Geomagnetic South Atlantic Anomaly and global sea level rise: A direct connection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Santis, A.; Qamili, E.; Spada, G.; Gasperini, P.

2012-01-01

We highlight the existence of an intriguing and to date unreported relationship between the surface area of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of the geomagnetic field and the current trend in global sea level rise. These two geophysical variables have been growing coherently during the last three centuries, thus strongly suggesting a causal relationship supported by some statistical tests. The monotonic increase of the SAA surface area since 1600 may have been associated with an increased inflow of radiation energy through the inner Van Allen belt with a consequent warming of the Earth's atmosphere and finally global sea level rise. An alternative suggestive and original explanation is also offered, in which pressure changes at the core-mantle boundary cause surface deformations and relative sea level variations. Although we cannot establish a clear connection between SAA dynamics and global warming, the strong correlation between the former and global sea level supports the idea that global warming may be at least partly controlled by deep Earth processes triggering geomagnetic phenomena, such as the South Atlantic Anomaly, on a century time scale.

Potential effects of sea-level rise on the depth to saturated sediments of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; McCobb, Timothy D.; Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.

2016-05-25

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Association to Preserve Cape Cod, the Cape Cod Commission, and the Massachusetts Environmental Trust, began an evaluation of the potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitudes and depths to water on central and western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Increases in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures arising, in part, from the release of greenhouse gases likely will result in higher sea levels globally. Increasing water table altitudes in shallow, unconfined coastal aquifer systems could adversely affect infrastructure—roads, utilities, basements, and septic systems—particularly in low-lying urbanized areas. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod are the largest and most populous of the six flow lenses that comprise the region’s aquifer system, the Cape Cod glacial aquifer. The potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitude and depths to water were evaluated by use of numerical models of the region. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses have a number of large surface water drainages that receive a substantial amount of groundwater discharge, 47 and 29 percent of the total, respectively. The median increase in the simulated water table altitude following a 6-foot sea-level rise across both flow lenses was 2.11 feet, or 35 percent when expressed as a percentage of the total sea-level rise. The response is nearly the same as the sea-level rise (6 feet) in some coastal areas and less than 0.1 foot near some large inland streams. Median water table responses differ substantially between the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses—at 29 and 49 percent, respectively—because larger surface water discharge on the Sagamore flow lens results in increased dampening of the water table response than in the Monomoy flow lens. Surface waters dampen water table altitude increases because streams are fixed-altitude boundaries that cause hydraulic gradients and streamflow to increase as sea-level rises, partially fixing the local water table altitude.The region has a generally thick vadose zone with a mean of about 38 feet; areas with depths to water of 5 feet or less, as estimated from light detection and ranging (lidar) data from 2011 and simulated water table altitudes, currently [2011] occur over about 24.9 square miles, or about 8.4 percent of the total land area of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, generally in low-lying coastal areas and inland near ponds and streams. Excluding potentially submerged areas, an additional 4.5, 9.8, and 15.9 square miles would have shallow depths to water (5 feet or less) for projected sea-level rises of 2, 4, and 6 feet above levels in 2011. The additional areas with shallow depths to water generally occur in the same areas as the areas with current [2011] depths to water of 5 feet or less: low-lying coastal areas and near inland surface water features. Additional areas with shallow depths to water for the largest sea-level rise prediction (6 feet) account for about 5.7 percent of the total land area, excluding areas likely to be inundated by seawater. The numerous surface water drainages will dampen the response of the water table to sea-level rise. This dampening, combined with the region’s thick vadose zone, likely will mitigate the potential for groundwater inundation in most areas. The potential does exist for groundwater inundation in some areas, but the effects of sea-level rise on depths to water and infrastructure likely will not be substantial on a regional level.

The RiSE climbing robot: body and leg design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, A.; Goldman, D. I.; Full, R. J.; Buehler, M.

2006-05-01

The RiSE robot is a biologically inspired, six legged climbing robot, designed for general mobility in scansorial (vertical walls, horizontal ledges, ground level) environments. It exhibits ground reaction forces that are similar to animal climbers and does not rely on suction, magnets or other surface-dependent specializations to achieve adhesion and shear force. We describe RiSE's body and leg design as well as its electromechanical, communications and computational infrastructure. We review design iterations that enable RiSE to climb 90° carpeted, cork covered and (a growing range of) stucco surfaces in the quasi-static regime.

Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert

2011-01-01

SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.

A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution.

PubMed

Kirwan, Matthew L; Murray, A Brad

2007-04-10

The evolution of tidal marsh platforms and interwoven channel networks cannot be addressed without treating the two-way interactions that link biological and physical processes. We have developed a 3D model of tidal marsh accretion and channel network development that couples physical sediment transport processes with vegetation biomass productivity. Tidal flow tends to cause erosion, whereas vegetation biomass, a function of bed surface depth below high tide, influences the rate of sediment deposition and slope-driven transport processes such as creek bank slumping. With a steady, moderate rise in sea level, the model builds a marsh platform and channel network with accretion rates everywhere equal to the rate of sea-level rise, meaning water depths and biological productivity remain temporally constant. An increase in the rate of sea-level rise, or a reduction in sediment supply, causes marsh-surface depths, biomass productivity, and deposition rates to increase while simultaneously causing the channel network to expand. Vegetation on the marsh platform can promote a metastable equilibrium where the platform maintains elevation relative to a rapidly rising sea level, although disturbance to vegetation could cause irreversible loss of marsh habitat.

Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

1980-01-01

The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

A comparison of root surface temperatures using different obturation heat sources.

PubMed

Lee, F S; Van Cura, J E; BeGole, E

1998-09-01

This study compared root surface temperatures produced during warm vertical obturation using the System B Heat Source (SB), the Touch 'n Heat device (TH), and a flame-heated carrier (FH). The root canals of 30 maxillary incisor, premolar, and mandibular incisor teeth were prepared; divided into three groups; and obturated using each heat source. A thermocouple placed 2 mm below the cementoenamel junction transferred the temperature rise on the external root surface to a digital thermometer. SB surface temperature rise was < 10 degrees C for all experimental teeth. TH temperature rise in maxillary incisors and premolars was < 10 degrees C; however, > 10 degrees C was observed for mandibular incisors. FH produced a > 10 degrees C surface temperature rise in all experimental teeth. The critical level of root surface heat required to produce irreversible bone damage is believed to be > 10 degrees C. The findings of this study suggest that warm vertical condensation with the SB should not damage supporting periradicular tissues. However, caution should be used with TH and FH on mandibular incisors.

Mass Balance Changes and Ice Dynamics of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Laser Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babonis, G. S.; Csatho, B.; Schenk, T.

2016-06-01

During the past few decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice at accelerating rates, caused by increasing surface temperature. The melting of the two big ice sheets has a big impact on global sea level rise. If the ice sheets would melt down entirely, the sea level would rise more than 60 m. Even a much smaller rise would cause dramatic damage along coastal regions. In this paper we report about a major upgrade of surface elevation changes derived from laser altimetry data, acquired by NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat) and airborne laser campaigns, such as Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS). For detecting changes in ice sheet elevations we have developed the Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC) method. It computes elevation changes of small surface patches by keeping the surface shape constant and considering the absolute values as surface elevations. We report about important upgrades of earlier results, for example the inclusion of local ice caps and the temporal extension from 1993 to 2014 for the Greenland Ice Sheet and for a comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness and mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheets.

Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

2017-12-01

As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on unconfined sloping island aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesnaux, R.

2016-04-01

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater oceanic island lenses are provided for the cases of both strip and circular islands. Solutions are proposed for directly calculating the change in the thickness of the lens, the changes in volume and the changes in travel time of fresh groundwater within island aquifers. The solutions apply for homogenous aquifers recharged by surface infiltration and discharged by a down-gradient, fixed-head boundary. They also take into account the inland shift of the ocean due to land surface inundation, this shift being determined by the coastal slope of inland aquifers. The solutions are given for two simple island geometries: circular islands and strip islands. Base case examples are presented to illustrate, on one hand, the amplitude of the change of the fresh groundwater lens thickness and the volume depletion of the lens in oceanic island with sea-level rise, and on the other hand, the shortening of time required for groundwater to discharge into the ocean. These consequences can now be quantified and may help decision-makers to anticipate the effects of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater availability in oceanic island aquifers.

Will fluctuations in salt marsh–mangrove dominance alter vulnerability of a subtropical wetland to sea‐level rise?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mckee, Karen L.; Vervaeke, William

2018-01-01

To avoid submergence during sea-level rise, coastal wetlands build soil surfaces vertically through accumulation of inorganic sediment and organic matter. At climatic boundaries where mangroves are expanding and replacing salt marsh, wetland capacity to respond to sea-level rise may change. To compare how well mangroves and salt marshes accommodate sea-level rise, we conducted a manipulative field experiment in a subtropical plant community in the subsiding Mississippi River Delta. Experimental plots were established in spatially equivalent positions along creek banks in monospecific stands of Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) or Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and in mixed stands containing both species. To examine the effect of disturbance on elevation dynamics, vegetation in half of the plots was subjected to freezing (mangrove) or wrack burial (salt marsh), which caused shoot mortality. Vertical soil development was monitored for 6 years with the surface elevation table-marker horizon system. Comparison of land movement with relative sea-level rise showed that this plant community was experiencing an elevation deficit (i.e., sea level was rising faster than the wetland was building vertically) and was relying on elevation capital (i.e., relative position in the tidal frame) to survive. Although Avicennia plots had more elevation capital, suggesting longer survival, than Spartina or mixed plots, vegetation type had no effect on rates of accretion, vertical movement in root and sub-root zones, or net elevation change. Thus, these salt marsh and mangrove assemblages were accreting sediment and building vertically at equivalent rates. Small-scale disturbance of the plant canopy also had no effect on elevation trajectories—contrary to work in peat-forming wetlands showing elevation responses to changes in plant productivity. The findings indicate that in this deltaic setting with strong physical influences controlling elevation (sediment accretion, subsidence), mangrove replacement of salt marsh, with or without disturbance, will not necessarily alter vulnerability to sea-level rise.

Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean

PubMed Central

Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.; Bingley, Richard M.

2014-01-01

The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. PMID:25157196

Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.

2012-12-01

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change "commitment" of a range of radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible if atmospheric CO2 is left to evolve freely or is artificially restored to pre-industrial levels. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate significant surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.0-0.6 °C for RCP4.5 and 0.0-1.2 °C for RCP8.5, and the additional sea level rise is 0.1-1.0 m for RCP4.5 and 0.4-2.6 m for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions results in constant or slightly decreasing surface air temperature in all EMICs. Thermosteric sea level rise continues after elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with additional sea level rise between 2300 and 3000 of 0.0-0.5 m for RCP4.5 and 0.2-2.4 m for RCP8.5. The largest warming and sea level rise commitment are simulated for the case with constant year-2300 CO2 emissions. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100-1000 years does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level rise exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2, and requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Results of the climate change commitment and reversibility simulations differ widely among EMICs, both in the physical and biogeochemical response. Particularly large differences are identified in the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to atmospheric CO2 and climate, highlighting the need for improved understanding and representation of land carbon cycle processes in Earth System models.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2005-12-01

Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous, distributed, and integrated surface-water and ground-water model. It can simulate one-dimensional canal/stream flow and two-dimensional overland and groundwater flow in arbitrarily shaped areas using a variable triangular mesh. The overland and groundwater flow components are fully coupled in the RSM for a more realistic representation of runoff generation.

Keep up or drown: adjustment of western Pacific coral reefs to sea-level rise in the 21st century

PubMed Central

van Woesik, R.; Golbuu, Y.; Roff, G.

2015-01-01

Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are ‘keeping up’ with contemporary sea-level rise. Measurements of 570 reef-flat Porites microatolls at 10 locations around Palau revealed recent vertical skeletal extension (78±13 mm) over the last 6–8 years, which is consistent with the timing of the recent increase in sea level. We modelled whether microatoll growth rates will potentially ‘keep up’ with predicted sea-level rise in the near future, based upon average growth, and assuming a decline in growth for every 1°C increase in temperature. We then compared these estimated extension rates with rates of sea-level rise under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model suggests that under low–mid RCP scenarios, reef-coral growth will keep up with sea-level rise, but if greenhouse gas concentrations exceed 670 ppm atmospheric CO2 levels and with +2.2°C sea-surface temperature by 2100 (RCP 6.0 W m−2), our predictions indicate that Porites microatolls will be unable to keep up with projected rates of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. PMID:26587277

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Secretary of the Navy Professor of Oceanography

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-18

of better predicting polar ice melting processes and the associated global rise in sea level. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Wind-drag, ocean surface roughness...Ross Sea with the goal of better predicting polar ice melting processes and the associated global rise in sea level. PUBLICATIONS Farrell, W. and W...Oceanography, LaJolla, CA; 12 May 2011 Attended: International Symposium on Interactions of Glaciers and Ice Sheets with the Ocean SIO, Scripps Institution

Rising sea level may cause decline of fringing coral reefs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Michael E.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2011-01-01

Coral reefs are major marine ecosystems and critical resources for marine diversity and fisheries. These ecosystems are widely recognized to be at risk from a number of stressors, and added to those in the past several decades is climate change due to anthropogenically driven increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Most threatening to most coral reefs are elevated sea surface temperatures and increased ocean acidity [e.g., Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007], but sea level rise, another consequence of climate change, is also likely to increase sedimentary processes that potentially interfere with photosynthesis, feeding, recruitment, and other key physiological processes (Figure 1). Anderson et al. [2010] argue compellingly that potential hazardous impacts to coastlines from 21st-century sea level rise are greatly underestimated, particularly because of the rapid rate of rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will rise in the coming century (1990–2090) by 2.2–4.4 millimeters per year, when projected with little contribution from melting ice [Meehl et al., 2007]. New studies indicate that rapid melting of land ice could substantially increase the rate of sea level rise [Grinsted et al., 2009; Milne et al., 2009].

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

PubMed Central

Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A.; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel E.; Lane, Robert R.; McKee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai C.; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Greg D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William C.; Willis, Jonathan M.; Wilson, K. Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change. PMID:28902904

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel; Lane, Robert R.; Mckee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William; Willis, Jonathan M; Van Wilson, K.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Griffith, Kereen T; Larriviere, Jack C; Feher, Laura C; Cahoon, Donald R; Enwright, Nicholas M; Oster, David A; Tirpak, John M; Woodrey, Mark S; Collini, Renee C; Baustian, Joseph J; Breithaupt, Joshua L; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A; Donoghue, Joseph F; Graham, Sean A; Harper, Jennifer W; Hester, Mark W; Howard, Rebecca J; Krauss, Ken W; Kroes, Daniel E; Lane, Robert R; McKee, Karen L; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Middleton, Beth A; Moon, Jena A; Piazza, Sarai C; Rankin, Nicole M; Sklar, Fred H; Steyer, Greg D; Swanson, Kathleen M; Swarzenski, Christopher M; Vervaeke, William C; Willis, Jonathan M; Wilson, K Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2011-12-01

The full Stokes thermo-mechanically coupled model Elmer/Ice is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Elmer/Ice employs the finite element method to solve the full Stokes equations, the temperature evolution equation and the evolution equation of the free surface. The general framework of this modeling effort is a contribution to the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) assessment project, a community-organized effort to estimate the likely range of ice sheet contributions to sea level rise over the next few hundred years (http://tinyurl.com/srise-lanl, http://tinyurl.com/srise-umt). The present geometry (surface and basal topographies) is derived from data where the basal topography was created with the preservation of the troughs at the Jakobshavn Ice Stream, Helheim, Kangerdlussuaq and Petermann glaciers. A mesh of the computational domain is created using an initial footprint which contains elements of 5 km horizontal resolution and to limit the number elements on the footprint while maximizing the spatial resolution, an anisotropic mesh adaptation scheme is employed based on the Hessian matrix of the observed surface velocities. The adaptation is carried out with the tool YAMS and the final footprint is vertically extruded to form a 3D mesh of 320880 elements with 17 equidistant, terrain-following layers. The numerical solution of the Stokes and the heat transfer equations employs direct solvers with stabilization procedures. The boundary conditions are such that the temperature at the surface uses the present-day mean annual air temperature given by a parameterization or directly from the available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is given by data and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. Results for the SeaRISE 2011 sensitivity experiments are presented so that six different experiments have been conducted, grouped in two sets. The Set C (three experiments) applies a change to the surface precipitation and temperature and the set S (three experiments) applies an amplification factor to change the basal sliding velocity. The experiments are compared to a constant climate control run beginning at present (epoch 2004-1-1 0:0:0) and running up to 100 years holding the climate constant to its present state. The experiments with the amplification factor (Set S) show high sensitivities. Relative to the control run, the scenario with an amplification factor of 3x applied to the sliding velocity produces a Greenland contribution to sea level rise of ~25 cm. An amplification factor of 2.5x produces a contribution of ~16 cm and an amplification factor 2x produces a contribution of ~9 cm. The experiments with the changes to the surface precipitation and temperature (set C) show a contribution to sea level rise of ~4 cm when a factor 1x is applied to the temperature and precipitation anomalies. A factor 1.5x produces a sea level rise of ~8 cm and a factor 2x produces a sea level rise of ~12 cm.

Status of Water Levels and Selected Water-Quality Conditions in the Sparta-Memphis Aquifer in Arkansas and the Status of Water Levels in the Sparta Aquifer in Louisiana, Spring 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schrader, T.P.; Jones, J.S.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, the Arkansas Geological Commission, and the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development has monitored water levels in the Sparta Sand of Claiborne Group and Memphis Sand of Claiborne Group since the 1920's. Ground-water withdrawals have increased while water levels have declined since monitoring was initiated. This report has been produced to describe ground-water levels in the aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand and provide information for the management of this valuable resource. The 2005 potentiometric-surface map of the aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand was constructed using water-level data collected in 333 wells in Arkansas and 120 wells in Louisiana during the spring of 2005. The highest water-level altitude measured in Arkansas was 327 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 located in Grant County in the outcrop at the western boundary of the study area; the lowest water-level altitude was 189 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in Union County. The highest water-level altitude measured in Louisiana was 246 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 located in Bossier Parish in the outcrop area near the western boundary of the study area; the lowest water-level altitude was 226 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in central Ouachita Parish. Three large depressions centered in Columbia, Jefferson, and Union Counties in Arkansas are the result of large withdrawals for industrial and public supplies. In Louisiana, three major pumping centers are in Ouachita, Jackson, and Lincoln Parishes. Water withdrawals from these major pumping centers primarily is used for industrial and public-supply purposes. Withdrawals from Ouachita and Lincoln Parishes and Union County, Arkansas, primarily for industrial purposes, have caused the resulting cones of depression to coalesce so that the -40 foot potentiometric contour encircles the three pumping centers. Seven smaller depressions are evident on the 2005 Sparta-Memphis potentiometric-surface map located in Webster and Winn Parishes, Louisiana, and Calhoun, Cleveland, western Columbia, Desha, and Lafayette Counties, Arkansas. The depression in Calhoun County initially was shown in the 1996-1997 potentiometric surface. The depression in Desha County initially was shown in the 1999 potentiometric surface. The depressions in Webster and Winn Parishes were shown as early as 1975. The depressions in Cleveland, western Columbia, and Lafayette Counties initially were shown in the 2003 potentiometric surface. A map of differences in water-level measurements between 2001 and 2005 was constructed using the difference between water-level measurements from 294 wells in Arkansas and 29 wells in Louisiana. The difference in water levels between 2001 and 2005 ranged from -30.1 to 44.6 feet. The largest rise of 44.6 feet in water level measured was in Union County in Arkansas. The largest decline of 30.1 feet in water level measured was in Columbia County in Arkansas. Areas with a general rise in water levels in Arkansas are shown in Arkansas, Columbia, Craighead, Jefferson, Prairie, and the western half of Union Counties. The area around west-central Union County had rises as much as 44.6 feet, with seven wells showing a rise of 20 feet or greater, which is an annual rise of 5 feet or greater. Areas in Arkansas with a general decline in water level are shown in western Bradley, eastern Calhoun, Cleveland, Cross, Desha, Drew, Lafayette, Lee, Lincoln, Lonoke, Poinsett, and the eastern half of Union Counties. In Louisiana, the water-level difference map showed a general rise in water levels in northern Claiborne, northern Webster, and northwestern Union Parishes mainly because of a decrease in industrial withdrawals in southern Arkansas, particularly Union County. Another rise in water level was indicated in western

Soybean Cultivar Variation in Response to Elevated Ozone Concentration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop losses to ozone damage are conservatively estimated to cost $1 to $3 billion in the U.S. These costs will rise as surface-level ozone increases over this century. A critical step in maximizing soybean yield in a future of rising tropospheric ozone is identifying variation in cultivar responses,...

Potentiometric surfaces and water-level trends in the Cockfield (upper Claiborne) aquifer in southern Arkansas and the Wilcox (lower Wilcox) aquifer of northeastern and southern Arkansas, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodgers, Kirk D.

2015-01-01

Linear regression analysis of long-term hydrographs was used to determine the mean annual water-level rise and decline in the Wilcox aquifer in the northeastern and southern areas of Arkansas. In the northeastern area, the mean annual water level declined in all seven counties. The mean annual declines ranged from -0.55 ft/yr in Craighead County to -1.46 ft/yr in St. Francis County. In the southern area, the annual rise and decline calculations for wells with over 20 years of records indicate rising and declining water levels in Clark, Hot Spring, and Nevada Counties. The mean annual water level declined in all counties except Hot Spring County.

Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Melt water ponded at surface in the accumulation zone of Columbia Glacier, Alaska, in July 2008. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: W. Tad Pfeffer, University of Colorado at Boulder NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean.

PubMed

Tamisiea, Mark E; Hughes, Chris W; Williams, Simon D P; Bingley, Richard M

2014-09-28

The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Bedrock Erosion Surfaces Record Former East Antarctic Ice Sheet Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxman, Guy J. G.; Jamieson, Stewart S. R.; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Bentley, Michael J.; Ross, Neil; Armadillo, Egidio; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Leitchenkov, German; DeConto, Robert M.

2018-05-01

East Antarctica hosts large subglacial basins into which the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) likely retreated during past warmer climates. However, the extent of retreat remains poorly constrained, making quantifying past and predicted future contributions to global sea level rise from these marine basins challenging. Geomorphological analysis and flexural modeling within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin are used to reconstruct the ice margin during warm intervals of the Oligocene-Miocene. Flat-lying bedrock plateaus are indicative of an ice sheet margin positioned >400-500 km inland of the modern grounding zone for extended periods of the Oligocene-Miocene, equivalent to a 2-m rise in global sea level. Our findings imply that if major EAIS retreat occurs in the future, isostatic rebound will enable the plateau surfaces to act as seeding points for extensive ice rises, thus limiting extensive ice margin retreat of the scale seen during the early EAIS.

Stratigraphic response of salt marshes to slow rates of sea-level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, J.; Bell, T.

2006-12-01

Conventional models of salt-marsh development show an idealized spatial relationship between salt-marsh floral and foraminiferal zones, where the landward margin of the marsh gradually migrates inland in response to sea-level rise. This model predicts that transgression will result in persistent and possibly expanded salt marshes at the surface, depending on a variety of factors including sediment supply, hydrologic conditions, tidal range, and rate of sea-level rise. However, in areas with abundant sediment supply and slow rates of sea- level rise, the extent of back-barrier salt marshes may decline over time as the barrier-spits mature. Sea level around the northeast coast of Newfoundland is rising at a very slow rate during the late Holocene (<0.5 mm/yr). Sandy barrier-spits and tombolos are common coastal features, but salt marshes are rare. The generalized stratigraphy of dutch cores collected in back-barrier settings in this region is a surface layer of sphagnum peat with abundant woody roots, underlain by sedge-dominated peat that transitions gradually to a thin layer of Juncus sp. peat with agglutinated foraminifera, dominantly Jadammina macrescens and Balticammina pseudomacrescens. These basal peats are interpreted as salt-marsh peats, characterized by the presence of foraminifera that are absent in overlying peat units. This sequence indicates that salt marshes developed in back-barrier environments during the initial stages of barrier progradation, then gradually transitioned to environments increasingly dominated by freshwater flora. These transitions are interpreted to reflect the progradation of the spit, decreased tidal exchange in the back-barrier, and increased influence of freshwater streams discharging into the back-barrier setting. Decreased marine influence on the back-barrier environment leads to a floral and faunal shift associated with a regressive stratigraphy in an area experiencing sea-level rise. For studies of Holocene sea-level change requiring salt-marsh stratigraphic records, it is necessary to account for changing micro-environments to locate sites appropriate for study; salt marshes may play an important role in defining the record, but may not exist at the surface to guide investigation.

Capillary Rise in a Wedge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piva, M.

2009-01-01

In introductory-level physics courses, the concept of surface tension is often illustrated using the example of capillary rise in thin tubes. In this paper the author describes experiments conducted using a planar geometry created with two small plates forming a thin wedge. The distribution of the fluid entering the wedge can be studied as a…

Surface elevation dynamics in a regenerating mangrove forest at Homebush Bay, Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogers, K.; Saintilan, N.; Cahoon, D.

2005-01-01

Following the dieback of an interior portion of a mangrove forest at Homebush Bay, Australia, surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons were installed in the impacted, intermediate and control forest to measure vertical accretion, elevation change, and shallow subsidence. The objectives of the study were to determine current vertical accretion and elevation change rates as a guide to understanding mangrove dieback, ascertain the factors controlling surface elevation change, and investigate the sustainability of the mangrove forest under estimated sea-level rise conditions. The study demonstrates that the influences on surface dynamics are more complex than soil accretion and soil autocompaction alone. During strong vegetative regrowth in the impacted forest, surface elevation increase exceeded vertical accretion apparently as a result of belowground biomass production. In addition, surface elevation in all forest zones was correlated with total monthly rainfall during a severe El Ni?o event, highlighting the importance of rainfall to groundwater recharge and surface elevation. Surface elevation increase for all zones exceeded the 85-year sea level trend for Sydney Harbour. Since mean sea-level also decreased during the El Ni?o event, the decrease in surface elevation did not translate to an increase in inundation frequency or influence the sustainability of the mangrove forest. These findings indicate that subsurface soil processes such as organic matter accumulation and groundwater flux can significantly influence mangrove surface elevation, and contribute to the long-term sustainability of mangrove systems under a scenario of rising sea levels.

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels

PubMed Central

Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J.; Guinn, Steven M.; Engelhardt, Katharina A. M.; Sanders, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested. PMID:27788209

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.

PubMed

Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J; Guinn, Steven M; Engelhardt, Katharina A M; Sanders, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested.

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

A search for scale in sea-level studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, C.E.; Clark, I.

2006-01-01

Many researchers assume a proportional relationship among the atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level. Thus, the rate of sea-level rise should increase in concert with the documented exponential increase in CO2. Although sea surface temperature has increased in places over the past century and short-term sea level rose abruptly during the 1990s, it is difficult to demonstrate a proportional relationship using existing geologic or historic records. Tide gauge records in the United States cover too short a time interval to verify acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, although multicentury tide gauge and staff records from the Netherlands and Sweden suggest a mid-19th-century acceleration in sea-level rise. Reconstructions of sea-level changes for the past 1000 years derived using benthic foraminifer data from salt marshes along the East Coast of the United States suggest an increased rate of relative sea-level rise beginning in the 1600s. Geologic records of relative sea-level rise for the past 6000 years are available for several sites along the US East Coast from 14C-dated basal peat below salt marshes and estuarine sediments. When these three scales of sea-level variation are integrated, adjusted for postglacial isostatic movement, and replotted, the range of variation in sea level suggested by basal peat ages is within ??1 meter of the long-term trend. The reconstruction from Long Island Sound data shows a linear rise in sea level beginning in the mid-1600s at a rate consistent with the historic record of mean high water. Long-term tide gauge records from Europe and North America show similar trends since the mid-19th century. There is no clear proportional exponential increase in the rate of sea-level rise. If proportionality exists among sea level, atmospheric CO2, and temperature, there may be a significant time lag before an anthropogenic increase in the rate of sea-level rise occurs.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Glacier-surge mechanisms promoted by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Hagen, J. O.; Kääb, A.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2015-02-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the polar regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic-aperture-radar-based velocity maps from Basin-3, the largest drainage basin of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Our observations demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2±1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. With the seawater displacement by the terminus advance accounted for, the related sea-level rise contribution amounts to 7.2±2.6 Gt a-1. This rate matches the annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago over the period 2003-2008, highlighting the importance of dynamic mass loss for glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The active role of surface melt, i.e. external forcing, contrasts with previous views of glacier surges as purely internal dynamic instabilities. Given sustained climatic warming and rising significance of surface melt, we propose a potential impact of the hydro-thermodynamic feedback on the future stability of ice-sheet regions, namely at the presence of a cold-based marginal ice plug that restricts fast drainage of inland ice. The possibility of large-scale dynamic instabilities such as the partial disintegration of ice sheets is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

Black Sea outflow response to Holocene meltwater events.

PubMed

Herrle, Jens O; Bollmann, Jörg; Gebühr, Christina; Schulz, Hartmut; Sheward, Rosie M; Giesenberg, Annika

2018-03-06

During the Holocene, North American ice sheet collapse and rapid sea-level rise reconnected the Black Sea with the global ocean. Rapid meltwater releases into the North Atlantic and associated climate change arguably slowed the pace of Neolithisation across southeastern Europe, originally hypothesized as a catastrophic flooding that fueled culturally-widespread deluge myths. However, we currently lack an independent record linking the timing of meltwater events, sea-level rise and environmental change with the timing of Neolithisation in southeastern Europe. Here, we present a sea surface salinity record from the Northern Aegean Sea indicative of two meltwater events at ~8.4 and ~7.6 kiloyears that can be directly linked to rapid declines in the establishment of Neolithic sites in southeast Europe. The meltwater events point to an increased outflow of low salinity water from the Black Sea driven by rapid sea level rise >1.4 m following freshwater outbursts from Lake Agassiz and the final decay of the Laurentide ice sheet. Our results shed new light on the link between catastrophic sea-level rise and the Neolithisation of southeastern Europe, and present a historical example of how coastal populations could have been impacted by future rapid sea-level rise.

Hydrologic conditions in urban Miami-Dade County, Florida, and the effect of groundwater pumpage and increased sea level on canal leakage and regional groundwater flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughes, Joseph D.; White, Jeremy T.

2014-01-01

The model was designed specifically to evaluate the effect of groundwater pumpage on canal leakage at the surface-water-basin scale and thus may not be appropriate for (1) predictions that are dependent on data not included in the calibration process (for example, subdaily simulation of high-intensity events and travel times) and (or) (2) hydrologic conditions that are substantially different from those during the calibration and verification periods. The reliability of the model is limited by the conceptual model of the surface-water and groundwater system, the spatial distribution of physical properties, the scale and discretization of the system, and specified boundary conditions. Some of the model limitations are manifested in model errors. Despite these limitations, however, the model represents the complexities of the interconnected surface-water and groundwater systems that affect how the systems respond to groundwater pumpage, sea-level rise, and other hydrologic stresses. The model also quantifies the relative effects of groundwater pumpage and sea-level rise on the surface-water and groundwater systems.

Habitability at the frontlines of sea level rise: a spatiotemporal analysis of settlements and coastal inundation in eight global sea level rise hotspots between 1990 and 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, S. A.; Wrathall, D.

2017-12-01

Over the coming centuries and millennia, sea level rise will greatly redistribute global human population through displacement and migration. Sudden, large-scale displacement is extremely disruptive to society both for migrants and host communities, and there is a great scientific and policy need to anticipate where, when and how this could happen around sea level rise. We can meet these needs by examining how long-term coastal inundation of settlements has already occurred. Using two global geospatial data sets, the Global Human Settlement Layer and the Global Surface Water Layer, we examine the global spatial concentration of settlement inundation that occurred between 1990 and 2015. We focus on the eight sea level rise hotspots identified in Clark et al (2016), which include Bangladesh, Mekong Delta, Indonesia, Japan, Nile Delta, Philippines, and the US Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and examine areas of convergence between settlement loss density and negative population change. This analysis reveals specific areas of concern within vulnerable countries, and forms the basis for focused investigations of the long-term impact of coastal inundation on various migration systems. This analysis shows us how long-term sets of satellite derived data on human population can help anticipate how sea level rise will alter future patterns of human settlement and migration into the 21st century and beyond.

Potentiometric Surfaces and Water-Level Trends in the Cockfield (Upper Claiborne) and Wilcox (Lower Wilcox) Aquifers of Southern and Northeastern Arkansas, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugh, Aaron L.

2010-01-01

Eocene-age sand beds near the base of the Cockfield Formation of Claiborne Group constitute the aquifer known locally as the Cockfield aquifer. Upper-Paleocene age sand beds within the lower parts of the Wilcox Group constitute the aquifer known locally as the Wilcox aquifer. In 2005, reported water withdrawals from the Cockfield aquifer in Arkansas totaled 16.1 million gallons per day, while reported water withdrawals from the Wilcox aquifer in Arkansas totaled 27.0 million gallons per day. Major withdrawals from these units were for industrial and public water supplies with lesser but locally important withdrawals for commercial, domestic, and agricultural uses. During February 2009, 56 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer and 57 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the Wilcox aquifer. The results from the 2009 water-level measurements are presented in potentiometric-surface maps and in combination with previous water-level measurements. Trends in water-level change over time within the two aquifers are investigated using water-level difference maps and well hydrographs. Water-level difference maps were constructed for each aquifer using the difference between depth to water measurements made in 2003 to 2009. Well hydrographs for each aquifer were constructed for wells with 20 or more years of historical water-level data. The hydrographs were evaluated individually using linear regression to calculate the annual rise or decline in water levels, and by aggregating the regression results by county and statistically summarizing for the range, mean, and median water-level change in each county. The 2009 potentiometric surface of the Cockfield aquifer map indicates the regional direction of groundwater flow generally towards the east and southeast, except in two areas of intense groundwater withdrawals that have developed into cones of depression. The lowest water-level altitude measured was 43 feet and the highest water-level altitude measured was 351 feet. A water-level difference map was constructed from 54 wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer within Arkansas. The largest rise in water level was 14.9 feet and the largest decline was 27.4 feet. Seven wells had a rise in water level, and the remaining 47 wells had a decline in water level. Hydrographs for 33 wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer were developed. Hydrographs indicate water-level changes in individual wells ranged from rises of 0.33 feet per year to declines of 1.21 feet per year over the 20-year period (1990-2009). County summaries of the linear regression analysis indicate Cleveland and Columbia Counties have mean annual rises. Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Lincoln, and Union Counties have mean annual declines. The potentiometric surface for the Wilcox aquifer is presented using two maps, one for a southern area and another for a northeastern area, because of the absence of water-level data in the central part of the State. The direction of groundwater flow in the southern area is generally the east, except around two cones of depression and around two mounds of elevated water levels. Water-level altitudes in the southern area range from 147 feet to 400 feet. The direction of groundwater flow in the northeastern area is generally to the south and southeast except in an area of intense groundwater withdrawals that has altered the flow to a westerly direction. Two water-level difference maps were constructed using water-level altitudes measured in 2003 to 2009 from 53 wells completed in the Wilcox aquifer within southern and northeastern Arkansas. In the southern area the largest rise in water level was 16.0 feet and the largest decline was 17.7 feet. Eight wells in the southern area had rising water levels and the remaining five wells had declining water levels. In the northeastern area, the largest rise in water level was 1.3 feet and the larg

Earth history. Low mid-Proterozoic atmospheric oxygen levels and the delayed rise of animals.

PubMed

Planavsky, Noah J; Reinhard, Christopher T; Wang, Xiangli; Thomson, Danielle; McGoldrick, Peter; Rainbird, Robert H; Johnson, Thomas; Fischer, Woodward W; Lyons, Timothy W

2014-10-31

The oxygenation of Earth's surface fundamentally altered global biogeochemical cycles and ultimately paved the way for the rise of metazoans at the end of the Proterozoic. However, current estimates for atmospheric oxygen (O2) levels during the billion years leading up to this time vary widely. On the basis of chromium (Cr) isotope data from a suite of Proterozoic sediments from China, Australia, and North America, interpreted in the context of data from similar depositional environments from Phanerozoic time, we find evidence for inhibited oxidation of Cr at Earth's surface in the mid-Proterozoic (1.8 to 0.8 billion years ago). These data suggest that atmospheric O2 levels were at most 0.1% of present atmospheric levels. Direct evidence for such low O2 concentrations in the Proterozoic helps explain the late emergence and diversification of metazoans. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Hierarchy of sedimentary discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds from the middle Paleozoic of eastern North America: Implications for cratonic sequence stratigraphy

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaughlin, P.I.; Brett, Carlton E.; Wilson, M.A.

2008-01-01

Sedimentological analyses of middle Paleozoic epeiric sea successions in North America suggest a hierarchy of discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds of increasing complexity. Simple firmgrounds and hardgrounds, which are comparatively ephemeral features, form the base of the hierarchy. Composite hardgrounds, reworked concretions, authigenic mineral crusts and monomictic intraformational conglomerates indicate more complex histories. Polymictic intraformational conglomerates, ironstones and phosphorites form the most complex discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds. Complexity of discontinuities is closely linked to depositional environments duration of sediment starvation and degree of reworking which in turn show a relationship to stratigraphic cyclicity. A model of cratonic sequence stratigraphy is generated by combining data on the complexity and lateral distribution of discontinuities in the context of facies successions. Lowstand, early transgressive and late transgressive systems tracts are representative of sea-level rise. Early and late transgressive systems tracts are separated by the maximum starvation surface (typically a polymictic intraformational conglomerate or condensed phosphorite), deposited during the peak rate of sea-level rise. Conversely the maximum flooding surface, representing the highest stand of sea level, is marked by little to no break in sedimentation. The highstand and falling stage systems tracts are deposited during relative sea-level fall. They are separated by the forced-regression surface, a thin discontinuity surface or condensed bed developed during the most rapid rate of sea-level fall. The lowest stand of sea level is marked by the sequence boundary. In subaerially exposed areas it is occasionally modified as a rockground or composite hardground.

Numerical Modelling of Three-Fluid Flow Using The Level-set Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongying; Lou, Jing; Shang, Zhi

2014-11-01

This work presents a numerical model for simulation of three-fluid flow involving two different moving interfaces. These interfaces are captured using the level-set method via two different level-set functions. A combined formulation with only one set of conservation equations for the whole physical domain, consisting of the three different immiscible fluids, is employed. Numerical solution is performed on a fixed mesh using the finite volume method. Surface tension effect is incorporated using the Continuum Surface Force model. Validation of the present model is made against available results for stratified flow and rising bubble in a container with a free surface. Applications of the present model are demonstrated by a variety of three-fluid flow systems including (1) three-fluid stratified flow, (2) two-fluid stratified flow carrying the third fluid in the form of drops and (3) simultaneous rising and settling of two drops in a stationary third fluid. The work is supported by a Thematic and Strategic Research from A*STAR, Singapore (Ref. #: 1021640075).

Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred.

It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate.

Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water.

The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer.

In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat.

This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant area of rising sea levels in the North Atlantic where sea levels are usually low. This large pool of rapidly rising warm water is evidence of a major change in ocean circulation. It signals a slow down in the sub-polar gyre, a counter-clockwise system of currents that loop between Ireland, Greenland and Newfoundland.

Such a change could have an impact on climate since the sub-polar gyre may be connected in some way to the nearby global thermohaline circulation, commonly known as the global conveyor belt. This is the slow-moving circulation in which water sinks in the North Atlantic at different locations around the sub-polar gyre, spreads south, travels around the globe, and slowly up-wells to the surface before returning around the southern tip of Africa. Then it winds its way through the surface currents in the Atlantic and eventually comes back to the North Atlantic.

It is unclear if the weakening of the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre is part of a natural cycle or related to global warming.

This image was made possible by the detailed record of sea surface height measurements begun by Topex/Poseidon and continued by Jason-1. The recently launched Ocean Surface Topography Mission on the Jason-2 satellite (OSTM/Jason-2) will soon take over this responsibility from Jason-1. The older satellite will move alongside OSTM/Jason-2 and continue to measure sea surface height on an adjacent ground track for as long as it is in good health.

Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 are joint missions of NASA and the French space agency, CNES. OSTM/Jason-2 is collaboration between NASA; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; CNES; and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. JPL manages the U.S. portion of the missions for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.

Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100, implying that physically plausible upper limits on future sea-level rise might need to be reconsidered.

Soil organic matter decomposition follows plant productivity response to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Peter; Jensen, Kai; Megonigal, James Patrick

2015-04-01

The accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM) is an important mechanism for many tidal wetlands to keep pace with sea-level rise. SOM accumulation is governed by the rates of production and decomposition of organic matter. While plant productivity responses to sea-level rise are well understood, far less is known about the response of SOM decomposition to accelerated sea-level rise. Here we quantified the effects of sea-level rise on SOM decomposition by exposing planted and unplanted tidal marsh monoliths to experimentally manipulated flood duration. The study was performed in a field-based mesocosm facility at the Smithsonian Global Change Research Wetland, a micro tidal brackish marsh in Maryland, US. SOM decomposition was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated using a stable carbon isotope approach. Despite the dogma that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM mineralization was not sensitive to varying flood duration over a 35 cm range in surface elevation in unplanted mesocoms. In the presence of plants, decomposition rates were strongly and positively related to aboveground biomass (p≤0.01, R2≥0.59). We conclude that rates of soil carbon loss through decomposition are driven by plant responses to sea level in this intensively studied tidal marsh. If our result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for modeling carbon sequestration and marsh accretion in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

Using Groundwater Modeling to Evaluate Impacts of Sea Level Rise on A Coastal Riverine Ecosystem: A Case Study of Saint Jones River Water Shed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, C.; McKenna, T. E.

2016-12-01

A 3-D, transient, variable-density groundwater flow model (SEAWAT) is used to simulate the groundwater response to predicted sea level rise in the Saint Jones River watershed adjacent to the Delaware Estuary. Sea level rise directly leads to substantial changes in the depth of water table, and these changes can extend far inland due to the long tidal rivers in this area. This research studied the impacts of three different sea level rise scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m and 1.5m) on two concerned aspects in the area: failure of septic tank system and loss of agriculture land. The model results indicate that 1) 10% 13% of current existing septic tank will fail as the water table rise to less than 1.5meters from land surface, and 2) approximate 271 to 927 acres of agriculture land, which covers about 4% 13% of total current agriculture land in the study area, will be lost due to water table rise above the effective rooting depth. To count in the uncertainty of climate change in the future, Monte Carlo simulation was applied and a linear transformation model was created and verified to facilitate the tremendous computation.

Comparison of Bottomless Lift Nets and Breder Traps for Sampling Salt-Marsh Nekton

EPA Science Inventory

Vegetated salt-marsh surfaces provide refuge, forage, and spawning habitat for estuarine nekton, yet are threatened by accelerating rates of sea-level rise in southern New England and elsewhere. Nekton responses to ongoing marsh surface changes need to be evaluated with effective...

Contrasting Decadal-Scale Changes in Elevation and Vegetation in Two Long Island Sound Salt Marshes

EPA Science Inventory

Northeastern US salt marshes face multiple co-stressors, including accelerating rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR), elevated nutrient inputs, and low sediment supplies. In order to evaluate how marsh surface elevations respond to such factors, we used surface elevation table...

Vertical accretion and shallow subsidence in a mangrove forest of southwestern Florida, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, D.R.; Lynch, J.C.

1997-01-01

Simultaneous measurements of vertical accretion from artificial soil marker horizons and soil elevation change from sedimentation-erosion table (SET) plots were used to evaluate the processes related to soil building in range, basin, and overwash mangrove forests located in a low-energy lagoon which recieves minor inputs of terregenous sediments. Vertical accretion measures reflect the contribution of surficial sedimentation (sediment deposition and surface root growth). Measures of elevation change reflect not only the contributions of vertical accretion but also those of subsurface processes such as compaction, decomposition and shrink-swell. The two measures were used to calculate amounts of shallow subsidence (accretion minus elevation change) in each mangrove forest. The three forest types represent different accretionary envrionments. The basin forest was located behind a natural berm. Hydroperiod here was controlled primarily by rainfall rather than tidal exchange, although the basin flooded during extreme tidal events. Soil accretion here occurred primarily by autochthonous organic matter inputs, and elevation was controlled by accretion and shrink-swell of the substrate apparently related to cycles of flooding-drying and/or root growth-decomposition. This hydrologically-restricted forest did not experience an accretion or elevation deficit relative to sea-level rise. The tidally dominated fringe and overwash island forests accreted through mineral sediment inputs bound in place by plant roots. Filamentous turf algae played an important role in stabilizing loose muds in the fringe forest where erosion was prevalent. Elevation in these high-energy environments was controlled not only by accretion but also by erosion and/or shallow subsidence. The rate of shallow subsidence was consistently 3-4 mm y-1 in the fringe and overwash island forests but was negligible in the basin forest. Hence, the vertical development of mangrove soils was influenced by both surface and subsurface processes and the procces controlling soil elevation differed among forest types. The mangrove ecosystem at Rookery Bay has remained stable as sea level has risen during the past 70 years. Yet, lead-210 accretion data suggest a substantial accretion deficit has occurred in the past century (accretion was 10-20 cm < sea-level rise from 1930 to 1990) in the fringe and island forests at Rookery Bay. In contrast, our measures of elevation change mostly equalled the estimates of sea-level rise and shallow subsidence. These data suggest that (1) vertical accretion in this system is driven by local sea-level rise and shallow subsidence, and (2) the mangrove forests are mostly keeping pace with sea-level rise. Thus, the vulnerability of this mangrove ecosystem to sea-level rise is best described in terms of an elevation deficit (elevation change minus sea-level rise) based on annual measures rather than an accretion deficit (accretion minus sea-level rise) based on decadal measures.

Surface degradation of Li1-xNi0.80Co0.15Al0.05O2 cathodes: Correlating charge transfer impedance with surface phase transformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallis, S.; Pereira, N.; Mukherjee, P.; Quackenbush, N. F.; Faenza, N.; Schlueter, C.; Lee, T.-L.; Yang, W. L.; Cosandey, F.; Amatucci, G. G.; Piper, L. F. J.

2016-06-01

The pronounced capacity fade in Ni-rich layered oxide lithium ion battery cathodes observed when cycling above 4.1 V (versus Li/Li+) is associated with a rise in impedance, which is thought to be due to either bulk structural fatigue or surface reactions with the electrolyte (or combination of both). Here, we examine the surface reactions at electrochemically stressed Li1-xNi0.8Co0.15Al0.05O2 binder-free powder electrodes with a combination of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, spatially resolving electron microscopy, and spatially averaging X-ray spectroscopy techniques. We circumvent issues associated with cycling by holding our electrodes at high states of charge (4.1 V, 4.5 V, and 4.75 V) for extended periods and correlate charge-transfer impedance rises observed at high voltages with surface modifications retained in the discharged state (2.7 V). The surface modifications involve significant cation migration (and disorder) along with Ni and Co reduction, and can occur even in the absence of significant Li2CO3 and LiF. These data provide evidence that surface oxygen loss at the highest levels of Li+ extraction is driving the rise in impedance.

Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, J. K.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

Summary of Sonic Boom Rise Times Observed During FAA Community Response Studies over a 6-Month Period in the Oklahoma City Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maglieri, Domenic J.; Sothcott, Victor E.

1990-01-01

The sonic boom signature data acquired from about 1225 supersonic flights, over a 6-month period in 1964 in the Oklahoma City area, was enhanced with the addition of data relating to rise times and total signature duration. These later parameters, not available at the time of publication of the original report on the Oklahoma City sonic boom exposures, are listed in tabular form along with overpressure, positive impulse, positive duration, and waveform category. Airplane operating information along with the surface weather observations are also included. Sonic boom rise times include readings to the 1/2, 3/4, and maximum overpressure values. Rise time relative probabilities for various lateral locations from the ground track of 0, 5, and 10 miles are presented along with the variation of rise times with flight altitude. The tabulated signature data, along with corresponding airplane operating conditions and surface and upper level atmospheric information, are also available on electronic files to provide it in the format for more efficient and effective utilization.

The Climate Science Special Report: Rising Seas and Changing Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

GMSL has risen by about 16-21 cm since 1900. Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s, and global mean sea-surface temperature increased 0.7°C/century between 1900 to 2016. Human activity contributed substantially to generating a rate of GMSL rise since 1900 faster than during any preceding century in at least 2800 years. A new set of six sea-level rise scenarios, spanning a range from 30 cm to 250 cm of 21st century GMSL rise, were developed for the CSSR. The lower scenario is based on linearly extrapolating the past two decades' rate of rise. The upper scenario is informed by literature estimates of maximum physically plausible values, observations indicating the onset of marine ice sheet instability in parts of West Antarctica, and modeling of ice-cliff and ice-shelf instability mechanisms. The new scenarios include localized projections along US coastlines. There is significant variability around the US, with rates of rise likely greater than GMSL rise in the US Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. Under scenarios involving extreme Antarctic contributions, regional rise would be greater than GMSL rise along almost all US coastlines. Historical sea-level rise has already driven a 5- to 10-fold increase in minor tidal flooding in several US coastal cities since the 1960s. Under the CSSR's Intermediate sea-level rise scenario (1.0 m of GMSL rise in 2100) , a majority of NOAA tide gauge locations will by 2040 experience the historical 5-year coastal flood about 5 times per year. Ocean changes are not limited to rising sea levels. Ocean pH is decreasing at a rate that may be unparalleled in the last 66 million years. Along coastlines, ocean acidification can be enhanced by changes in the upwelling (particularly along the US Pacific Coast); by episodic, climate change-enhanced increases in freshwater input (particularly along the US Atlantic Coast); and by the enhancement of biological respiration by nutrient runoff. Climate models project a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under high-emissions scenarios. Any slowdown will reduce ocean heat and carbon absorption and raise sea levels off the northeastern US A full AMOC collapse, improbable in the current century, would lead to an additional 0.5 m of sea-level rise and offset 0-2°C of warming over the US.

Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

2013-12-01

Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future. This would allow them to plan ahead to reduce the level of risk to homes, industry, and infrastructure San Francisco International Airport will be most likely be flooded in the next 30 years. Blue lines indicate current Mean High Water Levels. Yellow lines indicate the Mean High Water level combined with flood levels for 2030. Green, 2050, and Red lines, 2100

Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 Artist Concept

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-09-23

An artist concept of the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 Earth satellite. The Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 is an Earth satellite designed to make observations of ocean topography for investigations into sea-level rise and the relationship between ocean circulation and climate change. The satellite also provides data on the forces behind such large-scale climate phenomena as El Niño and La Niña. The mission is a follow-on to the French-American Jason 1 mission, which began collecting data on sea-surface levels in 1992. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA18158

Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah

2009-01-01

An increase in the rate of sea level rise is one of the primary impacts of projected global climate change. To assess potential inundation associated with a continued acceleration of sea level rise, the highest resolution elevation data available were assembled from various sources and mosaicked to cover the land surfaces of the San Francisco Bay region. Next, to quantify high water levels throughout the bay, a hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Estuary was driven by a projection of hourly water levels at the Presidio. This projection was based on a combination of climate model outputs and empirical models and incorporates astronomical, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise influences. Based on the resulting data, maps of areas vulnerable to inundation were produced, corresponding to specific amounts of sea level rise and recurrence intervals. These maps portray areas where inundation will likely be an increasing concern. In the North Bay, wetland survival and developed fill areas are at risk. In Central and South bays, a key feature is the bay-ward periphery of developed areas that would be newly vulnerable to inundation. Nearly all municipalities adjacent to South Bay face this risk to some degree. For the Bay as a whole, as early as 2050 under this scenario, the one-year peak event nearly equals the 100-year peak event in 2000. Maps of vulnerable areas are presented and some implications discussed.

Doomed to Drown? Sediment Dynamics, Infrastructure, and the Threat of Sea Level Rise in the Bengal Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Overeem, I.

2017-12-01

The Bengal Delta in Bangladesh is regularly described as a "delta in peril" of catastrophic coastal flooding. In order to maintain a positive surface elevation, sediment aggradation on the delta must be equal to or greater than that of local sea level rise. Paradoxically, widespread armoring of the delta by coastal embankments meant to protect crops from tidal flooding has limited fluvial floodplain deposition, leading to rapid compaction and lowered land surface levels. This renders the floodplains of the delta susceptible to devastating flooding by sea level rise and storm surges capable of breaching the poorly maintained embankments. The government of Bangladesh is currently considering a one-size-fits-all approach to renovating the embankments under the assumption that sediment dynamics in the delta are everywhere the same. However, natural physical processes are spatially variable across the delta front and therefore the impact of dikes on sediment dispersal and morphology should reflect these variations. Direct sedimentation measurements, short-lived radionuclides, and a simplified sediment routing model are used to show that transport processes and sedimentation rates are highly variable across the lower delta. Aggradation is more than double the rate of local sea level rise in some areas, and dominant modes of transport are reflected in the patterns of sediment routing and flux across the lower deltaplain, though embankments are major controls on sediment dynamics throughout the coastal delta. This challenges the assumption that the Bengal Delta is doomed to drown; rather it signifies that effective preparation for 21st century climate change requires consideration of spatially variable physical dynamics and local feedbacks with large-scale infrastructure.

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

2012-01-01

One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

Simulating reef response to sea-level rise at Lizard Island: A geospatial approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamylton, S. M.; Leon, J. X.; Saunders, M. I.; Woodroffe, C. D.

2014-10-01

Sea-level rise will result in changes in water depth over coral reefs, which will influence reef platform growth as a result of carbonate production and accretion. This study simulates the pattern of reef response on the reefs around Lizard Island in the northern Great Barrier Reef. Two sea-level rise scenarios are considered to capture the range of likely projections: 0.5 m and 1.2 m above 1990 levels by 2100. Reef topography has been established through extensive bathymetric profiling, together with available data, including LiDAR, single beam bathymetry, multibeam swath bathymetry, LADS and digitised chart data. The reef benthic cover around Lizard Island has been classified using a high resolution WorldView-2 satellite image, which is calibrated and validated against a ground referencing dataset of 364 underwater video records of the reef benthic character. Accretion rates are parameterised using published hydrochemical measurements taken in-situ and rules are applied using Boolean logic to incorporate geomorphological transitions associated with different depth ranges, such as recolonisation of the reef flat when it becomes inundated as sea level rises. Simulations indicate a variable platform response to the different sea-level rise scenarios. For the 0.5 m rise, the shallower reef flats are gradually colonised by corals, enabling this active geomorphological zone to keep up with the lower rate of rise while the other sand dominated areas get progressively deeper. In the 1.2 m scenario, a similar pattern is evident for the first 30 years of rise, beyond which the whole reef platform begins to slowly drown. To provide insight on reef response to sea-level rise in other areas, simulation results of four different reef settings are discussed and compared at the southeast reef flat (barrier reef), Coconut Beach (fringing reef), Watson's Bay (leeward bay with coral patches) and Mangrove Beach (sheltered lagoonal embayment). The reef sites appear to accrete upwards at a rate commensurate with the rate of rise, thereby maintaining their original profile and position relative to the sea surface and the leeward and lagoonal sites with a low accretion rate maintain a similar profile but slowly gain depth relative to sea-level. The result of this variable response is that elevated features of the reef platform, such as reef patches and crests tend to become more pronounced.

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

Volcanoes and climate: Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean.

PubMed

Gleckler, P J; Wigley, T M L; Santer, B D; Gregory, J M; Achutarao, K; Taylor, K E

2006-02-09

We have analysed a suite of 12 state-of-the-art climate models and show that ocean warming and sea-level rise in the twentieth century were substantially reduced by the colossal eruption in 1883 of the volcano Krakatoa in the Sunda strait, Indonesia. Volcanically induced cooling of the ocean surface penetrated into deeper layers, where it persisted for decades after the event. This remarkable effect on oceanic thermal structure is longer lasting than has previously been suspected and is sufficient to offset a large fraction of ocean warming and sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic influences.

Impact of relative sea level and rapid climate changes on the architecture and lithofacies of the Holocene Rhone subaqueous delta (Western Mediterranean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Berné, Serge; Jouet, Gwénaël; Bassetti, Maria-Angela; Dennielou, Bernard; Maillet, Grégoire M.; Tondut, Mathieu

2014-05-01

The modern Rhone delta in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean) is a typical wave-dominated delta that developed after the stabilization of relative sea level following the last deglacial sea-level rise. Similar to most other deltas worldwide, it displays several stacked parasequences and lobes that reflect the complex interaction between accommodation, sediment supply and autogenic processes on the architecture of a wave-dominated delta. The interpretation of a large set of newly acquired very high-resolution seismic and sedimentological data, well constrained by 14C dates, provides a refined three-dimensional image of the detailed architecture (seismic bounding surfaces, sedimentary facies) of the Rhone subaqueous delta, and allows us to propose a scenario for delta evolution during the last deglaciation and Holocene. The subaqueous delta consists of “parasequence-like” depositional wedges, a few metres to 20-30 m in thickness. These wedges first back-stepped inland toward the NW in response to combined global sea-level rise and overall westward oceanic circulation, at a time when sediment supply could not keep pace with rapid absolute (eustatic) sea-level rise. At the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition, more rapid sea-level rise led to the formation of a major flooding surface (equivalent to a wave ravinement surface). After stabilization of global sea level in the mid-Holocene, accommodation became the leading factor in controlling delta architecture. An eastward shift of depocentres occurred, probably favoured by higher subsidence rate within the thick Messinian Rhone valley fill. The transition between transgressive (backstepping geometry) and regressive (prograding geometry) (para)sequences resulted in creation of a Maximum Flooding Surface (MFS) that differs from a “classical” MFS described in the literature. It consists of a coarse-grained interval incorporating reworked shoreface material within a silty clay matrix. This distinct lithofacies results from condensation/erosion, which appears as an important process even within supply-dominated deltaic systems, due to avulsion of distributaries. The age of the MFS varies along-strike between ca. 7.8 and 5.6 kyr cal. BP in relation to the position of depocentres and climatically-controlled sediment supply. The last rapid climate change of the Holocene, the Little Ice Age (1250-1850 AD), had a distinct stratigraphic influence on the architecture and lithofacies of the Rhone subaqueous delta through the progradation of two deltaic lobes. In response to changes in sediment supply linked to rapid climate changes (and to anthropic factors), the Rhone delta evolved from wave-dominated to fluvial dominated, and then wave dominated again.

