticut River flood plain. Dry Brook Hill, immediately south of the supply well, is a large subaqueous lacustrine fan and delta formed during the last glacial retreat by sediment deposition into glacial Lake Hitchcock from a meltwater tunnel that was likely near where the Connecticut River cuts through the Holyoke Range. The sediments that compose the aquifer grade from very coarse sand and gravel along the northern flank of the hill, to medium sands in the body of the hill, and to finer-grained sediments along the southern flank of the hill. The interbedded and overlapping fine-grained lacustrine sediments associated with Dry Brook Hill include varved silt and clay deposits. These fine-grained sediments form a confining bed above the coarse-grained aquifer at the supply well and partially extend under the Connecticut River adjacent to the supply well. Ground-water flow in the aquifer supplying water to Dry Brook well was simulated with the U.S. Geological Survey ground-water-flow modeling code MODFLOW. The Dry Brook aquifer model was calibrated to drawdown data collected from 8 observation wells during an aquifer test conducted by pumping the supply well for 10 days at a rate of 122.2 cubic feet per minute (ft3/min; 914 gallons per minute) and to water levels collected from observation wells across the study area. Generally, the largest hydraulic conductivity values used in the model were in the sand and gravel aquifer near the Dry Brook well, which is consistent with the geologic information. Results of aquifer-test simulation indicated that spatially variable aquifer hydraulic properties and boundary conditions affected heads and ground-water flow near the well. A comparison and analysis of water-level fluctuations in study area wells to fluctuations in the Connecticut River indicated a hydraulic connection of the aquifer with the river, which is also consistent with geologic information. Simulated ground-water levels indicated that most ground water in the study area flowed toward and discharged to the Connecticut River and the Dry Brook well. Small amounts of ground water also discharged to smaller streams (Dry Brook and Bachelor Brook) in the study area. Areas contributing water to the well were delineated with the MODPATH particle-tracking routine. Results of the contributing-area analysis indicated that the greatest sources of water to the well were recharge in the Dry Brook Hill area and infiltration of Connecticut River water in an area beyond the extent of the confining bed where the aquifer is in hydraulic connection with the river. The amount of water entering the Dry Brook well from recharge dominated at a lower pumping rate (40.0 ft3/min); about 90 percent of the pumped water originated from recharge and boundary flow, and infiltration from the Connecticut River supplied the remaining 10 percent. At a high pumping rate (122.2 ft3/min), however, about half of the water pumped from the Dry Brook well originated from recharge and boundary flow (49 percent), and half originated from infiltration of water from the Connecticut River (51 percent). Results of a sensitivity analysis of the extent of areas contributing water to the Dry Brook well when pumped at 122.2 ft3/min indicated that the size of these areas did not substantially change when aquifer properties were varied. In contrast, however, the size of these areas changed most when the recharge

Planning dental manpower in Lebanon: scenarios for the year 2015.

PubMed

Doughan, B; Kassak, K; Bourgeois, D

2005-01-01

The requirements for dentists in Lebanon for the year 2015 were estimated using the World Health Organization/World Dental Federation planning model. The aim was to help decision- and policy-makers in Lebanon to plan strategically for the supply of dental personnel in line with the recommendations of the Oral Health National Plan guidelines from 1995. Assumptions based on previous research in selected populations were taken to support the simulation. The number of dentists required for Lebanon in the year 2015 was estimated to be 2715 while the projected supply will be 6176. Urgent measures are needed to reduce the potential oversupply of dentists in this country.

To what extent may changes in the root system architecture of Arabidopsis thaliana grown under contrasted homogenous nitrogen regimes be explained by changes in carbon supply? A modelling approach.

PubMed

Brun, François; Richard-Molard, Céline; Pagès, Loïc; Chelle, Michaël; Ney, Bertrand

2010-05-01

Root system architecture adapts to low nitrogen (N) nutrition. Some adaptations may be mediated by modifications of carbon (C) fluxes. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that changes in root system architecture under different N regimes may be accounted for by using simple hypotheses of C allocation within the root system of Arabidopsis thaliana. With that purpose, a model during vegetative growth was developed that predicted the main traits of root system architecture (total root length, lateral root number, and specific root length). Different experimental data sets crossing three C levels and two N homogenous nutrition levels were generated. Parameters were estimated from an experiment carried out under medium C and high N conditions. They were then checked under other CxN conditions. It was found that the model was able to simulate correctly C effects on root architecture in both high and low N nutrition conditions, with the same parameter values. It was concluded that C flux modifications explained the major part of root system adaptation to N supply, even if they were not sufficient to simulate some changes, such as specific root length.

Game theory competition analysis of reservoir water supply and hydropower generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.

2013-12-01

The total installed capacity of the power generation systems in Taiwan is about 41,000 MW. Hydropower is one of the most important renewable energy sources, with hydropower generation capacity of about 4,540 MW. The aim of this research is to analyze competition between water supply and hydropower generation in water-energy systems. The major relationships between water and energy systems include hydropower generation by water, energy consumption for water system operation, and water consumption for energy system. In this research, a game-theoretic Cournot model is formulated to simulate oligopolistic competition between water supply, hydropower generation, and co-fired power generation in water-energy systems. A Nash equilibrium of the competitive market is derived and solved by GAMS with PATH solver. In addition, a case study analyzing the competition among water supply and hydropower generation of De-ji and Ku-Kuan reservoirs, Taipower, Star Energy, and Star-Yuan power companies in central Taiwan is conducted.

Thinking in Pharmacy Practice: A Study of Community Pharmacists’ Clinical Reasoning in Medication Supply Using the Think-Aloud Method

PubMed Central

Croft, Hayley; Gilligan, Conor; Rasiah, Rohan; Levett-Jones, Tracy; Schneider, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Medication review and supply by pharmacists involves both cognitive and technical skills related to the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. The cognitive ability of pharmacists to recall, synthesise and memorise information is a critical aspect of safe and optimal medicines use, yet few studies have investigated the clinical reasoning and decision-making processes pharmacists use when supplying prescribed medicines. The objective of this study was to examine the patterns and processes of pharmacists’ clinical reasoning and to identify the information sources used, when making decisions about the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. Ten community pharmacists participated in a simulation in which they were required to review a prescription and make decisions about the safety and appropriateness of supplying the prescribed medicines to the patient, whilst at the same time thinking aloud about the tasks required. Following the simulation each pharmacist was asked a series of questions to prompt retrospective thinking aloud using video-stimulated recall. The simulated consultation and retrospective interview were recorded and transcribed for thematic analysis. All of the pharmacists made a safe and appropriate supply of two prescribed medicines to the simulated patient. Qualitative analysis identified seven core thinking processes used during the supply process: considering prescription in context, retrieving information, identifying medication-related issues, processing information, collaborative planning, decision making and reflection; and align closely with other health professionals. The insights from this study have implications for enhancing awareness of decision making processes in pharmacy practice and informing teaching and assessment approaches in medication supply. PMID:29301223

Thinking in Pharmacy Practice: A Study of Community Pharmacists' Clinical Reasoning in Medication Supply Using the Think-Aloud Method.

PubMed

Croft, Hayley; Gilligan, Conor; Rasiah, Rohan; Levett-Jones, Tracy; Schneider, Jennifer

2017-12-31

Medication review and supply by pharmacists involves both cognitive and technical skills related to the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. The cognitive ability of pharmacists to recall, synthesise and memorise information is a critical aspect of safe and optimal medicines use, yet few studies have investigated the clinical reasoning and decision-making processes pharmacists use when supplying prescribed medicines. The objective of this study was to examine the patterns and processes of pharmacists' clinical reasoning and to identify the information sources used, when making decisions about the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. Ten community pharmacists participated in a simulation in which they were required to review a prescription and make decisions about the safety and appropriateness of supplying the prescribed medicines to the patient, whilst at the same time thinking aloud about the tasks required. Following the simulation each pharmacist was asked a series of questions to prompt retrospective thinking aloud using video-stimulated recall. The simulated consultation and retrospective interview were recorded and transcribed for thematic analysis. All of the pharmacists made a safe and appropriate supply of two prescribed medicines to the simulated patient. Qualitative analysis identified seven core thinking processes used during the supply process: considering prescription in context, retrieving information, identifying medication-related issues, processing information, collaborative planning, decision making and reflection; and align closely with other health professionals. The insights from this study have implications for enhancing awareness of decision making processes in pharmacy practice and informing teaching and assessment approaches in medication supply.

