support causal conclusions: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for support causal conclusions

Marriage and Anomie: A Causal Argument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Gary R.

1974-01-01

A sample of 394 married couples is employed to test the possibility of an association between marital satisfaction and personal (attitudinal) anomie. The hypothesis is supported. Conclusions are offered relevant to anomie theory, and to utilization of marital and family phenomena as independent variables in causal explanations of nonfamily events.…
On the factorial and construct validity of the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory: conceptual and operational concerns.

PubMed

Markland, D; Hardy, L

1997-03-01

The Intrinsic Motivation Inventory (IMI) has been gaining acceptance in the sport and exercise domain since the publication of research by McAuley, Duncan, and Tammen (1989) and McAuley, Wraith, and Duncan (1991), which reported confirmatory support for the factorial validity of a hierarchical model of intrinsic motivation. Authors of the present study argue that the results of these studies did not conclusively support the hierarchical model and that the model did not accurately reflect the tenets of cognitive evaluation theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985) from which the IMI is drawn. It is also argued that a measure of perceived locus of causality is required to model intrinsic motivation properly. The development of a perceived locus of causality for exercise scale is described, and alternative models, in which perceived competence and perceived locus of causality are held to have causal influences on intrinsic motivation, are compared with an oblique confirmatory factor analytic model in which the constructs are held at the same conceptual level. Structural equation modeling showed support for a causal model in which perceived locus of causality mediates the effects of perceived competence on pressure-tension, interest-enjoyment, and effort-importance. It is argued that conceptual and operational problems with the IMI, as currently used, should be addressed before it becomes established as the instrument of choice for assessing levels of intrinsic motivation.
Cannabis and psychosis: what is the link?

PubMed

Ben Amar, Mohamed; Potvin, Stéphane

2007-06-01

Growing evidence supports the hypothesis that cannabis consumption is a risk factor for the development of psychotic symptoms. Nonetheless, controversy remains about the causal nature of the association. This review takes the debate further through a critical appraisal of the evidence. An electronic search was performed, allowing to identify 622 studies published until June 1st 2005. Longitudinal studies and literature reviews were selected if they addressed specifically the issues of the cannabis/psychosis relationship or possible mechanisms involved. Ten epidemiological studies were relevant: three supported a causal relationship between cannabis use and diagnosed psychosis; five suggested that chronic cannabis intake increases the frequency of psychotic symptoms, but not of diagnosed psychosis; and two showed no causal relationship. Potential neurobiological mechanisms were also identified, involving dopamine, endocannabinoids, and brain growth factors. Although there is evidence that cannabis use increases the risk of developing psychotic symptoms, the causal nature of this association remains unclear. Contributing factors include heavy consumption, length and early age of exposure, and psychotic vulnerability. This conclusion should be mitigated by uncertainty arising from cannabis use assessment, psychosis measurement, reverse causality and control of residual confounding.
Learning a theory of causality.

PubMed

Goodman, Noah D; Ullman, Tomer D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2011-01-01

The very early appearance of abstract knowledge is often taken as evidence for innateness. We explore the relative learning speeds of abstract and specific knowledge within a Bayesian framework and the role for innate structure. We focus on knowledge about causality, seen as a domain-general intuitive theory, and ask whether this knowledge can be learned from co-occurrence of events. We begin by phrasing the causal Bayes nets theory of causality and a range of alternatives in a logical language for relational theories. This allows us to explore simultaneous inductive learning of an abstract theory of causality and a causal model for each of several causal systems. We find that the correct theory of causality can be learned relatively quickly, often becoming available before specific causal theories have been learned--an effect we term the blessing of abstraction. We then explore the effect of providing a variety of auxiliary evidence and find that a collection of simple perceptual input analyzers can help to bootstrap abstract knowledge. Together, these results suggest that the most efficient route to causal knowledge may be to build in not an abstract notion of causality but a powerful inductive learning mechanism and a variety of perceptual supports. While these results are purely computational, they have implications for cognitive development, which we explore in the conclusion.
The Teacher, the Physician and the Person: Exploring Causal Connections between Teaching Performance and Role Model Types Using Directed Acyclic Graphs

PubMed Central

Boerebach, Benjamin C. M.; Lombarts, Kiki M. J. M. H.; Scherpbier, Albert J. J.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.

2013-01-01

Background In fledgling areas of research, evidence supporting causal assumptions is often scarce due to the small number of empirical studies conducted. In many studies it remains unclear what impact explicit and implicit causal assumptions have on the research findings; only the primary assumptions of the researchers are often presented. This is particularly true for research on the effect of faculty’s teaching performance on their role modeling. Therefore, there is a need for robust frameworks and methods for transparent formal presentation of the underlying causal assumptions used in assessing the causal effects of teaching performance on role modeling. This study explores the effects of different (plausible) causal assumptions on research outcomes. Methods This study revisits a previously published study about the influence of faculty’s teaching performance on their role modeling (as teacher-supervisor, physician and person). We drew eight directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to visually represent different plausible causal relationships between the variables under study. These DAGs were subsequently translated into corresponding statistical models, and regression analyses were performed to estimate the associations between teaching performance and role modeling. Results The different causal models were compatible with major differences in the magnitude of the relationship between faculty’s teaching performance and their role modeling. Odds ratios for the associations between teaching performance and the three role model types ranged from 31.1 to 73.6 for the teacher-supervisor role, from 3.7 to 15.5 for the physician role, and from 2.8 to 13.8 for the person role. Conclusions Different sets of assumptions about causal relationships in role modeling research can be visually depicted using DAGs, which are then used to guide both statistical analysis and interpretation of results. Since study conclusions can be sensitive to different causal assumptions, results should be interpreted in the light of causal assumptions made in each study. PMID:23936020
Psychogenic Explanations of Physical Illness: Time to Examine the Evidence.

PubMed

Wilshire, Carolyn E; Ward, Tony

2016-09-01

In some patients with chronic physical complaints, detailed examination fails to reveal a well-recognized underlying disease process. In this situation, the physician may suspect a psychological cause. In this review, we critically evaluated the evidence for this causal claim, focusing on complaints presenting as neurological disorders. There were four main conclusions. First, patients with these complaints frequently exhibit psychopathology but not consistently more often than patients with a comparable "organic" diagnosis, so a causal role cannot be inferred. Second, these patients report a high incidence of adverse life experiences, but again, there is insufficient evidence to indicate a causal role for any particular type of experience. Third, although psychogenic illnesses are believed to be more responsive to psychological interventions than comparable "organic" illnesses, there is currently no evidence to support this claim. Finally, recent evidence suggests that biological and physical factors play a much greater causal role in these illnesses than previously believed. We conclude that there is currently little evidential support for psychogenic theories of illness in the neurological domain. In future research, researchers need to take a wider view concerning the etiology of these illnesses. © The Author(s) 2016.
Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder

PubMed Central

Wittenborn, A. K.; Rahmandad, H.; Rick, J.; Hosseinichimeh, N.

2016-01-01

Background Depression is a complex public health problem with considerable variation in treatment response. The systemic complexity of depression, or the feedback processes among diverse drivers of the disorder, contribute to the persistence of depression. This paper extends prior attempts to understand the complex causal feedback mechanisms that underlie depression by presenting the first broad boundary causal loop diagram of depression dynamics. Method We applied qualitative system dynamics methods to map the broad feedback mechanisms of depression. We used a structured approach to identify candidate causal mechanisms of depression in the literature. We assessed the strength of empirical support for each mechanism and prioritized those with support from validation studies. Through an iterative process, we synthesized the empirical literature and created a conceptual model of major depressive disorder. Results The literature review and synthesis resulted in the development of the first causal loop diagram of reinforcing feedback processes of depression. It proposes candidate drivers of illness, or inertial factors, and their temporal functioning, as well as the interactions among drivers of depression. The final causal loop diagram defines 13 key reinforcing feedback loops that involve nine candidate drivers of depression. Conclusions Future research is needed to expand upon this initial model of depression dynamics. Quantitative extensions may result in a better understanding of the systemic syndrome of depression and contribute to personalized methods of evaluation, prevention and intervention. PMID:26621339
Conceptualizing Public Attitudes toward the Welfare State: A Comment on Hasenfeld and Rafferty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emerson, Michael O.; Van Buren, Mark E.

1992-01-01

Using structural equation technique to replicate results of Hasenfeld and Rafferty's causal model predicting public attitudes toward welfare state programs with the social ideologies of work ethic and social rights. By incorporating estimates of measurement error, results failed to support the authors' original conclusions. Operationalizing key…
Model Selection Approach Suggests Causal Association between 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Theodoratou, Evropi; Farrington, Susan M.; Tenesa, Albert; Dunlop, Malcolm G.; McKeigue, Paul; Campbell, Harry

2013-01-01

Introduction Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders. Methods Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD), genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls) and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions. Results Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model), and also for deviance information criteria (DIC) computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores. Conclusion Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations. PMID:23717431
Evaluation of the causal framework used for setting national ambient air quality standards.

PubMed

Goodman, Julie E; Prueitt, Robyn L; Sax, Sonja N; Bailey, Lisa A; Rhomberg, Lorenz R

2013-11-01

Abstract A scientifically sound assessment of the potential hazards associated with a substance requires a systematic, objective and transparent evaluation of the weight of evidence (WoE) for causality of health effects. We critically evaluated the current WoE framework for causal determination used in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) assessments of the scientific data on air pollutants for the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review process, including its methods for literature searches; study selection, evaluation and integration; and causal judgments. The causal framework used in recent NAAQS evaluations has many valuable features, but it could be more explicit in some cases, and some features are missing that should be included in every WoE evaluation. Because of this, it has not always been applied consistently in evaluations of causality, leading to conclusions that are not always supported by the overall WoE, as we demonstrate using EPA's ozone Integrated Science Assessment as a case study. We propose additions to the NAAQS causal framework based on best practices gleaned from a previously conducted survey of available WoE frameworks. A revision of the NAAQS causal framework so that it more closely aligns with these best practices and the full and consistent application of the framework will improve future assessments of the potential health effects of criteria air pollutants by making the assessments more thorough, transparent, and scientifically sound.
Micro-Randomized Trials: An Experimental Design for Developing Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions

PubMed Central

Klasnja, Predrag; Hekler, Eric B.; Shiffman, Saul; Boruvka, Audrey; Almirall, Daniel; Tewari, Ambuj; Murphy, Susan A.

2015-01-01

Objective This paper presents an experimental design, the micro-randomized trial, developed to support optimization of just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs). JITAIs are mHealth technologies that aim to deliver the right intervention components at the right times and locations to optimally support individuals’ health behaviors. Micro-randomized trials offer a way to optimize such interventions by enabling modeling of causal effects and time-varying effect moderation for individual intervention components within a JITAI. Methods The paper describes the micro-randomized trial design, enumerates research questions that this experimental design can help answer, and provides an overview of the data analyses that can be used to assess the causal effects of studied intervention components and investigate time-varying moderation of those effects. Results Micro-randomized trials enable causal modeling of proximal effects of the randomized intervention components and assessment of time-varying moderation of those effects. Conclusions Micro-randomized trials can help researchers understand whether their interventions are having intended effects, when and for whom they are effective, and what factors moderate the interventions’ effects, enabling creation of more effective JITAIs. PMID:26651463
Weighting-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Causal Mediation Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Guanglei; Qin, Xu; Yang, Fan

2018-01-01

Through a sensitivity analysis, the analyst attempts to determine whether a conclusion of causal inference could be easily reversed by a plausible violation of an identification assumption. Analytic conclusions that are harder to alter by such a violation are expected to add a higher value to scientific knowledge about causality. This article…
A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees

PubMed Central

KAEWANUCHIT, Chonticha; MUNTANER, Carles; ISHA, Nizam

2015-01-01

Background: Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. Methods: This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Results: Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Conclusion: Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level. PMID:26576371
The impact of pretend play on children's development: a review of the evidence.

PubMed

Lillard, Angeline S; Lerner, Matthew D; Hopkins, Emily J; Dore, Rebecca A; Smith, Eric D; Palmquist, Carolyn M

2013-01-01

Pretend play has been claimed to be crucial to children's healthy development. Here we examine evidence for this position versus 2 alternatives: Pretend play is 1 of many routes to positive developments (equifinality), and pretend play is an epiphenomenon of other factors that drive development. Evidence from several domains is considered. For language, narrative, and emotion regulation, the research conducted to date is consistent with all 3 positions but insufficient to draw conclusions. For executive function and social skills, existing research leans against the crucial causal position but is insufficient to differentiate the other 2. For reasoning, equifinality is definitely supported, ruling out a crucially causal position but still leaving open the possibility that pretend play is epiphenomenal. For problem solving, there is no compelling evidence that pretend play helps or is even a correlate. For creativity, intelligence, conservation, and theory of mind, inconsistent correlational results from sound studies and nonreplication with masked experimenters are problematic for a causal position, and some good studies favor an epiphenomenon position in which child, adult, and environment characteristics that go along with play are the true causal agents. We end by considering epiphenomenalism more deeply and discussing implications for preschool settings and further research in this domain. Our take-away message is that existing evidence does not support strong causal claims about the unique importance of pretend play for development and that much more and better research is essential for clarifying its possible role. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).
Helicobacter pylori infection as a cause of gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia: a systematic overview.

PubMed Central

Veldhuyzen van Zanten, S J; Sherman, P M

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate current evidence for a causal relation between Helicobacter pylori infection and gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia. DATA SOURCES: A MEDLINE search for articles published in English between January 1983 and December 1992 with the use of MeSH terms Helicobacter pylori, gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer, dyspepsia and clinical trial; abstracts were excluded. Six journals and Current Contents were searched manually for pertinent articles published in that time frame. STUDY SELECTION: Original studies with at least 25 patients, case reports and reviews that examined the relation between H. pylori and the four gastrointestinal disorders; 350 articles were on gastritis, 122 on duodenal ulcer, 44 on gastric cancer and 96 on nonulcer dyspepsia. DATA EXTRACTION: The quality of the studies was rated independently on a four-point scale. The strength of the evidence was assessed using a six-point scale for each of the eight established guidelines for determining a causal relation. DATA SYNTHESIS: There was conclusive evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori infection and histologic gastritis. Koch's postulates for the identification of a microorganism as the causative agent of a disease were fulfilled for H. pylori as a causative agent of gastritis. There was strong evidence that H. pylori is the main cause of duodenal ulcers not induced by nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, but all of Koch's postulates were not fulfilled. There was moderate epidemiologic evidence of an association between chronic H. pylori infection and gastric cancer. There was a lack of convincing evidence of a causal association between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence supports a strong causal relation between H. pylori infection and gastritis and duodenal ulcer and a moderate relation between such infection and gastric cancer. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of H. pylori in these disorders. Thus far, there is no evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia. PMID:8287340
Temporal Causality Analysis of Sentiment Change in a Cancer Survivor Network.

PubMed

Bui, Ngot; Yen, John; Honavar, Vasant

2016-06-01

Online health communities constitute a useful source of information and social support for patients. American Cancer Society's Cancer Survivor Network (CSN), a 173,000-member community, is the largest online network for cancer patients, survivors, and caregivers. A discussion thread in CSN is often initiated by a cancer survivor seeking support from other members of CSN. Discussion threads are multi-party conversations that often provide a source of social support e.g., by bringing about a change of sentiment from negative to positive on the part of the thread originator. While previous studies regarding cancer survivors have shown that members of an online health community derive benefits from their participation in such communities, causal accounts of the factors that contribute to the observed benefits have been lacking. We introduce a novel framework to examine the temporal causality of sentiment dynamics in the CSN. We construct a Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic representation and a corresponding probabilistic Kripke structure to represent and reason about the changes in sentiments of posts in a thread over time. We use a sentiment classifier trained using machine learning on a set of posts manually tagged with sentiment labels to classify posts as expressing either positive or negative sentiment. We analyze the probabilistic Kripke structure to identify the prima facie causes of sentiment change on the part of the thread originators in the CSN forum and their significance. We find that the sentiment of replies appears to causally influence the sentiment of the thread originator. Our experiments also show that the conclusions are robust with respect to the choice of the (i) classification threshold of the sentiment classifier; (ii) and the choice of the specific sentiment classifier used. We also extend the basic framework for temporal causality analysis to incorporate the uncertainty in the states of the probabilistic Kripke structure resulting from the use of an imperfect state transducer (in our case, the sentiment classifier). Our analysis of temporal causality of CSN sentiment dynamics offers new insights that the designers, managers and moderators of an online community such as CSN can utilize to facilitate and enhance the interactions so as to better meet the social support needs of the CSN participants. The proposed methodology for analysis of temporal causality has broad applicability in a variety of settings where the dynamics of the underlying system can be modeled in terms of state variables that change in response to internal or external inputs.
Temporal Causality Analysis of Sentiment Change in a Cancer Survivor Network

PubMed Central

Bui, Ngot; Yen, John; Honavar, Vasant

2017-01-01

Online health communities constitute a useful source of information and social support for patients. American Cancer Society’s Cancer Survivor Network (CSN), a 173,000-member community, is the largest online network for cancer patients, survivors, and caregivers. A discussion thread in CSN is often initiated by a cancer survivor seeking support from other members of CSN. Discussion threads are multi-party conversations that often provide a source of social support e.g., by bringing about a change of sentiment from negative to positive on the part of the thread originator. While previous studies regarding cancer survivors have shown that members of an online health community derive benefits from their participation in such communities, causal accounts of the factors that contribute to the observed benefits have been lacking. We introduce a novel framework to examine the temporal causality of sentiment dynamics in the CSN. We construct a Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic representation and a corresponding probabilistic Kripke structure to represent and reason about the changes in sentiments of posts in a thread over time. We use a sentiment classifier trained using machine learning on a set of posts manually tagged with sentiment labels to classify posts as expressing either positive or negative sentiment. We analyze the probabilistic Kripke structure to identify the prima facie causes of sentiment change on the part of the thread originators in the CSN forum and their significance. We find that the sentiment of replies appears to causally influence the sentiment of the thread originator. Our experiments also show that the conclusions are robust with respect to the choice of the (i) classification threshold of the sentiment classifier; (ii) and the choice of the specific sentiment classifier used. We also extend the basic framework for temporal causality analysis to incorporate the uncertainty in the states of the probabilistic Kripke structure resulting from the use of an imperfect state transducer (in our case, the sentiment classifier). Our analysis of temporal causality of CSN sentiment dynamics offers new insights that the designers, managers and moderators of an online community such as CSN can utilize to facilitate and enhance the interactions so as to better meet the social support needs of the CSN participants. The proposed methodology for analysis of temporal causality has broad applicability in a variety of settings where the dynamics of the underlying system can be modeled in terms of state variables that change in response to internal or external inputs. PMID:29399599
Cause and Event: Supporting Causal Claims through Logistic Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connell, Ann A.; Gray, DeLeon L.

2011-01-01

Efforts to identify and support credible causal claims have received intense interest in the research community, particularly over the past few decades. In this paper, we focus on the use of statistical procedures designed to support causal claims for a treatment or intervention when the response variable of interest is dichotomous. We identify…
Understanding the Causal Path between Action, Learning, and Solutions: Maximizing the Power of Action Learning to Achieve Great Results

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leonard, H. Skipton

2015-01-01

Clients and practitioners alike are often confused about the ultimate purpose of action learning (AL). Because of the title of the method, many believe the primary goal of AL is to generate learning. This article clarifies the relationship between action, learning, and solutions. It also provides historical evidence to support the conclusion that…
Weight-of-evidence evaluation of short-term ozone exposure and cardiovascular effects.

PubMed

Goodman, Julie E; Prueitt, Robyn L; Sax, Sonja N; Lynch, Heather N; Zu, Ke; Lemay, Julie C; King, Joseph M; Venditti, Ferdinand J

2014-10-01

There is a relatively large body of research on the potential cardiovascular (CV) effects associated with short-term ozone exposure (defined by EPA as less than 30 days in duration). We conducted a weight-of-evidence (WoE) analysis to assess whether it supports a causal relationship using a novel WoE framework adapted from the US EPA's National Ambient Air Quality Standards causality framework. Specifically, we synthesized and critically evaluated the relevant epidemiology, controlled human exposure, and experimental animal data and made a causal determination using the same categories proposed by the Institute of Medicine report Improving the Presumptive Disability Decision-making Process for Veterans ( IOM 2008). We found that the totality of the data indicates that the results for CV effects are largely null across human and experimental animal studies. The few statistically significant associations reported in epidemiology studies of CV morbidity and mortality are very small in magnitude and likely attributable to confounding, bias, or chance. In experimental animal studies, the reported statistically significant effects at high exposures are not observed at lower exposures and thus not likely relevant to current ambient ozone exposures in humans. The available data also do not support a biologically plausible mechanism for CV effects of ozone. Overall, the current WoE provides no convincing case for a causal relationship between short-term exposure to ambient ozone and adverse effects on the CV system in humans, but the limitations of the available studies preclude definitive conclusions regarding a lack of causation. Thus, we categorize the strength of evidence for a causal relationship between short-term exposure to ozone and CV effects as "below equipoise."

Causal interpretation of correlational studies - Analysis of medical news on the website of the official journal for German physicians.

PubMed

Buhse, Susanne; Rahn, Anne Christin; Bock, Merle; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2018-01-01

Media frequently draws inappropriate causal statements from observational studies. We analyzed the reporting of study results in the Medical News section of the German medical journal Deutsches Ärzteblatt (DÄ). Study design: Retrospective quantitative content analysis of randomly selected news reports and related original journal articles and press releases. A medical news report was selected if headlines comprised at least two linked variables. Two raters independently categorized the headline and text of each news report, conclusions of the abstract and full text of the related journal article, and the press release. The assessment instrument comprised five categories from 'neutral' to 'unconditionally causal'. Outcome measures: degree of matching between 1) news headlines and conclusions of the journal article, 2) headlines and text of news reports, 3) text and conclusions, and 4) headlines and press releases. We analyzed whether news headlines rated as unconditionally causal based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One-thousand eighty-seven medical news reports were published between April 2015 and May 2016. The final random sample comprised 176 news reports and 100 related press releases. Degree of matching: 1) 45% (79/176) for news headlines and journal article conclusions, 2) 55% (97/176) for headlines and text, 3) 53% (93/176) for text and conclusions, and 4) 41% (41/100) for headlines and press releases. Exaggerations were found in 45% (80/176) of the headlines compared to the conclusions of the related journal article. Sixty-five of 137 unconditionally causal statements of the news headlines were phrased more weakly in the subsequent news text body. Only 52 of 137 headlines (38%) categorized as unconditionally causal reported RCTs. Reporting of medical news in the DÄ medical journal is misleading. Most headlines that imply causal associations were not based on RCTs. Medical journalists should follow standards of reporting scientific study results.
Making stronger causal inferences: Accounting for selection bias in associations between high performance work systems, leadership, and employee and customer satisfaction.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joseph A; Pohler, Dionne M

2018-05-17

We develop competing hypotheses about the relationship between high performance work systems (HPWS) with employee and customer satisfaction. Drawing on 8 years of employee and customer survey data from a financial services firm, we used a recently developed empirical technique-covariate balanced propensity score (CBPS) weighting-to examine if the proposed relationships between HPWS and satisfaction outcomes can be explained by reverse causality, selection effects, or commonly omitted variables such as leadership behavior. The results provide support for leader behaviors as a primary driver of customer satisfaction, rather than HPWS, and also suggest that the problem of reverse causality requires additional attention in future human resource (HR) systems research. Model comparisons suggest that the estimates and conclusions vary across CBPS, meta-analytic, cross-sectional, and time-lagged models (with and without a lagged dependent variable as a control). We highlight the theoretical and methodological implications of the findings for HR systems research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Transcontextual development of motivation in sport injury prevention among elite athletes.

PubMed

Chan, Derwin King Chung; Hagger, Martin S

2012-10-01

The present study investigated the transcontextual process of motivation in sport injury prevention. We examined whether general causality orientation, perceived autonomy support from coaches (PAS), self-determined motivation (SD-Mtv), and basic need satisfaction in a sport context predicted SD-Mtv, beliefs, and adherence with respect to sport injury prevention. Elite athletes (N = 533) completed self-report measures of the predictors (Week 1) and the dependent variables (Week 2). Variance-based structural equation modeling supported hypotheses: SD-Mtv in a sport context was significantly predicted by PAS and basic need satisfaction and was positively associated with SD-Mtv for sport injury prevention when controlling for general causality orientation. SD-Mtv for sport injury prevention was a significant predictor of adherence to injury-preventive behaviors and beliefs regarding safety in sport. In conclusion, the transcontextual mechanism of motivation may explain the process by which distal motivational factors in sport direct the formation of proximal motivation, beliefs, and behaviors of sport injury prevention.
Causal interpretation of correlational studies – Analysis of medical news on the website of the official journal for German physicians

PubMed Central

Rahn, Anne Christin; Bock, Merle; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2018-01-01

Background Media frequently draws inappropriate causal statements from observational studies. We analyzed the reporting of study results in the Medical News section of the German medical journal Deutsches Ärzteblatt (DÄ). Methods Study design: Retrospective quantitative content analysis of randomly selected news reports and related original journal articles and press releases. A medical news report was selected if headlines comprised at least two linked variables. Two raters independently categorized the headline and text of each news report, conclusions of the abstract and full text of the related journal article, and the press release. The assessment instrument comprised five categories from ‘neutral’ to ‘unconditionally causal’. Outcome measures: degree of matching between 1) news headlines and conclusions of the journal article, 2) headlines and text of news reports, 3) text and conclusions, and 4) headlines and press releases. We analyzed whether news headlines rated as unconditionally causal based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Results One-thousand eighty-seven medical news reports were published between April 2015 and May 2016. The final random sample comprised 176 news reports and 100 related press releases. Degree of matching: 1) 45% (79/176) for news headlines and journal article conclusions, 2) 55% (97/176) for headlines and text, 3) 53% (93/176) for text and conclusions, and 4) 41% (41/100) for headlines and press releases. Exaggerations were found in 45% (80/176) of the headlines compared to the conclusions of the related journal article. Sixty-five of 137 unconditionally causal statements of the news headlines were phrased more weakly in the subsequent news text body. Only 52 of 137 headlines (38%) categorized as unconditionally causal reported RCTs. Conclusion Reporting of medical news in the DÄ medical journal is misleading. Most headlines that imply causal associations were not based on RCTs. Medical journalists should follow standards of reporting scientific study results. PMID:29723258
[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

PubMed

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the formulation of causal hypotheses, which will be a basis for all methodological choices. Beyond this step, statistical analysis tools recently developed offer new possibilities to delineate complex relationships, in particular in life course epidemiology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Methods Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. Results For both immigrant groups the physician’s influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p <.05). With regard to coping, both immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p <.05). The only consistent interaction effect that was found indicated that being Albanian-speaking negatively moderated the relationship between physical activity as an attributed cause of back pain and all three identified coping maxims. Conclusion The study shows that differences in causal attribution and coping maxims between immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship. PMID:27583445
Toxicology and Epidemiology: Improving the Science with a Framework for Combining Toxicological and Epidemiological Evidence to Establish Causal Inference

PubMed Central

Adami, Hans-Olov; Berry, Sir Colin L.; Breckenridge, Charles B.; Smith, Lewis L.; Swenberg, James A.; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Weiss, Noel S.; Pastoor, Timothy P.

2011-01-01

Historically, toxicology has played a significant role in verifying conclusions drawn on the basis of epidemiological findings. Agents that were suggested to have a role in human diseases have been tested in animals to firmly establish a causative link. Bacterial pathogens are perhaps the oldest examples, and tobacco smoke and lung cancer and asbestos and mesothelioma provide two more recent examples. With the advent of toxicity testing guidelines and protocols, toxicology took on a role that was intended to anticipate or predict potential adverse effects in humans, and epidemiology, in many cases, served a role in verifying or negating these toxicological predictions. The coupled role of epidemiology and toxicology in discerning human health effects by environmental agents is obvious, but there is currently no systematic and transparent way to bring the data and analysis of the two disciplines together in a way that provides a unified view on an adverse causal relationship between an agent and a disease. In working to advance the interaction between the fields of toxicology and epidemiology, we propose here a five-step “Epid-Tox” process that would focus on: (1) collection of all relevant studies, (2) assessment of their quality, (3) evaluation of the weight of evidence, (4) assignment of a scalable conclusion, and (5) placement on a causal relationship grid. The causal relationship grid provides a clear view of how epidemiological and toxicological data intersect, permits straightforward conclusions with regard to a causal relationship between agent and effect, and can show how additional data can influence conclusions of causality. PMID:21561883
Cross-species coherence in effects and modes of action in support of causality determinations in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Science Assessment for Lead.

PubMed

Lassiter, Meredith Gooding; Owens, Elizabeth Oesterling; Patel, Molini M; Kirrane, Ellen; Madden, Meagan; Richmond-Bryant, Jennifer; Hines, Erin Pias; Davis, J Allen; Vinikoor-Imler, Lisa; Dubois, Jean-Jacques

2015-04-01

The peer-reviewed literature on the health and ecological effects of lead (Pb) indicates common effects and underlying modes of action across multiple organisms for several endpoints. Based on such observations, the United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) applied a cross-species approach in the 2013 Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Lead for evaluating the causality of relationships between Pb exposure and specific endpoints that are shared by humans, laboratory animals, and ecological receptors (i.e., hematological effects, reproductive and developmental effects, and nervous system effects). Other effects of Pb (i.e., cardiovascular, renal, and inflammatory responses) are less commonly assessed in aquatic and terrestrial wildlife limiting the application of cross-species comparisons. Determinations of causality in ISAs are guided by a framework for classifying the weight of evidence across scientific disciplines and across related effects by considering aspects such as biological plausibility and coherence. As illustrated for effects of Pb where evidence across species exists, the integration of coherent effects and common underlying modes of action can serve as a means to substantiate conclusions regarding the causal nature of the health and ecological effects of environmental toxicants. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Architecture of Explanatory Inference in the Human Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Barbey, Aron K.; Patterson, Richard

2011-01-01

Causal reasoning is a ubiquitous feature of human cognition. We continuously seek to understand, at least implicitly and often explicitly, the causal scenarios in which we live, so that we may anticipate what will come next, plan a potential response and envision its outcome, decide among possible courses of action in light of their probable outcomes, make midstream adjustments in our goal-related activities as our situation changes, and so on. A considerable body of research shows that the lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) is crucial for causal reasoning, but also that there are significant differences in the manner in which ventrolateral PFC, dorsolateral PFC, and anterolateral PFC support causal reasoning. We propose, on the basis of research on the evolution, architecture, and functional organization of the lateral PFC, a general framework for understanding its roles in the many and varied sorts of causal reasoning carried out by human beings. Specifically, the ventrolateral PFC supports the generation of basic causal explanations and inferences; dorsolateral PFC supports the evaluation of these scenarios in light of some given normative standard (e.g., of plausibility or correctness in light of real or imagined causal interventions); and anterolateral PFC supports explanation and inference at an even higher level of complexity, coordinating the processes of generation and evaluation with further cognitive processes, and especially with computations of hedonic value and emotional implications of possible behavioral scenarios – considerations that are often critical both for understanding situations causally and for deciding about our own courses of action. PMID:21845182
Is there a causal link between knee loading and knee osteoarthritis progression? A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies and randomised trials

PubMed Central

Henriksen, Marius; Creaby, Mark W; Lund, Hans; Juhl, Carsten; Christensen, Robin

2014-01-01

Objective We performed a systematic review, meta-analysis and assessed the evidence supporting a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression. Design Systematic review, meta-analysis and application of Bradford Hill's considerations on causation. Data sources We searched MEDLINE, Scopus, AMED, CINAHL and SportsDiscus for prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) from 1950 through October 2013. Study eligibility criteria We selected cohort studies and RCTs in which estimates of knee joint loading during walking were used to predict structural knee OA progression assessed by X-ray or MRI. Data analyses Meta-analysis was performed to estimate the combined OR for structural disease progression with higher baseline loading. The likelihood of a causal link between knee joint loading and OA progression was assessed from cohort studies using the Bradford Hill guidelines to derive a 0–4 causation score based on four criteria and examined for confirmation in RCTs. Results Of the 1078 potentially eligible articles, 5 prospective cohort studies were included. The studies included a total of 452 patients relating joint loading to disease progression over 12–72 months. There were very serious limitations associated with the methodological quality of the included studies. The combined OR for disease progression was 1.90 (95% CI 0.85 to 4.25; I2=77%) for each one-unit increment in baseline knee loading. The combined causation score was 0, indicating no causal association between knee loading and knee OA progression. No RCTs were found to confirm or refute the findings from the cohort studies. Conclusions There is very limited and low-quality evidence to support for a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural progression of knee OA. Trial registration number CRD42012003253 PMID:25031196
Designing Effective Supports for Causal Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jonassen, David H.; Ionas, Ioan Gelu

2008-01-01

Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and…
Ocean warming and spread of pathogenic vibrios in the aquatic environment.

PubMed

Vezzulli, Luigi; Colwell, Rita R; Pruzzo, Carla

2013-05-01

Vibrios are among the most common bacteria that inhabit surface waters throughout the world and are responsible for a number of severe infections both in humans and animals. Several reports recently showed that human Vibrio illnesses are increasing worldwide including fatal acute diarrheal diseases, such as cholera, gastroenteritis, wound infections, and septicemia. Many scientists believe this increase may be associated with global warming and rise in sea surface temperature (SST), although not enough evidence is available to support a causal link between emergence of Vibrio infections and climate warming. The effect of increased SST in promoting spread of vibrios in coastal and brackish waters is considered a causal factor explaining this trend. Field and laboratory studies carried out over the past 40 years supported this hypothesis, clearly showing temperature promotes Vibrio growth and persistence in the aquatic environment. Most recently, a long-term retrospective microbiological study carried out in the coastal waters of the southern North Sea provided the first experimental evidence for a positive and significant relationship between SST and Vibrio occurrence over a multidecadal time scale. As a future challenge, macroecological studies of the effects of ocean warming on Vibrio persistence and spread in the aquatic environment over large spatial and temporal scales would conclusively support evidence acquired to date combined with studies of the impact of global warming on epidemiologically relevant variables, such as host susceptibility and exposure. Assessing a causal link between ongoing climate change and enhanced growth and spread of vibrios and related illness is expected to improve forecast and mitigate future outbreaks associated with these pathogens.
Exploring Causality between TV Viewing and Weight Change in Young and Middle-Aged Adults. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

PubMed Central

Helajärvi, Harri; Rosenström, Tom; Pahkala, Katja; Kähönen, Mika; Lehtimäki, Terho; Heinonen, Olli J.; Oikonen, Mervi; Tammelin, Tuija; Viikari, Jorma S. A.; Raitakari, Olli T.

2014-01-01

Background Television viewing time (TV time) is associated with increased weight and obesity, but it is unclear whether this relation is causal. Methods and Results We evaluated changes in TV time, waist circumference (waist) and body mass index (BMI) in participants of the population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study (761 women, 626 men aged 33–50 years in 2011). Waist and BMI were measured, and TV time was self-reported in 2001, 2007, and 2011. Changes in waist and BMI between 2001 and 2011 were studied a) for the whole group, b) in groups with constantly low (≤1 h/d), moderate (1–3 h/d), or high (≥3 h/d) TV time, and c) in groups with ≥1 hour in-/decrease in daily TV time between 2001 and 2011. BMIs in 1986 were also evaluated. We explored the causal relationship of TV time with waist and BMI by classical temporality criterion and recently introduced causal-discovery algorithms (pairwise causality measures). Both methods supported the hypothesis that TV time is causative to weight gain, and no evidence was found for reverse or bidirectional causality. Constantly low TV time was associated with less pronounced increase in waist and BMI, and waist and BMI increase was lower with decreased TV time (P<0.05). The increase in waist and BMI was at least 2-fold in the high TV time group compared to the low TV time group (P<0.05). Adjustment for age, sex, BMI/waist in 2001, physical activity, energy intake, or smoking did not change the results. Conclusions In young and middle-aged adults, constantly high TV time is temporally antecedent to BMI and waist increase. PMID:25028965
Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

PubMed

Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

2005-04-01

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.
Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

PubMed Central

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-01-01

Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies. PMID:17645806
What are the causal effects of breastfeeding on IQ, obesity and blood pressure? Evidence from comparing high-income with middle-income cohorts.

PubMed

Brion, Marie-Jo A; Lawlor, Debbie A; Matijasevich, Alicia; Horta, Bernardo; Anselmi, Luciana; Araújo, Cora L; Menezes, Ana Maria B; Victora, Cesar G; Smith, George Davey

2011-06-01

A novel approach is explored for improving causal inference in observational studies by comparing cohorts from high-income with low- or middle-income countries (LMIC), where confounding structures differ. This is applied to assessing causal effects of breastfeeding on child blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI) and intelligence quotient (IQ). Standardized approaches for assessing the confounding structure of breastfeeding by socio-economic position were applied to the British Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) (N ≃ 5000) and Brazilian Pelotas 1993 cohorts (N ≃ 1000). This was used to improve causal inference regarding associations of breastfeeding with child BP, BMI and IQ. Analyses were extended to include results from a meta-analysis of five LMICs (N ≃ 10 000) and compared with a randomized trial of breastfeeding promotion. Findings Although higher socio-economic position was strongly associated with breastfeeding in ALSPAC, there was little such patterning in Pelotas. In ALSPAC, breastfeeding was associated with lower BP, lower BMI and higher IQ, adjusted for confounders, but in the directions expected if due to socioeconomic patterning. In contrast, in Pelotas, breastfeeding was not strongly associated with BP or BMI but was associated with higher IQ. Differences in associations observed between ALSPAC and the LMIC meta-analysis were in line with those observed between ALSPAC and Pelotas, but with robust evidence of heterogeneity detected between ALSPAC and the LMIC meta-analysis associations. Trial data supported the conclusions inferred by the cross-cohort comparisons, which provided evidence for causal effects on IQ but not for BP or BMI. While reported associations of breastfeeding with child BP and BMI are likely to reflect residual confounding, breastfeeding may have causal effects on IQ. Comparing associations between populations with differing confounding structures can be used to improve causal inference in observational studies.
Relatedness, conflict, and the evolution of eusociality.

PubMed

Liao, Xiaoyun; Rong, Stephen; Queller, David C

2015-03-01

The evolution of sterile worker castes in eusocial insects was a major problem in evolutionary theory until Hamilton developed a method called inclusive fitness. He used it to show that sterile castes could evolve via kin selection, in which a gene for altruistic sterility is favored when the altruism sufficiently benefits relatives carrying the gene. Inclusive fitness theory is well supported empirically and has been applied to many other areas, but a recent paper argued that the general method of inclusive fitness was wrong and advocated an alternative population genetic method. The claim of these authors was bolstered by a new model of the evolution of eusociality with novel conclusions that appeared to overturn some major results from inclusive fitness. Here we report an expanded examination of this kind of model for the evolution of eusociality and show that all three of its apparently novel conclusions are essentially false. Contrary to their claims, genetic relatedness is important and causal, workers are agents that can evolve to be in conflict with the queen, and eusociality is not so difficult to evolve. The misleading conclusions all resulted not from incorrect math but from overgeneralizing from narrow assumptions or parameter values. For example, all of their models implicitly assumed high relatedness, but modifying the model to allow lower relatedness shows that relatedness is essential and causal in the evolution of eusociality. Their modeling strategy, properly applied, actually confirms major insights of inclusive fitness studies of kin selection. This broad agreement of different models shows that social evolution theory, rather than being in turmoil, is supported by multiple theoretical approaches. It also suggests that extensive prior work using inclusive fitness, from microbial interactions to human evolution, should be considered robust unless shown otherwise.
Trust and health: testing the reverse causality hypothesis

PubMed Central

Giordano, Giuseppe Nicola; Lindström, Martin

2016-01-01

Background Social capital research has consistently shown positive associations between generalised trust and health outcomes over 2 decades. Longitudinal studies attempting to test causal relationships further support the theory that trust is an independent predictor of health. However, as the reverse causality hypothesis has yet to be empirically tested, a knowledge gap remains. The aim of this study, therefore, was to investigate if health status predicts trust. Methods Data employed in this study came from 4 waves of the British Household Panel Survey between years 2000 and 2007 (N=8114). The sample was stratified by baseline trust to investigate temporal relationships between prior self-rated health (SRH) and changes in trust. We used logistic regression models with random effects, as trust was expected to be more similar within the same individuals over time. Results From the ‘Can trust at baseline’ cohort, poor SRH at time (t−1) predicted low trust at time (t) (OR=1.38). Likewise, good health predicted high trust within the ‘Cannot’ trust cohort (OR=1.30). These patterns of positive association remained after robustness checks, which adjusted for misclassification of outcome (trust) status and the existence of other temporal pathways. Conclusions This study offers empirical evidence to support the circular nature of trust/health relationship. The stability of association between prior health status and changes in trust over time differed between cohorts, hinting at the existence of complex pathways rather than a simple positive feedback loop. PMID:26546287
Content and strategy in syllogistic reasoning.

PubMed

Marrero, Hipólito; Elena, Gámez

2004-09-01

Syllogistic reasoning has been investigated as a general deductive process (Johnson-Laird & Byrne, 1991; Revlis, 1975; Rips, 1994). However, several studies have demonstrated the role of cognitive strategies in this type of reasoning. These strategies focus on the method used by the participants (Ford, 1995; Gilhooly, Logie, Wetherick, & Wynn, 1993) and strategies related to different interpretations of the quantified premises (Roberts, Newstead, & Griggs, 2001). In this paper, we propose that content (as well as individual cognitive differences) is an important factor in inducing a certain strategy or method for syllogistic resolution. Specifically, we suggest that syllogisms with a causal conditional premise that can be extended by an agency premise induce the use of a conditional method. To demonstrate this, we carried out two experiments. Experiment 1 provided evidence that this type of syllogism leads participants to draw the predicted conditional conclusions, in contrast with control content syllogisms. In Experiment 2, we demonstrated that the drawing of conditional conclusions is based on a causal conditional to an agent representation of the syllogism premises. These results support the role of content as inducing a particular strategy for syllogistic resolution. The implications of these results are discussed.
The Kishon affair: science, law, and the politics of causation.

PubMed

Golan, Tal

2010-12-01

This article describes how science and law were called upon (and failed) to resolve a controversy that created a painful rift between the Israeli State and some of its elite soldiers. The controversy, which came to be known as "the Kishon affair," erupted in 2000, when veterans of an elite and secretive unit in the Israeli navy claimed that pollution in the Kishon River where they had trained and dived during their military service had been the cause of a rash of cancers. The veterans demanded that the Ministry of Defense take responsibility for their illnesses, finance their medical treatment, and support their families if they die. The military denied the causal connection between the polluted river and the veterans' cancers and rejected their demands. The dispute quickly escalated into a bitter public controversy, and a high-rank commission comprised of one of Israel's top jurists and two prominent scientists was called upon to study the disputed causal relation and reveal its true nature. However, after nearly three years of intense inquiry the jurist and the scientists reached opposing conclusions: the jurist found a causal connection while the scientists rejected it.

Aristotle and Information Theory: A Comparison of the Influence of Causal Assumptions on Two Theories of Communication. (Janua Linguarum Series Maior 35.)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenfield, Lawrence William

This study sought to discover what critical apparatus would be most appropriate for observers of verbal discourse who choose to accept Aristotelian or "information theory" causal accounts of dynamic process. The major conclusions were: (1) Both causal systems employ a static grid to express relationships; but while the Aristotelian relations are…
New Evidence on Causal Relationship between Approximate Number System (ANS) Acuity and Arithmetic Ability in Elementary-School Students: A Longitudinal Cross-Lagged Analysis.

PubMed

He, Yunfeng; Zhou, Xinlin; Shi, Dexin; Song, Hairong; Zhang, Hui; Shi, Jiannong

2016-01-01

Approximate number system (ANS) acuity and mathematical ability have been found to be closely associated in recent studies. However, whether and how these two measures are causally related still remain less addressed. There are two hypotheses about the possible causal relationship: ANS acuity influences mathematical performances, or access to math education sharpens ANS acuity. Evidences in support of both hypotheses have been reported, but these two hypotheses have never been tested simultaneously. Therefore, questions still remain whether only one-direction or reciprocal causal relationships existed in the association. In this work, we provided a new evidence on the causal relationship between ANS acuity and arithmetic ability. ANS acuity and mathematical ability of elementary-school students were measured sequentially at three time points within one year, and all possible causal directions were evaluated simultaneously using cross-lagged regression analysis. The results show that ANS acuity influences later arithmetic ability while the reverse causal direction was not supported. Our finding adds a strong evidence to the causal association between ANS acuity and mathematical ability, and also has important implications for educational intervention designed to train ANS acuity and thereby promote mathematical ability.
New Evidence on Causal Relationship between Approximate Number System (ANS) Acuity and Arithmetic Ability in Elementary-School Students: A Longitudinal Cross-Lagged Analysis

PubMed Central

He, Yunfeng; Zhou, Xinlin; Shi, Dexin; Song, Hairong; Zhang, Hui; Shi, Jiannong

2016-01-01

Approximate number system (ANS) acuity and mathematical ability have been found to be closely associated in recent studies. However, whether and how these two measures are causally related still remain less addressed. There are two hypotheses about the possible causal relationship: ANS acuity influences mathematical performances, or access to math education sharpens ANS acuity. Evidences in support of both hypotheses have been reported, but these two hypotheses have never been tested simultaneously. Therefore, questions still remain whether only one-direction or reciprocal causal relationships existed in the association. In this work, we provided a new evidence on the causal relationship between ANS acuity and arithmetic ability. ANS acuity and mathematical ability of elementary-school students were measured sequentially at three time points within one year, and all possible causal directions were evaluated simultaneously using cross-lagged regression analysis. The results show that ANS acuity influences later arithmetic ability while the reverse causal direction was not supported. Our finding adds a strong evidence to the causal association between ANS acuity and mathematical ability, and also has important implications for educational intervention designed to train ANS acuity and thereby promote mathematical ability. PMID:27462291
Framework for assessing causality of air pollution-related health effects for reviews of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

PubMed

Owens, Elizabeth Oesterling; Patel, Molini M; Kirrane, Ellen; Long, Thomas C; Brown, James; Cote, Ila; Ross, Mary A; Dutton, Steven J

2017-08-01

To inform regulatory decisions on the risk due to exposure to ambient air pollution, consistent and transparent communication of the scientific evidence is essential. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) develops the Integrated Science Assessment (ISA), which contains evaluations of the policy-relevant science on the effects of criteria air pollutants and conveys critical science judgments to inform decisions on the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. This article discusses the approach and causal framework used in the ISAs to evaluate and integrate various lines of scientific evidence and draw conclusions about the causal nature of air pollution-induced health effects. The framework has been applied to diverse pollutants and cancer and noncancer effects. To demonstrate its flexibility, we provide examples of causality judgments on relationships between health effects and pollutant exposures, drawing from recent ISAs for ozone, lead, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen. U.S. EPA's causal framework has increased transparency by establishing a structured process for evaluating and integrating various lines of evidence and uniform approach for determining causality. The framework brings consistency and specificity to the conclusions in the ISA, and the flexibility of the framework makes it relevant for evaluations of evidence across media and health effects. Published by Elsevier Inc.
In Support of Clinical Case Reports: A System of Causality Assessment

PubMed Central

Hamre, Harald J.; Kienle, Gunver S.

2013-01-01

The usefulness of clinical research depends on an assessment of causality. This assessment determines what constitutes clinical evidence. Case reports are an example of evidence that is frequently overlooked because it is believed they cannot address causal links between treatment and outcomes. This may be a mistake. Clarity on the topic of causality and its assessment will be of benefit for researchers and clinicians. This article outlines an overall system of causality and causality assessment. The system proposed involves two dimensions: horizontal and vertical; each of these dimensions consists of three different types of causality and three corresponding types of causality assessment. Included in this system are diverse forms of case causality illustrated with examples from everyday life and clinical medicine. Assessing case causality can complement conventional clinical research in an era of personalized medicine. PMID:24416665
Wilhelm Troll (1897 - 1978): idealistic morphology, physics, and phylogenetics.

PubMed

Rieppel, Olivier

2011-01-01

Idealistic morphology as articulated by the botanist Wilhelm Troll, the main target of the critique voiced by the early phylogeneticists, was firmly embedded in its contemporary scientific, cultural, and political context. Troll appealed to theoretical developments in contemporary physics in support of his research program. He understood burgeoning quantum mechanics not only to threaten the unity of physics, but also the validity of the principle of causality. Troll used this insight in support of his claim of a dualism in biology, relegating the causal-analytical approach to physiology, while rejuvenating the Goethean paradigm in comparative morphology. This embedded idealistic morphology in the völkisch tradition that characterized German culture during the Weimar Republic and its aftermath. In contrast, the contemporary phylogeneticists anchored their research program in the rise of logical positivism and in Darwin's principle of natural selection. This, in turn, brought phylogenetic systematists of the late 1930s and early 1940s into the orbit of national-socialist racial theory and eugenics. In conclusion, the early debate between idealistic morphologists and phylogenetic systematists was not only ideologically tainted, but also implied a philosophical impasse that is best characterized as a conflict between the Goethean and Newtonian paradigm of natural science.
Who deserves health care? The effects of causal attributions and group cues on public attitudes about responsibility for health care costs.

PubMed

Gollust, Sarah E; Lynch, Julia

2011-12-01

This research investigates the impact of cues about ascriptive group characteristics (race, class, gender) and the causes of ill health (health behaviors, inborn biological traits, social systemic factors) on beliefs about who deserves society's help in paying for the costs of medical treatment. Drawing on data from three original vignette experiments embedded in a nationally representative survey of American adults, we find that respondents are reluctant to blame or deny societal support in response to explicit cues about racial attributes--but equally explicit cues about the causal impact of individual behaviors on health have large effects on expressed attitudes. Across all three experiments, a focus on individual behavioral causes of illness is associated with increased support for individual responsibility for health care costs and lower support for government-financed health insurance. Beliefs about social groups and causal attributions are, however, tightly intertwined. We find that when groups suffering ill health are defined in racial, class, or gender terms, Americans differ in their attribution of health disparities to individual behaviors versus biological or systemic factors. Because causal attributions also affect health policy opinions, varying patterns of causal attribution may reinforce group stereotypes and undermine support for universal access to health care.
Multivariate causal attribution and cost-effectiveness of a national mass media campaign in the Philippines.

PubMed

Kincaid, D Lawrence; Do, Mai Phuong

2006-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis is based on a simple formula. A dollar estimate of the total cost to conduct a program is divided by the number of people estimated to have been affected by it in terms of some intended outcome. The direct, total costs of most communication campaigns are usually available. Estimating the amount of effect that can be attributed to the communication alone, however is problematical in full-coverage, mass media campaigns where the randomized control group design is not feasible. Single-equation, multiple regression analysis controls for confounding variables but does not adequately address the issue of causal attribution. In this article, multivariate causal attribution (MCA) methods are applied to data from a sample survey of 1,516 married women in the Philippines to obtain a valid measure of the number of new adopters of modern contraceptives that can be causally attributed to a national mass media campaign and to calculate its cost-effectiveness. The MCA analysis uses structural equation modeling to test the causal pathways and to test for endogeneity, biprobit analysis to test for direct effects of the campaign and endogeneity, and propensity score matching to create a statistically equivalent, matched control group that approximates the results that would have been obtained from a randomized control group design. The MCA results support the conclusion that the observed, 6.4 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive use can be attributed to the national mass media campaign and to its indirect effects on attitudes toward contraceptives. This net increase represented 348,695 new adopters in the population of married women at a cost of U.S. $1.57 per new adopter.
Statistical Evidence Suggests that Inattention Drives Hyperactivity/Impulsivity in Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Sokolova, Elena; Groot, Perry; Claassen, Tom; van Hulzen, Kimm J.; Glennon, Jeffrey C.; Franke, Barbara

2016-01-01

Background Numerous factor analytic studies consistently support a distinction between two symptom domains of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. Both dimensions show high internal consistency and moderate to strong correlations with each other. However, it is not clear what drives this strong correlation. The aim of this paper is to address this issue. Method We applied a sophisticated approach for causal discovery on three independent data sets of scores of the two ADHD dimensions in NeuroIMAGE (total N = 675), ADHD-200 (N = 245), and IMpACT (N = 164), assessed by different raters and instruments, and further used information on gender or a genetic risk haplotype. Results In all data sets we found strong statistical evidence for the same pattern: the clear dependence between hyperactivity/impulsivity symptom level and an established genetic factor (either gender or risk haplotype) vanishes when one conditions upon inattention symptom level. Under reasonable assumptions, e.g., that phenotypes do not cause genotypes, a causal model that is consistent with this pattern contains a causal path from inattention to hyperactivity/impulsivity. Conclusions The robust dependency cancellation observed in three different data sets suggests that inattention is a driving factor for hyperactivity/impulsivity. This causal hypothesis can be further validated in intervention studies. Our model suggests that interventions that affect inattention will also have an effect on the level of hyperactivity/impulsivity. On the other hand, interventions that affect hyperactivity/impulsivity would not change the level of inattention. This causal model may explain earlier findings on heritable factors causing ADHD reported in the study of twins with learning difficulties. PMID:27768717
Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

2014-07-01

One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.
Overcoming confirmation bias in causal attribution: a case study of antibiotic resistance risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony; Popken, Douglas A

2008-10-01

When they do not use formal quantitative risk assessment methods, many scientists (like other people) make mistakes and exhibit biases in reasoning about causation, if-then relations, and evidence. Decision-related conclusions or causal explanations are reached prematurely based on narrative plausibility rather than adequate factual evidence. Then, confirming evidence is sought and emphasized, but disconfirming evidence is ignored or discounted. This tendency has serious implications for health-related public policy discussions and decisions. We provide examples occurring in antimicrobial health risk assessments, including a case study of a recently reported positive relation between virginiamycin (VM) use in poultry and risk of resistance to VM-like (streptogramin) antibiotics in humans. This finding has been used to argue that poultry consumption causes increased resistance risks, that serious health impacts may result, and therefore use of VM in poultry should be restricted. However, the original study compared healthy vegetarians to hospitalized poultry consumers. Our examination of the same data using conditional independence tests for potential causality reveals that poultry consumption acted as a surrogate for hospitalization in this study. After accounting for current hospitalization status, no evidence remains supporting a causal relationship between poultry consumption and increased streptogramin resistance. This example emphasizes both the importance and the practical possibility of analyzing and presenting quantitative risk information using data analysis techniques (such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and conditional independence tests) that are as free as possible from potential selection, confirmation, and modeling biases.
Sensory Impairments and Autism: A Re-Examination of Causal Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerrard, Sue; Rugg, Gordon

2009-01-01

Sensory impairments are widely reported in autism, but remain largely unexplained by existing models. This article examines Kanner's causal reasoning and identifies unsupported assumptions implicit in later empirical work. Our analysis supports a heterogeneous causal model for autistic characteristics. We propose that the development of a…
Feature Inference and the Causal Structure of Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rehder, B.; Burnett, R.C.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this article was to establish how theoretical category knowledge-specifically, knowledge of the causal relations that link the features of categories-supports the ability to infer the presence of unobserved features. Our experiments were designed to test proposals that causal knowledge is represented psychologically as Bayesian…
Helicobacter pylori infection as a cause of gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia: a systematic overview.

PubMed

Veldhuyzen van Zanten, S J; Sherman, P M

1994-01-15

To evaluate current evidence for a causal relation between Helicobacter pylori infection and gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia. A MEDLINE search for articles published in English between January 1983 and December 1992 with the use of MeSH terms Helicobacter pylori, gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer, dyspepsia and clinical trial; abstracts were excluded. Six journals and Current Contents were searched manually for pertinent articles published in that time frame. Original studies with at least 25 patients, case reports and reviews that examined the relation between H. pylori and the four gastrointestinal disorders; 350 articles were on gastritis, 122 on duodenal ulcer, 44 on gastric cancer and 96 on nonulcer dyspepsia. The quality of the studies was rated independently on a four-point scale. The strength of the evidence was assessed using a six-point scale for each of the eight established guidelines for determining a causal relation. There was conclusive evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori infection and histologic gastritis. Koch's postulates for the identification of a microorganism as the causative agent of a disease were fulfilled for H. pylori as a causative agent of gastritis. There was strong evidence that H. pylori is the main cause of duodenal ulcers not induced by nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, but all of Koch's postulates were not fulfilled. There was moderate epidemiologic evidence of an association between chronic H. pylori infection and gastric cancer. There was a lack of convincing evidence of a causal association between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia. The evidence supports a strong causal relation between H. pylori infection and gastritis and duodenal ulcer and a moderate relation between such infection and gastric cancer. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of H. pylori in these disorders. Thus far, there is no evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia.
Is there a relation between the 2D Causal Set action and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benincasa, Dionigi M. T.

2011-07-01

We investigate the relation between the two dimensional Causal Set action, Script S, and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem (LGBT). We give compelling reasons why the answer to the title's question is no. In support of this point of view we calculate the causal set inspired action of causal intervals in some two dimensional spacetimes: Minkowski, the flat cylinder and the flat trousers.
Perceived causal relations between anxiety, posttraumatic stress and depression: extension to moderation, mediation, and network analysis.

PubMed

Frewen, Paul A; Schmittmann, Verena D; Bringmann, Laura F; Borsboom, Denny

2013-01-01

Previous research demonstrates that posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame are frequently co-occurring problems that may be causally related. The present study utilized Perceived Causal Relations (PCR) scaling in order to assess participants' own attributions concerning whether and to what degree these co-occurring problems may be causally interrelated. 288 young adults rated the frequency and respective PCR scores associating their symptoms of posttraumatic reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. PCR scores were found to moderate associations between the frequency of posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. Network analyses showed that the number of feedback loops between PCR scores was positively associated with symptom frequencies. Results tentatively support the interpretation of PCR scores as moderators of the association between different psychological problems, and lend support to the hypothesis that increased symptom frequencies are observed in the presence of an increased number of causal feedback loops between symptoms. Additionally, a perceived causal role for the reexperiencing of traumatic memories in exacerbating emotional disturbance was identified.
Category transfer in sequential causal learning: the unbroken mechanism hypothesis.

PubMed

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn; von Sydow, Momme; Waldmann, Michael R

2011-07-01

The goal of the present set of studies is to explore the boundary conditions of category transfer in causal learning. Previous research has shown that people are capable of inducing categories based on causal learning input, and they often transfer these categories to new causal learning tasks. However, occasionally learners abandon the learned categories and induce new ones. Whereas previously it has been argued that transfer is only observed with essentialist categories in which the hidden properties are causally relevant for the target effect in the transfer relation, we here propose an alternative explanation, the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. This hypothesis claims that categories are transferred from a previously learned causal relation to a new causal relation when learners assume a causal mechanism linking the two relations that is continuous and unbroken. The findings of two causal learning experiments support the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Non-parametric causality detection: An application to social media and financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsapeli, Fani; Musolesi, Mirco; Tino, Peter

2017-10-01

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about a particular parametric form of the model expressing statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of observed factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them.
The average expectable environment is not good enough: a response to Scarr.

PubMed

Baumrind, D

1993-10-01

I take the position, contrary to Scarr's, that the details of socialization patterns are crucial to an understanding of normal and deviant development. Considerable evidence has accrued to justify the claim that what normal parents do or fail to do crucially affects their children's development. Research is cited to support the argument that better than "good enough" parenting optimizes the development of both normal and vulnerable children, and that parents' belief in their own effectiveness further enhances their caregiving, whereas causal attributions that assign responsibility for child outcomes to genetic factors that parents cannot change undermine parents' belief in their own effectiveness. The strong conclusions Scarr draws from heritability analyses to support her thesis that genotypes drive experiences overlook their inherent limitations.
Altered effective connectivity of default model brain network underlying amnestic MCI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hao; Wang, Yonghui; Tian, Jie

2012-02-01

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is the transitional, heterogeneous continuum from healthy elderly to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Previous studies have shown that brain functional activity in the default mode network (DMN) is impaired in MCI patients. However, the altered effective connectivity of the DMN in MCI patients remains largely unknown. The present study combined an independent component analysis (ICA) approach with Granger causality analysis (mGCA) to investigate the effective connectivity within the DMN in 12 amnestic MCI patients and 12 age-matched healthy elderly. Compared to the healthy control, the MCI exhibited decreased functional activity in the posterior DMN regions, as well as a trend towards activity increases in anterior DMN regions. Results from mGCA further supported this conclusion that the causal influence projecting to the precuneus/PCC became much weaker in MCI, while stronger interregional interactions emerged within the frontal-parietal cortices. These findings suggested that abnormal effective connectivity within the DMN may elucidate the dysfunctional and compensatory processes in MCI brain networks.

Impact of Extended Education/Training in Positive Behaviour Support on Staff Knowledge, Causal Attributions and Emotional Responses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGill, Peter; Bradshaw, Jill; Hughes, Andrea

2007-01-01

Background: This study sought to gather information about the impact of extended training in positive behaviour support on staff knowledge, causal attributions and emotional responses. Methods: Students completed questionnaires at the beginning, middle and end of a University Diploma course to measure changes in their knowledge of challenging…
Processing of positive-causal and negative-causal coherence relations in primary school children and adults: a test of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach in German.

PubMed

Knoepke, Julia; Richter, Tobias; Isberner, Maj-Britt; Naumann, Johannes; Neeb, Yvonne; Weinert, Sabine

2017-03-01

Establishing local coherence relations is central to text comprehension. Positive-causal coherence relations link a cause and its consequence, whereas negative-causal coherence relations add a contrastive meaning (negation) to the causal link. According to the cumulative cognitive complexity approach, negative-causal coherence relations are cognitively more complex than positive-causal ones. Therefore, they require greater cognitive effort during text comprehension and are acquired later in language development. The present cross-sectional study tested these predictions for German primary school children from Grades 1 to 4 and adults in reading and listening comprehension. Accuracy data in a semantic verification task support the predictions of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach. Negative-causal coherence relations are cognitively more demanding than positive-causal ones. Moreover, our findings indicate that children's comprehension of negative-causal coherence relations continues to develop throughout the course of primary school. Findings are discussed with respect to the generalizability of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach to German.
Perceptions of the roles of behaviour and genetics in disease risk: are they associated with behaviour change attempts.

PubMed

Nguyen, Anh B; Oh, April; Moser, Richard P; Patrick, Heather

2015-01-01

The aims of the present study were to (i) examine the prevalence of perceived behavioural and genetic causal beliefs for four chronic conditions (i.e. obesity, heart disease, diabetes and cancer); (ii) to examine the association between these causal beliefs and attempts at behaviour change (i.e. physical activity, weight management, fruit intake, vegetable intake and soda intake). The data come from the Health Information National Trends Survey, a nationally representative population-based survey of adults (N = 3407). Results indicated that participants held both behavioural and genetic causal beliefs for all four chronic conditions. Multivariate analyses indicated that behavioural causal beliefs were significantly associated with attempts to increase physical activity and vegetable intake and to decrease weight. Genetic causal beliefs for cancer were significantly associated with reported attempts to maintain weight. Behaviour and genetic causal beliefs were not associated with changes in either fruit or soda intake. In conclusion, while behavioural causal beliefs are associated with behavioural change, measurement must capture disease-specific behavioural causal beliefs as they are associated with different health behaviours.
New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of "signed path coefficient Granger causality," a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an "excitatory" or "inhibitory" influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation.
Translating context to causality in cardiovascular disparities research.

PubMed

Benn, Emma K T; Goldfeld, Keith S

2016-04-01

Moving from a descriptive focus to a comprehensive analysis grounded in causal inference can be particularly daunting for disparities researchers. However, even a simple model supported by the theoretical underpinnings of causality gives researchers a better chance to make correct inferences about possible interventions that can benefit our most vulnerable populations. This commentary provides a brief description of how race/ethnicity and context relate to questions of causality, and uses a hypothetical scenario to explore how different researchers might analyze the data to estimate causal effects of interest. Perhaps although not entirely removed of bias, these causal estimates will move us a step closer to understanding how to intervene. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Is chronic insomnia a precursor to major depression? Epidemiological and biological findings.

PubMed

Baglioni, Chiara; Riemann, Dieter

2012-10-01

Insomnia has been found to be a clinical predictor of subsequent depression. Nevertheless the biological processes underlying this causal relationship are yet not fully understood. Both conditions share a common imbalance of the arousal system. Patients with insomnia present fragmented REM sleep, which probably interferes with basal processes of emotion regulation. The interaction between the arousal and the affective system with the persistence of the disorder could slowly alter also the cognitive system and lead to depression. Although preliminary results seem to support this hypothesis, data are still too few to make valid conclusions.
Identifying Conditions That Support Causal Inference in Observational Studies in Education: Empirical Evidence from within Study Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hallberg, Kelly

2013-01-01

This dissertation is a collection of three papers that employ empirical within study comparisons (WSCs) to identify conditions that support causal inference in observational studies. WSC studies empirically estimate the extent to which a given observational study reproduces the result of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) when both share the same…
What Do Patients Think about the Cause of Their Mental Disorder? A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Causal Beliefs of Mental Disorder in Inpatients in Psychosomatic Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Magaard, Julia Luise; Schulz, Holger; Brütt, Anna Levke

2017-01-01

Background Patients’ causal beliefs about their mental disorders are important for treatment because they affect illness-related behaviours. However, there are few studies exploring patients’ causal beliefs about their mental disorder. Objectives (a) To qualitatively explore patients’ causal beliefs of their mental disorder, (b) to explore frequencies of patients stating causal beliefs, and (c) to investigate differences of causal beliefs according to patients’ primary diagnoses. Method Inpatients in psychosomatic rehabilitation were asked an open-ended question about their three most important causal beliefs about their mental illness. Answers were obtained from 678 patients, with primary diagnoses of depression (N = 341), adjustment disorder (N = 75), reaction to severe stress (N = 57) and anxiety disorders (N = 40). Two researchers developed a category system inductively and categorised the reported causal beliefs. Qualitative analysis has been supplemented by logistic regression analyses. Results The causal beliefs were organized into twelve content-related categories. Causal beliefs referring to “problems at work” (47%) and “problems in social environment” (46%) were most frequently mentioned by patients with mental disorders. 35% of patients indicate causal beliefs related to “self/internal states”. Patients with depression and patients with anxiety disorders stated similar causal beliefs, whereas patients with reactions to severe stress and adjustment disorders stated different causal beliefs in comparison to patients with depression. Limitations There was no opportunity for further exploration, because we analysed written documents. Conclusions These results add a detailed insight to mentally ill patients’ causal beliefs to illness perception literature. Additionally, evidence about differences in frequencies of causal beliefs between different illness groups complement previous findings. For future research it is important to clarify the relation between patients’ causal beliefs and the chosen treatment. PMID:28056066
The Russo-Williamson Theses in the social sciences: causal inference drawing on two types of evidence.

PubMed

Claveau, François

2012-12-01

This article examines two theses formulated by Russo and Williamson (2007) in their study of causal inference in the health sciences. The two theses are assessed against evidence from a specific case in the social sciences, i.e., research on the institutional determinants of the aggregate unemployment rate. The first Russo-Williamson Thesis is that a causal claim can only be established when it is jointly supported by difference-making and mechanistic evidence. This thesis is shown not to hold. While researchers in my case study draw extensively on both types of evidence, one causal claim out of the three analyzed is established even though it is exclusively supported by mechanistic evidence. The second Russo-Williamson Thesis is that standard accounts of causality fail to handle the dualist epistemology highlighted in the first Thesis. I argue that a counterfactual-manipulationist account of causality--which is endorsed by many philosophers as well as many social scientists--can perfectly make sense of the typical strategy in my case study to draw on both difference-making and mechanistic evidence; it is just an instance of the common strategy of increasing evidential variety. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Causal role for inverse reasoning on obsessive-compulsive symptoms: Preliminary evidence from a cognitive bias modification for interpretation bias study.