Hydrogeology of the Faultless site, Nye County, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thordarson, W.

The Faultless event was the detonation of an intermediate-yield nuclear device on January 19, 1968, at a depth of 975 m below the surface of Hot Creek Valley, Nevada. This report presents details of the hydrogeology of the rubble chimney and radiochemical monitoring in re-entry hole UC-1-P-2SR. The surface location of re-entry hole UC-1-P-2SR is about 91 m north of the emplacement hole, UC-1. Re-entry hole UC-1-P-2SR was drilled to a total depth of about 1097 m. The hole penetrated Quaternary and Tertiary valley-fill sediments above the rubble chimney, as well as Quaternary and Tertiary valley-fill and Tertiary tuffaceous sedimentsmore » within the chimney and rubble-filled cavity. Monitoring of the water level in re-entry hole UC-1-P-2SR indicated that, from 1970 to 1974, the water level was 695 m below land surface. During filling of the rubble chimney from 1974 to 1983, the water level rose slowly to a depth of 335.1 m. The 1983 level was about 167 m below the pre-event level that was about 168 m below land surface. Water with temperatures ranging from 37 to 61/sup 0/C occurred at the bottom of the re-entry hole at depths ranging from 728 to 801 m. A temperature of 100/sup 0/C at a depth of 820 m was projected from temperature logs. The hydraulic connection between the re-entry hole and the rubble chimney is considered poor to fair. Chemical analyses of water samples indicate that the water predominantly was a sodium bicarbonate type. Chemical and radiochemical analyses indicated that, although the constituents generally increased with increasing depth, three distinct water-quality zones have lasted for more than 16 years, even during the rising water level. The hot, radioactive water from the Faultless event apparently rose into the lower zone concomitant with the rising water level, as the rubble chimney was being filled. This general rise was interrupted by the apparently major dilution from colder water descending from the upper zone during 1975 and 1977.« less

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

2016-01-01

Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

Haemoglobin scavenging after subarachnoid haemorrhage.

PubMed

Durnford, A; Dunbar, J; Galea, J; Bulters, D; Nicoll, J A R; Boche, D; Galea, I

2015-01-01

Rapid and effective clearance of cell-free haemoglobin after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is important to prevent vasospasm and neurotoxicity and improve long-term outcome. Haemoglobin is avidly bound by haptoglobin, and the complex is cleared by CD163 expressed on the membrane surface of macrophages. We studied the kinetics of haemoglobin and haptoglobin in cerebrospinal fluid after SAH. We show that haemoglobin levels rise gradually after SAH. Haptoglobin levels rise acutely with aneurysmal rupture as a result of injection of blood into the subarachnoid space. Although levels decline as haemoglobin scavenging occurs, complete depletion of haptoglobin does not occur and levels start rising again, indicating saturation of CD163 sites available for haptoglobin-haemoglobin clearance. In a preliminary neuropathological study we demonstrate that meningeal CD163 expression is upregulated after SAH, in keeping with a proinflammatory state. However, loss of CD163 occurs in meningeal areas with overlying blood compared with areas without overlying blood. Becauses ADAM17 is the enzyme responsible for shedding membrane-bound CD163, its inhibition may be a potential therapeutic strategy after SAH.

The Blackwater NWR inundation model. Rising sea level on a low-lying coast: land use planning for wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Curt; Clark, Inga; Guntenspergen, Glenn; Cahoon, Don; Caruso, Vincent; Hupp, Cliff; Yanosky, Tom

2004-01-01

The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and shallow water surfaces has solved this problem. Our team has developed a detailed LIDAR map of the BNWR area at a 30 centimeter (ca. 1 ft) contour interval (figure 2). The new map allows us to identify the present marsh vegetation zones and to predict the location and area of future zones on a decade-by- decade basis over the next century at increments of sea level rise on the order of 3 cm/decade (ca. 1 inch). We have developed two scenarios for the model. The first is a steady-state model that uses the historic rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr to predict marsh areas. The second is a 'global warming' scenario utilizing a conservative IPCC model with an exponentially-increasing rate of sea level rise. Under either scenario, the BNWR is progressively inundated with an expanding core of open water. Although their positions change in the future, the areas of intertidal marsh as well as those of the critical high marsh remain fairly constant until the year 2050. Beyond that time, the low-lying land surface is overtopped by rising sea level and the area is dominated by open water. Our model suggests that wetland habitat in the Blackwater area might be maintained and sustained through a combination of public and private preservation efforts through easements in combination with judicious Federal land acquisition into the predicted areas of suitable marsh formation - but for only the next 50 years. Beyond that time much of this area will become open water.

Evidence of a Weakening Gulf Stream from In-situ Expendable Bathythermograph Data, 1996-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roupe, L.; Baringer, M. O.

2014-12-01

A weakening of the Gulf Stream, the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation system, has been hypothesized to accelerate sea level rise on the east coast of the United States, caused by changes in the Gulf Stream strength and, hence, sea level difference across the current. It still remains unclear if the Gulf Stream has in fact weakened or remains stable, along with the potential role of natural long-term variability. Tide gauges along the east coast show an accelerated sea level rise from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod that is 3-4 times higher than global sea level rise. Satellite altimetry shows a weakening gradient in Gulf Stream sea surface height that is highly correlated (r=-0.85) with east coast sea level rise, however, direct velocity measurements showed no significant decrease in Gulf Stream strength over a similar time period. We introduce another in-situ dataset to examine the issues between these conflicting results. Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) measure temperature at depth directly, and then depth and salinity can be inferred, along with geostrophic velocity and transport. XBT data has been used to measure transport in various current systems, however, the Gulf Stream transport has not been analyzed using the newest high-density XBT data made available since 1996. The trend in sea level difference is determined to be 3.3 +/- 3.2 mm/yr, resulting in an overall decrease of 5.2 cm in sea level from 1996-2013. This result agrees with satellite altimetry results that show a significant decrease in recent years. This data also shows a changing Gulf Stream core position, based on the 15°C isotherm at 200 m, of 0.03°N/yr that is negatively correlated with surface transport (r=-0.25). Issues remain in defining the core and width of the Gulf Stream and with eliminating the possibility of natural variability in the current system.

Effective use of surface-water management to control saltwater intrusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.

2012-12-01

The Biscayne aquifer in southeast Florida is susceptible to saltwater intrusion and inundation from rising sea-level as a result of high groundwater withdrawal rates and low topographic relief. Groundwater levels in the Biscayne aquifer are managed by an extensive canal system that is designed to control flooding, supply recharge to municipal well fields, and control saltwater intrusion. We present results from an integrated surface-water/groundwater model of a portion of the Biscayne aquifer to evaluate the ability of the existing managed surface-water control network to control saltwater intrusion. Surface-water stage and flow are simulated using a hydrodynamic model that solves the diffusive-wave approximation of the depth-integrated shallow surface-water equations. Variable-density groundwater flow and fluid density are solved using the Oberbeck--Boussinesq approximation of the three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow equation and a sharp interface approximation, respectively. The surface-water and variable-density groundwater domains are implicitly coupled during each Picard iteration. The Biscayne aquifer is discretized into a multi-layer model having a 500-m square horizontal grid spacing. All primary and secondary surface-water features in the active model domain are discretized into segments using the 500-m square horizontal grid. A 15-year period of time is simulated and the model includes 66 operable surface-water control structures, 127 municipal production wells, and spatially-distributed daily internal and external hydrologic stresses. Numerical results indicate that the existing surface-water system can be effectively used in many locations to control saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer resulting from increases in groundwater withdrawals or sea-level rise expected to occur over the next 25 years. In other locations, numerical results indicate surface-water control structures and/or operations may need to be modified to control saltwater intrusion.

Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehlert, Dana; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forster, Richard R.; Box, Jason E.; vandenBroeke, Michael R.; Miege, Clement; Burgess, Evan W.; vanAngelen, Jan H.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Koenig, Lora S.; Paden, John; Lewis, Cameron;

Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojian

The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water production from CMIP5 data with the model by assuming that the Greenland Ice Sheet is covered in black carbon (lowering the albedo) and perpetually covered by optically thick clouds (increasing long wave radiation). This upper bound roughly triples surface meltwater production, resulting in 30 cm of sea level rise by 2100. These model estimates, combined with prior research suggesting an additional 40-100 cm of sea level rise associated with dynamical discharge, suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet is poised to contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century.

Finite element thermal analysis of multispectral coatings for the ABL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Rashmi S.; Bettis, Jerry R.; Stewart, Alan F.; Bonsall, Lynn; Copland, James; Hughes, William; Echeverry, Juan C.

1999-04-01

The thermal response of a coated optical surface is an important consideration in the design of any high average power system. Finite element temperature distribution were calculated for both coating witness samples and calorimetry wafers and were compared to actual measured data under tightly controlled conditions. Coatings for ABL were deposited on various substrates including fused silica, ULE, Zerodur, and silicon. The witness samples were irradiate data high power levels at 1.315micrometers to evaluate laser damage thresholds and study absorption levels. Excellent agreement was obtained between temperature predictions and measured thermal response curves. When measured absorption values were not available, the code was used to predict coating absorption based on the measured temperature rise on the back surface. Using the finite element model, the damaging temperature rise can be predicted for a coating with known absorption based on run time, flux, and substrate material.

Greenland ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise buffered by meltwater storage in firn.

PubMed

Harper, J; Humphrey, N; Pfeffer, W T; Brown, J; Fettweis, X

2012-11-08

Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet has shown increasing trends in areal extent and duration since the beginning of the satellite era. Records for melt were broken in 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012. Much of the increased surface melt is occurring in the percolation zone, a region of the accumulation area that is perennially covered by snow and firn (partly compacted snow). The fate of melt water in the percolation zone is poorly constrained: some may travel away from its point of origin and eventually influence the ice sheet's flow dynamics and mass balance and the global sea level, whereas some may simply infiltrate into cold snow or firn and refreeze with none of these effects. Here we quantify the existing water storage capacity of the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet and show the potential for hundreds of gigatonnes of meltwater storage. We collected in situ observations of firn structure and meltwater retention along a roughly 85-kilometre-long transect of the melting accumulation area. Our data show that repeated infiltration events in which melt water penetrates deeply (more than 10 metres) eventually fill all pore space with water. As future surface melt intensifies under Arctic warming, a fraction of melt water that would otherwise contribute to sea-level rise will fill existing pore space of the percolation zone. We estimate the lower and upper bounds of this storage sink to be 322 ± 44 gigatonnes and  1,289(+388)(-252) gigatonnes, respectively. Furthermore, we find that decades are required to fill this pore space under a range of plausible future climate conditions. Hence, routing of surface melt water into filling the pore space of the firn column will delay expansion of the area contributing to sea-level rise, although once the pore space is filled it cannot quickly be regenerated.

Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence: Implications for Flooding in New Orleans, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, V.R.; Zilkoski, D.B.; Hart, D.A.

2003-01-01

Global sea-level rise is projected to accelerate two-to four-fold during the next century, increasing storm surge and shoreline retreat along low-lying, unconsolidated coastal margins. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain in southeastern Louisiana is particularly vulnerable to erosion and inundation due to the rapid deterioration of coastal barriers combined with relatively high rates of land subsidence. Land-surface altitude data collected in the leveed areas of the New Orleans metropolitan region during five survey epochs between 1951 and 1995 indicated mean annual subsidence of 5 millimeters per year. Preliminary results of other studies detecting the regional movement of the north-central Gulf Coast indicate that the rate may be as much as 1 centimeter per year. Considering the rate of subsidence and the mid-range estimate of sea-level rise during the next 100 years (480 millimeters), the areas of New Orleans and vicinity that are presently 1.5 to 3 meters below mean sea level will likely be 2.5 to 4.0 meters or more below mean sea level by 2100.

Flooding Hazard Maps of Different Land Uses in Subsidence Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yongjun; Chang, Hsiangkuan; Tan, Yihchi

2017-04-01

This study aims on flooding hazard maps of different land uses in the subsidence area of southern Taiwan. Those areas are low-lying due to subsidence resulting from over pumping ground water for aquaculture. As a result, the flooding due to storm surges and extreme rainfall are frequent in this area and are expected more frequently in the future. The main land uses there include: residence, fruit trees, and aquaculture. The hazard maps of the three land uses are investigated. The factors affecting hazards of different land uses are listed below. As for residence, flooding depth, duration of flooding, and rising rate of water surface level are factors affecting its degree of hazard. High flooding depth, long duration of flooding, and fast rising rate of water surface make residents harder to evacuate. As for fruit trees, flooding depth and duration of flooding affects its hazard most due to the root hypoxia. As for aquaculture, flooding depth affects its hazard most because the high flooding depth may cause the fish flush out the fishing ponds. An overland flow model is used for simulations of hydraulic parameters for factors such as flooding depth, rising rate of water surface level and duration of flooding. As above-mentioned factors, the hazard maps of different land uses can be made and high hazardous are can also be delineated in the subsidence areas.

Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

Rise and Fall of one of World's largest deltas; the Mekong delta in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minderhoud, P. S. J.; Eslami Arab, S.; Pham, H. V.; Erkens, G.; van der Vegt, M.; Oude Essink, G.; Stouthamer, E.; Hoekstra, P.

2017-12-01

The Mekong delta is the third's largest delta in the world. It is home to almost 20 million people and an important region for the food security in South East Asia. As most deltas, the Mekong delta is the dynamic result of a balance of sediment supply, sea level rise and subsidence, hosting a system of fresh and salt water dynamics. Ongoing urbanization, industrialization and intensification of agricultural practices in the delta, during the past decades, resulted in growing domestic, agricultural and industrial demands, and have led to a dramatic increase of fresh water use. Since the year 2000, the amount of fresh groundwater extracted from the subsurface increased by 500%. This accelerated delta subsidence as the groundwater system compacts, with current sinking rates exceeding global sea level rise up to an order of magnitude. These high sinking rates have greatly altered the sediment budget of the delta and, with over 50% of the Mekong delta surface elevated less than 1 meter above sea level, greatly increase vulnerability to flooding and storm surges and ultimately, permanent inundation. Furthermore, as the increasingly larger extractions rapidly reduce the fresh groundwater reserves, groundwater salinization subsequently increases. On top of that, dry season low-flows by the Mekong river cause record salt water intrusion in the delta's estuarine system, creating major problems for rice irrigation. We present the work of three years research by the Dutch-Vietnamese `Rise and Fall' project on land subsidence and salinization in both groundwater and surface water in the Vietnamese Mekong delta.

Quantifying the mass loss of peripheral Greenland glaciers and ice caps (1958-2014).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; van den Broeke, Michiel

2016-04-01

Since the 2000s, mass loss from Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) has accelerated, becoming an important contributor to sea level rise. Under continued warming throughout the 21st century, GICs might yield up to 7.5 to 11 mm sea level rise, with increasing dominance of surface runoff at the expense of ice discharge. However, despite multiple observation campaigns, little remains known about the contribution of GICs to total Greenland mass loss. Furthermore, the relatively coarse resolutions in regional climate models, i.e. 5 km to 20 km, fail to represent the small scale patterns of surface mass balance (SMB) components over these topographically complex regions including also narrow valley glaciers. Here, we present a novel approach to quantify the contribution of GICs to surface melt and runoff, based on an elevation dependent downscaling method. GICs daily SMB components at 1 km resolution are obtained by statistically downscaling the outputs of RACMO2.3 at 11 km resolution to a down-sampled version of the GIMP DEM for the period 1958-2014. This method has recently been successfully validated over the Greenland ice sheet and is now applied to GICs. In this study, we first evaluate the 1 km daily downscaled GICs SMB against a newly available and comprehensive dataset of ablation stake measurements. Then, we investigate present-day trends of meltwater production and SMB for different regions and estimate GICs contribution to total Greenland mass loss. These data are considered valuable for model evaluation and prediction of future sea level rise.

Summary of the SeaRISE Project's Experiments on Modeled Ice-Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level: Linearities and Non-linearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, Robert

2013-04-01

The SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) project achieved ice-sheet model ensemble responses to a variety of prescribed changes to surface mass balance, basal sliding and ocean boundary melting. Greenland ice sheet models are more sensitive than Antarctic ice sheet models to likely atmospheric changes in surface mass balance, while Antarctic models are most sensitive to basal melting of its ice shelves. An experiment approximating the IPCC's RCP8.5 scenario produces first century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 7.3 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 17 cm, respectively. By 200 years, these projections increase to 53.2 and 23.4 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 57 cm. The considerable range among models was not only in the magnitude of ice lost, but also in the spatial pattern of response to identical forcing. Despite this variation, the response of any single model to a large range in the forcing intensity was remarkably linear in most cases. Additionally, the results of sensitivity experiments to single types of forcing (i.e., only one of the surface mass balance, or basal sliding, or ocean boundary melting) could be summed to accurately predict any model's result for an experiment when multiple forcings were applied simultaneously. This suggests a limited amount of feedback through the ice sheet's internal dynamics between these types of forcing over the time scale of a few centuries (SeaRISE experiments lasted 500 years).

Hydrogeology of, simulation of groundwater flow in, and potential effects of sea-level rise on the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the vicinity of Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiore, Alex R.; Voronin, Lois M.; Wieben, Christine M.

2018-03-19

The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge encompasses more than 47,000 acres of New Jersey coastal habitats, including salt marshes, freshwater wetlands, tidal wetlands, barrier beaches, woodlands, and swamps. The refuge is along the Atlantic Flyway and provides breeding habitat for fish, migratory birds, and other wildlife species. The refuge area may be threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR).The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system underlies the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. Groundwater is an important source of freshwater flow into the refuge, but information about the interaction of surface water and groundwater in the refuge area and the potential effects of SLR on the underlying aquifer system is limited. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), conducted a hydrologic assessment of the refuge in New Jersey and developed a groundwater flow model to improve understanding of the geohydrology of the refuge area and to serve as a tool to evaluate changes in groundwater-level altitudes that may result from a rise in sea level.Groundwater flow simulations completed for this study include a calibrated baseline simulation that represents 2005–15 hydraulic conditions and three SLR scenarios―20, 40, and 60 centimeters (cm) (0.656, 1.312, and 1.968 feet, respectively). Results of the three SLR simulations indicate that the water table in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the refuge area will rise, resulting in increased discharge of fresh groundwater to freshwater wetlands and streams. As sea level rises, simulated groundwater discharge to the salt marsh, bay, and ocean is projected to decrease. Flow from the salt marsh, bay, and ocean to the overlying surface water is projected to increase as sea level rises.The simulated movement of the freshwater-seawater interface as sea level rises depends on the hydraulic-head gradient. In the center of the Forsythe model area, topographic relief is 23 feet (ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is 0.0033. In the center of the Forsythe model area, the simulated interface moved inland about 600 ft and downward about 15 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 as a result of a SLR of 60 cm. In the southern part of the Forsythe model area, the topography is flatter (relief of 8 ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is smaller (0.001). In the southern part of the Forsythe model study area, the simulated interface in this area is projected to move inland about 200 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 and does not move downward.

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and its application to habitat sustainability for endangered species in the San Francisco Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Thorne, Karen M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Callaway, John C.; Takekawa, John Y.

2014-01-01

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

Estimating relative sea-level rise and submergence potential at a coastal wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, Donald R.

2015-01-01

A tide gauge records a combined signal of the vertical change (positive or negative) in the level of both the sea and the land to which the gauge is affixed; or relative sea-level change, which is typically referred to as relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Complicating this situation, coastal wetlands exhibit dynamic surface elevation change (both positive and negative), as revealed by surface elevation table (SET) measurements, that is not recorded at tide gauges. Because the usefulness of RSLR is in the ability to tie the change in sea level to the local topography, it is important that RSLR be calculated at a wetland that reflects these local dynamic surface elevation changes in order to better estimate wetland submergence potential. A rationale is described for calculating wetland RSLR (RSLRwet) by subtracting the SET wetland elevation change from the tide gauge RSLR. The calculation is possible because the SET and tide gauge independently measure vertical land motion in different portions of the substrate. For 89 wetlands where RSLRwet was evaluated, wetland elevation change differed significantly from zero for 80 % of them, indicating that RSLRwet at these wetlands differed from the local tide gauge RSLR. When compared to tide gauge RSLR, about 39 % of wetlands experienced an elevation rate surplus and 58 % an elevation rate deficit (i.e., sea level becoming lower and higher, respectively, relative to the wetland surface). These proportions were consistent across saltmarsh, mangrove, and freshwater wetland types. Comparison of wetland elevation change and RSLR is confounded by high levels of temporal and spatial variability, and would be improved by co-locating tide gauge and SET stations near each other and obtaining long-term records for both.

Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines.

PubMed

Rodolfo, Kelvin S; Siringan, Fernando P

2006-03-01

Land subsidence resulting from excessive extraction of groundwater is particularly acute in East Asian countries. Some Philippine government sectors have begun to recognise that the sea-level rise of one to three millimetres per year due to global warming is a cause of worsening floods around Manila Bay, but are oblivious to, or ignore, the principal reason: excessive groundwater extraction is lowering the land surface by several centimetres to more than a decimetre per year. Such ignorance allows the government to treat flooding as a lesser problem that can be mitigated through large infrastructural projects that are both ineffective and vulnerable to corruption. Money would be better spent on preventing the subsidence by reducing groundwater pumping and moderating population growth and land use, but these approaches are politically and psychologically unacceptable. Even if groundwater use is greatly reduced and enlightened land-use practices are initiated, natural deltaic subsidence and global sea-level rise will continue to aggravate flooding, although at substantially lower rates.

Potentiometric Surface of the Upper and Lower Aquifers of the North Coast Limestone Aquifer System and Hydrologic Conditions in the Arecibo-Manati Area, Puerto Rico, November 27-December 1, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, Jose M.; Gómez-Gómez, Fernando

2008-01-01

A ground-water level synoptic survey of the limestone aquifer in the Arecibo to Manati area, Puerto Rico, was conducted from November 27 through December 1, 2006 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources. The purpose of the study was to define the spatial distribution of the potentiometric surface of the upper and lower aquifers of the North Coast limestone aquifer system. A potentiometric surface is defined as an areal representation of the levels to which water would rise in tightly cased wells open to an aquifer (Fetter, 1988). These potentiometric surface maps can be used by water-resources planners to understand the general direction of ground-water flow and to evaluate ground-water conditions for water supply and resource protection. The study was conducted during a period of rising ground-water levels resulting from above-normal rainfall during October and November 2006 when rainfall amount was about 30 percent above normal. The study area encompassed 125 square miles and was bounded to the north by the Atlantic Ocean, to the south by the southern extension of the limestone units, to the west by the Rio Grande de Arecibo, and to the east by the Rio Grande de Manati (pls. 1 and 2; inset).

Understanding the Steric Height Long Term Variability at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) Site with a Neutral Density Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goncalves Neto, A.; Johnson, R. J.; Bates, N. R.

2016-02-01

Rising sea level is one of the main concerns for human life in a scenario with global atmosphere and ocean warming, which is of particular concern for oceanic islands. Bermuda, located in the center of the Sargasso Sea, provides an ideal location to investigate sea level rise since it has a long term tide gauge (1933-present) and is in close proximity to deep ocean time-series sites, namely, Hydrostation `S' (1954-present) and the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study site (1988-present). In this study, we use the monthly CTD deep casts at BATS to compute the contribution of steric height (SH) to the local sea surface height (SSH) for the past 24 years. To determine the relative contribution from the various water masses we first define 8 layers (Surface Layer, Upper Thermocline, Subtropical Mode-Water, Lower Thermocline, Antarctic Intermediate Water, Labrador Sea Water, Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water, Denmark Strait Overflow Water) based on neutral density criteria for which SH is computed. Additionally, we calculate the thermosteric and halosteric components for each of the defined neutral density layers. Surprisingly, the results show that, despite a 3.3mm/yr sea level rise observed at the Bermuda tide gauge, the steric contribution to the SSH at BATS has decreased at a rate of -1.1mm/yr during the same period. The thermal component is found to account for the negative trend in the steric height (-4.4mm/yr), whereas the halosteric component (3.3mm/yr) partially compensates the thermal signal and can be explained by an overall cooling and freshening at the BATS site. Although the surface layer and the upper thermocline waters are warming, all the subtropical and polar water masses, which represent most of the local water column, are cooling and therefore drive the overall SH contribution to the local SSH. Hence, it suggests that the mass contribution to the local SSH plays an important role in the sea level rise, for which we investigate with GRACE data.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

PubMed

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-06-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-01-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

2017-12-01

Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

Potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer, west-central Florida, May 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, A.G.; Blanchard, R.A.

2006-01-01

The Floridan aquifer system consists of the Upper and Lower Floridan aquifers separated by the middle confining unit. The middle confining unit and the Lower Floridan aquifer in west-central Florida generally contain highly mineralized water. The water-bearing units containing freshwater are herein referred to as the Upper Floridan aquifer. The Upper Floridan aquifer is a highly productive aquifer and supplies more than 10 times the amount of water pumped from either the surficial aquifer system or the intermediate aquifer system in most of the study area (Duerr and others, 1988). This map report shows the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer measured in May 2005. The potentiometric surface is an imaginary surface connecting points of equal altitude to which water will rise in a tightly cased well that taps a confined aquifer system (Lohman, 1979). This map represents water-level conditions near the end of the dry season, when ground-water levels usually are at an annual low and withdrawals for agricultural use typically are high. The cumulative average rainfall of 67.27 inches for west-central Florida (from June 2004 through May 2005) was 14.20 inches above the historical cumulative average of 53.07 inches (Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD), 2005). The above average precipitation is attributed to the active hurrican season for Florida in 2004. Historical cumulative averages are calculated from regional rainfall summary reports (1915 to the most recent completed calendar year) and are updated monthly by the SWFWMD. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the SWFWMD, is part of a semiannual series of Upper Floridan aquifer potentiometric-surface map reports for west-central Florida. Potentiometric-surface maps have been prepared for January 1964, May 1969, May 1971, May 1973, May 1974, and for each May and September since 1975. Water-level data are collected in May and September each year to show the approximate annual low and high water-level conditions, respectively. Most of the water-level data for this map were collected by the USGS during May 23-27, 2005. Supplemental water-level data were collected by other agencies and companies. A corresponding potentiometric-surface map was prepared for areas east and north of the SWFWMD boundary by the USGS office in Altamonte Springs, Florida (Kinnaman, 2006). Most water-level measurements were made during a 5-day period; therefore, measurements do not represent a 'snapshot' of conditions at a specific time, nor do they necessarily coincide with the seasonal low water-level condition. Water levels in about 19 percent of the wells measured in May 2005 were lower than the May 2004 water levels (Blanchard and others, 2004). Data from 409 wells indicate that the May 2005 water levels ranged from about 5 feet below to about 18 feet above the May 2004 water levels (fig. 1). The largest water-level declines occurred in southwestern Hernando County, northeastern Hillsborough County, and parts of Hillsborough, Sumter, and Sarasota Counties. The largest water-level rises occurred in southeastern Hillsborough County, eastern Manatee County, and western Hardee County (fig. 1). Water levels in about 95 percent of the wells measured in May 2005 were lower than the September 2004 water levels (Blanchard and Seidenfeld, 2005). Data from 405 wells indicate that the May 2005 water levels ranged from about 22 feet below to 14 feet above the September 2004 water levels. The largest water-level decline was in east-central Manatee County and the largest water-level rise was in central Sarasota County.

Understanding the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands: The Human Dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Denise

2010-05-01

In the 21st century coastal systems are subject to the pressures of centuries of population growth and resource exploitation. In 2003, in the US approximately 153 million people (53 percent of the population) lived in coastal counties, an increase of 33 million people since 1980 and this is expected to increase by approximately 7 million by the year 2008. Eight of the world's top ten largest cities are located at the coast, 44 % of the world's population (more people than inhabited the entire globe in 1950) live within 150 km of the coast and in 2001 over half the world's population lived within 200 km of a coastline. . Increased population density at the coasts often brings pollution and habitat degradation - decreasing the value of many of the resources that initially attract the coastal development - and it also means the effect of sea-level rise on coastal geomorphic systems must be seen in the context of additional human pressures. For global sea-level debate centers on the magnitude and rate of the rise around most of the world; the exception being those areas still experiencing falling sea-levels due to isostatic rebound. Many coastal island states are clearly vulnerable. While the ‘lurid and misleading maps' of the 1980's used by many to indicate areas to be flooded by rising seas in the future, have been replaced by more considered discussion of the response of coastal dynamics to rising seas there is still considerable debate about the amount of sea-level rise shorelines will experience in the 21st century. For coastal wetlands four main sets of physical factors - fine sediment regime; tidal conditions; coastal configuration; and relative sea-level change - define the geomorphic context for coastal marsh development and survival during the 21st century. Each of these factors is influenced by changes in climate and human alterations to coastal and inshore environments. In turn changes in sediment dynamics are mediated by both physical forcing and biotic factors, and plant growth is an additional factor influencing the survival of more organic marshes. Salt marsh surfaces are frequently considered to be in an equilibrium relationship with local mean sea level but the projection of salt marsh sustainability under future climate scenarios is a complex issue and depends on: the relative importance of organic matter to marsh vertical development; the complexities governing organic matter accumulation during rising sea level; the importance of subsurface processes in determining surface elevation change; and the role of storm events and hydrologic changes in controlling sediment deposition, soil conditions and plant growth. The effects of global change, both climate and human induced, on coastal wetlands will be manifest differently among various geomorphic settings but their vulnerability to global change in the 21st century should be taken seriously by coastal managers and policy-makers alike.

Anticipating Future Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms in New York City (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Gornitz, V.; Bader, D.; Little, C. M.; Oppenheimer, M.; Patrick, L.; Orton, P. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

2013-12-01

Hurricane Sandy caused 43 fatalities in New York City and 19 billion in damages. Mayor Michael Bloomberg responded by convening the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2), to provide up-to-date climate information for the City's Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR). The Mayor's proposed 20 billion plan aims to strengthen the City's resilience to coastal inundation. Accordingly, the NPCC2 scientific and technical support team generated a suite of temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise and extreme event projections through the 2050s. The NPCC2 sea level rise projections include contributions from ocean thermal expansion, dynamic changes in sea surface height, mass changes in glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets, and land water storage. Local sea level changes induced by changes in ice mass include isostatic, gravitational, and rotational effects. Results are derived from CMIP5 model-based outputs, expert judgment, and literature surveys. Sea level at the Battery, lower Manhattan, is projected to rise by 7-31 in (17.8-78.7cm) by the 2050s relative to 2000-2004 (10 to 90 percentile). As a result, flood heights above NAVD88 for the 100-year storm (stillwater plus waves) would rise from 15.0 ft (0.71 m) in the 2000s to 15.6-17.6 ft (4.8-5.4 m) by the 2050s (10-90 percentile). The annual chance of today's 100-year flood would increase from 1 to 1.4-5.0 percent by the 2050s.

Predictions of turbidity due to enhanced sediment resuspension resulting from sea-level rise on a fringing Coral Reef: Evidence from Molokai, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ogston, A.S.; Field, M.E.

2010-01-01

Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ~11 mg/l to ~20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9 to 37. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ~80 relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. ?? 2010 the Coastal Education & Research Foundation (CERF).

Data report for the Siple Coast (Antarctica) project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, R. A.; Stephenson, S. N.; Roberts, E. P.; Macayeal, D. R.; Lindstrom, D. R.

1988-01-01

This report presents data collected during three field seasons of glaciological studies in the Antarctica and describes the methods employed. The region investigated covers the mouths of Ice Streams B and C (the Siple Coast) and Crary Ice Rise on the Ross Ice Shelf. Measurements included in the report are as follows: surface velocity and deformation from repeated satellite geoceiver positions; surface topography from optical levelling; radar sounding of ice thickness; accumulation rates; near-surface densities and temperature profiles; and mapping from aerial photography.

The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.

PubMed

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T; Hernández, E; Rull, Valentí; Rull Vegas, Elisa

2015-05-15

Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Rain‐induced subsurface airflow and Lisse effect

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Haipeng; Jiao, Jiu J.; Weeks, Edwin P.

2008-01-01

Water‐level increase after rainfall is usually indicative of rainfall recharge to groundwater. This, however, may not be true if the Lisse effect occurs. This effect represents the water‐level increase in a well driven by airflow induced by an advancing wetting front during highly intensive rains. The rainwater, which may behave like a low‐permeability lid, seals the ground surface so that the air pressure beneath the wetting front is increased because of air compression due to downward movement of the wetting front. A rapid and substantial rise of the water level in the well screened below water table, which bears no relationship to groundwater recharge, can be induced when various factors such as soil properties and the rain‐runoff condition combine favorably. A transient, three‐dimensional and variably saturated flow model was employed to study the air and groundwater flows in the soil under rain conditions. The objectives of this paper are two‐fold: to evaluate the reliability of the theory of the Lisse effect presented by Weeks to predict its magnitude in modeled situations that mimic the physical complexity of real aquifers, and to conduct parametric studies on the sensitivity of the water‐level rise in the well to soil properties and the rain event. The simulation results reveal that the magnitude of the Lisse effect increases with the ponding depth. Soil permeability plays a key role in generating the Lisse effect. The water‐level rise in the well is delayed relative to the air‐pressure rise in the unsaturated zone when the soil permeability is low, and the maximum water‐level rise is less than the maximum air pressure induced by rain infiltration. The simulation also explores the sensitivity of the Lisse effect to the van Genuchten parameters and the water table depth.

Selected hydrologic data for the upper Rio Hondo basin, Lincoln County, New Mexico, 1945-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donohoe, Lisa C.

2004-01-01

Demands for ground and surface water have increased in the upper Rio Hondo Basin due to increases in development and population. Local governments are responsible for land-use and development decisions and, therefore, the governments need information about water resources in their areas. Hydrologic data were compiled for the upper Rio Hondo Basin and water-level data were collected during two synoptic measurements in March and July 2003. Water-level data from March 2003 were contoured and compared with contours constructed in 1963. The 5,600-, 5,700-, and 5,800-foot March 2003 contours indicate that water levels rose. The 5,500-foot contour for March 2003 indicates a decline in water level. The 5,400-foot contour of March 2003 and the 1963 contour mostly coincide, indicating a static water level. The 5,300- and 5,200-foot contours for March 2003 cross the 1963 contours, indicating a decline in water levels near the Rio Ruidoso but a rise in water levels near the Rio Bonito. In eight hydrographs, 2003 water levels are shown to be higher than water levels from the mid- to late 1950's in five of the eight wells. For the same period of record, water levels in the three remaining wells were lower. Rising and declining water levels were highest in the northern part of the study area; the median rise was 4.01 feet and the median decline was 3.51 feet. In the southern part of the study area, the median water-level rise was 2.21 feet and the median decline was 1.56 feet.

Status of water levels and selected water-quality conditions in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer in Arkansas, Spring-Summer 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schrader, T.P.

2006-01-01

During the spring of 2003, water levels were measured in 341 wells in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer in Arkansas. Waterquality samples were collected for temperature and specificconductance measurements during the spring-summer of 2003 from 70 wells in Arkansas in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. Maps of areal distribution of potentiometric surface, change in waterlevel measurements from 1999 to 2003, and specific-conductance data reveal spatial trends across the study area. The highest water-level altitude measured in Arkansas was 328 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD of 1929) in Craighead County; the lowest water-level altitude was 199 feet below NGVD of 1929 in Union County. Three large cones of depression are shown in the 2003 potentiometric surface map, centered in Columbia, Jefferson, and Union Counties in Arkansas as a result of large withdrawals for industrial and public supplies. A broad depression exists in western Poinsett County in Arkansas. The potentiometric surface indicates that large withdrawals have altered or reversed the natural direction of flow in most areas. In the northern third of the study area the flow is from the east, west, and north towards the broad depression in Poinsett County. In the central third of the study area the flow is dominated by the cone of depression centered in Jefferson County. In the southern third of the study area the flow is dominated by the two cones of depression in Union and Columbia Counties. A map of water-level changes from 1999 to 2003 was constructed using water-level measurements from 281 wells. The largest rise in water level measured was about 57.8 feet in Columbia County. The largest decline in water level measured was about -71.6 feet in Columbia County. Areas with a general rise are shown in Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Columbia, Ouachita, and Union Counties. Areas with a general decline are shown in Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lonoke, Phillips, Poinsett, Prairie, and Woodruff Counties. Hydrographs were constructed for wells with a minimum of 25 years of water-level measurements. A trend line using a linear regression was calculated for the period of record from spring of 1978 to spring of 2003 to determine the annual decline or rise in feet per year for water levels in each well. The hydrographs were grouped by county. The mean values for county annual water-level decline or rise ranged from -1.42 to 0.27 foot per year. Specific conductance ranged from 82 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius in Jefferson County to about 1,210 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius in Lee County. The mean specific conductance was 400 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius.

Response of Living Shorelines to Wave Energy and Sea Level rise: Short-term Resilience and Long-term Vulnerability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currin, C.; Davis, J.

2017-12-01

A decade of research and monitoring of Living Shoreline sites in North Carolina identifies both resilient and vulnerable features of this approach to estuarine shoreline stabilization. We used a wave energy model to calculate representative wave energy along 1500 miles of estuarine shoreline, and observed a linear, negative relationship between wind-wave energy and the width of fringing salt marshes. Proximity to navigation channels (boat wakes) further reduced fringing marsh width. These results provide guidance for Living Shoreline design alternatives. Surface elevation tables (SETs) deployed at the lower edge of both natural fringing marshes and `Living Shoreline' marsh-sill sites demonstrated that while natural marshes were losing surface elevation at an average rate of 6 mm y-1, marsh surface elevation at Living Shoreline sites increased at an average of 3 mm y-1. Marsh vegetation at the lower edge of natural sites exhibited a decline in biomass, while Living Shoreline sites exhibited an increase in upper marsh species and an extension of lower marsh into previous mudflat habitat. These changes provide Living Shoreline (marsh-sill) sites with added resilience to sea level rise, though decreased inundation alters the delivery of other ecosystem services (fish habitat, nutrient cycling). North Carolina lagoonal estuaries have low suspended sediment supply and low topography, and modeling predicts that landward transgression is the primary means by which salt marsh acreage can be maintained under moderate to high sea level rise scenarios. In this region, bank erosion can be important source of sediment to wetland habitats. Further, the association of built infrastructure with Living Shoreline sites portends a future scenario of coastal squeeze, as marsh migration landward will be inhibited.

Vegetation Influences on Tidal Freshwater Marsh Sedimentation and Accretion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadol, D. D.; Elmore, A. J.; Engelhardt, K.; Palinkas, C. M.

2011-12-01

Continued sea level rise, and the potential for acceleration over the next century, threatens low-lying natural and cultural resources throughout the world. In the national capital region of the United States, for example, the National Park Service manages over 50 km^2 of land along the shores of the tidal Potomac River and its tributaries that may be affected by sea level rise. Dyke Marsh Wildlife Preserve on the Potomac River south of Washington, DC, is one such resource with a rich history of scientific investigation. It is a candidate for restoration to replace marsh area lost to dredging in the 1960s, yet for restoration to succeed in the long term, accretion must maintain the marsh surface within the tidal range of rising relative sea level. Marsh surface accretion rates tend to increase with depth in the tidal frame until a threshold depth is reached below which marsh vegetation cannot be sustained. Suspended sediment concentration, salinity, tidal range, and vegetation community all influence the relationship between depth and accretion rate. The complex interactions among these factors make sedimentation rates difficult to generalize across sites. Surface elevation tables (SET) and feldspar marker horizons have been monitored at 9 locations in Dyke Marsh for 5 years, providing detailed data on sedimentation, subsidence, and net accretion rates at these locations. We combine these data with spatially rich vegetation surveys, a LiDAR derived 1-m digital elevation model of the marsh, and temperature-derived inundation durations to model accretion rates across the marsh. Temperature loggers suggest a delayed arrival of tidal water within the marsh relative to that predicted by elevation alone, likely due to hydraulic resistance caused by vegetation. Wave driven coastal erosion has contributed to bank retreat rates of ~2.5 m/yr along the Potomac River side of the marsh while depositing a small berm of material inland of the retreating shoreline. Excluding sites affected by this process yields an average net accretion rate of 3.5 mm/yr, similar to the long term rate of 3-5 mm/yr derived from dated organic material from the base of marsh cores and local sea level rise of 3.8 mm/yr since 1984 recorded at the Washington, DC tide gage. The Potomac River shore sites affected by berm sedimentation average 45 mm/yr of accretion, though the majority of this was deposited as a 20-cm-thick packet in the winter of 2009-2010. Some additional elevation control is provided by a land survey of the marsh performed in 1992 in conjunction with a hydraulic modeling study, which indicates an average of 11 mm/yr of accretion across the marsh. All available evidence suggests that marsh surfaces have the capacity to keep up with sea level rise; however, rapid bank erosion poses a severe threat to the sustainability of the marsh.

Differential in surface elevation change across mangrove forests in the intertidal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Haifeng; Wang, Wenqing; Ma, Wei; Wang, Mao

2018-07-01

A better understanding of surface elevation changes in different mangrove forests would improve our predictions of sea-level rise impacts, not only upon mangrove species distributions in the intertidal zone, but also on the functioning of these wetlands. Here, a two-year (2015-2017) dataset derived from 18 RSET-MH (rod surface elevation table-marker horizon) stations at Dongzhaigang Bay, Hainan, China, was analyzed to investigate how surface elevation changes differed across mangrove species zones. The current SET data indicated a rather high rate (9.6 mm y-1, on average) of surface elevation gain that was mostly consistent with that (8.1 mm y-1, on average) inferred from either the 137Cs or 210Pb dating of sediment cores. In addition, these surface elevation changes were sensitive to elevation in the intertidal zone and differed significantly between the two study sites (Sanjiang and Houpai). Mangrove species inhabiting the lower intertidal zone tended to experience greater surface elevation change at Sanjiang, which agrees with the general view that sedimentation and elevation gains are driven by elevation in the intertidal zone (i.e., greater when positioned lower in the intertidal profile). However, at Houpai, both surface elevation change and surface accretion showed the opposite trend (i.e., greater when positioned higher in the intertidal profile). This study's results indicate that the pattern of surface elevation changes across the intertidal profile maybe inconsistent due to intricate biophysical controls. Therefore, instead of using a constant rate, models should presume a topography that evolves at differing rates of surface elevation change in different species zones across the intertidal profile when predicting the impacts of sea-level rise on mangrove distributions.

Influence of sea level rise on iron diagenesis in an east Florida subterranean estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roy, M.; Martin, J.B.; Cherrier, J.; Cable, J.E.; Smith, C.G.

2010-01-01

Subterranean estuary occupies the transition zone between hypoxic fresh groundwater and oxic seawater, and between terrestrial and marine sediment deposits. Consequently, we hypothesize, in a subterranean estuary, biogeochemical reactions of Fe respond to submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and sea level rise. Porewater and sediment samples were collected across a 30-m wide freshwater discharge zone of the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, USA) subterranean estuary, and at a site 250. m offshore. Porewater Fe concentrations range from 0.5 ??M at the shoreline and 250. m offshore to about 286 ??M at the freshwater-saltwater boundary. Sediment sulfur and porewater sulfide maxima occur in near-surface OC-rich black sediments of marine origin, and dissolved Fe maxima occur in underlying OC-poor orange sediments of terrestrial origin. Freshwater SGD flow rates decrease offshore from around 1 to 0.1. cm/day, while bioirrigation exchange deepens with distance from about 10. cm at the shoreline to about 40. cm at the freshwater-saltwater boundary. DOC concentrations increase from around 75 ??M at the shoreline to as much as 700 ??M at the freshwater-saltwater boundary as a result of labile marine carbon inputs from marine SGD. This labile DOC reduces Fe-oxides, which in conjunction with slow discharge of SGD at the boundary, allows dissolved Fe to accumulate. Upward advection of fresh SGD carries dissolved Fe from the Fe-oxide reduction zone to the sulfate reduction zone, where dissolved Fe precipitates as Fe-sulfides. Saturation models of Fe-sulfides indicate some fractions of these Fe-sulfides get dissolved near the sediment-water interface, where bioirrigation exchanges oxic surface water. The estimated dissolved Fe flux is approximately 0.84 ??M Fe/day per meter of shoreline to lagoon surface waters. Accelerated sea level rise predictions are thus likely to increase the Fe flux to surface waters and local primary productivity, particularly along coastlines where groundwater discharges through sediments. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

Evidence of exceptional oyster-reef resilience to fluctuations in sea level.

PubMed

Ridge, Justin T; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Fodrie, F Joel

2017-12-01

Ecosystems at the land-sea interface are vulnerable to rising sea level. Intertidal habitats must maintain their surface elevations with respect to sea level to persist via vertical growth or landward retreat, but projected rates of sea-level rise may exceed the accretion rates of many biogenic habitats. While considerable attention is focused on climate change over centennial timescales, relative sea level also fluctuates dramatically (10-30 cm) over month-to-year timescales due to interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. To assess the response of oyster-reef ( Crassostrea virginica ) growth to interannual variations in mean sea level (MSL) and improve long-term forecasts of reef response to rising seas, we monitored the morphology of constructed and natural intertidal reefs over 5 years using terrestrial lidar. Timing of reef scans created distinct periods of high and low relative water level for decade-old reefs ( n  = 3) constructed in 1997 and 2000, young reefs ( n  = 11) constructed in 2011 and one natural reef (approximately 100 years old). Changes in surface elevation were related to MSL trends. Decade-old reefs achieved 2 cm/year growth, which occurred along higher elevations when MSL increased. Young reefs experienced peak growth (6.7 cm/year) at a lower elevation that coincided with a drop in MSL. The natural reef exhibited considerable loss during the low MSL of the first time step but grew substantially during higher MSL through the second time step, with growth peaking (4.3 cm/year) at MSL, reoccupying the elevations previously lost. Oyster reefs appear to be in dynamic equilibrium with short-term (month-to-year) fluctuations in sea level, evidencing notable resilience to future changes to sea level that surpasses other coastal biogenic habitat types. These growth patterns support the presence of a previously defined optimal growth zone that shifts correspondingly with changes in MSL, which can help guide oyster-reef conservation and restoration.

Surface elevation dynamics in vegetated Spartina marshes versus unvegetated tidal ponds along the mid-Atlantic coast, USA, with implications to waterbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R. Michael; Cahoon, Donald R.; Prosser, Diann J.; Sanders, Geoffrey; Hensel, Philippe

2006-01-01

Mid Atlantic coastal salt marshes contain a matrix of vegetation diversified by tidal pools, pannes, and creeks, providing habitats of varying importance to many species of breeding, migrating, and wintering waterbirds. We hypothesized that changes in marsh elevation were not sufficient to keep pace with those of sea level in both vegetated and unvegetated Spartina alterniflora sites at a number of mid lagoon marsh areas along the Atlantic coast. We also predicted that northern areas would suffer less of a deficit than would southern sites. Beginning in August 1998, we installed surface elevation tables at study sites on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, southern New Jersey, and two locations along Virginia's eastern shore. We compared these elevation changes over the 4-4.5 yr record with the long-term (> 50 yr) tidal records for each locale. We also collected data on waterbird use of these sites during all seasons of the year, based on ground surveys and replicated surveys from observation platforms. Three patterns of marsh elevation change were found. At Nauset Marsh, Cape Cod, the Spartina marsh surface tracked the pond surface, both keeping pace with regional sea-level rise rates. In New Jersey, the ponds are becoming deeper while marsh surface elevation remains unchanged from the initial reading. This may result in a submergence of the marsh in the future, assuming sea-level rise continues at current rates. Ponds at both Virginia sites are filling in, while marsh surface elevation rates do not seem to be keeping pace with local sea-level rise. An additional finding at all sites was that subsidence in the vegetated marsh surfaces was less than in unvegetated areas, reflecting the importance of the root mat in stabilizing sediments. The implications to migratory waterbirds are significant. Submergence of much of the lagoonal marsh area in Virginia and New Jersey over the next century could have major negative (i.e., flooding) effects on nesting populations of marsh-dependent seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus, saltmarsh sharp-tailed sparrows A. caudacutus, black rails Laterallus jamaicensis, clapper rails Rallus longirostris, Forster's terns Sterna forsteri, common terns Sterna hirundo, and gull-billed terns Sterna nilotica. Although short-term inundation of many lagoonal marshes may benefit some open-water feeding ducks, geese, and swans during winter, the long-term ecosystem effects may be detrimental, as wildlife resources will be lost or displaced. With the reduction in area of emergent marsh, estuarine secondary productivity and biotic diversity will also be reduced.

Study of sulfur bonding on gallium arsenide (100) surfaces using supercritical fluid extraction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cabauy, P.; Darici, Y.; Furton, K.G.

1995-12-01

In the last decades Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) has been considered the semiconductor that will replace silicon because of its direct band gap and high electron mobility. Problems with GaAs Fermi level pinning has halted its widespread use in the electronics industry. The formation of oxides on GaAs results in a high density of surface states that effectively pin the surface Fermi level at the midgap. Studies on sulfur passivation have eliminated oxidation and virtually unpinned the Fermi level on the GaAs surface. This has given rise to interest in sulfur-GaAs bonds. In this presentation, we will discuss the types ofmore » sulfur bonds extracted from a sulfur passivated GaAs (100) using Supercritical Fluid (CO2) Extraction (SFE). SFE can be a valuable tool in the study of chemical speciations on semiconductor surfaces. The variables evaluated to effectively study the sulfur species from the GaAs surface include passivation techniques, supercritical fluid temperatures, densities, and extraction times.« less

The Ocean and Climate: Results from the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. -L.

1995-01-01

Since 1992, the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite has been making altimetric sea surface observations with a sea level accuracy of 4.4 cm. This data can be used for studying regional and seasonal differences in sea level and for evaluating oceanic circulation models and tidal models. Longer term changes can also be studied, such as El Nino and overall sea level rising (although the latter is still within the margin of error).

An open-source textbook for teaching climate-related risk analysis using the R computing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, P. J.; Keller, K.

2015-12-01

Greenhouse gas emissions lead to increased surface air temperatures and sea level rise. In turn, sea level rise increases the risks of flooding for people living near the world's coastlines. Our own research on assessing sea level rise-related risks emphasizes both Earth science and statistics. At the same time, the free, open-source computing environment R is growing in popularity among statisticians and scientists due to its flexibility and graphics capabilities, as well as its large library of existing functions. We have developed a set of laboratory exercises that introduce students to the Earth science and statistical concepts needed for assessing the risks presented by climate change, particularly sea-level rise. These exercises will be published as a free, open-source textbook on the Web. Each exercise begins with a description of the Earth science and/or statistical concepts that the exercise teaches, with references to key journal articles where appropriate. Next, students are asked to examine in detail a piece of existing R code, and the exercise text provides a clear explanation of how the code works. Finally, students are asked to modify the existing code to produce a well-defined outcome. We discuss our experiences in developing the exercises over two separate semesters at Penn State, plus using R Markdown to interweave explanatory text with sample code and figures in the textbook.

Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE; Version 1.0): web-based tools to assess the impact of sea level rise in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn, Paul; Strong, David; Swain, Eric; Decker, Jeremy

2013-01-01

South Florida's Greater Everglades area is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, due to its rich endowment of animal and plant species and its heavily populated urban areas along the coast. Rising sea levels are expected to have substantial impacts on inland flooding, the depth and extent of surge from coastal storms, the degradation of water supplies by saltwater intrusion, and the integrity of plant and animal habitats. Planners and managers responsible for mitigating these impacts require advanced tools to help them more effectively identify areas at risk. The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE) Web site has been developed to address these needs by providing more convenient access to projections from models that forecast the effects of sea level rise on surface water and groundwater, the extent of surge and resulting economic losses from coastal storms, and the distribution of habitats. IMMAGE not only provides an advanced geographic information system (GIS) interface to support decision making, but also includes topic-based modules that explain and illustrate key concepts for nontechnical users. The purpose of this report is to familiarize both technical and nontechnical users with the IMMAGE Web site and its various applications.

Key parameters of the sediment surface morphodynamics in an estuary - An assessment of model solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2018-05-01

Large-scale geomorphological evolution of an estuarine system was simulated by means of a hybrid estuarine sedimentation model (HESM) applied to the Guadiana Estuary, in Southwest Iberia. The model simulates the decadal-scale morphodynamics of the system under environmental forcing, using a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters, constrained by empirical knowledge of estuarine sedimentary dynamics and topography. The key controlling parameters of the model are bed friction (f), current velocity power of the erosion rate function (N), and sea-level rise rate. An assessment of sensitivity of the simulated sediment surface elevation (SSE) change to these controlling parameters was performed. The model predicted the spatial differentiation of accretion and erosion, the latter especially marked in the mudflats within mean sea level and low tide level and accretion was mainly in a subtidal channel. The average SSE change mutually depended on both the friction coefficient and power of the current velocity. Analysis of the average annual SSE change suggests that the state of intertidal and subtidal compartments of the estuarine system vary differently according to the dominant processes (erosion and accretion). As the Guadiana estuarine system shows dominant erosional behaviour in the context of sea-level rise and sediment supply reduction after the closure of the Alqueva Dam, the most plausible sets of parameter values for the Guadiana Estuary are N = 1.8 and f = 0.8f0, or N = 2 and f = f0, where f0 is the empirically estimated value. For these sets of parameter values, the relative errors in SSE change did not exceed ±20% in 73% of simulation cells in the studied area. Such a limit of accuracy can be acceptable for an idealized modelling of coastal evolution in response to uncertain sea-level rise scenarios in the context of reduced sediment supply due to flow regulation. Therefore, the idealized but cost-effective HESM model will be suitable for estimating the morphological impacts of sea-level rise on estuarine systems on a decadal timescale.

The difference between the potentiometric surfaces of the Magothy Aquifer of September 1986 and September 1988 in southern Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Frederick K.; Andreasen, David C.; Curtin, Stephen E.; Wheeler, Judith C.

1990-01-01

A map was prepared that shows the net change in the potentiometric surface of the Magothy aquifer (in the Cretaceous Magothy Formation) in southern Maryland from the fall of 1986 to the fall of 1988. The map, based on water level measurements from 79 observation wells, shows that during the 2 year period the potentiometric surface declined less than 5 ft in most of the northern part of the study area and more than 10 ft in a 4-sq-mi area in northern Charles County. Net water-level rises of as much as 2 ft were measured in central Charles County. (USGS)

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Changes of the Oceanic Long-term and seasonal variation in a Global-warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Q.; He, Y.; Dong, C.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Gridded absolute dynamic topography (ADT) from AVISO and outputs of sea surface height above geoid from a series of climate models run for CMIP5 are used to analysis global sea level variation. Variance has been calculated to determine the magnitude of change in sea level variation over two decades. Increasing trend of variance of ADT suggests an enhanced fluctuation as well as geostrophic shear of global ocean. To further determine on what scale does the increasing fluctuation dominate, the global absolute dynamic topography (ADT) has been separated into two distinguished parts: the global five-year mean sea surface (MSS) and the residual absolute dynamic topography (RADT). Increased variance of MSS can be ascribed to the nonuniform rising of global sea level and an enhancement of ocean gyres in the Pacific Ocean. While trend in the variance of RADT is found to be close to zero which suggests an unchanged ocean mesoscale variability. The Gaussian-like distribution of global ADT are used to study the change in extreme sea levels. Information entropy has also been adapted in our study. Increasing trend of information entropy which measures the degree of dispersion of a probability distribution suggests more appearance of extreme sea levels. Extreme high sea levels are increasing with a higher growing rate than the mean sea level rise.

Watching the Blue Planet from Space over Recent Decades: What's up for Science and Society?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindstrom, Eric J.

2015-01-01

Since the first photographs of “Earth Rise” taken by the Apollo astronauts in the 1960s galvanized the environmental movement, imaging of our planet from low Earth orbit has grown more sophisticated and diverse. Satellite and astronaut observations and imagery of the changing ocean still have the power to galvanize oceanographers and society. So what are some of the key ideas for oceanography and society that come out of out recent decades of ocean observation from space? Satellite oceanography has made fundamental contributions to our understanding and estimation of changing sea level, winds and storminess over the oceans, primary productivity of the seas, the role of the ocean in the water cycle, and the changes in the ocean known as ocean acidification. Some of these phenomena interact in complex ways and Mother Nature hides the future well. However, some things are clear. Sea level rise has been monitored from space for more than 20 years and now we have a more nuanced understanding of regional variation in sea level rise and the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Wind vectors at the ocean surface have been measured for more than 2 decades and provide evidence for shifts in wind patterns that help, for example, explain some of the regional variations in sea level rise. Chlorophyll-a has been estimated in a multi-decadal record of observations and is being used to describe the shifts and trends in ocean primary productivity. Sea surface temperature estimation from space has records going back to the 1970s and provides critical information for the interaction of the ocean with the atmosphere. Sea surface salinity has been measured from space only within the last decade and provides a novel new view of regional, seasonal, and inter-annual changes in the ocean related to precipitation, river run-off, and eddy transport. Potential changes in the Earth’s water cycle have a huge societal impact.

