Defense AT&L. May-June 2010

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

a storytelling narrative of how the risk was mitigated and what worked or did not work. A knowledge-based risk is also a means of transferring...devel- oping a cadre of trained facilitators to assist teams in using Web-based deci- sion-support technology to support team brain - storming...and use “contextualization” (a.k.a. storytelling ) as an alternative method to analysis? Storytelling Instead of Analysis There have been some

Tensions in perspectives on suicide prevention between men who have attempted suicide and their support networks: Secondary analysis of qualitative data.

PubMed

Fogarty, Andrea S; Spurrier, Michael; Player, Michael J; Wilhelm, Kay; Whittle, Erin L; Shand, Fiona; Christensen, Helen; Proudfoot, Judith

2018-02-01

Men generally have higher rates of suicide, despite fewer overt indicators of risk. Differences in presentation and response suggest a need to better understand why suicide prevention is less effective for men. To explore the views of at-risk men, friends and family about the tensions inherent in suicide prevention and to consider how prevention may be improved. Secondary analysis of qualitative interview and focus group data, using thematic analysis techniques, alongside bracketing, construction and contextualisation. A total of 35 men who had recently made a suicide attempt participated in interviews, and 47 family and friends of men who had made a suicide attempt took part in focus groups. Participants recounted their experiences with men's suicide attempts and associated interventions, and suggested ways in which suicide prevention may be improved. Five tensions in perspectives emerged between men and their support networks, which complicated effective management of suicide risk: (i) respecting privacy vs monitoring risk, (ii) differentiating normal vs risky behaviour changes, (iii) familiarity vs anonymity in personal information disclosure, (iv) maintaining autonomy vs imposing constraints to limit risk, and (v) perceived need for vs failures of external support services. Tension between the different perspectives increased systemic stress, compounding problems and risk, thereby decreasing the effectiveness of detection of and interventions for men at risk of suicide. Suggested solutions included improving risk communication, reducing reliance on single source supports and increasing intervention flexibility in response to individual needs. © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

2010-01-01

The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

On "black swans" and "perfect storms": risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth

2012-11-01

Two images, "black swans" and "perfect storms," have struck the public's imagination and are used--at times indiscriminately--to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure--Bayesian probability--and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near-misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow "prediction" of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Language of Social Support in Social Media and its Effect on Suicidal Ideation Risk

PubMed Central

De Choudhury, Munmun; Kıcıman, Emre

2017-01-01

Online social support is known to play a significant role in mental well-being. However, current research is limited in its ability to quantify this link. Challenges exist due to the paucity of longitudinal, pre- and post mental illness risk data, and reliable methods that can examine causality between past availability of support and future risk. In this paper, we propose a method to measure how the language of comments in Reddit mental health communities influences risk to suicidal ideation in the future. Incorporating human assessments in a stratified propensity score analysis based framework, we identify comparable subpopulations of individuals and measure the effect of online social support language. We interpret these linguistic cues with an established theoretical model of social support, and find that esteem and network support play a more prominent role in reducing forthcoming risk. We discuss the implications of our work for designing tools that can improve support provisions in online communities. PMID:28840079

The Language of Social Support in Social Media and its Effect on Suicidal Ideation Risk.

PubMed

De Choudhury, Munmun; Kıcıman, Emre

2017-05-01

Online social support is known to play a significant role in mental well-being. However, current research is limited in its ability to quantify this link. Challenges exist due to the paucity of longitudinal, pre- and post mental illness risk data, and reliable methods that can examine causality between past availability of support and future risk. In this paper, we propose a method to measure how the language of comments in Reddit mental health communities influences risk to suicidal ideation in the future. Incorporating human assessments in a stratified propensity score analysis based framework, we identify comparable subpopulations of individuals and measure the effect of online social support language. We interpret these linguistic cues with an established theoretical model of social support, and find that esteem and network support play a more prominent role in reducing forthcoming risk. We discuss the implications of our work for designing tools that can improve support provisions in online communities.

Using Enterprise Architecture for Analysis of a Complex Adaptive Organization's Risk Inducing Characteristics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salguero, Laura Marie; Huff, Johnathon; Matta, Anthony R.

Sandia National Laboratories is an organization with a wide range of research and development activities that include nuclear, explosives, and chemical hazards. In addition, Sandia has over 2000 labs and over 40 major test facilities, such as the Thermal Test Complex, the Lightning Test Facility, and the Rocket Sled Track. In order to support safe operations, Sandia has a diverse Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) organization that provides expertise to support engineers and scientists in performing work safely. With such a diverse organization to support, the ES&H program continuously seeks opportunities to improve the services provided for Sandia by usingmore » various methods as part of their risk management strategy. One of the methods being investigated is using enterprise architecture analysis to mitigate risk inducing characteristics such as normalization of deviance, organizational drift, and problems in information flow. This paper is a case study for how a Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF) model of the ES&H enterprise, including information technology applications, can be analyzed to understand the level of risk associated with the risk inducing characteristics discussed above. While the analysis is not complete, we provide proposed analysis methods that will be used for future research as the project progresses.« less

Operational support to collision avoidance activities by ESA's space debris office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, V.; Flohrer, T.; Krag, H.; Merz, K.; Lemmens, S.; Bastida Virgili, B.; Funke, Q.

2016-09-01

The European Space Agency's (ESA) Space Debris Office provides a service to support operational collision avoidance activities. This support currently covers ESA's missions Cryosat-2, Sentinel-1A and -2A, the constellation of Swarm-A/B/C in low-Earth orbit (LEO), as well as missions of third-party customers. In this work, we describe the current collision avoidance process for ESA and third-party missions in LEO. We give an overview on the upgrades developed and implemented since the advent of conjunction summary messages (CSM)/conjunction data messages (CDM), addressing conjunction event detection, collision risk assessment, orbit determination, orbit and covariance propagation, process control, and data handling. We pay special attention to the effect of warning thresholds on the risk reduction and manoeuvre rates, as they are established through risk mitigation and analysis tools, such as ESA's Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis (DRAMA) software suite. To handle the large number of CDMs and the associated risk analyses, a database-centric approach has been developed. All CDMs and risk analysis results are stored in a database. In this way, a temporary local "mini-catalogue" of objects close to our target spacecraft is obtained, which can be used, e.g., for manoeuvre screening and to update the risk analysis whenever a new ephemeris becomes available from the flight dynamics team. The database is also used as the backbone for a Web-based tool, which consists of the visualization component and a collaboration tool that facilitates the status monitoring and task allocation within the support team as well as communication with the control team. The visualization component further supports the information sharing by displaying target and chaser motion over time along with the involved uncertainties. The Web-based solution optimally meets the needs for a concise and easy-to-use way to obtain a situation picture in a very short time, and the support for third-party missions not operated from the European Space Operations Centre (ESOC). Finally, we provide statistics on the identified conjunction events, taking into account the known significant changes in the LEO orbital environment and share ESA's experience along with recent examples.

Screening of Nutritional Risk and Nutritional Support in General Surgery Patients: A Survey from Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Jia, Zhen-Yi; Yang, Jun; Tong, Da-Nian; Peng, Jia-Yuan; Zhang, Zhong-Wei; Liu, Wei-Jie; Xia, Yang; Qin, Huan-long

2015-01-01

To determine the prevalence of nutritional risk in surgical departments and to evaluate the impact of nutritional support on clinical outcomes. The nutritional risk in different surgical diseases and the different way of nutritional support on clinical outcomes in patients at nutritional risk remain unclear. Hospitalized patients from general surgical departments were screened using the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 questionnaire on admission. Data were collected on nutritional risk, complications, and length of stay (LOS). Overall, 5034 patients were recruited; the overall prevalence of nutritional risk on admission were 19.2%. The highest prevalence was found among patients with gastric cancer. At-risk patients had more complications and longer LOS than nonrisk patients. Of the at-risk patients, the complication rate was significantly lower and LOS was significantly shorter in the nutritional-support group than in the no-support group (20.9 versus 30.0%, P < 0.05). Subgroup analysis showed reduced complication rates and LOS only in patients with gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, and hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) cancer. Significantly lower complication rates relative to nonsupported patients were found among patients who received enteral nutrition or who received support for 5 to 7 days, or daily support entailing 16 to 25 kcal/kg of nonprotein energy. Different surgical diseases have different levels of nutritional risk. The provision of nutritional support was associated with a lower complication rate and a shorter LOS for gastric, colorectal, and HPB cancer patients at nutritional risk. The improper use of nutritional support may not improve outcomes for at-risk patients. PMID:26011204

Cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis of nutritional support for preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk patients: implement now, research later.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

2015-04-01

Pressure ulcers are a major cause of mortality, morbidity, and increased healthcare cost. Nutritional support may reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers in hospitalised patients who are at risk of pressure ulcer and malnutrition. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients, and to assess the value of further research to inform the decision to implement this intervention using value of information analysis (VOI). The analysis was from the perspective of Queensland Health, Australia using a decision model with evidence derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Resources were valued using 2014 prices and the time horizon of the analysis was one year. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate net monetary benefits (NB) and to calculate VOI measures. Compared with standard hospital diet, nutritional support was cost saving at AU$425 per patient, and more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. At a willingness-to-pay of AU$50,000 per QALY, the incremental NB was AU$675 per patient, with a probability of 87 % that nutritional support is cost-effective. The expected value of perfect information was AU$5 million and the expected value of perfect parameter information was highest for the relative risk of developing a pressure ulcer at AU$2.5 million. For a future trial investigating the relative effectiveness of the interventions, the expected net benefit of research would be maximised at AU$100,000 with 1,200 patients in each arm if nutritional support was perfectly implemented. The opportunity cost of withholding the decision to implement the intervention until the results of the future study are available would be AU$14 million. Nutritional support is cost-effective in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients compared with standard diet. Future research to reduce decision uncertainty is worthwhile; however, given the opportunity losses associated with delaying the implementation, "implement and research" is the approach recommended for this intervention.

Family support as a mediator of change in sexual risk-taking attitudes among orphaned adolescents in rural Uganda.

PubMed

Ismayilova, Leyla; Ssewamala, Fred M; Karimli, Leyla

2012-03-01

Prior studies demonstrated the effect of family-based economic empowerment intervention Suubi on reducing attitudes approving sexual risk-taking behavior among orphaned adolescents in Uganda. To understand mechanisms of change, the article examines the effect of Suubi intervention on family support variables and their role in mediating the change in adolescents' attitudes toward sexual risk-taking. The Suubi study used a cluster-randomized experimental design with three waves, and included 283 orphaned adolescents from 15 primary schools in Rakai, Uganda. First, using mixed-effects models, the study tested for the effect of intervention on family support variables. Second, using mediation analysis, the study examined whether the change in sexual risk-taking attitudes was mediated by the change in family support. Compared with adolescents from the control group, at wave 2, adolescents in the treatment group reported higher levels of perceived support from caregivers, were more willing to talk to caregivers about their problems, and felt more comfortable talking about sexual risk behaviors with their caregivers. Mediation analysis demonstrated that the improvement in perceived support from caregivers at wave 2 accounted for 16.8% of the reduction in adolescents' attitudes toward sexual risk-taking behavior at wave 3 (z = -2.21, p < .05). A family-based economic empowerment intervention Suubi may have the potential to increase family support to orphaned adolescents. Interventions aimed at strengthening existing social networks and improving connectedness with surviving family members may be critical in preventing sexual risk-taking behavior among orphaned adolescents in Uganda, which is characterized by low resources. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factor Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB)

DOE Data Explorer

Teresa E. Jordan

2015-09-30

This submission contains information used to compute the risk factors for the GPFA-AB project (DE-EE0006726). The risk factors are natural reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the product, sum, and minimum of the four risk factors. The files are divided into images, rasters, shapefiles, and supporting information. The image files show what the raster and shapefiles should look like. The raster files contain the input risk factors, calculation of the scaled risk factors, and calculation of the combined risk factors. The shapefiles include definition of the fairways, definition of the US Census Places, the center of the raster cells, and locations of industries. Supporting information contains details of the calculations or processing used in generating the files. An image of the raster will have the same name except *.png as the file ending instead of *.tif. Images with “fairways” or “industries” added to the name are composed of a raster with the relevant shapefile added. The file About_GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload.pdf contains information the citation, special use considerations, authorship, etc. More details on each file are given in the spreadsheet “list_of_contents.csv” in the folder “SupportingInfo”. Code used to calculate values is available at https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder “combining_metrics”.

Social Support Networks and HIV/STI Risk Behaviors Among Latino Immigrants in a New Receiving Environment.

PubMed

Althoff, Meghan D; Theall, Katherine; Schmidt, Norine; Hembling, John; Gebrekristos, Hirut T; Thompson, Michelle M; Muth, Stephen Q; Friedman, Samuel R; Kissinger, Patricia

2017-12-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) describe the quantity and quality of social support networks of Latino immigrants living in a new receiving environment, and (2) determine the role such networks play in their HIV/STI risk behaviors, including substance use. Double incentivized convenience sampling was used to collect egocentric social support network data on 144 Latino immigrants. Latent class analysis was used for data reduction and to identify items best suited to measure quality and quantity of social support. Moderate and high quantity and quality of social support were protective of HIV/STI sexual risk behavior compared to low quantity and quality of support, after adjustment for gender, years in New Orleans and residing with family. Neither measure of social support was associated with binge drinking. The findings suggest that increased quantity and quality of social support decrease HIV/STI sexual risk behaviors but do not influence binge drinking. Interventions that improve the quantity and quality of social support are needed for Latino immigrants.

A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

PubMed

Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

2016-01-01

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effect of peer support interventions on cardiovascular disease risk factors in adults with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Patil, Sonal J; Ruppar, Todd; Koopman, Richelle J; Lindbloom, Erik J; Elliott, Susan G; Mehr, David R; Conn, Vicki S

2018-03-23

Peer support by persons affected with diabetes improves peer supporter's diabetes self-management skills. Peer support interventions by individuals who have diabetes or are affected by diabetes have been shown to improve glycemic control; however, its effects on other cardiovascular disease risk factors in adults with diabetes are unknown. We aimed to estimate the effect of peer support interventions on cardiovascular disease risk factors other than glycemic control in adults with diabetes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing peer support interventions to a control condition in adults affected by diabetes that measured any cardiovascular disease risk factors [Body Mass Index, smoking, diet, physical activity, cholesterol level, glucose control and blood pressure]. Quality was assessed by Cochrane's risk of bias tool. We calculated standardized mean difference effect sizes using random effects models. We retrieved 438 citations from multiple databases including OVID MEDLINE, Cochrane database and Scopus, and author searches. Of 233 abstracts reviewed, 16 articles met inclusion criteria. A random effects model in a total of 3243 participants showed a positive effect of peer support interventions on systolic BP with a pooled effect size of 2.07 mmHg (CI 0.35 mmHg to 3.79 mmHg, p = 0.02); baseline pooled systolic blood pressure was 137 mmHg. There was a non-significant effect of peer support interventions on diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, diet and physical activity. Cardiovascular disease risk factors other than glycemic control outcomes were secondary outcomes in most studies and baseline values were normal or mildly elevated. Only one study reported smoking outcomes. We found a small (2 mmHg) positive effect of peer support interventions on systolic blood pressure in adults with diabetes whose baseline blood pressure was on average minimally elevated. Additional studies need to be conducted to further understand the effect of peer support interventions on high-risk cardiovascular disease risk factors in adults with diabetes.

Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-06-01

This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

2018-01-01

Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

Informal assistance to urban families and the risk of household food insecurity.

PubMed

King, Christian

2017-09-01

Food insecurity is a persistent social problem affecting one out of eight households in the United States. While evidence shows that public assistance programs (formal assistance) are effective in reducing food insecurity, there is more limited evidence documenting how informal support, through social capital, affects food insecurity. To examine the role of informal support (through instrumental social support, social cohesion, social control, and social participation) on food insecurity transitions using longitudinal data of a sample of disadvantaged urban mothers from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. In addition, the study examines whether these associations vary by participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) using interaction terms. The sample includes 2481 mothers of children between ages three and five. The analysis uses unadjusted and adjusted logistic regressions. Interaction terms are included to examine formal and informal support. In addition, the analysis uses structural equation modeling to examine direct and indirect associations of the informal support variables on food insecurity. Social support and social cohesion reduce the risk of food insecurity, reduce the risk of remaining food insecure, and reduce the risk of becoming food insecure. Social control has an indirect effect on food insecurity, which is mainly through social cohesion. Social participation also has an indirect effect through social support and social cohesion. SNAP participation for mothers with little to no informal support did not reduce the risk of food insecurity. Instead of focusing on improving the food access of households, interventions should be expanded to the neighborhood level. Building social capital for low-income residents would increase the cohesiveness of their neighborhoods and their access to social support, which would increase the availability of resources to prevent or overcome food insecurity and other hardships. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of family support and women's knowledge on pregnancy-related risks in adherence to maternal iron-folic acid supplementation in Indonesia.

PubMed

Wiradnyani, Luh Ade Ari; Khusun, Helda; Achadi, Endang L; Ocviyanti, Dwiana; Shankar, Anuraj H

2016-10-01

To examine whether women's knowledge of pregnancy-related risks and family support received during pregnancy are associated with adherence to maternal iron-folic acid (IFA) supplementation. Secondary data analysis of the 2002-03, 2007 and 2012 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. Analysis of the association between factors associated with adherence (consuming ≥90 IFA tablets), including the women's knowledge and family support, was performed using multivariate logistic regression. National household survey. Women (n 19 133) who had given birth within 2 years prior to the interview date. Knowledge of pregnancy-related risks was associated with increased adherence to IFA supplementation (adjusted OR=1·8; 95 % CI 1·6, 2·0), as was full family (particularly husband's) support (adjusted OR=1·9; 95 % CI 1·6, 2·3). Adequate antenatal care (ANC) visits (i.e. four or more) was associated with increased adherence (adjusted OR=2·2; 95 % CI 2·0, 2·4). However, ANC providers missed opportunities to distribute tablets and information, as among women with adequate ANC visits, 15 % reported never having received/bought any IFA tablets and 30 % had no knowledge of pregnancy-related risks. A significant interaction was observed between family support and the women's educational level in predicting adherence. Family support significantly increased the adherence among women with <9 years of education. Improving women's knowledge of pregnancy-related risks and involving family members, particularly the husband and importantly for less-educated women, improved adherence to IFA supplementation. ANC visit opportunities must be optimized to provide women with sufficient numbers of IFA tablets along with health information (especially on pregnancy-related risks) and partner support counselling.

A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Morris, E Jane

2011-10-01

In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

Limitations of self-care in reducing the risk of lymphedema: supportive-educative systems.

PubMed

Armer, Jane M; Brooks, Constance W; Stewart, Bob R

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine patient perceptions of limitations related to self-care measures to reduce lymphedema risk following breast cancer surgery. Secondary analysis of survey data from a companion study to a study piloting a behavioral-educational intervention was conducted to examine the specific limitations in performing lymphedema risk-reduction self-care measures. Findings suggest a more comprehensive approach is needed if patients are to engage in self-care actions to reduce lymphedema risk. Understanding the concepts of self-care and personal support interventions that include motivational interviewing can help nurses design supportive-educative care systems that assist patients in overcoming limitations in the estimative, transitional, and productive phases of self-care necessary to reduce lymphedema risk.

Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

PubMed

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

2004-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

EPA Science Inventory

NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

Manual perineal support at the time of childbirth: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bulchandani, S; Watts, E; Sucharitha, A; Yates, D; Ismail, K M

2015-08-01

Genital tract trauma is common with vaginal births and is associated with significant morbidity, particularly with obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS). Debate continues regarding the effectiveness of perineal support during childbirth in reducing the risk of trauma. This review aimed to assess the effect of routine 'hands on'/manual perineal support (MPS) during childbirth, versus ad hoc/no perineal support ('hands off/poised'), on the risk and degree of perineal trauma. This review is registered on PROSPERO (http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.asp?ID=CRD42014007058). We searched the CENTRAL, Embase, Medline, CINAHL, and OVIDs midwifery and infant care databases (from inception to December 2014). Published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies (NRSs) evaluating any 'hands on' perineal support technique during childbirth. Two reviewers independently assessed trials for inclusion, data extraction, and methodological quality. Discrepancies were resolved by discussion with a third reviewer. We included five RCTs and seven NRSs in the review. Meta-analysis of RCTs did not demonstrate a statistically significant protective effect of MPS on the risk of OASIS (three studies, 6647 women; relative risk, RR 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 0.32-3.36; statistical test for heterogeneity I(2) = 71%). Meta-analysis of NRSs showed a significant reduction in the risk of OASIS with MPS (three studies, 74,744 women; RR 0.45; 95% CI 0.40-0.50; I(2) = 32%). Current evidence is insufficient to drive change in practice. An adequately powered randomised trial with an efficient design to evaluate the complex interventions adopted as part of MPS policies, ensuring controlled childbirth, is urgently needed. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Costing the satellite power system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

1978-01-01

The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

Nurse practitioners: leadership behaviors and organizational climate.

PubMed

Jones, L C; Guberski, T D; Soeken, K L

1990-01-01

The purpose of this article is to examine the relationships of individual nurse practitioners' perceptions of the leadership climate in their organizations and self-reported formal and informal leadership behaviors. The nine climate dimensions (Structure, Responsibility, Reward, Perceived Support of Risk Taking, Warmth, Support, Standard Setting, Conflict, and Identity) identified by Litwin and Stringer in 1968 were used to predict five leadership dimensions (Meeting Organizational Needs, Managing Resources, Leadership Competence, Task Accomplishment, and Communications). Demographic variables of age, educational level, and percent of time spent performing administrative functions were forced as a first step in each multiple regression analysis and used to explain a significant amount of variance in all but one analysis. All leadership dimensions were predicted by at least one organizational climate dimension: (1) Meeting Organizational Needs by Risk and Reward; (2) Managing Resources by Risk and Structure; (3) Leadership Competence by Risk and Standards; (4) Task Accomplishment by Structure, Risk, and Standards; and (5) Communication by Rewards.

Are iso-osmolar, as compared to low-osmolar, contrast media cost-effective in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization? An economic analysis.

PubMed

Hiremath, Swapnil; Akbari, Ayub; Wells, George A; Chow, Benjamin J W

2018-04-23

Contrast-induced acute kidney injury is a prominent complication following cardiac catheterization, though the risk has progressively decreased in recent times with appropriate risk stratification and use of safer contrast agents. Despite data supporting further lowering of risk with the iso-osmolar agent, iodixanol, uptake has lagged, perhaps due to increased upfront cost of this agent. We undertook an economic analysis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a strategy utilizing iodixanol compared to using a low-osmolar contrast agent. We created a Markov model to evaluate the two strategies, and included a differential relative risk of contrast-induced acute kidney injury, based on a systematic review of the literature. Downstream clinical events, including need for dialysis and mortality, were modeled using data from existing published literature. A third-party payer perspective was utilized for the analysis and presentation of the primary economic analysis. The strategy of using iodixanol dominated in both the low-risk and high-risk base case analyses. However, the difference was quite small in the low-risk scenario (lifetime cost: C$678,034 vs. C$678,059 and life expectancy: 19.80 vs. 19.72 years). The difference was more marked (life expectancy 15.65 vs. 14.15 years and cost C$680,989 vs. C$682,023) in the high-risk case analysis. This was robust across most of the variables tested in sensitivity analyses. The use of iodixanol, compared with low-osmolar contrast agents, for cardiac catheterization, results in a small benefit clinical outcomes, and in a savings in direct healthcare costs. Overall, our analysis supports the use of iodixanol for cardiac catheterization, especially in patients at high risk of acute kidney injury.

Multimodal Retrospective and Prospective Unit-Level Analysis of Military Workplace Violence

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

Disciplinary infractions, minor crimes, PTSD and other mental problems, and substance abuse will increase MWV; 3. Treatment and social support will...Disorder Risk Taking Behaviors Risk Factors Protective Factors Social Support Mental Health Substance Abuse 2 3. OVERALL PROJECT SUMMARY The...potential predictors of MWV. These intervening outcomes include PTSD and other mental health issues, substance abuse , disciplinary infractions, and

Optimal Scaling of HIV-Related Sexual Risk Behaviors in Ethnically Diverse Homosexually Active Men.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cochran, Susan D.; And Others

1995-01-01

Used homogeneity analysis and latent class analysis to analyze sexual behavior patterns in two samples of homosexually active men. Results support the existence of a single, nonlinear, latent dimension underlying male homosexual behaviors consistent with HIV-related risk taking, providing an efficient means to scale sexual behavior patterns. (RJM)

Examining the Relationship Between Pain Catastrophizing and Suicide Risk in Patients with Rheumatic Disease: the Mediating Role of Depression, Perceived Social Support, and Perceived Burdensomeness.

PubMed

Shim, Eun -Jung; Song, Yeong Wook; Park, Seung-Hee; Lee, Kwang-Min; Go, Dong Jin; Hahm, Bong-Jin

2017-08-01

Little research has examined the role of pain catastrophizing (PC) in predicting suicide among patients with rheumatic disease or the mechanisms through which it works. This study examines whether depression, perceived social support (PSS), and perceived burdensomeness (PB) mediate the relationship between PC and suicide risk. It also examines the relative importance of sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological factors in predicting suicide risk. Three hundred sixty patients from a rheumatology clinic in Korea completed measures of pain catastrophizing, social support, depression, and perceived burdensomeness. In hierarchical multiple regression analysis, the PC magnification, PB, physical disability, and PSS were significantly related to suicide risk. Results of the serial multiple mediation analysis indicated that the total indirect effect of PC magnification on suicide risk was significant while the direct effect was not. Four specific indirect effects of PC magnification were found to be statistically significant. First of all, PC magnification was associated with suicide risk through PB and through depression and PB. PC magnification was also associated with suicide risk through depression and PSS. Lastly, PC magnification was associated with suicide risk through depression, PSS, and PB. The identified pathways through which PC affects suicide risk suggest the importance of depression, PSS, and PB. Evaluation and intervention targeted at physical disability and the psychological factors of PC magnification, depression, PSS, and PB may be integrated into the management of suicide risk in patients with rheumatic disease.

Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

Investigating Married Adults' Communal Coping with Genetic Health Risk and Perceived Discrimination

PubMed Central

Smith, Rachel A.; Sillars, Alan; Chesnut, Ryan P.; Zhu, Xun

2017-01-01

Increased genetic testing in personalized medicine presents unique challenges for couples, including managing disease risk and potential discrimination as a couple. This study investigated couples' conflicts and support gaps as they coped with perceived genetic discrimination. We also explored the degree to which communal coping was beneficial in reducing support gaps, and ultimately stress. Dyadic analysis of married adults (N = 266, 133 couples), in which one person had the genetic risk for serious illness, showed that perceived discrimination predicted more frequent conflicts about AATD-related treatment, privacy boundaries, and finances, which, in turn, predicted wider gaps in emotion and esteem support, and greater stress for both spouses. Communal coping predicted lower support gaps for both partners and marginally lower stress. PMID:29731540

Investigating Married Adults' Communal Coping with Genetic Health Risk and Perceived Discrimination.

PubMed

Smith, Rachel A; Sillars, Alan; Chesnut, Ryan P; Zhu, Xun

2018-01-01

Increased genetic testing in personalized medicine presents unique challenges for couples, including managing disease risk and potential discrimination as a couple. This study investigated couples' conflicts and support gaps as they coped with perceived genetic discrimination. We also explored the degree to which communal coping was beneficial in reducing support gaps, and ultimately stress. Dyadic analysis of married adults ( N = 266, 133 couples), in which one person had the genetic risk for serious illness, showed that perceived discrimination predicted more frequent conflicts about AATD-related treatment, privacy boundaries, and finances, which, in turn, predicted wider gaps in emotion and esteem support, and greater stress for both spouses. Communal coping predicted lower support gaps for both partners and marginally lower stress.

Program risk analysis handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batson, R. G.

1987-01-01

NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

PubMed

Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

2015-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations

PubMed Central

Dotson, G. Scott; Hudson, Naomi L.; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management. PMID:26312660

Public support for alcohol policies associated with knowledge of cancer risk.

PubMed

Buykx, Penny; Gilligan, Conor; Ward, Bernadette; Kippen, Rebecca; Chapman, Kathy

2015-04-01

Several options are advocated by policy experts to mitigate alcohol-related harms, although the most effective strategies often have the least public support. While knowledge of tobacco-related health risks predicts support for relevant public health measures, it is not known whether knowledge of alcohol health risks is similarly associated with the acceptability of policies intended to reduce alcohol consumption and related harms. This study aims to gauge public support for a range of alcohol policies and to determine whether or not support is associated with knowledge of a long-term health risk of alcohol consumption, specifically cancer. 2482 adults in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, participated in an online survey. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between demographic data, alcohol consumption, smoking status, knowledge of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer and support for alcohol-related policies. Most participants were supportive of health warnings, restricting access to internet alcohol advertising to young people, and requiring information on national drinking guidelines on alcohol containers. Almost half of participants supported a ban on sport sponsorship, while less than 41% supported price increases, volumetric taxation, or reducing the number of retail outlets. Only 47% of participants identified drinking too much alcohol as a risk factor for cancer. Knowledge of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer was a significant predictor of support for all policies, while level of alcohol consumption had a significant inverse relationship with policy support. The finding that support for alcohol management policies is associated with awareness that drinking too much alcohol may contribute to cancer could assist in the planning of future public health interventions. Improving awareness of the long term health risks of alcohol consumption may be one avenue to increasing public support for effective alcohol harm-reduction policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

To Ask or Not to Ask? Opinions of Pediatric Medical Inpatients about Suicide Risk Screening in the Hospital.

PubMed

Ross, Abigail M; White, Erina; Powell, Daniel; Nelson, Sally; Horowitz, Lisa; Wharff, Elizabeth

2016-03-01

To describe opinions about suicide risk screening in a pediatric medical inpatient sample. As part of a larger instrument validation study, 200 pediatric medical inpatients (ages 10-21 years) were screened for suicide risk. Participants completed demographic self-report forms and were asked their opinions about suicide risk screening. Patient responses were recorded verbatim by trained research social workers. Qualitative data was analyzed using thematic analysis. The majority of adolescents who participated had not been previously asked about suicide (N = 101; 62.3%) and were supportive of suicide risk screening (81.0%). Five salient themes emerged from the qualitative analysis of patient opinions: prevention, elevated risk, emotional benefits, provider responsibility, and lack of harm in asking. The majority of youth screened for suicide risk on medical inpatient units were supportive of suicide risk screening. Opinion data have the potential to inform screening practices and assure clinicians that suicide risk screening will be acceptable to pediatric patients and their parents. Given the lack of screening in these patients' past experiences, the medical setting is a unique opportunity to capture youth at risk for suicide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

2016-04-01

Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling intelligent adversaries for terrorism risk assessment: some necessary conditions for adversary models.

PubMed

Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Scalable collaborative risk management technology for complex critical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Scott; Torgerson, Leigh; Burleigh, Scott; Feather, Martin S.; Kiper, James D.

2004-01-01

We describe here our project and plans to develop methods, software tools, and infrastructure tools to address challenges relating to geographically distributed software development. Specifically, this work is creating an infrastructure that supports applications working over distributed geographical and organizational domains and is using this infrastructure to develop a tool that supports project development using risk management and analysis techniques where the participants are not collocated.

Socio-Structural Barriers, Protective Factors, and HIV Risk Among Central-Asian Female Migrants in Moscow

PubMed Central

Zabrocki, Christopher; Weine, Stevan; Chen, Stephanie; Brajkovic, Ivana; Bahromov, Mahbat; Loue, Sana; Jonbekov, Jonbek; Shoakova, Farzona

2013-01-01

Objective This study aimed to build formative knowledge on socio-structural barriers, protective factors, and HIV sexual risk amongst Central-Asian female migrants in Moscow. Methods Data collection included ethnographic interviews in Moscow with a purposive sample of 30 unmarried female migrants, 15 from Kyrgyzstan and 15 from Tajikistan. Results Study participants reported difficulties with acquiring documents for legal status, financial insecurity, discrimination, sexual harassment, and lack of support. Based on analysis of the cases, one pathway linked lack of legal documentation and instrumental support with elevated sexual risk. Another pathways linked traditional cultural attitudes with both no and moderate sexual risk. Conclusion Future HIV prevention efforts with Central Asian female migrants in Moscow should be multilevel and include: increasing HIV and prevention knowledge and skills, promoting condom use with regular partners, identifying and supporting cultural attitudes that protect against HIV sexual risk behaviors, facilitating legal status, building community support, and increasing economic options. PMID:25360392

GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload

DOE Data Explorer

Teresa E. Jordan

2015-09-30

This submission contains information used to compute the risk factors for the GPFA-AB project (DE-EE0006726). The risk factors are natural reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the product, sum, and minimum of the four risk factors. The files are divided into images, rasters, shapefiles, and supporting information. The image files show what the raster and shapefiles should look like. The raster files contain the input risk factors, calculation of the scaled risk factors, and calculation of the combined risk factors. The shapefiles include definition of the fairways, definition of the US Census Places, the center of the raster cells, and locations of industries. Supporting information contains details of the calculations or processing used in generating the files. An image of the raster will have the same name except *.png as the file ending instead of *.tif. Images with “fairways” or “industries” added to the name are composed of a raster with the relevant shapefile added. The file About_GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload.pdf contains information the citation, special use considerations, authorship, etc. More details on each file are given in the spreadsheet “list_of_contents.csv” in the folder “SupportingInfo”. Code used to calculate values is available at https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder “combining_metrics”.

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact-probability matrix in terms of socio-economic dimension.

THE ROLE OF EXPOSURE ANALYSIS IN HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will cover the basic methodologies used for assessing human exposures to environmental pollutants, and some of the scientific challenges involved in conducting exposure and risk assessments in support of regulatory evaluations.

Examining spiritual support among African American and Caucasian Alzheimer's caregivers: A risk and resilience study.

PubMed

Wilks, Scott E; Spurlock, Wanda R; Brown, Sandra C; Teegen, Bettina C; Geiger, Jennifer R

2018-05-25

Research shows African Americans at greater risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) compared to the Caucasian population, suggesting African American AD caregivers are rising in numbers at a greater rate than Caucasian counterparts. Over a decade ago, an article in Geriatric Nursing revealed spiritual well-being differences among these caregiver groups. The purpose of this study was a quasi-follow-up, utilizing a larger caregiver sample to test spiritual support as a moderator via a risk-and-resilience framework. Secondary data analysis from a sample of 691 AD caregivers examined data on demographics and standardized measures of spiritual support, caregiver burden, and psychological resilience. One-third of the sample reported as African American. Resilience negatively regressed, though not significantly, on caregiving burden among both groups. Spiritual support positively, significantly impacted resilience among both groups, slightly stronger among African Americans. Spiritual support did not significantly moderate risk with either group. Implications for professional healthcare practice are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Soliman, T; MacLeod, A; Mumford, J D; Nghiem, T P L; Tan, H T W; Papworth, S K; Corlett, R T; Carrasco, L R

2016-05-01

A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Interactive decision support in hepatic surgery

PubMed Central

Dugas, Martin; Schauer, Rolf; Volk, Andreas; Rau, Horst

2002-01-01

Background Hepatic surgery is characterized by complicated operations with a significant peri- and postoperative risk for the patient. We developed a web-based, high-granular research database for comprehensive documentation of all relevant variables to evaluate new surgical techniques. Methods To integrate this research system into the clinical setting, we designed an interactive decision support component. The objective is to provide relevant information for the surgeon and the patient to assess preoperatively the risk of a specific surgical procedure. Based on five established predictors of patient outcomes, the risk assessment tool searches for similar cases in the database and aggregates the information to estimate the risk for an individual patient. Results The physician can verify the analysis and exclude manually non-matching cases according to his expertise. The analysis is visualized by means of a Kaplan-Meier plot. To evaluate the decision support component we analyzed data on 165 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (period 1996–2000). The similarity search provides a two-peak distribution indicating there are groups of similar patients and singular cases which are quite different to the average. The results of the risk estimation are consistent with the observed survival data, but must be interpreted with caution because of the limited number of matching reference cases. Conclusion Critical issues for the decision support system are clinical integration, a transparent and reliable knowledge base and user feedback. PMID:12003639

Using Latent Class Analysis to Identify Academic and Behavioral Risk Status in Elementary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Kathleen R.; Lembke, Erica S.; Reinke, Wendy M.

2016-01-01

Identifying classes of children on the basis of academic and behavior risk may have important implications for the allocation of intervention resources within Response to Intervention (RTI) and Multi-Tiered System of Support (MTSS) models. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted with a sample of 517 third grade students. Fall screening scores in…

Risk Management for Weapon Systems Acquisition: A Decision Support System

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-28

includes the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) for network analysis, the PMRM for quantifying risk , an optimization package for generating...Despite the inclusion of uncertainty in time, PERT can at best be considered as a tool for quantifying risk with regard to the time element only. Moreover

Sexual identity stigma and social support among men who have sex with men in Lesotho: a qualitative analysis.

PubMed

Stahlman, Shauna; Bechtold, Kali; Sweitzer, Stephanie; Mothopeng, Tampose; Taruberekera, Noah; Nkonyana, John; Baral, Stefan

2015-11-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) face sexual identity stigma in many settings, which can increase risk for HIV by limiting access to care. This paper examines the roles of social support, sexual identity stigma, and sexual identity disclosure among MSM in Lesotho, a lower-middle income country within South Africa. Qualitative data were collected from 23 in-depth interview and six focus group participants and content analysis was performed to extract themes. Four primary themes emerged: 1) Verbal abuse from the broader community is a major challenge faced by MSM in Lesotho, 2) participants who were open about their sexual identity experienced greater stigma but were more self-sufficient and had higher self-confidence, 3) relationships between MSM tend to be conducted in secrecy, which can be associated with unhealthy relationships between male couples and higher risk sexual practices, and 4) MSM community organisations provide significant social and emotional support. Friends and family members from outside the MSM community also offer social support, but this support cannot be utilised by MSM until the risk of disclosing their sexual identity is reduced. Greater acceptance of same-sex practices would likely result in more open, healthy relationships and greater access to social support for MSM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The technical effort and computer code enhancements performed during the sixth year of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods program are summarized. Various capabilities are described to probabilistically combine structural response and structural resistance to compute component reliability. A library of structural resistance models is implemented in the Numerical Evaluations of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) code that included fatigue, fracture, creep, multi-factor interaction, and other important effects. In addition, a user interface was developed for user-defined resistance models. An accurate and efficient reliability method was developed and was successfully implemented in the NESSUS code to compute component reliability based on user-selected response and resistance models. A risk module was developed to compute component risk with respect to cost, performance, or user-defined criteria. The new component risk assessment capabilities were validated and demonstrated using several examples. Various supporting methodologies were also developed in support of component risk assessment.

Community health workers, social support and cervical cancer screening among high-risk groups in rural Mexico.

PubMed

Elliott, Patrick F; Belinson, Suzanne E; Ottolenghi, Emma; Smyth, Kathleen; Belinson, Jerome L

2013-11-01

Rural Mexico has a low screening prevalence and high burden of cervical cancer. One strategy to increase screening coverage utilizes community health workers (CHWs) to recruit high-risk women and address barriers. We conducted a systematic cross-sectional survey of 196 women residing in Chiapas, Mexico who were recruited by either CHWs or traditional means for screening. This analysis compares 110 rural women's risk factors, attitudes and knowledge of cervical cancer and socioeconomic factors stratified by type of recruitment. Women who were informed of screening by CHWs were more likely to be of high risk sub-groups and report higher scores of social support but were also more likely to endorse difficulty with access and fatalistic attitudes about cancer. Utilizing CWHs results in increased screening among high-risk women and increased social support for screening among rural women, addressing a significant barrier, but may have limited effects on other barriers.

Genetic Counseling for Breast Cancer Susceptibility in African American Women

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

support following breast cancer diagnosis among African American women;33 the availability of spousal and/or partner support following test results... Nanda R, Schumm LP, Cummings S, Fackenthal JD, et al. Genetic testing in an ethnically diverse cohort of high-risk women: a comparative analysis of... diagnosis and treatment on intrusion in African American breast cancer survivors at an increased risk of hereditary disease. Studies are also needed to

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Optimism and depression: a new look at social support as a mediator among women at risk for breast cancer.

PubMed

Garner, Melissa J; McGregor, Bonnie A; Murphy, Karly M; Koenig, Alex L; Dolan, Emily D; Albano, Denise

2015-12-01

Breast cancer risk is a chronic stressor associated with depression. Optimism is associated with lower levels of depression among breast cancer survivors. However, to our knowledge, no studies have explored the relationship between optimism and depression among women at risk for breast cancer. We hypothesized that women at risk for breast cancer who have higher levels of optimism would report lower levels of depression and that social support would mediate this relationship. Participants (N = 199) with elevated distress were recruited from the community and completed self-report measures of depression, optimism, and social support. Participants were grouped based on their family history of breast cancer. Path analysis was used to examine the cross-sectional relationship between optimism, social support, and depressive symptoms in each group. Results indicated that the variance in depressive symptoms was partially explained through direct paths from optimism and social support among women with a family history of breast cancer. The indirect path from optimism to depressive symptoms via social support was significant (β = -.053; 90% CI = -.099 to -.011, p = .037) in this group. However, among individuals without a family history of breast cancer, the indirect path from optimism to depressive symptoms via social support was not significant. These results suggest that social support partially mediates the relationship between optimism and depression among women at risk for breast cancer. Social support may be an important intervention target to reduce depression among women at risk for breast cancer. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictors of depressive symptoms in older Japanese primiparas at 1 month post-partum: A risk-stratified analysis.

PubMed

Iwata, Hiroko; Mori, Emi; Tsuchiya, Miyako; Sakajo, Akiko; Maehara, Kunie; Ozawa, Harumi; Morita, Akiko; Maekawa, Tomoko; Aoki, Kyoko; Tamakoshi, Koji

2016-01-01

Older maternal age has become more common in Japan. Studies suggest that older maternal age and primiparity are associated with post-partum depression. The present study aimed to identify predictors of post-partum depression in older Japanese primiparas at 1 month post-partum. Participants were 479 primiparas aged 35 years and over, drawn from a prospective cohort study. Data were collected using self-report questionnaires. Depression was measured with the Japanese version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted on binary outcome variables of depression at 1 month post-partum, along with a stratified analysis based on the risk status of depression. Five predictors were identified: (i) the depression score during hospital stay; (ii) financial burden; (iii) dissatisfaction with appraisal support; (iv) physical burden in daily life; and (v) concerns about infant caretaking. Stratified analysis identified dissatisfaction with instrumental support in the low-risk group, and the Child-care Value Scale score as unique predictors in the high-risk group. These results highlight the importance of early assessment of depressive symptoms and the provision of continuous care. © 2015 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2014-05-01

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

RISMC Toolkit and Methodology Research and Development Plan for External Hazards Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin Leigh

This report includes the description and development plan for a Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology that will evaluate multihazard risk in an integrated manner to support the operating nuclear fleet.

Assessing plant protection practices using pressure indicator and toxicity risk indicators: analysis of therelationship between these indicators for improved risk management, application in viticulture.

PubMed

Oussama, Mghirbi; Kamel, Ellefi; Philippe, Le Grusse; Elisabeth, Mandart; Jacques, Fabre; Habiba, Ayadi; Jean-Paul, Bord

2015-06-01

The excessive use of plant protection products (PPPs) has given rise to issues of public and environmental health because of their toxicity. Reducing the use of toxic PPPs and replacing them with products that are less toxic for human health and the environment have become socially, environmentally and economically indispensable. In this article, we assess the plant protection practices of a small group of winegrowers practicing "integrated agriculture" in the south of France, in order to measure the benefit of using toxicity risk indicators as a decision-support tool for different players in land management. An analysis of plant protection practices using indicators of the risk to operator health and the environment (IRSA, IRTE), together with a frequency-of-treatment indicator (TFI), enabled us to (i) show the variability of these indicators depending on the production system and farmers' pesticide use strategies and (ii) calculate correlations between these indicators. This analysis of plant protection practices at different scales (farm, field), carried out in collaboration with the growers, enabled us to perform an initial validation of decision-support tools for determining risk management strategies regarding the use of pesticides.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Social support and maternal mental health at 4 months and 1 year postpartum: analysis from the All Our Families cohort.

PubMed

Hetherington, Erin; McDonald, Sheila; Williamson, Tyler; Patten, Scott B; Tough, Suzanne C

2018-06-19

Low social support is consistently associated with postpartum depression. Previous studies do not always control for previous mental health and do not consider what type of support (tangible, emotional, informational or positive social interaction) is most important. The objectives are: to examine if low social support contributes to subsequent risk of depressive or anxiety symptoms and to determine which type of support is most important. Data from the All Our Families longitudinal pregnancy cohort were used (n=3057). Outcomes were depressive or anxiety symptoms at 4 months and 1 year postpartum. Exposures were social support during pregnancy and at 4 months postpartum. Log binomial models were used to calculate risk ratios (RRs) and absolute risk differences, controlling for past mental health. Low total social support during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of depressive symptoms (RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.82) and anxiety symptoms (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.93) at 4 months postpartum. Low total social support at 4 months was associated with an increased risk of anxiety symptoms (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.09) at 1 year. Absolute risk differences were largest among women with previous mental health challenges resulting in a number needed to treat of 5 for some outcomes. Emotional/informational support was the most important type of support for postpartum anxiety. Group prenatal care, prenatal education and peer support programmes have the potential to improve social support. Prenatal interventions studies are needed to confirm these findings in higher risk groups. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk pathways among traumatic stress, posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms, and alcohol and drug problems: a test of four hypotheses.

PubMed

Haller, Moira; Chassin, Laurie

2014-09-01

The present study utilized longitudinal data from a community sample (n = 377; 166 trauma-exposed; 54% males; 73% non-Hispanic Caucasian; 22% Hispanic; 5% other ethnicity) to test whether pretrauma substance use problems increase risk for trauma exposure (high-risk hypothesis) or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms (susceptibility hypothesis), whether PTSD symptoms increase risk for later alcohol/drug problems (self-medication hypothesis), and whether the association between PTSD symptoms and alcohol/drug problems is attributable to shared risk factors (shared vulnerability hypothesis). Logistic and negative binomial regressions were performed in a path analysis framework. Results provided the strongest support for the self-medication hypothesis, such that PTSD symptoms predicted higher levels of later alcohol and drug problems, over and above the influences of pretrauma family risk factors, pretrauma substance use problems, trauma exposure, and demographic variables. Results partially supported the high-risk hypothesis, such that adolescent substance use problems increased risk for assaultive violence exposure but did not influence overall risk for trauma exposure. There was no support for the susceptibility hypothesis. Finally, there was little support for the shared vulnerability hypothesis. Neither trauma exposure nor preexisting family adversity accounted for the link between PTSD symptoms and later substance use problems. Rather, PTSD symptoms mediated the effect of pretrauma family adversity on later alcohol and drug problems, thereby supporting the self-medication hypothesis. These findings make important contributions to better understanding the directions of influence among traumatic stress, PTSD symptoms, and substance use problems.

Orphan Status, HIV Risk Behavior, and Mental Health Among Adolescents in Rural Kenya

PubMed Central

Drabkin, Anya S.; Stashko, Allison L.; Broverman, Sherryl A.; Ogwang-Odhiambo, Rose A.; Sikkema, Kathleen J.

2012-01-01

Objective To examine orphan status, mental health, social support, and HIV risk among adolescents in rural Kenya. Methods Randomly selected adolescents aged 10–18 years completed surveys assessing sexual activity, sex-related beliefs and self-efficacy, mental health, social support, caregiver–child communication, time since parental death, and economic resources. Analysis of covariance and regression analyses compared orphans and nonorphans; orphan status was tested as a moderator between well-being and HIV risk. Results Orphans reported poorer mental health, less social support, and fewer material resources. They did not differ from nonorphans on HIV risk indicators. Longer time since parental death was associated with poorer outcomes. In moderator analyses, emotional problems and poorer caregiver–youth communication were more strongly associated with lower sex-related self-efficacy for orphans. Conclusions Orphans are at higher risk for psychosocial problems. These problems may affect orphans’ self-efficacy for safer sex practices more than nonorphans. Decreased HIV risk could be one benefit of psychosocial interventions for orphans. PMID:22728899

Orphan status, HIV risk behavior, and mental health among adolescents in rural Kenya.

PubMed

Puffer, Eve S; Drabkin, Anya S; Stashko, Allison L; Broverman, Sherryl A; Ogwang-Odhiambo, Rose A; Sikkema, Kathleen J

2012-09-01

To examine orphan status, mental health, social support, and HIV risk among adolescents in rural Kenya. Randomly selected adolescents aged 10-18 years completed surveys assessing sexual activity, sex-related beliefs and self-efficacy, mental health, social support, caregiver-child communication, time since parental death, and economic resources. Analysis of covariance and regression analyses compared orphans and nonorphans; orphan status was tested as a moderator between well-being and HIV risk. Orphans reported poorer mental health, less social support, and fewer material resources. They did not differ from nonorphans on HIV risk indicators. Longer time since parental death was associated with poorer outcomes. In moderator analyses, emotional problems and poorer caregiver-youth communication were more strongly associated with lower sex-related self-efficacy for orphans. Orphans are at higher risk for psychosocial problems. These problems may affect orphans' self-efficacy for safer sex practices more than nonorphans. Decreased HIV risk could be one benefit of psychosocial interventions for orphans.

Perspectives in adolescent risk-taking through instrument development.

PubMed

Busen, N H; Kouzekanani, K

2000-01-01

Understanding the high-risk adolescent's perception of risk taking is essential for health professionals to determine appropriate interventions. The purpose of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the revised Adolescent Risk-Taking Instrument (ARTI) designed to measure the high-risk adolescent's perception of risk taking. This study also examined the variables that are most predictive of social adaptation and risk taking. An ex post facto design was used to standardize data collection and to assess the psychometric properties of the revised ARTI. The nonprobability sample consisted of 167 adolescents attending school in an urban, health-underserved area. Exploratory factor analysis supported construct validity, and Chronbach's Coefficient Alpha supported internal consistency reliability. The reliability coefficient for the risk taking and social adaptation constructs were .80 and .77, respectively. Current perspectives on adolescent risk taking and implications for the use of the ARTI in clinical practice are addressed.

Aquatic Nuisance Species in the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin—A Risk Assessment in Support of GLMRIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grippo, Mark A.; Hlohowskyj, Ihor; Fox, Laura

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study (GLMRIS) to determine the aquatic nuisance species (ANS) currently established in either the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) or the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) that pose the greatest risk to the other basin. The GLRMIS study focuses specifically on ANS transfer through the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS), a multi-use waterway connecting the two basins. In support of GLMRIS, we conducted a qualitative risk assessment for 34 ANS in which we determined overall risk level for four time intervals over a 50-year period ofmore » analysis based on the probability of ANS establishing in a new basin and the environmental, economic, and sociopolitical consequences of their establishment. Probability of establishment and consequences of establishment were assigned qualitative ratings of high, medium, or low and establishment and consequence ratings were then combined into an overall risk rating. Over the 50-year period of analysis, seven species were characterized as posing a medium risk and two species as posing a high risk to the MRB. Three species were characterized as posing a medium risk to the GLB, but no high-risk species were identified for this basin. Based on the time frame in which these species were considered likely to establish in the new basin, risk increased over time for some ANS. Identifying and prioritizing ANS risk supported the development and evaluation of multiple control alternatives that could reduce the probability of interbasin ANS transfer. However, both species traits and the need to balance multiple uses of the CAWS make it difficult to design cost-efficient and socially acceptable controls to reduce the probability of ANS transfer between the two basins.« less

A STUDY ON PREPARING THE BCP FOR LOCAL ADMINISTRATION COSIDERING SUBSISTED RISK ANALYSIS OF ROAD NETWORK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakata, Akio; Ito, Norio; Kawamoto, Atsushi; Shiraki, Wataru

For road networks in mountain site which are very important infrastructures for rescue and support operations in disaster, a study on preparing the BCP for local administrations at less favored area considering subsisted risk analysis is performed. As a risk the stop of road networks caused by collapse of natural slop or cut slop is considered. The effects of the stop of road networks are analyzed and the important of preparing the BCP is demonstrated.

Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the relevance of accounting for the full range of flood events and their relation to both potential damages and benefits in risk assessments. Management measures may thus be designed to reflect local contexts and support benefits of natural hydrologic processes, while minimizing flood damage.

Interprofessional communication supporting clinical handover in emergency departments: An observation study.

PubMed

Redley, Bernice; Botti, Mari; Wood, Beverley; Bucknall, Tracey

2017-08-01

Poor interprofessional communication poses a risk to patient safety at change-of-shift in emergency departments (EDs). The purpose of this study was to identify and describe patterns and processes of interprofessional communication impacting quality of ED change-of-shift handovers. Observation of 66 change-of-shift handovers at two acute hospital EDs in Victoria, Australia. Focus groups with 34 nurse participants complemented the observations. Qualitative data analysis involved content and thematic methods. Four structural components of ED handover processes emerged represented by (ABCD): (1) Antecedents; (2) Behaviours and interactions; (3) Content; and (4) Delegation of ongoing care. Infrequent and ad hoc interprofessional communication and discipline-specific handover content and processes emerged as specific risks to patient safety at change-of-shift handovers. Three themes related to risky and effective practices to support interprofessional communications across the four stages of ED handovers emerged: 1) standard processes and practices, 2) teamwork and interactions and 3) communication activities and practices. Unreliable interprofessional communication can impact the quality of change-of-shift handovers in EDs and poses risk to patient safety. Structured reflective analysis of existing practices can identify opportunities for standardisation, enhanced team practices and effective communication across four stages of the handover process to support clinicians to enhance local handover practices. Future research should test and refine models to support analysis of practice, and identify and test strategies to enhance ED interprofessional communication to support clinical handovers. Copyright © 2017 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social support, gender and patient delay.

PubMed

Pedersen, A F; Olesen, F; Hansen, R P; Zachariae, R; Vedsted, P

2011-04-12

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between perceived social support and patient delay (PD) among female and male cancer patients. A population-based study with register-sampled cancer patients was designed. Patient delay was defined as the time interval between the patient's experience of the first symptom and the first contact with a health-care professional. Both dates were provided by the patients (n=910). The patients completed a purpose-designed questionnaire, which assessed the patient's perceptions of how the partner reacted ('Partner Avoidance' and 'Partner Support') and how others in the social network responded ('Other Avoidance' and 'Other Support') to the patient's worries about the symptoms. The associations between the social support subscales and PD were analysed separately for men and women. In female patients, Partner Support and Other Support were associated with shorter PD, whereas Other Avoidance was associated with longer PD. In the multivariate analysis, Other Avoidance remained associated with longer PD. Moreover, disclosure of symptoms to someone reduced the likelihood of a long PD in female patients. In male patients, none of the social support scales significantly increased or decreased the risk of a long PD in the univariate analysis, but Partner Support significantly decreased risk of a long PD in the multivariate analysis. The results of this study suggest that social support and avoidance from network members influence length of PD differently in male and female cancer patients. This gender difference may explain previous mixed findings obtained in this field.

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

Defining Research Risk in Standard of Care Trials: Lessons from SUPPORT.

PubMed

Press, Joel K; Rogers, Caryn J

2017-04-01

Recent controversy surrounding the Surfactant Positive Airway Pressure and Pulse Oximetry Trial (SUPPORT) and the Office for Human Resource Protection's (OHRP) judgment that its informed consent procedures were inadequate has unmasked considerable confusion about OHRP's definition of research risks. The controversy concerns application of that definition to trials comparing multiple treatments within the existing standard of care. Some have argued that it is impossible for such trials to pose research risks on the grounds that all risks associated with a standard-of-care treatment should instead be considered risks of treatment. However, analysis of OHRP's definition demonstrates that some risks in such trials can be research risks. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Journal of Medicine and Philosophy Inc. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nutrition support in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk.

PubMed

Feinberg, Joshua; Nielsen, Emil Eik; Korang, Steven Kwasi; Halberg Engell, Kirstine; Nielsen, Marie Skøtt; Zhang, Kang; Didriksen, Maria; Lund, Lisbeth; Lindahl, Niklas; Hallum, Sara; Liang, Ning; Xiong, Wenjing; Yang, Xuemei; Brunsgaard, Pernille; Garioud, Alexandre; Safi, Sanam; Lindschou, Jane; Kondrup, Jens; Gluud, Christian; Jakobsen, Janus C

2017-05-19

The prevalence of disease-related malnutrition in Western European hospitals is estimated to be about 30%. There is no consensus whether poor nutritional status causes poorer clinical outcome or if it is merely associated with it. The intention with all forms of nutrition support is to increase uptake of essential nutrients and improve clinical outcome. Previous reviews have shown conflicting results with regard to the effects of nutrition support. To assess the benefits and harms of nutrition support versus no intervention, treatment as usual, or placebo in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid SP), Embase (Ovid SP), LILACS (BIREME), and Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science). We also searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (www.who.int/ictrp); ClinicalTrials.gov; Turning Research Into Practice (TRIP); Google Scholar; and BIOSIS, as well as relevant bibliographies of review articles and personal files. All searches are current to February 2016. We include randomised clinical trials, irrespective of publication type, publication date, and language, comparing nutrition support versus control in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk. We exclude trials assessing non-standard nutrition support. We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group. We used trial domains to assess the risks of systematic error (bias). We conducted Trial Sequential Analyses to control for the risks of random errors. We considered a P value of 0.025 or less as statistically significant. We used GRADE methodology. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, and health-related quality of life. We included 244 randomised clinical trials with 28,619 participants that met our inclusion criteria. We considered all trials to be at high risk of bias. Two trials accounted for one-third of all included participants. The included participants were heterogenous with regard to disease (20 different medical specialties). The experimental interventions were parenteral nutrition (86 trials); enteral nutrition (tube-feeding) (80 trials); oral nutrition support (55 trials); mixed experimental intervention (12 trials); general nutrition support (9 trials); and fortified food (2 trials). The control interventions were treatment as usual (122 trials); no intervention (107 trials); and placebo (15 trials). In 204/244 trials, the intervention lasted three days or more.We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for short-term mortality (end of intervention). The absolute risk was 8.3% across the control groups compared with 7.8% (7.1% to 8.5%) in the intervention groups, based on the risk ratio (RR) of 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86 to 1.03, P = 0.16, 21,758 participants, 114 trials, low quality of evidence). We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for long-term mortality (maximum follow-up). The absolute risk was 13.2% in the control group compared with 12.2% (11.6% to 13%) following nutritional interventions based on a RR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.99, P = 0.03, 23,170 participants, 127 trials, low quality of evidence). Trial Sequential Analysis showed we only had enough information to assess a risk ratio reduction of approximately 10% or more. A risk ratio reduction of 10% or more could be rejected.We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for short-term serious adverse events. The absolute risk was 9.9% in the control groups versus 9.2% (8.5% to 10%), with nutrition based on the RR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.01, P = 0.07, 22,087 participants, 123 trials, low quality of evidence). At long-term follow-up, the reduction in the risk of serious adverse events was 1.5%, from 15.2% in control groups to 13.8% (12.9% to 14.7%) following nutritional support (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.97, P = 0.004, 23,413 participants, 137 trials, low quality of evidence). However, the Trial Sequential Analysis showed we only had enough information to assess a risk ratio reduction of approximately 10% or more. A risk ratio reduction of 10% or more could be rejected.Trial Sequential Analysis of enteral nutrition alone showed that enteral nutrition might reduce serious adverse events at maximum follow-up in people with different diseases. We could find no beneficial effect of oral nutrition support or parenteral nutrition support on all-cause mortality and serious adverse events in any subgroup.Only 16 trials assessed health-related quality of life. We performed a meta-analysis of two trials reporting EuroQoL utility score at long-term follow-up and found very low quality of evidence for effects of nutritional support on quality of life (mean difference (MD) -0.01, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.01; 3961 participants, two trials). Trial Sequential Analyses showed that we did not have enough information to confirm or reject clinically relevant intervention effects on quality of life.Nutrition support may increase weight at short-term follow-up (MD 1.32 kg, 95% CI 0.65 to 2.00, 5445 participants, 68 trials, very low quality of evidence). There is low-quality evidence for the effects of nutrition support on mortality and serious adverse events. Based on the results of our review, it does not appear to lead to a risk ratio reduction of approximately 10% or more in either all-cause mortality or serious adverse events at short-term and long-term follow-up.There is very low-quality evidence for an increase in weight with nutrition support at the end of treatment in hospitalised adults determined to be at nutritional risk. The effects of nutrition support on all remaining outcomes are unclear.Despite the clinically heterogenous population and the high risk of bias of all included trials, our analyses showed limited signs of statistical heterogeneity. Further trials may be warranted, assessing enteral nutrition (tube-feeding) for different patient groups. Future trials ought to be conducted with low risks of systematic errors and low risks of random errors, and they also ought to assess health-related quality of life.

Analysis of the Fiscal Resources Supporting At-Risk Youth, Ages 13-24, in Hawaii

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silloway, Torey; Connors-Tadros, Lori; Dahlin, Melissa

2012-01-01

Hawaii's largest populations of at-risk youth include those youth who have dropped out of school, are at-risk of not completing high school, and youth who have completed school but are still not prepared for the workforce. Depending on estimates used, between 20 and 25 percent of Hawaiian youth are at risk of dropping out school. For older youth,…

Maternal social support and neighborhood income inequality as predictors of low birth weight and preterm birth outcome disparities: analysis of South Carolina Pregnancy Risk Assessment and Monitoring System survey, 2000-2003.

PubMed

Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Dhawain, Ashish; Hussey, James Robert; Luchok, Kathryn J

2010-09-01

Effects of income inequality on health and other social systems have been a subject of considerable debate, but only a few studies have used multilevel models to evaluate these relationships. The main objectives of the study were to (1) Evaluate the relationships among neighborhood income inequality, social support and birth outcomes (low birth weight, and preterm delivery) and (2) Assess variations in racial disparities in birth outcomes across neighborhood contexts of income distribution and maternal social support. We evaluated these relationships by using South Carolina Pregnancy Risk Assessment and Monitoring System (PRAMS) survey for 2000-2003 geocoded to 2000 US Census data for South Carolina. Multilevel analysis was used to simultaneously evaluate the association between income inequality (measured as Gini), maternal social relationships and birth outcomes (low birth weight and preterm delivery). The results showed residence in neighborhoods with medium levels of income inequality was independently associated with low birth weight (OR: 2.00; 95% CI 1.14-3.26), but not preterm birth; low social support was an independent risk for low birth weight or preterm births. The evidence suggests that non-Hispanic black mothers were at increased risks of low birth weight or preterm birth primarily due to greater exposures of neighborhood deprivations associated with low income and reduced social support and modified by unequal income distribution.

The Relationship between Social Support and Adolescent Dating Violence: A Comparison across Genders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richards, Tara N.; Branch, Kathryn A.

2012-01-01

Although much research has focused on the function of social support in adult intimate partner violence, little is known about the role of social support in adolescent dating violence. This study is an exploratory analysis of the independent impact of social support from friends and family on the risk of adolescent dating violence perpetration and…

Post-traumatic stress disorder status in a rescue group after the Wenchuan earthquake relief

PubMed Central

Huang, Junhua; Liu, Qunying; Li, Jinliang; Li, Xuejiang; You, Jin; Zhang, Liang; Tian, Changfu; Luan, Rongsheng

2013-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder in earthquake rescue workers is relatively high. Risk factors for this disorder include demographic characteristics, earthquake-related high-risk factors, risk factors in the rescue process, personality, social support and coping style. This study examined the current status of a unit of 1 040 rescue workers who participated in earthquake relief for the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on May 12th, 2008. Post-traumatic stress disorder was diagnosed primarily using the Clinician-Administered Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Scale during structured interviews. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to examine major risk factors that contributed to the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder. Results revealed that the incidence of this disorder in the rescue group was 5.96%. The impact factors in univariate analysis included death of family members, contact with corpses or witnessing of the deceased or seriously injured, near-death experience, severe injury or mental trauma in the rescue process and working at the epicenter of the earthquake. Correlation analysis suggested that post-traumatic stress disorder was positively correlated with psychotic and neurotic personalities, negative coping and low social support. Impact factors in multivariate logistic regression analysis included near-death experience, severe injury or mental trauma, working in the epicenter of the rescue, neurotic personality, negative coping and low social support, among which low social support had the largest odds ratio of 20.42. Findings showed that the occurrence of post-traumatic stress disorder was the result of the interaction of multiple factors. PMID:25206499

Citizen Science to Support Community-based Flood Early Warning and Resilience Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, J. D.; Buytaert, W.; Allen, S.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Bhusal, J.; Cieslik, K.; Clark, J.; Dewulf, A.; Dhital, M. R.; Hannah, D. M.; Liu, W.; Nayaval, J. L.; Schiller, A.; Smith, P. J.; Stoffel, M.; Supper, R.

2017-12-01

In Disaster Risk Management, an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments towards more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a citizen science approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for flood early warning systems. Here we present the framework and initial results of a major new international project, Landslide EVO, aimed at increasing local resilience against hydrologically induced disasters in western Nepal by exploiting participatory approaches to knowledge generation and risk governance. We identify three major technological developments that strongly support our approach to flood early warning and resilience building in Nepal. First, distributed sensor networks, participatory monitoring, and citizen science hold great promise in complementing official monitoring networks and remote sensing by generating site-specific information with local buy-in, especially in data-scarce regions. Secondly, the emergence of open source, cloud-based risk analysis platforms supports the construction of a modular, distributed, and potentially decentralised data processing workflow. Finally, linking data analysis platforms to social computer networks and ICT (e.g. mobile phones, tablets) allows tailored interfaces and people-centred decision- and policy-support systems to be built. Our proposition is that maximum impact is created if end-users are involved not only in data collection, but also over the entire project life-cycle, including the analysis and provision of results. In this context, citizen science complements more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhances multi-directional information provision, risk management, early-warning systems and local resilience building.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

Predictors and outcomes of superior mesenteric artery syndrome in patients with constipation: a prospective, nested case-control study.

PubMed

Xu, Lin; Yu, Wen-Kui; Lin, Zhi-Liang; Jiang, Jun; Feng, Xiao-Bo; Li, Ning

2014-10-01

Superior mesenteric artery (SMA) syndrome may occur in patients with constipation, whereas the association between these two distinct diseases has not been confirmed yet. We investigated the incidence, risk factors and treatment strategy associated with SMA syndrome in constipated patients. We conducted a prospective nested case-control study from a 9-year hospitalization cohort (n=973). Cases were matched to controls 1:4 on factors of age and gender. Cases developed SMA syndrome in long term follow-up (n=26) and controls did not (n=104). Independent risk factors were identified by using univariate analysis and conditional logistic regression analysis. Enteral nutritional support was applied in all cases and its curative effect was evaluated by retrospective analysis. The incidence of SMA syndrome was 2.67%. The risk factors under scrutiny were body mass index (BMI)≤18 (odds ratio (OR) 2.89, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.31) and abnormal colon transit time (OR 3.57, 95% CI 1.36 to 9.35). Twenty-two patients recovered after treatment of nutritional support, and the success rate of conservative treatment was 84.6%. BMI≤18 and prolonged colon transit time both were risk factors associated with SMA syndrome in constipated patients. Enteral nutritional support should be adopted as the first-line treatment for this condition.

Testicular cancer in twins: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Neale, R E; Carrière, P; Murphy, M F G; Baade, P D

2008-01-15

In a meta-analysis of testicular cancer in twins, twins had a 30% increased risk (estimate 1.31, 95% CI 1.1-1.6), providing indirect support for the hypothesis that in utero hormone variations influence risk of testicular cancer. The summary-estimate for dizygotic twins was 1.3 (1.0-1.7) and for monozygotic or same sex twins 1.4 (1.2-1.8).

Risk Management for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Jaeyoung; Bang, Yejin; Lee, Won Jin

2016-02-01

There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed on studies published up to March 2015 on the association between nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk. The summary standardized incidence ratio (SIR), standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effect model of meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed by study quality. Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis, covering 36 nuclear power stations in 10 countries. Overall, summary estimates showed no significant increased thyroid cancer incidence or mortality among residents living near nuclear power plants (summary SIR=0.98; 95% CI 0.87-1.11, summary SMR=0.80; 95% CI 0.62-1.04). The pooled estimates did not reveal different patterns of risk by gender, exposure definition, or reference population. However, sensitivity analysis by exposure definition showed that living less than 20 km from nuclear power plants was associated with a significant increase in the risk of thyroid cancer in well-designed studies (summary OR=1.75; 95% CI 1.17-2.64). Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well-designed future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ENHANCING STAKEHOLDER ACCEPTANCE OF BIOREMEDIATION TECHNOLOGIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Focht, Will; Albright, Matt; Anex, Robert P., Jr., ed.

2009-04-21

This project inquired into the judgments and beliefs of people living near DOE reservations and facilities at Oak Ridge, Tennessee; Hanford, Washington; and Los Alamos, Tennessee about bioremediation of subsurface contamination. The purpose of the investigation was to identify strategies based on these judgments and beliefs for enhancing public support of bioremediation. Several methods were used to collect and analyze data including content analysis of transcripts of face-to-face personal interviews, factor analysis of subjective perspectives using Q methodology, and statistical analysis of results from a large-sample randomized telephone survey. Content analysis of interview transcripts identified themes about public perceptions andmore » constructions of contamination risk, risk management, and risk managers. This analysis revealed that those who have no employment relationship at the sites and are not engaged in technical professions are most concerned about contamination risks. We also found that most interviewees are unfamiliar with subsurface contamination risks and how they can be reduced, believe they have little control over exposure, are frustrated with the lack of progress in remediation, are concerned about a lack of commitment of DOE to full remediation, and distrust site managers to act in the public interest. Concern is also expressed over frequent site management turnover, excessive secrecy, ineffective and biased communication, perceived attempts to talk the public into accepting risk, and apparent lack of concern about community welfare. In the telephone survey, we asked respondents who were aware of site contamination about their perceptions of risk from exposure to subsurface contamination. Response analysis revealed that most people believe that they are at significant risk from subsurface contamination but they acknowledge that more education is needed to calibrate risk perceptions against scientific risk assessments. Most rate their personal control over exposure as low. Slightly more than half believe that risk reduction should be balanced against cost. We also found that distrust of DOE and its contractors exists, primarily due to the perception that site managers do not share public values; hence, the public is generally unwilling to defer to DOE in its decision-making. The concomitant belief of inefficacy confounds distrust by generating frustration that DOE does not care. Moreover, the public is split with respect to trust of each other, primarily because of the belief that citizens lack technical competence. With respect to bioremediation support, we found that more than 40% of the public has no opinion. However, of those who do, 3 of 4 are favorably disposed – particularly among those who believe that risk is lower and who are more trusting of site management. We presented survey respondents with four alternative participation strategies based on the results of the Q analysis and asked their judgments of each. The public prefers strategies that shifts power to them. The least empowered strategy (feedback) was supported by 46%; support grew as public power increased, reaching 66% support for independently facilitated deliberation. More DOE distrust generates more support for high power strategies. We offer the following recommendations to enhance public acceptance. First, and perhaps most importantly, site managers should pursue robust trust-building efforts to gain public confidence in DOE risk management that meets public expectations. Public trust decreases risk perception, which increases public willingness to defer to site managers’ discretion in decision-making, which in turn increases public acceptance of the decisions that result. Second, site managers should address public concerns about bioremediation such as its effectiveness in reducing risk, performance compared to other remediation alternatives, costs compared against benefits, time required to start and complete remediation, level of risk that is currently posed by contamination, and scope of application. Third, more should be done to involve the public in bioremediation decision-making. We recommend a two-stage process: independent facilitated deliberation to build trust and address concerns about the motives and competence of site managers, followed by consultation to maintain that trust. Both stages should be inclusive, transparent, and respectful. Participation objectives and roles of participants should be well specified by the participants. A record of discussion should be published that codifies the concerns raised and how they were addressed, which will facilitate progress by averting the need to reconsider the same issues repeatedly. It is most important that the processes convince the public that its participation influences decision outcomes and that participants genuinely (informed and voluntarily) consent to risk exposure.« less

Recovery Support for Adolescents with Substance use Disorders: The Impact of Recovery Support Telephone Calls Provided by Pre-Professional Volunteers

PubMed Central

Garner, Bryan R; Godley, Mark D; Passetti, Lora L; Funk, Rodney R; White, William L

2014-01-01

The present quasi-experiment examined the direct and indirect effects of recovery support telephone calls following adolescent substance use disorder treatment. Six-month outcome data from 202 adolescents who had received recovery support calls from primarily pre-professional (i.e., college-level social service students) volunteers was compared to 6-month outcome data from a matched comparison sample of adolescents (n = 404). Results suggested adolescents in the recovery support sample had significantly greater reductions in their recovery environment risk relative to the comparison sample (β = -.17). Path analysis also suggested that the reduction in recovery environment risk produced by recovery support calls had indirect impacts (via recovery environment risk) on reductions in social risk (β = .22), substance use (β = .23), and substance-related problems (β = .16). Finally, moderation analyses suggested the effects of recovery support calls did not differ by gender, but were significantly greater for adolescents with lower levels of treatment readiness. In addition to providing rare empirical support for the effectiveness of recovery support services, an important contribution of this study is that it provides evidence that recovery support services do not necessarily have to be “peer-based,” at least in terms of the recovery support service provider having the experiential credentials of being “in recovery.” If replicated, this latter finding may have particularly important implications for helping increase the recovery support workforce. PMID:25574502

White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

PubMed

Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

2015-07-15

The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more effective risk evaluation and consideration of the risks and benefits associated with the use of chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using an Integrated, Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a numbe...

Impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors among impoverished, at-risk couples: a multilevel latent variable approach.

PubMed

Stein, Judith A; Nyamathi, Adeline; Ullman, Jodie B; Bentler, Peter M

2007-01-01

Studies among normative samples generally demonstrate a positive impact of marriage on health behaviors and other related attitudes. In this study, we examine the impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors and attitudes among impoverished, highly stressed, homeless couples, many with severe substance abuse problems. A multilevel analysis of 368 high-risk sexually intimate married and unmarried heterosexual couples assessed individual and couple-level effects on social support, substance use problems, HIV/AIDS knowledge, perceived HIV/AIDS risk, needle-sharing, condom use, multiple sex partners, and HIV/AIDS testing. More variance was explained in the protective and risk variables by couple-level latent variable predictors than by individual latent variable predictors, although some gender effects were found (e.g., more alcohol problems among men). The couple-level variable of marriage predicted lower perceived risk, less deviant social support, and fewer sex partners but predicted more needle-sharing.

Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

jones, Harry

2005-01-01

NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Testicular cancer in twins: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Neale, R E; Carrière, P; Murphy, M F G; Baade, P D

2007-01-01

In a meta-analysis of testicular cancer in twins, twins had a 30% increased risk (estimate 1.31, 95% CI 1.1–1.6), providing indirect support for the hypothesis that in utero hormone variations influence risk of testicular cancer. The summary-estimate for dizygotic twins was 1.3 (1.0–1.7) and for monozygotic or same sex twins 1.4 (1.2–1.8). PMID:18071360

Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

2013-01-01

The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City.

PubMed

Hung, Hung-Chih; Chen, Liang-Chun

2007-09-01

In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan--the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.

The Relationship between Social Support and Student Adjustment: A Longitudinal Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demaray, Michelle Kilpatrick; Malecki, Christine Kerres; Davidson, Lisa M.; Hodgson, Kelly K.; Rebus, P. Jacob

2005-01-01

This study is an examination of the relationship of perceived social support and adolescents' adjustment behaviors over time. The sample (n = 82) included students from two at-risk urban middle schools. Utilizing two measures, the Child and Adolescent Social Support Scale (CASSS; C. K. Malecki, M. K. Demaray, & S. N. Elliott, 2000) and the…

Altair Lander Life Support: Design Analysis Cycles 1, 2, and 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Molly; Rotter, Hank; Stambaugh, Imelda; Curley, Su

2009-01-01

NASA is working to develop a new lunar lander to support lunar exploration. The development process that the Altair project is using for this vehicle is unlike most others. In Lander Design Analysis Cycle 1 (LDAC-1), a single-string, minimum functionality design concept was developed, including life support systems for different vehicle configuration concepts, first for a combination of an ascent vehicle and a habitat with integral airlocks, and then for a combined ascent vehicle-habitat with a detachable airlock. In LDAC-2, the Altair team took the ascent vehicle-habitat with detachable airlock and analyzed the design for the components that were the largest contributors to the risk of loss of crew (LOC). For life support, the largest drivers were related to oxygen supply and carbon dioxide control. Integrated abort options were developed at the vehicle level. Many life support failures were not considered to result in LOC because they had a long enough time to effect that abort was considered a feasible option to safely end the mission before the situation became life threatening. These failures were then classified as loss of mission (LOM) failures. Many options to reduce LOC risk were considered, and mass efficient solutions to the LOC problems were added to the vehicle design at the end of LDAC-2. In LDAC-3, the new design was analyzed for large contributors to the risk of LOM. To avoid ending the mission early or being unable to accomplish goals like performing all planned extravehicular activities (EVAs), various options were assessed for their combination of risk reduction and mass cost. This paper outlines the major assumptions, design features, and decisions related to the development of the life support system for the Altair project through LDAC-3.

Knowledge and perceived implementation of food safety risk analysis framework in Latin America and the Caribbean region.

PubMed

Cherry, C; Mohr, A Hofelich; Lindsay, T; Diez-Gonzalez, F; Hueston, W; Sampedro, F

2014-12-01

Risk analysis is increasingly promoted as a tool to support science-based decisions regarding food safety. An online survey comprising 45 questions was used to gather information on the implementation of food safety risk analysis within the Latin American and Caribbean regions. Professionals working in food safety in academia, government, and private sectors in Latin American and Caribbean countries were contacted by email and surveyed to assess their individual knowledge of risk analysis and perceptions of its implementation in the region. From a total of 279 participants, 97% reported a familiarity with risk analysis concepts; however, fewer than 25% were able to correctly identify its key principles. The reported implementation of risk analysis among the different professional sectors was relatively low (46%). Participants from industries in countries with a long history of trade with the United States and the European Union, such as Mexico, Brazil, and Chile, reported perceptions of a higher degree of risk analysis implementation (56, 50, and 20%, respectively) than those from the rest of the countries, suggesting that commerce may be a driver for achieving higher food safety standards. Disagreement among respondents on the extent of the use of risk analysis in national food safety regulations was common, illustrating a systematic lack of understanding of the current regulatory status of the country. The results of this survey can be used to target further risk analysis training on selected sectors and countries.

Hydra: A web-based system for cardiovascular analysis, diagnosis and treatment.

PubMed

Novo, J; Hermida, A; Ortega, M; Barreira, N; Penedo, M G; López, J E; Calvo, C

2017-02-01

Cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is a highly complex process involving an extensive set of clinical trials to support the clinical decision-making process. There are many clinical conditions (e.g. diabetes, obesity, stress, etc.) that can lead to the early diagnosis or establishment of cardiovascular disease. In order to determine all these clinical conditions, a complete set of clinical patient analyses is typically performed, including a physical examination, blood analysis, electrocardiogram, blood pressure (BP) analysis, etc. This article presents a web-based system, called Hydra, which integrates a full and detailed set of services and functionalities for clinical decision support in order to help and improve the work of clinicians in cardiovascular patient diagnosis, risk assessment, treatment and monitoring over time. Hydra integrates a number of different services: a service for inputting all the information gathered by specialists (physical examination, habits, BP, blood analysis, electrocardiogram, etc.); a tool to automatically determine the CV risk stratification, including well-known standard risk stratification tables; and, finally, various tools to incorporate, analyze and graphically present the records of the ambulatory BP monitoring that provides BP analysis over a given period of time (24 or 48 hours). In addition, the platform presents a set of reports derived from all the information gathered from the patient in order to support physicians in their clinical decisions. Hydra was tested and validated in a real domain. In particular, internal medicine specialists at the Hypertension Unit of the Santiago de Compostela University Hospital (CHUS) validated the platform and used it in different clinical studies to demonstrate its utility. It was observed that the platform increased productivity and accuracy in the assessment of patient data yielding a cost reduction in clinical practice. This paper proposes a complete platform that includes different services for cardiovascular clinical decision support. It was also run as a web-based application to facilitate its use by clinicians, who can access the platform from any remote computer with Internet access. Hydra also includes different automated methods to facilitate the physicians' work and avoid potential errors in the analysis of patient data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fried food and prostate cancer risk: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lippi, Giuseppe; Mattiuzzi, Camilla

2015-01-01

We performed systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies that investigated the potential association between fried food consumption and prostate cancer risk. Four case-control studies were finally selected for this systematic literature review, totaling 2579 cancer patients and 2277 matched controls. In two of these studies, the larger intake of fried food was associated with a 1.3- to 2.3-fold increased risk of prostate cancer, no significant association was found in another, whereas an inverse relationship was observed in the remaining. The meta-analysis of published data showed that larger intake of fried food was associated with a 35% (95% CI 17-57%) increased risk of prostate cancer. The results of this systematic literature review support the notion that larger intake of fried foods may have a role in increasing the risk of prostate cancer.

An Exploratory Analysis of Unhealthy and Abusive Relationships for Adults with Serious Mental Illnesses Living in Supportive Housing.

PubMed

Forenza, Brad; Bermea, Autumn M

2017-08-01

Individuals living with serious mental illness are at high risk of chronic homelessness, victimization, and intimate partner violence. In recent years, supportive housing programs have emerged as one way to prevent homelessness and victimization for this population, while also expanding social interactions and social networks. In concert with a focal supportive housing program, this research conducted two focus groups with 18 individuals who have a serious mental illness diagnosis. The authors sought to answer the research question, "What are perceptions of healthy and unhealthy relationships among formerly homeless people with serious mental illness?" To this end, the eight-item questionnaire was created around dimensions of power and control, as well as relationship equality. Findings from an inductive thematic analysis reveal three broad families of themes (relationship ideals, lived experiences, and risk/resources in supportive housing), around which smaller themes and subthemes are organized. Implications for policy, practice, and future research are also discussed.

The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on off-shore oil platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capuano, Paolo; Basco, Anna; Di Ruocco, Angela; Esposito, Simona; Fusco, Giannetta; Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Mercogliano, Paola; Salzano, Ernesto; Solaro, Giuseppe; Teofilo, Gianvito; Scandone, Paolo; Gasparini, Paolo

2017-04-01

ARGO (Analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on off-shore oil platforms) is a 2 years project, funded by the DGS-UNMIG (Directorate General for Safety of Mining and Energy Activities - National Mining Office for Hydrocarbons and Georesources) of Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA (Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk), aims at providing technical support for the analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on offshore oil platforms. In order to achieve this challenging objective, ARGO brings together climate experts, risk management experts, seismologists, geologists, chemical engineers, earth and coastal observation experts. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore oil platforms in the Italian seas, including extreme events related to climate changes. Furthermore the environmental effect of offshore activities has been investigated, including: changes on seismicity and on the evolution of coastal areas close to offshore platforms. Then a probabilistic multi-risk framework has been developed for the analysis of NA-TECH events on offshore installations for hydrocarbon extraction.

The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

2012-04-01

The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The impact of communicating genetic risks of disease on risk-reducing health behaviour: systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hollands, Gareth J; French, David P; Griffin, Simon J; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; King, Sarah; Marteau, Theresa M

2016-03-15

To assess the impact of communicating DNA based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing health behaviours and motivation to engage in such behaviours. Systematic review with meta-analysis, using Cochrane methods. Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to 25 February 2015. Backward and forward citation searches were also conducted. Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials involving adults in which one group received personalised DNA based estimates of disease risk for conditions where risk could be reduced by behaviour change. Eligible studies included a measure of risk-reducing behaviour. We examined 10,515 abstracts and included 18 studies that reported on seven behavioural outcomes, including smoking cessation (six studies; n=2663), diet (seven studies; n=1784), and physical activity (six studies; n=1704). Meta-analysis revealed no significant effects of communicating DNA based risk estimates on smoking cessation (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.35, P=0.67), diet (standardised mean difference 0.12, 95% confidence interval -0.00 to 0.24, P=0.05), or physical activity (standardised mean difference -0.03, 95% confidence interval -0.13 to 0.08, P=0.62). There were also no effects on any other behaviours (alcohol use, medication use, sun protection behaviours, and attendance at screening or behavioural support programmes) or on motivation to change behaviour, and no adverse effects, such as depression and anxiety. Subgroup analyses provided no clear evidence that communication of a risk-conferring genotype affected behaviour more than communication of the absence of such a genotype. However, studies were predominantly at high or unclear risk of bias, and evidence was typically of low quality. Expectations that communicating DNA based risk estimates changes behaviour is not supported by existing evidence. These results do not support use of genetic testing or the search for risk-conferring gene variants for common complex diseases on the basis that they motivate risk-reducing behaviour. This is a revised and updated version of a Cochrane review from 2010, adding 11 studies to the seven previously identified. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Associations between social support and condom use among commercial sex workers in China: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Chen, Ren; Tao, Feng; Ma, Ying; Zhong, Liqin; Qin, Xia; Hu, Zhi

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between social support and AIDS high-risk behaviors in commercial sex workers (CSWs) in China. A cross-sectional study was performed based on a convenience sample. Data were collected through questionnaire interviews including information about social demographic characteristics, the Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS) and AIDS knowledge. Multiple logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between social support and AIDS high-risk behaviors, specifically condom use during commercial sex. A total of 581 commercial sex workers from 4 counties in East China participated in the study. The majority of the participants were 15 to 30 years old (79.7%). Sources of individual and family support were mainly provided by their parents (50.3%), relatives and friends (46.3%), spouses (18.4%), respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that marital status, hobbies, smoking habit, individual monthly income and family monthly income were all significantly correlated with current levels of social support being received (P = 0.04, P = 0.00, P = 0.01, P = 0.01, P = 0.01, respectively). Furthermore, Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that after adjusting for confounding factors, high levels of social support were significantly correlated with increased condom use at the last sexual encounter (P = 0.02, OR = 1.86, 95%CI: 1.10-3.16); and consistently in the past month with clients (P = 0.03, OR = 2.10, 95%CI: 1.09-4.04). CSWs with high levels of social support are more likely to use condoms during commercial sex. This suggests that increasing social support can potentially reduce AIDS-related high-risk behaviors and accordingly play an important role in AIDS prevention.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

The strategies of Japanese public health nurses in medication support for high-risk tuberculosis patients.

PubMed

Shimamura, Tamae; Taguchi, Atsuko; Kobayashi, Sayuri; Nagata, Satoko; Magilvy, Joan Kathy; Murashima, Sachiyo

2013-07-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the support provided by Japanese public health nurses (PHNs) to high-risk tuberculosis (TB) patients, focusing specifically on the support aimed at preventing interruptions in treatment. A qualitative descriptive approach was used with a convenience sample of 11 PHNs in Japan who cared for TB patients at highest risk for medication adherence problems. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to learn the scope and practice of PHNs with high-risk TB patients. Data were analyzed using a qualitative descriptive analysis process. One main theme was identified: "Supporting the patients in overcoming tuberculosis, regaining health, and living a healthier life." Three categories with five subcategories described the nurses' activities: (1) empathetic and reliable support, (2) motivational strategies for medication adherence, and (3) developing a foundation for healthier life. The nurses interviewed described creative and extraordinary strategies used to promote medication adherence and facilitate development of a healthy posttreatment lifestyle. Their approach was patient-centered and culturally congruent. Findings may be transferrable to PHN practice in other regions as care for this economically disadvantaged and marginalized population is a critical need. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Remote Sensing Technologies and Geospatial Modelling Hierarchy for Smart City Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popov, M.; Fedorovsky, O.; Stankevich, S.; Filipovich, V.; Khyzhniak, A.; Piestova, I.; Lubskyi, M.; Svideniuk, M.

2017-12-01

The approach to implementing the remote sensing technologies and geospatial modelling for smart city support is presented. The hierarchical structure and basic components of the smart city information support subsystem are considered. Some of the already available useful practical developments are described. These include city land use planning, urban vegetation analysis, thermal condition forecasting, geohazard detection, flooding risk assessment. Remote sensing data fusion approach for comprehensive geospatial analysis is discussed. Long-term city development forecasting by Forrester - Graham system dynamics model is provided over Kiev urban area.

Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications 6.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2015-10-19

Sandia's Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to: (1) enhance understanding of risk, (2) improve products, and (3) assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a computational model. However, Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verificationmore » and validation activities. The algorithms implemented in Dakota aim to address challenges in performing these analyses with complex science and engineering models from desktop to high performance computers.« less

Comparison of Traditional and Trial-Based Methodologies for Conducting Functional Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LaRue, Robert H.; Lenard, Karen; Weiss, Mary Jane; Bamond, Meredith; Palmieri, Mark; Kelley, Michael E.

2010-01-01

Functional analysis represents a sophisticated and empirically supported functional assessment procedure. While these procedures have garnered considerable empirical support, they are often underused in clinical practice. Safety risks resulting from the evocation of maladaptive behavior and the length of time required to conduct functional…

Guidelines for Automatic Data Processing Physical Security and Risk Management. Federal Information Processing Standards Publication 31.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Bureau of Standards (DOC), Washington, DC.

These guidelines provide a handbook for use by federal organizations in structuring physical security and risk management programs for their automatic data processing facilities. This publication discusses security analysis, natural disasters, supporting utilities, system reliability, procedural measures and controls, off-site facilities,…

Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: Implications for Human Health Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The risk analysis perspective by Daniel Krewski and colleagues lays out the long-term vision and strategic plan developed by a National Research Council committee (1), sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with support from the U.S. National Toxicology Progr...

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

2014-03-25

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring risk factors associated with intimate partner violence in Vietnam: results from a cross-sectional national survey.

PubMed

Jansen, Henrica A F M; Nguyen, Thi Viet Nga; Hoang, Tu Anh

2016-11-01

Empirical evidence documents that some risk factors for intimate partner violence (IPV) are similar across contexts, while others differ considerably. In Vietnam, there was a need to investigate risk factors for IPV to support evidence-based policy and programming. Using the dataset gathered in the 2010 National Study on Domestic Violence against Women, forty variables were explored in logistic regression analysis, including socio-demographic characteristics of women and their husbands, other experiences with violence, husband's behaviours, family support, and context-specific variables such as the sex of their children. Fifteen independent factors remained strongly associated with IPV. Significant risk was associated with husbands' behaviour that supports male power (extra-marital relationships; fighting with other men) and alcohol use. Violence experienced in childhood increased the likelihood of women experiencing and of men perpetrating IPV. Notable was further the association with women's higher financial contribution to the household and lack of association with not having sons. The findings support theories describing how underlying gender and power imbalance are fundamental causes of IPV and indicate the need for context-specific interventions.

[Prevalence and risk factors of postpartum depression in Tianhe District of Guangzhou].

PubMed

Deng, Aiwen; Jiang, Tingting; Luo, Yingping; Xiong, Ribo

2014-01-01

To investigate the prevalence and risk factors of postpartum depression (PPD) in Tianhe district of Guangzhou. A total of 1428 postpartum women in 3 hospitals in Tianhe District of Guangzhou were screened with Edinburg Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS) and a self-designed questionnaire of PPD-related factors during the period from May to September, 2013. The prevalence of PPD was 20.03% in these women. Unconditional logistic regression analysis showed a significant correlation of PPD with education, delivery mode, only daughter, relationship between mother-in-law and daughter-in-law, newborn gender satisfaction and housing condition (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified education, delivery mode, only daughter, relationship between mother-in-law and daughter-in-law, and newborn gender satisfaction as the risk factors for PPD, and housing condition was negatively correlated with the incidence of PPD with an OR value of 0.900. Compared with healthy postpartum women, the patients with PPD exhibited significantly reduced total score of social support rating scale, score of objective support, score of subjective support, and social utilization degree. The prevalence of PPD is high in Tianhe District of Guangzhou, and health education and psychosocial intervention should be offered to prevent PPD.

Fall Risk, Supports and Services, and Falls Following a Nursing Home Discharge.

PubMed

Noureldin, Marwa; Hass, Zachary; Abrahamson, Kathleen; Arling, Greg

2017-09-04

Falls are a major source of morbidity and mortality among older adults; however, little is known regarding fall occurrence during a nursing home (NH) to community transition. This study sought to examine whether the presence of supports and services impacts the relationship between fall-related risk factors and fall occurrence post NH discharge. Participants in the Minnesota Return to Community Initiative who were assisted in achieving a community discharge (N = 1459) comprised the study sample. The main outcome was fall occurrence within 30 days of discharge. Factor analyses were used to estimate latent models from variables of interest. A structural equation model (SEM) was estimated to determine the relationship between the emerging latent variables and falls. Fifteen percent of participants fell within 30 days of NH discharge. Factor analysis of fall-related risk factors produced three latent variables: fall concerns/history; activities of daily living impairments; and use of high-risk medications. A supports/services latent variable also emerged that included caregiver support frequency, medication management assistance, durable medical equipment use, discharge location, and receipt of home health or skilled nursing services. In the SEM model, high-risk medications use and fall concerns/history had direct positive effects on falling. Receiving supports/services did not affect falling directly; however, it reduced the effect of high-risk medication use on falling (p < .05). Within the context of a state-implemented transition program, findings highlight the importance of supports/services in mitigating against medication-related risk of falling post NH discharge. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

2011-12-01

Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

Exploration Laboratory Analysis - ARC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krihak, Michael K.; Fung, Paul P.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Laboratory Analysis (ELA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk, Risk of Inability to Adequately Treat an Ill or Injured Crew Member, and ExMC Gap 4.05: Lack of minimally invasive in-flight laboratory capabilities with limited consumables required for diagnosing identified Exploration Medical Conditions. To mitigate this risk, the availability of inflight laboratory analysis instrumentation has been identified as an essential capability in future exploration missions. Mission architecture poses constraints on equipment and procedures that will be available to treat evidence-based medical conditions according to the Space Medicine Exploration Medical Conditions List (SMEMCL). The SMEMCL provided diagnosis and treatment for the evidence-based medical conditions and hence, a basis for developing ELA functional requirements.

Risk Analysis of Return Support Material on Gas Compressor Platform Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvianita; Aulia, B. U.; Khakim, M. L. N.; Rosyid, Daniel M.

2017-07-01

On a fixed platforms project are not only carried out by a contractor, but two or more contractors. Cooperation in the construction of fixed platforms is often not according to plan, it is caused by several factors. It takes a good synergy between the contractor to avoid miss communication may cause problems on the project. For the example is about support material (sea fastening, skid shoe and shipping support) used in the process of sending a jacket structure to operation place often does not return to the contractor. It needs a systematic method to overcome the problem of support material. This paper analyses the causes and effects of GAS Compressor Platform that support material is not return, using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). From fault tree analysis, the probability of top event is 0.7783. From event tree analysis diagram, the contractors lose Rp.350.000.000, - to Rp.10.000.000.000, -.

Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R21 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

Cancer.gov

This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R01 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

Cancer.gov

This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

Visual Decision Support Tool for Supporting Asset Management Performance, Risk, and Cost Analysis (WERF Report INFR5R12)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract:Managing urban water infrastructures faces the challenge of jointly dealing with assets of diverse types, useful life, cost, ages and condition. Service quality and sustainability require sound long-term planning, well aligned with tactical and operational planning and m...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: Publishing a Microbial Density Time Series as a Txt File

EPA Science Inventory

A SARA Timeseries Utility supports analysis and management of time-varying environmental data including listing, graphing, computing statistics, computing meteorological data and saving in a WDM or text file. File formats supported include WDM, HSPF Binary (.hbn), USGS RDB, and T...

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Advancements in Risk-Informed Performance-Based Asset Management for Commercial Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liming, James K.; Ravindra, Mayasandra K.

2006-07-01

Over the past several years, ABSG Consulting Inc. (ABS Consulting) and the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) have developed a decision support process and associated software for risk-informed, performance-based asset management (RIPBAM) of nuclear power plant facilities. RIPBAM applies probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools and techniques in the realm of plant physical and financial asset management. The RIPBAM process applies a tiered set of models and supporting performance measures (or metrics) that can ultimately be applied to support decisions affecting the allocation and management of plant resources (e.g., funding, staffing, scheduling, etc.). In general, the ultimate goal ofmore » the RIPBAM process is to continually support decision-making to maximize a facility's net present value (NPV) and long-term profitability for its owners. While the initial applications of RIPBAM have been for nuclear power stations, the methodology can easily be adapted to other types of power station or complex facility decision-making support. RIPBAM can also be designed to focus on performance metrics other than NPV and profitability (e.g., mission reliability, operational availability, probability of mission success per dollar invested, etc.). Recent advancements in the RIPBAM process focus on expanding the scope of previous RIPBAM applications to include not only operations, maintenance, and safety issues, but also broader risk perception components affecting plant owner (stockholder), operator, and regulator biases. Conceptually, RIPBAM is a comprehensive risk-informed cash flow model for decision support. It originated as a tool to help manage plant refueling outage scheduling, and was later expanded to include the full spectrum of operations and maintenance decision support. However, it differs from conventional business modeling tools in that it employs a systems engineering approach with broadly based probabilistic analysis of organizational 'value streams'. The scope of value stream inclusion in the process can be established by the user, but in its broadest applications, RIPBAM can be used to address how risk perceptions of plant owners and regulators are impacted by plant performance. Plant staffs can expand and refine RIPBAM models scope via a phased program of activities over time. This paper shows how the multi-metric uncertainty analysis feature of RIPBAM can apply a wide spectrum of decision-influencing factors to support decisions designed to maximize the probability of achieving, maintaining, and improving upon plant goals and objectives. In this paper, the authors show how this approach can be extremely valuable to plant owners and operators in supporting plant value-impacting decision-making processes. (authors)« less

Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

2014-05-01

The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located in the Cinque Terre National Park, characterized by a high landslide susceptibility and low resilience, being highly vulnerable to landslides induced by heavy rainfall. The landslide risk impact analysis will be calibrated taking into account the socio-economic damage caused by landslides triggered by the October 2011 meteorological event. Most of landslides affected the diffuse system of anthropogenic terraces and caused the direct disruption of the walls as well as transportation of a large amount of loose sediments along the slopes and channels as induced consequence of the event. The final target of the landslide risk assessment scenario will be to improve the knowledge and awareness on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and landslide risk in the Cinque Terre National Park to the benefit of local authorities and population. In addition, the results of the application can have a practical and positive effects for i.e. i) updating the land planning process in order to improve the resilience of local communities, ii) implementing preliminary cost-benefit analysis aimed at the definition of guidelines for sustainable landslide risk mitigation strategies, iii) suggesting a general road map for the implementation of a local adaptation plan.

Long-term psychosocial work environment and cardiovascular mortality among Swedish men.

PubMed Central

Johnson, J V; Stewart, W; Hall, E M; Fredlund, P; Theorell, T

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES. This study examined the effect of cumulative exposure to work organization--psychological demands, work control, and social support on prospectively measured cardiovascular disease mortality risk. METHODS. The source population was a national sample of 12517 subjects selected from the Swedish male population by Statistics Sweden in annual surveys between 1977 and 1981. Over a 14-year follow-up period, 521 deaths from cardiovascular disease were identified. A nested case-control design was used. Work environment exposure scores were assigned to cases and controls by linking lifetime job histories with a job exposure matrix. RESULTS. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used in examining cardiovascular mortality risk in relation to work exposure after adjustment for age, year last employed, smoking, exercise, education, social class, nationality, and physical job demands. In the final multi-variable analysis, workers with low work control had a relative risk of 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19, 2.82) for cardiovascular mortality. Workers with combined exposure to low control and low support had a relative risk of 2.62 (95% CI=1.22, 5.61). CONCLUSIONS. These results indicate that long-term exposure to low work control is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease mortality. PMID:8604756

The effects of cumulative risks and promotive factors on urban adolescent alcohol and other drug use: a longitudinal study of resiliency.

PubMed

Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Zimmerman, Marc A

2006-12-01

Resiliency theory provides a conceptual framework for studying why some youth exposed to risk factors do not develop the negative behaviors they predict. The purpose of this study was to test compensatory and protective models of resiliency in a longitudinal sample of urban adolescents (80% African American). The data were from Years 1 (9th grade) and 4 (12th grade). The study examined effects of cumulative risk and promotive factors on adolescent polydrug use including alcohol, tobacco and marijuana. Cumulative measures of risk/promotive factors represented individual characteristics, peer influence, and parental/familial influences. After controlling for demographics, results of multiple regression of polydrug use support the compensatory model of resiliency both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Promotive factors were also found to have compensatory effects on change in adolescent polydrug use. The protective model of resiliency evidenced cross-sectionally was not supported in longitudinal analysis. The findings support resiliency theory and the use of cumulative risk/promotive measures in resiliency research. Implications focused on utilizing multiple assets and resources in prevention programming are discussed.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

2015-01-01

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Gian Porro | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies ProgramPDF. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy analysis and planning activities (PAE Hub) Research Interests Analytical support to Geothermal Technologies Program, including assessment of the competitiveness of geothermal electricity generation Investigation of

Quantification and site-specification of the support practice factor when mapping soil erosion risk associated with olive plantations in the Mediterranean island of Crete.

PubMed

Karydas, Christos G; Sekuloska, Tijana; Silleos, Georgios N

2009-02-01

Due to inappropriate agricultural management practices, soil erosion is becoming one of the most dangerous forms of soil degradation in many olive farming areas in the Mediterranean region, leading to significant decrease of soil fertility and yield. In order to prevent further soil degradation, proper measures are necessary to be locally implemented. In this perspective, an increase in the spatial accuracy of remote sensing datasets and advanced image analysis are significant tools necessary and efficient for mapping soil erosion risk on a fine scale. In this study, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was implemented in the spatial domain using GIS, while a very high resolution satellite image, namely a QuickBird image, was used for deriving cover management (C) and support practice (P) factors, in order to map the risk of soil erosion in Kolymvari, a typical olive farming area in the island of Crete, Greece. The results comprised a risk map of soil erosion when P factor was taken uniform (conventional approach) and a risk map when P factor was quantified site-specifically using object-oriented image analysis. The results showed that the QuickBird image was necessary in order to achieve site-specificity of the P factor and therefore to support fine scale mapping of soil erosion risk in an olive cultivation area, such as the one of Kolymvari in Crete. Increasing the accuracy of the QB image classification will further improve the resulted soil erosion mapping.

Perceived risks around choice and decision making at end-of-life: a literature review.

PubMed

Wilson, F; Gott, M; Ingleton, C

2013-01-01

the World Health Organization identifies meeting patient choice for care as central to effective palliative care delivery. Little is known about how choice, which implies an objective balancing of options and risks, is understood and enacted through decision making at end-of-life. to explore how perceptions of 'risk' may inform decision-making processes at end-of-life. an integrative literature review was conducted between January and February 2010. Papers were reviewed using Hawker et al.'s criteria and evaluated according to clarity of methods, analysis and evidence of ethical consideration. All literature was retained as background data, but given the significant international heterogeneity the final analysis specifically focused on the UK context. the databases Medline, PsycINFO, Assia, British Nursing Index, High Wire Press and CINAHL were explored using the search terms decision*, risk, anxiety, hospice and palliative care, end-of-life care and publication date of 1998-2010. thematic analysis of 25 papers suggests that decision making at end-of-life is multifactorial, involving a balancing of risks related to caregiver support; service provider resources; health inequalities and access; challenges to information giving; and perceptions of self-identity. Overall there is a dissonance in understandings of choice and decision making between service providers and service users. the concept of risk acknowledges the factors that shape and constrain end-of-life choices. Recognition of perceived risks as a central factor in decision making would be of value in acknowledging and supporting meaningful decision making processes for patients with palliative care needs and their families.

Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2016-01-01

Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

An Analysis of Leadership Teams' Perceptions of Positive Behavior Support and the Outcomes of Typically Developing and At-Risk Students in Their Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheney, Douglas; Blum, Craig; Walker, Bridget

2004-01-01

Positive behavioral supports (PBS) have been receiving increased visibility and use in schools nationally. In the state of Washington, schoolwide and individualized positive behavioral supports were recommended as a model for schools by the state agencies of education and human service in 1999. Since then, four demonstration schools have been…

Duty of care and autonomy: how support workers managed the tension between protecting service users from risk and promoting their independence in a specialist group home.

PubMed

Hawkins, R; Redley, M; Holland, A J

2011-09-01

In the UK those paid to support adults with intellectual disabilities must manage two potentially conflicting duties that are set out in policy documents as being vital to their role: protecting service users (their duty of care) and recognising service users' autonomy. This study focuses specifically on the support of people with the genetically determined condition, Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS). Due to the behaviours associated with PWS, the support of this group of people vividly illustrates the tension between respect for autonomy and duty of care. This article explores how support workers working in a residential group home managed their competing duties of managing risk and promoting independence in practice. An ethnographic study, comprising of qualitative observations, semi-structured interviews and documentary analysis, was undertaken to investigate the work of support workers in a UK residential group home specialising in the support of adults diagnosed with PWS. The study focused on how support workers attempted to reconcile the tension between protecting service users from the risks associated with the syndrome and acknowledging service users' autonomy by enabling independence. Findings demonstrate that risk was central to the structure of care delivery at the group home and support workers often adhered to standardised risk management procedures. The organisation also required support workers to promote service users' independence and many thought acknowledging service users' autonomy through the promotion of their independence was important. To manage tensions between their differing duties, some support workers deviated from standardised risk management procedures to allow service users a degree of independence. There is a tension between the duty of care and the duty to recognise autonomy at the level of service delivery in residential homes. Support workers attempt to manage this tension; however, further work needs to be done by both residential services and policy makers to facilitate the reconciliation of the duty of care with the duty to recognise service users' autonomy in practice. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Intellectual Disability Research © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

PubMed

Dawson, Ian G J

2018-05-16

The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Classroom Practices and Academic Outcomes in Urban Afterschool Programs: Alleviating Social-Behavioral Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cappella, Elise; Hwang, Sophia H. J.; Kieffer, Michael J.; Yates, Miranda

2018-01-01

Given the potential of afterschool programs to support youth in urban, low-income communities, we examined the role of afterschool classroom ecology in the academic outcomes of Latino and African American youth with and without social-behavioral risk. Using multireporter methods and multilevel analysis, we find that positive classroom ecology…

Disentangling the influence of value predispositions and risk/benefit perceptions on support for nanotechnology among the American public.

PubMed

Kim, Jiyoun; Yeo, Sara K; Brossard, Dominique; Scheufele, Dietram A; Xenos, Michael A

2014-05-01

Using nanotechnology as a case study, this article explores (1) how people's perceptions of benefits and risks are related to their approval of nanotechnology, (2) which information-processing factors contribute to public risk/benefit perceptions, and (3) whether individuals' predispositions (i.e., deference to scientific authority and ideology) may moderate the relationship between cognitive processing and risk perceptions of the technology. Results indicate that benefit perceptions positively affect public support for nanotechnology; perceptions of risk tend to be more influenced by systematic processing than by heuristic cues, whereas both heuristic and systematic processing influence benefit perceptions. People who are more liberal-minded tend to be more affected by systematic processing when thinking about the benefits of nanotechnology than those who are more conservative. Compared to less deferent individuals, those who are more deferent to scientific authority tend to be less influenced by systematic processing when making judgments about the benefits and risks of nanotechnology. Implications are discussed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Emerging Tools to Estimate and to Predict Exposures to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The timely assessment of the human and ecological risk posed by thousands of existing and emerging commercial chemicals is a critical challenge facing EPA in its mission to protect public health and the environment The US EPA has been conducting research to enhance methods used to estimate and forecast exposures for tens of thousands of chemicals. This research is aimed at both assessing risks and supporting life cycle analysis, by developing new models and tools for high throughput exposure screening and prioritization, as well as databases that support these and other tools, especially regarding consumer products. The models and data address usage, and take advantage of quantitative structural activity relationships (QSARs) for both inherent chemical properties and function (why the chemical is a product ingredient). To make them more useful and widely available, the new tools, data and models are designed to be: • Flexible • Intraoperative • Modular (useful to more than one, stand-alone application) • Open (publicly available software) Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Forum: Risk Governance for Key Enabling Technologies, Venice, Italy, March 1-3, 2017

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

An analysis of benefits and risk information on pharmaceutical web sites for the treatment of menopause.

PubMed

Charbonneau, Deborah H

2013-09-01

As the Internet is a source of information for many health consumers, there is a need to evaluate the information about prescription drugs provided on pharmaceutical manufacturers' web sites. Using a sample of pharmaceutical manufacturers' web sites for the treatment of menopause, the main objective of this study was to evaluate consumer-oriented information about benefits and risks of prescription drugs for the treatment of menopause provided on pharmaceutical web sites. Pharmaceutical manufacturers' web sites for analysis were identified using a list of U.S. FDA-approved hormone therapies for the treatment of menopause. This study revealed substantial gaps in how benefits and risk information were presented on the web sites. Specifically, information about the benefits was prominent while risk information was incomplete and challenging to find. Further, references to the scientific literature to support claims advertised about prescription drug benefits were not provided. Given the lack of scientific evidence to support claims of benefits and limited disclosure about risks, more information is needed for consumers to be able to weigh the benefits and risks of these treatments for menopause. Overall, these findings provide guidance for evaluating drug information provided on pharmaceutical web sites. © 2013 The author. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

Information support of monitoring of technical condition of buildings in construction risk area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skachkova, M. E.; Lepihina, O. Y.; Ignatova, V. V.

2018-05-01

The paper presents the results of the research devoted to the development of a model of information support of monitoring buildings technical condition; these buildings are located in the construction risk area. As a result of the visual and instrumental survey, as well as the analysis of existing approaches and techniques, attributive and cartographic databases have been created. These databases allow monitoring defects and damages of buildings located in a 30-meter risk area from the object under construction. The classification of structures and defects of these buildings under survey is presented. The functional capabilities of the developed model and the field of it practical applications are determined.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

2011-05-30

Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk analysis of information security in a mobile instant messaging and presence system for healthcare.

PubMed

Bønes, Erlend; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva; Strandenaes, Thomas

2007-09-01

Instant messaging (IM) is suited for immediate communication because messages are delivered almost in real time. Results from studies of IM use in enterprise work settings make us believe that IM based services may prove useful also within the healthcare sector. However, today's public instant messaging services do not have the level of information security required for adoption of IM in healthcare. We proposed MedIMob, our own architecture for a secure enterprise IM service for use in healthcare. MedIMob supports IM clients on mobile devices in addition to desktop based clients. Security threats were identified in a risk analysis of the MedIMob architecture. The risk analysis process consists of context identification, threat identification, analysis of consequences and likelihood, risk evaluation, and proposals for risk treatment. The risk analysis revealed a number of potential threats to the information security of a service like this. Many of the identified threats are general when dealing with mobile devices and sensitive data; others are threats which are more specific to our service and architecture. Individual threats identified in the risks analysis are discussed and possible counter measures presented. The risk analysis showed that most of the proposed risk treatment measures must be implemented to obtain an acceptable risk level; among others blocking much of the additional functionality of the smartphone. To conclude on the usefulness of this IM service, it will be evaluated in a trial study of the human-computer interaction. Further work also includes an improved design of the proposed MedIMob architecture. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd

Circulating levels of C-reactive protein, interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α and risk of colorectal adenomas: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoqian; Liu, Shanglong; Zhou, Yanbing

2016-09-27

Results from publications on inflammatory markers of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and risk of colorectal adenomas are not consistent. A meta-analysis was conducted to explore the above-mentioned associations. Relevant studies were identified by a search of Embase, Medline and PubMed through February 2016. A random effect model was adopted to combine study-specific odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Between-study heterogeneity and publications bias were assessed. Dose-response relationships were assessed by restricted cubic splines. Nineteen observational studies were included. For highest vs. lowest levels, results from this meta-analysis did not support an association between circulating levels of CRP [OR (95% CI): 1.15 (0.94-1.40)], IL-6 [1.17 (0.94-1.46)] and TNF-α [0.99 (0.75-1.31)] and risk of colorectal adenomas, respectively. The findings were supported by sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis. In dose-response analysis, the risk of colorectal adenomas increased by 2% [1.02 (0.97-1.08)] for each 1 mg/L increment in circulation CRP levels, 9% [1.09 (0.91-1.31)] for each 1 ng/L increment in circulation IL-6 levels, and 6% [1.06 (0.93-1.21)] for each 1 pg/mL increment in circulation TNF-α levels. Moderate between-study heterogeneity was found. No evidence of publication bias was found. Circulation levels of CRP, IL-6 and TNF-α might be not useful biomarkers for identifying colorectal adenomas, respectively.

'I should have taken that further' - missed opportunities during cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with psoriasis in UK primary care settings: a mixed-methods study.

PubMed

Nelson, Pauline A; Kane, Karen; Chisholm, Anna; Pearce, Christina J; Keyworth, Christopher; Rutter, Martin K; Chew-Graham, Carolyn A; Griffiths, Christopher E M; Cordingley, Lis

2016-10-01

Unhealthy lifestyle is common in psoriasis, contributing to worsening disease and increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. CVD risk communication should improve patients' understanding of risk and risk-reducing behaviours; however, the effectiveness of risk screening is debated and evaluation currently limited. To examine the process of assessing for and communicating about CVD risk in the context of psoriasis. Mixed-methods study in English general practices to (i) determine proportions of CVD risk factors among patients with psoriasis at risk assessment and (ii) examine patient and practitioner experiences of risk communication to identify salient 'process' issues. Audio recordings of consultations informed in-depth interviews with patients and practitioners using tape-assisted recall, analysed with framework analysis. Patients with psoriasis (n = 287) undergoing CVD risk assessment; 29 patients and 12 practitioners interviewed. A high proportion of patients had risk factor levels apparent at risk assessment above NICE recommendations: very high waist circumference (52%), obesity (35%), raised blood pressure (29%), smoking (18%) and excess alcohol consumption (18%). There was little evidence of personalized discussion about CVD risk and behaviour change support in consultations. Professionals reported a lack of training in behaviour change, while patients wanted to discuss CVD risk/risk reduction and believed practitioners to be influential in supporting lifestyle management. Despite high levels of risk factors identified, opportunities may be missed in consultations to support patients with psoriasis to understand CVD risk/risk reduction. Practitioners need training in behaviour change techniques to capitalize on 'teachable moments' and increase the effectiveness of risk screening. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sbexpert users guide (version 1.0): A knowledge-based decision-support system for spruce beetle management. Forest Service general technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, K.M.; Holsten, E.H.; Werner, R.A.

1995-03-01

SBexpert version 1.0 is a knowledge-based decision-support system for management of spruce beetle developed for use in Microsoft Windows. The users guide provides detailed instructions on the use of all SBexpert features. SBexpert has four main subprograms; introduction, analysis, textbook, and literature. The introduction is the first of the five subtopics in the SBexpert help system. The analysis topic is an advisory system for spruce beetle management that provides recommendation for reducing spruce beetle hazard and risk to spruce stands and is the main analytical topic in SBexpert. The textbook and literature topics provide complementary decision support for analysis.

Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Duffy, J C

1995-02-01

Prospective studies of alcohol and mortality in middle-aged men almost universally find a U-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality. This review demonstrates the extent to which different studies lead to different risk estimates, analyses the putative influence of abstention as a risk factor and uses available data to produce point and interval estimates of the consumption level apparently associated with minimum risk from two studies in the UK. Data from a number of studies are analysed by means of logistic-linear modelling, taking account of the possible influence of abstention as a special risk factor. Separate analysis of British data is performed. Logistic-linear modelling demonstrates large and highly significant differences between the studies considered in the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. The results support the identification of abstention as a special risk factor for mortality, but do not indicate that this alone explains the apparent U-shaped relationship. Separate analysis of two British studies indicates minimum risk of mortality in this population at a consumption level of about 26 (8.5 g) units of alcohol per week. The analysis supports the view that abstention may be a specific risk factor for all-cause mortality, but is not an adequate explanation of the apparent protective effect of alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality. Future analyses might better be performed on a case-by-case basis, using a change-point model to estimate the parameters of the relationship. The current misinterpretation of the sensible drinking level of 21 units per week for men in the UK as a limit is not justified, and the data suggest that alcohol consumption is a net preventive factor against premature death in this population.

5,10-Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase polymorphisms and acute lymphoblastic leukemia risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pereira, Tiago Veiga; Rudnicki, Martina; Pereira, Alexandre Costa; Pombo-de-Oliveira, Maria S; Franco, Rendrik França

2006-10-01

There is evidence supporting a role for 5-10 methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene variants in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). To provide a more robust estimate of the effect of MTHFR polymorphisms on the risk of ALL, we did a meta-analysis to reevaluate the association between the two most commonly studied MTHFR polymorphisms (C677T and A1298C) and ALL risk. All case-control studies investigating an association between the C677T or A1298C polymorphisms and risk of ALL were included. We applied both fixed-effects and random-effects models to combine odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Q-statistic was used to evaluate the homogeneity and both Egger and Begg-Mazumdar tests were used to assess publication bias. The meta-analysis of the C677T polymorphism and risk of childhood ALL included 13 studies with a total of 4,894 individuals. Under a fixed-effects model, the TT genotype failed to be associated with a statistically significant reduction of childhood ALL risk (TT versus CT + CC: OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.73-1.06; P = 0.18). However, individuals homozygous for the 677T allele exhibited a 2.2-fold decrease in risk of adult ALL (TT versus CT + CC: OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.26-0.77; P = 0.004). In both cases, no evidence of heterogeneity was observed. No association between the A1298C variant and susceptibility to both adult and childhood ALL was disclosed. Our findings support the proposal that the common genetic C677T polymorphism in the MTHFR contributes to the risk of adult ALL, but not to the childhood ALL susceptibility.

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Communicating Zika Risk: Using Metaphor to Increase Perceived Risk Susceptibility.

PubMed

Lu, Hang; Schuldt, Jonathon P

2018-02-27

Effectively communicating the risks associated with emerging zoonotic diseases remains an important challenge. Drawing on research into the psychological effects of metaphoric framing, we explore the conditions under which exposure to the "nation as a body" metaphor influences perceived risk susceptibility, behavioral intentions, and policy support in the context of Zika virus. In a between-subjects experiment, 354 U.S. adults were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions as part of a 2 (severity message: high vs. low) × 2 (U.S. framing: metaphoric vs. literal) design. Results revealed an interaction effect such that metaphoric (vs. literal) framing increased perceived risk susceptibility in the high-severity condition only. Further analyses revealed that perceived risk susceptibility and negative affect mediated the path between the two-way interaction and policy support and behavioral intentions regarding Zika prevention. Overall, these findings complement prior work on the influence of metaphoric framing on risk perceptions, while offering practical insights for risk communicators seeking to communicate about Zika and other zoonotic diseases. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

2010-01-01

NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

[Predictors of institutionalization of elderly persons in dependency situation in Andalusia].

PubMed

Pinzón-Pulido, Sandra; Garrido Peña, Francisco; Reyes Alcázar, Víctor; Lima-Rodríguez, Joaquín Salvador; Raposo Triano, María Fernanda; Martínez Domene, Manuel; Alonso Trujillo, Federico

2016-01-01

Identifying preferences regarding type of care and risk factors for institutionalization of elderly persons in dependency situations in Andalusia. The data on 200,039 persons registered in the System for Autonomy and Dependency Care over the period 2007-2012 were analysed. The study population was described in terms of: age, dependency situation, preferences, support network and clinical factors at the time of inclusion in the study. Separate analysis was made for men and women. A logistic regression model was designed to determine the risk factors for institutionalization for each sex. 87,4% of women and 85,9% of men expressed their wish to receive care in their own home. The risk of institutionalization is three times higher among men than among women. Among women, the risks of institutionalization are: level of dependency, wishing to move into a residential care home, medium consistency and fragility of support network and being diagnosed with dementia. Among men, the risks are: wishing to move into a residential care home and low or medium consistency of support network. Care in the home is the preferred alternative for elderly persons in dependency situations. The risk of institutionalization is conditioned more by the preferences of the person and their family and the characteristics of the support network than by individual's clinical condition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Should Health Care Organizations Use Information Gleaned from Organization-Sponsored Patient Support Groups in Strategic Planning?

PubMed

Nambisan, Priya

2017-11-01

Online forums and partnerships with patients have several benefits, such as the creation of new products and services. However, as with any such initiatives, there are risks as well as benefits. Through analysis of a case of misinformation being spread through a health care provider-sponsored online support group for patients dealing with obesity, this article outlines best practices and strategies to deploy in such organization-sponsored patient support groups. These strategies would enable organizations and patients to use such forums to the fullest extent while preventing or managing their potential risks as best as possible. © 2017 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved.

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shropshire, D.E.

1997-10-01

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs,more » or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years.« less

Path Analysis Associations Between Perceived Social Support, Stressful Life Events and Other Psychosocial Risk Factors During Pregnancy and Preterm Delivery

PubMed Central

Mirabzadeh, Arash; Dolatian, Mahrokh; Forouzan, Ameneh Setare; Sajjadi, Homeira; Majd, Hamid Alavi; Mahmoodi, Zohreh

2013-01-01

Background Although several socio-medical risk factors have been identified for preterm labor, there is a gap in understanding the underlying etiology of preterm labor. Objectives The current study aimed to analyze the relationship pathway of perceived social support, stressful life events, and other psychosocial risk factors during pregnancy with incidence of preterm labor. Materials and Methods In a prospective cohort study in four hospitals in Tehran, 500 pregnant women in their 24th to 28th gestational weeks were studied. They filled out a self-report questionnaire on perceived social support, depression, anxiety, stress and stressful life events. Sociodemographic characteristics were also assessed. The participants were followed up until labor, and the data about mother and the newborn were collected after labor. The data were analyzed by SPSS 16 and Lisrel 8.8 software programs using pathway analysis. Results The final path model fit well (CFI = 0.96; RMSEA = .064). The results showed that depression, anxiety, and stress (β = -0.18) directly, and stressful life events indirectly (β= -0.0396) had the most predict on gestational age at labor. Perceived social support, directly through socioeconomic status (β=0.25), and indirectly through stress, depression and anxiety (β= -0.26) affected the gestational age at birth (β= 0.0468). Conclusions The current study showed that supporting pregnant mother moderates psychological problems such as stress, anxiety, and depression, and hence reduces preterm labor. PMID:24349750

The impact of the experience of childhood poverty on adult health-risk behaviors in Japan: a mediation analysis.

PubMed

Umeda, Maki; Oshio, Takashi; Fujii, Mayu

2015-12-09

The experience of childhood poverty has a long-lasting, adverse impact on physical health outcomes in adulthood. We examined the mediating effects of adult socioeconomic status (SES) and social support on the association between childhood poverty and adult health-risk behaviors. Cross-sectional data collected from Japanese community residents (N = 3836) were used. A binary indicator of the experience of childhood poverty was constructed by utilizing retrospectively assessed standard of living at age 15 and a set of parental SES variables. The associations of childhood poverty with smoking, lack of exercise, poor dietary habits, and excessive drinking at the time of survey were examined by logistic regression analysis. A mediation analysis was conducted to estimate the magnitudes of the mediating effects of adult SES and social support on these associations. Adult SES and social support together mediated 64.0, 29.4 and 30.6 % of the impacts of the experience of childhood poverty on smoking, lack of exercise, and poor dietary habits, respectively. Educational attainment had the largest mediating effect (58.2 %) on the impact of the experience of childhood poverty on smoking. The results suggest that interventions and policies for supporting children living in poverty should aim to enhance their future SES and provide better social support, as this might improve their overall health.

Current risks of HeartMate II pump thrombosis: Non-parametric analysis of Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support data.

PubMed

Smedira, Nicholas G; Blackstone, Eugene H; Ehrlinger, John; Thuita, Lucy; Pierce, Christopher D; Moazami, Nader; Starling, Randall C

2015-12-01

Data from 3 institutions revealed an abrupt increase in HeartMate II (Thoratec) pump thrombosis starting in 2011, associated with 48% mortality at 6 months without transplantation or pump exchange. We sought to discover if the increase occurred nationwide in Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) data, and if so (1) determine if accelerated risk continued, (2) identify predictors, (3) investigate institutional variability, and (4) assess mortality after pump thrombosis. From April 2008 to June 2014, 11,123 HeartMate II devices were implanted at 146 institutions. Machine learning, non-parametric Random Forests for Survival was used to explore risk-adjusted thrombosis based on 87 pre-implant and implant variables, including implant date. A total of 995 pumps thrombosed, with risk peaking within weeks of implant. The risk-adjusted increase in pump thrombosis began in 2010, reached a maximum in 2012, and then plateaued at a level that was 3.3-times higher than pre-2010. Pump exchange, younger age, and larger body mass index were important predictors, and institutional variability was largely explained by implant date, patient profile, and duration of support. The probability of death within 3 months after pump thrombosis was 24%. Accelerated risk of HeartMate II thrombosis was confirmed by Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support data, with risk subsequently leveling at a risk-adjusted rate higher than observed pre-2010. This elevated thrombosis risk emphasizes the need for improved mechanical circulatory support systems and post-market surveillance of adverse events. Clinicians cognizant of these new data should incorporate them into their and their patients' expectations and understanding of risks relative to those of transplantation and continued medical therapy. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypothesis-based weight-of-evidence evaluation and risk assessment for naphthalene carcinogenesis

PubMed Central

Bailey, Lisa A.; Nascarella, Marc A.; Kerper, Laura E.; Rhomberg, Lorenz R.

2016-01-01

Inhalation of naphthalene causes olfactory epithelial nasal tumors in rats (but not in mice) and benign lung adenomas in mice (but not in rats). The limited available human data have not identified an association between naphthalene exposure and increased respiratory cancer risk. Assessing naphthalene's carcinogenicity in humans, therefore, depends entirely on experimental evidence from rodents. We evaluated the respiratory carcinogenicity of naphthalene in rodents, and its potential relevance to humans, using our Hypothesis-Based Weight-of-Evidence (HBWoE) approach. We systematically and comparatively reviewed data relevant to key elements in the hypothesized modes of action (MoA) to determine which is best supported by the available data, allowing all of the data from each realm of investigation to inform interpretation of one another. Our analysis supports a mechanism that involves initial metabolism of naphthalene to the epoxide, followed by GSH depletion, cytotoxicity, chronic inflammation, regenerative hyperplasia, and tumor formation, with possible weak genotoxicity from downstream metabolites occurring only at high cytotoxic doses, strongly supporting a non-mutagenic threshold MoA in the rat nose. We also conducted a dose–response analysis, based on the likely MoA, which suggests that the rat nasal MoA is not relevant in human respiratory tissues at typical environmental exposures. Our analysis illustrates how a thorough WoE evaluation can be used to support a MoA, even when a mechanism of action cannot be fully elucidated. A non-mutagenic threshold MoA for naphthalene-induced rat nasal tumors should be considered as a basis to determine human relevance and to guide regulatory and risk-management decisions. PMID:26202831

Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2014-05-01

The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

Risk factors associated with default among new pulmonary TB patients and social support in six Russian regions.

PubMed

Jakubowiak, W M; Bogorodskaya, E M; Borisov, S E; Borisov, E S; Danilova, I D; Danilova, D I; Kourbatova, E V; Kourbatova, E K

2007-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) services in six Russian regions in which social support programmes for TB patients were implemented. To identify risk factors for default and to evaluate possible impact of social support. Retrospective study of new pulmonary smear-positive and smear-negative TB patients registered during the second and third quarters of the 2003. Data were analysed in a case-control study including default patients as cases and successfully treated patients as controls, using multivariate logistic regression modelling. A total of 1805 cases of pulmonary TB were enrolled. Default rates in the regions were 2.3-6.3%. On multivariate analysis, risk factors independently associated with default outcome included: unemployment (OR 4.44; 95%CI 2.23-8.86), alcohol abuse (OR 1.99; 95%CI 1.04-3.81), and homelessness (OR 3.49; 95%CI 1.25-9.77). Social support reduced the default outcome (OR 0.13; 95%CI 0.06-0.28), controlling for age, sex, region, residence and acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear of sputum. Unemployment, alcohol abuse and homelessness were associated with increased default outcome among new TB patients, while social support for TB patients reduced default. Further prospective randomised studies are necessary to evaluate the impact and to determine the most cost-effective social support for improving treatment outcomes of TB in patients in Russia, especially among populations at risk of default.

Comparative risk assessments for the production and interim storage of glass and ceramic waste forms: Defense waste processing facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J. C.; Wright, W. V.

1982-04-01

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) for immobilizing nuclear high level waste (HLW) is scheduled to be built. High level waste is produced when reactor components are subjected to chemical separation operations. Two candidates for immobilizing this HLW are borosilicate glass and crystalline ceramic, either being contained in weld sealed stainless steel canisters. A number of technical analyses are being conducted to support a selection between these two waste forms. The risks associated with the manufacture and interim storage of these two forms in the DWPF are compared. Process information used in the risk analysis was taken primarily from a DWPF processibility analysis. The DWPF environmental analysis provided much of the necessary environmental information.

L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

Does age matter in predicting musculoskeletal disorder risk? An analysis of workplace predictors over 4 years.

PubMed

Oakman, Jodi; Neupane, Subas; Nygård, Clas-Håkan

2016-10-01

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are a major workplace issue. With increasing pressure to extend working lives, predictors of MSD risk across all age groups require accurate identification to inform risk reduction strategies. In 2005 and 2009, a survey was conducted in a Finnish food processing company (N = 734). Data on workplace physical and psychosocial hazards, work ability, job satisfaction and lifestyle-related variables were collected, and MSD risk was measured through assessment of work-related strain in four body areas. Predictors of MSD risk across three age groups (20-35, 36-49, 50+) were assessed with linear regression analysis. Physical hazards and MSD risk were related differently for each age group. The relationship between psychosocial hazards and MSD risk was less clear. For younger workers, physical hazards were not associated with MSD risk. In contrast, for those aged 36-49, repetitive movements (B = 1.76, p < 0.001) and awkward postures (B = 1.30, p = 0.02) were associated with increased MSD risk. For older workers, environmental hazards were positively associated with MSD risk (B = 0.37, p = 0.04). Predictors of MSD risk changed differently for each age group during 4 years of follow-up. For younger workers, change in environment and repetitive movements, for middle age team support and for older workers change in awkward posture were significant predictors of MSD risk. These results support the need for workplace-specific hazard surveillance data. This will ensure that all contributing factors to MSD risk can be accurately identified and controlled independent of age.

Postoperative complications in gastrointestinal cancer patients: the joint role of the nutritional status and the nutritional support.

PubMed

Bozzetti, Federico; Gianotti, Luca; Braga, Mario; Di Carlo, Valerio; Mariani, Luigi

2007-12-01

This study investigated the effects of nutritional support on postoperative complications, in relation with demographic and nutritional factors, intraoperative factors, type and routes of nutritional regimens. A series of 1410 subjects underwent major abdominal surgery for gastrointestinal cancer and received various types of nutritional support: standard intravenous fluids (SIF; n=149), total parenteral nutrition (TPN; n=368), enteral nutrition (EN; n=393), and immune-enhancing enteral nutrition (IEEN; n=500). Postoperative complications, considered as major (if lethal or requiring re-operation, or transfer to intensive care unit), or otherwise minor, were recorded. Major and minor complications occurred in 101 (7.2%) and 446 (31.6%) patients, respectively. Factors correlated with postoperative complications at multivariate analysis were pancreatic surgery, (p<0.001), advanced age (p=0.002), weight loss (p=0.019), low serum albumin (p=0.019) and nutritional support (p=0.001). Nutritional support reduced morbidity versus SIF with an increasing protective effect of TPN, EN, and IEEN. This effect remained valid regardless the severity of risk factors identified at the multivariate analysis and it was more evident by considering infectious complications only. Pancreatic surgery, advanced age, weight loss and low serum albumin are independent risk factors for the onset of postoperative complications. Nutritional support, particularly IEEN, significantly reduced postoperative morbidity.

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Booth, Steven Richard

2016-04-04

AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision supportmore » to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.« less

Intelligence-Led Risk Management for Homeland Security: A Collaborative Approach for a Common Goal

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

phases of research into a summary analysis of the risk management policy within the homeland security enterprise. The result of the multi-goal policy ...management and policy decisions with emphasis on social aspects and efforts to support local and regional decision making, and to avoid cascading...independent variables. The second order social and economic effects of terrorism have been largely overlooked so far in accounting for the risk from

SMART: A Propositional Logic-Based Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment Tool for a Complex Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Nicholas, Austin; Alibay, Farah; Parrish, Joseph

2015-01-01

This paper introduces a new trade analysis software called the Space Mission Architecture and Risk Analysis Tool (SMART). This tool supports a high-level system trade study on a complex mission, such as a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, in an intuitive and quantitative manner. In a complex mission, a common approach to increase the probability of success is to have redundancy and prepare backups. Quantitatively evaluating the utility of adding redundancy to a system is important but not straightforward, particularly when the failure of parallel subsystems are correlated.

Effect-directed analysis supporting monitoring of aquatic environments - An in-depth overview

EPA Science Inventory

Aquatic environments are often contaminated with complex mixtures of chemicals that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. This contamination cannot be addressed with target analysis alone but tools are required to reduce this complexity and identify those chemicals that...

Correlates of Social Support Among Latino Immigrants.

PubMed

Held, Mary L

2018-04-01

Latino immigrants encounter considerable stressors that pose risks to health and well-being during settlement in the USA. Social support serves as a protective factor that can help to buffer the negative effects of stress. Despite the importance of social support, we know little about how Latino immigrants differentially experience this protective factor. The current study analyzed data from 100 Latino immigrants residing in Tennessee. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was employed to examine variation in self-reported social support by immigrant characteristics and immigration-related factors. Females, immigrants who are not married/cohabitating, and those who reported experiencing a greater number of discrete stressors in the USA each reported lower levels of social support. Implications for practice include an increased emphasis on assessing levels of social support and designing services to strengthen support for the most vulnerable immigrants. Future research should consider a longitudinal analysis and specific types of social support.

Managing Technical and Cost Uncertainties During Product Development in a Simulation-Based Design Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karandikar, Harsh M.

1997-01-01

An approach for objective and quantitative technical and cost risk analysis during product development, which is applicable from the earliest stages, is discussed. The approach is supported by a software tool called the Analytical System for Uncertainty and Risk Estimation (ASURE). Details of ASURE, the underlying concepts and its application history, are provided.

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney

2009-01-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of...

[Generalization of the results of clinical studies through the analysis of subgroups].

PubMed

Costa, João; Fareleira, Filipa; Ascensão, Raquel; Vaz Carneiro, António

2012-01-01

Subgroup analysis in clinical trials are usually performed to define the potential heterogeneity of treatment effect in relation with the baseline risk, physiopathology, practical application of therapy or the under-utilization in clinical practice of effective interventions due to uncertainties of its benefit/risk ratio. When appropriately planned, subgroup analysis are a valid methodology the define benefits in subgroups of patients, thus providing good quality evidence to support clinical decision making. However, in order to be correct, subgroup analysis should be defined a priori, done in small numbers, should be fully reported and, most important, must endure statistical tests for interaction. In this paper we present an example of the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporosis, in which the benefits of an intervention (the higher the fracture risk is, the better the benefit is) with a specific agent (bazedoxifene) was only disclosed after a post-hoc analysis of the initial global trial sample.

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

PubMed Central

Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity. PMID:21746924

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Wilson, Robert J

2011-07-26

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

An economic model of the benefits of professional doula labor support in Wisconsin births.

PubMed

Chapple, Will; Gilliland, Amy; Li, Dongmei; Shier, Emily; Wright, Emily

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate the immediate cost savings per delivery with in-hospital professional doula labor support in Wisconsin. This is the first study that calculates the estimated cost savings of professional doula labor support specific to Wisconsin. This analysis used results presented in and derived from the Cochrane Review of continuous labor support to estimate procedure reduction and cost savings in Wisconsin using birth statistics from 2010. The delivery outcomes included were cesarean deliveries, instrumental deliveries, and regional analgesia use. To accurately reflect published studies on labor support, only low-risk deliveries were used for intervention reduction calculations. For 2010 data, estimated savings of 28,997,754.80 dollars could have been achieved if every low-risk birth were attended in-hospital by a professional doula. A professional doula providing only in-hospital labor support would yield an estimated cost savings of 424.14 dollars per delivery or 530.89 dollars per low-risk delivery. A system-based change in how laboring mothers are supported would be an innovative step that would put Wisconsin at the forefront of cost-effective health care, reducing interventions while improving outcomes. It is recommended that Wisconsin insurers consider reimbursing for professional doula labor support. It is also recommended that pilot programs be implemented in Wisconsin that can better assess the implementation of professional doula labor support services.

Analysis of Lrrk2 R1628P as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Ross, Owen A; Wu, Yih-Ru; Lee, Mei-Ching; Funayama, Manabu; Chen, Meng-Ling; Soto, Alexandra I; Mata, Ignacio F; Lee-Chen, Guey-Jen; Chen, Chiung Mei; Tang, Michelle; Zhao, Yi; Hattori, Nobutaka; Farrer, Matthew J; Tan, Eng-King; Wu, Ruey-Meei

2008-07-01

Common genetic variants that increase the risk for Parkinson's disease may differentiate patient subgroups and influence future individualized therapeutic strategies. Herein we show evidence for leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) c.4883G>C (R1628P) as a risk factor in ethnic Chinese populations. A study of 1,986 individuals from 3 independent centers in Taiwan and Singapore demonstrates that Lrrk2 R1628P increases risk for Parkinson's disease (odds ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.83; p = 0.006). Haplotype analysis suggests an ancestral founder for carriers approximately 2,500 years ago. These findings support the importance of LRRK2 variants in sporadic Parkinson's disease. Ann Neurol 2008.

A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

PubMed

Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

2014-01-01

Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, Susan D.; Hunter, Regina L.; Link, Madison D.

RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database containsmore » both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.« less

Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process. In the present paper we propose a novel methodology for supporting the priority setting in the assessment of such issues, beyond the typical "expected value" approach. Scientific contribution and management aspects are merged to create a simplified method for plan basin implementation, based on risk and economic analyses. However, the economic evaluation is not the sole criterion for flood-damage reduction plan selection. Among the different criteria that are relevant to the decision process, safety and quality of human life, economic damage, expenses related with the chosen measures and environmental issues should play a fundamental role on the decisions made by the authorities. Some numerical indices, taking in account administrative, technical, economical and risk aspects, are defined and are combined together in a mathematical formula that defines a Priority Index (PI). In particular, the priority index defines a ranking of priority interventions, thus allowing the formulation of the investment plan. The research is mainly focused on the technical factors of risk assessment, providing quantitative and qualitative estimates of possible alternatives, containing measures of the risk associated with those alternatives. Moreover, the issues of risk management are analyzed, in particular with respect to the role of decision making in the presence of risk information. However, a great effort is devoted to make this index easy to be formulated and effective to allow a clear and transparent comparison between the alternatives. Summarizing this document describes a major- steps for incorporation of risk analysis into the decision making process: framing of the problem in terms of risk analysis, application of appropriate tools and techniques to obtain quantified results, use of the quantified results in the choice of structural and non-structural measures. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed methodology and to show how risk-based information can be incorporated into a flood analysis process, its application to some middle italy river basins is presented. The methodology assessment is performed by comparing different scenarios and showing that the optimal decision stems from a feasibility evaluation.

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

Import Security: Assessing the Risks of Imported Food.

PubMed

Welburn, Jonathan; Bier, Vicki; Hoerning, Steven

2016-11-01

We use data on food import violations from the FDA Operational and Administrative System for Import Support (OASIS) to address rising concerns associated with imported food, quantify import risks by product and by country of origin, and explore the usefulness of OASIS data for risk assessment. In particular, we assess whether there are significant trends in violations, whether import violations can be used to quantify risks by country and by product, and how import risks depend on economic factors of the country of origin. The results show that normalizing import violations by volume of imports provides a meaningful indicator of risk. We then use regression analysis to characterize import risks.  Using this model, we analyze import risks by product type, violation type, and economic factors of the country of origin.  We find that OASIS data are useful in quantifying food import risks, and that the rate of refusals provides a useful decision tool for risk management.  Furthermore, we find that some economic factors are significant indicators of food import risk by country. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Thermal Quality Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis (GPFA-AB

DOE Data Explorer

Teresa E. Jordan

2015-11-15

This collection of files are part of a larger dataset uploaded in support of Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB, DOE Project DE-EE0006726). Phase 1 of the GPFA-AB project identified potential Geothermal Play Fairways within the Appalachian basin of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York. This was accomplished through analysis of 4 key criteria or ‘risks’: thermal quality, natural reservoir productivity, risk of seismicity, and heat utilization. Each of these analyses represent a distinct project task, with the fifth task encompassing combination of the 4 risks factors. Supporting data for all five tasks has been uploaded into the Geothermal Data Repository node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). This submission comprises the data for Thermal Quality Analysis (project task 1) and includes all of the necessary shapefiles, rasters, datasets, code, and references to code repositories that were used to create the thermal resource and risk factor maps as part of the GPFA-AB project. The identified Geothermal Play Fairways are also provided with the larger dataset. Figures (.png) are provided as examples of the shapefiles and rasters. The regional standardized 1 square km grid used in the project is also provided as points (cell centers), polygons, and as a raster. Two ArcGIS toolboxes are available: 1) RegionalGridModels.tbx for creating resource and risk factor maps on the standardized grid, and 2) ThermalRiskFactorModels.tbx for use in making the thermal resource maps and cross sections. These toolboxes contain “item description” documentation for each model within the toolbox, and for the toolbox itself. This submission also contains three R scripts: 1) AddNewSeisFields.R to add seismic risk data to attribute tables of seismic risk, 2) StratifiedKrigingInterpolation.R for the interpolations used in the thermal resource analysis, and 3) LeaveOneOutCrossValidation.R for the cross validations used in the thermal interpolations. Some file descriptions make reference to various 'memos'. These are contained within the final report submitted October 16, 2015. Each zipped file in the submission contains an 'about' document describing the full Thermal Quality Analysis content available, along with key sources, authors, citation, use guidelines, and assumptions, with the specific file(s) contained within the .zip file highlighted.

NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Fuller, Raymond P.

2011-01-01

Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.

Supporting change in chronic disease risk behaviours for people with a mental illness: a qualitative study of the experiences of family carers.

PubMed

Bailey, Jacqueline M; Hansen, Vibeke; Wye, Paula M; Wiggers, John H; Bartlem, Kate M; Bowman, Jennifer A

2018-03-27

People with a mental illness experience greater chronic disease morbidity and mortality, and associated reduced life expectancy, compared to those without such an illness. A higher prevalence of chronic disease risk behaviours (inadequate nutrition, inadequate physical activity, tobacco smoking, and harmful alcohol consumption) is experienced by this population. Family carers have the potential to support change in such behaviours among those they care for with a mental illness. This study aimed to explore family carers': 1) experiences in addressing the chronic disease risk behaviours of their family members; 2) existing barriers to addressing such behaviours; and 3) perceptions of potential strategies to assist them to provide risk behaviour change support. A qualitative study of four focus groups (n = 31), using a semi-structured interview schedule, was conducted with carers of people with a mental illness in New South Wales, Australia from January 2015 to February 2016. An inductive thematic analysis was employed to explore the experience of carers in addressing the chronic disease risk behaviours. Two main themes were identified in family carers' report of their experiences: firstly, that health behaviours were salient concerns for carers and that they were engaged in providing support, and secondly that they perceived a bidirectional relationship between health behaviours and mental well-being. Key barriers to addressing behaviours were: a need to attend to carers' own well-being; defensiveness on behalf of the family member; and not residing with their family member; with other behaviour-specific barriers also identified. Discussion around strategies which would assist carers in providing support for health risk behaviours identified a need for improved communication and collaboration between carers and health services accessed by their family members. Additional support from general and mental health services accessed by family members is desired to assist carers to address the barriers to providing behaviour change support. Carers have the potential to support and extend health service interventions aimed at improving the chronic disease risk behaviours of people with a mental illness but may require additional information, and collaboration from services. Further research is needed to explore these constructs in a large representative sample.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lindbohm, M.L.; Hemminki, K.; Kyyroenen, P.

Spontaneous abortions were analyzed by the occupational exposure of women and their husbands, with data from the Finnish hospital discharge register and the national census. The occupations were grouped according to presumed exposure into seven categories: exposure to solvent; automobile exhaust fumes; polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; other chemicals; metals; textile dust; and animal microorganisms. The relative risks of spontaneous abortion were estimated with logistic regression analysis to adjust for potentially confounding factors. The broad exposure categories appeared, at most, to be weak risk factors of spontaneous abortion, because the relative risks of abortion were not significantly increased in any of themore » parental exposure groups. The analysis of detailed occupational categories showed some female and male occupations with an increased risk. The observations of increased risk related to laboratory work supported earlier findings. The high number of textile occupations with increased risk is also worth noting, and further investigations are necessary to confirm whether this is due to occupational hazards or other factors.« less

GIS-supported epidemiological analysis on canine Angiostrongylus vasorum and Crenosoma vulpis infections in Germany.

PubMed

Maksimov, Pavlo; Hermosilla, Carlos; Taubert, Anja; Staubach, Christoph; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Conraths, Franz J; Vrhovec, Majda Globokar; Pantchev, Nikola

2017-02-28

Angiostrongylus vasorum infections are the cause of severe cardiopulmonary diseases in dogs. In the past, canine angiostrongylosis has largely been neglected in Europe, although some recent studies indicated an expansion of historically known endemic areas, a phenomenon that might also apply to Crenosoma vulpis. The aim of the present study was to analyse temporal and spatial trends of canine A. vasorum and C. vulpis infections and to perform GIS-supported risk factor analysis to evaluate the role of landscape, age and seasonality in the life-cycle of these nematodes. A total of 12,682 faecal samples from German dogs (collected in 2003-2015) with clinical suspicion for lungworm infection were examined for the presence of A. vasorum and C. vulpis larvae by the Baermann funnel technique and respective epidemiological data (location and age of the sampled dogs, date of sampling) were subjected to GIS-supported risk factor analysis. Overall, A. vasorum and C. vulpis larvae were detected in 288 (2.3%) and 285 (2.2%) faecal samples, respectively. In general, both lungworm infections were found to be widely spread in Germany. GIS-supported analyses demonstrate spatial differences in the occurrence of canine A. vasorum and C. vulpis infections in Germany. also, risk factor analyses revealed an overlap but also diverging risk and protective factors for A. vasorum and C. vulpis infections. The current data also indicate a significant increase of A. vasorum and C. vulpis prevalences from 2003 to 2015 and from 2008 until 2015, respectively, and a potential spread of A. vasorum endemic areas to the northeastern part of Germany. The results of the present study show an insight into the epidemiological situation of lungworm infections (A. vasorum and C. vulpis) of the past 13 years in Germany. The data clearly demonstrate an increase of diagnosed A. vasorum prevalence in the tested dog population between 2003 and 2015 as well as spatial differences in the occurrence of diagnosed A. vasorum and C. vulpis infections of dogs in Germany. Risk factor analyses suggest possible differences in the biology of these parasites, presumably at the intermediate host level.

A qualitative analysis exploring preferred methods of peer support to encourage adherence to a Mediterranean diet in a Northern European population at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Erwin, Christina M; McEvoy, Claire T; Moore, Sarah E; Prior, Lindsay; Lawton, Julia; Kee, Frank; Cupples, Margaret E; Young, Ian S; Appleton, Katherine; McKinley, Michelle C; Woodside, Jayne V

2018-02-05

Epidemiological and randomised controlled trial evidence demonstrates that adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) can reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, methods used to support dietary change have been intensive and expensive. Peer support has been suggested as a possible cost-effective method to encourage adherence to a MD in at risk populations, although development of such a programme has not been explored. The purpose of this study was to use mixed-methods to determine the preferred peer support approach to encourage adherence to a MD. Qualitative (focus groups) and quantitative methods (questionnaire and preference scoring sheet) were used to determine preferred methods of peer support. Sixty-seven high CVD risk participants took part in 12 focus groups (60% female, mean age 64 years) and completed a questionnaire and preference scoring sheet. Focus group data were transcribed and thematically analysed. The mean preference score (1 being most preferred and 5 being least preferred) for group support was 1.5, compared to 3.4 for peer mentorship, 4.0 for telephone peer support and 4.0 for internet peer support. Three key themes were identified from the transcripts: 1. Components of an effective peer support group: discussions around group peer support were predominantly positive. It was suggested that an effective group develops from people who consider themselves similar to each other meeting face-to-face, leading to the development of a group identity that embraces trust and honesty. 2. Catalysing Motivation: participants discussed that a group peer support model could facilitate interpersonal motivations including encouragement, competitiveness and accountability. 3. Stepping Stones of Change: participants conceptualised change as a process, and discussed that, throughout the process, different models of peer support might be more or less useful. A group-based approach was the preferred method of peer support to encourage a population at high risk of CVD to adhere to a MD. This finding should be recognised in the development of interventions to encourage adoption of a MD in a Northern European population.

Support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention: A network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Dumville, Jo C.; Cullum, Nicky

2018-01-01

Background Pressure ulcers are a prevalent and global issue and support surfaces are widely used for preventing ulceration. However, the diversity of available support surfaces and the lack of direct comparisons in RCTs make decision-making difficult. Objectives To determine, using network meta-analysis, the relative effects of different support surfaces in reducing pressure ulcer incidence and comfort and to rank these support surfaces in order of their effectiveness. Methods We conducted a systematic review, using a literature search up to November 2016, to identify randomised trials comparing support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We grouped the support surfaces according to their characteristics and formed evidence networks using these groups. We used network meta-analysis to estimate the relative effects and effectiveness ranking of the groups for the outcomes of pressure ulcer incidence and participant comfort. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. Main results We included 65 studies in the review. The network for assessing pressure ulcer incidence comprised evidence of low or very low certainty for most network contrasts. There was moderate-certainty evidence that powered active air surfaces and powered hybrid air surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence compared with standard hospital surfaces (risk ratios (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.29 to 0.63; 0.22, 0.07 to 0.66, respectively). The network for comfort suggested that powered active air-surfaces are probably slightly less comfortable than standard hospital mattresses (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; moderate-certainty evidence). Conclusions This is the first network meta-analysis of the effects of support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Powered active air-surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence, but are probably less comfortable than standard hospital surfaces. Most prevention evidence was of low or very low certainty, and more research is required to reduce these uncertainties. PMID:29474359

Support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention: A network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Chunhu; Dumville, Jo C; Cullum, Nicky

2018-01-01

Pressure ulcers are a prevalent and global issue and support surfaces are widely used for preventing ulceration. However, the diversity of available support surfaces and the lack of direct comparisons in RCTs make decision-making difficult. To determine, using network meta-analysis, the relative effects of different support surfaces in reducing pressure ulcer incidence and comfort and to rank these support surfaces in order of their effectiveness. We conducted a systematic review, using a literature search up to November 2016, to identify randomised trials comparing support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We grouped the support surfaces according to their characteristics and formed evidence networks using these groups. We used network meta-analysis to estimate the relative effects and effectiveness ranking of the groups for the outcomes of pressure ulcer incidence and participant comfort. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. We included 65 studies in the review. The network for assessing pressure ulcer incidence comprised evidence of low or very low certainty for most network contrasts. There was moderate-certainty evidence that powered active air surfaces and powered hybrid air surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence compared with standard hospital surfaces (risk ratios (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.29 to 0.63; 0.22, 0.07 to 0.66, respectively). The network for comfort suggested that powered active air-surfaces are probably slightly less comfortable than standard hospital mattresses (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; moderate-certainty evidence). This is the first network meta-analysis of the effects of support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Powered active air-surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence, but are probably less comfortable than standard hospital surfaces. Most prevention evidence was of low or very low certainty, and more research is required to reduce these uncertainties.

75 FR 81942 - Importation of Clementines From Spain; Amendment to Inspection Provisions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-29

... copy of your comment to Docket No. APHIS-2010-0036, Regulatory Analysis and Development, PPD, APHIS..., Assistant Director of Preclearance Programs, Quarantine Policy, Analysis, and Support, PPQ, APHIS, 4700... have increased, and lower the number if environmental, climatic, or other factors indicate a lower risk...

Functional Assessment and Positive Support Strategies for Promoting Resilience: Effects on Teachers and High-Risk Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoiber, Karen Callan; Gettinger, Maribeth

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to conduct an experimental analysis of teachers' use of functional assessment (FA) and positive behavior support (PBS) for addressing challenging behaviors in young children. A group of 35 experimental teachers participated in professional development designed to provide step-by-step training and guided implementation…

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, R. A.; Datta, T. K.; Ahmad, S.

2005-06-01

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges using Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) procedure is presented for determining their failure probability under random ground motion. Seismic input to the bridge support is considered to be a risk consistent response spectrum which is obtained from a separate analysis. For the response analysis, the bridge deck is modeles as a beam supported on spring at different points. The stiffnesses of the springs are determined by a separate 2D static analysis of cable-tower-deck system. The analysis provides a coupled stiffness matrix for the spring system. A continuum method of analysis using dynamic stiffness is used to determine the dynamic properties of the bridges. The response of the bridge deck is obtained by the response spectrum method of analysis as applied to multidegree of freedom system which duly takes into account the quasi-static component of bridge deck vibration. The fragility analysis includes uncertainties arising due to the variation in ground motion, material property, modeling, method of analysis, ductility factor and damage concentration effect. Probability of failure of the bridge deck is determined by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method of reliability. A three span double plane symmetrical fan type cable stayed bridge of total span 689 m, is used as an illustrative example. The fragility curves for the bridge deck failure are obtained under a number of parametric variations. Some of the important conclusions of the study indicate that (i) not only vertical component but also the horizontal component of ground motion has considerable effect on the probability of failure; (ii) ground motion with no time lag between support excitations provides a smaller probability of failure as compared to ground motion with very large time lag between support excitation; and (iii) probability of failure may considerably increase soft soil condition.

Factors influencing adolescent girls' sexual behavior: a secondary analysis of the 2011 youth risk behavior survey.

PubMed

Anatale, Katharine; Kelly, Sarah

2015-03-01

Adolescence is a tumultuous and challenging time period in life. Sexual risk behavior among adolescents is a widespread topic of interest in the current literature. Two common factors that influence increased sexual risk behavior are symptoms of depression and negative body image. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of body image and symptoms of depression upon sexual risk-taking in an adolescent female population. A secondary data analysis of the 2011 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) was used to explore girls' sexual activity, body image, and mental health. There were 7,708 high-school girls who participated in this study. Three questions were used to represent the constructs under investigation. There were significant correlations between sexual activity, body image, and symptoms of depression; only symptoms of depression were significant predictors of both sexual activity and condom usage. Body image was a predictor of sexual activity, but not condom use. Our findings support previous studies that suggested that people with depressive symptoms were more likely to engage in risky sexual behaviors. Our study also supports the idea that a negative body image decreases sexual activity; however, other researchers have reported that negative body image leads to an increase in sexual activity.