PubMed

Wong, Shiu F; Grisham, Jessica R

2017-12-01

The inference-based approach (IBA) is a cognitive account of the genesis and maintenance of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). According to the IBA, individuals with OCD are prone to using inverse reasoning, in which hypothetical causes form the basis of conclusions about reality. Several studies have provided preliminary support for an association between features of the IBA and OCD symptoms. However, there are currently no studies that have investigated the proposed causal relationship of inverse reasoning in OCD. In a non-clinical sample (N = 187), we used an interpretive cognitive bias procedure to train a bias towards using inverse reasoning (n = 64), healthy sensory-based reasoning (n = 65), or a control condition (n = 58). Participants were randomly allocated to these training conditions. This manipulation allowed us to assess whether, consistent with the IBA, inverse reasoning training increased compulsive-like behaviours and self-reported OCD symptoms. Results indicated that compared to a control condition, participants trained in inverse reasoning reported more OCD symptoms and were more avoidant of potentially contaminated objects. Moreover, change in inverse reasoning bias was a small but significant mediator of the relationship between training condition and behavioural avoidance. Conversely, training in a healthy (non-inverse) reasoning style did not have any effect on symptoms or behaviour relative to the control condition. As this study was conducted in a non-clinical sample, we were unable to generalise our findings to a clinical population. Findings generally support the IBA model by providing preliminary evidence of a causal role for inverse reasoning in OCD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Gateway Effects: Why the Cited Evidence Does Not Support Their Existence for Low-Risk Tobacco Products (and What Evidence Would).

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V

2015-05-21

It is often claimed that low-risk drugs still create harm because of "gateway effects", in which they cause the use of a high-risk alternative. Such claims are popular among opponents of tobacco harm reduction, claiming that low-risk tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco) cause people to start smoking, sometimes backed by empirical studies that ostensibly support the claim. However, these studies consistently ignore the obvious alternative causal pathways, particularly that observed associations might represent causation in the opposite direction (smoking causes people to seek low-risk alternatives) or confounding (the same individual characteristics increase the chance of using any tobacco product). Due to these complications, any useful analysis must deal with simultaneity and confounding by common cause. In practice, existing analyses seem almost as if they were designed to provide teaching examples about drawing simplistic and unsupported causal conclusions from observed associations. The present analysis examines what evidence and research strategies would be needed to empirically detect such a gateway effect, if there were one, explaining key methodological concepts including causation and confounding, examining the logic of the claim, identifying potentially useful data, and debunking common fallacies on both sides of the argument, as well as presenting an extended example of proper empirical testing. The analysis demonstrates that none of the empirical studies to date that are purported to show a gateway effect from tobacco harm reduction products actually does so. The observations and approaches can be generalized to other cases where observed association of individual characteristics in cross-sectional data could result from any of several causal relationships.
What is the effect of unemployment on all-cause mortality? A cohort study using propensity score matching.

PubMed

Clemens, Tom; Popham, Frank; Boyle, Paul

2015-02-01

There is a strong association between unemployment and mortality, but whether this relationship is causal remains debated. This study utilizes population-level administrative data from Scotland within a propensity score framework to explore whether the association between unemployment and mortality may be causal. The study examined a sample of working men and women aged 25-54 in 1991. Subsequent employment status in 2001 was observed (in work or unemployed) and the relative all-cause mortality risk of unemployment between 2001 and 2010 was estimated. To account for potential selection into unemployment of those in poor health, a propensity score matching approach was used. Matching variables were observed prior to unemployment and included health status up to the year of unemployment (hospital admissions and self-reported limiting long-term illness), as well as measures of socioeconomic position. Unemployment was associated with a significant all-cause mortality risk relative to employment for men (hazard ratio [HR] 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.55). This effect was robust to controlling for prior health and sociodemographic characteristics. Effects for women were smaller and statistically insignificant (HR 1.51; 95% CI 0.68-3.37). For men, the findings support the notion that the often-observed association between unemployment and mortality may contain a significant causal component; although for women, there is less support for this conclusion. However, female employment status, as recorded in the census, is more complex than for men and may have served to underestimate any mortality effect of unemployment. Future work should examine this issue further. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.
Gateway Effects: Why the Cited Evidence Does Not Support Their Existence for Low-Risk Tobacco Products (and What Evidence Would)

PubMed Central

Phillips, Carl V.

2015-01-01

It is often claimed that low-risk drugs still create harm because of “gateway effects”, in which they cause the use of a high-risk alternative. Such claims are popular among opponents of tobacco harm reduction, claiming that low-risk tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco) cause people to start smoking, sometimes backed by empirical studies that ostensibly support the claim. However, these studies consistently ignore the obvious alternative causal pathways, particularly that observed associations might represent causation in the opposite direction (smoking causes people to seek low-risk alternatives) or confounding (the same individual characteristics increase the chance of using any tobacco product). Due to these complications, any useful analysis must deal with simultaneity and confounding by common cause. In practice, existing analyses seem almost as if they were designed to provide teaching examples about drawing simplistic and unsupported causal conclusions from observed associations. The present analysis examines what evidence and research strategies would be needed to empirically detect such a gateway effect, if there were one, explaining key methodological concepts including causation and confounding, examining the logic of the claim, identifying potentially useful data, and debunking common fallacies on both sides of the argument, as well as presenting an extended example of proper empirical testing. The analysis demonstrates that none of the empirical studies to date that are purported to show a gateway effect from tobacco harm reduction products actually does so. The observations and approaches can be generalized to other cases where observed association of individual characteristics in cross-sectional data could result from any of several causal relationships. PMID:26006122
When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

PubMed

Verbeek, Jos

2012-06-01

Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely.
When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely. PMID:22993715
New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of “signed path coefficient Granger causality,” a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an “excitatory” or “inhibitory” influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation. PMID:27833547
Experimental Design and Some Threats to Experimental Validity: A Primer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skidmore, Susan

2008-01-01

Experimental designs are distinguished as the best method to respond to questions involving causality. The purpose of the present paper is to explicate the logic of experimental design and why it is so vital to questions that demand causal conclusions. In addition, types of internal and external validity threats are discussed. To emphasize the…
Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

PubMed

Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.
Causal inference in public health.

PubMed

Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

2013-01-01

Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.
Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science.

PubMed

Lloyd, Elisabeth A

2015-02-01

I propose a distinct type of robustness, which I suggest can support a confirmatory role in scientific reasoning, contrary to the usual philosophical claims. In model robustness, repeated production of the empirically successful model prediction or retrodiction against a background of independently-supported and varying model constructions, within a group of models containing a shared causal factor, may suggest how confident we can be in the causal factor and predictions/retrodictions, especially once supported by a variety of evidence framework. I present climate models of greenhouse gas global warming of the 20th Century as an example, and emphasize climate scientists' discussions of robust models and causal aspects. The account is intended as applicable to a broad array of sciences that use complex modeling techniques. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic inequality in health in the British household panel: Tests of the social causation, health selection and the indirect selection hypothesis using dynamic fixed effects panel models.

PubMed

Foverskov, Else; Holm, Anders

2016-02-01

Despite social inequality in health being well documented, it is still debated which causal mechanism best explains the negative association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health. This paper is concerned with testing the explanatory power of three widely proposed causal explanations for social inequality in health in adulthood: the social causation hypothesis (SEP determines health), the health selection hypothesis (health determines SEP) and the indirect selection hypothesis (no causal relationship). We employ dynamic data of respondents aged 30 to 60 from the last nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey. Household income and location on the Cambridge Scale is included as measures of different dimensions of SEP and health is measured as a latent factor score. The causal hypotheses are tested using a time-based Granger approach by estimating dynamic fixed effects panel regression models following the method suggested by Anderson and Hsiao. We propose using this method to estimate the associations over time since it allows one to control for all unobserved time-invariant factors and hence lower the chances of biased estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed no proof of the social causation hypothesis over a one to five year period and limited support for the health selection hypothesis was seen only for men in relation to HH income. These findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analysis. We conclude that the indirect selection hypothesis may be the most important in explaining social inequality in health in adulthood, indicating that the well-known cross-sectional correlations between health and SEP in adulthood seem not to be driven by a causal relationship, but instead by dynamics and influences in place before the respondents turn 30 years old that affect both their health and SEP onwards. The conclusion is limited in that we do not consider the effect of specific diseases and causal relationships in adulthood may be present over a longer timespan than 5 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

PubMed Central

Weyland, Patricia G.; Grant, William B.; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-01-01

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor. PMID:25184368
Autoimmune chronic spontaneous urticaria: What we know and what we do not know.

PubMed

Kolkhir, Pavel; Church, Martin K; Weller, Karsten; Metz, Martin; Schmetzer, Oliver; Maurer, Marcus

2017-06-01

Chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) is a mast cell-driven skin disease characterized by the recurrence of transient wheals, angioedema, or both for more than 6 weeks. Autoimmunity is thought to be one of the most frequent causes of CSU. Type I and II autoimmunity (ie, IgE to autoallergens and IgG autoantibodies to IgE or its receptor, respectively) have been implicated in the etiology and pathogenesis of CSU. We analyzed the relevant literature and assessed the existing evidence in support of a role for type I and II autoimmunity in CSU with the help of Hill's criteria of causality. For each of these criteria (ie, strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and analogy), we categorized the strength of evidence as "insufficient," "low," "moderate," or "high" and then assigned levels of causality for type I and II autoimmunity in patients with CSU from level 1 (causal relationship) to level 5 (causality not likely). Based on the evidence in support of Hill's criteria, type I autoimmunity in patients with CSU has level 3 causality (causal relationship suggested), and type II autoimmunity has level 2 causality (causal relationship likely). There are still many aspects of the pathologic mechanisms of CSU that need to be resolved, but it is becoming clear that there are at least 2 distinct pathways, type I and type II autoimmunity, that contribute to the pathogenesis of this complex disease. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Time-varying causality between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from US states.

PubMed

Tzeremes, Panayiotis

2018-02-01

This study is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth at a state level, for the 50 US states, through a time-varying causality approach using annual data over the periods 1960-2010. The time-varying causality test facilitates the better understanding of the causal relationship between the covariates owing to the fact that it might identify causalities when the time-constant hypothesis is rejected. Our findings indicate the existence of a time-varying causality at the state level. Specifically, the results probe eight bidirectional time-varying causalities between energy consumption and CO 2 emission, six cases of two-way time-varying causalities between economic growth and energy consumption, and five bidirectional time-varying causalities between economic growth and CO 2 emission. Moreover, we examine the traditional environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the states. Notably, our results do not endorse the validity of the EKC, albeit the majority of states support an inverted N-shaped relationship. Lastly, we can identify multiple policy implications based on the empirical results.
Family Support, Self-Rated Health, and Psychological Distress

PubMed Central

Cano, Annmarie; Scaturo, Douglas J.; Sprafkin, Robert P.; Lantinga, Larry J.; Fiese, Barbara H.; Brand, Frank

2003-01-01

Background: Comprehensive health care is becoming an important issue; however, little is known about the complex relationships between perceived family support, self-rated health, and psychological distress in mixed middle-aged/older primary care patient samples. Method: In this cross-sectional and predominantly male sample of 137 patients attending their appointments at a primary care clinic in a Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, participants completed several questionnaires including the Family Adaptation, Partnership, Growth, Affection, and Resolve; the General Health Questionnaire-12; the Symptom Checklist-10; and the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD) screening questionnaire and interview. Data were collected in 1998. Eighteen percent of the participants were diagnosed with a mood disorder, and 15% were diagnosed with an anxiety disorder (PRIME-MD diagnoses). Results: Perceived family support and self-rated health were negatively associated with psychological symptoms and certain psychological disorders, while perceived family support and self-rated health were positively rated. In addition, the interaction between perceived family support and self-rated health was significant (p < .01) in relating to psychological symptoms such that psychological symptoms were most elevated in participants reporting dissatisfying family support combined with poor self-rated health. However, the cross-sectional nature of the study prevents causal conclusions from being made. Conclusions: Physicians and other health care professionals are encouraged to assess both the perceived family support and self-rated health in an effort to conceptualize their patients' problems in a more comprehensive manner. PMID:15154021
Causality links among renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Africa: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach.

PubMed

Attiaoui, Imed; Toumi, Hassen; Ammouri, Bilel; Gargouri, Ilhem

2017-05-01

This research examines the causality (For the remainder of the paper, the notion of causality refers to Granger causality.) links among renewable energy consumption (REC), CO 2 emissions (CE), non-renewable energy consumption (NREC), and economic growth (GDP) using an autoregressive distributed lag model based on the pooled mean group estimation (ARDL-PMG) and applying Granger causality tests for a panel consisting of 22 African countries for the period between 1990 and 2011. There is unidirectional and irreversible short-run causality from CE to GDP. The causal direction between CE and REC is unobservable over the short-term. Moreover, we find unidirectional, short-run causality from REC to GDP. When testing per pair of variables, there are short-run bidirectional causalities among REC, CE, and GDP. However, if we add CE to the variables REC and NREC, the causality to GDP is observable, and causality from the pair REC and NREC to economic growth is neutral. Likewise, if we add NREC to the variables GDP and REC, there is causality. There are bidirectional long-run causalities among REC, CE, and GDP, which supports the feedback assumption. Causality from GDP to REC is not strong for the panel. If we test per pair of variables, the strong causality from GDP and CE to REC is neutral. The long-run PMG estimates show that NREC and gross domestic product increase CE, whereas REC decreases CE.
Causal assessment of dietary acid load and bone disease: a systematic review & meta-analysis applying Hill's epidemiologic criteria for causality

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Modern diets have been suggested to increase systemic acid load and net acid excretion. In response, alkaline diets and products are marketed to avoid or counteract this acid, help the body regulate its pH to prevent and cure disease. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate causal relationships between dietary acid load and osteoporosis using Hill's criteria. Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis. We systematically searched published literature for randomized intervention trials, prospective cohort studies, and meta-analyses of the acid-ash or acid-base diet hypothesis with bone-related outcomes, in which the diet acid load was altered, or an alkaline diet or alkaline salts were provided, to healthy human adults. Cellular mechanism studies were also systematically examined. Results Fifty-five of 238 studies met the inclusion criteria: 22 randomized interventions, 2 meta-analyses, and 11 prospective observational studies of bone health outcomes including: urine calcium excretion, calcium balance or retention, changes of bone mineral density, or fractures, among healthy adults in which acid and/or alkaline intakes were manipulated or observed through foods or supplements; and 19 in vitro cell studies which examined the hypothesized mechanism. Urine calcium excretion rates were consistent with osteoporosis development; however calcium balance studies did not demonstrate loss of whole body calcium with higher net acid excretion. Several weaknesses regarding the acid-ash hypothesis were uncovered: No intervention studies provided direct evidence of osteoporosis progression (fragility fractures, or bone strength as measured using biopsy). The supporting prospective cohort studies were not controlled regarding important osteoporosis risk factors including: weight loss during follow-up, family history of osteoporosis, baseline bone mineral density, and estrogen status. No study revealed a biologic mechanism functioning at physiological pH. Finally, randomized studies did not provide evidence for an adverse role of phosphate, milk, and grain foods in osteoporosis. Conclusions A causal association between dietary acid load and osteoporotic bone disease is not supported by evidence and there is no evidence that an alkaline diet is protective of bone health. PMID:21529374
EBV and Autoimmunity.

PubMed

Ascherio, Alberto; Munger, Kassandra L

2015-01-01

Although a role of EBV in autoimmunity is biologically plausible and evidence of altered immune responses to EBV is abundant in several autoimmune diseases, inference on causality requires the determination that disease risk is higher in individuals infected with EBV than in those uninfected and that in the latter it increases following EBV infection. This determination has so far been possible only for multiple sclerosis (MS) and, to some extent, for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), whereas evidence is either lacking or not supportive for other autoimmune conditions. In this chapter, we present the main epidemiological findings that justify the conclusion that EBV is a component cause of MS and SLE and possible mechanisms underlying these effects.
Supporting shared hypothesis testing in the biomedical domain.

PubMed

Agibetov, Asan; Jiménez-Ruiz, Ernesto; Ondrésik, Marta; Solimando, Alessandro; Banerjee, Imon; Guerrini, Giovanna; Catalano, Chiara E; Oliveira, Joaquim M; Patanè, Giuseppe; Reis, Rui L; Spagnuolo, Michela

2018-02-08

Pathogenesis of inflammatory diseases can be tracked by studying the causality relationships among the factors contributing to its development. We could, for instance, hypothesize on the connections of the pathogenesis outcomes to the observed conditions. And to prove such causal hypotheses we would need to have the full understanding of the causal relationships, and we would have to provide all the necessary evidences to support our claims. In practice, however, we might not possess all the background knowledge on the causality relationships, and we might be unable to collect all the evidence to prove our hypotheses. In this work we propose a methodology for the translation of biological knowledge on causality relationships of biological processes and their effects on conditions to a computational framework for hypothesis testing. The methodology consists of two main points: hypothesis graph construction from the formalization of the background knowledge on causality relationships, and confidence measurement in a causality hypothesis as a normalized weighted path computation in the hypothesis graph. In this framework, we can simulate collection of evidences and assess confidence in a causality hypothesis by measuring it proportionally to the amount of available knowledge and collected evidences. We evaluate our methodology on a hypothesis graph that represents both contributing factors which may cause cartilage degradation and the factors which might be caused by the cartilage degradation during osteoarthritis. Hypothesis graph construction has proven to be robust to the addition of potentially contradictory information on the simultaneously positive and negative effects. The obtained confidence measures for the specific causality hypotheses have been validated by our domain experts, and, correspond closely to their subjective assessments of confidences in investigated hypotheses. Overall, our methodology for a shared hypothesis testing framework exhibits important properties that researchers will find useful in literature review for their experimental studies, planning and prioritizing evidence collection acquisition procedures, and testing their hypotheses with different depths of knowledge on causal dependencies of biological processes and their effects on the observed conditions.
Pathways From Bullying Perpetration, Victimization, and Bully Victimization to Suicidality Among School-Aged Youth: A Review of the Potential Mediators and a Call for Further Investigation.

PubMed

Hong, Jun Sung; Kral, Michael J; Sterzing, Paul R

2015-10-01

In the wake of several highly publicized adolescent suicides attributed to bullying victimization, national attention has been brought to bear on the profound public health problem of bullying. This article reviews the extant literature on the associations between bullying perpetration, victimization, and thoughts of or attempts at suicide and proposes five potential mediators, namely depression, anxiety, low self-esteem, loneliness, and hopelessness, that may explain this relationship. Numerous studies have found empirical support for the interrelations between internalizing behaviors and both bullying perpetration and victimization and suicide. We find that further longitudinal research needs to be conducted to more conclusively determine the role and causal ordering these various psychosocial factors may play in bullying perpetration, victimization, and suicide. Although the research literature implies causal directions among all these potential mediators, untangling the unique influence of bullying perpetration, victimization, and bully victimization on suicide and its mechanisms of action has major research and practice implications. © The Author(s) 2014.
Zika Virus Infection as a Cause of Congenital Brain Abnormalities and Guillain–Barré Syndrome: Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Reveiz, Ludovic; Oladapo, Olufemi T.; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Haefliger, Anina

2017-01-01

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) stated in March 2016 that there was scientific consensus that the mosquito-borne Zika virus was a cause of the neurological disorder Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS) and of microcephaly and other congenital brain abnormalities based on rapid evidence assessments. Decisions about causality require systematic assessment to guide public health actions. The objectives of this study were to update and reassess the evidence for causality through a rapid and systematic review about links between Zika virus infection and (a) congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, in the foetuses and offspring of pregnant women and (b) GBS in any population, and to describe the process and outcomes of an expert assessment of the evidence about causality. Methods and Findings The study had three linked components. First, in February 2016, we developed a causality framework that defined questions about the relationship between Zika virus infection and each of the two clinical outcomes in ten dimensions: temporality, biological plausibility, strength of association, alternative explanations, cessation, dose–response relationship, animal experiments, analogy, specificity, and consistency. Second, we did a systematic review (protocol number CRD42016036693). We searched multiple online sources up to May 30, 2016 to find studies that directly addressed either outcome and any causality dimension, used methods to expedite study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment, and summarised evidence descriptively. Third, WHO convened a multidisciplinary panel of experts who assessed the review findings and reached consensus statements to update the WHO position on causality. We found 1,091 unique items up to May 30, 2016. For congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, we included 72 items; for eight of ten causality dimensions (all except dose–response relationship and specificity), we found that more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association with Zika virus infection. For GBS, we included 36 items, of which more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association in seven of ten dimensions (all except dose–response relationship, specificity, and animal experimental evidence). Articles identified nonsystematically from May 30 to July 29, 2016 strengthened the review findings. The expert panel concluded that (a) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and clusters of microcephaly is that Zika virus infection during pregnancy is a cause of congenital brain abnormalities including microcephaly, and (b) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and GBS is that Zika virus infection is a trigger of GBS. The expert panel recognised that Zika virus alone may not be sufficient to cause either congenital brain abnormalities or GBS but agreed that the evidence was sufficient to recommend increased public health measures. Weaknesses are the limited assessment of the role of dengue virus and other possible cofactors, the small number of comparative epidemiological studies, and the difficulty in keeping the review up to date with the pace of publication of new research. Conclusions Rapid and systematic reviews with frequent updating and open dissemination are now needed both for appraisal of the evidence about Zika virus infection and for the next public health threats that will emerge. This systematic review found sufficient evidence to say that Zika virus is a cause of congenital abnormalities and is a trigger of GBS. PMID:28045901
Does partial Granger causality really eliminate the influence of exogenous inputs and latent variables?

PubMed

Roelstraete, Bjorn; Rosseel, Yves

2012-04-30

Partial Granger causality was introduced by Guo et al. (2008) who showed that it could better eliminate the influence of latent variables and exogenous inputs than conditional G-causality. In the recent literature we can find some reviews and applications of this type of Granger causality (e.g. Smith et al., 2011; Bressler and Seth, 2010; Barrett et al., 2010). These articles apparently do not take into account a serious flaw in the original work on partial G-causality, being the negative F values that were reported and even proven to be plausible. In our opinion, this undermines the credibility of the obtained results and thus the validity of the approach. Our study is aimed to further validate partial G-causality and to find an answer why negative partial Granger causality estimates were reported. Time series were simulated from the same toy model as used in the original paper and partial and conditional causal measures were compared in the presence of confounding variables. Inference was done parametrically and using non-parametric block bootstrapping. We counter the proof that partial Granger F values can be negative, but the main conclusion of the original article remains. In the presence of unknown latent and exogenous influences, it appears that partial G-causality will better eliminate their influence than conditional G-causality, at least when non-parametric inference is used. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Causal-explanatory pluralism: How intentions, functions, and mechanisms influence causal ascriptions.

PubMed

Lombrozo, Tania

2010-12-01

Both philosophers and psychologists have argued for the existence of distinct kinds of explanations, including teleological explanations that cite functions or goals, and mechanistic explanations that cite causal mechanisms. Theories of causation, in contrast, have generally been unitary, with dominant theories focusing either on counterfactual dependence or on physical connections. This paper argues that both approaches to causation are psychologically real, with different modes of explanation promoting judgments more or less consistent with each approach. Two sets of experiments isolate the contributions of counterfactual dependence and physical connections in causal ascriptions involving events with people, artifacts, or biological traits, and manipulate whether the events are construed teleologically or mechanistically. The findings suggest that when events are construed teleologically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to counterfactual dependence and relatively insensitive to the presence of physical connections, but when events are construed mechanistically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to both counterfactual dependence and physical connections. The conclusion introduces an account of causation, an "exportable dependence theory," that provides a way to understand the contributions of physical connections and teleology in terms of the functions of causal ascriptions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Problem formulation, metrics, open government, and on-line collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, C. R.; Schofield, K.; Young, S.; Shaw, D.

2010-12-01

Problem formulation leading to effective environmental management, including synthesis and application of science by government agencies, may benefit from collaborative on-line environments. This is illustrated by two interconnected projects: 1) literature-based evidence tools that support causal assessment and problem formulation, and 2) development of output, outcome, and sustainability metrics for tracking environmental conditions. Specifically, peer-production mechanisms allow for global contribution to science-based causal evidence databases, and subsequent crowd-sourced development of causal networks supported by that evidence. In turn, science-based causal networks may inform problem formulation and selection of metrics or indicators to track environmental condition (or problem status). Selecting and developing metrics in a collaborative on-line environment may improve stakeholder buy-in, the explicit relevance of metrics to planning, and the ability to approach problem apportionment or accountability, and to define success or sustainability. Challenges include contribution governance, data-sharing incentives, linking on-line interfaces to data service providers, and the intersection of environmental science and social science. Degree of framework access and confidentiality may vary by group and/or individual, but may ultimately be geared at demonstrating connections between science and decision making and supporting a culture of open government, by fostering transparency, public engagement, and collaboration.
"I'm Happy with My Mommy": Low-Income Preschoolers' Causal Attributions for Emotions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curenton, Stephanie M.; Wilson, Melvin N.

2003-01-01

This study examined low-income African American and European American preschoolers' socioemotional causal attributions. Results indicate that younger preschoolers, particularly young African Americans, may need help articulating emotions. Adults can support children's emotional reasoning through scaffolding. (Author)
Hyperuricemia, Acute and Chronic Kidney Disease, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease: Report of a Scientific Workshop Organized by the National Kidney Foundation.

PubMed

Johnson, Richard J; Bakris, George L; Borghi, Claudio; Chonchol, Michel B; Feldman, David; Lanaspa, Miguel A; Merriman, Tony R; Moe, Orson W; Mount, David B; Sanchez Lozada, Laura Gabriella; Stahl, Eli; Weiner, Daniel E; Chertow, Glenn M

2018-06-01

Urate is a cause of gout, kidney stones, and acute kidney injury from tumor lysis syndrome, but its relationship to kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes remains controversial. A scientific workshop organized by the National Kidney Foundation was held in September 2016 to review current evidence. Cell culture studies and animal models suggest that elevated serum urate concentrations can contribute to kidney disease, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome. Epidemiologic evidence also supports elevated serum urate concentrations as a risk factor for the development of kidney disease, hypertension, and diabetes, but differences in methodologies and inpacts on serum urate concentrations by even subtle changes in kidney function render conclusions uncertain. Mendelian randomization studies generally do not support a causal role of serum urate in kidney disease, hypertension, or diabetes, although interpretation is complicated by nonhomogeneous populations, a failure to consider environmental interactions, and a lack of understanding of how the genetic polymorphisms affect biological mechanisms related to urate. Although several small clinical trials suggest benefits of urate-lowering therapies on kidney function, blood pressure, and insulin resistance, others have been negative, with many trials having design limitations and insufficient power. Thus, whether uric acid has a causal role in kidney and cardiovascular diseases requires further study. Copyright © 2018 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fermi GBM Observations of Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A.; Briggs, M. S.; Connaughton, V.; Fishman, G. J.; Bhat, P. N.; Paciesas, W. S.; Preece, R.; Kippen, R. M.; vonKienlin, A.; Dwyer, J. R.;

2010-01-01

This slide presentation explores the relationship between Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes (TGF) and lightning. Using data from the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), and the gamma ray observations from Fermi's Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), the study reviews any causal relationship between TGFs and lightning. The conclusion of the study is that the TGF and lightning are simultaneous with out a causal relationship.

Thinking or feeling? An exploratory study of maternal scaffolding, child mental state talk, and emotion understanding in language-impaired and typically developing school-aged children.

PubMed

Yuill, Nicola; Little, Sarah

2018-06-01

Mother-child mental state talk (MST) supports children's developing social-emotional understanding. In typically developing (TD) children, family conversations about emotion, cognition, and causes have been linked to children's emotion understanding. Specific language impairment (SLI) may compromise developing emotion understanding and adjustment. We investigated emotion understanding in children with SLI and TD, in relation to mother-child conversation. Specifically, is cognitive, emotion, or causal MST more important for child emotion understanding and how might maternal scaffolding support this? Nine 5- to 9-year-old children with SLI and nine age-matched typically developing (TD) children, and their mothers. We assessed children's language, emotion understanding and reported behavioural adjustment. Mother-child conversations were coded for MST, including emotion, cognition, and causal talk, and for scaffolding of causal talk. Children with SLI scored lower than TD children on emotion understanding and adjustment. Mothers in each group provided similar amounts of cognitive, emotion, and causal talk, but SLI children used proportionally less cognitive and causal talk than TD children did, and more such child talk predicted better child emotion understanding. Child emotion talk did not differ between groups and did not predict emotion understanding. Both groups participated in maternal-scaffolded causal talk, but causal talk about emotion was more frequent in TD children, and such talk predicted higher emotion understanding. Cognitive and causal language scaffolded by mothers provides tools for articulating increasingly complex ideas about emotion, predicting children's emotion understanding. Our study provides a robust method for studying scaffolding processes for understanding causes of emotion. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.
Development and Inter-Rater Reliability of the Liverpool Adverse Drug Reaction Causality Assessment Tool

PubMed Central

Gallagher, Ruairi M.; Kirkham, Jamie J.; Mason, Jennifer R.; Bird, Kim A.; Williamson, Paula R.; Nunn, Anthony J.; Turner, Mark A.; Smyth, Rosalind L.; Pirmohamed, Munir

2011-01-01

Aim To develop and test a new adverse drug reaction (ADR) causality assessment tool (CAT). Methods A comparison between seven assessors of a new CAT, formulated by an expert focus group, compared with the Naranjo CAT in 80 cases from a prospective observational study and 37 published ADR case reports (819 causality assessments in total). Main Outcome Measures Utilisation of causality categories, measure of disagreements, inter-rater reliability (IRR). Results The Liverpool ADR CAT, using 40 cases from an observational study, showed causality categories of 1 unlikely, 62 possible, 92 probable and 125 definite (1, 62, 92, 125) and ‘moderate’ IRR (kappa 0.48), compared to Naranjo (0, 100, 172, 8) with ‘moderate’ IRR (kappa 0.45). In a further 40 cases, the Liverpool tool (0, 66, 81, 133) showed ‘good’ IRR (kappa 0.6) while Naranjo (1, 90, 185, 4) remained ‘moderate’. Conclusion The Liverpool tool assigns the full range of causality categories and shows good IRR. Further assessment by different investigators in different settings is needed to fully assess the utility of this tool. PMID:22194808
Effects of atrazine on fish, amphibians, and aquatic reptiles: a critical review.

PubMed

Solomon, Keith R; Carr, James A; Du Preez, Louis H; Giesy, John P; Kendall, Ronald J; Smith, Ernest E; Van Der Kraak, Glen J

2008-01-01

The herbicide atrazine is widely used in agriculture for the production of corn and other crops. Because of its physical and chemical properties, atrazine is found in small concentrations in surface waters--habitats for some species. A number of reports on the effects of atrazine on aquatic vertebrates, mostly amphibians, have been published, yet there is inconsistency in the effects reported, and inconsistency between studies in different laboratories. We have brought the results and conclusions of all of the relevant laboratory and field studies together in this critical review and assessed causality using procedures for the identification of causative agents of disease and ecoepidemiology derived from Koch's postulates and the Bradford-Hill guidelines. Based on a weight of evidence analysis of all of the data, the central theory that environmentally relevant concentrations of atrazine affect reproduction and/or reproductive development in fish, amphibians, and reptiles is not supported by the vast majority of observations. The same conclusions also hold for the supporting theories such as induction of aromatase, the enzyme that converts testosterone to estradiol. For other responses, such as immune function, stress endocrinology, parasitism, or population-level effects, there are no indications of effects or there is such a paucity of good data that definitive conclusions cannot be made.

Association between Parkinson’s Disease and Cigarette Smoking, Rural Living, Well-Water Consumption, Farming and Pesticide Use: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Breckenridge, Charles B.; Berry, Colin; Chang, Ellen T.; Sielken, Robert L.; Mandel, Jack S.

2016-01-01

Objective Bradford Hill’s viewpoints were used to conduct a weight-of-the-evidence assessment of the association between Parkinson’s disease (PD) and rural living, farming and pesticide use. The results were compared with an assessment based upon meta-analysis. For comparison, we also evaluated the association between PD and cigarette smoking as a “positive control” because a strong inverse association has been described consistently in the literature. Methods PubMed was searched systematically to identify all published epidemiological studies that evaluated associations between Parkinson’s disease (PD) and cigarette smoking, rural living, well-water consumption, farming and the use of pesticides, herbicides, insecticides, fungicides or paraquat. Studies were categorized into two study quality groups (Tier 1 or Tier 2); data were abstracted and a forest plot of relative risks (RRs) was developed for each risk factor. In addition, when available, RRs were tabulated for more highly exposed individuals compared with the unexposed. Summary RRs for each risk factor were calculated by meta-analysis of Tier 1, Tier 2 and all studies combined, with sensitivity analyses stratified by other study characteristics. Indices of between-study heterogeneity and evidence of reporting bias were assessed. Bradford Hill’s viewpoints were used to determine if a causal relationship between PD and each risk factor was supported by the weight of the evidence. Findings There was a consistent inverse (negative) association between current cigarette smoking and PD risk. In contrast, associations between PD and rural living, well-water consumption, farming and the use of pesticides, herbicides, insecticides, fungicides or paraquat were less consistent when assessed quantitatively or qualitatively. Conclusion The weight of the evidence and meta-analysis support the conclusion that there is a causal relationship between PD risk and cigarette smoking, or some unknown factor correlated with cigarette smoking. There may be risk factors associated with rural living, farming, pesticide use or well-water consumption that are causally related to PD, but the studies to date have not identified such factors. To overcome the limitations of research in this area, future studies will have to better characterize the onset of PD and its relationship to rural living, farming and exposure to pesticides. PMID:27055126
Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

PubMed Central

Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

2014-01-01

Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given. PMID:25505432
DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION INFORMATION SYSTEM (CADDIS) 2001-2004

EPA Science Inventory

The Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) is a web-based system that provides technical support for states, tribes and other users of the Office of Water's Stressor Identification Guidance. The Stressor Identific...
THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION INFORMATION SYSTEM (CADDIS) - 2007 UPDATE

EPA Science Inventory

CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based ...
Pride and Prejudice and Causal Indicators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Nick; Chamberlain, Laura

2016-01-01

Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas' (2016) paper in "Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives" (hereafter referred to as ARM2016) is an important and timely piece of scholarship, in that it provides strong analytic support to the growing theoretical literature that questions the underlying ideas behind causal and…
Imputation of adverse drug reactions: Causality assessment in hospitals

PubMed Central

Mastroianni, Patricia de Carvalho

2017-01-01

Background & objectives Different algorithms have been developed to standardize the causality assessment of adverse drug reactions (ADR). Although most share common characteristics, the results of the causality assessment are variable depending on the algorithm used. Therefore, using 10 different algorithms, the study aimed to compare inter-rater and multi-rater agreement for ADR causality assessment and identify the most consistent to hospitals. Methods Using ten causality algorithms, four judges independently assessed the first 44 cases of ADRs reported during the first year of implementation of a risk management service in a medium complexity hospital in the state of Sao Paulo (Brazil). Owing to variations in the terminology used for causality, the equivalent imputation terms were grouped into four categories: definite, probable, possible and unlikely. Inter-rater and multi-rater agreement analysis was performed by calculating the Cohen´s and Light´s kappa coefficients, respectively. Results None of the algorithms showed 100% reproducibility in the causal imputation. Fair inter-rater and multi-rater agreement was found. Emanuele (1984) and WHO-UMC (2010) algorithms showed a fair rate of agreement between the judges (k = 0.36). Interpretation & conclusions Although the ADR causality assessment algorithms were poorly reproducible, our data suggest that WHO-UMC algorithm is the most consistent for imputation in hospitals, since it allows evaluating the quality of the report. However, to improve the ability of assessing the causality using algorithms, it is necessary to include criteria for the evaluation of drug-related problems, which may be related to confounding variables that underestimate the causal association. PMID:28166274
The Causal Meaning of Genomic Predictors and How It Affects Construction and Comparison of Genome-Enabled Selection Models

PubMed Central

Valente, Bruno D.; Morota, Gota; Peñagaricano, Francisco; Gianola, Daniel; Weigel, Kent; Rosa, Guilherme J. M.

2015-01-01

The term “effect” in additive genetic effect suggests a causal meaning. However, inferences of such quantities for selection purposes are typically viewed and conducted as a prediction task. Predictive ability as tested by cross-validation is currently the most acceptable criterion for comparing models and evaluating new methodologies. Nevertheless, it does not directly indicate if predictors reflect causal effects. Such evaluations would require causal inference methods that are not typical in genomic prediction for selection. This suggests that the usual approach to infer genetic effects contradicts the label of the quantity inferred. Here we investigate if genomic predictors for selection should be treated as standard predictors or if they must reflect a causal effect to be useful, requiring causal inference methods. Conducting the analysis as a prediction or as a causal inference task affects, for example, how covariates of the regression model are chosen, which may heavily affect the magnitude of genomic predictors and therefore selection decisions. We demonstrate that selection requires learning causal genetic effects. However, genomic predictors from some models might capture noncausal signal, providing good predictive ability but poorly representing true genetic effects. Simulated examples are used to show that aiming for predictive ability may lead to poor modeling decisions, while causal inference approaches may guide the construction of regression models that better infer the target genetic effect even when they underperform in cross-validation tests. In conclusion, genomic selection models should be constructed to aim primarily for identifiability of causal genetic effects, not for predictive ability. PMID:25908318
Causality and headache triggers

PubMed Central

Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

2013-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872
Drug and herb induced liver injury: Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences scale for causality assessment

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Wolff, Albrecht; Frenzel, Christian; Schwarzenboeck, Alexander; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel

2014-01-01

Causality assessment of suspected drug induced liver injury (DILI) and herb induced liver injury (HILI) is hampered by the lack of a standardized approach to be used by attending physicians and at various subsequent evaluating levels. The aim of this review was to analyze the suitability of the liver specific Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale as a standard tool for causality assessment in DILI and HILI cases. PubMed database was searched for the following terms: drug induced liver injury; herb induced liver injury; DILI causality assessment; and HILI causality assessment. The strength of the CIOMS lies in its potential as a standardized scale for DILI and HILI causality assessment. Other advantages include its liver specificity and its validation for hepatotoxicity with excellent sensitivity, specificity and predictive validity, based on cases with a positive reexposure test. This scale allows prospective collection of all relevant data required for a valid causality assessment. It does not require expert knowledge in hepatotoxicity and its results may subsequently be refined. Weaknesses of the CIOMS scale include the limited exclusion of alternative causes and qualitatively graded risk factors. In conclusion, CIOMS appears to be suitable as a standard scale for attending physicians, regulatory agencies, expert panels and other scientists to provide a standardized, reproducible causality assessment in suspected DILI and HILI cases, applicable primarily at all assessing levels involved. PMID:24653791
How to interpret cognitive training studies: A reply to Lindskog & Winman

PubMed Central

Park, Joonkoo; Brannon, Elizabeth M.

2017-01-01

In our previous studies, we demonstrated that repeated training on an approximate arithmetic task selectively improves symbolic arithmetic performance (Park & Brannon, 2013, 2014). We proposed that mental manipulation of quantity is the common cognitive component between approximate arithmetic and symbolic arithmetic, driving the causal relationship between the two. In a commentary to our work, Lindskog and Winman argue that there is no evidence of performance improvement during approximate arithmetic training and that this challenges the proposed causal relationship between approximate arithmetic and symbolic arithmetic. Here, we argue that causality in cognitive training experiments is interpreted from the selectivity of transfer effects and does not hinge upon improved performance in the training task. This is because changes in the unobservable cognitive elements underlying the transfer effect may not be observable from performance measures in the training task. We also question the validity of Lindskog and Winman’s simulation approach for testing for a training effect, given that simulations require a valid and sufficient model of a decision process, which is often difficult to achieve. Finally we provide an empirical approach to testing the training effects in adaptive training. Our analysis reveals new evidence that approximate arithmetic performance improved over the course of training in Park and Brannon (2014). We maintain that our data supports the conclusion that approximate arithmetic training leads to improvement in symbolic arithmetic driven by the common cognitive component of mental quantity manipulation. PMID:26972469
Cross-lagged relations between mentoring received from supervisors and employee OCBs: Disentangling causal direction and identifying boundary conditions.

PubMed

Eby, Lillian T; Butts, Marcus M; Hoffman, Brian J; Sauer, Julia B

2015-07-01

Although mentoring has documented relationships with employee attitudes and outcomes of interest to organizations, neither the causal direction nor boundary conditions of the relationship between mentoring and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) has been fully explored. On the basis of Social Learning Theory (SLT; Bandura, 1977, 1986), we predicted that mentoring received by supervisors would causally precede OCBs, rather than employee OCBs resulting in the receipt of more mentoring from supervisors. Results from cross-lagged data collected at 2 points in time from 190 intact supervisor-employee dyads supported our predictions; however, only for OCBs directed at individuals (OCB-Is) and not for OCBs directed at the organization (OCB-Os). Further supporting our theoretical rationale for expecting mentoring to precede OCBs, we found that coworker support operates as a substitute for mentoring in predicting OCB-Is. By contrast, no moderating effects were found for perceived organizational support. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical implications for mentoring and OCB research, as well as practical suggestions for enhancing employee citizenship behaviors. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
The Association of Cigarette Smoking With Depression and Anxiety: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Taylor, Amy E.; Grabski, Meryem; Munafò, Marcus R.

2017-01-01

Background: Many studies report a positive association between smoking and mental illness. However, the literature remains mixed regarding the direction of this association. We therefore conducted a systematic review evaluating the association of smoking and depression and/or anxiety in longitudinal studies. Methods: Studies were identified by searching PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science and were included if they: (1) used human participants, (2) were longitudinal, (3) reported primary data, (4) had smoking as an exposure and depression and/or anxiety as an outcome, or (5) had depression and/or anxiety as the exposure and smoking as an outcome. Results: Outcomes from 148 studies were categorized into: smoking onset, smoking status, smoking heaviness, tobacco dependence, and smoking trajectory. The results for each category varied substantially, with evidence for positive associations in both directions (smoking to later mental health and mental health to later smoking) as well as null findings. Overall, nearly half the studies reported that baseline depression/anxiety was associated with some type of later smoking behavior, while over a third found evidence that a smoking exposure was associated with later depression/anxiety. However, there were few studies directly supporting a bidirectional model of smoking and anxiety, and very few studies reporting null results. Conclusions: The literature on the prospective association between smoking and depression and anxiety is inconsistent in terms of the direction of association most strongly supported. This suggests the need for future studies that employ different methodologies, such as Mendelian randomization (MR), which will allow us to draw stronger causal inferences. Implications: We systematically reviewed longitudinal studies on the association of different aspects of smoking behavior with depression and anxiety. The results varied considerably, with evidence for smoking both associated with subsequent depression and anxiety, and vice versa. Few studies supported a bidirectional relationship, or reported null results, and no clear patterns by gender, ethnicity, clinical status, length to follow-up, or diagnostic test. Suggesting that despite advantages of longitudinal studies, they cannot alone provide strong evidence of causality. Therefore, future studies investigating this association should employ different methods allowing for stronger causal inferences to be made, such as MR. PMID:27199385
Agents and Patients in Physical Settings: Linguistic Cues Affect the Assignment of Causality in German and Tongan

PubMed Central

Bender, Andrea; Beller, Sieghard

2017-01-01

Linguistic cues may be considered a potent tool for focusing attention on causes or effects. In this paper, we explore how different cues affect causal assignments in German and Tongan. From a larger screening study, two parts are reported here: Part 1 dealt with syntactic variations, including word order (agent vs. patient in first/subject position) and case marking (e.g., as ergative vs. non-ergative in Tongan) depending on verb type (transitive vs. intransitive). For two physical settings (wood floating on water and a man breaking a glass), participants assigned causality to the two entities involved. In the floating setting, speakers of the two languages were sensitive to syntactic variations, but differed in the entity regarded as causative. In the breaking setting, the human agent was uniformly regarded as causative. Part 2 dealt with implicit verb causality. Participants assigned causality to subject or object of 16 verbs presented in minimal social scenarios. In German, all verbs showed a subject (agent) focus; in Tongan, the focus depended on the verb; and for nine verbs, the focus differed across languages. In conclusion, we discuss the question of domain-specificity of causal cognition, the role of the ergative as causal marker, and more general differences between languages. PMID:28736538
Research on injury compensation and health outcomes: ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion.

PubMed

Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B; Nghiem, Hong S; Pobereskin, Louis

2012-11-01

This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims--a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The cradle of causal reasoning: newborns' preference for physical causality.

PubMed

Mascalzoni, Elena; Regolin, Lucia; Vallortigara, Giorgio; Simion, Francesca

2013-05-01

Perception of mechanical (i.e. physical) causality, in terms of a cause-effect relationship between two motion events, appears to be a powerful mechanism in our daily experience. In spite of a growing interest in the earliest causal representations, the role of experience in the origin of this sensitivity is still a matter of dispute. Here, we asked the question about the innate origin of causal perception, never tested before at birth. Three experiments were carried out to investigate sensitivity at birth to some visual spatiotemporal cues present in a launching event. Newborn babies, only a few hours old, showed that they significantly preferred a physical causality event (i.e. Michotte's Launching effect) when matched to a delay event (i.e. a delayed launching; Experiment 1) or to a non-causal event completely identical to the causal one except for the order of the displacements of the two objects involved which was swapped temporally (Experiment 3). This preference for the launching event, moreover, also depended on the continuity of the trajectory between the objects involved in the event (Experiment 2). These results support the hypothesis that the human system possesses an early available, possibly innate basic mechanism to compute causality, such a mechanism being sensitive to the additive effect of certain well-defined spatiotemporal cues present in the causal event independently of any prior visual experience. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
On the road toward formal reasoning: reasoning with factual causal and contrary-to-fact causal premises during early adolescence.

PubMed

Markovits, Henry

2014-12-01

Understanding the development of conditional (if-then) reasoning is critical for theoretical and educational reasons. Here we examined the hypothesis that there is a developmental transition between reasoning with true and contrary-to-fact (CF) causal conditionals. A total of 535 students between 11 and 14 years of age received priming conditions designed to encourage use of either a true or CF alternatives generation strategy and reasoning problems with true causal and CF causal premises (with counterbalanced order). Results show that priming had no effect on reasoning with true causal premises. By contrast, priming with CF alternatives significantly improved logical reasoning with CF premises. Analysis of the effect of order showed that reasoning with CF premises reduced logical responding among younger students but had no effect among older students. Results support the idea that there is a transition in the reasoning processes in this age range associated with the nature of the alternatives generation process required for logical reasoning with true and CF causal conditionals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Coal consumption and economic growth in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, H.Y.

2000-03-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the causality issue between coal consumption and economic growth for Taiwan. The co-integration and Granger's causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two economic series. Results of the co-integration and Granger's causality test based on 1954--1997 Taiwan data show a unidirectional causality from economic growth to coal consumption with no feedback effects. Their major finding supports the neutrality hypothesis of coal consumption with respect to economic growth. Further, the finding has practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning, as coal conservation is a feasiblemore » policy with no damaging repercussions on economic growth.« less
Introspective Reasoning Models for Multistrategy Case-Based and Explanation

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-03-10

symptoms and diseases to causal 30 principles about diseases and first-principle analysis grounded in basic science. Based on research in process...the symptoms of the failure to conclusion that the process which posts learning goals a causal explanation of the failure. Secondl,,. the learner...the vernacular, a "jones" is a drug habit accompanied the faucet for water. Therefore, the story can end with by withdrawal symptoms . The verb "to jones
Association of Body Mass Index with Depression, Anxiety and Suicide—An Instrumental Variable Analysis of the HUNT Study

PubMed Central

Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Carslake, David; Lund Nilsen, Tom Ivar; Linthorst, Astrid C. E.; Davey Smith, George; Gunnell, David; Romundstad, Pål Richard

2015-01-01

Objective While high body mass index is associated with an increased risk of depression and anxiety, cumulative evidence indicates that it is a protective factor for suicide. The associations from conventional observational studies of body mass index with mental health outcomes are likely to be influenced by reverse causality or confounding by ill-health. In the present study, we investigated the associations between offspring body mass index and parental anxiety, depression and suicide in order to avoid problems with reverse causality and confounding by ill-health. Methods We used data from 32,457 mother-offspring and 27,753 father-offspring pairs from the Norwegian HUNT-study. Anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and suicide death from national registers. Associations between offspring and own body mass index and symptoms of anxiety and depression and suicide mortality were estimated using logistic and Cox regression. Causal effect estimates were estimated with a two sample instrument variable approach using offspring body mass index as an instrument for parental body mass index. Results Both own and offspring body mass index were positively associated with depression, while the results did not indicate any substantial association between body mass index and anxiety. Although precision was low, suicide mortality was inversely associated with own body mass index and the results from the analysis using offspring body mass index supported these results. Adjusted odds ratios per standard deviation body mass index from the instrumental variable analysis were 1.22 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.43) for depression, 1.10 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.27) for anxiety, and the instrumental variable estimated hazard ratios for suicide was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.30, 1.63). Conclusion The present study’s results indicate that suicide mortality is inversely associated with body mass index. We also found support for a positive association between body mass index and depression, but not for anxiety. PMID:26167892
The effects of situational obstacles and social support on suicide- prevention gatekeeper behaviors.

PubMed

Moore, J Taylor; Cigularov, Konstantin P; Chen, Peter Y; Martinez, Jeremy M; Hindman, Jarrod

2011-01-01

Although the effectiveness of suicide-prevention gatekeeper-training programs in improving knowledge, attitudes, and referral practices has been documented, their effects do not seem to be lasting. This study investigated situational obstacles at work that prevent suicide-prevention gatekeepers from engaging in suicide-prevention behavior and the role of social support in modifying the relationship between situational obstacles and suicide-prevention behaviors. 193 gatekeepers completed an online survey to rate the obstacles they had experienced at work since completing a gatekeeper-training program and the support received from coworkers, supervisors, and the organization. Participants also reported the frequency of suicide-prevention behaviors performed. The results indicated that both situational obstacles and social support predicted the number of suicide-prevention behaviors performed, as expected. There was also a trend that support from supervisors and the organization may alleviate the adverse effect of situational obstacles on suicide-prevention behavior. The cross-sectional nature of the study does not allow for directional, causal conclusions to be drawn. By understanding the roles of situational obstacles faced by trained gatekeepers at their work and the support they receive from supervisors and organizations, appropriate strategies can be identified and applied to facilitate gatekeeper performance.

Longitudinal linkages between perceived social support and posttraumatic stress symptoms: sequential roles of social causation and social selection.

PubMed

Kaniasty, Krzysztof; Norris, Fran H

2008-06-01

The authors examined social causation and social selection explanations for the association between perceptions of social support and psychological distress. Data came from a sample of 557 victims of natural disaster in Mexico. Structural equation modeling analyses indicated that social causation (more social support leading to less posttraumatic stress disorder [PTSD]) explained the support-to-distress relationship in the earlier postdisaster phase, 6 to 12 months after the impact. Both causal mechanisms emerged as significant paths in the midpoint of the study (12 and 18 months). Only social selection (more PTSD leading to less social support) accounted for the support-to-distress relationship at 18 to 24 months after the event. Interpersonal and social dynamics of disasters may explain why these two contrasting causal mechanisms emerged over time.
Timing and Causality in the Generation of Learned Eyelid Responses

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Campusano, Raudel; Gruart, Agnès; Delgado-García, José M.

2011-01-01

The cerebellum-red nucleus-facial motoneuron (Mn) pathway has been reported as being involved in the proper timing of classically conditioned eyelid responses. This special type of associative learning serves as a model of event timing for studying the role of the cerebellum in dynamic motor control. Here, we have re-analyzed the firing activities of cerebellar posterior interpositus (IP) neurons and orbicularis oculi (OO) Mns in alert behaving cats during classical eyeblink conditioning, using a delay paradigm. The aim was to revisit the hypothesis that the IP neurons (IPns) can be considered a neuronal phase-modulating device supporting OO Mns firing with an emergent timing mechanism and an explicit correlation code during learned eyelid movements. Optimized experimental and computational tools allowed us to determine the different causal relationships (temporal order and correlation code) during and between trials. These intra- and inter-trial timing strategies expanding from sub-second range (millisecond timing) to longer-lasting ranges (interval timing) expanded the functional domain of cerebellar timing beyond motor control. Interestingly, the results supported the above-mentioned hypothesis. The causal inferences were influenced by the precise motor and pre-motor spike timing in the cause-effect interval, and, in addition, the timing of the learned responses depended on cerebellar–Mn network causality. Furthermore, the timing of CRs depended upon the probability of simulated causal conditions in the cause-effect interval and not the mere duration of the inter-stimulus interval. In this work, the close relation between timing and causality was verified. It could thus be concluded that the firing activities of IPns may be related more to the proper performance of ongoing CRs (i.e., the proper timing as a consequence of the pertinent causality) than to their generation and/or initiation. PMID:21941469
Beliefs About the Causal Structure of the Self-Concept Determine Which Changes Disrupt Personal Identity.

PubMed

Chen, Stephanie Y; Urminsky, Oleg; Bartels, Daniel M

2016-10-01

Personal identity is an important determinant of behavior, yet how people mentally represent their self-concepts and their concepts of other people is not well understood. In the current studies, we examined the age-old question of what makes people who they are. We propose a novel approach to identity that suggests that the answer lies in people's beliefs about how the features of identity (e.g., memories, moral qualities, personality traits) are causally related to each other. We examined the impact of the causal centrality of a feature, a key determinant of the extent to which a feature defines a concept, on judgments of identity continuity. We found support for this approach in three experiments using both measured and manipulated causal centrality. For judgments both of one's self and of others, we found that some features are perceived to be more causally central than others and that changes in such causally central features are believed to be more disruptive to identity.
Health and Wealth of Elderly Couples: Causality Tests Using Dynamic Panel Data Models*

PubMed Central

Michaud, Pierre-Carl; van Soest, Arthur

2010-01-01

A positive relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and health, the “health-wealth gradient”, is repeatedly found in many industrialized countries. This study analyzes competing explanations for this gradient: causal effects from health to wealth (health causation) and causal effects from wealth to health (wealth or social causation). Using six biennial waves of couples aged 51–61 in 1992 from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, we test for causality in panel data models incorporating unobserved heterogeneity and a lag structure supported by specification tests. In contrast to tests relying on models with only first order lags or without unobserved heterogeneity, these tests provide no evidence of causal wealth health effects. On the other hand, we find strong evidence of causal effects from both spouses’ health on household wealth. We also find an effect of the husband’s health on the wife’s mental health, but no other effects from one spouse’s health to health of the other spouse. PMID:18513809
Could Plasmodium vivax malaria trigger malnutrition? Revisiting the Bradford Hill criteria to assess a causal relationship between two neglected problems.

PubMed

Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; Alexandre, Márcia Araújo; Siqueira, André; Melo, Gisely; Romero, Gustavo Adolfo Sierra; d'Ávila, Efrem; Benzecry, Silvana Gomes; Leite, Heitor Pons; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães

2016-01-01

The benign characteristics formerly attributed to Plasmodium vivax infections have recently changed owing to the increasing number of reports of severe vivax malaria resulting in a broad spectrum of clinical complications, probably including undernutrition. Causal inference is a complex process, and arriving at a tentative inference of the causal or non-causal nature of an association is a subjective process limited by the existing evidence. Applying classical epidemiology principles, such as the Bradford Hill criteria, may help foster an understanding of causality and lead to appropriate interventions being proposed that may improve quality of life and decrease morbidity in neglected populations. Here, we examined these criteria in the context of the available data suggesting that vivax malaria may substantially contribute to childhood malnutrition. We found the data supported a role for P. vivax in the etiology of undernutrition in endemic areas. Thus, the application of modern causal inference tools, in future studies, may be useful in determining causation.
Using genetics to test the causal relationship of total adiposity and periodontitis: Mendelian randomization analyses in the Gene-Lifestyle Interactions and Dental Endpoints (GLIDE) Consortium

PubMed Central

Shungin, Dmitry; Cornelis, Marilyn C; Divaris, Kimon; Holtfreter, Birte; Shaffer, John R; Yu, Yau-Hua; Barros, Silvana P; Beck, James D; Biffar, Reiner; Boerwinkle, Eric A; Crout, Richard J.; Ganna, Andrea; Hallmans, Goran; Hindy, George; Hu, Frank B; Kraft, Peter; McNeil, Daniel W; Melander, Olle; Moss, Kevin L; North, Kari E; Orho-Melander, Marju; Pedersen, Nancy L; Ridker, Paul M; Rimm, Eric B; Rose, Lynda M; Rukh, Gull; Teumer, Alexander; Weyant, Robert J; Chasman, Daniel I; Joshipura, Kaumudi; Kocher, Thomas; Magnusson, Patrik KE; Marazita, Mary L; Nilsson, Peter; Offenbacher, Steve; Davey Smith, George; Lundberg, Pernilla; Palmer, Tom M; Timpson, Nicholas J; Johansson, Ingegerd; Franks, Paul W

2015-01-01

Background: The observational relationship between obesity and periodontitis is widely known, yet causal evidence is lacking. Our objective was to investigate causal associations between periodontitis and body mass index (BMI). Methods: We performed Mendelian randomization analyses with BMI-associated loci combined in a genetic risk score (GRS) as the instrument for BMI. All analyses were conducted within the Gene-Lifestyle Interactions and Dental Endpoints (GLIDE) Consortium in 13 studies from Europe and the USA, including 49 066 participants with clinically assessed (seven studies, 42.1% of participants) and self-reported (six studies, 57.9% of participants) periodontitis and genotype data (17 672/31 394 with/without periodontitis); 68 761 participants with BMI and genotype data; and 57 871 participants (18 881/38 990 with/without periodontitis) with data on BMI and periodontitis. Results: In the observational meta-analysis of all participants, the pooled crude observational odds ratio (OR) for periodontitis was 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.24] per standard deviation increase of BMI. Controlling for potential confounders attenuated this estimate (OR = 1.08; 95% CI:1.03, 1.12). For clinically assessed periodontitis, corresponding ORs were 1.25 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.42) and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.17), respectively. In the genetic association meta-analysis, the OR for periodontitis was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.03) per GRS unit (per one effect allele) in all participants and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.03) in participants with clinically assessed periodontitis. The instrumental variable meta-analysis of all participants yielded an OR of 1.05 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.38) per BMI standard deviation, and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.46) in participants with clinical data. Conclusions: Our study does not support total adiposity as a causal risk factor for periodontitis, as the point estimate is very close to the null in the causal inference analysis, with wide confidence intervals. PMID:26050256
Causal Modeling of Secondary Science Students' Intentions to Enroll in Physics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

1992-01-01

Reports a study using the causal modeling method to verify underlying causes of student interest in enrolling in physics as predicted by the theory of planned behavior. Families were identified as major referents in the social support system for physics enrollment. Course and extracurricular conflicts and fear of failure were primary beliefs…
Cognitive Development Masks Support for Attributional Style Models of Depression in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weitlauf, Amy S.; Cole, David A.

2012-01-01

Attributional style models of depression in adults (Abramson et al. 1989, 1978) have been adapted for use with children; however, most applications do not consider that children's understanding of causal relations may be qualitatively different from that of adults. If children's causal attributions depend on children's level of cognitive…
A Causal Modelling Approach to the Development of Theory-Based Behaviour Change Programmes for Trial Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardeman, Wendy; Sutton, Stephen; Griffin, Simon; Johnston, Marie; White, Anthony; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Kinmonth, Ann Louise

2005-01-01

Theory-based intervention programmes to support health-related behaviour change aim to increase health impact and improve understanding of mechanisms of behaviour change. However, the science of intervention development remains at an early stage. We present a causal modelling approach to developing complex interventions for evaluation in…
Intelligence and obesity: which way does the causal direction go?

PubMed

Kanazawa, Satoshi

2014-10-01

The negative association between intelligence and obesity has been well established, but the direction of causality is unclear. The present review surveys the recent studies on the topic with both cross-sectional and longitudinal data in an attempt to establish causality. Most studies in the area employ cross-sectional data and conclude (without empirical justification) that obesity causes intellectual impairment. The few studies that employ prospectively longitudinal data, however, uniformly conclude that lower intelligence leads to BMI gains and obesity. A close examination of three such studies, from three different nations (Sweden, New Zealand, and the UK), leaves little doubt that the causality runs from low intelligence to obesity. The conclusion in previous studies that obesity impairs cognitive function stems from improper interpretation of a negative association between intelligence and obesity from cross-sectional studies. Results from the analyses of high-quality, population-based, prospectively longitudinal data firmly establish that low intelligence increases the chances of obesity.
Functional clustering of time series gene expression data by Granger causality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A common approach for time series gene expression data analysis includes the clustering of genes with similar expression patterns throughout time. Clustered gene expression profiles point to the joint contribution of groups of genes to a particular cellular process. However, since genes belong to intricate networks, other features, besides comparable expression patterns, should provide additional information for the identification of functionally similar genes. Results In this study we perform gene clustering through the identification of Granger causality between and within sets of time series gene expression data. Granger causality is based on the idea that the cause of an event cannot come after its consequence. Conclusions This kind of analysis can be used as a complementary approach for functional clustering, wherein genes would be clustered not solely based on their expression similarity but on their topological proximity built according to the intensity of Granger causality among them. PMID:23107425
Conditional Disease Development extracted from Longitudinal Health Care Cohort Data using Layered Network Construction

PubMed Central

Kannan, Venkateshan; Swartz, Fredrik; Kiani, Narsis A.; Silberberg, Gilad; Tsipras, Giorgos; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Alexanderson, Kristina; Tegnèr, Jesper

2016-01-01

Health care data holds great promise to be used in clinical decision support systems. However, frequent near-synonymous diagnoses recorded separately, as well as the sheer magnitude and complexity of the disease data makes it challenging to extract non-trivial conclusions beyond confirmatory associations from such a web of interactions. Here we present a systematic methodology to derive statistically valid conditional development of diseases. To this end we utilize a cohort of 5,512,469 individuals followed over 13 years at inpatient care, including data on disability pension and cause of death. By introducing a causal information fraction measure and taking advantage of the composite structure in the ICD codes, we extract an effective directed lower dimensional network representation (100 nodes and 130 edges) of our cohort. Unpacking composite nodes into bipartite graphs retrieves, for example, that individuals with behavioral disorders are more likely to be followed by prescription drug poisoning episodes, whereas women with leiomyoma were more likely to subsequently experience endometriosis. The conditional disease development represent putative causal relations, indicating possible novel clinical relationships and pathophysiological associations that have not been explored yet. PMID:27211115
Conditional Disease Development extracted from Longitudinal Health Care Cohort Data using Layered Network Construction.

PubMed

Kannan, Venkateshan; Swartz, Fredrik; Kiani, Narsis A; Silberberg, Gilad; Tsipras, Giorgos; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Alexanderson, Kristina; Tegnèr, Jesper

2016-05-23

Health care data holds great promise to be used in clinical decision support systems. However, frequent near-synonymous diagnoses recorded separately, as well as the sheer magnitude and complexity of the disease data makes it challenging to extract non-trivial conclusions beyond confirmatory associations from such a web of interactions. Here we present a systematic methodology to derive statistically valid conditional development of diseases. To this end we utilize a cohort of 5,512,469 individuals followed over 13 years at inpatient care, including data on disability pension and cause of death. By introducing a causal information fraction measure and taking advantage of the composite structure in the ICD codes, we extract an effective directed lower dimensional network representation (100 nodes and 130 edges) of our cohort. Unpacking composite nodes into bipartite graphs retrieves, for example, that individuals with behavioral disorders are more likely to be followed by prescription drug poisoning episodes, whereas women with leiomyoma were more likely to subsequently experience endometriosis. The conditional disease development represent putative causal relations, indicating possible novel clinical relationships and pathophysiological associations that have not been explored yet.
Why are Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms Comorbid in Youth? A Multi-Wave, Longitudinal Examination of Competing Etiological Models

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joseph R.; Young, Jami, F.; Gibb, Brandon E.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Abela, John R. Z.

2014-01-01

Background The present study sought to clarify the development of comorbid emotional distress by comparing different explanations for how youth develop anxiety and depressive symptoms. Specifically, we introduced the diathesis-anxiety approach (whether cognitive vulnerabilities interact with anxiety symptoms), and compared it to a causal model (anxiety symptoms predicting depressive symptoms), and a correlated liabilities model (whether cognitive vulnerabilities interacted with stressors to predict both anxiety and depressive symptoms) to examine which model best explained the relation between depressive and anxiety symptoms in youth. Methods 678 3rd (n=208), 6th (n=245), and 9th (n=225) grade girls (n=380) and boys (n=298) completed self-report measures at baseline assessing cognitive vulnerabilities (rumination and self-criticism), stressors, depressive and anxiety symptoms. Every 3 months over the next 18 months, youth completed follow-up measures of symptoms and stressors. Results While limited support was found for a causal (p > .10) or correlated-liability model (p > .05) for comorbidity, findings did support a diathesis-anxiety approach for both self-criticism (t(2494) = 3.36, p < .001) and rumination (t(2505) = 2.40, p < .05). Limitations The present study’s findings are based on self-report measure and makes inferences concerning comorbidity with a community sample. Conclusions These results may help clarify past research concerning comorbidity by introducing a diathesis-anxiety approach as a viable model to understand which youth are most at-risk for developing comorbid emotional distress. PMID:24751303
Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2017-07-01

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.
The center for causal discovery of biomedical knowledge from big data

PubMed Central

Bahar, Ivet; Becich, Michael J; Benos, Panayiotis V; Berg, Jeremy; Espino, Jeremy U; Glymour, Clark; Jacobson, Rebecca Crowley; Kienholz, Michelle; Lee, Adrian V; Lu, Xinghua; Scheines, Richard

2015-01-01

The Big Data to Knowledge (BD2K) Center for Causal Discovery is developing and disseminating an integrated set of open source tools that support causal modeling and discovery of biomedical knowledge from large and complex biomedical datasets. The Center integrates teams of biomedical and data scientists focused on the refinement of existing and the development of new constraint-based and Bayesian algorithms based on causal Bayesian networks, the optimization of software for efficient operation in a supercomputing environment, and the testing of algorithms and software developed using real data from 3 representative driving biomedical projects: cancer driver mutations, lung disease, and the functional connectome of the human brain. Associated training activities provide both biomedical and data scientists with the knowledge and skills needed to apply and extend these tools. Collaborative activities with the BD2K Consortium further advance causal discovery tools and integrate tools and resources developed by other centers. PMID:26138794
Causality and Causal Inference in Social Work: Quantitative and Qualitative Perspectives

PubMed Central

Palinkas, Lawrence A.

2015-01-01

Achieving the goals of social work requires matching a specific solution to a specific problem. Understanding why the problem exists and why the solution should work requires a consideration of cause and effect. However, it is unclear whether it is desirable for social workers to identify cause and effect, whether it is possible for social workers to identify cause and effect, and, if so, what is the best means for doing so. These questions are central to determining the possibility of developing a science of social work and how we go about doing it. This article has four aims: (1) provide an overview of the nature of causality; (2) examine how causality is treated in social work research and practice; (3) highlight the role of quantitative and qualitative methods in the search for causality; and (4) demonstrate how both methods can be employed to support a “science” of social work. PMID:25821393
Supporting cognition in systems biology analysis: findings on users' processes and design implications.