The Fate and Stability of Eroding Wetland Soil Carbon in a Subsiding Deltaic Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. R.; Steinmuller, H.; Chambers, L. G.; Fontenot, A.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands can respond to rapid rates of relative sea level rise via wetland submergence and/or erosion, which occur when wetlands are unable to vertically accrete to keep pace with sea level rise. As coastal wetlands erode, previously sequestered organic carbon is exposed to oxygen-rich estuarine water. This transition in redox from anaerobic to aerobic condition can trigger increased mineralization rates of decades to centuries'-old soil carbon. Barataria Bay, Louisiana has one of the highest coastal wetland land loss rates in the United States, primarily due to eustatic sea level rise coupled with coastal subsidence. Marsh-edge erosion rates measured over the past two years are on the order of 1.5 meters per year. Meter long soil cores were obtained from vegetated wetland sites and sectioned into 11 intervals to investigate aerobic and anaerobic mineralization rates with depth. In surface soils, organic carbon mineralization rates averaged 16 times greater than anaerobic mineralization rates. In deeper, older soils, the aerobic mineralization rate was still an order of magnitude greater than the anaerobic rate, suggesting a significant portion of this older, soil carbon is readily cycling back to the atmosphere after erosion followed by mineralization by microorganisms. These results have consequences for increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the future, as stable coastlines worldwide will be subjected to Barataria-bay levels of sea level rise in the next 50-75 years.

Improving NOAA's NWLON Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guest, DeNeice C.

2010-01-01

This report assesses the benefit of incorporating NASA's OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission) altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NWLON (National Water Level Observation Network) DSS (Decision Support System). This data will enhance the NWLON DSS by providing additional inforrnation because not all stations collect all meteorological parameters (sea-surface height, ocean tides, wave height, and wind speed over waves). OSTM will also provide data where NWLON stations are not present. OSTM will provide data on seasurface heights for determining sea-level rise and ocean circulation. Researchers and operational users currently use satellite altimeter data products with the GSFCOO NASA data model to obtain sea-surface height and ocean circulation inforrnation. Accurate and tirnely inforrnation concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean currents is needed to irnprove coastal tidal predictions, tsunarni and storm surge warnings, and wetland restoration.

Global sea level trend in the past century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Hansen, J.

1982-01-01

Data derived from tide-gauge stations throughout the world indicate that the mean sea level rose by about 12 centimeters in the past century. The sea level change has a high correlation with the trend of global surface air temperature. A large part of the sea level rise can be accounted for in terms of the thermal expansion of the upper layers of the ocean. The results also represent weak indirect evidence for a net melting of the continental ice sheets.

Understanding Recent Trends in Freezing Level Height over the Tropical Andes Mountains of South America: An Investigation of Reanalysis Products and GEOSCCM Integrations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-12-01

As the global climate warms, the height of the 0°C isotherm - aka the freezing level height (FLH) - rises, especially over mountainous regions. Over the past few decades, FLH in the tropical Andes Mountains of South America has been rising at a rate that is 2 to 3 times faster than would be expected considering the zonally-averaged upper troposphere temperature trends and the recent cooling of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Rising FLH could have devastating impacts in this region where most of the dry season runoff comes from seasonal snow melt and glacial melt. Yet, is unclear why FLH is rising so rapidly in this particular area and what the quantitative implications will be for tropical Andean water resources. Reanalysis products tend to disagree on the spatial pattern and strength of FLH changes which confounds the issue by making it difficult to uncover the driving mechanisms of these local changes in FLH. Indeed, there are several possible factors that may be contributing to the unprecedented rise in FLH over the Andes (above and beyond the normally expected effects of greenhouse gases) of which the most likely actors are: changes in the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean, changes in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, shifts in the Hadley cell, indirect effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and recent recovery, and local thermodynamic land-atmosphere feedbacks. To better understand the changes in FLH, which will ultimately contribute to the effort to predict effects on Andean water resources, we analyze FLH in several forcing-separated integrations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). By separating out the various forcings (greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures, ozone depleting substances, volcanic eruptions, and solar fluctuations), we are able to develop hypotheses for mechanistic drivers of FLH changes which can be rigorously tested. These efforts will contribute to the understanding of climate change over the tropical Andes Mountains, and over South America more generally, while developing techniques and hypotheses that can be applied to the study of cryosphere environments in other mountainous regions.

Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

2013-12-01

Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study utilizes an upwelling diffusion energy balance model and focuses on the thermosteric part of sea-level rise. Example GSP results are 244, 15 and 278 for BC, CH4 and N2O for a time horizon of 100 years. Compare GWP and GTP values of 405, 24 and 288 as well as 62, 4.5 and 252. The main result of the study is that no climate forcer is in any absolute sense short lived when it comes to Sea Level impacts. All of the examined climate forcers have considerable influence on the thermosteric SLR, and the closely linked ocean heat content, on the time scale of centuries. The reason for this is that heat, once it has been induced by the climate drivers and warmed the surface ocean, is transported down into the slowly mixing oceans. References: Shindell, D. et al. Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335, 183-189 (2012). Bond, T. C. et al. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 5380-5552 (2013). Hu, A., Xu, Y., Tebaldi, C., Washington, W. M. & Ramanathan, V. Mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants slows sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change 3, 730-734 (2013).

On the derivation of specific yield and soil water retention characteristics in peatlands from rainfall, microrelief and water level data - Theory and Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmann, Ullrich; Bechtold, Michel

2016-04-01

Water level depth is one of the crucial state variables controlling the biogeochemical processes in peatlands. For flat soil surfaces, water level depth dynamics as response to boundary fluxes are primarily controlled by the water retention characteristics of the soil in and above the range of the water level fluctuations. For changing water levels, the difference of the integrals of two soil moisture profiles (ΔAsoil), of a lower and a upper water level, is equal to the amount of water received or released by the soil. Dividing ΔAsoil by the water level change, results into a variable that is known as specific yield (Sy). For water level changes approaching the soil surface, changes in soil water storage are small due to the thin unsaturated zone that remains. Consequentially, Sy values approach zero with an abrupt transition to 1 in case of inundation. However, on contrary, observed water level rises due to precipitation events at various locations showed increasing Sy values for water level changes at shallow depths (Sy = precipitation/water level change; Logsdon et al., 2010). The increase of Sy values can be attributed in large parts to the influence of the microrelief on water level changes in these wet landscapes that are characterized by a mosaic of inundated and non-inundated areas. Consequentially, water level changes are dampened by partial inundation. In this situation, total Sy is composed of a spatially-integrated below ground and above ground contribution. We provide a general one-dimensional expression that correctly represents the effect of a microrelief on the total Sy. The one-dimensional expression can be applied for any soil hydraulic parameterizations and soil surface elevation frequency distributions. We demonstrate that Sy is influenced by the microrelief not only when surface storage directly contributes to Sy by (partial) inundation but also when water levels are lower than the minimum surface elevation. With the derived one-dimensional expression we developed a novel approach for the in situ determination of soil water retention characteristics that is applicable to shallow groundwater systems. Our approach is built on two assumptions: i) for shallow groundwater systems with medium- to high conductive soils the soil moisture profile is always close to hydrostatic equilibrium and ii) over short time periods differences in total water storage due to lateral fluxes are negligible. Given these assumptions, the height of a water level rise due to a precipitation event mainly depends on the soil water retention characteristics, the precipitation amount, the initial water level depth and, if present, the microrelief. We use this dependency to determine water retention characteristics (van Genuchten parameter) by Bayesian inversion. Our results demonstrate that observations of water level rises, caused by precipitation events, contain sufficient information to constrain the water retention characteristics around two dip wells in a Sphagnum bog to plausible ranges. We discuss the possible biases that come along with our approach and point out the research that is needed to quantify their significance.

Nearshore morphology and late Quaternary geologic framework of the northern Monterey Bay Marine Sanctuary, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anima, R.J.; Eittreim, S.L.; Edwards, B.D.; Stevenson, A.J.

2002-01-01

A combination of side-scanning sonar and high-resolution seismic reflection data image seafloor bedrock exposures and erosional features across the nearshore shelf. Sediment-filled troughs incise the inner shelf rock exposures and tie directly to modern coastal streams. The resulting bedrock geometry can be related to its resistance to erosion. Comparison of the depth of the transgressive erosional surface to recently developed sea level curves suggests a period of slow sea level rise during the early stages of post-interglacial marine transgression. The slow rise of sea level suggests an erosional episode that limited the preservation of buried paleo-channels beyond 70 m water depth. Seafloor features suggest that localized faulting in the area may have influenced the morphology of bedrock exposures and the coastline. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Water-level trends and potentiometric surfaces in the Nacatoch Aquifer in northeastern and southwestern Arkansas and in the Tokio Aquifer in southwestern Arkansas, 2014–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodgers, Kirk D.

2017-09-20

The Nacatoch Sand in northeastern and southwestern Arkansas and the Tokio Formation in southwestern Arkansas are sources of groundwater for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and public use. Water-level altitudes measured in 51 wells completed in the Nacatoch Sand and 42 wells completed in the Tokio Formation during 2014 and 2015 were used to create potentiometric-surface maps of the two areas. Aquifers in the Nacatoch Sand and Tokio Formation are hereafter referred to as the Nacatoch aquifer and the Tokio aquifer, respectively.Potentiometric surfaces show that groundwater in the Nacatoch aquifer flows southeast toward the Mississippi River in northeastern Arkansas. Groundwater flow direction is towards the south and southeast in Hempstead, Little River, and Nevada Counties in southwestern Arkansas. An apparent cone of depression exists in southern Clark County and likely alters groundwater flow from a regional direction toward the depression.In southwestern Arkansas, potentiometric surfaces indicate that groundwater flow in the Tokio aquifer is towards the city of Hope. Northwest of Hope, an apparent cone of depression exists. In southwestern Pike, northwestern Nevada, and northeastern Hempstead Counties, an area of artesian flow (water levels are at or above land surface) exists.Water-level changes in wells were identified using two methods: (1) linear regression analysis of hydrographs from select wells with a minimum of 20 years of water-level data, and (2) a direct comparison between water-level measurements from 2008 and 2014–15 at each well. Of the six hydrographs analyzed in the Nacatoch aquifer, four indicated a decline in water levels. Compared to 2008 measurements, the largest rise in water levels was 35.14 feet (ft) in a well in Clark County, whereas the largest decline was 14.76 ft in a well in Nevada County, both located in southwestern Arkansas.Of the four hydrographs analyzed in the Tokio aquifer, one indicated a decline in water levels, while the others remained relatively unchanged. Compared to 2008 measurements, the largest rise in water levels was 21.34 ft in Hempstead County, and the largest water-level decline was 39.37 ft in Clark County. Although changes in water levels since 2008 are spatially varied; long-term trends indicate an overall decline in water levels in both aquifers.

Computing Risk to West Coast Intertidal Rocky Habitat due to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Compared to marshes, little information is available on the potential for rocky intertidal habitats to migrate upward in response to sea level rise (SLR). To address this gap, we utilized topobathy LiDAR digital elevation models (DEMs) downloaded from NOAA’s Digital Coast GIS data repository to estimate percent change in the area of rocky intertidal habitat in 10 cm increments with eustatic sea level rise. The analysis was conducted at the scale of the four Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW) ecoregions located along the continental west coast of the United States (CONUS). Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) map data were used to identify rocky shoreline. Such stretches of shoreline were extracted for each of the four ecoregions and buffered by 100 m to include the intertidal and evaluate the potential area for upland habitat migration. All available LiDAR topobathy DEMs from Digital Coast were extracted using the resulting polygons and two rasters were synthesized from the results, a 10 cm increment zone raster and a non-planimetric surface area raster for zonal summation. Current rocky intertidal non-planimetric surface areas for each ecoregion were computed between Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) and Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) levels established from published datum sheets for tidal stations central to each MEOW ecoregion. Percent change in non-planimetric surface area for the same relative ranges were calculated in 10 cm incremental steps of eustatic S

Method for producing functionally graded nanocrystalline layer on metal surface

DOEpatents

Ajayi, Oyelayo O.; Hershberger, Jeffrey G.

2010-03-23

An improved process for the creation or formation of nanocrystalline layers on substrates' surfaces is provided. The process involves "prescuffing" the surface of a substrate such as a metal by allowing friction to occur on the surface by a load-bearing entity making rubbing contact and moving along and on the substrate's surface. The "prescuffing" action is terminated when the coefficient of friction between the surface and the noise is rising significantly. Often, the significant rise in the coefficient of friction is signaled by a change in pitch of the scuffing action sound emanating from the buffeted surface. The "prescuffing" gives rise to a harder and smoother surface which withstands better any inadequate lubrication that may take place when the "prescuffed" surface is contacted by other surfaces.

Impacts of seawater rise on seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta Aquifer, Egypt.

PubMed

Sefelnasr, Ahmed; Sherif, Mohsen

2014-01-01

Several investigations have recently considered the possible impacts of climate change and seawater level rise on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. All have revealed the severity of the problem and the significance of the landward movement of the dispersion zone under the condition of seawater level rise. Most of the studies did not consider the possible effects of the seawater rise on the inland movement of the shoreline and the associate changes in the boundary conditions at the seaside and the domain geometry. Such effects become more evident in flat, low land, coastal alluvial plans where large areas might be submerged with seawater under a relatively small increase in the seawater level. None of the studies combined the effect of increased groundwater pumping, due to the possible decline in precipitation and shortage in surface water resources, with the expected landward shift of the shore line. In this article, the possible effects of seawater level rise in the Mediterranean Sea on the seawater intrusion problem in the Nile Delta Aquifer are investigated using FEFLOW. The simulations are conducted in horizontal view while considering the effect of the shoreline landward shift using digital elevation models. In addition to the basic run (current conditions), six different scenarios are considered. Scenarios one, two, and three assume a 0.5 m seawater rise while the total pumping is reduced by 50%, maintained as per the current conditions and doubled, respectively. Scenarios four, five, and six assume a 1.0 m seawater rise and the total pumping is changed as in the first three scenarios. The shoreline is moved to account for the seawater rise and hence the study domain and the seaside boundary are modified accordingly. It is concluded that, large areas in the coastal zone of the Nile Delta will be submerged by seawater and the coast line will shift landward by several kilometers in the eastern and western sides of the Delta. Scenario six represents the worst case under which the volume of freshwater will be reduced to about 513 km(3) (billion m(3) ). © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

Holocene palaeoDEMs for lowland coastal and delta plain landscape reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Kim M.; Koster, Kay; Pierik, Harm-Jan; Van der Meulen, Bas; Hijma, Marc; Schokker, Jeroen; Stafleu, Jan

2017-04-01

Geological mapping of Holocene deposits of coastal plains, such as that of The Netherlands can reach high resolution (dense population, diverse applied usage) and good time control (14C dating, archaeology). The next step is then to create time sliced reconstructions for stages in the Holocene, peeling of the subrecent and exposing past relief situation. This includes winding back the history of sea-level rise and delta progradation etc. etc. So far, this has mainly be done as 2D series of landscape maps, or as sea-level curve age-depth plots. In the last decade, academic and applied projects at Utrecht University, TNO Geological Survey of The Netherlands and Deltares have developed palaeoDEMs for the Dutch low lands, that are a third main way of showing coastal plain evolution. Importantly, we produce two types of palaeoDEMs: (1) geological surface mapping using deposit contacts from borehole descriptions (and scripted 3D processing techniques - e.g. Van der Meulen et al. 2013) and (2) palaeogroundwater surfaces, using sea-level and inland water-level index-points (and 3D kriging interpolations - e.g. Koster et al. 2016). The applications for the combined palaeoDEMs range from relative sea-level rise mapping and assessment of variation in rate of GIA across the coastal plain, to quantification of soft soil deformation, to analysis of pre-embankment extreme flood levels. Koster, K., Stafleu, J., & Cohen, K.M. (2016). Generic 3D interpolation of Holocene base-level rise and provision of accommodation space, developed for the Netherlands coastal plain and infilled palaeovalleys. Basin Research. DOI 10.1111/bre.12202 Van der Meulen, M.J., Doornenbal, J.C., Gunnink, J.L., Stafleu, J., Schokker, J., Vernes, R.W., Van Geer, F.C., Van Gessel, S.F., Van Heteren, S., Van Leeuwen, R.J.W. & Bakker, M.A.J. (2013). 3D geology in a 2D country: perspectives for geological surveying in the Netherlands. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 92, 217-241. DOI 10.1017/S0016774600000184

Using high-resolution HiRISE digital elevation models to study early activity in polar regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portyankina, G.; Pommerol, A.; Aye, K.; Thomas, N.; Mattson, S.; Hansen, C. J.

2013-12-01

Martian polar areas are known for their very dynamic seasonal activity. It is believed that many observed seasonal phenomena here (cold CO2 jets, seasonal ice cracks, fan deposits, blotches) are produced by spring sublimation of CO2 slab ice. The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) has exceptional capabilities to image polar areas at times when surface processes there are most active, i.e. in early local spring. HiRISE data can be also used to create digital elevation models (DEMs) of the martian surface if two images with similar lighting but different observation geometry are available. Polar areas pose some specific problems in this because of the oblique illumination conditions and seasonally changing ice cover. Nevertheless, HiRISE DEMs with spatial resolution up to 1 meter were produced for a few polar locations with active spring sublimation. These DEMs improve our ability to directly compare observations from different local times, sols, seasons and martian years. These observations may now be orthorectified by projecting them onto the well-defined topography thus eliminating the ambiguities of different observational geometries. In addition, the DEM can serve as a link between the observations and models of seasonal activity. Observations of martian polar areas in springs of multiple martian years have led to the hypothesis that meter-scale topography is triggering the activity in early spring. Solar energy input is critical for the timing of spring activity. In this context, variations of surface inclination are important especially in early spring, when orientation towards the sun is one of critical parameters determining the level of solar energy input, the amount of CO2 sublimation, and hence the level of any activity connected to it. In the present study existing DEMs of two polar locations serve as model terrains to test the previously proposed hypothesis of early initialization of CO2 activity by solar illumination. We use the NAIF SPICE system to calculate precise energy input to each surface facet accounting for their slope and aspect orientation and shadowing by neighbor terrains. We show that the energy distribution over the surface is highly heterogeneous and maximized on the sides of the channels and other small topographical features. Our study supports the hypothesis that solar energy input in polar areas in spring is directly related to the activity observed.

Planning of water resources management and pollution control for Heshui River watershed, China: A full credibility-constrained programming approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Y M; Huang, G; Lu, H W; He, Li

2015-08-15

A key issue facing integrated water resources management and water pollution control is to address the vague parametric information. A full credibility-based chance-constrained programming (FCCP) method is thus developed by introducing the new concept of credibility into the modeling framework. FCCP can deal with fuzzy parameters appearing concurrently in the objective and both sides of the constraints of the model, but also provide a credibility level indicating how much confidence one can believe the optimal modeling solutions. The method is applied to Heshui River watershed in the south-central China for demonstration. Results from the case study showed that groundwater would make up for the water shortage in terms of the shrinking surface water and rising water demand, and the optimized total pumpage of groundwater from both alluvial and karst aquifers would exceed 90% of its maximum allowable levels when credibility level is higher than or equal to 0.9. It is also indicated that an increase in credibility level would induce a reduction in cost for surface water acquisition, a rise in cost from groundwater withdrawal, and negligible variation in cost for water pollution control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of specific pathways to 1.5°C global warming on the contribution of Greenland to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbert, A.; Rückamp, M.; Falk, U.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Here, we estimate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change in terms of different emission scenarios. We investigate the effect of different pathways of global warming on the dynamics and mass balance of the GrIS with a focus on scenarios in line with limiting global warming to 2.0° or even 1.5° by the end of 2100 (Paris Agreement). We particularly address the issue of peak and decline scenarios temporarily exceeding a given temperature limit. This kind of overshooting might have strong effects on the evolution of the GrIS. Furthermore, we investigate the long-term effects of different levels of climate change to estimate the threshold for stabilizing the GrIS. For modeling the flow dynamics and future evolution of the GrIS, we apply the thermo-mechanical coupled Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The model is forced with anomalies for temperature and surface mass balance derived from different GCM data from the CMIP5 RCP2.6 scenario provided from the ISIMIP2b project. In order to obtain these anomalies from the GCM data, a surface energy balance model is applied.

Potentiometric Surface of the Upper Floridan Aquifer, West-Central Florida, May 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, A.G.

2007-01-01

Introduction Hydrologic Conditions in West-Central Florida The Floridan aquifer system consists of the Upper and Lower Floridan aquifers separated by the middle confining unit. The middle confining unit and the Lower Floridan aquifer in west-central Florida generally contain highly mineralized water. The water-bearing units containing fresh water are herein referred to as the Upper Floridan aquifer. The Upper Floridan aquifer is the principal source of water in the Southwest Florida Water Management District and is used for major public supply, domestic use, irrigation, and brackish water desalination in coastal communities (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2000). This map report shows the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer measured in May 2006. The potentiometric surface is an imaginary surface connecting points of equal altitude to which water will rise in tightly-cased wells that tap a confined aquifer system (Lohman, 1979). This map represents water-level conditions near the end of the dry season, when ground-water levels usually are at an annual low and withdrawals for agricultural use typically are high. The cumulative average rainfall of 50.23 inches for west-central Florida (from June 2005 through May 2006) was 2.82 inches below the historical cumulative average of 53.05 inches (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2006). Historical cumulative averages are calculated from regional rainfall summary reports (1915 to most recent complete calendar year) and are updated monthly by the Southwest Florida Water Management District. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Southwest Florida Water Management District, is part of a semi-annual series of Upper Floridan aquifer potentiometric-surface map reports for west-central Florida. Potentiometric-surface maps have been prepared for January 1964, May 1969, May 1971, May 1973, May 1974, and for each May and September since 1975. Water-level data are collected in May and September each year to show the approximate annual low and high water-level conditions, respectively. Most of the water-level data for this map were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during the period May 15-19, 2006. Supplemental water-level data were collected by other agencies and companies. A corresponding potentiometric-surface map was prepared for areas east and north of the Southwest Florida Water Management District boundary by the U.S. Geological Survey office in Altamonte Springs, Florida (Kinnaman, 2006). Most water-level measurements were made during a 5-day period; therefore, measurements do not represent a 'snapshot' of conditions at a specific time, nor do they necessarily coincide with the seasonal low water-level condition. Water-Level Changes Water levels in about 95 percent of the wells measured in May 2006 were lower than the May 2005 water levels (Ortiz and Blanchard, 2006). May 2006 water levels in 403 wells ranged from about 26 feet below to about 6 feet above May 2005 water levels (fig. 1). Significant water level declines occurred in eastern Manatee County, southwestern Polk County, southeastern Hillsborough County, and in all of Hardee County. The largest water level declines occurred in southwestern Hardee County. The largest water level rises occurred in south-central Pasco County, northeastern Levy County, northwestern Marion County, and along the gulf coast from Pasco County to Citrus County (fig. 1). Water levels in about 96 percent of the wells measured in May 2006 were lower than the September 2005 water levels (Ortiz, 2006). May 2006 water levels in 397 wells ranged from about 31 feet below to 3 feet above the September 2005 water levels. The largest water level decline was in west-central Hardee County and the largest rise in water levels was in south-central Pasco County.

Experimental measurements of the ground cloud effluents and cloud growth for the May 20, 1975, Titan 3C launch at Air Force Eastern Test Range, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, G. L.; Storey, R. W., Jr.

1977-01-01

The experiment included surface level and airborne in situ cloud measurements of the exhaust effluents from the Titan IIIC solid rocket boosters. Simultaneous visible spectrum photographic pictures of the ground cloud as well as infrared imaging of the cloud were obtained to study the cloud rise, growth, and direction of travel within the earth's surface mixing layer. The NASA multilayer diffusion model predictions of cloud growth, direction of travel, and expected surface level effluent concentrations were made prior to launch and after launch using measured meteorological conditions. Prelaunch predictions were used to position the effluent monitoring instruments, and the postlaunch predictions were compared with the measured data. Measurement results showed that surface level effluent values were low, often below the detection limits of the instrumentation. The maximum surface level hydrogen chloride concentration measured 50 parts per billion at about 8 km from the launch pad. The maximum observed in-cloud (airborne measurement) hydrogen chloride concentration was 7 per million.

THE PATHOGENESIS OF HYPERLIPEMIA INDUCED BY MEANS OF SURFACE-ACTIVE AGENTS

PubMed Central

Hirsch, Robert L.; Kellner, Aaron

1956-01-01

Rabbits subjected to subtotal hepatectomy failed to develop increased serum cholesterol levels following parenteral injection of triton WR 1339, the finding indicating that the liver is essential for the establishment of the hypercholesterolemia induced by surface-active agents. The cholesterol content of the livers of rabbits rendered hyperlipemic by means of triton remained unchanged both during the rapid rise of the serum cholesterol levels and during the return to normal values. By contrast, the cholesterol content of the livers of rabbits fed cholesterol rose progressively over a period of 5 weeks, concommittant with the increase in serum cholesterol levels. The findings provide support for the hypothesis that surface-active agents bring about hyperlipemia by altering the circulating lipoproteins in some manner so that they are retained in the circulating body fluids. PMID:13332177

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Payne, Antony J.; Howat, Ian M.; Smith, Benjamin E.

2011-01-01

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing. PMID:21576500

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E

2011-05-31

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

Observation of a well-defined hybridization gap and in-gap states on the SmB6 (001) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhixiang; Maldonado, Ana; Paz, Wendel S.; Inosov, Dmytro S.; Schnyder, Andreas P.; Palacios, J. J.; Shitsevalova, Natalya Yu.; Filipov, Vladimir B.; Wahl, Peter

2018-06-01

The rise of topology in condensed-matter physics has generated strong interest in identifying novel quantum materials in which topological protection is driven by electronic correlations. Samarium hexaboride is a Kondo insulator for which it has been proposed that a band inversion between 5 d and 4 f bands gives rise to topologically protected surface states. However, unambiguous proof of the existence and topological nature of these surface states is still missing, and its low-energy electronic structure is still not fully established. Here we present a study of samarium hexaboride by ultralow-temperature scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy. We obtain clear atomically resolved topographic images of the sample surface. Our tunneling spectra reveal signatures of a hybridization gap with a size of about 8 meV and with a reduction of the differential conductance inside the gap by almost half, and surprisingly, several strong resonances below the Fermi level. The spatial variations of the energy of the resonances point toward a microscopic variation of the electronic states by the different surface terminations. High-resolution tunneling spectra acquired at 100 mK reveal a splitting of the Kondo resonance, possibly due to the crystal electric field.

Determination of antibody response to influenza virus surface glycoproteins by kinetic enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

PubMed Central

Snyder, M H; Banks, S; Murphy, B R

1988-01-01

We modified an existing enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to be able to use new spectrophotometers which can measure the rate of color development in microtiter wells. This new kinetic-based ELISA (KELISA) required only a single dilution of specimen rather than the multiple dilutions required with endpoint ELISA. In addition, 10- to 100-fold-less specimen was required to perform the KELISA than the ELISA. The level of serum or nasal wash antibody against surface glycoproteins of influenza A or influenza B viruses determined by KELISA was reproducible and correlated highly with the results of endpoint ELISA or hemagglutination inhibition tests. The difference between the KELISA rates, which indicated than an antibody response to infection had occurred, was defined and was analogous to a 2.2-fold rise in titer for serum and a 3.4-fold rise in titer for nasal wash determined by endpoint ELISA. The KELISA was similar to endpoint ELISAs in its ability to detect rises in antibody level in paired serum or nasal wash specimens obtained from volunteers who received live attenuated influenza A reassortant virus vaccines. By eliminating the need for multiple dilutions, the use of KELISA offers the advantage of increasing the number of assays that can be performed by the same personnel compared with endpoint ELISA, while it maintains sensitivity and specificity. PMID:3182992

The Cost of Concreteness: The Effect of Nonessential Information on Analogical Transfer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaminski, Jennifer A.; Sloutsky, Vladimir M.; Heckler, Andrew F.

2013-01-01

Most theories of analogical transfer focus on similarities between the learning and transfer domains, where transfer is more likely between domains that share common surface features, similar elements, or common interpretations of structure. We suggest that characteristics of the learning instantiation alone can give rise to different levels of…

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Gulf Coast

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

2010-01-01

Predicted climate changes in the Gulf Coast bioregion include increased air and sea surface temperatures, altered fire regimes and rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased hurricane intensity, and potential destruction of coastal wetlands and the species that reside within them. Prolonged drought conditions, storm...

A complex-systems approach to predicting effects of sea level rise and nitrogen loading on nitrogen cycling in coastal wetland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Laurel G.; Moseman, Serena; Santoro, Alyson; Hopfensperger, Kristine; Burgin, Amy

2010-01-01

To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need an improvedunderstanding of how tidal marsh ecosystem services will respond to sea-level rise and increased nitrogen (N) loading to coastal areas. Here we review existing literature to better understand how these interacting perturbations s will likely impact N removal by tidal marshes. We propose that the keyy factors controlling long-term changes in N removal are plant-community changes, soil accretion rates, surface-subsurface flow paths, marsh geomorphology microbial communities, and substrates for microbial reactions. Feedbacks affecting relative elevations and sediment accretion ratess will serve as dominant controls on future N removal throughout the marsh. Given marsh persistence, we hypothesize that the processes dominating N removal will vary laterally across the marsh and longitudinallyalong the estuarine gradient. In salt marsh interiors, where nitrate reduction rates are often limited by delivery of nitrate to bacterial communities, reductions in groundwater discharge due to sea level rise may trigger a net reduction in N removal. In freshwater marshes, we expect a decreasee in N removal efficiency due to increased sulfide concentrations. Sulfide encroachment will increase the relative importance of dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium and lead to greater bacterial nitrogen immobilization, ultimately resulting in an ecosystem that retains more N and is less effective at permanent N removal from the watershed. In contrast, we predict that sealevel–driven expansion of the tidal creek network and the degree of surface-subsurface exchange flux through tidal creek banks will result in greater N-removal efficiency from these locations.

Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.

2014-02-01

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions.

Effects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics: ecohydrological implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Thieler, E. Robert; Gesch, Dean B.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2014-01-01

We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater response to island morphology by evaluating changes at three sites. This interdependence can have a profound effect on ecosystem composition in these fragile coastal landscapes under long-term changing climatic conditions.

Informatics and computational method for inundation and land use study in Arctic Sea eastern Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, Mukesh Singh; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Sugimoto, Atsuko

2016-11-01

Eastern Siberia, Russia is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated Arctic sea level rise due to low topography, high ecological value, harsh climatic conditions, erosion and flooding of coastal area and destruction of harbor constructions and natural coastal hazards. A 1 to 10m inundation land loss scenarios for surface water and sea level rise (SLR) were developed using digital elevation models of study site topography through remote sensing and GIS techniques by ASTER GDEM and Landsat OLI data. Results indicate that 10.82% (8072.70km2) and 29.73% (22181.19km2) of the area will be lost by flooding at minimum and maximum inundation levels, respectively. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the vegetation, wetland and the natural ecosystem. Improved understanding of the extent and response of SLR will help in preparing for mitigation and adaptation.

Late cenozoic fluvial stratigraphy of the New Jersey piedmont: A record of glacioeustasy, planation, and incision on a low-relief passive margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanford, S.D.; Ashley, G.M.; Brenner, G.J.

2001-01-01

Late Cenozoic fluvial deposits and erosional landforms in the New Jersey Piedmont record two episodes of valley incision, one in the Late Miocene and one in the Early Pleistocene, separated by periods of planation and fluvial deposition. The upland erosion surface and a fluvial gravel are the remnants of a low-relief Late Miocene landscape. Late Miocene incision was followed by deposition of a fluvial plain and cutting of straths in the Pliocene. Early Pleistocene incision produced the present valleys, which contain Middle to Late Pleistocene fluvial deposits. The two incisions correspond to permanent glacioeustatic lowering during expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Middle to Late Miocene and development of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in the Late Pliocene. Bordering Coastal Plain marine deposits indicate that the upland erosion surface was formed during a rising sea-level trend between the Late Oligocene and Middle Miocene. The Pliocene plain and straths formed during a period of rising sea level in the Early Pliocene. The stratigraphic record indicates that the oldest preserved landforms are no older than Late Miocene, that landscape planation in coastal regions of low-relief passive margins can be achieved in <20 m.yr., and that these surfaces can be incised and dissected in <5 m.yr.

Pacific Dictates Droughts and Drenchings

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-01-30

The latest remote sensing data from NASA's Jason satellite show that the equatorial Pacific sea surface levels are higher, indicating warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and west Pacific Ocean. This pattern has the appearance of La Niña rather than El Niño. This contrasts with the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and U.S. West Coast where lower-than-normal sea surface levels and cool ocean temperatures continue (indicated by blue and purple areas). The image above is a global map of sea surface height, accurate to within 30 millimeters. The image represents data collected and composited over a 10-day period, ending on Jan 23, 2004. The height of the water relates to the temperature of the water. As the ocean warms, its level rises; and as it cools, its level falls. Yellow and red areas indicate where the waters are relatively warmer and have expanded above sea level, green indicates near normal sea level, and blue and purple areas show where the waters are relatively colder and the surface is lower than sea level. The blue areas are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal, whereas the purple areas range from 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA05071

Recent Rise in West Greenland Surface Melt and Firn Density Driven by North Atlantic SSTs and Blocking Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Graeter, K.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Lewis, G.; Birkel, S. D.; Meehan, T.; McCarthy, F.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since at least the early 2000s, mostly due to enhanced surface melt. Approximately 40% of the surface melt currently generated on the GrIS percolates into the snow/firn and refreezes, where it has no immediate impact on GrIS mass balance or sea-level rise. However, in situ observations of surface melt are sparse, and thus it remains unclear how melt water percolation and refreezing are modifying the GrIS percolation zone under recent warming. In addition, understanding the climatic drivers behind the recent increase in melt is critical for accurately predicting future GrIS surface melt rates and contributions to sea-level rise. Here we show that there have been significant increases in melt refreeze and firn density over the past 30-50 years along a 250 km-long region of the Western Greenland percolation zone (2137 - 2218 m elevation). We collected seven shallow firn cores as part of the 2016 Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS), analyzed each for melt layer stratigraphy and density, and developed timescales for each based on annual layer counting of seasonal chemical oscillations (e.g. δ18O, dust, and biogenic sulfur). The cores indicate that refrozen melt layers have increased 2- to 9-fold since 1970, with statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear trends at the five southernmost core sites. Comparisons of two GreenTrACS cores to co-located PARCA cores collected in 1998 reveal significant (p < 0.05) increases in density averaged over the top 10 m of firn ranging from 32-42 kg/m3. Recent density increases closely correspond with the locations of refrozen melt water. We use output from the MARv3.7 Regional Climate Model to assess climatic forcing of surface melt at GreenTrACS sites, and find significant summer-to-summer correlations between melt generation and the frequency of blocking high pressure centers over Greenland (represented by the Greenland Blocking Index; GBI), and with North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). Thus, future surface melt rates in Western Greenland depend on the complex evolution of the GBI and AMO under anthropogenic forcing, both of which remain poorly constrained in 21st century model projections.

R W Wood's Experiment Done Right - A Laboratory Demonstration of the Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halpern, J. B.

2016-12-01

It would not be exaggerating to say that R. W. Wood was the most respected experimental optical physicist of his time. Thus the null result of his attempt to demonstrate the greenhouse effect by comparing temperature rise in illuminated cylinders with glass or rock salt windows has echoed down through the years in climate science discussions both on the professional and public levels1. Today the web is full of videos purporting to demonstrate the greenhouse effect, but careful examination shows that they simply demonstrate heating via absorption of IR or NIR light by CO2. These experiments miss that the greenhouse effect is a result of the temperature difference between the surface and the upper troposphere as a result of which radiation from greenhouse molecules slows as the level rises. The average distance a photon emitted from a vibrationally excited CO2 molecule is about 10 m at the surface, increasing with altitude until at about 8 km the mean free path allows for radiation to space. Increasing CO2 concentrations raises this level to a higher one, which is colder, and at which the rate of radiation to space decreases. Emitting the same amount of radiation to space as before requires heating the entire system including the surface. To model the greenhouse effect we have used a 22 L bulb with a capsule heater in the center. The temperature near the heater (the surface) or above it can be monitored using a thermocouple and the CO2 mixing ratio determined using a NDIR sensor. By controlling the CO2 concentration in the bulb, the mean free path of re-radiated photons from CO2 can be controlled so that it much smaller than the bulb's diameter. We have measure rises in temperature both near the heater and at a distance from it as CO2is introduced, demonstrating the greenhouse effect. 1. R.W. Wood, London, Edinborough and Dublin Philosophical Magazine , 1909, 17, p319-320 also http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/wood_rw.1909.html

Effects of ocean acidification on the dissolution rates of reef-coral skeletons.

PubMed

van Woesik, Robert; van Woesik, Kelly; van Woesik, Liana; van Woesik, Sandra

2013-01-01

Ocean acidification threatens the foundation of tropical coral reefs. This study investigated three aspects of ocean acidification: (i) the rates at which perforate and imperforate coral-colony skeletons passively dissolve when pH is 7.8, which is predicted to occur globally by 2100, (ii) the rates of passive dissolution of corals with respect to coral-colony surface areas, and (iii) the comparative rates of a vertical reef-growth model, incorporating passive dissolution rates, and predicted sea-level rise. By 2100, when the ocean pH is expected to be 7.8, perforate Montipora coral skeletons will lose on average 15 kg CaCO3 m(-2) y(-1), which is approximately -10.5 mm of vertical reduction of reef framework per year. This rate of passive dissolution is higher than the average rate of reef growth over the last several millennia and suggests that reefs composed of perforate Montipora coral skeletons will have trouble keeping up with sea-level rise under ocean acidification. Reefs composed of primarily imperforate coral skeletons will not likely dissolve as rapidly, but our model shows they will also have trouble keeping up with sea-level rise by 2050.

Potentiometric surface of the Magothy aquifer in southern Maryland, September 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2001-01-01

This report presents a map showing the change in the potentiometric surface of the Lower Patapsco aquifer in the Lower Patapsco Formation of Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland for September 1990 and September 1999. The map, based on water?level measurements in 52 wells, shows that the change of the potentiometric surface during the 9- year period ranged from a rise of 13 feet at Indian Head and 6 feet near the outcrop area in Glen Burnie, to declines of 34 feet at Arnold, 30 feet at Waldorf, and 24 feet at Morgantown.

Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

2008-02-01

Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

2015 Groundwater Monitoring Report Project Shoal Area: Subsurface Correction Unit 447

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Findlay, Rick

The Project Shoal Area in Nevada was the site of a 12-kiloton-yield underground nuclear test in 1963. Although the surface of the site has been remediated, investigation of groundwater contamination resulting from the test is still in the corrective action process. Annual sampling and hydraulic head monitoring are conducted at the site as part of the subsurface corrective action strategy. The corrective action strategy is currently focused on revising the site conceptual model (SCM) and evaluating the adequacy of the monitoring well network. Some aspects of the SCM are known; however, two major concerns are the uncertainty in the groundwatermore » flow direction and the cause of rising water levels in site wells west of the shear zone. Water levels have been rising in the site wells west of the shear zone since the first hydrologic characterization wells were installed in 1996. Although water levels in wells west of the shear zone continue to rise, the rate of increase is less than in previous years. The SCM will be revised, and an evaluation of the groundwater monitoring network will be conducted when water levels at the site have stabilized to the agreement of both the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management and the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection.« less

Are Tide Gauges Useful Recorders of Relative Sea-Level Rise in Large Deltaic Settings?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tornqvist, T. E.; Keogh, M.; Jankowski, K. L.; Fernandes, A. M.

2016-12-01

It has long been recognized that the world's largest deltas that often host major population centers are particularly vulnerable to accelerating rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Traditionally, tide-gauge records are used to obtain quantitative data on rates of RSLR, given that they are perceived to capture the rise of the sea surface as well as land subsidence which is often substantial in deltaic settings. We argue here that tide gauges in such settings often provide ambiguous data because they ultimately measure RSLR with respect to a benchmark that is typically anchored tens of meters below the land surface. This is problematic because the prime target of interest is usually the rate of RSLR with respect to the delta top. We illustrate this problem with newly obtained rod surface elevation table - marker horizon (RSET-MH) data from the Mississippi Delta (n=185) that show that total subsidence is dominated by shallow subsidence in the uppermost 5-10 m. Since benchmarks in this region are anchored at 20 m depth on average, tide-gauge records by definition do not capture this important (and often even dominant) component of total subsidence, and thus underestimate RSLR by a considerable amount. We show how RSET-MH data, combined with GPS and satellite altimetry data, enable us to bypass this problem. Present-day rates of RSLR in the Mississippi Delta are 13±9 mm/yr, considerably higher than numbers reported in recent studies based on tide-gauge analysis. It seems unlikely that this problem is unique to the Mississippi Delta, so we argue that the approach to RSLR measurements in large deltas across the planet needs rethinking.

Monitoring Rates of Subsidence and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones: A New Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tornqvist, T. E.; Jankowski, K. L.; Fernandes, A. M.; Keogh, M.; Nienhuis, J.

2017-12-01

Low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs) that often host large population centers are particularly vulnerable to accelerating rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Traditionally, tide-gauge records are used to obtain quantitative data on rates of RSLR, given that they are perceived to capture the rise of the sea surface, as well as land subsidence which is often substantial in such settings. We argue here that tide gauges in LECZs often provide ambiguous data because they ultimately measure RSLR with respect to a benchmark that is typically anchored tens of meters deep. This is problematic because the prime target of interest is usually the rate of RSLR with respect to the land surface. We illustrate this problem with newly obtained rod surface elevation table - marker horizon (RSET-MH) data from coastal Louisiana (n = 274) that show that shallow subsidence in the uppermost 5-10 m accounts for 60-85% of total subsidence. Since benchmarks in this region are anchored at 23 m depth on average, tide-gauge records by definition do not capture this important process and thus underestimate RSLR by a considerable amount. We show how RSET-MH data, combined with GPS and satellite altimetry data, enable us to bypass this problem. Rates of RSLR in coastal Louisiana over the past 6-10 years are 12 ± 8 mm/yr, considerably higher than numbers reported in recent studies based on tide-gauge analysis. Subsidence rates, averaged across this region, total about 9 mm/yr. It is likely that the problems with tide-gauge data are not unique to coastal Louisiana, so we suggest that our new approach to RSLR measurements may be useful in LECZs worldwide, with considerable implications for metropolitan areas like New Orleans that are located within such settings.

Water Levels and Selected Water-Quality Conditions in the Sparta-Memphis Aquifer (Middle Claiborne Aquifer) in Arkansas, Spring-Summer 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schrader, T.P.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Geological Survey has monitored water levels in the Sparta Sand of Claiborne Group and Memphis Sand of Claiborne Group (herein referred to as the Sparta Sand and the Memphis Sand, respectively), since the 1920s. Groundwater withdrawals have increased while water levels have declined since monitoring was initiated. Herein, aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand will be referred to as the Sparta-Memphis aquifer throughout Arkansas. During the spring of 2007, 309 water levels were measured in wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. During the summer of 2007, 129 water-quality samples were collected and measured for temperature and specific conductance and 102 were collected and analyzed for chloride from wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. Water-level measurements collected in wells screened in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer were used to produce a regional potentiometric-surface map. The regional direction of groundwater flow in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer is generally to the south-southeast in the northern half of Arkansas and to the east and south in the southern half of Arkansas, away from the outcrop area except where affected by large ground-water withdrawals. The highest water-level altitude measured in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer was 326 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, located in Grant County in the outcrop at the western boundary of the study area; the lowest water-level altitude was 161 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in Union County near the southern boundary of the study area. Eight cones of depression (generally represented by closed contours) are located in the following counties: Bradley, Drew, and Ashley; Calhoun; Cleveland; Columbia; Crittenden; Arkansas, Jefferson, and Lincoln; Cross and Poinsett; and Union. Two large depressions are shown on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map, centered in Jefferson and Union Counties, as a result of large withdrawals for industrial and public supplies. The depression centered in Jefferson County deepened and expanded in recent years into Arkansas and Prairie Counties as a result of large withdrawals for irrigation and public supply. The area enclosed within the 40-foot contour has expanded on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map when compared with the 2005 potentiometric-surface map. In 2003, the depression in Union County was elongated east and west and beginning to coalesce with the depression in Columbia County. The deepest measurement during 2007 in the center of the depression in Union County has risen 38 feet since 2003. The area enclosed by the deepest contour, 160 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map is less than 10 percent of the area on the 2005 potentiometric-surface map. A broad depression in western Poinsett and Cross Counties was first shown in the 1995 potentiometric-surface map caused by withdrawals for irrigation extending north to the Poinsett-Craighead County line, and south into Cross County. A water-level difference map was constructed using the difference between water-level measurements made during 2003 and 2007 from 283 wells. The difference in water level between 2003 and 2007 ranged from -49.8 to 60.0 feet. Areas with a general rise in water levels are shown in northern Arkansas, Columbia, southern Jefferson, and most of Union Counties. In the area around west-central Union County, water levels rose as much as 60.0 feet with water levels in 15 wells rising 20 feet or more, which is an average annual rise of 5 feet or more. Water levels generally declined throughout most of the rest of Arkansas. Hydrographs from 157 wells were constructed with a minimum of 25 years of water-level measurements. During the period 1983-2007, the county mean annual water level rose in Calhoun, Columbia, Hot Spring, and Lafayette Counties. Mean an

Eddy energy and shelf interactions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohlmann, J. Carter; Niiler, P. Peter; Fox, Chad A.; Leben, Robert R.

2001-02-01

Sea surface height anomaly data from satellite are continuously available for the entire Gulf of Mexico. Surface current velocities derived from these remotely sensed data are compared with surface velocities from drifting buoys. The comparison shows that satellite altimetry does an excellent job resolving gulf eddies over the shelf rise (depths between ˜200 and 2000 m) if the proper length scale is used. Correlations between altimeter- and drifter-derived velocities are statistically significant (r>0.5) when the surface slope is computed over 125 km, indicating that remotely sensed sea surface height anomaly data can be used to aid the understanding of circulation over the shelf rise. Velocity variance over the shelf rise from the altimetry data shows regions of pronounced eddy energy south of the Mississippi outflow, south of the Texas-Louisiana shelf, and in the northwest and northeast corners of the gulf. These are the same locations where surface drifters are most likely to cross the shelf rise, suggesting gulf eddies promote cross-shore flows. This is clearly exemplified with both warm and cold eddies. Finally, the contribution of gulf eddies and wind stress to changes in the mean circulation are compared. Results indicate that the eddy-generated vorticity flux to the mean flow is greater than the contribution from the surface wind stress curl, especially in the region of the Loop current and along the shelf rise base in the western gulf. Future modeling efforts must not neglect the role of eddies in driving gulf circulation over the shelf rise.

Fates, Budgets, and Health Implications of Macondo Spill Volatile Hydrocarbons in the Ocean and Atmosphere of the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leifer, I.; Barletta, B.; Blake, D. R.; Blake, N. J.; Bradley, E. S.; Meinardi, S.; Lehr, B.; Luyendyk, B. P.; Roberts, D. A.; Rowland, F. S.

2010-12-01

The Macondo Oil Spill released unprecedented oil and gas to the ocean, estimated at 63000 bbl/day, which dispersed and dissolved during rise (Technical Flow Rate Team Report, 2010); yet, most of the oil reached the sea surface as oil slicks that then evolved due to weathering and dispersant application (Mass Balance Report, 2010). Remote sensing (near infrared imaging spectrometry) allowed quantification of thick surface oil, values of which were incorporated into an overall oil budget calculation. Remote sensing data, atmospheric samples, and numerical modeling, strongly suggest significant volatile loss during rise, yet measured atmospheric concentrations were high. Scaling atmospheric measurements to the total oil spill implies very high, extensive, and persistent levels of atmospheric petroleum hydrocarbon exposure with strong health implications to on-site workers and to coastal residents from wind advection.

Pulse-Shape Analysis of Ionization Signals in Cryogenic Ge Detectors for Dark Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, N.; Broniatowski, A.; Eitel, K.; Marnieros, S.; Paul, B.; Piro, M.-C.; Siebenborn, B.

2016-08-01

The detectors of the direct dark matter search experiment EDELWEISS consist of high-purity germanium crystals operated at cryogenic temperatures (mathrm {{<}20 mK}) and low electric fields (mathrm {{<}1 V/cm}). The surface discrimination is based on the simultaneous measurement of the charge amplitudes on different sets of electrodes. As the rise time of a charge signal strongly depends on the location of an interaction in the crystal, a time-resolved measurement can also be used to identify surface interactions. This contribution presents the results of a study of the discrimination power of the rise time parameter from a hot carrier transport simulation in combination with time-resolved measurements using an EDELWEISS-type detector in a test cryostat at ground level. We show the setup for the time-resolved ionization signal read-out in the EDELWEISS-III experiment and first results from data taking in the underground laboratory of Modane.

Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, C.; Keisling, B. A.; Box, J. E.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Sinclair, G.; DeConto, R. M.

2018-02-01

The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to climate forcing is of key importance in assessing its contribution to past and future sea level rise. Surface mass loss occurs during summer, and accounting for temperature seasonality is critical in simulating ice sheet evolution and in interpreting glacial landforms and chronologies. Ice core records constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change but are largely limited to annual mean estimates from the ice sheet interior. Here we merge ice core reconstructions with transient climate model simulations to generate Greenland-wide and seasonally resolved surface air temperature fields during the last deglaciation. Greenland summer temperatures peak in the early Holocene, consistent with records of ice core melt layers. We perform deglacial Greenland ice sheet model simulations to demonstrate that accounting for realistic temperature seasonality decreases simulated glacial ice volume, expedites the deglacial margin retreat, mutes the impact of abrupt climate warming, and gives rise to a clear Holocene ice volume minimum.

Water levels and water quality in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer (middle Claiborne aquifer) in Arkansas, spring-summer 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schrader, T.P.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Geological Survey has monitored water levels in the Sparta Sand of Claiborne Group and Memphis Sand of Claiborne Group (herein referred to as the Sparta Sand and the Memphis Sand, respectively) since the 1920s. Groundwater withdrawals have increased while water levels have declined since monitoring was initiated. Herein, aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand will be referred to as the Sparta-Memphis aquifer throughout Arkansas. During the spring of 2009, 324 water levels were measured in wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer and used to produce a regional potentiometric-surface map. During the summer of 2009, 64 water-quality samples were collected and measured for specific conductance, temperature, and pH from wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. The regional direction of groundwater flow in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer is generally to the south-southeast in the northern half of Arkansas and to the east and south in the southern half of Arkansas, away from the outcrop area except where affected by large groundwater withdrawals. The highest and lowest water-level altitudes measured in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer were 325 feet above and 157 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, respectively. Eight depressions (generally represented by closed contours) are located in the following counties: Bradley; Ashley; Calhoun; Cleveland; Columbia; Arkansas, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Prairie; Cross and Poinsett; and Union. Two large depressions shown on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map, centered in Jefferson and Union Counties, are the result of large withdrawals for industrial, irrigation, or public supply. The depression centered in Jefferson County deepened and expanded in recent years into Arkansas and Prairie Counties. The area enclosed within the 40-foot contour on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map has expanded south to the Drew County line and moved west from the intersection of Arkansas, Jefferson, and Lincoln Counties when compared with the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. To the north, east, and west, the 40-foot contour is comparable to the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. The lowest water-level altitude measurement during 2009 in the center of the depression in Union County represents a rise of 42 feet since 2003. The area enclosed by the lowest altitude contour, 140 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map is about half the area on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. In the depression in western Poinsett and Cross Counties, the 140-foot contour extended north to the Poinsett-Craighead County line and south across Cross County about two-thirds of the distance to the St. Francis County line. A water-level difference map was constructed using water-level measurements made during 2005 and 2009 from 309 wells. The difference in water level between 2005 and 2009 ranged from -74.6 to 60.2 feet. Areas with a general rise in water levels occur in central Columbia County, southern Jefferson County, and most of Union County. In the area around west-central Union County, water levels rose as much as 60.2 feet with water levels in 18 wells rising 20 feet or more, representing an average annual rise of 5 feet or more. Water levels generally declined throughout most of the rest of Arkansas. Hydrographs were constructed using a minimum of 25 years of water-level measurements at each of 206 wells. During the period 1985–2009, mean annual water levels rose in Calhoun, Columbia, Lafayette, and Union Counties, about 1.3 feet per year (ft/yr), 0.2 ft/yr, 0.1 ft/yr, and 0.6 ft/yr, respectively. Mean annual water-level declines between 0.0 and 2.3 ft/yr occurred in all other counties. In western Arkansas County, water-level altitudes in a continuously monitored well declined 60 feet during the irrigation season (April to September). Specific conductance ranged from 43 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius (μS/cm) in Ouachita County to 1,230 μS/cm in Phillips County. The mean specific conductance was 392 μS/cm. Although there is a regional increase in specific conductance to the east and south, specific conductance values greater than 700 μS/cm occurred in samples from wells in Arkansas, Ashley, Monroe, Phillips, and Union Counties.

GIS-based vulnerability assessment to sea level rise of Al Hoceima Bay (Moroccan Mediterranean): towards an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Snoussi, M.

2013-12-01

In the context of coastal vulnerability to climate change and human impacts, integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is an increasingly relevant process for the sustainable development of coastal areas, in which scientific input plays a vital role. In the Mediterranean Basin, projected increases in sea level rise and in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events pose a major challenge for the management of low-lying coastal ecosystems and human settlements. The bay of Al Hoceima is one of the least studied and largest low-lying coastal areas of the Moroccan Mediterranean coast, and is exposed to the effects of sea level rise and storms. The coast is also a touristic area and one of the most important economic assets in the region. Physical coastal vulnerability assessments, determination of setback lines, and evaluation of coastal aquifer vulnerability to sea level rise are among the principal tools used to help decision makers in such a context. Here we quantified, in the context of sea level rise: (1) the physical vulnerability of the coastline, by developing a standard index methodology based on the five most relevant physical indices for local-scale vulnerability analysis, for a total of 822 50m/50m coastal cells; (2) coastal setback lines, based on shoreline evolutionary trends adjusted to sea level rise scenarios using a digital shoreline Analysis System (DSAS); and (3) the vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastal aquifer, using a modified GALDIT index (ground water occurrence, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, depth to groundwater level above the sea; distance from the shore; impact of existing status of sea water intrusion in the area; and thickness of the aquifer), following an integrated GIS approach. We find that 41% of the studied coastline is highly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and extreme weather events; 60% of the coastline is in retreat (with rates varying between -2m and -0.2m/y), 30% is in dynamic equilibrium (rates of -0.2 to +0.2m/y), and 10% is gradually prograding (with accretion rates of +0.2 to +0.8m/y). Setback line analysis indicates a potential retreat of the coastline of up to -90m by 2050 in the most vulnerable sectors. We find that the aquifer is subject to a moderate to high risk for at least half of its total area, and that for an assumed sea level rise of 0.5 m, the vulnerable surface area will increase by up to two times. The assessment of coastal erosion under different scenarios of sea level rise showed that, if no action is taken, most of the beaches are likely to disappear from the coupled effects of erosion and inundation. These findings will have direct repercussions for coastal development programs over both the short and long terms. The final results aim to provide coastal managers with tools to help the implementation of ICZM.

Two Sea-Level Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvin, C.

2008-12-01

"No place on the sandy ocean shores of the world has been shown to be eroding because of sea level rise." This statement appeared nearly 19 years ago in bold print at the top of the page in a brief article published in Shore and Beach (Galvin,1990). The term "sea level rise" was defined in 1990 as follows: "In this statement, "sea level rise" has the meaning that the average person on the street usually attaches to that term. That is, sea level is rising; not, as in some places like the Mississippi River delta, land level is sinking." While still a subject of controversy, it is now (2008) increasingly plausible (Tornqvist et al,2008) that damage from Hurricane Katrina was significantly worse on the Mississippi River delta because floodwaters exploited wetlands and levees whose elevations had been lowered by decades of compaction in the underlying soil. (1) "Sea level" commonly appears in the literature as "relative sea level rise", occurring that way in 711 publications between 1980 and 2009 (GeoRef database on 8 Sep 08). "Relative sea level rise" does not appear in the 2005 AGI Glossary. The nearest Glossary term is "relative change in sea level", but that term occurs in only 12 publications between 1980 and 2009. The Glossary defines this term in a sequence stratigraphy sense, which infers that "relative sea level rise" is the sum of bottom subsidence and eustatic sea level rise. In plain English, "relative sea level rise" means "water depth increase". For present day coastal environments, "relative sea level rise" is commonly used where eustatic sea level rise is less than subsidence, that is, where the magnitude of actual sea level rise is smaller than the magnitude of subsidence. In that situation, "relative sea level rise" misleads both the average person and the scientist who is not a coastal geologist. Thus, the first challenge is to abandon "relative sea level rise" in favor of "water depth increase", in order that the words accurately descibe what happens. It would further clarify popular understanding if the term "actual sea level rise" were used in place of "eustatic sea level rise". (2)Geologists have approximated the the practice of paleontologists and biologists in establishing type examples of important geological features. This is a useful practice. A graduate geologist holds in mind clear conceptions of "beach cusps", "drumlin fields", "birdfoot deltas", and "igneous sills" based on seeing field examples accepted by professional geologists as representative of these features. However, although publications frequently report that sea level rise erodes a particular beach, no one identifies a type beach where that cause has been proven to produce the alleged effect. At the type beach, it is necessary to show that sea level is rising, and that the beach erodes primarily from this sea level rise, rather than from interrupted longshore transport. Thus, the second challenge is to identify a type ocean beach proven to erode because of sea level rise.

Assessing the Potential for Inland Migration of a Northeastern Salt Marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farron, S.; FitzGerald, D.; Hughes, Z. J.

2017-12-01

It is often assumed that as sea level rises, salt marshes will expand inland. If the slope of the upland is relatively flat and sufficient sediment is available, marshes should be able to spread horizontally and grow vertically in order to maintain their areal extent. However, in cases where marshes are backed by steeper slopes, or sediment supply is limited, rising sea level will produce minimal gains along the landward edge insufficient to offset potential losses along the seaward edge. This study uses future sea level rise scenarios to project areal losses for the Great Marsh in Massachusetts, the largest continuous salt marsh in New England. Land area covered by salt marsh is defined by surface elevation. Annual sediment input to the system is estimated based on the areal extent of high and low marsh, historical accretion rates for each, and known organic/inorganic ratios. Unlike other studies, sediment availability is considered to be finite, and future accretion rates are limited based on the assumption that the system is presently receiving the maximum sediment input available. The Great Marsh is dominated by high marsh; as sea level rises, it will convert to low marsh, vastly altering the ecological and sedimentological dynamics of the system. If it is assumed that former high marsh areas will build vertically at the increased rate associated with low marsh, then much of the total marsh area will be maintained. However, this may be an unrealistic assumption due to the low levels of suspended sediment within the Great Marsh system. Modeling the evolution of the Great Marsh by assuming that the current accretion rate is the maximum possible for this system reveals much greater losses than models assuming an unlimited sediment supply would predict (17% less marsh by 2115). In addition, uplands surrounding the Great Marsh have been shaped by glaciation, leaving numerous drumlins and other glacial landforms. Compared to the flat backbarrier, the surrounding hills offer little opportunity for expansion. Modeling results suggest that sea level rise over the next century will convert 12 km2 of marsh to open water, but only 9 km2 of new marsh will be formed through uplands inundation and sedimentation. These findings suggest that sea level rise presents a particular threat to the Great Marsh, and marshes like it.

Modelling the thermosteric contribution to global and regional sea-level rise during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singarayer, Joy; Stone, Emma; Whipple, Matthew; Lunt, Dan; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Gregory, Jonathan

2014-05-01

Global sea level during the last interglacial is likely to have been between 5.5 and 9m above present (Dutton and Lambeck, 2012). Recent calculations, taking into account latest NEEM ice core information, suggest that Greenland would probably not have contributed more than 2.2m to this (Stone et al, 2013), implying a considerable contribution from Antarctica. Previous studies have suggested a significant loss from the West Antarctic ice-sheet (e.g. Holden et al, 2010), which could be initiated following a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and resultant warming in the Southern Ocean. Here, model simulations with FAMOUS and HadCM3 have been performed of the last interglacial under various scenarios of reduced Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet configurations, and with and without collapsed AMOC. Thermal expansion and changes in regional density structure (resulting from ocean circulation changes) can also influence sea level, in addition to ice mass effects discussed thus far. The HadCM3 and FAMOUS simulations will be used to estimate the contribution to global and regional sea level change in interglacials from the latter two factors using a similar methodology to the IPCC TAR/AR4 estimations of future sea level rise (Gregory and Lowe, 2000). The HadCM3 and FAMOUS both have a rigid lid in their ocean model, and consequently a fixed ocean volume. Thermal expansion can, however, be calculated as a volume change from in-situ density (a prognostic variable from the model). Relative sea surface topography will then be estimated from surface pressure gradients and changes in atmospheric pressure. Dutton A., and Lambeck K., 2013. Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial. Science, 337, 216-219 Gregory J.M. and Lowe J.A., 2000. Predictions of global and regional sea-level using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment. GRL, 27, 3069-3072 Holden P. et al., 2010. Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials. Clim. Past, 6, 431-443 Stone E.J., et al., 2013. Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Clim. Past, 9, 621-639

ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) Field Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lubin, Daniel; Bromwich, David H; Vogelmann, Andrew M

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) is the most technologically advanced atmospheric and climate science campaign yet fielded in Antarctica. AWARE was motivated be recent concern about the impact of cryospheric mass loss on global sea level rise. Specifically, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is now the second largest contributor to rising sea level, after the Greenland Ice Sheet. As steadily warming ocean water erodes the grounding lines of WAIS components where they meet the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, the retreating grounding lines moving inland and downslope on the underlyingmore » terrain imply mechanical instability of the entire WAIS. There is evidence that this point of instability may have already been reached, perhaps signifying more rapid loss of WAIS ice mass. At the same time, the mechanical support provided by adjacent ice shelves, and also the fundamental stability of exposed ice cliffs at the ice sheet grounding lines, will be adversely impacted by a warming atmosphere that causes more frequent episodes of surface melting. The surface meltwater damages the ice shelves and ice cliffs through hydrofracturing. With the increasing concern regarding these rapid cryospheric changes, AWARE was motivated by the need to (a) diagnose the surface energy balance in West Antarctica as related to both summer season climatology and potential surface melting, and (b) improve global climate model (GCM) performance over Antarctica, such that future cryospheric projections can be more reliable.« less

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Shannon, Sarah R.; Payne, Antony J.; Bartholomew, Ian D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; Sole, Andrew J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone. PMID:23940337

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Shannon, Sarah R; Payne, Antony J; Bartholomew, Ian D; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Edwards, Tamsin L; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W F; Nienow, Peter W; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F; Smeets, C J P Paul; Sole, Andrew J; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-08-27

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.

Water-level altitudes 2016 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973–2015 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Ramage, Jason K.; Johnson, Michaela R.

2016-10-07

Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2016 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2015–March 2016) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2015–16) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured 5-year (2011–16) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured long-term (1990–2016 and 1977–2016) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting approximate contoured long-term (2000–16) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured long-term cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973–2015. Tables listing the water-level data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the measured long-term cumulative compaction data for each extensometer site are included. Graphs depicting water-level measurement data also are included; these graphs can be used to approximate changes in effective stress caused by changes in groundwater withdrawal from the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers.In 2016, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet (ft) below the vertical datum (North American Vertical Datum of 1988; hereinafter, datum) in a localized area in northwestern Harris County to 200 ft above datum in west-central Montgomery County. Water-level changes during 2015–16 in the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 39-ft decline to a 26-ft rise. Contoured 5-year and long-term changes in water-level altitudes of the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 30-ft decline to a 20-ft rise (2011–16), from a 140-ft decline to a 160-ft rise (1990–2016), and from a 120-ft decline to a 200-ft rise (1977–2016). In 2016, water-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 250 ft below datum in three separate areas in south-central Montgomery County and extending into north-central Harris County, in west-central Harris County, and in southwestern Harris County to 200 ft above datum in southeastern Grimes and northwestern Montgomery Counties. Water-level changes during 2015–16 in the Evangeline aquifer ranged from a 65-ft decline to a 61-ft rise. Contoured 5-year and long-term changes in water-level altitudes of the Evangeline aquifer ranged from a 60-ft decline to a 40-ft rise (2011–16), from a 160-ft decline to a 160-ft rise (1990–2016), and from a 320-ft decline to a 240-ft rise (1977–2016). In 2016, water-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer ranged from 200 ft below datum in south-central Montgomery County extending into north-central Harris County to 250 ft above datum in northwestern Montgomery County and extending into eastern Grimes County and southwestern Walker County. Water-level changes during 2015–16 in the Jasper aquifer ranged from a 38-ft decline to a 51-ft rise. Contoured 5-year and long-term changes in water-level altitudes of the Jasper aquifer ranged from a 60-ft decline to a 40-ft rise (2011–16) and from a 220-ft decline to a 20-ft decline (2000–16).Compaction of subsurface sediments (mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers) in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers was recorded continuously by using 13 extensometers at 11 sites that were either activated or installed between 1973 and 1980. During the period of record beginning in 1973 (or later depending on activation or installation date) and ending in December 2015, measured cumulative compaction at the 13 extensometers ranged from 0.095 ft at the Texas City-Moses Lake extensometer to 3.666 ft at the Addicks extensometer. From January through December 2015, the Northeast, Southwest, Addicks, Johnson Space Center, and Clear Lake (deep) extensometers recorded net decreases in land-surface elevation, but the Lake Houston, East End, Texas City-Moses Lake, Baytown C–1 (shallow), Baytown C–2 (deep), Seabrook, Clear Lake (shallow), and Pasadena extensometers recorded net increases in land-surface elevation. For the 11 extensometer sites during the selected years 1988, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2015, the smallest effective stress (20.12 pounds per square inch [psi]) was estimated at the Texas City-Moses Lake extensometer site and was produced by a measured water level of 46.42 ft below land-surface datum (blsd) in January 2008. The corresponding net compaction during 2007 at this site was 0.001 ft. The largest effective stress (174.86 psi) was estimated at the Addicks extensometer site and was produced by a measured water level of 403.38 ft blsd in January 1998. The corresponding net compaction at the Addicks site was 0.067 ft in 1997.The 2011 drought caused water-level declines in the aquifers that were documented by the water-level-measurement data collected in January 2012. During the 2011 drought, the 13 extensometers recorded varying amounts of compaction that ranged from a net compaction value of 0.002 ft recorded by the Texas City-Moses Lake extensometer to a net compaction value of 0.192 ft recorded by the Pasadena extensometer. Water-level data for 1988, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2015 and the corresponding net compaction values recorded by the extensometers for 1987, 1997, 2007, 2011, and 2014 were used to illustrate the cause and effect relations between changes in water level caused by groundwater withdrawals and resulting changes in effective stress. Changes in effective stress are related to changes in land-surface elevations caused by compaction of the fine-grained sediments composing the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers.The rate of compaction varies from site to site because of differences in rates of groundwater withdrawal in the areas adjacent to each extensometer site; differences among sites in the ratios of sand, silt, and clay and their corresponding compressibilities; and previously established preconsolidation heads. It is not appropriate, therefore, to extrapolate or infer a rate of compaction for an adjacent area on the basis of the rate of compaction recorded by proximal extensometers.

Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

PubMed

Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm

2014-10-28

The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to -134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 10(6) km(3) greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

PubMed Central

Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm

2014-01-01

The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet’s dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to −134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 106 km3 greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka−1 punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5–14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y−1 (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100–150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15–20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP. PMID:25313072

Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

2006-01-01

Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

Time-lapse camera observations of gas piston activity at Pu`u `Ō`ō, Kīlauea volcano, Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, Tim R.; Rea, James C.

2012-12-01

Gas pistoning is a type of eruptive behavior described first at Kīlauea volcano and characterized by the (commonly) cyclic rise and fall of the lava surface within a volcanic vent or lava lake. Though recognized for decades, its cause continues to be debated, and determining why and when it occurs has important implications for understanding vesiculation and outgassing processes at basaltic volcanoes. Here, we describe gas piston activity that occurred at the Pu`u `Ō`ō cone, in Kīlauea's east rift zone, during June 2006. Direct, detailed measurements of lava level, made from time-lapse camera images captured at close range, show that the gas pistons during the study period lasted from 2 to 60 min, had volumes ranging from 14 to 104 m3, displayed a slowing rise rate of the lava surface, and had an average gas release duration of 49 s. Our data are inconsistent with gas pistoning models that invoke gas slug rise or a dynamic pressure balance but are compatible with models which appeal to gas accumulation and loss near the top of the lava column, possibly through the generation and collapse of a foam layer.

Landslide investigations, southern Cianjur Regency, West Java Province, Indonesia; a progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ege, John R.

1983-01-01

Two landslide-monitoring sites have been established for a minimum 2-year investigation near the villages of Pasirpari and Cibacang in southern Cianjur Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Surveyed-in lines will measure amounts of surface movement and tilt, borings that produced exploratory cores now serve as slip-surface detectors and open-pipe piezometers, and rain gages will record rainfall at both sites. Exploratory cores and field observations located upper slip surfaces ranging in depth between 4 and 14 m. Rises of borehole-water levels of as much as 63 cm during drilling suggest that pore pressures exist at the inferred-slip surfaces. Sliding along slip surfaces and slope failures occurred during the rainy season between November 1980 and April 1981.

Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-year perspective, 1950-2080

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Liston, Glen; Hiemstra, Christopher

2009-01-01

Fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass-balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the IPCC scenario AlB modeled by the HIRHAM4 RCM (using boundary conditions from ECHAM5 AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In-situ meteorological station (GC-Net and WMO DMI) observations from inside and outside the GrISmore » were used to validate and correct RCM output data before it was used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model's robustness. We simulated a {approx}90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}) from 1950 to 2080, and a melt index (above 2,000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} x days). The greatest difference in melt extent occured in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days was seen in the eastern part of the GrIS ({approx}50-70%) and was lowest in the west ({approx}20-30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, lead to an enhanced average loss of 331 km{sup 3} from 1950 to 2080, an average 5MB level of -99 km{sup 3} for the period 2070-2080. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded an eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 {+-} 0.1 (1950-1959) to 1.9 {+-} 0.1 mm (2070-2080) sea level equivalent (SLE) y{sup -1}. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160 mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.« less

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, N. R.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Naish, T. R.; Levy, R. H.; Fogwill, C. J.; Gasson, E. G. W.

2015-10-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

2015-10-15

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Impact of climate change on freshwater resources in a heterogeneous coastal aquifer of Bremerhaven, Germany: A three-dimensional modeling study.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Ptak, Thomas

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to induce sea level rise in the German Bight, which is part of the North Sea, Germany. Climate change may also modify river discharge of the river Weser flowing into the German Bight, which will alter both pressure and salinity distributions in the river Weser estuary. To study the long-term interaction between sea level rise, discharge variations, a storm surge and coastal aquifer flow dynamics, a 3D seawater intrusion model was designed using the fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integral system considering complexities such as variable-density flow, variably saturated flow, irregular boundary conditions, irregular land surface and anthropogenic structures (e.g., dyke, drainage canals, water gates). The simulated steady-state groundwater flow of the year 2009 is calibrated using PEST. In addition, four climate change scenarios are simulated based on the calibrated model: (i) sea level rise of 1m, (ii) the salinity of the seaside boundary increases by 4 PSU (Practical Salinity Units), (iii) the salinity of the seaside boundary decreases by 12 PSU, and (iv) a storm surge with partial dyke failure. Under scenarios (i) and (iv), the salinized area expands several kilometers further inland during several years. Natural remediation can take up to 20 years. However, sudden short-term salinity changes in the river Weser estuary do not influence the salinized area in the coastal aquifer. The obtained results are useful for coastal engineering practices and drinking water resource management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The birth and evolution of surface science: child of the union of science and technology.

PubMed

Duke, C B

2003-04-01

This article is an account of the birth and evolution of surface science as an interdisciplinary research area. Surface science emanated from the confluence of concepts and tools in physics and chemistry with technological innovations that made it possible to determine the structure and properties of surfaces and interfaces and the dynamics of chemical reactions at surfaces. The combination in the 1960s and 1970s of ultra-high-vacuum (i.e., P < 10(-7) Pascal or 10(-9) Torr) technology with the recognition that electrons in the energy range from 50 to 500 eV exhibited inelastic collision mean free paths of the order of a few angstroms fostered an explosion of activity. The results were a reformulation of the theory of electron solid scattering, the nearly universal use of electron spectroscopies for surface characterization, the rise of surface science as an independent interdisciplinary research area, and the emergence of the American Vacuum Society (AVS) as a major international scientific society. The rise of microelectronics in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in huge increases in computational power. These increases enabled more complex experiments and the utilization of density functional theory for the quantitative prediction of surface structure and dynamics. Development of scanning-probe microscopies in the 1990s led to atomic-resolution images of macroscopic surfaces and interfaces as well as videos of atoms moving about on surfaces during growth and diffusion. Scanning probes have since brought solid-liquid interfaces into the realm of atomic-level surface science, expanding its scope to more complex systems, including fragile biological materials and processes.

Estimation of bare soil evaporation for different depths of water table in the wind-blown sand area of the Ordos Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Li; Wang, Wenke; Zhang, Zaiyong; Wang, Zhoufeng; Wang, Qiangmin; Zhao, Ming; Gong, Chengcheng

2018-04-01

Soil surface evaporation is a significant component of the hydrological cycle, occurring at the interface between the atmosphere and vadose zone, but it is affected by factors such as groundwater level, soil properties, solar radiation and others. In order to understand the soil evaporation characteristics in arid regions, a field experiment was conducted in the Ordos Basin, central China, and high accuracy sensors of soil moisture, moisture potential and temperature were installed in three field soil profiles with water-table depths (WTDs) of about 0.4, 1.4 and 2.2 m. Soil-surface-evaporation values were estimated by observed data combined with Darcy's law. Results showed that: (1) soil-surface-evaporation rate is linked to moisture content and it is also affected by air temperature. When there is sufficient moisture in the soil profile, soil evaporation increases with rising air temperature. For a WTD larger than the height of capillary rise, the soil evaporation is related to soil moisture content, and when air temperature is above 25 °C, the soil moisture content reduces quickly and the evaporation rate lowers; (2) phreatic water contributes to soil surface evaporation under conditions in which the WTD is within the capillary fringe. This indicates that phreatic water would not participate in soil evaporation for a WTD larger than the height of capillary rise. This finding developed further the understanding of phreatic evaporation, and this study provides valuable information on recognized soil evaporation processes in the arid environment.

In vitro radicular temperatures produced by injectable thermoplasticized gutta-percha.

PubMed

Weller, R N; Koch, K A

1995-03-01

In vitro temperatures produced in the root canal and on the root surface were measured simultaneously as heated gutta-percha was injected into the prepared canal. The canals were obturated with the Obtura II heated gutta-percha system with temperature settings of 160, 185, and 200 degrees C. The mean intracanal temperatures ranged from 40.21 to 57.24 degrees C, whereas the mean root surface temperatures were recorded from 37.22 to 41.90 degrees C for all three temperatures tested. The rise in temperature on the root surface was below the critical level of 10 degrees C and should not cause damage to the periodontal ligament.

The Difference Between the Potentiomentric Surfaces of the Lower Patapsco Aquifer, September 1990 and September 2001 in Southern Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2002-01-01

This report presents a map showing the change in the potentiometric surface of the Lower Patapsco aquifer in the Lower Patapsco Formation of Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland for September 1990 and September 2001. The map, based on water level measurements in 49 wells, shows that the change of the potentiometric surface during the 11- year period ranged from a rise of 11 feet at Indian Head and 6 feet near the outcrop area in Glen Burnie, to declines of 37 feet at Arnold, 52 feet at Waldorf, and 31 feet at Morgantown.

High tides and rising seas: potential effects on estuarine waterbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.; Sanders, G.M.; Prosser, D.J.; Cahoon, D.R.; Greenberg, Russell; Maldonado, Jesus; Droege, Sam; McDonald, M.V.

2006-01-01

Coastal waterbirds are vulnerable to water-level changes especially under predictions of accelerating sea-level rise and increased storm frequency in the next century. Tidal and wind-driven fluctuations in water levels affecting marshes, their invertebrate communities, and their dependent waterbirds are manifested in daily, monthly, seasonal, annual, and supra-annual (e.g., decadal or 18.6-yr) periodicities. Superimposed on these cyclic patterns is a long-term (50?80 yr) increase in relative sea-level rise that varies from about 2?4 + mm/yr along the Atlantic coastline. At five study sites selected on marsh islands from Cape Cod, Massachusetts to coastal Virginia, we monitored marsh elevation changes and flooding, tide variations over time, and waterbird use. We found from longterm marsh core data that marsh elevations at three of five sites may not be sufficient to maintain pace with current sea-level rise. Results of the short-term (3?4 yr) measures using surface elevation tables suggest a more dramatic difference, with marsh elevation change at four of five sites falling below relative sea-level rise. In addition, we have found a significant increase (in three of four cases) in the rate of surface marsh flooding in New Jersey and Virginia over the past 70?80 yr during May?July when waterbirds are nesting on or near the marsh surface. Short-term, immediate effects of flooding will jeopardize annual fecundity of many species of concern to federal and state agencies, most notably American Black Duck (Anas rubripes), Nelson?s Sharp-tailed Sparrow (Ammodramus nelsoni), Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed Sparrow (A. caudacutus), Seaside Sparrow (A. maritima), Coastal Plain Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana nigrescens), Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis), Forster?s Tern (Sterna forsteri), Gull-billed Tern (S. nilotica), Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), and American Oystercatcher (Haemotopus palliatus). Forster?s Terns are probably most at risk given the large proportion of their breeding range in the mid-Atlantic and their saltmarsh specialization. At a scale of 1?2 decades, vegetation changes (saltmeadow cordgrass [Spartina patens] and salt grass [Distichlis spicata] converting to smooth cordgrass [Spartina alternifl ora]), interior pond expansion and erosion of marshes will reduce nesting habitat for many of these species, but may enhance feeding habitat of migrant shorebirds and/or migrant or wintering waterfowl. At scales of 50?100 yr, reversion of marsh island complexes to open water may enhance populations of open-bay waterfowl, e.g., Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola) and Canvasback (Aythya valisneria), but reduce nesting habitats dramatically for the above named marsh-nesting species, may reduce estuarine productivity by loss of the detrital food web and nursery habitat for fish and invertebrates, and cause redistribution of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other species. Such scenarios are more likely to occur in the mid- and north Atlantic regions since these estuaries are lower in sediment delivery on average than those in the Southeast. A simple hypothetical example from New Jersey is presented where waterbirds are forced to shift from submerged natural marshes to nearby impoundments, resulting in roughly a 10-fold increase in density. Whether prey fauna are sufficiently abundant to support this level of increase remains an open question, but extreme densities in confined habitats would exacerbate competition, increase disease risk, and possibly increase predation.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes.

PubMed

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-05-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30-80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes

PubMed Central

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-01-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30–80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species. PMID:26045957

Use of a three-dimensional model for the analysis of the ground-water flow system in Parker Valley, Arizona and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tucci, Patrick

1982-01-01

A three-dimensional, finite-difference model was used to simulate ground-water flow conditions in Parker Valley. The study evaluated present knowledge and concepts of the ground-water system and the ability of the model to represent the system. Modeling assumptions and generalized physical parameters that were used may have transfer value in the construction and calibration of models of other basins along the lower Colorado River. The aquifer was simulated in two layers to represent the three-dimensional system. Ground-water conditions were simulated for 1940-41, the mid-1960's, and 1980. Overall model results generally compared favorably with available field information. The model results showed that for 1940-41 the Colorado River was a losing stream through out Parker Valley. Infiltration of surface water from the river was the major source of recharge. The dominant mechanism of discharge was evapotranspiration by phreatophytes. Agricultural development between 1941 and the mid-1960 's resulted in significant changes to the ground-water system. Model results for conditions in the mid-1960 's showed that the Colorado River had become a gaining stream in the northern part of the valley as a result of higher water levels. The rise in water levels was caused by infiltration of applied irrigation water. Diminished water-level gradients from the river in the rest of the valley reduced the amount of infiltration of surface water from the river. Models results for conditions in 1980 showed that ground-water level rises of several feet caused further reduction in the amount of surface-water infiltration from the river. (USGS)

Surface elevation change and susceptibility of different mangrove zones to sea-level rise on Pacific high islands o Micronesia

Treesearch

K.W. Krauss; D.R. Cahoon; J.A. Allen; K.C. Ewel; J.C. Lynch; N. Cormier

2010-01-01

Mangroves on Pacific high islands offer a number of important ecosystem services to both natural ecological communities and human societies. High islands are subjected to constant erosion over geologic time, which establishes an important source of terrigeneous sediment for nearby marinecommunities. Many of these sediments are deposited in mangrove forests and offer...

U.S. national climate change assessment on forest ecosystems: an introduction

Treesearch

Steven G. McNulty; John D. Aber

2001-01-01

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases have been increasing since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1850. Over the next century, increasing gas concentrations could cause the temperature on the surface of the Earth to rise as much as 2-3°C over historic mean annual levels.Variation in annual...

MK2 inhibitor reduces alkali burn-induced inflammation in rat cornea

PubMed Central

Chen, Yanfeng; Yang, Wenzhao; Zhang, Xiaobo; Yang, Shu; Peng, Gao; Wu, Ting; Zhou, Yueping; Huang, Caihong; Reinach, Peter S.; Li, Wei; Liu, Zuguo

2016-01-01

MK2 activation by p38 MAPK selectively induces inflammation in various diseases. We determined if a MK2 inhibitor (MK2i), improves cornea wound healing by inhibiting inflammation caused by burning rat corneas with alkali. Our study, for the first time, demonstrated that MK2i inhibited alkali burn-induced MK2 activation as well as rises in inflammation based on: a) blunting rises in inflammatory index, inflammatory cell infiltration, ED1+ macrophage and PMN+ neutrophil infiltration; b) suppressing IL-6 and IL-1β gene expression along with those of macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1); c) reducing angiogenic gene expression levels and neovascularization (NV) whereas anti-angiogenic PEDF levels increased. In addition, this study found that MK2i did not affect human corneal epithelial cell (HCEC) proliferation and migration and had no detectable side effects on ocular surface integrity. Taken together, MK2i selectively inhibited alkali burn-induced corneal inflammation by blocking MK2 activation, these effects have clinical relevance in the treatment of inflammation related ocular surface diseases. PMID:27329698

Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, K.L.; Cahoon, D.R.; Feller, Ilka C.

2007-01-01

Aim The long-term stability of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and salt marshes depends upon the maintenance of soil elevations within the intertidal habitat as sea level changes. We examined the rates and processes of peat formation by mangroves of the Caribbean Region to better understand biological controls on habitat stability. Location Mangrove-dominated islands on the Caribbean coasts of Belize, Honduras and Panama were selected as study sites. Methods Biological processes controlling mangrove peat formation were manipulated (in Belize) by the addition of nutrients (nitrogen or phosphorus) to Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove), and the effects on the dynamics of soil elevation were determined over a 3-year period using rod surface elevation tables (RSET) and marker horizons. Peat composition and geological accretion rates were determined at all sites using radiocarbon-dated cores. Results The addition of nutrients to mangroves caused significant changes in rates of mangrove root accumulation, which influenced both the rate and direction of change in elevation. Areas with low root input lost elevation and those with high rates gained elevation. These findings were consistent with peat analyses at multiple Caribbean sites showing that deposits (up to 10 m in depth) were composed primarily of mangrove root matter. Comparison of radiocarbon-dated cores at the study sites with a sea-level curve for the western Atlantic indicated a tight coupling between peat building in Caribbean mangroves and sea-level rise over the Holocene. Main conclusions Mangroves common to the Caribbean region have adjusted to changing sea level mainly through subsurface accumulation of refractory mangrove roots. Without root and other organic inputs, submergence of these tidal forests is inevitable due to peat decomposition, physical compaction and eustatic sea-level rise. These findings have relevance for predicting the effects of sea-level rise and biophysical processes on tropical mangrove ecosystems.

The lisse effect revisited

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weeks, E.P.

2002-01-01

The Lisse effect is a rarely noted phenomenon occurring when infiltration caused by intense rain seals the surface soil layer to airflow, trapping air in the unsaturated zone. Compression of air by the advancing front results in a pressure increase that produces a water-level rise in an observation well screened below the water table that is several times as large as the distance penetrated by the wetting front. The effect is triggered by intense rains and results in a very rapid water-level rise, followed by a recession lasting a few days. The Lisse effect was first noted and explained by Thal Larsen in 1932 from water-level observations obtained in a shallow well in the village of Lisse, Holland. The original explanation does not account for the increased air pressure pushing up on the bottom of the wetting front. Analysis of the effect of this upward pressure indicates that a negative pressure head at the base of the wetting front, ??f, analogous to that postulated by Green and Ampt (1911) to explain initially rapid infiltration rates into unsaturated soils, is involved in producing the Lisse effect. Analysis of recorded observations of the Lisse effect by Larsen and others indicates that the water-level rise, which typically ranges from 0.10 to 0.55 m, should be only slightly larger than |??f| and that the depth of penetration of the wetting front is no more than several millimeters.

Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terada, Mio; Minobe, Shoshiro

2017-09-01

Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.

Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terada, Mio; Minobe, Shoshiro

2018-06-01

Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.

Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J., . . . Weiss, J. (2012). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (pp. 37). Resio, D. T. (2007). White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities (pp. 125). Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center.

Impacts of artificial ocean alkalinization on the carbon cycle and climate in Earth system simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Miriam Ferrer; Ilyina, Tatiana

2016-06-01

Using the state-of-the-art emissions-driven Max Planck Institute Earth system model, we explore the impacts of artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) with a scenario based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework. Addition of 114 Pmol of alkalinity to the surface ocean stabilizes atmospheric CO2 concentration to RCP4.5 levels under RCP8.5 emissions. This scenario removes 940 GtC from the atmosphere and mitigates 1.5 K of global warming within this century. The climate adjusts to the lower CO2 concentration preventing the loss of sea ice and high sea level rise. Seawater pH and the carbonate saturation state (Ω) rise substantially above levels of the current decade. Pronounced differences in regional sensitivities to AOA are projected, with the Arctic Ocean and tropical oceans emerging as hot spots for biogeochemical changes induced by AOA. Thus, the CO2 mitigation potential of AOA comes at a price of an unprecedented ocean biogeochemistry perturbation with unknown ecological consequences.

Identifying risk factors for exposure to culturable allergenic moulds in energy efficient homes by using highly specific monoclonal antibodies.

PubMed

Sharpe, Richard A; Cocq, Kate Le; Nikolaou, Vasilis; Osborne, Nicholas J; Thornton, Christopher R

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in identifying culturable allergenic fungi present in visible mould growth in energy efficient homes, and to identify risk factors for exposure to these known allergenic fungi. Swabs were taken from fungal contaminated surfaces and culturable yeasts and moulds isolated by using mycological culture. Soluble antigens from cultures were tested by ELISA using mAbs specific to the culturable allergenic fungi Aspergillus and Penicillium spp., Ulocladium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum spp., Cladosporium spp., Fusarium spp., and Trichoderma spp. Diagnostic accuracies of the ELISA tests were determined by sequencing of the internally transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1)-5.8S-ITS2-encoding regions of recovered fungi following ELISA. There was 100% concordance between the two methods, with ELISAs providing genus-level identity and ITS sequencing providing species-level identities (210 out of 210 tested). Species of Aspergillus/Penicillium, Cladosporium, Ulocladium/Alternaria/Epicoccum, Fusarium and Trichoderma were detected in 82% of the samples. The presence of condensation was associated with an increased risk of surfaces being contaminated by Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. and Cladosporium spp., whereas moisture within the building fabric (water ingress/rising damp) was only associated with increased risk of Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. Property type and energy efficiency levels were found to moderate the risk of indoor surfaces becoming contaminated with Aspergillus/Penicillium and Cladosporium which in turn was modified by the presence of condensation, water ingress and rising damp, consistent with previous literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preparing for climate change.

PubMed

Holdgate, M

1989-01-01

There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been released in great quantities through their use in aerosol sprays, refrigerator fluids, and insulating foams. We can get rid of CFCs and curb the pollutants generating ozone, but it will be difficult to put the brake on either methane or nitrous oxide. And the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will demand major changes in energy policy as well as action to slow deforestation. It appears that we are already committed to rising temperatures and sea levels. The question is by how much, in which areas? A number of things can be done to prepare for these changes: Governments must recognize that there is a problem; Better models must be worked out, especially to define where the greatest impacts from climate change and sea level rise will hit; Reference scenarios must be developed to see what the impacts are likely to be in ecological, agricultural, social and economic terms; Every country should develop "avoidance strategies" to minimize risk (for example, by not building on land likely to be flooded); We must cut down on the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere from human activities, by eliminating CFCs and adopting energy conservation programs and other measures to minimize CO2 release; Global agreements to protect the atmosphere are needed. full text

Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hein, Andrew S.; Woodward, John; Marrero, Shasta M.; Dunning, Stuart A.; Steig, Eric J.; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.; Stuart, Finlay M.; Winter, Kate; Westoby, Matthew J.; Sugden, David E.

2016-02-01

Past fluctuations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are of fundamental interest because of the possibility of WAIS collapse in the future and a consequent rise in global sea level. However, the configuration and stability of the ice sheet during past interglacial periods remains uncertain. Here we present geomorphological evidence and multiple cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains to suggest that the divide of the WAIS has fluctuated only modestly in location and thickness for at least the last 1.4 million years. Fluctuations during glacial-interglacial cycles appear superimposed on a long-term trajectory of ice-surface lowering relative to the mountains. This implies that as a minimum, a regional ice sheet centred on the Ellsworth-Whitmore uplands may have survived Pleistocene warm periods. If so, it constrains the WAIS contribution to global sea level rise during interglacials to about 3.3 m above present.

Increasing the highest storm surge in Busan harbor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Sang Myeong; Moon, Il-Ju; Kwon, Suk Jae

2017-04-01

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change in coastal regions is sea level rise and storm surges. Busan in particular, the fifth largest container handling port in the world, has suffered from serious storm surges and experienced a remarkable mean sea level (MSL) rise. This study investigates a long-term variation of annual maximum surge height (AMSH) using sea level data observed in Busan over 53 years (1962 2014). The decomposition of astronomical tides and surge components shows that the AMSH has increased 18 cm over 53 years (i.e., 3.5 mm/year), which is much larger than the MSL trend (2.5 mm/year) in Busan. This significant increase in AMSH is mostly explained by the increased intensity of landfall typhoons over the Korean peninsula (KP), which is associated with the increase of sea surface temperature and the decrease of vertical wind shear at mid-latitudes of the western North Pacific. In a projected future warming environment, the combination of an increasing MSL and AMSH will accelerate the occurrence of record-breaking extreme sea levels, which will be a potential threat in Busan harbor.

Water-level changes induced by local and distant earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Sneed, Michelle; Galloway, Devin L.; Sorey, Michael L.; Farrar, Christopher D.; Howle, James F.; Hughes, J.

2003-01-01

Distant as well as local earthquakes have induced groundwater-level changes persisting for days to weeks at Long Valley caldera, California. Four wells open to formations as deep as 300 m have responded to 16 earthquakes, and responses to two earthquakes in the 3-km-deep Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) show that these changes are not limited to weathered or unconsolidated near-surface rocks. All five wells exhibit water-level variations in response to earth tides, indicating they can be used as low-resolution strainmeters. Earthquakes induce gradual water-level changes that increase in amplitude for as long as 30 days, then return more slowly to pre-earthquake levels. The gradual water-level changes are always drops at wells LKT, LVEW, and CH-10B, and always rises at well CW-3. At a dilatometer just outside the caldera, earthquake-induced strain responses consist of either a step followed by a contractional strain-rate increase, or a transient contractional signal that reaches a maximum in about seven days and then returns toward the pre-earthquake value. The sizes of the gradual water-level changes generally increase with earthquake magnitude and decrease with hypocentral distance. Local earthquakes in Long Valley produce coseismic water-level steps; otherwise the responses to local earthquakes and distant earthquakes are indistinguishable. In particular, water-level and strain changes in Long Valley following the 1992 M7.3 Landers earthquake, 450 km distant, closely resemble those initiated by a M4.9 local earthquake on November 22, 1997, during a seismic swarm with features indicative of fluid involvement. At the LKT well, many of the response time histories are identical for 20 days after each earthquake, and can be matched by a theoretical solution giving the pore pressure as a function of time due to diffusion of a nearby, instantaneous, pressure drop. Such pressure drops could be produced by accelerated inflation of the resurgent dome by amounts too small to be detected by the two-color electronic distance-measuring network. Opening-mode displacement in the south moat, inferred to have followed a M4.9 earthquake on November 22, 1997, could also create extensional strain on the dome and lead to water-level changes similar to those following dome inflation. Contractional strain that could account for earthquake-induced water-level rises at the CW-3 well is inconsistent with geodetic observations. We instead attribute these water-level rises to diffusion of elevated fluid pressure localized in the south moat thermal aquifer. For hydraulic diffusivities appropriate to the upper few hundred meters at Long Valley, an influx of material at temperatures of 300°C can thermally generate pressure of 6 m of water or more, an order of magnitude larger than needed to account for the CW-3 water-level rises. If magma or hot aqueous fluid rises to within 1 km of the surface in the eastern part of the south moat, then hydraulic diffusivities are high enough to allow fluid pressure to propagate to CW-3 on the time scale observed. The data indicate that seismic waves from large distant earthquakes can stimulate upward movement of fluid in the hydrothermal system at Long Valley.

Nutrient budgets, marsh inundation under sea-level rise scenarios, and sediment chronologies for the Bass Harbor Marsh estuary at Acadia National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Glibert, Patricia; Sturtevant, Luke

2014-01-01

Eutrophication in the Bass Harbor Marsh estuary on Mount Desert Island, Maine, is an ongoing problem manifested by recurring annual blooms of green macroalgae species, principally Enteromorpha prolifera and Enteromorpha flexuosa, blooms that appear in the spring and summer. These blooms are unsightly and impair the otherwise natural beauty of this estuarine ecosystem. The macroalgae also threaten the integrity of the estuary and its inherent functions. The U.S. Geological Survey and Acadia National Park have collaborated for several years to better understand the factors related to this eutrophication problem with support from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service Water Quality Assessment and Monitoring Program. The current study involved the collection of hydrologic and water-quality data necessary to investigate the relative contribution of nutrients from oceanic and terrestrial sources during summer 2011 and summer 2012. This report provides data on nutrient budgets for this estuary, sedimentation chronologies for the estuary and fringing marsh, and estuary bathymetry. The report also includes data, based on aerial photographs, on historical changes from 1944 to 2010 in estuary surface area and data, based on surface-elevation details, on changes in marsh area that may accompany sea-level rise. The LOADEST regression model was used to calculate nutrient loads into and out of the estuary during summer 2011 and summer 2012. During these summers, tidal inputs of ammonium to the estuary were more than seven times greater than the combined inputs in watershed runoff and precipitation. In 2011 tidal inputs of nitrate were about four times greater than watershed plus precipitation inputs, and in 2012 tidal inputs were only slightly larger than watershed plus precipitation inputs. In 2011, tidal inputs of total organic nitrogen were larger than watershed input by a factor of 1.6. By contrast, in 2012 inputs of total organic nitrogen in watershed runoff were much larger than tidal inputs, by a factor of 3.6. During the 2011 and 2012 summers, tidal inputs of total dissolved phosphorus to the estuary were more than seven times greater than inputs in watershed runoff. It is evident that during the summer tidal inputs of inorganic nitrogen and total dissolved phosphorus to the estuary exceed inputs from watershed runoff and precipitation. Projected sea-level rise associated with ongoing climate warming will affect the area of land within the Bass Harbor Marsh estuary watershed that is inundated during conditions of mean higher high water and during mean lower low water and hence will affect the vegetation and marsh area. Given 100-centimeter sea-level rise, the inundated area would increase from 25.7 hectares at the current condition to 77.5 hectares at mean higher high water and from 21.6 hectares to 26.7 hectares at mean lower low water. Given 50-centimeter sea-level rise, flooding of the entire marsh surface, which currently occurs only under the highest spring tides, would occur on average every other day. Radioisotope analysis of sediment cores from the estuary indicates that the sediment accumulation rate increased markedly from 1930 to 1980 and was relatively constant (0.4 to 0.5 centimeter per year) from 1980 to 2009. Similarly, from 1980 to 2009 there was a consistently high mass accumulation rate of 0.09 to 0.11 grams per square centimeter per year. The sediment accretion rates determined for the five cores collected from the marsh surface (east and west sides of the estuary) in 2011 show generally higher rates of 0.20 to 0.29 centimeter per year for the period between 1980 to 2011 than for the period before 1980, when sediment accretion rates were 0.06 to 0.25 centimeter per year. The data in this report provide resource managers at Acadia National Park with a baseline that can be used to evaluate future conditions within the estuary. Climate change, sea-level rise, and land-use change within the estuary’s watershed may influence nutrient dynamics, sedimentation, and eutrophication, and these potential effects can be studied in relation to the baseline data provided in this report. The Route 102 Bridge in Tremont, Maine is constructed over a sill that controls the amount of tidal flushing by restricting the duration of the flood tide, and structural changes to the bridge could alter tidal nutrient inputs and residence times for watershed and ocean-derived nutrients in the estuary. Ongoing sea-level rise is likely increasing ocean-derived nutrients and their residence time in the estuary on the one hand and decreasing the residence time of watershed-derived nutrients on the other.

Below the disappearing marshes of an urban estuary: historic nitrogen trends and soil structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wigand, Cathleen; Roman, Charles T.; Davey, Earl; Stolt, Mark; Johnson, Roxanne; Hanson, Alana; Watson, Elizabeth B.; Moran, S. Bradley; Cahoon, Donald R.; Lynch, James C.; Rafferty, Patricia

2014-01-01

Marshes in the urban Jamaica Bay Estuary, New York, USA are disappearing at an average rate of 13 ha/yr, and multiple stressors (e.g., wastewater inputs, dredging activities, groundwater removal, and global warming) may be contributing to marsh losses. Among these stressors, wastewater nutrients are suspected to be an important contributing cause of marsh deterioration. We used census data, radiometric dating, stable nitrogen isotopes, and soil surveys to examine the temporal relationships between human population growth and soil nitrogen; and we evaluated soil structure with computer-aided tomography, surface elevation and sediment accretion trends, carbon dioxide emissions, and soil shear strength to examine differences among disappearing (Black Bank and Big Egg) and stable marshes (JoCo). Radiometric dating and nitrogen isotope analyses suggested a rapid increase in human wastewater nutrients beginning in the late 1840s, and a tapering off beginning in the 1930s when wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were first installed. Current WWTPs nutrient loads to Jamaica Bay are approximately 13 995 kg N/d and 2767 kg P/d. At Black Bank, the biomass and abundance of roots and rhizomes and percentage of organic matter on soil were significantly lower, rhizomes larger in diameter, carbon dioxide emission rates and peat particle density significantly greater, and soil strength significantly lower compared to the stable JoCo Marsh, suggesting Black Bank has elevated decomposition rates, more decomposed peat, and highly waterlogged peat. Despite these differences, the rates of accretion and surface elevation change were similar for both marshes, and the rates of elevation change approximated the long term relative rate of sea level rise estimated from tide gauge data at nearby Sandy Hook, New Jersey. We hypothesize that Black Bank marsh kept pace with sea level rise by the accretion of material on the marsh surface, and the maintenance of soil volume through production of larger diameter rhizomes and swelling (dilation) of waterlogged peat. JoCo Marsh kept pace with sea-level rise through surface accretion and soil organic matter accumulation. Understanding the effects of multiple stressors, including nutrient enrichment, on soil structure, organic matter accumulation, and elevation change will better inform management decisions aimed at maintaining and restoring coastal marshes.

Below the disappearing marshes of an urban estuary: historic nitrogen trends and soil structure.

PubMed

Wigand, Cathleen; Roman, Charles T; Davey, Earl; Stolt, Mark; Johnson, Roxanne; Hanson, Alana; Watson, Elizabeth B; Moran, S Bradley; Cahoon, Donald R; Lynch, James C; Rafferty, Patricia

2014-06-01

Marshes in the urban Jamaica Bay Estuary, New York, USA are disappearing at an average rate of 13 ha/yr, and multiple stressors (e.g., wastewater inputs, dredging activities, groundwater removal, and global warming) may be contributing to marsh losses. Among these stressors, wastewater nutrients are suspected to be an important contributing cause of marsh deterioration. We used census data, radiometric dating, stable nitrogen isotopes, and soil surveys to examine the temporal relationships between human population growth and soil nitrogen; and we evaluated soil structure with computer-aided tomography, surface elevation and sediment accretion trends, carbon dioxide emissions, and soil shear strength to examine differences among disappearing (Black Bank and Big Egg) and stable marshes (JoCo). Radiometric dating and nitrogen isotope analyses suggested a rapid increase in human wastewater nutrients beginning in the late 1840s, and a tapering off beginning in the 1930s when wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were first installed. Current WWTPs nutrient loads to Jamaica Bay are approximately 13 995 kg N/d and 2767 kg P/d. At Black Bank, the biomass and abundance of roots and rhizomes and percentage of organic matter on soil were significantly lower, rhizomes larger in diameter, carbon dioxide emission rates and peat particle density significantly greater, and soil strength significantly lower compared to the stable JoCo Marsh, suggesting Black Bank has elevated decomposition rates, more decomposed peat, and highly waterlogged peat. Despite these differences, the rates of accretion and surface elevation change were similar for both marshes, and the rates of elevation change approximated the long-term relative rate of sea level rise estimated from tide gauge data at nearby Sandy Hook, New Jersey. We hypothesize that Black Bank marsh kept pace with sea level rise by the accretion of material on the marsh surface, and the maintenance of soil volume through production of larger diameter rhizomes and swelling (dilation) of waterlogged peat. JoCo Marsh kept pace with sea-level rise through surface accretion and soil organic matter accumulation. Understanding the effects of multiple stressors, including nutrient enrichment, on soil structure, organic matter accumulation, and elevation change will better inform management decisions aimed at maintaining and restoring coastal marshes.

Craterlike structures on the laser cut surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulyatyev, V. B.; Orishich, A. M.

2017-10-01

Analysis of the laser cut surface morphology remain topical. It is related with the fact that the surface roughness is the main index of the cut quality. The present paper deals with the experimental study of the relatively unstudied type of defects on the laser cut surface, dimples, or craters. According to the measurement results, amount of craters per unit of the laser cut surface area rises as the sheet thickness rises. The crater diameter rises together with the sheet thickness and distance from the upper sheet edge. The obtained data permit concluding that the defects like craters are observed predominantly in the case of thick sheets. The results agree with the hypothesis of crater formation as impact structures resulting from the melt drops getting on the cut channel walls upon separation from the cut front by the gas flow.

Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mörner, Nils-Axel

2014-05-01

Sea level may rise due to glacier melting, heat expansion of the oceanic water column, and redistribution of the waster masses - all these factors can be handled as to rates and amplitudes (provided one knows what one is talking about). In key areas over the entire Indian Ocean and in many Pacific Islands there are no traces of and sea level rise over the last 40-50 years. This is also the case for test-areas like Venice and the North Sea coasts. In the Kattegatt Sea one can fix the sea level factor to a maximum rise of 1.0-0.9 mm/year over the last century. The 204 tide gauges selected by NOAA for their global sea level monitoring provide a strong and sharp maximum (of 182 sites) in the range of 0.0-2.0 mm/yr. Satellite altimetry is said to give a rise of 3.2 mm/yr; this, however, is a value achieved after a quite subjective and surely erroneous "correction". The IPCC is talking about exceptionally much higher rates, and even worse are some "boy scouts" desperate try to launce real horror ratios. Physical laws set the frames of the rate and amount of ice melting, and so do records of events in the past (i.e. the geological records). During the Last Ice Age so much ice was accumulated on land, that the sea level dropped by about 120 m. When the process was reversed and ice melted under exceptionally strong climate forcing, sea level rose at a maximum rate of about 10 mm/yr (a meter per century). This can never happen under today's climate conditions. Even with IPCC's hypothetical scenarios, the true sea rise must be far less. When people like Rahmstorf (claiming 1 m or more by 2100) and Hansen (claiming a 4 m rise from 2080 to 2100) give their values, they exceed what is possible according to physical laws and accumulated geological knowledge. The expansion of the oceanic water column may reach amounts of sea level rise in the order of a few centimetres, at the most a decimetre. Old temperature measurements may record a temperature rise over the last 50 years in the order of 0.4o C. The improved ARGO measurements starting 2004 give virtually no change, however. The physically possible amount of expansion decreases, of course, with the decreasing water columns towards the coasts, and at the coasts it is zero (±0.0 mm). The redistribution of water masses in response to the Earth's rotation, surface current beat, wind stress, air pressure, etc. is an important factor. It gives local to regional changes, cancelled out on the global scale, however. From a geoethical point of view, it is of course quite blameworthy that IPCC excels in spreading these horror scenarios of a rapid, even accelerating, sea level rise. Besides, modern understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction shows that we are now on our way into grand solar minimum with severely colder climate - that is just the opposite to IPCC's talk about an accelerating warming. In science we should debate - but we should not dictate (as IPCC insist upon), and it is here the perspectives of geoethics comes into the picture.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

The birth and evolution of surface science: Child of the union of science and technology

PubMed Central

Duke, C. B.

2003-01-01

This article is an account of the birth and evolution of surface science as an interdisciplinary research area. Surface science emanated from the confluence of concepts and tools in physics and chemistry with technological innovations that made it possible to determine the structure and properties of surfaces and interfaces and the dynamics of chemical reactions at surfaces. The combination in the 1960s and 1970s of ultra-high-vacuum (i.e., P < 10−7 Pascal or 10−9 Torr) technology with the recognition that electrons in the energy range from 50 to 500 eV exhibited inelastic collision mean free paths of the order of a few angstroms fostered an explosion of activity. The results were a reformulation of the theory of electron solid scattering, the nearly universal use of electron spectroscopies for surface characterization, the rise of surface science as an independent interdisciplinary research area, and the emergence of the American Vacuum Society (AVS) as a major international scientific society. The rise of microelectronics in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in huge increases in computational power. These increases enabled more complex experiments and the utilization of density functional theory for the quantitative prediction of surface structure and dynamics. Development of scanning-probe microscopies in the 1990s led to atomic-resolution images of macroscopic surfaces and interfaces as well as videos of atoms moving about on surfaces during growth and diffusion. Scanning probes have since brought solid–liquid interfaces into the realm of atomic-level surface science, expanding its scope to more complex systems, including fragile biological materials and processes. PMID:12651946

Electro-thermal analysis of contact resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Nitin; Jain, Ishant; Reddy, Sudhakar; Gulhane, Nitin P.

2018-05-01

Electro-Mechanical characterization over copper samples are performed at the macroscopic level to understand the dependence of electrical contact resistance and temperature on surface roughness and contact pressure. For two different surface roughness levels of samples, six levels of load are selected and varied to capture the bulk temperature rise and electrical contact resistance. Accordingly, the copper samples are modelled and analysed using COMSOLTM as a simulation package and the results are validated by the experiments. The interface temperature during simulation is obtained using Mikic-Elastic correlation and by directly entering experimental contact resistance value. The load values are varied and then reversed in a similar fashion to capture the hysteresis losses. The governing equations & assumptions underlying these models and their significance are examined & possible justification for the observed variations are discussed. Equivalent Greenwood model is also predicted by mapping the results of the experiment.

Advancing Best Practices for the Formulation of Localized Sea Level Rise/Coastal Inundation Extremes Scenarios for Military Installations in the Pacific Islands

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-14

Development Program SLP - Sea Level Pressure SOI - Southern Oscillation Index SON - Statement of Need SST - Sea Surface Temperature iv SWL - Still Water...Level Pressure ( SLP ) from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis). Midway has known wave setup (Aucan et al., 2012) so we explored to what extent we could find an 12...Guam ONI 0.9 Kwajalein ONI 1.1 Pago Pago ONI 1.0 Honolulu SLP 1.3 Nawiliwili SLP 1.4 Kahului SLP 1.2 Hilo SLP 1.3 Mokuoloe SLP 1.2 Naha PDO 1.0 Kawaihae

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

PubMed

Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

2018-02-20

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Naish, Timothy R.; Levy, Richard H.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Gasson, Edward G. W.

2016-04-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above present values by the end of this century (Collins et al., 2013). If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (Rogelj et al., 2012). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Collins et al., 2013). We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

A Simplified Model to Predict the Effect of Increasing Atmospheric CO[subscript 2] on Carbonate Chemistry in the Ocean

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bozlee, Brian J.; Janebo, Maria; Jahn, Ginger

2008-01-01

The chemistry of dissolved inorganic carbon in seawater is reviewed and used to predict the potential effect of rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In agreement with more detailed treatments, we find that calcium carbonate (aragonite) may become unsaturated in cold surface seawater by the year 2100 C.E., resulting in the destruction…

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

PubMed

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-03-08

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

PubMed Central

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-01-01

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

Fault-dominated deformation in an ice dam during annual filling and drainage of a marginal lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Trabant, D.C.; Cunico, M.; Anderson, S.P.; Anderson, R. Scott; Fountain, A.G.; Malm, A.

2005-01-01

Ice-dammed Hidden Creek Lake, Alaska, USA, outbursts annually in about 2-3 days. As the lake fills, a wedge of water penetrates beneath the glacier, and the surface of this 'ice dam' rises; the surface then falls as the lake drains. Detailed optical surveying of the glacier near the lake allows characterization of ice-dam deformation. Surface uplift rate is close to the rate of lake-level rise within about 400 m of the lake, then decreases by 90% over about 100 m. Such a steep gradient in uplift rate cannot be explained in terms of ice-dam flexure. Moreover, survey targets spanning the zone of steep uplift gradient move relative to one another in a nearly reversible fashion as the lake fills and drains. Evidently, the zone of steep uplift gradient is a fault zone, with the faults penetrating the entire thickness of the ice dam. Fault motion is in a reverse sense as the lake fills, but in a normal sense as the lake drains. As the overall fault pattern is the same from year to year, even though ice is lost by calving, the faults must be regularly regenerated, probably by linkage of surface and bottom crevasses as ice is advected toward the lake basin.

Constraining coastal change: A morpho-sedimentological concept to infer sea-level oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauz, Barbara; Shen, Zhixiong

2016-04-01

One of the responders to Milankovitch-scale climate changes is sea level which, in turn, is a driver of coastal change. In literature, the sedimentary sequences representing the coastal change are often linked to high sea-level stands, to intermediate sea-level positions or to regressive shorelines. We note apparent contradictions that indicate a lack of concept and inconsistent usage of sea level-related terms. To overcome this, we combine an integrated morpho-sedimentological concept for microtidal, mid-latitudinal coasts with chronologies based on Bayesian statistics. The concept regards the coastal sedimentary system as a depositional complex consisting of shallow-marine, aeolian and alluvial facies. These facies are in juxtaposition and respond simultaneously to external forcing. Bayesian statistics constrains the timing of the sequence based on optical or radiocarbon ages. Here, we present the site Hergla located on the North African coast of the central Mediterranean Sea as a case study to illustrate how the approach helps eliminating contradictions. The site has been cited frequently for confirming the hypothesis of a global two peak sea-level highstand during the last interglacial (MIS 5e). The ~2 km cliff exposure at Hergla was surveyed, mapped, logged and sampled for further describing the sediments and their depositional environment through thin section and Bayesian modelling of optical ages. Using our concept based on sequence stratigraphy tools, the section is interpreted as representing a coastal barrier with two bounding surfaces in the succession. Both surfaces mark the falling sea level of, first, MIS 5e and, second, MIS 5a and hence bound the falling stage system tract of a forced regression. Part of the deposits between the two surfaces are pulled up onto the shoulder of a small rising horst and the associated tectonic event coincided with the MIS 5a sea-level rise enhancing locally the accommodation space for a second foreshore environment. Our presentation will provide theoretical background of the concept and critically discuss the global dataset for last interglacial sea-level oscillations using both the stratigraphic record and age distributions.

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au; Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au; Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values frommore » within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.« less

Nonuniform ocean acidification and attenuation of the ocean carbon sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fassbender, Andrea J.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Palevsky, Hilary I.

2017-08-01

Surface ocean carbon chemistry is changing rapidly. Partial pressures of carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) are rising, pH levels are declining, and the ocean's buffer capacity is eroding. Regional differences in short-term pH trends primarily have been attributed to physical and biological processes; however, heterogeneous seawater carbonate chemistry may also be playing an important role. Here we use Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 4 data to develop 12 month gridded climatologies of carbonate system variables and explore the coherent spatial patterns of ocean acidification and attenuation in the ocean carbon sink caused by rising atmospheric pCO2. High-latitude regions exhibit the highest pH and buffer capacity sensitivities to pCO2 increases, while the equatorial Pacific is uniquely insensitive due to a newly defined aqueous CO2 concentration effect. Importantly, dissimilar regional pH trends do not necessarily equate to dissimilar acidity ([H+]) trends, indicating that [H+] is a more useful metric of acidification.

Infrared thermal measurements of laser soft tissue ablation as a function of air/water coolant for Nd:YAG and diode lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gekelman, Diana; Yamamoto, Andrew; Oto, Marvin G.; White, Joel M.

2003-06-01

The purpose of this investigation was to measure the maximum temperature at the Nd:YAG and Diode lasers fiberoptic tips as a function of air/water coolant, during soft tissue ablation in pig jaws. A pulsed Nd:YAG laser (1064nm) and a Diode laser (800-830 nm) were used varying parameters of power, conditioning or not of the fiber tip, under 4 settings of air/water coolant. The maximum temperature at the fiber tip was measured using an infra-red camera and the interaction of the fiber with the porcine soft tissue was evaluated. A two-factor ANOVA was used for statistical analysis (p<=0.05). Nd:YAG laser interaction with soft tissues produced temperatures levels directly proportional to power increase, but the conditioning of the fiber tip did not influence the temperature rise. On the other hand, conditioning of the fiber tip did influence the temperature rise for Diode laser. The addition of air/water coolant, for both lasers, did not promote temperature rise consistent with cutting and coagulation of porcine soft tissue. Laser parameters affect the fiberoptic surface temperature, and the addition of air/water coolant significantly lowered surface temperature on the fiberoptic tip for all lasers and parameters tested.

Time-lapse camera observations of gas piston activity at Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō, Kīlauea volcano, Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orr, Tim R.; Rea, James

2012-01-01

Gas pistoning is a type of eruptive behavior described first at Kīlauea volcano and characterized by the (commonly) cyclic rise and fall of the lava surface within a volcanic vent or lava lake. Though recognized for decades, its cause continues to be debated, and determining why and when it occurs has important implications for understanding vesiculation and outgassing processes at basaltic volcanoes. Here, we describe gas piston activity that occurred at the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō cone, in Kīlauea’s east rift zone, during June 2006. Direct, detailed measurements of lava level, made from time-lapse camera images captured at close range, show that the gas pistons during the study period lasted from 2 to 60 min, had volumes ranging from 14 to 104 m3, displayed a slowing rise rate of the lava surface, and had an average gas release duration of 49 s. Our data are inconsistent with gas pistoning models that invoke gas slug rise or a dynamic pressure balance but are compatible with models which appeal to gas accumulation and loss near the top of the lava column, possibly through the generation and collapse of a foam layer.

Epitaxial strain relaxation by provoking edge dislocation dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soufi, A.; El-Hami, K.