Ventilatory support in critically ill hematology patients with respiratory failure

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Hematology patients admitted to the ICU frequently experience respiratory failure and require mechanical ventilation. Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) may decrease the risk of intubation, but NIMV failure poses its own risks. Methods To establish the impact of ventilatory management and NIMV failure on outcome, data from a prospective, multicenter, observational study were analyzed. All hematology patients admitted to one of the 34 participating ICUs in a 17-month period were followed up. Data on demographics, diagnosis, severity, organ failure, and supportive therapies were recorded. A logistic regression analysis was done to evaluate the risk factors associated with death and NIVM failure. Results Of 450 patients, 300 required ventilatory support. A diagnosis of congestive heart failure and the initial use of NIMV significantly improved survival, whereas APACHE II score, allogeneic transplantation, and NIMV failure increased the risk of death. The risk factors associated with NIMV success were age, congestive heart failure, and bacteremia. Patients with NIMV failure experienced a more severe respiratory impairment than did those electively intubated. Conclusions NIMV improves the outcome of hematology patients with respiratory insufficiency, but NIMV failure may have the opposite effect. A careful selection of patients with rapidly reversible causes of respiratory failure may increase NIMV success. PMID:22827955

How to make the most of failure mode and effect analysis.

PubMed

Stalhandske, Erik; DeRosier, Joseph; Patail, Bryanne; Gosbee, John

2003-01-01

Current accreditation standards issued by the Joint Commission for the Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) require hospitals to carry out a proactive risk assessment on at least 1 high-risk activity each year for each accredited program. Because hospital risk managers and patient safety managers generally do not have the knowledge or level of comfort for conducting a proactive risk assessment, they will appreciate the expertise offered by biomedical equipment technicians (BMETs), occupational safety and health professionals, and others. The skills that have been developed by BMETs and others while conducting job safety analyses or failure mode effect analysis can now be applied to a health care proactive analysis. This article touches on the Health Care Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) model that the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) National Center for Patient Safety developed for proactive risk assessment within the health care community. The goal of this article is to enlighten BMETs and others on the growth of proactive risk assessment within health care and also on the support documents and materials produced by the VA. For additional information on HFMEA, visit the VA website at www.patientsafety.gov/HFMEA.html.

The impact of social support on the risk of eating disorders in women exposed to intimate partner violence.

PubMed

Schirk, Dana K; Lehman, Erik B; Perry, Amanda N; Ornstein, Rollyn M; McCall-Hosenfeld, Jennifer S

2015-01-01

Eating disorders (EDs) are often found among women exposed to intimate partner violence (IPV). The role of social support (SS) as a protective factor against ED among IPV-exposed women is not firmly established. The objective of this study is to determine the distribution of risk of EDs among women exposed to IPV and to examine the impact of SS on risk of ED among IPV-exposed women. Women (aged 18-64 years) exposed to IPV during their lifetimes (defined by the Humiliation-Afraid-Rape-Kick instrument) were recruited from primary care and domestic violence service agencies and surveyed on demographics, mood/anxiety disorders, psychosocial/community factors, and strategies used in response to IPV. The Eating Disorder Screen for Primary Care assessed the risk of ED. A modified Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey assessed overall functional support (scale range: 0-32; categorized into quartiles). Ordinal logistic regression examined the risk of ED based on SS, controlling for prespecified demographics (age, race/ethnicity, marital status, near-poverty level), and health-related factors significant in bivariate analyses (risky alcohol use). Among 302 women with lifetime IPV, 41 (14%) were at high risk, 127 (42%) were at moderate risk, and 134 (44%) were at low risk of an ED. In bivariate analyses, high risk of an ED was significantly more frequent among women with a low SS score (<19, 24%) versus a high SS score (≥30, 12%) (P=0.03). High risk of an ED was significantly associated with risky alcohol use (18%) versus non-risky alcohol use (13%; P=0.008). In multivariable analysis, a 5-unit increase in overall SS was significantly associated with decreased odds of ED risk (P=0.007). Among IPV-exposed women, low SS is associated with an increased risk of ED. SS may protect against ED by reducing anxiety and promoting positive actions, but further study is needed to confirm this.

Hypertension-misattributed kidney disease in African Americans.

PubMed

Skorecki, Karl L; Wasser, Walter G

2013-01-01

Lipkowitz et al. extend the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension to the level of genetic epidemiology, in a case-control study design. Analysis of genotypes at the APOL1 kidney disease risk region supports a paradigm shift in which genetic risk is proximate to both kidney disease and hypertension. The findings mandate urgency in clarifying mechanisms whereby APOL1 region risk variants interact with environmental triggers to cause progressive kidney disease accompanied by dangerous hypertension.

How short should short-term risk assessment be? Determining the optimum interval for START reassessment in a secure mental health service.

PubMed

Dickens, G L; O'Shea, L E

2015-08-01

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a tool used in some mental health services to assess patients to see if they are at risk of violence, self-harm, self-neglect or victimization. The recommended time between assessments is 3 months but there is currently no evidence to show that this is best practice. We have investigated whether assessing at 1- or 2-month intervals would be more accurate and therefore facilitate more individualized risk management interventions. We found that many patients who were rated as low risk had been involved in risk behaviours before 3 months had passed; some patients who were rated at increased risk did not get involved in risk behaviours at all. Results are mixed for different outcomes but on balance, we think that the recommendation to conduct START assessment every 3 months is supported by the evidence. However, reassessment should be considered if risk behaviours are not prevented and teams should always consider whether risk management practices are too restrictive. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) guides assessment of potential adverse outcomes. Assessment is recommended every 3 months but there is no evidence for this interval. We aimed to inform whether earlier reassessment was warranted. We collated START assessments for N = 217 adults in a secure mental health hospital, and subsequent aggressive, self-harm, self-neglect and victimization incidents. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to assess predictive validity; survival function analysis to examine differences between low-, medium-, and high-risk groups; and hazard function analysis to determine the optimum interval for reassessment. The START predicted aggression and self-harm at 1, 2 and 3 months. At-risk individuals engaged in adverse outcomes earlier than low-risk patients. About half warranted reassessment before 3 months due to engagement in risk behaviour before that point despite a low-risk rating, or because of non-engagement by that point despite an elevated risk rating. Risk assessment should occur at appropriate intervals so that management strategies can be individually tailored. Assessment at 3-month intervals is supported by the evidence. START assessments should be revisited earlier if risk behaviours are not prevented; teams should constantly re-evaluate the need for restrictive practices. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Building electronic forms for elderly program: integrated care model for high risk elders in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yiu, Rex; Fung, Vicky; Szeto, Karen; Hung, Veronica; Siu, Ricky; Lam, Johnny; Lai, Daniel; Maw, Christina; Cheung, Adah; Shea, Raman; Choy, Anna

2013-01-01

In Hong Kong, elderly patients discharged from hospital are at high risk of unplanned readmission. The Integrated Care Model (ICM) program is introduced to provide continuous and coordinated care for high risk elders from hospital to community to prevent unplanned readmission. A multidisciplinary working group was set up to address the requirements on developing the electronic forms for ICM program. Six (6) forms were developed. These forms can support ICM service delivery for the high risk elders, clinical documentation, statistical analysis and information sharing.

Creating an advance-care-planning decision aid for high-risk surgery: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background High-risk surgery patients may lose decision-making capacity as a result of surgical complications. Advance care planning prior to surgery may be beneficial, but remains controversial and is hindered by a lack of appropriate decision aids. This study sought to examine stakeholders’ views on the appropriateness of using decision aids, in general, to support advance care planning among high-risk surgery populations and the design of such a decision aid. Methods Key informants were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone until data collected reached theoretical saturation. Key informants were asked to discuss their thoughts about advance care planning and interventions to support advance care planning, particularly for this population. Researchers took de-identified notes that were analyzed for emerging concordant, discordant, and recurrent themes using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results Key informants described the importance of initiating advance care planning preoperatively, despite potential challenges present in surgical settings. In general, decision aids were viewed as an appropriate approach to support advance care planning for this population. A recipe emerged from the data that outlines tools, ingredients, and tips for success that are needed to design an advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgical settings. Conclusions Stakeholders supported incorporating advance care planning in high-risk surgical settings and endorsed the appropriateness of using decision aids to do so. Findings will inform the next stages of developing the first advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgery patients. PMID:25067908

Creating an advance-care-planning decision aid for high-risk surgery: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Schuster, Anne Lr; Aslakson, Rebecca A; Bridges, John Fp

2014-01-01

High-risk surgery patients may lose decision-making capacity as a result of surgical complications. Advance care planning prior to surgery may be beneficial, but remains controversial and is hindered by a lack of appropriate decision aids. This study sought to examine stakeholders' views on the appropriateness of using decision aids, in general, to support advance care planning among high-risk surgery populations and the design of such a decision aid. Key informants were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone until data collected reached theoretical saturation. Key informants were asked to discuss their thoughts about advance care planning and interventions to support advance care planning, particularly for this population. Researchers took de-identified notes that were analyzed for emerging concordant, discordant, and recurrent themes using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Key informants described the importance of initiating advance care planning preoperatively, despite potential challenges present in surgical settings. In general, decision aids were viewed as an appropriate approach to support advance care planning for this population. A recipe emerged from the data that outlines tools, ingredients, and tips for success that are needed to design an advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgical settings. Stakeholders supported incorporating advance care planning in high-risk surgical settings and endorsed the appropriateness of using decision aids to do so. Findings will inform the next stages of developing the first advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgery patients.

A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Victoria Katherine

In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

Family risk and related education and counseling needs: perceptions of adults with bipolar disorder and siblings of adults with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Peay, H L; Hooker, G W; Kassem, L; Biesecker, B B

2009-03-01

Genetics and mental health professionals increasingly provide education and counseling related to risk for psychiatric illness, but there is insufficient evidence about patient perceptions and needs to guide such interventions. Affected individuals and relatives may perceive increased family risk and have interest in genetic education and counseling. Our objectives were to explore perceptions of family vulnerability, perceived control, and coping strategies related to familial risk and needs from genetic counseling. Our methods included conducting semi-structured interviews (n = 48) with individuals with bipolar disorder (BPD) and unaffected siblings. Content analysis generated descriptive data that provide guidance for clinical interventions and themes to evaluate in future studies. The results showed that participants perceived increased personal and family risk, attributing BPD to genes and family environment. Causal attributions were often uncertain and at times inconsistent. Participants wished to modify psychiatric risk to relatives, but were uncertain how to do so; despite the uncertainty, most parents reported risk-modification efforts. Efforts to cope with family vulnerability included monitoring and cognitive distancing. Participants endorsed the usefulness of education and psychological support, but described more ambivalence about receiving risk assessment. Educational and supportive interventions around family risk for BPD should focus on perceptions of cause and vulnerability, reproductive decision-making, and early intervention and risk modification in young relatives. Psychological support is an important component. Providers should evaluate patient coping strategies, which could facilitate or hinder genetic counseling interventions, and should not assume interest in quantitative risk assessment. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Escalation to Major Depressive Disorder among Adolescents with Subthreshold Depressive Symptoms: Evidence of Distinct Subgroups at Risk

PubMed Central

Hill, Ryan M.; Pettit, Jeremy W.; Lewinsohn, Peter M.; Seeley, John R.; Klein, Daniel N.

2014-01-01

Background The presence of subthreshold depressive symptoms (SubD) in adolescence is associated with high prospective risk of developing Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). Little is known about variables that predict escalation from SubD to MDD. This study used a longitudinal prospective design in a community sample of adolescents to identify combinations of risk factors that predicted escalation from SubD to MDD. Methods Classification tree analysis was used to identify combinations of risk factors that improved the sensitivity and specificity of prediction of MDD onset among 424 adolescents with a lifetime history of SubD. Results Of the 424, 144 developed MDD during the follow-up period. Evidence for multiple subgroups was found: Among adolescents with poor friend support, the highest risk of escalation was among participants with lifetime histories of an anxiety or substance use disorder. Among adolescents with high friend support, those reporting multiple major life events in the past year or with a history of an anxiety disorder were at highest risk of escalation. Limitations Study findings may not inform prevention efforts for individuals who first develop SubD during adulthood. This study did not examine the temporal ordering of predictors involved in escalation from SubD to MDD. Conclusions Adolescents with a history of SubD were at highest risk of escalation to MDD in the presence of poor friend support and an anxiety or substance use disorder, or in the presence of better friend support, multiple major life events, and an anxiety disorder. Findings may inform case identification approaches for adolescent depression prevention programs. PMID:24655777

Classifying At-Risk High School Youth: The Influence of Exposure to Community Violence and Protective Factors on Academic and Health Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solberg, V. Scott H.; Carlstom, Aaron H.; Howard, Kimberly A. S.; Jones, Janice E.

2007-01-01

Using cluster analysis, 789 predominately Latino and African American high school youth were classified into varying academic at-risk profiles using self-reported levels of academic confidence, motivation to attend school, perceived family support, connections with teachers and peers, and exposure to violence. Six clusters emerged, 5 of which were…

Challenges to Practicing HIV Sex-Risk Prevention Among People in Continuing Care for Cocaine Addiction.

PubMed

Wimberly, Alexandra S; Stern, Max R; Rosenbach, Sarah B; Thomas, Tyrone; McKay, James R

2017-04-16

Intimate partnerships are discouraged during early recovery, despite research that highlights their capacity to be resources for change. This study seeks to provide descriptions of intimate partnerships and how such partnerships challenge and/or support minimizing HIV sex-risk among participants in continuing care for cocaine addiction in order to inform substance use programming. Forty-two recorded continuing care counseling sessions of 33 people who discussed HIV sex-risk behavior were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis. This sample was derived from a larger randomized controlled trial that looked at the impact of a continuing care intervention for people with cocaine use problems. Although participants expressed the desire for a primary intimate partnership, casual intimate partnerships that often involved HIV sex-risk behavior were more prevalent. Challenges to having a primary intimate partner included the belief that intimate partnerships do not support recovery, difficulty in developing friendships with women among heterosexual men, and the ubiquity of drug use and sex work in home environments with limited economic opportunity. Despite these challenges, some participants reported having primary intimate partners that supported their recovery through open communication. Clinicians providing substance use interventions can consider encouraging components of intimate partnerships that support recovery. In addition, the strong environmental influence on individual HIV sex-risk behavior should be considered in delivering any substance use intervention.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Ribavirin for treating Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever.

PubMed

Johnson, Samuel; Henschke, Nicholas; Maayan, Nicola; Mills, Inga; Buckley, Brian S; Kakourou, Artemisia; Marshall, Rachel

2018-06-05

Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne disease that occurs in parts of Asia, Europe and Africa. Since 2000 the infection has caused epidemics in Turkey, Iran, Russia, Uganda and Pakistan. Good-quality general supportive medical care helps reduce mortality. There is uncertainty and controversy about treating CCHF with the antiviral drug ribavirin. To assess the effects of ribavirin for treating people with Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever. We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; the Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); MEDLINE (PubMed); Embase (OVID); Science Citation Index-Expanded, Social Sciences Citation index, conference proceedings (Web of Science); and CINAHL (EBSCOHost). We also searched the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov for trials in progress. We conducted all searches up to 16 October 2017. We also contacted experts in the field and obtained further studies from these sources. We evaluated studies assessing the use of ribavirin in people with suspected or confirmed Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever. We included randomised control trials (RCTs); non-randomised studies (NRSs) that included more than 10 participants designed as cohort studies with comparators; and case-control studies. Two review authors assessed eligibility, risk of bias, and extracted data. For non-randomized studies we used the ROBINS-I tool to assess risk of bias. The main effects analysis included all studies where we judged the risk of bias to be low, moderate or high. We summarized dichotomous outcomes using risk ratios (RRs) and continuous outcomes using mean differences (MDs), and used meta-analyses where appropriate. We carried out a subsidiary appraisal and analysis of studies with critical risk of bias for the primary outcome, as these are often cited to support using ribavirin. For the main effects analysis, five studies met our inclusion criteria: one RCT with 136 participants and four non-randomized studies with 612 participants. We excluded 18 non-randomized studies with critical risk of bias, where none had attempted to control for confounding.We do not know if ribavirin reduces mortality (1 RCT; RR 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29 to 4.32; 136 participants; very low-certainty evidence; 3 non-randomized studies; RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.28; 549 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We do not know if ribavirin reduces the length of stay in hospital (1 RCT: mean difference (MD) 0.70 days, 95% CI -0.39 to 1.79; 136 participants; and 1 non-randomized study: MD -0.80, 95% CI -2.70 to 1.10; 50 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We do not know if it reduces the risk of patients needing platelet transfusions (1 RCT: RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.96; 136 participants; very low-certainty evidence). For adverse effects (including haemolytic anaemia and a need to discontinue treatment), we do not know whether there is an increased risk with ribavirin in people with CCHF as data are insufficient.We do not know if adding ribavirin to early supportive care improves outcomes. One non-randomized study assessed mortality in people receiving ribavirin and supportive care within four days or less from symptom onset compared to after four days since symptom onset: mortality was lower in the group receiving early supportive care and ribavirin, but it is not possible to distinguish between the effects of ribavirin and early supportive medical care alone.In the subsidiary analysis, 18 studies compared people receiving ribavirin with those not receiving ribavirin. All had a critical risk of bias due to confounding, reflected in the mortality point estimates favouring ribavirin. We do not know if ribavirin is effective for treating Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever. Non-randomized studies are often cited as evidence of an effect, but the risk of bias in these studies is high.

Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and the risk of cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mocellin, Simone; Nitti, Donato

2008-11-01

It has been hypothesized that polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene affect the risk of developing melanoma. However, results often are conflicting, and no meta-analysis has been performed to date on published data. Six studies (cases, 2152; controls, 2410) that investigated the association between 5 VDR polymorphisms (TaqI, FokI, BsmI, EcoRV, and Cdx2) and the risk of melanoma were retrieved and analyzed. The model-free approach was applied to meta-analyze these molecular association studies. Available data suggested a significant association between the BsmI VDR polymorphism and melanoma risk (pooled odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.53; P= .002; heterogeneity Cochran Q test, P> .1), and the population-attributable risk was 9.2%. In contrast, the FokI polymorphism did not appear to be associated with such risk (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.99-1.21; P= .07; heterogeneity Cochran Q test, P> .1). For the TaqI and the EcoRV polymorphisms, significant between-study heterogeneity did not support genotype data pooling. Only 1 study investigated the Cdx2 variant, and the findings were negative. Current evidence is in favor of an association between 1 VDR gene polymorphism (BsmI) and the risk of developing melanoma. The current findings prompt further investigation on this subject and indirectly support the hypothesis that sun exposure may have an antimelanoma effect through activation of the vitamin D system.

[The urgent problems of the improvement of the environment management system based on the analysis of health risk assessment].

PubMed

Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L

2014-01-01

The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".

Dietary and circulating lycopene and stroke risk: a meta-analysis of prospective studies

PubMed Central

LI, Xinli; XU, Jiuhong

2014-01-01

Epidemiological studies support a protective role of lycopene against stroke occurrence or mortality, but the results have been conflicting. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between dietary or circulating lycopene and stroke risk (including stroke occurrence or mortality). Relevant papers were collected by screening the PubMed database through October 2013. Only prospective studies providing relative risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals for the association between lycopene and stroke were included. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled estimate. Subgroup analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various factors on the final results. The pooled analysis of seven prospective studies, with 116,127 participants and 1,989 cases, demonstrated that lycopene decreased stroke risk by 19.3% (RR = 0.807, 95% CI = 0.680–0.957) after adjusting for confounding factors. No heterogeneity was observed (p = 0.234, I2 = 25.5%). Circulating lycopene, not dietary lycopene, was associated with a statistically significant decrease in stroke risk (RR = 0.693, 95% CI = 0.503–0.954). Lycopene could protect European, or males against stroke risk. Duration of follow-up had no effect on the final results. There was no evidence of publication bias. Lycopene, especially circulating lycopene, is negatively associated with stroke risk. PMID:24848940

Emissions & Measurements - Black Carbon

EPA Science Inventory

Emissions and Measurement (EM) research activities performed within the National Risk Management Research Lab NRMRL) of EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) support measurement and laboratory analysis approaches to accurately characterize source emissions, and near sour...

Final analysis of cost, value, and risk.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-05

USDOT understands that access to emergency services provided by 9-1-1 in todays world of evolving : technology will ultimately occur within a broader array of interconnected networks comprehensively : supporting emergency servicesfrom public ac...

Regulatory Science in Professional Education.

PubMed

Akiyama, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.

[Relationship between grief support and burnout syndrome in professionals and technicians of pediatric health].

PubMed

Vega V, Paula; González R, Rina; Bustos M, José; Rojo S, Leticia; López E, María Eugenia; Rosas P, Amaia; Hasbún I, Carmen Gloria

2017-01-01

Detect the presence of Burnout and bereavement support of health professionals in oncology and pediatric intensive care units in Chilean public hospitals. Transversal design of descriptive correlational type. Auto-evaluation using the Maslach Burnout Inventory and Grief Support Health Care Scale instruments in 210 professionals and technicians. For the analysis of a means comparison, the t-student test was used and for the comparison between the variables, the correlations of Pearson and Spearman were used, considering a level of significance of 5%. 4% of the participants presented with Burnout and 71% were at risk of suffering it. 52% had a high level of perception of bereavement support, especially in women and oncology personnel. When correlating support in bereavement and Burnout, the data suggests that both the recognition of the bond, as well as the loss after death of a patient, helps decrease the depersonalization of the professional and improves their personal fulfillment. Professionals in areas of high pediatric complexity are at high risk of Burnout, due to greater emotional exhaustion and low personal accomplishment. However, a greater perception of recognition and support in their bereavement is a factor that can reduce that risk. Therefore, continuous intervention programs are required within these units, with concrete strategies for accompaniment, teamwork and mourning rituals.

Therapist-Supported Internet-Based Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Stress, Anxiety, and Depressive Symptoms Among Postpartum Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Lau, Ying; Htun, Tha Pyai; Wong, Suei Nee; Tam, Wai San Wilson; Klainin-Yobas, Piyanee

2017-04-28

A growing number of meta-analyses have supported the application of therapist-supported Internet-based cognitive behavior therapy (iCBT) for psychological disorders across different populations, but relatively few meta-analyses have concentrated on postpartum women. This meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy of therapist-supported iCBT in improving stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms among postpartum women. A total of 10 electronic databases were used to search for published and unpublished trials. Cochrane Collaboration tool for assessing risk of bias was utilized to measure methodological quality. Meta-analysis was performed using the RevMan software (Review Manager version 5.3 for Windows from the Nordic Cochrane Centre, the Cochrane Collaboration, 2014). Among the 789 studies identified, 8 randomized controlled trials were selected, involving 1523 participants across 6 countries. More than half (65%) of the eligible studies had a low risk of bias with no heterogeneity. Results revealed that therapist-supported iCBT significantly improved stress (d=0.84, n=5), anxiety (d=0.36, n=6), and depressive symptoms (d=0.63, n=8) of the intervention group compared with those of the control group at post-intervention. This review revealed that therapist-supported iCBT significantly improves stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms among postpartum women with small to large effects. Future effectiveness studies should establish the essential components, format, and approach of iCBT with optimal levels of human support to maximize a long-term effect. ©Ying Lau, Tha Pyai Htun, Suei Nee Wong, Wai San Wilson Tam, Piyanee Klainin-Yobas. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 28.04.2017.

Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

2011-07-01

The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene polymorphism and risk of chronic myelogenous leukemia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Yichao, Jin; Jiaxin, Lin; Yueting, Zhang; Qin, Lu; Tonghua, Yang

2015-01-01

Reported evidence supports a role for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) in the risk of chronic myelogenous leykemia (CML). However, these reports arrived at non-conclusive and even conflicting results regarding the association between two common MTHFR polymorphisms (C677T and A1298C) and CML risk. Thus, a meta-analysis was carried out to clarify a more precise association between these two polymorphisms and the CML risk by updating the available publications. Pooled odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and stratification analysis were performed to estimate the relationship between MTHFR polymorphisms and the risk of CML under different genetic comparison models. Data from the meta-analysis showed no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk. However, significant associations were found between MTHFR A1298C variants and CML risk under homozygous comparison model (CC vs AA, OR=1.62, 95% CI=1.11-2.36, p=0.01) and dominant comparison model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.17-2.43, p=0.005) in overall population; especially more obvious impacts were noticed for Asian populations in subgroup analysis for homozygous model (CC vs AA, OR=2.00, 95% CI=1.25-3.21, p=0.004) and dominant model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=2.49, 95% CI=1.42-4.36, p=0.001), but this did not apply in Caucasian populations. The results of this meta-analysis suggested no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk, while an increased CML risk was noticed for 1298C variant carriers, especially in Asian populations but not in Caucasian populations, which suggested ethnicity differences between MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms and risk of CML.

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

PubMed Central

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management system, e.g. focused on standards for individual pollutants and with separate goals for air toxics and ambient pollutants. However, additional improvements may be possible if goals and actions are defined in terms of risk metrics that are comparable across criteria pollutants and air toxics (hazardous air pollutants), and that encompass both human health and ecological risks. PMID:21209847

Systematic review of peer support for breastfeeding continuation: metaregression analysis of the effect of setting, intensity, and timing.

PubMed

Jolly, Kate; Ingram, Lucy; Khan, Khalid S; Deeks, Jonathan J; Freemantle, Nick; MacArthur, Christine

2012-01-25

To examine the effect of setting, intensity, and timing of peer support on breast feeding. Systematic review and metaregression analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cochrane Library, Medline, CINAHL, the National Research Register, and British Nursing Index were searched from inception or from 1980 to 2011. Review methods Study selection, data abstraction, and quality assessment were carried out independently and in duplicate. Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual studies and pooled. Effects were estimated for studies grouped according to setting (high income countries, low or middle income countries, and the United Kingdom), intensity (<5 and ≥5 planned contacts), and timing of peer support (postnatal period with or without antenatal care), and analysed using metaregression for any and exclusive breast feeding at last study follow-up. Peer support interventions had a significantly greater effect on any breast feeding in low or middle income countries (P<0.001), reducing the risk of not breast feeding at all by 30% (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.82) compared with a reduction of 7% (0.93, 0.87 to 1.00) in high income countries. Similarly, the risk of non-exclusive breast feeding decreased significantly more in low or middle income countries than in high income countries: 37% (0.63, 0.52 to 0.78) compared with 10% (0.90, 0.85 to 0.97); P=0.01. No significant effect on breast feeding was observed in UK based studies. Peer support had a greater effect on any breastfeeding rates when given at higher intensity (P=0.02) and only delivered in the postnatal period (P<0.001), although no differences were observed of its effect on exclusive breastfeeding rates by intensity or timing. Although peer support interventions increase breastfeeding continuation in low or middle income countries, especially exclusive breast feeding, this does not seem to apply in high income countries, particularly the United Kingdom, where breastfeeding support is part of routine postnatal healthcare. Peer support of low intensity does not seem to be effective. Policy relating to provision of peer support should be based on more specific evidence on setting and any new peer services in high income countries need to undergo concurrent evaluation.

Risk Factors Associated with Default from Multi- and Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment, Uzbekistan: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Lalor, Maeve K.; Greig, Jane; Allamuratova, Sholpan; Althomsons, Sandy; Tigay, Zinaida; Khaemraev, Atadjan; Braker, Kai; Telnov, Oleksander; du Cros, Philipp

2013-01-01

Background The Médecins Sans Frontières project of Uzbekistan has provided multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in the Karakalpakstan region since 2003. Rates of default from treatment have been high, despite psychosocial support, increasing particularly since programme scale-up in 2007. We aimed to determine factors associated with default in multi- and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis patients who started treatment between 2003 and 2008 and thus had finished approximately 2 years of treatment by the end of 2010. Methods A retrospective cohort analysis of multi- and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis patients enrolled in treatment between 2003 and 2008 compared baseline demographic characteristics and possible risk factors for default. Default was defined as missing ≥60 consecutive days of treatment (all drugs). Data were routinely collected during treatment and entered in a database. Potential risk factors for default were assessed in univariate analysis using chi-square test and in multivariate analysis with logistic regression. Results 20% (142/710) of patients defaulted after a median of 6 months treatment (IQR 2.6–9.9). Factors associated with default included severity of resistance patterns (pre-extensively drug-resistant/extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis adjusted odds ratio 0.52, 95%CI: 0.31–0.86), previous default (2.38, 1.09–5.24) and age >45 years (1.77, 1.10–2.87). The default rate was 14% (42/294) for patients enrolled 2003–2006 and 24% (100/416) for 2007–2008 enrolments (p = 0.001). Conclusions Default from treatment was high and increased with programme scale-up. It is essential to ensure scale-up of treatment is accompanied with scale-up of staff and patient support. A successful first course of tuberculosis treatment is important; patients who had previously defaulted were at increased risk of default and death. The protective effect of severe resistance profiles suggests that understanding disease severity or fear may motivate against default. Targeted health education and support for at-risk patients after 5 months of treatment when many begin to feel better may decrease default. PMID:24223148

Risk factors associated with default from multi- and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment, Uzbekistan: a retrospective cohort analysis.

PubMed

Lalor, Maeve K; Greig, Jane; Allamuratova, Sholpan; Althomsons, Sandy; Tigay, Zinaida; Khaemraev, Atadjan; Braker, Kai; Telnov, Oleksander; du Cros, Philipp

2013-01-01

The Médecins Sans Frontières project of Uzbekistan has provided multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in the Karakalpakstan region since 2003. Rates of default from treatment have been high, despite psychosocial support, increasing particularly since programme scale-up in 2007. We aimed to determine factors associated with default in multi- and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis patients who started treatment between 2003 and 2008 and thus had finished approximately 2 years of treatment by the end of 2010. A retrospective cohort analysis of multi- and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis patients enrolled in treatment between 2003 and 2008 compared baseline demographic characteristics and possible risk factors for default. Default was defined as missing ≥60 consecutive days of treatment (all drugs). Data were routinely collected during treatment and entered in a database. Potential risk factors for default were assessed in univariate analysis using chi-square test and in multivariate analysis with logistic regression. 20% (142/710) of patients defaulted after a median of 6 months treatment (IQR 2.6-9.9). Factors associated with default included severity of resistance patterns (pre-extensively drug-resistant/extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis adjusted odds ratio 0.52, 95%CI: 0.31-0.86), previous default (2.38, 1.09-5.24) and age >45 years (1.77, 1.10-2.87). The default rate was 14% (42/294) for patients enrolled 2003-2006 and 24% (100/416) for 2007-2008 enrolments (p = 0.001). Default from treatment was high and increased with programme scale-up. It is essential to ensure scale-up of treatment is accompanied with scale-up of staff and patient support. A successful first course of tuberculosis treatment is important; patients who had previously defaulted were at increased risk of default and death. The protective effect of severe resistance profiles suggests that understanding disease severity or fear may motivate against default. Targeted health education and support for at-risk patients after 5 months of treatment when many begin to feel better may decrease default.

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models that could quantify risk and provide a view of risk to support design and pricing of parametric disaster risk financing mechanisms. The third stage was to evaluate the usability of data sources and catastrophe models, and to develop index prototypes to outline how data and catastrophe models could be combined using local, regional and global data sources. Finally, the project identified priorities for investment to support the collection, analysis and evaluation of natural catastrophes in order to support disaster risk financing.

Life cycle cost-based risk model for energy performance contracting retrofits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berghorn, George H.

Buildings account for 41% of the primary energy consumption in the United States, nearly half of which is accounted for by commercial buildings. Among the greatest energy users are those in the municipalities, universities, schools, and hospitals (MUSH) market. Correctional facilities are in the upper half of all commercial building types for energy intensity. Public agencies have experienced reduced capital budgets to fund retrofits; this has led to the increased use of energy performance contracts (EPC), which are implemented by energy services companies (ESCOs). These companies guarantee a minimum amount of energy savings resulting from the retrofit activities, which in essence transfers performance risk from the owner to the contractor. Building retrofits in the MUSH market, especially correctional facilities, are well-suited to EPC, yet despite this potential and their high energy intensities, efficiency improvements lag behind that of other public building types. Complexities in project execution, lack of support for data requests and sub-metering, and conflicting project objectives have been cited as reasons for this lag effect. As a result, project-level risks must be understood in order to support wider adoption of retrofits in the public market, in particular the correctional facility sub-market. The goal of this research is to understand risks related to the execution of energy efficiency retrofits delivered via EPC in the MUSH market. To achieve this goal, in-depth analysis and improved understanding was sought with regard to ESCO risks that are unique to EPC in this market. The proposed work contributes to this understanding by developing a life cycle cost-based risk model to improve project decision making with regard to risk control and reduction. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) to perform an exploratory analysis of the EPC retrofit process and identify key areas of performance risk requiring in-depth analysis; (2) to construct a framework describing the sources of and mitigation strategies employed for assessing key risks in EPC retrofits; (3) to develop a strategy for analyzing and evaluating risks for EPC retrofits focused on managing expected costs throughout the project life cycle, and use data collected through this strategy to develop and parameterize a risk model; and (4) to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed life cost-based risk model through a pilot application to a case study site. Five major contributions to the body of knowledge resulting from the research include: (1) a consensus-based assessment of ESCO risk management; (2) characterization of EPC retrofit risks borne by ESCOs; (3) an empirical evaluation of scenario failure mode and effects analysis and its application to this domain; (4) development and pilot application of a life cycle cost-based risk model; and (5) future expansion of the research approach to other domains. The researcher envisions that full implementation of the research will further encourage the growth of the energy services industry, and support focused retrofits in complex building types that typically can benefit the most from such work. Ultimately, this will reduce the energy consumption of public sector buildings to levels that are more fitting with the global principles of sustainability and responsible management of constrained resources.

The Impact of Socioeconomic Status on Patients Supported with a Left Ventricular Assist Device: An Analysis of the UNOS Database

PubMed Central

Clerkin, Kevin J.; Garan, A. Reshad; Wayda, Brian; Givens, Raymond C.; Yuzefpolskaya, Melana; Nakagawa, Shunichi; Takeda, Koji; Takayama, Hiroo; Naka, Yoshifumi; Mancini, Donna M.; Colombo, Paolo C.; Topkara, Veli K.

2016-01-01

Background Low socioeconomic status (SES) is a known risk factor for heart failure, mortality among those with heart failure, and poor post heart transplant (HT) outcomes. This study sought to determine if SES is associated with decreased waitlist survival while on LVAD support and after HT. Methods and Results 3,361 adult patients bridged to primary HT with an LVAD between May 2004 and April 2014 were identified in the UNOS database. SES was measured using the AHRQ SES index using data from the 2014 American Community Survey. In the study cohort, SES did not have an association with the combined endpoint of death or delisting on LVAD support (p=0.30). In a cause-specific unadjusted model, those in the top (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.14–2.11, p=0.005) and second greatest SES quartile (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.10–2.04, p=0.01) had an increased risk of death on device support compared to the lowest SES quartile. Adjusting for clinical risk factors mitigated the increased risk. There was no association between SES and complications. Post-HT survival, both crude and adjusted, was decreased for patients in the lowest quartile of SES index compared to all other SES quartiles. Conclusions Freedom from waitlist death or delisting was not impacted by SES. Patients with a higher SES had an increased unadjusted risk of waitlist mortality during LVAD support, which was mitigated by adjusting for increased comorbid conditions. Low SES was associated with worse post-HT outcomes. Further study is needed to confirm and understand a differential effect of SES on post-transplant outcomes that was not seen during LVAD support prior to HT. PMID:27758810

Changing the System of Student Support in Norway: Intended and Unintended Effects on Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Opheim, V.

2011-01-01

In 2002 the student finance system in Norway went through a major restructuring. The changes included an increase in student support and an introduction of progression-dependent grants. Using two student welfare surveys conducted in 1998 and 2005, the paper analyses the effect of the changes on the students. The analysis compares the risk of study…

Are Dropout and Degree Completion in Doctoral Study Significantly Dependent on Type of Financial Support and Field of Research?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Haert, Margaux; Arias Ortiz, Elena; Emplit, Philippe; Halloin, Véronique; Dehon, Catherine

2014-01-01

In this article, the determinants of "time to dropout" from doctoral studies and "time to PhD completion" are studied using a discrete-time competing risks survival analysis for a sample of 3092 doctoral candidates from the Université libre de Bruxelles. Not surprisingly, results show that students supported with research…

[Risk factors for suicide attempt among college students at Central South University].

PubMed

Xu, Hui-lan; Xiao, Shui-yuan; Feng, Shan-shan; Chen, Xi-xi

2004-04-01

To understand the prevalence and risk factors for suicidal ideation among college students and to provide a scientific basis for promoting psychological health and suicide prevention. 623 college students at Central South University were selected using stratified cluster sampling and administered a suicide ideation questionnaire, a Symptom Check List (SCL-90), an Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Check List (ASLEC), a Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS) and a questionnaire about background information. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors for suicide ideation. One year prior to our investigation, 14.6% of respondents had suicide ideation, 2.5% had made a specific suicide plan, and 1.8% had made a suicide attempt. The main risk factors for suicide ideation were dissatisfaction with the selected major of study, limited social support, recent negative life events and depressive tendency. The prevalence of suicide ideation among these college students was high. Appropriate measures focusing on the risk factors identified in this study should be urgently developed to prevent suicides in college students.

A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia

2016-10-12

Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by "a posteriori" methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a "Healthy pattern" and a "Western pattern". The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08-1.65). In addition, the "Carbohydrate pattern", which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35-2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western ( p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate ( p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings.

A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia

2016-01-01

Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by “a posteriori” methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a “Healthy pattern” and a “Western pattern”. The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08–1.65). In addition, the “Carbohydrate pattern”, which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35–2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western (p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate (p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings. PMID:27754328

Analysis of Security Contractors in Deployed Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

35 2. Proper Training and Education .......................................................36 3. Improve Overall Contract Visibility...like to acknowledge the work of P. W. Singer , author of the book titled “Corporate Warriors,” whose dedicated research and thorough analysis on the...skills, including combat operations, strategic planning, intelligence, risk assessment, operational support, training , and technical skills.”3 CPFF

A Biologically Informed Framework for the Analysis of the PPAR Signaling Pathway using a Bayesian Network

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s ToxCastTM program seeks to combine advances in high-throughput screening technology with methodologies from statistics and computer science to develop high-throughput decision support tools for assessing chemical hazard and risk. To develop new methods of analysis of...

A new model for care population management.

PubMed

Williams, Jeni

2013-03-01

Steps toward building a population management model of care should include: Identifying the population that would be cared for through a population management initiative. Conducting an actuarial analysis for this population, reviewing historical utilization and cost data and projecting changes in utilization. Investing in data infrastructure that supports the exchange of data among providers and with payers. Determining potential exposure to downside risk and organizational capacity to assume this risk. Experimenting with payment models and care delivery approaches Hiring care coordinators to manage care for high-risk patients.

Structural social support and cardiovascular disease risk factors in Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes: results from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

PubMed

Hernandez, Rosalba; Carnethon, Mercedes; Giachello, Aida L; Penedo, Frank J; Wu, Donghong; Birnbaum-Weitzman, Orit; Giacinto, Rebeca Espinoza; Gallo, Linda C; Isasi, Carmen R; Schneiderman, Neil; Teng, Yanping; Zeng, Donglin; Daviglus, Martha L

2017-02-23

Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have yielded inconsistent findings on the associations of social support networks with cardiovascular health in Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes. We examined the cross-sectional associations of structural social support and traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in a diverse sample of Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes. This analysis included 2994 adult participants ages 18-74 with diabetes from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL - 2008-2011). Select items from the Social Network Inventory (SNI) were used to assess indices of structural social support, i.e. network size (number of children, parents, and in-laws) and frequency of familial contact. Standardized methods were used to measure abdominal obesity, BMI, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and smoking status. Multivariate regression was used to examine associations of structural support with individual CVD risk factors with demographics, acculturation, physical health, and psychological ill-being (depressive symptoms and anxiety) included as covariates. There were no significant cross-sectional associations of structural support indices with abdominal obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, or smoking status. There was a marginally significant (OR: 1.05; 95%CI 0.99-1.11) trend toward higher odds of obesity in participants reporting a larger family unit (including children, parents, and in-laws) and those with closer ties with extended family relatives (OR: 1.04; 95%CI 0.99-1.09). Structural social support was marginally associated with higher odds of obesity in Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes. Alternate forms of social support (e.g. healthcare professionals, friends, peers) should be further explored as potential markers of cardiac risk in Hispanics/Latinos with diabetes.

Preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump use in high-risk patients prior to coronary artery bypass graft surgery decreases the risk for morbidity and mortality-A meta-analysis of 9,212 patients.

PubMed

Deppe, Antje-Christin; Weber, Carolyn; Liakopoulos, Oliver J; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Slottosch, Ingo; Scherner, Maximilian; Kuhn, Elmar W; Choi, Yeong-Hoon; Wahlers, Thorsten

2017-03-01

Prophylactic intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support for high-risk patients before coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is controversial. This meta-analysis sought to determine the current role of preoperative IABP support. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized (RCT) and observational trials (OT) that fulfilled the following criteria: (1) Group comparison of patients with prophylactic IABP implantation before CABG with a control group; (2) reporting at least one desired clinical endpoint, including all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), and renal failure. Pooled treatment effects (odds ratio [OR] or weighted mean difference, and 95% confidence intervals [95%CI]) were assessed using a fixed or random effects model. A total of 9,212 patients from 23 studies (7 RCT, 16 OT) were identified after a literature search of major databases using a predefined keyword list. Absolute risk reduction for mortality in RCTs was 4.4% (OR 0.43; 95%CI 0.25-0.73; p = 0.0025). Prophylactic IABP use before CABG surgery also decreased the risk for myocardial infarction (OR 0.58; 95%CI 0.43-0.78; p = 0.004), CVA (OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.47-0.97; p = 0.042), and renal failure (OR 0.62; 95%CI 0.47-0.83; p = 0.0014). Length of intensive care unit stay (p < 0.0001) and length of hospital stay (p < 0.0001) were significantly reduced in patients with preoperative IABP use. Current evidence from RCT and OT suggests beneficial effects for the IABP in high-risk patients before CABG surgery. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of Suicide Attempters and Decedents in the U.S. Army: A Latent Class Analysis.

PubMed

Skopp, Nancy A; Smolenski, Derek J; Sheppard, Sean C; Bush, Nigel E; Luxton, David D

2016-08-01

A clearer understanding of risk factors for suicidal behavior among soldiers is of principal importance to military suicide prevention. It is unclear whether soldiers who attempt suicide and those who die by suicide have different patterns of risk factors. As such, preventive efforts aimed toward reducing suicide attempts and suicides, respectively, may require different strategies. We conducted a latent class analysis (LCA) to examine classes of risk factors among suicide attempters (n = 1,433) and decedents (n = 424). Both groups were represented by three classes: (1) External/Antisocial Risk Factors, (2) Mental Health Risk Factors, and (3) No Pattern. These findings support the conceptualization that military suicide attempters and decedents represent a single population. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Evaluating elements of trust: Race and class in risk communication in post-Katrina New Orleans.

PubMed

Battistoli, B F

2016-05-01

This study seeks to determine the relative influence of race and class on trust in sources of messages of environmental risk in post-Katrina New Orleans. It poses two hypotheses to test that influence: H1-African-Americans ("Blacks") trust risk message sources less than European American ("Whites") do and H2-The higher the socioeconomic class, the lower the trust in risk message sources. A 37-question telephone survey (landlines and cellphones) was conducted in Orleans Parish in 2012 (n = 414). The overall margin of error was ±4.8% at a 95% confidence interval. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed that the first hypothesis was rejected, while the second was supported. Additional data analysis revealed that frequency of use of sources of risk information appears to be a positive factor in building trust. © The Author(s) 2015.

Preliminary analysis of cost, value, and risk.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-02-12

The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) understands that access to emergency services provided by 9-1-1 in todays world of evolving technology will ultimately occur within a broader array of interconnected networks comprehensively supporting...

Geo-hazard harmonised data a driven process to environmental analysis system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipolloni, Carlo; Iadanza, Carla; Pantaloni, Marco; Trigila, Alessandro

2015-04-01

In the last decade an increase of damage caused by natural disasters has been recorded in Italy. To support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities, it need to give access to harmonized and customized data that is one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. In this contest has been developed SEIS and Copernicus-GEMES as infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, to integrates in its own system specifications and results from INSPIRE. The two landslide risk scenarios developed in different European projects driven the harmonization process of data that represents the basic element to have interoperable web services in environmental analysis system. From two different perspective we have built a common methodology to analyse dataset and transform them into INSPIRE compliant format following the Data Specification on Geology and on Natural Risk Zone given by INSPIRE. To ensure the maximum results and re-usability of data we have also applied to the landslide and geological datasets a wider Data model standard like GeoSciML, that represents the natural extension of INSPIRE data model to provide more information. The aim of this work is to present the first results of two projects concerning the data harmonisation process, where an important role is played by the semantic harmonisation using the ontology service and/or the hierarchy vocabularies available as Link Data or Link Open Data by means of URI directly in the data spatial services. It will be presented how the harmonised web services can provide an add value in a risk scenario analysis system, showing the first results of the landslide environmental analysis developed by the eENVplus and LIFE+IMAGINE projects.

NPS Government Purchase Card Program: An Analysis of Internal Controls

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

approving official APC agency program coordinator CCPMD Consolidated Card Program Management Division CH cardholder COSO Committee of Sponsoring...correct, and minimize fraud, waste, and abuse” (DPAP, 2011, p. 2-2). To minimize risks , the management and internal controls should have support from...three interrelated subjects: enterprise risk management (ERM), internal control, and fraud deterrence” (para. 6). The 23 five components of an

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

PubMed

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

PubMed

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of risk stratification to guide ambulatory management of neutropenic fever. Australian Consensus Guidelines 2011 Steering Committee.

PubMed

Worth, L J; Lingaratnam, S; Taylor, A; Hayward, A M; Morrissey, S; Cooney, J; Bastick, P A; Eek, R W; Wei, A; Thursky, K A

2011-01-01

Utilization of risk-stratification tools in the setting of neutropenic fever is currently limited by inadequate knowledge and lack of awareness. Within this context, the approach to management of low-risk patients with neutropenic fever is inconsistent with the available evidence across many Australian treating centres. These clinical guidelines define and clarify an accepted standard of care for this patient group given the current evidence base. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer risk index is presented as the preferred risk assessment tool for determining patient risk. Suitability of ambulatory care within specific patient populations is discussed, with defined eligibility criteria provided to guide clinical decision-making. Detailed recommendations for implementing appropriate ambulatory strategies, such as early discharge and outpatient antibiotic therapy, are also provided. Due consideration is given to infrastructural requirements and other supportive measures at a resourcing and operational level. An analysis of the relevant health economics is also presented. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Composable Framework Support for Software-FMEA Through Model Execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocsis, Imre; Patricia, Andras; Brancati, Francesco; Rossi, Francesco

2016-08-01

Performing Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) during software architecture design is becoming a basic requirement in an increasing number of domains; however, due to the lack of standardized early design phase model execution, classic SW-FMEA approaches carry significant risks and are human effort-intensive even in processes that use Model-Driven Engineering.Recently, modelling languages with standardized executable semantics have emerged. Building on earlier results, this paper describes framework support for generating executable error propagation models from such models during software architecture design. The approach carries the promise of increased precision, decreased risk and more automated execution for SW-FMEA during dependability- critical system development.

Systems Analysis of In-Space Manufacturing Applications for the International Space Station and the Evolvable Mars Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owens, Andrew C.; De Weck, Olivier L.

2016-01-01

Maintenance logistics support is a significant challenge for extended human operations in space, especially for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). For missions to Mars (such as NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC)), where timely resupply or abort in the event of emergency will not be possible, maintenance logistics mass is directly linked to the Probability of Loss of Crew (P(LoC)), and the cost of driving down risk is an exponential increase in mass requirements. The logistics support strategies that have maintained human operations in LEO will not be effective for these deep space missions. In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) is a promising technological solution that could reduce logistics requirements, mitigate risks, and augment operational capabilities, enabling Earth- independent human spaceflight. This paper reviews maintenance logistics challenges for spaceflight operations in LEO and beyond, and presents a summary of selected results from a systems analysis of potential ISM applications for the ISS and EMC. A quantitative modeling framework and sample assessment of maintenance logistics and risk reduction potential of this new technology is also presented and discussed.

A novel risk classification system for 30-day mortality in children undergoing surgery

PubMed Central

Walter, Arianne I.; Jones, Tamekia L.; Huang, Eunice Y.; Davis, Robert L.

2018-01-01

A simple, objective and accurate way of grouping children undergoing surgery into clinically relevant risk groups is needed. The purpose of this study, is to develop and validate a preoperative risk classification system for postsurgical 30-day mortality for children undergoing a wide variety of operations. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Project-Pediatric participant use file data for calendar years 2012–2014 was analyzed to determine preoperative variables most associated with death within 30 days of operation (D30). Risk groups were created using classification tree analysis based on these preoperative variables. The resulting risk groups were validated using 2015 data, and applied to neonates and higher risk CPT codes to determine validity in high-risk subpopulations. A five-level risk classification was found to be most accurate. The preoperative need for ventilation, oxygen support, inotropic support, sepsis, the need for emergent surgery and a do not resuscitate order defined non-overlapping groups with observed rates of D30 that vary from 0.075% (Very Low Risk) to 38.6% (Very High Risk). When CPT codes where death was never observed are eliminated or when the system is applied to neonates, the groupings remained predictive of death in an ordinal manner. PMID:29351327

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

Building a computer program to support children, parents, and distraction during healthcare procedures.

PubMed

Hanrahan, Kirsten; McCarthy, Ann Marie; Kleiber, Charmaine; Ataman, Kaan; Street, W Nick; Zimmerman, M Bridget; Ersig, Anne L

2012-10-01

This secondary data analysis used data mining methods to develop predictive models of child risk for distress during a healthcare procedure. Data used came from a study that predicted factors associated with children's responses to an intravenous catheter insertion while parents provided distraction coaching. From the 255 items used in the primary study, 44 predictive items were identified through automatic feature selection and used to build support vector machine regression models. Models were validated using multiple cross-validation tests and by comparing variables identified as explanatory in the traditional versus support vector machine regression. Rule-based approaches were applied to the model outputs to identify overall risk for distress. A decision tree was then applied to evidence-based instructions for tailoring distraction to characteristics and preferences of the parent and child. The resulting decision support computer application, titled Children, Parents and Distraction, is being used in research. Future use will support practitioners in deciding the level and type of distraction intervention needed by a child undergoing a healthcare procedure.

Safety analysts training

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolton, P.

The purpose of this task was to support ESH-3 in providing Airborne Release Fraction and Respirable Fraction training to safety analysts at LANL who perform accident analysis, hazard analysis, safety analysis, and/or risk assessments at nuclear facilities. The task included preparation of materials for and the conduct of two 3-day training courses covering the following topics: safety analysis process; calculation model; aerosol physic concepts for safety analysis; and overview of empirically derived airborne release fractions and respirable fractions.

Predictors of depressive symptoms in primary caregivers of young children with or at risk for developmental delay.

PubMed

Feldman, M; McDonald, L; Serbin, L; Stack, D; Secco, M L; Yu, C T

2007-08-01

Despite extensive research with families raising children with or at risk for developmental delay (DD), it is not clear whether primary caregivers of these children are at increased risk for depressive symptoms. Discrepant findings in the literature may be owing to heterogeneity of child problems. More research is needed on child, parent and family variables that may increase risk for, or resilience to, caregiver depressive symptoms. Some studies have found that parental resources (e.g. social support and coping strategies) may buffer the effects of parental distress, while other studies have highlighted the role of parental self-efficacy. We examined Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) scores in 178 primary caregivers (mainly biological mothers) who had 2-year-old children with or at risk for DD owing to: (a) low birthweight, prematurity or multiple birth (n = 58), (b) other known reasons (e.g. Down syndrome, spina bifida) (n = 67), or (c) unknown reasons (n = 69). We found that 20% (n = 35) of the caregivers scored above the BDI clinical cut-off for depression. Analysis of variance revealed that caregivers with elevated BDI scores had higher child behaviour problem and escape-avoidance coping scores, and lower social support and parent self-efficacy, compared with caregivers without depressive symptoms. Caregivers with children who had DD for unknown reasons had higher BDI scores than caregivers of the other two groups of children. Regression analyses showed that child behaviour problems, escape-avoidance coping strategies and social support predicted caregiver BDI scores, but caregiver self-efficacy only did so when entered independently of social support. Only social support mediated and (marginally) moderated the relationship between child behaviour problems and caregiver depressive symptoms. These findings suggest that early intervention programmes should carefully consider the interaction of child characteristics (e.g. Diagnosis and behaviour problems), caregiver resources (e.g. coping strategies and social support), and parental mental health and mood when planning and tailoring services for families of children with or at risk for DD.

