Weight loss and isotopic shifts for water drops frozen on a liquid nitrogen surface.

PubMed

Eguchi, Keiko; Abe, Osamu; Hiyama, Tetsuya

2008-10-01

A liquid nitrogen freezing method was used to collect raindrops for the determination of isotope-size distribution. Water drops that fall onto a surface of liquid nitrogen stay suspended for 10 to 20 s, until their temperature reaches the Leidenfrost point (126 K). As their temperature falls to the freezing point, they release their heat by thermal conduction. At the freezing point, latent heat of fusion is released, along with a significant loss of water. After freezing completely, the ice droplets stay suspended, cooling by thermal conduction until they reach the Leidenfrost point. They then lose buoyancy and start sinking. Consistent isotopic changes of 1.5 +/- 0.4 and 0.33 +/- 0.05 per thousand for hydrogen and oxygen, respectively, were found for droplets with radii between 1.0 and 1.5 mm. Isotope fractionation appeared to occur at the same time as water loss, as the droplets were freezing, in what was probably a kinetic effect.

Experimental forensic and bioanthropological aspects of soft tissue taphonomy: 1. Factors influencing postmortem tissue desiccation rate.

PubMed

Aturaliya, S; Lukasewycz, A

1999-09-01

Euthanized rats' carcasses were exposed in an environmental chamber to multiple variables including: (1) position, (2) enveloping clothing, and (3) soil interment in an effort to determine the individual variables' effect on postmortem rate of body and visceral organ water loss. Results indicated that body water loss was enhanced by a horizontal position versus vertical, probably because of wider spread of bacteria- and enzyme-laden abdominal fluid secondary to diaphragm digestion with consequent greater tissue digestion and liquefaction. Clothing also accelerated the desiccation rate. Desiccation was about equally as effective by soil interment as by air exposure, though simulating windy conditions by tripling the air flow rate resulted in much more rapid desiccation in the air-exposed specimen. These studies suggest that the single most important factor influencing postmortem body water loss rate is the environment at the skin surface that acts to enhance or impair water removal from the skin surface and thus influences the water concentration gradient between the skin and underlying deeper tissues.

Isothermal aging effects on PMR-15 resin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, Kenneth J.; Jayne, Douglas; Leonhardt, Todd A.

1992-01-01

Specimens of PMR-15 polyimide neat resin were aged in air at temperatures of 288, 316, and 343 C. Weight losses and dimensional changes were monitored during the course of the exposure time. Physical changes were also observed by optical and electron microscopy. It was found that polyimide polymer degradation occurred within a thin surface layer that developed and grew during thermal aging. The cores of the polymer specimens were protected from oxidative degradation, and they were relatively unchanged by the thermal treatment. Surface cracking was observed at 343 C and was probably due to an interaction between voids and stresses that developed in the surface layer.

Potential Impacts from Using Photoactive Roads as AN Air Quality Mitigation Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toro, C.; Jobson, B. T.; Shen, S.; Chung, S. H.; Haselbach, L.

2013-12-01

Mobile sources are major contributors to photochemical air pollution in urban areas. It has been proposed that the use of TiO2 coated roadways ('photoactive roads') could be an effective approach to reduce mobile source emissions by oxidizing NOx and VOC emissions at the roadway surface. However, studies have shown that formation of HONO and aldehydes can occur from some TiO2 treated surfaces during the photocatalytic oxidation of NOx and VOC, respectively. By changing the NOx-to-VOC ratio and generating photolabile HOx radical precursors, photoactive roads may enhance ozone formation rates in urban areas. In this work we present results that quantify NOx and VOC loss rates onto TiO2 treated asphalt and concrete samples, as well as HONO and aldehydes yields that result from the photocatalytic process. The treatment used a commercially available product. These objectives are relevant considering that the quantification of pollutant loss rates and yields of byproducts have not been determined for asphalt and that in the US more than 90% of the roadway surface is made of this material. Surface reaction probabilities (γ) and byproduct yields were determined using a CSTR photochemical chamber under varying conditions of water vapor and UV-A light intensity. Our results indicate that asphalt surfaces have a significantly higher molar yield of HONO compared to concrete surfaces with similar TiO2 loading. Concrete surfaces have reaction probabilities with NO one order of magnitude higher than asphalt samples. Fresh asphalt samples showed negligible photocatalytic activity, presumably due to absorption of TiO2 into the bitumen substrate. Laboratory-prepared asphalt samples with a higher degree of exposed aggregates showed increased HONO molar yields when compared to real-road asphalt samples, whose HONO molar yield was ~1%. Preliminary results for aldehydes formation showed similar molar yields between aged asphalt and concrete, even though aged asphalt samples had twice the TiO2 loading than concrete samples.

Flood Risk Due to Hurricane Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, Francisco; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Irish, Jennifer

2015-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the expected economic losses caused by hurricane inundation. We used surge response functions, which are physics-based dimensionless scaling laws that give surge elevation as a function of the hurricane's parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location) at specified locations along the coast. These locations were close enough to avoid significant changes in surge elevations between consecutive points, and distant enough to minimize calculations. The probability of occurrence of a surge elevation value at a given location was estimated using a joint probability distribution of the hurricane parameters. The surge elevation, at the shoreline, was assumed to project horizontally inland within a polygon of influence. Individual parcel damage was calculated based on flood water depth and damage vs. depth curves available for different building types from the HAZUS computer application developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Parcel data, including property value and building type, were obtained from the county appraisal district offices. The expected economic losses were calculated as the sum of the products of the estimated parcel damages and their probability of occurrence for the different storms considered. Anticipated changes for future climate scenarios were considered by accounting for projected hurricane intensification, as indicated by sea surface temperature rise, and sea level rise, which modify the probability distribution of hurricane central pressure and change the baseline of the damage calculation, respectively. Maps of expected economic losses have been developed for Corpus Christi in Texas, Gulfport in Mississippi and Panama City in Florida. Specifically, for Port Aransas, in the Corpus Christi area, it was found that the expected economic losses were in the range of 1% to 4% of the property value for current climate conditions, of 1% to 8% for the 2030's and of 1% to 14% for the 2080's.

Surface loss probability of atomic hydrogen for different electrode cover materials investigated in H₂-Ar low-pressure plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sode, M., E-mail: maik.sode@ipp.mpg.de; Schwarz-Selinger, T.; Jacob, W.

2014-07-07

In an inductively coupled H₂-Ar plasma at a total pressure of 1.5 Pa, the influence of the electrode cover material on selected line intensities of H, H₂, and Ar are determined by optical emission spectroscopy and actinometry for the electrode cover materials stainless steel, copper, tungsten, Macor{sup ®}, and aluminum. Hydrogen dissociation degrees for the considered conditions are determined experimentally from the measured emission intensity ratios. The surface loss probability β{sub H} of atomic hydrogen is correlated with the measured line intensities, and β{sub H} values are determined for the considered materials. Without the knowledge of the atomic hydrogen temperature,more » β{sub H} cannot be determined exactly. However, ratios of β{sub H} values for different surface materials are in first order approximation independent of the atomic hydrogen temperature. Our results show that β{sub H} of copper is equal to the value of stainless steel, β{sub H} of Macor{sup ®} and tungsten is about 2 times smaller and β{sub H} of aluminum about 5 times smaller compared with stainless steel. The latter ratio is in reasonable agreement with literature. The influence of the atomic hydrogen temperature T{sub H} on the absolute value is thoroughly discussed. For our assumption of T{sub H}=600 K, we determine a β{sub H} for stainless steel of 0.39±0.13.« less

Heterogeneous losses of externally generated I atoms for OIL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torbin, A. P.; Mikheyev, P. A.; Ufimtsev, N. I.; Voronov, A. I.; Azyazov, V. N.

2012-01-01

Usage of an external iodine atom generator can improve energy efficiency of the oxygen-iodine laser (OIL) and expand its range of operation parameters. However, a noticeable part of iodine atoms may recombine or undergo chemical bonding during transportation from the generator to the injection point. Experimental results reported in this paper showed that uncoated aluminum surfaces readily bounded iodine atoms, while nickel, stainless steel, Teflon or Plexiglas did not. Estimations based on experimental results had shown that the upper bound of probability of surface iodine atom recombination for materials Teflon, Plexiglas, nickel or stainless steel is γrec <= 10-5.

A measurement of the angular distribution of 5 eV atomic oxygen scattered off a solid surface in earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, John C.; Peters, Palmer N.

1986-01-01

The angular distribution of 5 eV atomic oxygen scattered off a polished vitreous carbon surface was measured on a recent Space Shuttle flight. The experimental apparatus was of novel design, completely passive, and used thin silver films as the recording device for oxygen atoms. Most of the incident oxygen was contained in the reflected beam and remained in an active form and probably still atoms. Allowance was made for 12 percent loss of incident atoms which are converted to CO at the carbon surface. The scattered distribution which is wide lobular, peaking 15 deg in the forward direction, shows almost but not quite full accommodation.

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Effects of meteorite impacts on the atmospheric evolution of Mars.

PubMed

Pham, Lê Binh San; Karatekin, Ozgür; Dehant, Véronique

2009-01-01

Early in its history, Mars probably had a denser atmosphere with sufficient greenhouse gases to sustain the presence of stable liquid water at the surface. Impacts by asteroids and comets would have played a significant role in the evolution of the martian atmosphere, not only by causing atmospheric erosion but also by delivering material and volatiles to the planet. We investigate the atmospheric loss and the delivery of volatiles with an analytical model that takes into account the impact simulation results and the flux of impactors given in the literature. The atmospheric loss and the delivery of volatiles are calculated to obtain the atmospheric pressure evolution. Our results suggest that the impacts alone cannot satisfactorily explain the loss of significant atmospheric mass since the Late Noachian (approximately 3.7-4 Ga). A period with intense bombardment of meteorites could have increased the atmospheric loss; but to explain the loss of a speculative massive atmosphere in the Late Noachian, other factors of atmospheric erosion and replenishment also need to be taken into account.

A Coupled Natural-Human Modeling of the Land Loss Probability in the Mississippi River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, H.; Lam, N.; Zou, L.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi River Delta (MRD) is one of the most environmentally threatened areas in the United States. The area has been suffering substantial land loss during the past decades. Land loss in the MRD has been a subject of intense research by many researchers from multiple disciplines, aiming at mitigating the land loss process and its potential damage. A majority of land loss projections were derived solely from the natural processes, such as sea level rise, regional subsidence, and reduced sediment flows. However, sufficient evidence has shown that land loss in the MRD also relates to human-induced factors such as land fragmentation, neighborhood effects, urbanization, energy industrialization, and marine transportation. How to incorporate both natural and human factors into the land loss modeling stays a huge challenge. Using a coupled-natural and human (CNH) approach can help uncover the complex mechanism of land loss in the MRD, and provide more accurate spatiotemporal projection of land loss patterns and probability. This study uses quantitative approaches to investigate the relationships between land loss and a wide range of socio-ecological variables in the MRD. A model of land loss probability based on selected socio-ecological variables and its neighborhood effects will be derived through variogram and regression analyses. Then, we will simulate the land loss probability and patterns under different scenarios such as sea-level rise, changes in storm frequency and strength, and changes in population to evaluate the sustainability of the MRD. The outcome of this study will be a layer of pixels with information on the probability of land-water conversion. Knowledge gained from this study will provide valuable insights into the optimal mitigation strategies of land loss prevention and restoration and help build long-term sustainability in the Mississippi River Delta.

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible

PubMed Central

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated. PMID:26783525

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated.

Recent progress in the NDE of cast ship propulsion components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spies, Martin; Rieder, Hans; Dillhöfer, Alexander; Rauhut, Markus; Taeubner, Kai; Kreier, Peter

2014-02-01

The failure of propulsion components of ships and ferries can lead to serious environmental and economic damage or even the loss of lives. For ultrasonic inspection of such large components we employ mechanized scanning and defect reconstruction using the Synthetic Aperture Focusing Technique (SAFT). We report on results obtained in view of the detection of defects with different inspection techniques. Also, we address the issue of Probability of Detection by reporting results obtained in POD and MAPOD-studies (Model-Assisted POD) using experimental and simulated data. Finally, we show recent results of surface and sub-surface inspection using optical and eddy current techniques.

Limits on modes of lithospheric heat transport on Venus from impact crater density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimm, Robert E.; Solomon, Sean C.

1987-01-01

Based on the observed density of impact craters on the Venus surface obtained from Venera 15-16 radar images, a formalism to estimate the upper bounds on the contributions made to lithospheric heat transport by volcanism and lithospheric recycling is presented. The Venera 15-16 data, if representative of the entire planet, limit the average rate of volcanic resurfacing on Venus to less than 2 cu km/yr (corresponding to less than 1 percent of the global heat loss), and limit the rate of lithospheric recycling to less than 1.5 sq km/yr (and probably to less than 0.5 sq km/yr), corresponding to 25 percent (and to 9 percent) of the global heat loss. The present results indicate that heat loss at lithospheric levels in Venus is dominated by conduction.

Probability Discounting of Gains and Losses: Implications for Risk Attitudes and Impulsivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shead, N. Will; Hodgins, David C.

2009-01-01

Sixty college students performed three discounting tasks: probability discounting of gains, probability discounting of losses, and delay discounting of gains. Each task used an adjusting-amount procedure, and participants' choices affected the amount and timing of their remuneration for participating. Both group and individual discounting…

Feasibility of determining flat roof heat losses using aerial thermography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, R. L.; Jack, J. R.

1979-01-01

The utility of aerial thermography for determining rooftop heat losses was investigated experimentally using several completely instrumented test roofs with known thermal resistances. Actual rooftop heat losses were obtained both from in-situ instrumentation and aerial thermography obtained from overflights at an altitude of 305 m. In general, the remotely determined roof surface temperatures agreed very well with those obtained from ground measurements. The roof heat losses calculated using the remotely determined roof temperature agreed to within 17% of those calculated from 1/R delta T using ground measurements. However, this agreement may be fortuitous since the convective component of the heat loss is sensitive to small changes in roof temperature and to the average heat transfer coefficient used, whereas the radiative component is less sensitive. This, at this time, it is felt that an acceptable quantitative determination of roof heat losses using aerial thermography is only feasible when the convective term is accurately known or minimized. The sensitivity of the heat loss determination to environmental conditions was also evaluated. The analysis showed that the most reliable quantitative heat loss determinations can probably be obtained from aerial thermography taken under conditions of total cloud cover with low wind speeds and at low ambient temperatures.

Communication: Energy transfer and reaction dynamics for DCl scattering on Au(111): An ab initio molecular dynamics study.

PubMed

Kolb, Brian; Guo, Hua

2016-07-07

Scattering and dissociative chemisorption of DCl on Au(111) are investigated using ab initio molecular dynamics with a slab model, in which the top two layers of Au are mobile. Substantial kinetic energy loss in the scattered DCl is found, but the amount of energy transfer is notably smaller than that observed in the experiment. On the other hand, the dissociative chemisorption probability reproduces the experimental trend with respect to the initial kinetic energy, but is about one order of magnitude larger than the reported initial sticking probability. While the theory-experiment agreement is significantly improved from the previous rigid surface model, the remaining discrepancies are still substantial, calling for further scrutiny in both theory and experiment.

Decisions under risk in Parkinson's disease: preserved evaluation of probability and magnitude.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; McKeown, Martin J; Appel-Cresswell, Silke; Stoessl, A Jon; Barton, Jason J S

2013-11-01

Unmedicated Parkinson's disease patients tend to be risk-averse while dopaminergic treatment causes a tendency to take risks. While dopamine agonists may result in clinically apparent impulse control disorders, treatment with levodopa also causes shift in behaviour associated with an enhanced response to rewards. Two important determinants in decision-making are how subjects perceive the magnitude and probability of outcomes. Our objective was to determine if patients with Parkinson's disease on or off levodopa showed differences in their perception of value when making decisions under risk. The Vancouver Gambling task presents subjects with a choice between one prospect with larger outcome and a second with higher probability. Eighteen age-matched controls and eighteen patients with Parkinson's disease before and after levodopa were tested. In the Gain Phase subjects chose between one prospect with higher probability and another with larger reward to maximize their gains. In the Loss Phase, subjects played to minimize their losses. Patients with Parkinson's disease, on or off levodopa, were similar to controls when evaluating gains. However, in the Loss Phase before levodopa, they were more likely to avoid the prospect with lower probability but larger loss, as indicated by the steeper slope of their group psychometric function (t(24) = 2.21, p = 0.04). Modelling with prospect theory suggested that this was attributable to a 28% overestimation of the magnitude of loss, rather than an altered perception of its probability. While pre-medicated patients with Parkinson's disease show risk-aversion for large losses, patients on levodopa have normal perception of magnitude and probability for both loss and gain. The finding of accurate and normally biased decisions under risk in medicated patients with PD is important because it indicates that, if there is indeed anomalous risk-seeking behaviour in such a cohort, it may derive from abnormalities in components of decision making that are separate from evaluations of size and probability. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EFFECT OF AN ACID RAIN ENVIRONMENT ON LIMESTONE SURFACES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mossotti, Victor G.; Lindsay, James R.; Hochella, Michael F.

1987-01-01

Salem limestone samples were exposed to weathering for 1 y in several urban and one rural environments. Samples exposed in the rural location were chemically indistinguishable from the freshly quarried limestone, whereas all samples collected from urban exposure sites developed gypsum stains on the ground-facing surfaces where the stones were not washed by precipitation. The gas-solid reaction of SO//2 with calcite was selected for detailed consideration. It appears from the model that under arid conditions, the quantity of stain deposited on an unwashed surface is independent of atmospheric SO//2 concentration once the surface has been saturated with gypsum. Under wet conditions, surface sulfation and weight loss are probably dominated by mechanisms involving wet stone. However, if the rain events are frequent and delimited by periods of dryness, the quantity of gypsum produced by a gas-solid reaction mechanism should correlate with both the frequency of rain events and the atmospheric SO//2 level.

Simulation of rainfall-runoff response in mined and unmined watersheds in coal areas of West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso; Atkins, John T.

1989-01-01

Meteorologic and hydrologic data from five small watersheds in the coal areas of West Virginia were used to calibrate and test the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System for simulating streamflow under various climatic and land-use conditions. Three of the basins--Horsecamp Run, Gilmer Run, and Collison Creek--are primarily forested and relatively undisturbed. The remaining basins--Drawdy Creek and Brier Creek-are extensively mined, both surface and underground above stream drainage level. Low-flow measurements at numerous synoptic sites in the mined basins indicate that coal mining has substantially altered the hydrologic system of each basin. The effects of mining on streamflow that were identified are (1) reduced base flow in stream segments underlain by underground mines, (2) increased base flow in streams that are downdip and stratigraphically below the elevation of the mined coal beds, and (3) interbasin transfer of ground water through underground mines. These changes probably reflect increased permeability of surface rocks caused by subsidence fractures associated with collapsed underground mines in the basin. Such fractures would increase downward percolation of precipitation, surface and subsurface flow, and ground-water flow to deeper rocks or to underground mine workings. Model simulations of the water budgets for the unmined basins during the 1972-73 water years indicate that total annual runoff averaged 60 percent of average annual precipitation; annual evapotranspiration losses averaged 40 percent of average annual precipitation. Of the total annual runoff, approximately 91 percent was surface and subsurface runoff and 9 percent was groundwater discharge. Changes in storage in the soil zone and in the subsurface and ground-water reservoirs in the basins were negligible. In contrast, water-budget simulations for the mined basins indicate significant differences in annual recharge and in total annual runoff. Model simulations of the water budget for Drawdy Creek basin indicate that total annual runoff during 1972-73 averaged only 43 percent of average annual precipitation--the lowest of all study basins; annual evapotranspiration losses averaged 49 percent, and interbasin transfer of ground-water losses averaged about 8 percent. Of the total annual runoff, approximately 74 percent was surface and subsurface flow and 26 percent was ground-water discharge. The low total annual runoff at Drawdy Creek probably reflects increased recharge of precipitation and surface and subsurface flow losses to ground water. Most of the increase in ground-water storage is, in turn, lost to a ground-water sink--namely, interbasin transfer of ground water by gravity drainage and (or) mine pumpage from underground mines that extend to adjacent basins. Hypothetical mining situations were posed for model analysis to determine the effects of increased mining on streamflow in the mined basins. Results of model simulations indicate that streamflow characteristics, the water budget, and the seasonal distribution of streamflow would be significantly modified in response to an increase in mining in the basins. Simulations indicate that (1) total annual runoff in the basins would decrease because of increased surface- and subsurface-flow losses and increased recharge of precipitation to ground water (these losses would tend to reduce medium to high flows mainly during winter and spring when losses would be greatest), (2) extreme high flows in response to intense rainstorms would be negligibly affected, regardless of the magnitude of mining in the basins, (3) ground-water discharge also would decrease during winter and spring, but the amount and duration of low flows during summer and fall would substantially increase in response to increased ground-water storage in rocks and in underground mines, and (4) the increase in ground-water storage in the basins would be depleted, mostly by increased losses to a grou

Prediction of Estrogen Runoff and Transport Driven by Rainfalls from Swine Spray Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, B.; Reckhow, K. H.; Kullman, S. W.

2010-12-01

Animal waste-borne steroidal hormones, which are referred to as natural steroidal estrogens, are recognized pollutants to surface water systems. Steroidal estrogens exhibit strong potency, even at very low concentrations, as endocrine disrupting chemicals on aquatic organisms. In North Carolina, the swine concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) have been a major source for the release of estrogens to watersheds. Release is a direct result of the land application of the generated waste as an organic fertilizer. However, data regarding the estrogen loss and transport through the surface runoff and soil erosion to the water bodies after the spray-fields application has been up till now very limited. We have developed a decision support tool that can help predict and ultimately manage the potential mobilization and transport of estrogens from CAFOs, through the processes of surface runoff transport and sediment loss, into adjacent water bodies. Our decision support tool was built using a dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) framework. The developed DBN model integrates the processes of a sediment loss and a surface runoff by using the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the SCS-CN curve runoff models. Estrogen mobility is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity and land use management with consideration to the temporal distribution of both. The DBN is used to model the estrogen concentration in the runoff process, to determine the degree of off-site movement of estrogens, and to verify the potential environmental significance of the estrogen inputs into the stream. We believe that our modeling framework is particularly useful for use in field situations where estrogen runoff data are not available or are scarce. The DBN model also provides a means to handle the uncertainties of mathematical sediment and runoff models as a dynamic probability model.

Microscopic modeling of gas-surface scattering: II. Application to argon atom adsorption on a platinum (111) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filinov, A.; Bonitz, M.; Loffhagen, D.

2018-06-01

A new combination of first principle molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with a rate equation model presented in the preceding paper (paper I) is applied to analyze in detail the scattering of argon atoms from a platinum (111) surface. The combined model is based on a classification of all atom trajectories according to their energies into trapped, quasi-trapped and scattering states. The number of particles in each of the three classes obeys coupled rate equations. The coefficients in the rate equations are the transition probabilities between these states which are obtained from MD simulations. While these rates are generally time-dependent, after a characteristic time scale t E of several tens of picoseconds they become stationary allowing for a rather simple analysis. Here, we investigate this time scale by analyzing in detail the temporal evolution of the energy distribution functions of the adsorbate atoms. We separately study the energy loss distribution function of the atoms and the distribution function of in-plane and perpendicular energy components. Further, we compute the sticking probability of argon atoms as a function of incident energy, angle and lattice temperature. Our model is important for plasma-surface modeling as it allows to extend accurate simulations to longer time scales.

Mouse models for human hair loss disorders

PubMed Central

Porter, Rebecca M

2003-01-01

The outer surface of the hand, limb and body is covered by the epidermis, which is elaborated into a number of specialized appendages, evolved not only to protect and reinforce the skin but also for social signalling. The most prominent of these appendages is the hair follicle. Hair follicles are remarkable because of their prolific growth characteristics and their complexity of differentiation. After initial embryonic morphogenesis, the hair follicle undergoes repeated cycles of regression and regeneration throughout the lifetime of the organism. Studies of mouse mutants with hair loss phenotypes have suggested that the mechanisms controlling the hair cycle probably involve many of the major signalling molecules used elsewhere in development, although the complete pathway of hair follicle growth control is not yet understood. Mouse studies have also led to the discovery of genes underlying several human disorders. Future studies of mouse hair-loss mutants are likely to benefit the understanding of human hair loss as well as increasing our knowledge of mechanisms controlling morphogenesis and tumorigenesis. PMID:12587927

Photoelectron Energy Loss in Al(002) Revisited: Retrieval of the Single Plasmon Loss Energy Distribution by a Fourier Transform Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santana, Victor Mancir da Silva; David, Denis; de Almeida, Jailton Souza; Godet, Christian

2018-06-01

A Fourier transform (FT) algorithm is proposed to retrieve the energy loss function (ELF) of solid surfaces from experimental X-ray photoelectron spectra. The intensity measured over a broad energy range towards lower kinetic energies results from convolution of four spectral distributions: photoemission line shape, multiple plasmon loss probability, X-ray source line structure and Gaussian broadening of the photoelectron analyzer. The FT of the measured XPS spectrum, including the zero-loss peak and all inelastic scattering mechanisms, being a mathematical function of the respective FT of X-ray source, photoemission line shape, multiple plasmon loss function, and Gaussian broadening of the photoelectron analyzer, the proposed algorithm gives straightforward access to the bulk ELF and effective dielectric function of the solid, assuming identical ELF for intrinsic and extrinsic plasmon excitations. This method is applied to aluminum single crystal Al(002) where the photoemission line shape has been computed accurately beyond the Doniach-Sunjic approximation using the Mahan-Wertheim-Citrin approach which takes into account the density of states near the Fermi level; the only adjustable parameters are the singularity index and the broadening energy D (inverse hole lifetime). After correction for surface plasmon excitations, the q-averaged bulk loss function, q , of Al(002) differs from the optical value Im[- 1 / ɛ( E, q = 0)] and is well described by the Lindhard-Mermin dispersion relation. A quality criterion of the inversion algorithm is given by the capability of observing weak interband transitions close to the zero-loss peak, namely at 0.65 and 1.65 eV in ɛ( E, q) as found in optical spectra and ab initio calculations of aluminum.

Photoelectron Energy Loss in Al(002) Revisited: Retrieval of the Single Plasmon Loss Energy Distribution by a Fourier Transform Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santana, Victor Mancir da Silva; David, Denis; de Almeida, Jailton Souza; Godet, Christian

2018-04-01

A Fourier transform (FT) algorithm is proposed to retrieve the energy loss function (ELF) of solid surfaces from experimental X-ray photoelectron spectra. The intensity measured over a broad energy range towards lower kinetic energies results from convolution of four spectral distributions: photoemission line shape, multiple plasmon loss probability, X-ray source line structure and Gaussian broadening of the photoelectron analyzer. The FT of the measured XPS spectrum, including the zero-loss peak and all inelastic scattering mechanisms, being a mathematical function of the respective FT of X-ray source, photoemission line shape, multiple plasmon loss function, and Gaussian broadening of the photoelectron analyzer, the proposed algorithm gives straightforward access to the bulk ELF and effective dielectric function of the solid, assuming identical ELF for intrinsic and extrinsic plasmon excitations. This method is applied to aluminum single crystal Al(002) where the photoemission line shape has been computed accurately beyond the Doniach-Sunjic approximation using the Mahan-Wertheim-Citrin approach which takes into account the density of states near the Fermi level; the only adjustable parameters are the singularity index and the broadening energy D (inverse hole lifetime). After correction for surface plasmon excitations, the q-averaged bulk loss function, q , of Al(002) differs from the optical value Im[- 1 / ɛ(E, q = 0)] and is well described by the Lindhard-Mermin dispersion relation. A quality criterion of the inversion algorithm is given by the capability of observing weak interband transitions close to the zero-loss peak, namely at 0.65 and 1.65 eV in ɛ(E, q) as found in optical spectra and ab initio calculations of aluminum.

Map showing flood and surface water information in the Sugar House quadrangle, Salt Lake County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Horn, Richard; Fields, F.K.

1974-01-01

In the past man has built on land that might be covered by floodwaters, with little consideration of the consequences. The result has been disastrous to those in the path of floodwaters and has cost the loss of thousands of lives and untold billions of dollars in property damage in the United States. Salt Lake County, of which the Sugar House quadrangle is a part, has had many floods in the past and can be expected to have more in the future. Construction has taken place in filled or dried-up marshes and lakes, in spring areas, and even in stream channels. Lack of prior knowledge of these and other forms of surface water (water at the surface of the ground) can increase construction and maintenance costs significantly.The map shows the area that probably will be covered by floods at least once in every 100 years on the long-term average (unit IRF, intermediate regional flood), the area that probably will be covered by floods from the worst possible combination of very wet weather and high streamflow reasonably expected of the area (unit SPF, standard project flood), the mapped extent of streamflow by channel shifting or flooding in the past 5,000 years (unit fa), and the probable maximum extent of damaging flash floods and mudflows from small valleys in the Wasatch Range. The map also shows the location of water at the surface of the ground: lakes, streams, springs, weep holes, canals, and reservoirs. Lakes and marshes that existed within the past 100 years, but now are drained, filled, or dried up, are also shown.The following examples show that the presence of water can be desirable or undesirable, depending on how the water occurs. Floods, the most spectacular form of surface water, may result in great property damage and loss of life. Lakes normally are beneficial, in that they may support plant growth and provide habitats for fish and other wildlife, provide water for livestock, and can be used for recreation. Springs may or may not be desirable: they may provide a source of water for domestic or stock use but are undesirable if they appear in a foundation excavation for a building. Thus, the location of areas that may be affected by floods and other surface water is important to people concerned with land-use planning, zoning, and legislation, and with the environment in which we must live.

Optimization of armored spherical tanks for storage on the lunar surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bents, D. J.; Knight, D. A.

1992-01-01

A redundancy strategy for reducing micrometeroid armoring mass is investigated, with application to cryogenic reactant storage for a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) on the lunar surface. In that micrometeoroid environment, the cryogenic fuel must be protected from loss due to tank puncture. The tankage must have a sufficiently high probability of survival over the length of the mission so that the probability of system failure due to tank puncture is low compared to the other mission risk factors. Assuming that a single meteoroid penetration can cause a storage tank to lose its contents, two means are available to raise the probability of surviving micrometeoroid attack to the desired level. One can armor the tanks to a thickness sufficient to reduce probability of penetration of any tank to the desired level or add extra capacity in the form of spare tanks that results in survival of a given number out of the ensemble at the desired level. A combination of these strategies (armoring and redundancy) is investigated. The objective is to find the optimum combination which yields the lowest shielding mass per cubic meter of surviving fuel out of the original ensemble. The investigation found that, for the volumes of fuel associated with multikilowatt class cryo storage RFC's, and the armoring methodology and meteoroid models used, storage should be fragmented into small individual tanks. Larger installations (more fuel) pay less of a shielding penalty than small installations. For the same survival probability over the same time period, larger volumes will require less armoring mass per unit volume protected.

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Roll Damping Derivatives from Generalized Lifting-Surface Theory and Wind Tunnel Forced-Oscillation Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pototzky, Anthony S; Murphy, Patrick C.

2014-01-01

Improving aerodynamic models for adverse loss-of-control conditions in flight is an area being researched under the NASA Aviation Safety Program. Aerodynamic models appropriate for loss of control conditions require a more general mathematical representation to predict nonlinear unsteady behaviors. As more general aerodynamic models are studied that include nonlinear higher order effects, the possibility of measurements that confound aerodynamic and structural responses are probable. In this study an initial step is taken to look at including structural flexibility in analysis of rigid-body forced-oscillation testing that accounts for dynamic rig, sting and balance flexibility. Because of the significant testing required and associated costs in a general study, it makes sense to capitalize on low cost analytical methods where possible, especially where structural flexibility can be accounted for by a low cost method. This paper provides an initial look at using linear lifting surface theory applied to rigid-body aircraft roll forced-oscillation tests.

A Limited Comparison of the Thermal Durability of Polyimide Candidate Matrix Polymers with PMR-15

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, Kenneth J.; Papadopoulos, Demetrios S.; Scheiman, Daniel A.; Inghram, Linda L.; McCorkle, Linda S.; Klans, Ojars V.

2003-01-01

Studies were conducted with six different candidate high-temperature neat matrix resin specimens of varied geometric shapes to investigate the mechanisms involved in the thermal degradation of polyimides like PMR-15. The metrics for assessing the quality of these candidates were chosen to be glass transition temperature (T(sub g)), thermo-oxidative stability, dynamic mechanical properties, microstructural changes, and dimensional stability. The processing and mechanical properties were not investigated in the study reported herein. The dimensional changes and surface layer growth were measured and recorded. The data were in agreement with earlier published data. An initial weight increase reaction was observed to be dominating at the lower temperatures. However, at the more elevated temperatures, the weight loss reactions were prevalent and probably masked the weight gain reaction. These data confirmed the findings of the existence of an initial weight gain reaction previously reported. Surface- and core-dependent weight losses were shown to control the polymer degradation at the higher temperatures.

Impact of autoclave sterilization on the activity and structure of formulated heparin.

PubMed

Beaudet, Julie M; Weyers, Amanda; Solakyildirim, Kemal; Yang, Bo; Takieddin, Majde; Mousa, Shaker; Zhang, Fuming; Linhardt, Robert J

2011-08-01

The stability of a formulated heparin was examined during its sterilization by autoclaving. A new method to follow loss in heparin binding to the serine protease inhibitor, antithrombin III, and the serine protease, thrombin, was developed using a surface plasmon resonance competitive binding assay. This loss in binding affinity correlated well with loss in antifactor IIa (thrombin) activity as well as antifactor Xa activity as measured using conventional amidolytic assays. Autoclaving also resulted in a modest breakdown of the heparin backbone as confirmed by a slight reduction in number-averaged and weight-averaged molecular weight and an increase in polydispersity. Although no clear changes were observed by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, disaccharide composition analysis using high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry suggested that loss of selected sulfo groups had taken place. It is this sulfo group loss that probably accounts for a decrease in the binding of autoclaved heparin to antithrombin III and thrombin as well as the observed decrease in its amidolytic activity. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Surface Passivation for Reliable Measurement of Bulk Electronic Properties of Heterojunction Devices.

PubMed

Bissig, Benjamin; Guerra-Nunez, Carlos; Carron, Romain; Nishiwaki, Shiro; La Mattina, Fabio; Pianezzi, Fabian; Losio, Paolo A; Avancini, Enrico; Reinhard, Patrick; Haass, Stefan G; Lingg, Martina; Feurer, Thomas; Utke, Ivo; Buecheler, Stephan; Tiwari, Ayodhya N

2016-10-01

Quantum efficiency measurements of state of the art Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 (CIGS) thin film solar cells reveal current losses in the near infrared spectral region. These losses can be ascribed to inadequate optical absorption or poor collection of photogenerated charge carriers. Insight on the limiting mechanism is crucial for the development of more efficient devices. The electron beam induced current measurement technique applied on device cross-sections promises an experimental access to depth resolved information about the charge carrier collection probability. Here, this technique is used to show that charge carrier collection in CIGS deposited by multistage co-evaporation at low temperature is efficient over the optically active region and collection losses are minor as compared to the optical ones. Implications on the favorable absorber design are discussed. Furthermore, it is observed that the measurement is strongly affected by cross-section surface recombination and an accurate determination of the collection efficiency is not possible. Therefore it is proposed and shown that the use of an Al 2 O 3 layer deposited onto the cleaved cross-section significantly improves the accuracy of the measurement by reducing the surface recombination. A model for the passivation mechanism is presented and the passivation concept is extended to other solar cell technologies such as CdTe and Cu 2 (Zn,Sn)(S,Se) 4 . © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Loss of Water to Space from Mars: Processes and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, D. M.

2001-12-01

One of the major sinks for water on Mars is the loss to space. This occurs via a complex series of processes that transport the individual atoms to the upper atmosphere, where several escape mechanisms remove them. Hydrogen and deuterium are lost primarily by Jeans escape. Non-thermal processes also remove H and D, but are only important in determining D loss at solar minimum under modern conditions. The present H loss rate is equivalent to the loss of 10-3~pr-\\micron~yr-1 of water. The loss of oxygen is more complicated. The three main processes are indirect (or ionospheric) sputtering, solar wind pickup of O+, and O2+ dissociative recombination. Their relative importance has varied over the history of Mars. The combined effect of the O loss processes is to remove a ~ 50~m global layer of water over the last 3.5 Gyr. Based on photochemical modeling, the loss of oxygen and hydrogen are balanced (over geological timescales) by a feedback process. During the early history of Mars, impact erosion and hydrodynamic blow-off may have removed significant water. But, it is difficult to estimate their quantitative effects. The transport of individual H, D and O atoms to the exosphere where they can escape is not completely understood. It occurs primarily via intermediate species, H2, HD, O2 and CO2. The H2 and HD are formed by photolysis of water and the odd hydrogen photochemistry. One open issue is the mechanism regulating the partitioning of D between HDO and HD (which controls the supply of D available for escape from the exosphere). The various loss processes isotopically enrich Martian water since the exospheric escape source region is depleted. Jeans escape and the transport from the lower atmosphere further fractionate hydrogen, the most useful isotopic system. Based on recent observations, the D/H fractionation factor, F ~ 0.02. Measurements of atmospheric water vapor indicate it is enriched in deuterium, with a D/H ratio ~ 5 times the terrestrial value. Since most of the water on Mars is likely to be in the form of ice, it is presumably further fractionated by ~ 0.8 due to ice/water vapor interactions. This yields an effective D/H enrichment of ~ 7 for reservoirs in equilibrium with the atmosphere. From a loss to space point of view, Martian water can be divided into three reservoirs. The first is the thin, 10 pr-\\micron, atmospheric water. The second is a global exchangeable reservoir in long term isotopic equilibrium with the atmosphere. This probably encompasses the polar caps, ice in polar layered deposits and any other near surface ice or adsorbed water. The third, more speculative, reservoir is a non-exchanging reservoir (a deep sub-surface cryosphere). In addition, due to the small size of the atmospheric reservoir, difficulty in isotopically equilibrating it with the entire exchangeable reservoir, and the relatively rapid H2 loss rate, there is also an intermediate exchangeable reservoir of ~ 4~mm. This is probably either a surface layer on the polar caps or near surface ice deposits. By assuming an initial terrestrial D/H ratio for Martian water (based on condritic meteorites) and a loss to space of ~ 50~m (based on the total O loss), the size of the exchangeable reservoir can be estimated. Two conceptual models are possible, depending on whether or not the non-exchangeable reservoir replenishes the exchangeable one. Quantitatively, the two models yield almost identical reservoir sizes, ~ 9~m (about the size of the northern polar cap). If, due to slow rate of isotopic diffusion in ice, the exchangeable reservoir actually has the same isotopic enrichment as the atmosphere, it would contain ~ 12~m of water.

Sticking and recombination of the SiH 3 radical on hydrogenated amorphous silicon: The catalytic effect of diborane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrin, Jérôme; Takeda, Yoshihiko; Hirano, Naoto; Takeuchi, Yoshiaki; Matsuda, Akihisa

1989-03-01

The deposition rate of hydrogenated amorphous silicon films in SiH 4 glow-discharge is drastically enhanced upon addition of B 2H 6 when the gas-phase concentration exceeds 10 -4. This cannot be attributed to gas-phase reactions and must be interpreted as an increase of the sticking probability of the dominant SiH 3 radical. However, the total surface loss probability ( β) of SiH 3 which includes both sticking ( s) and recombination ( γ) increases only above 10 -2 B 2H 6 concentration, which reveals that between 10 -4 and 10 -2 the ratio {s}/{β} increases. A precursor-state model is proposed in which SiH 3 first physisorbs on the H-covered surface and migrates until it recombines, or chemisorbs on a free dangling bond site. At a typical deposition temperature of 200° C, the only mechanism of creation of dangling bonds in the absence of B 2H 6 is precisely the recombination of SiH 3 as SiH 4 by H abstraction, which limits the sticking probability to a fraction of β. This restriction is overcome with the help of hydroboron radicals, presumably BH 3, which catalyze H 2 desorption.

In vivo assessing of nanometric changes on the surface of whole tomatoes that have been inoculated with Candida guilliermondii yeast.

PubMed

Infante, Esperanza Del Pilar

2014-08-01

The cuticle of plants that covers the epidermis of cells, an interface between the fruit and the environment, has an important role to play in fruit quality because it prevents water loss and mechanical damage while simultaneously forming a barrier as it prevents phytopathogens from entering the fruit. All these factors give rise to flaws in the appearance of the fruit, thus contributing to marketing problems in the form of financial loss. In the search for solutions to some of these problems, certain biocontrolling yeasts have been introduced in the last few years. In the study described here, the changes observed on the surface of the whole tomato were evaluated in vivo during the first 72 h after inoculation by spraying Candida guilliermondii yeast onto the fruit's surface. The measurements were taken on a nanometric scale using atomic force microscopy; images were created in both contact and tapping modes. The results showed diminished roughness of the surface, which could contribute to reduced phytopathogen adherence due to the thinner contact area. These results furthermore showed that a yeast biofilm was formed on the fruit which probably helps to improve water retention inside the fruit. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

Loss Aversion in the Classroom: A Nudge towards a Better Grade?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grijalva, Therese; Koford, Brandon C.; Parkhurst, Gregory

2018-01-01

Using data from 499 students over 12 sections, 2 courses, and 3 instructors, we estimate the effect of loss aversion on the probability of turning in extra credit assignments and the effect on the overall grade. Regression results indicate no effect of loss aversion on the probability of turning in extra credit assignments and no effect on a…

DISCOUNTING OF DELAYED AND PROBABILISTIC LOSSES OVER A WIDE RANGE OF AMOUNTS

PubMed Central

Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel; Oliveira, Luís; Chang, Seo Eun

2014-01-01

The present study examined delay and probability discounting of hypothetical monetary losses over a wide range of amounts (from $20 to $500,000) in order to determine how amount affects the parameters of the hyperboloid discounting function. In separate conditions, college students chose between immediate payments and larger, delayed payments and between certain payments and larger, probabilistic payments. The hyperboloid function accurately described both types of discounting, and amount of loss had little or no systematic effect on the degree of discounting. Importantly, the amount of loss also had little systematic effect on either the rate parameter or the exponent of the delay and probability discounting functions. The finding that the parameters of the hyperboloid function remain relatively constant across a wide range of amounts of delayed and probabilistic loss stands in contrast to the robust amount effects observed with delayed and probabilistic rewards. At the individual level, the degree to which delayed losses were discounted was uncorrelated with the degree to which probabilistic losses were discounted, and delay and probability loaded on two separate factors, similar to what is observed with delayed and probabilistic rewards. Taken together, these findings argue that although delay and probability discounting involve fundamentally different decision-making mechanisms, nevertheless the discounting of delayed and probabilistic losses share an insensitivity to amount that distinguishes it from the discounting of delayed and probabilistic gains. PMID:24745086

Classical theory of atom-surface scattering: The rainbow effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miret-Artés, Salvador; Pollak, Eli

2012-07-01

The scattering of heavy atoms and molecules from surfaces is oftentimes dominated by classical mechanics. A large body of experiments have gathered data on the angular distributions of the scattered species, their energy loss distribution, sticking probability, dependence on surface temperature and more. For many years these phenomena have been considered theoretically in the framework of the “washboard model” in which the interaction of the incident particle with the surface is described in terms of hard wall potentials. Although this class of models has helped in elucidating some of the features it left open many questions such as: true potentials are clearly not hard wall potentials, it does not provide a realistic framework for phonon scattering, and it cannot explain the incident angle and incident energy dependence of rainbow scattering, nor can it provide a consistent theory for sticking. In recent years we have been developing a classical perturbation theory approach which has provided new insight into the dynamics of atom-surface scattering. The theory includes both surface corrugation as well as interaction with surface phonons in terms of harmonic baths which are linearly coupled to the system coordinates. This model has been successful in elucidating many new features of rainbow scattering in terms of frictions and bath fluctuations or noise. It has also given new insight into the origins of asymmetry in atomic scattering from surfaces. New phenomena deduced from the theory include friction induced rainbows, energy loss rainbows, a theory of super-rainbows, and more. In this review we present the classical theory of atom-surface scattering as well as extensions and implications for semiclassical scattering and the further development of a quantum theory of surface scattering. Special emphasis is given to the inversion of scattering data into information on the particle-surface interactions.

Classical theory of atom-surface scattering: The rainbow effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miret-Artés, Salvador; Pollak, Eli

The scattering of heavy atoms and molecules from surfaces is oftentimes dominated by classical mechanics. A large body of experiments have gathered data on the angular distributions of the scattered species, their energy loss distribution, sticking probability, dependence on surface temperature and more. For many years these phenomena have been considered theoretically in the framework of the "washboard model" in which the interaction of the incident particle with the surface is described in terms of hard wall potentials. Although this class of models has helped in elucidating some of the features it left open many questions such as: true potentials are clearly not hard wall potentials, it does not provide a realistic framework for phonon scattering, and it cannot explain the incident angle and incident energy dependence of rainbow scattering, nor can it provide a consistent theory for sticking. In recent years we have been developing a classical perturbation theory approach which has provided new insight into the dynamics of atom-surface scattering. The theory includes both surface corrugation as well as interaction with surface phonons in terms of harmonic baths which are linearly coupled to the system coordinates. This model has been successful in elucidating many new features of rainbow scattering in terms of frictions and bath fluctuations or noise. It has also given new insight into the origins of asymmetry in atomic scattering from surfaces. New phenomena deduced from the theory include friction induced rainbows, energy loss rainbows, a theory of super-rainbows, and more. In this review we present the classical theory of atom-surface scattering as well as extensions and implications for semiclassical scattering and the further development of a quantum theory of surface scattering. Special emphasis is given to the inversion of scattering data into information on the particle-surface interactions.

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Quantum theory of spontaneous and stimulated emission of surface plasmons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Archambault, Alexandre; Marquier, Francois; Greffet, Jean-Jacques

2010-07-15

We introduce a quantization scheme that can be applied to surface waves propagating along a plane interface. An important result is the derivation of the energy of the surface wave for dispersive nonlossy media without invoking any specific model for the dielectric constant. Working in Coulomb's gauge, we use a modal representation of the fields. Each mode can be associated with a quantum harmonic oscillator. We have applied the formalism to derive quantum mechanically the spontaneous emission rate of surface plasmon by a two-level system. The result is in very good agreement with Green's tensor approach in the nonlossy case.more » Green's approach allows also to account for losses, so that the limitations of a quantum approach of surface plasmons are clearly defined. Finally, the issue of stimulated versus spontaneous emission has been addressed. Because of the increasing density of states near the asymptote of the dispersion relation, it is quantitatively shown that the stimulated emission probability is too small to obtain gain in this frequency region.« less

Parallel Low-Loss Measurement of Multiple Atomic Qubits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Minho; Ebert, Matthew F.; Walker, Thad G.; Saffman, M.

2017-11-01

We demonstrate low-loss measurement of the hyperfine ground state of rubidium atoms by state dependent fluorescence detection in a dipole trap array of five sites. The presence of atoms and their internal states are minimally altered by utilizing circularly polarized probe light and a strictly controlled quantization axis. We achieve mean state detection fidelity of 97% without correcting for imperfect state preparation or background losses, and 98.7% when corrected. After state detection and correction for background losses, the probability of atom loss due to the state measurement is <2 % and the initial hyperfine state is preserved with >98 % probability.

Effects of Statewide Job Losses on Adolescent Suicide-Related Behaviors

PubMed Central

Ananat, Elizabeth Oltmans; Gibson-Davis, Christina M.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the impact of statewide job loss on adolescent suicide-related behaviors. Methods. We used 1997 to 2009 data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the effects of statewide job loss on adolescents’ suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and suicide plans. Probit regression models controlled for demographic characteristics, state of residence, and year; samples were divided according to gender and race/ethnicity. Results. Statewide job losses during the year preceding the survey increased girls’ probability of suicidal ideation and suicide plans and non-Hispanic Black adolescents’ probability of suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and suicide attempts. Job losses among 1% of a state’s working-age population increased the probability of girls and Blacks reporting suicide-related behaviors by 2 to 3 percentage points. Job losses did not affect the suicide-related behaviors of boys, non-Hispanic Whites, or Hispanics. The results were robust to the inclusion of other state economic characteristics. Conclusions. As are adults, adolescents are affected by economic downturns. Our findings show that statewide job loss increases adolescent girls’ and non-Hispanic Blacks’ suicide-related behaviors. PMID:25122027

Effects of delay and probability combinations on discounting in humans

PubMed Central

Cox, David J.; Dallery, Jesse

2017-01-01

To determine discount rates, researchers typically adjust the amount of an immediate or certain option relative to a delayed or uncertain option. Because this adjusting amount method can be relatively time consuming, researchers have developed more efficient procedures. One such procedure is a 5-trial adjusting delay procedure, which measures the delay at which an amount of money loses half of its value (e.g., $1000 is valued at $500 with a 10-year delay to its receipt). Experiment 1 (n = 212) used 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to measure delay discounting of losses, probabilistic gains, and probabilistic losses. Experiment 2 (n = 98) assessed combined probabilistic and delayed alternatives. In both experiments, we compared results from 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to traditional adjusting amount procedures. Results suggest both procedures produced similar rates of probability and delay discounting in six out of seven comparisons. A magnitude effect consistent with previous research was observed for probabilistic gains and losses, but not for delayed losses. Results also suggest that delay and probability interact to determine the value of money. Five-trial methods may allow researchers to assess discounting more efficiently as well as study more complex choice scenarios. PMID:27498073

An accurate full-dimensional potential energy surface for H-Au(111): Importance of nonadiabatic electronic excitation in energy transfer and adsorption.

PubMed

Janke, Svenja M; Auerbach, Daniel J; Wodtke, Alec M; Kandratsenka, Alexander

2015-09-28

We have constructed a potential energy surface (PES) for H-atoms interacting with fcc Au(111) based on fitting the analytic form of the energy from Effective Medium Theory (EMT) to ab initio energy values calculated with density functional theory. The fit used input from configurations of the H-Au system with Au atoms at their lattice positions as well as configurations with the Au atoms displaced from their lattice positions. It reproduces the energy, in full dimension, not only for the configurations used as input but also for a large number of additional configurations derived from ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) trajectories at finite temperature. Adiabatic molecular dynamics simulations on this PES reproduce the energy loss behavior of AIMD. EMT also provides expressions for the embedding electron density, which enabled us to develop a self-consistent approach to simulate nonadiabatic electron-hole pair excitation and their effect on the motion of the incident H-atoms. For H atoms with an energy of 2.7 eV colliding with Au, electron-hole pair excitation is by far the most important energy loss pathway, giving an average energy loss ≈3 times that of the adiabatic case. This increased energy loss enhances the probability of the H-atom remaining on or in the Au slab by a factor of 2. The most likely outcome for H-atoms that are not scattered also depends prodigiously on the energy transfer mechanism; for the nonadiabatic case, more than 50% of the H-atoms which do not scatter are adsorbed on the surface, while for the adiabatic case more than 50% pass entirely through the 4 layer simulation slab.

Hydrogen collisions with transition metal surfaces: Universal electronically nonadiabatic adsorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorenkamp, Yvonne; Jiang, Hongyan; Köckert, Hansjochen; Hertl, Nils; Kammler, Marvin; Janke, Svenja M.; Kandratsenka, Alexander; Wodtke, Alec M.; Bünermann, Oliver

2018-01-01

Inelastic scattering of H and D atoms from the (111) surfaces of six fcc transition metals (Au, Pt, Ag, Pd, Cu, and Ni) was investigated, and in each case, excitation of electron-hole pairs dominates the inelasticity. The results are very similar for all six metals. Differences in the average kinetic energy losses between metals can mainly be attributed to different efficiencies in the coupling to phonons due to the different masses of the metal atoms. The experimental observations can be reproduced by molecular dynamics simulations based on full-dimensional potential energy surfaces and including electronic excitations by using electronic friction in the local density friction approximation. The determining factors for the energy loss are the electron density at the surface, which is similar for all six metals, and the mass ratio between the impinging atoms and the surface atoms. Details of the electronic structure of the metal do not play a significant role. The experimentally validated simulations are used to explore sticking over a wide range of incidence conditions. We find that the sticking probability increases for H and D collisions near normal incidence—consistent with a previously reported penetration-resurfacing mechanism. The sticking probability for H or D on any of these metals may be represented as a simple function of the incidence energy, Ein, metal atom mass, M, and incidence angle, 𝜗i n. S =(S0+a ṡEi n+b ṡM ) *(1 -h (𝜗i n-c ) (1 -cos(𝜗 i n-c ) d ṡh (Ei n-e ) (Ei n-e ) ) ) , where h is the Heaviside step function and for H, S0 = 1.081, a = -0.125 eV-1, b =-8.40 ṡ1 0-4 u-1, c = 28.88°, d = 1.166 eV-1, and e = 0.442 eV; whereas for D, S0 = 1.120, a = -0.124 eV-1, b =-1.20 ṡ1 0-3 u-1, c = 28.62°, d = 1.196 eV-1, and e = 0.474 eV.

Spatial and indoor/outdoor gradients in urban concentrations of ultrafine particles and PM2.5 mass and chemical components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zauli Sajani, Stefano; Ricciardelli, Isabella; Trentini, Arianna; Bacco, Dimitri; Maccone, Claudio; Castellazzi, Silvia; Lauriola, Paolo; Poluzzi, Vanes; Harrison, Roy M.

2015-02-01

In order to investigate relationships between outdoor air pollution and concentrations indoors, a novel design of experiment has been conducted at two sites, one heavily trafficked and the other residential. The novel design aspect involves the introduction of air directly to the centre of an unoccupied room by use of a fan and duct giving a controlled air exchange rate and allowing an evaluation of particle losses purely due to uptake on indoor surfaces without the losses during penetration of the building envelope which affect most measurement programmes. The rooms were unoccupied and free of indoor sources, and consequently reductions in particle concentration were due to deposition processes within the room alone. Measurements were made of indoor and outdoor concentrations of PM2.5, major chemical components and particle number size distributions. Despite the absence of penetration losses, indoor to outdoor ratios were very similar to those in other studies showing that deposition to indoor surfaces is likely to be the major loss process for indoor air. The results demonstrated a dramatic loss of nitrate in the indoor atmosphere as well as a selective loss of particles in the size range below 50 nm, in comparison to coarser particles. Depletion of indoor particles was greater during a period of cold weather with higher outdoor concentrations probably due to an enhancement of semi-volatile materials in the outdoor particulate matter. Indoor/outdoor ratios for PM2.5 were generally higher at the trafficked site than the residential site, but for particle number were generally lower, reflecting the different chemical composition and size distributions of particles at the two sites.

Potential short-term losses of N2O and N2 from high concentrations of biogas digestate in arable soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, Sebastian Rainer; Augustin, Jürgen; Wrage-Mönnig, Nicole; Jurasinski, Gerald; Gusovius, Bertram; Glatzel, Stephan

2017-09-01

Biogas digestate (BD) is increasingly used as organic fertilizer, but has a high potential for NH3 losses. Its proposed injection into soils as a countermeasure has been suggested to promote the generation of N2O, leading to a potential trade-off. Furthermore, the effect of high nutrient concentrations on N2 losses as they may appear after injection of BD into soil has not yet been evaluated. Hence, we performed an incubation experiment with soil cores in a helium-oxygen atmosphere to examine the influence of soil substrate (loamy sand, clayey silt), water-filled pore space (WFPS; 35, 55, 75 %) and application rate (0, 17.6 and 35.2 mL BD per soil core, 250 cm3) on the emission of N2O, N2 and CO2 after the usage of high loads of BD. To determine the potential capacity for gaseous losses, we applied anaerobic conditions by purging with helium for the last 24 h of incubation. Immediate N2O and N2 emissions as well as the N2 / (N2O+N2) product ratio depended on soil type and increased with WFPS, indicating a crucial role of soil gas diffusivity for the formation and emission of nitrogenous gases in agricultural soils. However, emissions did not increase with the application rate of BD. This is probably due to an inhibitory effect of the high NH4+ content of BD on nitrification. Our results suggest a larger potential for N2O formation immediately following BD injection in the fine-textured clayey silt compared to the coarse loamy sand. By contrast, the loamy sand showed a higher potential for N2 production under anaerobic conditions. Our results suggest that short-term N losses of N2O and N2 after injection may be higher than probable losses of NH3 following surface application of BD.

14 CFR 440.7 - Determination of maximum probable loss.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... determine the maximum probable loss (MPL) from covered claims by a third party for bodily injury or property... licensee, or permittee, if interagency consultation may delay issuance of the MPL determination. (c... after the MPL determination is issued. Any change in financial responsibility requirements as a result...

Hot-spot tectonics on Io

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcewen, A. S.

1985-01-01

The thesis is that extensional tectonics and low-angle detachment faults probably occur on Io in association with the hot spots. These processes may occur on a much shorter timescale on Ion than on Earth, so that Io could be a natural laboratory for the study of thermotectonics. Furthermore, studies of heat and detachment in crustal extension on Earth and the other terresrial planets (especially Venus and Mars) may provide analogs to processes on Io. The geology of Io is dominated by volcanism and hot spots, most likely the result of tidal heating. Hot spots cover 1 to 2% of Io's surface, radiating at temperatures typically from 200 to 400 K, and occasionally up to 700K. Heat loss from the largest hot spots on Io, such as Loki Patera, is about 300 times the heat loss from Yellowstone, so a tremendous quantity of energy is available for volcanic and tectonic work. Active volcanism on Io results in a resurfacing rate as high as 10 cm per year, yet many structural features are apparent on the surface. Therefore, the tectonics must be highly active.

Expansion of oxygen minimum zones may reduce available habitat for tropical pelagic fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stramma, Lothar; Prince, Eric D.; Schmidtko, Sunke; Luo, Jiangang; Hoolihan, John P.; Visbeck, Martin; Wallace, Douglas W. R.; Brandt, Peter; Körtzinger, Arne

2012-01-01

Climate model predictions and observations reveal regional declines in oceanic dissolved oxygen, which are probably influenced by global warming. Studies indicate ongoing dissolved oxygen depletion and vertical expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the tropical northeast Atlantic Ocean. OMZ shoaling may restrict the usable habitat of billfishes and tunas to a narrow surface layer. We report a decrease in the upper ocean layer exceeding 3.5mll-1 dissolved oxygen at a rate of <=1myr-1 in the tropical northeast Atlantic (0-25°N, 12-30°W), amounting to an annual habitat loss of ~5.95×1013m3, or 15% for the period 1960-2010. Habitat compression and associated potential habitat loss was validated using electronic tagging data from 47 blue marlin. This phenomenon increases vulnerability to surface fishing gear for billfishes and tunas, and may be associated with a 10-50% worldwide decline of pelagic predator diversity. Further expansion of the Atlantic OMZ along with overfishing may threaten the sustainability of these valuable pelagic fisheries and marine ecosystems.

Mathematical Analysis of Space Radiator Segmenting for Increased Reliability and Reduced Mass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juhasz, Albert J.

2001-01-01

Spacecraft for long duration deep space missions will need to be designed to survive micrometeoroid bombardment of their surfaces some of which may actually be punctured. To avoid loss of the entire mission the damage due to such punctures must be limited to small, localized areas. This is especially true for power system radiators, which necessarily feature large surface areas to reject heat at relatively low temperature to the space environment by thermal radiation. It may be intuitively obvious that if a space radiator is composed of a large number of independently operating segments, such as heat pipes, a random micrometeoroid puncture will result only in the loss of the punctured segment, and not the entire radiator. Due to the redundancy achieved by independently operating segments, the wall thickness and consequently the weight of such segments can be drastically reduced. Probability theory is used to estimate the magnitude of such weight reductions as the number of segments is increased. An analysis of relevant parameter values required for minimum mass segmented radiators is also included.

Prospect theory reflects selective allocation of attention.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Schulte-Mecklenbeck, Michael; Murphy, Ryan O; Hertwig, Ralph

2018-02-01

There is a disconnect in the literature between analyses of risky choice based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) and work on predecisional information processing. One likely reason is that for expectation models (e.g., CPT), it is often assumed that people behaved only as if they conducted the computations leading to the predicted choice and that the models are thus mute regarding information processing. We suggest that key psychological constructs in CPT, such as loss aversion and outcome and probability sensitivity, can be interpreted in terms of attention allocation. In two experiments, we tested hypotheses about specific links between CPT parameters and attentional regularities. Experiment 1 used process tracing to monitor participants' predecisional attention allocation to outcome and probability information. As hypothesized, individual differences in CPT's loss-aversion, outcome-sensitivity, and probability-sensitivity parameters (estimated from participants' choices) were systematically associated with individual differences in attention allocation to outcome and probability information. For instance, loss aversion was associated with the relative attention allocated to loss and gain outcomes, and a more strongly curved weighting function was associated with less attention allocated to probabilities. Experiment 2 manipulated participants' attention to losses or gains, causing systematic differences in CPT's loss-aversion parameter. This result indicates that attention allocation can to some extent cause choice regularities that are captured by CPT. Our findings demonstrate an as-if model's capacity to reflect characteristics of information processing. We suggest that the observed CPT-attention links can be harnessed to inform the development of process models of risky choice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

High resolution imaging of latent fingerprints by localized corrosion on brass surfaces.

PubMed

Goddard, Alex J; Hillman, A Robert; Bond, John W

2010-01-01

The Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) is capable of imaging fingerprint ridges on polished brass substrates at an unprecedented level of detail. While exposure to elevated humidity at ambient or slightly raised temperatures does not change the image appreciably, subsequent brief heating in a flame results in complete loss of the sweat deposit and the appearance of pits and trenches. Localized elemental analysis (using EDAX, coupled with SEM imaging) shows the presence of the constituents of salt in the initial deposits. Together with water and atmospheric oxygen--and with thermal enhancement--these are capable of driving a surface corrosion process. This process is sufficiently localized that it has the potential to generate a durable negative topographical image of the fingerprint. AFM examination of surface regions between ridges revealed small deposits (probably microscopic "spatter" of sweat components or transferred particulates) that may ultimately limit the level of ridge detail analysis.

Neutron lifetime measurements with a large gravitational trap for ultracold neutrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serebrov, A. P.; Kolomensky, E. A.; Fomin, A. K.; Krasnoshchekova, I. A.; Vassiljev, A. V.; Prudnikov, D. M.; Shoka, I. V.; Chechkin, A. V.; Chaikovskiy, M. E.; Varlamov, V. E.; Ivanov, S. N.; Pirozhkov, A. N.; Geltenbort, P.; Zimmer, O.; Jenke, T.; Van der Grinten, M.; Tucker, M.

2018-05-01

Neutron lifetime is one of the most important physical constants: it determines parameters of the weak interaction and predictions of primordial nucleosynthesis theory. There remains the unsolved problem of a 3.9σ discrepancy between measurements of this lifetime using neutrons in beams and those with stored ultracold neutrons (UCN). In our experiment we measure the lifetime of neutrons trapped by Earth's gravity in an open-topped vessel. Two configurations of the trap geometry are used to change the mean frequency of UCN collisions with the surfaces; this is achieved by plunging an additional surface into the trap without breaking the vacuum. The trap walls are coated with a hydrogen-less fluorine-containing polymer to reduce losses of UCN. The stability of this coating over multiple thermal cycles between 80 and 300 K was tested. At 80 K, the probability of UCN loss due to collisions with the trap walls is just 1.5% of the probability of β decay. The free neutron lifetime is determined by extrapolation to an infinitely large trap with zero collision frequency. The result of these measurements is τn=881.5 ±0 .7stat ±0 .6syst s which is consistent with the conventional value of 880.2 ± 1.0 s presented by the Particle Data Group. Future prospects for this experiment are in further cooling to 10 K, which will lead to an improved accuracy of measurement. In conclusion we present an analysis of currently available data on various measurements of the neutron lifetime.

Water level dynamics in wetlands and nesting success of Black Terns in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilbert, A.T.; Servello, F.A.

2005-01-01

The Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) nests in freshwater wetlands that are prone to water level fluctuations, and nest losses to flooding are common. We examined temporal patterns in water levels at six sites with Black Tern colonies in Maine and determined probabilities of flood events and associated nest loss at Douglas Pond, the location of the largest breeding colony. Daily precipitation data from weather stations and water flow data from a flow gauge below Douglas Pond were obtained for 1960-1999. Information on nest losses from three floods at Douglas Pond in 1997-1999 were used to characterize small (6% nest loss), medium (56% nest loss) and large (94% nest loss) flood events, and we calculated probabilities of these three levels of flooding occurring at Douglas Pond using historic water levels data. Water levels generally decreased gradually during the nesting season at colony sites, except at Douglas Pond where water levels fluctuated substantially in response to rain events. Annual probabilities of small, medium, and large flood events were 68%, 35%, and 13% for nests initiated during 23 May-12 July, with similar probabilities for early (23 May-12 June) and late (13 June-12 July) periods. An index of potential nest loss indicated that medium floods at Douglas Pond had the greatest potential effect on nest success because they occurred relatively frequently and inundated large proportions of nests. Nest losses at other colonies were estimated to be approximately 30% of those at Douglas Pond. Nest losses to flooding appear to be common for the Black Tern in Maine and related to spring precipitation patterns, but ultimate effects on breeding productivity are uncertain.

Gain- and Loss-Related Brain Activation Are Associated with Information Search Differences in Risky Gambles: An fMRI and Eye-Tracking Study.

PubMed

Häusler, Alexander Niklas; Oroz Artigas, Sergio; Trautner, Peter; Weber, Bernd

2016-01-01

People differ in the way they approach and handle choices with unsure outcomes. In this study, we demonstrate that individual differences in the neural processing of gains and losses relates to attentional differences in the way individuals search for information in gambles. Fifty subjects participated in two independent experiments. Participants first completed an fMRI experiment involving financial gains and losses. Subsequently, they performed an eye-tracking experiment on binary choices between risky gambles, each displaying monetary outcomes and their respective probabilities. We find that individual differences in gain and loss processing relate to attention distribution. Individuals with a stronger reaction to gains in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex paid more attention to monetary amounts, while a stronger reaction in the ventral striatum to losses was correlated with an increased attention to probabilities. Reaction in the posterior cingulate cortex to losses was also found to correlate with an increased attention to probabilities. Our data show that individual differences in brain activity and differences in information search processes are closely linked.

Gain- and Loss-Related Brain Activation Are Associated with Information Search Differences in Risky Gambles: An fMRI and Eye-Tracking Study

PubMed Central

Trautner, Peter

2016-01-01

Abstract People differ in the way they approach and handle choices with unsure outcomes. In this study, we demonstrate that individual differences in the neural processing of gains and losses relates to attentional differences in the way individuals search for information in gambles. Fifty subjects participated in two independent experiments. Participants first completed an fMRI experiment involving financial gains and losses. Subsequently, they performed an eye-tracking experiment on binary choices between risky gambles, each displaying monetary outcomes and their respective probabilities. We find that individual differences in gain and loss processing relate to attention distribution. Individuals with a stronger reaction to gains in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex paid more attention to monetary amounts, while a stronger reaction in the ventral striatum to losses was correlated with an increased attention to probabilities. Reaction in the posterior cingulate cortex to losses was also found to correlate with an increased attention to probabilities. Our data show that individual differences in brain activity and differences in information search processes are closely linked. PMID:27679814

Reaction of gas phase OH with unsaturated self-assembled monolayers and relevance to atmospheric organic oxidations.

PubMed

Moussa, Samar G; Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J

2010-08-28

The kinetics and mechanisms of the reaction of gas phase OH radicals with organics on surfaces are of fundamental chemical interest, as well as relevant to understanding the degradation of organics on tropospheric surfaces or when they are components of airborne particles. We report here studies of the oxidation of a terminal alkene self-assembled monolayer (7-octenyltrichlorosilane, C8= SAM) on a germanium attenuated total reflectance crystal by OH radicals at a concentration of 2.1 x 10(5) cm(-3) at 1 atm total pressure and 298 K in air. Loss of the reactant SAM and the formation of surface products were followed in real time using infrared spectroscopy. From the rate of loss of the C=C bond, a reaction probability within experimental error of unity was derived. The products formed on the surface include organic nitrates and carbonyl compounds, with yields of 10 +/- 4% and < or = 7 +/- 4%, respectively, and there is evidence for the formation of organic products with C-O bonds such as alcohols, ethers and/or alkyl peroxides and possibly peroxynitrates. The yield of organic nitrates relative to carbonyl compounds is higher than expected based on analogous gas phase mechanisms, suggesting that the branching ratio for the RO(2) + NO reaction is shifted to favor the formation of organic nitrates when the reaction occurs on a surface. Water uptake onto the surface was only slightly enhanced upon oxidation, suggesting that oxidation per se cannot be taken as a predictor of increased hydrophilicity of atmospheric organics. These experiments indicate that the mechanisms for the surface reactions are different from gas phase reactions, but the OH oxidation of surface species will still be a significant contributor to determining their lifetimes in air.

Investigation of possibility of surface rupture derived from PFDHA and calculation of surface displacement based on dislocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.; Kitada, N.; Irikura, K.

2013-12-01

A probability of surface rupture is important to configure the seismic source, such as area sources or fault models, for a seismic hazard evaluation. In Japan, Takemura (1998) estimated the probability based on the historical earthquake data. Kagawa et al. (2004) evaluated the probability based on a numerical simulation of surface displacements. The estimated probability indicates a sigmoid curve and increases between Mj (the local magnitude defined and calculated by Japan Meteorological Agency) =6.5 and Mj=7.0. The probability of surface rupture is also used in a probabilistic fault displacement analysis (PFDHA). The probability is determined from the collected earthquake catalog, which were classified into two categories: with surface rupture or without surface rupture. The logistic regression is performed for the classified earthquake data. Youngs et al. (2003), Ross and Moss (2011) and Petersen et al. (2011) indicate the logistic curves of the probability of surface rupture by normal, reverse and strike-slip faults, respectively. Takao et al. (2013) shows the logistic curve derived from only Japanese earthquake data. The Japanese probability curve shows the sharply increasing in narrow magnitude range by comparison with other curves. In this study, we estimated the probability of surface rupture applying the logistic analysis to the surface displacement derived from a surface displacement calculation. A source fault was defined in according to the procedure of Kagawa et al. (2004), which determined a seismic moment from a magnitude and estimated the area size of the asperity and the amount of slip. Strike slip and reverse faults were considered as source faults. We applied Wang et al. (2003) for calculations. The surface displacements with defined source faults were calculated by varying the depth of the fault. A threshold value as 5cm of surface displacement was used to evaluate whether a surface rupture reach or do not reach to the surface. We carried out the logistic regression analysis to the calculated displacements, which were classified by the above threshold. The estimated probability curve indicated the similar trend to the result of Takao et al. (2013). The probability of revere faults is larger than that of strike slip faults. On the other hand, PFDHA results show different trends. The probability of reverse faults at higher magnitude is lower than that of strike slip and normal faults. Ross and Moss (2011) suggested that the sediment and/or rock over the fault compress and not reach the displacement to the surface enough. The numerical theory applied in this study cannot deal with a complex initial situation such as topography.

Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, Hao; Castelao, Renato M.; Rennermalm, Asa K.; Tedesco, Marco; Bracco, Annalisa; Yager, Patricia L.; Mote, Thomas L.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.

Exploring the effect of Al2O3 ALD coating on a high gradient ILC single-cell cavity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grigory Eremeev, Anne-Marie Valente, Andy Wu, Diefeng Gu

2012-07-01

Encouraged by work at Argonne National Lab, we investigated atomic layer deposition technique (ALD) for high gradient superconducting RF cavities at JLab with an ALD coating system of Old Dominion University located on the JLab site. The goal of this study was to look into the possibility of coating a dielectric layer on top of RF niobium surface at a lower temperature of 120 C as compared to ANL coatings at 200 C to preserve niobium pentoxide on niobium surface. The initial coatings showed complete, but non-uniform coatings of the surface with several areas exhibiting discoloration, which was probably duemore » to the temperature variation across the cavity surface. The initial coating showed a high RF losses, which were improved after discolored areas on the beam tubes were removed with HF rinse of the beam tubes only. The best result was 2 109 low field Q0 and Eacc = 18 MV/m limited by available power.« less

Effects of delay and probability combinations on discounting in humans.

PubMed

Cox, David J; Dallery, Jesse

2016-10-01

To determine discount rates, researchers typically adjust the amount of an immediate or certain option relative to a delayed or uncertain option. Because this adjusting amount method can be relatively time consuming, researchers have developed more efficient procedures. One such procedure is a 5-trial adjusting delay procedure, which measures the delay at which an amount of money loses half of its value (e.g., $1000 is valued at $500 with a 10-year delay to its receipt). Experiment 1 (n=212) used 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to measure delay discounting of losses, probabilistic gains, and probabilistic losses. Experiment 2 (n=98) assessed combined probabilistic and delayed alternatives. In both experiments, we compared results from 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to traditional adjusting amount procedures. Results suggest both procedures produced similar rates of probability and delay discounting in six out of seven comparisons. A magnitude effect consistent with previous research was observed for probabilistic gains and losses, but not for delayed losses. Results also suggest that delay and probability interact to determine the value of money. Five-trial methods may allow researchers to assess discounting more efficiently as well as study more complex choice scenarios. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parabolic features and the erosion rate on Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strom, Robert G.

1993-01-01

The impact cratering record on Venus consists of 919 craters covering 98 percent of the surface. These craters are remarkably well preserved, and most show pristine structures including fresh ejecta blankets. Only 35 craters (3.8 percent) have had their ejecta blankets embayed by lava and most of these occur in the Atla-Beta Regio region; an area thought to be recently active. parabolic features are associated with 66 of the 919 craters. These craters range in size from 6 to 105 km diameter. The parabolic features are thought to be the result of the deposition of fine-grained ejecta by winds in the dense venusian atmosphere. The deposits cover about 9 percent of the surface and none appear to be embayed by younger volcanic materials. However, there appears to be a paucity of these deposits in the Atla-Beta Regio region, and this may be due to the more recent volcanism in this area of Venus. Since parabolic features are probably fine-grain, wind-deposited ejecta, then all impact craters on Venus probably had these deposits at some time in the past. The older deposits have probably been either eroded or buried by eolian processes. Therefore, the present population of these features is probably associated with the most recent impact craters on the planet. Furthermore, the size/frequency distribution of craters with parabolic features is virtually identical to that of the total crater population. This suggests that there has been little loss of small parabolic features compared to large ones, otherwise there should be a significant and systematic paucity of craters with parabolic features with decreasing size compared to the total crater population. Whatever is erasing the parabolic features apparently does so uniformly regardless of the areal extent of the deposit. The lifetime of parabolic features and the eolian erosion rate on Venus can be estimated from the average age of the surface and the present population of parabolic features.

A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

2003-04-01

Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

Academic decision making and prospect theory.

PubMed

Mowrer, Robert R; Davidson, William B

2011-08-01

Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.

Dust and nutrient enrichment by wind erosion from Danish soils in dependence of tillage direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadian Behbahani, Ali; Fister, Wolfgang; Heckrath, Goswin; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

2016-04-01

Wind erosion is a selective process, which promotes erosion of fine particles. Therefore, it can be assumed that increasing erosion rates are generally associated with increasing loss of dust sized particles and nutrients. However, this selective process is strongly affected by the orientation and respective trapping efficiency of tillage ridges and furrows. Since tillage ridges are often the only protection measure available on poorly aggregated soils in absence of a protective vegetation cover, it is very important to know which orientation respective to the dominant wind direction provides best protection. This knowledge could be very helpful for planning erosion protection measures on fields with high wind erosion susceptibility. The main objective of this study, therefore, was to determine the effect of tillage direction on dust and nutrient mobilization by wind, using wind tunnel simulations. In order to assess the relationship between the enrichment ratio of specific particle sizes and the amount of eroded nutrients, three soils with loamy sand texture, but varying amounts of sand-sized particles, were selected. In addition, a soil with slightly less sand, but much higher organic matter content was chosen. The soils were tested with three different soil surface scenarios - flat surface, parallel tillage, perpendicular tillage. The parallel tillage operation experienced the greatest erosion rates, independent of soil type. Particles with D50 between 100-155 μm showed the greatest risk of erosion. However, due to a greater loss of dust sized particles from perpendicularly tilled surfaces, this wind-surface arrangement showed a significant increase in nutrient enrichment ratio compared to parallel tillage and flat surfaces. The main reason for this phenomenon is most probably the trapping of larger particles in the perpendicular furrows. This indicates that the highest rate of soil protection does not necessarily coincide with lowest soil nutrient losses and dust emissions. For the evaluation of protection measures on these soil types in Denmark it is, therefore, important to differentiate between their effectivity to reduce total soil erosion amount, dust emission, and nutrient loss.

Nutrient and dust enrichment in Danish wind erosion sediments for different tillage directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadian Behbahani, Ali; Fister, Wolfgang; Heckrath, Goswin; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

2015-04-01

More than 80% of the soil types in Denmark have a sandy texture. Denmark is also subject to strong offshore and onshore winds, therefore, Danish soils are considered especially vulnerable to wind erosion. Where conventional tillage operations are applied on poorly aggregated soils, tillage ridges are more or less the only roughness element that can be used to protect soils against wind erosion until crop plants are large enough to provide sufficient breaks. Since wind erosion is a selective process, it can be assumed that increasing erosion rates are associated with increasing loss of dust sized particles and nutrients. However, selective erosion is strongly affected by the orientation and respective trapping efficiency of tillage ridges and furrows. The main objective of this study, therefore, was to determine the effect of tillage direction on nutrient mobilization by wind erosion from agricultural land in Denmark. In order to assess the relationship between the enrichment ratio of specific particle sizes and the amount of eroded nutrients, three soils with loamy sand texture, but varying amounts of sand-sized particles, were selected. In addition, a soil with slightly less sand, but much higher organic matter content was chosen. The soils were tested with three different soil surface scenarios (flat surface, parallel tillage, perpendicular tillage) in a wind tunnel simulation. The parallel tillage operation experienced the greatest erosion rates, independent of soil type. Particles with D50 between 100-155 µm showed the greatest risk of erosion. However, due to a greater loss of dust sized particles from perpendicularly tilled surfaces, this wind-surface arrangement showed a significant increase in nutrient enrichment ratio compared to parallel tillage and flat surfaces. The main reason for this phenomenon is most probably the trapping of larger particles in the perpendicular furrows. This indicates that the highest rate of soil protection does not necessarily coincide with lowest soil nutrient losses and dust emissions. For the evaluation of protection measures on these soil types in Denmark it is, therefore, important to differentiate between their effectivity to reduce total soil erosion amount, dust emission, and nutrient loss.

BslA(YuaB) forms a hydrophobic layer on the surface of Bacillus subtilis biofilms.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Kazuo; Iwano, Megumi

2012-07-01

Biofilms are surface-associated bacterial aggregates, in which bacteria are enveloped by polymeric substances known as the biofilm matrix. Bacillus subtilis biofilms display persistent resistance to liquid wetting and gas penetration, which probably explains the broad-spectrum resistance of the bacteria in these biofilms to antimicrobial agents. In this study, BslA (formerly YuaB) was identified as a major contributor to the surface repellency of B. subtilis biofilms. Disruption of bslA resulted in the loss of surface repellency and altered the biofilm surface microstructure. BslA localized to the biofilm matrix in an exopolysaccharide-dependent manner. Purified BslA exhibited amphiphilic properties and formed polymers in response to increases in the area of the air-water interface in vitro. Genetic and biochemical analyses showed that the self-polymerization activity of BslA was essential for its ability to localize to the biofilm matrix. Confocal laser scanning microscopy showed that BslA formed a layer on the biofilm surface. Taken together, we propose that BslA, standing for biofilm-surface layer protein, is responsible for the hydrophobic layer on the surface of biofilms. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Recyclable amplification for single-photon entanglement from photon loss and decoherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lan; Chen, Ling-Quan; Zhong, Wei; Sheng, Yu-Bo

2018-01-01

We put forward a highly efficient recyclable single-photon assisted amplification protocol, which can protect single-photon entanglement (SPE) from photon loss and decoherence. Making use of quantum nondemolition detection gates constructed with the help of cross-Kerr nonlinearity, our protocol has some attractive advantages. First, the parties can recover less-entangled SPE to be maximally entangled SPE, and reduce photon loss simultaneously. Second, if the protocol fails, the parties can repeat the protocol to reuse some discarded items, which can increase the success probability. Third, when the protocol is successful, they can similarly repeat the protocol to further increase the fidelity of the SPE. Thereby, our protocol provides a possible way to obtain high entanglement, high fidelity and high success probability simultaneously. In particular, our protocol shows higher success probability in the practical high photon loss channel. Based on the above features, our amplification protocol has potential for future application in long-distance quantum communication.

Crude mortality and loss of life expectancy of patients diagnosed with urothelial carcinoma of the urinary bladder in Norway.

PubMed

Andreassen, Bettina K; Myklebust, Tor Å; Haug, Erik S

2017-02-01

Reports from cancer registries often lack clinically relevant information, which would be useful in estimating the prognosis of individual patients with urothelial carcinoma of the urinary bladder (UCB). This article presents estimates of crude probabilities of death due to UCB and the expected loss of lifetime stratified for patient characteristics. In Norway, 10,332 patients were diagnosed with UCB between 2001 and 2010. The crude probabilities of death due to UCB were estimated, stratified by gender, age and T stage, using flexible parametric survival models. Based on these models, the loss in expectation of lifetime due to UCB was also estimated for the different strata. There is large variation in the estimated crude probabilities of death due to UCB (from 0.03 to 0.76 within 10 years since diagnosis) depending on age, gender and T stage. Furthermore, the expected loss of life expectancy is more than a decade for younger patients with muscle-invasive UCB and between a few months and 5 years for nonmuscle-invasive UCB. The suggested framework leads to clinically relevant prognostic risk estimates for individual patients diagnosed with UCB and the consequence in terms of loss of lifetime expectation. The published probability tables can be used in clinical praxis for risk communication.

Effect of gums on the rheological, microstructural and extrusion printing characteristics of mashed potatoes.

PubMed

Liu, Zhenbin; Zhang, Min; Bhandari, Bhesh

2018-06-10

This paper studied the rheological, microstructural and 3D printing characteristics of mashed potatoes (MP) with gums of xanthan (XG), guar (GG), k-carrageenan (KG) and k-carrageenan- xanthan gum blend (KG-XG). Addition of gums increased the viscosity, storage modulus (G'), and loss modulus (G″) of MP except XG. Creep results indicated that self-supporting performance followed decreasing order of KG > KG-XG > GG > contorl > XG. Fourier Transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) results well explained the behavior by enhancing hydrogen bonding and constraining water molecules' mobility. KG-MP samples possessed good self-supporting performance but with rough surface and lots of defective points. The parts printed using XG-MP were "fatter" than target objects but with a smooth surface structure. This probably because the excellent extrudability (more fluid-like behavior, tanδ 0.185) but with poor self-supporting ability indicated by lower G' and greater creep strain 0.88%. The printed objects using KG-XG-MP possessed a smooth surface structure (visual appearance), and good printing precision indicated by the lowest dimensional printing deviation for a printed cuboid shape (2.19%, 2.20%, 2% for length, width, height direction, respectively). This was probably because the creaminess effect provided by XG render the printed objects a smooth surface structure, while KG provided MP with sufficient mechanical strength (proper G' and load bearing capacity) to be capable of self-supporting. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Managing risk with chance-constrained programming

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; Brian Kent

2007-01-01

Reducing catastrophic fire risk is an important objective of many fuel treatment programs (Kent et al. 2003; Machlis et al. 2002; USDA/USDI 2001a). In practice, risk reductions can be accomplished by lowering the probability of a given loss to forest fires, the amount of probable loss, or both. Forest fire risk objectives are seldom quantified, however, making it...

The Clementine Bistatic Radar Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nozette, S.; Lichtenberg, C. L.; Spudis, P.; Bonner, R.; Ort, W.; Malaret, E.; Robinson, M.; Shoemaker, E. M.

1996-01-01

During the Clementine 1 mission, a bistatic radar experiment measured the magnitude and polarization of the radar echo versus bistatic angle, beta, for selected lunar areas. Observations of the lunar south pole yield a same-sense polarization enhancement around beta = 0. Analysis shows that the observed enhancement is localized to the permanently shadowed regions of the lunar south pole. Radar observations of periodically solar-illuminated lunar surfaces, including the north pole, yielded no such enhancement. A probable explanation for these differences is the presence of low-loss volume scatterers, such as water ice, in the permanently shadowed region at the south pole.

Age, Loss Minimization, and the Role of Probability for Decision-Making.

PubMed

Best, Ryan; Freund, Alexandra M

2018-04-05

Older adults are stereotypically considered to be risk averse compared to younger age groups, although meta-analyses on age and the influence of gain/loss framing on risky choices have not found empirical evidence for age differences in risk-taking. The current study extends the investigation of age differences in risk preference by including analyses on the effect of the probability of a risky option on choices in gain versus loss situations. Participants (n = 130 adults aged 19-80 years) chose between a certain option and a risky option of varying probability in gain- and loss-framed gambles with actual monetary outcomes. Only younger adults displayed an overall framing effect. Younger and older adults responded differently to probability fluctuations depending on the framing condition. Older adults were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of avoiding a larger loss increased and as the likelihood of a larger gain decreased. Younger adults responded with the opposite pattern: they were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of a larger gain increased and as the likelihood of avoiding a (slightly) larger loss decreased. Results suggest that older adults are more willing to select a risky option when it increases the likelihood that larger losses be avoided, whereas younger adults are more willing to select a risky option when it allows for slightly larger gains. This finding supports expectations based on theoretical accounts of goal orientation shifting away from securing gains in younger adulthood towards maintenance and avoiding losses in older adulthood. Findings are also discussed in respect to the affective enhancement perspective and socioemotional selectivity theory. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Scale-Invariant Transition Probabilities in Free Word Association Trajectories

PubMed Central

Costa, Martin Elias; Bonomo, Flavia; Sigman, Mariano

2009-01-01

Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16% of order-2 cycles) implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼7 steps) which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution. PMID:19826622

Effects of surface motion and electron-hole pair excitations in CO2 dissociation and scattering on Ni(100)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Xuan; Zhou, Xueyao; Jiang, Bin

2018-05-01

The energy transfer between different channels is an important aspect in chemical reactions at surfaces. We investigate here in detail the energy transfer dynamics in a prototypical system, i.e., reactive and nonreactive scattering of CO2 on Ni(100), which is related to heterogeneous catalytic processes with Ni-based catalysts for CO2 reduction. On the basis of our earlier nine-dimensional potential energy surface for CO2/Ni(100), dynamical calculations have been done using the generalized Langevin oscillator (GLO) model combined with local density friction approximation (LDFA), in which the former accounts for the surface motion and the latter accounts for the low-energy electron-hole pair (EHP) excitation. In spite of its simplicity, it is found that the GLO model yields quite satisfactory results, including the significant energy loss and product energy disposal, trapping, and steering dynamics, all of which agree well with the ab initio molecular dynamics ones where many surface atoms are explicitly involved with high computational cost. However, the GLO model fails to describe the reactivity enhancement due to the lattice motion because it intrinsically does not incorporate the variance of barrier height on the surface atom displacement. On the other hand, in LDFA, the energy transferred to EHPs is found to play a minor role and barely alter the dynamics, except for slightly reducing the dissociation probabilities. In addition, vibrational state-selected dissociative sticking probabilities are calculated and previously observed strong mode specificity is confirmed. Our work suggests that further improvement of the GLO model is needed to consider the lattice-induced barrier lowering.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed Central

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

Objective: This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Methods: Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Results: Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks. PMID:26635652

Modeling Cl2/O2/Ar inductively coupled plasmas used for silicon etching: effects of SiO2 chamber wall coating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinck, S.; Boullart, W.; Bogaerts, A.

2011-08-01

In this paper, simulations are performed to gain a better insight into the properties of a Cl2/Ar plasma, with and without O2, during plasma etching of Si. Both plasma and surface properties are calculated in a self-consistent manner. Special attention is paid to the behavior of etch products coming from the wafer or the walls, and how the chamber walls can affect the plasma and the resulting etch process. Two modeling cases are considered. In the first case, the reactor walls are defined as clean (Al2O3), whereas in the second case a SiO2 coating is introduced on the reactor walls before the etching process, so that oxygen will be sputtered from the walls and introduced into the plasma. For this reason, a detailed reaction set is presented for a Cl2/O2/Ar plasma containing etched species, as well as an extensive reaction set for surface processes, including physical and chemical sputtering, chemical etching and deposition processes. Density and flux profiles of various species are presented for a better understanding of the bulk plasma during the etching process. Detailed information is also given on the composition of the surfaces at various locations of the reactor, on the etch products in the plasma and on the surface loss probabilities of the plasma species at the walls, with different compositions. It is found that in the clean chamber, walls are mostly chlorinated (Al2Cl3), with a thin layer of etch products residing on the wall. In the coated chamber, an oxy-chloride layer is grown on the walls for a few nanometers during the etching process. The Cl atom wall loss probability is found to decrease significantly in the coated chamber, hence increasing the etch rate. SiCl2, SiCl4 and SiCl3 are found to be the main etch products in the plasma, with the fraction of SiCl2 being always slightly higher. The simulation results compare well with experimental data available from the literature.

Exploring possibilities of band gap measurement with off-axis EELS in TEM.

PubMed

Korneychuk, Svetlana; Partoens, Bart; Guzzinati, Giulio; Ramaneti, Rajesh; Derluyn, Joff; Haenen, Ken; Verbeeck, Jo

2018-06-01

A technique to measure the band gap of dielectric materials with high refractive index by means of energy electron loss spectroscopy (EELS) is presented. The technique relies on the use of a circular (Bessel) aperture and suppresses Cherenkov losses and surface-guided light modes by enforcing a momentum transfer selection. The technique also strongly suppresses the elastic zero loss peak, making the acquisition, interpretation and signal to noise ratio of low loss spectra considerably better, especially for excitations in the first few eV of the EELS spectrum. Simulations of the low loss inelastic electron scattering probabilities demonstrate the beneficial influence of the Bessel aperture in this setup even for high accelerating voltages. The importance of selecting the optimal experimental convergence and collection angles is highlighted. The effect of the created off-axis acquisition conditions on the selection of the transitions from valence to conduction bands is discussed in detail on a simplified isotropic two band model. This opens the opportunity for deliberately selecting certain transitions by carefully tuning the microscope parameters. The suggested approach is experimentally demonstrated and provides good signal to noise ratio and interpretable band gap signals on reference samples of diamond, GaN and AlN while offering spatial resolution in the nm range. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using hyperentanglement to enhance resolution, signal-to-noise ratio, and measurement time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James F.

2017-03-01

A hyperentanglement-based atmospheric imaging/detection system involving only a signal and an ancilla photon will be considered for optical and infrared frequencies. Only the signal photon will propagate in the atmosphere and its loss will be classical. The ancilla photon will remain within the sensor experiencing low loss. Closed form expressions for the wave function, normalization, density operator, reduced density operator, symmetrized logarithmic derivative, quantum Fisher information, quantum Cramer-Rao lower bound, coincidence probabilities, probability of detection, probability of false alarm, probability of error after M measurements, signal-to-noise ratio, quantum Chernoff bound, time-on-target expressions related to probability of error, and resolution will be provided. The effect of noise in every mode will be included as well as loss. The system will provide the basic design for an imaging/detection system functioning at optical or infrared frequencies that offers better than classical angular and range resolution. Optimization for enhanced resolution will be included. The signal-to-noise ratio will be increased by a factor equal to the number of modes employed during the hyperentanglement process. Likewise, the measurement time can be reduced by the same factor. The hyperentanglement generator will typically make use of entanglement in polarization, energy-time, orbital angular momentum and so on. Mathematical results will be provided describing the system's performance as a function of loss mechanisms and noise.

Probability and shape of the spectral line of a single bulk characteristic energy loss of a fast electron in a medium with electron absorption and strong spatial dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Libenson, B. N., E-mail: libenson-b@yandex.ru

2011-10-15

The probability of single characteristic energy loss of a fast electron in a reflection experiment has been calculated. Unlike many works concerning this subject, the bremsstrahlung of bulk plasmons in the non- Cherenkov ranges of frequencies and wavevectors of a plasmon has been taken into account. The contributions to the probability of single loss and to the shape of the spectral line from a quantum correction that is due to the interference of elastic and inelastic electron scattering events have been determined. The probability has been calculated in the kinetic approximation for the relative permittivity, where the short-wavelength range ofmore » the plasmon spectrum is correctly taken into account. In view of these circumstances, the expression for the mean free path of the electron with respect to the emission of a bulk plasmon that was obtained by Pines [D. Pines, Elementary Excitations in Solids (Benjamin, New York, 1963)] has been refined. The coherence length of the fast electron in the medium-energy range under consideration has been estimated. The shape of the spectral line of energy losses in the non-Cherenkov frequency range has been determined. It has been shown that the probability of the single emission of the bulk plasmon incompletely corresponds to the Poisson statistics.« less

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source fault would be performed in order to examine the amount of the displacement and conditional probability quantitatively.

Incorporating Skew into RMS Surface Roughness Probability Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, Mark T.; Stahl, H. Philip.

2013-01-01

The standard treatment of RMS surface roughness data is the application of a Gaussian probability distribution. This handling of surface roughness ignores the skew present in the surface and overestimates the most probable RMS of the surface, the mode. Using experimental data we confirm the Gaussian distribution overestimates the mode and application of an asymmetric distribution provides a better fit. Implementing the proposed asymmetric distribution into the optical manufacturing process would reduce the polishing time required to meet surface roughness specifications.

Study of discharge cleaning process in JIPP T-2 Torus by residual gas analyzer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, N.; Hirokura, S.; Taniguchi, Y.; Tanahashi, S.

1982-12-01

During discharge cleaning, decay time of water vapor pressure changes when the pressure reaches a certain level. A long decay time observed in the later phase can be interpreted as a result of a slow deoxidization rate of chromium oxide, which may dominate the cleaning process in this phase. Optimization of plasma density for the cleaning is discussed comparing the experimental results on density dependence of water vapor pressure with a result based on a zero dimensional calculation for particle balance. One of the essential points for effective cleaning is the raising of the electron density of the plasma high enough that the dissociation loss rate of H2O is as large as the sticking loss rate. A density as high as 10 to the 11th power/cu cm is required for a clean surface condition where sticking probability is presumed to be around 0.5.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

PubMed

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

A Connection Admission Control Method for Web Server Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satake, Shinsuke; Inai, Hiroshi; Saito, Tomoya; Arai, Tsuyoshi

Most browsers establish multiple connections and download files in parallel to reduce the response time. On the other hand, a web server limits the total number of connections to prevent from being overloaded. That could decrease the response time, but would increase the loss probability, the probability of which a newly arriving client is rejected. This paper proposes a connection admission control method which accepts only one connection from a newly arriving client when the number of connections exceeds a threshold, but accepts new multiple connections when the number of connections is less than the threshold. Our method is aimed at reducing the response time by allowing as many clients as possible to establish multiple connections, and also reducing the loss probability. In order to reduce spending time to examine an adequate threshold for web server administrators, we introduce a procedure which approximately calculates the loss probability under a condition that the threshold is given. Via simulation, we validate the approximation and show effectiveness of the admission control.

Effects of breastfeeding on postpartum weight loss among U.S. women

PubMed Central

Jarlenski, Marian P.; Bennett, Wendy L.; Bleich, Sara N.; Barry, Colleen L.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2014-01-01

Objective To evaluate the effects of breastfeeding on maternal weight loss in the 12 months postpartum among U.S. women. Methods Using data from a national cohort of U.S. women conducted in 2005-2007 (N=2,102), we employed propensity scores to match women who breastfed exclusively and non-exclusive for at least three months to comparison women who had not breastfed or breastfed for less than three months. Outcomes included postpartum weight loss at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months postpartum; and the probability of returning to pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) category and the probability of returning to pre-pregnancy weight. Results Compared to women who did not breastfeed or breastfed non-exclusively, exclusive breastfeeding for at least 3 months resulted in 3.2 pounds (95% CI: 1.4,4.7) greater weight loss at 12 months postpartum, a 6.0-percentage-point increase (95% CI: 2.3,9.7) in the probability of returning to the same or lower BMI category postpartum; and a 6.1-percentage-point increase (95% CI: 1.0,11.3) in the probability of returning to pre-pregnancy weight or lower postpartum. Non-exclusive breastfeeding did not significantly affect any outcomes. Conclusion Our study provides evidence that exclusive breastfeeding for at least three months has a small effect on postpartum weight loss among U.S. women. PMID:25284261

Effects of breastfeeding on postpartum weight loss among U.S. women.

PubMed

Jarlenski, Marian P; Bennett, Wendy L; Bleich, Sara N; Barry, Colleen L; Stuart, Elizabeth A

2014-12-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of breastfeeding on maternal weight loss in the 12months postpartum among U.S. women. Using data from a national cohort of U.S. women conducted in 2005-2007 (N=2102), we employed propensity scores to match women who breastfed exclusively and non-exclusive for at least three months to comparison women who had not breastfed or breastfed for less than three months. Outcomes included postpartum weight loss at 3, 6, 9, and 12months postpartum; and the probability of returning to pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) category and the probability of returning to pre-pregnancy weight. Compared to women who did not breastfeed or breastfed non-exclusively, exclusive breastfeeding for at least 3months resulted in 3.2 pound (95% CI: 1.4,4.7) greater weight loss at 12months postpartum, a 6.0-percentage-point increase (95% CI: 2.3,9.7) in the probability of returning to the same or lower BMI category postpartum; and a 6.1-percentage-point increase (95% CI: 1.0,11.3) in the probability of returning to pre-pregnancy weight or lower postpartum. Non-exclusive breastfeeding did not significantly affect any outcomes. Our study provides evidence that exclusive breastfeeding for at least three months has a small effect on postpartum weight loss among U.S. women. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reward Expectation Modulates Feedback-Related Negativity and EEG Spectra

PubMed Central

Cohen, Michael X; Elger, Christian E.; Ranganath, Charan

2007-01-01

The ability to evaluate outcomes of previous decisions is critical to adaptive decision-making. The feedback-related negativity (FRN) is an event-related potential (ERP) modulation that distinguishes losses from wins, but little is known about the effects of outcome probability on these ERP responses. Further, little is known about the frequency characteristics of feedback processing, for example, event-related oscillations and phase synchronizations. Here, we report an EEG experiment designed to address these issues. Subjects engaged in a probabilistic reinforcement learning task in which we manipulated, across blocks, the probability of winning and losing to each of two possible decision options. Behaviorally, all subjects quickly adapted their decision-making to maximize rewards. ERP analyses revealed that the probability of reward modulated neural responses to wins, but not to losses. This was seen both across blocks as well as within blocks, as learning progressed. Frequency decomposition via complex wavelets revealed that EEG responses to losses, compared to wins, were associated with enhanced power and phase coherence in the theta frequency band. As in the ERP analyses, power and phase coherence values following wins but not losses were modulated by reward probability. Some findings between ERP and frequency analyses diverged, suggesting that these analytic approaches provide complementary insights into neural processing. These findings suggest that the neural mechanisms of feedback processing may differ between wins and losses. PMID:17257860

Probability function of breaking-limited surface elevation. [wind generated waves of ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, C. C.; Huang, N. E.; Yuan, Y.; Long, S. R.

1989-01-01

The effect of wave breaking on the probability function of surface elevation is examined. The surface elevation limited by wave breaking zeta sub b(t) is first related to the original wave elevation zeta(t) and its second derivative. An approximate, second-order, nonlinear, non-Gaussian model for zeta(t) of arbitrary but moderate bandwidth is presented, and an expression for the probability density function zeta sub b(t) is derived. The results show clearly that the effect of wave breaking on the probability density function of surface elevation is to introduce a secondary hump on the positive side of the probability density function, a phenomenon also observed in wind wave tank experiments.

Aeroheating model advancements featuring electroless metallic plating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stalmach, C. J., Jr.; Goodrich, W. D.

1976-01-01

Discussed are advancements in wind tunnel model construction methods and hypersonic test data demonstrating the methods. The general objective was to develop model fabrication methods for improved heat transfer measuring capability at less model cost. A plated slab model approach was evaluated with cast models containing constantan wires that formed single-wire-to-plate surface thermocouple junctions with a seamless skin of electroless nickel alloy. The surface of a space shuttle orbiter model was selectively plated with scaled tiles to simulate, with high fidelity, the probable misalignments of the heatshield tiles on a flight vehicle. Initial, Mach 8 heating results indicated a minor effect of tile misalignment roughness on boundary layer transition, implying a possible relaxation of heatshield manufacturing tolerances. Some loss of the plated tiles was experienced when the model was tested at high heating rates.

Delay Analysis and Optimization of Bandwidth Request under Unicast Polling in IEEE 802.16e over Gilbert-Elliot Error Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Eunju; Kim, Kyung Jae; Roijers, Frank; Choi, Bong Dae

In the centralized polling mode in IEEE 802.16e, a base station (BS) polls mobile stations (MSs) for bandwidth reservation in one of three polling modes; unicast, multicast, or broadcast pollings. In unicast polling, the BS polls each individual MS to allow to transmit a bandwidth request packet. This paper presents an analytical model for the unicast polling of bandwidth request in IEEE 802.16e networks over Gilbert-Elliot error channel. We derive the probability distribution for the delay of bandwidth requests due to wireless transmission errors and find the loss probability of request packets due to finite retransmission attempts. By using the delay distribution and the loss probability, we optimize the number of polling slots within a frame and the maximum retransmission number while satisfying QoS on the total loss probability which combines two losses: packet loss due to the excess of maximum retransmission and delay outage loss due to the maximum tolerable delay bound. In addition, we obtain the utilization of polling slots, which is defined as the ratio of the number of polling slots used for the MS's successful transmission to the total number of polling slots used by the MS over a long run time. Analysis results are shown to well match with simulation results. Numerical results give examples of the optimal number of polling slots within a frame and the optimal maximum retransmission number depending on delay bounds, the number of MSs, and the channel conditions.

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

PubMed

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Warship Combat System Selection Methodology Based on Discrete Event Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

Platform (from Spanish) PD Damage Probability xiv PHit Hit Probability PKill Kill Probability RSM Response Surface Model SAM Surface-Air Missile...such a large target allows an assumption that the probability of a hit ( PHit ) is one. This structure can be considered as a bridge; therefore, the

Preliminary report on macroscopic age changes in the human prosencephalon. A stereologic investigation.

PubMed

Eggers, R; Haug, H; Fischer, D

1984-01-01

The studies here reported were performed on the prosencephalons of 12 human brains between 37 and 86 years of age having no signs of neuropathological alteration. The evaluation was carried out on serial frontal sections with a mean thickness of 5 mm with stereological point counting procedures for volume and surface area. The results were mainly given in relative values since the range of variation is very high and the sample small. The aging process was evaluated with the aid of a linear regression function. The stereological investigation regarding the absolute values of volume and surface area (border face) of the macroscopical brain parts show a high interindividual variability. However, the relative volume of brain parts shows only small variations. Changes during aging could consequently only be revealed with the help of the relative values. The relative volumes and surface areas of the frontal lobe and the prosencephalic ganglia decrease with aging, while the parieto-occipital lobe and the striate cortex increase. However, if we refer these relative increases to the absolute decrease of brain volume, corresponding changes cannot be found in the parieto-occipital lobe until old age. The shrinkage of the frontal lobe, of the centrum semiovale and of the prosencephalic ganglia exceeds 10%. In the grays it is probably accompanied by a loss of neurons. The relative sizes of the surface area do not change significantly during aging with exception of the frontal cortex. The thickness of the cortex remains probably constant. The size of lateral ventricles increases with aging.

Validation of an automated fluorescein method for determining bromide in water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fishman, M. J.; Schroder, L.J.; Friedman, L.C.

1985-01-01

Surface, atmospheric precipitation and deionized water samples were spiked with ??g l-1 concentrations of bromide, and the solutions stored in polyethylene and polytetrafluoroethylene bottles. Bromide was determined periodically for 30 days. Automated fluorescein and ion chromatography methods were used to determine bromide in these prepared samples. Analysis of the data by the paired t-test indicates that the two methods are not significantly different at a probability of 95% for samples containing from 0.015 to 0.5 mg l-1 of bromide. The correlation coefficient for the same sets of paired data is 0.9987. Recovery data, except for the surface water samples to which 0.005 mg l-1 of bromide was added, range from 89 to 112%. There appears to be no loss of bromide from solution in either type of container.Surface, atmospheric precipitation and deionized water samples were spiked with mu g l** minus **1 concentrations of bromide, and the solutions stored in polyethylene and polytetrafluoroethylene bottles. Bromide was determined periodically for 30 days. Automated fluorescein and ion chromatography methods were used to determine bromide in these prepared samples. Analysis of the data by the paired t-test indicates that the two methods are not significantly different at a probability of 95% for samples containing from 0. 015 to 0. 5 mg l** minus **1 of bromide. The correlation coefficient for the same sets of paired data is 0. 9987. Recovery data, except for the surface water samples to which 0. 005 mg l** minus **1 of bromide was added, range from 89 to 112%. Refs.

Prospect theory in the health domain: a quantitative assessment.

PubMed

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; I'Haridon, Olivier

2013-12-01

It is well-known that expected utility (EU) has empirical deficiencies. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) has developed as an alternative with more descriptive validity. However, CPT's full function had not yet been quantified in the health domain. This paper is therefore the first to simultaneously measure utility of life duration, probability weighting, and loss aversion in this domain. We observe loss aversion and risk aversion for gains and losses, which for gains can be explained by probabilistic pessimism. Utility for gains is almost linear. For losses, we find less weighting of probability 1/2 and concave utility. This contrasts with the common finding of convex utility for monetary losses. However, CPT was proposed to explain choices among lotteries involving monetary outcomes. Life years are arguably very different from monetary outcomes and need not generate convex utility for losses. Moreover, utility of life duration reflects discounting, causing concave utility. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Locally oxidized silicon surface-plasmon Schottky detector for telecom regime.

PubMed

Goykhman, Ilya; Desiatov, Boris; Khurgin, Jacob; Shappir, Joseph; Levy, Uriel

2011-06-08

We experimentally demonstrate an on-chip nanoscale silicon surface-plasmon Schottky photodetector based on internal photoemission process and operating at telecom wavelengths. The device is fabricated using a self-aligned approach of local-oxidation of silicon (LOCOS) on silicon on insulator substrate, which provides compatibility with standard complementary metal-oxide semiconductor technology and enables the realization of the photodetector and low-loss bus photonic waveguide at the same fabrication step. Additionally, LOCOS technique allows avoiding lateral misalignment between the silicon surface and the metal layer to form a nanoscale Schottky contact. The fabricated devices showed enhanced detection capability for shorter wavelengths that is attributed to increased probability of the internal photoemission process. We found the responsivity of the nanodetector to be 0.25 and 13.3 mA/W for incident optical wavelengths of 1.55 and 1.31 μm, respectively. The presented device can be integrated with other nanophotonic and nanoplasmonic structures for the realization of monolithic opto-electronic circuitry on-chip.

Probabilistic #D data fusion for multiresolution surface generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manduchi, R.; Johnson, A. E.

2002-01-01

In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive resolution integration of 3D data collected from multiple distributed sensors. The input to the algorithm is a set of 3D surface points and associated sensor models. Using a probabilistic rule, a surface probability function is generated that represents the probability that a particular volume of space contains the surface. The surface probability function is represented using an octree data structure; regions of space with samples of large conariance are stored at a coarser level than regions of space containing samples with smaller covariance. The algorithm outputs an adaptive resolution surface generated by connecting points that lie on the ridge of surface probability with triangles scaled to match the local discretization of space given by the algorithm, we present results from 3D data generated by scanning lidar and structure from motion.

Carbon Turnover in Organic Soils of Central Saskatchewan: Insights From a Core-Based Decomposition Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, I. E.; Bhatti, J. S.; Hurdle, P. A.

2004-05-01

Field-based decomposition studies that examine several site types tend to use one of two approaches: Either the decay of one (or more) standard litters is examined in all sites, or litters native to each site type are incubated in the environment they came from. The first of these approaches examines effects of environment on decay, whereas the latter determines rates of mass loss characteristic of each site type. Both methods are usually restricted to a limited number of litters, and neither allows for a direct estimate of ecosystem-level parameters (e.g. heterotrophic respiration). In order to examine changes in total organic matter turnover along forest - peatland gradients in central Saskatchewan, we measured mass loss of native peat samples from six different depths (surface to 50 cm) over one year. Samples were obtained by sectioning short peat cores, and cores and samples were returned to their original position after determining the initial weight of each sample. A standard litter (birch popsicle sticks) was included at each depth, and water tables and soil temperature were monitored over the growing season. After one year, average mass loss in surface peat samples was similar to published values from litter bag studies, ranging from 12 to 21 percent in the environments examined. Native peat mass loss showed few systematic differences between sites or along the forest - peatland gradient, with over 60 percent of the total variability explained by depth alone. Mass loss of standard litter samples was highly variable, with high values in areas at the transition between upland and peatland that may have experienced recent disturbance. In combination, these results suggest strong litter-based control over natural rates of organic matter turnover. Estimates of heterotrophic respiration calculated from the mass loss data are higher than values obtained by eddy covariance or static chamber techniques, probably reflecting loss of material during the handling of samples or increased mass loss from manipulated profiles. Nevertheless, the core-based method is a useful tool in examining carbon dynamics of organic soils, since it provides a good relative index of organic matter turnover, and allows for separate examination of environmental and litter-based effects.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang-Ki; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Enfield, David B.; Weaver, Scott J.; Wang, Chunzai; Atlas, Robert

2016-04-01

Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. We show that the four dominant springtime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Niño and resurgent versus transitioning La Niña) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.

Vulnerability of manned spacecraft to crew loss from orbital debris penetration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamsen, J. E.

1994-01-01

Orbital debris growth threatens the survival of spacecraft systems from impact-induced failures. Whereas the probability of debris impact and spacecraft penetration may currently be calculated, another parameter of great interest to safety engineers is the probability that debris penetration will cause actual spacecraft or crew loss. Quantifying the likelihood of crew loss following a penetration allows spacecraft designers to identify those design features and crew operational protocols that offer the highest improvement in crew safety for available resources. Within this study, a manned spacecraft crew survivability (MSCSurv) computer model is developed that quantifies the conditional probability of losing one or more crew members, P(sub loss/pen), following the remote likelihood of an orbital debris penetration into an eight module space station. Contributions to P(sub loss/pen) are quantified from three significant penetration-induced hazards: pressure wall rupture (explosive decompression), fragment-induced injury, and 'slow' depressurization. Sensitivity analyses are performed using alternate assumptions for hazard-generating functions, crew vulnerability thresholds, and selected spacecraft design and crew operations parameters. These results are then used to recommend modifications to the spacecraft design and expected crew operations that quantitatively increase crew safety from orbital debris impacts.

HIV Patients Drop Out in Indonesia: Associated Factors and Potential Productivity Loss.

PubMed

Siregar, Adiatma Ym; Pitriyan, Pipit; Wisaksana, Rudi

2016-07-01

this study reported various factors associated with a higher probability of HIV patients drop out, and potential productivity loss due to HIV patients drop out. we analyzed data of 658 HIV patients from a database in a main referral hospital in Bandung city, West Java, Indonesia from 2007 to 2013. First, we utilized probit regression analysis and included, among others, the following variables: patients' status (active or drop out), CD4 cell count, TB and opportunistic infection (OI), work status, sex, history of injecting drugs, and support from family and peers. Second, we used the drop out data from our database and CD 4 cell count decline rate from another study to estimate the productivity loss due to HIV patients drop out. lower CD4 cell count was associated with a higher probability of drop out. Support from family/peers, living with family, and diagnosed with TB were associated with lower probability of drop out. The productivity loss at national level due to treatment drop out (consequently, due to CD4 cell count decline) can reach US$365 million (using average wage). first, as lower CD 4 cell count was associated with higher probability of drop out, we recommend (to optimize) early ARV initiation at a higher CD 4 cell count, involving scaling up HIV service at the community level. Second, family/peer support should be further emphasized to further ensure treatment success. Third, dropping out from ART will result in a relatively large productivity loss.

[In the absence of early orthodontic treatment, is there a loss of chance?].

PubMed

Béry, A

2006-06-01

Chance is the probability that something will happen, and, in this sense, the absence of chance can be defined as the damage resulting from the disappearance of the probability of a favorable outcome (the contrary being the non-realization of the risk). This is autonomous damage that should be differentiated from final damage. Moral damage is a notion very close to the loss of chance even though it reposes on the indemnization of a final damage of an affection or malady. This article deals with these matters: an insufficient amount of information, the cause of final damage or the loss of chance, the loss of chance being a function of the deficit of information. In this sense, can the failure to begin early, appropriate dento-facial orthopedic treatment be considered a loss of chance for the child?

Recurrent pregnancy loss evaluation combined with 24-chromosome microarray of miscarriage tissue provides a probable or definite cause of pregnancy loss in over 90% of patients.

PubMed

Popescu, F; Jaslow, C R; Kutteh, W H

2018-04-01

Will the addition of 24-chromosome microarray analysis on miscarriage tissue combined with the standard American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) evaluation for recurrent miscarriage explain most losses? Over 90% of patients with recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) will have a probable or definitive cause identified when combining genetic testing on miscarriage tissue with the standard ASRM evaluation for recurrent miscarriage. RPL is estimated to occur in 2-4% of reproductive age couples. A probable cause can be identified in approximately 50% of patients after an ASRM recommended workup including an evaluation for parental chromosomal abnormalities, congenital and acquired uterine anomalies, endocrine imbalances and autoimmune factors including antiphospholipid syndrome. Single-center, prospective cohort study that included 100 patients seen in a private RPL clinic from 2014 to 2017. All 100 women had two or more pregnancy losses, a complete evaluation for RPL as defined by the ASRM, and miscarriage tissue evaluated by 24-chromosome microarray analysis after their second or subsequent miscarriage. Frequencies of abnormal results for evidence-based diagnostic tests considered definite or probable causes of RPL (karyotyping for parental chromosomal abnormalities, and 24-chromosome microarray evaluation for products of conception (POC); pelvic sonohysterography, hysterosalpingogram, or hysteroscopy for uterine anomalies; immunological tests for lupus anticoagulant and anticardiolipin antibodies; and blood tests for thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), prolactin and hemoglobin A1c) were evaluated. We excluded cases where there was maternal cell contamination of the miscarriage tissue or if the ASRM evaluation was incomplete. A cost analysis for the evaluation of RPL was conducted to determine whether a proposed procedure of 24-chromome microarray evaluation followed by an ASRM RPL workup (for those RPL patients who had a normal 24-chromosome microarray evaluation) was more cost-efficient than conducting ASRM RPL workups on RPL patients followed by 24-chromosome microarray analysis (for those RPL patients who had a normal RPL workup). A definite or probable cause of pregnancy loss was identified in the vast majority (95/100; 95%) of RPL patients when a 24-chromosome pair microarray evaluation of POC testing is combined with the standard ASRM RPL workup evaluation at the time of the second or subsequent loss. The ASRM RPL workup identified an abnormality and a probable explanation for pregnancy loss in only 45/100 or 45% of all patients. A definite abnormality was identified in 67/100 patients or 67% when initial testing was performed using 24-chromosome microarray analyses on the miscarriage tissue. Only 5/100 (5%) patients, who had a euploid loss and a normal ASRM RPL workup, had a pregnancy loss without a probable or definitive cause identified. All other losses were explained by an abnormal 24-chromosome microarray analysis of the miscarriage tissue, an abnormal finding of the RPL workup, or a combination of both. Results from the cost analysis indicated that an initial approach of using a 24-chromosome microarray analysis on miscarriage tissue resulted in a 50% savings in cost to the health care system and to the patient. This is a single-center study on a small group of well-characterized women with RPL. There was an incomplete follow-up on subsequent pregnancy outcomes after evaluation, however this should not affect our principal results. The maternal age of patients varied from 26 to 45 years old. More aneuploid pregnancy losses would be expected in older women, particularly over the age of 35 years old. Evaluation of POC using 24-chromosome microarray analysis adds significantly to the ASRM recommended evaluation of RPL. Genetic evaluation on miscarriage tissue obtained at the time of the second and subsequent pregnancy losses should be offered to all couples with two or more consecutive pregnancy losses. The combination of a genetic evaluation on miscarriage tissue with an evidence-based evaluation for RPL will identify a probable or definitive cause in over 90% of miscarriages. No funding was received for this study and there are no conflicts of interest to declare. Not applicable.

Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents.

PubMed

Offerman, Theo; Palley, Asa B

2016-01-01

Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of [Formula: see text], and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report [Formula: see text]. Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.

It's all about gains: Risk preferences in problem gambling.

PubMed

Ring, Patrick; Probst, Catharina C; Neyse, Levent; Wolff, Stephan; Kaernbach, Christian; van Eimeren, Thilo; Camerer, Colin F; Schmidt, Ulrich

2018-06-07

Problem gambling is a serious socioeconomic problem involving high individual and social costs. In this article, we study risk preferences of problem gamblers including their risk attitudes in the gain and loss domains, their weighting of probabilities, and their degree of loss aversion. Our findings indicate that problem gamblers are systematically more risk taking and less sensitive toward changes in probabilities in the gain domain only. Neither their risk attitudes in the loss domain nor their degree of loss aversion are significantly different from the controls. Additional evidence for a similar degree of sensitivity toward negative outcomes is gained from skin conductance data-a psychophysiological marker for emotional arousal-in a threat-of-shock task. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Surface vibrational relaxation of N2 studied by infrared titration with time resolved Quantum Cascade Laser diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinov, D.; Guaitella, O.; Rousseau, A.; Lopatik, D.; Hübner, M.; Röpcke, J.; Ionikh, Yu

2012-10-01

Relaxation of vibrationally excited nitrogen molecules on reactor walls is the most efficient N2(v) loss mechanism in laboratory plasmas at pressures up to few tens of mbars. In the present study a new method for determination of the de-excitation probability γN2 of vibrationally excited N2 on different surfaces has been developed. A short dc discharge pulse was applied to a mixture containing 0.05-1% of CO2, N2O or CO in N2 at 1.3 mbar. Due to a very efficient vibrational coupling between N2(v) and CO2 (N2O, CO), the vibrational excitation of these titrating molecules is an image of the vibrational excitation of N2. In the afterglow, the vibrational relaxation was monitored in-situ using quantum cascade laser absorption spectroscopy. The measurements were performed in a single discharge pulse without signal accumulation. Experimental results were interpreted in terms of a numerical model of non-equilibrium vibrational kinetics. The value of γN2 was determined from the best agreement between the measured and calculated relaxation times. Using new technique the relaxation probability of N2(v) was measured for SiO2, TiO2, Al2O3, Pyrex and anodized aluminum.

The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices Without Trade-Offs

PubMed Central

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, we generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (i) Allais' paradox, (ii) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (iii) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (lottery tickets), (iv) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (buying insurance), (v) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (vi) certainty effect, (vii) possibility effect, and (viii) intransitivities. We test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared to previously proposed heuristics and three modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. PMID:16637767

Bulk and surface loss in superconducting transmon qubits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dial, Oliver; McClure, Douglas T.; Poletto, Stefano; Keefe, G. A.; Rothwell, Mary Beth; Gambetta, Jay M.; Abraham, David W.; Chow, Jerry M.; Steffen, Matthias

2016-04-01

Decoherence of superconducting transmon qubits is purported to be consistent with surface loss from two-level systems on the substrate surface. Here, we present a study of surface loss in transmon devices, explicitly designed to have varying sensitivities to different surface loss contributors. Our experiments also encompass two particular different sapphire substrates, which reveal the onset of a yet unknown additional loss mechanism outside of surface loss for one of the substrates. Tests across different wafers and devices demonstrate substantial variation, and we emphasize the importance of testing large numbers of devices for disentangling different sources of decoherence.

A study of areas of low radio-thermal emissivity on Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilt, Robert Joseph

1992-01-01

Observations performed by the Magellan radiometer experiment have confirmed previous findings that a few regions on Venus, primarily at higher elevations, possess unexpectedly low values of radiothermal emissivity, occasionally reaching as low as 0.3. Values of emissivity below 0.7 occur over about 1.5 percent of the surface, and are associated with several types of features, including highlands, volcanoes, tectonically uplifted terrain, and impact craters. There is a strong correlation of low emissivity and high elevation, but rather than decreasing gradually with elevation, the emissivity drops rapidly in a small altitude range above a certain 'critical radius'. The altitude at which the change in emissive properties occurs varies from feature to feature; on average, it lies at a planetary radius of about 6054 km. Notable exceptions to the association of low emissivity and high elevation exist; for example, Lakshmi Planum, Maat Mons, and the summits of many volcanoes display high emissivities at high elevations, while in some impact craters and plains areas we find low emissivities at low elevations. Two possible explanations for low emissivities have been advanced: (1) emission from a highly reflective single interface between the atmosphere and a surface material having a bulk dielectric constant of order 80 ('high-dielectric' model); and (2) emission from the surface of a low-loss soil having a more usual permittivity (of order 2) which contains subsurface scatterers composed of ordinary rock materials ('volume scattering' model). Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that the previously proposed volume scattering model cannot account for the observed emissivities; however, scattering from a material with very low loss (loss factor of order 10-3 or less) containing subsurface voids could produce the observed results. Consideration of the two models in light of the Magellan observations leads us to believe that the low emissivities on Venus result from the creation of a high-dielectic material by surface-atmosphere interaction, probably a loaded dielectric containing a conductive mineral.

Adaptation of non-linear mixed amount with zero amount response surface model for analysis of concentration-dependent synergism and safety with midazolam, alfentanil, and propofol sedation.

PubMed

Liou, J-Y; Ting, C-K; Teng, W-N; Mandell, M S; Tsou, M-Y

2018-06-01

The non-linear mixed amount with zero amounts response surface model can be used to describe drug interactions and predict loss of response to noxious stimuli and respiratory depression. We aimed to determine whether this response surface model could be used to model sedation with the triple drug combination of midazolam, alfentanil and propofol. Sedation was monitored in 56 patients undergoing gastrointestinal endoscopy (modelling group) using modified alertness/sedation scores. A total of 227 combinations of effect-site concentrations were derived from pharmacokinetic models. Accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated. Accuracy was defined as an absolute difference <0.5 between the binary patient responses and the predicted probability of loss of responsiveness. Validation was performed with a separate group (validation group) of 47 patients. Effect-site concentration ranged from 0 to 108 ng ml -1 for midazolam, 0-156 ng ml -1 for alfentanil, and 0-2.6 μg ml -1 for propofol in both groups. Synergy was strongest with midazolam and alfentanil (24.3% decrease in U 50 , concentration for half maximal drug effect). Adding propofol, a third drug, offered little additional synergy (25.8% decrease in U 50 ). Two patients (3%) experienced respiratory depression. Model accuracy was 83% and 76%, area under the curve was 0.87 and 0.80 for the modelling and validation group, respectively. The non-linear mixed amount with zero amounts triple interaction response surface model predicts patient sedation responses during endoscopy with combinations of midazolam, alfentanil, or propofol that fall within clinical use. Our model also suggests a safety margin of alfentanil fraction <0.12 that avoids respiratory depression after loss of responsiveness. Copyright © 2018 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noise thresholds for optical quantum computers.

PubMed

Dawson, Christopher M; Haselgrove, Henry L; Nielsen, Michael A

2006-01-20

In this Letter we numerically investigate the fault-tolerant threshold for optical cluster-state quantum computing. We allow both photon loss noise and depolarizing noise (as a general proxy for all local noise), and obtain a threshold region of allowed pairs of values for the two types of noise. Roughly speaking, our results show that scalable optical quantum computing is possible for photon loss probabilities <3 x 10(-3), and for depolarization probabilities <10(-4).

Single- and multiple-pulse noncoherent detection statistics associated with partially developed speckle.

PubMed

Osche, G R

2000-08-20

Single- and multiple-pulse detection statistics are presented for aperture-averaged direct detection optical receivers operating against partially developed speckle fields. A partially developed speckle field arises when the probability density function of the received intensity does not follow negative exponential statistics. The case of interest here is the target surface that exhibits diffuse as well as specular components in the scattered radiation. An approximate expression is derived for the integrated intensity at the aperture, which leads to single- and multiple-pulse discrete probability density functions for the case of a Poisson signal in Poisson noise with an additive coherent component. In the absence of noise, the single-pulse discrete density function is shown to reduce to a generalized negative binomial distribution. The radar concept of integration loss is discussed in the context of direct detection optical systems where it is shown that, given an appropriate set of system parameters, multiple-pulse processing can be more efficient than single-pulse processing over a finite range of the integration parameter n.

Correlation of probability scores of placenta accreta on magnetic resonance imaging with hemorrhagic morbidity.

PubMed

Lim, Grace; Horowitz, Jeanne M; Berggruen, Senta; Ernst, Linda M; Linn, Rebecca L; Hewlett, Bradley; Kim, Jennifer; Chalifoux, Laurie A; McCarthy, Robert J

2016-11-01

To evaluate the hypothesis that assigning grades to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of suspected placenta accreta will correlate with hemorrhagic outcomes. We chose a single-center, retrospective, observational design. Nulliparous or multiparous women who had antenatal placental MRI performed at a tertiary level academic hospital were included. Cases with antenatal placental MRI were included and compared with cases without MRI performed. Two radiologists assigned a probability score for accreta to each study. Estimated blood loss and transfusion requirements were compared among groups by the Kruskal-Wallis H test. Thirty-five cases had placental MRI performed. MRI performance was associated with higher blood loss compared with the non-MRI group (2600 [1400-4500]mL vs 900[600-1500]mL, P<.001). There was no difference in estimated blood loss (P=.31) or transfusion (P=.57) among the MRI probability groups. In cases of suspected placenta accreta, probability scores for antenatal placental MRI may not be associated with increasing degrees of hemorrhage. Continued research is warranted to determine the effectiveness of assigning probability scores for antenatal accreta imaging studies, combined with clinical indices of suspicion, in assisting with antenatal multidisciplinary team planning for operative management of this morbid condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jewitt, David, E-mail: jewitt@ucla.edu; Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567

Some asteroids eject dust, unexpectedly producing transient, comet-like comae and tails. First ascribed to the sublimation of near-surface water ice, mass-losing asteroids (also called 'main-belt comets') can in fact be driven by a surprising diversity of mechanisms. In this paper, we consider 11 dynamical asteroids losing mass, in nine of which the ejected material is spatially resolved. We address mechanisms for producing mass loss including rotational instability, impact ejection, electrostatic repulsion, radiation pressure sweeping, dehydration stresses, and thermal fracture, in addition to the sublimation of ice. In two objects (133P and 238P) the repetitive nature of the observed activity leavesmore » ice sublimation as the only reasonable explanation, while in a third ((596) Scheila), a recent impact is the cause. Another impact may account for activity in P/2010 A2, but this tiny object can also be explained as having shed mass after reaching rotational instability. Mass loss from (3200) Phaethon is probably due to cracking or dehydration at extreme ({approx}1000 K) perihelion temperatures, perhaps aided by radiation pressure sweeping. For the other bodies, the mass-loss mechanisms remain unidentified, pending the acquisition of more and better data. While the active asteroid sample size remains small, the evidence for an astonishing diversity of mass-loss processes in these bodies is clear.« less

Electron-Induced Chemistry of Cobalt Tricarbonyl Nitrosyl (Co(CO)3NO) in Liquid Helium Nanodroplets

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Electron addition to cobalt tricarbonyl nitrosyl (Co(CO3NO) and its clusters has been explored in helium nanodroplets. Anions were formed by adding electrons with controlled energies, and reaction products were identified by mass spectrometry. Dissociative electron attachment (DEA) to the Co(CO)3NO monomer gave reaction products similar to those reported in earlier gas phase experiments. However, loss of NO was more prevalent than loss of CO, in marked contrast to the gas phase. Since the Co–N bond is significantly stronger than the Co–C bond, this preference for NO loss must be driven by selective reaction dynamics at low temperature. For [Co(CO)3NO]N clusters, the DEA chemistry is similar to that of the monomer, but the anion yields as a function of electron energy show large differences, with the relatively sharp resonances of the monomer being replaced by broad profiles peaking at much higher electron energies. A third experiment involved DEA of Co(CO)3NO on a C60 molecule in an attempt to simulate the effect of a surface. Once again, broad ion yield curves are seen, but CO loss now becomes the most probable reaction channel. The implication of these findings for understanding focused electron beam induced deposition of cobalt is described. PMID:26401190

GAD vaccine reduces insulin loss in recently diagnosed type 1 diabetes: findings from a Bayesian meta-analysis.

PubMed

Beam, Craig A; MacCallum, Colleen; Herold, Kevan C; Wherrett, Diane K; Palmer, Jerry; Ludvigsson, Johnny

2017-01-01

GAD is a major target of the autoimmune response that occurs in type 1 diabetes mellitus. Randomised controlled clinical trials of a GAD + alum vaccine in human participants have so far given conflicting results. In this study, we sought to see whether a clearer answer to the question of whether GAD65 has an effect on C-peptide could be reached by combining individual-level data from the randomised controlled trials using Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate the probability of a positive biological effect (a reduction in C-peptide loss compared with placebo approximately 1 year after the GAD vaccine). We estimate that there is a 98% probability that 20 μg GAD with alum administered twice yields a positive biological effect. The effect is probably a 15-20% reduction in the loss of C-peptide at approximately 1 year after treatment. This translates to an annual expected loss of between -0.250 and -0.235 pmol/ml in treated patients compared with an expected 2 h AUC loss of -0.294 pmol/ml at 1 year for untreated newly diagnosed patients. The biological effect of this vaccination should be developed further in order to reach clinically desirable reductions in insulin loss in patients recently diagnosed with type 1 diabetes.

A study into the loss of lock of the space telescope fine guidance sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polites, M. E.

1983-01-01

The results of a study into the loss of lock phenomenon associated with the Space Telescope Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) are documented. The primary cause of loss of lock has been found to be a combination of cosmic ray spikes and photon noise due to a 14.5 Mv star. The probability of maintaining lock versus time is estimated both for the baseline FGS design and with parameter changes in the FGS firmware which will improve the probability of maintaining lock. The parameters varied are changeable in-flight from the ground and hence do not impact the design of the FGS hardware.

Osmium Atoms and Os2 Molecules Move Faster on Selenium-Doped Compared to Sulfur-Doped Boronic Graphenic Surfaces.

PubMed

Barry, Nicolas P E; Pitto-Barry, Anaïs; Tran, Johanna; Spencer, Simon E F; Johansen, Adam M; Sanchez, Ana M; Dove, Andrew P; O'Reilly, Rachel K; Deeth, Robert J; Beanland, Richard; Sadler, Peter J

2015-07-28

We deposited Os atoms on S- and Se-doped boronic graphenic surfaces by electron bombardment of micelles containing 16e complexes [Os(p-cymene)(1,2-dicarba-closo-dodecarborane-1,2-diselenate/dithiolate)] encapsulated in a triblock copolymer. The surfaces were characterized by energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) analysis and electron energy loss spectroscopy of energy filtered TEM (EFTEM). Os atoms moved ca. 26× faster on the B/Se surface compared to the B/S surface (233 ± 34 pm·s(-1) versus 8.9 ± 1.9 pm·s(-1)). Os atoms formed dimers with an average Os-Os distance of 0.284 ± 0.077 nm on the B/Se surface and 0.243 ± 0.059 nm on B/S, close to that in metallic Os. The Os2 molecules moved 0.83× and 0.65× more slowly than single Os atoms on B/S and B/Se surfaces, respectively, and again markedly faster (ca. 20×) on the B/Se surface (151 ± 45 pm·s(-1) versus 7.4 ± 2.8 pm·s(-1)). Os atom motion did not follow Brownian motion and appears to involve anchoring sites, probably S and Se atoms. The ability to control the atomic motion of metal atoms and molecules on surfaces has potential for exploitation in nanodevices of the future.

The impact of hurricane Katrina on the mental and physical health of low-income parents in New Orleans.

PubMed

Rhodes, Jean; Chan, Christian; Paxson, Christina; Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Waters, Mary; Fussell, Elizabeth

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to document changes in mental and physical health among 392 low-income parents exposed to Hurricane Katrina and to explore how hurricane-related stressors and loss relate to post-Katrina well-being. The prevalence of probable serious mental illness doubled, and nearly half of the respondents exhibited probable posttraumatic stress disorder. Higher levels of hurricane-related loss and stressors were generally associated with worse health outcomes, controlling for baseline sociodemographic and health measures. Higher baseline resources predicted fewer hurricane-associated stressors, but the consequences of stressors and loss were similar regardless of baseline resources. Adverse health consequences of Hurricane Katrina persisted for a year or more and were most severe for those experiencing the most stressors and loss. Long-term health and mental health services are needed for low-income disaster survivors, especially those who experience disaster-related stressors and loss.

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Mental and Physical Health of Low-Income Parents in New Orleans

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Jean; Chan, Christian; Paxson, Christina; Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Waters, Mary; Fussell, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to document changes in mental and physical health among 392 low-income parents exposed to Hurricane Katrina and to explore how hurricane-related stressors and loss relate to post-Katrina well being. The prevalence of probable serious mental illness doubled, and nearly half of the respondents exhibited probable PTSD. Higher levels of hurricane-related loss and stressors were generally associated with worse health outcomes, controlling for baseline socio-demographic and health measures. Higher baseline resources predicted fewer hurricane-associated stressors, but the consequences of stressors and loss were similar regardless of baseline resources. Adverse health consequences of Hurricane Katrina persisted for a year or more, and were most severe for those experiencing the most stressors and loss. Long-term health and mental health services are needed for low-income disaster survivors, especially those who experience disaster-related stressors and loss. PMID:20553517

After the deluge: Establishing rates of geographically isolated wetland loss within the prairie pothole region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serran, J.; Creed, I. F.

2014-12-01

Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) from the prairie pothole region of North America are particularly vulnerable to loss and increasing urban, agricultural, and natural resource development pressures continue to place these wetlands at risk. Although small in area and low in surface hydrologic connectivity, GIWs provide important functions such as flood control and water purification and their loss has been recognized as a contributing factor to the eutrophication of Lake Winnipeg. Within Canada, GIW loss can be attributed to the lack of high-resolution wetland inventories and the lack of information about historic wetland loss rates. In this study, we tested an approach to estimate GIW loss by improving their detection and delineation. To initialize our work, a high-resolution wetland inventory was created using a novel approach that fuses LiDAR data (probability of wetland) with aerial photographs (to distinguish open water and wet meadow) for the Beaverhill watershed, a major tributary of the North Saskatchewan watershed. Our wetland mapping results validated our ability to detect wetlands on the landscape. Secondly, we applied a power law area-frequency function to an aerial photograph time series spanning the watershed's natural climate variation range (1960 to present) to estimate historic wetland loss, with historic wetland loss determined via a break in slope in the power law function. Our analysis revealed ongoing loss of small GIWs in the watershed, despite the implementation of wetland policy measures to mitigate this loss. This ongoing GIW loss is particularly detrimental as it is concomitant with a loss in the important associated ecosystem functions of these GIWs, which has serious repercussions for downstream waters. Overall, our findings support a shift in wetland policies from area to function assessments that provide governments with tools to manage the potential consequences of wetland loss in terms of increased flooding and pollution of downstream waters.

A pharmaco-economic analysis of patients with schizophrenia switching to generic risperidone involving a possible compliance loss.

PubMed

Treur, Maarten; Heeg, Bart; Möller, Hans-Jürgen; Schmeding, Annette; van Hout, Ben

2009-02-18

As schizophrenia patients are typically suspicious of, or are hostile to changes they may be reluctant to accept generic substitution, possibly affecting compliance. This may counteract drug costs savings due to less symptom control and increased hospitalization risk. Although compliance losses following generic substitution have not been quantified so far, one can estimate the possible health-economic consequences. The current study aims to do so by considering the case of risperidone in Germany. An existing DES model was adapted to compare staying on branded risperidone with generic substitution. Differences include the probability of non-compliance and medication costs. Incremental probability of non-compliance after generic substitution was varied between 2.5% and 10%, while generic medication costs were assumed to be 40% lower. Effect of medication price was assessed as well as the effect of applying compliance losses to all treatment settings. The probability of staying on branded risperidone being cost-effective was calculated for various outcomes of a hypothetical study that would investigate non-compliance following generic substitution of risperidone. If the incremental probability of non-compliance after generic substitution is 2.5%, 5.0%, 7.5% and 10% respectively, incremental effects of staying on branded risperidone are 0.004, 0.007, 0.011 and 0.015 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Incremental costs are euro757, euro343, -euro123 and -euro554 respectively. Benefits of staying on branded risperidone include improved symptom control and fewer hospitalizations. If generic substitution results in a 5.2% higher probability of non-compliance, the model predicts staying on branded risperidone to be cost-effective (NICE threshold of 30,000 per QALY gained). Compliance losses of more than 6.9% makes branded risperidone the dominant alternative. Results are sensitive to the locations at which compliance loss is applied and the price of generic risperidone. The probability that staying on branded risperidone is cost-effective would increase with larger compliance differences and more patients included in the hypothetical study. The model predicts that it is cost-effective to keep a patient with schizophrenia in Germany on branded risperidone instead of switching him/her to generic risperidone (assuming a 40% reduction in medication costs), if the incremental probability of becoming non-compliant after generic substitution exceeds 5.2%.

Sufficient Statistics for Divergence and the Probability of Misclassification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quirein, J.

1972-01-01

One particular aspect is considered of the feature selection problem which results from the transformation x=Bz, where B is a k by n matrix of rank k and k is or = to n. It is shown that in general, such a transformation results in a loss of information. In terms of the divergence, this is equivalent to the fact that the average divergence computed using the variable x is less than or equal to the average divergence computed using the variable z. A loss of information in terms of the probability of misclassification is shown to be equivalent to the fact that the probability of misclassification computed using variable x is greater than or equal to the probability of misclassification computed using variable z. First, the necessary facts relating k-dimensional and n-dimensional integrals are derived. Then the mentioned results about the divergence and probability of misclassification are derived. Finally it is shown that if no information is lost (in x = Bz) as measured by the divergence, then no information is lost as measured by the probability of misclassification.

Prediction of In-Space Durability of Protected Polymers Based on Ground Laboratory Thermal Energy Atomic Oxygen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, Bruce A.; deGroh, Kim K.; Rutledge, Sharon; DiFilippo, Frank J.

1996-01-01

The probability of atomic oxygen reacting with polymeric materials is orders of magnitude lower at thermal energies (greater than O.1 eV) than at orbital impact energies (4.5 eV). As a result, absolute atomic oxygen fluxes at thermal energies must be orders of magnitude higher than orbital energy fluxes, to produce the same effective fluxes (or same oxidation rates) for polymers. These differences can cause highly pessimistic durability predictions for protected polymers and polymers which develop protective metal oxide surfaces as a result of oxidation if one does not make suitable calibrations. A comparison was conducted of undercut cavities below defect sites in protected polyimide Kapton samples flown on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) with similar samples exposed in thermal energy oxygen plasma. The results of this comparison were used to quantify predicted material loss in space based on material loss in ground laboratory thermal energy plasma testing. A microindent hardness comparison of surface oxidation of a silicone flown on the Environmental Oxygen Interaction with Materials-III (EOIM-III) experiment with samples exposed in thermal energy plasmas was similarly used to calibrate the rate of oxidation of silicone in space relative to samples in thermal energy plasmas exposed to polyimide Kapton effective fluences.

Flexible Charged Macromolecules on Mixed Fluid Lipid Membranes: Theory and Monte Carlo Simulations

PubMed Central

Tzlil, Shelly; Ben-Shaul, Avinoam

2005-01-01

Fluid membranes containing charged lipids enhance binding of oppositely charged proteins by mobilizing these lipids into the interaction zone, overcoming the concomitant entropic losses due to lipid segregation and lower conformational freedom upon macromolecule adsorption. We study this energetic-entropic interplay using Monte Carlo simulations and theory. Our model system consists of a flexible cationic polyelectrolyte, interacting, via Debye-Hückel and short-ranged repulsive potentials, with membranes containing neutral lipids, 1% tetravalent, and 10% (or 1%) monovalent anionic lipids. Adsorption onto a fluid membrane is invariably stronger than to an equally charged frozen or uniform membrane. Although monovalent lipids may suffice for binding rigid macromolecules, polyvalent counter-lipids (e.g., phosphatidylinositol 4,5 bisphosphate), whose entropy loss upon localization is negligible, are crucial for binding flexible macromolecules, which lose conformational entropy upon adsorption. Extending Rosenbluth's Monte Carlo scheme we directly simulate polymer adsorption on fluid membranes. Yet, we argue that similar information could be derived from a biased superposition of quenched membrane simulations. Using a simple cell model we account for surface concentration effects, and show that the average adsorption probabilities on annealed and quenched membranes coincide at vanishing surface concentrations. We discuss the relevance of our model to the electrostatic-switch mechanism of, e.g., the myristoylated alanine-rich C kinase substrate protein. PMID:16126828

Multiscale Modeling of Ablation and Pyrolysis in PICA-Like materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachaud, Jean; Mansour, Nagi N.

2008-01-01

During atmospheric entry of planetary probes, the thermal protection system (TIPS) of the probe is exposed to high temperatures under low pressures. In these conditions, carbonous fibrous TIPS materials may undergo oxidation leading to mass loss and wall recession called ablation. This work aims to improve the understanding of material/environment interactions through a study of the coupling between oxygen transport in the Knudsen regime, heterogeneous oxidation of carbon, and surface recession. A 3D Random Walk Monte Carlo simulation tool is used for this study. The fibrous architecture of a model material, consisting of high porosity random array of carbon fibers, is numerically represented on a 3D Cartesian grid. Mass transport in the Knudsen regime from the boundary layer to the surface, and inside this porous material is simulated by random walk. A reaction probability is used to simulate the heterogeneous oxidation reaction. The surface recession of the fibers is followed by front tracking using a simplified marching cube approach. The output data of the simulations are ablation velocity and dynamic evolution of the material porosity. A parametric study is carried out to analyze the material behavior as a function of Knudsen number for the porous media (length of the mean free path compared to the mean pore diameter) and the intrinsic reactivity of the carbon fibers. The model is applied to Stardust mission reentry conditions and explains the unexpected behavior of the TIPS material that underwent mass loss in volume.

Analysis of factors controlling soil phosphorus loss with surface runoff in Huihe National Nature Reserve by principal component and path analysis methods.

PubMed

He, Jing; Su, Derong; Lv, Shihai; Diao, Zhaoyan; Bu, He; Wo, Qiang

2018-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loss with surface runoff accounts for the P input to and acceleration of eutrophication of the freshwater. Many studies have focused on factors affecting P loss with surface runoff from soils, but rarely on the relationship among these factors. In the present study, rainfall simulation on P loss with surface runoff was conducted in Huihe National Nature Reserve, in Hulunbeier grassland, China, and the relationships between P loss with surface runoff, soil properties, and rainfall conditions were examined. Principal component analysis and path analysis were used to analyze the direct and indirect effects on P loss with surface runoff. The results showed that P loss with surface runoff was closely correlated with soil electrical conductivity, soil pH, soil Olsen P, soil total nitrogen (TN), soil total phosphorus (TP), and soil organic carbon (SOC). The main driving factors which influenced P loss with surface runoff were soil TN, soil pH, soil Olsen P, and soil water content. Path analysis and determination coefficient analysis indicated that the standard multiple regression equation for P loss with surface runoff and each main factor was Y = 7.429 - 0.439 soil TN - 6.834 soil pH + 1.721 soil Olsen-P + 0.183 soil water content (r = 0.487, p < 0.01, n = 180). Soil TN, soil pH, soil Olsen P, and soil water content and the interactions between them were the main factors affecting P loss with surface runoff. The effect of physical and chemical properties of undisturbed soils on P loss with surface runoff was discussed, and the soil water content and soil Olsen P were strongly positive influences on the P loss with surface runoff.

Silicon Framework Allotropes for Li-ion and Na-ion Batteries: New Insight for a Reversible Capacity.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzouk, Asma; Soto, Fernando; Burgos, Juan; Balbuena, Perla; El-Mellouhi, Fadwa

Silicon has the capacity to host a large amount of Li which makes it an attractive anode material despite suffering from swelling problem leading to irreversible capacity loss. The possibility of an easy extraction of Na atoms from Si24Na4 inspired us to adopt the Si24 as an anode material for Lithium-ion and sodium-ion Batteries. Using DFT, we evaluate the specific capacity and the intercalation potential of Si24 allotrope. Enhanced capacities are sought by designing a new silicon allotrope. We demonstrated that these Si24 allotropes show a negligible volume expansion and conserve their periodic structures after the maximum insertion/disinsertion of the ions which is crucial to prevent the capacity loss during cycling. DFT and ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) studies give insights on the most probable surface adsorption and reaction sites, lithiation and sodiation, as well as initial stages of SEI formation and ionic diffusion. Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF) (NPRP 7-162-2-077).

Rank-k Maximal Statistics for Divergence and Probability of Misclassification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decell, H. P., Jr.

1972-01-01

A technique is developed for selecting from n-channel multispectral data some k combinations of the n-channels upon which to base a given classification technique so that some measure of the loss of the ability to distinguish between classes, using the compressed k-dimensional data, is minimized. Information loss in compressing the n-channel data to k channels is taken to be the difference in the average interclass divergences (or probability of misclassification) in n-space and in k-space.

Probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature of the zero level surface of a random function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannay, J. H.

2018-04-01

A rather natural construction for a smooth random surface in space is the level surface of value zero, or ‘nodal’ surface f(x,y,z)  =  0, of a (real) random function f; the interface between positive and negative regions of the function. A physically significant local attribute at a point of a curved surface is its Gaussian curvature (the product of its principal curvatures) because, when integrated over the surface it gives the Euler characteristic. Here the probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature at a random point on the nodal surface f  =  0 is calculated for a statistically homogeneous (‘stationary’) and isotropic zero mean Gaussian random function f. Capitalizing on the isotropy, a ‘fixer’ device for axes supplies the probability distribution directly as a multiple integral. Its evaluation yields an explicit algebraic function with a simple average. Indeed, this average Gaussian curvature has long been known. For a non-zero level surface instead of the nodal one, the probability distribution is not fully tractable, but is supplied as an integral expression.

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making.

PubMed

Ojala, Karita E; Janssen, Lieneke K; Hashemi, Mahur M; Timmer, Monique H M; Geurts, Dirk E M; Ter Huurne, Niels P; Cools, Roshan; Sescousse, Guillaume

2018-01-01

Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls ( n = 21) and pathological gamblers ( n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making.

Winter habitat selection of mule deer before and during development of a natural gas field

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sawyer, H.; Nielson, R.M.; Lindzey, F.; McDonald, L.L.

2006-01-01

Increased levels of natural gas exploration, development, and production across the Intermountain West have created a variety of concerns for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations, including direct habitat loss to road and well-pad construction and indirect habitat losses that may occur if deer use declines near roads or well pads. We examined winter habitat selection patterns of adult female mule deer before and during the first 3 years of development in a natural gas field in western Wyoming. We used global positioning system (GPS) locations collected from a sample of adult female mule deer to model relative frequency or probability of use as a function of habitat variables. Model coefficients and predictive maps suggested mule deer were less likely to occupy areas in close proximity to well pads than those farther away. Changes in habitat selection appeared to be immediate (i.e., year 1 of development), and no evidence of well-pad acclimation occurred through the course of the study; rather, mule deer selected areas farther from well pads as development progressed. Lower predicted probabilities of use within 2.7 to 3.7 km of well pads suggested indirect habitat losses may be substantially larger than direct habitat losses. Additionally, some areas classified as high probability of use by mule deer before gas field development changed to areas of low use following development, and others originally classified as low probability of use were used more frequently as the field developed. If areas with high probability of use before development were those preferred by the deer, observed shifts in their distribution as development progressed were toward less-preferred and presumably less-suitable habitats.

Influences on formation and dissipation of high arctic fogs during summer and autumn and their interaction with aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, E. Douglas; Bigg, E. Keith

1996-04-01

Radiosondes established that the air in the near surface mixed layer was very frequently near saturation during the International Arctic Ocean Expedition 1991 which must have been a large factor in the frequent occurrence of fogs. Fogs were divided into groups of summer, transition and winter types depending on whether the advecting air, the ice surface or sea surface respectively was warmest and the source of heat. The probability of summer and transition fogs increased at air temperatures near 0°C while winter fogs had a maximum probability of occurrence at air temperatures between -5 and -10°C. Advection from the open sea was the primary cause of the summer group, the probability of occurrence being high during the 1st day's travel and appreciable until the end of 3days. Transition fogs reached its maximum probability of formation on the 4th day of advection. Radiation heating and cooling of the ice both appeared to have influenced summer and transition fogs, while winter fogs were strongly favoured by the long wave radiation loss at clear sky conditions. Another cause of winter fogs was the heat and moisture source of open leads. Wind speed was also a factor in the probability of fog formation, summer and transition fogs being favoured by winds between 2 and 6ms1, while winter fogs were favoured by wind speeds of only 1ms1. Concentrations of fog drops were generally lower than those of the cloud condensation nuclei active at 0.1%, having a median of 3cm3. While a well-defined modal diameter of 20 25μm was found in all fogs, a second transient mode at about 100μm was also frequently observed. The observation of fog bows with supernumerary arcs pointed to the existence of fog droplets as large as 200 300µm in diameter at fog top. It is suggested that the large drops originated from droplets grown near the fog top and were brought to near the surface by an overturning of the fog layer. Shear induced wave motions and roll vortices were found to cause perturbations in the near-surface layer and appeared to influence fog formation and dissipation. The low observed droplet concentration in fogs limits their ability to modify aerosol number concentrations and size distributions, the persistent overlying stratus being a more likely site for effective interactions. It is suggested that variations in the fog formation described in this paper may be a useful indicator of circulation changes in the arctic consequent upon a global warming.

Short-Run Effects of Parental Job Loss on Children's Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Ann Huff; Schaller, Jessamyn

2011-01-01

We study the relationship between parental job loss and children's academic achievement using data on job loss and grade retention from the 1996, 2001, and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that a parental job loss increases the probability of children's grade retention by 0.8 percentage points, or around 15%.…

The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2006-04-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Multisampling suprathreshold perimetry: a comparison with conventional suprathreshold and full-threshold strategies by computer simulation.

PubMed

Artes, Paul H; Henson, David B; Harper, Robert; McLeod, David

2003-06-01

To compare a multisampling suprathreshold strategy with conventional suprathreshold and full-threshold strategies in detecting localized visual field defects and in quantifying the area of loss. Probability theory was applied to examine various suprathreshold pass criteria (i.e., the number of stimuli that have to be seen for a test location to be classified as normal). A suprathreshold strategy that requires three seen or three missed stimuli per test location (multisampling suprathreshold) was selected for further investigation. Simulation was used to determine how the multisampling suprathreshold, conventional suprathreshold, and full-threshold strategies detect localized field loss. To determine the systematic error and variability in estimates of loss area, artificial fields were generated with clustered defects (0-25 field locations with 8- and 16-dB loss) and, for each condition, the number of test locations classified as defective (suprathreshold strategies) and with pattern deviation probability less than 5% (full-threshold strategy), was derived from 1000 simulated test results. The full-threshold and multisampling suprathreshold strategies had similar sensitivity to field loss. Both detected defects earlier than the conventional suprathreshold strategy. The pattern deviation probability analyses of full-threshold results underestimated the area of field loss. The conventional suprathreshold perimetry also underestimated the defect area. With multisampling suprathreshold perimetry, the estimates of defect area were less variable and exhibited lower systematic error. Multisampling suprathreshold paradigms may be a powerful alternative to other strategies of visual field testing. Clinical trials are needed to verify these findings.

Diamond /111/ studied by electron energy loss spectroscopy in the characteristic loss region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pepper, S. V.

1982-01-01

Unoccupied surface states on diamond (111) annealed at greater than 900 C are studied by electron energy loss spectroscopy with valence band excitation. A feature found at 2.1 eV loss energy is attributed to an excitation from occupied surface states into unoccupied surface states of energy within the bulk band gap. A surface band gap of approximately 1 eV is estimated. This result supports a previous suggestion for unoccupied band gap states based on core level energy loss spectroscopy. Using the valence band excitation energy loss spectrosocpy, it is also suggested that hydrogen is removed from the as-polished diamond surface by a Menzel-Gomer-Redhead mechanism.

Balloon-Borne Measurements of CLO, NO and O3 in a Volcanic Cloud: An Analysis of Heterogeneous Chemistry between 20 and 30 KM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dessler, A. E.; Stimpfle, R. M.; Daube, B. C.; Salawitch, R. J.; Weinstock, E. M.; Judah, D. M.; Burley, J. D.; Munger, J. W.; Wofsy, S. C.; Anderson, J. G.;

Geological Mapping of Pluto and Charon Using New Horizons Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J. M.; Spencer, J. R.; McKinnon, W. B.; Howard, A. D.; White, O. M.; Umurhan, O. M.; Schenk, P. M.; Beyer, R. A.; Singer, K.; Stern, S. A.; Weaver, H. A.; Young, L. A.; Ennico Smith, K.; Olkin, C.; Horizons Geology, New; Geophysics Imaging Team

2016-06-01

Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Systematic mapping has revealed that much of Pluto's surface can be attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many mapped valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required internal heating. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planum can be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. On the other hand, the prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planum, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident in the mapping of Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

The Geology of Pluto and Charon as Revealed by New Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Jeffrey M.; Spencer, John R.; McKinnon, William B.; Stern, S. Alan; Young, Leslie A.; Weaver, Harold A.; Olkin, Cathy B.; Ennico, Kim; New Horizons GGI Team

2016-04-01

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft has revealed that Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Much of Pluto's surface can be attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required internal heating. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planum can be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. On the other hand, the prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planum, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident on Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

The Geology of Pluto and Charon as Revealed by New Horizons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Jeffrey M.; Spencer, John R.; McKinnon, William B.; Stern, S. Alan; Young, Leslie A.; Weaver, Harold A.; Olkin, Cathy B.; Ennico, Kim

2016-01-01

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft has revealed that Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Much of Pluto's surface can be attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required internal heating. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planum can be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. On the other hand, the prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planum, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident on Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

2010-06-01

A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US 90 840 to US 779 500 and the average annual total loss was estimated as US 35 000. The annual probability of a person most at risk travelling in a bus, lorry, car, motorbike and train is less than 10-4/annum in all the time periods considered. The detailed estimation of direct and indirect risk will facilitate developing landslide risk mitigation and management strategies for transportation lines in the study area.

Triggering the Activation of Main-belt Comets: The Effect of Porosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haghighipour, N.; Maindl, T. I.; Schäfer, C. M.; Wandel, O. J.

2018-03-01

It has been suggested that the comet-like activity of Main-belt comets (MBCs) is due to the sublimation of sub-surface water-ice that is exposed when these objects are impacted by meter-sized bodies. We recently examined this scenario and showed that such impacts can, in fact, excavate ice and present a plausible mechanism for triggering the activation of MBCs. However, because the purpose of that study was to prove the concept and identify the most viable ice-longevity model, the porosity of the object and the loss of ice due to the heat of impact were ignored. In this paper, we extend our impact simulations to porous materials and account for the loss of ice due to an impact. We show that for a porous MBC, impact craters are deeper, reaching to ∼15 m, implying that if the activation of MBCs is due to the sublimation of sub-surface ice, this ice has to be within the top 15 m of the object. Results also indicate that the loss of ice due to the heat of impact is negligible, and the re-accretion of ejected ice is small. The latter suggests that the activities of current MBCs are most probably from multiple impact sites. Our study also indicates that for sublimation from multiple sites to account for the observed activity of the currently known MBCs, the water content of MBCs (and their parent asteroids) needs to be larger than the values traditionally considered in models of terrestrial planet formation.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management.

Determining animal drug combinations based on efficacy and safety.

PubMed

Kratzer, D D; Geng, S

1986-08-01

A procedure for deriving drug combinations for animal health is used to derive an optimal combination of 200 mg of novobiocin and 650,000 IU of penicillin for nonlactating cow mastitis treatment. The procedure starts with an estimated second order polynomial response surface equation. That surface is translated into a probability surface with contours called isoprobs. The isoprobs show drug amounts that have equal probability to produce maximal efficacy. Safety factors are incorporated into the probability surface via a noncentrality parameter that causes the isoprobs to expand as safety decreases, resulting in lower amounts of drug being used.

Ozone-surface interactions: Investigations of mechanisms, kinetics, mass transport, and implications for indoor air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, Glenn Charles

1999-12-01

In this dissertation, results are presented of laboratory investigations and mathematical modeling efforts designed to better understand the interactions of ozone with surfaces. In the laboratory, carpet and duct materials were exposed to ozone and measured ozone uptake kinetics and the ozone induced emissions of volatile organic compounds. To understand the results of the experiments, mathematical methods were developed to describe dynamic indoor aldehyde concentrations, mass transport of reactive species to smooth surfaces, the equivalent reaction probability of whole carpet due to the surface reactivity of fibers and carpet backing, and ozone aging of surfaces. Carpets, separated carpet fibers, andmore » separated carpet backing all tended to release aldehydes when exposed to ozone. Secondary emissions were mostly n-nonanal and several other smaller aldehydes. The pattern of emissions suggested that vegetable oils may be precursors for these oxidized emissions. Several possible precursors and experiments in which linseed and tung oils were tested for their secondary emission potential were discussed. Dynamic emission rates of 2-nonenal from a residential carpet may indicate that intermediate species in the oxidation of conjugated olefins can significantly delay aldehyde emissions and act as reservoir for these compounds. The ozone induced emission rate of 2-nonenal, a very odorous compound, can result in odorous indoor concentrations for several years. Surface ozone reactivity is a key parameter in determining the flux of ozone to a surface, is parameterized by the reaction probability, which is simply the probability that an ozone molecule will be irreversibly consumed when it strikes a surface. In laboratory studies of two residential and two commercial carpets, the ozone reaction probability for carpet fibers, carpet backing and the equivalent reaction probability for whole carpet were determined. Typically reaction probability values for these materials were 10 -7, 10 -5, and 10 -5 respectively. To understand how internal surface area influences the equivalent reaction probability of whole carpet, a model of ozone diffusion into and reaction with internal carpet components was developed. This was then used to predict apparent reaction probabilities for carpet. He combines this with a modified model of turbulent mass transfer developed by Liu, et al. to predict deposition rates and indoor ozone concentrations. The model predicts that carpet should have an equivalent reaction probability of about 10 -5, matching laboratory measurements of the reaction probability. For both carpet and duct materials, surfaces become progressively quenched (aging), losing the ability to react or otherwise take up ozone. He evaluated the functional form of aging and find that the reaction probability follows a power function with respect to the cumulative uptake of ozone. To understand ozone aging of surfaces, he developed several mathematical descriptions of aging based on two different mechanisms. The observed functional form of aging is mimicked by a model which describes ozone diffusion with internal reaction in a solid. He shows that the fleecy nature of carpet materials in combination with the model of ozone diffusion below a fiber surface and internal reaction may explain the functional form and the magnitude of power function parameters observed due to ozone interactions with carpet. The ozone induced aldehyde emissions, measured from duct materials, were combined with an indoor air quality model to show that concentrations of aldehydes indoors may approach odorous levels. He shows that ducts are unlikely to be a significant sink for ozone due to the low reaction probability in combination with the short residence time of air in ducts.« less

Using tracers to evaluate streamflow gain-loss characteristics of Terror Creek, in the vicinity of a mine-permit area, Delta County, Colorado, water year 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Cory A.; Leib, Kenneth J.

2005-01-01

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, initiated a study to characterize streamflow gainloss in a reach of Terror Creek, in the vicinity of a mine-permit area planned for future coal mining. This report describes the methods of the study and includes results from a comparison of two sets of streamflow measurements using tracer techniques following the constant-rate injection method. Two measurement sets were used to characterize the streamflow gain-loss associated with reservoir-supplemented streamflow conditions and with natural base-flow conditions. A comparison of the measurement sets indicates that the streamflow gain-loss characteristics of the Terror Creek study reach are consistent between the two hydrologic conditions evaluated. A substantial streamflow gain occurs between measurement locations 4 and 5 in both measurement sets, and streamflow is lost between measurement locations 5 and 7 (measurement set 1, measurement location 6 not visited) and 5 and 6 (measurement set 2). A comparison of the measurement sets above and below the mine-permit area (measurement locations 3 and 7) shows a consistent loss of 0.37 and 0.31 cubic foot per second (representing 5- and 12-percent streamflow losses normalized to measurement location 3) for measurement sets 1 and 2, respectively. This indicates that similar streamflow losses occur both during reservoir-supplemented and natural base-flow conditions, with a mean streamflow loss of 0.34 cubic foot per second for measurement sets 1 and 2. Findings from a previous investigation support the observed streamflow loss between measurement locations 3 and 7 in this study. The findings from the previous investigation indicate a streamflow loss of 0.59 cubic foot per second occurs between these measurement locations. Statistical testing of the differences in streamflow between measurement locations 3 and 7 indicates that there is a discernible streamflow loss. The p-value of 0.0236 for the parametric paired t-test indicates that there is a 2.36-percent probability of observing a sample mean difference of 0.34 cubic foot per second if the population mean is zero. The p-value of 0.125 for the nonparametric exact Wilcoxon signed rank test indicates that there is a 12.5-percent probability of observing a sample mean difference this large if the population mean is zero. The similarity in streamflow gain-loss between measurement sets indicates that the process controlling streamflow may be the same between the two hydrologic conditions evaluated. Gains between measurement locations 4 and 5 may be related to hyporheic flow from tributaries that were dry during the study. No other obvious sources of surface water were identified during the investigation. The cause for the observed streamflow loss between measurement locations 5 and 6 is unknown but may be related to mapped local faulting, 100 years of coal mining in the area, and aquifer recharge.

Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

2013-06-01

Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Barros, D F; Albernaz, A L M

2014-11-01

Wetlands cover approximately 6% of the Earth's surface. They are frequently found at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and are strongly dependent on the water cycle. For this reason, wetlands are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Mangroves and floodplain ecosystems are some of the most important environments for the Amazonian population, as a source of proteins and income, and are thus the types of wetlands chosen for this review. Some of the main consequences that can be predicted from climate change for wetlands are modifications in hydrological regimes, which can cause intense droughts or inundations. A possible reduction in rainfall can cause a decrease of the areas of mangroves and floodplains, with a consequent decline in their species numbers. Conversely, an increase in rainfall would probably cause the substitution of plant species, which would not be able to survive under new conditions for a long period. An elevation in water temperature on the floodplains would cause an increase in frequency and duration of hypoxic or anoxic episodes, which might further lead to a reduction in growth rates or the reproductive success of many species. In mangroves, an increase in water temperature would influence the sea level, causing losses of these environments through coastal erosion processes. Therefore, climate change will likely cause the loss of, or reduction in, Amazonian wetlands and will challenge the adaptability of species, composition and distribution, which will probably have consequences for the human population that depend on them.

Short-Run Effects of Parental Job Loss on Children's Academic Achievement. NBER Working Paper No. 15480

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Ann Huff; Schaller, Jessamyn

2009-01-01

We study the relationship between parental job loss and children's academic achievement using data on job loss and grade retention from the 1996, 2001, and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that a parental job loss increases the probability of children's grade retention by 0.8 percentage points, or around 15…

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmonds, L. D.

2016-01-01

Since advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmonds, L. D.

2016-01-01

Because advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

Osmium Atoms and Os2 Molecules Move Faster on Selenium-Doped Compared to Sulfur-Doped Boronic Graphenic Surfaces

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

We deposited Os atoms on S- and Se-doped boronic graphenic surfaces by electron bombardment of micelles containing 16e complexes [Os(p-cymene)(1,2-dicarba-closo-dodecarborane-1,2-diselenate/dithiolate)] encapsulated in a triblock copolymer. The surfaces were characterized by energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) analysis and electron energy loss spectroscopy of energy filtered TEM (EFTEM). Os atoms moved ca. 26× faster on the B/Se surface compared to the B/S surface (233 ± 34 pm·s–1versus 8.9 ± 1.9 pm·s–1). Os atoms formed dimers with an average Os–Os distance of 0.284 ± 0.077 nm on the B/Se surface and 0.243 ± 0.059 nm on B/S, close to that in metallic Os. The Os2 molecules moved 0.83× and 0.65× more slowly than single Os atoms on B/S and B/Se surfaces, respectively, and again markedly faster (ca. 20×) on the B/Se surface (151 ± 45 pm·s–1 versus 7.4 ± 2.8 pm·s–1). Os atom motion did not follow Brownian motion and appears to involve anchoring sites, probably S and Se atoms. The ability to control the atomic motion of metal atoms and molecules on surfaces has potential for exploitation in nanodevices of the future. PMID:26525180

Nitrogen loss and oxygen paradox in full-scale biofiltration for drinking water treatment.

PubMed

Yu, Xin; Qi, Zhihua; Zhang, Xiaojian; Yu, Ping; Liu, Bo; Zhang, Limin; Fu, Liang

2007-04-01

The nitrogen loss and DO paradox in full-scale biofiltration for drinking water treatment and the possible pathway responsible for them were investigated. A highly contaminated source water was treated at Pinghu Surface Water Plant using four biofilters, which resulted in a steady removal of NH(4)(+)-N (2.67mg/L), a great DO consumption (8.86 mg/L) and an increase in the concentration of NO(3)(-)-N (1.77mg/L). The nitrogen and DO balances indicated that about 13 NH(4)(+)-N was lost and the actual DO consumption was about 30% lower than the theoretical DO demand if nitrification was regarded as the only pathway to remove NH(4)(+)-N. The analysis of correlation coefficients analysis between several factors and the nitrogen loss suggested that "Aerobic deammonification", the coupling of shortcut nitrification and the anaerobic ammonia oxidation (Anammox) in an aerobic environment, might be the most probable pathways to explain the occurrence of these phenomena. According to this mechanism, about 57% NH(4)(+)-N was removed through complete nitrification and about 21.5% NH(4)(+)-N was incompletely nitrified into NO(2)(-)-N. The latter then involved in Anammox as the electron acceptor with the remaining NH(4)(+)-N as the electron donor. Since the Anammox reaction is anaerobic, the nitrogen loss and DO paradox can be justified.

Dissociative Ionization and Thermal Decomposition of Cyclopentanone

PubMed Central

Pastoors, Johan I. M.; Bodi, Andras; Hemberger, Patrick

2017-01-01

Abstract Despite the growing use of renewable and sustainable biofuels in transportation, their combustion chemistry is poorly understood, limiting our efforts to reduce harmful emissions. Here we report on the (dissociative) ionization and the thermal decomposition mechanism of cyclopentanone, studied using imaging photoelectron photoion coincidence spectroscopy. The fragmentation of the ions is dominated by loss of CO, C2H4, and C2H5, leading to daughter ions at m/z 56 and 55. Exploring the C5H8O. + potential energy surface reveals hydrogen tunneling to play an important role in low‐energy decarbonylation and probably also in the ethene‐loss processes, yielding 1‐butene and methylketene cations, respectively. At higher energies, pathways without a reverse barrier open up to oxopropenyl and cyclopropanone cations by ethyl‐radical loss and a second ethene‐loss channel, respectively. A statistical Rice–Ramsperger–Kassel–Marcus model is employed to test the viability of this mechanism. The pyrolysis of cyclopentanone is studied at temperatures ranging from about 800 to 1100 K. Closed‐shell pyrolysis products, namely 1,3‐butadiene, ketene, propyne, allene, and ethene, are identified based on their photoion mass‐selected threshold photoelectron spectrum. Furthermore, reactive radical species such as allyl, propargyl, and methyl are found. A reaction mechanism is derived incorporating both stable and reactive species, which were not predicted in prior computational studies. PMID:28692134

Evaluating the potential of 'on-line' constructed wetlands for mitigating pesticide transfers from agricultural land to surface waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whelan, Michael; Ramos, Andre; Guymer, Ian; Villa, Raffaella; Jefferson, Bruce

2016-04-01

Pesticides make important contributions to modern agriculture but losses from land to water can present problems for environmental management, particularly in catchments where surface waters are abstracted for drinking water. Where artificial field drains represent a dominant pathway for pesticide transfers, buffer zones provide little mitigation potential. Instead, "on-line" constructed wetlands have been proposed as a potential means of reducing pesticide fluxes in drainage ditches and headwater streams. Here, we evaluate the potential of small free-surface wetlands to reduce pesticide concentrations in surface waters using a combination of field monitoring and numerical modelling. Two small constructed wetland systems in a first order catchment in Cambridgeshire, UK, were monitored over the 2014-2015 winter season. Discharge was measured at several flow control structures and samples were collected every eight hours and analysed for metaldehyde, a commonly-used molluscicide. Metaldehyde is moderately mobile and, like many other compounds, it has been regularly detected at high concentrations in surface water samples in a number of drinking water supply catchments in the UK over the past few years. However, it is unusually difficult to remove via conventional drinking water treatment which makes it particularly problematical for water companies. Metaldehyde losses from the upstream catchment were significant with peak concentrations occurring in the first storm events in early autumn, soon after application. Concentrations and loads appeared to be unaffected by transit through the wetland over a range of flow conditions - probably due to short solute residence times (quantified via several tracing experiments employing rhodamine WT - a fluorescent dye). A dynamic model, based on fugacity concepts, was constructed to describe chemical fate in the wetland system. The model was used to evaluate mitigation potential and management options under field conditions and for a range of different pesticides under alternative flow and wetland dimension scenarios. In agreement with observations, model predictions for metaldehyde losses in the monitored system were negligible. The scenario analysis suggested that, even for pesticides with a relatively short aquatic half life, wetland systems would need to be much larger than those studied here in order to get any appreciable attenuation. Shallow systems have highest potential for promoting losses due to biodegradation, if we assume that most degrading organisms reside in fixed biofilms in the sediment. Sorption is not predicted to represent a significant net sink, except over short time scales in the first runoff event after application.

Effect of Conflict Resolution Maneuver Execution Delay on Losses of Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cone, Andrew C.

2010-01-01

This paper examines uncertainty in the maneuver execution delay for data linked conflict resolution maneuvers. This uncertainty could cause the previously cleared primary conflict to reoccur or a secondary conflict to appear. Results show that the likelihood of a primary conflict reoccurring during a horizontal conflict resolution maneuver increases with larger initial turn-out angles and with shorter times until loss of separation. There is also a significant increase in the probability of a primary conflict reoccurring when the time until loss falls under three minutes. Increasing horizontal separation by an additional 1.5 nmi lowers the risk, but does not completely eliminate it. Secondary conflicts were shown to have a small probability of occurring in all tested configurations.

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

External auditory exostoses and hearing loss in the Shanidar 1 Neandertal

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The Late Pleistocene Shanidar 1 older adult male Neandertal is known for the crushing fracture of his left orbit with a probable reduction in vision, the loss of his right forearm and hand, and evidence of an abnormal gait, as well as probable diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis. He also exhibits advanced external auditory exostoses in his left auditory meatus and larger ones with complete bridging across the porus in the right meatus (both Grade 3). These growths indicate at least unilateral conductive hearing (CHL) loss, a serious sensory deprivation for a Pleistocene hunter-gatherer. This condition joins the meatal atresia of the Middle Pleistocene Atapuerca-SH Cr.4 in providing evidence of survival with conductive hearing loss (and hence serious sensory deprivation) among these Pleistocene humans. The presence of CHL in these fossils thereby reinforces the paleobiological and archeological evidence for supporting social matrices among these Pleistocene foraging peoples. PMID:29053746

An information processing view of framing effects: the role of causal schemas in decision making.

PubMed

Jou, J; Shanteau, J; Harris, R J

1996-01-01

People prefer a sure gain to a probable larger gain when the two choices are presented from a gain perspective, but a probable larger loss to a sure loss when the objectively identical choices are presented from a loss perspective. Such reversals of preference due to the context of the problem are known as framing effects. In the present study, schema activation and subjects' interpretations of the problems were examined as sources of the framing effects. Results showed that such effects could be eliminated by introducing into a problem a causal schema that provided a rationale for the reciprocal relationship between the gains and the losses. Moreover, when subjects were freed from framing they were consistently risk seeking in decisions about human life, but risk averse in decisions about property. Irrationality in choice behaviors and the ecological implication of framing effects are discussed.

High-Density Signal Interface Electromagnetic Radiation Prediction for Electromagnetic Compatibility Evaluation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halligan, Matthew

Radiated power calculation approaches for practical scenarios of incomplete high- density interface characterization information and incomplete incident power information are presented. The suggested approaches build upon a method that characterizes power losses through the definition of power loss constant matrices. Potential radiated power estimates include using total power loss information, partial radiated power loss information, worst case analysis, and statistical bounding analysis. A method is also proposed to calculate radiated power when incident power information is not fully known for non-periodic signals at the interface. Incident data signals are modeled from a two-state Markov chain where bit state probabilities aremore » derived. The total spectrum for windowed signals is postulated as the superposition of spectra from individual pulses in a data sequence. Statistical bounding methods are proposed as a basis for the radiated power calculation due to the statistical calculation complexity to find a radiated power probability density function.« less

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making

PubMed Central

Timmer, Monique H. M.; ter Huurne, Niels P.

2018-01-01

Abstract Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls (n = 21) and pathological gamblers (n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making. PMID:29632870

Evaluation of a mark-recapture method for estimating mortality and migration rates of stratified populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Rago, P.J.

1991-01-01

We simulated mark–recapture experiments to evaluate a method for estimating fishing mortality and migration rates of populations stratified at release and recovery. When fish released in two or more strata were recovered from different recapture strata in nearly the same proportions, conditional recapture probabilities were estimated outside the [0, 1] interval. The maximum likelihood estimates tended to be biased and imprecise when the patterns of recaptures produced extremely "flat" likelihood surfaces. Absence of bias was not guaranteed, however, in experiments where recapture rates could be estimated within the [0, 1] interval. Inadequate numbers of tag releases and recoveries also produced biased estimates, although the bias was easily detected by the high sampling variability of the estimates. A stratified tag–recapture experiment with sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) was used to demonstrate procedures for analyzing data that produce biased estimates of recapture probabilities. An estimator was derived to examine the sensitivity of recapture rate estimates to assumed differences in natural and tagging mortality, tag loss, and incomplete reporting of tag recoveries.

Martian Cratering 10. Progress in use of crater counts to interpret geological processes: Examples from two debris aprons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, William K.; Werner, Stephanie C.

2010-06-01

Recent controversies about systems of crater-count dating have been largely resolved, and with continuing refinements, crater counts will offer a fundamental geological tool to interpret not only ages, but also the nature of geological processes altering the surface of Mars. As an example of the latter technique, we present data on two debris aprons east of Hellas. The aprons show much shorter survival times of small craters than do the nearby contiguous plains. The order-of-magnitude depths of layers involved in the loss process can be judged from the depths of the affected craters. We infer that ice-rich layers in the top tens of meters of both aprons have lost crater topography within the last few 10 8 yr, probably due to flow or sublimation of ice-rich materials. Mantling by ice-rich deposits, associated with climate change cycles of obliquity change, has probably also affected both the aprons and the plains. The crater-count tool thus adds chronological and vertical dimensional information to purely morphological studies.

The effect of sewage pollution on the feeding behaviour and diet of Hediste (Nereis diversicolor (O.F. Müller, 1776)) in three estuaries in south-east England, with implications for saltmarsh erosion.

PubMed

Aberson, M J R; Bolam, S G; Hughes, R G

2016-04-15

Stable isotope analyses of the abundant infaunal polychaete Hediste diversicolor, recognised as an indicator of sewage pollution, support the hypothesis that nutrient enrichment promotes surface deposit feeding, over suspension feeding and predation. At sewage-polluted sites in three estuaries in SE England Hediste mainly consumed microphytobenthos, sediment organic matter and filamentous macroalgae Ulva spp. At cleaner sites Hediste relied more on suspension feeding and consumption of Spartina anglica. There were no consistent differences in Hediste densities between the polluted and cleaner sites, probably because of increased densities at the cleaner sites too, facilitated by the planting of Spartina and nitrogen enrichment there too, including from agricultural run-off. Increased nutrient enrichment and the artificial availability of Spartina have probably increased densities of, and deposit-feeding by, Hediste in the past half-century and contributed indirectly to saltmarsh losses, since deposit-feeding by Hediste has been implicated in recent saltmarsh erosion in SE England. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Potential for Check Reduction Using Surface Coatings

Treesearch

Raymond M. Rice; Eugene M. Wengert; J.G. Schroeder

1988-01-01

Surface checking in red oak causes considerable loss in lumber that is used in the furniture and flooring industry. In this series of experiments, a surface coating was applied to unseasoned, presurfaced red oak lumber in order to restrict the moisture loss from the surface to test the hypothesis that a reduction in the rate of surface moisture loss would reduce...

Decision Making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): Anterior Cingulate Cortex Signals Loss-Aversion but not the Infrequency of Risky Choices

PubMed Central

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W.; Bogg, Tim

2012-01-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision-making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss-aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss-aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward-seeking. However, in the cingulate and mainly bilateral IFG regions, BOLD activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings consistent with a reduced loss-aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision-making, as well as the importance of distinguishing decision and feedback signals. PMID:22707378

Modeling phosphorus losses from soils amended with cattle manures and chemical fertilizers.

PubMed

Wang, Zhaozhi; Zhang, T Q; Tan, C S; Vadas, P; Qi, Z M; Wellen, C

2018-05-22

While applied manure/fertilizer is an important source of P loss in surface runoff, few models simulate the direct transfer of phosphorus (P) from soil-surface-applied manure/fertilizer to surface runoff. The SurPhos model was tested with 2008-2010 growing season daily surface runoff data from clay loam experimental plots subject to different manure/fertilizer applications. Model performance was evaluated on the basis of the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of observed values (RSR). The model offered an acceptable performance in simulating soil labile P dynamics (R 2  = 0.75, NSE = 0.55, PBIAS = 10.43%, and RSR = 0.67) and dissolved reactive P (DRP) loss in surface runoff (R 2  ≥ 0.74 and NSE ≥ 0.69) for both solid and liquid cattle manure, as well as inorganic fertilizer. Simulated direct P loss in surface runoff from solid and liquid cattle manure accounted for 39% and 40% of total growing season DRP losses in surface runoff. To compensate for the unavailability of daily surface runoff observations under snow melt condition, the whole four years' (2008-2011) daily surface runoff predicted by EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used as SurPhos input. The accuracy of simulated DRP loss in surface runoff under the different manure/fertilizer treatments was acceptable (R 2  ≥ 0.55 and NSE ≥ 0.50). For the solid cattle manure treatment, of all annual DRP losses, 19% were derived directly from the manure. Beyond offering a reliable prediction of manure/fertilizer P loss in surface runoff, SurPhos quantified different sources of DRP loss and dynamic labile P in soil, allowing a better critical assessment of different P management measures' effectiveness in mitigating DRP losses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of liquid swine manure rate, incorporation, and timing of rainfall on phosphorus loss with surface runoff.

PubMed

Allen, Brett L; Mallarino, Antonio P

2008-01-01

Excessive manure phosphorus (P) application increases risk of P loss from fields. This study assessed total runoff P (TPR), bioavailable P (BAP), and dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentrations and loads in surface runoff after liquid swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) manure application with or without incorporation into soil and different timing of rainfall. Four replicated manure P treatments were applied in 2002 and in 2003 to two Iowa soils testing low in P managed with corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotations. Total P applied each time was 0 to 80 kg P ha(-1) at one site and 0 to 108 kg P ha(-1) at the other. Simulated rainfall was applied within 24 h of P application or after 10 to 16 d and 5 to 6 mo. Nonincorporated manure P increased DRP, BAP, and TPR concentrations and loads linearly or exponentially for 24-h and 10- to 16-d runoff events. On average for the 24-h events, DRP, BAP, and TPR concentrations were 5.4, 4.7, and 2.2 times higher, respectively, for nonincorporated manure than for incorporated manure; P loads were 3.8, 7.7, and 3.6 times higher; and DRP and BAP concentrations were 54% of TPR for nonincorporated manure and 22 to 25% for incorporated manure. A 10- to 16-d rainfall delay resulted in DRP, BAP, and TPR concentrations that were 3.1, 2.7, and 1.1 times lower, respectively, than for 24-h events across all nonincorporated P rates, sites, and years, whereas runoff P loads were 3.8, 3.6, and 1.6 times lower, respectively. A 5- to 6-mo simulated rainfall delay reduced runoff P to levels similar to control plots. Incorporating swine manure when the probability of immediate rainfall is high reduces the risk of P loss in surface runoff; however, this benefit sharply decreases with time.

A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

2018-01-01

Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

Relationship between Adolescent Risk Preferences on a Laboratory Task and Behavioral Measures of Risk-taking

PubMed Central

Rao, Uma; Sidhartha, Tanuj; Harker, Karen R.; Bidesi, Anup S.; Chen, Li-Ann; Ernst, Monique

2010-01-01

Purpose The goal of the study was to assess individual differences in risk-taking behavior among adolescents in the laboratory. A second aim was to evaluate whether the laboratory-based risk-taking behavior is associated with other behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Methods Eighty-two adolescents with no personal history of psychiatric disorder completed a computerized decision-making task, the Wheel of Fortune (WOF). By offering choices between clearly defined probabilities and real monetary outcomes, this task assesses risk preferences when participants are confronted with potential rewards and losses. The participants also completed a variety of behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Results Performance on the task varied based on the probability and anticipated outcomes. In the winning sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude reward (high-risk choice) less frequently than high probability-low magnitude reward (low-risk choice). In the losing sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude loss more often than high probability-low magnitude loss. On average, the selection of probabilistic rewards was optimal and similar to performance in adults. There were, however, individual differences in performance, and one-third of the adolescents made high-risk choice more frequently than low-risk choice while selecting a reward. After controlling for sociodemographic and psychological variables, high-risk choice on the winning task predicted “real-world” risk-taking behavior and substance-related problems. Conclusions These findings highlight individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Preliminary data on face validity of the WOF task suggest that it might be a valuable laboratory tool for studying behavioral and neurobiological processes associated with risk-taking behavior in adolescents. PMID:21257113

Characterization of extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Belyaev, Konstantin

2017-04-01

Extreme ocean-atmosphere turbulent fluxes play a critical role in the convective processes in the mid and subpolar latitudes and may also affect a variety of atmospheric processes, such as generation and re-intensification of extreme cyclones in the areas of the mid latitude storm tracks. From the ocean dynamics perspective, specifically for quantifying extreme vertical mixing, characterization of the extreme fluxes requires, besides estimation of the extreme events, also consideration of the relative extremeness of surface fluxes and their timing, e.g. the duration of periods of high surface fluxes. In order to comprehensively characterize extreme turbulent fluxes at sea surface we propose a formalism based upon probability density distributions of surface turbulent fluxes and flux-related variables. Individual absolute flux extremes were derived using Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution of turbulent fluxes. Then, we extend this distribution to the fractional distribution, characterizing the fraction of time-integrated turbulent heat flux provided by the fluxes exceeding a given percentile. Finally, we consider the time durations during which fluxes of a given intensity provide extreme accumulations of heat loss from the surface. For estimation of these characteristics of surface fluxes we use fluxes recomputed from the state variables available from modern era reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR) for the period from 1979 onwards. Applications of the formalism to the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) - based surface fluxes are also considered. We discuss application of the new metrics of mesoscale and synoptic variability of surface fluxes to the dynamics of mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic.

Space-filling, multifractal, localized thermal spikes in Si, Ge and ZnO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Shoaib; Abbas, Muhammad Sabtain; Yousuf, Muhammad; Javeed, Sumera; Zeeshan, Sumaira; Yaqub, Kashif

2018-04-01

The mechanism responsible for the emission of clusters from heavy ion irradiated solids is proposed to be thermal spikes. Collision cascade-based theories describe atomic sputtering but cannot explain the consistently observed experimental evidence for significant cluster emission. Statistical thermodynamic arguments for thermal spikes are employed here for qualitative and quantitative estimation of the thermal spike-induced cluster emission from Si, Ge and ZnO. The evolving cascades and spikes in elemental and molecular semiconducting solids are shown to have fractal characteristics. Power law potential is used to calculate the fractal dimension. With the loss of recoiling particles' energy the successive branching ratios get smaller. The fractal dimension is shown to be dependent upon the exponent of the power law interatomic potential D = 1/2m. Each irradiating ion has the probability of initiating a space-filling, multifractal thermal spike that may sublime a localized region near the surface by emitting clusters in relative ratios that depend upon the energies of formation of respective surface vacancies.

Ammonia volatilization from surface-applied poultry litter under conservation tillage management practices.

PubMed

Sharpe, R R; Schomberg, H H; Harper, L A; Endale, D M; Jenkins, M B; Franzluebbers, A J

2004-01-01

Land application of poultry litter can provide essential plant nutrients for crop production, but ammonia (NH(3)) volatilization from the litter can be detrimental to the environment. A multiseason study was conducted to quantify NH(3) volatilization rates from surface-applied poultry litter under no-till and paraplowed conservation tillage managements. Litter was applied to supply 90 to 140 kg N ha(-1). Evaluation of NH(3) volatilization was determined using gas concentrations and the flux-gradient gas transport technique using the momentum balance transport coefficient. Ammonia fluxes ranged from 3.3 to 24% of the total N applied during the winter and summer, respectively. Ammonia volatilization was rapid immediately after litter application and stopped within 7 to 8 d. Precipitation of 17 mm essentially halted volatilization, probably by transporting litter N into the soil matrix. Application of poultry to conservation-tilled cropland immediately before rainfall events would reduce N losses to the atmosphere but could also increase NO(3) leaching and runoff to streams and rivers.

Characteristics of Nitrogen Loss through Surface-Subsurface Flow on Red Soil Slopes of Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Haijin; Liu, Zhao; Zuo, Jichao; Wang, Lingyun; Nie, Xiaofei

2017-12-01

Soil nitrogen (N) loss related to surface flow and subsurface flow (including interflow and groundwater flow) from slope lands is a global issue. A lysimetric experiment with three types of land cover (grass cover, GC; litter cover, LC; and bare land, BL) were carried out on a red soil slope land in southeast China. Total Nitrogen (TN) loss through surface flow, interflow and groundwater flow was observed under 28 natural precipitation events from 2015 to 2016. TN concentrations from subsurface flow on BL and LC plots were, on average, 2.7-8.2 and 1.5-4.4 times greater than TN concentrations from surface flow, respectively; the average concentration of TN from subsurface flow on GC was about 36-56% of that recorded from surface flow. Surface flow, interflow and groundwater flow contributed 0-15, 2-9 and 76-96%, respectively, of loss load of TN. Compared with BL, GC and LC intercepted 83-86% of TN loss through surface runoff; GC intercepted 95% of TN loss through subsurface flow while TN loss through subsurface flow on LC is 2.3 times larger than that on BL. In conclusion, subsurface flow especially groundwater flow is the dominant hydrological rout for N loss that is usually underestimated. Grass cover has the high retention of N runoff loss while litter mulch will increase N leaching loss. These findings provide scientific support to control N runoff loss from the red soil slope lands by using suitable vegetation cover and mulching techniques.

Plant litter functional diversity effects on litter mass loss depend on the macro-detritivore community.

PubMed

Patoine, Guillaume; Thakur, Madhav P; Friese, Julia; Nock, Charles; Hönig, Lydia; Haase, Josephine; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-11-01

A better understanding of the mechanisms driving litter diversity effects on decomposition is needed to predict how biodiversity losses affect this crucial ecosystem process. In a microcosm study, we investigated the effects of litter functional diversity and two major groups of soil macro-detritivores on the mass loss of tree leaf litter mixtures. Furthermore, we tested the effects of litter trait community means and dissimilarity on litter mass loss for seven traits relevant to decomposition. We expected macro-detritivore effects on litter mass loss to be most pronounced in litter mixtures of high functional diversity. We used 24 leaf mixtures differing in functional diversity, which were composed of litter from four species from a pool of 16 common European tree species. Earthworms, isopods, or a combination of both were added to each litter combination for two months. Litter mass loss was significantly higher in the presence of earthworms than in that of isopods, whereas no synergistic effects of macro-detritivore mixtures were found. The effect of functional diversity of the litter material was highest in the presence of both macro-detritivore groups, supporting the notion that litter diversity effects are most pronounced in the presence of different detritivore species. Species-specific litter mass loss was explained by nutrient content, secondary compound concentration, and structural components. Moreover, dissimilarity in N concentrations increased litter mass loss, probably because detritivores having access to nutritionally diverse food sources. Furthermore, strong competition between the two macro-detritivores for soil surface litter resulted in a decrease of survival of both macro-detritivores. These results show that the effects of litter functional diversity on decomposition are contingent upon the macro-detritivore community and composition. We conclude that the temporal dynamics of litter trait diversity effects and their interaction with detritivore diversity are key to advancing our understanding of litter mass loss in nature.

Plant litter functional diversity effects on litter mass loss depend on the macro-detritivore community

PubMed Central

Patoine, Guillaume; Thakur, Madhav P.; Friese, Julia; Nock, Charles; Hönig, Lydia; Haase, Josephine; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-01-01

A better understanding of the mechanisms driving litter diversity effects on decomposition is needed to predict how biodiversity losses affect this crucial ecosystem process. In a microcosm study, we investigated the effects of litter functional diversity and two major groups of soil macro-detritivores on the mass loss of tree leaf litter mixtures. Furthermore, we tested the effects of litter trait community means and dissimilarity on litter mass loss for seven traits relevant to decomposition. We expected macro-detritivore effects on litter mass loss to be most pronounced in litter mixtures of high functional diversity. We used 24 leaf mixtures differing in functional diversity, which were composed of litter from four species from a pool of 16 common European tree species. Earthworms, isopods, or a combination of both were added to each litter combination for two months. Litter mass loss was significantly higher in the presence of earthworms than in that of isopods, whereas no synergistic effects of macro-detritivore mixtures were found. The effect of functional diversity of the litter material was highest in the presence of both macro-detritivore groups, supporting the notion that litter diversity effects are most pronounced in the presence of different detritivore species. Species-specific litter mass loss was explained by nutrient content, secondary compound concentration, and structural components. Moreover, dissimilarity in N concentrations increased litter mass loss, probably because detritivores having access to nutritionally diverse food sources. Furthermore, strong competition between the two macro-detritivores for soil surface litter resulted in a decrease of survival of both macro-detritivores. These results show that the effects of litter functional diversity on decomposition are contingent upon the macro-detritivore community and composition. We conclude that the temporal dynamics of litter trait diversity effects and their interaction with detritivore diversity are key to advancing our understanding of litter mass loss in nature. PMID:29180828

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Bigler, Mark A.; Rogers, James H.

2015-01-01

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Decision-making for risky gains and losses among college students with Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Yao, Yuan-Wei; Chen, Pin-Ru; Li, Song; Wang, Ling-Jiao; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Yip, Sarah W; Chen, Gang; Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Qin-Xue; Fang, Xiao-Yi

2015-01-01

Individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) tend to exhibit disadvantageous risky decision-making not only in their real life but also in laboratory tasks. Decision-making is a complex multifaceted function and different cognitive processes are involved in decision-making for gains and losses. However, the relationship between impaired decision-making and gain versus loss processing in the context of IGD is poorly understood. The main aim of the present study was to separately evaluate decision-making for risky gains and losses among college students with IGD using the Cups task. Additionally, we further examined the effects of outcome magnitude and probability level on decision-making related to risky gains and losses respectively. Sixty college students with IGD and 42 matched healthy controls (HCs) participated. Results indicated that IGD subjects exhibited generally greater risk taking tendencies than HCs. In comparison to HCs, IGD subjects made more disadvantageous risky choices in the loss domain (but not in the gain domain). Follow-up analyses indicated that the impairment was associated to insensitivity to changes in outcome magnitude and probability level for risky losses among IGD subjects. In addition, higher Internet addiction severity scores were associated with percentage of disadvantageous risky options in the loss domain. These findings emphasize the effect of insensitivity to losses on disadvantageous decisions under risk in the context of IGD, which has implications for future intervention studies.

Surface contamination on LDEF exposed materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemminger, Carol S.

1992-01-01

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) has been used to study the surface composition and chemistry of Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) exposed materials including silvered Teflon (Ag/FEP), Kapton, S13GLO paint, quartz crystal monitors (QCM's), carbon fiber/organic matrix composites, and carbon fiber/Al Alloy composites. In each set of samples, silicones were the major contributors to the molecular film accumulated on the LDEF exposed surfaces. All surfaces analyzed have been contaminated with Si, O, and C; most have low levels (less than 1 atom percent) of N, S, and F. Occasionally observed contaminants included Cl, Na, K, P, and various metals. Orange/brown discoloration observed near vent slots in some Ag/FEP blankets were higher in carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen relative to other contamination types. The source of contamination has not been identified, but amine/amide functionalities were detected. It is probable that this same source of contamination account for the low levels of sulfur and nitrogen observed on most LDEF exposed surfaces. XPS, which probes 50 to 100 A in depth, detected the major sample components underneath the contaminant film in every analysis. This probably indicates that the contaminant overlayer is patchy, with significant areas covered by less that 100 A of molecular film. Energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) of LDEF exposed surfaces during secondary electron microscopy (SEM) of the samples confirmed contamination of the surfaces with Si and O. In general, particulates were not observed to develop from the contaminant overlayer on the exposed LDEF material surfaces. However, many SiO2 submicron particles were seen on a masked edge of an Ag/FEP blanket. In some cases such as the carbon fiber/organic matrix composites, interpretation of the contamination data was hindered by the lack of good laboratory controls. Examination of laboratory controls for the carbon fiber/Al alloy composites showed that preflight contamination was the most significant factor for all the contaminants generally detected at less than 1 atom percent, or detected only occasionally (i.e., all but Si, O, and C). Flight control surfaces, including sample backsides not exposed to space radiation or atomic oxygen flux, have accumulated some contamination on flight (compared to laboratory controls), but experimentally, the LDEF exposed surface contamination levels are generally higher for the contaminants Si and O. For most materials analyzed, Si contamination levels were higher on the leading edge surfaces than on the trailing edge surfaces. This was true even for the composite samples where considerable atomic oxygen erosion of the leading edge surfaces was observed by SEM. It is probable that the return flux associated with atmospheric backscatter resulted in enhanced deposition of silicones and other contaminants on the leading edge flight surfaces relative to the trailing edge. Although the Si concentration data suggested greater on-flight deposition of contaminants on the leading edge surfaces, the XPS analyses did not conclusively show different relative total thicknesses of flight deposited contamination for leading and trailing edge surfaces. It is possible that atomic oxygen reactions on the leading edge resulted in greater volatilization of the carbon component of the deposited silicones, effectively 'thinning' the leading edge deposited overlayer. Unlike other materials, exposed polymers such as Kapton and FEP-type Teflon had very low contamination on the leading edge surfaces. SEM evidence showed that undercutting of the contaminant overlayer and damaged polymer layers occurred during atomic oxygen erosion, which would enhance loss of material from the exposed surface.

A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss events. Due to the nature of parametric programmes, it is still necessary to clearly define when a payout is due or not, and so a decision threshold probability above which a loss event is considered to occur must be set, effectively converting the issued probabilities into deterministic binary outcomes. Model skill and value are evaluated over the range of possible threshold probabilities, with the objective of defining the optimal one. The predictive ability of the model is assessed. In terms of value assessment, a decision model is proposed, allowing users to quantify monetarily their expected expenses when different combinations of model event triggering and actual event occurrence take place, directly tackling the problem of basis risk.

Analysis of Seasonal Variability in Gulf of Alaska Glacier Mass Balance using GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arendt, A. A.; Luthcke, S. B.; Oneel, S.; Gardner, A. S.; Hill, D. F.

2011-12-01

Mass variations of glaciers in Alaska/northwestern Canada must be quantified in order to assess impacts on ecosystems, human infrastructure, and global sea level. Here we combine Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations with a wide range of satellite and field data to investigate drivers of these recent changes, with a focus on seasonal variations. Our central focus will be the exceptionally high mass losses of 2009, which do not correlate with weather station temperature and precipitation data, but may be linked to ash fall from the March 31, 2009 eruption of Mt. Redoubt. The eruption resulted in a significant decrease in MODIS-derived surface albedo over many Alaska glacier regions, and likely contributed to some of the 2009 anomalous mass loss observed by GRACE. We also focus on the Juneau and Stikine Icefield regions that are far from the volcanic eruption but experienced the largest mass losses of any region in 2009. Although rapid drawdown of tidewater glaciers was occurring in southeast Alaska during 2009, we show these changes were probably not sufficiently widespread to explain all of the GRACE signal in those regions. We examine additional field and satellite datasets to quantify potential errors in the climate and GRACE fields that could result in the observed discrepancy.

Dust-enshrouded asymptotic giant branch stars in the solar neighborhood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jura, M.; Kleinmann, S. G.

1989-01-01

Using available infrared catalogs, an inventory is taken of the AGB star losing large amounts of mass within about 1 kpc of the sun. A surface density of these stars is estimated of about 25/sq kpc projected onto the plane of the Galaxy. Of these stars, about one-half are oxygen-rich while the other half are carbon-rich. The total mass-loss rate from AGB stars into the interstellar medium is probably between 3 and 6 x 10 to the -4th solar mass/sq kpc/yr. Within the uncertainties, this is in reasonable agreement with an estimated net loss rate of about 8 x 10 to the -4th solar mass/sq kpc/yr for main-sequence stars with initial masses between 1 and 5 solar masses as they evolve to white dwarfs. However, it is possible that there are important sources of mass loss which have not yet been identified. In the solar neighborhood, about one-half of all about 1.2 solar mass main-sequence stars spend greater than 30,000 yr in a carbon-star phase where they lose 1-2 x 10 to the -5th solar mass/yr and then become white dwarfs with about 0.7 solar mass.

Impact of Competing Risk of Mortality on Association of Weight Loss with Risk of Central Body Fractures in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ensrud, Kristine E.; Harrison, Stephanie L.; Cauley, Jane A.; Langsetmo, Lisa; Schousboe, John T.; Kado, Deborah M.; Gourlay, Margaret L.; Lyons, Jennifer G.; Fredman, Lisa; Napoli, Nicolas; Crandall, Carolyn J.; Lewis, Cora E.; Orwoll, Eric S.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Cawthon, Peggy M.

2017-01-01

To determine the association of weight loss with risk of clinical fractures at the hip, spine and pelvis (central body fractures [CBF]) in older men with and without accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 4,523 men (mean age 77.5 years). Weight change between baseline and follow-up (mean 4.5 years between examinations) was categorized as moderate loss (loss ≥10%), mild loss (loss 5% to <10%), stable (<5% change) or gain (gain ≥5%). Participants were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Absolute probability of CBF by weight change category was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of CBF by weight change category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average of 8 years, 337 men (7.5%) experienced CBF and 1,569 (34.7%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among men with moderate weight loss, CBF probability was 6.8% at 5 years and 16.9% at 10 years using Kaplan-Meier vs. 5.7% at 5 years and 10.2% at 10 years using a competing risk approach. Men with moderate weight loss compared with those with stable weight had a 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of CBF (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.06–2.38) using Cox models that was substantially attenuated in models accounting for competing mortality risk and no longer significant (subdistribution HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.77–1.75). Results were similar in analyses substituting hip fracture for CBF. Older men with weight loss who survive are at increased risk of CBF, including hip fracture. However, ignoring the competing mortality risk among men with weight loss substantially overestimates their longterm fracture probability and relative fracture risk. PMID:27739103

Impact of Competing Risk of Mortality on Association of Weight Loss With Risk of Central Body Fractures in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Ensrud, Kristine E; Harrison, Stephanie L; Cauley, Jane A; Langsetmo, Lisa; Schousboe, John T; Kado, Deborah M; Gourlay, Margaret L; Lyons, Jennifer G; Fredman, Lisa; Napoli, Nicolas; Crandall, Carolyn J; Lewis, Cora E; Orwoll, Eric S; Stefanick, Marcia L; Cawthon, Peggy M

2017-03-01

To determine the association of weight loss with risk of clinical fractures at the hip, spine, and pelvis (central body fractures [CBFs]) in older men with and without accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 4523 men (mean age 77.5 years). Weight change between baseline and follow-up (mean 4.5 years between examinations) was categorized as moderate loss (loss ≥10%), mild loss (loss 5% to <10%), stable (<5% change) or gain (gain ≥5%). Participants were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Absolute probability of CBF by weight change category was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of CBF by weight change category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average of 8 years, 337 men (7.5%) experienced CBF and 1569 (34.7%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among men with moderate weight loss, CBF probability was 6.8% at 5 years and 16.9% at 10 years using Kaplan-Meier versus 5.7% at 5 years and 10.2% at 10 years using a competing risk approach. Men with moderate weight loss compared with those with stable weight had a 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of CBF (HR 1.59; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.38) using Cox models that was substantially attenuated in models accounting for competing mortality risk and no longer significant (subdistribution HR 1.16; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.75). Results were similar in analyses substituting hip fracture for CBF. Older men with weight loss who survive are at increased risk of CBF, including hip fracture. However, ignoring the competing mortality risk among men with weight loss substantially overestimates their long-term fracture probability and relative fracture risk. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multiple Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multipath Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Lo, Yunnhon; Ward, Natalie C.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Hubble Space Telescope Observations of Active Asteroid 324P/La Sagra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewitt, David; Agarwal, Jessica; Weaver, Harold; Mutchler, Max; Li, Jing; Larson, Stephen

2016-09-01

Hubble Space Telescope observations of active asteroid 324P/La Sagra near perihelion show continued mass loss consistent with the sublimation of near-surface ice. Isophotes of the coma measured from a vantage point below the orbital plane are best matched by steady emission of particles having a nominal size of a ˜ 100 μm. The inferred rate of mass loss, dM d /dt ˜ 0.2 kg s-1, can be supplied by sublimation of water ice in thermal equilibrium with sunlight from an area as small as 930 m2, corresponding to about 0.2% of the nucleus surface. Observations taken from a vantage point only 0.°6 from the orbital plane of 324P set a limit to the velocity of ejection of dust in the direction perpendicular to the plane, V ⊥ < 1 m s-1. Short-term photometric variations of the near-nucleus region, if related to rotation of the underlying nucleus, rule-out periods ≤3.8 hr and suggest that rotation probably does not play a central role in driving the observed mass loss. We estimate that, in the previous orbit, 324P lost about 4 × 107 kg in dust particles, corresponding to 6 × 10-5 of the mass of a 550 m spherical nucleus of assumed density ρ = 1000 kg m-3. If continued, mass loss at this rate would limit the lifetime of 324P to ˜1.6 × 104 orbits (about 105 years). To survive for the 100-400 Myr timescales corresponding to dynamical and collisional stability requires a duty cycle of 2 × 10-4 ≤ f d ≤ 8 × 10-4. Unless its time in orbit is overestimated by many orders of magnitude, 324P is revealed as a briefly active member of a vast population of otherwise dormant ice-containing asteroids.

Measuring Forest Area Loss Over Time Using FIA Plots and Satellite Imagery

Treesearch

Michael L. Hoppus; Andrew J. Lister

2005-01-01

How accurately can FIA plots, scattered at 1 per 6,000 acres, identify often rare forest land loss, estimated at less than 1 percent per year in the Northeast? Here we explore this question mathematically, empirically, and by comparing FIA plot estimates of forest change with satellite image based maps of forest loss. The mathematical probability of exactly estimating...

A new scheduling algorithm to provide proportional QoS in optical burst switching networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Wei; Luo, Yunhan; Wang, Sheng; Xu, Du; Pan, Yonghong; Li, Lemin

2005-02-01

A new scheduling algorithm, which aims to provide proportional and controllable QoS in terms of burst loss probability for OBS (optical burst switching) networks, is proposed on the basis of a summary of current QoS schemes in OBS. With simulations, performance analyses and comparisons are studied in detail. The results show that, in the proposed scheme, burst loss probabilities are proportional to the given factors and the control of QoS performance can be achieved with better performance. This scheme will be beneficial to the OBS network management and the tariff policy making.

Investigation of reliability indicators of information analysis systems based on Markov’s absorbing chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.

2017-09-01

In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.

Evaluation of aquifer heterogeneity effects on river flow loss using a transition probability framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Engdahl, N.B.; Vogler, E.T.; Weissmann, G.S.

2010-01-01

River-aquifer exchange is considered within a transition probability framework along the Rio Grande in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to provide a stochastic estimate of aquifer heterogeneity and river loss. Six plausible hydrofacies configurations were determined using categorized drill core and wetland survey data processed through the TPROGS geostatistical package. A base case homogeneous model was also constructed for comparison. River loss was simulated for low, moderate, and high Rio Grande stages and several different riverside drain stage configurations. Heterogeneity effects were quantified by determining the mean and variance of the K field for each realization compared to the root-mean-square (RMS) error of the observed groundwater head data. Simulation results showed that the heterogeneous models produced smaller estimates of loss than the homogeneous approximation. Differences between heterogeneous and homogeneous model results indicate that the use of a homogeneous K in a regional-scale model may result in an overestimation of loss but comparable RMS error. We find that the simulated river loss is dependent on the aquifer structure and is most sensitive to the volumetric proportion of fines within the river channel. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Models for loosely linked gene duplicates suggest lengthy persistence of both copies.

PubMed

O'Hely, Martin; Wockner, Leesa

2007-06-21

Consider the appearance of a duplicate copy of a gene at a locus linked loosely, if at all, to the locus at which the gene is usually found. If all copies of the gene are subject to non-functionalizing mutations, then two fates are possible: loss of functional copies at the duplicate locus (loss of duplicate expression), or loss of functional copies at the original locus (map change). This paper proposes a simple model to address the probability of map change, the time taken for a map change and/or loss of duplicate expression, and considers where in the spectrum between loss of duplicate expression and map change such a duplicate complex is likely to be found. The findings are: the probability of map change is always half the reciprocal of the population size N, the time for a map change to occur is order NlogN generations, and that there is a marked tendency for duplicates to remain near equi-frequency with the gene at the original locus for a large portion of that time. This is in excellent agreement with simulations.

Seasonal patterns in the soil water balance of a Spartina marsh site at North Inlet, South Carolina, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, L.R.; Reeves, H.W.

2002-01-01

Time series of ground-water head at a mid-marsh site near North Inlet, South Carolina, USA can be classified into five types of forcing signatures based on the dominant water flux governing water-level dynamics during a given time interval. The fluxes that can be recognized are recharge by tides and rain, evapotranspiration (ET), seepage into the near surface soil from below, and seepage across the soil surface to balance either ET losses or seepage influxes from below. Minimal estimates for each flux can be made by multiplying the head change induced by it by the measured specific yield of the soil. These flux estimates are provide minimal values because ET fluxes resulting from this method are about half as large as those estimated from calculated potential evapotranspiration (PET), which place an upper limit on the actual ET. As evapotranspiration is not moisture-limited at this regularly submerged site, the actual ET is probably nearly equal to PET. Thus, all of the other fluxes are probably twice as large as those given by this method. Application of this method shows that recharge by tides and rain only occurs during spring and summer when ET exceeds upward seepage from below and is thereby able to draw down the water table below the marsh surface occasionally. During fall and winter, seepage of fresh water from below is largely balanced by seepage out of the soil into overlying tidal water or into sheet flow during tidal exposure. The resulting reduction in soil water salinity may thereby enhance the growth of Spartina in the following spring. ?? 2002, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

The theoretical link between voltage loss, reduction in field enhancement factor, and Fowler-Nordheim-plot saturation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, Richard G.

2017-03-01

With a large-area field electron emitter, when an individual post-like emitter is sufficiently resistive, and current through it is sufficiently large, then voltage loss occurs along it. This letter provides a simple analytical and conceptual demonstration that this voltage loss is directly and inextricably linked to a reduction in the field enhancement factor (FEF) at the post apex. A formula relating apex-FEF reduction to this voltage loss was obtained in the paper by Minoux et al. [Nano Lett. 5, 2135 (2005)] by fitting to numerical results from a Laplace solver. This letter derives the same formula analytically, by using a "floating sphere" model. The analytical proof brings out the underlying physics more clearly and shows that the effect is a general phenomenon, related to reduction in the magnitude of the surface charge in the most protruding parts of an emitter. Voltage-dependent FEF-reduction is one cause of "saturation" in Fowler-Nordheim (FN) plots. Another is a voltage-divider effect, due to measurement-circuit resistance. An integrated theory of both effects is presented. Both together, or either by itself, can cause saturation. Experimentally, if saturation occurs but voltage loss is small (<20 V, say), then saturation is more probably due to FEF-reduction than voltage division. In this case, existing treatments of electrostatic interaction ("shielding") between closely spaced emitters may need modification. Other putative causes of saturation exist, so the present theory is a partial story. Its extension seems possible and could lead to a more general physical understanding of the causes of FN-plot saturation.

The Atmosphere and Climate of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, M. A.; Grinspoon, D. H.

Venus lies just sunward of the inner edge of the Sun's habitable zone. Liquid water is not stable. Like Earth and Mars, Venus probably accreted at least an ocean's worth of water, although there are alternative scenarios. The loss of this water led to the massive, dry CO2 atmosphere, extensive H2SO4 clouds (at least some of the time), and an intense CO2 greenhouse effect. This chapter describes the current understanding of Venus' atmosphere, established from the data of dozens of spacecraft and atmospheric probe missions since 1962, and by telescopic observations since the nineteenth century. Theoretical work to model the temperature, chemistry, and circulation of Venus' atmosphere is largely based on analogous models developed in the Earth sciences. We discuss the data and modeling used to understand the temperature structure of the atmosphere, as well as its composition, cloud structure, and general circulation. We address what is known and theorized about the origin and early evolution of Venus' atmosphere. It is widely understood that Venus' dense CO2 atmosphere is the ultimate result of the loss of an ocean to space, but the timing of major transitions in Venus' climate is very poorly constrained by the available data. At present, the bright clouds allow only 20% of the sunlight to drive the energy balance and therefore determine conditions at Venus' surface. Like Earth and Mars, differential heating between the equator and poles drives the atmospheric circulation. Condensable species in the atmosphere create clouds and hazes that drive feedbacks that alter radiative forcing. Also in common with Earth and Mars, the loss of light, volatile elements to space produces long-term changes in composition and chemistry. As on Earth, geologic processes are most likely modifying the atmosphere and clouds by injecting gases from volcanos as well as directly through chemical reactions with the surface. The sensitivity of Venus' atmospheric energy balance is quantified in this chapter in terms of the initial forcing due to a perturbation, radiative response, and indirect responses, which are feedbacks — either positive or negative. When applied to one Venus climate model, we found that the albedo-radiative feedback is more important than greenhouse forcing for small changes in atmospheric H2O and SO2. An increase in these gases cools the planet by making the clouds brighter. On geologic timescales the reaction of some atmospheric species (SO2, CO, OCS, S, H2O, H2S, HCl, HF) with surface minerals could cause significant changes in atmospheric composition. Laboratory data and thermochemical modeling have been important for showing that atmospheric SO2 would be depleted in ~10 m.y. if carbonates are available at the surface. Without replenishment, the clouds would disappear. Alternatively, the oxidation of pyrite could add SO2 to the atmosphere while producing stable Fe oxides at the surface. The correlation of near-infrared high emissivity (dark) surface features with three young, large volcanos on Venus is strong evidence for recent volcanic activity at these sites, certainly over the timescale necessary to support the clouds. We address the nature of heterogeneous reactions with the surface and the implications for climate change on Venus. Chemical and mineralogical signatures of past climates must exist at the surface and below, so in situ experiments on the composition of surface layers are vital for reconstructing Venus' past climate. Many of the most Earth-like planets found around other stars will probably resemble Venus or a younger version of Venus. We finish the chapter with discussing what Venus can tell us about life in the universe, since it is an example of a planetary climate rendered uninhabitable. It also resembles our world's likely future. As with the climate history of Venus, however, the timing of predictable climate transitions on the Earth is poorly constrained by the data.

Low-frequency (< 10 kHz) surface magnetic energy losses measured with polarized secondary electrons (abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, J.; O'Handley, R. C.

1990-05-01

The polarization of low-energy secondary electrons emitted from iron- and cobalt-based amorphous melt-spun ribbons is measured as a function of the applied in-plane magnetic field yielding surface hysteresis loops. The polarization is measured in real time up to a frequency of 10 kHz and hysteresis loops are displayed on an oscilloscope. The bulk losses are measured on the same samples in the same configuration with a secondary winding. The area of the loop (energy loss/cycle) is measured as a function of applied magnetic field switching rate for both the surface polarization and bulk magnetization measurements. The surface loss per cycle increases linearly with the switching rate and the bulk loss per cycle increases much more slowly with switching rate. This is the first discrimination of bulk and surface losses we are aware of.

Calculation of low-Z impurity pellet induced fluxes of charge exchange neutral particles escaping from magnetically confined toroidal plasmas.

PubMed

Goncharov, P R; Ozaki, T; Sudo, S; Tamura, N; Tolstikhina, I Yu; Sergeev, V Yu

2008-10-01

Measurements of energy- and time-resolved neutral hydrogen and helium fluxes from an impurity pellet ablation cloud, referred to as pellet charge exchange or PCX experiments, can be used to study local fast ion energy distributions in fusion plasmas. The estimation of the local distribution function f(i)(E) of fast ions entering the cloud requires knowledge of both the fraction F(0)(E) of incident ions exiting the cloud as neutral atoms and the attenuation factor A(E,rho) describing the loss of fast atoms in the plasma. Determination of A(E,rho), in turn, requires the total stopping cross section sigma(loss) of neutral atoms in the plasma and the Jacobian reflecting the measurement geometry and the magnetic surface shape. The obtained functions F(0)(E) and A(E,rho) enter multiplicatively into the probability density for escaping neutral particle kinetic energy. A general calculation scheme has been developed and realized as a FORTRAN code, which is to be applied for the calculation of f(i)(E) from PCX experimental results obtained with low-Z impurity pellets.

Resonant coherent excitation of 390 MeV/u Ar ions planar channeled in Si crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komaki, K.; Azuma, T.; Ito, T.; Takabayashi, Y.; Yamazaki, Y.; Sano, M.; Torikoshi, M.; Kitagawa, A.; Takada, E.; Murakami, T.

1998-12-01

Resonant coherent excitation of the 1s electron to n=2 states in a hydrogen-like ion was studied through measurements of the survived fraction of 390 MeV/u Ar17+ planar channeled in a Si crystal. Adopting a totally depleted Si surface barrier detector as a target crystal, the charge state of the individual emerged ion was measured in coincidence with the energy deposition in the target. By changing the incident direction along the (2 overline2 0), (0 0 4), and (1 overline1 1) planes, a series of clear resonances were observed as the decrease in the survived charge fraction due to higher electron loss probability for the excited state. Each resonance profile reflects energy splitting of the n=2 manifold originated from l-s interaction and Stark effect due to the crystal field. From the correlation between the energy loss and survived charge fraction, transition energy as a function of the ion trajectory amplitude is deduced which is in good agreement with calculated results.

Evaluation of hydrologic processes affecting soil movement in the Hagerman fauna area, Hagerman, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, H.W.

1984-01-01

The Hagerman fauna area on the western slope of the Snake River canyon in south-central Idaho is one of the most important locations of upper Pliocene fossils in the world. The fossil beds are distributed vertically through a 500-foot stratigraphic section of the Glenns Ferry Formation. Accelerated soil movement caused by surface-water runoff from irrigated farmlands on the plateau above the canyon and discharge from springs and seeps along the slope of the canyon is eroding the fossil beds. Source of the springs and seeps is a perched aquifer, which is probably recharged by seepage losses from two irrigation canals that head near the canyon rim. Annual canal losses are about 1,900 acre-feet. Annual discharge from springs and seeps is about 420 acre-feet. Corrective measures that could be taken to stabilize the soil movement and preserve the fauna area include: (1) Lining or treating the canals, (2) eliminating the practice of flushing irrigation systems, (3) constructing road berms and cross dips, and (4) establishing an uncultivated strip of land between irrigated farmlands and the canyon rim. (USGS)

Preparation and structural characterization of zwitterionic surfactant intercalated into NiZn-layered hydroxide salts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiexiang; Wang, Jianlong; Zhang, Xiaoguang; Fang, Binbin; Hu, Pan; Zhao, Xuyang

2015-10-01

Three zwitterionic surfactants, dodecyl dimethyl carboxylbetaine (DCB), dodecyl dimethyl sulfobetaine (DSB) and N-dodecyl-β-aminoprpionate (DAP), intercalated into NiZn-layered hydroxide salts (NZL-DCB, NZL-DSB and NZL-DAP) were synthesized by the coprecipitation method. The effect of surfactant content, pH, temperature and time of hydrothermal treatment on preparation was investigated and discussed. The NZL-DCB, NZL-DSB and NZL-DAP were characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and thermogravimetry analysis and differential thermal analysis (TGA/DTA). The results showed that basal spacings of NZL-DCB, NZL-DSB and NZL-DAP were around 3.45, 3.68 and 3.94 nm, respectively. DCB, DSB and DAP probably form an overlapped bilayer in the gallery. TGA/DTA data indicated that NZL-DCB, NZL-DSB and NZL-DAP displayed three loss weight stages: loss of adsorbed and structural water, dehydroxylation of matrix and decomposition of nitrate ions, decomposition and combustion of surfactants. Furthermore, chemical analysis data, BET surface area and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) were also measured and analyzed.

Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method

PubMed Central

Fu, Xiao; Gu, Chong-Shi; Su, Huai-Zhi; Qin, Xiang-Nan

2018-01-01

Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level. PMID:29710824

Decision making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): anterior cingulate cortex signals loss aversion but not the infrequency of risky choices.

PubMed

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W; Bogg, Tim

2012-09-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 8, 75-84, 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether the ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward seeking. However, in the cingulate and in mainly bilateral IFG regions, blood-oxygenation-level-dependent activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings that are consistent with a reduced loss aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision making, as well as the importance of distinguishing between decision and feedback signals.

Quantum illumination for enhanced detection of Rayleigh-fading targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) is an entanglement-enhanced sensing system whose performance advantage over a comparable classical system survives its usage in an entanglement-breaking scenario plagued by loss and noise. In particular, QI's error-probability exponent for discriminating between equally likely hypotheses of target absence or presence is 6 dB higher than that of the optimum classical system using the same transmitted power. This performance advantage, however, presumes that the target return, when present, has known amplitude and phase, a situation that seldom occurs in light detection and ranging (lidar) applications. At lidar wavelengths, most target surfaces are sufficiently rough that their returns are speckled, i.e., they have Rayleigh-distributed amplitudes and uniformly distributed phases. QI's optical parametric amplifier receiver—which affords a 3 dB better-than-classical error-probability exponent for a return with known amplitude and phase—fails to offer any performance gain for Rayleigh-fading targets. We show that the sum-frequency generation receiver [Zhuang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 040801 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.040801]—whose error-probability exponent for a nonfading target achieves QI's full 6 dB advantage over optimum classical operation—outperforms the classical system for Rayleigh-fading targets. In this case, QI's advantage is subexponential: its error probability is lower than the classical system's by a factor of 1 /ln(M κ ¯NS/NB) , when M κ ¯NS/NB≫1 , with M ≫1 being the QI transmitter's time-bandwidth product, NS≪1 its brightness, κ ¯ the target return's average intensity, and NB the background light's brightness.

Comparison of human and southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) health risks for infection with protozoa in nearshore waters.

PubMed

Adell, A D; McBride, G; Wuertz, S; Conrad, P A; Smith, W A

2016-11-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia spp. are waterborne, fecally-transmitted pathogens that cause economic loss due to gastroenteritis and beach closures. We applied quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the health risks for humans and sea otters due to waterborne exposure of Cryptosporidium and Giardia spp. when swimming in three types of surface waters: river, stormwater and wastewater effluent during the wet and dry seasons in the central coast of California. This is the first application of QMRA to estimate both the probability of infection in Southern sea otters and the probability of illness in humans, using microbial source tracking (MST) as a variable. Children swimming close to stormwater discharges had an estimated Cryptosporidium-associated illness probability that exceeded the accepted U.S. EPA criteria (32 illnesses/1000 swimmers or 3.2%). Based on the assumption that sea otters are as susceptible as humans to Cryptosporidium infection, the infection probabilities were close to 2% and 16% when sea otters were swimming at the end of points of rivers and stormwater discharges, respectively. In the case of Giardia, infection probabilities of 11% and 23% were estimated for sea otters swimming at the end of point of wastewater discharges, assuming that sea otters are as susceptible as gerbils and humans, respectively. The results of this QMRA suggest that 1) humans and sea otters are at risk when swimming at outflow sites for rivers, stormwater and treated wastewater effluent; 2) reduced loads of viable protozoan cysts and oocysts in recreational water can lessen the probability of infection of humans and sea otters; and 3) the risk of infection of humans and sea otters can be reduced with the treatment of wastewater to decrease oocyst and cyst viability before effluent is released into the sea. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comonotonic bounds on the survival probabilities in the Lee-Carter model for mortality projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denuit, Michel; Dhaene, Jan

2007-06-01

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables.

Antibacterial and antibiofilm surfaces through polydopamine-assisted immobilization of lysostaphin as an antibacterial enzyme.

PubMed

Yeroslavsky, Gil; Girshevitz, Olga; Foster-Frey, Juli; Donovan, David M; Rahimipour, Shai

2015-01-27

Antibiotic resistance and the colonization of bacteria on surfaces, often as biofilms, prolong hospitalization periods, increase mortality, and are thus major concerns for health care providers. There is an urgent need for antimicrobial and antibiofilm surface treatments that are permanent, can eradicate both biofilms and planktonic pathogens over long periods of time, and do not select for resistant strains. In this study, we have demonstrated a simple, robust, and biocompatible method that utilizes the adhesive property of polydopamine (PDA) to covalently attach the antimicrobial enzyme lysostaphin (Lst) to a variety of surfaces to generate antibacterial and antibiofilm interfaces. The immobilization of the recombinant Lst onto PDA-coated surfaces was carried out under physiological conditions, most probably through the C-terminal His6-tag fragment of the enzyme, minimizing the losses of bioagent activity. The modified surfaces were extensively characterized by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and peak force quantitative nanomechanical mapping (PeakForce QNM) AFM-based method, and the presence of Lst on the surfaces was further confirmed immunochemically using anti-Lst antibody. We also found that, in contrast to the physically adsorbed Lst, the covalently attached Lst does not leach from the surfaces and maintains its endopeptidase activity to degrade the staphylococcal cell wall, avoiding most intracellular bacterial resistance mechanisms. Moreover, the Lst-coated surfaces kill hospital strains of Staphylococcus aureus in less than 15 min and prevent biofilm formation. This immobilization method should be applicable also to other proteins and enzymes that are recombinantly expressed to include the His6-tag fragment.

Buried CO2 Ice traces in South Polar Layered Deposits of Mars detected by radar sounder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaldo, L.; Mège, D.; Orosei, R.; Séjourné, A.

2014-12-01

SHARAD (SHAllow RADar) is the subsurface sounding radar provided by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) as a facility instrument to NASA's 2005 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The Reduced Data Record of SHARAD data covering the area of the South Polar Layered Deposits (SPLD), has been used. The elaboration and interpretation of the data, aimed to estimate electromagnetic properties of surface layers, has been performed in terms of permittivity. The theory of electromagnetic scattering from fractal surfaces, and the estimation of geometric parameters from topographic data by Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) which was one of five instruments on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft, has been used. A deep analysis of inversion has been made on all Mars and extended to the South Polar Caps in order to extract the area with a permittivity constant of CO2 ice. Several corrections have been applied to the data, moreover the calibration of the signal requires the determination of a constant that takes into account the power gain due to the radar system and the surface in order to compensate the power losses due to the orbitographic phenomena. The determination of regions with high probability of buried CO2 ice in the first layer of the Martian surface, is obtained extracting the real part of the permittivity constant of the CO2 ice (~2), estimated by other means. The permittivity of CO2ice is extracted from the Global Permittivity Map of Mars using the global standard deviation of itself as following: ɛCO2ice=ɛCO2ice+ Σ (1)where Σ=±std(ɛMapMars)/2Figure 1(a) shows the south polar areas where the values of the permittivity point to the possibility of a CO2 ice layer. Figure 1(b) is the corresponding geologic map. The comparison between the two maps indicates that the area with probable buried CO2 overlaps Hesperian and Amazonian polar units (Hp, Hesperian plains-forming deposits marked by narrow sinuous, anabranching ridges and irregular depressions, and Apu, Amazonian layered plateaus). From this analysis, the south polar cap could be covered by a thin frozen carbon dioxide coating. The perennial south polar cap is probably made of frozen carbon dioxide ca. 8 meters thick.

Ice Flow in Debris Aprons and Central Peaks, and the Application of Crater Counts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, W. K.; Quantin, C.; Werner, S. C.; Popova, O.

2009-03-01

We apply studies of decameter-scale craters to studies of probable ice-flow-related features on Mars, to interpret both chronometry and geological processes among the features. We find losses of decameter-scale craters relative to nearby plains, probably due to sublimation.

Correlates of rediscovery and the detectability of extinction in mammals

PubMed Central

Fisher, Diana O.; Blomberg, Simon P.

2011-01-01

Extinction is difficult to detect, even in well-known taxa such as mammals. Species with long gaps in their sighting records, which might be considered possibly extinct, are often rediscovered. We used data on rediscovery rates of missing mammals to test whether extinction from different causes is equally detectable and to find which traits affect the probability of rediscovery. We find that species affected by habitat loss were much more likely to be misclassified as extinct or to remain missing than those affected by introduced predators and diseases, or overkill, unless they had very restricted distributions. We conclude that extinctions owing to habitat loss are most difficult to detect; hence, impacts of habitat loss on extinction have probably been overestimated, especially relative to introduced species. It is most likely that the highest rates of rediscovery will come from searching for species that have gone missing during the 20th century and have relatively large ranges threatened by habitat loss, rather than from additional effort focused on charismatic missing species. PMID:20880890

Analytical modeling of electron energy loss spectroscopy of graphene: Ab initio study versus extended hydrodynamic model.

PubMed

Djordjević, Tijana; Radović, Ivan; Despoja, Vito; Lyon, Keenan; Borka, Duško; Mišković, Zoran L

2018-01-01

We present an analytical modeling of the electron energy loss (EEL) spectroscopy data for free-standing graphene obtained by scanning transmission electron microscope. The probability density for energy loss of fast electrons traversing graphene under normal incidence is evaluated using an optical approximation based on the conductivity of graphene given in the local, i.e., frequency-dependent form derived by both a two-dimensional, two-fluid extended hydrodynamic (eHD) model and an ab initio method. We compare the results for the real and imaginary parts of the optical conductivity in graphene obtained by these two methods. The calculated probability density is directly compared with the EEL spectra from three independent experiments and we find very good agreement, especially in the case of the eHD model. Furthermore, we point out that the subtraction of the zero-loss peak from the experimental EEL spectra has a strong influence on the analytical model for the EEL spectroscopy data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Does Ambiguity Affect Insurance Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

actuarially fair value is C=$100. As with the actuaries, the underwriters charge higher premiums when either p and/or L is ambiguous. Even for the case where...probabilities they reacted by increasing the premium (i.e., reducing C) particularly for the perfectly correlated case. Thus when p=.01, the actuarially fair ... value is C=100. When losses are perfectly correlated and the actuary faces an ambiguous probability, the median value is C=9. The probability would

Six-dimensional quantum dynamics study for the dissociative adsorption of DCl on Au(111) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tianhui; Fu, Bina; Zhang, Dong H.

2014-04-01

We carried out six-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations for the dissociative adsorption of deuterium chloride (DCl) on Au(111) surface using the initial state-selected time-dependent wave packet approach. The four-dimensional dissociation probabilities are also obtained with the center of mass of DCl fixed at various sites. These calculations were all performed based on an accurate potential energy surface recently constructed by neural network fitting to density function theory energy points. The origin of the extremely small dissociation probability for DCl/HCl (v = 0, j = 0) fixed at the top site compared to other fixed sites is elucidated in this study. The influence of vibrational excitation and rotational orientation of DCl on the reactivity was investigated by calculating six-dimensional dissociation probabilities. The vibrational excitation of DCl enhances the reactivity substantially and the helicopter orientation yields higher dissociation probability than the cartwheel orientation. The site-averaged dissociation probability over 25 fixed sites obtained from four-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations can accurately reproduce the six-dimensional dissociation probability.

Six-dimensional quantum dynamics study for the dissociative adsorption of DCl on Au(111) surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Tianhui; Fu, Bina, E-mail: bina@dicp.ac.cn, E-mail: zhangdh@dicp.ac.cn; Zhang, Dong H., E-mail: bina@dicp.ac.cn, E-mail: zhangdh@dicp.ac.cn

We carried out six-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations for the dissociative adsorption of deuterium chloride (DCl) on Au(111) surface using the initial state-selected time-dependent wave packet approach. The four-dimensional dissociation probabilities are also obtained with the center of mass of DCl fixed at various sites. These calculations were all performed based on an accurate potential energy surface recently constructed by neural network fitting to density function theory energy points. The origin of the extremely small dissociation probability for DCl/HCl (v = 0, j = 0) fixed at the top site compared to other fixed sites is elucidated in this study. The influence of vibrational excitationmore » and rotational orientation of DCl on the reactivity was investigated by calculating six-dimensional dissociation probabilities. The vibrational excitation of DCl enhances the reactivity substantially and the helicopter orientation yields higher dissociation probability than the cartwheel orientation. The site-averaged dissociation probability over 25 fixed sites obtained from four-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations can accurately reproduce the six-dimensional dissociation probability.« less

Consideration of probability of bacterial growth for Jovian planets and their satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, D. M.; Berkman, R. M.; Divine, N.

1974-01-01

Environmental parameters affecting growth of bacteria are compared with current atmospheric models for Jupiter and Saturn, and with the available physical data for their satellites. Different zones of relative probability of growth are identified for Jupiter and Saturn. Of the more than two dozen satellites, only the largest (Io, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, and Titan) are found to be interesting biologically. Titan's atmosphere may produce a substantial greenhouse effect providing increased surface temperatures. Models predicting a dense atmosphere are compatible with microbial growth for a range of pressures at Titan's surface. For Titan's surface the probability of growth would be enhanced if: (1) the surface is entirely or partially liquid; (2) volcanism is present; or (3) access to internal heat sources is significant.

Landscape resistance to frog movements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazerolle, M.J.; Desrochers, A.

2005-01-01

An animal's capacity to recolonize a patch depends on at least two components: its ability to detect the patch and its ability to reach it. However, the disruption of such processes by anthropic disturbances could explain low animal abundance patterns observed by many investigators in certain landscapes. Through field experiments, we compared the orientation and homing success of northern green frogs (Rana clamitans melanota Rafinesque, 1820) and northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens Schreber, 1782) translocated across disturbed or undisturbed surfaces. We also monitored the path selected by individuals when presented with a choice between a short distance over a disturbed surface and a longer, undisturbed route. Finally, we measured the water loss and behaviour of frogs on substrates resulting from anthropogenic disturbances and a control. When presented with a choice, 72% of the frogs avoided disturbed surfaces. Although able to orient towards the pond of capture when translocated on disturbed surfaces, frogs had a lower probability of homing successfully to the pond than when translocated at a similar distance on an undisturbed surface. Frogs lost the most water on substrates associated with disturbance and in the absence of cover. Our data illustrate that anthropically disturbed areas devoid of cover, such as mined peatlands and agricultural fields, disrupt the ability of frogs to reach habitat patches and are likely explanations to their reduced abundance patterns in such environments. ?? 2005 NRC Canada.

Assessing patterns of human-wildlife conflicts and compensation around a Central Indian protected area.

PubMed

Karanth, Krithi K; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M; DeFries, Ruth; Ballal, Natasha

2012-01-01

Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km(2) area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur.

Assessing Patterns of Human-Wildlife Conflicts and Compensation around a Central Indian Protected Area

PubMed Central

Karanth, Krithi K.; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; DeFries, Ruth; Ballal, Natasha

2012-01-01

Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km2 area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur. PMID:23227173

Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannaki, K.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Papagiannakis, G.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study is to analyze frost damaging events in agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum temperature at the lower atmosphere (at the pressure level of 850 hPa) and crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim to estimate the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with near surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecast at the level of 850 hPa is less influenced by varying weather conditions, as well as by local topographical features, thus it constitutes a more consistent indicator of the forthcoming weather conditions. The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece, during the period 1999-2011, shows that frost is the major meteorological phenomenon with adverse effects on crop productivity in the largest part of the country. Two regions of different geographical latitude are further examined, to account for the differences in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment. Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum temperature (at 850 hPa level), grouped in three categories according to its magnitude, and seasonality are significant variables when trying to explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood and magnitude of frost damaging events.

Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannaki, K.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Papagiannakis, G.

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is the analysis of damaging frost events in agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum temperature in the lower atmosphere (at an isobaric level of 850 hPa) and crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim of estimating the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with near-surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecasts at the level of 850 hPa are less influenced by varying weather conditions or by local topographical features; thus, they constitute a more consistent indicator of the forthcoming weather conditions. The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece shows that, during the period 1999-2011, frost caused more damage to crop production than any other meteorological phenomenon. Two regions of different geographical latitudes are examined further, to account for the differences in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment. Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum temperature (at an 850 hPa level), grouped into three categories according to its magnitude, and seasonality, are significant variables when trying to explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood and magnitude of damaging frost events.

Capabilities of VOS-based fluxes for estimating ocean heat budget and its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, S.; Belyaev, K.

2016-12-01

We consider here the perspective of using VOS observations by merchant ships available form the ICOADS data for estimating ocean surface heat budget at different time scale. To this purpose we compute surface turbulent heat fluxes as well as short- and long-wave radiative fluxes from the ICOADS reports for the last several decades in the North Atlantic mid latitudes. Turbulent fluxes were derived using COARE-3 algorithm and for computation of radiative fluxes new algorithms accounting for cloud types were used. Sampling uncertainties in the VOS-based fluxes were estimated by sub-sampling of the recomputed reanalysis (ERA-Interim) fluxes according to the VOS sampling scheme. For the turbulent heat fluxes we suggest an approach to minimize sampling uncertainties. The approach is based on the integration of the turbulent heat fluxes in the coordinates of steering parameters (vertical surface temperature and humidity gradients on one hand and wind speed on the other) for which theoretical probability distributions are known. For short-wave radiative fluxes sampling uncertainties were minimized by "rotating local observation time around the clock" and using probability density functions for the cloud cover occurrence distributions. Analysis was performed for the North Atlantic latitudinal band from 25 N to 60 N, for which also estimates of the meridional heat transport are available from the ocean cross-sections. Over the last 35 years turbulent fluxes within the region analysed increase by about 6 W/m2 with the major growth during the 1990s and early 2000s. Decreasing incoming short wave radiation during the same time (about 1 W/m2) implies upward change of the ocean surface heat loss by about 7-8 W/m2. We discuss different sources of uncertainties of computations as well as potential of the application of the analysis concept to longer time series going back to 1920s.

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions adopted in the loss calculations. This is a sensitivity study aimed at future regional earthquake source modelers, so that they may be informed of the effects on loss introduced by modeling assumptions and epistemic uncertainty in the WG02 earthquake source model.

Entrainment of Juvenile and Adult American Shad at a Pumped Storage Facility

DOE PAGES

Mathur, Dilip; Heisey, Paul G.; Royer, Doug D.; ...

2017-12-13

The American Shad Alosa sapidissima has been targeted for restoration to the upper Susquehanna River, and entrainment losses at hydroelectric facilities on the river, including the Muddy Run Pumped Storage Facility, are of concern for the potential growth of the American Shad population. Based on the integration of pumping volume, time of entrainment, and literature–reported diel emigration of juvenile American Shad, the entrainment rate (N = 145; 53 exposed to pumping) was estimated at 3.5%. The entrainment rate for adults (N = 507) was estimated at 0.3–3.9%. Using multistate mark–recapture models, the estimated entrainment probabilities (Ψ) of radio–tagged juveniles weremore » higher during periods of extended pumping (>1 h; Ψ = 0.093; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.054–0.156) than at periods of no pumping or short–duration pumping (<1 h; Ψ < 0.0001; 95% CI = 0.0–0.001); the high extended pumping occurred between 2300 and 0600 hours. Entrainment probabilities for adults were low (Ψ < 0.02); the highest probability occurred for fish detected downstream of the intake during the peak portion of the run (Ψ = 0.015; 95% CI = 0.004–0.047). Entrainment probability for most adult fish did not differ from zero. The low values of Ψ for both life stages were attributed to (1) the deep location of the intake (intake ceiling >11.7 m below the water surface), (2) the surface orientation of American Shad (upper 3.1 m), (3) the low overlap between high–volume pumping and peak emigration/migration times, (4) the pumping volume relative to prevailing river flows, and (5) the prolonged, robust swimming speed of American Shad, particularly that of adults (>2.2 m/s), which exceeded the intake velocity (0.2–0.9 m/s). Entrainment of juveniles increased with co–occurrence of low incoming river flows, high pumping volume, and peak emigration times. Furthermore, quantification of migratory species’ entrainment at pumped storage facilities requires integration of diel migration/emigration times with the frequency, timing, and duration of pumping volume.« less

Entrainment of Juvenile and Adult American Shad at a Pumped Storage Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mathur, Dilip; Heisey, Paul G.; Royer, Doug D.

The American Shad Alosa sapidissima has been targeted for restoration to the upper Susquehanna River, and entrainment losses at hydroelectric facilities on the river, including the Muddy Run Pumped Storage Facility, are of concern for the potential growth of the American Shad population. Based on the integration of pumping volume, time of entrainment, and literature–reported diel emigration of juvenile American Shad, the entrainment rate (N = 145; 53 exposed to pumping) was estimated at 3.5%. The entrainment rate for adults (N = 507) was estimated at 0.3–3.9%. Using multistate mark–recapture models, the estimated entrainment probabilities (Ψ) of radio–tagged juveniles weremore » higher during periods of extended pumping (>1 h; Ψ = 0.093; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.054–0.156) than at periods of no pumping or short–duration pumping (<1 h; Ψ < 0.0001; 95% CI = 0.0–0.001); the high extended pumping occurred between 2300 and 0600 hours. Entrainment probabilities for adults were low (Ψ < 0.02); the highest probability occurred for fish detected downstream of the intake during the peak portion of the run (Ψ = 0.015; 95% CI = 0.004–0.047). Entrainment probability for most adult fish did not differ from zero. The low values of Ψ for both life stages were attributed to (1) the deep location of the intake (intake ceiling >11.7 m below the water surface), (2) the surface orientation of American Shad (upper 3.1 m), (3) the low overlap between high–volume pumping and peak emigration/migration times, (4) the pumping volume relative to prevailing river flows, and (5) the prolonged, robust swimming speed of American Shad, particularly that of adults (>2.2 m/s), which exceeded the intake velocity (0.2–0.9 m/s). Entrainment of juveniles increased with co–occurrence of low incoming river flows, high pumping volume, and peak emigration times. Furthermore, quantification of migratory species’ entrainment at pumped storage facilities requires integration of diel migration/emigration times with the frequency, timing, and duration of pumping volume.« less

Predictive Finite Rate Model for Oxygen-Carbon Interactions at High Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poovathingal, Savio

An oxidation model for carbon surfaces is developed to predict ablation rates for carbon heat shields used in hypersonic vehicles. Unlike existing empirical models, the approach used here was to probe gas-surface interactions individually and then based on an understanding of the relevant fundamental processes, build a predictive model that would be accurate over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, and even microstructures. Initially, molecular dynamics was used to understand the oxidation processes on the surface. The molecular dynamics simulations were compared to molecular beam experiments and good qualitative agreement was observed. The simulations reproduced cylindrical pitting observed in the experiments where oxidation was rapid and primarily occurred around a defect. However, the studies were limited to small systems at low temperatures and could simulate time scales only of the order of nanoseconds. Molecular beam experiments at high surface temperature indicated that a majority of surface reaction products were produced through thermal mechanisms. Since the reactions were thermal, they occurred over long time scales which were computationally prohibitive for molecular dynamics to simulate. The experiments provided detailed dynamical data on the scattering of O, O2, CO, and CO2 and it was found that the data from molecular beam experiments could be used directly to build a model. The data was initially used to deduce surface reaction probabilities at 800 K. The reaction probabilities were then incorporated into the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Simulations were performed where the microstructure was resolved and dissociated oxygen convected and diffused towards it. For a gas-surface temperature of 800 K, it was found that despite CO being the dominant surface reaction product, a gas-phase reaction forms significant CO2 within the microstructure region. It was also found that surface area did not play any role in concentration of reaction products because the reaction probabilities were in the diffusion dominant regime. The molecular beam data at different surface temperatures was then used to build a finite rate model. Each reaction mechanism and all rate parameters of the new model were determined individually based on the molecular beam data. Despite the experiments being performed at near vacuum conditions, the finite rate model developed using the data could be used at pressures and temperatures relevant to hypersonic conditions. The new model was implemented in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver and flow over a hypersonic vehicle was simulated. The new model predicted similar overall mass loss rates compared to existing models, however, the individual species production rates were completely different. The most notable difference was that the new model (based on molecular beam data) predicts CO as the oxidation reaction product with virtually no CO2 production, whereas existing models predict the exact opposite trend. CO being the dominant oxidation product is consistent with recent high enthalpy wind tunnel experiments. The discovery that measurements taken in molecular beam facilities are able to determine individual reaction mechanisms, including dependence on surface coverage, opens up an entirely new way of constructing ablation models.

The formation of diethyl ether via the reaction of iodoethane with atomic oxygen on the Ag(110) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. Scott; Barteau, Mark A.; Vohs, John M.

1999-01-01

The reactions of iodoethane (ICH 2CH 3) on clean and oxygen-covered Ag(110) surfaces were investigated using temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) and high-resolution electron energy-loss spectroscopy (HREELS). Iodoethane adsorbs dissociatively at 150 K to produce surface ethyl groups on both clean and oxygen-covered Ag(110) surfaces. The ethyl species couple to form butane on both surfaces, with the desorption peak maximum located between 218 and 238 K, depending on the ethyl coverage. In addition to butane, a number of oxidation products including diethyl ether, ethanol, acetaldehyde, surface acetate, ethylene, carbon dioxide and water were formed on the oxygen-dosed Ag(110) surface. Diethyl ether was the major oxygenate produced at all ethyl:oxygen ratios, and the peak temperature for ether evolution varied from 220 to 266 K depending on the relative coverages of these reactants. The total combustion products, CO 2 and H 2O, were primarily formed at low ethyl coverages in the presence of excess oxygen. The formation of ethylene near 240 K probably involves an oxygen-assisted dehydrogenation pathway since ethylene is not formed from ethyl groups on the clean surface. Acetaldehyde and ethanol evolve coincidentally with a peak centered at 270-280 K, and are attributed to the reactions of surface ethoxide species. The surface acetate which decomposes near 620 K is formed from subsequent reactions of acetaldehyde with oxygen atoms. The addition of ethyl to oxygen to form surface ethoxides was verified by HREELS results. The yields of all products exhibited a strong dependence on the relative coverages of ethyl and oxygen.

Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation: Insurance Determinations Requirements As of July 22, 1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-07-22

The Commercial Space Launch Act requires that all commercial licensees : demonstrate financial responsibility to compensate for the maximum probable : loss (MPL) from claims by a third party for death, bodily injury, or property : damage or loss resu...

Filtration effects on ball bearing life and condition in a contaminated lubricant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loewenthal, S. H.; Moyer, D. W.

1978-01-01

Ball bearings were fatigue tested with a noncontaminated lubricant and with a contaminated lubricant under four levels of filtration. The test filters had absolute particle removal ratings of 3, 30, 49, and 105 microns. Aircraft turbine engine contaminants were injected into the filter's supply line at a constant rate of 125 milligrams per bearing hour. Bearing life and running track condition generally improved with finer filtration. The experimental lives of 3 and 30 micron filter bearings were statistically equivalent, approaching those obtained with the noncontaminated lubricant bearings. Compared to these bearings, the lives of the 49 micron bearings were statistically lower. The 105 micron bearings experienced gross wear. The degree of surface distress, weight loss, and probable failure mode were dependent on filtration level, with finer filtration being clearly beneficial.

A study of electric transmission lines for use on the lunar surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaustad, Krista L.; Gordon, Lloyd B.; Weber, Jennifer R.

1994-01-01

The sources for electrical power on a lunar base are said to include solar/chemical, nuclear (static conversion), and nuclear (dynamic conversion). The transmission of power via transmission lines is more practical than power beaming or superconducting because of its low cost and reliable, proven technology. Transmission lines must have minimum mass, maximum efficiency, and the ability to operate reliably in the lunar environment. The transmission line design includes conductor material, insulator material, conductor geometry, conductor configuration, line location, waveform, phase selection, and frequency. This presentation oulines the design. Liquid and gaseous dielectrics are undesirable for long term use in the lunar vacuum due to a high probability of loss. Thus, insulation for high voltage transmission line will most likely be solid dielectric or vacuum insulation.

Diffuse reflection from a stochastically bounded, semi-infinite medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lumme, K.; Peltoniemi, J. I.; Irvine, W. M.

1990-01-01

In order to determine the diffuse reflection from a medium bounded by a rough surface, the problem of radiative transfer in a boundary layer characterized by a statistical distribution of heights is considered. For the case that the surface is defined by a multivariate normal probability density, the propagation probability for rays traversing the boundary layer is derived and, from that probability, a corresponding radiative transfer equation. A solution of the Eddington (two stream) type is found explicitly, and examples are given. The results should be applicable to reflection from the regoliths of solar system bodies, as well as from a rough ocean surface.

Time-Varying Effects of Signs and Symptoms on Pregnancy Loss <20 Weeks: Findings from a Preconception Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Sapra, Katherine J; Buck Louis, Germaine M; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Joseph, K S; Bates, Lisa M; Galea, Sando; Ananth, Cande V

2018-01-01

Although pregnancy loss affects one-third of pregnancies, the associated signs/symptoms have not been fully described. Given the dynamic nature of maternal physiologic adaptation to early pregnancy, we posited the relationships between signs/symptoms and subsequent loss would vary weekly. In a preconception cohort with daily follow-up, pregnancies were ascertained by self-administered sensitive home pregnancy tests on day of expected menses. We evaluated the effects of weekly time-varying signs/symptoms (including vaginal bleeding, lower abdominal cramping, and nausea and/or vomiting) on pregnancy loss <20 weeks in Cox proportional hazards models and calculated the week-specific probability of loss by the presence/absence of each sign/symptom. Of 341 pregnancies ascertained by home pregnancy test, 95 (28%) ended in loss. Relationships between signs/symptoms and loss varied across time since first positive pregnancy test. In the first week following pregnancy confirmation, when many losses occurred, bleeding [hazard ratio (HR) 8.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.7, 16.0] and cramping (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2, 2.7) were associated with loss even when accompanied by nausea and/or vomiting (HR 5.2, 95% CI 2.6, 10.5). After the second week, new relationships emerged with nausea and/or vomiting inversely associated (HR range 0.6-0.3, all 95% CI upper bounds <1.00) and bleeding no longer associated with loss. Probabilities of loss of ranged from 78% (95% CI 59%, 96%) with bleeding present in week 1 to 8% (95% CI 5%, 12%) with nausea/vomiting present in week 5. Relationships between signs/symptoms and pregnancy loss vary in early pregnancy possibly reflecting maternal physiologic response. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of tag loss on direct estimates of population growth rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

The temporal symmetry approach of R. Pradel can be used with capture-recapture data to produce retrospective estimates of a population's growth rate, lambda(i), and the relative contributions to lambda(i) from different components of the population. Direct estimation of lambda(i) provides an alternative to using population projection matrices to estimate asymptotic lambda and is seeing increased use. However, the robustness of direct estimates of lambda(1) to violations of several key assumptions has not yet been investigated. Here, we consider tag loss as a possible source of bias for scenarios in which the rate of tag loss is (1) the same for all marked animals in the population and (2) a function of tag age. We computed analytic approximations of the expected values for each of the parameter estimators involved in direct estimation and used those values to calculate bias and precision for each parameter estimator. Estimates of lambda(i) were robust to homogeneous rates of tag loss. When tag loss rates varied by tag age, bias occurred for some of the sampling situations evaluated, especially those with low capture probability, a high rate of tag loss, or both. For situations with low rates of tag loss and high capture probability, bias was low and often negligible. Estimates of contributions of demographic components to lambda(i) were not robust to tag loss. Tag loss reduced the precision of all estimates because tag loss results in fewer marked animals remaining available for estimation. Clearly tag loss should be prevented if possible, and should be considered in analyses of lambda(i), but tag loss does not necessarily preclude unbiased estimation of lambda(i).

An innovative method for offshore wind farm site selection based on the interval number with probability distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yunna; Chen, Kaifeng; Xu, Hu; Xu, Chuanbo; Zhang, Haobo; Yang, Meng

2017-12-01

There is insufficient research relating to offshore wind farm site selection in China. The current methods for site selection have some defects. First, information loss is caused by two aspects: the implicit assumption that the probability distribution on the interval number is uniform; and ignoring the value of decision makers' (DMs') common opinion on the criteria information evaluation. Secondly, the difference in DMs' utility function has failed to receive attention. An innovative method is proposed in this article to solve these drawbacks. First, a new form of interval number and its weighted operator are proposed to reflect the uncertainty and reduce information loss. Secondly, a new stochastic dominance degree is proposed to quantify the interval number with a probability distribution. Thirdly, a two-stage method integrating the weighted operator with stochastic dominance degree is proposed to evaluate the alternatives. Finally, a case from China proves the effectiveness of this method.

Review of literature surface tension data for molten silicon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, S.

1981-01-01

Measurements of the surface tension of molten silicon are reported. For marangoni flow, the important parameter is the variation of surface tension with temperature, not the absolute value of the surface tension. It is not possible to calculate temperature coefficients using surface tension measurements from different experiments because the systematic errors are usually larger than the changes in surface tension because of temperature variations. The lack of good surface tension data for liquid silicon is probably due to its extreme chemical reactivity. A material which resists attack by molten silicon is not found. It is suggested that all of the sessile drip surface tension measurements are probably for silicon which is contaminated by the substrate materials.

Evaluating the influential priority of the factors on insurance loss of public transit

PubMed Central

Su, Yongmin; Chen, Xinqiang

2018-01-01

Understanding correlation between influential factors and insurance losses is beneficial for insurers to accurately price and modify the bonus-malus system. Although there have been a certain number of achievements in insurance losses and claims modeling, limited efforts focus on exploring the relative role of accidents characteristics in insurance losses. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the influential priority of transit accidents attributes, such as the time, location and type of accidents. Based on the dataset from Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP) in USA, we implement several key algorithms to achieve the objectives. First, K-means algorithm contributes to cluster the insurance loss data into 6 intervals; second, Grey Relational Analysis (GCA) model is applied to calculate grey relational grades of the influential factors in each interval; in addition, we implement Naive Bayes model to compute the posterior probability of factors values falling in each interval. The results show that the time, location and type of accidents significantly influence the insurance loss in the first five intervals, but their grey relational grades show no significantly difference. In the last interval which represents the highest insurance loss, the grey relational grade of the time is significant higher than that of the location and type of accidents. For each value of the time and location, the insurance loss most likely falls in the first and second intervals which refers to the lower loss. However, for accidents between buses and non-motorized road users, the probability of insurance loss falling in the interval 6 tends to be highest. PMID:29298337

Evaluating the influential priority of the factors on insurance loss of public transit.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenhui; Su, Yongmin; Ke, Ruimin; Chen, Xinqiang

2018-01-01

Understanding correlation between influential factors and insurance losses is beneficial for insurers to accurately price and modify the bonus-malus system. Although there have been a certain number of achievements in insurance losses and claims modeling, limited efforts focus on exploring the relative role of accidents characteristics in insurance losses. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the influential priority of transit accidents attributes, such as the time, location and type of accidents. Based on the dataset from Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP) in USA, we implement several key algorithms to achieve the objectives. First, K-means algorithm contributes to cluster the insurance loss data into 6 intervals; second, Grey Relational Analysis (GCA) model is applied to calculate grey relational grades of the influential factors in each interval; in addition, we implement Naive Bayes model to compute the posterior probability of factors values falling in each interval. The results show that the time, location and type of accidents significantly influence the insurance loss in the first five intervals, but their grey relational grades show no significantly difference. In the last interval which represents the highest insurance loss, the grey relational grade of the time is significant higher than that of the location and type of accidents. For each value of the time and location, the insurance loss most likely falls in the first and second intervals which refers to the lower loss. However, for accidents between buses and non-motorized road users, the probability of insurance loss falling in the interval 6 tends to be highest.

The Effects of Revealed Information on Catastrophe Loss Projection Models' Characterization of Risk: Damage Vulnerability Evidence from Florida.