2018-02-01

Thin solid films have been used in various devices and engineering systems such as rapid development of highly integrated electronic circuits, the use of surface coatings to protect structural materials in high temperature environments, and thin films are integral parts of many micro-electro-mechanical systems designed to serve as sensors, actuators. Among techniques of ultra-thin films deposition, the heteroepitaxial method becomes the most useful at nanoscale level to obtain performed materials in various applications areas. On the other hand, stresses that appeared during the elaboration of thin films could rise deformations and fractures in materials. The key solution to solve this problem at the nanoscale level is the nucleation of interface dislocations from free surfaces. By provoking edge dislocation dipoles we obtained a strain relaxation in thin films. Moreover, the dynamic of nucleation in edge dislocations from free lateral surfaces was also studied.

Technology of surface wastewater purification, including high-rise construction areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsyba, Anna; Skolubovich, Yury

2018-03-01

Despite on the improvements in the quality of high-rise construction areas and industrial wastewater treatment, the pollution of water bodies continues to increase. This is due to the organized and unorganized surface untreated sewage entry into the reservoirs. The qualitative analysis of some cities' surface sewage composition is carried out in the work. Based on the published literature review, the characteristic contamination present in surface wastewater was identified. The paper proposes a new technology for the treatment of surface sewage and presents the results of preliminary studies.

Characterizing the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the karst aquifer of Fangshan, Beijing (China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Haibo; Wei, Jiahua; Wang, Rong; Xin, Baodong

2017-03-01

Correct understanding of groundwater/surface-water (GW-SW) interaction in karst systems is of greatest importance for managing the water resources. A typical karst region, Fangshan in northern China, was selected as a case study. Groundwater levels and hydrochemistry analyses, together with isotope data based on hydrogeological field investigations, were used to assess the GW-SW interaction. Chemistry data reveal that water type and the concentration of cations in the groundwater are consistent with those of the surface water. Stable isotope ratios of all samples are close to the local meteoric water line, and the 3H concentrations of surface water and groundwater samples are close to that of rainfall, so isotopes also confirm that karst groundwater is recharged by rainfall. Cross-correlation analysis reveals that rainfall leads to a rise in groundwater level with a lag time of 2 months and groundwater exploitation leads to a fall within 1 month. Spectral analysis also reveals that groundwater level, groundwater exploitation and rainfall have significantly similar response periods, indicating their possible inter-relationship. Furthermore, a multiple nonlinear regression model indicates that groundwater level can be negatively correlated with groundwater exploitation, and positively correlated with rainfall. The overall results revealed that groundwater level has a close correlation with groundwater exploitation and rainfall, and they are indicative of a close hydraulic connection and interaction between surface water and groundwater in this karst system.

Potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer, west-central Florida, September 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, A.G.

2011-01-01

This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Southwest Florida Water Management District, is part of a semi-annual series of Upper Floridan aquifer potentiometric-surface map reports for west-central Florida. Potentiometric surface maps have been prepared for January 1964, May 1969, May 1971, May 1973, May 1974, and for each May and September since 1975. Water-level data are collected in May and September each year to show the approximate annual low and high water-level conditions, respectively. This map report shows the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer measured in September 2010. The potentiometric surface is an imaginary surface connecting points of equal altitude to which water will rise in tightly-cased wells that tap a confined aquifer system (Lohman, 1979). This map represents water-level conditions near the end of the wet season, when groundwater levels usually are at an annual high and withdrawals for agricultural use typically are low. The cumulative average rainfall of 53.17 inches for west-central Florida (from October 2009 through September 2010) was 0.41 inches above the historical cumulative average of 52.76 inches (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2010). Historical cumulative averages are calculated from regional rainfall summary reports (1915 to most recent complete calendar year) and are updated monthly by the Southwest Florida Water Management District.

The global signature of post-1900 land ice wastage on vertical land motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, Riccardo; Frederikse, Thomas; King, Matt; Marzeion, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel

2017-04-01

The amount of ice stored on land has strongly declined during the 20th century, and melt rates showed a significant acceleration over the last two decades. Land ice wastage is well known to be one of the main drivers of global mean sea-level rise, as widely discussed in the literature and reflected in the last assessment report of the IPCC. A less obvious effect of melting land ice is the response of the solid earth to mass redistribution on its surface, which, in the first approximation, results in land uplift where the load reduces (e.g., close to the meltwater sources) and land subsidence where the load increases (e.g., under the rising oceans). This effect is nowadays well known within the cryospheric and sea level communities. However, what is often not realized is that the solid earth response is a truly global effect: a localized mass change does cause a large deformation signal in its proximity, but also causes a change of the position of every other point on the Earth's surface. The theory of the Earth's elastic response to changing surface loads forms the basis of the 'sea-level equation', which allows sea-level fingerprints of continental mass change to be computed. In this paper, we provide the first dedicated analysis of global vertical land motion driven by land ice wastage. By means of established techniques to compute the solid earth elastic response to surface load changes and the most recent datasets of glacier and ice sheet mass change, we show that land ice loss currently leads to vertical deformation rates of several tenths of mm per year at mid-latitudes, especially over the Northern Hemisphere where most sources are located. In combination with the improved accuracy of space geodetic techniques (e.g., Global Navigation Satellite Systems), this means that the effect of ice melt is non-negligible over a large part of the continents. In particular, we show how deformation rates have been strongly varying through the last century, which implies that they should be properly modelled before interpreting and extrapolating recent observations of vertical land motion and sea level change.

A Miocene wave-dominated estuarine system in the Paraíba Basin, northeastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandini, Rosana; Rossetti, Dilce de Fátima; Netto, Renata Guimarães; Góes, Ana Maria

2017-11-01

A number of publications have documented the effect of the Miocene transgression on several coasts of the world. However, this event is incompletely documented along the Brazilian margin, despite the existence of an impressive record of Miocene deposits exposed mostly as several coastal cliffs along more than 5000 km of distance. The transgressive nature of Miocene deposits, so far recognized only in a few localities of northeastern Brazil, needs to be amplified in order to better characterize the impact of the Miocene transgression in eastern South America. In this work, we provide facies analysis of early/middle Miocene strata exposed in the Paraíba Basin, northeastern Brazil, aiming reconstruct the depositional paleoenvironments and analyze their evolution within the context of relative sea-level fluctuations data. The results revealed deposits characterized by several features that were related to the action of tidal currents, such as alternating thicker/thinner forest packages, abundant reactivation surfaces, mud drapes and oppositely-dipping (herringbone) cross sets. These sedimentary structures were associated with an ichnological assemblage indicative of marine-influenced and brackish water, best represented by Ophiomorpha, Planolites-Palaeophycus-Thalassinoides and Thallassinoides-Planolites-Palaeophycus ichnofabrics. Sedimentation occurred in environments consisting of estuarine channel, estuarine central basin, tidal inlet/tidal channel, tidal delta/washover, tidal flat/shoal and foreshore, which were related to an estuarine setting, at least in part of a wave-dominated type. Analysis of facies stratal patterns led to suggest that the estuarine deposits of the Paraíba Basin reflect a rise in relative sea level probably during the transgressive and/or highstand stage of a depositional sequence formed directly overlying Cretaceous rocks. This rise can be correlated with the worldwide early/mid Miocene marine transgression. However, while the eustatic sea level remained rising through the middle Miocene, the estuarine sedimentation in the study area was cut off, being replaced by a regional unconformity marked by lateritic paleosols. Thus, a relative sea-level fall is recorded in the Paraíba Basin while the eustatic sea level remained rising through the middle Miocene, before its fall in the Tortonian. It follows that other factors, such as tectonics, is proposed to explain the mid-Miocene fall in sea level along the Paraíba coast, while the eustatic sea level was rising.

Plants mediate soil organic matter decomposition in response to sea level rise.

PubMed

Mueller, Peter; Jensen, Kai; Megonigal, James Patrick

2016-01-01

Tidal marshes have a large capacity for producing and storing organic matter, making their role in the global carbon budget disproportionate to land area. Most of the organic matter stored in these systems is in soils where it contributes 2-5 times more to surface accretion than an equal mass of minerals. Soil organic matter (SOM) sequestration is the primary process by which tidal marshes become perched high in the tidal frame, decreasing their vulnerability to accelerated relative sea level rise (RSLR). Plant growth responses to RSLR are well understood and represented in century-scale forecast models of soil surface elevation change. We understand far less about the response of SOM decomposition to accelerated RSLR. Here we quantified the effects of flooding depth and duration on SOM decomposition by exposing planted and unplanted field-based mesocosms to experimentally manipulated relative sea level over two consecutive growing seasons. SOM decomposition was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated via δ(13) CO2 . Despite the dominant paradigm that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM decomposition in the absence of plants was not sensitive to flooding depth and duration. The presence of plants had a dramatic effect on SOM decomposition, increasing SOM-derived CO2 flux by up to 267% and 125% (in 2012 and 2013, respectively) compared to unplanted controls in the two growing seasons. Furthermore, plant stimulation of SOM decomposition was strongly and positively related to plant biomass and in particular aboveground biomass. We conclude that SOM decomposition rates are not directly driven by relative sea level and its effect on oxygen diffusion through soil, but indirectly by plant responses to relative sea level. If this result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for models of SOM accumulation and surface elevation change in response to accelerated RSLR. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Base of moderately saline ground water in the Uinta Basin, Utah, with an introductory section describing the methods used in determining its position

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howells, Lewis; Longson, M.S.; Hunt, Gilbert L.

1987-01-01

The base of the moderately saline water (water that contains from 3,000 to 10,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids) was mapped by using available water-quality data and by determining formation-water resistivities from geophysical well logs based on the resistivity-porosity, spontaneous potential, and resistivity-ratio methods. The contour map developed from these data showed a mound of very saline and briny water, mostly of sodium chloride and sodium bicarbonate type, in most of that part of the Uinta Basin that is underlain by either the Green River or Wasatch Formations. Along its northern edge, the mound rises steeply from below sea level to within 2,000 feet of the land surface and, locally, to land surface. Along its southern edge, the mound rises less steeply and is more complex in outline. This body of very saline to briny water may be a lens; many wells or test holes drilled within the area underlain by the mound re-entered fresh to moderately saline water at depths of 8,000 to 15,000 feet below lam surface.

Multi-linear regression of sea level in the south west Pacific as a first step towards local sea level projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Vandhna; Meyssignac, Benoit; Melet, Angélique; Ganachaud, Alexandre

2017-04-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years is up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we attempt to reconstruct sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka, Noumea - Fiji and New Caledonia) as a mutiple-linear regression of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on interannual-to-decadal scale variability, and lower (including the global mean sea level rise) over the 1979-2014 period. Sea levels are taken from tide gauge records and the ORAS4 reanalysis dataset, and are expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes as a preliminary step. The key development in our methodology is using leading wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component. This is based on the knowledge that wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. The analysis is primarily based on correlation between local sea level and selected predictors, the dominant one being wind stress curl. In the first step, proxy boxes for wind stress curl are determined via regions of highest correlation. The proportion of sea level explained via linear regression is then removed, leaving a residual. This residual is then correlated with other locally acting potential predictors: halosteric sea level, the zonal and meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature. The statistically significant predictors are used in a multi-linear regression function to simulate the observed sea level. The method is able to reproduce between 40 to 80% of the variance in observed sea level. Based on the skill of the model, it has high potential in sea level projection and downscaling studies.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Forced convection in the wakes of impacting and sliding bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Reilly Meehan, R.; Williams, N. P.; Donnelly, B.; Persoons, T.; Nolan, K.; Murray, D. B.

2017-09-01

Both vapour and gas bubbles are known to significantly increase heat transfer rates between a heated surface and the surrounding fluid, even with no phase change. The cooling structures observed are highly temporal, intricate and complex, with a full description of the surface cooling phenomena not yet available. The current study uses high speed infrared thermography to measure the surface temperature and determine the convective heat flux enhancement associated with the interaction of a single air bubble with a heated, inclined surface. This process can be discretised into the initial impact, in which enhancement levels in excess of 20 times natural convection are observed, and the subsequent sliding behaviour, with more moderate maximum enhancement levels of 8 times natural convection. In both cases, localised regions of suppressed heat transfer are also observed due to the recirculation of warm fluid displaced from the thermal boundary layer with the surface. The cooling patterns observed herein are consistent with the interaction between an undulating wake containing multiple hairpin vortex loops and the thermal boundary layer that exists under the surface, with the initial nature of this enhancement and suppression dependent on the particular point on its rising path at which the bubble impacts the surface.

Parasites and Holocene sea-level rise: Recurrent upsurges in trematode infestation linked to repeated flooding events in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarponi, Daniele; Azzarone, Michele; Kowalewski, Michał; Huntley, John Warren

2017-04-01

The accelerating increase in global temperature and concomitant sea level rise may result in an increased prevalence (i.e. infestation frequency) of many pathogens and parasites. Using the Holocene brackish deposits of the Po Plain, we evaluate this issue from a historical perspective by documenting temporal changes in trematode infestation of mollusk hosts during high-frequency (102-103 yrs) sea-level fluctuations that took place over the most recent millennia. During that time interval, the dominant bivalve species, Abra segmentum, was frequently infested by trematodes. Median body size was significantly larger in infested individuals (p = 2.21*10-34), likely reflecting accumulation of parasites with ontogenetic age. Prevalence estimates were significantly elevated (p < 0.01) in samples of A. segmentum associated with flooding surfaces and significantly depressed (p < 0.01) in intervening samples. In contrast, temporal trends in host body size, host availability, salinity, diversity, turnover, and community structure did not correlate significantly with parasite prevalence. The results reported here reinforce the recently proposed hypothesis that increasing trematode prevalence is linked to flooding events, a pattern now documented in shallow marine and estuarine settings on two continents, in both modern and fossil taxa. Consequently, the ongoing anthropogenic warming and sea-level rise is expected to trigger a significant upsurge in trematode prevalence, resulting in suppressed fecundity of common benthic organisms and negative impacts on marine ecosystems and ecosystem services.

Potentiometric Surface of the Ozark Aquifer in Northern Arkansas, 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugh, Aaron L.

2008-01-01

The Ozark aquifer in northern Arkansas is composed of dolomite, limestone, sandstone, and shale of Late Cambrian to Middle Devonian age, and ranges in thickness from approximately 1,100 feet to more than 4,000 feet. Hydrologically, the aquifer is complex, characterized by discrete and discontinuous flow components with large variations in permeability. The potentiometric-surface map, based on 58 well and 5 spring water-level measurements collected in 2007 in Arkansas and Missouri, has a maximum water-level altitude measurement of 1,169 feet in Carroll County and a minimum water-level altitude measurement of 118 feet in Randolph County. Regionally, the flow within the aquifer is to the south and southeast in the eastern and central part of the study area and to the west, northwest, and north in the western part of the study area. Comparing the 2007 potentiometric-surface map with a predevelopment potentiometric-surface map indicates general agreement between the two surfaces except in the northwestern part of the study area. Potentiometric-surface differences can be attributed to withdrawals related to increasing population, changes in public-supply sources, processes or water withdrawals outside the study area, or differences in data-collection or map-construction methods. The rapidly increasing population within the study area appears to have some effect on ground-water levels. Although, the effect appears to have been minimized by the development and use of surface-water distribution infrastructure, suggesting most of the incoming populations are fulfilling their water needs from surface-water sources. The conversion of some users from ground water to surface water may be allowing water levels in wells to recover (rise) or decline at a slower rate, such as in Benton, Carroll, and Washington Counties.

July 2012 Greenland melt extent enhanced by low-level liquid clouds.

PubMed

Bennartz, R; Shupe, M D; Turner, D D; Walden, V P; Steffen, K; Cox, C J; Kulie, M S; Miller, N B; Pettersen, C

2013-04-04

Melting of the world's major ice sheets can affect human and environmental conditions by contributing to sea-level rise. In July 2012, an historically rare period of extended surface melting was observed across almost the entire Greenland ice sheet, raising questions about the frequency and spatial extent of such events. Here we show that low-level clouds consisting of liquid water droplets ('liquid clouds'), via their radiative effects, played a key part in this melt event by increasing near-surface temperatures. We used a suite of surface-based observations, remote sensing data, and a surface energy-balance model. At the critical surface melt time, the clouds were optically thick enough and low enough to enhance the downwelling infrared flux at the surface. At the same time they were optically thin enough to allow sufficient solar radiation to penetrate through them and raise surface temperatures above the melting point. Outside this narrow range in cloud optical thickness, the radiative contribution to the surface energy budget would have been diminished, and the spatial extent of this melting event would have been smaller. We further show that these thin, low-level liquid clouds occur frequently, both over Greenland and across the Arctic, being present around 30-50 per cent of the time. Our results may help to explain the difficulties that global climate models have in simulating the Arctic surface energy budget, particularly as models tend to under-predict the formation of optically thin liquid clouds at supercooled temperatures--a process potentially necessary to account fully for temperature feedbacks in a warming Arctic climate.

Potentiometric surface of the Ozark aquifer in northern Arkansas, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czarnecki, John B.; Pugh, Aaron L.; Blackstock, Joshua M.

2014-01-01

The Ozark aquifer in northern Arkansas is composed of dolomite, limestone, sandstone, and shale of Late Cambrian to Middle Devonian age and ranges in thickness from approximately 1,100 feet to more than 4,000 feet. Hydrologically, the aquifer is complex, characterized by discrete and discontinuous flow components with large variations in permeability. The potentiometric-surface map, based on 56 well and 5 spring water-level measurements made in 2010 in Arkansas and Missouri, has a maximum water-level altitude measurement of 1,174 feet in Carroll County and a minimum water-level altitude measurement of 120 feet in Randolph County. Regionally, the flow within the aquifer is to the south and southeast in the eastern and central part of the study area and to the west, northwest, and north in the western part of the study area. Water-level altitudes changed 0.5 feet or less in 31 out of 56 wells measured between 2007 and 2010. Despite rapidly increasing population within the study area, the increase appears to have minimal effect on groundwater levels, although the effect may have been minimized by the development and use of surface-water distribution infrastructure, suggesting that most of the incoming populations are fulfilling their water needs from surface-water sources. The conversion of some users from groundwater to surface water may be allowing water levels in some wells to recover (rise) or decline at a slower rate in some areas such as in Benton, Carroll, and Washington Counties.

Water levels in observation wells in Nebraska during 1955

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keech, C.F.

1956-01-01

The objective of the dbservation-well program in Nebraska is to provide an evaluation of the status of the ground-water supplies. Many uses for water-.level data are known but not all potential uses can be forseen. Among the important uses are the following:To indicate the status of ground water in storage or in transit and the availability of supplies.To show the trend of ground-water supplies and the outlook for the future.To estimate or forcast the base flow of streams.To indicate areas in which the water level is approaching too close to the land surface (water-logging) or is receding toward economic limits of lift or tow rd impairment by water of poor quality.To provide long-term vidence for evaluating the effectiveness of land-management and water...0 nservation programs in relation to water conservation actually of ected, and for use in basin or "watershed" studies.To provide longterm ontinuous records to serve as a framework to which short-term records collected during intensive investigation may be related.The water level in an observation well functions as a gage to indicate the position of the water table o The water table is defined as the upper surface of the zone of saturation except where that surface is formed by overlying impermeable materials. The water table is also the boundary between the zone of saturation and the zone of aeration. It is not a level surface but is a sloping surface that has many irregularities, and it often conforms in a general way to the land surface. The irregularities are caused by several factors. In places where the recharge to the ground-water reservoir is exceptionally large, the water-table may rise to form a mound from which the water slowly spreads. Depressions or troughs in the water table indicate places where the ground water is discharging, as along streams that are below the normal level of the water table, or indicate places where water is being withdrawn by wells or vegetation.The several factors that influence the water table vary in fact and amount from time to time because of changes in weather and the water requirements of vegetation and man; thus, the water table is nearly always rising or falling.The fluctuations of the water table are shown by the changes in water levels in wells. Thus, the rate and amount of the fluctuation of the water table can be ascertained by observing the water levels in wells, and the magnitude of the several factors effecting the position of the water table can be interpreted by analyzing the water—level data.Water-level measurements are given, in this report, in feet below the land surface at the well site. Water levels that are above land surface are preceded by a plus (+) sign, whereas those below land surface have no sign but are understood to be minus (-). The words "land-surface datum" are abbreviated "lsd" in tables of this report.The altitude above mean sea level (msl) of the land surface at many of the well sites has been determined and is included in the tables of this report.Lower case letters which appear in the table of water level measurements indicate the following: 6', nearby well pumped recently; f, dry; g, measured by outside agency; and j, frozen.Twenty-.six observation wells in Nebraska are equipped with recording gages. Each recording gage produces a continuous graph of water-level fluctuations in the well. Only the lowest water level on the last day of record in each month, as recorded by the gage, is given in this report; the complete record is on file in the office of the U. S. Geological Survey in Lincoln, Nebr.

Non-invasive measurement of the temperature rise in tissue surrounding a kidney stone subjected to ultrasonic propulsion.

PubMed

Oweis, Ghanem F; Dunmire, Barbrina L; Cunitz, Bryan W; Bailey, Michael R

2015-01-01

Transcutaneous focused ultrasound (US) is used to propel kidney stones using acoustic radiation force. It is important to estimate the level of heating generated at the stone/tissue interface for safety assessment. An in-vitro experiment is conducted to measure the temperature rise in a tissue-mimicking phantom with an embedded artificial stone and subjected to a focused beam from an imaging US array. A novel optical-imaging-based thermometry method is described using an optically clear tissue phantom. Measurements are compared to the output from a fine wire thermocouple placed on the stone surface. The optical method has good sensitivity, and it does not suffer from artificial viscous heating typically observed with invasive probes and thermocouples.

Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs.

Destabilisation of an Arctic ice cap triggered by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer-melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Kääb, A.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2014-05-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the Polar Regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic aperture radar based velocity maps from the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, that demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of the ice cap's largest drainage basin, Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2 ± 1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. After accounting for the terminus advance, the related sea-level rise contribution of 7.2 ± 2.6 Gt a-1 matches the recent annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago. Our study highlights the importance of dynamic glacier wastage and illuminates mechanisms that may trigger a sustained increase in dynamic glacier wastage or the disintegration of ice-sheets in response to climate warming, which is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

Olympus Mons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdin, P.

2000-11-01

The largest volcano on Mars, and the largest in the solar system, centered at 18.4 °N, 133.1 °W. It coincides with the albedo feature visible from Earth known as Nix Olympica, the `Snows of Olympus', after the mountain in Greece which in legend was the home of the gods. Olympus Mons rises to a height of 27 km above Mars's mean surface level, and in its greatest horizontal dimension measures 624 k...

Root nodulation in the wetland tree Pterocarpus officinalis along coastal and montane systems of Northeast of Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Rachel Pérez; Tamara Heartsill Scalley

2008-01-01

In Puerto Rico, brackish water wetlands were dominated by Pterocarpus officinalis previous to extensive deforestation due to agriculture. Today remnant wetlands are limited to small areas that are threatened by rise in sea level. We examined the root nodules of P. officinalis in montane and coastal sites and at 0, 10, 20 cm from the surface to determine if site...

Ice-Cliff Failure via Retrogressive Slumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Holland, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise from warming-induced ice-sheet shrinkage remain notably uncertain. Removal of most of an ice sheet by surface melting alone requires centuries to millennia. Oceanic warming may accelerate loss by removing buttressing ice shelves and thereby speeding flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, but, until recently, modeled timescales for major dynamic ice-sheet shrinkage were centuries or longer. Beyond certain thresholds, however, observations show that warming removes floating ice shelves, leaving grounded ice cliffs from which icebergs break off directly. Cliffs higher than some limit experience rapid structural failure. Recent parameterization of this process in a comprehensive ice-flow model produced much faster sea-level rise from future rapid warming than in previous modeling studies, through formation and retreat of tall ice cliffs. Fully physical representations of this process are not yet available, however. Here, we use modeling guided by terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland to show that cliffs will fail by slumping and trigger rapid retreat at a threshold height that, in crevassed ice with surface melting, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today, but may be roughly twice that (180-275 m) in mechanically-competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.

Stabilization of arsenic and lead by magnesium oxide (MgO) in different seawater concentrations.

PubMed

Kameda, Kentaro; Hashimoto, Yohey; Ok, Yong Sik

2018-02-01

Ongoing sea level rise will have a major impact on mobility and migration of contaminants by changing a number of natural phenomena that alter geochemistry and hydrology of subsurface environment. In-situ immobilization techniques may be a promising remediation strategy for mitigating contaminant mobility induced by sea level rise. This study investigated the reaction mechanisms of magnesium oxide (MgO) with aqueous Pb and As under freshwater and seawater using XAFS spectroscopy. Initial concentrations of Pb and As in freshwater strongly controlled the characteristics of the reaction product of MgO. Our study revealed that i) the removal of aqueous Pb and As by MgO was increased by the elevation of seawater concentration, and ii) the removal of As was attributed primarily to (inner-sphere) surface adsorption on MgO, independent on seawater concentrations, and iii) the retention mechanism of Pb was dependent on seawater concentrations where formations of Pb oxides and adsorption on the MgO surface were predominant in solutions with low and high salinity, respectively. The release of As fixed with MgO significantly increased in seawater compared to freshwater, although the amount of As desorbed accounted for <0.2% of total As. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

25 CFR 1000.363 - What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? 1000.363 Section 1000.363 Indians OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT... Trust Evaluations § 1000.363 What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? Where problems not rising to the level of imminent jeopardy are caused by...

25 CFR 1000.363 - What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? 1000.363 Section 1000.363 Indians OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT... Trust Evaluations § 1000.363 What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? Where problems not rising to the level of imminent jeopardy are caused by...

Marshes to mudflats—Effects of sea-level rise on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, Karen M.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Freeman, Chase M.; Janousek, Christopher N.; Powelson, Katherine W.; Gutenspergen, Glenn R.; Takekawa, John Y.

2015-11-17

In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands support a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries and flood protection. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the effects of sea-level rise on nine tidal marshes in Washington and Oregon between 2012 and 2015, with the goal of providing scientific data to support future coastal planning and conservation. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, vegetation structure, as well as recent and historical sediment accretion rates, to assess and model how sea-level rise may alter these ecosystems in the future. Multiple factors, including initial elevation, marsh productivity, sediment availability, and rates of sea-level rise, affected marsh persistence. Under a low sea-level rise scenario, all marshes remained vegetated with little change in the present configuration of communities of marsh plants or gradually increased proportions of middle-, high-, or transition-elevation zones of marsh vegetation. However, at most sites, mid sea-level rise projections led to loss of habitat of middle and high marshes and a gain of low marshes. Under a high sea-level rise scenario, marshes at most sites eventually converted to intertidal mudflats. Two sites (Grays Harbor and Willapa) seemed to have the most resilience to a high rate of rise in sea-level, persisting as low marsh until at least 2110. Our main model finding is that most tidal marsh study sites are resilient to sea-level rise over the next 50–70 years, but that sea-level rise will eventually outpace marsh accretion and drown most habitats of high and middle marshes by 2110.

Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

2017-04-01

Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

Comparison of modelled runoff with observed proglacial discharge across the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A.; van As, D.; Overeem, I.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.; Fettweis, X.; Pitcher, L. H.; Hubbard, A.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet surface ablation now dominates its total mass loss contributions to sea-level rise. Despite the increasing importance of Greenland's sea-level contribution, a quantitative inter-comparison between modeled and measured melt, runoff and discharge across multiple drainage basins is conspicuously lacking. Here we investigate the accuracy of model discharge estimates from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR v3.5.2) regional climate model by comparison with in situ proglacial river discharge measurements at three West Greenland drainage basins - North River (Thule), Watson River (Kangerlussuaq), and Naujat Kuat River (Nuuk). At each target catchment, we: 1) determine optimal drainage basin delineations; 2) assess primary drivers of melt; 3) evaluate MAR at daily, 5-, 10- and 20-day time scales; and 4) identify potential sources for model-observation discrepancies. Our results reveal that MAR resolves daily discharge variability poorly in the Nuuk and Thule basins (r2 = 0.4-0.5), but does capture variability over 5-, 10-, and 20-day means (r2 > 0.7). Model agreement with river flow data, though, is reduced during periods of peak discharge, particularly for the exceptional melt and discharge events of July 2012. Daily discharge is best captured by MAR across the Watson River basin, whilst there is lower correspondence between modeled and observed discharge at the Thule and Naujat Kuat River basins. We link the main source of model error to an underestimation of cloud cover, overestimation of surface albedo, and apparent warm bias in near-surface air temperatures. For future inter-comparison, we recommend using observations from catchments that have a self-contained and well-defined drainage area and an accurate discharge record over variable years coincident with a reliable automatic weather station record. Our study highlights the importance of improving MAR modeled surface albedo, cloud cover representation, and delay functions to reduce model error and to improve prediction of Greenland's future runoff contribution to global sea level rise.

Identifying risk factors for exposure to culturable allergenic moulds in energy efficient homes by using highly specific monoclonal antibodies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharpe, Richard A.; Cocq, Kate Le; Nikolaou, Vasilis

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in identifying culturable allergenic fungi present in visible mould growth in energy efficient homes, and to identify risk factors for exposure to these known allergenic fungi. Swabs were taken from fungal contaminated surfaces and culturable yeasts and moulds isolated by using mycological culture. Soluble antigens from cultures were tested by ELISA using mAbs specific to the culturable allergenic fungi Aspergillus and Penicillium spp., Ulocladium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum spp., Cladosporium spp., Fusarium spp., and Trichoderma spp. Diagnostic accuracies of the ELISA tests were determined by sequencing ofmore » the internally transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1)-5.8S-ITS2-encoding regions of recovered fungi following ELISA. There was 100% concordance between the two methods, with ELISAs providing genus-level identity and ITS sequencing providing species-level identities (210 out of 210 tested). Species of Aspergillus/Penicillium, Cladosporium, Ulocladium/Alternaria/Epicoccum, Fusarium and Trichoderma were detected in 82% of the samples. The presence of condensation was associated with an increased risk of surfaces being contaminated by Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. and Cladosporium spp., whereas moisture within the building fabric (water ingress/rising damp) was only associated with increased risk of Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. Property type and energy efficiency levels were found to moderate the risk of indoor surfaces becoming contaminated with Aspergillus/Penicillium and Cladosporium which in turn was modified by the presence of condensation, water ingress and rising damp, consistent with previous literature. - Highlights: • Monoclonal antibodies were used to track culturable allergenic moulds in homes. • Allergenic moulds were recovered from 82% of swabs from contaminated surfaces. • The mAbs were highly specific with 100% agreement to PCR of recovered fungi. • Improvements to energy efficiency lowered risk of exposure to allergenic fungi.« less

Sea-level rise in New Jersey over the past 5000 years: Implications to anthropogenic changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kenneth G.; Sugarman, Peter J.; Browning, James V.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Stanley, Alissa; Kahn, Alicia; Uptegrove, Jane; Aucott, Michael

2009-01-01

We present a mid to late Holocene sea-level record derived from drilling the New Jersey coast that shows a relatively constant rise of 1.8??mm/yr from ~ 5000 to 500 calibrated calendar years before present (yrBP). This contrasts with previous New Jersey estimates that showed only 0.5??mm/yr rise since 2000??yrBP. Comparison with other Mid-Atlantic sea-level records (Delaware to southern New England) indicates surprising uniformity considering different proximities to the peripheral bulge of the Laurentide ice sheet, with a relative rise throughout the region of ~ 1.7-1.9??mm/yr since ~ 5000??yrBP. This regional sea-level rise includes both: 1) global sea-level (eustatic) rise; and 2) far-field geoidal subsidence (estimated as ~ 0.8-1.4??mm/yr today) due to removal of the Laurentide ice sheet and water loading. Correcting for geoidal subsidence, the U.S. east coast records suggest a global sea-level (eustatic) rise of ~ 0.4-1.0??mm/yr (with a best estimate of 0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr) since 5000??yrBP. Comparison with other records provides a best estimate of pre-anthropogenic global sea-level rise of < 1.0??mm/yr from 5000 until ~ 200??yrBP. Tide gauge data indicate a 20th century rate of eustatic rise of 1.8??mm/yr, whereas both tide gauge and satellite data suggest an increase in the rate of rise to ~ 3.3??mm/yr from 1993-2006 AD. This indicates that the modern rise (~ 3.3??mm/yr) is significantly higher than the pre-anthropogenic rise (0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr). ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

PubMed Central

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P.; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C.

2016-01-01

Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age. PMID:27821743

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C.

PubMed

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Riva, Riccardo E M; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C

2016-11-22

Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

Assessment of ground-water contamination near Lantana landfill, Southeast Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, G.M.; Higer, A.L.

1988-01-01

The Lantana landfill located in Palm Beach County rises 40 to 50 feet above normal ground level and consists of about 250 acres of compacted garbage and trash, some below the water table. Surface-resistivity measurements and water-quality analyses indicate a contaminant plume along the eastern perimeter of the landfill that has migrated about 300 feet eastward toward an adjacent lake. Concentrations of chloride, ammonia, and nitrate were elevated within the plume. The surficial aquifer consists primarily of sand from 0 to about 68 feet, and sand interbedded with sandstone and limestone from 68 to 220 feet. A slight hydraulic gradient exists, indicating ground-water movement from the landfill toward a lake to the east. Analyses of geoelectric, lithologic, and water-quality data indicate that surface geophysical techniques were successful in determining the areal and vertical extent of leachate migration at this location.The Lantana landfill located in Palm Beach County rises 40 to 50 feet above normal ground level and consists of about 250 acres of compacted garbage and trash, some below the water table. Surface-resistivity measurements and water-quality analyses indicate a contaminant plume along the eastern perimeter of the landfill that has migrated about 300 feet eastward toward an adjacent lake. Concentrations of chloride, ammonia, and nitrate were elevated within the plume. The surficial aquifer consists primarily of sand from 0 to about 68 feet, and sand interbedded with sandstone and limestone from 68 to 220 feet. A slight hydraulic gradient exists, indicating ground-water movement from the landfill toward a lake to the east. Analyses of geoelectric, lithologic, and water-quality data indicate that surface geophysical techniques were successful in determining the areal and vertical extent of leachate migration at this location.

Applying downscaled Global Climate Model data to a groundwater model of the Suwannee River Basin, Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Davis, J. Hal

2016-01-01

The higher future rainfall causes simulated groundwater levels to rise in areas where they are deep and have little ET in either the recent or future case. However, in areas where groundwater levels were originally near the surface, the greater future ET causes groundwater levels to become lower despite the higher projected rainfall. The general implication is that unsaturated zone depth could be more spatially uniform in the future and vegetation that requires a range of conditions (substantially wetter or drier than aver¬age) could be detrimentally affected. This vegetation would include wetland species, especially in areas inland from the coast.

Effect of Strong Acid Functional Groups on Electrode Rise Potential in Capacitive Mixing by Double Layer Expansion

DOE PAGES

Hatzell, Marta C.; Raju, Muralikrishna; Watson, Valerie J.; ...

2014-11-03

We report that the amount of salinity-gradient energy that can be obtained through capacitive mixing based on double layer expansion depends on the extent the electric double layer (EDL) is altered in a low salt concentration (LC) electrolyte (e.g., river water). We show that the electrode-rise potential, which is a measure of the EDL perturbation process, was significantly (P = 10 –5) correlated to the concentration of strong acid surface functional groups using five types of activated carbon. Electrodes with the lowest concentration of strong acids (0.05 mmol g –1) had a positive rise potential of 59 ± 4 mVmore » in the LC solution, whereas the carbon with the highest concentration (0.36 mmol g –1) had a negative rise potential (₋31 ± 5 mV). Chemical oxidation of a carbon (YP50) using nitric acid decreased the electrode rise potential from 46 ± 2 mV (unaltered) to ₋6 ± 0.5 mV (oxidized), producing a whole cell potential (53 ± 1.7 mV) that was 4.4 times larger than that obtained with identical electrode materials (from 12 ± 1 mV). Changes in the EDL were linked to the behavior of specific ions in a LC solution using molecular dynamics and metadynamics simulations. The EDL expanded in the LC solution when a carbon surface (pristine graphene) lacked strong acid functional groups, producing a positive-rise potential at the electrode. In contrast, the EDL was compressed for an oxidized surface (graphene oxide), producing a negative-rise electrode potential. In conclusion, these results established the linkage between rise potentials and specific surface functional groups (strong acids) and demonstrated on a molecular scale changes in the EDL using oxidized or pristine carbons.« less

Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

2012-04-01

Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea level rising. Since relatively flat seashores where the slope is less than 1-2 degrees are much more common in Korea, it is expected that the quantity of fresh groundwater storage in most of the coastal region in Korea will be greatly reduced with sea level rise. Acknowledgement: This study is financially supported by BK21.

Greenland meltwater storage in firn limited by near-surface ice formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machguth, Horst; Macferrin, Mike; van As, Dirk; Box, Jason E.; Charalampidis, Charalampos; Colgan, William; Fausto, Robert S.; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2016-04-01

Approximately half of Greenland’s current annual mass loss is attributed to runoff from surface melt. At higher elevations, however, melt does not necessarily equal runoff, because meltwater can refreeze in the porous near-surface snow and firn. Two recent studies suggest that all or most of Greenland’s firn pore space is available for meltwater storage, making the firn an important buffer against contribution to sea level rise for decades to come. Here, we employ in situ observations and historical legacy data to demonstrate that surface runoff begins to dominate over meltwater storage well before firn pore space has been completely filled. Our observations frame the recent exceptional melt summers in 2010 and 2012 (refs ,), revealing significant changes in firn structure at different elevations caused by successive intensive melt events. In the upper regions (more than ~1,900 m above sea level), firn has undergone substantial densification, while at lower elevations, where melt is most abundant, porous firn has lost most of its capability to retain meltwater. Here, the formation of near-surface ice layers renders deep pore space difficult to access, forcing meltwater to enter an efficient surface discharge system and intensifying ice sheet mass loss earlier than previously suggested.

Quantum oscillations in nodal line systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hui; Moessner, Roderich; Lim, Lih-King

2018-04-01

We study signatures of magnetic quantum oscillations in three-dimensional nodal line semimetals at zero temperature. The extended nature of the degenerate bands can result in a Fermi surface geometry with topological genus one, as well as a Fermi surface of electron and hole pockets encapsulating the nodal line. Moreover, the underlying two-band model to describe a nodal line is not unique, in that there are two classes of Hamiltonian with distinct band topology giving rise to the same Fermi-surface geometry. After identifying the extremal cyclotron orbits in various magnetic field directions, we study their concomitant Landau levels and resulting quantum oscillation signatures. By Landau-fan-diagram analyses, we extract the nontrivial π Berry phase signature for extremal orbits linking the nodal line.

The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the implications for attribution research, discourse about sea-level rise, and adaptation planning.

Effects of sea-level rise and pumpage elimination on saltwater intrusion in the Hilton Head Island area, South Carolina, 2004-2104

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.

2010-01-01

Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates. However, results must be considered in light of limitations in the model, including, but not limited to uncertainty in field data, the conceptual model, the physical properties and representation of the hydrogeologic framework, and boundary and initial conditions, as well as uncertainty in future conditions, such as the rate of sea-level rise.

Automated dynamic feature tracking of RSLs on the Martian surface through HiRISE super-resolution restoration and 3D reconstruction techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Y.; Muller, J.-P.

2017-09-01

In this paper, we demonstrate novel Super-resolution restoration and 3D reconstruction tools developed within the EU FP7 projects and their applications to advanced dynamic feature tracking through HiRISE repeat stereo. We show an example with one of the RSL sites in the Palikir Crater took 8 repeat-pass 25cm HiRISE images from which a 5cm RSL-free SRR image is generated using GPT-SRR. Together with repeat 3D modelling of the same area, it allows us to overlay tracked dynamic features onto the reconstructed "original" surface, providing a much more comprehensive interpretation of the surface formation processes in 3D.

Photosynthesis sensitivity to climate change in land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique-Sunen, Andrea; Black, Emily; Verhoef, Anne; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

2016-04-01

Accurate representation of vegetation processes within land surface models is key to reproducing surface carbon, water and energy fluxes. Photosynthesis determines the amount of CO2 fixated by plants as well as the water lost in transpiration through the stomata. Photosynthesis is calculated in land surface models using empirical equations based on plant physiological research. It is assumed that CO2 assimilation is either CO2 -limited, radiation -limited ; and in some models export-limited (the speed at which the products of photosynthesis are used by the plant) . Increased levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration tend to enhance photosynthetic activity, but the effectiveness of this fertilization effect is regulated by environmental conditions and the limiting factor in the photosynthesis reaction. The photosynthesis schemes at the 'leaf level' used by land surface models JULES and CTESSEL have been evaluated against field photosynthesis observations. Also, the response of photosynthesis to radiation, atmospheric CO2 and temperature has been analysed for each model, as this is key to understanding the vegetation response that climate models using these schemes are able to reproduce. Particular emphasis is put on the limiting factor as conditions vary. It is found that while at present day CO2 concentrations export-limitation is only relevant at low temperatures, as CO2 levels rise it becomes an increasingly important restriction on photosynthesis.

Comment [on “Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilkey, Orrin H.; Young, Robert S.; Bush, David M.

2000-01-01

Leatherman et al. [2000] (Eos, Trans., AGU, February 8, 2000, p.55) affirm that global eustatic sea-level rise is driving coastal erosion. Furthermore, they argue that the long-term average rate of shoreline retreat is 150 times the rate of sea-level rise. This rate, they say, is more than a magnitude greater than would be expected from a simple response to sea-level rise through inundation of the shoreline. We agree that sea-level rise is the primary factor causing shoreline retreat in stable coastal areas.This is intuitive. We also believe, however, that the Leatherman et al. [2000] study has greatly underestimated the rate of coastal recession along most low slope shorelines. Slopes along the North Carolina continental shelf/coastal plain approach 10,000:1. To us, this suggests that we should expect rates of shoreline recession 10,000 times the rate of sea-level rise through simple inundation of the shoreline.

Direct cooling of the catheter tip increases safety for CMR-guided electrophysiological procedures

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background One of the safety concerns when performing electrophysiological (EP) procedures under magnetic resonance (MR) guidance is the risk of passive tissue heating due to the EP catheter being exposed to the radiofrequency (RF) field of the RF transmitting body coil. Ablation procedures that use catheters with irrigated tips are well established therapeutic options for the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias and when used in a modified mode might offer an additional system for suppressing passive catheter heating. Methods A two-step approach was chosen. Firstly, tests on passive catheter heating were performed in a 1.5 T Avanto system (Siemens Healthcare Sector, Erlangen, Germany) using a ASTM Phantom in order to determine a possible maximum temperature rise. Secondly, a phantom was designed for simulation of the interface between blood and the vascular wall. The MR-RF induced temperature rise was simulated by catheter tip heating via a standard ablation generator. Power levels from 1 to 6 W were selected. Ablation duration was 120 s with no tip irrigation during the first 60 s and irrigation at rates from 2 ml/min to 35 ml/min for the remaining 60 s (Biotronik Qiona Pump, Berlin, Germany). The temperature was measured with fluoroscopic sensors (Luxtron, Santa Barbara, CA, USA) at a distance of 0 mm, 2 mm, 4 mm, and 6 mm from the catheter tip. Results A maximum temperature rise of 22.4°C at the catheter tip was documented in the MR scanner. This temperature rise is equivalent to the heating effect of an ablator's power output of 6 W at a contact force of the weight of 90 g (0.883 N). The catheter tip irrigation was able to limit the temperature rise to less than 2°C for the majority of examined power levels, and for all examined power levels the residual temperature rise was less than 8°C. Conclusion Up to a maximum of 22.4°C, the temperature rise at the tissue surface can be entirely suppressed by using the catheter's own irrigation system. The irrigated tip system can be used to increase MR safety of EP catheters by suppressing the effects of unwanted passive catheter heating due to RF exposure from the MR scanner. PMID:22296883

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution presented in this research, while the larger, low probability scenarios beyond this level are estimated to contribute a residual annual risk of approximately £0.45 million. These findings clearly demonstrate that uncertainty in future sea level rise is a vital component of coastal flood risk, and therefore, needs to be accounted for by decision makers when considering mitigation policies related to coastal flooding.

Regional Sea Level Changes and Projections over North Pacific Driven by Air-sea interaction and Inter-basin Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhu, J.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

After the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite since 1992, a series of regional sea level changes have been observed. The northwestern Pacific is among the most rapid sea-level-rise regions all over the world. The rising peak occurs around 40°N, with the value reaching 15cm in the past two decades. Moreover, when investigating the projection of global sea level changes using CMIP5 rcp simulations, we found that the northwestern Pacific remains one of the most rapid sea-level-rise regions in the 21st century. To investigate the physical dynamics of present and future sea level changes over the Pacific, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a hierarchy of climate models, including earth system model, ocean model, and atmospheric models, with different complexity. Simulation results indicate that this regional sea level change during the past two decades is mainly caused by the shift of the Kuroshio, which is largely driven by the surface wind anomaly associated with an intensified and northward shifted north Pacific sub-tropical high. Further analysis and simulations show that these changes of sub-tropical high can be primarily attributed to the regional SST forcing from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the remote SST forcings from the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. In the rcp scenario, on the other hand, two processes are crucial. Firstly, the meridional temperature SST gradient drives a northward wind anomaly across the equator, raising the sea level all over the North Pacific. Secondly, the atmospheric circulation changes around the sub-tropical Pacific further increase the sea level of the North Western Pacific. The coastal region around the Northwest Pacific is the most densely populated region around the world, therefore more attention must be paid to the sea level changes over this region, as suggested by our study.

Future lunar missions and investigation of dusty plasma processes on the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popel, Sergey I.; Zelenyi, Lev M.; Zelenyi

2013-08-01

From the Apollo era of exploration, it was discovered that sunlight was scattered at the terminators giving rise to ``horizon glow'' and ``streamers'' above the lunar surface. Subsequent investigations have shown that the sunlight was most likely scattered by electrostatically charged dust grains originating from the surface. A renaissance is being observed currently in investigations of the Moon. The Luna-Glob and Luna-Resource missions (the latter jointly with India) are being prepared in Russia. Some of these missions will include investigations of lunar dust. Here we discuss the future experimental investigations of lunar dust within the missions of Luna-Glob and Luna-Resource. We consider the dusty plasma system over the lunar surface and determine the maximum height of dust rise. We describe mechanisms of formation of the dusty plasma system over the Moon and its main properties, determine distributions of electrons and dust over the lunar surface, and show a possibility of rising dust particles over the surface of the illuminated part of the Moon in the entire range of lunar latitudes. Finally, we discuss the effect of condensation of micrometeoriod substance during the expansion of the impact plume and show that this effect is important from the viewpoint of explanation of dust particle rise to high altitudes in addition to the dusty plasma effects.

Cyclic fluctuations of water level as a basis for determining aquifer transmissibility

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferris, John G.

1952-01-01

In coastal areas, wells near bodies of tidal water frequently exhibit sinusoidal fluctuations of water level, in response to periodic changes of tidewater stage.  Inland, the regulation of a surface reservoir often produces correlative changes of ground-water stage in wells adjacent either to the reservoir or to its attendant stream.  As the stage of the surface water rises, the head upon the subaqueous outcrop of the aquifer increases and thereby either increases the rate of inflow to the aquifer or reduces the rate of outflow therefrom.  The increase in recharge or reduction in discharge results in a general recovery of water level in the aquifer. On the subsequent falling stage this pattern is reversed.  When the stage of the surface body fluctuates as a simple harmonic motion a train of sinusoidal waves is propagated shoreward through the sub-outcrop of the aquifer.  With increasing distance from the sub-outcrop, the amplitude of the transmitted wave decreases and the time lag of a given maximum or minimum increases.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2017-01-01

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years

PubMed Central

Hein, Andrew S.; Woodward, John; Marrero, Shasta M.; Dunning, Stuart A.; Steig, Eric J.; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.; Stuart, Finlay M.; Winter, Kate; Westoby, Matthew J.; Sugden, David E.

2016-01-01

Past fluctuations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are of fundamental interest because of the possibility of WAIS collapse in the future and a consequent rise in global sea level. However, the configuration and stability of the ice sheet during past interglacial periods remains uncertain. Here we present geomorphological evidence and multiple cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains to suggest that the divide of the WAIS has fluctuated only modestly in location and thickness for at least the last 1.4 million years. Fluctuations during glacial–interglacial cycles appear superimposed on a long-term trajectory of ice-surface lowering relative to the mountains. This implies that as a minimum, a regional ice sheet centred on the Ellsworth-Whitmore uplands may have survived Pleistocene warm periods. If so, it constrains the WAIS contribution to global sea level rise during interglacials to about 3.3 m above present. PMID:26838462

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff.

PubMed

Van Tricht, K; Lhermitte, S; Lenaerts, J T M; Gorodetskaya, I V; L'Ecuyer, T S; Noël, B; van den Broeke, M R; Turner, D D; van Lipzig, N P M

2016-01-12

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m(-2). Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

PubMed Central

Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise. PMID:26756470

Cyclic and secular variation in microfossil biomineralization: clues to the biogeochemical evolution of Phanerozoic oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Ronald E.

1995-06-01

The stratigraphic occurrence and mineralogy of major protistan microfossil taxa tend to reflect evolutionary innovation in response to ocean chemistry and fertility. In foraminefera, the characteristic test composition—and, in some cases, ultrastructure—of each suborder is indicative of the degree of surface ocean CaCO 3 saturation, which varied in a cyclic manner through the Phanerozoic, at the time of origin of the suborder. High dissolved phosphate and low CaCO 3 saturation in late Precambrian-Early Cambrian surface waters may have prevented calcification in primitive non-calcareous (organic, agglutinated) foraminiferal stocks. Scattered reports of coccolithophorid-like microfossils from the Paleozoic are indicative of a secular trend in rising nutrient levels and marine productivity that controlled the initiation of calcareous oozes. Based on acritarch, carbon isotope, and phosphorite records, extremely low nutrient levels ("superligotrophic" conditions) in Cambrian-to-Devonian seas typically limited population densities of calcareous nannoplankton and prevented the formation of calcareous oozes. The overall "superoligotrophic" surface conditions of the Paleozoic were punctuated, though, by episodes of "catastrophic" eutrophication in the Late Ordovician, Late Devonia, and Late Carboniferous (Worsley et al., 1986). Following each episode, CaCO 3 rain rates were presumably enhanced because Marine C:P (MCP) burial ratios increased permanently above previous levels (Worsley et al., 1986). Nevertheless, it was not until the Carboniferous that the CCD had deepened sufficiently (via erosion of cratonic limestones) to allow pelagic calcareous oozes to begin to accumulate. Prior to this time, surface waters appear to have been sufficiently corrosive (high atmospheric pCO 2 and low CaCO 3 saturation), and the CCD sufficiently shallow, to dissolve virtually all incipient calcareous nannofossils. Following Late Permian extinctions, plankton re-expanded in response to both eustatic sea level rise (increased habitat availability) and increased nutrient levels ("mesotrophic" conditions). As organic matter (C org) and CaCO 3 rain rates increased, bioturbation rates also increased, thereby recycling nutrients back to the surface and accentuating productivity and calcareous ooze formation. MCP episodes further accelerated nutrient cycling and productivity in the Neogene, as indicated by the expansion of diatoms, which prefer nutrient-rich ("eutrophic") conditions. Ironically, while permanently increasing C:P burial ratios and productivity through the Phanerozoic, catastrophic fluctuations in nutrient levels may have also exacerbated mass extinctions via shortening of pelagic food chains. Nevertheless, re-expansion of the marine biosphere following each extinction episode resulted in a secular trend of increasing biomass and biotic diversity that may have contributed to the decline in background extinction rates through the Phanerozoic.

Cultured Human Adipose Tissue Pericytes and Mesenchymal Stromal Cells Display a Very Similar Gene Expression Profile

PubMed Central

Malta, Tathiane Maistro; de Deus Wagatsuma, Virgínia Mara; Palma, Patrícia Viana Bonini; Araújo, Amélia Goes; Ribeiro Malmegrim, Kelen Cristina; Morato de Oliveira, Fábio; Panepucci, Rodrigo Alexandre; Silva, Wilson Araújo; Kashima Haddad, Simone; Covas, Dimas Tadeu

2015-01-01

Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) are cultured cells that can give rise to mature mesenchymal cells under appropriate conditions and secrete a number of biologically relevant molecules that may play an important role in regenerative medicine. Evidence indicates that pericytes (PCs) correspond to mesenchymal stem cells in vivo and can give rise to MSCs when cultured, but a comparison between the gene expression profiles of cultured PCs (cPCs) and MSCs is lacking. We have devised a novel methodology to isolate PCs from human adipose tissue and compared cPCs to MSCs obtained through traditional methods. Freshly isolated PCs expressed CD34, CD140b, and CD271 on their surface, but not CD146. Both MSCs and cPCs were able to differentiate along mesenchymal pathways in vitro, displayed an essentially identical surface immunophenotype, and exhibited the ability to suppress CD3+ lymphocyte proliferation in vitro. Microarray expression data of cPCs and MSCs formed a single cluster among other cell types. Further analyses showed that the gene expression profiles of cPCs and MSCs are extremely similar, although MSCs differentially expressed endothelial cell (EC)-specific transcripts. These results confirm, using the power of transcriptomic analysis, that PCs give rise to MSCs and suggest that low levels of ECs may persist in MSC cultures established using traditional protocols. PMID:26192741

Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise.

PubMed

Kirwan, Matthew L; Megonigal, J Patrick

2013-12-05

Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.

Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Elias, Edwin P.L.; Berkowitz, Paul

2015-01-01

Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.

Rising tides, rising gates: The complex ecogeomorphic response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise and human interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandi, Steven G.; Rodríguez, José F.; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo; Saco, Patricia M.

2018-04-01

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to submergence due to sea-level rise, as shown by predictions of up to 80% of global wetland loss by the end of the century. Coastal wetlands with mixed mangrove-saltmarsh vegetation are particularly vulnerable because sea-level rise can promote mangrove encroachment on saltmarsh, reducing overall wetland biodiversity. Here we use an ecogeomorphic framework that incorporates hydrodynamic effects, mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics, and soil accretion processes to assess the effects of control structures on wetland evolution. Migration and accretion patterns of mangrove and saltmarsh are heavily dependent on topography and control structures. We find that current management practices that incorporate a fixed gate for the control of mangrove encroachment are useful initially, but soon become ineffective due to sea-level rise. Raising the gate, to counteract the effects of sea level rise and promote suitable hydrodynamic conditions, excludes mangrove and maintains saltmarsh over the entire simulation period of 100 years

Infilling and flooding of the Mekong River incised valley during deglacial sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjallingii, Rik; Stattegger, Karl; Wetzel, Andreas; Van Phach, Phung

2010-06-01

The abrupt transition from fluvial to marine deposition of incised-valley-fill sediments retrieved from the southeast Vietnamese shelf, accurately records the postglacial transgression after 14 ka before present (BP). Valley-filling sediments consist of fluvial mud, whereas sedimentation after the transgression is characterized by shallow-marine carbonate sands. This change in sediment composition is accurately marked in high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records. Rapid aggradation of fluvial sediments at the river mouth nearly completely filled the Mekong incised valley prior to flooding. However, accumulation rates strongly reduced in the valley after the river-mouth system flooded and stepped back. This also affected the sediment supply to deeper parts of the southeast Vietnamese shelf. Comparison of the Mekong valley-filling with the East Asian sea-level history of sub- and inter-tidal sediment records shows that the transgressive surface preserved in the incised-valley-fill records is a robust sea-level indicator. The valley was nearly completely filled with fluvial sediments between 13.0 and 9.5 ka BP when sea-level rose rather constantly with approximately 10 mm/yr, as indicated by the East Asian sea-level record. At shallower parts of the shelf, significant sediment reworking and the establishment of estuarine conditions at the final stage of infilling complicates accurate dating of the transgressive surface. Nevertheless, incised-valley-fill records and land-based drill sites indicate a vast and rapid flooding of the shelf from the location of the modern Vietnamese coastline to the Cambodian lowlands between 9.5 ka and 8.5 ka BP. Fast flooding of this part of the shelf is related with the low shelf gradient and a strong acceleration of the East Asian sea-level rise from 34 to 9 meter below modern sea level (mbsl) corresponding to the sea-level jump of melt water pulse (MWP) 1C.

On Capillary Rise and Nucleation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prasad, R.

2008-01-01

A comparison of capillary rise and nucleation is presented. It is shown that both phenomena result from a balance between two competing energy factors: a volume energy and a surface energy. Such a comparison may help to introduce nucleation with a topic familiar to the students, capillary rise. (Contains 1 table and 3 figures.)

Users' instructions for the NASA/MSFC cloud-rise preprocessor program, version 6, and the NASA/MSFC multilayer diffusion program, version 6: Research version for Univac 1108 system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bjorklund, J. R.

1978-01-01

The cloud-rise preprocessor and multilayer diffusion computer programs were used by NASA in predicting concentrations and dosages downwind from normal and abnormal launches of rocket vehicles. These programs incorporated: (1) the latest data for the heat content and chemistry of rocket exhaust clouds; (2) provision for the automated calculation of surface water pH due to deposition of HCl from precipitation scavenging; (3) provision for automated calculation of concentration and dosage parameters at any level within the vertical grounds for which meteorological inputs have been specified; and (4) provision for execution of multiple cases of meteorological data. Procedures used to automatically calculate wind direction shear in a layer were updated.

Confirmation of saturation equilibrium conditions in crater populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, William K.; Gaskell, Robert W.