Interventions for obtaining and maintaining employment in adults with severe mental illness, a network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Suijkerbuijk, Yvonne B; Schaafsma, Frederieke G; van Mechelen, Joost C; Ojajärvi, Anneli; Corbière, Marc; Anema, Johannes R

2017-09-12

People with severe mental illness show high rates of unemployment and work disability, however, they often have a desire to participate in employment. People with severe mental illness used to be placed in sheltered employment or were enrolled in prevocational training to facilitate transition to a competitive job. Now, there are also interventions focusing on rapid search for a competitive job, with ongoing support to keep the job, known as supported employment. Recently, there has been a growing interest in combining supported employment with other prevocational or psychiatric interventions. To assess the comparative effectiveness of various types of vocational rehabilitation interventions and to rank these interventions according to their effectiveness to facilitate competitive employment in adults with severe mental illness. In November 2016 we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsychINFO, and CINAHL, and reference lists of articles for randomised controlled trials and systematic reviews. We identified systematic reviews from which to extract randomised controlled trials. We included randomised controlled trials and cluster-randomised controlled trials evaluating the effect of interventions on obtaining competitive employment for adults with severe mental illness. We included trials with competitive employment outcomes. The main intervention groups were prevocational training programmes, transitional employment interventions, supported employment, supported employment augmented with other specific interventions, and psychiatric care only. Two authors independently identified trials, performed data extraction, including adverse events, and assessed trial quality. We performed direct meta-analyses and a network meta-analysis including measurements of the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). We assessed the quality of the evidence for outcomes within the network meta-analysis according to GRADE. We included 48 randomised controlled trials involving 8743 participants. Of these, 30 studied supported employment, 13 augmented supported employment, 17 prevocational training, and 6 transitional employment. Psychiatric care only was the control condition in 13 studies. Direct comparison meta-analysis of obtaining competitive employmentWe could include 18 trials with short-term follow-up in a direct meta-analysis (N = 2291) of the following comparisons. Supported employment was more effective than prevocational training (RR 2.52, 95% CI 1.21 to 5.24) and transitional employment (RR 3.49, 95% CI 1.77 to 6.89) and prevocational training was more effective than psychiatric care only (RR 8.96, 95% CI 1.77 to 45.51) in obtaining competitive employment.For the long-term follow-up direct meta-analysis, we could include 22 trials (N = 5233). Augmented supported employment (RR 4.32, 95% CI 1.49 to 12.48), supported employment (RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.68) and prevocational training (RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.07 to 4.46) were more effective than psychiatric care only. Augmented supported employment was more effective than supported employment (RR 1.94, 95% CI 1.03 to 3.65), transitional employment (RR 2.45, 95% CI 1.69 to 3.55) and prevocational training (RR 5.42, 95% CI 1.08 to 27.11). Supported employment was more effective than transitional employment (RR 3.28, 95% CI 2.13 to 5.04) and prevocational training (RR 2.31, 95% CI 1.85 to 2.89). Network meta-analysis of obtaining competitive employmentWe could include 22 trials with long-term follow-up in a network meta-analysis.Augmented supported employment was the most effective intervention versus psychiatric care only in obtaining competitive employment (RR 3.81, 95% CI 1.99 to 7.31, SUCRA 98.5, moderate-quality evidence), followed by supported employment (RR 2.72 95% CI 1.55 to 4.76; SUCRA 76.5, low-quality evidence).Prevocational training (RR 1.26, 95% CI 0.73 to 2.19; SUCRA 40.3, very low-quality evidence) and transitional employment were not considerably different from psychiatric care only (RR 1.00,95% CI 0.51 to 1.96; SUCRA 17.2, low-quality evidence) in achieving competitive employment, but prevocational training stood out in the SUCRA value and rank.Augmented supported employment was slightly better than supported employment, but not significantly (RR 1.40, 95% CI 0.92 to 2.14). The SUCRA value and mean rank were higher for augmented supported employment.The results of the network meta-analysis of the intervention subgroups favoured augmented supported employment interventions, but also cognitive training. However, supported employment augmented with symptom-related skills training showed the best results (RR compared to psychiatric care only 3.61 with 95% CI 1.03 to 12.63, SUCRA 80.3).We graded the quality of the evidence of the network ranking as very low because of potential risk of bias in the included studies, inconsistency and publication bias. Direct meta-analysis of maintaining competitive employment Based on the direct meta-analysis of the short-term follow-up of maintaining employment, supported employment was more effective than: psychiatric care only, transitional employment, prevocational training, and augmented supported employment.In the long-term follow-up direct meta-analysis, augmented supported employment was more effective than prevocational training (MD 22.79 weeks, 95% CI 15.96 to 29.62) and supported employment (MD 10.09, 95% CI 0.32 to 19.85) in maintaining competitive employment. Participants receiving supported employment worked more weeks than those receiving transitional employment (MD 17.36, 95% CI 11.53 to 23.18) or prevocational training (MD 11.56, 95% CI 5.99 to 17.13).We did not find differences between interventions in the risk of dropouts or hospital admissions. Supported employment and augmented supported employment were the most effective interventions for people with severe mental illness in terms of obtaining and maintaining employment, based on both the direct comparison analysis and the network meta-analysis, without increasing the risk of adverse events. These results are based on moderate- to low-quality evidence, meaning that future studies with lower risk of bias could change these results. Augmented supported employment may be slightly more effective compared to supported employment alone. However, this difference was small, based on the direct comparison analysis, and further decreased with the network meta-analysis meaning that this difference should be interpreted cautiously. More studies on maintaining competitive employment are needed to get a better understanding of whether the costs and efforts are worthwhile in the long term for both the individual and society.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR THE GROUND WATER RULE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Ground Water Rule Economic Analysis provides a description of the need for the rule, consideration of regulatory alternatives, baseline analysis including national ground water system profile and an estimate of pathogen and indicator occurrence (Chapter 4), a risk assessment and benefits analysis (Chapter 5), and a cost analysis ( Chapter 6). Chapters 4, 5 and 6, selected appendices and sections of other chapters will be peer reviewed. The objective of the Economic Analysis Document is to support the final Ground Water Rule.

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scroggins, Sharon

2008-01-01

NASA's Agency-wide.resource for identifying and managing risks associated with changing environmental regulations Goals of the RRAC PC: 1) Proactively. detect, analyze and communicate environmental regulatory risks to NASA Programs and facilities; 2) Communicate with regulators and participate in the mitigation of such risks; and 3) Provide centralized support on emerging regulations to NASA HQ Environmental Management Division. When significant regulatory changes are identified, timely communication is essential. Communication of changing requirements to the regulatory stakeholders - NASA Programs and Facilities. Communication of potential issues to management and, when appropriate, back to the regulating agency.

Escalation to Major Depressive Disorder among adolescents with subthreshold depressive symptoms: evidence of distinct subgroups at risk.

PubMed

Hill, Ryan M; Pettit, Jeremy W; Lewinsohn, Peter M; Seeley, John R; Klein, Daniel N

2014-04-01

The presence of subthreshold depressive symptoms (SubD) in adolescence is associated with high prospective risk of developing Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). Little is known about variables that predict escalation from SubD to MDD. This study used a longitudinal prospective design in a community sample of adolescents to identify combinations of risk factors that predicted escalation from SubD to MDD. Classification tree analysis was used to identify combinations of risk factors that improved the sensitivity and specificity of prediction of MDD onset among 424 adolescents with a lifetime history of SubD. Of the 424, 144 developed MDD during the follow-up period. Evidence for multiple subgroups was found: among adolescents with poor friend support, the highest risk of escalation was among participants with lifetime histories of an anxiety or substance use disorder. Among adolescents with high friend support, those reporting multiple major life events in the past year or with a history of an anxiety disorder were at highest risk of escalation. Study findings may not inform prevention efforts for individuals who first develop SubD during adulthood. This study did not examine the temporal ordering of predictors involved in escalation from SubD to MDD. Adolescents with a history of SubD were at highest risk of escalation to MDD in the presence of poor friend support and an anxiety or substance use disorder, or in the presence of better friend support, multiple major life events, and an anxiety disorder. Findings may inform case identification approaches for adolescent depression prevention programs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

PubMed

Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

2015-01-01

This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2013-04-01

Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model and the knowledge collected from experts. The visualization of the risk reduction scenarios can also be shared among the users on the web to support the on-line participatory process. In addition, cost-benefit ratios of the different risk reduction scenarios can be prepared in order to serve as inputs for high-level decision makers. The most appropriate risk reduction scenarios will be chosen using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method by weighting different parameters according to the preferences and criteria defined by the users. The role of public participation has been changing from one-way communication between authorities, experts, stakeholders and citizens towards more intensive two-way interaction. Involving the affected public and interest groups can enhance the level of legitimacy, transparency, and confidence in the decision making process. Due to its important part in decision making, online participatory tool is included in the DSS in order to allow the involved stakeholders interactively in risk reduction and be aware of the existing vulnerability conditions of the community. Moreover, it aims to achieve a more transparent and better informed decision-making process. The system is under in progress and the first tools implemented will be presented showing the wide possibilities of new web technologies which can have a great impact on the decision making process. It will be applied in four pilot areas in Europe: French Alps, North Eastern Italy, Romania and Poland. Nevertheless, the framework will be designed and implemented in a way to be applicable in any other regions.

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

Soy Consumption and the Risk of Prostate Cancer: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Ranard, Katherine M.; Jeon, Sookyoung; Erdman, John W.

2018-01-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in men, accounting for 15% of all cancers in men worldwide. Asian populations consume soy foods as part of a regular diet, which may contribute to the lower PCa incidence observed in these countries. This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive updated analysis that builds on previously published meta-analyses, demonstrating that soy foods and their isoflavones (genistein and daidzein) are associated with a lower risk of prostate carcinogenesis. Thirty articles were included for analysis of the potential impacts of soy food intake, isoflavone intake, and circulating isoflavone levels, on both primary and advanced PCa. Total soy food (p < 0.001), genistein (p = 0.008), daidzein (p = 0.018), and unfermented soy food (p < 0.001) intakes were significantly associated with a reduced risk of PCa. Fermented soy food intake, total isoflavone intake, and circulating isoflavones were not associated with PCa risk. Neither soy food intake nor circulating isoflavones were associated with advanced PCa risk, although very few studies currently exist to examine potential associations. Combined, this evidence from observational studies shows a statistically significant association between soy consumption and decreased PCa risk. Further studies are required to support soy consumption as a prophylactic dietary approach to reduce PCa carcinogenesis. PMID:29300347

Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

PubMed

Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

2015-09-01

Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

2017-10-01

Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

2010-12-01

Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

Effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on perinatal and maternal mortality: meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Wilson, Amie; Gallos, Ioannis D; Plana, Nieves; Lissauer, David; Khan, Khalid S; Zamora, Javier; MacArthur, Christine

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on the outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal death in developing countries. Design Systematic review with meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, the Allied and Complementary Medicine database, British Nursing Index, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, BioMed Central, PsycINFO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature database, African Index Medicus, Web of Science, Reproductive Health Library, and Science Citation Index (from inception to April 2011), without language restrictions. Search terms were “birth attend*”, “traditional midwife”, “lay birth attendant”, “dais”, and “comadronas”. Review methods We selected randomised and non-randomised controlled studies with outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal mortality. Two independent reviewers undertook data extraction. We pooled relative risks separately for the randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, using a random effects model. Results We identified six cluster randomised controlled trials (n=138 549) and seven non-randomised controlled studies (n=72 225) that investigated strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants. All six randomised controlled trials found a reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes; our meta-analysis showed significant reductions in perinatal death (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.88, P<0.001; number needed to treat 35, 24 to 70) and neonatal death (0.79, 0.69 to 0.88, P<0.001; 98, 66 to 170). Meta-analysis of the non-randomised studies also showed a significant reduction in perinatal mortality (0.70, 0.57 to 0.84, p<0.001; 48, 32 to 96) and neonatal mortality (0.61, 0.48 to 0.75, P<0.001; 96, 65 to 168). Six studies reported on maternal mortality and our meta-analysis showed a non-significant reduction (three randomised trials, relative risk 0.79, 0.53 to 1.05, P=0.12; three non-randomised studies, 0.80, 0.44 to 1.15, P=0.26). Conclusion Perinatal and neonatal deaths are significantly reduced with strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants. PMID:22134967

Effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on perinatal and maternal mortality: meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wilson, Amie; Gallos, Ioannis D; Plana, Nieves; Lissauer, David; Khan, Khalid S; Zamora, Javier; MacArthur, Christine; Coomarasamy, Arri

2011-12-01

To assess the effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on the outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal death in developing countries. Systematic review with meta-analysis. Medline, Embase, the Allied and Complementary Medicine database, British Nursing Index, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, BioMed Central, PsycINFO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature database, African Index Medicus, Web of Science, Reproductive Health Library, and Science Citation Index (from inception to April 2011), without language restrictions. Search terms were "birth attend*", "traditional midwife", "lay birth attendant", "dais", and "comadronas". Review methods We selected randomised and non-randomised controlled studies with outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal mortality. Two independent reviewers undertook data extraction. We pooled relative risks separately for the randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, using a random effects model. We identified six cluster randomised controlled trials (n=138 549) and seven non-randomised controlled studies (n=72 225) that investigated strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants. All six randomised controlled trials found a reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes; our meta-analysis showed significant reductions in perinatal death (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.88, P<0.001; number needed to treat 35, 24 to 70) and neonatal death (0.79, 0.69 to 0.88, P<0.001; 98, 66 to 170). Meta-analysis of the non-randomised studies also showed a significant reduction in perinatal mortality (0.70, 0.57 to 0.84, p<0.001; 48, 32 to 96) and neonatal mortality (0.61, 0.48 to 0.75, P<0.001; 96, 65 to 168). Six studies reported on maternal mortality and our meta-analysis showed a non-significant reduction (three randomised trials, relative risk 0.79, 0.53 to 1.05, P=0.12; three non-randomised studies, 0.80, 0.44 to 1.15, P=0.26). Perinatal and neonatal deaths are significantly reduced with strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants.

International trade in live molluscs: perspective from the Americas.

PubMed

Elston, R A

1996-06-01

There is an active world trade in seed and edible molluscs, including such species as oysters, abalones, clams, scallops, and mussels. The supply of new and effectively-produced products, such as triploid oyster seed, is likely to increase due to greater world-wide demand for these high-value products, together with improved technology. Transfer to live molluscs is driven by need an availability, with concern over infectious disease risks often playing subordinate role or serving to support economic trade barriers. Experience shows that serious risks from infectious disease transfer exist. Technology and balanced management, however, can limit such risks. Separation of biological risks from trade control objectives is a necessary first step. A systematic method of risk analysis is urgently needed, along with predefined actions which can be adapted to the various risk levels. Critical to the effective development and implementation of this risk analysis is the participation of the shellfish industry in defining risks and actions. Organization and infrastructure to improve recognition of infectious diseases and decrease response time are necessary improvements, together with appropriately-targeted research on impacts, diagnosis, epidemiology, carrier status, and geographical distribution of diseases.

Dietary Choline and Betaine and Risk of CVD: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

PubMed Central

Meyer, Katie A.; Shea, Jonathan W.

2017-01-01

Studies implicate choline and betaine metabolite trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) in cardiovascular disease (CVD). We conducted a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis to quantify a summary estimated effect of dietary choline and betaine on hard CVD outcomes (incidence and mortality). Eligible studies were prospective studies in adults with comprehensive diet assessment and follow-up for hard CVD endpoints. We identified six studies that met our criteria, comprising 18,076 incident CVD events, 5343 CVD deaths, and 184,010 total participants. In random effects meta-analysis, incident CVD was not associated with choline (relative risk (RR): 1.00; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.02) or betaine (RR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.01) intake. Results did not vary by study outcome (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, total CVD) and there was no evidence for heterogeneity among studies. Only two studies provided data on phosphatidylcholine and CVD mortality. Random effects meta-analysis did not support an association between choline and CVD mortality (RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.35), but one study supported a positive association and there was significant heterogeneity (I2 = 84%, p-value < 0.001). Our findings do not support an association between dietary choline/betaine with incident CVD, but call for further research into choline and CVD mortality. PMID:28686188

Dietary Choline and Betaine and Risk of CVD: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.

PubMed

Meyer, Katie A; Shea, Jonathan W

2017-07-07

Studies implicate choline and betaine metabolite trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) in cardiovascular disease (CVD). We conducted a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis to quantify a summary estimated effect of dietary choline and betaine on hard CVD outcomes (incidence and mortality). Eligible studies were prospective studies in adults with comprehensive diet assessment and follow-up for hard CVD endpoints. We identified six studies that met our criteria, comprising 18,076 incident CVD events, 5343 CVD deaths, and 184,010 total participants. In random effects meta-analysis, incident CVD was not associated with choline (relative risk (RR): 1.00; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.02) or betaine (RR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.01) intake. Results did not vary by study outcome (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, total CVD) and there was no evidence for heterogeneity among studies. Only two studies provided data on phosphatidylcholine and CVD mortality. Random effects meta-analysis did not support an association between choline and CVD mortality (RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.35), but one study supported a positive association and there was significant heterogeneity ( I ² = 84%, p -value < 0.001). Our findings do not support an association between dietary choline/betaine with incident CVD, but call for further research into choline and CVD mortality.

An overview of safety assessment, regulation, and control of hazardous material use at NREL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, B. P.; Crandall, R. S.; Moskowitz, P. D.; Fthenakis, V. M.

1992-12-01

This paper summarizes the methodology we use to ensure the safe use of hazardous materials at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). First, we analyze the processes and the materials used in those processes to identify the hazards presented. Then we study federal, state, and local regulations and apply the relevant requirements to our operations. When necessary, we generate internal safety documents to consolidate this information. We design research operations and support systems to conform to these requirements. Before we construct the systems, we perform a semiquantitative risk analysis on likely accident scenarios. All scenarios presenting an unacceptable risk require system or procedural modifications to reduce the risk. Following these modifications, we repeat the risk analysis to ensure that the respective accident scenarios present an acceptable risk. Once all risks are acceptable, we conduct an operational readiness review (ORR). A management-appointed panel performs the ORR ensuring compliance with all relevant requirements. After successful completion of the ORR, operations can begin.

Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

PubMed Central

Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

Utilization Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB)

DOE Data Explorer

Jordan, Teresa E.

2015-09-30

This submission of Utilization Analysis data to the Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS) is in support of Phase 1 Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (project DE-EE0006726). The submission includes data pertinent to the methods and results of an analysis of the Surface Levelized Cost of Heat (SLCOH) for US Census Bureau Places within the study area. This was calculated using a modification of a program called GEOPHIRES, available at http://koenraadbeckers.net/geophires/index.php. The MATLAB modules used in conjunction with GEOPHIRES, the MATLAB data input file, the GEOPHIRES output data file, and an explanation of the software components have been provided. Results of the SLCOH analysis appear on 4 .png image files as mapped risk of heat utilization. For each of the 4 image (.png) files, there is an accompanying georeferenced TIF (.tif) file by the same name. In addition to calculating SLCOH, this Task 4 also identified many sites that may be prospects for use of a geothermal district heating system, based on their size and industry, rather than on the SLCOH. An industry sorted listing of the sites (.xlsx) and a map of these sites plotted as a layer onto different iterations of maps combining the three geological risk factors (Thermal Quality, Natural Reservoir Quality, and Risk of Seismicity) has been provided. In addition to the 6 image (.png) files of the maps in this series, a shape (.shp) file and 7 associated files are included as well. Finally, supporting files (.pdf) describing the utilization analysis methodology and summarizing the anticipated permitting for a deep district heating system are supplied. UPDATE: Newer version of the Utilization Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/878

Climate change and the effects of dengue upon Australia: An analysis of health impacts and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newth, D.; Gunasekera, D.

2010-08-01

Projected regional warming and climate change analysis and health impact studies suggest that Australia is potentially vulnerable to increased occurrence of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. Expansion of the dengue fever host, Aedes aegypti could potentially pose a significant public health risk. To manage such health risks, there is a growing need to focus on adaptive risk management strategies. In this paper, we combine analyses from climate, biophysical and economic models with a high resolution population model for disease spread, the EpiCast model to analyse the health impacts and costs of spread of dengue fever. We demonstrate the applicability of EpiCast as a decision support tool to evaluate mitigation strategies to manage the public health risks associated with shifts in the distribution of dengue fever in Australia.

The effect of telephone support to evacuees with risks of hypertension and diabetes mellitus after a disaster: the Fukushima Health Management Survey.

PubMed

Horikoshi, Naoko; Ohira, Tetsuya; Yasumura, Seiji; Yabe, Hirooki; Maeda, Masaharu

2017-01-01

Objectives　Fukushima Medical University has been conducting the Fukushima Health Management Survey "Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey" annually as part of the health care of evacuees following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.　This study aimed to clarify the effects of telephone support performed by nurses or public health nurses. In particular, we investigated the response rates for questionnaire of the following year and the recommended effect of medical support for evacuees with risks of hypertension and diabetes mellitus in the fiscal year 2011 (FY2011).Methods　The study population included evacuees (1,620 people) with risks of hypertension and diabetes mellitus in FY2011. We compared the participants' responses to the FY2012 survey and medical results based on those who received telephone support and those who did not.Results　Evacuees who have received telephone support (telephone supporters) comprised 1,078 people. Evacuees who did not receive telephone support (non-telephone supporters) comprised 542 people.　Telephone supporters consisted of more people from outside Fukushima prefecture (P=0.001), with above high school education (P<0.001), and who were unemployed (P<0.001) compared to non-telephone supporters.　For the FY2012 survey, 616 telephone supporters responded (57.1%), while 248 non-telephone supporters responded (45.8%). The response rate of telephone supporters was significantly higher compared to non-telephone supporters for the FY2012 questionnaire (P<0.001).　In addition, 184 (29.9%) telephone supporters and 68 (27.4%) non-telephone supporters underwent the medical examination.　In the multivariate analysis, responses to the FY2012 questionnaire were significantly associated with receiving telephone support (P=0.016).Conclusion　Telephone supporters had higher response rates for the questionnaire the following year compared to non-telephone supporters. Therefore, telephone support was effective in increasing the questionnaire response rate during the following year.

The strategy of training staff for a new type of helicopter as an element of raising the security level of flight operations.

PubMed

Gałązkowski, Robert; Wołkowski, Władysław; Mikos, Marcin; Szajda, Sławomir; Wejnarski, Arkadiusz; Świeżewski, Stanisław Paweł

2015-01-01

In 2008, the Polish Medical Air Rescue started replacing its fleet with modern EC135 machines. To ensure the maximum possible safety of the missions performed both in the period of implementing the change and later on, the management prepared a strategy of training its crews to use the new type of helicopter. The analysis of incidents that occurred during 2006-2009 showed that both the human and the technical factors must be carefully considered. Moreover, a risk analysis was conducted to reduce the risk both during general crew training and in the course of particular flight operations. A four-stage strategy of training pilots and crew members was worked out by weighing up all the risks. The analysis of data from 2010 to 2013 confirmed that the risk connected with flying and with all the activities involved in direct support aircraft operations is under control and lowered to an acceptable level.

The strategy of training staff for a new type of helicopter as an element of raising the security level of flight operations

PubMed Central

Gałązkowski, Robert; Wołkowski, Władysław; Mikos, Marcin; Szajda, Sławomir; Wejnarski, Arkadiusz; Świeżewski, Stanisław Paweł

2015-01-01

In 2008, the Polish Medical Air Rescue started replacing its fleet with modern EC135 machines. To ensure the maximum possible safety of the missions performed both in the period of implementing the change and later on, the management prepared a strategy of training its crews to use the new type of helicopter. The analysis of incidents that occurred during 2006–2009 showed that both the human and the technical factors must be carefully considered. Moreover, a risk analysis was conducted to reduce the risk both during general crew training and in the course of particular flight operations. A four-stage strategy of training pilots and crew members was worked out by weighing up all the risks. The analysis of data from 2010 to 2013 confirmed that the risk connected with flying and with all the activities involved in direct support aircraft operations is under control and lowered to an acceptable level. PMID:26694009

Capacity of scour-damaged bridges, part 2 : Integrated Analysis Program (IAP) - a program for the analysis of lateral performance of pile-supported structures under scour conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Scour is the removal of soils in the vicinity of bridge foundations, resulting in a reduced capacity of the foundations, which can increase the risk of bridge : failure. To minimize bridge failure, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has establ...

Capacity of scour-damaged bridges, part 2 : Integrated Analysis Program (IAP) - a program for the analysis of lateral performance of pile-supported structures under scour conditions, [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Scour is the removal of soils in the vicinity of bridge foundations, resulting in a reduced capacity of the foundations, which can increase the risk of bridge failure. To minimize bridge failure, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has establis...

Upstream Disaster Management to Support People Experiencing Homelessness.

PubMed

Sundareswaran, Madura; Ghazzawi, Andrea; O'Sullivan, Tracey L

2015-08-18

The unique context of day-to-day living for people who are chronically homeless or living with housing insecurity puts them at high risk during community disasters. The impacts of extreme events, such as flooding, storms, riots, and other sources of community disruption, underscore the importance of preparedness efforts and fostering community resilience. This study is part of larger initiative focused on enhancing resilience and preparedness among high risk populations. The purpose of this study was to explore critical issues and strategies to promote resilience and disaster preparedness among people who are homeless in Canada. A sample of interviews (n=21) from key informants across Canada was analyzed to explore existing programs and supports for homeless populations. The data was selected from a larger sample of (n=43) interviews focused on programs and supports for people who are at heightened risk for negative impacts during disasters. Qualitative content analysis was used to extract emergent themes and develop a model of multi-level collaboration to support disaster resilience among people who are homeless. The results indicate there is a need for more upstream continuity planning, collaboration and communication between the emergency management sector and community service organizations that support people who are homeless. Prioritization and investment in the social determinants of health and community supports is necessary to promote resilience among this high-risk population. The findings from this study highlight the importance of acknowledging community support organizations as assets in disaster preparedness. Day-to-day resilience is an ongoing theme for people who are chronically homeless or living with housing insecurity. Upstream investment to build adaptive capacity and collaborate with community organizations is an important strategy to enhance community resilience.

Maternal Characteristics Associated With Social Support in At-Risk Mothers of Premature Infants.

PubMed

White-Traut, Rosemary; Rankin, Kristin; Fabiyi, Camille; Liu, Li; Cheung, Irene; Norr, Kathleen

To identify maternal characteristics associated with social support among new mothers of premature infants who are at social-environmental risk. Cross-sectional analysis of intake interview data from a larger randomized controlled trial of a mother-premature infant developmentally based intervention. Two urban community-based hospitals. One hundred ninety-four women (50% Black, 50% Hispanic) who recently gave birth to otherwise healthy, premature (29-34 weeks gestational age) infants. Participants had at least 2 of 10 social-environmental risks (e.g., poverty). In-hospital interviews were conducted to obtain data on sociodemographic characteristics, prior mental health problems, and social support through the use of the Personal Resources Questionnaire 2000. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with social support. Mean Personal Resources Questionnaire 2000 scores were significantly lower for Hispanic than Black participants (92.0 vs. 96.0, respectively), those interviewed in Spanish versus English (89.8 vs. 96.1), those with low versus age-appropriate education levels (89.7 vs. 95.3), multiparous versus primiparous women (92.7 vs. 96.0), and those reporting versus not reporting histories of mental health problems (84.7 vs. 94.8). After multivariable adjustment, only younger age, Spanish language preference, multiparity, and a history of mental health problems were associated with significantly lower levels of social support (R 2  = 0.18). More programs should be made available to provide social support to at-risk mothers, especially younger mothers, and those with limited English ability, other children at home, or histories of mental health problems. Nurses should target these mothers for additional support during their premature infants' NICU stay. Copyright © 2017 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alzheimer disease and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Hai-bin; Tang, Bo; Liu, Yao-Wen; Wang, Xue-Feng; Chen, Guo-Jun

2015-03-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) and cancer are seemingly two opposite ends of one spectrum. Studies have suggested that patients with AD showed a reduced risk of cancer and vice versa. However, available evidences are not conclusive. So we conducted a meta-analysis using published literatures to systematically examine cancer risk in AD patients. A PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science search were conducted in May 2014. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) with their corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using random-effects meta-analysis. We tested for publication bias and heterogeneity, and stratified for study characteristics, smoking-related cancers versus nonsmoking-related cancers, and site-specific cancers. Nine studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with controls, the pooled RR of cancer in AD patients was 0.55 (95 % CI 0.41-0.75), with significant heterogeneity among these studies (P < 0.001, I(2) = 83.5 %). The reduced cancer risk was more substantial when we restricted analyses to cohort studies, studies with adjusted estimates, studies defining AD by generally accepted criteria, and studies with longer length of follow-up. In sub-analyses for site-specific cancers, only lung cancer showed significant decreased risk (RR 0.72; 95 % CI 0.56-0.91). We did not find significant publication bias (P = 0.251 for Begg and Mazumdar's test and P = 0.143 for Egger's regression asymmetry test). These results support an association between AD and decreased cancer risk.

Genetic polymorphisms of xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene Asp312Asn and Lys751Gln and susceptibility to prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Qingtong; Qi, Can; Tie, Chong; Guo, Zhanjun

2013-11-10

Many studies have reported the role of xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD) with prostate cancer risk, but the results remained controversial. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship, a meta-analysis was performed. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to assess the association between XPD Asp312Asn and Lys751Gln polymorphisms and prostate cancer risk. A total of 8 studies including 2620 cases and 3225 controls described Asp312Asn genotypes, among which 10 articles involving 3230 cases and 3582 controls described Lys751Gln genotypes and were also involved in this meta-analysis. When all the eligible studies were pooled into this meta-analysis, a significant association between prostate cancer risk and XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism was found. For Asp312Asn polymorphism, in the stratified analysis by ethnicity and source of controls, prostate cancer risk was observed in co-dominant, dominant and recessive models, while no evidence of any associations of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with prostate cancer was found in the overall or subgroup analyses. Our meta-analysis supports that the XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism contributed to the risk of prostate cancer from currently available evidence. However, a study with a larger sample size is needed to further evaluate gene-environment interaction on XPD Asp312Asn and Lys751Gln polymorphisms and prostate cancer risk. © 2013.

Qualitative insights into how men with low-risk prostate cancer choosing active surveillance negotiate stress and uncertainty.

PubMed

Mader, Emily M; Li, Hsin H; Lyons, Kathleen D; Morley, Christopher P; Formica, Margaret K; Perrapato, Scott D; Irwin, Brian H; Seigne, John D; Hyams, Elias S; Mosher, Terry; Hegel, Mark T; Stewart, Telisa M

2017-05-08

Active surveillance is a management strategy for men diagnosed with early-stage, low-risk prostate cancer in which their cancer is monitored and treatment is delayed. This study investigated the primary coping mechanisms for men following the active surveillance treatment plan, with a specific focus on how these men interact with their social network as they negotiate the stress and uncertainty of their diagnosis and treatment approach. Thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews at two academic institutions located in the northeastern US. Participants include 15 men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer following active surveillance. The decision to follow active surveillance reflects the desire to avoid potentially life-altering side effects associated with active treatment options. Men on active surveillance cope with their prostate cancer diagnosis by both maintaining a sense of control over their daily lives, as well as relying on the support provided them by their social networks and the medical community. Social networks support men on active surveillance by encouraging lifestyle changes and serving as a resource to discuss and ease cancer-related stress. Support systems for men with low-risk prostate cancer do not always interface directly with the medical community. Spousal and social support play important roles in helping men understand and accept their prostate cancer diagnosis and chosen care plan. It may be beneficial to highlight the role of social support in interventions targeting the psychosocial health of men on active surveillance.

Economic Evaluation of Implant-Supported Overdentures in Edentulous Patients: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Jin, Xin; Yu, Mengliu; Ou, Guoming; Matsui, Hiroyuki; Liang, Xing; Sasaki, Keiichi

Edentulous patients benefit significantly from implant-supported overdenture prostheses. The purpose of this systematic review was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of implant-supported overdentures (IODs) for edentulous patients. The search was limited to studies written in English and included an electronic and manual search through MEDLINE (Ovid, 1946 to November 2015), Embase (Ovid, 1966 to November 2015), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (to November 2015), and PubMed (to November 2015). Two investigators extracted the data and assessed the studies independently. No meta-analysis was conducted due to the high heterogeneity within the literature. Of the initial 583 selected articles, 10 studies involving 802 participants were included. Of these, 6 studies had a high risk of bias and the rest had an unclear risk of bias. Implant-supported prostheses were more cost-effective when compared to conventional dentures and fixed implant-supported prostheses. Overdentures supported by two implants and magnet attachment were reported as cost-effective. Implant-supported overdentures are a cost-effective treatment for edentulous patients. More clinical studies with appropriate scientific vigor are required to further assess the cost-effectiveness of implant-supported overdentures.

Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework.

PubMed

Pescaroli, Gianluca; Alexander, David

2018-06-15

In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in research literature on the challenges of interconnected, compound, interacting, and cascading risks. These concepts are becoming ever more central to the resilience debate. They aggregate elements of climate change adaptation, critical infrastructure protection, and societal resilience in the face of complex, high-impact events. However, despite the potential of these concepts to link together diverse disciplines, scholars and practitioners need to avoid treating them in a superficial or ambiguous manner. Overlapping uses and definitions could generate confusion and lead to the duplication of research effort. This article gives an overview of the state of the art regarding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks. It is intended to help build a coherent basis for the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The main objective is to propose a holistic framework that highlights the complementarities of the four kinds of complex risk in a manner that is designed to support the work of researchers and policymakers. This article suggests how compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks could be used, with little or no redundancy, as inputs to new analyses and decisional tools designed to support the implementation of the SFDRR. The findings can be used to improve policy recommendations and support tools for emergency and crisis management, such as scenario building and impact trees, thus contributing to the achievement of a system-wide approach to resilience. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cancer genetic risk assessment and referral patterns in primary care.

PubMed

Vig, Hetal S; Armstrong, Joanne; Egleston, Brian L; Mazar, Carla; Toscano, Michele; Bradbury, Angela R; Daly, Mary B; Meropol, Neal J

2009-12-01

This study was undertaken to describe cancer risk assessment practices among primary care providers (PCPs). An electronic survey was sent to PCPs affiliated with a single insurance carrier. Demographic and practice characteristics associated with cancer genetic risk assessment and testing activities were described. Latent class analysis supported by likelihood ratio tests was used to define PCP profiles with respect to the level of engagement in genetic risk assessment and referral activity based on demographic and practice characteristics. 860 physicians responded to the survey (39% family practice, 29% internal medicine, 22% obstetrics/gynecology (OB/GYN), 10% other). Most respondents (83%) reported that they routinely assess hereditary cancer risk; however, only 33% reported that they take a full, three-generation pedigree for risk assessment. OB/GYN specialty, female gender, and physician access to a genetic counselor were independent predictors of referral to cancer genetics specialists. Three profiles of PCPs, based upon referral practice and extent of involvement in genetics evaluation, were defined. Profiles of physician characteristics associated with varying levels of engagement with cancer genetic risk assessment and testing can be identified. These profiles may ultimately be useful in targeting decision support tools and services.

Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

2012-07-01

We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) Analysis of NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) Flight Termination System and Power Supply

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morehouse, Dennis V.

2006-01-01

In order to perform public risk analyses for vehicles containing Flight Termination Systems (FTS), it is necessary for the analyst to know the reliability of each of the components of the FTS. These systems are typically divided into two segments; a transmitter system and associated equipment, typically in a ground station or on a support aircraft, and a receiver system and associated equipment on the target vehicle. This analysis attempts to analyze the reliability of the NASA DFRC flight termination system ground transmitter segment for use in the larger risk analysis and to compare the results against two established Department of Defense availability standards for such equipment.

Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

2015-04-01

Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood forecasting systems. In a cooperation between HR Wallingford and Deltares, the extended workflows are being integrated into the Delft-FEWS software system. Delft-FEWS provides modules for managing the data handling and forecasting process. Results of a pilot study that demonstrates the new tools are presented. The value of the newly generated information for decision support during a flood event is discussed.

Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M; Cochi, Stephen L

2016-07-01

Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Knowledge and expectations of women undergoing cancer genetic risk assessment: a qualitative analysis of free-text questionnaire comments.

PubMed

Phelps, C; Wood, F; Bennett, P; Brain, K; Gray, J

2007-08-01

Individuals undergoing cancer genetic risk assessment have been found to have a poor understanding of the process, which may affect how well they cope with learning their risk. This paper reports free-text data from questionnaires completed by women undergoing a randomised controlled trial of a psychological intervention. Of the 268 women undergoing genetic assessment for familial breast/ovarian cancer risk who were invited to take part in the trial, 157 women returned research questionnaires. Of these, 97 women provided free-text comments upon referral to a cancer genetics clinic, 62 provided comments whilst waiting for risk information (average, moderate or high), and 36 women provided comments following notification of risk. This paper reports a thematic analysis of the free-text data. Themes reflected individuals' poor knowledge and uncertainty about genetic risk assessment. How well individuals responded to learning their risk depended upon whether expectations had been met. Regardless of risk, individuals undergoing cancer genetic risk assessment are likely to benefit from increased information about its process and timescales, and access to increased psychological support. Free-text comments can provide valuable data about individuals' expectations and knowledge of genetics services.

Bread and Shoulders: Reversing the Downward Spiral, a Qualitative Analyses of the Effects of a Housing First-Type Program in France.

PubMed

Rhenter, Pauline; Moreau, Delphine; Laval, Christian; Mantovani, Jean; Albisson, Amandine; Suderie, Guillaume; Boucekine, Mohamed; Tinland, Aurelie; Loubière, Sandrine; Greacen, Tim; Auquier, Pascal; Girard, Vincent

2018-03-14

This paper is a qualitative analysis of the effects of accompagnement , a support framework, on recovery trajectories of people with long-term homelessness and severe psychiatric disorders during 24 months in a Housing First-type program in France. A comprehensive methodology based on grounded theory was used to construct an interview guide, conduct multiple interviews with 35 Housing First participants sampled for heterogeneity, and produce memos on their trajectories before and after entering the program based on interview information. Thematic analysis of a representative subsample ( n = 13) of memos identified 12 objective factors and 6 subjective factors key to the recovery process. An in-depth re-analysis of the memos generated four recovery themes: (1) the need for secure space favorable to self-reflexivity; (2) a "honeymoon" effect; (3) the importance of even weak social ties; (4) support from and hope among peers. Three challenges to recovery were identified: (1) finding a balance between protection and risk; (2) breaking downward spirals; (3) bifurcating the trajectory. This study provides new insight into the recovery process, understood as a non-linear transformation of an experience-the relationship between objective life conditions and subjective perception of those conditions-which reinforces protective support over risk elements.

Bread and Shoulders: Reversing the Downward Spiral, a Qualitative Analyses of the Effects of a Housing First-Type Program in France

PubMed Central

Rhenter, Pauline; Moreau, Delphine; Laval, Christian; Mantovani, Jean; Albisson, Amandine; Suderie, Guillaume; Boucekine, Mohamed; Tinland, Aurelie; Loubière, Sandrine; Greacen, Tim; Auquier, Pascal; Girard, Vincent

2018-01-01

This paper is a qualitative analysis of the effects of accompagnement, a support framework, on recovery trajectories of people with long-term homelessness and severe psychiatric disorders during 24 months in a Housing First-type program in France. A comprehensive methodology based on grounded theory was used to construct an interview guide, conduct multiple interviews with 35 Housing First participants sampled for heterogeneity, and produce memos on their trajectories before and after entering the program based on interview information. Thematic analysis of a representative subsample (n = 13) of memos identified 12 objective factors and 6 subjective factors key to the recovery process. An in-depth re-analysis of the memos generated four recovery themes: (1) the need for secure space favorable to self-reflexivity; (2) a “honeymoon” effect; (3) the importance of even weak social ties; (4) support from and hope among peers. Three challenges to recovery were identified: (1) finding a balance between protection and risk; (2) breaking downward spirals; (3) bifurcating the trajectory. This study provides new insight into the recovery process, understood as a non-linear transformation of an experience—the relationship between objective life conditions and subjective perception of those conditions—which reinforces protective support over risk elements. PMID:29538346

Decision Support Methods and Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.; Alexandrov, Natalia M.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Cerro, Jeffrey A.; Gumbert, Clyde r.; Sorokach, Michael R.; Burg, Cecile M.

2006-01-01

This paper is one of a set of papers, developed simultaneously and presented within a single conference session, that are intended to highlight systems analysis and design capabilities within the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC). This paper focuses on the specific capabilities of uncertainty/risk analysis, quantification, propagation, decomposition, and management, robust/reliability design methods, and extensions of these capabilities into decision analysis methods within SACD. These disciplines are discussed together herein under the name of Decision Support Methods and Tools. Several examples are discussed which highlight the application of these methods within current or recent aerospace research at the NASA LaRC. Where applicable, commercially available, or government developed software tools are also discussed

48 CFR 252.239-7018 - Supply chain risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... subsystem(s) of equipment, that is used in the automatic acquisition, storage, analysis, evaluation..., ancillary equipment (including imaging peripherals, input, output, and storage devices necessary for... of a computer, software, firmware and similar procedures, services (including support services), and...

OCCURRENCE AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FOR THE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Describes the occurrence of Cryptosporidium and other pathogens in the raw and finished water of public water systems (PWS) based on modeling of source water survey data. Analysis of microbial occurrence data to support LT2ESWTR microbial risk assessment

Management of Patients With Pancreatic Cysts: Analysis of Possible False-Negative Cases of Malignancy.

PubMed

Kowalski, Thomas; Siddiqui, Ali; Loren, David; Mertz, Howard R; Mallat, Damien; Haddad, Nadim; Malhotra, Nidhi; Sadowski, Brett; Lybik, Mark J; Patel, Sandeep N; Okoh, Emuejevoke; Rosenkranz, Laura; Karasik, Michael; Golioto, Michael; Linder, Jeffrey; Catalano, Marc F; Al-Haddad, Mohammad A

2016-09-01

To examine the utility of integrated molecular pathology (IMP) in managing surveillance of pancreatic cysts based on outcomes and analysis of false negatives (FNs) from a previously published cohort (n=492). In endoscopic ultrasound with fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) of cyst fluid lacking malignant cytology, IMP demonstrated better risk stratification for malignancy at approximately 3 years' follow-up than International Consensus Guideline (Fukuoka) 2012 management recommendations in such cases. Patient outcomes and clinical features of Fukuoka and IMP FN cases were reviewed. Practical guidance for appropriate surveillance intervals and surgery decisions using IMP were derived from follow-up data, considering EUS-FNA sampling limitations and high-risk clinical circumstances observed. Surveillance intervals for patients based on IMP predictive value were compared with those of Fukuoka. Outcomes at follow-up for IMP low-risk diagnoses supported surveillance every 2 to 3 years, independent of cyst size, when EUS-FNA sampling limitations or high-risk clinical circumstances were absent. In 10 of 11 patients with FN IMP diagnoses (2% of cohort), EUS-FNA sampling limitations existed; Fukuoka identified high risk in 9 of 11 cases. In 4 of 6 FN cases by Fukuoka (1% of cohort), IMP identified high risk. Overall, 55% of cases had possible sampling limitations and 37% had high-risk clinical circumstances. Outcomes support more cautious management in such cases when using IMP. Adjunct use of IMP can provide evidence for relaxed surveillance of patients with benign cysts that meet Fukuoka criteria for closer observation or surgery. Although infrequent, FN results with IMP can be associated with EUS-FNA sampling limitations or high-risk clinical circumstances.

Managing risk during care transitions when approaching end of life: A qualitative study of patients' and health care professionals' decision making.

PubMed

Coombs, Maureen A; Parker, Roses; de Vries, Kay

2017-07-01

Increasing importance is being placed on the coordination of services at the end of life. To describe decision-making processes that influence transitions in care when approaching the end of life. Qualitative study using field observations and longitudinal semi-structured interviews. Field observations were undertaken in three sites: a residential care home, a medical assessment unit and a general medical unit in New Zealand. The Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool was used to identify participants with advanced and progressive illness. Patients and family members were interviewed on recruitment and 3-4 months later. Four weeks of fieldwork were conducted in each site. A total of 40 interviews were conducted: 29 initial interviews and 11 follow-up interviews. Thematic analysis was undertaken. Managing risk was an important factor that influenced transitions in care. Patients and health care staff held different perspectives on how such risks were managed. At home, patients tolerated increasing risk and used specific support measures to manage often escalating health and social problems. In contrast, decisions about discharge in hospital were driven by hospital staff who were risk-adverse. Availability of community and carer services supported risk management while a perceived need for early discharge decision making in hospital and making 'safe' discharge options informed hospital discharge decisions. While managing risk is an important factor during care transitions, patients should be able to make choices on how to live with risk at the end of life. This requires reconsideration of transitional care and current discharge planning processes at the end of life.

Meta-analysis comparing same-day versus delayed vitrectomy clinical outcomes for intravitreal retained lens fragments after age-related cataract surgery

PubMed Central

Vanner, Elizabeth A; Stewart, Michael W

2014-01-01

Purpose/design We aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the risk difference of clinical outcomes for same-day (SD) vs delayed (DEL) pars plana vitrectomy (PPV). Methods We searched MEDLINE (English; January 1, 1985 to July 16, 2013) and article reference lists, for patients with crystalline retained lens fragments and discussion of SD-PPV vs DEL-PPV. For the meta-analysis, articles needed the number of patients receiving SD-PPV and DEL-PPV, and the number, in each group, who experienced one or more of the outcomes: not good visual acuity (VA) (<20/40), bad VA (≤20/200), retinal detachment, increased intraocular pressure/glaucoma, intraocular infection/inflammation, cystoid macular edema, and corneal edema. Results Of 304 articles identified, 23 provided data for the meta-analysis. Results were mixed, indicating 1) neither vitrectomy time produced better outcomes in all studies (not good VA risk difference =10.3% [positive numbers favored SD-PPV; negative numbers favored DEL-PPV], 95% confidence interval [CI] = [−0.4% to 21.0%], P=0.059; and bad VA risk difference =−0.3%, 95% CI = [−10.7% to 10.1%], P=0.953); 2) better outcomes with immediate SD-PPV compared with all DEL-PPV (not good VA risk difference =16.2%, 95% CI = [0.8% to 31.5%], P=0.039; and bad VA risk difference =8.5%; 95% CI = [0.8% to 16.2%], P=0.030); and 3) immediate SD-PPV and prompt DEL-PPV (3 to 14 days after cataract surgery) had no significant differences and so may produce similar outcomes (not good VA risk differences range = [−19.9% to 6.5%], 95% CI = [−59.9% to 36.4%]; and bad VA risk differences range = [−6.9% to 7.4%], 95% CI = [−33.1% to 31.8%]). Conclusion Perhaps SD-PPV should be limited to facilities at which a vitreoretinal surgeon is immediately available. Otherwise, these results support referring a patient with retained lens fragments promptly to a vitreoretinal surgeon but do not support interfacility transport for SD-PPV. PMID:25429196

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. This paper presents the main components of the SDSS and the overall design and plans for the user interface.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stayner, L.T.; Meinhardt, T.; Hardin, B.

Under the Occupational Safety and Health, and Mine Safety and Health Acts, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is charged with development of recommended occupational safety and health standards, and with conducting research to support the development of these standards. Thus, NIOSH has been actively involved in the analysis of risk associated with occupational exposures, and in the development of research information that is critical for the risk assessment process. NIOSH research programs and other information resources relevant to the risk assessment process are described in this paper. Future needs for information resources are also discussed.

Nutrition support can bring survival benefit to high nutrition risk gastric cancer patients who received chemotherapy.

PubMed

Qiu, Miaozhen; Zhou, Yi-xin; Jin, Yin; Wang, Zi-xian; Wei, Xiao-li; Han, Hong-yu; Ye, Wen-feng; Zhou, Zhi-wei; Zhang, Dong-sheng; Wang, Feng-hua; Li, Yu-hong; Yang, Da-jun; Xu, Rui-hua

2015-07-01

The aim of our study is firstly to evaluate the prevalence and prognostic value of nutrition risk in gastric cancer patients and secondly to explore whether the nutrition support can prolong the survival of advanced gastric cancer patients. It contained two study periods. In the first period, we prospectively evaluated the nutritional risk of gastric adenocarcinoma patients from 2009 to 2011 using the method of European Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to evaluate the prognostic value of high nutrition risk. The second period was between 2012 and 2013. We prospectively gave the nutrition support to stage IV gastric cancer patients whose NRS is ≥3. There were 830 patients in the first period, 50.7% patients with a NRS ≥ 3. Patients with NRS ≥ 3 presented a significantly higher percentage of stage IV diseases, elevated values of C-reactive protein, and hypoproteinemia. The median survival was significantly higher in NRS < 3 patients (31.9 vs. 25.7 months, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed that NRS status was an independent prognostic factor. There were 347 patients in the second period. Young, male, and good response to chemotherapy were more likely to have the NRS shift to <3 after nutrition support. The median survival was 14.3 and 9.6 months for patients with and without NRS shift, respectively, P = 0.001. NRS ≥ 3 was an independent adverse prognostic factor in gastric cancer patients. For stage IV patients whose NRS ≥ 3, the nutrition support might be helpful to improve the prognosis.

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such, an ETA is considered to be a valuable quantitative decision support tool.

Financial and risk considerations for successful disease management programs.

PubMed

Baldwin, A L

1999-11-01

Results for disease management [DM] programs have not been as positive as hoped because of clinical issues, lack of access to capital, and administrative issues. The financial experience of DM programs can be quite volatile. Financial projections that are protocol-based, rather than experience-based, may understate the revenue required and the range of possible costs for a DM program by understating the impact of complicating conditions and comorbidities. Actuarial tools (risk analysis and risk projection models) support better understanding of DM contracts. In particular, these models can provide the ability to quantify the impact of the factors that drive costs of a contract and the volatility of those costs. This analysis can assist DM companies in setting appropriate revenue and capital targets. Similar analysis by health plans can identify diseases that are good candidates for DM programs and can provide the basis for performance targets.

Evidence of the dissociative PTSD subtype: A systematic literature review of latent class and profile analytic studies of PTSD.

PubMed

Hansen, Maj; Ross, Jana; Armour, Cherie

2017-04-15

The dissociative PTSD (D-PTSD) subtype was first introduced into the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) in 2013. Prior to this, studies using latent profile analysis (LPA) or latent class analysis (LCA), began to provide support for the D-PTSD construct and associated risk factors. This research is important, because dissociative symptoms in the context of PTSD may potentially interfere with treatment course or outcome. The aims of the present study were twofold: to systematically review the LCA and LPA studies investigating support for the D-PTSD construct; and to review the associated research on the risk factors or covariates of D-PTSD in the identified studies. Six databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, PILOTS, PsychInfo, and Embase) were systematically searched for relevant papers. Eleven studies were included in the present review. The majority of the studies were supportive of the D-PTSD subtype; primarily characterized by depersonalization and derealization. Several covariates of the D-PTSD subtype have been investigated with mixed results. Many limitations relate to the state of the current literature, including a small number of studies, the use of self-report measurements of PTSD, and heterogeneity across the samples in investigated covariates. The results were overall supportive of the D-PTSD construct. Future research on D-PTSD and associated risk factors is needed to shed light on the possibilities of facilitating preventive actions, screening, and implications on treatment effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Information and decision support needs of parents considering amniocentesis: interviews with pregnant women and health professionals.