PubMed

Mirel, Barbara

2009-02-13

Current usability studies of bioinformatics tools suggest that tools for exploratory analysis support some tasks related to finding relationships of interest but not the deep causal insights necessary for formulating plausible and credible hypotheses. To better understand design requirements for gaining these causal insights in systems biology analyses a longitudinal field study of 15 biomedical researchers was conducted. Researchers interacted with the same protein-protein interaction tools to discover possible disease mechanisms for further experimentation. Findings reveal patterns in scientists' exploratory and explanatory analysis and reveal that tools positively supported a number of well-structured query and analysis tasks. But for several of scientists' more complex, higher order ways of knowing and reasoning the tools did not offer adequate support. Results show that for a better fit with scientists' cognition for exploratory analysis systems biology tools need to better match scientists' processes for validating, for making a transition from classification to model-based reasoning, and for engaging in causal mental modelling. As the next great frontier in bioinformatics usability, tool designs for exploratory systems biology analysis need to move beyond the successes already achieved in supporting formulaic query and analysis tasks and now reduce current mismatches with several of scientists' higher order analytical practices. The implications of results for tool designs are discussed.
Genetic causal beliefs about obesity, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours in a middle-aged female cohort

PubMed Central

Knerr, Sarah; Bowen, Deborah J.; Beresford, Shirley A.A.; Wang, Catharine

2015-01-01

Objective Obesity is a heritable condition with well-established risk-reducing behaviours. Studies have shown that beliefs about the causes of obesity are associated with diet and exercise behaviour. Identifying mechanisms linking causal beliefs and behaviours is important for obesity prevention and control. Design Cross-sectional multi-level regression analyses of self-efficacy for weight control as a possible mediator of obesity attributions (diet, physical activity, genetic) and preventive behaviours in 487 non-Hispanic White women from South King County, Washington. Main Outcome Measures Self-reported daily fruit and vegetable intake and weekly leisure-time physical activity. Results Diet causal beliefs were positively associated with fruit and vegetable intake, with self-efficacy for weight control partially accounting for this association. Self-efficacy for weight control also indirectly linked physical activity attributions and physical activity behaviour. Relationships between genetic causal beliefs, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours differed by obesity status. Self-efficacy for weight control contributed to negative associations between genetic causal attributions and obesity-related behaviours in non-obese, but not obese, women. Conclusion Self-efficacy is an important construct to include in studies of genetic causal beliefs and behavioural self-regulation. Theoretical and longitudinal work is needed to clarify the causal nature of these relationships and other mediating and moderating factors. PMID:26542069
Fear of cancer recurrence and psychological well-being in women with breast cancer: The role of causal cancer attributions and optimism.

PubMed

Dumalaon-Canaria, J A; Prichard, I; Hutchinson, A D; Wilson, C

2018-01-01

This study aims to examine the association between cancer causal attributions, fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) and psychological well-being and the possible moderating effect of optimism among women with a previous diagnosis of breast cancer. Participants (N = 314) completed an online self-report assessment of causal attributions for their own breast cancer, FCR, psychological well-being and optimism. Simultaneous multiple regression analyses were conducted to explore the overall contribution of causal attributions to FCR and psychological well-being separately. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were also utilised to examine the potential moderating influence of dispositional optimism on the relationship between causal attributions and FCR and psychological well-being. Causal attributions of environmental exposures, family history and stress were significantly associated with higher FCR. The attribution of stress was also significantly associated with lower psychological well-being. Optimism did not moderate the relationship between causal attributions and FCR or well-being. The observed relationships between causal attributions for breast cancer and FCR and psychological well-being suggest that the inclusion of causal attributions in screening for FCR is potentially important. Health professionals may need to provide greater psychological support to women who attribute their cancer to non-modifiable causes and consequently continue to experience distress. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

InvestigationOrganizer: The Development and Testing of a Web-based Tool to Support Mishap Investigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carvalho, Robert F.; Williams, James; Keller, Richard; Sturken, Ian; Panontin, Tina

2004-01-01

InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a collaborative web-based system designed to support the conduct of mishap investigations. IO provides a common repository for a wide range of mishap related information, and allows investigators to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links between evidence, causal models, findings and recommendations. It integrates the functionality of a database, a common document repository, a semantic knowledge network, a rule-based inference engine, and causal modeling and visualization. Thus far, IO has been used to support four mishap investigations within NASA, ranging from a small property damage case to the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia. This paper describes how the functionality of IO supports mishap investigations and the lessons learned from the experience of supporting two of the NASA mishap investigations: the Columbia Accident Investigation and the CONTOUR Loss Investigation.
Testing a Model of Diabetes Self-Care Management: A Causal Model Analysis with LISREL.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nowacek, George A.; And Others

1990-01-01

A diabetes-management model is presented, which includes an attitudinal element and depicts relationships among causal elements. LISREL-VI was used to analyze data from 115 Type-I and 105 Type-II patients. The data did not closely fit the model. Results support the importance of the personal meaning of diabetes. (TJH)
Cognitive Demand Differences in Causal Inferences: Characters' Plans Are More Difficult to Comprehend than Physical Causation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shears, Connie; Miller, Vanessa; Ball, Megan; Hawkins, Amanda; Griggs, Janna; Varner, Andria

2007-01-01

Readers may draw knowledge-based inferences to connect sentences in text differently depending on the knowledge domain being accessed. Most prior research has focused on the direction of the causal explanation (predictive vs. backward) without regard to the knowledge domain drawn on to support comprehension. We suggest that less cognitive effort…
Vaccines and autism: evidence does not support a causal association.

PubMed

DeStefano, F

2007-12-01

A suggested association between certain childhood vaccines and autism has been one of the most contentious vaccine safety controversies in recent years. Despite compelling scientific evidence against a causal association, many parents and parent advocacy groups continue to suspect that vaccines, particularly measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine and thimerosal-containing vaccines (TCVs), can cause autism.
Health impact of external funding for HIV, tuberculosis and malaria: systematic review

PubMed Central

de Jongh, Thyra E; Harnmeijer, Joanne H; Atun, Rifat; Korenromp, Eline L; Zhao, Jinkou; Puvimanasinghe, John; Baltussen, Rob

2014-01-01

Background Since 2002, development assistance for health has substantially increased, especially investments for HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria control. We undertook a systematic review to assess and synthesize the existing evidence in the scientific literature on the health impacts of these investments. Methods and findings We systematically searched databases for peer-reviewed and grey literature, using tailored search strategies. We screened studies for study design and relevance, using predefined inclusion criteria, and selected those that enabled us to link health outcomes or impact to increased external funding. For all included studies, we recorded dataset and study characteristics, health outcomes and impacts. We analysed the data using a causal-chain framework to develop a narrative summary of the published evidence. Thirteen articles, representing 11 individual studies set in Africa and Asia reporting impacts on HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, met the inclusion criteria. Only two of these studies documented the entire causal-chain spanning from funding to programme scale-up, to outputs, outcomes and impacts. Nonetheless, overall we find a positive correlation between consecutive steps in the causal chain, suggesting that external funds for HIV, tuberculosis and malaria programmes contributed to improved health outcomes and impact. Conclusions Despite the large number of supported programmes worldwide and despite an abundance of published studies on HIV, TB and malaria control, we identified very few eligible studies that adequately demonstrated the full process by which external funding has been translated to health impact. Most of these studies did not move beyond demonstrating statistical association, as opposed to contribution or causation. We thus recommend that funding organizations and researchers increase the emphasis on ensuring data capture along the causal pathway to demonstrate effect and contribution of external financing. The findings of these comprehensive and rigorously conducted impact evaluations should also be made publicly accessible. PMID:23921987
Accounting for occurrences: an explanation for some novel tendencies in causal judgment from contingency information.

PubMed

White, Peter A

2009-06-01

Contingency information is information about empirical associations between possible causes and outcomes. In the present research, it is shown that, under some circumstances, there is a tendency for negative contingencies to lead to positive causal judgments and for positive contingencies to lead to negative causal judgments. If there is a high proportion of instances in which a candidate cause (CC) being judged is present, these tendencies are predicted by weighted averaging models of causal judgment. If the proportion of such instances is low, the predictions of weighted averaging models break down. It is argued that one of the main aims of causal judgment is to account for occurrences of the outcome. Thus, a CC is not given a high causal judgment if there are few or no occurrences of it, regardless of the objective contingency. This argument predicts that, if there is a low proportion of instances in which a CC is present, causal judgments are determined mainly by the number of Cell A instances (i.e., CC present, outcome occurs), and that this explains why weighted averaging models fail to predict judgmental tendencies under these circumstances. Experimental results support this argument.
Re-Examining the Association between Vitamin D and Childhood Caries

PubMed Central

Dudding, Tom; Thomas, Steve J.; Duncan, Karen; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Timpson, Nicholas J.

2015-01-01

Background Previous studies have reported an inverse association between vitamin D and childhood dental caries, but whether this is causal is unclear. Objective To determine the causal effect of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration on dental caries experience, early caries onset and the requirement for a dental general anesthetic. Design A Mendelian randomization study was undertaken, using genetic variants known to be associated with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in 5,545 European origin children from the South West of England. Data on caries and related characteristics were obtained from parental and child completed questionnaires between 38 and 91 months and clinical assessments in a random 10% sample at 31, 44 and 61 months. Results In multivariable confounder adjusted analyses no strong evidence for an association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D with caries experience or severity was found but there was evidence for an association with early caries onset, or having a general anesthetic for dental problems. In Mendelian randomization analysis the odds ratio for caries experience per 10 nmol/L increase in 25-hydroxyvitamin D was 0.93 (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 1.05; P = 0.26) and the odds ratio for dental general anaesthetic per 10 nmol/L increase in 25-hydroxyvitamin D was 0.96 (95% confidence interval: 0.75, 1.22; P = 0.72). Conclusions This Mendelian randomization study provides little evidence to support an inverse causal effect of 25-hydroxyvitamin D on dental caries. However, the estimates are imprecise and a larger study is required to refine these analyses. PMID:26692013
Role of Adiponectin in Coronary Heart Disease Risk

PubMed Central

Lawlor, Debbie A.; de Oliveira, Cesar; White, Jon; Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Barros, Aluísio J.D.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Hypoadiponectinemia correlates with several coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. However, it is unknown whether adiponectin is causally implicated in CHD pathogenesis. Objective: We aimed to investigate the causal effect of adiponectin on CHD risk. Methods and Results: We undertook a Mendelian randomization study using data from genome-wide association studies consortia. We used the ADIPOGen consortium to identify genetic variants that could be used as instrumental variables for the effect of adiponectin. Data on the association of these genetic variants with CHD risk were obtained from CARDIoGRAM (22 233 CHD cases and 64 762 controls of European ancestry) and from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Metabochip (63 746 cases and 130 681 controls; ≈ 91% of European ancestry) consortia. Data on the association of genetic variants with adiponectin levels and with CHD were combined to estimate the influence of blood adiponectin on CHD risk. In the conservative approach (restricted to using variants within the adiponectin gene as instrumental variables), each 1 U increase in log blood adiponectin concentration was associated with an odds ratio for CHD of 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.68–1.01) in CARDIoGRAM and 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–1.12) in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Metabochip. Findings from the liberal approach (including variants in any locus across the genome) indicated a protective effect of adiponectin that was attenuated to the null after adjustment for known CHD predictors. Conclusions: Overall, our findings do not support a causal role of adiponectin levels in CHD pathogenesis. PMID:27252388
Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Wittenborn, A K; Rahmandad, H; Rick, J; Hosseinichimeh, N

2016-02-01

Depression is a complex public health problem with considerable variation in treatment response. The systemic complexity of depression, or the feedback processes among diverse drivers of the disorder, contribute to the persistence of depression. This paper extends prior attempts to understand the complex causal feedback mechanisms that underlie depression by presenting the first broad boundary causal loop diagram of depression dynamics. We applied qualitative system dynamics methods to map the broad feedback mechanisms of depression. We used a structured approach to identify candidate causal mechanisms of depression in the literature. We assessed the strength of empirical support for each mechanism and prioritized those with support from validation studies. Through an iterative process, we synthesized the empirical literature and created a conceptual model of major depressive disorder. The literature review and synthesis resulted in the development of the first causal loop diagram of reinforcing feedback processes of depression. It proposes candidate drivers of illness, or inertial factors, and their temporal functioning, as well as the interactions among drivers of depression. The final causal loop diagram defines 13 key reinforcing feedback loops that involve nine candidate drivers of depression. Future research is needed to expand upon this initial model of depression dynamics. Quantitative extensions may result in a better understanding of the systemic syndrome of depression and contribute to personalized methods of evaluation, prevention and intervention.
The Mental Health Outcomes of Drought: A Systematic Review and Causal Process Diagram

PubMed Central

Vins, Holly; Bell, Jesse; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2015-01-01

Little is understood about the long term, indirect health consequences of drought (a period of abnormally dry weather). In particular, the implications of drought for mental health via pathways such as loss of livelihood, diminished social support, and rupture of place bonds have not been extensively studied, leaving a knowledge gap for practitioners and researchers alike. A systematic review of literature was performed to examine the mental health effects of drought. The systematic review results were synthesized to create a causal process diagram that illustrates the pathways linking drought effects to mental health outcomes. Eighty-two articles using a variety of methods in different contexts were gathered from the systematic review. The pathways in the causal process diagram with greatest support in the literature are those focusing on the economic and migratory effects of drought. The diagram highlights the complexity of the relationships between drought and mental health, including the multiple ways that factors can interact and lead to various outcomes. The systematic review and resulting causal process diagram can be used in both practice and theory, including prevention planning, public health programming, vulnerability and risk assessment, and research question guidance. The use of a causal process diagram provides a much needed avenue for integrating the findings of diverse research to further the understanding of the mental health implications of drought. PMID:26506367
Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Vincent, Jeffrey R

2012-07-24

A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link.
The Simpson's paradox unraveled

PubMed Central

Hernán, Miguel A; Clayton, David; Keiding, Niels

2011-01-01

Background In a famous article, Simpson described a hypothetical data example that led to apparently paradoxical results. Methods We make the causal structure of Simpson's example explicit. Results We show how the paradox disappears when the statistical analysis is appropriately guided by subject-matter knowledge. We also review previous explanations of Simpson's paradox that attributed it to two distinct phenomena: confounding and non-collapsibility. Conclusion Analytical errors may occur when the problem is stripped of its causal context and analyzed merely in statistical terms. PMID:21454324
Herbal hepatotoxicity: Challenges and pitfalls of causality assessment methods

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Frenzel, Christian; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel

2013-01-01

The diagnosis of herbal hepatotoxicity or herb induced liver injury (HILI) represents a particular clinical and regulatory challenge with major pitfalls for the causality evaluation. At the day HILI is suspected in a patient, physicians should start assessing the quality of the used herbal product, optimizing the clinical data for completeness, and applying the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale for initial causality assessment. This scale is structured, quantitative, liver specific, and validated for hepatotoxicity cases. Its items provide individual scores, which together yield causality levels of highly probable, probable, possible, unlikely, and excluded. After completion by additional information including raw data, this scale with all items should be reported to regulatory agencies and manufacturers for further evaluation. The CIOMS scale is preferred as tool for assessing causality in hepatotoxicity cases, compared to numerous other causality assessment methods, which are inferior on various grounds. Among these disputed methods are the Maria and Victorino scale, an insufficiently qualified, shortened version of the CIOMS scale, as well as various liver unspecific methods such as the ad hoc causality approach, the Naranjo scale, the World Health Organization (WHO) method, and the Karch and Lasagna method. An expert panel is required for the Drug Induced Liver Injury Network method, the WHO method, and other approaches based on expert opinion, which provide retrospective analyses with a long delay and thereby prevent a timely assessment of the illness in question by the physician. In conclusion, HILI causality assessment is challenging and is best achieved by the liver specific CIOMS scale, avoiding pitfalls commonly observed with other approaches. PMID:23704820
Causality Assessment in Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using a Structured Expert Opinion Process: Comparison to the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Rockey, Don C.; Seeff, Leonard B.; Rochon, James; Freston, James; Chalasani, Naga; Bonacini, Maurizio; Fontana, Robert J.; Hayashi, Paul H.

2011-01-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is largely a diagnosis of exclusion and is therefore challenging. The US Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN) prospective study used two methods to assess DILI causality: a structured expert opinion process and the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM). Causality assessment focused on detailed clinical and laboratory data from patients with suspected DILI. The adjudication process used standardized numerical and descriptive definitions and scored cases as definite, highly likely, probable, possible, or unlikely. Results of the structured expert opinion procedure were compared with those derived by the RUCAM approach. Among 250 patients with suspected DILI, the expert opinion adjudication process scored 78 patients (31%) as definite, 102 (41%) as highly likely, 37 (15%) as probable, 25 (10%) as possible, and 8 (3%) as unlikely. Among 187 enrollees who had received a single implicated drug, initial complete agreement was reached for 50 (27%) with the expert opinion process and for 34 (19%) with a five-category RUCAM scale (P = 0.08), and the two methods demonstrated a modest correlation with each other (Spearman's r = 0.42, P = 0.0001). Importantly, the RUCAM approach substantially shifted the causality likelihood toward lower probabilities in comparison with the DILIN expert opinion process. Conclusion The structured DILIN expert opinion process produced higher agreement rates and likelihood scores than RUCAM in assessing causality, but there was still considerable interobserver variability in both. Accordingly, a more objective, reliable, and reproducible means of assessing DILI causality is still needed. PMID:20512999
[A study of relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in school-aged children].

PubMed

Sakurai, S

1989-12-01

This study was conducted to investigate the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in Japanese school-aged children. In Study 1, the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale for children developed by Kazdin, French, Unis, Esveldt-Dawsan, and Sherick (1983) was constructed. Seventeen original items were translated into Japanese and they were administrated to 405 fifth- and sixth-graders. All of the items could be included to the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale. The reliability and validity was examined. In Study 2, the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in children were investigated. The causal attribution questionnaire developed by Higuchi, Kambare, and Otsuka (1983) and the hopelessness scale developed by Study 1 were administered to 188 sixth-graders. Children with high scores in hopelessness scale significantly attributed negative events to much more effort factor than children with low scores. It supports neither the reformulated learned helplessness model nor the causal attribution theory of achievement motivation. It was explained mainly from points of self-serving attribution, cultural difference, and social desirability. Some questions were discussed for developing studies on depression and causal attribution in Japan.
Relativistic causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valente, Giovanni; Owen Weatherall, James

2014-11-01

Relativity theory is often taken to include, or to imply, a prohibition on superluminal propagation of causal processes. Yet, what exactly the prohibition on superluminal propagation amounts to and how one should deal with its possible violation have remained open philosophical problems, both in the context of the metaphysics of causation and the foundations of physics. In particular, recent work in philosophy of physics has focused on the causal structure of spacetime in relativity theory and on how this causal structure manifests itself in our most fundamental theories of matter. These topics were the subject of a workshop on "Relativistic Causality in Quantum Field Theory and General Relativity" that we organized (along with John Earman) at the Center for Philosophy of Science in Pittsburgh on April 5-7, 2013. The present Special Issue comprises contributions by speakers in that workshop as well as several other experts exploring different aspects of relativistic causality. We are grateful to the journal for hosting this Special Issue, to the journal's managing editor, Femke Kuiling, for her help and support in putting the issue together, and to the authors and the referees for their excellent work.
Locality, reflection, and wave-particle duality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mugur-Schächter, Mioara

1987-08-01

Bell's theorem is believed to establish that the quantum mechanical predictions do not generally admit a causal representation compatible with Einsten's principle of separability, thereby proving incompatibility between quantum mechanics and relativity. This interpretation is contested via two convergent approaches which lead to a sharp distinction between quantum nonseparability and violation of Einstein's theory of relativity. In a first approach we explicate from the quantum mechanical formalism a concept of “reflected dependence.” Founded on this concept, we produce a causal representation of the quantum mechanical probability measure involved in Bell's proof, which is clearly separable in Einstein's sense, i.e., it does not involve supraluminal velocities, and nevertheless is “nonlocal” in Bell's sense. So Bell locality and Einstein separability are distinct qualifications, and Bell nonlocality (or Bell nonseparability) and Einstein separability are not incompatible. It is then proved explicitly that with respect to the mentioned representation Bell's derivation does not hold. So Bell's derivation does not establish that any Einstein-separable representation is incompatible with quantum mechanics. This first—negative—conclusion is a syntactic fact. The characteristics of the representation and of the reasoning involved in the mentioned counterexample to the usual interpretation of Bell's theorem suggest that the representation used—notwithstanding its ability to bring forth the specified syntactic fact—is not factually true. Factual truth and syntactic properties also have to be radically distinguished in their turn. So, in a second approach, starting from de Broglie's initial relativistic model of a microsystem, a deeper, factually acceptable representation is constructed. The analyses leading to this second representation show that quantum mechanics does indeed involve basically a certain sort of nonseparability, called here de Broglie-Bohr quantum nonseparability. But the de Broglie-Bohr quantum nonseparability is shown to stem directly from the relativistic character of the considerations which led Louis de Broglie to the fundamental relation p = h/λ, thereby being essentially consistent with relativity. As to Einstein separability, it appears to be a still insufficiently specified concept of which a future, improved specification, will probably be explicitly harmonizable with the de Broglie-Bohr quantum nonseparability. The ensemble of the conclusions obtained here brings forth a new concept of causality, a concept of folded, zigzag, reflexive causality, with respect to which the type of causality conceived of up to now appears as a particular case of outstretched, one-way causality. The reflexive causality is found compatible with the results of Aspect's experiment, and it suggests new experiments. Considered globally, the conclusions obtained in the present work might convert the conceptual situation created by Bell's proof into a process of unification of quantum mechanics and relativity.
A Case Study Examination of Structure and Function in a State Health Department Chronic Disease Unit

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Objectives. I explored the structural and operational practices of the chronic disease prevention and control unit of a state health department and proposed a conceptual model of structure, function, and effectiveness for future study. Methods. My exploratory case study examined 7 elements of organizational structure and practice. My interviews with staff and external stakeholders of a single chronic disease unit yielded quantitative and qualitative data that I coded by perspective, process, relationship, and activity. I analyzed these for patterns and emerging themes. Results. Chi-square analysis revealed significant correlations among collaboration with goal ambiguity, political support, and responsiveness, and evidence-based decisions with goal ambiguity and responsiveness. Conclusions. Although my study design did not permit conclusions about causality, my findings suggested that some elements of the model might facilitate effectiveness for chronic disease units and should be studied further. My findings might have important implications for identifying levers around which capacity can be built that may strengthen effectiveness. PMID:25689211
The Longitudinal Causal Directionality between Body Image Distress and Self-Esteem among Korean Adolescents: The Moderating Effect of Relationships with Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Woochul; Epstein, Norman B.

2013-01-01

This study examined the longitudinal relationship between self-esteem and body image distress, as well as the moderating effect of relationships with parents, among adolescents in Korea, using nationally representative prospective panel data. Regarding causal direction, the findings supported bi-directionality for girls, but for boys the…
Investigating causal associations between use of nicotine, alcohol, caffeine and cannabis: a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization study.

PubMed

Verweij, Karin J H; Treur, Jorien L; Vink, Jacqueline M

2018-07-01

Epidemiological studies consistently show co-occurrence of use of different addictive substances. Whether these associations are causal or due to overlapping underlying influences remains an important question in addiction research. Methodological advances have made it possible to use published genetic associations to infer causal relationships between phenotypes. In this exploratory study, we used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine the causality of well-established associations between nicotine, alcohol, caffeine and cannabis use. Two-sample MR was employed to estimate bidirectional causal effects between four addictive substances: nicotine (smoking initiation and cigarettes smoked per day), caffeine (cups of coffee per day), alcohol (units per week) and cannabis (initiation). Based on existing genome-wide association results we selected genetic variants associated with the exposure measure as an instrument to estimate causal effects. Where possible we applied sensitivity analyses (MR-Egger and weighted median) more robust to horizontal pleiotropy. Most MR tests did not reveal causal associations. There was some weak evidence for a causal positive effect of genetically instrumented alcohol use on smoking initiation and of cigarettes per day on caffeine use, but these were not supported by the sensitivity analyses. There was also some suggestive evidence for a positive effect of alcohol use on caffeine use (only with MR-Egger) and smoking initiation on cannabis initiation (only with weighted median). None of the suggestive causal associations survived corrections for multiple testing. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses found little evidence for causal relationships between nicotine, alcohol, caffeine and cannabis use. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc
A review of cognitive biases in youth depression: attention, interpretation and memory.

PubMed

Platt, Belinda; Waters, Allison M; Schulte-Koerne, Gerd; Engelmann, Lina; Salemink, Elske

2017-04-01

Depression is one of the most common mental health problems in childhood and adolescence. Although data consistently show it is associated with self-reported negative cognitive styles, less is known about the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Cognitive biases in attention, interpretation and memory represent plausible mechanisms and are known to characterise adult depression. We provide the first structured review of studies investigating the nature and causal role of cognitive biases in youth depression. Key questions are (i) do cognitive biases characterise youth depression? (ii) are cognitive biases a vulnerability factor for youth depression? and (iii) do cognitive biases play a causal role in youth depression? We find consistent evidence for positive associations between attention and interpretation biases and youth depression. Stronger biases in youth with an elevated risk of depression support cognitive-vulnerability models. Preliminary evidence from cognitive bias modification paradigms supports a causal role of attention and interpretation biases in youth depression but these paradigms require testing in clinical samples before they can be considered treatment tools. Studies of memory biases in youth samples have produced mixed findings and none have investigated the causal role of memory bias. We identify numerous areas for future research in this emerging field.
On the Support of Minimizers of Causal Variational Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finster, Felix; Schiefeneder, Daniela

2013-11-01

A class of causal variational principles on a compact manifold is introduced and analyzed both numerically and analytically. It is proved under general assumptions that the support of a minimizing measure is either completely timelike, or it is singular in the sense that its interior is empty. In the examples of the circle, the sphere and certain flag manifolds, the general results are supplemented by a more detailed and explicit analysis of the minimizers. On the sphere, we get a connection to packing problems and the Tammes distribution. Moreover, the minimal action is estimated from above and below.
Causal reports: Context-dependent contributions of intuitive physics and visual impressions of launching.

PubMed

Vicovaro, Michele

2018-05-01

Everyday causal reports appear to be based on a blend of perceptual and cognitive processes. Causality can sometimes be perceived automatically through low-level visual processing of stimuli, but it can also be inferred on the basis of an intuitive understanding of the physical mechanism that underlies an observable event. We investigated how visual impressions of launching and the intuitive physics of collisions contribute to the formation of explicit causal responses. In Experiment 1, participants observed collisions between realistic objects differing in apparent material and hence implied mass, whereas in Experiment 2, participants observed collisions between abstract, non-material objects. The results of Experiment 1 showed that ratings of causality were mainly driven by the intuitive physics of collisions, whereas the results of Experiment 2 provide some support to the hypothesis that ratings of causality were mainly driven by visual impressions of launching. These results suggest that stimulus factors and experimental design factors - such as the realism of the stimuli and the variation in the implied mass of the colliding objects - may determine the relative contributions of perceptual and post-perceptual cognitive processes to explicit causal responses. A revised version of the impetus transmission heuristic provides a satisfactory explanation for these results, whereas the hypothesis that causal responses and intuitive physics are based on the internalization of physical laws does not. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Academic Procrastination: The Relationship Between Causal Attribution Styles and Behavioral Postponement

PubMed Central

Badri Gargari, Rahim; Sabouri, Hossein; Norzad, Fatemeh

2011-01-01

Objective: This research was conducted to study the relationship between attribution and academic procrastination in University Students. Methods: The subjects were 203 undergraduate students, 55 males and 148 females, selected from English and French language and literature students of Tabriz University. Data were gathered through Procrastination Assessment Scale-student (PASS) and Causal Dimension Scale (CDA) and were analyzed by multiple regression analysis (stepwise). Results: The results showed that there was a meaningful and negative relation between the locus of control and controllability in success context and academic procrastination. Besides, a meaningful and positive relation was observed between the locus of control and stability in failure context and procrastination. It was also found that 17% of the variance of procrastination was accounted by linear combination of attributions. Conclusion: We believe that causal attribution is a key in understanding procrastination in academic settings and is used by those who have the knowledge of Causal Attribution styles to organize their learning. PMID:24644450
A systematic review of the etiopathogenesis of Kienböck's disease and a critical appraisal of its recognition as an occupational disease related to hand-arm vibration

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background We systematically reviewed etiological factors of Kienböck’s disease (osteonecrosis of the lunate) discussed in the literature in order to examine the justification for including Kienböck’s disease (KD) in the European Listing of Occupational Diseases. Methods We searched the Ovid/Medline and the Cochrane Library for articles discussing the etiology of osteonecrosis of the lunate published since the first description of KD in 1910 and up until July 2012 in English, French or German. Literature was classified by the level of evidence presented, the etiopathological hypothesis discussed, and the author's conclusion about the role of the etiopathological hypothesis. The causal relationship between KD and hand-arm vibration was elucidated by the Bradford Hill criteria. Results A total of 220 references was found. Of the included 152 articles, 140 (92%) reached the evidence level IV (case series). The four most frequently discussed factors were negative ulnar variance (n=72; 47%), primary arterial ischemia of the lunate (n=63; 41%), trauma (n=63; 41%) and hand-arm vibration (n=53; 35%). The quality of the cohort studies on hand-arm vibration did not permit a meta-analysis to evaluate the strength of an association to KD. Evidence for the lack of consistency, plausibility and coherence of the 4 most frequently discussed etiopathologies was found. No evidence was found to support any of the nine Bradford Hill criteria for a causal relationship between KD and hand-arm vibration. Conclusions A systematic review of 220 articles on the etiopathology of KD and the application of the Bradford Hill criteria does not provide sufficient scientific evidence to confirm or refute a causal relationship between KD and hand-arm vibration. This currently suggests that, KD does not comply with the criteria of the International Labour Organization determining occupational diseases. However, research with a higher level of evidence is required to further determine if hand-arm vibration is a risk factor for KD. PMID:23171057
AN EPA SPONSORED LITERATURE REVIEW DATABASE TO SUPPORT STRESSOR IDENTIFICATION

EPA Science Inventory

The Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) is an EPA decision-support system currently under development for evaluating the biological impact of stressors on water bodies. In support of CADDIS, EPA is developing CADLIT, a searchable database of the scient...
Explaining prompts children to privilege inductively rich properties.

PubMed

Walker, Caren M; Lombrozo, Tania; Legare, Cristine H; Gopnik, Alison

2014-11-01

Four experiments with preschool-aged children test the hypothesis that engaging in explanation promotes inductive reasoning on the basis of shared causal properties as opposed to salient (but superficial) perceptual properties. In Experiments 1a and 1b, 3- to 5-year-old children prompted to explain during a causal learning task were more likely to override a tendency to generalize according to perceptual similarity and instead extend an internal feature to an object that shared a causal property. Experiment 2 replicated this effect of explanation in a case of label extension (i.e., categorization). Experiment 3 demonstrated that explanation improves memory for clusters of causally relevant (non-perceptual) features, but impairs memory for superficial (perceptual) features, providing evidence that effects of explanation are selective in scope and apply to memory as well as inference. In sum, our data support the proposal that engaging in explanation influences children's reasoning by privileging inductively rich, causal properties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Recognising discourse causality triggers in the biomedical domain.

PubMed

Mihăilă, Claudiu; Ananiadou, Sophia

2013-12-01

Current domain-specific information extraction systems represent an important resource for biomedical researchers, who need to process vast amounts of knowledge in a short time. Automatic discourse causality recognition can further reduce their workload by suggesting possible causal connections and aiding in the curation of pathway models. We describe here an approach to the automatic identification of discourse causality triggers in the biomedical domain using machine learning. We create several baselines and experiment with and compare various parameter settings for three algorithms, i.e. Conditional Random Fields (CRF), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF). We also evaluate the impact of lexical, syntactic, and semantic features on each of the algorithms, showing that semantics improves the performance in all cases. We test our comprehensive feature set on two corpora containing gold standard annotations of causal relations, and demonstrate the need for more gold standard data. The best performance of 79.35% F-score is achieved by CRFs when using all three feature types.
Verification of causal influences of reasoning skills and epistemology on physics conceptual learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Lin

2014-12-01

This study seeks to test the causal influences of reasoning skills and epistemologies on student conceptual learning in physics. A causal model, integrating multiple variables that were investigated separately in the prior literature, is proposed and tested through path analysis. These variables include student preinstructional reasoning skills measured by the Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning, pre- and postepistemological views measured by the Colorado Learning Attitudes about Science Survey, and pre- and postperformance on Newtonian concepts measured by the Force Concept Inventory. Students from a traditionally taught calculus-based introductory mechanics course at a research university participated in the study. Results largely support the postulated causal model and reveal strong influences of reasoning skills and preinstructional epistemology on student conceptual learning gains. Interestingly enough, postinstructional epistemology does not appear to have a significant influence on student learning gains. Moreover, pre- and postinstructional epistemology, although barely different from each other on average, have little causal connection between them.
Perceptual impressions of causality are affected by common fate.

PubMed

White, Peter A

2017-03-24

Many studies of perceptual impressions of causality have used a stimulus in which a moving object (the launcher) contacts a stationary object (the target) and the latter then moves off. Such stimuli give rise to an impression that the launcher makes the target move. In the present experiments, instead of a single target object, an array of four vertically aligned objects was used. The launcher contacted none of them, but stopped at a point between the two central objects. The four objects then moved with similar motion properties, exhibiting the Gestalt property of common fate. Strong impressions of causality were reported for this stimulus. It is argued that the array of four objects was perceived, by the likelihood principle, as a single object with some parts unseen, that the launcher was perceived as contacting one of the unseen parts of this object, and that the causal impression resulted from that. Supporting that argument, stimuli in which kinematic features were manipulated so as to weaken or eliminate common fate yielded weaker impressions of causality.
Genetic Obesity and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation – Causal Estimates from Mendelian Randomization

PubMed Central

Chatterjee, Neal A.; Arking, Dan E.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Heeringa, Jan; Lin, Honghuang; Lubitz, Steven A.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Verweij, Niek; Alonso, Alvaro; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Stricker, Bruno H. C.; Van Der Harst, Pim; Chasman, Daniel I.; Albert, Christine M.

2017-01-01

Background Observational studies have identified an association between body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Inferring causality from observational studies, however, is subject to residual confounding, reverse causation, and bias. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the causal association between BMI and AF using genetic predictors of BMI. Methods We identified 51 646 individuals of European ancestry without AF at baseline from seven prospective population-based cohorts initiated between 1987 and 2002 in the United States, Iceland, and the Netherlands with incident AF ascertained between 1987 and 2012. Cohort-specific mean follow-up ranged 7.4 to 19.2 years, over which period there were a total of 4178 cases of incident AF. We performed a Mendelian randomization with instrumental variable analysis to estimate a cohort-specific causal hazard ratio for the association between BMI and AF. Two genetic instruments for BMI were utilized: FTO genotype (rs1558902) and a BMI gene score comprised of 39 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified by genome-wide association studies to be associated with BMI. Cohort-specific estimates were combined by random-effects, inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. Results In age- and sex-adjusted meta-analysis, both genetic instruments were significantly associated with BMI (FTO: 0.43 [95% CI: 0.32 – 0.54] kg/m2 per A-allele, p<0.001); BMI gene score: 1.05 [95% CI: 0.90-1.20] kg/m2 per 1 unit increase, p<0.001) and incident AF (FTO – HR: 1.07 [1.02-1.11] per A-allele, p=0.004; BMI gene score – HR: 1.11 [1.05-1.18] per 1-unit increase, p<0.001). Age- and sex-adjusted instrumental variable estimates for the causal association between BMI and incident AF were HR 1.15 [1.04-1.26] per kg/m2, p=0.005 (FTO) and 1.11 [1.05-1.17] per kg/m2, p<0.001 (BMI gene score). Both of these estimates were consistent with the meta-analyzed estimate between observed BMI and AF (age- and sex-adjusted HR 1.05 [1.04-1.06] per kg/m2, p<0.001). Multivariable adjustment did not significantly change findings. Conclusions Our data are consistent with a causal relationship between BMI and incident AF. These data support the possibility that public health initiatives targeting primordial prevention of obesity may reduce the incidence of AF. PMID:27974350
Ways of learning: Observational studies versus experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shaffer, T.L.; Johnson, D.H.

2008-01-01

Manipulative experimentation that features random assignment of treatments, replication, and controls is an effective way to determine causal relationships. Wildlife ecologists, however, often must take a more passive approach to investigating causality. Their observational studies lack one or more of the 3 cornerstones of experimentation: controls, randomization, and replication. Although an observational study can be analyzed similarly to an experiment, one is less certain that the presumed treatment actually caused the observed response. Because the investigator does not actively manipulate the system, the chance that something other than the treatment caused the observed results is increased. We reviewed observational studies and contrasted them with experiments and, to a lesser extent, sample surveys. We identified features that distinguish each method of learning and illustrate or discuss some complications that may arise when analyzing results of observational studies. Findings from observational studies are prone to bias. Investigators can reduce the chance of reaching erroneous conclusions by formulating a priori hypotheses that can be pursued multiple ways and by evaluating the sensitivity of study conclusions to biases of various magnitudes. In the end, however, professional judgment that considers all available evidence is necessary to render a decision regarding causality based on observational studies.
Neural theory for the perception of causal actions.

PubMed

Fleischer, Falk; Christensen, Andrea; Caggiano, Vittorio; Thier, Peter; Giese, Martin A

2012-07-01

The efficient prediction of the behavior of others requires the recognition of their actions and an understanding of their action goals. In humans, this process is fast and extremely robust, as demonstrated by classical experiments showing that human observers reliably judge causal relationships and attribute interactive social behavior to strongly simplified stimuli consisting of simple moving geometrical shapes. While psychophysical experiments have identified critical visual features that determine the perception of causality and agency from such stimuli, the underlying detailed neural mechanisms remain largely unclear, and it is an open question why humans developed this advanced visual capability at all. We created pairs of naturalistic and abstract stimuli of hand actions that were exactly matched in terms of their motion parameters. We show that varying critical stimulus parameters for both stimulus types leads to very similar modulations of the perception of causality. However, the additional form information about the hand shape and its relationship with the object supports more fine-grained distinctions for the naturalistic stimuli. Moreover, we show that a physiologically plausible model for the recognition of goal-directed hand actions reproduces the observed dependencies of causality perception on critical stimulus parameters. These results support the hypothesis that selectivity for abstract action stimuli might emerge from the same neural mechanisms that underlie the visual processing of natural goal-directed action stimuli. Furthermore, the model proposes specific detailed neural circuits underlying this visual function, which can be evaluated in future experiments.
Wage subsidies and hiring chances for the disabled: some causal evidence.

PubMed

Baert, Stijn

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the effectiveness of wage subsidies as a policy instrument to integrate disabled individuals into the labor market. To identify causal effects, a large-scale field experiment was conducted in Belgium. The results show that the likelihood of a disabled candidate receiving a positive response to a job application is not positively influenced by disclosing entitlement to the Flemish Supporting Subsidy.
An Evaluation of the Effects of a Breastfeeding Support Program on Health Outcomes

PubMed Central

Haider, Steven J; Chang, Lenisa V; Bolton, Tracie A; Gold, Jonathan G; Olson, Beth H

2014-01-01

Objective To estimate the causal effect of a Michigan peer counselor (PC) breastfeeding support program for low-income women on infant health outcomes. Data Sources Program referral forms, program forms (enrollment, birth, and exit data), and state administrative data from the Women Infants and Children program, Medicaid, and Vital Records. Study Design Quasi-random enrollment due to the excess demand for PC breastfeeding support services allowed us to compare the infants of women who requested services and were enrolled in the program (the treatment group, N = 274) to the infants of women who requested services and were not enrolled (the control group, N = 572). Data were analyzed using regression. Principal Findings The PC program increased the fraction breastfeeding at birth by 19.3 percent and breastfeeding duration by 2.84 weeks. Program participation also reduced the fraction of infants with gastrointestinal disorders by a statistically significant 7.9 percent. The program, if anything, increased the overall health care utilization. Conclusions This Michigan PC breastfeeding support program resulted in improvements in breastfeeding and infant health outcomes as measured by the diagnosis of ailments while increasing health care utilization. PMID:25039793
Consequences of bullying victimization in childhood and adolescence: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Moore, Sophie E; Norman, Rosana E; Suetani, Shuichi; Thomas, Hannah J; Sly, Peter D; Scott, James G

2017-01-01

AIM To identify health and psychosocial problems associated with bullying victimization and conduct a meta-analysis summarizing the causal evidence. METHODS A systematic review was conducted using PubMed, EMBASE, ERIC and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 28 February 2015. The study included published longitudinal and cross-sectional articles that examined health and psychosocial consequences of bullying victimization. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria and the grading system developed by the World Cancer Research Fund. RESULTS Out of 317 articles assessed for eligibility, 165 satisfied the predetermined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between bullying victimization and a wide range of adverse health and psychosocial problems. The evidence was strongest for causal associations between bullying victimization and mental health problems such as depression, anxiety, poor general health and suicidal ideation and behaviours. Probable causal associations existed between bullying victimization and tobacco and illicit drug use. CONCLUSION Strong evidence exists for a causal relationship between bullying victimization, mental health problems and substance use. Evidence also exists for associations between bullying victimization and other adverse health and psychosocial problems, however, there is insufficient evidence to conclude causality. The strong evidence that bullying victimization is causative of mental illness highlights the need for schools to implement effective interventions to address bullying behaviours. PMID:28401049
Improving Causal Inferences in Meta-analyses of Longitudinal Studies: Spanking as an Illustration.

PubMed

Larzelere, Robert E; Gunnoe, Marjorie Lindner; Ferguson, Christopher J

2018-05-24

To evaluate and improve the validity of causal inferences from meta-analyses of longitudinal studies, two adjustments for Time-1 outcome scores and a temporally backwards test are demonstrated. Causal inferences would be supported by robust results across both adjustment methods, distinct from results run backwards. A systematic strategy for evaluating potential confounds is also introduced. The methods are illustrated by assessing the impact of spanking on subsequent externalizing problems (child age: 18 months to 11 years). Significant results indicated a small risk or a small benefit of spanking, depending on the adjustment method. These meta-analytic methods are applicable for research on alternatives to spanking and other developmental science topics. The underlying principles can also improve causal inferences in individual studies. © 2018 Society for Research in Child Development.
Therapists' causal attributions of clients' problems and selection of intervention strategies.

PubMed

Royce, W S; Muehlke, C V

1991-04-01

Therapists' choices of intervention strategies are influenced by many factors, including judgments about the bases of clients' problems. To assess the relationships between such causal attributions and the selection of intervention strategies, 196 counselors, psychologists, and social workers responded to the written transcript of a client's interview by answering two questionnaires, a 1982 scale (Causal Dimension Scale by Russell) which measured causal attribution of the client's problem, and another which measured preference for emotional, rational, and active intervention strategies in dealing with the client, based on the 1979 E-R-A taxonomy of Frey and Raming. A significant relationship was found between the two sets of variables, with internal attributions linked to rational intervention strategies and stable attributions linked to active strategies. The results support Halleck's 1978 hypothesis that theories of psychotherapy tie interventions to etiological considerations.
Guidelines for investigating causality of sequence variants in human disease

PubMed Central

MacArthur, D. G.; Manolio, T. A.; Dimmock, D. P.; Rehm, H. L.; Shendure, J.; Abecasis, G. R.; Adams, D. R.; Altman, R. B.; Antonarakis, S. E.; Ashley, E. A.; Barrett, J. C.; Biesecker, L. G.; Conrad, D. F.; Cooper, G. M.; Cox, N. J.; Daly, M. J.; Gerstein, M. B.; Goldstein, D. B.; Hirschhorn, J. N.; Leal, S. M.; Pennacchio, L. A.; Stamatoyannopoulos, J. A.; Sunyaev, S. R.; Valle, D.; Voight, B. F.; Winckler, W.; Gunter, C.

2014-01-01

The discovery of rare genetic variants is accelerating, and clear guidelines for distinguishing disease-causing sequence variants from the many potentially functional variants present in any human genome are urgently needed. Without rigorous standards we risk an acceleration of false-positive reports of causality, which would impede the translation of genomic research findings into the clinical diagnostic setting and hinder biological understanding of disease. Here we discuss the key challenges of assessing sequence variants in human disease, integrating both gene-level and variant-level support for causality. We propose guidelines for summarizing confidence in variant pathogenicity and highlight several areas that require further resource development. PMID:24759409

Guidelines for investigating causality of sequence variants in human disease.

PubMed

MacArthur, D G; Manolio, T A; Dimmock, D P; Rehm, H L; Shendure, J; Abecasis, G R; Adams, D R; Altman, R B; Antonarakis, S E; Ashley, E A; Barrett, J C; Biesecker, L G; Conrad, D F; Cooper, G M; Cox, N J; Daly, M J; Gerstein, M B; Goldstein, D B; Hirschhorn, J N; Leal, S M; Pennacchio, L A; Stamatoyannopoulos, J A; Sunyaev, S R; Valle, D; Voight, B F; Winckler, W; Gunter, C

2014-04-24

The discovery of rare genetic variants is accelerating, and clear guidelines for distinguishing disease-causing sequence variants from the many potentially functional variants present in any human genome are urgently needed. Without rigorous standards we risk an acceleration of false-positive reports of causality, which would impede the translation of genomic research findings into the clinical diagnostic setting and hinder biological understanding of disease. Here we discuss the key challenges of assessing sequence variants in human disease, integrating both gene-level and variant-level support for causality. We propose guidelines for summarizing confidence in variant pathogenicity and highlight several areas that require further resource development.
Outbreak of Sudden Cardiac Deaths in a Tire Manufacturing Facility: Can It Be Caused by Nanoparticles?

PubMed Central

Kim, Eun-A; Kim, Kun-Hyung; Lee, Naroo; Kim, Dae-Seong; Kang, Seong-Kyu

2012-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to review clinical characteristics and working environments of sudden cardiac death (SCD) cases associated with a tire manufacturer in Korea, and review possible occupational risk factors for cardiovascular disease including nanoparticles (ultrafine particles, UFPs). Methods We reviewed (i) the clinical course of SCD cases and (ii) occupational and non-occupational risk factors including chemicals, the physical work environment, and job characteristics. Results Possible occupational factors were chemicals, UFPs of rubber fume, a hot environment, shift work, overworking, and noise exposure. The mean diameter of rubber fume (63-73 nm) was (larger than diesel exhaust [12 nm] and outdoor dust [50 nm]). The concentration of carbon disulfide, carbon monoxide and styrene were lower than the limit of detection. Five SCD cases were exposed to shift work and overworking. Most of the cases had several non-occupational factors such as hypertension, overweight and smoking. Conclusion The diameter of rubber fume was larger than outdoor and the diesel exhaust, the most well known particulate having a causal relationship with cardiovascular disease. The possibility of a causal relation between UFPs of rubber fume and SCD was not supported in this study. However, it is necessary to continue studying the relationship between large sized UFPs and SCD. PMID:22953232
Educational attainment and obesity: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Cohen, Alison K.; Rai, Manisha; Rehkopf, David H.; Abrams, Barbara

2013-01-01

Background Although previous systematic reviews considered the relationship between socioeconomic status and obesity, almost 200 peer-reviewed articles have been published since the last review on that topic, and this paper focuses specifically on education, which has different implications. Methods The authors systematically review the peer-reviewed literature from around the world considering the association between educational attainment and obesity. Databases from public health and medicine, education, psychology, economics, and other social sciences were searched, and articles published in English, French, Portuguese, and Spanish were included. Results This paper includes 289 articles that report on 410 populations in 91 countries. The relationship between educational attainment and obesity was modified by both gender and the country's economic development level: an inverse association was more common in studies of higher-income countries and a positive association was more common in lower-income countries, with stronger social patterning among women. Relatively few studies reported on lower-income countries, controlled for a comprehensive set of potential confounding variables, and/or attempted to assess causality through the use of quasi-experimental designs. Conclusions Future research should address these gaps to understand if the relationship between educational attainment and obesity may be causal, thus supporting education policy as a tool for obesity prevention. PMID:23889851
Psoas abscess and chronic Q fever: a contiguous or hematogenous complication? A case report and literature review.

PubMed

Galy, Adrien; Decousser, Jean Winoc; El-Anbassi, Sarra; Nebbad, Biba; Belzunce, Carine; Cochennec, Frédéric; Deforges, Lionel; Lepeule, Raphaël

2016-08-01

Few cases of psoas abscesses (PA) during chronic Q fever have been reported, and the route of transmission remains unknown. Here, we report a new case and have performed a systematic literature review to determinate the spreading route of this complication. Medline, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched. Local spreading was supported by endocarditis exclusion, evidence of vascular infection and absence of distantly infected sites. Among 275 retrieved references, 179 were initially rejected, and 85 additional references were rejected after full-text review. A total of 11 studies, reporting 13 cases, were included. Additionally, we reported one new case. A total of 14/14 cases reached Q fever vascular infection diagnostic criteria, and 7/14 provided adequate evidence supporting a causal relationship between Q fever vascular infection and PA. All patients presented aorta defects. In conclusion, Q fever PA results from the spreading of a local infection and occurs specifically in patients presenting a vascular graft or an abdominal aortic aneurysm.
ICSNPathway: identify candidate causal SNPs and pathways from genome-wide association study by one analytical framework.

PubMed

Zhang, Kunlin; Chang, Suhua; Cui, Sijia; Guo, Liyuan; Zhang, Liuyan; Wang, Jing

2011-07-01

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) is widely utilized to identify genes involved in human complex disease or some other trait. One key challenge for GWAS data interpretation is to identify causal SNPs and provide profound evidence on how they affect the trait. Currently, researches are focusing on identification of candidate causal variants from the most significant SNPs of GWAS, while there is lack of support on biological mechanisms as represented by pathways. Although pathway-based analysis (PBA) has been designed to identify disease-related pathways by analyzing the full list of SNPs from GWAS, it does not emphasize on interpreting causal SNPs. To our knowledge, so far there is no web server available to solve the challenge for GWAS data interpretation within one analytical framework. ICSNPathway is developed to identify candidate causal SNPs and their corresponding candidate causal pathways from GWAS by integrating linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis, functional SNP annotation and PBA. ICSNPathway provides a feasible solution to bridge the gap between GWAS and disease mechanism study by generating hypothesis of SNP → gene → pathway(s). The ICSNPathway server is freely available at http://icsnpathway.psych.ac.cn/.
Axioms for quantum mechanics: relativistic causality, retrocausality, and the existence of a classical limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohrlich, Daniel

Y. Aharonov and A. Shimony both conjectured that two axioms - relativistic causality (``no superluminal signalling'') and nonlocality - so nearly contradict each other that only quantum mechanics reconciles them. Can we indeed derive quantum mechanics, at least in part, from these two axioms? No: ``PR-box'' correlations show that quantum correlations are not the most nonlocal correlations consistent with relativistic causality. Here we replace ``nonlocality'' with ``retrocausality'' and supplement the axioms of relativistic causality and retrocausality with a natural and minimal third axiom: the existence of a classical limit, in which macroscopic observables commute. That is, just as quantum mechanics has a classical limit, so must any generalization of quantum mechanics. In this limit, PR-box correlations violaterelativistic causality. Generalized to all stronger-than-quantum bipartite correlations, this result is a derivation of Tsirelson's bound (a theorem of quantum mechanics) from the three axioms of relativistic causality, retrocausality and the existence of a classical limit. Although the derivation does not assume quantum mechanics, it points to the Hilbert space structure that underlies quantum correlations. I thank the John Templeton Foundation (Project ID 43297) and the Israel Science Foundation (Grant No. 1190/13) for support.
Testing the relationships between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in 24 African countries: a panel ARDL approach.

PubMed

Asongu, Simplice; El Montasser, Ghassen; Toumi, Hassen

2016-04-01

This study complements existing literature by examining the nexus between energy consumption (EC), CO2 emissions (CE), and economic growth (GDP; gross domestic product) in 24 African countries using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The following findings are established. First, there is a long-run relationship between EC, CE, and GDP. Second, a long-term effect from CE to GDP and EC is apparent, with reciprocal paths. Third, the error correction mechanisms are consistently stable. However, in cases of disequilibrium, only EC can be significantly adjusted to its long-run relationship. Fourth, there is a long-run causality running from GDP and CE to EC. Fifth, we find causality running from either CE or both CE and EC to GDP, and inverse causal paths are observable. Causality from EC to GDP is not strong, which supports the conservative hypothesis. Sixth, the causal direction from EC to GDP remains unobservable in the short term. By contrast, the opposite path is observable. There are also no short-run causalities from GDP, or EC, or EC, and GDP to EC. Policy implications are discussed.
Assessing Causality in the Association between Child Adiposity and Physical Activity Levels: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

PubMed Central

Richmond, Rebecca C.; Davey Smith, George; Ness, Andy R.; den Hoed, Marcel; McMahon, George; Timpson, Nicholas J.

2014-01-01

Background Cross-sectional studies have shown that objectively measured physical activity is associated with childhood adiposity, and a strong inverse dose–response association with body mass index (BMI) has been found. However, few studies have explored the extent to which this association reflects reverse causation. We aimed to determine whether childhood adiposity causally influences levels of physical activity using genetic variants reliably associated with adiposity to estimate causal effects. Methods and Findings The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children collected data on objectively assessed activity levels of 4,296 children at age 11 y with recorded BMI and genotypic data. We used 32 established genetic correlates of BMI combined in a weighted allelic score as an instrumental variable for adiposity to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on activity. In observational analysis, a 3.3 kg/m2 (one standard deviation) higher BMI was associated with 22.3 (95% CI, 17.0, 27.6) movement counts/min less total physical activity (p = 1.6×10−16), 2.6 (2.1, 3.1) min/d less moderate-to-vigorous-intensity activity (p = 3.7×10−29), and 3.5 (1.5, 5.5) min/d more sedentary time (p = 5.0×10−4). In Mendelian randomization analyses, the same difference in BMI was associated with 32.4 (0.9, 63.9) movement counts/min less total physical activity (p = 0.04) (∼5.3% of the mean counts/minute), 2.8 (0.1, 5.5) min/d less moderate-to-vigorous-intensity activity (p = 0.04), and 13.2 (1.3, 25.2) min/d more sedentary time (p = 0.03). There was no strong evidence for a difference between variable estimates from observational estimates. Similar results were obtained using fat mass index. Low power and poor instrumentation of activity limited causal analysis of the influence of physical activity on BMI. Conclusions Our results suggest that increased adiposity causes a reduction in physical activity in children and support research into the targeting of BMI in efforts to increase childhood activity levels. Importantly, this does not exclude lower physical activity also leading to increased adiposity, i.e., bidirectional causation. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24642734
A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees.

PubMed

Kaewanuchit, Chonticha; Muntaner, Carles; Isha, Nizam

2015-07-01

Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level.
Evaluation of the Association between Maternal Smoking, Childhood Obesity, and Metabolic Disorders: A National Toxicology Program Workshop Review

PubMed Central

Behl, Mamta; Rao, Deepa; Aagaard, Kjersti; Davidson, Terry L.; Levin, Edward D.; Slotkin, Theodore A.; Srinivasan, Supriya; Wallinga, David; White, Morris F.; Walker, Vickie R.; Thayer, Kristina A.

2012-01-01

Background: An emerging literature suggests that environmental chemicals may play a role in the development of childhood obesity and metabolic disorders, especially when exposure occurs early in life. Objective: Here we assess the association between these health outcomes and exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy as part of a broader effort to develop a research agenda to better understand the role of environmental chemicals as potential risk factors for obesity and metabolic disorders. Methods: PubMed was searched up to 8 March 2012 for epidemiological and experimental animal studies related to maternal smoking or nicotine exposure during pregnancy and childhood obesity or metabolic disorders at any age. A total of 101 studies—83 in humans and 18 in animals—were identified as the primary literature. Discussion: Current epidemiological data support a positive association between maternal smoking and increased risk of obesity or overweight in offspring. The data strongly suggest a causal relation, although the possibility that the association is attributable to unmeasured residual confounding cannot be completely ruled out. This conclusion is supported by findings from laboratory animals exposed to nicotine during development. The existing literature on human exposures does not support an association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and type 1 diabetes in offspring. Too few human studies have assessed outcomes related to type 2 diabetes or metabolic syndrome to reach conclusions based on patterns of findings. There may be a number of mechanistic pathways important for the development of aberrant metabolic outcomes following perinatal exposure to cigarette smoke, which remain largely unexplored. Conclusions: From a toxicological perspective, the linkages between maternal smoking during pregnancy and childhood overweight/obesity provide proof-of-concept of how early-life exposure to an environmental toxicant can be a risk factor for childhood obesity. PMID:23232494
The association between acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) and Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) - what is the evidence for causation?

PubMed

Dyda, Amalie; Stelzer-Braid, Sacha; Adam, Dillon; Chughtai, Abrar A; MacIntyre, C Raina

2018-01-01

BackgroundEnterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has historically been a sporadic disease, causing occasional small outbreaks of generally mild infection. In recent years, there has been evidence of an increase in EV-D68 infections globally. Large outbreaks of EV-D68, with thousands of cases, occurred in the United States, Canada and Europe in 2014. The outbreaks were associated temporally and geographically with an increase in clusters of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM).  Aims: We aimed to evaluate a causal association between EV-D68 and AFM.   Methods: Using data from the published and grey literature, we applied the Bradford Hill criteria, a set of nine principles applied to examine causality, to evaluate the relationship between EV-D68 and AFM. Based on available evidence, we defined the Bradford Hill Criteria as being not met, or met minimally, partially or fully.   Results: Available evidence applied to EV-D68 and AFM showed that six of the Bradford Hill criteria were fully met and two were partially met. The criterion of biological gradient was minimally met. The incidence of EV-D68 infections is increasing world-wide. Phylogenetic epidemiology showed diversification from the original Fermon and Rhyne strains since the year 2000, with evolution of a genetically distinct outbreak strain, clade B1. Clade B1, but not older strains, is associated with AFM and is neuropathic in animal models.   Conclusion: While more research is needed on dose-response relationship, application of the Bradford Hill criteria supported a causal relationship between EV-D68 and AFM.
The association between acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) and Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) – what is the evidence for causation?

PubMed Central

Dyda, Amalie; Stelzer-Braid, Sacha; Adam, Dillon; Chughtai, Abrar A; MacIntyre, C Raina

2018-01-01

Background Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has historically been a sporadic disease, causing occasional small outbreaks of generally mild infection. In recent years, there has been evidence of an increase in EV-D68 infections globally. Large outbreaks of EV-D68, with thousands of cases, occurred in the United States, Canada and Europe in 2014. The outbreaks were associated temporally and geographically with an increase in clusters of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Aims: We aimed to evaluate a causal association between EV-D68 and AFM.  Methods: Using data from the published and grey literature, we applied the Bradford Hill criteria, a set of nine principles applied to examine causality, to evaluate the relationship between EV-D68 and AFM. Based on available evidence, we defined the Bradford Hill Criteria as being not met, or met minimally, partially or fully.  Results: Available evidence applied to EV-D68 and AFM showed that six of the Bradford Hill criteria were fully met and two were partially met. The criterion of biological gradient was minimally met. The incidence of EV-D68 infections is increasing world-wide. Phylogenetic epidemiology showed diversification from the original Fermon and Rhyne strains since the year 2000, with evolution of a genetically distinct outbreak strain, clade B1. Clade B1, but not older strains, is associated with AFM and is neuropathic in animal models.  Conclusion: While more research is needed on dose–response relationship, application of the Bradford Hill criteria supported a causal relationship between EV-D68 and AFM. PMID:29386095
The causal nature of the association between neighborhood deprivation and drug abuse: a prospective national Swedish co-relative control study

PubMed Central

Kendler, K. S.; Ohlsson, H.; Sundquist, K.; Sundquist, J.

2014-01-01

Background Risk for drug abuse (DA) is strongly associated with neighborhood social deprivation (SD). However, the causal nature of this relationship is unclear. Method Three Swedish population-based cohorts were followed up over 5 years for incident registration of DA in medical, legal or pharmacy records. In each cohort, we examined the SD–DA association, controlling carefully for individual socio-economic status (SES) with multiple measures, in the entire sample and among pairs of first cousins, paternal and maternal half-siblings, full siblings and monozygotic (MZ) twins discordant for SD exposure. The number of informative relative pairs ranged from 6366 to 166208. Results In all cohorts, SD was prospectively related to risk for incident DA. In relative pairs discordant for SD exposure, the SD–DA association was similar to that seen in the entire population in cousins, half-siblings, full siblings and MZ twins. Eliminating subjects who were residentially unstable or had DA in the first two follow-up years did not alter this pattern. When divided by age, in the youngest groups, the SD–DA association was weaker in siblings than in the entire population. Conclusions Across three cohorts, controlling for individual SES and confounding familial factors, SD prospectively predicted risk for incident DA registration. These results support the hypothesis that the SD–DA association is in part causal and unlikely to result entirely from personal attributes, which both increase risk for DA and cause selection into high SD environments. At least part of the SD–DA association arises because exposure to SD causes an increased risk of DA. PMID:25055172
[Neurobiological determinism: questionable inferences on human freedom of choice and forensic criminal responsibility].

PubMed

Urbaniok, F; Hardegger, J; Rossegger, A; Endrass, J

2006-08-01

Several authors argue that criminal behavior is generally caused by neurobiological deficits. Based on this neurobiological perspective of assumed causality, the concept of free will is questioned, and the theory of neurobiological determinism of all human behavior is put forward, thus maintaining that human beings are not responsible for their actions, and consequently the principle of guilt should be given up in criminal law. In this context the controversial debate on determinism and indeterminism, which has been held for centuries, has flared up anew, especially within the science of criminal law. When critically examining the current state of research, it becomes apparent that the results do not support the existence of a universally valid neurobiological causality of criminal behavior, nor a theory of an absolute neurobiological determinism. Neither is complete determination of all phenomena in the universe--as maintained--the logical conclusion of the principle of causality, nor is it empirically confirmed. Analyzed methodically, it cannot be falsified, and thus, as a theory which cannot be empirically tested, it represents a dogma against which plausible objections can be made. The criticism of the concept of free will, and even more so of human accountability and criminal responsibility, is not put forward in a valid way. The principle of relative determinism--the evaluation of the degree of determinism of personality factors potentially reducing criminal responsibility, which includes concrete observations and analysis of behavior--thus remains a central and cogent approach to the assessment of criminal responsibility. To sum up, the theories proposed by some authors on the complete neurobiological determinism of human behavior, and the subsequent impossibility of individual responsibility and guilt, reveal both methodical misconception and a lack of empirical foundation.
There Are Indeed More Left-Handers Within the Autism Spectrum Disorder Compared with in the General Population, but the Many Mixed-Handers Is the More Interesting Finding.

PubMed

Rysstad, Anne Langseth; Pedersen, Arve Vorland

2018-03-28

Letter to the editor in response to Howard Kushner's claims that our data on non-right-handedness within the autism spectrum disorder were organized, by sleight of hand, so they would give a significant result that would support our desired conclusion. Here, we have re-categorized our data, and present evidence that there are indeed more left-handers within the ASD. Furthermore, we refute claims that we have misinterpreted our results in order to conclude about a causal link between left-handedness and ASD, and highlight our original suggestion that mixed-handedness, more specifically unclear handedness, is the bigger problem, and that our findings of a total 60% non-right-handedness was the more interesting finding.
Protecting the World From Secondhand Tobacco Smoke Exposure: Where Do We Stand and Where Do We Go From Here?

PubMed Central

Barnoya, Joaquin

2013-01-01

Introduction: Article 8 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control mandates all signatory countries to “protect citizens from exposure to tobacco smoke in workplaces, public transport and indoor public places.” Even though there has been great progress in the implementation of Article 8, still most of the world population remains exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS). In this article, we sought to summarize the research that supports Article 8, where do we stand, and current research gaps and future directions. Discussion: Secondhand smoke is an established cause of heart disease and several types of cancer. Additional research is needed to reach final conclusions for diseases where evidence is only suggestive of causality. The only solution to SHS exposure in public places is banning smoking indoors. Research on the gaming industry and nightclubs, particularly in developing countries, needs to be disseminated to support their inclusion in smoke-free laws. Aside from indoor bans, additional research is needed for outdoor and multiunit housing bans and in support of measures that protect children and other vulnerable populations. The impact of smoke-free laws on other health outcomes, besides heart disease and respiratory outcomes, is another area where further research is needed. Thirdhand smoke assessment and health effects are also likely to be a topic of further research. As new tobacco products emerge, evaluating SHS exposure and effects will be vital. Conclusions: Furthering research in support of Article 8 can contribute to reach the final goal of protecting everyone from SHS exposure. PMID:23072872
Assessing the causal role of adiposity on disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood: a Mendelian randomization analysis

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: Observational studies have shown that higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of developing disordered eating patterns. However, the causal direction of this relation remains ambiguous. Objective: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to infer the direction of causality between BMI and disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Design: MR analyses were conducted with a genetic score as an instrumental variable for BMI to assess the causal effect of BMI at age 7 y on disordered eating patterns at age 13 y with the use of data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) (n = 4473). To examine causality in the reverse direction, MR analyses were used to estimate the effect of the same disordered eating patterns at age 13 y on BMI at age 17 y via a split-sample approach in the ALSPAC. We also investigated the causal direction of the association between BMI and eating disorders (EDs) in adults via a two-sample MR approach and publically available genome-wide association study data. Results: MR results indicated that higher BMI at age 7 y likely causes higher levels of binge eating and overeating, weight and shape concerns, and weight-control behavior patterns in both males and females and food restriction in males at age 13 y. Furthermore, results suggested that higher levels of binge eating and overeating in males at age 13 y likely cause higher BMI at age 17 y. We showed no evidence of causality between BMI and EDs in adulthood in either direction. Conclusions: This study provides evidence to suggest a causal effect of higher BMI in childhood and increased risk of disordered eating at age 13 y. Furthermore, higher levels of binge eating and overeating may cause higher BMI in later life. These results encourage an exploration of the ways to break the causal chain between these complex phenotypes, which could inform and prevent disordered eating problems in adolescence. PMID:28747331
Assessing the causal role of adiposity on disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

PubMed

Reed, Zoe E; Micali, Nadia; Bulik, Cynthia M; Davey Smith, George; Wade, Kaitlin H

2017-09-01

Background: Observational studies have shown that higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of developing disordered eating patterns. However, the causal direction of this relation remains ambiguous. Objective: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to infer the direction of causality between BMI and disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Design: MR analyses were conducted with a genetic score as an instrumental variable for BMI to assess the causal effect of BMI at age 7 y on disordered eating patterns at age 13 y with the use of data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) ( n = 4473). To examine causality in the reverse direction, MR analyses were used to estimate the effect of the same disordered eating patterns at age 13 y on BMI at age 17 y via a split-sample approach in the ALSPAC. We also investigated the causal direction of the association between BMI and eating disorders (EDs) in adults via a two-sample MR approach and publically available genome-wide association study data. Results: MR results indicated that higher BMI at age 7 y likely causes higher levels of binge eating and overeating, weight and shape concerns, and weight-control behavior patterns in both males and females and food restriction in males at age 13 y. Furthermore, results suggested that higher levels of binge eating and overeating in males at age 13 y likely cause higher BMI at age 17 y. We showed no evidence of causality between BMI and EDs in adulthood in either direction. Conclusions: This study provides evidence to suggest a causal effect of higher BMI in childhood and increased risk of disordered eating at age 13 y. Furthermore, higher levels of binge eating and overeating may cause higher BMI in later life. These results encourage an exploration of the ways to break the causal chain between these complex phenotypes, which could inform and prevent disordered eating problems in adolescence.
Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Results Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings. Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. Conclusions Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong assumptions can be reversed following empirical testing. This approach is well-suited to dealing with complex systems, in particular where data are scarce. PMID:24314302
Evaluating Alcoholics Anonymous's effect on drinking in Project MATCH using cross-lagged regression panel analysis.