1993-01-01

We have continued work on realistic numerical models of cratered surfaces, as first reported at last year's LPSC. We confirm the saturation equilibrium level with a new, independent test. One of us has developed a realistic computer simulation of a cratered surface. The model starts with a smooth surface or fractal topography, and adds primary craters according to the cumulative power law with exponent -1.83, as observed on lunar maria and Martian plains. Each crater has an ejecta blanket with the volume of the crater, feathering out to a distance of 4 crater radii. We use the model to test the levels of saturation equilibrium reached in naturally occurring systems, by increasing crater density and observing its dependence on various parameters. In particular, we have tested to see if these artificial systems reach the level found by Hartmann on heavily cratered planetary surfaces, hypothesized to be the natural saturation equilibrium level. This year's work gives the first results of a crater population that includes secondaries. Our model 'Gaskell-4' (September, 1992) includes primaries as described above, but also includes a secondary population, defined by exponent -4. We allowed the largest secondary from each primary to be 0.10 times the size of the primary. These parameters will be changed to test their effects in future models. The model gives realistic images of a cratered surface although it appears richer in secondaries than real surfaces are. The effect of running the model toward saturation gives interesting results for the diameter distribution. Our most heavily cratered surface had the input number of primary craters reach about 0.65 times the hypothesized saturation equilibrium, but the input number rises to more than 100 times that level for secondaries below 1.4 km in size.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Olympic National Park to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Hammar-Klose, Erika S.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Olympic National Park (OLYM), Washington. The CVI scores the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The Olympic National Park coast consists of rocky headlands, pocket beaches, glacial-fluvial features, and sand and gravel beaches. The Olympic coastline that is most vulnerable to sea-level rise are beaches in gently sloping areas.

Potential impact of predicted sea level rise on carbon sink function of mangrove ecosystems with special reference to Negombo estuary, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, K. A. R. S.; De Silva, K. H. W. L.; Amarasinghe, M. D.

2018-02-01

Unique location in the land-sea interface makes mangrove ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of predicted sea level rise due to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Among others, carbon sink function of these tropical ecosystems that contribute to reduce rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, could potentially be affected most. Present study was undertaken to explore the extent of impact of the predicted sea level rise for the region on total organic carbon (TOC) pools of the mangrove ecosystems in Negombo estuary located on the west coast of Sri Lanka. Extents of the coastal inundations under minimum (0.09 m) and maximum (0.88 m) sea level rise scenarios of IPCC for 2100 and an intermediate level of 0.48 m were determined with GIS tools. Estimated total capacity of organic carbon retention by these mangrove areas was 499.45 Mg C ha- 1 of which 84% (418.98 Mg C ha- 1) sequestered in the mangrove soil and 16% (80.56 Mg C ha- 1) in the vegetation. Total extent of land area potentially affected by inundation under lowest sea level rise scenario was 218.9 ha, while it was 476.2 ha under intermediate rise and 696.0 ha with the predicted maximum sea level rise. Estimated rate of loss of carbon sink function due to inundation by the sea level rise of 0.09 m is 6.30 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 while the intermediate sea level rise indicated a loss of 9.92 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 and under maximum sea level rise scenario, this loss further increases up to 11.32 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1. Adaptation of mangrove plants to withstand inundation and landward migration along with escalated photosynthetic rates, augmented by changing rainfall patterns and availability of nutrients may contribute to reduce the rate of loss of carbon sink function of these mangrove ecosystems. Predictions over change in carbon sequestration function of mangroves in Negombo estuary reveals that it is not only affected by oceanographic and hydrological alterations associated with sea level rise but also by anthropogenic processes, therefore the impacts are site specific in terms of distribution and magnitude.

Ground cloud effluent measurements during the May 30, 1974, Titan 3 launch at the Air Force eastern test range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bendura, R. J.; Crumbly, K. H.

1977-01-01

Surface-level exhaust effluent measurements of HCl, CO, and particulates, ground-cloud behavior, and some comparisons with model predictions for the launch of a Titan 3 rocket are presented along with a limited amount of airborne sampling measurements of other cloud species (O3, NO, NOX). Values above background levels for these effluents were obtained at 20 of the 30 instrument sites; these values were lower than model predictions and did not exceed public health standards. Cloud rise rate, stabilization altitude, and volume are compared with results from previous launches.

Zum Auf und Ab des Meeresspiegels in Skandinavien: Langer Streit um Eustasie oder Isostasie

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibold, Eugen; Seibold, Ilse

2012-03-01

The phenomenon of the rise of the Scandinavian shield during the Holocene and the concomitant fall in level of the Baltic Sea has been investigated for centuries. Already in medieval times, there were reports about the coastlines of the Gulf of Bothnia that are full of relevant observations. During the eighteenth century, scientists such as Celsius and Linnaeus collected observations such as these. The result was that the search for the possible explanations of this rise-and-fall phenomenon intensified. The generally favoured explanation was that there was an active sinking of sea level in the Baltic rather than an active rising of the land surface in Fennoscandia. This was because water was seen as mobile, in contrast to a "terra firma". The relevant discussion was often emotional, and here, we try to illustrate it using material from the Geologenarchiv Freiburg (von Hoff, von Buch and Goethe). No more than a few decades later, it became obvious by the theory of Ice Age that both the sea level and the land could be mobile (eustatic sea level changes—glacial isostasy). Additionally, of course, plate tectonics had some influence: Norway is situated at the western end of the Eurasian plate and is part of a passive continental margin. There are still open research problems, many of which can be addressed using modern methods of satellite-based geophysics and geodesy. Some other aspects as the permanent uplift trend of Scandinavia since the Cambrium or the rhythmic to and fro of magma in the upper mantle during the Pleistocene are mentioned.

Infrared thermography based studies on mobile phone induced heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahiri, B. B.; Bagavathiappan, S.; Soumya, C.; Jayakumar, T.; Philip, John

2015-07-01

Here, we report the skin temperature rise due to the absorption of radio frequency (RF) energy from three handheld mobile phones using infrared thermography technique. Experiments are performed under two different conditions, viz. when the mobile phones are placed in soft touch with the skin surface and away from the skin surface. Additionally, the temperature rise of mobile phones during charging, operation and simultaneous charging and talking are monitored under different exposure conditions. It is observed that the temperature of the cheek and ear regions monotonically increased with time during the usage of mobile phones and the magnitude of the temperature rise is higher for the mobile phone with higher specific absorption rate. The increase in skin temperature is higher when the mobile phones are in contact with the skin surface due to the combined effect of absorption of RF electromagnetic power and conductive heat transfer. The increase in the skin temperature in non-contact mode is found to be within the safety limit of 1 °C. The measured temperature rise is in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The empirical equation obtained from the temperature rise on the cheek region of the subjects correlates well with the specific absorption rate of the mobile phones. Our study suggests that the use of mobile phones in non-contact mode can significantly lower the skin temperature rise during its use and hence, is safer compared to the contact mode.

The Urban Heat Island Impact in Consideration of Spatial Pattern of Urban Landscape and Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Sung, S.; Park, J.

2015-12-01

Preceding study has established a clear relationship between land surface temperature and area of land covers. However, only few studies have specifically examined the effects of spatial patterns of land covers and urban structure. To examine how much the local climate is affected by the spatial pattern in highly urbanized city, we investigated the correlation between land surface temperature and spatial patterns of land covers. In the analysis of correlation, we categorized urban structure to four different land uses: Apartment residential area, low rise residential area, industrial area and central business district. Through this study, we aims to examine the types of residential structure and land cover pattern for reducing urban heat island and sustainable development. Based on land surface temperature, we investigated the phenomenon of urban heat island through using the data of remote sensing. This study focused on Daegu in Korea. This city, one of the hottest city in Korea has basin form. We used high-resolution land cover data and land surface temperature by using Landsat8 satellite image to examine 100 randomly selected sample sites of 884.15km2 (1)In each land use, we quantified several landscape-levels and class-level landscape metrics for the sample study sites. (2)In addition, we measured the land surface temperature in 3 year hot summer seasons (July to September). Then, we investigated the pattern of land surface temperature for each land use through Ecognition package. (3)We deducted the Pearson correlation coefficients between land surface temperature and each landscape metrics. (4)We analyzed the variance among the four land uses. (5)Using linear regression, we determined land surface temperature model for each land use. (6)Through this analysis, we aims to examine the best pattern of land cover and artificial structure for reducing urban heat island effect in highly urbanized city. The results of linear regression showed that proportional land cover of grass, tree, water and impervious surfaces well explained the temperature in apartment residential areas. In contrast, the changes in the pattern of water, grass, tree and impervious surfaces were the best to determine the temperature in low rise residential area, central business district and industrial area.

Surface elevation change on ice caps in the Qaanaaq region, northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Jun; Sugiyama, Shin; Tsutaki, Shun; Sawagaki, Takanobu

2016-09-01

A large number of glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are distributed along the Greenland coast, physically separated from the ice sheet. The total area of these GICs accounts for 5% of Greenland's ice cover. Melt water input from the GICs to the ocean substantially contributed to sea-level rise over the last century. Here, we report surface elevation changes of six ice caps near Qaanaaq (77°28‧N, 69°13‧W) in northwestern Greenland based on photogrammetric analysis of stereo pair satellite images. We processed the images with a digital map plotting instrument to generate digital elevation models (DEMs) in 2006 and 2010 with a grid resolution of 500 m. Generated DEMs were compared to measure surface elevation changes between 2006 and 2010. Over the study area of the six ice caps, covering 1215 km2, the mean rate of elevation change was -1.1 ± 0.1 m a-1. This rate is significantly greater than that previously reported for the 2003-2008 period (-0.6 ± 0.1 m a-1) for GICs all of northwestern Greenland. This increased mass loss is consistent with the rise in summer temperatures in this region at a rate of 0.12 °C a-1 for the 1997-2013 period.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, Randall W.

2009-07-01

Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

Elevated CO2 enhances biological contributions to elevation change in coastal wetlands by offsetting stressors associated with sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, J.A.; McKee, K.L.; Grace, J.B.

2009-01-01

1. Sea-level rise, one indirect consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2, poses a major challenge to long-term stability of coastal wetlands. An important question is whether direct effects of elevated CO 2 on the capacity of marsh plants to accrete organic material and to maintain surface elevations outweigh indirect negative effects of stressors associated with sea-level rise (salinity and flooding). 2. In this study, we used a mesocosm approach to examine potential direct and indirect effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration, salinity and flooding on elevation change in a brackish marsh community dominated by a C3 species, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a C4 grass, Spartina patens. This experimental design permitted identification of mechanisms and their role in controlling elevation change, and the development of models that can be tested in the field. 3. To test hypotheses related to CO2 and sea-level rise, we used conventional anova procedures in conjunction with structural equation modelling (SEM). SEM explained 78% of the variability in elevation change and showed the direct, positive effect of S. americanus production on elevation. The SEM indicated that C3 plant response was influenced by interactive effects between CO2 and salinity on plant growth, not a direct CO2 fertilization effect. Elevated CO2 ameliorated negative effects of salinity on S. americanus and enhanced biomass contribution to elevation. 4. The positive relationship between S. americanus production and elevation change can be explained by shoot-base expansion under elevated CO 2 conditions, which led to vertical soil displacement. While the response of this species may differ under other environmental conditions, shoot-base expansion and the general contribution of C3 plant production to elevation change may be an important mechanism contributing to soil expansion and elevation gain in other coastal wetlands. 5. Synthesis. Our results revealed previously unrecognized interactions and mechanisms contributing to marsh elevation change, including amelioration of salt stress by elevated CO2 and the importance of plant production and shoot-base expansion for elevation gain. Identification of biological processes contributing to elevation change is an important first step in developing comprehensive models that permit more accurate predictions of whether coastal marshes will persist with continued sea-level rise or become submerged. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Safety Rises to New Levels.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lafo, Joseph; Robillard, Marc

2001-01-01

Explains how high-rise residence halls can provide high-level safety and security at colleges and universities. Boston University is used to illustrate high-rise security and fire protection issues. (GR)

Emulsifying properties and oil/water (O/W) interface adsorption behavior of heated soy proteins: effects of heating concentration, homogenizer rotating speed, and salt addition level.

PubMed

Cui, Zhumei; Chen, Yeming; Kong, Xiangzhen; Zhang, Caimeng; Hua, Yufei

2014-02-19

The adsorption of heat-denatured soy proteins at the oil/water (O/W) interface during emulsification was studied. Protein samples were prepared by heating protein solutions at concentrations of 1-5% (w/v) and were then diluted to 0.3% (w/v). The results showed that soy proteins that had been heated at higher concentrations generated smaller droplet size of emulsion. Increase in homogenizer rotating speed resulted in higher protein adsorption percentages and lower surface loads at the O/W interface. Surface loads for both unheated and heated soy proteins were linearly correlated with the unadsorbed proteins' equilibrium concentration at various rotating speeds. With the rise in NaCl addition level, protein adsorption percentage and surface loads of emulsions increased, whereas lower droplet sizes were obtained at the ionic strength of 0.1 M. The aggregates and non-aggregates displayed different adsorption behaviors when rotating speed or NaCl concentration was varied.

Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeter, K. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.; Lewis, G.; Meehan, T.; McCarthy, F.; Overly, T.; Birkel, S. D.

2018-04-01

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of 1.2°C since 1870-1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

Dynamics of Rear Stagnant Cap formation at the surface of spherical bubbles rising in surfactant solutions at large Reynolds numbers under conditions of small Marangoni number and slow sorption kinetics.

PubMed

Dukhin, S S; Kovalchuk, V I; Gochev, G G; Lotfi, M; Krzan, M; Malysa, K; Miller, R

2015-08-01

On the surface of bubbles rising in a surfactant solution the adsorption process proceeds and leads to the formation of a so called Rear Stagnant Cap (RSC). The larger this RSC is the stronger is the retardation of the rising velocity. The theory of a steady RSC and steady retarded rising velocity, which sets in after a transient stage, has been generally accepted. However, a non-steady process of bubble rising starting from the initial zero velocity represents an important portion of the trajectory of rising, characterized by a local velocity profile (LVP). As there is no theory of RSC growth for large Reynolds numbers Re » 1 so far, the interpretation of LVPs measured in this regime was impossible. It turned out, that an analytical theory for a quasi-steady growth of RSC is possible for small Marangoni numbers Ma « 1, i.e. when the RSC is almost completely compressed, which means a uniform surface concentration Γ(θ)=Γ(∞) within the RSC. Hence, the RSC angle ψ(t) is obtained as a function of the adsorption isotherm parameters and time t. From the steady velocity v(st)(ψ), the dependence of non-steady velocity on time is obtained by employing v(st)[ψ(t)] via a quasi-steady approximation. The measurement of LVP creates a promising new opportunity for investigation of the RSC dynamics and adsorption kinetics. While adsorption and desorption happen at the same localization in the classical methods, in rising bubble experiments desorption occurs mainly within RSC while adsorption on the mobile part of the bubble surface. The desorption flux from RSC is proportional to αΓ(∞), while it is usually αΓ. The adsorption flux at the mobile surface above RSC can be assumed proportional to βC0, while it is usually βC0(1-Γ/Γ(∞)). These simplifications may become favorable in investigations of the adsorption kinetics for larger molecules, in particular for globular proteins, which essentially stay at an interface once adsorbed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards quantifying uncertainty in Greenland's contribution to 21st century sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perego, M.; Tezaur, I.; Price, S. F.; Jakeman, J.; Eldred, M.; Salinger, A.; Hoffman, M. J.

2015-12-01

We present recent work towards developing a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in Greenland's 21st century contribution to sea-level rise. While we focus on uncertainties associated with the optimization and calibration of the basal sliding parameter field, the methodology is largely generic and could be applied to other (or multiple) sets of uncertain model parameter fields. The first step in the workflow is the solution of a large-scale, deterministic inverse problem, which minimizes the mismatch between observed and computed surface velocities by optimizing the two-dimensional coefficient field in a linear-friction sliding law. We then expand the deviation in this coefficient field from its estimated "mean" state using a reduced basis of Karhunen-Loeve Expansion (KLE) vectors. A Bayesian calibration is used to determine the optimal coefficient values for this expansion. The prior for the Bayesian calibration can be computed using the Hessian of the deterministic inversion or using an exponential covariance kernel. The posterior distribution is then obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo run on an emulator of the forward model. Finally, the uncertainty in the modeled sea-level rise is obtained by performing an ensemble of forward propagation runs. We present and discuss preliminary results obtained using a moderate-resolution model of the Greenland Ice sheet. As demonstrated in previous work, the primary difficulty in applying the complete workflow to realistic, high-resolution problems is that the effective dimension of the parameter space is very large.

Climatic-eustatic control of Holocene nearshore parasequence development, southeastern Texas coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Kindinger, Jack G.; Flocks, James G.; Stewart, Laura B.

1999-01-01

Sediment cores, seismic profiles, radiocarbon dates, and faunal assemblages were used to interpret the depositional setting and geological evolution of the southeastern Texas coast during the last glacio-eustatic cycle. Discrete lithofacies and biofacies zones in the ebb-dominated Sabine Lake estuary and adjacent chenier plain record alternating periods of rapid marine flooding and gradual shoaling related to linked climatic/eustatic fluctuations. Monospecific zones of the mollusks Rangia cuneata and Crassostrea virginica, respectively, indicate high fresh water outflow followed by invasion of marine water, whereas intervening organic-rich zones record bayhead delta deposition. High-frequency parasequence stacking patterns within the valley fill and across the adjacent interfluve reflect an initial rapid rise in sea level about 9 ka that flooded abandoned alluvial terraces and caused onlap of Holocene marsh in the incised valley. The rapid rise was followed by slowly rising and oscillating sea level that filled the deepest portions of the incised valleys with fluvially dominated estuarine deposits, and then a maximum highstand (+1 m msl) about 5 ka that flooded the former subaerial coastal plain between the incised valleys and constructed the highest beach ridges. Between 3.5 and 1.5 ka, sea level oscillated and gradually fell, causing a forced regression and rapid progradation of both the chenier plain and accretionary barrier islands. The only significant sands in the valley fill are (1) falling-stage and lowstand-fluvial sediments between the basal sequence boundary and transgressive surface unconformity, and (2) highstand beach-ridge sediments of the chenier plain.

Predicting water table response to rainfall events, central Florida.

PubMed

van Gaalen, J F; Kruse, S; Lafrenz, W B; Burroughs, S M

2013-01-01

A rise in water table in response to a rainfall event is a complex function of permeability, specific yield, antecedent soil-water conditions, water table level, evapotranspiration, vegetation, lateral groundwater flow, and rainfall volume and intensity. Predictions of water table response, however, commonly assume a linear relationship between response and rainfall based on cumulative analysis of water level and rainfall logs. By identifying individual rainfall events and responses, we examine how the response/rainfall ratio varies as a function of antecedent water table level (stage) and rainfall event size. For wells in wetlands and uplands in central Florida, incorporating stage and event size improves forecasting of water table rise by more than 30%, based on 10 years of data. At the 11 sites studied, the water table is generally least responsive to rainfall at smallest and largest rainfall event sizes and at lower stages. At most sites the minimum amount of rainfall required to induce a rise in water table is fairly uniform when the water table is within 50 to 100 cm of land surface. Below this depth, the minimum typically gradually increases with depth. These observations can be qualitatively explained by unsaturated zone flow processes. Overall, response/rainfall ratios are higher in wetlands and lower in uplands, presumably reflecting lower specific yields and greater lateral influx in wetland sites. Pronounced depth variations in rainfall/response ratios appear to correlate with soil layer boundaries, where corroborating data are available. © 2012, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2012, National Ground Water Association.

Elevated biological productivity as a trigger for the Holocene sapropel in the Black Sea during its reconnection with the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanchilina, A.; Ryan, W. B.; Kenna, T. C.

2013-12-01

Sapropelic sedimentation characterizes the mid-Holocene section of the Black Sea strata, ranging from ~7500 to 3000 kyr BP. The level of organic carbon in the sapropel reaches 20% and the timing of the onset is independent of depth. However, it is unclear what sequence of events led to the development of the sapropel and how exactly its deposition was related to the connection of the Black Sea with the Mediterranean. One component that contributes to the uncertainty is a ~1000 kyr BP jump in age across the sapropel interface derived from radiocarbon dating of carbonate material. This study looks at records of XRF done on dry and wet sediments (i.e., Cu, Mo, Br) in addition to radiocarbon and stable isotope measurements on shells of ostracods. Cu, Mo, and Br all increase substantially from their low abundances in the glacial, post-glacial, and early Holocene gray clay almost concurrently. An increase in Cu indicates the rise of nutrients in the surface water and is coincident with a rise in Corg. Mo rises after Cu; it is attributed to the onset of anoxia, as it precipitates out of the water column in an environment lacking oxygen. Br increases last, attributed to the rise of the bottom dense salt water layer to the surface and its uptake by phytoplankton. Stable isotope results show that the δ18O rises from -1 to 0.3 ‰ and δ13C rises from -3 to -0.5 ‰ prior to the disappearance of ostracods in the sediment and indicates that anoxia started after the Black Sea-Lake connected with the Mediterranean. These results suggest that it was increased biological productivity that initially led to the deposition of the sapropel and only later to anoxia that then reinforced the highly organic content of the preserved sediment for thousands of years. The one thousand year jump in radiocarbon is interpreted as a decrease in the reservoir age of the water due to the replacement of stratified Black Sea that has accumulated old carbon and a large reservoir age with Mediterranean water of a nearly zero reservoir age.

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

2006-04-15

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Formation Mechanism of Surface Crack in Low Pressure Casting of A360 Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shan-Guang; Cao, Fu-Yang; Ying, Tao; Zhao, Xin-Yi; Liu, Jing-Shun; Shen, Hong-Xian; Guo, Shu; Sun, Jian-Fei

2017-12-01

A surface crack defect is normally found in low pressure castings of Al alloy with a sudden contraction structure. To further understand the formation mechanism of the defect, the mold filling process is simulated by a two-phase flow model. The experimental results indicate that the main reason for the defect deformation is the mismatching between the height of liquid surface in the mold and pressure in the crucible. In the case of filling, a sudden contraction structure with an area ratio smaller than 0.5 is obtained, and the velocity of the liquid front increases dramatically with the influence of inertia. Meanwhile, the pressurizing speed in the crucible remains unchanged, resulting in the pressure not being able to support the height of the liquid level. Then the liquid metal flows back to the crucible and forms a relatively thin layer solidification shell on the mold wall. With the increasing pressure in the crucible, the liquid level rises again, engulfing the shell and leading to a surface crack. As the filling velocity is characterized by the damping oscillations, surface cracks will form at different heights. The results shed light on designing a suitable pressurizing speed for the low pressure casting process.

Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, P.

2015-12-01

There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise : a focus on the mid-atlantic region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-15

The focus of this product is to identify and review the potential impacts of future sea-level rise based on present scientific understanding. To do so, this product evaluates : several aspects of sea-level rise impacts to the natural environment and ...

First-principles calculation of electronic energy level alignment at electrochemical interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azar, Yavar T.; Payami, Mahmoud

2017-08-01

Energy level alignment at solid-solvent interfaces is an important step in determining the properties of electrochemical systems. The positions of conduction and valence band edges of a semiconductor are affected by its environment. In this study, using first-principles DFT calculation, we have determined the level shifts of the semiconductors TiO2 and ZnO at the interfaces with MeCN and DMF solvent molecules. The level shifts of semiconductor are obtained using the potential difference between the clean and exposed surfaces of asymmetric slabs. In this work, neglecting the effects of present ions in the electrolyte solution, we have shown that the solvent molecules give rise to an up-shift for the levels, and the amount of this shift varies with coverage. It is also shown that the shapes of density of states do not change sensibly near the gap. Molecular dynamics simulations of the interface have shown that at room temperatures the semiconductor surface is not fully covered by the solvent molecules, and one must use intermediate values in an static calculations.

Effects of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langevin, Christian D.; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise.

Early Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On June 15, 2016, the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 satellite acquired a natural-color image of an area just inland from the coast of southwestern Greenland (120 kilometers southeast of Ilulisat and 500 kilometers north-northeast of Nuuk). According to Marco Tedesco, a professor at Columbia University’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, melting in this area began relatively early in April but was not sustained. It started up again in May and grew into the watery June scene pictured above. Surface melt can directly contribute to sea level rise via runoff. It can also force its way through crevasses to the base of a glacier, temporarily speeding up ice flow and indirectly contributing to sea level rise. Also, ponding of meltwater can “darken” the ice sheet’s surface and lead to further melting. Read more: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88288 Credit: NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using EO-1 ALI data provided courtesy of the NASA EO-1 team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Modeling Tidal Wetland Resiliency in the Face of Predicted Accelerated Sea-Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schile, L. M.; Callaway, J.; Morris, J. T.; Kelly, M.

2014-12-01

Tidal wetland ecosystems are dynamic coastal habitats that, in California, often occur at the complex nexus of aquatic environments, diked and leveed baylands, and modified upland habitat. Because of their prime location and rich peat soil, many wetlands have been reduced, degraded, and/or destroyed, and yet their important role in carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment filtering, and as habitat requires us to further examine their sustainability in light of predicted climate change. Predictions of climate change effects for the San Francisco Bay Estuary present a future with reduced summer freshwater input and increased sea levels. We examined the applicability and accuracy of the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a zero-dimensional model that models organic and inorganic accretion rates under a given rate of sea-level rise. MEM was calibrated using data collected from salt and brackish marshes in the San Francisco Bay Estuary to examine wetland resiliency under a range of sea-level rise and suspended sediment concentration scenarios. At sea-level rise rates 100 cm/century and lower, wetlands remained vegetated. Once sea levels rise above 100 cm, marshes begin to lose ability to maintain elevation, and the presence of adjacent upland habitat becomes increasingly important for marsh migration. The negative effects of sea-level rise on elevations were compounded as suspended sediment concentrations decreased. Results from this study emphasize that the wetland landscape in the bay is threatened with rising sea levels, and there are a limited number of wetlands that will be able to migrate to higher ground as sea levels rise.

Effects of Nose Radius and Aerodynamic Loading on Leading Edge Receptivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammerton, P. W.; Kerschen, E. J.

1998-01-01

An analysis is presented of the effects of airfoil thickness and mean aerodynamic loading on boundary-layer receptivity in the leading-edge region. The case of acoustic free-stream disturbances, incident on a thin cambered airfoil with a parabolic leading edge in a low Mach number flow, is considered. An asymptotic analysis based on large Reynolds number is developed, supplemented by numerical results. The airfoil thickness distribution enters the theory through a Strouhal number based on the nose radius of the airfoil, S = (omega)tau(sub n)/U, where omega is the frequency of the acoustic wave and U is the mean flow speed. The influence of mean aerodynamic loading enters through an effective angle-of-attack parameter ti, related to flow around the leading edge from the lower surface to the upper. The variation of the receptivity level is analyzed as a function of S, mu, and characteristics of the free-stream acoustic wave. For an unloaded leading edge, a finite nose radius dramatically reduces the receptivity level compared to that for a flat plate, the amplitude of the instability waves in the boundary layer being decreased by an order of magnitude when S = 0.3. Modest levels of aerodynamic loading are found to further decrease the receptivity level for the upper surface of the airfoil, while an increase in receptivity level occurs for the lower surface. For larger angles of attack close to the critical angle for boundary layer separation, a local rise in the receptivity level occurs for the upper surface, while for the lower surface the receptivity decreases. The effects of aerodynamic loading are more pronounced at larger values of S. Oblique acoustic waves produce much higher receptivity levels than acoustic waves propagating downstream parallel to the airfoil chord.

Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

PubMed Central

Foster, Tammy E.; Stolen, Eric D.; Hall, Carlton R.; Schaub, Ronald; Duncan, Brean W.; Hunt, Danny K.; Drese, John H.

2017-01-01

Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC’s land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important xeric upland communities, as a foundation for management decisions and future modeling. PMID:28796807

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Developing Integrated Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Sciences Procedures to Assess Impacts of Climate Variations on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Mangroves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaisar, Maha

2016-07-01

Pakistan's periled treasures of mangroves require protection from devastating anthropogenic activities, which can only be achieved through the identification and management of this habitat. The primary objective of this study is to identify the potential habitat of mangroves along the coastline of Pakistan with the help of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Once the mangroves were identified, species of mangroves need to be separated through Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) which gave the area of mangroves and non mangroves sites. Later other parameters of Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, chlorophyll-a along with altimetry data were used to assess the climatic variations on the spatio-temporal distribution of mangroves. Since mangroves provide economical, ecological, biological indication of Coastal Change or Sea Level Rise. Therefore, this provides a strong platform to assess the climatic variations which are posing negative impacts on the mangroves ecosystem. The results indicate that mangroves are present throughout along the coastline, proving that Pakistan is rich in these diverse ecosystems. Pakistan being at important geo strategic position can also benefit from its vast mangroves and other coastal resources such as coral reefs and fish varieties. Moreover, coastal zone management through involvement of the local community and establishment of Marine Protected Area (MPA) is the need of the hour to avoid deforestation of mangroves, which can prove to be deadly damaging for the fish populace since it provides habitats to various marine animals. However, the established relationship among SST, SSS, chlorophyll-a and altimetry data assisted to know the suitable sites for mangroves. But due to enhanced climatic impacts these relationships are distorted which has posed devastating effects on the growth and distribution of mangroves. Study area was Karachi Coast, Pakistan. The total area of Karachi is about 70 km long with vital importance of ecological, economical and biological indication of sea level rise. The desktop work was started with the acquisition of Landsat 8 image then pre-processing was applied, that includes stacking of bands, digitizing of study area and latterly sub setting of this area. Now spectral indices were applied to enhance water and vegetation. Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) were calculated. Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) was performed on land covers to get the land cover maps. However, other parameters of SST, chlorophyll-a of the study area were also estimated using MODIS products to establish the relationship for ascertaining the mangroves growth and distribution. Whereas, sea level in relation with mangroves has a substantial correlation i.e. when the sea level is not changing relative to the mangrove surface, mangrove position remains generally stable. Whereas, if the sea level is falling relative to the mangrove surface, mangrove margins migrate seaward and possibly laterally if these areas adjacent to the mangrove develop conditions suitable for mangrove establishment. Moreover, if sea-level is rising relative to the elevation of the mangrove sediment surface, the mangrove's seaward and landward margins retreat landward as the mangrove species maintain their preferred hydro period. The mangrove may also expand laterally into areas of higher elevation. Therefore, the study of altimetry provides a milestone in the spatio-temporal growth and distribution of mangrove. Thus, this established study can help coastal related agencies to work more efficiently in the field of research and even for the welfare of the coastal community so that the risk of climate variability on the mangrove ecosystem can be minimized.

Projected Sea Level Rise and Changes in Extreme Storm Surge and Wave Events During the 21st Century in the Region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, M. D.; Cannaby, H.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.

2016-02-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, H.; Palmer, M. D.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.; Calvert, D.; Krijnen, J.; Wood, R.; Tinker, J.; Bunney, C.; Harle, J.; Saulter, A.; O'Neill, C.; Bellingham, C.; Lowe, J.

2015-12-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ~ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Simulation of coastal floodings during a typhoon event with the consideration of future sea-level rises.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu-Huei, Jhang; Chih-Chung, Wen; Dong-Jiing, Doong; Cheng-Han, Tsai

2017-04-01

Taiwan is an Island in the western Pacific Ocean and experienced more than 3 typhoons in a year. Typhoons bring intense rainfall, high waves, and storm surges, which often resulted in coastal flooding. The flooding can be aggravated by the sea level rise due to the global warming, which may subject Taiwan's coastal areas to more serious damage in the future than present. The objectives of this study are to investigate the flooding caused by typhoons in the Annan District, Tainan, a city on the southwest coast of Taiwan by numerical simulations, considering the effects of sea-level rises according to the level suggested by the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The simulations were carried out by using MIKE21 HD (a hydrodynamic model) and MIKE21 SW (a spectral wave model). In our simulation, we used an intense typhoon, named Soudelor, as our base typhoon, which made its landfall on the east coast of Taiwan in the summer of 2015, traveled through the width of the island, and exited the island to the north of Tainan. The reasons we pick this typhoon are that it passed near our objective area, wind field data for this typhoon are available, and we have well documented coastal wave and water level measurements during the passage of Typhoon Soudelor. We firstly used ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) wind field data to reconstruct typhoon waves and storm surges for this typhoon by using coupled MIKE21 SW and MIKE21 HD in a regional model. The resultant simulated wave height and sea-level height matched satisfactorily with the measured data. The wave height and storm surge calculated by the regional model provided the boundary conditions for our fine-grid domain. Then different sea-level rises suggested by the IPCC were incorporated into the fine-grid model. Since river discharge due to intense rainfall has also to be considered for coastal flooding, our fine-grid models encompass the estuary of River Yanshui, and measured upstream river discharges were used to simulate the interactions among tide, current, and wave near the estuary of Yanshui River. Our preliminary results showed that with only the effect of rainwater discharge, the maximum surface level of the river during the storm near the estuary was 1.4 m, which is not higher than the river embankments. With the storm surge, the river level at the same location was 2.2 m. With the storm surge and sea-level rise, the maximum river levels near the estuary were 3.6 m and 3.9 m for 2050 and 2100 scenarios, respective. These levels were higher than the embankment height of 3 m. This showed that due to higher sea-level, the area near the estuary will be flooded.

Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology

EPA Science Inventory

Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...

Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise At The Regional Scale: The Bangladesh Sea-Level Project (BanD-AID)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, C. K.; Kuo, C. Y.; Guo, J.; Shang, K.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Valty, P.; Kusche, J.; Hossain, F.; Khan, Z. H.; Rietbroek, R.; Uebbing, B.

2014-12-01

The potential for accelerated sea-level rise under anthropogenic warming is a significant societal problem, in particular in world's coastal deltaic regions where about half of the world's population resides. Quantifying geophysical sources of sea-level rise with the goal of improved projection at local scales remains a complex and challenging interdisciplinary research problem. These processes include ice-sheet/glacier ablations, steric sea-level, solid Earth uplift or subsidence due to GIA, tectonics, sediment loading or anthropogenic causes, hydrologic imbalance, and human processes including water retention in reservoirs and aquifer extraction. The 2013 IPCC AR5 concluded that the observed and explained geophysical causes of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1993-2010, is closer towards closure. However, the discrepancy reveals that circa 1.3→37.5% of the observed sea-level rise remains unexplained. This relatively large discrepancy is primarily attributable to the wide range of estimates of respective contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets and mountain/peripheral glaciers to sea-level rise. Understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing solid Earth (land, islands and sea-floor) uplift or subsidence at the regional and local scales remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to relative sea-level rise hazards, such as the Bangladesh Delta. This study focuses on addressing coastal vulnerability of Bangladesh, a Belmont Forum/IGFA project, BanD-AID (http://Belmont-SeaLevel.org). Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability, affecting 150 million people in one of the world's most densely populated regions. Here we present preliminary results using space geodetic observations, including satellite radar and laser altimetry, GRACE gravity, tide gauge, hydrographic, and GPS/InSAR observed land subsidence, and via fingerprint sea-level adjustment and reconstructed sea-level approaches, for improved quantification of major contributions to, and the projection of relative sea-level rise at the Bangladesh delta, towards addressing its coastal vulnerability and sustainability.

Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

2016-02-01

Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021-2030) to implement both the safety and the transformation and development of the city.

Rising ground-water level in downtown Louisville, Kentucky, 1972-1977

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kernodle, J.M.; Whitesides, D.V.

1977-01-01

Ground-water levels in the alluvial aquifer in Louisville, Jefferson County, Kentucky, are rising at a rate which could cause wet basements and possible structural damage tc buildings in the downtown area by 1982. The predicted water level for 1982 is based on the nearly linear increase which has been observed from 1972 to 1977, during which period a rise of as much as 32 feet was recorded in water-level observation wells. Foremost among the possible causes of the rise is a decrease in withdrawal of ground water.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) consists of relatively stable to washover-dominated portions of carbonate beach and man-made fortification. The areas within Dry Tortugas that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest rates of shoreline erosion and the highest wave energy.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Theiler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Cape Hatteras National Seashore consists of stable and washover dominated segments of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Cape Hatteras that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) to Sea-Level Rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress; Beavers, Rebecca S.

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Padre Island National Seashore in Texas. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Padre Island National Seashore consists of stable to washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland, marsh, tidal flat, or grassland. The areas within Padre that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Challenges in Projecting Sea Level Rise impacts on the Coastal Environment of South Florida (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.

2010-12-01

Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.

Land subsidence and relative sea-level rise in the southern Chesapeake Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, Jack; Pope, Jason

2013-01-01

The southern Chesapeake Bay region is experiencing land subsidence and rising water levels due to global sea-level rise; land subsidence and rising water levels combine to cause relative sea-level rise. Land subsidence has been observed since the 1940s in the southern Chesapeake Bay region at rates of 1.1 to 4.8 millimeters per year (mm/yr), and subsidence continues today. This land subsidence helps explain why the region has the highest rates of sea-level rise on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Data indicate that land subsidence has been responsible for more than half the relative sea-level rise measured in the region. Land subsidence increases the risk of flooding in low-lying areas, which in turn has important economic, environmental, and human health consequences for the heavily populated and ecologically important southern Chesapeake Bay region. The aquifer system in the region has been compacted by extensive groundwater pumping in the region at rates of 1.5- to 3.7-mm/yr; this compaction accounts for more than half of observed land subsidence in the region. Glacial isostatic adjustment, or the flexing of the Earth’s crust in response to glacier formation and melting, also likely contributes to land subsidence in the region.

Rise of Buoyant Emissions from Low-Level Sources in the Presence of Upstream and Downstream Obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournazeri, Sam; Princevac, Marko; Venkatram, Akula

2012-08-01

Field and laboratory studies have been conducted to investigate the effect of surrounding buildings on the plume rise from low-level buoyant sources, such as distributed power generators. The field experiments were conducted in Palm Springs, California, USA in November 2010 and plume rise from a 9.3 m stack was measured. In addition to the field study, a laboratory study was conducted in a water channel to investigate the effects of surrounding buildings on plume rise under relatively high wind-speed conditions. Different building geometries and source conditions were tested. The experiments revealed that plume rise from low-level buoyant sources is highly affected by the complex flows induced by buildings stationed upstream and downstream of the source. The laboratory results were compared with predictions from a newly developed numerical plume-rise model. Using the flow measurements associated with each building configuration, the numerical model accurately predicted plume rise from low-level buoyant sources that are influenced by buildings. This numerical plume rise model can be used as a part of a computational fluid dynamics model.

Late Quaternary Deformation and Relative Sea Level Changes in Southwest Luzon, Philippines Constrained from Emergent Coral Reef Terraces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, K. V.; Ramos, N. T.; Tsutsumi, H.; Shen, C. C.

2017-12-01

Emergent coral reef terraces fringing the islands of Lubang and Cabra located offshore southwest Luzon Island, Philippines are studied to understand Late Quaternary deformation and relative sea level changes along the southern terminus of the Manila subduction zone. In both islands, the emergent coral reef platforms have two to three terrace steps with meter-scale terrace risers and often well preserved. We also observed varied elevations of emergent coral reef platforms in both localities. In the northwest portion of Lubang Island, we identified three terrace steps, which rise to about 5 m above mean sea level (amsl). Cabra Island is a coral island that is fringed by two to possibly three steps of emergent coral reef terraces rising up to 11.9 m amsl with TI measured at 3-6 m, TII: 7-8 m, and TIII: 11.9 m amsl. Age constraints are provided by Thorium-230 of fossil corals taken on terrace surfaces. Thorium-230 ages obtained from attached fossil coral samples yielded mid-Holocene ages of 5,121 ± 16 and 3,221 ± 10 years BP. Late Holocene ages of 76 ± 2, 153 ± 2, and 330 ± 3 years BP are meanwhile provided by coral boulders found on the surface of TI in Cabra Island. The two sets of Holocene ages provide interesting insights on relative sea level changes and uplift along the southern end of the Manila Trench. The mid-Holocene ages possibly account for accumulated uplift in southwest Luzon while the late Holocene ages could provide evidence for extreme wave events that occurred in the region since the 1600s.

Precipitation driven decadal scale decline and recovery of wetlands of Lake Pannon during the Tortonian

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Gross, Martin

2012-01-01

High resolution pollen and dinoflagellate analyses were performed on a continuous 98-cm-long core from Tortonian deposits of Lake Pannon in the Styrian Basin in Austria. The sample distance of 1-cm corresponds to a resolution of roughly one decade, allowing insights into environmental and climatic changes over a millennium of Late Miocene time. Shifts in lake level, surface water productivity on a decadal- to centennial-scale can be explained by variations of rainfall during the Tortonian climatic optimum. Related to negative fine scale shifts of mean annual precipitation, shoreline vegetation belts reacted in an immediate replacement of Poaceae by Cyperaceae as dominant grasses in the marshes fringing the lake. In contrast to such near-synchronous ecosystem-responses to precipitation, a delayed lake level rise of 4–6 decades is evident in the hydrological budget of Lake Pannon. This transgression, caused by a precipitation increase up to > 1200 mm/yr, resulted in a complete dieback of marshes. Simultaneously, “open-water” dinoflagellates, such as Impagidinium, took over in the brackish lagoon and fresh water dinoflagellates disappeared. As soon as the rainfall switched back to moderate levels of ~ 1100–1200 mm/yr, the rise of the lake level slowed down, the marsh plants could keep up again and the former vegetation belts became re-established. Thus, mean annual precipitation, more than temperature, was the main driving force for high-frequency fluctuations in the Tortonian wetlands and surface water conditions of Lake Pannon. Such high resolution studies focusing on Tortonian decadal to centennial climate change will be crucial to test climate models which try to compare the Tortonian models with predictions for future climate change. PMID:23576820

Future evolution of a tidal inlet due to changes in wave climate, Sea level and lagoon morphology (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruneau, Nicolas; Fortunato, André B.; Dodet, Guillaume; Freire, Paula; Oliveira, Anabela; Bertin, Xavier

2011-11-01

Tidal inlets are extremely dynamic, as a result of an often delicate balance between the effects of tides, waves and other forcings. Since the morphology of these inlets can affect navigation, water quality and ecosystem dynamics, there is a clear need to anticipate their evolution in order to promote adequate management decisions. Over decadal time scales, the position and size of tidal inlets are expected to evolve with the conditions that affect them, for instance as a result of climate change. A process-based morphodynamic modeling system is validated and used to analyze the effects of sea level rise, an expected shift in the wave direction and the reduction of the upper lagoon surface area by sedimentation on a small tidal inlet (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal). A new approach to define yearly wave regimes is first developed, which includes a seasonal behavior, random inter-annual variability and the possibility to extrapolate trends. Once validated, this approach is used to produce yearly time series of wave spectra for the present and for the end of the 21st century, considering the local rotation trends computed using hindcast results for the past 57 years. Predictions of the mean sea level for 2100 are based on previous studies, while the bathymetry of the upper lagoon for the same year is obtained by extrapolation of past trends. Results show, and data confirm, that the Óbidos lagoon inlet has three stable configurations, largely determined by the inter-annual variations in the wave characteristics. Both sea level rise and the reduction of the lagoon surface area will promote the accretion of the inlet. In contrast, the predicted rotation of the wave regime, within foreseeable limits, will have a negligible impact on the inlet morphology.

Changes in environment, climate, land-use and population growth cause significant change in recharge on the western coast of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Angela; Weiß, Johannes

2013-04-01

Changes in climate, land-use and population do not necessarily lead to groundwater depletion, but could instead result in rising groundwater levels, which can cause severe problems. In the course of the refurbishment and expansion programme for the Holy City of Mecca (KSA), Jeddah Airport is being expanded to a greater capacity; in addition, rapid development of residential areas of Jeddah is underway. During the last, decade flash floods and rising groundwater levels have been observed. The latter are affecting the foundations of buildings due to uplift and corrosion by highly mineralized water. The primary objective of this study is investigate the causes of groundwater rise and to propose appropriate measures in order to keep the groundwater table below an acceptable level over the next 100 years. Groundwater hydrographs clearly show impacts of natural climatic and hydrologic changes over the last 30 years. Possibly reasons for groundwater rise in this arid area are climatic impacts by increased precipitation or from an enhanced recharge via wadi leakage or flood control reservoirs. In addition, anthropogenic impacts might arise from leakages from water supply and waste water systems. In order to identify and quantify possible contributions to groundwater recharge, a numerical groundwater model has been developed comprising a sound investigation of the local water balance. The model addresses an area of approximately 900 km around the city of Jeddah, reaching from the Red Sea to the catchment boundaries of adjacent wadis. Vertically three layers of alluvium, fractured and weathered rock are integrated. Information from many shallow boreholes and some deep boreholes comprising stratigraphy and hydraulic parameters is incorporated. The spatial distribution of recharge is taken from the analysis of existing and planned water supply and waste water networks. Knowledge from geophysical investigations about aquifer thickness and permeability was used for the transient calibration. Thus, from the groundwater rise with known storage coefficients the leakage was estimated and checked for plausibility. Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis include the identification of key model parameters, the parameter ranges for the prediction of groundwater levels and the characterization of associated uncertainties. The modelling results show that indeed the anthropogenic recharge caused by leakage from water infrastructure is the most important source of groundwater level rise. Thus, to improve model accuracy, a methodology is needed to cope with limited data availability regarding the leakage from pipelines. For the design of future management strategies, modelling scenarios are used to quantify the factors with possible impacts on groundwater levels, including Red Sea water level rise due to climate change, as well as potentially significant changes in land use, water distribution systems, waste water management, storm water and flood control, and irrigation. The model results are used for the design of a field-based groundwater and surface water monitoring system. Based on these measurements, a decision support system for future groundwater control is planned to be integrated into the upgrade of the water and waste water master plan.

Future Wave Height Situation estimated by the Latest Climate Scenario around Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, D.; Yokoki, H.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yamano, H.; Kayanne, H.; Okajima, H.; Kawamiya, M.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise due to the global warming is significant phenomenon to coastal region in the world. Especially the atoll islands, which are low-lying and narrow, have high vulnerability against the sea-level rise. Recently the improved future climate projection (MIROC-ESM) was provided by JAMSTEC, which adopted the latest climate scenarios based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) of the green house gasses. Wave field simulation including the latest sea-level rise pathway by MIROC-ESM was conducted to understand the change of significant wave heights in Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, which was an important factor to manage the coast protection. MIROC-ESM provides monthly sea surface height in the fine gridded world (1.5 degree near the equator). Wave field simulation was conducted using the climate scenario of RCP45 in which the radioactive forcing of the end of 21st century was stabilized to 4.5 W/m2. Sea-level rise ratio of every 10 years was calculated based on the historical data set from 1850 to 2005 and the estimated data set from 2006 to 2100. In that case, the sea-level increases by 10cm after 100 years. In this study, the numerical simulation of wave field at the rate of sea-level rise was carried out using the SWAN model. The wave and wind conditions around Funafuti atoll is characterized by two seasons that are the trade (Apr. - Nov.) and non-trade (Jan. - Mar., Dec.) wind season. Then, we set up the two seasonal boundary conditions for one year's simulation, which were calculated from ECMWF reanalysis data. Simulated results of significant wave heights are analyzed by the increase rate (%) calculated from the base results (Average for 2000 - 2005) and the results of 2100. Calculated increase rate of the significant wave height for both seasons was extremely high on the reef-flat. Maximum increase rates of the trade and non-trade wind season were 1817% and 686%, respectively. The southern part of the atoll has high increasing rate through the two seasons. In the non-trade wind season, the northern tip and the southern part of the island were higher increase rate in the lagoon-side coasts, which was about 7%, and the average rate was 3.4%. On the other hand, the average rate in the trade wind season was 5.0%. Ocean side coast has high increase rate through the two seasons. Especially, the very large rate was calculated in the northern part of the Fongafale Island locally. The DEM data in the middle of Fongafale Island, which is most populated area in the island, showed that the northern oceanic coast has wide and high storm ridge and the increase rate was extremely large there. In such coasts, sea-level rise due to global warming has same effect as storm surge due to tropical cyclone in the point of increasing the sea-level, although the time scale of them is not same. Thus we can consider that the calculated area with large increase rate has already experienced the high wave due to tropical cyclone, which was enabled to construct the wide and high storm ridge. This result indicated that the effective coastal management under the sea-level rise needs to understand not only the quantitative estimation of the future situation but also the protect potential constructed by the present wave and wind condition.

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

2017-01-01

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

2016-01-01

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA.

PubMed

Rice, Karen C; Hong, Bo; Shen, Jian

2012-11-30

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen; Bo Hong,; Jian Shen,

2012-01-01

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm.

Consequences of sea level variability and sea level rise for Cuban territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, M.; Martínez, C. A.; Marzo, O.

2015-03-01

The objective of the present paper was to determine a first approximation of coastal zone flooding by 2100, taking into account the more persistent processes of sea level variability and non-accelerated linear sea level rise estimation to assess the main impacts. The annual linear rate of mean sea level rise in the Cuban archipelago, obtained from the longest tide gauge records, has fluctuated between 0.005 cm/year at Casilda and 0.214 cm/year at Siboney. The main sea level rise effects for the Cuban coastal zone due to climate change and global warming are shown. Monthly and annual mean sea level anomalies, some of which are similar to or higher than the mean sea level rise estimated for halfway through the present century, reinforce the inland seawater penetration due to the semi-daily high tide. The combination of these different events will result in the loss of goods and services, and require expensive investments for adaption.

Broadband ground-motion simulation using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.W.; Pitarka, A.

2010-01-01

This paper describes refinements to the hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2004), which combines a deterministic approach at low frequencies (f 1 Hz). In our approach, fault rupture is represented kinematically and incorporates spatial heterogeneity in slip, rupture speed, and rise time. The prescribed slip distribution is constrained to follow an inverse wavenumber-squared fall-off and the average rupture speed is set at 80% of the local shear-wave velocity, which is then adjusted such that the rupture propagates faster in regions of high slip and slower in regions of low slip. We use a Kostrov-like slip-rate function having a rise time proportional to the square root of slip, with the average rise time across the entire fault constrained empirically. Recent observations from large surface rupturing earthquakes indicate a reduction of rupture propagation speed and lengthening of rise time in the near surface, which we model by applying a 70% reduction of the rupture speed and increasing the rise time by a factor of 2 in a zone extending from the surface to a depth of 5 km. We demonstrate the fidelity of the technique by modeling the strong-motion recordings from the Imperial Valley, Loma Prieta, Landers, and Northridge earthquakes.

On the design of high-rise buildings with a specified level of reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolganov, Andrey; Kagan, Pavel

2018-03-01

High-rise buildings have a specificity, which significantly distinguishes them from traditional buildings of high-rise and multi-storey buildings. Steel structures in high-rise buildings are advisable to be used in earthquake-proof regions, since steel, due to its plasticity, provides damping of the kinetic energy of seismic impacts. These aspects should be taken into account when choosing a structural scheme of a high-rise building and designing load-bearing structures. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of structures. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. The article shows the possibility of designing metal structures of high-rise buildings with specified reliability. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of high-rise buildings. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. It is proposed to establish the value of reliability 0.99865 (3σ) for constructions of buildings and structures of a normal level of responsibility in calculations for the first group of limiting states. For increased (construction of high-rise buildings) and reduced levels of responsibility for the provision of load-bearing capacity, it is proposed to assign respectively 0.99997 (4σ) and 0.97725 (2σ). The coefficients of the use of the cross section of a metal beam for different levels of security are given.

Enhanced Dynamics of Hydrated tRNA on Nanodiamond Surfaces: A Combined Neutron Scattering and MD Simulation Study.

PubMed

Dhindsa, Gurpreet K; Bhowmik, Debsindhu; Goswami, Monojoy; O'Neill, Hugh; Mamontov, Eugene; Sumpter, Bobby G; Hong, Liang; Ganesh, Panchapakesan; Chu, Xiang-Qiang

2016-09-14

Nontoxic, biocompatible nanodiamonds (ND) have recently been implemented in rational, systematic design of optimal therapeutic use in nanomedicines. However, hydrophilicity of the ND surface strongly influences structure and dynamics of biomolecules that restrict in situ applications of ND. Therefore, fundamental understanding of the impact of hydrophilic ND surface on biomolecules at the molecular level is essential. For tRNA, we observe an enhancement of dynamical behavior in the presence of ND contrary to generally observed slow motion at strongly interacting interfaces. We took advantage of neutron scattering experiments and computer simulations to demonstrate this atypical faster dynamics of tRNA on ND surface. The strong attractive interactions between ND, tRNA, and water give rise to unlike dynamical behavior and structural changes of tRNA in front of ND compared to without ND. Our new findings may provide new design principles for safer, improved drug delivery platforms.

Strongly Enhanced THz Emission caused by Localized Surface Charges in Semiconducting Germanium Nanowires

PubMed Central

Lee, Woo-Jung; Ma, Jin Won; Bae, Jung Min; Jeong, Kwang-Sik; Cho, Mann-Ho; Kang, Chul; Wi, Jung-Sub

2013-01-01

A principal cause of THz emission in semiconductor nanostructures is deeply involved with geometry, which stimulates the utilization of indirect bandgap semiconductors for THz applications. To date, applications for optoelectronic devices, such as emitters and detectors, using THz radiation have focused only on direct bandgap materials. This paper reports the first observation of strongly enhanced THz emission from Germanium nanowires (Ge NWs). The origin of THz generation from Ge NWs can be interpreted using two terms: high photoexcited electron-hole carriers (Δn) and strong built-in electric field (Eb) at the wire surface based on the relation . The first is related to the extensive surface area needed to trigger an irradiated photon due to high aspect ratio. The second corresponds to the variation of Fermi-level determined by confined surface charges. Moreover, the carrier dynamics of optically excited electrons and holes give rise to phonon emission according to the THz region. PMID:23760467

Absolute Sea-level Changes Derived from Integrated Geodetic Datasets (1955-2016) in the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L.; Wang, G.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

Rising sea level has important direct impacts on coastal and island regions such as the Caribbean where the influence of sea-level rise is becoming more apparent. The Caribbean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea adjacent to the landmasses of South and Central America to the south and west, and the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles separate it from the Atlantic Ocean to the north and east. The work focus on studying the relative and absolute sea-level changes by integrating tide gauge, GPS, and satellite altimetry datasets (1955-2016) within the Caribbean Sea. Further, the two main components of absolute sea-level change, ocean mass and steric sea-level changes, are respectively studied using GRACE, temperature, and salinity datasets (1955-2016). According to the analysis conducted, the sea-level change rates have considerable temporal and spatial variations, and estimates may be subject to the techniques used and observation periods. The average absolute sea-level rise rate is 1.8±0.3 mm/year for the period from 1955 to 2015 according to the integrated tide gauge and GPS observations; the average absolute sea-level rise rate is 3.5±0.6 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2016 according to the satellite altimetry observations. This study shows that the absolute sea-level change budget in the Caribbean Sea is closed in the periods from 1955 to 2016, in which ocean mass change dominates the absolute sea-level rise. The absolute sea-level change budget is also closed in the periods from 2004 to 2016, in which steric sea-level rise dominates the absolute sea-level rise.

Impact of uncertainty in surface forcing on the new SODA 3 global reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, J.; Chepurin, G. A.; Chen, L.

2016-02-01

An updated version of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis (SODA 3)has been constructed based on GFDL MOM ocean and sea ice numerics, with improved resolution and other changes. A series of three 30+ year long global ocean reanalysis experiments (1980-2014) have carried out which differ only in the choice of specified daily surface heat, momentum, and freshwater forcing: MERRA2, ERA-Int, and ERA-20. The first two forcing data sets make extensive use of satellite observations while the third only uses surface observations. The differences in the resulting SODA reanalysis experiments allow us to explore a major source of error in ocean reanalyses, which is the uncertainty introduced by errors in the surface forcing. The modest differences among the experiments tend to be concentrated at higher latitude where the MERRA2-SODA has a somewhat cooler (1C), saltier (1psu) surface leading to lower (10cm) sea level. Cooler conditions affect the upper 300m heat content at high latitude (although MERRA2-SODA HC300 is higher in the subtropics). RMS differences are small except for surface salinity at high latitude (1psu). The implications for such issues thermosteric sea level, the overturning circulation, and the rise of global heat storage will be discussed.

Sea-level variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

2017-04-01

The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with climate model simulations forced with sustained NAO-like heat fluxes. Changes in the wind-driven ocean circulation may also contribute to alongshore sea level variability over the CE. To reveal global mean sea level variability, we combine the salt-marsh data from North American Atlantic coast with tide-gauge records and other high resolution proxies from the northern and southern hemispheres. All reconstructions are from coasts that are tectonically stable and are based on four types of proxy archives (archaeological indicators, coral microatolls, salt marsh sediments and vermetid [mollusk] bioconstructions) that are best capable of capturing submeter-scale RSL changes. The database consists of reconstructions from Australasia (n = 2), Europe (n=5), Greenland (n = 3), North America (n = 6), the northern Gulf of Mexico (n = 3), the Mediterranean (n = 1), South Africa (n = 2), South America (n =2) and the South Pacific (n =3). We apply a noisy-input Gaussian process spatio-temporal modeling framework, which identifies a long-term falling global mean sea-level, interrupted in the middle of the 19th century by an acceleration yielding a 20th century rate of rise extremely likely (probability P = 0:95) faster than any previous century in the CE.

A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

2018-03-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Bruce C.

Twentieth-century relative sea level rise shows considerable variability along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Local rates of rise lie in the range of about 1.5 to more than 4 mm per year for records from Key West, Florida, to New York City. Rates of sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico can be much higher. In Texas and Louisiana, long-term water levels are rising up to about 10 mm per year. This is having disastrous consequences in the form of wetlands loss in the region, estimated to be as much as 65 km2 per year in the Mississippi Delta area of Louisiana alone. Beach erosion is also significant along both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, resulting in ever-increasing exposure of fixed structures to the damaging impacts of storms. The especially high rates of sea level rise in Louisiana and Texas are a result of their particular geomorphology, and anthropogenic alterations in the form of sediment diversion and withdrawal of underground fluids. The average long-term local rate of sea level rise on the rest of the U.S. East and Gulf coasts when corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment is about 2 mm per year, in conformity with 20th century global sea level rise. U.S. East and Gulf coast tide gauge records also have regionally coherent low frequency (decadal and longer) variations that need to be understood because of their impact on wetlands loss, and to enable accurate determination of long-term trends of sea level rise.

Experimental study on the artificial recharge of semiconfined aquifers involved in deep excavation engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, G.; Cao, J. R.; Cheng, X. S.; Ha, D.; Wang, F. J.

2018-02-01

Artificial recharge measures have been adopted to control the drawdown of confined aquifers and the ground subsidence caused by dewatering during deep excavation in Tianjin, Shanghai and other regions in China. However, research on recharge theory is still limited. Additionally, confined aquifers consisting of silt and silty sand in Tianjin have lower hydraulic conductivities than those consisting of sand or gravel, and the feasibility and effectiveness of recharge methods in these semiconfined aquifers urgently require investigation. A series of single-well and multiwell pumping and recharge tests was conducted at a metro station excavation site in Tianjin. The test results showed that it was feasible to recharge silt and silty sand semiconfined aquifers, and, to a certain extent, the hydrogeological parameters obtained from the pumping tests could be used to predict the water level rise during single-well recharge. However, the predicted results underestimated the water level rise near the recharge well (within 7 m) by approximately 10-25%, likely because the permeability coefficient around the well was reduced during the recharge process. Pressured recharge significantly improved the efficiency of the recharge process. Maintaining the recharge and pumping rates at a nearly equal level effectively controlled the surrounding surface and building settlement. However, the surrounding surface subsidence tended to rapidly develop when recharge stopped. Therefore, the recharge process should continue and gradually stop after the pumping stops. The twin-well combined recharge technique can be used to control the head loss of an aquifer when one of the recharge wells requires pumping to solve the associated clogging problems.

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Marinova, Natasha; Lowe, Jason A; Brown, Sally; Vellinga, Pier; de Gusmão, Diogo; Hinkel, Jochen; Tol, Richard S J

2011-01-13

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m--the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

Three Dimensional Glacier Flow of Bylot Island Derived Using Sentinel 1A and 1B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobeck, J. M.

With the rise of temperatures in the Arctic, Sentinel 1A and 1B data are used to examine the current state of Bylot Island's glaciers. This will provide valuable data for future sea-level and climate models to accurately predict the contribution the High Canadian Arctic has to sea-level rise. Bylot Island is in a unique location in the High Canadian Arctic, as it sits on a transition zone between warming in the north and historical cooling to the south. By using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), the three dimensional velocity vectors are calculated and used to produce horizontal velocity and melt loss maps for Bylot Island. Optical Feature Tracking is employed using Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 data to validate results and calculate Bylot Island's ice cap extent. Results show a decrease in overall glacier velocity, but increased glacier thinning from surface melt. Increased glacial thinning can be contributed to a Melt-Albedo positive feedback cycle. With melting beginning earlier each season, the overall extent of Bylot Island is rapidly decreasing and contributing more melt to sea-level than previously thought.

Cost-effectiveness model for prevention of early childhood caries.

PubMed

Ramos-Gomez, F J; Shepard, D S

1999-07-01

This study presents and illustrates a model that determines the cost-effectiveness of three successively more complete levels of preventive intervention (minimal, intermediate, and comprehensive) in treating dental caries in disadvantaged children up to 6 years of age. Using existing data on the costs of early childhood caries (ECC), the authors estimated the probable cost-effectiveness of each of the three preventive intervention levels by comparing treatment costs to prevention costs as applied to a typical low-income California child for five years. They found that, in general, prevention becomes cost-saving if at least 59 percent of carious lesions receive restorative treatment. Assuming an average restoration cost of $112 per surface, the model predicts cost savings of $66 to $73 in preventing a one-surface, carious lesion. Thus, all three levels of preventive intervention should be relatively cost-effective. Comprehensive intervention would provide the greatest oral health benefit; however, because more children would receive reparative care, overall program costs would rise even as per-child treatment costs decline.

An experimental investigation of temperature rise during compaction of pharmaceutical powders.

PubMed

Krok, Alexander; Mirtic, Andreja; Reynolds, Gavin K; Schiano, Serena; Roberts, Ron; Wu, Chuan-Yu

2016-11-20

During pharmaceutical powder compaction, temperature rise in the compressed powder can affect physiochemical properties of the powder, such as thermal degradation and change in crystallinity. Thus, it is of practical importance to understand the effect of process conditions and material properties on the thermal response of pharmaceutical formulations during compaction. The aim of this study was to examine the temperature rise of pharmaceutical powders during tableting, in particular, to explore how the temperature rise depends on material properties, compression speed and tablet shape. Three grades of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) were considered: MCC Avicel pH 101, MCC Avicel pH 102 and MCC DG. These powders were compressed using a compaction simulator at various compaction speeds (10-500mm/s). Flat faced, shallow convex and normal convex tablets were produced and temperature distributions on the surface of theses tablets upon ejection were examined using an infrared thermoviewer. It was found that an increase in the compaction speed led to an increase in the average surface temperature. A higher surface temperature was induced when the powder was compressed into a tablet with larger surface curvature. This was primarily due to the increasing degree of powder deformation (i.e. the volume reduction) and the effect of interparticule/wall friction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

75 FR 1803 - Lower Florida Keys Refuges, Monroe County, FL

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-13

... fully assessed and the effect of climate change (e.g., sea level rise) is not known. We would protect... (e.g., hurricanes, wildfire) and global climate change, particularly sea level rise. Current ongoing... evaluate the potential impacts of sea level rise on the ecology of wading birds. Since a primary purpose of...

78 FR 49831 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-15

... Service (NPS) for the Florida leafwing and the pine rockland ecosystem, in general. Sea Level Rise... habitat. In the best case scenario, which assumes low sea level rise, high financial resources, proactive... human population. In the worst case scenario, which assumes high sea level rise, low financial resources...

Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology - for posting on website

EPA Science Inventory

Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats incl...

Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.

2016-11-01

Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.

IN VITRO STUDY OF THE PULP CHAMBER TEMPERATURE RISE DURING LIGHT-ACTIVATED BLEACHING

PubMed Central

Carrasco, Thaise Graciele; Carrasco-Guerisoli, Laise Daniela; Fröner, Izabel Cristina

2008-01-01

This study evaluated in vitro the pulp chamber temperature rise induced by the light-activated dental bleaching technique using different light sources. The root portions of 78 extracted sound human mandibular incisors were sectioned approximately 2 mm below the cementoenamel junction. The root cavities of the crowns were enlarged to facilitate the correct placing of the sensor into the pulp chamber. Half of specimens (n=39) was assigned to receive a 35% hydrogen peroxide gel on the buccal surface and the other halt (n=39) not to receive the bleaching agent. Three groups (n=13) were formed for each condition (bleach or no bleach) according to the use of 3 light sources recommended for dental bleaching: a light-emitting diode (LED)-laser system, a LED unit and a conventional halogen light. The light sources were positioned perpendicular to the buccal surface at a distance of 5 mm and activated during 30 s. The differences between the initial and the highest temperature readings for each specimen were obtained, and, from the temperature changes, the means for each specimen and each group were calculated. The values of temperature rise were compared using Kruskal-Wallis test at 1% significance level. Temperature rise varied significantly depending on the light-curing unit, with statistically significant differences (p<0.01) among the groups. When the bleaching agent was not applied, the halogen light induced the highest temperature rise (2.38±0.66°C). The LED unit produced the lowest temperature increase (0.29±0.13°C); but there was no significant difference between LED unit and LED-laser system (0.35±0.15°C) (p>0.01). When the bleaching agent was applied, there were significant differences among groups (p<0.01): halogen light induced the highest temperature rise (1.41±0.64°C), and LED-laser system the lowest (0.33±0.12°C); however, there was no difference between LED-laser system and LED unit (0.44±0.11°C). LED and LED-laser system did not differ significantly from each other regardless the temperature rise occurred with or without bleaching agent application. It may be concluded that during light-activated tooth bleaching, with or without the bleaching agent, halogen light promoted higher pulp chamber temperature rise than LED unit and LED-laser system. The tested light-curing units provided increases in the pulp chamber temperature that were compatible with pulpal health. PMID:19089234

Sedimentation and response to sea-level rise of a restored marsh with reduced tidal exchange: Comparison with a natural tidal marsh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandenbruwaene, W.; Maris, T.; Cahoon, D.R.; Meire, P.; Temmerman, S.

2011-01-01

Along coasts and estuaries, formerly embanked land is increasingly restored into tidal marshes in order to re-establish valuable ecosystem services, such as buffering against flooding. Along the Scheldt estuary (Belgium), tidal marshes are restored on embanked land by allowing a controlled reduced tide (CRT) into a constructed basin, through a culvert in the embankment. In this way tidal water levels are significantly lowered (ca. 3 m) so that a CRT marsh can develop on formerly embanked land with a ca. 3 m lower elevation than the natural tidal marshes. In this study we compared the long-term change in elevation (ΔE) within a CRT marsh and adjacent natural tidal marsh. Over a period of 4 years, the observed spatio-temporal variations in ΔE rate were related to variations in inundation depth, and this relationship was not significantly different for the CRT marsh and natural tidal marsh. A model was developed to simulate the ΔE over the next century. (1) Under a scenario without mean high water level (MHWL) rise in the estuary, the model shows that the marsh elevation-ΔE feedback that is typical for a natural tidal marsh (i.e. rising marsh elevation results in decreasing inundation depth and therefore a decreasing increase in elevation) is absent in the basin of the CRT marsh. This is because tidal exchange of water volumes between the estuary and CRT marsh are independent from the CRT marsh elevation but dependent on the culvert dimensions. Thus the volume of water entering the CRT remains constant regardless of the marsh elevation. Consequently the CRT MHWL follows the increase in CRT surface elevation, resulting after 75 years in a 2–2.5 times larger elevation gain in the CRT marsh, and a faster reduction of spatial elevation differences. (2) Under a scenario of constant MHWL rise (historical rate of 1.5 cm a-1), the equilibrium elevation (relative to MHWL) is 0.13 m lower in the CRT marsh and is reached almost 2 times faster. (3) Under a scenario of accelerated MHWL rise (acceleration of 0.02 cm a-1), the CRT marsh is much less able to keep up with the MHWL rise; after 75 years the CRT elevation is already 0.21 m lower than for the natural marsh. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that although short-term (4 years) ΔE rates are similar in a restored CRT marsh and natural tidal marsh, these ecosystems may evolve differently in response to sea-level rise in the longer term (10–100 years).

Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

2017-12-01

For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

Sea Level Driven Marsh Expansion in a Coupled Model of Marsh Erosion, Forest Retreat, and Human Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Walters, D. C.; Reay, W.; Carr, J.

2016-12-01

Salt marsh ecosystem services depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here, we present a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands, and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how connectivity between adjacent ecosystems influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that ecogeomorphic feedbacks tend to stabilize soil elevations relative to sea level rise so that changes in marsh size are determined mostly by the competition between ecological transitions at the upland boundary, and physical erosion at the seaward boundary. Salt marsh loss and natural flood protection is nearly inevitable under rapid sea level rise rates where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit marsh migration into uplands. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. Together, this behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise, and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention. Analysis of 19th century maps and modern photographs from the Chesapeake Bay region confirm that migration rates are more sensitive to sea level rise than erosion rate, and indicate that transgression has thus far allowed marshes to survive the fastest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic Coast. This work suggests that the flux of organisms and sediment across adjacent ecosystems leads to an increase in system resilience that could not be inferred from studies that consider individual components of landscape change.

The assessment of waters ecological state of the Crimea coastal near high-rise construction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vetrova, Natalya; Ivanenko, Tatyana; Mannanov, Emran

2018-03-01

The relevance of our study is determined by the significant level of coastal sea waters pollution by sewage near high-rise construction zones, which determines the violation of the sanitary and hygienic of sea waters `characteristics and limits the possibilities for organizing recreational activities. The purpose of this study is to identify the ecological state of the marine aquatic area by the example of the Western Crimea near high-rise construction zones. The studies confirmed that the recreational and coastal area wastewater is intensely mixed with seawater, as a result, the pollution in the coastal strip of the sea in the area of deep water discharges sharply decrease. This happens because of water rapid rise to the surface and under the influence of the continuous movement of sea water huge masses with deep-water discharge, fresh wastewater is actively mixed with sea water. However, with no doubt, it is inadmissible to discharge sewage into the sea directly from the shore, but only at the estimated distance from the coast. The materials of the article can be useful for the management bodies and organizations involved in monitoring the quality of the coastal zone of the sea, teachers and students of higher educational institutions when assessing the ecological situation of the territories.

SAR investigations of glaciers in northwestern North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lingle, Craig S.; Harrison, William D.

1995-01-01

The objective of this project was to investigate the utility of satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery for measurement of geophysical parameters on Alaskan glaciers relevant to their mass balance and dynamics, including: (1) the positions of firn lines (late-summer snow lines); (2) surface velocities on fast-flowing (surging) glaciers, and also on slower steady-flow glaciers; and (3) the positions and changes in the positions of glacier termini. Preliminary studies of topography and glacier surface velocity with SAR interferometry have also been carried out. This project was motivated by the relationships of multi-year to decadal changes in glacier geometry to changing climate, and the probable significant contribution of Alaskan glaciers to rising sea level.

Statistical analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and sea-floor seismicity in the eastern tropical Pacific.

PubMed

Guillas, Serge; Day, Simon J; McGuire, B

2010-05-28

We present statistical evidence for a temporal link between variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of earthquakes on the East Pacific Rise (EPR). We adopt a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to represent the relationship between the number of earthquakes in the Easter microplate on the EPR and ENSO (expressed using the southern oscillation index (SOI) for east Pacific sea-level pressure anomalies) from February 1973 to February 2009. We also examine the relationship between the numbers of earthquakes and sea levels, as retrieved by Topex/Poseidon from October 1992 to July 2002. We observe a significant (95% confidence level) positive influence of SOI on seismicity: positive SOI values trigger more earthquakes over the following 2 to 6 months than negative SOI values. There is a significant negative influence of absolute sea levels on seismicity (at 6 months lag). We propose that increased seismicity is associated with ENSO-driven sea-surface gradients (rising from east to west) in the equatorial Pacific, leading to a reduction in ocean-bottom pressure over the EPR by a few kilopascal. This relationship is opposite to reservoir-triggered seismicity and suggests that EPR fault activity may be triggered by plate flexure associated with the reduced pressure.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Increased Flooding Risk - Accelerating Threat and Stakeholder Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.

2012-12-01

Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their projects, and "…subsidence …. is not well-documented". Studies sponsored by the City of Norfolk for example suggest massive tidal barriers. Flood insurance - Flood insurance is available only from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), not from private insurers. NFIP has a current deficit of about 18B, which is estimated to increase by about 2B annually. The rates are subsidized and do not reflect the true risk of coastal flooding and do not incorporate the likelihood of future sea-level rise. In effect, the subsidy promotes increased building on the coast, leading to increased deficits in the tax-payer financed program. Risk-based flood insurance pricing would lead to less coastal development, therefore decreasing the tax base of the community. Stakeholder needs - Planning for increased flooding due to sea level rise extends 50 to 100 years given the lifetime of infrastructure. Planners need guidance and error estimates. To make adequate predictions for users we must understand the various components of sea level rise including subsidence, global sea level rise and regional and local dynamic sea level rise. Predictions of regional sea level rise will be presented in the context of existing infrastructure such as NASA research facilities and the city of Norfolk, Virginia.

Effect of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida.

PubMed

Langevin, Christian D; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

How will coastal sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.; Grinsted, A.

2010-12-01

Sea level rise is perhaps the most damaging repercussion of global warming, as 150 million people live less than one meter above current high tides .Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in coastal sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12 -20 years.

Coralgal reef morphology records punctuated sea-level rise during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Khanna, Pankaj; Droxler, André W; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A; Tunnell, John W; Shirley, Thomas C

2017-10-19

Coralgal reefs preserve the signatures of sea-level fluctuations over Earth's history, in particular since the Last Glacial Maximum 20,000 years ago, and are used in this study to indicate that punctuated sea-level rise events are more common than previously observed during the last deglaciation. Recognizing the nature of past sea-level rises (i.e., gradual or stepwise) during deglaciation is critical for informing models that predict future vertical behavior of global oceans. Here we present high-resolution bathymetric and seismic sonar data sets of 10 morphologically similar drowned reefs that grew during the last deglaciation and spread 120 km apart along the south Texas shelf edge. Herein, six commonly observed terrace levels are interpreted to be generated by several punctuated sea-level rise events forcing the reefs to shrink and backstep through time. These systematic and common terraces are interpreted to record punctuated sea-level rise events over timescales of decades to centuries during the last deglaciation, previously recognized only during the late Holocene.

Effective field model of roughness in magnetic nano-structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lepadatu, Serban, E-mail: SLepadatu@uclan.ac.uk

2015-12-28

An effective field model is introduced here within the micromagnetics formulation, to study roughness in magnetic structures, by considering sub-exchange length roughness levels as a perturbation on a smooth structure. This allows the roughness contribution to be separated, which is found to give rise to an effective configurational anisotropy for both edge and surface roughness, and accurately model its effects with fine control over the roughness depth without the explicit need to refine the computational cell size to accommodate the roughness profile. The model is validated by comparisons with directly roughened structures for a series of magnetization switching and domainmore » wall velocity simulations and found to be in excellent agreement for roughness levels up to the exchange length. The model is further applied to vortex domain wall velocity simulations with surface roughness, which is shown to significantly modify domain wall movement and result in dynamic pinning and stochastic creep effects.« less

Improvement of TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason-1 Geophysical Data Record for Global Change Studies and Coastal Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shum, C. K.

1999-01-01

The Earth's modem climate change has been characterized by interlinked changes in temperature, CO2, ice sheets and sea level. Global sea level change is a critical indicator for study of contemporary climate change. Sea level rise appears to have accelerated since the ice sheet retreats have stopped some 5000 years ago and it is estimated that the sea level rise has been approx. 15 cm over the last century. Contemporary radar altimeters represent the only technique capable of monitoring global sea level change with accuracy approaching 1 mm/yr and with a temporal scale of days and a spatial scale of 100 km or longer. This report highlights the major accomplishments of the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) Extended Mission and Jason-1 science investigation. The primary objectives of the investigation include the calibration and improvement of T/P and Jason-1 altimeter data for global sea level change and coastal tide and circulation studies. The scientific objectives of the investigation include: (1) the calibration and improvement of T/P and Jason-1 data as a reference measurement system for the accurate cross-linking with other altimeter systems (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1, ERS-2, GFO-1, and Envisat), (2) the improved determination and the associated uncertainties of the long-term (15-year) global mean sea level change using multiple altimeters, (3) the characterization of the sea level change by analyses of independent data, including tide gauges, sea surface temperature, and (4) the improvement coastal radar altimetry for studies including coastal ocean tide modeling and coastal circulation. Major accomplishments of the investigation include the development of techniques for low-cost radar altimeter absolute calibration (including the associated GPS-buoy technology), coastal ocean tide modeling, and the linking of multiple altimeter systems and the resulting determination of the 15-year (1985-1999) global mean sea level variations. The current rate of 15-year sea level rise observed by multiple satellite altimetry is +2.3 +/- 1.2 mm/yr, which is in general agreement with the analysis of sparsely distributed tide gauge measurements for the same data span, and represents the first such determination of sea level change in its kind.

Localization of angiotensin-II type 1(AT1) receptors on buffalo spermatozoa: AT1 receptor activation during capacitation triggers rise in cyclic AMP and calcium.

PubMed

Vedantam, Sivaram; Rani, Rita; Garg, Monica; Atreja, Suresh K

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the role of Ang-II in buffalo spermatozoa; localize angiotensin type 1 (AT1) receptors on the sperm surface and understand the signaling mechanisms involved therein. Immunoblotting and immunocytochemistry using polyclonal Rabbit anti-AT1 (N-10) IgG were performed to confirm the presence of AT1 receptors. Intracellular levels of cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) were determined by non-radioactive enzyme immunoassay, while that of Calcium [Ca(2+)] were estimated by fluorimetry using Fura2AM dye. The results obtained showed that AT1 receptors were found on the post-acrosomal region, neck and tail regions. Immunoblotting revealed a single protein band with molecular weight of 40 kDa. Ang-II treated cells produced significantly higher level of cAMP compared to untreated cells (22.66 ± 2.4 vs. 10.8 ± 0.98 pmol/10(8) cells, p < 0.01). The mean levels of Ca(2+) were also higher in Ang-II treated cells compared to control (117.4 ± 6.1 vs. 61.15 ± 4.2 nmol/10(8) cells; p < 0.01). The stimulatory effect of Ang-II in both the cases was significantly inhibited in the presence of Losartan (AT1 antagonist; p < 0.05) indicating the involvement of AT1 receptors. Further, presence of neomycin (protein kinase C inhibitor) inhibited significantly the Ang-II mediated rise in Ca(2+) indicating the involvement of PKC pathway. These findings confirm the presence of AT1 receptors in buffalo spermatozoa and that Ang-II mediates its actions via the activation of these receptors. Ang-II stimulates the rise in intracellular levels of cAMP and Ca(2+) during capacitation.

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

2018-04-01

Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

Evolution of genomic diversity and sex at extreme environments: Fungal life under hypersaline Dead Sea stress

PubMed Central

Kis-Papo, Tamar; Kirzhner, Valery; Wasser, Solomon P.; Nevo, Eviatar

2003-01-01

We have found that genomic diversity is generally positively correlated with abiotic and biotic stress levels (1–3). However, beyond a high-threshold level of stress, the diversity declines to a few adapted genotypes. The Dead Sea is the harshest planetary hypersaline environment (340 g·liter–1 total dissolved salts, ≈10 times sea water). Hence, the Dead Sea is an excellent natural laboratory for testing the “rise and fall” pattern of genetic diversity with stress proposed in this article. Here, we examined genomic diversity of the ascomycete fungus Aspergillus versicolor from saline, nonsaline, and hypersaline Dead Sea environments. We screened the coding and noncoding genomes of A. versicolor isolates by using >600 AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) markers (equal to loci). Genomic diversity was positively correlated with stress, culminating in the Dead Sea surface but dropped drastically in 50- to 280-m-deep seawater. The genomic diversity pattern paralleled the pattern of sexual reproduction of fungal species across the same southward gradient of increasing stress in Israel. This parallel may suggest that diversity and sex are intertwined intimately according to the rise and fall pattern and adaptively selected by natural selection in fungal genome evolution. Future large-scale verification in micromycetes will define further the trajectories of diversity and sex in the rise and fall pattern. PMID:14645702

Ice-dammed lake drainage evolution at Russell Glacier, west Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Tweed, Fiona S.; Ng, Felix; Quincey, Duncan J.; Mallalieu, Joseph; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Andreas B.; Palmer, Steven J.; Yde, Jacob C.; Homer, Rachel; Russell, Andrew J.; Hubbard, Alun

2017-11-01

Glaciological and hydraulic factors that control the timing and mechanisms of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) remain poorly understood. This study used measurements of lake level at fifteen minute intervals and known lake bathymetry to calculate lake outflow during two GLOF events from the northern margin of Russell Glacier, west Greenland. We used measured ice surface elevation, interpolated subglacial topography and likely conduit geometry to inform a melt enlargement model of the outburst evolution. The model was tuned to best-fit the hydrograph’s rising limb and timing of peak discharge in both events; it achieved Mean Absolute Errors of < 5 %. About one third of the way through the rising limb, conduit melt enlargement became the dominant drainage mechanism. Lake water temperature, which strongly governed the enlargement rate, preconditioned the high peak discharge and short duration of these floods. We hypothesize that both GLOFs were triggered by ice dam flotation, and localised hydraulic jacking sustained most of their early-stage outflow, explaining the particularly rapid water egress in comparison to that recorded at other ice-marginal lakes. As ice overburden pressure relative to lake water hydraulic head diminished, flow became confined to a subglacial conduit. This study has emphasised the inter-play between ice dam thickness and lake level, drainage timing, lake water temperature and consequently rising stage lake outflow and flood evolution.

75 FR 28643 - Pine Island, Matlacha Pass, Island Bay, and Caloosahatchee National Wildlife Refuges, Lee and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-21

... would work with the partners to establish benchmarks to record sea level rise and beach profiles and... partners to establish benchmarks to record sea level rise and beach profiles and shoreline changes, which... establish benchmarks to record sea level rise and beach profiles and shoreline changes, which could...

Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, M.; Temmerman, S.

2009-01-01

We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium-SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6-14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3-4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated. The impact of the simulated surface warming on the ice flow and ice dynamics is explored.

Cyclic spattering, seismic tremor, and surface fluctuation within a perched lava channel, Kīlauea Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrick, Matthew R.; Orr, Tim; Wilson, David; Dow, David; Freeman, Richard

2011-08-01

In late 2007, a perched lava channel, built up to 45 m above the preexisting surface, developed during the ongoing eruption near Pu`u `Ō`ō cone on Kīlauea Volcano's east rift zone. The lava channel was segmented into four pools extending over a total of 1.4 km. From late October to mid-December, a cyclic behavior, consisting of steady lava level rise terminated by vigorous spattering and an abrupt drop in lava level, was commonly observed in pool 1. We use geologic observations, video, time-lapse camera images, and seismicity to characterize and understand this cyclic behavior. Spattering episodes occurred at intervals of 40-100 min during peak activity and involved small (5-10-m-high) fountains limited to the margins of the pool. Most spattering episodes had fountains which migrated downchannel. Each spattering episode was associated with a rapid lava level drop of about 1 m, which was concurrent with a conspicuous cigar-shaped tremor burst with peak frequencies of 4-5 Hz. We interpret this cyclic behavior to be gas pistoning, and this is the first documented instance of gas pistoning in lava well away from the deeper conduit. Our observations and data indicate that the gas pistoning was driven by gas accumulation beneath the visco-elastic component of the surface crust, contrary to other studies which attribute similar behavior to the periodic rise of gas slugs. The gas piston events typically had a gas mass of about 2,500 kg (similar to the explosions at Stromboli), with gas accumulation and release rates of about 1.1 and 5.7 kg s-1, respectively. The time-averaged gas output rate of the gas pistoning events accounted for about 1-2% of the total gas output rate of the east rift zone eruption.

Cyclic spattering, seismic tremor, and surface fluctuation within a perched lava channel, Kīlauea Volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patrick, M.R.; Orr, T.; Wilson, D.; Dow, D.; Freeman, R.

2011-01-01

In late 2007, a perched lava channel, built up to 45 m above the preexisting surface, developed during the ongoing eruption near Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō cone on Kīlauea Volcano’s east rift zone. The lava channel was segmented into four pools extending over a total of 1.4 km. From late October to mid-December, a cyclic behavior, consisting of steady lava level rise terminated by vigorous spattering and an abrupt drop in lava level, was commonly observed in pool 1. We use geologic observations, video, time-lapse camera images, and seismicity to characterize and understand this cyclic behavior. Spattering episodes occurred at intervals of 40–100 min during peak activity and involved small (5–10-m-high) fountains limited to the margins of the pool. Most spattering episodes had fountains which migrated downchannel. Each spattering episode was associated with a rapid lava level drop of about 1 m, which was concurrent with a conspicuous cigar-shaped tremor burst with peak frequencies of 4–5 Hz. We interpret this cyclic behavior to be gas pistoning, and this is the first documented instance of gas pistoning in lava well away from the deeper conduit. Our observations and data indicate that the gas pistoning was driven by gas accumulation beneath the visco-elastic component of the surface crust, contrary to other studies which attribute similar behavior to the periodic rise of gas slugs. The gas piston events typically had a gas mass of about 2,500 kg (similar to the explosions at Stromboli), with gas accumulation and release rates of about 1.1 and 5.7 kg s−1, respectively. The time-averaged gas output rate of the gas pistoning events accounted for about 1–2% of the total gas output rate of the east rift zone eruption.

Consideration of vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise assessments: Mobile Bay, Alabama case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.

2013-01-01

The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.

Polybrominated, polychlorinated and monobromo-polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in marine surface sediments from Hong Kong and Korea.

PubMed

Terauchi, Hidenori; Takahashi, Shin; Lam, Paul K S; Min, Byung-Yoon; Tanabe, Shinsuke

2009-03-01

In this study we investigated occurrences and distribution patterns of dioxin-related compounds (DRCs) such as polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans (PBDD/Fs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), monobromo-polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans (MoBPCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DL-PCBs) in marine surface sediments collected from the coastal waters of Hong Kong and Korea. In most sampling sites, concentrations of PCDDs were the highest, followed by DL-PCBs, PCDFs, PBDFs, PBDDs, MoBPCDDs and MoBPCDFs in this order. Levels of PBDD/Fs were generally 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than chlorinated analogues. Levels of PCDDs are higher than PCDFs in Hong Kong while levels of PBDFs are higher than PBDDs in Korea (p<0.05). Report of PBDD/Fs and MoBPCDD/Fs in sediments from East Asian countries is novel and original. Environmental levels of PBDD/Fs are supposed to start increasing in accordance with rising production, use and disposal of brominated flame retardants (BFRs) and recycling processes of e-waste in Asian developing countries.

Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

2011-01-01

Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

Temporal variations in the gene expression levels of cyanobacterial anti-oxidant enzymes through geological history: implications for biological evolution during the Great Oxidation Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harada, M.; Furukawa, R.; Yokobori, S. I.; Tajika, E.; Yamagishi, A.

2016-12-01

A significant rise in atmospheric O2 levels during the GOE (Great Oxidation Event), ca. 2.45-2.0 Ga, must have caused a great stress to biosphere, enforcing life to adapt to oxic conditions. Cyanobacteria, oxygenic photosynthetic bacteria that had been responsible for the GOE, are at the same time one of the organisms that would have been greatly affected by the rise of O2 level in the surface environments. Knowledge on the evolution of cyanobacteria is not only important to elucidate the cause of the GOE, but also helps us to better understand the adaptive evolution of life in response to the GOE. Here we performed phylogenetic analysis of an anti-oxidant enzyme Fe-SOD (iron superoxide dismutase) of cyanobacteria, to assess the adaptive evolution of life under the GOE. The rise of O2 level must have increased the level of toxic reactive oxygen species in cyanobacterial cells, thus forced them to change activities or the gene expression levels of Fe-SOD. In the present study, we focus on the change in the gene expression levels of the enzyme, which can be estimated from the promoter sequences of the gene. Promoters are DNA sequences found upstream of protein encoding regions, where RNA polymerase binds and initiates transcription. "Strong" promoters that efficiently interact with RNA polymerase induce high rates of transcription, leading to high levels of gene expression. Thus, from the temporal changes in the promoter sequences, we can estimate the variations in the gene expression levels during the geological time. Promoter sequences of Fe-SOD at each ancestral node of cyanobacteria were predicted from phylogenetic analysis, and the ancestral promoter sequences were compared to the promoters of known highly expressed genes. The similarity was low at the time of the emergence of cyanobacteria; however, increased at the branching nodes diverged 2.4 billon years ago. This roughly coincided with the onset of the GOE, implying that the transition from low to high gene expression levels of Fe-SOD occurred in response to the GOE. We propose that this is the first direct evidence of the evolution of cyanobacteria related to the rise of O2, and that the methodologies of ancestral promoter analysis used in this study can be a novel tools to reveal the biological adaptation to such a significant geologic event.

Topography and flooding of coastal ecosystems on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: Implications for sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorgenson, Torre; Ely, Craig R.

2001-01-01

We measured surface elevations, stage of annual peak flooding, and sedimentation along 10 toposequences across coastal ecosystems on the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta in western Alaska during 1994-1998 to assess some of the physical processes affecting ecosystem distribution. An ecotype was assigned to each of 566 points, and differences in elevations among 24 ecotypes were analyzed within individual toposequences and across the 40 x 40-km study area. Elevations of vegetated ecotypes along the longest toposequence rose only ~1 m over a distance of 7.5 km, and mean elevations of most ecotype across the study area were within 0.5 m of mean higher-high water (1.47 m). During 1994 to 1998, monitoring of annual peak stage using crest gauges revealed flooding from the highest fall storm surge reached 2.58 m (1.11 m above mean higher-high tide). In each year, only the highest surface was unaffected by flooding. Mean annual sedimentation rates for the various ecotypes were 8.0 ram/y on tidal flats, 1.4 to 3.8 mm/y on the active floodplain, 0.1-0.2 mm/y on the inactive floodplain, and 0 mm/ on the abandoned floodplain. If sea levels in the Bering Sea rise ~0.5 m by 2100, as predicted by some on a global basis, large portions of the coastal margin of the delta could be regularly inundated by water during high tides, and even the highest ecotypes could be affected by storm surges. Predicting the extent of future inundation is difficult, however, because of the changes in the ground-surface elevation through sedimentation, organic matter accumulation, and permafrost development.

Strain induced novel quantum magnetotransport properties of topological insulators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Ning, E-mail: maning@stu.xjtu.edu.cn; Department of Applied Physics, MOE Key Laboratory for Nonequilibrium Synthesis and Modulation of Condensed Matter, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049; Zhang, Shengli, E-mail: zhangsl@mail.xjtu.edu.cn

Recent theoretical and experimental researches have revealed that the strained bulk HgTe can be regarded as a three-dimensional topological insulator (TI). Motivated by this, we explore the strain effects on the transport properties of the HgTe surface states, which are modulated by a weak 1D in-plane electrostatic periodic potential in the presence of a perpendicular magnetic field. We analytically derive the zero frequency (dc) diffusion conductivity for the case of quasielastic scattering in the Kubo formalism, and find that, in strong magnetic field regime, the Shubnikov–de Haas oscillations are superimposed on top of the Weiss oscillations due to the electricmore » modulation for null and finite strain. Furthermore, the strain is shown to remove the degeneracy in inversion symmetric Dirac cones on the top and bottom surfaces. This accordingly gives rise to the splitting and mixture of Landau levels, and the asymmetric spectrum of the dc conductivity. These phenomena, not known in a conventional 2D electron gas and even in a strainless TI and graphene, are a consequence of the anomalous spectrum of surface states in a fully stained TI. These results should be valuable for electronic and spintronic applications of TIs, and thus we fully expect to see them in the further experiment. - Highlights: • The strain removes the degeneracy in inversion symmetric Dirac cones. • The strain gives rise to the splitting and mixture of the Landau levels. • The strain leads to the asymmetric spectrum of the dc conductivity. • Shubnikov de Haas oscillations are shown to be superimposed on Weiss oscillations. • Interplay between strain and electric field causes different occupancy of TI states.« less

A comparison of thermocouple and infrared thermographic analysis of temperature rise on the root surface during the continuous wave of condensation technique.

PubMed

Mc Cullagh, J J; Setchell, D J; Gulabivala, K; Hussey, D L; Biagioni, P; Lamey, P J; Bailey, G

2000-07-01

This study was designed to use two methods of temperature measurement to analyse and quantify the in vitro root surface temperature changes during the initial stage of the continuous wave technique of obturation of 17 single-rooted premolar teeth with standard canal preparations. A model was designed to allow simultaneous temperature measurement with both thermocouples and an infrared thermal imaging system. Two thermocouples were placed on the root surface, one coronally and the other near the root apex. A series of thermal images were recorded by an infrared thermal imaging camera during the downpack procedure. The mean temperature rises on the root surface, as measured by the two thermocouples, averaged 13.9 degrees C over the period of study, whilst the infrared thermal imaging system measured an average rise of 28.4 degrees C at the same sites. Temperatures at the more apical point were higher than those measured coronally. After the first wave of condensation, the second activation of the plugger in the canal prior to its removal always resulted in a secondary rise in temperature. The thermal imaging system detected areas of greater temperature change distant from the two selected thermocouple sites. The continuous wave technique of obturation may result in high temperatures on the external root surface. Infrared thermography is a useful device for mapping patterns of temperature change over a large area.

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

46 CFR 164.008-4 - Test requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... thermocouples on the unexposed surface described in § 164.008-3(f)(2) will not rise more than 139 °C. (250 °F..., rise more than 225 °C. (405 °F.) above the initial temperature at the end of 15 minutes. When failure is due to excessive temperature rise on the joint, consideration will be given to alternate joint...

46 CFR 164.008-4 - Test requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... thermocouples on the unexposed surface described in § 164.008-3(f)(2) will not rise more than 139 °C. (250 °F..., rise more than 225 °C. (405 °F.) above the initial temperature at the end of 15 minutes. When failure is due to excessive temperature rise on the joint, consideration will be given to alternate joint...

A Mostly Quiet Pacific

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-11-18

Some climate forecast models indicate there is an above average chance that there could be a weak to borderline El Niño by the end of November 2003. However, the trade winds, blowing from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, remain strong. Thus, there remains some uncertainty among climate scientists as to whether the warm temperature anomaly will form again this year. The latest remote sensing data from NASA's Jason satellite show near normal conditions across the equatorial Pacific. There are currently no visible signs in sea surface height of an impending El Niño. This equatorial quiet contrasts with the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and U.S. West Coast where lower-than-normal sea surface levels and cool ocean temperatures continue (indicated by blue and purple areas). The image above is a global map of sea surface height, accurate to within 30 millimeters. The image represents data collected and composited over a 10-day period, ending on Nov. 3, 2003. The height of the water relates to the temperature of the water. As the ocean warms, its level rises; and as it cools, its level falls. Yellow and red areas indicate where the waters are relatively warmer and have expanded above sea level, green indicates near normal sea level, and blue and purple areas show where the waters are relatively colder and the surface is lower than sea level. The blue areas are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal, whereas the purple areas range from 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA04878

Ice dynamics of the Allan Hills meteorite concentration sites revealed by satellite aperture radar interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coren, F.; Delisle, G.; Sterzai, P.

2003-09-01

The ice flow conditions of a 100 x 100 km area of Victoria Land, Antarctica were analyzed with the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technique. The area includes a number of meteorite concentration sites, in particular the Allan Hills ice fields. Regional ice flow velocities around the Mid- western and Near-western ice fields and the Allan Hills main ice field are shown to be 2.5 m yr-1. These sites are located on a horseshoe-shaped area that bounds an area characterized by higher ice flow velocities of up to 5 m yr-1. Meteorite find locations on the Elephant Moraine are located in this "high ice flow" area. The SAR derived digital elevation model (DEM) shows atypical low surface slopes for Antarctic conditions, which are the cause for the slow ice movements. Numerous ice rises in the area are interpreted to cap sub-ice obstacles, which were formed by tectonic processes in the past. The ice rises are considered to represent temporary features, which develop only during warm stages when the regional ice stand is lowered. Ice depressions, which develop in warm stages on the lee side of ice rises, may act as the sites of temporary build-up of meteorite concentrations, which turn inoperative during cold stages when the regional ice level rises and the ice rises disappear. Based on a simplified ice flow model, we argue that the regional ice flow in cold stages is reduced by a factor of at least 3.

Role of Off-Line-of-Sight Propagation in Geomagnetic EMP Formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kruger, Hans W.

The author’s synchrotron radiation based 3D geomagnetic EMP code MACSYNC has been used to explore the impact on pulse rise time and air conductivity of EMP propagation paths to the observer that are located off the direct line-of-sight (LOS) between gamma source and observer. This geometry is always present because, for an isotropic source, most the gammas are emitted at an angle with respect to the LOS. Computations for a 1 kt near-surface burst observed from space yield two principal findings: 1. The rise time is generated by the combined actions of a) electron spreading along the LOS due tomore » the Compton electron emission angular distribution folded with electron multiple scattering effects, and b) radiation arrival time spreading due to length differences for different off-LOS propagation paths. The pulse rise time does not depend on the rise time of the conductivity. The conductivity rise time determines the pulse amplitude. 2. One-dimensional legacy EMP codes are inherently incapable of producing the correct pulse shape because they cannot treat the dependence of the conductivity on two dimensions, i.e. the radius from the source and the angle of the propagation path with the LOS. This divergence from one-dimensionality begins at a small fraction of a nanosecond for a sea-level burst. This effect will also be present in high-altitude bursts, however, determination of its onset time and magnitude requires high-altitude computations which have not yet been done.« less

Continuous Gravity and Tilt Reveal Anomalous Pressure and Density Changes Associated With Gas Pistoning Within the Summit Lava Lake of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poland, Michael P.; Carbone, Daniele

2018-03-01

Gas piston events within the summit eruptive vent of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai`i, are characterized by increases in lava level and by decreases in seismic energy release, spattering, and degassing. During 2010-2011, gas piston events were especially well manifested, with lava level rises of tens of meters over the course of several hours, followed by a sudden drop to preevent levels. The changes in lava level were accompanied by directly proportional changes in gravity, but ground deformation determined from tilt was anticorrelative. The small magnitude of the gravity changes, compared to the large changes in volume within the vent during gas pistons, suggests that pistoning involves the accumulation of a very low-density (100-200 kg/m3) foam at the top of the lava column. Co-event ground tilt indicates that rise in lava level is paradoxically associated with deflation (the opposite is usually true), which can be modeled as an increase in the gas content of the magma column between the source reservoir and the surface. Gas pistoning behavior is therefore associated with not only accumulation of a shallow magmatic foam but also more bubbles within the feeder conduit, probably due to the overall decrease in gas emissions from the lava lake during piston events.

Continuous gravity and tilt reveal anomalous pressure and density changes associated with gas pistoning within the summit lava lake of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poland, Michael; Carbone, Daniele

2018-01-01

Gas piston events within the summit eruptive vent of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, are characterized by increases in lava level and by decreases in seismic energy release, spattering, and degassing. During 2010–2011, gas piston events were especially well manifested, with lava level rises of tens of meters over the course of several hours, followed by a sudden drop to preevent levels. The changes in lava level were accompanied by directly proportional changes in gravity, but ground deformation determined from tilt was anticorrelative. The small magnitude of the gravity changes, compared to the large changes in volume within the vent during gas pistons, suggests that pistoning involves the accumulation of a very low‐density (100–200 kg/m3) foam at the top of the lava column. Co‐event ground tilt indicates that rise in lava level is paradoxically associated with deflation (the opposite is usually true), which can be modeled as an increase in the gas content of the magma column between the source reservoir and the surface. Gas pistoning behavior is therefore associated with not only accumulation of a shallow magmatic foam but also more bubbles within the feeder conduit, probably due to the overall decrease in gas emissions from the lava lake during piston events.

Effects of elevated temperatures and rising sea level on Arctic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, Peter W.

1990-01-01

Ice is a major agent on the inner shelf, gouging the bottom, increasing hydraulic scour, transporting sediment, and influencing river flood patterns. Rapid coastal retreat is common and low barrier islands and beaches are constantly changing due to the influence of permafrost, ice-push, waves, and currents. Coastal processes are presently a balance between the influence of ice and the action of waves and currents. Quantitative values for processes are poorly known, however our qualitative understanding is nearly complete. Climatic warming and rising sea levels would decrease the temporal and aerial extent of coastal ice thereby expanding the role of waves and currents. As a result, shoreline retreat rates would increase, producing a transgressive erosional surface on the low coastal plain. With increased wave activity, beaches and barrier islands presently nourished by ice push processes would decay and disappear. Increased sediment supply from a deeply thawed, active layer would release more sediments to rivers and coasts. Additional research should be focused on permafrost and sea ice processes active during freeze up and breakup; the two seasons of most vigorous activity and change.

ISMIP6 - initMIP: Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Gregory, Jonathan; Lipscomb, William; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Edwards, Tamsin

2016-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. This intercomparison exercise (initMIP) aims at comparing, evaluating and improving the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experiments are conceived for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet and are designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The latter experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss first results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Diverse landscapes beneath Pine Island Glacier influence ice flow.

PubMed

Bingham, Robert G; Vaughan, David G; King, Edward C; Davies, Damon; Cornford, Stephen L; Smith, Andrew M; Arthern, Robert J; Brisbourne, Alex M; De Rydt, Jan; Graham, Alastair G C; Spagnolo, Matteo; Marsh, Oliver J; Shean, David E

2017-11-20

The retreating Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica, presently contributes ~5-10% of global sea-level rise. PIG's retreat rate has increased in recent decades with associated thinning migrating upstream into tributaries feeding the main glacier trunk. To project future change requires modelling that includes robust parameterisation of basal traction, the resistance to ice flow at the bed. However, most ice-sheet models estimate basal traction from satellite-derived surface velocity, without a priori knowledge of the key processes from which it is derived, namely friction at the ice-bed interface and form drag, and the resistance to ice flow that arises as ice deforms to negotiate bed topography. Here, we present high-resolution maps, acquired using ice-penetrating radar, of the bed topography across parts of PIG. Contrary to lower-resolution data currently used for ice-sheet models, these data show a contrasting topography across the ice-bed interface. We show that these diverse subglacial landscapes have an impact on ice flow, and present a challenge for modelling ice-sheet evolution and projecting global sea-level rise from ice-sheet loss.

Parental environment mediates impacts of increased carbon dioxide on a coral reef fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Gabrielle M.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Donelson, Jennifer M.; McCormick, Mark I.; Munday, Philip L.

2012-12-01

Carbon dioxide concentrations in the surface ocean are increasing owing to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Higher CO2 levels are predicted to affect essential physiological processes of many aquatic organisms, leading to widespread impacts on marine diversity and ecosystem function, especially when combined with the effects of global warming. Yet the ability for marine species to adjust to increasing CO2 levels over many generations is an unresolved issue. Here we show that ocean conditions projected for the end of the century (approximately 1,000μatm CO2 and a temperature rise of 1.5-3.0°C) cause an increase in metabolic rate and decreases in length, weight, condition and survival of juvenile fish. However, these effects are absent or reversed when parents also experience high CO2 concentrations. Our results show that non-genetic parental effects can dramatically alter the response of marine organisms to increasing CO2 and demonstrate that some species have more capacity to acclimate to ocean acidification than previously thought.

Earthquakes and sea level - Space and terrestrial metrology on a changing planet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bilham, R.

1991-02-01

A review is presented of the stability and scale of crustal deformation metrology which has particular relevance to monitoring deformation associated with sea level and earthquakes. Developments in space geodesy and crustal deformation metrology in the last two decades have the potential to acquire a homogeneous global data set for monitoring relative horizontal and vertical motions of the earth's surface to within several millimeters. New tools discussed for forecasting sea level rise and damaging earthquakes include: very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, the principles of GPS geodesy, and new sea level sensors. Space geodesy permits a unified global basismore » for future metrology of the earth, and the continued availability of the GPS is currently fundamental to this unification.« less

Nonlinear climatic sensitivity to greenhouse gases over past 4 glacial/interglacial cycles.

PubMed

Lo, Li; Chang, Sheng-Pu; Wei, Kuo-Yen; Lee, Shih-Yu; Ou, Tsong-Hua; Chen, Yi-Chi; Chuang, Chih-Kai; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Burr, George S; Chen, Min-Te; Tung, Ying-Hung; Tsai, Meng-Chieh; Hodell, David A; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2017-07-04

The paleoclimatic sensitivity to atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) has recently been suggested to be nonlinear, however a GHG threshold value associated with deglaciation remains uncertain. Here, we combine a new sea surface temperature record spanning the last 360,000 years from the southern Western Pacific Warm Pool with records from five previous studies in the equatorial Pacific to document the nonlinear relationship between climatic sensitivity and GHG levels over the past four glacial/interglacial cycles. The sensitivity of the responses to GHG concentrations rises dramatically by a factor of 2-4 at atmospheric CO 2 levels of >220 ppm. Our results suggest that the equatorial Pacific acts as a nonlinear amplifier that allows global climate to transition from deglacial to full interglacial conditions once atmospheric CO 2 levels reach threshold levels.

Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roeloffs, Evelyn A.

1998-01-01

Coseismic water level rises in the 30-m deep Bourdieu Valley (BV) well near Parkfield, California, have occurred in response to three local and five distant earthquakes. Coseismic changes in static strain cannot explain these water level rises because (1) the well is insensitive to strain at tidal periods; (2) for the distant earthquakes, the expected coseismic static strain is extremely small; and (3) the water level response is of the incorrect sign for the local earthquakes. These water level changes must therefore be caused by seismic waves, but unlike seismic water level oscillations, they are monotonic, persist for days or weeks, and seem to be caused by waves with periods of several seconds rather than long-period surface waves. Other investigators have reported a similar phenomenon in Japan. Certain wells consistently exhibit this type of coseismic water level change, which is always in the same direction, regardless of the earthquake's azimuth or focal mechanism, and approximately proportional to the inverse square of hypocentral distance. To date, the coseismic water level rises in the B V well have never exceeded the seasonal water level maximum, although their sizes are relatively well correlated with earthquake magnitude and distance. The frequency independence of the well's response to barometric pressure in the frequency band 0.1 to 0.7 cpd implies that the aquifer is fairly well confined. High aquifer compressibility, probably due to a gas phase in the pore space, is the most likely reason why the well does not respond to Earth tides. The phase and amplitude relationships between the seasonal water level and precipitation cycles constrain the horizontal hydraulic diffusivity to within a factor of 4.5, bounding hypothetical earthquake-induced changes in aquifer hydraulic properties. Moreover, changes of hydraulic conductivity and/or diffusivity throughout the aquifer would not be expected to change the water level in the same direction at every time of the year. The first 2.5 days of a typical coseismic water level rise could be caused by a small coseismic discharge decrease at a point several tens of meters from the well. Alternatively, the entire coseismic water level signal could represent diffusion of an abrupt coseismic pore pressure increase within several meters of the well, produced by a mechanism akin to that of liquefaction. The coseismic water level changes in the BV well resemble, and may share a mechanism with, coseismic water level, stream discharge, and groundwater temperature changes at other locations where preearthquake changes have also been reported. No preearthquake changes have been observed at the BV well site, however.

Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roeloffs, E.A.

1998-01-01

Coseismic water level rises in the 30-m deep Bourdieu Valley (BV) well near Parkfield, California, have occurred in response to three local and five distant earthquakes. Coseismic changes in static strain cannot explain these water level rises because (1) the well is insensitive to strain at tidal periods; (2) for the distant earthquakes, the expected coseismic static strain is extremely small; and (3) the water level response is of the incorrect sign for the local earthquakes. These water level changes must therefore be caused by seismic waves, but unlike seismic water level oscillations, they are monotonic, persist for days or weeks, and seem to be caused by waves with periods of several seconds rather than long-period surface waves. Other investigators have reported a similar phenomenon in Japan. Certain wells consistently exhibit this type of coseismic water level change, which is always in the same direction, regardless of the earthquake's azimuth or focal mechanism, and approximately proportional to the inverse square of hypocentral distance. To date, the coseismic water level rises in the BV well have never exceeded the seasonal water level maximum, although their sizes are relatively well correlated with earthquake magnitude and distance. The frequency independence of the well's response to barometric pressure in the frequency band 0.1 to 0.7 cpd implies that the aquifer is fairly well confined. High aquifer compressibility, probably due to a gas phase in the pore space, is the most likely reason why the well does not respond to Earth tides. The phase and amplitude relationships between the seasonal water level and precipitation cycles constrain the horizontal hydraulic diffusivity to within a factor of 4.5, bounding hypothetical earthquake-induced changes in aquifer hydraulic properties. Moreover, changes of hydraulic conductivity and/or diffusivity throughout the aquifer would not be expected to change the water level in the same direction at every time of the year. The first 2.5 days of a typical coseismic water level rise could be caused by a small coseismic discharge decrease at a point several tens of meters from the well. Alternatively, the entire coseismic water level signal could represent diffusion of an abrupt coseismic pore pressure increase within several meters of the well, produced by a mechanism akin to that of liquefaction. The coseismic water level changes in the BV well resemble, and may share a mechanism with, coseismic water level, stream discharge, and groundwater temperature changes at other locations where preearthquake changes have also been reported. No preearthquake changes have been observed at the BV well site, however.

A kinetic analysis of manual wheelchair propulsion during start-up on select indoor and outdoor surfaces.

PubMed

Koontz, Alicia M; Cooper, Rory A; Boninger, Michael L; Yang, Yusheng; Impink, Bradley G; van der Woude, Lucas H V

2005-01-01

The objective of this study was to conduct a kinetic analysis of manual wheelchair propulsion during start-up on select indoor and outdoor surfaces. Eleven manual wheelchairs were fitted with a SMART(Wheel) and their users were asked to push on a course consisting of high- and low-pile carpet, indoor tile, interlocking concrete pavers, smooth level concrete, grass, hardwood flooring, and a sidewalk with a 5-degree grade. Peak resultant force, wheel torque, mechanical effective force, and maximum resultant force rate of rise were analyzed during start-up for each surface and normalized relative to their steady-state values on the smooth level concrete. Additional variables included peak velocity, distance traveled, and number of strokes in the first 5 s of the trial. We compared biomechanical data between surfaces using repeated-measures mixed models and paired comparisons with a Bonferroni adjustment. Applied resultant force (p = 0.0154), wheel torque (p < 0.0001), and mechanical effective force (p = 0.0047) were significantly different between surfaces. The kinetic values for grass, interlocking pavers, and ramp ascent were typically higher compared with tile, wood, smooth level concrete, and high- and low-pile carpet. Users were found to travel shorter distances up the ramp and across grass (p < 0.0025) and had a higher stroke count on the ramp (p = 0.0124). While peak velocity was not statistically different, average velocity was slower for the ramp and grass, which indicates greater wheelchair/user deceleration between strokes. The differences noted between surfaces highlight the importance of evaluating wheelchair propulsion ability over a range of surfaces.

Atomization of Impinging Droplets on Superheated Superhydrophobic Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerson, Preston; Crockett, Julie; Maynes, Daniel

2017-11-01

Water droplets impinging smooth superheated surfaces may be characterized by dynamic vapor bubbles rising to the surface, popping, and causing a spray of tiny droplets to erupt from the droplet. This spray is called secondary atomization. Here, atomization is quantified experimentally for water droplets impinging superheated superhydrophobic surfaces. Smooth hydrophobic and superhydrophobic surfaces with varying rib and post microstructuring were explored. Each surface was placed on an aluminum heating block, and impingement events were captured with a high speed camera at 3000 fps. For consistency among tests, all events were normalized by the maximum atomization found over a range of temperatures on a smooth hydrophobic surface. An estimate of the level of atomization during an impingement event was created by quantifying the volume of fluid present in the atomization spray. Droplet diameter and Weber number were held constant, and atomization was found for a range of temperatures through the lifetime of the impinging droplet. The Leidenfrost temperature was also determined and defined to be the lowest temperature at which atomization ceases to occur. Both atomization and Leidenfrost temperature increase with decreasing pitch (distance between microstructures).

Records of past ice sheet fluctuations in interior East Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Xiaohan; Huang, Feixin; Kong, Ping; Fang, Aimin; Li, Xiaoli

2007-01-01

The results of a land-based multi-disciplinary study of the past ice surface elevation in the Grove Mountains of interior East Antarctica support a dynamic evolution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). Moraine boulders of sedimentary rocks and spore pollen assemblage imply a significant shrinkage of the EAIS, with its margin retreating south of the Grove Mountains (~450 km south of recent coast line) before the middle Pliocene. The exposure ages indicate that the ice sheet subsequently re-advanced, with the ice surface rising locally at least 450 m higher than today. It then went back down constantly from before 2.3 Ma to 1.6 Ma. The glacial topography and existence of soil show that the ice surface fluctuation continued since the early Quaternary, but with highest levels never exceeding ~100 m higher than today.

The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.

PubMed

Chan, A W; Hon, K L; Leung, T F; Ho, M H; Rosa Duque, J S; Lee, T H

2018-06-01

Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.

Using time lapse cameras to monitor shoreline changes due to sea level rise.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Shoreline habitats and infrastructure are currently being affected by sea level rise (SLR) and as : global temperatures continue to rise, will continue to get worse for millennia. Governments : and individuals decisions to adapt to SLR could ha...

Transport of horseshoe crab eggs by waves and swash on an estuarine beach: Implications for foraging shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordstrom, K.F.; Jackson, N.L.; Smith, D.R.; Weber, R.G.

2006-01-01

The abundance of horseshoe crab eggs in the swash zone and remaining on the beach after tide levels fall was evaluated to identify how numbers of eggs available to shorebirds differ with fluctuations in spawning numbers of horseshoe crabs, wave energies and beach elevation changes. Field data were gathered 1-6 June 2004 at Slaughter Beach on the west side of Delaware Bay, USA. Counts of spawning crabs and process data from a pressure transducer and an anemometer and wind vane were related to number of eggs, embryos and larvae taken at depth and on the surface of the foreshore and in the active swash zone using a streamer trap. Beach elevation changes and depths of sediment activation were used to determine the potential for buried eggs to be exhumed by waves and swash. Mean significant wave heights during high water levels ranged from 0.08 to 0.40 m. Spawning counts were low (50-140 females km-1) when wave heights were low; no spawning occurred when wave heights were high. Vegetative litter (wrack) on the beach provides local traps for eggs, making more eggs available for shorebirds. Accumulation of litter on days when wave energy is low increases the probability that eggs will remain on the surface. High wave energies transport more eggs in the swash, but these eggs are dispersed or buried, and fewer eggs remain on the beach. Peaks in the number of eggs in the swash uprush occur during tidal rise and around time of high tide. The number of eggs in transport decreases during falling tide. Many more eggs move in the active swash zone than are found on the beach after water level falls, increasing the efficiency of bird foraging in the swash. Greater numbers of eggs in the swash during rising tide than falling tide and fewer eggs at lower elevations on the beach, imply that foraging becomes less productive as the tide falls and may help account for the tendency of shorebirds to feed on rising tides rather than on falling or low tides on days when no spawning occurs. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of elevated CO2 and eutrophication on surface elevation gain in a European salt marsh.