PubMed

Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F

2016-06-01

We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Close Look at the Structure of the TiO2-APTES Interface in Hybrid Nanomaterials and Its Degradation Pathway: An Experimental and Theoretical Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The surface functionalization of TiO2-based materials with alkylsilanes is attractive in several cutting-edge applications, such as photovoltaics, sensors, and nanocarriers for the controlled release of bioactive molecules. (3-Aminopropyl)triethoxysilane (APTES) is able to self-assemble to form monolayers on TiO2 surfaces, but its adsorption geometry and solar-induced photodegradation pathways are not well understood. We here employ advanced experimental (XPS, NEXAFS, AFM, HR-TEM, and FT-IR) and theoretical (plane-wave DFT) tools to investigate the preferential interaction mode of APTES on anatase TiO2. We demonstrate that monomeric APTES chemisorption should proceed through covalent Si–O–Ti bonds. Although dimerization of the silane through Si–O–Si bonds is possible, further polymerization on the surface is scarcely probable. Terminal amino groups are expected to be partially involved in strong charge-assisted hydrogen bonds with surface hydroxyl groups of TiO2, resulting in a reduced propensity to react with other species. Solar-induced mineralization proceeds through preferential cleavage of the alkyl groups, leading to the rapid loss of the terminal NH2 moieties, whereas the Si-bearing head of APTES undergoes slower oxidation and remains bound to the surface. The suitability of employing the silane as a linker with other chemical species is discussed in the context of controlled degradation of APTES monolayers for drug release and surface patterning. PMID:28191270

Thin film growth by 3D multi-particle diffusion limited aggregation model: Anomalous roughening and fractal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasehnejad, Maryam; Nabiyouni, G.; Gholipour Shahraki, Mehran

2018-03-01

In this study a 3D multi-particle diffusion limited aggregation method is employed to simulate growth of rough surfaces with fractal behavior in electrodeposition process. A deposition model is used in which the radial motion of the particles with probability P, competes with random motions with probability 1 - P. Thin films growth is simulated for different values of probability P (related to the electric field) and thickness of the layer(related to the number of deposited particles). The influence of these parameters on morphology, kinetic of roughening and the fractal dimension of the simulated surfaces has been investigated. The results show that the surface roughness increases with increasing the deposition time and scaling exponents exhibit a complex behavior which is called as anomalous scaling. It seems that in electrodeposition process, radial motion of the particles toward the growing seeds may be an important mechanism leading to anomalous scaling. The results also indicate that the larger values of probability P, results in smoother topography with more densely packed structure. We have suggested a dynamic scaling ansatz for interface width has a function of deposition time, scan length and probability. Two different methods are employed to evaluate the fractal dimension of the simulated surfaces which are "cube counting" and "roughness" methods. The results of both methods show that by increasing the probability P or decreasing the deposition time, the fractal dimension of the simulated surfaces is increased. All gained values for fractal dimensions are close to 2.5 in the diffusion limited aggregation model.

Human lung surfactant protein A exists in several different oligomeric states: oligomer size distribution varies between patient groups.

PubMed Central

Hickling, T. P.; Malhotra, R.; Sim, R. B.

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: Lung surfactant protein A (SP-A) is a complex molecule composed of up to 18 polypeptide chains. In vivo, SP-A probably binds to a wide range of inhaled materials via the interaction of surface carbohydrates with the lectin domains of SP-A and mediates their interaction with cells as part of a natural defense system. Multiplicity of lectin domains gives high-affinity binding to carbohydrate-bearing surfaces. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Gel filtration analyses were performed on bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid samples from three patient groups: pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (n = 12), birch pollen allergy (n = 11), and healthy volunteers (n = 4). Sucrose density gradient centrifugation was employed to determine molecular weights of SP-A oligomers. SP-A was solubilized from the lipid phase to compare oligomeric state with that of water soluble SP-A. RESULTS: SP-A exists as fully assembled complexes with 18 polypeptide chains, but it is also consistently found in smaller oligomeric forms. This is true for both the water- and lipid-soluble fractions of SP-A. CONCLUSION: The three patient groups analyzed show a shift towards lower oligomeric forms of SP-A in the following sequence: healthy-pulmonary alveolar proteinosis-pollen allergy. Depolymerization would be expected to lead to loss of binding affinity for carbohydrate-rich surfaces, with loss or alteration of biological function. While there are many complex factors involved in the establishment of an allergy, it is possible that reduced participation of SP-A in clearing a potential allergen from the lungs could be an early step in the chain of events. Images Fig. 4 FIG. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 PMID:9606179

Kinetic aspects of chain growth in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.

PubMed

Filot, Ivo A W; Zijlstra, Bart; Broos, Robin J P; Chen, Wei; Pestman, Robert; Hensen, Emiel J M

2017-04-28

Microkinetics simulations are used to investigate the elementary reaction steps that control chain growth in the Fischer-Tropsch reaction. Chain growth in the FT reaction on stepped Ru surfaces proceeds via coupling of CH and CR surface intermediates. Essential to the growth mechanism are C-H dehydrogenation and C hydrogenation steps, whose kinetic consequences have been examined by formulating two novel kinetic concepts, the degree of chain-growth probability control and the thermodynamic degree of chain-growth probability control. For Ru the CO conversion rate is controlled by the removal of O atoms from the catalytic surface. The temperature of maximum CO conversion rate is higher than the temperature to obtain maximum chain-growth probability. Both maxima are determined by Sabatier behavior, but the steps that control chain-growth probability are different from those that control the overall rate. Below the optimum for obtaining long hydrocarbon chains, the reaction is limited by the high total surface coverage: in the absence of sufficient vacancies the CHCHR → CCHR + H reaction is slowed down. Beyond the optimum in chain-growth probability, CHCR + H → CHCHR and OH + H → H 2 O limit the chain-growth process. The thermodynamic degree of chain-growth probability control emphasizes the critical role of the H and free-site coverage and shows that at high temperature, chain depolymerization contributes to the decreased chain-growth probability. That is to say, during the FT reaction chain growth is much faster than chain depolymerization, which ensures high chain-growth probability. The chain-growth rate is also fast compared to chain-growth termination and the steps that control the overall CO conversion rate, which are O removal steps for Ru.

Chapter 6. Synthesis of management and research considerations

Treesearch

Michael K. Young

1995-01-01

The five subspecies of cutthroat trout considered in this assessment share one characteristic: the loss of populations throughout their historical ranges. Similar causes have led to these losses: the introduction of nonnative fishes, overharvest, habitat degradation, and probably habitat fragmentation. Synergism among these effects remains unstudied, and we do not...

Sulfur Dioxide and Material Damage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillette, Donald G.

1975-01-01

This study relates sulfur dioxide levels with material damage in heavily populated or polluted areas. Estimates of loss were determined from increased maintenance and replacement costs. The data indicate a decrease in losses during the past five years probably due to decline in pollution levels established by air quality standards. (MR)

Transient Hearing Loss in Adults Associated With Zika Virus Infection.

PubMed

Vinhaes, Eriko S; Santos, Luciane A; Dias, Lislane; Andrade, Nilvano A; Bezerra, Victor H; de Carvalho, Anderson T; de Moraes, Laise; Henriques, Daniele F; Azar, Sasha R; Vasilakis, Nikos; Ko, Albert I; Andrade, Bruno B; Siqueira, Isadora C; Khouri, Ricardo; Boaventura, Viviane S

2017-03-01

In 2015, during the outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, we identified 3 cases of acute hearing loss after exanthematous illness. Serology yielded finding compatible with ZIKV as the cause of a confirmed (n = 1) and a probable (n = 2) flavivirus infection, indicating an association between ZIKV infection and transient hearing loss. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

PubMed

Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

2005-06-15

Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

Otological diagnoses and probable age-related auditory neuropathy in "younger" and "older" elderly persons.

PubMed

Rosenhall, Ulf; Hederstierna, Christina; Idrizbegovic, Esma

2011-09-01

Audiological data from a population based epidemiological investigation were studied on elderly persons. Specific diagnoses of otological and audiological disorders, which can result in hearing loss, were searched for. A retrospective register study. Three age cohorts, 474 70- and 75-year olds ("younger"), and 252 85-year olds ("older"), were studied. Clinical pure tone and speech audiometry was used. Data from medical files were included. Conductive hearing loss was diagnosed in 6.1% of the "younger" elderly persons, and in 10.3% of the "older" ones. Specific diagnoses (chronic otitis media and otosclerosis) were established in about half of the cases. Sensorineural hearing loss, other than age-related hearing loss and noise induced hearing loss, was diagnosed in 3.4 % and 5.2% respectively. Severely impaired speech recognition, possibly reflecting age-related auditory neuropathy, was found in 0.4% in the "younger" group, and in 10% in the "older" group. Bilateral functional deafness was present in 3.2% of the 85-year-old persons, but was not present in the 70-75-year group. The incidence of probable age-related auditory neuropathy increases considerably from 70-75 to 85 years. There are marked differences between "younger" and "older" elderly persons regarding hearing loss that severely affects oral communication.

Simulation of nonlinear superconducting rf losses derived from characteristic topography of etched and electropolished niobium surfaces

DOE PAGES

Xu, Chen; Reece, Charles E.; Kelley, Michael J.

2016-03-22

A simplified numerical model has been developed to simulate nonlinear superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) losses on Nb surfaces. This study focuses exclusively on excessive surface resistance (R s) losses due to the microscopic topographical magnetic field enhancements. When the enhanced local surface magnetic field exceeds the superconducting critical transition magnetic field H c, small volumes of surface material may become normal conducting and increase the effective surface resistance without inducing a quench. We seek to build an improved quantitative characterization of this qualitative model. Using topographic data from typical buffered chemical polish (BCP)- and electropolish (EP)-treated fine grain niobium, we havemore » estimated the resulting field-dependent losses and extrapolated this model to the implications for cavity performance. The model predictions correspond well to the characteristic BCP versus EP high field Q 0 performance differences for fine grain niobium. Lastly, we describe the algorithm of the model, its limitations, and the effects of this nonlinear loss contribution on SRF cavity performance.« less

Rate and reaction probability of the surface reaction between ozone and dihydromyrcenol measured in a bench scale reactor and a room-sized chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Shi; Morrison, Glenn C.

2012-02-01

Low volatility terpenoids emitted from consumer products can react with ozone on surfaces and may significantly alter concentrations of ozone, terpenoids and reaction products in indoor air. We measured the reaction probability and a second-order surface-specific reaction rate for the ozonation of dihydromyrcenol, a representative indoor terpenoid, adsorbed onto polyvinylchloride (PVC), glass, and latex paint coated spheres. The reaction probability ranged from (0.06-8.97) × 10 -5 and was very sensitive to humidity, substrate and mass adsorbed. The average surface reaction probability is about 10 times greater than that for the gas-phase reaction. The second-order surface-specific rate coefficient ranged from (0.32-7.05) × 10 -15 cm 4 s -1 molecule -1and was much less sensitive to humidity, substrate, or mass adsorbed. We also measured the ozone deposition velocity due to adsorbed dihydromyrcenol on painted drywall in a room-sized chamber, Based on that, we calculated the rate coefficient ((0.42-1.6) × 10 -15 cm 4 molecule -1 s -1), which was consistent with that derived from bench-scale experiments for the latex paint under similar conditions. We predict that more than 95% of dihydromyrcenol oxidation takes place on indoor surfaces, rather than in building air.

The Sources and Significance of Stratospheric Water Vapor: Mechanistic Studies from Equator to Pole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Jessica Birte

It is the future of the stratospheric ozone layer, which protects life at Earth's surface from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation, that is the focus of the present work. Fundamental changes in the composition and structure of the stratosphere in response to anthropogenic climate forcing may lead to catastrophic ozone loss under current, and even reduced, stratospheric halogen loading. In particular, the evolution toward a colder, wetter stratosphere, threatens to enhance the heterogeneous conversion of inorganic halogen from its reservoir species to its catalytically active forms, and thus promote in situ ozone loss. Water vapor concentrations control the availability of reactive surface area, which facilitates heterogeneous chemistry. Furthermore, the rates of the key heterogeneous processes are tightly controlled by the ambient humidity. Thus, credible predictions of UV dosage require a quantitative understanding of both the sensitivity of these chemical mechanisms to water vapor concentrations, and an elucidation of the processes controlling stratospheric water vapor concentrations. Toward this end, we present a set of four case studies utilizing high resolution in situ data acquired aboard NASA aircraft during upper atmospheric research missions over the past two decades. 1) We examine the broad scale humidity structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from the midlatitudes to the tropics, focusing on cirrus formation and dehydration at the cold-point tropical tropopause. The data show evidence for frequent supersaturation in clear air, and sustained supersaturation in the presence of cirrus. These results challenge the strict thermal control of the tropical tropopause. 2) We investigate the likelihood of cirrus-initiated activation of chlorine in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. At midlatitudes the transition from conditions near saturation below the local tropopause to undersaturated air above greatly reduces the probability of heterogeneous activation and in situ ozone loss in this region. 3) We probe the details of heterogeneous processing in the wintertime Arctic vortex, and find that in situ measurements of OH provide incontrovertible evidence for the heterogeneous reaction of HOCl with HCl. This reaction is critical to sustaining catalytically active chlorine and prolonging ozone loss in the springtime vortex. 4) We revisit the topic of midlatitude ozone loss with an emphasis upon the response of ozone in this region to changes in the chemical composition and thermal structure of the lower stratosphere induced by anthropogenic climate change. Specifically, we show evidence for episodic moisture plumes in the overworld stratosphere generated by the rapid evaporation of ice injected into this region by deep convection, and find that these high water vapor plumes have the potential to alter the humidity of the lower stratosphere, and drastically increase the rate of heterogeneous chemistry and in situ ozone loss, given sufficient reactive surface.

Variation of relative intensities between surface and bulk plasmon losses due to crystal orientations for aluminium in low energy electron reflection loss spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinokawa, T.; Le Gressus, C.; Mogami, A.; Pellerin, F.; Massignon, D.

The contrast change of secondary electron images due to the crystal orientations is observed by the ultra high vacuum scanning electron microscope (UHV-SEM) for crystal grains of clean surface of polycrystalline Al in the primary energy Ep of 200 eV to 5 KeV. The low energy electron loss spectra are measured by the cylindrical mirror analyzer. The relative intensity ratio between surface and bulk plasmon loss spectra was dependent on the crystal orientations. The SEM images taken by the surface and bulk plasmon signals at Ep = 230 eV show the inverse contrast depending on the grains. The inversion of the relative intensities between the surface and bulk plasmon losses is explained qualitatively by taking into account of variation of the penetration depth of the incident beam caused by the electron channeling.

Variation of relative intensities between surface and bulk plasmon losses due to crystal orientations for aluminium in low energy electron reflection loss spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinokawa, T.; Le Gressus, C.; Mogami, A.; Pellerin, F.; Massignon, D.

1981-10-01

The contrast change of secondary electron images due to the crystal orientations is observed by the ultra high vacuum scanning electron microscope (UHV-SEM) for crystal grains of clean surface of polycrystalline Al in the primary energy Ep of 200 eV to 5 keV. The low energy electron loss spectra are measured by the cylindrical mirror analyzer. The relative intensity ratio between surface and bulk plasmon loss spectra was dependent on the crystal orientations. The SEM images taken by the surface and bulk plasmon signals at Ep = 230 eV show the inverse contrast depending on the grains. The inversion of the relative intensities between the surface and bulk plasmon losses is explained qualitatively by taking into account of variation of the penetration depth of the incident beam caused by the electron channeling.

Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Chen, Can; Li, Tienan; Sun, Jian; Chen, Feng

2016-01-01

Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society. PMID:28036009

Resource Loss Moderates the Association Between Child Abuse and Current PTSD Symptoms Among Women in Primary-Care Settings.

PubMed

Costa, Eleonora C V; Guimarães, Sara; Ferreira, Domingos; Pereira, M Graça

2016-09-01

This study examined if abuse during childhood, rape in adulthood, and loss of resources predict a woman's probability of reporting symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and whether resource loss moderates the association between reporting childhood abuse and PTSD symptoms. The sample included 767 women and was collected in publicly funded primary-care settings. Women who reported having been abused during childhood also reported more resource loss, more acute PTSD symptoms, and having suffered more adult rape than those who reported no childhood abuse. Hierarchical logistic regression yielded a two-variable additive model in which child abuse and adult rape predict the probability of reporting or not any PTSD symptoms, explaining 59.7% of the variance. Women abused as children were 1 to 2 times more likely to report PTSD symptoms, with sexual abuse during childhood contributing most strongly to this result. Similarly, women reporting adult rape were almost twice as likely to report symptoms of PTSD as those not reporting it. Resource loss was unexpectedly not among the predictors but a moderation analysis showed that such loss moderated the association between child abuse and current PTSD symptoms, with resource loss increasing the number and severity of PTSD symptoms in women who also reported childhood abuse. The findings highlight the importance of early assessment and intervention in providing mental health care to abused, neglected, and impoverished women to help them prevent and reverse resource loss and revictimization.

Complicated grief associated with hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Shear, M Katherine; McLaughlin, Katie A; Ghesquiere, Angela; Gruber, Michael J; Sampson, Nancy A; Kessler, Ronald C

2011-08-01

Although losses are important consequences of disasters, few epidemiological studies of disasters have assessed complicated grief (CG) and none assessed CG associated with losses other than death of loved one. Data come from the baseline survey of the Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group, a representative sample of 3,088 residents of the areas directly affected by Hurricane Katrina. A brief screen for CG was included containing four items consistent with the proposed DSM-V criteria for a diagnosis of bereavement-related adjustment disorder. Fifty-eight and half percent of respondents reported a significant hurricane-related loss: Most-severe losses were 29.0% tangible, 9.5% interpersonal, 8.1% intangible, 4.2% work/financial, and 3.7% death of loved one. Twenty-six point one percent respondents with significant loss had possible CG and 7.0% moderate-to-severe CG. Death of loved one was associated with the highest conditional probability of moderate-to-severe CG (18.5%, compared to 1.1-10.5% conditional probabilities for other losses), but accounted for only 16.5% of moderate-to-severe CG due to its comparatively low prevalence. Most moderate-to-severe CG was due to tangible (52.9%) or interpersonal (24.0%) losses. Significant predictors of CG were mostly unique to either bereavement (racial-ethnic minority status, social support) or other losses (prehurricane history of psychopathology, social competence.). Nonbereavement losses accounted for the vast majority of hurricane-related possible CG despite risk of CG being much higher in response to bereavement than to other losses. This result argues for expansion of research on CG beyond bereavement and alerts clinicians to the need to address postdisaster grief associated with a wide range of losses. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Complicated grief associated with Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Shear, M. Katherine; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Ghesquiere, Angela; Gruber, Michael J.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2011-01-01

Background Although losses are important consequences of disasters, few epidemiological studies of disasters have assessed complicated grief (CG) and none assessed CG associated with losses other than death of loved one. Methods Data come from the baseline survey of the Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group (CAG), a representative sample of 3,088 residents of the areas directly affected by Hurricane Katrina. A brief screen for CG was included containing four items consistent with the proposed DSM 5 criteria for a diagnosis of bereavement-related adjustment disorder. Results 58.5% of respondents reported a significant hurricane-related loss: Most-severe losses were 29.0% tangible, 9.5% interpersonal, 8.1% intangible, 4.2% work-financial, and 3.7% death of loved one. 26.1% of respondents with significant loss had possible CG and 7.0% moderate-severe CG. Death of loved one was associated with the highest conditional probability of moderate-severe CG (18.5%, compared to 1.1–10.5% conditional probabilities for other losses) but accounted for only 16.5% of moderate-severe CG due to its comparatively low prevalence. Most moderate-severe CG was due to tangible (52.9%) or interpersonal (24.0%) losses. Significant predictors of CG were mostly unique to either bereavement (racial-ethnic minority status, social support) or other losses (pre-hurricane history of psychopathology, social competence.). Conclusions Non-bereavement losses accounted for the vast majority of hurricane-related possible CG despite risk of CG being much higher in response to bereavement than to other losses. This result argues for expansion of research on CG beyond bereavement and alerts clinicians to the need to address post-disaster grief associated with a wide range of losses. PMID:21796740

Vertical changes in the probability distribution of downward irradiance within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gernez, Pierre; Stramski, Dariusz; Darecki, Miroslaw

2011-07-01

Time series measurements of fluctuations in underwater downward irradiance, Ed, within the green spectral band (532 nm) show that the probability distribution of instantaneous irradiance varies greatly as a function of depth within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions. Because of intense light flashes caused by surface wave focusing, the near-surface probability distributions are highly skewed to the right and are heavy tailed. The coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis at depths smaller than 1 m can exceed 3 and 20, respectively. We tested several probability models, such as lognormal, Gumbel, Fréchet, log-logistic, and Pareto, which are potentially suited to describe the highly skewed heavy-tailed distributions. We found that the models cannot approximate with consistently good accuracy the high irradiance values within the right tail of the experimental distribution where the probability of these values is less than 10%. This portion of the distribution corresponds approximately to light flashes with Ed > 1.5?, where ? is the time-averaged downward irradiance. However, the remaining part of the probability distribution covering all irradiance values smaller than the 90th percentile can be described with a reasonable accuracy (i.e., within 20%) with a lognormal model for all 86 measurements from the top 10 m of the ocean included in this analysis. As the intensity of irradiance fluctuations decreases with depth, the probability distribution tends toward a function symmetrical around the mean like the normal distribution. For the examined data set, the skewness and excess kurtosis assumed values very close to zero at a depth of about 10 m.

Mirages and the nature of Pluto's atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stansberry, J. A.; Lunine, J. I.; Hubbard, W. B.; Yelle, R. V.; Hunten, D. M.

1994-01-01

We present model occultation lightcurves demonstrating that a strong thermal inversion layer at the base of Pluto's stratosphere can reproduce the minimum flux measured by the Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO) during the 1988 occultation of a star by Pluto. The inversion layer also forms the occultation equivalent of a mirage at a radius of 1198 km, which is capable of hiding tropospheres of significant depth. Pluto's surface lies below 1198 km, its radius depending on the depth of the troposphere. We begin by computing plausible temperature structures for Pluto's lower atmosphere, constrained by a calculation of the temperature of the atmosphere near the surface. We then trace rays from the occulted star through the model atmosphere, computing the resultant bending of the ray. Model light curves are obtained by summing the contribution of individual rays within the shadow of Pluto on Earth. We find that we can reproduce the KAO lightcurve using model atmospheres with a temperature inversion and no haze. We have explored models with tropospheres as deep as 40 km (implying a Pluto radius of 1158 km) that reproduce the suite of occultation data. Deeper tropospheres can be fitted to the data, but the mutual event radius of 1150 km probably provides a lower bound. If Pluto has a shallow or nonexistent troposphere, its density is consistent with formation in the solar nebula with modest water loss due to impact ejection. If the troposhere is relatively deep, implying a smaller radius and larger density, significant amounts of water loss are required.

Risk Management Model in Surface Exploitation of Mineral Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stojanović, Cvjetko

2016-06-01

Risk management is an integrative part of all types of project management. One of the main tasks of pre-investment studies and other project documentation is the tendency to protect investment projects as much as possible against investment risks. Therefore, the provision and regulation of risk information ensure the identification of the probability of the emergence of adverse events, their forms, causes and consequences, and provides a timely measures of protection against risks. This means that risk management involves a set of management methods and techniques used to reduce the possibility of realizing the adverse events and consequences and thus increase the possibilities of achieving the planned results with minimal losses. Investment in mining projects are of capital importance because they are very complex projects, therefore being very risky, because of the influence of internal and external factors and limitations arising from the socio-economic environment. Due to the lack of a risk management system, numerous organizations worldwide have suffered significant financial losses. Therefore, it is necessary for any organization to establish a risk management system as a structural element of system management system as a whole. This paper presents an approach to a Risk management model in the project of opening a surface coal mine, developed based on studies of extensive scientific literature and personal experiences of the author, and which, with certain modifications, may find use for any investment project, both in the mining industry as well as in investment projects in other areas.

Characterization of Deactivated Bio-oil Hydrotreating Catalysts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Huamin; Wang, Yong

Deactivation of bio-oil hydrotreating catalysts remains a significant challenge because of the poor quality of pyrolysis bio-oil input for hydrotreating and understanding their deactivation mode is critical to developing improved catalysts and processes. In this research, we developed an understanding of the deactivation of two-step bio-oil hydrotreating catalysts (sulfided Ru/C and sulfided CoMo/C) through detailed characterization of the catalysts using various complimentary analytical techniques. Severe fouling of both catalysts by carbonaceous species was the major form of deactivation, which is consistent with the significant loss of surface area and pore volume of both deactivated catalysts and the significant increase ofmore » the bulk density. Further analysis of the carbonaceous species by thermogravimetric analysis and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy indicated that the carbonaceous species was formed by condensation reaction of active species such as sugars and sugar derivatives (aldehydes and ketones) in bio-oil feedstock during bio-oil hydrotreating under the conditions and catalysts used. Microscopy results did not show metal sintering of the Ru/C catalyst. However, X-ray diffraction indicated a probable transformation of the highly-active CoMoS phase in the sulfided CoMo/C catalyst to Co8S9 and MoS2 phase with low activity. Loss of the active site by transport of inorganic elements from the bio-oil and the reactor construction material onto the catalyst surface also might be a cause of deactivation as indicated by elemental analysis of spent catalysts.« less

Fusion competent synaptic vesicles persist upon active zone disruption and loss of vesicle docking

PubMed Central

Wang, Shan Shan H.; Held, Richard G.; Wong, Man Yan; Liu, Changliang; Karakhanyan, Aziz; Kaeser, Pascal S.

2016-01-01

In a nerve terminal, synaptic vesicle docking and release are restricted to an active zone. The active zone is a protein scaffold that is attached to the presynaptic plasma membrane and opposed to postsynaptic receptors. Here, we generated conditional knockout mice removing the active zone proteins RIM and ELKS, which additionally led to loss of Munc13, Bassoon, Piccolo, and RIM-BP, indicating disassembly of the active zone. We observed a near complete lack of synaptic vesicle docking and a strong reduction in vesicular release probability and the speed of exocytosis, but total vesicle numbers, SNARE protein levels, and postsynaptic densities remained unaffected. Despite loss of the priming proteins Munc13 and RIM and of docked vesicles, a pool of releasable vesicles remained. Thus, the active zone is necessary for synaptic vesicle docking and to enhance release probability, but releasable vesicles can be localized distant from the presynaptic plasma membrane. PMID:27537483

Bipolar nebulae and mass loss from red giant stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, M.

1985-01-01

Observations of several bipolar nebulae are used to learn something of the nature of mass loss from the probable red-giant progenitors of these nebulae. Phenomena discussed are: (1) probable GL 2688's optical molecular emissions; (2) newly discovered very high velocity knots along the axis of OH 0739 - 14, which reveal evidence for mass ejections of + or 300 km/s from the M9 III star embedded in this nebula; (3) the bipolar structure of three extreme carbon stars, and the evidence for periodic mass ejection in IRC + 30219, also at high speed (about 80 km/s); and (4) the curious cool TiO-rich region above Parsamian 13, which may represent the very recent shedding of photospheric material from a cool, oxygen-rich giant. Several general key questions about bipolar nebulae that relate to the process of mass loss from their progenitor stars are raised.

Modeling Phosphorus Losses through Surface Runoff and Subsurface Drainage Using ICECREAM.

PubMed

Qi, Hongkai; Qi, Zhiming; Zhang, T Q; Tan, C S; Sadhukhan, Debasis

2018-03-01

Modeling soil phosphorus (P) losses by surface and subsurface flow pathways is essential in developing successful strategies for P pollution control. We used the ICECREAM model to simultaneously simulate P losses in surface and subsurface flow, as well as to assess effectiveness of field practices in reducing P losses. Monitoring data from a mineral-P-fertilized clay loam field in southwestern Ontario, Canada, were used for calibration and validation. After careful adjustment of model parameters, ICECREAM was shown to satisfactorily simulate all major processes of surface and subsurface P losses. When the calibrated model was used to assess tillage and fertilizer management scenarios, results point to a 10% reduction in total P losses by shifting autumn tillage to spring, and a 25.4% reduction in total P losses by injecting fertilizer rather than broadcasting. Although the ICECREAM model was effective in simulating surface and subsurface P losses when thoroughly calibrated, further testing is needed to confirm these results with manure P application. As illustrated here, successful use of simulation models requires careful verification of model routines and comprehensive calibration to ensure that site-specific processes are accurately represented. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Responses of riparian cottonwoods to alluvial water table declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, M.L.; Shafroth, P.B.; Auble, G.T.

1999-01-01

Human demands for surface and shallow alluvial groundwater have contributed to the loss, fragmentation, and simplification of riparian ecosystems. Populus species typically dominate riparian ecosystems throughout arid and semiarid regions of North American and efforts to minimize loss of riparian Populus requires an integrated understanding of the role of surface and groundwater dynamics in the establishment of new, and maintenance of existing, stands. In a controlled, whole-stand field experiment, we quantified responses of Populus morphology, growth, and mortality to water stress resulting from sustained water table decline following in-channel sand mining along an ephemeral sandbed stream in eastern Colorado, USA. We measured live crown volume, radial stem growth, annual branch increment, and mortality of 689 live Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera stems over four years in conjunction with localized water table declines. Measurements began one year prior to mining and included trees in both affected and unaffected areas. Populus demonstrated a threshold response to water table declines in medium alluvial sands; sustained declines ???1 m produced leaf desiccation and branch dieback within three weeks and significant declines in live crown volume, stem growth, and 88% mortality over a three-year period. Declines in live Crown volume proved to be a significant leading indicator of mortality in the following year. A logistic regression of tree survival probability against the prior year's live crown volume was significant (-2 log likelihood = 270, ??2 with 1 df = 232, P < 0.0001) and trees with absolute declines in live crown volume of ???30 during one year had survival probabilities <0.5 in the following year. In contrast, more gradual water table declines of ~0.5 m had no measurable effect on mortality, stem growth, or live crown volume and produced significant declines only in annual branch growth increments. Developing quantitative information on the timing and extent of morphological responses and mortality of Populus to the rate, depth, and duration of water table declines can assist in the design of management prescriptions to minimize impacts of alluvial groundwater depletion on existing riparian Populus forests.

A rational decision rule with extreme events.

PubMed

Basili, Marcello

2006-12-01

Risks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or windfall gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decisionmaker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed.

Thermal History of Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springmann, Alessondra; Lauretta, Dante S.

2016-10-01

The connection between orbital and temperature history of small Solar System bodies has only been studied through modeling. The upcoming OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission provides an opportunity to connect thermal modeling predictions with laboratory studies of meteorites to predict past heating and thus dynamical histories of bodies such as OSIRIS-REx mission target asteroid (101955) Bennu. Bennu is a desirable target for asteroid sample return due to its inferred primitive nature, likely 4.5 Gyr old, with chemistry and mineralogy established in the first 10 Myr of solar system history (Lauretta et al. 2015). Delbo & Michel (2011) studied connections between the temperature and orbital history of Bennu. Their results suggest that the surface of Bennu (assuming no regolith turnover) has a 50% probability of being heated to 500 K in the past. Further, the Delbo & Michel simulations show that the temperature within the asteroid below the top layer of regolith could remain at temperatures ~100 K below that of the surface. The Touch-And-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism on OSIRIS-REx could access both the surface and near surface regolith, collecting primitive asteroid material for study in Earth-based laboratories in 2023. To quantify the effects of thermal metamorphism on the Bennu regolith, laboratory heating experiments on carbonaceous chondrite meteorites with compositions likely similar to that of Bennu were conducted from 300-1200 K. These experiments show mobilization and volatilization of a suite of labile elements (sulfur, mercury, arsenic, tellurium, selenium, antimony, and cadmium) at temperatures that could be reached by asteroids that cross Mercury's orbit. We are able to quantify element loss with temperature for several carbonaceous chondrites and use these results to constrain past orbital histories of Bennu. When OSIRIS-REx samples arrive for analysis we will be able to measure labile element loss in the material, determine maximum past temperature of the samples, and predict the past orbital and thermal history of Bennu.

Effectiveness of Africa's tropical protected areas for maintaining forest cover.

PubMed

Bowker, J N; De Vos, A; Ament, J M; Cumming, G S

2017-06-01

The effectiveness of parks for forest conservation is widely debated in Africa, where increasing human pressure, insufficient funding, and lack of management capacity frequently place significant demands on forests. Tropical forests house a substantial portion of the world's remaining biodiversity and are heavily affected by anthropogenic activity. We analyzed park effectiveness at the individual (224 parks) and national (23 countries) level across Africa by comparing the extent of forest loss (as a proxy for deforestation) inside parks to matched unprotected control sites. Although significant geographical variation existed among parks, the majority of African parks had significantly less forest loss within their boundaries (e.g., Mahale Park had 34 times less forest loss within its boundary) than control sites. Accessibility was a significant driver of forest loss. Relatively inaccessible areas had a higher probability (odds ratio >1, p < 0.001) of forest loss but only in ineffective parks, and relatively accessible areas had a higher probability of forest loss but only in effective parks. Smaller parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than larger parks (T = -2.32, p < 0.05), and older parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than younger parks (F 2,154 = -4.11, p < 0.001). Our analyses, the first individual and national assessment of park effectiveness across Africa, demonstrated the complexity of factors (such as geographical variation, accessibility, and park size and age) influencing the ability of a park to curb forest loss within its boundaries. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Accident hazard evaluation and control decisions on forested recreation sites

Treesearch

Lee A. Paine

1971-01-01

Accident hazard associated with trees on recreation sites is inherently concerned with probabilities. The major factors include the probabilities of mechanical failure and of target impact if failure occurs, the damage potential of the failure, and the target value. Hazard may be evaluated as the product of these factors; i.e., expected loss during the current...

Understanding clinical and non-clinical decisions under uncertainty: a scenario-based survey.

PubMed

Simianu, Vlad V; Grounds, Margaret A; Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E; Ehlers, Anne P; Agrawal, Nidhi; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Flaxman, Abraham D; Flum, David R

2016-12-01

Prospect theory suggests that when faced with an uncertain outcome, people display loss aversion by preferring to risk a greater loss rather than incurring certain, lesser cost. Providing probability information improves decision making towards the economically optimal choice in these situations. Clinicians frequently make decisions when the outcome is uncertain, and loss aversion may influence choices. This study explores the extent to which prospect theory, loss aversion, and probability information in a non-clinical domain explains clinical decision making under uncertainty. Four hundred sixty two participants (n = 117 non-medical undergraduates, n = 113 medical students, n = 117 resident trainees, and n = 115 medical/surgical faculty) completed a three-part online task. First, participants completed an iced-road salting task using temperature forecasts with or without explicit probability information. Second, participants chose between less or more risk-averse ("defensive medicine") decisions in standardized scenarios. Last, participants chose between recommending therapy with certain outcomes or risking additional years gained or lost. In the road salting task, the mean expected value for decisions made by clinicians was better than for non-clinicians(-$1,022 vs -$1,061; <0.001). Probability information improved decision making for all participants, but non-clinicians improved more (mean improvement of $64 versus $33; p = 0.027). Mean defensive decisions decreased across training level (medical students 2.1 ± 0.9, residents 1.6 ± 0.8, faculty1.6 ± 1.1; p-trend < 0.001) and prospect-theory-concordant decisions increased (25.4%, 33.9%, and 40.7%;p-trend = 0.016). There was no relationship identified between road salting choices with defensive medicine and prospect-theory-concordant decisions. All participants made more economically-rational decisions when provided explicit probability information in a non-clinical domain. However, choices in the non-clinical domain were not related to prospect-theory concordant decision making and risk aversion tendencies in the clinical domain. Recognizing this discordance may be important when applying prospect theory to interventions aimed at improving clinical care.

Design of a Field Test for Probability of Hit by Antiaircraft Guns

DTIC Science & Technology

1973-02-01

not available. • The cost of conducting the numerous field test trials that would be needed to establish the loss rates of aircraft to antiaircraft...mathematical models provide a readily available and relatively inexpensive way to obtain estimates of aircraft losses to antiaircraft guns. Because these...aircraft losses to antiaircraft guns, the use of the models can contribute greatly to better decisions. But if the models produce invalid estimates

The Effects of Reduced Tillage on Phosphate Transport from Agricultural Land.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

SOLUBLE INORGANIC I’IIOSPIORUS IN RUNOFF ................................................... 12 .F.ECT OF PHOSPHATE FERTILI ZATION ON LOSSES OF AVAILABLE...an reverse side if necessary end identifY by block number) Conservation Tillage Soil Loss Phosphorus Loss Surface Runoff 20 AMThAC? fCinf--- mbb iV...tillage (primarily no till) versus conventional tillage on surface runoff , soil loss and phosphorus loss. The data show that conservation tillage

Support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention: A network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Dumville, Jo C.; Cullum, Nicky

2018-01-01

Background Pressure ulcers are a prevalent and global issue and support surfaces are widely used for preventing ulceration. However, the diversity of available support surfaces and the lack of direct comparisons in RCTs make decision-making difficult. Objectives To determine, using network meta-analysis, the relative effects of different support surfaces in reducing pressure ulcer incidence and comfort and to rank these support surfaces in order of their effectiveness. Methods We conducted a systematic review, using a literature search up to November 2016, to identify randomised trials comparing support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We grouped the support surfaces according to their characteristics and formed evidence networks using these groups. We used network meta-analysis to estimate the relative effects and effectiveness ranking of the groups for the outcomes of pressure ulcer incidence and participant comfort. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. Main results We included 65 studies in the review. The network for assessing pressure ulcer incidence comprised evidence of low or very low certainty for most network contrasts. There was moderate-certainty evidence that powered active air surfaces and powered hybrid air surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence compared with standard hospital surfaces (risk ratios (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.29 to 0.63; 0.22, 0.07 to 0.66, respectively). The network for comfort suggested that powered active air-surfaces are probably slightly less comfortable than standard hospital mattresses (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; moderate-certainty evidence). Conclusions This is the first network meta-analysis of the effects of support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Powered active air-surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence, but are probably less comfortable than standard hospital surfaces. Most prevention evidence was of low or very low certainty, and more research is required to reduce these uncertainties. PMID:29474359

Support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention: A network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Chunhu; Dumville, Jo C; Cullum, Nicky

2018-01-01

Pressure ulcers are a prevalent and global issue and support surfaces are widely used for preventing ulceration. However, the diversity of available support surfaces and the lack of direct comparisons in RCTs make decision-making difficult. To determine, using network meta-analysis, the relative effects of different support surfaces in reducing pressure ulcer incidence and comfort and to rank these support surfaces in order of their effectiveness. We conducted a systematic review, using a literature search up to November 2016, to identify randomised trials comparing support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We grouped the support surfaces according to their characteristics and formed evidence networks using these groups. We used network meta-analysis to estimate the relative effects and effectiveness ranking of the groups for the outcomes of pressure ulcer incidence and participant comfort. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. We included 65 studies in the review. The network for assessing pressure ulcer incidence comprised evidence of low or very low certainty for most network contrasts. There was moderate-certainty evidence that powered active air surfaces and powered hybrid air surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence compared with standard hospital surfaces (risk ratios (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.29 to 0.63; 0.22, 0.07 to 0.66, respectively). The network for comfort suggested that powered active air-surfaces are probably slightly less comfortable than standard hospital mattresses (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; moderate-certainty evidence). This is the first network meta-analysis of the effects of support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Powered active air-surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence, but are probably less comfortable than standard hospital surfaces. Most prevention evidence was of low or very low certainty, and more research is required to reduce these uncertainties.

Assessing wildland fire risk transmission to communities in northern Spain

Treesearch

Fermín J. Alcasena; Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Rafael Castell; Cristina Vega-García

2017-01-01

We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain). Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306) in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert...

Use of FEC coding to improve statistical multiplexing performance for video transport over ATM networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurceren, Ragip; Modestino, James W.

1998-12-01

The use of forward error-control (FEC) coding, possibly in conjunction with ARQ techniques, has emerged as a promising approach for video transport over ATM networks for cell-loss recovery and/or bit error correction, such as might be required for wireless links. Although FEC provides cell-loss recovery capabilities it also introduces transmission overhead which can possibly cause additional cell losses. A methodology is described to maximize the number of video sources multiplexed at a given quality of service (QoS), measured in terms of decoded cell loss probability, using interlaced FEC codes. The transport channel is modelled as a block interference channel (BIC) and the multiplexer as single server, deterministic service, finite buffer supporting N users. Based upon an information-theoretic characterization of the BIC and large deviation bounds on the buffer overflow probability, the described methodology provides theoretically achievable upper limits on the number of sources multiplexed. Performance of specific coding techniques using interlaced nonbinary Reed-Solomon (RS) codes and binary rate-compatible punctured convolutional (RCPC) codes is illustrated.

Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

2014-05-01

This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

Quantitative Analysis of Land Loss in Coastal Louisiana Using Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wales, P. M.; Kuszmaul, J.; Roberts, C.

2005-12-01

For the past thirty-five years the land loss along the Louisiana Coast has been recognized as a growing problem. One of the clearest indicators of this land loss is that in 2000 smooth cord grass (spartina alterniflora) was turning brown well before its normal hibernation period. Over 100,000 acres of marsh were affected by the 2000 browning. In 2001 data were collected using low altitude helicopter based transects of the coast, with 7,400 data points being collected by researchers at the USGS, National Wetlands Research Center, and Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. The surveys contained data describing the characteristics of the marsh, including latitude, longitude, marsh condition, marsh color, percent vegetated, and marsh die-back. Creating a model that combines remote sensing images, field data, and statistical analysis to develop a methodology for estimating the margin of error in measurements of coastal land loss (erosion) is the ultimate goal of the study. A model was successfully created using a series of band combinations (used as predictive variables). The most successful band combinations or predictive variables were the braud value [(Sum Visible TM Bands - Sum Infrared TM Bands)/(Sum Visible TM Bands + Sum Infrared TM Bands)], TM band 7/ TM band 2, brightness, NDVI, wetness, vegetation index, and a 7x7 autocovariate nearest neighbor floating window. The model values were used to generate the logistic regression model. A new image was created based on the logistic regression probability equation where each pixel represents the probability of finding water or non-water at that location in each image. Pixels within each image that have a high probability of representing water have a value close to 1 and pixels with a low probability of representing water have a value close to 0. A logistic regression model is proposed that uses seven independent variables. This model yields an accurate classification in 86.5% of the locations considered in the 1997 and 2001 survey locations. When the logistic regression was modeled to the satellite imagery of the entire Louisiana Coast study area a statewide loss was estimated to be 358 mi2 to 368 mi2, from 1997 to 2001, using two different methods for estimating land loss.

Hydrogenation at low temperatures does not always lead to saturation: the case of HNCO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, J. A.; Theule, P.; Congiu, E.; Dulieu, F.; Bonnin, M.; Bassas, A.; Duvernay, F.; Danger, G.; Chiavassa, T.

2015-04-01

Context. It is generally agreed that hydrogenation reactions dominate chemistry on grain surfaces in cold, dense molecular cores, saturating the molecules present in ice mantles. Aims: We present a study of the low temperature reactivity of solid phase isocyanic acid (HNCO) with hydrogen atoms, with the aim of elucidating its reaction network. Methods: Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and mass spectrometry were employed to follow the evolution of pure HNCO ice during bombardment with H atoms. Both multilayer and monolayer regimes were investigated. Results: The hydrogenation of HNCO does not produce detectable amounts of formamide (NH2CHO) as the major product. Experiments using deuterium reveal that deuteration of solid HNCO occurs rapidly, probably via cyclic reaction paths regenerating HNCO. Chemical desorption during these reaction cycles leads to loss of HNCO from the surface. Conclusions: It is unlikely that significant quantities of NH2CHO form from HNCO. In dense regions, however, deuteration of HNCO will occur. HNCO and DNCO will be introduced into the gas phase, even at low temperatures, as a result of chemical desorption.

Application of environmental scanning electron microscopy to determine biological surface structure.

PubMed

Kirk, S E; Skepper, J N; Donald, A M

2009-02-01

The use of environmental scanning electron microscopy in biology is growing as more becomes understood about the advantages and limitations of the technique. These are discussed and we include new evidence about the effect of environmental scanning electron microscopy imaging on the viability of mammalian cells. We show that although specimen preparation for high-vacuum scanning electron microscopy introduces some artefacts, there are also challenges in the use of environmental scanning electron microscopy, particularly at higher resolutions. This suggests the two technologies are best used in combination. We have used human monocyte-derived macrophages as a test sample, imaging their complicated and delicate membrane ruffles and protrusions. We have also explored the possibility of using environmental scanning electron microscopy for dynamic experiments, finding that mammalian cells cannot be imaged and kept alive in the environmental scanning electron microscopy. The dehydration step in which the cell surface is exposed causes irreversible damage, probably via loss of membrane integrity during liquid removal in the specimen chamber. Therefore, mammalian cells should be imaged after fixation where possible to protect against damage as a result of chamber conditions.

Surface friction alters the agility of a small Australian marsupial.

PubMed

Wheatley, Rebecca; Clemente, Christofer J; Niehaus, Amanda C; Fisher, Diana O; Wilson, Robbie S

2018-04-23

Movement speed can underpin an animal's probability of success in ecological tasks. Prey often use agility to outmanoeuvre predators; however, faster speeds increase inertia and reduce agility. Agility is also constrained by grip, as the foot must have sufficient friction with the ground to apply the forces required for turning. Consequently, ground surface should affect optimum turning speed. We tested the speed-agility trade-off in buff-footed antechinus ( Antechinus mysticus ) on two different surfaces. Antechinus used slower turning speeds over smaller turning radii on both surfaces, as predicted by the speed-agility trade-off. Slipping was 64% more likely on the low-friction surface, and had a higher probability of occurring the faster the antechinus were running before the turn. However, antechinus compensated for differences in surface friction by using slower pre-turn speeds as their amount of experience on the low-friction surface increased, which consequently reduced their probability of slipping. Conversely, on the high-friction surface, antechinus used faster pre-turn speeds in later trials, which had no effect on their probability of slipping. Overall, antechinus used larger turning radii (0.733±0.062 versus 0.576±0.051 m) and slower pre-turn (1.595±0.058 versus 2.174±0.050 m s -1 ) and turning speeds (1.649±0.061 versus 2.01±0.054 m s -1 ) on the low-friction surface. Our results demonstrate the interactive effect of surface friction and the speed-agility trade-off on speed choice. To predict wild animals' movement speeds, future studies should examine the interactions between biomechanical trade-offs and terrain, and quantify the costs of motor mistakes in different ecological activities. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Analytic saddlepoint approximation for ionization energy loss distributions

DOE PAGES

Sjue, Sky K. L.; George, Jr., Richard Neal; Mathews, David Gregory

2017-07-27

Here, we present a saddlepoint approximation for ionization energy loss distributions, valid for arbitrary relativistic velocities of the incident particle 0 < v/c < 1, provided that ionizing collisions are still the dominant energy loss mechanism. We derive a closed form solution closely related to Moyal’s distribution. This distribution is intended for use in simulations with relatively low computational overhead. The approximation generally reproduces the Vavilov most probable energy loss and full width at half maximum to better than 1% and 10%, respectively, with significantly better agreement as Vavilov’s κ approaches 1.

Analytic saddlepoint approximation for ionization energy loss distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjue, S. K. L.; George, R. N.; Mathews, D. G.

2017-09-01

We present a saddlepoint approximation for ionization energy loss distributions, valid for arbitrary relativistic velocities of the incident particle 0 < v / c < 1 , provided that ionizing collisions are still the dominant energy loss mechanism. We derive a closed form solution closely related to Moyal's distribution. This distribution is intended for use in simulations with relatively low computational overhead. The approximation generally reproduces the Vavilov most probable energy loss and full width at half maximum to better than 1% and 10%, respectively, with significantly better agreement as Vavilov's κ approaches 1.

Analytic saddlepoint approximation for ionization energy loss distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sjue, Sky K. L.; George, Jr., Richard Neal; Mathews, David Gregory

Here, we present a saddlepoint approximation for ionization energy loss distributions, valid for arbitrary relativistic velocities of the incident particle 0 < v/c < 1, provided that ionizing collisions are still the dominant energy loss mechanism. We derive a closed form solution closely related to Moyal’s distribution. This distribution is intended for use in simulations with relatively low computational overhead. The approximation generally reproduces the Vavilov most probable energy loss and full width at half maximum to better than 1% and 10%, respectively, with significantly better agreement as Vavilov’s κ approaches 1.

Streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and characterization of surface-water and ground-water quality, southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara counties, California, 1996-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metzger, Loren F.

2002-01-01

San Francisquito Creek is an important source of recharge to the 22-square-mile San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan ground-water subbasin in the southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara Counties of California. Ground water supplies as much as 20 percent of the water to some area communities. Local residents are concerned that infiltration and consequently ground-water recharge would be reduced if additional flood-control measures are implemented along San Francisquito Creek. To improve the understanding of the surface-water/ground-water interaction between San Francisquito Creek and the San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and determined the chemical quality and isotopic composition of surface and ground water in the study area.Streamflow was measured at 13 temporary streamflow-measurement stations to determine streamflow gains and losses along a 8.4-mile section of San Francisquito Creek. A series of five seepage runs between April 1996 and May 1997 indicate that losses in San Francisquito Creek were negligible until it crossed the Pulgas Fault at Sand Hill Road. Streamflow losses increased between Sand Hill Road and Middlefield Road where the alluvial deposits are predominantly coarse-grained and the water table is below the bottom of the channel. The greatest streamflow losses were measured along a 1.8-mile section of the creek between the San Mateo Drive bike bridge and Middlefield Road; average losses between San Mateo Drive and Alma Street and from there to Middlefield Road were 3.1 and 2.5 acre-feet per day, respectively.Downstream from Middlefield Road, streamflow gains and losses owing to seepage may be masked by urban runoff, changes in bank storage, and tidal effects from San Francisco Bay. Streamflow gains measured between Middlefield Road and the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue may be attributable to urban runoff and (or) ground-water inflow. Water-level measurements from nearby wells indicate that the regional water table may coincide with the channel bottom along this reach of San Francisquito Creek, particularly during the winter and early spring when water levels usually reach their maximum. Streamflow losses resumed below the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue, extending downstream to Newell Road. Discharge from a large storm drain between Newell Road and East Bayshore Road may account for the streamflow gains measured between these sites. Streamflow gains were measured between East Bayshore Road and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, but this reach is difficult to characterize because of the probable influence of high tides.Estimated average streamflow losses totaled approximately 1,050 acre-feet per year for the reaches between USGS stream gage 11164500 at Stanford University (upstream of Junipero Serra Boulevard) and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, including approximately 595 acre-feet per year for the 1.8-mile section between San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road. Approximately 58 percent, or 550 acre-feet, of the total estimated average annual recharge from San Francisquito Creek occurs between the San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road sites.The chemical composition of San Francisquito Creek water varies as a function of seasonal changes in hydrologic conditions. Measurements of specific conductance indicate that during dry weather and low flow, the dissolved-solids concentrations tends to be high, and during wet weather, the concentration tends to be low owing to dilution by surface water. Compared with water samples from upstream sites at USGS stream gage 11164500 and San Mateo Drive, the samples from the downstream sites at Alma Street and Woodland Avenue had low specific conductance; low concentrations of magnesium, sodium, sulfate, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids; high nutrient concentrations; and light isotopic compositions indicating that urban runoff constitutes most of the streamflow

Monoamines and assessment of risks.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hidehiko

2012-12-01

Over the past decade, neuroeconomics studies utilizing neurophysiology methods (fMRI or EEG) have flourished, revealing the neural basis of 'boundedly rational' or 'irrational' decision-making that violates normative theory. The next question is how modulatory neurotransmission is involved in these central processes. Here I focused on recent efforts to understand how central monoamine transmission is related to nonlinear probability weighting and loss aversion, central features of prospect theory, which is a leading alternative to normative theory for decision-making under risk. Circumstantial evidence suggests that dopamine tone might be related to distortion of subjective reward probability and noradrenaline and serotonin tone might influence aversive emotional reaction to potential loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two tradeoffs between economy and reliability in loss of load probability constrained unit commitment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingqiang; Ning, Xingyao

2018-02-01

Spinning reserve (SR) should be scheduled considering the balance between economy and reliability. To address the computational intractability cursed by the computation of loss of load probability (LOLP), many probabilistic methods use simplified formulations of LOLP to improve the computational efficiency. Two tradeoffs embedded in the SR optimization model are not explicitly analyzed in these methods. In this paper, two tradeoffs including primary tradeoff and secondary tradeoff between economy and reliability in the maximum LOLP constrained unit commitment (UC) model are explored and analyzed in a small system and in IEEE-RTS System. The analysis on the two tradeoffs can help in establishing new efficient simplified LOLP formulations and new SR optimization models.

Subsurface application of poultry litter and its influence on nutrient losses in runoff water from permanent pastures.

PubMed

Watts, D B; Way, T R; Torbert, H A

2011-01-01

Environmental pressure to reduce nutrient losses from agricultural fields has increased in recent years. To abate this nutrient loss to the environment, better management practices and new technologies need to be developed. Thus, research was conducted to evaluate if subsurface banding poultry litter (PL) would reduce nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loss in surface water runoff using a four-row prototype implement. Rainfall simulations were conducted to create a 40-min runoff event in an established bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon L.) pasture on soil types common to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions. The Coastal Plain soil type was a Marvyn loamy sand (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kanhapludults) and the Piedmont soil type was a Hard Labor loamy sand (fine, kaolinitic, thermic Oxyaquic Kanhapludults). Treatments consisted of surface- and subsurface-applied PL at a rate of 9 Mg ha(-1), surface broadcast-applied commercial fertilizer (CF; urea and triple superphosphate blend) at the equivalent N (330 kg N ha(-1)) and P (315 kg N ha(-1)) content of PL, and a nonfertilized control. The greatest loss for inorganic N, total N, dissolved reactive P (DRP), and total P occurred with the surface broadcast treatments, with CF contributing to the greatest loss. Nutrient losses from the subsurface banded treatment reduced N and P in surface water runoff to levels of the control. Subsurface banding of PL reduced concentrations of inorganic N 91%, total N 90%, DRP 86%, and total P 86% in runoff water compared with surface broadcasted PL. These results show that subsurface band-applied PL can greatly reduce the impact of N and P loss to the environment compared with conventional surface-applied PL and CF practices.

Surface-induced dissociation of methanol cations: A non-ergodic process

DOE PAGES

Shukla, Anil K.

2017-09-01

Here, dissociation of methanol molecular cations, CH 3OH +, to CH 2OH + on collision with a self-assembled monolayer surface of fluorinated alkyl thiol on gold 111 crystal has been studied at 12.5 eV collision energy. Two energetically and spatially distinct processes contribute to the dissociation process: one involving loss of very large amount of energy approaching the initial kinetic energy of the primary ions with scattering of fragment ions over a broad angular range between surface normal and surface parallel while the second process results from small amount of energy loss with fragment ions scattered over a narrow angularmore » range close to the surface parallel. There is a third process with relatively small contribution to total dissociation whose characteristics are very similar to the low energy loss process. Finally, these results demonstrate that surface-induced dissociation of methanol cations via hydrogen loss is non-ergodic.« less

Surface-induced dissociation of methanol cations: A non-ergodic process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukla, Anil K.

Here, dissociation of methanol molecular cations, CH 3OH +, to CH 2OH + on collision with a self-assembled monolayer surface of fluorinated alkyl thiol on gold 111 crystal has been studied at 12.5 eV collision energy. Two energetically and spatially distinct processes contribute to the dissociation process: one involving loss of very large amount of energy approaching the initial kinetic energy of the primary ions with scattering of fragment ions over a broad angular range between surface normal and surface parallel while the second process results from small amount of energy loss with fragment ions scattered over a narrow angularmore » range close to the surface parallel. There is a third process with relatively small contribution to total dissociation whose characteristics are very similar to the low energy loss process. Finally, these results demonstrate that surface-induced dissociation of methanol cations via hydrogen loss is non-ergodic.« less

Energy loss from a moving vortex in superfluid helium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieve, R. J.; Frei, C. M.; Wolfson, D. L.

2012-11-01

We present measurements on both energy loss and pinning for a vortex terminating on the curved surface of a cylindrical container. We vary surface roughness, cell diameter, fluid velocity, and temperature. Although energy loss and pinning both arise from interactions between the vortex and the surface, their dependences on the experimental parameters differ, suggesting that different mechanisms govern the two effects. We propose that the energy loss stems from reconnections with a mesh of microscopic vortices that covers the cell wall, while pinning is dominated by other influences such as the local fluid velocity.

Loss of the Endothelial Glycocalyx Links Albuminuria and Vascular Dysfunction

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Joanne K.; Burford, James L.; Gevorgyan, Haykanush; Nakano, Daisuke; Harper, Steven J.; Bates, David O.; Peti-Peterdi, Janos

2012-01-01

Patients with albuminuria and CKD frequently have vascular dysfunction but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Because the endothelial surface layer, a meshwork of surface-bound and loosely adherent glycosaminoglycans and proteoglycans, modulates vascular function, its loss could contribute to both renal and systemic vascular dysfunction in proteinuric CKD. Using Munich-Wistar-Fromter (MWF) rats as a model of spontaneous albuminuric CKD, multiphoton fluorescence imaging and single-vessel physiology measurements revealed that old MWF rats exhibited widespread loss of the endothelial surface layer in parallel with defects in microvascular permeability to both water and albumin, in both continuous mesenteric microvessels and fenestrated glomerular microvessels. In contrast to young MWF rats, enzymatic disruption of the endothelial surface layer in old MWF rats resulted in neither additional loss of the layer nor additional changes in permeability. Intravenous injection of wheat germ agglutinin lectin and its adsorption onto the endothelial surface layer significantly improved glomerular albumin permeability. Taken together, these results suggest that widespread loss of the endothelial surface layer links albuminuric kidney disease with systemic vascular dysfunction, providing a potential therapeutic target for proteinuric kidney disease. PMID:22797190

High-Resolution Electron Energy Loss Studies of Oxygen, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Nitric Oxide, and Nitrous Oxide Adsorption on Germanium Surfaces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Entringer, Anthony G.

The first high resolution electron energy loss spectroscopy (HREELS) studies of the oxidation and nitridation of germanium surfaces are reported. Both single crystal Ge(111) and disordered surfaces were studied. Surfaces were exposed to H, O_2, NO, N _2O, and N, after cleaning in ultra-high vacuum. The Ge surfaces were found to be non-reactive to molecular hydrogen (H_2) at room temperature. Exposure to atomic hydrogen (H) resulted hydrogen adsorption as demonstrated by the presence of Ge-H vibrational modes. The HREEL spectrum of the native oxide of Ge characteristic of nu -GeO_2 was obtained by heating the oxide to 200^circC. Three peaks were observed at 33, 62, and 106 meV for molecular oxygen (O_2) adsorbed on clean Ge(111) at room temperature. These peaks are indicative of dissociative bonding and a dominant Ge-O-Ge bridge structure. Subsequent hydrogen exposure resulted in a shift of the Ge-H stretch from its isolated value of 247 meV to 267 meV, indicative of a dominant +3 oxidation state. A high density of dangling bonds and defects and deeper oxygen penetration at the amorphous Ge surface result in a dilute bridge structure with a predominant +1 oxidation state for similar exposures. Molecules of N_2O decompose at the surfaces to desorbed N_2 molecules and chemisorbed oxygen atoms. In contrast, both oxygen and nitrogen are detected at the surfaces following exposure to NO molecules. Both NO and N_2O appear to dissociate and bond at the top surface layer. Molecular nitrogen (N_2) does not react with the Ge surfaces, however, a precursor Ge nitride is observed at room temperature following exposure to nitrogen atoms and ions. Removal of oxygen by heating of the NO-exposed surface to 550^circC enabled the identification of the Ge-N vibrational modes. These modes show a structure similar to that of germanium nitride. This spectrum is also identical to that of the N-exposed surface heated to 550^circC. Surface phonon modes of the narrow-gap semiconducting compounds Mg _2Sn, Mg_2Ge and Mg _2Si were detected at 29, 32, and 40 meV, respectively. The native oxide of all three show a dominant Mg-O mode at 80 meV. Probable Sn-O, Ge-O, and Si-O modes are also identified. Complete removal of the oxide layer was accomplished only on the Mg_2 Si surface but resulted in no noticeable change in the energy of the surface phonon. Results are compared to the known bulk optical properties of these compounds.

Surface rupture of the 1933 M 7.5 Diexi earthquake in eastern Tibet: implications for seismogenic tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Junjie; Xu, Xiwei; Zhang, Shimin; Yeats, Robert S.; Chen, Jiawei; Zhu, Ailan; Liu, Shao

2018-03-01

The 1933 M 7.5 Diexi earthquake is another catastrophic event with the loss of over 10 000 lives in eastern Tibet comparable to the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Because of its unknown surface rupture, the seismogenic tectonics of the 1933 earthquake remains controversial. We collected unpublished reports, literatures and old photos associated with the 1933 earthquake and conducted field investigations based on high-resolution Google Earth imagery. Combined with palaeoseismological analysis, radiocarbon dating and relocated earthquakes, our results demonstrate that the source of the 1933 earthquake is the northwest-trending Songpinggou fault. This quake produced a > 30 km long normal-faulting surface rupture with the coseismic offset of 0.9-1.7 m. Its moment magnitude (Mw) is ˜6.8. The Songpinggou fault undergoes an average vertical slip rate of ˜0.25 mm yr-1 and has a recurrence interval of ˜6700 yr of large earthquakes. The normal-faulting surface rupture of this quake is probably the reactivation of the Mesozoic Jiaochang tectonic belt in gravitational adjustment of eastern Tibet. Besides the major boundary faults, minor structures within continental blocks may take a role in strain partitioning of eastern Tibet and have the potential of producing large earthquake. This study contributes to a full understanding of seismotectonics of large earthquakes and strain partitioning in eastern Tibet.

Spectroscopy and viability of Bacillus subtilis spores after ultraviolet irradiation: implications for the detection of potential bacterial life on Europa.

PubMed

Noell, Aaron C; Ely, Tucker; Bolser, Diana K; Darrach, Halley; Hodyss, Robert; Johnson, Paul V; Hein, Jeffrey D; Ponce, Adrian

2015-01-01

One of the most habitable environments in the Solar System outside of Earth may exist underneath the ice on Europa. In the near future, our best chance to look for chemical signatures of a habitable environment (or life itself) will likely be at the inhospitable icy surface. Therefore, it is important to understand the ability of organic signatures of life and life itself to persist under simulated europan surface conditions. Toward that end, this work examined the UV photolysis of Bacillus subtilis spores and their chemical marker dipicolinic acid (DPA) at temperatures and pressures relevant to Europa. In addition, inactivation curves for the spores at 100 K, 100 K covered in one micron of ice, and 298 K were measured to determine the probability for spore survival at the surface. Fourier transform infrared spectra of irradiated DPA showed a loss of carboxyl groups to CO2 as expected but unexpectedly showed significant opening of the heterocyclic ring, even for wavelengths>200 nm. Both DPA and B. subtilis spores showed identical unknown spectral bands of photoproducts after irradiation, further highlighting the importance of DPA in the photochemistry of spores. Spore survival was enhanced at 100 K by ∼5× relative to 298 K, but 99.9% of spores were still inactivated after the equivalent of ∼25 h of exposure on the europan surface.

Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Tyler L.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Rover, Jennifer R.; Koch, Joshua C.; Bertram, Mark R.

2015-01-01

Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

Surface states and annihilation characteristics of positrons trapped at the oxidized Cu(100) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazleev, N. G.; Weiss, A. H.

2013-06-01

In this work we present the results of theoretical studies of positron surface and bulk states and annihilation probabilities of surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons at the oxidized Cu(100) surface under conditions of high oxygen coverage. Oxidation of the Cu(100) surface has been studied by performing an ab-initio investigation of the stability and electronic structure of the Cu(100) missing row reconstructed surface at various on-surface and subsurface oxygen coverages ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 monolayers using density functional theory (DFT). All studied structures have been found to be energetically more favorable as compared to structures formed by purely on-surface oxygen adsorption. The observed decrease in the positron work function when oxygen atoms occupy on-surface and subsurface sites has been attributed to a significant charge redistribution within the first two layers, buckling effects within each layer and an interlayer expansion. The computed positron binding energy, positron surface state wave function, and annihilation probabilities of the surface trapped positrons with relevant core electrons demonstrate their sensitivity to oxygen coverage, atomic structure of the topmost layers of surfaces, and charge transfer effects. Theoretical results are compared with experimental data obtained from studies of oxidation of the Cu(100) surface using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES). The results presented provide an explanation for the changes observed in the probability of annihilation of surface trapped positrons with Cu 3p core-level electrons as a function of annealing temperature.

Oxygen atom reaction with shuttle materials at orbital altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leger, L. J.

1982-01-01

Surfaces of materials used in the space shuttle orbiter payload bay and exposed during STS-1 through STS-3 were examined after flight. Paints and polymers, in particular Kapton used on the television camera thermal blanket, showed significant change. Generally, the change was a loss of surface gloss on the polymer with apparent aging on the paint surfaces. The Kapton surfaces showed the greatest change, and postflight analyses showed mass loss of 4.8 percent on STS-2 and 35 percent on STS-3 for most heavily affected surfaces. Strong shadow patterns were evident. The greatest mass loss was measured on surfaces which were exposed to solar radiation in conjunction with exposure in the vehicle velocity vector. A mechanism which involves the interaction of atomic oxygen with organic polymer surfaces is proposed. Atomic oxygen is the major ambient species at low orbital altitudes and presents a flux of 8 x 10 to the 14th power atoms/cu cm sec for reaction. Correlation of the expected mass loss based on ground-based oxygen atom/polymer reaction rates shows lower mass loss of the Kapton than measured. Consideration of solar heating effects on reaction rates as well as the high oxygen atom energy due to the orbiter's orbital velocity brings the predicted and measured mass loss in surprisingly good agreement. Flight sample surface morphology comparison with ground based Kapton/oxygen atom exposures provides additional support for the oxygen interaction mechanism.

Gastric clearance of serum albumin in normal man and in certain gastroduodenal disorders

PubMed Central

Brassinne, A.

1974-01-01

Serum albumin gastric loss was estimated from the measurement of non-dialysable radioactivity of the gastric juice after intravenous injection of radioiodinated serum albumin (RISA). Immunochemical quantitation of serum albumin was performed in some of the samples. In the control group, the mean gastric clearance of albumin was 1·71 ml per hour with a range of 0·41 to 4·41 ml per hour. This represented a gastric loss of 1·9 gram of albumin per day and 11% of the daily degradation of albumin. There was no significant change in the gastric albumin loss after stimulating the gastric secretion. No significant difference in the gastric albumin leakage was found between normal subjects and patients with gastric or duodenal ulcer. In pernicious anaemia albumin loss into the stomach was greater (mean: 3·72 ml per hour; SD 1·52 ml) than in the normal group and accounted for the greater albumin fractional catabolic rate. This fact had never been proved before. In both patients with giant rugae of the gastric mucosa the gastric clearance of serum albumin was also increased. It is concluded first that albumin is not secreted by the chief and parietal cells of the mucosa and probably passes through the gastric wall between the cells of the mucosa, perhaps during the exfoliation of the surface epithelial cells, and secondly that the stomach is one of the sites of serum albumin breakdown, a fact that supports the view that the gastrointestinal tract plays a major role in the catabolism of serum albumin. PMID:4210183

Ab initio molecular dynamics calculations on scattering of hyperthermal H atoms from Cu(111) and Au(111).

PubMed

Kroes, Geert-Jan; Pavanello, Michele; Blanco-Rey, María; Alducin, Maite; Auerbach, Daniel J

2014-08-07

Energy loss from the translational motion of an atom or molecule impinging on a metal surface to the surface may determine whether the incident particle can trap on the surface, and whether it has enough energy left to react with another molecule present at the surface. Although this is relevant to heterogeneous catalysis, the relative extent to which energy loss of hot atoms takes place to phonons or electron-hole pair (ehp) excitation, and its dependence on the system's parameters, remain largely unknown. We address these questions for two systems that present an extreme case of the mass ratio of the incident atom to the surface atom, i.e., H + Cu(111) and H + Au(111), by presenting adiabatic ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) predictions of the energy loss and angular distributions for an incidence energy of 5 eV. The results are compared to the results of AIMDEFp calculations modeling energy loss to ehp excitation using an electronic friction ("EF") model applied to the AIMD trajectories, so that the energy loss to the electrons is calculated "post" ("p") the computation of the AIMD trajectory. The AIMD calculations predict average energy losses of 0.38 eV for Cu(111) and 0.13-0.14 eV for Au(111) for H-atoms that scatter from these surfaces without penetrating the surface. These energies closely correspond with energy losses predicted with Baule models, which is suggestive of structure scattering. The predicted adiabatic integral energy loss spectra (integrated over all final scattering angles) all display a lowest energy peak at an energy corresponding to approximately 80% of the average adiabatic energy loss for non-penetrative scattering. In the adiabatic limit, this suggests a way of determining the approximate average energy loss of non-penetratively scattered H-atoms from the integral energy loss spectrum of all scattered H-atoms. The AIMDEFp calculations predict that in each case the lowest energy loss peak should show additional energy loss in the range 0.2-0.3 eV due to ehp excitation, which should be possible to observe. The average non-adiabatic energy losses for non-penetrative scattering exceed the adiabatic losses to phonons by 0.9-1.0 eV. This suggests that for scattering of hyperthermal H-atoms from coinage metals the dominant energy dissipation channel should be to ehp excitation. These predictions can be tested by experiments that combine techniques for generating H-atom beams that are well resolved in translational energy and for detecting the scattered atoms with high energy-resolution.

Relationship of cariogenic bacteria levels with periodontal status and root surface caries in elderly Japanese.

PubMed

Saotome, Yasuhiko; Tada, Akio; Hanada, Nobuhiro; Yoshihara, Akihiro; Uematsu, Hiroshi; Miyazaki, Hideo; Senpuku, Hidenobu

2006-12-01

The relationship of the levels of cariogenic bacterial species with periodontal status and decayed root surfaces was investigated in elderly Japanese subjects. Three hundred and sixty-eight individuals (each 75 years old) were examined for periodontal status (pocket depth, attachment loss), root surface caries and salivary levels of mutans streptococci (MS) and lactobacilli (LB). Values >4 mm of attachment loss (rAL4) and for average attachment loss (aAL) of sites measured were significantly higher in subjects with LB than those without. Multiple regression analysis also showed a correlation between aAL and rAL4 values with the presence of LB (aAL p = 0.003; rAL4 p = 0.002). Further, multiple regression analysis of interacting factors regarding decayed root surfaces showed that LB carriers had a greater incidence of decayed root surface caries (p = 0.003), while MS and LB levels were correlated to the number of decayed root surfaces (LB p = 0.010; MS p = 0.026). Our results indicate that considerable attachment loss elevates the possibility of having LB, thus increasing the risk of root surface caries. It was also found that LB and MS measurements may be useful indicators of decayed root surfaces in elderly individuals with attachment loss.

Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

2014-05-01

Flooding is among the natural hazards that regularly cause significant losses to property and human lives. The assessment of flood risk delivers crucial information for all participants involved in flood risk management and especially for local authorities and insurance companies in order to estimate the possible flood losses. Therefore a framework for assessing flood risk has been developed and is introduced with the presented contribution. Flood risk is thereby defined as combination of the probability of flood events and of potential flood damages. The probability of occurrence is described through the spatial and temporal characterisation of flood. The potential flood damages are determined in the course of vulnerability assessment, whereas, the exposure and the vulnerability of the elements at risks are considered. Direct costs caused by flooding with the focus on residential building are analysed. The innovative part of this contribution lies on the development of a framework which takes the probability of flood events and their spatio-temporal characteristic into account. Usually the probability of flooding will be determined by means of recurrence intervals for an entire catchment without any spatial variation. This may lead to a misinterpretation of the flood risk. Within the presented framework the probabilistic flood risk assessment is based on analysis of a large number of spatial correlated flood events. Since the number of historic flood events is relatively small additional events have to be generated synthetically. This temporal extrapolation is realised by means of the method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004). It is used to generate a large number of possible spatial correlated flood events within a larger catchment. The approach is based on the modelling of multivariate extremes considering the spatial dependence structure of flood events. The input for this approach are time series derived from river gauging stations. In a next step the historic and synthetic flood events have to be spatially interpolated from point scale (i.e. river gauges) to the river network. Therefore, topological kriging (Top-kriging) proposed by Skøien et al. (2006) is applied. Top-kriging considers the nested structure of river networks and is therefore suitable to regionalise flood characteristics. Thus, the characteristics of a large number of possible flood events can be transferred to arbitrary locations (e.g. community level) at the river network within a study region. This framework has been used to generate a set of spatial correlated river flood events in the Austrian Federal Province of Vorarlberg. In addition, loss-probability-curves for each community has been calculated based on official inundation maps of public authorities, elements at risks and their vulnerability. One location along the river network within each community refers as interface between the set of flood events and the individual loss-probability relationships for the individual communities. Consequently, every flood event from the historic and synthetic generated dataset can be monetary evaluated. Thus, a time series comprising a large number of flood events and their corresponding monetary losses serves as basis for a probabilistic flood risk assessment. This includes expected annual losses and estimates of extreme event losses, which occur over the course of a certain time period. The gained results are essential decision-support for primary insurers, reinsurance companies and public authorities in order to setup a scale adequate risk management.

Filtration effects on ball bearing life and condition in a contaminated lubricant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loewenthal, S. H.; Moyer, D. W.

1978-01-01

Ball bearings were fatigue tested with a noncontaminated MIL-L-23699 lubricant and with a contaminated MIL-L-23699 lubricant under four levels of filtration. The test filters had absolute particle removal ratings of 3, 30, 49, and 105 microns. Aircraft turbine engine contaminants were injected into the filter's supply line at a constant rate of 125 milligrams per bearing hour. Bearing life and running track condition generally improved with finer filtration. The experimental lives of 3- and 30-micron filter bearings were statistically equivalent, approaching those obtained with the noncontaminated lubricant bearings. Compared to these bearings, the lives of the 49-micron bearings were statistically lower. The 105-micron bearings experienced gross wear. The degree of surface distress, weight loss, and probable failure mode were dependent on filtration level, with finer filtration being clearly beneficial.

The capacity credit of grid-connected photovoltaic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsema, E. A.; van Wijk, A. J. M.; Turkenburg, W. C.

The capacity credit due photovoltaic (PV) power plants if integrated into the Netherlands grid was investigated, together with an estimate of the total allowable penetration. An hourly simulation was performed based on meteorological data from five stations and considering tilted surfaces, the current grid load pattern, and the load pattern after PV-power augmentation. The reliability of the grid was assessed in terms of a loss of load probability analysis, assuming power drops were limited to 1 GW. A projected tolerance for 2.5 GW of PV power was calculated. Peak demands were determined to be highest in winter, contrary to highest insolation levels; however, daily insolation levels coincided with daily peak demands. Combining the PV input with an equal amount of wind turbine power production was found to augment the capacity credit for both at aggregate outputs of 2-4 GW.

Kinetics of Water Loss from Cells at Subzero Temperatures and the Likelihood of Intracellular Freezing

PubMed Central

Mazur, Peter

1963-01-01

The survival of various cells subjected to low temperature exposure is higher when they are cooled slowly. This increase is consistent with the view that slow cooling decreases the probability of intracellular freezing by permitting water to leave the cell rapidly enough to keep the protoplasm at its freezing point. The present study derives a quantitative relation between the amount of water in a cell and temperature. The relation is a differential equation involving cooling rate, surface-volume ratio, membrane permeability to water, and the temperature coefficient of the permeability constant. Numerical solutions to this equation give calculated water contents which permit predictions as to the likelihood of intracellular ice formation. Both the calculated water contents and the predictions on internal freezing are consistent with the experimental observations of several investigators. PMID:14085017

Runoff phosphorus losses as related to phosphorus source, application method, and application rate on a Piedmont soil.

PubMed

Tarkalson, David D; Mikkelsen, Robert L

2004-01-01

Land application of animal manures and fertilizers has resulted in an increased potential for excessive P losses in runoff to nutrient-sensitive surface waters. The purpose of this research was to measure P losses in runoff from a bare Piedmont soil in the southeastern United States receiving broiler litter or inorganic P fertilizer either incorporated or surface-applied at varying P application rates (inorganic P, 0-110 kg P ha(-1); broiler litter, 0-82 kg P ha(-1)). Rainfall simulation was applied at a rate of 76 mm h(-1). Runoff samples were collected at 5-min intervals for 30 min and analyzed for reactive phosphorus (RP), algal-available phosphorus (AAP), and total phosphorus (TP). Incorporation of both P sources resulted in P losses not significantly different than the unfertilized control at all application rates. Incorporation of broiler litter decreased flow-weighted concentration of RP in runoff by 97% and mass loss of TP in runoff by 88% compared with surface application. Surface application of broiler litter resulted in runoff containing between 2.3 and 21.8 mg RP L(-1) for application rates of 8 to 82 kg P ha(-1), respectively. Mass loss of TP in runoff from surface-applied broiler litter ranged from 1.3 to 8.5 kg P ha(-1) over the same application rates. Flow-weighted concentrations of RP and mass losses of TP in runoff were not related to application rate when inorganic P fertilizer was applied to the soil surface. Results for this study can be used by P loss assessment tools to fine-tune P source, application rate, and application method site factors, and to estimate extreme-case P loss from cropland receiving broiler litter and inorganic P fertilizers.

Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging to detect cartilage loss in severe osteoarthritis of the first carpometacarpal joint: comparison with histological evaluation.

PubMed

Saltzherr, Michael S; Coert, J Henk; Selles, Ruud W; van Neck, Johan W; Jaquet, Jean-Bart; van Osch, Gerjo J V M; Oei, Edwin H G; Luime, Jolanda J; Muradin, Galied S R

2017-03-14

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is increasingly used for research in hand osteoarthritis, but imaging the thin cartilage layers in the hand joints remains challenging. We therefore assessed the accuracy of MRI in detecting cartilage loss in patients with symptomatic osteoarthritis of the first carpometacarpal (CMC1) joint. Twelve patients scheduled for trapeziectomy to treat severe symptomatic osteoarthritis of the CMC1 joint underwent a preoperative high resolution 3D spoiled gradient (SPGR) MRI scan. Subsequently, the resected trapezium was evaluated histologically. The sections were scored for cartilage damage severity (Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) score), and extent of damage (percentage surface area). Each MRI scan was scored for the area of normal cartilage, partial cartilage loss and full cartilage loss. The percentages of the total surface area with any cartilage loss and full-thickness cartilage loss were calculated using MRI and histological evaluation. MRI and histological evaluation both identified large areas of overall cartilage loss. The median (IQR) surface area of any cartilage loss on MRI was 98% (82-100%), and on histological assessment 96% (87-98%). However, MRI underestimated the extent of full-thickness cartilage loss. The median (IQR) surface area of full-thickness cartilage loss on MRI was 43% (22-70%), and on histological evaluation 79% (67-85%). The difference was caused by a thin layer of high signal on the articulating surface, which was interpreted as damaged cartilage on MRI but which was not identified on histological evaluation. Three-dimensional SPGR MRI of the CMC1 joint demonstrates overall cartilage damage, but underestimates full-thickness cartilage loss in patients with advanced osteoarthritis.

[Characteristics of soil phosphorous loss under different ecological planting patterns in hilly red soil regions of southern Hunan Province, China].

PubMed

Yuan, Min; Wen, Shi-Lin; Xu, Ming-Gang; Dong, Chun-Hua; Qin, Lin; Zhang, Lu

2013-11-01

Taking a large standard runoff plot on a red soil slope in Qiyang County, southern Hunan Province as a case, this paper studied the surface soil phosphorus loss characteristics in the hilly red soil regions of southern Hunan under eight ecological planting patterns. The phosphorus loss from wasteland (T1) was most serious, followed by that from natural sloped cropping patterns (T2 and T3), while the phosphorus loss amount from terrace cropping patterns (T4-T8) was the least, only occupying 9.9%, 37%, 0.7%, 2.3%, and 1.9% of T1, respectively. The ecological planting patterns directly affected the forms of surface-lost soil phosphorus, with the particulate phosphorus (PP) as the main lost form. Under the condition of rainstorm (daily rainfall > 50 mm), rainfall had lesser effects on the phosphorus loss among different planting patterns. However, the phosphorus loss increased with increasing rain intensity. The surface soil phosphorus loss mainly occurred from June to September. Both the rainfall and the rain intensity were the factors directly affected the time distribution of surface soil phosphorus loss in hilly red soil regions of southern Hunan.

Problem of quality assurance during metal constructions welding via robotic technological complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fominykh, D. S.; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.

2018-05-01

The problem of minimizing the probability for critical combinations of events that lead to a loss in welding quality via robotic process automation is examined. The problem is formulated, models and algorithms for its solution are developed. The problem is solved by minimizing the criterion characterizing the losses caused by defective products. Solving the problem may enhance the quality and accuracy of operations performed and reduce the losses caused by defective product

Results from the Mayson Lake Hydrological Processes Study 2008 Summer Field Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlyle-Moses, D. E.; McKee, A. J.; Lishman, C. E.; Giesbrecht, W. J.; Kinniburgh, S. M.

2009-05-01

The Mayson Lake Hydrological Processes Study area is located in the southern interior of British Columbia ˜ 60 km NNW of the City of Kamloops, British Columbia on the Thompson-Bonaparte Plateau (51.2° N, 120.4° W; 1260 m a.m.s.l.). During the summer of 2008 a series of projects were carried out in preparation for a larger, more detailed study of the impact forest disturbance and subsequent re-growth has on hydrological processes. Results from the 2008 field season suggest that canopy interception loss of rainfall in a mixed lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Dougl.) - hybrid spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss. x engelmanni Perry x Engelm.) - subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) stand, where pines were at the grey - attack stage of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Scolytidae) infestation, is comparable to healthy mature stands, but significantly greater (α = 0.05) than that from the burned stand. Canopy interception loss, throughfall and stemflow for 14 events totalling 50.1 mm were found to be 41.2, 58.7, and 0.1 % of rainfall, respectively. Near-surface (surface to 20 cm depth) soil moisture depletion was determined using weekly TDR measurements at 32 points in each plot during a two-month dry- down period (June 16 -August 18) in which only 30.8 mm of rain fell. Soil depletion was found to be ˜ 2.6 times greater from juvenile stands than from a clear-cut, while in the beetle infested stands soil depletion averaged ˜ 1.6 times greater than in the clear-cut. Assuming no deep drainage past a depth of 20 cm or lateral throughflow out of the study plots, actual evapotranspiration (AET) was estimated at 53.2 ± 4.0 mm from the clear-cut during the dry-down period, while from two healthy juvenile stands AET was estimated at 87.1 ± 7.0 and 87.8 ± 4.0 mm. In two beetle infested forests AET during the dry-down period was estimated at 63.4 ± 5.0 and 69.8 ± 3.2 mm. The larger AET losses from the juvenile stands compared to the clear-cut is probably a consequence of transpiration from fast growing stocked pines, and, to a lesser extent canopy interception losses, while the greater AET from dead/declining forests compared to the clear cut is probably a result of relatively high interception losses from the forest canopy as well as transpiration from the understory. Stemflow, although negligible in the mature forest, was found to be an important point source of water from juvenile pine stands, especially for trees with basal diameters < 8 cm. These small trees had an average seasonal funneling ratio of 19.6 ± 6.6 (α = 0.05), while larger, put still healthy pines (ranging from 8.2 to 16.3 cm in diameter) had an average funneling ratio of 3.3 ± 2.2 (α = 0.05). The maximum funneling ratio observed during the study period was 79.7 (rainfall = 8.6 mm, tree basal diameter = 4.6 cm).

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

2018-05-01

Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris; Emanuel, Kerry

2011-05-15

Recent dramatic increases in damages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and improved understanding of TC physics have led DHS to fund research on intentional hurricane modification. We present a decision analytic assessment of whether it is potentially cost-effective to attempt to lower the wind speed of TCs approaching South Florida by reducing sea surface temperatures with wind-wave pumps. Using historical data on hurricanes approaching South Florida, we develop prior probabilities of how storms might evolve. The effects of modification are estimated using a modern TC model. The FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on the value of property at risk are used to estimate expected economic losses. We compare wind damages after storm modification with damages after implementing hardening strategies protecting buildings. We find that if it were feasible and properly implemented, modification could reduce net losses from an intense storm more than hardening structures. However, hardening provides "fail safe" protection for average storms that might not be achieved if the only option were modification. The effect of natural variability is larger than that of either strategy. Damage from storm surge is modest in the scenario studied but might be abated by modification.

Study on corrosion behaviors of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnets in different environmental conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. J.; Li, A. H.; Zhu, M. G.; Pan, W.; Li, W.

2011-04-01

Nd-Fe-B magnets have outstanding magnetic properties, but their corrosion resistance is poor because the rare-earth-rich phases in them are easily oxidized. In this article, we report an investigation of the corrosion behaviors of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnets with varied compositions in different corrosion conditions. The weight losses of the magnets after corrosion testing were measured after brushing off the corrosion products. The magnetic flux losses of the magnets were measured using a fluxmeter. A scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy dispersive x-ray analysis system was employed to observe the corrosion morphology. It was found that the humid-heat resistance of the magnets was obviously improved by partially substituting Dy for Nd and adding minor Co. The corrosion products and morphologies of Nd-Fe-B magnets for the autoclave test were different from those for the constant humid-heat test. The corrosion rates of the magnets for the former were much slower than for the latter; this is probably because the high-pressure steam led to an oxygen-deficient atmosphere, and the liquid film on the surface of the magnet specimens hindered the diffusion of oxygen into the bulk for the autoclave test.

Hot spot heat transfer - Its application to Venus and implications to Venus and earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, P.; Phillips, R. J.

1983-01-01

Using a model that gives a relationship between surface elevation, lithospheric thickness, and heat flux, the hot spot heat loss mechanism is tested for Venus. The mechanism is found to readily explain the predicted heat loss of the planet with a modest number of hot spots (of the order of 35). Lithospheric thickness variations can explain approximately 93 percent of the mapped topography of Venus. Above a radius of 6053 km, additional compensation is required, and this can be effected by incorporating a variable thickness crust into the model. If it is assumed that the crust is generated on the crests of the hot spots, probably by processes associated with volcanism, the model is consistent with nearly 99 percent of the mapped topography of Venus. In addition, the model is basically consistent with available gravity data and interpretations that suggest compensated topography and great depths of compensation (100-1000 km) for the midlatitudes of the planet. It is thought that the approximately 1 percent of the topography not explained by hot spot crustal generation is compensated at a shallower depth primarily by variations in crustal thickness that are not directly related to hot spot volcanism.

Aquatic adaptations in the nose of carnivorans: evidence from the turbinates

PubMed Central

Van Valkenburgh, Blaire; Curtis, Abigail; Samuels, Joshua X; Bird, Deborah; Fulkerson, Brian; Meachen-Samuels, Julie; Slater, Graham J

2011-01-01

Inside the mammalian nose lies a labyrinth of bony plates covered in epithelium collectively known as turbinates. Respiratory turbinates lie anteriorly and aid in heat and water conservation, while more posterior olfactory turbinates function in olfaction. Previous observations on a few carnivorans revealed that aquatic species have relatively large, complex respiratory turbinates and greatly reduced olfactory turbinates compared with terrestrial species. Body heat is lost more quickly in water than air and increased respiratory surface area likely evolved to minimize heat loss. At the same time, olfactory surface area probably diminished due to a decreased reliance on olfaction when foraging under water. To explore how widespread these adaptations are, we documented scaling of respiratory and olfactory turbinate surface area with body size in a variety of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine carnivorans, including pinnipeds, mustelids, ursids, and procyonids. Surface areas were estimated from high-resolution CT scans of dry skulls, a novel approach that enabled a greater sampling of taxa than is practical with fresh heads. Total turbinate, respiratory, and olfactory surface areas correlate well with body size (r2 ≥ 0.7), and are relatively smaller in larger species. Relative to body mass or skull length, aquatic species have significantly less olfactory surface area than terrestrial species. Furthermore, the ratio of olfactory to respiratory surface area is associated with habitat. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we found strong support for convergence on 1 : 3 proportions in aquatic taxa and near the inverse in terrestrial taxa, indicating that aquatic mustelids and pinnipeds independently acquired similar proportions of olfactory to respiratory turbinates. Constraints on turbinate surface area in the nasal chamber may result in a trade-off between respiratory and olfactory function in aquatic mammals. PMID:21198587

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Bigler, Mark; Rogers, James H.

2014-01-01

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These risk assessments typically cover the concept phase of a DRM, i.e. when little more than a general idea of the mission is known and are used to help establish "best estimates" for proposed program and agency level risk requirements. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Bigler, Mark; Rogers, James H.

2015-01-01

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These risk assessments typically cover the concept phase of a DRM, i.e. when little more than a general idea of the mission is known and are used to help establish "best estimates" for proposed program and agency level risk requirements. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

HCl dissociating on a rigid Au(111) surface: A six-dimensional quantum mechanical study on a new potential energy surface based on the RPBE functional.

PubMed

Liu, Tianhui; Fu, Bina; Zhang, Dong H

2017-04-28

The dissociative chemisorption of HCl on the Au(111) surface has recently been an interesting and important subject, regarding the discrepancy between the theoretical dissociation probabilities and the experimental sticking probabilities. We here constructed an accurate full-dimensional (six-dimensional (6D)) potential energy surface (PES) based on the density functional theory (DFT) with the revised Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (RPBE) functional, and performed 6D quantum mechanical (QM) calculations for HCl dissociating on a rigid Au(111) surface. The effects of vibrational excitations, rotational orientations, and site-averaging approximation on the present RPBE PES are investigated. Due to the much higher barrier height obtained on the RPBE PES than on the PW91 PES, the agreement between the present theoretical and experimental results is greatly improved. In particular, at the very low kinetic energy, the QM-RPBE dissociation probability agrees well with the experimental data. However, the computed QM-RPBE reaction probabilities are still markedly different from the experimental values at most of the energy regions. In addition, the QM-RPBE results achieve good agreement with the recent ab initio molecular dynamics calculations based on the RPBE functional at high kinetic energies.

Six-dimensional quantum dynamics study for the dissociative adsorption of HCl on Au(111) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tianhui; Fu, Bina; Zhang, Dong H.

2013-11-01

The six-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations for the dissociative chemisorption of HCl on Au(111) are carried out using the time-dependent wave-packet approach, based on an accurate PES which was recently developed by neural network fitting to density functional theory energy points. The influence of vibrational excitation and rotational orientation of HCl on the reactivity is investigated by calculating the exact six-dimensional dissociation probabilities, as well as the four-dimensional fixed-site dissociation probabilities. The vibrational excitation of HCl enhances the reactivity and the helicopter orientation yields higher dissociation probability than the cartwheel orientation. A new interesting site-averaged effect is found for the title molecule-surface system that one can essentially reproduce the six-dimensional dissociation probability by averaging the four-dimensional dissociation probabilities over 25 fixed sites.

A risk-based multi-objective model for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naserizade, Sareh S.; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Montaseri, Hossein

2018-02-01

In this study, a new stochastic model based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and multi-objective optimization methods is developed for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system (WDS). This model determines minimization of risk which is caused by simultaneous multi-point contamination injection in WDS using CVaR approach. The CVaR considers uncertainties of contamination injection in the form of probability distribution function and calculates low-probability extreme events. In this approach, extreme losses occur at tail of the losses distribution function. Four-objective optimization model based on NSGA-II algorithm is developed to minimize losses of contamination injection (through CVaR of affected population and detection time) and also minimize the two other main criteria of optimal placement of sensors including probability of undetected events and cost. Finally, to determine the best solution, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), as a subgroup of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach, is utilized to rank the alternatives on the trade-off curve among objective functions. Also, sensitivity analysis is done to investigate the importance of each criterion on PROMETHEE results considering three relative weighting scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is examined through applying it to Lamerd WDS in the southwestern part of Iran. The PROMETHEE suggests 6 sensors with suitable distribution that approximately cover all regions of WDS. Optimal values related to CVaR of affected population and detection time as well as probability of undetected events for the best optimal solution are equal to 17,055 persons, 31 mins and 0.045%, respectively. The obtained results of the proposed methodology in Lamerd WDS show applicability of CVaR-based multi-objective simulation-optimization model for incorporating the main uncertainties of contamination injection in order to evaluate extreme value of losses in WDS.

Framing From Experience: Cognitive Processes and Predictions of Risky Choice.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Cleotilde; Mehlhorn, Katja

2016-07-01

A framing bias shows risk aversion in problems framed as "gains" and risk seeking in problems framed as "losses," even when these are objectively equivalent and probabilities and outcomes values are explicitly provided. We test this framing bias in situations where decision makers rely on their own experience, sampling the problem's options (safe and risky) and seeing the outcomes before making a choice. In Experiment 1, we replicate the framing bias in description-based decisions and find risk indifference in gains and losses in experience-based decisions. Predictions of an Instance-Based Learning model suggest that objective probabilities as well as the number of samples taken are factors that contribute to the lack of framing effect. We test these two factors in Experiment 2 and find no framing effect when a few samples are taken but when large samples are taken, the framing effect appears regardless of the objective probability values. Implications of behavioral results and cognitive modeling are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Grading the probabilities of credit default risk for Malaysian listed companies by using the KMV-Merton model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anuwar, Muhammad Hafidz; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2017-08-01

This paper provides an overview for the assessment of credit risk specific to the banks. In finance, risk is a term to reflect the potential of financial loss. The risk of default on loan may increase when a company does not make a payment on that loan when the time comes. Hence, this framework analyses the KMV-Merton model to estimate the probabilities of default for Malaysian listed companies. In this way, banks can verify the ability of companies to meet their loan commitments in order to overcome bad investments and financial losses. This model has been applied to all Malaysian listed companies in Bursa Malaysia for estimating the credit default probabilities of companies and compare with the rating given by the rating agency, which is RAM Holdings Berhad to conform to reality. Then, the significance of this study is a credit risk grade is proposed by using the KMV-Merton model for the Malaysian listed companies.

Syncope or seizure? The diagnostic value of the EEG and hyperventilation test in transient loss of consciousness.

PubMed Central

Hoefnagels, W A; Padberg, G W; Overweg, J; Roos, R A; van Dijk, J G; Kamphuisen, H A

1991-01-01

In a prospective study of consecutive patients (age 15 or over) with transient loss of consciousness 45 patients had a history of seizure and 74 patients had a history of syncope. All patients had an EEG, ECG, laboratory tests and a hyperventilation test and were followed for an average of 14.5 months. Epileptiform activity in the interictal EEG had a sensitivity of 0.40 and a specificity of 0.95 for the diagnosis of a seizure. Epileptiform activity nearly doubled the probability of a seizure in doubtful cases. If no epileptiform activity was found, this probability remained substantially the same. The hyperventilation test had a sensitivity of 0.57 and a specificity of 0.84 for the diagnosis of syncope. A positive test increased the probability of syncope half as much in doubtful cases. A negative test did not exclude syncope. Laboratory tests were not helpful except for an ECG which was helpful in elderly patients. PMID:1800665

Statistical fluctuations of an ocean surface inferred from shoes and ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerche, Ian; Maubeuge, Frédéric

1995-12-01

This paper shows that it is possible to roughly estimate some ocean properties using simple time-dependent statistical models of ocean fluctuations. Based on a real incident, the loss by a vessel of a Nike shoes container in the North Pacific Ocean, a statistical model was tested on data sets consisting of the Nike shoes found by beachcombers a few months later. This statistical treatment of the shoes' motion allows one to infer velocity trends of the Pacific Ocean, together with their fluctuation strengths. The idea is to suppose that there is a mean bulk flow speed that can depend on location on the ocean surface and time. The fluctuations of the surface flow speed are then treated as statistically random. The distribution of shoes is described in space and time using Markov probability processes related to the mean and fluctuating ocean properties. The aim of the exercise is to provide some of the properties of the Pacific Ocean that are otherwise calculated using a sophisticated numerical model, OSCURS, where numerous data are needed. Relevant quantities are sharply estimated, which can be useful to (1) constrain output results from OSCURS computations, and (2) elucidate the behavior patterns of ocean flow characteristics on long time scales.

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, A.; Finney, M.

2009-04-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to manage fires for fuel reduction. The average BP was calculated for these scenarios to examine variation within and among a number of key designated management units, including forest-urban interface, conservation areas, protected species habitat, municipal watersheds, recreation areas, and others. To quantify risk, we developed a number of loss-benefit functions using fire effects models that relate fire intensity to tree mortality and biomass consumption. We used these relationships to measure the change in highly-valued old forest, designated wildlife conservation areas, aboveground carbon, surface fuels, and other wildland values. The loss-benefit functions were then coupled with BP's for different intensity classes to estimate expected value change (risk) for each pixel. For a subset of the study area we also measured the change in risk from fuels management for selected resources. Estimates of BP, excluding non burnable fuels (water, rock), fro the simulations ranged from 0.00001 to 0.026 within the study area, with a mean value of 0.007. In comparison, the annual burn probability estimated from fire occurrence data within the study area (1910 - 2003) was 0.0022. The estimate from simulations represents the average probability of a random pixel burning from a single large fire that escapes suppression, hence some difference is expected. Variation in BP among designated conservation and fire protection units was relatively large and illustrated spatial differences in wildfire likelihood among highly values resources. For instance, among the 130 different forest-urban interface areas, average BP varied from 0.0001 to 0.02. Average BP for nesting sites used by the endangered Northern spotted owl averaged 0.04 and varied from 0.001 to 0.01. The marginal BP's for high fire intensities was higher for many of the conservation areas compared the surrounding managed forest. Conservation areas that were located on the lee side of non-burnable fuels such as lava flows and lakes showed markedly reduced BP. When wildfire probabilities were combined with habitat loss functions for the Northern spotted owl, we observed expected loss from a random wildfire event ranging from 0.0 to 9.4% with a mean value of 1.5%. Expected loss was strongly correlated with BP for owl habitat, apparently because fires at very low intensities caused understory mortality and reduced stand canopy closure below minimum levels. The effect of simulating strategic fuel treatments on a subunit of the area resulted in significant decrease in expected loss of owl habitat. The effect of changing weather from a severe to mild (97th to 70th) percentile weather resulted in a dramatic 8-fold drop in BP and reduced the average wildfire size. However, the reduction was not uniform with the departures well correlated with specific fuel models. In total, this work demonstrated the application of wildfire spread models to quantitative risk assessment for fuels management on federally-managed lands in the U.S. The analyses revealed spatial variation in BP that is useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and guiding other wildfire mitigation activities. The work also illuminated the conflict between biodiversity conservation efforts on federally-managed lands and the high wildfire risk on fire-prone landscapes.

An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

1980-01-01

Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

Threatened species and the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity: conservation scenarios based on estimated extinction probabilities and phylogenetic risk analysis.

PubMed

Faith, Daniel P

2008-12-01

New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst-case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single-species assessment that is well-integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.

HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS OF ACTIVE ASTEROID 324P/La SAGRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jewitt, David; Li, Jing; Agarwal, Jessica

Hubble Space Telescope observations of active asteroid 324P/La Sagra near perihelion show continued mass loss consistent with the sublimation of near-surface ice. Isophotes of the coma measured from a vantage point below the orbital plane are best matched by steady emission of particles having a nominal size  of  a  ∼ 100 μ m. The inferred rate of mass loss, dM{sub d} / dt  ∼ 0.2 kg s{sup −1}, can be supplied by sublimation of water ice in thermal equilibrium with sunlight from an area as small as 930 m{sup 2}, corresponding to about 0.2% of the nucleus surface. Observations taken from amore » vantage point only 0.°6 from the orbital plane of 324P set a limit to the velocity of ejection of dust in the direction perpendicular to the plane, V {sub ⊥} < 1 m s{sup −1}. Short-term photometric variations of the near-nucleus region, if related to rotation of the underlying nucleus, rule-out periods ≤3.8 hr and suggest that rotation probably does not play a central role in driving the observed mass loss. We estimate that, in the previous orbit, 324P lost about 4 × 10{sup 7} kg in dust particles, corresponding to 6 × 10{sup −5} of the mass of a 550 m spherical nucleus of assumed density ρ  = 1000 kg m{sup −3}. If continued, mass loss at this rate would limit the lifetime of 324P to ∼1.6 × 10{sup 4} orbits (about 10{sup 5} years). To survive for the 100–400 Myr timescales corresponding to dynamical and collisional stability requires a duty cycle of 2 × 10{sup −4} ≤  f{sub d}  ≤ 8 × 10{sup −4}. Unless its time in orbit is overestimated by many orders of magnitude, 324P is revealed as a briefly active member of a vast population of otherwise dormant ice-containing asteroids.« less

Theoretical studies of positron states and annihilation characteristics at the oxidized Cu(100) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazleev, N. G.; Weiss, A. H.

2013-04-01

In this work we present the results of theoretical studies of positron surface and bulk states and annihilation probabilities of surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons at the oxidized Cu(100) surface under conditions of high oxygen coverage. An ab-initio study of the electronic properties of the Cu(100) missing row reconstructed surface at various on surface and sub-surface oxygen coverages has been performed on the basis of the density functional theory (DFT) using the Dmol3 code and the generalized gradient approximation (GGA). Surface structures in calculations have been constructed by adding oxygen atoms to various surface hollow and sub-surface octahedral sites of the 0.5 monolayer (ML) missing row reconstructed phase of the Cu(100) surface with oxygen coverages ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 ML. The charge redistribution at the surface and variations in atomic structure and chemical composition of the topmost layers associated with oxidation and surface reconstruction have been found to affect the spatial extent and localization of the positron surface state wave function and annihilation probabilities of surface trapped positrons with relevant core electrons. Theoretical results are compared with experimental data obtained from studies of oxidation of the Cu(100) surface using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES). It has been shown that positron annihilation probabilities with Cu 3s and 3p core electrons decrease when total (on-surface and sub-surface) oxygen coverage of the Cu(100) surface increases up to 1 ML. The calculations show that for high oxygen coverage when total oxygen coverage is 1. 5 ML the positron is not bound to the surface.

Theoretical studies of positron states and annihilation characteristics at the oxidized Cu(100) surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fazleev, N. G.; Weiss, A. H.

2013-04-19

In this work we present the results of theoretical studies of positron surface and bulk states and annihilation probabilities of surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons at the oxidized Cu(100) surface under conditions of high oxygen coverage. An ab-initio study of the electronic properties of the Cu(100) missing row reconstructed surface at various on surface and sub-surface oxygen coverages has been performed on the basis of the density functional theory (DFT) using the Dmol3 code and the generalized gradient approximation (GGA). Surface structures in calculations have been constructed by adding oxygen atoms to various surface hollow and sub-surface octahedral sitesmore » of the 0.5 monolayer (ML) missing row reconstructed phase of the Cu(100) surface with oxygen coverages ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 ML. The charge redistribution at the surface and variations in atomic structure and chemical composition of the topmost layers associated with oxidation and surface reconstruction have been found to affect the spatial extent and localization of the positron surface state wave function and annihilation probabilities of surface trapped positrons with relevant core electrons. Theoretical results are compared with experimental data obtained from studies of oxidation of the Cu(100) surface using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES). It has been shown that positron annihilation probabilities with Cu 3s and 3p core electrons decrease when total (on-surface and sub-surface) oxygen coverage of the Cu(100) surface increases up to 1 ML. The calculations show that for high oxygen coverage when total oxygen coverage is 1. 5 ML the positron is not bound to the surface.« less

Numerical study of the influence of surface reaction probabilities on reactive species in an rf atmospheric pressure plasma containing humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Sandra; Gibson, Andrew R.; Kushner, Mark J.; Gans, Timo; O'Connell, Deborah

2018-01-01

The quantification and control of reactive species (RS) in atmospheric pressure plasmas (APPs) is of great interest for their technological applications, in particular in biomedicine. Of key importance in simulating the densities of these species are fundamental data on their production and destruction. In particular, data concerning particle-surface reaction probabilities in APPs are scarce, with most of these probabilities measured in low-pressure systems. In this work, the role of surface reaction probabilities, γ, of reactive neutral species (H, O and OH) on neutral particle densities in a He-H2O radio-frequency micro APP jet (COST-μ APPJ) are investigated using a global model. It is found that the choice of γ, particularly for low-mass species having large diffusivities, such as H, can change computed species densities significantly. The importance of γ even at elevated pressures offers potential for tailoring the RS composition of atmospheric pressure microplasmas by choosing different wall materials or plasma geometries.

[Conditional probability analysis between tinnitus and comorbidities in patients attending the National Rehabilitation Institute-LGII in the period 2012-2013].

PubMed

Gómez Toledo, Verónica; Gutiérrez Farfán, Ileana; Verduzco-Mendoza, Antonio; Arch-Tirado, Emilio

Tinnitus is defined as the conscious perception of a sensation of sound that occurs in the absence of an external stimulus. This audiological symptom affects 7% to 19% of the adult population. The aim of this study is to describe the associated comorbidities present in patients with tinnitus usingjoint and conditional probability analysis. Patients of both genders, diagnosed with unilateral or bilateral tinnitus, aged between 20 and 45 years, and had a full computerised medical record, were selected. Study groups were formed on the basis of the following clinical aspects: 1) audiological findings; 2) vestibular findings; 3) comorbidities such as, temporomandibular dysfunction, tubal dysfunction, otosclerosis and, 4) triggering factors of tinnitus noise exposure, respiratory tract infection, use of ototoxic and/or drugs. Of the patients with tinnitus, 27 (65%) reported hearing loss, 11 (26.19%) temporomandibular dysfunction, and 11 (26.19%) with vestibular disorders. When performing the joint probability analysis, it was found that the probability that a patient with tinnitus having hearing loss was 2742 0.65, and 2042 0.47 for bilateral type. The result for P (A ∩ B)=30%. Bayes' theorem P (AiB) = P(Ai∩B)P(B) was used, and various probabilities were calculated. Therefore, in patients with temporomandibulardysfunction and vestibular disorders, a posterior probability of P (Aі/B)=31.44% was calculated. Consideration should be given to the joint and conditional probability approach as tools for the study of different pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Secondary stressors are associated with probable psychological morbidity after flooding: a cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Tempest, Elizabeth L; Carter, Ben; Beck, Charles R; Rubin, G James

2017-12-01

The impact of flooding on mental health is exacerbated due to secondary stressors, although the mechanism of action is not understood. We investigated the role of secondary stressors on psychological outcomes through analysis of data collected one-year after flooding, and effect modification by sex. We analysed data from the English National Study on Flooding and Health collected from households flooded, disrupted and unexposed to flooding during 2013-14. Psychological outcomes were probable depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to determine the effect of secondary stressors on the psychological outcomes. Sex was tested as an effect modifier using subgroup analyses. A total of 2006 people participated (55.5% women, mean age 60 years old). Participants reporting concerns about their personal health and that of their family (concerns about health) had greater odds of probable depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.17-2.65) and PTSD (aOR 2.58, 95% CI 1.82-3.66). Loss of items of sentimental value was associated with probable anxiety (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.26-2.62). For women, the strongest associations were between concerns about health and probable PTSD (aOR 2.86, 95% CI 1.79-4.57). For men, the strongest associations were between 'relationship problems' and probable depression (aOR 3.25, 95% CI 1.54-6.85). Concerns about health, problems with relationships and loss of sentimental items were consistently associated with poor psychological outcomes. Interventions to reduce the occurrence of these secondary stressors are needed to mitigate the impact of flooding on probable psychological morbidity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

Secondary stressors are associated with probable psychological morbidity after flooding: a cross-sectional analysis

PubMed Central

Tempest, Elizabeth L.; Carter, Ben; Beck, Charles R.; Rubin, G. James

2017-01-01

Abstract Background The impact of flooding on mental health is exacerbated due to secondary stressors, although the mechanism of action is not understood. We investigated the role of secondary stressors on psychological outcomes through analysis of data collected one-year after flooding, and effect modification by sex. Methods We analysed data from the English National Study on Flooding and Health collected from households flooded, disrupted and unexposed to flooding during 2013–14. Psychological outcomes were probable depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to determine the effect of secondary stressors on the psychological outcomes. Sex was tested as an effect modifier using subgroup analyses. Results A total of 2006 people participated (55.5% women, mean age 60 years old). Participants reporting concerns about their personal health and that of their family (concerns about health) had greater odds of probable depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.17–2.65) and PTSD (aOR 2.58, 95% CI 1.82–3.66). Loss of items of sentimental value was associated with probable anxiety (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.26–2.62). For women, the strongest associations were between concerns about health and probable PTSD (aOR 2.86, 95% CI 1.79–4.57). For men, the strongest associations were between ‘relationship problems’ and probable depression (aOR 3.25, 95% CI 1.54–6.85). Conclusions Concerns about health, problems with relationships and loss of sentimental items were consistently associated with poor psychological outcomes. Interventions to reduce the occurrence of these secondary stressors are needed to mitigate the impact of flooding on probable psychological morbidity. PMID:29087460

Grass mulching effect on infiltration, surface runoff and soil loss of three agricultural soils in Nigeria.

PubMed

Adekalu, K O; Olorunfemi, I A; Osunbitan, J A

2007-03-01

Mulching the soil surface with a layer of plant residue is an effective method of conserving water and soil because it reduces surface runoff, increases infiltration of water into the soil and retard soil erosion. The effectiveness of using elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum) as mulching material was evaluated in the laboratory using a rainfall simulator set at rainfall intensities typical of the tropics. Six soil samples, two from each of the three major soil series representing the main agricultural soils in South Western Nigeria were collected, placed on three different slopes, and mulched with different rates of the grass. The surface runoff, soil loss, and apparent cumulative infiltration were then measured under each condition. The results with elephant grass compared favorably with results from previous experiments using rice straw. Runoff and soil loss decreased with the amount of mulch used and increased with slope. Surface runoff, infiltration and soil loss had high correlations (R = 0.90, 0.89, and 0.86, respectively) with slope and mulch cover using surface response analysis. The mean surface runoff was correlated negatively with sand content, while mean soil loss was correlated positively with colloidal content (clay and organic matter) of the soil. Infiltration was increased and soil loss was reduced greatly with the highest cover. Mulching the soils with elephant grass residue may benefit late cropping (second cropping) by increasing stored soil water for use during dry weather and help to reduce erosion on sloping land.

[Reversible damages: loss of chance].

PubMed

Béry, Alain

2013-03-01

Chance is the probability that a particular event may or may not occur and, in this sense, a loss of chance∗∗ can be defined as the missed opportunities resulting from the loss of the possibility that a favorable event will occur (a contrario, the failure to take risks)∗∗∗. This is a self-imposed liability that should be distinguished from the final damage. Moral damage is a notion that is very close to loss of chance although it is based on indemnification from the final damage of an affliction or malady. © EDP Sciences, SFODF, 2013.

Calculation of Cumulative Distributions and Detection Probabilities in Communications and Optics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-01

the CMLD . As an example of a particular result, Figure 8.1 shows the additional SNR required (often called the CFAR loss) for the MLD, CMLD , and OSD in...the background noise level is known. Notice that although the CFAR loss increases with INR for the MLD, the CMLD and OSD have a bounded loss as the INR...Radar Detectors (J. A. Ritcey) Mean-level detectors (MLD) are commonly used in radar to maintain a constant -*! false-alarm rate ( CFAR ) when the

Calculation of Cumulative Distributions and Detection Probabilities in Communications and Optics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-03-31

result, Figure 3.1 shows the additional SNR required (often called the CFAR loss) for the MLD, CMLD , and OSD in a multiple target environment to...Notice that although the CFAR loss increases with INR for the MLD, the CMLD and OSD have a bounded loss as the INR + w. These results have been more...false-alarm rate ( CFAR ) when the background noise level is unknown. In Section 2 we described the application of saddlepoint integration techniques to

Plant Surfaces: Structures and Functions for Biomimetic Innovations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthlott, Wilhelm; Mail, Matthias; Bhushan, Bharat; Koch, Kerstin

2017-04-01

An overview of plant surface structures and their evolution is presented. It combines surface chemistry and architecture with their functions and refers to possible biomimetic applications. Within some 3.5 billion years biological species evolved highly complex multifunctional surfaces for interacting with their environments: some 10 million living prototypes (i.e., estimated number of existing plants and animals) for engineers. The complexity of the hierarchical structures and their functionality in biological organisms surpasses all abiotic natural surfaces: even superhydrophobicity is restricted in nature to living organisms and was probably a key evolutionary step with the invasion of terrestrial habitats some 350-450 million years ago in plants and insects. Special attention should be paid to the fact that global environmental change implies a dramatic loss of species and with it the biological role models. Plants, the dominating group of organisms on our planet, are sessile organisms with large multifunctional surfaces and thus exhibit particular intriguing features. Superhydrophilicity and superhydrophobicity are focal points in this work. We estimate that superhydrophobic plant leaves (e.g., grasses) comprise in total an area of around 250 million km2, which is about 50% of the total surface of our planet. A survey of structures and functions based on own examinations of almost 20,000 species is provided, for further references we refer to Barthlott et al. (Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 374: 20160191, 1). A basic difference exists between aquatic non-vascular and land-living vascular plants; the latter exhibit a particular intriguing surface chemistry and architecture. The diversity of features is described in detail according to their hierarchical structural order. The first underlying and essential feature is the polymer cuticle superimposed by epicuticular wax and the curvature of single cells up to complex multicellular structures. A descriptive terminology for this diversity is provided. Simplified, the functions of plant surface characteristics may be grouped into six categories: (1) mechanical properties, (2) influence on reflection and absorption of spectral radiation, (3) reduction of water loss or increase of water uptake, moisture harvesting, (4) adhesion and non-adhesion (lotus effect, insect trapping), (5) drag and turbulence increase, or (6) air retention under water for drag reduction or gas exchange (Salvinia effect). This list is far from complete. A short overview of the history of bionics and the impressive spectrum of existing and anticipated biomimetic applications are provided. The major challenge for engineers and materials scientists, the durability of the fragile nanocoatings, is also discussed.

MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AND VICINITY, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, George L.; Patten, Lowell L.

1984-01-01

Several areas of metallic and nonmetallic mineralization have been identified from surface occurrences within the Mount Zirkel Wilderness and vicinity, Colorado. Three areas of probable copper-lead-zinc-silver-gold resource potential, two areas of probable chrome-platinum resource potential, four areas of probable uranium-thorium resource potential, two areas of probable molybdenum resource potential, and one area of probable fluorspar potential were identified. No potential for fossil fuel or geothermal resources was identified.

Water resources of the Prairie Island Indian Reservation, Minnesota, 1994-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowdery, Timothy K.

1999-01-01

The only surface-water constituents exceeding U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water standards was coliform or fecal streptococci bacteria, which was exceeded in all samples. Thirteen percent of ground-water samples exceeded the nitrate maximum contaminant level (MCL), but this is probably higher than the percentage of the aquifer exceeding the nitrate MCL because most of the wells sampled were shallow. Surface-water recharge to and ground-water discharge from the surficial aquifer influence the water quality in both the aquifer and the surrounding surface water. However, surface water probably influences ground-water quality more because of the greater amount of surface water flowing through the study area.

Exit Presentation Fall 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Qi Rong

2014-01-01

Our current International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ISS PRA) model assumes all collisions between a visiting vehicle (VV) and the ISS result in worst case loss of the ISS crew and the vehicle (LOCV). Drawing results from the Mir-Progress collision, we know this assumption is inaccurate because that collision did not lead to LOCV. Therefore the PRA team is conducting a study to determine the likelihood of LOCV when a collision occurs between a VV and the ISS. Kinetic energy is calculated and converted to pounds of TNT for the moving VVs when they collide with the ISS. Different scenarios are evaluated to obtain collision related data such as translational kinetic energy and rotational kinetic energy. These calculated data are integrated into the results from the expert elicitation performed on the Mir- Progress collision. As a result of this study, the PRA model will now calculate the probability of a VV collision with ISS, the probability that collision will result in Loss of Soyuz Crew (LOC) or Loss of ISS Crew and Vehicle (LOCV).

A chemodynamic approach for estimating losses of target organic chemicals from water during sample holding time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capel, P.D.; Larson, S.J.

1995-01-01

Minimizing the loss of target organic chemicals from environmental water samples between the time of sample collection and isolation is important to the integrity of an investigation. During this sample holding time, there is a potential for analyte loss through volatilization from the water to the headspace, sorption to the walls and cap of the sample bottle; and transformation through biotic and/or abiotic reactions. This paper presents a chemodynamic-based, generalized approach to estimate the most probable loss processes for individual target organic chemicals. The basic premise is that the investigator must know which loss process(es) are important for a particular analyte, based on its chemodynamic properties, when choosing the appropriate method(s) to prevent loss.

Ab initio molecular dynamics calculations on scattering of hyperthermal H atoms from Cu(111) and Au(111)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroes, Geert-Jan, E-mail: g.j.kroes@chem.leidenuniv.nl; Pavanello, Michele; Blanco-Rey, María

2014-08-07

Energy loss from the translational motion of an atom or molecule impinging on a metal surface to the surface may determine whether the incident particle can trap on the surface, and whether it has enough energy left to react with another molecule present at the surface. Although this is relevant to heterogeneous catalysis, the relative extent to which energy loss of hot atoms takes place to phonons or electron-hole pair (ehp) excitation, and its dependence on the system's parameters, remain largely unknown. We address these questions for two systems that present an extreme case of the mass ratio of themore » incident atom to the surface atom, i.e., H + Cu(111) and H + Au(111), by presenting adiabatic ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) predictions of the energy loss and angular distributions for an incidence energy of 5 eV. The results are compared to the results of AIMDEFp calculations modeling energy loss to ehp excitation using an electronic friction (“EF”) model applied to the AIMD trajectories, so that the energy loss to the electrons is calculated “post” (“p”) the computation of the AIMD trajectory. The AIMD calculations predict average energy losses of 0.38 eV for Cu(111) and 0.13-0.14 eV for Au(111) for H-atoms that scatter from these surfaces without penetrating the surface. These energies closely correspond with energy losses predicted with Baule models, which is suggestive of structure scattering. The predicted adiabatic integral energy loss spectra (integrated over all final scattering angles) all display a lowest energy peak at an energy corresponding to approximately 80% of the average adiabatic energy loss for non-penetrative scattering. In the adiabatic limit, this suggests a way of determining the approximate average energy loss of non-penetratively scattered H-atoms from the integral energy loss spectrum of all scattered H-atoms. The AIMDEFp calculations predict that in each case the lowest energy loss peak should show additional energy loss in the range 0.2-0.3 eV due to ehp excitation, which should be possible to observe. The average non-adiabatic energy losses for non-penetrative scattering exceed the adiabatic losses to phonons by 0.9-1.0 eV. This suggests that for scattering of hyperthermal H-atoms from coinage metals the dominant energy dissipation channel should be to ehp excitation. These predictions can be tested by experiments that combine techniques for generating H-atom beams that are well resolved in translational energy and for detecting the scattered atoms with high energy-resolution.« less

Radiographic evaluation of marginal bone level around implants with different neck designs after 1 year.

PubMed

Shin, Young-Kyu; Han, Chong-Hyun; Heo, Seong-Joo; Kim, Sunjai; Chun, Heoung-Jae

2006-01-01

To evaluate the influence of macro- and microstructure of the implant surface at the marginal bone level after functional loading. Sixty-eight patients were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups. The first group received 35 implants with a machined neck (Ankylos); the second group, 34 implants with a rough-surfaced neck (Stage 1); and the third, 38 implants with a rough-surfaced neck with microthreads (Oneplant). Clinical and radiographic examinations were conducted at baseline (implant loading) and 3, 6, and 12 months postloading. Two-way repeated analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test the significance of marginal bone change of each tested group at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 month follow-ups and 1-way ANOVA was also used to compare the bone loss of each time interval within the same implant group (P < .05). At 12 months, significant differences were noted in the amount of alveolar bone loss recorded for the 3 groups (P < .05). The group with the rough-surfaced microthreaded neck had a mean crestal bone loss of 0.18 +/- 0.16 mm; the group with the rough-surfaced neck, 0.76 +/- 0.21 mm; and the group with the machined neck, 1.32 +/- 0.27 mm. In the rough-surfaced group and the rough-surfaced microthreaded group, no statistically significant changes were observed after 3 months, whereas the machined-surface group showed significant bone loss for every interval (P < .05). To minimize marginal bone loss, in addition to the use of a rough surface at the marginal bone level, a macroscopic modification such as the addition of microthreads could be recommended. A rough surface and microthreads at the implant neck not only reduce crestal bone loss but also help with early biomechanical adaptation against loading in comparison to the machined neck design. A rough surface with microthreads at the implant neck was the most effective design to maintain the marginal bone level against functional loading.

Six-dimensional quantum dynamics study for the dissociative adsorption of HCl on Au(111) surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Tianhui; Fu, Bina; Zhang, Dong H., E-mail: zhangdh@dicp.ac.cn

The six-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations for the dissociative chemisorption of HCl on Au(111) are carried out using the time-dependent wave-packet approach, based on an accurate PES which was recently developed by neural network fitting to density functional theory energy points. The influence of vibrational excitation and rotational orientation of HCl on the reactivity is investigated by calculating the exact six-dimensional dissociation probabilities, as well as the four-dimensional fixed-site dissociation probabilities. The vibrational excitation of HCl enhances the reactivity and the helicopter orientation yields higher dissociation probability than the cartwheel orientation. A new interesting site-averaged effect is found for the titlemore » molecule-surface system that one can essentially reproduce the six-dimensional dissociation probability by averaging the four-dimensional dissociation probabilities over 25 fixed sites.« less

The influence of regional Arctic sea-ice decline on stratospheric and tropospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Christine; Bracegirdle, Thomas; Shuckburgh, Emily; Haynes, Peter

2016-04-01

Arctic sea-ice extent has rapidly declined over the past few decades, and most climate models project a continuation of this trend during the 21st century in response to greenhouse gas forcing. A number of recent studies have shown that this sea-ice loss induces vertically propagating Rossby waves, which weaken the stratospheric polar vortex and increase the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). SSWs have been shown to increase the probability of a negative NAO in the following weeks, thereby driving anomalous weather conditions over Europe and other mid-latitude regions. In contrast, other studies have shown that Arctic sea-ice loss strengthens the polar vortex, increasing the probability of a positive NAO. Sun et al. (2015) suggest these conflicting results may be due to the region of sea-ice loss considered. They find that if only regions within the Arctic Circle are considered in sea-ice projections, the polar vortex weakens; if only regions outwith the Arctic Circle are considered, the polar vortex strengthens. This is because the anomalous Rossby waves forced in the former/latter scenario constructively/destructively interfere with climatological Rossby waves, thus enhancing/suppressing upward wave propagation. In this study, we investigate whether Sun et al.'s results are robust to a different model. We also divide the regions of sea-ice loss they considered into further sub-regions, in order to examine the regional differences in more detail. We do this by using the intermediate complexity climate model, IGCM4, which has a well resolved stratosphere and does a good job of representing stratospheric processes. Several simulations are run in atmosphere only mode, where one is a control experiment and the others are perturbation experiments. In the control run annually repeating historical mean surface conditions are imposed at the lower boundary, whereas in each perturbation run the model is forced by SST perturbations imposed in a specific region (one perturbation experiment combines all regions). These regions correspond to sea-ice loss hotspots such as the Barents-Kara Seas and the Bering Sea. The differences between the control and perturbation runs yields the effects of the imposed sea-ice loss on the polar vortex. To detect and count SSWs for each run, we use the World Meteorological Organisation's definition of an SSW (a reversal in zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 60° N, and a reversal in zonal mean meridional temperature gradient at 10 hPa between 60° N and 90° N). The poster will present and discuss the initial results of this study. Implications of the results for future change in the lower latitude mid-troposphere will be discussed. References Sun, L., C. Deser, and R. A. Tomas, 2015: Mechanisms of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Circulation Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss. J. Climate, 28, 7824-7845, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0169.1.

Soil Erodibility Parameters Under Various Cropping Systems of Maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, P. M.; van der Zijp, M.; Kwaad, F. J. P. M.

1996-08-01

For four years, runoff and soil loss from seven cropping systems of fodder maize have been measured on experimental plots under natural and simulated rainfall. Besides runoff and soil loss, several variables have also been measured, including rainfall kinetic energy, degree of slaking, surface roughness, aggregate stability, soil moisture content, crop cover, shear strength and topsoil porosity. These variables explain a large part of the variance in measured runoff, soil loss and splash erosion under the various cropping systems. The following conclusions were drawn from the erosion measurements on the experimental plots (these conclusions apply to the spatial level at which the measurements were carried out). (1) Soil tillage after maize harvest strongly reduced surface runoff and soil loss during the winter; sowing of winter rye further reduced winter erosion, though the difference with a merely tilled soil is small. (2) During spring and the growing season, soil loss is reduced strongly if the soil surface is partly covered by plant residues; the presence of plant residue on the surface appeared to be essential in achieving erosion reduction in summer. (3) Soil loss reductions were much higher than runoff reductions; significant runoff reduction is only achieved by the straw system having flat-lying, non-fixed plant residue on the soil surface; the other systems, though effective in reducing soil loss, were not effective in reducing runoff.

Use of CFD Analyses to Predict Disk Friction Loss of Centrifugal Compressor Impellers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Leesang; Lee, Seawook; Cho, Jinsoo

To improve the total efficiency of centrifugal compressors, it is necessary to reduce disk friction loss, which is expressed as the power loss. In this study, to reduce the disk friction loss due to the effect of axial clearance and surface roughness is analyzed and methods to reduce disk friction loss are proposed. The rotating reference frame technique using a commercial CFD tool (FLUENT) is used for steady-state analysis of the centrifugal compressor. Numerical results of the CFD analysis are compared with theoretical results using established experimental empirical equations. The disk friction loss of the impeller is decreased in line with increments in axial clearance until the axial clearance between the impeller disk and the casing is smaller than the boundary layer thickness. In addition, the disk friction loss of the impeller is increased in line with the increments in surface roughness in a similar pattern as that of existing experimental empirical formulas. The disk friction loss of the impeller is more affected by the surface roughness than the change of the axial clearance. To minimize disk friction loss on the centrifugal compressor impeller, the axial clearance and the theoretical boundary layer thickness should be designed to be the same. The design of the impeller requires careful consideration in order to optimize axial clearance and minimize surface roughness.

Organic Over-the-Horizon Targeting for the 2025 Surface Fleet

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

Detection Phit Probability of Hit Pk Probability of Kill PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PMEL Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory...probability of hit ( Phit ). 2. Top-Level Functional Flow Block Diagram With the high-level functions of the project’s systems of systems properly

Long-Term Changes In The Shallow Water Table In A Mining Area: The Lubin-Glogow Copper Region, Southwestern Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bochenska, T.; Limisiewicz, P.; Loprawski, L.

1995-03-01

In regions of intense mining, shortages of water are common. Increased water demand is normally associated with industry in mining areas, and mine unwatering has negative effects on the natural groundwater balance. The study area occupies 3,300 square kilometers within the copper mining region of Lubin-Glogow, southwestern Poland. Pumping of groundwater to drain mines has created a cone of depression that underlies 2,500 square kilometers. The lowering of potentiometric surfaces has occurred in deep aquifers, which are isolated from the surface by thick confining units (loams and clays). Changes of hydraulic head in the shallow aquifer have not previously been observed. In this study, the authors analyzed the water-table changes in the shallow aquifer. The statistical analysis of the water table was based on two sets of water-level measurements in about 1,200 farm wells during dry seasons. The first set was done in the fall of 1986, the second in the fall of 1991. In addition to these measurements, multi-seasonal observations were made by the mining survey in several tens of wells. During five years, the head declined an average of 0.4 meter. Locally, the lowering was as great as five meters. The regional decline of head resulted in a loss of water resources about 2×108 cubic meters. Regionally, this loss is not directly related to the dewatering of copper mines. Locally, however, mining activity strongly influences the water table. The general trend of the decline is probably an effect of decreasing precipitation.

Effects of RTV coating on the electrical performance of polymer insulator under lightning impulse voltage condition.

PubMed

Jamaludin, Farah Adilah; Ab-Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin; Izadi, Mahdi; Azis, Norhafiz; Jasni, Jasronita; Abd-Rahman, Muhammad Syahmi

2017-01-01

Located near the equator, Malaysia is a country with one of the highest lightning densities in the world. Lightning contributes to 70% of the power outages in Malaysia and affects power equipment, automated network systems, causes data losses and monetary losses in the nation. Therefore, consideration of insulator evaluation under lightning impulses can be crucial to evaluate and attempt to overcome this issue. This paper presents a new approach to increase the electrical performance of polymer insulators using a Room Temperature Vulcanisation (RTV) coating. The evaluation involves three different settings of polymer insulator, namely uncoated, RTV type 1, and RTV type 2 upper surface coatings. All the insulators were tested under three different conditions as dry, clean wet and salty under different impulse polarities using the even-rising test method. The voltage breakdown for each test was recorded. From the experiment, it was found that the effectiveness of the RTV coating application became apparent when tested under salty or polluted conditions. It increased the voltage withstand capabilities of the polymer insulator up to 50% from the basic uncoated insulator. Under dry and clean conditions, the RTV coating provided just a slight increase of the breakdown voltage. The increase in voltage breakdown capability decreased the probability of surface discharge and dry band arcing that could cause degradation of the polymeric material housing. The RTV type 1 coating was found to be more effective when performing under a lightning impulse. The findings might help the utility companies improve the performance of their insulators in order to increase power system reliability.

Effects of RTV coating on the electrical performance of polymer insulator under lightning impulse voltage condition

PubMed Central

Jamaludin, Farah Adilah; Ab-Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin; Izadi, Mahdi; Azis, Norhafiz; Jasni, Jasronita; Abd-Rahman, Muhammad Syahmi

2017-01-01

Located near the equator, Malaysia is a country with one of the highest lightning densities in the world. Lightning contributes to 70% of the power outages in Malaysia and affects power equipment, automated network systems, causes data losses and monetary losses in the nation. Therefore, consideration of insulator evaluation under lightning impulses can be crucial to evaluate and attempt to overcome this issue. This paper presents a new approach to increase the electrical performance of polymer insulators using a Room Temperature Vulcanisation (RTV) coating. The evaluation involves three different settings of polymer insulator, namely uncoated, RTV type 1, and RTV type 2 upper surface coatings. All the insulators were tested under three different conditions as dry, clean wet and salty under different impulse polarities using the even-rising test method. The voltage breakdown for each test was recorded. From the experiment, it was found that the effectiveness of the RTV coating application became apparent when tested under salty or polluted conditions. It increased the voltage withstand capabilities of the polymer insulator up to 50% from the basic uncoated insulator. Under dry and clean conditions, the RTV coating provided just a slight increase of the breakdown voltage. The increase in voltage breakdown capability decreased the probability of surface discharge and dry band arcing that could cause degradation of the polymeric material housing. The RTV type 1 coating was found to be more effective when performing under a lightning impulse. The findings might help the utility companies improve the performance of their insulators in order to increase power system reliability. PMID:29136025

Maximizing carbon storage in the Appalachians: A method for considering the risk of disturbance events

Treesearch

Michael R. Vanderberg; Kevin Boston; John Bailey

2011-01-01

Accounting for the probability of loss due to disturbance events can influence the prediction of carbon flux over a planning horizon, and can affect the determination of optimal silvicultural regimes to maximize terrestrial carbon storage. A preliminary model that includes forest disturbance-related carbon loss was developed to maximize expected values of carbon stocks...

The impact of resource loss on Holocaust survivors facing war and terrorism in Israel

PubMed Central

Dekel, R.; Hobfoll, S. E.

2009-01-01

We examined the distress level of 102 Holocaust survivors in Israel during a recent period of continuous exposure of the Israeli population to terror and the threat of missile attack. Based on the Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, we explored the contribution of losses suffered during the Holocaust and of current loss of resources due to terror attacks on their distress level. Twenty one percent of the sample had probable PTSD and high psychological distress levels in general. Current loss of psychosocial resources contributed significantly to survivors’ current PTSD symptomatology and general psychological distress, above the contribution of the previous Holocaust-related loss. Our findings support COR theory, which states that traumatic events are associated with ongoing and often rapid loss of resources. Resource loss, in turn, is associated with higher distress levels. Moreover, current loss of resources compounds the impact of earlier resource losses incurred during the Holocaust. PMID:17453549

Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2009-04-01

Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

[Characteristics of nutrient loss by runoff in sloping arable land of yellow-brown under different rainfall intensities].

PubMed

Chen, Ling; Liu, De-Fu; Song, Lin-Xu; Cui, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Gei

2013-06-01

In order to investigate the loss characteristics of N and P through surface flow and interflow under different rainfall intensities, a field experiment was conducted on the sloping arable land covered by typical yellow-brown soils inXiangxi River watershed by artificial rainfall. The results showed that the discharge of surface flow, total runoff and sediment increased with the increase of rain intensity, while the interflow was negatively correlated with rain intensity under the same total rainfall. TN, DN and DP were all flushed at the very beginning in surface flow underdifferent rainfall intensities; TP fluctuated and kept consistent in surface flow without obvious downtrend. While TN, DN and DP in interflow kept relatively stable in the whole runoff process, TP was high at the early stage, then rapidly decreased with time and kept steady finally. P was directly influenced by rainfall intensity, its concentration in the runoff increased with the increase of the rainfall intensity, the average concentration of N and P both exceeded the threshold of eutrophication of freshwater. The higher the amount of P loss was, the higher the rain intensity. The change of N loss was the opposite. The contribution rate of TN loss carried by surface flow increased from 36.5% to 57.6% with the increase of rainfall intensity, but surface flow was the primary form of P loss which contributed above 90.0%. Thus, it is crucial to control interflow in order to reduce N loss. In addition, measures should be taken to effectively manage soil erosion to mitigate P loss. The proportion of dissolved nitrogen in surface flow elevated with the decrease of rainfall intensity, but in interflow, dissolved form was predominant. P was exported mainly in the form of particulate under different rainfall intensities and runoff conditions.

Surface composition changes in massive star evolution with mass loss

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noels, A.; Gabriel, M.; Vreux, J.-M.; Conti, P. S.

1980-01-01

A series of evolutionary models of 40-100 solar mass objects undergoing mass loss are constructed with the explicit inclusion of the surface composition of H, He, C, N, O elements. Mass loss rates similar to those observed in Of stars, 4 to 7 x 10 to the -6th solar masses/yr, result in an appearance at the surface of equilibrium CNO products, i.e. enhanced nitrogen and diminished carbon, while that star is still burning hydrogen in the core. This result obtains because the initial convection core is a relatively large fraction of the total mass and rather modest loss exposes levels of anomalous composition. It is suggested that these objects might reasonably be identified as those luminous late type WN stars still containing surface hydrogen.

Influence of gravel mining and other factors on detection probabilities of Coastal Plain fishes in the Mobile River Basin, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayer, C.-A.; Irwin, E.R.

2008-01-01

We used an information-theoretic approach to examine the variation in detection probabilities for 87 Piedmont and Coastal Plain fishes in relation to instream gravel mining in four Alabama streams of the Mobile River drainage. Biotic and abiotic variables were also included in candidate models. Detection probabilities were heterogeneous across species and varied with habitat type, stream, season, and water quality. Instream gravel mining influenced the variation in detection probabilities for 38% of the species collected, probably because it led to habitat loss and increased sedimentation. Higher detection probabilities were apparent at unmined sites than at mined sites for 78% of the species for which gravel mining was shown to influence detection probabilities, indicating potential negative impacts to these species. Physical and chemical attributes also explained the variation in detection probabilities for many species. These results indicate that anthropogenic impacts can affect detection probabilities for fishes, and such variation should be considered when developing monitoring programs or routine sampling protocols. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Resonant coherent excitation of relativistic Ar 17+ ions channeled in a Si crystal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, T.; Ito, T.; Yamazaki, Y.; Komaki, K.; Sano, M.; Torikoshi, M.; Kitagawa, A.; Takada, E.; Murakami, T.

1998-02-01

We observed resonant coherent excitation (RCE) of 1s electron to n=2 states in Ar 17+ through measurements of the survived fraction of 390 MeV/u hydrogen-like Ar 17+ channeled in a Si crystal. We adopted a totally depleted Si surface barrier detector as a target crystal as well as a probe of the energy deposition. The charge state of emerged ions was measured by a combination of a charge separation magnet and a 2D-position sensitive detector. We observed the RCE for planar channeled ions by tilting the target Si crystal from the direction of [1 1 0] axis in the (2 2¯ 0) , (0 0 4) , and (1 1¯ 1) planes. Prominent resonances at tilt angles under the resonance condition were observed. Moreover, each resonance profile is split into several lines due to the l· s interaction and the Stark effect originating in the static crystal field. The energy deposition in the crystal gives the information of the amplitude of the ion trajectory. The resonance peak position, intensity and width in the survived fraction of Ar 17+ reflect the position dependent strength of the crystal field, the RCE and the electron loss probabilities. They are in good accord with our calculation of the transition energy and probability.

Nutrient Runoff Losses from Liquid Dairy Manure Applied with Low-Disturbance Methods.

PubMed

Jokela, William; Sherman, Jessica; Cavadini, Jason

2016-09-01

Manure applied to cropland is a source of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in surface runoff and can contribute to impairment of surface waters. Tillage immediately after application incorporates manure into the soil, which may reduce nutrient loss in runoff as well as N loss via NH volatilization. However, tillage also incorporates crop residue, which reduces surface cover and may increase erosion potential. We applied liquid dairy manure in a silage corn ( L.)-cereal rye ( L.) cover crop system in late October using methods designed to incorporate manure with minimal soil and residue disturbance. These include strip-till injection and tine aerator-band manure application, which were compared with standard broadcast application, either incorporated with a disk or left on the surface. Runoff was generated with a portable rainfall simulator (42 mm h for 30 min) three separate times: (i) 2 to 5 d after the October manure application, (ii) in early spring, and (iii) after tillage and planting. In the postmanure application runoff, the highest losses of total P and dissolved reactive P were from surface-applied manure. Dissolved P loss was reduced 98% by strip-till injection; this result was not statistically different from the no-manure control. Reductions from the aerator band method and disk incorporation were 53 and 80%, respectively. Total P losses followed a similar pattern, with 87% reduction from injected manure. Runoff losses of N had generally similar patterns to those of P. Losses of P and N were, in most cases, lower in the spring rain simulations with fewer significant treatment effects. Overall, results show that low-disturbance manure application methods can significantly reduce nutrient runoff losses compared with surface application while maintaining residue cover better than incorporation by tillage. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The Acoustic Model Evaluation Committee (AMEC) Reports. Volume 1A. Summary of Range Independent Environment Acoustic Propagation Data Sets

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

experiment were: isothermal layer depth 36 ft depressed channel axis 66 ft surface water temperature 59.4 F sea state 2 Discussion The propagation loss...experiments were: isothermal layer depths 56 ft surface water temperature 59.7 0F - sea state 1 Discussion The propagation loss measurements are summarized...number of observations 1854 isothermal layer depth 33 ft surface water temperature 59.9°F sea state 2 Discussion The propagation loss measurements

Effects of thickness, insulation, and surface color on the net heat loss through an adobe wall

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herman, R.W.

1980-01-01

A finite difference computer program was written and run to study the net thermal losses through a large variety of adobe walls. Fifty-four different combinations of surface color, wall thickness, and insulation position and R value were modeled over a typical two week winter period for locations similar to Albuquerque, New Mexico. A transient analysis of the heat loss from the room to the interior wall surface was compared to both conventional U value and steady-state calculations.

Deterministic quantum state transfer between remote qubits in cavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogell, B.; Vermersch, B.; Northup, T. E.; Lanyon, B. P.; Muschik, C. A.

2017-12-01

Performing a faithful transfer of an unknown quantum state is a key challenge for enabling quantum networks. The realization of networks with a small number of quantum links is now actively pursued, which calls for an assessment of different state transfer methods to guide future design decisions. Here, we theoretically investigate quantum state transfer between two distant qubits, each in a cavity, connected by a waveguide, e.g., an optical fiber. We evaluate the achievable success probabilities of state transfer for two different protocols: standard wave packet shaping and adiabatic passage. The main loss sources are transmission losses in the waveguide and absorption losses in the cavities. While special cases studied in the literature indicate that adiabatic passages may be beneficial in this context, it remained an open question under which conditions this is the case and whether their use will be advantageous in practice. We answer these questions by providing a full analysis, showing that state transfer by adiabatic passage—in contrast to wave packet shaping—can mitigate the effects of undesired cavity losses, far beyond the regime of coupling to a single waveguide mode and the regime of lossless waveguides, as was proposed so far. Furthermore, we show that the photon arrival probability is in fact bounded in a trade-off between losses due to non-adiabaticity and due to coupling to off-resonant waveguide modes. We clarify that neither protocol can avoid transmission losses and discuss how the cavity parameters should be chosen to achieve an optimal state transfer.

Process for forming silicon carbide films and microcomponents

DOEpatents

Hamza, A.V.; Balooch, M.; Moalem, M.

1999-01-19

Silicon carbide films and microcomponents are grown on silicon substrates at surface temperatures between 900 K and 1700 K via C{sub 60} precursors in a hydrogen-free environment. Selective crystalline silicon carbide growth can be achieved on patterned silicon-silicon oxide samples. Patterned SiC films are produced by making use of the high reaction probability of C{sub 60} with silicon at surface temperatures greater than 900 K and the negligible reaction probability for C{sub 60} on silicon dioxide at surface temperatures less than 1250 K. 5 figs.

Process for forming silicon carbide films and microcomponents

DOEpatents

Hamza, Alex V.; Balooch, Mehdi; Moalem, Mehran

1999-01-01

Silicon carbide films and microcomponents are grown on silicon substrates at surface temperatures between 900 K and 1700 K via C.sub.60 precursors in a hydrogen-free environment. Selective crystalline silicon carbide growth can be achieved on patterned silicon-silicon oxide samples. Patterned SiC films are produced by making use of the high reaction probability of C.sub.60 with silicon at surface temperatures greater than 900 K and the negligible reaction probability for C.sub.60 on silicon dioxide at surface temperatures less than 1250 K.

Converged three-dimensional quantum mechanical reaction probabilities for the F + H2 reaction on a potential energy surface with realistic entrance and exit channels and comparisons to results for three other surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynch, Gillian C.; Halvick, Philippe; Zhao, Meishan; Truhlar, Donald G.; Yu, Chin-Hui; Kouri, Donald J.; Schwenke, David W.

1991-01-01

Accurate three-dimensional quantum mechanical reaction probabilities are presented for the reaction F + H2 yields HF + H on the new global potential energy surface 5SEC for total angular momentum J = 0 over a range of translational energies from 0.15 to 4.6 kcal/mol. It is found that the v-prime = 3 HF vibrational product state has a threshold as low as for v-prime = 2.

Communication: Methane dissociation on Ni(111) surface: Importance of azimuth and surface impact site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Xiangjian; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Reaction Dynamics and Center for Theoretical Computational Chemistry, Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Dalian 116023; Zhang, Zhaojun, E-mail: zhangzhj@dicp.ac.cn, E-mail: zhangdh@dicp.ac.cn

2016-03-14

Understanding the role of reactant ro-vibrational degrees of freedom (DOFs) in reaction dynamics of polyatomic molecular dissociation on metal surfaces is of great importance to explore the complex chemical reaction mechanism. Here, we present an expensive quantum dynamics study of the dissociative chemisorption of CH{sub 4} on a rigid Ni(111) surface by developing an accurate nine-dimensional quantum dynamical model including the DOF of azimuth. Based on a highly accurate fifteen-dimensional potential energy surface built from first principles, our simulations elucidate that the dissociation probability of CH{sub 4} has the strong dependence on azimuth and surface impact site. Some improvements aremore » suggested to obtain the accurate dissociation probability from quantum dynamics simulations.« less

Ar Atmosphere: Implications for Structure and Composition of Mercury's Crust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Killen, R. M.; Morgan, T. H.

2001-01-01

We examine the possibilities of sustaining an argon atmosphere by diffusion from the upper 10 km of crust, and alternatively by effusion from a molten or previously molten area at great depth . Ar-40 in the atmospheres of the planets is a measure of potassium abundance in the interiors since Ar-40 is a product of radiogenic decay of K-40 by electron capture with the subsequent emission of a 1.46 eV gamma-ray. Although the Ar-40 in the earth's atmosphere is expected to have accumulated since the late bombardment, Ar-40 in surface-bounded exospheres is eroded quickly by photoionization and electron impact ionization. Thus, the argon content in the exospheres of the Moon, Mercury and probably Europa is representative of current effusion rather than accumulation over the lifetime of the body. Argon content will be a function of K content, temperature, grain size distribution, connected pore volume and possible seismic activity. Although Mercury and the Moon differ in many details, we can train the solutions to diffusion equations to predict the average lunar atmosphere. Then these parameters can be varied for Hermean conditions. Assuming a lunar crustal potassium abundance of 300 ppm, the observed argon atmosphere requires equilibrium between the argon production in the upper 9 Km of the moon (1.135 x 10(exp -3) cm(exp -3) s(exp -1)) and its loss. Hodges et al. conclude that this loss rate and the observed time variability requires argon release through seismic activity, tapping a deep argon source. An important observation is that the extreme surface of the Moon is enhanced in argon rather than depleted, as one would expect from outgassing of radiogenic argon. Manka and Michel concluded that ion implantation explains the surface enhancement of Ar-40. About half of the argon ions produced in the lunar atmosphere would return to the surface, where they would become embedded in the rocks. Similarly, at Mercury we expect the surface rocks to be enhanced in Ar-40 wherever the magnetosphere has been open over time. Thus the measurement of surface composition will reveal the long-term effects of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2017-07-01

In this paper we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system.

The effects of radiative heat loss on microgravity flame spread

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fakheri, Ahmad; Olson, Sandra L.

1989-01-01

The effect of radiative heat loss from the surface of a solid material burning in a zero gravity environment in an opposed flow is studied through the use of a numerical model. Radiative heat loss is found to decrease the flame spread rate, the boundary layer thickness, and pyrolysis lengths. Blowoff extinction is predicted to occur at slower opposesd flow velocities than would occur if the radiative loss is not present. The radiative heat fluxes are comparable to the conduction fluxes, indicating the significance of the surface energy loss.

Respiratory Particle Deposition Probability Due to Sedimentation with Variable Gravity and Electrostatic Forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haranas, Ioannis; Gkigkitzis, Ioannis; Zouganelis, George D.; Haranas, Maria K.; Kirk, Samantha

2014-11-01

In this chapter, we study Sedimentation -- the effects of the acceleration gravity on the sedimentation deposition probability, as well as the aerosol deposition rate on the surface of the Earth and Mars, but also aboard a spacecraft in orbit around Earth and Mars as well for particles with density ρ p = 1,300 kg/m3, diameters d p = 1, 3, 5 μm, and residence times t = 0.0272, 0.2 s, respectively. For particles of diameter 1 μm we find that, on the surface of Earth and Mars the deposition probabilities are higher at the poles when compared to the ones at the equator. Similarly, on the surface of the Earth we find that the deposition probabilities exhibit 0.5 and 0.4 % higher percentage difference at the poles when compared to that of the equator, for the corresponding residence times. Moreover in orbit equatorial orbits result to higher deposition probabilities when compared to polar ones. For both residence times particles with the diameters considered above in circular and elliptical orbits around Mars, the deposition probabilities appear to be the same for all orbital inclinations. Sedimentation probability increases drastically with particle diameter and orbital eccentricity of the orbiting spacecraft. Finally, as an alternative framework for the study of interaction and the effect of gravity in biology, and in particular gravity and the respiratory system we introduce is the term information in a way Shannon has introduced it, considering the sedimentation probability as a random variable. This can be thought as a way in which gravity enters the cognitive processes of the system (processing of information) in the cybernetic sense.

Respiratory particle deposition probability due to sedimentation with variable gravity and electrostatic forces.

PubMed

Haranas, Ioannis; Gkigkitzis, Ioannis; Zouganelis, George D; Haranas, Maria K; Kirk, Samantha

2015-01-01

In this chapter, we study the effects of the acceleration gravity on the sedimentation deposition probability, as well as the aerosol deposition rate on the surface of the Earth and Mars, but also aboard a spacecraft in orbit around Earth and Mars as well for particles with density ρ p = 1,300 kg/m³, diameters d p = 1, 3, 5 μm, and residence times t = 0.0272, 0.2 , respectively. For particles of diameter 1 μm we find that, on the surface of Earth and Mars the deposition probabilities are higher at the poles when compared to the ones at the equator. Similarly, on the surface of the Earth we find that the deposition probabilities exhibit 0.5 and 0.4 % higher percentage difference at the poles when compared to that of the equator, for the corresponding residence times. Moreover in orbit equatorial orbits result to higher deposition probabilities when compared to polar ones. For both residence times particles with the diameters considered above in circular and elliptical orbits around Mars, the deposition probabilities appear to be the same for all orbital inclinations. Sedimentation probability increases drastically with particle diameter and orbital eccentricity of the orbiting spacecraft. Finally, as an alternative framework for the study of interaction and the effect of gravity in biology, and in particular gravity and the respiratory system we introduce is the term information in a way Shannon has introduced it, considering the sedimentation probability as a random variable. This can be thought as a way in which gravity enters the cognitive processes of the system (processing of information) in the cybernetic sense.

Optimal design and installation of ultra high bypass ratio turbofan nacelle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savelyev, Andrey; Zlenko, Nikolay; Matyash, Evgeniy; Mikhaylov, Sergey; Shenkin, Andrey

2016-10-01

The paper is devoted to the problem of designing and optimizing the nacelle of turbojet bypass engine with high bypass ratio and high thrust. An optimization algorithm EGO based on development of surrogate models and the method for maximizing the probability of improving the objective function has been used. The designing methodology has been based on the numerical solution of the Reynolds equations system. Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model has been chosen for RANS closure. The effective thrust losses has been uses as an objective function in optimizing the engine nacelle. As a result of optimization, effective thrust has been increased by 1.5 %. The Blended wing body aircraft configuration has been studied as a possible application. Two variants of the engine layout arrangement have been considered. It has been shown that the power plant changes the pressure distribution on the aircraft surface. It results in essential diminishing the configuration lift-drag ratio.

Investigation into Cause of High Temperature Failure of Boiler Superheater Tube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, D.; Ray, S.; Roy, H.; Shukla, A. K.

2015-04-01

The failure of the boiler tubes occur due to various reasons like creep, fatigue, corrosion and erosion. This paper highlights a case study of typical premature failure of a final superheater tube of 210 MW thermal power plant boiler. Visual examination, dimensional measurement, chemical analysis, oxide scale thickness measurement, microstructural examination are conducted as part of the investigations. Apart from these investigations, sulfur print, Energy Dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and X ray diffraction analysis (XRD) are also conducted to ascertain the probable cause of failure of final super heater tube. Finally it has been concluded that the premature failure of the super heater tube can be attributed to the combination of localized high tube metal temperature and loss of metal from the outer surface due to high temperature corrosion. The corrective actions have also been suggested to avoid this type of failure in near future.

Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish calcification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazeau, Frédéric; Quiblier, Christophe; Jansen, Jeroen M.; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Middelburg, Jack J.; Heip, Carlo H. R.

2007-04-01

Ocean acidification resulting from human emissions of carbon dioxide has already lowered and will further lower surface ocean pH. The consequent decrease in calcium carbonate saturation potentially threatens calcareous marine organisms. Here, we demonstrate that the calcification rates of the edible mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) decline linearly with increasing pCO2. Mussel and oyster calcification may decrease by 25 and 10%, respectively, by the end of the century, following the IPCC IS92a scenario (~740 ppmv in 2100). Moreover, mussels dissolve at pCO2 values exceeding a threshold value of ~1800 ppmv. As these two species are important ecosystem engineers in coastal ecosystems and represent a large part of worldwide aquaculture production, the predicted decrease of calcification in response to ocean acidification will probably have an impact on coastal biodiversity and ecosystem functioning as well as potentially lead to significant economic loss.

Improving confidence in environmental DNA species detection.

PubMed

Jerde, Christopher L; Mahon, Andrew R

2015-05-01

Will we catch fish today? Our grandfathers' responses were usually something along the lines of, 'Probably. I've caught them here before'. One of the foundations of ecology is identifying which species are present, and where. This informs our understanding of species richness patterns, spread of invasive species, and loss of threatened and endangered species due to environmental change. However, our understanding is often lacking, particularly in aquatic environments where biodiversity remains hidden below the water's surface. The emerging field of metagenetic species surveillance is aiding our ability to rapidly determine which aquatic species are present, and where. In this issue of Molecular Ecology Resources, Ficetola et al. () provide a framework for metagenetic environmental DNA surveillance to foster the confidence of our grandfathers' fishing prowess by more rigorously evaluating the replication levels necessary to quantify detection errors and ultimately improving our confidence in aquatic species presence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phosphorus runoff losses from subsurface-applied poultry litter on coastal plain soils.

PubMed

Kibet, Leonard C; Allen, Arthur L; Kleinman, Peter J A; Feyereisen, Gary W; Church, Clinton; Saporito, Lou S; Way, Thomas R

2011-01-01

The application of poultry litter to soils is a water quality concern on the Delmarva Peninsula, as runoff contributes P to the eutrophic Chesapeake Bay. This study compared a new subsurface applicator for poultry litter with conventional surface application and tillage incorporation of litter on a Coastal Plain soil under no-till management. Monolith lysimeters (61 cm by 61 cm by 61 cm) were collected immediately after litter application and subjected to rainfall simulation (61 mm h(-1) 1 h) 15 and 42 d later. In the first rainfall event, subsurface application of litter significantly lowered total P losses in runoff (1.90 kg ha(-1)) compared with surface application (4.78 kg ha(-1)). Losses of P with subsurface application were not significantly different from disked litter or an unamended control. By the second event, total P losses did not differ significantly between surface and subsurface litter treatments but were at least twofold greater than losses from the disked and control treatments. A rising water table in the second event likely mobilized dissolved forms of P in subsurface-applied litter to the soil surface, enriching runoff water with P. Across both events, subsurface application of litter did not significantly decrease cumulative losses of P relative to surface-applied litter, whereas disking the litter into the soil did. Results confirm the short-term reduction of runoff P losses with subsurface litter application observed elsewhere but highlight the modifying effect of soil hydrology on this technology's ability to minimize P loss in runoff.

Hydrology of the Lake Wingra basin, Dane County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oakes, Edward L.; Hendrickson, G.E.; Zuehls, E.E.

1975-01-01

The calculated 1972 water budget for the lake showed gains of about 3,560 millimetres (140 inches) and losses of about 3,500 millimetres (138 inches). A discrepancy of about 60 millimetres (2 inches) probably was caused in part by uncertainties in ground-water inflow and outflow. Effects of evapotranspiration and ground-water inflow in the marsh area southwest of the lake also probably contribute to the discrepancy.

Consideration of probability of bacterial growth for Jovian planets and their satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, D. M.; Berkman, R. M.; Divine, N.

1975-01-01

Environmental parameters affecting growth of bacteria (e.g., moisture, temperature, pH, and chemical composition) were compared with current atmospheric models for Jupiter and Saturn, and with the available physical data for their satellites. Different zones of relative probability of growth were identified for Jupiter and Saturn, with the highest in pressure regions of 1-10 million N/sq m (10 to 100 atmospheres) and 3-30 million N/sq m (30 to 300 atmospheres), respectively. Of the more than two dozen satellites, only the largest (Io, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, and Titan) were found to be interesting biologically. Titan's atmosphere may produce a substantial greenhouse effect providing increased surface temperatures. Models predicting a dense atmosphere are compatible with microbial growth for a range of pressures at Titan's surface. For Titan's surface the probability of growth would be enhanced if (1) the surface is entirely or partially liquid (water), (2) volcanism (in an ice-water-steam system) is present, or (3) access to internal heat sources is significant.

Effects of Stress Ratio and Microstructure on Fatigue Failure Behavior of Polycrystalline Nickel Superalloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Guan, Z. W.; Wang, Q. Y.; Liu, Y. J.; Li, J. K.

2018-05-01

The effects of microstructure and stress ratio on high cycle fatigue of nickel superalloy Nimonic 80A were investigated. The stress ratios of 0.1, 0.5 and 0.8 were chosen to perform fatigue tests in a frequency of 110 Hz. Cleavage failure was observed, and three competing failure crack initiation modes were discovered by a scanning electron microscope, which were classified as surface without facets, surface with facets and subsurface with facets. With increasing the stress ratio from 0.1 to 0.8, the occurrence probability of surface and subsurface with facets also increased and reached the maximum value at R = 0.5, meanwhile the probability of surface initiation without facets decreased. The effect of microstructure on the fatigue fracture behavior at different stress ratios was also observed and discussed. Based on the Goodman diagram, it was concluded that the fatigue strength of 50% probability of failure at R = 0.1, 0.5 and 0.8 is lower than the modified Goodman line.

An estimation method of the direct benefit of a waterlogging control project applicable to the changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zengmei, L.; Guanghua, Q.; Zishen, C.

2015-05-01

The direct benefit of a waterlogging control project is reflected by the reduction or avoidance of waterlogging loss. Before and after the construction of a waterlogging control project, the disaster-inducing environment in the waterlogging-prone zone is generally different. In addition, the category, quantity and spatial distribution of the disaster-bearing bodies are also changed more or less. Therefore, under the changing environment, the direct benefit of a waterlogging control project should be the reduction of waterlogging losses compared to conditions with no control project. Moreover, the waterlogging losses with or without the project should be the mathematical expectations of the waterlogging losses when rainstorms of all frequencies meet various water levels in the drainage-accepting zone. So an estimation model of the direct benefit of waterlogging control is proposed. Firstly, on the basis of a Copula function, the joint distribution of the rainstorms and the water levels are established, so as to obtain their joint probability density function. Secondly, according to the two-dimensional joint probability density distribution, the dimensional domain of integration is determined, which is then divided into small domains so as to calculate the probability for each of the small domains and the difference between the average waterlogging loss with and without a waterlogging control project, called the regional benefit of waterlogging control project, under the condition that rainstorms in the waterlogging-prone zone meet the water level in the drainage-accepting zone. Finally, it calculates the weighted mean of the project benefit of all small domains, with probability as the weight, and gets the benefit of the waterlogging control project. Taking the estimation of benefit of a waterlogging control project in Yangshan County, Guangdong Province, as an example, the paper briefly explains the procedures in waterlogging control project benefit estimation. The results show that the waterlogging control benefit estimation model constructed is applicable to the changing conditions that occur in both the disaster-inducing environment of the waterlogging-prone zone and disaster-bearing bodies, considering all conditions when rainstorms of all frequencies meet different water levels in the drainage-accepting zone. Thus, the estimation method of waterlogging control benefit can reflect the actual situation more objectively, and offer a scientific basis for rational decision-making for waterlogging control projects.

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Seasoning and surfacing degrade in kiln-drying ponderosa pine in eastern Washington.

Treesearch

A.C. Knauss; E.H. Clarke

1961-01-01

This report presents results of a study to determine the degrade (loss in volume and value) of ponderosa pine lumber when cut, kiln-dried, and surfaced in accordance with commercial practice. The study measured (1) loss in volume due to culling and trimming surfaced dry lumber because of sawing, seasoning, and surfacing defects; (2) reduction in grade due to seasoning...

Seasoning and surfacing degrade in kiln-drying western hemlock in western Oregon.

Treesearch

A.C. Knauss; E.H. Clarke

1961-01-01

This report presents the results of a study to determine the degrade (loss in volume and value) of western hemlock lumber cut, kiln-dried, and surfaced in accordance with commercial practice in western Oregon. The study measured (1) loss in volume due to culling and trimming surfaced dry lumber because of sawing, seasoning, and surfacing defects; (2) reduction in grade...

Seasoning and surfacing degrade in kiln-drying Douglas-fir in western Oregon.

Treesearch

A.C. Knauss; E.H. Clarke

1959-01-01

This report presents the results of a study to determine the degrade—loss in volume and grade—of coast-type Douglas-fir lumber when kiln-dried and surfaced in accordance with commercial practice. The study measured (1) loss in volume due to culling and trimming of dry-surfaced lumber because of seasoning and surfacing defects, (2) reduction in grade...

Estimating extreme losses for the Florida Public Hurricane Model—part II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulati, Sneh; George, Florence; Hamid, Shahid

2018-02-01

Rising global temperatures are leading to an increase in the number of extreme events and losses (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/). Accurate estimation of these extreme losses with the intention of protecting themselves against them is critical to insurance companies. In a previous paper, Gulati et al. (2014) discussed probable maximum loss (PML) estimation for the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) using parametric and nonparametric methods. In this paper, we investigate the use of semi-parametric methods to do the same. Detailed analysis of the data shows that the annual losses from FPHLM do not tend to be very heavy tailed, and therefore, neither the popular Hill's method nor the moment's estimator work well. However, Pickand's estimator with threshold around the 84th percentile provides a good fit for the extreme quantiles for the losses.

Mitigation of nutrient losses via surface runoff from rice cropping systems with alternate wetting and drying irrigation and site-specific nutrient management practices.

PubMed

Liang, X Q; Chen, Y X; Nie, Z Y; Ye, Y S; Liu, J; Tian, G M; Wang, G H; Tuong, T P

2013-10-01

Resource-conserving irrigation and fertilizer management practices have been developed for rice systems which may help address water quality concerns by reducing N and P losses via surface runoff. Field experiments under three treatments, i.e., farmers' conventional practice (FCP), alternate wetting and drying (AWD), and AWD integrated with site-specific nutrient management (AWD + SSNM) were carried out during two rice seasons at two sites in the southwest Yangtze River delta region. Across site years, results indicated that under AWD irrigation (i.e., AWD and AWD + SSNM), water inputs were reduced by 13.4~27.5 % and surface runoff was reduced by 30.2~36.7 % compared to FCP. When AWD was implemented alone, total N and P loss masses via surface runoff were reduced by 23.3~30.4 % and 26.9~31.7 %, respectively, compared to FCP. However, nutrient concentrations of surface runoff did not decrease under AWD alone. Under AWD + SSNM, total N and P loss masses via surface runoff were reduced to a greater extent than AWD alone (39.4~47.6 % and 46.1~48.3 % compared to FCP, respectively), while fertilizer inputs and N surpluses significantly decreased and rice grain yields increased relative to FCP. Therefore, by more closely matching nutrient supply with crop demand and reducing both surface runoff and nutrient concentrations of surface runoff, our results demonstrate that integration of AWD and SSNM practices can mitigate N and P losses via surface runoff from rice fields while maintaining high yields.

SLC26A4 mutation testing for hearing loss associated with enlargement of the vestibular aqueduct

PubMed Central

Ito, Taku; Muskett, Julie; Chattaraj, Parna; Choi, Byung Yoon; Lee, Kyu Yup; Zalewski, Christopher K; King, Kelly A; Li, Xiangming; Wangemann, Philine; Shawker, Thomas; Brewer, Carmen C; Alper, Seth L; Griffith, Andrew J

2014-01-01

Pendred syndrome (PS) is characterized by autosomal recessive inheritance of goiter associated with a defect of iodide organification, hearing loss, enlargement of the vestibular aqueduct (EVA), and mutations of the SLC26A4 gene. However, not all EVA patients have PS or SLC26A4 mutations. Two mutant alleles of SLC26A4 are detected in ¼ of North American or European EVA populations, one mutant allele is detected in another ¼ of patient populations, and no mutations are detected in the other ½. The presence of two mutant alleles of SLC26A4 is associated with abnormal iodide organification, increased thyroid gland volume, increased severity of hearing loss, and bilateral EVA. The presence of a single mutant allele of SLC26A4 is associated with normal iodide organification, normal thyroid gland volume, less severe hearing loss and either bilateral or unilateral EVA. When other underlying correlations are accounted for, the presence of a cochlear malformation or the size of EVA does not have an effect on hearing thresholds. This is consistent with observations of an Slc26a4 mutant mouse model of EVA in which hearing loss is independent of endolymphatic hydrops or inner ear malformations. Segregation analyses of EVA in families suggest that the patients carrying one mutant allele of SLC26A4 have a second, undetected mutant allele of SLC26A4, and the probability of a sibling having EVA is consistent with its segregation as an autosomal recessive trait. Patients without any mutations are an etiologically heterogeneous group in which siblings have a lower probability of having EVA. SLC26A4 mutation testing can provide prognostic information to guide clinical surveillance and management, as well as the probability of EVA affecting a sibling. PMID:25960948

Association of N-cadherin levels and downstream effectors of Rho GTPases with dendritic spine loss induced by chronic stress in rat hippocampal neurons.

PubMed

Castañeda, Patricia; Muñoz, Mauricio; García-Rojo, Gonzalo; Ulloa, José L; Bravo, Javier A; Márquez, Ruth; García-Pérez, M Alexandra; Arancibia, Damaris; Araneda, Karina; Rojas, Paulina S; Mondaca-Ruff, David; Díaz-Véliz, Gabriela; Mora, Sergio; Aliaga, Esteban; Fiedler, Jenny L

2015-10-01

Chronic stress promotes cognitive impairment and dendritic spine loss in hippocampal neurons. In this animal model of depression, spine loss probably involves a weakening of the interaction between pre- and postsynaptic cell adhesion molecules, such as N-cadherin, followed by disruption of the cytoskeleton. N-cadherin, in concert with catenin, stabilizes the cytoskeleton through Rho-family GTPases. Via their effector LIM kinase (LIMK), RhoA and ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 1 (RAC) GTPases phosphorylate and inhibit cofilin, an actin-depolymerizing molecule, favoring spine growth. Additionally, RhoA, through Rho kinase (ROCK), inactivates myosin phosphatase through phosphorylation of the myosin-binding subunit (MYPT1), producing actomyosin contraction and probable spine loss. Some micro-RNAs negatively control the translation of specific mRNAs involved in Rho GTPase signaling. For example, miR-138 indirectly activates RhoA, and miR-134 reduces LIMK1 levels, resulting in spine shrinkage; in contrast, miR-132 activates RAC1, promoting spine formation. We evaluated whether N-cadherin/β-catenin and Rho signaling is sensitive to chronic restraint stress. Stressed rats exhibit anhedonia, impaired associative learning, and immobility in the forced swim test and reduction in N-cadherin levels but not β-catenin in the hippocampus. We observed a reduction in spine number in the apical dendrites of CA1 pyramidal neurons, with no effect on the levels of miR-132 or miR-134. Although the stress did not modify the RAC-LIMK-cofilin signaling pathway, we observed increased phospho-MYPT1 levels, probably mediated by RhoA-ROCK activation. Furthermore, chronic stress raises the levels of miR-138 in accordance with the observed activation of the RhoA-ROCK pathway. Our findings suggest that a dysregulation of RhoA-ROCK activity by chronic stress could potentially underlie spine loss in hippocampal neurons. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Erosion in radial inflow turbines. Volume 4: Erosion rates on internal surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clevenger, W. B., Jr.; Tabakoff, W.

1975-01-01

An analytic study of the rate at which material is removed by ingested dust impinging on the internal surfaces of a typical radial inflow turbine is presented. Results show that there are several regions which experience very severe erosion loss, and other regions that experience moderate levels of erosion loss: (1) the greatest amount of material loss occurs on the trailing edges of the nozzle blades where very high velocity, moderate angle impacts occur. The tip regions of ductile materials are also subjected to serious levels of erosion loss; (2) moderate amounts of erosion occur near the end of the scroll and on a few of the nozzle blades near this location. Results are presented in the form of surface contours that exist on the scroll and blade surfaces after continuous particulate ingestion with time.

Abort Trigger False Positive and False Negative Analysis Methodology for Threshold-Based Abort Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melcher, Kevin J.; Cruz, Jose A.; Johnson Stephen B.; Lo, Yunnhon

2015-01-01

This paper describes a quantitative methodology for bounding the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) probabilities associated with a human-rated launch vehicle abort trigger (AT) that includes sensor data qualification (SDQ). In this context, an AT is a hardware and software mechanism designed to detect the existence of a specific abort condition. Also, SDQ is an algorithmic approach used to identify sensor data suspected of being corrupt so that suspect data does not adversely affect an AT's detection capability. The FP and FN methodologies presented here were developed to support estimation of the probabilities of loss of crew and loss of mission for the Space Launch System (SLS) which is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The paper provides a brief overview of system health management as being an extension of control theory; and describes how ATs and the calculation of FP and FN probabilities relate to this theory. The discussion leads to a detailed presentation of the FP and FN methodology and an example showing how the FP and FN calculations are performed. This detailed presentation includes a methodology for calculating the change in FP and FN probabilities that result from including SDQ in the AT architecture. To avoid proprietary and sensitive data issues, the example incorporates a mixture of open literature and fictitious reliability data. Results presented in the paper demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in providing quantitative estimates that bound the probability of a FP or FN abort determination.

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan

2015-06-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.

Loss of Load Probability Calculation for West Java Power System with Nuclear Power Plant Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizah, I. D.; Abdullah, A. G.; Purnama, W.; Nandiyanto, A. B. D.; Shafii, M. A.

2017-03-01

Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) index showing the quality and performance of an electrical system. LOLP value is affected by load growth, the load duration curve, forced outage rate of the plant, number and capacity of generating units. This reliability index calculation begins with load forecasting to 2018 using multiple regression method. Scenario 1 with compositions of conventional plants produce the largest LOLP in 2017 amounted to 71.609 days / year. While the best reliability index generated in scenario 2 with the NPP amounted to 6.941 days / year in 2015. Improved reliability of systems using nuclear power more efficiently when compared to conventional plants because it also has advantages such as emission-free, inexpensive fuel costs, as well as high level of plant availability.

Multivariate flood risk assessment: reinsurance perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Ellenrieder, Tobias

2013-04-01

For insurance and re-insurance purposes the knowledge of the spatial characteristics of fluvial flooding is fundamental. The probability of simultaneous flooding at different locations during one event and the associated severity and losses have to be estimated in order to assess premiums and for accumulation control (Probable Maximum Losses calculation). Therefore, the identification of a statistical model able to describe the multivariate joint distribution of flood events in multiple location is necessary. In this context, copulas can be viewed as alternative tools for dealing with multivariate simulations as they allow to formalize dependence structures of random vectors. An application of copula function for flood scenario generation is presented for Australia (Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria) where 100.000 possible flood scenarios covering approximately 15.000 years were simulated.

Guidelines on the diagnosis of noise-induced hearing loss for medicolegal purposes.

PubMed

Coles, R R; Lutman, M E; Buffin, J T

2000-08-01

These guidelines aim to assist in the diagnosis of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) in medicolegal settings. The task is to distinguish between possibility and probability, the legal criterion being 'more probable than not'. It is argued that the amount of NIHL needed to qualify for that diagnosis is that which is reliably measurable and identifiable on the audiogram. The three main requirements for the diagnosis of NIHL are defined: R1, high-frequency hearing impairment; R2, potentially hazardous amount of noise exposure; R3, identifiable high-frequency audiometric notch or bulge. Four modifying factors also need consideration: MF1, the clinical picture; MF2, compatibility with age and noise exposure; MF3, Robinson's criteria for other causation; MF4, complications such as asymmetry, mixed disorder and conductive hearing impairment.

Error-related negativities elicited by monetary loss and cues that predict loss.

PubMed

Dunning, Jonathan P; Hajcak, Greg

2007-11-19

Event-related potential studies have reported error-related negativity following both error commission and feedback indicating errors or monetary loss. The present study examined whether error-related negativities could be elicited by a predictive cue presented prior to both the decision and subsequent feedback in a gambling task. Participants were presented with a cue that indicated the probability of reward on the upcoming trial (0, 50, and 100%). Results showed a negative deflection in the event-related potential in response to loss cues compared with win cues; this waveform shared a similar latency and morphology with the traditional feedback error-related negativity.

Modeling phosphorus losses from soils amended with cattle manure and chemical fertilizers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

While applied manure/fertilizer is an important source of P loss in surface runoff, few models simulate the direct transfer of phosphorus (P) from soil-surface-applied manure/fertilizer to runoff. The SurPhos model was tested with 2008-2010 growing season, daily surface runoff data from clay loam ex...

On Surface Losses in Direct Metal Laser Sintering Printed Millimeter and Submillimeter Waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmberg, Max; Dancila, Dragos; Rydberg, Anders; Hjörvarsson, Björgvin; Jansson, Ulf; Marattukalam, Jithin James; Johansson, Niklas; Andersson, Joakim

2018-02-01

Different lengths of WR3 (220-330 GHz) and WR10 (75-110 GHz) waveguides are fabricated through direct metal laser sintering (DMLS). The losses in these waveguides are measured and modelled using the Huray surface roughness model. The losses in WR3 are around 0.3 dB/mm and in WR10 0.05 dB/mm. The Huray equation model is accounting relatively good for the attenuation in the WR10 waveguide but deviates more in the WR3 waveguide. The model is compared to finite element simulations of the losses assuming an approximate surface structure similar to the resulting one from the DMLS process.

On Surface Losses in Direct Metal Laser Sintering Printed Millimeter and Submillimeter Waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmberg, Max; Dancila, Dragos; Rydberg, Anders; Hjörvarsson, Björgvin; Jansson, Ulf; Marattukalam, Jithin James; Johansson, Niklas; Andersson, Joakim

2018-06-01

Different lengths of WR3 (220-330 GHz) and WR10 (75-110 GHz) waveguides are fabricated through direct metal laser sintering (DMLS). The losses in these waveguides are measured and modelled using the Huray surface roughness model. The losses in WR3 are around 0.3 dB/mm and in WR10 0.05 dB/mm. The Huray equation model is accounting relatively good for the attenuation in the WR10 waveguide but deviates more in the WR3 waveguide. The model is compared to finite element simulations of the losses assuming an approximate surface structure similar to the resulting one from the DMLS process.

Parameterization of N2O5 Reaction Probabilities on the Surface of Particles Containing Ammonium, Sulfate, and Nitrate

EPA Science Inventory

A comprehensive parameterization was developed for the heterogeneous reaction probability (γ) of N₂O₅ as a function of temperature, relative humidity, particle composition, and phase state, for use in advanced air quality models. The reaction probabilities o...

The distribution of ion orbit loss fluxes of ions and energy from the plasma edge across the last closed flux surface into the scrape-off layer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stacey, Weston M.; Schumann, Matthew T.

A more detailed calculation strategy for the evaluation of ion orbit loss of thermalized plasma ions in the edge of tokamaks is presented. In both this and previous papers, the direct loss of particles from internal flux surfaces is calculated from the conservation of canonical angular momentum, energy, and magnetic moment. The previous result that almost all of the ion energy and particle fluxes crossing the last closed flux surface are in the form of ion orbit fluxes is confirmed, and the new result that the distributions of these fluxes crossing the last closed flux surface into the scrape-off layermore » are very strongly peaked about the outboard midplane is demonstrated. Previous results of a preferential loss of counter current particles leading to a co-current intrinsic rotation peaking just inside of the last closed flux surface are confirmed. Various physical details are discussed.« less

Loss aversion, large deviation preferences and optimal portfolio weights for some classes of return processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, Ken; Lobunets, Olena; Suhov, Yuri

2007-05-01

We propose a model of a loss averse investor who aims to maximize his expected wealth under certain constraints. The constraints are that he avoids, with high probability, incurring an (suitably defined) unacceptable loss. The methodology employed comes from the theory of large deviations. We explore a number of fundamental properties of the model and illustrate its desirable features. We demonstrate its utility by analyzing assets that follow some commonly used financial return processes: Fractional Brownian Motion, Jump Diffusion, Variance Gamma and Truncated Lévy.

[Adhesion loss of syrups in a metering glass which consists of a low surface free energy material].

PubMed

Yamamoto, Yoshihisa; Suzuki, Toyofumi; Hashizaki, Kaname; Ogura, Masao; Umeda, Yukiko; Hidaka, Shinji; Fukami, Toshiro; Tomono, Kazuo

2010-08-01

We previously reported a strong positive correlation between syrup viscosity and the rate of syrup loss due to adhesion to a glass metering device. In this study, we examined differences in the surface free energies of metering devices made of different polymeric materials, since reducing adhesion loss to metering devices could improve the efficiency of drug preparation involving highly viscous syrups. Among metering devices made of glass only, glass with a silicone coating (SLC), polypropylene (PP), and polymethylpentene (PMP) the surface free energy of the glass-only metering device was the highest (49.2 mN/m). The adhesion loss obtained for highly viscous syrups in the PP and PMP metering devices was significantly lower than that of the glass metering device. Measurements of syrup contact angles suggested that in metering devices made of PP and PMP, which have low surface free energies, a decrease in the spreading wetting of syrups was a factor in reducing the rate of adhesion loss. Thus irrespective of the syrup viscosity being measured, metering devices produced from materials with low surface free energies can reduce the time required to prepare prescriptions without compromising the accuracy of drug preparation.

Measurement of spin-flip probabilities for ultracold neutrons interacting with nickel phosphorus coated surfaces

DOE PAGES

Tang, Zhaowen; Adamek, Evan Robert; Brandt, Aaron; ...

2016-04-26

In this paper, we report a measurement of the spin-flip probabilities for ultracold neutrons interacting with surfaces coated with nickel phosphorus. For 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on stainless steel, the spin-flip probability per bounce was found to be β NiP on SS = (3.3 +1.8, -5.6) X 10 -6. For 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on aluminum, the spin-flip probability per bounce was found to be β NiP on Al = (3.6 +2.1, -5.9) X 10 -6. For the copper guide used as reference, the spin flip probability per bounce was found to be β Cu =more » (6.7 + 5.0, -2.5) X 10 -6. The results on the nickel phosphorus-coated surfaces may be interpreted as upper limits, yielding β NiP on SS < 6.2 X 10 -6 (90% C.L.) and β NiP on Al < 7.0 X 10 -6 (90% C.L.) for 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on stainless steel and 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on aluminum, respectively. Finally, nickel phosphorus coated stainless steel or aluminum provides a solution when low-cost, mechanically robust, and non-depolarizing UCN guides with a high Fermi potential are needed.« less

Surface runoff and nitrogen (N) loss in a bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens) forest under different fertilization regimes.

PubMed

Zhang, Qichun; Shamsi, Imran Haider; Wang, Jinwen; Song, Qiujin; Xue, Qiaoyun; Yu, Yan; Lin, Xianyong; Hussain, Sayed

2013-07-01

Nitrogen (N) losses from agricultural fields have been extensively studied. In contrast, surface runoff and N losses have rarely been considered for bamboo forests that are widespread in regions such as southern China. The thriving of bamboo industries has led to increasing fertilizer use in bamboo forests. In this study, we evaluated surface runoff and N losses in runoff following different fertilization treatments under field conditions in a bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens) forest in the catchment of Lake Taihu in Jiangsu, China. Under three different fertilization regimes, i.e., control, site-specific nutrient management (SSNM), and farmer's fertilization practice (FFP), the water runoff rate amounted to 356, 361, and 342 m(3) ha(-1) and accounted for 1.91, 1.98, and 1.85% of the water input, respectively, from June 2009 to May 2010. The total N losses via surface runoff ranged from 1.2 to 1.8 kg ha(-1). Compared with FFP, the SSNM treatment reduced total nitrogen (TN) and dissolved nitrogen (DN) losses by 31 and 34%, respectively. The results also showed that variations in N losses depended mainly on runoff fluxes, not N concentrations. Runoff samples collected from all treatments throughout the year showed TN concentrations greater than 0.35 mg L(-1), with the mean TN concentration in the runoff from the FFP treatment reaching 8.97 mg L(-1). The loss of NO3(-)-N was greater than the loss of NH4(+)-N. The total loss of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) reached 23-41% of the corresponding DN. Therefore, DON is likely the main N species in runoff from bamboo forests and should be emphasized in the assessment and management of N losses in bamboo forest.

Disease risk curves.

PubMed

Hughes, G; Burnett, F J; Havis, N D

2013-11-01

Disease risk curves are simple graphical relationships between the probability of need for treatment and evidence related to risk factors. In the context of the present article, our focus is on factors related to the occurrence of disease in crops. Risk is the probability of adverse consequences; specifically in the present context it denotes the chance that disease will reach a threshold level at which crop protection measures can be justified. This article describes disease risk curves that arise when risk is modeled as a function of more than one risk factor, and when risk is modeled as a function of a single factor (specifically the level of disease at an early disease assessment). In both cases, disease risk curves serve as calibration curves that allow the accumulated evidence related to risk to be expressed on a probability scale. When risk is modeled as a function of the level of disease at an early disease assessment, the resulting disease risk curve provides a crop loss assessment model in which the downside is denominated in terms of risk rather than in terms of yield loss.

Depressional wetlands affect watershed hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological functions.

PubMed

Evenson, Grey R; Golden, Heather E; Lane, Charles R; McLaughlin, Daniel L; D'Amico, Ellen

2018-06-01

Depressional wetlands of the extensive U.S. and Canadian Prairie Pothole Region afford numerous ecosystem processes that maintain healthy watershed functioning. However, these wetlands have been lost at a prodigious rate over past decades due to drainage for development, climate effects, and other causes. Options for management entities to protect the existing wetlands, and their functions, may focus on conserving wetlands based on spatial location vis-à-vis a floodplain or on size limitations (e.g., permitting smaller wetlands to be destroyed but not larger wetlands). Yet the effects of such management practices and the concomitant loss of depressional wetlands on watershed-scale hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological functions are largely unknown. Using a hydrological model, we analyzed how different loss scenarios by wetland size and proximal location to the stream network affected watershed storage (i.e., inundation patterns and residence times), connectivity (i.e., streamflow contributing areas), and export (i.e., streamflow) in a large watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. Depressional wetlands store consequential amounts of precipitation and snowmelt. The loss of smaller depressional wetlands (<3.0 ha) substantially decreased landscape-scale inundation heterogeneity, total inundated area, and hydrological residence times. Larger wetlands act as hydrologic "gatekeepers," preventing surface runoff from reaching the stream network, and their modeled loss had a greater effect on streamflow due to changes in watershed connectivity and storage characteristics of larger wetlands. The wetland management scenario based on stream proximity (i.e., protecting wetlands 30 m and ~450 m from the stream) alone resulted in considerable landscape heterogeneity loss and decreased inundated area and residence times. With more snowmelt and precipitation available for runoff with wetland losses, contributing area increased across all loss scenarios. We additionally found that depressional wetlands attenuated peak flows; the probability of increased downstream flooding from wetland loss was also consistent across all loss scenarios. It is evident from this study that optimizing wetland management for one end goal (e.g., protection of large depressional wetlands for flood attenuation) over another (e.g., protecting of small depressional wetlands for biodiversity) may come at a cost for overall watershed hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological resilience, functioning, and integrity. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

MONITORING EROSION OF STONE SURFACES USING TIME-LAPSE AND PTM PHOTOGRAPHY: FIELD STUDY OF A 14TH CENTURY MONASTERY IN YORKSHIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doehne, E.; Pinchin, S.

2009-12-01

Evaluating stone weathering rates and their relationship to environmental fluctuations is an important challenge in understanding the critical zone and also in efforts to prevent the loss of important cultural heritage in stone, such as monuments, sculpture and archaeological sites. Repeat photography has been widely used to evaluate geological processes such as the retreat of glaciers and the weathering of stone surfaces. However, a fundamental difficulty is that the images are often shot under differing lighting conditions, making the interpretation of stone surface loss particularly challenging. Two developments in photographic documentation show promise for improving the situation. One is the use of digital time-lapse methods to provide more frequent images to correlate stone surface loss with ongoing environmental changes. The other is a relatively new method known as polynomial transform mapping (PTM), which integrates multiple photographs taken at different angles to document more comprehensively the texture of stone surfaces. Using Java-based software, the viewer can control the precise angle of the light source in an interpolated, high-quality image. PTM can produce raking light images from any angle, as well as images with ‘normal’ illumination. We present here results based on several years of macro-photography, time-lapse imaging, and PTM imaging of rapidly eroding stone surfaces at the site of Howden Minster in Yorkshire, UK, which suffers from salt weathering. The images show that surface loss is episodic rather than continuous and in some cases is related to unusual environmental conditions, such as high winds and condensation events. Damage was also found to be synchronous, with surface change (flaking, granular disintegration, and loss of flakes) occurring at the same time in different stone blocks. Crystallization pressure from phase transitions in magnesium sulfate salts appears to be the main cause of the loss of stone surfaces.

Property changes induced by the space environment in composite materials on LDEF: Solar array materials passive LDEF experiment A0171 (SAMPLE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

Surface modifications to composite materials induced by long term exposure in low earth orbit (LEO) were dominated by atomic oxygen erosion and micrometeoroid and space debris impacts. As expected, calculated erosion rates were peculiar to material type and within the predicted order of magnitude. Generally, about one ply of the carbon fiber composites was eroded during the 70 month LDEF experiment. Matrix erosion was greater than fiber erosion and was more evident for a polysulfone matrix than for epoxy matrices. Micrometeoroid and space debris impacts resulted in small (less than 1mm) craters and splattered contaminants on all samples. Surfaces became more diffuse and darker with small increases in emissivity and absorption. Tensile strength decreased roughly with thickness loss, and epoxy matrices apparently became slightly embrittled, probably as a result of continued curing under UV and/or electron bombardment. However, changes in the ultimate yield stress of the carbon reinforced epoxy composites correlate neither with weave direction nor fiber type. Unexpected developments were the discovery of new synergistic effects of the space environment in the interaction of atomic oxygen and copious amounts of contamination and in the induced luminescence of many materials.

The role of settling velocity formulation in the determination of gully pot trapping efficiency: comparison between analytical and experimental data.

PubMed

Ciccarello, Annalisa; Bolognesi, Andrea; Maglionico, Marco; Artina, Sandro

2012-01-01

Roadside gully pots are the connecting points between surface runoff and the underground drainage network; therefore they can be considered as the most superficial component of urban drainage systems. Gully pots are supposed to trap particulate matter washed off the catchment surface, but also to collect and convey stormwater into the network. The continuous accumulation of particulate matter results in a progressive loss of the gully pot hydraulic conveyance, thereby increasing the probability of urban flooding during rainstorm events. This study has therefore the objective to determine which variables influence the gully pot capability of retaining solids (efficiency), both experimentally and analytically. Several laboratory tests have been performed on a simple plastic gully pot, with different inflow rates and using both mono and hetero-disperse particle samples. Particular attention has been given to the influence exerted by the way particle settling velocity is expressed: efficiency has been analytically determined by means of multiple settling velocity formulas proposed by various authors and eventually compared to experimental data. Results deriving from the adoption of each single settling velocity formula have been extensively analysed, showing fairly different outcomes.

Surface rupture and vertical deformation associated with 20 May 2016 M6 Petermann Ranges earthquake, Northern Territory, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Ryan; Clark, Dan; King, Tamarah; Quigley, Mark

2017-04-01

Surface-rupturing earthquakes in stable continental regions (SCRs) occur infrequently, though when they occur in heavily populated regions the damage and loss of life can be severe (e.g., 2001 Bhuj earthquake). Quantifying the surface-rupture characteristics of these low-probability events is therefore important, both to improve understanding of the on- and off-fault deformation field near the rupture trace and to provide additional constraints on earthquake magnitude to rupture length and displacement, which are critical inputs for seismic hazard calculations. This investigation focuses on the 24 August 2016 M6.0 Petermann Ranges earthquake, Northern Territory, Australia. We use 0.3-0.5 m high-resolution optical Worldview satellite imagery to map the trace of the surface rupture associated with the earthquake. From our mapping, we are able to trace the rupture over a length of 20 km, trending NW, and exhibiting apparent north-side-up motion. To quantify the magnitude of vertical surface deformation, we use stereo Worldview images processed using NASA Ames Stereo Pipeline software to generate pre- and post-earthquake digital terrain models with a spatial resolution of 1.5 to 2 m. The surface scarp is apparent in much of the post-event digital terrain model. Initial efforts to difference the pre- and post-event digital terrain models yield noisy results, though we detect vertical deformation of 0.2 to 0.6 m over length scales of 100 m to 1 km from the mapped trace of the rupture. Ongoing efforts to remove ramps and perform spatial smoothing will improve our understanding of the extent and pattern of vertical deformation. Additionally, we will compare our results with InSAR and field measurements obtained following the earthquake.

Postural control assessment in students with normal hearing and sensorineural hearing loss.

PubMed

Melo, Renato de Souza; Lemos, Andrea; Macky, Carla Fabiana da Silva Toscano; Raposo, Maria Cristina Falcão; Ferraz, Karla Mônica

2015-01-01

Children with sensorineural hearing loss can present with instabilities in postural control, possibly as a consequence of hypoactivity of their vestibular system due to internal ear injury. To assess postural control stability in students with normal hearing (i.e., listeners) and with sensorineural hearing loss, and to compare data between groups, considering gender and age. This cross-sectional study evaluated the postural control of 96 students, 48 listeners and 48 with sensorineural hearing loss, aged between 7 and 18 years, of both genders, through the Balance Error Scoring Systems scale. This tool assesses postural control in two sensory conditions: stable surface and unstable surface. For statistical data analysis between groups, the Wilcoxon test for paired samples was used. Students with hearing loss showed more instability in postural control than those with normal hearing, with significant differences between groups (stable surface, unstable surface) (p<0.001). Students with sensorineural hearing loss showed greater instability in the postural control compared to normal hearing students of the same gender and age. Copyright © 2014 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

A Simple Formula to Calculate Shallow-Water Transmission Loss by Means of a Least-Squares Surface Fit Technique.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

HASTRUP , T REAL UNCLASSIFIED SACLAATCEN- SM-139 N SACLANTCEN Memorandum SM -139 -LEFW SACLANT ASW RESEARCH CENTRE ~ MEMORANDUM A SIMPLE FORMULA TO...CALCULATE SHALLOW-WATER TRANSMISSION LOSS BY MEANS OF A LEAST- SQUARES SURFACE FIT TECHNIQUE 7-sallby OLE F. HASTRUP and TUNCAY AKAL I SEPTEMBER 1980 NORTH...JRANSi4ISSION LOSS/ BY MEANS OF A LEAST-SQUARES SURFACE fIT TECHNIQUE, C T ~e F./ Hastrup .0TnaAa ()1 Sep 8 This memorandum has been prepared within the

Greenland ice sheet surface temperature, melt and mass loss: 2000-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Luthcke, S.B.; DiGirolamo, N.E.

2008-01-01

A daily time series of 'clear-sky' surface temperature has been compiled of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using 1 km resolution moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) maps from 2000 to 2006. We also used mass-concentration data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to study mass change in relationship to surface melt from 2003 to 2006. The mean LST of the GIS increased during the study period by ???0.27??Ca-1. The increase was especially notable in the northern half of the ice sheet during the winter months. Melt-season length and timing were also studied in each of the six major drainage basins. Rapid (<15 days) and sustained mass loss below 2000 m elevation was triggered in 2004 and 2005 as recorded by GRACE when surface melt begins. Initiation of large-scale surface melt was followed rapidly by mass loss. This indicates that surface meltwater is flowing rapidly to the base of the ice sheet, causing acceleration of outlet glaciers, thus highlighting the metastability of parts of the GIS and the vulnerability of the ice sheet to air-temperature increases. If air temperatures continue to rise over Greenland, increased surface melt will play a large role in ice-sheet mass loss.

Oxidation and thermal reduction of the Cu(1 0 0) surface as studied using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazleev, N. G.; Nadesalingam, M. P.; Maddox, W.; Mukherjee, S.; Rajeshwar, K.; Weiss, A. H.

2010-01-01

Changes in the surface of an oxidized Cu(1 0 0) single crystal resulting from vacuum annealing have been investigated using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES). PAES measurements show a large increase in the intensity of the annihilation induced Cu M 2,3VV Auger peak as the sample is subjected to a series of isochronal anneals in vacuum up to annealing temperature 300 °C. The intensity then decreases monotonically as the annealing temperature is increased to ˜600 °C. Experimental probabilities of annihilation of surface-trapped positrons with Cu 3p and O 1s core-level electrons are estimated from the measured intensities of the positron annihilation induced Cu M 2,3VV and O KLL Auger transitions. Experimental PAES results are analyzed by performing calculations of positron surface states and annihilation probabilities of surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons taking into account the charge redistribution at the surface, surface reconstructions, and electron-positron correlations effects. The effects of oxygen adsorption on localization of positron surface state wave function and annihilation characteristics are also analyzed. Possible explanation is proposed for the observed behavior of the intensity of positron annihilation induced Cu M 2,3VV and O KLL Auger peaks and probabilities of annihilation of surface-trapped positrons with Cu 3p and O 1s core-level electrons with changes of the annealing temperature.

Probability of loss of assured safety in temperature dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig

2004-12-01

Relationships to determine the probability that a weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) safety system will fail to function as intended in a fire environment are investigated. In the systems under study, failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system is intended to render the overall system inoperational and thus prevent the possible occurrence of accidents with potentially serious consequences. Formal developments of the probability that the WL system fails to deactivate the overall system before failure of the SL system (i.e., the probability of loss of assured safety, PLOAS) are presented for several WWSL configurations: (i) onemore » WL, one SL, (ii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of any SL before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, (iii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of all SLs before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, and (iv) multiple WLs, multiple SLs and multiple sublinks in each SL with failure of any sublink constituting failure of the associated SL and failure of all SLs before failure of any WL constituting failure of the safety system. The indicated probabilities derive from time-dependent temperatures in the WL/SL system and variability (i.e., aleatory uncertainty) in the temperatures at which the individual components of this system fail and are formally defined as multidimensional integrals. Numerical procedures based on quadrature (i.e., trapezoidal rule, Simpson's rule) and also on Monte Carlo techniques (i.e., simple random sampling, importance sampling) are described and illustrated for the evaluation of these integrals. Example uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for PLOAS involving the representation of uncertainty (i.e., epistemic uncertainty) with probability theory and also with evidence theory are presented.« less

Prevalence and Correlates of Sleep Problems in Adult Israeli Jews Exposed to Actual or Threatened Terrorist or Rocket Attacks

PubMed Central

Palmieri, Patrick A.; Chipman, Katie J.; Canetti, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J.; Hobfoll, Stevan E.

2010-01-01

Study Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of, and to identify correlates of clinically significant sleep problems in adult Israeli citizens exposed to chronic terrorism and war trauma or threat thereof. Methods: A population-based, cross-sectional study of 1001 adult Israeli citizens interviewed by phone between July 15 and August 26, 2008. The phone survey was conducted in Hebrew and assessed demographics, trauma/stressor exposure, probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), probable depression, and sleep problems. Probable PTSD and depression were assessed with the PTSD Symptom Scale (PSS) and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), respectively, following DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. Sleep problems in the past month were assessed with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), on which a global composite score ≥ 6 indicates a clinical-level sleep problem. Results: Prevalence of probable PTSD and depression was 5.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Prevalence of clinically significant sleep problems was 37.4% overall, but was significantly higher for probable PTSD (81.8%) and probable depression (79.3%) subgroups. Independent correlates of poor sleep included being female, older, less educated, experiencing major life stressors, and experiencing psychosocial resource loss. Psychosocial resource loss due to terrorist attacks emerged as the strongest potentially modifiable risk factor for sleep problems. Conclusions: Sleep problems are common among Israeli adults living under chronic traumatic threat and trauma exposure. Given the continuing threat of war, interventions that bolster psychosocial resources may play an important role in preventing or alleviating sleep problems in this population. Citation: Palmieri PA; Chipman KJ; Canetti D; Johnson RJ; Hobfoll SE. Prevalence and correlates of sleep problems in adult Israeli Jews exposed to actual or threatened terrorist or rocket attacks. J Clin Sleep Med 2010;6(6):557-564. PMID:21206544

Alternative diagnostic strategies for coronary artery disease in women: demonstration of the usefulness and efficiency of probability analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melin, J.A.; Wijns, W.; Vanbutsele, R.J.

Alternative strategies using conditional probability analysis for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) were examined in 93 infarct-free women presenting with chest pain. Another group of 42 consecutive female patients was prospectively analyzed. For this latter group, the physician had access to the pretest and posttest probability of CAD before coronary angiography. These 135 women all underwent stress electrocardiographic, thallium scintigraphic, and coronary angiographic examination. The pretest and posttest probabilities of coronary disease were derived from a computerized Bayesian algorithm. Probability estimates were calculated by the four following hypothetical strategies: SO, in which history, including risk factors, was considered;more » S1, in which history and stress electrocardiographic results were considered; S2, in which history and stress electrocardiographic and stress thallium scintigraphic results were considered; and S3, in which history and stress electrocardiographic results were used, but in which stress scintigraphic results were considered only if the poststress probability of CAD was between 10% and 90%, i.e., if a sufficient level of diagnostic certainty could not be obtained with the electrocardiographic results alone. The strategies were compared with respect to accuracy with the coronary angiogram as the standard. For both groups of women, S2 and S3 were found to be the most accurate in predicting the presence or absence of coronary disease (p less than .05). However, it was found with use of S3 that more than one-third of the thallium scintigrams could have been avoided without loss of accuracy. It was also found that diagnostic catheterization performed to exclude CAD as a diagnosis could have been avoided in half of the patients without loss of accuracy.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)« less

Studies Of Oxidation And Thermal Reduction Of The Cu(100) Surface Using Positron Annihilation Induced Auger Electron Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazleev, N. G.; Nadesalingam, M. P.; Maddox, W.; Weiss, A. H.

2011-06-01

Positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES) measurements from the surface of an oxidized Cu(100) single crystal show a large increase in the intensity of the annihilation induced Cu M2,3VV Auger peak as the sample is subjected to a series of isochronal anneals in vacuum up to annealing temperature 300 °C. The PAES intensity then decreases monotonically as the annealing temperature is increased to ˜550 °C. Experimental positron annihilation probabilities with Cu 3p and O 1s core electrons are estimated from the measured intensities of the positron annihilation induced Cu M2,3VV and O KLL Auger transitions. PAES results are analyzed by performing calculations of positron surface states and annihilation probabilities of the surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons taking into account the charge redistribution at the surface and various surface structures associated with low and high oxygen coverages. The variations in atomic structure and chemical composition of the topmost layers of the oxidized Cu(100) surface are found to affect localization and spatial extent of the positron surface state wave function. The computed positron binding energy and annihilation characteristics reveal their sensitivity to charge transfer effects, atomic structure and chemical composition of the topmost layers of the oxidized Cu(100) surface. Theoretical positron annihilation probabilities with Cu 3p and O 1s core electrons computed for the oxidized Cu(100) surface are compared with experimental ones. The obtained results provide a demonstration of thermal reduction of the copper oxide surface after annealing at 300 °C followed by re-oxidation of the Cu(100) surface at higher annealing temperatures presumably due to diffusion of subsurface oxygen to the surface.

Studies Of Oxidation And Thermal Reduction Of The Cu(100) Surface Using Positron Annihilation Induced Auger Electron Spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fazleev, N. G.; Department of Physics, Kazan State University, Kazan 420008; Nadesalingam, M. P.

2011-06-01

Positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES) measurements from the surface of an oxidized Cu(100) single crystal show a large increase in the intensity of the annihilation induced Cu M2,3VV Auger peak as the sample is subjected to a series of isochronal anneals in vacuum up to annealing temperature 300 deg. C. The PAES intensity then decreases monotonically as the annealing temperature is increased to {approx}550 deg. C. Experimental positron annihilation probabilities with Cu 3p and O 1s core electrons are estimated from the measured intensities of the positron annihilation induced Cu M{sub 2,3}VV and O KLL Auger transitions. PAESmore » results are analyzed by performing calculations of positron surface states and annihilation probabilities of the surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons taking into account the charge redistribution at the surface and various surface structures associated with low and high oxygen coverages. The variations in atomic structure and chemical composition of the topmost layers of the oxidized Cu(100) surface are found to affect localization and spatial extent of the positron surface state wave function. The computed positron binding energy and annihilation characteristics reveal their sensitivity to charge transfer effects, atomic structure and chemical composition of the topmost layers of the oxidized Cu(100) surface. Theoretical positron annihilation probabilities with Cu 3p and O 1s core electrons computed for the oxidized Cu(100) surface are compared with experimental ones. The obtained results provide a demonstration of thermal reduction of the copper oxide surface after annealing at 300 deg. C followed by re-oxidation of the Cu(100) surface at higher annealing temperatures presumably due to diffusion of subsurface oxygen to the surface.« less

Trapping dynamics of xenon on Pt(111)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumainayagam, Christopher R.; Madix, Robert J.; Mcmaster, Mark C.; Suzawa, Valerie M.; Tully, John C.

1990-02-01

The dynamics of Xe trapping on Pt(111) was studied using supersonic atomic beam techniques. Initial trapping probabilities ( S0) were measured directly as a function of incident translational energy ( EinT) and angle of incidence (θ i) at a surface temperature ( Tins) 95 K. The initial trapping probability decreases smoothly with increasing ET cosθ i;, rather than ET cos 2θ i, suggesting participation of parallel momentum in the trapping process. Accordingly, the measured initial trapping probability falls off more slowly with increasing incident translational energy than predicted by one-dimensional theories. This finding is in near agreement with previous mean translational energy measurements for Xe desorbing near the Pt(111) surface normal, assuming detailed balance applies. Three-dimensional stochastic classical trajectory calculations presented herein also exhibit the importance of tangential momentum in trapping and satisfactorily reproduce the experimental initial trapping probabilities.

Methodology of risk assessment of loss of water resources due to climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Israfilov, Yusif; Israfilov, Rauf; Guliyev, Hatam; Afandiyev, Galib

2016-04-01

For sustainable development and management of rational use of water resources of Azerbaijan Republic it is actual to forecast their changes taking into account different scenarios of climate changes and assessment of possible risks of loss of sections of water resources. The major part of the Azerbaijani territory is located in the arid climate and the vast majority of water is used in the national economic production. An optimal use of conditional groundwater and surface water is of great strategic importance for economy of the country in terms of lack of common water resources. Low annual rate of sediments, high evaporation and complex natural and hydrogeological conditions prevent sustainable formation of conditioned resources of ground and surface water. In addition, reserves of fresh water resources are not equally distributed throughout the Azerbaijani territory. The lack of the common water balance creates tension in the rational use of fresh water resources in various sectors of the national economy, especially in agriculture, and as a result, in food security of the republic. However, the fresh water resources of the republic have direct proportional dependence on climatic factors. 75-85% of the resources of ground stratum-pore water of piedmont plains and fracture-vein water of mountain regions are formed by the infiltration of rainfall and condensate water. Changes of climate parameters involve changes in the hydrological cycle of the hydrosphere and as a rule, are reflected on their resources. Forecasting changes of water resources of the hydrosphere with different scenarios of climate change in regional mathematical models allowed estimating the extent of their relationship and improving the quality of decisions. At the same time, it is extremely necessary to obtain additional data for risk assessment and management to reduce water resources for a detailed analysis, forecasting the quantitative and qualitative parameters of resources, and also for optimization the use of water resources. In this regard, we have developed the methodology of risk assessment including statistical fuzzy analysis of the relationship "probability-consequences", classification of probabilities, the consequences on degree of severity and risk. The current methodology allow providing the possibility of practical use of the obtained results and giving effectual help in the sustainable development and reduction of risk degree of optimal use of water resources of the republic and, as a consequence, the national strategy of economic development.

Loss of the Dixmude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckener, Hugo

1924-01-01

The causes of the destruction of the Dixmude are discussed and some conclusions are drawn. The author believes a gasoline fire instead of a lightning strike was probably responsible, but the public believes otherwise.

Three-dimensional quantitative analysis of adhesive remnants and enamel loss resulting from debonding orthodontic molar tubes

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Aims Presenting a new method for direct, quantitative analysis of enamel surface. Measurement of adhesive remnants and enamel loss resulting from debonding molar tubes. Material and methods Buccal surfaces of fifteen extracted human molars were directly scanned with an optic blue-light 3D scanner to the nearest 2 μm. After 20 s etching molar tubes were bonded and after 24 h storing in 0.9% saline - debonded. Then 3D scanning was repeated. Superimposition and comparison were proceeded and shape alterations of the entire objects were analyzed using specialized computer software. Residual adhesive heights as well as enamel loss depths have been obtained for the entire buccal surfaces. Residual adhesive volume and enamel loss volume have been calculated for every tooth. Results The maximum height of adhesive remaining on enamel surface was 0.76 mm and the volume on particular teeth ranged from 0.047 mm3 to 4.16 mm3. The median adhesive remnant volume was 0.988 mm3. Mean depths of enamel loss for particular teeth ranged from 0.0076 mm to 0.0416 mm. Highest maximum depth of enamel loss was 0.207 mm. Median volume of enamel loss was 0.104 mm3 and maximum volume was 1.484 mm3. Conclusions Blue-light 3D scanning is able to provide direct precise scans of the enamel surface, which can be superimposed in order to calculate shape alterations. Debonding molar tubes leaves a certain amount of adhesive remnants on the enamel, however the interface fracture pattern varies for particular teeth and areas of enamel loss are present as well. PMID:25208969

Three-dimensional quantitative analysis of adhesive remnants and enamel loss resulting from debonding orthodontic molar tubes.

PubMed

Janiszewska-Olszowska, Joanna; Tandecka, Katarzyna; Szatkiewicz, Tomasz; Sporniak-Tutak, Katarzyna; Grocholewicz, Katarzyna

2014-09-10

Presenting a new method for direct, quantitative analysis of enamel surface. Measurement of adhesive remnants and enamel loss resulting from debonding molar tubes. Buccal surfaces of fifteen extracted human molars were directly scanned with an optic blue-light 3D scanner to the nearest 2 μm. After 20 s etching molar tubes were bonded and after 24 h storing in 0.9% saline - debonded. Then 3D scanning was repeated. Superimposition and comparison were proceeded and shape alterations of the entire objects were analyzed using specialized computer software. Residual adhesive heights as well as enamel loss depths have been obtained for the entire buccal surfaces. Residual adhesive volume and enamel loss volume have been calculated for every tooth. The maximum height of adhesive remaining on enamel surface was 0.76 mm and the volume on particular teeth ranged from 0.047 mm3 to 4.16 mm3. The median adhesive remnant volume was 0.988 mm3. Mean depths of enamel loss for particular teeth ranged from 0.0076 mm to 0.0416 mm. Highest maximum depth of enamel loss was 0.207 mm. Median volume of enamel loss was 0.104 mm3 and maximum volume was 1.484 mm3. Blue-light 3D scanning is able to provide direct precise scans of the enamel surface, which can be superimposed in order to calculate shape alterations. Debonding molar tubes leaves a certain amount of adhesive remnants on the enamel, however the interface fracture pattern varies for particular teeth and areas of enamel loss are present as well.

Fast algorithm for probabilistic bone edge detection (FAPBED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scepanovic, Danilo; Kirshtein, Joshua; Jain, Ameet K.; Taylor, Russell H.

2005-04-01

The registration of preoperative CT to intra-operative reality systems is a crucial step in Computer Assisted Orthopedic Surgery (CAOS). The intra-operative sensors include 3D digitizers, fiducials, X-rays and Ultrasound (US). FAPBED is designed to process CT volumes for registration to tracked US data. Tracked US is advantageous because it is real time, noninvasive, and non-ionizing, but it is also known to have inherent inaccuracies which create the need to develop a framework that is robust to various uncertainties, and can be useful in US-CT registration. Furthermore, conventional registration methods depend on accurate and absolute segmentation. Our proposed probabilistic framework addresses the segmentation-registration duality, wherein exact segmentation is not a prerequisite to achieve accurate registration. In this paper, we develop a method for fast and automatic probabilistic bone surface (edge) detection in CT images. Various features that influence the likelihood of the surface at each spatial coordinate are combined using a simple probabilistic framework, which strikes a fair balance between a high-level understanding of features in an image and the low-level number crunching of standard image processing techniques. The algorithm evaluates different features for detecting the probability of a bone surface at each voxel, and compounds the results of these methods to yield a final, low-noise, probability map of bone surfaces in the volume. Such a probability map can then be used in conjunction with a similar map from tracked intra-operative US to achieve accurate registration. Eight sample pelvic CT scans were used to extract feature parameters and validate the final probability maps. An un-optimized fully automatic Matlab code runs in five minutes per CT volume on average, and was validated by comparison against hand-segmented gold standards. The mean probability assigned to nonzero surface points was 0.8, while nonzero non-surface points had a mean value of 0.38 indicating clear identification of surface points on average. The segmentation was also sufficiently crisp, with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) value of 1.51 voxels.

Thermo-Oxidative Stability of Graphite/PMR-15 Composites: Effect of Fiber Surface Modification on Composite Shear Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madhukar, Madhu S.; Bowles, Kenneth J.; Papadopolous, Demetrios S.

1994-01-01

Experiments were conducted to establish a correlation between the weight loss of a polyimide (PMR- 15) matrix and graphite fibers and the in-plane shear properties of their unidirectional composites subjected to different isothermal aging times up to 1000 hr at 316 C. The role of fiber surface treatment on the composite degradation during the thermo-oxidative aging was investigated by using A4 graphite fibers with three surface modifications: untreated (AU-4), surface treated (AS-4), and surface treated and sized with an epoxy-compatible sizing (AS-4G). The weight loss of the matrix fibers, and composites was determined during the aging. The effect of thermal aging was seen in all the fiber samples in terms of weight loss and reduction in fiber diameter. Calculated values of weight loss fluxes for different surfaces of rectangular unidirectional composite plates showed that the largest weight loss occurred at those cut surfaces where fibers were perpendicular to the surface. Consequently, the largest amount of damage was also noted on these cut surfaces. Optical observation of the neat matrix and composite plates subjected to different aging times revealed that the degradation (such as matrix microcracking and void growth) occurred in a thin surface layer near the specimen edges. The in-plane shear modulus of the composites was unaffected by the fiber surface treatment and the thermal aging. The shear strength of the composites with the untreated fibers was the lowest and it decreased with aging. A fracture surface examination of the composites with untreated fibers suggested that the weak interface allowed the oxidation reaction to proceed along the interface and thus expose the inner material to further oxidation. The results indicated that the fiber-matrix interface affected the composite degradation process during its thermal aging and that the the weak interface accelerated the composite degradation.

Interactions Between Wind Erosion, Vegetation Structure, and Soil Stability in Groundwater Dependent Plant Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vest, K. R.; Elmore, A. J.; Okin, G. S.

2009-12-01

Desertification is a human induced global phenomenon causing a loss of biodiversity and ecosystem productivity. Semi-arid grasslands are vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts (i.e., groundwater pumping and surface water diversion) that decrease vegetation cover and increase bare soil area leading to a greater probability of soil erosion, potentially enhancing feedback processes associated with desertification. To enhance our understanding of interactions between anthropogenic, physical, and biological factors causing desertification, this study used a combination of modeling and field observations to examine the relationship between chronic groundwater pumping and vegetation cover change and its effects on soil erosion and stability. The work was conducted in Owens Valley California, where a long history of groundwater pumping and surface water diversion has lead to documented vegetation changes. The work examined hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical factors across thirteen sites in Owens Valley. We analyzed soil stability, vegetation and gap size, soil organic carbon, and we also installed Big Spring Number Eight (BSNE) catchers to calculate mass transport of aeolian sediment across sites. Mass transport calculations were used to validate a new wind erosion model that represents the effect of porous vegetation on surface windshear velocity. Results across two field seasons show that the model can be used to predict mass transport, and areas with increased groundwater pumping show a greater susceptibility to erosion. Sediment collected in BSNE catchers was positively correlated with site gap size. Additionally, areas with larger gap sizes have a greater threshold shear velocity and soil stability, yet mass transport was greater at these sites than at sites with smaller gap sizes. Although modeling is complicated by spatial variation in multiple model parameters (e.g., gap size, threshold shear velocity in gaps), our results support the hypothesis that soils with high organic matter are being eroded following the loss of vegetation cover due to groundwater decline leaving behind bare soil surfaces with less fertility hampering vegetation reestablishment. Desertification in this system is apparently easily initiated through groundwater decline due to the high friability of these meadow soils.

Surface physicochemical properties and decay of the low-lying isomer in the 229Th nucleus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borisyuk, P. V.; Kurel'chuk, U. N.; Vasil'ev, O. S.; Troyan, V. I.; Lebedinskii, Yu Yu; Tkalya, E. V.

2018-05-01

The effect of the 229Th nucleus proximity to the CsI surface on the decay probability of its anomalously low lying isomeric level is studied. Results of experimental and theoretical studies show that the CsI surface does not produce chemical bonding with Th and does not noticeably change its valence shells. Hence, it is an optimal substrate for measuring the probability of the 229Th isomer state decay via internal electron conversion. The half-life of the 229Thm isomer in the thorium atom is calculated for neutral chemical environment.

Low energy positrons as probes of reconstructed semiconductor surfaces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazleev, Nail G.; Weiss, Alex H.

2007-03-01

Positron probes of semiconductor surfaces that play a fundamental role in modern science and technology are capable to non-destructively provide information that is both unique to the probe and complimentary to that extracted using other more standard techniques. We discuss recent progress in studies of the reconstructed Si(100), Si(111), Ge(100), and Ge(111) surfaces, clean and exposed to hydrogen and oxygen, using a surface characterization technique, Positron-Annihilation-Induced Auger-Electron Spectroscopy (PAES). Experimental PAES results are analyzed by performing first-principles calculations of positron surface states and annihilation probabilities of surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons for the reconstructed surfaces, taking into account discrete lattice effects, the electronic reorganization due to bonding, and charge redistribution effects at the surface. Effects of the hydrogen and oxygen adsorption on semiconductor surfaces on localization of positron surface state wave functions and annihilation characteristics are also analyzed. Theoretical calculations confirm that PAES intensities, which are proportional to annihilation probabilities of the surface trapped positrons that results in a core hole, are sensitive to the crystal face, surface structure and elemental content of the semiconductors.

Dry eye disease and work productivity loss in visual display users: the Osaka study.

PubMed

Uchino, Miki; Uchino, Yuichi; Dogru, Murat; Kawashima, Motoko; Yokoi, Norihiko; Komuro, Aoi; Sonomura, Yukiko; Kato, Hiroaki; Kinoshita, Shigeru; Schaumberg, Debra A; Tsubota, Kazuo

2014-02-01

To estimate the impact of dry eye disease (DED) on work performance and productivity in office workers using visual display terminals (VDTs). Cross-sectional study. Six hundred seventy-two Japanese young and middle-aged office workers using VDTs completed a questionnaire that was designed to measured at-work performance deficits and productivity losses using the Japanese version of the Work Limitations Questionnaire, completed by e-mail. Using the Japanese dry eye diagnostic criteria, respondents were classified into 3 groups: definite DED, probable DED, and non DED. Of the 672 office workers, 553 subjects (82.3%), including 366 men and 187 women, completed the questionnaire and underwent clinical evaluation. As for the total workplace productivity loss, the non DED group demonstrated a loss of 3.56%, those with probable DED demonstrated a loss of 4.06%, and those with definite DED demonstrated a loss of 4.82%, indicating significantly worse performance and productivity (P = .014, trend test). For the 4 subscales, DED was associated with significantly lower on-the-job time management (P = .009, trend test) and combined mental performance and interpersonal functioning (P = .011, trend test). After controlling for age, sex, VDT working hours, and diagnosis of DED, time management, physical demands, and mental and interpersonal functioning showed a significant relationship to DED (each P > .05). Annual DED productivity losses were estimated to be $6160 per employee when measured by total production and $1178 per employee calculated by wage. This study indicated that there is a significant impact of DED on the total productivity of Japanese VDT users. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of several methods of applying sewage effluent to forested soils in the winter.

Treesearch

Alfred Ray Harris

1978-01-01

Surface application methods result in heat loss, deep soil frost, and surface ice accumulations; subsurface methods decrease heat loss and produce shallower frost. Distribution of effluent within the frozen soil is a function of surface application methods, piping due to macropores and biopores, and water movement due to temperature gradients. Nitrate is not...

Variable carbon losses from recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands.

PubMed

Konecny, Kristina; Ballhorn, Uwe; Navratil, Peter; Jubanski, Juilson; Page, Susan E; Tansey, Kevin; Hooijer, Aljosja; Vernimmen, Ronald; Siegert, Florian

2016-04-01

Tropical peatland fires play a significant role in the context of global warming through emissions of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. However, the state of knowledge on carbon loss from these fires is still poorly developed with few studies reporting the associated mass of peat consumed. Furthermore, spatial and temporal variations in burn depth have not been previously quantified. This study presents the first spatially explicit investigation of fire-driven tropical peat loss and its variability. An extensive airborne Light Detection and Ranging data set was used to develop a prefire peat surface modelling methodology, enabling the spatially differentiated quantification of burned area depth over the entire burned area. We observe a strong interdependence between burned area depth, fire frequency and distance to drainage canals. For the first time, we show that relative burned area depth decreases over the first four fire events and is constant thereafter. Based on our results, we revise existing peat and carbon loss estimates for recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands. We suggest values for the dry mass of peat fuel consumed that are 206 t ha(-1) for initial fires, reducing to 115 t ha(-1) for second, 69 t ha(-1) for third and 23 t ha(-1) for successive fires, which are 58-7% of the current IPCC Tier 1 default value for all fires. In our study area, this results in carbon losses of 114, 64, 38 and 13 t C ha(-1) for first to fourth fires, respectively. Furthermore, we show that with increasing proximity to drainage canals both burned area depth and the probability of recurrent fires increase and present equations explaining burned area depth as a function of distance to drainage canal. This improved knowledge enables a more accurate approach to emissions accounting and will support IPCC Tier 2 reporting of fire emissions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Runoff loss of soil mineral nitrogen and its relationship with grass coverage on Loess slope land].

PubMed

Zhang, Yali; Li, Huai'en; Zhang, Xingchang; Xiao, Bo

2006-12-01

In a simulated rainfall experiment on Loess slope land, this paper determined the rainfall, surface runoff and the effective depth of interaction (EDI) between rainfall and soil mineral nitrogen, and studied the effects of grass coverage on the EDI and the runoff loss of soil mineral nitrogen. The results showed that with the increase of EDI, soil nitrogen in deeper layers could be released into surface runoff through dissolution and desorption. The higher the grass coverage, the deeper the EDI was. Grass coverage promoted the interaction between surface runoff and surface soil. On the slope land with 60%, 80% and 100% of grass coverage, the mean content of runoff mineral nitrogen increased by 34.52%, 32.67% and 6.00%, while surface runoff decreased by 4.72%, 9.84% and 12.89%, and eroded sediment decreased by 83.55%, 87.11% and 89.01%, respectively, compared with bare slope land. The total runoff loss of soil mineral nitrogen on the lands with 60%, 80%, and 100% of grass coverage was 95.73%, 109.04%, and 84.05% of that on bare land, respectively. Grass cover had dual effects on the surface runoff of soil mineral nitrogen. On one hand, it enhanced the influx of soil mineral nitrogen to surface runoff, and on the other hand, it markedly decreased the runoff, resulting in the decrease of soil mineral nitrogen loss through runoff and sediment. These two distinct factors codetermined the total runoff loss of soil mineral nitrogen.

The Robustness of Plant-Pollinator Assemblages: Linking Plant Interaction Patterns and Sensitivity to Pollinator Loss

PubMed Central

Astegiano, Julia; Massol, François; Vidal, Mariana Morais; Cheptou, Pierre-Olivier; Guimarães, Paulo R.

2015-01-01

Most flowering plants depend on pollinators to reproduce. Thus, evaluating the robustness of plant-pollinator assemblages to species loss is a major concern. How species interaction patterns are related to species sensitivity to partner loss may influence the robustness of plant-pollinator assemblages. In plants, both reproductive dependence on pollinators (breeding system) and dispersal ability may modulate plant sensitivity to pollinator loss. For instance, species with strong dependence (e.g. dioecious species) and low dispersal (e.g. seeds dispersed by gravity) may be the most sensitive to pollinator loss. We compared the interaction patterns of plants differing in dependence on pollinators and dispersal ability in a meta-dataset comprising 192 plant species from 13 plant-pollinator networks. In addition, network robustness was compared under different scenarios representing sequences of plant extinctions associated with plant sensitivity to pollinator loss. Species with different dependence on pollinators and dispersal ability showed similar levels of generalization. Although plants with low dispersal ability interacted with more generalized pollinators, low-dispersal plants with strong dependence on pollinators (i.e. the most sensitive to pollinator loss) interacted with more particular sets of pollinators (i.e. shared a low proportion of pollinators with other plants). Only two assemblages showed lower robustness under the scenario considering plant generalization, dependence on pollinators and dispersal ability than under the scenario where extinction sequences only depended on plant generalization (i.e. where higher generalization level was associated with lower probability of extinction). Overall, our results support the idea that species generalization and network topology may be good predictors of assemblage robustness to species loss, independently of plant dispersal ability and breeding system. In contrast, since ecological specialization among partners may increase the probability of disruption of interactions, the fact that the plants most sensitive to pollinator loss interacted with more particular pollinator assemblages suggest that the persistence of these plants and their pollinators might be highly compromised. PMID:25646762

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Eigenbrod, F; Bell, V A; Davies, H N; Heinemeyer, A; Armsworth, P R; Gaston, K J

2011-11-07

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Eigenbrod, F.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.; Heinemeyer, A.; Armsworth, P. R.; Gaston, K. J.

2011-01-01

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services—flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban ‘sprawl’ will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the ‘densification’ urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization. PMID:21389035

Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.

PubMed

Little, Christopher M; Urban, Nathan M; Oppenheimer, Michael

2013-02-26

Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.

Energy dependence of the trapping of uranium atoms by aluminum oxide surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Librecht, K. G.

1979-01-01

The energy dependence of the trapping probability for sputtered U-235 atoms striking an oxidized aluminum collector surface at energies between 1 eV and 184 eV was measured. At the lowest energies, approximately 10% of the uranium atoms are not trapped, while above 10 eV essentially all of them stick. Trapping probabilities averaged over the sputtered energy distribution for uranium incident on gold and mica are also presented.

Circular linkages between soil biodiversity, fertility and plant productivity are limited to topsoil at the continental scale.

PubMed

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Powell, Jeff R; Hamonts, Kelly; Reith, Frank; Mele, Pauline; Brown, Mark V; Dennis, Paul G; Ferrari, Belinda C; Fitzgerald, Anna; Young, Andrew; Singh, Brajesh K; Bissett, Andrew

2017-08-01

The current theoretical framework suggests that tripartite positive feedback relationships between soil biodiversity, fertility and plant productivity are universal. However, empirical evidence for these relationships at the continental scale and across different soil depths is lacking. We investigate the continental-scale relationships between the diversity of microbial and invertebrate-based soil food webs, fertility and above-ground plant productivity at 289 sites and two soil depths, that is 0-10 and 20-30 cm, across Australia. Soil biodiversity, fertility and plant productivity are strongly positively related in surface soils. Conversely, in the deeper soil layer, the relationships between soil biodiversity, fertility and plant productivity weaken considerably, probably as a result of a reduction in biodiversity and fertility with depth. Further modeling suggested that strong positive associations among soil biodiversity-fertility and fertility-plant productivity are limited to the upper soil layer (0-10 cm), after accounting for key factors, such as distance from the equator, altitude, climate and physicochemical soil properties. These findings highlight the importance of surface soil biodiversity for soil fertility, and suggest that any loss of surface soil could potentially break the links between soil biodiversity-fertility and/or fertility-plant productivity, which can negatively impact nutrient cycling and food production, upon which future generations depend. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Widespread albedo decreasing and induced melting of Himalayan snow and ice in the early 21st century.

PubMed

Ming, Jing; Wang, Yaqiang; Du, Zhencai; Zhang, Tong; Guo, Wanqin; Xiao, Cunde; Xu, Xiaobin; Ding, Minghu; Zhang, Dongqi; Yang, Wen

2015-01-01

The widely distributed glaciers in the greater Himalayan region have generally experienced rapid shrinkage since the 1850s. As invaluable sources of water and because of their scarcity, these glaciers are extremely important. Beginning in the twenty-first century, new methods have been applied to measure the mass budget of these glaciers. Investigations have shown that the albedo is an important parameter that affects the melting of Himalayan glaciers. The surface albedo based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) glaciers is surveyed in this study for the period 2000-2011. The general albedo trend shows that the glaciers have been darkening since 2000. The most rapid decrease in the surface albedo has occurred in the glacial area above 6000 m, which implies that melting will likely extend to snow accumulation areas. The mass-loss equivalent (MLE) of the HKH glacial area caused by surface shortwave radiation absorption is estimated to be 10.4 Gt yr-1, which may contribute to 1.2% of the global sea level rise on annual average (2003-2009). This work probably presents a first scene depicting the albedo variations over the whole HKH glacial area during the period 2000-2011. Most rapidly decreasing in albedo has been detected in the highest area, which deserves to be especially concerned.

Material Transport in ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohde, V.; Dux, R.; Mayer, M.; Neu, R.; PA~ 1/4 tterich, T.; Schneider, W.; ASDEX Upgrade-Team,

Today carbon is the most common first wall material in fusion experiments, whereas the first wall of the next step device will consist of a mixture of elements. Especially tungsten has been shown to be an alternative to low-Z materials. However, even with 40% of tungsten coated plasma facing components, carbon is still the dominant impurity at ASDEX Upgrade. A consistent picture of the carbon migration in ASDEX Upgrade has been achieved. Primary carbon sources are the protection limiters at the low field side of the main chamber. Eroded carbon is distributed all over the main chamber. So, the initially tungsten coated central column acts as the main carbon source during discharges, even though a considerable amount of tungsten surfaces persists. Carbon coverage of the central column can significantly change on a shot to shot basis. The divertor target plates act as a strong carbon sink. Deposits are found at the inner and outer divertor, which may be re-eroded forming precursors for layer production at remote areas. In ASDEX Upgrade, deposits on the subdivertor structure are formed by hydro-carbons with a high effective sticking coefficient. A parasitic plasma at these locations may enhance the surface loss probability by surface activation. At more remote areas, such as the pump ducts, a very small deposition is found. Non sticking hydro-carbons are effectively pumped by the cryopump and turbo molecular pumps.

Volcanism and an Ancient Atmosphere on the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, G. J.

2017-11-01

One of the distinguishing features of the Moon is its flimsy atmosphere, which has a pressure 300 trillion times smaller than Earth's pressure at sea level. The density is so low that gas molecules rarely collide and readily escape into space. Micrometeorites hit the surface at their full cosmic velocities and the solar wind implants hydrogen, helium, carbon, and other elements into the dusty lunar surface. This airless body has been like this for billions of years. However, Debra Needham (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center) and David Kring (Center for Lunar Science and Exploration at the Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston) show that the Moon probably had a significant atmosphere for about 70 million years during the peak production rate of the lunar maria 3.5 billion years ago. The maria (dark regions that decorate the lunar nearside) are composed of overlapping lava flows. Needham and Kring show that the lavas would have transported sufficient volatiles such as carbon monoxide, sulfur gases, and H2O to the surface to create an atmosphere. The volcanism would have released about 20 quadrillion kilograms of gases, creating an atmosphere with a pressure 50% higher than in the current Martian atmosphere. Calculations show that the loss rate to space from this atmosphere would have been 10 kilograms per second, implying that it would take about 70 million years to remove this volcanically produced atmosphere.

Effects of modified biochar on rhizosphere microecology of rice (Oryza sativa L.) grown in As-contaminated soil.

PubMed

Liu, Shusi; Lu, Yixin; Yang, Chen; Liu, Chuanping; Ma, Lin; Dang, Zhi

2017-10-01

Biochar was carbon-rich and generated by high-temperature pyrolysis of biomass under oxygen-limited conditions. Due to the limitations of surface functional groups and the weakness of surface activity in the field of environmental remediation, the raw biochar frequently was chemically modified to improve its properties with a new performance. In this study, a kind of high-efficiency and low-cost amino biochar modified by nano zero-valent iron (ABC/NZVI) was synthesized and applied to paddy soil contaminated with arsenic (As). Dynamic changes of soil properties, arsenic speciations and rhizosphere microbial communities have been investigated over the whole growth period of rice plants. Pot experiments revealed that the ABC/NZVI could decrease the arsenic concentration in rice straw by 47.9% and increase the content of nitrogen in rice straw by 47.2%. Proportion of Geobacter in soil with ABC/NZVI treatment increased by 175% in tillering period; while Nitrososphaera decreased by 61 and 20% in tillering and maturity, respectively, compared to that of control. ABC/NZVI promotes arsenic immobilization in rhizosphere soil and precipitation on root surface and reduces arsenic accumulation in rice. At the same time, ABC/NZVI would inhibit Nitrososphaera which is related to ammonia oxidation process, and it would have a promising potential as soil amendment to reduce nitrogen loss probably.

Robust Characterization of Loss Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallman, Joel J.; Barnhill, Marie; Emerson, Joseph

2015-08-01

Many physical implementations of qubits—including ion traps, optical lattices and linear optics—suffer from loss. A nonzero probability of irretrievably losing a qubit can be a substantial obstacle to fault-tolerant methods of processing quantum information, requiring new techniques to safeguard against loss that introduce an additional overhead that depends upon the loss rate. Here we present a scalable and platform-independent protocol for estimating the average loss rate (averaged over all input states) resulting from an arbitrary Markovian noise process, as well as an independent estimate of detector efficiency. Moreover, we show that our protocol gives an additional constraint on estimated parameters from randomized benchmarking that improves the reliability of the estimated error rate and provides a new indicator for non-Markovian signatures in the experimental data. We also derive a bound for the state-dependent loss rate in terms of the average loss rate.

Release of Nitrogen and Phosphorus from Poultry Litter Amended with Acidified Biochar

PubMed Central

Doydora, Sarah A.; Cabrera, Miguel L.; Das, Keshav C.; Gaskin, Julia W.; Sonon, Leticia S.; Miller, William P.

2011-01-01

Application of poultry litter (PL) to soil may lead to nitrogen (N) losses through ammonia (NH3) volatilization and to potential contamination of surface runoff with PL-derived phosphorus (P). Amending litter with acidified biochar may minimize these problems by decreasing litter pH and by retaining litter-derived P, respectively. This study evaluated the effect of acidified biochars from pine chips (PC) and peanut hulls (PH) on NH3 losses and inorganic N and P released from surface-applied or incorporated PL. Poultry litter with or without acidified biochars was surface-applied or incorporated into the soil and incubated for 21 d. Volatilized NH3 was determined by trapping it in acid. Inorganic N and P were determined by leaching the soil with 0.01 M of CaCl2 during the study and by extracting it with 1 M KCl after incubation. Acidified biochars reduced NH3 losses by 58 to 63% with surface-applied PL, and by 56 to 60% with incorporated PL. Except for PH biochar, which caused a small increase in leached NH4 +-N with incorporated PL, acidified biochars had no effect on leached or KCl-extractable inorganic N and P from surface-applied or incorporated PL. These results suggest that acidified biochars may decrease NH3 losses from PL but may not reduce the potential for P loss in surface runoff from soils receiving PL. PMID:21655132

A potential risk of overestimating apparent diffusion coefficient in parotid glands.

PubMed

Liu, Yi-Jui; Lee, Yi-Hsiung; Chang, Hing-Chiu; Huang, Teng-Yi; Chiu, Hui-Chu; Wang, Chih-Wei; Chiou, Ta-Wei; Hsu, Kang; Juan, Chun-Jung; Huang, Guo-Shu; Hsu, Hsian-He

2015-01-01

To investigate transient signal loss on diffusion weighted images (DWI) and overestimation of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) in parotid glands using single shot echoplanar DWI (EPDWI). This study enrolled 6 healthy subjects and 7 patients receiving radiotherapy. All participants received dynamic EPDWI with a total of 8 repetitions. Imaging quality of DWI was evaluated. Probability of severe overestimation of ADC (soADC), defined by an ADC ratio more than 1.2, was calculated. Error on T2WI, DWI, and ADC was computed. Statistical analysis included paired Student t testing and Mann-Whitney U test. A P value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Transient signal loss was visually detected on some excitations of DWI but not on T2WI or mean DWI. soADC occurred randomly among 8 excitations and 3 directions of diffusion encoding gradients. Probability of soADC was significantly higher in radiotherapy group (42.86%) than in healthy group (24.39%). The mean error percentage decreased as the number of excitations increased on all images, and, it was smallest on T2WI, followed by DWI and ADC in an increasing order. Transient signal loss on DWI was successfully detected by dynamic EPDWI. The signal loss on DWI and overestimation of ADC could be partially remedied by increasing the number of excitations.

Estimating ambiguity preferences and perceptions in multiple prior models: Evidence from the field.

PubMed

Dimmock, Stephen G; Kouwenberg, Roy; Mitchell, Olivia S; Peijnenburg, Kim

2015-12-01

We develop a tractable method to estimate multiple prior models of decision-making under ambiguity. In a representative sample of the U.S. population, we measure ambiguity attitudes in the gain and loss domains. We find that ambiguity aversion is common for uncertain events of moderate to high likelihood involving gains, but ambiguity seeking prevails for low likelihoods and for losses. We show that choices made under ambiguity in the gain domain are best explained by the α-MaxMin model, with one parameter measuring ambiguity aversion (ambiguity preferences) and a second parameter quantifying the perceived degree of ambiguity (perceptions about ambiguity). The ambiguity aversion parameter α is constant and prior probability sets are asymmetric for low and high likelihood events. The data reject several other models, such as MaxMin and MaxMax, as well as symmetric probability intervals. Ambiguity aversion and the perceived degree of ambiguity are both higher for men and for the college-educated. Ambiguity aversion (but not perceived ambiguity) is also positively related to risk aversion. In the loss domain, we find evidence of reflection, implying that ambiguity aversion for gains tends to reverse into ambiguity seeking for losses. Our model's estimates for preferences and perceptions about ambiguity can be used to analyze the economic and financial implications of such preferences.

Ecological risk-benefit analysis of a wetland development based on risk assessment using "expected loss of biodiversity".

PubMed

Oka, T; Matsuda, H; Kadono, Y

2001-12-01

Ecological risk from the development of a wetland is assessed quantitatively by means of a new risk measure, expected loss of biodiversity (ELB). ELB is defined as the weighted sum of the increments in the probabilities of extinction of the species living in the wetland due to its loss. The weighting for a particular species is calculated according to the length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree that will be lost if the species becomes extinct. The length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree is regarded as reflecting the extent of contribution of the species to the taxonomic diversity of the world of living things. The increments in the probabilities of extinction are calculated by a simulation used for making the Red List for vascular plants in Japan. The resulting ELB for the loss of Nakaikemi wetland is 9,200 years. This result is combined with the economic costs for conservation of the wetland to produce a value for the indicator of the "cost per unit of biodiversity saved." Depending on the scenario, the value is 13,000 yen per year-ELB or 110,000 to 420,000 yen per year-ELB (1 US dollar = 110 yen in 1999).

Estimate of the direct production losses in Canadian dairy herds with subclinical Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection

PubMed Central

Tiwari, Ashwani; VanLeeuwen, John A.; Dohoo, Ian R.; Keefe, Greg P.; Weersink, Alfons

2008-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the annual losses from Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) for an average, MAP-seropositive, Canadian dairy herd. A partial-budget simulation model was developed with 4 components of direct production losses (decreased milk production, premature voluntary culling, mortality, and reproductive losses). Input values were obtained primarily from a national seroprevalence survey of 373 Canadian dairy farms in 8 of 10 provinces. The model took into account the variability and uncertainty of the required input values; consequently, it produced probability distributions of the estimated losses. For an average Canadian dairy herd with 12.7% of 61 cows seropositive for MAP, the mean loss was $2992 (95% C.I., $143 to $9741) annually, or $49 per cow per year. Additional culling, decreased milk production, mortality, and reproductive losses accounted for 46%, 9%, 16%, and 29% of the losses, respectively. Canadian dairy producers should use best management practices to reduce these substantial annual losses. PMID:18624066

Unemployment, health, and education of HIV-infected males in Germany.

PubMed

Groß, Mona; Herr, Annika; Hower, Martin; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Mahlich, Jörg; Stoll, Matthias

2016-06-01

The present study on people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) identifies socio-demographic and health-related factors corresponding with their labour market participation. The study sample bases on a German observational sub-study of 527 male PLWHA. The present analysis is restricted to male PLWHA in working age. By means of a multivariate regression, we identify factors that contribute to unemployment and job loss. The probability to be unemployed is significantly negatively correlated with age above 40 years and graduation from university and positively correlated with problems with daily activities (frailty) and disease severity (CDC stage C). The probability of employment loss during the 2-year observation period is significantly negatively correlated with the educational level, whereas frailty and hepatitis C (HCV) co-infection increase the odds of employment loss. As problems to manage daily activities and disease progression are associated with unemployment, an effective HIV treatment is an important cornerstone for employment. This is also true for the management of comorbidities, such as HCV co-infection, which also negatively affects employment status in our study.

Secondary osteoporosis.

PubMed

Gennari, C; Martini, G; Nuti, R

1998-06-01

Generalized osteoporosis currently represents a heterogeneous group of conditions with many different causes and pathogenetic mechanisms, that often are variably associated. The term "secondary" is applied to all patients with osteoporosis in whom the identifiable causal factors are other than menopause and aging. In this heterogeneous group of conditions, produced by many different pathogenetic mechanisms, a negative bone balance may be variably associated with low, normal or increased bone remodeling states. A consistent group of secondary osteoporosis is related to endocrinological or iatrogenic causes. Exogenous hypercortisolism may be considered an important risk factor for secondary osteoporosis in the community, and probably glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis is the most common type of secondary osteoporosis. Supraphysiological doses of corticosteroids cause two abnormalities in bone metabolism: a relative increase in bone resorption, and a relative reduction in bone formation. Bone loss, mostly of trabecular bone, with its resultant fractures is the most incapacitating consequence of osteoporosis. The estimated incidence of fractures in patients prescribed corticosteroid is 30% to 50%. Osteoporosis is considered one of the potentially serious side effects of heparin therapy. The occurrence of heparin-induced osteoporosis appeared to be strictly related to the length of treatment (over 4-5 months), and the dosage (15,000 U or more daily), but the pathogenesis is poorly understood. It has been suggested that heparin could cause an increase in bone resorption by increasing the number of differentiated osteoclasts, and by enhancing the activity of individual osteoclasts. Hyperthyroidism is frequently associated with loss of trabecular and cortical bone; the enhanced bone turnover that develops in thyrotoxicosis is characterized by an increase in the number of osteoclasts and resorption sites, and an increase in the ratio of resorptive to formative bone surfaces, with the net result of bone loss. Despite these findings, the occurrence of pathological fractures in patients with hyperthyroidism is relatively low, and probably due to the fact that deficiencies in bone mass may be reversed by treatment of the thyroid disease. Most, but not all, studies on insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) report an association with osteopenia. In IDDM, the extent of bone loss is usually slight, which helps explain the discrepancy between the frequency of decreased bone mineral density, and the frequency of osteoporotic fractures in long-standing diabetes. Contradictory results have been obtained in non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) patients. Increased rates of bone loss at the radius and lumbar spine were demonstrated either in patients with two-thirds gastric resection and Billroth II reconstruction, or in those with one-third resection and Billroth I anastomosis, and the metabolic bone disease following gastrectomy may consist also of osteomalacia or mixed pattern of osteoporosis-osteomalacia, with secondary hyperparathyroidism. Miscellaneous causes of secondary osteoporosis are also immobilization, pregnancy and lactation, and alcohol abuse.

How internal drainage affects evaporation dynamics from soil surfaces ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Or, D.; Lehmann, P.; Sommer, M.

2017-12-01

Following rainfall, infiltrated water may be redistributed internally to larger depths or lost to the atmosphere by evaporation (and by plant uptake from depths at longer time scales). A large fraction of evaporative losses from terrestrial surfaces occurs during stage1 evaporation during which phase change occurs at the wet surface supplied by capillary flow from the soil. Recent studies have shown existence of a soil-dependent characteristic length below which capillary continuity is disrupted and a drastic shift to slower stage 2 evaporation ensues. Internal drainage hastens this transition and affect evaporative losses. To predict the transition to stage 2 and associated evaporative losses, we developed an analytical solution for evaporation dynamics with concurrent internal drainage. Expectedly, evaporative losses are suppressed when drainage is considered to different degrees depending on soil type and wetness. We observe that high initial water content supports rapid drainage and thus promotes the sheltering of soil water below the evaporation depth. The solution and laboratory experiments confirm nonlinear relationship between initial water content and total evaporative losses. The concept contributes to establishing bounds on regional surface evaporation considering rainfall characteristics and soil types.

Inelastic vibrational bulk and surface losses of swift electrons in ionic nanostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hohenester, Ulrich; Trügler, Andreas; Batson, Philip E.; Lagos, Maureen J.

2018-04-01

In a recent paper [Lagos et al., Nature (London) 543, 533 (2017), 10.1038/nature21699] we have used electron energy loss spectroscopy with sub-10 meV energy and atomic spatial resolution to map optical and acoustic, bulk and surface vibrational modes in magnesium oxide nanocubes. We found that a local dielectric description works well for the simulation of aloof geometries, similar to related work for surface plasmons and surface plasmon polaritons, while for intersecting geometries such a description fails to reproduce the rich spectral features associated with excitation of bulk acoustic and optical phonons. To account for scatterings with a finite momentum exchange, in this paper we investigate molecular and lattice dynamics simulations of bulk losses in magnesium-oxide nanocubes using a rigid-ion description and investigate the loss spectra for intersecting electron beams. From our analysis we can evaluate the capability of electron energy loss spectroscopy for the investigation of phonon modes at the nanoscale, and we discuss shortcomings of our simplified approach as well as directions for future investigations.

Low optical-loss facet preparation for silica-on-silicon photonics using the ductile dicing regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, Lewis G.; Rogers, Helen L.; Cooper, Peter A.; Holmes, Christopher; Gates, James C.; Smith, Peter G. R.

2013-11-01

The efficient production of high-quality facets for low-loss coupling is a significant production issue in integrated optics, usually requiring time consuming and manually intensive lapping and polishing steps, which add considerably to device fabrication costs. The development of precision dicing saws with diamond impregnated blades has allowed optical grade surfaces to be machined in crystalline materials such as lithium niobate and garnets. In this report we investigate the optimization of dicing machine parameters to obtain optical quality surfaces in a silica-on-silicon planar device demonstrating high optical quality in a commercially important glassy material. We achieve a surface roughness of 4.9 nm (Sa) using the optimized dicing conditions. By machining a groove across a waveguide, using the optimized dicing parameters, a grating based loss measurement technique is used to measure precisely the average free space interface loss per facet caused by scattering as a consequence of surface roughness. The average interface loss per facet was calculated to be: -0.63 dB and -0.76 dB for the TE and TM polarizations, respectively.

Mode Specific Electronic Friction in Dissociative Chemisorption on Metal Surfaces: H2 on Ag(111)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Reinhard J.; Jiang, Bin; Guo, Hua; Tully, John C.

2017-06-01

Electronic friction and the ensuing nonadiabatic energy loss play an important role in chemical reaction dynamics at metal surfaces. Using molecular dynamics with electronic friction evaluated on the fly from density functional theory, we find strong mode dependence and a dominance of nonadiabatic energy loss along the bond stretch coordinate for scattering and dissociative chemisorption of H2 on the Ag(111) surface. Exemplary trajectories with varying initial conditions indicate that this mode specificity translates into modulated energy loss during a dissociative chemisorption event. Despite minor nonadiabatic energy loss of about 5%, the directionality of friction forces induces dynamical steering that affects individual reaction outcomes, specifically for low-incidence energies and vibrationally excited molecules. Mode-specific friction induces enhanced loss of rovibrational rather than translational energy and will be most visible in its effect on final energy distributions in molecular scattering experiments.

Continued Investigation of Leakage and Power Loss Test Results for Competing Turbine Engine Seals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgado, Irebert R.; Proctor, Margaret P.

2007-01-01

Seal leakage decreases with increasing surface speed due to reduced clearances from disk centrifugal growth. Annular and labyrinth seal leakage are 2-3 times greater than brush and finger seal leakage. Seal leakage rates increase with increasing temperature because of seal clearance growth due to different coefficients of thermal expansion between the seal and test disk. Seal power loss is not strongly affected by inlet temperature. Seal power loss increases with increasing surface speed, seal pressure differential, mass flow rate or flow factor, and radial clearance. The brush and finger seals had nearly the same power loss. Annular and labyrinth seal power loss were higher than finger or brush seal power loss. The brush seal power loss was the lowest and 15-30% lower than annular and labyrinth seal power loss.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

PubMed

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Licata, Angelo

2015-01-01

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific

PubMed Central

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires. PMID:25691965

Nematode Damage Functions: The Problems of Experimental and Sampling Error

PubMed Central

Ferris, H.

1984-01-01

The development and use of pest damage functions involves measurement and experimental errors associated with cultural, environmental, and distributional factors. Damage predictions are more valuable if considered with associated probability. Collapsing population densities into a geometric series of population classes allows a pseudo-replication removal of experimental and sampling error in damage function development. Recognition of the nature of sampling error for aggregated populations allows assessment of probability associated with the population estimate. The product of the probabilities incorporated in the damage function and in the population estimate provides a basis for risk analysis of the yield loss prediction and the ensuing management decision. PMID:19295865

The effect of surface grain reversal on the AC losses of sintered Nd-Fe-B permanent magnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Martina; Roth, Stefan; Gebert, Annett; Schultz, Ludwig; Gutfleisch, Oliver

2015-02-01

Sintered Nd-Fe-B magnets are exposed to AC magnetic fields in many applications, e.g. in permanent magnet electric motors. We have measured the AC losses of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnets in a closed circuit arrangement using AC fields with root mean square-values up to 80 mT (peak amplitude 113 mT) over the frequency range 50 to 1000 Hz. Two magnet grades with different dysprosium content were investigated. Around the remanence point the low grade material (1.7 wt% Dy) showed significant hysteresis losses; whereas the losses in the high grade material (8.9 wt% Dy) were dominated by classical eddy currents. Kerr microscopy images revealed that the hysteresis losses measured for the low grade magnet can be mainly ascribed to grains at the sample surface with multiple domains. This was further confirmed when the high grade material was subsequently exposed to DC and AC magnetic fields. Here a larger number of surface grains with multiple domains are also present once the step in the demagnetization curve attributed to the surface grain reversal is reached and a rise in the measured hysteresis losses is evident. If in the low grade material the operating point is slightly offset from the remanence point, such that zero field is not bypassed, its AC losses can also be fairly well described with classical eddy current theory.

Morphine Injection

MedlinePlus

... back or joint pain; widening of the pupils; irritability; anxiety; weakness; stomach cramps; difficulty falling asleep or staying asleep; nausea; loss of appetite; vomiting; diarrhea; fast breathing; or fast heartbeat. Your doctor will probably decrease your dose gradually.

Meperidine Injection

MedlinePlus

... back or joint pain; widening of the pupils; irritability; anxiety; weakness; stomach cramps; difficulty falling asleep or staying asleep; nausea; loss of appetite; vomiting; diarrhea; fast breathing; or fast heartbeat. Your doctor will probably decrease your dose gradually.

Branch retinal vein thrombosis and visual loss probably associated with pegylated interferon therapy of chronic hepatitis C

PubMed Central

Gonçalves, Luciana Lofego; Farias, Alberto Queiroz; Gonçalves, Patrícia Lofego; D’Amico, Elbio Antonio; Carrilho, Flair José

2006-01-01

Ophthalmological complications with interferon therapy are usually mild and reversible, not requiring the withdrawal of the treatment. We report a case of a patient who had visual loss probably associated with interferon therapy. Chronic hepatitis C virus infection (genotype 1a) was diagnosed in a 33-year old asymptomatic man. His past medical history was unremarkable and previous routine ophthalmologic check-up was normal. Pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin were started. Three weeks later he reported painless reduction of vision. Ophthalmologic examination showed extensive intraretinal hemorrhages and cotton-wool spots, associated with inferior branch retinal vein thrombosis. Antiviral therapy was immediately discontinued, but one year later he persists with severely decreased visual acuity. This case illustrates the possibility of unpredictable and severe complications during pegylated interferon therapy. PMID:16874884

The Association of Exposure, Risk, and Resiliency Factors With PTSD Among Jews and Arabs Exposed to Repeated Acts of Terrorism in Israel

PubMed Central

Hobfoll, Stevan E.; Canetti-Nisim, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J.; Palmieri, Patrick A.; Varley, Joseph D.; Galea, Sandro

2009-01-01

Israel has faced ongoing terrorism since the beginning of the Al Aqsa Intifada in September 2000. The authors examined risk and resiliency factors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among 1,117 Jews and 394 Arab adult citizens of Israel during August and September 2004 through telephone interviews. Probable PTSD was found among 6.6% of Jews and 18.0% of Arabs. Predictors of probable PTSD in a multivariate model for Jews were refusal to report income, being traditionally religious, economic and psychosocial resource loss, greater traumatic growth, and lower social support. For Arabs, predictors were low education and economic resource loss among those exposed to terrorism. Findings for only those directly exposed to terrorism were similar to those for the overall national sample. PMID:18302179

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.

PubMed

Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric

2012-07-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

PubMed Central

Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric

2012-01-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977

Reduction of mare basalts by sulfur loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brett, R.

1976-01-01

Metallic Fe content and S abundance are inversely correlated in mare basalts. Either S volatilization from the melt results in reduction of Fe2+ to Fe0 or else high S content decreases Fe0 activity in the melt, thus explaining the correlation. All considerations favor the model that metallic iron in mare basalts is due to sulfur loss. The Apollo 11 and 17 mare basalt melts were probably saturated with S at the time of eruption; the Apollo 12 and 15 basalts were probably not saturated. Non-mare rocks show a positive correlation of S abundance with metallic Fe content; it is proposed that this is due to the addition of meteoritic material having a fairly constant Fe0/S ratio. If true, metallic Fe content or S abundance in non-mare rocks provides a measure of degree of meteoritic contamination. ?? 1976.

The association of exposure, risk, and resiliency factors with PTSD among Jews and Arabs exposed to repeated acts of terrorism in Israel.

PubMed

Hobfoll, Stevan E; Canetti-Nisim, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J; Palmieri, Patrick A; Varley, Joseph D; Galea, Sandro

2008-02-01

Israel has faced ongoing terrorism since the beginning of the Al Aqsa Intifada in September 2000. The authors examined risk and resiliency factors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among 1,117 Jews and 394 Arab adult citizens of Israel during August and September 2004 through telephone interviews. Probable PTSD was found among 6.6% of Jews and 18.0% of Arabs. Predictors of probable PTSD in a multivariate model for Jews were refusal to report income, being traditionally religious, economic and psychosocial resource loss, greater traumatic growth, and lower social support. For Arabs, predictors were low education and economic resource loss among those exposed to terrorism. Findings for only those directly exposed to terrorism were similar to those for the overall national sample.

Short-term memory loss associated with rosuvastatin.

PubMed

Galatti, Laura; Polimeni, Giovanni; Salvo, Francesco; Romani, Marcello; Sessa, Aurelio; Spina, Edoardo

2006-08-01

Memory loss and cognitive impairment have been reported in the literature in association with several 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins), but we found no published case reports associated with rosuvastatin. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of rosuvastatin-related short-term memory loss. A 53-year-old Caucasian man with hypercholesterolemia experienced memory loss after being treated with rosuvastatin 10 mg/day. He had no other concomitant conditions or drug therapies. After discontinuation of rosuvastatin, the neuropsychiatric adverse reaction resolved gradually, suggesting a probable drug association. During the following year, the patient remained free from neuropsychiatric disturbances. Clinicians should be aware of possible adverse cognitive reactions during statin therapy, including rosuvastatin.

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell model for aging predictions: Simulated equivalent active surface area loss and comparisons with durability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robin, C.; Gérard, M.; Quinaud, M.; d'Arbigny, J.; Bultel, Y.

2016-09-01

The prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) lifetime is one of the major challenges to optimize both material properties and dynamic control of the fuel cell system. In this study, by a multiscale modeling approach, a mechanistic catalyst dissolution model is coupled to a dynamic PEMFC cell model to predict the performance loss of the PEMFC. Results are compared to two 2000-h experimental aging tests. More precisely, an original approach is introduced to estimate the loss of an equivalent active surface area during an aging test. Indeed, when the computed Electrochemical Catalyst Surface Area profile is fitted on the experimental measures from Cyclic Voltammetry, the computed performance loss of the PEMFC is underestimated. To be able to predict the performance loss measured by polarization curves during the aging test, an equivalent active surface area is obtained by a model inversion. This methodology enables to successfully find back the experimental cell voltage decay during time. The model parameters are fitted from the polarization curves so that they include the global degradation. Moreover, the model captures the aging heterogeneities along the surface of the cell observed experimentally. Finally, a second 2000-h durability test in dynamic operating conditions validates the approach.

Towards a coherent view at infrared wavelengths of mass loss in Betelgeuse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kervella, P.; Perrin, G.; Montargès, M.; Haubois, X.

2013-05-01

The violent convective motions, low surface gravity, and high brightness of red supergiants combine to trigger an intense stellar wind. As the distance from the star increases, the standard scenario is that the ejected material forms molecules, then dust particles. But this general picture is still fragmentary. Our goal is to assemble a better understanding of mass loss in Betelgeuse, considered as a prototype for its class, from its photosphere to the interface of its wind with the interstellar medium. Thanks to its proximity ( ≈ 197 pc), it is ideally suited for such a detailed study. Over the past few years, our team obtained an extensive set of observations of Betelgeuse from high angular resolution instruments, probing a broad range of spatial scales: 1) interferometric imaging of its photosphere and close envelope in the near- and thermal-IR domains (IOTA/IONIC), 2) adaptive optics "lucky imaging" of its compact molecular envelope (VLT/NACO, 1.0-2.2 μm), and 3) diffraction-limited imaging of its dusty envelope (VLT/VISIR, 8-20 μm). From our interferometric data, we detect the presence of spots at the surface of the star, as well as CO and H2O molecules, and dust particles close to the star. Within 6 R⋆, the flux distribution of the envelope is compatible with the presence of the CN molecule. At a few arcseconds from the central star, we observe a complex dusty envelope probably containing O-rich dust (e.g. silicates, alumina). We present an overview of these recent observational results and ongoing work. They provide new hints on the physical and chemical mechanisms through which Betelgeuse interacts with its environment.