Learning to Select Supplier Portfolios for Service Supply Chain

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rui; Li, Jingfei; Wu, Shaoyu; Meng, Dabin

2016-01-01

The research on service supply chain has attracted more and more focus from both academia and industrial community. In a service supply chain, the selection of supplier portfolio is an important and difficult problem due to the fact that a supplier portfolio may include multiple suppliers from a variety of fields. To address this problem, we propose a novel supplier portfolio selection method based on a well known machine learning approach, i.e., Ranking Neural Network (RankNet). In the proposed method, we regard the problem of supplier portfolio selection as a ranking problem, which integrates a large scale of decision making features into a ranking neural network. Extensive simulation experiments are conducted, which demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed supplier portfolio selection model can be applied in a real corporation easily in the future. PMID:27195756

Research on Matching Method of Power Supply Parameters for Dual Energy Source Electric Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Q.; Luo, M. J.; Zhang, S. K.; Liao, M. W.

2018-03-01

A new type of power source is proposed, which is based on the traffic signal matching method of the dual energy source power supply composed of the batteries and the supercapacitors. First, analyzing the power characteristics is required to meet the excellent dynamic characteristics of EV, studying the energy characteristics is required to meet the mileage requirements and researching the physical boundary characteristics is required to meet the physical conditions of the power supply. Secondly, the parameter matching design with the highest energy efficiency is adopted to select the optimal parameter group with the method of matching deviation. Finally, the simulation analysis of the vehicle is carried out in MATLABSimulink, The mileage and energy efficiency of dual energy sources are analyzed in different parameter models, and the rationality of the matching method is verified.

Large-scale coastal and fluvial models constrain the late Holocene evolution of the Ebro Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nienhuis, Jaap H.; Ashton, Andrew D.; Kettner, Albert J.; Giosan, Liviu

2017-09-01

The distinctive plan-view shape of the Ebro Delta coast reveals a rich morphologic history. The degree to which the form and depositional history of the Ebro and other deltas represent autogenic (internal) dynamics or allogenic (external) forcing remains a prominent challenge for paleo-environmental reconstructions. Here we use simple coastal and fluvial morphodynamic models to quantify paleo-environmental changes affecting the Ebro Delta over the late Holocene. Our findings show that these models are able to broadly reproduce the Ebro Delta morphology, with simple fluvial and wave climate histories. Based on numerical model experiments and the preserved and modern shape of the Ebro Delta plain, we estimate that a phase of rapid shoreline progradation began approximately 2100 years BP, requiring approximately a doubling in coarse-grained fluvial sediment supply to the delta. River profile simulations suggest that an instantaneous and sustained increase in coarse-grained sediment supply to the delta requires a combined increase in both flood discharge and sediment supply from the drainage basin. The persistence of rapid delta progradation throughout the last 2100 years suggests an anthropogenic control on sediment supply and flood intensity. Using proxy records of the North Atlantic Oscillation, we do not find evidence that changes in wave climate aided this delta expansion. Our findings highlight how scenario-based investigations of deltaic systems using simple models can assist first-order quantitative paleo-environmental reconstructions, elucidating the effects of past human influence and climate change, and allowing a better understanding of the future of deltaic landforms.

Key parameters of the sediment surface morphodynamics in an estuary - An assessment of model solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2018-05-01

Large-scale geomorphological evolution of an estuarine system was simulated by means of a hybrid estuarine sedimentation model (HESM) applied to the Guadiana Estuary, in Southwest Iberia. The model simulates the decadal-scale morphodynamics of the system under environmental forcing, using a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters, constrained by empirical knowledge of estuarine sedimentary dynamics and topography. The key controlling parameters of the model are bed friction (f), current velocity power of the erosion rate function (N), and sea-level rise rate. An assessment of sensitivity of the simulated sediment surface elevation (SSE) change to these controlling parameters was performed. The model predicted the spatial differentiation of accretion and erosion, the latter especially marked in the mudflats within mean sea level and low tide level and accretion was mainly in a subtidal channel. The average SSE change mutually depended on both the friction coefficient and power of the current velocity. Analysis of the average annual SSE change suggests that the state of intertidal and subtidal compartments of the estuarine system vary differently according to the dominant processes (erosion and accretion). As the Guadiana estuarine system shows dominant erosional behaviour in the context of sea-level rise and sediment supply reduction after the closure of the Alqueva Dam, the most plausible sets of parameter values for the Guadiana Estuary are N = 1.8 and f = 0.8f0, or N = 2 and f = f0, where f0 is the empirically estimated value. For these sets of parameter values, the relative errors in SSE change did not exceed ±20% in 73% of simulation cells in the studied area. Such a limit of accuracy can be acceptable for an idealized modelling of coastal evolution in response to uncertain sea-level rise scenarios in the context of reduced sediment supply due to flow regulation. Therefore, the idealized but cost-effective HESM model will be suitable for estimating the morphological impacts of sea-level rise on estuarine systems on a decadal timescale.

Computational analysis of nonlinearities within dynamics of cable-based driving systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghelache, G. D.; Nastac, S.

2017-08-01

This paper deals with computational nonlinear dynamics of mechanical systems containing some flexural parts within the actuating scheme, and, especially, the situations of the cable-based driving systems were treated. It was supposed both functional nonlinearities and the real characteristic of the power supply, in order to obtain a realistically computer simulation model being able to provide very feasible results regarding the system dynamics. It was taken into account the transitory and stable regimes during a regular exploitation cycle. The authors present a particular case of a lift system, supposed to be representatively for the objective of this study. The simulations were made based on the values of the essential parameters acquired from the experimental tests and/or the regular practice in the field. The results analysis and the final discussions reveal the correlated dynamic aspects within the mechanical parts, the driving system, and the power supply, whole of these supplying potential sources of particular resonances, within some transitory phases of the working cycle, and which can affect structural and functional dynamics. In addition, it was underlines the influences of computational hypotheses on the both quantitative and qualitative behaviour of the system. Obviously, the most significant consequence of this theoretical and computational research consist by developing an unitary and feasible model, useful to dignify the nonlinear dynamic effects into the systems with cable-based driving scheme, and hereby to help an optimization of the exploitation regime including a dynamics control measures.

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

A benchmark system to optimize our defense against an attack on the US food supply using the Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program.

PubMed

Hodoh, Ofia; Dallas, Cham E; Williams, Paul; Jaine, Andrew M; Harris, Curt

2015-01-01

A predictive system was developed and tested in a series of exercises with the objective of evaluating the preparedness and effectiveness of the multiagency response to food terrorism attacks. A computerized simulation model, Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program (RRECAP), was developed to identify the key factors that influence the outcomes of an attack and quantify the relative reduction of such outcomes caused by each factor. The model was evaluated in a set of Tabletop and Full-Scale Exercises that simulate biological and chemical attacks on the food system. More than 300 participants representing more than 60 federal, state, local, and private sector agencies and organizations. The exercises showed that agencies could use RRECAP to identify and prioritize their advance preparation to mitigate such attacks with minimal expense. RRECAP also demonstrated the relative utility and limitations of the ability of medical resources to treat patients if responders do not recognize and mitigate the attack rapidly, and the exercise results showed that proper advance preparation would reduce these deficiencies. Using computer simulation prediction of the medical outcomes of food supply attacks to identify optimal remediation activities and quantify the benefits of various measures provides a significant tool to agencies in both the public and private sector as they seek to prepare for such an attack.

Proactive modeling of water quality impacts of extreme precipitation events in a drinking water reservoir.

PubMed

Jeznach, Lillian C; Hagemann, Mark; Park, Mi-Hyun; Tobiason, John E

2017-10-01

Extreme precipitation events are of concern to managers of drinking water sources because these occurrences can affect both water supply quantity and quality. However, little is known about how these low probability events impact organic matter and nutrient loads to surface water sources and how these loads may impact raw water quality. This study describes a method for evaluating the sensitivity of a water body of interest from watershed input simulations under extreme precipitation events. An example application of the method is illustrated using the Wachusett Reservoir, an oligo-mesotrophic surface water reservoir in central Massachusetts and a major drinking water supply to metropolitan Boston. Extreme precipitation event simulations during the spring and summer resulted in total organic carbon, UV-254 (a surrogate measurement for reactive organic matter), and total algae concentrations at the drinking water intake that exceeded recorded maximums. Nutrient concentrations after storm events were less likely to exceed recorded historical maximums. For this particular reservoir, increasing inter-reservoir transfers of water with lower organic matter content after a large precipitation event has been shown in practice and in model simulations to decrease organic matter levels at the drinking water intake, therefore decreasing treatment associated oxidant demand, energy for UV disinfection, and the potential for formation of disinfection byproducts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada, 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.