PubMed

Magura, Stephen; Cleland, Charles M; Tonigan, J Scott

2013-05-01

The objective of the study is to determine whether Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) participation leads to reduced drinking and problems related to drinking within Project MATCH (Matching Alcoholism Treatments to Client Heterogeneity), an existing national alcoholism treatment data set. The method used is structural equation modeling of panel data with cross-lagged partial regression coefficients. The main advantage of this technique for the analysis of AA outcomes is that potential reciprocal causation between AA participation and drinking behavior can be explicitly modeled through the specification of finite causal lags. For the outpatient subsample (n = 952), the results strongly support the hypothesis that AA attendance leads to increases in alcohol abstinence and reduces drinking/ problems, whereas a causal effect in the reverse direction is unsupported. For the aftercare subsample (n = 774), the results are not as clear but also suggest that AA attendance leads to better outcomes. Although randomized controlled trials are the surest means of establishing causal relations between interventions and outcomes, such trials are rare in AA research for practical reasons. The current study successfully exploited the multiple data waves in Project MATCH to examine evidence of causality between AA participation and drinking outcomes. The study obtained unique statistical results supporting the effectiveness of AA primarily in the context of primary outpatient treatment for alcoholism.

Family-Centered Prevention Ameliorates the Longitudinal Association of Poverty with Hippocampal and Amygdalar Volumes in Adulthood

PubMed Central

Brody, Gene H.; Gray, Joshua; Yu, Tianyi; Barton, Allen W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Galván, Adrianna; MacKillop, James; Windle, Michael; Chen, Edith; Miller, Gregory E.; Sweet, Lawrence H.

2016-01-01

Importance This study provides the first data showing that rural African Americans' participation, during childhood at age 11, in a preventive intervention designed to enhance supportive parenting ameliorates the association of poverty with hippocampal and amygdalar volumes during adulthood at age 25. Objective To determine whether participation in an efficacious prevention program designed to enhance supportive parenting for rural African American children will ameliorate the association between living in poverty and reduced hippocampal and amygdalar volumes that are evident at age 25. Design, Setting, and Participants In the rural southeastern United States, African American parents and their 11-year-old children were assigned randomly to the Strong African American Families (SAAF) program or to a control condition. Parents provided data used to calculate income-to-needs ratios when children were 11 to 13 and 16 to 18 years of age. When the children were 25 years of age, hippocampal and amygdalar volumes were measured using magnetic resonance imaging. Exposure Household poverty was measured by income-to-needs ratios. Main Outcomes and Measures Young adults' whole hippocampal, dentate gyrus and CA3 hippocampal subfields, and amygdalar volumes were assessed using magnetic resonance imaging. Results Years lived in poverty across ages 11 to 18 years forecast diminished left dentate gyrus and CA3 hippocampal subfields and left amygdalar volumes among young adults in the control condition but not among those who participated in SAAF. Conclusions and Relevance Studies suggest that supportive parenting may offset risks to brain development posed by exposure to poverty during childhood and adolescence. Prior to this study, it was less clear whether these findings reflected a causal process. In this study, we described how participation in a randomized, controlled trial designed to enhance supportive parenting ameliorated the association of years lived in poverty with left dentate gyrus and CA3 hippocampal subfields and left amygdalar volumes. These findings are consistent with a causal role for supportive parenting and suggest a strategy for narrowing social disparities. PMID:27893880
Identifying an indoor air exposure limit for formaldehyde considering both irritation and cancer hazards

PubMed Central

Golden, Robert

2011-01-01

Formaldehyde is a well-studied chemical and effects from inhalation exposures have been extensively characterized in numerous controlled studies with human volunteers, including asthmatics and other sensitive individuals, which provide a rich database on exposure concentrations that can reliably produce the symptoms of sensory irritation. Although individuals can differ in their sensitivity to odor and eye irritation, the majority of authoritative reviews of the formaldehyde literature have concluded that an air concentration of 0.3 ppm will provide protection from eye irritation for virtually everyone. A weight of evidence-based formaldehyde exposure limit of 0.1 ppm (100 ppb) is recommended as an indoor air level for all individuals for odor detection and sensory irritation. It has recently been suggested by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the National Toxicology Program (NTP), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) that formaldehyde is causally associated with nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) and leukemia. This has led US EPA to conclude that irritation is not the most sensitive toxic endpoint and that carcinogenicity should dictate how to establish exposure limits for formaldehyde. In this review, a number of lines of reasoning and substantial scientific evidence are described and discussed, which leads to a conclusion that neither point of contact nor systemic effects of any type, including NPC or leukemia, are causally associated with exposure to formaldehyde. This conclusion supports the view that the equivocal epidemiology studies that suggest otherwise are almost certainly flawed by identified or yet to be unidentified confounding variables. Thus, this assessment concludes that a formaldehyde indoor air limit of 0.1 ppm should protect even particularly susceptible individuals from both irritation effects and any potential cancer hazard. PMID:21635194
Urbanism and life satisfaction among the aged.

PubMed

Liang, J; Warfel, B L

1983-01-01

This study examines the impact of urbanism on the causal mechanisms by which life satisfaction is determined. Although the links between the type of community and life satisfaction have been the foci of many studies, the findings are by no means conclusive. Some have found that the rural elderly express greater satisfaction, others have not. Such a discrepancy may be due to (a) the neglect of other variables, (b) a lack of explicit causal specifications, and (c) the failure to distinguish main effects from interaction effects. In this study a causal model that incorporates urbanism as a polytomous variable and its interaction effects has been proposed. The model was evaluated by using four data sets with sample sizes ranging from 961 to 3,996. Urbanism was found to have indirect main effects as well as interaction effects on life satisfaction.
Transitive closure of subsumption and causal relations in a large ontology of radiological diagnosis.

PubMed

Kahn, Charles E

2016-06-01

The Radiology Gamuts Ontology (RGO)-an ontology of diseases, interventions, and imaging findings-was developed to aid in decision support, education, and translational research in diagnostic radiology. The ontology defines a subsumption (is_a) relation between more general and more specific terms, and a causal relation (may_cause) to express the relationship between disorders and their possible imaging manifestations. RGO incorporated 19,745 terms with their synonyms and abbreviations, 1768 subsumption relations, and 55,558 causal relations. Transitive closure was computed iteratively; it yielded 2154 relations over subsumption and 1,594,896 relations over causality. Five causal cycles were discovered, all with path length of no more than 5. The graph-theoretic metrics of in-degree and out-degree were explored; the most useful metric to prioritize modification of the ontology was found to be the product of the in-degree of transitive closure over subsumption and the out-degree of transitive closure over causality. Two general types of error were identified: (1) causal assertions that used overly general terms because they implicitly assumed an organ-specific context and (2) subsumption relations where a site-specific disorder was asserted to be a subclass of the general disorder. Transitive closure helped identify incorrect assertions, prioritized and guided ontology revision, and aided resources that applied the ontology's knowledge. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Autonomy Support as an Interpersonal Motivating Style: Is It Teachable?

PubMed

Reeve

1998-07-01

Students benefit when teachers support their autonomy. Recognizing this, the present study examined the motivating styles of beginning preservice teachers by asking two questions: (1) Do personality characteristics orient preservice teachers toward either an autonomy-supportive or controlling motivating style? and (2) Is the autonomy-supportive style teachable to preservice teachers? Study 1, which addressed the first question, relied on self-determination theory to identify and confirm causality orientation as one personality characteristic related to motivating style. Study 2, which addressed the second question, randomly assigned preservice teachers to receive training in either autonomy-supportive, controlling, or neutral instructional strategies. Results showed that the autonomy-supportive style was teachable. Autonomy-oriented preservice teachers (as measured by causality orientation) assimilated the information rather easily, while control-oriented preservice teachers accommodated the information only in proportion to the extent that they perceived it to be highly plausible and classroom applicable. The discussion relies on self-determination theory and the conceptual change literature to recommend how teacher certification programs can assist teachers-in-training develop an autonomy-supportive motivating style. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.
Causal Impact of Employee Work Perceptions on the Bottom Line of Organizations.

PubMed

Harter, James K; Schmidt, Frank L; Asplund, James W; Killham, Emily A; Agrawal, Sangeeta

2010-07-01

Perceptions of work conditions have proven to be important to the well-being of workers. However, customer loyalty, employee retention, revenue, sales, and profit are essential to the success of any business. It is known that these outcomes are correlated with employee attitudes and perceptions of work conditions, but the research into direction of causality has been inconclusive. Using a massive longitudinal database that included 2,178 business units in 10 large organizations, we found evidence supporting the causal impact of employee perceptions on these bottom-line measures; reverse causality of bottom-line measures on employee perceptions existed but was weaker. Managerial actions and practices can impact employee work conditions and employee perceptions of these conditions, thereby improving key outcomes at the organizational level. Perceptions of specific work conditions that engage employees in their work provide practical guidance in how best to manage people to obtain desired results. © The Author(s) 2010.
Additivity pretraining and cue competition effects: developmental evidence for a reasoning-based account of causal learning.

PubMed

Simms, Victoria; McCormack, Teresa; Beckers, Tom

2012-04-01

The effect of additivity pretraining on blocking has been taken as evidence for a reasoning account of human and animal causal learning. If inferential reasoning underpins this effect, then developmental differences in the magnitude of this effect in children would be expected. Experiment 1 examined cue competition effects in children's (4- to 5-year-olds and 6- to 7-year-olds) causal learning using a new paradigm analogous to the food allergy task used in studies of human adult causal learning. Blocking was stronger in the older than the younger children, and additivity pretraining only affected blocking in the older group. Unovershadowing was not affected by age or by pretraining. In experiment 2, levels of blocking were found to be correlated with the ability to answer questions that required children to reason about additivity. Our results support an inferential reasoning explanation of cue competition effects. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.
Causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia.

PubMed

Farhani, Sahbi; Ozturk, Ilhan

2015-10-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia over the period of 1971-2012. The long-run relationship is investigated by the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction method (ECM). The results of the analysis reveal a positive sign for the coefficient of financial development, suggesting that the financial development in Tunisia has taken place at the expense of environmental pollution. The Tunisian case also shows a positive monotonic relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions. This means that the results do not support the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. In addition, the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using Granger causality models and it concludes that financial development plays a vital role in the Tunisian economy.
Beliefs about intellectual disability among employees at a state facility and undergraduate students: An exploratory analysis.

PubMed

James, Jessica S

2018-06-27

Individuals with intellectual disability are subject to stigmatization, even among those providing services to them. Employees from an intermediate care facility (n = 97) and undergraduate students (n = 92) completed measures on their attitudes, beliefs of etiological causes and endorsement of helpful treatments and supports. Overall, participants reported few stigmatizing attitudes and high levels of support for interventions. Differences between employees and students emerged in regard to attitudes and causal beliefs, with employees reporting more support for sheltering and less endorsement of biomedical causes. Among students, those that reported knowing someone with intellectual disability reported less agreement with causal factors as well as differences in what supports were thought to be necessary or beneficial. Attitudes and beliefs are interrelated and while familiarity impacts these views, it does not necessarily lead to greater understanding or endorsement of treatments or supports. The effects of familiarity on attitudes and beliefs should continue to be explored. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
CO2 emissions, real output, energy consumption, trade, urbanization and financial development: testing the EKC hypothesis for the USA.

PubMed

Dogan, Eyup; Turkekul, Berna

2016-01-01

This study aims to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, real output (GDP), the square of real output (GDP(2)), trade openness, urbanization, and financial development in the USA for the period 1960-2010. The bounds testing for cointegration indicates that the analyzed variables are cointegrated. In the long run, energy consumption and urbanization increase environmental degradation while financial development has no effect on it, and trade leads to environmental improvements. In addition, this study does not support the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the USA because real output leads to environmental improvements while GDP(2) increases the levels of gas emissions. The results from the Granger causality test show that there is bidirectional causality between CO2 and GDP, CO2 and energy consumption, CO2 and urbanization, GDP and urbanization, and GDP and trade openness while no causality is determined between CO2 and trade openness, and gas emissions and financial development. In addition, we have enough evidence to support one-way causality running from GDP to energy consumption, from financial development to output, and from urbanization to financial development. In light of the long-run estimates and the Granger causality analysis, the US government should take into account the importance of trade openness, urbanization, and financial development in controlling for the levels of GDP and pollution. Moreover, it should be noted that the development of efficient energy policies likely contributes to lower CO2 emissions without harming real output.
The Role of Adiposity in Cardiometabolic Traits: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

PubMed Central

Ploner, Alexander; Fischer, Krista; Horikoshi, Momoko; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Ladenvall, Claes; Kals, Mart; Kuningas, Maris; Draisma, Harmen H. M.; Ried, Janina S.; van Zuydam, Natalie R.; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Sonestedt, Emily; Benyamin, Beben; Nelson, Christopher P.; Rivera, Natalia V.; Kristiansson, Kati; Shen, Huei-yi; Havulinna, Aki S.; Dehghan, Abbas; Donnelly, Louise A.; Kaakinen, Marika; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Robertson, Neil; de Bruijn, Renée F. A. G.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Amin, Najaf; Balmforth, Anthony J.; Braund, Peter S.; Doney, Alexander S. F.; Döring, Angela; Elliott, Paul; Esko, Tõnu; Franco, Oscar H.; Gretarsdottir, Solveig; Hartikainen, Anna-Liisa; Heikkilä, Kauko; Herzig, Karl-Heinz; Holm, Hilma; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; Hyppönen, Elina; Illig, Thomas; Isaacs, Aaron; Isomaa, Bo; Karssen, Lennart C.; Kettunen, Johannes; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Laatikainen, Tiina; Laitinen, Jaana; Lindgren, Cecilia; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Läärä, Esa; Rayner, Nigel W.; Männistö, Satu; Pouta, Anneli; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Ruokonen, Aimo; Savolainen, Markku J.; Sijbrands, Eric J. G.; Small, Kerrin S.; Smit, Jan H.; Steinthorsdottir, Valgerdur; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Taanila, Anja; Tobin, Martin D.; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Willems, Sara M.; Willemsen, Gonneke; Witteman, Jacqueline; Perola, Markus; Evans, Alun; Ferrières, Jean; Virtamo, Jarmo; Kee, Frank; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Arveiler, Dominique; Amouyel, Philippe; Ferrario, Marco M.; Brambilla, Paolo; Hall, Alistair S.; Heath, Andrew C.; Madden, Pamela A. F.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Whitfield, John B.; Jula, Antti; Knekt, Paul; Oostra, Ben; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.; Davey Smith, George; Kaprio, Jaakko; Samani, Nilesh J.; Gieger, Christian; Peters, Annette; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Boomsma, Dorret I.; de Geus, Eco J. C.; Tuomi, TiinaMaija; Power, Chris; Hammond, Christopher J.; Spector, Tim D.; Lind, Lars; Orho-Melander, Marju; Palmer, Colin Neil Alexander; Morris, Andrew D.; Groop, Leif; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Salomaa, Veikko; Vartiainen, Erkki; Hofman, Albert; Ripatti, Samuli; Metspalu, Andres; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Stefansson, Kari; Pedersen, Nancy L.; McCarthy, Mark I.; Ingelsson, Erik; Prokopenko, Inga

2013-01-01

Background The association between adiposity and cardiometabolic traits is well known from epidemiological studies. Whilst the causal relationship is clear for some of these traits, for others it is not. We aimed to determine whether adiposity is causally related to various cardiometabolic traits using the Mendelian randomization approach. Methods and Findings We used the adiposity-associated variant rs9939609 at the FTO locus as an instrumental variable (IV) for body mass index (BMI) in a Mendelian randomization design. Thirty-six population-based studies of individuals of European descent contributed to the analyses. Age- and sex-adjusted regression models were fitted to test for association between (i) rs9939609 and BMI (n = 198,502), (ii) rs9939609 and 24 traits, and (iii) BMI and 24 traits. The causal effect of BMI on the outcome measures was quantified by IV estimators. The estimators were compared to the BMI–trait associations derived from the same individuals. In the IV analysis, we demonstrated novel evidence for a causal relationship between adiposity and incident heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.19 per BMI-unit increase; 95% CI, 1.03–1.39) and replicated earlier reports of a causal association with type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and hypertension (odds ratio for IV estimator, 1.1–1.4; all p<0.05). For quantitative traits, our results provide novel evidence for a causal effect of adiposity on the liver enzymes alanine aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase and confirm previous reports of a causal effect of adiposity on systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting insulin, 2-h post-load glucose from the oral glucose tolerance test, C-reactive protein, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (all p<0.05). The estimated causal effects were in agreement with traditional observational measures in all instances except for type 2 diabetes, where the causal estimate was larger than the observational estimate (p = 0.001). Conclusions We provide novel evidence for a causal relationship between adiposity and heart failure as well as between adiposity and increased liver enzymes. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23824655
Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

2016-03-01

Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses.
The center for causal discovery of biomedical knowledge from big data.

PubMed

Cooper, Gregory F; Bahar, Ivet; Becich, Michael J; Benos, Panayiotis V; Berg, Jeremy; Espino, Jeremy U; Glymour, Clark; Jacobson, Rebecca Crowley; Kienholz, Michelle; Lee, Adrian V; Lu, Xinghua; Scheines, Richard

2015-11-01

The Big Data to Knowledge (BD2K) Center for Causal Discovery is developing and disseminating an integrated set of open source tools that support causal modeling and discovery of biomedical knowledge from large and complex biomedical datasets. The Center integrates teams of biomedical and data scientists focused on the refinement of existing and the development of new constraint-based and Bayesian algorithms based on causal Bayesian networks, the optimization of software for efficient operation in a supercomputing environment, and the testing of algorithms and software developed using real data from 3 representative driving biomedical projects: cancer driver mutations, lung disease, and the functional connectome of the human brain. Associated training activities provide both biomedical and data scientists with the knowledge and skills needed to apply and extend these tools. Collaborative activities with the BD2K Consortium further advance causal discovery tools and integrate tools and resources developed by other centers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Navigating the Neural Space in Search of the Neural Code.

PubMed

Jazayeri, Mehrdad; Afraz, Arash

2017-03-08

The advent of powerful perturbation tools, such as optogenetics, has created new frontiers for probing causal dependencies in neural and behavioral states. These approaches have significantly enhanced the ability to characterize the contribution of different cells and circuits to neural function in health and disease. They have shifted the emphasis of research toward causal interrogations and increased the demand for more precise and powerful tools to control and manipulate neural activity. Here, we clarify the conditions under which measurements and perturbations support causal inferences. We note that the brain functions at multiple scales and that causal dependencies may be best inferred with perturbation tools that interface with the system at the appropriate scale. Finally, we develop a geometric framework to facilitate the interpretation of causal experiments when brain perturbations do or do not respect the intrinsic patterns of brain activity. We describe the challenges and opportunities of applying perturbations in the presence of dynamics, and we close with a general perspective on navigating the activity space of neurons in the search for neural codes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Moral asymmetries in judgments of agency withstand ludicrous causal deviance.

PubMed

Sousa, Paulo; Holbrook, Colin; Swiney, Lauren

2015-01-01

Americans have been shown to attribute greater intentionality to immoral than to amoral actions in cases of causal deviance, that is, cases where a goal is satisfied in a way that deviates from initially planned means (e.g., a gunman wants to hit a target and his hand slips, but the bullet ricochets off a rock into the target). However, past research has yet to assess whether this asymmetry persists in cases of extreme causal deviance. Here, we manipulated the level of mild to extreme causal deviance of an immoral versus amoral act. The asymmetry in attributions of intentionality was observed at all but the most extreme level of causal deviance, and, as we hypothesized, was mediated by attributions of blame/credit and judgments of action performance. These findings are discussed as they support a multiple-concepts interpretation of the asymmetry, wherein blame renders a naïve concept of intentional action (the outcome matches the intention) more salient than a composite concept (the outcome matches the intention and was brought about by planned means), and in terms of their implications for cross-cultural research on judgments of agency.
Reconstructing constructivism: causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms, and the theory theory.

PubMed

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M

2012-11-01

We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and the psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists.
Drug Induced Liver Injury: Can Biomarkers Assist RUCAM in Causality Assessment?

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel; Danan, Gaby

2017-01-01

Drug induced liver injury (DILI) is a potentially serious adverse reaction in a few susceptible individuals under therapy by various drugs. Health care professionals facing DILI are confronted with a wealth of drug-unrelated liver diseases with high incidence and prevalence rates, which can confound the DILI diagnosis. Searching for alternative causes is a key element of RUCAM (Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method) to assess rigorously causality in suspected DILI cases. Diagnostic biomarkers as blood tests would be a great help to clinicians, regulators, and pharmaceutical industry would be more comfortable if, in addition to RUCAM, causality of DILI can be confirmed. High specificity and sensitivity are required for any diagnostic biomarker. Although some risk factors are available to evaluate liver safety of drugs in patients, no valid diagnostic or prognostic biomarker exists currently for idiosyncratic DILI when a liver injury occurred. Identifying a biomarker in idiosyncratic DILI requires detailed knowledge of cellular and biochemical disturbances leading to apoptosis or cell necrosis and causing leakage of specific products in blood. As idiosyncratic DILI is typically a human disease and hardly reproducible in animals, pathogenetic events and resulting possible biomarkers remain largely undisclosed. Potential new diagnostic biomarkers should be evaluated in patients with DILI and RUCAM-based established causality. In conclusion, causality assessment in cases of suspected idiosyncratic DILI is still best achieved using RUCAM since specific biomarkers as diagnostic blood tests that could enhance RUCAM results are not yet available. PMID:28398242
Using Genetic Variation to Explore the Causal Effect of Maternal Pregnancy Adiposity on Future Offspring Adiposity: A Mendelian Randomisation Study

PubMed Central

Felix, Janine F.; Gaillard, Romy; McMahon, George

2017-01-01

Background It has been suggested that greater maternal adiposity during pregnancy affects lifelong risk of offspring fatness via intrauterine mechanisms. Our aim was to use Mendelian randomisation (MR) to investigate the causal effect of intrauterine exposure to greater maternal body mass index (BMI) on offspring BMI and fat mass from childhood to early adulthood. Methods and Findings We used maternal genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to test the causal effect of maternal BMI in pregnancy on offspring fatness (BMI and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry [DXA] determined fat mass index [FMI]) in a MR approach. This was investigated, with repeat measurements, from ages 7 to 18 in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 2,521 to 3,720 for different ages). We then sought to replicate findings with results for BMI at age 6 in Generation R (n = 2,337 for replication sample; n = 6,057 for total pooled sample). In confounder-adjusted multivariable regression in ALSPAC, a 1 standard deviation (SD, equivalent of 3.7 kg/m2) increase in maternal BMI was associated with a 0.25 SD (95% CI 0.21–0.29) increase in offspring BMI at age 7, with similar results at later ages and when FMI was used as the outcome. A weighted genetic risk score was generated from 32 genetic variants robustly associated with BMI (minimum F-statistic = 45 in ALSPAC). The MR results using this genetic risk score as an IV in ALSPAC were close to the null at all ages (e.g., 0.04 SD (95% CI -0.21–0.30) at age 7 and 0.03 SD (95% CI -0.26–0.32) at age 18 per SD increase in maternal BMI), which was similar when a 97 variant generic risk score was used in ALSPAC. When findings from age 7 in ALSPAC were meta-analysed with those from age 6 in Generation R, the pooled confounder-adjusted multivariable regression association was 0.22 SD (95% CI 0.19–0.25) per SD increase in maternal BMI and the pooled MR effect (pooling the 97 variant score results from ALSPAC with the 32 variant score results from Generation R) was 0.05 SD (95%CI -0.11–0.21) per SD increase in maternal BMI (p-value for difference between the two results = 0.05). A number of sensitivity analyses exploring violation of the MR results supported our main findings. However, power was limited for some of the sensitivity tests and further studies with relevant data on maternal, offspring, and paternal genotype are required to obtain more precise (and unbiased) causal estimates. Conclusions Our findings provide little evidence to support a strong causal intrauterine effect of incrementally greater maternal BMI resulting in greater offspring adiposity. PMID:28118352
A review of the carcinogenic potential of glyphosate by four independent expert panels and comparison to the IARC assessment.

PubMed

Williams, Gary M; Aardema, Marilyn; Acquavella, John; Berry, Sir Colin; Brusick, David; Burns, Michele M; de Camargo, Joao Lauro Viana; Garabrant, David; Greim, Helmut A; Kier, Larry D; Kirkland, David J; Marsh, Gary; Solomon, Keith R; Sorahan, Tom; Roberts, Ashley; Weed, Douglas L

2016-09-01

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) published a monograph in 2015 concluding that glyphosate is "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A) based on limited evidence in humans and sufficient evidence in experimental animals. It was also concluded that there was strong evidence of genotoxicity and oxidative stress. Four Expert Panels have been convened for the purpose of conducting a detailed critique of the evidence in light of IARC's assessment and to review all relevant information pertaining to glyphosate exposure, animal carcinogenicity, genotoxicity, and epidemiologic studies. Two of the Panels (animal bioassay and genetic toxicology) also provided a critique of the IARC position with respect to conclusions made in these areas. The incidences of neoplasms in the animal bioassays were found not to be associated with glyphosate exposure on the basis that they lacked statistical strength, were inconsistent across studies, lacked dose-response relationships, were not associated with preneoplasia, and/or were not plausible from a mechanistic perspective. The overall weight of evidence from the genetic toxicology data supports a conclusion that glyphosate (including GBFs and AMPA) does not pose a genotoxic hazard and therefore, should not be considered support for the classification of glyphosate as a genotoxic carcinogen. The assessment of the epidemiological data found that the data do not support a causal relationship between glyphosate exposure and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma while the data were judged to be too sparse to assess a potential relationship between glyphosate exposure and multiple myeloma. As a result, following the review of the totality of the evidence, the Panels concluded that the data do not support IARC's conclusion that glyphosate is a "probable human carcinogen" and, consistent with previous regulatory assessments, further concluded that glyphosate is unlikely to pose a carcinogenic risk to humans.
Evolutionary genetics of host shifts in herbivorous insects: insights from the age of genomics.

PubMed

Vertacnik, Kim L; Linnen, Catherine R

2017-02-01

Adaptation to different host taxa is a key driver of insect diversification. Herbivorous insects are classic models for ecological and evolutionary research, but it is recent advances in sequencing, statistics, and molecular technologies that have cleared the way for investigations into the proximate genetic mechanisms underlying host shifts. In this review, we discuss how genome-scale data are revealing-at resolutions previously unimaginable-the genetic architecture of host-use traits, the causal loci underlying host shifts, and the predictability of host-use evolution. Collectively, these studies are providing novel insights into longstanding questions about host-use evolution. On the basis of this synthesis, we suggest that different host-use traits are likely to differ in their genetic architecture (number of causal loci and the nature of their genetic correlations) and genetic predictability (extent of gene or mutation reuse), indicating that any conclusions about the causes and consequences of host-use evolution will depend heavily on which host-use traits are investigated. To draw robust conclusions and identify general patterns in host-use evolution, we argue that investigation of diverse host-use traits and identification of causal genes and mutations should be the top priorities for future studies on the evolutionary genetics of host shifts. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

[Child maltreatment and new morbidity in pediatrics : Consequences for early child support and child protective interventions].

PubMed

Kindler, Heinz

2016-10-01

The effects of child maltreatment on children's chronic health conditions have become more visible during recent years. This is true for mental health problems as well as some chronic physical conditions, both summarized as new morbidity within pediatrics. As several Bradford Hill criteria (criteria from epidemiology for the determination of the causal nature of a statistical association) are met, the likely causal nature of underlying associations is discussed. Early family support may have the potential to modify such associations, although empirical evidence is lacking. At least for attachment-based interventions with foster carerers after child maltreatment, positive effects on child HPA axis dysregulation have been demonstrated.
A call for theory to support the use of causal-formative indicators: A commentary on Bollen and Diamantopoulos (2017).

PubMed

Hardin, Andrew

2017-09-01

In this issue, Bollen and Diamantopoulos (2017) defend causal-formative indicators against several common criticisms leveled by scholars who oppose their use. In doing so, the authors make several convincing assertions: Constructs exist independently from their measures; theory determines whether indicators cause or measure latent variables; and reflective and causal-formative indicators are both subject to interpretational confounding. However, despite being a well-reasoned, comprehensive defense of causal-formative indicators, no single article can address all of the issues associated with this debate. Thus, Bollen and Diamantopoulos leave a few fundamental issues unresolved. For example, how can researchers establish the reliability of indicators that may include measurement error? Moreover, how should researchers interpret disturbance terms that capture sources of influence related to both the empirical definition of the latent variable and to the theoretical definition of the construct? Relatedly, how should researchers reconcile the requirement for a census of causal-formative indicators with the knowledge that indicators are likely missing from the empirically estimated latent variable? This commentary develops 6 related research questions to draw attention to these fundamental issues, and to call for future research that can lead to the development of theory to guide the use of causal-formative indicators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Formalizing Neurath's ship: Approximate algorithms for online causal learning.

PubMed

Bramley, Neil R; Dayan, Peter; Griffiths, Thomas L; Lagnado, David A

2017-04-01

Higher-level cognition depends on the ability to learn models of the world. We can characterize this at the computational level as a structure-learning problem with the goal of best identifying the prevailing causal relationships among a set of relata. However, the computational cost of performing exact Bayesian inference over causal models grows rapidly as the number of relata increases. This implies that the cognitive processes underlying causal learning must be substantially approximate. A powerful class of approximations that focuses on the sequential absorption of successive inputs is captured by the Neurath's ship metaphor in philosophy of science, where theory change is cast as a stochastic and gradual process shaped as much by people's limited willingness to abandon their current theory when considering alternatives as by the ground truth they hope to approach. Inspired by this metaphor and by algorithms for approximating Bayesian inference in machine learning, we propose an algorithmic-level model of causal structure learning under which learners represent only a single global hypothesis that they update locally as they gather evidence. We propose a related scheme for understanding how, under these limitations, learners choose informative interventions that manipulate the causal system to help elucidate its workings. We find support for our approach in the analysis of 3 experiments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Enhancing causal interpretations of quality improvement interventions

PubMed Central

Cable, G

2001-01-01

In an era of chronic resource scarcity it is critical that quality improvement professionals have confidence that their project activities cause measured change. A commonly used research design, the single group pre-test/post-test design, provides little insight into whether quality improvement interventions cause measured outcomes. A re-evaluation of a quality improvement programme designed to reduce the percentage of bilateral cardiac catheterisations for the period from January 1991 to October 1996 in three catheterisation laboratories in a north eastern state in the USA was performed using an interrupted time series design with switching replications. The accuracy and causal interpretability of the findings were considerably improved compared with the original evaluation design. Moreover, the re-evaluation provided tangible evidence in support of the suggestion that more rigorous designs can and should be more widely employed to improve the causal interpretability of quality improvement efforts. Evaluation designs for quality improvement projects should be constructed to provide a reasonable opportunity, given available time and resources, for causal interpretation of the results. Evaluators of quality improvement initiatives may infrequently have access to randomised designs. Nonetheless, as shown here, other very rigorous research designs are available for improving causal interpretability. Unilateral methodological surrender need not be the only alternative to randomised experiments. Key Words: causal interpretations; quality improvement; interrupted time series design; implementation fidelity PMID:11533426
Investigating the possible causal association of smoking with depression and anxiety using Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis: the CARTA consortium

PubMed Central

Taylor, Amy E; Fluharty, Meg E; Bjørngaard, Johan H; Gabrielsen, Maiken Elvestad; Skorpen, Frank; Marioni, Riccardo E; Campbell, Archie; Engmann, Jorgen; Mirza, Saira Saeed; Loukola, Anu; Laatikainen, Tiina; Partonen, Timo; Kaakinen, Marika; Ducci, Francesca; Cavadino, Alana; Husemoen, Lise Lotte N; Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh; Jacobsen, Rikke Kart; Skaaby, Tea; Ebstrup, Jeanette Frost; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Minica, Camelia C; Vink, Jacqueline M; Willemsen, Gonneke; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Dale, Caroline E; Amuzu, Antoinette; Lennon, Lucy T; Lahti, Jari; Palotie, Aarno; Räikkönen, Katri; Wong, Andrew; Paternoster, Lavinia; Wong, Angelita Pui-Yee; Horwood, L John; Murphy, Michael; Johnstone, Elaine C; Kennedy, Martin A; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Nohr, Ellen A; Kuh, Diana; Kivimaki, Mika; Eriksson, Johan G; Morris, Richard W; Casas, Juan P; Preisig, Martin; Boomsma, Dorret I; Linneberg, Allan; Power, Chris; Hyppönen, Elina; Veijola, Juha; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Korhonen, Tellervo; Tiemeier, Henning; Kumari, Meena; Porteous, David J; Hayward, Caroline; Romundstad, Pål R; Smith, George Davey; Munafò, Marcus R

2014-01-01

Objectives To investigate whether associations of smoking with depression and anxiety are likely to be causal, using a Mendelian randomisation approach. Design Mendelian randomisation meta-analyses using a genetic variant (rs16969968/rs1051730) as a proxy for smoking heaviness, and observational meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress. Participants Current, former and never smokers of European ancestry aged ≥16 years from 25 studies in the Consortium for Causal Analysis Research in Tobacco and Alcohol (CARTA). Primary outcome measures Binary definitions of depression, anxiety and psychological distress assessed by clinical interview, symptom scales or self-reported recall of clinician diagnosis. Results The analytic sample included up to 58 176 never smokers, 37 428 former smokers and 32 028 current smokers (total N=127 632). In observational analyses, current smokers had 1.85 times greater odds of depression (95% CI 1.65 to 2.07), 1.71 times greater odds of anxiety (95% CI 1.54 to 1.90) and 1.69 times greater odds of psychological distress (95% CI 1.56 to 1.83) than never smokers. Former smokers also had greater odds of depression, anxiety and psychological distress than never smokers. There was evidence for positive associations of smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress (ORs per cigarette per day: 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04) and 1.02 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.03) respectively). In Mendelian randomisation analyses, there was no strong evidence that the minor allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with depression (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05), anxiety (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.07) or psychological distress (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.06) in current smokers. Results were similar for former smokers. Conclusions Findings from Mendelian randomisation analyses do not support a causal role of smoking heaviness in the development of depression and anxiety. PMID:25293386
Education and coronary heart disease: mendelian randomisation study.

PubMed

Tillmann, Taavi; Vaucher, Julien; Okbay, Aysu; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Malyutina, Sofia; Hartwig, Fernando Pires; Fischer, Krista; Veronesi, Giovanni; Palmer, Tom; Bowden, Jack; Davey Smith, George; Bobak, Martin; Holmes, Michael V

2017-08-30

Objective To determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Design Mendelian randomisation study, using genetic data as proxies for education to minimise confounding. Setting The main analysis used genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), comprising 112 studies from predominantly high income countries. Findings from mendelian randomisation analyses were then compared against results from traditional observational studies (164 170 participants). Finally, genetic data from six additional consortia were analysed to investigate whether longer education can causally alter the common cardiovascular risk factors. Participants The main analysis was of 543 733 men and women (from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), predominantly of European origin. Exposure A one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (3.6 years of additional schooling), measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education. Main outcome measure Combined fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D). Results Genetic predisposition towards 3.6 years of additional education was associated with a one third lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.77; P=3×10 -8 ). This was comparable to findings from traditional observational studies (prevalence odds ratio 0.73, 0.68 to 0.78; incidence odds ratio 0.80, 0.76 to 0.83). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with a causal interpretation in which major bias from genetic pleiotropy was unlikely, although this remains an untestable possibility. Genetic predisposition towards longer education was additionally associated with less smoking, lower body mass index, and a favourable blood lipid profile. Conclusions This mendelian randomisation study found support for the hypothesis that low education is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Potential mechanisms could include smoking, body mass index, and blood lipids. In conjunction with the results from studies with other designs, these findings suggest that increasing education may result in substantial health benefits.
Education and coronary heart disease: mendelian randomisation study

PubMed Central

Vaucher, Julien; Okbay, Aysu; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Malyutina, Sofia; Hartwig, Fernando Pires; Fischer, Krista; Veronesi, Giovanni; Palmer, Tom; Bowden, Jack; Davey Smith, George; Bobak, Martin; Holmes, Michael V

2017-01-01

Objective To determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Design Mendelian randomisation study, using genetic data as proxies for education to minimise confounding. Setting The main analysis used genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), comprising 112 studies from predominantly high income countries. Findings from mendelian randomisation analyses were then compared against results from traditional observational studies (164 170 participants). Finally, genetic data from six additional consortia were analysed to investigate whether longer education can causally alter the common cardiovascular risk factors. Participants The main analysis was of 543 733 men and women (from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), predominantly of European origin. Exposure A one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (3.6 years of additional schooling), measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education. Main outcome measure Combined fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D). Results Genetic predisposition towards 3.6 years of additional education was associated with a one third lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.77; P=3×10−8). This was comparable to findings from traditional observational studies (prevalence odds ratio 0.73, 0.68 to 0.78; incidence odds ratio 0.80, 0.76 to 0.83). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with a causal interpretation in which major bias from genetic pleiotropy was unlikely, although this remains an untestable possibility. Genetic predisposition towards longer education was additionally associated with less smoking, lower body mass index, and a favourable blood lipid profile. Conclusions This mendelian randomisation study found support for the hypothesis that low education is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Potential mechanisms could include smoking, body mass index, and blood lipids. In conjunction with the results from studies with other designs, these findings suggest that increasing education may result in substantial health benefits. PMID:28855160
Non-causal spike filtering improves decoding of movement intention for intracortical BCIs

PubMed Central

Masse, Nicolas Y.; Jarosiewicz, Beata; Simeral, John D.; Bacher, Daniel; Stavisky, Sergey D.; Cash, Sydney S.; Oakley, Erin M.; Berhanu, Etsub; Eskandar, Emad; Friehs, Gerhard; Hochberg, Leigh R.; Donoghue, John P.

2014-01-01

Background Multiple types of neural signals are available for controlling assistive devices through brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). Intracortically-recorded spiking neural signals are attractive for BCIs because they can in principle provide greater fidelity of encoded information compared to electrocorticographic (ECoG) signals and electroencephalograms (EEGs). Recent reports show that the information content of these spiking neural signals can be reliably extracted simply by causally band-pass filtering the recorded extracellular voltage signals and then applying a spike detection threshold, without relying on “sorting” action potentials. New method We show that replacing the causal filter with an equivalent non-causal filter increases the information content extracted from the extracellular spiking signal and improves decoding of intended movement direction. This method can be used for real-time BCI applications by using a 4 ms lag between recording and filtering neural signals. Results Across 18 sessions from two people with tetraplegia enrolled in the BrainGate2 pilot clinical trial, we found that threshold crossing events extracted using this non-causal filtering method were significantly more informative of each participant’s intended cursor kinematics compared to threshold crossing events derived from causally filtered signals. This new method decreased the mean angular error between the intended and decoded cursor direction by 9.7° for participant S3, who was implanted 5.4 years prior to this study, and by 3.5° for participant T2, who was implanted 3 months prior to this study. Conclusions Non-causally filtering neural signals prior to extracting threshold crossing events may be a simple yet effective way to condition intracortically recorded neural activity for direct control of external devices through BCIs. PMID:25128256
Occupational safety management: the role of causal attribution.

PubMed

Gyekye, Seth Ayim

2010-12-01

The paper addresses the causal attribution theory, an old and well-established theme in social psychology which denotes the everyday, commonsense explanations that people use to explain events and the world around them. The attribution paradigm is considered one of the most appropriate analytical tools for exploratory and descriptive studies in social psychology and organizational literature. It affords the possibility of describing accident processes as objectively as possible and with as much detail as possible. Causal explanations are vital to the formal analysis of workplace hazards and accidents, as they determine how organizations act to prevent accident recurrence. Accordingly, they are regarded as fundamental and prerequisite elements for safety management policies. The paper focuses primarily on the role of causal attributions in occupational and industrial accident analyses and implementation of safety interventions. It thus serves as a review of the contribution of attribution theory to occupational and industrial accidents. It comprises six sections. The first section presents an introduction to the classic attribution theories, and the second an account of the various ways in which the attribution paradigm has been applied in organizational settings. The third and fourth sections review the literature on causal attributions and demographic and organizational variables respectively. The sources of attributional biases in social psychology and how they manifest and are identified in the causal explanations for industrial and occupational accidents are treated in the fifth section. Finally, conclusion and recommendations are presented. The recommendations are particularly important for the reduction of workplace accidents and associated costs. The paper touches on the need for unbiased causal analyses, belief in the preventability of accidents, and the imperative role of management in occupational safety management.
PPARα siRNA–Treated Expression Profiles Uncover the Causal Sufficiency Network for Compound-Induced Liver Hypertrophy

PubMed Central

Dai, Xudong; Souza, Angus T. De; Dai, Hongyue; Lewis, David L; Lee, Chang-kyu; Spencer, Andy G; Herweijer, Hans; Hagstrom, Jim E; Linsley, Peter S; Bassett, Douglas E; Ulrich, Roger G; He, Yudong D

2007-01-01

Uncovering pathways underlying drug-induced toxicity is a fundamental objective in the field of toxicogenomics. Developing mechanism-based toxicity biomarkers requires the identification of such novel pathways and the order of their sufficiency in causing a phenotypic response. Genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi) phenotypic screening has emerged as an effective tool in unveiling the genes essential for specific cellular functions and biological activities. However, eliciting the relative contribution of and sufficiency relationships among the genes identified remains challenging. In the rodent, the most widely used animal model in preclinical studies, it is unrealistic to exhaustively examine all potential interactions by RNAi screening. Application of existing computational approaches to infer regulatory networks with biological outcomes in the rodent is limited by the requirements for a large number of targeted permutations. Therefore, we developed a two-step relay method that requires only one targeted perturbation for genome-wide de novo pathway discovery. Using expression profiles in response to small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) against the gene for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α (Ppara), our method unveiled the potential causal sufficiency order network for liver hypertrophy in the rodent. The validity of the inferred 16 causal transcripts or 15 known genes for PPARα-induced liver hypertrophy is supported by their ability to predict non-PPARα–induced liver hypertrophy with 84% sensitivity and 76% specificity. Simulation shows that the probability of achieving such predictive accuracy without the inferred causal relationship is exceedingly small (p < 0.005). Five of the most sufficient causal genes have been previously disrupted in mouse models; the resulting phenotypic changes in the liver support the inferred causal roles in liver hypertrophy. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of defining pathways mediating drug-induced toxicity from siRNA-treated expression profiles. When combined with phenotypic evaluation, our approach should help to unleash the full potential of siRNAs in systematically unveiling the molecular mechanism of biological events. PMID:17335344
The Processes by which Perceived Autonomy Support in Physical Education Promotes Leisure-Time Physical Activity Intentions and Behavior: A Trans-Contextual Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hagger, Martin S.; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L. D.; Culverhouse, Trudi; Biddle, Stuart J. H.

2003-01-01

Model proposes that young people's perceived autonomy support in physical education will affect their perceived locus of causality, intentions, and physical activity behavior in leisure time. Results support the trans-contextual model indicating that perceived autonomy support in an educational context influences motivation in a leisure-time…
Strengthening Causal Estimates for Links Between Spanking and Children's Externalizing Behavior Problems.

PubMed

Gershoff, Elizabeth T; Sattler, Kierra M P; Ansari, Arya

2018-01-01

Establishing causal links when experiments are not feasible is an important challenge for psychology researchers. The question of whether parents' spanking causes children's externalizing behavior problems poses such a challenge because randomized experiments of spanking are unethical, and correlational studies cannot rule out potential selection factors. This study used propensity score matching based on the lifetime prevalence and recent incidence of spanking in a large and nationally representative sample ( N = 12,112) as well as lagged dependent variables to get as close to causal estimates outside an experiment as possible. Whether children were spanked at the age of 5 years predicted increases in externalizing behavior problems by ages 6 and 8, even after the groups based on spanking prevalence or incidence were matched on a range of sociodemographic, family, and cultural characteristics and children's initial behavior problems. These statistically rigorous methods yield the conclusion that spanking predicts a deterioration of children's externalizing behavior over time.
Predicting What Will Happen When You Intervene.

PubMed

Cartwright, Nancy; Hardie, Jeremy

2017-01-01

This paper offers some rules of thumb that practicing social workers can use for case studies that aim to construct, albeit not fully and never entirely reliably, models designed to help predict what will happen if they intervene in specific ways to help this particular client, here and now. We call these 'ex ante case-specific causal models'. 'Ex ante' because they are for before-the-fact prediction of what the likely effects of proposed actions are. 'Case-specific' because we are not concerned with studies that provide evidence for some general conclusion but rather with using what general and local knowledge one can get to predict what will happen to a specific client in the real settings in which they live. 'Causal' because this kind of case study aims to trace out as best possible the web of causal processes that will be responsible for what happens. In this sense our case studies resemble post facto realist evaluations.
A Decision Support Framework For Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

EPA Science Inventory

We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environ...
Theorising and testing environmental pathways to behaviour change: natural experimental study of the perception and use of new infrastructure to promote walking and cycling in local communities

PubMed Central

Panter, Jenna; Ogilvie, David

2015-01-01

Objective Some studies have assessed the effectiveness of environmental interventions to promote physical activity, but few have examined how such interventions work. We investigated the environmental mechanisms linking an infrastructural intervention with behaviour change. Design Natural experimental study. Setting Three UK municipalities (Southampton, Cardiff and Kenilworth). Participants Adults living within 5 km of new walking and cycling infrastructure. Intervention Construction or improvement of walking and cycling routes. Exposure to the intervention was defined in terms of residential proximity. Outcome measures Questionnaires at baseline and 2-year follow-up assessed perceptions of the supportiveness of the environment, use of the new infrastructure, and walking and cycling behaviours. Analysis proceeded via factor analysis of perceptions of the physical environment (step 1) and regression analysis to identify plausible pathways involving physical and social environmental mediators and refine the intervention theory (step 2) to a final path analysis to test the model (step 3). Results Participants who lived near and used the new routes reported improvements in their perceptions of provision and safety. However, path analysis (step 3, n=967) showed that the effects of the intervention on changes in time spent walking and cycling were largely (90%) explained by a simple causal pathway involving use of the new routes, and other pathways involving changes in environmental cognitions explained only a small proportion of the effect. Conclusions Physical improvement of the environment itself was the key to the effectiveness of the intervention, and seeking to change people's perceptions may be of limited value. Studies of how interventions lead to population behaviour change should complement those concerned with estimating their effects in supporting valid causal inference. PMID:26338837
Motivation and burnout among top amateur rugby players.

PubMed

Cresswell, Scott L; Eklund, Robert C

2005-03-01

Self-determination theory has proven to be a useful theoretical explanation of the occurrence of ill-being on a variety of accounts. Self-determination theory may also provide a useful explanation of the occurrence of athlete burnout. To date, limited evidence exists to support links between motivation and burnout. To examine relationships and potential causal directions among burnout and types of motivation differing in degree of self-determination. Data were collected on burnout using the Athlete Burnout Questionnaire and Sport Motivation Scale from 392 top amateur male rugby players. Structural equation modeling procedures were employed to evaluate a measurement model and three conceptually grounded structural models. One conceptual model specified concomitant (noncausal) relationships between burnout and motivations varying in self-determination. The other conceptual models specified causal pathways between burnout and the three motivation variables considered in the investigation (i.e., intrinsic motivation, external regulation, and amotivation). Within the models, amotivation, the least self-determined type of motivation, had a large positive association with burnout. Externally regulated motivation had trivial and nonsignificant relationships with burnout. Self-determined forms of motivation (i.e., intrinsic motivation) exhibited significant negative associations with burnout. Overall the results support the potential utility of a self-determination theory explanation of burnout. As all models displayed reasonable and comparable fits, further research is required to establish the nature (concomitant vs directional causal vs reciprocal causal) of the relationship between burnout and motivation.
How people explain their own and others’ behavior: a theory of lay causal explanations

PubMed Central

Böhm, Gisela; Pfister, Hans-Rüdiger

2015-01-01

A theoretical model is proposed that specifies lay causal theories of behavior; and supporting experimental evidence is presented. The model’s basic assumption is that different types of behavior trigger different hypotheses concerning the types of causes that may have brought about the behavior. Seven categories are distinguished that are assumed to serve as both behavior types and explanation types: goals, dispositions, temporary states such as emotions, intentional actions, outcomes, events, and stimulus attributes. The model specifies inference rules that lay people use when explaining behavior (actions are caused by goals; goals are caused by higher order goals or temporary states; temporary states are caused by dispositions, stimulus attributes, or events; outcomes are caused by actions, temporary states, dispositions, stimulus attributes, or events; events are caused by dispositions or preceding events). Two experiments are reported. Experiment 1 showed that free-response explanations followed the assumed inference rules. Experiment 2 demonstrated that explanations which match the inference rules are generated faster and more frequently than non-matching explanations. Together, the findings support models that incorporate knowledge-based aspects into the process of causal explanation. The results are discussed with respect to their implications for different stages of this process, such as the activation of causal hypotheses and their subsequent selection, as well as with respect to social influences on this process. PMID:25741306
Small systems and regulator dependence in relativistic hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaliński, Michał

2016-10-01

Consistent theories of hydrodynamics necessarily include nonhydrodynamic modes, which can be viewed as a regulator necessary to ensure causality. Under many circumstances the choice of regulator is not relevant, but this is not always the case. In particular, for sufficiently small systems (such as those arising in pA or pp collisions) such dependence may be inevitable. We address this issue in the context of the modern version of Müller-Israel-Stewart theory of relativistic hydrodynamics. In this case, by demanding that the nonhydrodynamic modes do not dominate, we find that regulator dependence becomes inevitable only for multiplicities d N /d Y of the order of a few. This conclusion supports earlier studies based on hydrodynamic simulations of small systems, at the same time providing a simple physical picture of how hydrodynamics can be reliable even in such seemingly extreme conditions.
The causal role of fatigue in the stress-perceived health relationship: a MetroNet study.

PubMed

Maghout-Juratli, Sham; Janisse, James; Schwartz, Kendra; Arnetz, Bengt B

2010-01-01

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 4 primary care MetroNet centers in metropolitan Detroit. Our objective was to describe the causal role of fatigue in the relationship among stress, stress resiliency, and perceived health in primary care. Fatigue is a public health problem that has been linked to stress and poor health. The causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health is unknown. Four hundred surveys were distributed to adult patients in 4 primary care centers in metropolitan Detroit between 2006 and 2007. Internal consistency reliabilities and principal factor analyses were calculated for the key psychological scales. Perceived health is the primary outcome. Path models were used to study the relationship among stress, fatigue, and perceived health. We also modeled the impact of select stress resiliency factors including sleep, recovery, and social support. Of the 400 distributed surveys, 315 (78.7%) had a response rate of 70% or more and were included in the analysis. Respondents were predominantly middle aged (median age, 43 years); female (58.7%); and African American (52.0%). The majority worked full time (56.5%); did not have a college degree (77.7%); and were not married (55.2%). Fatigue was reported by 59% of respondents, 42.7% of which was unexplained. The path model supported the causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health. The positive effects of sleep, recovery, and social support on fatigue, stress, and perceived health were validated. Fatigue was common in this metropolitan primary care environment and completely mediated the relationship between stress and poor perceived health. Therefore, stress, when significant enough to cause fatigue, may lead to poor health.
Microrandomized trials: An experimental design for developing just-in-time adaptive interventions.

PubMed

Klasnja, Predrag; Hekler, Eric B; Shiffman, Saul; Boruvka, Audrey; Almirall, Daniel; Tewari, Ambuj; Murphy, Susan A

2015-12-01

This article presents an experimental design, the microrandomized trial, developed to support optimization of just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs). JITAIs are mHealth technologies that aim to deliver the right intervention components at the right times and locations to optimally support individuals' health behaviors. Microrandomized trials offer a way to optimize such interventions by enabling modeling of causal effects and time-varying effect moderation for individual intervention components within a JITAI. The article describes the microrandomized trial design, enumerates research questions that this experimental design can help answer, and provides an overview of the data analyses that can be used to assess the causal effects of studied intervention components and investigate time-varying moderation of those effects. Microrandomized trials enable causal modeling of proximal effects of the randomized intervention components and assessment of time-varying moderation of those effects. Microrandomized trials can help researchers understand whether their interventions are having intended effects, when and for whom they are effective, and what factors moderate the interventions' effects, enabling creation of more effective JITAIs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

SHAME AND GUILT-PRONENESS AS MEDIATORS OF ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN GENERAL CAUSALITY ORIENTATIONS AND DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMS

PubMed Central

YOUNG, CHELSIE M.; NEIGHBORS, CLAYTON; DIBELLO, ANGELO M.; TRAYLOR, ZACHARY K.; TOMKINS, MARY

2017-01-01

The present study examined the roles of shame- and guilt-proneness as mediators of associations between general causality orientations and depressive symptoms. We expected autonomy would be associated with less depressive symptoms based on higher guilt-proneness and lower shame-proneness, whereas control would be associated with more depressive symptoms based on lower guilt-proneness and higher shame-proneness. Undergraduates (N = 354) completed assessments of general causality orientations, shame- and guilt-proneness, and depressive symptoms in exchange for extra credit. Results of mediation analyses were generally supportive of the framework indicating that shame- and guilt-proneness mediate associations between self-determination and depressive symptoms. Autonomy was indirectly associated with less depressive symptoms through positive associations with guilt-proneness, in spite of unexpected positive associations with shame-proneness. Control and impersonal orientation were indirectly associated with more depressive symptoms through positive associations with shame-proneness. Results extend previous research relating self-determination to mental health in providing preliminary support suggesting that individual differences in self-determination facilitate differential tendencies in experiencing guilt and shame. PMID:28344381
Anxiety Disorders and Sensory Over-Responsivity in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Is There a Causal Relationship?

PubMed Central

Ben-Sasson, Ayelet

2010-01-01

Anxiety disorders and sensory over-responsivity (SOR) are common in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), and there is evidence for an association between these two conditions. Currently, it is unclear what causal mechanisms may exist between SOR and anxiety. We propose three possible theories to explain the association between anxiety and SOR: (a) SOR is caused by anxiety; (b) Anxiety is caused by SOR; or (c) SOR and anxiety are causally unrelated but are associated through a common risk factor or diagnostic overlap. In this paper, we examine support for each theory in the existing anxiety, autism, and neuroscience literature, and discuss how each theory informs choice of interventions and implications for future studies. PMID:20383658
The Relationship between Motor Skills, Perceived Social Support, and Internalizing Problems in a Community Adolescent Sample

PubMed Central

Mancini, Vincent O.; Rigoli, Daniela; Heritage, Brody; Roberts, Lynne D.; Piek, Jan P.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Poor motor skills are associated with a range of psychosocial consequences, including internalizing (anxious and depressive) symptoms. The Elaborated Environmental Stress Hypothesis provides a causal framework to explain this association. The framework posits that motor skills impact internalizing problems through an indirect effect via perceived social support. However, empirical evaluation is required. We examined whether motor skills had an indirect effect on anxious and depressive symptoms via perceived family support domains. Methods: This study used a community sample of 93 adolescents (12–16 years). Participants completed measures of motor skills, perceived social support across three dimensions (family, friend, and significant other), depressive symptoms, and anxious symptoms. Age, gender, verbal IQ, and ADHD symptoms were included as control variables. Results: Regression analysis using PROCESS revealed that motor skills had an indirect effect on depressive symptoms via perceived family support, but not by perceived friend support or significant other support. The negative association between motor skills and anxious symptoms was not mediated by any perceived social support domain. Conclusions: Findings are consistent with previous literature indicating an association between motor skills and internalizing problems. However, we identified a different pattern of relationships across anxious and depressive symptoms. While anxiety and depressive symptoms were highly correlated, motor skills had an indirect effect on depressive symptoms via perceived family support only. Our findings highlight the importance of family support as a potential protective factor in the onset of depressive symptoms. This study provides partial support for the Elaborated Environmental Stress Hypothesis, however further research is required. PMID:27148149
CauseMap: fast inference of causality from complex time series.

PubMed

Maher, M Cyrus; Hernandez, Ryan D

2015-01-01

Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data. Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM), a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations). Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens' Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement CCM in Julia, a high-performance programming language designed for facile technical computing. Our software package, CauseMap, is platform-independent and freely available as an official Julia package. Conclusions. CauseMap is an efficient implementation of a state-of-the-art algorithm for detecting causality from time series data. We believe this tool will be a valuable resource for biomedical research and personalized medicine.
Summary of 1968-1970 multidisciplinary accident investigation reports. Volume 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-08-01

In June 1971, Volume 1 of a two-volume series summarizing the causal factors, conclusions and recommendations which emanated from various in-depth accident reports was published. This first volume contained a listing of these factors according to tea...
Cross-lagged relationships between workplace demands, control, support, and sleep problems.

PubMed

Hanson, Linda L Magnusson; Åkerstedt, Torbjörn; Näswall, Katharina; Leineweber, Constanze; Theorell, Töres; Westerlund, Hugo

2011-10-01

Sleep problems are experienced by a large part of the population. Work characteristics are potential determinants, but limited longitudinal evidence is available to date, and reverse causation is a plausible alternative. This study examines longitudinal, bidirectional relationships between work characteristics and sleep problems. Prospective cohort/two-wave panel. Sweden. 3065 working men and women approximately representative of the Swedish workforce who responded to the 2006 and 2008 waves of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH). N/A. Bidirectional relationships between, on the one hand, workplace demands, decision authority, and support, and, on the other hand, sleep disturbances (reflecting lack of sleep continuity) and awakening problems (reflecting feelings of being insufficiently restored), were investigated by structural equation modeling. All factors were modeled as latent variables and adjusted for gender, age, marital status, education, alcohol consumption, and job change. Concerning sleep disturbances, the best fitting models were the "forward" causal model for demands and the "reverse" causal model for support. Regarding awakening problems, reciprocal models fitted the data best. Cross-lagged analyses indicates a weak relationship between demands at Time 1 and sleep disturbances at Time 2, a "reverse" relationship from support T1 to sleep disturbances T2, and bidirectional associations between work characteristics and awakening problems. In contrast to an earlier study on demands, control, sleep quality, and fatigue, this study suggests reverse and reciprocal in addition to the commonly hypothesized causal relationships between work characteristics and sleep problems based on a 2-year time lag.
A review of protective factors and causal mechanisms that enhance the mental health of Indigenous Circumpolar youth

PubMed Central

MacDonald, Joanna Petrasek; Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Ross, Nancy A.

2013-01-01

Objectives To review the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Study design A systematic literature review of peer-reviewed English-language research was conducted to systematically examine the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Methods This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with elements of a realist review. From 160 records identified in the initial search of 3 databases, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were retained for full review. Data were extracted using a codebook to organize and synthesize relevant information from the articles. Results More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social environment, which interacts with factors at the individual level to enhance resilience. An emphasis on the roles of cultural and land-based activities, history, and language, as well as on the importance of social and family supports, also emerged throughout the literature. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social environment, which interacts with factors at the individual level to enhance resilience. An emphasis on the roles of cultural and land-based activities, history, and language, as well as on the importance of social and family supports, also emerged throughout the literature. Conclusions Healthy communities and families foster and support youth who are resilient to mental health challenges and able to adapt and cope with multiple stressors, be they social, economic, or environmental. Creating opportunities and environments where youth can successfully navigate challenges and enhance their resilience can in turn contribute to fostering healthy Circumpolar communities. Looking at the role of new social media in the way youth communicate and interact is one way of understanding how to create such opportunities. Youth perspectives of mental health programmes are crucial to developing appropriate mental health support and meaningful engagement of youth can inform locally appropriate and culturally relevant mental health resources, programmes and community resilience strategies. PMID:24350066
The Self-Esteem, Perceived Social Support and Hopelessness in Adolescents: The Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savi Cakar, Firdevs; Karatas, Zeynep

2012-01-01

In this study, a developed model to explain a causal relationship between adolescent's self-esteem, perceived social support and hopelessness is tested. The purpose of the study is to explore the relationship between self-esteem, perceived social support and hopelessness in adolescents. A total of 257 adolescents, including 143 female and 114…
Understanding Students' Experiments--What Kind of Support Do They Need in Inquiry Tasks?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnold, Julia Caroline; Kremer, Kerstin; Mayer, Jürgen

2014-01-01

Inquiry learning is a widely recognized method for fostering inquiry competence in science education. Nevertheless, there is discussion about how to best support students while working on inquiry tasks (in this case: experiments on causal relationships). To identify the kind of support students need in order to design experiments in upper grades,…
A Discordant Monozygotic Twin Design Shows Blunted Cortisol Reactivity Among Bullied Children

PubMed Central

Ouellet-Morin, Isabelle; Danese, Andrea; Bowes, Lucy; Shakoor, Sania; Ambler, Antony; Pariante, Carmine M.; Papadopoulos, Andrew S.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Arseneault, Louise

2013-01-01

Objective Childhood adverse experiences are known to engender persistent changes in stress-related systems and brain structures involved in mood, cognition, and behavior in animal models. Uncertainty remains about the causal effect of early stressful experiences on physiological response to stress in human beings, as the impact of these experiences has rarely been investigated while controlling for both genetic and shared environmental influences. Method We tested whether bullying victimization, a repeated adverse experience in childhood, influences cortisol responses to a psychosocial stress test (PST) using a discordant monozygotic (MZ) twin design. Thirty pairs (43.3% males) of 12-year-old MZ twins discordant for bullying victimization were identified in the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally representative 1994–1995 cohort of families with twins. Results Bullied and nonbullied MZ twins showed distinct patterns of cortisol secretion after the PST. Specifically, bullied twins exhibited a blunted cortisol response compared with their nonbullied MZ co-twins, who showed the expected increase. This difference in cortisol response to stress could not be attributed to children's genetic makeup, their familial environments, pre-existing and concomitant individual factors, or the perception of stress and emotional response to the PST. Conclusion Results from this natural experiment provide support for a causal effect of adverse childhood experiences on the neuroendocrine response to stress. PMID:21621141
Childhood physical punishment and the onset of drinking problems: evidence from metropolitan China

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hui G.; Anthony, James C.; Huang, Yuequin; Lee, Sing; Liu, Zhaorui; He, Yanling

2011-01-01

Background Evidence in support of a suspected causal association linking childhood physical punishment (CPP) and later alcoholic beverage-related disturbances has been found in metropolitan China. Here, the focus shifts to the CPP association with the estimated risk of starting to drink, having the first drinking problem, and transitioning from first drink to the first drinking problem. Methods Data are from the World Mental Health Surveys-metropolitan China study, with representative samples of adult household residents living in two metropolitan cities, Beijing and Shanghai. Recalled information was available for early life experiences (including CPP, other childhood adversities, and parental alcohol and drug problems), as well as the onset age of drinking and drinking problems. Survival analyses were used to estimate the hazard ratio. A structural equation modeling approach was used to control for other inter-correlated childhood adversities. Results Cox proportional hazards modeling discloses statistically robust associations linking CPP with drinking and drinking problems, as well as more rapid transitions from first drink to first drinking problem, even after accounting for other childhood adversities and parental drinking problems. These associations cannot be attributed to a more general noxious family environment. Conclusions These results lay a foundation for future experimental studies on the possible causal relationship linking CPP with the onset of drinking problems and the transition from drinking to drinking problems. PMID:21474254
Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model

PubMed Central

Young, Gerald

2015-01-01

Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved) that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 [Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; (1)]. However, network approaches to symptom interaction [i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., (2), for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)] are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth non-linear dynamical systems theory (NLDST). The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (3) to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning) and universal (e.g., causal) processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments. PMID:26635639
Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H.M.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P.; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S.; de Bruijn, Renée F.A.G.; Willems, Sara M.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G.; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S.; Moreno, Luis A.; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W.G.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H.; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Franco, Oscar H.; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S.; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Whitfield, John B.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D.; Magnusson, Patrik K.; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Nilsson, Peter M.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P.; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I.

2015-01-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10−107) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10−30). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:25712996
Over-imitation is not automatic: context sensitivity in children's overimitation and action interpretation of causally irrelevant actions.

PubMed

Keupp, Stefanie; Behne, Tanya; Zachow, Joanna; Kasbohm, Alina; Rakoczy, Hannes

2015-02-01

Recent research has documented the robust tendency of children to "over-imitate," that is, to copy causally irrelevant action elements in goal-directed action sequences. Different explanations for over-imitation have been proposed. Causal accounts claim that children mistakenly perceive such action elements as causally relevant and, therefore, imitate them. Affiliation accounts claim that children over-imitate to affiliate with the model. Normative accounts claim that children conceive of causally irrelevant actions as essential parts of an overarching conventional activity. These different accounts generally hold the same predictions regarding children's imitative response. However, it is possible to distinguish between them when one considers additional parameters. The normative account predicts wide-ranging flexibility with regard to action interpretation and the occurrence of over-imitation. First, it predicts spontaneous protest against norm violators who omit the causally irrelevant actions. Second, children should perform the causally irrelevant actions less frequently, and criticize others less frequently for omitting them, when the actions take place in a different context from the one of the initial demonstration. Such flexibility is not predicted by causal accounts and is predicted for only a limited range of contexts by affiliation accounts. Study 1 investigated children's own imitative response and found less over-imitation when children acted in a different context from when they acted in the same context as the initial demonstration. In Study 2, children criticized a puppet less frequently for omitting irrelevant actions when the puppet acted in a different context. The results support the notion that over-imitation is not an automatic and inflexible phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimating causal effects with a non-paranormal method for the design of efficient intervention experiments

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Knockdown or overexpression of genes is widely used to identify genes that play important roles in many aspects of cellular functions and phenotypes. Because next-generation sequencing generates high-throughput data that allow us to detect genes, it is important to identify genes that drive functional and phenotypic changes of cells. However, conventional methods rely heavily on the assumption of normality and they often give incorrect results when the assumption is not true. To relax the Gaussian assumption in causal inference, we introduce the non-paranormal method to test conditional independence in the PC-algorithm. Then, we present the non-paranormal intervention-calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (NPN-IDA), which incorporates the cumulative nature of effects through a cascaded pathway via causal inference for ranking causal genes against a phenotype with the non-paranormal method for estimating DAGs. Results We demonstrate that causal inference with the non-paranormal method significantly improves the performance in estimating DAGs on synthetic data in comparison with the original PC-algorithm. Moreover, we show that NPN-IDA outperforms the conventional methods in exploring regulators of the flowering time in Arabidopsis thaliana and regulators that control the browning of white adipocytes in mice. Our results show that performance improvement in estimating DAGs contributes to an accurate estimation of causal effects. Conclusions Although the simplest alternative procedure was used, our proposed method enables us to design efficient intervention experiments and can be applied to a wide range of research purposes, including drug discovery, because of its generality. PMID:24980787
Social Support and Endocrine Function: A Randomized Trial with Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-08-01

number of events, but also involves cognitive appraisal processes as well (Cohen, Kamarck, & Mermelstein, 1983; Lazarus & Folkman , 1984). Subjective...been linked causally to social support in some studies (Cohen, Teresi, & Holmes, 1987; Schaefer, Coyne, & Lazarus , 1981), suggesting that social support...Schaefer, C., Coyne, J., & Lazarus , R. (1981). Health related functions of social support. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 4, 381-406. Seeman, T.E
Causal interactions in resting-state networks predict perceived loneliness.