PubMed

Reef, Ruth; Spencer, Tom; Mӧller, Iris; Lovelock, Catherine E; Christie, Elizabeth K; McIvor, Anna L; Evans, Ben R; Tempest, James A

2017-02-01

Salt marshes can play a vital role in mitigating the effects of global environmental change by dissipating incident storm wave energy and, through accretion, tracking increasing water depths consequent upon sea level rise. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and nutrient availability are two key variables that can affect the biological processes that contribute to marsh surface elevation gain. We measured the effects of CO 2 concentrations and nutrient availability on surface elevation change in intact mixed-species blocks of UK salt marsh using six open-top chambers receiving CO 2 -enriched (800 ppm) or ambient (400 ppm) air. We found more rapid surface elevation gain in elevated CO 2 conditions: an average increase of 3.4 mm over the growing season relative to ambient CO 2 . Boosted regression analysis to determine the relative influence of different parameters on elevation change identified that a 10% reduction in microbial activity in elevated CO 2 -grown blocks had a positive influence on elevation. The biomass of Puccinellia maritima also had a positive influence on elevation, while other salt marsh species (e.g. Suaeda maritima) had no influence or a negative impact on elevation. Reduced rates of water use by the vegetation in the high CO 2 treatment could be contributing to elevation gain, either directly through reduced soil shrinkage or indirectly by decreasing microbial respiration rates due to lower redox levels in the soil. Eutrophication did not influence elevation change in either CO 2 treatment despite doubling aboveground biomass. The role of belowground processes (transpiration, root growth and decomposition) in the vertical adjustment of European salt marshes, which are primarily minerogenic in composition, could increase as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations rise and should be considered in future wetland models for the region. Elevated CO 2 conditions could enhance resilience in vulnerable systems such as those with low mineral sediment supply or where migration upwards within the tidal frame is constrained. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Developing a Learning Progression for Sea Level Rise, a Major Impact of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, R. Christopher; Hestness, Emily

2016-01-01

We present research from an investigation on developing a learning progression (LP) for sea level rise (SLR), a major effect of global climate change. We began our research by drafting a hypothetical LP for sea level rise, informed by extant knowledge of the topic in the scientific community, in science education literature, and in science…

Coastal Impact Underestimated From Rapid Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John; Milliken, Kristy; Wallace, Davin; Rodriguez, Antonio; Simms, Alexander

2010-06-01

A primary effect of global warming is accelerated sea level rise, which will eventually drown low-lying coastal areas, including some of the world's most populated cities. Predictions from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that sea level may rise by as much as 0.6 meter by 2100 [Solomon et al., 2007]. However, uncertainty remains about how projected melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will contribute to sea level rise. Further, considerable variability is introduced to these calculations due to coastal subsidence, especially along the northern Gulf of Mexico (see http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml).

Integrating spatial data and shorebird nesting locations to predict the potential future impact of global warming on coastal habitats: A case study on Farasan Islands, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Alrashidi, Monif; Shobrak, Mohammed; Al-Eissa, Mohammed S; Székely, Tamás

2012-07-01

One of the expected effects of the global warming is changing coastal habitats by accelerating the rate of sea level rise. Coastal habitats support large number of marine and wetland species including shorebirds (plovers, sandpipers and allies). In this study, we investigate how coastal habitats may be impacted by sea level rise in the Farasan Islands, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We use Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus - a common coastal breeding shorebird - as an ecological model species to predict the influence of sea level rise. We found that any rise of sea level is likely to inundate 11% of Kentish plover nests. In addition, 5% of the coastal areas of Farasan Islands, which support 26% of Kentish plover nests, will be flooded, if sea level rises by one metre. Our results are constrained by the availability of data on both elevation and bird populations. Therefore, we recommend follow-up studies to model the impacts of sea level rise using different elevation scenarios, and the establishment of a monitoring programme for breeding shorebirds and seabirds in Farasan Islands to assess the impact of climate change on their populations.

Impact of sea-level rise on earthquake and landslide triggering offshore the Alentejo margin (SW Iberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, M. C.; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vázquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of <100 km from the coast. The results suggest that the occurrence of continental slope failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.

Interplay between Self-Assembled Structures and Energy Level Alignment of Benzenediamine on Au(111) Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guo; Neaton, Jeffrey

2015-03-01

Using van der Waals-corrected density functional theory (DFT) calculations, we study the adsorption of benzene-diamine (BDA) molecules on Au(111) surfaces. We find that at low surface coverage, the adsorbed molecules prefer to stay isolated from each other in a monomer phase, due to the inter-molecular dipole-dipole repulsions. However, when the coverage rises above a critical value of 0.9nm-2, the adsorbed molecules aggregate into linear structures via hydrogen bonding between amine groups, consistent with recent experiments [Haxton, Zhou, Tamblyn, et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 265701 (2013)]. Moreover, we find that these linear structures at high density considerably reduces the Au work function (relative to a monomer phase). Due to reduced surface polarization effects, we estimate that the resonance energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital of the adsorbed BDA molecule relative to the Au Fermi level is significantly lower than the monomer phase by more than 0.5 eV, consistent with the experimental measurements [DellAngela, Kladnik, and Cossaro, et al., Nano Lett. 10, 2470 (2010)]. This work supported by DOE (the JCAP under Award Number DE-SC000499 and the Molecular Foundry of LBNL), and computational resources provided by NERSC.

Observing the Vertical Dimensions of Singapore's Urban Heat Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, W. T. L.; Ho, D. X. Q.

2015-12-01

In numerous cities, measurements of urban warmth in most urban heat island (UHI) studies are generally constrained towards surface or near-surface (<2 m above ground) levels across horizontal variations in land use and land cover. However, there has been hitherto limited attention towards the measurement of vertical temperature profiles extending from the urban surface through to the urban boundary layer. Knowledge of these profiles, through how they vary over different local urban morphologies, and develop with respect to synoptic meteorological conditions, are important towards several aspects of UHI research; these include validating modelling urban canopy lapse rate profiles or estimating the growth of urban plumes. In this study, we utilised temperature sensors attached onto remote controlled aerial quadcopter platforms to measure urban temperature and humidity profiles in Singapore, which is a rapidly urbanizing major tropical metropolis. These profiles were measured from the surface to ~100 m above ground level, a height which includes all of the urban canopy and parts of the urban boundary layer. Initial results indicate significant variations in stability measured over different land uses (e.g. urban park, high-rise residential, commercial); these profiles are also temporally dynamic, depending on the time of day and larger-scale weather conditions.

Earth Surface Patterns in 200 Years (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, B.

2009-12-01

What kinds of patterns will characterize Earth's surface in 200 years? This question is addressed using a complex systems dynamical framework for distinct levels of description in a hierarchy, in which time scale and spatial extent increase and number of variables decrease with level, and in which levels are connected nonlinearly to each other via self-organization and slaving and linearly to the external environment. Self-organized patterns linking the present to 200 years in the future must be described dynamically on a level with a time scale of centuries. Human-landscape coupling will play a prominent role in the formation of these patterns as population peaks and interactions become nonlinear over these time scales. Three related examples illustrate this approach. First, the response of human-occupied coastlines to rising sea level. Coastlines in wealthy regions develop a spatially varying boom and bust pattern, with response amplified by structures meant to delay the effects of sea level rise. Coastlines in economically disadvantaged regions experience a subdued response, with populations developing a culture of displacement that minimizes human-landscape interactions in a context of scarce resources. Second, the evolution of nation-state borders with degrading ecosystems, declining resource availability and increasing transportation costs. The maintenance of strong borders as selective filtration systems (goods, capital and people) is based on a cost-benefit analysis in which the economic benefits accruing from long distance, globalized resource exploitation are weighed against policing and infrastructure costs. As costs rise above benefits, borders fragment, with a transition to local barriers and conflicts, and mobile peoples moving to resources. Third, trends in urbanization and development of megacities under economic and environmental stress. The pattern of rapid growth of megacities through inward migration, with displaced people occupying high-risk urban landscapes such as flood plains or steep slopes and existing on the margins of the formal economic system, switches to outmigration as precarious slum dwellers respond to human-induced natural disasters, crumbling infrastructure and economic decline. Inefficient foraging along outward migration pathways from the urban center drives positive feedbacks that propel a radiating pattern and eventually lead to dispersal. These anticipated patterns represent a fragmentation of economic and power concentrations and networks, and localization of the presently globalized coupled human-landscape system. Long-time-scale models illustrating the fragmentation process and prospects for model testing will be discussed. Supported by the Geomorphology and Land Use Dynamics Program of the US National Science Foundation.

Mid Holocene lake level and shoreline behavior during the Nipissing phase of the upper Great Lakes at Alpena, Michigan, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, T.A.; Lepper, K.; Endres, A.L.; Johnston, J.W.; Baedke, S.J.; Argyilan, E.P.; Booth, R.K.; Wilcox, D.A.

2011-01-01

The Nipissing phase was the last pre-modern high-water stage of the upper Great Lakes. Represented as either a one- or two-peak highstand, the Nipissing occurred following a long-term lake-level rise. This transgression was primarily an erosional event with only the final stage of the transgression preserved as barriers, spits, and strandplains of beach ridges. South of Alpena, Michigan, mid to late Holocene coastal deposits occur as a strandplain between Devils Lake and Lake Huron. The landward part of this strandplain is a higher elevation platform that formed during the final stage of lake-level rise to the Nipissing peak. The pre-Nipissing shoreline transgressed over Devils Lake lagoonal deposits from 6.4 to 6.1. ka. The first beach ridge formed ~ 6. ka, and then the shoreline advanced toward Lake Huron, producing beach ridges about every 70. years. This depositional regression produced a slightly thickening wedge of sediment during a lake-level rise that formed 20 beach ridges. The rise ended at 4.5. ka at the Nipissing peak. This peak was short-lived, as lake level fell > 4. m during the following 500. years. During this lake-level rise and subsequent fall, the shoreline underwent several forms of shoreline behavior, including erosional transgression, aggradation, depositional transgression, depositional regression, and forced regression. Other upper Great Lakes Nipissing platforms indicate that the lake-level change observed at Alpena of a rapid pre-Nipissing lake-level rise followed by a slower rise to the Nipissing peak, and a post-Nipissing rapid lake-level fall is representative of mid Holocene lake level in the upper Great Lakes. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Sea-level is observed and estimated to continue rising. In the future, the rise could be abrupt and irreversible in century to millennial timescale even if we conduct strong reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet are considered as attributable climate systems which would significantly enhance presently-projected sea-level rise by several meters if global mean temperature passes certain "Tipping points" which would exist around +1-5 degree Celsius above present temperature (1980-1999 average). Therefore, vulnerable coastal low-lying area, especially small islands, deltas or poor developing countries, would suffer from semi-permanent inundation and forced to counteract due to the enhanced sea-level rise. This study estimate range of sea-level rise until the year 2300 and 3000 considering excess of tipping points with using multiple levels of temperature scenarios which consist of excess tipping points and non-excess tipping points pathways. We extract state-of-the-art knowledge of tipping elements from paper reviewing to express reasonable relationship between temperature and abruptly-changing sea-level transition across the ages. This study also calculate coastal exposure globally as affected population, area and asset below the estimated sea-level for each countries with overlaying 30 arc-second gridded topography, population distribution and the sea-level. The result indicates which country would be critically affected if we follow overshooting pathways. Furthermore, this study visualize uncertain coastal exposure due to sea-level rise in the future from the multiple warming pathways. This estimation of possible future beyond tipping point would be useful information for decision-makers to establish new planning of defense, migration or mitigation for the future societies.

Continental Shelf Morphology and Stratigraphy Offshore San Onofre, CA: The Interplay Between Rates of Eustatic Change and Sediment Supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klotsko, Shannon; Driscoll, Neal W.; Kent, Graham; Brothers, Daniel

2016-01-01

New high-resolution CHIRP seismic data acquired offshore San Onofre, southern California reveal that shelf sediment distribution and thickness are primarily controlled by eustatic sea level rise and sediment supply. Throughout the majority of the study region, a prominent abrasion platform and associated shoreline cutoff are observed in the subsurface from ~ 72 to 53 m below present sea level. These erosional features appear to have formed between Melt Water Pulse 1A and Melt Water Pulse 1B, when the rate of sea-level rise was lower. There are three distinct sedimentary units mapped above a regional angular unconformity interpreted to be the Holocene transgressive surface in the seismic data. Unit I, the deepest unit, is interpreted as a lag deposit that infills a topographic low associated with an abrasion platform. Unit I thins seaward by downlap and pinches out landward against the shoreline cutoff. Unit II is a mid-shelf lag deposit formed from shallower eroded material and thins seaward by downlap and landward by onlap. The youngest, Unit III, is interpreted to represent modern sediment deposition. Faults in the study area do not appear to offset the transgressive surface. The Newport Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault system is active in other regions to the south (e.g., La Jolla) where it offsets the transgressive surface and creates seafloor relief. Several shoals observed along the transgressive surface could record minor deformation due to fault activity in the study area. Nevertheless, our preferred interpretation is that the shoals are regions more resistant to erosion during marine transgression. The Cristianitos fault zone also causes a shoaling of the transgressive surface. This may be from resistant antecedent topography due to an early phase of compression on the fault. The Cristianitos fault zone was previously defined as a down-to-the-north normal fault, but the folding and faulting architecture imaged in the CHIRP data are more consistent with a strike-slip fault with a down-to-the-northwest dip-slip component. A third area of shoaling is observed off of San Mateo and San Onofre creeks. This shoaling has a constructional component and could be a relict delta or beach structure. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J.; Price, René M.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Calafat, Francisco M.; Dangendorf, Sönke

2014-01-01

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records. PMID:24728012

Late Quaternary depositional history, Holocene sea-level changes, and vertical crustal movement, southern San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atwater, Brian F.; Hedel, Charles W.; Helley, Edward J.

1977-01-01

Sediments collected for bridge foundation studies at southern San Francisco Bay, Calif., record estuaries that formed during Sangamon (100,000 years ago) and post-Wisconsin (less than 10,000 years ago) high stands of sea level. The estuarine deposits of Sangamon and post-Wisconsin ages are separated by alluvial and eolian deposits and by erosional unconformities and surfaces of nondeposition, features that indicate lowered base levels and oceanward migrations of the shoreline accompanying low stands of the sea. Estuarine deposits of mid-Wisconsin age appear to be absent, suggesting that sea level was not near its present height 30,000–40,000 years ago in central California. Holocene sea-level changes are measured from the elevations and apparent 14C ages of plant remains from 13 core samples. Uncertainties of ±2 to ±4 m in the elevations of the dated sea levels represent the sum of errors in determination of (1) sample elevation relative to present sea level, (2) sample elevation relative to sea level at the time of accumulation of the dated material, and (3) postdepositional subsidence of the sample due to compaction of underlying sediments. Sea level in the vicinity of southern San Francisco Bay rose about 2 cm/yr from 9,500 to 8,000 years ago. The rate of relative sea-level rise then declined about tenfold from 8,000 to 6,000 years ago, and it has averaged 0.1–0.2 cm/yr from 6,000 years ago to the present. This submergence history indicates that the rising sea entered the Golden Gate 10,000–11,000 years ago and spread across land areas as rapidly as 30 m/yr until 8,000 years ago. Subsequent shoreline changes were more gradual because of the decrease in rate of sea-level rise. Some of the sediments under southern San Francisco Bay appear to be below the level at which they initially accumulated. The vertical crustal movement suggested by these sediments may be summarized as follows: (1) Some Quaternary(?) sediments have sustained at least 100 m of tectonic subsidence in less than 1.5 million years (<0.07 mm/yr) relative to the likely elevation of the lowest Pleistocene land surface; (2) the deepest Sangamon estuarine deposits subsided tectonically about 20–40 m in about 0.1 million years (0.2±0.1–0.4±0.1 mm/yr) relative to the assumed initial elevations of the thalwegs buried by these sediments; and (3) Holocene salt-marsh deposits have undergone about 5 m of tectonic and possibly isostatic subsidence in about 6,000 years (0.8±.0.7 mm/yr) relative to elevations which might be expected from eustatic sea-level changes alone.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

2010-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

2016-03-01

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6-9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Looking Back to the Future: Insight on Anthropocene beaches from Holocene and Pleistocene barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dougherty, A. J.; Choi, J. H.; Turney, C. S.; Dosseto, A.

2017-12-01

`Super' storms and accelerated rates of sea-level rise are forecast in the Anthropocene, but how coasts will respond (or even if they have started to be impacted) remain uncertain. The onset of this new anthropogenic age is considered mid-1900s when multiple indices including sea level exceed previous Holocene measurements. Centuries of sea surface elevation data, used to project an increase of up to 2m by 2100, show that the current rise started 200 years ago. Similar records of storms or shoreline evolution over these centennial time-scales do not exist. With empirical studies of coastal morphodynamics concentrated during decades of accelerated sea-level rise, present-day beaches can be considered Anthropocene features. To determine the future of vulnerable sandy shorelines, climate change scenarios of increased sea level and storm intensity have been combined with computer models integrating short-term process data with large-scale coastal evolution. The uncertainty in these models can be reduced with longer sea level and storm records as well as filling the gap between detailed beach profile/wave buoy data and generalized barrier stratigraphy. High-resolution chronostratigraphic models necessary to achieve this can be constructed using Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL). Combined GPR, OSL and LiDAR (GOaL) on prograded barriers enables analysis of shorelines back through time, by comparing behaviour since the onset of anthropogenic global warming to that in the preceding millennia. Extracting a record of coastal evolution prior to and since seas began to rise two centuries ago offers the opportunity to detect any difference indicating if/how shorelines have responded. In double barrier systems with composite Holocene and Pleistocene components GOaL can extend the Anthropocene record back to when seas were known to have been higher than today. To demonstrate the potential of GOaL, data collected over the past twenty years from North America and the South Pacific are presented; including some classic prograded barriers studied initially in the 1960s and extensively the 1980s. The resulting records of sea level, storms and sediment supply provide insight on, and input for modelling of, climate change and coastal evolution.

Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Melet, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ganachaud, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Singh, A.; Aucan, J.

2018-02-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988-2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.

The rising greenhouse effect: experiments and observations in and around the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philipona, R.

2010-09-01

The rapid temperature increase of more than 1°C in central Europe over the last three decades is larger than expected from anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Surface radiation flux measurements in and around the Alps in fact confirm that not only thermal longwave radiation but also solar shortwave radiation increased since the 1980s. Surface energy budget analyses reveal the rising surface temperature to be well correlated with the radiative forcing, and also show an increase of the kinetic energy fluxes explaining the rise of atmospheric water vapor. Solar radiation mainly increased due to a strong decline of anthropogenic aerosols since mid of the 1980s. While anthropogenic aerosols were mainly accumulated in the boundary layer, this reduction let solar radiation to recover (solar brightening after several decades of solar dimming) mainly at low altitudes around the Alps. At high elevations in the Alps, solar forcing is much smaller and the respective temperature rise is also found to be smaller than in the lowlands. The fact that temperature increases less in the Alps than at low elevations is unexpected in the concept of greenhouse warming, but the radiation budget analyses clearly shows that in the plains solar forcing due to declining aerosols additionally increased surface temperature, whereas in the Alps temperature increased primarily due to greenhouse warming that is particularly manifested by a strong water vapor feedback.

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900.

PubMed

Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Korsgaard, Niels J; Bjørk, Anders A; Khan, Shfaqat A; Box, Jason E; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K; Bamber, Jonathan L; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-12-17

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H.

2015-12-01

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

Contrasting Holocene sedimentary geologies of lower Daly River, northern Australia, and lower Sepik-Ramu, Papua New Guinea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, John

1993-03-01

The estuarine plain of the macrotidal Daly River, in monsoonal northern Australia, is underlain by extensive mid-Holocene mangrove swamp sediments which accumulated during the last stages of Post-glacial sea-level rise. Sediment yield from the catchment is too low to account for the volume which accumulated during sea-level rise, and onshore transport is invoked. This is supported by radiocarbon ages and facies analysis of the transgressive sediment tract beneath the maximum flooding surface (MFS), and of the tract of vertical sedimentation which extends from the MFS to the surface of estuarine/fluvial transition (the EFT). The EFT occurred about 5000 to 6000 BP throughout the estuarine plain. A contrasting situation exists in the lowland Holocene basin of the microtidal Sepik and Ramu rivers in Papua New Guinea, which derive sediment from highly tectonic catchments. A tectonic basin, which was a shallow brackish inland sea after Post-glacial transgression, is separated by a low divide from a deltaic plain. Progradation of the deltaic plain commenced about 3500 BP after regressive sedimentation eclipsed the inland sea in the tectonic basin. Contrasting organic facies, mangrove in the Daly and freshwater swamp deposits in the Sepik-Ramu, highlight differences between facies models of the two systems. Differences between fluvio-tidal regimes are reflected by the EFT, which is synchronous in the Daly and diachronous in the Sepik-Ramu, and possibly by the MFS which is diachronous in the Daly and may be synchronous in the Sepik-Ramu.

Insights into lateral marsh retreat mechanism through localized field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bendoni, M.; Mel, R.; Solari, L.; Lanzoni, S.; Francalanci, S.; Oumeraci, H.

2016-02-01

Deterioration of salt marshes may be due to several factors related to increased anthropic pressure, sea level rise, and erosive processes. While salt marshes can reach equilibrium in the vertical direction, adapting to sea level rise, they are inherently unstable in the horizontal direction. Marsh boundaries are characterized by scarps with bare sediment below the vegetated surface layer that can be easily removed by wave-induced erosion. In this work, we explore the different mechanisms involved in the erosion of marsh borders through the interpretation of field data. The analysis is based on a systematic field monitoring of a salt marsh in the Venice Lagoon subject to lateral erosion. Measurements included horizontal retreat of the scarp at various locations and wave height in front of the marsh during three storm surges. Continuous erosion and mass failures alternated during the observed period, leading to an average retreat up to 80 cm/yr. The data, collected roughly every month for 1.5 year, indicate that the linear relation that links the observed erosion rate to the impinging wave power exhibits a larger slope than that already estimated in literature on the basis of long-term surveys. Moreover, an increase in the gradient of erodibility is detected along the marsh scarp, due to the combined action of soil strengthening by vegetation on the marsh surface and the impact of wave breaking at the bank toe, which promote cantilever failures and increase the lateral erosion rate.

Tooth Whitening And Temperature Rise With Two Bleaching Activation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abu-ElMagd, D. M.; El-Sayad, I. I.; Abd El-Gawad, L. M.

2009-09-27

To measure the tooth whitening and the surface and Intrapulpal temperature increase in vitro on freshly extracted upper human central incisors after chemical, Zoom AP light and diode laser activated bleaching. Thirty caries-free upper human incisors were selected. Teeth were divided into three equal groups according to the methods of activation of the bleaching agent (n = 10). A whitening gel containing hydrogen peroxide was applied to the buccal surface of all teeth. Group I was bleached using chemically activated hydrogen peroxide gel, for three applications of 15 min each. Group II was bleached with high intensity advanced power Zoommore » activation light (Zoom AP), for three applications of 15 min each. Group III was bleached with diode laser activation technique, where the teeth were irradiated with 2 Watt diode laser for three applications of 30 sec each. The whitening degree was assessed using an image analysis system, while temperature rise was recorded using a thermocouple on the external tooth surface and Intrapulpal. The degree of whitening increased significantly in all groups. However, the percentage of whitening was not statistically significantly different between the three groups. In addition, group II showed statistically significant higher mean rise in both surface and pulp temperatures than group I and group III. Chemical bleaching produces the same whitening effect as Zoom AP light and laser, with no surface or pulpal temperature rise. Laser application is faster and produces less surface and pulp temperature increase than Zoom AP light. Diode laser used to activate bleaching gels is not considered dangerous to the vitality of dental pulp using power settings of 2 W.« less

10-Year Observations of Cloud and Surface Longwave Radiation at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, H.; Kim, S. W.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.; Shiobara, M.; Choi, T. J.; Son, S. W.; Kim, M. H.; Jeong, J. H.; Kim, S. J.

2015-12-01

Arctic clouds play a key role in surface radiation budget and may influence sea ice and snow melting. In this study, 10-year (2004-2013) observations of cloud from Micro-Pulse Lidar (MPL) and surface longwave (LW) radiation at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard are analyzed to investigate cloud radiative effect. The cloud fraction (CF) derived from MPL shows distinct monthly variation, having higher CF (0.90) in summer and lower CF (0.79) in winter. Downward longwave radiation (DLW) during wintertime (Nov., Dec., Jan., and Feb.) decreases as cloud base height (CBH) increases. The DLW for CBH < 1km (264.7±35.4 W m-2) is approximately 1.46 times larger than that for cloud-free (181.8±25.8 W m-2) conditions. The temperature difference (ΔT) and DLW difference (ΔDLW), which are calculated as the difference of monthly mean temperature and DLW between all-sky and cloud-free conditions, are positively correlated (R2 = 0.83). This implies that an increase of DLW may influence surface warming, which can result in snow and sea ice melting. However, dramatic changes in surface temperature, cloud and DLW are observed with a time scale of a few days. The averaged surface temperature on the presence of low-level clouds (CBH < 2km) and under cloud-free conditions are estimated to be -6.9±6.1°C and -14.5±5.7°C, respectively. The duration of low-level clouds, showing relatively high DLW and high surface temperature, is about 2.5 days. This suggests that DLW induced by low-level clouds may not have a critical effect on surface temperature rising and sea ice melting.

Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

PubMed

Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Modeling tidal marsh distribution with sea-level rise: evaluating the role of vegetation, sediment, and upland habitat in marsh resiliency.

PubMed

Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Morris, James T; Stralberg, Diana; Parker, V Thomas; Kelly, Maggi

2014-01-01

Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea-level rise. These results also emphasize the importance of adjacent uplands for long-term marsh survival and incorporating such areas in conservation planning efforts.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

Morphological response of the saltmarsh habitats of the Guadiana estuary due to flow regulation and sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2016-12-01

In the context of rapid sea-level rise in the 21st century, the reduction of fluvial sediment supply due to the regulation of river discharge represents a major challenge for the management of estuarine ecosystems. Therefore, the present study aims to assess the cumulative impacts of the reduction of river discharge and projected sea-level rise on the morphological evolution of the Guadiana estuary during the 21st century. The assessment was based on a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters and empirical knowledge of the system. As methods applied to estimate environmental flows do not take into consideration the fluvial discharge required to maintain saltmarsh habitats and the impact of sea-level rise, simulations were carried out for ten cases in terms of base river flow and sea-level rise so as to understand their sensitivity on the deepening of saltmarsh platforms. Results suggest saltmarsh habitats may not be affected severely in response to lower limit scenarios of sea-level rise and sedimentation. A similar behaviour can be expected even due to the upper limit scenarios until 2050, but with a significant submergence afterwards. In the case of the upper limit scenarios under scrutiny, there was a net erosion of sediment from the estuary. Multiplications of amplitudes of the base flow function by factors 1.5, 2, and 5 result in reduction of the estimated net eroded sediment volume by 25, 40, and 80%, respectively, with respect to the net eroded volume for observed river discharge. The results also indicate that defining the minimum environmental flow as a percentage of dry season flow (as done presently) should be updated to include the full spectrum of natural flows, incorporating temporal variability to better anticipate scenarios of sea-level rise during this century. As permanent submergence of intertidal habitats can be significant after 2050, due to the projected 79 cm rise of sea-level by the year 2100, a multi-dimensional approach should be adopted to mitigate the consequences of sea-level rise and strong flow regulations on the ecosystem of the Guadiana Estuary.

Thermotransduction and heat stress in dental structures during orthodontic debonding : Effectiveness of various cooling strategies.

PubMed

Kley, Philipp; Frentzen, Matthias; Küpper, Katharina; Braun, Andreas; Kecsmar, Susann; Jäger, Andreas; Wolf, Michael

2016-05-01

Recent studies have indicated possible thermal damage to pulpal tissue during orthodontic debonding. This study aimed to analyze the thermal loads acting upon dental structures and their transfer to the pulp during orthodontic debonding. Specific goals were to analyze temperature changes in local dental tissues, thermotransduction to the pulp cavity, and the effectiveness of common cooling strategies and of simulated intrapulpal circulation. Metal brackets were bonded to five extracted human molars and subsequently removed. While a carbide bur was applied to debond the residual composite from the tooth surface, various cooling strategies (no/air/water cooling) were employed with or without simulated intrapulpal circulation, accompanied by temperature measurements with a thermographic infrared camera on the enamel surface and with measuring probes in the pulp cavity. Appropriate evaluation software was used to calculate the enamel-to-pulp temperature gradients and for statistical analysis. Significant differences in temperature rise and heat development over time, both on the enamel surfaces and in the pulp cavities were found. The mean temperature rises associated with no/air/water cooling were 90.7/46.6/9.2 °C on the enamel surface versus 9/8/4.6 °C inside the pulp. However, thermotransduction from enamel to pulp remained below 10 % of the surface measurements in all groups. Simulated intrapulpal microcirculation was found to significantly reduce intrapulpal temperature levels. During debonding of residual bracket adhesives, provided that a carbide bur is properly used, our data indicate a low risk of reaching critical intrapulpal temperatures even in the absence of dedicated cooling and no risk if the instrumentation is accompanied by air or water cooling.

Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glick, Patty; Clough, Jonathan; Polaczyk, Amy; Couvillion, Brady R.; Nunley, Brad

2013-01-01

Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

IMPERVIOUS COVER AS A REGIONAL INDICATOR

EPA Science Inventory

Increases in impervious surface area in a watershed gives rise to changes in stream hydrology, stream channel morphology, increased pollutant runoff, and an increase in stream water temperature. These physical changes in the stream systems in turn give rise to impacts on stream ...

Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

2012-04-01

In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade, particularly for the high scenario. Dutch design levels for coastal water defence structures (dikes and dunes) are based on extreme value statistics of long time series of high water levels. These design levels have typically return periods of 2000, 4000 and 10.000 years, depending on the importance of the protected dike ring. The last statistical analysis for the update of the design levels refers to the sea level situation of 1985. According to the Water Act Dutch design levels must be tested periodically (every 6 years). Due to sea level rise and tidal changes the design levels are corrected for the rise of the mean high waters from 1985 until the end of the testing period under consideration. This demands a tailoring approach for different regions or locations instead of a national average as for coastal preservation. Runs with climate models and coupled hydrodynamic models in the framework of the Essence project and the Delta Committee 2008 showed no indication for a change in the statistics of extreme storm surge levels. For the estimation of sea level rise over the last 120 years a linear regression gives the most robust estimate. Showing decadal variability needs more sophisticated models. For the last update of the design levels the elegant Whittaker smoother has been applied. Dutch policy prescribes to account for a future sea level rise of 60 cm per century for the design of new dikes or dike reinforcements and 85 cm per century for the long term (200 years) allocation of space for future reinforcements, in agreement with the KNMI'06 scenario's for sea level rise (central value and upper limit).

The contribution of sea-level rise to flooding in large river catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change is expected to both impact sea level rise as well as flooding. Our study focuses on the combined effect of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths and the impact this will have on river flooding both at the coast and further upstream. We concentrate on the eight catchments of the Amazonas, Congo, Orinoco, Ganges/Brahmaputra/Meghna, Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Danube and Niger rivers. To assess the impact of climate change, upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. Continuous daily time series for average catchment precipitation and discharge are available for each of the catchments. To arrive at a future discharge time series, we used these observations to develop a simple statistical hydrological model which can be applied to the modelled future upper catchment precipitation values. The analysis of this surrogate discharge time series alone already yields significant changes in flood return levels as well as flood duration. Using the geometry of the river channel, the backwater effect of sea-level rise is incorporated in our analysis of both flood frequencies and magnitudes by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the increase in water level at the river mouth outflow, as well as its tapering impact upstream. By combining these effects, our results focus on the merged impact of changes in extreme precipitation with increases in river height due to sea-level rise at the river mouths. Judging from our preliminary results, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing late 21st century flooding in the respective river basins. In particular, we find that especially in countries with low elevation gradient, flood characteristics are impacted by changes in sea-level rise as far inland as 150 kilometers. Therefore, a larger population than the coastal inhabitants alone are exposed to risks of further projected increases of sea-level rise. A prime example for a megacity greatly put at risk by this is Dhaka City in Bangladesh, with a population of roughly 14 million people.

The Rise of Flowering Plants and Land Surface Physics: The Cretaceous and Eocene Were Different

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upchurch, G. R.; Feild, T.

2010-12-01

The Cretaceous and Eocene have served as the poster children of past greenhouse climates. One difference between the two time periods is that angiosperms (flowering plants) underwent a major diversification and rise to dominance during the mid-Cretaceous to Paleocene. Flowering plants differ from all other living and fossil plants in having significantly higher rates of transpiration and photosynthesis, which in modern leaves correlate with the density of venation (Dv), a feature that can be measured directly from fossils. This increase in Dv, coupled with an increase in the abundance of angiosperms, is thought to have had major impact on the climate system. This is, in part, because transpiration plays an important role in determining the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux from the land surface and in determining precipitation rate in regions such as the equatorial rainforest. Analysis of Dv in fossil leaves indicates two phases of increase in transpiration rate for angiosperms during the Cretaceous-Paleocene. The oldest known angiosperms (Aptian-early Albian) have a low Dv characteristic of extant and fossil ferns and gymnosperms. At this time angiosperms are low-stature plants of minor importance in terms of relative abundance and diversity (<5%). The first phase of Dv increase occurs during the Late Albian to Cenomanian, where average Dv is 40% greater than that of conifers and ferns, and maximum Dv reaches levels characteristic of many trees from the temperate zone. This first phase coincides with the first local dominance of angiosperms, the first occurrence of moderate to large angiosperm trees (up to 1 m in diameter) , and the first common occurrence of angiosperms in the Arctic. The second phase of Dv increase occurs during the Maastrichtian to Paleocene, where average Dv reaches levels characteristic of modern tropical forests and maximum Dv reaches the level found in highly productive modern vegetation. This second phase coincides with the rise to dominance of angiosperms in regional vegetation, a corresponding decline of conifers and ferns, and the modernization of hydraulic architecture in angiosperm wood. The full implications of these changes in land cover have yet to be explored with Earth System models, especially outside the tropics. However, under similar LAI and pCO2, Cretaceous vegetation would have made a greater contribution to global warming than Eocene vegetation through greater sensible heating of the land surface and possibly reduced liquid clouds due to decreased transpiration.

Groundwater–surface-water exchange and the geologic setting of northern Minnesota's lakes, wetlands, and streams—Modern-day relevance of Tom Winter's legacy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberry, Donald O.; Melchior, Robert C.; Jones, Perry M.; Strietz, Andrew; Barr, Kelton D.; Lee, David R.; Piegat, James J.

2011-01-01

Tom Winter spent nearly 50 years conducting research in earth science, and he specialized in the exchange between groundwater and surface water. Tom's highly productive career began in Minnesota. This fi eld trip revisits many of the places where Tom conducted his early research and demonstrates the continuing relevance of that research. Stops and topics include the groundwater infl uence on the record low stage of White Bear Lake, the contribution of groundwater to continually rising water levels in an abandoned open-pit iron mine, hydrogeology of the Shingobee headwaters aquatic ecosystem research site, hydrogeology of Lake Sallie, geology associated with the Pillager water gap, and the hydrogeology of Little Rock Lake.

Symmetry lowering of pentacene molecular states interacting with a Cu surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldacchini, Chiara; Mariani, Carlo; Betti, Maria Grazia; Vobornik, Ivana; Fujii, Jun; Annese, Emilia; Rossi, Giorgio; Ferretti, Andrea; Calzolari, Arrigo; di Felice, Rosa; Ruini, Alice; Molinari, Elisa

2007-12-01

Pentacene adsorbed on the Cu(119) vicinal surface forms long-range ordered chain structures. Photoemission spectroscopy measurements and ab initio density functional theory simulations provide consistent evidences that pentacene molecular orbitals mix with the copper bands, giving rise to interaction states localized at the interface. Angular-resolved and polarization dependent photoemission spectroscopy shows that most of the pentacene derived intensity is strongly dichroic. The symmetry of the molecular states of the free pentacene molecules is reduced upon adsorption on Cu(119), as a consequence of the molecule-metal interaction. Theoretical results show a redistribution of the charge density in π molecular states close to the Fermi level, consistent with the photoemission intensities (density of states) and polarization dependence (orbital symmetry).

Understanding Climate Change and Sea Level: A Case Study of Middle School Student Comprehension and An Evaluation of Tide Gauges off the Panama Canal in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millan-Otoya, Juan C.

The present study had two main objectives. The first was to determine the degree of understanding of climate change, sea level and sea level rise among middle school students. Combining open-ended questions with likert-scaled questions, we identified student conceptions on these topics in 86 students from 7th and 8th grades during 2012 and 2013 before and after implementing a Curriculum Unit (CU). Additional information was obtained by adding drawings to the open-ended questions during the second year to gauge how student conceptions varied from a verbal and a visual perspective. Misconceptions were identified both pre- and post-CU among all the topics taught. Students commonly used climate and climate change as synonyms, sea level was often defined as water depth, and several students failed to understand the complexities that determine changes in sea level due to wind, tides, and changes in sea surface temperature. In general, 8th grade students demonstrated a better understanding of these topics, as reflected in fewer apparent misconceptions after the CU. No previous study had reported such improvement. This showed the value of implementing short lessons. Using Piaget's theories on cognitive development, the differences between 7th and 8th grade students reflect a transition to a more mature level which allowed students to comprehend more complex concepts that included multiple variables. The second objective was to determine if the frequency of sea level maxima not associated with tides over the last 100 years increased in two tide gauges located on the two extremes of the Panama canal, i.e. Balboa in the Pacific Ocean and Cristobal in the Caribbean Sea. These records were compared to time series of regional sea surface temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to determine if these played a role as physical drivers of sea level at either location. Neither record showed an increase in the frequency of sea level maxima events. No parameter analyzed explained variability in sea level maxima in Cristobal. There was a significant correlation between the zonal component of the wind and sea level at Balboa for the early record (r=0.153; p-value<0.05), but for the most part the p-values did not support the hypothesis of a correlation. Similarly, sea surface temperature had an effect on sea level at Balboa, but the null hypothesis that there is no correlation could not be rejected (p-value>0.05). There was a clear relationship between sea level maxima and ENSO. 70% of the years with higher counts of higher sea level events corresponded to El Nino years. A randomization test with 1000 iterations, shuffling the El Nino years, showed most of these randomizations grouped between 14-35% of the events occurring during a randomized El Nino year. In no iteration did the percentage of events that occurred during El Nino years rise above 65%. The correlation with zonal wind and the probable correlation with sea surface temperature can be linked via ENSO, since ENSO is associated with changes in the strength of the Trade Winds and positive anomalies in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Coastline Mapping and Cultural Review to Predict Sea Level Rise Impact on Hawaiian Archeological Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clinton, J.

2017-12-01

Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

PubMed

McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

2015-05-28

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Dynamic thermal effects of epidermal melanin and plasmonic nanoparticles during photoacoustic breast imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghassemi, Pejhman; Wang, Quanzeng; Pfefer, T. Joshua

2016-03-01

Photoacoustic Tomography (PAT) employs high-power near-infrared (near-IR) laser pulses to generate structural and functional information on tissue chromophores up to several centimeters below the surface. Such insights may facilitate detection of breast cancer - the most common cancer in women. PAT mammography has been the subject of extensive research, including techniques based on exogenous agents for PAT contrast enhancement and molecular specificity. However, photothermal safety risks of PAT due to strong chromophores such as epidermal melanin and plasmonic nanoparticles have not been rigorously studied. We have used computational and experimental approaches to elucidate highly dynamic optical-thermal processes during PAT. A Monte Carlo model was used to simulate light propagation at 800 and 1064 nm in a multi-layer breast tissue geometry with different epidermal pigmentation levels and a tumorsimulating inclusion incorporating nanoparticles. Energy deposition results were then used in a bioheat transfer model to simulate temperature transients. Experimental measurements involved multi-layer hydrogel phantoms with inclusions incorporating gold nanoparticles. Phantom optical properties were measured using the inverse adding-doubling technique. Thermal imaging was performed as phantoms were irradiated with 5 ns near-IR pulses. Scenarios using 10 Hz laser irradiation of breast tissue containing various nanoparticle concentrations were implemented experimentally and computationally. Laser exposure levels were based on ANSI/IEC limits. Surface temperature measurements were compared to corresponding simulation data. In general, the effect of highly pigmented skin on temperature rise was significant, whereas unexpectedly small levels of temperature rise during nanoparticle irradiation were attributed to rapid photodegradation. Results provide key initial insights into light-tissue interactions impacting the safety and effectiveness of PAT.

Windy Mars: A Dynamic Planet as Seen by the HiRISE Camera

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, N. T.; Geissler, P. E.; McEwen, A. S.; Thomson, B. J.; Chuang, F. C.; Herkenhoff, K. E.; Keszthelyi, L. P.; Martnez-Alonso, S.

2007-01-01

With a dynamic atmosphere and a large supply of particulate material, the surface of Mars is heavily influenced by wind-driven, or aeolian, processes. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) provides a new view of Martian geology, with the ability to see decimeter-size features. Current sand movement, and evidence for recent bedform development, is observed. Dunes and ripples generally exhibit complex surfaces down to the limits of resolution. Yardangs have diverse textures, with some being massive at HiRISE scale, others having horizontal and cross-cutting layers of variable character, and some exhibiting blocky and polygonal morphologies. 'Reticulate' (fine polygonal texture) bedforms are ubiquitous in the thick mantle at the highest elevations.

Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D. J.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2018-03-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28-82 cm), 56 cm (28-96 cm), and 58 cm (37-93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7-8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with ESL event frequency amplification being reduced by about half at most tide gauges. In general, smaller reductions are projected for Small Island Developing States.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

2016-05-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ˜ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Investigating the vertical dimension of Singapore's urban heat island through quadcopter platforms: an pilot study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, Winston; Ho, Dawn

2016-04-01

In numerous cities, measurements of urban warmth in most urban heat island (UHI) studies are generally constrained towards surface or near-surface (<2 m above surface level) levels across horizontal variations in land use and land cover. However, there has been hitherto limited attention towards the measurement of vertical temperature profiles extending from the urban surface, urban canopy layer through to the urban boundary layer. Knowledge of these profiles, through (a.) how they vary over different local urban morphologies, and (b.) develop with respect to synoptic meteorological conditions, are important towards several aspects of UHI research; these include validating modelling urban canopy lapse rate profiles or estimating the growth of urban plumes. In this novel study, we utilised temperature sensor-loggers attached onto remote controlled aerial quadcopter platforms to measure urban temperature profiles up to 100 m above ground level in Singapore, which is a rapidly urbanizing major tropical metropolis. Three different land use/land cover categories were sampled; a high-rise residential estate, a university campus, and an urban park/green-space. Sorties were flown repeatedly at four different times - sunrise, noon, sunset and midnight. Initial results indicate significant variations in intra-site stability and inversion development between the urban canopy and boundary layers. These profiles are also temporally dynamic, depending on the time of day and larger-scale weather conditions.

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

Latest Holocene evolution and human disturbance of a channel segment in the Hudson River Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klingbeil, A.D.; Sommerfield, C.K.

2005-01-01

The latest Holocene sedimentary record of a cohesive channel and subtidal shoal in the lower Hudson River Estuary was examined to elucidate natural (sea-level rise, sediment transport) and anthropogenic (bulkheading, dredging) influences on the recent morphodynamic evolution of the system. To characterize the seafloor and shallow subbottom, ??? 100 km of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles (chirp) were collected within a 20-km reach of the estuary and correlated with sediment lithologies provided by eight vibracores recovered along seismic lines. Sediment geochronology with 137Cs and 14C was used to estimate intermediate and long-term sedimentation rates, respectively, and historical bathymetric data were analyzed to identify regional patterns of accretion and erosion, and to quantify changes in channel geometry and sediment volume. The shoal lithosome originated around 4 ka presumably with decelerating eustatic sea level rise during the latest Holocene. Long-term sedimentation rates on the shoal (2.3-2.6 mm/yr) are higher than in the channel (2 mm/yr) owing to hydrodynamic conditions that preferentially sequester suspended sediment on the western side of the estuary. As a result, the shoal accretes oblique to the principal axis of tidal transport, and more rapidly than the channel to produce an asymmetric cross-section. Shoal deposits consist of tidally bedded muds and are stratified by minor erosion surfaces that seismic profiles reveal to extend for 10s of meters to kilometers. The frequency and continuity of these surfaces suggest that the surficial shoal is catastrophically stripped on decadal-centennial time scales by elevated tidal flows; tidal erosion maintains the shoal at a uniform depth below sea level and prevents it from transitioning to an intertidal environment. Consequently, the long-term sedimentation rate approximates the rate of sea-level rise in the lower estuary (1-3 mm/yr). After the mid 1800s, the natural geometry of the lower Hudson River Estuary changed rapidly in response to engineering works that forced the channel to self-deepen. Analysis of historical bathymetric data indicates that the channel lost an estimated 3 ?? 106 tons of sediment between ca. 1939 and 2002 (50,000 tons/yr average) by subaqueous erosion, increasing in depth by as much as 4 m in places. Erosion appears to have been concurrent with systematic bulkheading of the shoreline after ca. 1865, which decreased the estuary surface area by ??? 19% overall. Evidently, self-deepening of the channel is a morphodynamic adjustment to reestablish equilibrium cross-sectional area, yet the state of this change locally and elsewhere in the estuary is unknown. Subaqueous erosion documented in this study is a significant source of sediment with implications to the sediment budget and environmental quality of the Hudson River Estuary. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of surface thickness on the wetting front velocity during jet impingement surface cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, Chitranjan; Gotherwal, Deepesh; Singh, Chandradeep; Singh, Charan

2017-02-01

A hot stainless steel (SS-304) surface of 450 ± 10 °C initial temperature is cooled with a normally impinging round water jet. The experiments have been performed for the surface of different thickness e.g. 1, 2, 3 mm and jet Reynolds number in the range of Re = 26,500-48,000. The cooling performance of the hot test surface is evaluated on the basis of wetting front velocity. The wetting front velocity is determined for 10-40 mm downstream spatial locations away from the stagnation point. It has been observed that the wetting front velocity increase with the rise in jet flow rate, however, diminishes towards the downstream spatial location and with the rise in surface thickness. The proposed correlation for the dimensionless wetting front velocity predicts the experimental data well within the error band of ±30 %, whereas, 75 % of experimental data lies within the range of ±20 %.

Ground-Water Occurrence and Movement, 2006, and Water-Level Changes in the Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valley Basins, Mohave County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, David W.; Truini, Margot; Flynn, Marilyn E.; Remick, William H.

2007-01-01

Ground-water levels for water year 2006 and their change over time in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valley Basins of northwestern Arizona were investigated to improve the understanding of current and past ground-water conditions in these basins. The potentiometric surface for ground water in the Basin-Fill aquifer of each basin is generally parallel to topography. Consequently, ground-water movement is generally from the mountain front toward the basin center and then along the basin axis toward the Colorado River or Lake Mead. Observed water levels in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valley Basins have fluctuated during the period of historic water-level records (1943 through 2006). In Detrital Valley Basin, water levels in monitored areas have either remained the same, or have steadily increased as much as 3.5 feet since the 1980s. Similar steady conditions or water-level rises were observed for much of the northern and central parts of Hualapai Valley Basin. During the period of historic record, steady water-level declines as large as 60 feet were found in wells penetrating the Basin-Fill aquifer in areas near Kingman, northwest of Hackberry, and northeast of Dolan Springs within the Hualapai Valley Basin. Within the Sacramento Valley Basin, during the period of historic record, water-level declines as large as 55 feet were observed in wells penetrating the Basin-Fill aquifer in the Kingman and Golden Valley areas; whereas small, steady rises were observed in Yucca and in the Dutch Flat area.

Stratigraphy and Facies of Cretaceous Schrader Bluff and Prince Creek Formations in Colville River Bluffs, North Slope, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flores, Romeo M.; Myers, Mark D.; Houseknecht, David W.; Stricker, Gary D.; Brizzolara, Donald W.; Ryherd, Timothy J.; Takahashi, Kenneth I.

2007-01-01

Stratigraphic and sedimentologic studies of facies of the Upper Cretaceous rocks along the Colville River Bluffs in the west-central North Slope of Alaska identified barrier shoreface deposits consisting of vertically stacked, coarsening-upward parasequences in the Schrader Bluff Formation. This vertical stack of parasequence deposits represents progradational sequences that were affected by shoaling and deepening cycles caused by fluctuations of sea level. Further, the vertical stack may have served to stabilize accumulation of voluminous coal deposits in the Prince Creek Formation, which formed braided, high-sinuosity meandering, anastomosed, and low-sinuosity meandering fluvial channels and related flood plain deposits. The erosional contact at the top of the uppermost coarsening-upward sequence, however, suggests a significant drop of base level (relative sea level) that permitted a semiregional subaerial unconformity to develop at the contact between the Schrader Bluff and Prince Creek Formations. This drop of relative sea level may have been followed by a relative sea-level rise to accommodate coal deposition directly above the unconformity. This rise was followed by a second drop of relative sea level, with formation of incised valley topography as much as 75 ft deep and an equivalent surface of a major marine erosion or mass wasting, or both, either of which can be traced from the Colville River Bluffs basinward to the subsurface in the west-central North Slope. The Prince Creek fluvial deposits represent late Campanian to late Maastrichtian depositional environments that were affected by these base level changes influenced by tectonism, basin subsidence, and sea-level fluctuations.

Dynamics of poroelastocapillary rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasouri, Babak; Elfring, Gwynn

2017-11-01

The surface-tension-driven rise of a liquid between two elastic sheets can result in their deformation or coalescence depending on their flexibility. When the sheets are poroelastic, the flexibility of the immersed parts of the sheets can change considerably thereby altering the dynamical behavior of the system. To better understand this phenomenon, we study the poroelastocapillary rise of a wetting liquid between poroelastic sheets. Using the lubrication theory and linear elasticity, we quantify the effects of the change in material properties of the wet sheets on the capillary rise and the equilibrium state of the system.

Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Simon; Leon, Javier X.; Grinham, Alistair R.; Church, John A.; Gibbes, Badin R.; Woodroffe, Colin D.

2016-05-01

Low-lying reef islands in the Solomon Islands provide a valuable window into the future impacts of global sea-level rise. Sea-level rise has been predicted to cause widespread erosion and inundation of low-lying atolls in the central Pacific. However, the limited research on reef islands in the western Pacific indicates the majority of shoreline changes and inundation to date result from extreme events, seawalls and inappropriate development rather than sea-level rise alone. Here, we present the first analysis of coastal dynamics from a sea-level rise hotspot in the Solomon Islands. Using time series aerial and satellite imagery from 1947 to 2014 of 33 islands, along with historical insight from local knowledge, we have identified five vegetated reef islands that have vanished over this time period and a further six islands experiencing severe shoreline recession. Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations. Rates of shoreline recession are substantially higher in areas exposed to high wave energy, indicating a synergistic interaction between sea-level rise and waves. Understanding these local factors that increase the susceptibility of islands to coastal erosion is critical to guide adaptation responses for these remote Pacific communities.

Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

2016-01-01

In the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to sea-level fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of flood-prevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most sea-level rise sensitive and wetland-rich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop sea-level rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

Potentiometric surfaces, summer 2013 and winter 2015, and select hydrographs for the Southern High Plains aquifer, Cannon Air Force Base, Curry County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collison, Jake

2016-04-07

Cannon Air Force Base (Cannon AFB) is located in the High Plains physiographic region of east-central New Mexico, about 5 miles west of Clovis, New Mexico. The area surrounding Cannon AFB is primarily used for agriculture, including irrigated cropland and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer is the principal source of water for Cannon AFB, for the nearby town of Clovis, and for local agriculture and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer in the vicinity of Cannon AFB consists of three subsurface geological formations: the Chinle Formation of Triassic age, the Ogallala Formation of Tertiary age, and the Blackwater Draw Formation of Quaternary age. The Ogallala Formation is the main water-yielding formation of the Southern High Plains aquifer. Groundwater-supplied, center-pivot irrigation dominates pumping from the Southern High Plains aquifer in the area surrounding Cannon AFB, where the irrigation season typically extends from early March through October. The U.S. Geological Survey has been monitoring groundwater levels in the vicinity of Cannon AFB since 1954 and has developed general potentiometric-surface maps that show groundwater flow from northwest to southeast in the study area. While previous potentiometric-surface maps show the general direction of groundwater flow, a denser well network is needed to show details of groundwater flow at a local scale. Groundwater levels were measured in 93 wells during summer 2013 and 100 wells during winter 2015.The summer and winter potentiometric-surface maps display the presence of what is interpreted to be a groundwater trough trending from the northwest to the southeast through the study area. This groundwater trough may be the hydraulic expression of a Tertiary-age paleochannel. Groundwater north of the trough flows in a southerly direction into the trough, and groundwater south of the trough flows in an easterly direction into the trough.During the 18-month period between summer 2013 and winter 2015, changes in groundwater levels ranged from a rise of 10.0 to a decline of 3.8 feet. The regions to the north and south of the groundwater trough contained the majority of the rises in groundwater levels, whereas the regions within the trough contained the majority of the declines in groundwater levels. In contrast, the long-term groundwater-level trend in wells with 20 to 60 years of record is a steady decline in average annual water levels, with declines ranging from 0.41 to 2.81 feet per year. Overall, the northwestern part of the study area exhibits the smallest average annual declines, while the southeastern part of the study area exhibits the largest average annual declines.

Evidence for a substantial West Antarctic ice sheet contribution to meltwater pulses and abrupt global sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Woodward, J.; Winter, K.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Curran, M. A.; Rootes, C.; Rivera, A.; Millman, H.

2015-12-01

During the last deglaciation (21,000 to 7,000years ago) global sea level rise was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater spikes triggered by the retreat of ice sheets and glaciers world-wide. However, the debate regarding the relative timing, geographical source and the physical mechanisms driving these rapid increases in sea level has catalyzed debate critical to predicting future sea level rise and climate. Here we present a unique record of West Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation change derived from the Patriot Hills blue ice area, located close to the modern day grounding line of the Institute Ice Stream in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Combined isotopic signatures and gas volume analysis from the ice allows us to develop a record of local ice sheet palaeo-altitude that is assessed against independent regional high-resolution ice sheet modeling studies, allowing us to demonstrate that past ice sheet elevations across this sector of the WSE were considerably higher than those suggested by current terrestrial reconstructions. We argue that ice in the WSE had a significant influence on both pre and post LGM sea level rise including MWP-1A (~14.6 ka) and during MWP-1B (11.7-11.6 ka), reconciling past sea level rise and demonstrating for the first time that this sector of the WAIS made a significant and direct contribution to post LGM sea level rise.

46 CFR 164.007-5 - Test requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... thermocouples on the unexposed surface described in § 164.007-4(f)(2) will not rise more than 139 °C. (250 °F... through metallic connection, rise more than 181 °C. (325 °F.) above the original temperature at the end of...

46 CFR 164.007-5 - Test requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... thermocouples on the unexposed surface described in § 164.007-4(f)(2) will not rise more than 139 °C. (250 °F... through metallic connection, rise more than 181 °C. (325 °F.) above the original temperature at the end of...

Decision-making Processes among Prostate Cancer Survivors with Rising PSA Levels: Results from a Qualitative Analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Megan Johnson; Nelson, Christian J; Peters, Ellen; Slovin, Susan F; Hall, Simon J; Hall, Matt; Herrera, Phapichaya Chaoprang; Leventhal, Elaine A; Leventhal, Howard; Diefenbach, Michael A

2015-05-01

Prostate cancer survivors with a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level have few treatment options, experience a heightened state of uncertainty about their disease trajectory that might include the possibility of cancer metastasis and death, and often experience elevated levels of distress as they have to deal with a disease they thought they had conquered. Guided by self-regulation theory, the present study examined the cognitive and affective processes involved in shared decision making between physicians and patients who experience a rising PSA after definitive treatment for prostate cancer. In-depth interviews were conducted with 34 prostate cancer survivors who had been diagnosed with a rising PSA (i.e., biochemical failure) within the past 12 months. Survivors were asked about their experiences and affective responses after being diagnosed with a rising PSA and while weighing potential treatment options. In addition, patients were asked about their decision-making process for the initial prostate cancer treatment. Compared with the initial diagnosis, survivors with a rising PSA reported increased negative affect following their diagnosis, concern about the treatability of their disease, increased planning and health behavior change, heightened levels of worry preceding doctor appointments (especially prior to the discussion of PSA testing results), and a strong reliance on physicians' treatment recommendations. Prostate cancer survivors' decision-making processes for the treatment of a rising PSA are markedly different from those of the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. Because patients experience heightened distress and rely more heavily on their physicians' recommendations with a rising PSA, interactions with the health care provider provide an excellent opportunity to address and assist patients with managing the uncertainty and distress inherent with rising PSA levels. © The Author(s) 2014.

Experimental investigation of channel avulsion frequency on river deltas under rising sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvestre, J.; Chadwick, A. J.; Steele, S.; Lamb, M. P.

2017-12-01

River deltas are low-relief landscapes that are socioeconomically important; they are home to over half a billion people worldwide. Many deltas are built by cycles of lobe growth punctuated by abrupt channel shifts, or avulsions, which often reoccur at a similar location and with a regular frequency. Previous experimental work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in controlling channel avulsion location and timing on deltas under constant sea level conditions, but it is unclear how sea-level rise impacts avulsion dynamics. We present results from a flume experiment designed to isolate the role of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-influenced delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin. The experimental delta grew under subcritical flow, a persistent backwater zone, and a range of sea level rise rates. Without sea level rise, lobe progradation produced in-channel aggradation and periodic avulsions every 3.6 ± 0.9 hours, which corresponded to when channels aggraded to approximately one-half of their flow depth. With a modest rate of sea-level rise (0.25 mm/hr), we observed enhanced aggradation in the backwater zone, causing channels to aggrade more quickly and avulse more frequently (every 2.1 ± 0.6 hours). In future work, we expect further increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise to cause avulsion frequency to decrease as the delta drowns and the backwater zone retreats upstream. Experimental results can serve as tests of numerical models that are needed for hazard mitigation and coastal sustainability efforts on drowning deltas.

How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus

2015-08-01

Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico.more » Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.« less

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.