2001-01-01

The demand for all uses of water in the Truckee River Basin, California and Nevada, commonly is greater than can be supplied. Storage reservoirs in the system have a maximum effective total capacity equivalent to less than two years of average river flows, so longer-term droughts can result in substantial water-supply shortages for irrigation and municipal users and may stress fish and wildlife ecosystems. Title II of Public Law (P.L.) 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides a foundation for negotiating and developing operating criteria, known as the Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA), to balance interstate and interbasin allocation of water rights among the many interests competing for water from the Truckee River. In addition to TROA, the Truckee River Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA), signed in 1996, provides for acquisition of water rights to resolve water-quality problems during low flows along the Truckee River in Nevada. Efficient execution of many of the planning, management, or environmental assessment requirements of TROA and WQSA will require detailed water-resources data coupled with sound analytical tools. Analytical modeling tools constructed and evaluated with such data could help assess effects of alternative operational scenarios related to reservoir and river operations, water-rights transfers, and changes in irrigation practices. The Truckee?Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support U.S. Department of the Interior implementation of P.L. 101-618, is developing a modeling system to support efficient water-resources planning, management, and allocation. The daily operations model documented herein is a part of the modeling system that includes a database management program, a graphical user interface program, and a program with modules that simulate river/reservoir operations and a variety of hydrologic processes. The operations module is capable of simulating lake/ reservoir and river operations including diversion of Truckee River water to the Truckee Canal for transport to the Carson River Basin. In addition to the operations and streamflow-routing modules, the modeling system is structured to allow integration of other modules, such as water-quality and precipitation-runoff modules. The USGS Truckee River Basin operations model was designed to provide simulations that allow comparison of the effects of alternative management practices or allocations on streamflow or reservoir storages in the Truckee River Basin over long periods of time. Because the model was not intended to reproduce historical streamflow or reservoir storage values, a traditional calibration that includes statistical comparisons of observed and simulated values would be problematic with this model and database. This report describes a chronology and background of decrees, agreements, and laws that affect Truckee River operational practices; the construction of the Truckee River daily operations model; the simulation of Truckee River Basin operations, both current and proposed under the draft TROA and WQSA; and suggested model improvements and limitations. The daily operations model uses Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) to simulate flow-routing and reservoir and river operations. The operations model simulates reservoir and river operations that govern streamflow in the Truckee River from Lake Tahoe to Pyramid Lake, including diversions through the Truckee Canal to Lahontan Reservoir in the Carson River Basin. A general overview is provided of daily operations and their simulation. Supplemental information that documents the extremely complex operating rules simulated by the model is available.

Stochastic Coloured Petrinet Based Healthcare Infrastructure Interdependency Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nukavarapu, Nivedita; Durbha, Surya

2016-06-01

The Healthcare Critical Infrastructure (HCI) protects all sectors of the society from hazards such as terrorism, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters. HCI plays a significant role in response and recovery across all other sectors in the event of a natural or manmade disaster. However, for its continuity of operations and service delivery HCI is dependent on other interdependent Critical Infrastructures (CI) such as Communications, Electric Supply, Emergency Services, Transportation Systems, and Water Supply System. During a mass casualty due to disasters such as floods, a major challenge that arises for the HCI is to respond to the crisis in a timely manner in an uncertain and variable environment. To address this issue the HCI should be disaster prepared, by fully understanding the complexities and interdependencies that exist in a hospital, emergency department or emergency response event. Modelling and simulation of a disaster scenario with these complexities would help in training and providing an opportunity for all the stakeholders to work together in a coordinated response to a disaster. The paper would present interdependencies related to HCI based on Stochastic Coloured Petri Nets (SCPN) modelling and simulation approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behaviour of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Designing a multistage supply chain in cross-stage reverse logistics environments: application of particle swarm optimization algorithms.

PubMed

Chiang, Tzu-An; Che, Z H; Cui, Zhihua

2014-01-01

This study designed a cross-stage reverse logistics course for defective products so that damaged products generated in downstream partners can be directly returned to upstream partners throughout the stages of a supply chain for rework and maintenance. To solve this reverse supply chain design problem, an optimal cross-stage reverse logistics mathematical model was developed. In addition, we developed a genetic algorithm (GA) and three particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms: the inertia weight method (PSOA_IWM), V(Max) method (PSOA_VMM), and constriction factor method (PSOA_CFM), which we employed to find solutions to support this mathematical model. Finally, a real case and five simulative cases with different scopes were used to compare the execution times, convergence times, and objective function values of the four algorithms used to validate the model proposed in this study. Regarding system execution time, the GA consumed more time than the other three PSOs did. Regarding objective function value, the GA, PSOA_IWM, and PSOA_CFM could obtain a lower convergence value than PSOA_VMM could. Finally, PSOA_IWM demonstrated a faster convergence speed than PSOA_VMM, PSOA_CFM, and the GA did.

Designing a Multistage Supply Chain in Cross-Stage Reverse Logistics Environments: Application of Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

PubMed Central

Chiang, Tzu-An; Che, Z. H.

2014-01-01

This study designed a cross-stage reverse logistics course for defective products so that damaged products generated in downstream partners can be directly returned to upstream partners throughout the stages of a supply chain for rework and maintenance. To solve this reverse supply chain design problem, an optimal cross-stage reverse logistics mathematical model was developed. In addition, we developed a genetic algorithm (GA) and three particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms: the inertia weight method (PSOA_IWM), V Max method (PSOA_VMM), and constriction factor method (PSOA_CFM), which we employed to find solutions to support this mathematical model. Finally, a real case and five simulative cases with different scopes were used to compare the execution times, convergence times, and objective function values of the four algorithms used to validate the model proposed in this study. Regarding system execution time, the GA consumed more time than the other three PSOs did. Regarding objective function value, the GA, PSOA_IWM, and PSOA_CFM could obtain a lower convergence value than PSOA_VMM could. Finally, PSOA_IWM demonstrated a faster convergence speed than PSOA_VMM, PSOA_CFM, and the GA did. PMID:24772026

Estimation of the recharge area contributing water to a pumped well in a glacial-drift, river-valley aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, Daniel J.

1989-01-01

The highly permeable, unconfined, glacial-drift aquifers that occupy most New England river valleys constitute the principal source of drinking water for many of the communities that obtain part or all of their public water supply from ground water. Recent events have shown that these aquifers are highly susceptible to contamination that results from a number of sources, such as seepage from wastewater lagoons, leaking petroleum-product storage tanks, and road salting. To protect the quality of water pumped from supply wells in these aquifers, it is necessary to ensure that potentially harmful contaminants do not enter the ground in the area that contributes water to the well. A high degree of protection can be achieved through the application of appropriate land-use controls within the contributing area. However, the contributing areas for most supply wells are not known. This report describes the factors that affect the size and shape of contributing areas to public supply wells and evaluates several methods that may be used to delineate contributing areas of wells in glacial-drift, river-valley aquifers. Analytical, two-dimensional numerical, and three-dimensional numerical models were used to delineate contributing areas. These methods of analysis were compared by applying them to a hypothetical aquifer having the dimensions and geometry of a typical glacial-drift, river-valley aquifer. In the model analyses, factors that control the size and shape of a contributing area were varied over ranges of values common to glacial-drift aquifers in New England. The controlling factors include the rate of well discharge, rate of recharge to the aquifer from precipitation and from adjacent till and bedrock uplands, distance of a pumping well from a stream or other potential source of induced recharge, degree of hydraulic connection of the aquifer with a stream, horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity, and degree of well penetration. Analytical methods proved easiest to apply but gave results that are considered to be less accurate than those obtainable by means of numerical-model analysis. Numerical models have the capability to more closely reflect the variable geohydrologic conditions typical of glacial-drift valley aquifers. For average conditions in the hypothetical aquifer, the analytical method predicts a contributing area limited to the well side of the river because a constant-head boundary simulated by image wells is used in the analytical model. For typical glacial-drift, river-valley aquifers, this simulation is unrealistic because drawdowns, caused by a pumping well, and the contributing area of the well can extend beneath and beyond a river or stream. A wide range of hydrologic conditions was simulated by using the two-dimensional numerical model. The resulting contributing area for a well pumped at 1.0 million gallons per day--a common pumping rate--ranged from about 0.9 to 1.8 square miles. Model analyses also show that the contributing area of pumped wells may be expected to extend to the opposite side of the river and to include significant areas of till uplands adjacent to the aquifer on both sides of the valley. Simulations done with the three-dimensional model allow a full three-dimensional delineation of the zone of contribution for a pumped well. For the relatively thin (100 feet or less) unconfined aquifers considered in this analysis, the three-dimensional model showed that the zone of contribution extended throughout the entire saturated thickness of aquifer; therefore, the two-dimensional simulations were considered adequate for delineating contributing areas in this particular hydrologic setting. For thicker aquifers, especially those having partially penetrating wells, three-dimensional models are preferable. Values for several of the factors that affect the size and shape of contributing recharge areas cannot be det

Impedance-based overcharging and gassing model for VRLA/AGM batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thele, M.; Karden, E.; Surewaard, E.; Sauer, D. U.