PubMed

Tian, Yin; Yang, Li; Chen, Sifan; Guo, Daqing; Ding, Zechao; Tam, Kin Yip; Yao, Dezhong

2017-01-01

Loneliness is broadly described as a negative emotional response resulting from the differences between the actual and desired social relations of an individual, which is related to the neural responses in connection with social and emotional stimuli. Prior research has discovered that some neural regions play a role in loneliness. However, little is known about the differences among individuals in loneliness and the relationship of those differences to differences in neural networks. The current study aimed to investigate individual differences in perceived loneliness related to the causal interactions between resting-state networks (RSNs), including the dorsal attentional network (DAN), the ventral attentional network (VAN), the affective network (AfN) and the visual network (VN). Using conditional granger causal analysis of resting-state fMRI data, we revealed that the weaker causal flow from DAN to VAN is related to higher loneliness scores, and the decreased causal flow from AfN to VN is also related to higher loneliness scores. Our results clearly support the hypothesis that there is a connection between loneliness and neural networks. It is envisaged that neural network features could play a key role in characterizing the loneliness of an individual.
Causal interactions in resting-state networks predict perceived loneliness

PubMed Central

Yang, Li; Chen, Sifan; Guo, Daqing; Ding, Zechao; Tam, Kin Yip; Yao, Dezhong

2017-01-01

Loneliness is broadly described as a negative emotional response resulting from the differences between the actual and desired social relations of an individual, which is related to the neural responses in connection with social and emotional stimuli. Prior research has discovered that some neural regions play a role in loneliness. However, little is known about the differences among individuals in loneliness and the relationship of those differences to differences in neural networks. The current study aimed to investigate individual differences in perceived loneliness related to the causal interactions between resting-state networks (RSNs), including the dorsal attentional network (DAN), the ventral attentional network (VAN), the affective network (AfN) and the visual network (VN). Using conditional granger causal analysis of resting-state fMRI data, we revealed that the weaker causal flow from DAN to VAN is related to higher loneliness scores, and the decreased causal flow from AfN to VN is also related to higher loneliness scores. Our results clearly support the hypothesis that there is a connection between loneliness and neural networks. It is envisaged that neural network features could play a key role in characterizing the loneliness of an individual. PMID:28545125
Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory

PubMed Central

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

2012-01-01

We propose a new version of the “theory theory” grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and non-technical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists. PMID:22582739
Moral asymmetries in judgments of agency withstand ludicrous causal deviance

PubMed Central

Sousa, Paulo; Holbrook, Colin; Swiney, Lauren

2015-01-01

Americans have been shown to attribute greater intentionality to immoral than to amoral actions in cases of causal deviance, that is, cases where a goal is satisfied in a way that deviates from initially planned means (e.g., a gunman wants to hit a target and his hand slips, but the bullet ricochets off a rock into the target). However, past research has yet to assess whether this asymmetry persists in cases of extreme causal deviance. Here, we manipulated the level of mild to extreme causal deviance of an immoral versus amoral act. The asymmetry in attributions of intentionality was observed at all but the most extreme level of causal deviance, and, as we hypothesized, was mediated by attributions of blame/credit and judgments of action performance. These findings are discussed as they support a multiple-concepts interpretation of the asymmetry, wherein blame renders a naïve concept of intentional action (the outcome matches the intention) more salient than a composite concept (the outcome matches the intention and was brought about by planned means), and in terms of their implications for cross-cultural research on judgments of agency. PMID:26441755

Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Blomquist, Joel; Sprague, Lori A.; Sekellick, Andrew J.; Keisman, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.
Causal Attributions and Parents' Acceptance of Their Homosexual Sons.

PubMed

Belsky, Yael; Diamond, Gary M

2015-01-01

This Internet-based study examined the association between Israeli parents' attributions regarding the cause of their son's homosexuality and their level of acceptance of their homosexual son. The sample (N = 57) was recruited via Internet Web sites (gay forums and support groups). Findings suggest that more essentialist (versus constructivist) causal attributions were associated with higher levels of parental acceptance. Length of time parents knew of their son's homosexual orientation predicted the degree to which their attributions were essentialist. Implications are discussed.
A review of current evidence for the causal impact of attentional bias on fear and anxiety.

PubMed

Van Bockstaele, Bram; Verschuere, Bruno; Tibboel, Helen; De Houwer, Jan; Crombez, Geert; Koster, Ernst H W

2014-05-01

Prominent cognitive theories postulate that an attentional bias toward threatening information contributes to the etiology, maintenance, or exacerbation of fear and anxiety. In this review, we investigate to what extent these causal claims are supported by sound empirical evidence. Although differences in attentional bias are associated with differences in fear and anxiety, this association does not emerge consistently. Moreover, there is only limited evidence that individual differences in attentional bias are related to individual differences in fear or anxiety. In line with a causal relation, some studies show that attentional bias precedes fear or anxiety in time. However, other studies show that fear and anxiety can precede the onset of attentional bias, suggesting circular or reciprocal causality. Importantly, a recent line of experimental research shows that changes in attentional bias can lead to changes in anxiety. Yet changes in fear and anxiety also lead to changes in attentional bias, which confirms that the relation between attentional bias and fear and anxiety is unlikely to be unidirectional. Finally, a similar causal relation between interpretation bias and anxiety has been documented. In sum, there is evidence in favor of causality, yet a strict unidirectional cause-effect model is unlikely to hold. The relation between attentional bias and fear and anxiety is best described as a bidirectional, maintaining, or mutually reinforcing relation.
Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review

PubMed Central

Smith, Emily R.; Moscoe, Ellen; Audy, Robin; Bell, Winnie; Brennan, Alana T.; Breskin, Alexander; Kane, Jeremy C.; Suarez, Elizabeth A.

2018-01-01

Background The pathway from evidence generation to consumption contains many steps which can lead to overstatement or misinformation. The proliferation of internet-based health news may encourage selection of media and academic research articles that overstate strength of causal inference. We investigated the state of causal inference in health research as it appears at the end of the pathway, at the point of social media consumption. Methods We screened the NewsWhip Insights database for the most shared media articles on Facebook and Twitter reporting about peer-reviewed academic studies associating an exposure with a health outcome in 2015, extracting the 50 most-shared academic articles and media articles covering them. We designed and utilized a review tool to systematically assess and summarize studies’ strength of causal inference, including generalizability, potential confounders, and methods used. These were then compared with the strength of causal language used to describe results in both academic and media articles. Two randomly assigned independent reviewers and one arbitrating reviewer from a pool of 21 reviewers assessed each article. Results We accepted the most shared 64 media articles pertaining to 50 academic articles for review, representing 68% of Facebook and 45% of Twitter shares in 2015. Thirty-four percent of academic studies and 48% of media articles used language that reviewers considered too strong for their strength of causal inference. Seventy percent of academic studies were considered low or very low strength of inference, with only 6% considered high or very high strength of causal inference. The most severe issues with academic studies’ causal inference were reported to be omitted confounding variables and generalizability. Fifty-eight percent of media articles were found to have inaccurately reported the question, results, intervention, or population of the academic study. Conclusions We find a large disparity between the strength of language as presented to the research consumer and the underlying strength of causal inference among the studies most widely shared on social media. However, because this sample was designed to be representative of the articles selected and shared on social media, it is unlikely to be representative of all academic and media work. More research is needed to determine how academic institutions, media organizations, and social network sharing patterns impact causal inference and language as received by the research consumer. PMID:29847549
Best (but oft-forgotten) practices: the design, analysis, and interpretation of Mendelian randomization studies1

PubMed Central

Bowden, Jack; Relton, Caroline; Davey Smith, George

2016-01-01

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an increasingly important tool for appraising causality in observational epidemiology. The technique exploits the principle that genotypes are not generally susceptible to reverse causation bias and confounding, reflecting their fixed nature and Mendel’s first and second laws of inheritance. The approach is, however, subject to important limitations and assumptions that, if unaddressed or compounded by poor study design, can lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, the advent of 2-sample approaches (in which exposure and outcome are measured in separate samples) and the increasing availability of open-access data from large consortia of genome-wide association studies and population biobanks mean that the approach is likely to become routine practice in evidence synthesis and causal inference research. In this article we provide an overview of the design, analysis, and interpretation of MR studies, with a special emphasis on assumptions and limitations. We also consider different analytic strategies for strengthening causal inference. Although impossible to prove causality with any single approach, MR is a highly cost-effective strategy for prioritizing intervention targets for disease prevention and for strengthening the evidence base for public health policy. PMID:26961927
A relevance theory of induction.

PubMed

Medin, Douglas L; Coley, John D; Storms, Gert; Hayes, Brett K

2003-09-01

A framework theory, organized around the principle of relevance, is proposed for category-based reasoning. According to the relevance principle, people assume that premises are informative with respect to conclusions. This idea leads to the prediction that people will use causal scenarios and property reinforcement strategies in inductive reasoning. These predictions are contrasted with both existing models and normative logic. Judgments of argument strength were gathered in three different countries, and the results showed the importance of both causal scenarios and property reinforcement in category-based inferences. The relation between the relevance framework and existing models of category-based inductive reasoning is discussed in the light of these findings.
The second World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research expert report. Food, nutrition, physical activity, and the prevention of cancer: a global perspective.

PubMed

Wiseman, Martin

2008-08-01

It has been estimated by various authorities that about one-third of cancers in Western high-income societies are attributable to factors relating to food, nutrition and physical activity. Identifying with confidence specific associations between dietary patterns, foods, body composition or individual nutrients is not simple because of the long latent period for cancer development, its complex pathogenesis and the challenge of characterising the multidimensional aspects of diet and activity over a lifetime. Reliable conclusions must therefore be drawn not only from randomised controlled trials but from a variety of methodological approaches, judged within a classic framework for inferring causality. Using a newly-developed method with a protocol for standardising the literature search and for analysis and display of the evidence, nine independent academic centres have conducted systematic reviews addressing the causal associations between food, nutrition and physical activity and risk of development of seventeen cancers, as well as of weight gain and obesity. A review has also examined the efficacy of such interventions in subjects with cancer. The reviews have been assessed by an independent Panel of twenty-one international experts who drew conclusions with grades of confidence in the causality of associations and made recommendations. Recommendations are given as public health goals as well as for individuals.
Who really gets strep sore throat? Confounding and effect modification of a time-varying exposure on recurrent events.

PubMed

Follmann, Dean; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Gabriel, Erin

2016-10-30

Unmeasured confounding is the fundamental obstacle to drawing causal conclusions about the impact of an intervention from observational data. Typically, covariates are measured to eliminate or ameliorate confounding, but they may be insufficient or unavailable. In the special setting where a transient intervention or exposure varies over time within each individual and confounding is time constant, a different tack is possible. The key idea is to condition on either the overall outcome or the proportion of time in the intervention. These measures can eliminate the unmeasured confounding either by conditioning or by use of a proxy covariate. We evaluate existing methods and develop new models from which causal conclusions can be drawn from such observational data even if no baseline covariates are measured. Our motivation for this work was to determine the causal effect of Streptococcus bacteria in the throat on pharyngitis (sore throat) in Indian schoolchildren. Using our models, we show that existing methods can be badly biased and that sick children who are rarely colonized have a high probability that the Streptococcus bacteria are causing their disease. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Modelling public support for wildland fire policy

Treesearch

J.D. Absher; J.J. Vaske

2007-01-01

Theoretically grounded explanations of wildland fire policy can be improved by empirically documenting the causal influences of support for (or opposition to) management alternatives. This chapter proposes a model based on the specificity principle (i.e. correspondence between measured variables to empirically examine four common wildland fire policies in relation to...
From patterns to causal understanding: Structural equation modeling (SEM) in soil ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eisenhauer, Nico; Powell, Jeff R; Grace, James B.; Bowker, Matthew A.

2015-01-01

In this perspectives paper we highlight a heretofore underused statistical method in soil ecological research, structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM is commonly used in the general ecological literature to develop causal understanding from observational data, but has been more slowly adopted by soil ecologists. We provide some basic information on the many advantages and possibilities associated with using SEM and provide some examples of how SEM can be used by soil ecologists to shift focus from describing patterns to developing causal understanding and inspiring new types of experimental tests. SEM is a promising tool to aid the growth of soil ecology as a discipline, particularly by supporting research that is increasingly hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary, thus shining light into the black box of interactions belowground.
Development from Grades V through XI of Children's Ability to Make Correct Causal Inferences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Benjamin; Tuddenham, Read D.

1979-01-01

Unless sensitized to avoid them, Ss (regardless of grade) tended to draw overly sweeping inferences, perhaps because of a need for closure. Older Ss, however, were more successful at suspending judgment when no definite conclusion was justified. (Author/DLS)
Prior knowledge driven Granger causality analysis on gene regulatory network discovery

DOE PAGES

Yao, Shun; Yoo, Shinjae; Yu, Dantong

2015-08-28

Our study focuses on discovering gene regulatory networks from time series gene expression data using the Granger causality (GC) model. However, the number of available time points (T) usually is much smaller than the number of target genes (n) in biological datasets. The widely applied pairwise GC model (PGC) and other regularization strategies can lead to a significant number of false identifications when n>>T. In this study, we proposed a new method, viz., CGC-2SPR (CGC using two-step prior Ridge regularization) to resolve the problem by incorporating prior biological knowledge about a target gene data set. In our simulation experiments, themore » propose new methodology CGC-2SPR showed significant performance improvement in terms of accuracy over other widely used GC modeling (PGC, Ridge and Lasso) and MI-based (MRNET and ARACNE) methods. In addition, we applied CGC-2SPR to a real biological dataset, i.e., the yeast metabolic cycle, and discovered more true positive edges with CGC-2SPR than with the other existing methods. In our research, we noticed a “ 1+1>2” effect when we combined prior knowledge and gene expression data to discover regulatory networks. Based on causality networks, we made a functional prediction that the Abm1 gene (its functions previously were unknown) might be related to the yeast’s responses to different levels of glucose. In conclusion, our research improves causality modeling by combining heterogeneous knowledge, which is well aligned with the future direction in system biology. Furthermore, we proposed a method of Monte Carlo significance estimation (MCSE) to calculate the edge significances which provide statistical meanings to the discovered causality networks. All of our data and source codes will be available under the link https://bitbucket.org/dtyu/granger-causality/wiki/Home.« less
Lightweight causal and atomic group multicast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birman, Kenneth P.; Schiper, Andre; Stephenson, Pat

1991-01-01

The ISIS toolkit is a distributed programming environment based on support for virtually synchronous process groups and group communication. A suite of protocols is presented to support this model. The approach revolves around a multicast primitive, called CBCAST, which implements a fault-tolerant, causally ordered message delivery. This primitive can be used directly or extended into a totally ordered multicast primitive, called ABCAST. It normally delivers messages immediately upon reception, and imposes a space overhead proportional to the size of the groups to which the sender belongs, usually a small number. It is concluded that process groups and group communication can achieve performance and scaling comparable to that of a raw message transport layer. This finding contradicts the widespread concern that this style of distributed computing may be unacceptably costly.
Examining the effect of self-explanation on cognitive integration of basic and clinical sciences in novices.

PubMed

Lisk, Kristina; Agur, Anne M R; Woods, Nicole N

2017-12-01

Several studies have shown that cognitive integration of basic and clinical sciences supports diagnostic reasoning in novices; however, there has been limited exploration of the ways in which educators can translate this model of mental activity into sound instructional strategies. The use of self-explanation during learning has the potential to promote and support the development of integrated knowledge by encouraging novices to elaborate on the causal relationship between clinical features and basic science mechanisms. To explore the effect of this strategy, we compared diagnostic efficacy of teaching students (n = 71) the clinical features of four musculoskeletal pathologies using either (1) integrated causal basic science descriptions (BaSci group); (2) integrated causal basic science descriptions combined with self-explanation prompts (SE group); (3) basic science mechanisms segregated from the clinical features (SG group). All participants completed a diagnostic accuracy test immediately after learning and 1-week later. The results showed that the BaSci group performed significantly better compared to the SE (p = 0.019) and SG groups (p = 0.004); however, no difference was observed between the SE and SG groups (p = 0.91). We hypothesize that the structure of the self-explanation task may not have supported the development of a holistic conceptual understanding of each disease. These findings suggest that integration strategies need to be carefully structured and applied in ways that support the holistic story created by integrated basic science instruction in order to foster conceptual coherence and to capitalize on the benefits of cognition integration.
Problems for the standard black hole/accretion disk models in Cygnus X-1?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Done, C.; Mulchaey, J. S.; Mushotzky, R. F.; Arnaud, K. A.

1992-01-01

Archival EXOSAT and HEAO1-A2 data from Cyg X-1 show the 'high energy excess' above 10 keV seen in X-ray observations of AGN. Using a likelihood ratio test, we are for the first time able to distinguish conclusively in favor of Compton reflection rather than partial covering as the origin of the high energy excess. This supports the idea of an X-ray illuminated accretion disk in Cyg X-1, but the line equivalent width is smaller by a factor of 2-3 than that expected from such a disk. While the larger optical depth required for reflection as opposed to line emission admit the possibility of seeing line without reflection, the converse is not possible. To see a reflection spectrum, including the strong iron absorption edge, implies that strong iron emission must be observed as the line and edge are causally linked.
Consequences of bullying in schools.

PubMed

Rigby, Ken

2003-10-01

For the most part, studies of the consequences of bullying in schools have concentrated upon health outcomes for children persistently bullied by their peers. Conclusions have been influenced by how bullying has been conceptualized and assessed, the specific health outcomes investigated, and the research method and data analysis employed. Results from cross-sectional surveys suggest that being victimized by peers is significantly related to comparatively low levels of psychological well-being and social adjustment and to high levels of psychological distress and adverse physical health symptoms. Retrospective reports and studies suggest that peer victimization may contribute to later difficulties with health and well-being. Longitudinal studies provide stronger support for the view that peer victimization is a significant causal factor in schoolchildren's lowered health and well-being and that the effects can be long-lasting. Further evidence from longitudinal studies indicates that the tendency to bully others at school significantly predicts subsequent antisocial and violent behaviour.
Optimal back-to-front airplane boarding.

PubMed

Bachmat, Eitan; Khachaturov, Vassilii; Kuperman, Ran

2013-06-01

The problem of finding an optimal back-to-front airplane boarding policy is explored, using a mathematical model that is related to the 1+1 polynuclear growth model with concave boundary conditions and to causal sets in gravity. We study all airplane configurations and boarding group sizes. Optimal boarding policies for various airplane configurations are presented. Detailed calculations are provided along with simulations that support the main conclusions of the theory. We show that the effectiveness of back-to-front policies undergoes a phase transition when passing from lightly congested airplanes to heavily congested airplanes. The phase transition also affects the nature of the optimal or near-optimal policies. Under what we consider to be realistic conditions, optimal back-to-front policies lead to a modest 8-12% improvement in boarding time over random (no policy) boarding, using two boarding groups. Having more than two groups is not effective.
Evidence that protons act as neurotransmitters at vestibular hair cell-calyx afferent synapses.

PubMed

Highstein, Stephen M; Holstein, Gay R; Mann, Mary Anne; Rabbitt, Richard D

2014-04-08

Present data support the conclusion that protons serve as an important neurotransmitter to convey excitatory stimuli from inner ear type I vestibular hair cells to postsynaptic calyx nerve terminals. Time-resolved pH imaging revealed stimulus-evoked extrusion of protons from hair cells and a subsequent buildup of [H(+)] within the confined chalice-shaped synaptic cleft (ΔpH ∼ -0.2). Whole-cell voltage-clamp recordings revealed a concomitant nonquantal excitatory postsynaptic current in the calyx terminal that was causally modulated by cleft acidification. The time course of [H(+)] buildup limits the speed of this intercellular signaling mechanism, but for tonic signals such as gravity, protonergic transmission offers a significant metabolic advantage over quantal excitatory postsynaptic currents--an advantage that may have driven the proliferation of postsynaptic calyx terminals in the inner ear vestibular organs of contemporary amniotes.
A genetically informative developmental study of the relationship between conduct disorder and peer deviance in males

PubMed Central

Kendler, K. S.; Jacobson, K.; Myers, J. M.; Eaves, L. J.

2014-01-01

Background Conduct disorder (CD) and peer deviance (PD) both powerfully predict future externalizing behaviors. Although levels of CD and PD are strongly correlated, the causal relationship between them has remained controversial and has not been examined by a genetically informative study. Method Levels of CD and PD were assessed in 746 adult male–male twin pairs at personal interview for ages 8–11, 12–14 and 15–17 years using a life history calendar. Model fitting was performed using the Mx program. Results The best-fit model indicated an active developmental relationship between CD and PD including forward transmission of both traits over time and strong causal relationships between CD and PD within time periods. The best-fit model indicated that the causal relationship for genetic risk factors was from CD to PD and was constant over time. For common environmental factors, the causal pathways ran from PD to CD and were stronger in earlier than later age periods. Conclusions A genetically informative model revealed causal pathways difficult to elucidate by other methods. Genes influence risk for CD, which, through social selection, impacts on the deviance of peers. Shared environment, through family and community processes, encourages or discourages adolescent deviant behavior, which, via social influence, alters risk for CD. Social influence is more important than social selection in childhood, but by late adolescence social selection becomes predominant. These findings have implications for prevention efforts for CD and associated externalizing disorders. PMID:17935643
Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

PubMed

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-07-24

People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies.

Positive events protect children from causal false memories for scripted events.

PubMed

Melinder, Annika; Toffalini, Enrico; Geccherle, Eleonora; Cornoldi, Cesare

2017-11-01

Adults produce fewer inferential false memories for scripted events when their conclusions are emotionally charged than when they are neutral, but it is not clear whether the same effect is also found in children. In the present study, we examined this issue in a sample of 132 children aged 6-12 years (mean 9 years, 3 months). Participants encoded photographs depicting six script-like events that had a positively, negatively, or a neutral valenced ending. Subsequently, true and false recognition memory of photographs related to the observed scripts was tested as a function of emotionality. Causal errors-a type of false memory thought to stem from inferential processes-were found to be affected by valence: children made fewer causal errors for positive than for neutral or negative events. Hypotheses are proposed on why adults were found protected against inferential false memories not only by positive (as for children) but also by negative endings when administered similar versions of the same paradigm.
Exploring the relationship between child physical abuse and adult dating violence using a causal inference approach in an emerging adult population in South Korea.

PubMed

Jennings, Wesley G; Park, MiRang; Richards, Tara N; Tomsich, Elizabeth; Gover, Angela; Powers, Ráchael A

2014-12-01

Child maltreatment is one of the most commonly examined risk factors for violence in dating relationships. Often referred to as the intergenerational transmission of violence or cycle of violence, a fair amount of research suggests that experiencing abuse during childhood significantly increases the likelihood of involvement in violent relationships later, but these conclusions are primarily based on correlational research designs. Furthermore, the majority of research linking childhood maltreatment and dating violence has focused on samples of young people from the United States. Considering these limitations, the current study uses a rigorous, propensity score matching approach to estimate the causal effect of experiencing child physical abuse on adult dating violence among a large sample of South Korean emerging adults. Results indicate that the link between child physical abuse and adult dating violence is spurious rather than causal. Study limitations and implications are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and explosive growth alter genetic architecture and hamper the detection of causal rare variants

PubMed Central

Zaitlen, Noah A.; Ye, Chun Jimmie; Witte, John S.

2016-01-01

The role of rare alleles in complex phenotypes has been hotly debated, but most rare variant association tests (RVATs) do not account for the evolutionary forces that affect genetic architecture. Here, we use simulation and numerical algorithms to show that explosive population growth, as experienced by human populations, can dramatically increase the impact of very rare alleles on trait variance. We then assess the ability of RVATs to detect causal loci using simulations and human RNA-seq data. Surprisingly, we find that statistical performance is worst for phenotypes in which genetic variance is due mainly to rare alleles, and explosive population growth decreases power. Although many studies have attempted to identify causal rare variants, few have reported novel associations. This has sometimes been interpreted to mean that rare variants make negligible contributions to complex trait heritability. Our work shows that RVATs are not robust to realistic human evolutionary forces, so general conclusions about the impact of rare variants on complex traits may be premature. PMID:27197206
Association of timing of menarche with depressive symptoms and depression in adolescence: Mendelian randomisation study

PubMed Central

Sequeira, Maija-Eliina; Lewis, Sarah J.; Bonilla, Carolina; Smith, George Davey; Joinson, Carol

2017-01-01

Background Observational studies report associations between early menarche and higher levels of depressive symptoms and depression. However, no studies have investigated whether this association is causal. Aims To determine whether earlier menarche is a causal risk factor for depressive symptoms and depression in adolescence. Method The associations between a genetic score for age at menarche and depressive symptoms at 14, 17 and 19 years, and depression at 18 years, were examined using Mendelian randomisation analysis techniques. Results Using a genetic risk score to indicate earlier timing of menarche, we found that early menarche is associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms at 14 years (odds ratio per risk allele 1.02, 95% CI 1.005–1.04, n = 2404). We did not find an association between the early menarche risk score and depressive symptoms or depression after age 14. Conclusions Our results provide evidence for a causal effect of age at menarche on depressive symptoms at age 14. PMID:27491534
Spinal curves and health: a systematic critical review of the epidemiological literature dealing with associations between sagittal spinal curves and health.

PubMed

Christensen, Sanne Toftgaard; Hartvigsen, Jan

2008-01-01

The purposes of this study were to (1) determine whether sagittal spinal curves are associated with health in epidemiological studies, (2) estimate the strength of such associations, and (3) consider whether these relations are likely to be causal. A systematic critical literature review of epidemiological (cross-sectional, case-control, cohort) studies published before 2008 including studies identified in the CINAHL, EMBASE, Mantis, and Medline databases was performed using a structured checklist and a quality assessment. Level of evidence analysis was performed as outlined by van Tulder et al (Spine. 2003;28:1290-9), and the strength of associations were determined using the procedure outlined by Hemingway and Marmot (BMJ. 1999;318:1460-7). Quality of the included articles were assessed by our own scoring system based on the STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology checklist. Studies scoring maximum points (4/4 or 3/3) were considered to be of higher quality. Fifty-four original studies were included. We found no strong evidence for any association between sagittal spinal curves and any health outcomes including spinal pain. The included studies were generally of low methodological quality. There is moderate evidence for association between sagittal spinal curves and 4 health outcomes as follows: temporomandibular disorders (no odds ratios [ORs] provided), pelvic organ prolapse (OR, 3.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46-96.93), daily function (OR range, 1.8-3.7; 95% CI range, 1.1-6.3), and death (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.91). These associations are however unlikely to be causal. Evidence from epidemiological studies does not support an association between sagittal spinal curves and health including spinal pain. Further research of better methodological quality may affect this conclusion, and causal effects cannot be determined in a systematic review.
Mendelian randomization of blood lipids for coronary heart disease

PubMed Central

Holmes, Michael V.; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Palmer, Tom M.; Drenos, Fotios; Lanktree, Matthew B.; Nelson, Christopher P.; Dale, Caroline E.; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Finan, Chris; Swerdlow, Daniel I.; Tragante, Vinicius; van Iperen, Erik P.A.; Sivapalaratnam, Suthesh; Shah, Sonia; Elbers, Clara C.; Shah, Tina; Engmann, Jorgen; Giambartolomei, Claudia; White, Jon; Zabaneh, Delilah; Sofat, Reecha; McLachlan, Stela; Doevendans, Pieter A.; Balmforth, Anthony J.; Hall, Alistair S.; North, Kari E.; Almoguera, Berta; Hoogeveen, Ron C.; Cushman, Mary; Fornage, Myriam; Patel, Sanjay R.; Redline, Susan; Siscovick, David S.; Tsai, Michael Y.; Karczewski, Konrad J.; Hofker, Marten H.; Verschuren, W. Monique; Bots, Michiel L.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Melander, Olle; Dominiczak, Anna F.; Morris, Richard; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Price, Jackie; Kumari, Meena; Baumert, Jens; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Koenig, Wolfgang; Gaunt, Tom R.; Humphries, Steve E.; Clarke, Robert; Watkins, Hugh; Farrall, Martin; Wilson, James G.; Rich, Stephen S.; de Bakker, Paul I.W.; Lange, Leslie A.; Davey Smith, George; Reiner, Alex P.; Talmud, Philippa J.; Kivimäki, Mika; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Dudbridge, Frank; Samani, Nilesh J.; Keating, Brendan J.; Hingorani, Aroon D.; Casas, Juan P.

2015-01-01

Aims To investigate the causal role of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides in coronary heart disease (CHD) using multiple instrumental variables for Mendelian randomization. Methods and results We developed weighted allele scores based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with established associations with HDL-C, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). For each trait, we constructed two scores. The first was unrestricted, including all independent SNPs associated with the lipid trait identified from a prior meta-analysis (threshold P < 2 × 10−6); and the second a restricted score, filtered to remove any SNPs also associated with either of the other two lipid traits at P ≤ 0.01. Mendelian randomization meta-analyses were conducted in 17 studies including 62,199 participants and 12,099 CHD events. Both the unrestricted and restricted allele scores for LDL-C (42 and 19 SNPs, respectively) associated with CHD. For HDL-C, the unrestricted allele score (48 SNPs) was associated with CHD (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.70), per 1 mmol/L higher HDL-C, but neither the restricted allele score (19 SNPs; OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.42, 1.98) nor the unrestricted HDL-C allele score adjusted for triglycerides, LDL-C, or statin use (OR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.44, 1.46) showed a robust association. For triglycerides, the unrestricted allele score (67 SNPs) and the restricted allele score (27 SNPs) were both associated with CHD (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.24, 2.11 and 1.61; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.59, respectively) per 1-log unit increment. However, the unrestricted triglyceride score adjusted for HDL-C, LDL-C, and statin use gave an OR for CHD of 1.01 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.75). Conclusion The genetic findings support a causal effect of triglycerides on CHD risk, but a causal role for HDL-C, though possible, remains less certain. PMID:24474739
A systematic review of the etiopathogenesis of Kienböck's disease and a critical appraisal of its recognition as an occupational disease related to hand-arm vibration.

PubMed

Stahl, Stéphane; Stahl, Adelana Santos; Meisner, Christoph; Rahmanian-Schwarz, Afshin; Schaller, Hans-Eberhard; Lotter, Oliver

2012-11-21

We systematically reviewed etiological factors of Kienböck's disease (osteonecrosis of the lunate) discussed in the literature in order to examine the justification for including Kienböck's disease (KD) in the European Listing of Occupational Diseases. We searched the Ovid/Medline and the Cochrane Library for articles discussing the etiology of osteonecrosis of the lunate published since the first description of KD in 1910 and up until July 2012 in English, French or German. Literature was classified by the level of evidence presented, the etiopathological hypothesis discussed, and the author's conclusion about the role of the etiopathological hypothesis. The causal relationship between KD and hand-arm vibration was elucidated by the Bradford Hill criteria. A total of 220 references was found. Of the included 152 articles, 140 (92%) reached the evidence level IV (case series). The four most frequently discussed factors were negative ulnar variance (n=72; 47%), primary arterial ischemia of the lunate (n=63; 41%), trauma (n=63; 41%) and hand-arm vibration (n=53; 35%). The quality of the cohort studies on hand-arm vibration did not permit a meta-analysis to evaluate the strength of an association to KD. Evidence for the lack of consistency, plausibility and coherence of the 4 most frequently discussed etiopathologies was found. No evidence was found to support any of the nine Bradford Hill criteria for a causal relationship between KD and hand-arm vibration. A systematic review of 220 articles on the etiopathology of KD and the application of the Bradford Hill criteria does not provide sufficient scientific evidence to confirm or refute a causal relationship between KD and hand-arm vibration. This currently suggests that, KD does not comply with the criteria of the International Labour Organization determining occupational diseases. However, research with a higher level of evidence is required to further determine if hand-arm vibration is a risk factor for KD.
Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: Using the children-of-twins design to test causal hypotheses

PubMed Central

Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D’Onofrio, Brian M

2013-01-01

Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behaviour. It is not clear if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children-of-siblings and children-of-twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant MZ twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association. PMID:23398750
Enhancing causal interpretations of quality improvement interventions.

PubMed

Cable, G

2001-09-01

In an era of chronic resource scarcity it is critical that quality improvement professionals have confidence that their project activities cause measured change. A commonly used research design, the single group pre-test/post-test design, provides little insight into whether quality improvement interventions cause measured outcomes. A re-evaluation of a quality improvement programme designed to reduce the percentage of bilateral cardiac catheterisations for the period from January 1991 to October 1996 in three catheterisation laboratories in a north eastern state in the USA was performed using an interrupted time series design with switching replications. The accuracy and causal interpretability of the findings were considerably improved compared with the original evaluation design. Moreover, the re-evaluation provided tangible evidence in support of the suggestion that more rigorous designs can and should be more widely employed to improve the causal interpretability of quality improvement efforts. Evaluation designs for quality improvement projects should be constructed to provide a reasonable opportunity, given available time and resources, for causal interpretation of the results. Evaluators of quality improvement initiatives may infrequently have access to randomised designs. Nonetheless, as shown here, other very rigorous research designs are available for improving causal interpretability. Unilateral methodological surrender need not be the only alternative to randomised experiments.
Log-Based Recovery in Asynchronous Distributed Systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kane, Kenneth Paul

1989-01-01

A log-based mechanism is described for restoring consistent states to replicated data objects after failures. Preserving a causal form of consistency based on the notion of virtual time is focused upon in this report. Causal consistency has been shown to apply to a variety of applications, including distributed simulation, task decomposition, and mail delivery systems. Several mechanisms have been proposed for implementing causally consistent recovery, most notably those of Strom and Yemini, and Johnson and Zwaenepoel. The mechanism proposed here differs from these in two major respects. First, a roll-forward style of recovery is implemented. A functioning process is never required to roll-back its state in order to achieve consistency with a recovering process. Second, the mechanism does not require any explicit information about the causal dependencies between updates. Instead, all necessary dependency information is inferred from the orders in which updates are logged by the object servers. This basic recovery technique appears to be applicable to forms of consistency other than causal consistency. In particular, it is shown how the recovery technique can be modified to support an atomic form of consistency (grouping consistency). By combining grouping consistency with casual consistency, it may even be possible to implement serializable consistency within this mechanism.
Causal gene identification using combinatorial V-structure search.

PubMed

Cai, Ruichu; Zhang, Zhenjie; Hao, Zhifeng

2013-07-01

With the advances of biomedical techniques in the last decade, the costs of human genomic sequencing and genomic activity monitoring are coming down rapidly. To support the huge genome-based business in the near future, researchers are eager to find killer applications based on human genome information. Causal gene identification is one of the most promising applications, which may help the potential patients to estimate the risk of certain genetic diseases and locate the target gene for further genetic therapy. Unfortunately, existing pattern recognition techniques, such as Bayesian networks, cannot be directly applied to find the accurate causal relationship between genes and diseases. This is mainly due to the insufficient number of samples and the extremely high dimensionality of the gene space. In this paper, we present the first practical solution to causal gene identification, utilizing a new combinatorial formulation over V-Structures commonly used in conventional Bayesian networks, by exploring the combinations of significant V-Structures. We prove the NP-hardness of the combinatorial search problem under a general settings on the significance measure on the V-Structures, and present a greedy algorithm to find sub-optimal results. Extensive experiments show that our proposal is both scalable and effective, particularly with interesting findings on the causal genes over real human genome data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: using the children of twins design to test causal hypotheses.

PubMed

Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M

2013-02-01

Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behavior. It is not clear, however, if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children of siblings and children of twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant monozygotic twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association.
Numerical limitations in application of vector autoregressive modeling and Granger causality to analysis of EEG time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kammerdiner, Alla; Xanthopoulos, Petros; Pardalos, Panos M.

2007-11-01

In this chapter a potential problem with application of the Granger-causality based on the simple vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling to EEG data is investigated. Although some initial studies tested whether the data support the stationarity assumption of VAR, the stability of the estimated model is rarely (if ever) been verified. In fact, in cases when the stability condition is violated the process may exhibit a random walk like behavior or even be explosive. The problem is illustrated by an example.
Applied Empiricism: Ensuring the Validity of Causal Response to Intervention Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Collier-Meek, Melissa A.; Johnson, Austin H.; Jaffery, Rose

2014-01-01

School personnel make a variety of decisions within multitiered problem-solving frameworks, including the decision to assign a student to group-based support, to design an individualized support plan, or classify a student as eligible for special education. Each decision is founded upon a judgment regarding whether the student has responded to…
Hmong High School Students in Afterschool: Effects on Achievement, Behavior, and Self-Esteem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyer, Kimberley A. M.; Tracz, Susan M.

2014-01-01

Afterschool programs can support Asian-American young people by providing academic support and culturally specific programming designed to help them bridge their native and adopted cultures. However, little is known about the effect of afterschool participation on academic and social outcomes for Asian-American students. This causal-comparative…
The Effects of Differentiated Instruction Support Inclusion Services on Fifth Grade Reading/Language Arts Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wendt, Stephanie L.

2012-01-01

Using a causal-comparative research design, this study investigated the effectiveness of Differentiated Instruction Support Inclusion Services on fifth grade regular education and gifted students' Reading/Language Arts achievement. The study analyzed and compared the achievement of the regular education students who received no inclusion support…
Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland.

PubMed

Mantwill, Sarah; Schulz, Peter J

2016-01-01

This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. For both immigrant groups the physician's influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p <.05). With regard to coping, both immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p <.05). The only consistent interaction effect that was found indicated that being Albanian-speaking negatively moderated the relationship between physical activity as an attributed cause of back pain and all three identified coping maxims. The study shows that differences in causal attribution and coping maxims between immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship.
Too much sitting and all-cause mortality: is there a causal link?

PubMed

Biddle, Stuart J H; Bennie, Jason A; Bauman, Adrian E; Chau, Josephine Y; Dunstan, David; Owen, Neville; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; van Uffelen, Jannique G Z

2016-07-26

Sedentary behaviours (time spent sitting, with low energy expenditure) are associated with deleterious health outcomes, including all-cause mortality. Whether this association can be considered causal has yet to be established. Using systematic reviews and primary studies from those reviews, we drew upon Bradford Hill's criteria to consider the likelihood that sedentary behaviour in epidemiological studies is likely to be causally related to all-cause (premature) mortality. Searches for systematic reviews on sedentary behaviours and all-cause mortality yielded 386 records which, when judged against eligibility criteria, left eight reviews (addressing 17 primary studies) for analysis. Exposure measures included self-reported total sitting time, TV viewing time, and screen time. Studies included comparisons of a low-sedentary reference group with several higher sedentary categories, or compared the highest versus lowest sedentary behaviour groups. We employed four Bradford Hill criteria: strength of association, consistency, temporality, and dose-response. Evidence supporting causality at the level of each systematic review and primary study was judged using a traffic light system depicting green for causal evidence, amber for mixed or inconclusive evidence, and red for no evidence for causality (either evidence of no effect or no evidence reported). The eight systematic reviews showed evidence for consistency (7 green) and temporality (6 green), and some evidence for strength of association (4 green). There was no evidence for a dose-response relationship (5 red). Five reviews were rated green overall. Twelve (67 %) of the primary studies were rated green, with evidence for strength and temporality. There is reasonable evidence for a likely causal relationship between sedentary behaviour and all-cause mortality based on the epidemiological criteria of strength of association, consistency of effect, and temporality.
The gravity duals of modular Hamiltonians

DOE PAGES

Jafferis, Daniel L.; Suh, S. Josephine

2016-09-12

In this study, we investigate modular Hamiltonians defined with respect to arbitrary spatial regions in quantum field theory states which have semi-classical gravity duals. We find prescriptions in the gravity dual for calculating the action of the modular Hamiltonian on its defining state, including its dual metric, and also on small excitations around the state. Curiously, use of the covariant holographic entanglement entropy formula leads us to the conclusion that the modular Hamiltonian, which in the quantum field theory acts only in the causal completion of the region, does not commute with bulk operators whose entire gauge-invariant description is space-likemore » to the causal completion of the region.« less
The gravity duals of modular Hamiltonians

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jafferis, Daniel L.; Suh, S. Josephine

In this study, we investigate modular Hamiltonians defined with respect to arbitrary spatial regions in quantum field theory states which have semi-classical gravity duals. We find prescriptions in the gravity dual for calculating the action of the modular Hamiltonian on its defining state, including its dual metric, and also on small excitations around the state. Curiously, use of the covariant holographic entanglement entropy formula leads us to the conclusion that the modular Hamiltonian, which in the quantum field theory acts only in the causal completion of the region, does not commute with bulk operators whose entire gauge-invariant description is space-likemore » to the causal completion of the region.« less

Quantifying the causal effects of 20mph zones on road casualties in London via doubly robust estimation.

PubMed

Li, Haojie; Graham, Daniel J

2016-08-01

This paper estimates the causal effect of 20mph zones on road casualties in London. Potential confounders in the key relationship of interest are included within outcome regression and propensity score models, and the models are then combined to form a doubly robust estimator. A total of 234 treated zones and 2844 potential control zones are included in the data sample. The propensity score model is used to select a viable control group which has common support in the covariate distributions. We compare the doubly robust estimates with those obtained using three other methods: inverse probability weighting, regression adjustment, and propensity score matching. The results indicate that 20mph zones have had a significant causal impact on road casualty reduction in both absolute and proportional terms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

PubMed

Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

2014-07-01

Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
Causal Responsibility and Counterfactuals

PubMed Central

Lagnado, David A; Gerstenberg, Tobias; Zultan, Ro'i

2013-01-01

How do people attribute responsibility in situations where the contributions of multiple agents combine to produce a joint outcome? The prevalence of over-determination in such cases makes this a difficult problem for counterfactual theories of causal responsibility. In this article, we explore a general framework for assigning responsibility in multiple agent contexts. We draw on the structural model account of actual causation (e.g., Halpern & Pearl, 2005) and its extension to responsibility judgments (Chockler & Halpern, 2004). We review the main theoretical and empirical issues that arise from this literature and propose a novel model of intuitive judgments of responsibility. This model is a function of both pivotality (whether an agent made a difference to the outcome) and criticality (how important the agent is perceived to be for the outcome, before any actions are taken). The model explains empirical results from previous studies and is supported by a new experiment that manipulates both pivotality and criticality. We also discuss possible extensions of this model to deal with a broader range of causal situations. Overall, our approach emphasizes the close interrelations between causality, counterfactuals, and responsibility attributions. PMID:23855451
Instantaneous and causal connectivity in resting state brain networks derived from functional MRI data.

PubMed

Deshpande, Gopikrishna; Santhanam, Priya; Hu, Xiaoping

2011-01-15

Most neuroimaging studies of resting state networks have concentrated on functional connectivity (FC) based on instantaneous correlation in a single network. In this study we investigated both FC and effective connectivity (EC) based on Granger causality of four important networks at resting state derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging data - default mode network (DMN), hippocampal cortical memory network (HCMN), dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal control network (FPCN). A method called correlation-purged Granger causality analysis was used, not only enabling the simultaneous evaluation of FC and EC of all networks using a single multivariate model, but also accounting for the interaction between them resulting from the smoothing of neuronal activity by hemodynamics. FC was visualized using a force-directed layout upon which causal interactions were overlaid. FC results revealed that DAN is very tightly coupled compared to the other networks while the DMN forms the backbone around which the other networks amalgamate. The pattern of bidirectional causal interactions indicates that posterior cingulate and posterior inferior parietal lobule of DMN act as major hubs. The pattern of unidirectional causal paths revealed that hippocampus and anterior prefrontal cortex (aPFC) receive major inputs, likely reflecting memory encoding/retrieval and cognitive integration, respectively. Major outputs emanating from anterior insula and middle temporal area, which are directed at aPFC, may carry information about interoceptive awareness and external environment, respectively, into aPFC for integration, supporting the hypothesis that aPFC-seeded FPCN acts as a control network. Our findings indicate the following. First, regions whose activities are not synchronized interact via time-delayed causal influences. Second, the causal interactions are organized such that cingulo-parietal regions act as hubs. Finally, segregation of different resting state networks is not clear cut but only by soft boundaries. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Causal Relationships between the Psychological Acceptance Process of Athletic Injury and Athletic Rehabilitation Behavior

PubMed Central

Tatsumi, Tomonori; Takenouchi, Takashi

2014-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to examine the causal relationships between the psychological acceptance process of athletic injury and athletic-rehabilitation behavior. [Subjects] One hundred forty-four athletes who had injury experiences participated in this study, and 133 (mean age = 20.21 years, SD = 1.07; mean weeks without playing sports = 7.97 weeks, SD = 11.26) of them provided valid questionnaire responses which were subjected to analysis. [Methods] The subjects were asked to answer our originally designed questionnaire, the Psychosocial Recovery Factor Scale (PSRF-S), and two other pre-existing scales, the Athletic Injury Psychological Acceptance Scale and the Athletic-Rehabilitation Dedication Scale. [Results] The results of factor analysis indicate “emotional stability”, “social competence in the team”, “temporal perspective”, and “communication with the teammates” are factors of the PSRF-S. Lastly, the causal model in which psychosocial recovery factors are mediated by psychological acceptance of athletic injury, and influence on rehabilitation behaviors, was examined using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of SEM indicate that the factors of emotional stability and temporal perspective are mediated by the psychological acceptance of the injury, which positively influences athletic-rehabilitation dedication. [Conclusion] The causal model was confirmed to be valid. PMID:25202190
Juvenile-onset inflammatory arthritis: a study of adolescents’ beliefs about underlying cause

PubMed Central

Cordingley, Lis; Vracas, Tiffany; Baildam, Eileen; Chieng, Alice; Davidson, Joyce; Foster, Helen E.; Gardner-Medwin, Janet; Wedderburn, Lucy R.; Thomson, Wendy

2012-01-01

Objective. Patients’ beliefs regarding the cause of illness may influence treatment adherence and long-term outcome. Little is known of adolescents’ beliefs regarding the cause of JIA. This study aims to identify adolescents’ beliefs about the underlying cause of their arthritis at first presentation to the paediatric rheumatology department. Methods. One hundred and twenty-two adolescents aged ≥11 years participating in the larger prospective Childhood Arthritis Prospective Study, an inception cohort of childhood-onset inflammatory arthritis, were asked to complete a questionnaire regarding underlying beliefs about their arthritis. The top-listed causes were identified, and associations between beliefs and characteristics of the adolescents and their arthritis were compared across the different causal beliefs. Results. The most common causal beliefs were genetics (27.1%), the immune system (21.3%), accident or injury (15.6%) and infection (13.1%). Association between causal beliefs and gender, disease duration, International League Against Rheumatism subtype and source of referral was observed, although small numbers prevented robust statistical comparisons. Conclusion. This first report on adolescents’ beliefs about the cause of their juvenile arthritis found the most common causal beliefs to be related to genes or the immune system. Brief assessments of adolescents’ beliefs at presentation will enable providers to modify or adapt potentially unhelpful beliefs and provide age-appropriate information regarding arthritis. PMID:22942401
Evidence for Shared Predisposition in the Relationship between Cannabis Use and Subcortical Brain Structure

PubMed Central

Pagliaccio, David; Barch, Deanna M.; Bogdan, Ryan; Wood, Phillip K.; Lynskey, Michael T.; Heath, Andrew C.; Agrawal, Arpana

2015-01-01

Importance Prior neuroimaging studies have suggested that alterations in brain structure may be a consequence of cannabis use. Siblings discordant for cannabis use offer an opportunity to use cross-sectional data to disentangle such causal hypotheses from shared effects of genetics and familial environment on brain structure and cannabis use. Objective To determine whether cannabis use is associated with differences in brain structure in a large sample of twins/siblings and to examine sibling pairs discordant for cannabis use to separate potential causal and predispositional factors linking lifetime cannabis exposure to volumetric alterations. Design Cross-sectional diagnostic interview, behavioral, and neuroimaging data. Setting Community sampling and established family registries. Participants Data from 483 participants (22-35 years old), enrolled in the on-going Human Connectome Project; 262 participants reported cannabis exposure, i.e. ever using cannabis in their lifetime. Main Outcome Measures Whole brain, hippocampus, amygdala, ventral striatum, and orbitofrontal cortex volumes were related to lifetime cannabis use (ever use, age of onset, and frequency of use) using linear regressions. Genetic (ρg) and environmental (ρe) correlations between cannabis use and brain volumes were estimated. Linear mixed-models were used to examine volume differences in sex-matched, concordant unexposed (Npairs=71), exposed (Npairs=81), or exposure discordant (Npairs=89) sibling pairs. Results Cannabis exposure was related to smaller left amygdala (~2.3%) and right ventral striatum volumes (~3.5%). These volumetric differences were within the range of normal variation. The relationship between left amygdala volume and cannabis use was largely due to shared genetic factors (ρg=−0.43, p=0.004), while the origin of the association with right ventral striatum volumes was unclear. Importantly, brain volumes did not differ between sex-matched siblings discordant for use. Both the exposed and unexposed siblings in pairs discordant for cannabis exposure showed reduced amygdala volumes relative to members of concordant unexposed pairs. Conclusions and Relevance Differences in amygdala volume in cannabis users are attributable to common predispositional factors, genetic or environmental in origin, with little support for causal influences. Causal influences, in isolation or in conjunction with predispositional factors, may exist for other brain regions (e.g. ventral striatum) or at more severe levels of cannabis involvement and deserve further study. PMID:26308883
Balanced identity in the minimal groups paradigm.

PubMed

Dunham, Yarrow

2013-01-01

Balanced Identity Theory [1] formalizes a set of relationships between group attitude, group identification, and self-esteem. While these relationships have been demonstrated for familiar and highly salient social categories, questions remain regarding the generality of the balance phenomenon and its causal versus descriptive status. Supporting the generality and rapidity of cognitive balance, four studies demonstrate that the central predictions of balance are supported even for previously unfamiliar "minimal" social groups to which participants have just been randomly assigned. Further, supporting a causal as opposed to merely descriptive interpretation, manipulating any one component of the balance model (group attitude, group identification, or self-esteem) affects at least one of the related components. Interestingly, the broader pattern of cognitive balance was preserved across such manipulations only when the manipulation strengthens as opposes to weakens the manipulated construct. Taken together, these findings indicate that Balanced Identity Theory has promise as a general theory of intergroup attitudes, and that it may be able to shed light on prior inconsistencies concerning the relationship between self-esteem and intergroup bias.
Some guidelines for structural equation modelling in cognitive neuroscience: the case of Charlton et al.'s study on white matter integrity and cognitive ageing.

PubMed

Penke, Lars; Deary, Ian J

2010-09-01

Charlton et al. (2008) (Charlton, R.A., Landua, S., Schiavone, F., Barrick, T.R., Clark, C.A., Markus, H.S., Morris, R.G.A., 2008. Structural equation modelling investigation of age-related variance in executive function and DTI-measured white matter change. Neurobiol. Aging 29, 1547-1555) presented a model that suggests a specific age-related effect of white matter integrity on working memory. We illustrate potential pitfalls of structural equation modelling by criticizing their model for (a) its neglect of latent variables, (b) its complexity, (c) its questionable causal assumptions, (d) the use of empirical model reduction, (e) the mix-up of theoretical perspectives, and (f) the failure to compare alternative models. We show that a more parsimonious model, based solely on the well-established general factor of cognitive ability, fits their data at least as well. Importantly, when modelled this way there is no support for a role of white matter integrity in cognitive aging in this sample, indicating that their conclusion is strongly dependent on how the data are analysed. We suggest that evidence from more conclusive study designs is needed. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Long-Term Heavy Cannabis Use: Implications for Health Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coggans, Niall; Dalgarno, Phil; Johnson, Lindsay; Shewan, David

2004-01-01

There is growing evidence that cannabis can have negative effects on health. While the ongoing debate about the nature and duration of these effects recognizes mild cognitive impairment, the evidence for irreversibility of cognitive impairment and causal links with psychiatric illness is not conclusive. There is undoubtedly potential for…
The Evaluation and Selection of Adequate Causal Models: A Compensatory Education Example.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanaka, Jeffrey S.

1982-01-01

Implications of model evaluation (using traditional chi square goodness of fit statistics, incremental fit indices for covariance structure models, and latent variable coefficients of determination) on substantive conclusions are illustrated with an example examining the effects of participation in a compensatory education program on posttreatment…
Defendant Characteristics and Juridic Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michelini, Ronald L.; Snodgrass, Stephan R.

1980-01-01

Attractiveness of defendant's traits and their relevance to the likelihood of acting criminally were varied. Results supported a causal inference explanation for deciding guilt and a liking-leniency explanation for deciding punishment. (Author/CS)
Does case misclassification threaten the validity of studies investigating the relationship between neck manipulation and vertebral artery dissection stroke? No.

PubMed

Murphy, Donald R; Schneider, Michael J; Perle, Stephen M; Bise, Christopher G; Timko, Michael; Haas, Mitchell

2016-01-01

The purported relationship between cervical manipulative therapy (CMT) and stroke related to vertebral artery dissection (VAD) has been debated for several decades. A large number of publications, from case reports to case-control studies, have investigated this relationship. A recent article suggested that case misclassification in the case-control studies on this topic resulted in biased odds ratios in those studies. Given its rarity, the best epidemiologic research design for investigating the relationship between CMT and VAD is the case-control study. The addition of a case-crossover aspect further strengthens the scientific rigor of such studies by reducing bias. The most recent studies investigating the relationship between CMT and VAD indicate that the relationship is not causal. In fact, a comparable relationship between vertebral artery-related stroke and visits to a primary care physician has been observed. The statistical association between visits to chiropractors and VAD can best be explained as resulting from a patient with early manifestation of VAD (neck pain with or without headache) seeking the services of a chiropractor for relief of this pain. Sometime after the visit the patient experiences VAD-related stroke that would have occurred regardless of the care received. This explanation has been challenged by a recent article putting forth the argument that case misclassification is likely to have biased the odds ratios of the case-control studies that have investigated the association between CMT and vertebral artery related stroke. The challenge particularly focused on one of the case-control studies, which had concluded that the association between CMT and vertebral artery related stroke was not causal. It was suggested by the authors of the recent article that misclassification led to an underestimation of risk. We argue that the information presented in that article does not support the authors' claim for a variety of reasons, including the fact that the assumptions upon which their analysis is based lack substantiation and the fact that any possible misclassification would not have changed the conclusion of the study in question. Current evidence does not support the notion that misclassification threatens the validity of recent case-control studies investigating the relationship between CMT and VAD. Hence, the recent re-analysis cannot refute the conclusion from previous studies that CMT is not a cause of VAD.
Compact stars in the braneworld: A new branch of stellar configurations with arbitrarily large mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lugones, Germán; Arbañil, José D. V.

2017-03-01

We study the properties of compact stars in the Randall-Sundrum type-II braneworld (BW) model. To this end, we solve the braneworld generalization of the stellar structure equations for a static fluid distribution with spherical symmetry considering that the spacetime outside the star is described by a Schwarzschild metric. First, the stellar structure equations are integrated employing the so-called causal limit equation of state (EOS), which is constructed using a well-established EOS at densities below a fiducial density, and the causal EOS P =ρ above it. It is a standard procedure in general relativistic stellar structure calculations to use such EOSs for obtaining a limit in the mass radius diagram, known as the causal limit, above which no stellar configurations are possible if the EOS fulfills the condition that the sound velocity is smaller than the speed of light. We find that the equilibrium solutions in the braneworld model can violate the general relativistic causal limit, and for sufficiently large mass they approach asymptotically to the Schwarzschild limit M =2 R . Then, we investigate the properties of hadronic and strange quark stars using two typical EOSs: a nonlinear relativistic mean-field model for hadronic matter and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) bag model for quark matter. For masses below ˜1.5 M⊙- 2 M⊙ , the mass versus radius curves show the typical behavior found within the frame of general relativity. However, we also find a new branch of stellar configurations that can violate the general relativistic causal limit and that, in principle, may have an arbitrarily large mass. The stars belonging to this new branch are supported against collapse by the nonlocal effects of the bulk on the brane. We also show that these stars are always stable under small radial perturbations. These results support the idea that traces of extra dimensions might be found in astrophysics, specifically through the analysis of masses and radii of compact objects.
Is there a causal link between knee loading and knee osteoarthritis progression? A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies and randomised trials.

PubMed

Henriksen, Marius; Creaby, Mark W; Lund, Hans; Juhl, Carsten; Christensen, Robin

2014-07-15

We performed a systematic review, meta-analysis and assessed the evidence supporting a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression. Systematic review, meta-analysis and application of Bradford Hill's considerations on causation. We searched MEDLINE, Scopus, AMED, CINAHL and SportsDiscus for prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) from 1950 through October 2013. We selected cohort studies and RCTs in which estimates of knee joint loading during walking were used to predict structural knee OA progression assessed by X-ray or MRI. Meta-analysis was performed to estimate the combined OR for structural disease progression with higher baseline loading. The likelihood of a causal link between knee joint loading and OA progression was assessed from cohort studies using the Bradford Hill guidelines to derive a 0-4 causation score based on four criteria and examined for confirmation in RCTs. Of the 1078 potentially eligible articles, 5 prospective cohort studies were included. The studies included a total of 452 patients relating joint loading to disease progression over 12-72 months. There were very serious limitations associated with the methodological quality of the included studies. The combined OR for disease progression was 1.90 (95% CI 0.85 to 4.25; I(2)=77%) for each one-unit increment in baseline knee loading. The combined causation score was 0, indicating no causal association between knee loading and knee OA progression. No RCTs were found to confirm or refute the findings from the cohort studies. There is very limited and low-quality evidence to support for a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural progression of knee OA. CRD42012003253. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Graphical modeling of gene expression in monocytes suggests molecular mechanisms explaining increased atherosclerosis in smokers.

PubMed

Verdugo, Ricardo A; Zeller, Tanja; Rotival, Maxime; Wild, Philipp S; Münzel, Thomas; Lackner, Karl J; Weidmann, Henri; Ninio, Ewa; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Cambien, François; Blankenberg, Stefan; Tiret, Laurence

2013-01-01

Smoking is a risk factor for atherosclerosis with reported widespread effects on gene expression in circulating blood cells. We hypothesized that a molecular signature mediating the relation between smoking and atherosclerosis may be found in the transcriptome of circulating monocytes. Genome-wide expression profiles and counts of atherosclerotic plaques in carotid arteries were collected in 248 smokers and 688 non-smokers from the general population. Patterns of co-expressed genes were identified by Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and network structure of the pattern-specific gene modules was inferred by the PC-algorithm. A likelihood-based causality test was implemented to select patterns that fit models containing a path "smoking→gene expression→plaques". Robustness of the causal inference was assessed by bootstrapping. At a FDR ≤0.10, 3,368 genes were associated to smoking or plaques, of which 93% were associated to smoking only. SASH1 showed the strongest association to smoking and PPARG the strongest association to plaques. Twenty-nine gene patterns were identified by ICA. Modules containing SASH1 and PPARG did not show evidence for the "smoking→gene expression→plaques" causality model. Conversely, three modules had good support for causal effects and exhibited a network topology consistent with gene expression mediating the relation between smoking and plaques. The network with the strongest support for causal effects was connected to plaques through SLC39A8, a gene with known association to HDL-cholesterol and cellular uptake of cadmium from tobacco, while smoking was directly connected to GAS6, a gene reported to have anti-inflammatory effects in atherosclerosis and to be up-regulated in the placenta of women smoking during pregnancy. Our analysis of the transcriptome of monocytes recovered genes relevant for association to smoking and atherosclerosis, and connected genes that before, were only studied in separate contexts. Inspection of correlation structure revealed candidates that would be missed by expression-phenotype association analysis alone.
Graphical Modeling of Gene Expression in Monocytes Suggests Molecular Mechanisms Explaining Increased Atherosclerosis in Smokers

PubMed Central

Verdugo, Ricardo A.; Zeller, Tanja; Rotival, Maxime; Wild, Philipp S.; Münzel, Thomas; Lackner, Karl J.; Weidmann, Henri; Ninio, Ewa; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Cambien, François; Blankenberg, Stefan; Tiret, Laurence

2013-01-01

Smoking is a risk factor for atherosclerosis with reported widespread effects on gene expression in circulating blood cells. We hypothesized that a molecular signature mediating the relation between smoking and atherosclerosis may be found in the transcriptome of circulating monocytes. Genome-wide expression profiles and counts of atherosclerotic plaques in carotid arteries were collected in 248 smokers and 688 non-smokers from the general population. Patterns of co-expressed genes were identified by Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and network structure of the pattern-specific gene modules was inferred by the PC-algorithm. A likelihood-based causality test was implemented to select patterns that fit models containing a path “smoking→gene expression→plaques”. Robustness of the causal inference was assessed by bootstrapping. At a FDR ≤0.10, 3,368 genes were associated to smoking or plaques, of which 93% were associated to smoking only. SASH1 showed the strongest association to smoking and PPARG the strongest association to plaques. Twenty-nine gene patterns were identified by ICA. Modules containing SASH1 and PPARG did not show evidence for the “smoking→gene expression→plaques” causality model. Conversely, three modules had good support for causal effects and exhibited a network topology consistent with gene expression mediating the relation between smoking and plaques. The network with the strongest support for causal effects was connected to plaques through SLC39A8, a gene with known association to HDL-cholesterol and cellular uptake of cadmium from tobacco, while smoking was directly connected to GAS6, a gene reported to have anti-inflammatory effects in atherosclerosis and to be up-regulated in the placenta of women smoking during pregnancy. Our analysis of the transcriptome of monocytes recovered genes relevant for association to smoking and atherosclerosis, and connected genes that before, were only studied in separate contexts. Inspection of correlation structure revealed candidates that would be missed by expression-phenotype association analysis alone. PMID:23372645
Taxonomic revision and phylogenetic analyses of rubber powdery mildew fungi.

PubMed

Liyanage, K K; Khan, Sehroon; Brooks, Siraprapa; Mortimer, Peter E; Karunarathna, Samantha C; Xu, Jianchu; Hyde, Kevin D

2017-04-01

Powdery mildew is a fungal disease that infects a wide range of plants, including rubber trees, which results in a reduction of latex yields of up to 45%. The causal agent of powdery mildew of rubber was first described as Oidium heveae, but later morpho-molecular research suggested that in the past, O. heveae has been confused with Erysiphe quercicola. However, it is still under debate whether the causal agent should be classified as a species of the genus Erysiphe emend. or Golovinomyces and Podosphaera, respectively. Therefore, the aim of this study was to undertake the morpho-molecular characterization of powdery mildew species associated with rubber trees, thus resolving these taxonomic issues. Morphological observation under light and scanning electron microscopes (SEM) clearly identified two morphotypes of the rubber powdery mildew. With the support of morphological and phylogenetic data, one of the two morphotypes was identified as the asexual morph of E. quercicola, while the second morphotype is still insufficiently known and according to the morphological results obtained we assume that it might belong to the genus Golovinomyces. More collections and additional molecular data are required for final conclusions regarding the exact taxonomic position of the second morphotype of rubber powdery mildew and its relation to the name O. heveae. The haplotype analysis identified eight haplotype groups of E. quercicola indicating the high genetic diversity of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Building phenotype networks to improve QTL detection: a comparative analysis of fatty acid and fat traits in pigs.

PubMed

Yang, B; Navarro, N; Noguera, J L; Muñoz, M; Guo, T F; Yang, K X; Ma, J W; Folch, J M; Huang, L S; Pérez-Enciso, M

2011-10-01

Models in QTL mapping can be improved by considering all potential variables, i.e. we can use remaining traits other than the trait under study as potential predictors. QTL mapping is often conducted by correcting for a few fixed effects or covariates (e.g. sex, age), although many traits with potential causal relationships between them are recorded. In this work, we evaluate by simulation several procedures to identify optimum models in QTL scans: forward selection, undirected dependency graph and QTL-directed dependency graph (QDG). The latter, QDG, performed better in terms of power and false discovery rate and was applied to fatty acid (FA) composition and fat deposition traits in two pig F2 crosses from China and Spain. Compared with the typical QTL mapping, QDG approach revealed several new QTL. To the contrary, several FA QTL on chromosome 4 (e.g. Palmitic, C16:0; Stearic, C18:0) detected by typical mapping vanished after adjusting for phenotypic covariates in QDG mapping. This suggests that the QTL detected in typical mapping could be indirect. When a QTL is supported by both approaches, there is an increased confidence that the QTL have a primary effect on the corresponding trait. An example is a QTL for C16:1 on chromosome 8. In conclusion, mapping QTL based on causal phenotypic networks can increase power and help to make more biologically sound hypothesis on the genetic architecture of complex traits. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
Trends in US movie tobacco portrayal since 1950: a historical analysis.

PubMed

Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Dan

2010-06-01

Portrayal of tobacco use in films has been causally linked to youth smoking initiation. However, findings regarding trends in portrayal in US films since 1950 are inconsistent, potentially due to differences in sampling densities, intercoder reliabilities and time periods covered. The present study was designed to overcome these inconsistencies with a common sampling frame and methodology. A half sample of the 30 top-grossing US films per year from 1950 to 2006 (N=855) was coded in 5-min segments for total tobacco-related content and main character tobacco use. Film tobacco trends were identified using linear regression and compared to national per capita cigarette consumption and historically significant tobacco control events. Tobacco content declined considerably since 1950. Total tobacco-related content peaked around 1961, while the decline in portrayal of main character use was already underway in 1950. Cigarette consumption peaked around 1966 with a trend that closely paralleled total tobacco content and that coincided with major tobacco control events. This study, which had high reliability, dense sampling and covered a long time period, indicates that tobacco content has declined in top-ranked US movies since 1950 with a trend in total tobacco content that closely paralleled the drop in per capita cigarette consumption and the increase in significant tobacco control efforts. Despite the inability to draw causal conclusions, tobacco portrayal in films may serve as barometer of societal support for the habit and thus efforts should continue to limit exposure to such content.

The Relationship Between Psychosocial Stress and Allergic Disease Among Children and Adolescents in Gwangyang Bay, Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Mee-Ri; Son, Bu-Soon; Park, Yoo-Ri; Kim, Hye-Mi; Moon, Jong-Youn; Lee, Yong-Jin

2012-01-01

Objectives Stress is considered a causal factor in many diseases, allergic disease being one of them. The prevalence of allergic disease is increasing in Korea, but the relationship between allergic symptoms and stress is not empirically well known. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between allergy-related symptoms and stress in children and adolescents. Methods We investigated 698 children and adolescents living in Gwangyang Bay, Korea, using a multi-stage cluster sampling method. Using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood and the Psychosocial Well-being Index, these subjects were surveyed on allergy-related symptoms and psychosocial stressors in their lives, respectively. We used a multivariate logistic analysis for odds ratios for the complaint rate of allergic symptoms, after adjusting for age, gender, household income, body mass index, and residence. Results After adjustments, lifetime rhinitis (odds ratio [OR], 1.024), rhinoconjunctivitis (OR, 1.090), diagnosis of itchy eczema (OR, 1.040), treatment of itchy eczema (OR, 1.049), 12-month allergic conjunctivitis (OR, 1.026), diagnosis of allergic conjunctivitis (OR, 1.031), and treatment of allergic conjunctivitis (OR, 1.034) were found to be significantly associated with stress. Conclusions Our results support the notion that there is a relationship between stress and allergic symptoms in children and adolescents. Further research into any causal relationship between stress and allergies, as well as preventative public health plans for decreasing stress in children and adolescents are needed. PMID:23230467
Associations of triglyceride levels with longevity and frailty: A Mendelian randomization analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Zuyun; Burgess, Stephen; Wang, Zhengdong; Deng, Wan; Chu, Xuefeng; Cai, Jian; Zhu, Yinsheng; Shi, Jianming; Xie, Xuejuan; Wang, Yong; Jin, Li; Wang, Xiaofeng

2017-01-01

Observational studies suggest associations of triglyceride levels with longevity and frailty. This study aimed to test whether the associations are causal. We used data from the Rugao Longevity and Ageing Study, a population-based cohort study performed in Rugao, China. A variant in the APOA5 gene region (rs662799) was used as the genetic instrument. Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to examine the associations of genetically predicted triglycerides with two ageing phenotypes – longevity ( ≥95 years) and frailty (modified Fried frailty phenotype and Rockwood frailty index). C allele of rs662799 was robustly associated with higher triglyceride levels in the comparison group (β = 0.301 mmol/L per allele, p < 0.001), with an F statistic of 95.3 and R2 = 0.040. However MR analysis did not provide strong evidence for an association between genetically predicted triglyceride levels and probability of longevity (OR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.35, 1.07 per 1 mmol/L increase in triglycerides). In the ageing arm (70–84 years), genetically predicted triglyceride levels were not associated with the frailty index (β = 0.008; 95% CI: −0.013, 0.029) or the frailty phenotype (OR: 1.91; 95% CI: 0.84, 4.37). In conclusion, there is currently a lack of sufficient evidence to support causal associations of triglyceride levels with longevity and frailty in elderly populations. PMID:28134330
Hypothesised mechanisms of swimming-related death: a systematic review.