PubMed

Durand, Marie-Anne; Stiel, Mareike; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

2010-06-01

Our aim was to clarify and categorize information and decision support needs of pregnant women deciding about amniocentesis. Prenatal screening for Down's syndrome (implemented in routine practice) generates a quantifiable risk of chromosome abnormality. To increase certainty, chromosomal material needs to be obtained through amniocentesis or other diagnostic test. Amniocentesis carries risks of pregnancy loss. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with health professionals and pregnant women who had considered amniocentesis. The data were qualitatively analysed using a two-step thematic content analysis. A sample of 17 health professionals and 17 pregnant women were interviewed. Professionals demonstrated little consensus regarding the miscarriage rate, the potential consequences of amniocentesis testing and the uncertainty associated with the tests. Furthermore, methods employed to communicate risks varied between professionals. Pregnant women reported heightened stress and anxiety. Twelve out of 17 women described the decision as complex and difficult to make while five participants were satisfied with the information and support provided. Women would have liked more information about the risks involved, the results, the consequences of an amniocentesis and associated emotional difficulties. Women highlighted the need for personalized information, presented in multiple ways, while remaining simple and unbiased. There is variation in the provision of information related to amniocentesis testing. The majority of pregnant women reported difficulties making a decision and identified dimensions of information and decision support where improvements were needed.

A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

PubMed

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-07-18

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.

The association between physical activity and renal cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Behrens, G; Leitzmann, M F

2013-01-01

Background: Physical activity may decrease renal cancer risk by reducing obesity, blood pressure, insulin resistance, and lipid peroxidation. Despite plausible biologic mechanisms linking increased physical activity to decreased risk for renal cancer, few epidemiologic studies have been able to report a clear inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer, and no meta-analysis is available on the topic. Methods: We searched the literature using PubMed and Web of Knowledge to identify published non-ecologic epidemiologic studies quantifying the relationship between physical activity and renal cancer risk in individuals without a cancer history. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, including information from 19 studies based on a total of 2 327 322 subjects and 10 756 cases. The methodologic quality of the studies was examined using a comprehensive scoring system. Results: Comparing high vs low levels of physical activity, we observed an inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (summary relative risk (RR) from random-effects meta-analysis=0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.79–0.97). Summarising risk estimates from high-quality studies strengthened the inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (RR=0.78; 95% CI=0.66–0.92). Effect modification by adiposity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, smoking, gender, or geographic region was not observed. Conclusion: Our comprehensive meta-analysis provides strong support for an inverse relation of physical activity to renal cancer risk. Future high-quality studies are required to discern which specific types, intensities, frequencies, and durations of physical activity are needed for renal cancer risk reduction. PMID:23412105

Quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE to investigate the effects of cigarette smoke and aerosol of a prototypic modified risk tobacco product on the lung proteome in C57BL/6 mice.

PubMed

Elamin, Ashraf; Titz, Bjoern; Dijon, Sophie; Merg, Celine; Geertz, Marcel; Schneider, Thomas; Martin, Florian; Schlage, Walter K; Frentzel, Stefan; Talamo, Fabio; Phillips, Blaine; Veljkovic, Emilija; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Vanscheeuwijck, Patrick; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

2016-08-11

Smoking is associated with several serious diseases, such as lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Within our systems toxicology framework, we are assessing whether potential modified risk tobacco products (MRTP) can reduce smoking-related health risks compared to conventional cigarettes. In this article, we evaluated to what extent 2D-PAGE/MALDI MS/MS (2D-PAGE) can complement the iTRAQ LC-MS/MS results from a previously reported mouse inhalation study, in which we assessed a prototypic MRTP (pMRTP). Selected differentially expressed proteins identified by both LC-MS/MS and 2D-PAGE approaches were further verified using reverse-phase protein microarrays. LC-MS/MS captured the effects of cigarette smoke (CS) on the lung proteome more comprehensively than 2D-PAGE. However, an integrated analysis of both proteomics data sets showed that 2D-PAGE data complement the LC-MS/MS results by supporting the overall trend of lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than CS on the lung proteome. Biological effects of CS exposure supported by both methods included increases in immune-related, surfactant metabolism, proteasome, and actin cytoskeleton protein clusters. Overall, while 2D-PAGE has its value, especially as a complementary method for the analysis of effects on intact proteins, LC-MS/MS approaches will likely be the method of choice for proteome analysis in systems toxicology investigations. Quantitative proteomics is anticipated to play a growing role within systems toxicology assessment frameworks in the future. To further understand how different proteomics technologies can contribute to toxicity assessment, we conducted a quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE and isobaric tag-based LC-MS/MS approaches and compared the results produced from the 2 approaches. Using a prototypic modified risk tobacco product (pMRTP) as our test item, we show compared with cigarette smoke, how 2D-PAGE results can complement and support LC-MS/MS data, demonstrating the much lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than cigarette smoke on the mouse lung proteome. The combined analysis of 2D-PAGE and LC-MS/MS data identified an effect of cigarette smoke on the proteasome and actin cytoskeleton in the lung. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dose-Response Relationship between Dietary Magnesium Intake and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Fang, Xin; Han, Hedong; Li, Mei; Liang, Chun; Fan, Zhongjie; Aaseth, Jan; He, Jia; Montgomery, Scott; Cao, Yang

2016-11-19

The epidemiological evidence for a dose-response relationship between magnesium intake and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is sparse. The aim of the study was to summarize the evidence for the association of dietary magnesium intake with risk of T2D and evaluate the dose-response relationship. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies that reported dietary magnesium intake and risk of incident T2D. We identified relevant studies by searching major scientific literature databases and grey literature resources from their inception to February 2016. We included cohort studies that provided risk ratios, i.e., relative risks (RRs), odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs), for T2D. Linear dose-response relationships were assessed using random-effects meta-regression. Potential nonlinear associations were evaluated using restricted cubic splines. A total of 25 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies comprised 637,922 individuals including 26,828 with a T2D diagnosis. Compared with the lowest magnesium consumption group in the population, the risk of T2D was reduced by 17% across all the studies; 19% in women and 16% in men. A statistically significant linear dose-response relationship was found between incremental magnesium intake and T2D risk. After adjusting for age and body mass index, the risk of T2D incidence was reduced by 8%-13% for per 100 mg/day increment in dietary magnesium intake. There was no evidence to support a nonlinear dose-response relationship between dietary magnesium intake and T2D risk. The combined data supports a role for magnesium in reducing risk of T2D, with a statistically significant linear dose-response pattern within the reference dose range of dietary intake among Asian and US populations. The evidence from Europe and black people is limited and more prospective studies are needed for the two subgroups.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

PubMed

Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

2016-10-01

Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Redefining risk research priorities for nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieger, Khara D.; Baun, Anders; Owen, Richard

2010-02-01

Chemical-based risk assessment underpins the current approach to responsible development of nanomaterials (NM). It is now recognised, however, that this process may take decades, leaving decision makers with little support in the near term. Despite this, current and near future research efforts are largely directed at establishing (eco)toxicological and exposure data for NM, and comparatively little research has been undertaken on tools or approaches that may facilitate near-term decisions, some of which we briefly outline in this analysis. We propose a reprioritisation of NM risk research efforts to redress this imbalance, including the development of more adaptive risk governance frameworks, alternative/complementary tools to risk assessment, and health and environment surveillance.

Analysis of Risk Compensation Behavior on Night Vision Enhancement System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiraoka, Toshihiro; Masui, Junya; Nishikawa, Seimei

Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) such as a forward obstacle collision warning system (FOCWS) and a night vision enhancement system (NVES) aim to decrease driver's mental workload and enhance vehicle safety by provision of useful information to support driver's perception process and judgment process. On the other hand, the risk homeostasis theory (RHT) cautions that an enhanced safety and a reduced risk would cause a risk compensation behavior such as increasing the vehicle velocity. Therefore, the present paper performed the driving simulator experiments to discuss dependence on the NVES and emergence of the risk compensation behavior. Moreover, we verified the side-effects of spontaneous behavioral adaptation derived from the presentation of the fuel-consumption meter on the risk compensation behavior.

Engineering Management Capstone Project EM 697: Compare and Contrast Risk Management Implementation at NASA and the US Army

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brothers, Mary Ann; Safie, Fayssal M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

NASA at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the U.S. Army at Redstone Arsenal were analyzed to determine whether they were successful in implementing their risk management program. Risk management implementation surveys were distributed to aid in this analysis. The scope is limited to NASA S&MA (Safety and Mission Assurance) at MSFC, including applicable support contractors, and the US Army Engineering Directorate, including applicable contractors, located at Redstone Arsenal. NASA has moderately higher risk management implementation survey scores than the Army. Accordingly, the implementation of the risk management program at NASA is considered good while only two of five of the survey categories indicated that the risk management implementation is good at the Army.

Prenatal selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor use and the risk of autism spectrum disorder in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kaplan, Yusuf C; Keskin-Arslan, Elif; Acar, Selin; Sozmen, Kaan

2016-12-01

To determine whether an up-to-date systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies would support the previously suggested associations regarding prenatal selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) use and the risk for autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in children. PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Reprotox databases were searched; observational studies with an exposed and unexposed group were included. The meta-analysis of case-control studies demonstrated a significantly increased risk of ASD in the children whose mothers were prenatally exposed to SSRIs during different exposure time windows (except third trimester). The qualitative review of the cohort studies suggested inconsistent findings. The significant association between preconception-only SSRI exposure and ASD in the children and negative/inconsistent findings among cohort studies weaken the significant associations detected in this meta-analysis. We suggest that confounding by indication still cannot be ruled out regarding prenatal SSRI exposure and ASD in children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A group-level approach to analyzing participative ergonomics (PE) effectiveness: The relationship between PE dimensions and employee exposure to injuries.

PubMed

Morag, Ido; Luria, Gil

2018-04-01

Most studies concerned with participative ergonomic (PE) interventions, focus on organizational rather than group level analysis. By implementing an intervention at a manufacturing plant, the current study, utilizing advanced information systems, measured the effect of line-supervisor leadership on employee exposure to risks. The study evaluated which PE dimensions (i.e., extent of workforce involvement, diversity of reporter role types and scope of analysis) are related to such exposure at the group level. The data for the study was extracted from two separate computerized systems (workforce medical records of 791 employees and an intranet reporting system) during a two-year period. While the results did not confirm the effect of line-supervisor leadership on subordinates' exposure to risks, they did demonstrate relationships between PE dimensions and the employees' exposure to risks. The results support the suggested level of analysis and demonstrate that group-based analysis facilitates the assimilation of preventive interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Quality criteria in medicine: which limits?].

PubMed

Minvielle, E

2006-06-01

This article aims to develop a critical appraisal of the criteria's development in medicine. The COMPAQH (Coordination for Measuring Performance and Assuring Quality in Hospitals) project (Ministry of Health/ High Authority of Health/ National Institute of Medical Research) helps to support this analysis. This project based on the test of 42 Quality indicators (QI) gives findings not only about the manner to build criteria, but also to interpret and diffuse results among physicians and hospital managers. Criteria must be elaborated in a pragmatic way. They must be in compliance with practice guidelines supported by scientific evidences. The associated risk is to create and develop a normative medicine. Collaboration with professional societies may be useful in preventing this risk.

What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

PubMed Central

Rajan, S. Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K.

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large. PMID:23193357

What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

PubMed

Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

Gateway Effects: Why the Cited Evidence Does Not Support Their Existence for Low-Risk Tobacco Products (and What Evidence Would).

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V

2015-05-21

It is often claimed that low-risk drugs still create harm because of "gateway effects", in which they cause the use of a high-risk alternative. Such claims are popular among opponents of tobacco harm reduction, claiming that low-risk tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco) cause people to start smoking, sometimes backed by empirical studies that ostensibly support the claim. However, these studies consistently ignore the obvious alternative causal pathways, particularly that observed associations might represent causation in the opposite direction (smoking causes people to seek low-risk alternatives) or confounding (the same individual characteristics increase the chance of using any tobacco product). Due to these complications, any useful analysis must deal with simultaneity and confounding by common cause. In practice, existing analyses seem almost as if they were designed to provide teaching examples about drawing simplistic and unsupported causal conclusions from observed associations. The present analysis examines what evidence and research strategies would be needed to empirically detect such a gateway effect, if there were one, explaining key methodological concepts including causation and confounding, examining the logic of the claim, identifying potentially useful data, and debunking common fallacies on both sides of the argument, as well as presenting an extended example of proper empirical testing. The analysis demonstrates that none of the empirical studies to date that are purported to show a gateway effect from tobacco harm reduction products actually does so. The observations and approaches can be generalized to other cases where observed association of individual characteristics in cross-sectional data could result from any of several causal relationships.

Gateway Effects: Why the Cited Evidence Does Not Support Their Existence for Low-Risk Tobacco Products (and What Evidence Would)

PubMed Central

Phillips, Carl V.

2015-01-01

It is often claimed that low-risk drugs still create harm because of “gateway effects”, in which they cause the use of a high-risk alternative. Such claims are popular among opponents of tobacco harm reduction, claiming that low-risk tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco) cause people to start smoking, sometimes backed by empirical studies that ostensibly support the claim. However, these studies consistently ignore the obvious alternative causal pathways, particularly that observed associations might represent causation in the opposite direction (smoking causes people to seek low-risk alternatives) or confounding (the same individual characteristics increase the chance of using any tobacco product). Due to these complications, any useful analysis must deal with simultaneity and confounding by common cause. In practice, existing analyses seem almost as if they were designed to provide teaching examples about drawing simplistic and unsupported causal conclusions from observed associations. The present analysis examines what evidence and research strategies would be needed to empirically detect such a gateway effect, if there were one, explaining key methodological concepts including causation and confounding, examining the logic of the claim, identifying potentially useful data, and debunking common fallacies on both sides of the argument, as well as presenting an extended example of proper empirical testing. The analysis demonstrates that none of the empirical studies to date that are purported to show a gateway effect from tobacco harm reduction products actually does so. The observations and approaches can be generalized to other cases where observed association of individual characteristics in cross-sectional data could result from any of several causal relationships. PMID:26006122

The use of granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) and management of chemotherapy delivery during adjuvant treatment for early-stage breast cancer--further observations from the IMPACT solid study.

PubMed

Mäenpää, Johanna; Varthalitis, Ioannis; Erdkamp, Frans; Trojan, Andreas; Krzemieniecki, Krzysztof; Lindman, Henrik; Bendall, Kate; Vogl, Florian D; Verma, Shailendra

2016-02-01

To investigate the use and impact of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSF) on chemotherapy delivery and neutropenia management in breast cancer in a clinical practice setting. IMPACT Solid was an international, prospective observational study in patients with a physician-assessed febrile neutropenia (FN) risk of ≥20%. This analysis focused on stages I-III breast cancer patients who received a standard chemotherapy regimen for which the FN risk was published. Chemotherapy delivery and neutropenia-related outcomes were reported according to the FN risk of the regimen and intent of G-CSF use. 690 patients received a standard chemotherapy regimen; 483 received the textbook dose/schedule with a majority of these regimens (84%) having a FN risk ≥10%. Patients receiving a regimen with a FN risk ≥10% were younger with better performance status than those receiving a regimen with a FN risk <10%. Patients who received higher-risk regimens were more likely to receive G-CSF primary prophylaxis (48% vs 22%), complete their planned chemotherapy (97% vs 88%) and achieve relative dose intensity ≥85% (93% vs 86%) than those receiving lower-risk regimens. Most first FN events (56%) occurred in cycles not supported with G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Physicians generally recommend standard adjuvant chemotherapy regimens and were more likely to follow G-CSF guidelines for younger, good performance status patients in the curative setting, and often modify standard regimens in more compromised patients. However, G-CSF support is not optimal, indicated by G-CSF primary prophylaxis use in <50% of high-risk patients and observation of FN without G-CSF support. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Executive summary : preliminary analysis of cost, value, and risk.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-02-12

Access to emergency services provided by 9-1-1 in todays world is evolving. The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) understands that 9-1-1 will ultimately become part of a broader array of interconnected networks supporting emergency service...

17 CFR 229.303 - (Item 303) Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... may be combined whenever the two topics are interrelated. Where in the registrant's judgment a... or credit risk support to, or engages in leasing, hedging or research and development services with...

JAVA CLASSES FOR NONPROCEDURAL VARIOGRAM MONITORING

EPA Science Inventory

A set of Java classes was written for variogram modeling to support research for US EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA). The modeling objectives of this research program are to use conceptual programming tools for numerical analysis for regional risk assessm...

Inheritance Analysis of Congenital Left Ventricular Outflow Tract Obstruction Malformations: Segregation, Multiplex Relative Risk, and Heritability

PubMed Central

McBride, Kim L.; Pignatelli, Ricardo; Lewin, Mark; Ho, Trang; Fernbach, Susan; Menesses, Andres; Lam, Wilbur; Leal, Suzanne M.; Kaplan, Norman; Schliekelman, Paul; Towbin, Jeffrey A.; Belmont, John W.

2006-01-01

The left ventricular outflow tract (LVOTO) malformations, aortic valve stenosis (AVS), coarctation of the aorta (COA), and hypoplastic left heart (HLH) constitute a mechanistically defined subgroup of congenital heart defects that have substantial evidence for a genetic component. Evidence from echocardiography studies has shown that bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) is found frequently in relatives of children with LVOTO defects. However, formal inheritance analysis has not been performed. We ascertained 124 families by an index case with AVS, COA, or HLH. A total of 413 relatives were enrolled in the study, of which 351 had detailed echocardiography exams for structural heart defects and measurements of a variety of aortic arch, left ventricle, and valve structures. LVOTO malformations were noted in 30 relatives (18 BAV, 5 HLH, 3 COA, and 3 AVS), along with significant congenital heart defects (CHD) in 2 others (32/413; 7.7%). Relative risk for first-degree relatives in this group was 36.9, with a heritability of 0.71–0.90. Formal segregation analysis suggests that one or more minor loci with rare dominant alleles may be operative in a subset of families. Multiplex relative risk analysis, which estimates number of loci, had the highest maximum likelihood score in a model with 2 loci (range of 1–6 in the lod-1 support interval). Heritability of several aortic arch measurements and aortic valve was significant. These data support a complex but most likely oligogenic pattern of inheritance. A combination of linkage and association study designs is likely to enable LVOTO risk gene identification. This data can also provide families with important information for screening asymptomatic relatives for potentially harmful cardiac defects. PMID:15690347

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

PubMed

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

The effectiveness of self-management support interventions for men with long-term conditions: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Galdas, Paul; Fell, Jennifer; Bower, Peter; Kidd, Lisa; Blickem, Christian; McPherson, Kerri; Hunt, Kate; Gilbody, Simon; Richardson, Gerry

2015-03-20

To assess the effectiveness of self-management support interventions in men with long-term conditions. A quantitative systematic review with meta-analysis. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was searched to identify published reviews of self-management support interventions. Relevant reviews were screened to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of self-management support interventions conducted in men alone, or which analysed the effects of interventions by sex. Data on relevant outcomes, patient populations, intervention type and study quality were extracted. Quality appraisal was conducted using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Meta-analysis was conducted to compare the effects of interventions in men, women, and mixed-sex sub-groups. 40 RCTs of self-management support interventions in men, and 20 eligible RCTs where an analysis by sex was reported, were included in the review. Meta-analysis suggested that physical activity, education, and peer support-based interventions have a positive impact on quality of life in men. However, there is currently insufficient evidence to make strong statements about whether self-management support interventions show larger, similar or smaller effects in men compared with women and mixed-sex groups. Clinicians may wish to consider whether certain types of self-management support (eg, physical activity, education, peer support) are particularly effective in men, although more research is needed to fully determine and explore this. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Support Needs and Experiences of People Bereaved by Suicide: Qualitative Findings from a Cross-Sectional British Study of Bereaved Young Adults

PubMed Central

De Souza, Tanisha; Stevenson, Fiona; King, Michael; Osborn, David; Morant, Nicola

2018-01-01

People bereaved by suicide are at increased risk of suicide, but evidence is lacking that available interventions reduce suicide risk. Few large-scale studies have described the views of suicide-bereaved people regarding their needs for support. Our objective was to explore the nature of young adults’ experiences of support after bereavement by suicide and their views on valued and unhelpful aspects. We conducted a cross-sectional study of staff and students aged 18–40 at 37 United Kingdom (UK) higher educational institutions in 2010, eliciting qualitative responses to two questions probing experiences of support and unmet needs after the suicide of a close contact. We conducted thematic analysis of responses from 420 adults bereaved by suicide, of whom 75% had received support after the loss. We identified three broad descriptive areas corresponding to important aspects of support: value and experiences of the support received; views on specific support needs; and reasons for not seeking support. We found that needs for emotional support exist throughout the social networks of people who die by suicide but are often hidden. Our findings suggest a need for proactive offers of support from family, friends, and professionals after suicide, repeated regularly in case a bereaved person does not feel ready for support early on. PMID:29614053

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Making sense of endovascular therapies for femoropopliteal disease.

PubMed

Altin, S Elissa; Abbott, J Dawn

2018-06-01

The femoropoliteal segment is a common target for endovascular intervention and the unique biomechanical forces on the arteries increase the risk of restenosis This large meta-analysis supports drug coated balloons as the initial endovascular strategy due to lower risk of target lesion revascularization compared to other modalities Whether there are subgroups of patients or lesion types that benefit from an alternative revascularization approach is unclear and warrants investigation. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate Risk Assessment: Technical Guidance Manual for DoD Installations and Built Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-06

climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment. The approach, which we call “decision-scaling,” reveals the core sensitivity of...DoD installations to climate change . It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems...including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and

A Baseline Historical Analysis of Neck and Back-Related Morbidity in the U.S. Army: Occupational Risks Potentially Related to Head-Supported Mass

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

disorder with myelopathy, unspecified region 722.73 Intervertebral disc disorder w/ myelopathy, lumbar region 721.3 Lumbosacral spondylosis without...Disc disorder, lumbar region 721.42 Spondylosis with myelopathy, lumbar region 724.6 Disorders of sacrum 738.4 Acquired spondylolisthesis...particular, increases risk for spondylosis and accentuates age-related decreases in spinal lordosis(20). In addition to the ballistic protection

Dose-effect relationships, epidemiological analysis and the derivation of low dose risk.

PubMed

Leenhouts, H P; Chadwick, K H

2011-03-01

This paper expands on our recent comments in a letter to this journal about the analysis of epidemiological studies and the determination of low dose RBE of low LET radiation (Chadwick and Leenhouts 2009 J. Radiol. Prot. 29 445-7). Using the assumption that radiation induced cancer arises from a somatic mutation (Chadwick and Leenhouts 2011 J. Radiol. Prot. 31 41-8) a model equation is derived to describe cancer induction as a function of dose. The model is described briefly, evidence is provided in support of it, and it is applied to a set of experimental animal data. The results are compared with a linear fit to the data as has often been done in epidemiological studies. The article presents arguments to support several related messages which are relevant to epidemiological analysis, the derivation of low dose risk and the weighting factor of sparsely ionising radiations. The messages are: (a) cancer incidence following acute exposure should, in principle, be fitted to a linear-quadratic curve with cell killing using all the data available; (b) the acute data are dominated by the quadratic component of dose; (c) the linear fit of any acute data will essentially be dependent on the quadratic component and will be unrelated to the effectiveness of the radiation at low doses; consequently, (d) the method used by ICRP to derive low dose risk from the atomic bomb survivor data means that it is unrelated to the effectiveness of the hard gamma radiation at low radiation doses; (e) the low dose risk value should, therefore, not be used as if it were representative for hard gamma rays to argue for an increased weighting factor for tritium and soft x-rays even though there are mechanistic reasons to expect this; (f) epidemiological studies of chronically exposed populations supported by appropriate cellular radiobiological studies have the best chance of revealing different RBE values for different sparsely ionising radiations.

The Emergence of Flood Insurance in Canada: Navigating Institutional Uncertainty.

PubMed

Thistlethwaite, Jason

2017-04-01

Flood insurance has remained unavailable in Canada based on an assessment that it lacks economic viability. In response to Canada's costliest flood event to date in 2013, the Canadian insurance industry has started to develop a framework to expand existing property insurance to cover flood damage. Research on flood insurance has overlooked why and how insurance systems transition to expand insurance coverage without evidence of economic viability. This article will address this gap through a case study on the emergence of flood insurance in Canada, and the approach to its expansion. Between 2013 and 2016, insurance industry officials representing over 60% of premiums collected in Canada were interviewed. These interviews revealed that flood insurance is being expanded in response to institutional pressure, specifically external stakeholder expectations that the insurance industry will adopt a stronger role in managing flood risk through coverage of flood damage. Further evidence of this finding is explored by assessing the emergence of a unique flood insurance model that involves a risk-adjusted and optional product along with an expansion of government policy supporting flood risk mitigation. This approach attempts to balance industry concerns about economic viability with institutional pressure to reduce flood risk through insurance. This analysis builds on existing research by providing the first scholarly analysis of flood insurance in Canada, important "empirical" teeth to existing conceptual analysis on the availability of flood insurance, and the influence of institutional factors on risk analysis within the insurance sector. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Volunteering by older adults and risk of mortality: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Okun, Morris A; Yeung, Ellen WanHeung; Brown, Stephanie

2013-06-01

Organizational volunteering has been touted as an effective strategy for older adults to help themselves while helping others. Extending previous reviews, we carried out a meta-analysis of the relation between organizational volunteering by late-middle-aged and older adults (minimum age = 55 years old) and risk of mortality. We focused on unadjusted effect sizes (i.e., bivariate relations), adjusted effect sizes (i.e., controlling for other variables such as health), and interaction effect sizes (e.g., the joint effect of volunteering and religiosity). For unadjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 47%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 38% to 55%. For adjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 24%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 16% to 31%. For interaction effect sizes, we found preliminary support that as public religiosity increases, the inverse relation between volunteering and mortality risk becomes stronger. The discussion identifies several unresolved issues and directions for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazardsmore » from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.« less

Ecodevelopmental trajectories of family functioning: Links with HIV/STI risk behaviors and STI among Black adolescents.

PubMed

Córdova, David; Heinze, Justin E; Mistry, Ritesh; Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Zimmerman, Marc A

2016-07-01

We examined the effects of family functioning trajectories on sexual risk behaviors and STI in adolescents. A sample of 850 predominantly (80%) Black adolescents from Michigan, United States, was assessed at baseline, 12, 24, and 36 months postbaseline. Adolescents were from working-class families with a mean age of 14.9 years (SD = .64, Range = 13.9 to 16.9) at baseline. Participants completed measures of family functioning at each time point. At 36 months postbaseline, levels of sexual risk behaviors, including sex initiation, unprotected sex, and alcohol or drug use before last sexual intercourse, and STIs were assessed. Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) yielded 4-class solutions for family conflict and parent support. Adolescents with high or increasing family conflict trajectories, and low or decreasing family support trajectories, were at relatively greater risk of sexual risk behaviors and STIs. Yet, the additional trajectories differ across outcomes highlighting the complexities of the role of family functioning on sexual risk behaviors and STIs over time. Multiple Group LCGA indicate some findings vary as a function of gender. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Morality and nuclear energy: perceptions of risks and benefits, personal norms, and willingness to take action related to nuclear energy.

PubMed

De Groot, Judith I M; Steg, Linda

2010-09-01

We examined factors underlying people's willingness to take action in favor of or against nuclear energy from a moral perspective. We conducted a questionnaire study among a sample of the Dutch population (N = 123). As expected, perceptions of risks and benefits were related to personal norms (PN), that is, feelings of moral obligation toward taking action in favor of or against nuclear energy. In turn, PN predicted willingness to take action. Furthermore, PN mediated the relationships between perceptions of risk and benefits and willingness to take action. In line with our hypothesis, beliefs about the risks and benefits of nuclear energy were less powerful in explaining PN for supporters compared to PN of opponents. Also, beliefs on risks and benefits and PN explained significantly more variance in willingness to take action of opponents than of supporters. Our results suggest that a moral framework is useful to explain willingness to take action in favor of and against nuclear energy, and that people are more likely to protest in favor of or against nuclear energy when PN are strong. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and possible risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Moayeri, Ardeshir; Mohamadpour, Mahmoud; Mousavi, Seyedeh Fatemeh; Shirzadpour, Ehsan; Mohamadpour, Safoura; Amraei, Mansour

2017-01-01

Aim Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk of bone fractures. A variable increase in fracture risk has been reported depending on skeletal site, diabetes duration, study design, insulin use, and so on. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association between T2DM with fracture risk and possible risk factors. Methods Different databases including PubMed, Institute for Scientific Information, and Scopus were searched up to May 2016. All epidemiologic studies on the association between T2DM and fracture risk were included. The relevant data obtained from these papers were analyzed by a random effects model and publication bias was assessed by funnel plot. All analyses were done by R software (version 3.2.1) and STATA (version 11.1). Results Thirty eligible studies were selected for the meta-analysis. We found a statistically significant positive association between T2DM and hip, vertebral, or foot fractures and no association between T2DM and wrist, proximal humerus, or ankle fractures. Overall, T2DM was associated with an increased risk of any fracture (summary relative risk =1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.06) and increased with age, duration of diabetes, and insulin therapy. Conclusion Our findings strongly support an association between T2DM and increased risk of overall fracture. These findings emphasize the need for fracture prevention strategies in patients with diabetes. PMID:28442913

Fracture experience among participants from the FROCAT study: what thresholding is appropriate using the FRAX tool?

PubMed

Azagra, R; Zwart, M; Aguyé, A; Martín-Sánchez, J C; Casado, E; Díaz-Herrera, M A; Moriña, D; Cooper, C; Díez-Pérez, A; Dennison, E M

2016-01-01

To perform an external validation of FRAX algorithm thresholds for reporting level of risk of fracture in Spanish women (low < 5%; intermediate ≥ 5% and < 7.5%; high ≥ 7.5%) taken from a prospective cohort "FRIDEX". A retrospective study of 1090 women aged ≥ 40 and ≤ 90 years old obtained from the general population (FROCAT cohort). FRAX was calculated with data registered in 2002. All fractures were validated in 2012. Sensitivity analysis was performed. When analyzing the cohort (884) excluding current or past anti osteoporotic medication (AOM), using our nominated thresholds, among the 621 (70.2%) women at low risk of fracture, 5.2% [CI95%: 3.4-7.6] sustained a fragility fracture; among the 99 at intermediate risk, 12.1% [6.4-20.2]; and among the 164 defined as high risk, 15.9% [10.6-24.2]. Sensitivity analysis against model risk stratification FRIDEX of FRAX Spain shows no significant difference. By including 206 women with AOM, the sensitivity analysis shows no difference in the group of intermediate and high risk and minimal differences in the low risk group. Our findings support and validate the use of FRIDEX thresholds of FRAX when discussing the risk of fracture and the initiation of therapy with patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of development of acute pancreatitis with pre-existing diabetes: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xue, Yuzheng; Sheng, Yingyue; Dai, Hong; Cao, Haiyan; Liu, Zongliang; Li, Zhaoshen

2012-09-01

It is well established that acute pancreatitis (AP) often causes diabetes mellitus. However, whether pre-existing diabetes is associated with the development of AP remains unknown. To clarify the association of pre-existing diabetes and the development of AP, we carried out a meta-analysis of observational studies. A computerized literature search was performed in MEDLINE (from 1 January 1966) and EMBASE (from 1 January 1974), through 31 January 2012. We also searched the reference lists of relevant articles. Summary relative risks with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2. A total of seven articles (10 523 incident cases of AP) were included in this meta-analysis. Analysis of seven studies indicated that, compared with nondiabetic individuals, diabetic individuals had a 92% increased risk of development of AP (95% CI 1.50-2.47). There was significant evidence of heterogeneity among these studies (P heterogeneity<0.001, I 2=93.0%). These increased risks were independent of alcohol use, gallstones, and hyperlipidemia. Although the current evidence supports a positive link between pre-existing diabetes and an increased risk of development of AP, additional studies, with a perfect design, are required before definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Colorectal Cancer Risk-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2017-09-20

Diet and chronic inflammation of the colon have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). The possible link between inflammatory potential of diet, measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ), and CRC has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from nine studies were eligible, of which five were case-control and four were cohort studies. Results from meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII scores, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CRC. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed an overall 40% increased risk of CRC with moderate evidence of heterogeneity [relative risk (RR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26, 1.55; I ² = 69%, p < 0.001]. When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CRC of 7% for a 1-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the four prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet in preventing CRC. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CRC.

Sensemaking, stakeholder discord, and long-term risk communication at a US Superfund site.

PubMed

Hoover, Anna Goodman

2017-03-01

Risk communication can help reduce exposures to environmental contaminants, mitigate negative health outcomes, and inform community-based decisions about hazardous waste sites. While communication best practices have long guided such efforts, little research has examined unintended consequences arising from such guidelines. As rhetoric informs stakeholder sensemaking, the language used in and reinforced by these guidelines can challenge relationships and exacerbate stakeholder tensions. This study evaluates risk communication at a U.S. Superfund site to identify unintended consequences arising from current risk communication practices. This qualitative case study crystallizes data spanning 6 years from three sources: 1) local newspaper coverage of site-related topics; 2) focus-group transcripts from a multi-year project designed to support future visioning of site use; and 3) published blog entries authored by a local environmental activist. Constant comparative analysis provides the study's analytic foundation, with qualitative data analysis software QSR NVivo 8 supporting a three-step process: 1) provisional coding to identify broad topic categories within datasets, 2) coding occurrences of sensemaking constructs and emergent intra-dataset patterns, and 3) grouping related codes across datasets to examine the relationships among them. Existing risk communication practices at this Superfund site contribute to a dichotomous conceptualization of multiple and diverse stakeholders as members of one of only two categories: the government or the public. This conceptualization minimizes perceptions of capacity, encourages public commitment to stances aligned with a preferred group, and contributes to negative expectations that can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Findings indicate a need to re-examine and adapt risk communication guidelines to encourage more pluralistic understanding of the stakeholder landscape.

A divide and conquer approach to cope with uncertainty, human health risk, and decision making in contaminant hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Bolster, Diogo; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Nowak, Wolfgang

2011-05-01

Assessing health risk in hydrological systems is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in the fields of hydrology and public health and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties and variabilities present in hydrological, physiological, and human behavioral parameters. Despite significant theoretical advancements in stochastic hydrology, there is still a dire need to further propagate these concepts to practical problems and to society in general. Following a recent line of work, we use fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis and to support related decision and management problems. Fault trees allow us to decompose the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural divide and conquer approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance, and stage of analysis. Three differences are highlighted in this paper when compared to previous works: (1) The fault tree proposed here accounts for the uncertainty in both hydrological and health components, (2) system failure within the fault tree is defined in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies that used fault trees used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows us to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

Risk as an attribute in discrete choice experiments: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Harrison, Mark; Rigby, Dan; Vass, Caroline; Flynn, Terry; Louviere, Jordan; Payne, Katherine

2014-01-01

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are used to elicit preferences of current and future patients and healthcare professionals about how they value different aspects of healthcare. Risk is an integral part of most healthcare decisions. Despite the use of risk attributes in DCEs consistently being highlighted as an area for further research, current methods of incorporating risk attributes in DCEs have not been reviewed explicitly. This study aimed to systematically identify published healthcare DCEs that incorporated a risk attribute, summarise and appraise methods used to present and analyse risk attributes, and recommend best practice regarding including, analysing and transparently reporting the methodology supporting risk attributes in future DCEs. The Web of Science, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Econlit databases were searched on 18 April 2013 for DCEs that included a risk attribute published since 1995, and on 23 April 2013 to identify studies assessing risk communication in the general (non-DCE) health literature. Healthcare-related DCEs with a risk attribute mentioned or suggested in the title/abstract were obtained and retained in the final review if a risk attribute meeting our definition was included. Extracted data were tabulated and critically appraised to summarise the quality of reporting, and the format, presentation and interpretation of the risk attribute were summarised. This review identified 117 healthcare DCEs that incorporated at least one risk attribute. Whilst there was some evidence of good practice incorporated into the presentation of risk attributes, little evidence was found that developing methods and recommendations from other disciplines about effective methods and validation of risk communication were systematically applied to DCEs. In general, the reviewed DCE studies did not thoroughly report the methodology supporting the explanation of risk in training materials, the impact of framing risk, or exploring the validity of risk communication. The primary limitation of this review was that the methods underlying presentation, format and analysis of risk attributes could only be appraised to the extent that they were reported. Improvements in reporting and transparency of risk presentation from conception to the analysis of DCEs are needed. To define best practice, further research is needed to test how the process of communicating risk affects the way in which people value risk attributes in DCEs.

Risk Analysis in Support of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program. Volume 1. Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-17

Analysis of Event Probability A-14 A.4.2 Analysis of Event Consequence A-14 A.4.2.1 Agent Release to Atmosphere A-14 A.4.2.2 Toxic P-lume Size A-16 A...Disposal Program (CSDP), which comprises several alternatives for carrying out the disposal effort (U.S. Army Toxic and Hazardous Materials Agency, 1986...or unavoidable accident or event could occur that would expose a nearby civilian population to these toxic chemicals. Such events could occur even

An evolutionary solution to anesthesia automated record keeping.

PubMed

Bicker, A A; Gage, J S; Poppers, P J

1998-08-01

In the course of five years the development of an automated anesthesia record keeper has evolved through nearly a dozen stages, each marked by new features and sophistication. Commodity PC hardware and software minimized development costs. Object oriented analysis, programming and design supported the process of change. In addition, we developed an evolutionary strategy that optimized motivation, risk management, and maximized return on investment. Besides providing record keeping services, the system supports educational and research activities and through a flexible plotting paradigm, supports each anesthesiologist's focus on physiological data during and after anesthesia.

[Relationship between job satisfaction and occupational stress in the workers of a thermal power plant].

PubMed

Gu, Gui-zhen; Yu, Shan-fa; Zhou, Wen-hui

2011-12-01

To explore the relationship between job satisfaction and occupational stress in the workers of a thermal power plant. The cluster sampling method was used to investigate 875 workers in a thermal power plant. The job satisfaction, occupational stressors, strains, personalities, meeting strategy and social support were measured using occupational stress instruments, job content questionnaire and effort-reward imbalance questionnaire. There were no significant differences of job satisfaction scores between different groups according to sex, educational level, marriage status, smoking and drinking (P > 0.05). But there were significant differences of job satisfaction scores between different age groups or between different service length groups (P < 0.01). The correlation analysis revealed that job satisfaction scores were related positively to responsibility for persons and things, promotion opportunity, job control, job stabilization, rewards, mental health, positive affectivity, self-esteem, superior support and coworker support scores (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01), negatively to role ambiguity and conflict, job future ambiguity, job demands, negative affectivity, depressive symptoms, patience, and mental locus of work control(P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). The results of variance analysis indicated that the job relationship, responsibility for persons and things, promotion opportunity, job control, job stabilization, reward, mental health, positive affectivity, self-esteem and buffer scores of the workers with high job satisfaction scores were significantly higher than those of workers with moderate and lower job satisfaction scores (P < 0.01), but the role ambiguity and conflict, job future ambiguity, job demands, and depressive symptoms scores and mental locus of work control of the workers with high job satisfaction scores were significantly lower than those of workers with moderate and lower job satisfaction scores (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of job dissatisfaction for workers with low reward was about four times as high as that for workers with high reward (OR = 3.773), the risks of job dissatisfaction for workers with low social support and mental locus of external work control were about two times as high as that for workers with high social support or mental locus of internal work control (OR = 2.419 and 2.219, respectively). The daily life stress, low control strategy, low support strategy, low job control and negative affectivity were risk factors of job dissatisfaction (OR = 1.125 approximately 1.790), but the self-esteem and positive affectivity could reduce the risk of job dissatisfaction. Increasing the decision level, social support, meeting strategy and reward or decreasing the role conflict and ambiguity, demands and negative affectivity could improve worker's job satisfaction level.

Risk For Postpartum Depression Among Immigrant Arabic Women in the United States: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Alhasanat, Dalia; Fry-McComish, Judith; Yarandi, Hossein N

2017-07-01

Postpartum depression (PPD) affects approximately 14% of women in the United States and 10% to 37% of Arabic women in the Middle East. Evidence suggests that immigrant women experience higher rates, but information on PPD among immigrant women of Arabic descent in the United States is nonexistent. A cross-sectional descriptive feasibility study was conducted to assess the practicality of implementing a larger proposed research study to examine predictors of PPD in US immigrant women of Arabic descent residing in Dearborn, Michigan. Fifty women were recruited from an Arab community center and completed demographic data, the Arabic version of the Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale (EPDS), and the Postpartum Depression Predictors Inventory-Revised (PDPI-R). Among participants, 36% were considered at high risk for developing PPD. Lack of social support, antenatal anxiety, antenatal depression, maternity blues (feeling depressed during the first 4 weeks postpartum), and life stress were significantly related to risk for PPD. Multiple regression analysis revealed that social support (t = -3.77, P < .0001) and maternity blues (t = 2.19, P = .03) were the only significant predictors for postpartum depressive symptoms. Findings of this study describe the prevalence of PPD in a sample of US immigrant women of Arabic descent and support the feasibility of a larger and more in-depth understanding of their immigration and acculturation experiences. Study participants reported high risk for PPD. Maternity blues and lack of social support were significant predictors to the risk for PPD. Future research tailored to this minority group is recommended. © 2017 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Prevention of abortion in cattle following vaccination against bovine herpesvirus 1: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Newcomer, Benjamin W; Cofield, L Grady; Walz, Paul H; Givens, M Daniel

2017-03-01

Bovine herpesvirus 1 is ubiquitous in cattle populations and is the cause of several clinical syndromes including respiratory disease, genital disease, and late-term abortions. Control of the virus in many parts of the world is achieved primarily through vaccination with either inactivated or modified-live viral vaccines. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the cumulative efficacy of BoHV-1 vaccination to prevent abortion in pregnant cattle. Germane articles for inclusion in the analysis were identified through four online scientific databases and the examination of three review and ten primary study article reference lists. A total of 15 studies in 10 manuscripts involving over 7500 animals were included in the meta-analysis. Risk ratio effect sizes were used in random effects, weighted meta-analyses to assess the impact of vaccination. Subgroup analyses were performed based on type of vaccine, MLV or inactivated, and the type of disease challenge, experimentally induced compared to field studies. A 60% decrease in abortion risk in vaccinated cattle was demonstrated. The greatest decrease in abortion risk was seen in studies with intentional viral challenge although vaccination also decreased abortion risk in field studies. Both inactivated and modified-live viral vaccines decreased abortion risk. This meta-analysis provides quantitative support for the benefit of bovine herpesvirus 1 vaccination in the prevention of abortion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of unknown parameters in hazardous materials transportation risk assessment.

PubMed

Pet-Armacost, J J; Sepulveda, J; Sakude, M

1999-12-01

The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the risk of toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Impact of Socioeconomic Status on Patients Supported With a Left Ventricular Assist Device: An Analysis of the UNOS Database (United Network for Organ Sharing).

PubMed

Clerkin, Kevin J; Garan, Arthur Reshad; Wayda, Brian; Givens, Raymond C; Yuzefpolskaya, Melana; Nakagawa, Shunichi; Takeda, Koji; Takayama, Hiroo; Naka, Yoshifumi; Mancini, Donna M; Colombo, Paolo C; Topkara, Veli K

2016-10-01

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is a known risk factor for heart failure, mortality among those with heart failure, and poor post heart transplant (HT) outcomes. This study sought to determine whether SES is associated with decreased waitlist survival while on left ventricular assist device (LVADs) support and after HT. A total of 3361 adult patients bridged to primary HT with an LVAD between May 2004 and April 2014 were identified in the UNOS database (United Network for Organ Sharing). SES was measured using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality SES index using data from the 2014 American Community Survey. In the study cohort, SES did not have an association with the combined end point of death or delisting on LVAD support (P=0.30). In a cause-specific unadjusted model, those in the top (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.11; P=0.005) and second greatest SES quartile (hazard ratio 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.04; P=0.01) had an increased risk of death on device support compared with the lowest SES quartile. Adjusting for clinical risk factors mitigated the increased risk. There was no association between SES and complications. Post-HT survival, both crude and adjusted, was decreased for patients in the lowest quartile of SES index compared with all other SES quartiles. Freedom from waitlist death or delisting was not affected by SES. Patients with a higher SES had an increased unadjusted risk of waitlist mortality during LVAD support, which was mitigated by adjusting for increased comorbid conditions. Low SES was associated with worse post-HT outcomes. Further study is needed to confirm and understand a differential effect of SES on post-transplant outcomes that was not seen during LVAD support before HT. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

US Food and Drug Administration Clearance of Moderate-Risk Otolaryngologic Devices via the 510(k) Process, 1997-2016.

PubMed

Rathi, Vinay K; Gadkaree, Shekhar K; Ross, Joseph S; Kozin, Elliott D; Sethi, Rosh K; Naunheim, Matthew R; Puram, Sidharth V; Gray, Stacey T

2017-10-01

Objective The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) clears moderate-risk devices via the 510(k) process based on substantial equivalence to previously cleared devices; evidence of safety and effectiveness is not required. We characterized the premarket evidence supporting FDA clearance of otolaryngologic devices. Study Design Retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Setting Publicly available FDA documents. Subjects and Methods Recently cleared (1997-2016) moderate-risk otolaryngologic devices were categorized by type (diagnostic/therapeutic), subspecialty, implantable designation (yes/no), and recall history (yes/no). Supporting evidence was categorized by type (clinical/nonclinical/none; nonclinical and clinical mutually inclusive) and public availability of nonclinical and clinical performance data (available/not provided/not applicable). Results Between 1997 and 2016, the FDA cleared 377 moderate-risk otolaryngologic devices. The majority were therapeutic (n = 240/377 [63.7%]) and otologic (n = 311/377 [82.5%]); roughly one-third (n = 121/377 [32.1%]) were implantable. Few (n = 10/377 [2.7%]) devices were subject to recall. FDA documents summarizing premarket evidence were accessible for two-thirds (n = 247/377 [65.5%]) of devices. Among these devices, one-quarter (n = 66/247 [26.7%]) were supported by clinical evidence. The majority (n = 177/247 [71.7%]) were supported by nonclinical evidence, although nearly one-quarter (n = 58/247 [23.5%]) were cleared without supporting evidence. Therapeutic devices were more often cleared without supporting evidence (therapeutic: n = 53/170 [31.2%]; diagnostic: n = 5/77 [6.5%]; P < .0001). Nonclinical and clinical performance data were rarely available (nonclinical: n = 49/247 [19.8%]; clinical: n = 32/247 [13.0%]) within public summaries. Conclusion The FDA cleared most moderate-risk otolaryngologic devices for marketing via the 510(k) process without clinical evidence of safety and effectiveness. Otolaryngologists should be aware of limitations in premarket evidence when considering the adoption of new devices into clinical practice.

Predictors of Shunt-dependent Hydrocephalus After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Xie, Zhiyi; Hu, Xin; Zan, Xin; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

2017-10-01

Hydrocephalus is a well-recognized complication after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). This study aimed to identify predictors for shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (SDHC) after aSAH via a systematic review and meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted using the Embase, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases for studies pertaining to aSAH and SDHC. Risk factors were assessed by meta-analysis when they were reported by at least 2 studies. The results were presented as odd ratios or risk ratios according to the study design with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Twenty-five studies were included. In primary analysis of 14 potential risk factors, 12 were identified as predictors of SDHC after aSAH including age ≥50 years, female gender, high Hunt-Hess grade, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤8, Fisher grade ≥3, acute hydrocephalus, external ventricular drainage insertion, intraventricular hemorrhage, postcirculation aneurysm, anterior communicating artery aneurysm, meningitis, and rebleeding. The meta-analysis based on cohort studies found a significantly increased risk for SDHC in patients with aSAH treated by coiling (risk ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29), while the meta-analysis based on case-controlled studies failed to replicate this finding (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.95-1.71). Several new predictors of SDHC after aSAH were identified that may assist with the early recognition and prevention of SDHC. The controversial evidence found in this study was insufficient to support the potential of neurosurgical clipping for reducing the risk of shunt dependency. Further well-designed studies are warranted to explore the effect of treatment modality on SDHC risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision support systems and methods for complex networks

DOEpatents

Huang, Zhenyu [Richland, WA; Wong, Pak Chung [Richland, WA; Ma, Jian [Richland, WA; Mackey, Patrick S [Richland, WA; Chen, Yousu [Richland, WA; Schneider, Kevin P [Seattle, WA

2012-02-28

Methods and systems for automated decision support in analyzing operation data from a complex network. Embodiments of the present invention utilize these algorithms and techniques not only to characterize the past and present condition of a complex network, but also to predict future conditions to help operators anticipate deteriorating and/or problem situations. In particular, embodiments of the present invention characterize network conditions from operation data using a state estimator. Contingency scenarios can then be generated based on those network conditions. For at least a portion of all of the contingency scenarios, risk indices are determined that describe the potential impact of each of those scenarios. Contingency scenarios with risk indices are presented visually as graphical representations in the context of a visual representation of the complex network. Analysis of the historical risk indices based on the graphical representations can then provide trends that allow for prediction of future network conditions.

The feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led chronic disease management interventions in primary care: An integrative review.

PubMed

Stephen, Catherine; McInnes, Susan; Halcomb, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

To explore the feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led chronic disease management and lifestyle risk factor reduction interventions in primary care (general practice/family practice). Growing international evidence suggests that interventions delivered by primary care nurses can assist in modifying lifestyle risk factors and managing chronic disease. To date, there has been limited exploration of the feasibility and acceptability of such interventions. Integrative review guided by the work of Whittemore and Knafl (). Database search of CINAHL, Medline and Web of Science was conducted to identify relevant literature published between 2000-2015. Papers were assessed for methodological quality and data abstracted before thematic analysis was undertaken. Eleven papers met the inclusion criteria. Analysis uncovered four themes: (1) facilitators of interventions; (2) barriers to interventions; (3) consumer satisfaction; and (4) primary care nurse role. Literature supports the feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led interventions in primary care for lifestyle risk factor modification. The ongoing sustainability of these interventions rests largely on organizational factors such as funding, educational pathways and professional support of the primary care nursing role. Further robust research around primary care nurse interventions is required to strengthen the evidence base. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix B - system descriptions and fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix B provides a description of Browns Ferry, Unit 1, plant systems and the failure evaluation of those systems as they apply to accidents at Browns Ferry. Information is presented concerning front-line system fault analysis; support system fault analysis; human error models andmore » probabilities; and generic control circuit analyses.« less

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Cardiovascular Risk and Mortality-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2018-02-12

Diet and chronic inflammation have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related mortality. The possible link between the inflammatory potential of diet measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ) and CVD has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from 14 studies were eligible, of which two were case-control, eleven were cohort, and one was cross-sectional. Results from the random-effects meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CVD. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed a 36% increased risk of CVD incidence and mortality, with moderate evidence of heterogeneity (relative risk (RR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.57; heterogeneity index I ² = 69%, p < 0.001). When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CVD risk and mortality of 8% for each one-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet for preventing CVD incidence and related mortality. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk of CVD and CVD mortality. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CVD incidence and mortality.