This paper presents for the first time an impedance-based non-linear model for lead-acid batteries that is applicable in all operational modes. An overcharging model describes the accumulation and depletion of the dissolved Pb 2+ ions. This physical model has been added to the earlier presented model to expand the model validity. To properly represent the charge acceptance during dynamic operation, a concept of "hardening crystals" has been introduced in the model. Moreover, a detailed gassing and oxygen recombination model has been integrated. A realistic simulation of the overcharging behavior is now possible. The mathematical description is given in the paper. Simplifications are introduced that allow for an efficient implementation and for model parameterization in the time domain. A comparison between experimental data and simulation results demonstrates the achieved accuracy. The model enhancement is of major importance to analyze charging strategies especially in partial-cycling operation with limited charging time, e.g. in electrically assisted or hybrid cars and autonomous power supply systems.

Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

2016-12-01

There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

Re-designing the Mozambique vaccine supply chain to improve access to vaccines.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Haidari, Leila A; Prosser, Wendy; Connor, Diana L; Bechtel, Ruth; Dipuve, Amelia; Kassim, Hidayat; Khanlawia, Balbina; Brown, Shawn T

2016-09-22

Populations and routine childhood vaccine regimens have changed substantially since supply chains were designed in the 1980s, and introducing new vaccines during the "Decade of Vaccine" may exacerbate existing bottlenecks, further inhibiting the flow of all vaccines. Working with the Mozambique Ministry of Health, our team implemented a new process that integrated HERMES computational simulation modeling and on-the-ground implementers to evaluate and improve the Mozambique vaccine supply chain using a system-re-design that integrated new supply chain structures, information technology, equipment, personnel, and policies. The alternative system design raised vaccine availability (from 66% to 93% in Gaza; from 76% to 84% in Cabo Delgado) and reduced the logistics cost per dose administered (from $0.53 to $0.32 in Gaza; from $0.38 to $0.24 in Cabo Delgado) as compared to the multi-tiered system under the current EPI. The alternative system also produced higher availability at lower costs after new vaccine introductions. Since reviewing scenarios modeling deliveries every two months in the north of Gaza, the provincial directorate has decided to pilot this approach diverging from decades of policies dictating monthly deliveries. Re-design improved not only supply chain efficacy but also efficiency, important since resources to deliver vaccines are limited. The Mozambique experience and process can serve as a model for other countries during the Decade of Vaccines. For the Decade of Vaccines, getting vaccines at affordable prices to the market is not enough. Vaccines must reach the population to be successful. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Re-designing the Mozambique vaccine supply chain to improve access to vaccines

PubMed Central

Lee, Bruce Y.; Haidari, Leila A.; Prosser, Wendy; Connor, Diana L.; Bechtel, Ruth; Dipuve, Amelia; Kassim, Hidayat; Khanlawia, Balbina; Brown, Shawn T.

2017-01-01

Introduction Populations and routine childhood vaccine regimens have changed substantially since supply chains were designed in the 1980s, and introducing new vaccines during the “Decade of Vaccine” may exacerbate existing bottlenecks, further inhibiting the flow of all vaccines. Methods Working with the Mozambique Ministry of Health, our team implemented a new process that integrated HERMES computational simulation modeling and on-the-ground implementers to evaluate and improve the Mozambique vaccine supply chain using a system-re-design that integrated new supply chain structures, information technology, equipment, personnel, and policies. Results The alternative system design raised vaccine availability (from 66% to 93% in Gaza; from 76% to 84% in Cabo Delgado) and reduced the logistics cost per dose administered (from $0.53 to $0.32 in Gaza; from $0.38 to $0.24 in Cabo Delgado) as compared to the multi-tiered system under the current EPI. The alternative system also produced higher availability at lower costs after new vaccine introductions. Since reviewing scenarios modeling deliveries every two months in the north of Gaza, the provincial directorate has decided to pilot this approach diverging from decades of policies dictating monthly deliveries. Discussion Re-design improved not only supply chain efficacy but also efficiency, important since resources to deliver vaccines are limited. The Mozambique experience and process can serve as a model for other countries during the Decade of Vaccines. For the Decade of Vaccines, getting vaccines at affordable prices to the market is not enough. Vaccines must reach the population to be successful. PMID:27576077

Surrogate Model Application to the Identification of Optimal Groundwater Exploitation Scheme Based on Regression Kriging Method—A Case Study of Western Jilin Province

PubMed Central

An, Yongkai; Lu, Wenxi; Cheng, Weiguo

2015-01-01

This paper introduces a surrogate model to identify an optimal exploitation scheme, while the western Jilin province was selected as the study area. A numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was established first, and four exploitation wells were set in the Tongyu county and Qian Gorlos county respectively so as to supply water to Daan county. Second, the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was used to collect data in the feasible region for input variables. A surrogate model of the numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was developed using the regression kriging method. An optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the minimum average drawdown of groundwater table and the minimum cost of groundwater exploitation as multi-objective functions. Finally, the surrogate model was invoked by the optimization model in the process of solving the optimization problem. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error of the groundwater table drawdown between the simulation model and the surrogate model for 10 validation samples are both lower than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The contrast between the surrogate-based simulation optimization model and the conventional simulation optimization model for solving the same optimization problem, shows the former only needs 5.5 hours, and the latter needs 25 days. The above results indicate that the surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational burden of the simulation optimization process, but also maintain high computational accuracy. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme quickly and accurately. PMID:26264008

Integrating Water Supply Constraints into Irrigated Agricultural Simulations of California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Young, Charles A.; Mehta, Vishal K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Azarderakhsh, Marzieh; Davitt, Aaron; McDonald, Kyle; Haden, Van R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2017-01-01

Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water demand from plants and water supply from irrigation systems. We coupled the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to link regional water supplies and management with field-level water demand and crop growth. WEAP-DSSAT was deployed and evaluated over Yolo County in California for corn, rice, and wheat. WEAP-DSSAT is able to reproduce the results of DSSAT under well-watered conditions and reasonably simulate observed mean yields, but has difficulty capturing yield interannual variability. Constraining irrigation supply to surface water alone reduces yields for all three crops during the 1987-1992 drought. Corn yields are reduced proportionally with water allocation, rice yield reductions are more binary based on sufficient water for flooding, and wheat yields are least sensitive to irrigation constraints as winter wheat is grown during the wet season.

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajkumar, T.; Aragon, Cecilia; Bardina, Jorge; Britten, Roy

2002-01-01

A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, R. T.; Lockwood, B.; Schmid, Wolfgang

2014-11-01

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within ;water-balance subregions; (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000-2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

Technical-economic modelling of integrated water management: wastewater reuse in a French island.

PubMed

Xu, P; Valette, F; Brissaud, F; Fazio, A; Lazarova, V

2001-01-01

An integrated technical-economic model is used to address water management issues in the French island of Noirmoutier. The model simulates potable water production and supply, potable and non potable water demand and consumption, wastewater collection, treatment and disposal, water storage, transportation and reuse. A variety of water management scenarios is assessed through technical, economic and environmental evaluation. The scenarios include wastewater reclamation and reuse for agricultural and landscape irrigation as well as domestic non potable application, desalination of seawater and brackish groundwater for potable water supply. The study shows that, in Noirmoutier, wastewater reclamation and reuse for crop irrigation is the most cost-effective solution to the lack of water resources and the protection of sensitive environment. Some water management projects which are regarded as having less economic benefit in the short-term may become competitive in the future, as a result of tightened environmental policy, changed public attitudes and advanced water treatment technologies. The model provides an appropriate tool for water resources planning and management.

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witter, Robert C.; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Kelin; Priest, George R.; Goldfinger, Chris; Stimely, Laura; English, John T.; Ferro, Paul A.

2013-01-01

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model’s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5–15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ∼4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9–44 m slip and Mw 8.7–9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22–30 m slip) and medium (14–19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%–95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for land-use planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36–44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

POD experiments using real and simulated time-sharing observations for GEO satellites in C-band transfer ranging system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fen, Cao; XuHai, Yang; ZhiGang, Li; ChuGang, Feng

2016-08-01

The normal consecutive observing model in Chinese Area Positioning System (CAPS) can only supply observations of one GEO satellite in 1 day from one station. However, this can't satisfy the project need for observing many GEO satellites in 1 day. In order to obtain observations of several GEO satellites in 1 day like GPS/GLONASS/Galileo/BeiDou, the time-sharing observing model for GEO satellites in CAPS needs research. The principle of time-sharing observing model is illuminated with subsequent Precise Orbit Determination (POD) experiments using simulated time-sharing observations in 2005 and the real time-sharing observations in 2015. From time-sharing simulation experiments before 2014, the time-sharing observing 6 GEO satellites every 2 h has nearly the same orbit precision with the consecutive observing model. From POD experiments using the real time-sharing observations, POD precision for ZX12# and Yatai7# are about 3.234 m and 2.570 m, respectively, which indicates the time-sharing observing model is appropriate for CBTR system and can realize observing many GEO satellites in 1 day.

New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations

PubMed Central

Antle, John M.; Stoorvogel, Jetse J.; Valdivia, Roberto O.

2014-01-01

This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models. PMID:24535388

New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations.

PubMed

Antle, John M; Stoorvogel, Jetse J; Valdivia, Roberto O

2014-04-05

This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models.

The Farm Process Version 2 (FMP2) for MODFLOW-2005 - Modifications and Upgrades to FMP1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, R.T.

2009-01-01

The ability to dynamically simulate the integrated supply-and-demand components of irrigated agricultural is needed to thoroughly understand the interrelation between surface water and groundwater flow in areas where the water-use by vegetation is an important component of the water budget. To meet this need, the computer program Farm Process (FMP1) was updated and refined for use with the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW-2005 groundwater-flow model, and is referred to as MF2005-FMP2. The updated program allows the simulation, analysis, and management of nearly all components of human and natural water use. MF2005-FMP2 represents a complete hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for water consumption of irrigated agriculture, but also of urban use, and of natural vegetation. Supply and demand components of water use are analyzed under demand-driven and supply-constrained conditions. From large- to small-scale settings, the MF2005-FMP2 has the unique set of capabilities to simulate and analyze historical, present, and future conditions. MF2005-FMP2 facilitates the analysis of agricultural water use where little data is available for pumpage, land use, or agricultural information. The features presented in this new version of FMP2 along with the linkages to the Streamflow Routing (SFR), Multi-Node Well (MNW), and Unsaturated Zone Flow (UZF) Packages prevents mass loss to an open system and helps to account for 'all of the water everywhere and all of the time'. The first version, FMP1 for MODFLOW-2000, is limited to (a) transpiration uptake from unsaturated root zones, (b) on-farm efficiency defined solely by farm and not by crop type, (c) a simulation of water use and returnflows related only to irrigated agriculture and not also to non-irrigated vegetation, (d) a definition of consumptive use as potential crop evapotranspiration, (e) percolation being instantly recharged to the uppermost active aquifer, (f) automatic routing of returnflow from runoff either to reaches of tributary stream segments adjacent to a farm or to one reach nearest to the farm's lowest elevation, (g) farm-well pumping from cell locations regardless of whether an irrigation requirement from these cells exists or not, and (h) specified non-routed water transfers from an undefined source outside the model domain. All of these limitations are overcome in MF2005-FMP2. The new features include (a) simulation of transpiration uptake from variably saturated, fully saturated, or ponded root zones (for example, for crops like rice or riparian vegetation), (b) definition of on-farm efficiency not only by farm but also by crop, (c) simulation of water use and returnflow from non-irrigated vegetation (for example, rain-fed agriculture or native vegetation), (d) use of crop coefficients and reference evapotranspiration, (e) simulation of the delay between percolation from farms through the unsaturated zone and recharge into the uppermost active aquifer by linking FMP2 to the UZF Package, (f) an option to manually control the routing of returnflow from farm runoff to streams, (g) an option to limit pumping to wells located only in cells where an irrigation requirement exists, and (h) simulation of water transfers to farms from a series of well fields (for example, recovery well field of an aquifer-storage-and-recovery system, ASR). In addition to the output of an economic budget for each farm between irrigation demand and supply ('Farm Demand and Supply Budget' in FMP1), a new output option called 'Farm Budget' was created for FMP2, which allows the user to track all physical flows into and out of a water accounting unit at all times. Such a unit can represent individual farms, farming districts, natural areas, or urban areas. The example model demonstrates the application of MF2005-FMP2 with delayed recharge through an unsaturated zone, rejected infiltration in a riparian area, changes in de

Assessing Climate Change Risks Using a Multi-Model Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Scholze, M.; Prentice, C.

2007-12-01

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from the IPCC AR4 data archive using 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply or shifts in vegetation cover. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios. Instead, we consider the distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped according to the amount of global warming they simulate: < 2 degree C (including committed climate change simulations), 2-3 degree C, and >3 degree C. Here, we are contrasting two different methods for calculating the risks: first we use an equal weighting approach giving every model within one of the three sets the same weight, and second, we weight the models according to their ability to model ENSO. The differences are underpinning the need for the development of more robust performance metrics for global climate models.

Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzfeld, Mike

2009-02-01

An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients

PubMed Central

Golden, Christopher D.; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-01-01

Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model—the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model—to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961–2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent estimates by the USDA for historical US nutrition and find very good agreement for 21 of 23 nutrients, though sodium and dietary fiber will require further improvement. PMID:26807571

Dynamic Impact of Online Word-of-Mouth and Advertising on Supply Chain Performance.

PubMed

Feng, Jian; Liu, Bin

2018-01-04

Cooperative (co-op) advertising investments benefit brand goodwill and further improve supply chain performance. Meanwhile, online word-of-mouth (OWOM) can also play an important role in supply chain performance. On the basis of co-op advertising, this paper considers a single supply chain structure led by a manufacturer and examines a fundamental issue concerning the impact of OWOM on supply chain performance. Firstly, by the method of differential game, this paper analyzes the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance (i.e., brand goodwill, sales, and profits) under three different supply chain decisions (i.e., only advertising, and manufacturers with and without sharing cost of OWOM with retailers). We compare and analyze the optimal strategies of advertising and OWOM under the above different supply chain decisions. Secondly, the system dynamics model is established to reflect the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance. Finally, three supply chain decisions under two scenarios, strong brand and weak brand, are analyzed through the system dynamics simulation. The results show that the input of OWOM can enhance brand goodwill and improve earnings. It further promotes the OWOM reputation and improves the supply chain performance if manufacturers share the cost of OWOM with retailers. Then, in order to eliminate the retailers from word-of-mouth fraud and establish a fair competition mechanism, the third parties (i.e., regulators or e-commerce platforms) should take appropriate punitive measures against retailers. Furthermore, the effect of OWOM on supply chain performance under a strong brand differed from those under a weak brand. Last but not least, if OWOM is improved, there would be more remarkable performance for the weak brand than that for the strong brand in the supply chain.

Dynamic Impact of Online Word-of-Mouth and Advertising on Supply Chain Performance

PubMed Central

Feng, Jian

2018-01-01

Cooperative (co-op) advertising investments benefit brand goodwill and further improve supply chain performance. Meanwhile, online word-of-mouth (OWOM) can also play an important role in supply chain performance. On the basis of co-op advertising, this paper considers a single supply chain structure led by a manufacturer and examines a fundamental issue concerning the impact of OWOM on supply chain performance. Firstly, by the method of differential game, this paper analyzes the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance (i.e., brand goodwill, sales, and profits) under three different supply chain decisions (i.e., only advertising, and manufacturers with and without sharing cost of OWOM with retailers). We compare and analyze the optimal strategies of advertising and OWOM under the above different supply chain decisions. Secondly, the system dynamics model is established to reflect the dynamic impact of OWOM and advertising on supply chain performance. Finally, three supply chain decisions under two scenarios, strong brand and weak brand, are analyzed through the system dynamics simulation. The results show that the input of OWOM can enhance brand goodwill and improve earnings. It further promotes the OWOM reputation and improves the supply chain performance if manufacturers share the cost of OWOM with retailers. Then, in order to eliminate the retailers from word-of-mouth fraud and establish a fair competition mechanism, the third parties (i.e., regulators or e-commerce platforms) should take appropriate punitive measures against retailers. Furthermore, the effect of OWOM on supply chain performance under a strong brand differed from those under a weak brand. Last but not least, if OWOM is improved, there would be more remarkable performance for the weak brand than that for the strong brand in the supply chain. PMID:29300361

Simulation of ground-water flow and pumpage in Kings and Queens Counties, Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Misut, Paul E.; Monti, Jack

1999-01-01

The potential effects of using ground water as a supplemental source of supply in Kings and Queens Counties were evaluated through a 4-layer finite-difference ground-water-flow model with a uniform grid spacing of 1,333 feet. Hydraulic properties and boundary conditions of an existing regional ground-water-flow model of Long Island with a uniform grid spacing of 4,000 feet were refined for use in the finer grid model of Kings and Queens Counties. The model is calibrated to average pumping stresses that correspond to presumed steady-state conditions of 1983 and 1991. A transient-state simulation of the year-by- year transition between these two conditions was also conducted.Pumping scenarios representing public-supply withdrawals of 100, 150, and 400 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) were simulated to determine the duration of sustainable pumpage, defined as the length of time before a particular pumping rate induces landward hydraulic gradients from areas of salty ground water. The simulations indicate the following hydrologically feasible scenarios:(1) Pumpage of 100 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 10 months, followed by a 46-month period of pumping at reduced (1991) rates, to allow water levels to recover to 90 percent of 1991 levels.(2) Pumpage of 150 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 6 months, followed by a 79-month period of pumping at a reduced (1991) rate.(3) Pumpage of 400 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 3 months from an initial condition of maximum aquifer storage.Each of these scenarios could be modified by injecting surplus water from upstate reservoirs, available from January to May, into the proposed wells. Injection at half the pumpage rate during the recovery period reduces the recovery period to 14 months in scenario 1, 6 months in scenario 2, and 9 months in scenario 3.

Wood Residue Distribution Simulator (WORDS)

Treesearch

Douglas A. Eza; James W. McMinn; Peter E. Dress

1984-01-01

Successful development of woody biomass for energy will depend on the distribution of local supply and demand within subregions, rather than on the total inventory of residues. The Wood Residue Distribution Simulator (WORDS) attempts to find a least-cost allocation of residues from local sources of supply to local sources of demand, given the cost of the materials,...

Are drought vulnerability indices useful tools in order to evaluate the state of a water supply system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preziosi, E.; Del Bon, A.; Romano, E.; Petrangeli, A. B.; Casadei, S.

2012-04-01

Water resources availability is affected both by anthropic drivers (increasing demand, modification in the uses) and natural ones such as precipitation decrease related to global climate changes. Water managers and water policy makers are more and more aware that they are facing a changing climate in which the availability of water is claimed to be decreasing in many parts of the world. The possibility that droughts will be more frequent and severe in the next decades is getting a real possibility and a wise manager should know in advance how to face this new reality. Hence new tools and, more important, a methodology to assess the weakest points of a complex water supply system to water scarcity scenarios, are necessary. The importance of simulation models to assess in advance the impacts of possible conditions of severe water shortage and the effects of feasible mitigation options on water supply systems is well known. Vulnerability is commonly used to characterize the performance of water supply systems, and it can be a helpful indicator in the evaluation of the most likely failures in a complex system in ordinary as well as in more severe climatic conditions. However a common procedure about the exploitation of modeling results is not established yet. In this research the water supply network of a case study area in Central Italy was modeled under different climatic and management hypothesis. In this area both ground water resources (well fields in alluvial aquifers and Apennine springs) and surface water resources stored in two large reservoirs, are exploited mainly for drinking water supply and irrigation. Climate scenarios were drawn based on three simplistic hypothesis: firstly a progressive reduction of precipitation in 55 years, secondly an increase in its variance during time, lastly a combination of the two. The model results were elaborated to calculate different indices, in order to analyze the variation of vulnerability of the water supply system to drought, in time and space. For our case study the model results show that the safety of the water supply system mainly relies on the reservoirs capacity and that the foreseen exploitation of the Apennine springs for drinking water supply could be seriously limited by the discharge natural decrease in fall. A decrease of the water system vulnerability to drought determined by a hypothetical but feasible mitigation option (augmentation of the total reservoir capacity with small reservoirs) was positively tested by the model. As a conclusion, vulnerability indices as well as synoptic risk maps, appear to be useful tools in order to analyze model results. Additionally they could provide scientific based scenarios to be used in a decision making framework considering negotiating among the main users.

Development of a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Feasibility of Water Leasing in the Middle Rio Grande Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, C. B.; Boyle, D. P.; Lamorey, G. W.; Bassett, S. D.

2007-12-01

The demand for water in the southwestern United States has increased in tandem with a rapid growth of population over the past 50 years. With ever increasing demands being placed on available water supplies, improving water management becomes crucial to the sustainability of the region's water resources. The National Science Foundation (NSF) Science and Technology Center (STC) for the Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) is interested in the feasibility of water leasing as a method for more efficiently distributing water among competing users. Economists working on the project will run water leasing simulations in an auction-type environment to understand the pros and cons of water leasing in a free market system. To include hydrologic processes in the water leasing simulations, an MMS-PRMS hydrologic model was developed for a portion of the Middle Rio Grande Basin (MRGB) near Albuquerque, New Mexico. This portion of the MRGB contains a detailed network of diversions, canals, and drains that transport water through the system. In order to capture the complexity of the system, the model was developed using the highest resolution information available. In the model, each Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) is represented as a trader. To achieve the 15 trader limit desired by economists, the model structure was simplified using two basic constraints; 1) HRUs having a common source and point of return to the river were lumped; and 2) HRUs with less than 20% agricultural land use were omitted from the auction simulations. A new Evapotranspiration (ET) module was implemented in the model to better estimate ET associated with different crops. Modules were also developed so that the end user has the flexibility to manipulate water deliveries based on crop type and land use. The MMS- PRMS model for the MRGB should help economists determine if the incentive to profit by selling or buying water can make more efficient use of the available water supply.

Application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model to simulate streamflow in a PNW forest watershed

Treesearch

A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; E. Bruner; W. J. Elliot; I. S. Miller; J. Q. Wu

2011-01-01

Assessment of water yields from watersheds into streams and rivers is critical to managing water supply and supporting aquatic life. Surface runoff typically contributes the most to peak discharge of a hydrograph while subsurface flow dominates the falling limb of hydrograph and baseflow contributes to streamflow from shallow unconfined aquifers primarily during the...

Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

Treesearch

John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

Fully Adaptive Radar Modeling and Simulation Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

Graeme E . Smith The Ohio State University Bruce L. McKinley Signal Processing Consultants, Inc. APRIL 2017 Final Report THIS IS A...AIR FORCE MATERIEL COMMAND UNITED STATES AIR FORCE NOTICE AND SIGNATURE PAGE Using Government drawings, specifications, or other data ...formulated or supplied the drawings, specifications, or other data does not license the holder or any other person or corporation; or convey any

The application of virtual reality systems as a support of digital manufacturing and logistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golda, G.; Kampa, A.; Paprocka, I.

2016-08-01

Modern trends in development of computer aided techniques are heading toward the integration of design competitive products and so-called "digital manufacturing and logistics", supported by computer simulation software. All phases of product lifecycle: starting from design of a new product, through planning and control of manufacturing, assembly, internal logistics and repairs, quality control, distribution to customers and after-sale service, up to its recycling or utilization should be aided and managed by advanced packages of product lifecycle management software. Important problems for providing the efficient flow of materials in supply chain management of whole product lifecycle, using computer simulation will be described on that paper. Authors will pay attention to the processes of acquiring relevant information and correct data, necessary for virtual modeling and computer simulation of integrated manufacturing and logistics systems. The article describes possibilities of use an applications of virtual reality software for modeling and simulation the production and logistics processes in enterprise in different aspects of product lifecycle management. The authors demonstrate effective method of creating computer simulations for digital manufacturing and logistics and show modeled and programmed examples and solutions. They pay attention to development trends and show options of the applications that go beyond enterprise.

Numerical Simulation of Film Cooling with a Coolant Supplied Through Holes in a Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalatov, A. A.; Panchenko, N. A.; Borisov, I. I.; Severina, V. V.

2017-05-01

The results of numerical simulation and experimental investigation of the efficiency of film cooling behind a row of holes in a trench in the range of blowing ratio variation 0.5 ≤ m ≤ 2.0 are presented. This scheme is of practical interest for use in the systems of cooling the blades of high-temperature gas turbines. Comparative analysis has shown that the efficiency of the trench scheme substantially exceeds the efficiency of the traditional scheme. The commercial package ANSYS CFX 14 was used in the Calculation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of film cooling. It is shown that the best agreement between predicted and experimental data is provided by the use of the SST model of turbulence. Analysis of the physical picture of flow has shown that the higher efficiency of film cooling with secondary air supply to the trench is mainly due to the preliminary spreading of a coolant in the trench, decrease in the intensity and scale of the vortex pair structure, absence of the coolant film departure from the plate surface, and to the more uniform transverse distribution of the coolant film.

Projecting impacts of climate change on water availability using artificial neural network techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Gomez-Fragoso, Julieta; Torres-Gonzalez, Sigfredo

2017-01-01

Lago Loíza reservoir in east-central Puerto Rico is one of the primary sources of public water supply for the San Juan metropolitan area. To evaluate and predict the Lago Loíza water budget, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is trained to predict river inflows. A method is developed to combine ANN-predicted daily flows with ANN-predicted 30-day cumulative flows to improve flow estimates. The ANN application trains well for representing 2007–2012 and the drier 1994–1997 periods. Rainfall data downscaled from global circulation model (GCM) simulations are used to predict 2050–2055 conditions. Evapotranspiration is estimated with the Hargreaves equation using minimum and maximum air temperatures from the downscaled GCM data. These simulated 2050–2055 river flows are input to a water budget formulation for the Lago Loíza reservoir for comparison with 2007–2012. The ANN scenarios require far less computational effort than a numerical model application, yet produce results with sufficient accuracy to evaluate and compare hydrologic scenarios. This hydrologic tool will be useful for future evaluations of the Lago Loíza reservoir and water supply to the San Juan metropolitan area.

Analysis of potential water-supply management options, 2010-60, and documentation of revisions to the model of the Irwin Basin Aquifer System, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voronin, Lois M.; Densmore, Jill N.; Martin, Peter

2014-01-01

The Fort Irwin National Training Center is considering several alternatives to manage their limited water-supply sources in the Irwin Basin. An existing three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow model—the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW—of the aquifer system in the basin was updated and the initial input dataset was supplemented with groundwater withdrawal data for the period 2000–10. The updated model was then used to simulate four combinations, or scenarios, of groundwater withdrawal and recharge over the next 50 years (January 2011 through December 2060). The scenarios included combinations of continuing withdrawals from currently active production wells, supplementing any increases in demand with withdrawals from an inactive production well, reducing withdrawal amounts and rates, and reducing the discharge of treated wastewater to infiltration ponds that provide a recharge source to the underlying aquifer. Results of the simulations indicated that, depending on the scenario implemented, groundwater levels would rise (over the next 50 years) from 40 feet to as much as 65 feet in the northwestern part of the Irwin Basin, and from 5 feet to 10 feet in the southeastern part.

Compact dual-mode diffuse optical system for blood perfusion monitoring in a porcine model of microvascular tissue flaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seung Yup; Pakela, Julia M.; Helton, Michael C.; Vishwanath, Karthik; Chung, Yooree G.; Kolodziejski, Noah J.; Stapels, Christopher J.; McAdams, Daniel R.; Fernandez, Daniel E.; Christian, James F.; O'Reilly, Jameson; Farkas, Dana; Ward, Brent B.; Feinberg, Stephen E.; Mycek, Mary-Ann

2017-12-01

In reconstructive surgery, the ability to detect blood flow interruptions to grafted tissue represents a critical step in preventing postsurgical complications. We have developed and pilot tested a compact, fiber-based device that combines two complimentary modalities-diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy-to quantitatively monitor blood perfusion. We present a proof-of-concept study on an in vivo porcine model (n=8). With a controllable arterial blood flow supply, occlusion studies (n=4) were performed on surgically isolated free flaps while the device simultaneously monitored blood flow through the supplying artery as well as flap perfusion from three orientations: the distal side of the flap and two transdermal channels. Further studies featuring long-term monitoring, arterial failure simulations, and venous failure simulations were performed on flaps that had undergone an anastomosis procedure (n=4). Additionally, benchtop verification of the DCS system was performed on liquid flow phantoms. Data revealed relationships between diffuse optical measures and state of occlusion as well as the ability to detect arterial and venous compromise. The compact construction of the device, along with its noninvasive and quantitative nature, would make this technology suitable for clinical translation.

Narrowing the agronomic yield gap with improved nitrogen use efficiency: a modeling approach.

PubMed

Ahrens, T D; Lobell, D B; Ortiz-Monasterio, J I; Li, Y; Matson, P A

2010-01-01

Improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in the major cereals is critical for more sustainable nitrogen use in high-input agriculture, but our understanding of the potential for NUE improvement is limited by a paucity of reliable on-farm measurements. Limited on-farm data suggest that agronomic NUE (AE(N)) is lower and more variable than data from trials conducted at research stations, on which much of our understanding of AE(N) has been built. The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude and causes of variability in AE(N) across an agricultural region, which we refer to as the achievement distribution of AE(N). The distribution of simulated AE(N) in 80 farmers' fields in an irrigated wheat system in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico, was compared with trials at a local research center (International Wheat and Maize Improvement Center; CIMMYT). An agroecosystem simulation model WNMM was used to understand factors controlling yield, AE(N), gaseous N emissions, and nitrate leaching in the region. Simulated AE(N) in the Yaqui Valley was highly variable, and mean on-farm AE(N) was 44% lower than trials with similar fertilization rates at CIMMYT. Variability in residual N supply was the most important factor determining simulated AE(N). Better split applications of N fertilizer led to almost a doubling of AE(N), increased profit, and reduced N pollution, and even larger improvements were possible with technologies that allow for direct measurement of soil N supply and plant N demand, such as site-specific nitrogen management.

Robust, Optimal Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty Using Metamodels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maier, H. R.; Beh, E. H. Y.; Zheng, F.; Dandy, G. C.; Kapelan, Z.

2015-12-01

Optimal long-term planning plays an important role in many water infrastructure problems. However, this task is complicated by deep uncertainty about future conditions, such as the impact of population dynamics and climate change. One way to deal with this uncertainty is by means of robustness, which aims to ensure that water infrastructure performs adequately under a range of plausible future conditions. However, as robustness calculations require computationally expensive system models to be run for a large number of scenarios, it is generally computationally intractable to include robustness as an objective in the development of optimal long-term infrastructure plans. In order to overcome this shortcoming, an approach is developed that uses metamodels instead of computationally expensive simulation models in robustness calculations. The approach is demonstrated for the optimal sequencing of water supply augmentation options for the southern portion of the water supply for Adelaide, South Australia. A 100-year planning horizon is subdivided into ten equal decision stages for the purpose of sequencing various water supply augmentation options, including desalination, stormwater harvesting and household rainwater tanks. The objectives include the minimization of average present value of supply augmentation costs, the minimization of average present value of greenhouse gas emissions and the maximization of supply robustness. The uncertain variables are rainfall, per capita water consumption and population. Decision variables are the implementation stages of the different water supply augmentation options. Artificial neural networks are used as metamodels to enable all objectives to be calculated in a computationally efficient manner at each of the decision stages. The results illustrate the importance of identifying optimal staged solutions to ensure robustness and sustainability of water supply into an uncertain long-term future.

Prominence Mass Supply and the Cavity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmit, Donald J.; Gibson, S.; Luna, M.; Karpen, J.; Innes, D.

2013-01-01

A prevalent but untested paradigm is often used to describe the prominence-cavity system; the cavity is under-dense because it it evacuated by supplying mass to the condensed prominence. The thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) model of prominence formation offers a theoretical framework to predict the thermodynamic evolutin of the prominence and the surrounding corona. We examine the evidence for a prominence-cavity connection by comparing the TNE model and diagnostics of dynamic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission surrounding the prominence, specifically prominence horns. Horns are correlated extensions of prminence plasma and coronal plasma which appear to connect the prominence and cavity. The TNE model predicts that large-scale brightenings will occur in the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 171 A badpass near he prominence that are associated with the cooling phase of condensation formation. In our simulations, variations in the magnitude of footpoint heating lead to variations in the duration, spatial scale, and temporal offset between emission enhancements in the other EUV bandpasses. While these predictions match well a subset of the horn observations, the range of variations in the observed structures is not captured by the model. We discuss the implications of one-dimensional loop simulations for the three-dimensional time-averaged equilibrium in the prominence and the cavity. Evidence suggests that horns are likely caused by condensing prominence plasma, but the larger question of whether this process produces a density-depleted cavity requires a more tightly constrained model of heating and better knowledge of the associated magnetic structure.

Nitrogen uptake and utilization by intact plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raper, C. D., Jr.; Tolley-Henry, L. C.

1986-01-01

The results of experiments support the proposed conceptual model that relates nitrogen uptake activity by plants as a balanced interdependence between the carbon-supplying function of the shoot and the nitrogen-supplying function of the roots. The data are being used to modify a dynamic simulation of plant growth, which presently describes carbon flows through the plant, to describe nitrogen uptake and assimilation within the plant system. Although several models have been proposed to predict nitrogen uptake and partitioning, they emphasize root characteristics affecting nutrient uptake and relay on empirical methods to describe the relationship between nitrogen and carbon flows within the plant. Researchers, on the other hand, propose to continue to attempt a mechanistic solution in which the effects of environment on nitrogen (as well as carbon) assimilation are incorporated through their direct effects on photosynthesis, respiration, and aging processes.

Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, David E.; Tarawneh, Tarek; Abdel-Khaleq, Rania; Lund, Jay R.

2007-07-01

We apply systems analysis to estimate household water use in an intermittent supply system considering numerous interdependent water user behaviors. Some 39 household actions include conservation; improving local storage or water quality; and accessing sources having variable costs, availabilities, reliabilities, and qualities. A stochastic optimization program with recourse decisions identifies the infrastructure investments and short-term coping actions a customer can adopt to cost-effectively respond to a probability distribution of piped water availability. Monte Carlo simulations show effects for a population of customers. Model calibration reproduces the distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Parametric analyses suggest economic and demand responses to increased availability and alternative pricing. It also suggests potential market penetration for conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, and finance conservation.

Analytical expressions for noise and crosstalk voltages of the High Energy Silicon Particle Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, I.; Shrimali, H.; Liberali, V.; Andreazza, A.

2018-01-01

The paper presents design and implementation of a silicon particle detector array with the derived closed form equations of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and crosstalk voltages. The noise analysis demonstrates the effect of interpixel capacitances (IPC) between center pixel (where particle hits) and its neighbouring pixels, resulting as a capacitive crosstalk. The pixel array has been designed and simulated in a 180 nm BCD technology of STMicroelectronics. The technology uses the supply voltage (VDD) of 1.8 V and the substrate potential of -50 V. The area of unit pixel is 250×50 μm2 with the substrate resistivity of 125 Ωcm and the depletion depth of 30 μm. The mathematical model includes the effects of various types of noise viz. the shot noise, flicker noise, thermal noise and the capacitive crosstalk. This work compares the results of noise and crosstalk analysis from the proposed mathematical model with the circuit simulation results for a given simulation environment. The results show excellent agreement with the circuit simulations and the mathematical model. The average relative error (AVR) generated for the noise spectral densities with respect to the simulations and the model is 12% whereas the comparison gives the errors of 3% and 11.5% for the crosstalk voltages and the SNR results respectively.

Stochastic modelling of the hydrologic operation of rainwater harvesting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Rui; Guo, Yiping

2018-07-01

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems are an effective low impact development practice that provides both water supply and runoff reduction benefits. A stochastic modelling approach is proposed in this paper to quantify the water supply reliability and stormwater capture efficiency of RWH systems. The input rainfall series is represented as a marked Poisson process and two typical water use patterns are analytically described. The stochastic mass balance equation is solved analytically, and based on this, explicit expressions relating system performance to system characteristics are derived. The performances of a wide variety of RWH systems located in five representative climatic regions of the United States are examined using the newly derived analytical equations. Close agreements between analytical and continuous simulation results are shown for all the compared cases. In addition, an analytical equation is obtained expressing the required storage size as a function of the desired water supply reliability, average water use rate, as well as rainfall and catchment characteristics. The equations developed herein constitute a convenient and effective tool for sizing RWH systems and evaluating their performances.

Fault diagnosis and fault-tolerant finite control set-model predictive control of a multiphase voltage-source inverter supplying BLDC motor.

PubMed

Salehifar, Mehdi; Moreno-Equilaz, Manuel

2016-01-01

Due to its fault tolerance, a multiphase brushless direct current (BLDC) motor can meet high reliability demand for application in electric vehicles. The voltage-source inverter (VSI) supplying the motor is subjected to open circuit faults. Therefore, it is necessary to design a fault-tolerant (FT) control algorithm with an embedded fault diagnosis (FD) block. In this paper, finite control set-model predictive control (FCS-MPC) is developed to implement the fault-tolerant control algorithm of a five-phase BLDC motor. The developed control method is fast, simple, and flexible. A FD method based on available information from the control block is proposed; this method is simple, robust to common transients in motor and able to localize multiple open circuit faults. The proposed FD and FT control algorithm are embedded in a five-phase BLDC motor drive. In order to validate the theory presented, simulation and experimental results are conducted on a five-phase two-level VSI supplying a five-phase BLDC motor. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transactive Systems Simulation and Valuation Platform Trial Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Widergren, Steven E.; Hammerstrom, Donald J.; Huang, Qiuhua

Transactive energy systems use principles of value to coordinate responsive supply and demand in energy systems. Work continues within the Transactive Systems Program, which is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, to understand the value of, understand the theory behind, and simulate the behaviors of transactive energy systems. This report summarizes recent advances made by this program. The main capability advances include a more comprehensive valuation model, including recommended documentation that should make valuation studies of all sorts more transparent, definition of economic metrics with which transactive mechanisms can be evaluated, and multiple improvementsmore » to the time-simulation environment that is being used to evaluate transactive scenarios.« less

Numerical simulation study on air quality in aircraft cabins.

PubMed

Zhao, Yingjie; Dai, Bingrong; Yu, Qi; Si, Haiqing; Yu, Gang

2017-06-01

Air pollution is one of the main factors that affect the air quality in aircraft cabins, and the use of different air supply modes could influence the distribution of air pollutants in cabins. Based on the traditional ceiling air supply mode used on the B737NG, this study investigated another 3 different kinds of air supply modes for comparison: luggage rack air supply mode, joint mode combining ceiling and luggage rack air supply, and joint mode combining ceiling and individual air supply. Under the above 4 air supply modes, the air velocity, temperature and distribution of air pollutants in a cabin full of passengers were studied using computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and formaldehyde were selected as 2 kinds of representative air pollutants. The simulation results show that the joint mode combining ceiling and individual air supply can create a more uniform distribution of air velocity and temperature, has a better effect on the removal of CO 2 and formaldehyde, and can provide better air quality in cabins than the other 3 modes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Toward improved simulation of river operations through integration with a hydrologic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morway, Eric D.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Triana, Enrique

2016-01-01

Advanced modeling tools are needed for informed water resources planning and management. Two classes of modeling tools are often used to this end–(1) distributed-parameter hydrologic models for quantifying supply and (2) river-operation models for sorting out demands under rule-based systems such as the prior-appropriation doctrine. Within each of these two broad classes of models, there are many software tools that excel at simulating the processes specific to each discipline, but have historically over-simplified, or at worse completely neglected, aspects of the other. As a result, water managers reliant on river-operation models for administering water resources need improved tools for representing spatially and temporally varying groundwater resources in conjunctive-use systems. A new tool is described that improves the representation of groundwater/surface-water (GW-SW) interaction within a river-operations modeling context and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide hydrologic consequences of new or altered management regimes.