PubMed

Asplund, Chad A; Creswell, Lawrence L

2016-11-01

Recent reports from triathlon and competitive open-water swimming indicate that these events have higher rates of death compared with other forms of endurance sport. The potential causal mechanism for swimming-related death is unclear. To examine available studies on the hypothesised mechanisms of swimming-related death to determine the most likely aetiologies. MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (1950 to present) were searched, yielding 1950 potential results, which after title and citation reviews were reduced to 83 possible reports. Studies included discussed mechanisms of death during swimming in humans, and were Level 4 evidence or higher. A total of 17 studies (366 total swimmers) were included for further analysis: 5 investigating hyperthermia/hypothermia, 7 examining cardiac mechanisms and responses, and 5 determining the presence of pulmonary edema. The studies provide inconsistent and limited-quality or disease-oriented evidence that make definitive conclusions difficult. The available evidence is limited but may suggest that cardiac arrhythmias are the most likely aetiology of swimming-related death. While symptoms of pulmonary edema may occur during swimming, current evidence does not support swimming-induced pulmonary edema as a frequent cause of swimming-related death, nor is there evidence to link hypothermia or hyperthermia as a causal mechanism. Further higher level studies are needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
A review of multiple chemical sensitivity

PubMed Central

Graveling, R. A.; Pilkington, A.; George, J. P.; Butler, M. P.; Tannahill, S. N.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To review critically the scientific literature on multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS). Definitions of MCS vary but, for this review, a broad definition of MCS was adopted as symptoms in more than one organ system elicited by various unrelated chemicals at very low levels of exposure. METHODS: A systematic literature search identified several hundred references from which key papers were selected. Two questions are considered, does MCS exist and what causes MCS. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Despite extensive literature on the existence of MCS, there is no unequivocal epidemiological evidence; quantitative exposure data are singularly lacking; and qualitative exposure data are, at best, patchy. There is also some evidence to suggest that MCS is sometimes used as an indiscriminate diagnosis for undiagnosed disorders. Despite this, the collated evidence suggests that MCS does exist although its prevalence generally seems to be exaggerated. Many causal mechanisms have been proposed, some suggesting a physical origin- -such as MCS reflecting an immunological overload (total body load)-- others favouring a psychological basis--such as MCS symptoms being evoked as part of a conditioned response to previous trauma. The available evidence seems most strongly to support a physical mechanism involving sensitisation of part of the midbrain known as the limbic system. However, it is increasingly being recognised that the psychological milieu of a person can considerably influence physical illness, either through generating a predisposition to disease or in the subsequent prognosis. Work is needed to establish the prevalence of MCS and to confirm or refute selected causal mechanisms. PMID:10448311
Effective connectivity of brain regions underlying third-party punishment: Functional MRI and Granger causality evidence.

PubMed

Bellucci, Gabriele; Chernyak, Sergey; Hoffman, Morris; Deshpande, Gopikrishna; Dal Monte, Olga; Knutson, Kristine M; Grafman, Jordan; Krueger, Frank

2017-04-01

Third-party punishment (TPP) for norm violations is an essential deterrent in large-scale human societies, and builds on two essential cognitive functions: evaluating legal responsibility and determining appropriate punishment. Despite converging evidence that TPP is mediated by a specific set of brain regions, little is known about their effective connectivity (direction and strength of connections). Applying parametric event-related functional MRI in conjunction with multivariate Granger causality analysis, we asked healthy participants to estimate how much punishment a hypothetical perpetrator deserves for intentionally committing criminal offenses varying in levels of harm. Our results confirmed that TPP legal decisions are based on two domain-general networks: the mentalizing network for evaluating legal responsibility and the central-executive network for determining appropriate punishment. Further, temporal pole (TP) and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (PFC) emerged as hubs of the mentalizing network, uniquely generating converging output connections to ventromedial PFC, temporo-parietal junction, and posterior cingulate. In particular, dorsomedial PFC received inputs only from TP and both its activation and its connectivity to dorsolateral PFC correlated with degree of punishment. This supports the hypothesis that dorsomedial PFC acts as the driver of the TPP activation pattern, leading to the decision on the appropriate punishment. In conclusion, these results advance our understanding of the organizational elements of the TPP brain networks and provide better insights into the mental states of judges and jurors tasked with blaming and punishing legal wrongs.
Functional neural circuits that underlie developmental stuttering

PubMed Central

Zhao, Guihu; Huo, Yuankai; Herder, Carl L.; Sikora, Chamonix O.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify differences in functional and effective brain connectivity between persons who stutter (PWS) and typically developing (TD) fluent speakers, and to assess whether those differences can serve as biomarkers to distinguish PWS from TD controls. We acquired resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data in 44 PWS and 50 TD controls. We then used Independent Component Analysis (ICA) together with Hierarchical Partner Matching (HPM) to identify networks of robust, functionally connected brain regions that were highly reproducible across participants, and we assessed whether connectivity differed significantly across diagnostic groups. We then used Granger Causality (GC) to study the causal interactions (effective connectivity) between the regions that ICA and HPM identified. Finally, we used a kernel support vector machine to assess how well these measures of functional connectivity and granger causality discriminate PWS from TD controls. Functional connectivity was stronger in PWS compared with TD controls in the supplementary motor area (SMA) and primary motor cortices, but weaker in inferior frontal cortex (IFG, Broca’s area), caudate, putamen, and thalamus. Additionally, causal influences were significantly weaker in PWS from the IFG to SMA, and from the basal ganglia to IFG through the thalamus, compared to TD controls. ICA and GC indices together yielded an accuracy of 92.7% in classifying PWS from TD controls. Our findings suggest the presence of dysfunctional circuits that support speech planning and timing cues for the initiation and execution of motor sequences in PWS. Our high accuracy of classification further suggests that these aberrant brain features may serve as robust biomarkers for PWS. PMID:28759567
Functional neural circuits that underlie developmental stuttering.

PubMed

Qiao, Jianping; Wang, Zhishun; Zhao, Guihu; Huo, Yuankai; Herder, Carl L; Sikora, Chamonix O; Peterson, Bradley S

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify differences in functional and effective brain connectivity between persons who stutter (PWS) and typically developing (TD) fluent speakers, and to assess whether those differences can serve as biomarkers to distinguish PWS from TD controls. We acquired resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data in 44 PWS and 50 TD controls. We then used Independent Component Analysis (ICA) together with Hierarchical Partner Matching (HPM) to identify networks of robust, functionally connected brain regions that were highly reproducible across participants, and we assessed whether connectivity differed significantly across diagnostic groups. We then used Granger Causality (GC) to study the causal interactions (effective connectivity) between the regions that ICA and HPM identified. Finally, we used a kernel support vector machine to assess how well these measures of functional connectivity and granger causality discriminate PWS from TD controls. Functional connectivity was stronger in PWS compared with TD controls in the supplementary motor area (SMA) and primary motor cortices, but weaker in inferior frontal cortex (IFG, Broca's area), caudate, putamen, and thalamus. Additionally, causal influences were significantly weaker in PWS from the IFG to SMA, and from the basal ganglia to IFG through the thalamus, compared to TD controls. ICA and GC indices together yielded an accuracy of 92.7% in classifying PWS from TD controls. Our findings suggest the presence of dysfunctional circuits that support speech planning and timing cues for the initiation and execution of motor sequences in PWS. Our high accuracy of classification further suggests that these aberrant brain features may serve as robust biomarkers for PWS.
A Causal-Comparative Analysis of the Effects of a Student Support Team (SST) Intervention Model at a Secondary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Mid D.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this research was to identify and examine the effectiveness of a "Student Support Team" (SST) intervention model designed to increase the performance of struggling secondary students and to help them achieve prescribed state standards on the mathematics "Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS)"…
The Effects of Behavior-Based Support Services on Social Communication among High School Students with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yu, Jennifer W.; Wei, Xin; Wagner, Mary

2014-01-01

This study used propensity score techniques on data from the National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 to assess the causal relationship between speech and behavior-based support services and rates of social communication among high school students with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Findings indicate that receptive language problems were…
Correlation set analysis: detecting active regulators in disease populations using prior causal knowledge

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Identification of active causal regulators is a crucial problem in understanding mechanism of diseases or finding drug targets. Methods that infer causal regulators directly from primary data have been proposed and successfully validated in some cases. These methods necessarily require very large sample sizes or a mix of different data types. Recent studies have shown that prior biological knowledge can successfully boost a method's ability to find regulators. Results We present a simple data-driven method, Correlation Set Analysis (CSA), for comprehensively detecting active regulators in disease populations by integrating co-expression analysis and a specific type of literature-derived causal relationships. Instead of investigating the co-expression level between regulators and their regulatees, we focus on coherence of regulatees of a regulator. Using simulated datasets we show that our method performs very well at recovering even weak regulatory relationships with a low false discovery rate. Using three separate real biological datasets we were able to recover well known and as yet undescribed, active regulators for each disease population. The results are represented as a rank-ordered list of regulators, and reveals both single and higher-order regulatory relationships. Conclusions CSA is an intuitive data-driven way of selecting directed perturbation experiments that are relevant to a disease population of interest and represent a starting point for further investigation. Our findings demonstrate that combining co-expression analysis on regulatee sets with a literature-derived network can successfully identify causal regulators and help develop possible hypothesis to explain disease progression. PMID:22443377
Age- and sex-specific causal effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H M; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S; de Bruijn, Renée F A G; Willems, Sara M; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S; Moreno, Luis A; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W G; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Ikram, M Arfan; Franco, Oscar H; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D; Penninx, Brenda W; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J; Montgomery, Grant W; Whitfield, John B; Martin, Nicholas G; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D; Magnusson, Patrik K; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I; Nilsson, Peter M; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I; Ingelsson, Erik

2015-05-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.
Instrumental Variable Analysis with a Nonlinear Exposure–Outcome Relationship

PubMed Central

Davies, Neil M.; Thompson, Simon G.

2014-01-01

Background: Instrumental variable methods can estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome using observational data. Many instrumental variable methods assume that the exposure–outcome relation is linear, but in practice this assumption is often in doubt, or perhaps the shape of the relation is a target for investigation. We investigate this issue in the context of Mendelian randomization, the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables. Methods: Using simulations, we demonstrate the performance of a simple linear instrumental variable method when the true shape of the exposure–outcome relation is not linear. We also present a novel method for estimating the effect of the exposure on the outcome within strata of the exposure distribution. This enables the estimation of localized average causal effects within quantile groups of the exposure or as a continuous function of the exposure using a sliding window approach. Results: Our simulations suggest that linear instrumental variable estimates approximate a population-averaged causal effect. This is the average difference in the outcome if the exposure for every individual in the population is increased by a fixed amount. Estimates of localized average causal effects reveal the shape of the exposure–outcome relation for a variety of models. These methods are used to investigate the relations between body mass index and a range of cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions: Nonlinear exposure–outcome relations should not be a barrier to instrumental variable analyses. When the exposure–outcome relation is not linear, either a population-averaged causal effect or the shape of the exposure–outcome relation can be estimated. PMID:25166881
Reward-Guided Learning with and without Causal Attribution

PubMed Central

Jocham, Gerhard; Brodersen, Kay H.; Constantinescu, Alexandra O.; Kahn, Martin C.; Ianni, Angela M.; Walton, Mark E.; Rushworth, Matthew F.S.; Behrens, Timothy E.J.

2016-01-01

Summary When an organism receives a reward, it is crucial to know which of many candidate actions caused this reward. However, recent work suggests that learning is possible even when this most fundamental assumption is not met. We used novel reward-guided learning paradigms in two fMRI studies to show that humans deploy separable learning mechanisms that operate in parallel. While behavior was dominated by precise contingent learning, it also revealed hallmarks of noncontingent learning strategies. These learning mechanisms were separable behaviorally and neurally. Lateral orbitofrontal cortex supported contingent learning and reflected contingencies between outcomes and their causal choices. Amygdala responses around reward times related to statistical patterns of learning. Time-based heuristic mechanisms were related to activity in sensorimotor corticostriatal circuitry. Our data point to the existence of several learning mechanisms in the human brain, of which only one relies on applying known rules about the causal structure of the task. PMID:26971947
The Causal Ordering of Prominence and Salience in Identity Theory: An Empirical Examination

PubMed Central

Brenner, Philip S.; Serpe, Richard T.; Stryker, Sheldon

2016-01-01

Identity theory invokes two distinct but related concepts, identity salience and prominence, to explain how the organization of identities that make up the self impacts the probability that a given identity is situationally enacted. However, much extant research has failed to clearly distinguish between salience and prominence, and their empirical relationship has not been adequately investigated, impeding a solid understanding of the significance and role of each in a general theory of the self. This study examines their causal ordering using three waves of panel data from 48 universities focusing on respondents’ identities as science students. Analyses strongly support a causal ordering from prominence to salience. We provide theoretical and empirical grounds to justify this ordering while acknowledging potential variation in its strength across identities. Finally, we offer recommendations about the use of prominence and salience when measures of one or both are available or when analyses use cross-sectional data. PMID:27284212
DNA Methylation and BMI: Investigating Identified Methylation Sites at HIF3A in a Causal Framework

PubMed Central

Richmond, Rebecca C.; Ward, Mary E.; Fraser, Abigail; Lyttleton, Oliver; McArdle, Wendy L.; Ring, Susan M.; Gaunt, Tom R.; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L.

2016-01-01

Multiple differentially methylated sites and regions associated with adiposity have now been identified in large-scale cross-sectional studies. We tested for replication of associations between previously identified CpG sites at HIF3A and adiposity in ∼1,000 mother-offspring pairs from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Availability of methylation and adiposity measures at multiple time points, as well as genetic data, allowed us to assess the temporal associations between adiposity and methylation and to make inferences regarding causality and directionality. Overall, our results were discordant with those expected if HIF3A methylation has a causal effect on BMI and provided more evidence for causality in the reverse direction (i.e., an effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation). These results are based on robust evidence from longitudinal analyses and were also partially supported by Mendelian randomization analysis, although this latter analysis was underpowered to detect a causal effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation. Our results also highlight an apparent long-lasting intergenerational influence of maternal BMI on offspring methylation at this locus, which may confound associations between own adiposity and HIF3A methylation. Further work is required to replicate and uncover the mechanisms underlying the direct and intergenerational effect of adiposity on DNA methylation. PMID:26861784
Outcomes of role stress: a multisample constructive replication.

PubMed

Kemery, E R; Bedeian, A G; Mossholder, K W; Touliatos, J

1985-06-01

Responses from four separate samples of accountants and hospital employees provided a constructive replication of the Bedeian and Armenakis (1981) model of the causal nexus between role stress and selected outcome variables. We investigated the relationship between both role ambiguity and role conflict--as specific forms of role stress--and job-related tension, job satisfaction, and propensity to leave, using LISREL IV, a technique capable of providing statistical data for a hypothesized population model, as well as for specific causal paths. Results, which support the Bedeian and Armenakis model, are discussed in light of previous research.
The Reactive-Causal Architecture: Introducing an Emotion Model along with Theories of Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, Ali Orhan; Orgun, Mehmet Ali

In the entertainment application area, one of the major aims is to develop believable agents. To achieve this aim, agents should be highly autonomous, situated, flexible, and display affect. The Reactive-Causal Architecture (ReCau) is proposed to simulate these core attributes. In its current form, ReCau cannot explain the effects of emotions on intelligent behaviour. This study aims is to further improve the emotion model of ReCau to explain the effects of emotions on intelligent behaviour. This improvement allows ReCau to be emotional to support the development of believable agents.
The Development of Intrinsic Motivation for Physical Activity

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

are said to maintain an impersonal causality orientation and operate through amotivation . In conclusion, it’s the interaction of variables, the... Amotivation External Regulation Introjected Regulation Integrated Regulation Intrinsic Motivation Unintentional action Factors clearly...Control > > > - 12 determination or autonomy in the situation. It runs from amotivation , in which little self- determination is able to be
Family Selection and Child Care Experiences: Implications for Studies of Child Outcomes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burchinal, Margaret R.; Nelson, Lauren

2000-01-01

Discusses family selection issues that should be considered in child care research, and evidence demonstrating why each should be considered. Issues include whether causal inferences can be made from observational studies and the impact on conclusions from regression analyses that include highly correlated measures of child care experiences,…
Child Maltreatment and Children's Developmental Trajectories in Early to Middle Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Font, Sarah A.; Berger, Lawrence M.

2015-01-01

Associations between experiencing child maltreatment and adverse developmental outcomes are widely studied, yet conclusions regarding the extent to which effects are bidirectional, and whether they are likely causal, remain elusive. This study uses the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a birth cohort of 4,898 children followed from birth…

The Study Review Process. WWC Process Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

What Works Clearinghouse, 2017

2017-01-01

Many studies of education interventions make claims about impacts on students' outcomes. Some studies have designs that enable readers to make causal inferences about the effects of an intervention but others have designs that do not permit these types of conclusions. To help policymakers, practitioners, and others make sense of study results, the…
Effect of Religious Attendance on Years of Schooling in the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohanty, Madhu S.

2016-01-01

Using data from the USA, the study demonstrates that an individual's completed years of schooling later in life is positively related to his/her frequency of religious attendance during youth. Using the propensity score matching technique, the study shows that this relationship is causal. This conclusion remains valid for youths of different…
Planning for the Human Dimensions of Oil Spills and Spill Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webler, Thomas; Lord, Fabienne

2010-04-01

Oil spill contingency planners need an improved approach to understanding and planning for the human dimensions of oil spills. Drawing on existing literature in social impact assessment, natural hazards, human ecology, adaptive management, global change and sustainability, we develop an integrative approach to understanding and portraying the human dimensions impacts of stressors associated with oil spill events. Our approach is based on three fundamental conclusions that are drawn from this literature review. First, it is productive to acknowledge that, while stressors can produce human impacts directly, they mainly affect intermediary processes and changes to these processes produce human impacts. Second, causal chain modeling taken from hazard management literature provides a means to document how oil spill stressors change processes and produce human impacts. Third, concepts from the global change literature on vulnerability enrich causal models in ways that make more obvious how management interventions lessen hazards and mitigate associated harm. Using examples from recent spill events, we illustrate how these conclusions can be used to diagrammatically portray the human dimensions of oil spills.
A Longitudinal Examination of the Hopelessness Theory of Depression in People Who Have Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Kneebone, I. I.; Guerrier, S.; Dunmore, E.; Jones, E.; Fife-Schaw, C.

2015-01-01

Purpose. Hopelessness theory predicts that negative attributional style will interact with negative life events over time to predict depression. The intention of this study was to test this in a population who are at greater risk of negative life events, people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Method. Data, including measures of attributional style, negative life events, and depressive symptoms, were collected via postal survey in 3 phases, each one a year apart. Results. Responses were received from over 380 participants at each study phase. Negative attributional style was consistently able to predict future depressive symptoms at low to moderate levels of association; however, this ability was not sustained when depressive symptoms at Phase 1 were controlled for. No substantial evidence to support the hypothesised interaction of negative attributional style and negative life events was found. Conclusions. Findings were not supportive of the causal interaction proposed by the hopelessness theory of depression. Further work considering other time frames, using methods to prime attributional style before assessment and specifically assessing the hopelessness subtype of depression, may prove to be more fruitful. Intervention directly to address attributional style should also be considered. PMID:26290622
Viral infections and breast cancer - A current perspective.

PubMed

Gannon, O M; Antonsson, A; Bennett, I C; Saunders, N A

2018-04-28

Sporadic human breast cancer is the most common cancer to afflict women. Since the discovery, decades ago, of the oncogenic mouse mammary tumour virus, there has been significant interest in the potential aetiologic role of infectious agents in sporadic human breast cancer. To address this, many studies have examined the presence of viruses (e.g. papillomaviruses, herpes viruses and retroviruses), endogenous retroviruses and more recently, microbes, as a means of implicating them in the aetiology of human breast cancer. Such studies have generated conflicting experimental and clinical reports of the role of infection in breast cancer. This review evaluates the current evidence for a productive oncogenic viral infection in human breast cancer, with a focus on the integration of sensitive and specific next generation sequencing technologies with pathogen discovery. Collectively, the majority of the recent literature using the more powerful next generation sequencing technologies fail to support an oncogenic viral infection being involved in disease causality in breast cancer. In balance, the weight of the current experimental evidence supports the conclusion that viral infection is unlikely to play a significant role in the aetiology of breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Evaluation of UK Integrated Care Pilots: research protocol

PubMed Central

Ling, Tom; Bardsley, Martin; Adams, John; Lewis, Richard; Roland, Martin

2010-01-01

Background In response to concerns that the needs of the aging population for well-integrated care were increasing, the English National Health Service (NHS) appointed 16 Integrated Care Pilots following a national competition. The pilots have a range of aims including development of new organisational structures to support integration, changes in staff roles, reducing unscheduled emergency hospital admissions, reduced length of hospital stay, increasing patient satisfaction, and reducing cost. This paper describes the evaluation of the initiative which has been commissioned. Study design and data collection methods A mixed methods approach has been adopted including interviews with staff and patients, non-participant observation of meetings, structured written feedback from sites, questionnaires to patients and staff, and analysis of routinely collected hospital utilisation data for patients/service users. The qualitative analysis aims to identify the approaches taken to integration by the sites, the benefits which result, the context in which benefits have resulted, and the mechanisms by which they occur. Methods of analysis The quantitative analysis adopts a ‘difference in differences’ approach comparing health care utilisation before and after the intervention with risk-matched controls. The qualitative data analysis adopts a ‘theory of change’ approach in which we triangulate data from the quantitative analysis with qualitative data in order to describe causal effects (what happens when an independent variable changes) and causal mechanisms (what connects causes to their effects). An economic analysis will identify what incremental resources are required to make integration succeed and how they can be combined efficiently to produce better outcomes for patients. Conclusion This evaluation will produce a portfolio of evidence aimed at strengthening the evidence base for integrated care, and in particular identifying the context in which interventions are likely to be effective. These data will support a series of evaluation judgements aimed at reducing uncertainties about the role of integrated care in improving the efficient and effective delivery of healthcare. PMID:20922068
Selection and explosive growth alter genetic architecture and hamper the detection of causal rare variants.

PubMed

Uricchio, Lawrence H; Zaitlen, Noah A; Ye, Chun Jimmie; Witte, John S; Hernandez, Ryan D

2016-07-01

The role of rare alleles in complex phenotypes has been hotly debated, but most rare variant association tests (RVATs) do not account for the evolutionary forces that affect genetic architecture. Here, we use simulation and numerical algorithms to show that explosive population growth, as experienced by human populations, can dramatically increase the impact of very rare alleles on trait variance. We then assess the ability of RVATs to detect causal loci using simulations and human RNA-seq data. Surprisingly, we find that statistical performance is worst for phenotypes in which genetic variance is due mainly to rare alleles, and explosive population growth decreases power. Although many studies have attempted to identify causal rare variants, few have reported novel associations. This has sometimes been interpreted to mean that rare variants make negligible contributions to complex trait heritability. Our work shows that RVATs are not robust to realistic human evolutionary forces, so general conclusions about the impact of rare variants on complex traits may be premature. © 2016 Uricchio et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.
A proposed World Council on Epidemiology and Causation: summary of feedback and considerations in an international workshop.

PubMed

Bhopal, Raj

2017-03-01

Rigorous evaluation of associations in epidemiology is essential, especially given big data, data mining, and hypothesis-free analyses. There is a precedent in making judgments on associations in the monographs of the International Agency for Research on Cancer; however, only the carcinogenic effects of exposures are examined. The idea of a World Council of Epidemiology and Causality to undertake rigorous, independent, comprehensive examination of associations has been debated, including in a workshop at the International Epidemiology Association's 20 th World Congress of Epidemiology, 2014. The objective of the workshop was both to, briefly, debate the idea and set out further questions and next steps. The principal conclusion from feedback including from the workshop is that the World Council of Epidemiology and Causality idea, notwithstanding challenges, has promise and deserves more debate. The preferred model is for a small independent body working closely with relevant partners with a distributed approach to tasks. Recommendations are contextualized in contemporary approaches in causal thinking in epidemiology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Artificial Sweeteners: A systematic review of metabolic effects in youth

PubMed Central

Brown, Rebecca J.; De Banate, Mary Ann; Rother, Kristina I.

2010-01-01

Epidemiological data have demonstrated an association between artificial sweetener use and weight gain. Evidence of a causal relationship linking artificial sweetener use to weight gain and other metabolic health effects is limited. However, recent animal studies provide intriguing information that supports an active metabolic role of artificial sweeteners. This systematic review examines the current literature on artificial sweetener consumption in children and its health effects. Eighteen studies were identified. Data from large, epidemiologic studies support the existence of an association between artificially-sweetened beverage consumption and weight gain in children. Randomized controlled trials in children are very limited, and do not clearly demonstrate either beneficial or adverse metabolic effects of artificial sweeteners. Presently, there is no strong clinical evidence for causality regarding artificial sweetener use and metabolic health effects, but it is important to examine possible contributions of these common food additives to the global rise in pediatric obesity and diabetes. PMID:20078374
Artificial sweeteners: a systematic review of metabolic effects in youth.

PubMed

Brown, Rebecca J; de Banate, Mary Ann; Rother, Kristina I

2010-08-01

Epidemiological data have demonstrated an association between artificial sweetener use and weight gain. Evidence of a causal relationship linking artificial sweetener use to weight gain and other metabolic health effects is limited. However, recent animal studies provide intriguing information that supports an active metabolic role of artificial sweeteners. This systematic review examines the current literature on artificial sweetener consumption in children and its health effects. Eighteen studies were identified. Data from large, epidemiologic studies support the existence of an association between artificially-sweetened beverage consumption and weight gain in children. Randomized controlled trials in children are very limited, and do not clearly demonstrate either beneficial or adverse metabolic effects of artificial sweeteners. Presently, there is no strong clinical evidence for causality regarding artificial sweetener use and metabolic health effects, but it is important to examine possible contributions of these common food additives to the global rise in pediatric obesity and diabetes.
Evidence, illness, and causation: an epidemiological perspective on the Russo-Williamson Thesis.

PubMed

Fiorentino, Alexander R; Dammann, Olaf

2015-12-01

According to the Russo-Williamson Thesis, causal claims in the health sciences need to be supported by both difference-making and mechanistic evidence. In this article, we attempt to determine whether Evidence-based Medicine (EBM) can be improved through the consideration of mechanistic evidence. We discuss the practical composition and function of each RWT evidence type and propose that exposure-outcome evidence (previously known as difference-making evidence) provides associations that can be explained through a hypothesis of causation, while mechanistic evidence provides finer-grained associations and knowledge of entities that ultimately explains a causal hypothesis. We suggest that mechanistic evidence holds untapped potential to add value to the assessment of evidence quality in EBM and propose initial recommendations for the integration of mechanistic and exposure-outcome evidence to improve EBM by robustly leveraging available evidence in support of good medical decisions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Disgust and the politics of sex: exposure to a disgusting odorant increases politically conservative views on sex and decreases support for gay marriage.

PubMed

Adams, Thomas G; Stewart, Patrick A; Blanchar, John C

2014-01-01

Disgust has been implicated as a potential causal agent underlying socio-political attitudes and behaviors. Several recent studies have suggested that pathogen disgust may be a causal mechanism underlying social conservatism. However, the specificity of this effect is still in question. The present study tested the effects of disgust on a range of policy preferences to clarify whether disgust is generally implicated in political conservatism across public policy attitudes or is uniquely related to specific content domains. Self-reported socio-political attitudes were compared between participants in two experimental conditions: 1) an odorless control condition, and 2) a disgusting odor condition. In keeping with previous research, the present study showed that exposure to a disgusting odor increased endorsement of socially conservative attitudes related to sexuality. In particular, there was a strong and consistent link between induced disgust and less support for gay marriage.
Air Pollution, Oxidative Stress, and Alzheimer's Disease

PubMed Central

Moulton, Paula Valencia; Yang, Wei

2012-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia affecting millions of people worldwide and will continue to affect millions more with population aging on the rise. AD causality is multifactorial. Known causal factors include genetic predisposition, age, and sex. Environmental toxins such as air pollution (AP) have also been implicated in AD causation. Exposure to AP can lead to chronic oxidative stress (OS), which is involved in the pathogenesis of AD. Whereas AP plays a role in AD pathology, the epidemiological evidence for this association is limited. Given the significant prevalence of AP exposure combined with increased population aging, epidemiological evidence for this link is important to consider. In this paper, we examine the existing evidence supporting the relationship between AP, OS, and AD and provide recommendations for future research on the population level, which will provide evidence in support of public health interventions. PMID:22523504
Immunizations and autism: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Doja, Asif; Roberts, Wendy

2006-11-01

Because of a temporal correlation between the first notable signs and symptoms of autism and the routine childhood vaccination schedule, many parents have become increasingly concerned regarding the possible etiologic role vaccines may play in the development of autism. In particular, some have suggested an association between the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine and autism. Our literature review found very few studies supporting this theory, with the overwhelming majority showing no causal association between the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine and autism. The vaccine preservative thimerosal has alternatively been hypothesized to have a possible causal role in autism. Again, no convincing evidence was found to support this claim, nor for the use of chelation therapy in autism. With decreasing uptake of immunizations in children and the inevitable occurrence of measles outbreaks, it is important that clinicians be aware of the literature concerning vaccinations and autism so that they may have informed discussions with parents and caregivers.
Dynamic Analytics-Driven Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Exploitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-15

integration with big data technologies such as Hadoop , nor does it natively support exporting of events to external relational databases. OSSIM supports...power of big data analytics to determine correlations and temporal causality among vulnerabilities and cyber events. The vulnerability dependencies...via the SCAPE (formerly known as LLCySA [6]). This is illustrated as a big data cyber analytic system architecture in
The scope and limits of overimitation in the transmission of artefact culture

PubMed Central

Lyons, Derek E.; Damrosch, Diana H.; Lin, Jennifer K.; Macris, Deanna M.; Keil, Frank C.

2011-01-01

Children are generally masterful imitators, both rational and flexible in their reproduction of others' actions. After observing an adult operating an unfamiliar object, however, young children will frequently overimitate, reproducing not only the actions that were causally necessary but also those that were clearly superfluous. Why does overimitation occur? We argue that when children observe an adult intentionally acting on a novel object, they may automatically encode all of the adult's actions as causally meaningful. This process of automatic causal encoding (ACE) would generally guide children to accurate beliefs about even highly opaque objects. In situations where some of an adult's intentional actions were unnecessary, however, it would also lead to persistent overimitation. Here, we undertake a thorough examination of the ACE hypothesis, reviewing prior evidence and offering three new experiments to further test the theory. We show that children will persist in overimitating even when doing so is costly (underscoring the involuntary nature of the effect), but also that the effect is constrained by intentionality in a manner consistent with its posited learning function. Overimitation may illuminate not only the structure of children's causal understanding, but also the social learning processes that support our species' artefact-centric culture. PMID:21357238
Intolerance of uncertainty, causal uncertainty, causal importance, self-concept clarity and their relations to generalized anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Kusec, Andrea; Tallon, Kathleen; Koerner, Naomi

2016-06-01

Although numerous studies have provided support for the notion that intolerance of uncertainty plays a key role in pathological worry (the hallmark feature of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD)), other uncertainty-related constructs may also have relevance for the understanding of individuals who engage in pathological worry. Three constructs from the social cognition literature, causal uncertainty, causal importance, and self-concept clarity, were examined in the present study to assess the degree to which these explain unique variance in GAD, over and above intolerance of uncertainty. N = 235 participants completed self-report measures of trait worry, GAD symptoms, and uncertainty-relevant constructs. A subgroup was subsequently classified as low in GAD symptoms (n = 69) or high in GAD symptoms (n = 54) based on validated cut scores on measures of trait worry and GAD symptoms. In logistic regressions, only elevated intolerance of uncertainty and lower self-concept clarity emerged as unique correlates of high (vs. low) GAD symptoms. The possible role of self-concept uncertainty in GAD and the utility of integrating social cognition theories and constructs into clinical research on intolerance of uncertainty are discussed.
Self-belief does make a difference: a reciprocal effects model of the causal ordering of physical self-concept and gymnastics performance.

PubMed

Marsh, Herbert W; Chanal, Julien P; Sarrazin, Philippe G

2006-01-01

A large body of research in support of the reciprocal effects model of causal ordering demonstrates that prior academic self-concept predicts subsequent academic achievement beyond what can be explained in terms of prior achievement. Here we evaluate the generalizability of this support for the reciprocal effects model to a physical activity context in which achievement is reflected in gymnastics skills on a standardized gymnastics performance test evaluated by expert judges. Based on the responses of 376 adolescents collected at the start (T1) and end (T2) of a gymnastics training programme, there is support for a reciprocal effects model in which there are significant paths leading from both T1 gymnastics self-concept to T2 gymnastics skills and from T1 gymnastics skills to T2 self-concept. Although there were gender and age effects (girls and older participants had better gymnastics skills, boys had higher self-concepts), multiple group structural equation models indicated that support for the reciprocal effects model generalized over responses by boys and girls. In summary, self-concept and performance are both determinants and consequences of each other.
Causal Effects of Language on the Exchange of Social Support in an Online Community.

PubMed

Biehl, Sarah A; Kahn, Jeffrey H

2016-07-01

The provision of social support is a common function of many online communities, but a full understanding of the causal effect of emotion language on the provision of support requires experimental study. The frequency of positive- and negative-emotion words in simulated posts requesting emotional support was manipulated and presented to a sample of college students (N = 442) who were randomly assigned to read one of four simulated posts. Participants completed measures of the original poster's (OP's) distress, and they provided a response to the simulated post. These responses were subjected to a computerized text analysis, and their overall effectiveness was rated by two independent judges. Fewer positive-emotion and more negative-emotion words in the simulated post led to perceptions that the OP was distressed and unable to cope. Participant-generated responses to the post were highest in positive-emotion words when the simulated post was high in positive-emotion words, but low in negative-emotion words. Finally, simulated posts that were low in positive-emotion words received responses that were judged to be more effective than did simulated posts that were high in positive-emotion words. These findings have implications for understanding the role of emotion language on the exchange of online social support.
Gang membership and substance use: guilt as a gendered causal pathway

PubMed Central

Coffman, Donna L.; Melde, Chris; Esbensen, Finn-Aage

2014-01-01

Objectives We examine whether anticipated guilt for substance use is a gendered mechanism underlying the noted enhancement effect of gang membership on illegal drug use. We also demonstrate a method for making stronger causal inferences when assessing mediation in the presence of moderation and time-varying confounding. Methods We estimate a series of inverse propensity weighted models to obtain unbiased estimates of mediation in the presence of confounding of the exposure (i.e., gang membership) and mediator (i.e., anticipated guilt) using three waves of data from a multi-site panel study of a law-related education program for youth (N=1,113). Results The onset of gang membership significantly decreased anticipated substance use guilt among both male and female respondents. This reduction was significantly associated with increased frequency of substance use only for female respondents, however, suggesting that gender moderates the mechanism through which gang membership influences substance use. Conclusions Criminologists are often concerned with identifying causal pathways for antisocial and/or delinquent behavior, but confounders of the exposure, mediator, and outcome often interfere with efforts to assess mediation. Many new approaches have been proposed for strengthening causal inference for mediation effects. After controlling for confounding using inverse propensity weighting, our results suggest that interventions aimed at reducing substance use by current and former female gang members should focus on the normative aspects of these behaviors. PMID:26190954

Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology

PubMed Central

Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate; Davey Smith, George

2016-01-01

Abstract Triangulation is the practice of obtaining more reliable answers to research questions through integrating results from several different approaches, where each approach has different key sources of potential bias that are unrelated to each other. With respect to causal questions in aetiological epidemiology, if the results of different approaches all point to the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence in the finding. This is particularly the case when the key sources of bias of some of the approaches would predict that findings would point in opposite directions if they were due to such biases. Where there are inconsistencies, understanding the key sources of bias of each approach can help to identify what further research is required to address the causal question. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how triangulation might be used to improve causal inference in aetiological epidemiology. We propose a minimum set of criteria for use in triangulation in aetiological epidemiology, summarize the key sources of bias of several approaches and describe how these might be integrated within a triangulation framework. We emphasize the importance of being explicit about the expected direction of bias within each approach, whenever this is possible, and seeking to identify approaches that would be expected to bias the true causal effect in different directions. We also note the importance, when comparing results, of taking account of differences in the duration and timing of exposures. We provide three examples to illustrate these points. PMID:28108528
Income and obesity: what is the direction of the relationship? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Jun; von dem Knesebeck, Olaf

2018-01-01

Objective It was repeatedly shown that lower income is associated with higher risks for subsequent obesity. However, the perspective of a potential reverse causality is often neglected, in which obesity is considered a cause for lower income, when obese people drift into lower-income jobs due to labour–market discrimination and public stigmatisation. This review was performed to explore the direction of the relation between income and obesity by specifically assessing the importance of social causation and reverse causality. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted in January 2017. The databases Medline, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts, International Bibliography of Social Sciences and Sociological Index were screened to identify prospective cohort studies with quantitative data on the relation between income and obesity. Meta-analytic methods were applied using random-effect models, and the quality of studies assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Results In total, 21 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. All included studies originated from either the USA (n=16), the UK (n=3) or Canada (n=2). From these, 14 studies on causation and 7 studies on reverse causality were found. Meta-analyses revealed that lower income is associated with subsequent obesity (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.47; risk ratio 1.52, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.13), though the statistical significance vanished once adjusted for publication bias. Studies on reverse causality indicated a more consistent relation between obesity and subsequent income, even after taking publication bias into account (standardised mean difference −0.15, 95% CI −0.30 to 0.01). Sensitivity analyses implied that the association is influenced by obesity measurement, gender, length of observation and study quality. Conclusions Findings suggest that there is more consistent evidence for reverse causality. Therefore, there is a need to examine reverse causality processes in more detail to understand the relation between income and obesity. PROSPERO registration number 42016041296. PMID:29306894
SU-E-P-07: Retrospective Analysis of Incident Reports at a Radiology Department: Feedback From Incident Reporting System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kakinohana, Y; Toita, T; Heianna, J

Purpose: To provide an overview of reported incidents that occurred in a radiology department and to describe the most common causal source of incidents. Methods: Incident reports from the radiology department at the University of the Ryukyus Hospital between 2008 and 2013 were collected and analyzed retrospectively. The incident report form contains the following items, causal factors of the incident and desirable corrective actions to prevent recurrence of similar incidents. These items allow the institution to investigate/analyze root causes of the incidents and suggest measures to be taken to prevent further, similar incidents. The ‘causal factors of the incident’ itemmore » comprises multiple selections from among 24 selections and includes some synonymous selections. In this study, this item was re-categorized into four causal source types: (i) carelessness, (ii) lack of skill or knowledge, (iii) deficiencies in communication, and (iv) external factors. Results: There were a total of 7490 incident reports over the study period and 276 (3.7%) were identified as originating from the radiology department. The most frequent causal source type was carelessness (62%). The other three types showed similar frequencies (10–14%). The staff members involved in incidents indicate three predominant desirable corrective actions to prevent or decrease the recurrence of similar incidents. These are ‘improvement in communication’ (24%), ‘staff training/education’ (19%), and ‘daily medical procedures’ (22%), and the most frequent was ‘improvement in communication’. Even though the most frequent causal factor was related to carelessness, the most desirable corrective action indicated by the staff members was related to communication. Conclusion: Our finding suggests that the most immediate causes are strongly related to carelessness. However, the most likely underlying causes of incidents would be related to deficiencies in effective communication. At our department, therefore, the primary action to prevent/reduce similar incidents should be ‘communication improvement’.« less
Comparing humans and nonhuman great apes in the broken cloth problem: Is their knowledge causal or perceptual?

PubMed

Albiach-Serrano, Anna; Sebastián-Enesco, Carla; Seed, Amanda; Colmenares, Fernando; Call, Josep

2015-11-01

When presented with the broken cloth problem, both human children and nonhuman great apes prefer to pull a continuous cloth over a discontinuous cloth in order to obtain a desired object resting on top. This has been interpreted as evidence that they preferentially attend to the functionally relevant cues of the task (e.g., presence or absence of a gap along the cloth). However, there is controversy regarding whether great apes' behavior is underpinned by causal knowledge, involving abstract concepts (e.g., support, connection), or by perceptual knowledge, based on percepts (e.g., contact, continuity). We presented chimpanzees, orangutans, and 2-, 3-, and 4-year-old children with two versions of the broken cloth problem. The Real condition, made with paper strips, could be solved based on either perceptual cues or causal knowledge. The Painted condition, which looked very similar, could be solved only by attending to perceptual cues. All groups mastered the Real condition, in line with previous results. Older children (3- and 4-year-olds) performed significantly better in this condition than all other groups, but the performance of apes and children did not differ sharply, with 2-year-olds and apes obtaining similar results. In contrast, only 4-year-olds solved the Painted condition. We propose causal knowledge to explain the general good performance of apes and humans in the Real condition compared with the Painted condition. In addition, we suggest that symbolic knowledge might account for 4-year-olds' performance in the Painted condition. Our findings add to the growing literature supporting the idea that learning from arbitrary cues is not a good explanation for the performance of apes and humans on some kinds of physical task. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Outward foreign direct investments and home country's economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciesielska, Dorota; Kołtuniak, Marcin

2017-09-01

The study examines the time stability of the causality direction and cross-correlations between the home country's economic growth and pace of growth of its outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) stocks within the complex system of the Polish national economy. The research has been performed in order to verify, using both the time and frequency domains time series analyses, if economic agents' long term decisions on outward foreign direct investments, leading to cross-border value chains and production fragmentation processes, are of adaptive or predictive character. Consequently, the aim was to check if the home country's economic growth leads the internationalization processes of domestic enterprises, which stays in line with Dunning's Investment Development Path (IDP) paradigm, or if these complex processes, thanks to entrepreneurs' ability to formulate relevant rational expectations, precede the home country's economic growth, which would be supported with the introduction of the policy on reinforcing the internationalization processes of domestic enterprises. The presence of the unidirectional economic growth-led internationalization, consistent with the IDP concept's base assumptions, has been ascertained by the results of the short term Granger causality tests. Nevertheless, the results of the wavelet analyses, supported with the results of the econometric block exogeneity long term causality Wald tests, have revealed that in the long term the OFDI stocks' growth permanently precedes the home country's economic growth, which stays in the unequivocal contrast with the IDP paradigm's premises, as well as with the indicated above short term Granger causality tests' outcomes and indicates that economic agents' choices are not strictly of adaptive but also of predictive character, which influences the current state of knowledge on economic complex systems' characteristics. Such a result is of a great importance in the light of the existence of the significant and still unexploited internationalization potential of Polish enterprises.
Rational over-imitation: Preschoolers consider material costs and copy causally irrelevant actions selectively.

PubMed

Keupp, Stefanie; Bancken, Christin; Schillmöller, Jelka; Rakoczy, Hannes; Behne, Tanya

2016-02-01

Children's strong tendency to over-imitate - i.e., to reproduce causally irrelevant actions - presents a well-documented, yet puzzling, phenomenon. On first sight this instrumentally inefficient behavior seems maladaptive and different accounts have been put forward to explain it. Causal accounts claim that children are misled by an adult's demonstration, mistake the superfluous actions as causally necessary, and therefore imitate them. Other accounts emphasize cognitive-motivational aspects underlying over-imitation, e.g. social motivations to affiliate with the model, or to adhere to normative conventions. Since all accounts predict the occurrence of over-imitation under typical conditions, different parameters and circumstances have to be considered to distinguish between them. Thus, we investigated children's over-imitation and their spontaneous verbal reactions to a puppet's behavior, in contexts in which a causally irrelevant action either led to the destruction of a valuable object belonging to the experimenter, or not. In addition, children saw the full action sequence being demonstrated either with an instrumental or a conventional focus. Causal accounts predict no flexibility across these contexts, because over-imitation is said to occur automatically. Normative accounts claim that different normative considerations affect children's behavior and action parsing, and therefore predict different response patterns across conditions. We found that over-imitation was less frequent in costly and instrumental conditions. Children criticized the puppet for omitting irrelevant actions more often in the non-costly condition, but criticized her more often for performing irrelevant actions in the costly condition, often expressing their moral concern. The results support the rational normative action interpretation account of over-imitation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Exploring causality between TV viewing and weight change in young and middle-aged adults. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study.

PubMed

Helajärvi, Harri; Rosenström, Tom; Pahkala, Katja; Kähönen, Mika; Lehtimäki, Terho; Heinonen, Olli J; Oikonen, Mervi; Tammelin, Tuija; Viikari, Jorma S A; Raitakari, Olli T

2014-01-01

Television viewing time (TV time) is associated with increased weight and obesity, but it is unclear whether this relation is causal. We evaluated changes in TV time, waist circumference (waist) and body mass index (BMI) in participants of the population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study (761 women, 626 men aged 33-50 years in 2011). Waist and BMI were measured, and TV time was self-reported in 2001, 2007, and 2011. Changes in waist and BMI between 2001 and 2011 were studied a) for the whole group, b) in groups with constantly low (≤ 1 h/d), moderate (1-3 h/d), or high (≥ 3 h/d) TV time, and c) in groups with ≥ 1 hour in-/decrease in daily TV time between 2001 and 2011. BMIs in 1986 were also evaluated. We explored the causal relationship of TV time with waist and BMI by classical temporality criterion and recently introduced causal-discovery algorithms (pairwise causality measures). Both methods supported the hypothesis that TV time is causative to weight gain, and no evidence was found for reverse or bidirectional causality. Constantly low TV time was associated with less pronounced increase in waist and BMI, and waist and BMI increase was lower with decreased TV time (P<0.05). The increase in waist and BMI was at least 2-fold in the high TV time group compared to the low TV time group (P<0.05). Adjustment for age, sex, BMI/waist in 2001, physical activity, energy intake, or smoking did not change the results. In young and middle-aged adults, constantly high TV time is temporally antecedent to BMI and waist increase.
Balanced Identity in the Minimal Groups Paradigm

PubMed Central

Dunham, Yarrow

2013-01-01

Balanced Identity Theory [1] formalizes a set of relationships between group attitude, group identification, and self-esteem. While these relationships have been demonstrated for familiar and highly salient social categories, questions remain regarding the generality of the balance phenomenon and its causal versus descriptive status. Supporting the generality and rapidity of cognitive balance, four studies demonstrate that the central predictions of balance are supported even for previously unfamiliar “minimal” social groups to which participants have just been randomly assigned. Further, supporting a causal as opposed to merely descriptive interpretation, manipulating any one component of the balance model (group attitude, group identification, or self-esteem) affects at least one of the related components. Interestingly, the broader pattern of cognitive balance was preserved across such manipulations only when the manipulation strengthens as opposes to weakens the manipulated construct. Taken together, these findings indicate that Balanced Identity Theory has promise as a general theory of intergroup attitudes, and that it may be able to shed light on prior inconsistencies concerning the relationship between self-esteem and intergroup bias. PMID:24391912
Observational Needs for Four-Dimensional Air Quality Characterization

EPA Science Inventory

Surface-based monitoring programs provide the foundation for associating air pollution and causal effects in human health studies, and they support the development of air quality standards and the preparation of emission reduction strategies. While surface oriented networks remai...
Belief beyond the evidence: using the proposed effect of breakfast on obesity to show 2 practices that distort scientific evidence1234

PubMed Central

Brown, Andrew W; Bohan Brown, Michelle M

2013-01-01

Background: Various intentional and unintentional factors influence beliefs beyond what scientific evidence justifies. Two such factors are research lacking probative value (RLPV) and biased research reporting (BRR). Objective: We investigated the prevalence of RLPV and BRR in research about the proposition that skipping breakfast causes weight gain, which is called the proposed effect of breakfast on obesity (PEBO) in this article. Design: Studies related to the PEBO were synthesized by using a cumulative meta-analysis. Abstracts from these studies were also rated for the improper use of causal language and biased interpretations. In separate analyses, articles that cited an observational study about the PEBO were rated for the inappropriate use of causal language, and articles that cited a randomized controlled trial (RCT) about the PEBO were rated for misleadingly citing the RCT. Results: The current body of scientific knowledge indicates that the PEBO is only presumed true. The observational literature on the PEBO has gratuitously established the association, but not the causal relation, between skipping breakfast and obesity (final cumulative meta-analysis P value <10−42), which is evidence of RLPV. Four examples of BRR are evident in the PEBO literature as follows: 1) biased interpretation of one's own results, 2) improper use of causal language in describing one's own results, 3) misleadingly citing others’ results, and 4) improper use of causal language in citing others’ work. Conclusions: The belief in the PEBO exceeds the strength of scientific evidence. The scientific record is distorted by RLPV and BRR. RLPV is a suboptimal use of collective scientific resources. PMID:24004890
Noninvasive Electromagnetic Source Imaging and Granger Causality Analysis: An Electrophysiological Connectome (eConnectome) Approach

PubMed Central

Sohrabpour, Abbas; Ye, Shuai; Worrell, Gregory A.; Zhang, Wenbo

2016-01-01

Objective Combined source imaging techniques and directional connectivity analysis can provide useful information about the underlying brain networks in a non-invasive fashion. Source imaging techniques have been used successfully to either determine the source of activity or to extract source time-courses for Granger causality analysis, previously. In this work, we utilize source imaging algorithms to both find the network nodes (regions of interest) and then extract the activation time series for further Granger causality analysis. The aim of this work is to find network nodes objectively from noninvasive electromagnetic signals, extract activation time-courses and apply Granger analysis on the extracted series to study brain networks under realistic conditions. Methods Source imaging methods are used to identify network nodes and extract time-courses and then Granger causality analysis is applied to delineate the directional functional connectivity of underlying brain networks. Computer simulations studies where the underlying network (nodes and connectivity pattern) is known were performed; additionally, this approach has been evaluated in partial epilepsy patients to study epilepsy networks from inter-ictal and ictal signals recorded by EEG and/or MEG. Results Localization errors of network nodes are less than 5 mm and normalized connectivity errors of ~20% in estimating underlying brain networks in simulation studies. Additionally, two focal epilepsy patients were studied and the identified nodes driving the epileptic network were concordant with clinical findings from intracranial recordings or surgical resection. Conclusion Our study indicates that combined source imaging algorithms with Granger causality analysis can identify underlying networks precisely (both in terms of network nodes location and internodal connectivity). Significance The combined source imaging and Granger analysis technique is an effective tool for studying normal or pathological brain conditions. PMID:27740473
Protecting the world from secondhand tobacco smoke exposure: where do we stand and where do we go from here?

PubMed

Barnoya, Joaquin; Navas-Acien, Ana

2013-04-01

Article 8 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control mandates all signatory countries to "protect citizens from exposure to tobacco smoke in workplaces, public transport and indoor public places." Even though there has been great progress in the implementation of Article 8, still most of the world population remains exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS). In this article, we sought to summarize the research that supports Article 8, where do we stand, and current research gaps and future directions. Secondhand smoke is an established cause of heart disease and several types of cancer. Additional research is needed to reach final conclusions for diseases where evidence is only suggestive of causality. The only solution to SHS exposure in public places is banning smoking indoors. Research on the gaming industry and nightclubs, particularly in developing countries, needs to be disseminated to support their inclusion in smoke-free laws. Aside from indoor bans, additional research is needed for outdoor and multiunit housing bans and in support of measures that protect children and other vulnerable populations. The impact of smoke-free laws on other health outcomes, besides heart disease and respiratory outcomes, is another area where further research is needed. Thirdhand smoke assessment and health effects are also likely to be a topic of further research. As new tobacco products emerge, evaluating SHS exposure and effects will be vital. Furthering research in support of Article 8 can contribute to reach the final goal of protecting everyone from SHS exposure.
Feasibility and Behavioral Effects of an At-Home Multi-Night Sleep Restriction Protocol for Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beebe, Dean W.; Fallone, Gahan; Godiwala, Neha; Flanigan, Matt; Martin, David; Schaffner, Laura; Amin, Raouf

2008-01-01

Background: Sleep deprivation is common among adolescents and has been associated with adverse behavioral and educational outcomes. However, it is difficult to draw strong causal conclusions because of a dearth of experimental sleep research. In part, this appears related to methodological challenges when working with this population. This study…
Psychological Autopsy Studies as Diagnostic Tools: Are They Methodologically Flawed?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hjelmeland, Heidi; Dieserud, Gudrun; Dyregrov, Kari; Knizek, Birthe L.; Leenaars, Antoon A.

2012-01-01

One of the most established "truths" in suicidology is that almost all (90% or more) of those who kill themselves suffer from one or more mental disorders, and a causal link between the two is implied. Psychological autopsy (PA) studies constitute one main evidence base for this conclusion. However, there has been little reflection on the…
Political Attitudes Develop Independently of Personality Traits

PubMed Central

Hatemi, Peter K.; Verhulst, Brad

2015-01-01

The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area. PMID:25734580
Political attitudes develop independently of personality traits.

PubMed

Hatemi, Peter K; Verhulst, Brad

2015-01-01

The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area.
Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms and Low Educational Achievement: Evidence Supporting A Causal Hypothesis.

PubMed

de Zeeuw, Eveline L; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E M; Ehli, Erik A; de Geus, Eco J C; Boomsma, Dorret I

2017-05-01

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and educational achievement are negatively associated in children. Here we test the hypothesis that there is a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement. The causal effect is tested in a genetically sensitive design to exclude the possibility of confounding by a third factor (e.g. genetic pleiotropy) and by comparing educational achievement and secondary school career in children with ADHD who take or do not take methylphenidate. Data on ADHD symptoms, educational achievement and methylphenidate usage were available in a primary school sample of ~10,000 12-year-old twins from the Netherlands Twin Register. A substantial group also had longitudinal data at ages 7-12 years. ADHD symptoms were cross-sectionally and longitudinally, associated with lower educational achievement at age 12. More ADHD symptoms predicted a lower-level future secondary school career at age 14-16. In both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, testing the direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement, while controlling for genetic and environmental factors, revealed an association between ADHD symptoms and educational achievement independent of genetic and environmental pleiotropy. These findings were confirmed in MZ twin intra-pair differences models, twins with more ADHD symptoms scored lower on educational achievement than their co-twins. Furthermore, children with ADHD medication, scored significantly higher on the educational achievement test than children with ADHD who did not use medication. Taken together, the results are consistent with a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement.
Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model

PubMed Central

Caprariello, Peter A.; Cuddy, Amy J. C.; Fiske, Susan T.

2013-01-01

The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that social structure predicts specific cultural stereotypes and associated emotional prejudices. No prior evidence at a societal level has manipulated both structural predictors and measured both stereotypes and prejudices. In the present study, participants (n = 120) responded to an immigration scenario depicting a high- or low-status group, competitive or not competitive, and rated their likely stereotype (on warmth and competence) and elicited emotional prejudices (admiration, contempt, envy, and pity). Seven of eight specific predictions are fully confirmed, supporting the SCM's predicted causality for social structural effects on cultural stereotypes and emotional prejudices. PMID:24285928
Predictive monitoring research: Summary of the PREMON system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, Richard J.; Sellers, Suzanne M.; Atkinson, David J.

1987-01-01

Traditional approaches to monitoring are proving inadequate in the face of two important issues: the dynamic adjustment of expectations about sensor values when the behavior of the device is too complex to enumerate beforehand, and the selective but effective interpretation of sensor readings when the number of sensors becomes overwhelming. This system addresses these issues by building an explicit model of a device and applying common-sense theories of physics to model causality in the device. The resulting causal simulation of the device supports planning decisions about how to efficiently yet reliably utilize a limited number of sensors to verify correct operation of the device.
Accident/Mishap Investigation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Richard; Wolfe, Shawn; Gawdiak, Yuri; Carvalho, Robert; Panontin, Tina; Williams, James; Sturken, Ian

2007-01-01

InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

A Systematic Review on the Impact of Point-of-Sale Tobacco Promotion on Smoking

PubMed Central

McGee, Rob; Marsh, Louise; Hoek, Janet

2015-01-01

Introduction: The tobacco retail environment is a crucial marketing medium for the industry. A 2009 review found evidence of a positive association between exposure to point-of-sale (POS) tobacco promotion and increased smoking and smoking susceptibility, though limitations in the evidence base were identified. Aim and Methods: We reviewed and critically appraised recent evidence documenting the influence of POS tobacco promotion, and POS tobacco display bans, on smoking-related behavior and cognitions. We reviewed original quantitative and qualitative research that examined the relationship between POS tobacco promotion and smoking prevalence, individual-level smoking and quitting and tobacco purchasing behavior, smoking susceptibility, and smoking-related cognitions. Results: Twenty peer-reviewed studies (18 quantitative and 2 qualitative) met the inclusion criteria; each study reported findings consistent with a positive association between exposure to POS tobacco promotion and smoking or smoking susceptibility. Several studies met key criteria for causality: 4 indicated a dose–response association, 2 prospective studies were identified, and evidence from intervention studies supported the reversibility of the association. Findings were consistent across different study designs, settings, and measures. Conclusions: The existing evidence supports a positive association between exposure to POS tobacco promotion and smoking. This review provides evidence to support the continuation of POS tobacco display bans in those jurisdictions where such legislation has been introduced and strengthens the evidence encouraging similar policies in jurisdictions without a POS display ban. PMID:25173775
A novel approach to early sickness absence management: The EASY (Early Access to Support for You) way

PubMed Central

Demou, Evangelia; Brown, Judith; Sanati, Kaveh; Kennedy, Mark; Murray, Keith; Macdonald, Ewan B.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Sickness absence (SA) is multi-causal and remains a significant problem for employees, employers and society. This makes it necessary to concurrently manage a particular disabling condition and consider the working environment and employee-employer relationship. OBJECTIVE: To describe and examine the components of a novel SA management service Early Access to Support for You (EASY) and discuss their potential influence on the intervention. METHODS: A new sickness absence model, starting from day one of absence, was created called EASY. EASY is planned to support both employees and managers and comprises elements already found to be associated with reduction of SA, such as maintaining regular contact; early biopsychosocial case-management; physiotherapy; mental-health counselling; work modification; phased return-to-work; and health promotion activities. RESULTS: During the EASY implementation period, the SA rate at a health board reversed its trend of being one of the highest rates in the Scottish National Health Service (NHS) and EASY was considered helpful by both managers and employees. CONCLUSIONS: This paper describes an innovative occupational health intervention to sickness absence management based on the bio-psychosocial model to provide early intervention, and discusses the pros and cons of applying cognitive behavioural principles at an early stage in sickness-absence events, in order to improve return-to-work outcomes. PMID:26409380
Psychosocial work characteristics and sleep quality: a systematic review of longitudinal and intervention research.

PubMed

Van Laethem, Michelle; Beckers, Debby G J; Kompier, Michiel A J; Dijksterhuis, Ap; Geurts, Sabine A E

2013-11-01

The objective of this study was to review longitudinal and intervention studies examining the association between psychosocial work characteristics (eg, job demands, job control, and social support) and sleep quality. Our main research aims were to examine whether (i) psychosocial work characteristics are a predictor of sleep quality, and (ii) sleep quality, in turn, is a predictor of psychosocial work characteristics. A systematic literature search resulted in 20 relevant papers, of which 16 were longitudinal studies and 3 were intervention studies (1 study was discussed in separate papers). To quantify results, we assessed the strength of evidence of all examined associations and subsequently evaluated the studies' research quality based on predefined quality criteria. One intervention and three longitudinal studies studies were categorized as being of high-quality. In longitudinal studies, we found consistent and strong evidence for a negative relation between job demands and sleep quality as well as evidence for a positive relation between job control and sleep quality. Other psychosocial work characteristics were examined in an insufficient number of (high-quality) studies. Moreover, both intervention studies as well as studies investigating reversed and reciprocal relations are rare, which further limits the possibility of drawing conclusions on causality. Based on the current literature, it can be concluded that high job demands and low job control are predictors of poor sleep quality. More high-quality research is needed to examine the possible causal relationship between these and other psychosocial work characteristics with sleep quality, in addition to research focusing on reversed and reciprocal relations.
Do Child Abuse and Maltreatment Increase Risk of Schizophrenia?

PubMed Central

Sideli, Lucia; Mule, Alice; La Barbera, Daniele

2012-01-01

Introduction IntroductionaaAlthough childhood abuse is a recognised risk factor for depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, and substance misuse, its role in the aetiology of psychotic disorder remained controversial. This is in part because the putative effect of childhood trauma on psychosis has been mostly evaluated by small, cross sectional, uncontrolled studies that raised methodological issues. Methods Papers concerning the association between childhood trauma and psychotic disorders (to November, 2011) were identified using a comprehensive search of PubMed, Psychinfo, and Scopus and analysing reference list of relevant papers. A narrative synthesis was used to summarise results. Results An association between childhood abuse and psychotic symptoms was consistently reported by large cross sectional surveys with an effect ranging from 1.7 to 15. However, we cannot conclude that the relationship is causal as lack of longitudinal studies prevent us from fully excluding alternative explanations such as reverse causality. Gender, cannabis use, and depressive and post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms appear to moderate the effect of childhood trauma on psychotic disorders. However, specificity of childhood abuse in psychotic disorders and, particularly, in schizophrenia has not been demonstrated. Conclusion Although the association between childhood abuse and psychosis has been replicated, the etiological role of such early adversity has yet to be fully clarified. So far none of the studies reported support the hypothesis that childhood abuse is either sufficient or necessary to develop a psychotic disorder. It seems likely that any effect of childhood abuse on schizophrenia needs to be understood in terms of genetic susceptibility and interaction with other environmental risk factors. PMID:22707958
HIA, the next step: Defining models and roles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Putters, Kim

If HIA is to be an effective instrument for optimising health interests in the policy making process it has to recognise the different contests in which policy is made and the relevance of both technical rationality and political rationality. Policy making may adopt a rational perspective in which there is a systematic and orderly progression from problem formulation to solution or a network perspective in which there are multiple interdependencies, extensive negotiation and compromise, and the steps from problem to formulation are not followed sequentially or in any particular order. Policy problems may be simple with clear causal pathways andmore » responsibilities or complex with unclear causal pathways and disputed responsibilities. Network analysis is required to show which stakeholders are involved, their support for health issues and the degree of consensus. From this analysis three models of HIA emerge. The first is the phases model which is fitted to simple problems and a rational perspective of policymaking. This model involves following structured steps. The second model is the rounds (Echternach) model that is fitted to complex problems and a network perspective of policymaking. This model is dynamic and concentrates on network solutions taking these steps in no particular order. The final model is the 'garbage can' model fitted to contexts which combine simple and complex problems. In this model HIA functions as a problem solver and signpost keeping all possible solutions and stakeholders in play and allowing solutions to emerge over time. HIA models should be the beginning rather than the conclusion of discussion the worlds of HIA and policymaking.« less
A system dynamics evaluation model: implementation of health information exchange for public health reporting

PubMed Central

Merrill, Jacqueline A; Deegan, Michael; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Fredericks, Kimberly

2013-01-01

Objective To evaluate the complex dynamics involved in implementing electronic health information exchange (HIE) for public health reporting at a state health department, and to identify policy implications to inform similar implementations. Materials and methods Qualitative data were collected over 8 months from seven experts at New York State Department of Health who implemented web services and protocols for querying, receipt, and validation of electronic data supplied by regional health information organizations. Extensive project documentation was also collected. During group meetings experts described the implementation process and created reference modes and causal diagrams that the evaluation team used to build a preliminary model. System dynamics modeling techniques were applied iteratively to build causal loop diagrams representing the implementation. The diagrams were validated iteratively by individual experts followed by group review online, and through confirmatory review of documents and artifacts. Results Three casual loop diagrams captured well-recognized system dynamics: Sliding Goals, Project Rework, and Maturity of Resources. The findings were associated with specific policies that address funding, leadership, ensuring expertise, planning for rework, communication, and timeline management. Discussion This evaluation illustrates the value of a qualitative approach to system dynamics modeling. As a tool for strategic thinking on complicated and intense processes, qualitative models can be produced with fewer resources than a full simulation, yet still provide insights that are timely and relevant. Conclusions System dynamics techniques clarified endogenous and exogenous factors at play in a highly complex technology implementation, which may inform other states engaged in implementing HIE supported by federal Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) legislation. PMID:23292910
Using permutation tests to enhance causal inference in interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel

2018-06-01

Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) is an evaluation methodology in which a single treatment unit's outcome is studied serially over time and the intervention is expected to "interrupt" the level and/or trend of that outcome. The internal validity is strengthened considerably when the treated unit is contrasted with a comparable control group. In this paper, we introduce a robustness check based on permutation tests to further improve causal inference. We evaluate the effect of California's Proposition 99 for reducing cigarette sales by iteratively casting each nontreated state into the role of "treated," creating a comparable control group using the ITSAMATCH package in Stata, and then evaluating treatment effects using ITSA regression. If statistically significant "treatment effects" are estimated for pseudotreated states, then any significant changes in the outcome of the actual treatment unit (California) cannot be attributed to the intervention. We perform these analyses setting the cutpoint significance level to P > .40 for identifying balanced matches (the highest threshold possible for which controls could still be found for California) and use the difference in differences of trends as the treatment effect estimator. Only California attained a statistically significant treatment effect, strengthening confidence in the conclusion that Proposition 99 reduced cigarette sales. The proposed permutation testing framework provides an additional robustness check to either support or refute a treatment effect identified in for the true treated unit in ITSA. Given its value and ease of implementation, this framework should be considered as a standard robustness test in all multiple group interrupted time series analyses. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Cannabis use and mania symptoms: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gibbs, Melanie; Winsper, Catherine; Marwaha, Steven; Gilbert, Eleanor; Broome, Matthew; Singh, Swaran P

2015-01-15

Whilst cannabis use appears to be a causal risk factor for the development of schizophrenia-related psychosis, associations with mania remain relatively unknown. This review aimed to examine the impact of cannabis use on the incidence of manic symptoms and on their occurrence in those with pre-existing bipolar disorder. A systematic review of the scientific literature using the PRISMA guidelines. PsychINFO, Cochrane, Scopus, Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched for prospective studies. Six articles met inclusion criteria. These sampled 2391 individuals who had experienced mania symptoms. The mean length of follow up was 3.9 years. Studies support an association between cannabis use and the exacerbation of manic symptoms in those with previously diagnosed bipolar disorder. Furthermore, a meta-analysis of two studies suggests that cannabis use is associated with an approximately 3-fold (Odds Ratio: 2.97; 95% CI: 1.80-4.90) increased risk for the new onset of manic symptoms. We were only able to identify a small number of studies of variable quality, thus our conclusions remain preliminary. Our findings whilst tentative, suggest that cannabis use may worsen the occurrence of manic symptoms in those diagnosed with bipolar disorder, and may also act as a causal risk factor in the incidence of manic symptoms. This underscores the importance of discouraging cannabis use among youth and those with bipolar disorder to help prevent chronic psychiatric morbidity. More high quality prospective studies are required to fully elucidate how cannabis use may contribute to the development of mania over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A critical review of the relationship between occupational exposure to diesel emissions and lung cancer risk.

PubMed

Möhner, Matthias; Wendt, Andrea

2017-03-01

In 2012, a working group of the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified diesel exhaust (DE) as a human carcinogen (Group 1). This decision was primarily based on the findings of the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS). The disparity between the results of various methodological approaches applied to the DEMS led to several critical commentaries. An expert panel was subsequently set up by the Health Effects Institute to evaluate the DEMS results, together with a large study in the trucking industry. The panel concluded that both studies provided a useful basis for quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of DE exposure. However, the results of both studies were non-definitive as the studies suffer from several methodological shortcomings. We conducted a critical review of the studies used by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group to evaluate the relationship between DE and lung cancer. The aim was to assess whether the available studies support the statement of a causal relationship and, secondarily if they could be used for QRA. Our review highlights several methodological flaws in the studies, amongst them overadjustment bias, selection bias, and confounding bias. The conclusion from our review is that the currently published studies provide little evidence for a definite causal link between DE exposure and lung cancer risk. Based on two studies in miners, the DEMS and the German Potash Miners study, QRA may be conducted. However, the DEMS data should be reanalyzed in advance to avoid bias that affects the presently published risk estimates.
Mendelian randomisation analysis strongly implicates adiposity with risk of developing colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Jarvis, David; Mitchell, Jonathan S; Law, Philip J; Palin, Kimmo; Tuupanen, Sari; Gylfe, Alexandra; Hänninen, Ulrika A; Cajuso, Tatiana; Tanskanen, Tomas; Kondelin, Johanna; Kaasinen, Eevi; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Kaprio, Jaakko; Eriksson, Johan G; Rissanen, Harri; Knekt, Paul; Pukkala, Eero; Jousilahti, Pekka; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Palotie, Aarno; Järvinen, Heikki; Renkonen-Sinisalo, Laura; Lepistö, Anna; Böhm, Jan; Meklin, Jukka-Pekka; Al-Tassan, Nada A; Palles, Claire; Martin, Lynn; Barclay, Ella; Farrington, Susan M; Timofeeva, Maria N; Meyer, Brian F; Wakil, Salma M; Campbell, Harry; Smith, Christopher G; Idziaszczyk, Shelley; Maughan, Timothy S; Kaplan, Richard; Kerr, Rachel; Kerr, David; Buchanan, Daniel D; Win, Aung K; Hopper, John L; Jenkins, Mark A; Lindor, Noralane M; Newcomb, Polly A; Gallinger, Steve; Conti, David; Schumacher, Fred; Casey, Graham; Taipale, Jussi; Aaltonen, Lauri A; Cheadle, Jeremy P; Dunlop, Malcolm G; Tomlinson, Ian P; Houlston, Richard S

2016-01-01

Background: Observational studies have associated adiposity with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, such studies do not establish a causal relationship. To minimise bias from confounding we performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to examine the relationship between adiposity and CRC. Methods: We used SNPs associated with adult body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), childhood obesity and birth weight as instrumental variables in a MR analysis of 9254 CRC cases and 18 386 controls. Results: In the MR analysis, the odds ratios (ORs) of CRC risk per unit increase in BMI, WHR and childhood obesity were 1.23 (95% CI: 1.02–1.49, P=0.033), 1.59 (95% CI: 1.08–2.34, P=0.019) and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03–1.13, P=0.018), respectively. There was no evidence for association between birth weight and CRC (OR=1.22, 95% CI: 0.89–1.67, P=0.22). Combining these data with a concurrent MR-based analysis for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (totalling to 18 190 cases, 27 617 controls) provided increased support, ORs for BMI and WHR were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.10–1.44, P=7.7 × 10−4) and 1.40 (95% CI: 1.14–1.72, P=1.2 × 10−3), respectively. Conclusions: These data provide further evidence for a strong causal relationship between adiposity and the risk of developing CRC highlighting the urgent need for prevention and treatment of adiposity. PMID:27336604
Controlled Exposure of Healthy Young Volunteers to Ozone Causes Cardiovascular Effects

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Recent epidemiology studies have reported associations between acute ozone exposure and mortality. Such studies have previously reported associations between airborne particulate matter pollution (PM) and mortality and support for a causal relationship has come from c...
Controlled exposure of healthy young volunteers to ozone causes cardiovascular effects**

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Recent epidemiology studies have reported associations between acute ozone exposure and mortality. Such studies have previously reported associations between airborne particulate matter pollution (PM) and mortality and support for a causal relationship has come from c...
SALMON RECOVERY: CATEGORIZING AGENTS, DRIVERS, AND DELUSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Throughout the southern region of western North America, many wild salmon stocks have declined and some have disappeared. The decline was induced by an extensively studied combination of causal agents. The public appears to support reversing the downward trajectory for wild sal...
A Comparative Study of Thought Fusion Beliefs and Thought Control Strategies in Patient With Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder, Major Depressive Disorder and Normal People

PubMed Central

Amiri Pichakolaei, Ahmad; Fahimi, Samad; Bakhshipour Roudsari, Abbas; Fakhari, Ali; Akbari, Ebrahim; Rahimkhanli, Masoumeh

2014-01-01

Objective: The present study aimed to investigate the metacognitive model of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), through a comparative study of thought fusion beliefs and thought control strategies between patients with OCD, depression, and normal people. Methods: This is a causal-comparative study. About 20 patients were selected with OCD, and 20 patients with major depression disorder (MDD), and 20 normal individuals. Participants completed a thought fusion instrument and thought control questionnaire. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis of variance. Results: Results indicated that patients with OCD obtained higher scores than two other groups. Also, there was a statistical significant difference between the three groups in thought control strategies and punishment, worry, and distraction subscales. Conclusion: Therefore, the results of the present study supported the metacognitive model of obsessive and showed thought fusion beliefs and thought control strategies can be effective in onset and continuity of OCD. PMID:25780373
An epidemiological examination of the subluxation construct using Hill's criteria of causation

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Chiropractors claim to locate, analyze and diagnose a putative spinal lesion known as subluxation and apply the mode of spinal manipulation (adjustment) for the correction of this lesion. Aim The purpose of this examination is to review the current evidence on the epidemiology of the subluxation construct and to evaluate the subluxation by applying epidemiologic criteria for it's significance as a causal factor. Methods The databases of PubMed, Cinahl, and Mantis were searched for studies using the keywords subluxation, epidemiology, manipulation, dose-response, temporality, odds ratio, relative risk, biological plausibility, coherence, and analogy. Results The criteria for causation in epidemiology are strength (strength of association), consistency, specificity, temporality (temporal sequence), dose response, experimental evidence, biological plausibility, coherence, and analogy. Applied to the subluxation all of these criteria remain for the most part unfulfilled. Conclusion There is a significant lack of evidence to fulfill the basic criteria of causation. This lack of crucial supportive epidemiologic evidence prohibits the accurate promulgation of the chiropractic subluxation. PMID:19954544
A case study examination of structure and function in a state health department chronic disease unit.

PubMed

Alongi, Jeanne

2015-04-01

I explored the structural and operational practices of the chronic disease prevention and control unit of a state health department and proposed a conceptual model of structure, function, and effectiveness for future study. My exploratory case study examined 7 elements of organizational structure and practice. My interviews with staff and external stakeholders of a single chronic disease unit yielded quantitative and qualitative data that I coded by perspective, process, relationship, and activity. I analyzed these for patterns and emerging themes. Chi-square analysis revealed significant correlations among collaboration with goal ambiguity, political support, and responsiveness, and evidence-based decisions with goal ambiguity and responsiveness. Although my study design did not permit conclusions about causality, my findings suggested that some elements of the model might facilitate effectiveness for chronic disease units and should be studied further. My findings might have important implications for identifying levers around which capacity can be built that may strengthen effectiveness.
The prediction of postpartum depression: The role of the PRECEDE model and health locus of control

PubMed Central

Moshki, Mahdi; Kharazmi, Akram; Cheravi, Khadijeh; Beydokhti, Tahereh Baloochi

2015-01-01

Background: The main purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of the PRECEDE model and health locus of control (HLC) on postpartum depression. This study used the path analysis to test the pattern of causal relations through the correlation coefficients. Materials and Method: The participants included 230 pregnant women in the north-east of Iran who were selected by convenience sampling. To analyze data, Pearson correlation and path analysis were applied to examine the relationships between variables using SPSS 20 and LISREL 8.50software. Results: The result of path analysis showed that a positive correlation exists between predisposing (knowledge, internal HLC, powerful others HLC, chance HLC) enabling and reinforcing factors with postpartum depression by GHQ score (GFI = 1, RSMEA = 000). Conclusion: The current study supported the application of the PRECEDE model and HLC in understanding the promoting behaviors in mental health and demonstrated their relationships with postpartum depression. PMID:26288792
Mutations in the TGF-β Repressor SKI Cause Shprintzen-Goldberg Syndrome with Aortic Aneurysm

PubMed Central

Doyle, Alexander J.; Doyle, Jefferson J.; Bessling, Seneca L.; Maragh, Samantha; Lindsay, Mark E.; Schepers, Dorien; Gillis, Elisabeth; Mortier, Geert; Homfray, Tessa; Sauls, Kimberly; Norris, Russell A.; Huso, Nicholas D.; Leahy, Dan; Mohr, David W.; Caulfield, Mark J.; Scott, Alan F.; Destrée, Anne; Hennekam, Raoul C.; Arn, Pamela H.; Curry, Cynthia J.; Van Laer, Lut; McCallion, Andrew S.; Loeys, Bart L.; Dietz, Harry C.

2012-01-01

Increased transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β) signaling has been implicated in the pathogenesis of syndromic presentations of aortic aneurysm, including Marfan syndrome (MFS) and Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS)1-4. However, the location and character of many of the causal mutations in LDS would intuitively infer diminished TGF-β signaling5. Taken together, these data have engendered controversy regarding the specific role of TGF-β in disease pathogenesis. Shprintzen-Goldberg syndrome (SGS) has considerable phenotypic overlap with MFS and LDS, including aortic aneurysm6-8. We identified causative variation in 10 patients with SGS in the proto-oncogene SKI, a known repressor of TGF-β activity9,10. Cultured patient dermal fibroblasts showed enhanced activation of TGF-β signaling cascades and increased expression of TGF-β responsive genes. Morpholino-induced silencing of SKI paralogs in zebrafish recapitulated abnormalities seen in SGS patients. These data support the conclusion that increased TGF-β signaling is the mechanism underlying SGS and contributes to multiple syndromic presentations of aortic aneurysm. PMID:23023332
The political economy of infant mortality in São Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Wood, C H

1982-01-01

After the military took power in Brazil in 1964, the government adopted a wide range of policies designed to stimulate economic growth. A central aspect of the Brazilian model of development was the control of wages. From 1964 to 1975 this strategy caused the purchasing power of the minimum wage in the city of Säo Paulo to fall. The decline in the real wage index was associated with a rise in infant mortality during the period. When real wages rose after 1974, the death rate dropped off. The infant mortality trend cannot be explained by other factors that affect the actual or the reported death rate, such as changes in cityward migration, shifts in the distribution of income, and improvements in the quality of vital statistics. The findings of this study indicate a causal relationship between the infant mortality trend and changes in the purchasing power of the urban poor. Additional data on nutrition, changes in household behavior, and shifts in the cause structure of mortality support this conclusion.
Absence of Measles Virus Detection from Stapes of Patients with Otosclerosis.

PubMed

Flores-García, María de Lourdes; Colín-Castro, Claudia Adriana; Hernández-Palestina, Mario Sabas; Sánchez-Larios, Roberto; Franco-Cendejas, Rafael

2018-01-01

Objective To determine molecularly the presence of measles virus genetic material in the stapes of patients with otosclerosis. Study Design A cross-sectional study. Setting A tertiary referral hospital. Subjects and Methods Genetic material was extracted from the stapes of patients with otosclerosis (n = 93) during the period from March 2011 to April 2012. The presence of viral measles sequences was evaluated by the real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The expression of the CD46 gene was determined. Results Ninety-three patients were included in the study. No sample was positive for any of 3 measles virus genes (H, N, and F). Measles virus RNA was not detected in any sample by real-time RT-PCR. CD46 levels were positive in 3.3% (n = 3) and negative in 96.7% (n = 90). Conclusion This study does not support the theory of measles virus as the cause of otosclerosis. It is necessary to do more research about other causal theories to clarify its etiology and prevention.

Evidence for a causal relationship between early exocrine pancreatic disease and cystic fibrosis-related diabetes: a Mendelian randomization study.

PubMed

Soave, David; Miller, Melissa R; Keenan, Katherine; Li, Weili; Gong, Jiafen; Ip, Wan; Accurso, Frank; Sun, Lei; Rommens, Johanna M; Sontag, Marci; Durie, Peter R; Strug, Lisa J

2014-06-01

Circulating immunoreactive trypsinogen (IRT), a biomarker of exocrine pancreatic disease in cystic fibrosis (CF), is elevated in most CF newborns. In those with severe CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) genotypes, IRT declines rapidly in the first years of life, reflecting progressive pancreatic damage. Consistent with this progression, a less elevated newborn IRT measure would reflect more severe pancreatic disease, including compromised islet compartments, and potentially increased risk of CF-related diabetes (CFRD). We show in two independent CF populations that a lower newborn IRT estimate is associated with higher CFRD risk among individuals with severe CFTR genotypes, and we provide evidence to support a causal relationship. Increased loge(IRT) at birth was associated with decreased CFRD risk in Canadian and Colorado samples (hazard ratio 0.30 [95% CI 0.15-0.61] and 0.39 [0.18-0.81], respectively). Using Mendelian randomization with the SLC26A9 rs7512462 genotype as an instrumental variable since it is known to be associated with IRT birth levels in the CF population, we provide evidence to support a causal contribution of exocrine pancreatic status on CFRD risk. Our findings suggest CFRD risk could be predicted in early life and that maintained ductal fluid flow in the exocrine pancreas could delay the onset of CFRD. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association.
Introductory Statistics Students' Conceptual Understanding of Study Design and Conclusions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, Elizabeth Brondos

Recommended learning goals for students in introductory statistics courses include the ability to recognize and explain the key role of randomness in designing studies and in drawing conclusions from those studies involving generalizations to a population or causal claims (GAISE College Report ASA Revision Committee, 2016). The purpose of this study was to explore introductory statistics students' understanding of the distinct roles that random sampling and random assignment play in study design and the conclusions that can be made from each. A study design unit lasting two and a half weeks was designed and implemented in four sections of an undergraduate introductory statistics course based on modeling and simulation. The research question that this study attempted to answer is: How does introductory statistics students' conceptual understanding of study design and conclusions (in particular, unbiased estimation and establishing causation) change after participating in a learning intervention designed to promote conceptual change in these areas? In order to answer this research question, a forced-choice assessment called the Inferences from Design Assessment (IDEA) was developed as a pretest and posttest, along with two open-ended assignments, a group quiz and a lab assignment. Quantitative analysis of IDEA results and qualitative analysis of the group quiz and lab assignment revealed that overall, students' mastery of study design concepts significantly increased after the unit, and the great majority of students successfully made the appropriate connections between random sampling and generalization, and between random assignment and causal claims. However, a small, but noticeable portion of students continued to demonstrate misunderstandings, such as confusion between random sampling and random assignment.
Engagement as a Driver of Growth of Online Health Forums: Observational Study

PubMed Central

Gopalsamy, Rahul; Semenov, Alexander; Pasiliao, Eduardo; McIntosh, Scott

2017-01-01

Background The emerging research on nurturing the growth of online communities posits that it is in part attributed to network effects, wherein every increase in the volume of user-generated content increases the value of the community in the eyes of its potential new members. The recently introduced metric engagement capacity offers a means of quantitatively assessing the ability of online platform users to engage each other into generating content; meanwhile, the quantity engagement value is useful for quantifying communication-based platform use. If the claim that higher engagement leads to accelerated growth holds true for online health forums (OHFs), then engagement tracking should become an important tool in the arsenal of OHF managers. Indeed, it might allow for quantifying the ability of an OHF to exploit network effects, thus predicting the OHF’s future success. Objective This study aimed to empirically analyze the relationship between internal OHF use (quantified using engagement measurement), and external growth. Methods We collected data from 7 OHFs posted between the years 1999 and 2016. Longitudinal analyses were conducted by evaluating engagement in the OHFs over time. We analyzed 2-way causality effects between the engagement value and metrics evaluating OHF growth using Granger causality tests. User activity metrics per week were correlated with engagement metrics, followed by linear regression analyses. Results Observational data showed a 1-way causal relationship between the OHF engagement value and reach (P=.02). We detected a 2-way causal relationship between the engagement value and delurking, with further analysis indicating that the engagement value was more likely to cause delurking (P<.001 with lag 2; for the reverse hypothesis, P=.01 with lag 2). Users who engaged each other more were more likely (up to 14 times, depending on how much one user engaged another) to develop personal connections. Finally, we found that the more engaging an OHF user was in a given week, the more likely (up to 2 times, depending on their ability to engage others) they were to remain active in the OHF in the following week. Conclusions This study supports the claim that network effects play an important role in accelerating OHF growth, opening the door to exploiting these effects in calculated ways. In such efforts, engagement metrics can be used to monitor the “health” of an OHF and to identify the users most important to its success. PMID:28851677
Environment degradation, economic growth and energy consumption nexus: A wavelet-windowed cross correlation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

2015-10-01

This paper analyzes the interactive linkages between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption (EC) and economic growth (EG) using a novel approach namely wavelet windowed cross correlation (WWCC) for six oil-exporting countries from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) region over the period 1980-2012. Our empirical results show that there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between EC and EG. However, the results support the occurrence of unidirectional causality from EC to CO2 emissions without any feedback effects, and there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between EG and CO2 emissions for the region as a whole. The study suggests that environmental and energy policies should recognize the differences in the nexus between EC and EG in order to maintain sustainable EG in the GCC region. Our findings will be useful for GCC countries to better evaluate its situation in the future climate negotiations. The overall findings will help GCC countries assess its position better in future climate change negotiations.
A soft pillow for hard times? Economic insecurity, food intake and body weight in Russia.

PubMed

Staudigel, Matthias

2016-12-01

This study investigates causal effects of economic insecurity on subjective anxiety, food intake, and weight outcomes. A review of psychological and nutrition studies highlights the complexity of processes at work on each stage of this causal chain. Econometric analyses trace the effects along the hypothesized pathway using detailed household panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey from 1994 to 2005. Economic insecurity measures serve as key explanatory variables in regressions and are instrumented by exogenous regional indicators. Results support a causal chain from economic insecurity to weight outcomes for some population subgroups. In contrast to the leading hypothesis that economic insecurity increases body weight, I find strong evidence of a decreasing effect among women. Results suggest further that consumption of foods rich in sugar responds strongly to higher levels of economic insecurity. Heterogeneous impacts of economic insecurity on body weight call for individual-level interventions rather than large-scale action. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The MR-Base platform supports systematic causal inference across the human phenome

PubMed Central

Wade, Kaitlin H; Haberland, Valeriia; Baird, Denis; Laurin, Charles; Burgess, Stephen; Bowden, Jack; Langdon, Ryan; Tan, Vanessa Y; Yarmolinsky, James; Shihab, Hashem A; Timpson, Nicholas J; Evans, David M; Relton, Caroline; Martin, Richard M; Davey Smith, George

2018-01-01

Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used to infer causal relationships between phenotypes, using a strategy known as 2-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) and bypassing the need for individual-level data. However, 2SMR methods are evolving rapidly and GWAS results are often insufficiently curated, undermining efficient implementation of the approach. We therefore developed MR-Base (http://www.mrbase.org): a platform that integrates a curated database of complete GWAS results (no restrictions according to statistical significance) with an application programming interface, web app and R packages that automate 2SMR. The software includes several sensitivity analyses for assessing the impact of horizontal pleiotropy and other violations of assumptions. The database currently comprises 11 billion single nucleotide polymorphism-trait associations from 1673 GWAS and is updated on a regular basis. Integrating data with software ensures more rigorous application of hypothesis-driven analyses and allows millions of potential causal relationships to be efficiently evaluated in phenome-wide association studies. PMID:29846171
Supporting inquiry learning by promoting normative understanding of multivariable causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keselman, Alla

2003-11-01

Early adolescents may lack the cognitive and metacognitive skills necessary for effective inquiry learning. In particular, they are likely to have a nonnormative mental model of multivariable causality in which effects of individual variables are neither additive nor consistent. Described here is a software-based intervention designed to facilitate students' metalevel and performance-level inquiry skills by enhancing their understanding of multivariable causality. Relative to an exploration-only group, sixth graders who practiced predicting an outcome (earthquake risk) based on multiple factors demonstrated increased attention to evidence, improved metalevel appreciation of effective strategies, and a trend toward consistent use of a controlled comparison strategy. Sixth graders who also received explicit instruction in making predictions based on multiple factors showed additional improvement in their ability to compare multiple instances as a basis for inferences and constructed the most accurate knowledge of the system. Gains were maintained in transfer tasks. The cognitive skills and metalevel understanding examined here are essential to inquiry learning.
Do people agree about the causes of behavior? A social relations analysis of behavior ratings and causal attributions.

PubMed

Robins, Richard W; Mendelsohn, Gerald A; Connell, Joanie B; Kwan, Virginia S Y

2004-02-01

Two studies examined consistency and agreement in behavior ratings and causal attributions. In Study 1, participants (N = 280) engaged in a series of getting-acquainted conversations in one of 3 communication media (face-to-face, telephone, computer mediated); in Study 2, participants (N = 120) engaged in a competitive group task. In both studies, participants rated themselves and their interaction partners on a set of behaviors and then made attributions about the causes of those behaviors. The major findings were that (a) participants consistently favored some causal factors over others in explaining both their own and their partners' behavior, supporting the existence of generalized attributional styles; and (b) participants showed moderate self-partner and partner-partner agreement about behavior but virtually no agreement about the causes of behavior. Thus, in brief interactions people tend to see themselves and others through the lens of their stable patterns of perceiving and interpreting behavior.
Mendelian Randomization Studies Do Not Support a Role for Raised Circulating Triglyceride Levels Influencing Type 2 Diabetes, Glucose Levels, or Insulin Resistance

PubMed Central

De Silva, N. Maneka G.; Freathy, Rachel M.; Palmer, Tom M.; Donnelly, Louise A.; Luan, Jian'an; Gaunt, Tom; Langenberg, Claudia; Weedon, Michael N.; Shields, Beverley; Knight, Beatrice A.; Ward, Kirsten J.; Sandhu, Manjinder S.; Harbord, Roger M.; McCarthy, Mark I.; Smith, George Davey; Ebrahim, Shah; Hattersley, Andrew T.; Wareham, Nicholas; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Morris, Andrew D.; Palmer, Colin N.A.; Frayling, Timothy M.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE The causal nature of associations between circulating triglycerides, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes is unclear. We aimed to use Mendelian randomization to test the hypothesis that raised circulating triglyceride levels causally influence the risk of type 2 diabetes and raise normal fasting glucose levels and hepatic insulin resistance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We tested 10 common genetic variants robustly associated with circulating triglyceride levels against the type 2 diabetes status in 5,637 case and 6,860 control subjects and four continuous outcomes (reflecting glycemia and hepatic insulin resistance) in 8,271 nondiabetic individuals from four studies. RESULTS Individuals carrying greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles had increased circulating triglyceride levels (SD 0.59 [95% CI 0.52–0.65] difference between the 20% of individuals with the most alleles and the 20% with the fewest alleles). There was no evidence that the carriers of greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles were at increased risk of type 2 diabetes (per weighted allele odds ratio [OR] 0.99 [95% CI 0.97–1.01]; P = 0.26). In nondiabetic individuals, there was no evidence that carriers of greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles had increased fasting insulin levels (SD 0.00 per weighted allele [95% CI −0.01 to 0.02]; P = 0.72) or increased fasting glucose levels (0.00 [−0.01 to 0.01]; P = 0.88). Instrumental variable analyses confirmed that genetically raised circulating triglyceride levels were not associated with increased diabetes risk, fasting glucose, or fasting insulin and, for diabetes, showed a trend toward a protective association (OR per 1-SD increase in log10 triglycerides: 0.61 [95% CI 0.45–0.83]; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS Genetically raised circulating triglyceride levels do not increase the risk of type 2 diabetes or raise fasting glucose or fasting insulin levels in nondiabetic individuals. One explanation for our results is that raised circulating triglycerides are predominantly secondary to the diabetes disease process rather than causal. PMID:21282362
Surrogate Endpoint Evaluation: Principal Stratification Criteria and the Prentice Definition.

PubMed

Gilbert, Peter B; Gabriel, Erin E; Huang, Ying; Chan, Ivan S F

2015-09-01

A common problem of interest within a randomized clinical trial is the evaluation of an inexpensive response endpoint as a valid surrogate endpoint for a clinical endpoint, where a chief purpose of a valid surrogate is to provide a way to make correct inferences on clinical treatment effects in future studies without needing to collect the clinical endpoint data. Within the principal stratification framework for addressing this problem based on data from a single randomized clinical efficacy trial, a variety of definitions and criteria for a good surrogate endpoint have been proposed, all based on or closely related to the "principal effects" or "causal effect predictiveness (CEP)" surface. We discuss CEP-based criteria for a useful surrogate endpoint, including (1) the meaning and relative importance of proposed criteria including average causal necessity (ACN), average causal sufficiency (ACS), and large clinical effect modification; (2) the relationship between these criteria and the Prentice definition of a valid surrogate endpoint; and (3) the relationship between these criteria and the consistency criterion (i.e., assurance against the "surrogate paradox"). This includes the result that ACN plus a strong version of ACS generally do not imply the Prentice definition nor the consistency criterion, but they do have these implications in special cases. Moreover, the converse does not hold except in a special case with a binary candidate surrogate. The results highlight that assumptions about the treatment effect on the clinical endpoint before the candidate surrogate is measured are influential for the ability to draw conclusions about the Prentice definition or consistency. In addition, we emphasize that in some scenarios that occur commonly in practice, the principal strata sub-populations for inference are identifiable from the observable data, in which cases the principal stratification framework has relatively high utility for the purpose of effect modification analysis, and is closely connected to the treatment marker selection problem. The results are illustrated with application to a vaccine efficacy trial, where ACN and ACS for an antibody marker are found to be consistent with the data and hence support the Prentice definition and consistency.
Does parenting affect children's eating and weight status?

PubMed Central

Ventura, Alison K; Birch, Leann L

2008-01-01

Background Worldwide, the prevalence of obesity among children has increased dramatically. Although the etiology of childhood obesity is multifactorial, to date, most preventive interventions have focused on school-aged children in school settings and have met with limited success. In this review, we focus on another set of influences that impact the development of children's eating and weight status: parenting and feeding styles and practices. Our review has two aims: (1) to assess the extent to which current evidence supports the hypothesis that parenting, via its effects on children's eating, is causally implicated in childhood obesity; and (2) to identify a set of promising strategies that target aspects of parenting, which can be further evaluated as possible components in childhood obesity prevention. Methods A literature review was conducted between October 2006 and January 2007. Studies published before January 2007 that assessed the association between some combination of parenting, child eating and child weight variables were included. Results A total of 66 articles met the inclusion criteria. The preponderance of these studies focused on the association between parenting and child eating. Although there was substantial experimental evidence for the influence of parenting practices, such as pressure, restriction, modeling and availability, on child eating, the majority of the evidence for the association between parenting and child weight, or the mediation of this association by child eating, was cross-sectional. Conclusion To date, there is substantial causal evidence that parenting affects child eating and there is much correlational evidence that child eating and weight influence parenting. There are few studies, however, that have used appropriate meditational designs to provide causal evidence for the indirect effect of parenting on weight status via effects on child eating. A new approach is suggested for evaluating the effectiveness of intervention components and creating optimized intervention programs using a multiphase research design. Adoption of approaches such as the Multiphase Optimization Strategy (MOST) is necessary to provide the mechanistic evidence-base needed for the design and implementation of effective childhood obesity prevention programs. PMID:18346282
Surrogate Endpoint Evaluation: Principal Stratification Criteria and the Prentice Definition

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Peter B.; Gabriel, Erin E.; Huang, Ying; Chan, Ivan S.F.

2015-01-01

A common problem of interest within a randomized clinical trial is the evaluation of an inexpensive response endpoint as a valid surrogate endpoint for a clinical endpoint, where a chief purpose of a valid surrogate is to provide a way to make correct inferences on clinical treatment effects in future studies without needing to collect the clinical endpoint data. Within the principal stratification framework for addressing this problem based on data from a single randomized clinical efficacy trial, a variety of definitions and criteria for a good surrogate endpoint have been proposed, all based on or closely related to the “principal effects” or “causal effect predictiveness (CEP)” surface. We discuss CEP-based criteria for a useful surrogate endpoint, including (1) the meaning and relative importance of proposed criteria including average causal necessity (ACN), average causal sufficiency (ACS), and large clinical effect modification; (2) the relationship between these criteria and the Prentice definition of a valid surrogate endpoint; and (3) the relationship between these criteria and the consistency criterion (i.e., assurance against the “surrogate paradox”). This includes the result that ACN plus a strong version of ACS generally do not imply the Prentice definition nor the consistency criterion, but they do have these implications in special cases. Moreover, the converse does not hold except in a special case with a binary candidate surrogate. The results highlight that assumptions about the treatment effect on the clinical endpoint before the candidate surrogate is measured are influential for the ability to draw conclusions about the Prentice definition or consistency. In addition, we emphasize that in some scenarios that occur commonly in practice, the principal strata sub-populations for inference are identifiable from the observable data, in which cases the principal stratification framework has relatively high utility for the purpose of effect modification analysis, and is closely connected to the treatment marker selection problem. The results are illustrated with application to a vaccine efficacy trial, where ACN and ACS for an antibody marker are found to be consistent with the data and hence support the Prentice definition and consistency. PMID:26722639
The microsporidian Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei is not the cause of white feces syndrome in whiteleg shrimp Penaeus (Litopenaeus) vannamei

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The microsporidian Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei was first described from Thailand in 2009 in farmed, indigenous giant tiger shrimp Penaeus (Penaeus) monodon. The natural reservoir for the parasite is still unknown. More recently, a microsporidian closely resembling it in morphology and tissue preference was found in Thai-farmed, exotic, whiteleg shrimp Penaeus (Litopenaeus) vannamei exhibiting white feces syndrome (WFS). Our objective was to compare the newly found pathogen with E. hepatopenaei and to determine its causal relationship with WFS. Results Generic primers used to amplify a fragment of the small subunit ribosomal RNA (ssu rRNA) gene for cloning and sequencing revealed that the new parasite from WFS ponds had 99% sequence identity to that of E. hepatopenaei, suggesting it was conspecific. Normal histological analysis using tissue sections stained with hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) revealed that relatively few tubule epithelial cells exhibited spores, suggesting that the infections were light. However, the H&E results were deceptive since nested PCR and in situ hybridization analysis based on the cloned ssu rRNA gene fragment revealed very heavy infections in tubule epithelial cells in the central region of the hepatopancreas in the absence of spores. Despite these results, high prevalence of E. hepatopenaei in shrimp from ponds not exhibiting WFS and a pond that had recovered from WFS indicated no direct causal association between these infections and WFS. This was supported by laboratory oral challenge trials that revealed direct horizontal transmission to uninfected shrimp but no signs of WFS. Conclusions The microsporidian newly found in P. vannamei is conspecific with previously described E. hepatopenaei and it is not causally associated with WFS. However, the deceptive severity of infections (much greater than previously reported in P. monodon) would undoubtedly have a negative effect on whiteleg shrimp growth and production efficiency and this could be exacerbated by the possibility of horizontal transmission revealed by laboratory challenge tests. Thus, it is recommended that the PCR and in situ hybridization methods developed herein be used to identify the natural reservoir species so they can be eliminated from the shrimp rearing system. PMID:23856195
Zika Virus Infection as a Cause of Congenital Brain Abnormalities and Guillain-Barré Syndrome: Systematic Review.

PubMed

Krauer, Fabienne; Riesen, Maurane; Reveiz, Ludovic; Oladapo, Olufemi T; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Porgo, Teegwendé V; Haefliger, Anina; Broutet, Nathalie J; Low, Nicola

2017-01-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) stated in March 2016 that there was scientific consensus that the mosquito-borne Zika virus was a cause of the neurological disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and of microcephaly and other congenital brain abnormalities based on rapid evidence assessments. Decisions about causality require systematic assessment to guide public health actions. The objectives of this study were to update and reassess the evidence for causality through a rapid and systematic review about links between Zika virus infection and (a) congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, in the foetuses and offspring of pregnant women and (b) GBS in any population, and to describe the process and outcomes of an expert assessment of the evidence about causality. The study had three linked components. First, in February 2016, we developed a causality framework that defined questions about the relationship between Zika virus infection and each of the two clinical outcomes in ten dimensions: temporality, biological plausibility, strength of association, alternative explanations, cessation, dose-response relationship, animal experiments, analogy, specificity, and consistency. Second, we did a systematic review (protocol number CRD42016036693). We searched multiple online sources up to May 30, 2016 to find studies that directly addressed either outcome and any causality dimension, used methods to expedite study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment, and summarised evidence descriptively. Third, WHO convened a multidisciplinary panel of experts who assessed the review findings and reached consensus statements to update the WHO position on causality. We found 1,091 unique items up to May 30, 2016. For congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, we included 72 items; for eight of ten causality dimensions (all except dose-response relationship and specificity), we found that more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association with Zika virus infection. For GBS, we included 36 items, of which more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association in seven of ten dimensions (all except dose-response relationship, specificity, and animal experimental evidence). Articles identified nonsystematically from May 30 to July 29, 2016 strengthened the review findings. The expert panel concluded that (a) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and clusters of microcephaly is that Zika virus infection during pregnancy is a cause of congenital brain abnormalities including microcephaly, and (b) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and GBS is that Zika virus infection is a trigger of GBS. The expert panel recognised that Zika virus alone may not be sufficient to cause either congenital brain abnormalities or GBS but agreed that the evidence was sufficient to recommend increased public health measures. Weaknesses are the limited assessment of the role of dengue virus and other possible cofactors, the small number of comparative epidemiological studies, and the difficulty in keeping the review up to date with the pace of publication of new research. Rapid and systematic reviews with frequent updating and open dissemination are now needed both for appraisal of the evidence about Zika virus infection and for the next public health threats that will emerge. This systematic review found sufficient evidence to say that Zika virus is a cause of congenital abnormalities and is a trigger of GBS.
DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) is a web-based system that provides technical support for states, tribes and other users of the Office of Water's Stressor Identification Guidance. The Stressor Identification Guidance provides a rigorous and scientifically defensible method for determining the causes of biological impairments of aquatic ecosystems. It is being used by states as part of the TMDL process and is being applied to other impaired ecosystems such as Superfund sites. However, because of the complexity of causal relationships in ecosystems, and because the guidance includes a strength-of-evidence analysis which uses multiple causal considerations, the process is complex and information intensive. CADDIS helps users deal with that inherent complexity. Increasingly, the regulatory, remedial, and restoration actions taken to manage impaired environments are based on measurement and analysis of the biotic community. When an aquatic assemblage has been identified as impaired, an accurate and defensible assessment of the cause can help ensure that appropriate actions are taken. The U.S. EPA's Stressor Identification Guidance describes a methodology for identifying the most likely causes of observed impairments in aquatic systems. Stressor identification requires extensive knowledge of the mechanisms, symptoms, and stressor-response relationships for various specific stressors as well as the ability to use that knowledge in a
Darwin revisited: The vagus nerve is a causal element in controlling recognition of other's emotions.

PubMed

Colzato, Lorenza S; Sellaro, Roberta; Beste, Christian

2017-07-01

Charles Darwin proposed that via the vagus nerve, the tenth cranial nerve, emotional facial expressions are evolved, adaptive and serve a crucial communicative function. In line with this idea, the later-developed polyvagal theory assumes that the vagus nerve is the key phylogenetic substrate that regulates emotional and social behavior. The polyvagal theory assumes that optimal social interaction, which includes the recognition of emotion in faces, is modulated by the vagus nerve. So far, in humans, it has not yet been demonstrated that the vagus plays a causal role in emotion recognition. To investigate this we employed transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS), a novel non-invasive brain stimulation technique that modulates brain activity via bottom-up mechanisms. A sham/placebo-controlled, randomized cross-over within-subjects design was used to infer a causal relation between the stimulated vagus nerve and the related ability to recognize emotions as indexed by the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test in 38 healthy young volunteers. Active tVNS, compared to sham stimulation, enhanced emotion recognition for easy items, suggesting that it promoted the ability to decode salient social cues. Our results confirm that the vagus nerve is causally involved in emotion recognition, supporting Darwin's argumentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Phase Transitions in Living Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams-Garcia, Rashid Vladimir

Our nervous systems are composed of intricate webs of interconnected neurons interacting in complex ways. These complex interactions result in a wide range of collective behaviors with implications for features of brain function, e.g., information processing. Under certain conditions, such interactions can drive neural network dynamics towards critical phase transitions, where power-law scaling is conjectured to allow optimal behavior. Recent experimental evidence is consistent with this idea and it seems plausible that healthy neural networks would tend towards optimality. This hypothesis, however, is based on two problematic assumptions, which I describe and for which I present alternatives in this thesis. First, critical transitions may vanish due to the influence of an environment, e.g., a sensory stimulus, and so living neural networks may be incapable of achieving "critical" optimality. I develop a framework known as quasicriticality, in which a relative optimality can be achieved depending on the strength of the environmental influence. Second, the power-law scaling supporting this hypothesis is based on statistical analysis of cascades of activity known as neuronal avalanches, which conflate causal and non-causal activity, thus confounding important dynamical information. In this thesis, I present a new method to unveil causal links, known as causal webs, between neuronal activations, thus allowing for experimental tests of the quasicriticality hypothesis and other practical applications.
Do cultural factors affect causal beliefs? Rational and magical thinking in Britain and Mexico.

PubMed

Subbotsky, Eugene; Quinteros, Graciela

2002-11-01

In two experiments, unusual phenomena (spontaneous destruction of objects in an empty wooden box) were demonstrated to adult participants living in rural communities in Mexico. These were accompanied by actions which had no physical link to the destroyed object but could suggest either scientifically based (the effect of an unknown physical device) or non-scientifically based (the effect of a 'magic spell') causal explanations of the event. The results were compared to the results of the matching two experiments from the earlier study made in Britain. The expectation that scientifically based explanations would prevail in British participants' judgments and behaviours, whereas Mexican participants would be more tolerant toward magical explanations, received only partial support. The prevalence of scientific explanations over magical explanations was evident in British participants' verbal judgments but not in Mexican participants' judgments. In their behavioural responses under the low-risk condition, British participants rejected magical explanations more frequently than did Mexican participants. However, when the risk of disregarding the possible causal effect of magic was increased, participants in both samples showed an equal degree of credulity in the possible effect of magic. The data are interpreted in terms of the relationships between scientific and 'folk' representations of causality and object permanence.
Causal biological network database: a comprehensive platform of causal biological network models focused on the pulmonary and vascular systems

PubMed Central

Boué, Stéphanie; Talikka, Marja; Westra, Jurjen Willem; Hayes, William; Di Fabio, Anselmo; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K.; Sewer, Alain; Fields, Brett; Ansari, Sam; Martin, Florian; Veljkovic, Emilija; Kenney, Renee; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hoeng, Julia

2015-01-01

With the wealth of publications and data available, powerful and transparent computational approaches are required to represent measured data and scientific knowledge in a computable and searchable format. We developed a set of biological network models, scripted in the Biological Expression Language, that reflect causal signaling pathways across a wide range of biological processes, including cell fate, cell stress, cell proliferation, inflammation, tissue repair and angiogenesis in the pulmonary and cardiovascular context. This comprehensive collection of networks is now freely available to the scientific community in a centralized web-based repository, the Causal Biological Network database, which is composed of over 120 manually curated and well annotated biological network models and can be accessed at http://causalbionet.com. The website accesses a MongoDB, which stores all versions of the networks as JSON objects and allows users to search for genes, proteins, biological processes, small molecules and keywords in the network descriptions to retrieve biological networks of interest. The content of the networks can be visualized and browsed. Nodes and edges can be filtered and all supporting evidence for the edges can be browsed and is linked to the original articles in PubMed. Moreover, networks may be downloaded for further visualization and evaluation. Database URL: http://causalbionet.com PMID:25887162
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SALMON RECOVERY: AN IRRECONCILABLE CONFLICT?

EPA Science Inventory

Throughout the southern region of western North America, many wild salmon stocks have declined and some have disappeared. The decline was induced by an extensively studied and reasonably well understood combination of causal agents. The public appears to support reversing the d...

Environmental influences on energy balance-related behaviors: A dual-process view

PubMed Central

Kremers, Stef PJ; de Bruijn, Gert-Jan; Visscher, Tommy LS; van Mechelen, Willem; de Vries, Nanne K; Brug, Johannes

2006-01-01

Background Studies on the impact of the 'obesogenic' environment have often used non-theoretical approaches. In this journal's debate and in other papers authors have argued the necessity of formulating conceptual models for differentiating the causal role of environmental influences on behavior. Discussion The present paper aims to contribute to the debate by presenting a dual-process view on the environment – behavior relationship. This view is conceptualized in the EnRG framework (Environmental Research framework for weight Gain prevention). In the framework, behavior is postulated to be the result of a simultaneous influence of conscious and unconscious processes. Environmental influences are hypothesized to influence behavior both indirectly and directly. The indirect causal mechanism reflects the mediating role of behavior-specific cognitions in the influence of the environment on behavior. A direct influence reflects the automatic, unconscious, influence of the environment on behavior. Specific personal and behavioral factors are postulated to moderate the causal path (i.e., inducing either the automatic or the cognitively mediated environment – behavior relation). In addition, the EnRG framework applies an energy balance-approach, stimulating the integrated study of determinants of diet and physical activity. Conclusion The application of a dual-process view may guide research towards causal mechanisms linking specific environmental features with energy balance-related behaviors in distinct populations. The present paper is hoped to contribute to the evolution of a paradigm that may help to disentangle the role of 'obesogenic' environmental factors. PMID:16700907
Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology.

PubMed

Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate; Davey Smith, George

2016-12-01

Triangulation is the practice of obtaining more reliable answers to research questions through integrating results from several different approaches, where each approach has different key sources of potential bias that are unrelated to each other. With respect to causal questions in aetiological epidemiology, if the results of different approaches all point to the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence in the finding. This is particularly the case when the key sources of bias of some of the approaches would predict that findings would point in opposite directions if they were due to such biases. Where there are inconsistencies, understanding the key sources of bias of each approach can help to identify what further research is required to address the causal question. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how triangulation might be used to improve causal inference in aetiological epidemiology. We propose a minimum set of criteria for use in triangulation in aetiological epidemiology, summarize the key sources of bias of several approaches and describe how these might be integrated within a triangulation framework. We emphasize the importance of being explicit about the expected direction of bias within each approach, whenever this is possible, and seeking to identify approaches that would be expected to bias the true causal effect in different directions. We also note the importance, when comparing results, of taking account of differences in the duration and timing of exposures. We provide three examples to illustrate these points. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.
Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: Causal connection or spurious correlation?

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Eric C. Lofroth; Jeffrey P. Copeland; Keith B. Aubry; Audrey J. Magoun

2010-01-01

The recent paper by Brodie and Post ("Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack", Popul Ecol 52:279-287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine's (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data...
Jumping to Conclusions--The PISA Knee-Jerk: Some Remarks on the Current Economic-Educational Discourse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bittlingmayer, Uwe H.; Boutiuc, Alina Florentina; Heinemann, Lars; Kotthoff, Hans-Georg

2016-01-01

Ever since PISA studies have been constantly present in mainstream media, a close relation between academic achievement and economic outcome has been routinely presumed. This essay takes a closer look at some of the most common lines of argument, then goes on to outline a critique of the assumptions underlying the alleged causal relationship…
The Sky Is Falling, but Popenoe's Analysis Won't Help Us Do Anything about It.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cowan, Philip A.

1993-01-01

Responds to previous article by Popenoe on American family decline from 1960 through 1990. Argues that it is possible to reject Popenoe's causal analysis but to accept his conclusion that there is much troubling in the American family. Considers what can be done to reduce prevalence of family distress and increase adaptive functioning of…
Modeling the Mechanism of Action of a DGAT1 Inhibitor Using a Causal Reasoning Platform

PubMed Central

Enayetallah, Ahmed E.; Ziemek, Daniel; Leininger, Michael T.; Randhawa, Ranjit; Yang, Jianxin; Manion, Tara B.; Mather, Dawn E.; Zavadoski, William J.; Kuhn, Max; Treadway, Judith L.; des Etages, Shelly Ann G.; Gibbs, E. Michael; Greene, Nigel; Steppan, Claire M.

2011-01-01

Triglyceride accumulation is associated with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Genetic disruption of diacylglycerol acyltransferase 1 (DGAT1), which catalyzes the final reaction of triglyceride synthesis, confers dramatic resistance to high-fat diet induced obesity. Hence, DGAT1 is considered a potential therapeutic target for treating obesity and related metabolic disorders. However, the molecular events shaping the mechanism of action of DGAT1 pharmacological inhibition have not been fully explored yet. Here, we investigate the metabolic molecular mechanisms induced in response to pharmacological inhibition of DGAT1 using a recently developed computational systems biology approach, the Causal Reasoning Engine (CRE). The CRE algorithm utilizes microarray transcriptomic data and causal statements derived from the biomedical literature to infer upstream molecular events driving these transcriptional changes. The inferred upstream events (also called hypotheses) are aggregated into biological models using a set of analytical tools that allow for evaluation and integration of the hypotheses in context of their supporting evidence. In comparison to gene ontology enrichment analysis which pointed to high-level changes in metabolic processes, the CRE results provide detailed molecular hypotheses to explain the measured transcriptional changes. CRE analysis of gene expression changes in high fat habituated rats treated with a potent and selective DGAT1 inhibitor demonstrate that the majority of transcriptomic changes support a metabolic network indicative of reversal of high fat diet effects that includes a number of molecular hypotheses such as PPARG, HNF4A and SREBPs. Finally, the CRE-generated molecular hypotheses from DGAT1 inhibitor treated rats were found to capture the major molecular characteristics of DGAT1 deficient mice, supporting a phenotype of decreased lipid and increased insulin sensitivity. PMID:22073239
Evaluating the Intervention-Based Evidence Surrounding the Causal Role of Breakfast on Markers of Weight Management, with Specific Focus on Breakfast Composition and Size1234

PubMed Central

Leidy, Heather J; Gwin, Jess A; Roenfeldt, Connor A; Zino, Adam Z; Shafer, Rebecca S

2016-01-01

Nutritional strategies are vitally needed to aid in the management of obesity. Cross-sectional and epidemiologic studies consistently demonstrate that breakfast consumption is strongly associated with a healthy body weight. However, the intervention-based long-term evidence supporting a causal role of breakfast consumption is quite limited and appears to be influenced by several key dietary factors, such as dietary protein, fiber, and energy content. This article provides a comprehensive review of the intervention-based literature that examines the effects of breakfast consumption on markers of weight management and daily food intake. In addition, specific focus on the composition and size (i.e., energy content) of the breakfast meal is included. Overall, there is limited evidence supporting (or refuting) the daily consumption of breakfast for body weight management and daily food intake. In terms of whether the type of breakfast influences these outcomes, there is accumulating evidence supporting the consumption of increased dietary protein and fiber content at breakfast, as well as the consumption of more energy during the morning hours. However, the majority of the studies that manipulated breakfast composition and content did not control for habitual breakfast behaviors, nor did these studies include a breakfast-skipping control arm. Thus, it is unclear whether the addition of these types of breakfast plays a causal role in weight management. Future research, including large randomized controlled trials of longer-term (i.e., ≥6 mo) duration with a focus on key dietary factors, is critical to begin to assess whether breakfast recommendations are appropriate for the prevention and/or treatment of obesity. PMID:27184285
Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

2004-12-01

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial (and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.
Using Complex Networks to Characterize International Business Cycles

PubMed Central

Caraiani, Petre

2013-01-01

Background There is a rapidly expanding literature on the application of complex networks in economics that focused mostly on stock markets. In this paper, we discuss an application of complex networks to study international business cycles. Methodology/Principal Findings We construct complex networks based on GDP data from two data sets on G7 and OECD economies. Besides the well-known correlation-based networks, we also use a specific tool for presenting causality in economics, the Granger causality. We consider different filtering methods to derive the stationary component of the GDP series for each of the countries in the samples. The networks were found to be sensitive to the detrending method. While the correlation networks provide information on comovement between the national economies, the Granger causality networks can better predict fluctuations in countries’ GDP. By using them, we can obtain directed networks allows us to determine the relative influence of different countries on the global economy network. The US appears as the key player for both the G7 and OECD samples. Conclusion The use of complex networks is valuable for understanding the business cycle comovements at an international level. PMID:23483979
Effects of BMI, Fat Mass, and Lean Mass on Asthma in Childhood: A Mendelian Randomization Study

PubMed Central

Granell, Raquel; Henderson, A. John; Evans, David M.; Smith, George Davey; Ness, Andrew R.; Lewis, Sarah; Palmer, Tom M.; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.

2014-01-01

Background Observational studies have reported associations between body mass index (BMI) and asthma, but confounding and reverse causality remain plausible explanations. We aim to investigate evidence for a causal effect of BMI on asthma using a Mendelian randomization approach. Methods and Findings We used Mendelian randomization to investigate causal effects of BMI, fat mass, and lean mass on current asthma at age 7½ y in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). A weighted allele score based on 32 independent BMI-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was derived from external data, and associations with BMI, fat mass, lean mass, and asthma were estimated. We derived instrumental variable (IV) estimates of causal risk ratios (RRs). 4,835 children had available data on BMI-associated SNPs, asthma, and BMI. The weighted allele score was strongly associated with BMI, fat mass, and lean mass (all p-values<0.001) and with childhood asthma (RR 2.56, 95% CI 1.38–4.76 per unit score, p = 0.003). The estimated causal RR for the effect of BMI on asthma was 1.55 (95% CI 1.16–2.07) per kg/m2, p = 0.003. This effect appeared stronger for non-atopic (1.90, 95% CI 1.19–3.03) than for atopic asthma (1.37, 95% CI 0.89–2.11) though there was little evidence of heterogeneity (p = 0.31). The estimated causal RRs for the effects of fat mass and lean mass on asthma were 1.41 (95% CI 1.11–1.79) per 0.5 kg and 2.25 (95% CI 1.23–4.11) per kg, respectively. The possibility of genetic pleiotropy could not be discounted completely; however, additional IV analyses using FTO variant rs1558902 and the other BMI-related SNPs separately provided similar causal effects with wider confidence intervals. Loss of follow-up was unlikely to bias the estimated effects. Conclusions Higher BMI increases the risk of asthma in mid-childhood. Higher BMI may have contributed to the increase in asthma risk toward the end of the 20th century. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24983943
Television's impact on children.

PubMed

Zuckerman, D M; Zuckerman, B S

1985-02-01

Television has a major impact on children's knowledge, attitudes, and behavior. Research has demonstrated the association between television viewing and four areas: (1) children's aggressive behavior; (2) racial and sex-role stereotypes; (3) decreased interest in reading and school activities; and (4) poorer health habits and attitudes. Methodological limitations make it difficult to draw firm conclusions about a causal relationship between television viewing and children's behavior. Representative studies in these four areas are reviewed, important methodological concerns are pointed out, and conclusions from the research findings are drawn. The implications of the data for pediatricians and other health professionals are discussed.
Trans-ethnic follow-up of breast cancer GWAS hits using the preferential linkage disequilibrium approach

PubMed Central

Zhu, Qianqian; Shepherd, Lori; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Yao, Song; Liu, Qian; Hu, Qiang; Haddad, Stephen A.; Sucheston-Campbell, Lara; Bensen, Jeannette T.; Bandera, Elisa V.; Rosenberg, Lynn; Liu, Song; Haiman, Christopher A.; Olshan, Andrew F.; Palmer, Julie R.; Ambrosone, Christine B.

2016-01-01

Leveraging population-distinct linkage equilibrium (LD) patterns, trans-ethnic follow-up of variants discovered from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has proved to be useful in facilitating the identification of bona fide causal variants. We previously developed the preferential LD approach, a novel method that successfully identified causal variants driving the GWAS signals within European-descent populations even when the causal variants were only weakly linked with the GWAS-discovered variants. To evaluate the performance of our approach in a trans-ethnic setting, we applied it to follow up breast cancer GWAS hits identified mostly from populations of European ancestry in African Americans (AA). We evaluated 74 breast cancer GWAS variants in 8,315 AA women from the African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk (AMBER) consortium. Only 27% of them were associated with breast cancer risk at significance level α=0.05, suggesting race-specificity of the identified breast cancer risk loci. We followed up on those replicated GWAS hits in the AMBER consortium utilizing the preferential LD approach, to search for causal variants or better breast cancer markers from the 1000 Genomes variant catalog. Our approach identified stronger breast cancer markers for 80% of the GWAS hits with at least nominal breast cancer association, and in 81% of these cases, the marker identified was among the top 10 of all 1000 Genomes variants in the corresponding locus. The results support trans-ethnic application of the preferential LD approach in search for candidate causal variants, and may have implications for future genetic research of breast cancer in AA women. PMID:27825120
Understanding causal associations between self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults: A review of evidence from longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Craigs, Cheryl L; Twiddy, Maureen; Parker, Stuart G; West, Robert M

2014-01-01

As we age we experience many life changes in our health, personal relationships, work, or home life which can impact on other aspects of our life. There is compelling evidence that how we feel about our health influences, or is influenced by, the personal relationships we experience with friends and relatives. Currently the direction this association takes is unclear. To assess the level of published evidence available on causal links between self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults. MEDLINE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO searches from inception to June 2012 and hand searches of publication lists, reference lists and citations were used to identify primary studies utilizing longitudinal data to investigate self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults. Thirty-one articles were identified. Only three articles employed methods suitable to explore causal associations between changes in self-rated health and changes in personal relationships. Two of these articles suggested that widowhood leads to a reduction in self-rated health in the short term, while the remaining article suggested a causal relationship between self-rated health and negative emotional support from family or friends, but this was complex and mediated by self-esteem and sense of control. While there is an abundance of longitudinal aging cohorts available which can be used to investigate self-rated health and personal relationships over time the potential for these databases to be used to investigate causal associations is currently not being recognized. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
In defense of causal-formative indicators: A minority report.

PubMed

Bollen, Kenneth A; Diamantopoulos, Adamantios

2017-09-01

Causal-formative indicators directly affect their corresponding latent variable. They run counter to the predominant view that indicators depend on latent variables and are thus often controversial. If present, such indicators have serious implications for factor analysis, reliability theory, item response theory, structural equation models, and most measurement approaches that are based on reflective or effect indicators. Psychological Methods has published a number of influential articles on causal and formative indicators as well as launching the first major backlash against them. This article examines 7 common criticisms of these indicators distilled from the literature: (a) A construct measured with "formative" indicators does not exist independently of its indicators; (b) Such indicators are causes rather than measures; (c) They imply multiple dimensions to a construct and this is a liability; (d) They are assumed to be error-free, which is unrealistic; (e) They are inherently subject to interpretational confounding; (f) They fail proportionality constraints; and (g) Their coefficients should be set in advance and not estimated. We summarize each of these criticisms and point out the flaws in the logic and evidence marshaled in their support. The most common problems are not distinguishing between what we call causal-formative and composite-formative indicators, tautological fallacies, and highlighting issues that are common to all indicators, but presenting them as special problems of causal-formative indicators. We conclude that measurement theory needs (a) to incorporate these types of indicators, and (b) to better understand their similarities to and differences from traditional indicators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Private schooling and admission to medicine: a case study using matched samples and causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Houston, Muir; Osborne, Michael; Rimmer, Russell

2015-08-20

Are applicants from private schools advantaged in gaining entry to degrees in medicine? This is of international significance and there is continuing research in a range of nations including the USA, the UK, other English-speaking nations and EU countries. Our purpose is to seek causal explanations using a quantitative approach. We took as a case study admission to medicine in the UK and drew samples of those who attended private schools and those who did not, with sample members matched on background characteristics. Unlike other studies in the area, causal mediation analysis was applied to resolve private-school influence into direct and indirect effects. In so doing, we sought a benchmark, using data for 2004, against which the effectiveness of policies adopted over the past decade can be assessed. Private schooling improved admission likelihood. This did not occur indirectly via the effect of school type on academic performance; but arose directly from attending private schools. A sensitivity analysis suggests this finding is unlikely to be eliminated by the influence of an unobserved variable. Academic excellence is not a certain pathway into medicine at university; yet applying with good grades after attending private school is more certain. The results of our paper differ from those in an earlier observational study and find support in a later study. Consideration of sources of difference from the earlier observational study suggest the causal approach offers substantial benefits and the consequences in the causal study for gender, ethnicity, socio-economic classification and region of residence provide a benchmark for assessing policy in future research.
DNA Methylation and BMI: Investigating Identified Methylation Sites at HIF3A in a Causal Framework.

PubMed

Richmond, Rebecca C; Sharp, Gemma C; Ward, Mary E; Fraser, Abigail; Lyttleton, Oliver; McArdle, Wendy L; Ring, Susan M; Gaunt, Tom R; Lawlor, Debbie A; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

2016-05-01

Multiple differentially methylated sites and regions associated with adiposity have now been identified in large-scale cross-sectional studies. We tested for replication of associations between previously identified CpG sites at HIF3A and adiposity in ∼1,000 mother-offspring pairs from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Availability of methylation and adiposity measures at multiple time points, as well as genetic data, allowed us to assess the temporal associations between adiposity and methylation and to make inferences regarding causality and directionality. Overall, our results were discordant with those expected if HIF3A methylation has a causal effect on BMI and provided more evidence for causality in the reverse direction (i.e., an effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation). These results are based on robust evidence from longitudinal analyses and were also partially supported by Mendelian randomization analysis, although this latter analysis was underpowered to detect a causal effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation. Our results also highlight an apparent long-lasting intergenerational influence of maternal BMI on offspring methylation at this locus, which may confound associations between own adiposity and HIF3A methylation. Further work is required to replicate and uncover the mechanisms underlying the direct and intergenerational effect of adiposity on DNA methylation. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.
Biokinetically-Based In Vitro Cardiotoxicity of Residual Oil Fly Ash: Hazard Identification and Mechanisms of Injury

EPA Science Inventory

Epidemiological studies have associated air pollution particulate matter (PM) exposure with adverse cardiovascular effects. Identification of causal PM sources is critically needed to support regulatory decisions to protect public health. This research examines the in vitro car...
Psychosocial Environment and Affective Outcomes in Technology-Rich Classrooms: Testing a Causal Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dorman, Jeffrey P.; Fraser, Barry J.

2009-01-01

Research investigated classroom environment antecedent variables and student affective outcomes in Australian high schools. The Technology-Rich Outcomes-Focused Learning Environment Inventory (TROFLEI) was used to assess 10 classroom environment dimensions: student cohesiveness, teacher support, involvement, investigation, task orientation,…
Elucidating an Adverse Outcome Pathway of Microcephaly for use in Computational Toxicology (SOT Annual Meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

While evidence now supports a causal link between maternal Zika viral infection and microcephaly, genetic errors and chemical stressors may also precipitate this malformation through disruption of neuroprogenitor cell (NPC) proliferation, migration and differentiation in the earl...
Narrative persuasion, causality, complex integration, and support for obesity policy.

PubMed

Niederdeppe, Jeff; Shapiro, Michael A; Kim, Hye Kyung; Bartolo, Danielle; Porticella, Norman

2014-01-01

Narrative messages have the potential to convey causal attribution information about complex social issues. This study examined attributions about obesity, an issue characterized by interrelated biological, behavioral, and environmental causes. Participants were randomly assigned to read one of three narratives emphasizing societal causes and solutions for obesity or an unrelated story that served as the control condition. The three narratives varied in the extent to which the character in the story acknowledged personal responsibility (high, moderate, and none) for controlling her weight. Stories that featured no acknowledgment and moderate acknowledgment of personal responsibility, while emphasizing environmental causes and solutions, were successful at increasing societal cause attributions about obesity and, among conservatives, increasing support for obesity-related policies relative to the control group. The extent to which respondents were able to make connections between individual and environmental causes of obesity (complex integration) mediated the relationship between the moderate acknowledgment condition and societal cause attributions. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this work for narrative persuasion theory and health communication campaigns.

On the global "two-sided" characteristic Cauchy problem for linear wave equations on manifolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupo, Umberto

2018-04-01

The global characteristic Cauchy problem for linear wave equations on globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifolds is examined, for a class of smooth initial value hypersurfaces satisfying favourable global properties. First it is shown that, if geometrically well-motivated restrictions are placed on the supports of the (smooth) initial datum and of the (smooth) inhomogeneous term, then there exists a continuous global solution which is smooth "on each side" of the initial value hypersurface. A uniqueness result in Sobolev regularity H^{1/2+ɛ }_{loc} is proved among solutions supported in the union of the causal past and future of the initial value hypersurface, and whose product with the indicator function of the causal future (resp. past) of the hypersurface is past compact (resp. future compact). An explicit representation formula for solutions is obtained, which prominently features an invariantly defined, densitised version of the null expansion of the hypersurface. Finally, applications to quantum field theory on curved spacetimes are briefly discussed.
Disgust and the Politics of Sex: Exposure to a Disgusting Odorant Increases Politically Conservative Views on Sex and Decreases Support for Gay Marriage

PubMed Central

Adams, Thomas G.; Stewart, Patrick A.; Blanchar, John C.

2014-01-01

Disgust has been implicated as a potential causal agent underlying socio-political attitudes and behaviors. Several recent studies have suggested that pathogen disgust may be a causal mechanism underlying social conservatism. However, the specificity of this effect is still in question. The present study tested the effects of disgust on a range of policy preferences to clarify whether disgust is generally implicated in political conservatism across public policy attitudes or is uniquely related to specific content domains. Self-reported socio-political attitudes were compared between participants in two experimental conditions: 1) an odorless control condition, and 2) a disgusting odor condition. In keeping with previous research, the present study showed that exposure to a disgusting odor increased endorsement of socially conservative attitudes related to sexuality. In particular, there was a strong and consistent link between induced disgust and less support for gay marriage. PMID:24798457
Intelligence, birth order, and family size.

PubMed

Kanazawa, Satoshi

2012-09-01

The analysis of the National Child Development Study in the United Kingdom (n = 17,419) replicates some earlier findings and shows that genuine within-family data are not necessary to make the apparent birth-order effect on intelligence disappear. Birth order is not associated with intelligence in between-family data once the number of siblings is statistically controlled. The analyses support the admixture hypothesis, which avers that the apparent birth-order effect on intelligence is an artifact of family size, and cast doubt on the confluence and resource dilution models, both of which claim that birth order has a causal influence on children's cognitive development. The analyses suggest that birth order has no genuine causal effect on general intelligence.
Reflux and Voice Disorders: Have We Established Causality?

PubMed Central

Schneider, G. Todd; Vaezi, Michael F.; Francis, David O.

2017-01-01

A trend of attributing abnormal voice changes to reflux has gained momentum among medical professionals over the last few decades. Evidence supporting the connection between reflux and voice and the use of anti-reflux medication in patients with dysphonia is conflicting and deserves careful examination. In the current health care environment, it is important that medical decisions be based on science rather than anecdote and practice patterns. The goal of this review is to investigate the evidence linking reflux and voice changes. Specifically, this association will be examined in the context of the Bradford-Hill criteria to determine what evidence exists for a causal relationship between this exposure (reflux) and outcome (voice change). PMID:28163985
Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel J.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2010-01-01

We showed 10-second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants’ predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. In a horse race of alternative forecasting models, participants’ forecasts significantly outperform economic variables in predicting vote shares, and are comparable in predictive power to a measure of incumbency status. Participants’ forecasts seem to rest on judgments of candidates’ personal attributes (such as likeability), rather than inferences about candidates’ policy positions. Though conclusive causal inference is not possible in our context, our findings may be seen as suggestive evidence of a causal effect of candidate appeal on election outcomes. PMID:20431718
Pornography, sex crime, and paraphilia.

PubMed

Fisher, William A; Kohut, Taylor; Di Gioacchino, Lisha A; Fedoroff, Paul

2013-06-01

The current paper reviews research findings concerning the association of pornography with sexual violence and paraphilic interests. Little clarity concerning the causal impact of pornography on sexual aggression or child-oriented sexual behavior has been achieved in the scientific literature. Laboratory experimentation demonstrates that violent pornography may contribute to antiwoman aggression, but the artificiality and constraints of the experimental setting severely limit generalization of these findings to real-world situations, and observational studies in natural settings consistently find no association or an inverse association of pornography with sexual aggression. In addition, although pedophiles often use child pornography, the causal impact of child pornography on child sexual offending is not conclusive. The current analysis considers the confluence of predisposing factors and pornography use as issues requiring clinical judgment in the reduction of sexual aggression and management of paraphilic interest in children.
The role of sleep dysfunction in the occurrence of delusions and hallucinations: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Reeve, Sarah; Sheaves, Bryony; Freeman, Daniel

2015-01-01

Background Sleep dysfunction is extremely common in patients with schizophrenia. Recent research indicates that sleep dysfunction may contribute to psychotic experiences such as delusions and hallucinations. Objectives The review aims to evaluate the evidence for a relationship between sleep dysfunction and individual psychotic experiences, make links between the theoretical understanding of each, and highlight areas for future research. Method A systematic search was conducted to identify studies investigating sleep and psychotic experiences across clinical and non-clinical populations. Results 66 papers were identified. This literature robustly supports the co-occurrence of sleep dysfunction and psychotic experiences, particularly insomnia with paranoia. Sleep dysfunction predicting subsequent psychotic experiences receives support from epidemiological surveys, research on the transition to psychosis, and relapse studies. There is also evidence that reducing sleep elicits psychotic experiences in non-clinical individuals, and that improving sleep in individuals with psychosis may lessen psychotic experiences. Anxiety and depression consistently arise as (partial) mediators of the sleep and psychosis relationship. Conclusion Studies are needed that: determine the types of sleep dysfunction linked to individual psychotic experiences; establish a causal connection between sleep and psychotic experiences; and assess treatments for sleep dysfunction in patients with non-affective psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia. PMID:26407540
A cross-sectional investigation of parenting style and friendship as mediators of the relation between social class and mental health in a university community.

PubMed

Rubin, Mark; Kelly, Benjamin M

2015-10-05

This study tested a novel explanation for the positive relation between social class and mental health among university students. Students with a higher social class were expected to have experienced more authoritative and less authoritarian parenting styles; these parenting styles were expected to lead to greater friendship and social integration at university; and greater friendship and integration were expected to lead to better mental health. To test this model, the researchers asked 397 Australian undergraduate students to complete an online survey. The research used a cross-sectional correlational design, and the data was analysed using bootstrapped multiple serial mediation tests. Consistent with predictions, parenting style, general friendship and support, and social integration at university mediated the relation between social class and mental health. The present results suggest that working-class parenting styles may inhibit the development of socially-supportive friendships that protect against mental health problems. The potential effectiveness of interventions based on (a) social integration and (b) parenting style is discussed. Future research in this area should employ a longitudinal research design in order to arrive at clearer causal conclusions about the relations between social class, parenting styles, friendship, social integration, and mental health.
Causality Assessment of Serious Neurologic Adverse Events Following 2009 H1N1 Vaccination

PubMed Central

Williams, S Elizabeth; Pahud, Barbara A; Vellozzi, Claudia; Donofrio, Peter D; Dekker, Cornelia L; Halsey, Neal; Klein, Nicola P; Baxter, Roger P; Marchant, Colin D; LaRussa, Philip S; Barnett, Elizabeth D; Tokars, Jerome I; McGeeney, Brian E; Sparks, Robert C; Aukes, Laurie L.; Jakob, Kathleen; Coronel, Silvia; Sejvar, James J; Slade, Barbara A; Edwards, Kathryn M

2016-01-01

Background Adverse events occurring after vaccination are routinely reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). We studied serious adverse events (SAEs) of a neurologic nature reported after receipt of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccine during the 2009–10 influenza season. Investigators in the Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment (CISA) Network sought to characterize these SAEs and to assess their possible causal relationship to vaccination. Methods Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) physicians reviewed all SAE reports (as defined by the Code of Federal Regulations, 21CFR§314.80) after receipt of H1N1 vaccine reported to VAERS between October 1st 2009 and March 31st 2010. Non-fatal SAE reports with neurologic presentation were referred to CISA investigators, who requested and reviewed additional medical records and clinical information as available. CISA investigators assessed the causal relationship between vaccination and the event using modified WHO criteria as defined. Results 212 VAERS reports of non-fatal serious neurological events were referred for CISA review. Case reports were equally distributed by gender (50.9% female) with an age range of 6 months to 83 years (median 38 years). The most frequent diagnoses reviewed were: Guillain-Barré Syndrome (37.3%), seizures (10.8%), cranial neuropathy (5.7%), and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (3.8%). Causality assessment resulted in classification of 72 events as “possibly” related (33%), 108 as “unlikely” related (51%), and 20 as “unrelated” (9%) to H1N1 vaccination; none were classified as “probable” or “definite” and 12 were unclassifiable (6%). Conclusion The absence of a specific test to indicate whether a vaccine component contributes to the pathogenesis of an event occurring within a biologically plausible time period makes assessing causality difficult. The development of standardized protocols for providers to use in evaluation of adverse events following immunization, and rapid identification and follow-up of VAERS reports could improve causality assessment. PMID:21893148
Bidirectional Causal Connectivity in the Cortico-Limbic-Cerebellar Circuit Related to Structural Alterations in First-Episode, Drug-Naive Somatization Disorder

PubMed Central

Li, Ranran; Liu, Feng; Su, Qinji; Zhang, Zhikun; Zhao, Jin; Wang, Ying; Wu, Renrong; Zhao, Jingping; Guo, Wenbin

2018-01-01

Background: Anatomical and functional deficits in the cortico-limbic-cerebellar circuit are involved in the neurobiology of somatization disorder (SD). The present study was performed to examine causal connectivity of the cortico-limbic-cerebellar circuit related to structural deficits in first-episode, drug-naive patients with SD at rest. Methods: A total of 25 first-episode, drug-naive patients with SD and 28 healthy controls underwent structural and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging. Voxel-based morphometry and Granger causality analysis (GCA) were used to analyze the data. Results: Results showed that patients with SD exhibited decreased gray matter volume (GMV) in the right cerebellum Crus I, and increased GMV in the left anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), right middle frontal gyrus (MFG), and left angular gyrus. Causal connectivity of the cortico-limbic-cerebellar circuit was partly affected by structural alterations in the patients. Patients with SD showed bidirectional cortico-limbic connectivity abnormalities and bidirectional cortico-cerebellar and limbic-cerebellar connectivity abnormalities. The mean GMV of the right MFG was negatively correlated with the scores of the somatization subscale of the symptom checklist-90 and persistent error response of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) in the patients. A negative correlation was observed between increased driving connectivity from the right MFG to the right fusiform gyrus/cerebellum IV, V and the scores of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire extraversion subscale. The mean GMV of the left ACC was negatively correlated with the WCST number of errors and persistent error response. Negative correlation was found between the causal effect from the left ACC to the right middle temporal gyrus and the scores of WCST number of categories achieved. Conclusions: Our findings show the partial effects of structural alterations on the cortico-limbic-cerebellar circuit in first-episode, drug-naive patients with SD. Correlations are observed between anatomical alterations or causal effects and clinical variables in patients with SD, and bear clinical significance. The present study emphasizes the importance of the cortico-limbic-cerebellar circuit in the neurobiology of SD. PMID:29755373
Intellectual and developmental disabilities in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo: causality and implications for resilience and support.

PubMed

Aldersey, Heather M; Turnbull, H Rutherford; Turnbull, Ann P

2014-06-01

This article reports results of a 7-month qualitative study on intellectual and related developmental disabilities in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, particularly as they relate to the causes and meaning of intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). This study raises important questions related to the understanding of resilience of persons affected by IDD and the nature and purpose of support they use or desire.
Representing causal knowledge in environmental policy interventions: Advantages and opportunities for qualitative influence diagram applications

EPA Science Inventory

This article develops and explores a methodology for using qualitative influence diagrams in environmental policy and management to support decision-making efforts that minimize risk and increase resiliency. Influence diagrams are representations of the conditional aspects of a p...
The Causal Effects of Cultural Relevance: Evidence from an Ethnic Studies Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dee, Thomas S.; Penner, Emily K.

2017-01-01

An extensive theoretical and qualitative literature stresses the promise of instructional practices and content aligned with minority students' experiences. Ethnic studies courses provide an example of such "culturally relevant pedagogy" (CRP). Despite theoretical support, quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of these courses is…
The Effect of Thinking Maps on Fifth Grade Science Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Darlene

2013-01-01

Informational texts, such as those found in science education, have historically been reserved for secondary students. With the increased emphasis on elementary students' academic accountability, these high impact instructional strategies must also be utilized to support subject matter comprehension for younger students. This causal-comparative…
Deontic introduction: A theory of inference from is to ought.

PubMed

Elqayam, Shira; Thompson, Valerie A; Wilkinson, Meredith R; Evans, Jonathan St B T; Over, David E

2015-09-01

Humans have a unique ability to generate novel norms. Faced with the knowledge that there are hungry children in Somalia, we easily and naturally infer that we ought to donate to famine relief charities. Although a contentious and lively issue in metaethics, such inference from "is" to "ought" has not been systematically studied in the psychology of reasoning. We propose that deontic introduction is the result of a rich chain of pragmatic inference, most of it implicit; specifically, when an action is causally linked to a valenced goal, valence transfers to the action and bridges into a deontic conclusion. Participants in 5 experiments were presented with utility conditionals in which an action results in a benefit, a cost, or neutral outcome (e.g., "If Lisa buys the booklet, she will pass the exam") and asked to evaluate how strongly deontic conclusions (e.g., "Lisa should buy the booklet") follow from the premises. Findings show that the direction of the conclusions was determined by outcome valence (Experiments 1a and 1b), whereas their strength was determined by the strength of the causal link between action and outcome (Experiments 1, 2a, and 2b). We also found that deontic introduction is defeasible and can be suppressed by additional premises that interfere with any of the links in the implicit chain of inference (Experiments 2a, 2b, and 3). We propose that deontic introduction is a species-specific generative capacity whose function is to regulate future behavior. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Investigating genetic correlations and causal effects between caffeine consumption and sleep behaviours.

PubMed

Treur, Jorien L; Gibson, Mark; Taylor, Amy E; Rogers, Peter J; Munafò, Marcus R

2018-04-22

Observationally, higher caffeine consumption is associated with poorer sleep and insomnia. We investigated whether these associations are a result of shared genetic risk factors and/or (possibly bidirectional) causal effects. Summary-level data were available from genome-wide association studies on caffeine intake (n = 91 462), plasma caffeine and caffeine metabolic rate (n = 9876), sleep duration and chronotype (being a "morning" versus an "evening" person) (n = 128 266), and insomnia complaints (n = 113 006). First, genetic correlations were calculated, reflecting the extent to which genetic variants influencing caffeine consumption and those influencing sleep overlap. Next, causal effects were estimated with bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization. This approach utilizes the genetic variants most robustly associated with an exposure variable as an "instrument" to test causal effects. Estimates from individual variants were combined using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis, weighted median regression and MR-Egger regression. We found no clear evidence for a genetic correlation between caffeine intake and sleep duration (rg = 0.000, p = .998), chronotype (rg = 0.086, p = .192) or insomnia complaints (rg = -0.034, p = .700). For plasma caffeine and caffeine metabolic rate, genetic correlations could not be calculated because of the small sample size. Mendelian randomization did not support causal effects of caffeine intake on sleep, or vice versa. There was weak evidence that higher plasma caffeine levels causally decrease the odds of being a morning person. Although caffeine may acutely affect sleep when taken shortly before bedtime, our findings suggest that a sustained pattern of high caffeine consumption is more likely to be associated with poorer sleep through shared environmental factors. Future research should identify such environments, which could aid the development of interventions to improve sleep. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Sleep Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Sleep Research Society.
Automated interviews on clinical case reports to elicit directed acyclic graphs.

PubMed

Luciani, Davide; Stefanini, Federico M

2012-05-01

Setting up clinical reports within hospital information systems makes it possible to record a variety of clinical presentations. Directed acyclic graphs (Dags) offer a useful way of representing causal relations in clinical problem domains and are at the core of many probabilistic models described in the medical literature, like Bayesian networks. However, medical practitioners are not usually trained to elicit Dag features. Part of the difficulty lies in the application of the concept of direct causality before selecting all the causal variables of interest for a specific patient. We designed an automated interview to tutor medical doctors in the development of Dags to represent their understanding of clinical reports. Medical notions were analyzed to find patterns in medical reasoning that can be followed by algorithms supporting the elicitation of causal Dags. Clinical relevance was defined to help formulate only relevant questions by driving an expert's attention towards variables causally related to nodes already inserted in the graph. Key procedural features of the proposed interview are described by four algorithms. The automated interview comprises questions on medical notions, phrased in medical terms. The first elicitation session produces questions concerning the patient's chief complaints and the outcomes related to diseases serving as diagnostic hypotheses, their observable manifestations and risk factors. The second session focuses on questions that refine the initial causal paths by considering syndromes, dysfunctions, pathogenic anomalies, biases and effect modifiers. A case study concerning a gastro-enterological problem and one dealing with an infected patient illustrate the output produced by the algorithms, depending on the answers provided by the doctor. The proposed elicitation framework is characterized by strong consistency with medical background and by a progressive introduction of relevant medical topics. Revision and testing of the subjectively elicited Dag is performed by matching the collected answers with the evidence included in accepted sources of biomedical knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The mediating role of shame in the relationship between childhood bullying victimization and adult psychosocial adjustment

PubMed Central

Strøm, Ida Frugård; Aakvaag, Helene Flood; Birkeland, Marianne Skogbrott; Felix, Erika; Thoresen, Siri

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Psychological distress following experiencing bullying victimization in childhood has been well documented. Less is known about the impact of bullying victimization on psychosocial adjustment problems in young adulthood and about potential pathways, such as shame. Moreover, bullying victimization is often studied in isolation from other forms of victimization. Objective: This study investigated (1) whether childhood experiences of bullying victimization and violence were associated with psychosocial adjustment (distress, impaired functioning, social support barriers) in young adulthood; (2) the unique effect of bullying victimization on psychosocial adjustment; and (3) whether shame mediated the relationship between bullying victimization and these outcomes in young adulthood. Method: The sample included 681 respondents (aged 19–37 years) from a follow-up study (2017) conducted via phone interviews derived from a community telephone survey collected in 2013. Results: The regression analyses showed that both bullying victimization and severe violence were significantly and independently associated with psychological distress, impaired functioning, and increased barriers to social support in young adulthood. Moreover, causal mediation analyses indicated that when childhood physical violence, sexual abuse, and sociodemographic factors were controlled, shame mediated 70% of the association between bullying victimization and psychological distress, 55% of the association between bullying victimization and impaired functioning, and 40% of the association between bullying victimization and social support barriers. Conclusions: Our findings support the growing literature acknowledging bullying victimization as a trauma with severe and long-lasting consequences and indicate that shame may be an important pathway to continue to explore. The unique effect of bullying victimization, over and above the effect of violence, supports the call to integrate the two research fields. PMID:29372013
Factors associated with blood oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure regulation during respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support: data from a swine model

PubMed Central

Park, Marcelo; Mendes, Pedro Vitale; Costa, Eduardo Leite Vieira; Barbosa, Edzangela Vasconcelos Santos; Hirota, Adriana Sayuri; Azevedo, Luciano Cesar Pontes

2016-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to explore the factors associated with blood oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure. Methods The factors associated with oxygen - and carbon dioxide regulation were investigated in an apneic pig model under veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. A predefined sequence of blood and sweep flows was tested. Results Oxygenation was mainly associated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation blood flow (beta coefficient = 0.036mmHg/mL/min), cardiac output (beta coefficient = -11.970mmHg/L/min) and pulmonary shunting (beta coefficient = -0.232mmHg/%). Furthermore, the initial oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure measurements were also associated with oxygenation, with beta coefficients of 0.160 and 0.442mmHg/mmHg, respectively. Carbon dioxide partial pressure was associated with cardiac output (beta coefficient = 3.578mmHg/L/min), sweep gas flow (beta coefficient = -2.635mmHg/L/min), temperature (beta coefficient = 4.514mmHg/ºC), initial pH (beta coefficient = -66.065mmHg/0.01 unit) and hemoglobin (beta coefficient = 6.635mmHg/g/dL). Conclusion In conclusion, elevations in blood and sweep gas flows in an apneic veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation model resulted in an increase in oxygen partial pressure and a reduction in carbon dioxide partial pressure 2, respectively. Furthermore, without the possibility of causal inference, oxygen partial pressure was negatively associated with pulmonary shunting and cardiac output, and carbon dioxide partial pressure was positively associated with cardiac output, core temperature and initial hemoglobin. PMID:27096671
Childhood trauma and health outcomes in HIV-infected patients: An exploration of causal pathways

PubMed Central

Pence, Brian Wells; Mugavero, Michael J.; Carter, Tandrea J.; Leserman, Jane; Thielman, Nathan M.; Raper, James L.; Proeschold-Bell, Rae Jean; Reif, Susan; Whetten, Kathryn

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE Traumatic life histories are highly prevalent in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and predict sexual risk behaviors, medication adherence, and all-cause mortality. Yet the causal pathways explaining these relationships remain poorly understood. We sought to quantify the association of trauma with negative behavioral and health outcomes and to assess whether those associations were explained by mediation through psychosocial characteristics. METHODS In 611 outpatient PLWHA, we tested whether trauma's influence on later health and behaviors was mediated by coping styles, self efficacy, social support, trust in the medical system, recent stressful life events, mental health, and substance abuse. RESULTS In models adjusting only for sociodemographic and transmission category confounders (estimating total effects), past trauma exposure was associated with 7 behavioral and health outcomes including increased odds or hazard of recent unprotected sex (OR=1.17 per each additional type of trauma, 95% CI=1.07–1.29), medication nonadherence (OR=1.13, 1.02–1.25), hospitalizations (HR=1.12, 1.04–1.22), and HIV disease progression (HR=1.10, 0.98–1.23). When all hypothesized mediators were included, the associations of trauma with health care utilization outcomes were reduced by about 50%, suggesting partial mediation (e.g., OR for hospitalization changed from 1.12 to 1.07) whereas point estimates for behavioral and incident health outcomes remained largely unchanged, suggesting no mediation (e.g., OR for unprotected sex changed from 1.17 to 1.18). Trauma remained associated with most outcomes even after adjusting for all hypothesized psychosocial mediators. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that past trauma influences adult health and behaviors through pathways other than the psychosocial mediators considered in this model. PMID:22107822

The association between varicella (chickenpox) and group A streptococcus infections in historical perspective

PubMed Central

Coleman, Stephen

2016-01-01

Objectives: The aim of the research is to investigate the historical relationship between varicella and Streptococcus pyogenes infections. In the past few decades, varicella has been identified as a risk factor for invasive group A streptococcus infections. The question is whether this relationship also existed between varicella and scarlet fever in the historical era. Methods: The analysis begins with a search of historical medical reports on the relationship between varicella and scarlet fever epidemics in the late 19th and early 20th century, as well as in more recent empirical studies. Correlations and cross-correlations between varicella and scarlet fever are analyzed using weekly public health case reports from 1924 to 1932 for Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia. Regression models are used to estimate the relationship between varicella and scarlet fever after controlling for seasonal forcing. Results: Historical records give limited support for a causal relationship between varicella and scarlet fever but indicate that these diseases often occurred close in time to each other. Likewise, statistical analysis shows that varicella and scarlet fever epidemics are closely aligned with each other, and varicella has a strong relationship with scarlet fever. The relationship is stronger than reported in any previous research on the two diseases. Conclusion: The close correspondence of the two diseases likely depends on multiple factors, including seasonal forcing, a causal relationship, and co-infections. The results raise questions about whether this close relationship might have had a synergistic effect or a role in the evolution of S. pyogenes from the virulent, high incidence epidemics of the 19th century to the relatively benign scarlet fever of the 1950s. PMID:27504182
High-Density Genotyping of Immune Loci in Koreans and Europeans Identifies Eight New Rheumatoid Arthritis Risk Loci

PubMed Central

Kim, Kwangwoo; Bang, So-Young; Lee, Hye-Soon; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Choi, Chan-Bum; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung; Kim, Tae-Hwan; Jun, Jae-Bum; Yoo, Dae Hyun; Kang, Young Mo; Kim, Seong-Kyu; Suh, Chang-Hee; Shim, Seung-Cheol; Lee, Shin-Seok; Lee, Jisoo; Chung, Won Tae; Choe, Jung-Yoon; Shin, Hyoung Doo; Lee, Jong-Young; Han, Bok-Ghee; Nath, Swapan K.; Eyre, Steve; Bowes, John; Pappas, Dimitrios A.; Kremer, Joel M.; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Ärlestig, Lisbeth; Okada, Yukinori; Diogo, Dorothée; Liao, Katherine P.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Rantapää-Dahlqvist, Solbritt; Martin, Javier; Klareskog, Lars; Padyukov, Leonid; Gregersen, Peter K.; Worthington, Jane; Greenberg, Jeffrey D.; Plenge, Robert M.; Bae, Sang-Cheol

2015-01-01

Objective A highly polygenic etiology and high degree of allele-sharing between ancestries have been well-elucidated in genetic studies of rheumatoid arthritis. Recently, the high-density genotyping array Immunochip for immune disease loci identified 14 new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci among individuals of European ancestry. Here, we aimed to identify new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci using Korean-specific Immunochip data. Methods We analyzed Korean rheumatoid arthritis case-control samples using the Immunochip and GWAS array to search for new risk alleles of rheumatoid arthritis with anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies. To increase power, we performed a meta-analysis of Korean data with previously published European Immunochip and GWAS data, for a total sample size of 9,299 Korean and 45,790 European case-control samples. Results We identified 8 new rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci (TNFSF4, LBH, EOMES, ETS1–FLI1, COG6, RAD51B, UBASH3A and SYNGR1) that passed a genome-wide significance threshold (p<5×10−8), with evidence for three independent risk alleles at 1q25/TNFSF4. The risk alleles from the 7 new loci except for the TNFSF4 locus (monomorphic in Koreans), together with risk alleles from previously established RA risk loci, exhibited a high correlation of effect sizes between ancestries. Further, we refined the number of SNPs that represent potentially causal variants through a trans-ethnic comparison of densely genotyped SNPs. Conclusion This study demonstrates the advantage of dense-mapping and trans-ancestral analysis for identification of potentially causal SNPs. In addition, our findings support the importance of T cells in the pathogenesis and the fact of frequent overlap of risk loci among diverse autoimmune diseases. PMID:24532676
Does injury compensation lead to worse health after whiplash? A systematic review.

PubMed

Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B; Gargett, Susan; Sterling, Michele

2012-06-01

One might expect that injury compensation would leave injured parties better off than they would otherwise have been, yet many believe that compensation does more harm than good. This study systematically reviews the evidence on this "compensation hypothesis" in relation to compensable whiplash injuries. PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, PEDro, PsycInfo, CCTR, Lexis, and EconLit were searched from the date of their inception to April 2010 to locate longitudinal studies, published in English, comparing the health outcomes of adults exposed/not exposed to compensation-related factors. Studies concerning serious neck injuries, using claimants only, or using proxy measures of health outcomes were excluded. Eleven studies were included. These examined the effect of lawyer involvement, litigation, claim submission, or previous claims on pain and other health outcomes. Among the 16 results reported were 9 statistically significant negative associations between compensation-related factors and health outcomes. Irrespective of the compensation-related factor involved and the health outcome measured, the quality of these studies was similar to studies that did not find a significant negative association: most took some measures to address selection bias, confounding, and measurement bias, and none resolved the potential for reverse causality bias that arises in the relationship between compensation-related factors and health. Unless ambiguous causal pathways are addressed, one cannot draw conclusions from statistical associations, regardless of their statistical significance and the extent of measures to address other sources of bias. Consequently, there is no clear evidence to support the idea that compensation and its related processes lead to worse health. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Decreased serum pyridoxal levels in schizophrenia: meta-analysis and Mendelian randomization analysis

PubMed Central

Tomioka, Yukiko; Kinoshita, Makoto; Umehara, Hidehiro; Watanabe, Shin-ya; Nakataki, Masahito; Iwayama, Yoshimi; Toyota, Tomoko; Ikeda, Masashi; Yamamori, Hidenaga; Shimodera, Shinji; Tajima, Atsushi; Hashimoto, Ryota; Iwata, Nakao; Yoshikawa, Takeo; Ohmori, Tetsuro

2018-01-01

Background Alterations in one-carbon metabolism have been associated with schizophrenia, and vitamin B6 is one of the key components in this pathway. Methods We first conducted a case–control study of serum pyridoxal levels and schizophrenia in a large Japanese cohort (n = 1276). Subsequently, we conducted a meta-analysis of association studies (n = 2125). Second, we investigated whether rs4654748, which was identified in a genome-wide association study as a vitamin B6-related single nucleotide polymorphism, was genetically implicated in patients with schizophrenia in the Japanese population (n = 10 689). Finally, we assessed the effect of serum pyridoxal levels on schizophrenia risk using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Results Serum pyridoxal levels were significantly lower in patients with schizophrenia than in controls, not only in our cohort, but also in the pooled data set of the meta-analysis of association studies (standardized mean difference −0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.57 to −0.39, p = 9.8 × 10−24). We failed to find a significant association between rs4654748 and schizophrenia. Furthermore, an MR analysis failed to find a causal relationship between pyridoxal levels and schizophrenia risk (odds ratio 0.99, 95% CI 0.65–1.51, p = 0.96). Limitations Food consumption and medications may have affected serum pyridoxal levels in our cross-sectional study. Sample size, number of instrumental variables and substantial heterogeneity among patients with schizophrenia are limitations of an MR analysis. Conclusion We found decreased serum pyridoxal levels in patients with schizophrenia in this observational study. However, we failed to obtain data supporting a causal relationship between pyridoxal levels and schizophrenia risk using the MR approach. PMID:29688875
What do we know about developing patient portals? a systematic literature review

PubMed Central

de Bont, Antoinette; Rundall, Thomas G; van de Klundert, Joris

2016-01-01

Objective Numerous articles have reported on the development of patient portals, including development problems and solutions. We review these articles to inform future patient portal development efforts and to provide a summary of the evidence base that can guide future research. Materials and Methods We performed a systematic review of relevant literature to answer 5 questions: (1) What categories of problems related to patient portal development have been defined? (2) What causal factors have been identified by problem analysis and diagnosis? (3) What solutions have been proposed to ameliorate these causal factors? (4) Which proposed solutions have been implemented and in which organizational contexts? (5) Have implemented solutions been evaluated and what learning has been generated? Through searches on PubMed, ScienceDirect and LISTA, we included 109 articles. Results We identified 5 main problem categories: achieving patient engagement, provider engagement, appropriate data governance, security and interoperability, and a sustainable business model. Further, we identified key factors contributing to these problems as well as solutions proposed to ameliorate them. While about half (45) of the 109 articles proposed solutions, fewer than half of these solutions (18) were implemented, and even fewer (5) were evaluated to generate learning about their effects. Discussion Few studies systematically report on the patient portal development processes. As a result, the review does not provide an evidence base for portal development. Conclusion Our findings support a set of recommendations for advancement of the evidence base: future research should build on existing evidence, draw on principles from design sciences conveyed in the problem-solving cycle, and seek to produce evidence within various different organizational contexts. PMID:26335985
Hemispheric lateralization in top-down attention during spatial relation processing: a Granger causal model approach.

PubMed

Falasca, N W; D'Ascenzo, S; Di Domenico, A; Onofrj, M; Tommasi, L; Laeng, B; Franciotti, R

2015-04-01

Magnetoencephalography was recorded during a matching-to-sample plus cueing paradigm, in which participants judged the occurrence of changes in either categorical (CAT) or coordinate (COO) spatial relations. Previously, parietal and frontal lobes were identified as key areas in processing spatial relations and it was shown that each hemisphere was differently involved and modulated by the scope of the attention window (e.g. a large and small cue). In this study, Granger analysis highlighted the patterns of causality among involved brain areas--the direction of information transfer ran from the frontal to the visual cortex in the right hemisphere, whereas it ran in the opposite direction in the left side. Thus, the right frontal area seems to exert top-down influence, supporting the idea that, in this task, top-down signals are selectively related to the right side. Additionally, for CAT change preceded by a small cue, the right frontal gyrus was not involved in the information transfer, indicating a selective specialization of the left hemisphere for this condition. The present findings strengthen the conclusion of the presence of a remarkable hemispheric specialization for spatial relation processing and illustrate the complex interactions between the lateralized parts of the neural network. Moreover, they illustrate how focusing attention over large or small regions of the visual field engages these lateralized networks differently, particularly in the frontal regions of each hemisphere, consistent with the theory that spatial relation judgements require a fronto-parietal network in the left hemisphere for categorical relations and on the right hemisphere for coordinate spatial processing. © 2015 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
A Multi-Ethnic Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies in Over 100,000 Subjects Identifies 23 Fibrinogen-Associated Loci but no Strong Evidence of a Causal Association between Circulating Fibrinogen and Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Sabater-Lleal, Maria; Huang, Jie; Chasman, Daniel; Naitza, Silvia; Dehghan, Abbas; Johnson, Andrew D; Teumer, Alexander; Reiner, Alex P; Folkersen, Lasse; Basu, Saonli; Rudnicka, Alicja R; Trompet, Stella; Mälarstig, Anders; Baumert, Jens; Bis, Joshua C.; Guo, Xiuqing; Hottenga, Jouke J; Shin, So-Youn; Lopez, Lorna M; Lahti, Jari; Tanaka, Toshiko; Yanek, Lisa R; Oudot-Mellakh, Tiphaine; Wilson, James F; Navarro, Pau; Huffman, Jennifer E; Zemunik, Tatijana; Redline, Susan; Mehra, Reena; Pulanic, Drazen; Rudan, Igor; Wright, Alan F; Kolcic, Ivana; Polasek, Ozren; Wild, Sarah H; Campbell, Harry; Curb, J David; Wallace, Robert; Liu, Simin; Eaton, Charles B.; Becker, Diane M.; Becker, Lewis C.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Räikkönen, Katri; Widen, Elisabeth; Palotie, Aarno; Fornage, Myriam; Green, David; Gross, Myron; Davies, Gail; Harris, Sarah E; Liewald, David C; Starr, John M; Williams, Frances M.K.; Grant, P.J.; Spector, Timothy D.; Strawbridge, Rona J; Silveira, Angela; Sennblad, Bengt; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; van Dongen, Jenny; Willemsen, G; Boomsma, Dorret I; Yao, Jie; Jenny, Nancy Swords; Haritunians, Talin; McKnight, Barbara; Lumley, Thomas; Taylor, Kent D; Rotter, Jerome I; Psaty, Bruce M; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Illig, Thomas; Grotevendt, Anne; Homuth, Georg; Völzke, Henry; Kocher, Thomas; Goel, Anuj; Franzosi, Maria Grazia; Seedorf, Udo; Clarke, Robert; Steri, Maristella; Tarasov, Kirill V; Sanna, Serena; Schlessinger, David; Stott, David J; Sattar, Naveed; Buckley, Brendan M; Rumley, Ann; Lowe, Gordon D; McArdle, Wendy L; Chen, Ming-Huei; Tofler, Geoffrey H; Song, Jaejoon; Boerwinkle, Eric; Folsom, Aaron R.; Rose, Lynda M.; Franco-Cereceda, Anders; Teichert, Martina; Ikram, M Arfan; Mosley, Thomas H; Bevan, Steve; Dichgans, Martin; Rothwell, Peter M.; Sudlow, Cathie L M; Hopewell, Jemma C.; Chambers, John C.; Saleheen, Danish; Kooner, Jaspal S.; Danesh, John; Nelson, Christopher P; Erdmann, Jeanette; Reilly, Muredach P.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Schunkert, Heribert; Morange, Pierre-Emmanuel; Ferrucci, Luigi; Eriksson, Johan G; Jacobs, David; Deary, Ian J; Soranzo, Nicole; Witteman, Jacqueline CM; de Geus, Eco JC; Tracy, Russell P.; Hayward, Caroline; Koenig, Wolfgang; Cucca, Francesco; Jukema, J Wouter; Eriksson, Per; Seshadri, Sudha; Markus, Hugh S.; Watkins, Hugh; Samani, Nilesh J; Wallaschofski, Henri; Smith, Nicholas L.; Tregouet, David; Ridker, Paul M.; Tang, Weihong; Strachan, David P.; Hamsten, Anders; O’Donnell, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

Background Estimates of the heritability of plasma fibrinogen concentration, an established predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), range from 34 to 50%. Genetic variants so far identified by genome-wide association (GWA) studies only explain a small proportion (< 2%) of its variation. Methods and Results We conducted a meta-analysis of 28 GWA studies, including more than 90,000 subjects of European ancestry, the first GWA meta-analysis of fibrinogen levels in 7 African Americans studies totaling 8,289 samples, and a GWA study in Hispanic-Americans totaling 1,366 samples. Evaluation for association of SNPs with clinical outcomes included a total of 40,695 cases and 85,582 controls for coronary artery disease (CAD), 4,752 cases and 24,030 controls for stroke, and 3,208 cases and 46,167 controls for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Overall, we identified 24 genome-wide significant (P<5×10−8) independent signals in 23 loci, including 15 novel associations, together accounting for 3.7% of plasma fibrinogen variation. Gene-set enrichment analysis highlighted key roles in fibrinogen regulation for the three structural fibrinogen genes and pathways related to inflammation, adipocytokines and thyrotrophin-releasing hormone signaling. Whereas lead SNPs in a few loci were significantly associated with CAD, the combined effect of all 24 fibrinogen-associated lead SNPs was not significant for CAD, stroke or VTE. Conclusion We identify 23 robustly associated fibrinogen loci, 15 of which are new. Clinical outcome analysis of these loci does not support a causal relationship between circulating levels of fibrinogen and CAD, stroke or VTE. PMID:23969696
Causal biological network database: a comprehensive platform of causal biological network models focused on the pulmonary and vascular systems.

PubMed

Boué, Stéphanie; Talikka, Marja; Westra, Jurjen Willem; Hayes, William; Di Fabio, Anselmo; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K; Sewer, Alain; Fields, Brett; Ansari, Sam; Martin, Florian; Veljkovic, Emilija; Kenney, Renee; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

2015-01-01

With the wealth of publications and data available, powerful and transparent computational approaches are required to represent measured data and scientific knowledge in a computable and searchable format. We developed a set of biological network models, scripted in the Biological Expression Language, that reflect causal signaling pathways across a wide range of biological processes, including cell fate, cell stress, cell proliferation, inflammation, tissue repair and angiogenesis in the pulmonary and cardiovascular context. This comprehensive collection of networks is now freely available to the scientific community in a centralized web-based repository, the Causal Biological Network database, which is composed of over 120 manually curated and well annotated biological network models and can be accessed at http://causalbionet.com. The website accesses a MongoDB, which stores all versions of the networks as JSON objects and allows users to search for genes, proteins, biological processes, small molecules and keywords in the network descriptions to retrieve biological networks of interest. The content of the networks can be visualized and browsed. Nodes and edges can be filtered and all supporting evidence for the edges can be browsed and is linked to the original articles in PubMed. Moreover, networks may be downloaded for further visualization and evaluation. Database URL: http://causalbionet.com © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.
Why cachexia kills: examining the causality of poor outcomes in wasting conditions.

PubMed

Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Rhee, Connie; Sim, John J; Stenvinkel, Peter; Anker, Stefan D; Kovesdy, Csaba P

2013-06-01

Weight loss is the hallmark of any progressive acute or chronic disease state. In its extreme form of significant lean body mass (including skeletal muscle) and fat loss, it is referred to as cachexia. It has been known for millennia that muscle and fat wasting leads to poor outcomes including death. On one hand, conditions and risk factors that lead to cachexia and inadequate nutrition may independently lead to increased mortality. Additionaly, cachexia per se, withdrawal of nutritional support in progressive cachexia, and advanced age may lead to death via cachexia-specific pathways. Despite the strong and consistent association of cachexia with mortality, no unifying mechanism has yet been suggested as to why wasting conditions are associated with an exceptionally high mortality risk. Hence, the causality of the cachexia-death association, even though it is biologically plausible, is widely unknown. This century-long uncertainty may have played a role as to why the field of cachexia treatment development has not shown major advances over the past decades. We suggest that cachexia-associated relative thrombocytosis and platelet activation may play a causal role in cachexia-related death, while other mechanisms may also contribute including arrhythmia-associated sudden deaths, endocrine disorders such as hypothyroidism, and immune system compromise leading to infectious events and deaths. Multidimensional research including examining biologically plausible models is urgently needed to investigate the causality of the cachexia-death association.
A Analysis of the Development of Weather Concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mroz, Paul John

Weather information in all forms is poorly understood and often misinterpreted by the general public. Weather literacy is necessary for everyone if critical weather messages, designed to save lives and protect property, are to be effective. The purpose of this study was to seek content and causal evidence for a developmental concept of Weather Information Processing that was consistent with Piagetian Cognitive Stages of Development. Three ordinal Content Stages Of Weather Information Processing (phenomena, process and mechanism) and three ordinal Causal Explanation Stages Of Weather Information Processing (non-real, natural, and scientifically valid abstract ideas) were explored for their relationship with Piaget's Pre-Operational, Concrete and Formal Stages of Development. One hundred and fifty -five elementary and secondary school students from two school districts were administered a written Piagetian exam. Commonly available television weather programs were categorized, randomly assigned and viewed by 42 randomly selected students who were administered three Piagetian tasks. Students were clinically interviewed for the level of content information and causal explanations (reasoning). Results indicated that content information and causal reasoning of students to televised weather information is significantly related (p <.01) to age, and Piagetian Cognitive Stages of Development. Two Piagetian logic operations (seriation and correlation) were established as significantly different (p <.05) when related to age. These findings support a developmental concept of Weather Information Processing and have implications for teaching and presenting weather information to the public.
An integrated specification for the nexus of water pollution and economic growth in China: Panel cointegration, long-run causality and environmental Kuznets curve.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Wang, Yuan; Song, Xiaowei; Kubota, Jumpei; He, Yanmin; Tojo, Junji; Zhu, Xiaodong

2017-12-31

This paper concentrates on a Chinese context and makes efforts to develop an integrated process to explicitly elucidate the relationship between economic growth and water pollution discharge-chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge and ammonia nitrogen (NH 3 -N), using two unbalanced panel data sets covering the period separately from 1990 to 2014, and 2001 to 2014. In our present study, the panel unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality tests allowing for cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary, and heterogeneity are conducted to examine the causal effects of economic growth on COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Further, we simultaneously apply semi-parametric fixed effects estimation and parametric fixed effects estimation to investigate environmental Kuznets curve relationship for COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Our empirical results show a long-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge in China. Within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology framework, we find evidence in support of an inverted U-shaped curved link between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge. To the best of our knowledge, there have not been any efforts made in investigating the nexus of economic growth and water pollution in such an integrated manner. Therefore, this study takes a fresh look on this topic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance.

PubMed

Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

2017-01-01

Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning.
Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance

PubMed Central

Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

2017-01-01

Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning. PMID:28928679
Causal Connections between Mathematical Language and Mathematical Knowledge: A Dialogic Reading Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purpura, David J.; Napoli, Amy R.; Wehrspann, Elizabeth A.; Gold, Zachary S.

2017-01-01

The acquisition of early mathematical knowledge is critical for successful long-term academic development. Mathematical language is one of the strongest predictors of children's early mathematical success. Findings from previous studies have provided correlational evidence supporting the importance of mathematical language to the development of…
Marijuana Use among Students and Peers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffin, Brenda S.; Griffin, Charles T.

1978-01-01

A casual path model based on Sutherland's theory was developed and applied to student marijuana use as a specific delinquent act. Two types of differential association were suggested to explain the genesis of marijuana use for the individual. The data tended to lend support to the causal path model. (Author/LPG)
77 FR 40866 - Applications for New Awards; Innovative Approaches to Literacy Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-11

... supported by the methods that have been employed. The term includes, appropriate to the research being... observational methods that provide reliable data; (iv) making claims of causal relationships only in random...; and (vii) using research designs and methods appropriate to the research question posed...
Successful Phonological Awareness Instruction with Preschool Children: Lessons from the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Beth M.; Clancy-Menchetti, Jeanine; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2008-01-01

Phonological awareness is one of several key precursor skills to conventional literacy that develop during the preschool period. Significant amounts of research support the causal and predictive relation between phonological awareness and children's ease of learning to decode and spell. However, many preschool curricula and early childhood…
Toward an Etiology of Media Use Motivations: The Role of Temperament in Media Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sherry, John L.

2001-01-01

Shows that the biologically rooted individual difference behavior variable of temperament was consistent and moderately strong causal factor in forming television use motivations among undergraduate students. Finds distinct patterns of relationships between temperament and all television use gratifications supporting the uses and gratifications…
Network Mendelian randomization: using genetic variants as instrumental variables to investigate mediation in causal pathways

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Daniel, Rhian M; Butterworth, Adam S; Thompson, Simon G

2015-01-01

Background: Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants, assumed to be instrumental variables for a particular exposure, to estimate the causal effect of that exposure on an outcome. If the instrumental variable criteria are satisfied, the resulting estimator is consistent even in the presence of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. Methods: We extend the Mendelian randomization paradigm to investigate more complex networks of relationships between variables, in particular where some of the effect of an exposure on the outcome may operate through an intermediate variable (a mediator). If instrumental variables for the exposure and mediator are available, direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated, for example using either a regression-based method or structural equation models. The direction of effect between the exposure and a possible mediator can also be assessed. Methods are illustrated in an applied example considering causal relationships between body mass index, C-reactive protein and uric acid. Results: These estimators are consistent in the presence of unmeasured confounding if, in addition to the instrumental variable assumptions, the effects of both the exposure on the mediator and the mediator on the outcome are homogeneous across individuals and linear without interactions. Nevertheless, a simulation study demonstrates that even considerable heterogeneity in these effects does not lead to bias in the estimates. Conclusions: These methods can be used to estimate direct and indirect causal effects in a mediation setting, and have potential for the investigation of more complex networks between multiple interrelated exposures and disease outcomes. PMID:25150977
Paracetamol in therapeutic dosages and acute liver injury: causality assessment in a prospective case series

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Acute liver injury (ALI) induced by paracetamol overdose is a well known cause of emergency hospital admission and death. However, there is debate regarding the risk of ALI after therapeutic dosages of the drug. The aim is to describe the characteristics of patients admitted to hospital with jaundice who had previous exposure to therapeutic doses of paracetamol. An assessment of the causality role of paracetamol was performed in each case. Methods Based on the evaluation of prospectively gathered cases of ALI with detailed clinical information, thirty-two cases of ALI in non-alcoholic patients exposed to therapeutic doses of paracetamol were identified. Two authors assessed all drug exposures by using the CIOMS/RUCAM scale. Each case was classified into one of five categories based on the causality score for paracetamol. Results In four cases the role of paracetamol was judged to be unrelated, in two unlikely, and these were excluded from evaluation. In seven of the remaining 26 cases, the RUCAM score associated with paracetamol was higher than that associated with other concomitant medications. The estimated incidence of ALI related to the use of paracetamol in therapeutic dosages was 0.4 per million inhabitants older than 15 years of age and per year (99%CI, 0.2-0.8) and of 10 per million paracetamol users-year (95% CI 4.3-19.4). Conclusions Our results indicate that paracetamol in therapeutic dosages may be considered in the causality assessment in non-alcoholic patients with liver injury, even if the estimated incidence of ALI related to paracetamol appears to be low. PMID:21762481

Herbal Traditional Chinese Medicine and suspected liver injury: A prospective study

PubMed Central

Melchart, Dieter; Hager, Stefan; Albrecht, Sabine; Dai, Jingzhang; Weidenhammer, Wolfgang; Teschke, Rolf

2017-01-01

AIM To analyze liver tests before and following treatment with herbal Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) in order to evaluate the frequency of newly detected liver injury. METHODS Patients with normal values of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) as a diagnostic marker for ruling out pre-existing liver disease were enrolled in a prospective study of a safety program carried out at the First German Hospital of TCM from 1994 to 2015. All patients received herbal products, and their ALT values were reassessed 1-3 d prior to discharge. To verify or exclude causality for suspected TCM herbs, the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM) was used. RESULTS This report presents for the first time liver injury data derived from a prospective, hospital-based and large-scale study of 21470 patients who had no liver disease prior to treatment with herbal TCM. Among these, ALT ranged from 1 × to < 5 × upper limit normal (ULN) in 844 patients (3.93%) and suggested mild or moderate liver adaptive abnormalities. However, 26 patients (0.12%) experienced higher ALT values of ≥ 5 × ULN (300.0 ± 172.9 U/L, mean ± SD). Causality for TCM herbs was RUCAM-based probable in 8/26 patients, possible in 16/26, and excluded in 2/26 cases. Bupleuri radix and Scutellariae radix were the two TCM herbs most commonly implicated. CONCLUSION In 26 (0.12%) of 21470 patients treated with herbal TCM, liver injury with ALT values of ≥ 5 × ULN was found, which normalized shortly following treatment cessation, also substantiating causality. PMID:29085558
Overview of the Clinical Consult Case Review of Adverse Events Following Immunization: Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment Network (CISA) 2004-2009

PubMed Central

Williams, S Elizabeth; Klein, Nicola P; Halsey, Neal; Dekker, Cornelia L; Baxter, Roger P; Marchant, Colin D; LaRussa, Philip S; Sparks, Robert C; Tokars, Jerome I; Pahud, Barbara A; Aukes, Laurie; Jakob, Kathleen; Coronel, Silvia; Choi, Howard; Slade, Barbara A; Edwards, Kathryn M

2016-01-01

Background In 2004 the Clinical Consult Case Review (CCCR) working group was formed within the CDC-funded Clinical immunization Safety Assessment (CISA) Network to review individual cases of adverse events following immunizations (AEFI). Methods Cases were referred by practitioners, health departments, or CDC employees. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) searches and literature reviews for similar cases were performed prior to review. After CCCR discussion, AEFI were assessed for a causal relationship with vaccination and recommendations regarding future immunizations were relayed back to the referring physicians. In 2010, surveys were sent to referring physicians to determine the utility and effectiveness of the CCCR service. Results CISA investigators reviewed 76 cases during 68 conference calls between April 2004 and December 2009. Almost half of cases (35/76) were neurological in nature. Similar AEFI for the specific vaccines received were discovered for 63 cases through VAERS searches and for 38 cases through PubMed searches. Causality assessment using the modified WHO criteria resulted in classifying 3 cases as definitely related to vaccine administration, 12 as probably related, 16 as possibly related, 18 as unlikely related, 10 as unrelated, and 17 had insufficient information to assign causality. The physician satisfaction survey was returned by 30 (57.7%) of those surveyed and a majority of respondents (93.3%) felt that the CCCR service was useful. Conclusions The CCCR provides advice about AEFI to practitioners, assigns potential causality, and contributes to an improved understanding of adverse health events following immunizations. PMID:21801776
Negative control exposure studies in the presence of measurement error: implications for attempted effect estimate calibration

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Eleanor; Macdonald-Wallis, Corrie; Davey Smith, George

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Negative control exposure studies are increasingly being used in epidemiological studies to strengthen causal inference regarding an exposure-outcome association when unobserved confounding is thought to be present. Negative control exposure studies contrast the magnitude of association of the negative control, which has no causal effect on the outcome but is associated with the unmeasured confounders in the same way as the exposure, with the magnitude of the association of the exposure with the outcome. A markedly larger effect of the exposure on the outcome than the negative control on the outcome strengthens inference that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome. Methods We investigate the effect of measurement error in the exposure and negative control variables on the results obtained from a negative control exposure study. We do this in models with continuous and binary exposure and negative control variables using analysis of the bias of the estimated coefficients and Monte Carlo simulations. Results Our results show that measurement error in either the exposure or negative control variables can bias the estimated results from the negative control exposure study. Conclusions Measurement error is common in the variables used in epidemiological studies; these results show that negative control exposure studies cannot be used to precisely determine the size of the effect of the exposure variable, or adequately adjust for unobserved confounding; however, they can be used as part of a body of evidence to aid inference as to whether a causal effect of the exposure on the outcome is present. PMID:29088358
Low Arousing Positive Affect Broadens Visual Attention and Alters the Thought-Action Repertoire While Broadened Visual Attention Does Not

PubMed Central

Jäger, Daniel T.; Rüsseler, Jascha

2016-01-01

The Broaden-and-Build Theory states that positive emotions broaden cognition and therefore build personal resources. However, missing theoretical precision regarding the interaction of the cognitive processes involved offers a variety of possible explanations for the mechanisms of broadening and building. In Experiment 1 we tested the causality assumption which states that positive emotions first broaden visual attention which in turn leads to broadened cognition. We examined the effects of a broadened, narrowed or neutral attentional scope of 72 subjects (30 men) on their momentary thought-action repertoire. Results showed that there were no significant differences between groups regarding the breadth or the content of the thought-action repertoire. In Experiment 2 we studied the non-causality hypothesis which assumes a non-causal relationship between cognitive processes. We did so by investigating the effects of negative, neutral, and positive affect on the visual attentional scope of 85 subjects (41 men) in Experiment 2a, as well as on the thought-action repertoire of 85 participants (42 men) in Experiment 2b. Results revealed an attentional broadening effect in Experiment 2a but no differences between groups concerning the breadth of the thought-action repertoire in Experiment 2b. However, a theory driven content analysis showed that positive affect promoted social actions. Thus, our results favor the non-causality assumption. Moreover, results indicate that positive emotions do not target personal resources in general but rather resources associated with social behavior. In conclusion, we argue that the Broaden-and-Build Theory should be refined. PMID:27826276
Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Samuel G. B.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

2015-01-01

Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge--an interconnected causal "network," where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms--causal "islands"--such that events in different…
Toxic-Metabolic Risk Factors in Pediatric Pancreatitis: Recommendations for Diagnosis, Management and Future Research

PubMed Central

Husain, Sohail Z.; Morinville, Veronique; Pohl, John; Abu-El-Haija, Maisam; Bellin, Melena D.; Freedman, Steve; Hegyi, Peter; Heyman, Melvin B; Himes, Ryan; Ooi, Chee Y.; Schwarzenberg, Sarah Jane; Usatin, Danielle; Uc, Aliye

2016-01-01

Objectives Pancreatitis in children can result from metabolic and toxic risk factors, but the evidence linking these factors is sparse. We review the evidence for association or causality of these risk factors in pancreatitis, discuss management strategies and their rationale. Methods We conducted a review of the pediatric pancreatitis literature with respect to the following risk factors: (a) hyperlipidemia, (b) hypercalcemia, (c) chronic renal failure, (d) smoking exposure, (e) alcohol, and (f) medications. Areas of additional research were identified. Results Hypertriglyceridemia of 1000 mg/dl or greater poses an absolute risk for pancreatitis; persistent elevations of calcium are predisposing. Further research is necessary to determine whether end stage renal disease leads to increased pancreatitis in children similar to adults. It is unknown whether cigarette smoking exposure, which clearly increases risk in adults, also increases risk in children. The role of alcohol in pediatric pancreatitis, whether direct or modifying, needs to be elucidated. The evidence supporting most cases of medication-induced pancreatitis is poor. Drug structure, improper handling of drug by host, and by-stander status may be implicated. Other pancreatitis risk factors must be sought in all cases. Conclusions The quality of evidence supporting causative role of various toxic and metabolic factors in pediatric pancreatitis is variable. Careful phenotyping is essential, including search for other etiologic risk factors. Directed therapy includes correction/ removal of any agent identified, and general supportive measures. Further research is necessary to improve our understanding of these pancreatitis risk factors in children. PMID:26594832
Type 2 Diabetes, Diabetes Genetic Score and Risk of Decreased Renal Function and Albuminuria: A Mendelian Randomization Study

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Bi, Yufang; Huang, Ya; Xie, Lan; Hao, Mingli; Zhao, Zhiyun; Xu, Yu; Lu, Jieli; Chen, Yuhong; Sun, Yimin; Qi, Lu; Wang, Weiqing; Ning, Guang

2016-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a risk factor for dysregulation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria. However, whether the association is causal remains unestablished. Research Design and Methods We performed a Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis in 11,502 participants aged 40 and above, from a well-defined community in Shanghai during 2011–2013, to explore the causal association between T2D and decreased estimated GFR (eGFR) and increased urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR). We genotyped 34 established T2D common variants in East Asians, and created a T2D-genetic risk score (GRS). We defined decreased eGFR as eGFR < 90 ml/min/1.73 m2 and increased uACR as uACR ≥ 30 mg/g. We used the T2D_GRS as the instrumental variable (IV) to quantify the causal effect of T2D on decreased eGFR and increased uACR. Results Each 1-standard deviation (SD, 3.90 points) increment in T2D_GRS was associated with decreased eGFR: odds ratio (OR) = 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.30). In the MR analysis, we demonstrated a causal relationship between genetically determined T2D and decreased eGFR (OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.88, P = 0.0003). When grouping the genetic loci according to their relations with either insulin secretion (IS) or insulin resistance (IR), we found both IS_GRS and IR_GRS were significantly related to decreased eGFR (both P < 0.02). In addition, T2D_GRS and IS_GRS were significantly associated with Log-uACR (both P = 0.04). Conclusion Our results provide novel evidence for a causal association between T2D and decreased eGFR by using MR approach in a Chinese population. PMID:27211558
A pilot randomised controlled trial to assess the utility of an e‐learning package that trains users in adverse drug reaction causality

PubMed Central

Kirkham, Jamie J.; Bellis, Jennifer R.; Peak, Matthew; Smyth, Rosalind L.; Williamson, Paula R.; Pirmohamed, Munir

2015-01-01

Abstract Objectives Causality assessment of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) by healthcare professionals is often informal which can lead to inconsistencies in practice. The Liverpool Causality Assessment Tool (LCAT) offers a systematic approach. An interactive, web‐based, e‐learning package, the Liverpool ADR Causality Assessment e‐learning Package (LACAeP), was designed to improve causality assessment using the LCAT. This study aimed to (1) get feedback on usability and usefulness on the LACAeP, identify areas for improvement and development, and generate data on effect size to inform a larger scale study; and (2) test the usability and usefulness of the LCAT. Methods A pilot, single‐blind, parallel‐group, randomised controlled trial hosted by the University of Liverpool was undertaken. Participants were paediatric medical trainees at specialty training level 1+ within the Mersey and North‐West England Deaneries. Participants were randomised (1 : 1) access to the LACAeP or no training. The primary efficacy outcome was score by correct classification, predefined by a multidisciplinary panel of experts. Following participation, feedback on both the LCAT and the LACAeP was obtained, via a built in survey, from participants. Key findings Of 57 randomised, 35 completed the study. Feedback was mainly positive although areas for improvement were identified. Seventy‐four per cent of participants found the LCAT easy to use and 78% found the LACAeP training useful. Sixty‐one per cent would be unlikely to recommend the training. Scores ranged from 4 to 13 out of 20. The LACAeP increased scores by 1.3, but this was not significant. Conclusions Improving the LACAeP before testing it in an appropriately powered trial, informed by the differences observed, is required. Rigorous evaluation will enable a quality resource that will be of value in healthcare professional training. PMID:26032626
The causal effect of education on HIV stigma in Uganda: evidence from a natural experiment

PubMed Central

Tsai, Alexander C.; Venkataramani, Atheendar S.

2015-01-01

Rationale HIV is highly stigmatized in sub-Saharan Africa. This is an important public health problem because HIV stigma has many adverse effects that threaten to undermine efforts to control the HIV epidemic. Objective The implementation of a universal primary education policy in Uganda in 1997 provided us with a natural experiment to test the hypothesis that education is causally related to HIV stigma. Methods For this analysis, we pooled publicly available, population-based data from the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey and the 2011 Uganda AIDS Indicator Survey. The primary outcomes of interest were negative attitudes toward persons with HIV, elicited using four questions about anticipated stigma and social distance. Results Standard least squares estimates suggested a statistically significant, negative association between years of schooling and HIV stigma (each P<0.001, with t-statistics ranging from 4.9 to 14.7). We then used a natural experiment design, exploiting differences in birth cohort exposure to universal primary education as an instrumental variable. Participants who were <13 years old at the time of the policy change had 1.36 additional years of schooling compared to those who were ≥13 years old. Adjusting for linear age trends before and after the discontinuity, two-stage least squares estimates suggested no statistically significant causal effect of education on HIV stigma (P-values ranged from 0.21 to 0.69). Three of the four estimated regression coefficients were positive, and in all cases the lower confidence limits convincingly excluded the possibility of large negative effect sizes. These instrumental variables estimates have a causal interpretation and were not overturned by several robustness checks. Conclusion We conclude that, for young adults in Uganda, additional years of education in the formal schooling system driven by a universal primary school intervention have not had a causal effect on reducing negative attitudes toward persons with HIV. PMID:26282707
Differences between Drug-Induced and Contrast Media-Induced Adverse Reactions Based on Spontaneously Reported Adverse Drug Reactions

PubMed Central

Suh, JinUk; Yang, MyungSuk; Kang, WonKu; Kim, EunYoung

2015-01-01

Objective We analyzed differences between spontaneously reported drug-induced (not including contrast media) and contrast media-induced adverse reactions. Methods Adverse drug reactions reported by an in-hospital pharmacovigilance center (St. Mary’s teaching hospital, Daejeon, Korea) from 2010–2012 were classified as drug-induced or contrast media-induced. Clinical patterns, frequency, causality, severity, Schumock and Thornton’s preventability, and type A/B reactions were recorded. The trends among causality tools measuring drug and contrast-induced adverse reactions were analyzed. Results Of 1,335 reports, 636 drug-induced and contrast media-induced adverse reactions were identified. The prevalence of spontaneously reported adverse drug reaction-related admissions revealed a suspected adverse drug reaction-reporting rate of 20.9/100,000 (inpatient, 0.021%) and 3.9/100,000 (outpatients, 0.004%). The most common adverse drug reaction-associated drug classes included nervous system agents and anti-infectives. Dermatological and gastrointestinal adverse drug reactions were most frequently and similarly reported between drug and contrast media-induced adverse reactions. Compared to contrast media-induced adverse reactions, drug-induced adverse reactions were milder, more likely to be preventable (9.8% vs. 1.1%, p < 0.001), and more likely to be type A reactions (73.5% vs. 18.8%, p < 0.001). Females were over-represented among drug-induced adverse reactions (68.1%, p < 0.001) but not among contrast media-induced adverse reactions (56.6%, p = 0.066). Causality patterns differed between the two adverse reaction classes. The World Health Organization–Uppsala Monitoring Centre causality evaluation and Naranjo algorithm results significantly differed from those of the Korean algorithm version II (p < 0.001). Conclusions We found differences in sex, preventability, severity, and type A/B reactions between spontaneously reported drug and contrast media-induced adverse reactions. The World Health Organization–Uppsala Monitoring Centre and Naranjo algorithm causality evaluation afforded similar results. PMID:26544039
Retrieving hydrological connectivity from empirical causality in karst systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delforge, Damien; Vanclooster, Marnik; Van Camp, Michel; Poulain, Amaël; Watlet, Arnaud; Hallet, Vincent; Kaufmann, Olivier; Francis, Olivier

2017-04-01

Because of their complexity, karst systems exhibit nonlinear dynamics. Moreover, if one attempts to model a karst, the hidden behavior complicates the choice of the most suitable model. Therefore, both intense investigation methods and nonlinear data analysis are needed to reveal the underlying hydrological connectivity as a prior for a consistent physically based modelling approach. Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a recent method, promises to identify causal relationships between time series belonging to the same dynamical systems. The method is based on phase space reconstruction and is suitable for nonlinear dynamics. As an empirical causation detection method, it could be used to highlight the hidden complexity of a karst system by revealing its inner hydrological and dynamical connectivity. Hence, if one can link causal relationships to physical processes, the method should show great potential to support physically based model structure selection. We present the results of numerical experiments using karst model blocks combined in different structures to generate time series from actual rainfall series. CCM is applied between the time series to investigate if the empirical causation detection is consistent with the hydrological connectivity suggested by the karst model.
Health and respirable particulate (PM10) air pollution: a causal or statistical association?

PubMed Central

Gamble, J F; Lewis, R J

1996-01-01

Numerous studies have reported weak but statistically significant acute health effects of particulate air pollution. The associations are observed at levels below the current U.S. standard of 150 micrograms/m3 (24 hr). Health effects include acute increased mortality from cardiopulmonary conditions and acute morbidity such as hospital admissions for related diseases. We reviewed recent epidemiology studies to evaluate whether criteria for causality are met, and we conclude that they are not. The weak associations are as likely to be due to confounding by weather, copollutants, or exposure misclassification as by ambient particulate matter (PM). The results from the same metropolitan areas are inconsistent, and PM explains such a small amount of the variability in mortality/morbidity that the association has little practical significance. Finally, experimental chamber studies of susceptible individuals exposed to PM concentrations well above 150 micrograms/m3 provide no evidence to support the morbidity/mortality findings. None of the criteria for establishing causality of the PM/mortality hypothesis are clearly met at ambient concentrations common in many U.S. cities. Images p838-a Figure 1. PMID:8875158
Which causal structures might support a quantum-classical gap?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pienaar, Jacques

2017-04-01

A causal scenario is a graph that describes the cause and effect relationships between all relevant variables in an experiment. A scenario is deemed ‘not interesting’ if there is no device-independent way to distinguish the predictions of classical physics from any generalised probabilistic theory (including quantum mechanics). Conversely, an interesting scenario is one in which there exists a gap between the predictions of different operational probabilistic theories, as occurs for example in Bell-type experiments. Henson, Lal and Pusey (HLP) recently proposed a sufficient condition for a causal scenario to not be interesting. In this paper we supplement their analysis with some new techniques and results. We first show that existing graphical techniques due to Evans can be used to confirm by inspection that many graphs are interesting without having to explicitly search for inequality violations. For three exceptional cases—the graphs numbered \\#15,16,20 in HLP—we show that there exist non-Shannon type entropic inequalities that imply these graphs are interesting. In doing so, we find that existing methods of entropic inequalities can be greatly enhanced by conditioning on the specific values of certain variables.
Does sufficient evidence exist to support a causal association between vitamin D status and cardiovascular disease risk? An assessment using Hill's criteria for causality.

PubMed

Weyland, Patricia G; Grant, William B; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-09-02

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor.
Brain Networks Shaping Religious Belief

PubMed Central

Deshpande, Gopikrishna; Krueger, Frank; Thornburg, Matthew P.; Grafman, Jordan Henry

2014-01-01

Abstract We previously demonstrated with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) that religious belief depends upon three cognitive dimensions, which can be mapped to specific brain regions. In the present study, we considered these co-activated regions as nodes of three networks each one corresponding to a particular dimension, corresponding to each dimension and examined the causal flow within and between these networks to address two important hypotheses that remained untested in our previous work. First, we hypothesized that regions involved in theory of mind (ToM) are located upstream the causal flow and drive non-ToM regions, in line with theories attributing religion to the evolution of ToM. Second, we hypothesized that differences in directional connectivity are associated with differences in religiosity. To test these hypotheses, we performed a multivariate Granger causality-based directional connectivity analysis of fMRI data to demonstrate the causal flow within religious belief-related networks. Our results supported both hypotheses. Religious subjects preferentially activated a pathway from inferolateral to dorsomedial frontal cortex to monitor the intent and involvement of supernatural agents (SAs; intent-related ToM). Perception of SAs engaged pathways involved in fear regulation and affective ToM. Religious beliefs are founded both on propositional statements for doctrine, but also on episodic memory and imagery. Beliefs based on doctrine engaged a pathway from Broca's to Wernicke's language areas. Beliefs related to everyday life experiences engaged pathways involved in imagery. Beliefs implying less involved SAs and evoking imagery activated a pathway from right lateral temporal to occipital regions. This pathway was more active in non-religious compared to religious subjects, suggesting greater difficulty and procedural demands for imagining and processing the intent of SAs. Insights gained by Granger connectivity analysis inform us about the causal binding of individual regions activated during religious belief processing. PMID:24279687
Brain networks shaping religious belief.

PubMed

Kapogiannis, Dimitrios; Deshpande, Gopikrishna; Krueger, Frank; Thornburg, Matthew P; Grafman, Jordan Henry

2014-02-01

We previously demonstrated with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) that religious belief depends upon three cognitive dimensions, which can be mapped to specific brain regions. In the present study, we considered these co-activated regions as nodes of three networks each one corresponding to a particular dimension, corresponding to each dimension and examined the causal flow within and between these networks to address two important hypotheses that remained untested in our previous work. First, we hypothesized that regions involved in theory of mind (ToM) are located upstream the causal flow and drive non-ToM regions, in line with theories attributing religion to the evolution of ToM. Second, we hypothesized that differences in directional connectivity are associated with differences in religiosity. To test these hypotheses, we performed a multivariate Granger causality-based directional connectivity analysis of fMRI data to demonstrate the causal flow within religious belief-related networks. Our results supported both hypotheses. Religious subjects preferentially activated a pathway from inferolateral to dorsomedial frontal cortex to monitor the intent and involvement of supernatural agents (SAs; intent-related ToM). Perception of SAs engaged pathways involved in fear regulation and affective ToM. Religious beliefs are founded both on propositional statements for doctrine, but also on episodic memory and imagery. Beliefs based on doctrine engaged a pathway from Broca's to Wernicke's language areas. Beliefs related to everyday life experiences engaged pathways involved in imagery. Beliefs implying less involved SAs and evoking imagery activated a pathway from right lateral temporal to occipital regions. This pathway was more active in non-religious compared to religious subjects, suggesting greater difficulty and procedural demands for imagining and processing the intent of SAs. Insights gained by Granger connectivity analysis inform us about the causal binding of individual regions activated during religious belief processing.
The causal role of smoking on the risk of hip or knee replacement due to primary osteoarthritis: a Mendelian randomisation analysis of the HUNT study.

PubMed

Johnsen, M B; Vie, G Å; Winsvold, B S; Bjørngaard, J H; Åsvold, B O; Gabrielsen, M E; Pedersen, L M; Hellevik, A I; Langhammer, A; Furnes, O; Flugsrud, G B; Skorpen, F; Romundstad, P R; Storheim, K; Nordsletten, L; Zwart, J A

2017-06-01

Smoking has been associated with a reduced risk of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) and subsequent joint replacement. The aim of the present study was to assess whether the observed association is likely to be causal. 55,745 participants of a population-based cohort were genotyped for the rs1051730 C > T single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), a proxy for smoking quantity among smokers. A Mendelian randomization analysis was performed using rs1051730 as an instrument to evaluate the causal role of smoking on the risk of hip or knee replacement (combined as total joint replacement (TJR)). Association between rs1051730 T alleles and TJR was estimated by hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All analyses were adjusted for age and sex. Smoking quantity (no. of cigarettes) was inversely associated with TJR (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.97-0.98). In the Mendelian randomization analysis, rs1051730 T alleles were associated with reduced risk of TJR among current smokers (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.98, per T allele), however we found no evidence of association among former (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.88-1.07) and never smokers (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.89-1.06). Neither adjusting for body mass index (BMI), cardiovascular disease (CVD) nor accounting for the competing risk of mortality substantially changed the results. This study suggests that smoking may be causally associated with the reduced risk of TJR. Our findings add support to the inverse association found in previous observational studies. More research is needed to further elucidate the underlying mechanisms of this causal association. Copyright © 2016 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bilirubin as a potential causal factor in type 2 diabetes risk: a Mendelian randomization study

PubMed Central

Abbasi, Ali; Deetman, Petronella E.; Corpeleijn, Eva; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Gans, Rijk O.B.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Stolk, Ronald P.; Navis, Gerjan; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z.; Bakker, Stephan J.L.

2014-01-01

Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the nature of the relationship remains unknown. We performed Mendelian randomization in a prospective cohort of 3,381 participants free of diabetes at baseline (aged 28-75 years; women, 52.6%). We used rs6742078 located in UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus as instrumental variable (IV) to study a potential causal effect of serum total bilirubin on T2D risk. T2D developed in a total of 210 (6.2%) participants during a median follow-up of 7.8 years. In adjusted analyses, rs6742078, which explained 19.5% of bilirubin variation, was strongly associated with total bilirubin (a 0.68-SD increase in bilirubin levels per T allele; P<1×10−122) and was also associated with T2D risk (OR 0.69 [95%CI, 0.54-0.90]; P=0.006). Per 1-SD increase in log-transformed bilirubin levels, we observed a 25% (OR 0.75 [95%CI, 0.62-0.92]; P=0.004) lower risk of T2D. In Mendelian randomization analysis, the causal risk reduction for T2D was estimated to be 42% (causal ORIVestimation per 1-SD increase in log-transformed bilirubin 0.58 [95%CI, 0.39-0.84]; P=0.005), which was comparable to the observational estimate (Durbin-Wu-Hausman chi-square test Pfor difference =0.19). These novel results provide evidence that elevated bilirubin is causally associated with risk of T2D and support its role as a protective determinant. PMID:25368098
Modelling possible causality in the associations between unemployment, cannabis use, and alcohol misuse.

PubMed

Boden, Joseph M; Lee, Jungeun Olivia; Horwood, L John; Grest, Carolina Villamil; McLeod, Geraldine F H

2017-02-01

There has been considerable interest in the extent to which substance use and unemployment may be related, particularly the causal pathways that may be involved in these associations. It has been argued that these associations may reflect social causation, in which unemployment influences substance use, or that they may reflect social selection, in which substance use increases the risk of becoming and remaining unemployed. The present study sought to test these competing explanations. Data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study, featuring a longitudinal birth cohort, were used to model the associations between unemployment and both cannabis and alcohol. Data on patterns of unemployment, involvement with cannabis, and symptoms of alcohol use disorder were examined from ages 18-35 years. The associations between unemployment and both cannabis dependence and alcohol use disorder (AUD) were modelled using conditional fixed-effects regression models, augmented by time-dynamic covariate factors. The analyses showed evidence of possible reciprocal causal processes in the association between unemployment and cannabis dependence, in which unemployment of at least three months' duration significantly (p < 0.0001) increased the risk of cannabis dependence, and cannabis dependence significantly (p < 0.0001) increased the risk of being unemployed. Similar evidence was found for the associations between unemployment and AUD, although these associations were smaller in magnitude. The present findings support both social causation and social selection arguments, by indicating that unemployment plays a causal role in substance misuse, and that it is also likely that a reverse causal process whereby substance misuse increases the risk of unemployment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Electrical Stimulation in Hippocampus and Entorhinal Cortex Impairs Spatial and Temporal Memory.

PubMed

Goyal, Abhinav; Miller, Jonathan; Watrous, Andrew J; Lee, Sang Ah; Coffey, Tom; Sperling, Michael R; Sharan, Ashwini; Worrell, Gregory; Berry, Brent; Lega, Bradley; Jobst, Barbara C; Davis, Kathryn A; Inman, Cory; Sheth, Sameer A; Wanda, Paul A; Ezzyat, Youssef; Das, Sandhitsu R; Stein, Joel; Gorniak, Richard; Jacobs, Joshua

2018-05-09

The medial temporal lobe (MTL) is widely implicated in supporting episodic memory and navigation, but its precise functional role in organizing memory across time and space remains elusive. Here we examine the specific cognitive processes implemented by MTL structures (hippocampus and entorhinal cortex) to organize memory by using electrical brain stimulation, leveraging its ability to establish causal links between brain regions and features of behavior. We studied neurosurgical patients of both sexes who performed spatial-navigation and verbal-episodic memory tasks while brain stimulation was applied in various regions during learning. During the verbal memory task, stimulation in the MTL disrupted the temporal organization of encoded memories such that items learned with stimulation tended to be recalled in a more randomized order. During the spatial task, MTL stimulation impaired subjects' abilities to remember items located far away from boundaries. These stimulation effects were specific to the MTL. Our findings thus provide the first causal demonstration in humans of the specific memory processes that are performed by the MTL to encode when and where events occurred. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Numerous studies have implicated the medial temporal lobe (MTL) in encoding spatial and temporal memories, but they have not been able to causally demonstrate the nature of the cognitive processes by which this occurs in real-time. Electrical brain stimulation is able to demonstrate causal links between a brain region and a given function with high temporal precision. By examining behavior in a memory task as subjects received MTL stimulation, we provide the first causal evidence demonstrating the role of the MTL in organizing the spatial and temporal aspects of episodic memory. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/384471-11$15.00/0.

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.