Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

Understanding Decreases in Land Relative Humidity with Global Warming: Conceptual Model and GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, Michael P.; O'Gorman, Paul A.

2016-12-01

Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving moisture transport between the land and ocean boundary layers and evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation model simulations, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land relative humidity. The box model suggests there is a strong link between fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean, and the greater warming over land than ocean then implies a decrease in land relative humidity. Evapotranspiration is of secondary importance for the increase in specific humidity over land, but it matters more for the decrease in relative humidity. Further analysis shows there is a strong feedback between changes in surface-air temperature and relative humidity, and this can amplify the influence on relative humidity of factors such as stomatal conductance and soil moisture.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgard, Clara; Notz, Dirk

2017-05-01

We investigate changes in the Arctic Ocean energy budget simulated by 26 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 framework. Our goal is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean warming between 1961 and 2099 is primarily driven by changes in the net atmospheric surface flux or by changes in the meridional oceanic heat flux. We find that the simulated Arctic Ocean warming is driven by positive anomalies in the net atmospheric surface flux in 11 models, by positive anomalies in the meridional oceanic heat flux in 11 models, and by positive anomalies in both energy fluxes in four models. The different behaviors are mainly characterized by the different changes in meridional oceanic heat flux that lead to different changes in the turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere. The multimodel ensemble mean is hence not representative of a consensus across the models in Arctic climate projections.

Interhemispheric SST gradient trends in the Indian Ocean prior to and during the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, L.; McPhaden, M. J.

2016-12-01

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been rising for decades in the Indian Ocean in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, in this study we show that during the recent hiatus in global warming, a striking interhemispheric gradient in Indian Ocean SST trends developed around 2000, with relatively weak or little warming to the north of 10°S and accelerated warming to the south of 10oS. We present evidence from a wide variety of data sources that this interhemispheric gradient in SST trends is forced primarily by an increase of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean induced by stronger Pacific trade winds. This increased transport led to a depression of the thermocline that facilitated SST warming presumably through a reduction in the vertical turbulent transport of heat in the southern Indian Ocean. Surface wind changes in the Indian Ocean linked to the enhanced Walker circulation also may have contributed to thermocline depth variations and associated SST changes, with downwelling favorable wind stress curls between 10oS and 20oS and upwelling favorable wind stress curls between the equator and 10oS. In addition, the anomalous southwesterly wind stresses off the coast of Somalia favored intensified coastal upwelling and off-shore advection of upwelled water, which would have led to reduced warming of the northern Indian Ocean. Though highly uncertain, lateral heat advection associated with the ITF and surface heat fluxes may also have played a role in forming the interhemispheric SST gradient change.

Impact of the ocean diurnal cycle on the North Atlantic mean sea surface temperatures in a regionally coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guemas, Virginie; Salas-Mélia, David; Kageyama, Masa; Giordani, Hervé; Voldoire, Aurore

2013-03-01

This study investigates the mechanisms by which the ocean diurnal cycle can affect the ocean mean state in the North Atlantic region. We perform two ocean-atmosphere regionally coupled simulations (20°N-80°N, 80°W-40°E) using the CNRMOM1D ocean model coupled to the ARPEGE4 atmospheric model: one with a 1 h coupling frequency (C1h) and another with a 24 h coupling frequency (C24h). The comparison between both experiments shows that accounting for the ocean diurnal cycle tends to warm up the surface ocean at high latitudes and cool it down in the subtropics during the boreal summer season (June-August). In the subtropics, the leading cause for the formation of the negative surface temperature anomalies is the fact that the nocturnal entrainment heat flux overcompensates the diurnal absorption of solar heat flux. Both in the subtropics and in the high latitudes, the surface temperature anomalies are involved in a positive feedback loop: the cold (warm) surface anomalies favour a decrease (increase) in evaporation, a decrease (increase) in tropospheric humidity, a decrease (increase) in downwelling longwave radiative flux which in turn favours the surface cooling (warming). Furthermore, the decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by a decrease in the zonal mean flow.

Long-terms Change of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Y. G.; Choi, A.

2016-02-01

Using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) the long term trend in the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 is investigated. Both in winter and summer SST was increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes was different. During winter warming rate was greater in the deep basin in the central part, while during summer near the southern part. In winter the net heat flux into the sea was increased and could contribute to the warming. The pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. The heat flux was increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased in deeper part where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened to lower the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre that transports cold northern water to south was weakened to warm the ocean. The effect manifested more strongly southward western boundary currents, and subsequently cold advection. In summer the net surface heat flux, however, was reduced and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the ocean the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is antiparallel to the mean SST gradient. Firstly, southeastward cold advection is reduced to warm the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. The upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened to raise the SST east of Vietnam. Thus the weakening of the wind in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different.

A simple model of the effect of ocean ventilation on ocean heat uptake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.; Urban, Nathan Mark

Presentation includes slides on Earth System Models vs. Simple Climate Models; A Popular SCM: Energy Balance Model of Anomalies; On calibrating against one ESM experiment, the SCM correctly captures that ESM's surface warming response with other forcings; Multi-Model Analysis: Multiple ESMs, Single SCM; Posterior Distributions of ECS; However In Excess of 90% of TOA Energy Imbalance is Sequestered in the World Oceans; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Including TOA Rad. Imbalance and Ocean Heat in Calibration Improves Repr., but Significant Errors Persist; Improved Vertical Resolution Does Not Fix Problem; A Seriesmore » of Expts. Confirms That Anomaly-Diffusing Models Cannot Properly Represent Ocean Heat Uptake; Physics of the Thermocline; Outcropping Isopycnals and Horizontally-Averaged Layers; Local interactions between outcropping isopycnals leads to non-local interactions between horizontally-averaged layers; Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat are Well Represented With Just 4 Layers; A Series of Expts. Confirms That When Non-Local Interactions are Allowed, the SCMs Can Represent Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Uptake; and Summary and Conclusions.« less

Warm tropical ocean surface and global anoxia during the mid-Cretaceous period.

PubMed

Wilson, P A; Norris, R D

2001-07-26

The middle of the Cretaceous period (about 120 to 80 Myr ago) was a time of unusually warm polar temperatures, repeated reef-drowning in the tropics and a series of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) that promoted both the widespread deposition of organic-carbon-rich marine sediments and high biological turnover. The cause of the warm temperatures is unproven but widely attributed to high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. In contrast, there is no consensus on the climatic causes and effects of the OAEs, with both high biological productivity and ocean 'stagnation' being invoked as the cause of ocean anoxia. Here we show, using stable isotope records from multiple species of well-preserved foraminifera, that the thermal structure of surface waters in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean underwent pronounced variability about 100 Myr ago, with maximum sea surface temperatures 3-5 degrees C warmer than today. This variability culminated in a collapse of upper-ocean stratification during OAE-1d (the 'Breistroffer' event), a globally significant period of organic-carbon burial that we show to have fundamental, stratigraphically valuable, geochemical similarities to the main OAEs of the Mesozoic era. Our records are consistent with greenhouse forcing being responsible for the warm temperatures, but are inconsistent both with explanations for OAEs based on ocean stagnation, and with the traditional view (reviewed in ref. 12) that past warm periods were more stable than today's climate.

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2016-01-01

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

PubMed

Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

2017-08-15

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

2017-12-01

The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

Revisiting the Cause of the 1989-2009 Arctic Surface Warming Using the Surface Energy Budget: Downward Infrared Radiation Dominates the Surface Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sukyoung; Gong, Tingting; Feldstein, Steven B.; Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

2017-10-01

The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF), and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend.

Arctic Sea Ice Basal Melt Onset Variability and Associated Ocean Surface Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrick, R. A.; Hutchings, J. K.

2015-12-01

The interannual and regional variability in Arctic sea ice melt has previously been characterized only in terms of surface melting. A focus on the variability in the onset of basal melt is additionally required to understand Arctic melt patterns. Monitoring basal melt provides a glimpse into the importance of ocean heating to sea ice melt. This warming is predominantly through seawater exposure due to lead opening and the associated solar warming at the ocean's surface. We present the temporal variability in basal melt onset observed by ice mass balance buoys throughout the Arctic Ocean since 2003, providing a different perspective than the satellite microwave data used to measure the onset of surface melt. We found that melt onset varies greatly, even for buoys deployed within 100km of each other. Therefore large volumes of data are necessary to accurately estimate the variability of basal melt onset. Once the variability of basal melt onset has been identified, we can investigate how this range has been changing as a response to atmospheric and oceanic warming, changes in ice morphology as well as the intensification of the ice albedo feedback.

Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

PubMed

Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

2010-08-24

The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

Indian Ocean corals reveal crucial role of World War II bias for twentieth century warming estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, M; Zinke, J; Dullo, W-C; Garbe-Schönberg, D; Latif, M; Weber, M E

2017-10-31

The western Indian Ocean has been warming faster than any other tropical ocean during the 20 th century, and is the largest contributor to the global mean sea surface temperature (SST) rise. However, the temporal pattern of Indian Ocean warming is poorly constrained and depends on the historical SST product. As all SST products are derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere dataset (ICOADS), it is challenging to evaluate which product is superior. Here, we present a new, independent SST reconstruction from a set of Porites coral geochemical records from the western Indian Ocean. Our coral reconstruction shows that the World War II bias in the historical sea surface temperature record is the main reason for the differences between the SST products, and affects western Indian Ocean and global mean temperature trends. The 20 th century Indian Ocean warming pattern portrayed by the corals is consistent with the SST product from the Hadley Centre (HadSST3), and suggests that the latter should be used in climate studies that include Indian Ocean SSTs. Our data shows that multi-core coral temperature reconstructions help to evaluate the SST products. Proxy records can provide estimates of 20 th century SST that are truly independent from the ICOADS data base.

Trichodesmium blooms and warm-core ocean surface features in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

PubMed

Jyothibabu, R; Karnan, C; Jagadeesan, L; Arunpandi, N; Pandiarajan, R S; Muraleedharan, K R; Balachandran, K K

2017-08-15

Trichodesmium is a bloom-forming, diazotrophic, non-heterocystous cyanobacteria widely distributed in the warmer oceans, and their bloom is considered a 'biological indication' of stratification and nitrogen limitation in the ocean surface layer. In the first part of this paper, based on the retrospective analyses of the ocean surface mesoscale features associated with 59 Trichodesmium bloom incidences recorded in the past, 32 from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and 27 from the rest of the world, we have showed that warm-core features have an inducing effect on bloom formation. In the second part, we have considered the environmental preferences of Trichodesmium bloom based on laboratory and field studies across the globe, and proposed a view about how warm-core features could provide an inducing pre-requisite condition for the bloom formation in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Proposed that the subsurface waters of warm-core features maintain more likely chances for the conducive nutrient and light conditions required for the triggering of the blooms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation to be amplified. The relative importance of the ocean warming versus the SLR was evaluated. Keywords: Hurricane Matthew, Global Warming, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model, Air-Sea interactions, Storm Surge, Inundation

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability

PubMed Central

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P.; Joshi, Manoj M.

2016-01-01

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies. PMID:27044090

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability.

PubMed

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P; Joshi, Manoj M

2016-04-19

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies.

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

PubMed

Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

2016-08-25

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

Detecting anthropogenic climate forcing in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijffels, S. A.

2016-12-01

Owing to its immense heat capacity, the global ocean is the fly-wheel of the climate system, absorbing, redistributing and storing heat on long timescales and over great distances. Of the extra heat trapped in the Earth System due to rising greenhouse gases, over 90% is being stored in the global oceans. Tracking this warming has been challenging due to past changes in the coverage and technology used in past ocean observations. Here, I'll review progress in estimating past warming rates and patterns. The warming of Earth's surface is also driving changes in the global hydrological cycle, which also intimately involves the oceans. Global ocean salinity changes reveal another footprint of a warming Earth. Some simple model runs that give insight into observed subsurface changes will also be described, along with an update on current warming rates and patterns as tracked by the global Argo programme. The prospects for the next advances in broadscale ocean monitoring will also be discussed.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-01

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.

PubMed

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO's cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming: OCEAN HEAT AND POLAR WARMING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2-doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at highmore » latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.« less

Eocene climate and Arctic paleobathymetry: A tectonic sensitivity study using GISS ModelE-R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

2009-12-01

The early Paleogene (65-45 million years ago, Ma) was a ‘greenhouse’ interval with global temperatures warmer than any other time in the last 65 Ma. This period was characterized by high levels of CO2, warm high-latitudes, warm surface-and-deep oceans, and an intensified hydrological cycle. Sediments from the Arctic suggest that the Eocene surface Arctic Ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions remain uncertain. We present equilibrium climate conditions derived from a fully-coupled, water-isotope enabled, general circulation model (GISS ModelE-R) configured for the early Eocene. We also present model-data comparison plots for key climatic variables (SST and δ18O) and analyses of the leading modes of variability in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Our tectonic sensitivity study indicates that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the seaways connecting the Arctic to the Atlantic and Tethys. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2°C in the North Atlantic and 5-10°C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We also suggest that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates in the Atlantic.

Warming and surface ocean acidification over the last deglaciation: implications for foraminiferal assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyez, K. A.; Hoenisch, B.; deMenocal, P. B.

2017-12-01

Although plankton drift with ocean currents, their presence and relative abundance varies across latitudes and environmental seawater conditions (e.g. temperature, pH, salinity). While earlier studies have focused on temperature as the primary factor for determining the regional species composition of planktic foraminiferal communities, evidence has recently been presented that foraminiferal shell thickness varies with ocean pH, and it remains unclear whether ongoing ocean acidification will cause ecological shifts within this plankton group. The transition from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 19,000-23,000 years B.P.) to the late Holocene (0-5,000 years B.P.) was characterized by both warming and acidification of the surface ocean, and thus provides an opportunity to study ecosystem shifts in response to these environmental changes. Here we provide new δ11B, Mg/Ca, and δ18O measurements from a suite of global sediment cores spanning this time range. We use these geochemical data to reconstruct ocean temperature, pH and salinity and pair the new data with previously published analyses of planktic foraminifera assemblages to study the respective effects of ocean warming and acidification on the foraminiferal habitat. At most open-ocean sample locations, our proxies indicate warming and acidification similar to previously published estimates, but in some marginal seas and coastal locations pH changes little between over the glacial termination. At face value, these observations suggest that warming is generally more important for ecosystem changes than acidification, at least over the slow rates of warming and ocean acidification in this time period. While geochemical data collection is being completed, we aim to include these data in an ecological model of foraminiferal habitat preferences.

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE PAGES

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.; ...

2016-07-18

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, In-Hong; Min, Seung-Ki; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Weller, Evan; Kim, Seon Tae

2017-04-01

This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.

Spatial distributions of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities have been resilient to long-term surface warming.

PubMed

Tarling, Geraint A; Ward, Peter; Thorpe, Sally E

2018-01-01

The biogeographic response of oceanic planktonic communities to climatic change has a large influence on the future stability of marine food webs and the functioning of global biogeochemical cycles. Temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the distribution of these communities and ocean warming has the potential to cause major distributional shifts, particularly in polar regions where the thermal envelope is narrow. We considered the impact of long-term ocean warming on the spatial distribution of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities through examining plankton abundance in relation to sea surface temperature between two distinct periods, separated by around 60 years. Analyses considered 16 dominant mesozooplankton taxa (in terms of biomass and abundance) in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from net samples and in situ temperature records collected during the Discovery Investigations (1926-1938) and contemporary campaigns (1996-2013). Sea surface temperature was found to have increased significantly by 0.74°C between the two eras. The corresponding sea surface temperature at which community abundance peaked was also significantly higher in contemporary times, by 0.98°C. Spatial projections indicated that the geographical location of community peak abundance had remained the same between the two eras despite the poleward advance of sea surface isotherms. If the community had remained within the same thermal envelope as in the 1920s-1930s, community peak abundance would be 500 km further south in the contemporary era. Studies in the northern hemisphere have found that dominant taxa, such as calanoid copepods, have conserved their thermal niches and tracked surface isotherms polewards. The fact that this has not occurred in the Southern Ocean suggests that other selective pressures, particularly food availability and the properties of underlying water masses, place greater constraints on spatial distributions in this region. It further demonstrates that this community is thermally resilient to present levels of sea surface warming. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ocean Warming, More than Acidification, Reduces Shell Strength in a Commercial Shellfish Species during Food Limitation

PubMed Central

Mackenzie, Clara L.; Ormondroyd, Graham A.; Curling, Simon F.; Ball, Richard J.; Whiteley, Nia M.; Malham, Shelagh K.

2014-01-01

Ocean surface pH levels are predicted to fall by 0.3–0.4 pH units by the end of the century and are likely to coincide with an increase in sea surface temperature of 2–4°C. The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functional properties of bivalve shells is largely unknown and of growing concern as the shell provides protection from mechanical and environmental challenges. We examined the effects of near-future pH (ambient pH –0.4 pH units) and warming (ambient temperature +4°C) on the shells of the commercially important bivalve, Mytilus edulis when fed for a limited period (4–6 h day−1). After six months exposure, warming, but not acidification, significantly reduced shell strength determined as reductions in the maximum load endured by the shells. However, acidification resulted in a reduction in shell flex before failure. Reductions in shell strength with warming could not be explained by alterations in morphology, or shell composition but were accompanied by reductions in shell surface area, and by a fall in whole-body condition index. It appears that warming has an indirect effect on shell strength by re-allocating energy from shell formation to support temperature-related increases in maintenance costs, especially as food supply was limited and the mussels were probably relying on internal energy reserves. The maintenance of shell strength despite seawater acidification suggests that biomineralisation processes are unaffected by the associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. We conclude that under near-future climate change conditions, ocean warming will pose a greater risk to shell integrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification when food availability is limited. PMID:24489785

Ocean warming, more than acidification, reduces shell strength in a commercial shellfish species during food limitation.

PubMed

Mackenzie, Clara L; Ormondroyd, Graham A; Curling, Simon F; Ball, Richard J; Whiteley, Nia M; Malham, Shelagh K

2014-01-01

Ocean surface pH levels are predicted to fall by 0.3-0.4 pH units by the end of the century and are likely to coincide with an increase in sea surface temperature of 2-4 °C. The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functional properties of bivalve shells is largely unknown and of growing concern as the shell provides protection from mechanical and environmental challenges. We examined the effects of near-future pH (ambient pH -0.4 pH units) and warming (ambient temperature +4 °C) on the shells of the commercially important bivalve, Mytilus edulis when fed for a limited period (4-6 h day(-1)). After six months exposure, warming, but not acidification, significantly reduced shell strength determined as reductions in the maximum load endured by the shells. However, acidification resulted in a reduction in shell flex before failure. Reductions in shell strength with warming could not be explained by alterations in morphology, or shell composition but were accompanied by reductions in shell surface area, and by a fall in whole-body condition index. It appears that warming has an indirect effect on shell strength by re-allocating energy from shell formation to support temperature-related increases in maintenance costs, especially as food supply was limited and the mussels were probably relying on internal energy reserves. The maintenance of shell strength despite seawater acidification suggests that biomineralisation processes are unaffected by the associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. We conclude that under near-future climate change conditions, ocean warming will pose a greater risk to shell integrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification when food availability is limited.

Warming and Inhibition of Salinization at the Ocean's Surface by Cyanobacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurl, O.; Bird, K.; Cunliffe, M.; Landing, W. M.; Miller, U.; Mustaffa, N. I. H.; Ribas-Ribas, M.; Witte, C.; Zappa, C. J.

2018-05-01

This paper describes high-resolution in situ observations of temperature and, for the first time, of salinity in the uppermost skin layer of the ocean, including the influence of large surface blooms of cyanobacteria on those skin properties. In the presence of the blooms, large anomalies of skin temperature and salinity of 0.95°C and -0.49 practical salinity unit were found, but a substantially cooler (-0.22°C) and saltier skin layer (0.19 practical salinity unit) was found in the absence of surface blooms. The results suggest that biologically controlled warming and inhibition of salinization of the ocean's surface occur. Less saline skin layers form during precipitation, but our observations also show that surface blooms of Trichodesmium sp. inhibit evaporation decreasing the salinity at the ocean's surface. This study has important implications in the assessment of precipitation over the ocean using remotely sensed salinity, but also for a better understanding of heat exchange and the hydrologic cycle on a regional scale.

Is Europa's Subsurface Water Ocean Warm?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melosh, H. J.; Ekholm, A. G.; Showman, A. P.; Lorenz, R. D.

2002-01-01

Europa's subsurface water ocean may be warm: that is, at the temperature of water's maximum density. This provides a natural explanation of chaos melt-through events and leads to a correct estimate of the age of its surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has issued an advisory indicating the presence of a strong El Nino condition throughout the winter.

For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page at http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov

The Question of Future Droughts in a CO2-Warmed World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David

1999-01-01

Increased droughts are to be expected in a warmer world, and so are increased floods. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and evaporate more water from the surface. Thus, when it is not raining, available soil water should be reduced. When it is raining, it could very well rain harder. Most researchers agree then that a warmer world will have greater hydrologic extremes. In addition, there is a basic imbalance that develops as climate warms, between the loss of moisture from the soil by evaporation and replenishment via precipitation. The land has a smaller heat capacity than the ocean, so it should warm faster. Evaporation from the land proceeds at the rate of its warming, while precipitation derives primarily from evaporation at the ocean surface. As the latter is increasing more slowly, in a warmer world, precipitation will not increase as rapidly as evaporation due to the fact that the oceans warm more slowly than the land surface (evaporation over the ocean is slower than over the land). Hence, more droughts are anticipated in a warmer world, but the specific location of such droughts is somewhat uncertain. To address the question of where droughts are likely to occur, one first needs to have a reasonable sense of what the future magnitude of warming will be, and what the latitudinal distribution of warming will be. For example, the greater the warming at high latitudes relative to low latitudes, the more likely there will be increased drought over the U.S. in summer. In contrast, substantial tropical warming could give us El Nino-like precipitation, with intensified flooding along the southern tier of the U.S. All of these conditions are likely to intensify as the global temperature rises.

Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2015-05-01

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Y. Tony; Colberg, Frank

2011-01-01

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2017-03-27

The role of the ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on to the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the dateline owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific-a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño-like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slowmore » patterns is likely resulted from i) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STC) and ii) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña-like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño-like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.« less

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

The role of the ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on to the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the dateline owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific-a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño-like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slowmore » patterns is likely resulted from i) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STC) and ii) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña-like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño-like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.« less

Importance of ocean mesoscale variability for air-sea interactions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putrasahan, D. A.; Kamenkovich, I.; Le Hénaff, M.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-06-01

Mesoscale variability of currents in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can affect oceanic heat advection and air-sea heat exchanges, which can influence climate extremes over North America. This study is aimed at understanding the influence of the oceanic mesoscale variability on the lower atmosphere and air-sea heat exchanges. The study contrasts global climate model (GCM) with 0.1° ocean resolution (high resolution; HR) with its low-resolution counterpart (1° ocean resolution with the same 0.5° atmosphere resolution; LR). The LR simulation is relevant to current generation of GCMs that are still unable to resolve the oceanic mesoscale. Similar to observations, HR exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies, while LR has negative correlation. For HR, we decompose lateral advective heat fluxes in the upper ocean into mean (slowly varying) and mesoscale-eddy (fast fluctuations) components. We find that the eddy flux divergence/convergence dominates the lateral advection and correlates well with the SST anomalies and air-sea latent heat exchanges. This result suggests that oceanic mesoscale advection supports warm SST anomalies that in turn feed surface heat flux. We identify anticyclonic warm-core circulation patterns (associated Loop Current and rings) which have an average diameter of 350 km. These warm anomalies are sustained by eddy heat flux convergence at submonthly time scales and have an identifiable imprint on surface turbulent heat flux, atmospheric circulation, and convective precipitation in the northwest portion of an averaged anticyclone.

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE PAGES

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; ...

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.

PubMed

Huang, Ping; Lin, I-I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

2015-05-18

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.

Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

PubMed Central

Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin; Karl, Thomas R.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Nieves, Veronica; Tung, Ka-Kit; Roemmich, Dean

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.

Connecting tropical climate change with Southern Ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Yen-Ting; Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Kang, Sarah M.

2017-09-01

Under increasing greenhouse gas forcing, climate models project tropical warming that is greater in the Northern than the Southern Hemisphere, accompanied by a reduction in the northeast trade winds and a strengthening of the southeast trades. While the ocean-atmosphere coupling indicates a positive feedback, what triggers the coupled asymmetry and favors greater warming in the northern tropics remains unclear. Far away from the tropics, the Southern Ocean (SO) has been identified as the major region of ocean heat uptake. Beyond its local effect on the magnitude of sea surface warming, we show by idealized modeling experiments in a coupled slab ocean configuration that enhanced SO heat uptake has a profound global impact. This SO-to-tropics connection is consistent with southward atmospheric energy transport across the equator. Enhanced SO heat uptake results in a zonally asymmetric La-Nina-like pattern of sea surface temperature change that not only affects tropical precipitation but also has influences on the Asian and North American monsoons.

A process-level attribution of the annual cycle of surface temperature over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yana; Yang, Song; Deng, Yi; Hu, Xiaoming; Cai, Ming

2017-12-01

The annual cycle of the surface temperature over the Maritime Continent (MC) is characterized by two periods of rapid warming in March-April and September-October, respectively, and a period of rapid cooling in June-July. Based upon an analysis of energy balance within individual atmosphere-surface columns, the seasonal variations of surface temperature in the MC are partitioned into partial temperature changes associated with various radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) processes. The seasonal variations in direct solar forcing and surface latent heat flux show the largest positive contributions to the annual cycle of MC surface temperature while the changes in oceanic dynamics (including ocean heat content change) work against the temperature changes related to the annual cycle. The rapid warming in March-April is mainly a result of the changes in atmospheric quick processes and ocean-atmosphere coupling such as water vapor, surface latent heat flux, clouds, and atmospheric dynamics while the contributions from direct solar forcing and oceanic dynamics are negative. This feature is in contrast to that associated with the warming in September-October, which is driven mainly by the changes in solar forcing with a certain amount of contributions from water vapor and latent heat flux change. More contribution from atmospheric quick processes and ocean-atmosphere coupling in March-April coincides with the sudden northward movement of deep convection belt, while less contribution from these quick processes and coupling is accompanied with the convection belt slowly moving southward. The main contributors to the rapid cooling in June-July are the same as those to the rapid warming in March-April, and the cooling is also negatively contributed by direct solar forcing and oceanic dynamics. The changes in water vapor in all three periods contribute positively to the change in total temperature and they are associated with the change in the location of the center of large-scale moisture convergence during the onset and demise stages of the East Asian summer monsoon.

Insights into Ocean Acidification During the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum from Boron Isotopes at Southern Ocean Site 738

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moebius, I.; Hoenisch, B.; Friedrich, O.

2015-12-01

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is a ~650-kyr interval of global warming, with a brief ~50 ky long peak warming interval, and an abrupt termination. Deep sea and surface ocean temperature evolution across this interval are fairly well constrained, but thus far we have little understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the gradual warming and rapid recovery. Carbonate mass accumulation rates suggest a shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth, and studies on alkenones indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 levels during the MECO. This suggests an increase in surface ocean CO2, and consequently ocean acidification. However, the severity and timing of the proposed ocean acidification with respect to the onset, peak warming and the termination are currently not well resolved. The boron isotopic composition (δ11B) recorded in planktic foraminifer shells offers an opportunity to infer oceanic pH across this interval. We are working on a boron isotope reconstruction from Southern Ocean IODP site 738 and South Atlantic IODP site 1263, covering 42.0 to 38.5 Ma. These sites are characterized by good carbonate preservation and well-defined age models have been established. Additionally, ecology, nutrient content and bottom-water oxygenation have been shown to change significantly across the event towards a more eutrophic, periodically oxygen-depleted environment supporting different biological communities. We selected the planktic foraminifera species Acarinina spinuloinflata for this study because it is symbiont-bearing, suggesting a near-surface habitat and little vertical migration in the water column, and because of its abundance in the samples. δ11B data will be translated to surface ocean pH and atmospheric pCO2 will be approximated to refine knowledge about the carbon cycle during this time. Parallel analysis of two core sites will help to evaluate the tenacity of the data.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

PubMed Central

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C.; Scott, Jeffery R.; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

2014-01-01

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. PMID:24891392

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

PubMed

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

2014-07-13

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

Diurnal warming impacts on atmospheric and oceanic evolution during the suppressed phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayson, C. A.; Roberts, J.

2016-02-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) represents a prominent mode of intraseasonal tropical variability as manifest by coherent large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, convection, and thermodynamic processes. Its impacts are far-reaching with influences on monsoons, flooding, droughts, and tropical storms. The characteristic timescale of the MJO is positioned in a gap between synoptic forecasting and longer range seasonal to interannual predictions, but has been shown to be dependent on diurnally-varying sea surface temperature (SST). In this work, we leverage a wide suite of satellite products with in situ oceanographic data over the 2002-2012 period to investigate the rectification effects of strong ocean diurnal warming onto the development of intraseasonal SST variability, and whether there a detectable influence on the diurnal cycle of cloud-radiative effects in the suppressed phase of the MJO. Diurnally-varying SST is used as a conditional sampling parameter, along with AIRS/AMSU-A temperature and moisture profiles, surface winds, radiative and turbulent surface fluxes, and precipitation. We use composite daily average atmospheric BL depths, changes in lower-tropospheric stability, and moist static energy to evaluate changes in convective inhibition based on the diurnal variability of surface parcel characteristics due to turbulent heat fluxes, and compare with diurnal changes in cloud-radiative effects and precipitation. Argo floats and ocean modeling experiments are used to examine the upper ocean response. An ensemble of MJO simulations are generated using Argo profiles and satellite-derived surface forcing from which the systematic impacts of diurnal variability on the generation of the intraseasonal SST warming are evaluated. These simulations inform the importance of diurnal variations in surface boundary forcing to upper ocean mixing and the integrated contribution to SST warming over the typical duration of a suppressed phase of the MJO.

Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

We investigated the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM Version 3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific from 5oS to 10oS in the first three months. We found this initial bias to be caused by excessive surface shortwave radiation that is also present in the standalone atmospheric model. The initial bias is further amplified by biases in both surface latent heat flux and horizontal heat transport in the upper ocean.more » These biases are caused by the responses of surface winds to SST bias and the thermocline structure to surface wind curls. We also showed that the warming biases in surface solar radiation and latent heat fluxes are seasonally offset by cooling biases from reduced solar radiation after the austral summer due to cloud responses and in the austral fall due to enhanced evaporation when the maximum SST is closest to the equator. The warming biases from the dynamic heat transport by ocean currents however stay throughout all seasons once they are developed, which are eventually balanced by enhanced energy exchange and penetration of solar radiation below the mixed layer. Our results also showed that the equatorial cold tongue develops after the warm biases in the south central Pacific, and the overestimation of surface shortwave radiation recurs in the austral summer in each year.« less

Possible signals of poleward surface ocean heat transport, of Arctic basal ice melt, and of the twentieth century solar maximum in the 1904-2012 Isle of Man daily timeseries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, J. B.; Matthews, J. B. R.

2014-01-01

This is the second of two papers on observational timeseries of top of ocean heat capture. The first reports hourly and daily meridional central tropical Pacific top 3 m timeseries showing high Southern Hemisphere evaporation (2.67 m yr-1) and Northern Hemisphere trapped heat (12 MJ m-2 day-1). We suggested that wind drift/geostrophic stratified gyre circulation transported warm water to the Arctic and led to three phases of Arctic basal ice melt and fluxes of brackish nutrient-rich waters to north Atlantic on centennial timescales. Here we examine daily top metre 1904-2012 timeseries at Isle of Man west coast ~54° N for evidence of tropical and polar surface waters. We compare these to Central England (CET) daily land-air temperatures and to Arctic floating ice heat content and extent. We find three phases of ocean surface heating consistent with basal icemelt buffering greenhouse gas warming until a regime shift post-1986 led to the modern surface temperature rise of ~1 °C in 20 yr. Three phases were: warming +0.018 °C yr-1 from 1904-1939, slight cooling -0.002 °C yr-11940-86 and strong warming +0.037 °C yr-1 1986-2012. For the same periods CET land-air showed: warming +0.015 °C yr-1, slight cooling -0.004 °C yr-1, about half SST warming at +0.018 °C yr-1. The mid-century cooling and a 1959/1963 hot/cold event is consistent with sunspot/solar radiation maximum 1923-2008 leading to record volumes of Arctic ice meltwater and runoff that peaked in 1962/3 British Isles extreme cold winter. The warming Arctic resulted in wind regime and surface water regime shifts post 1986. This coincides with the onset of rapid Arctic annual ice melt. Continued heat imbalance is likely to lead to tidewater glacier basal icemelt and future sealevel rise after remaining relatively stable over 4000 yr. Our work needs confirmation by further fieldwork concentrating on the dynamics and thermodynamics of ocean top 3 m that controls the 93 % anthropogenic global warming in the oceans. This may be done most cost-effectively through focussed multidisciplinary scientific research adaptively managed and funded.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Global Surface Temperature Anomalies and Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrafesa, L. J.

2017-12-01

We study Non-Stationary, Non-Linear time series of global surface temperatures from 1850 to 2016, and via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the buried, internal modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 167 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, both in the ocean and the atmosphere over land, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, annual, inter-annual, multi-year, decadal, multi-decadal, centennial and overall warming trends in the ocean, atmosphere and the combination therein. The oceanic rate of warming is less than two thirds of that of the atmosphere. While our findings on overall trends of fossil fuel burning and planetary temperatures are only visually correlative, by employing a mathematical methodology well known in ergonomics, this study causally links the upward rise in planetary surface temperature from the latter part of the 19th Century and into the 21st Century, to the contemporaneous upward rise in fossil fuel burning and suggests that if present fossil fuel burning is not curtailed there will be continued warming of the planet in the future.

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

PubMed

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-09-13

Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-08-01

Photosynthetic O2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q10 = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O2 production in a warmer ocean. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown

PubMed Central

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-01-01

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a “climate hiatus” of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1–100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101–300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301–700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701–1500 m has experienced significant warming. PMID:26394551

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown.

PubMed

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-09-23

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a "climate hiatus" of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1-100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101-300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301-700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701-1500 m has experienced significant warming.

The Once and Future Battles of Thor and the Midgard Serpent (or the Southern Ocean's Role in Climate)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.

2017-12-01

Floats deployed by oceanographers are giving us all ringside seats to the epic battle between the wind and the deep ocean around Antarctica which will determine the rate of global atmospheric warming over the next century. The poleward-shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds has been shown to maintain the connection between the surface ocean and the atmosphere with the deep ocean even as the surface ocean warms. This "doorway" allows the vast deep ocean reservoir to play a significant role in the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Coupled climate and earth system models at low and high resolution all simulate poleward-shifted and intensified Southern Hemisphere surface westerly winds when subjected to an atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Comparisons of these simulations reveal how stratification, resolution and eddies affect the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases - and our collective fate.

Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Kan; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George; Zhang, Jiachen; Tao, Wei; Cheng, Yanli; Tao, Shu

2017-07-01

The response of surface ozone (O3) concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST variability and continental surface O3 pollution, which should be considered in regional air quality management.

Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

2016-12-01

Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-10-01

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2 doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2 doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high latitudes warm, while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar midtroposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.

Indian Ocean warming during 1958-2004 simulated by a climate system model and its mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo

2014-01-01

The mechanism responsible for Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature (SST) basin-wide warming trend during 1958-2004 is studied based on both observational data analysis and numerical experiments with a climate system model FGOALS-gl. To quantitatively estimate the relative contributions of external forcing (anthropogenic and natural forcing) and internal variability, three sets of numerical experiments are conducted, viz. an all forcing run forced by both anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) and natural forcing (solar constant and volcanic aerosols), a natural forcing run driven by only natural forcing, and a pre-industrial control run. The model results are compared to the observations. The results show that the observed warming trend during 1958-2004 (0.5 K (47-year)-1) is largely attributed to the external forcing (more than 90 % of the total trend), while the residual is attributed to the internal variability. Model results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing accounts for approximately 98.8 % contribution of the external forcing trend. Heat budget analysis shows that the surface latent heat flux due to atmosphere and surface longwave radiation, which are mainly associated with anthropogenic forcing, are in favor of the basin-wide warming trend. The basin-wide warming is not spatially uniform, but with an equatorial IOD-like pattern in climate model. The atmospheric processes, oceanic processes and climatological latent heat flux together form an equatorial IOD-like warming pattern, and the oceanic process is the most important in forming the zonal dipole pattern. Both the anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing result in easterly wind anomalies over the equator, which reduce the wind speed, thereby lead to less evaporation and warmer SST in the equatorial western basin. Based on Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies uplift the thermocline, which is unfavorable to SST warming in the eastern basin, and contribute to SST warming via deeper thermocline in the western basin. The easterly anomalies also drive westward anomalous equatorial currents, against the eastward climatology currents, which is in favor of the SST warming in the western basin via anomalous warm advection. Therefore, both the atmospheric and oceanic processes are in favor of the IOD-like warming pattern formation over the equator.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-09

using observational and reanalysis products , respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to...warming and cooling in these studies . SST is observed to maximize just ahead of MJO convection. After convection begins, SST rapidly cools and reaches a...minimum ~5 days later. However, several studies have observed a certain class of MJO events that deviate from the previously observed relationship of

Ocean sunfish rewarm at the surface after deep excursions to forage for siphonophores.

PubMed

Nakamura, Itsumi; Goto, Yusuke; Sato, Katsufumi

2015-05-01

Ocean sunfish (Mola mola) were believed to be inactive jellyfish feeders because they are often observed lying motionless at the sea surface. Recent tracking studies revealed that they are actually deep divers, but there has been no evidence of foraging in deep water. Furthermore, the surfacing behaviour of ocean sunfish was thought to be related to behavioural thermoregulation, but there was no record of sunfish body temperature. Evidence of ocean sunfish feeding in deep water was obtained using a combination of an animal-borne accelerometer and camera with a light source. Siphonophores were the most abundant prey items captured by ocean sunfish and were typically located at a depth of 50-200 m where the water temperature was <12 °C. Ocean sunfish were diurnally active, made frequently deep excursions and foraged mainly at 100-200 m depths during the day. Ocean sunfish body temperatures were measured under natural conditions. The body temperatures decreased during deep excursions and recovered during subsequent surfacing periods. Heat-budget models indicated that the whole-body heat-transfer coefficient between sunfish and the surrounding water during warming was 3-7 times greater than that during cooling. These results suggest that the main function of surfacing is the recovery of body temperature, and the fish might be able to increase heat gain from the warm surface water by physiological regulation. The thermal environment of ocean sunfish foraging depths was lower than their thermal preference (c. 16-17 °C). The behavioural and physiological thermoregulation enables the fish to increase foraging time in deep, cold water. Feeding rate during deep excursions was not related to duration or depth of the deep excursions. Cycles of deep foraging and surface warming were explained by a foraging strategy, to maximize foraging time with maintaining body temperature by vertical temperature environment. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming.

PubMed

Castillo, Karl D; Ries, Justin B; Bruno, John F; Westfield, Isaac T

2014-12-22

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1-0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1-4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate-suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.

The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming

PubMed Central

Castillo, Karl D.; Ries, Justin B.; Bruno, John F.; Westfield, Isaac T.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1–0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1–4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate—suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species. PMID:25377455

Response to CO2 Transient Increase in the GISS Coupled Model: Regional Coolings in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Rind, David

1999-01-01

The (GISS) Goddard Institute for Space Studies coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to investigate the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 by comparing a compounded 1 percent CO2 increase experiment with a control simulation. After 70 years of integration, the global surface air temperature in the 1 percent CO2 experiment is 1.43 C warmer. In spite of this global warming, there are two distinct regions, the northern Atlantic Ocean and the southern Pacific Ocean, where the surface air temperature is up to 4 C cooler. This situation is maintained by two positive feedbacks: a local effect on convection in the South Pacific and a non-local impact on the meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The poleward transport of latent energy and dry static energy by the atmosphere is greater in the 1 percent CO2 experiment, caused by warming and therefore increased water vapor and greater greenhouse capacity at lower latitudes. The larger atmospheric transports tend to reduce upward vertical fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean surface at high latitudes, which has the effect of stabilizing the ocean, reducing both convection and the thermohaline circulation. With less convection, less warm water is brought up from below, and with a reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (by 30 percent at time of CO2 doubling), the poleward energy transport by the oceans decreases. The colder water then leads to further reductions in evaporation, decreases of salinity at high latitudes, continued stabilization of the ocean, and maintenance of reduced convection and meridional overturning. Although sea ice decreases globally, it increases in the cooling regions which reduces the overall climate sensitivity; its effect is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical warming has been observed over the past several decades; if modeling studies such as this and others which have produced similar effects are valid, these processes may already be beginning.

GLOBAL WARMING. Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating.

PubMed

Nieves, Veronica; Willis, Josh K; Patzert, William C

2015-07-31

Recent modeling studies have proposed different scenarios to explain the slowdown in surface temperature warming in the most recent decade. Some of these studies seem to support the idea of internal variability and/or rearrangement of heat between the surface and the ocean interior. Others suggest that radiative forcing might also play a role. Our examination of observational data over the past two decades shows some significant differences when compared to model results from reanalyses and provides the most definitive explanation of how the heat was redistributed. We find that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated for by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the past decade since 2003. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Increasing, Nov. 10, 1997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Nov. 10, 1997. The volume of extra warm surface water (shown in white) in the core of the El Nino continues to increase, especially in the area between 15 degrees south latitude and 15 degrees north latitude in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 centimeters and 32 cm (6 inches to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it is about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one-and-one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 to 30 degrees Celsius (70 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white areas) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmospheric system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an advisory indicating the presence of a strong El Nino condition throughout the winter.

For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page at http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald Lindsay; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.; Tausnev, Nick; Bauer, Susanne E.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Kelley, Max; Lo, Ken K.; Ruedy, Reto; Shindell, Drew T.;

The 2014-2015 warming anomaly in the Southern California Current System observed by underwater gliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaba, Katherine D.; Rudnick, Daniel L.

2016-02-01

Large-scale patterns of positive temperature anomalies persisted throughout the surface waters of the North Pacific Ocean during 2014-2015. In the Southern California Current System, measurements by our sustained network of underwater gliders reveal the coastal effects of the recent warming. Regional upper ocean temperature anomalies were greatest since the initiation of the glider network in 2006. Additional observed physical anomalies included a depressed thermocline, high stratification, and freshening; induced biological consequences included changes in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll fluorescence. Contemporaneous surface heat flux and wind strength perturbations suggest that local anomalous atmospheric forcing caused the unusual oceanic conditions.

Volcanoes and climate: Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean.

PubMed

Gleckler, P J; Wigley, T M L; Santer, B D; Gregory, J M; Achutarao, K; Taylor, K E

2006-02-09

We have analysed a suite of 12 state-of-the-art climate models and show that ocean warming and sea-level rise in the twentieth century were substantially reduced by the colossal eruption in 1883 of the volcano Krakatoa in the Sunda strait, Indonesia. Volcanically induced cooling of the ocean surface penetrated into deeper layers, where it persisted for decades after the event. This remarkable effect on oceanic thermal structure is longer lasting than has previously been suspected and is sufficient to offset a large fraction of ocean warming and sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic influences.

Bracketing mid-pliocene sea surface temperature: maximum and minimum possible warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry

2004-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Mega-annums (Ma). Pollen records from land based cores and sections, although not as well dated, also show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport is the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. However, despite being a period of global warmth, there exists considerable variability within this interval. Two new SST reconstructions have been created to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene. These data represent the maximum and minimum possible warming recorded within the 3.3 to 3.0 Ma interval.

TOPEX/El Niño Watch - Warm Water Pool is Increasing, Nov. 10, 1997

NASA Image and Video Library

1997-11-20

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Nov. 10, 1997.

Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuijens, Louise; Emanuel, Kerry; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan

2017-11-01

Space-borne observations reveal that 20-40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative-convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of circulations may be revealed from a collocation of space-borne sensors, including the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and upcoming Aeolus missions.

The Impacts of Daily Surface Forcing in the Upper Ocean over Tropical Pacific: A Numerical Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, C.-H.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Li, Xiaofan; Lau, William K.-M.; Laszlo, Istvan; Pinker, Rachel T.

2001-01-01

Tropical Pacific Ocean is an important region that affects global climate. How the ocean responds to the atmospheric surface forcing (surface radiative, heat and momentum fluxes) is a major topic in oceanographic research community. The ocean becomes warm when more heat flux puts into the ocean. The monthly mean forcing has been used in the past years since daily forcing was unavailable due to the lack of observations. The daily forcing is now available from the satellite measurements. This study investigates the response of the upper ocean over tropical Pacific to the daily atmospheric surface forcing. The ocean surface heat budgets are calculated to determine the important processes for the oceanic response. The differences of oceanic responses between the eastern and western Pacific are intensively discussed.

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

Antarctic warming driven by internal Southern Ocean deep convection oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Torge; Pedro, Joel B.; Steig, Eric J.; Jochum, Markus; Park, Wonsun; Rasmussen, Sune O.

2016-04-01

Simulations with the free-running, complex coupled Kiel Climate Model (KCM) show that heat release associated with recurring Southern Ocean deep convection can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of 0.5-2.0 °C. We propose a mechanism connecting the intrinsic ocean variability with Antarctic warming that involves the following three steps: Preconditioning: heat supplied by the lower branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean, trapped by the Weddell Gyre circulation; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the preconditioned, thermally unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice-albedo feedbacks (on annual to decadal timescales) and slower Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to the convective heat release (on multi-decadal to centennial timescales), drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport towards Antarctica resulting in warming over the continent. Further, we discuss the potential role of this mechanism to explain climate variability observed in Antarctic ice-core records.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Warm ocean surface led to ice margin retreat in central-eastern Baffin Bay during the Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oksman, Mimmi; Weckström, Kaarina; Miettinen, Arto; Juggins, Stephen; Divine, Dmitry; Jackson, Rebecca; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Telford, Richard; Kucera, Michal

2017-04-01

The Greenland ice sheet stability is linked to fast-flowing ice streams that are influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at their front. One of the largest ice streams in West Greenland is the Jakobshavn Isbræ, which has been shown to have collapsed at ca. 12.2 kyr BP in the middle of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold period (12.9-11.7 kyr BP). The cause for this collapse is still unknown yet hypotheses, such as warm Atlantic water inflow, have been put forward to explain it. Here we present the first diatom-based high-resolution reconstruction of sea surface conditions in the central-eastern Baffin Bay between 14.0 and 10.2 kyr BP. The sea surface temperatures reveal warmer conditions beginning at ca. 13.4 kyr BP and leading to intensive calving and iceberg discharge from Jakobshavn Isbræ visible as increased sedimentation rates and deposition of coarse-grained material in our sediment stratigraphy. The warm YD ocean surface conditions in Baffin Bay are out of phase with the δ18O record from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and other SST records from northern North-Atlantic. We show that the ocean has had significant interactions with the Greenland ice sheet in the past and emphasize its importance under the current warming of the North Atlantic.

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

2016-03-01

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6-9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong; Chou, Ming-Dah

1998-01-01

The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - October 3, 1997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Oct. 3, 1997 as the warm water associated with El Nino (in white) spreads northward along the entire coast of North America from the equator all the way to Alaska. The warm water pool in tropical Pacific resulting from El Nino seems to have stabilized. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 and 30 C (70 to 85 F), carries the amount of heat equal to 100 times the amount of fossil fuel energy consumed by the entire U.S. population during one year. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an advisory indicating the presence of a strong El Nino condition throughout the coming winter.

For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page at http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

A simple model of the effect of ocean ventilation on ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiga, Balu; Urban, Nathan

2017-11-01

Transport of water from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior is achieved, in large part, by the process of ventilation-a process associated with outcropping isopycnals. Starting from such a configuration of outcropping isopycnals, we derive a simple model of the effect of ventilation on ocean uptake of anomalous radiative forcing. This model can be seen as an improvement of the popular anomaly-diffusing class of energy balance models (AD-EBM) that are routinely employed to analyze and emulate the warming response of both observed and simulated Earth system. We demonstrate that neither multi-layer, nor continuous-diffusion AD-EBM variants can properly represent both surface-warming and the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake. The new model overcomes this deficiency. The simplicity of the models notwithstanding, the analysis presented and the necessity of the modification is indicative of the role played by processes related to the down-welling branch of global ocean circulation in shaping the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake.

Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

1994-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective regions. The positive coupling between SST and the radiative warming of the surface by the water vapor greenhouse effect is also shown to exist on interannual time scales.

A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Lidz, Barbara H.; Hudson, J. Harold; Anderson, Jeffery S.

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.

Sensitivity of the Antarctic surface mass balance to oceanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, C.; Amory, C.; Agosta, C.; Fettweis, X.

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) are suitable numerical tools to study the surface mass balance (SMB) of the wide polar ice sheets due to their high spatial resolution and polar-adapted physics. Nonetheless, RCMs are driven at their boundaries and over the ocean by reanalysis or global climate model (GCM) products and are thus influenced by potential biases in these large-scale fields. These biases can be significant for both the atmosphere and the sea surface conditions (i.e. sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature). With the RCM MAR, a set of sensitivity experiments has been realized to assess the direct response of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet to oceanic perturbations. MAR is forced by ERA-Interim and anomalies based on mean GCM biases are introduced in sea surface conditions. Results show significant increases (decreases) of liquid and solid precipitation due to biases related to warm (cold) oceans. As precipitation is mainly caused by low-pressure systems that intrude into the continent and do not penetrate far inland, coastal areas are more sensitive than inland regions. Furthermore, warm ocean representative biases lead to anomalies as large as anomalies simulated by other RCMs or GCMs for the end of the 21st century.

Evaporation/SST Sensitivity Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO Events as Estimated from the da Silva, Young, Levitus Surface Marine Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Fitzjarrald, D. E.; Sohn, B.-J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Thinning, Feb, 5, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Feb. 5, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The area and volume of the El Nino warm water pool that is affecting global weather patterns remains extremely large, but the pool has thinned along the equator and near the coast of South America. This 'thinning' means that the warm water is not as deep as it was a few months ago. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition that they would expect to see during the ocean's gradual transition back to normal sea level. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through the spring.

For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page at http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov

Multi-sensor Improved Sea-Surface Temperature (MISST) for IOOS - Navy Component

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

application and data fusion techniques. 2. Parameterization of IR and MW retrieval differences, with consideration of diurnal warming and cool-skin effects...associated retrieval confidence, standard deviation (STD), and diurnal warming estimates to the application user community in the new GDS 2.0 GHRSST...including coral reefs, ocean modeling in the Gulf of Mexico, improved lake temperatures, numerical data assimilation by ocean models, numerical

Diversity of deep-water cetaceans in relation to temperature: implications for ocean warming.

PubMed

Whitehead, Hal; McGill, Brian; Worm, Boris

2008-11-01

Understanding the effects of natural environmental variation on biodiversity can help predict response to future anthropogenic change. Here we analyse a large, long-term data set of sightings of deep-water cetaceans from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Seasonal and geographic changes in the diversity of these genera are well predicted by a convex function of sea-surface temperature peaking at c. 21 degrees C. Thus, diversity is highest at intermediate latitudes - an emerging general pattern for the pelagic ocean. When applied to a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global change scenarios, the predicted response is a decline of cetacean diversity across the tropics and increases at higher latitudes. This suggests that deep-water oceanic communities that dominate > 60% of the planet's surface may reorganize in response to ocean warming, with low-latitude losses of diversity and resilience.

Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

2017-12-01

The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

Drivers of Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean surface cooling over the past four decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew

2017-04-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea-ice coverage has increased overall during the past four decades. In contrast, the majority of CMIP5 models simulate a decline. In addition, Southern Ocean surface waters have largely cooled, in stark contrast to almost all historical CMIP5 simulations. Subantarctic Surface Waters have cooled and freshened while waters to the north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current have warmed and increased in salinity. It remains unclear as to what extent the cooling and Antarctic sea-ice expansion is due to natural variability versus anthropogenic forcing; due for example to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is also unclear what the respective role of surface buoyancy fluxes is compared to internal ocean circulation changes, and what the implications are for longer-term climate change in the region. In this presentation we will outline three distinct drivers of recent Southern Ocean surface trends that have each made a significant contribution to regional cooling: (1) wind-driven surface cooling and sea-ice expansion due to shifted westerly winds, (2) teleconnections of decadal variability from the tropical Pacific, and (3) surface cooling and ice expansion due to large-scale Southern Ocean freshening, most likely driven by SAM-related precipitation trends over the open ocean. We will also outline the main reasons why climate models for the most part miss these Southern Ocean cooling trends, despite capturing overall trends in the SAM.

North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of Warm Advection into Europe in Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, Robert; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Wu, M.-L.

2002-01-01

When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

2016-12-01

The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw.

PubMed

Wang, Zhaomin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Guan, Zhaoyong; Sun, Bo; Yang, Xin; Liu, Chengyan

2015-03-10

A prominent feature of recent climatic change is the strong Arctic surface warming that is contemporaneous with broad cooling over much of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Longer global surface temperature observations suggest that this contrasting pole-to-pole change could be a manifestation of a multi-decadal interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw pattern, which is well correlated with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, and thus generally hypothesized to originate from Atlantic meridional overturning circulation oscillations. Here, we show that there is an atmospheric origin for this seesaw pattern. The results indicate that the Southern Ocean surface cooling (warming) associated with the seesaw pattern is attributable to the strengthening (weakening) of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which can be traced to Northern Hemisphere and tropical tropospheric warming (cooling). Antarctic ozone depletion has been suggested to be an important driving force behind the recently observed increase in the Southern Hemisphere's summer westerly winds; our results imply that Northern Hemisphere and tropical warming may have played a triggering role at an stage earlier than the first detectable Antarctic ozone depletion, and enhanced Antarctic ozone depletion through decreasing the lower stratospheric temperature.

Warm Rivers Play Role in Arctic Sea Ice Melt

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-05

Beaufort Sea surface temperatures where Canada Mackenzie River discharges into the Arctic Ocean, measured by NASA MODIS instrument; warm river waters had broken through a shoreline sea ice barrier to enhance sea ice melt.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Satellite shows El Nino-related Sea Surface Height, Mar, 14, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Mar. 14, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that the sea surface height along the central equatorial Pacific has returned to a near normal state. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north and south of the equator. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through the spring.

Climate sensitivity to Arctic seaway restriction during the early Paleogene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Christopher D.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tripati, Aradhna K.

2009-09-01

The opening and closing of ocean gateways affects the global distribution of heat, salt, and moisture, potentially driving climatic change on regional to global scales. Between 65 and 45 million years ago (Ma), during the early Paleogene, exchange between the Arctic and global oceans occurred through two narrow and shallow seaways, the Greenland-Norway seaway and the Turgai Strait. Sediments from the Arctic Ocean suggest that, during this interval, the surface ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions in the Paleogene Arctic remain uncertain. Here we show results from an isotope-enabled, atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, which indicate that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the Arctic seaways. We also present modelled estimates of seawater and calcite δ18O for the Paleogene. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~ 6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2 °C in the North Atlantic and 5-10 °C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We propose that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates and supports a tectonic trigger hypothesis for the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).

Global Sea Surface Temperature and Ecosystem Change Across the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenstra, T. J. T.; Bakker, V. B.; Sangiorgi, F.; Peterse, F.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

2016-12-01

Even though the term Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; ca. 17 to 14 Ma) has been widely used in the literature since the early 1990's, almost no early-middle Miocene sea surface temperature (SST) proxy records have been published that support climate warming across its onset. Benthic (and diagenetically altered planktic) foram δ18O records show a decrease, suggesting (deep) ocean warming and/or Antarctic ice sheet melting. However, reliable absolute SST proxy records are absent from the tropics and very scarce in temperate and polar regions. This leaves the question if the warmth of the MMCO was truly global and how its onset relates to the widely recorded positive (Monterey) carbon isotope excursion and volcanism. Finally, it remains uncertain how marine ecosystems responded to this hypothesized warming. We present organic biomarker SST proxy records (Uk'37 and TEX86) spanning the MMCO for several locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean along a pole-to-pole transect, including Ocean Drilling Program Site 959 in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, ODP Site 643 in the Norwegian Sea, ODP Site 1007 on the Great Bahama Bank and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1352 off New Zealand. Additionally, we use marine palynology (mostly dinoflagellate cysts) to assess ecosystem change at these locations. The resulting spatial reconstruction of SST change shows that Middle Miocene warming was global. Nevertheless, the records also show distinct regional variability, including relatively large warming in the Norwegian Sea and a damped signal in the southern hemisphere, suggesting pronounced changes in ocean circulation. The onset of the MMCO was marked by prominent changes in ecological and depositional setting at the studied sites, likely also related to ocean circulation changes.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Returns to Near Normal State, Mar, 14, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Mar. 14, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that the sea surface height along the central equatorial Pacific has returned to a near normal state. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north and south of the equator. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through the spring.

For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page at http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; ...

2018-03-23

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Can increased poleward oceanic heat flux explain the warm Cretaceous climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

1996-10-01

The poleward transport of heat in the mid-Cretaceous (100 Ma) is examined using an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The oceanic component consists of two zonally averaged basins representing the proto-Pacific and proto-Indian oceans and models the dynamics of the meridional thermohaline circulation. The atmospheric component is a simple energy and moisture balance model which includes the diffusive meridional transport of sensible heat and moisture. The ocean model is spun up with a variety of plausible Cretaceous surface temperature and salinity profiles, and a consistent atmosphere is objectively derived based on the resultant sea surface temperature and the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The coupled model does not exhibit climate drift. Multiple equilibria of the coupled model are found that break the initial symmetry of the ocean circulation; several of these equilibria have one-cell (northern or southern sinking) thermohaline circulation patterns. Two main classes of circulation are found: circulations where the densest water is relatively cool and is formed at the polar latitudes and circulations where the densest water is warm, but quite saline, and the strongest sinking occurs at the tropics. In all cases, significant amounts of warm, saline bottom water are formed in the proto-Indian basin which modify the deepwater characteristics in the larger (proto-Pacific) basin. Temperatures in the deep ocean are warm, 10°-17°C, in agreement with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope data. The poleward transport of heat in the modeled Cretaceous oceans is larger than in some comparable models of the present day thermohaline circulation and significantly larger than estimates of similar processes in the present-day ocean. It is consistently larger in the polar sinking cases when compared with that seen in the tropical sinking cases, but this represents an increase of only 10%. The largest increase over present-day model transports is in the atmospheric latent heat transport, where an increased hydrological cycle (especially in the tropical sinking cases) contributes up to an extra 1 PW of poleward heat transport. Better constraints on the oceanic deepwater circulation during this period are necessary before the meridional circulation can be unambiguously described.

NEOTEC: Negative-CO2-Emissions Marine Energy With Direct Mitigation of Global Warming, Sea-Level Rise and Ocean Acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, G. H.; Baird, J.; Noland, G.

2016-12-01

The vertical thermal energy potential in the ocean is a massive renewable energy resource that is growing due to anthropogenic warming of the surface and near-surface ocean. The conversion of this thermal energy to useful forms via Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) has been demonstrated over the past century, albeit at small scales. Because OTEC removes heat from the surface ocean, this could help directly counter ongoing, deleterious ocean/atmosphere warming. The only other climate intervention that could do this is solar radiation "geoengineering". Conventional OTEC requires energy intensive, vertical movement of seawater resulting in ocean and atmospheric chemistry alteration, but this can be avoided via more energy efficient, vertical closed-cycle heating and cooling of working fluid like CO2 or NH3. An energy carrier such as H2 is required to transport energy optimally extracted far offshore, and methods of electrochemically generating H2 while also consuming CO2 and converting it to ocean alkalinity have been demonstrated. The addition of such alkalinity to the ocean would provide vast, stable, carbon storage, while also helping chemically counter the effects of ocean acidification. The process might currently be profitable given the >$100/tonne CO2 credit offered by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard for transportation fuels like H2. Negative-Emissions OTEC, NEOTEC, thus can potentially provide constant, cost effective, high capacity, negative-emissions energy while: a) reducing surface ocean heat load, b) reducing thermal ocean expansion and sea-level rise, c) utilizing a very large, natural marine carbon storage reservoir, and d) helping mitigate ocean acidification. The technology also avoids the biophysical and land use limitations posed by negative emissions methods that rely on terrestrial biology, such as afforestation and BECCS. NEOTEC and other marine-based, renewable energy and CO2 removal approaches could therefore greatly increase the likelihood of satisfying growing global energy demand while helping to stabilize or reduce atmospheric CO2 and its impacts. Policies supporting the search and evaluation of renewable energy and negative emissions options beyond biotic- and land-based methods are needed.

Decadal slowdown in global air temperature rise triggered by variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, Matthew H.

2015-04-01

Various explanations have been proposed for the recent slowdown in global surface air temperature (SAT) rise, either involving enhanced ocean heat uptake or reduced radiation reaching Earth's surface. Among the mechanisms postulated involving enhanced ocean heat uptake, past work has argued for both a Pacific and Atlantic origin, with additional contributions from the Southern Ocean. Here we examine the mechanisms driving 'hiatus' periods originating out of the Atlantic Ocean. We show that while Atlantic-driven hiatuses are entirely plausible and consistent with known climate feedbacks associated with variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the present climate state is configured to enhance global-average SAT, not reduce it. We show that Atlantic hiatuses are instead characterised by anomalously cool fresh oceanic conditions in the North Atlantic, with the atmosphere advecting the cool temperature signature zonally. Compared to the 1980s and 1990s, however, the mean climate since 2001 has been characterised by a warm saline North Atlantic, suggesting the AMOC cannot be implicated as a direct driver of the current hiatus. We further discuss the impacts of a warm tropical Atlantic on the unprecedented trade wind acceleration in the Pacific Ocean, and propose that this is the main way that the Atlantic has contributed to the present "false pause" in global warming.

Fifty Years of Water Cycle Change expressed in Ocean Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durack, P. J.; Wijffels, S.

2010-12-01

Using over 1.6 million profiles of salinity, potential temperature and density from historical archives and Argo, we derive the global field of linear change for ocean state properties over the period 1950-2008, taking care to minimise aliasing associated with seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation modes. We find large, robust and spatially coherent multi-decadal linear trends in ocean surface salinities. Increases are found in evaporation-dominated regions and freshening in precipitation-dominated regions. The spatial patterns of surface change strongly resemble the climatological mean surface salinity field, consistent with an amplification of the global water cycle. A robust amplification of the mean salinity pattern of 8% (to 200m depth) is found globally and 5-9% is found in each of the 3 key ocean basins. 20th century runs from the CMIP3 model suite support the relationship between amplified patterns of freshwater flux driving an amplified pattern of ocean surface salinity only in models that warm substantially. Models with volcanic aerosols show a diminished warming response and a corresponding weak response in ocean surface salinity change, which implies dampened changes to the global water cycle. The warming response represented in realistic (when compared to observations) 20th century simulations appear quite similar in their broad zonal patterns to those of the projected 21st century simulations, these projected runs being strongly forced by greenhouse gases. This pattern amplification is mostly absent from 20th century simulations which include volcanic forcing. While we confirm that global mean precipitation only weakly change with surface warming (2-3% K-1), the pattern amplification rate in both the freshwater flux and ocean salinity fields indicate larger responses. Our new observed salinity estimates suggest a change of between 8-16% K-1, close to, or greater than, the theoretical response described by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The underestimation of change patterns by the CMIP3 model suite is well documented in recent literature describing changes to the atmospheric and terrestrial arms of the global water cycle. These new observational ocean results add emphasis to the conclusion that the rate of observed changes in the 20th century are larger than CMIP3 models, and simplified physical theories predict. A) The 50-year linear surface salinity trend (pss/50-years). Contours every 0.25 pss are plotted in white. B) Ocean-atmosphere freshwater flux (m3 yr-1) averaged over 1980-1993 (Josey et al., 1998). Contours every 1 m3 yr-1 are in white. On both panels, the 1975 surface mean salinity is contoured black (contour interval 0.5 pss for thin lines, 1 for thick lines).

Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Chandler, M.A.; Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, Gary S.

2005-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) based upon foraminifer, diatom, and ostracod assemblages from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Ma. Pollen records and plant megafossils, although not as well dated, show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport are the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. Despite being a period of global warmth, this interval encompasses considerable variability. Two new SST reconstructions are presented that are designed to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene and to document the spatial distribution and magnitude of SST variability within the mid-Pliocene warm period. These data suggest long-term stability of low-latitude SST and document greater variability in regions of maximum warming. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Deep oceans may acidify faster than anticipated due to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Lui, Hon-Kit; Hsieh, Chia-Han; Yanagi, Tetsuo; Kosugi, Naohiro; Ishii, Masao; Gong, Gwo-Ching

2017-12-01

Oceans worldwide are undergoing acidification due to the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere1-4. The rate of acidification generally diminishes with increasing depth. Yet, slowing down of the thermohaline circulation due to global warming could reduce the pH in the deep oceans, as more organic material would decompose with a longer residence time. To elucidate this process, a time-series study at a climatically sensitive region with sufficient duration and resolution is needed. Here we show that deep waters in the Sea of Japan are undergoing reduced ventilation, reducing the pH of seawater. As a result, the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than the rate at the surface, which is the same as that predicted assuming an air-sea CO2 equilibrium. This reduced ventilation may be due to global warming and, as an oceanic microcosm with its own deep- and bottom-water formations, the Sea of Japan provides an insight into how future warming might alter the deep-ocean acidification.

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

PubMed

Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

2017-09-01

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

Amplified North Atlantic warming in the late Pliocene by changes in Arctic gateways

DOE PAGES

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Jahn, Alexandra; Feng, Ran; ...

2016-12-26

Under previous reconstructions of late Pliocene boundary conditions, climate models have failed to reproduce the warm sea surface temperatures reconstructed in the North Atlantic. Using a reconstruction of mid-Piacenzian paleogeography that has the Bering Strait and Canadian Arctic Archipelago Straits closed, however, improves the simulation of the proxy-indicated warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in the Community Climate System Model. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, by inhibiting freshwater transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading tomore » warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In conclusion, this indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the state of these Arctic gateways for past time periods is needed.« less

Cloud Feedback Key to Marine Heatwave off Baja California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Timothy A.; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Cesana, Gregory V.; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Waliser, Duane E.

2018-05-01

Between 2013 and 2015, the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced the warmest surface temperature anomalies in the modern observational record. This "marine heatwave" marked a shift of Pacific decadal variability to its warm phase and was linked to significant impacts on marine species as well as exceptionally arid conditions in western North America. Here we show that the subtropical signature of this warming, off Baja California, was associated with a record deficit in the spatial coverage of co-located marine boundary layer clouds. This deficit coincided with a large increase in downwelling solar radiation that dominated the anomalous energy budget of the upper ocean, resulting in record-breaking warm sea surface temperature anomalies. Our observation-based analysis suggests that a positive cloud-surface temperature feedback was key to the extreme intensity of the heatwave. The results demonstrate the extent to which boundary layer clouds can contribute to regional variations in climate.

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy

1999-01-01

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Ocean Thermal Energy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkovsky, Boris

1987-01-01

Describes Ocean Thermal Energy Conservation (OTEC) as a method for exploiting the temperature difference between warm surface waters of the sea and its cold depths. Argues for full-scale demonstrations of the technique for producing energy for coastal regions. (TW)

Warm Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkyns, H. C.; Schouten-Huibers, L.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.

2012-02-01

Although a division of the Phanerozoic climatic modes of the Earth into "greenhouse" and "icehouse" phases is widely accepted, whether or not polar ice developed during the relatively warm Jurassic and Cretaceous Periods is still under debate. In particular, there is a range of isotopic and biotic evidence that favours the concept of discrete "cold snaps", marked particularly by migration of certain biota towards lower latitudes. Extension of the use of the palaeotemperature proxy TEX86 back to the Middle Jurassic indicates that relatively warm sea-surface conditions (26-30 °C) existed from this interval (∼160 Ma) to the Early Cretaceous (∼115 Ma) in the Southern Ocean, with a general warming trend through the Late Jurassic followed by a general cooling trend through the Early Cretaceous. The lowest sea-surface temperatures are recorded from around the Callovian-Oxfordian boundary, an interval identified in Europe as relatively cool, but do not fall below 25 °C. The early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event, identified on the basis of published biostratigraphy, total organic carbon and carbon-isotope stratigraphy, records an interval with the lowest, albeit fluctuating Early Cretaceous palaeotemperatures (∼26 °C), recalling similar phenomena recorded from Europe and the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extant belemnite δ18O data, assuming an isotopic composition of waters inhabited by these fossils of -1‰ SMOW, give palaeotemperatures throughout the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous interval that are consistently lower by ∼14 °C than does TEX86 and the molluscs likely record conditions below the thermocline. The long-term, warm climatic conditions indicated by the TEX86 data would only be compatible with the existence of continental ice if appreciable areas of high altitude existed on Antarctica, and/or in other polar regions, during the Mesozoic Era.

Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

El Niño rides again

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friebele, Elaine

Another weather-disrupting El Niño may be brewing in the Pacific Ocean, according to ocean measurements taken by NASA instruments on two orbiting satellites. Sea-surface height measurements taken by the radar altimeter on board the joint U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite and wind data collected by the NASA scatterometer on Japan's Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) have been used together for the first time to predict changing weather conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.El Niño occurs when steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and reverse direction, moving the mass of warm water near Australia eastward to the coast of South America. The displacement of the warm water mass alters the atmospheric jet stream and weather patterns around the world. The TOPEX/Poseidon satellite uses an altimeter to bounce radar signals off the ocean's surface to make precise measurements of the distance between the satellite and sea surface. Researchers then map the barely perceptible hills and valleys of the sea surface by combining these data with measurements pinpointing the satellite's exact location in space.

The influence of meridional ice transport on Europa's ocean stratification and heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Peiyun; Manucharyan, Georgy E.; Thompson, Andrew F.; Goodman, Jason C.; Vance, Steven D.

2017-06-01

Jupiter's moon Europa likely hosts a saltwater ocean beneath its icy surface. Geothermal heating and rotating convection in the ocean may drive a global overturning circulation that redistributes heat vertically and meridionally, preferentially warming the ice shell at the equator. Here we assess the previously unconstrained influence of ocean-ice coupling on Europa's ocean stratification and heat transport. We demonstrate that a relatively fresh layer can form at the ice-ocean interface due to a meridional ice transport forced by the differential ice shell heating between the equator and the poles. We provide analytical and numerical solutions for the layer's characteristics, highlighting their sensitivity to critical ocean parameters. For a weakly turbulent and highly saline ocean, a strong buoyancy gradient at the base of the freshwater layer can suppress vertical tracer exchange with the deeper ocean. As a result, the freshwater layer permits relatively warm deep ocean temperatures.

The influence of meridional ice transport on Europa's ocean stratification and heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, P.; Manucharyan, G.; Thompson, A. F.; Goodman, J. C.; Vance, S.

2017-12-01

Jupiter's moon Europa likely hosts a saltwater ocean beneath its icy surface. Geothermal heating and rotating convection in the ocean may drive a global overturning circulation that redistributes heat vertically and meridionally, preferentially warming the ice shell at the equator. Here we assess thepreviously unconstrained influence of ocean-ice coupling on Europa's ocean stratification and heat transport. We demonstrate that a relatively fresh layer can form at the ice-ocean interface due to a meridional ice transport forced by the differential ice shell heating between the equator and the poles. We provide analytical and numerical solutions for the layer's characteristics, highlighting their sensitivity to critical ocean parameters. For a weakly turbulent and highly saline ocean, a strong buoyancy gradient at the base of the freshwater layer can suppress vertical tracer exchange with the deeper ocean. As a result, the freshwater layer permits relatively warm deep ocean temperatures.

Asynchronous marine-terrestrial signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia associated with low- and high-latitude climate changes.

PubMed

Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Wu, Naiqin; Liu, Zhenxia; Li, Tiegang; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Luo

2013-06-11

A high-resolution multiproxy record, including pollen, foraminifera, and alkenone paleothermometry, obtained from a single core (DG9603) from the Okinawa Trough, East China Sea (ECS), provided unambiguous evidence for asynchronous climate change between the land and ocean over the past 40 ka. On land, the deglacial stage was characterized by rapid warming, as reflected by paleovegetation, and it began ca. 15 kaBP, consistent with the timing of the last deglacial warming in Greenland. However, sea surface temperature estimates from foraminifera and alkenone paleothermometry increased around 20-19 kaBP, as in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Sea surface temperatures in the Okinawa Trough were influenced mainly by heat transport from the tropical western Pacific Ocean by the Kuroshio Current, but the epicontinental vegetation of the ECS was influenced by atmospheric circulation linked to the northern high-latitude climate. Asynchronous terrestrial and marine signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia were thus clearly related to ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. We argue that (i) early warming seawater of the WPWP, driven by low-latitude insolation and trade winds, moved northward via the Kuroshio Current and triggered marine warming along the ECS around 20-19 kaBP similar to that in the WPWP, and (ii) an almost complete shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ca. 18-15 kaBP was associated with cold Heinrich stadial-1 and delayed terrestrial warming during the last deglacial warming until ca. 15 kaBP at northern high latitudes, and hence in East Asia. Terrestrial deglacial warming therefore lagged behind marine changes by ca. 3-4 ka.

Asynchronous marine-terrestrial signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia associated with low- and high-latitude climate changes

PubMed Central

Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Wu, Naiqin; Liu, Zhenxia; Li, Tiegang; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Luo

2013-01-01

A high-resolution multiproxy record, including pollen, foraminifera, and alkenone paleothermometry, obtained from a single core (DG9603) from the Okinawa Trough, East China Sea (ECS), provided unambiguous evidence for asynchronous climate change between the land and ocean over the past 40 ka. On land, the deglacial stage was characterized by rapid warming, as reflected by paleovegetation, and it began ca. 15 kaBP, consistent with the timing of the last deglacial warming in Greenland. However, sea surface temperature estimates from foraminifera and alkenone paleothermometry increased around 20–19 kaBP, as in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Sea surface temperatures in the Okinawa Trough were influenced mainly by heat transport from the tropical western Pacific Ocean by the Kuroshio Current, but the epicontinental vegetation of the ECS was influenced by atmospheric circulation linked to the northern high-latitude climate. Asynchronous terrestrial and marine signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia were thus clearly related to ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. We argue that (i) early warming seawater of the WPWP, driven by low-latitude insolation and trade winds, moved northward via the Kuroshio Current and triggered marine warming along the ECS around 20–19 kaBP similar to that in the WPWP, and (ii) an almost complete shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ca. 18–15 kaBP was associated with cold Heinrich stadial-1 and delayed terrestrial warming during the last deglacial warming until ca. 15 kaBP at northern high latitudes, and hence in East Asia. Terrestrial deglacial warming therefore lagged behind marine changes by ca. 3–4 ka. PMID:23720306

Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

PubMed

Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

2009-11-17

Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

The Role of Ocean Eddies in the Southern Ocean Response to Observed Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgen, S. I.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is crucial to understanding the possible future response to a changing climate. This is a principal region where energy is conveyed to the ocean by the westerly winds and it is here that mesoscale ocean eddies field dominate meridional heat and momentum transport. Compared to the Arctic, the Antarctic and the surrounding SO have a "delayed warming" anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) response. Understanding the role of the ocean dynamics in modulating the mesoscale atmosphere-ocean interactions in the SO in a fully coupled regime is crucial to efforts aimed at predicting the consequences of the warming and variability to the climate system. The response of model run at multiple resolutions (eddy permitting, eddy resolving) to both GHG forcing and historical forcing are examined in NCAR CCSM4 with four experiments. The first simulation, 0.5° atmosphere coupled to ocean and sea ice components with 1° resolution (LR). The second simulation uses the identical atmospheric model but coupled to 0.1° ocean and sea ice component models (HR). For the third and fourth experiments, the global ocean is simulated for LR an HR models, and a climate change scenario are produced by applying a fixed (present-day) CO2 concentration. The analysis focuses on the last 55 years of two individual 155 year simulations. We discuss results from a set of state-of-art model experiments in comparison with observational estimates and explore mechanisms by examining sea surface temperature, westerly winds, surface heat flux, ocean heat transport. In LR simulations, the patterns and mechanisms of SO changes under GHG forcing are similar to those over the historical period: warming is damped southward of the ACC and enhanced to the north, however major changes between the HR simulations are explored. We find that in recent decades the Southern Annual Mode has shown a distinct upward trend, the result of an anthropogenic global warming. Also, HR simulations show that strengthening of the SAM and associated surface wind stress have been invoked to posit enhancement in the strength of the upwelling of the MOC, and increases eddy activity of the ACC. The results also indicate that eddy-permitting models are not able to capture the eddy-driven SST response since ocean dynamics is playing crucial role in the HR simulation but not in the LR models.

Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

2009-01-01

 Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

PubMed Central

González‐Pola, C.; Fernández‐Diaz, J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near‐surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade−1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long‐term hydrographic time‐series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing. PMID:29201584

The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

PubMed

Somavilla, R; González-Pola, C; Fernández-Diaz, J

2017-09-01

Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near-surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade-1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long-term hydrographic time-series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing.

Southern Ocean air-sea heat flux, SST spatial anomalies, and implications for multi-decadal upper ocean heat content trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamsitt, V. M.; Talley, L. D.; Mazloff, M. R.

2014-12-01

The Southern Ocean displays a zonal dipole (wavenumber one) pattern in sea surface temperature (SST), with a cool zonal anomaly in the Atlantic and Indian sectors and a warm zonal anomaly in the Pacific sector, associated with the large northward excursion of the Malvinas and southeastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). To the north of the cool Indian sector is the warm, narrow Agulhas Return Current (ARC). Air-sea heat flux is largely the inverse of this SST pattern, with ocean heat gain in the Atlantic/Indian, cooling in the southeastward-flowing ARC, and cooling in the Pacific, based on adjusted fluxes from the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE), a ⅙° eddy permitting model constrained to all available in situ data. This heat flux pattern is dominated by turbulent heat loss from the ocean (latent and sensible), proportional to perturbations in the difference between SST and surface air temperature, which are maintained by ocean advection. Locally in the Indian sector, intense heat loss along the ARC is contrasted by ocean heat gain of 0.11 PW south of the ARC. The IPCC AR5 50 year depth-averaged 0-700 m temperature trend shows surprising similarities in its spatial pattern, with upper ocean warming in the ARC contrasted by cooling to the south. Using diagnosed heat budget terms from the most recent (June 2014) 6-year run of the SOSE we find that surface cooling in the ARC is balanced by heating from south-eastward advection by the current whereas heat gain in the ACC is balanced by cooling due to northward Ekman transport driven by strong westerly winds. These results suggest that spatial patterns in multi-decadal upper ocean temperature trends depend on regional variations in upper ocean dynamics.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

The Recent Atlantic Cold Anomaly: Causes, Consequences, and Related Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josey, Simon A.; Hirschi, Joel J.-M.; Sinha, Bablu; Duchez, Aurélie; Grist, Jeremy P.; Marsh, Robert

2018-01-01

Cold ocean temperature anomalies have been observed in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic on interannual to centennial timescales. Most notably, a large region of persistently low surface temperatures accompanied by a sharp reduction in ocean heat content was evident in the subpolar gyre from the winter of 2013-2014 to 2016, and the presence of this feature at a time of pervasive warming elsewhere has stimulated considerable debate. Here, we review the role of air-sea interaction and ocean processes in generating this cold anomaly and place it in a longer-term context. We also discuss the potential impacts of surface temperature anomalies for the atmosphere, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and European heat waves; contrast the behavior of the Atlantic with the extreme warm surface event that occurred in the North Pacific over a similar timescale; and consider the possibility that these events represent a response to a change in atmospheric planetary wave forcing.

Impact of the GeoMIP G1 sunshade geoengineering experiment on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Yu; Moore, John C.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Ji, Duoying; Phipps, Steven J.; Lenton, Andrew; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Zhao, Liyun

2017-03-01

We analyze the multi-earth system model responses of ocean temperatures and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under an idealized solar radiation management scenario (G1) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. All models simulate warming of the northern North Atlantic relative to no geoengineering, despite geoengineering substantially offsetting the increases in mean global ocean temperatures. Increases in the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean at the surface (˜0.25 K) and at a depth of 500 m (˜0.10 K) are mainly due to a 10 Wm-2 reduction of total heat flux from ocean to atmosphere. Although the AMOC is slightly reduced under the solar dimming scenario, G1, relative to piControl, it is about 37% stronger than under abrupt4 × CO2 . The reduction of the AMOC under G1 is mainly a response to the heat flux change at the northern North Atlantic rather than to changes in the water flux and the wind stress. The AMOC transfers heat from tropics to high latitudes, helping to warm the high latitudes, and its strength is maintained under solar dimming rather than weakened by greenhouse gas forcing acting alone. Hence the relative reduction in high latitude ocean temperatures provided by solar radiation geoengineering, would tend to be counteracted by the correspondingly active AMOC circulation which furthermore transports warm surface waters towards the Greenland ice sheet, warming Arctic sea ice and permafrost.

Stable near-surface ocean salinity stratifications due to evaporation observed during STRASSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asher, William E.; Jessup, Andrew T.; Clark, Dan

2014-05-01

Under conditions with a large solar flux and low wind speed, a stably stratified warm layer forms at the ocean surface. Evaporation can then lead to an increase in salinity in the warm layer. A large temperature gradient will decrease density enough to counter the density increase caused by the salinity increase, forming a stable positive salinity anomaly at the surface. If these positive salinity anomalies are large in terms of the change in salinity from surface to the base of the gradient, if their areal coverage is a significant fraction of the satellite footprint, and if they persist long enough to be in the satellite field of view, they could be relevant for calibration and validation of L-band microwave salinity measurements. A towed, surface-following profiler was deployed from the N/O Thalassa during the Subtropical Atlantic Surface Salinity Experiment (STRASSE). The profiler measured temperature and conductivity in the surface ocean at depths of 10, 50, and 100 cm. The measurements show that positive salinity anomalies are common at the ocean surface for wind speeds less than 4 m s-1 when the average daily insolation is >300 W m-2 and the sea-to-air latent heat flux is greater than zero. A semiempirical model predicts the observed dependence of measured anomalies on environmental conditions. However, the model results and the field data suggest that these ocean surface salinity anomalies are not large enough in terms of the salinity difference to significantly affect microwave radiometric measurements of salinity.

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Synergistic effects of climate-related variables suggest future physiological impairment in a top oceanic predator.

PubMed

Rosa, Rui; Seibel, Brad A

2008-12-30

By the end of this century, anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions are expected to decrease the surface ocean pH by as much as 0.3 unit. At the same time, the ocean is expected to warm with an associated expansion of the oxygen minimum layer (OML). Thus, there is a growing demand to understand the response of the marine biota to these global changes. We show that ocean acidification will substantially depress metabolic rates (31%) and activity levels (45%) in the jumbo squid, Dosidicus gigas, a top predator in the Eastern Pacific. This effect is exacerbated by high temperature. Reduced aerobic and locomotory scope in warm, high-CO(2) surface waters will presumably impair predator-prey interactions with cascading consequences for growth, reproduction, and survival. Moreover, as the OML shoals, squids will have to retreat to these shallower, less hospitable, waters at night to feed and repay any oxygen debt that accumulates during their diel vertical migration into the OML. Thus, we demonstrate that, in the absence of adaptation or horizontal migration, the synergism between ocean acidification, global warming, and expanding hypoxia will compress the habitable depth range of the species. These interactions may ultimately define the long-term fate of this commercially and ecologically important predator.

Synergistic effects of climate-related variables suggest future physiological impairment in a top oceanic predator

PubMed Central

Rosa, Rui; Seibel, Brad A.

2008-01-01

By the end of this century, anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to decrease the surface ocean pH by as much as 0.3 unit. At the same time, the ocean is expected to warm with an associated expansion of the oxygen minimum layer (OML). Thus, there is a growing demand to understand the response of the marine biota to these global changes. We show that ocean acidification will substantially depress metabolic rates (31%) and activity levels (45%) in the jumbo squid, Dosidicus gigas, a top predator in the Eastern Pacific. This effect is exacerbated by high temperature. Reduced aerobic and locomotory scope in warm, high-CO2 surface waters will presumably impair predator–prey interactions with cascading consequences for growth, reproduction, and survival. Moreover, as the OML shoals, squids will have to retreat to these shallower, less hospitable, waters at night to feed and repay any oxygen debt that accumulates during their diel vertical migration into the OML. Thus, we demonstrate that, in the absence of adaptation or horizontal migration, the synergism between ocean acidification, global warming, and expanding hypoxia will compress the habitable depth range of the species. These interactions may ultimately define the long-term fate of this commercially and ecologically important predator. PMID:19075232

Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Men, Guang; Wan, Xiuquan; Liu, Zedong

2016-10-01

Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

Eocene Temperature Evolution of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramwinckel, M.; Kocken, I.; Agnini, C.; Huber, M.; van der Ploeg, R.; Frieling, J.; Bijl, P.; Peterse, F.; Roehl, U.; Bohaty, S. M.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

2016-12-01

The transition from the early Eocene ( 50 Ma) hothouse towards the Oligocene ( 33 Ma) icehouse was interrupted by the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) ( 40 Ma), a 500,000-year long episode of deep sea and Southern Ocean warming. It remains unclear whether this transient warming event was global, and whether it was caused by changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations or confined to high latitudes resulting from ocean circulation change. Here we show, based on biomarker paleothermometry applied at Ocean Drilling Program Site 959, offshore Ghana, that sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean declined by 7°C over the middle-late Eocene, in agreement with temperature trends documented in the southern high latitudes. In the equatorial Atlantic, this long-term trend was punctuated by 2.5°C warming during the MECO. At the zenith of MECO warmth, changes in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages and laminated sediments at Site 959 point to open ocean hyperstratification and seafloor deoxygenation, respectively. Remarkably, the data reveal that the magnitude of temperature change in the tropics was approximately half that in the Southern Ocean. This suggests that the generally ice free Eocene yielded limited but significant polar amplification of climate change. Crucially, general circulation model (GCM) simulations reveal that the recorded tropical and deep ocean temperature trends are best explained by greenhouse gas forcing, controlling both middle-late Eocene cooling and the superimposed MECO warming.

Global warming and ocean stratification: A potential result of large extraterrestrial impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Manoj; von Glasow, Roland; Smith, Robin S.; Paxton, Charles G. M.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Loptson, Claire; Markwick, Paul

2017-04-01

The prevailing paradigm for the climatic effects of large asteroid or comet impacts is a reduction in sunlight and significant short-term cooling caused by atmospheric aerosol loading. Here we show, using global climate model experiments, that the large increases in stratospheric water vapor that can occur upon impact with the ocean cause radiative forcings of over +20 W m-2 in the case of 10 km sized bolides. The result of such a positive forcing is rapid climatic warming, increased upper ocean stratification, and potentially disruption of upper ocean ecosystems. Since two thirds of the world's surface is ocean, we suggest that some bolide impacts may actually warm climate overall. For impacts producing both stratospheric water vapor and aerosol loading, radiative forcing by water vapor can reduce or even cancel out aerosol-induced cooling, potentially causing 1-2 decades of increased temperatures in both the upper ocean and on the land surface. Such a response, which depends on the ratio of aerosol to water vapor radiative forcing, is distinct from many previous scenarios for the climatic effects of large bolide impacts, which mostly account for cooling from aerosol loading. Finally, we discuss how water vapor forcing from bolide impacts may have contributed to two well-known phenomena: extinction across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary and the deglaciation of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene.

PubMed

Burls, Natalie J; Fedorov, Alexey V; Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H

2017-09-01

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world's largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400-ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE PAGES

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...

2014-12-02

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Modeling geologically abrupt climate changes in the Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, B. J.; Seidov, D.

2010-12-01

The gradual cooling of the Cenozoic, including the Miocene epoch, was punctuated by many geologically abrupt warming and cooling episodes - strong deviations from the cooling trend with time span of ten to hundred thousands of years. Our working hypothesis is that some of those warming episodes at least partially might have been caused by dynamics of the emerging Antarctic Ice Sheet, which, in turn, might have caused strong changes of sea surface salinity in the Miocene Southern Ocean. Feasibility of this hypothesis is explored in a series of coupled ocean-atmosphere computer experiments. The results suggest that relatively small and geologically short-lived changes in freshwater balance in the Southern Ocean could have significantly contributed to at least two prominent warming episodes in the Miocene. Importantly, the experiments also suggest that the Southern Ocean was more sensitive to the salinity changes in the Miocene than today, which can attributed to the opening of the Central American Isthmus as a major difference between the Miocene and the present-day ocean-sea geometry.

Sclerosponges: a key to understanding the influence of global warming on ocean thermocline and mixed layer variability..an example from the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, A.; Sherman, C.; Appeldoorn, R.; Swart, P. K.; Hamann, Y.; Eisenhauer, A.

2009-12-01

We present preliminary oxygen isotope and XRF core-scanner data taken from U/Th dated sclerosponges from a depth transect (0-100m) off southwest Puerto Rico. Combining information from trace elements and oxygen isotopes can give data about temperature and salinity of the water column as a function of depth and time. The sclerosponges were obtained from different depths off the southwest shore of Puerto Rico by a five-member team members consisting of faculty, staff and graduate students of the University of Puerto Rico’s NOAA Coral Reef Ecosystems Studies. They use the latest mixed-gas/rebreather technology capable of reaching depths to 100m. The rate of heat storage in the ocean is one of the most important numbers that is needed to understand the importance of anthropogenic influence on decadal climate change. A number of studies have detected that a warming signal has penetrated into the world's ocean and there is little doubt that there is a human-induced signal in this environment. Nevertheless, the rate and extend of the signal is poorly understood. Most of the observational data used to determine the extent of ocean warming comes from the surface of the oceans and even this dataset has limitations because of possible temperature biases associated with differing instrumentation. Data below the ocean surface is much sparser. The fact that little data exists from ocean depth imposes severe limitation on the assessment of the long-term temperature variability. One way to improve our understanding of ocean warming is to use paleo-archives which can document the temperature record of the oceans beyond that which is available from instruments. Sclerosponges are widely spread throughout the world ocean to a depth of 200m. Because sclerosponges do not depend on photosynthesis they can live in deep water. Ceraptorella nicholsoni is present in tropical reef caves and at the deeper slopes of the Caribbean and Bahamas. It grows very slowly at rates of 0.1-0.4 mm/y. Their lateral and vertical coverage is important because they can give information about the expansion of the mixed layer and vertical movement of the thermocline as a result of warming in differing ocean basins.

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific in post-El Niño summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.; DU, Y.; Hu, K.; Chowdary, J. S.; Huang, G.

2016-12-01

El Niño typically peaks in boreal winter, and the associated equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signal dissipates before subsequent summer. Its impact, however, outlasts until boreal summer in the Indo-western Pacific, featuring basin-wide Indian Ocean warming and tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling accompanied by the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern with surface anomalous anticyclone (AAC) extending from the Philippine Sea to the northern Indian Ocean. Two formation mechanisms have been proposed for these climate anomalies in post-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) summer. One hypothesis invokes the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback in the tropical Northwestern Pacific, while the other points to inter-basin feedback between the Indian Ocean and tropical Northwestern Pacific. Based on a coupled model experiment, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled mode that synthesizes the two mechanisms. This Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode evolves seasonally from spring to summer under seasonal migration of background state. In spring, the WES feedback is operative in association with the tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling, while in summer the Indian Ocean warming and the inter-basin interaction maintains the AAC. While the IPOC mode is independent of ENSO in mechanism, ENSO can drive this mode in its decay phase. This excitation, however, has undergone substantial interdecadal modulations, depending on ENSO amplitude and persistence of Indian Ocean warming. The ENSO-IPOC correlation is high after the mid-1970s and at the beginning of the 20th century, but low in between.

Decadal prediction skill using a high-resolution climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Coquart, Laure; Maisonnave, Éric; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie

2017-11-01

The ability of a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (with a horizontal resolution of a quarter of a degree in the ocean and of about 0.5° in the atmosphere) to predict the annual means of temperature, precipitation, sea-ice volume and extent is assessed based on initialized hindcasts over the 1993-2009 period. Significant skill in predicting sea surface temperatures is obtained, especially over the North Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. The Sea Ice Extent and volume are also reasonably predicted in winter (March) and summer (September). The model skill is mainly due to the external forcing associated with well-mixed greenhouse gases. A decrease in the global warming rate associated with a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is simulated by the model over a suite of 10-year periods when initialized from starting dates between 1999 and 2003. The model ability to predict regional change is investigated by focusing on the mid-90's Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre warming. The model simulates the North Atlantic warming associated with a meridional heat transport increase, a strengthening of the North Atlantic current and a deepening of the mixed layer over the Labrador Sea. The atmosphere plays a role in the warming through a modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: a negative sea level pressure anomaly, located south of the subpolar gyre is associated with a wind speed decrease over the subpolar gyre. This leads to a reduced oceanic heat-loss and favors a northward displacement of anomalously warm and salty subtropical water that both concur to the subpolar gyre warming. We finally conclude that the subpolar gyre warming is mainly triggered by ocean dynamics with a possible contribution of atmospheric circulation favoring its persistence.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - October 23, 1997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Oct. 23, 1997 as the warm water associated with El Nino (in white) spreads northward along the entire coast of North America from the equator all the way to Alaska. The warm water pool associated with the El Nino has returned to the volume it was in mid-September after dropping to a temporary low at the beginning of October. The sea surface elevation just north of the El Nino warm pool continues to drop (purple area), enhancing the eastward flowing North Equatorial Counter Current. The intensification of this current is another tell-tale sign of the El Nino phenomenon. This flow contributes to the rise in sea level along the western coasts of the Americas that will progress towards both the north and south poles over the next several months. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21-30 degrees Celsius (70- 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has issued an advisory indicating the presence of a strong El Nino condition throughout the winter.

For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page at http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/

Air-sea heat flux climatologies in the Mediterranean Sea: Surface energy balance and its consistency with ocean heat storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiangzhou; Yu, Lisan

2017-05-01

This study provides an analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface energy budget using nine surface heat flux climatologies. The ensemble mean estimation shows that the net downward shortwave radiation (192 ± 19 W m-2) is balanced by latent heat flux (-98 ± 10 W m-2), followed by net longwave radiation (-78 ± 13 W m-2) and sensible heat flux (-13 ± 4 W m-2). The resulting net heat budget (Qnet) is 2 ± 12 W m-2 into the ocean, which appears to be warm biased. The annual-mean Qnet should be -5.6 ± 1.6 W m-2 when estimated from the observed net transport through the Strait of Gibraltar. To diagnose the uncertainty in nine Qnet climatologies, we constructed Qnet from the heat budget equation by using historic hydrological observations to determine the heat content changes and advective heat flux. We also used the Qnet from a data-assimilated global ocean state estimation as an additional reference. By comparing with the two reference Qnet estimates, we found that seven products (NCEP 1, NCEP 2, CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP) overestimate Qnet, with magnitude ranging from 6 to 27 W m-2, while two products underestimate Qnet by -6 W m-2 (JRA55) and -14 W m-2 (CORE.2). Together with the previous warm pool work of Song and Yu (2013), we show that CFSR, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP are warm-biased not only in the western Pacific warm pool but also in the Mediterranean Sea, while CORE.2 is cold-biased in both regions. The NCEP 1, 2, and ERA-Interim are cold-biased over the warm pool but warm-biased in the Mediterranean Sea.

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

Forcing of global ocean ice models using an atmospheric boundary layer model: assessing consequences for the simulation of the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, R.; Boning, C. W.

2016-02-01

Current practice in ocean-only model simulations is to force the ocean with a prescribed atmospheric state using bulk formulations. This practice provides a strong thermal restoring to the surface ocean with a typical time-scale of one month. In the real ocean a positive feedback (salinity advection) and a negative feedback (temperature advection) are associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The surface branch of the AMOC transports warm and salty (relative to the mean conditions) to the subpolar North Atlantic and mix with the near-surface waters. A strong AMOC would therefore warm the subpolar North Atlantic, decrease deep water formation and also reduce AMOC strength (negative feedback). This negative feedback is diminished due to the surface forcing formulation and makes the system excessively sensitive to details in the freshwater fluxes . Instead, additional and unrealistic Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) restoring is applied. There have been several suggestions during the last 20 years for at least partially alleviating the problem. This includes some simplified model of the atmospheric mixed layer (AML) (CheapAML; Deremble et al., 2013) with prescribed winds which allows some feedback of SST anomalies on the near-surface air temperature and humidity needed to calculate the turbulent surface fluxes. We show that if the turbulent heat fluxes are modelled by the simple AML model net-fluxes get more realistic. Commonly ocean models experience an AMOC slowdown if SSS restoring is turned off. In the new system (ORCA05 with turbulent fluxes from CheapAML) this slowdown can be eliminated.

Interbasin effects of the Indian Ocean on Pacific decadal climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Ishii, Masayoshi

2016-07-01

We demonstrate the significant impact of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific climate on decadal timescales by comparing two sets of data assimilation experiments (pacemaker experiments) conducted over recent decades. For the Indian Ocean of an atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate model, we assimilate ocean temperature and salinity anomalies defined as deviations from climatology or as anomalies with the area-averaged changes for the Indian Ocean subtracted. When decadal sea surface temperature (SST) trends are observed to be strong over the Indian Ocean, the equatorial thermocline uniformly deepens, and the model simulates the eastward tendencies of surface wind aloft. Surface winds strongly converge around the maritime continent, and the associated strengthening of the Walker circulation suppresses an increasing trend in the equatorial Pacific SST through ocean thermocline shoaling, similar to common changes associated with seasonal Indian Ocean warming.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

DOE PAGES

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; ...

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less

Aerobic Marine Habitat Loss During the Late Permian Extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penn, J. L.; Deutsch, C.; Payne, J.; Sperling, E. A.

2016-12-01

Rapid climate change at the end of the Permian is thought to have triggered the most severe mass extinction in Earth's history, but the precise mechanism of biodiversity loss is unknown. Geological evidence points to lethally hot equatorial temperatures and an expansion of anoxic ocean waters as likely culprits. However, previous climate model simulations of the warm Early Triassic exhibit weak tropical warming, and anoxic conditions require a massive and unconstrained increase in the ocean nutrient reservoir. Reconciling model predictions with the geologic record remains a key challenge to identifying the kill-mechanism, which must also take into account the role of animal physiology. Here we apply a recently developed index for the metabolic scope of marine animals to the first global climate simulations of the Permian-Triassic transition to quantify the effects of ocean warming and oxygen (O2) depletion on aerobic habitat availability. Forcing with extreme CO2 concentrations warms the surface ocean by over 10oC, consistent with paleoproxies for upper ocean temperature change. Warming depletes global O2, with greatest losses occuring in tropical deep waters as a result of their reduced ventilation. Together warming and deoxygenation would have constricted the occurrence of marine habitat by 80% globally, by decreasing the metabolic index of the Permian ocean. These changes are most pronounced in the tropics where the fossil record suggests recovery was severely inhibited. Fossil deposits also record changes in animal body size across the extinction. We find that adaptation via body size reductions can compensate for increasing hypoxia at high latitudes, and even prevent extinction there, but cannot maintain the habitability of the tropics.

Structure and Dynamics of Decadal Anomalies in the Wintertime Midlatitude North Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, J.

2017-12-01

The structure and dynamics of decadal anomalies in the wintertime midlatitude North Pacific ocean- atmosphere system are examined in this study, using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis, HadISST SST and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data for 1960-2010. The midlatitude decadal anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are identified, being characterized by an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low (high) pressure over a cold (warm) oceanic surface. Such a unique configuration of decadal anomalies can be maintained by an unstable ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the midlatitudes, which is hypothesized as follows. Associated with a warm PDO phase, an initial midlatitude surface westerly anomaly accompanied with intensified Aleutian low tends to force a negative SST anomaly by increasing upward surface heat fluxes and driving southward Ekman current anomaly. The SST cooling tends to increase the meridional SST gradient, thus enhancing the subtropical oceanic front. As an adjustment of the atmospheric boundary layer to the enhanced oceanic front, the low-level atmospheric meridional temperature gradient and thus the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity tend to be strengthened, inducing more active transient eddy activities that increase transient eddy vorticity forcing. The vorticity forcing that dominates the total atmospheric forcing tends to produce an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low pressure north of the initial westerly anomaly, intensifying the initial anomalies of the midlatitude surface westerly and Aleutian low. Therefore, it is suggested that the midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction can provide a positive feedback mechanism for the development of initial anomaly, in which the oceanic front and the atmospheric transient eddy are the indispensable ingredients. Such a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanism is fundamentally responsible for the observed decadal anomalies in the midlatitude North Pacific ocean-atmosphere system.

Enceladus: Starting Hydrothermal Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matson, D. L.; Castillo-Rogez, J. C.; Johnson, T. V.; Lunine, J. I.; Davies, A. G.

2011-01-01

We describe a process for starting the hydrothermal activity in Enceladus' South Polar Region. The process takes advantage of fissures that reach the water table, about 1 kilometer below the surface. Filling these fissures with fresh ocean water initiates a flow of water up from an ocean that can be self-sustaining. In this hypothesis the heat to sustain the thermal anomalies and the plumes comes from a slightly warm ocean at depth. The heat is brought to the surface by water that circulates up, through the crust and then returns to the ocean.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Slow and Steady: Ocean Circulation. The Influence of Sea Surface Height on Ocean Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haekkinen, Sirpa

2000-01-01

The study of ocean circulation is vital to understanding how our climate works. The movement of the ocean is closely linked to the progression of atmospheric motion. Winds close to sea level add momentum to ocean surface currents. At the same time, heat that is stored and transported by the ocean warms the atmosphere above and alters air pressure distribution. Therefore, any attempt to model climate variation accurately must include reliable calculations of ocean circulation. Unlike movement of the atmosphere, movement of the ocean's waters takes place mostly near the surface. The major patterns of surface circulation form gigantic circular cells known as gyres. They are categorized according to their general location-equatorial, subtropical, subpolar, and polar-and may run across an entire ocean. The smaller-scale cell of ocean circulation is known' as an eddy. Eddies are much more common than gyres and much more difficult to track in computer simulations of ocean currents.

El Ni?o Pumping Up, Warm Kelvin Wave Surges Toward South America

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-11-12

ElNi?o is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Sea-level height data from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show the equatorial Pacific has triggered a wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave.

El Niño Surges; Warm Kelvin Wave Headed for South America

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-12-17

The most recent sea-level height data from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show the continued eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave, now approaching South America.

Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

PubMed

Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

2015-06-01

Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

ENSO Transition Asymmetry: Internal and External Causes and Intermodel Diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Soon-Il; Kim, Ji-Won

2018-05-01

El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña, but the opposite case rarely happens. Here we explore a mechanism for such an asymmetrical transition and its future changes. Internally, the asymmetrical response of upper ocean waves against surface wind stress anomaly exerts a primary cause of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition asymmetry. Externally, the asymmetrical capacitor effects of both Indian and Atlantic Oceans play some roles in driving the ENSO transition asymmetry via the interbasin interactions. The historical runs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 show that the intermodel transition asymmetry is significantly correlated with the intermodel asymmetry in ocean wave response to surface wind forcing but not with that in the interbasin interactions. In addition, the El Niño-to-La Niña transition tendency was weaker in moderate global warming scenario runs (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) while slightly enhanced in strong warming scenario runs (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Similar changes also appeared in the asymmetrical response of ocean waves against the surface wind forcing.

Modeling the air-sea feedback system of Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullen, Julie; Caldeira, Rui; Doyle, James D.; May, Paul; Tomé, Ricardo

2017-07-01

A realistic nested data-assimilating two-way coupled ocean/atmosphere modeling study (highest resolution 2 km) of Madeira Island was conducted for June 2011, when conditions were favorable for atmospheric vortex shedding. The simulation's island lee region exhibited relatively cloud-free conditions, promoting warmer ocean temperatures (˜2°C higher than adjacent waters). The model reasonably reproduced measured fields at 14 meteorological stations, and matched the dimensions and magnitude of the warm sea surface temperature (SST) wake imaged by satellite. The warm SSTs in the wake are shown to imprint onto the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over several diurnal cycles by modulating the ABL depth up to ˜200-500 m. The erosion and dissipation of the warm ocean wake overnight was aided by atmospheric drainage flow and offshore advection of cold air (ΔT = 2°C) that produced strong upward heat fluxes (˜50 W/m2 sensible and ˜250 W/m2 latent) on an episodic basis. Nevertheless, the warm wake was never entirely eroded at night due to the cumulative effect of the diurnal cycle. The spatial pattern of the diurnal warming varied day-to-day in location and extent. Significant mutual interaction of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers was diagnosed via fluxes and temperature cross sections and reinforced by sensitivity runs. The simulation produces for the first time the interactive nature of the ocean and atmosphere boundary layers in the warm wake region of an island with complex terrain.

Open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system

DOEpatents

Wittig, J. Michael

1980-01-01

An improved open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system including a flash evaporator for vaporizing relatively warm ocean surface water and an axial flow, elastic fluid turbine having a vertical shaft and axis of rotation. The warm ocean water is transmitted to the evaporator through a first prestressed concrete skirt-conduit structure circumferentially situated about the axis of rotation. The unflashed warm ocean water exits the evaporator through a second prestressed concrete skirt-conduit structure located circumferentially about and radially within the first skirt-conduit structure. The radially inner surface of the second skirt conduit structure constitutes a cylinder which functions as the turbine's outer casing and obviates the need for a conventional outer housing. The turbine includes a radially enlarged disc element attached to the shaft for supporting at least one axial row of radially directed blades through which the steam is expanded. A prestressed concrete inner casing structure of the turbine has upstream and downstream portions respectively situated upstream and downstream from the disc element. The radially outer surfaces of the inner casing portions and radially outer periphery of the axially interposed disc cooperatively form a downwardly radially inwardly tapered surface. An annular steam flowpath of increasing flow area in the downward axial direction is radially bounded by the inner and outer prestressed concrete casing structures. The inner casing portions each include a transversely situated prestressed concrete circular wall for rotatably supporting the turbine shaft and associated structure. The turbine blades are substantially radially coextensive with the steam flowpath and receive steam from the evaporator through an annular array of prestressed concrete stationary vanes which extend between the inner and outer casings to provide structural support therefor and impart a desired flow direction to the steam.

Quantifying the processes controlling intraseasonal mixed-layer temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Tong; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Guan, Bin

2015-02-01

Spatial and temporal variation of processes that determine ocean mixed-layer (ML) temperature (MLT) variability on the timescale of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are examined in a heat-conserving ocean state estimate for years 1993-2011. We introduce a new metric for representing spatial variability of the relative importance of processes. In general, horizontal advection is most important at the Equator. Subsurface processes and surface heat flux are more important away from the Equator, with surface heat flux being the more dominant factor. Analyses at key sites are discussed in the context of local dynamics and literature. At 0°, 80.5°E, for MLT events > 2 standard deviations, ocean dynamics account for more than two thirds of the net tendency during cooling and warming phases. Zonal advection alone accounts for ˜40% of the net tendency. Moderate events (1-2 standard deviations) show more differences between events, and some are dominated by surface heat flux. At 8°S, 67°E in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) area, surface heat flux accounts for ˜70% of the tendency during strong cooling and warming phases; subsurface processes linked to ML depth (MLD) deepening (shoaling) during cooling (warming) account for ˜30%. MLT is more sensitive to subsurface processes in the SCTR, due to the thin MLD, thin barrier layer and raised thermocline. Results for 8°S, 67°E support assertions by Vialard et al. (2008) not previously confirmed due to measurement error that prevented budget closure and the small number of events studied. The roles of MLD, barrier layer thickness, and thermocline depth on different timescales are examined.

Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Li, Chongyin

2018-04-01

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300-700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

2018-01-01

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

Warm Ocean Temperatures Blanket the Far-Western Pacific

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-03-28

Data taken during a 10-day collection cycle ending March 9, 2001, show that above-normal sea-surface heights and warmer ocean temp. red and white areas still blanket the far-western tropical Pacific and much of the north and south mid-Pacific.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Durack, Paul J; Wijffels, Susan E; Matear, Richard J

2012-04-27

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.

Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Z.; Lee, S. K.; Wang, C.; Kirtman, B. P.; Qiao, F.

2016-02-01

In order to identify and quantify intrinsic errors in the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and their contributions to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias in CESM1, we propose a new method of diagnosis and apply it to a set of CESM1 simulations. Our analyses of the model simulations indicate that both the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of CESM1 contain large errors in the tropical Atlantic. When the two model components are fully coupled, the intrinsic errors in the two components emerge quickly within a year with strong seasonality in their growth rates. In particular, the ocean-sea ice model contributes significantly in forcing the eastern equatorial Atlantic warm SST bias in early boreal summer. Further analysis shows that the upper thermocline water underneath the eastern equatorial Atlantic surface mixed layer is too warm in a stand-alone ocean-sea ice simulation of CESM1 forced with observed surface flux fields, suggesting that the mixed layer cooling associated with the entrainment of upper thermocline water is too weak in early boreal summer. Therefore, although we acknowledge the potential importance of the westerly wind bias in the western equatorial Atlantic and the low-level stratus cloud bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, both of which originate from the atmosphere-land model, we emphasize here that solving those problems in the atmosphere-land model alone does not resolve the equatorial Atlantic warm bias in CESM1.

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, theworld’s largest ocean,where relatively fresh surface waters inhibitNorth Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanyingmore » pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redoxsensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.« less

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

PubMed Central

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H.

2017-01-01

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world’s largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming. PMID:28924606

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

DOE PAGES

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.; ...

2017-09-13

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, theworld’s largest ocean,where relatively fresh surface waters inhibitNorth Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanyingmore » pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redoxsensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.« less

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ISSUES IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN REGION

EPA Science Inventory

Mounting evidence from both instrumental and proxy records shows global climate continues to change. nalysis of near-surface temperatures over land and oceans during the past 130 years shows marked warming during the first half of this century with relatively steady temperatures ...

Mechanistic insights into a hydrate contribution to the Paleocene-Eocene carbon cycle perturbation from coupled thermohydraulic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minshull, T. A.; Marín-Moreno, H.; Armstrong McKay, D. I.; Wilson, P. A.

2016-08-01

During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the carbon isotopic signature (δ13C) of surface carbon-bearing phases decreased abruptly by at least 2.5 to 3.0‰. This carbon isotope excursion (CIE) has been attributed to widespread methane hydrate dissociation in response to rapid ocean warming. We ran a thermohydraulic modeling code to simulate hydrate dissociation due to ocean warming for various PETM scenarios. Our results show that hydrate dissociation in response to such warming can be rapid but suggest that methane release to the ocean is modest and delayed by hundreds to thousands of years after the onset of dissociation, limiting the potential for positive feedback from emission-induced warming. In all of our simulations at least half of the dissociated hydrate methane remains beneath the seabed, suggesting that the pre-PETM hydrate inventory needed to account for all of the CIE is at least double that required for isotopic mass balance.

Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.

Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

PubMed

Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

2014-07-03

Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial.

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

PubMed

Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Byfield, Valborg; Cochrane, Kevern; Coward, Andrew C; Salim, Shyam S; Gasalla, Maria A; Henson, Stephanie A; Hobday, Alistair J; Pecl, Gretta T; Sauer, Warwick H; Roberts, Michael J

2016-06-01

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-08-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-02-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Insights into ice-ocean interactions and fjord circulation from fjord sea surface temperatures at the Petermann Glacier, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, T.; Shepherd, B.; Abdalati, W.; Scambos, T. A.

2016-12-01

Dynamic processes at marine-terminating outlet glaciers are responsible for over one-third of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) mass loss. Enhanced intrusion of warm ocean waters at the termini of these glaciers has contributed to elevated rates of ice thinning and terminus retreat over the last two decades. In situ oceanographic measurements and modeling studies show that basal melting of glaciers and subglacial discharge can cause buoyant plumes of water to rise to the fjord surface and influence fjord circulation characteristics. The temperature of these surface waters holds clues about ice-ocean interactions and small-scale circulation features along the glacier terminus that could contribute to outlet glacier mass loss, but the magnitude and duration of temperature variability remains uncertain. Satellite remote sensing has proven very effectiver for acquiring sea surface temperatuer (SST) data from these remote regions on a long-term, consistent basis and shows promise for identifying temperature anomalies at the ice front. However, these data sets have not been widely utilized to date. Here, we use satellite-derived sea surface temperatures to identify fjord surface outflow characteristics from 2000 to present at the Petermann Glacier, which drains 4% of the GIS and is experiencing 80% of its mass loss from basal melt. We find a general SST warming trend that coincides with early sea ice breakup and precedes two major calving events and ice speedup that began in 2010. Persistent SST anomalies along the terminus provide evidence of warm outflow that is consistent with buoyant plume model predictions. However, the anomalies are not evident early in the time series, suggesting that ocean inflow and ice-ocean interactions have experienced a regime shift since 2000. Our results provide valuable insight into fjord circulation patterns and the forcing mechanisms that contribute to terminus retreat. Comparing our results to ongoing modeling experiments, time series from other outlet glaciers, and coincident in situ measurements, will help to further explain the physical processes occurring at the ice-ocean boundary and provide useful insights into the changes taking place at other GIS marine-terminating outlet glaciers.

Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Caldeira, Ken; MacMartin, Douglas G.

The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition into a seasonally ice-free state by mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and leading to substantial ecological and socio-economic challenges across the Arctic region. It has been proposed that artificially increasing high latitude ocean albedo could restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of such a strategy have not been previously explored. Motivated by this, we investigate the impacts of idealized high latitude ocean albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration and climate. In our simulated 4xCO₂ climate, imposing surface albedo alterations over the Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery and a modestmore » reduction in Arctic warming. With the most extreme ocean albedo changes, imposed over the area 70°–90°N, September sea ice cover stabilizes at ~40% of its preindustrial value (compared to ~3% without imposed albedo modifications). This is accompanied by an annual mean Arctic surface temperature decrease of ~2 °C but no substantial global mean temperature decrease. Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery alter climate outside the Arctic region too, affecting precipitation distribution over parts of the continental United States and Northeastern Pacific. For example, following sea ice recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions are present in the Southwest United States while the East Coast experiences cooling. We conclude that although ocean albedo alteration could lead to some sea ice recovery, it does not appear to be an effective way of offsetting the overall effects of CO₂ induced global warming.« less

Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate

DOE PAGES

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Caldeira, Ken; MacMartin, Douglas G.

2015-04-01

The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition into a seasonally ice-free state by mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and leading to substantial ecological and socio-economic challenges across the Arctic region. It has been proposed that artificially increasing high latitude ocean albedo could restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of such a strategy have not been previously explored. Motivated by this, we investigate the impacts of idealized high latitude ocean albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration and climate. In our simulated 4xCO₂ climate, imposing surface albedo alterations over the Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery and a modestmore » reduction in Arctic warming. With the most extreme ocean albedo changes, imposed over the area 70°–90°N, September sea ice cover stabilizes at ~40% of its preindustrial value (compared to ~3% without imposed albedo modifications). This is accompanied by an annual mean Arctic surface temperature decrease of ~2 °C but no substantial global mean temperature decrease. Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery alter climate outside the Arctic region too, affecting precipitation distribution over parts of the continental United States and Northeastern Pacific. For example, following sea ice recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions are present in the Southwest United States while the East Coast experiences cooling. We conclude that although ocean albedo alteration could lead to some sea ice recovery, it does not appear to be an effective way of offsetting the overall effects of CO₂ induced global warming.« less

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2003-01-01

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

Enhanced Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Its Relation to Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Perez, Gay Jane P.; Stock, Larry V.

2015-01-01

Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Visayan Islands in the Philippines on November 8, 2013 was recorded as the strongest typhoon ever-observed using satellite data. Typhoons in the region usually originate from the mid-Pacific region that includes the Warm Pool, which is regarded as the warmest ocean surface region globally. Two study areas were considered: one in the Warm Pool Region and the other in the West Pacific Region near the Philippines. Among the most important factors that affect the strength of a typhoon are sea surface temperature (SST) and water vapor. It is remarkable that in November 2013 the average SST in the Warm Pool Region was the highest observed during the 1981 to 2014 period while that of the West Pacific Region was among the highest as well. Moreover, the increasing trend in SST was around 0.20C per decade in the warm pool region and even higher at 0.23C per decade in the West Pacific region. The yearly minimum SST has also been increasing suggesting that the temperature of the ocean mixed layer is also increasing. Further analysis indicated that water vapor, clouds, winds and sea level pressure for the same period did not reveal strong signals associated with the 2013 event. The SST is shown to be well-correlated with wind strength of historically strong typhoons in the country and the observed trends in SST suggest that extremely destructive typhoons like Haiyan are likely to occur in the future.

Subtropical Gyre Variability as Seen from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, Sergio R.; McClain, Charles R.

2011-01-01

A satellite multi-sensor approach is used to analyse the biological response of open ocean regions of the subtropical gyres to changes in physical forcing. Thirteen years (1998-2010) of SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (Chl-a), combined with concurrent satellite records of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea level height, were analysed to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of Chl-a concentration within these immense so-called ocean deserts. The seasonal variability of Chl-a within the gyres is driven mostly by the warming/cooling of surface waters. Summer warming promotes shallower mixed layers and lower Chl-a due to a reduction of vertical mixing and consequently a decrease in nutrient supply. The opposite happens during the winter cooling period. Therefore, long-term trends in SST have the potential to cause an impact on the interannual variability of Chl-a. Our analyses show that, during the 13 whole years of SeaWiFS data record, the North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and North Atlantic gyres experienced a decrease in Chl-a of 9%, 12%, and 11%, respectively, with corresponding SST increases of 0.27 C, 0.42 C, and 0.32 C. The South Pacific and South Atlantic gyres also showed warming trends but with weak positive trends in Chl-a that are not statistically significant. We hypothesize that the warming of surface waters in these two gyres are counterbalanced by other interacting physical and biological driving mechanisms, as indicated in previous studies.

Ocean backscatter across the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nghiem, S.V.; Li, F.K.

1997-06-01

Ocean backscatter was measured by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the airborne NUSCAT K{sub u}-band scatterometer, across the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front during the Surface Wave Dynamics Experiment off the coast of Virginia and Maryland in the winter of 1991. Backscatter across the front between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration experimental coastal buoy A (44024) on the cold side and Discus C buoy (44023) on the warm side shows a difference of more than 5 dB for vertical polarization in many cases. This large frontal backscatter change is observed in all upwind, downwind, and crosswind directions. Themore » sea surface temperature difference measured by the buoys was about 9{degrees}C. The corresponding difference in wind speed cannot account for the large backscatter change in view of geophysical model functions depending only on neutral wind velocity such as SASS. The measured backscatter also has larger upwind-downwind and upwind-crosswind ratios compared to the model results. Furthermore, NUSCAT data reveal that upwind backscatter on the cold side was smaller than or close to crosswind backscatter on the warm side for incidence angles between 30{degrees} to 50{degrees}. This suggests that the temperature front can be detected by the scatterometer at these incidence angles for different wind directions in the cold and warm sides.« less

Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960-1999 and associated mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alory, Gaël; Wijffels, Susan; Meyers, Gary

2007-01-01

The linear trends in oceanic temperature from 1960 to 1999 are estimated using the new Indian Ocean Thermal Archive (IOTA), a compilation of historical temperature profiles. Widespread surface warming is found, as in other data sets, and reproduced in IPCC climate model simulations for the 20th century. This warming is particularly large in the subtropics, and extends down to 800 m around 40-50°S. Models suggest the deep-reaching subtropical warming is related to a 0.5° southward shift of the subtropical gyre driven by a strengthening of the westerly winds, and associated with an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode index. In the tropics, IOTA shows a subsurface cooling corresponding to a shoaling of the thermocline and increasing vertical stratification. Most models suggest this trend in the tropical Indian thermocline is likely associated with the observed weakening of the Pacific trade winds and transmitted to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian throughflow.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

High Lapse Rates in AIRS Retrieved Temperatures in Cold Air Outbreaks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fetzer, Eric J.; Kahn, Brian; Olsen, Edward T.; Fishbein, Evan

2004-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) experiment, on NASA's Aqua spacecraft, uses a combination of infrared and microwave observations to retrieve cloud and surface properties, plus temperature and water vapor profiles comparable to radiosondes throughout the troposphere, for cloud cover up to 70%. The high spectral resolution of AIRS provides sensitivity to important information about the near-surface atmosphere and underlying surface. A preliminary analysis of AIRS temperature retrievals taken during January 2003 reveals extensive areas of superadiabatic lapse rates in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere. These areas are found predominantly east of North America over the Gulf Stream, and, off East Asia over the Kuroshio Current. Accompanying the high lapse rates are low air temperatures, large sea-air temperature differences, and low relative humidities. Imagery from a Visible / Near Infrared instrument on the AIRS experiment shows accompanying clouds. These lines of evidence all point to shallow convection in the bottom layer of a cold air mass overlying warm water, with overturning driven by heat flow from ocean to atmosphere. An examination of operational radiosondes at six coastal stations in Japan shows AIRS to be oversensitive to lower tropospheric lapse rates due to systematically warm near-surface air temperatures. The bias in near-surface air temperature is seen to be independent of sea surface temperature, however. AIRS is therefore sensitive to air-sea temperature difference, but with a warm atmospheric bias. A regression fit to radiosondes is used to correct AIRS near-surface retrieved temperatures, and thereby obtain an estimate of the true atmosphere-ocean thermal contrast in five subtropical regions across the north Pacific. Moving eastward, we show a systematic shift in this air-sea temperature differences toward more isothermal conditions. These results, while preliminary, have implications for our understanding of heat flow from ocean to atmosphere. We anticipate future improvements in the AIRS retrieval algorithm will lead to improved understanding of the exchange of sensible and latent heat from ocean to atmosphere, and more realistic near-surface lapse rates.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

The Ocean Surface Topography Constellation: The Next 15 Years in Satellite Altimetry

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-22

global coverage in 2007 - to estimate changes in volume due to the warming of the oceans. 5.2 Ocean State Estimation Regarding ocean climate analyses...Ocean Observations and Information for Society" Conference (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison D.E. and Stammer , D., Eds...Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J„ Harrison D.E. and Stammer , D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306, 2010. 8. Balmaseda, M., Alves, O

Causes of strong ocean heating during glacial periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A.

2013-12-01

During the last deglaciation period, the strongest climate changes occurred across the North Atlantic regions. Analyses of borehole temperatures from the Greenland ice sheet have yielded air temperature change estimates of 25°C over the deglaciation period (Dahl-Jensen et al. 1998). Such huge temperature changes cannot currently be explained in the frames of modern knowledge about climate. We propose that glacial-interglacial cycles are connected with gradual warming of ocean interior waters over the course of glaciations and quick transport of accumulated heat from ocean to the atmosphere during the deglaciation periods. Modern day ocean circulation is dominated by thermal convection with cold waters subsiding in the Northern Atlantic and filling up the ocean interior with cold and heavy water. However during the glaciation thermal circulation stopped and ocean circulation was driven by 'haline pumps' -Red and Mediterranean seas connected with ocean with only narrow but deep straights acts as evaporative basins, separating ocean water into fresh water which returns to the ocean surface (precipitation) and warm but salty, and therefore heavy, water which flows down to the ocean floor. This haline pump is stratifying the ocean, allowing warmer water locate under the colder water and thus stopping thermal convection in the ocean. Additional ocean interior warming is driven by geothermal heat flux and decomposition of organic rain. To test the hypothesis we present simple ocean box model that describes thermohaline circulation in the World Ocean. The first box is the Red and Mediterranean sea, the second is united high-latitude seas, the third is the ocean surface, and the fourth the ocean interior. The volume of these water masses and straight cross-sections are taken to be close to real values. We have accepted that the exchange of water between boxes is proportional to the difference in water density in these boxes, Sun energy inputs to the ocean and sea surface are taken as constant. Energy income to the interior box from the geothermal heat flux is also taken as constant. Even though energy inputs are taken as constants, the model manages to recreate the glacial-interglacial cycles. In the glacial periods only haline circulation takes place, the ocean is strongly stratified, and the interior box accumulates heat, while high-latitudes accumulate ice. 112,000 years after glaciation starts, water density on the ocean bottom becomes equal to the density of water in high-latitude seas, strong thermal convection take place, and the ocean quickly (within 14,600 years) releases the heat. The magnitude and duration of such cycles correspond with magnitudes and durations reconstructed for actual glacial-interglacial cycles. From the proposed mechanism it follows that during the glaciations it is likely that the Arctic Ocean was a big reservoir of isotopically light fresh ice. If in a glacial period, the World Ocean were half filled with warm water from the Red Sea and bioproductivity of the ocean declined because of the slow circulation, then carbon storage within the ocean reservoir would decline by ~2000 Pg (10^15 g) of carbon.

Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

PubMed

Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

2012-02-10

Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

Regional Responses to Black Carbon Aerosols: The Importance of Air-Sea Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Scott, A. A.; Pradal, M.-A.; Seviour, W. J. M.; Waugh, D. W.

2017-12-01

The impact of modern black carbon aerosols on climate via their changes in radiative balance is studied using a coupled model where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are allowed to vary and an atmosphere-only version of the same model where SSTs are held fixed. Allowing the ocean to respond is shown to have a profound impact on the pattern of temperature change. Particularly, large impacts are found in the North Pacific (which cools by up to 1 K in the coupled model) and in north central Asia (which warms in the coupled simulation and cools in the fixed SST simulation). Neither set of experiments shows large changes in surface temperatures in the Southeast Asian region where the atmospheric burden of black carbon is highest. These results are related to the stabilization of the atmosphere and changes in oceanic heat transport. Over the North Pacific, atmospheric stabilization results in an increase in stratiform clouds. The resulting shading reduces evaporation, freshening the surface layer of the ocean and reducing the inflow of warm subtropical waters. Over the land, a delicate balance between greater atmospheric absorption, shading of the surface and changes in latent cooling of the surface helps to determine whether warming or cooling is seen. Our results emphasize the importance of coupling in determining the response of the climate system to black carbon and suggest that black carbon may play an important role in modulating climate change over the North Pacific.

A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, M.

2015-12-01

Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the CO2 forcing, and water vapor and atmospheric dynamics feedbacks add to the maximum polar warming in fall/winter.

Observed Changes at the Surface of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortmeyer, M.; Rigor, I.

2004-12-01

The Arctic has long been considered a harbinger of global climate change since simulations with global climate models predict that if the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles, the Arctic would warm by more than 5°C, compared to a warming of 2°C for subpolar regions (Manabe et al., 1991). And indeed, studies of the observational records show polar amplification of the warming trends (e.g. Serreze and Francis, 2004). These temperature trends are accompanied by myriad concurrent changes in Arctic climate. One of the first indicators of Arctic climate change was found by Walsh et al. (1996) using sea level pressure (SLP) data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP, http://iabp.apl.washington.edu). In this study, they showed that SLP over the Arctic Ocean decreased by over 4 hPa from 1979 - 1994. The decreases in SLP (winds) over the Arctic Ocean, forced changes in the circulation of sea ice and the surface ocean currents such that the Beaufort Gyre is reduced in size and speed (e.g. Rigor et al., 2002). Data from the IABP has also been assimilated into the global surface air temperature (SAT) climatologies (e.g. Jones et al. 1999), and the IABP SAT analysis shows that the temperature trends noted over land extend out over the Arctic Ocean. Specifically, Rigor et al. (2000) found warming trends in SAT over the Arctic Ocean during win¬ter and spring, with values as high as 2°C/decade in the eastern Arctic during spring. It should be noted that many of the changes in Arctic climate were first observed or explained using data from the IABP. The observations from IABP have been one of the cornerstones for environmental forecasting and studies of climate and climate change. These changes have a profound impact on wildlife and people. Many species and cultures depend on the sea ice for habitat and subsistence. Thus, monitoring the Arctic Ocean is crucial not only for our ability to detect climate change, but also to improve our understanding of the Arctic and global climate system, and for forecasting weather and sea ice conditions. The IABP provides the longest continuing record of observations for the Arctic Ocean.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

PubMed Central

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-01-01

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

PubMed

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-11-16

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

Effects of ocean acidification, warming and melting of sea ice on aragonite saturation of the Canada Basin surface water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto-Kawai, M.; McLaughlin, F. A.; Carmack, E. C.

2011-02-01

In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were found to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite. This is associated with recent extensive melting of sea ice in this region, as well as elevated sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We have estimated the relative contribution of each of these controlling factors to the calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω) from observations of dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity and oxygen isotope ratio. Results indicate that the increase in atmospheric CO2 has lowered surface Ω by ˜0.3 in the Canada Basin since the preindustrial period. Recent melting of sea ice has further lowered mean Ω by 0.4, and of this, half was due to dilution of surface water and half was due to the change in air-sea disequilibrium state. Surface water warming has generally counteracted the mean decrease in Ω by 0.1.

Air pollution, greenhouse gases and climate change: Global and regional perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.; Feng, Y.

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, among other factors. About 30 years ago, it was recognized that the increase in tropospheric ozone from air pollution (NO x, CO and others) is an important greenhouse forcing term. In addition, the recognition of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) on stratospheric ozone and its climate effects linked chemistry and climate strongly. What is less recognized, however, is a comparably major global problem dealing with air pollution. Until about ten years ago, air pollution was thought to be just an urban or a local problem. But new data have revealed that air pollution is transported across continents and ocean basins due to fast long-range transport, resulting in trans-oceanic and trans-continental plumes of atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs) containing sub micron size particles, i.e., aerosols. ABCs intercept sunlight by absorbing as well as reflecting it, both of which lead to a large surface dimming. The dimming effect is enhanced further because aerosols may nucleate more cloud droplets, which makes the clouds reflect more solar radiation. The dimming has a surface cooling effect and decreases evaporation of moisture from the surface, thus slows down the hydrological cycle. On the other hand, absorption of solar radiation by black carbon and some organics increase atmospheric heating and tend to amplify greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. ABCs are concentrated in regional and mega-city hot spots. Long-range transport from these hot spots causes widespread plumes over the adjacent oceans. Such a pattern of regionally concentrated surface dimming and atmospheric solar heating, accompanied by widespread dimming over the oceans, gives rise to large regional effects. Only during the last decade, we have begun to comprehend the surprisingly large regional impacts. In S. Asia and N. Africa, the large north-south gradient in the ABC dimming has altered both the north-south gradients in sea surface temperatures and land-ocean contrast in surface temperatures, which in turn slow down the monsoon circulation and decrease rainfall over the continents. On the other hand, heating by black carbon warms the atmosphere at elevated levels from 2 to 6 km, where most tropical glaciers are located, thus strengthening the effect of GHGs on retreat of snow packs and glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan glaciers. Globally, the surface cooling effect of ABCs may have masked as much 47% of the global warming by greenhouse gases, with an uncertainty range of 20-80%. This presents a dilemma since efforts to curb air pollution may unmask the ABC cooling effect and enhance the surface warming. Thus efforts to reduce GHGs and air pollution should be done under one common framework. The uncertainties in our understanding of the ABC effects are large, but we are discovering new ways in which human activities are changing the climate and the environment.

Bimodality and regime behavior in atmosphere-ocean interactions during the recent climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah, Bijan; Sodoudi, Sahar

2015-06-01

Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) and isometric feature mapping (Isomap) are applied to investigate the spatio-temporal atmosphere-ocean interactions otherwise hidden in observational data for the period of 1979-2010. Despite an established long-term surface warming trend for the whole northern hemisphere, sea surface temperatures (SST) in the East Pacific have remained relatively constant for the period of 2001-2010. Our analysis reveals that SST anomaly probability density function of the leading two Isomap components is bimodal. We conclude that Isomap shows the existence of two distinct regimes in surface ocean temperature, resembling the break and active phases of rainfall over equatorial land areas. These regimes occurred within two separated time windows during the past three decades. Strengthening of trade winds over Pacific was coincident with the cold phase of east equatorial Pacific. This pattern was reversed during the warm phase of east equatorial Pacific. The El Niño event of 1997/1998 happened within the transition mode between these two regimes and may be a trigger for the SST changes in the Pacific. Furthermore, we suggest that Isomap, compared with MCA, provides more information about the behavior and predictability of the inter-seasonal atmosphere-ocean interactions.

Possible role of oceanic heat transport in early Eocene climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sloan, L. C.; Walker, J. C.; Moore, T. C. Jr

1995-01-01

Increased oceanic heat transport has often been cited as a means of maintaining warm high-latitude surface temperatures in many intervals of the geologic past, including the early Eocene. Although the excess amount of oceanic heat transport required by warm high latitude sea surface temperatures can be calculated empirically, determining how additional oceanic heat transport would take place has yet to be accomplished. That the mechanisms of enhanced poleward oceanic heat transport remain undefined in paleoclimate reconstructions is an important point that is often overlooked. Using early Eocene climate as an example, we consider various ways to produce enhanced poleward heat transport and latitudinal energy redistribution of the sign and magnitude required by interpreted early Eocene conditions. Our interpolation of early Eocene paleotemperature data indicate that an approximately 30% increase in poleward heat transport would be required to maintain Eocene high-latitude temperatures. This increased heat transport appears difficult to accomplish by any means of ocean circulation if we use present ocean circulation characteristics to evaluate early Eocene rates. Either oceanic processes were very different from those of the present to produce the early Eocene climate conditions or oceanic heat transport was not the primary cause of that climate. We believe that atmospheric processes, with contributions from other factors, such as clouds, were the most likely primary cause of early Eocene climate.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss. Less robust is the part of the response that scales with low-latitude warming, which, depending on the model, can reinforce or cancel the response to sea-ice loss. The extent to which a "tug of war" exists between tropical and high-latitude influences on the general circulation might thus be model dependent.

Deep ocean communities impacted by changing climate over 24 y in the abyssal northeast Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Smith, Kenneth L; Ruhl, Henry A; Kahru, Mati; Huffard, Christine L; Sherman, Alana D

2013-12-03

The deep ocean, covering a vast expanse of the globe, relies almost exclusively on a food supply originating from primary production in surface waters. With well-documented warming of oceanic surface waters and conflicting reports of increasing and decreasing primary production trends, questions persist about how such changes impact deep ocean communities. A 24-y time-series study of sinking particulate organic carbon (food) supply and its utilization by the benthic community was conducted in the abyssal northeast Pacific (~4,000-m depth). Here we show that previous findings of food deficits are now punctuated by large episodic surpluses of particulate organic carbon reaching the sea floor, which meet utilization. Changing surface ocean conditions are translated to the deep ocean, where decadal peaks in supply, remineralization, and sequestration of organic carbon have broad implications for global carbon budget projections.

Deep ocean communities impacted by changing climate over 24 y in the abyssal northeast Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Smith, Kenneth L.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Kahru, Mati; Huffard, Christine L.; Sherman, Alana D.

2013-01-01

The deep ocean, covering a vast expanse of the globe, relies almost exclusively on a food supply originating from primary production in surface waters. With well-documented warming of oceanic surface waters and conflicting reports of increasing and decreasing primary production trends, questions persist about how such changes impact deep ocean communities. A 24-y time-series study of sinking particulate organic carbon (food) supply and its utilization by the benthic community was conducted in the abyssal northeast Pacific (∼4,000-m depth). Here we show that previous findings of food deficits are now punctuated by large episodic surpluses of particulate organic carbon reaching the sea floor, which meet utilization. Changing surface ocean conditions are translated to the deep ocean, where decadal peaks in supply, remineralization, and sequestration of organic carbon have broad implications for global carbon budget projections. PMID:24218565

Warming Ocean Conditions Relate to Increased Trophic Requirements of Threatened and Endangered Salmon

PubMed Central

Daly, Elizabeth A.; Brodeur, Richard D.

2015-01-01

The trophic habits, size and condition of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) caught early in their marine residence were examined during 19 survey years (1981–1985; 1998–2011). Juvenile salmon consumed distinct highly piscivorous diets in cold and warm ocean regimes with major differences between ocean regimes driven by changes in consumption of juvenile rockfishes, followed by several other fish prey, adult euphausiids and decapod larvae. Notable, Chinook salmon consumed 30% more food in the warm versus cold ocean regime in both May and June. Additionally, there were about 30% fewer empty stomachs in the warm ocean regime in May, and 10% fewer in warm June periods. The total prey energy density consumed during the warmer ocean regime was also significantly higher than in cold. Chinook salmon had lower condition factor and were smaller in fork length during the warm ocean regime, and were longer and heavier for their size during the cold ocean regime. The significant increase in foraging during the warm ocean regime occurred concurrently with lower available prey biomass. Adult return rates of juvenile Chinook salmon that entered the ocean during a warm ocean regime were lower. Notably, our long term data set contradicts the long held assertion that juvenile salmon eat less in a warm ocean regime when low growth and survival is observed, and when available prey are reduced. Comparing diet changes between decades under variable ocean conditions may assist us in understanding the effects of projected warming ocean regimes on juvenile Chinook salmon and their survival in the ocean environment. Bioenergetically, the salmon appear to require more food resources during warm ocean regimes. PMID:26675673

Warming Ocean Conditions Relate to Increased Trophic Requirements of Threatened and Endangered Salmon.

PubMed

Daly, Elizabeth A; Brodeur, Richard D

2015-01-01

The trophic habits, size and condition of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) caught early in their marine residence were examined during 19 survey years (1981-1985; 1998-2011). Juvenile salmon consumed distinct highly piscivorous diets in cold and warm ocean regimes with major differences between ocean regimes driven by changes in consumption of juvenile rockfishes, followed by several other fish prey, adult euphausiids and decapod larvae. Notable, Chinook salmon consumed 30% more food in the warm versus cold ocean regime in both May and June. Additionally, there were about 30% fewer empty stomachs in the warm ocean regime in May, and 10% fewer in warm June periods. The total prey energy density consumed during the warmer ocean regime was also significantly higher than in cold. Chinook salmon had lower condition factor and were smaller in fork length during the warm ocean regime, and were longer and heavier for their size during the cold ocean regime. The significant increase in foraging during the warm ocean regime occurred concurrently with lower available prey biomass. Adult return rates of juvenile Chinook salmon that entered the ocean during a warm ocean regime were lower. Notably, our long term data set contradicts the long held assertion that juvenile salmon eat less in a warm ocean regime when low growth and survival is observed, and when available prey are reduced. Comparing diet changes between decades under variable ocean conditions may assist us in understanding the effects of projected warming ocean regimes on juvenile Chinook salmon and their survival in the ocean environment. Bioenergetically, the salmon appear to require more food resources during warm ocean regimes.

Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

Early 20th Century Arctic Warming Intensified by Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, H.; Xie, S. P.; Mukougawa, H.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability on the Arctic temperature, with a particular focus on the early 20th century Arctic warming. Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing than at present. We find that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability is the major driver for the early 20th century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early Arctic warming is associated with the cold-to-warm phase shifts of Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability modes, a SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air to the North American Arctic. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, cold-to-warm phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Leovy, Conway B.

1994-01-01

Marine stratiform cloudiness (MSC)(stratus, stratocumulus, and fog) is widespread over subtropical oceans west of the continents and over midlatitude oceans during summer, the season when MSC has maximum influence on surface downward radiation and is most influenced by boundary-layer processes. Long-term datasets of cloudiness and sea surface teperature (SST) from surface observations from 1952 to 1981 are used to examine interannual variations in MSC and SST. Linear correlations of anomalies in seasonal MSC amount with seasonal SST anomalies are negative and significant in midlatitude and eastern subtropical oceans, especially during summer. Significant negative correlations between SST and nimbostratus and nonprecipitating midlevel cloudiness are also observed at midlatitudes during summer, suggesting that summer storm tracks shift from year to year following year-to-year meridional shifts in the SST gradient. Over the 30-yr period, there are significant upward trends in MSC amount over the northern midlatitude oceans and a significant downward trend off the coast of California. The highest correlations and trends occur where gradients in MSC and SST are strongest. During summer, correlations between SST and MSC anomalies peak at zero lag in midlatitudes where warm advection prevails, but SST lags MSC in subtropical regions where cold advection predominates. This difference is attributed to a tendency for anomalies in latent heat flux to compensate anomalies in surface downward radiation in warm advection regions but not in cold advection regions.

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Gille, Sarah T.; Yoo, Changhyun

2016-03-01

During the past three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has shown dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-western Pacific but cooling over the eastern Pacific. Competing hypotheses relate this cooling, identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus, to the warming trends in either the Atlantic or Indian Ocean. However, the mechanisms, the relative importance and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnection, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute ~55-75% of the tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. The Atlantic warming drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific as Kelvin waves and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves. The wind changes induce an Indo-western Pacific warming through the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the tropical Pacific by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean dynamical processes. The teleconnection develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern. This mechanism, supported by observations and a hierarchy of climate models, reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought.

Vertical Distribution of Temperature in Transitional Season II and West Monsoon in Western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pranoto, Hikari A. H.; Kunarso; Soeyanto, Endro

2018-02-01

Western Pacific is the water mass intersection from both the Northern Pacific and Southern Pacific ocean. The Western Pacific ocean is warm pool area which formed by several warm surface currents. As a warm pool area and also the water mass intersection, western Pacific ocean becomes an interesting study area. The object of this study is to describe the temperature vertical distribution by mooring buoy and temporally in transitional season II (September - November 2014) and west monsoon (December 2014 - February 2015) in Western Pacific. Vertical temperature and wind speed data that was used in this study was recorded by INA-TRITON mooring instrument and obtained from Laboratory of Marine Survey, BPPT. Supporting data of this study was wind vector data from ECMWF to observe the relation between temperature distribution and monsoon. The quantitative approach was used in this study by processing temperature and wind data from INA-TRITON and interpreted graphically. In the area of study, it was found that in transitional season II the range of sea surface temperature to 500-meter depth was about 8.29 - 29.90 °C while in west monsoon was 8.12 - 29.45 °C. According to the research result, the sea SST of western Pacific ocean was related to monsoonal change with SST and wind speed correlation coefficient was 0.78. While the deep layer temperature was affected by water mass flow which passes through the western Pacific Ocean.

Project CLIMPEAT - Influence of global warming and drought on the carbon sequestration and biodiversity of Sphagnum peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamentowicz, M.; Buttler, A.; Mitchell, E. A. D.; Chojnicki, B.; Słowińska, S.; Słowiński, M.

2012-04-01

Northern peatlands represent a globally significant pool of carbon and are subject to the highest rates of climate warming, and most of these peatlands are in continental settings. However, it is unclear if how fast peatlands respond to past and present changes in temperature and surface moisture in continental vs. oceanic climate settings. The CLIMPEAT project brings together scientists from Poland and Switzerland. Our goal is to assess the past and present vulnerability to climate change of Sphagnum peatland plant and microbial communities, peat organic matter transformations and carbon sequestration using a combination of field and mesocosm experiments simulating warming and water table changes and palaeoecological studies. Warming will be achieved using ITEX-type "Open-Top Chambers". The field studies are conducted in Poland, at the limit between oceanic and continental climates, and are part of a network of projects also including field experiments in the French Jura (sub-oceanic) and in Siberia (continental). We will calibrate the response of key biological (plants, testate amoebae) and geochemical (isotopic composition of organic compounds, organic matter changes) proxies to warming and water table changes and use these proxies to reconstruct climate changes during the last 1000 years.

Asymmetric Response of the Equatorial Pacific SST to Climate Warming and Cooling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing; while in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that themore » SST asymmetry is mainly resulted from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments.« less

Asymmetric response of the equatorial Pacific SST to climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Liu, F.; Lu, J.

2017-12-01

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing; while in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that the SST asymmetry is mainly resulted from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments.

Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

PubMed Central

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

2016-01-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth’s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world’s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences. PMID:27419228

Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion.

PubMed

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

2016-07-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.

Atlantic Induced Pan-tropical Climate Variability in the Upper-ocean and Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2016-02-01

During the last three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Western Pacific but cooling over the Eastern Pacific. The Eastern Pacific cooling has recently been identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus. Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, which could potentially contribute to this zonally asymmetric SST pattern. However, the mechanisms and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. To investigate these questions, we performed a `pacemaker' simulation by restoring the tropical Atlantic SST changes in a state-of-the-art climate model - the CESM1. Results show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnections, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute 55%-75% of the total tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. A hierarchy of oceanic and atmospheric models are then used to investigate the physical mechanisms of these teleconnections: the Atlantic warming enhances atmospheric deep convection, drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific through the Kelvin wave, and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution (Fig1a). These wind changes induce an Indo-Western Pacific warming via the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the upper Pacific Ocean by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean-dynamical processes (Fig1b). The teleconnection finally develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern with an enhanced trade wind and Walker circulation, similar as the observed changes during the satellite era. This mechanism reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought, and the Atlantic plays a key role in the tropical climate pattern formation and further the global warming hiatus. The tropical Atlantic warming is likely due to radiative forcing and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Our study suggests that the AMOC may force the decadal variability of the tropical ocean and atmosphere, and thus contributes to the decadal predictability of the global climate.

Surface Energies and Chemical Analysis of the Initial Stages of Marine Microbiological Fouling.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-20

Surfaces in Model Heat Exchange Cells. pp. 67-87. In: Determination of Microfouling Indicies From Materials Exposed to Sub-Tropical Warm Ocean Water...The Nature of Primary Organic Films in the Marine Environment and Their Significance for Ocean Thermal nery Conservation ( OTEC ) Heat Exchanger ...areas were individually performed during a nine month period between August, 1982 and April, 1983. All tests were done with equipment and materials of

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

PubMed

Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

2014-01-23

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

Changing surface water conditions for the last 500 ka in the Southeast Atlantic:Tracking Agulhas leakage using UK37' and δD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin; van der Meer, Marcel; Marret, Fabienne

2015-04-01

The Southeast Atlantic Ocean is an important component of global ocean circulation, as it includes heat and salt transfer into the Atlantic through Agulhas Leakage. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea surface salinity from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1087 in the Southeast Atlantic to investigate surface ocean circulation patterns during the late Pleistocene (0-500 ka). The alkenone-derived U37K'index and assemblages of dinoflagellate cysts are used to reconstruct SSTs. The hydrogen isotope composition of the alkenones (δDalkenone) is used to reconstruct changes in sea-surface salinity. The greatest amplitude of SST warming precedes decreases in benthic δ18O and therefore occurs early in the transition from glacials to interglacials. The timing of the early warming is consistent with previously published foraminifera reconstructions from the same site (Caley et al., 2012). However, δDalkenone decreases at the start of interglacials, suggesting that sea surface salinity increased earlier than the deglacial warmings, and indicating that the pattern of Agulhas leakage is more complex than suggested by SST proxies alone. Furthermore, the δDalkenonevalues indicate a strong salinity increases occurred before both MIS 11 and MIS 1, which are both periods where there is evidence of connection between increased Agulhas Leakage and a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Finally, the ODP site 1087 record shows an overall trend of increasing SSTs and δDalkenone towards the present day, suggesting that Agulhas leakage has strengthened since 500 ka, which may have impacted the intensity of the AMOC. Caley, T., Giraudeau, J., Malaize, B., Rossignol, L., Pierre, C., 2012. Agulhas leakage as a key process in the modes of Quaternary climate changes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 6835-6839. doi:10.1073/pnas.1115545109

Small change, big difference: Sea surface temperature distributions for tropical coral reef ecosystems, 1950-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lough, J. M.

2012-09-01

Changes in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) are examined over the period 1950-2011 during which global average temperature warmed by 0.4°C. Average tropical SST is warming about 70% of the global average rate. Spatially, significant warming between the two time periods, 1950-1980 and 1981-2011, has occurred across 65% of the tropical oceans. Coral reef ecosystems occupy 10% of the tropical oceans, typically in regions of warmer (+1.8°C) and less variable SST (80% of months within 3.3°C range) compared to non-reef areas (80% of months within 7.0°C range). SST is a primary controlling factor of coral reef distribution and coral reef organisms have already shown their sensitivity to the relatively small amount of warming observed so far through, for example, more frequent coral bleaching events and outbreaks of coral disease. Experimental evidence is also emerging of possible thermal thresholds in the range 30°C-32°C for some physiological processes of coral reef organisms. Relatively small changes in SST have already resulted in quite large differences in SST distribution with a maximum ‘hot spot’ of change in the near-equatorial Indo-Pacific which encompasses both the Indo-Pacific warm pools and the center of coral reef biodiversity. Identification of this hot spot of SST change is not new but this study highlights its significance with respect to tropical coral reef ecosystems. Given the modest amount of warming to date, changes in SST distribution are of particular concern for coral reefs given additional local anthropogenic stresses on many reefs and ongoing ocean acidification likely to increasingly compromise coral reef processes.

Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

2001-01-01

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m−2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m−2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m−2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

Salinity bias on the foraminifera Mg/Ca thermometry: Correction procedure and implications for past ocean hydrographic reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathien-Blard, Elise; Bassinot, Franck

2009-12-01

Mg/Ca in foraminiferal calcite has recently been extensively used to estimate past oceanic temperatures. Here we show, however, that the Mg/Ca temperature relationship of the planktonic species Globigerinoides ruber is significantly affected by seawater salinity, with a +1 psu change in salinity resulting in a +1.6°C bias in Mg/Ca temperature calculations. If not accounted for, such a bias could lead, for instance, to systematic overestimations of Mg/Ca temperatures during glacial periods, when global ocean salinity had significantly increased compared to today. We present here a correction procedure to derive unbiased sea surface temperatures (SST) and δ18Osw from G. ruber TMg/Ca and δ18Of measurements. This correction procedure was applied to a sedimentary record to reconstruct hydrographic changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. While uncorrected TMg/Ca data indicate a 3°C warming of the Western Pacific Warm Pool since the LGM, the salinity-corrected SST result in a stronger warming of 4°C.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme hot summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

Kinetic bottlenecks to chemical exchange rates for deep-sea animals - Part 1: Oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, A. F.; Peltzer, E. T.; Brewer, P. G.

2012-10-01

Ocean warming will reduce dissolved oxygen concentrations which can pose challenges to marine life. Oxygen limits are traditionally reported simply as a static concentration thresholds with no temperature, pressure or flow rate dependency. Here we treat the oceanic oxygen supply potential for heterotrophic consumption as a dynamic molecular exchange problem analogous to familiar gas exchange processes at the sea surface. A combination of the purely physico-chemical oceanic properties temperature, hydrostatic pressure, and oxygen concentration defines the ability of the ocean to supply oxygen to any given animal. This general oceanic oxygen supply potential is modulated by animal specific properties such as the diffusive boundary layer thickness to define and limit maximal oxygen supply rates. Here we combine all these properties into formal, mechanistic equations defining novel oceanic properties that subsume various relevant classical oceanographic parameters to better visualize, map, comprehend, and predict the impact of ocean deoxygenation on aerobic life. By explicitly including temperature and hydrostatic pressure into our quantities, various ocean regions ranging from the cold deep-sea to warm, coastal seas can be compared. We define purely physico-chemical quantities to describe the oceanic oxygen supply potential, but also quantities that contain organism-specific properties which in a most generalized way describe general concepts and dependencies. We apply these novel quantities to example oceanic profiles around the world and find that temperature and pressure dependencies of diffusion and partial pressure create zones of greatest physical constriction on oxygen supply typically at around 1000 m depth, which coincides with oxygen concentration minimum zones. In these zones, which comprise the bulk of the world ocean, ocean warming and deoxygenation have a clear negative effect for aerobic life. In some shallow and warm waters the enhanced diffusion and higher partial pressure due to higher temperatures might slightly overcompensate for oxygen concentration decreases due to decreases in solubility.

The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E.

2018-04-01

Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes.

Unprecedented 2015/2016 Indo-Pacific Heat Transfer Speeds Up Tropical Pacific Heat Recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Michael; Alonso Balmaseda, Magdalena; Haimberger, Leopold

2018-04-01

El Niño events are characterized by anomalously warm tropical Pacific surface waters and concurrent ocean heat discharge, a precursor of subsequent cold La Niña conditions. Here we show that El Niño 2015/2016 departed from this norm: despite extreme peak surface temperatures, tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S) upper ocean heat content increased by 9.6 ± 1.7 ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 J), in stark contrast to the previous strong El Niño in 1997/1998 (-11.5 ± 2.9 ZJ). Unprecedented reduction of Indonesian Throughflow volume and heat transport played a key role in the anomalous 2015/2016 event. We argue that this anomaly is linked with the previously documented intensified warming and associated rising sea levels in the Indian Ocean during the last decade. Additionally, increased absorption of solar radiation acted to dampen Pacific ocean heat content discharge. These results explain the weak and short-lived La Niña conditions in 2016/2017 and indicate the need for realistic representation of Indo-Pacific energy transfers for skillful seasonal-to-decadal predictions.

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Williams, A. Park

2011-01-01

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, A. Park; Funk, Christopher C.

2011-01-01

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, W.; Tuleya, R.E.; Ginis, I.

In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to {+-}4 C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 26 to 31 C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic inmore » the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO{sub 2} is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity if highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane-ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO{sub 2}.« less

Tropical warm pool rainfall variability and impact on upper ocean variability throughout the Madden-Julian oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Elizabeth J.

Heating and rain freshening often stabilize the upper tropical ocean, bringing the ocean mixed layer depth to the sea surface. Thin mixed layer depths concentrate subsequent fluxes of heat, momentum, and freshwater in a thin layer. Rapid heating and cooling of the tropical sea surface is important for controlling or triggering atmospheric convection. Ocean mixed layer depth and SST variability due to rainfall events have not been as comprehensively explored as the ocean's response to heating or momentum fluxes, but are very important to understand in the tropical warm pool where precipitation exceeds evaporation and many climate phenomena such as ENSO and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) originate. The first part of the dissertation investigates tropical, oceanic convective and stratiform rainfall variability and determines how to most accurately estimate rainfall accumulation with radar from each rain type. The second, main part of the dissertation uses central Indian Ocean salinity and temperature microstructure measurements and surrounding radar-derived rainfall maps throughout two DYNAMO MJO events to determine the impact of precipitating systems on upper-ocean mixed layer depth and resulting SST variability. The ocean mixed layer was as shallow as 0-5 m during 528/1071 observation hours throughout 2 MJOs (54% of the data record). Out of 43 observation days, thirty-eight near-surface mixed layer depth events were attributed to freshwater stabilization, called rain-formed mixed layers (RFLs). Thirty other mixed layer stratification events were classified as diurnal warm layers (DWLs) due to stable temperature stratification by daytime heating. RFLs and DWLs were observed to interact in two ways: 1) RFLs fill preexisting DWLs and add to total near-surface mixed layer stratification, which occurred ten times; 2) RFLs last long enough to heat, creating a new DWL on top of the RFL, which happened nine times. These combination stratification events were responsible for the highest SST warming rates and some of the highest SSTs leading up to the most active precipitation and wind stage of the each MJO. DWLs without RFL interaction helped produce the highest SSTs in suppressed MJO conditions. As storm intensity, frequency, duration, and the ability of storms to maintain stratiform rain areas increased, RFLS became more common in the disturbed and active MJO phases. Along with the barrier layer, DWL and RFL stratification events helped suppress wind-mixing, cooling, and mixed layer deepening throughout the MJO. We hypothesize that both salinity and temperature stratification events, and their interactions, are important for controlling SST variability and therefore MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean. Most RFLs were caused by submesoscale and mesoscale convective systems with stratiform rain components and local rain accumulations above 10 mm but with winds mostly below 8 m s-1. We hypothesize that the stratiform rain components of storms helped stratify the ocean by providing weak but widespread, steady, long-lived freshwater fluxes. Although generally limited to rain rates ≤ 10 mm hr-1, it is demonstrated that stratiform rain can exert a strong buoyancy flux into the ocean, i.e. as high as maximum daytime solar heating. Storm morphology and the preexisting vertical structure of ocean stability were critical in determining ocean mixed layer depth variability in the presence of rain. Therefore, we suggest that high spatial and temporal resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models that can parameterize or resolve storm morphology as well as ocean mixed layer and barrier layer evolution are needed to reproduce the diurnal and intraseasonal SST variability documented throughout the MJO.

The Earth System's Missing Energy and Land Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S.; Wang, H.; Duan, W.

2013-05-01

The energy content of the Earth system is determined by the balance or imbalance between the incoming energy from solar radiation and the outgoing energy of terrestrial long wavelength radiation. Change in the Earth system energy budget is the ultimate cause of global climate change. Satellite data show that there is a small yet persistent radiation imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere such that Earth has been steadily accumulating energy, consistent with the theory of greenhouse effect. It is commonly believed [IPCC, 2001; 2007] that up to 94% of the energy trapped by anthropogenic greenhouse gases is absorbed by the upper several hundred meter thick layer of global oceans, with the remaining to accomplish ice melting, atmosphere heating, and land warming, etc. However, the recent measurements from ocean monitoring system indicated that the rate of oceanic heat uptake has not kept pace with the greenhouse heat trapping rate over the past years [Trenberth and Fasullo, Science, 328: 316-317, 2010]. An increasing amount of energy added to the earth system has become unaccounted for, or is missing. A recent study [Loeb et al., Nature Geoscience, 5:110-113, 2012] suggests that the missing energy may be located in the deep ocean down to 1,800 m. Here we show that at least part of the missing energy can be alternatively explained by the land mass warming. We argue that the global continents alone should have a share greater than 10% of the global warming energy. Although the global lands reflect solar energy at a higher rate, they use less energy for evaporation than do the oceans. Taken into accounts the terrestrial/oceanic differences in albedo (34% vs. 28%) and latent heat (27% vs. 58% of net solar radiation at the surface), the radiative energy available per unit surface area for storage or other internal processes is more abundant on land than on ocean. Despite that the lands cover only about 29% of the globe, the portion of global warming energy stored in the lands is much greater than previously thought. The earth system is consisted of well-connected and interdependent atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. The lack of knowledge about or misrepresentation of the role of the heat capacity of the continental land masses will inevitably affect our ability to understand Earth's climate response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Spatio-temporal variability in the freshwater input to the surface water of Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidu, P. K.; Ghosh, P.; N, A.

2015-12-01

Ocean heat content is rising rapidly in high-latitude regions of both hemispheres as a consequence of global warming (e.g., Gille 2002; Karcher et al. 2003; Bindoff et al. 2007; Purkey and Johnson 2010). Recent warming and freshening of Southern Ocean has affected hydrological cycle in terms of increasing tendency of precipitation as liquid water instead of snow. Limited data is available on the extent of fresh water flux by precipitation and sea ice melting to the surface ocean. The spatial extent of sea ice formation is documented based on remote sensing observation. We investigate here spatial variability in freshwater inputs to the Indian sector of Southern Ocean region using combined observation of oxygen isotopes ratios and salinity of surface water during the summer of 2011, 2012 and 2013. Together with this, the measured isotopic ratios of meteoric water and sea ice melt were used in the mass balance equation for deriving the contribution of both of these components in the surface water of southern ocean. The three component mixing equations (Meredith et al., 2013) allowed estimation of fractional contribution of rain over the years. The δ18O of meteoric water followed the pattern nearly similar to the observation documented in the continental stations (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation, GNIP) located in the southern hemisphere. However, a slight but consistent heavier composition was documented in rainwater as compared to the GNIP stations. Our observation suggests that the meteoric water is the dominant freshwater source over the ocean, accounting for up to 10-15% of the water present in the surface ocean during the austral summer whereas Sea-ice melt accounts for a much smaller percentage (maximum around 1%). Our observation is consistent with previous studies where similar magnitude of fresh water input was proposed based on observation from coastal region (Meredith et al., 2013).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Jahn, Alexandra; Feng, Ran

Under previous reconstructions of late Pliocene boundary conditions, climate models have failed to reproduce the warm sea surface temperatures reconstructed in the North Atlantic. Using a reconstruction of mid-Piacenzian paleogeography that has the Bering Strait and Canadian Arctic Archipelago Straits closed, however, improves the simulation of the proxy-indicated warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in the Community Climate System Model. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, by inhibiting freshwater transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading tomore » warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In conclusion, this indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the state of these Arctic gateways for past time periods is needed.« less

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2011-01-01

Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

Marine species distribution shifts on the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleisner, Kristin M.; Fogarty, Michael J.; McGee, Sally; Hare, Jonathan A.; Moret, Skye; Perretti, Charles T.; Saba, Vincent S.

2017-04-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports along the U.S. Northeast Shelf. Given the complications of multiple drivers including species interactions and fishing pressure, it is difficult to predict exactly how species will shift. However, observations of species distribution shifts in the historical record under ocean warming suggest that temperature will play a primary role in influencing how species fare. Our results provide critical information on the potential for suitable thermal habitat on the U.S. Northeast Shelf for demersal species in the region, and may contribute to the development of ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies in response to climate change.

Microwave Limb Sounder/El Nino Watch - Water Vapor Measurement, October, 1997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This image shows atmospheric water vapor in Earth's upper troposphere, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) above the surface, as measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument flying aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. These data collected in early October 1997 indicate the presence of El Nino by showing a shift of humidity from west to east (blue and red areas) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the term used when the warmest equatorial Pacific Ocean water is displaced toward the east. The areas of high atmospheric moisture correspond to areas of very warm ocean water. Warmer water evaporates at a higher rate and the resulting warm moist air then rises, forming tall cloud towers. In the tropics, the warm water and the resulting tall cloud towers typically produce large amounts of rain. The MLS instrument, developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, measures humidity at the top of these clouds, which are very moist. This rain is now occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean and has left Indonesia (deep blue region) unusually dry, resulting in the current drought in that region. This image also shows moisture moving north into Mexico, an effect of several hurricanes spawned by the warm waters of El Nino.

Long-term effects of warming and ocean acidification are modified by seasonal variation in species responses and environmental conditions

PubMed Central

Godbold, Jasmin A.; Solan, Martin

2013-01-01

Warming of sea surface temperatures and alteration of ocean chemistry associated with anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will have profound consequences for a broad range of species, but the potential for seasonal variation to modify species and ecosystem responses to these stressors has received little attention. Here, using the longest experiment to date (542 days), we investigate how the interactive effects of warming and ocean acidification affect the growth, behaviour and associated levels of ecosystem functioning (nutrient release) for a functionally important non-calcifying intertidal polychaete (Alitta virens) under seasonally changing conditions. We find that the effects of warming, ocean acidification and their interactions are not detectable in the short term, but manifest over time through changes in growth, bioturbation and bioirrigation behaviour that, in turn, affect nutrient generation. These changes are intimately linked to species responses to seasonal variations in environmental conditions (temperature and photoperiod) that, depending upon timing, can either exacerbate or buffer the long-term directional effects of climatic forcing. Taken together, our observations caution against over emphasizing the conclusions from short-term experiments and highlight the necessity to consider the temporal expression of complex system dynamics established over appropriate timescales when forecasting the likely ecological consequences of climatic forcing. PMID:23980249

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Sea urchin development in a global change hotspot, potential for southerly migration of thermotolerant propagules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, M.; Selvakumaraswamy, P.; Ho, M. A.; Woolsey, E.; Nguyen, H. D.

2011-03-01

The distribution of the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the southeast Australia global change hot spot where marine ecosystems are warming significantly due to changes in ocean circulation. To address questions on future vulnerabilities, the thermotolerance of the planktonic life phase of H. erythrogramma was investigated in the climate and regionally relevant setting of projected near-future (2100) ocean warming. Experimental treatments ranged from 18 to 26 °C, with 26 °C representing +3-4 °C above recent ambient sea-surface temperatures. Developmental success across all stages (gastrula, 24 h; larva, 72 h; juvenile, 120 h) decreased with increasing temperature. Development was tolerant to a +1-2 °C increase above ambient, but significant deleterious effects were evident at +3-4 °C. However, larvae that developed through the early bottleneck of normal development at 26 °C metamorphosed successfully. The inverse relationship between temperature and planktonic larval duration (PLD) was seen in a 25% decrease in the PLD of H. erythrogramma at 24 and 26 oC. Ocean warming may be advantageous to a subset of larvae through early settlement and reduction of the vulnerable planktonic period. This positive effect of temperature may help buffer the negative effects of ocean warming. In parallel studies with progeny derived from northern (Coffs Harbour) and southern (Sydney) H. erythrogramma, northern embryos had significantly higher thermotolerance. This provides the possibility that H. erythrogramma populations might keep up with a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current. It is uncertain whether H. erythrogramma populations at the northern range of this species, with no source of immigrants, will have the capacity to persist in a warm ocean. Due to its extensive latitudinal distribution, its potential developmental thermotolerance and independence of its lecithotrophic larvae from exogenous food and the need to make a functional skeleton, H. erythrogramma may be particularly robust to ocean change.

Atlantic water heat transfer through the Arctic Gateway (Fram Strait) during the Last Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuravleva, Anastasia; Bauch, Henning A.; Spielhagen, Robert F.

2017-10-01

The Last Interglacial in the Arctic region is often described as a time with warmer conditions and significantly less summer sea ice than today. The role of Atlantic water (AW) as the main oceanic heat flux agent into the Arctic Ocean remains, however, unclear. Using high-resolution stable isotope and faunal records from the only deep Arctic Gateway, the Fram Strait, we note for the upper water column a diminished influence of AW and generally colder-than-Holocene surface ocean conditions. After the main Saalian deglaciation had terminated, a first intensification of northward-advected AW happened ( 124 ka). However, an intermittent sea surface cooling, triggered by meltwater release at 122 ka, caused a regional delay in the further development towards peak interglacial conditions. Maximum AW heat advection occurred during late MIS 5e (118.5-116 ka) and interrupted a longer-term cooling trend at the sea surface that started from about 120 ka on. Such a late occurrence of the major AW-derived near-surface warming in the Fram Strait - this is in stark contrast to an early warm peak in the Holocene - compares well in time with upstream records from the Norwegian Sea, altogether implying a coherent development of south-to-north ocean heat transfer through the eastern Nordic Seas and into the high Arctic during the Last Interglacial.

Calcification persists with CO2-induced ocean acidification but decreases with warming for the Caribbean coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, K. D.; Ries, J. B.; Westfield, I. T.; Weiss, J. M.; Bruno, J. F.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) induced ocean acidification and rising seawater temperatures are identified as two of the greatest threats to modern coral reefs. Within this century, surface seawater pH is expected to decrease by at least 0.3 units, and sea surface temperature is predicted to rise by 1 to 3 °C. However, uncertainty remains as to whether ocean acidification or ocean warming will have a more deleterious impact on coral reefs by the end of the century. Here, we present results of 95-day laboratory experiments in which we investigated the impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification and temperature on the calcification rate of the tropical reef-building zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. We found that calcification rates for S. siderea, estimated from buoyant weighing, increased as pCO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of 324 ppm to a near-present-day value of 477 ppm, remained unchanged as pCO2 increased from 477 ppm to the predicted end-of-century value of 604 ppm, and only declined at 6-times the modern pCO2 value of 2553 ppm. Corals reared at average pCO2 of 488 ppm and at temperatures of 25 and 32 °C, approximately the lower and upper temperature extremes for this species, calcified at lower rates relative to corals reared at 28 °C under equivalent pCO2. These results support the existing evidence that scleractinian corals such as S. siderea are able to manipulate the carbonate chemistry at their calcification site, enabling them to maintain their calcification rates under elevated pCO2 levels predicted for the end of this century. However, exposure of S. siderea corals to sea surface temperatures predicted for tropical waters for the end of this century grossly impaired their rate of calcification. These findings suggest that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat to the coral S. siderea than does ocean acidification, at least under scenarios (B1, A1T, and B2) predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the 21st century. We are presently investigating the calcification responses of S. siderea to the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming, in order to better constrain how corals will respond to global CO2-induced changes that are predicted for the near future.

Rapid drawdown of Antarctica's Wordie Ice Shelf glaciers in response to ENSO/Southern Annular Mode-driven warming in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, C. C.; Gardner, A. S.

2017-10-01

Here we investigate the largest acceleration in ice flow across all of Antarctica between ∼2008 InSAR and 2014 Landsat velocity mappings. This occurred in glaciers that used to feed into the Wordie Ice Shelf on the west Antarctic Peninsula, which rapidly disintegrated in ∼1989. Between 2008 and 2014, these glaciers experienced at least a threefold increase in surface elevation drawdown relative to the 2002-2008 time period. After ∼20 yrs of relative stability, it is unlikely that the ice shelf collapse played a role in the large response. Instead, we find that the rapid acceleration and surface drawdown is linked to enhanced melting at the ice-ocean boundary, attributable to changes in winds driven by global atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), linking changes in grounded ice to atmospheric-driven ocean warming.

Contrasting Heat Budget Dynamics During Two La Niña Marine Heat Wave Events Along Northwestern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiangtao; Lowe, Ryan J.; Ivey, Gregory N.; Jones, Nicole L.; Zhang, Zhenling

2018-02-01

Two marine heat wave events along Western Australia (WA) during the alternate austral summer periods of 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, both linked to La Niña conditions, severely impacted marine ecosystems over more than 12° of latitude, which included the unprecedented bleaching of many coral reefs. Although these two heat waves were forced by similar large-scale climate drivers, the warming patterns differed substantially between events. The central coast of WA (south of 22°S) experienced greater warming in 2010/2011, whereas the northwestern coast of WA experienced greater warming in 2012/2013. To investigate how oceanic and atmospheric heat exchange processes drove these different spatial patterns, an analysis of the ocean heat budget was conducted by integrating remote sensing observations, in situ mooring data, and a high-resolution (˜1 km) ocean circulation model (Regional Ocean Modeling System). The results revealed substantial spatial differences in the relative contributions made by heat advection and air-sea heat exchange between the two heat wave events. During 2010/2011, anomalous warming driven by heat advection was present throughout the region but was much stronger south of 22°S where the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current strengthens. During 2012/2013, air-sea heat exchange had a much more positive (warming) influence on sea surface temperatures (especially in the northwest), and when combined with a more positive contribution of heat advection in the north, this can explain the regional differences in warming between these two La Niña-associated marine heat wave events.

Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garuba, Oluwayemi

An important parameter for the climate response to increased greenhouse gases or other radiative forcing is the speed at which heat anomalies propagate downward in the ocean. Ocean heat uptake occurs through passive advection/diffusion of surface heat anomalies and through the redistribution of existing temperature gradients due to circulation changes. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakens in a warming climate and this should slow the downward heat advection (compared to a case in which the circulation is unchanged). However, weakening AMOC also causes a deep warming through the redistributive effect, thus increasing the downward rate of heat propagation compared to unchanging circulation. Total heat uptake depends on the combined effect of these two mechanisms. Passive tracers in a perturbed CO2 quadrupling experiments are used to investigate the effect of passive advection and redistribution of temperature anomalies. A new passive tracer formulation is used to separate ocean heat uptake into contributions due to redistribution and passive advection-diffusion of surface heating during an ocean model experiment with abrupt increase in surface temperature. The spatial pattern and mechanisms of each component are examined. With further experiments, the effects of surface wind, salinity and temperature changes in changing circulation and the resulting effect on redistribution in the individual basins are isolated. Analysis of the passive advection and propagation path of the tracer show that the Southern ocean dominates heat uptake, largely through vertical and horizontal diffusion. Vertical diffusion transports the tracer across isopycnals down to about 1000m in 100 years in the Southern ocean. Advection is more important in the subtropical cells and in the Atlantic high latitudes, both with a short time scale of about 20 years. The shallow subtropical cells transport the tracer down to about 500m along isopycnal surfaces, below this vertical diffusion takes over transport in the tropics; in the Atlantic, the MOC transports heat as deep 2000m in about 30 years. Redistributive surface heat uptake alters the total amount surface heat uptake among the basins. Compared to the passive-only heat uptake, which is about the same among the basins, redistribution nearly doubles the surface heat input into the Atlantic but makes smaller increases in the Indian and Pacific oceans for a net global increase of about 25%, in the perturbation experiment with winds unchanged. The passive and redistributive heat uptake components are further distributed among the basins through the global conveyor belt. The Pacific gains twice the surface heat input into it through lateral transport from the other two basins, as a result, the Atlantic and Pacific gain similar amounts of heat even though surface heat input is in the Atlantic is much bigger. Of this heat transport, most of the passive component comes from the Indian and the redistributive component comes from the Atlantic. Different surface forcing perturbation gives different circulation change pattern and as a result yield different redistributive uptake. Ocean heat uptake is more sensitive to wind forcing perturbation than to thermohaline forcing perturbation. About 2% reduction in subtropical cells transport and southern ocean transport, in the wind-change perturbation experiment, resulted in about 10% reduction in the global ocean heat uptake of wind-unchanged experiment. The AMOC weakened by about 35% and resulted in a 25% increase in passive heat uptake in the wind-unchanged experiment. Surface winds weakening reduces heat uptake by warming the reservoir surface temperatures, while MOC weakening increases heat input by a cooling reservoir surface temperatures. Thermohaline forcing perturbation is combination of salinity and temperature perturbations, both weaken the AMOC, however, they have opposite redistributive effects. Ocean surface freshening gives positive redistributive effect, while surface temperature increase gives negative redistributive effect on heat uptake. The salinity effect dominates the redistributive effect for thermohaline perturbation.

Evolution of biogeochemical cycling of phosphorus during 45~50 Ma revealed by sequential extraction analysis of IODP Expedition 302 cores from the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, S.; Yamaguchi, K. E.; Takahashi, K.

2012-12-01

The modern Arctic Ocean plays crucial roles in controlling global climate system with the driving force of global thermohaline circulation through the formation of dense deep water and high albedo due to the presence of perennial sea-ice. However, the Arctic sea-ice has not always existed in the past. Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 302 Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) has clarified that global warming (water temperature: ca. 14~16○C) during 48~49 Ma Azolla Event induced the loss of sea-ice and desalination of surface ocean, and that sea-ice formed again some million years later (45 Ma). In the Arctic Ocean, warming and cooling events repeated over and over (e.g., Brinkhuis et al., 2006; Moran et al., 2006; März et al., 2010). Large variations in the extent of thermohaline circulation through time often caused stagnation of seawater and appearance of anaerobic environment where hydrogen sulfide was produced by bacterial sulfate reduction. Ogawa et al. (2009) confirmed occurrence of framboidal pyrite in the ACEX sediments, and suggested that the Arctic Ocean at the time was anoxic, analogous to the modern Black Sea, mainly based on sulfur isotope analysis. To further clarify the variations in the nutrient status of the Arctic Ocean, we focus on the geochemical cycle of phosphorus. We performed sequential extraction analysis of sedimentary phosphorus in the ACEX sediments, using the method that we improvped based on the original SEDEX method by Ruttenberg (1992) and Schenau et al. (2000). In our method, phosphorus fractions are divided into five forms; (1) absorbed P, (2) Feoxide-P, (4) carbonate fluorapatite (CFAP) + CaCO3-P + hydroxylapatite (HAP), (4) detrital P, and (5) organic P. Schenau et al. (2000) divided the (3) fraction into non-biological CFAP and biological HAP and CaCO3-P. When the Arctic Ocean was closed and in its warming period, the water mass was most likely stratified and an anaerobic condition would have prevailed where bacterial sulfate reduction was active. In this case, most of the phosphorus in sediment was stored as organic P, which was originally derived as sinking particles of detrital plankton from the surface ocean. Increased rainfalls during such a warming period would have enhanced continental weathering and delivery of phosphorus to the surface ocean, and biological activity using increased amounts of phosphorus supply would also have increased. Feoxide-P is considered to be less important as a sink for phosphorus because of the likely formation of pyrite through the reductive dissolution of Fe oxide. CFAP could be a sink for phosphorus, because the formation of CFAP tends to increase with increasing age and depth.

Continental Heat Gain in the Global Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Beltrami, H.; Pollack, H. N.; Huang, S.

2001-12-01

Observed increases in 20th century surface-air temperatures are one consequence of a net energy flux into all major components of the Earth climate system including the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and lithosphere. Levitus et al. [2001] have estimated the heat gained by the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere as 18.2x1022 J, 6.6x1021 J, and 8.1x1021 J, respectively, over the past half-century. However the heat gain of the lithosphere via a heat flux across the solid surface of the continents (30% of the Earth's surface) was not addressed in the Levitus analysis. Here we calculate that final component of Earth's changing energy budget, using ground-surface temperature reconstructions for the continents [Huang et al., 2000]. These reconstructions have shown a warming of at least 0.5 K in the 20th century and were used to determine the flux estimates presented here. In the last half-century, the interval of time considered by Levitus et al., there was an average flux of 40 mW/m2 across the land surface into the subsurface, leading to 9.2x1021 J absorbed by the ground. This amount of heat is significantly less than the energy transferred into the oceans, but of the same magnitude as the energy absorbed by the atmosphere or cryosphere. The heat inputs into all the major components of the climate system - atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere - conservatively sum to more than 20x1022 J during the last half-century, and reinforce the conclusion that the warming in this interval has been truly global. Huang, S., Pollack, H.N., and Shen, P.-Y. 2000. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature. 403. 756-758 Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Wang, J., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. and Broccoli, A. 2001. Anthropogenic warming of the Earth's climate system. Science, 292, 267-270

Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

2016-01-01

The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

Extreme Marine Warming Across Tropical Australia During Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Feng, Ming; Marshall, Andrew G.

2018-02-01

During austral summer 2015-2016, prolonged extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), occurred in the waters around tropical Australia. MHWs arose first in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean in November 2015, emerging progressively east until March 2016, when all waters from the North West Shelf to the Coral Sea were affected. The MHW maximum intensity tended to occur in March, coinciding with the timing of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST). Large areas were in a MHW state for 3-4 months continuously with maximum intensities over 2°C. In 2016, the Indonesian-Australian Basin and areas including the Timor Sea and Kimberley shelf experienced the longest and most intense MHW from remotely sensed SST dating back to 1982. In situ temperature data from temperature loggers at coastal sites revealed a consistent picture, with MHWs appearing from west to east and peaking in March 2016. Temperature data from moorings, an Argo float, and Slocum gliders showed the extent of warming with depth. The events occurred during a strong El Niño and weakened monsoon activity, enhanced by the extended suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reduced cloud cover in January and February 2016 led to positive air-sea heat flux anomalies into the ocean, predominantly due to the shortwave radiation contribution with a smaller additional contribution from the latent heat flux anomalies. A data-assimilating ocean model showed regional changes in the upper ocean circulation and a change in summer surface mixed layer depths and barrier layer thicknesses consistent with past El Niño events.

Role of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool in Rapid Climate Changes over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il

2017-04-01

Oceanic states over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is surrounded by heavily populated countries, are closely tied to the lives of the people in East Asia in regards to both climate and socioeconomics. As global warming continues, remarkable increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) have been observed in the WNP in recent decades. Here, we show that the SST increase in the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP), which is the second largest warm pool on the globe, has contributed considerably to the rapid surface warming and sea level rise in the WNP via its remote teleconnection along the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). State-of-the-art climate models strongly support the role of the WHWP not only on interannual time sales but also in long-term climate projections. We expect that understanding the processes initiated by the WHWP-SST could permit better forecasts of western North Pacific climate and the further development of the socioeconomics of East Asia.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

PubMed

Chust, Guillem; Allen, J Icarus; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason; Tsiaras, Kostas; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L; Machu, Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschon, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris; Garçon, Veronique; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier

2014-07-01

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Zhang, Y.

2016-02-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

PubMed Central

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-01-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004–2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate. PMID:26522168

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

PubMed

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-02

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.

2003-12-01

The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must have been primarily responsible for NHG at 2.75 Ma. And, regional air-sea feedbacks in the tropics, rather than ice sheet expansion, must have been primarily responsible for the marked increase in Walker circulation at 2.0 Ma. Finally, the detailed timing of events from different regions suggests that a tectonic `threshold' cannot explain the warm to cold climate transition. Studies of the last 5.0 Ma can also be used to understand how climate responds to changes in the Earth's radiative budget because seasonal and latitudinal variations in solar forcing are extremely well known, and many of the records that have been generated have the resolution and age control appropriate for the study of the climate response to these variations (Milankovitch cycles). In particular, how feedbacks operate when the mean climate state is warm versus cold can be studied. There is clear evidence that the amplitude of the climate response to solar forcing depends on the background mean state. In other words, the sensitivity of the climate to small perturbations in solar forcing has changed with time, and the balance of evidence indicates that tropical conditions, not high latitude conditions (such as ice sheet size) control this sensitivity. In sum, the Ocean Drilling Program has provided scientists with a window into the Pliocene warm period, and an opportunity to understand the workings of the ocean-climate system

Structure of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over an oceanic thermal front: SEMAPHORE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, B. H.; BéNech, B.; Lambert, D.; Durand, P.; Druilhet, A.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1998-10-01

The Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiment, the third phase of which took place between October 4 and November 17, 1993, was conducted over the oceanic Azores Current located in the Azores basin and mainly marked at the surface by a thermal front due to the gradient of the sea surface temperature (SST) of about 1° to 2°C per 100 km. The evolution of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over the SST front was studied with two aircraft and a ship in different meteorological conditions. For each case, the influence of the incoming air direction with respect to the orientation of the oceanic front was taken into account. During the campaign, advanced very high resolution radiometer pictures did not show any relation between the SST field and the cloud cover. The MABL was systematically thicker on the warm side than on the cold side. The mean MABL structure described from aircraft data collected in a vertical plane crossing the oceanic front was characterized by (1) an atmospheric horizontal gradient of 1° to 2°C per 100 km in the whole depth of the mixed layer and (2) an increase of the wind intensity from the cold to the warm side when the synoptic wind blew from the cold side. The surface sensible heat (latent heat) flux always increased from the cold to the warm sector owing to the increase of the wind and of the temperature (specific humidity) difference between the surface and the air. Turbulence increased from the cold to the warm side in conjunction with the MABL thickening, but the normalized profiles presented the same structure, regardless of the position over the SST front. In agreement with the Action de Recherche Programme te Petite Echelle and Grande Echelle model, the mean temperature and momentum budgets were highly influenced by the horizontal temperature gradient. In particular, the strong ageostrophic influence in the MABL above the SST front seems linked with the secondary circulation due to the SST front.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2018-06-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

A wet-geology and cold-climate Mars model: Punctuation of a slow dynamic approach to equilibrium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kargel, J. S.

1993-01-01

It was suggested that Mars may have possessed a relatively warm humid climate and a vigorous hydrological cycle involving meteoric precipitation, oceans, and continental ice sheets. Baker hypothesized that these geologically active conditions may have been repeated several times; each of these dynamic epochs was followed by a collapse of the climate and hydrologic cycle of Mars into essentially current conditions, completing what is termed a 'Baker cycle'. The purpose is to present an endmember possibility that Martian glacial landscapes, including some that were previously considered to have formed under warm climatic conditions, might be explained by processes compatible with an extremely cold surface. Two aspects of hypothesized Martian glacial terrains were cited as favoring a warm climate during Baker cycles: (1) the formation of some landscapes, including possible eskers, tunnel channels, drumlins, and outwash plains, appears to have required liquid water, and (2) a liquid-surfaced ocean was probably necessary to feed the glaciers. The requirement for liquid water, if these features were correctly interpreted, is difficult to avoid; it is entirely possible that a comparatively warm climate was involved, but it is not clear that formation of landforms by wet-based glaciers actually requires a warm climate. Even less certain is the supposed requirement for liquid oceans. Formation of glaciers only requires a source of water or ice to supply an amount of precipitation that exceeds losses due to melting and sublimation. At Martian temperatures precipitation is very low, but so are melting and sublimation, so a large body of ice that is unstable with respect to sublimation may take the role of Earth's oceans in feeding the glaciers. Recent models suggest that even current Martian polar caps, long thought to be static bodies of ice and dust, might actually be slow-moving, cryogenic continental glaciers. Is it possible that subglacial processes beneath cryogenic (but wetbased) ice sheets formed the hypothesized Martian glacial landscapes?

Observation of local cloud and moisture feedbacks over high ocean and desert surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chahine, Moustafa T.

1995-01-01

New data on clouds and moisture, made possible by reanalysis of weather satellite observations, show that the atmosphere reacts to warm clusters of very high sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific Ocean with increased moisture, cloudiness, and convection, suggesting a negative feedback limiting the sea surface temperature rise. The reverse was observed over dry and hot deserts where both moisture and cloudiness decrease, suggesting a positive feedback perpetuating existing desert conditions. In addition, the observations show a common critical surface temperature for both oceans and land; the distribution of atmospheric moisture is observed to reach a maximum value when the daily surface temperatures approach 304 +/- 1 K. These observations reveal complex dynamic-radiative interactions where multiple processes act simultaneously at the surface as well as in the atmosphere to regulate the feedback processes.

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

An Assessment of the SST Simulation Using the Climate Forecast System Coupled to the SSiB Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Xue, Y.; Huang, B.; Lee, J.; De Sales, F.

2016-12-01

A long term simulation has been conducted using the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) coupled to the SSiB-2 land model, which consists of the Global Forecast System atmospheric model (GFS) and the Modular Ocean model - version 4 (MOM4) as the ocean component. This study evaluates the model's performance in simulating sea surface temperature (SST) mean state, trend, and inter-annual and decadal variabilities. The model is able to produce the reasonable spatial distribution of the SST climatology; however, it has prominent large scale biases. In the middle latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, major cold biases is close to the warm side of the large SST gradients, which may be associated with the weaker Kuroshio and Gulf Stream extensions that diffuse the SST gradient. IN addition, warm biases extend along the west coast of the North America continent to the high latitude, which may be related with excessive Ekman down-welling and solar radiation fluxes reaching to the surface due to the lack of cloud there. Warm biases also exist over the tropical cold tough areas in the Pacific and Atlantic. The global SST trend and interannual variations are well captured except for that in the south Hemisphere after year 2000, which is mainly contributed by the bias from the southern Pacific Ocean. Although the model fails to accurately produce ENSO events in proper years, it does reproduce the ENSO frequency well; they are skewed toward more warm events after 1990. The model also shows ability in SST decadal variation, such as the so-called inter-decadal Pacific oscillation (IPO); however, its phases seem to go reversely compared with the observation.

Imbalanced nutrient recycling in a warmer ocean driven by differential response of extracellular enzymatic activities.

PubMed

Ayo, Begoña; Abad, Naiara; Artolozaga, Itxaso; Azua, Iñigo; Baña, Zuriñe; Unanue, Marian; Gasol, Josep M; Duarte, Carlos M; Iriberri, Juan

2017-10-01

Ocean oligotrophication concurrent with warming weakens the capacity of marine primary producers to support marine food webs and act as a CO 2 sink, and is believed to result from reduced nutrient inputs associated to the stabilization of the thermocline. However, nutrient supply in the oligotrophic ocean is largely dependent on the recycling of organic matter. This involves hydrolytic processes catalyzed by extracellular enzymes released by bacteria, which temperature dependence has not yet been evaluated. Here, we report a global assessment of the temperature-sensitivity, as represented by the activation energies (E a ), of extracellular β-glucosidase (βG), leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) enzymatic activities, which enable the uptake by bacteria of substrates rich in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, respectively. These E a were calculated from two different approaches, temperature experimental manipulations and a space-for-time substitution approach, which generated congruent results. The three activities showed contrasting E a in the subtropical and tropical ocean, with βG increasing the fastest with warming, followed by LAP, while AP showed the smallest increase. The estimated activation energies predict that the hydrolysis products under projected warming scenarios will have higher C:N, C:P and N:P molar ratios than those currently generated, and suggest that the warming of oceanic surface waters leads to a decline in the nutrient supply to the microbial heterotrophic community relative to that of carbon, particularly so for phosphorus, slowing down nutrient recycling and contributing to further ocean oligotrophication. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multi-property modeling of ocean basin carbon fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volk, Tyler

1988-01-01

The objectives of this project were to elucidate the causal mechanisms in some of the most important features of the global ocean/atomsphere carbon system. These included the interaction of physical and biological processes in the seasonal cycle of surface water pCo2, and links between productivity, surface chlorophyll, and the carbon cycle that would aid global modeling efforts. In addition, several other areas of critical scientific interest involving links between the marine biosphere and the global carbon cycle were successfully pursued; specifically, a possible relation between phytoplankton emitted DMS and climate, and a relation between the location of calcium carbonate burial in the ocean and metamorphic source fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere. Six published papers covering the following topics are summarized: (1) Mass extinctions, atmospheric sulphur and climatic warming at the K/T boundary; (2) Sensitivity of climate and atmospheric CO2 to deep-ocean and shallow-ocean carbonate burial; (3) Controls on CO2 sources and sinks in the earthscale surface ocean; (4) pre-anthropogenic, earthscale patterns of delta pCO2 between ocean and atmosphere; (5) Effect on atmospheric CO2 from seasonal variations in the high latitude ocean; and (6) Limitations or relating ocean surface chlorophyll to productivity.

Analysis of near-shore sea surface temperatures in the Northern Pacific

EPA Science Inventory

Recent studies report a warming trend in Pacific Ocean temperatures over the last 50 years. However, much less is known about temperature change in the near-coastal environment, which is particularly sensitive to climatic change. In near-shore regions in situ sea surface temper...

The ocean-atmosphere response to wind-induced thermocline changes in the tropical South Western Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; Selten, F. M.; de Ruijter, W. P. M.; Hazeleger, W.

2015-08-01

In the Indian Ocean basin the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are most sensitive to changes in the oceanic depth of the thermocline in the region of the Seychelles Dome. Observational studies have suggested that the strong SST variations in this region influence the atmospheric evolution around the basin, while its impact could extend far into the Pacific and the extra-tropics. Here we study the adjustments of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to a winter shallow doming event using dedicated ensemble simulations with the state-of-the-art EC-Earth climate model. The doming creates an equatorial Kelvin wave and a pair of westward moving Rossby waves, leading to higher SST 1-2 months later in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Atmospheric convection is strengthened and the Walker circulation responds with reduced convection over Indonesia and cooling of the SST in that region. The Pacific warm pool convection shifts eastward and an oceanic Kelvin wave is triggered at thermocline depth. The wave leads to an SST warming in the East Equatorial Pacific 5-6 months after the initiation of the Seychelles Dome event. The atmosphere responds to this warming with weak anomalous atmospheric convection. The changes in the upper tropospheric divergence in this sequence of events create large-scale Rossby waves that propagate away from the tropics along the atmospheric waveguides. We suggest to repeat these types of experiments with other models to test the robustness of the results. We also suggest to create the doming event in June so that the East-Pacific warming occurs in November when the atmosphere is most sensitive to SST anomalies and El Niño could possibly be triggered by the doming event under suitable conditions.

Outgassing of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific during the Pliocene period.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillermic, M.; Tripati, A.

2016-12-01

The transition from the warm, ice-free conditions of the early Cenozoic to present-day glacial state with ice sheets in both hemispheres has been ascribed to long- and short-term changes in atmospheric CO2. The processes causing long-term changes in atmospheric CO2 levels are of debate. One possible explanation for changes in atmospheric CO2 relates to changes in air-sea exchange due to fluctuations in ocean carbon sources and sinks, as modulated by the stratification of surface waters. While nutrient consumption in low-latitude environments and associated export of CO2 to the deep sea works to sequester CO2 in the ocean interior, the return of deep water to the surface in the high latitudes and upwelling at the equator and in the eastern portion of ocean basins releases CO2. Quantitative estimates for surface water pH and pCO2 in different regions of the ocean and identification of CO2-sources and sinks are needed to better understand the role of the ocean in driving and/or amplifying variations in the atmospheric CO2 reservoir and climate change. Here we present preliminary results of surface water pH for the early Pliocene to Holocene based on boron isotope measurements of planktic foraminifera for the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. We develop records of B/Ca, Mg/Ca ratios, boron isotopes, and oxygen isotopes measurements in foraminifera tests (Globigeneroides sacculifer, Globigeneroides ruber, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei). We reconstruct changes in ocean CO2 outgassing in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific using records from ODP Site 847 (0°N, 95°W, 3373 m water depth). These data are used to examine if there is evidence for changes in stratification and CO2 outgassing during the early Pliocene warm period and during Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Contribution of tropical cyclones to abnormal sea surface temperature warming in the Yellow Sea in December 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Taekyun; Choo, Sung-Ho; Moon, Jae-Hong; Chang, Pil-Hun

2017-12-01

Unusual sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred over the Yellow Sea (YS) in December 2004. To identify the causes of the abnormal SST warming, we conducted an analysis on atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and their impacts on upper ocean characteristics using multiple datasets. With the analysis of various datasets, we explored a new aspect of the relationship between TC activity and SST. The results show that there is a significant link between TC activity over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and SST in the YS. The integrated effect of consecutive TCs activity induces a large-scale atmospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly over the NWP and consequently anomalous easterly winds over the YS and East China Sea. The mechanism of the unusually warm SST in the YS can be explained by considering TCs acting as an important source of Ekman heat transport that results in substantial intrusion of relatively warm surface water into the YS interior. Furthermore, TC-related circulation anomalies contribute to the retention of the resulting warm SST anomalies in the entire YS.

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-06-12

The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Interactions of arctic clouds, radiation, and sea ice in present-day and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, Melissa Ann

The Arctic climate system involves complex interactions among the atmosphere, land surface, and the sea-ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Observed changes in the Arctic have emerged and projected climate trends are of significant concern. Surface warming over the last few decades is nearly double that of the entire Earth. Reduced sea-ice extent and volume, changes to ecosystems, and melting permafrost are some examples of noticeable changes in the region. This work is aimed at improving our understanding of how Arctic clouds interact with, and influence, the surface budget, how clouds influence the distribution of sea ice, and the role of downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) in climate change. In the first half of this study, we explore the roles of sea-ice thickness and downwelling longwave radiation in Arctic amplification. As the Arctic sea ice thins and ultimately disappears in a warming climate, its insulating power decreases. This causes the surface air temperature to approach the temperature of the relatively warm ocean water below the ice. The resulting increases in air temperature, water vapor and cloudiness lead to an increase in the surface downwelling longwave radiation, which enables a further thinning of the ice. This positive ice-insulation feedback operates mainly in the autumn and winter. A climate-change simulation with the Community Earth System Model shows that, averaged over the year, the increase in Arctic DLR is three times stronger than the increase in Arctic absorbed solar radiation at the surface. The warming of the surface air over the Arctic Ocean during fall and winter creates a strong thermal contrast with the colder surrounding continents. Sea-level pressure falls over the Arctic Ocean and the high-latitude circulation reorganizes into a shallow "winter monsoon." The resulting increase in surface wind speed promotes stronger surface evaporation and higher humidity over portions of the Arctic Ocean, thus reinforcing the ice-insulation feedback. In the second half of this study, we explore the effects of super-parameterization on the Arctic climate by evaluating a number of key atmospheric characteristics that strongly influence the regional and global climate. One aspect in particular that we examine is the occurrence of Arctic weather states. Observations show that during winter the Arctic exhibits two preferred and persistent states --- a radiatively clear and an opaquely cloudy state. These distinct regimes are influenced by the phase of the clouds and affect the surface radiative fluxes. We explore the radiative and microphysical effects of these Arctic clouds and the influence on these regimes in two present-day climate simulations. We compare simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart (SP-CESM). We find that the SP-CESM is able to better reproduce both of the preferred winter states, compared to CESM, and has an overall more realistic representation of the Arctic climate.

Solar Radiation and Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Pacific Warm Pool Estimated Using TOGA COARE Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong

1999-01-01

The energy budget of the tropical western Pacific (TWP) is particularly important because this is one of the most energetic convection regions on the Earth. Nearly half of the solar radiation incident at the top of atmosphere is absorbed at the surface and only about 22% absorbed in the atmosphere. A large portion of the excess heat absorbed at the surface is transferred to the atmosphere through evaporation, which provides energy and water for convection and precipitation. The western equatorial Pacific is characterized by the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and heaviest rainfall in the world ocean. A small variation of SST associated with the eastward shift of the warm pool during El-Nino/Souther Oscillation changes the atmospheric circulation pattern and affects the global climate. In a study of the TWP surface heat and momentum fluxes during the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) Intensive observing period (IOP) from November 1992 to February have found that the solar radiation is the most important component of the surface energy budget, which undergoes significant temporal and spatial variation. The variations are influenced by the two 40-50 days Madden Julian Oscillations (MJOs) which propagated eastward from the Indian Ocean to the Central Pacific during the IOP. The TWP surface solar radiation during the COARE IOP was investigated by a number of studies. In addition, the effects of clouds on the solar heating of the atmosphere in the TWP was studied using energy budget analysis. In this study, we present some results of the TWP surface solar shortwave or SW radiation budget and the effect of clouds on the atmospheric solar heating using the surface radiation measurements and Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 4 radiance measurements during COARE IOP.

Linking water and carbon cycles through salinity observed from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, X.; Liu, W. T.

2017-12-01

The association of ocean surface salinity in global hydrological cycle and climate change has been traditionally studied through the examination of its tendency and advection as manifestation of ocean's heat and water fluxes with the atmosphere. The variability of surface heat and water fluxes are linked to top of atmosphere radiation, whose imbalance is the main cause of global warming. Besides the link of salinity to greenhouse warming through water balance, this study will focus on the effect of changing salinity on carbon dioxide flux between the ocean and the atmosphere. We have built statistical models to estimate the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and ocean acidification (in terms of total alkalinity and pH) using spacebased data. PCO2 is a critical parameter governing ocean as source and sink of the accumulated greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The exchange also causes ocean acidification, which is detrimental to marine lives and ecology. Before we had sufficient spacebased salinity measurements coincident with in situ pCO2 measurement, we trained our statistical models to use satellite sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, with one model using salinity climatology and the other without. We found significant differences between the two models in regions of strong water input through river discharge and surface water flux. The pCO2 output follows the seasonal salinity advection of the Amazon outflow. The seasonal salinity advection between Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are followed by change of pCO2 and total alkalinity. At shorter time scales, the signatures of rain associated with intraseasonal organized convection of summer monsoon can be detected. We have observed distribution agreement of among pCO2, surface salinity, and surface water flux for variation from a few days to a few years under the Pacific ITCZ; the agreement varies slightly with season and longitudes and the reason is under study.

An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915-1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, P.; Song, Y.; Yu, Y.; Liu, H.

2014-06-01

In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model - Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905-1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50-70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice-albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid-high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.

Onset and demise of Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events: The coupling of surface and bottom oceanic processes in two pelagic basins of the western Tethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gambacorta, G.; Bersezio, R.; Weissert, H.; Erba, E.

2016-06-01

The upper Albian-lower Turonian pelagic successions of the Tethys record processes acting during the onset, core, and recovery from perturbed conditions across oceanic anoxic event (OAE) 1d, OAE 2, and the mid-Cenomanian event I (MCE I) relative to intervening intervals. Five sections from Umbria-Marche and Belluno Basins (Italy) were analyzed at high resolution to assess processes in surface and deep waters. Recurrent facies stacking patterns (SP) and their associations record periods of bottom current activity coupled with surface changes in trophic level. Climate changes appear to have been influential on deep circulation dynamics. Under greenhouse conditions, vigorous bottom currents were arguably induced by warm and dense saline deep waters originated on tropical shelves in the Tethys and/or proto-Atlantic Ocean. Tractive facies postdating intermittent anoxia during OAE 1d and in the interval bracketed by MCE I and OAE 2 are indicative of feeble bottom currents, though capable of disrupting stratification and replenish deep water with oxygen. The major warming at the onset of OAE 2 might have enhanced the formation of warm salty waters, possibly producing local hiatuses at the base of the Bonarelli Level and winnowing at the seafloor. Hiatuses detected at the top of the Bonarelli Level possibly resulted from most effective bottom currents during the early Turonian thermal maximum. Times of minimal sediment displacement correlate with cooler climatic conditions and testify a different mechanism of deep water formation, as further suggested by a color change to reddish lithologies of the post-OAE 1d and post-OAE 2 intervals.

Extreme warming, photic zone euxinia and sea level rise during the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum on the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain; connecting marginal marine biotic signals, nutrient cycling and ocean deoxygenation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sluijs, A.; van Roij, L.; Harrington, G. J.; Schouten, S.; Sessa, J. A.; LeVay, L. J.; Reichart, G.-J.; Slomp, C. P.

2013-12-01

The Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) was a ~200 kyr episode of global warming, associated with massive injections of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Although climate change during the PETM is relatively well constrained, effects on marine oxygen and nutrient cycling remain largely unclear. We identify the PETM in a sediment core from the US margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Biomarker-based paleotemperature proxies (MBT/CBT and TEX86) indicate that continental air and sea surface temperatures warmed from 27-29 °C to ~35 °C, although variations in the relative abundances of terrestrial and marine biomarkers may have influenced the record. Vegetation changes as recorded from pollen assemblages supports profound warming. Lithology, relative abundances of terrestrial vs. marine palynomorphs as well as dinoflagellate cyst and biomarker assemblages indicate sea level rise during the PETM, consistent with previously recognized eustatic rise. The recognition of a maximum flooding surface during the PETM changes regional sequence stratigraphic interpretations, which allows us to exclude the previously posed hypothesis that a nearby fossil found in PETM-deposits represents the first North American primate. Within the PETM we record the biomarker isorenieratane, diagnostic of euxinic photic zone conditions. A global data compilation indicates that deoxygenation occurred in large regions of the global ocean in response to warming, hydrological change, and carbon cycle feedbacks, particularly along continental margins, analogous to modern trends. Seafloor deoxygenation and widespread anoxia likely caused phosphorus regeneration from suboxic and anoxic sediments. We argue that this fuelled shelf eutrophication, as widely recorded from microfossil studies, increasing organic carbon burial along continental margins as a negative feedback to carbon input and global warming. If properly quantified with future work, the PETM offers the opportunity to assess the biogeochemical effects of enhanced phosphorus regeneration, as well as the time-scales on which this feedback operates in view of modern and future ocean deoxygenation.

Hydrographic and fish larvae distribution during the "Godzilla El Niño 2015-2016" in the northern end of the shallow oxygen minimum zone of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Velasco, L.; Beier, E.; Godínez, V. M.; Barton, E. D.; Santamaría-del-Angel, E.; Jiménez-Rosemberg, S. P. A.; Marinone, S. G.

2017-03-01

Based on hydrographic data and vertical distributions of tropical species of fish larvae (Diogenichthys laternatus, Vinciguerria lucetia, Bregmaceros bathymaster, and Auxis spp.), effects of "Godzilla El Niño 2015-2016" in the shallow oxygen minimum zone off Mexico were analyzed. Zooplankton samples were collected during four cruises, before (February 2010 and April 2012) and during (June 2015 and March 2016) the warm event. Temporal series of sea surface temperature revealed that June 2015 was the warmest June of the last years. Conservative temperature was >2°C higher than normal in the surface mixed layer, and the suboxic layer (4.4 µmol/kg) reached as shallow as 100 m depth. Unexpected results were that larval abundances were relatively high during the warm event, unlike zooplankton volumes, which declined. Before the warm event, V. lucetia and Auxis spp. were more abundant in the surface mixed layer, while B. bathymaster and D. laternatus dominated in the thermocline and shallow hypoxic layer (44 µmol/kg). However, during the event in June 2015, all species were most abundant in the surface mixed layer, which implied that the species adapted to hypoxia had inverted their normal pattern of distribution, possibly as consequence of the rise of the suboxic layer; however, further observations are required to confirm this generality. Results showed no dramatic change in the total larval abundance during the warm event. Nevertheless, a differential response in their vertical distribution was evident in association with changes in the depth of the shallow hypoxic and suboxic layers. This might indicate adaptability of tropical species to prolonged periods of warming in the oceans.

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND WARMING ON THE MORTALITY AND DISSOLUTION OF CORALLINE ALGAE(1).

PubMed

Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Kline, David I; Dove, Sophie; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2012-02-01

Coralline algae are among the most sensitive calcifying organisms to ocean acidification as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 ). Little is known, however, about the combined impacts of increased pCO2 , ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature on tissue mortality and skeletal dissolution of coralline algae. To address this issue, we conducted factorial manipulative experiments of elevated CO2 and temperature and examined the consequences on tissue survival and skeletal dissolution of the crustose coralline alga (CCA) Porolithon (=Hydrolithon) onkodes (Heydr.) Foslie (Corallinaceae, Rhodophyta) on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. We observed that warming amplified the negative effects of high pCO2 on the health of the algae: rates of advanced partial mortality of CCA increased from <1% to 9% under high CO2 (from 400 to 1,100 ppm) and exacerbated to 15% under warming conditions (from 26°C to 29°C). Furthermore, the effect of pCO2 on skeletal dissolution strongly depended on temperature. Dissolution of P. onkodes only occurred in the high-pCO2 treatment and was greater in the warm treatment. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with a significant increase in the abundance of endolithic algae. Our results demonstrate that P. onkodes is particularly sensitive to ocean acidification under warm conditions, suggesting that previous experiments focused on ocean acidification alone have underestimated the impact of future conditions on coralline algae. Given the central role that coralline algae play within coral reefs, these conclusions have serious ramifications for the integrity of coral-reef ecosystems. © 2011 Phycological Society of America.

Ocean-atmosphere coupling at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region based on in situ, satellite and numerical model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casagrande, F.; Souza, R.; Pezzi, L.

2013-05-01

In the Southwest Atlantic close to 40oS, the meeting of two ocean currents with distinct characteristics, the Brazil Current (BC), warm and saline, and the Malvinas Current (MC), cold and low salinity, resulting in strong activity marked by the formation of mesoscale eddies, this region is known as Brazil Malvinas Confluence (BMC). The INTERCONF project (Ocean Atmosphere Interaction over the region of CBM) perfoms since the 2002 data collection in situ radiosondes and XBTs onboard the Oceanographic Support Ship Ary Rongel during its trajectory of Brazil to the Antarctic continent. This paper analyzes the thermal contrast and ocean atmosphere coupling on the ocean front from the INTERCONF data, and compares the results to satellite data (QuikSCAT) and numerical models (Eta-CPTEC / INPE). The results indicate that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is driving the atmosphere, on the warm waters of the BC occurs an intensification of the winds and heat fluxes, and the reverse occurs on the cold waters of the MC. The data collected in 2009 include the presence of a warm core eddy (42 oS to 43.1 oS) which recorded higher values of heat fluxes and wind speed in relation to its surroundings. On the warm core eddy wind speed recorded was about 10 m.s-1, while on the BC and MC was approximately 7 m.s-1 and 2 m.s-1, respectively. Satellite data and numerical model tends to overestimate the wind speed data in the region in relation to data collected in situ. The heat flux data from the numerical model tend to increase over the warm waters and cold waters on the decline, though the amounts recorded by the model have low correlation.

Waves That Feed El Niños

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-10-29

Pools of warm water known as Kelvin waves can be seen traveling eastward along the equator black line in this image from the NASA/French Space Agency Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 satellite.

Global surface temperature change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, K. B.; Ma, Y.; Tan, X. L.; Shen, X. Y.; Liu, G.; Li, Z. L.; Chen, J. M.; Xia, L.

2017-01-01

Global surface temperature change is one of the most important aspects in global climate change research. In this study, in order to overcome shortcomings of traditional observation methods in meteorology, a new method is proposed to calculate global mean surface temperature based on remote sensing data. We found that (1) the global mean surface temperature was close to 14.35 °C from 2001 to 2012, and the warmest and coldest surface temperatures of the global in the recent twelve years occurred in 2005 and 2008, respectively; (2) the warmest and coldest surface temperatures on the global land surface occurred in 2005 and 2001, respectively, and on the global ocean surface in 2010 and 2008, respectively; and (3) in recent twelve years, although most regions (especially the Southern Hemisphere) are warming, global warming is yet controversial because it is cooling in the central and eastern regions of Pacific Ocean, northern regions of the Atlantic Ocean, northern regions of China, Mongolia, southern regions of Russia, western regions of Canada and America, the eastern and northern regions of Australia, and the southern tip of Africa. The analysis of daily and seasonal temperature change indicates that the temperature change is mainly caused by the variation of orbit of celestial body. A big data model based on orbit position and gravitational-magmatic change of celestial body with the solar or the galactic system should be built and taken into account for climate and ecosystems change at a large spatial-temporal scale.

Summary of results of January climate simulations with the GISS coarse-mesh model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

The large scale climates generated by extended runs of the model are relatively independent of the initial atmospheric conditions, if the first few months of each simulation are discarded. The perpetual January simulations with a specified SST field produced excessive snow accumulation over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Mass exchanges between the cold (warm) continents and the warm (cold) adjacent oceans produced significant surface pressure changes over the oceans as well as over the land. The effect of terrain and terrain elevation on the amount of precipitation was examined. The evaporation of continental moisture was calculated to cause large increases in precipitation over the continents.

The geological and climatological case for a warmer and wetter early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Craddock, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The climate of early Mars remains a topic of intense debate. Ancient terrains preserve landscapes consistent with stream channels, lake basins and possibly even oceans, and thus the presence of liquid water flowing on the Martian surface 4 billion years ago. However, despite the geological evidence, determining how long climatic conditions supporting liquid water lasted remains uncertain. Climate models have struggled to generate sufficiently warm surface conditions given the faint young Sun—even assuming a denser early atmosphere. A warm climate could have potentially been sustained by supplementing atmospheric CO2 and H2O warming with either secondary greenhouse gases or clouds. Alternatively, the Martian climate could have been predominantly cold and icy, with transient warming episodes triggered by meteoritic impacts, volcanic eruptions, methane bursts or limit cycles. Here, we argue that a warm and semi-arid climate capable of producing rain is most consistent with the geological and climatological evidence.

Warm mid-Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the southern Tethys Ocean and cool high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Arctic Ocean: asymmetric worldwide distribution of dinoflagellates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masure, Edwige; Desmares, Delphine; Vrielynck, Bruno

2014-05-01

Dealing with 87 articles and using a Geographical Information System, Masure and Vrielynck (2009) have mapped worldwide biogeography of 38 Late Albian dinoflagellate cysts and have demonstrated Cretaceous oceanic bioclimatic belts. For comparison 30 Aptian species derived from 49 studies (Masure et al., 2013) and 49 Cenomanian species recorded from 33 articles have been encountered. Tropical, Subtropical, Boreal, Austral, bipolar and cosmopolitan species have been identified and Cretaceous dinoflagellate biomes are introduced. Asymmetric distribution of Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian subtropical Tethyan species, from 40°N to 70°S, demonstrates asymmetric Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients with warm water masses in high latitudes of Southern Ocean. The SST gradients were stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. We note that Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian dinoflagellates restricted to subtropical and subpolar latitudes met and mixed at 35-40°N, while they mixed from 30°S to 70°S and from 50°S to 70°S respectively in the Southern Hemisphere. Mixing belts extend on 5° in the Northern Hemisphere and along 40° (Aptian) and 20° (Late Albian/Cenomanian) in the Southern one. The board southern mixing belt of Tethyan and Austral dinoflagellates suggest co-occurrence of warm and cold currents. We record climatic changes such as the Early Aptian cooler period and Late Aptian and Albian warming through the poleward migration of species constrained to cool water masses. These species sensitive to temperature migrated from 35°N to 55°N through the shallow Greenland-Norwergian Seaway connecting the Central Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. While Tethyan species did not migrate staying at 40°N. We suggest that the Greenland-Norwergian Seaway might has been a barrier until Late Albian/Cenomanian for oceanic Tethyan dinoflagellates stopped either by the shallow water column or temperature and salinity constraints. In the Northern Hemisphere the oceanic heat transport was stopped by continental masses located between the Tethys, Central Atlantic and Arctic Oceans while the heat transport in the Southern Hemisphere was not limited in the Tethys Ocean. Late Albian Boreal dinoflagellates inhabited the Western Interior Sea Way, with the warming and the sea level rise Late Cenomanian Tethyan species have been recorded up to 45°N. The estimation of temperatures requirements of dinoflagellates is modelled by combining the latitudinal distribution of species, with the estimated temperatures from δ18O or TEX86 ratios related to latitude. The Early Aptian subtropical dinoflagellates inhabited water masses with temperatures higher than 22°C. Late Albian subtropical dinoflagellates lived in water masses with temperatures of 24°C and tropical species in those in temperature up to 28°C. The Late Albian arctic dinoflagellates lived in water masses with temperature lower than 19°C. Biogeography of planktonic micro-organisms coupled with temperatures estimated from δ18O or TEX86 ratios increases their potential as palaeo-oceanographic proxies for a qualitative estimation of sea-surface temperatures and palaeo-biodiversity of world water masses and improves precision in biochronology. Masure E, Vrielynck B. 2009. Late Albian dinoflagellate cyst paleobiogeography as indicator of asymmetric sea surface temperature gradient on both hemispheres with southern high latitudes warmer than northern ones. Marine Micropaleontology 70, 120-133. Masure E, Aumar A-M, Vrielynck B. 2013. World palaeogeography of Aptian and Late Albian dinoflagellates cysts: Implications for sea surface temperature gradient and palaeoclimate in Lewis, JM, Marret F, Bradley L (eds). Biological and Geological Perspectives of Dinoflagellates. The Micropalaeontological Society, Special Publications. Geological Society, London, 97-125.

Solubility of polyethers in hydrocarbons at low temperatures. A model for potential genetic backbones on warm titans.

PubMed

McLendon, Christopher; Opalko, F Jeffrey; Illangkoon, Heshan I; Benner, Steven A

2015-03-01

Ethers are proposed here as the repeating backbone linking units in linear genetic biopolymers that might support Darwinian evolution in hydrocarbon oceans. Hydrocarbon oceans are found in our own solar system as methane mixtures on Titan. They may be found as mixtures of higher alkanes (propane, for example) on warmer hydrocarbon-rich planets in exosolar systems ("warm Titans"). We report studies on the solubility of several short polyethers in propane over its liquid range (from 85 to 231 K, or -188 °C to -42 °C). These show that polyethers are reasonably soluble in propane at temperatures down to ca. 200 K. However, their solubilities drop dramatically at still lower temperatures and become immeasurably low below 170 K, still well above the ∼ 95 K in Titan's oceans. Assuming that a liquid phase is essential for any living system, and genetic biopolymers must dissolve in that biosolvent to support Darwinism, these data suggest that we must look elsewhere to identify linear biopolymers that might support genetics in Titan's surface oceans. However, genetic molecules with polyether backbones may be suitable to support life in hydrocarbon oceans on warm Titans, where abundant organics and environments lacking corrosive water might make it easier for life to originate.

Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred.

It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate.

Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water.

The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer.

In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat.

This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant area of rising sea levels in the North Atlantic where sea levels are usually low. This large pool of rapidly rising warm water is evidence of a major change in ocean circulation. It signals a slow down in the sub-polar gyre, a counter-clockwise system of currents that loop between Ireland, Greenland and Newfoundland.

Such a change could have an impact on climate since the sub-polar gyre may be connected in some way to the nearby global thermohaline circulation, commonly known as the global conveyor belt. This is the slow-moving circulation in which water sinks in the North Atlantic at different locations around the sub-polar gyre, spreads south, travels around the globe, and slowly up-wells to the surface before returning around the southern tip of Africa. Then it winds its way through the surface currents in the Atlantic and eventually comes back to the North Atlantic.

It is unclear if the weakening of the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre is part of a natural cycle or related to global warming.

This image was made possible by the detailed record of sea surface height measurements begun by Topex/Poseidon and continued by Jason-1. The recently launched Ocean Surface Topography Mission on the Jason-2 satellite (OSTM/Jason-2) will soon take over this responsibility from Jason-1. The older satellite will move alongside OSTM/Jason-2 and continue to measure sea surface height on an adjacent ground track for as long as it is in good health.

Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 are joint missions of NASA and the French space agency, CNES. OSTM/Jason-2 is collaboration between NASA; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; CNES; and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. JPL manages the U.S. portion of the missions for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Chen, Wen; Gong, Hainan; Ying, Jun; Jiang, Wenping

2018-06-01

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Niño to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill-Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Niño warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air-sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Niño warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Niño is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Niño warming.

Assessing recent air-sea freshwater flux changes using a surface temperature-salinity space framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grist, Jeremy P.; Josey, Simon A.; Zika, Jan D.; Evans, Dafydd Gwyn; Skliris, Nikolaos

2016-12-01

A novel assessment of recent changes in air-sea freshwater fluxes has been conducted using a surface temperature-salinity framework applied to four atmospheric reanalyses. Viewed in the T-S space of the ocean surface, the complex pattern of the longitude-latitude space mean global Precipitation minus Evaporation (PME) reduces to three distinct regions. The analysis is conducted for the period 1979-2007 for which there is most evidence for a broadening of the (atmospheric) tropical belt. All four of the reanalyses display an increase in strength of the water cycle. The range of increase is between 2% and 30% over the period analyzed, with an average of 14%. Considering the average across the reanalyses, the water cycle changes are dominated by changes in tropical as opposed to mid-high latitude precipitation. The increases in the water cycle strength, are consistent in sign, but larger than in a 1% greenhouse gas run of the HadGEM3 climate model. In the model a shift of the precipitation/evaporation cells to higher temperatures is more evident, due to the much stronger global warming signal. The observed changes in freshwater fluxes appear to be reflected in changes in the T-S distribution of the Global Ocean. Specifically, across the diverse range of atmospheric reanalyses considered here, there was an acceleration of the hydrological cycle during 1979-2007 which led to a broadening of the ocean's salinity distribution. Finally, although the reanalyses indicate that the warm temperature tropical precipitation dominated water cycle change, ocean observations suggest that ocean processes redistributed the freshening to lower ocean temperatures.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-03-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

The Hadean-Archaean Environment

PubMed Central

Sleep, Norman H.

2010-01-01

A sparse geological record combined with physics and molecular phylogeny constrains the environmental conditions on the early Earth. The Earth began hot after the moon-forming impact and cooled to the point where liquid water was present in ∼10 million years Subsequently, a few asteroid impacts may have briefly heated surface environments, leaving only thermophile survivors in kilometer-deep rocks. A warm 500 K, 100 bar CO2 greenhouse persisted until subducted oceanic crust sequestered CO2 into the mantle. It is not known whether the Earth's surface lingered in a ∼70°C thermophile environment well into the Archaean or cooled to clement or freezing conditions in the Hadean. Recently discovered ∼4.3 Ga rocks near Hudson Bay may have formed during the warm greenhouse. Alkalic rocks in India indicate carbonate subduction by 4.26 Ga. The presence of 3.8 Ga black shales in Greenland indicates that S-based photosynthesis had evolved in the oceans and likely Fe-based photosynthesis and efficient chemical weathering on land. Overall, mantle derived rocks, especially kimberlites and similar CO2-rich magmas, preserve evidence of subducted upper oceanic crust, ancient surface environments, and biosignatures of photosynthesis. PMID:20516134

The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño).

PubMed

Fedorov, A V; Dekens, P S; McCarthy, M; Ravelo, A C; deMenocal, P B; Barreiro, M; Pacanowski, R C; Philander, S G

2006-06-09

During the early Pliocene, 5 to 3 million years ago, globally averaged temperatures were substantially higher than they are today, even though the external factors that determine climate were essentially the same. In the tropics, El Niño was continual (or "permanent") rather than intermittent. The appearance of northern continental glaciers, and of cold surface waters in oceanic upwelling zones in low latitudes (both coastal and equatorial), signaled the termination of those warm climate conditions and the end of permanent El Niño. This led to the amplification of obliquity (but not precession) cycles in equatorial sea surface temperatures and in global ice volume, with the former leading the latter by several thousand years. A possible explanation is that the gradual shoaling of the oceanic thermocline reached a threshold around 3 million years ago, when the winds started bringing cold waters to the surface in low latitudes. This introduced feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere interactions that, along with ice-albedo feedbacks, amplified obliquity cycles. A future melting of glaciers, changes in the hydrological cycle, and a deepening of the thermocline could restore the warm conditions of the early Pliocene.

Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Ocean to Precipitation Induced Freshwater Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Schopf, Paul S.

1999-01-01

We have performed a series of experiments using an ocean model to study the sensitivity of tropical Pacific Ocean to variations in precipitation induced freshwater fluxes. Variations in these fluxes arise from natural causes on all time scales. In addition, estimates of these fluxes are uncertain because of differences among measurement techniques. The model used is a quasi-isopycnal model, covering the Pacific from 40 S to 40 N. The surface forcing is constructed from observed wind stress, evaporation, precipitation, and surface temperature (SST) fields. The heat flux is produced with an iterative technique so as to maintain the model close to the observed climatology, but with only a weak damping to that climatology. Climatological estimates of evaporation are combined with various estimates of precipitation to determine the net surface freshwater flux. Results indicate that increased freshwater input decreases salinity as expected, but increases temperatures in the upper ocean. Using the freshwater flux estimated from the Microwave Sounding Unit leads to a warming of up to 0.6 C in the western Pacific over a case with zero net freshwater flux. SST is sensitive to the discrepancies among different precipitation observations, with root-mean-square differences in SST on the order of 0.2-0.3 C. The change in SST is more pronounced in the eastern Pacific, with differences of over 1 C found among the various precipitation products. Interannual variation in precipitation during El Nino events leads to increased warming. During the winter of 1982-83, freshwater flux accounts for about 0.4 C (approximately 10-15% of the maximum warming) of the surface warming in the central-eastern Pacific. Thus, the error of SST caused by the discrepancies in precipitation products is more than half of the SST anomaly produced by the interannual variability of observed precipitation. Further experiments, in which freshwater flux anomalies are imposed in the western, central, and eastern Pacific, show that the influence of net freshwater flux is also spatially dependent. The imposition of freshwater flux in the far western Pacific leads to a trapping of salinity anomaly to the surface layers near the equator. An identical flux imposed in the central Pacific produces deeper and off-equatorial salinity anomalies. The contrast between these two simulations is consistent with other simulations of the western Pacific barrier layer information.

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2017-11-30

Here, the temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO 2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity andmore » weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO 2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.« less

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Singh, Hansi A.

2018-01-01

The temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity and weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

Here, the temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO 2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity andmore » weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO 2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.« less

Forereef and backreef corals exhibit different responses to anthropogenic stressors in Belize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowell, S.; Foster, G. L.; Castillo, K.; Ries, J. B.; Tyrrell, T.

2016-02-01

The health of coral reefs is threatened by simultaneous anthropogenic impacts, namely ocean acidification, ocean warming, elevated nutrients (nutrification) and sedimentation. These processes have been shown to reduce the ability of corals to grow, but culturing experiments have previously demonstrated this response to vary across different reef environments and between different taxa. The absence of in-situ pH data, records of nutrient evolution and limited sea surface temperature (SST) measurements prior to the 1980s, has prevented the extent of either ocean acidification, nutrification or ocean warming to be quantified in Belize. Here, we have applied a multi-proxy approach (Li/Mg, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, δ11B, δ13C) to reconstruct these variables in corals from across the southern Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System over the last 100 years. We find that although the warming signal is spatially coherent, significant spatial variability exists in the extent of acidification and sediment input. Further investigations into the impact of such variability, and possible changes in net primary production must be conducted before we can conclude which anthropogenic stressor is responsible for the decline in forereef coral extension rates.

Oceanographic Controls on the Variability of Ice-Shelf Basal Melting and Circulation of Glacial Meltwater in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, Satoshi; Jenkins, Adrian; Regan, Heather; Holland, Paul R.; Assmann, Karen M.; Whitt, Daniel B.; Van Wessem, Melchoir; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Reijmer, Carleen H.; Dutrieux, Pierre

2017-12-01

Ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment have thinned, accelerating the seaward flow of ice sheets upstream over recent decades. This imbalance is caused by an increase in the ocean-driven melting of the ice shelves. Observations and models show that the ocean heat content reaching the ice shelves is sensitive to the depth of thermocline, which separates the cool, fresh surface waters from warm, salty waters. Yet the processes controlling the variability of thermocline depth remain poorly constrained. Here we quantify the oceanic conditions and ocean-driven melting of Cosgrove, Pine Island Glacier (PIG), Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment from 1991 to 2014 using a general circulation model. Ice-shelf melting is coupled to variability in the wind field and the sea-ice motions over the continental shelf break and associated onshore advection of warm waters in deep troughs. The layer of warm, salty waters at the calving front of PIG and Thwaites is thicker in austral spring (June-October) than in austral summer (December-March), whereas the seasonal cycle at the calving front of Dotson is reversed. Furthermore, the ocean-driven melting in PIG is enhanced by an asymmetric response to changes in ocean heat transport anomalies at the continental shelf break: melting responds more rapidly to increases in ocean heat transport than to decreases. This asymmetry is caused by the inland deepening of bathymetry and the glacial meltwater circulation around the ice shelf.

Rotary motions and convection as a means of regulating primary production in warm core rings. [of ocean currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yentsch, C. S.; Phinney, D. A.

1985-01-01

The term 'ring' is generally used in the case of a subdivision of ocean eddies. in the present investigation, it denotes mesoscale features which are spawned by the Gulf Stream. This investigation is concerned with the mechanism involved in the regulation of the growth of phytoplankton by the physical oceanographic features of rings. Gulf Stream rings were first observed by Parker (1971) and Fuglister (1972) as a result of extensive temperature measurements from ships in the Gulf Stream. Attention is given to changes in density boundaries associated with the rotation of rings, a synthetic model of a newly formed warm core ring, convection-stabilization, the role of light, the influence of convective overturn in adding nutrients to surface waters of warm core rings, and two major areas which require study.

A comparison of Argo nominal surface and near-surface temperature for validation of AMSR-E SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zenghong; Chen, Xingrong; Sun, Chaohui; Wu, Xiaofen; Lu, Shaolei

2017-05-01

Satellite SST (sea surface temperature) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) is compared with in situ temperature observations from Argo profiling floats over the global oceans to evaluate the advantages of Argo NST (near-surface temperature: water temperature less than 1 m from the surface). By comparing Argo nominal surface temperature ( 5 m) with its NST, a diurnal cycle caused by daytime warming and nighttime cooling was found, along with a maximum warming of 0.08±0.36°C during 14:00-15:00 local time. Further comparisons between Argo 5-m temperature/Argo NST and AMSR-E SST retrievals related to wind speed, columnar water vapor, and columnar cloud water indicate warming biases at low wind speed (<5 m/s) and columnar water vapor >28 mm during daytime. The warming tendency is more remarkable for AMSR-E SST/Argo 5-m temperature compared with AMSR-E SST/Argo NST, owing to the effect of diurnal warming. This effect of diurnal warming events should be excluded before validation for microwave SST retrievals. Both AMSR-E nighttime SST/Argo 5-m temperature and nighttime SST/Argo NST show generally good agreement, independent of wind speed and columnar water vapor. From our analysis, Argo NST data demonstrated their advantages for validation of satellite-retrieved SST.

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

El Nino Southern Oscillation and Tuna in the Western Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lehodey, P.; Bertignac, M.; Hampton, J.; Lewis, A.; Picaut, J.

1997-01-01

Nearly 70% of the world's annual tuna harvest, currently 3.2 million tonnes, comes from the Pacific Ocean. Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) dominate the catch. Although skipjack are distributed in the surface mixed layer throughout the equatorial and subtropical Pacific, catches are highest in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool, a region characterized by low primary productivity rates that has the warmest surface waters of the world's oceans. Assessments of tuna stocks indicate that recent western Pacific skipjack catches approaching one million tonnes annually are sustainable. The warm pool, which is fundamental to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Earth's climate in general, must therefore also provide a habitat capable of supporting this highly productive tuna population. Here we show that apparent spatial shifts in the skipjack population are linked to large zonal displacements of the warm pool that occur during ENSO events. This relationship can be used to predict (several months in advance) the region of highest skipjack abundance, within a fishing ground extending over 6,000 km along the Equator.

Midlatitude atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Nino. Part I. The north Pacific ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, M.A.

Atmosphere-ocean modeling experiments are used to investigate the formation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean during fall and winter of the El Nino year. Experiments in which the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) surface fields are used to force a mixed-layer ocean model in the North Pacific (no air-sea feedback) are compared to simulations in which the CCM and North Pacific Ocean model are coupled. Anomalies in the atmosphere and the North Pacific Ocean during El Nino are obtained from the difference between simulations with and without prescribed warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific.more » In both the forced and coupled experiments, the anomaly pattern resembles a composite of the actual SST anomaly field during El Nino: warm SSTs develop along the coast of North America and cold SSTs form in the central Pacific. In the coupled simulations, air-sea interaction results in a 25% to 50% reduction in the magnitude of the SST and mixed-layer depth anomalies, resulting in more realistic SST fields. Coupling also decreases the SST anomaly variance; as a result, the anomaly centers remain statistically significant even though the magnitude of the anomalies is reduced. Three additional sensitivity studies indicate that air-sea feedback and entrainment act to damp SST anomalies while Ekman pumping has a negligible effect on mixed-layer depth and SST anomalies in midatitudes.« less

Understanding Arctic surface temperature differences in reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Zhao, B.; Shuman, C. A.; Nowicki, S.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70°N-90°N) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70ÂdegN-90ÂdegN) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

2013-12-01

It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption in polar regions is more than compensated by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation. Relationship between global SSH trend over a decade and (A) local SSH change over a decade (m/m). (B) Global SST change over a decade (m/K) (C) Portion of decadal SST change correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (m/K) (D) Portion of decadal SST change not correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere.

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature projections.

Enhancement of phytoplankton chlorophyll by submesoscale frontal dynamics in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre.

PubMed

Liu, Xiao; Levine, Naomi M

2016-02-28

Subtropical gyres contribute significantly to global ocean productivity. As the climate warms, the strength of these gyres as a biological carbon pump is predicted to diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. We present results suggesting that the impact of submesoscale physics on phytoplankton in the oligotrophic ocean is substantial and may either compensate or exacerbate future changes in carbon cycling. A new statistical tool was developed to quantify surface patchiness from sea surface temperatures. Chlorophyll concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre were shown to be enhanced by submesoscale frontal dynamics with an average increase of 38% (maximum of 83%) during late winter. The magnitude of this enhancement is comparable to the observed decline in chlorophyll due to a warming of ~1.1°C. These results highlight the need for an improved understanding of fine-scale physical variability in order to predict the response of marine ecosystems to projected climate changes.

Enhancement of phytoplankton chlorophyll by submesoscale frontal dynamics in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Levine, Naomi M.

2016-02-01

Subtropical gyres contribute significantly to global ocean productivity. As the climate warms, the strength of these gyres as a biological carbon pump is predicted to diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. We present results suggesting that the impact of submesoscale physics on phytoplankton in the oligotrophic ocean is substantial and may either compensate or exacerbate future changes in carbon cycling. A new statistical tool was developed to quantify surface patchiness from sea surface temperatures. Chlorophyll concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre were shown to be enhanced by submesoscale frontal dynamics with an average increase of 38% (maximum of 83%) during late winter. The magnitude of this enhancement is comparable to the observed decline in chlorophyll due to a warming of ~1.1°C. These results highlight the need for an improved understanding of fine-scale physical variability in order to predict the response of marine ecosystems to projected climate changes.

Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-05-01

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

PubMed

Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto

2017-05-03

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris K.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2010-04-01

Understanding the phase relationship between climate changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is essential for our understanding of the dynamics of the Earth's climate system. In this paper we show that the 20th century de-trended Arctic and Antarctic temperatures vary in anti-phase seesaw pattern - when the Arctic warms the Antarctica cools and visa versa. This is the first time that a bi-polar seesaw pattern has been identified in the 20th century Arctic and Antarctic temperature records. The Arctic (Antarctic) de-trended temperatures are highly correlated (anti-correlated) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index suggesting the Atlantic Ocean as a possible link between the climate variability of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Recent accelerated warming of the Arctic results from a positive reinforcement of the linear warming trend (due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and other possible forcings) by the warming phase of the multidecadal climate variability (due to fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean circulation).

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

Tilted geostrophic convection in icy world oceans caused by the horizontal component of the planetary rotation vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, J. C.

2012-12-01

The Coriolis force provides dominant control over the motion of atmospheres and oceans, both on Earth and on many other worlds. At any point on a planet's surface, the planetary rotation vector has both a vertical component and a horizontal (north-south) component. We typically ignore the horizontal component, which is justified if vertical motions are hydrostatic and the fluid is relatively shallow. Neither of these conditions is true for hydrothermal convection within the thick ocean layers of Europa and other icy worlds. Using the MITGCM ocean model, we explore the behavior of buoyant hydrothermal plumes in a deep unstratified ocean, including both components of the planetary rotation vector. We find that warm water does not rise vertically: instead, it spirals along the axis of planetary rotation. Eddies form which are tilted with respect to the local vertical, but parallel to the rotation axis: turbulent exchange of heat between these canted eddies carries the warm water toward the surface. This is not an entirely new idea: however, the implications for icy worlds have not been previously discussed. We observe that when these tilted plumes heat the ice layer above the ocean, the heating "footprint" of these tilted plumes will be more circular near the pole, more ellipsoidal in the tropics. If surface features of the ice crust were created by plume heating, their shapes ought to show consistent latitude trends. Also, we observe that if warm fluid were totally constrained to move along the planetary rotation axis, geothermal heat generated in the icy world's interior could never reach the ice crust near the equator. (For Europa, the "forbidden zone" could extend as far as +/- 20-25° latitude.) In practice, we find that turbulent eddies do allow heat to move perpendicular to the rotation vector, so the "forbidden zone" is not a tight constraint; still, it may affect the overall heating pattern of icy world crusts. Snapshot of ascent of buoyant hydrothermal plume in Europa's ocean (Seafloor heat source = 4 GW; ocean depth = 100 km; rotation period = 3.55 days; latitude = 30° N). Left: elevation section through plume. Right: 3-d isosurface of constant temperature (1 microkelvin above ambient). Note alignment of geostrophic eddies along angular rotation axis.

Aquarius Whole Range Calibration: Celestial Sky, Ocean, and Land Targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dinnat, Emmanuel P.; Le Vine, David M.; Bindlish, Rajat; Piepmeier, Jeffrey R.; Brown, Shannon T.

2014-01-01

Aquarius is a spaceborne instrument that uses L-band radiometers to monitor sea surface salinity globally. Other applications of its data over land and the cryosphere are being developed. Combining its measurements with existing and upcoming L-band sensors will allow for long term studies. For that purpose, the radiometers calibration is critical. Aquarius measurements are currently calibrated over the oceans. They have been found too cold at the low end (celestial sky) of the brightness temperature scale, and too warm at the warm end (land and ice). We assess the impact of the antenna pattern model on the biases and propose a correction. We re-calibrate Aquarius measurements using the corrected antenna pattern and measurements over the Sky and oceans. The performances of the new calibration are evaluated using measurements over well instrument land sites.

Ice-Cliff Failure via Retrogressive Slumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Holland, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise from warming-induced ice-sheet shrinkage remain notably uncertain. Removal of most of an ice sheet by surface melting alone requires centuries to millennia. Oceanic warming may accelerate loss by removing buttressing ice shelves and thereby speeding flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, but, until recently, modeled timescales for major dynamic ice-sheet shrinkage were centuries or longer. Beyond certain thresholds, however, observations show that warming removes floating ice shelves, leaving grounded ice cliffs from which icebergs break off directly. Cliffs higher than some limit experience rapid structural failure. Recent parameterization of this process in a comprehensive ice-flow model produced much faster sea-level rise from future rapid warming than in previous modeling studies, through formation and retreat of tall ice cliffs. Fully physical representations of this process are not yet available, however. Here, we use modeling guided by terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland to show that cliffs will fail by slumping and trigger rapid retreat at a threshold height that, in crevassed ice with surface melting, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today, but may be roughly twice that (180-275 m) in mechanically-competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.

Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

PubMed

Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

2013-05-16

Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

TOPEX/El Niño Watch - La Niña Barely Has a Pulse, June 18, 1999

NASA Image and Video Library

1999-08-23

Lingering just a month ago in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the La Niña phenomenon, with its large volume of chilly water, barely has a pulse this month, according to new satellite data from NASA U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission. The data, taken during a 10-day cycle of data collection ending June 18, show that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming up and returning to normal (green) as La Niña all but vanishes. The warming trend is most apparent in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where only a few patches of cooler, low sea levels (seen in blue and purple) remain. The blue areas are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal, whereas the purple areas range from 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal. Like its counterpart, El Niño, a La Niña condition will influence global climate and weather until it has completely subsided. As summer begins in the northern hemisphere, lower-than-normal sea surface levels and cool ocean temperatures persist in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska and along the western coast of North America. In contrast, the trend is the opposite over most of the Pacific, where above-normal sea surface heights and warmer ocean temperatures (indicated by the red and white areas) appear to be increasing and dominating the overall Pacific Ocean. Red areas are about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal; white areas show the sea surface height is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 and 13 inches) above normal. Scientists are not ready to administer last rites to La Niña, though. In the last 12 months, the pool of unusually cold water in the Pacific has shrunk (warmed) several times before cooling (expanding) again. This summer's altimeter data will help them determine whether La Niña has truly dissipated or whether they will see another resurgence of cool water in the Pacific. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA01586

A remote-sensing/GIS application for analysis of sea surface temperature off the western coast of North America

EPA Science Inventory

Recent work reports a warming trend in Pacific Ocean temperatures over the last 50 years. Coastal regions along western North America are particularly sensitive to climatic change, an important indicator of which is sea surface temperature (SST). In situ SST measurements (typica...

Sensitivity of Surface Temperature to Oceanic Forcing via q-Flux Green’s Function Experiments. Part I: Linear Response Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Lu, Jian; Garuba, Oluwayemi

This paper explores the use of linear response function (LRF) to relate the mean sea surface temperature (SST) response to prescribed ocean heat convergence (q-flux) forcings. Two methods for constructing the LRF based on the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) and Green’s function (GRF) are examined. A 900-year preindustrial simulation from the Community Earth System Model with a slab ocean (CESM-SOM) is used to estimate the LRF using FDT. For GRF, 106 pairs of CESM-SOM simulations with warm and cold q-flux patches are performed. FDT is found to have skill in estimating the SST response to a q-flux forcing when the localmore » SST response is strong, but it fails in inverse estimation of the q-flux forcing for a given SST pattern. In contrast, GRF is shown to be reasonably accurate in estimating both SST response and q-flux forcing. Possible degradation in FDT may be attributed to insufficient data sampling, significant departures of the SST data from Gaussian, and the non-normality of the constructed operator. The accurately estimated GRF-based LRF is used to (i) generate a global surface temperature sensitivity map that shows the q-flux forcing in higher latitudes to be three to four times more effective than in low latitudes in producing global surface warming; (ii) identify the most excitable SST mode (neutral vector) resembling Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; and (iii) estimate a time-invariant q-flux forcing needed for maintaining the GHG-induced SST warming pattern. The GRF experiments will be used to construct LRF for other variables to further explore climate sensitivities and feedbacks.« less

Ichthyoplankton Time Series: A Potential Ocean Observing Network to Provide Indicators of Climate Impacts on Fish Communities along the West Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koslow, J. A.; Brodeur, R.; Duffy-Anderson, J. T.; Perry, I.; jimenez Rosenberg, S.; Aceves, G.

2016-02-01

Ichthyoplankton time series available from the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and California Current (Oregon to Baja California) provide a potential ocean observing network to assess climate impacts on fish communities along the west coast of North America. Larval fish abundance reflects spawning stock biomass, so these data sets provide indicators of the status of a broad range of exploited and unexploited fish populations. Analyses to date have focused on individual time series, which generally exhibit significant change in relation to climate. Off California, a suite of 24 midwater fish taxa have declined > 60%, correlated with declining midwater oxygen concentrations, and overall larval fish abundance has declined 72% since 1969, a trend based on the decline of predominantly cool-water affinity taxa in response to warming ocean temperatures. Off Oregon, there were dramatic differences in community structure and abundance of larval fishes between warm and cool ocean conditions. Midwater deoxygenation and warming sea surface temperature trends are predicted to continue as a result of global climate change. US, Canadian, and Mexican fishery scientists are now collaborating in a virtual ocean observing network to synthesize available ichthyoplankton time series and compare patterns of change in relation to climate. This will provide regional indicators of populations and groups of taxa sensitive to warming, deoxygenation and potentially other stressors, establish the relevant scales of coherence among sub-regions and across Large Marine Ecosystems, and provide the basis for predicting future climate change impacts on these ecosystems.

The reduction in the biomass of cyanobacterial N2 fixer and the biological pump in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Kim, Dongseon; Jeong, Jin-Hyun; Kim, Tae-Wook; Noh, Jae Hoon; Kim, Hyung Jeek; Choi, Dong Han; Kim, Eung; Jeon, Dongchull

2017-01-01

The comparison of sediment trap data with physical and biogeochemical variables in the surface water column of the Tropical Northwestern Pacific Ocean (TNWPO) indicated that the magnitude of the springtime biological pump has reduced with time due to a corresponding decrease in the biomass of cyanobacterial N2 fixer. The decrease in the biomass of N2 fixer likely resulted from a reduction in phosphate concentrations in response to surface water warming and consequent shoaling of the mixed layer depth during the study period (2009−2014). The same reduction in biological pump was also observed during summer. However, the cause of the summer reduction remains uncertain and is worth assessing in future studies. Our findings have major implications for predicting future trends of the biological pump in the TNWPO, where significant warming has occurred. PMID:28155909

Mass coral mortality under local amplification of 2 °C ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decarlo, Thomas M.; Cohen, Anne L.; Wong, George T. F.; Davis, Kristen A.; Lohmann, Pat; Soong, Keryea

2017-03-01

A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Niño. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef “Bleaching Alert” alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale anomaly. Water temperatures on the reef flat, normally indistinguishable from open-ocean SST, exceeded 6 °C above normal summertime levels. Mass coral bleaching quickly ensued, killing 40% of the resident coral community in an event unprecedented in at least the past 40 years. Our findings highlight the risks of 2 °C ocean warming to coral reef ecosystems when global and local processes align to drive intense heating, with devastating consequences.

Influence of Coastal Upwelling on SST Trends along the South Coast of Java

PubMed Central

Varela, R.; Santos, F.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.; Álvarez, I.; Costoya, X.; Días, J. M.

2016-01-01

The south coast of Java has warmed at a much lower rate than adjacent ocean locations over the last three decades (1982–2015). This behavior can be observed during the upwelling season (July-October) and it is especially patent in August and September when upwelling attains the highest values. Although different warming rates (ocean-coast) had been previously observed in other areas around the world, this behavior was always linked to situations where upwelling increased or remained unchanged. South Java warming is observed at ocean locations and cooling near shore but under a scenario of decreasing upwelling (~30% in some cases). The origin of coastal cooling is due to changes in the vertical structure of the water column. A vein of subsurface water, which has cooled at a rate higher than 0.3°C per decade, is observed to enter from the northwestern part of the study area following the South Java Current. This water only manifests at surface near coast, where it is pumped up by coastal upwelling. PMID:27606676

Influence of Transient Atmospheric Circulation on the Surface Heating of the Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Chan, Pui-King

2003-01-01

Analyses of data on clouds, winds, and surface heat fluxes show that the transient behavior of basin-wide large-scale circulation has a significant influence on the warm pool sea surface temperature (SST). Trade winds converge to regions of the highest SST in the equatorial western Pacific. These regions have the largest cloud cover and smallest wind speed. Both surface solar heating and evaporative cooling are weak. The reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds exceeds the reduced solar heating due to enhanced cloudiness. The result is a maximum surface heating in the strong convective and high SST regions. Data also show that the maximum surface heating in strong convective regions is interrupted by transient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Due to the seasonal variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, trade winds and clouds also experience seasonal variations. Regions of high SST and low-level convergence follow the Sun, where the surface heating is a maximum. As the Sun moves away from a convective region, the strong trade winds set in, and the evaporative cooling enhances, resulting in a net cooling of the surface. During an El Nino, the maximum SST and convective region shifts eastward from the maritime continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Following the eastward shift of the maximum SST, the region of maximum cloudiness and surface heating also shift eastward. As the atmospheric and oceanic circulation returns to normal situations, the trade winds increase and the surface heating decreases. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds is one of the major factors that modulate the SST distribution of the Pacific warm pool.

Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.; Sun, Xiaoming

2018-03-01

Distributions of ocean mixed layer temperature trends and trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere differ, indicating the important role of the transport of heat within the ocean for determining temperature trends. Annual-mean, linear trends in the components of the tropical ocean mixed layer heat budget for 1980-2015 are diagnosed in 4 ocean reanalyses to improve our physical understanding of multidecadal-scale SST trends. The well-known temperature trend in the tropical Pacific, with cooling in the east and warming in the west, is reproduced in each reanalysis with high statistical significance. Cooling in the east is associated with negative trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere and enhanced equatorial upwelling related to a strengthening of the subtropical cells. Negative trends in the net heat flux also occur in the western tropical Pacific, but advective warming associated with a strengthening and shoaling of the equatorial undercurrent overwhelms these negative trends. The strengthening of the equatorial undercurrent is consistent with enhanced easterly wind stress, which is applied to the ocean reanalyses, and differential sea level trends that enhance the negative zonal height gradient across the Pacific. The Pacific North Equatorial countercurrent is also strengthening in all 4 reanalyses in association with a strengthening of the sea level trough at 10°N in the central and eastern Pacific. All 4 ocean reanalyses produce warming of 0.1-0.3 K/decade in the North Atlantic with statistical significance levels ranging from below 90-99%. The Atlantic is similar to the Pacific in having the equatorial undercurrent strengthening, but indications of shoaling are less consistent in the reanalyses and the North Equatorial Countercurrent in the Atlantic is not strengthening. Large-scale ocean mixed layer warming trends in the Indian Ocean in the reanalyses are interrupted by some regional cooling close to the equator. Net surface heat flux trends are mostly negative, indicating increasing heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere. Wind stress trends applied to the ocean reanalyses are weak, but trends in the Indian Ocean equatorial undercurrent are strong. Since the Indian monsoon climate introduces strong seasonality, the annual analysis may not be adequate for studying physical processes in this ocean basin.

Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B.; England, Matthew H.; Collins, Mat

2018-06-01

Pacific trade winds have displayed unprecedented strengthening in recent decades1. This strengthening has been associated with east Pacific sea surface cooling2 and the early twenty-first-century slowdown in global surface warming2,3, amongst a host of other substantial impacts4-9. Although some climate models produce the timing of these recently observed trends10, they all fail to produce the trend magnitude2,11,12. This may in part be related to the apparent model underrepresentation of low-frequency Pacific Ocean variability and decadal wind trends2,11-13 or be due to a misrepresentation of a forced response1,14-16 or a combination of both. An increasingly prominent connection between the Pacific and Atlantic basins has been identified as a key driver of this strengthening of the Pacific trade winds12,17-20. Here we use targeted climate model experiments to show that combining the recent Atlantic warming trend with the typical climate model bias leads to a substantially underestimated response for the Pacific Ocean wind and surface temperature. The underestimation largely stems from a reduction and eastward shift of the atmospheric heating response to the tropical Atlantic warming trend. This result suggests that the recent Pacific trends and model decadal variability may be better captured by models with improved mean-state climatologies.

Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

2018-04-01

A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

Alkenone based constraints of the hydrological development in the mozambique channel over the last 39, 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasper, Sebastian; Castañeda, Isla; Tjallingii, Rik; Brummer, Geert-Jan; Schneider, Ralph; Sininnghe-Damsté, Jaap S.; Schouten, Stefan; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.

2014-05-01

Indian Ocean surface circulation through the Mozambique Channel forms the upstream source for the Agulhas Current, which is the main mechanism for transporting warm and salty waters from the Indian Ocean into the Atlantic via the Agulhas Leakage (Lutjeharms 2006). However, the Agulhas Leakage was reduced substantially during glacial times due to the northward migration of the subtropical fronts and shifts in the wind fields, and resulted in accumulation of warm and saline waters in the Southwest Indian Ocean (Peeters et al., 2004). A better understanding of the interactions between sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Agulhas source region are fundamental for reconstructing past changes in this surface warm water route of the global conveyor and ocean-continent climate linkage with respect to South Africa. Here we present a record of the stable hydrogen isotope composition of the combined di- and tri- unsaturated alkenones (Dalkenone) that might relate to past SSS variations. We compare the variations of the Dalkenone with UK'37 SST records from sediment core 64PE304-80 located in the Mozambique Channel off the Zambezi River mouth. To estimate the influence of freshwater input at this site the alkenone hydrogen isotope record was compared to BIT Index values and Ca/Ti ratios reflecting the input of soil organic matter and lithogenic material on the core site, respectively. During the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the onset of Heinrich event 1 (HE1) at ~18,000 years, Dalkenone and UK'37 are positively correlated. The Dalkenone is more enriched during HE1 corresponding with high BIT values, increased Ca/Ti ratios, and relatively cold SST values. After ~16 ka, Dalkenone values decrease when UK'37 SST increases throughout the early Holocene, suggesting an increase of the continental precipitation and runoff during periods of increased SST. This period can be related to postglacial warming of the tropical ocean or due to a latitudinal shift in the ITCZ over Africa (e.g. Schefuss et al., 2011). Alternatively, the change in the paleosalinity signal may result from the change in the position of the Zambezi River and transport of the river plume by coastal currents and relative to the core location as a result of eustatic sea level rise. For the late Holocene the Dalkenone record shows relatively stable conditions that are interrupted by an excursion to more positive values from approximately 5000 to 1600 years BP. This excursion could be explained by variations of freshwater input related to the Zambezi run off.

Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

2018-04-01

Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect. The anticyclonic circulation anomaly intensifies the southwesterly flow that transfers more moisture from the Bay of Bengal to East Asia and considerably increases the winter precipitation over the southern East Asia. This is strongly supported by the observational fact that there has been a significant interdecadal increase of winter precipitation over the southern China since the end of the 1970s.

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang;

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

2018-05-01

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

Variability and trends in surface seawater pCO2 and CO2 flux in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A. J.; Wanninkhof, R.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.; Cronin, M. F.; Weller, R. A.

2017-06-01

Variability and change in the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) have implications for future climate and ocean acidification. Measurements of surface seawater CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and wind speed from moored platforms are used to calculate high-resolution CO2 flux time series. Here we use the moored CO2 fluxes to examine variability and its drivers over a range of time scales at four locations in the Pacific Ocean. There are significant surface seawater pCO2, salinity, and wind speed trends in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, especially during winter and spring, which reduce CO2 uptake over the 10 year record of this study. Starting in late 2013, elevated seawater pCO2 values driven by warm anomalies cause this region to be a net annual CO2 source for the first time in the observational record, demonstrating how climate forcing can influence the timing of an ocean region shift from CO2 sink to source.

Beyond the bipolar seesaw: Toward a process understanding of interhemispheric coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, Joel B.; Jochum, Markus; Buizert, Christo; He, Feng; Barker, Stephen; Rasmussen, Sune O.

2018-07-01

The thermal bipolar ocean seesaw hypothesis was advanced by Stocker and Johnsen (2003) as the 'simplest possible thermodynamic model' to explain the time relationship between Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) events. In this review we combine palaeoclimate observations, theory and general circulation model experiments to advance from the conceptual model toward a process understanding of interhemispheric coupling and the forcing of AIM events. We present four main results: (1) Changes in Atlantic heat transport invoked by the thermal seesaw are partially compensated by opposing changes in heat transport by the global atmosphere and Pacific Ocean. This compensation is an integral part of interhemispheric coupling, with a major influence on the global pattern of climate anomalies. (2) We support the role of a heat reservoir in interhemispheric coupling but argue that its location is the global interior ocean to the north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), not the commonly assumed Southern Ocean. (3) Energy budget analysis indicates that the process driving Antarctic warming during AIM events is an increase in poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport following sea ice retreat and surface warming over the Southern Ocean. (4) The Antarctic sea ice retreat is itself driven by eddy-heat fluxes across the ACC, amplified by sea-ice-albedo feedbacks. The lag of Antarctic warming after AMOC collapse reflects the time required for heat to accumulate in the ocean interior north of the ACC (predominantly the upper 1500 m), before it can be mixed across this dynamic barrier by eddies.

More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Weller, Evan; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-01-01

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an extreme ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides with an anomalously strong north-minus-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Such shifts lead to severe droughts over the maritime continent and surrounding islands but also devastating floods in southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Understanding future changes of the ITCZ is therefore of major scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we find a more-than-doubling in the frequency of extreme ITCZ events under greenhouse warming, estimated from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that are able to simulate such events. The increase is due to a mean state change with an enhanced north-minus-south SST gradient and a weakened Walker Circulation, facilitating smaller perturbations to shift the ITCZ northwards. PMID:25124737

A Century of Stability of Avannarleq and Kujalleq Glaciers, West Greenland, Explained Using High-Resolution Airborne Gravity and Other Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, L.; Rignot, E.; Mouginot, J.; Millan, R.

2018-04-01

The evolution of Greenland glaciers in a warming climate depends on their depth below sea level, flow speed, surface melt, and ocean-induced undercutting at the calving front. We present an innovative mapping of bed topography in the frontal regions of Sermeq Avannarleq and Kujalleq, two major glaciers flowing into the ice-choked Torssukatak Fjord, central west Greenland. The mapping combines a mass conservation algorithm inland, multibeam echo sounding data in the fjord, and high-resolution airborne gravity data at the ice-ocean transition where other approaches have traditionally failed. We obtain a reliable, precision (±40 m) solution for bed topography across the ice-ocean boundary. The results reveal a 700 m deep fjord that abruptly ends on a 100-300 m deep sill along the calving fronts. The shallow sills explain the presence of stranded icebergs, the resilience of the glaciers to ocean-induced undercutting by warm Atlantic water, and their remarkable stability over the past century.

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

PubMed Central

Zeebe, Richard E.

2013-01-01

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000–165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Zeebe, Richard E

2013-08-20

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Rita Roars Through a Warm Gulf September 22, 2005

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-09-22

This sea surface height map of the Gulf of Mexico, with the Florida peninsula on the right and the Texas-Mexico Gulf Coast on the left, is based on altimeter data from four satellites including NASA’s Topex/Poseidon and Jason. Red indicates a strong circulation of much warmer waters, which can feed energy to a hurricane. This area stands 35 to 60 centimeters (about 13 to 23 inches) higher than the surrounding waters of the Gulf. The actual track of a hurricane is primarily dependent upon steering winds, which are forecasted through the use of atmospheric models. However, the interaction of the hurricane with the upper ocean is the primary source of energy for the storm. Hurricane intensity is therefore greatly affected by the upper ocean temperature structure and can exhibit explosive growth over warm ocean currents and eddies. Eddies are currents of water that run contrary to the direction of the main current. According to the forecasted track through the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Rita will continue crossing the warm waters of a Gulf of Mexico circulation feature called the Loop Current and then pass near a warm-water eddy called the Eddy Vortex, located in the north central Gulf, south of Louisiana. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA06427

The influence of vegetation-atmosphere-ocean interaction on climate during the mid-holocene

PubMed

Ganopolski; Kubatzki; Claussen; Brovkin; Petoukhov

1998-06-19

Simulations with a synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model show that changes in vegetation cover during the mid-Holocene, some 6000 years ago, modify and amplify the climate system response to an enhanced seasonal cycle of solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere both directly (primarily through the changes in surface albedo) and indirectly (through changes in oceanic temperature, sea-ice cover, and oceanic circulation). The model results indicate strong synergistic effects of changes in vegetation cover, ocean temperature, and sea ice at boreal latitudes, but in the subtropics, the atmosphere-vegetation feedback is most important. Moreover, a reduction of the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean leads to a warming of the Southern Hemisphere.

La Niña Exit Leaves Climate Forecasts in Limbo

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-07-06

The latest image of Pacific Ocean sea surface heights from the NASA OSTIM/Jason-2 oceanography satellite, on June 11, 2010, shows that Pacific has switched from warm red to cold blue during the last few months.

An atmosphere-ocean GCM modelling study of the climate response to changing Arctic seaways in the early Cenozoic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

2008-12-01

The report of fossil Azolla (a freshwater aquatic fern) in sediments from the Lomonosov Ridge suggests low salinity conditions occurred in the Arctic Ocean in the early Eocene. Restricted passages between the Arctic Ocean and the surrounding oceans are hypothesized to have caused this Arctic freshening. We investigate this scenario using a water-isotope enabled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with Eocene boundary conditions including 4xCO2, 7xCH4, altered bathymetry and topography, and an estimated distribution of Eocene vegetational types. In one experiment, oceanic exchange between the Arctic Ocean and other ocean basins was restricted to two shallow (~250 m) seaways, one in the North Atlantic, the Greenland-Norwegian seaway, and the second connecting the Arctic Ocean with the Tethys Ocean, the Turgai Straits. In the restricted configuration, the Greenland-Norwegian seaway was closed and exchange through the Turgai Straits was limited to a depth of ~60 m. The simulations suggest that the severe restriction of Arctic seaways in the early Eocene may have been sufficient to freshen Arctic Ocean surface waters, conducive to Azolla blooms. When exchange with the Arctic Ocean is limited, salinities in the upper several hundred meters of the water column decrease by ~10 psu. In some regions, surface salinity is within 2-3 psu of the reported maximum modern conditions tolerated by Azolla (~5 psu). In the restricted scenario, salt is stored preferentially in the North Atlantic and Tethys oceans, resulting in enhanced meridional overturning, increased poleward heat transport in the North Atlantic western boundary current, and warming of surface and intermediate waters in the North Atlantic by several degrees. Increased sensible and latent heat fluxes from the North Atlantic Ocean, combined with a reduction in cloud albedo, also lead to an increase in surface air temperature of over much of North America, Greenland and Eurasia. Our work is consistent with previous findings on the potential influence of Arctic gateways on ocean overturning and also suggests that Northern Hemisphere climate, particularly in the North Atlantic, was very sensitive to changes in Arctic seaways. This result is of particular significance when considered in the context of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Volcanic activity prior to the PETM may have been responsible for the formation of a sub-aerial barrier in the North Atlantic, and consequently may have driven warming of intermediate waters sufficient to destabilize methane clathrates. Evidence for freshening of Arctic ocean waters prior to the PETM would support this hypothesis.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview

PubMed Central

Shepherd, John G.; Brewer, Peter G.; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’. PMID:28784707

Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview.

PubMed

Shepherd, John G; Brewer, Peter G; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J

2017-09-13

Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, John G.; Brewer, Peter G.; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J.

2017-08-01

Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Oceans, Ice Shells, and Life on Europa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenk, Paul

2002-01-01

The four large satellites of Jupiter are famous for their planet-like diversity and complexity, but none more so than ice-covered Europa. Since the provocative Voyager images of Europa in 1979, evidence has been mounting that a vast liquid water ocean may lurk beneath the moon's icy surface. Europa has since been the target of increasing and sometimes reckless speculation regarding the possibility that giant squid and other creatures may be swimming its purported cold, dark ocean. No wonder Europa tops everyone's list for future exploration in the outer solar system (after the very first reconnaissance of Pluto and the Kuiper belt, of course). Europa may be the smallest of the Galilean moons (so-called because they were discovered by Galileo Galilei in the early 17th century) but more than makes up for its diminutive size with a crazed, alien landscape. The surface is covered with ridges hundreds of meters high, domes tens of kilometers across, and large areas of broken and disrupted crust called chaos. Some of the geologic features seen on Europa resemble ice rafts floating in polar seas here on Earth-reinforcing the idea that an ice shell is floating over an ocean on this Moon-size satellite. However, such features do not prove that an ocean exists or ever did. Warm ice is unusually soft and will flow under its own weight. If the ice shell is thick enough, the warm bottom of the shell will flow, as do terrestrial glaciers. This could produce all the observed surface features on Europa through a variety of processes, the most important of which is convection. (Convection is the vertical overturn of a layer due to heating or density differences-think of porridge or sauce boiling on the stove.) Rising blobs from the base of the crust would then create the oval domes dotting Europa's surface. The strongest evidence for a hidden ocean beneath Europa's surface comes from the Galileo spacecraft's onboard magnetometer, which detected fluctuations in Jupiter's magnetic field consistent with a conductor inside Europa. The most likely conductor: a somewhat salty ocean.

The Response of the Ocean Thermal Skin Layer to Variations in Incident Infrared Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Elizabeth W.; Minnett, Peter J.

2018-04-01

Ocean warming trends are observed and coincide with the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulting from human activities. At the ocean surface, most of the incoming infrared (IR) radiation is absorbed within the top micrometers of the ocean's surface where the thermal skin layer (TSL) exists. Thus, the incident IR radiation does not directly heat the upper few meters of the ocean. This paper investigates the physical mechanism between the absorption of IR radiation and its effect on heat transfer at the air-sea boundary. The hypothesis is that given the heat lost through the air-sea interface is controlled by the TSL, the TSL adjusts in response to variations in incident IR radiation to maintain the surface heat loss. This modulates the flow of heat from below and hence controls upper ocean heat content. This hypothesis is tested using the increase in incoming longwave radiation from clouds and analyzing vertical temperature profiles in the TSL retrieved from sea-surface emission spectra. The additional energy from the absorption of increasing IR radiation adjusts the curvature of the TSL such that the upward conduction of heat from the bulk of the ocean into the TSL is reduced. The additional energy absorbed within the TSL supports more of the surface heat loss. Thus, more heat beneath the TSL is retained leading to the observed increase in upper ocean heat content.

Differential heating in the Indian Ocean differentially modulates precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2016-01-01

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature dynamics play a prominent role in Asian summer monsoon variability. Two interactive climate modes of the Indo-Pacific—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode—modulate the amount of precipitation over India, in addition to precipitation over Africa, Indonesia, and Australia. However, this modulation is not spatially uniform. The precipitation in southern India is strongly forced by the Indian Ocean dipole mode and ENSO. In contrast, across northern India, encompassing the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, the climate mode influence on precipitation is much less. Understanding the forcing of precipitation in these river basins is vital for food security and ecosystem services for over half a billion people. Using 28 years of remote sensing observations, we demonstrate that (i) the tropical west-east differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Ganges precipitation and (ii) the north-south differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Brahmaputra precipitation. The El Niño phase induces warming in the warm pool of the Indian Ocean and exerts more influence on Ganges precipitation than Brahmaputra precipitation. The analyses indicate that both the magnitude and position of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean are important drivers for precipitation dynamics that can be effectively summarized using two new indices, one tuned for each basin. These new indices have the potential to aid forecasting of drought and flooding, to contextualize land cover and land use change, and to assess the regional impacts of climate change.

Using a Very Large Ensemble to Examine the Role of the Ocean in Recent Warming Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, S. N.; Millar, R.; Otto, A.; Yamazaki, K.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Results from a very large (~10,000 member) perturbed physics and perturbed initial condition ensemble are presented for the period 1980 to present. A set of model versions that can shadow recent surface and upper ocean observations are identified and the range of uncertainty in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) assessed. This experiment uses the Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), a coupled model with fully dynamic atmosphere and ocean components as part of the climateprediction.net distributive computing project. Parameters are selected so that the model has good top of atmosphere radiative balance and simulations are run without flux adjustments that "nudge" the climate towards a realistic state, but have an adverse effect on important ocean processes. This ensemble provides scientific insights on the possible role of the AMOC, among other factors, in climate trends, or lack thereof, over the past 20 years. This ensemble is also used to explore how the occurrence of hiatus events of different durations varies for models with different transient climate response (TCR). We show that models with a higher TCR are less likely to produce a 15-year warming hiatus in global surface temperature than those with a lower TCR.

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C.; Lyon, B.; Ricciardulli, L.

2012-01-01

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

PubMed Central

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Emanuel, Kerry A.

2016-01-01

Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes. PMID:27886199

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Here, super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall inmore » places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ~53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.« less

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons.

PubMed

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R; Leung, L Ruby; Emanuel, Kerry A

2016-11-25

Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961-2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

DOE PAGES

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-11-25

Here, super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall inmore » places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ~53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.« less

Causes of Upper-Ocean Temperature Anomalies in the Tropical North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugg, A.; Foltz, G. R.; Perez, R. C.

2016-02-01

Hurricane activity and regional rainfall are strongly impacted by upper ocean conditions in the tropical North Atlantic, defined as the region between the equator and 20°N. A previous study analyzed a strong cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly that developed in this region during early 2009 and was recorded by the Pilot Research Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) moored buoy at 4°N, 23°W (Foltz et al. 2012). The same mooring shows a similar cold anomaly in the spring of 2015 as well as a strong warm anomaly in 2010, offering the opportunity for a more comprehensive analysis of the causes of these events. In this study we examine the main causes of the observed temperature anomalies between 1998 and 2015. Basin-scale conditions during these events are analyzed using satellite SST, wind, and rain data, as well as temperature and salinity profiles from the NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System. A more detailed analysis is conducted using ten years of direct measurements from the PIRATA mooring at 4°N, 23°W. Results show that the cooling and warming anomalies were caused primarily by wind-driven changes in surface evaporative cooling, mixed layer depth, and upper-ocean vertical velocity. Anomalies in surface solar radiation acted to damp the wind-driven SST anomalies in the latitude bands of the ITCZ (3°-8°N). Basin-scale analyses also suggest a strong connection between the observed SST anomalies and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, a well-known pattern of SST and surface wind anomalies spanning the tropical Atlantic.

At quadrennial geophysics fest, earth scientists think globally

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1995-07-28

This article focuses on two areas of current research interest from the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics meeting in July 1995. The first is the possible long and unlikely seeming change of connections. Linked are the warm surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere at the midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere and the icy stratosphere over Antarctica where the warming of the sea surface 15 years ago may have set the stage for the Antarctic ozone hole. The second major research research reviewed concerned increases in ultraviolet light. Surface radiation in the DNA-damaging region of the spectrum ismore » increasing by as much as 12% per decade at high latitudes.« less

"SPURS" in the North Atlantic Salinity Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Raymond

2014-05-01

The North Atlantic Salinity Maximum is the world's saltiest open ocean salinity maximum and was the focus of the recent Salinity Processes Upper-ocean Regional Study (SPURS) program. SPURS was a joint venture between US, French, Irish, and Spanish investigators. Three US and two EU cruises were involved from August, 1012 - October, 2013 as well as surface moorings, glider, drifter and float deployments. Shipboard operations included underway meteorological and oceanic data, hydrographic surveys and turbulence profiling. The goal is to improve our understanding of how the salinity maximum is maintained and how it may be changing. It is formed by an excess of evaporation over precipitation and the wind-driven convergence of the subtropical gyre. Such salty areas are getting saltier with global warming (a record high SSS was observed in SPURS) and it is imperative to determine the relative roles of surface water fluxes and oceanic processes in such trends. The combination of accurate surface flux estimates with new assessments of vertical and horizontal mixing in the ocean will help elucidate the utility of ocean salinity in quantifying the changing global water cycle.

The impact of glacier geometry on meltwater plume structure and submarine melt in Greenland fjords

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, D.; Sutherland, D. A.; Hudson, B.; Moon, T.; Catania, G. A.; Shroyer, E. L.; Nash, J. D.; Bartholomaus, T. C.; Felikson, D.; Stearns, L. A.; Noël, B. P. Y.; Broeke, M. R.

2016-09-01

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet often drains subglacially into fjords, driving upwelling plumes at glacier termini. Ocean models and observations of submarine termini suggest that plumes enhance melt and undercutting, leading to calving and potential glacier destabilization. Here we systematically evaluate how simulated plume structure and submarine melt during summer months depends on realistic ranges of subglacial discharge, glacier depth, and ocean stratification from 12 Greenland fjords. Our results show that grounding line depth is a strong control on plume-induced submarine melt: deep glaciers produce warm, salty subsurface plumes that undercut termini, and shallow glaciers produce cold, fresh surface-trapped plumes that can overcut termini. Due to sustained upwelling velocities, plumes in cold, shallow fjords can induce equivalent depth-averaged melt rates compared to warm, deep fjords. These results detail a direct ocean-ice feedback that can affect the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Känel, Lukas; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Gruber, Nicolas

2017-08-01

A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998-2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30-member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal-scale variability.

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Evaluation of NASA GEOS-ADAS Modeled Diurnal Warming Through Comparisons to SEVIRI and AMSR2 SST Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.

2018-02-01

An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.

Bay of Bengal Exhibits Warming Trend During the Younger Dryas: Implications of AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panmei, Champoungam; Divakar Naidu, Pothuri; Mohtadi, Mahyar

2017-12-01

A sharp decline in temperature during the Younger Dryas (YD) preceding the current warmer Holocene is well documented in climate archives from the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Although the magnitude of YD cooling varied spatially, the response of YD cooling was well documented in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans but not in the Indian Ocean. Here we investigate whether the modern remote forcing of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) by Northern Hemisphere climate changes holds true for events such as the YD. Our SST reconstruction from the western Bay of Bengal exhibits an overall warming of ˜1.8°C during the YD. We further compared our data with other existing Mg/Ca-based SST records from the Northern Indian Ocean and found no significant negative SST anomalies in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal compared to pre- and post-YD, suggesting that no apparent cooling occurred during the YD in the Northern Indian Ocean. In contrast, most part of the YD exhibits positive SST anomalies in the Northern Indian Ocean that coincide with the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during this period.

Coral-Derived Western Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tianran; Cobb, Kim M.; Roff, George; Zhao, Jianxin; Yang, Hongqiang; Hu, Minhang; Zhao, Kuan

2018-04-01

Reconstructions of ocean temperatures prior to the industrial era serve to constrain natural climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, yet relatively few such observations are available from the west Pacific Warm Pool. Here we present multiple coral-based sea surface temperature reconstructions from Yongle Atoll, in the South China Sea over the last 1,250 years (762-2013 Common Era [CE]). Reconstructed coral Sr/Ca-sea surface temperatures indicate that the "Little Ice Age (1711-1817 CE)" period was 0.7°C cooler than the "Medieval Climate Anomaly (913-1132 CE)" and that late 20th century warming of the western Pacific is likely unprecedented over the past millennium. Our findings suggest that the Western Pacific Warm Pool may have expanded (contracted) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (Little Ice Age), leading to a strengthening (weakening) of the Asian summer monsoon, as recorded in Chinese stalagmites.

The Ocean-Atmosphere Hydrothermohaline Conveyor Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döös, Kristofer; Kjellsson, Joakim; Zika, Jan; Laliberté, Frédéric; Brodeau, Laurent

2015-04-01

The ocean thermohaline circulation is linked to the hydrothermal circulation of the atmosphere. The ocean thermohaline circulation is expressed in potential temperature-salinity space and comprises a tropical upper-ocean circulation, a global conveyor belt cell and an Antarctic Bottom Water cell. The atmospheric hydrothermal circulation in a potential temperature-specific humidity space unifies the tropical Hadley and Walker cells as well as the midlatitude eddies into a single, global circulation. Superimposed, these thermohaline and hydrothermal stream functions reveal the possibility of a close connection between some parts of the water and air mass conversions. The exchange of heat and fresh water through the sea surface (precipiation-evaporation) and incoming solar radiation act to make near-surface air warm and moist while making surface water warmer and saltier as both air and water travel towards the Equator. In the tropics, air masses can undergo moist convection releasing latent heat by forming precipitation, thus acting to make warm surface water fresher. We propose that the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship for moist near-surface air acts like a lower bound for the atmospheric hydrothermal cell and an upper bound for the ocean thermohaline Conveyor-Belt cell. The analysis is made by combining and merging the overturning circulation of the ocean and atmosphere by relating the salinity of the ocean to the humidity of the atmosphere, where we set the heat and freshwater transports equal in the two stream functions By using simulations integrated with our Climate-Earth system model EC-Earth, we intend to produce the "hydrothermohaline" stream function of the coupled ocean-atmosphere overturning circulation in one single picture. We explore how the oceanic thermohaline Conveyor Belt can be linked to the global atmospheric hydrothermal circulation and if the water and air mass conversions in humidity-temperature-salinity space can be related and linked to each other along a "line" corresponding to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. A geographical description of how and where this occurs together with this new hydrothermohaline stream function will be searched for. The net heat and freshwater transport of the ocean and atmosphere can aslo be calculated from the thermohaline and hydrothermal stream functions. The heat transport across isohumes in the atmosphere and isohalines in the ocean as well as the freshwater transport across isotherms in both the atmosphere and ocean are computed. The maximum heat transport is about 16 PW in the atmosphere, while that of the ocean is just about 1 PW. The freshwater transport across isotherms in the atmosphere and ocean are shown to be tightly connected with a net maximum freshwater transport of 4 SV in the atmosphere and 2 Sv in the ocean.

Physical Mechanism of the Surface Air Temperature Variability in Korea and Near Seven-Day Oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Roh, J.

2009-12-01

The first three principal modes of wintertime surface temperature variability in Seoul, Korea (126.59°E, 37.33°N) are extracted from the 1979-2008 observed records via cyclostationary EOF (CSEOF) analysis. Then, physically consistent patterns of several key physical variables over East Asia (97.5°-152.5°E×22.5°-72.5°N) are derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to understand the physical and dynamical mechanisms of the derived CSEOF modes. The first mode represents the seasonal cycle, the principle physical mechanism of which is associated with the continent/ocean sea level pressure contrast. The second mode mainly describes overall wintertime warming or cooling. The third mode depicts subseasonal fluctuations of surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies to the west of Korea (eastern China) and those with an opposite sign to the east of Korea (Japan) are a major physical mechanism both for the second mode and the third mode. These sea level pressure anomalies with opposite signs alter the amount of warm air to the south of Korea, which, in turn, varies the surface temperature in Korea. The PC time series of the seasonal cycle is significantly correlated with the East Asian winter monsoon index and exhibits a conspicuous downward trend. The PC time series of the second mode exhibits a positive trend. These trends imply that the wintertime surface temperature in Korea has increased and the seasonal cycle has weakened gradually in the past 30 years; the sign of greenhouse warming is clear in both PC time series. The seasonal cycle has decreased since the impact of warming as reflected in the sea level pressure change is much stronger over the continent than over the ocean; greater sea level pressure decrease over the continent than over the ocean reduces the wintertime sea level pressure contrast between the continent and the ocean thereby weakening the seasonal cycle. The ~7-day oscillations, also called the three-cold-day/four-warm-day events, are clearly seen in the second and the third CSEOF modes. The ~7-day oscillations are a major component of high-frequency variability in much of the analysis domain and are a manifestation of Rossby waves. Rossby waves aloft result in the concerted variation of physical variables in the atmospheric column; the nature of this response is of nearly barotropic and is clearly felt at the surface. Due to the stronger mean zonal wind, the disturbances by Rossby waves propagate eastward at ~8-12 m/sec; the passing of Rossby waves with alternating signs produces the ~7-day temperature oscillations in Korea. Thus, it is the speed of eastward propagation of Rossby waves not the phase speed of Rossby waves that determines the period of oscillations.

Observing the seasonal cycle of the upper ocean in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, with autonomous profiling floats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, D. F.; Springer, S. R.; Padman, L.; Fricker, H. A.; Bell, R. E.

2017-12-01

The upper layers of the Southern Ocean where it meets the Antarctic ice sheet undergoes a large seasonal cycle controlled by surface radiation and by freshwater fluxes, both of which are strongly influenced by sea ice. In regions where seasonal sea ice and icebergs limit use of ice-tethered profilers and conventional moorings, autonomous profiling floats can sample the upper ocean. The deployment of seven Apex floats (by sea) and six ALAMO floats (by air) provides unique upper ocean hydrographic data in the Ross Sea close to the Ross Ice Shelf front. A novel choice of mission parameters - setting parking depth deeper than the seabed - limits their drift, allowing us to deploy the floats close to the ice shelf front, while sea ice avoidance algorithms allow the floats to to sample through winter under sea ice. Hydrographic profiles show the detailed development of the seasonal mixed layer close to the Ross front, and interannual variability of the seasonal mixed layer and deeper water masses on the central Ross Sea continental shelf. After the sea ice breakup in spring, a warm and fresh surface mixed layer develops, further warming and deepening throughout the summer. The mixed layer deepens, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0ºC in mid-February. By March, the surface energy budget becomes negative and sea ice begins to form, creating a cold, saline and dense surface layer. Once these processes overcome the stable summer stratification, convection erodes the surface mixed layer, mixing some heat downwards to deeper layers. There is considerable interannual variability in the evolution and strength of the surface mixed layer: summers with shorter ice-free periods result in a cooler and shallower surface mixed layer, which accumulates less heat than the summers with longer ice-free periods. Early ice breakup occurred in all floats in 2016/17 summer, enhancing the absorbed solar flux leading to a warmer surface mixed layer. Together, these unique measurements from autonomous profilers provide insight into the hydrographic state of the Ross Sea at the start of the spring period of sea-ice breakup, and how ocean mixing and sea ice interact to initiate the summer open-water season.

Numerical modeling the formation of impact craters: Implications for the structure of Europa's ice shell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silber, E. A.; Johnson, B. C.

2017-12-01

Craters produced by hypervelocity impacts are an invaluable tool for studying planetary surfaces. The observed impact crater depth-diameter (d-D) on the Galilean moon Europa exhibits three distinct transition regimes, two of which may correspond to the presence of warm convecting ice at depths of 7-8 km and a liquid ocean at 19-25 km, respectively [1]. In our study, we use iSALE2D to model formation of impact craters on Europa to investigate thickness and internal structure of its ice shell. This study is different from previous modeling studies [2,3] in that we consider the both fully conductive ice shell over ocean, as well as conductive lid overlying warm convecting ice, to discern the boundary conditions at the interface between the ice and the underlying ocean. Moreover, our model includes implementation of the full viscoelastic-plastic rheology for ice. Our results suggest that both conductive shell over ocean and conductive lid over warm convective ice are equally probable on Europa. We will discuss the implications and relevance of these results. The plausible scenarios are either a 6 - 7 km thick conductive ice lid overlying warm convecting ice at 265 K, or an 8 km completely conductive ice shell over ocean. Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge the developers of iSALE-2D (www.isale-code.de), the simulation code used in our research, including G. Collins, K. Wünnermann, D. Elbeshausen, B. Ivanov and J. Melosh. References: [1] Schenk P. (2002) Nature, 417, 419-421. [2] Bray V.J. et al. (2014) Icarus, 231, 394-406. [3] Cox R. and Beuer A.W. (2015) JGR - Planets, 120(10), 1708-1719.

Modulation of sea surface temperature warming in the Bay of Biscay by Loire and Gironde Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costoya, X.; Fernández-Nóvoa, D.; deCastro, M.; Santos, F.; Lazure, P.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.

2016-01-01

The influence of Loire and Gironde River discharges over the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Bay of Biscay (0.6º-36.6ºW, 44.2º-47.8ºW) was analyzed by means of two complementary databases (MODIS and OISST1/4). The area influenced by river plume showed a different SST when compared with the adjacent oceanic area for the months when the plume attains its highest extension (December, January, and February). Ocean was observed to warm at a rate of approximately 0.3ºC dec-1 while temperature at the area influenced by the rivers cooled at a rate of -0.15ºC dec-1 over the period 1982-2014. The mere presence of a freshwater layer is able to modulate the warming observed at adjacent ocean locations since the coastal area is isolated from the rest of the Bay. This nearshore strip is the only part of the Bay where changes in SST depend on North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but not on North Atlantic SST represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These different cooling-warming trends are even more patent over the last years (2002-2014) under atmospheric favorable conditions for plume enhancement. River runoff increased at a rate on the order of 120 m3s-1dec-1 over that period and southwesterly winds, which favor the confinement of the plume, showed a positive and significant trend both in duration and intensity. Thus, the coastal strip has been observed to cool at a rate of -0.5°C dec-1.

Southern Ocean warming due to human influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyfe, John C.

2006-10-01

I show that the latest series of climate models reproduce the observed mid-depth Southern Ocean warming since the 1950s if they include time-varying changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcanic aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere. The remarkable agreement between observations and state-of-the art climate models suggests significant human influence on Southern Ocean temperatures. I also show that climate models that do not include volcanic aerosols produce mid-depth Southern Ocean warming that is nearly double that produced by climate models that do include volcanic aerosols. This implies that the full effect of human-induced warming of the Southern Ocean may yet to be realized.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Prinn, R. G.

2010-02-01

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Prinn, R. G.

2009-09-01

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled legitimate interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1°C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1°C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.

Countermeasures to Microbiofouling in Simulated Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Heat Exchangers with Surface and Deep Ocean Waters in Hawaii

PubMed Central

Berger, Leslie Ralph; Berger, Joyce A.

1986-01-01

Countermeasures to biofouling in simulated ocean thermal energy conversion heat exchangers have been studied in single-pass flow systems, using cold deep and warm surface ocean waters off the island of Hawaii. Manual brushing of the loops after free fouling periods removed most of the biofouling material. However, over a 2-year period a tenacious film formed. Daily free passage of sponge rubber balls through the tubing only removed the loose surface biofouling layer and was inadequate as a countermeasure in both titanium and aluminum alloy tubes. Chlorination at 0.05, 0.07, and 0.10 mg liter-1 for 1 h day-1 lowered biofouling rates. Only at 0.10 mg liter-1 was chlorine adequate over a 1-year period to keep film formation and heat transfer resistance from rising above the maximum tolerated values. Lower chlorination regimens led to the buildup of uneven or patchy films which produced increased flow turbulence. The result was lower heat transfer resistance values which did not correlate with the amount of biofouling. Surfaces which were let foul and then treated with intermittent or continuous chlorination at 0.10 mg of chlorine or less per liter were only partially or unevenly cleaned, although heat transfer measurements did not indicate that fact. It took continuous chlorination at 0.25 mg liter-1 to bring the heat transfer resistance to zero and eliminate the fouling layer. Biofouling in deep cold seawater was much slower than in the warm surface waters. Tubing in one stainless-steel loop had a barely detectable fouling layer after 1 year in flow. With aluminum alloys sufficient corrosion and biofouling material accumulated to require that some fouling coutermeasure be used in long-term operation of an ocean thermal energy conversion plant. Images PMID:16347076

Coastal Permafrost Bluff Response to Summer Warming, Barter Island, NE Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, B. M.; Gibbs, A.; Johnson, C. D.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Oberle, F. J.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Lorenson, T. D.

2016-12-01

Observations of warming air and sea temperatures in the Arctic are leading to longer periods of permafrost thaw and ice-free conditions during summer, which lead to increased exposure to coastal storm surge, wave impacts, and heightened erosion. Recently collected air and soil (bluff) temperatures, atmospheric pressure, water levels, time-lapse photography, aerial photography and satellite imagery, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys were used to document coastal bluff morphological response to seasonal warming. Data collection instruments and time-lapse cameras installed overlooking a bluff face on the exposed open ocean coast and within an erosional gully were used to create an archive of hourly air temperature, pressure, bluff morphology, and sea-state conditions allowing for documentation of individual bluff failure events and coincident meteorology. Permafrost boreholes as deep as 6 m from the upper bluff tundra surface were fitted with thermistor arrays to record a high resolution temperature record that spanned an initial frozen state, a summer thaw cycle, and subsequent re-freezing. Late summer ERT surveys were used to link temperature observations to subsurface electrical resistivities and active-layer dynamics. Preliminary observations suggest surface warming and active layer growth are responsible for a significant amount of bluff face failures that are exacerbated in the shore perpendicular gullies and along the exposed ocean coast. Electrical resistivity surveys and geochemical data reveal concentrated brines at depth, which likely contribute to enhanced, localized erosion in weakened strata.

ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

2017-10-01

The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.

2016-02-01

During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will continue to measure the evolution of the shallow warm pool in the SCCS and its potential interaction with ENSO-related anomalies.

Fish like it Hot? The response of ichthyolith accumulation to changing climates of the Paleogene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibert, E. C.; Zill, M. E.; Bryant, R. M.; Graves, L. G.; Norris, R. D.

2014-12-01

It has been hypothesized that the production of fish in the water column is related to the amount of primary production in the surface waters. Most future Earth scenarios suggest that as the climate warms, increased surface ocean stratification will decrease nutrient availability and therefore net primary productivity and fish production. Here we calculate accumulation rates of ichthyoliths (microfossil fish teeth and shark dermal scales) throughout the Paleogene and find that ichthyolith accumulation is inversely related to hypothesized changes in primary productivity, but is positively related to ocean temperature. At DSDP Site 596 in the South Pacific, and ODP Site 1258 from the equatorial Atlantic, accumulation of fish fossils increase 6-10 fold from the relatively cool Paleocene into the warm Early Eocene Climate Optimum. In contrast, cooling and increased biosilica deposition at the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) Boundary suggests that the marine ecosystem switched to a highly productive diatom-dominated ocean, which should favor short, efficient food chains and increased fish production. However, we find that at both Pacific DSDP Site 596 and Atlantic DSDP Site 522, fish accumulation drops by about 50% across the E/O. Indeed, this relation between ichthyolith accumulation and δ18O-estimated paleotemperature is also seen in the Oligocene, at North Pacific ODP Site 886, where warming in the middle Oligocene is mirrored by an increase in ichthyolith accumulation. It appears that ichthyolith accumulation rate may not be purely an effect of total primary production in the water column but rather, may reflect a fundamental response in fish physiology or ecosystem efficiency to warmer water. It has been documented that respiration is faster and more efficient in warm waters, and this may help generate more efficient food web links that compensate for any decrease in primary productivity caused by global warming. Indeed, it appears that fish seem to thrive as the temperature goes up.

Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Li, Mingwei

2017-12-01

We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one-half cycle ( 35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1-4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3-1.0 μg m-3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long-term air quality planning.

Non-additive effects of ocean acidification in combination with warming on the larval proteome of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas.

PubMed

Harney, Ewan; Artigaud, Sébastien; Le Souchu, Pierrick; Miner, Philippe; Corporeau, Charlotte; Essid, Hafida; Pichereau, Vianney; Nunes, Flavia L D

2016-03-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide results in ocean acidification and warming, significantly impacting marine invertebrate larvae development. We investigated how ocean acidification in combination with warming affected D-veliger larvae of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Larvae were reared for 40h under either control (pH8.1, 20 °C), acidified (pH7.9, 20 °C), warm (pH8.1, 22 °C) or warm acidified (pH7.9, 22 °C) conditions. Larvae in acidified conditions were significantly smaller than in the control, but warm acidified conditions mitigated negative effects on size, and increased calcification. A proteomic approach employing two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE) was used to quantify proteins and relate their abundance to phenotypic traits. In total 12 differentially abundant spots were identified by nano-liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. These proteins had roles in metabolism, intra- and extra-cellular matrix formations, stress response, and as molecular chaperones. Seven spots responded to reduced pH, four to increased temperature, and six to acidification and warming. Reduced abundance of proteins such as ATP synthase and GAPDH, and increased abundance of superoxide dismutase, occurred when both pH and temperature changes were imposed, suggesting altered metabolism and enhanced oxidative stress. These results identify key proteins that may be involved in the acclimation of C. gigas larvae to ocean acidification and warming. Increasing atmospheric CO2 raises sea surface temperatures and results in ocean acidification, two climatic variables known to impact marine organisms. Larvae of calcifying species may be particularly at risk to such changing environmental conditions. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas is ecologically and commercially important, and understanding its ability to acclimate to climate change will help to predict how aquaculture of this species is likely to be impacted. Modest, yet realistic changes in pH and/or temperature may be more informative of how populations will respond to contemporary climate change. We showed that concurrent acidification and warming mitigates the negative effects of pH alone on size of larvae, but proteomic analysis reveals altered patterns of metabolism and an increase in oxidative stress suggesting non-additive effects of the interaction between pH and temperature on protein abundance. Thus, even small changes in climate may influence development, with potential consequences later in life. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, Matthew H.; Garçon, Véronique C.

1994-09-01

The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current) and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC). The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor). Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean exchange of thermocline, intermediate and deep waters are constructed from an analysis of flows bound between isothermal and isobaric surfaces. This analysis shows how the return path of NADW is partitioned between a cold water route through the Drake Passage (6.5 Sv), a warm water route involving the Agulhas Current sheeding thermocline water westward (2.5 Sv), and a recirculation of intermediate water originating in the Indian Ocean (1.6 Sv).

Warm Eocene climate enhanced petroleum generation from Cretaceous source rocks - a potential climate feedback mechanism?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. F.; Funnell, R. H.

2012-04-01

Surface and deep sea temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene until the Early Eocene climatic Optimum increased by 5 - 10° C. This change was associated with a negative δ13C trend which implies major changes in global carbon cycling and enrichment of surface systems in isotopically light carbon. The degree of change in sedimentary δ13C requires emission of >10,000 gigatonnes of isotopically light carbon into the ocean. We reveal a relationship between global warming and increased petroleum generation in sedimentary basins operating on 100 kyr to Myr time scales that may explain the observed isotope shift. We use TEX86-based surface temperature data1 to predict how change in surface temperature influences the temperature evolution and resultant petroleum generation in four southwest Pacific sedimentary basins. Models predict an up to 50% increase in oil and gas expulsion rates in response to the increase in temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene in the region. Such an increase in petroleum generation would have significantly increased leakage of light hydrocarbons and oil degeneration products into surface systems. We propose that our modelling results are representative of a large number of sedimentary basins world-wide and that early Eocene warming has led to a synchronization of periods of maximum petroleum generation and enhanced generation in otherwise unproductive basins through extension of the volume of source rock within the oil and gas window. Extrapolating our modelling results to hundreds of sedimentary basins worldwide suggests that globally increased leakage could have led to the release of an amount of CH4, CO2 and light petroleum components into surface systems compatible with the observed changes in δ13C. We further suggest that this is a significant feedback effect, enhancing early Eocene climate warming. 1Bijl, P. K., S. Schouten, A. Sluijs, G.-J. Reichart, J. C. Zachos, and H. Brinkhuis (2009), Early Palaeogene temperature evolution of the southwest Pacific Ocean, Nature, 461, 776-779.

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Shubert, S.; Starr, David OC.; Susskind, J.; Wu, M.-L. C.

2002-01-01

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.

Limited contribution of ancient methane to surface waters of the U.S. Beaufort Sea shelf

PubMed Central

Sparrow, Katy J.; Kessler, John D.; Southon, John R.; Garcia-Tigreros, Fenix; Schreiner, Kathryn M.; Ruppel, Carolyn D.; Miller, John B.; Lehman, Scott J.; Xu, Xiaomei

2018-01-01

In response to warming climate, methane can be released to Arctic Ocean sediment and waters from thawing subsea permafrost and decomposing methane hydrates. However, it is unknown whether methane derived from this sediment storehouse of frozen ancient carbon reaches the atmosphere. We quantified the fraction of methane derived from ancient sources in shelf waters of the U.S. Beaufort Sea, a region that has both permafrost and methane hydrates and is experiencing significant warming. Although the radiocarbon-methane analyses indicate that ancient carbon is being mobilized and emitted as methane into shelf bottom waters, surprisingly, we find that methane in surface waters is principally derived from modern-aged carbon. We report that at and beyond approximately the 30-m isobath, ancient sources that dominate in deep waters contribute, at most, 10 ± 3% of the surface water methane. These results suggest that even if there is a heightened liberation of ancient carbon–sourced methane as climate change proceeds, oceanic oxidation and dispersion processes can strongly limit its emission to the atmosphere. PMID:29349299

Limited contribution of ancient methane to surface waters of the U.S. Beaufort Sea shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparrow, Katy J.; Kessler, John D.; Southon, John R.; Garcia-Tigreros, Fenix; Schreiner, Kathryn M.; Ruppel, Carolyn D.; Miller, John B.; Lehman, Scott J.; Xu, Xiaomei

2018-01-01

In response to warming climate, methane can be released to Arctic Ocean sediment and waters from thawing subsea permafrost and decomposing methane hydrates. However, it is unknown whether methane derived from this sediment storehouse of frozen ancient carbon reaches the atmosphere. We quantified the fraction of methane derived from ancient sources in shelf waters of the U.S. Beaufort Sea, a region that has both permafrost and methane hydrates and is experiencing significant warming. Although the radiocarbon-methane analyses indicate that ancient carbon is being mobilized and emitted as methane into shelf bottom waters, surprisingly, we find that methane in surface waters is principally derived from modern-aged carbon. We report that at and beyond approximately the 30-m isobath, ancient sources that dominate in deep waters contribute, at most, 10 ± 3% of the surface water methane. These results suggest that even if there is a heightened liberation of ancient carbon–sourced methane as climate change proceeds, oceanic oxidation and dispersion processes can strongly limit its emission to the atmosphere.

A global ocean climatological atlas of the Turner angle: implications for double-diffusion and water-mass structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Yuzhu

2002-11-01

The 1994 Levitus climatological atlas is used to calculate the Turner angle (named after J. Stewart Turner) to examine which oceanic water masses are favorable for double-diffusion in the form of diffusive convection or salt-fingering and which are doubly stable. This atlas complements the Levitus climatology. It reveals the major double-diffusive signals associated with large-scale water-mass structure. In total, about 44% of the oceans display double-diffusion, of which 30% is salt-fingering and 14% is diffusive double-diffusion. Results show that various central and deep waters are favorable for salt-fingering. The former is due to positive evaporation minus precipitation, and the latter is due to thermohaline circulation, i.e. the southward spreading of relatively warm, salty North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) overlying cold, fresh Antarctic Bottom Water. In the northern Indian Ocean and eastern North Atlantic, favorable conditions for salt-fingering are found throughout the water column. The Red Sea (including the Persian Gulf) and Mediterranean Sea are the sources of warm, salty water for the ocean. As consequence, temperature and salinity in these outflow regions both decrease from the sea surface to the bottom. On the other hand, ocean currents are in general sluggish in these regions. In the polar and subpolar regions of Arctic and Antarctic, Okhotsk Sea, Gulf of Alaska, the subpolar gyre of the North Pacific, the Labrador Sea, and the Norwegian Sea, the upper layer water is favorable for diffusive convection because of high latitude surface cooling and ice melting. Weak and shallow diffusive convection is also found throughout tropical regions and the Bay of Bengal. The former is due to excessive precipitation over evaporation and rain cooling, and the latter is due to both precipitation and river runoff. Diffusive convection in the ocean's interior is unique to the South Atlantic between Antarctic Intermediate Water and upper NADW (uNADW). It is the consequence of the intrusive equatorward flow of upper Circumpolar Deep Water, which carries with it the minimum temperature and very low salinity overlying warm, salty uNADW.

Enceladus and Europa: How Does Hydrothermal Activity Begin at the Surface?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matson, D. L.; Castillo-Rogez, J. C.; Johnson, T. V.; Lunine, J. I.; Davies, A. G.

2011-01-01

The question of how the surface hydrothermal activity (e.g., eruptive plumes and heat flow) is initiated can be addressed within the frame-work of our "Perrier Ocean" model. This model delivers the necessary heat and chemicals to support the heat flow and plumes observed by Cassini in Enceladus' South Polar Region. The model employs closed-loop circulation of water from a sub-surface ocean. The ocean is the main reservoir of heat and chemicals, including dissolved gases. As ocean water moves up toward the surface, pressure is re-duced and gases exsolve forming bubbles. This bub-bly mixture is less dense than the icy crust and the buoyant ocean-water mixture rises toward the surface. Near the surface, heat and chemicals, including some volatiles, are delivered to the chambers in which plumes form and also to shallow reservoirs that keep the surface ice "warm". (Plume operations, per se, are as described by Schmidt et al. and Postberg et al. and are adopted by us.) After transferring heat, the water cools, bubbles contract and dissolve, and the mixture is now relatively dense. It descends through cracks in the crust and returns to the ocean. Once the closed-loop circulation has started it is self-sustaining. Loss of water via the erupting plumes is relatively negligible compared to the amount needed to maintain the heat flow.We note that the activity described herein for the the "Perrier-Ocean" model could, a priori, apply to all small icy bodies that sheltered an interior ocean at some point in their history.

Heat Content and Ice Draft Variability over the Slope of the Chukchi Sea from 2016-2017 Ocean Moorings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muenchow, A.; Ryan, P. A.; Badiey, M.; Elmer, C.; Eickmeier, J.

2017-12-01

The shallow-water component of the Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE) will quantify how ocean properties vary at daily to seasonal time scales over the outer continental shelf of the Chukchi Sea. We here describe initial results related to a weak sound channel above warm Atlantic and below seasonally modulated surface waters. It coincides with the cold halocline layer that often slopes up- or downward at the edge of the continental shelf in response to surface forcing. Sloping topography supports isopycnal oscillations whose time scales vary from hours to months. These Kelvin or Rossby waves will become more pronounced in a increasingly dynamic, wind-forced Arctic Ocean with a diminished, thinner, and more mobile ice cover.

Deconstructing the conveyor belt.

PubMed

Lozier, M Susan

2010-06-18

For the past several decades, oceanographers have embraced the dominant paradigm that the ocean's meridional overturning circulation operates like a conveyor belt, transporting cold waters equatorward at depth and warm waters poleward at the surface. Within this paradigm, the conveyor, driven by changes in deepwater production at high latitudes, moves deep waters and their attendant properties continuously along western boundary currents and returns surface waters unimpeded to deepwater formation sites. A number of studies conducted over the past few years have challenged this paradigm by revealing the vital role of the ocean's eddy and wind fields in establishing the structure and variability of the ocean's overturning. Here, we review those studies and discuss how they have collectively changed our view of the simple conveyor-belt model.

Diagnosing the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer precipitation in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jingpeng; Ren, Hong-Li; Li, Weijing; Zuo, Jinqing

2018-03-01

Precipitation in southern China during boreal summer (June to August) shows a substantial interdecadal variability on the timescale longer than 8 years. In this study, based on the analysis of singular value decomposition, we diagnose the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the observational precipitation in southern China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean. Results indicate that there exist a remarkable southern China zonal dipole (SCZD) pattern of interdecadal variability of summer precipitation and an interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (ID-IOBM) of SST. It is found that the SCZD is evidently covaried with the ID-IOBM, which may induce anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and atmospheric Kelvin waves. During the warm phase of the ID-IOBM, an enhanced lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence exist over the tropical Indian Ocean, which is a typical Gill-Matsuno-type response to the SST warming. Meanwhile, the accompanied upper-level outflow anomalies further converge over the Indo-China peninsula, resulting in a lower-level anticyclone that contributes to reduction of the eastward moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal to the west part of southern China. In addition, the Kelvin wave-like pattern, as a response of the warm ID-IOBM phase, further induces the lower-level anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea-Philippines. Such an anticyclonic circulation is favorable for more water vapor transport from the East China Sea into the east part of southern China. Therefore, the joint effects of the anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and the Kelvin wave-like pattern associated with the ID-IOBM may eventually play a key role in generating the SCZD pattern.

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Lei; Shin, Sang-Ik; Liu, Zhengyu; Liu, Qinyu

2016-10-01

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was estimated from ensemble simulations of two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) with an array of idealized SST anomaly patch prescriptions. Consistent sensitivity patterns were obtained in both models. Sensitivity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation to cooling in the East Pacific was much weaker than to that of the same magnitude in the local Indian-western Pacific, over which a meridional pattern of warm north and cold south was most instrumental in increasing ISM precipitation. This indicates that the strength of the ENSO-ISM relationship is due to the large-amplitude East Pacific SST anomaly rather than its sensitivity value. Sensitivity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), represented by the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, also known as the meiyu-baiu front) precipitation, is non-uniform across the Indian Ocean basin. YHRV precipitation was most sensitive to warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, whereas the southern Indian Ocean had the opposite effect. This implies that the strengthened EASM in the post-Niño year is attributable mainly to warming of the northern Indian Ocean. The corresponding physical links between these SST anomaly patterns and ASM precipitation were also discussed. The relevance of sensitivity maps was justified by the high correlation between sensitivity-map-based reconstructed time series using observed SST anomaly patterns and actual precipitation series derived from ensemble-mean atmospheric GCM runs with time-varying global SST prescriptions during the same period. The correlation results indicated that sensitivity maps derived from patch experiments were far superior to those based on regression methods.

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

Nudging the Arctic Ocean to quantify Arctic sea ice feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Evelien; Severijns, Camiel; Bintanja, Richard

2017-04-01

It is well-established that the Arctic is warming 2 to 3 time faster than rest of the planet. One of the great uncertainties in climate research is related to what extent sea ice feedbacks amplify this (seasonally varying) Arctic warming. Earlier studies have analyzed existing climate model output using correlations and energy budget considerations in order to quantify sea ice feedbacks through indirect methods. From these analyses it is regularly inferred that sea ice likely plays an important role, but details remain obscure. Here we will take a different and a more direct approach: we will keep the sea ice constant in a sensitivity simulation, using a state-of -the-art climate model (EC-Earth), applying a technique that has never been attempted before. This experimental technique involves nudging the temperature and salinity of the ocean surface (and possibly some layers below to maintain the vertical structure and mixing) to a predefined prescribed state. When strongly nudged to existing (seasonally-varying) sea surface temperatures, ocean salinity and temperature, we force the sea ice to remain in regions/seasons where it is located in the prescribed state, despite the changing climate. Once we obtain fixed' sea ice, we will run a future scenario, for instance 2 x CO2 with and without prescribed sea ice, with the difference between these runs providing a measure as to what extent sea ice contributes to Arctic warming, including the seasonal and geographical imprint of the effects.

Coherent Multidecadal Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability in the North Atlantic: Blocking Corresponds with Warm Subpolar Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa M.; Rhines, P. B.; Worthen, D. L.

2012-01-01

Winters with frequent atmospheric blocking, in a band of latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean. This is evident in atmospheric reanalysis data, both modern and for the full 20th century. Blocking is approximately in phase with Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV). Wintertime atmospheric blocking involves a highly distorted jetstream, isolating large regions of air from the westerly circulation. It influences the ocean through windstress-curl and associated air/sea heat flux. While blocking is a relatively high-frequency phenomenon, it is strongly modulated over decadal timescales. The blocked regime (weaker ocean gyres, weaker air-sea heat flux, paradoxically increased transport of warm subtropical waters poleward) contributes to the warm phase of AMV. Atmospheric blocking better describes the early 20thC warming and 1996-2010 warm period than does the NAO index. It has roots in the hemispheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. Subpolar Atlantic variability covaries with distant AMOC fields: both these connections may express the global influence of the subpolar North Atlantic ocean on the global climate system.

A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5.1-1degree

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stone, Dáithí A.; Risser, Mark D.; Angélil, Oliver M.

This paper presents two contributions for research into better understanding the role of anthropogenic warming in extreme weather. The first contribution is the generation of a large number of multi-decadal simulations using a medium-resolution atmospheric climate model, CAM5.1-1degree, under two scenarios of historical climate following the protocols of the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project: the one we have experienced (All-Hist), and one that might have been experienced in the absence of human interference with the climate system (Nat-Hist). These simulations are also specifically designed for understanding extreme weather and atmospheric variability in the context of anthropogenic climate change.The second contributionmore » takes advantage of the duration and size of these simulations in order to identify features of variability in the prescribed ocean conditions that may strongly influence calculated estimates of the role of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather frequency (event attribution). There is a large amount of uncertainty in how much anthropogenic emissions should warm regional ocean surface temperatures, yet contributions to the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project and similar efforts so far use only one or a limited number of possible estimates of the ocean warming attributable to anthropogenic emissions when generating their Nat-Hist simulations. Thus, the importance of the uncertainty in regional attributable warming estimates to the results of event attribution studies is poorly understood. The identification of features of the anomalous ocean state that seem to strongly influence event attribution estimates should therefore be able to serve as a basis set for effective sampling of other plausible attributable warming patterns. The identification performed in this paper examines monthly temperature and precipitation output from the CAM5.1-1degree simulations averaged over 237 land regions, and compares interannual anomalous variations in the ratio between the frequencies of extremes in the All-Hist and Nat-Hist simulations against variations in ocean temperatures.« less

A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5.1-1degree

DOE PAGES

Stone, Dáithí A.; Risser, Mark D.; Angélil, Oliver M.; ...

2018-03-01

This paper presents two contributions for research into better understanding the role of anthropogenic warming in extreme weather. The first contribution is the generation of a large number of multi-decadal simulations using a medium-resolution atmospheric climate model, CAM5.1-1degree, under two scenarios of historical climate following the protocols of the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project: the one we have experienced (All-Hist), and one that might have been experienced in the absence of human interference with the climate system (Nat-Hist). These simulations are also specifically designed for understanding extreme weather and atmospheric variability in the context of anthropogenic climate change.The second contributionmore » takes advantage of the duration and size of these simulations in order to identify features of variability in the prescribed ocean conditions that may strongly influence calculated estimates of the role of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather frequency (event attribution). There is a large amount of uncertainty in how much anthropogenic emissions should warm regional ocean surface temperatures, yet contributions to the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project and similar efforts so far use only one or a limited number of possible estimates of the ocean warming attributable to anthropogenic emissions when generating their Nat-Hist simulations. Thus, the importance of the uncertainty in regional attributable warming estimates to the results of event attribution studies is poorly understood. The identification of features of the anomalous ocean state that seem to strongly influence event attribution estimates should therefore be able to serve as a basis set for effective sampling of other plausible attributable warming patterns. The identification performed in this paper examines monthly temperature and precipitation output from the CAM5.1-1degree simulations averaged over 237 land regions, and compares interannual anomalous variations in the ratio between the frequencies of extremes in the All-Hist and Nat-Hist simulations against variations in ocean temperatures.« less

Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-31

As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

Westerly Wind Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Precursor to El Nino: A Case Study for the 2002-03 El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Gu, Guojun

2003-01-01

This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.

Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer.

PubMed

Pedersen, Sindre Andre; Hanssen, Anja Elise

2018-01-01

Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO 2 ), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus , as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.

77 FR 23209 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Delisting of Eastern DPS of Steller Sea Lions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-18

... five potential sources of threat under this factor: 1. Global Climate Warming and Ocean Acidification... 5. Oil and Gas Development. Global climate warming and ocean acidification pose a potential threat... information suggests it is likely that global warming and ocean acidification may affect eastern North Pacific...

Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Luis, Kelly M. A.; Doney, Scott C.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences.

PubMed

Kavanaugh, Maria T; Rheuban, Jennie E; Luis, Kelly M A; Doney, Scott C

2017-12-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Recent trends in energy flows through the Arctic climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leo

2016-04-01

While Arctic climate change can be diagnosed in many parameters, a comprehensive assessment of long-term changes and low frequency variability in the coupled Arctic energy budget still remains challenging due to the complex physical processes involved and the lack of observations. Here we draw on strongly improved observational capabilities of the past 15 years and employ observed radiative fluxes from CERES along with state-of-the-art atmospheric as well as coupled ocean-ice reanalyses to explore recent changes in energy flows through the Arctic climate system. Various estimates of ice volume and ocean heat content trends imply that the energy imbalance of the Arctic climate system was >1 Wm-2 during the 2000-2015 period, where most of the extra heat warmed the ocean and a comparatively small fraction was used to melt sea ice. The energy imbalance was partly fed by enhanced oceanic heat transports into the Arctic, especially in the mid 2000s. Seasonal trends of net radiation show a very clear signal of the ice-albedo feedback. Stronger radiative energy input during summer means increased seasonal oceanic heat uptake and accelerated sea ice melt. In return, lower minimum sea ice extent and higher SSTs lead to enhanced heat release from the ocean during fall season. These results are consistent with modeling studies finding an enhancement of the annual cycle of surface energy exchanges in a warming Arctic. Moreover, stronger heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in fall tend to warm the arctic boundary layer and reduce meridional temperature gradients, thereby reducing atmospheric energy transports into the polar cap. Although the observed results are a robust finding, extended high-quality datasets are needed to reliably separate trends from low frequency variability.

Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehlert, Dana; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

Effect of climate-ocean changes on the abundance of Pacific saury.

PubMed

Gong, Yeong; Suh, Young Sang

2013-01-01

Effects of ocean climate changes on the population structure and abundance of Pacific saury (Cololabis sira) were investigated on the basis of climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, catch and body size information from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region (Yellow Sea, East China Sea and East/Japan Sea) during the period 1950-2010. It is suggested that oceanic regime shifts in the early 1970s, late 1980s and late 1990s occurred in the TWC region in winter, but the regime shifts in the mid-1970s and in the late 1980s were not evident in the spring SST anomaly series. The abundance and body size of Pacific saury fluctuated in association with the winter oceanic changes in the TWC region. The catch rates and abundance of large size saury were far bellow average during their northward migrations in the TWC region in the years with abnormally cool winters (e.g., 1963, 1970, 1977, 1981-1989 and 2006) and above average in the years with warm winters. These patterns demonstrate decadal-scale variations together with large inter-annual fluctuations in the structure and abundance of Pacific saury in association with the climatic-oceanic changes. These results, along with an alternation of dominant pelagic fish species, indicate the status of the saury population in the TWC region is in good condition, similar to that in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC) region during the warm regime after the late 1980s climate regime shift.

Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenton, Andrew; Matear, Richard J.; Keller, David P.; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr-1) over the period 2020-2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ˜ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020-2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Winter ocean-ice interactions under thin sea ice observed by IAOOS platforms during N-ICE2015: Salty surface mixed layer and active basal melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, Zoé; Provost, Christine; Villacieros-Robineau, Nicolas; Sennéchael, Nathalie; Meyer, Amelie

2016-10-01

IAOOS (Ice Atmosphere Arctic Ocean Observing System) platforms, measuring physical parameters at the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interface deployed as part of the N-ICE2015 campaign, provide new insights on winter conditions North of Svalbard. The three regions crossed during the drifts, the Nansen Basin, the Sofia Deep, and the Svalbard northern continental slope featured distinct hydrographic properties and ice-ocean exchanges. In the Nansen Basin, the quiescent warm layer was capped by a stepped halocline (60 and 110 m) and a deep thermocline (110 m). Ice was forming and the winter mixed layer salinity was larger by ˜0.1 g/kg than previously observed. Over the Svalbard continental slope, the Atlantic Water (AW) was very shallow (20 m from the surface) and extended offshore from the 500 m isobath by a distance of about 70 km, sank along the slope (40 m from the surface) and probably shed eddies into the Sofia Deep. In the Sofia Deep, relatively warm waters of Atlantic origin extended from 90 m downward. Resulting from different pathways, these waters had a wide range of hydrographic characteristics. Sea-ice melt was widespread over the Svalbard continental slope and ocean-to-ice heat fluxes reached values of 400 W m-2 (mean of ˜150 W m-2 over the continental slope). Sea-ice melt events were associated with near 12 h fluctuations in the mixed-layer temperature and salinity corresponding to the periodicity of tides and near-inertial waves potentially generated by winter storms, large barotropic tides over steep topography, and/or geostrophic adjustments.

The 2015/16 El Niño Event in Context of the MERRA-2 Reanalysis: A Comparison of the Tropical Pacific with 1982/83 and 1997/98

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kovach, Robin M.; Pawson, Steven; Vernieres, Guillaume

2017-01-01

The 2015-2016 El Nino is analyzed using atmospheric/oceanic analysis produced using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation systems. As well as describing the structure of the event, a theme of the work is to compare and contrast it with two other strong El Ninos, in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998. These three El Nino events are included in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and in the more recent MERRA-2 reanalyses. MERRA-2 allows a comparison of fields derived from the underlying GEOS model, facilitating a more detailed comparison of physical forcing mechanisms in the El Nino events. Various atmospheric/oceanic structures indicate that the 2015/2016 El Nino maximized in the Nino3.4 region, with the large region of warming over most of the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The eastern tropical Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western tropical Pacific are found to be less dry in boreal winter, compared to the earlier two strong events. While the 2015/2016 El Nino had an earlier occurrence of the equatorial Pacific warming and was the strongest event on record in the central Pacific, the 1997/1998 event exhibited a more rapid growth due to stronger westerly wind bursts and Madden-Julian Oscillation during spring, making it the strongest El Nino in the eastern Pacific. Compared to 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, the 2015/2016 event has a shallower thermocline over the eastern Pacific with a weaker zonal contrast of sub-surface water temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. While the three major ENSO events have similarities, each are unique when looking at the atmosphere and ocean surface and sub-surface.

Impact of two-way ocean atmosphere coupling on precipitation forecast for the coastal Adriatic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerkol, Peter; Cedilnik, Jure; Fettich, Anja; Licer, Matjaz; Strajnar, Benedikt; Jerman, Jure

2017-04-01

A two-way coupled ocean and atmosphere modeling system has been developed at Slovenian Environment Agency and the National Institute of Biology (Ličer at al., 2016). The system comprises 4.4 km ALADIN/ALARO limited-area numerical weather prediction model and Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for Adriatic sea and uses Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) as ocean component outside the POM model domain. The heat and momentum fluxes between sea surface and atmosphere as estimated by ALADIN model are transferred into POM every model time stamp, and sea surface temperature (SST) is returned from POM to ALADIN. A positive impact of such a coupling system with respect to one-way coupling was demonstrated mainly for sea surface variables. In this contribution we study the impact on atmospheric variables, mainly precipitation. Unlike in the previous work where the atmospheric part of the system was reinitialized every day from external (non-coupled) data assimilation cycle, we implement the two-way coupling in the data assimilation cycle for ALADIN. Rather than running long-term simulations which would presumably lack observational information given no data assimilation for the ocean component, we focus on several precipitation events and assess performance of the atmospheric model by running the coupled system for a short warm-up periods beforehand the events. We evaluate several approaches to applying the one- or two-way coupling (in the warm-up period, during the main forecast, or both) and several approaches to using SST information in ALADIN in the one-way coupled mode (POM, MFS, global atmospheric model). Preliminary results suggest that it is important that two-way coupling is applied not only during the long term (e.g. 72 h) forecast but also already in the data assimilation cycle prior to event.

Bottom Water Acidification and Warming on the Western Eurasian Arctic Shelves: Dynamical Downscaling Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallhead, P. J.; Bellerby, R. G. J.; Silyakova, A.; Slagstad, D.; Polukhin, A. A.

2017-10-01

The impacts of oceanic CO2 uptake and global warming on the surface ocean environment have received substantial attention, but few studies have focused on shelf bottom water, despite its importance as habitat for benthic organisms and demersal fisheries such as cod. We used a downscaling ocean biogeochemical model to project bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves. A model hindcast produced 14-18 year acidification trends that were largely consistent with observational estimates at stations in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. Projections under SRES A1B scenario revealed a rapid and spatially variable decline in bottom pH by 0.10-0.20 units over 50 years (2.5%-97.5% quantiles) at depths 50-500 m on the Norwegian, Barents, Kara, and East Greenland shelves. Bottom water undersaturation with respect to aragonite occurred over the entire Kara shelf by 2040 and over most of the Barents and East Greenland shelves by 2070. Shelf acidification was predominantly driven by the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2, and was concurrent with warming of 0.1-2.7°C over 50 years. These combined perturbations will act as significant multistressors on the Barents and Kara shelves. Future studies should aim to improve the resolution of shelf bottom processes in models, and should consider the Kara Sea and Russian shelves as possible bellwethers of shelf acidification.

Eddy-driven stratification initiates North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms.

PubMed

Mahadevan, Amala; D'Asaro, Eric; Lee, Craig; Perry, Mary Jane

2012-07-06

Springtime phytoplankton blooms photosynthetically fix carbon and export it from the surface ocean at globally important rates. These blooms are triggered by increased light exposure of the phytoplankton due to both seasonal light increase and the development of a near-surface vertical density gradient (stratification) that inhibits vertical mixing of the phytoplankton. Classically and in current climate models, that stratification is ascribed to a springtime warming of the sea surface. Here, using observations from the subpolar North Atlantic and a three-dimensional biophysical model, we show that the initial stratification and resulting bloom are instead caused by eddy-driven slumping of the basin-scale north-south density gradient, resulting in a patchy bloom beginning 20 to 30 days earlier than would occur by warming.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Seagrass ecophysiological performance under ocean warming and acidification.

PubMed

Repolho, Tiago; Duarte, Bernardo; Dionísio, Gisela; Paula, José Ricardo; Lopes, Ana R; Rosa, Inês C; Grilo, Tiago F; Caçador, Isabel; Calado, Ricardo; Rosa, Rui

2017-02-01

Seagrasses play an essential ecological role within coastal habitats and their worldwide population decline has been linked to different types of anthropogenic forces. We investigated, for the first time, the combined effects of future ocean warming and acidification on fundamental biological processes of Zostera noltii, including shoot density, leaf coloration, photophysiology (electron transport rate, ETR; maximum PSII quantum yield, F v /F m ) and photosynthetic pigments. Shoot density was severely affected under warming conditions, with a concomitant increase in the frequency of brownish colored leaves (seagrass die-off). Warming was responsible for a significant decrease in ETR and F v /F m (particularly under control pH conditions), while promoting the highest ETR variability (among experimental treatments). Warming also elicited a significant increase in pheophytin and carotenoid levels, alongside an increase in carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio and De-Epoxidation State (DES). Acidification significantly affected photosynthetic pigments content (antheraxanthin, β-carotene, violaxanthin and zeaxanthin), with a significant decrease being recorded under the warming scenario. No significant interaction between ocean acidification and warming was observed. Our findings suggest that future ocean warming will be a foremost determinant stressor influencing Z. noltii survival and physiological performance. Additionally, acidification conditions to occur in the future will be unable to counteract deleterious effects posed by ocean warming.

Seagrass ecophysiological performance under ocean warming and acidification

PubMed Central

Repolho, Tiago; Duarte, Bernardo; Dionísio, Gisela; Paula, José Ricardo; Lopes, Ana R.; Rosa, Inês C.; Grilo, Tiago F.; Caçador, Isabel; Calado, Ricardo; Rosa, Rui

2017-01-01

Seagrasses play an essential ecological role within coastal habitats and their worldwide population decline has been linked to different types of anthropogenic forces. We investigated, for the first time, the combined effects of future ocean warming and acidification on fundamental biological processes of Zostera noltii, including shoot density, leaf coloration, photophysiology (electron transport rate, ETR; maximum PSII quantum yield, Fv/Fm) and photosynthetic pigments. Shoot density was severely affected under warming conditions, with a concomitant increase in the frequency of brownish colored leaves (seagrass die-off). Warming was responsible for a significant decrease in ETR and Fv/Fm (particularly under control pH conditions), while promoting the highest ETR variability (among experimental treatments). Warming also elicited a significant increase in pheophytin and carotenoid levels, alongside an increase in carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio and De-Epoxidation State (DES). Acidification significantly affected photosynthetic pigments content (antheraxanthin, β-carotene, violaxanthin and zeaxanthin), with a significant decrease being recorded under the warming scenario. No significant interaction between ocean acidification and warming was observed. Our findings suggest that future ocean warming will be a foremost determinant stressor influencing Z. noltii survival and physiological performance. Additionally, acidification conditions to occur in the future will be unable to counteract deleterious effects posed by ocean warming. PMID:28145531

The PRISM3D paleoenvironmental reconstruction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.; Robinson, M.; Haywood, A.M.; Salzmann, U.; Hill, Daniel; Sohl, L.E.; Chandler, M.; Williams, Mark; Foley, K.; Stoll, D.K.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) paleoenvironmental reconstruction is an internally consistent and comprehensive global synthesis of a past interval of relatively warm and stable climate. It is regularly used in model studies that aim to better understand Pliocene climate, to improve model performance in future climate scenarios, and to distinguish model-dependent climate effects. The PRISM reconstruction is constantly evolving in order to incorporate additional geographic sites and environmental parameters, and is continuously refined by independent research findings. The new PRISM three dimensional (3D) reconstruction differs from previous PRISM reconstructions in that it includes a subsurface ocean temperature reconstruction, integrates geochemical sea surface temperature proxies to supplement the faunal-based temperature estimates, and uses numerical models for the first time to augment fossil data. Here we describe the components of PRISM3D and describe new findings specific to the new reconstruction. Highlights of the new PRISM3D reconstruction include removal of Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes and creation of open waterways in locations where the current bedrock elevation is less than 25m above modern sea level, due to the removal of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the reduction of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mid-Piacenzian oceans were characterized by a reduced east-west temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific, but PRISM3D data do not imply permanent El Niño conditions. The reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient that characterized previous PRISM reconstructions is supported by significant displacement of vegetation belts toward the poles, is extended into the Arctic Ocean, and is confirmed by multiple proxies in PRISM3D. Arctic warmth coupled with increased dryness suggests the formation of warm and salty paleo North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and a more vigorous thermohaline circulation system that may have provided the enhanced ocean heat transport necessary to move warm surface water to the Arctic. New deep ocean temperature data also suggests greater warmth and further southward penetration of paleo NADW.

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

2013-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate. PMID:23893550

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

2013-12-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) on Ancient Climates and Implications for Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cumming, M.

2017-12-01

Our increasingly robust history of ancient climates indicates that high latitude glaciation is the ultimate product of an episodic cooling trend that began about 100-million years ago rather than a result of a yet-to-be identified modal change. Antarctic geography (continent surrounded by ocean) allowed ice to develop prior to significant glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (ocean surrounded by land), but global ice volume generally increased as Earth cooled. The question of what caused the Ice Ages should be reframed as to "What caused the Cenozoic Cooling?" Records tell us that changes in temperature and CO2 levels rise and fall together, however it is not clear when CO2 acts as a driver versus when it is primarily an indicator of temperature change. The episodic nature of the cooling trend suggests other more dynamic phenomena are involved. It is proposed that oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a significant role in regulating Earth's surface temperature. Robust MOC has a cooling effect which results from its sequestration of cold waters (together with their increased heat-absorbing potential) below the surface. Unable to better absorb equatorial insolation for great lengths of time, oceanic deep waters are not able to fully compensate for the heat lost by warm-water transport to Polar Regions. A lag-time between cooling and subsequent warming yields lower operating temperatures commensurate with the strength of global MOC. The long-term decline in global temperatures is largely explained by the tectonic reshaping of ocean basins and the connections between them such that MOC has generally, but not uniformly, increased. Geophysically Influenced MOC (GIMOC) has caused a significant proportion of the lowering of global temperatures in the Cenozoic Era. Short-term disruptions in MOC (and subsequent impacts on global temperatures) were likely involved in Late Pleistocene glacial termination events and may already be compounding present anthropogenic CO2 induced warming.

Ocean warming and spread of pathogenic vibrios in the aquatic environment.

PubMed

Vezzulli, Luigi; Colwell, Rita R; Pruzzo, Carla

2013-05-01

Vibrios are among the most common bacteria that inhabit surface waters throughout the world and are responsible for a number of severe infections both in humans and animals. Several reports recently showed that human Vibrio illnesses are increasing worldwide including fatal acute diarrheal diseases, such as cholera, gastroenteritis, wound infections, and septicemia. Many scientists believe this increase may be associated with global warming and rise in sea surface temperature (SST), although not enough evidence is available to support a causal link between emergence of Vibrio infections and climate warming. The effect of increased SST in promoting spread of vibrios in coastal and brackish waters is considered a causal factor explaining this trend. Field and laboratory studies carried out over the past 40 years supported this hypothesis, clearly showing temperature promotes Vibrio growth and persistence in the aquatic environment. Most recently, a long-term retrospective microbiological study carried out in the coastal waters of the southern North Sea provided the first experimental evidence for a positive and significant relationship between SST and Vibrio occurrence over a multidecadal time scale. As a future challenge, macroecological studies of the effects of ocean warming on Vibrio persistence and spread in the aquatic environment over large spatial and temporal scales would conclusively support evidence acquired to date combined with studies of the impact of global warming on epidemiologically relevant variables, such as host susceptibility and exposure. Assessing a causal link between ongoing climate change and enhanced growth and spread of vibrios and related illness is expected to improve forecast and mitigate future outbreaks associated with these pathogens.

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Nordic and Adjacent Seas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carton, James A.; Chepurin, Gennady A.; Reagan, James; Haekkinen, Sirpa

2011-01-01

Warm salty Atlantic Water is the main source water for the Arctic Ocean and thus plays an important role in the mass and heat budget of the Arctic. This study explores interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water properties in the Nordic Seas area where Atlantic Water enters the Arctic, based on a reexamination of the historical hydrographic record for the years 1950-2009, obtained by combining multiple data sets. The analysis shows a succession of four multi-year warm events where temperature anomalies at 100m depth exceed 0.4oC, and three cold events. Three of the four warm events lasted 3-4 years, while the fourth began in 1999 and persists at least through 2009. This most recent warm event is anomalous in other ways as well, being the strongest, having the broadest geographic extent, being surface-intensified, and occurring under exceptional meteorological conditions. Three of the four warm events were accompanied by elevated salinities consistent with enhanced ocean transport into the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the event spanning July 1989-July 1993. Of the three cold events, two lasted for four years, while the third lasted for nearly 14 years. Two of the three cold events are associated with reduced salinities, but the cold event of the 1960s had elevated salinities. The relationship of these events to meteorological conditions is examined. The results show that local surface heat flux variations act in some cases to reinforce the anomalies, but are too weak to be the sole cause.

Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

2017-04-01

The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

New perspectives of the interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.

2003-04-01

What is the dominant mode of the interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon? Our analysis reveals two off-equatorial surface anticyclones (or cyclones) dominating the evolving A-AM anomalies. One anomalous anticyclone is located over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) during the El Niño developing year and the other occurs over the western North Pacific (WNP), which attains maximum intensity during El Niño mature and persists through the subsequent spring and summer. What mechanisms are responsible for this dominant mode? It has been a prevailing perspective that El Niño/La Niña and warm-pool SST anomalies primarily force the A-AM anomalies. In contrasting to this traditional view, we demonstrate that El Niño forcing alone can explain neither the amplification of the SIO anticyclone nor the maintenance of the WNP anticyclone; the warm pool SST anomalies are largely a result of the anomalous monsoon. We propose that the dominant A-AM mode is attributed to the combined effect of remote El Niño forcing, local monsoon-warm ocean interaction, and the annual cycle of background circulation. The local atmosphere-warm ocean interaction contributes considerably to these monsoon anomalies. The atmosphere-ocean conditions in the SIO and WNP are similar, namely, an east-west anomalous SST dipole with cold water to the east and warm water to the west of the anticyclone center. These coherent conditions result from a positive feedback between the anomalous descending Rossby waves and SST dipole, which intensifies the SIO anticyclone during El Niño growth and maintains the WNP anticyclone during its decay. The atmosphere-ocean interaction in the two regions share common wind-evaporation/entrainment and cloud/radiation feedbacks but differ in the roles of oceanic dynamics in SST variability. The annual cycle of the atmospheric background circulation, on one hand, controls the nature of the local atmosphere-warm ocean interaction; on the other hand, considerably modifies the atmospheric response to remote El Niño forcing. During the summer of El Niño development, a tilted anticyclonic ridge originating from the maritime continent and extending to south India exhibits considerable equatorial asymmetry, which results from the effects of easterly vertical shear on Rossby waves. The extended SVD results also reveal a prominent biennial tendency of the A-AM anomalies, suggesting that the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) is essentially a phenomenon concurring with the turnabout of El Niño and La Niña events. The understanding obtained in this study leads to a new paradigm for TBO.

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, A. Park; Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Rauscher, Sara A.; Robertson, Iain; Wils, Tommy H. G.; Koprowski, Marcin; Eshetu, Zewdu; Loader, Neil J.

2012-11-01

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

The Ocean`s Thermohaline Circulation in a Fish Tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavender, K.; Joyce, P.; Graziano, L.; Harris, S.; Jaroslow, G.; Lea, C.; Schell, J.; Witting, J.

2005-12-01

This demonstration develops intuition about density stratification, a concept critical to understanding the ocean`s thermohaline circulation. In addition, students learn how temperature and salinity affect density, how these characteristics may be density-compensating, and students gain practice in graphing and interpreting vertical profiles and temperature-salinity (T-S) diagrams. The demonstration requires a rectangular fish tank (5-10 gallons) with a plexiglass partition, preparation of three colored ''water masses'' representing surface water (warm and fresh), ''mystery'' Mediterranean Water (warm and salty), and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW; cold and salty), a kitchen sponge, and a temperature and salinity probe. Density may be computed using an Equation of State calculator (e.g. online version at http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/denscalc.html). The larger side of the fish tank is filled halfway with NADW, then surface water is layered on top by carefully pouring it on a floating sponge. A student volunteer measures the temperature and salinity of the two water masses, while another computes the densities. Students draw vertical profiles and T-S diagrams representing the temperature, salinity, and density of the water column. The properties of the ''mystery'' water are measured and students predict what will happen when the water is poured on the opposite side of the partition and is allowed to overflow into the layered water. If the density gradients are sufficiently large, a beautiful internal wave develops as the mystery water overflows the sill and becomes intermediate Mediterranean Water. If time permits, having a student blow on the surface illustrates the limited influence of ''wind'' with depth; an internal wave may by forced by depressing the thermocline with a large, flat spoon; and pouring extra NADW on the sponge floating at the surface may illustrate deep convection.

Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience

PubMed Central

Anthony, Kenneth R N; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Mumby, Peter J; Marshall, Paul A; Cao, Long; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2011-01-01

Ocean warming and acidification from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 represent major global threats to coral reefs, and are in many regions exacerbated by local-scale disturbances such as overfishing and nutrient enrichment. Our understanding of global threats and local-scale disturbances on reefs is growing, but their relative contribution to reef resilience and vulnerability in the future is unclear. Here, we analyse quantitatively how different combinations of CO2 and fishing pressure on herbivores will affect the ecological resilience of a simplified benthic reef community, as defined by its capacity to maintain and recover to coral-dominated states. We use a dynamic community model integrated with the growth and mortality responses for branching corals (Acropora) and fleshy macroalgae (Lobophora). We operationalize the resilience framework by parameterizing the response function for coral growth (calcification) by ocean acidification and warming, coral bleaching and mortality by warming, macroalgal mortality by herbivore grazing and macroalgal growth via nutrient loading. The model was run for changes in sea surface temperature and water chemistry predicted by the rise in atmospheric CO2 projected from the IPCC's fossil-fuel intensive A1FI scenario during this century. Results demonstrated that severe acidification and warming alone can lower reef resilience (via impairment of coral growth and increased coral mortality) even under high grazing intensity and low nutrients. Further, the threshold at which herbivore overfishing (reduced grazing) leads to a coral–algal phase shift was lowered by acidification and warming. These analyses support two important conclusions: Firstly, reefs already subjected to herbivore overfishing and nutrification are likely to be more vulnerable to increasing CO2. Secondly, under CO2 regimes above 450–500 ppm, management of local-scale disturbances will become critical to keeping reefs within an Acropora-rich domain.

Estimation of Global Subsurface Thermal Structure from Satellite Remote Sensing Observations Based on Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, H.; Yan, X. H.

2017-12-01

Subsurface thermal structure of the global ocean is a key factor that reflects the impact of the global climate variability and change. Accurately determining and describing the global subsurface and deeper ocean thermal structure from satellite measurements is becoming even more important for understanding the ocean interior anomaly and dynamic processes during recent global warming and hiatus. It is essential but challenging to determine the extent to which such surface remote sensing observations can be used to develop information about the global ocean interior. This study proposed a Support Vector Regression (SVR) method to estimate Subsurface Temperature Anomaly (STA) in the global ocean. The SVR model can well estimate the global STA upper 1000 m through a suite of satellite remote sensing observations of sea surface parameters (including Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA), Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA), Sea Surface Salinity Anomaly (SSSA) and Sea Surface Wind Anomaly (SSWA)) with in situ Argo data for training and testing at different depth levels. Here, we employed the MSE and R2 to assess SVR performance on the STA estimation. The results from the SVR model were validated for the accuracy and reliability using the worldwide Argo STA data. The average MSE and R2 of the 15 levels are 0.0090 / 0.0086 / 0.0087 and 0.443 / 0.457 / 0.485 for 2-attributes (SSHA, SSTA) / 3-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA) / 4-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA) SVR, respectively. The estimation accuracy was improved by including SSSA and SSWA for SVR input (MSE decreased by 0.4% / 0.3% and R2 increased by 1.4% / 4.2% on average). While, the estimation accuracy gradually decreased with the increase of the depth from 500 m. The results showed that SSSA and SSWA, in addition to SSTA and SSHA, are useful parameters that can help estimate the subsurface thermal structure, as well as improve the STA estimation accuracy. In future, we can figure out more potential and useful sea surface parameters from satellite remote sensing as input attributes so as to further improve the STA sensing accuracy from machine learning. This study can provide a helpful technique for studying thermal variability in the ocean interior which has played an important role in recent global warming and hiatus from satellite observations over global scale.

The origins of the anomalous warming in the California coastal ocean and San Francisco Bay during 2014-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Yi; Farrara, John D.; Bjorkstedt, Eric; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco; Rudnick, Daniel L.; Enright, Wendy; Fisher, Jennifer L.; Peterson, William T.; Welch, Gregory F.; Davis, Curtiss O.; Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.; Zhang, Hongchun; Zhang, Yinglong; Ateljevich, Eli

2017-09-01

During 2014 exceptionally warm water temperatures developed across a wide area off the California coast and within San Francisco Bay (SFB) and persisted into 2016. Observations and numerical model output are used to document this warming and determine its origins. The coastal warming was mostly confined to the upper 100 m of the ocean and was manifested strongly in the two leading modes of upper ocean (0-100 m) temperature variability in the extratropical eastern Pacific. Observations suggest that the coastal warming in 2014 propagated into nearshore regions from the west while later indicating a warming influence that propagated from south to north into the region associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event. An analysis of the upper ocean (0-100 m) heat budget in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulation confirmed this scenario. The results from a set of sensitivity runs with the model in which the lateral boundary conditions varied supported the conclusions drawn from the heat budget analysis. Concerning the warming in the SFB, an examination of the observations and the heat budget in an unstructured-grid numerical model simulation suggested that the warming during the second half of 2014 and early 2016 originated in the adjacent California coastal ocean and propagated through the Golden Gate into the Bay. The finding that the coastal and Bay warming are due to the relatively slow propagation of signals from remote sources raises the possibility that such warming events may be predictable many months or even several seasons in advance.

Recent changes in the summer monsoon circulation and their impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratik, Kad; Parekh, Anant; Karmakar, Ananya; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-05-01

The present study examines changes in the low-level summer monsoon circulation over the Arabian Sea and their impact on the ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. The study confirms intensification and northward migration of low-level jet during 1979 to 2015. Further during the study period, an increase in the Arabian Sea upper ocean heat content is found in spite of a decreasing trend in the net surface heat flux, indicating the possible role of ocean dynamics in the upper ocean warming. Increase in the anti-cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the change in the monsoon circulation induces downwelling over the central Arabian Sea, favoring upper ocean warming. The decreasing trend of southward Ekman transport, a mechanism transporting heat from the land-locked north Indian Ocean to southern latitudes, also supports increasing trend of the upper ocean heat content. To reinstate and quantify the role of changing monsoon circulation in increasing the heat content over the Arabian Sea, sensitivity experiment is carried out using ocean general circulation model. In this experiment, the model is forced by inter-annual momentum forcing while rest of the forcing is climatological. Experiment reveals that the changing monsoon circulation increases the upper ocean heat content, effectively by enhancing downwelling processes and reducing southward heat transport, which strongly endorses our hypothesis that changing ocean dynamics associated with low-level monsoon circulation is causing the increasing trend in the heat content of the Arabian Sea.

A Two-Timescale Response of the Southern Ocean to Ozone Depletion: Importance of the Background State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-02-01

It has been recently suggested that the response of Southern Ocean sea-ice extent to stratospheric ozone depletion is time-dependent; that the ocean surface initially cools due to enhanced northward Ekman drift caused by a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet, and then warms after some time due to upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer. It is therefore possible that ozone depletion could act to favor a short-term increase in sea-ice extent. However, many uncertainties remain in understanding this mechanism, with different models showing widely differing time-scales and magnitudes of the response. Here, we analyze an ensemble of coupled model simulations with a step-function ozone perturbation. The two-timescale response is present with an approximately 30 year initial cooling period. The response is further shown to be highly dependent upon the background ocean temperature and salinity stratification, which is influenced by both natural internal variability and the isopycnal eddy mixing parameterization. It is suggested that the majority of inter-model differences in the Southern Ocean response to ozone depletion are caused by differences in stratification.

Recent SST trends and Flood Disasters in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashiki, Y.; Behera, S. K.; Inoue, S.; Netrananda, S.; Silva, R. D.; Takara, K. T.; Yamagata, T.

2010-12-01

We analyzed recent variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to understand their roles in extreme discharge of Amazon River Basin. In general, higher than monthly average discharge appears when La Niña condition forms and lower than monthly average discharge appears when El Niño condition forms. We also investigated the relationship between SST anomalies and recent floods in Brazil during the period of 1980-2010. Most severe floods (e.g. 2003 and 2010 Rio de Janeiro-São Paulo Flood) in austral summer occurred when El Niño Modoki appears in the Pacific Ocean. In addition, warm waters in tropical South Atlantic Ocean between American and African Coast also helped the moisture convergence to the affected region. Floods in some other locations (for example, Itaipava flood occurred in Maranhao State in 2008) occurred when a La Niña Modoki appeared in Pacific Ocean. These flood disasters in Brazil associated with climate phenomena may increase due to warmer SST trend under the global warming stress.

A Two-Timescale Response to Ozone Depletion: Importance of the Background State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-12-01

It has been recently suggested that the response of Southern Ocean sea-ice extent to stratospheric ozone depletion is time-dependent; that the ocean surface initially cools due to enhanced northward Ekman drift caused by a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet, and then warms after some time due to upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer. It is therefore possible that ozone depletion could act to favor a short-term increase in sea-ice extent. However, many uncertainties remain in understanding this mechanism, with different models showing widely differing time-scales and magnitudes of the response. Here, we analyze an ensemble of coupled model simulations with a step-function ozone perturbation. The two-timescale response is present with an approximately 30 year initial cooling period. The response is further shown to be highly dependent upon the background ocean temperature and salinity stratification, which is influenced by both natural internal variability and the isopycnal eddy mixing parameterization. It is suggested that the majority of inter-model differences in the Southern Ocean response to ozone depletion is caused by differences in stratification.

Arctic ocean radiative fluxes and cloud forcing estimated from the ISCCP C2 cloud dataset, 1983-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schweiger, Axel J.; Key, Jeffrey R.

1994-01-01

Radiative fluxes and cloud forcings for the ocean areas of the Arctic are computed from the monthly cloud product of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for 1983-90. Spatially averaged short-wave fluxes are compared well with climatological values, while downwelling longwave fluxes are significantly lower. This is probably due to the fact that the ISCCP cloud amounts are underestimates. Top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes are in excellent agreement with measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Computed cloud forcings indicate that clouds have a warming effect at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere during winter and a cooling effect during summer. The net radiative effect of clouds is larger at the surface during winter but greater at the top of the atmosphere during summer. Overall the net radiative effect of clouds at the top of the atmosphere is one of cooling. This is in contrast to a previous result from ERBE data showing arctic cloud forcings have a net warming effect. Sensitivities to errors in input parameters are generally greater during winter with cloud amount being the most important paarameter. During summer the surface radiation balance is most sensitive to errors in the measurements of surface reflectance. The results are encouraging, but the estimated error of 20 W/sq m in surface net radiative fluxes is too large, given that estimates of the net radiative warming effect due to a doubling of CO2 are on the order of 4 W/sq m. Because it is difficult to determine the accuracy of results with existing in situ observations, it is recommended that the development of improved algorithms for the retrieval of surface radiative properties be accompanied by the simultaneous assembly of validation datasets.

Surface radiation fluxes in transient climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; O'Brien, D. M.; Dix, M. R.; Murphy, J. M.; Stephens, G. L.; Wild, M.

1999-01-01

Transient CO 2 experiments from five coupled climate models, in which the CO 2 concentration increases at rates of 0.6-1.1% per annum for periods of 75-200 years, are used to document the responses of surface radiation fluxes, and associated atmospheric properties, to the CO 2 increase. In all five models, the responses of global surface temperature and column water vapour are non-linear and fairly tightly constrained. Thus, global warming lies between 1.9 and 2.7 K at doubled, and between 3.1 and 4.1 K at tripled, CO 2, whilst column water vapour increases by between 3.5 and 4.5 mm at doubled, and between 7 and 8 mm at tripled, CO 2. Global cloud fraction tends to decrease by 1-2% out to tripled CO 2, mainly the result of decreases in low cloud. Global increases in column water, and differences in these increases between models, are mainly determined by the warming of the tropical oceans relative to the middle and high latitudes; these links are emphasised in the zonal profiles of warming and column water vapour increase, with strong water vapour maxima in the tropics. In all models the all-sky shortwave flux to the surface S↓ (global, annual average) changes by less than 5 W m -2 out to tripled CO 2, in some cases being essentially invariant in time. In contrast, the longwave flux to the surface L↓ increases significantly, by 25 W m -2 typically at tripled CO 2. The variations of S↓ and L↓ (clear-sky and all-sky fluxes) with increase in CO 2 concentration are generally non-linear, reflecting the effects of ocean thermal inertia, but as functions of global warming are close to linear in all five models. This is best illustrated for the clear-sky downwelling fluxes, and the net radiation. Regionally, as illustrated in zonal profiles and global distributions, greatest changes in both S↓ and L↓ are the result primarily of local maxima in warming and column water vapour increases.

Boosted nutritional quality of food by CO2 enrichment fails to offset energy demand of herbivores under ocean warming, causing energy depletion and mortality.

PubMed

Leung, Jonathan Y S; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Russell, Bayden D; Ferreira, Camilo M; Connell, Sean D

2018-05-20

The CO 2 -boosted trophic transfer from primary producers to herbivores has been increasingly discovered at natural CO 2 vents and in laboratory experiments. Despite the emerging knowledge of this boosting effect, we do not know the extent to which it may be enhanced or dampened by ocean warming. We investigated whether ocean acidification and warming enhance the nutritional quality (C:N ratio) and energy content of turf algae, which is speculated to drive higher feeding rate, greater energy budget and eventually faster growth of herbivores. This proposal was tested by observing the physiological (feeding rate, respiration rate and energy budget) and demographic responses (growth and survival) of a common grazing gastropod (Phasianella australis) to ocean acidification and warming in a 6-month mesocosm experiment. Whilst we observed the boosting effect of ocean acidification and warming in isolation on the energy budget of herbivores by either increasing feeding rate on the more nutritious algae or increasing energy gain per feeding effort, their growth and survival were reduced by the sublethal thermal stress under ocean warming, especially when both climate change stressors were combined. This reduced growth and survival occurred as a consequence of depleted energy reserves, suggesting that the boosting effect via trophic transfer might not sufficiently compensate for the increased energy demand imposed by ocean warming. In circumstances where ocean acidification and warming create an energy demand on herbivores that outweighs the energy enhancement of their food (i.e. primary producers), the performance of herbivores to control their blooming resources likely deteriorates and thus runaway primary production ensues. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

2012-01-01

Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

PubMed

Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

2012-09-04

Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.

The Ocean's Vital Skin: Toward an Integrated Understanding of the Sea Surface Microlayer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, Anja; Bange, Hermann W.; Cunliffe, Michael

Despite the huge extent of the ocean’s surface, until now relatively little attention has been paid to the sea surface microlayer (SML) as the ultimate interface where heat, momentum and mass exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere takes place. Via the SML, large-scale environmental changes in the ocean such as warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and eutrophication potentially influence cloud formation, precipitation, and the global radiation balance. Due to the deep connectivity between biological, chemical, and physical processes, studies of the SML may reveal multiple sensitivities to global and regional changes. Understanding the processes at the ocean’s surface, in particular involvingmore » the SML as an important and determinant interface, could therefore provide an essential contribution to the reduction of uncertainties regarding ocean-climate feedbacks. This review identifies gaps in our current knowledge of the SML and highlights a need to develop a holistic and mechanistic understanding of the diverse biological, chemical, and physical processes occurring at the ocean-atmosphere interface. We advocate the development of strong interdisciplinary expertise and collaboration in order to bridge between ocean and atmospheric sciences. Although this will pose significant methodological challenges, such an initiative would represent a new role model for interdisciplinary research in Earth System sciences.« less

The Ocean's Vital Skin: Toward an Integrated Understanding of the Sea Surface Microlayer

DOE PAGES

Engel, Anja; Bange, Hermann W.; Cunliffe, Michael; ...

2017-05-30

Despite the huge extent of the ocean’s surface, until now relatively little attention has been paid to the sea surface microlayer (SML) as the ultimate interface where heat, momentum and mass exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere takes place. Via the SML, large-scale environmental changes in the ocean such as warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and eutrophication potentially influence cloud formation, precipitation, and the global radiation balance. Due to the deep connectivity between biological, chemical, and physical processes, studies of the SML may reveal multiple sensitivities to global and regional changes. Understanding the processes at the ocean’s surface, in particular involvingmore » the SML as an important and determinant interface, could therefore provide an essential contribution to the reduction of uncertainties regarding ocean-climate feedbacks. This review identifies gaps in our current knowledge of the SML and highlights a need to develop a holistic and mechanistic understanding of the diverse biological, chemical, and physical processes occurring at the ocean-atmosphere interface. We advocate the development of strong interdisciplinary expertise and collaboration in order to bridge between ocean and atmospheric sciences. Although this will pose significant methodological challenges, such an initiative would represent a new role model for interdisciplinary research in Earth System sciences.« less

North Sea Storm Driving of Extreme Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Ray; Gray, Suzanne; Jones, Oliver

2017-04-01

The relationship between storms and extreme ocean waves in the North sea is assessed using a long-period wave dataset and storms identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). An ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to provide information on the spatial and temporal forcing from mean sea-level pressure and surface wind associated with extreme ocean wave height responses. Extreme ocean waves in the central North Sea arise due to either the winds in the cold conveyor belt (northerly-wind events) or winds in the warm conveyor belt (southerly-wind events) of extratropical cyclones. The largest wave heights are associated with northerly-wind events which tend to have stronger wind speeds and occur as the cold conveyor belt wraps rearwards round the cyclone to the cold side of the warm front. The northerly-wind events also provide a larger fetch to the central North Sea. Southerly-wind events are associated with the warm conveyor belts of intense extratropical storms developing in the right upper-tropospheric jet exit region. There is predictability in the extreme ocean wave events up to two days before the event associated with a strengthening of a high pressure system to the west (northerly-wind events) and south-west (southerly-wind events) of the British Isles. This acts to increase the pressure gradient over the British Isles and therefore drive stronger wind speeds in the central North sea.

Pathways of upwelling deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamsitt, Veronica; Drake, Henri; Morrison, Adele; Talley, Lynne; Dufour, Carolina; Gray, Alison; Griffies, Stephen; Mazloff, Matthew; Sarmiento, Jorge; Wang, Jinbo; Weijer, Wilbert

2017-04-01

Upwelling of Atlantic, Indian and Pacific deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. Here we go beyond the two-dimensional view of Southern Ocean upwelling, to show detailed Southern Ocean upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle tracking in high-resolution ocean and climate models. The northern deep waters enter the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) via narrow southward currents along the boundaries of the three ocean basins, before spiraling southeastward and upward through the ACC. Upwelling is greatly enhanced at five major topographic features, associated with vigorous mesoscale eddy activity. Deep water reaches the upper ocean predominantly south of the southern ACC boundary, with a spatially nonuniform distribution, regionalizing warm water supply to Antarctic ice shelves and the delivery of nutrient and carbon-rich water to the sea surface. The timescale for half of the deep water to upwell from 30°S to the mixed layer is on the order of 60-90 years, which has important implications for the timescale for signals to propagate through the deep ocean. In addition, we quantify the diabatic transformation along particle trajectories, to identify where diabatic processes are important along the upwelling pathways.

Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

PubMed

Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

2012-12-01

An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Greenhouse conditions induce mineralogical changes and dolomite accumulation in coralline algae on tropical reefs

PubMed Central

Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Nash, Merinda C.; Anthony, Kenneth R.N.; Bender, Dorothea; Opdyke, Bradley N.; Reyes-Nivia, Catalina; Troitzsch, Ulrike

2014-01-01

Human-induced ocean acidification and warming alter seawater carbonate chemistry reducing the calcification of reef-building crustose coralline algae (CCA), which has implications for reef stability. However, due to the presence of multiple carbonate minerals with different solubilities in seawater, the algal mineralogical responses to changes in carbonate chemistry are poorly understood. Here we demonstrate a 200% increase in dolomite concentration in living CCA under greenhouse conditions of high pCO2 (1,225 μatm) and warming (30 °C). Aragonite, in contrast, increases with lower pCO2 (296 μatm) and low temperature (28 °C). Mineral changes in the surface pigmented skeleton are minor and dolomite and aragonite formation largely occurs in the white crust beneath. Dissolution of high-Mg-calcite and particularly the erosive activities of endolithic algae living inside skeletons play key roles in concentrating dolomite in greenhouse treatments. As oceans acidify and warm in the future, the relative abundance of dolomite in CCA will increase. PMID:24518160

The impacts of intense moisture transport on the deep and marginal sea-ice zones of the Arctic during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo

2015-04-01

Over the past few decades observations have shown that the Arctic is warming at a much faster rate than the global average; a phenomenon know as polar amplification. This tendency for the high latitudes to warm at a disproportionate rate compared to the global average is also a robust feature of global climate model simulations and highlights the importance of climate research in this region. The most often cited mechanism explaining polar amplification is the ice-albedo feed-back; a mechanism by which the surface albedo decreases as sea ice retreats in response to a warming climate. This in turn leads to a higher absorption of insolation and the melting of more ice. In recent years the role of the ice-albedo feedback mechanism as the main cause of polar amplification has been brought into question. GCM studies show a slight reduction of the total poleward energy transport in a warming climate; with the dry static component decreasing at a much faster rate than the moist component. This repartitioning of the poleward energy transport has implications for the formation of clouds in the Arctic, which induce a secondary warming by trapping escaping OLR. These cloud processes in the atmosphere can explain at least part of the recent temperature amplification in the Arctic; and indeed even aquaplanet model studies with zero sea-ice reproduce the polar amplification phenomenon. Directionally, the ice-albedo feedback is a "bottom-up" process; inducing warming in the atmosphere from an increasing surface heat source i.e. more open ocean. The opening of more ocean surface is also consistent with the bottom amplified structure of warming in the Arctic. Here we present evidence for a mechanism in the atmosphere that matches with observations, but in fact acts the opposite direction i.e. "top-down", whereby moist air masses from lower latitudes, termed "moisture intrusions", travelling over the sea-ice increase the longwave down radiation and in turn induce a bottom amplified warming at the surface. There are an average of 14 such events that enter the polar cap each winter, driving about 50% of the seasonal variation in surface temperature over the deep Arctic. We show that, over the last 30 years, the marginal ice-zones in the Barents, Labrador and Chukchi Seas have experienced roughly a doubling in the frequency of these intense moisture intrusion events during winter. Interestingly, these are the regions that have experienced the most rapid wintertime ice loss in the Arctic, raising the question: to what extent has the recent Arctic warming been driven by local vs. interannual/remote processes?

Shallow ocean response to tropical cyclones observed on the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bing; Hou, Yijun; Hu, Po; Liu, Ze; Liu, Yahao

2015-05-01

Based on observed temperature and velocity in 2005 in northwestern South China Sea, the shallow ocean responses to three tropical cyclones were examined. The oceanic response to Washi was similar to common observations with 2°C cooling of the ocean surface and slight warming of the thermocline resulted from vertical entrainment. Moreover, the wavefield was dominated by first mode near-inertial oscillations, which were red-shifted and trapped by negative background vorticity leading to an e-folding timescale of 12 days. The repeated reflections by the surface and bottom boundaries were thought to yield the successive emergence of higher modes. The oceanic responses to Vicente appeared to be insignificant with cooling of the ocean surface by only 0.5°C and near-inertial currents no larger than 0.10 m/s as a result of a deepened surface mixed layer. However, the oceanic responses to Typhoon Damrey were drastic with cooling of 4.5°C near the surface and successive barotropic-like near-inertial oscillations. During the forced stage, the upper ocean heat content decreased conspicuously by 11.65% and the stratification was thoroughly destroyed by vertical mixing. In the relaxation stage, the water particle had vertical displacement of 20-30 m generated by inertial pumping. The current response to Damrey was weaker than Washi due to the deepened mixed layer and the destroyed stratification. Our results suggested that the shallow water oceanic responses to tropical cyclones varied significantly with the intensity of tropical cyclones, and was affected by local stratification and background vorticity.

Mechanisms underlying recent decadal changes in subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, Christopher G.; Ponte, Rui M.; Little, Christopher M.; Buckley, Martha W.; Fukumori, Ichiro

2017-09-01

The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004-2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994-2004 to cooling over 2005-2015. This recent decadal trend reversal in SPNA ocean heat content (OHC) is studied using a physically consistent, observationally constrained global ocean state estimate covering 1992-2015. The estimate's physical consistency facilitates quantitative causal attribution of ocean variations. Closed heat budget diagnostics reveal that the SPNA OHC trend reversal is the result of heat advection by midlatitude ocean circulation. Kinematic decompositions reveal that changes in the deep and intermediate vertical overturning circulation cannot account for the trend reversal, but rather ocean heat transports by horizontal gyre circulations render the primary contributions. The shift in horizontal gyre advection reflects anomalous circulation acting on the mean temperature gradients. Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) reveals strong covariation between the anomalous horizontal gyre circulation and variations in the local wind stress curl, suggestive of a Sverdrup response. Results have implications for decadal predictability.

A more productive, but different, ocean after mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, Jasmin G.; Stock, Charles A.; Dunne, John P.

2015-11-01

Reversibility studies suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after mitigation, raising the question of whether a similar lag is likely for marine net primary production (NPP). Here we assess NPP reversibility with a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcings are applied out to 2100 and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon-climate Earth System Model. In contrast to the temperature lag, we find a rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an overshoot to values above contemporary means. The enhanced NPP arises from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and continued warming in subsurface waters, which weakens upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nitrate. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as persistent silicate depletion results in increased prevalence of large, non-diatom phytoplankton.

Southern Hemisphere and deep-sea warming led deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and tropical warming.

PubMed

Stott, Lowell; Timmermann, Axel; Thunell, Robert

2007-10-19

Establishing what caused Earth's largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by approximately 2 degrees C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical-surface-ocean warming by approximately 1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming.

Possible impact of global warming and ocean acidification on underwater sound in northern oceans: another perfect storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browning, David

2011-04-01

The greatest ocean pH change, which will result in lower low frequency sound attenuation, is predicted for higher latitudes. Here shallow sound channel axies exist, allowing the impact on sound to be seen sooner and also more extensively since the principal propagation paths will be near the surface. However, at the same time, higher wind speeds and greater ice breakup,as well as increased ship traffic, could result in higher noise levels. Marine mammals in this environment may have, on one hand, improving communication conditions but also the possibility of increased background noise.

January 2016 West Antarctic Melt Event: Large Scale Forcing and Local Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromwich, D. H.; Nicolas, J. P.

2017-12-01

A huge surface melt event occurred in January 2016 that affected a large portion of the Ross Ice Shelf and adjacent parts of Marie Byrd Land of West Antarctica. It coincided with one of the strongest El Niño events on record in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The El Niño teleconnection pattern in the South Pacific Ocean favors the advection of warm, moist air into the western part of West Antarctica. At the same time strong westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, captured by the Southern Annular Mode or SAM, were strong before, during, and after the melting episode, and these tend to limit the transport of marine air into the Ross Ice Shelf region. This prominent melt event demonstrates that extensive melting can happen regardless of the state of the SAM when the El Niño forcing is strong. Furthermore, because climate models project more frequent major El Niños in the future with a warming climate, we can expect more major surface melt events in West Antarctica as the 21st century unfolds. The melting event occurred in part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that the ice sheet modeling study of DeConto and Pollard (2016) suggests is prone to collapse as a result of extreme greenhouse warming. This melt event happened while an important field campaign, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), was ongoing in central West Antarctica. The observations collected during this campaign provided unique insight into some of the physical mechanisms governing surface melting in this otherwise data-sparse region. In particular, these observations highlighted the presence of low-level liquid-water clouds, which aided the radiative heating of the snow surface from both shortwave and longwave radiation, reminiscent of summer melting conditions in Greenland. The resulting large flux of energy into the snow pack was reflected in increased satellite microwave brightness temperatures that were used to follow the evolution of the widespread melting.

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Winter ocean-ice interactions under thin sea ice observed by IAOOS platforms during NICE2015:salty surface mixed layer and active basal melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provost, C.; Koenig, Z.; Villacieros-Robineau, N.; Sennechael, N.; Meyer, A.; Lellouche, J. M.; Garric, G.

2016-12-01

IAOOS platforms, measuring physical parameters at the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interface deployed as part of the N-ICE2015 campaign, provide new insights on winter conditions North of Svalbard. The three regions crossed during the drifts, the Nansen Basin, the Sofia Deep and the Svalbard northern continental slope featured distinct hydrographic properties and ice-ocean exchanges. In the Nansen Basin the quiescent warm layer was capped by a stepped halocline (60 and 110 m) and a deep thermocline (110 m). Ice was forming and the winter mixed layer salinity was larger by 0.1 g/kg than previously observed. Over the Svalbard continental slope, the Atlantic Water (AW) was very shallow (20 m from the surface) and extended offshore from the 500 m isobath by a distance of about 70 km, sank along the slope (40 m from the surface) and probably shedded eddies into the Sofia Deep. In the Sofia Deep, relatively warm waters of Atlantic origin extended from 90 m downward. Resulting from different pathways, these waters had a wide range of hydrographic characteristics. Sea-ice melt was widespread over the Svalbard continental slope and ocean-to-ice heat fluxes reached values of 400 Wm-2 (mean of 150 Wm-2 over the continentalslope). Sea-ice melt events were associated with near 12-hour fluctuations in the mixed-layer temperature and salinity corresponding to the periodicity of tides and near-inertial waves potentially generated by winter storms, large barotropic tides over steep topography and/or geostrophic adjustments.

The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

2014-11-01

Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age Signatures in the Distribution of Modern Ocean Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebbie, G.; Huybers, P. J.

2017-12-01

It is well established both that global temperatures have varied overthe last millenium and that the interior ocean reflects surfaceproperties inherited over these timescales. Signatures of theMedieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are thus to be expected in themodern ocean state, though the magnitude of these effects and whetherthey are detectable is unclear. Analysis of changes in temperatureacross those obtained in the 1870s as part of the theH.M.S. Challenger expedition, the 1990s World Ocean CirculationExperiment, and recent Argo observations shows a consistent pattern:the upper ocean and Atlantic have warmed, but the oldest waters inthe deep Pacific appear to have cooled. The implications of pressureeffects on the H.M.S. Challenger thermometers and uncertainties indepth of observations are non-negligible but do not appear tofundamentally alter this pattern. Inversion of the modern hydrographyusing ocean transport estimates derived from passive tracer andradiocarbon observations indicates that deep Pacific cooling could bea vestige of the Medieval Warm Period, and that warming elsewhere reflects thecombined effects of emergence from the Little Ice Age and modernanthropogenic warming. Implications for longterm variations in oceanheat uptake and separating natural and anthropogenic contributions to themodern energy imbalance are discussed.

Ocean N2O Emissions : Recent Global Estimates and Anthropogenically Influenced Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suntharalingam, P.; Buithenuis, E.; Andrews, O.; Le Quere, C.

2016-12-01

Oceanic N2O is produced by microbial activity during organic matter cycling in the subsurface ocean; its production mechanisms display sensitivity to ambient oxygen level. In the oxic ocean, N2O is produced as a byproduct during the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate, mediated by ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archea. N2O is also produced and consumed in sub-oxic and anoxic waters through the action of marine denitrifiers during the multi-step reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen. The oceanic N2O distribution therefore displays significant heterogeneity with background levels of 10-20 nmol/l in the well-oxygenated ocean basins, high concentrations (> 40 nmol/l) in hypoxic waters, and N2O depletion in the core of ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Oceanic N2O emissions are estimated to account for up to a third of the pre-industrial N2O fluxes to the atmosphere, however the natural cycle of ocean N2O has been perturbed in recent decades by inputs of anthropogenically derived nutrient, and by the impacts of climate change. Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (e.g., NOx and NHy from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural fertilizer) enter the ocean via atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, influencing oceanic N2O production via their impact on the marine organic matter cycle. In addition, climate variations associated with surface ocean warming affect oceanic circulation and nutrient transport pathways, influencing marine productivity and the ventilation of oxygen minimum zones. Recent studies have suggested that possible expansion of oceanic OMZs in a warming climate could lead to significant changes in N2O production and fluxes from these regions. We will summarise the current state of knowledge on the ocean N2O budget and net flux to the atmosphere. Recently reported estimates have been based on (i) empirical relationships derived from ocean tracer data (e.g., involving excess N2O and Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) correlations), (ii) ocean biogeochemical models, and (iii) air-sea flux calculations which combine surface ocean N2O measurements with gas-exchange relationships. We will also present results from ongoing ocean biogeochemistry model analyses evaluating the separate influences of climate variation and anthropogenic nutrient inputs on ocean N2O emissions for recent decades.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

PubMed Central

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-01-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-07-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Global temperature change

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

2017-10-01

The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

The formation processes of phytoplankton growth and decline in mesoscale eddies in the western North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yu-Lin; Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Oey, Lie-Yauw; Kodaira, Tsubasa; Huang, Shihming

2017-05-01

In this study, we investigate the processes of phytoplankton growth and decline in mesoscale eddies in the western North Pacific Ocean based on the in situ chlorophyll data obtained from 52 cruises conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency together with idealized numerical simulations. Both the observation and model results suggest that chlorophyll/phytoplankton concentrations are higher in cold than in warm eddies in near-surface water (z > -70 m). In the idealized simulation, the isopycnal movements associated with upwelling/downwelling transport phytoplankton and nutrients to different vertical depths during eddy formation (stage A). Phytoplankton and nutrients in cold eddies is transported toward shallower waters while those in warm eddies move toward deeper waters. In the period after the eddy has formed (stage B), sunlight and initially upwelled nutrients together promote the growth of phytoplankton in cold eddies. Phytoplankton in warm eddies decays due to insufficient sunlight in deeper waters. In stage B, upwelling and downwelling coexist in both warm and cold eddies, contributing nearly equally to vertical displacement. The upwelling/downwelling-induced nitrate flux accounts for a small percentage (˜3%) of the total nitrate flux in stage B. The vertical velocity caused by propagating eddies, therefore, is not the primary factor causing differences in phytoplankton concentrations between stage-B warm and cold eddies.

Contrasting Indian Ocean SST Variability With and Without ENSO Influence: A Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Jin-Yi; Lau, K. M.

2004-01-01

In this study, we perform experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to examine ENSO's influence on the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean. The control experiment includes both the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the ocean model component of the CGCM (the Indo-Pacific Run). The anomaly experiment excludes ENSOs influence by including only the Indian Ocean while prescribing monthly-varying climatological SSTs for the Pacific Ocean (the Indian-Ocean Run). In the Indo-Pacific Run, an oscillatory mode of the Indian Ocean SST variability is identified by a multi-channel singular spectral analysis (MSSA). The oscillatory mode comprises two patterns that can be identified with the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) and a basin-wide warming/cooling mode respectively. In the model, the IOZM peaks about 3-5 months after ENSO reaches its maximum intensity. The basin mode peaks 8 months after the IOZM. The timing and associated SST patterns suggests that the IOZM is related to ENSO, and the basin- wide warming/cooling develops as a result of the decay of the IOZM spreading SST anomalies from western Indian Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean. In contrast, in the Indian-Ocean Run, no oscillatory modes can be identified by the MSSA, even though the Indian Ocean SST variability is characterized by east-west SST contrast patterns similar to the IOZM. In both control and anomaly runs, IOZM-like SST variability appears to be associated with forcings from fluctuations of the Indian monsoon. Our modeling results suggest that the oscillatory feature of the IOZM is primarily forced by ENSO.

The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

2018-01-01

The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.