Risk factors of child physical abuse by parents with mixed anxiety-depressive disorder or posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Kalebić Jakupčević, Katija; Ajduković, Marina

2011-02-01

To determine the risk that parents with mixed anxiety and depressive disorder (MADD) or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) will physically abuse their child and evaluate the specific contribution of mental health, perceived social support, experience of childhood abuse, and attributes of family relations to the risk of child physical abuse. The study conducted in 2007 included men (n = 25) and women (n = 25) with a diagnosis of MADD, men with a diagnosis of PTSD (n = 30), and a control sample of parents from the general population (n = 100, 45 men and 55 women) with children of elementary school age. General Information Questionnaire, Child Abuse Experience Inventory, Perceived Social Support Scale, and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory (CAPI) Clinical Abuse Scale were used. Total results on the Clinical Abuse Scale of the CAPI indicated higher risk of child physical abuse in parents with MADD (273.3 ± 13.6) and in fathers with PTSD (333.21 ± 17.98) than in parents from the general population (79.6 ± 9.9) (F = 110.40, P < 0.001; tPTSD,MADD = 13.73, P < 0.001). A hierarchical regression analysis showed that the greatest predictors in the multivariate model were mental health difficulties, poorer economic status, poor social support, and physical and verbal aggression in partner conflicts. Parents with MADD and PTSD exhibit high risk of child abuse. Since parents with PTSD have significantly higher risk of child abuse than parents with MADD, further large-sample research is needed to clarify the relationship between PTSD intensity and the risk of child abuse.

The impact of parental and peer social support on dating violence perpetration and victimization among female adolescents: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Richards, Tara N; Branch, Kathryn A; Ray, Katherine

2014-01-01

Little is known about the role social support may play in reducing the risk of adolescent dating violence perpetration and victimization. This study is a longitudinal analysis of the independent impact of social support from friends and parents on the risk of emotional and physical dating violence perpetration and victimization among a large sample of female youth (n = 346). Findings indicate that 22% of the sample indicated perpetrating physical dating violence against a partner, whereas almost 16% revealed being the victim of physical dating violence; 34% of the sample indicated perpetrating emotional dating violence against a partner, whereas almost 39% revealed being the victim of emotional dating violence. Negative binomial regression models indicated that increased levels of support from friends at Time 1 was associated with significantly less physical and emotional dating violence perpetration and emotional (but not physical) dating violence victimization at Time 2. Parental support was not significantly related to dating violence in any model. Implications for dating violence curriculum and future research are addressed.

Building a Computer Program to Support Children, Parents, and Distraction during Healthcare Procedures

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Ann Marie; Kleiber, Charmaine; Ataman, Kaan; Street, W. Nick; Zimmerman, M. Bridget; Ersig, Anne L.

2012-01-01

This secondary data analysis used data mining methods to develop predictive models of child risk for distress during a healthcare procedure. Data used came from a study that predicted factors associated with children’s responses to an intravenous catheter insertion while parents provided distraction coaching. From the 255 items used in the primary study, 44 predictive items were identified through automatic feature selection and used to build support vector machine regression models. Models were validated using multiple cross-validation tests and by comparing variables identified as explanatory in the traditional versus support vector machine regression. Rule-based approaches were applied to the model outputs to identify overall risk for distress. A decision tree was then applied to evidence-based instructions for tailoring distraction to characteristics and preferences of the parent and child. The resulting decision support computer application, the Children, Parents and Distraction (CPaD), is being used in research. Future use will support practitioners in deciding the level and type of distraction intervention needed by a child undergoing a healthcare procedure. PMID:22805121

Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shatkin, J. A.; Ong, Kimberly J.; Beaudrie, Christian

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATSmore » use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.« less

Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement.

PubMed

Shatkin, J A; Ong, Kimberly J; Beaudrie, Christian; Clippinger, Amy J; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Haber, Lynne T; Hill, Myriam; Holden, Patricia; Kennedy, Alan J; Kim, Baram; MacDonell, Margaret; Powers, Christina M; Sharma, Monita; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Stone, Vicki; Sultan, Yasir; Turley, Audrey; White, Ronald H

2016-08-01

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Initial Validation of a Comprehensive Assessment Instrument for Bereavement-Related Grief Symptoms and Risk of Complications: The Indicator of Bereavement Adaptation—Cruse Scotland (IBACS)

PubMed Central

Schut, Henk; Stroebe, Margaret S.; Wilson, Stewart; Birrell, John

2016-01-01

Objective This study assessed the validity of the Indicator of Bereavement Adaptation Cruse Scotland (IBACS). Designed for use in clinical and non-clinical settings, the IBACS measures severity of grief symptoms and risk of developing complications. Method N = 196 (44 male, 152 female) help-seeking, bereaved Scottish adults participated at two timepoints: T1 (baseline) and T2 (after 18 months). Four validated assessment instruments were administered: CORE-R, ICG-R, IES-R, SCL-90-R. Discriminative ability was assessed using ROC curve analysis. Concurrent validity was tested through correlation analysis at T1. Predictive validity was assessed using correlation analyses and ROC curve analysis. Optimal IBACS cutoff values were obtained by calculating a maximal Youden index J in ROC curve analysis. Clinical implications were compared across instruments. Results ROC curve analysis results (AUC = .84, p < .01, 95% CI between .77 and .90) indicated the IBACS is a good diagnostic instrument for assessing complicated grief. Positive correlations (p < .01, 2-tailed) with all four instruments at T1 demonstrated the IBACS' concurrent validity, strongest with complicated grief measures (r = .82). Predictive validity was shown to be fair in T2 ROC curve analysis results (n = 67, AUC = .78, 95% CI between .65 and .92; p < .01). Predictive validity was also supported by stable positive correlations between IBACS and other instruments at T2. Clinical indications were found not to differ across instruments. Conclusions The IBACS offers effective grief symptom and risk assessment for use by non-clinicians. Indications are sufficient to support intake assessment for a stepped model of bereavement intervention. PMID:27741246

Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

PubMed

Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

2018-04-01

In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies

PubMed Central

Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-01

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture. PMID:27911854

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-10

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.

[Social networks in drinking behaviors among Japanese: support network, drinking network, and intervening network].

PubMed

Yoshihara, Chika; Shimizu, Shinji

2005-10-01

The national representative sample was analyzed to examine the relationship between respondents' drinking practice and the social network which was constructed of three different types of network: support network, drinking network, and intervening network. Non-parametric statistical analysis was conducted with chi square method and ANOVA analysis, due to the risk of small samples in some basic tabulation cells. The main results are as follows: (1) In the support network of workplace associates, moderate drinkers enjoyed much more sociable support care than both nondrinkers and hard drinkers, which might suggest a similar effect as the French paradox. Meanwhile in the familial and kinship network, the more intervening care support was provided, the harder respondents' drinking practice. (2) The drinking network among Japanese people for both sexes is likely to be convergent upon certain types of network categories and not decentralized in various categories. This might reflect of the drinking culture of Japan, which permits people to drink everyday as a practice, especially male drinkers. Subsequently, solitary drinking is not optional for female drinkers. (3) Intervening network analysis showed that the harder the respondents' drinking practices, the more frequently their drinking behaviors were checked in almost all the categories of network. A rather complicated gender double-standard was found in the network of hard drinkers with their friends, particularly for female drinkers. Medical professionals played a similar intervening role for men as family and kinship networks but to a less degree than friends for females. The social network is considerably associated with respondents' drinking, providing both sociability for moderate drinkers and intervention for hard drinkers, depending on network categories. To minimize the risk of hard drinking and advance self-healthy drinking there should be more research development on drinking practice and the social network.

DISEASE RISK ANALYSIS--A TOOL FOR POLICY MAKING WHEN EVIDENCE IS LACKING: IMPORT OF RABIES-SUSCEPTIBLE ZOO MAMMALS AS A MODEL.

PubMed

Hartley, Matt; Roberts, Helen

2015-09-01

Disease control management relies on the development of policy supported by an evidence base. The evidence base for disease in zoo animals is often absent or incomplete. Resources for disease research in these species are limited, and so in order to develop effective policies, novel approaches to extrapolating knowledge and dealing with uncertainty need to be developed. This article demonstrates how qualitative risk analysis techniques can be used to aid decision-making in circumstances in which there is a lack of specific evidence using the import of rabies-susceptible zoo mammals into the United Kingdom as a model.

The moderating role of social support on the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk.

PubMed

Kleiman, Evan M; Riskind, John H; Schaefer, Karen E; Weingarden, Hilary

2012-01-01

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among college students. There has been considerable research into risk factors for suicide, such as impulsivity, but considerably less research on protective factors. The present study examines the role that social support plays in the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk. Participants were 169 undergraduates who completed self-report measures of impulsivity and social support. Suicide risk was assessed using an interview measure. Social support moderates the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk, such that those who are highly impulsive are less likely to be at risk for suicide if they also have high levels of social support. Social support can be a useful buffer to suicide risk for at-risk individuals who are highly impulsive.

Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain: application and evaluation of a risk management framework.

PubMed

Salmon, P; Williamson, A; Lenné, M; Mitsopoulos-Rubens, E; Rudin-Brown, C M

2010-08-01

Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Accidents represent a significant problem within the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an evaluation of a risk management framework that can be used to understand such accidents and to inform the development of accident countermeasures and mitigation strategies for the led outdoor activity domain.

The application of decision analysis to life support research and technology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballin, Mark G.

1994-01-01

Applied research and technology development is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Decision making regarding which technologies to advance and what resources to devote to them is a challenging but essential task. In the application of life support technology to future manned space flight, new technology concepts typically are characterized by nonexistent data and rough approximations of technology performance, uncertain future flight program needs, and a complex, time-intensive process to develop technology to a flight-ready status. Decision analysis is a quantitative, logic-based discipline that imposes formalism and structure to complex problems. It also accounts for the limits of knowledge that may be available at the time a decision is needed. The utility of decision analysis to life support technology R & D was evaluated by applying it to two case studies. The methodology was found to provide insight that is not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

The future of medical diagnostics: large digitized databases.

PubMed

Kerr, Wesley T; Lau, Edward P; Owens, Gwen E; Trefler, Aaron

2012-09-01

The electronic health record mandate within the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will have a far-reaching affect on medicine. In this article, we provide an in-depth analysis of how this mandate is expected to stimulate the production of large-scale, digitized databases of patient information. There is evidence to suggest that millions of patients and the National Institutes of Health will fully support the mining of such databases to better understand the process of diagnosing patients. This data mining likely will reaffirm and quantify known risk factors for many diagnoses. This quantification may be leveraged to further develop computer-aided diagnostic tools that weigh risk factors and provide decision support for health care providers. We expect that creation of these databases will stimulate the development of computer-aided diagnostic support tools that will become an integral part of modern medicine.

Risk perception and motivation to quit smoking: a partial test of the Health Action Process Approach.

PubMed

Williams, Rebecca J; Herzog, Thaddeus A; Simmons, Vani N

2011-07-01

The Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) posits a distinction between pre-intentional motivation processes and a post-intentional volition process that leads to the actual behavior change. For smoking cessation, the HAPA predicts that increased risk perceptions would foster a decision to quit smoking. From a cross-sectional perspective, the HAPA predicts that those who do not intend to quit (non-intenders) should have lower risk perceptions than those who do intend to quit (intenders). Adult smokers participated in a cross-sectional survey. Multiple measures of motivation to quit smoking and risk perceptions for smoking were assessed. ANOVA and contrast analysis were employed for data analysis. The results were generally supportive of the HAPA. Non-intenders had systematically lower risk perceptions compared to intenders. Most of these findings were statistically significant. The results demonstrated that risk perceptions distinguish non-intenders from intenders. These results suggest that smokers low in motivation to quit could benefit from information and reminders about the serious health problems caused by smoking. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing security risks for inter-organisational information systems: a multiagent collaborative model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Nan; Wu, Harris; Li, Minqiang; Wu, Desheng; Chen, Fuzan; Tian, Jin

2016-09-01

Information sharing across organisations is critical to effectively managing the security risks of inter-organisational information systems. Nevertheless, few previous studies on information systems security have focused on inter-organisational information sharing, and none have studied the sharing of inferred beliefs versus factual observations. In this article, a multiagent collaborative model (MACM) is proposed as a practical solution to assess the risk level of each allied organisation's information system and support proactive security treatment by sharing beliefs on event probabilities as well as factual observations. In MACM, for each allied organisation's information system, we design four types of agents: inspection agent, analysis agent, control agent, and communication agent. By sharing soft findings (beliefs) in addition to hard findings (factual observations) among the organisations, each organisation's analysis agent is capable of dynamically predicting its security risk level using a Bayesian network. A real-world implementation illustrates how our model can be used to manage security risks in distributed information systems and that sharing soft findings leads to lower expected loss from security risks.

Registry-based Diabetes Risk Detection Schema for the Systematic Identification of Patients at Risk for Diabetes in West Virginia Primary Care Centers

PubMed Central

Baus, Adam; Wood, Gina; Pollard, Cecil; Summerfield, Belinda; White, Emma

2013-01-01

Approximately 466,000 West Virginians, or about 25 percent of the state population, have prediabetes and are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes. Appropriate lifestyle intervention can prevent or delay the onset of type 2 diabetes if individuals at risk are identified and treated early. The West Virginia Diabetes Prevention and Control Program and the West Virginia University Office of Health Services Research are developing a systematic approach to diabetes prevention within primary care. This study aims to demonstrate the viability of patient registry software for the analysis of disparate electronic health record (EHR) data sets and standardized identification of at-risk patients for early detection and intervention. Preliminary analysis revealed that of 94,283 patients without a documented diagnosis of diabetes or prediabetes, 10,673 (11.3 percent) meet one or more of the risk criteria. This study indicates that EHR data can be repurposed into an actionable registry for prevention. This model supports meaningful use of EHRs, the Patient-Centered Medical Home program, and improved care through enhanced data management. PMID:24159274

Haloacetic acids in drinking water and risk for stillbirth.

PubMed

King, W D; Dodds, L; Allen, A C; Armson, B A; Fell, D; Nimrod, C

2005-02-01

Trihalomethanes (THMs) occurring in public drinking water sources have been investigated in several epidemiological studies of fetal death and results support a modest association. Other classes of disinfection by-products found in drinking water have not been investigated. To investigate the effects of haloacetic acid (HAA) compounds in drinking water on stillbirth risk. A population based case-control study was conducted in Nova Scotia and Eastern Ontario, Canada. Estimates of daily exposure to total and specific HAAs were based on household water samples and questionnaire information on water consumption at home and work. The analysis included 112 stillbirth cases and 398 live birth controls. In analysis without adjustment for total THM exposure, a relative risk greater than 2 was observed for an intermediate exposure category for total HAA and dichloroacetic acid measures. After adjustment for total THM exposure, the risk estimates for intermediate exposure categories were diminished, the relative risk associated with the highest category was in the direction of a protective effect, and all confidence intervals included the null value. No association was observed between HAA exposures and stillbirth risk after controlling for THM exposures.

The Impact of Suicide Bereavement on Educational and Occupational Functioning: A Qualitative Study of 460 Bereaved Adults.

PubMed

Pitman, Alexandra; Khrisna Putri, Adelia; De Souza, Tanisha; Stevenson, Fiona; King, Michael; Osborn, David; Morant, Nicola

2018-03-31

People bereaved by suicide are at an increased risk of suicide and of dropping out of education or work. Explanations for these associations are unclear, and more research is needed to understand how improving support in educational or work settings for people bereaved by suicide might contribute to reducing suicide risk. Our objective was to explore the impact of suicide on occupational functioning. We conducted a cross-sectional online study of bereaved adults aged 18-40, recruited from staff and students of British higher educational institutions in 2010. We used thematic analysis to analyse free text responses to two questions probing the impact of suicide bereavement on work and education. Our analysis of responses from 460 adults bereaved by suicide identified three main themes: (i) specific aspects of grief that impacted on work performance, cognitive and emotional domains, and social confidence; (ii) structural challenges in work or educational settings including a lack of institutional support, the impact of taking time off, and changes to caring roles; and (iii) new perspectives on the role of work, including determination to achieve. Institutional support should be tailored to take account of the difficulties and experiences described.

The Impact of Suicide Bereavement on Educational and Occupational Functioning: A Qualitative Study of 460 Bereaved Adults

PubMed Central

Khrisna Putri, Adelia; De Souza, Tanisha; Stevenson, Fiona; King, Michael; Osborn, David; Morant, Nicola

2018-01-01

People bereaved by suicide are at an increased risk of suicide and of dropping out of education or work. Explanations for these associations are unclear, and more research is needed to understand how improving support in educational or work settings for people bereaved by suicide might contribute to reducing suicide risk. Our objective was to explore the impact of suicide on occupational functioning. We conducted a cross-sectional online study of bereaved adults aged 18–40, recruited from staff and students of British higher educational institutions in 2010. We used thematic analysis to analyse free text responses to two questions probing the impact of suicide bereavement on work and education. Our analysis of responses from 460 adults bereaved by suicide identified three main themes: (i) specific aspects of grief that impacted on work performance, cognitive and emotional domains, and social confidence; (ii) structural challenges in work or educational settings including a lack of institutional support, the impact of taking time off, and changes to caring roles; and (iii) new perspectives on the role of work, including determination to achieve. Institutional support should be tailored to take account of the difficulties and experiences described. PMID:29614731

Application of Athletic Movement Tests that Predict Injury Risk in a Military Population: Development of Normative Data.

PubMed

Teyhen, Deydre S; Shaffer, Scott W; Butler, Robert J; Goffar, Stephen L; Kiesel, Kyle B; Rhon, Daniel I; Boyles, Robert E; McMillian, Daniel J; Williamson, Jared N; Plisky, Phillip J

2016-10-01

Performance on movement tests helps to predict injury risk in a variety of physically active populations. Understanding baseline measures for normal is an important first step. Determine differences in physical performance assessments and describe normative values for these tests based on military unit type. Assessment of power, balance, mobility, motor control, and performance on the Army Physical Fitness Test were assessed in a cohort of 1,466 soldiers. Analysis of variance was performed to compare the results based on military unit type (Rangers, Combat, Combat Service, and Combat Service Support) and analysis of covariance was performed to determine the influence of age and gender. Rangers performed the best on all performance and fitness measures (p < 0.05). Combat soldiers performed better than Combat Service and Service Support soldiers on several physical performance tests and the Army Physical Fitness Test (p < 0.05). Performance in Combat Service and Service Support soldiers was equivalent on most measures (p < 0.05). Functional performance and level of fitness varied significantly by military unit type. Understanding these differences will provide a foundation for future injury prediction and prevention strategies. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

A prospective study of factors associated with risk of turnover among care workers in group homes for elderly individuals with dementia.

PubMed

Suzumura, Miwa; Fushiki, Yasuhiro; Kobayashi, Kota; Oura, Asae; Suzumura, Shigeo; Yamashita, Masafumi; Mori, Mitsuru

2013-01-01

A prospective study was conducted to assess factors associated with risk of turnover among care workers in group homes (GHs) for elderly individuals with dementia. In January, 2010, 51 out of 238 GHs in Sapporo City responded to our request for participation in a survey. During February and March of 2010, 438 out of 700 care workers (62.6%) in the GHs returned a completed questionnaire to us. They were followed up with until March of 2012, and 395 subjects (90.1%) responded to our survey, which was conducted twice. Over the course of 2 years, 91 subjects left their jobs. Cox's proportional hazards model was used for analysis, adjusting for gender and age. Less provision of social support by supervisors, colleagues, family or friends was significantly associated with increased risk of turnover. Financial aids for off-the-job training was marginally significantly associated with reduced risk of turnover. Longer duration of working for frail elderly care was significantly associated with decreased risk of turnover. Habitual smoking was significantly associated with increased risk of turnover. Social support in the workplace may be important to reduce the risk of turnover in care workers at GHs. Further prospective studies are required in other areas in Japan.

PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

2015-06-01

PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

A Two-Layer Least Squares Support Vector Machine Approach to Credit Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jingli; Li, Jianping; Xu, Weixuan; Shi, Yong

Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is a revised version of support vector machine (SVM) and has been proved to be a useful tool for pattern recognition. LS-SVM had excellent generalization performance and low computational cost. In this paper, we propose a new method called two-layer least squares support vector machine which combines kernel principle component analysis (KPCA) and linear programming form of least square support vector machine. With this method sparseness and robustness is obtained while solving large dimensional and large scale database. A U.S. commercial credit card database is used to test the efficiency of our method and the result proved to be a satisfactory one.

Model Based Mission Assurance: Emerging Opportunities for Robotic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, John W.; DiVenti, Tony

2016-01-01

The emergence of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in a Model Based Engineering framework has created new opportunities to improve effectiveness and efficiencies across the assurance functions. The MBSE environment supports not only system architecture development, but provides for support of Systems Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis concurrently in the same framework. Linking to detailed design will further improve assurance capabilities to support failures avoidance and mitigation in flight systems. This also is leading new assurance functions including model assurance and management of uncertainty in the modeling environment. Further, the assurance cases, a structured hierarchal argument or model, are emerging as a basis for supporting a comprehensive viewpoint in which to support Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA).

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merrill, Robin L.; Thomas, Gretchen A.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

Mapping for the management of diffuse pollution risks related to agricultural plant protection practices: case of the Etang de l'Or catchment area in France.

PubMed

Mghirbi, Oussama; Bord, Jean-Paul; Le Grusse, Philippe; Mandart, Elisabeth; Fabre, Jacques

2018-03-08

Faced with health, environmental, and socio-economic issues related to the heavy use of pesticides, diffuse phytosanitary pollution becomes a major concern shared by all the field actors. These actors, namely the farmers and territorial managers, have expressed the need to implement decision support tools for the territorial management of diffuse pollution resulting from the plant protection practices and their impacts. To meet these steadily increasing requests, a cartographic analysis approach was implemented based on GIS which allows the spatialization of the diffuse pollution impacts related to plant protection practices on the Etang de l'Or catchment area in the South of France. Risk mapping represents a support-decision tool that enables the different field actors to identify and locate vulnerable areas, so as to determine action plans and agri-environmental measures depending on the context of the natural environment. This work shows that mapping is helpful for managing risks related to the use of pesticides in agriculture by employing indicators of pressure (TFI) and risk on the applicator's health (IRSA) and on the environment (IRTE). These indicators were designed to assess the impact of plant protection practices at various spatial scales (field, farm, etc.). The cartographic analysis of risks related to plant protection practices shows that diffuse pollution is unequally located in the North (known for its abundant garrigues and vineyards) and in the South of the Etang de l'Or catchment area (the Mauguio-Lunel agricultural plain known for its diversified cropping systems). This spatial inequity is essentially related to land use and agricultural production system. Indeed, the agricultural lands cover about 60% of the total catchment area. Consequently, this cartographic analysis helps the territorial actors with the implementation of strategies for managing risks of diffuse pollution related to pesticides use in agriculture, based on environmental and socio-economic issues and the characteristics of the natural environment.

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Astronaut Risk Levels During Crew Module (CM) Land Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, Charles; Carney, Kelly S.; Littell, Justin

2007-01-01

The NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) is investigating the merits of water and land landings for the crew exploration vehicle (CEV). The merits of these two options are being studied in terms of cost and risk to the astronauts, vehicle, support personnel, and general public. The objective of the present work is to determine the astronaut dynamic response index (DRI), which measures injury risks. Risks are determined for a range of vertical and horizontal landing velocities. A structural model of the crew module (CM) is developed and computational simulations are performed using a transient dynamic simulation analysis code (LS-DYNA) to determine acceleration profiles. Landing acceleration profiles are input in a human factors model that determines astronaut risk levels. Details of the modeling approach, the resulting accelerations, and astronaut risk levels are provided.

Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular. PMID:22206355

A Shortened Version of the Suicide Cognitions Scale for Identifying Chronic Pain Patients at Risk for Suicide.

PubMed

Bryan, Craig J; Kanzler, Kathryn E; Grieser, Emily; Martinez, Annette; Allison, Sybil; McGeary, Donald

2017-03-01

Research in psychiatric outpatient and inpatient populations supports the utility of the Suicide Cognitions Scale (SCS) as an indicator of current and future risk for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Designed to assess suicide-specific thoughts and beliefs, the SCS has yet to be evaluated among chronic pain patients, a group with elevated risk for suicide. The purpose of the present study was to develop and test a shortened version of the SCS (the SCS-S). A total of 228 chronic pain patients completed a battery of self-report surveys before or after a scheduled appointment. Three outpatient medical clinics (pain medicine, orofacial pain, and clinical health psychology). Confirmatory factor analysis, multivariate regression, and graded item response theory model analyses. Results of the CFAs suggested that a 3-factor solution was optimal. A shortened 9-item scale was identified based on the results of graded item response theory model analyses. Correlation and multivariate analyses supported the construct and incremental validity of the SCS-S. Results support the reliability and validity of the SCS-S among chronic pain patients, and suggest the scale may be a useful method for identifying high-risk patients in medical settings. © 2016 World Institute of Pain.

Applicability of the Common Safety Method for Risk Evaluation and Assessment (CSM-RA) to the Space Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, Francisco; Silva, Nuno

2016-08-01

Safety systems require accident avoidance. This is covered by application standards, processes, techniques and tools that support the identification, analysis, elimination or reduction to an acceptable level of system risks and hazards. Ideally, a safety system should be free of hazards. However, both industry and academia have been struggling to ensure appropriate risk and hazard analysis, especially in what concerns completeness of the hazards, formalization, and timely analysis in order to influence the specifications and the implementation. Such analysis is also important when considering a change to an existing system. The Common Safety Method for Risk Evaluation and Assessment (CSM- RA) is a mandatory procedure whenever any significant change is proposed to the railway system in a European Member State. This paper provides insights on the fundamentals of CSM-RA based and complemented with Hazard Analysis. When and how to apply them, and the relation and similarities of these processes with industry standards and the system life cycles is highlighted. Finally, the paper shows how CSM-RA can be the basis of a change management process, guiding the identification and management of the hazards helping ensuring the similar safety level as the initial system. This paper will show how the CSM-RA principles can be used in other domains particularly for space system evolution.

Protective effects of self-esteem and family support on suicide risk behaviors among at-risk adolescents.

PubMed

Sharaf, Amira Y; Thompson, Elaine A; Walsh, Elaine

2009-08-01

If and how family support and self-esteem might interact to protect against adolescent suicide risk is not well understood. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to examine the moderating effect of family support on the relationship between self-esteem and suicide risk behaviors among potential high school dropouts (N = 849), using questionnaires and in-depth assessment interviews. Family support moderated the impact of self-esteem on suicide risk; the ameliorating effect of self-esteem was stronger among adolescents with low versus high family support. Self-esteem influences adolescent suicide risk behaviors for youth with low as well as high family support. Interventions designed to strengthen both self-esteem and support resources are appropriate.

Health care professionals' attitudes towards population-based genetic testing and risk-stratification for ovarian cancer: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Hann, Katie E J; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Waller, Jo; Sanderson, Saskia C; Freeman, Madeleine; Jacobs, Ian; Lanceley, Anne

2017-12-16

Ovarian cancer is usually diagnosed at a late stage when outcomes are poor. Personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction, based on genetic and epidemiological information and risk stratified management in adult women could improve outcomes. Examining health care professionals' (HCP) attitudes to ovarian cancer risk stratified management, willingness to support women, self-efficacy (belief in one's own ability to successfully complete a task), and knowledge about ovarian cancer will help identify training needs in anticipation of personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction being introduced. An anonymous survey was distributed online to HCPs via relevant professional organisations in the UK. Kruskal-Wallis tests and pairwise comparisons were used to compare knowledge and self-efficacy scores between different types of HCPs, and attitudes toward population-based genetic testing and risk stratified management were described. Content analysis was undertaken of free text responses concerning HCPs willingness to discuss risk management options with women. One hundred forty-six eligible HCPs completed the survey: oncologists (31%); genetics clinicians (30%); general practitioners (22%); gynaecologists (10%); nurses (4%); and 'others'. Scores for knowledge of ovarian cancer and genetics, and self-efficacy in conducting a cancer risk consultation were generally high but significantly lower for general practitioners compared to genetics clinicians, oncologists, and gynaecologists. Support for population-based genetic testing was not high (<50%). Attitudes towards ovarian cancer risk stratification were mixed, although the majority of participants indicated a willingness to discuss management options with patients. Larger samples are required to investigate attitudes to population-based genetic testing for ovarian cancer risk and to establish why some HCPs are hesitant to offer testing to all adult female patients. If ovarian cancer risk assessment using genetic testing and non-genetic information including epidemiological information is rolled out on a population basis, training will be needed for HCPs in primary care to enable them to provide appropriate support to women at each stage of the process.

Weighing the Social and Ethical Considerations of Maternal-Fetal Surgery.

PubMed

Antiel, Ryan M; Flake, Alan W; Collura, Christopher A; Johnson, Mark P; Rintoul, Natalie E; Lantos, John D; Curlin, Farr A; Tilburt, Jon C; Brown, Stephen D; Feudtner, Chris

2017-12-01

The ethics of maternal-fetal surgery involves weighing the importance of potential benefits, risks, and other consequences involving the pregnant woman, fetus, and other family members. We assessed clinicians' ratings of the importance of 9 considerations relevant to maternal-fetal surgery. This study was a discrete choice experiment contained within a 2015 national mail-based survey of 1200 neonatologists, pediatric surgeons, and maternal-fetal medicine physicians, with latent class analysis subsequently used to identify groups of physicians with similar ratings. Of 1176 eligible participants, 660 (56%) completed the discrete choice experiment. The highest-ranked consideration was of neonatal benefits, which was followed by consideration of the risk of maternal complications. By using latent class analysis, we identified 4 attitudinal groups with similar patterns of prioritization: "fetocentric" ( n = 232), risk-sensitive ( n = 197), maternal autonomy ( n = 167), and family impact and social support ( n = 64). Neonatologists were more likely to be in the fetocentric group, whereas surgeons were more likely to be in the risk-sensitive group, and maternal-fetal medicine physicians made up the largest percentage of the family impact and social support group. Physicians vary in how they weigh the importance of social and ethical considerations regarding maternal-fetal surgery. Understanding these differences may help prevent or mitigate disagreements or tensions that may arise in the management of these patients. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

[The implementation of strategy of medicinal support in multi-type hospital].

PubMed

Ludupova, E Yu

2016-01-01

The article presents brief review of implementation of strategy of medicinal support of population of the Russian Federation and experience of application of at the level of regional hospital. The necessity and importance of implementation into practice of hospitals of methodology of pharmaco-economical management of medicinal care using modern technologies of XYZ-, ABC and VEN-analysis is demonstrated. The stages of development and implementation of process of medicinal support of multifield hospital applying principles of system of quality management (processing and systemic approaches, risk management) on the basis of standards ISO 9001 are described. The significance of monitoring of results ofprocess of medicinal support of the basis of implementation of priority target programs (prevention of venous thrombo-embolic complications, system od control of anti-bacterial therapy) are demonstrated in relation to multi-field hospital using technique of ATC/DDD-analysis for evaluating indices of effectiveness and efficiency.

Violence Victimization, Social Support, and Papanicolaou Smear Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study from Adolescence to Young Adulthood.

PubMed

Hsieh, Hsing-Fang; Heinze, Justin E; Lang, Ian; Mistry, Ritesh; Buu, Anne; Zimmerman, Marc A

2017-12-01

African American youth are among those at greatest risk for experiencing violence victimization. Notably, the mortality rate of cervical cancer for African American women is also twice that of white women. To date, we know of no literature using longitudinal data to examine how violence victimization relates to Papanicolaou (Pap) smear results or cervical cancer in this population. Our study examines how violence victimization during adolescence (age 15 to 18) influences psychological distress, perceived social support, heavy substance abuse, and sexual risk behaviors during emerging adulthood (age 20 to 23), and subsequent Pap smear outcomes during young adulthood (age 29 to 32). This study is based on 12 waves of data collected in a longitudinal study of 360 African American women from mid-adolescence (ninth grade, mean age = 14.8 years) to young adulthood (mean age = 32.0 years). We used structural equation modeling analysis to examine the hypothesized model. Violence victimization during adolescence had a direct effect on decreased social support, increased psychological distress, and increased heavy cigarette use during emerging adulthood. Better social support was also associated with fewer sexual partners during emerging adulthood and lower odds of abnormal Pap smear results during young adulthood. The effect of violence victimization on abnormal Pap smear was mediated by social support. Our results show that violence victimization during adolescence has long-term negative effects through multiple pathways that persist into adulthood. Our findings also suggest that social support may help to compensate against other risk factors. Interventions designed to address the perceived support may help victims cope with their experience.

Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George A. Beitel

2004-02-01

In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could providemore » a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.« less

Women Prisoners' Mental Health: Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resilience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Margaret E.; Hesselbrock, Michie N.

2001-01-01

Studies 49 incarcerated women to examine the complex relationship among women's criminal history, victimization, relational supports, personal strengths and their mental health. A cluster analysis produced four typologies shaping recommendations for assessment and treatment. Findings suggest that women with the greatest mental health needs have…

Calculation of the Actual Cost of Engine Maintenance

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-03-01

Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) helps analysts store, retrieve, and analyze data; build cost models; analyze risk; time phase budgets; and...Tools ( ACEIT ).” n. pag. http://www.aceit.com/ 21 February 2003. • USAMC Logistics Support Activity (LOGSA). “Cost Analysis Strategy Assessment

AUTOMOUSE: AN IMPROVEMENT TO THE MOUSE COMPUTERIZED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS SYSTEM OPERATIONAL MANUAL.

EPA Science Inventory

Under a mandate of national environmental laws, the agency strives to formulate and implement actions leading to a compatible balance between human activities and the ability of natural systems to support and nurture life. The Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is responsible ...

Acoustic detection of Melolonthine larvae in Australian sugarcane

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Decision support systems have been developed for risk analysis and control of root-feeding white grub pests in Queensland sugarcane, based partly on manual inspection of cane soil samples. Acoustic technology was considered as a potential alternative to this laborious procedure. Field surveys were...

Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Lewis, Keith P; Mumma, Matthew A; Ellington, E Hance; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Pouliot, Darren; Murray, Dennis L

2016-03-01

Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence may be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater influence on the predation risk of neonates during population declines, when females are already under nutritional stress triggered by food limitation. We examined the presence of phase-dependent climate-predator (PDCP) interactions on neonatal ungulate survival by comparing spatial and temporal fluctuations in climatic conditions, cause-specific mortality and per capita resource limitation. We determined cause-specific fates of 1384 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 10 herds in Newfoundland, spanning more than 30 years during periods of numerical increase and decline, while exposed to predation from black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans). We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis for competing risks, fit as a function of weather metrics, to assess pre- and post-partum climatic influences on survival on herds in population increase and decline phases. We used cumulative incidence functions to compare temporal changes in risk from predators. Our results support our main hypothesis; when caribou populations increased, weather conditions preceding calving were the main determinants of cause-specific mortality, but when populations declined, weather conditions during calving also influenced predator-driven mortality. Cause-specific analysis showed that weather conditions can differentially affect predation risk between black bears and coyotes with specific variables increasing the risk from one species and decreasing the risk from the other. For caribou, nutritional stress appears to increase predation risk on neonates, an interaction which is exacerbated by susceptibility to climatic events. These findings support the PDCP interactions framework, where maternal body condition influences susceptibility to climate-related events and, subsequently, risk from predation. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Root cause analysis to support infection control in healthcare premises.

PubMed

Venier, A-G

2015-04-01

Infection control teams (ICTs) seek to prevent healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs). They undertake surveillance and prevention, promote safety and quality of care, and evaluate and manage risk. Root cause analysis (RCA) can support this work but is not widely used by ICTs. This paper describes how ICTs can use RCA to enhance their day-to-day work. Many different tools and methods exist for RCA. Its primary aim is to identify the factors that have led to HCAI, but RCA can also be used for near-misses. A team effort and multidisciplinary work are usually required. Published accounts and personal experience in the field indicate that an ICT that correctly uses RCA implements more effective prevention measures, improves practice and collaborative working, enhances teamwork, and reduces the risk of HCAI. RCA should be promoted among ICTs because it adds value to their work and helps to develop a hospital culture that anticipates and pre-empts problems. Copyright © 2014 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Staff experiences and perceptions of working with in-patients who are suicidal: qualitative analysis

PubMed Central

Awenat, Yvonne; Peters, Sarah; Shaw-Nunez, Emma; Gooding, Patricia; Pratt, Daniel; Haddock, Gillian

2017-01-01

Background Suicidal behaviour is frequent in psychiatric in-patients and much staff time and resources are devoted to assessing and managing suicide risk. However, little is known about staff experiences of working with in-patients who are suicidal. Aims To investigate staff experiences of working with in-patients who are suicidal. Method Qualitative study guided by thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews with mental health staff with experience of psychiatric in-patient care. Results Twenty staff participated. All had encountered in-patient suicide deaths or attempts. Three key themes were identified: (a) experiences of suicidality, (b) conceptualising suicidality and (c) talking about suicide. Conclusions Suicidal behaviour in psychiatric wards has a large impact on staff feelings, practice and behaviour. Staff felt inadequately equipped to deal with such behaviours, with detrimental consequences for patients and themselves. Organisational support is lacking. Training and support should extend beyond risk assessment to improving staff skills in developing therapeutic interactions with in-patients who are suicidal. PMID:28642259

Determinants of suicidal ideation in gynecological cancer patients.

PubMed

Tang, G X; Yan, P P; Yan, C L; Fu, B; Zhu, S J; Zhou, L Q; Huang, X; Wang, Y; Lei, J

2016-01-01

Gynecological cancer survivors are at increased risk of psychological problems including suicide risk. Suicidal ideation, which was thought to be precursor to suicide attempts, has not been well studied. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, and determinants of suicidal ideation for women with gynecological cancer, and then to assess the effect of coping style and social support on suicidal ideation. Patients with cervical, ovarian and endometrial cancers seen at Hunan Provincial Tumor Hospital from September 2012 to June 2013 were consecutively recruited and were asked to complete the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, Suicidal Ideation of Self-rating Scale, Medical Coping Modes Questionnaire and Social Support Rating Scale. Path analysis was used to examine the relationship among coping style, social support, depression symptoms and suicidal ideation. A total of 579 (579/623, 93.0%) gynecological cancer patients were enrolled in this study and completed all investigations between September 2012 and June 2013. Among them, 105 (18.1%) patients reported suicidal ideation, with the highest rate in patients with ovarian cancer (30.16%). Suicidal ideation was associated with depression symptoms, care providers, chemotherapy history and acceptance-resignation. Path analysis showed that the acceptance-resignation affected suicidal ideation directly as well as mediated by social support and depression symptoms, while confrontation and avoidance affected suicidal ideation entirely through social support and depression symptoms. Suicidal ideation is high among patients with gynecological cancer, especially among ovarian cancer patients. Coping strategies such as confrontation and avoidance, and social support may be helpful for preventing suicidal ideation among them. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Safety leadership and systems thinking: application and evaluation of a Risk Management Framework in the mining industry.

PubMed

Donovan, Sarah-Louise; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Horberry, Tim

2017-10-01

Safety leadership is an important factor in supporting safety in high-risk industries. This article contends that applying systems-thinking methods to examine safety leadership can support improved learning from incidents. A case study analysis was undertaken of a large-scale mining landslide incident in which no injuries or fatalities were incurred. A multi-method approach was adopted, in which the Critical Decision Method, Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework and Accimap method were applied to examine the safety leadership decisions and actions which enabled the safe outcome. The approach enabled Rasmussen's predictions regarding safety and performance to be examined in the safety leadership context, with findings demonstrating the distribution of safety leadership across leader and system levels, and the presence of vertical integration as key to supporting the successful safety outcome. In doing so, the findings also demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to examine and learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. The implications, including future research directions, are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper presents a case study analysis, in which systems-thinking methods are applied to the examination of safety leadership decisions and actions during a large-scale mining landslide incident. The findings establish safety leadership as a systems phenomenon, and furthermore, demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. Implications, including future research directions, are discussed.

A Conceptual Framework for Decision-making Support in Uncertainty- and Risk-based Diagnosis of Rare Clinical Cases by Specialist Physicians.

PubMed

Santos, Adriano A; Moura, J Antão B; de Araújo, Joseana Macêdo Fechine Régis

2015-01-01

Mitigating uncertainty and risks faced by specialist physicians in analysis of rare clinical cases is something desired by anyone who needs health services. The number of clinical cases never seen by these experts, with little documentation, may introduce errors in decision-making. Such errors negatively affect well-being of patients, increase procedure costs, rework, health insurance premiums, and impair the reputation of specialists and medical systems involved. In this context, IT and Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) play a fundamental role, supporting decision-making process, making it more efficient and effective, reducing a number of avoidable medical errors and enhancing quality of treatment given to patients. An investigation has been initiated to look into characteristics and solution requirements of this problem, model it, propose a general solution in terms of a conceptual risk-based, automated framework to support rare-case medical diagnostics and validate it by means of case studies. A preliminary validation study of the proposed framework has been carried out by interviews conducted with experts who are practicing professionals, academics, and researchers in health care. This paper summarizes the investigation and its positive results. These results motivate continuation of research towards development of the conceptual framework and of a software tool that implements the proposed model.

Correlates of emotional congruence with children in sexual offenders against children: a test of theoretical models in an incarcerated sample.

PubMed

McPhail, Ian V; Hermann, Chantal A; Fernandez, Yolanda M

2014-02-01

Emotional congruence with children is a psychological construct theoretically involved in the etiology and maintenance of sexual offending against children. Research conducted to date has not examined the relationship between emotional congruence with children and other psychological meaningful risk factors for sexual offending against children. The current study derived potential correlates of emotional congruence with children from the published literature and proposed three models of emotional congruence with children that contain relatively unique sets of correlates: the blockage, sexual deviance, and psychological immaturity models. Using Area under the Curve analysis, we assessed the relationship between emotional congruence with children and offense characteristics, victim demographics, and psychologically meaningful risk factors in a sample of incarcerated sexual offenders against children (n=221). The sexual deviance model received the most support: emotional congruence with children was significantly associated with deviant sexual interests, sexual self-regulation problems, and cognition that condones and supports child molestation. The blockage model received partial support, and the immaturity model received the least support. Based on the results, we propose a set of further predictions regarding the relationships between emotional congruence with children and other psychologically meaningful risk factors to be examined in future research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cyber Incidents Involving Control Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert J. Turk

2005-10-01

The Analysis Function of the US-CERT Control Systems Security Center (CSSC) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has prepared this report to document cyber security incidents for use by the CSSC. The description and analysis of incidents reported herein support three CSSC tasks: establishing a business case; increasing security awareness and private and corporate participation related to enhanced cyber security of control systems; and providing informational material to support model development and prioritize activities for CSSC. The stated mission of CSSC is to reduce vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber attack on control systems. As stated in the Incident Managementmore » Tool Requirements (August 2005) ''Vulnerability reduction is promoted by risk analysis that tracks actual risk, emphasizes high risk, determines risk reduction as a function of countermeasures, tracks increase of risk due to external influence, and measures success of the vulnerability reduction program''. Process control and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, with their reliance on proprietary networks and hardware, have long been considered immune to the network attacks that have wreaked so much havoc on corporate information systems. New research indicates this confidence is misplaced--the move to open standards such as Ethernet, Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol, and Web technologies is allowing hackers to take advantage of the control industry's unawareness. Much of the available information about cyber incidents represents a characterization as opposed to an analysis of events. The lack of good analyses reflects an overall weakness in reporting requirements as well as the fact that to date there have been very few serious cyber attacks on control systems. Most companies prefer not to share cyber attack incident data because of potential financial repercussions. Uniform reporting requirements will do much to make this information available to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and others who require it. This report summarizes the rise in frequency of cyber attacks, describes the perpetrators, and identifies the means of attack. This type of analysis, when used in conjunction with vulnerability analyses, can be used to support a proactive approach to prevent cyber attacks. CSSC will use this document to evolve a standardized approach to incident reporting and analysis. This document will be updated as needed to record additional event analyses and insights regarding incident reporting. This report represents 120 cyber security incidents documented in a number of sources, including: the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT) Industrial Security Incident Database, the 2003 CSI/FBI Computer Crime and Security Survey, the KEMA, Inc., Database, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Energy Incident Database, the INL Cyber Incident Database, and other open-source data. The National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) database was also interrogated but, interestingly, failed to yield any cyber attack incidents. The results of this evaluation indicate that historical evidence provides insight into control system related incidents or failures; however, that the limited available information provides little support to future risk estimates. The documented case history shows that activity has increased significantly since 1988. The majority of incidents come from the Internet by way of opportunistic viruses, Trojans, and worms, but a surprisingly large number are directed acts of sabotage. A substantial number of confirmed, unconfirmed, and potential events that directly or potentially impact control systems worldwide are also identified. Twelve selected cyber incidents are presented at the end of this report as examples of the documented case studies (see Appendix B).« less

A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

PubMed Central

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-01

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

Defining the challenges of the Modern Analytical Laboratory (CPSA USA 2014): the risks and reality of personalized healthcare.

PubMed

Weng, Naidong; Needham, Shane; Lee, Mike

2015-01-01

The 17th Annual Symposium on Clinical and Pharmaceutical Solutions through Analysis (CPSA) 29 September-2 October 2014, was held at the Sheraton Bucks County Hotel, Langhorne, PA, USA. The CPSA USA 2014 brought the various analytical fields defining the challenges of the modern analytical laboratory. Ongoing discussions focused on the future application of bioanalysis and other disciplines to support investigational new drugs (INDs) and new drug application (NDA) submissions, clinical diagnostics and pathology laboratory personnel that support patient sample analysis, and the clinical researchers that provide insights into new biomarkers within the context of the modern laboratory and personalized medicine.

Endotoxin exposure and lung cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the published literature on agriculture and cotton textile workers.

PubMed

Lenters, Virissa; Basinas, Ioannis; Beane-Freeman, Laura; Boffetta, Paolo; Checkoway, Harvey; Coggon, David; Portengen, Lützen; Sim, Malcolm; Wouters, Inge M; Heederik, Dick; Vermeulen, Roel

2010-04-01

To examine the association between exposure to endotoxins and lung cancer risk by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies of workers in the cotton textile and agricultural industries; industries known for high exposure levels of endotoxins. Risk estimates were extracted from studies published before 2009 that met predefined quality criteria, including 8 cohort, 1 case-cohort, and 2 case-control studies of cotton textile industry workers, and 15 cohort and 2 case-control studies of agricultural workers. Summary risk estimates were calculated using random effects meta-analyses. Potential sources of heterogeneity were explored through subgroup analyses. The summary risk of lung cancer was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.90) for textile workers and 0.62 (0.52-0.75) for agricultural workers. The relative risk of lung cancer was below 1.0 for most subgroups defined according to sex, study design, outcome, smoking adjustment, and geographic area. Two studies provided quantitative estimates of endotoxin exposure and both studies tended to support a dose-dependent protective effect of endotoxins on lung cancer risk. Despite several limitations, this meta-analysis based on high-quality studies adds weight to the hypothesis that occupational exposure to endotoxin in cotton textile production and agriculture is protective against lung cancer.

The clinical importance of white matter hyperintensities on brain magnetic resonance imaging: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Debette, Stéphanie; Markus, H S

2010-07-26

To review the evidence for an association of white matter hyperintensities with risk of stroke, cognitive decline, dementia, and death. Systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed from 1966 to 23 November 2009. Prospective longitudinal studies that used magnetic resonance imaging and assessed the impact of white matter hyperintensities on risk of incident stroke, cognitive decline, dementia, and death, and, for the meta-analysis, studies that provided risk estimates for a categorical measure of white matter hyperintensities, assessing the impact of these lesions on risk of stroke, dementia, and death. Population studied, duration of follow-up, method used to measure white matter hyperintensities, definition of the outcome, and measure of the association of white matter hyperintensities with the outcome. 46 longitudinal studies evaluated the association of white matter hyperintensities with risk of stroke (n=12), cognitive decline (n=19), dementia (n=17), and death (n=10). 22 studies could be included in a meta-analysis (nine of stroke, nine of dementia, eight of death). White matter hyperintensities were associated with an increased risk of stroke (hazard ratio 3.3, 95% confidence interval 2.6 to 4.4), dementia (1.9, 1.3 to 2.8), and death (2.0, 1.6 to 2.7). An association of white matter hyperintensities with a faster decline in global cognitive performance, executive function, and processing speed was also suggested. White matter hyperintensities predict an increased risk of stroke, dementia, and death. Therefore white matter hyperintensities indicate an increased risk of cerebrovascular events when identified as part of diagnostic investigations, and support their use as an intermediate marker in a research setting. Their discovery should prompt detailed screening for risk factors of stroke and dementia.

Can Religious Beliefs be a Protective Factor for Suicidal Behavior? A Decision Tree Analysis in a Mid-Sized City in Iran, 2013.

PubMed

Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Zolala, Farzaneh; Nakhaee, Nouzar; Jalali, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Akbari, Maryam

2017-04-01

This study aimed to assess using tree-based models the impact of different dimensions of religion and other risk factors on suicide attempts in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hundred patients who attempted suicide and 300 age- and sex-matched patient attendants with other types of disease who referred to Kerman Afzalipour Hospital were recruited for this study following a convenience sampling. Religiosity was assessed by the Duke University Religion Index. A tree-based model was constructed using the Gini Index as the homogeneity criterion. A complementary discrimination analysis was also applied. Variables contributing to the construction of the tree were stressful life events, mental disorder, family support, and religious belief. Strong religious belief was a protective factor for those with a low number of stressful life events and those with a high mental disorder score; 72 % of those who formed these two groups had not attempted suicide. Moreover, 63 % of those with a high number of stressful life events, strong family support, strong problem-solving skills, and a low mental disorder score were less likely to attempt suicide. The significance of four other variables, GHQ, problem-coping skills, friend support, and neuroticism, was revealed in the discrimination analysis. Religious beliefs seem to be an independent factor that can predict risk for suicidal behavior. Based on the decision tree, religious beliefs among people with a high number of stressful life events might not be a dissuading factor. Such subjects need more family support and problem-solving skills.

Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.

2010-01-01

The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

Design of risk communication strategies based on risk perception among farmers exposed to pesticides in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.

PubMed

Peres, Frederico; Rodrigues, Karla Meneses; da Silva Peixoto Belo, Mariana Soares; Moreira, Josino Costa; Claudio, Luz

2013-01-01

This study aims to assess pesticide exposure risk perception among farmers from three rural areas of Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 66 adults and participatory workshops with 27 teenagers and analyzed through content analysis techniques. Systematized results were discussed at local meetings, and two risk communication initiatives were devised. Study results demonstrated the use of defensive strategies by men and a diminished risk perception among women. Teenagers relied on parents to develop their own work practices. These findings supported the importance of cultural and social determinants of farmers' understandings of risk and of the relevance of different pesticide exposure pathways. Risk perceptions and work practices are strongly influenced by local cultural patterns and, therefore, must be taken into account when developing effective intervention strategies, including risk communication initiatives. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exploring heterogeneous market hypothesis using realized volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, Wen Cheong; Isa, Zaidi; Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari

2013-04-01

This study investigates the heterogeneous market hypothesis using high frequency data. The cascaded heterogeneous trading activities with different time durations are modelled by the heterogeneous autoregressive framework. The empirical study indicated the presence of long memory behaviour and predictability elements in the financial time series which supported heterogeneous market hypothesis. Besides the common sum-of-square intraday realized volatility, we also advocated two power variation realized volatilities in forecast evaluation and risk measurement in order to overcome the possible abrupt jumps during the credit crisis. Finally, the empirical results are used in determining the market risk using the value-at-risk approach. The findings of this study have implications for informationally market efficiency analysis, portfolio strategies and risk managements.

An Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) to Increase Safety and Security Levels in Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubair, M.; Rahman, Khalil Ur; Hassan, Mehmood Ul

2013-12-01

The main idea of this research is to develop an Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) based on Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA). The article highlights the essential features and functions of ORMS. The basic models and modules such as, Reliability Data Update Model (RDUM), running time update, redundant system unavailability update, Engineered Safety Features (ESF) unavailability update and general system update have been described in this study. ORMS not only provides quantitative analysis but also highlights qualitative aspects of risk measures. ORMS is capable of automatically updating the online risk models and reliability parameters of equipment. ORMS can support in the decision making process of operators and managers in Nuclear Power Plants.

Probabilistic risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations: robust design and support for decision making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oladyshkin, Sergey; Class, Holger; Helmig, Rainer; Nowak, Wolfgang

2010-05-01

CO2 storage in geological formations is currently being discussed intensively as a technology for mitigating CO2 emissions. However, any large-scale application requires a thorough analysis of the potential risks. Current numerical simulation models are too expensive for probabilistic risk analysis and for stochastic approaches based on brute-force repeated simulation. Even single deterministic simulations may require parallel high-performance computing. The multiphase flow processes involved are too non-linear for quasi-linear error propagation and other simplified stochastic tools. As an alternative approach, we propose a massive stochastic model reduction based on the probabilistic collocation method. The model response is projected onto a orthogonal basis of higher-order polynomials to approximate dependence on uncertain parameters (porosity, permeability etc.) and design parameters (injection rate, depth etc.). This allows for a non-linear propagation of model uncertainty affecting the predicted risk, ensures fast computation and provides a powerful tool for combining design variables and uncertain variables into one approach based on an integrative response surface. Thus, the design task of finding optimal injection regimes explicitly includes uncertainty, which leads to robust designs of the non-linear system that minimize failure probability and provide valuable support for risk-informed management decisions. We validate our proposed stochastic approach by Monte Carlo simulation using a common 3D benchmark problem (Class et al. Computational Geosciences 13, 2009). A reasonable compromise between computational efforts and precision was reached already with second-order polynomials. In our case study, the proposed approach yields a significant computational speedup by a factor of 100 compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that, due to the non-linearity of the flow and transport processes during CO2 injection, including uncertainty in the analysis leads to a systematic and significant shift of predicted leakage rates towards higher values compared with deterministic simulations, affecting both risk estimates and the design of injection scenarios. This implies that, neglecting uncertainty can be a strong simplification for modeling CO2 injection, and the consequences can be stronger than when neglecting several physical phenomena (e.g. phase transition, convective mixing, capillary forces etc.). The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation (DFG) for financial support of the project within the Cluster of Excellence in Simulation Technology (EXC 310/1) at the University of Stuttgart. Keywords: polynomial chaos; CO2 storage; multiphase flow; porous media; risk assessment; uncertainty; integrative response surfaces

Perceived support at work after critical incidents and its relation to psychological distress: a survey among prehospital providers.

PubMed

Gouweloos-Trines, Juul; Tyler, Mark P; Giummarra, Melita J; Kassam-Adams, Nancy; Landolt, Markus A; Kleber, Rolf J; Alisic, Eva

2017-12-01

Prehospital providers are at increased risk for psychological distress. Support at work after critical incidents is believed to be important for providers, but current guidelines are in need of more scientific evidence. This study aimed to investigate: (1) to what extent prehospital providers experience support at work; (2) whether support at work is directly associated with lower distress and (3) whether availability of a formal peer support system is related to lower distress via perceived colleague support. This cross-sectional study surveyed prehospital providers from eight western industrialised countries between June and November 2014. A supportive work environment was operationalised as perceived management and colleague support (Job Content Questionnaire), availability of a formal peer support system and having enough time to recover after critical incidents. The outcome variable was psychological distress (Kessler 10). We conducted multiple linear regression analyses and mediation analysis. Of the 813 respondents, more than half (56.2%) were at moderate to high risk of psychological distress. Participants did not consistently report support at work (eg, 39.4% were not aware of formal peer support). Perceived management support (b (unstandardised regression coefficient)=-0.01, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.00), having enough time to recover after critical incidents (b=-0.07, 95% CI -0.09 to -0.04) and perceived colleague support (b=-0.01, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.00) were related to lower distress. Availability of formal peer support was indirectly related to lower distress via increased perceived colleague support (β=-0.04, 95% CI -0.02 to -0.01). Prehospital providers at risk of psychological distress may benefit from support from colleagues and management and from having time to recover after critical incidents. Formal peer support may assist providers by increasing their sense of support from colleagues. These findings need to be verified in a longitudinal design. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Relationships between parental alcohol abuse and social support, peer substance abuse risk and social support, and substance abuse risk among South Korean adolescents.

PubMed

Park, Sookyung; Kim, Haeryun; Kim, Haesung

2009-01-01

This study examined the roles played by parental alcohol abuse and social support, peer substance abuse risk and social support, and substance abuse risk among adolescents in South Korea. Participants were adolescents between the ages of 15 and 22 years (mean, 18), residing in Seoul city and in surrounding Kyung-gi Province. Of 259 participants, 41.3% scored 2 or more on the POSIT scale, which suggested they met the problematic criteria for substance abuse risk. Logistic regression results suggested that the influence of social support on substance abuse risk among adolescents depended on the source of support--parents or peers. These findings need to be considered in the development of intervention programs for adolescents at risk for substance abuse.

Racial discrimination, social support, and sexual HIV risk among Black heterosexual men.

PubMed

Bowleg, Lisa; Burkholder, Gary J; Massie, Jenné S; Wahome, Rahab; Teti, Michelle; Malebranche, David J; Tschann, Jeanne M

2013-01-01

Numerous studies document the adverse impact of racial discrimination on African Americans' health outcomes, but few have focused on HIV risk. We examined the relationship between racial discrimination and sexual risk in a sample of 526 Black heterosexual men and tested the hypothesis that social support would moderate this relationship. Participants in the predominantly low-income urban sample ranged in age from 18 to 45. High social support had a buffering impact on the relationship between racial discrimination and sexual risk. Among men reporting high racial discrimination, those with more social support reported less sexual risk than men with low social support. Men who reported high racial discrimination and low social support reported more sexual risk than men in any of the other groups. The study highlights social support as an important but understudied protective factor that may reduce sexual risk for Black heterosexual men who report high levels of racial discrimination.

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

MTHFR gene polymorphism and risk of myeloid leukemia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dong, Song; Liu, Yueling; Chen, Jieping

2014-09-01

An increasing body of evidence has shown that the amino acid changes at position 1298 might eliminate methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) enzyme activity, leading to insufficient folic acid and subsequent human chromosome breakage. Epidemiological studies have linked MTHFR single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1801131 to myeloid leukemia risk, with considerable discrepancy in their results. We therefore were prompted to clarify this issue by use of a meta-analysis. The search terms were used to cover the possible reports in the MEDLINE, Web of Knowledge, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases. Odds ratios were estimated to assess the association of SNP rs1801131 with myeloid leukemia risk. Statistical heterogeneity was detected using the Q-statistic and I (2) metric. Subgroup analysis was performed by ethnicity, histological subtype, and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). This meta-analysis of eight publications with a total of 1,114 cases and 3,227 controls revealed no global association. Nor did the subgroup analysis according to histological subtype and HWE show any significant associations. However, Asian individuals who harbored the CC genotype were found to have 1.66-fold higher risk of myeloid leukemia (odds ratio, 1.66; 95 % confidence interval, 1.10 to 2.49; P h = 0.342; I (2) = 0.114). Our meta-analysis has presented evidence supporting a possible association between the CC genotype of MTHFR SNP rs1801131 and myeloid leukemia in Asian populations.

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valentine, Mark; Boyer, Roger; Cross, Bob; Hamlin, Teri; Roelant, Henk; Stewart, Mike; Bigler, Mark; Winter, Scott; Reistle, Bruce; Heydorn,Dick

2009-01-01

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts as well as performing major probabilistic assessments used to support flight rationale and help establish program requirements. During 2008, the Analysis Group performed more than 70 assessments. Although all these assessments were important, some were instrumental in the decisionmaking processes for the Shuttle and Constellation Programs. Two of the more significant tasks were the Space Transportation System (STS)-122 Low Level Cutoff PRA for the SSP and the Orion Pad Abort One (PA-1) PRA for the CxP. These two activities, along with the numerous other tasks the Analysis Group performed in 2008, are summarized in this report. This report also highlights several ongoing and upcoming efforts to provide crucial statistical and probabilistic assessments, such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PRA for the Hubble Space Telescope service mission and the first fully integrated PRAs for the CxP's Lunar Sortie and ISS missions.

An empirical test of a mediation model of the impact of the traditional male gender role on suicidal behavior in men.

PubMed

Houle, Janie; Mishara, Brian L; Chagnon, François

2008-04-01

Men die by suicide three to four times more often than women in Western countries. The adverse impact of the traditional male gender role as well as men's reluctance to seek help are possible explanations of this gender gap, but these hypotheses have not been well documented empirically. This study compares two groups of men who experienced comparable severely stressful life events during the preceding 12 months: 40 men admitted to hospital emergency following suicide attempts, and 40 men with no history of suicide attempts. Structured interviews were conducted to measure adherence to the traditional male gender role, help seeking behaviour, social support, suicide acceptability and mental health. ANOVAS indicated that attempters are more likely to adhere to the traditional masculine gender role and regression analysis revealed that this relationship persists even when the presence of mental disorders is statistically controlled. Sequential regression analysis support the mediation model and show that the effects of the traditional male gender role on suicidal behavior are mediated through protective and risk factors for suicide, namely mental state, help seeking and social support. The traditional male gender role appears to increase the risk of suicidal behavior in men by undermining their mental state and by inhibiting the protective factors of help seeking and social support. This study underscores the importance of encouraging men to seek help.

Heart Rate Variability Dynamics for the Prognosis of Cardiovascular Risk

PubMed Central

Ramirez-Villegas, Juan F.; Lam-Espinosa, Eric; Ramirez-Moreno, David F.; Calvo-Echeverry, Paulo C.; Agredo-Rodriguez, Wilfredo

2011-01-01

Statistical, spectral, multi-resolution and non-linear methods were applied to heart rate variability (HRV) series linked with classification schemes for the prognosis of cardiovascular risk. A total of 90 HRV records were analyzed: 45 from healthy subjects and 45 from cardiovascular risk patients. A total of 52 features from all the analysis methods were evaluated using standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test). The results of the statistical procedure provided input to multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks, radial basis function (RBF) neural networks and support vector machines (SVM) for data classification. These schemes showed high performances with both training and test sets and many combinations of features (with a maximum accuracy of 96.67%). Additionally, there was a strong consideration for breathing frequency as a relevant feature in the HRV analysis. PMID:21386966

Gender identity disorders and multiple sclerosis risk: A national record-linkage study.

PubMed

Pakpoor, Julia; Wotton, Clare J; Schmierer, Klaus; Giovannoni, Gavin; Goldacre, Michael J

2016-11-01

An altered balance of gonadal hormones in males with gender identity disorders (GIDs) may increase multiple sclerosis (MS) risk both inherently and secondary to treatment in undergoing male-to-female conversion. We investigated any association between GIDs and MS through analysis of record-linked hospital statistics. Analysis of English Hospital Episode Statistics, 1999-2012. The adjusted rate ratio (RR) of MS following GIDs in males was 6.63 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.81-17.01, p = 0.0002). The RR of MS following GIDs in females was 1.44 (95% CI = 0.47-3.37, p = 0.58). We report a strong association between GIDs and MS in male-to-females, supporting a potential role for low testosterone and/or feminising hormones on MS risk in males. © The Author(s), 2016.

Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

2015-12-01

This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

Findings from an Organizational Network Analysis to Support Local Public Health Management

PubMed Central

Caldwell, Michael; Rockoff, Maxine L.; Gebbie, Kristine; Carley, Kathleen M.; Bakken, Suzanne

2008-01-01

We assessed the feasibility of using organizational network analysis in a local public health organization. The research setting was an urban/suburban county health department with 156 employees. The goal of the research was to study communication and information flow in the department and to assess the technique for public health management. Network data were derived from survey questionnaires. Computational analysis was performed with the Organizational Risk Analyzer. Analysis revealed centralized communication, limited interdependencies, potential knowledge loss through retirement, and possible informational silos. The findings suggested opportunities for more cross program coordination but also suggested the presences of potentially efficient communication paths and potentially beneficial social connectedness. Managers found the findings useful to support decision making. Public health organizations must be effective in an increasingly complex environment. Network analysis can help build public health capacity for complex system management. PMID:18481183

A clustering analysis of lipoprotein diameters in the metabolic syndrome

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The presence of smaller low-density lipoproteins (LDL) has been associated with atherosclerosis risk, and the insulin resistance (IR) underlying the metabolic syndrome (MetS). In addition, some research has supported the association of very low-, low- and high-density lipoprotein (VLDL HDL) particle...

Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

2017-09-01

To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does Organizational and Coworker Support Moderate Diabetes Risk and Job Stress Among Employees?

PubMed

Wolff, Marilyn B; Gay, Jennifer L; Wilson, Mark G; DeJoy, David M; Vandenberg, Robert J

2018-05-01

Examine the moderating role of perceived organizational and coworker support on the relationship between job stress and type 2 diabetes risk among employees. A cross-sectional survey was administered to employees at the workplace. One national retail organization. Baseline data were obtained from 1595 employees in 21 retail stores. Self-reported organizational and coworker support to encourage and fulfill job responsibilities and job stress. Diabetes risk was calculated using age, gender, race/ethnicity, blood pressure, physical activity, weight status, and self-reported diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Multilevel multiple regression was conducted to test the interaction effect of support on the association between job stress and diabetes risk. Mean age was 37.95 years (±12.03) and body mass index was 26.72 (±4.95). Three percent of participants reported diagnosed diabetes. Organizational support was positively associated with coworker support. Both were negatively associated with job stress. Organizational support, but not coworker support, moderated the relationship of job stress with diabetes risk. Participants with greater perceived organizational support had lower diabetes risk scores compared to those with lower perceived organizational support. Organizational support may be a key factor for workplaces to reduce stress and diabetes risk. Further testing of organizations' supportive role on employee health may be helpful in developing future workplace programs.

Using the SCERTS model assessment tool to identify music therapy goals for clients with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Walworth, Darcy D; Register, Dena; Engel, Judy Nguyen

2009-01-01

The purposes of this paper were to identify and compare goals and objectives addressed by music therapists that are contained in the SCERTS Model, for use with children at risk or diagnosed with a communication impartment including Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). A video analysis of music therapists working with clients at risk or diagnosed with ASD (N = 33) was conducted to: (a) identify the areas of the SCERTS assessment model that music therapists are currently addressing within their sessions for clients with ASD, and (b) compare the frequency of SCERTS domains and goals addressed by music therapists within sessions. Results of the analysis revealed that all three domains of social communication, emotional regulation, and transactional support were addressed within music therapy sessions. Within each domain both broad goals were all addressed including joint attention and symbol use for social communication, self-regulation and mutual regulation for emotional regulation, and interpersonal support and learning support for transactional support. Overall, music therapists addressed transactional support goals and subgoals more often than social communication and emotional regulation goals and subgoals. The highest frequency goal area addressed was interpersonal support (73.96%) and the lowest goal area addressed was joint attention (35.96%). For the social partner and language partner language stages, 58 of the 320 possible subgoals were addressed with 90% frequency or higher, while 13 of the same subgoals were never addressed. The SCERTS Model is designed for use by a multidisciplinary team of professionals and family members throughout a client's treatment and contains an ongoing assessment tool with resulting goals and objectives. This analysis indicates that many SCERTS goals and objectives can be addressed in music therapy interventions. Additionally, goals and subgoals not previously recognized in music therapy treatment can be generated by the use of the SCERTS Model.

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 2: System Safety Concepts, Guidelines, and Implementation Examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Feather, Martin; Rutledge, Peter; Sen, Dev; Youngblood, Robert

2015-01-01

This is the second of two volumes that collectively comprise the NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1 (NASASP-210-580) was prepared for the purpose of presenting the overall framework for System Safety and for providing the general concepts needed to implement the framework. Volume 2 provides guidance for implementing these concepts as an integral part of systems engineering and risk management. This guidance addresses the following functional areas: 1.The development of objectives that collectively define adequate safety for a system, and the safety requirements derived from these objectives that are levied on the system. 2.The conduct of system safety activities, performed to meet the safety requirements, with specific emphasis on the conduct of integrated safety analysis (ISA) as a fundamental means by which systems engineering and risk management decisions are risk-informed. 3.The development of a risk-informed safety case (RISC) at major milestone reviews to argue that the systems safety objectives are satisfied (and therefore that the system is adequately safe). 4.The evaluation of the RISC (including supporting evidence) using a defined set of evaluation criteria, to assess the veracity of the claims made therein in order to support risk acceptance decisions.

Concerns and coping during cancer genetic risk assessment.

PubMed

Bennett, P; Phelps, C; Hilgart, J; Hood, K; Brain, K; Murray, A

2012-06-01

To gain an 'in-depth' understanding of patients' concerns and their related coping strategies during the genetic risk assessment process. Participants were the 'usual care' arm of a trial of a coping intervention targeted at men and women undergoing assessment of genetic risk for familial cancer. Participants completed questionnaires measuring the degree to which they experienced up to 11 concerns and which of 8 coping strategies they used to respond to each of them at entry into the programme and 1 month subsequently (before they received their risk information). A majority of participants were at least 'quite worried' about all the identified concerns, although the levels of concern fell over the waiting period. Participants used several strategies in response to their varying concerns - although a primary coping strategy for each concern was identifiable. The emotion-focused strategies of acceptance and positive appraisal were generally used in response to concerns they could not change, and seeking social support was used primarily to gain information, but not emotional support from their family. Cluster analysis identified three unique clusters of coping responses. Genetic risk assessment comprises a number of different stressors each of which is coped with using different strategies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Shift in Emphasis From Risk-Based to Age-Based Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Testing in the US Tends to Remove Injection Drug Use From Discourse on HCV.

PubMed

Jordan, Ashly E; Perlman, David C

2017-02-23

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is hyperendemic among people who inject drugs; nonsterile drug injection is the principle risk for HCV acquisition. Due to gaps in the HCV care continuum, there have been recommendations in the United States emphasizing age-rather than risk-based testing strategies. The central research focus of this project is to explore the meanings and implications of the shift in emphasis from risk-based to age-based HCV testing with regard to people who use drugs. Content analysis and critical discourse analysis, informed by eco-social theory, were used to examine relevant documents. Fifteen documents were assessed for eligibility; 6 documents comprised the final set reviewed. In content analysis, age-based testing was both mentioned more frequently and was supported more strongly than risk-based testing. Risk-based testing was frequently mentioned in terms minimizing its use and drug use was often mentioned only euphemistically. The reframed emphasis largely removed discussion of injection drug use from discussion of HCV risks. Shifting the emphasis of HCV testing from testing based on specific routes of transmission and risk to testing based on age removes injection drug use from HCV discourse. This has the potential to either facilitate HCV care for drug users or to further stigmatize and marginalize drug use and people who use drugs. The potential implications of this shift in testing emphasis for public health merit further investigation.

The positive effects of a peer-led intervention system for individuals with a risk of metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Sanee, Aree; Somrongthong, Ratana; Plianbangchang, Samlee

2017-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a major health risk in Thailand. Although it is reported that females have a higher rate of MetS than males, very few peer-led intervention studies have been conducted on specific groups, such as seamstresses, at risk of MetS. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of a peer-led intervention program on reducing MetS risk factors in individuals working in Thai Uniform Sewing Military Factories. A quasiexperimental program was introduced using a pre- and posttest design that was applied to female sewing factory workers selected for this research. All participants had at least one of the key MetS symptoms. The experimental group (N=50 participants) received 12 weekly peer-led individual support discussion sessions that included both dietary and physical activity (PA) advice and the control group (N=50 participants) followed their usual daily routines. The Student's t -test and the Pearson's chi-squared test were used to compare the differences of baseline data and analysis of variance was used for analysis of the data after intervention. The results showed that after 3 months of participation, when compared to the control group, the experimental group had significantly improved systolic blood pressure (BP) ( P =0.04), diastolic BP ( P <0.001), PA ( P =0.05), knowledge scores of MetS, perception of MetS and risk factors ( P <0.001), and stress assessment ( P =0.002). Waist circumference, body mass index, and Food Frequency Questionnaire score were not significantly different but still improved. Findings from this study suggest that a peer-led support program can be introduced as an effective means of improving the behaviors of mostly sedentary factory workers at risk of MetS caused by working habits that are detrimental to health.

Personal and workplace psychosocial risk factors for carpal tunnel syndrome: a pooled study cohort.

PubMed

Harris-Adamson, Carisa; Eisen, Ellen A; Dale, Ann Marie; Evanoff, Bradley; Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew S; Kapellusch, Jay M; Garg, Arun; Burt, Susan; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Gerr, Fred; Merlino, Linda; Rempel, David

2013-08-01

Between 2001 and 2010, six research groups conducted coordinated multiyear, prospective studies of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) incidence in US workers from various industries and collected detailed subject-level exposure information with follow-up symptom, physical examination, electrophysiological measures and job changes. This analysis of the pooled cohort examined the incidence of dominant-hand CTS in relation to demographic characteristics and estimated associations with occupational psychosocial factors and years worked, adjusting for confounding by personal risk factors. 3515 participants, without baseline CTS, were followed-up to 7 years. Case criteria included symptoms and an electrodiagnostic study consistent with CTS. Adjusted HRs were estimated in Cox proportional hazard models. Workplace biomechanical factors were collected but not evaluated in this analysis. Women were at elevated risk for CTS (HR=1.30; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.72), and the incidence of CTS increased linearly with both age and body mass index (BMI) over most of the observed range. High job strain increased risk (HR=1.86; 95% CI 1.11 to 3.14), and social support was protective (HR=0.54; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.95). There was an inverse relationship with years worked among recent hires with the highest incidence in the first 3.5 years of work (HR=3.08; 95% CI 1.55 to 6.12). Personal factors associated with an increased risk of developing CTS were BMI, age and being a woman. Workplace risk factors were high job strain, while social support was protective. The inverse relationship between CTS incidence and years worked among recent hires suggests the presence of a healthy worker survivor effect in the cohort.

Sensemaking, Stakeholder Discord, and Long-Term Risk Communication at a U.S. Superfund Site

PubMed Central

Hoover, Anna Goodman

2018-01-01

Introduction Risk communication can help reduce exposures to environmental contaminants, mitigate negative health outcomes, and inform community-based decisions about hazardous waste sites. While communication best practices have long guided such efforts, little research has examined unintended consequences arising from such guidelines. As rhetoric informs stakeholder sensemaking, the language used in and reinforced by these guidelines can challenge relationships and exacerbate stakeholder tensions. Objectives This study evaluates risk communication at a U.S. Superfund site to identify unintended consequences arising from current risk communication practices. Methods This qualitative case study crystallizes data spanning 6 years from three sources: 1) local newspaper coverage of site-related topics; 2) focus-group transcripts from a multi-year project designed to support future visioning of site use; and 3) published blog entries authored by a local environmental activist. Constant comparative analysis provides the study’s analytic foundation, with qualitative data analysis software QSR NVivo 8 supporting a three-step process: 1) provisional coding to identify broad topic categories within datasets, 2) coding occurrences of sensemaking constructs and emergent intra-dataset patterns, and 3) grouping related codes across datasets to examine the relationships among them. Results Existing risk communication practices at this Superfund site contribute to a dichotomous conceptualization of multiple and diverse stakeholders as members of one of only two categories: the government or the public. This conceptualization minimizes perceptions of capacity, encourages public commitment to stances aligned with a preferred group, and contributes to negative expectations that can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Conclusion Findings indicate a need to re-examine and adapt risk communication guidelines to encourage more pluralistic understanding of the stakeholder landscape. PMID:28282297

Personal and workplace psychosocial risk factors for carpal tunnel syndrome: a pooled study cohort

PubMed Central

Harris-Adamson, Carisa; Eisen, Ellen A; Dale, Ann Marie; Evanoff, Bradley; Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew S; Kapellusch, Jay M; Garg, Arun; Burt, Susan; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Gerr, Fred; Merlino, Linda; Rempel, David

2015-01-01

Background Between 2001 and 2010, six research groups conducted coordinated multiyear, prospective studies of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) incidence in US workers from various industries and collected detailed subject-level exposure information with follow-up symptom, physical examination, electrophysiological measures and job changes. Objective This analysis of the pooled cohort examined the incidence of dominant-hand CTS in relation to demographic characteristics and estimated associations with occupational psychosocial factors and years worked, adjusting for confounding by personal risk factors. Methods 3515 participants, without baseline CTS, were followed-up to 7 years. Case criteria included symptoms and an electrodiagnostic study consistent with CTS. Adjusted HRs were estimated in Cox proportional hazard models. Workplace biomechanical factors were collected but not evaluated in this analysis. Results Women were at elevated risk for CTS (HR=1.30; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.72), and the incidence of CTS increased linearly with both age and body mass index (BMI) over most of the observed range. High job strain increased risk (HR=1.86; 95% CI 1.11 to 3.14), and social support was protective (HR=0.54; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.95). There was an inverse relationship with years worked among recent hires with the highest incidence in the first 3.5 years of work (HR=3.08; 95% CI 1.55 to 6.12). Conclusions Personal factors associated with an increased risk of developing CTS were BMI, age and being a woman. Workplace risk factors were high job strain, while social support was protective. The inverse relationship between CTS incidence and years worked among recent hires suggests the presence of a healthy worker survivor effect in the cohort. PMID:23645610

Sexual Partnership Types as Determinant of HIV Risk in South African MSM: An Event-Level Cluster Analysis

PubMed Central

Sandfort, Theo; Yi, Huso; Knox, Justin; Reddy, Vasu

2012-01-01

While individual determinants of HIV risk among MSM have been widely studied, there is limited understanding of how relational characteristics determine sexual risk. Based on data collected among 300 South African men who have sex with men (MSM) and using cluster analysis, this study developed a typology of four partnership types: the “Race-Economic Similar,” “Age-Race-Economic Discordant,” “Non-regular Neighbourhood,” and “Familiar” partnership types. Support for the meaningfulness of these types was found through associations of these partnership types with participant characteristics and characteristics of the last anal sex event. Furthermore, in a multivariate analysis, only partnership type independently predicted whether the last anal sex event was unprotected. Findings of the study illustrate the importance of taking into account the relational context in understanding unprotected sexual practices and present ways to target intervention efforts as well as identify relationship specific determinants of unprotected sex. PMID:22956229

Association between Parkinson’s Disease and Cigarette Smoking, Rural Living, Well-Water Consumption, Farming and Pesticide Use: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Breckenridge, Charles B.; Berry, Colin; Chang, Ellen T.; Sielken, Robert L.; Mandel, Jack S.

2016-01-01

Objective Bradford Hill’s viewpoints were used to conduct a weight-of-the-evidence assessment of the association between Parkinson’s disease (PD) and rural living, farming and pesticide use. The results were compared with an assessment based upon meta-analysis. For comparison, we also evaluated the association between PD and cigarette smoking as a “positive control” because a strong inverse association has been described consistently in the literature. Methods PubMed was searched systematically to identify all published epidemiological studies that evaluated associations between Parkinson’s disease (PD) and cigarette smoking, rural living, well-water consumption, farming and the use of pesticides, herbicides, insecticides, fungicides or paraquat. Studies were categorized into two study quality groups (Tier 1 or Tier 2); data were abstracted and a forest plot of relative risks (RRs) was developed for each risk factor. In addition, when available, RRs were tabulated for more highly exposed individuals compared with the unexposed. Summary RRs for each risk factor were calculated by meta-analysis of Tier 1, Tier 2 and all studies combined, with sensitivity analyses stratified by other study characteristics. Indices of between-study heterogeneity and evidence of reporting bias were assessed. Bradford Hill’s viewpoints were used to determine if a causal relationship between PD and each risk factor was supported by the weight of the evidence. Findings There was a consistent inverse (negative) association between current cigarette smoking and PD risk. In contrast, associations between PD and rural living, well-water consumption, farming and the use of pesticides, herbicides, insecticides, fungicides or paraquat were less consistent when assessed quantitatively or qualitatively. Conclusion The weight of the evidence and meta-analysis support the conclusion that there is a causal relationship between PD risk and cigarette smoking, or some unknown factor correlated with cigarette smoking. There may be risk factors associated with rural living, farming, pesticide use or well-water consumption that are causally related to PD, but the studies to date have not identified such factors. To overcome the limitations of research in this area, future studies will have to better characterize the onset of PD and its relationship to rural living, farming and exposure to pesticides. PMID:27055126

The EP-3E vs. the BAMS UAS: An Operating and Support Cost Comparison

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Accountability Office HALE High Altitude Long Endurance ISR Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance JCC Joint Architecture...others are very complex high altitude long endurance (HALE) aircraft. However, most share the common need for satellite bandwidth. The DoD plan is...collection sites, and risks as they apply to the BAMS UAS. These factors were not adequately considered in the original O&S analysis . Once the analysis

76 FR 57033 - Draft Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-15

... Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System..., ``Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System...-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available...

The Study of “big data” to support internal business strategists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Mei

2018-01-01

How is big data different from previous data analysis systems? The primary purpose behind traditional small data analytics that all managers are more or less familiar with is to support internal business strategies. But big data also offers a promising new dimension: to discover new opportunities to offer customers high-value products and services. The study focus to introduce some strategists which big data support to. Business decisions using big data can also involve some areas for analytics. They include customer satisfaction, customer journeys, supply chains, risk management, competitive intelligence, pricing, discovery and experimentation or facilitating big data discovery.

Using Marijuana May Not Raise the Risk of Using Harder Drugs

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-02-01

Using Marijuana May Not Raise the Risk of Using Harder Drugs Marijuana is widely regarded as a "gateway" drug, that is, one whose use results in an...laws prohibiting the use or possession of marijuana . A recent analysis by RAND’s Drug Policy Research Center (DPRC) suggests that data typically used...to support a marijuana gateway effect can be explained as well by a different theory. The new research, by Andrew Morral, associate director of RAND

Front-line intraperitoneal versus intravenous chemotherapy in stage III-IV epithelial ovarian, tubal, and peritoneal cancer with minimal residual disease: a competing risk analysis.

PubMed

Chang, Yen-Hou; Li, Wai-Hou; Chang, Yi; Peng, Chia-Wen; Cheng, Ching-Hsuan; Chang, Wei-Pin; Chuang, Chi-Mu

2016-03-17

In the analysis of survival data for cancer patients, the problem of competing risks is often ignored. Competing risks have been recognized as a special case of time-to-event analysis. The conventional techniques for time-to-event analysis applied in the presence of competing risks often give biased or uninterpretable results. Using a prospectively collected administrative health care database in a single institution, we identified patients diagnosed with stage III or IV primary epithelial ovarian, tubal, and peritoneal cancers with minimal residual disease after primary cytoreductive surgery between 1995 and 2012. Here, we sought to evaluate whether intraperitoneal chemotherapy outperforms intravenous chemotherapy in the presence of competing risks. Unadjusted and multivariable subdistribution hazards models were applied to this database with two types of competing risks (cancer-specific mortality and other-cause mortality) coded to measure the relative effects of intraperitoneal chemotherapy. A total of 1263 patients were recruited as the initial cohort. After propensity score matching, 381 patients in each arm entered into final competing risk analysis. Cumulative incidence estimates for cancer-specific mortality were statistically significantly lower (p = 0.017, Gray test) in patients receiving intraperitoneal chemotherapy (5-year estimates, 34.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 29.5-39.6%, and 10-year estimates, 60.7%; 95% CI, 52.2-68.0%) versus intravenous chemotherapy (5-year estimates, 41.3%; 95% CI, 36.2-46.3%, and 10-year estimates, 67.5%, 95% CI, 61.6-72.7%). In subdistribution hazards analysis, for cancer-specific mortality, intraperitoneal chemotherapy outperforms intravenous chemotherapy (Subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.96) after correcting other covariates. In conclusion, results from this comparative effectiveness study provide supportive evidence for previous published randomized trials that intraperitoneal chemotherapy outperforms intravenous chemotherapy even eliminating the confounding of competing risks. We suggest that implementation of competing risk analysis should be highly considered for the investigation of cancer patients who have medium to long-term follow-up period.

Risk factors of child physical abuse by parents with mixed anxiety-depressive disorder or posttraumatic stress disorder

PubMed Central

Kalebić Jakupčević, Katija; Ajduković, Marina

2011-01-01

Aim To determine the risk that parents with mixed anxiety and depressive disorder (MADD) or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) will physically abuse their child and evaluate the specific contribution of mental health, perceived social support, experience of childhood abuse, and attributes of family relations to the risk of child physical abuse. Method The study conducted in 2007 included men (n = 25) and women (n = 25) with a diagnosis of MADD, men with a diagnosis of PTSD (n = 30), and a control sample of parents from the general population (n = 100, 45 men and 55 women) with children of elementary school age. General Information Questionnaire, Child Abuse Experience Inventory, Perceived Social Support Scale, and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory (CAPI) Clinical Abuse Scale were used. Results Total results on the Clinical Abuse Scale of the CAPI indicated higher risk of child physical abuse in parents with MADD (273.3 ± 13.6) and in fathers with PTSD (333.21 ± 17.98) than in parents from the general population (79.6 ± 9.9) (F = 110.40, P < 0.001; tPTSD,MADD = 13.73, P < 0.001). A hierarchical regression analysis showed that the greatest predictors in the multivariate model were mental health difficulties, poorer economic status, poor social support, and physical and verbal aggression in partner conflicts. Conclusion Parents with MADD and PTSD exhibit high risk of child abuse. Since parents with PTSD have significantly higher risk of child abuse than parents with MADD, further large-sample research is needed to clarify the relationship between PTSD intensity and the risk of child abuse. PMID:21328717

Mendelian randomisation analysis strongly implicates adiposity with risk of developing colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Jarvis, David; Mitchell, Jonathan S; Law, Philip J; Palin, Kimmo; Tuupanen, Sari; Gylfe, Alexandra; Hänninen, Ulrika A; Cajuso, Tatiana; Tanskanen, Tomas; Kondelin, Johanna; Kaasinen, Eevi; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Kaprio, Jaakko; Eriksson, Johan G; Rissanen, Harri; Knekt, Paul; Pukkala, Eero; Jousilahti, Pekka; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Palotie, Aarno; Järvinen, Heikki; Renkonen-Sinisalo, Laura; Lepistö, Anna; Böhm, Jan; Meklin, Jukka-Pekka; Al-Tassan, Nada A; Palles, Claire; Martin, Lynn; Barclay, Ella; Farrington, Susan M; Timofeeva, Maria N; Meyer, Brian F; Wakil, Salma M; Campbell, Harry; Smith, Christopher G; Idziaszczyk, Shelley; Maughan, Timothy S; Kaplan, Richard; Kerr, Rachel; Kerr, David; Buchanan, Daniel D; Win, Aung K; Hopper, John L; Jenkins, Mark A; Lindor, Noralane M; Newcomb, Polly A; Gallinger, Steve; Conti, David; Schumacher, Fred; Casey, Graham; Taipale, Jussi; Aaltonen, Lauri A; Cheadle, Jeremy P; Dunlop, Malcolm G; Tomlinson, Ian P; Houlston, Richard S

2016-07-12

Observational studies have associated adiposity with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, such studies do not establish a causal relationship. To minimise bias from confounding we performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to examine the relationship between adiposity and CRC. We used SNPs associated with adult body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), childhood obesity and birth weight as instrumental variables in a MR analysis of 9254 CRC cases and 18 386 controls. In the MR analysis, the odds ratios (ORs) of CRC risk per unit increase in BMI, WHR and childhood obesity were 1.23 (95% CI: 1.02-1.49, P=0.033), 1.59 (95% CI: 1.08-2.34, P=0.019) and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.13, P=0.018), respectively. There was no evidence for association between birth weight and CRC (OR=1.22, 95% CI: 0.89-1.67, P=0.22). Combining these data with a concurrent MR-based analysis for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (totalling to 18 190 cases, 27 617 controls) provided increased support, ORs for BMI and WHR were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.10-1.44, P=7.7 × 10(-4)) and 1.40 (95% CI: 1.14-1.72, P=1.2 × 10(-3)), respectively. These data provide further evidence for a strong causal relationship between adiposity and the risk of developing CRC highlighting the urgent need for prevention and treatment of adiposity.

Does beer, wine or liquor consumption correlate with the risk of renal cell carcinoma? A dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Xu, Xin; Zhu, Yi; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping

2015-01-01

Despite plenty of evidence supports an inverse association between alcohol drinking and risk of renal cell carcinoma (RCC), sex-specific and beverage-specific dose-response relationships have not been well established. We examined this association by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies. Studies were identified by comprehensively searching PubMed and EMBASE databases through February 21, 2015. Categorical and dose-response meta-analyses were conducted to identify the effects of alcohol on RCC. A total of eight publications (including seven cohort studies and one pooled analysis of 12 cohort studies) were eligible for this meta-analysis. Dose-response analysis showed that each 5 g/day increment of alcohol intake corresponded to a 5% decrease in risk of RCC for males and 9% for females. Alcohol intakes from wine, beer, and liquor were each associated with a reduced risk of RCC. When these associations were examined separately by gender, statistically significant inverse associations were restricted to alcohol from wine among females (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.73–0.91) and to alcohol from beer and from liquor among males (RR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.83–0.91 and RR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.92–0.99, respectively). In conclusion, there exist gender-specific and beverage-specific differences in the association between alcohol intake and RCC risk. PMID:25965820

Benefits and risks of shared services in healthcare.

PubMed

Kennewell, Suzanne; Baker, Laura

2016-05-16

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the experiences of staff in a large, public health service involved in transitioning support services to a shared services model. It aims to understand their perceptions of the benefits and risks arising from this change. Design/methodology/approach - Thematic analysis of qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with both service provider and customer agency staff was used to identify, analyze and report patterns of benefits and risks within data. Findings - Staff expressed the need for relevant subject-matter-experts to work within customer agencies to facilitate effective communication between the customer agency and shared services provider, reflecting observations found in out-sourcing literature. Research limitations/implications - Results point to significant challenges continuing to occur for shared services in healthcare. Risks identified suggest a more intimate relationship between clinical and support services than previously discussed. Originality/value - Previous discussion of the shared services model has not considered the skills, knowledge and ability required by staff in the customer agency. This research indicates that in the absence of such consideration, the concepts of the shared services model are weakened.

Prenatal folic acid and risk of asthma in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Crider, Krista S; Cordero, Amy M; Qi, Yan Ping; Mulinare, Joseph; Dowling, Nicole F; Berry, Robert J

2016-01-01

Background Childhood asthma has become a critical public health problem because of its high morbidity and increasing prevalence. The impact of nutrition and other exposures during pregnancy on long-term health and development of children has been of increasing interest. Objective We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association of folate and folic acid intake during pregnancy and risk of asthma and other allergic outcomes in children. Design We performed a systematic search of 8 electronic databases for articles that examined the association between prenatal folate or folic acid exposure and risk of asthma and other allergic outcomes (eg, allergy, eczema, and atopic dermatitis) in childhood. We performed a meta-analysis by using a random-effects model to derive a summary risk estimate of studies with similar exposure timing, exposure assessment, and outcomes. Results Our meta-analysis provided no evidence of an association between maternal folic acid supplement use (compared with no use) in the prepregnancy period through the first trimester and asthma in childhood (summary risk estimate: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.78, 1.30). Because of substantial heterogeneity in exposures and outcomes, it was not possible to generate summary measures for other folate indicators (eg, blood folate concentrations) and asthma or allergy-related outcomes; however, the preponderance of primary risk estimates was not elevated. Conclusions Our findings do not support an association between periconceptional folic acid supplementation and increased risk of asthma in children. However, because of the limited number and types of studies in the literature, additional research is needed. PMID:24004895

The assessment of human health impact caused by industrial and civil activities in the Pace Valley of Messina.

PubMed

Morra, P; Lisi, R; Spadoni, G; Maschio, G

2009-06-01

The impact of industrial and civil activities on an agricultural and residential area is presented in a detailed and global analysis. The examined area is the Pace river valley situated in the northern zone of Messina (Italy). The sources of pollution present in the area are: a Municipal Solid Waste Incinerator operating since 1979, a disused urban solid waste landfill which was used for 30 years, an urban solid waste treatment facility with heavy vehicles traffic, and two open pits for the production of bitumen. Large quantities of toxic, carcinogenic substances and criteria pollutants are released into the environment and represent potential hazards to human health. The analysis is performed using the EHHRA-GIS tool which employs an integrated, multimedia, multi-exposure pathways and multi-receptor risk assessment model that is able to manage all the steps which constitute the human health risk analysis in a georeferenced structure. The transport of pollutants in different environmental media is assessed applying models (AERMOD, GMS, CALINE) that take into account the particular three-dimensional morphology of the terrain. The results obtained, combined with a probabilistic risk assessment and a sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters, are a comprehensive assessment of the total human health risk in the area. Finally human health risks caused by toxic and carcinogenic substances are compared with acceptable legal limits in order to support environmental managers' decisions.

Circulating Selenium and Prostate Cancer Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

PubMed

Yarmolinsky, James; Bonilla, Carolina; Haycock, Philip C; Langdon, Ryan J Q; Lotta, Luca A; Langenberg, Claudia; Relton, Caroline L; Lewis, Sarah J; Evans, David M; Davey Smith, George; Martin, Richard M

2018-05-17

In the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT), selenium supplementation (causing a median 114 μg/L increase in circulating selenium) did not lower overall prostate cancer risk, but increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analysis uses genetic variants to proxy modifiable risk factors and can strengthen causal inference in observational studies. We constructed a genetic instrument comprising 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly (P < 5 × 10-8) associated with circulating selenium in genome-wide association studies. In a Mendelian randomization analysis of 72 729 men in the PRACTICAL Consortium (44 825 case subjects, 27 904 control subjects), 114 μg/L higher genetically elevated circulating selenium was not associated with prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 1.13). In concordance with findings from SELECT, selenium was weakly associated with advanced (including high-grade) prostate cancer (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.49) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 0.97 to 1.43; in a type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study meta-analysis with up to 49 266 case subjects and 249 906 control subjects). Our Mendelian randomization analyses do not support a role for selenium supplementation in prostate cancer prevention and suggest that supplementation could have adverse effects on risks of advanced prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes.

Enhancing Supportive-Educative Nursing Systems to Reduce Risk of Post-Breast Cancer Lymphedema.

PubMed

Armer, Jane M; Shook, Robin P; Schneider, Melanie K; Brooks, Constance W; Peterson, Julie; Stewart, Bob R

2009-10-01

This study describes the use of data regarding self-care agency to enhance a supportive-educative nursing system for breast cancer survivors to reduce the risk of developing lymphedema post surgery. Impetus for this study came from the analysis of participant feedback from a parent study (Lance Armstrong Foundation pilot study) that sought to plan an educational program for nurses that will improve their supportive-educative nursing system when working with breast cancer survivors. The goal is to enable these women to reduce the risk of lymphedema post surgery. The parent study examined a bundled behavioral-educative intervention, which included standard lymphedema education coupled with Modified Manual Lymph Drainage (MMLD) to reduce the risk of developing lymphedema in newly-diagnosed breast cancer survivors. Based upon the feedback received from the parent study, the research team recognized that many of the participants were not fully following the recommendations of the intervention protocol. In order for nurses to help patients develop self-care agency (SCA) (Orem, 2001) to engage in actions that addressed the self-care requisites associated with post-breast cancer surgery, these nurses needed to refine their intervention skills. Prior to the development of a program for the nurses, the research team conducted a study to explore the state of power related to SCA of the study participants. The information obtained from this was then used in the development of an educational program for bundled intervention. Both motivational interviewing (Miller & Rollnick, 2002) and solution-focused therapy (Berg & DeJong, 1996) were incorporated into the educational program for the research nurse team to strengthen and improve supportive-educative nursing systems. Supportive-educative systems of care that integrate self-care deficit nursing theory, motivational interviewing, and solution-focused therapy can assist patients to develop and sustain self-care agency.

On the meaning and use of the risk appetite concept.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2013-03-01

The risk appetite concept has been given considerable attention recently in enterprise risk management contexts. A number of definitions exist, most with a link to risk acceptability, but also values and goals. The usefulness of the concept is, however, disputed; some authors argue that we can in fact do better without it. In this article, we provide a thorough discussion of what the risk appetite concept is actually trying to express and how it best can be used in the relevant decision making. The main purposes of the article are (i) to argue that the risk appetite concept, suitably interpreted, has a role to play in risk management, (ii) to show that the risk appetite concept is well supported by some types of risk perspectives and not by others, and (iii) to show how the risk appetite concept is linked to other related concepts, such as risk seeking and risk acceptability. The risk perspectives studied range from expected value and probability based definitions of risk to views on risk, that are founded on uncertainties. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Differential Child Maltreatment Risk Across Deployment Periods of US Army Soldiers.

PubMed

Taylor, Christine M; Ross, Michelle E; Wood, Joanne N; Griffis, Heather M; Harb, Gerlinde C; Mi, Lanyu; Song, Lihai; Strane, Douglas; Lynch, Kevin G; Rubin, David M

2016-01-01

We described the risk for maltreatment among toddlers of US Army soldiers over different deployment cycles to develop a systematic response within the US Army to provide families appropriate supports. We conducted a person-time analysis of substantiated maltreatment reports and medical diagnoses among children of 112,325 deployed US Army soldiers between 2001 and 2007. Risk of maltreatment was elevated after deployment for children of soldiers deployed once but not for children of soldiers deployed twice. During the 6 months after deployment, children of soldiers deployed once had 4.43 substantiated maltreatment reports and 4.96 medical diagnoses per 10,000 child-months. The highest maltreatment rate among children of soldiers deployed twice occurred during the second deployment for substantiated maltreatment (4.83 episodes per 10,000 child-months) and before the first deployment for medical diagnoses of maltreatment (3.78 episodes per 10,000 child-months). We confirmed an elevated risk for child maltreatment during deployment but also found a previously unidentified high-risk period during the 6 months following deployment, indicating elevated stress within families of deployed and returning soldiers. These findings can inform efforts by the military to initiate and standardize support and preparation to families during periods of elevated risk.

Differential Child Maltreatment Risk Across Deployment Periods of US Army Soldiers

PubMed Central

Ross, Michelle E.; Wood, Joanne N.; Griffis, Heather M.; Harb, Gerlinde C.; Mi, Lanyu; Song, Lihai; Strane, Douglas; Lynch, Kevin G.; Rubin, David M.

2016-01-01

Objectives. We described the risk for maltreatment among toddlers of US Army soldiers over different deployment cycles to develop a systematic response within the US Army to provide families appropriate supports. Methods. We conducted a person-time analysis of substantiated maltreatment reports and medical diagnoses among children of 112 325 deployed US Army soldiers between 2001 and 2007. Results. Risk of maltreatment was elevated after deployment for children of soldiers deployed once but not for children of soldiers deployed twice. During the 6 months after deployment, children of soldiers deployed once had 4.43 substantiated maltreatment reports and 4.96 medical diagnoses per 10 000 child-months. The highest maltreatment rate among children of soldiers deployed twice occurred during the second deployment for substantiated maltreatment (4.83 episodes per 10 000 child-months) and before the first deployment for medical diagnoses of maltreatment (3.78 episodes per 10 000 child-months). Conclusions. We confirmed an elevated risk for child maltreatment during deployment but also found a previously unidentified high-risk period during the 6 months following deployment, indicating elevated stress within families of deployed and returning soldiers. These findings can inform efforts by the military to initiate and standardize support and preparation to families during periods of elevated risk. PMID:26562128

Commentary on "The association between physical activity and renal cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis." Behrens G, Leitzmann MF, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Regensburg University Medical Center, Regensburg, Germany. Br J Cancer 2013; 108(4):798-811. [Epub 2013 Feb 14]. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2013.37.

PubMed

Boorjian, Stephen

2014-08-01

Physical activity may decrease renal cancer risk by reducing obesity, blood pressure, insulin resistance, and lipid peroxidation. Despite plausible biologic mechanisms linking increased physical activity to decreased risk for renal cancer, few epidemiologic studies have been able to report a clear inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer, and no meta-analysis is available on the topic. We searched the literature using PubMed and Web of Knowledge to identify published non-ecologic epidemiologic studies quantifying the relationship between physical activity and renal cancer risk in individuals without a cancer history. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, including information from 19 studies based on a total of 2,327,322 subjects and 10,756 cases. The methodologic quality of the studies was examined using a comprehensive scoring system. Comparing high vs low levels of physical activity, we observed an inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (summary relative risk (RR) from random-effects meta-analysis=0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.79-0.97). Summarising risk estimates from high-quality studies strengthened the inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (RR=0.78; 95% CI=0.66-0.92). Effect modification by adiposity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, smoking, gender, or geographic region was not observed. Our comprehensive meta-analysis provides strong support for an inverse relation of physical activity to renal cancer risk. Future high-quality studies are required to discern which specific types, intensities, frequencies, and durations of physical activity are needed for renal cancer risk reduction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) Tool to Support Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

McConnell, Emma R.; Bell, Shannon M.; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J.; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D.

2014-01-01

Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment. PMID:25531884

Causes of nursing home placement for older people with dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Toot, Sandeep; Swinson, Tom; Devine, Mike; Challis, David; Orrell, Martin

2017-02-01

Up to half of people with dementia in high income countries live in nursing homes and more than two-thirds of care home residents have dementia. Fewer than half of these residents report good quality of life and most older people are anxious about the prospect of moving into a nursing home. Robust evidence is needed as to the causes of admission to nursing homes, particularly where these risk factors are modifiable. We conducted a systematic literature search to identify controlled comparison studies in which the primary outcome was admission to nursing home of older adults with dementia. Identified studies were assessed for validity and 26 (17 cohort and 9 case-control) were included. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted, including meta-analysis of 15 studies. Poorer cognition and behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) were consistently associated with an increased risk of nursing home admission and most of our meta-analyses demonstrated impairments in activities of daily living as a significant risk. The effects of community support services were unclear, with both high and low levels of service use leading to nursing home placement. There was an association between caregiver burden and risk of institutionalization, but findings with regard to caregiver depression varied, as did physical health associations, with some studies showing an increased risk of nursing home placement following hip fracture, reduced mobility, and multiple comorbidities. We recommend focusing on cognitive enhancement strategies, assessment and management of BPSD, and carer education and support to delay nursing home placement.

Regional risk assessment approaches to land planning for industrial polluted areas in China: the Hulunbeier region case study.

PubMed

Li, Daiqing; Zhang, Chen; Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Zhang, Haibo; Lv, Shihai; Marcomini, Antonio

2014-04-01

The rapid industrial development and urbanization processes that occurred in China over the past 30years has increased dramatically the consumption of natural resources and raw materials, thus exacerbating the human pressure on environmental ecosystems. In result, large scale environmental pollution of soil, natural waters and urban air were recorded. The development of effective industrial planning to support regional sustainable economy development has become an issue of serious concern for local authorities which need to select safe sites for new industrial settlements (i.e. industrial plants) according to assessment approaches considering cumulative impacts, synergistic pollution effects and risks of accidental releases. In order to support decision makers in the development of efficient and effective regional land-use plans encompassing the identification of suitable areas for new industrial settlements and areas in need of intervention measures, this study provides a spatial regional risk assessment methodology which integrates relative risk assessment (RRA) and socio-economic assessment (SEA) and makes use of spatial analysis (GIS) methodologies and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The proposed methodology was applied to the Chinese region of Hulunbeier which is located in eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, adjacent to the Republic of Mongolia. The application results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the identification of the most hazardous and risky industrial settlements, the most vulnerable regional receptors and the regional districts which resulted to be the most relevant for intervention measures since they are characterized by high regional risk and excellent socio-economic development conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oil taxation and risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodriguez-Padilla, V.

1992-01-01

The relationship between the taxation system and the division of risks between the host country governments and the international companies is discussed. The analysis underscores the effect of taxation on the geological and political risks. These two cases are evaluated in two West-African oil-producing countries. It emerges from this that too heavy and regressive taxes greatly increase the risks supported by the two partners. The progressive character of the taxation is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the reduction of public and private risks. A taxation burden well-balanced among small and large deposits is the best way tomore » reduce the risk due to taxation. The oil-producing countries of this region had made great advances in developing neutral taxation systems but in most cases they must progress further. 15 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less

Application of correspondence analysis in the assessment of mine tailings dam breakage risk in the Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Salgueiro, Ana Rita; Pereira, Henrique Garcia; Rico, Maria-Teresa; Benito, Gerado; Díez-Herreo, Andrés

2008-02-01

A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations.