Documentation for the State Variables Package for the Groundwater-Management Process of MODFLOW-2005 (GWM-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahlfeld, David P.; Barlow, Paul M.; Baker, Kristine M.

2011-01-01

Many groundwater-management problems are concerned with the control of one or more variables that reflect the state of a groundwater-flow system or a coupled groundwater/surface-water system. These system state variables include the distribution of heads within an aquifer, streamflow rates within a hydraulically connected stream, and flow rates into or out of aquifer storage. This report documents the new State Variables Package for the Groundwater-Management Process of MODFLOW-2005 (GWM-2005). The new package provides a means to explicitly represent heads, streamflows, and changes in aquifer storage as state variables in a GWM-2005 simulation. The availability of these state variables makes it possible to include system state in the objective function and enhances existing capabilities for constructing constraint sets for a groundwater-management formulation. The new package can be used to address groundwater-management problems such as the determination of withdrawal strategies that meet water-supply demands while simultaneously maximizing heads or streamflows, or minimizing changes in aquifer storage. Four sample problems are provided to demonstrate use of the new package for typical groundwater-management applications.

Interannual Variability of Ammonia Concentrations over the United States: Sources and Implications for Inorganic Particulate Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiferl, L. D.; Heald, C. L.; Van Damme, M.; Pierre-Francois, C.; Clerbaux, C.

2015-12-01

Modern agricultural practices have greatly increased the emission of ammonia (NH3) to the atmosphere. Recent controls to reduce the emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SOX and NOX) have increased the importance of understanding the role ammonia plays in the formation of surface fine inorganic particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States. In this study, we identify the interannual variability in ammonia concentration, explore the sources of this variability and determine their contribution to the variability in surface PM2.5 concentration. Over the summers of 2008-2012, measurements from the Ammonia Monitoring Network (AMoN) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument show considerable variability in both surface and column ammonia concentrations (+/- 29% and 28% of the mean), respectively. This observed variability is larger than that simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, where meteorology dominates the variability in ammonia and PM2.5 concentrations compared to the changes caused by SOX and NOX reductions. Our initial simulation does not include year-to-year changes in ammonia agricultural emissions. We use county-wide information on fertilizer sales and livestock populations, as well as meteorological variations to account for the interannual variability in agricultural activity and ammonia volatilization. These sources of ammonia emission variability are important for replicating observed variations in ammonia and PM2.5, highlighting how accurate ammonia emissions characterization is central to PM air quality prediction.

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Surface Meteorological Station - Astoria, OR (AST) - Raw Data

DOE Data Explorer

Gottas, Daniel

2017-10-23

A variety of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Bonneville - Raw Data

DOE Data Explorer

McCaffrey, Katherine

2017-10-23

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology and precipitation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Condon - Reviewed Data

DOE Data Explorer

McCaffrey, Katherine

2017-10-23

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Troutdale - Reviewed Data

DOE Data Explorer

Gottas, Daniel

2017-12-11

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Prineville - Raw Data

DOE Data Explorer

McCaffrey, Katherine

2017-10-23

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Troutdale - Raw Data

DOE Data Explorer

Gottas, Daniel

2017-12-11

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Prineville - Reviewed Data

DOE Data Explorer

McCaffrey, Katherine

2017-10-23

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Bonneville - Reviewed Data

DOE Data Explorer

McCaffrey, Katherine

2017-10-23

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology and precipitation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - North Bend, OR (OTH) - Raw Data

DOE Data Explorer

Gottas, Daniel

2017-10-23

A variety of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Condon - Raw Data

DOE Data Explorer

McCaffrey, Katherine

2017-10-23

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - Forks, WA (FKS) - Raw Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gottas, Daniel

A variety of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - Forks, WA (FKS) - Reviewed Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gottas, Daniel

A variety of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Anonymous broadcasting of classical information with a continuous-variable topological quantum code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menicucci, Nicolas C.; Baragiola, Ben Q.; Demarie, Tommaso F.; Brennen, Gavin K.

2018-03-01

Broadcasting information anonymously becomes more difficult as surveillance technology improves, but remarkably, quantum protocols exist that enable provably traceless broadcasting. The difficulty is making scalable entangled resource states that are robust to errors. We propose an anonymous broadcasting protocol that uses a continuous-variable surface-code state that can be produced using current technology. High squeezing enables large transmission bandwidth and strong anonymity, and the topological nature of the state enables local error mitigation.

Variable Structure Control of a Hand-Launched Glider

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Mark R.; Waszak, Martin R.

2005-01-01

Variable structure control system design methods are applied to the problem of aircraft spin recovery. A variable structure control law typically has two phases of operation. The reaching mode phase uses a nonlinear relay control strategy to drive the system trajectory to a pre-defined switching surface within the motion state space. The sliding mode phase involves motion along the surface as the system moves toward an equilibrium or critical point. Analysis results presented in this paper reveal that the conventional method for spin recovery can be interpreted as a variable structure controller with a switching surface defined at zero yaw rate. Application of Lyapunov stability methods show that deflecting the ailerons in the direction of the spin helps to insure that this switching surface is stable. Flight test results, obtained using an instrumented hand-launched glider, are used to verify stability of the reaching mode dynamics.

Tree-Structured Methods for Prediction and Data Visualization

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-18

which variables are most important for predicting smoking abstinence . GUIDE, on the other hand, can model interactions of any order. Fur- ther, it...tree for predicting smoking abstinence after one week of treatment. An observation goes to the left node if and only if the stated condition is...H. E., and Loh, W.-Y. (2009). Which surface atmospheric variable drives the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature over the global ocean

Solar Irradiance Variability is Caused by the Magnetic Activity on the Solar Surface.

PubMed

Yeo, Kok Leng; Solanki, Sami K; Norris, Charlotte M; Beeck, Benjamin; Unruh, Yvonne C; Krivova, Natalie A

2017-09-01

The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solar irradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solar irradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying this assumption has, however, been hampered by the fact that models of solar irradiance variability based on solar surface magnetism have to be calibrated to observed variability. Making use of realistic three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar atmosphere and state-of-the-art solar magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we present a model of total solar irradiance (TSI) that does not require any such calibration. In doing so, the modeled irradiance variability is entirely independent of the observational record. (The absolute level is calibrated to the TSI record from the Total Irradiance Monitor.) The model replicates 95% of the observed variability between April 2010 and July 2016, leaving little scope for alternative drivers of solar irradiance variability at least over the time scales examined (days to years).

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Wasco Airport - Raw Data

DOE Data Explorer

Gottas, Daniel

2017-12-11

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Surface Meteorological Station - ESRL Short Tower, Wasco Airport - Reviewed Data

DOE Data Explorer

Gottas, Daniel

2017-12-11

A diversity of instruments are used to measure various quantities related to meteorology, precipitation, and radiation near the Earth’s surface. Typically, a standard suite of instruments is deployed to monitor meteorological state variables.

Optical Sensing of the Fatigue Damage State of CFRP under Realistic Aeronautical Load Sequences

PubMed Central

Zuluaga-Ramírez, Pablo; Arconada, Álvaro; Frövel, Malte; Belenguer, Tomás; Salazar, Félix

2015-01-01

We present an optical sensing methodology to estimate the fatigue damage state of structures made of carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), by measuring variations on the surface roughness. Variable amplitude loads (VAL), which represent realistic loads during aeronautical missions of fighter aircraft (FALSTAFF) have been applied to coupons until failure. Stiffness degradation and surface roughness variations have been measured during the life of the coupons obtaining a Pearson correlation of 0.75 between both variables. The data were compared with a previous study for Constant Amplitude Load (CAL) obtaining similar results. Conclusions suggest that the surface roughness measured in strategic zones is a useful technique for structural health monitoring of CFRP structures, and that it is independent of the type of load applied. Surface roughness can be measured in the field by optical techniques such as speckle, confocal perfilometers and interferometry, among others. PMID:25760056

Real Time Land-Surface Hydrologic Modeling Over Continental US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houser, Paul R.

1998-01-01

The land surface component of the hydrological cycle is fundamental to the overall functioning of the atmospheric and climate processes. Spatially and temporally variable rainfall and available energy, combined with land surface heterogeneity cause complex variations in all processes related to surface hydrology. The characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of water and energy cycles are critical to improve our understanding of land surface-atmosphere interaction and the impact of land surface processes on climate extremes. Because the accurate knowledge of these processes and their variability is important for climate predictions, most Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers have incorporated land surface schemes in their models. However, errors in the NWP forcing accumulate in the surface and energy stores, leading to incorrect surface water and energy partitioning and related processes. This has motivated the NWP to impose ad hoc corrections to the land surface states to prevent this drift. A proposed methodology is to develop Land Data Assimilation schemes (LDAS), which are uncoupled models forced with observations, and not affected by NWP forcing biases. The proposed research is being implemented as a real time operation using an existing Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (SVATS) model at a 40 km degree resolution across the United States to evaluate these critical science questions. The model will be forced with real time output from numerical prediction models, satellite data, and radar precipitation measurements. Model parameters will be derived from the existing GIS vegetation and soil coverages. The model results will be aggregated to various scales to assess water and energy balances and these will be validated with various in-situ observations.

Carbonate saturation state of surface waters in the Ross Sea and Southern Ocean: controls and implications for the onset of aragonite undersaturation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeJong, H. B.; Dunbar, R. B.; Mucciarone, D. A.; Koweek, D.

2016-02-01

Predicting when surface waters of the Ross Sea and Southern Ocean will become undersaturated with respect to biogenic carbonate minerals is challenging in part due to the lack of baseline high resolution carbon system data. Here we present 1700 surface total alkalinity measurements from the Ross Sea and along a transect between the Ross Sea and southern Chile from the austral autumn (February-March 2013). We calculate the saturation state of aragonite (ΩAr) and calcite (ΩCa) using measured total alkalinity and pCO2. In the Ross Sea and south of the Polar Front, variability in carbonate saturation state (Ω) is mainly driven by algal photosynthesis. Freshwater dilution and calcification have minimal influence on Ω variability. We estimate an early spring surface water ΩAr value of 1.2 for the Ross Sea using a total alkalinity-salinity relationship and historical pCO2 measurements. Our results suggest that the Ross Sea is not likely to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite until the year 2070.

Characterization of the surface wave variability in the California Current region from satellite altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villas Boas, A. B.; Gille, S. T.; Mazloff, M. R.

2016-02-01

Surface gravity waves play a crucial role in upper-ocean dynamics, and they are an important mechanism by which the ocean exchanges energy with the overlying atmosphere. Surface waves are largely wind forced and can also be modulated by ocean currents via nonlinear wave-current interactions, leading to either an amplification or attenuation of the wave amplitude. Even though individual waves cannot be detected by present satellite altimeters, surface waves have the potential to produce a sea-state bias in altimeter measurements and can impact the sea-surface-height spectrum at high wavenumbers or frequencies. Knowing the wave climatology is relevant for the success of future altimeter missions, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT). We analyse the seasonal, intra-annual and interannual variability of significant wave heights retrieved from over two decades of satellite altimeter data and assess the extent to which the variability of the surface wave field in the California Current region is modulated by the local wind and current fields.

Spatial variability in the response of surface-water extent to climate extremes across the Prairie Pothole Region and adjacent Northern Prairie, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderhoof, M.; Lane, C.; McManus, M.; Alexander, L. C.; Christensen, J.

2017-12-01

Surface-water extent, duration and movement will depend not only on climatic inputs but also the relative importance of different hydrologic pathways (e.g., surface storage, infiltration, evapotranspiration, stream outflows). We mapped surface-water extent from historic drought years to historic wet years spanning 1985 - 2015 across eleven Landsat path/rows representing the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie of the United States. The PPR not only experienced a greater surface water extent under median conditions (2.6 times more) relative to the adjacent Northern Prairie, but showed a greater difference between drought and deluge conditions as well (range averaged 8.5 ha surface water km-2 relative to 2.5 ha surface water km-2 for the PPR and Northern Prairie, respectively). To explain the spatial variability in the amount of surface water expansion and contraction we used a two-stage modeling approach. First, surface-water extent was regressed on accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). The slope of surface-water extent to climate inputs (per watershed) was our dependent variable in the second stage. That slope was regressed against independent variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). Stream-connected surface water can leave via stream flow, influencing the rate at which surface-water may leave a location, therefore stream-connected and disconnected surface water were analyzed separately. Stream-connected surface water responded more strongly to wetter climatic conditions (i.e., accumulated) in landscapes with more lakes and less artificial drainage (e.g., ditching, tile drainage). Disconnected surface water responded more strongly to wetter climatic conditions when landscapes contained greater wetland density, fewer streams and a lower predicted rate of infiltration. From these findings, we can expect that the relationship between upstream and downstream waters will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics, and that climate-change related shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have an uneven effect on surface water expansion and contraction across the landscape.

A Catchment-Based Approach to Modeling Land Surface Processes in a GCM. Part 1; Model Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max J.; Ducharne, Agnes; Stieglitz, Marc; Kumar, Praveen

2000-01-01

A new strategy for modeling the land surface component of the climate system is described. The strategy is motivated by an arguable deficiency in most state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs), namely the disproportionately higher emphasis given to the formulation of one-dimensional, vertical physics relative to the treatment of horizontal heterogeneity in surface properties -- particularly subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on runoff generation. The new strategy calls for the partitioning of the continental surface into a mosaic of hydrologic catchments, delineated through analysis of high-resolution surface elevation data. The effective "grid" used for the land surface is therefore not specified by the overlying atmospheric grid. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is related to characteristics of the topography and to three bulk soil moisture variables through a well-established model of catchment processes. This modeled variability allows the partitioning of the catchment into several areas representing distinct hydrological regimes, wherein distinct (regime-specific) evaporation and runoff parameterizations are applied. Care is taken to ensure that the deficiencies of the catchment model in regions of little to moderate topography are minimized.

An examination of the spatial variability of the United States surface water balance using the Budyko relationship for current and projected climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2017-12-01

The spatial variability in the balance between surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for understanding water availability. The Budyko framework suggests that this balance is solely a function of aridity. Observed deviations from this framework for individual watersheds, however, can vary significantly, resulting in uncertainty in using the Budyko framework in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. Here, we model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation into Q and ET using a set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics for 211 near-natural watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. Using a generalized additive model, we found that precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. This ω model applied to the Budyko framework explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of near-natural watersheds. The developed ω model was also used to estimate the entire CONUS surface water balance for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The contemporary CONUS surface water balance compared favorably to more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western US. The Budyko framework using the modeled ω lends itself to an alternative approach for assessing the potential response of catchment water balance to climate change to complement other approaches.

Climatic variability of near-surface turbulent kinetic energy over the United States: implications for fire-weather predications

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bain

2013-01-01

Recent research suggests that high levels of ambient near-surface atmospheric turbulence are often associated with rapid and sometimes erratic wildland fire spread that may eventually lead to large burn areas. Previous research has also examined the feasibility of using near-surface atmospheric turbulent kinetic energy (TKEs) alone or in...

New and Improved GLDAS and NLDAS Data Sets and Data Services at HDISC/NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Mocko, David M.; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, William L.; Vollmer. Bruce

2010-01-01

Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. Generating global fields of these variables, however, is still a challenge. The goal of a land data assimilation system (LDAS)is to ingest satellite-and ground-based observational data products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques, in order to generate optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes data and, thereby, facilitate hydrology and climate modeling, research, and forecast.

A SIMPLE, EFFICIENT SOLUTION OF FLUX-PROFILE RELATIONSHIPS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC SURFACE LAYER

EPA Science Inventory

This note describes a simple scheme for analytical estimation of the surface layer similarity functions from state variables. What distinguishes this note from the many previous papers on this topic is that this method is specifically targeted for numerical models where simplici...

GEWEX Water and Energy Budget Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, J.; Bainto, E.; Masuda, K.; Rodell, Matthew; Rossow, W. B.

2008-01-01

Closing the global water and energy budgets has been an elusive Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment (GEWEX) goal. It has been difficult to gather many of the needed global water and energy variables and processes, although, because of GEWEX, we now have globally gridded observational estimates for precipitation and radiation and many other relevant variables such as clouds and aerosols. Still, constrained models are required to fill in many of the process and variable gaps. At least there are now several atmospheric reanalyses ranging from the early National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalyses to the more recent ERA40 and JRA-25 reanalyses. Atmospheric constraints include requirements that the models state variables remain close to in situ observations or observed satellite radiances. This is usually done by making short-term forecasts from an analyzed initial state; these short-term forecasts provide the next guess, which is corrected by comparison to available observations. While this analysis procedure is likely to result in useful global descriptions of atmospheric temperature, wind and humidity, there is no guarantee that relevant hydroclimate processes like precipitation, which we can observe and evaluate, and evaporation over land, which we cannot, have similar verisimilitude. Alternatively, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), drives uncoupled land surface models with precipitation, surface solar radiation, and surface meteorology (from bias-corrected reanalyses during the study period) to simulate terrestrial states and surface fluxes. Further constraints are made when a tuned water balance model is used to characterize the global runoff observational estimates. We use this disparate mix of observational estimates, reanalyses, GLDAS and calibrated water balance simulations to try to characterize and close global and terrestrial atmospheric and surface water and energy budgets to within 10-20% for long term (1986-1995), large-scale global to regional annual means.

Tuning Nanocrystal Surface Depletion by Controlling Dopant Distribution as a Route Toward Enhanced Film Conductivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staller, Corey M.; Robinson, Zachary L.; Agrawal, Ankit; Gibbs, Stephen L.; Greenberg, Benjamin L.; Lounis, Sebastien D.; Kortshagen, Uwe R.; Milliron, Delia J.

2018-05-01

Electron conduction through bare metal oxide nanocrystal (NC) films is hindered by surface depletion regions resulting from the presence of surface states. We control the radial dopant distribution in tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) NCs as a means to manipulate the NC depletion width. We find in films of ITO NCs of equal overall dopant concentration that those with dopant-enriched surfaces show decreased depletion width and increased conductivity. Variable temperature conductivity data shows electron localization length increases and associated depletion width decreases monotonically with increased density of dopants near the NC surface. We calculate band profiles for NCs of differing radial dopant distributions and, in agreement with variable temperature conductivity fits, find NCs with dopant-enriched surfaces have narrower depletion widths and longer localization lengths than those with dopant-enriched cores. Following amelioration of NC surface depletion by atomic layer deposition of alumina, all films of equal overall dopant concentration have similar conductivity. Variable temperature conductivity measurements on alumina-capped films indicate all films behave as granular metals. Herein, we conclude that dopant-enriched surfaces decrease the near-surface depletion region, which directly increases the electron localization length and conductivity of NC films.

Tuning Nanocrystal Surface Depletion by Controlling Dopant Distribution as a Route Toward Enhanced Film Conductivity.

PubMed

Staller, Corey M; Robinson, Zachary L; Agrawal, Ankit; Gibbs, Stephen L; Greenberg, Benjamin L; Lounis, Sebastien D; Kortshagen, Uwe R; Milliron, Delia J

2018-05-09

Electron conduction through bare metal oxide nanocrystal (NC) films is hindered by surface depletion regions resulting from the presence of surface states. We control the radial dopant distribution in tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) NCs as a means to manipulate the NC depletion width. We find in films of ITO NCs of equal overall dopant concentration that those with dopant-enriched surfaces show decreased depletion width and increased conductivity. Variable temperature conductivity data show electron localization length increases and associated depletion width decreases monotonically with increased density of dopants near the NC surface. We calculate band profiles for NCs of differing radial dopant distributions and in agreement with variable temperature conductivity fits find NCs with dopant-enriched surfaces have narrower depletion widths and longer localization lengths than those with dopant-enriched cores. Following amelioration of NC surface depletion by atomic layer deposition of alumina, all films of equal overall dopant concentration have similar conductivity. Variable temperature conductivity measurements on alumina-capped films indicate all films behave as granular metals. Herein, we conclude that dopant-enriched surfaces decrease the near-surface depletion region, which directly increases the electron localization length and conductivity of NC films.

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Clayson, Carol A.

2012-01-01

The Eastern tropical ocean basins are regions of significant atmosphere-ocean interaction and are important to variability across subseasonal to decadal time scales. The numerous physical processes at play in these areas strain the abilities of coupled general circulation models to accurately reproduce observed upper ocean variability. Furthermore, limitations in the observing system of important terms in the surface temperature balance (e.g., turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, advection) introduce uncertainty into the analyses of processes controlling sea surface temperature variability. This study presents recent efforts to close the surface temperature balance through estimation of the terms in the mixed layer temperature budget using state-of-the-art remotely sensed and model-reanalysis derived products. A set of twelve net heat flux estimates constructed using combinations of radiative and turbulent heat flux products - including GEWEX-SRB, ISCCP-SRF, OAFlux, SeaFlux, among several others - are used with estimates of oceanic advection, entrainment, and mixed layer depth variability to investigate the seasonal variability of ocean surface temperatures. Particular emphasis is placed on how well the upper ocean temperature balance is, or is not, closed on these scales using the current generation of observational and model reanalysis products. That is, the magnitudes and spatial variability of residual imbalances are addressed. These residuals are placed into context within the current uncertainties of the surface net heat fluxes and the role of the mixed layer depth variability in scaling the impact of those uncertainties, particularly in the shallow mixed layers of the Eastern tropical ocean basins.

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

2018-05-01

The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

Groundwater withdrawals under drought: reconciling GRACE and land surface models in the United States High Plains Aquifer

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Advanced Land Surface Models (LSM) offer a powerful tool for studying hydrological variability. Highly managed systems, however, present a challenge for these models, which typically have simplified or incomplete representations of human water use. Here we examine recent groundwater declines in the ...

The spatial-temporal dynamics of open surface water bodies in CONUS during 1984-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Z.; Xiao, X.; Dong, J.; Qin, Y.; Doughty, R.; Menarguez, M.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Open surface water bodies provided 80% of the total water withdrawals in the Contiguous United States (CONUS) in 1985-2010. The inter-annual variability and changing trends of surface water body areas have various impacts on the human society and ecosystems. This study made use of all Landsat 5, 7, and 8 surface reflectance archives ( 370,000 images) during 1984-2016 and a water index- and pixel-based approach to detect and map open surface water bodies in the cloud-based platform of Google Earth Engine. The year-long water body area and annual average water body area were calculated for each of the last 33 years and their inter-annual variations during 1984-2016 were analyzed through anomaly analysis while their changing trends were analyzed through linear regressions. The national annual average water body areas varied from 265,000 to 281,000 km2 during 1984-2016, which is 3% below to 3% above the mean value 274,000 km2. In state level, significant decreasing trends were found in both year-long and annual average water body areas in some states of dry climates in west and southwest U.S., including Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. In comparison, significant increasing trends were found in some states of wet climates in the southeast and north U.S., including Indiana, Ohio, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota. Open surface water body areas in CONUS decreased in relatively dry areas but increased in relatively wet areas. The relationships between open surface water body area variability and climate factors (precipitation, temperature) and human impacts (water exploitation) were also analyzed.

A Stabilizing Feedback Between Cloud Radiative Effects and Greenland Surface Melt: Verification From Multi-year Automatic Weather Station Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zender, C. S.; Wang, W.; van As, D.

2017-12-01

Clouds have strong impacts on Greenland's surface melt through the interaction with the dry atmosphere and reflective surfaces. However, their effects are uncertain due to the lack of in situ observations. To better quantify cloud radiative effects (CRE) in Greenland, we analyze and interpret multi-year radiation measurements from 30 automatic weather stations encompassing a broad range of climatological and topographical conditions. During melt season, clouds warm surface over most of Greenland, meaning the longwave greenhouse effect outweighs the shortwave shading effect; on the other hand, the spatial variability of net (longwave and shortwave) CRE is dominated by shortwave CRE and in turn by surface albedo, which controls the potential absorption of solar radiation when clouds are absent. The net warming effect decreases with shortwave CRE from high to low altitudes and from north to south (Fig. 1). The spatial correlation between albedo and net CRE is strong (r=0.93, p<<0.01). In the accumulation zone, the net CRE seasonal trend is controlled by longwave CRE associated with cloud fraction and liquid water content. It becomes stronger from May to July and stays constant in August. In the ablation zone, albedo determines the net CRE seasonal trend, which decreases from May to July and increases afterwards. On an hourly timescale, we find two distinct radiative states in Greenland (Fig. 2). The clear state is characterized by clear-sky conditions or thin clouds, when albedo and solar zenith angle (SZA) weakly correlates with CRE. The cloudy state is characterized by opaque clouds, when the combination of albedo and SZA strongly correlates with CRE (r=0.85, p<0.01). Although cloud properties intrinsically affect CRE, the large melt-season variability of these two non-cloud factors, albedo and solar zenith angle, explains the majority of the CRE variation in spatial distribution, seasonal trend in the ablation zone, and in hourly variability in the cloudy radiative state. Clouds warm the brighter and colder surfaces of Greenland, enhance snow melt, and tend to lower the albedo. Clouds cool the darker and warmer surfaces, inhibiting snow melt, which increases albedo, and thus stabilizes surface melt. This stabilizing mechanism may also occur over sea ice, helping to forestall surface melt as the Arctic becomes dimmer.

Insights on multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical ocean variables using an Ensemble Kalman Filter and an idealized model of upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Liuqian; Fennel, Katja; Bertino, Laurent; Gharamti, Mohamad El; Thompson, Keith R.

2018-06-01

Effective data assimilation methods for incorporating observations into marine biogeochemical models are required to improve hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of the ocean's biogeochemical state. Recent assimilation efforts have shown that updating model physics alone can degrade biogeochemical fields while only updating biogeochemical variables may not improve a model's predictive skill when the physical fields are inaccurate. Here we systematically investigate whether multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical model states are superior to only updating either physical or biogeochemical variables. We conducted a series of twin experiments in an idealized ocean channel that experiences wind-driven upwelling. The forecast model was forced with biased wind stress and perturbed biogeochemical model parameters compared to the model run representing the "truth". Taking advantage of the multivariate nature of the deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter (DEnKF), we assimilated different combinations of synthetic physical (sea surface height, sea surface temperature and temperature profiles) and biogeochemical (surface chlorophyll and nitrate profiles) observations. We show that when biogeochemical and physical properties are highly correlated (e.g., thermocline and nutricline), multivariate updates of both are essential for improving model skill and can be accomplished by assimilating either physical (e.g., temperature profiles) or biogeochemical (e.g., nutrient profiles) observations. In our idealized domain, the improvement is largely due to a better representation of nutrient upwelling, which results in a more accurate nutrient input into the euphotic zone. In contrast, assimilating surface chlorophyll improves the model state only slightly, because surface chlorophyll contains little information about the vertical density structure. We also show that a degradation of the correlation between observed subsurface temperature and nutrient fields, which has been an issue in several previous assimilation studies, can be reduced by multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical fields.

Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Gray, S.T.; Palecki, M.A.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests a link between drought occurrence in the conterminous United States (US) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in both the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans on decadal to multidecadal (D2M) time scales. Results show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the most consistent indicator of D2M drought variability in the conterminous US during the 20th century, but during the 19th century the tropical Pacific is a more consistent indicator of D2 M drought. The interaction between El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the AMO explain a large part of the D2M drought variability in the conterminous US. More modeling studies are needed to reveal possible mechanisms linking low-frequency ENSO variability and the AMO with drought in the conterminous US. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Surface Soil Moisture in Evaluating Ground Truth Monitoring Sites for Remotely Sensed Observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture is an intrinsic state variable that varies considerably in space and time. Although soil moisture is highly variable, repeated measurements of soil moisture at the field or small watershed scale can often reveal certain locations as being temporally stable and representative of the are...

Color pattern evolution in Vanessa butterflies (Nymphalidae: Nymphalini): non-eyespot characters.

PubMed

Abbasi, Roohollah; Marcus, Jeffrey M

2015-01-01

A phylogenetic approach was used to study color pattern evolution in Vanessa butterflies. Twenty-four color pattern elements from the Nymphalid ground plan were identified on the dorsal and ventral surfaces of the fore- and hind wings. Eyespot characters were excluded and will be examined elsewhere. The evolution of each character was traced over a Bayesian phylogeny of Vanessa reconstructed from 7750 DNA base pairs from 10 genes. Generally, the correspondence between character states on the same surface of the two wings is stronger on the ventral side compared to the dorsal side. The evolution of character states on both sides of a wing correspond with each other in most extant species, but the correspondence between dorsal and ventral character states is much stronger in the forewing than in the hindwing. The dorsal hindwing of many species of Vanessa is covered with an extended Basal Symmetry System and the Discalis I pattern element is highly variable between species, making this wing surface dissimilar to the other wing surfaces. The Basal Symmetry System and Discalis I may contribute to behavioral thermoregulation in Vanessa. Overall, interspecific directional character state evolution of non-eyespot color patterns is relatively rare in Vanessa, with a majority of color pattern elements showing non-variable, non-directional, or ambiguous character state evolution. The ease with which the development of color patterns can be modified, including character state reversals, has likely made important contributions to the production of color pattern diversity in Vanessa and other butterfly groups. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

Sampling saddle points on a free energy surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Amit; Chen, Ming; Yu, Tang-Qing; Tuckerman, Mark; E, Weinan

2014-04-01

Many problems in biology, chemistry, and materials science require knowledge of saddle points on free energy surfaces. These saddle points act as transition states and are the bottlenecks for transitions of the system between different metastable states. For simple systems in which the free energy depends on a few variables, the free energy surface can be precomputed, and saddle points can then be found using existing techniques. For complex systems, where the free energy depends on many degrees of freedom, this is not feasible. In this paper, we develop an algorithm for finding the saddle points on a high-dimensional free energy surface "on-the-fly" without requiring a priori knowledge the free energy function itself. This is done by using the general strategy of the heterogeneous multi-scale method by applying a macro-scale solver, here the gentlest ascent dynamics algorithm, with the needed force and Hessian values computed on-the-fly using a micro-scale model such as molecular dynamics. The algorithm is capable of dealing with problems involving many coarse-grained variables. The utility of the algorithm is illustrated by studying the saddle points associated with (a) the isomerization transition of the alanine dipeptide using two coarse-grained variables, specifically the Ramachandran dihedral angles, and (b) the beta-hairpin structure of the alanine decamer using 20 coarse-grained variables, specifically the full set of Ramachandran angle pairs associated with each residue. For the alanine decamer, we obtain a detailed network showing the connectivity of the minima obtained and the saddle-point structures that connect them, which provides a way to visualize the gross features of the high-dimensional surface.

Estimating North American background ozone in U.S. surface air with two independent global models: Variability, uncertainties, and recommendations

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate estimates for North American background (NAB) ozone (O3) in surface air over the United States are needed for setting and implementing an attainable national O3 standard. These estimates rely on simulations with atmospheric chemistry-transport models that set North Amer...

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Characterizing Mediterranean Land Surfaces as Component of the Regional Climate System by Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolle, H.-J.; Koslowsky, D.; Menenti, M.; Nerry, F.; Otterman, Joseph; Starr, D.

1998-01-01

Extensive areas in the Mediterranean region are subject to land degradation and desertification. The high variability of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere affects the regional climate. Relevant surface characteristics, such as spectral reflectance, surface emissivity in the thermal-infrared region, and vegetation indices, serve as "primary" level indicators for the state of the surface. Their spatial, seasonal and interannual variability can be monitored from satellites. Using relationships between these primary data and combining them with prior information about the land surfaces (such as topography, dominant soil type, land use, collateral ground measurements and models), a second layer of information is built up which specifies the land surfaces as a component of the regional climate system. To this category of parameters which are directly involved in the exchange of energy, momentum and mass between the surface and the atmosphere, belong broadband albedo, thermodynamic surface temperature, vegetation types, vegetation cover density, soil top moisture, and soil heat flux. Information about these parameters finally leads to the computation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The methodology was tested with pilot data sets. Full resolution, properly calibrated and normalized NOAA-AVHRR multi-annual primary data sets are presently compiled for the whole Mediterranean area, to study interannual variability and longer term trends.

The influence of land cover on surface energy partitioning and evaporative fraction regimes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagley, Justin E.; Kueppers, Lara M.; Billesbach, Dave P.; Williams, Ian N.; Biraud, Sébastien C.; Torn, Margaret S.

2017-06-01

Land-atmosphere interactions are important to climate prediction, but the underlying effects of surface forcing of the atmosphere are not well understood. In the U.S. Southern Great Plains, grassland/pasture and winter wheat are the dominant land covers but have distinct growing periods that may differently influence land-atmosphere coupling during spring and summer. Variables that influence surface flux partitioning can change seasonally, depending on the state of local vegetation. Here we use surface observations from multiple sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Climate Research Facility and statistical modeling at a paired grassland/agricultural site within this facility to quantify land cover influence on surface energy balance and variables controlling evaporative fraction (latent heat flux normalized by the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes). We demonstrate that the radiative balance and evaporative fraction are closely related to green leaf area at both winter wheat and grassland/pasture sites and that the early summer harvest of winter wheat abruptly shifts the relationship between evaporative fraction and surface state variables. Prior to harvest, evaporative fraction of winter wheat is strongly influenced by leaf area and soil-atmosphere temperature differences. After harvest, variations in soil moisture have a stronger effect on evaporative fraction. This is in contrast with grassland/pasture sites, where variation in green leaf area has a large influence on evaporative fraction throughout spring and summer, and changes in soil-atmosphere temperature difference and soil moisture are of relatively minor importance.

Does surface roughness dominate biophysical forcing of land use and land cover change in the eastern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burakowski, E. A.; Tawfik, A. B.; Ouimette, A.; Lepine, L. C.; Ollinger, S. V.; Bonan, G. B.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Novick, K. A.

2016-12-01

Changes in land use, land cover, or both promote changes in surface temperature that can amplify or dampen long-term trends driven by natural and anthropogenic climate change by modifying the surface energy budget, primarily through differences in albedo, evapotranspiration, and aerodynamic roughness. Recent advances in variable resolution global models provide the tools necessary to investigate local and global impacts of land use and land cover change by embedding a high-resolution grid over areas of interest in a seamless and computationally efficient manner. Here, we used two eddy covariance tower clusters in the Eastern US (University of New Hampshire UNH and Duke Forest) to validate simulation of surface energy fluxes and properties by the uncoupled Community Land Model (PTCLM4.5) and coupled land-atmosphere Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM1.3). Surface energy fluxes and properties are generally well captured by the models for grassland sites, however forested sites tend to underestimate latent heat and overestimate sensible heat flux. Surface roughness emerged as the dominant biophysical forcing factor affecting surface temperature in the eastern United States, generally leading to warmer nighttime temperatures and cooler daytime temperatures. However, the sign and magnitude of the roughness effect on surface temperature was highly sensitive to the calculation of aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer.

Watershed Scale Analysis of Groundwater Surface Water Interactions and Its Application to Conjunctive Management under Climatic and Anthropogenic Stresses over the US Sunbelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Seung Beom

Although water is one of the most essential natural resources, human activities have been exerting pressure on water resources. In order to reduce these stresses on water resources, two key issues threatening water resources sustainability - interaction between surface water and groundwater resources and groundwater withdrawal impacts of streamflow depletion - were investigated in this study. First, a systematic decomposition procedure was proposed for quantifying the errors arising from various sources in the model chain in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes using near-term climate change projections. Apart from the unexplained changes by GCMs, the process of customizing GCM projections to watershed scale through a model chain - spatial downscaling, temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model - also introduces errors, thereby limiting the ability to explain the observed changes in hydrologic variability. Towards this, we first propose metrics for quantifying the errors arising from different steps in the model chain in explaining the observed changes in hydrologic variables (streamflow, groundwater). The proposed metrics are then evaluated using a detailed retrospective analyses in projecting the changes in streamflow and groundwater attributes in four target basins that span across a diverse hydroclimatic regimes over the US Sunbelt. Our analyses focused on quantifying the dominant sources of errors in projecting the changes in eight hydrologic variables - mean and variability of seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 3-day peak seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 7-day low seasonal streamflow and mean and standard deviation of groundwater depth - over four target basins using an Penn state Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) between the period 1956-1980 and 1981-2005. Retrospective analyses show that small/humid (large/arid) basins show increased (reduced) uncertainty in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes. Further, changes in error due to GCMs primarily account for the unexplained changes in mean and variability of seasonal streamflow. On the other hand, the changes in error due to temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model account for the inability to explain the observed changes in mean and variability of seasonal extremes. Thus, the proposed metrics provide insights on how the error in explaining the observed changes being propagated through the model under different hydroclimatic regimes. To understand interaction between surface water and groundwater resources, transient pumping impacts on streamflow and groundwater level were analyzed by imposing shortterm pumping scenarios under historic drought conditions. Since surface water and groundwater systems are fully coupled and integrated systems, increased groundwater withdrawal during drought may reduce baseflow into the stream and prolong both systems' recovery from drought. Towards this, we proposed an uncertainty framework to understand the resiliency of groundwater and surface water systems using a fully-coupled hydrologic model under transient pumping. Using this framework, we quantified the restoration time of surface water and groundwater systems and also estimated the changes in the state variables after pumping. Groundwater pumping impacts over the watershed were also analyzed under different pumping volumes and different potential climate scenarios. Our analyses show that groundwater restoration time is more sensitive to changes in pumping volumes as opposed to changes in climate. After the cessation of pumping, streamflow recovers quickly in comparison to groundwater. Pumping impacts on other state variables are also discussed. Given that surface water and groundwater are inter-connected, optimal management of the both resources should be considered to improve the watershed resiliency under drought. Subsequently, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater has been considered as an effective approach to mitigate water shortage problems that are primarily caused by a drought. It is found that appropriate use of groundwater withdrawal was able to reduce water scarcity in surface water resources in drought condition. Besides, recovery time constraint was embedded in the management model so that trade-off between minimizing water scarcity and maximizing sustainability on groundwater was successfully addressed.

Electrical characterizations of MIS structures based on variable-gap n(p)-HgCdTe grown by MBE on Si(0 1 3) substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voitsekhovskii, A. V.; Nesmelov, S. N.; Dzyadukh, S. M.; Varavin, V. S.; Dvoretskii, S. A.; Mikhailov, N. N.; Yakushev, M. V.; Sidorov, G. Yu.

2017-12-01

Metal-insulator-semiconductor (MIS) structures based on n(p)-Hg1-xCdxTe (x = 0.22-0.40) with near-surface variable-gap layers were grown by the molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) technique on the Si (0 1 3) substrates. Electrical properties of MIS structures were investigated experimentally at various temperatures (9-77 K) and directions of voltage sweep. The ;narrow swing; technique was used to determine the spectra of fast surface states with the exception of hysteresis effects. It is established that the density of fast surface states at the MCT/Al2O3 interface at a minimum does not exceed 3 × 1010 eV-1 × cm-2. For MIS structures based on n-MCT/Si(0 1 3), the differential resistance of the space-charge region in strong inversion mode in the temperature range 50-90 K is limited by the Shockley-Read-Hall generation in the space-charge region.

Surface thermodynamics, surface stress, equations at surfaces and triple lines for deformable bodies.

PubMed

Olives, Juan

2010-03-03

The thermodynamics and mechanics of the surface of a deformable body are studied here, following and refining the general approach of Gibbs. It is first shown that the 'local' thermodynamic variables of the state of the surface are only the temperature, the chemical potentials and the surface strain tensor (true thermodynamic variables, for a viscoelastic solid or a viscous fluid). A new definition of the surface stress is given and the corresponding surface thermodynamics equations are presented. The mechanical equilibrium equation at the surface is then obtained. It involves the surface stress and is similar to the Cauchy equation for the volume. Its normal component is a generalization of the Laplace equation. At a (body-fluid-fluid) triple contact line, two equations are obtained, which represent: (i) the equilibrium of the forces (surface stresses) for a triple line fixed on the body; (ii) the equilibrium relative to the motion of the line with respect to the body. This last equation leads to a strong modification of Young's classical capillary equation.

Rivers and Floodplains as Key Components of Global Terrestrial Water Storage Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getirana, Augusto; Kumar, Sujay; Girotto, Manuela; Rodell, Matthew

2017-10-01

This study quantifies the contribution of rivers and floodplains to terrestrial water storage (TWS) variability. We use state-of-the-art models to simulate land surface processes and river dynamics and to separate TWS into its main components. Based on a proposed impact index, we show that surface water storage (SWS) contributes 8% of TWS variability globally, but that contribution differs widely among climate zones. Changes in SWS are a principal component of TWS variability in the tropics, where major rivers flow over arid regions and at high latitudes. SWS accounts for 22-27% of TWS variability in both the Amazon and Nile Basins. Changes in SWS are negligible in the Western U.S., Northern Africa, Middle East, and central Asia. Based on comparisons with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-based TWS, we conclude that accounting for SWS improves simulated TWS in most of South America, Africa, and Southern Asia, confirming that SWS is a key component of TWS variability.

The North Atlantic Ocean Is in a State of Reduced Overturning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeed, D. A.; Josey, S. A.; Beaulieu, C.; Johns, W. E.; Moat, B. I.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Meinen, C. S.; Baringer, M. O.; Bryden, H. L.; McCarthy, G. D.

2018-02-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for a variable and climatically important northward transport of heat. Using data from an array of instruments that span the Atlantic at 26°N, we show that the AMOC has been in a state of reduced overturning since 2008 as compared to 2004-2008. This change of AMOC state is concurrent with other changes in the North Atlantic such as a northward shift and broadening of the Gulf Stream and altered patterns of heat content and sea surface temperature. These changes resemble the response to a declining AMOC predicted by coupled climate models. Concurrent changes in air-sea fluxes close to the western boundary reveal that the changes in ocean heat transport and sea surface temperature have altered the pattern of ocean-atmosphere heat exchange over the North Atlantic. These results provide strong observational evidence that the AMOC is a major factor in decadal-scale variability of North Atlantic climate.

Nonlinear dynamics in the perceptual grouping of connected surfaces.

PubMed

Hock, Howard S; Schöner, Gregor

2016-09-01

Evidence obtained using the dynamic grouping method has shown that the grouping of an object's connected surfaces has properties characteristic of a nonlinear dynamical system. When a surface's luminance changes, one of its boundaries is perceived moving across the surface. The direction of this dynamic grouping (DG) motion indicates which of two flanking surfaces has been grouped with the changing surface. A quantitative measure of overall grouping strength (affinity) for adjacent surfaces is provided by the frequency of DG motion perception in directions promoted by the grouping variables. It was found that: (1) variables affecting surface grouping for three-surface objects evolve over time, settling at stable levels within a single fixation, (2) how often DG motion is perceived when a surface's luminance is perturbed (changed) depends on the pre-perturbation affinity state of the surface grouping, (3) grouping variables promoting the same surface grouping combine cooperatively and nonlinearly (super-additively) in determining the surface grouping's affinity, (4) different DG motion directions during different trials indicate that surface grouping can be bistable, which implies that inhibitory interactions have stabilized one of two alternative surface groupings, and (5) when alternative surface groupings have identical affinity, stochastic fluctuations can break the symmetry and inhibitory interactions can then stabilize one of the surface groupings, providing affinity levels are not too high (which results in bidirectional DG motion). A surface-grouping network is proposed within which boundaries vary in salience. Low salience or suppressed boundaries instantiate surface grouping, and DG motion results from changes in boundary salience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental-scale distributions of dust-associated bacteria and fungi

PubMed Central

Barberán, Albert; Ladau, Joshua; Pollard, Katherine S.; Menninger, Holly L.; Dunn, Robert R.; Fierer, Noah

2015-01-01

It has been known for centuries that microorganisms are ubiquitous in the atmosphere, where they are capable of long-distance dispersal. Likewise, it is well-established that these airborne bacteria and fungi can have myriad effects on human health, as well as the health of plants and livestock. However, we have a limited understanding of how these airborne communities vary across different geographic regions or the factors that structure the geographic patterns of near-surface microbes across large spatial scales. We collected dust samples from the external surfaces of ∼1,200 households located across the United States to understand the continental-scale distributions of bacteria and fungi in the near-surface atmosphere. The microbial communities were highly variable in composition across the United States, but the geographic patterns could be explained by climatic and soil variables, with coastal regions of the United States sharing similar airborne microbial communities. Although people living in more urbanized areas were not found to be exposed to distinct outdoor air microbial communities compared with those living in more rural areas, our results do suggest that urbanization leads to homogenization of the airborne microbiota, with more urban communities exhibiting less continental-scale geographic variability than more rural areas. These results provide our first insight into the continental-scale distributions of airborne microbes, which is information that could be used to identify likely associations between microbial exposures in outdoor air and incidences of disease in crops, livestock, and humans. PMID:25902536

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-01

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.

PubMed

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO's cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

Variable curvature mirror having variable thickness: design and fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hui; Xie, Xiaopeng; Xu, Liang; Ding, Jiaoteng; Shen, Le; Gong, Jie

2017-10-01

Variable curvature mirror (VCM) can change its curvature radius dynamically and is usually used to correct the defocus and spherical aberration caused by thermal lens effect to improve the output beam quality of high power solid-state laser. Recently, the probable application of VCM in realizing non-moving element optical zoom imaging in visible band has been paid much attention. The basic requirement for VCM lies in that it should provide a large enough saggitus variation and still maintains a high enough surface figure at the same time. Therefore in this manuscript, by combing the pressurization based actuation with a variable thickness mirror design, the purpose of obtaining large saggitus variation and maintaining quite good surface figure accuracy at the same time could be achieved. A prototype zoom mirror with diameter of 120mm and central thickness of 8mm is designed, fabricated and tested. Experimental results demonstrate that the zoom mirror having an initial surface figure accuracy superior to 1/80λ could provide bigger than 36um saggitus variation and after finishing the curvature variation its surface figure accuracy could still be superior to 1/40λ with the spherical aberration removed, which proves that the effectiveness of the theoretical design.

Electrowetting-driven variable-focus microlens on flexible surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chenhui; Jiang, Hongrui

2012-06-01

We demonstrate a flexible, electrowetting-driven, variable-focus liquid microlens. The microlens is fabricated using a soft polymer polydimethylsiloxane. The lens can be smoothly wrapped onto a curved surface. A low-temperature fabrication process was developed to reduce the stress on and to avoid any damage to the polymer. The focal length of the microlens varies between -15.0 mm to +28.0 mm, depending on the applied voltage. The resolving power of the microlens is 25.39 line pairs per mm using a 1951 United States Air Force resolution chart. The typical response time of the lens is around 50 ms.

Thermal annealing induced the tunable optical properties of silver thin films with linear variable thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Ruijin; Shao, Wen; Ji, Jialin; Tao, Chunxian; Zhang, Dawei

2018-06-01

Silver thin films with linear variable thickness were deposited at room temperature. The corresponding tunability of optical properties and Raman scattering intensity were realized by thermal annealing process. With the thickness increasing, the topography of as-annealed silver thin films was observed to develop from discontinued nanospheres into continuous structure with a redshift of the surface plasmon resonance wavelength in visible region. Both the various nanosphere sizes and states of aggregation of as-annealed silver thin films contributed to significantly increasing the sensitivity of surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS).

Efficient Approaches for Propagating Hydrologic Forcing Uncertainty: High-Resolution Applications Over the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, J.; Turmon, M.; David, C. H.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.

2017-12-01

NASA's Western States Water Mission (WSWM) combines remote sensing of the terrestrial water cycle with hydrological models to provide high-resolution state estimates for multiple variables. The effort includes both land surface and river routing models that are subject to several sources of uncertainty, including errors in the model forcing and model structural uncertainty. Computational and storage constraints prohibit extensive ensemble simulations, so this work outlines efficient but flexible approaches for estimating and reporting uncertainty. Calibrated by remote sensing and in situ data where available, we illustrate the application of these techniques in producing state estimates with associated uncertainties at kilometer-scale resolution for key variables such as soil moisture, groundwater, and streamflow.

Sensitivity of Land Surface Parameters on Thunderstorm Simulation through HRLDAS-WRF Coupling Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Dinesh; Kumar, Krishan; Mohanty, U. C.; Kisore Osuri, Krishna

2016-07-01

Land surface characteristics play an important role in large scale, regional and mesoscale atmospheric process. Representation of land surface characteristics can be improved through coupling of mesoscale atmospheric models with land surface models. Mesoscale atmospheric models depend on Land Surface Models (LSM) to provide land surface variables such as fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum for lower boundary layer evolution. Studies have shown that land surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, soil roughness, vegetation cover, have considerable effect on lower boundary layer. Although, the necessity to initialize soil moisture accurately in NWP models is widely acknowledged, monitoring soil moisture at regional and global scale is a very tough task due to high spatial and temporal variability. As a result, the available observation network is unable to provide the required spatial and temporal data for the most part of the globe. Therefore, model for land surface initializations rely on updated land surface properties from LSM. The solution for NWP land-state initialization can be found by combining data assimilation techniques, satellite-derived soil data, and land surface models. Further, it requires an intermediate step to use observed rainfall, satellite derived surface insolation, and meteorological analyses to run an uncoupled (offline) integration of LSM, so that the evolution of modeled soil moisture can be forced by observed forcing conditions. Therefore, for accurate land-state initialization, high resolution land data assimilation system (HRLDAS) is used to provide the essential land surface parameters. Offline-coupling of HRLDAS-WRF has shown much improved results over Delhi, India for four thunder storm events. The evolution of land surface variables particularly soil moisture, soil temperature and surface fluxes have provided more realistic condition. Results have shown that most of domain part became wetter and warmer after assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature at the initial condition which helped to improve the exchange fluxes at lower atmospheric level. Mixing ratio were increased along with elevated theta-e at lower level giving a signature of improvement in LDAS experiment leading to a suitable condition for convection. In the analysis, moisture convergence, mixing ratio and vertical velocities have improved significantly in terms of intensity and time lag. Surface variables like soil moisture, soil temperature, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux have progressed in a possible realistic pattern. Above discussion suggests that assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature improves the overall simulations significantly.

Physical associations to spring phytoplankton biomass interannual variability in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Rebuck, Nathan D.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Kahru, Mati; Fogarty, Michael J.

2015-02-01

The continental shelf of the Northeast United States and Nova Scotia is a productive marine ecosystem that supports a robust biomass of living marine resources. Understanding marine ecosystem sensitivity to changes in the physical environment can start with the first-order response of phytoplankton (i.e., chlorophyll a), the base of the marine food web. However, the primary physical associations to the interannual variability of chlorophyll a in these waters are unclear. Here we used ocean color satellite measurements and identified the local and remote physical associations to interannual variability of spring surface chlorophyll a from 1998 to 2013. The highest interannual variability of chlorophyll a occurred in March and April on the northern flank of Georges Bank, the western Gulf of Maine, and Nantucket Shoals. Complex interactions between winter wind speed over the Shelf, local winter water levels, and the relative proportions of Atlantic versus Labrador Sea source waters entering the Gulf of Maine from the previous summer/fall were associated with the variability of March/April chlorophyll a in Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity were not robust correlates to spring chlorophyll a. Surface nitrate in the winter was not a robust correlate to chlorophyll a or the physical variables in every case suggesting that nitrate limitation may not be the primary constraint on the interannual variability of the spring bloom throughout all regions. Generalized linear models suggest that we can resolve 88% of March chlorophyll a interannual variability in Georges Bank using lagged physical data.

State-specific enhancement of Cl+ and Cl- desorption for SiCl4 adsorbed on a Si(100) surface following Cl 2 p and Si 2 p core-level excitations.

PubMed

Chen, J M; Lu, K T

2001-04-02

State-specific desorption for SiCl4 adsorbed on a Si(100) surface at approximately 90 K with variable coverage following the Cl 2p and Si 2p core-level excitations has been investigated using synchrotron radiation. The Cl+ yields show a significant enhancement following the Cl 2p-->8a*1 excitation. The Cl- yields are notably enhanced at the 8a*1 resonance at both Cl 2p and Si 2p edges. The enhancement of the Cl- yield occurs through the formation of highly excited states of the adsorbed molecules. These results provide some new dissociation processes from adsorbates on surfaces via core-level excitation.

Kalman filters for assimilating near-surface observations in the Richards equation - Part 2: A dual filter approach for simultaneous retrieval of states and parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, H.; Romano, N.; Chirico, G. B.

2012-12-01

We present a dual Kalman Filter (KF) approach for retrieving states and parameters controlling soil water dynamics in a homogenous soil column by using near-surface state observations. The dual Kalman filter couples a standard KF algorithm for retrieving the states and an unscented KF algorithm for retrieving the parameters. We examine the performance of the dual Kalman Filter applied to two alternative state-space formulations of the Richards equation, respectively differentiated by the type of variable employed for representing the states: either the soil water content (θ) or the soil matric pressure head (h). We use a synthetic time-series series of true states and noise corrupted observations and a synthetic time-series of meteorological forcing. The performance analyses account for the effect of the input parameters, the observation depth and the assimilation frequency as well as the relationship between the retrieved states and the assimilated variables. We show that the identifiability of the parameters is strongly conditioned by several factors, such as the initial guess of the unknown parameters, the wet or dry range of the retrieved states, the boundary conditions, as well as the form (h-based or θ-based) of the state-space formulation. State identifiability is instead efficient even with a relatively coarse time-resolution of the assimilated observation. The accuracy of the retrieved states exhibits limited sensitivity to the observation depth and the assimilation frequency.

Spatial variability of shortwave radiative fluxes in the context of snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinker, Rachel T.; Ma, Yingtao; Hinkelman, Laura; Lundquist, Jessica

2014-05-01

Snow-covered mountain ranges are a major source of water supply for run-off and groundwater recharge. Snowmelt supplies as much as 75% of surface water in basins of the western United States. Factors that affect the rate of snow melt include incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, surface albedo, snow emissivity, snow surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, ground heat flux, and energy transferred to the snowpack from deposited snow or rain. The net radiation generally makes up about 80% of the energy balance and is dominated by the shortwave radiation. Complex terrain poses a great challenge for obtaining the needed information on radiative fluxes from satellites due to elevation issues, spatially-variable cloud cover, rapidly changing surface conditions during snow fall and snow melt, lack of high quality ground truth for evaluation of the satellite based estimates, as well as scale issues between the ground observations and the satellite footprint. In this study we utilize observations of high spatial resolution (5-km) as available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) to derive surface shortwave radiative fluxes in complex terrain, with attention to the impact of slopes on the amount of radiation received. The methodology developed has been applied to several water years (January to July during 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2009) over the western part of the United States, and the available information was used to derive metrics on spatial and temporal variability in the shortwave fluxes. It is planned to apply the findings from this study for testing improvements in Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) estimates.

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use change and sensitivity to snow and interannual albedo variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, Christopher A.; Roy, David P.

2010-01-01

Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm−2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm−2) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm−2) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.

Influence of the Surface and Cloud Nonuniformities in the Solar Energy Fluxes in the Arctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozwadowska, A.; Cahalan, R. F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Solar energy fluxes reaching the surface and absorbed by it are basic components of the energy balance of the Arctic. They depend mainly on the solar zenith angle, a state of the atmosphere, especially the cloudiness, and the surface albedo. However, they can also be modified by variabilities in the surface albedo and cloud optical thickness. The surface of the Arctic can be highly nonuniform. The surface of the Arctic Ocean, which covers the huge part of the Arctic can be view as a mosaic of sea water, sea ice, snow and, in the melting period, melting ponds. In our paper, results are presented of Monte Carlo simulations of the expected influence of nonuniform cloud structure and nonuniform surface albedo on radiative fluxes at the Arctic surface. In particular, the plane parallel biases in the surface absorptance and atmospheric transmittance are studied. The bias is defined as the difference between the real absorptance or transmittance (i.e. nonuniform conditions) averaged over a given area, and the uniform or plane parallel case with the same mean cloud optical thickness and the same mean surface albedo. The dependence of the biases is analysed with respect to the following: domain averaged values of the cloud optical thickness and surface albedo, scales of their spatial variabilities, correlation between cloud optical thickness and cloud albedo variabilities, cloud height, and the solar zenith angle. Ranges of means and standard deviations of the input parameters typical of Arctic conditions are obtained from the SHEBA experiment.

An investigation of the observability of ocean-surface parameters using GEOS-3 backscatter data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, L. S.; Priester, R. W.

1978-01-01

The degree to which ocean surface roughness can be synoptically observed through use of the information extracted from the GEOS-3 backscattered waveform data was evaluated. Algorithms are given for use in estimating the radar sensed waveheight distribution or ocean-surface impulse response. Other factors discussed include comparisons between theoretical and experimental radar cross section values, sea state bias effects, spatial variability of significant waveheight data, and sensor-related considerations.

Characterization of the Deep Water Surface Wave Variability in the California Current Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villas Bôas, Ana B.; Gille, Sarah T.; Mazloff, Matthew R.; Cornuelle, Bruce D.

2017-11-01

Surface waves are crucial for the dynamics of the upper ocean not only because they mediate exchanges of momentum, heat, energy, and gases between the ocean and the atmosphere, but also because they determine the sea state. The surface wave field in a given region is set by the combination of local and remote forcing. The present work characterizes the seasonal variability of the deep water surface wave field in the California Current region, as retrieved from over two decades of satellite altimetry data combined with wave buoys and wave model hindcast (WaveWatch III). In particular, the extent to which the local wind modulates the variability of the significant wave height, peak period, and peak direction is assessed. During spring/summer, regional-scale wind events of up to 10 m/s are the dominant forcing for waves off the California coast, leading to relatively short-period waves (8-10 s) that come predominantly from the north-northwest. The wave climatology throughout the California Current region shows average significant wave heights exceeding 2 m during most of the year, which may have implications for the planning and retrieval methods of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission.

Surface quantum oscillations and weak antilocalization effect in topological insulator (Bi0.3Sb0.7)2Te3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urkude, Rajashri; Rawat, Rajeev; Palikundwar, Umesh

2018-04-01

In 3D topological insulators, achieving a genuine bulk-insulating state is an important topic of research. The material system (Bi,Sb)2(Te,Se)3 has been proposed as a topological insulator with high resistivity and low carrier concentration. Topological insulators are predicted to present interesting surface transport phenomena but their experimental studies have been hindered by metallic bulk conduction that overwhelms the surface transport. Here we present a study of the bulk-insulating properties of (Bi0.3Sb0.7)2Te3. We show that a high resistivity exceeding 1 Ωm as a result of variable-range hopping behavior of state and Shubnikov-de Haas oscillations as coming from the topological surface state. We have been able to clarify both the bulk and surface transport channels, establishing a comprehensive understanding of the transport properties in this material. Our results demonstrate that (Bi0.3Sb0.7)2Te3 is a good material for studying the surface quantum transport in a topological insulator.

From metadynamics to dynamics.

PubMed

Tiwary, Pratyush; Parrinello, Michele

2013-12-06

Metadynamics is a commonly used and successful enhanced sampling method. By the introduction of a history dependent bias which depends on a restricted number of collective variables it can explore complex free energy surfaces characterized by several metastable states separated by large free energy barriers. Here we extend its scope by introducing a simple yet powerful method for calculating the rates of transition between different metastable states. The method does not rely on a previous knowledge of the transition states or reaction coordinates, as long as collective variables are known that can distinguish between the various stable minima in free energy space. We demonstrate that our method recovers the correct escape rates out of these stable states and also preserves the correct sequence of state-to-state transitions, with minimal extra computational effort needed over ordinary metadynamics. We apply the formalism to three different problems and in each case find excellent agreement with the results of long unbiased molecular dynamics runs.

From Metadynamics to Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwary, Pratyush; Parrinello, Michele

2013-12-01

Metadynamics is a commonly used and successful enhanced sampling method. By the introduction of a history dependent bias which depends on a restricted number of collective variables it can explore complex free energy surfaces characterized by several metastable states separated by large free energy barriers. Here we extend its scope by introducing a simple yet powerful method for calculating the rates of transition between different metastable states. The method does not rely on a previous knowledge of the transition states or reaction coordinates, as long as collective variables are known that can distinguish between the various stable minima in free energy space. We demonstrate that our method recovers the correct escape rates out of these stable states and also preserves the correct sequence of state-to-state transitions, with minimal extra computational effort needed over ordinary metadynamics. We apply the formalism to three different problems and in each case find excellent agreement with the results of long unbiased molecular dynamics runs.

Surface Water and Energy Budgets for Sub-Saharan Africa in GFDL Coupled Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Wood, E. F.; Vecchi, G. A.; Jia, L.; Pan, M.

2015-12-01

This study compare surface water and energy budget variables from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) FLOR models with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (PGF), and PGF-driven Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model outputs, as well as available observations over the sub-Saharan Africa. The comparison was made for four configurations of the FLOR models that included FLOR phase 1 (FLOR-p1) and phase 2 (FLOR-p2) and two phases of flux adjusted versions (FLOR-FA-p1 and FLOR-FA-p2). Compared to p1, simulated atmospheric states in p2 were nudged to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The seasonal cycle and annual mean of major surface water (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and change of storage) and energy variables (sensible heat, ground heat, latent heat, net solar radiation, net longwave radiation, and skin temperature) over a 34-yr period during 1981-2014 were compared in different regions in sub-Saharan Africa (West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa). In addition to evaluating the means in three sub-regions, empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analyses were conducted to compare both spatial and temporal characteristics of water and energy budget variables from four versions of GFDL FLOR, NCEP CFSR, PGF, and VIC outputs. This presentation will show how well each coupled climate model represented land surface physics and reproduced spatiotemporal characteristics of surface water and energy budget variables. We discuss what caused differences in surface water and energy budgets in land surface components of coupled climate model, climate reanalysis, and reanalysis driven land surface model. The comparisons will reveal whether flux adjustment and nudging would improve depiction of the surface water and energy budgets in coupled climate models.

Inter comparison of Tropical Indian Ocean features in different ocean reanalysis products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmakar, Ananya; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2017-09-01

This study makes an inter comparison of ocean state of the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in different ocean reanalyses such as global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS), ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA), ocean reanalysis system 4 (ORAS4) and simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) with reference to the in-situ buoy observations, satellite observed sea surface temperature (SST), EN4 analysis and ocean surface current analysis real time (OSCAR). Analysis of mean state of SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals that ORAS4 is better comparable with satellite observations as well as EN4 analysis, and is followed by SODA, ECDA and GODAS. The surface circulation in ORAS4 is closer to OSCAR compared to the other reanalyses. However mixed layer depth (MLD) is better simulated by SODA, followed by ECDA, ORAS4 and GODAS. Seasonal evolution of error indicates that the highest deviation in SST and MLD over the TIO exists during spring and summer in GODAS. Statistical analysis with concurrent data of EN4 for the period of 1980-2010 supports that the difference and standard deviation (variability strength) ratio for SSS and MLD is mostly greater than one. In general the strength of variability is overestimated by all the reanalyses. Further comparison with in-situ buoy observations supports that MLD errors over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and the Bay of Bengal are higher than with EN4 analysis. Overall ORAS4 displays higher correlation and lower error among all reanalyses with respect to both EN4 analysis and buoy observations. Major issues in the reanalyses are the underestimation of upper ocean stability in the TIO, underestimation of surface current in the EIO, overestimation of vertical shear of current and improper variability in different oceanic variables. To improve the skill of reanalyses over the TIO, salinity vertical structure and upper ocean circulation need to be better represented in reanalyses.

Equatorial oceanography. [review of research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Sarachik, E. S.

1983-01-01

United States progress in equatorial oceanography is reviewed, focusing on the low frequency response of upper equatorial oceans to forcing by the wind. Variations of thermocline depth, midocean currents, and boundary currents are discussed. The factors which determine sea surface temperature (SST) variability in equatorial oceans are reviewed, and the status of understanding of the most spectacular manifestation of SST variability, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is discussed. The problem of observing surface winds, regarded as a fundamental factor limiting understanding of the equatorial oceans, is addressed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify those current trends which are expected to bear fruit in the near and distant future.

Electrowetting-driven variable-focus microlens on flexible surfaces.

PubMed

Li, Chenhui; Jiang, Hongrui

2012-06-04

We demonstrate a flexible, electrowetting-driven, variable-focus liquid microlens. The microlens is fabricated using a soft polymer polydimethylsiloxane. The lens can be smoothly wrapped onto a curved surface. A low-temperature fabrication process was developed to reduce the stress on and to avoid any damage to the polymer. The focal length of the microlens varies between -15.0 mm to +28.0 mm, depending on the applied voltage. The resolving power of the microlens is 25.39 line pairs per mm using a 1951 United States Air Force resolution chart. The typical response time of the lens is around 50 ms.

Electrowetting-driven variable-focus microlens on flexible surfaces

PubMed Central

Li, Chenhui; Jiang, Hongrui

2012-01-01

We demonstrate a flexible, electrowetting-driven, variable-focus liquid microlens. The microlens is fabricated using a soft polymer polydimethylsiloxane. The lens can be smoothly wrapped onto a curved surface. A low-temperature fabrication process was developed to reduce the stress on and to avoid any damage to the polymer. The focal length of the microlens varies between −15.0 mm to +28.0 mm, depending on the applied voltage. The resolving power of the microlens is 25.39 line pairs per mm using a 1951 United States Air Force resolution chart. The typical response time of the lens is around 50 ms. PMID:22904571

Concentration and saturation effects of tethered polymer chains on adsorbing surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descas, Radu; Sommer, Jens-Uwe; Blumen, Alexander

2006-12-01

We consider end-grafted chains at an adsorbing surface under good solvent conditions using Monte Carlo simulations and scaling arguments. Grafting of chains allows us to fix the surface concentration and to study a wide range of surface concentrations from the undersaturated state of the surface up to the brushlike regime. The average extension of single chains in the direction parallel and perpendicular to the surface is analyzed using scaling arguments for the two-dimensional semidilute surface state according to Bouchaud and Daoud [J. Phys. (Paris) 48, 1991 (1987)]. We find good agreement with the scaling predictions for the scaling in the direction parallel to the surface and for surface concentrations much below the saturation concentration (dense packing of adsorption blobs). Increasing the grafting density we study the saturation effects and the oversaturation of the adsorption layer. In order to account for the effect of excluded volume on the adsorption free energy we introduce a new scaling variable related with the saturation concentration of the adsorption layer (saturation scaling). We show that the decrease of the single chain order parameter (the fraction of adsorbed monomers on the surface) with increasing concentration, being constant in the ideal semidilute surface state, is properly described by saturation scaling only. Furthermore, the simulation results for the chains' extension from higher surface concentrations up to the oversaturated state support the new scaling approach. The oversaturated state can be understood using a geometrical model which assumes a brushlike layer on top of a saturated adsorption layer. We provide evidence that adsorbed polymer layers are very sensitive to saturation effects, which start to influence the semidilute surface scaling even much below the saturation threshold.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J

2017-03-07

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Quantifying the Hydrologic Effect of Climate Variability in the Lower Colorado Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switanek, M.; Troch, P. A.

2007-12-01

Regional climate patterns are driven in large part by ocean states and associated atmospheric circulations, but modified through feedbacks from land surface conditions. The latter defines the climate elasticity of a river basin. Many regions that lie between semi-arid and semi-humid zones with seasonal rainfall, for instance, experience prolonged periods of wet and dry spells. Understanding the triggers that bring a river basin from one state (e.g. wet period of late 90s in the Colorado basin) abruptly to another state (multi-year drought initiated in 2001 to present) is what motivates the present study. Our research methodology investigates the causes of regional climate variability and its effect on hydrologic response. By correlating, using different monthly time lags, sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressures (SLP) with basin averaged precipitation and surface temperature, we determine the most influential regions of the Pacific Ocean on lower Colorado climate variability. Using the most correlated data for each month, we derive precipitation and temperature distributions under similar conditions to that of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We compare the distributions of the climatic data, given ENSO constraints on SST and SLP, to the distributions considering non-ENSO years. Finally, we use observed stream flows and climatic data to determine the basin's climate elasticity. This allows us to quantitatively translate the predicted regional climate effects of ENSO on hydrologic response. Our presentation will use data for the Little Colorado as an example to demonstrate the procedure and produce preliminary results.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

PubMed Central

Mickley, Loretta J.

2017-01-01

We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region. PMID:28223483

NFLUX PRE: Validation of New Specific Humidity, Surface Air Temperature, and Wind Speed Algorithms for Ascending/Descending Directions and Clear or Cloudy Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-18

providing all three surface state variables: TA, QA, and U10. It flies as part of the “A-Train” afternoon constellation (see http://atrain.nasa.gov...Chao (2006). Rainfall Estimation of Mesoscale Convective Systems using AMSU-A data during the Mei-Yu Season . Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 17, 91-109

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; ...

2016-10-25

Emergence of significant changes in surface water PDF is detected across CONUS. Such emergence can be derived using global temperature increments at the national scale independent of emission scenarios but the relationship does not hold at sub-basin scale. The emergence of significant changes are due to changes in interannual variability rather than seasonal mean.

Combined effects of heat waves and droughts on avian communities across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Brian D. Wardlow; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Volker C. Radeloff

2010-01-01

Increasing surface temperatures and climatic variability associated with global climate change are expected to produce more frequent and intense heat waves and droughts in many parts of the world. Our goal was to elucidate the fundamental, but poorly understood, effects of these extreme weather events on avian communities across the conterminous United States....

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE PAGES

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; ...

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

Ocean heat content variability in an ensemble of twentieth century ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boisséson, Eric; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Mayer, Michael

2017-08-01

This paper presents a ten-member ensemble of twentieth century Ocean ReAnalyses called ORA-20C. ORA-20C assimilates temperature and salinity profiles and is forced by the ECMWF twentieth century atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-20C) over the 1900-2010 period. This study attempts to identify robust signals of ocean heat content change in ORA-20C and detect contamination by model errors, initial condition uncertainty, surface fluxes and observing system changes. It is shown that ORA-20C trends and variability in the first part of the century result from the surface fluxes and model drift towards a warmer mean state and weak meridional overturning circulation. The impact of the observing system in correcting the mean state causes the deceleration of the warming trend and alters the long-term climate signal. The ensemble spread reflects the long-lasting memory of the initial conditions and the convergence of the system to a solution compatible with surface fluxes, the ocean model and observational constraints. Observations constrain the ocean heat uptake trend in the last decades of the twentieth century, which is similar to trend estimations from the post-satellite era. An ocean heat budget analysis attributes ORA-20C heat content changes to surface fluxes in the first part of the century. The heat flux variability reflects spurious signals stemming from ERA-20C surface fields, which in return result from changes in the atmospheric observing system. The influence of the temperature assimilation increments on the heat budget is growing with time. Increments control the most recent ocean heat uptake signals, highlighting imbalances in forced reanalysis systems in the ocean as well as in the atmosphere.

Surface atrial frequency analysis in patients with atrial fibrillation: a tool for evaluating the effects of intervention.

PubMed

Raine, Dan; Langley, Philip; Murray, Alan; Dunuwille, Asunga; Bourke, John P

2004-09-01

The aims of this study were to evaluate (1) principal component analysis as a technique for extracting the atrial signal waveform from the standard 12-lead ECG and (2) its ability to distinguish changes in atrial fibrillation (AF) frequency parameters over time and in response to pharmacologic manipulation using drugs with different effects on atrial electrophysiology. Twenty patients with persistent AF were studied. Continuous 12-lead Holter ECGs were recorded for 60 minutes, first, in the drug-free state. Mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency were measured using an automated computer technique. This extracted the atrial signal by principal component analysis and identified the main frequency component using Fourier analysis. Patients were then allotted sequentially to receive 1 of 4 drugs intravenously (amiodarone, flecainide, sotalol, or metoprolol), and changes induced in mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency measured. Mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency did not differ within patients between the two 30-minute sections of the drug-free state. As hypothesized, significant changes in mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency were detected after manipulation with amiodarone (mean: 5.77 vs 4.86 Hz; variability: 0.55 vs 0.31 Hz), flecainide (mean: 5.33 vs 4.72 Hz; variability: 0.71 vs 0.31 Hz), and sotalol (mean: 5.94 vs 4.90 Hz; variability: 0.73 vs 0.40 Hz) but not with metoprolol (mean: 5.41 vs 5.17 Hz; variability: 0.81 vs 0.82 Hz). A technique for continuously analyzing atrial frequency characteristics of AF from the surface ECG has been developed and validated.

Locally driven interannual variability of near-surface pH and ΩA in the Strait of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore-Maley, Ben L.; Allen, Susan E.; Ianson, Debby

2016-03-01

Declines in mean ocean pH and aragonite saturation state (ΩA) driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions have raised concerns regarding the trends of pH and ΩA in estuaries. Low pH and ΩA can be harmful to a variety of marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate shells, and so may threaten the productive ecosystems and commercial fisheries found in many estuarine environments. The Strait of Georgia is a large, temperate, productive estuarine system with numerous wild and aquaculture shellfish and finfish populations. We determine the seasonality and variability of near-surface pH and ΩA in the Strait using a one-dimensional, biophysical, mixing layer model. We further evaluate the sensitivity of these quantities to local wind, freshwater, and cloud forcing by running the model over a wide range of scenarios using 12 years of observations. Near-surface pH and ΩA demonstrate strong seasonal cycles characterized by low pH, aragonite-undersaturated waters in winter and high pH, aragonite-supersaturated waters in summer. The aragonite saturation horizon generally lies at ˜20 m depth except in winter and during strong Fraser River freshets when it shoals to the surface. Periods of strong interannual variability in pH and aragonite saturation horizon depth arise in spring and summer. We determine that at different times of year, each of wind speed, freshwater flux, and cloud fraction are the dominant drivers of this variability. These results establish the mechanisms behind the emerging observations of highly variable near-surface carbonate chemistry in the Strait.

A Method for Partitioning Surface and Subsurface Flow Using Rainfall Simulaton and Two-Dimensional Surface Electrical Resistivity Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, A. M.; Paige, G. B.; Miller, S. N.; Carr, B. J.; Holbrook, W. S.

2014-12-01

In semi-arid rangeland environments understanding how surface and subsurface flow processes and their interactions are influenced by watershed and rainfall characteristics is critical. However, it is difficult to resolve the temporal variations between mechanisms controlling these processes and challenging to obtain field measurements that document their interactions. Better insight into how these complex systems respond hydrologically is necessary in order to refine hydrologic models and decision support tools. We are conducting field studies integrating high resolution, two-dimensional surface electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) with variable intensity rainfall simulation, to quantify real-time partitioning of rainfall into surface and subsurface response. These studies are being conducted at the hillslope scale on long-term runoff plots on four different ecological sites in the Upper Crow Creek Watershed in southeastern Wyoming. Variable intensity rainfall rates were applied using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator in which intensities were increased incrementally from 49 to 180 mm hr-1 and steady-state runoff rates for each intensity were measured. Two 13.5 m electrode arrays at 0.5 m spacing were positioned on the surface perpendicular to each plot and potentials were measured at given time intervals prior to, during and following simulations using a dipole-dipole array configuration. The configuration allows for a 2.47 m depth of investigation in which magnitude and direction of subsurface flux can be determined. We used the calculated steady state infiltration rates to quantify the variability in the partial area runoff response on the ecological sites. Coupling this information with time-lapse difference inversions of ERI data, we are able to track areas of increasing and decreasing resistivity in the subsurface related to localized areas of infiltration during and following rainfall events. We anticipate implementing this method across a variety of ecological sites in the Upper Crow Creek in order to characterize the variable hydrologic response of this complex rangeland watershed. This information is being used to refine current physically based hydrologic models and watershed assessment tools.

Using present day observations to detect when ocean acidification exceeds natural variability of surface seawater Ωaragonite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.

2016-02-01

One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is the need to better understand the magnitude of long-term change in the context of natural variability. High-frequency moored observations can be highly effective in defining interannual, seasonal, and subseasonal variability at key locations. Here we present monthly aragonite saturation state (Ωaragonite) climatology for 15 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater pCO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2009. We then use these present day surface mooring observations to estimate pre-industrial variability at each location and compare these results to previous modeling studies addressing global-scale variability and change. Our observations suggest that open oceans sites, especially in the subtropics, are experiencing Ωaragonite values throughout much of the year which are outside the range of pre-industrial values. In coastal and coral reef ecosystems, which have higher natural variability, seasonal patterns where present day Ωaragonite values exceeding pre-industrial bounds are emerging with some sites exhibiting subseasonal conditions approaching Ωaragonite = 1. Linking these seasonal patterns in carbonate chemistry to biological processes in these regions is critical to identify when and where marine life may encounter Ωaragonite values outside the conditions to which they have adapted.

Internal state variable plasticity-damage modeling of AISI 4140 steel including microstructure-property relations: temperature and strain rate effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nacif el Alaoui, Reda

Mechanical structure-property relations have been quantified for AISI 4140 steel. under different strain rates and temperatures. The structure-property relations were used. to calibrate a microstructure-based internal state variable plasticity-damage model for. monotonic tension, compression and torsion plasticity, as well as damage evolution. Strong stress state and temperature dependences were observed for the AISI 4140 steel. Tension tests on three different notched Bridgman specimens were undertaken to study. the damage-triaxiality dependence for model validation purposes. Fracture surface. analysis was performed using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to quantify the void. nucleation and void sizes in the different specimens. The stress-strain behavior exhibited. a fairly large applied stress state (tension, compression dependence, and torsion), a. moderate temperature dependence, and a relatively small strain rate dependence.

2D problems of surface growth theory with applications to additive manufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzhirov, A. V.; Mikhin, M. N.

2018-04-01

We study 2D problems of surface growth theory of deformable solids and their applications to the analysis of the stress-strain state of AM fabricated products and structures. Statements of the problems are given, and a solution method based on the approaches of the theory of functions of a complex variable is suggested. Computations are carried out for model problems. Qualitative and quantitative results are discussed.

Recombination reactions of 5-eV O(3P) atoms on a MgF2 surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orient, O. J.; Chutjian, A.; Murad, E.

1990-01-01

A source of hyperthermal, ground-state, impurity-free, atomic oxygen of an energy variable in the range 2-100 eV has been developed. Experimental results are presented of emission spectra in the wavelength range 250-850 nm produced by collisions of 5-eV O(3P) atoms with adsorbed NO and CO molecules on a MgF2 surface.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Surface Energy Fluxes During Autumn Ice Advance: Observations and Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, O. P. G.; Blomquist, B.; Grachev, A. A.; Guest, P. S.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Capotondi, A.; Fairall, C. W.; Intrieri, J. M.

2016-12-01

From Oct 4 to Nov 5, 2015, the Office of Naval Research - sponsored Sea State cruise in the Beaufort Sea with the new National Science Foundation R/V Sikuliaq obtained extensive in-situ and remote sensing observations of the lower troposphere, the advancing sea ice, wave state, and upper ocean conditions. In addition, a coupled atmosphere, sea ice, upper-ocean model, based on the RASM model, was run at NOAA/PSD in a hindcast mode for this same time period, providing a 10-day simulation of the atmosphere/ice/ocean evolution. Surface energy fluxes quantitatively represent the air-ice, air-ocean, and ice-ocean interaction processes, determining the cooling (warming) rate of the upper ocean and the growth (melting) rate of sea ice. These fluxes also impact the stratification of the lower troposphere and the upper ocean. In this presentation, both direct and indirect measurements of the energy fluxes during Sea State will be used to explore the spatial and temporal variability of these fluxes and the impacts of this variability on the upper ocean, ice, and lower atmosphere during the autumn ice advance. Analyses have suggested that these fluxes are impacted by atmospheric synoptic evolution, proximity to existing ice, ice-relative wind direction, ice thickness and snow depth. In turn, these fluxes impact upper-ocean heat loss and timing of ice formation, as well as stability in the lower troposphere and upper ocean, and hence heat transport to the free troposphere and ocean mixed-layer. Therefore, the atmospheric structure over the advancing first-year ice differs from that over the nearby open water. Finally, these observational analyses will be used to provide a preliminary validation of the spatial and temporal variability of the surface energy fluxes and the associated lower-tropospheric and upper-ocean structures in the simulations.

Spatial structure and scaling of macropores in hydrological process at small catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silasari, Rasmiaditya; Broer, Martine; Blöschl, Günter

2013-04-01

During rainfall events, the formation of overland flow can occur under the circumstances of saturation excess and/or infiltration excess. These conditions are affected by the soil moisture state which represents the soil water content in micropores and macropores. Macropores act as pathway for the preferential flows and have been widely studied locally. However, very little is known about their spatial structure and conductivity of macropores and other flow characteristic at the catchment scale. This study will analyze these characteristics to better understand its importance in hydrological processes. The research will be conducted in Petzenkirchen Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), a 64 ha catchment located 100 km west of Vienna. The land use is divided between arable land (87%), pasture (5%), forest (6%) and paved surfaces (2%). Video cameras will be installed on an agricultural field to monitor the overland flow pattern during rainfall events. A wireless soil moisture network is also installed within the monitored area. These field data will be combined to analyze the soil moisture state and the responding surface runoff occurrence. The variability of the macropores spatial structure of the observed area (field scale) then will be assessed based on the topography and soil data. Soil characteristics will be supported with laboratory experiments on soil matrix flow to obtain proper definitions of the spatial structure of macropores and its variability. A coupled physically based distributed model of surface and subsurface flow will be used to simulate the variability of macropores spatial structure and its effect on the flow behaviour. This model will be validated by simulating the observed rainfall events. Upscaling from field scale to catchment scale will be done to understand the effect of macropores variability on larger scales by applying spatial stochastic methods. The first phase in this study is the installation and monitoring configuration of video cameras and soil moisture monitoring equipment to obtain the initial data of overland flow occurrence and soil moisture state relationships.

Can We Control Contaminant Transport In Hydrologic Networks? Application Of Control Theory Concepts To Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeghiazarian, L.; Riasi, M. S.

2016-12-01

Although controlling the level of contamination everywhere in the surface water network may not be feasible, it is vital to maintain safe water quality levels in specific areas, e.g. recreational waters. The question then is "what is the most efficient way to fully/partially control water quality in surface water networks?". This can be posed as a control problem where the goal is to efficiently drive the system to a desired state by manipulating few input variables. Such problems reduce to (1) finding the best control locations in the network to influence the state of the system; and (2) choosing the time-variant inputs at the control locations to achieve the desired state of the system with minimum effort. We demonstrate that the optimal solution to control the level of contamination in the network can be found through application of control theory concepts to transport in dendritic surface water networks.

Characterization of extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Belyaev, Konstantin

2017-04-01

Extreme ocean-atmosphere turbulent fluxes play a critical role in the convective processes in the mid and subpolar latitudes and may also affect a variety of atmospheric processes, such as generation and re-intensification of extreme cyclones in the areas of the mid latitude storm tracks. From the ocean dynamics perspective, specifically for quantifying extreme vertical mixing, characterization of the extreme fluxes requires, besides estimation of the extreme events, also consideration of the relative extremeness of surface fluxes and their timing, e.g. the duration of periods of high surface fluxes. In order to comprehensively characterize extreme turbulent fluxes at sea surface we propose a formalism based upon probability density distributions of surface turbulent fluxes and flux-related variables. Individual absolute flux extremes were derived using Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution of turbulent fluxes. Then, we extend this distribution to the fractional distribution, characterizing the fraction of time-integrated turbulent heat flux provided by the fluxes exceeding a given percentile. Finally, we consider the time durations during which fluxes of a given intensity provide extreme accumulations of heat loss from the surface. For estimation of these characteristics of surface fluxes we use fluxes recomputed from the state variables available from modern era reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR) for the period from 1979 onwards. Applications of the formalism to the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) - based surface fluxes are also considered. We discuss application of the new metrics of mesoscale and synoptic variability of surface fluxes to the dynamics of mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic.

Variability in goethite surface site density: evidence from proton and carbonate sorption.

PubMed

Villalobos, Mario; Trotz, Maya A; Leckie, James O

2003-12-15

Goethite is a representative iron oxide in natural environments due to its abundance and thermodynamic stability and may be responsible for many surface-mediated processes, including ion retention and mobility in aqueous settings. A large variability in morphologies and specific surface areas of goethite crystals exists but little work has been done to compare surface reactivity between them. The present work offers experimental evidence for the existence of an inverse relationship between sorption capacity for protons and carbonate ions and specific surface area of goethite for three synthetic goethite preparations spanning surface area differences by a factor of 2. An explanation for this was found by assuming a variable reactive site density between preparations in direct relationship to their sorption capacity based on congruency of carbonate sorption computed on a per-site basis. Previous evidence of maximum sorption capacities supports this explanation, and site density ratios between the goethites studied here were obtained. Triple layer surface complexation modeling was successful in describing adsorption data for all goethite preparations using equal stoichiometries. A new formulation of standard state for activities of surface species based on a 1.0 mole fraction of sites on the solid allowed transformation of the conventional molar concentration-based affinity constants to values based on site occupancy. In this fashion, by applying the appropriate site density ratios, a single set of affinity constant values was found that described accurately the adsorption data for all preparations.

Impact of atmospheric forcing on heat content variability in the sub-surface layer in the Japan/East Sea, 1948-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry; Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay

2016-04-01

Based on numerical simulations the study investigates impact of atmospheric forcing on heat content variability of the sub-surface layer in Japan/East Sea (JES), 1948-2009. We developed a model configuration based on a INMOM model and atmospheric forcing extracted from the CORE phase II experiment dataset 1948-2009, which enables to assess impact of only atmospheric forcing on heat content variability of the sub-surface layer of the JES. An analysis of kinetic energy (KE) and total heat content (THC) in the JES obtained from our numerical simulations showed that the simulated circulation of the JES is being quasi-steady state. It was found that the year-mean KE variations obtained from our numerical simulations are similar those extracted from the SODA reanalysis. Comparison of the simulated THC and that extracted from the SODA reanalysis showed significant consistence between them. An analysis of numerical simulations showed that the simulated circulation structure is very similar that obtained from the PALACE floats in the intermediate and abyssal layers in the JES. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis we studied spatial-temporal variability of the heat content of the sub-surface layer in the JES. Based on comparison of the simulated heat content variations with those obtained from natural observations an assessment of the atmospheric forcing impact on the heat content variability was obtained. Using singular value decomposition analysis we considered relationships between the heat content variability and wind stress curl as well as sensible heat flux in winter. It was established the major role of sensible heat flux in decadal variability of the heat content of the sub-surface layer in the JES. The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant N 14-05-00255) and the Council on the Russian Federation President Grants (grant N MK-3241.2015.5)

Thermodynamics of manganese oxides: Sodium, potassium, and calcium birnessite and cryptomelane

PubMed Central

Birkner, Nancy; Navrotsky, Alexandra

2017-01-01

Manganese oxides with layer and tunnel structures occur widely in nature and inspire technological applications. Having variable compositions, these structures often are found as small particles (nanophases). This study explores, using experimental thermochemistry, the role of composition, oxidation state, structure, and surface energy in the their thermodynamic stability. The measured surface energies of cryptomelane, sodium birnessite, potassium birnessite and calcium birnessite are all significantly lower than those of binary manganese oxides (Mn3O4, Mn2O3, and MnO2), consistent with added stabilization of the layer and tunnel structures at the nanoscale. Surface energies generally decrease with decreasing average manganese oxidation state. A stabilizing enthalpy contribution arises from increasing counter-cation content. The formation of cryptomelane from birnessite in contact with aqueous solution is favored by the removal of ions from the layered phase. At large surface area, surface-energy differences make cryptomelane formation thermodynamically less favorable than birnessite formation. In contrast, at small to moderate surface areas, bulk thermodynamics and the energetics of the aqueous phase drive cryptomelane formation from birnessite, perhaps aided by oxidation-state differences. Transformation among birnessite phases of increasing surface area favors compositions with lower surface energy. These quantitative thermodynamic findings explain and support qualitative observations of phase-transformation patterns gathered from natural and synthetic manganese oxides. PMID:28130549

Extending the Confrontation of Weather and Climate Models from Soil Moisture to Surface Flux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dirmeyer, P.; Chen, L.; Wu, J.

2016-12-01

The atmosphere and land components of weather and climate models are typically developed separately and coupled as a last step before new model versions are released. Separate testing of land surface models (LSMs) and atmospheric models is often quite extensive in the development phase, but validation of coupled land-atmosphere behavior is often minimal if performed at all. This is partly because of this piecemeal model development approach and partly because the necessary in situ data to confront coupled land-atmosphere models (LAMs) has been meager until quite recently. Over the past 10-20 years there has been a growing number of networks of measurements of land surface states, surface fluxes, radiation and near-surface meteorology, although they have been largely uncoordinated and frequently incomplete across the range of variables necessary to validate LAMs. We extend recent work "confronting" a variety of LSMs and LAMs with in situ observations of soil moisture from cross-standardized networks to comparisons with measurements of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes at FLUXNET sites in a variety of climate regimes around the world. The motivation is to determine how well LSMs represent observed statistics of variability and co-variability, how much models differ from one another, and how those statistics change when the LSMs are coupled to atmospheric models. Furthermore, comparisons are made to several LAMs in both open-loop (free running) and reanalysis configurations. This shows to what extent data assimilation can constrain the processes involved in flux variability, and helps illuminate model development pathways to improve coupled land-atmosphere interactions in weather and climate models.

Highway Safety Information System guidebook for the Utah state data files. Volume 2 : single variable tabulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-07-01

The increasingly sophisticated demands placed on transportation planning models by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), the 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), and to a lesser extent some earlier legislation, have led ...

Vegetation change, malnutrition and violence in the Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowhani, P.; Degomme, O.; Linderman, M.; Guha-Sapir, D.; Lambin, E.

2008-12-01

In certain circumstances, climate change in association with a broad range of social factors may increase the risk of famines and subsequently, violent conflict. The impacts of climate change on society will be experienced both through changes in mean conditions over long time periods and through increases in extreme events. Recent studies have shown the historical effects of long term climate change on societies and the importance of short term climatic triggers on armed conflict. However, most of these studies are at the state level ignoring local conditions. Here we use detailed information extracted from wide-swath satellite data (MODIS) to analyze the impact of climate variability change on malnutrition and violent conflict. More specifically, we perform multivariate logistic regression analysis in order to explain the geographical distribution of malnutrition and conflict in the Horn of Africa on a sub-national level. This region, constituted by several unstable and poor states, has been affected by droughts, floods, famines, and violence in the past few years. Three commonly used nutrition and mortality indicators are used to characterize the health situation (CE-DAT database). To map violence we use the georeferenced Armed Conflicts dataset developed by the Center for the Study of Civil War. Explanatory variables include several socio-economic variables and environmental variables characterizing land degradation, vegetation activity, and interannual variability in land-surface conditions. First results show that interannual variability in land-surface conditions is associated with malnutrition but not with armed conflict. Furthermore, land degradation seems not to be associated with either malnutrition or armed conflict.

Distinct oxygen hole doping in different layers of Sr₂CuO 4-δ/La₂CuO₄ superlattices

DOE PAGES

Smadici, S.; Lee, J. C. T.; Rusydi, A.; ...

2012-03-28

X-ray absorption in Sr₂CuO 4-δ/La₂CuO₄ (SCO/LCO) superlattices shows a variable occupation with doping of a hole state different from holes doped for x≲x optimal in bulk La 2-xSr xCuO₄ and suggests that this hole state is on apical oxygen atoms and polarized in the a-b plane. Considering the surface reflectivity gives a good qualitative description of the line shapes of resonant soft x-ray scattering. The interference between superlattice and surface reflections was used to distinguish between scatterers in the SCO and the LCO layers, with the two hole states maximized in different layers of the superlattice.

An approach for mapping large-area impervious surfaces: Synergistic use of Landsat-7 ETM+ and high spatial resolution imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Limin; Huang, Chengquan; Homer, Collin G.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Coan, Michael

2003-01-01

A wide range of urban ecosystem studies, including urban hydrology, urban climate, land use planning, and resource management, require current and accurate geospatial data of urban impervious surfaces. We developed an approach to quantify urban impervious surfaces as a continuous variable by using multisensor and multisource datasets. Subpixel percent impervious surfaces at 30-m resolution were mapped using a regression tree model. The utility, practicality, and affordability of the proposed method for large-area imperviousness mapping were tested over three spatial scales (Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Richmond, Virginia, and the Chesapeake Bay areas of the United States). Average error of predicted versus actual percent impervious surface ranged from 8.8 to 11.4%, with correlation coefficients from 0.82 to 0.91. The approach is being implemented to map impervious surfaces for the entire United States as one of the major components of the circa 2000 national land cover database.

Spectral Behavior of a Linearized Land-Atmosphere Model: Applications to Hydrometeorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.; Polcher, J.

2008-12-01

The present study develops an improved version of the linearized land-atmosphere model first introduced by Lettau (1951). This model is used to investigate the spectral response of land-surface variables to a daily forcing of incoming radiation at the land-surface. An analytical solution of the problem is found in the form of temporal Fourier series and gives the atmospheric boundary-layer and soil profiles of state variables (potential temperature, specific humidity, sensible and latent heat fluxes). Moreover the spectral dependency of surface variables is expressed as function of land-surface parameters (friction velocity, vegetation height, aerodynamic resistance, stomatal conductance). This original approach has several advantages: First, the model only requires little data to work and perform well: only time series of incoming radiation at the land-surface, mean specific humidity and temperature at any given height are required. These inputs being widely available over the globe, the model can easily be run and tested under various conditions. The model will also help analysing the diurnal shape and frequency dependency of surface variables and soil-ABL profiles. In particular, a strong emphasis is being placed on the explanation and prediction of Evaporative Fraction (EF) and Bowen Ratio diurnal shapes. EF is shown to remain a diurnal constant under restricting conditions: fair and dry weather, with strong solar radiation and no clouds. Moreover, the EF pseudo-constancy value is found and given as function of surface parameters, such as aerodynamic resistance and stomatal conductance. Then, application of the model for the conception of remote-sensing tools, according to the temporal resolution of the sensor, will also be discussed. Finally, possible extensions and improvement of the model will be discussed.

Inherent Variability in Short-time Wind Turbine Statistics from Turbulence Structure in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavely, Adam; Vijayakumar, Ganesh; Brasseur, James; Paterson, Eric; Kinzel, Michael

2011-11-01

Using large-eddy simulation (LES) of the neutral and moderately convective atmospheric boundary layers (NBL, MCBL), we analyze the impact of coherent turbulence structure of the atmospheric surface layer on the short-time statistics that are commonly collected from wind turbines. The incoming winds are conditionally sampled with a filtering and thresholding algorithm into high/low horizontal and vertical velocity fluctuation coherent events. The time scales of these events are ~5 - 20 blade rotations and are roughly twice as long in the MCBL as the NBL. Horizontal velocity events are associated with greater variability in rotor power, lift and blade-bending moment than vertical velocity events. The variability in the industry standard 10 minute average for rotor power, sectional lift and wind velocity had a standard deviation of ~ 5% relative to the ``infinite time'' statistics for the NBL and ~10% for the MCBL. We conclude that turbulence structure associated with atmospheric stability state contributes considerable, quantifiable, variability to wind turbine statistics. Supported by NSF and DOE.

Comparison of four methods of surface roughness assessment of corneal stromal bed after lamellar cutting

PubMed Central

Jumelle, Clotilde; Hamri, Alina; Egaud, Gregory; Mauclair, Cyril; Reynaud, Stephanie; Dumas, Virginie; Pereira, Sandrine; Garcin, Thibaud; Gain, Philippe; Thuret, Gilles

2017-01-01

Corneal lamellar cutting with a blade or femtosecond laser (FSL) is commonly used during refractive surgery and corneal grafts. Surface roughness of the cutting plane influences postoperative visual acuity but is difficult to assess reliably. For the first time, we compared chromatic confocal microscopy (CCM) with scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM) and focus-variation microscopy (FVM) to characterize surfaces of variable roughness after FSL cutting. The small area allowed by AFM hinders conclusive roughness analysis, especially with irregular cuts. FVM does not always differentiate between smooth and rough surfaces. Finally, CCM allows analysis of large surfaces and differentiates between surface states. PMID:29188095

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE): Examining the complex Arctic biological-climatologic-hydrologic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; Miller, C. E.; Dinardo, S. J.

2012-12-01

Fundamental aspects of the complex Arctic biological-climatologic-hydrologic system remain poorly quantified. As a result, significant uncertainties exist in the carbon budget of the Arctic ecosystem. NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a currently-operational Earth Venture 1 (EV-1) mission that is examining correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems. CARVE is conducted through a series of intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission timeframe. CARVE employs a C-23 Sherpa aircraft to fly an innovative airborne remote sensing payload. This payload includes an L-band radiometer/radar system and a nadir-viewing spectrometer to deliver simultaneous measurements of land surface state variables that control gas emissions (i.e., soil moisture and inundation, freeze/thaw state, surface temperature) and total atmospheric columns of carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide. The aircraft payload also includes a gas analyzer that links greenhouse gas measurements directly to World Meteorological Organization standards and provide vertical profile information. CARVE measurement campaigns are scheduled regularly throughout the growing season each year to capture the seasonal variability in Arctic system carbon fluxes associated with the spring thaw, the summer drawdown, and the fall refreeze. Continuous ground-based measurements provide temporal and regional context as well as calibration for CARVE airborne measurements. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. Ultimately, CARVE will provide an integrated set of data that will provide unprecedented experimental insights into Arctic carbon cycling. Portions of this work were carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

An algorithm for analytical solution of basic problems featuring elastostatic bodies with cavities and surface flaws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penkov, V. B.; Levina, L. V.; Novikova, O. S.; Shulmin, A. S.

2018-03-01

Herein we propose a methodology for structuring a full parametric analytical solution to problems featuring elastostatic media based on state-of-the-art computing facilities that support computerized algebra. The methodology includes: direct and reverse application of P-Theorem; methods of accounting for physical properties of media; accounting for variable geometrical parameters of bodies, parameters of boundary states, independent parameters of volume forces, and remote stress factors. An efficient tool to address the task is the sustainable method of boundary states originally designed for the purposes of computerized algebra and based on the isomorphism of Hilbertian spaces of internal states and boundary states of bodies. We performed full parametric solutions of basic problems featuring a ball with a nonconcentric spherical cavity, a ball with a near-surface flaw, and an unlimited medium with two spherical cavities.

Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossin, James P.

2017-01-01

The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity. Here I show, however, that conditions conducive to greater basin-wide Atlantic hurricane activity occur together with conditions for more probable weakening of hurricanes near the United States coast. Thus, the VWS and SST form a protective barrier along the United States coast during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity. Conversely, during the most-recent period of basin-wide quiescence, hurricanes (and particularly major hurricanes) near the United States coast, although substantially less frequent, exhibited much greater variability in their rate of intensification, and were much more likely to intensify rapidly. Such heightened variability poses greater challenges to operational forecasting and, consequently, greater coastal risk during hurricane events.

The Graded Alluvial River: Variable Flow and the Dominant Discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blom, A.; Arkesteijn, L.; Viparelli, E.

2016-12-01

We derive analytical formulations for the graded or equilibrium longitudinal profile of a mixed-sediment alluvial river under variable flow. The formulations are applicable to reaches upstream from the backwater zone. The model is based on the conservation equations for the mass of two distinct sediment modes, sand and gravel, at the bed surface to account for the effects of grain size selective transport and abrasion of gravel particles. The effects of a variable flow rate are included by (a) treating the flow as a continuously changing yet steady water discharge (i.e. here termed an alternating steady discharge) and (b) assuming the time scale of changes in channel slope and bed surface texture to be much larger than the one of changes in flow rate. The equations are simplified realizing that at equilibrium the river profile finds itself in a dynamic steady state with oscillations around constant mean values of channel slope and bed surface texture. A generalized sediment transport relation representing the stochastic nature of sediment transport allows for explicit or analytical solutions to the streamwise decrease of both the channel slope and the bed surface mean grain size under variable flow for reaches unaffected by backwater effects. This modelling approach also provides a definition of a channel-forming or dominant water discharge, i.e., that steady water discharge that is equivalent in its effect on the equilibrium channel slope to the full hydrograph.

Analysis of rainfall-induced slope instability using a field of local factor of safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Ning; Şener-Kaya, Başak; Wayllace, Alexandra; Godt, Jonathan W.

2012-01-01

Slope-stability analyses are mostly conducted by identifying or assuming a potential failure surface and assessing the factor of safety (FS) of that surface. This approach of assigning a single FS to a potentially unstable slope provides little insight on where the failure initiates or the ultimate geometry and location of a landslide rupture surface. We describe a method to quantify a scalar field of FS based on the concept of the Coulomb stress and the shift in the state of stress toward failure that results from rainfall infiltration. The FS at each point within a hillslope is called the local factor of safety (LFS) and is defined as the ratio of the Coulomb stress at the current state of stress to the Coulomb stress of the potential failure state under the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. Comparative assessment with limit-equilibrium and hybrid finite element limit-equilibrium methods show that the proposed LFS is consistent with these approaches and yields additional insight into the geometry and location of the potential failure surface and how instability may initiate and evolve with changes in pore water conditions. Quantitative assessments applying the new LFS field method to slopes under infiltration conditions demonstrate that the LFS has the potential to overcome several major limitations in the classical FS methodologies such as the shape of the failure surface and the inherent underestimation of slope instability. Comparison with infinite-slope methods, including a recent extension to variably saturated conditions, shows further enhancement in assessing shallow landslide occurrence using the LFS methodology. Although we use only a linear elastic solution for the state of stress with no post-failure analysis that require more sophisticated elastoplastic or other theories, the LFS provides a new means to quantify the potential instability zones in hillslopes under variably saturated conditions using stress-field based methods.

Variability simulations with a steady, linearized primitive equations model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinter, J. L., III; Nigam, S.

1985-01-01

Solutions of the steady, primitive equations on a sphere, linearized about a zonally symmetric basic state are computed for the purpose of simulating monthly mean variability in the troposphere. The basic states are observed, winter monthly mean, zonal means of zontal and meridional velocities, temperatures and surface pressures computed from the 15 year NMC time series. A least squares fit to a series of Legendre polynomials is used to compute the basic states between 20 H and the equator, and the hemispheres are assumed symmetric. The model is spectral in the zonal direction, and centered differences are employed in the meridional and vertical directions. Since the model is steady and linear, the solution is obtained by inversion of a block, pente-diagonal matrix. The model simulates the climatology of the GFDL nine level, spectral general circulation model quite closely, particularly in middle latitudes above the boundary layer. This experiment is an extension of that simulation to examine variability of the steady, linear solution.

Tangent linear super-parameterization: attributable, decomposable moist processes for tropical variability studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mapes, B. E.; Kelly, P.; Song, S.; Hu, I. K.; Kuang, Z.

2015-12-01

An economical 10-layer global primitive equation solver is driven by time-independent forcing terms, derived from a training process, to produce a realisting eddying basic state with a tracer q trained to act like water vapor mixing ratio. Within this basic state, linearized anomaly moist physics in the column are applied in the form of a 20x20 matrix. The control matrix was derived from the results of Kuang (2010, 2012) who fitted a linear response function from a cloud resolving model in a state of deep convecting equilibrium. By editing this matrix in physical space and eigenspace, scaling and clipping its action, and optionally adding terms for processes that do not conserve moist statice energy (radiation, surface fluxes), we can decompose and explain the model's diverse moist process coupled variability. Recitified effects of this variability on the general circulation and climate, even in strictly zero-mean centered anomaly physic cases, also are sometimes surprising.

Shapes and stability of algebraic nuclear models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez-Moreno, Enrique; Castanos, Octavio

1995-01-01

A generalization of the procedure to study shapes and stability of algebraic nuclear models introduced by Gilmore is presented. One calculates the expectation value of the Hamiltonian with respect to the coherent states of the algebraic structure of the system. Then equilibrium configurations of the resulting energy surface, which depends in general on state variables and a set of parameters, are classified through the Catastrophe theory. For one- and two-body interactions in the Hamiltonian of the interacting Boson model-1, the critical points are organized through the Cusp catastrophe. As an example, we apply this Separatrix to describe the energy surfaces associated to the Rutenium and Samarium isotopes.

On the Interaction between Marine Boundary Layer Cellular Cloudiness and Surface Heat Fluxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kazil, J.; Feingold, G.; Wang, Hailong

2014-01-02

The interaction between marine boundary layer cellular cloudiness and surface uxes of sensible and latent heat is investigated. The investigation focuses on the non-precipitating closed-cell state and the precipitating open-cell state at low geostrophic wind speed. The Advanced Research WRF model is used to conduct cloud-system-resolving simulations with interactive surface fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, and of sea salt aerosol, and with a detailed representation of the interaction between aerosol particles and clouds. The mechanisms responsible for the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the surface heat fluxes in the closed- and open-cell state are investigated and explained. Itmore » is found that the horizontal spatial structure of the closed-cell state determines, by entrainment of dry free tropospheric air, the spatial distribution of surface air temperature and water vapor, and, to a lesser degree, of the surface sensible and latent heat flux. The synchronized dynamics of the the open-cell state drives oscillations in surface air temperature, water vapor, and in the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat, and of sea salt aerosol. Open-cell cloud formation, cloud optical depth and liquid water path, and cloud and rain water path are identified as good predictors of the spatial distribution of surface air temperature and sensible heat flux, but not of surface water vapor and latent heat flux. It is shown that by enhancing the surface sensible heat flux, the open-cell state creates conditions by which it is maintained. While the open-cell state under consideration is not depleted in aerosol, and is insensitive to variations in sea-salt fluxes, it also enhances the sea-salt flux relative to the closed-cell state. In aerosol-depleted conditions, this enhancement may replenish the aerosol needed for cloud formation, and hence contribute to the perpetuation of the open-cell state as well. Spatial homogenization of the surface fluxes is found to have only a small effect on cloud properties in the investigated cases. This indicates that sub-grid scale spatial variability in the surface flux of sensible and latent heat and of sea salt aerosol may not be required in large scale and global models to describe marine boundary layer cellular cloudiness.« less

A Method of Relating General Circulation Model Simulated Climate to the Observed Local Climate. Part I: Seasonal Statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, Thomas R.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Knight, Richard W.; Portman, David

1990-10-01

Important surface observations such as the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and cloud ceilings often have localized characteristics that are difficult to reproduce with the current resolution and the physical parameterizations in state-of-the-art General Circulation climate Models (GCMs). Many of the difficulties can be partially attributed to mismatches in scale, local topography. regional geography and boundary conditions between models and surface-based observations. Here, we present a method, called climatological projection by model statistics (CPMS), to relate GCM grid-point flee-atmosphere statistics, the predictors, to these important local surface observations. The method can be viewed as a generalization of the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prog (PP) procedures used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It consists of the application of three statistical methods: 1) principle component analysis (FICA), 2) canonical correlation, and 3) inflated regression analysis. The PCA reduces the redundancy of the predictors The canonical correlation is used to develop simultaneous relationships between linear combinations of the predictors, the canonical variables, and the surface-based observations. Finally, inflated regression is used to relate the important canonical variables to each of the surface-based observed variables.We demonstrate that even an early version of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric GCM (with prescribed sea surface temperature) produces free-atmosphere statistics than can, when standardized using the model's internal means and variances (the MOS-like version of CPMS), closely approximate the observed local climate. When the model data are standardized by the observed free-atmosphere means and variances (the PP version of CPMS), however, the model does not reproduce the observed surface climate as well. Our results indicate that in the MOS-like version of CPMS the differences between the output of a ten-year GCM control run and the surface-based observations are often smaller than the differences between the observations of two ten-year periods. Such positive results suggest that GCMs may already contain important climatological information that can be used to infer the local climate.

Surface Temperature Assimilation in Land Surface Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman

1997-01-01

This paper examines the utilization of surface temperature as a variable to be assimilated in offline land surface hydrological models. Comparisons between the model computed and satellite observed surface temperatures have been carried out. The assimilation of surface temperature is carried out twice a day (corresponding to the AM and PM overpass of the NOAA10) over the Red- Arkansas basin in the Southwestern United States (31 deg 50 min N - 36 deg N, 94 deg 30 min W - 104 deg 30 min W) for a period of one year (August 1987 to July 1988). The effect of assimilation is to reduce the difference between the surface soil moisture computed for the precipitation and/or shortwave radiation perturbed case and the unperturbed case compared to no assimilation.

Surface Temperature Assimilation in Land Surface Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman

1999-01-01

This paper examines the utilization of surface temperature as a variable to be assimilated in offline land surface hydrological models. Comparisons between the model computed and satellite observed surface temperatures have been carried out. The assimilation of surface temperature is carried out twice a day (corresponding to the AM and PM overpass of the NOAA10) over the Red-Arkansas basin in the Southwestern United States (31 degs 50 sec N - 36 degrees N, 94 degrees 30 seconds W - 104 degrees 3 seconds W) for a period of one year (August 1987 to July 1988). The effect of assimilation is to reduce the difference between the surface soil moisture computed for the precipitation and/or shortwave radiation perturbed case and the unperturbed case compared to no assimilation.

Spatiotemporal variations of the surface Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island derived from satellite altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jifeng; Yin, Baoshu; Xu, Zhenhua; Li, Delei

2018-01-01

Spatiotemporal variation of the surface Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island is investigated by quantitatively analyzing 23-year (1993-2015) sea surface Absolute Dynamic Topography data. The annual mean state of the Kuroshio is shown, with a flow width 136 km and surface transport 7.75×104m2/s. The corresponding standard deviations of these are 28 km and 2.14×104m2/s. Results of power spectrum analysis indicate that the primary periods of Kuroshio surface transport east of Taiwan Island are 1 and 2.8 years, respectively. Spatially, the Kuroshio surface transport southeast of Taiwan Island has greater variability than that to its northeast. That transport showed strong seasonality, with a maximum 8.8×104m2/s in summer and minimum 7.5×10 4 m 2 /s in winter, which was mainly caused by local monsoon winds. A linear long-term upward trend of Kuroshio surface transport during 1993-2015 was found, during which the mean, southeast, and northeast of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island increased by 0.30×10 4, 0.22×10 4 and 0.36×10 4 m 2 /s, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis show that the Philippines-Taiwan Oscillation (PTO) is important in the interannual variability of the Kuroshio. PTO-induced relative intensity of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies is the dominant influence on the interannual variability of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island.

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model-2010 Version

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leslie, F. W.; Justus, C. G.

2011-01-01

Reference or standard atmospheric models have long been used for design and mission planning of various aerospace systems. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Global Reference Atmospheric Model was developed in response to the need for a design reference atmosphere that provides complete global geographical variability and complete altitude coverage (surface to orbital altitudes), as well as complete seasonal and monthly variability of the thermodynamic variables and wind components. In addition to providing the geographical, height, and monthly variation of the mean atmospheric state, it includes the ability to simulate spatial and temporal perturbations.

Tungsten Incorporation into Gallium Oxide: Crystal Structure, Surface and Interface Chemistry, Thermal Stability and Interdiffusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rubio, E. J.; Mates, T. E.; Manandhar, S.

Tungsten (W) incorporated gallium oxide (Ga2O3) (GWO) thin films were deposited by radio-frequency magnetron co-sputtering of W-metal and Ga2O3-ceramic targets. Films were produced by varying sputtering power applied to the W-target in order to achieve variable W-content (0-12 at%) into Ga2O3 while substrate temperature was kept constant at 500 °C. Chemical composition, chemical valence states, microstructure and crystal structure of as-deposited and annealed GWO films were evaluated as a function of W-content. The structural and chemical analyses indicate that the samples deposited without any W-incorporation are stoichiometric, nanocrystalline Ga2O3 films, which crystallize in β-phase monoclinic structure. While GWO films alsomore » crystallize in monoclinic β-Ga2O3 phase, W-incorporation induces surface amorphization as revealed by structural studies. The chemical valence state of Ga ions probed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopic (XPS) analyses is characterized by the highest oxidation state i.e., Ga3+. No changes in Ga chemical state are noted for variable W-incorporation in the range of 0-12 at%. Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) analyses indicate the uniform distribution of W-content in the GWO films. However, XPS analyses indicate the formation of mixed valence states for W ions, which may be responsible for surface amorphization in GWO films. GWO films were stable up to 900 oC, at which point thermally induced secondary phase (W-oxide) formation was observed. A transition to mesoporous structure coupled with W interdiffusion occurs due to thermal annealing as derived from the chemical analyses at the GWO films’ surface as well as depth-profiling towards the GWO-Si interface. A model has been formulated to account for the mechanism of W-incorporation, thermal stability and interdiffusion via pore formation in GWO films.« less

Identification of the protein folding transition state from molecular dynamics trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muff, S.; Caflisch, A.

2009-03-01

The rate of protein folding is governed by the transition state so that a detailed characterization of its structure is essential for understanding the folding process. In vitro experiments have provided a coarse-grained description of the folding transition state ensemble (TSE) of small proteins. Atomistic details could be obtained by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations but it is not straightforward to extract the TSE directly from the MD trajectories, even for small peptides. Here, the structures in the TSE are isolated by the cut-based free-energy profile (cFEP) using the network whose nodes and links are configurations sampled by MD and direct transitions among them, respectively. The cFEP is a barrier-preserving projection that does not require arbitrarily chosen progress variables. First, a simple two-dimensional free-energy surface is used to illustrate the successful determination of the TSE by the cFEP approach and to explain the difficulty in defining boundary conditions of the Markov state model for an entropically stabilized free-energy minimum. The cFEP is then used to extract the TSE of a β-sheet peptide with a complex free-energy surface containing multiple basins and an entropic region. In contrast, Markov state models with boundary conditions defined by projected variables and conventional histogram-based free-energy profiles are not able to identify the TSE of the β-sheet peptide.

Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2016-12-01

Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Booth, Ben B B; Dunstone, Nick J; Halloran, Paul R; Andrews, Timothy; Bellouin, Nicolas

2012-04-04

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Adjustment of prior constraints for an improved crop monitoring with the Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truckenbrodt, Sina C.; Gómez-Dans, José; Stelmaszczuk-Górska, Martyna A.; Chernetskiy, Maxim; Schmullius, Christiane C.

2017-04-01

Throughout the past decades various satellite sensors have been launched that record reflectance in the optical domain and facilitate comprehensive monitoring of the vegetation-covered land surface from space. The interaction of photons with the canopy, leaves and soil that determines the spectrum of reflected sunlight can be simulated with radiative transfer models (RTMs). The inversion of RTMs permits the derivation of state variables such as leaf area index (LAI) and leaf chlorophyll content from top-of-canopy reflectance. Space-borne data are, however, insufficient for an unambiguous derivation of state variables and additional constraints are required to resolve this ill-posed problem. Data assimilation techniques permit the conflation of various information with due allowance for associated uncertainties. The Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS) integrates RTMs into a dynamic process model that describes the temporal evolution of state variables. In addition, prior information is included to further constrain the inversion and enhance the state variable derivation. In previous studies on EO-LDAS, prior information was represented by temporally constant values for all investigated state variables, while information about their phenological evolution was neglected. Here, we examine to what extent the implementation of prior information reflecting the phenological variability improves the performance of EO-LDAS with respect to the monitoring of crops on the agricultural Gebesee test site (Central Germany). Various routines for the generation of prior information are tested. This involves the usage of data on state variables that was acquired in previous years as well as the application of phenological models. The performance of EO-LDAS with the newly implemented prior information is tested based on medium resolution satellite imagery (e.g., RapidEye REIS, Sentinel-2 MSI, Landsat-7 ETM+ and Landsat-8 OLI). The predicted state variables are validated against in situ data from the Gebesee test site that were acquired with a weekly to fortnightly resolution throughout the growing seasons of 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2016. Furthermore, the results are compared with the outcome of using constant values as prior information. In this presentation, the EO-LDAS scheme and results obtained from different prior information are presented.

Monsoon-driven variability in the southern Red Sea and the exchange with the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Abualnaja, Y.; Nenes, A.; Hoteit, I.

2016-02-01

Although progress has been achieved in describing and understanding the mean state and seasonal cycle of the Red Sea dynamics, their interannual variability is not yet well evaluated and explained. The thermohaline characteristics and the circulation patterns present strong variability at various time scales and are affected by the strong and variable atmospheric forcing and the exchange with the Indian Ocean and the gulfs located at the northern end of the basin. Sea surface temperature time-series, derived from satellite observations, show considerable trends and interannual variations. The spatial variability pattern is very diverse, especially in the north-south direction. The southern part of the Red Sea is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon variability that affects the sea surface temperature through the surface fluxes and the circulation patterns. This variability has also a strong impact on the lateral fluxes and the exchange with the Indian Ocean through the strait of Bab el Mandeb. During summer, there is a reversal of the surface flow and an intermediate intrusion of a relatively cold and fresh water mass. This water originates from the Gulf of Aden (the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water - GAIW), is identified in the southern part of the basin and spreads northward along the eastern Red Sea boundary to approximately 24°N and carried across the Red Sea by basin-size eddies. The GAIW intrusion plays an important role in the heat and freshwater budget of the southern Red Sea, especially in summer, impacting the thermohaline characteristics of the region. It is a permanent feature of the summer exchange flow but it exhibits significant variation from year to year. The intrusion is controlled by a monsoon-driven pressure gradient in the two ends of the strait and thus monsoon interannual variability can laterally impose its signal to the southern Red Sea thermohaline patterns.

Impact of Langmuir Turbulence on Upper Ocean Response to Hurricane Edouard: Model and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blair, A.; Ginis, I.; Hara, T.; Ulhorn, E.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclone intensity is strongly affected by the air-sea heat flux beneath the storm. When strong storm winds enhance upper ocean turbulent mixing and entrainment of colder water from below the thermocline, the resulting sea surface temperature cooling may reduce the heat flux to the storm and weaken the storm. Recent studies suggest that this upper ocean turbulence is strongly affected by different sea states (Langmuir turbulence), which are highly complex and variable in tropical cyclone conditions. In this study, the upper ocean response under Hurricane Edouard (2014) is investigated using a coupled ocean-wave model with and without an explicit sea state dependent Langmuir turbulence parameterization. The results are compared with in situ observations of sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth from AXBTs, as well as satellite sea surface temperature observations. Overall, the model results of mixed layer deepening and sea surface temperature cooling under and behind the storm are consistent with observations. The model results show that the effects of sea state dependent Langmuir turbulence can be significant, particularly on the mixed layer depth evolution. Although available observations are not sufficient to confirm such effects, some observed trends suggest that the sea state dependent parameterization might be more accurate than the traditional (sea state independent) parameterization.

Ocean acidification state in western Antarctic surface waters: drivers and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsdotter Björk, M.; Fransson, A.; Chierici, M.

2013-05-01

Each December during four years from 2006 to 2010, the surface water carbonate system was measured and investigated in the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea, western Antarctica as part of the Oden Southern Ocean expeditions (OSO). The I/B Oden started in Punta Arenas in Chile and sailed southwest, passing through different regimes such as, the marginal/seasonal ice zone, fronts, coastal shelves, and polynyas. Discrete surface water was sampled underway for analysis of total alkalinity (AT), total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and pH. Two of these parameters were used together with sea-surface temperature (SST), and salinity to obtain a full description of the surface water carbonate system, including pH in situ and calcium carbonate saturation state of aragonite (ΩAr) and calcite (ΩCa). Multivariate analysis was used to investigate interannual variability and the major controls (sea-ice concentration, SST, salinity and chlorophyll a) on the variability in the carbonate system and Ω. This analysis showed that SST and chlorophyll a were the major drivers of the Ω variability in both the Amundsen and Ross seas. In 2007, the sea-ice edge was located further south and the area of the open polynya was relatively small compared to 2010. We found the lowest pH in situ (7.932) and Ω = 1 values in the sea-ice zone and in the coastal Amundsen Sea, nearby marine out flowing glaciers. In 2010, the sea-ice coverage was the largest and the areas of the open polynyas were the largest for the whole period. This year we found the lowest salinity and AT, coinciding with highest chl a. This implies that the highest ΩAr in 2010 was likely an effect of biological CO2 drawdown, which out-competed the dilution of carbonate ion concentration due to large melt water volumes. We predict and discuss future Ω values, using our data and reported rates of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, suggesting that the Amundsen Sea will become undersaturated with regard to aragonite about 20 yr sooner than predicted by models.

Is the Aquarius sea surface salinity variability representative?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, J.; Grodsky, S.

2016-12-01

The leading mode of the Aquarius monthly anomalous sea surface salinity (SSS) is evaluated within the 50S-50N belt, where SSS retrieval accuracy is higher. This mode accounts for about 18% of the variance and resembles a pattern of the ENSO-induced anomalous rainfall. The leading mode of SSS variability deducted from a longer JAMSTEC analysis also accounts for about 17% of the variance and has very similar spatial pattern and almost a perfect correspondence of its temporal principal component to the SOI index. In that sense, the Aquarius SSS variability at low and middle latitudes is representative of SSS variability that may be obtained from longer records. This is explained by the fact that during the Aquarius period (2011-2015), the SOI index changed significantly from La Nina toward El Nino state, thus spanning a significant range of its characteristic variations. Multivariate EOF analysis of anomalous SSS and SST suggests that ENSO-induced shift in the tropical Pacific rainfall produces negatively correlated variability of temperature and salinity, which are expected if the anomalous surface flux (stronger rainfall coincident with less downward radiation) drives the system. But, anomalous SSS and SST are positively correlated in some areas including the northwestern Atlantic shelf (north of the Gulfstream) and the Pacific sector adjusting to the California peninsula. This positive correlation is indicative of an advection driven regime that is analyzed separately.

Algal bloom-associated disease outbreaks among users of freshwater lakes-United States, 2009 - 2010

EPA Science Inventory

‘Algal blooms’ are local abundances of phytoplankton – microscopic photosynthesizing aquatic organisms found in surface waters worldwide; blooms are variable temporally and spatially and frequently produce a visible algal scum on the water. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are abundan...

A mapping variable ring polymer molecular dynamics study of condensed phase proton-coupled electron transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre, Sadrach; Duke, Jessica R.; Hele, Timothy J. H.; Ananth, Nandini

2017-12-01

We investigate the mechanisms of condensed phase proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) using Mapping-Variable Ring Polymer Molecular Dynamics (MV-RPMD), a recently developed method that employs an ensemble of classical trajectories to simulate nonadiabatic excited state dynamics. Here, we construct a series of system-bath model Hamiltonians for the PCET, where four localized electron-proton states are coupled to a thermal bath via a single solvent mode, and we employ MV-RPMD to simulate state population dynamics. Specifically, for each model, we identify the dominant PCET mechanism, and by comparing against rate theory calculations, we verify that our simulations correctly distinguish between concerted PCET, where the electron and proton transfer together, and sequential PCET, where either the electron or the proton transfers first. This work represents a first application of MV-RPMD to multi-level condensed phase systems; we introduce a modified MV-RPMD expression that is derived using a symmetric rather than asymmetric Trotter discretization scheme and an initialization protocol that uses a recently derived population estimator to constrain trajectories to a dividing surface. We also demonstrate that, as expected, the PCET mechanisms predicted by our simulations are robust to an arbitrary choice of the initial dividing surface.

Surface conditions of Nitinol wires, tubing, and as-cast alloys. The effect of chemical etching, aging in boiling water, and heat treatment.

PubMed

Shabalovskaya, S A; Anderegg, J; Laab, F; Thiel, P A; Rondelli, G

2003-04-15

The surface conditions of Nitinol wires and tubing were evaluated with the use of X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, high-resolution Auger spectroscopy, electron backscattering, and scanning-electron microscopy. Samples were studied in the as-received state as well as after chemical etching, aging in boiling water, and heat treatment, and compared to a mechanically polished 600-grit-finish Nitinol surface treated similarly. General regularities in surface behavior induced by the examined surface treatments are similar for wires, tubing, and studied as-cast alloy, though certain differences in surface Ni concentration were observed. Nitinol wires and tubing from various suppliers demonstrated great variability in Ni surface concentration (0.5-15 at.%) and Ti/Ni ratio (0.4-35). The wires in the as-received state, with the exception of those with a black oxide originating in the processing procedure, revealed nickel and titanium on the surface in both elemental and oxidized states, indicating a nonpassive surface. Shape-setting heat treatment at 500 degrees C for 15 min resulted in tremendous increase in the surface Ni concentration and complete Ni oxidation. Preliminary chemical etching and boiling in water successfully prevented surface enrichment in Ni, initially resulting from heat treatment. A stoichiometric uniformly amorphous TiO(2) oxide generated during chemical etching and aging in boiling water was reconstructed at 700 degrees C, revealing rutile structure. Copyright 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of temporal averaging on short-term irradiance variability under mixed sky conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Gerald M.; Monahan, Adam H.

2018-05-01

Characterizations of short-term variability in solar radiation are required to successfully integrate large numbers of photovoltaic power systems into the electrical grid. Previous studies have used ground-based irradiance observations with a range of different temporal resolutions and a systematic analysis of the effects of temporal averaging on the representation of variability is lacking. Using high-resolution surface irradiance data with original temporal resolutions between 0.01 and 1 s from six different locations in the Northern Hemisphere, we characterize the changes in representation of temporal variability resulting from time averaging. In this analysis, we condition all data to states of mixed skies, which are the most potentially problematic in terms of local PV power volatility. Statistics of clear-sky index k* and its increments Δk*τ (i.e., normalized surface irradiance and changes therein over specified intervals of time) are considered separately. Our results indicate that a temporal averaging time scale of around 1 s marks a transition in representing single-point irradiance variability, such that longer averages result in substantial underestimates of variability. Higher-resolution data increase the complexity of data management and quality control without appreciably improving the representation of variability. The results do not show any substantial discrepancies between locations or seasons.

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; Zhang, Xuesong; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Leung, L. Ruby

2016-11-01

Despite the importance of surface water to people and ecosystems, few studies have explored detectable changes in surface water supply in a changing climate, given its large natural variability. Here we analyze runoff projections from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model driven by 97 downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our results show that more than 40% of the CONUS land area will experience significant changes in the probability distribution functions (i.e. PDFs) of summer and winter runoff by the end of the 21st century, which may pose great challenges to future surface water supply. Sub-basin mean runoff PDFs are projected to change significantly after 2040s depending on the emission scenarios, with earliest occurrence in the Pacific Northwest and northern California regions. When examining the response as a function of changes in the global mean temperature (ΔGMT), a linear relationship is revealed at the 95% confidence level. Generally, 1 °C increase of GMT leads to 11% and 17% more lands experiencing changes in summer and winter runoff PDFs, respectively. Such changes in land fraction scale with ΔGMT at the country scale independent of emission scenarios, but the same relationship does not necessarily hold at sub-basin scales, due to the larger role of atmospheric circulation changes and their uncertainties on regional precipitation. Further analyses show that the emergence of significant changes in sub-basin runoff PDFs is indicative of the emergence of new hydrology regimes and it is dominated by the changes in variability rather than shift in the mean, regardless of the emission scenarios.

Assimilation of Gridded GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Estimates in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Rodell, Matthew; Reichle, Rolf; Li, Bailing; Jasinski, Michael; Mocko, David; Getirana, Augusto; De Lannoy, Gabrielle;

Feedback controlled optics with wavefront compensation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breckenridge, William G. (Inventor); Redding, David C. (Inventor)

1993-01-01

The sensitivity model of a complex optical system obtained by linear ray tracing is used to compute a control gain matrix by imposing the mathematical condition for minimizing the total wavefront error at the optical system's exit pupil. The most recent deformations or error states of the controlled segments or optical surfaces of the system are then assembled as an error vector, and the error vector is transformed by the control gain matrix to produce the exact control variables which will minimize the total wavefront error at the exit pupil of the optical system. These exact control variables are then applied to the actuators controlling the various optical surfaces in the system causing the immediate reduction in total wavefront error observed at the exit pupil of the optical system.

Rare Central Pacific El Niño Events Caused by Interdecadal Tropical Pacific Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wenxiu; Zheng, Xiaotong; Cai, Wenju

2017-04-01

The frequency of Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events displays strong decadal-variability but the associated dynamics is still not clear. The Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV) are two dominant modes of the Pacific low-frequency variability that can modify high-frequency behaviors. Using a 500-year control integration of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model simulation, we find that the mean state, determined by the two independent modes of tropical Pacific decadal variability, strongly affects CP El Niño frequency and the associated developing processes. A positive TPDV features a shallow thermocline and cool sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the central-to-western tropical Pacific, and a negative IPO features cool SSTAs and strong trade winds along the equatorial Pacific. The combination of a positive TPDV and a negative IPO generates a decadal mean state, in which the climatological zonal temperature gradient is reduced, equatorward and westward current anomalies are harder to be generated over the central-to-western tropical Pacific, resulting in the lack of CP El Niño.

Spatiotemporal Co-variability of Surface Climate for Renewable Energy across the Contiguous United States: Role of the North Atlantic Subtropical High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doering, K.; Steinschneider, S.

2017-12-01

The variability of renewable energy supply and drivers of demand across space and time largely determines the energy balance within power systems with a high penetration of renewable technologies. This study examines the joint spatiotemporal variability of summertime climate linked to renewable energy production (precipitation, wind speeds, insolation) and energy demand (temperature) across the contiguous United States (CONUS) between 1948 and 2015. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify the major modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation and related patterns of insolation and temperature. Canonical variates are then related to circulation anomalies to identify common drivers of the joint modes of climate variability. Results show that the first two modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation exhibit pan-US dipole patterns with centers of action located in the eastern and central CONUS. Temperature and insolation also exhibit related US-wide dipoles. The relationship between canonical variates and lower-tropospheric geopotential height indicates that these modes are related to variability in the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). This insight can inform optimal strategies for siting renewables in an interconnected electric grid, and has implications for the impacts of climate variability and change on renewable energy systems.

Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.

Augmented Ehrenfest dynamics yields a rate for surface hopping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subotnik, Joseph E.

2010-04-01

We present a new algorithm for mixed quantum-classical dynamics that helps bridge the gap between mean-field (Ehrenfest) and surface-hopping dynamics by defining a natural rate of decoherence. In order to derive this decoherence result, we have expanded the number of independent variables in the usual Ehrenfest routine so that mixed quantum-classical derivatives are now propagated in time alongside the usual Ehrenfest variables. Having done so, we compute a unique rate of decoherence using two independent approaches: (i) by comparing the equations of motion for the joint nuclear-electronic probability density in phase space according to Ehrenfest dynamics versus partial Wigner transform dynamics and (ii) by introducing a frozen Gaussian interpretation of Ehrenfest dynamics which allows nuclear wave packets to separate. The first consequence of this work is a means to rigorously check the accuracy of standard Ehrenfest dynamics. Second, this paper suggests a nonadiabatic dynamics algorithm, whereby the nuclei are propagated on the mean-field (Ehrenfest) potential energy surface and undergo stochastic decoherence events. Our work resembles the surface-hopping algorithm of Schwartz and co-workers [J. Chem. Phys. 123, 234106 (2005)]—only now without any adjustable parameters. For the case of two electronic states, we present numerical results on the so-called "Tully problems" and emphasize that future numerical benchmarking is still needed. Future work will also treat the problem of three or more electronic states.

Relating landscape characteristics to non-point source pollution in mine waste-located watersheds using geospatial techniques.

PubMed

Xiao, Huaguo; Ji, Wei

2007-01-01

Landscape characteristics of a watershed are important variables that influence surface water quality. Understanding the relationship between these variables and surface water quality is critical in predicting pollution potential and developing watershed management practices to eliminate or reduce pollution risk. To understand the impacts of landscape characteristics on water quality in mine waste-located watersheds, we conducted a case study in the Tri-State Mining District which is located in the conjunction of three states (Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma). Severe heavy metal pollution exists in that area resulting from historical mining activities. We characterized land use/land cover over the last three decades by classifying historical multi-temporal Landsat imagery. Landscape metrics such as proportion, edge density and contagion were calculated based on the classified imagery. In-stream water quality data over three decades were collected, including lead, zinc, iron, cadmium, aluminum and conductivity which were used as key water quality indicators. Statistical analyses were performed to quantify the relationship between landscape metrics and surface water quality. Results showed that landscape characteristics in mine waste-located watersheds could account for as much as 77% of the variation of water quality indicators. A single landscape metric alone, such as proportion of mine waste area, could be used to predict surface water quality; but its predicting power is limited, usually accounting for less than 60% of the variance of water quality indicators.

Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer for Mapping Freeze-Thaw State in Northern Landscapes as a Measure of Ecological and Hydrological Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle; Kimball, John; Zimmermann, Reiner; Way, JoBea; Frolking, Steve; Running, Steve

1994-01-01

Landscape freeze/thaw transitions coincide with marked shifts in albedo, surface energy and mass exchange, and associated snow dynamics. monitoring landscape freeze/thaw dynamics would improve our ability to quantify the interannual variability of boreal hydrology and river runoff/flood dynamics, The annual duration of frost-free period also bounds the period of photosynthetic activity in borel and arctic regions thus affecting the carbon budget and the interannual variability fo regional carbon fluxes.

Shell anomalies observed in a population of Archaias angulatus (Foraminifera) from the Florida Keys (USA) sampled in 1982-83 and 2006-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Souder, H.C.; McCloskey, B.; Hallock, P.; Byrne, R.

2010-01-01

Archived specimens of Archaias angulatus collected live at a depth of < 2. m in John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park, Key Largo, Florida, in June, September and December 1982, and March 1983, were compared to specimens collected live from the same site and months in 2006-07. Shells were examined using light microscopy for anomalous features, which were then documented using scanning electron microscopy. Seven different types of morphological abnormalities and five different surface texture anomalies were observed. Physical abnormalities included profoundly deformed, curled, asymmetrical, and uncoiled shells, irregular suture lines, surface protrusions, and breakage/repair. Textural anomalies observed were surface pits, dissolution features, microborings, microbial biofilms, and the presence of epibionts including bryzoans, cyanobacteria and foraminifers. The same kinds of features were found in this A. angulatus population in both 1982-83 collections and 2006-07 collections. Within-date variability was higher in specimens collected in 1982-83, while between-date variability was higher in 2006-07; overall the range of variability was similar. Given that the site was originally chosen for study because these foraminifers were so abundant, the lack of significant change indicates that the variability of the geochemical habitat is still within the range that A. angulatus can thrive. ?? 2010.

Analytical Round Robin for Elastic-Plastic Analysis of Surface Cracked Plates: Phase I Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, D. N.; Allen, P. A.

2012-01-01

An analytical round robin for the elastic-plastic analysis of surface cracks in flat plates was conducted with 15 participants. Experimental results from a surface crack tension test in 2219-T8 aluminum plate provided the basis for the inter-laboratory study (ILS). The study proceeded in a blind fashion given that the analysis methodology was not specified to the participants, and key experimental results were withheld. This approach allowed the ILS to serve as a current measure of the state of the art for elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analysis. The analytical results and the associated methodologies were collected for comparison, and sources of variability were studied and isolated. The results of the study revealed that the J-integral analysis methodology using the domain integral method is robust, providing reliable J-integral values without being overly sensitive to modeling details. General modeling choices such as analysis code, model size (mesh density), crack tip meshing, or boundary conditions, were not found to be sources of significant variability. For analyses controlled only by far-field boundary conditions, the greatest source of variability in the J-integral assessment is introduced through the constitutive model. This variability can be substantially reduced by using crack mouth opening displacements to anchor the assessment. Conclusions provide recommendations for analysis standardization.

The Effects of Fine-scale Soil Moisture and Canopy Heterogeneities on Energy and Soil Water Fluxes in a Temperate Mixed Deciduous Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, L.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bohrer, G.; Maurer, K.; Vogel, C. S.; Moghaddam, M.

2011-12-01

Vegetation is heterogeneous at different scales, influencing spatially variable energy and water exchanges between land-surface and atmosphere. Current land surface parameterizations of large-scale models consider spatial variability at a scale of a few kilometers and treat vegetation cover as aggregated patches with uniform properties. However, the coupling mechanisms between fine-scale soil moisture, vegetation, and energy fluxes such as evapotranspiration are strongly nonlinear; the aggregation of surface variations may produce biased energy fluxes. This study aims to improve the understanding of the scale impact in atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere interactions, which affects predictive capabilities of land surface models. The study uses a high-resolution, physically-based ecohydrological model tRIBS + VEGGIE as a data integration tool to upscale the heterogeneity of canopy distribution resolved at a few meters to the watershed scale. The study was carried out for a spatially heterogeneous, temperate mixed forest environment of Northern Michigan located near the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS). Energy and soil water dynamics were simulated at the tree-canopy resolution in the horizontal plane for a small domain (~2 sq. km) located within a footprint of the AmeriFlux tower. A variety of observational data were used to constrain and confirm the model, including a 3-m profile continuous soil moisture dataset and energy flux data (measured at the AmeriFlux tower footprint). A scenario with a spatially uniform canopy, corresponding to the commonly used 'big-leaf' scheme in land surface parameterizations was used to infer the effects of coarse-scale averaging. To gain insights on how heterogeneous canopy and soil moisture interact and contribute to the domain-averaged transpiration, several scenarios of tree-scale leaf area and soil moisture spatial variability were designed. Specifically, for the same mean states, the scenarios of variability of canopy biomass account for the spatial distribution of photosynthesis (and thus the stomatal resistance), the aerodynamic and leaf boundary layer resistances as well as the differential radiation forcing due to tall tree exposure and lateral shading of short trees. The numerical experiments show that by transpiring spatially varying amounts of water, heterogeneous canopies adjust the spatial soil water state to the scaled inverse of the canopy biomass regardless of the initial moisture state. Such a spatial distribution can be further wiped out because of the differential water stress. The aggregation of canopy-scale atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere interactions demonstrates non-linear relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, influencing domain-averaged energy fluxes.

Assimilation of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Fields: Validating Ocean Analyses and Identifying Errors in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehra, A.; Nadiga, S.; Bayler, E. J.; Behringer, D.

2014-12-01

Recently available satellite sea-surface salinity (SSS) fields provide an important new global data stream for assimilation into ocean forecast systems. In this study, we present results from assimilating satellite SSS fields from NASA's Aquarius mission into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4), the oceanic component of NOAA's operational seasonal-interannual Climate Forecast System (CFS). Experiments on the sensitivity of the ocean's overall state to different relaxation time periods were run to evaluate the importance of assimilating high-frequency (daily to mesoscale) and low-frequency (seasonal) SSS variability. Aquarius SSS data (Aquarius Data Processing System (ADPS) version 3.0), mapped daily fields at 1-degree spatial resolution, were used. Four model simulations were started from the same initial ocean condition and forced with NOAA's daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) fluxes, using a relaxation technique to assimilate daily satellite sea surface temperature (SST) fields and selected SSS fields, where, except as noted, a 30-day relaxation period is used. The simulations are: (1) WOAMC, the reference case and similar to the operational setup, assimilating monthly climatological SSS from the 2009 NOAA World Ocean Atlas; (2) AQ_D, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS; (3) AQ_M, assimilating monthly Aquarius SSS; and (4) AQ_D10, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS, but using a 10-day relaxation period. The analysis focuses on the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the salinity dynamics are intense and dominated by El Niño interannual variability in the cold tongue region and by high-frequency precipitation events in the western Pacific warm pool region. To assess the robustness of results and conclusions, we also examine the results for the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Preliminary validation studies are conducted using observations, such as satellite sea-surface height (SSH) fields and in situ Argo buoy vertical profiles of temperature and salinity, to demonstrate that SSS data assimilation improves ocean state representation of the following variables: ocean heat content (0-300m), dynamic height (0-1000m), mixed-layer depth, sea surface heigh, and surface buoyancy fluxes.

An Analytic Approach to Modeling Land-Atmosphere Interaction: 1. Construct and Equilibrium Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brubaker, Kaye L.; Entekhabi, Dara

1995-03-01

A four-variable land-atmosphere model is developed to investigate the coupled exchanges of water and energy between the land surface and atmosphere and the role of these exchanges in the statistical behavior of continental climates. The land-atmosphere system is substantially simplified and formulated as a set of ordinary differential equations that, with the addition of random noise, are suitable for analysis in the form of the multivariate Îto equation. The model treats the soil layer and the near-surface atmosphere as reservoirs with storage capacities for heat and water. The transfers between these reservoirs are regulated by four states: soil saturation, soil temperature, air specific humidity, and air potential temperature. The atmospheric reservoir is treated as a turbulently mixed boundary layer of fixed depth. Heat and moisture advection, precipitation, and layer-top air entrainment are parameterized. The system is forced externally by solar radiation and the lateral advection of air and water mass. The remaining energy and water mass exchanges are expressed in terms of the state variables. The model development and equilibrium solutions are presented. Although comparisons between observed data and steady state model results re inexact, the model appears to do a reasonable job of partitioning net radiation into sensible and latent heat flux in appropriate proportions for bare-soil midlatitude summer conditions. Subsequent work will introduce randomness into the forcing terms to investigate the effect of water-energy coupling and land-atmosphere interaction on variability and persistence in the climatic system.

Computer program for simulation of variable recharge with the U. S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model (MODFLOW)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kontis, A.L.

2001-01-01

The Variable-Recharge Package is a computerized method designed for use with the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional finitedifference ground-water flow model (MODFLOW-88) to simulate areal recharge to an aquifer. It is suitable for simulations of aquifers in which the relation between ground-water levels and land surface can affect the amount and distribution of recharge. The method is based on the premise that recharge to an aquifer cannot occur where the water level is at or above land surface. Consequently, recharge will vary spatially in simulations in which the Variable- Recharge Package is applied, if the water levels are sufficiently high. The input data required by the program for each model cell that can potentially receive recharge includes the average land-surface elevation and a quantity termed ?water available for recharge,? which is equal to precipitation minus evapotranspiration. The Variable-Recharge Package also can be used to simulate recharge to a valley-fill aquifer in which the valley fill and the adjoining uplands are explicitly simulated. Valley-fill aquifers, which are the most common type of aquifer in the glaciated northeastern United States, receive much of their recharge from upland sources as channeled and(or) unchanneled surface runoff and as lateral ground-water flow. Surface runoff in the uplands is generated in the model when the applied water available for recharge is rejected because simulated water levels are at or above land surface. The surface runoff can be distributed to other parts of the model by (1) applying the amount of the surface runoff that flows to upland streams (channeled runoff) to explicitly simulated streams that flow onto the valley floor, and(or) (2) applying the amount that flows downslope toward the valley- fill aquifer (unchanneled runoff) to specified model cells, typically those near the valley wall. An example model of an idealized valley- fill aquifer is presented to demonstrate application of the method and the type of information that can be derived from its use. Documentation of the Variable-Recharge Package is provided in the appendixes and includes listings of model code and of program variables. Comment statements in the program listings provide a narrative of the code. Input-data instructions and printed model output for the package are included.

Field scale spatiotemporal analysis of surface soil moisture for evaluating point-scale in situ networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture is an intrinsic state variable that varies considerably in space and time. From a hydrologic viewpoint, soil moisture controls runoff, infiltration, storage and drainage. Soil moisture determines the partitioning of the incoming radiation between latent and sensible heat fluxes. Althou...

Verification of land-atmosphere coupling in forecast models, reanalyses and land surface models using flux site observations.

PubMed

Dirmeyer, Paul A; Chen, Liang; Wu, Jiexia; Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua; Cash, Benjamin A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Mahanama, Sarith; Koster, Randal D; Santanello, Joseph A; Ek, Michael B; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Dutra, Emanuel; Lawrence, D M

2018-02-01

We confront four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM+GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly under-represent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land-atmosphere coupling), and may over-represent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally under-represent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Our analysis illuminates targets for coupled land-atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally-distributed observational monitoring.

Entropy as a collective variable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrinello, Michele

Sampling complex free energy surfaces that exhibit long lived metastable states separated by kinetic bottlenecks is one of the most pressing issues in the atomistic simulations of matter. Not surprisingly many solutions to this problem have been suggested. Many of them are based on the identification of appropriate collective variables that span the manifold of the slow varying modes of the system. While much effort has been put in devising and even constructing on the fly appropriate collective variables there is still a cogent need of introducing simple, generic, physically transparent, and yet effective collective variables. Motivated by the physical observation that in many case transitions between one metastable state and another result from a trade off between enthalpy and entropy we introduce appropriate collective variables that are able to represent in a simple way these two physical properties. We use these variables in the context of the recently introduced variationally enhanced sampling and apply it them with success to the simulation of crystallization from the liquid and to conformational transitions in protein. Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, ETH Zurich, and Facolta' di Informatica, Istituto di Scienze Computazionali, Universita' della Svizzera Italiana, Via G. Buffi 13, 6900 Lugano, Switzerland.

Spatial variability of specific surface area of arable soils in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolowski, S.; Sokolowska, Z.; Usowicz, B.

2012-04-01

Evaluation of soil spatial variability is an important issue in agrophysics and in environmental research. Knowledge of spatial variability of physico-chemical properties enables a better understanding of several processes that take place in soils. In particular, it is well known that mineralogical, organic, as well as particle-size compositions of soils vary in a wide range. Specific surface area of soils is one of the most significant characteristics of soils. It can be not only related to the type of soil, mainly to the content of clay, but also largely determines several physical and chemical properties of soils and is often used as a controlling factor in numerous biological processes. Knowledge of the specific surface area is necessary in calculating certain basic soil characteristics, such as the dielectric permeability of soil, water retention curve, water transport in the soil, cation exchange capacity and pesticide adsorption. The aim of the present study is two-fold. First, we carry out recognition of soil total specific surface area patterns in the territory of Poland and perform the investigation of features of its spatial variability. Next, semivariograms and fractal analysis are used to characterize and compare the spatial variability of soil specific surface area in two soil horizons (A and B). Specific surface area of about 1000 samples was determined by analyzing water vapor adsorption isotherms via the BET method. The collected data of the values of specific surface area of mineral soil representatives for the territory of Poland were then used to describe its spatial variability by employing geostatistical techniques and fractal theory. Using the data calculated for some selected points within the entire territory and along selected directions, the values of semivariance were determined. The slope of the regression line of the log-log plot of semi-variance versus the distance was used to estimate the fractal dimension, D. Specific surface area in A and B horizons was space-dependent, with the range of spatial dependence of about 2.5°. Variogram surfaces showed anisotropy of the specific surface area in both horizons with a trend toward the W to E directions. The smallest fractal dimensions were obtained for W to E directions and the highest values - for S to N directions. * The work was financially supported in part by the ESA Programme for European Cooperating States (PECS), No.98084 "SWEX-R, Soil Water and Energy Exchange/Research", AO3275.

What controls springtime fine dust variability in the western United States? Implications for air quality and public health risks under future climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achakulwisut, P.; Mickley, L. J.; Shen, L.; Anenberg, S.

2017-12-01

Studies suggest that deposition of atmospheric dust and its surface concentrations have recently been increasing in the Southwest, and a key concern is that climate change will impact dust mobilization and transport across the western United States. Here we diagnose the dominant meteorological factors driving observed fine dust interannual variability in the western United States during 2002-2015 in March-May, and investigate the implications of our results for future dust levels. Empirical orthogonal function analysis suggests that for each spring month, 50-61% of present-day variance in fine dust can be explained by either a coherent pattern of co-variability across the West or a dipole Northwest-Southwest pattern. We identify the key drivers of fine dust variability to be regional precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture, which in turn are influenced at least in part by large-scale changes in sea surface temperature and/or atmospheric circulation patterns. Fluctuations in the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust also contribute to fine dust variability in March and April. We find that March fine dust concentrations have increased from 2002 to 2015 in Southwest regions (0.09 ± 0.07 μg m-3 a-1). Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that these increases are associated with: (1) regionally drier and warmer conditions driven by constructive interference between El Niño Southern-Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; (2) soil moisture reductions in areas spanning the North American deserts; and (3) stronger trans-Pacific transport. We then use observed drought-sensitivities to project future changes in annual mean fine dust during the late-21st century (2076-2095), using bias-corrected downscaled meteorological outputs from 23 CMIP5 models following two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Together with projections of future population and baseline incidence rates, and results from epidemiological studies of health risks due to PM2.5 exposure, we estimate the excess premature mortality and morbidity associated with projected changes in annual mean fine dust in the southwest United States.

High-pressure liquid-monopropellant strand combustion.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faeth, G. M.

1972-01-01

Examination of the influence of dissolved gases on the state of the liquid surface during high-pressure liquid-monopropellant combustion through the use of a strand burning experiment. Liquid surface temperatures were measured, using fine-wire thermocouples, during the strand combustion of ethyl nitrate, normal propyl nitrate, and propylene glycol dinitrate at pressures up to 81 atm. These measurements were compared with the predictions of a variable-property gas-phase analysis assuming an infinite activation energy for the decomposition reaction. The state of the liquid surface was estimated using a conventional low-pressure phase equilibrium model, as well as a high-pressure version that considered the presence of dissolved combustion-product gases in the liquid phase. The high-pressure model was found to give a superior prediction of measured liquid surface temperatures. Computed total pressures required for the surface to reach its critical mixing point during strand combustion were found to be in the range from 2.15 to 4.62 times the critical pressure of the pure propellant. Computed dissolved gas concentrations at the liquid surface were in the range from 35 to 50% near the critical combustion condition.

Multiproxy reconstruction of tropical Pacific Holocene temperature gradients and water column structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbuszewski, J. A.; Oppo, D.; Huang, K.; Dubois, N.; Galy, V.; Mohtadi, M.; Herbert, T.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2012-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent mode of tropical Pacific climate variability and has the potential to significantly impact the climate of the Indo-Pacific region and globally1. In the past, the mean state of the Pacific Ocean has, at times, resembled El Niño or La Niña conditions2. Although the dynamical relationships responsible for these changes have been studied through paleoproxy reconstructions and climate modeling, many questions remain. Recent paleoproxy based studies of tropical Pacific hydrology and surface temperature variability have hypothesized that observed climatological changes over the Holocene are directly linked to ENSO and/or mean state variability, complementing studies that dynamically relate centennial scale ENSO variability to mean state changes3-8. These studies have suggested that mid Holocene ENSO variability was low and the mean state was more "La Niña" like3-6. In the late Holocene, paleoproxy data has been interpreted as indicating an increase in ENSO variability with a more moderate mean ocean state3-6. However, alternative explanations could exist. Here, we test the hypothesis that observed climatological changes in the eastern tropical Pacific are related to mean state or ENSO variability during the Holocene. We focus our study on two sets of cores from the equatorial Pacific, with one located in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (BJ803-119 GGC, 117MC, sedimentation rates ~29 cm/kyr) and the other just off the Galapagos in the heart of the Eastern Cold Tongue (KNR195-5 43 GGC, 42MC, sedimentation rates ~20cm/kyr). The western site lies in the region predicted by models to show the greatest variations in temperature and water column structure in response to mean state changes, while the eastern site lies in the area most prone to changes due to ENSO variability7. Together, these sites allow us the best chance to robustly reconstruct ENSO and mean state related changes. We use a multiproxy approach and consider records from organic (sterol abundances) and inorganic proxies (Mg/Ca and δ18O of 3 planktonic foraminiferal species, % G. bulloides) to reconstruct zonal tropical Pacific (sub)surface temperature and stratification gradients over the Holocene. A benefit of using this approach is that it enables us to combine the strengths of each individual proxy to derive more robust records. We will compare our records with published paleoproxy and model studies in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions. Armed with this information, we aim to better understand mean state changes in the tropical Pacific over the Holocene. 1 Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606-1626 (1987). 2 Collins, M. et al. Nature Geoscience 3, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1868 (2010). 3 Koutavas, A., Lynch-Steiglitz, J., Marchitto, T. & Sachs, J. Science 297, 226-230 (2002). 4 Moy, C. M., Seltzer, G. O., Rodbell, D. T. & Anderson, D. M. Nature 420, 162-165 (2002). 5 Conroy, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., Cole, J. E., Shanahan, T. M. & Steinitz-Kannan, M. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1166-1180 (2008). 6 Makou, M. C., Eglinton, T. I., Oppo, D. W. & Hughen, K. A. Geology 38, 43-46 (2010). 7 Karnauskas, K., Smerdon, J., Seager, R. & Gonzalez-Rouco, J. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1178/JCLI-D-1111-00421.00421 (2012 (in press)). 8 Clement, A., Seager, R. & Cane, M. Paleoceanography 14, 441-456 (2000).

Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-12-01

Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

Modeling the Effects of Irrigation on Land Surface Fluxes and States over the Conterminous United States: Sensitivity to Input Data and Model Parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

2013-09-16

Previous studies on irrigation impacts on land surface fluxes/states were mainly conducted as sensitivity experiments, with limited analysis of uncertainties from the input data and model irrigation schemes used. In this study, we calibrated and evaluated the performance of irrigation water use simulated by the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) against observations from agriculture census. We investigated the impacts of irrigation on land surface fluxes and states over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and explored possible directions of improvement. Specifically, we found large uncertainty in the irrigation area data from two widely used sources and CLM4 tended to producemore » unrealistically large temporal variations of irrigation demand for applications at the water resources region scale over CONUS. At seasonal to interannual time scales, the effects of irrigation on surface energy partitioning appeared to be large and persistent, and more pronounced in dry than wet years. Even with model calibration to yield overall good agreement with the irrigation amounts from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), differences between the two irrigation area datasets still dominate the differences in the interannual variability of land surface response to irrigation. Our results suggest that irrigation amount simulated by CLM4 can be improved by (1) calibrating model parameter values to account for regional differences in irrigation demand and (2) accurate representation of the spatial distribution and intensity of irrigated areas.« less

Bulk-friction modeling of afterslip and the modified Omori law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wennerberg, Leif; Sharp, Robert V.

1997-01-01

Afterslip data from the Superstition Hills fault in southern California, a creep event on the same fault, the modified Omori law, and cumulative moments from aftershocks of the 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake all indicate that the original formulation by Dieterich (1981) [Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge. AGU, Geophys. Monogr. 24, 103–120] for friction evolution is more appropriate for systems far from instability than the commonly used approximation developed by Ruina (1983) [Slip instability and state variable friction laws. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 10359–10370] to study instability. The mathematical framework we use to test the friction models is a one-dimensional, massless spring-slider under the simplifying assumption, proposed by Scholz (1990) [The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge University Press] and used by Marone et al. (1991) [On the mechanics of earthquake afterslip. J. Geophys. Res., 96: 8441–8452], that the state variable takes on its velocity-dependent steady-state value throughout motion in response to a step in stress. This assumption removes explicit state-variable dependence from the model, obviating the need to consider state-variable evolution equations. Anti-derivatives of the modified Omori law fit our data very well and are very good approximate solutions to our model equations. A plausible friction model with Omori-law solutions used by Wesson (1988) [Dynamics of fault creep. J. Geophys. Res. 93, 8929–8951] to model fault creep and generalized by Rice (1983) [Constitutive relations for fault slip and earthquake instabilities. Pure Appl. Geophys. 121, 443–475] to a rate-and-state variable friction model yields exactly Omori's law with exponents greater than 1, but yields unstable solutions for Omori exponents less than 1. We estimate from the Dieterich formulation the dimensionless parameter a∗ which is equal to the product of the nominal coefficient of friction and the more commonly reported friction parameter a. We find that a∗ is typically positive, qualitatively consistent with laboratory observations, although our observations are considerably larger than laboratory values. However, we also find good model fits for a∗ < 0 when data correspond to Omori exponents less than 1. A modification of the stability analysis by Rice and Ruina (1983) [Stability of steady frictional slipping. J. Appl. Mech. 50, 343–349] indicates that a∗ < 0 is not a consequence of our assumption regarding state-variable evolution. A consistent interpretation of a∗ < 0 in terms of laboratory models appears to be that the data are from later portions of processes better characterized by two-state-variable friction models. a∗ < 0 is explained by assuming that our data cannot resolve the co-seismic evolution of a short-length-scale state variable to a velocity-weakening state; our parameterization leads to an apparent negative instantaneous viscosity. We estimate the largest critical slip distance associated with afterslip to be ∼1–10 cm, consistent with other estimates for near-surface materials. We assume that our observed large values for a∗ reflect the fact that our model ignores the geometrical complexities of three-dimensional stresses in fractured crustal materials around a fault zone with frictional stresses that vary on a fault surface. Our one-dimensional model parameters reflect spatially averaged, bulk, stress and frictional properties of a fault zone, where we clearly cannot specify the details of the averaging process. Our analysis of Omori's law suggests that bulk-frictional properties of a fault zone are well described by our simple laboratory-based models, but they would need to change during the seismic cycle for a mainshock instability to recur, unless a mainshock-aftershock sequence were characterized by a process similar to the arrested instabilities possible in two-state-variable systems.

Bulk-friction modeling of afterslip and the modified Omori law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wennerberg, Leif; Sharp, Robert V.

1997-08-01

Afterslip data from the Superstition Hills fault in southern California, a creep event on the same fault, the modified Omori law, and cumulative moments from aftershocks of the 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake all indicate that the original formulation by Dieterich (1981) [Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge. AGU, Geophys. Monogr. 24, 103-120] for friction evolution is more appropriate for systems far from instability than the commonly used approximation developed by Ruina (1983) [Slip instability and state variable friction laws. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 10359-10370] to study instability. The mathematical framework we use to test the friction models is a one-dimensional, massless spring-slider under the simplifying assumption, proposed by Scholz (1990) [The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge University Press] and used by Marone et al. (1991) [On the mechanics of earthquake afterslip. J. Geophys. Res., 96: 8441-8452], that the state variable takes on its velocity-dependent steady-state value throughout motion in response to a step in stress. This assumption removes explicit state-variable dependence from the model, obviating the need to consider state-variable evolution equations. Anti-derivatives of the modified Omori law fit our data very well and are very good approximate solutions to our model equations. A plausible friction model with Omori-law solutions used by Wesson (1988) [Dynamics of fault creep. J. Geophys. Res. 93, 8929-8951] to model fault creep and generalized by Rice (1983) [Constitutive relations for fault slip and earthquake instabilities. Pure Appl. Geophys. 121, 443-475] to a rate-and-state variable friction model yields exactly Omori's law with exponents greater than 1, but yields unstable solutions for Omori exponents less than 1. We estimate from the Dieterich formulation the dimensionless parameter a∗ which is equal to the product of the nominal coefficient of friction and the more commonly reported friction parameter a. We find that a∗ is typically positive, qualitatively consistent with laboratory observations, although our observations are considerably larger than laboratory values. However, we also find good model fits for a∗ < 0 when data correspond to Omori exponents less than 1. A modification of the stability analysis by Rice and Ruina (1983) [Stability of steady frictional slipping. J. Appl. Mech. 50, 343-349] indicates that a∗ < 0 is not a consequence of our assumption regarding state-variable evolution. A consistent interpretation of a∗ < 0 in terms of laboratory models appears to be that the data are from later portions of processes better characterized by two-state-variable friction models. a∗ < 0 is explained by assuming that our data cannot resolve the co-seismic evolution of a short-length-scale state variable to a velocity-weakening state; our parameterization leads to an apparent negative instantaneous viscosity. We estimate the largest critical slip distance associated with afterslip to be ˜1-10 cm, consistent with other estimates for near-surface materials. We assume that our observed large values for a∗ reflect the fact that our model ignores the geometrical complexities of three-dimensional stresses in fractured crustal materials around a fault zone with frictional stresses that vary on a fault surface. Our one-dimensional model parameters reflect spatially averaged, bulk, stress and frictional properties of a fault zone, where we clearly cannot specify the details of the averaging process. Our analysis of Omori's law suggests that bulk-frictional properties of a fault zone are well described by our simple laboratory-based models, but they would need to change during the seismic cycle for a mainshock instability to recur, unless a mainshock-aftershock sequence were characterized by a process similar to the arrested instabilities possible in two-state-variable systems.

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Ma, H. -Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; ...

2015-11-06

Here, we present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge onlymore » the model horizontal velocities towards operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6-hour relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an offline land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a “Core” integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modelled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.« less

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, H.-Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; Lo, M.-H.; Zhang, Y.; Xie, S.; Zheng, X.; Ma, P.-L.; Zhang, Y.; Phillips, T. J.

2015-12-01

We present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge only the model horizontal velocities toward operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6 h relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an off-line land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a "Core" integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modeled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.

An evolving effective stress approach to anisotropic distortional hardening

DOE PAGES

Lester, B. T.; Scherzinger, W. M.

2018-03-11

A new yield surface with an evolving effective stress definition is proposed for consistently and efficiently describing anisotropic distortional hardening. Specifically, a new internal state variable is introduced to capture the thermodynamic evolution between different effective stress definitions. The corresponding yield surface and evolution equations of the internal variables are derived from thermodynamic considerations enabling satisfaction of the second law. A closest point projection return mapping algorithm for the proposed model is formulated and implemented for use in finite element analyses. Finally, select constitutive and larger scale boundary value problems are solved to explore the capabilities of the model andmore » examine the impact of distortional hardening on constitutive and structural responses. Importantly, these simulations demonstrate the tractability of the proposed formulation in investigating large-scale problems of interest.« less

An evolving effective stress approach to anisotropic distortional hardening

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lester, B. T.; Scherzinger, W. M.

A new yield surface with an evolving effective stress definition is proposed for consistently and efficiently describing anisotropic distortional hardening. Specifically, a new internal state variable is introduced to capture the thermodynamic evolution between different effective stress definitions. The corresponding yield surface and evolution equations of the internal variables are derived from thermodynamic considerations enabling satisfaction of the second law. A closest point projection return mapping algorithm for the proposed model is formulated and implemented for use in finite element analyses. Finally, select constitutive and larger scale boundary value problems are solved to explore the capabilities of the model andmore » examine the impact of distortional hardening on constitutive and structural responses. Importantly, these simulations demonstrate the tractability of the proposed formulation in investigating large-scale problems of interest.« less

Joint Retrieval Of Surface Reflectance And Aerosol Properties: Application To MSG/SEVIRI in the framework of the aerosol_cci project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luffarelli, Marta; Govaerts, Yves; Goossens, Cedric

2017-04-01

A new versatile algorithm for the joint retrieval of surface reflectance and aerosol properties has been developed and tested at Rayference. This algorithm, named Combined Inversion of Surface and Aerosols (CISAR), includes a fast physically-based Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) accounting for the surface reflectance anisotropy and its coupling with aerosol scattering. This RTM explicitly solves the radiative transfer equation during the inversion process, without relying on pre-calculated integrals stored in LUT, allowing for a continuous variation of the state variables in the solution space. The inversion is based on a Optimal Estimation (OE) approach, which seeks for the best balance between the information coming from the observation and the a priori information. The a priori information is any additional knowledge on the observed system and it can concern the magnitude of the state variable or constraints on temporal and spectral variability. Both observations and priori information are provided with the corresponding uncertainty. For each processed spectral band, CISAR delivers the surface Bidirectional Reflectance Factor (BRF) and aerosol optical thickness, discriminating the effects of small and large particles. It also provides the associated uncertainty covariance matrix for every processed pixels. In the framework of the ESA aerosol_cci project, CISAR is applied on TOA BRF acquired by SEVIRI onboard Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) in the VIS0.6, VIS0.8 and NIR1.6 spectral bands. SEVIRI observations are accumulated during several days to document the surface anisotropy and minimize the impact of clouds. While surface radiative properties are supposed constant during this accumulation period, aerosol properties are derived on an hourly basis. The information content of each MSG/SEVIRI band will be provided based on the analysis of the posterior uncertainty covariance matrix. The analysis will demonstrate in particular the capability of CISAR to decouple the fraction of TOA BRF signal coming from the surface from the one originating from the aerosols. The results of the algorithm are compared with independent data sets of AOD and surface reflectance. Comparison with ground observations from the AERONET network shows a good agreement between these data. The surface reflectance evaluation is performed comparing white-sky albedo retrieved by CISAR with the MODIS surface product. This evaluation shows a very good consistency. The retrieved aerosol optical depth is consistent also in term of spatial distribution, being comparable in terms of geographical location and intensity.

Supercritical Fuel Pyrolysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-30

supercritical fluids . These temperatures and pressures will also cause the fuel to undergo pyrolytic reactions, which have the potential of forming...With regard to physical properties, supercritical fluids have highly variable densities, no surface tension, and transport properties (i.e., mass...effects in supercritical fluids , often affecting chemical reaction pathways by facilitating the formation of certain transition states [6]. Because

Use of aluminum sulfate (alum) to decrease ammonia emissions from beef cattle bedded manure packs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Confined cattle facilities are an increasingly common housing system in the Northern Great Plains of the United States. Ammonia volatilization from the surface of the floor and bedding in these confined facilities depends on several variables including pH, temperature, and moisture content. When pH ...

Scale issues in soil hydrology related to measurement and simulation: A case study in Colorado

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

State variables, such as soil water content (SWC), are typically measured or inferred at very small scales while being simulated at larger scales relevant to spatial management or hillslope areas. Thus there is an implicit spatial disparity that is often ignored. Surface runoff, on the other hand, ...

Genetic and ploidy variability within six vegetatively propagated zoysiagrass cultivars

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Zoysiagrass is used as a warm-season turfgrass for lawns, parks, and golfing surfaces in the warm-humid and transitional climatic regions of the United States. Zoysiagrass is an allotetraploid species (2n= 4x= 40) and some cultivars are known to easily self and cross-pollinate. Previous studies had ...

Handbook of solar energy data for south-facing surfaces in the United States. Volume 1: An insolation, array shadowing, and reflector augmentation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.

1980-01-01

A quick reference for obtaining estimates of available solar insolation for numerous locations and array angles is presented. A model and a computer program are provided which considered the effects of array shadowing reflector augmentation as design variables.

Investigating the Relationship between Ocean Surface Currents and Seasonal Precipitation in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

While many studies have explored the predictive capabilities of teleconnections associated with North American climate, currently established teleconnections offer limited predictability for rainfall in the Western United States. A recent example was the 2015-16 California drought in which a strong ENSO signal did not lead to above average precipitation as was expected. From an exploration of climate and ocean variables available from satellite data, we hypothesize that ocean currents can provide additional information to explain precipitation variability and improve seasonal predictability on the West Coast. Since ocean currents are influenced by surface wind and temperatures, characterizing connections between currents and precipitation patterns has the potential to further our understanding of coastal weather patterns. For the study, we generated gridded point correlation maps to identify ocean areas with high correlation to precipitation time series corresponding to climate regions in the West Coast region. We also used other statistical measures to evaluate ocean `hot spot' regions with significant correlation to West Coast precipitation. Preliminary results show that strong correlations can be found in the tropical regions of the globe.

Long-Term Variability of Satellite Lake Surface Water Temperatures in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierach, M. M.; Matsumoto, K.; Holt, B.; McKinney, P. J.; Tokos, K.

2014-12-01

The Great Lakes are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth that approximately 37 million people depend upon for fresh drinking water, food, flood and drought mitigation, and natural resources that support industry, jobs, shipping and tourism. Recent reports have stated (e.g., the National Climate Assessment) that climate change can impact and exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes, including changes in the range and distribution of certain fish species, increased invasive species and harmful algal blooms, declining beach health, and lengthened commercial navigation season. In this study, we will examine the impact of climate change on the Laurentian Great Lakes through investigation of long-term lake surface water temperatures (LSWT). We will use the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate: Lake Surface Water Temperature & Ice Cover (ARC-Lake) product over the period 1995-2012 to investigate individual and interlake variability. Specifically, we will quantify the seasonal amplitude of LSWTs, the first and last appearances of the 4°C isotherm (i.e., an important identifier of the seasonal evolution of the lakes denoting winter and summer stratification), and interpret these quantities in the context of global interannual climate variability such as ENSO.

Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

2014-01-01

Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

A connectionist-geostatistical approach for classification of deformation types in ice surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goetz-Weiss, L. R.; Herzfeld, U. C.; Hale, R. G.; Hunke, E. C.; Bobeck, J.

2014-12-01

Deformation is a class of highly non-linear geophysical processes from which one can infer other geophysical variables in a dynamical system. For example, in an ice-dynamic model, deformation is related to velocity, basal sliding, surface elevation changes, and the stress field at the surface as well as internal to a glacier. While many of these variables cannot be observed, deformation state can be an observable variable, because deformation in glaciers (once a viscosity threshold is exceeded) manifests itself in crevasses.Given the amount of information that can be inferred from observing surface deformation, an automated method for classifying surface imagery becomes increasingly desirable. In this paper a Neural Network is used to recognize classes of crevasse types over the Bering Bagley Glacier System (BBGS) during a surge (2011-2013-?). A surge is a spatially and temporally highly variable and rapid acceleration of the glacier. Therefore, many different crevasse types occur in a short time frame and in close proximity, and these crevasse fields hold information on the geophysical processes of the surge.The connectionist-geostatistical approach uses directional experimental (discrete) variograms to parameterize images into a form that the Neural Network can recognize. Recognizing that each surge wave results in different crevasse types and that environmental conditions affect the appearance in imagery, we have developed a semi-automated pre-training software to adapt the Neural Net to chaining conditions.The method is applied to airborne and satellite imagery to classify surge crevasses from the BBGS surge. This method works well for classifying spatially repetitive images such as the crevasses over Bering Glacier. We expand the network for less repetitive images in order to analyze imagery collected over the Arctic sea ice, to assess the percentage of deformed ice for model calibration.

Charge Dynamics in near-Surface, Variable-Density Ensembles of Nitrogen-Vacancy Centers in Diamond.

PubMed

Dhomkar, Siddharth; Jayakumar, Harishankar; Zangara, Pablo R; Meriles, Carlos A

2018-06-13

Although the spin properties of superficial shallow nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers have been the subject of extensive scrutiny, considerably less attention has been devoted to studying the dynamics of NV charge conversion near the diamond surface. Using multicolor confocal microscopy, here we show that near-surface point defects arising from high-density ion implantation dramatically increase the ionization and recombination rates of shallow NVs compared to those in bulk diamond. Further, we find that these rates grow linearly, not quadratically, with laser intensity, indicative of single-photon processes enabled by NV state mixing with other defect states. Accompanying these findings, we observe NV ionization and recombination in the dark, likely the result of charge transfer to neighboring traps. Despite the altered charge dynamics, we show that one can imprint rewritable, long-lasting patterns of charged-initialized, near-surface NVs over large areas, an ability that could be exploited for electrochemical biosensing or to optically store digital data sets with subdiffraction resolution.

Global Precipitation Measurement, Validation, and Applications Integrated Hydrologic Validation to Improve Physical Precipitation Retrievals for GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidar, Christa D.; Tian, Yudong; Kenneth, Tian; Harrison, Kenneth; Kumar, Sujay

2011-01-01

Land surface modeling and data assimilation can provide dynamic land surface state variables necessary to support physical precipitation retrieval algorithms over land. It is well-known that surface emission, particularly over the range of frequencies to be included in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), is sensitive to land surface states, including soil properties, vegetation type and greenness, soil moisture, surface temperature, and snow cover, density, and grain size. In order to investigate the robustness of both the land surface model states and the microwave emissivity and forward radiative transfer models, we have undertaken a multi-site investigation as part of the NASA Precipitation Measurement Missions (PMM) Land Surface Characterization Working Group. Specifically, we will demonstrate the performance of the Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Peters-Lidard et aI., 2007; Kumar et al., 2006) coupled to the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA's) Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM; Weng, 2007; van Deist, 2009). The land surface is characterized by complex physical/chemical constituents and creates temporally and spatially heterogeneous surface properties in response to microwave radiation scattering. The uncertainties in surface microwave emission (both surface radiative temperature and emissivity) and very low polarization ratio are linked to difficulties in rainfall detection using low-frequency passive microwave sensors (e.g.,Kummerow et al. 2001). Therefore, addressing these issues is of utmost importance for the GPM mission. There are many approaches to parameterizing land surface emission and radiative transfer, some of which have been customized for snow (e.g., the Helsinki University of Technology or HUT radiative transfer model;) and soil moisture (e.g., the Land Surface Microwave Emission Model or LSMEM).

Impact of Dust on Mars Surface Albedo and Energy Flux with LMD General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, D.; Flanner, M.; Millour, E.; Martinez, G.

2015-12-01

Mars, just like Earth experience different seasons because of its axial tilt (about 25°). This causes growth and retreat of snow cover (primarily CO2) in Martian Polar regions. The perennial caps are the only place on the planet where condensed H2O is available at surface. On Mars, as much as 30% atmospheric CO2 deposits in each hemisphere depending upon the season. This leads to a significant variation on planet's surface albedo and hence effecting the amount of solar flux absorbed or reflected at the surface. General Circulation Model (GCM) of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) currently uses observationally derived surface albedo from Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument for the polar caps. These TES albedo values do not have any inter-annual variability, and are independent of presence of any dust/impurity on surface. Presence of dust or other surface impurities can significantly reduce the surface albedo especially during and right after a dust storm. This change will also be evident in the surface energy flux interactions. Our work focuses on combining earth based Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with current state of GCM to incorporate the impact of dust on Martian surface albedo, and hence the energy flux. Inter-annual variability of surface albedo and planet's top of atmosphere (TOA) energy budget along with their correlation with currently available mission data will be presented.

Development of a nearshore oscillating surge wave energy converter with variable geometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom, N. M.; Lawson, M. J.; Yu, Y. H.

This paper presents an analysis of a novel wave energy converter concept that combines an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) with control surfaces. The control surfaces allow for a variable device geometry that enables the hydrodynamic properties to be adapted with respect to structural loading, absorption range and power-take-off capability. The device geometry is adjusted on a sea state-to-sea state time scale and combined with wave-to-wave manipulation of the power take-off (PTO) to provide greater control over the capture efficiency, capacity factor, and design loads. This work begins with a sensitivity study of the hydrodynamic coefficients with respect tomore » device width, support structure thickness, and geometry. A linear frequency domain analysis is used to evaluate device performance in terms of absorbed power, foundation loads, and PTO torque. Previous OSWEC studies included nonlinear hydrodynamics, in response a nonlinear model that includes a quadratic viscous damping torque that was linearized via the Lorentz linearization. Inclusion of the quadratic viscous torque led to construction of an optimization problem that incorporated motion and PTO constraints. Results from this study found that, when transitioning from moderate-to-large sea states the novel OSWEC was capable of reducing structural loads while providing a near constant power output.« less

Predictability of Malaria Transmission Intensity in the Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, Using Land Surface Climatology and Autoregressive Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grass, David; Jasinski, Michael F.; Govere, John

2003-01-01

There has been increasing effort in recent years to employ satellite remotely sensed data to identify and map vector habitat and malaria transmission risk in data sparse environments. In the current investigation, available satellite and other land surface climatology data products are employed in short-term forecasting of infection rates in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa, using a multivariate autoregressive approach. The climatology variables include precipitation, air temperature and other land surface states computed by the Off-line Land-Surface Global Assimilation System (OLGA) including soil moisture and surface evaporation. Satellite data products include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and other forcing data used in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) model. Predictions are compared to long- term monthly records of clinical and microscopic diagnoses. The approach addresses the high degree of short-term autocorrelation in the disease and weather time series. The resulting model is able to predict 11 of the 13 months that were classified as high risk during the validation period, indicating the utility of applying antecedent climatic variables to the prediction of malaria incidence for the Mpumalanga Province.

Hydrologic impacts of land cover variability and change at seasonal to decadal time scales over North America, 1992-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Land cover variability and change have been shown to influence the terrestrial hydrologic cycle by altering the partitioning of moisture and energy fluxes. However, the magnitude and directionality of the relationship between land cover and surface hydrology has been shown to vary substantially across regions. Here, we provide an assessment of the impacts of land cover change on hydrologic processes at seasonal (vegetation phenology) to decadal scales (land cover conversion) in the United States and Mexico. To this end, we combine time series of remotely-sensed land surface characteristics with land cover maps for different decades as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. Land surface characteristics (leaf area index, surface albedo, and canopy fraction derived from normalized difference vegetation index) were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) at 8-day intervals over the period 2000-2016. Land cover maps representing conditions in 1992, 2001, and 2011 were derived by homogenizing the National Land Cover Database over the US and the INEGI Series I through V maps over Mexico. An additional map covering all of North America was derived from the most frequent land cover class observed in each pixel of the MODIS MOD12Q1 product during 2001-2013. Land surface characteristics were summarized over land cover fractions at 1/16 degree (6 km) resolution. For each land cover map, hydrologic simulations were conducted that covered the period 1980-2013, using the best-available, hourly meteorological forcings at a similar spatial resolution. Based on these simulations, we present a comparison of the contributions of land cover change and climate variability at seasonal to decadal scales on the hydrologic and energy budgets, identifying the dominant components through time and space. This work also offers a valuable dataset on land cover variability and its hydrologic response for continental-scale assessments and modeling.

Inter- and Intra-method Variability of VS Profiles and VS30 at ARRA-funded Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, A.; Boatwright, J.; Martin, A. J.

2015-12-01

The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) funded geophysical site characterizations at 191 seismographic stations in California and in the central and eastern United States. Shallow boreholes were considered cost- and environmentally-prohibitive, thus non-invasive methods (passive and active surface- and body-wave techniques) were used at these stations. The drawback, however, is that these techniques measure seismic properties indirectly and introduce more uncertainty than borehole methods. The principal methods applied were Array Microtremor (AM), Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW; Rayleigh and Love waves), Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW), Refraction Microtremor (ReMi), and P- and S-wave refraction tomography. Depending on the apparent geologic or seismic complexity of the site, field crews applied one or a combination of these methods to estimate the shear-wave velocity (VS) profile and calculate VS30, the time-averaged VS to a depth of 30 meters. We study the inter- and intra-method variability of VS and VS30 at each seismographic station where combinations of techniques were applied. For each site, we find both types of variability in VS30 remain insignificant (5-10% difference) despite substantial variability observed in the VS profiles. We also find that reliable VS profiles are best developed using a combination of techniques, e.g., surface-wave VS profiles correlated against P-wave tomography to constrain variables (Poisson's ratio and density) that are key depth-dependent parameters used in modeling VS profiles. The most reliable results are based on surface- or body-wave profiles correlated against independent observations such as material properties inferred from outcropping geology nearby. For example, mapped geology describes station CI.LJR as a hard rock site (VS30 > 760 m/s). However, decomposed rock outcrops were found nearby and support the estimated VS30 of 303 m/s derived from the MASW (Love wave) profile.

Understanding surface-water availability in the Central Valley as a means to projecting future groundwater storage with climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodrich, J. P.; Cayan, D. R.

2017-12-01

California's Central Valley (CV) relies heavily on diverted surface water and groundwater pumping to supply irrigated agriculture. However, understanding the spatiotemporal character of water availability in the CV is difficult because of the number of individual farms and local, state, and federal agencies involved in using and managing water. Here we use the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), developed by the USGS, to understand the relationships between climatic variability, surface water inputs, and resulting groundwater use over the historical period 1970-2013. We analyzed monthly surface water diversion data from >500 CV locations. Principle components analyses were applied to drivers constructed from meteorological data, surface reservoir storage, ET, land use cover, and upstream inflows, to feed multiple regressions and identify factors most important in predicting surface water diversions. Two thirds of the diversion locations ( 80% of total diverted water) can be predicted to within 15%. Along with monthly inputs, representations of cumulative precipitation over the previous 3 to 36 months can explain an additional 10% of variance, depending on location, compared to results that excluded this information. Diversions in the southern CV are highly sensitive to inter-annual variability in precipitation (R2 = 0.8), whereby more surface water is used during wet years. Until recently, this was not the case in the northern and mid-CV, where diversions were relatively constant annually, suggesting relative insensitivity to drought. In contrast, this has important implications for drought response in southern regions (eg. Tulare Basin) where extended dry conditions can severely limit surface water supplies and lead to excess groundwater pumping, storage loss, and subsidence. In addition to fueling our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in diversions, our ability to predict these water balance components allows us to update CVHM predictions before surface water data are compiled. We can then develop groundwater pumping and storage predictions in real time, and make them available to water managers. In addition, we are working toward future projections by coupling the regional CVHM to downscaled GCM output to assess future scenarios of water availability in this critical region.

Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoppe, H.-G.; Giesenhagen, H. C.; Koppe, R.; Hansen, H.-P.; Gocke, K.

2012-12-01

Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the Western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the collapse and conversion of the political system in the Southern and Eastern Border States, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, the bacterial variables, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. The strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen even in the surface layer was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. In the long run all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables as well as precipitation and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ -60%), followed by chlorophyll (-50%) and bacterial biomass (-40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we conclude that the improved management of water resources after 1989 together with the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature were responsible for the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station.

Pumping-induced stress and strain in aquifer systems in Wuxi, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yun; Yu, Jun; Gong, Xulong; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Zhecheng

2018-05-01

Excessive groundwater withdrawal from an aquifer system leads to three-dimensional displacement, causing changes in the states of stress and strain. Often, land subsidence and sometimes earth fissures ensue. Field investigation indicates that land subsidence and earth fissures in Wuxi, a city in eastern China, are mainly due to excessive groundwater withdrawal, and that they are temporally and spatially related to groundwater pumping. Groundwater withdrawal may cause tensile strain to develop in aquifer systems, but tensile strain does not definitely mean tensile stress. Where earth fissures are concerned, the stress state should be adopted in numerical simulations instead of the strain state and displacement. The numerical simulation undertaken for the Wuxi area shows that the zone of tensile strain occupies a large area on the ground surface; nevertheless, the zone of tensile stress is very limited. The zone of tensile stress often occurs near the ground surface, beneath which the depth to the bedrock surface is relatively small and has considerable variability. Earth fissures often initiate near the ground surface where tensile stress occurs. Tensile stress and earth fissures rarely develop at the centers of land subsidence bowls, where compressive stress is dominant.

Finite state modeling of aeroelastic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vepa, R.

1977-01-01

A general theory of finite state modeling of aerodynamic loads on thin airfoils and lifting surfaces performing completely arbitrary, small, time-dependent motions in an airstream is developed and presented. The nature of the behavior of the unsteady airloads in the frequency domain is explained, using as raw materials any of the unsteady linearized theories that have been mechanized for simple harmonic oscillations. Each desired aerodynamic transfer function is approximated by means of an appropriate Pade approximant, that is, a rational function of finite degree polynomials in the Laplace transform variable. The modeling technique is applied to several two dimensional and three dimensional airfoils. Circular, elliptic, rectangular and tapered planforms are considered as examples. Identical functions are also obtained for control surfaces for two and three dimensional airfoils.

The Use of Multi-Source Satellite and Geospatial Data to Study the Effect of Urbanization of Primary Productivity in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, M. L.; Tucker, C. J.; Lawrence, W. T.; Stutzer, D.; Rusin, Robert

2000-01-01

Data from two different satellites, a digital land cover map, and digital census data were analyzed and combined in a geographic information system to study the effect of urbanization on photosynthetic vegetation productivity in the United States. Results show that urbanization can have a measurable but variable impact on the primary productivity of the land surface. Annual productivity can be reduced by as much as 20 days in some areas, but in resource limited regions, photosynthetic production can be enhanced by human activity. Overall, urban development reduces the productivity of the land surface and those areas with the highest productivity are directly in the path of urban sprawl.

The role of soil moisture in land surface-atmosphere coupling: climate model sensitivity experiments over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Charles; Turner, Andrew

2015-04-01

It is generally acknowledged that anthropogenic land use changes, such as a shift from forested land into irrigated agriculture, may have an impact on regional climate and, in particular, rainfall patterns in both time and space. India provides an excellent example of a country in which widespread land use change has occurred during the last century, as the country tries to meet its growing demand for food. Of primary concern for agriculture is the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which displays considerable seasonal and subseasonal variability. Although it is evident that changing rainfall variability will have a direct impact on land surface processes (such as soil moisture variability), the reverse impact is less well understood. However, the role of soil moisture in the coupling between the land surface and atmosphere needs to be properly explored before any potential impact of changing soil moisture variability on ISM rainfall can be understood. This paper attempts to address this issue, by conducting a number of sensitivity experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM2. Several experiments are undertaken, with the only difference between them being the extent to which soil moisture is coupled to the atmosphere. Firstly, the land surface is fully coupled to the atmosphere, globally (as in standard model configurations); secondly, the land surface is entirely uncoupled from the atmosphere, again globally, with soil moisture values being prescribed on a daily basis; thirdly, the land surface is uncoupled from the atmosphere over India but fully coupled elsewhere; and lastly, vice versa (i.e. the land surface is coupled to the atmosphere over India but uncoupled elsewhere). Early results from this study suggest certain 'hotspot' regions where the impact of soil moisture coupling/uncoupling may be important, and many of these regions coincide with previous studies. Focusing on the third experiment, i.e. uncoupled over India and coupled elsewhere, preliminary results suggest an increase in rainfall, surface temperature and pressure over northern India and the Himalayas, as well as a decrease in rainfall over the Bay of Bengal and the Maritime Continent. Other metrics, such as the northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall variability and sensible and latent heat fluxes, are also discussed.

Agrichemicals in surface water and birth defects in the United States

PubMed Central

Winchester, Paul D; Huskins, Jordan; Ying, Jun

2009-01-01

Objectives: To investigate if live births conceived in months when surface water agrichemicals are highest are at greater risk for birth defects. Methods: Monthly concentrations during 1996–2002 of nitrates, atrazine and other pesticides were calculated using United States Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment data. Monthly United States birth defect rates were calculated for live births from 1996 to 2002 using United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention natality data sets. Birth defect rates by month of last menstrual period (LMP) were then compared to pesticide/nitrate means using logistical regression models. Results: Mean concentrations of agrichemicals were highest in April–July. Total birth defects, and eleven of 22 birth defect subcategories, were more likely to occur in live births with LMPs between April and July. A significant association was found between the season of elevated agrichemicals and birth defects. Conclusion: Elevated concentrations of agrichemicals in surface water in April–July coincided with higher risk of birth defects in live births with LMPs April–July. While a causal link between agrichemicals and birth defects cannot be proven from this study an association might provide clues to common factors shared by both variables. PMID:19183116

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Assimilation of Surface Temperature in Land Surface Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman

1998-01-01

Hydrological models have been calibrated and validated using catchment streamflows. However, using a point measurement does not guarantee correct spatial distribution of model computed heat fluxes, soil moisture and surface temperatures. With the advent of satellites in the late 70s, surface temperature is being measured two to four times a day from various satellite sensors and different platforms. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate use of satellite surface temperature in (a) validation of model computed surface temperatures and (b) assimilation of satellite surface temperatures into a hydrological model in order to improve the prediction accuracy of soil moistures and heat fluxes. The assimilation is carried out by comparing the satellite and the model produced surface temperatures and setting the "true"temperature midway between the two values. Based on this "true" surface temperature, the physical relationships of water and energy balance are used to reset the other variables. This is a case of nudging the water and energy balance variables so that they are consistent with each other and the true" surface temperature. The potential of this assimilation scheme is demonstrated in the form of various experiments that highlight the various aspects. This study is carried over the Red-Arkansas basin in the southern United States (a 5 deg X 10 deg area) over a time period of a year (August 1987 - July 1988). The land surface hydrological model is run on an hourly time step. The results show that satellite surface temperature assimilation improves the accuracy of the computed surface soil moisture remarkably.

Effects of El Niño on summertime ozone air quality in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.

2017-12-01

We investigate the effect of El Nino on maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) surface ozone over the eastern United States in summer (June-August, JJA) from 1980 to 2016. El Nino can influence the extra-tropical climate through the propagation of stationary waves, leading to (1) a low-pressure anomaly in the western Atlantic, which reduces transport of moist, clean air from the ocean into the mid- and southern Atlantic states, and (2) intensified southerly flow in the South Central states, which conversely enhances flux of moist, clean air into this region. El Nino can also trigger greater subsidence, reduced precipitation, and increased surface solar radiation in the mid- and southern Atlantic States. As a result, every standard deviation increase in the Nino 1+2 index is associated with an increase of 1-2 ppbv ozone in the Atlantic States and a decrease of 0.5-2 ppbv ozone in the South Central states. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project have difficulties capturing the El Nino influence on summertime weather in the eastern United States, implying that the freely running chemistry-climate models also cannot simulate the ozone variability related to El Nino.

The Reactivity and Structure of Size Selected VxO y Clusters on a TiO2 (110)-(1 X 1) Surface of Variable Oxidation State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neilson, Hunter L.

The Reactivity and Structure of Size Selected VxOy Clusters on a TiO2 (110) Surface of Variable Oxidation State by Hunter L Neilson The selective oxidative dehydrogenation of methanol by vanadium oxide/TiO2 model systems has received a great deal of interest in the surface science community. Previous studies using temperature programmed desorption and reaction (TPD/R) to probe the oxidation of methanol to formaldehyde by vanadia/TiO2 model catalysts have shown that the activity of these systems vary considerably based on the way in which the model system is prepared with formaldehyde desorption temperatures observed anywhere from room temperature to 660 K. The principle reason for this variation is that the preparation of sub-monolayer films of vanadia on TiO2 produces clusters with a multitude of VxOy structures and a mixture of vanadium oxidation states. As a result the stoichiometry of the active vanadium oxide catalyst as well as the oxidation state of vanadium in the active catalyst remain unknown. To better understand this system, our group has probed the reactivity and structure of size-selected Vx, VOy and VxOy clusters on a reduced TiO2 (110) support in ultra-high vacuum (UHV) via TPD/R and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). Ex situ preparation of these clusters in the gas phase prior to deposition has allowed us to systematically vary the stoichiometry of the vanadia clusters; a layer of control not available via the usual routes to vanadium oxide. The most active catalysts are shown to have (VO3)n stoichiometry in agreement with the theoretical models of the Metiu group. We have shown that both the activity and selectivity of V2O6 and V3O9 cluster catalysts depend sensitively on the oxidation state of the TiO2 (110) support. For example, V2O6 on a reduced surface is selective for the oxidation of methanol to formaldehyde while the selectivity shifts to favor methyl formate as the surface becomes increasingly oxidized. STM studies show that the structure of size-selected V2O6 clusters, upon adsorption to the surface, varies considerably with the oxidation state of the support, in good agreement with our reactivity studies. V 3O9 was shown to catalyze the oxidation of methanol to both formaldehyde and methyl formate on a reduced surface while STM suggests that, unlike V2O6, these clusters are prone to decomposition upon adsorption to the surface. Furthermore, TPD/R of size selected V 2O5 and V2O7 on TiO2 suggests that altering the stoichiometry of the (VO3)n clusters by a single oxygen atom significantly inhibits the activity of these catalysts.

Direction of unsaturated flow in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Ning; Kaya, Basak Sener; Godt, Jonathan W.

2011-01-01

The distribution of soil moisture in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope is a transient, variably saturated physical process controlled by rainfall characteristics, hillslope geometry, and the hydrological properties of the hillslope materials. The major driving mechanisms for moisture movement are gravity and gradients in matric potential. The latter is solely controlled by gradients of moisture content. In a homogeneous and isotropic saturated hillslope, absent a gradient in moisture content and under the driving force of gravity with a constant pressure boundary at the slope surface, flow is always in the lateral downslope direction, under either transient or steady state conditions. However, under variably saturated conditions, both gravity and moisture content gradients drive fluid motion, leading to complex flow patterns. In general, the flow field near the ground surface is variably saturated and transient, and the direction of flow could be laterally downslope, laterally upslope, or vertically downward. Previous work has suggested that prevailing rainfall conditions are sufficient to completely control these flow regimes. This work, however, shows that under time-varying rainfall conditions, vertical, downslope, and upslope lateral flow can concurrently occur at different depths and locations within the hillslope. More importantly, we show that the state of wetting or drying in a hillslope defines the temporal and spatial regimes of flow and when and where laterally downslope and/or laterally upslope flow occurs.

Direction of unsaturated flow in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, N.; Kaya, B.S.; Godt, J.W.

2011-01-01

The distribution of soil moisture in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope is a transient, variably saturated physical process controlled by rainfall characteristics, hillslope geometry, and the hydrological properties of the hillslope materials. The major driving mechanisms for moisture movement are gravity and gradients in matric potential. The latter is solely controlled by gradients of moisture content. In a homogeneous and isotropic saturated hillslope, absent a gradient in moisture content and under the driving force of gravity with a constant pressure boundary at the slope surface, flow is always in the lateral downslope direction, under either transient or steady state conditions. However, under variably saturated conditions, both gravity and moisture content gradients drive fluid motion, leading to complex flow patterns. In general, the flow field near the ground surface is variably saturated and transient, and the direction of flow could be laterally downslope, laterally upslope, or vertically downward. Previous work has suggested that prevailing rainfall conditions are sufficient to completely control these flow regimes. This work, however, shows that under time-varying rainfall conditions, vertical, downslope, and upslope lateral flow can concurrently occur at different depths and locations within the hillslope. More importantly, we show that the state of wetting or drying in a hillslope defines the temporal and spatial regimes of flow and when and where laterally downslope and/or laterally upslope flow occurs. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Twentieth Century Regional Climate Change During the Summer in the Central United States Attributed to Agricultural Intensification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alter, Ross E.; Douglas, Hunter C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-02-01

Both land use changes and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have significantly modified regional climate over the last century. In the central United States, for example, observational data indicate that rainfall increased, surface air temperature decreased, and surface humidity increased during the summer over the course of the twentieth century concurrently with increases in both agricultural production and global GHG emissions. However, the relative contributions of each of these forcings to the observed regional changes remain unclear. Results of both regional climate model simulations and observational analyses suggest that much of the observed rainfall increase—as well as the decrease in temperature and increase in humidity—is attributable to agricultural intensification in the central United States, with natural variability and GHG emissions playing secondary roles. Thus, we conclude that twentieth century land use changes contributed more to forcing observed regional climate change during the summer in the central United States than increasing GHG emissions.

Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo; Svensson, Gunilla

2014-05-01

Observations during recent decades show that there is a greater near surface warming occurring in the Arctic, particularly during winter, than at lower latitudes. Understanding the mechanisms controlling surface temperature in the Arctic is therefore an important priority in climate research. The surface energy budget is a key proximate control on Arctic surface temperature. During winter, insolation is low or absent and the atmospheric boundary layer is typically very stable, limiting turbulent hear exchange, so that the surface energy budget is almost entirely governed by longwave radiation. The net surface longwave radiation (NetLW) at this time has a strikingly bimodal distribution: conditions oscillate between a 'radiatively clear' state with rapid surface heat loss and a "moist cloudy" state with NetLW ˜ 0 W m-2. Each state can persist for days or weeks at a time but transitions between them happen in a matter of hours. This distribution of NetLW has important implications for the Arctic climate, as even a small shift in the frequency of occupancy of each state would be enough to significantly affect the overall surface energy budget and thus winter sea ice thickness. The clear and cloudy states typically occur during periods of relatively high and low surface pressure respectively, suggesting a link with synoptic-scale dynamics. This suggestion is consistent with previous studies indicating that the formation of low-level and mid-level clouds over the Arctic Ocean is typically associated with cyclonic activity and passing frontal systems . More recent work has shown that intense filamentary moisture intrusion events are a common feature in the Arctic and can induce large episodic increases of longwave radiation into the surface. The poleward transport of water vapor across 70N during boreal winter is examined in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product and 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, focusing on intense moisture intrusion events. A total of 298 events are objectively identified between 1990 and 2010 in the reanalysis dataset, an average of 14 per season, accounting for 28% of the total poleward moisture transport across 70N. Composites of sea level pressure and potential temperature on the 2 potential vorticity unit surface during intrusions show a large-scale blocking pattern to the east of each basin, deflecting midlatitude cyclones and their associated moisture poleward. The interannual variability of intrusions is strongly correlated with variability in winter-mean surface downward longwave radiation and skin temperature averaged over the Arctic. The 16 CMIP5 models are validated with respect to the reanalysis dataset and a subset of 7 models is chosen as best representing intrusions. Intrusions in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) from these 7 models are analyzed between 2060 and 2100. Positive trends in the moisture transported by intrusions are noted. The mechanisms behind these trends are examined in each of the models, dynamically and thermodynamically, with regard to the positioning of the storm track and climatological jets in a moistening atmosphere.

Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Feely, Richard A.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Cronin, Meghan F.; McPhaden, Michael J.; Morell, Julio M.; Newton, Jan A.; Noh, Jae-Hoon; Ólafsdóttir, Sólveig R.; Salisbury, Joseph E.; Send, Uwe; Vandemark, Douglas C.; Weller, Robert A.

2016-09-01

One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is detecting and interpreting long-term change in the context of natural variability. This study addresses this need through a global synthesis of monthly pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) climatologies for 12 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater partial pressure of CO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2010. Mooring observations suggest open ocean subtropical and subarctic sites experience present-day surface pH and Ωarag conditions outside the bounds of preindustrial variability throughout most, if not all, of the year. In general, coastal mooring sites experience more natural variability and thus, more overlap with preindustrial conditions; however, present-day Ωarag conditions surpass biologically relevant thresholds associated with ocean acidification impacts on Mytilus californianus (Ωarag < 1.8) and Crassostrea gigas (Ωarag < 2.0) larvae in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and Mya arenaria larvae in the Gulf of Maine (Ωarag < 1.6). At the most variable mooring locations in coastal systems of the CCE, subseasonal conditions approached Ωarag = 1. Global and regional models and data syntheses of ship-based observations tended to underestimate seasonal variability compared to mooring observations. Efforts such as this to characterize all patterns of pH and Ωarag variability and change at key locations are fundamental to assessing present-day biological impacts of ocean acidification, further improving experimental design to interrogate organism response under real-world conditions, and improving predictive models and vulnerability assessments seeking to quantify the broader impacts of ocean acidification.

Characterizing Transitions Between Decadal States of the Tropical Pacific using State Space Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesh, N.; Cane, M. A.

2017-12-01

The complex coupled ocean-atmosphere system of the Tropical Pacific generates variability on timescales from intraseasonal to multidecadal. Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is among the key drivers of global climate, with effects on hydroclimate on several continents, marine ecosystems, and the rate of global mean surface temperature rise under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Predicting phase shifts in the PDV would therefore be highly useful. However, the small number of PDV phase shifts that have occurred in the observational record pose a substantial challenge to developing an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie decadal variability. In this study, we use a 100,000-year unforced simulation from an intermediate-complexity model of the Tropical Pacific region that has been shown to produce PDV comparable to that in the real world. We apply the Simplex Projection method to the NINO3 index from this model to reconstruct a shadow manifold that preserves the topology of the true attractor of this system. We find that the high- and low-variance phases of PDV emerge as a pair of regimes in a 3-dimensional state space, and that the transitions between decadal states lie in a highly predictable region of the attractor. We then use a random forest algorithm to develop a physical interpretation of the processes associated with these highly-predictable transitions. We find that transitions to low-variance states are most likely to occur approximately 2.5 years after an El Nino event, and that ocean-atmosphere variables in the southeastern Tropical Pacific play a crucial role in driving these transitions.

Analysis of nitrate in near-surface aquifers in the midcontinental United States: An application of the inverse hyperbolic sine Tobit model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yen, Steven T.; Liu, Shiping; Kolpin, Dana W.

1996-01-01

A nonnormal and heteroscedastic Tobit model is used to determine the primary factors that affect nitrate concentrations in near-surface aquifers, using data from the U.S. Geological Survey collected in 1991. Both normality and homoscedasticity of errors are rejected, justifying the use of a nonnormal and heteroscedastic model. The following factors are found to have significant impacts on nitrate concentrations in groundwater: well screen interval, depth to top of aquifers, percentages of urban residential, forest land, and pasture within 3.2 km, dissolved oxygen concentration level, and presence of a chemical facility and feedlot. The effects of explanatory variables on nitrate concentration are explored further by calculating elasticities. Dissolved oxygen concentration level has more notable effects on nitrate concentrations in groundwater than other variables.

Variability in Sea Surface Height: A Qualitative Measure for the Meridional Overturning in the North Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa

1999-01-01

Sea surface height (SSH) from altimeter observations from 1992 on and from modeling results is investigated to determine the modes of variability and the linkages to the state of oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. First the altimeter and model simulated SSH are analyzed using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. They are found to share a similar leading mode where the center of action is along the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current with opposite sign anomalies in the subpolar gyre and in the slope waters along the Eastern Seaboard. The time series of the leading EOF mode from the altimeter data shows that between winters of 1995 and 1996, SSH over the Gulf Stream decreased by about 12cm which change is reproduced by the model simulation. Based on the relationship from the model simulations between the time series of the SSH EOF1 and meridional heat transport, it is suggested that associated with this SSH change in 1995-96, the overturning has slowed down from its heights in the early 90's. Furthermore, it is shown that decadal variability in the leading SSH mode originates from the thermal forcing component. This adds confidence to the qualitative relationship between the state of overturning/meridional heat transport and SSH in the limited area described by the EOF1. SSH variability in the eastern side of the North Atlantic basin, outside the western boundary current region, is determined by local and remote (Rossby waves) wind stress curl forcing.

Seasonal predictions of equatorial Atlantic SST in a low-resolution CGCM with surface heat flux correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippe, Tina; Greatbatch, Richard; Ding, Hui

2016-04-01

The dominant mode of interannual variability in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is the Atlantic Niño or Zonal Mode. Akin to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific sector, it is able to impact the climate both of the adjacent equatorial African continent and remote regions. Due to heavy biases in the mean state climate of the equatorial-to-subtropical Atlantic, however, most state-of-the-art coupled global climate models (CGCMs) are unable to realistically simulate equatorial Atlantic variability. In this study, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) is used to investigate the impact of a simple bias alleviation technique on the predictability of equatorial Atlantic SSTs. Two sets of seasonal forecasting experiments are performed: An experiment using the standard KCM (STD), and an experiment with additional surface heat flux correction (FLX) that efficiently removes the SST bias from simulations. Initial conditions for both experiments are generated by the KCM run in partially coupled mode, a simple assimilation technique that forces the KCM with observed wind stress anomalies and preserves SST as a fully prognostic variable. Seasonal predictions for both sets of experiments are run four times yearly for 1981-2012. Results: Heat flux correction substantially improves the simulated variability in the initialization runs for boreal summer and fall (June-October). In boreal spring (March-May), however, neither the initialization runs of the STD or FLX-experiments are able to capture the observed variability. FLX-predictions show no consistent enhancement of skill relative to the predictions of the STD experiment over the course of the year. The skill of persistence forecasts is hardly beat by either of the two experiments in any season, limiting the usefulness of the few forecasts that show significant skill. However, FLX-forecasts initialized in May recover skill in July and August, the peak season of the Atlantic Niño (anomaly correlation coefficients of about 0.3). Further study is necessary to determine the mechanism that drives this potentially useful recovery.

Evaluation of a 12-km Satellite-Era Reanalysis of Surface Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.; Zhao, B.; Max, S.

2016-12-01

The recent contribution to sea level change from the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to be strongly driven by surface processes including melt and runoff. Global reanalyses are potential means of reconstructing the historical time series of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), but lack spatial resolution needed to resolve ablation areas along the periphery of the ice sheet. In this work, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to examine the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet. MERRA-2 is produced for the period 1980 to the present at a grid spacing of ½° latitude by ⅝° longitude, and includes snow hydrology processes including compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, runoff, and a prognostic surface albedo. The configuration of the MERRA-2 system allows for the background model - the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) - to be carried in phase space through analyzed states via the computation of analysis increments, a capability referred to as "replay". Here, a MERRA-2 replay integration is conducted in which atmospheric forcing fields are interpolated and adjusted to sub- atmospheric grid-scale resolution. These adjustments include lapse-rate effects on temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables that are known to have a strong elevation dependency over ice sheets. The surface coupling is performed such that mass and energy are conserved. The atmospheric forcing influences the surface representation, which operates on land surface tiles with an approximate 12-km spacing. This produces a high-resolution, downscaled SMB which is interactively coupled to the reanalysis model. We compare the downscaled SMB product with other reanalyses, regional climate model values, and a second MERRA-2 replay in which the background model has been replaced with a 12-km, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5. The assessment focuses on regional changes in SMB and SMB components, the identification of changes and temporal variability in the SMB equilibrium line, and the relation between SMB and other climate variables related to general circulation.

Estimating ocean production from satellite-derived chlorophyll - Insights from the EASTROPAC data set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eppley, R. W.; Stewart, E.; Abbott, M. R.; Owen, R. W.

1985-01-01

The EASTROPAC expedition took place in 1967-68 in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Primary production was related to near-surface chlorophyll in these data. Much of the variability in the relation was due to the light-history of the phytoplankton and its photoadaptive state. This was due to changes in the depth of mixing of the surface waters more than changes in insolation. Accurate estimates of production from satellite chlorophyll measurements may require knowledge of the temporal and spatial variation in mixing of this region.

Use of the quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework to reconstruct the 3-D ocean state in a high-resolution realistic simulation of North Atlantic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fresnay, Simon; Ponte, Aurélien

2017-04-01

The quasi-geostrophic (QG) framework has been, is and will be still for years to come a cornerstone method linking observations with estimates of the ocean circulation and state. We have used here the QG framework to reconstruct dynamical variables of the 3-D ocean in a state-of-the-art high-resolution (1/60 deg, 300 vertical levels) numerical simulation of the North Atlantic (NATL60). The work was carried out in 3 boxes of the simulation: Gulf Stream, Azores and Reykjaness Ridge. In a first part, general diagnostics describing the eddying dynamics have been performed and show that the QG scaling verifies in general, at depths distant from mixed layer and bathymetric gradients. Correlations with surface observables variables (e.g. temperature, sea level) were computed and estimates of quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) were reconstructed by the means of regression laws. It is shown that that reconstruction of QGPV exhibits valuable skill for a restricted scale range, mainly using sea level as the variable of regression. Additional discussion is given, based on the flow balanced with QGPV. This work is part of the DIMUP project, aiming to improve our ability to operationnaly estimate the ocean state.

An approximate Riemann solver for thermal and chemical nonequilibrium flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhu, Ramadas K.

1994-01-01

Among the many methods available for the determination of inviscid fluxes across a surface of discontinuity, the flux-difference-splitting technique that employs Roe-averaged variables has been used extensively by the CFD community because of its simplicity and its ability to capture shocks exactly. This method, originally developed for perfect gas flows, has since been extended to equilibrium as well as nonequilibrium flows. Determination of the Roe-averaged variables for the case of a perfect gas flow is a simple task; however, for thermal and chemical nonequilibrium flows, some of the variables are not uniquely defined. Methods available in the literature to determine these variables seem to lack sound bases. The present paper describes a simple, yet accurate, method to determine all the variables for nonequilibrium flows in the Roe-average state. The basis for this method is the requirement that the Roe-averaged variables form a consistent set of thermodynamic variables. The present method satisfies the requirement that the square of the speed of sound be positive.

Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoppe, H.-G.; Giesenhagen, H. C.; Koppe, R.; Hansen, H.-P.; Gocke, K.

2013-07-01

Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the conversion of the political system in the southern and eastern border states, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, bacteria number, bacterial biomass and bacterial production, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. Strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen, even in the surface layer, was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. The long-term seasonal patterns of all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables (as well as precipitation) and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll, which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ -60%), followed by chlorophyll (-50%) and bacterial biomass (-40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we interpret the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station as a consequence of the improved management of water resources after 1989 and - to a minor extent - the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature.

A decadal tropical Pacific condition unfavorable to central Pacific El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wenxiu; Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Cai, Wenju

2017-08-01

The frequency of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events displays strong decadal variability but the associated dynamics are unclear. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) are two dominant modes of tropical Pacific decadal variability that can interact with high-frequency activities. Using a 500 year control integration from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model, we find that the difference in mean state between the low-frequency and high-frequency CP El Niño periods is similar to the decadal background condition concurrently contributed by a negative IPO and a positive TPDV. This decadal state features strengthened trade winds west of the International Date Line and anomalous cool sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific. As such, positive zonal advection feedback is difficult to be generated over the central to western tropical Pacific during the CP El Niño developing season, resulting in the low CP El Niño frequency.

Do Contaminants Originating from State-of-the-Art Treated Wastewater Impact the Ecological Quality of Surface Waters?

PubMed Central

Stalter, Daniel; Magdeburg, Axel; Quednow, Kristin; Botzat, Alexandra; Oehlmann, Jörg

2013-01-01

Since the 1980s, advances in wastewater treatment technology have led to considerably improved surface water quality in the urban areas of many high income countries. However, trace concentrations of organic wastewater-associated contaminants may still pose a key environmental hazard impairing the ecological quality of surface waters. To identify key impact factors, we analyzed the effects of a wide range of anthropogenic and environmental variables on the aquatic macroinvertebrate community. We assessed ecological water quality at 26 sampling sites in four urban German lowland river systems with a 0–100% load of state-of-the-art biological activated sludge treated wastewater. The chemical analysis suite comprised 12 organic contaminants (five phosphor organic flame retardants, two musk fragrances, bisphenol A, nonylphenol, octylphenol, diethyltoluamide, terbutryn), 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and 12 heavy metals. Non-metric multidimensional scaling identified organic contaminants that are mainly wastewater-associated (i.e., phosphor organic flame retardants, musk fragrances, and diethyltoluamide) as a major impact variable on macroinvertebrate species composition. The structural degradation of streams was also identified as a significant factor. Multiple linear regression models revealed a significant impact of organic contaminants on invertebrate populations, in particular on Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera species. Spearman rank correlation analyses confirmed wastewater-associated organic contaminants as the most significant variable negatively impacting the biodiversity of sensitive macroinvertebrate species. In addition to increased aquatic pollution with organic contaminants, a greater wastewater fraction was accompanied by a slight decrease in oxygen concentration and an increase in salinity. This study highlights the importance of reducing the wastewater-associated impact on surface waters. For aquatic ecosystems in urban areas this would lead to: (i) improvement of the ecological integrity, (ii) reduction of biodiversity loss, and (iii) faster achievement of objectives of legislative requirements, e.g., the European Water Framework Directive. PMID:23593263

Do contaminants originating from state-of-the-art treated wastewater impact the ecological quality of surface waters?

PubMed

Stalter, Daniel; Magdeburg, Axel; Quednow, Kristin; Botzat, Alexandra; Oehlmann, Jörg

2013-01-01

Since the 1980s, advances in wastewater treatment technology have led to considerably improved surface water quality in the urban areas of many high income countries. However, trace concentrations of organic wastewater-associated contaminants may still pose a key environmental hazard impairing the ecological quality of surface waters. To identify key impact factors, we analyzed the effects of a wide range of anthropogenic and environmental variables on the aquatic macroinvertebrate community. We assessed ecological water quality at 26 sampling sites in four urban German lowland river systems with a 0-100% load of state-of-the-art biological activated sludge treated wastewater. The chemical analysis suite comprised 12 organic contaminants (five phosphor organic flame retardants, two musk fragrances, bisphenol A, nonylphenol, octylphenol, diethyltoluamide, terbutryn), 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and 12 heavy metals. Non-metric multidimensional scaling identified organic contaminants that are mainly wastewater-associated (i.e., phosphor organic flame retardants, musk fragrances, and diethyltoluamide) as a major impact variable on macroinvertebrate species composition. The structural degradation of streams was also identified as a significant factor. Multiple linear regression models revealed a significant impact of organic contaminants on invertebrate populations, in particular on Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera species. Spearman rank correlation analyses confirmed wastewater-associated organic contaminants as the most significant variable negatively impacting the biodiversity of sensitive macroinvertebrate species. In addition to increased aquatic pollution with organic contaminants, a greater wastewater fraction was accompanied by a slight decrease in oxygen concentration and an increase in salinity. This study highlights the importance of reducing the wastewater-associated impact on surface waters. For aquatic ecosystems in urban areas this would lead to: (i) improvement of the ecological integrity, (ii) reduction of biodiversity loss, and (iii) faster achievement of objectives of legislative requirements, e.g., the European Water Framework Directive.

Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

2016-04-01

Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

Zonal wind indices to reconstruct United States winter precipitation during El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnham, D. J.; Steinschneider, S.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The highly discussed 2015/16 El Niño event, which many likened to the similarly strong 1997/98 El Niño event, led to precipitation impacts over the continental United States (CONUS) inconsistent with general expectations given past events and model-based forecasts. This presents a challenge for regional water managers and others who use seasonal precipitation forecasts who previously viewed El Niño events as times of enhanced confidence in seasonal water availability and flood risk forecasts. It is therefore useful to understand the extent to which wintertime CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by seasonal sea surface temperature heating patterns and the extent to which the precipitation is a product of natural variability. In this work, we define two seasonal indices based on the zonal wind field spanning from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic over CONUS that can explain El Niño precipitation variation spatially throughout CONUS over 11 historic El Niño events from 1950 to 2016. The indices reconstruct El Niño event wintertime (Jan-Mar) gridded precipitation over CONUS through cross-validated regression much better than the traditional ENSO sea surface temperature indices or other known modes of variability. Lastly, we show strong relationships between sea surface temperature patterns and the phases of the zonal wind indices, which in turn suggests that some of the disparate CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by different heating patterns. The primary contribution of this work is the identification of intermediate variables (in the form of zonal wind indices) that can facilitate further studies into the distinct hydroclimatic response to specific El Niño events.

Interaction between aggrading geomorphic surfaces and the formation of a late pleistocene paleosol in the palouse loess of eastern Washington state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Eric V.; Busacca, Alan J.

1990-09-01

Variable rates of loess deposition contributed to dramatic regional variation in a soil-stratigraphic unit, the Washtucna Soil, in the Palouse loess deposits in the Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington state. Throughout most of the Channeled Scabland, the morphology of the Washtucna Soil is that of a single buried soil, but it bifurcates into two well-developed and pedologically distinct buried soils in areas immediately downwind of the major source of loessial sediment. Regional loess stratigraphy confirms that the two well-developed soils formed during the same interval of time during which only one soil formed in areas that are distal to loess source areas. The variable and perhaps rapid rates of soil formation suggested by the stratigraphy resulted from an interaction between variable rates of loess deposition and the formation of superimposed calcic soils. Petrocalcic horizons with weak Stage IV morphology formed as the zone of carbonate accumulation moved up into former A and cambic horizons that had been profusely burrowed by cicadas. The development of cicada burrows in one phase of soil development that were subsequently engulfed by pedogenic carbonate under a rising land surface seems to have greatly accelerated the development of the petrocalcic horizons. Accelerated rates of formation of the petrocalcic horizons occurred when extrinsic (pulses of loess deposition) and intrinsic (engulfment of burrowed horizons) thresholds were exceeded. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the soil formation that accompanied the rise in the land surface due to additional loess deposition may have occurred during the late Wisconsin glaciation when giant glacial outburst floods in the channeled Scabland triggered a new cycle of loess deposition.

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Nmore » a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.« less

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

DOE PAGES

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy; ...

2018-01-21

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Nmore » a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.« less

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy; Eastman, Ryan; Luke, Edward

2018-01-01

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (Na). These terms are then parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal time scales Na is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Na based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter Na concentrations are made using the simplified steady state model and seasonal mean observed variables. These are found to match well with the observed Na. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g., precipitation rate and free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in Na, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.

Trends and variability in the Hadley circulation over the Last Millennium from the proxy record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horlick, K. A.; Noone, D.; Hakim, G. J.; Tardif, R.; Anderson, D. M.; Perkins, W. A.; Erb, M. P.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

The Hadley circulation (HC) is the dominant atmospheric overturning circulation controlling variability in precipitation distribution in the tropics and subtropics, affecting agricultural production and water resource allocation, among other human civilizational dependencies. A lack of pre-instrumental data-model synthesis has been cited as the barrier to diagnostic analyses of the variability in width, position, and intensity of the HC and its response to anthropogenic forcing. We analyze the HC, and its rising limb associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), over the past 1000 years using the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) (Hakim et al. 2016). The LMR systematically blends the dynamical constraints of climate models with a proxy network of coral, tree ring, and ice core records. It allows for a spatiotemporal analysis with robust uncertainty measures. A three dimensional analysis of LMR wind fields shows an centennial-scale circulatory trend over the last 200 years resembling that which might be expected from an ENSO and PDO-like structure. An observed aridification of both the central equatorial Pacific and the southwest United States, a strengthening of the east-west sea surface temperature and sea level pressure gradient in the equatorial Pacific, and a strengthening of the Walker overturning circulation suggest a more "La Niña-like" mean state. This is compared to our statistical description of the centennial-scale mean circulation and variability of the previous millennia. Similarly, precipitation and relative humidity trends suggest expansion and asymmetric meridional movement of the Hadley circulation as a result of asymmetric shifts in mean ITCZ position and intensity. These observations are then compared to free running model simulations, other instrumental reanalysis products, and late-Holocene aerosol, solar, and greenhouse forcings. This LMR reconstruction improves upon previous work by enabling a proxy-consistent, quantitative analysis of Hadley circulation intensity, structure, and variability rather than relying on simpler empirical reconstructions of variables like surface temperature alone.

Cloudy Windows: What GCM Ensembles, Reanalyses and Observations Tell Us About Uncertainty in Greenland's Future Climate and Surface Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusch, D. B.

2016-12-01

Any analysis that wants to use a GCM-based scenario of future climate benefits from knowing how much uncertainty the GCM's inherent variability adds to the development of climate change predictions. This is extra relevant in the polar regions due to the potential of global impacts (e.g., sea level rise) from local (ice sheet) climate changes such as more frequent/intense surface melting. High-resolution, regional-scale models using GCMs for boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios inherit a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We investigate these uncertainties for the Greenland ice sheet using the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Recent simulations are skill-tested against the ERA-Interim reanalysis and AWS observations with results informing future scenarios. We focus on key variables influencing surface melting through decadal climatologies, nonlinear analysis of variability with self-organizing maps (SOMs), regional-scale modeling (Polar WRF), and simple melt models. Relative to the ensemble average, spatially averaged climatological July temperature anomalies over a Greenland ice-sheet/ocean domain are mostly between +/- 0.2 °C. The spatial average hides larger local anomalies of up to +/- 2 °C. The ensemble average itself is 2 °C cooler than ERA-Interim. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. For CESMLE, the SOM patterns summarize the variability of multiple realizations of climate. Changes in pattern frequency by ensemble member show the influence of initial conditions. For example, basic statistical analysis of pattern frequency yields interquartile ranges of 2-4% for individual patterns across the ensemble. In climate terms, this tells us about climate state variability through the range of the ensemble, a potentially significant source of melt-prediction uncertainty. SOMs can also capture the different trajectories of climate due to intramodel variability over time. Polar WRF provides higher resolution regional modeling with improved, polar-centric model physics. Simple melt models allow us to characterize impacts of the upstream uncertainties on estimates of surface melting.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, J.; Moon, T.J.; Howell, J.R.

This paper presents an analysis of the heat transfer occurring during an in-situ curing process for which infrared energy is provided on the surface of polymer composite during winding. The material system is Hercules prepreg AS4/3501-6. Thermoset composites have an exothermic chemical reaction during the curing process. An Eulerian thermochemical model is developed for the heat transfer analysis of helical winding. The model incorporates heat generation due to the chemical reaction. Several assumptions are made leading to a two-dimensional, thermochemical model. For simplicity, 360{degree} heating around the mandrel is considered. In order to generate the appropriate process windows, the developedmore » heat transfer model is combined with a simple winding time model. The process windows allow for a proper selection of process variables such as infrared energy input and winding velocity to give a desired end-product state. Steady-state temperatures are found for each combination of the process variables. A regression analysis is carried out to relate the process variables to the resulting steady-state temperatures. Using regression equations, process windows for a wide range of cylinder diameters are found. A general procedure to find process windows for Hercules AS4/3501-6 prepreg tape is coded in a FORTRAN program.« less

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Empirical retrieval of sea spray aerosol production using satellite microwave radiometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savelyev, I. B.; Yelland, M. J.; Norris, S. J.; Salisbury, D.; Pascal, R. W.; Bettenhausen, M. H.; Prytherch, J.; Anguelova, M. D.; Brooks, I. M.

2017-12-01

This study presents a novel approach to obtaining global sea spray aerosol (SSA) production source term by relying on direct satellite observations of the ocean surface, instead of more traditional approaches driven by surface meteorology. The primary challenge in developing this empirical algorithm is to compile a calibrated, consistent dataset of SSA surface flux collected offshore over a variety of conditions (i.e., regions and seasons), thus representative of the global SSA production variability. Such dataset includes observations from SEASAW, HiWASE, and WAGES field campaigns, during which the SSA flux was measured from the bow of a research vessel using consistent and state-of-the-art eddy covariance methodology. These in situ data are matched to observations of the state of the ocean surface from Windsat polarimetric microwave satellite radiometer. Previous studies demonstrated the ability of WindSat to detect variations in surface waves slopes, roughness and foam, which led to the development of retrieval algorithms for surface wind vector and more recently whitecap fraction. Similarly, in this study, microwave emissions from the ocean surface are matched to and calibrated against in situ observations of the SSA production flux. The resulting calibrated empirical algorithm is applicable for retrieval of SSA source term throughout the duration of Windsat mission, from 2003 to present.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

PubMed

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-07-12

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth's global surface temperature.

Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B.; England, Matthew H.; Collins, Mat

2018-06-01

Pacific trade winds have displayed unprecedented strengthening in recent decades1. This strengthening has been associated with east Pacific sea surface cooling2 and the early twenty-first-century slowdown in global surface warming2,3, amongst a host of other substantial impacts4-9. Although some climate models produce the timing of these recently observed trends10, they all fail to produce the trend magnitude2,11,12. This may in part be related to the apparent model underrepresentation of low-frequency Pacific Ocean variability and decadal wind trends2,11-13 or be due to a misrepresentation of a forced response1,14-16 or a combination of both. An increasingly prominent connection between the Pacific and Atlantic basins has been identified as a key driver of this strengthening of the Pacific trade winds12,17-20. Here we use targeted climate model experiments to show that combining the recent Atlantic warming trend with the typical climate model bias leads to a substantially underestimated response for the Pacific Ocean wind and surface temperature. The underestimation largely stems from a reduction and eastward shift of the atmospheric heating response to the tropical Atlantic warming trend. This result suggests that the recent Pacific trends and model decadal variability may be better captured by models with improved mean-state climatologies.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

PubMed Central

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth’s global surface temperature. PMID:27404090

Comparison and assessment of semi-automatic image segmentation in computed tomography scans for image-guided kidney surgery.

PubMed

Glisson, Courtenay L; Altamar, Hernan O; Herrell, S Duke; Clark, Peter; Galloway, Robert L

2011-11-01

Image segmentation is integral to implementing intraoperative guidance for kidney tumor resection. Results seen in computed tomography (CT) data are affected by target organ physiology as well as by the segmentation algorithm used. This work studies variables involved in using level set methods found in the Insight Toolkit to segment kidneys from CT scans and applies the results to an image guidance setting. A composite algorithm drawing on the strengths of multiple level set approaches was built using the Insight Toolkit. This algorithm requires image contrast state and seed points to be identified as input, and functions independently thereafter, selecting and altering method and variable choice as needed. Semi-automatic results were compared to expert hand segmentation results directly and by the use of the resultant surfaces for registration of intraoperative data. Direct comparison using the Dice metric showed average agreement of 0.93 between semi-automatic and hand segmentation results. Use of the segmented surfaces in closest point registration of intraoperative laser range scan data yielded average closest point distances of approximately 1 mm. Application of both inverse registration transforms from the previous step to all hand segmented image space points revealed that the distance variability introduced by registering to the semi-automatically segmented surface versus the hand segmented surface was typically less than 3 mm both near the tumor target and at distal points, including subsurface points. Use of the algorithm shortened user interaction time and provided results which were comparable to the gold standard of hand segmentation. Further, the use of the algorithm's resultant surfaces in image registration provided comparable transformations to surfaces produced by hand segmentation. These data support the applicability and utility of such an algorithm as part of an image guidance workflow.

The impact of reforestation in the northeast United States on precipitation and surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Allyson

Since the 1920s, forest coverage in the northeastern United States has recovered from disease, clearing for agricultural and urban development, and the demands of the timber industry. Such a dramatic change in ground cover can influence heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere, as measured in altered landscapes in Australia, Israel, and the Amazon. In this study, the impacts of recent reforestation in the northeastern United States on summertime precipitation and surface temperature were quantified by comparing average modern values to 1950s values. Weak positive (negative) relationships between reforestation and average monthly precipitation and daily minimum temperatures (average daily maximum surface temperature) were found. There was no relationship between reforestation and average surface temperature. Results of the observational analysis were compared with results obtained from reforestation scenarios simulated with the BUGS5 global climate model. The single difference between the model runs was the amount of forest coverage in the northeast United States; three levels of forest were defined - a grassland state, with 0% forest coverage, a completely forested state, with approximately 100% forest coverage, and a control state, with forest coverage closely resembling modern forest coverage. The three simulations were compared, and had larger magnitude average changes in precipitation and in all temperature variables. The difference in magnitudes between the model simulations observations was much larger than the difference in the amount of reforestation in each case. Additionally, unlike in observations, a negative relationship was found between average daily minimum temperature and amount of forest coverage, implying that additional factors influence temperature and precipitation in the real world that are not accounted for in the model.

Contrail Coverage Over the USA Derived from NOAA and EOS Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palikonda, Rabindra; Minnis, Patrick; Duda, David P.

2004-01-01

Contrails, like natural cirrus clouds, can cause a warming of the Earth-atmospheric system by absorbing longwave radiation from the surface and lower troposphere and radiating additional radiation back to the surface. They can also produce some cooling of the surface during the daytime by reflecting some sunlight back to space. Recently, Minnis et al. (2004) determined from surface observations of cirrus cloud cover that the overall impact appears to be a warming that is consistent with theoretical calculations, at least over the United States of America (USA) and surrounding areas. This finding highlights the need to better understand the formation and persistence of contrails and their radiative properties. To better assess the climatic impact of contrails, it is essential to determine the variability of the contrail microphysical properties, their impact on the atmospheric radiation budget, and their relationship to the atmospheric state. To that end, this paper continues the analyses of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data from the NOAA-15 (N15), NOAA-16 (N16), and NOAA-17 (N17) satellites, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from the Terra and Aqua satellites. The combination of these satellites provides a relatively comprehensive coverage of the daily cycle of air traffic. Thus, it should be possible to use these data to help understand the impact of air traffic on the upper tropospheric humidity during the day as well as determine the local-time variability of contrail coverage. The results will be valuable for developing models of contrail effects and methods for mitigating the impact of aviation on climate.

Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun

2018-01-01

Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

A toy model linking atmospheric thermal radiation and sea ice growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thorndike, A. S.

1992-01-01

A simplified analytical model of sea ice growth is presented where the atmosphere is in thermal radiative equilibrium with the ice. This makes the downwelling longwave radiation reaching the ice surface an internal variable rather than a specified forcing. Analytical results demonstrate how the ice state depends on properties of the ice and on the externally specified climate.

Investigating the impact of diurnal cycle of SST on the intraseasonal and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, W. L.; Hsu, H. H.; Chang, C. W. J.; Keenlyside, N. S.; Lan, Y. Y.; Tsuang, B. J.; Tu, C. Y.

2016-12-01

The diurnal cycle is a prominent feature of our climate system and the most familiar example of externally forced variability. Despite this it remains poorly simulated in state-of-the-art climate models. A particular problem is the diurnal cycle in sea surface temperature (SST), which is a key variable in air-sea heat flux exchange. In most models the diurnal cycle in SST is not well resolved, due to insufficient vertical resolution in the upper ocean mixed-layer and insufficiently frequent ocean-atmosphere coupling. Here, we coupled a 1-dimensional ocean model (SIT) to two atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5 and CAM5). In particular, we focus on improving the representations of the diurnal cycle in SST in a climate model, and investigate the role of the diurnal cycle in climate and intraseasonal variability.

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Comparing maps of mean monthly surface temperature and precipitation for Alaska and adjacent areas of Canada produced by two different methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, James J.; Hufford, Gary L.; Daly, Christopher; Berg, Jared S.; Fleming, Michael D.

2005-01-01

Maps of mean monthly surface temperature and precipitation for Alaska and adjacent areas of Canada, produced by Oregon State University's Spatial Climate Analysis Service (SCAS) and the Alaska Geospatial Data Clearinghouse (AGDC), were analyzed. Because both sets of maps are generally available and in use by the community, there is a need to document differences between the processes and input data sets used by the two groups to produce their respective set of maps and to identify similarities and differences between the two sets of maps and possible reasons for the differences. These differences do not affect the observed large-scale patterns of seasonal and annual variability. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones, with consistent but different variability, separated by a transition region. The transition region has high interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Both data sets support the four major ecosystems and ecosystem transition zone identified in our earlier work. Differences between the two sets of maps do occur, however, on the regional scale; they reflect differences in physiographic domains and in the treatment of these domains by the two groups (AGDC, SCAS). These differences also provide guidance for an improved observational network for Alaska. On the basis of validation with independent in situ data, we conclude that the data set produced by SCAS provides the best spatial coverage of Alaskan long-term mean monthly surface temperature and precipitation currently available. ?? The Arctic Institute of North America.

Meteorological Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) Instrument Handbook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holdridge, Donna J; Kyrouac, Jenni A

The Meteorological Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) is a surface meteorological station, manufactured by Vaisala, Inc., dedicated to the balloon-borne sounding system (BBSS), providing surface measurements of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the wind speed and direction for each radiosonde profile. These data are automatically provided to the BBSS during the launch procedure and included in the radiosonde profile as the surface measurements of record for the sounding. The MAWS core set of measurements is: Barometric Pressure (hPa), Temperature (°C), Relative Humidity (%), Arithmetic-Averaged Wind Speed (m/s), and Vector-Averaged Wind Direction (deg). The sensors that collect the core variablesmore » are mounted at the standard heights defined for each variable.« less

Overview of the LADEE Ultraviolet-visible Spectrometer: Design, Performance and Planned Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colaprete, A.; Elphic, R. C.; Landis, D.; Karcz, J.; Osetinsky, L.; Shirley, M.; Vargo, K.; Wooden, D.

2013-01-01

The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) is an orbital lunar science mission currently under development to address the goals of the 2003 National Research Council decadal survey, the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group Roadmap, and the "Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon" (SCEM) report, and has been recommended for execution by the 2011 Planetary Missions Decadal Survey. The mission s focus is to study the pristine state of the lunar atmosphere and dust environment prior to possible lunar exploration activities by countries, including the United States, China, India, and Japan, among others. Activity on the lunar surface has the potential of altering the tenuous lunar atmosphere, but changing the type and concentration of gases in the atmosphere. Before these activities occur it is important to make measurements of the current lunar atmosphere in its unmodified state. LADEE will determine the composition of the lunar atmosphere and investigate the processes that control its distribution and variability, including sources, sinks, and surface interactions. It will monitor variations in known gases, such as sodium, potassium, argon and helium, and will search for other, as-yet-undetected gases of both lunar and extra-lunar origin. LADEE will also determine whether dust is present in the lunar exosphere, and reveal the processes that contribute to its sources and variability. Launch is planned for August, 2013.

Investigation of Spray Cooling Schemes for Dynamic Thermal Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yata, Vishnu Vardhan Reddy

This study aims to investigate variable flow and intermittent flow spray cooling characteristics for efficiency improvement in active two-phase thermal management systems. Variable flow spray cooling scheme requires control of pump input voltage (or speed), while intermittent flow spray cooling scheme requires control of solenoid valve duty cycle and frequency. Several testing scenarios representing dynamic heat load conditions are implemented to characterize the overall performance of variable flow and intermittent flow spray cooling cases in comparison with the reference, steady flow spray cooling case with constant flowrate, continuous spray cooling. Tests are conducted on a small-scale, closed loop spray cooling system featuring a pressure atomized spray nozzle. HFE-7100 dielectric liquid is selected as the working fluid. Two types of test samples are prepared on 10 mm x 10 mm x 2 mm copper substrates with matching size thick film resistors attached onto the opposite side, to generate heat and simulate high heat flux electronic devices. The test samples include: (i) plain, smooth surface, and (ii) microporous surface featuring 100 ?m thick copper-based coating prepared by dual stage electroplating technique. Experimental conditions involve HFE-7100 at atmospheric pressure and 30°C and 10°C subcooling. Steady flow spray cooling tests are conducted at flow rates of 2-5 ml/cm2.s, by controlling the heat flux in increasing steps, and recording the corresponding steady-state temperatures to obtain cooling curves in the form of surface superheat vs. heat flux. Variable flow and intermittent flow spray cooling tests are done at selected flowrate and subcooling conditions to investigate the effects of dynamic flow conditions on maintaining the target surface temperatures defined based on reference steady flow spray cooling performance.

Determining Surface Roughness in Urban Areas Using Lidar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Donald

2009-01-01

An automated procedure has been developed to derive relevant factors, which can increase the ability to produce objective, repeatable methods for determining aerodynamic surface roughness. Aerodynamic surface roughness is used for many applications, like atmospheric dispersive models and wind-damage models. For this technique, existing lidar data was used that was originally collected for terrain analysis, and demonstrated that surface roughness values can be automatically derived, and then subsequently utilized in disaster-management and homeland security models. The developed lidar-processing algorithm effectively distinguishes buildings from trees and characterizes their size, density, orientation, and spacing (see figure); all of these variables are parameters that are required to calculate the estimated surface roughness for a specified area. By using this algorithm, aerodynamic surface roughness values in urban areas can then be extracted automatically. The user can also adjust the algorithm for local conditions and lidar characteristics, like summer/winter vegetation and dense/sparse lidar point spacing. Additionally, the user can also survey variations in surface roughness that occurs due to wind direction; for example, during a hurricane, when wind direction can change dramatically, this variable can be extremely significant. In its current state, the algorithm calculates an estimated surface roughness for a square kilometer area; techniques using the lidar data to calculate the surface roughness for a point, whereby only roughness elements that are upstream from the point of interest are used and the wind direction is a vital concern, are being investigated. This technological advancement will improve the reliability and accuracy of models that use and incorporate surface roughness.

Fabric and connectivity as field descriptors for deformations in granular media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Richard; Pouragha, Mehdi

2015-01-01

Granular materials involve microphysics across the various scales giving rise to distinct behaviours of geomaterials, such as steady states, plastic limit states, non-associativity of plastic and yield flow, as well as instability of homogeneous deformations through strain localization. Incorporating such micro-scale characteristics is one of the biggest challenges in the constitutive modelling of granular materials, especially when micro-variables may be interdependent. With this motivation, we use two micro-variables such as coordination number and fabric anisotropy computed from tessellation of the granular material to describe its state at the macroscopic level. In order to capture functional dependencies between micro-variables, the correlation between coordination number and fabric anisotropy limits is herein formulated at the particle level rather than on an average sense. This is the essence of the proposed work which investigates the evolutions of coordination number distribution (connectivity) and anisotropy (contact normal) distribution curves with deformation history and their inter-dependencies through discrete element modelling in two dimensions. These results enter as probability distribution functions into homogenization expressions during upscaling to a continuum constitutive model using tessellation as an abstract representation of the granular system. The end product is a micro-mechanically inspired continuum model with both coordination number and fabric anisotropy as underlying micro-variables incorporated into a plasticity flow rule. The derived plastic potential bears striking resemblance to cam-clay or stress-dilatancy-type yield surfaces used in soil mechanics.

Reduction and shaping of graphene-oxide by laser-printing for controlled bone tissue regeneration and bacterial killing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmieri, Valentina; Barba, Marta; Di Pietro, Lorena; Gentilini, Silvia; Chiara Braidotti, Maria; Ciancico, Carlotta; Bugli, Francesca; Ciasca, Gabriele; Larciprete, Rosanna; Lattanzi, Wanda; Sanguinetti, Maurizio; De Spirito, Marco; Conti, Claudio; Papi, Massimiliano

2018-01-01

Graphene and graphene oxide (GO) are capable of inducing stem cells differentiation into bone tissue with variable efficacy depending on reductive state of the material. Thus, modulation of osteogenic process and of bone mineral density distribution is theoretically possible by controlling the GO oxidative state. In this study, we laser-printed GO surfaces in order to obtain both a local photo-thermal GO reduction and the formation of nano-wrinkles along precise geometric pattern. Initially, after cells adhered on the surface, stem cells migrated and accumulated on the reduced and wrinkled surface. When the local density of the stem cells on the reduced stripes was high, cells started to proliferate and occupy the oxidized/flat area. The designed surfaces morphology guided stem cell orientation and the reduction accelerated differentiation. Furthermore the reduced sharp nano-wrinkles were able to enhance the GO antibacterial activity against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), a common cause of prosthetic joints infections. This strategy can offer a revolution in present and future trends of scaffolds design for regenerative medicine.

Dynamic Programming for Structured Continuous Markov Decision Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dearden, Richard; Meuleau, Nicholas; Washington, Richard; Feng, Zhengzhu

2004-01-01

We describe an approach for exploiting structure in Markov Decision Processes with continuous state variables. At each step of the dynamic programming, the state space is dynamically partitioned into regions where the value function is the same throughout the region. We first describe the algorithm for piecewise constant representations. We then extend it to piecewise linear representations, using techniques from POMDPs to represent and reason about linear surfaces efficiently. We show that for complex, structured problems, our approach exploits the natural structure so that optimal solutions can be computed efficiently.

Floodplain complexity and surface metrics: influences of scale and geomorphology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scown, Murray W.; Thoms, Martin C.; DeJager, Nathan R.

2015-01-01

Many studies of fluvial geomorphology and landscape ecology examine a single river or landscape, thus lack generality, making it difficult to develop a general understanding of the linkages between landscape patterns and larger-scale driving variables. We examined the spatial complexity of eight floodplain surfaces in widely different geographic settings and determined how patterns measured at different scales relate to different environmental drivers. Floodplain surface complexity is defined as having highly variable surface conditions that are also highly organised in space. These two components of floodplain surface complexity were measured across multiple sampling scales from LiDAR-derived DEMs. The surface character and variability of each floodplain were measured using four surface metrics; namely, standard deviation, skewness, coefficient of variation, and standard deviation of curvature from a series of moving window analyses ranging from 50 to 1000 m in radius. The spatial organisation of each floodplain surface was measured using spatial correlograms of the four surface metrics. Surface character, variability, and spatial organisation differed among the eight floodplains; and random, fragmented, highly patchy, and simple gradient spatial patterns were exhibited, depending upon the metric and window size. Differences in surface character and variability among the floodplains became statistically stronger with increasing sampling scale (window size), as did their associations with environmental variables. Sediment yield was consistently associated with differences in surface character and variability, as were flow discharge and variability at smaller sampling scales. Floodplain width was associated with differences in the spatial organization of surface conditions at smaller sampling scales, while valley slope was weakly associated with differences in spatial organisation at larger scales. A comparison of floodplain landscape patterns measured at different scales would improve our understanding of the role that different environmental variables play at different scales and in different geomorphic settings.

Computational Study of Axisymmetric Off-Design Nozzle Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DalBello, Teryn; Georgiadis, Nicholas; Yoder, Dennis; Keith, Theo

2003-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses of axisymmetric circular-arc boattail nozzles operating off-design at transonic Mach numbers have been completed. These computations span the very difficult transonic flight regime with shock-induced separations and strong adverse pressure gradients. External afterbody and internal nozzle pressure distributions computed with the Wind code are compared with experimental data. A range of turbulence models were examined, including the Explicit Algebraic Stress model. Computations have been completed at freestream Mach numbers of 0.9 and 1.2, and nozzle pressure ratios (NPR) of 4 and 6. Calculations completed with variable time-stepping (steady-state) did not converge to a true steady-state solution. Calculations obtained using constant timestepping (timeaccurate) indicate less variations in flow properties compared with steady-state solutions. This failure to converge to a steady-state solution was the result of using variable time-stepping with large-scale separations present in the flow. Nevertheless, time-averaged boattail surface pressure coefficient and internal nozzle pressures show reasonable agreement with experimental data. The SST turbulence model demonstrates the best overall agreement with experimental data.

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Hameed, Sultan

2015-01-01

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and the intensity and location of the Azores High (AH), and the NAO and East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that variations of the AH are found to explain the heat flux changes more successfully than the NAO and the EAWR. Trends in sea level pressure and longitude of the Azores High during DJF show a strengthening, and an eastward shift. DJF Azores High pressure and longitude are shown to co-vary such that variability of the Azores High occurs along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme, and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the Azores High from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime Mediterranean Sea sensible and latent heat fluxes.

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Hameed, Sultan

2015-01-01

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Dynamic Electron Correlation Effects on the Ground State Potential Energy Surface of a Retinal Chromophore Model.

PubMed

Gozem, Samer; Huntress, Mark; Schapiro, Igor; Lindh, Roland; Granovsky, Alexander A; Angeli, Celestino; Olivucci, Massimo

2012-11-13

The ground state potential energy surface of the retinal chromophore of visual pigments (e.g., bovine rhodopsin) features a low-lying conical intersection surrounded by regions with variable charge-transfer and diradical electronic structures. This implies that dynamic electron correlation may have a large effect on the shape of the force fields driving its reactivity. To investigate this effect, we focus on mapping the potential energy for three paths located along the ground state CASSCF potential energy surface of the penta-2,4-dieniminium cation taken as a minimal model of the retinal chromophore. The first path spans the bond length alternation coordinate and intercepts a conical intersection point. The other two are minimum energy paths along two distinct but kinetically competitive thermal isomerization coordinates. We show that the effect of introducing the missing dynamic electron correlation variationally (with MRCISD) and perturbatively (with the CASPT2, NEVPT2, and XMCQDPT2 methods) leads, invariably, to a stabilization of the regions with charge transfer character and to a significant reshaping of the reference CASSCF potential energy surface and suggesting a change in the dominating isomerization mechanism. The possible impact of such a correction on the photoisomerization of the retinal chromophore is discussed.

Apparent Resistivity and Estimated Interaction Potential of Surface Water and Groundwater along Selected Canals and Streams in the Elkhorn-Loup Model Study Area, North-Central Nebraska, 2006-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teeple, Andrew; Vrabel, Joseph; Kress, Wade H.; Cannia, James C.

2009-01-01

In 2005, the State of Nebraska adopted new legislation that in part requires local Natural Resources Districts to include the effect of groundwater use on surface-water systems in their groundwater management plan. In response the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, did a study during 2006-07 to investigate the surface-water and groundwater interaction within a 79,800-square-kilometer area in north-central Nebraska. To determine how streambed materials affect surface-water and groundwater interaction, surface geophysical and lithologic data were integrated at four sites to characterize the hydrogeologic conditions within the study area. Frequency-domain electromagnetic and waterborne direct- current resistivity profiles were collected to map the near-surface hydrogeologic conditions along sections of Ainsworth Canal near Ainsworth, Nebraska; Mirdan and Geranium Canals near Ord, Nebraska; North Loup River near Ord, Nebraska; and Middle Loup River near Thedford, Nebraska. Lithologic data were collected from test holes at each site to aid interpretation of the geophysical data. Geostatistical analysis incorporating the spatial variability of resistivity was used to account for the effect of lithologic heterogeneity on effective hydraulic permeability. The geostatistical analysis and lithologic data descriptions were used to make an interpretation of the hydrogeologic system and derive estimates of surface-water/groundwater interaction potential within the canals and streambeds. The estimated interaction potential at the Ainsworth Canal site and the Mirdan and Geranium Canal site is generally low to moderately low. The sediment textures at nearby test holes typically were silt and clay and fine-to-medium sand. The apparent resistivity values for these sites ranged from 2 to 120 ohm-meters. The vertical and horizontal variability of the apparent resistivity data were consistently low. Low resistive variability indicates little lithologic heterogeneity for either canal site. The surface-water/groundwater interaction-potential estimates are in agreement with the narrow frequency distribution of resistivity, low apparent resistivities, low spatial heterogeneity, and test-hole grain-size ranges. The estimated surface-water/groundwater interaction potential at the North Loup and Middle Loup River sites is moderate to moderately high. The sediment textures at nearby test holes were predominantly fine, medium, and coarse sand with some silt and silty to sandy clay. The apparent resistivity values for these sites ranged from 34 to 1,338 ohm-meters. The vertical variability of the resistivity data was moderately high. The horizontal variability at these sites is low to moderately low. The higher resistive variability at these sites indicates generally greater lithologic heterogeneity than at either the Ainsworth Canal site or the Mirdan and Geranium Canal site. The surface-water/groundwater interaction-potential estimates are in agreement with the generally moderate to high apparent resistivity, the greater spatial heterogeneity, and the variable lithologic texture. A higher interaction potential as compared to the canal sites is expected because of the higher subsurface resistivity and greater lithologic heterogeneity.

Water-resources optimization model for Santa Barbara, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

1998-01-01

A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought. The model, which links groundwater simulation with linear programming, has a planning horizon of 5 years. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply subject to: water demand constraints, hydraulic head constraints to control seawater intrusion, and water capacity constraints. The decision variables are montly water deliveries from surface water and groundwater. The state variables are hydraulic heads. The drought of 1947-51 is the city's worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. The simulation-optimization model was applied using three reservoir operation rules. In addition, the model's sensitivity to demand, carry over [the storage of water in one year for use in the later year(s)], head constraints, and capacity constraints was tested.

Assimilating soil moisture into an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-04-01

Several modelling studies reported potential impacts of soil moisture anomalies on regional climate. In particular for short prediction periods, perturbations of the soil moisture state may result in significant alteration of surface temperature in the following season. However, it is not clear yet whether or not soil moisture anomalies affect climate also on larger temporal and spatial scales. In an earlier study, we showed that soil moisture anomalies can persist for several seasons in the deeper soil layers of a land surface model. Additionally, those anomalies can influence root zone moisture, in particular during explicitly dry or wet periods. Thus, one prerequisite for predictability, namely the existence of long term memory, is evident for simulated soil moisture and might be exploited to improve climate predictions. The second prerequisite is the sensitivity of the climate system to soil moisture. In order to investigate this sensitivity for decadal simulations, we implemented a soil moisture assimilation scheme into the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The assimilation scheme is based on a simple nudging algorithm and updates the surface soil moisture state once per day. In our experiments, the MPI-ESM is used which includes model components for the interactive simulation of atmosphere, land and ocean. Artificial assimilation data is created from a control simulation to nudge the MPI-ESM towards predominantly dry and wet states. First analyses are focused on the impact of the assimilation on land surface variables and reveal distinct differences in the long-term mean values between wet and dry state simulations. Precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are larger in the wet state compared to the dry state, resulting in an increased moisture transport from the land to atmosphere and ocean. Consequently, surface temperatures are lower in the wet state simulations by more than one Kelvin. In terms of spatial pattern, the largest differences between both simulations are seen for continental areas, while regions with a maritime climate are least sensitive to soil moisture assimilation.

Are atmospheric surface layer flows ergodic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, Chad W.; Katul, Gabriel G.; Froidevaux, Martin; Simeonov, Valentin; Parlange, Marc B.

2013-06-01

The transposition of atmospheric turbulence statistics from the time domain, as conventionally sampled in field experiments, is explained by the so-called ergodic hypothesis. In micrometeorology, this hypothesis assumes that the time average of a measured flow variable represents an ensemble of independent realizations from similar meteorological states and boundary conditions. That is, the averaging duration must be sufficiently long to include a large number of independent realizations of the sampled flow variable so as to represent the ensemble. While the validity of the ergodic hypothesis for turbulence has been confirmed in laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations for idealized conditions, evidence for its validity in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), especially for nonideal conditions, continues to defy experimental efforts. There is some urgency to make progress on this problem given the proliferation of tall tower scalar concentration networks aimed at constraining climate models yet are impacted by nonideal conditions at the land surface. Recent advancements in water vapor concentration lidar measurements that simultaneously sample spatial and temporal series in the ASL are used to investigate the validity of the ergodic hypothesis for the first time. It is shown that ergodicity is valid in a strict sense above uniform surfaces away from abrupt surface transitions. Surprisingly, ergodicity may be used to infer the ensemble concentration statistics of a composite grass-lake system using only water vapor concentration measurements collected above the sharp transition delineating the lake from the grass surface.

Modelling hard and soft states of Cygnus X-1 with propagating mass accretion rate fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapisarda, S.; Ingram, A.; van der Klis, M.

2017-12-01

We present a timing analysis of three Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary Cygnus X-1 with the propagating mass accretion rate fluctuations model PROPFLUC. The model simultaneously predicts power spectra, time lags and coherence of the variability as a function of energy. The observations cover the soft and hard states of the source, and the transition between the two. We find good agreement between model predictions and data in the hard and soft states. Our analysis suggests that in the soft state the fluctuations propagate in an optically thin hot flow extending up to large radii above and below a stable optically thick disc. In the hard state, our results are consistent with a truncated disc geometry, where the hot flow extends radially inside the inner radius of the disc. In the transition from soft to hard state, the characteristics of the rapid variability are too complex to be successfully described with PROPFLUC. The surface density profile of the hot flow predicted by our model and the lack of quasi-periodic oscillations in the soft and hard states suggest that the spin of the black hole is aligned with the inner accretion disc and therefore probably with the rotational axis of the binary system.

Groundwater recharge to the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Montgomery and Adjacent Counties, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oden, Timothy D.; Delin, Geoffrey N.

2013-01-01

Simply stated, groundwater recharge is the addition of water to the groundwater system. Most of the water that is potentially available for recharging the groundwater system in Montgomery and adjacent counties in southeast Texas moves relatively rapidly from land surface to surface-water bodies and sustains streamflow, lake levels, and wetlands. Recharge in southeast Texas is generally balanced by evapotranspiration, discharge to surface waters, and the downward movement of water into deeper parts of the groundwater system; however, this balance can be altered locally by groundwater withdrawals, impervious surfaces, land use, precipitation variability, or climate, resulting in increased or decreased rates of recharge. Recharge rates were compared to the 1971–2000 normal annual precipitation measured Cooperative Weather Station 411956, Conroe, Tex.

Assimilation of Freeze - Thaw Observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farhadi, Leila; Reichle, Rolf H.; DeLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Kimball, John S.

2014-01-01

The land surface freeze-thaw (F-T) state plays a key role in the hydrological and carbon cycles and thus affects water and energy exchanges and vegetation productivity at the land surface. In this study, we developed an F-T assimilation algorithm for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling and assimilation framework. The algorithm includes a newly developed observation operator that diagnoses the landscape F-T state in the GEOS-5 Catchment land surface model. The F-T analysis is a rule-based approach that adjusts Catchment model state variables in response to binary F-T observations, while also considering forecast and observation errors. A regional observing system simulation experiment was conducted using synthetically generated F-T observations. The assimilation of perfect (error-free) F-T observations reduced the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.206 C and 0.061 C, respectively, when compared to model estimates (equivalent to a relative RMSE reduction of 6.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively). For a maximum classification error (CEmax) of 10 percent in the synthetic F-T observations, the F-T assimilation reduced the RMSE of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.178 C and 0.036 C, respectively. For CEmax=20 percent, the F-T assimilation still reduces the RMSE of model surface temperature estimates by 0.149 C but yields no improvement over the model soil temperature estimates. The F-T assimilation scheme is being developed to exploit planned operational F-T products from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.

Elephant overflows: Multi-annual variability in Weddell Sea Deep Water driven by surface forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijers, Andrew; Meredith, Michael; Abrahamsen, Povl; Naviera-Garabato, Alberto; Ángel Morales Maqueda, Miguel; Polzin, Kurt

2015-04-01

The volume of the deepest and densest water mass in Drake Passage, Lower Weddell Sea Deep Water (LWSDW), is shown to have been decreasing over the last 20 years of observations, with an associated reduction in density driven by freshening. Superimposed on this long term trend is a multi-annual oscillation with a period of 3-5 years. This variability only appears in Drake Passage; observations in the east of the Scotia Sea show a similar long term trend, but with no apparent multi-annual variability. Clues as to the source of this variability may be found on the continental slope at approximately 1000 m immediately north of Elephant Island on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here there is an intermittent westward flowing cold/fresh slope current whose volume and properties are strongly correlated with the LWSDW multi-annual variability, although leading the LWSDW by around one year. As the slope current and LWSDW are separated from each other both geographically and in water mass characteristics, their co-variability implies that they are responding to a common forcing, while the lag between deep LWSDW and shallow slope current provides information on the timescale of this response. A newly available high resolution temperature and salinity multi-year time series from the Elephant Island slope at 1000 m is compared with reanalysis and model derived surface fluxes, sea ice extent and wind stress. We find that there are strong positive relationships between the surface wind stress and heat flux over the shelf at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and the properties of the slope current at 1000 m on seasonal to annual timescales. We use tracer release experiments in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) model to investigate the lag between the slope current and LWSDW timeseries and hypothesise that the observed multi-annual variability in both water masses is driven by surface forcing over the shelf and the overflow of modified water from the slope in the north-west Weddell Sea. The lag observed between the two time series is due to the difference in water mass paths to the observation points in Drake Passage. We discuss the role of atmospheric modes of variability such as ENSO and SAM, as well as climate trends, on this relationship and their potential impact on future LWSDW export.

An exploratory data analysis of electroencephalograms using the functional boxplots approach

PubMed Central

Ngo, Duy; Sun, Ying; Genton, Marc G.; Wu, Jennifer; Srinivasan, Ramesh; Cramer, Steven C.; Ombao, Hernando

2015-01-01

Many model-based methods have been developed over the last several decades for analysis of electroencephalograms (EEGs) in order to understand electrical neural data. In this work, we propose to use the functional boxplot (FBP) to analyze log periodograms of EEG time series data in the spectral domain. The functional bloxplot approach produces a median curve—which is not equivalent to connecting medians obtained from frequency-specific boxplots. In addition, this approach identifies a functional median, summarizes variability, and detects potential outliers. By extending FBPs analysis from one-dimensional curves to surfaces, surface boxplots are also used to explore the variation of the spectral power for the alpha (8–12 Hz) and beta (16–32 Hz) frequency bands across the brain cortical surface. By using rank-based nonparametric tests, we also investigate the stationarity of EEG traces across an exam acquired during resting-state by comparing the spectrum during the early vs. late phases of a single resting-state EEG exam. PMID:26347598

Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: the roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alfaro, Eric J.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2006-01-01

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

Improved Uncertainty Quantification in Groundwater Flux Estimation Using GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reager, J. T., II; Rao, P.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Turmon, M.

2015-12-01

Groundwater change is difficult to monitor over large scales. One of the most successful approaches is in the remote sensing of time-variable gravity using NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission data, and successful case studies have created the opportunity to move towards a global groundwater monitoring framework for the world's largest aquifers. To achieve these estimates, several approximations are applied, including those in GRACE processing corrections, the formulation of the formal GRACE errors, destriping and signal recovery, and the numerical model estimation of snow water, surface water and soil moisture storage states used to isolate a groundwater component. A major weakness in these approaches is inconsistency: different studies have used different sources of primary and ancillary data, and may achieve different results based on alternative choices in these approximations. In this study, we present two cases of groundwater change estimation in California and the Colorado River basin, selected for their good data availability and varied climates. We achieve a robust numerical estimate of post-processing uncertainties resulting from land-surface model structural shortcomings and model resolution errors. Groundwater variations should demonstrate less variability than the overlying soil moisture state does, as groundwater has a longer memory of past events due to buffering by infiltration and drainage rate limits. We apply a model ensemble approach in a Bayesian framework constrained by the assumption of decreasing signal variability with depth in the soil column. We also discuss time variable errors vs. time constant errors, across-scale errors v. across-model errors, and error spectral content (across scales and across model). More robust uncertainty quantification for GRACE-based groundwater estimates would take all of these issues into account, allowing for more fair use in management applications and for better integration of GRACE-based measurements with observations from other sources.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice sheet volume). Continual surrogate refinement guarantees asymptotic sampling from the predictive distribution. Directly characterizing the predictive distribution in this way allows us to assess the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate variability and change.

Modeling sea-surface temperature and its variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarachik, E. S.

1985-01-01

A brief review is presented of the temporal scales of sea surface temperature variability. Progress in modeling sea surface temperature, and remaining obstacles to the understanding of the variability is discussed.

Observational insights into chlorophyll distributions of subtropical South Indian Ocean eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufois, François; Hardman-Mountford, Nick J.; Fernandes, Michelle; Wojtasiewicz, Bozena; Shenoy, Damodar; Slawinski, Dirk; Gauns, Mangesh; Greenwood, Jim; Toresen, Reidar

2017-04-01

The South Indian Ocean subtropical gyre has been described as a unique environment where anticyclonic ocean eddies highlight enhanced surface chlorophyll in winter. The processes responsible for this chlorophyll increase in anticyclones have remained elusive, primarily because previous studies investigating this unusual behavior were mostly based on satellite data, which only views the ocean surface. Here we present in situ data from an oceanographic voyage focusing on the mesoscale variability of biogeochemical variables across the subtropical gyre. During this voyage an autonomous biogeochemical profiling float transected an anticyclonic eddy, recording its physical and biological state over a period of 6 weeks. We show that several processes might be responsible for the eddy/chlorophyll relationship, including horizontal advection of productive waters and deeper convective mixing in anticyclonic eddies. While a deep chlorophyll maximum is present in the subtropical Indian Ocean outside anticyclonic eddies, mixing reaches deeper in anticyclonic eddy cores, resulting in increased surface chlorophyll due to the stirring of the deep chlorophyll maximum and possibly resulting in new production from nitrate injection below the deep chlorophyll maximum.

Patterns and drivers for wetland connections in the Prairie Pothole Region, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vanderhoof, Melanie; Christensen, Jay R.; Alexander, Laurie C.

2017-01-01

Ecosystem function in rivers, lakes and coastal waters depends on the functioning of upstream aquatic ecosystems, necessitating an improved understanding of watershed-scale interactions including variable surface-water flows between wetlands and streams. As surface water in the Prairie Pothole Region expands in wet years, surface-water connections occur between many depressional wetlands and streams. Minimal research has explored the spatial patterns and drivers for the abundance of these connections, despite their potential to inform resource management and regulatory programs including the U.S. Clean Water Act. In this study, wetlands were identified that did not intersect the stream network, but were shown with Landsat images (1990–2011) to become merged with the stream network as surface water expanded. Wetlands were found to spill into or consolidate with other wetlands within both small (2–10 wetlands) and large (>100 wetlands) wetland clusters, eventually intersecting a stream channel, most often via a riparian wetland. These surface-water connections occurred over a wide range of wetland distances from streams (averaging 90–1400 m in different ecoregions). Differences in the spatial abundance of wetlands that show a variable surface-water connection to a stream were best explained by smaller wetland-to-wetland distances, greater wetland abundance, and maximum surface-water extent. This analysis demonstrated that wetland arrangement and surface water expansion are important mechanisms for depressional wetlands to connect to streams and provides a first step to understanding the frequency and abundance of these surface-water connections across the Prairie Pothole Region.

Capturing field-scale variability in crop performance across a regional-scale climosequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. S.; Poggio, M.; Anderson, T. R.; Gasch, C.; Yourek, M. A.; Ward, N. K.; Magney, T. S.; Brown, D. J.; Huggins, D. R.

2014-12-01

With the increasing availability of variable rate technology for applying fertilizers and other agrichemicals in dryland agricultural production systems there is a growing need to better capture and understand the processes driving field scale variability in crop yield and soil water. This need for a better understanding of field scale variability has led to the recent designation of the R. J. Cook Agronomy Farm (CAF) (Pullman, WA, USA) as a United States Department of Agriculture Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research (LTAR) site. Field scale variability at the CAF is closely monitored using extensive environmental sensor networks and intensive hand sampling. As investigating land-soil-water dynamics at CAF is essential for improving precision agriculture, transferring this knowledge across the regional-scale climosequence is challenging. In this study we describe the hydropedologic functioning of the CAF in relation to five extensively instrumented field sites located within 50 km in the same climatic region. The formation of restrictive argillic soil horizons in the wetter, cooler eastern edge of the region results in the development of extensive perched water tables, surface saturation, and surface runoff, whereas excess water is not an issue in the warmer, drier, western edge of the region. Similarly, crop and tillage management varies across the region as well. We discuss the implications of these regional differences on field scale management decisions and demonstrate how we are using proximal soil sensing and remote sensing imagery to better understand and capture field scale variability at a particular field site.

From nanoelectronics to nano-spintronics.

PubMed

Wang, Kang L; Ovchinnikov, Igor; Xiu, Faxian; Khitun, Alex; Bao, Ming

2011-01-01

Today's electronics uses electron charge as a state variable for logic and computing operation, which is often represented as voltage or current. In this representation of state variable, carriers in electronic devices behave independently even to a few and single electron cases. As the scaling continues to reduce the physical feature size and to increase the functional throughput, two most outstanding limitations and major challenges, among others, are power dissipation and variability as identified by ITRS. This paper presents the expose, in that collective phenomena, e.g., spintronics using appropriate order parameters of magnetic moment as a state variable may be considered favorably for a new room-temperature information processing paradigm. A comparison between electronics and spintronics in terms of variability, quantum and thermal fluctuations will be presented. It shows that the benefits of the scalability to smaller sizes in the case of spintronics (nanomagnetics) include a much reduced variability problem as compared with today's electronics. In addition, another advantage of using nanomagnets is the possibility of constructing nonvolatile logics, which allow for immense power savings during system standby. However, most of devices with magnetic moment usually use current to drive the devices and consequently, power dissipation is a major issue. We will discuss approaches of using electric-field control of ferromagnetism in dilute magnetic semiconductor (DMS) and metallic ferromagnetic materials. With the DMSs, carrier-mediated transition from paramagnetic to ferromagnetic phases make possible to have devices work very much like field effect transistor, plus the non-volatility afforded by ferromagnetism. Then we will describe new possibilities of the use of electric field for metallic materials and devices: Spin wave devices with multiferroics materials. We will also further describe a potential new method of electric field control of metallic ferromagnetism via field effect of the Thomas Fermi surface layer.

A mathematical framework for modelling cambial surface evolution using a level set method

PubMed Central

Sellier, Damien; Plank, Michael J.; Harrington, Jonathan J.

2011-01-01

Background and Aims During their lifetime, tree stems take a series of successive nested shapes. Individual tree growth models traditionally focus on apical growth and architecture. However, cambial growth, which is distributed over a surface layer wrapping the whole organism, equally contributes to plant form and function. This study aims at providing a framework to simulate how organism shape evolves as a result of a secondary growth process that occurs at the cellular scale. Methods The development of the vascular cambium is modelled as an expanding surface using the level set method. The surface consists of multiple compartments following distinct expansion rules. Growth behaviour can be formulated as a mathematical function of surface state variables and independent variables to describe biological processes. Key Results The model was coupled to an architectural model and to a forest stand model to simulate cambium dynamics and wood formation at the scale of the organism. The model is able to simulate competition between cambia, surface irregularities and local features. Predicting the shapes associated with arbitrarily complex growth functions does not add complexity to the numerical method itself. Conclusions Despite their slenderness, it is sometimes useful to conceive of trees as expanding surfaces. The proposed mathematical framework provides a way to integrate through time and space the biological and physical mechanisms underlying cambium activity. It can be used either to test growth hypotheses or to generate detailed maps of wood internal structure. PMID:21470972

Baroclinic instability with variable gravity: A perturbation analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giere, A. C.; Fowliss, W. W.; Arias, S.

1980-01-01

Solutions for a quasigeostrophic baroclinic stability problem in which gravity is a function of height were obtained. Curvature and horizontal shear of the basic state flow were omitted and the vertical and horizontal temperature gradients of the basic state were taken as constant. The effect of a variable dielectric body force, analogous to gravity, on baroclinic instability for the design of a spherical, baroclinic model for Spacelab was determined. Such modeling could not be performed in a laboratory on the Earth's surface because the body force could not be made strong enough to dominate terrestrial gravity. A consequence of the body force variation and the preceding assumptions was that the potential vorticity gradient of the basic state vanished. The problem was solved using a perturbation method. The solution gives results which are qualitatively similar to Eady's results for constant gravity; a short wavelength cutoff and a wavelength of maximum growth rate were observed. The averaged values of the basic state indicate that both the wavelength range of the instability and the growth rate at maximum instability are increased. Results indicate that the presence of the variable body force will not significantly alter the dynamics of the Spacelab experiment. The solutions are also relevant to other geophysical fluid flows where gravity is constant but the static stability or Brunt-Vaisala frequency is a function of height.

The 1959 MW 7.3 Hebgen Lake earthquake revisited: morphology and mechanics from lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, K. L.; Nissen, E.; Lajoie, L. J.

2016-12-01

This study demonstrates how we can glean new information by revisiting an early instrumental earthquake with high-resolution topography and modern thinking about the mechanics of surface rupturing. The 1959 MW 7.3 Hebgen Lake earthquake is among the largest and most deadly historic earthquakes within the conterminous United States outside of California, and one of the largest normal faulting earthquakes on record globally. The earthquake ruptured the subparallel Hebgen and Red Canyon faults within the slowly extending ( 3 mm/yr) Centennial Mountain Belt, and is one of the first to be field mapped in detail, modeled from global seismograms, and surveyed geodetically. Here, we augment these early studies with an investigation of the surface rupture in its current state. We use a 50 cm-resolution airborne lidar digital terrain model collected by the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) in 2014 to document the fault scarp morphology, constrain its evolution, and speculate on the mechanical rupture properties. Using a dense set of scarp profiles, we add >400 displacement measurements to the 143 published data points from early field work, allowing more rigorous quantification of along-strike slip variability and strain gradients. Evidence of off-fault deformation is sparse along most of the scarp, though damage zone width increases where the earthquake ruptured closely spaced sedimentary contacts rather than unconsolidated Quaternary deposits. In a few places, we can identify composite scarps from which we estimate the number of earthquakes that have offset Holocene surfaces. We assess the scarp's degraded state, including some sites that were surveyed in 1980 and 2009 and others that have not been revisited since the initial investigation. Where the rupture crosses unconsolidated surfaces, we compute local sediment diffusion coefficients and analyze their variability along strike. Lastly, we model subsurface fault geometry by fitting dipping planes to its surface trace, testing our best-fit fault dips against those recovered in seismic analyses; this reaffirms that both main rupture strands correspond to primary faulting rather than induced landsliding.

A 3-step framework for understanding the added value of surface soil moisture measurements for large-scale runoff prediction via data assimilation - a synthetic study in the Arkansas-Red River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Crow, W. T.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in runoff generation both by partitioning infiltration and surface runoff during rainfall events and by controlling the rate of subsurface flow during inter-storm periods. Therefore, more accurate SM state estimation in hydrologic models is potentially beneficial for streamflow prediction. Various previous studies have explored the potential of assimilating SM data into hydrologic models for streamflow improvement. These studies have drawn inconsistent conclusions, ranging from significantly improved runoff via SM data assimilation (DA) to limited or degraded runoff. These studies commonly treat the whole assimilation procedure as a black box without separating the contribution of each step in the procedure, making it difficult to attribute the underlying causes of runoff improvement (or the lack thereof). In this study, we decompose the overall DA process into three steps by answering the following questions (3-step framework): 1) how much can assimilation of surface SM measurements improve surface SM state in a hydrologic model? 2) how much does surface SM improvement propagate to deeper layers? 3) How much does (surface and deeper-layer) SM improvement propagate into runoff improvement? A synthetic twin experiment is carried out in the Arkansas-Red River basin ( 600,000 km2) where a synthetic "truth" run, an open-loop run (without DA) and a DA run (where synthetic surface SM measurements are assimilated) are generated. All model runs are performed at 1/8 degree resolution and over a 10-year period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model at a 3-hourly time step. For the DA run, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is applied. The updated surface and deeper-layer SM states with DA are compared to the open-loop SM to quantitatively evaluate the first two steps in the framework. To quantify the third step, a set of perfect-state runs are generated where the "true" SM states are directly inserted in the model to assess the maximum possible runoff improvement that can be achieved by improving SM states alone. Our results show that the 3-step framework is able to effectively identify the potential as well as bottleneck of runoff improvement and point out the cases where runoff improvement via assimilation of surface SM is prone to failure.

Modes of hurricane activity variability in the eastern Pacific: Implications for the 2016 season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucharel, Julien; Jin, Fei-Fei; England, Matthew H.; Lin, I. I.

2016-11-01

A gridded product of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the eastern Pacific is constructed to assess the dominant mode of tropical cyclone (TC) activity variability. Results of an empirical orthogonal function decomposition and regression analysis of environmental variables indicate that the two dominant modes of ACE variability (40% of the total variance) are related to different flavors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first mode, more active during the later part of the hurricane season (September-November), is linked to the eastern Pacific El Niño through the delayed oceanic control associated with the recharge-discharge mechanism. The second mode, dominant in the early months of the hurricane season, is related to the central Pacific El Niño mode and the associated changes in atmospheric variability. A multilinear regression forecast model of the dominant principal components of ACE variability is then constructed. The wintertime subsurface state of the eastern equatorial Pacific (characterizing ENSO heat discharge), the east-west tilt of the thermocline (describing ENSO phase transition), the anomalous ocean surface conditions in the TC region in spring (portraying atmospheric changes induced by persistence of local surface anomalies), and the intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the western Pacific are found to be good predictors of TC activity. Results complement NOAA's official forecast by providing additional spatial and temporal information. They indicate a more active 2016 season ( 2 times the ACE mean) with a spatial expansion into the central Pacific associated with the heat discharge from the 2015/2016 El Niño.

Evidence of organized intraseasonal convection linked to ocean dynamics in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addezio, Joseph M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu

2018-01-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant driver of intraseasonal variability across the equatorial domain of the global ocean with alternating wet and dry bands that propagate eastward primarily between 5°N and 5°S. Past research has shown that MJOs impact the surface and subsurface variability of the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) (55°E-65°E, 5°S-12°S) located in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO), but investigations of how SWTIO internal dynamics may play an important role in producing MJO events remain limited. This study uses Argo, in conjunction with several remote sensing and reanalysis products, to demonstrate that SWTIO oceanic dynamics, particularly barrier layer formation and near surface heat buildup, may be associated with MJO genesis between August and December of most years between 2005 and 2013. A total of eight SWTIO specific MJO events are observed, all occurring between August and December. Four of the eight events are correlated with positive SWTIO total heat content (THC) and barrier layer thickness (BLT) interannual anomalies. Two others formed over the SWTIO during times when only one of the variables was at or above their seasonal average, while two additional events occurred when both variables experienced negative interannual anomalies. Lacking complete 1:1 correlation between the hypothesized oceanic state and the identified SWTIO MJO events, we conclude that additional work is required to better understand when variability in key oceanic variables plays a primary role in regional MJO genesis or when other factors, such as atmospheric variability, are the dominate drivers.

Steady-state solution of the semi-empirical diffusion equation for area sources. [air pollution studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebedeff, S. A.; Hameed, S.

1975-01-01

The problem investigated can be solved exactly in a simple manner if the equations are written in terms of a similarity variable. The exact solution is used to explore two questions of interest in the modelling of urban air pollution, taking into account the distribution of surface concentration downwind of an area source and the distribution of concentration with height.

Landsat classification of surface-water presence during multiple years to assess response of playa wetlands to climatic variability across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manier, Daniel J.; Rover, Jennifer R.

2018-02-15

To improve understanding of the distribution of ecologically important, ephemeral wetland habitats across the Great Plains, the occurrence and distribution of surface water in playa wetland complexes were documented for four different years across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) region. This information is important because it informs land and wildlife managers about the timing and location of habitat availability. Data with an accurate timestamp that indicate the presence of water, the percent of the area inundated with water, and the spatial distribution of playa wetlands with water are needed for a host of resource inventory, monitoring, and research applications. For example, the distribution of inundated wetlands forms the spatial pattern of available habitat for resident shorebirds and water birds, stop-over habitats for migratory birds, connectivity and clustering of wetland habitats, and surface waters that recharge the Ogallala aquifer; there is considerable variability in the distribution of playa wetlands holding water through time. Documentation of these spatially and temporally intricate processes, here, provides data required to assess connections between inundation and multiple environmental drivers, such as climate, land use, soil, and topography. Climate drivers are understood to interact with land cover, land use and soil attributes in determining the amount of water that flows overland into playa wetlands. Results indicated significant spatial variability represented by differences in the percent of playas inundated among States within the GPLCC. Further, analysis-of-variance comparison of differences in inundation between years showed significant differences in all cases. Although some connections with seasonal moisture patterns may be observed, the complex spatial-temporal gradients of precipitation, temperature, soils, and land use need to be combined as covariates in multivariate models to effectively account for these patterns. We demonstrate the feasibility of using classification of Landsat satellite imagery to describe playa-wetland inundation across years and seasons. Evaluating classifications representing only 4 years of imagery, we found significant year-to-year and state-to-state differences in inundation rates.

Modern Material Analysis Instruments Add a New Dimension to Materials Characterization and Failure Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panda, Binayak

2009-01-01

Modern analytical tools can yield invaluable results during materials characterization and failure analysis. Scanning electron microscopes (SEMs) provide significant analytical capabilities, including angstrom-level resolution. These systems can be equipped with a silicon drift detector (SDD) for very fast yet precise analytical mapping of phases, as well as electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) units to map grain orientations, chambers that admit large samples, variable pressure for wet samples, and quantitative analysis software to examine phases. Advanced solid-state electronics have also improved surface and bulk analysis instruments: Secondary ion mass spectroscopy (SIMS) can quantitatively determine and map light elements such as hydrogen, lithium, and boron - with their isotopes. Its high sensitivity detects impurities at parts per billion (ppb) levels. X-ray photo-electron spectroscopy (XPS) can determine oxidation states of elements, as well as identifying polymers and measuring film thicknesses on coated composites. This technique is also known as electron spectroscopy for chemical analysis (ESCA). Scanning Auger electron spectroscopy (SAM) combines surface sensitivity, spatial lateral resolution (10 nm), and depth profiling capabilities to describe elemental compositions of near and below surface regions down to the chemical state of an atom.

Can Protection Motivation Theory explain farmers'adaptation to Climate change/variability decision making in the Gambia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagagnan, A. R.

2016-12-01

In the Gambia, Changes in the climate pattern has affected and continue to affect the agriculture sector and therefore calling for effective adaptation policies. The present study aimed to explain farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation measure through the protection motivation theory in The Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in all the eight communities of the study area. A transect walk was conducted first followed by a survey with 283 informants. The perception variables were referring to the past 20 years while the stated implementation was addressing the current adaptation practices. Results showed that on one hand, most of the perception variables such as severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers are significantly correlated to protection motivation and on the other hand Protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique are strongly correlated. Structural Equation Modeling confirms the mediation role of Protection motivation between Farmers stated implementation and their perception of climate variability. Decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, decrease of the length of the growing season are factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. Cost of the implementation and farmers' vulnerability are factors that prevent farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation is the main barrier to farmers `protection motivation. Therefore the study suggested that farmers' awareness about climate change/variability should be increased through farmers' field school and awareness campaigns, farmers' resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be made accessible to farmers through loans facilities and subsidizes application.

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive Mission (SMAP): Science and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, Dara; O'Neill, Peggy; Njoku, Eni

2009-01-01

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive mission (SMAP) will provide global maps of soil moisture content and surface freeze/thaw state. Global measurements of these variables are critical for terrestrial water and carbon cycle applications. The SMAP observatory consists of two multipolarization L-band sensors, a radar and radiometer, that share a deployable-mesh reflector antenna. The combined observations from the two sensors will allow accurate estimation of soil moisture at hydrometeorological (10 km) and hydroclimatological (40 km) spatial scales. The rotating antenna configuration provides conical scans of the Earth surface at a constant look angle. The wide-swath (1000 km) measurements will allow global mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state with 2-3 days revisit. Freeze/thaw in boreal latitudes will be mapped using the radar at 3 km resolution with 1-2 days revisit. The synergy of active and passive observations enables measurements of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state with unprecedented resolution, sensitivity, area coverage and revisit.

Springwater geochemistry at Honey Creek State Natural Area, central Texas: Implications for surface water and groundwater interaction in a karst aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musgrove, M.; Stern, L. A.; Banner, J. L.

2010-06-01

SummaryA two and a half year study of two adjacent watersheds at the Honey Creek State Natural Area (HCSNA) in central Texas was undertaken to evaluate spatial and temporal variations in springwater geochemistry, geochemical evolution processes, and potential effects of brush control on karst watershed hydrology. The watersheds are geologically and geomorphologically similar, and each has springs discharging into Honey Creek, a tributary to the Guadalupe River. Springwater geochemistry is considered in a regional context of aquifer components including soil water, cave dripwater, springwater, and phreatic groundwater. Isotopic and trace element variability allows us to identify both vadose and phreatic groundwater contributions to surface water in Honey Creek. Spatial and temporal geochemical data for six springs reveal systematic differences between the two watersheds. Springwater Sr isotope values lie between values for the limestone bedrock and soils at HCSNA, reflecting a balance between these two primary sources of Sr. Sr isotope values for springs within each watershed are consistent with differences between soil compositions. At some of the springs, consistent temporal variability in springwater geochemistry (Sr isotopes, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca values) appears to reflect changes in climatic and hydrologic parameters (rainfall/recharge) that affect watershed processes. Springwater geochemistry was unaffected by brush removal at the scale of the HCSNA study. Results of this study build on previous regional studies to provide insight into watershed hydrology and regional hydrologic processes, including connections between surface water, vadose groundwater, and phreatic groundwater.

Very highly excited vibrational states of LiCN using a discrete variable representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, James R.; Tennyson, Jonathan

Calculations are presented for the lowest 900 vibrational (J = 0) states of the LiCN floppy system for a two dimensional potential energy surface (rCN frozen). Most of these states lie well above the barrier separating the two linear isomers of the molecule and the point where the classical dynamics of the system becomes chaotic. Analysis of the wavefunctions of individual states in the high energy region shows that while most have an irregular nodal structure, a significant number of states appear regular - corresponding to solutions of standard, 'mode localized' hamiltonians. Motions corresponding in zero-order to Li-CN and Li-NC normal modes as well as free rotor states are identified. The distribution of level spacings is also studied and yields results in good agreement with those obtained by analysing nodal structures.

A comparison of sea surface salinity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998, 2012-2013, and 2014-2015 ENSO events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, Caroline M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Giese, Benjamin S.

2017-11-01

Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability during the 1997-1998 El Niño event and the failed 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 El Niño events is explored using a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses. Previously, studies have mainly focused on the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) variability. This analysis utilizes salinity data from Argo and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis to examine the SSS variability. Advective processes and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability is understood to influence SSS variability. Using surface wind, surface current, evaporation, and precipitation data, we analyze the causes for the observed SSS variability during each event. Barrier layer thickness and upper level salt content are also examined in connection to subsurface salinity variability. Both advective processes and E-P variability are important during the generation and onset of a successful El Niño, while a lack of one or both of these processes leads to a failed ENSO event.

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent

2015-01-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Assessing air-sea interaction in the evolving NASA GEOS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayson, C. A.; Roberts, J. B.

2014-12-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Identifying Slow Molecular Motions in Complex Chemical Reactions.

PubMed

Piccini, GiovanniMaria; Polino, Daniela; Parrinello, Michele

2017-09-07

We have studied the cyclization reaction of deprotonated 4-chloro-1-butanethiol to tetrahydrothiophene by means of well-tempered metadynamics. To properly select the collective variables, we used the recently proposed variational approach to conformational dynamics within the framework of metadyanmics. This allowed us to select the appropriate linear combinations from a set of collective variables representing the slow degrees of freedom that best describe the slow modes of the reaction. We performed our calculations at three different temperatures, namely, 300, 350, and 400 K. We show that the choice of such collective variables allows one to easily interpret the complex free-energy surface of such a reaction by univocal identification of the conformers belonging to reactants and product states playing a fundamental role in the reaction mechanism.

Single step optimization of manipulator maneuvers with variable structure control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, N.; Dwyer, T. A. W., III

1987-01-01

One step ahead optimization has been recently proposed for spacecraft attitude maneuvers as well as for robot manipulator maneuvers. Such a technique yields a discrete time control algorithm implementable as a sequence of state-dependent, quadratic programming problems for acceleration optimization. Its sensitivity to model accuracy, for the required inversion of the system dynamics, is shown in this paper to be alleviated by a fast variable structure control correction, acting between the sampling intervals of the slow one step ahead discrete time acceleration command generation algorithm. The slow and fast looping concept chosen follows that recently proposed for optimal aiming strategies with variable structure control. Accelerations required by the VSC correction are reserved during the slow one step ahead command generation so that the ability to overshoot the sliding surface is guaranteed.

Observational breakthroughs lead the way to improved hydrological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2017-04-01

New data sources are revolutionizing the hydrological sciences. The capabilities of hydrological models have advanced greatly over the last several decades, but until recently model capabilities have outstripped the spatial resolution and accuracy of model forcings (atmospheric variables at the land surface) and the hydrologic state variables (e.g., soil moisture; snow water equivalent) that the models predict. This has begun to change, as shown in two examples here: soil moisture and drought evolution over Africa as predicted by a hydrology model forced with satellite-derived precipitation, and observations of snow water equivalent at very high resolution over a river basin in California's Sierra Nevada.

High Performance Variable Emittance Devices for Spacecraft Application Based on Conducting Polymers Coupled with Ionic Liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandrasekhar, Prasanna; Zay, Brian J.; Barbolt, Scott; Werner, Robert; Birur, Gajanana C.; Paris, Anthony

2009-03-01

This contribution describes the fabrication, function and performance of thin-film variable emittance electrochromic skins fabricated using poly(aniline) as the conducting polymer (CP), a long-chain polymeric dopant, and an ionic liquid as electrolyte. The ionic electrolyte allows operation in space vacuum without any seals. A unique, space-durable coating applied to the external surface of the skins drastically lowers the solar absorptance of the skins, such that in their dark (highly emissive) electrochromic state, it is no more than 0.44, whilst in their light electrochromic state, it is ca. 0.3. Data presented show tailorable, variations from 0.19 to 0.90, ∀(s)<0.3, and nearly indefinite cyclability. Extended thermal vacuum, atomic-O, micrometeoroid, VUV and other studies show excellent space durability. Performance of a doughnut-shaped skin designed for a specific micro-spacecraft is also described.

Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Northern Forested and Harvested Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, K. M.; Kellman, L. M.

2005-12-01

Very little is known about how deforestation alters the soil subsurface production and surface emissions of N2O from northern forest soils. Soil N2O surface fluxes and subsurface concentrations from two 3 year old harvested and intact forest pairs of contrasting soil texture were monitored during the 2004 and 2005 growing seasons in the Acadian forest of Atlantic Canada in order to: 1) quantify N2O emissions associated with each land-use type, 2) examine spatial and temporal variations in subsurface concentrations and surface fluxes at each site, and 3) determine the suitability of a photoacoustic gas monitor (PGM) for in- situ field measurements vs. field sample collection and laboratory analysis on a gas chromatograph. Each site was instrumented with 11 permanent collars for surface flux measurements designed to capture the microsite variability at the sites. Subsurface soil gas samplers, designed to identify the important zones of N2O production in the vertical profile were installed at depths of 0, 10, 20 and 35 cm below the organic-mineral soil interface. Surface fluxes were measured with non-steady-state vented surface flux chambers with measurements of all surface flux and subsurface data made on a bi-weekly basis. Results suggest that spatial and temporal variability in surface emissions are very high and routinely close to zero. Subsurface profile concentration data shows vertical concentration profiles at intact forest sites with concentrations close to atmospheric, while harvested sites show a pattern of increasing N2O concentration with depth, reaching a maximum of approximately 27000ppb at 35cm.

Application of a fully integrated surface-subsurface physically based flow model for evaluating groundwater recharge from a flash flood event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, Cristian; Herrera, Paulo; Therrien, René

2017-04-01

In many arid regions around the world groundwater recharge occurs during flash floods. This transient spatially and temporally concentrated flood-recharge process takes place through the variably saturated zone between surface and usually the deep groundwater table. These flood events are characterized by rapid and extreme changes in surface flow depth and velocity and soil moisture conditions. Infiltration rates change over time controlled by the hydraulic gradients and the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity at the surface-subsurface interface. Today is a challenge to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge from flash flood events under real field conditions at different scales in arid areas. We apply an integrated surface-subsurface variably saturated physically-based flow model at the watershed scale to assess the recharge process during and after a flash flood event registered in an arid fluvial valley in Northern Chile. We are able to reproduce reasonably well observed groundwater levels and surface flow discharges during and after the flood with a calibrated model. We also investigate the magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of recharge and the response of the system to variations of different surface and subsurface parameters, initial soil moisture content and groundwater table depths and surface flow conditions. We demonstrate how an integrated physically based model allows the exploration of different spatial and temporal system states, and that the analysis of the results of the simulations help us to improve our understanding of the recharge processes in similar type of systems that are common to many arid areas around the world.

Robust Representation of Integrated Surface-subsurface Hydrology at Watershed Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, S. L.; Tang, G.; Collier, N.; Jan, A.; Karra, S.

2015-12-01

A representation of integrated surface-subsurface hydrology is the central component to process-rich watershed models that are emerging as alternatives to traditional reduced complexity models. These physically based systems are important for assessing potential impacts of climate change and human activities on groundwater-dependent ecosystems and water supply and quality. Integrated surface-subsurface models typically couple three-dimensional solutions for variably saturated flow in the subsurface with the kinematic- or diffusion-wave equation for surface flows. The computational scheme for coupling the surface and subsurface systems is key to the robustness, computational performance, and ease-of-implementation of the integrated system. A new, robust approach for coupling the subsurface and surface systems is developed from the assumption that the vertical gradient in head is negligible at the surface. This tight-coupling assumption allows the surface flow system to be incorporated directly into the subsurface system; effects of surface flow and surface water accumulation are represented as modifications to the subsurface flow and accumulation terms but are not triggered until the subsurface pressure reaches a threshold value corresponding to the appearance of water on the surface. The new approach has been implemented in the highly parallel PFLOTRAN (www.pflotran.org) code. Several synthetic examples and three-dimensional examples from the Walker Branch Watershed in Oak Ridge TN demonstrate the utility and robustness of the new approach using unstructured computational meshes. Representation of solute transport in the new approach is also discussed. Notice: This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under Contract No. DE-AC0500OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for the United States Government purposes.

The roles of time and displacement in velocity-dependent volumetric strain of fault zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, N.M.; Tullis, T.E.

1997-01-01

The relationship between measured friction??A and volumetric strain during frictional sliding was determined using a rate and state variable dependent friction constitutive equation, a common work balance relating friction and volume change, and two types of experimental faults: initially bare surfaces of Westerly granite and rock surfaces separated by a 1 mm layer of < 90 ??m Westerly granite gouge. The constitutive equation is the sum of a constant term representing the nominal resistance to sliding and two smaller terms: a rate dependent term representing the shear viscosity of the fault surface (direct effect), and a term which represents variations in the area of contact (evolution effect). The work balance relationship requires that ??A differs from the frictional resistance that leads to shear heating by the derivative of fault normal displacement with respect shear displacement, d??n ld??s. An implication of this relationship is that the rate dependence of d??n ld??s contributes to the rate dependence of ??A. Experiments show changes in sliding velocity lead to changes in both fault strength and volume. Analysis of data with the rate and state equations combined with the work balance relationship preclude the conventional interpretation of the direct effect in the rate and state variable constitutive equations. Consideration of a model bare surface fault consisting of an undeformable indentor sliding on a deformable surface reveals a serious flaw in the work balance relationship if volume change is time-dependent. For the model, at zero slip rate indentation creep under the normal load leads to time-dependent strengthening of the fault surface but, according to the work balance relationship, no work is done because compaction or dilatancy can only be induced by shearing. Additional tests on initially bare surfaces and gouges show that fault normal strain in experiments is time-dependent, consistent with the model. This time-dependent fault normal strain, which is not accounted for in the work balance relationship, explains the inconsistency between the constitutive equations and the work balance. For initially bare surface faults, all rate dependence of volume change is due to time dependence. Similar results are found for gouge. We conclude that ??A reflects the frictional resistance that results in shear heating, and no correction needs to be made for the volume changes. The result that time-dependent volume changes do not contribute to ??A is a general result and extends beyond these experiments, the simple indentor model and particular constitutive equations used to illustrate the principle.

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderhoof, Melanie K.; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael G.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

2018-03-01

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985-2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Central Tropical Pacific Variability And ENSO Response To Changing Climate Boundary Conditions: Evidence From Individual Line Island Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustic, G. T.; Polissar, P. J.; Ravelo, A. C.; White, S. M.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a dominant role in Earth's climate variability. Paleoceanographic evidence suggests that ENSO has changed in the past, and these changes have been linked to large-scale climatic shifts. While a close relationship between ENSO evolution and climate boundary conditions has been predicted, testing these predictions remains challenging. These climate boundary conditions, including insolation, the mean surface temperature gradient of the tropical Pacific, global ice volume, and tropical thermocline depth, often co-vary and may work together to suppress or enhance the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO variability. Furthermore, suitable paleo-archives spanning multiple climate states are sparse. We have aimed to test ENSO response to changing climate boundary conditions by generating new reconstructions of mixed-layer variability from sedimentary archives spanning the last three glacial-interglacial cycles from the Central Tropical Pacific Line Islands, where El Niño is strongly expressed. We analyzed Mg/Ca ratios from individual foraminifera to reconstruct mixed-layer variability at discrete time intervals representing combinations of climatic boundary conditions from the middle Holocene to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 8. We observe changes in the mixed-layer temperature variability during MIS 5 and during the previous interglacial (MIS 7) showing significant reductions in ENSO amplitude. Differences in variability during glacial and interglacial intervals are also observed. Additionally, we reconstructed mixed-layer and thermocline conditions using multi-species Mg/Ca and stable isotope measurements to more fully characterize the state of the Central Tropical Pacific during these intervals. These reconstructions provide us with a unique view of Central Tropical Pacific variability and water-column structure at discrete intervals under varying boundary climate conditions with which to assess factors that shape ENSO variability.

Multi-scale landscape factors influencing stream water quality in the state of Oregon.

PubMed

Nash, Maliha S; Heggem, Daniel T; Ebert, Donald; Wade, Timothy G; Hall, Robert K

2009-09-01

Enterococci bacteria are used to indicate the presence of human and/or animal fecal materials in surface water. In addition to human influences on the quality of surface water, a cattle grazing is a widespread and persistent ecological stressor in the Western United States. Cattle may affect surface water quality directly by depositing nutrients and bacteria, and indirectly by damaging stream banks or removing vegetation cover, which may lead to increased sediment loads. This study used the State of Oregon surface water data to determine the likelihood of animal pathogen presence using enterococci and analyzed the spatial distribution and relationship of biotic (enterococci) and abiotic (nitrogen and phosphorous) surface water constituents to landscape metrics and others (e.g. human use, percent riparian cover, natural covers, grazing, etc.). We used a grazing potential index (GPI) based on proximity to water, land ownership and forage availability. Mean and variability of GPI, forage availability, stream density and length, and landscape metrics were related to enterococci and many forms of nitrogen and phosphorous in standard and logistic regression models. The GPI did not have a significant role in the models, but forage related variables had significant contribution. Urban land use within stream reach was the main driving factor when exceeding the threshold (> or =35 cfu/100 ml), agriculture was the driving force in elevating enterococci in sites where enterococci concentration was <35 cfu/100 ml. Landscape metrics related to amount of agriculture, wetlands and urban all contributed to increasing nutrients in surface water but at different scales. The probability of having sites with concentrations of enterococci above the threshold was much lower in areas of natural land cover and much higher in areas with higher urban land use within 60 m of stream. A 1% increase in natural land cover was associated with a 12% decrease in the predicted odds of having a site exceeding the threshold. Opposite to natural land cover, a one unit change in each of manmade barren and urban land use led to an increase of the likelihood of exceeding the threshold by 73%, and 11%, respectively. Change in urban land use had a higher influence on the likelihood of a site exceeding the threshold than that of natural land cover.

Decadal Variability of Surface Incident Solar Radiation over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun

2015-04-01

Observations have reported a widespread dimming of surface incident solar radiation (Rs) from the 1950s to the 1980s and a brightening afterwards. However, none of the state-of-the-art earth system models, including those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), could successfully reproduce the dimming/brightening rates over China. This study provides metadata and reference data to investigate the observed variability of Rs in China. From 1958 to 1990, diffuse solar radiation (Rsdif) and direct solar radiation (Rsdir) was measured separately in China, from which Rs was calculated a sum. However, pyranometers used to measure Rsdif had a strong sensitivity drift problem, which introduced a spurious decreasing trend to Rsdif and Rs measurements. The observed Rsdir did not suffer from such sensitivity drift problem. From 1990 to 1993, the old instruments were replaced and measuring stations were relocated in China, which introduced an abrupt increase in the observed Rs. After 1993, Rs was measured by solid black thermopile pyranometers. Comprehensive comparisons between observation-based and model-based Rs performed in this research have shown that sunshine duration (SunDu)-derived Rs is of high quality and provide accurate estimate of decadal variability of Rs over China. SunDu-derived Rs averaged over 105 stations in China decreased at -2.9 W m-2 per decade from 1961 to 1990 and remained stable afterward. This decadal variability has been confirmed by the observed Rsdir, independent studies on aerosols and diurnal temperature range, and can be reproduced by certain high-quality earth system models. However, neither satellite retrievals (the Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX SRB)) nor reanalyses (ERA-Interim and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)) can accurately reproduce such decadal variability of Rs over China for their exclusion of annual variability of tropospheric aerosols.

Synopsis of ground-water and surface-water resources of North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, T.C.; Benson, R.D.; Engberg, R.A.; Wiche, G.J.; Emerson, D.G.; Crosby, O.A.; Miller, J.E.

1984-01-01

This report describes the surface- and ground-water resources of North Dakota and the limitations of our understanding of these resources. Ground water and surface water are actually one resource, because they are often hydraulically interconnected. They are discussed separately for convenience. In general, the surface-water resources of the mainstem of the Missouri river are abundant and suitable for most uses. Other rivers may be important locally as water-supply sources, but the quantities of flow are small, quite variable in time, and generally of an unsuitable quality for most uses. Streamflow characteristics of North Dakota reflect its arid to semiarid climate (annual precipitation varies from 13 to 20 inches from west to east across the State), cold winters (usually including a significant snowpack available for spring snowmelt runoff), and the seasonal distribution of annual precipitation (almost 50 percent falls from Nky to July).Significant volumes of shallow ground water, of variable quality are found in the glacial-drift aquifers in parts of central, northern, and eastern North Dakota. Existing information provides only a limited capability to assess the long-term reliability of these scattered aquifers. There are significant indications, however, of water-quality problems related to sustained production of wells if long-term utilization of these aquifers is planned. A summary of the general suitability for use of surface water and ground water is given in Table E1.

Nanoparticle growth and surface chemistry changes in cell-conditioned culture medium.

PubMed

Kendall, Michaela; Hodges, Nikolas J; Whitwell, Harry; Tyrrell, Jess; Cangul, Hakan

2015-02-05

When biomolecules attach to engineered nanoparticle (ENP) surfaces, they confer the particles with a new biological identity. Physical format may also radically alter, changing ENP stability and agglomeration state within seconds. In order to measure which biomolecules are associated with early ENP growth, we studied ENPs in conditioned medium from A549 cell culture, using dynamic light scattering (DLS) and linear trap quadrupole electron transfer dissociation mass spectrometry. Two types of 100 nm polystyrene particles (one uncoated and one with an amine functionalized surface) were used to measure the influence of surface type. In identically prepared conditioned medium, agglomeration was visible in all samples after 1 h, but was variable, indicating inter-sample variability in secretion rates and extracellular medium conditions. In samples conditioned for 1 h or more, ENP agglomeration rates varied significantly. Agglomerate size measured by DLS was well correlated with surface sequestered peptide number for uncoated but not for amine coated polystyrene ENPs. Amine-coated ENPs grew much faster and into larger agglomerates associated with fewer sequestered peptides, but including significant sequestered lactose dehydrogenase. We conclude that interference with extracellular peptide balance and oxidoreductase activity via sequestration is worthy of further study, as increased oxidative stress via this new mechanism may be important for cell toxicity. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Williams, P.; Mankin, J. S.; Seager, R.; Smerdon, J. E.; Singh, D.

2017-12-01

Coastal droughts simultaneously affecting California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire, agriculture). To better understand these events, we use historical observations to investigate: (1) drought variability along the Pacific Coast of the Contiguous United States and (2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October-March) precipitation variability along the Pacific Coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounts for >40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode ( 20% of precipitation variability) characterized by anti-phased moisture anomalies across 40N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895-2016 (clustering in the 1920s-1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts, but not north of this boundary where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful predictions of these events at the seasonal scale. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks.

Hidden complexity of free energy surfaces for peptide (protein) folding.

PubMed

Krivov, Sergei V; Karplus, Martin

2004-10-12

An understanding of the thermodynamics and kinetics of protein folding requires a knowledge of the free energy surface governing the motion of the polypeptide chain. Because of the many degrees of freedom involved, surfaces projected on only one or two progress variables are generally used in descriptions of the folding reaction. Such projections result in relatively smooth surfaces, but they could mask the complexity of the unprojected surface. Here we introduce an approach to determine the actual (unprojected) free energy surface and apply it to the second beta-hairpin of protein G, which has been used as a model system for protein folding. The surface is represented by a disconnectivity graph calculated from a long equilibrium folding-unfolding trajectory. The denatured state is found to have multiple low free energy basins. Nevertheless, the peptide shows exponential kinetics in folding to the native basin. Projected surfaces obtained from the present analysis have a simple form in agreement with other studies of the beta-hairpin. The hidden complexity found for the beta-hairpin surface suggests that the standard funnel picture of protein folding should be revisited.

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Climate Model Simulations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, Thomas J.; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi -Yen

Several independent measurements of warm-season soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables recorded at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) research facility are used to estimate the terrestrial component of land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) strength and its regional uncertainty. The observations reveal substantial variation in coupling strength, as estimated from three soil moisture measurements at a single site, as well as across six other sites having varied soil and land cover types. The observational estimates then serve as references for evaluating SGP terrestrial coupling strength in the Community Atmospheric Model coupled to the Community Land Model. These coupled model components are operatedmore » in both a free-running mode and in a controlled configuration, where the atmospheric and land states are reinitialized daily, so that they do not drift very far from observations. Although the controlled simulation deviates less from the observed surface climate than its free-running counterpart, the terrestrial LAC in both configurations is much stronger and displays less spatial variability than the SGP observational estimates. Preliminary investigation of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) substituted for soil moisture suggests that the overly strong coupling between model soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables is associated with too much evaporation from bare ground and too little from the vegetation cover. Lastly, these results imply that model surface characteristics such as LAI, as well as the physical parameterizations involved in the coupling of the land and atmospheric components, are likely to be important sources of the problematical LAC behaviors.« less

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Climate Model Simulations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Thomas J.; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi -Yen; ...

2017-10-13

Several independent measurements of warm-season soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables recorded at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) research facility are used to estimate the terrestrial component of land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) strength and its regional uncertainty. The observations reveal substantial variation in coupling strength, as estimated from three soil moisture measurements at a single site, as well as across six other sites having varied soil and land cover types. The observational estimates then serve as references for evaluating SGP terrestrial coupling strength in the Community Atmospheric Model coupled to the Community Land Model. These coupled model components are operatedmore » in both a free-running mode and in a controlled configuration, where the atmospheric and land states are reinitialized daily, so that they do not drift very far from observations. Although the controlled simulation deviates less from the observed surface climate than its free-running counterpart, the terrestrial LAC in both configurations is much stronger and displays less spatial variability than the SGP observational estimates. Preliminary investigation of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) substituted for soil moisture suggests that the overly strong coupling between model soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables is associated with too much evaporation from bare ground and too little from the vegetation cover. Lastly, these results imply that model surface characteristics such as LAI, as well as the physical parameterizations involved in the coupling of the land and atmospheric components, are likely to be important sources of the problematical LAC behaviors.« less

Mindanao Dome variability over the last 160 kyr: Episodic glacial cooling of the West Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolliet, Timothé; Holbourn, Ann; Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Laj, Carlo; Kissel, Catherine; Beaufort, Luc; Kienast, Markus; Andersen, Nils; Garbe-Schönberg, Dieter

2011-02-01

We present sea surface, upper thermocline, and benthic δ18O data, as well as temperature and paleoproductivity proxy data, from the International Marine Global Change Study Program (IMAGES) Core MD06-3067 (6°31‧N, 126°30‧E, 1575 m water depth), located in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean within the flow path of the Mindanao Current. Our records reveal considerable glacial-interglacial and suborbital variability in the Mindanao Dome upwelling over the last 160 kyr. Dome activity generally intensified during glacial intervals resulting in cooler thermocline waters, whereas it substantially declined during interglacials, in particular in the early Holocene and early marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 5e, when upwelling waters did not reach the thermocline. During MIS 3 and MIS 2, enhanced surface productivity together with remarkably low SST and low upper ocean thermal contrast provide evidence for episodic glacial upwelling to the surface, whereas transient surface warming marks periodic collapses of the Mindanao Dome upwelling during Heinrich events. We attribute the high variability during MIS 3 and MIS 2 to changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation state that affected boreal winter monsoonal winds and upper ocean circulation. Glacial upwelling intensified when a strong cyclonic gyre became established, whereas El Niño-like conditions during Heinrich events tended to suppress the cyclonic circulation, reducing Ekman transport. Thus, our findings demonstrate that variations in the Mindanao Dome upwelling are closely linked to the position and intensity of the tropical convection and also reflect far-field influences from the high latitudes.

Determining Boundary Layer Mixing State based on NASA DISCOVER-AQ Airborne Soundings over the Baltimore/Washington Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, G.; Crawford, J. H.; Silverman, M. L.; Anderson, B. E.; Barrick, J. D.; Diskin, G. S.; Fried, A.; Yang, M. M.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Lenschow, D. H.

2012-12-01

The DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) mission conducted its first field deployment in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region during July 2011. The overarching goal is to better understand how remotely-sensed column measurements can be used to diagnose near-surface air quality. To achieve this objective, the DISCOVER-AQ sampling strategy requires extensive probing of the vertical structure of the lower troposphere as it relates to both trace gases and aerosols. This strategy was implemented by using the NASA P-3B aircraft to spiral from 0.3 to ~3 km over 6 MDE (Maryland Department of the Environment) ground monitoring sites. A total of 254 spirals were flown which generated detailed vertical distributions for a large variety of trace gases, aerosol properties, and meteorological variables. This data set allows a detailed assessment of vertical mixing state, which can be estimated by the changes of the measured variables with height within the boundary layer. The data set was further filtered to minimize the influence of the horizontal inhomogeneity. To be presented are cases under different atmospheric stability classes to show the actual observed atmospheric structure and vertical distributions of the aerosols and trace gases which have a wide range of lifetimes.

Nitrate variability in groundwater of North Carolina using monitoring and private well data models.

PubMed

Messier, Kyle P; Kane, Evan; Bolich, Rick; Serre, Marc L

2014-09-16

Nitrate (NO3-) is a widespread contaminant of groundwater and surface water across the United States that has deleterious effects to human and ecological health. This study develops a model for predicting point-level groundwater NO3- at a state scale for monitoring wells and private wells of North Carolina. A land use regression (LUR) model selection procedure is developed for determining nonlinear model explanatory variables when they are known to be correlated. Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is used to integrate the LUR model to create a LUR-BME model of spatial/temporal varying groundwater NO3- concentrations. LUR-BME results in a leave-one-out cross-validation r2 of 0.74 and 0.33 for monitoring and private wells, effectively predicting within spatial covariance ranges. Results show significant differences in the spatial distribution of groundwater NO3- contamination in monitoring versus private wells; high NO3- concentrations in the southeastern plains of North Carolina; and wastewater treatment residuals and swine confined animal feeding operations as local sources of NO3- in monitoring wells. Results are of interest to agencies that regulate drinking water sources or monitor health outcomes from ingestion of drinking water. Lastly, LUR-BME model estimates can be integrated into surface water models for more accurate management of nonpoint sources of nitrogen.

On the Origin of Wind Line Variability in O Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massa, D.; Prinja, R. K.

2015-08-01

We analyze 10 UV time series for five stars that fulfill specific sampling and spectral criteria to constrain the origin of large-scale wind structure in O stars. We argue that excited state lines must arise close to the stellar surface and are an excellent diagnostic complement to resonance lines which, due to radiative transfer effects, rarely show variability at low velocity. Consequently, we splice dynamic spectra of the excited state line N iv λ1718 at low velocity with those of Si iv λ λ 1400 at high velocity in order to examine the temporal evolution of wind line features. These spliced time series reveal that nearly all of the features observed in the time series originate at or very near the stellar surface. Furthermore, we positively identify the observational signature of equatorial corotating interaction regions in two of the five stars and possibly two others. In addition, we see no evidence of features originating further out in the wind. We use our results to confirm the fact that the features seen in dynamic spectra must be huge in order to remain in the line of sight for days, persisting to very large velocity, and that the photospheric footprint of the features must also be quite large, ˜15%-20% of the stellar diameter.

Variable Emittance Electrochromic Devices for Satellite Thermal Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demiryont, Hulya; Shannon, Kenneth C.

2007-01-01

An all-solid-state electrochromic device (ECD) was designed for electronic variable emissivity (VE) control. In this paper, a low weight (5g/m2) electrochromic thermal control device, the EclipseVEECD™, is detailed as a viable thermal control system for spacecraft outer surface temperatures. Discussion includes the technology's performance, satellite applications, and preparations for space based testing. This EclipseVEECD™ system comprises substrate/mirror electrode/active element/IR transparent electrode layers. This system tunes and modulates reflection/emittance from 5 μm to 15 μm region. Average reflectance/emittance modulation of the system from the 400 K to 250 K region is about 75%, while at room temperature (9.5 micron) reflectance/emittance is around 90%. Activation voltage of the EclipseVEECD™ is around ±1 Volt. The EclipseVEECD™ can be used as a smart thermal modulator for the thermal control of satellites and spacecraft by monitoring and adjusting the amount of energy emitted from the outer surfaces. The functionality of the EclipseVEECD™ was successfully demonstrated in vacuum using a multi-purpose heat dissipation/absorption test module, the EclipseHEAT™. The EclipseHEAT™ has been successfully flight checked and integrated onto the United States Naval Alchemy MidSTAR satellite, scheduled to launch December 2006.

Coordinated path following of multiple underacutated marine surface vehicles along one curve.

PubMed

Liu, Lu; Wang, Dan; Peng, Zhouhua

2016-09-01

This paper investigates the coordinated path following problem for a fleet of underactuated marine surface vehicles (MSVs) along one curve. The dedicated control design is divided into two tasks. One is to steer individual underactuated MSV to track the given spatial path, and the other is to force the vehicles dispersed on a parameterized path subject to the constraints of a communication network. Specifically, a robust individual path following controller is developed based on a line-of-sight (LOS) guidance law and a reduced-order extended state observer (ESO). The vehicle sideslip angle due to environmental disturbances can be exactly identified. Then, the vehicle coordination is achieved by a path variable containment approach, under which the path variables are evenly dispersed between two virtual leaders. Another reduced-order ESO is developed to identify the composite disturbance related to the speed of virtual leaders and neighboring vehicles. The proposed coordination design is distributed since the reference speed does not need to be known by all vehicles as a priori. The input-to-state stability of the closed-loop network system is established via cascade theory. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed design method. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of meteorological uncertainties as they apply to the ASCENDS mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snell, H. E.; Zaccheo, S.; Chase, A.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Ott, L. E.; Pawson, S.

2011-12-01

Many environment-oriented remote sensing and modeling applications require precise knowledge of the atmospheric state (temperature, pressure, water vapor, surface pressure, etc.) on a fine spatial grid with a comprehensive understanding of the associated errors. Coincident atmospheric state measurements may be obtained via co-located remote sensing instruments or by extracting these data from ancillary models. The appropriate technique for a given application depends upon the required accuracy. State-of-the-art mesoscale/regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models operate on spatial scales of a few kilometers resolution, and global scale NWP models operate on scales of tens of kilometers. Remote sensing measurements may be made on spatial scale comparable to the measurement of interest. These measurements normally require a separate sensor, which increases the overall size, weight, power and complexity of the satellite payload. Thus, a comprehensive understanding of the errors associated with each of these approaches is a critical part of the design/characterization of a remote-sensing system whose measurement accuracy depends on knowledge of the atmospheric state. One of the requirements as part of the overall ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons) mission development is to develop a consistent set of atmospheric state variables (vertical temperature and water vapor profiles, and surface pressure) for use in helping to constrain overall retrieval error budget. If the error budget requires tighter uncertainties on ancillary atmospheric parameters than can be provided by NWP models and analyses, additional sensors may be required to reduce the overall measurement error and meet mission requirements. To this end we have used NWP models and reanalysis information to generate a set of atmospheric profiles which contain reasonable variability. This data consists of a "truth" set and a companion "measured" set of profiles. The truth set contains climatologically-relevant profiles of pressure, temperature and humidity with an accompanying surface pressure. The measured set consists of some number of instances of the truth set which have been perturbed to represent realistic measurement uncertainty for the truth profile using measurement error covariance matrices. The primary focus has been to develop matrices derived using information about the profile retrieval accuracy as documented for on-orbit sensor systems including AIRS, AMSU, ATMS, and CrIS. Surface pressure variability and uncertainty was derived from globally-compiled station pressure information. We generated an additional measurement set of profiles which represent the overall error within NWP models. These profile sets will allow for comprehensive trade studies for sensor system design and provide a basis for setting measurement requirements for co-located temperature, humidity sounders, determine the utility of NWP data to either replace or supplement collocated measurements, and to assess the overall end-to-end system performance of the sensor system. In this presentation we discuss the process by which we created these data sets and show their utility in performing trade studies for sensor system concepts and designs.

Study of sulfur bonding on gallium arsenide (100) surfaces using supercritical fluid extraction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cabauy, P.; Darici, Y.; Furton, K.G.

1995-12-01

In the last decades Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) has been considered the semiconductor that will replace silicon because of its direct band gap and high electron mobility. Problems with GaAs Fermi level pinning has halted its widespread use in the electronics industry. The formation of oxides on GaAs results in a high density of surface states that effectively pin the surface Fermi level at the midgap. Studies on sulfur passivation have eliminated oxidation and virtually unpinned the Fermi level on the GaAs surface. This has given rise to interest in sulfur-GaAs bonds. In this presentation, we will discuss the types ofmore » sulfur bonds extracted from a sulfur passivated GaAs (100) using Supercritical Fluid (CO2) Extraction (SFE). SFE can be a valuable tool in the study of chemical speciations on semiconductor surfaces. The variables evaluated to effectively study the sulfur species from the GaAs surface include passivation techniques, supercritical fluid temperatures, densities, and extraction times.« less

Tailored optical vector fields for ultrashort-pulse laser induced complex surface plasmon structuring.

PubMed

Ouyang, J; Perrie, W; Allegre, O J; Heil, T; Jin, Y; Fearon, E; Eckford, D; Edwardson, S P; Dearden, G

2015-05-18

Precise tailoring of optical vector beams is demonstrated, shaping their focal electric fields and used to create complex laser micro-patterning on a metal surface. A Spatial Light Modulator (SLM) and a micro-structured S-waveplate were integrated with a picosecond laser system and employed to structure the vector fields into radial and azimuthal polarizations with and without a vortex phase wavefront as well as superposition states. Imprinting Laser Induced Periodic Surface Structures (LIPSS) elucidates the detailed vector fields around the focal region. In addition to clear azimuthal and radial plasmon surface structures, unique, variable logarithmic spiral micro-structures with a pitch Λ ∼1μm, not observed previously, were imprinted on the surface, confirming unambiguously the complex 2D focal electric fields. We show clearly also how the Orbital Angular Momentum(OAM) associated with a helical wavefront induces rotation of vector fields along the optic axis of a focusing lens and confirmed by the observed surface micro-structures.

A new approach to the problem of bulk-mediated surface diffusion.

PubMed

Berezhkovskii, Alexander M; Dagdug, Leonardo; Bezrukov, Sergey M

2015-08-28

This paper is devoted to bulk-mediated surface diffusion of a particle which can diffuse both on a flat surface and in the bulk layer above the surface. It is assumed that the particle is on the surface initially (at t = 0) and at time t, while in between it may escape from the surface and come back any number of times. We propose a new approach to the problem, which reduces its solution to that of a two-state problem of the particle transitions between the surface and the bulk layer, focusing on the cumulative residence times spent by the particle in the two states. These times are random variables, the sum of which is equal to the total observation time t. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for a simple exact analytical solution for the double Laplace transform of the conditional probability density of the cumulative residence time spent on the surface by the particle observed for time t. This solution is used to find the Laplace transform of the particle mean square displacement and to analyze the peculiarities of its time behavior over the entire range of time. We also establish a relation between the double Laplace transform of the conditional probability density and the Fourier-Laplace transform of the particle propagator over the surface. The proposed approach treats the cases of both finite and infinite bulk layer thicknesses (where bulk-mediated surface diffusion is normal and anomalous at asymptotically long times, respectively) on equal footing.

Study of Fresh and Hardening Process Properties of Gypsum with Three Different PCM Inclusion Methods

PubMed Central

Serrano, Susana; Barreneche, Camila; Navarro, Antonia; Haurie, Laia; Fernandez, A. Inés; Cabeza, Luisa F.

2015-01-01

Gypsum has two important states (fresh and hardened states), and the addition of phase change materials (PCM) can vary the properties of the material. Many authors have extensively studied properties in the hardened state; however, the variation of fresh state properties due to the addition of Micronal® DS 5001 X PCM into gypsum has been the object of few investigations. Properties in fresh state define the workability, setting time, adherence and shrinkage, and, therefore the possibility of implementing the material in building walls. The aim of the study is to analyze, compare and evaluate the variability of fresh state properties after the inclusion of 10% PCM. PCM are added into a common gypsum matrix by three different methods: adding microencapsulated PCM, making a suspension of PCM/water, and incorporating PCM through a vacuum impregnation method. Results demonstrate that the inclusion of PCM change completely the water required by the gypsum to achieve good workability, especially the formulation containing Micronal® DS 5001 X: the water required is higher, the retraction is lower (50% less) due to the organic nature of the PCM with high elasticity and, the adherence is reduced (up to 45%) due to the difference between the porosity of the different surfaces as well as the surface tension difference. PMID:28793584

Climate variability modulates western US ozone air quality in spring via deep stratospheric intrusions

PubMed Central

Lin, Meiyun; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Langford, Andrew O.; Oltmans, Samuel J.; Tarasick, David; Rieder, Harald E.

2015-01-01

Evidence suggests deep stratospheric intrusions can elevate western US surface ozone to unhealthy levels during spring. These intrusions can be classified as ‘exceptional events', which are not counted towards non-attainment determinations. Understanding the factors driving the year-to-year variability of these intrusions is thus relevant for effective implementation of the US ozone air quality standard. Here we use observations and model simulations to link these events to modes of climate variability. We show more frequent late spring stratospheric intrusions when the polar jet meanders towards the western United States, such as occurs following strong La Niña winters (Niño3.4<−1.0 °C). While El Niño leads to enhancements of upper tropospheric ozone, we find this influence does not reach surface air. Fewer and weaker intrusion events follow in the two springs after the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The linkage between La Niña and western US stratospheric intrusions can be exploited to provide a few months of lead time during which preparations could be made to deploy targeted measurements aimed at identifying these exceptional events. PMID:25964012

A Response Surface Methodology for Bi-Level Integrated System Synthesis (BLISS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altus, Troy David; Sobieski, Jaroslaw (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The report describes a new method for optimization of engineering systems such as aerospace vehicles whose design must harmonize a number of subsystems and various physical phenomena, each represented by a separate computer code, e.g., aerodynamics, structures, propulsion, performance, etc. To represent the system internal couplings, the codes receive output from other codes as part of their inputs. The system analysis and optimization task is decomposed into subtasks that can be executed concurrently, each subtask conducted using local state and design variables and holding constant a set of the system-level design variables. The subtasks results are stored in form of the Response Surfaces (RS) fitted in the space of the system-level variables to be used as the subtask surrogates in a system-level optimization whose purpose is to optimize the system objective(s) and to reconcile the system internal couplings. By virtue of decomposition and execution concurrency, the method enables a broad workfront in organization of an engineering project involving a number of specialty groups that might be geographically dispersed, and it exploits the contemporary computing technology of massively concurrent and distributed processing. The report includes a demonstration test case of supersonic business jet design.

The Shallow-to-Deep Transition in Convective Clouds During GoAmazon 2014/5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, M. P.; Gostic, C.; Giangrande, S. E.; Mechem, D. B.; Ghate, V. P.; Toto, T.

2016-12-01

Nearly two years of observations from the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) deployed at Manacapuru, Brazil during the GOAmazon 2014/5 campaign are analyzed to investigate the environmental conditions controlling the transition from shallow to deep convective clouds. The Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) product, which combines radar and lidar observations to produce best estimates of cloud locations in the vertical column is used to qualitatively define four subsets of convective cloud conditions: 1,2) Transition cases (wet season, dry season), where a period of shallow convective clouds is followed by a period of deep convective clouds and 2) Non-transition cases (wet season, dry season), where shallow convective clouds persist without any subsequent development. For these subsets, observations of the time varying thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere, including the surface heat and radiative fluxes, the profiles of atmospheric state variables, and the ECMWF-derived large-scale advective tendencies, are composited to define averaged properties for each transition state. Initial analysis indicates that the transition state strongly depends on the pre-dawn free-tropospheric humidity, the convective inhibition and surface temperature and humidity with little dependence on the convective available potential energy and surface heat fluxes. The composited environmental thermodynamics are then used to force large-eddy simulations for the four transition states to further evaluate the sensitivity of the transition to the composite thermodynamics versus the importance of larger-scale forcing.

How potentially predictable are midlatitude ocean currents?

PubMed Central

Nonaka, Masami; Sasai, Yoshikazu; Sasaki, Hideharu; Taguchi, Bunmei; Nakamura, Hisashi

2016-01-01

Predictability of atmospheric variability is known to be limited owing to significant uncertainty that arises from intrinsic variability generated independently of external forcing and/or boundary conditions. Observed atmospheric variability is therefore regarded as just a single realization among different dynamical states that could occur. In contrast, subject to wind, thermal and fresh-water forcing at the surface, the ocean circulation has been considered to be rather deterministic under the prescribed atmospheric forcing, and it still remains unknown how uncertain the upper-ocean circulation variability is. This study evaluates how much uncertainty the oceanic interannual variability can potentially have, through multiple simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model driven by the observed interannually-varying atmospheric forcing under slightly different conditions. These ensemble “hindcast” experiments have revealed substantial uncertainty due to intrinsic variability in the extratropical ocean circulation that limits potential predictability of its interannual variability, especially along the strong western boundary currents (WBCs) in mid-latitudes, including the Kuroshio and its eastward extention. The intrinsic variability also greatly limits potential predictability of meso-scale oceanic eddy activity. These findings suggest that multi-member ensemble simulations are essential for understanding and predicting variability in the WBCs, which are important for weather and climate variability and marine ecosystems. PMID:26831954

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-01

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

PubMed

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-15

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Vocalization characteristics of North Atlantic right whale surface active groups in the calving habitat, southeastern United States.

PubMed

Trygonis, Vasilis; Gerstein, Edmund; Moir, Jim; McCulloch, Stephen

2013-12-01

Passive acoustic surveys were conducted to assess the vocal behavior of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) in the designated critical calving habitat along the shallow coastal waters of southeastern United States. Underwater vocalizations were recorded using autonomous buoys deployed in close proximity to surface active groups (SAGs). Nine main vocalization types were identified with manual inspection of spectrograms, and standard acoustic descriptors were extracted. Classification trees were used to examine the distinguishing characteristics of calls and quantify their variability within the SAG vocal repertoire. The results show that descriptors of frequency, bandwidth, and spectral disorder are the most important parameters for partitioning the SAG repertoire, contrary to duration-related measures. The reported source levels and vocalization statistics provide sound production data vital to inform regional passive acoustic monitoring and conservation for this endangered species.

Network-scale dynamics of sediment mixtures: how do tectonics affect surface bed texture and channel slope?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparini, N. M.; Bras, R. L.; Tucker, G. E.

2003-04-01

An alluvial channel's slope and bed texture are intimately linked. Along with fluvial discharge, these variables are the key players in setting alluvial transport rates. We know that both channel slope and mean grain size usually decrease downstream, but how sensitive are these variables to tectonic changes? Are basin concavity and downstream fining drastically disrupted during transitions from one tectonic regime to another? We explore these questions using the CHILD numerical landscape evolution model to generate alluvial networks composed of a sand and gravel mixture. The steady-state and transient patterns of both channel slope and sediment texture are investigated. The steady-state patterns in slope and sediment texture are verified independently by solving the erosion equations under equilibrium conditions, i.e. the case when the erosion rate is equal to the uplift rate across the entire landscape. The inclusion of surface texture as a free parameter (as opposed to just channel slope) leads to some surprising results. In all cases, an increase in uplift rate results in channel beds which are finer at equilibrium (for a given drainage area). Higher uplift rates imply larger equilibrium transport rates; this leads to finer channels that have a smaller critical shear stress to entrain material, and therefore more material can be transported for a given discharge (and channel slope). Changes in equilibrium slopes are less intuitive. An increase in uplift rates can cause channel slopes to increase, remain the same, or decrease, depending on model parameter values. In the surprising case in which equilibrium channel slopes decrease with increasing uplift rates, we suggest that surface texture changes more than compensate for the required increase in transport rates, causing channel slopes to decrease. These results highlight the important role of sediment grain size in determining transport rates and caution us against ignoring this important variable in fluvial networks.

A modulating effect of Tropical Instability Wave (TIW)-induced surface wind feedback in a hybrid coupled model of the tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong-Hua

2016-10-01

Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two air-sea coupling phenomena that are prominent in the tropical Pacific, occurring at vastly different space-time scales. It has been challenging to adequately represent both of these processes within a large-scale coupled climate model, which has led to a poor understanding of the interactions between TIW-induced feedback and ENSO. In this study, a novel modeling system was developed that allows representation of TIW-scale air-sea coupling and its interaction with ENSO. Satellite data were first used to derive an empirical model for TIW-induced sea surface wind stress perturbations (τTIW). The model was then embedded in a basin-wide hybrid-coupled model (HCM) of the tropical Pacific. Because τTIW were internally determined from TIW-scale sea surface temperatures (SSTTIW) simulated in the ocean model, the wind-SST coupling at TIW scales was interactively represented within the large-scale coupled model. Because the τTIW-SSTTIW coupling part of the model can be turned on or off in the HCM simulations, the related TIW wind feedback effects can be isolated and examined in a straightforward way. Then, the TIW-scale wind feedback effects on the large-scale mean ocean state and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific were investigated based on this embedded system. The interactively represented TIW-scale wind forcing exerted an asymmetric influence on SSTs in the HCM, characterized by a mean-state cooling and by a positive feedback on interannual variability, acting to enhance ENSO amplitude. Roughly speaking, the feedback tends to increase interannual SST variability by approximately 9%. Additionally, there is a tendency for TIW wind to have an effect on the phase transition during ENSO evolution, with slightly shortened interannual oscillation periods. Additional sensitivity experiments were performed to elucidate the details of TIW wind effects on SST evolution during ENSO cycles.

Microplastic sampling with the AVANI trawl compared to two neuston trawls in the Bay of Bengal and South Pacific.

PubMed

Eriksen, Marcus; Liboiron, Max; Kiessling, Tim; Charron, Louis; Alling, Abigail; Lebreton, Laurent; Richards, Heather; Roth, Barent; Ory, Nicolas C; Hidalgo-Ruz, Valeria; Meerhoff, Erika; Box, Carolynn; Cummins, Anna; Thiel, Martin

2018-01-01

Many typical neuston trawls can only be used during relatively calm sea states and slow tow speeds. During two expeditions to the Bay of Bengal and the eastern South Pacific we investigated whether the new, high-speed AVANI trawl (All-purpose Velocity Accelerated Net Instrument) collects similar amounts and types of microplastics as two established scientific trawl designs, the manta trawl and the DiSalvo neuston net. Using a 335 μm net, the AVANI trawl can collect microplastics from the sea surface at speeds up to 8 knots as it "skis" across the surface, whereas the manta and DiSalvo neuston trawls must be towed slowly in a less turbulent sea state and often represent shorter tow lengths. Generally, the AVANI trawl collected a greater numerical abundance and weight of plastic particles in most size classes and debris types than the manta trawl and DiSalvo neuston net, likely because these trawls only skim the surface layer while the AVANI trawl, moving vertically in a random fashion, collects a "deeper" sample, capturing the few plastics that float slightly lower in the water column. However, the samples did not differ enough that results were significantly affected, suggesting that studies done with these different trawls are comparable. The advantage of the AVANI trawl over traditional research trawls is that it allows for collection on vessels underway at high speeds and during long transits, allowing for a nearly continuous sampling effort over long distances. As local surface currents make sea surface abundance widely heterogeneous, widely spaced short-tow trawls, such as the manta and DiSalvo trawls, can catch or miss hotspots or meso-scale variability of microplastic accumulations, whereas the AVANI trawl, if utilized for back-to-back tows of intermediate distances (5-10 km), can bridge variable wind conditions and debris concentrations potentially reducing variance and provide a greater resolution of spatial distribution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

A new CM SAF Solar Surface Radiation Climate Data Set derived from Meteosat Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trentmann, J.; Mueller, R. W.; Pfeifroth, U.; Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Cremer, R.

2014-12-01

The incoming surface solar radiation has been defined as an essential climate variable by GCOS. It is mandatory to monitor this part of the earth's energy balance, and thus gain insights on the state and variability of the climate system. In addition, data sets of the surface solar radiation have received increased attention over the recent years as an important source of information for the planning of solar energy applications. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is deriving surface solar radiation from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite instruments. While CM SAF is focusing on the generation of high-quality long-term climate data records, also operationally data is provided in short time latency within 8 weeks. Here we present SARAH (Solar Surface Radiation Dataset - Heliosat), i.e. the new CM SAF Solar Surface Radiation data set based on Meteosat satellite observations. SARAH provides instantaneous, daily- and monthly-averaged data of the effective cloud albedo (CAL), the direct normalized solar radiation (DNI) and the solar irradiance (SIS) from 1983 to 2013 for the full view of the Meteosat satellite (i.e, Europe, Africa, parts of South America, and the Atlantic ocean). The data sets are generated with a high spatial resolution of 0.05 deg allowing for detailed regional studies, and are available in netcdf-format at no cost without restrictions at www.cmsaf.eu. We provide an overview of the data sets, including a validation against reference measurements from the BSRN and GEBA surface station networks.

Mechanics of deformations in terms of scalar variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryabov, Valeriy A.

2017-05-01

Theory of particle and continuous mechanics is developed which allows a treatment of pure deformation in terms of the set of variables "coordinate-momentum-force" instead of the standard treatment in terms of tensor-valued variables "strain-stress." This approach is quite natural for a microscopic description of atomic system, according to which only pointwise forces caused by the stress act to atoms making a body deform. The new concept starts from affine transformation of spatial to material coordinates in terms of the stretch tensor or its analogs. Thus, three principal stretches and three angles related to their orientation form a set of six scalar variables to describe deformation. Instead of volume-dependent potential used in the standard theory, which requires conditions of equilibrium for surface and body forces acting to a volume element, a potential dependent on scalar variables is introduced. A consistent introduction of generalized force associated with this potential becomes possible if a deformed body is considered to be confined on the surface of torus having six genuine dimensions. Strain, constitutive equations and other fundamental laws of the continuum and particle mechanics may be neatly rewritten in terms of scalar variables. Giving a new presentation for finite deformation new approach provides a full treatment of hyperelasticity including anisotropic case. Derived equations of motion generate a new kind of thermodynamical ensemble in terms of constant tension forces. In this ensemble, six internal deformation forces proportional to the components of Irving-Kirkwood stress are controlled by applied external forces. In thermodynamical limit, instead of the pressure and volume as state variables, this ensemble employs deformation force measured in kelvin unit and stretch ratio.

The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mougin, E.; Hiernaux, P.; Kergoat, L.; Grippa, M.; de Rosnay, P.; Timouk, F.; Le Dantec, V.; Demarez, V.; Lavenu, F.; Arjounin, M.; Lebel, T.; Soumaguel, N.; Ceschia, E.; Mougenot, B.; Baup, F.; Frappart, F.; Frison, P. L.; Gardelle, J.; Gruhier, C.; Jarlan, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Sanou, B.; Tracol, Y.; Guichard, F.; Trichon, V.; Diarra, L.; Soumaré, A.; Koité, M.; Dembélé, F.; Lloyd, C.; Hanan, N. P.; Damesin, C.; Delon, C.; Serça, D.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Seghieri, J.; Becerra, S.; Dia, H.; Gangneron, F.; Mazzega, P.

2009-08-01

SummaryThe Gourma site in Mali is one of the three instrumented meso-scale sites deployed in West-Africa as part of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Located both in the Sahelian zone sensu stricto, and in the Saharo-Sahelian transition zone, the Gourma meso-scale window is the northernmost site of the AMMA-CATCH observatory reached by the West African Monsoon. The experimental strategy includes deployment of a variety of instruments, from local to meso-scale, dedicated to monitoring and documentation of the major variables characterizing the climate forcing, and the spatio-temporal variability of surface processes and state variables such as vegetation mass, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture and surface fluxes. This paper describes the Gourma site, its associated instrumental network and the research activities that have been carried out since 1984. In the AMMA project, emphasis is put on the relations between climate, vegetation and surface fluxes. However, the Gourma site is also important for development and validation of satellite products, mainly due to the existence of large and relatively homogeneous surfaces. The social dimension of the water resource uses and governance is also briefly analyzed, relying on field enquiry and interviews. The climate of the Gourma region is semi-arid, daytime air temperatures are always high and annual rainfall amounts exhibit strong inter-annual and seasonal variations. Measurements sites organized along a north-south transect reveal sharp gradients in surface albedo, net radiation, vegetation production, and distribution of plant functional types. However, at any point along the gradient, surface energy budget, soil moisture and vegetation growth contrast between two main types of soil surfaces and hydrologic systems. On the one hand, sandy soils with high water infiltration rates and limited run-off support almost continuous herbaceous vegetation with scattered woody plants. On the other hand, water infiltration is poor on shallow soils, and vegetation is sparse and discontinuous, with more concentrated run-off that ends in pools or low lands within structured endorheic watersheds. Land surface in the Gourma is characterized by rapid response to climate variability, strong intra-seasonal, seasonal and inter-annual variations in vegetation growth, soil moisture and energy balance. Despite the multi-decadal drought, which still persists, ponds and lakes have increased, the grass cover has largely recovered, and there are signs of increased tree cover at least in the low lands.

Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume II. Middle United States: TRY data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.

1984-08-01

The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 22 cities in the continental United States using Test Reference Year (TRY) source weather data. The weather data at each city has been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels ofmore » detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.« less

Estimating the Probability of Elevated Nitrate Concentrations in Ground Water in Washington State

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.

2008-01-01

Logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (manmade) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in ground water in Washington State. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, ground-water recharge rate, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, soil characteristics, hydrogeomorphic regions, and land-use types. Two models were developed: one with and one without the hydrogeomorphic regions variable. The variables in both models that best explained the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations (defined as concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen greater than 2 milligrams per liter) were the percentage of agricultural land use in a 4-kilometer radius of a well, population density, precipitation, soil drainage class, and well depth. Based on the relations between these variables and measured nitrate concentrations, logistic regression models were developed to estimate the probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding 2 milligrams per liter. Maps of Washington State were produced that illustrate these estimated probabilities for wells drilled to 145 feet below land surface (median well depth) and the estimated depth to which wells would need to be drilled to have a 90-percent probability of drawing water with a nitrate concentration less than 2 milligrams per liter. Maps showing the estimated probability of elevated nitrate concentrations indicated that the agricultural regions are most at risk followed by urban areas. The estimated depths to which wells would need to be drilled to have a 90-percent probability of obtaining water with nitrate concentrations less than 2 milligrams per liter exceeded 1,000 feet in the agricultural regions; whereas, wells in urban areas generally would need to be drilled to depths in excess of 400 feet.

Investigations of surface related electronic properties in SmB6 and LaAlO3/SrTiO3 heterostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, Sanjay

This dissertation reports research performed on two types of two-dimensional. systems: SmB6 and LaAlO3/SrTiO3 (LAO/STO). SmB6 has been proposed to be. a topological Kondo insulator at low temperature. In order to understand carriers/. lattice dynamics and their interactions, femtosecond pump-probe spectroscopy. is performed in SmB6 single crystals and thin lms at variable temperatures. The. collective oscillation modes in GHz - THz and the change of carrier relaxations is. observed as a function of temperature. From the temperature dependent results. f 􀀀?d hybridization, opening of the hybridization gap, phonon bottleneck", and th. possible topological surface state formation is revealed. The topological surface state. should support helical Dirac dispersion with momentum-spin lockage. This dissertation. reports on current injection in SmB6 thin lm with circularly polarized light. at oblique incidence. This spin polarized photocurrent is concluded to be a direct. result of spin momentum lockage in SmB6. LAO/STO interface shows 2-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) at the interface. when the thickness of LAO is more than 3 unit cell. Carrier properties at the. LAO/STO interfaces are highly sensitive to the top surface termination of LAO. The spontaneous dissociation of water on LAO surface is systematically studied by. density functional theory and experimental surface characterizations. Extrinsic effects. from surface adsorbates were often ignored in the previous studies of the 2DEG. From the experiments, it is found that the dissociated water molecules, especially the. surface protons, strongly aect the interface density of states, electron distributions. and lattice distortions. The investigations also reveal the importance of additional. molecular water layers. These additional water layers, through hydrogen bonds, provide. an energetically feasible pathway for manipulating the surface-bonded protons. and thus, the interface electrical characteristics.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea.

PubMed

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992-2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability.

Status of vulnerable Cystoseira populations along the Italian infralittoral fringe, and relationships with environmental and anthropogenic variables.

PubMed

Mancuso, F P; Strain, E M A; Piccioni, E; De Clerck, O; Sarà, G; Airoldi, L

2018-04-01

We analyzed the occurrence and status of infralittoral fringe populations of Cystoseira spp. (Fucales) at thirteen rocky sites around the Italian coastline, and explored the relationships with relevant environmental and anthropogenic variables. We found Cystoseira populations at 11 sites: most were scattered and comprised monospecific stands of C. compressa, and only 6 sites also supported sparse specimens of either C. amentacea var. stricta or C. brachycarpa. Coastal human population density, Chlorophyll a seawater concentrations, sea surface temperature, annual range of sea surface temperature and wave fetch explained most of the variation of the status of C. compressa. We hypothesize a generally unhealthy state of the Italian Cystoseira infralittoral fringe populations and identify multiple co-occurring anthropogenic stressors as the likely drivers of these poor conditions. Extensive baseline monitoring is needed to describe how Cystoseira populations are changing, and implement a management framework for the conservation of these valuable but vulnerable habitats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

The 1D Richards' equation in two layered soils: a Filippov approach to treat discontinuities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berardi, Marco; Difonzo, Fabio; Vurro, Michele; Lopez, Luciano

2018-05-01

The infiltration process into the soil is generally modeled by the Richards' partial differential equation (PDE). In this paper a new approach for modeling the infiltration process through the interface of two different soils is proposed, where the interface is seen as a discontinuity surface defined by suitable state variables. Thus, the original 1D Richards' PDE, enriched by a particular choice of the boundary conditions, is first approximated by means of a time semidiscretization, that is by means of the transversal method of lines (TMOL). In such a way a sequence of discontinuous initial value problems, described by a sequence of second order differential systems in the space variable, is derived. Then, Filippov theory on discontinuous dynamical systems may be applied in order to study the relevant dynamics of the problem. The numerical integration of the semidiscretized differential system will be performed by using a one-step method, which employs an event driven procedure to locate the discontinuity surface and to adequately change the vector field.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992–2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability. PMID:25977803

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

2016-06-02

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Parametric Study of Variable Emissivity Radiator Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grob, Lisa M.; Swanson, Theodore D.

2000-01-01

The goal of spacecraft thermal design is to accommodate a high function satellite in a low weight and real estate package. The extreme environments that the satellite is exposed during its orbit are handled using passive and active control techniques. Heritage passive heat rejection designs are sized for the hot conditions and augmented for the cold end with heaters. The active heat rejection designs to date are heavy, expensive and/or complex. Incorporating an active radiator into the design that is lighter, cheaper and more simplistic will allow designers to meet the previously stated goal of thermal spacecraft design Varying the radiator's surface properties without changing the radiating area (as with VCHP), or changing the radiators' views (traditional louvers) is the objective of the variable emissivity (vary-e) radiator technologies. A parametric evaluation of the thermal performance of three such technologies is documented in this paper. Comparisons of the Micro-Electromechanical Systems (MEMS), Electrochromics, and Electrophoretics radiators to conventional radiators, both passive and active are quantified herein. With some noted limitations, the vary-e radiator surfaces provide significant advantages over traditional radiators and a promising alternative design technique for future spacecraft thermal systems.

Estimation and correction of different flavors of surface observation biases in ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Hacker, Josua P.; Collins, Nancy; Lee, Jared A.

2017-04-01

The impact of assimilating surface observations has been shown in several publications, for improving weather prediction inside of the boundary layer as well as the flow aloft. However, the assimilation of surface observations is often far from optimal due to the presence of both model and observation biases. The sources of these biases can be diverse: an instrumental offset, errors associated to the comparison of point-based observations and grid-cell average, etc. To overcome this challenge, a method was developed using the ensemble Kalman filter. The approach consists on representing each observation bias as a parameter. These bias parameters are added to the forward operator and they extend the state vector. As opposed to the observation bias estimation approaches most common in operational systems (e.g. for satellite radiances), the state vector and parameters are simultaneously updated by applying the Kalman filter equations to the augmented state. The method to estimate and correct the observation bias is evaluated using observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. OSSEs are constructed for the conventional observation network including radiosondes, aircraft observations, atmospheric motion vectors, and surface observations. Three different kinds of biases are added to 2-meter temperature for synthetic METARs. From the simplest to more sophisticated, imposed biases are: (1) a spatially invariant bias, (2) a spatially varying bias proportional to topographic height differences between the model and the observations, and (3) bias that is proportional to the temperature. The target region characterized by complex terrain is the western U.S. on a domain with 30-km grid spacing. Observations are assimilated every 3 hours using an 80-member ensemble during September 2012. Results demonstrate that the approach is able to estimate and correct the bias when it is spatially invariant (experiment 1). More complex bias structure in experiments (2) and (3) are more difficult to estimate, but still possible. Estimated the parameter in experiments with unbiased observations results in spatial and temporal parameter variability about zero, and establishes a threshold on the accuracy of the parameter in further experiments. When the observations are biased, the mean parameter value is close to the true bias, but temporal and spatial variability in the parameter estimates is similar to the parameters used when estimating a zero bias in the observations. The distributions are related to other errors in the forecasts, indicating that the parameters are absorbing some of the forecast error from other sources. In this presentation we elucidate the reasons for the resulting parameter estimates, and their variability.

Directional radiance measurements: Challenges in the sampling of landscapes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deering, D. W.

1994-01-01

Most earth surfaces, particularly those supporting natural vegetation ecosystems, constitute structurally and spectrally complex surfaces that are distinctly non-Lambertian reflectors. Obtaining meaningful measurements of the directional radiances of landscapes and obtaining estimates of the complete bidirectional reflectance distribution functions of ground targets with complex and variable landscape and radiometric features are challenging tasks. Reasons for the increased interest in directional radiance measurements are presented, and the issues that must be addressed when trying to acquire directional radiances for vegetated land surfaces from different types of remote sensing platforms are discussed. Priority research emphases are suggested, concerning field measurements of directional surface radiances and reflectances for future research. Primarily, emphasis must be given to the acquisition of more complete and directly associated radiometric and biometric parameter data sets that will empower the exploitation of the 'angular dimension' in remote sensing of vegetation through enabling the further development and rigorous validation of state of the art plant canopy models.

Mesoscale Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze Using the PLACE Land Surface Model Coupled to a 1.5-Order Turbulence Parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynn, Barry H.; Stauffer, David R.; Wetzel, Peter J.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Perlin, Natal; Baker, R. David; Munoz, Ricardo; Boone, Aaron; Jia, Yiqin

1999-01-01

A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Impacts of sea-surface salinity in an eddy-resolving semi-global OGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furue, Ryo; Takatama, Kohei; Sasaki, Hideharu; Schneider, Niklas; Nonaka, Masami; Taguchi, Bunmei

2018-02-01

To explore the impacts of sea-surface salinity (SSS) on the interannual variability of upper-ocean state, we compare two 10-year runs of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM): in one, SSS is strongly restored toward a monthly climatology (World Ocean Atlas '98) and in the other, toward the SSS of a monthly gridded Argo product. The inclusion of the Argo SSS generally improves the interannual variability of the mixed layer depth; particularly so in the western tropical Pacific, where so-called "barrier layers" are reproduced when the Argo SSS is included. The upper-ocean subsurface salinity variability is also improved in the tropics and subtropics even below the mixed layer. To understand the reason for the latter improvement, we separate the salinity difference between the two runs into its "dynamical" and "spiciness" components. The dynamical component is dominated by small-scale noise due to the chaotic nature of mesoscale eddies. The spiciness difference indicates that as expected from the upper-ocean general circulation, SSS variability in the mixed layer is subducted into the thermocline in subtropics; this signal is generally advected downward, equatorward, and westward in the equator-side of the subtropical gyre. The SSS signal subducted in the subtropical North Pacific appears to enter the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Throughflow, although this signal is weak and probably insignificant in our model.

HEATING 7. 1 user's manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Childs, K.W.

1991-07-01

HEATING is a FORTRAN program designed to solve steady-state and/or transient heat conduction problems in one-, two-, or three- dimensional Cartesian, cylindrical, or spherical coordinates. A model may include multiple materials, and the thermal conductivity, density, and specific heat of each material may be both time- and temperature-dependent. The thermal conductivity may be anisotropic. Materials may undergo change of phase. Thermal properties of materials may be input or may be extracted from a material properties library. Heating generation rates may be dependent on time, temperature, and position, and boundary temperatures may be time- and position-dependent. The boundary conditions, which maymore » be surface-to-boundary or surface-to-surface, may be specified temperatures or any combination of prescribed heat flux, forced convection, natural convection, and radiation. The boundary condition parameters may be time- and/or temperature-dependent. General graybody radiation problems may be modeled with user-defined factors for radiant exchange. The mesh spacing may be variable along each axis. HEATING is variably dimensioned and utilizes free-form input. Three steady-state solution techniques are available: point-successive-overrelaxation iterative method with extrapolation, direct-solution (for one-dimensional or two-dimensional problems), and conjugate gradient. Transient problems may be solved using one of several finite-difference schemes: Crank-Nicolson implicit, Classical Implicit Procedure (CIP), Classical Explicit Procedure (CEP), or Levy explicit method (which for some circumstances allows a time step greater than the CEP stability criterion). The solution of the system of equations arising from the implicit techniques is accomplished by point-successive-overrelaxation iteration and includes procedures to estimate the optimum acceleration parameter.« less

Using MERRA, AMIP II, CMIP5 Outputs to Assess Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, P. W.; Westberg, D. J.; Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Zhang, T.

2014-12-01

In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Thus, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is paramount to reducing energy costs and emissions. Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climates zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE (formerly known as the American Society of Hearting, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers). A significant shortcoming of the methodology used in constructing such maps is the use of surface observations (located mainly near airports) that are unequally distributed and frequently have periods of missing data that need to be filled by various approximation schemes. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the ASHRAE climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones. These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and some tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones that require longer time series to confirm. Using the uncertainties of the basic surface temperature and precipitation parameters from MERRA as determined by comparison to surface measurements, we first compare patterns and variability of ASHRAE climate zones from MERRA relative to present day climate model runs from AMIP simulations to establish baseline sensitivity. Based upon these results, we assess the variability of the ASHRAE climate zones according to CMIP runs through 2100 using an ensemble analysis that classifies model output changes by percentiles. Estimates of statistical significance are then compared to original model variability during the AMIP period. This work quantifies and tests for significance the changes seen in the various US regions that represent a potential contribution by NASA to the ongoing National Climate Assessment.

North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Böning, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Cassou, Christophe; Chassignet, Eric; Coward, Andrew C.; Danilov, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Drange, Helge; Farneti, Riccardo; Fernandez, Elodie; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Forget, Gael; Fujii, Yosuke; Griffies, Stephen M.; Gusev, Anatoly; Heimbach, Patrick; Howard, Armando; Ilicak, Mehmet; Jung, Thomas; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Kelley, Maxwell; Large, William G.; Leboissetier, Anthony; Lu, Jianhua; Madec, Gurvan; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Nurser, A. J. George; Pirani, Anna; Romanou, Anastasia; Salas y Mélia, David; Samuels, Bonita L.; Scheinert, Markus; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Sun, Shan; Treguier, Anne-Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valcke, Sophie; Voldoire, Aurore; Wang, Qiang; Yashayaev, Igor

2016-01-01

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II) . Part II; Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Boening, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra;

Thermocapillary flow and melt/solid interfaces in floating-zone crystal growth under microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lan, C. W.; Kou, Sindo

1990-01-01

Computer simulation of steady-state axisymmetrical heat transfer and fluid flow was conducted to study thermocapillary flow and melt/solid interfaces in floating-zone crystal growth under microgravity. The effects of key variables on the extent of thermocapillary flow in the melt zone, the shapes of melt/solid interfaces and the length of the melt zone were discussed. These variables are: (1) the temperature coefficient of surface tension (or the Marangoni number), (2) the pulling speed (or the Peclet number), (3) the feed rod radius, (4) the ambient temperature distribution, (5) the heat transfer coefficient (or the Biot number), and (6) the thermal diffusivity of the material (or the Prandtl number).

A study of the variable impedance surface concept as a means for reducing noise from jet interaction with deployed lift-augmenting flaps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayden, R. E.; Kadman, Y.; Chanaud, R. C.

1972-01-01

The feasibility of quieting the externally-blown-flap (EBF) noise sources which are due to interaction of jet exhaust flow with deployed flaps was demonstrated on a 1/15-scale 3-flap EBF model. Sound field characteristics were measured and noise reduction fundamentals were reviewed in terms of source models. Test of the 1/15-scale model showed broadband noise reductions of up to 20 dB resulting from combination of variable impedance flap treatment and mesh grids placed in the jet flow upstream of the flaps. Steady-state lift, drag, and pitching moment were measured with and without noise reduction treatment.

Kalman filters for assimilating near-surface observations into the Richards equation - Part 2: A dual filter approach for simultaneous retrieval of states and parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, H.; Romano, N.; Chirico, G. B.

2014-07-01

This study presents a dual Kalman filter (DSUKF - dual standard-unscented Kalman filter) for retrieving states and parameters controlling the soil water dynamics in a homogeneous soil column, by assimilating near-surface state observations. The DSUKF couples a standard Kalman filter for retrieving the states of a linear solver of the Richards equation, and an unscented Kalman filter for retrieving the parameters of the soil hydraulic functions, which are defined according to the van Genuchten-Mualem closed-form model. The accuracy and the computational expense of the DSUKF are compared with those of the dual ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) implemented with a nonlinear solver of the Richards equation. Both the DSUKF and the DEnKF are applied with two alternative state-space formulations of the Richards equation, respectively differentiated by the type of variable employed for representing the states: either the soil water content (θ) or the soil water matric pressure head (h). The comparison analyses are conducted with reference to synthetic time series of the true states, noise corrupted observations, and synthetic time series of the meteorological forcing. The performance of the retrieval algorithms are examined accounting for the effects exerted on the output by the input parameters, the observation depth and assimilation frequency, as well as by the relationship between retrieved states and assimilated variables. The uncertainty of the states retrieved with DSUKF is considerably reduced, for any initial wrong parameterization, with similar accuracy but less computational effort than the DEnKF, when this is implemented with ensembles of 25 members. For ensemble sizes of the same order of those involved in the DSUKF, the DEnKF fails to provide reliable posterior estimates of states and parameters. The retrieval performance of the soil hydraulic parameters is strongly affected by several factors, such as the initial guess of the unknown parameters, the wet or dry range of the retrieved states, the boundary conditions, as well as the form (h-based or θ-based) of the state-space formulation. Several analyses are reported to show that the identifiability of the saturated hydraulic conductivity is hindered by the strong correlation with other parameters of the soil hydraulic functions defined according to the van Genuchten-Mualem closed-form model.

Protein functional landscapes, dynamics, allostery: a tortuous path towards a universal theoretical framework.

PubMed

Zhuravlev, Pavel I; Papoian, Garegin A

2010-08-01

Energy landscape theories have provided a common ground for understanding the protein folding problem, which once seemed to be overwhelmingly complicated. At the same time, the native state was found to be an ensemble of interconverting states with frustration playing a more important role compared to the folding problem. The landscape of the folded protein - the native landscape - is glassier than the folding landscape; hence, a general description analogous to the folding theories is difficult to achieve. On the other hand, the native basin phase volume is much smaller, allowing a protein to fully sample its native energy landscape on the biological timescales. Current computational resources may also be used to perform this sampling for smaller proteins, to build a 'topographical map' of the native landscape that can be used for subsequent analysis. Several major approaches to representing this topographical map are highlighted in this review, including the construction of kinetic networks, hierarchical trees and free energy surfaces with subsequent structural and kinetic analyses. In this review, we extensively discuss the important question of choosing proper collective coordinates characterizing functional motions. In many cases, the substates on the native energy landscape, which represent different functional states, can be used to obtain variables that are well suited for building free energy surfaces and analyzing the protein's functional dynamics. Normal mode analysis can provide such variables in cases where functional motions are dictated by the molecule's architecture. Principal component analysis is a more expensive way of inferring the essential variables from the protein's motions, one that requires a long molecular dynamics simulation. Finally, the two popular models for the allosteric switching mechanism, 'preexisting equilibrium' and 'induced fit', are interpreted within the energy landscape paradigm as extreme points of a continuum of transition mechanisms. Some experimental evidence illustrating each of these two models, as well as intermediate mechanisms, is presented and discussed.

Assessment of radar altimetry correction slopes for marine gravity recovery: A case study of Jason-1 GM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shengjun; Li, Jiancheng; Jin, Taoyong; Che, Defu

2018-04-01

Marine gravity anomaly derived from satellite altimetry can be computed using either sea surface height or sea surface slope measurements. Here we consider the slope method and evaluate the errors in the slope of the corrections supplied with the Jason-1 geodetic mission data. The slope corrections are divided into three groups based on whether they are small, comparable, or large with respect to the 1 microradian error in the current sea surface slope models. (1) The small and thus negligible corrections include dry tropospheric correction, inverted barometer correction, solid earth tide and geocentric pole tide. (2) The moderately important corrections include wet tropospheric correction, dual-frequency ionospheric correction and sea state bias. The radiometer measurements are more preferred than model values in the geophysical data records for constraining wet tropospheric effect owing to the highly variable water-vapor structure in atmosphere. The items of dual-frequency ionospheric correction and sea state bias should better not be directly added to range observations for obtaining sea surface slopes since their inherent errors may cause abnormal sea surface slopes and along-track smoothing with uniform distribution weight in certain width is an effective strategy for avoiding introducing extra noises. The slopes calculated from radiometer wet tropospheric corrections, and along-track smoothed dual-frequency ionospheric corrections, sea state bias are generally within ±0.5 microradians and no larger than 1 microradians. (3) Ocean tide has the largest influence on obtaining sea surface slopes while most of ocean tide slopes distribute within ±3 microradians. Larger ocean tide slopes mostly occur over marginal and island-surrounding seas, and extra tidal models with better precision or with extending process (e.g. Got-e) are strongly recommended for updating corrections in geophysical data records.

Intraseasonal SST-precipitation coupling during the Indian Summer Monsoon, and its modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongaramrungruang, S.; Seo, H.; Ummenhofer, C.

2016-02-01

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a crucial role in shaping the large proportion of the total precipitation over the Indian subcontinent each year. The ISM rainfall exhibits a particularly strong intraseasonal variability, that has profound socioeconomic consequences, such as agricultural planning and flood preparation. However, our understanding of the variability on this time scale is still limited due to sparse data availability in the past. In this study, we used a combination of state-of-the-art high-resolution satellite estimate of rainfall, objectively analyzed surface flux, as well as atmospheric reanalysis product to investigate the nature of the ISM intraseasonal rainfall variability and how it varies year to year. The emphasis is placed on the Bay of Bengal (BoB) where the intraseasonal ocean-atmosphere coupling is most prominent. Results show that the maximum warming of SST leads the onset of heavy precipitation event by 3-5 days, and that surface heat flux and surface wind speed are weak prior to the rain but amplifies and peaks after the rain reaches its maximum. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significantly affects the observed intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship. The pre-convection SST warming is stronger and more pronounced during the negative phase of the IOD, while the signal is weaker and less organized in the positive phase. This is explained by the column-integrated moisture budget analysis which reveals that, during the ISM heavy rainfall in the BoB, there is more moisture interchange in the form of enhanced vertical advection from the ocean to atmosphere in negative IOD years as compared to positive IOD years. Knowing the distinction of ISM variabilities during opposite phases of the IOD will help contribute to a more reliable prediction of ISM activities.

Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, L. Ruby; Ghan, Steven J.

2009-02-01

Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is an important anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and the resulting impact on snowpack and the hydrological cycle in the western United States. A year-long simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine the soot deposition, followed by three simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the surface net solar radiation flux during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, and reduce the snow accumulation and spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow-covered regions. For a doubled snow albedo perturbation, the change to surface energy and temperature is around 50-80%; however, snowpack reduction is nonlinearly accelerated.

Does a Relationship Between Arctic Low Clouds and Sea Ice Matter?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.

2016-01-01

Arctic low clouds strongly affect the Arctic surface energy budget. Through this impact Arctic low clouds influence important aspects of the Arctic climate system, namely surface and atmospheric temperature, sea ice extent and thickness, and atmospheric circulation. Arctic clouds are in turn influenced by these elements of the Arctic climate system, and these interactions create the potential for Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks. To further our understanding of potential Arctic cloudclimate feedbacks, the goal of this paper is to quantify the influence of atmospheric state on the surface cloud radiative effect (CRE) and its covariation with sea ice concentration (SIC). We build on previous research using instantaneous, active remote sensing satellite footprint data from the NASA A-Train. First, the results indicate significant differences in the surface CRE when stratified by atmospheric state. Second, there is a weak covariation between CRE and SIC for most atmospheric conditions. Third, the results show statistically significant differences in the average surface CRE under different SIC values in fall indicating a 3-5 W m(exp -2) larger LW CRE in 0% versus 100% SIC footprints. Because systematic changes on the order of 1 W m(exp -2) are sufficient to explain the observed long-term reductions in sea ice extent, our results indicate a potentially significant amplifying sea ice-cloud feedback, under certain meteorological conditions, that could delay the fall freeze-up and influence the variability in sea ice extent and volume. Lastly, a small change in the frequency of occurrence of atmosphere states may yield a larger Arctic cloud feedback than any cloud response to sea ice.

Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Color Variability in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conaty, A. P.

2001-12-01

The South China Sea is a marginal sea in the Southeast Asian region whose surface circulation is driven by monsoons and whose surface currents have complex seasonal patterns. Its rich natural resources and strategic location have made its small islands areas of political dispute among the neighboring nations. This study aims to show the seasonal and interannual variability of sea surface temperature and ocean color in South China Sea. It makes use of NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data sets on sea surface temperature for the period 1981-2000 and NASA's Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data sets on pigment concentration (ocean color) for the period 1981-1996 and 1997-2000, respectively. Transect lines were drawn along several potential hotspot areas to show the variability in sea surface temperature and pigment concentration through time. In-situ data on sea surface temperature along South China Sea were likewise plotted to see the variability with time. Higher seasonal variability in sea surface temperature was seen at higher latitudes. Interannual variability was within 1-3 Kelvin. In most areas, pigment concentration was higher during northern hemisphere winter and autumn, after the monsoon rains, with a maximum of 30 milligrams per cubic meter.

The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Chang, Yehui; Branstator, Grant

2000-01-01

This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results. Linear calculations that include forcing from the AGCM variance of the tropical forcing and submonthly transients show a small impact on the variability over the Pacific/North American region compared with that of the base state differences.

How predictable are equatorial Atlantic surface winds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Ingo; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin

2017-04-01

Sensitivity tests with the SINTEX-F general circulation model (GCM) as well as experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the extent to which sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the variability and predictability of monthly mean surface winds in the equatorial Atlantic. In the SINTEX-F experiments, a control experiment with prescribed observed SST for the period 1982-2014 is modified by inserting climatological values in certain regions, thereby eliminating SST anomalies. When SSTs are set to climatology in the tropical Atlantic only (30S to 30N), surface wind variability over the equatorial Atlantic (5S-5N) decreases by about 40% in April-May-June (AMJ). This suggests that about 60% of surface wind variability is due to either internal atmospheric variability or SSTs anomalies outside the tropical Atlantic. A further experiment with climatological SSTs in the equatorial Pacific indicates that another 10% of variability in AMJ may be due to remote influences from that basin. Experiments from the CMIP5 archive, in which climatological SSTs are prescribed globally, tend to confirm the results from SINTEX-F but show a wide spread. In some models, the equatorial Atlantic surface wind variability decreases by more than 90%, while in others it even increases. Overall, the results suggest that about 50-60% of surface wind variance in AMJ is predictable, while the rest is due to internal atmospheric variability. Other months show significantly lower predictability. The relatively strong internal variability as well as the influence of remote SSTs suggest a limited role for coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in equatorial Atlantic variability.

Pupil size reflects the focus of feature-based attention.

PubMed

Binda, Paola; Pereverzeva, Maria; Murray, Scott O

2014-12-15

We measured pupil size in adult human subjects while they selectively attended to one of two surfaces, bright and dark, defined by coherently moving dots. The two surfaces were presented at the same location; therefore, subjects could select the cued surface only on the basis of its features. With no luminance change in the stimulus, we find that pupil size was smaller when the bright surface was attended and larger when the dark surface was attended: an effect of feature-based (or surface-based) attention. With the same surfaces at nonoverlapping locations, we find a similar effect of spatial attention. The pupil size modulation cannot be accounted for by differences in eye position and by other variables known to affect pupil size such as task difficulty, accommodation, or the mere anticipation (imagery) of bright/dark stimuli. We conclude that pupil size reflects not just luminance or cognitive state, but the interaction between the two: it reflects which luminance level in the visual scene is relevant for the task at hand. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

Study of bituminous surface treatments in Virginia : analysis of factors that significantly influence the quality of bituminous surface treatments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1970-01-01

It is obvious that many variables may influence the quality of a surface treatment, but the relative importance of the many variables involved is a matter of conjecture. The purpose of this study was to define those variables which do significantly i...

Sea Surface Salinity Variability from Simulations and Observations: Preparing for Aquarius

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, S. Daniel; LeVine, David M.

2010-01-01

Oceanic fresh water transport has been shown to play an important role in the global hydrological cycle. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is representative of the surface fresh water fluxes and the upcoming Aquarius mission scheduled to be launched in December 2010 will provide excellent spatial and temporal SSS coverage to better estimate the net exchange. In most ocean general circulation models, SSS is relaxed to climatology to prevent model drift. While SST remains a well observed variable, relaxing to SST reduces the range of SSS variability in the simulations (Fig.1). The main objective of the present study is to simulate surface tracers using a primitive equation ocean model for multiple forcing data sets to identify and establish a baseline SSS variability. The simulated variability scales are compared to those from near-surface argo salinity measurements.

Methods and costs of thin-seam mining. Final report, 25 September 1977-24 January 1979. [Thin seam in association with a thick seam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finch, T.E.; Fidler, E.L.

1981-02-01

This report defines the state of the art (circa 1978) in removing thin coal seams associated with vastly thicker seams found in the surface coal mines of the western United States. New techniques are evaluated and an innovative method and machine is proposed. Western states resource recovery regulations are addressed and representative mining operations are examined. Thin seam recovery is investigated through its effect on (1) overburden removal, (2) conventional seam extraction methods, and (3) innovative techniques. Equations and graphs are used to accommodate the variable stratigraphic positions in the mining sequence on which thin seams occur. Industrial concern andmore » agency regulations provided the impetus for this study of total resource recovery. The results are a compendium of thin seam removal methods and costs. The work explains how the mining industry recovers thin coal seams in western surface mines where extremely thick seams naturally hold the most attention. It explains what new developments imply and where to look for new improvements and their probable adaptability.« less

Study on the relevance of some of the description methods for plateau-honed surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousfi, M.; Mezghani, S.; Demirci, I.; El Mansori, M.

2014-01-01

Much work has been undertaken in recent years into the determination of a complete parametric description of plateau-honed surfaces with the intention of making a link between the process conditions, the surface topography and the required functional performances. Different advanced techniques (plateau/valleys decomposition using the normalized Abbott-Firestone curve or morphological operators, multiscale decomposition using continuous wavelets transform, etc) were proposed and applied in different studies. This paper re-examines the current state of developments and addresses a discussion on the relevance of the different proposed parameters and characterization methods for plateau-honed surfaces by considering the control loop manufacturing-characterization-function. The relevance of appropriate characterization is demonstrated through two experimental studies. They consider the effect of the most plateau honing process variables (the abrasive grit size and abrasive indentation velocity in finish-honing and the plateau-honing stage duration and pressure) on cylinder liner surface textures and hydrodynamic friction of the ring-pack system.

Color-Tunable ZnO/GaN Heterojunction LEDs Achieved by Coupling with Ag Nanowire Surface Plasmons.

PubMed

Yang, Liu; Wang, Yue; Xu, Haiyang; Liu, Weizhen; Zhang, Cen; Wang, Chunliang; Wang, Zhongqiang; Ma, Jiangang; Liu, Yichun

2018-05-09

Color-tunable light-emitting devices (LEDs) have a great impact on our daily life. Herein, LEDs with tunable electroluminescence (EL) color were achieved via introducing Ag nanowires surface plasmons into p-GaN/n-ZnO film heterostructures. By optimizing the surface coverage density of coated Ag nanowires, the EL color was changed continuously from yellow-green to blue-violet. Transient-state and temperature-variable fluorescence emission characterizations uncovered that the spontaneous emission rate and the internal quantum efficiency of the near-UV emission were increased as a consequence of the resonance coupling interaction between Ag nanowires surface plasmons and ZnO excitons. This effect induces the selective enhancement of the blue-violet EL component but suppresses the defect-related yellow-green emission, leading to the observed tunable EL color. The proposed strategy of introducing surface plasmons can be further applied to many other kinds of LEDs for their selective enhancement of EL intensity and effective adjustment of the emission color.

Enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Yu, Jin-Yi; Paek, Houk

2017-03-20

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability in the Pacific subtropical highs (PSHs) have major impacts on social and ecological systems. Here we present an Atlantic capacitor effect mechanism to suggest that the Atlantic is a key pacemaker of the biennial variability in the Pacific including that in ENSO and the PSHs during recent decades. The 'charging' (that is, ENSO imprinting the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) via an atmospheric bridge mechanism) and 'discharging' (that is, the NTA SST triggering the following ENSO via a subtropical teleconnection mechanism) processes alternate, generating the biennial rhythmic changes in the Pacific. Since the early 1990s, a warmer Atlantic due to the positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and global warming trend has provided more favourable background state for the Atlantic capacitor effect, giving rise to enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific that may increase the occurrence frequency of severe natural hazard events.

Enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Yu, Jin-Yi; Paek, Houk

2017-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability in the Pacific subtropical highs (PSHs) have major impacts on social and ecological systems. Here we present an Atlantic capacitor effect mechanism to suggest that the Atlantic is a key pacemaker of the biennial variability in the Pacific including that in ENSO and the PSHs during recent decades. The ‘charging' (that is, ENSO imprinting the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) via an atmospheric bridge mechanism) and ‘discharging' (that is, the NTA SST triggering the following ENSO via a subtropical teleconnection mechanism) processes alternate, generating the biennial rhythmic changes in the Pacific. Since the early 1990s, a warmer Atlantic due to the positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and global warming trend has provided more favourable background state for the Atlantic capacitor effect, giving rise to enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific that may increase the occurrence frequency of severe natural hazard events. PMID:28317857

Enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei; Yu, Jin-Yi; Paek, Houk

2017-03-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability in the Pacific subtropical highs (PSHs) have major impacts on social and ecological systems. Here we present an Atlantic capacitor effect mechanism to suggest that the Atlantic is a key pacemaker of the biennial variability in the Pacific including that in ENSO and the PSHs during recent decades. The `charging' (that is, ENSO imprinting the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) via an atmospheric bridge mechanism) and `discharging' (that is, the NTA SST triggering the following ENSO via a subtropical teleconnection mechanism) processes alternate, generating the biennial rhythmic changes in the Pacific. Since the early 1990s, a warmer Atlantic due to the positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and global warming trend has provided more favourable background state for the Atlantic capacitor effect, giving rise to enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific that may increase the occurrence frequency of severe natural hazard events.

An approach to evaluate the intra-urban thermal variability in summer using an urban indicator.

PubMed

Massetti, Luciano; Petralli, Martina; Brandani, Giada; Orlandini, Simone

2014-09-01

Urban planners and managers need tools to evaluate the performance of the present state and future development of cities in terms of comfort and quality of life. In this paper, an approach to analyse the intra-urban summer thermal variability, using an urban planning indicator, is presented. The proportion of buildings and concrete surfaces in a specific buffer area are calculated. Besides, the relationship between urban and temperature indicators is investigated and used to produce thermal maps of the city. This approach is applied to the analysis of intra-urban variability in Florence (Italy), of two thermal indices (heat index and cooling degree days) used to evaluate impacts on thermal comfort and energy consumption for indoor cooling. Our results suggest that urban planning indicators can describe intra-urban thermal variability in a way that can easily be used by urban planners for evaluating the effects of future urbanization scenarios on human health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in Arctic climate projections traced to variability of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, WIlco; van Heerwaarden, Chiel

2017-04-01

The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.

Different combination of MODIS land surface temperature data for daily air surface temperature estimation in North West Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noi Phan, Thanh; Kappas, Martin; Degener, Jan

2017-04-01

Land air temperature (Ta) with high spatial and temporal resolution plays an important role in various applications, such as: crop growth monitoring and simulations, environmental risk models, weather forecasting, land use cover change, urban heat islands, etc. Daily Ta (including Ta-max, Ta-min, and Ta-mean) is usually measured by weather stations (often at 2 m above the ground); thus, Ta is limited in spatial coverage. Satellite data, especially MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data at 1 kilometre and high temporal resolution (4 times per day, combining TERRA and AQUA) are free available and easily to access. However, there is a difference between Ta and LST because of the complex surface energy budget and multiple related variables between them. Several researches states that the Ta could be estimated using MODIS LST data with accurate of 2-4oC. However, there are only a handful of studies using dynamically combining of four MODIS LST data for Ta estimation. In this study, we evaluated all 15 - possible - combinations of four MODIS LST using support vector machine (SVM) and random forests (RFs) models. MODIS LST and Ta data was extracted from 4 weather stations in rural area in North West Vietnam from 2010 to 2012 (three years). Our results indicated that the accuracy of Ta estimation was affected by the different combination and the combined data (multiple variables) gave better results than those of single LST (solely variable), the best result was achieved (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.95, 0.97, 0.97; root mean square error (RMSE) =1.7, 1.4, 1.2 oC for Ta-min, Ta-max, Ta-mean respectively) when all four LSTs were combined and RFs performed better than SVM.

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downes, Stephanie M.; Farneti, Riccardo; Uotila, Petteri; Griffies, Stephen M.; Marsland, Simon J.; Bailey, David; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne;

Contribution of rivers and floodplains to the global terrestrial water storage variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getirana, A.; Kumar, S.; Girotto, M.; Rodell, M.

2017-12-01

Since the launch of the GRACE mission in 2002, the scientific community has gained significant insight into terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations around the world. Still, understanding of the relationship between TWS variations and changes in its individual components (groundwater, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, and vegetation water storage) has not advanced beyond small-scale studies based on in situ data. Although a few studies have demonstrated the impact that surface water storage (SWS) has on TWS in tropical basins, the vast majority of investigations on TWS decomposition systematically neglect SWS by assuming that its contribution to TWS is trivial. Even though that assumption might be a close representation of the truth in specific locations, the actual impact of SWS on the global TWS change and its spatial variability is unknown. This study aims to quantify the contribution of rivers and floodplains on the global terrestrial water storage (TWS) variability. We use state-of-the-art models to simulate land surface processes and river dynamics in order to separate TWS into its main components. Based on a proposed impact index, we show that surface water storage (SWS) contributes to 7% of TWS globally, but that contribution highly varies spatially. The primary contribution of SWS to TWS is in the tropics, and in major rivers flowing over arid regions or at high latitudes. About 20-23% of both Amazon and Nile basins' TWS changes are due to SWS. SWS has low impact in Western U.S., Northern Africa, Middle-East and central Asia. Based on comparisons against GRACE-based estimates, we conclude that using SWS significantly improves TWS simulations in most South America, Africa and Northern India, confirming the need for SWS as a key component of TWS change.

Quantifying the processes controlling intraseasonal mixed-layer temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Tong; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Guan, Bin

2015-02-01

Spatial and temporal variation of processes that determine ocean mixed-layer (ML) temperature (MLT) variability on the timescale of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are examined in a heat-conserving ocean state estimate for years 1993-2011. We introduce a new metric for representing spatial variability of the relative importance of processes. In general, horizontal advection is most important at the Equator. Subsurface processes and surface heat flux are more important away from the Equator, with surface heat flux being the more dominant factor. Analyses at key sites are discussed in the context of local dynamics and literature. At 0°, 80.5°E, for MLT events > 2 standard deviations, ocean dynamics account for more than two thirds of the net tendency during cooling and warming phases. Zonal advection alone accounts for ˜40% of the net tendency. Moderate events (1-2 standard deviations) show more differences between events, and some are dominated by surface heat flux. At 8°S, 67°E in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) area, surface heat flux accounts for ˜70% of the tendency during strong cooling and warming phases; subsurface processes linked to ML depth (MLD) deepening (shoaling) during cooling (warming) account for ˜30%. MLT is more sensitive to subsurface processes in the SCTR, due to the thin MLD, thin barrier layer and raised thermocline. Results for 8°S, 67°E support assertions by Vialard et al. (2008) not previously confirmed due to measurement error that prevented budget closure and the small number of events studied. The roles of MLD, barrier layer thickness, and thermocline depth on different timescales are examined.

Variability of Cloud Cover and Its Relation to Snowmelt and Runoff in the Mountainous Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumargo, E.; Cayan, D. R.; Iacobellis, S.

2014-12-01

Obtaining accurate solar radiation input to snowmelt runoff models remains a fundamental challenge for water supply forecasters in the mountainous western U.S. The variability of cloud cover is a primary source of uncertainty in estimating surface radiation, especially given that ground-based radiometer networks in mountain terrains are sparse. Thus, remote sensed cloud properties provide a way to extend in situ observations and more importantly, to understand cloud variability in montane environment. We utilize 17 years of NASA/NOAA GOES visible albedo product with 4 km spatial and half-hour temporal resolutions to investigate daytime cloud variability in the western U.S. at elevations above 800 m. REOF/PC analysis finds that the 5 leading modes account for about two-thirds of the total daily cloud albedo variability during the whole year (ALL) and snowmelt season (AMJJ). The AMJJ PCs are significantly correlated with de-seasonalized snowmelt derived from CDWR CDEC and NRCS SNOTEL SWE data and USGS stream discharge across the western conterminous states. The sum of R2 from 7 days prior to the day of snowmelt/discharge amounts to as much as ~52% on snowmelt and ~44% on discharge variation. Spatially, the correlation patterns take on broad footprints, with strongest signals in regions of highest REOF weightings. That the response of snowmelt and streamflow to cloud variation is spread across several days indicates the cumulative effect of cloud variation on the energy budget in mountain catchments.

Temporal and spatial patterns of wetland extent influence variability of surface water connectivity in the Prairie Pothole Region, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vanderhoof, Melanie; Alexander, Laurie C.; Todd, Jason

2016-01-01

Context. Quantifying variability in landscape-scale surface water connectivity can help improve our understanding of the multiple effects of wetlands on downstream waterways. Objectives. We examined how wetland merging and the coalescence of wetlands with streams varied both spatially (among ecoregions) and interannually (from drought to deluge) across parts of the Prairie Pothole Region. Methods. Wetland extent was derived over a time series (1990-2011) using Landsat imagery. Changes in landscape-scale connectivity, generated by the physical coalescence of wetlands with other surface water features, were quantified by fusing static wetland and stream datasets with Landsat-derived wetland extent maps, and related to multiple wetness indices. The usage of Landsat allows for decadal-scale analysis, but limits the types of surface water connections that can be detected. Results. Wetland extent correlated positively with the merging of wetlands and wetlands with streams. Wetness conditions, as defined by drought indices and runoff, were positively correlated with wetland extent, but less consistently correlated with measures of surface water connectivity. The degree of wetland-wetland merging was found to depend less on total wetland area or density, and more on climate conditions, as well as the threshold for how wetland/upland was defined. In contrast, the merging of wetlands with streams was positively correlated with stream density, and inversely related to wetland density. Conclusions. Characterizing the degree of surface water connectivity within the Prairie Pothole Region in North America requires consideration of 1) climate-driven variation in wetness conditions and 2) within-region variation in wetland and stream spatial arrangements.

Evaluation of keratoconus progression.

PubMed

Shajari, Mehdi; Steinwender, Gernot; Herrmann, Kim; Kubiak, Kate Barbara; Pavlovic, Ivana; Plawetzki, Elena; Schmack, Ingo; Kohnen, Thomas

2018-06-01

To define variables for the evaluation of keratoconus progression and to determine cut-off values. In this retrospective cohort study (2010-2016), 265 eyes of 165 patients diagnosed with keratoconus underwent two Scheimpflug measurements (Pentacam) that took place 1 year apart ±3 months. Variables used for keratoconus detection were evaluated for progression and a correlation analysis was performed. By logistic regression analysis, a keratoconus progression index (KPI) was defined. Receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was performed and Youden Index calculated to determine cut-off values. Variables used for keratoconus detection showed a weak correlation with each other (eg, correlation r=0.245 between RPImin and Kmax, p<0.001). Therefore, we used parameters that took several variables into consideration (eg, D-index, index of surface variance, index for height asymmetry, KPI). KPI was defined by logistic regression and consisted of a Pachymin coefficient of -0.78 (p=0.001), a maximum elevation of back surface coefficient of 0.27 and coefficient of corneal curvature at the zone 3 mm away from the thinnest point on the posterior corneal surface of -12.44 (both p<0.001). The two variables with the highest Youden Index in the ROC analysis were D-index and KPI: D-index had a cut-off of 0.4175 (70.6% sensitivity) and Youden Index of 0.606. Cut-off for KPI was -0.78196 (84.7% sensitivity) and a Youden Index of 0.747; both 90% specificity. Keratoconus progression should be defined by evaluating parameters that consider several corneal changes; we suggest D-index and KPI to detect progression. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Newtonian nudging for a Richards equation-based distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Putti, Mario; Verbunt, Mark

The objective of data assimilation is to provide physically consistent estimates of spatially distributed environmental variables. In this study a relatively simple data assimilation method has been implemented in a relatively complex hydrological model. The data assimilation technique is Newtonian relaxation or nudging, in which model variables are driven towards observations by a forcing term added to the model equations. The forcing term is proportional to the difference between simulation and observation (relaxation component) and contains four-dimensional weighting functions that can incorporate prior knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability and characteristic scales of the state variable(s) being assimilated. The numerical model couples a three-dimensional finite element Richards equation solver for variably saturated porous media and a finite difference diffusion wave approximation based on digital elevation data for surface water dynamics. We describe the implementation of the data assimilation algorithm for the coupled model and report on the numerical and hydrological performance of the resulting assimilation scheme. Nudging is shown to be successful in improving the hydrological simulation results, and it introduces little computational cost, in terms of CPU and other numerical aspects of the model's behavior, in some cases even improving numerical performance compared to model runs without nudging. We also examine the sensitivity of the model to nudging term parameters including the spatio-temporal influence coefficients in the weighting functions. Overall the nudging algorithm is quite flexible, for instance in dealing with concurrent observation datasets, gridded or scattered data, and different state variables, and the implementation presented here can be readily extended to any of these features not already incorporated. Moreover the nudging code and tests can serve as a basis for implementation of more sophisticated data assimilation techniques in a Richards equation-based hydrological model.

Low-high latitude interaction forcing on the evolution of the 400 kyr cycle in East Asian winter monsoon records during the last 2.8 Myr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhao, Meixun; Tian, Jun

2017-09-01

Variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), stronger during glacials and weaker during interglacials, has been tightly linked to the wax and wane of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHIS) via the Siberian High over the last 2.8 million years (Myr). However, the long eccentricity cycle (ca. 400 kyr) in the EAWM record from the late Pliocene to early-Pleistocene (2.8-1.2 Ma) could not be linked to NHIS changes, which lacked the long eccentricity cycle in the Pleistocene. Here, we present the first low latitude EAWM record of the last 2.8 Myr using surface and subsurface temperature difference from the northern South China Sea to evaluate interactions between tropical ocean and EAWM changes. The results show that the EAWM variability displayed significant 400 kyr cycle between 2.8 Ma and 1.2 Ma, with weak (strong) EAWM during high (low) earth orbital eccentricity state. A super El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) proxy record, calculated using west-east equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature differences, revealed 400 kyr cycles throughout the last 2.8 Myr with warm phase during high eccentricity state. Thus, we propose that super ENSO mean state strongly modulated the EAWM strength through remote forcing to generate the 400 kyr cycle between 2.8 Ma and 1.2 Ma, while low NHIS volume was not sufficient to dominate the EAWM variation as it did over the last 0.9 Myr with 100 kyr cycles in dominance.

PDO and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Control Grassland Plant Production across the United States Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parton, W. J.; Del Grosso, S. J.; Smith, W. K.; Chen, M.

2017-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are multi-annual to multi-decadal climate patterns defined by ocean temperature anomalies that can strongly modulate climate variability. Here we evaluated the impacts of PDO and ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on observed grassland above ground plant production (ANPP; 1940 to 2015), spring (April to July) cumulative actual evapotranspiration (iAET; 1900 to 2015) , and satellite-derived growing season (April to October) cumulative normalized difference vegetation index (iNDVI 1982 to 2015) across the United States Great Plains. The results showed that grassland ANPP is well correlated to iAET (r2=0.69) and iNDVI (r2=0.50 to 0.70) for the Cheyenne Wyoming and Northeastern Colorado long-term ANPP sites. At the site scale, during the negative phase of the PDO, we find ANPP is much lower (25%) and that variability of iAET, iNDVI, and ANPP are much higher (2 to 3 times) compared to the warm phase PDO. Further, we find there is a high frequency of below normal iAET when PDO and ENSO SST's are both negative, while there is a high frequency of above normal iAET when PDO and ENSO values are positive. At the regional scale, iAET, iNDVI, and modeled ANPP data sets show that plant production and iAET values are high in the southern Great Plains and low in the northern Great Plains when spring PDO and ENSO are both in the positive phase, while the opposite pattern is observed when both PDO and ENSO are both in the negative phase. Variability of iAET, iNDVI, and modeled ANPP are much higher in the central Great Plains during the negative phase PDO. We demonstrate clearly that the PDO and ENSO SST anomalies have large impacts on mean and variability of grassland plant production across the Great Plains.

Community drinking water quality monitoring data: utility for public health research and practice.

PubMed

Jones, Rachael M; Graber, Judith M; Anderson, Robert; Rockne, Karl; Turyk, Mary; Stayner, Leslie T

2014-01-01

Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) tracks the occurrence and magnitude of environmental hazards and associated adverse health effects over time. The EPHT program has formally expanded its scope to include finished drinking water quality. Our objective was to describe the features, strengths, and limitations of using finished drinking water quality data from community water systems (CWSs) for EPHT applications, focusing on atrazine and nitrogen compounds in 8 Midwestern states. Water quality data were acquired after meeting with state partners and reviewed and merged for analysis. Data and the coding of variables, particularly with respect to censored results (nondetects), were not standardized between states. Monitoring frequency varied between CWSs and between atrazine and nitrates, but this was in line with regulatory requirements. Cumulative distributions of all contaminants were not the same in all states (Peto-Prentice test P < .001). Atrazine results were highly censored in all states (76.0%-99.3%); higher concentrations were associated with increased measurement frequency and surface water as the CWS source water type. Nitrate results showed substantial state-to-state variability in censoring (20.5%-100%) and in associations between concentrations and the CWS source water type. Statistical analyses of these data are challenging due to high rates of censoring and uncertainty about the appropriateness of parametric assumptions for time-series data. Although monitoring frequency was consistent with regulations, the magnitude of time gaps coupled with uncertainty about CWS service areas may limit linkage with health outcome data.

Extreme air-sea surface turbulent fluxes in mid latitudes - estimation, origins and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Natalia, Tilinina

2014-05-01

Extreme turbulent heat fluxes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid latitudes were estimated from the modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25) for the period from 1979 onwards. We used direct surface turbulent flux output as well as reanalysis state variables from which fluxes have been computed using COARE-3 bulk algorithm. For estimation of extreme flux values we analyzed surface flux probability density distribution which was approximated by Modified Fisher-Tippett distribution. In all reanalyses extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500-2000 W/m2 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W/m2 for higher percentiles in the western boundary current extension (WBCE) regions. Different reanalyses show significantly different shape of MFT distribution, implying considerable differences in the estimates of extreme fluxes. The highest extreme turbulent latent heat fluxes are diagnosed in NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses with the smallest being in MERRA. These differences may not necessarily reflect the differences in mean values. Analysis shows that differences in statistical properties of the state variables are the major source of differences in the shape of PDF of fluxes and in the estimates of extreme fluxes while the contribution of computational schemes used in different reanalyses is minor. The strongest differences in the characteristics of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the WBCE extension regions and high latitudes. In the next instance we analyzed the mechanisms responsible for forming surface turbulent fluxes and their potential role in changes of midlatitudinal heat balance. Midlatitudinal cyclones were considered as the major mechanism responsible for extreme turbulent fluxes which are typically occur during the cold air outbreaks in the rear parts of cyclones when atmospheric conditions provide locally high winds and air-sea temperature gradients. For this purpose we linked characteristics of cyclone activity over the midlatitudinal oceans with the extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes. Cyclone tracks and parameters of cyclone life cycle (deepening rates, propagation velocities, life time and clustering) were derived from the same reanalyses using state of the art numerical tracking algorithm. The main questions addressed in this study are (i) through which mechanisms extreme surface fluxes are associated with cyclone activity? and (ii) which types of cyclones are responsible for forming extreme turbulent fluxes? Our analysis shows that extreme surface fluxes are typically associated not with cyclones themselves but rather with cyclone-anticyclone interaction zones. This implies that North Atlantic and North Pacific series of intense cyclones do not result in the anomalous surface fluxes. Alternatively, extreme fluxes are most frequently associated with blocking situations, particularly with the intensification of the Siberian and North American Anticyclones providing cold-air outbreaks over WBC regions.

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

2017-11-15

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

2017-11-01

Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

Variable spreading layer in 4U 1608-52 during thermonuclear X-ray bursts in the soft state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajava, J. J. E.; Koljonen, K. I. I.; Nättilä, J.; Suleimanov, V.; Poutanen, J.

2017-11-01

Thermonuclear (type-I) X-ray bursts, observed from neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXB), provide constraints on NS masses and radii and consequently the equation of state of NS cores. In such analyses, various assumptions are made without knowing if they are justified. We have analysed X-ray burst spectra from the LMXB 4U 1608-52, with the aim of studying how the different persistent emission components react to the bursts. During some bursts in the soft spectral state we find that there are two variable components: one corresponding to the burst blackbody component and another optically thick Comptonized component. We interpret the latter as the spreading layer between the NS surface and the accretion disc, which is not present during the hard-state bursts. We propose that the spectral changes during the soft-state bursts are driven by the spreading layer that could cover almost the entire NS in the brightest phases due to the enhanced radiation pressure support provided by the burst, and that the layer subsequently returns to its original state during the burst decay. When deriving the NS mass and radius using the soft-state bursts two assumptions are therefore not met: the NS is not entirely visible and the burst emission is reprocessed in the spreading layer, causing distortions of the emitted spectrum. For these reasons, the NS mass and radius constraints using the soft-state bursts are different compared to the ones derived using the hard-state bursts.

Analyzing parameters optimisation in minimising warpage on side arm using response surface methodology (RSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayhana, N.; Fathullah, M.; Shayfull, Z.; Nasir, S. M.; Hazwan, M. H. M.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a systematic methodology to analyse the warpage of the side arm part using Autodesk Moldflow Insight software. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was proposed to optimise the processing parameters that will result in optimal solutions by efficiently minimising the warpage of the side arm part. The variable parameters considered in this study was based on most significant parameters affecting warpage stated by previous researchers, that is melt temperature, mould temperature and packing pressure while adding packing time and cooling time as these is the commonly used parameters by researchers. The results show that warpage was improved by 10.15% and the most significant parameters affecting warpage are packing pressure.

Meridionally propagating interannual-to-interdecadal variability in a linear ocean-atmosphere model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Vikram M.

1992-01-01

Meridional oscillation modes in a global, primitive-equation coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been analyzed in order to determine whether they contain such meridionally propagating modes as surface-pressure perturbations with years-to-decades oscillation periods. A two-layer global ocean model and a two-level global atmosphere model were then formulated. For realistic parameter values and basic states, meridional modes oscillating at periods of several years to several decades are noted to be present in the coupled ocean-atmosphere model; the oscillation periods, travel times, and meridional structures of surface pressure perturbations in one of the modes are found to be comparable to the corresponding characteristics of observed sea-level pressure perturbations.

Do cell surface trafficking impairments account for variable cell surface sodium iodide symporter levels in breast cancer?

PubMed Central

Beyer, S.J.; Jimenez, R.E.; Shapiro, C.L.; Cho, J.Y.; Jhiang, S.M.

2009-01-01

The Na+/I- symporter (NIS) is a transmembrane glycoprotein that mediates iodide uptake into thyroid follicular cells and serves as the molecular basis of radioiodine imaging and therapy for thyroid cancer patients. The finding that NIS protein is present in 80-90% of breast tumors suggests that breast cancer patients may also benefit from NIS-mediated radionuclide imaging and targeted therapy. However, only 17-25% of NIS-positive breast tumors have detectable radionuclide uptake activity. The discrepancy between NIS expression and radionuclide uptake activity is most likely contributed by variable cell surface NIS protein levels. Apart from the prevalent view that NIS cell surface trafficking impairments account for the variability, our current study proposes that differential levels of NIS expression may also account for variable cell surface NIS levels among breast tumors. We address the need to confirm the identity of intracellular NIS staining to reveal the mechanisms underlying variable cell surface NIS levels. In addition, we warrant a quantitative correlation between cell surface NIS levels and radionuclide uptake activity in patients such that the cell surface NIS levels required for radionuclide imaging can be defined and the defects impairing NIS activity can be recognized. PMID:18500672

Bound states and propagating modes in quantum wires with sharp bends and/or constrictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razavy, M.

1997-06-01

A number of interesting problems of quantum wires with different geometries can be studied with the help of conformal mapping. These include crossed wires, twisting wires, conductors with constrictions, and wires with a bend. Here the Helmholz equation with Dirichlet boundary condition on the surface of the wire is transformed to a Schröautdinger-like equation with an energy-dependent nonseparable potential but with boundary conditions given on two straight lines. By expanding the wave function in terms of the Fourier series of one of the variables one obtains an infinite set of coupled ordinary differential equations. Only the propagating modes plus a few of the localized modes contribute significantly to the total wave function. Once the problem is solved, one can express the results in terms of the original variables using the inverse conformal mapping. As an example, the total wave function, the components of the current density, and the bound-state energy for a Γ-shaped quantum wire is calculated in detail.

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vanderhoof, Melanie; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael L.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

2018-01-01

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Parameter variation effects on temperature elevation in a steady-state, one-dimensional thermal model for millimeter wave exposure of one- and three-layer human tissue.

PubMed

Kanezaki, Akio; Hirata, Akimasa; Watanabe, Soichi; Shirai, Hiroshi

2010-08-21

The present study describes theoretical parametric analysis of the steady-state temperature elevation in one-dimensional three-layer (skin, fat and muscle) and one-layer (skin only) models due to millimeter-wave exposure. The motivation of this fundamental investigation is that some variability of warmth sensation in the human skin has been reported. An analytical solution for a bioheat equation was derived by using the Laplace transform for the one-dimensional human models. Approximate expressions were obtained to investigate the dependence of temperature elevation on different thermal and tissue thickness parameters. It was shown that the temperature elevation on the body surface decreases monotonically with the blood perfusion rate, heat conductivity and heat transfer from the body to air. Also revealed were the conditions where maximum and minimum surface temperature elevations were observed for different thermal and tissue thickness parameters. The surface temperature elevation in the three-layer model is 1.3-2.8 times greater than that in the one-layer model. The main reason for this difference is attributed to the adiabatic nature of the fat layer. By considering the variation range of thermal and tissue thickness parameters which causes the maximum and minimum temperature elevations, the dominant parameter influencing the surface temperature elevation was found to be the heat transfer coefficient between the body surface and air.

Hydrologic-energy balance constraints on the Holocene lake-level history of lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, H. D.; Dunbar, R. B.

2004-09-01

A basin-scale hydrologic-energy balance model that integrates modern climatological, hydrological, and hypsographic observations was developed for the modern Lake Titicaca watershed (northern Altiplano, South America) and operated under variable conditions to understand controls on post-glacial changes in lake level. The model simulates changes in five environmental variables (air temperature, cloud fraction, precipitation, relative humidity, and land surface albedo). Relatively small changes in three meteorological variables (mean annual precipitation, temperature, and/or cloud fraction) explain the large mid-Holocene lake-level decrease (˜85 m) inferred from seismic reflection profiling and supported by sediment-based paleoproxies from lake sediments. Climatic controls that shape the present-day Altiplano and the sediment-based record of Holocene lake-level change are combined to interpret model-derived lake-level simulations in terms of changes in the mean state of ENSO and its impact on moisture transport to the Altiplano.

Sea Ice and Hydrographic Variability in the Northwest North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenty, I. G.; Heimbach, P.; Wunsch, C. I.

2010-12-01

Sea ice anomalies in the Northwest North Atlantic's Labrador Sea are of climatic interest because of known and hypothesized feedbacks with hydrographic anomalies, deep convection/mode water formation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, hydrographic anomalies formed in the Arctic Ocean associated with warming will propagate into the Labrador Sea via the Fram Strait/West Greenland Current and the Canadian Archipelago/Baffin Island Current. Therefore, understanding the dynamical response of sea ice in the basin to hydrographic anomalies is essential for the prediction and interpretation of future high-latitude climate change. Historically, efforts to quantify the link between the observed sea ice and hydrographic variability in the region has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and sea ice observations with numerical models. To elaborate the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability, we create three one-year (1992-1993, 1996-1997, 2003-2004) three-dimensional time-varying reconstructions of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The reconstructions are syntheses of a regional coupled 32 km ocean-sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data using the adjoint method. The model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several model control variables (e.g., ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state) to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The reconstructions reveal that the ice pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March (the annual sea ice maximum) in which the total ice-covered area reaches a steady state -ice production and dynamical divergence along the coasts balances dynamical convergence and melt along the pack’s seaward edge. Sea ice advected to the marginal ice zone is mainly ablated via large sustained turbulent ocean enthalpy fluxes. The sensible heat required for these sustained fluxes is drawn from a reservoir of warm subsurface waters of subtropical origin entrained into the mixed layer via convective mixing. Analysis of ocean surface buoyancy fluxes during the period preceding quasi-equilibrium reveals that low-salinity upper ocean anomalies are required for ice to advance seaward of the Arctic Water/Irminger Water thermohaline front in the northern Labrador Sea. Anomalous low-salinity waters inhibit mixed layer deepening, shielding the advancing ice pack from the subsurface heat reservoir, and are conducive to a positive surface stratification enhancement feedback from ice meltwater release. Interestingly, the climatological location of the front coincides with the minimum observed wintertime ice extent; positive ice extent anomalies may require hydrographic preconditioning. If true, the export of low-salinity anomalies from melting Arctic ice associated with future warming may be predicted to lead positive ice extent anomalies in Labrador Sea via the positive surface stratification enhancement mechanism feedback outlined above.

Optimal Control Surface Layout for an Aeroservoelastic Wingbox

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, Bret K.

2017-01-01

This paper demonstrates a technique for locating the optimal control surface layout of an aeroservoelastic Common Research Model wingbox, in the context of maneuver load alleviation and active utter suppression. The combinatorial actuator layout design is solved using ideas borrowed from topology optimization, where the effectiveness of a given control surface is tied to a layout design variable, which varies from zero (the actuator is removed) to one (the actuator is retained). These layout design variables are optimized concurrently with a large number of structural wingbox sizing variables and control surface actuation variables, in order to minimize the sum of structural weight and actuator weight. Results are presented that demonstrate interdependencies between structural sizing patterns and optimal control surface layouts, for both static and dynamic aeroelastic physics.

Assimilating AmeriFlux Site Data into the Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen Coupling via the Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettijohn, J. C.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M. D.; Stoeckli, R.; Thornton, P. E.; Hudiburg, T. M.; Thomas, C. K.; Martin, J.; Hill, T. C.

2009-12-01

The assimilation of terrestrial carbon, water and nutrient cycle measurements into land surface models of these processes is fundamental to improving our ability to predict how these ecosystems may respond to climate change. A combination of measurements and models, each with their own systematic biases, must be considered when constraining the nonlinear behavior of these coupled dynamics. As such, we use the sequential Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to assimilate eddy covariance (EC) and other site-level AmeriFlux measurements into the NCAR Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen coupling (CLM-CN v3.5), run in single-column mode at a 30-minute time step, to improve estimates of relatively unconstrained model state variables and parameters. Specifically, we focus on a semi-arid ponderosa pine site (US-ME2) in the Pacific Northwest to identify the mechanisms by which this ecosystem responds to severe late summer drought. Our EnKF analysis includes water, carbon, energy and nitrogen state variables (e.g., 10 volumetric soil moisture levels (0-3.43 m), ponderosa pine and shrub evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide stocks and flux components, snow depth, etc.) and associated parameters (e.g., PFT-level rooting distribution parameters, maximum subsurface runoff coefficient, soil hydraulic conductivity decay factor, snow aging parameters, maximum canopy conductance, C:N ratios, etc.). The effectiveness of the EnKF in constraining state variables and associated parameters is sensitive to their relative frequencies, in that C-N state variables and parameters with long time constants require similarly long time series in the analysis. We apply the EnKF kernel perturbation routine to disrupt preliminary convergence of covariances, which has been found in recent studies to be a problem more characteristic of low frequency vegetation state variables and parameters than high frequency ones more heavily coupled with highly varying climate (e.g., shallow soil moisture, snow depth). Preliminary results demonstrate that the assimilation of EC and other available AmeriFlux site physical, chemical and biological data significantly helps quantify and reduce CLM-CN model uncertainties and helps to constrain ‘hidden’ states and parameters that are essential in the coupled water, carbon, energy and nutrient dynamics of these sites. Such site-level calibration of CLM-CN is an initial step in identifying model deficiencies and in forecasts of future ecosystem responses to climate change.

Impact of the 2008 Global Recession on Air Quality over the United States: Implications for Surface Ozone Levels from Changes in NOx Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tong, Daniel; Pan, Li; Chen, Weiwei; Lamsal, Lok; Lee, Pius; Tang, Youhua; Kim, Hyuncheol; Kondragunta, Shobha; Stajner, Ivanka

2016-01-01

Satellite and ground observations detected large variability in nitrogen oxides (NOx) during the 2008 economic recession, but the impact of the recession on air quality has not been quantified. This study combines observed NOx trends and a regional chemical transport model to quantify the impact of the recession on surface ozone (O3) levels over the continental United States. The impact is quantified by simulating O3 concentrations under two emission scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) and recession. In the BAU case, the emission projection from the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule is used to estimate the would-be NOx emission level in 2011. In the recession case, the actual NO2 trends observed from Air Quality System ground monitors and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on the Aura satellite are used to obtain realistic changes in NOx emissions. The model prediction with the recession effect agrees better with ground O3 observations over time and space than the prediction with the BAU emission. The results show that the recession caused a 12ppbv decrease in surface O3 concentration over the eastern United States, a slight increase (0.51ppbv) over the Rocky Mountain region, and mixed changes in the Pacific West. The gain in air quality benefits during the recession, however, could be quickly offset by the much slower emission reduction rate during the post-recession period.

An operational air quality objective analysis of surface pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menard, R.; Robichaud, A.

2013-05-01

As of December 2012 a surface analysis of O3, PM2.5 at a resolution of 10 km over Canada and USA has become an operational product of Environment Canada. Analyses based an optimum interpolation scheme adapted to the variability of surface pollutant is run each hour. We will briefly discuss the specifics of the scheme, the technical implementation that lead to an operational implementation, a description and validation of the product as it stands today. An analysis of NO2 and a map of an air quality health index is also under way. We are now developing a high resolution analysis, 2.5 km over major cities over the Montreal-Toronto area and over the Oil sands region. The effect of state-dependent error covariance modeling will be present with some early results of the high resolutions analysis/assimilation.

Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.

1982-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

2012-01-01

We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

2009-08-01

Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal, for instance, spatial asymmetries between different phases of the NAO that are likely important for ecological studies. It also follows that there is no universally accepted index to describe the temporal evolution of the NAO. Several of the most common measures are presented and compared. All reveal that there is no preferred time scale of variability for the NAO: large changes occur from one winter to the next and from one decade to the next. There is also a large amount of within-season variability in the patterns of atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic, so that most winters cannot be characterized solely by a canonical NAO structure. A better understanding of how the NAO responds to external forcing, including sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, stratospheric influences, and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is crucial to the current debate on climate variability and change.

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

2010-02-01

Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal, for instance, spatial asymmetries between different phases of the NAO that are likely important for ecological studies. It also follows that there is no universally accepted index to describe the temporal evolution of the NAO. Several of the most common measures are presented and compared. All reveal that there is no preferred time scale of variability for the NAO: large changes occur from one winter to the next and from one decade to the next. There is also a large amount of within-season variability in the patterns of atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic, so that most winters cannot be characterized solely by a canonical NAO structure. A better understanding of how the NAO responds to external forcing, including sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, stratospheric influences, and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is crucial to the current debate on climate variability and change.

Concentrations of Reactive Trace Gases In The Interstitial Air of Surface Snow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobi, H.-W.; Honrath, R. E.; Peterson, M. C.; Lu, Y.; Dibb, J. E.; Arsenault, M. A.; Swanson, A. L.; Blake, N. J.; Bales, R. C.; Schrems, O.

Several measurements at Arctic and Antarctic sites have demonstrated that unexpected photochemical reactions occur in irradiated surface snow influencing the composi- tion of the boundary layer over snow-covered areas. The results of these reactions are probably most obvious in the interstitial air of the surface snow since it constitutes the interface between the surface snow and the boundary layer. Therefore, measurements of concentrations of nitrogen oxide and dioxide, nitrous acid, formaldehyde, hydro- gen peroxide, formic acid, acetic acid, and other organic compounds were performed in the interstitial air of the surface snow of the Greenland ice sheet. Concentrations were measured at variable depths between - 10 cm and - 50 cm during the summer field season in 2000 at the Summit Environmental Observatory. At shallow depths, the system NO-NO2-O3 exhibits large deviations from the calculated photostationary state. Using steady-state analyses applied to OH-HO2-CH3O2 cycling indicated the presence of high concentrations of OH and peroxy radicals in the firn air. Maximum concentrations calculated for a depth of - 10 cm are in the order of 6 105 molecules cm-3 and 1.4 * 107 molecules cm-3 for OH and HO2, respectively, although radia- tion levels at - 10 cm are reduced by approximately 50 % compared to levels above the snow surface. By far the most important OH source is the photolysis of HONO while the photolysis of ozone contributes less than 2 % to the overall production of OH in the firn air.

Study of the (1 + 1) D Long Wavelength Steady States of the Bénard Problem For Ultrathin Films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chengzhe; Troian, Sandra

We investigate the stationary states of the (1 + 1) D equation ht +h3hxxx +h2γx (h) x = 0 for thin films of thickness h (x , t) where x is the spatial variable and t is time. The variable γ (h) , denotes the surface tension along the gas/liquid interface of the slender bilayer confined between two substrates enforcing thermal conduction within the gap. Equilibrium solutions include flat films, droplets, trenches/ridges and positive periodic steady states (PPSS), the latter conveniently parameterized by a generalized interfacial pressure and the global extremum in shape. We derive perturbative solutions describing PPSS shapes near the stability threshold including their minimal period, average height and free energy. Weakly nonlinear analysis confirms that flat films always undergo a supercritical unstable pitch-fork bifurcation. Globally, our numerical simulations indicate at most one non-trivial PPSS per given period and volume. The free energy of droplet states is also always lower than the relevant corresponding PPSS, suggesting that initial flat films tend to redistribute mass into droplet-like configurations. By solving the linearized eigenvalue problem, we also confirm the unstable nature of PPSS solutions far from the stability threshold.

Bioprocess optimization for production of thermoalkali-stable protease from Bacillus subtilis K-1 under solid-state fermentation.

PubMed

Singh, Satbir; Bajaj, Bijender Kumar

2016-10-02

Cost-effective production of proteases, which are robust enough to function under harsh process conditions, is always sought after due to their wide industrial application spectra. Solid-state production of enzymes using agro-industrial wastes as substrates is an environment-friendly approach, and it has several advantages such as high productivity, cost-effectiveness, being less labor-intensive, and less effluent production, among others. In the current study, different agro-wastes were employed for thermoalkali-stable protease production from Bacillus subtilis K-1 under solid-state fermentation. Agricultural residues such as cotton seed cake supported maximum protease production (728 U ml(-1)), which was followed by gram husk (714 U ml(-1)), mustard cake (680 U ml(-1)), and soybean meal (653 U ml(-1)). Plackett-Burman design of experiment showed that peptone, moisture content, temperature, phosphates, and inoculum size were the significant variables that influenced the protease production. Furthermore, statistical optimization of three variables, namely peptone, moisture content, and incubation temperature, by response surface methodology resulted in 40% enhanced protease production as compared to that under unoptimized conditions (from initial 728 to 1020 U ml(-1)). Thus, solid-state fermentation coupled with design of experiment tools represents a cost-effective strategy for production of industrial enzymes.

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haftka, Raphael T.

2002-01-01

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization, and design against uncertainty using response surface techniques.

Comparison of elevation and remote sensing derived products as auxiliary data for climate surface interpolation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alvarez, Otto; Guo, Qinghua; Klinger, Robert C.; Li, Wenkai; Doherty, Paul

2013-01-01

Climate models may be limited in their inferential use if they cannot be locally validated or do not account for spatial uncertainty. Much of the focus has gone into determining which interpolation method is best suited for creating gridded climate surfaces, which often a covariate such as elevation (Digital Elevation Model, DEM) is used to improve the interpolation accuracy. One key area where little research has addressed is in determining which covariate best improves the accuracy in the interpolation. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation was carried out in determining which covariates were most suitable for interpolating climatic variables (e.g. precipitation, mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature). We compiled data for each climate variable from 1950 to 1999 from approximately 500 weather stations across the Western United States (32° to 49° latitude and −124.7° to −112.9° longitude). In addition, we examined the uncertainty of the interpolated climate surface. Specifically, Thin Plate Spline (TPS) was used as the interpolation method since it is one of the most popular interpolation techniques to generate climate surfaces. We considered several covariates, including DEM, slope, distance to coast (Euclidean distance), aspect, solar potential, radar, and two Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A tenfold cross-validation was applied to determine the uncertainty of the interpolation based on each covariate. In general, the leading covariate for precipitation was radar, while DEM was the leading covariate for maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures. A comparison to other products such as PRISM and WorldClim showed strong agreement across large geographic areas but climate surfaces generated in this study (ClimSurf) had greater variability at high elevation regions, such as in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Predicting the Occurrence of Cave-Inhabiting Fauna Based on Features of the Earth Surface Environment.

PubMed

Christman, Mary C; Doctor, Daniel H; Niemiller, Matthew L; Weary, David J; Young, John A; Zigler, Kirk S; Culver, David C

2016-01-01

One of the most challenging fauna to study in situ is the obligate cave fauna because of the difficulty of sampling. Cave-limited species display patchy and restricted distributions, but it is often unclear whether the observed distribution is a sampling artifact or a true restriction in range. Further, the drivers of the distribution could be local environmental conditions, such as cave humidity, or they could be associated with surface features that are surrogates for cave conditions. If surface features can be used to predict the distribution of important cave taxa, then conservation management is more easily obtained. We examined the hypothesis that the presence of major faunal groups of cave obligate species could be predicted based on features of the earth surface. Georeferenced records of cave obligate amphipods, crayfish, fish, isopods, beetles, millipedes, pseudoscorpions, spiders, and springtails within the area of Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative in the eastern United States (Illinois to Virginia and New York to Alabama) were assigned to 20 x 20 km grid cells. Habitat suitability for these faunal groups was modeled using logistic regression with twenty predictor variables within each grid cell, such as percent karst, soil features, temperature, precipitation, and elevation. Models successfully predicted the presence of a group greater than 65% of the time (mean = 88%) for the presence of single grid cell endemics, and for all faunal groups except pseudoscorpions. The most common predictor variables were latitude, percent karst, and the standard deviation of the Topographic Position Index (TPI), a measure of landscape rugosity within each grid cell. The overall success of these models points to a number of important connections between the surface and cave environments, and some of these, especially soil features and topographic variability, suggest new research directions. These models should prove to be useful tools in predicting the presence of species in understudied areas.

Predicting the Occurrence of Cave-Inhabiting Fauna Based on Features of the Earth Surface Environment

PubMed Central

Doctor, Daniel H.; Niemiller, Matthew L.; Weary, David J.; Young, John A.; Zigler, Kirk S.

2016-01-01

One of the most challenging fauna to study in situ is the obligate cave fauna because of the difficulty of sampling. Cave-limited species display patchy and restricted distributions, but it is often unclear whether the observed distribution is a sampling artifact or a true restriction in range. Further, the drivers of the distribution could be local environmental conditions, such as cave humidity, or they could be associated with surface features that are surrogates for cave conditions. If surface features can be used to predict the distribution of important cave taxa, then conservation management is more easily obtained. We examined the hypothesis that the presence of major faunal groups of cave obligate species could be predicted based on features of the earth surface. Georeferenced records of cave obligate amphipods, crayfish, fish, isopods, beetles, millipedes, pseudoscorpions, spiders, and springtails within the area of Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative in the eastern United States (Illinois to Virginia and New York to Alabama) were assigned to 20 x 20 km grid cells. Habitat suitability for these faunal groups was modeled using logistic regression with twenty predictor variables within each grid cell, such as percent karst, soil features, temperature, precipitation, and elevation. Models successfully predicted the presence of a group greater than 65% of the time (mean = 88%) for the presence of single grid cell endemics, and for all faunal groups except pseudoscorpions. The most common predictor variables were latitude, percent karst, and the standard deviation of the Topographic Position Index (TPI), a measure of landscape rugosity within each grid cell. The overall success of these models points to a number of important connections between the surface and cave environments, and some of these, especially soil features and topographic variability, suggest new research directions. These models should prove to be useful tools in predicting the presence of species in understudied areas. PMID:27532611

Predicting the occurrence of cave-inhabiting fauna based on features of the earth surface environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christman, Mary C.; Doctor, Daniel H.; Niemiller, Matthew L.; Weary, David J.; Young, John A.; Zigler, Kirk S.; Culver, David C.

2016-01-01

One of the most challenging fauna to study in situ is the obligate cave fauna because of the difficulty of sampling. Cave-limited species display patchy and restricted distributions, but it is often unclear whether the observed distribution is a sampling artifact or a true restriction in range. Further, the drivers of the distribution could be local environmental conditions, such as cave humidity, or they could be associated with surface features that are surrogates for cave conditions. If surface features can be used to predict the distribution of important cave taxa, then conservation management is more easily obtained. We examined the hypothesis that the presence of major faunal groups of cave obligate species could be predicted based on features of the earth surface. Georeferenced records of cave obligate amphipods, crayfish, fish, isopods, beetles, millipedes, pseudoscorpions, spiders, and springtails within the area of Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative in the eastern United States (Illinois to Virginia and New York to Alabama) were assigned to 20 x 20 km grid cells. Habitat suitability for these faunal groups was modeled using logistic regression with twenty predictor variables within each grid cell, such as percent karst, soil features, temperature, precipitation, and elevation. Models successfully predicted the presence of a group greater than 65% of the time (mean = 88%) for the presence of single grid cell endemics, and for all faunal groups except pseudoscorpions. The most common predictor variables were latitude, percent karst, and the standard deviation of the Topographic Position Index (TPI), a measure of landscape rugosity within each grid cell. The overall success of these models points to a number of important connections between the surface and cave environments, and some of these, especially soil features and topographic variability, suggest new research directions. These models should prove to be useful tools in predicting the presence of species in understudied areas.

Energy flow and energy dissipation in a free surface.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldburg, Walter; Cressman, John

2005-11-01

Turbulent flows on a free surface are strongly compressible [1] and do not conserve energy in the absence of viscosity as bulk fluids do. Despite violation of assumptions essential to Kolmogorov's theory of 1941 (K41) [2, 3], surface flows show strong agreement with Kolmogorov scaling, though intermittency is larger there. Steady state turbulence is generated in a tank of water, and the spatially averaged energy flux is measured from the four-fifth's law at each instant of time. Likewise, the energy dissipation rate as measured from velocity gradients is also a random variable in this experiment. The energy flux - dissipation rate cross-correlation is measured to be correlated in incompressible bulk flows, but strongly anti-correlated on the surface. We argue that the reason for this discrepancy between surface and bulk flows is due to compressible effects present on the surface. [1] J. R. Cressman, J. Davoudi, W. I. Goldburg, and J. Schumacher, New Journal of Physics, 6, 53, 2004. [2] U. Frisch. Turbulence: The legacy of A. N. Kolmogorov, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1995. [3] A. N. Kolmogorov, Doklady Akad. Nauk SSSR, 32, 16, 1941.

Development of a Statistical Model for Forecasting Episodes of Visibility Degradation in the Denver Metropolitan Area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, P. J.; Barbarick, D. E.; Osterburg, R. D.

1995-03-01

In 1990, the State of Colorado implemented a visibility standard of 0.076 km1 of beta extinction for the Denver metropolitan area. Meteorologists with Colorado's Air Pollution Control Division forecast high pollution days associated with visibility impairment as well as those due to high levels of the federal criteria pollutants. Visibility forecasts are made from a few hours up to about 26 h in advance of the period of interest. Here we discuss the key microscale, mesoscale, and synoptic-scale features associated with episodes of visibility impairment. Data from special studies, case studies, and the 22 NOAA Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services mesonet sites have been invaluable in identifying patterns associated with extremes in visibility conditions. A preliminary statistical forecast model has been developed using variables that represent many of these patterns. Six variables were selected from an initial pool of 27 to be used in a model based on linear logistic regression. These six variables include forecast measures of snow cover, surface pressures and a surface pressure gradient in eastern Colorado, relative humidity, and 500-mb ridge position. The initial testing of the model has been encouraging. The model correctly predicted 76% of the good visibility days and 67% of the poor visibility days for a test set of 171 days.

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C; Mauget, Steven A

2015-04-21

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

PubMed Central

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C.; Mauget, Steven A.

2015-01-01

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal. PMID:25898351

A probabilistic bridge safety evaluation against floods.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Wei; Muto, Yasunori; Chen, Wei-Lun; Wu, Bang-Ho

2016-01-01

To further capture the influences of uncertain factors on river bridge safety evaluation, a probabilistic approach is adopted. Because this is a systematic and nonlinear problem, MPP-based reliability analyses are not suitable. A sampling approach such as a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) or importance sampling is often adopted. To enhance the efficiency of the sampling approach, this study utilizes Bayesian least squares support vector machines to construct a response surface followed by an MCS, providing a more precise safety index. Although there are several factors impacting the flood-resistant reliability of a bridge, previous experiences and studies show that the reliability of the bridge itself plays a key role. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze the system reliability of a selected bridge that includes five limit states. The random variables considered here include the water surface elevation, water velocity, local scour depth, soil property and wind load. Because the first three variables are deeply affected by river hydraulics, a probabilistic HEC-RAS-based simulation is performed to capture the uncertainties in those random variables. The accuracy and variation of our solutions are confirmed by a direct MCS to ensure the applicability of the proposed approach. The results of a numerical example indicate that the proposed approach can efficiently provide an accurate bridge safety evaluation and maintain satisfactory variation.

Corrosion of V?Ti?Cr alloys in liquid lithium: influence of alloy composition and concentration of nitrogen in lithium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseeva, O. I.; Fedirko, V. N.; Chernov, V. M.; Zavialsky, L. P.

2000-12-01

The effect of V-(0-70)Ti-(0-30)Cr (at.%) compositions on their compatibility with nitrogen-containing lithium (0.0015-0.67 at.% N) at 7000°C under steady-state test conditions and long-term contact with lithium (up to 2000 h) has been studied. The conditions for formation and stable coexistence of nitride layers on the surface of various compositions under variable nitrogen concentration in lithium have been defined. The V-(8-10)Ti-(4-5)Cr compositions showed the best characteristics from the standpoint of corrosion resistance, nitride layer stability under conditions of variable nitrogen concentration in lithium, and the possibility of 'in situ' protective nitride layer formation.

Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, Christian; Porada, Philipp; Ekici, Altug; Brakebusch, Matthias

2018-03-01

Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated. For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using an artificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variability mainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens and bryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layers together substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil. As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8 °C higher when climate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of the Arctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables and more often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show that projected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking into account future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variables and (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions in land surface models.

Examining Environmental Gradients with satellite data in permafrost regions - the current state of the ESA GlobPermafrost initative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosse, G.; Bartsch, A.; Kääb, A.; Westermann, S.; Strozzi, T.; Wiesmann, A.; Duguay, C. R.; Seifert, F. M.; Obu, J.; Nitze, I.; Heim, B.; Haas, A.; Widhalm, B.

2017-12-01

Permafrost cannot be directly detected from space, but many surface features of permafrost terrains and typical periglacial landforms are observable with a variety of EO sensors ranging from very high to medium resolution at various wavelengths. In addition, landscape dynamics associated with permafrost changes and geophysical variables relevant for characterizing the state of permafrost, such as land surface temperature or freeze-thaw state can be observed with spaceborne Earth Observation. Suitable regions to examine environmental gradients across the Arctic have been defined in a community white paper (Bartsch et al. 2014, hdl:10013/epic.45648.d001). These transects have been revised and adjusted within the DUE GlobPermafrost initiative of the European Space Agency. The ESA DUE GlobPermafrost project develops, validates and implements Earth Observation (EO) products to support research communities and international organisations in their work on better understanding permafrost characteristics and dynamics. Prototype product cases will cover different aspects of permafrost by integrating in situ measurements of subsurface and surface properties, Earth Observation, and modelling to provide a better understanding of permafrost today. The project will extend local process and permafrost monitoring to broader spatial domains, support permafrost distribution modelling, and help to implement permafrost landscape and feature mapping in a GIS framework. It will also complement active layer and thermal observing networks. Both lowland (latitudinal) and mountain (altitudinal) permafrost issues are addressed. The status of the Permafrost Information System and first results will be presented. Prototypes of GlobPermafrost datasets include: Modelled mean annual ground temperature by use of land surface temperature and snow water equivalent from satellites Land surface characterization including shrub height, land cover and parameters related to surface roughness Trends from Landsat time-series over selected transects For selected sites: subsidence, ground fast lake ice, land surface features and rock glacier monitoring

Improving Global Net Surface Heat Flux with Ocean Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, J.; Chepurin, G. A.; Chen, L.; Grodsky, S.

2017-12-01

This project addresses the current level of uncertainty in surface heat flux estimates. Time mean surface heat flux estimates provided by atmospheric reanalyses differ by 10-30W/m2. They are generally unbalanced globally, and have been shown by ocean simulation studies to be incompatible with ocean temperature and velocity measurements. Here a method is presented 1) to identify the spatial and temporal structure of the underlying errors and 2) to reduce them by exploiting hydrographic observations and the analysis increments produced by an ocean reanalysis using sequential data assimilation. The method is applied to fluxes computed from daily state variables obtained from three widely used reanalyses: MERRA2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55, during an eight year period 2007-2014. For each of these seasonal heat flux errors/corrections are obtained. In a second set of experiments the heat fluxes are corrected and the ocean reanalysis experiments are repeated. This second round of experiments shows that the time mean error in the corrected fluxes is reduced to within ±5W/m2 over the interior subtropical and midlatitude oceans, with the most significant changes occuring over the Southern Ocean. The global heat flux imbalance of each reanalysis is reduced to within a few W/m2 with this single correction. Encouragingly, the corrected forms of the three sets of fluxes are also shown to converge. In the final discussion we present experiments beginning with a modified form of the ERA-Int reanalysis, produced by the DAKKAR program, in which state variables have been individually corrected based on independent measurements. Finally, we discuss the separation of flux error from model error.

Evidence for Legacy Contamination of Nitrate in Groundwater of North Carolina Using Monitoring and Private Well Data Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messier, K. P.; Kane, E.; Bolich, R.; Serre, M. L.

2014-12-01

Nitrate (NO3-) is a widespread contaminant of groundwater and surface water across the United States that has deleterious effects to human and ecological health. Legacy contamination, or past releases of NO3-, is thought to be impacting current groundwater and surface water of North Carolina. This study develops a model for predicting point-level groundwater NO3- at a state scale for monitoring wells and private wells of North Carolina. A land use regression (LUR) model selection procedure known as constrained forward nonlinear regression and hyperparameter optimization (CFN-RHO) is developed for determining nonlinear model explanatory variables when they are known to be correlated. Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is then used to integrate the LUR model to create a LUR-BME model of spatial/temporal varying groundwater NO3- concentrations. LUR-BME results in a leave-one-out cross-validation r2 of 0.74 and 0.33 for monitoring and private wells, effectively predicting within spatial covariance ranges. The major finding regarding legacy sources NO3- in this study is that the LUR-BME models show the geographical extent of low-level contamination of deeper drinking-water aquifers is beyond that of the shallower monitoring well. Groundwater NO3- in monitoring wells is highly variable with many areas predicted above the current Environmental Protection Agency standard of 10 mg/L. Contrarily, the private well results depict widespread, low-level NO3-concentrations. This evidence supports that in addition to downward transport, there is also a significant outward transport of groundwater NO3- in the drinking water aquifer to areas outside the range of sources. Results indicate that the deeper aquifers are potentially acting as a reservoir that is not only deeper, but also covers a larger geographical area, than the reservoir formed by the shallow aquifers. Results are of interest to agencies that regulate surface water and drinking water sources impacted by the effects of legacy NO3- sources. Additionally, the results can provide guidance on factors affecting the point-level variability of groundwater NO3- and areas where monitoring is needed to reduce uncertainty. Lastly, LUR-BME predictions can be integrated into surface water models for more accurate management of non-point sources of nitrogen.

Agricultural Groundwater Demands in the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, M. W.; Parthasarathy, V.; Etienne, E.; Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

In the conterminous United States (CONUS), over 40% of water consumed for irrigation, livestock and domestic water is sourced from groundwater. The late 20th century and 21st century saw an expansion in irrigated agriculture across the CONUS that was accompanied by increased pumping of groundwater. Groundwater is typically used to mitigate impacts of drought on surface water supplies enabling water demands to be met as well as to augment sparse surface water resources in arid regions or where surface water availability is highly variable temporally and/or spatially. A Demand Sensitive Drought Index (DSDI) is used to examine the impacts of agricultural water needs on groundwater in the CONUS. The DSDI accounts for agricultural water deficits driven by low precipitation, high agricultural water demand, or a combination of both. Changes in groundwater levels relative to agricultural water deficits are characterized relative to precipitation during the growing season and winter precipitation. In several key irrigated agricultural regions in the CONUS, long-term trends in groundwater levels appear to reflect prolonged periods of surface water deficits resulting from land use and associated unsustainable water demands. These areas are subsequent unable to recover from persistent states of agricultural drought. Conversely, reductions in agricultural water demands for crops do not necessarily lead to immediate recovery of groundwater levels due to the demand for groundwater in other sectors. Calls to establish or reform groundwater policies have recently been made in an effort to achieve holistic groundwater management strategies that consider the human demands on both surface water and groundwater. There is a need for relevant groundwater policies to ensure that water demands are adequately managed across sectors without unsustainably depleting groundwater resources and to ensure efficient economic activity.

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea, resulting in overestimated North Atlantic SST variability. Concerning the influence of locally (isotropically) increased resolution, the ENSO pattern and index statistics improve significantly with higher resolution around the equator, illustrating the potential of the novel unstructured-mesh method for global climate modeling.

Analysis of control system responses for aircraft stability and efficient numerical techniques for real-time simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroe, Gabriela; Andrei, Irina-Carmen; Frunzulica, Florin

2017-01-01

The objectives of this paper are the study and the implementation of both aerodynamic and propulsion models, as linear interpolations using look-up tables in a database. The aerodynamic and propulsion dependencies on state and control variable have been described by analytic polynomial models. Some simplifying hypotheses were made in the development of the nonlinear aircraft simulations. The choice of a certain technique to use depends on the desired accuracy of the solution and the computational effort to be expended. Each nonlinear simulation includes the full nonlinear dynamics of the bare airframe, with a scaled direct connection from pilot inputs to control surface deflections to provide adequate pilot control. The engine power dynamic response was modeled with an additional state equation as first order lag in the actual power level response to commanded power level was computed as a function of throttle position. The number of control inputs and engine power states varied depending on the number of control surfaces and aircraft engines. The set of coupled, nonlinear, first-order ordinary differential equations that comprise the simulation model can be represented by the vector differential equation. A linear time-invariant (LTI) system representing aircraft dynamics for small perturbations about a reference trim condition is given by the state and output equations present. The gradients are obtained numerically by perturbing each state and control input independently and recording the changes in the trimmed state and output equations. This is done using the numerical technique of central finite differences, including the perturbations of the state and control variables. For a reference trim condition of straight and level flight, linearization results in two decoupled sets of linear, constant-coefficient differential equations for longitudinal and lateral / directional motion. The linearization is valid for small perturbations about the reference trim condition. Experimental aerodynamic and thrust data are used to model the applied aerodynamic and propulsion forces and moments for arbitrary states and controls. There is no closed form solution to such problems, so the equations must be solved using numerical integration. Techniques for solving this initial value problem for ordinary differential equations are employed to obtain approximate solutions at discrete points along the aircraft state trajectory.

An extinction/reignition dynamic method for turbulent combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knaus, Robert; Pantano, Carlos

2011-11-01

Quasi-randomly distributed locations of high strain in turbulent combustion can cause a nonpremixed or partially premixed flame to develop local regions of extinction called ``flame holes''. The presence and extent of these holes can increase certain pollutants and reduce the amount of fuel burned. Accurately modeling the dynamics of these interacting regions can improve the accuracy of combustion simulations by effectively incorporating finite-rate chemistry effects. In the proposed method, the flame hole state is characterized by a progress variable that nominally exists on the stoichiometric surface. The evolution of this field is governed by a partial-differential equation embedded in the time-dependent two-manifold of the flame surface. This equation includes advection, propagation, and flame hole formation (flame hole healing or collapse is accounted by propagation naturally). We present a computational algorithm that solves this equation by embedding it in the usual three-dimensional space. A piece-wise parabolic WENO scheme combined with a compression algorithm are used to evolve the flame hole progress variable. A key aspect of the method is the extension of the surface data to the three-dimensional space in an efficient manner. We present results of this method applied to canonical turbulent combusting flows where the flame holes interact and describe their statistics.

A boundary integral approach in primitive variables for free surface flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casciola, C.; Piva, R.

The boundary integral formulation, very efficient for free surface potential flows, was considered for its possible extension to rotational flows either inviscid or viscous. We first analyze a general formulation for unsteady Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables, which reduces to a representation for the Euler equations in the limiting case of Reynolds infinity. A first simplified model for rotational flows, obtained by decoupling kinematics and dynamics, reduces the integral equations to a known kinematical form whose mathematical and numerical properties have been studied. The dynamics equations to complete the model are obtained for the free surface and the wake. A simple and efficient scheme for the study of the non linear evolution of the wave system and its interaction with the body wake is presented. A steady state version for the calculation of the wave resistance is also reported. A second model was proposed for the simulation of rotational separated regions, by coupling the integral equations in velocity with an integral equation for the vorticity at the body boundary. The same procedure may be extended to include the diffusion of the vorticity in the flowfield. The vortex shedding from a cylindrical body in unsteady motion is discussed, as a first application of the model.

Climatological Downscaling and Evaluation of AGRMET Precipitation Analyses Over the Continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Eylander, J. B.; Daly, C.; Tian, Y.; Zeng, J.

2007-05-01

The spatially distributed application of a land surface model (LSM) over a region of interest requires the application of similarly distributed precipitation fields that can be derived from various sources, including surface gauge networks, surface-based radar, and orbital platforms. The spatial variability of precipitation influences the spatial organization of soil temperature and moisture states and, consequently, the spatial variability of land- atmosphere fluxes. The accuracy of spatially-distributed precipitation fields can contribute significantly to the uncertainty of model-based hydrological states and fluxes at the land surface. Collaborations between the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), NASA, and Oregon State University have led to improvements in the processing of meteorological forcing inputs for the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS; Kumar et al. 2006), a sophisticated framework for LSM operation and model coupling experiments. Efforts at AFWA toward the production of surface hydrometeorological products are currently in transition from the legacy Agricultural Meteorology modeling system (AGRMET) to use of the LIS framework and procedures. Recent enhancements to meteorological input processing for application to land surface models in LIS include the assimilation of climate-based information for the spatial interpolation and downscaling of precipitation fields. Climatological information included in the LIS-based downscaling procedure for North America is provided by a monthly high-resolution PRISM (Daly et al. 1994, 2002; Daly 2006) dataset based on a 30-year analysis period. The combination of these sources and methods attempts to address the strengths and weaknesses of available legacy products, objective interpolation methods, and the PRISM knowledge-based methodology. All of these efforts are oriented on an operational need for timely estimation of spatial precipitation fields at adequate spatial resolution for customer dissemination and near-real-time simulations in regions of interest. This work focuses on value added to the AGRMET precipitation product by the inclusion of high-quality climatological information on a monthly time scale. The AGRMET method uses microwave-based satellite precipitation estimates from various polar-orbiting platforms (NOAA POES and DMSP), infrared-based estimates from geostationary platforms (GOES, METEOSAT, etc.), related cloud analysis products, and surface gauge observations in a complex and hierarchical blending process. Results from processing of the legacy AGRMET precipitation products over the U.S. using LIS-based methods for downscaling, both with and without climatological factors, are evaluated against high-resolution monthly analyses using the PRISM knowledge- based method (Daly et al. 2002). It is demonstrated that the incorporation of climatological information in a downscaling procedure can significantly enhance the accuracy, and potential utility, of AFWA precipitation products for military and civilian customer applications.

Estimating variations in global surface water storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2016-12-01

Arguably, the most dramatic advances attributable to remote sensing in the hydrologic sciences have involved the extension of knowledge about processes and state variables from the scale of field experiments to regions, continents, and the entire Earth. However, despite the availability of information about total terrestrial water storage over large areas provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we still have remarkably little knowledge of the magnitude of freshwater stored at and near the land surface, and its temporal scales of variation. This is especially true with respect to freshwater storage in natural lakes and manmade reservoirs. Estimates of the amount of water that could be stored in artificial reservoirs are in the neighborhood of 15% of the mean annual runoff from the continents or around 7-8000 km3. However, while global reservoir storage was increasing through about 1980 due to filling of new reservoirs constructed in the second half of the 20th century, it is not even known whether aggregate usable reservoir storage is increasing or decreasing, due to sedimentation effects. With the advent of satellite altimeters (mostly intended to measure ocean surface topography and or the surface elevation of glaciers and ice sheets), along with improved methods for estimating space-time variations in the extent of surface waters, new opportunities have arisen to piece together estimates of storage variations of fractions approaching one-half of the global surface water storage, for periods approaching two decades in some cases. Although this ability is nascent, it offers encouragement that, with the launch of the planned Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission in 2020, which has as a specific objective the measurement of surface water variations, climate-scale understanding of this source of variability in Earth's surface water balance may be at hand. I discuss specific examples of the technology and resulting data sets, including successes and failures.

Observed variability in the upper layers at the Equator, 90°E in the Indian Ocean during 2001-2008, 1: zonal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Horii, T.; Masumoto, Y.; Mizuno, K.

2017-08-01

The observed variability of zonal currents (ZC) at the Equator, 90°E shows a strong seasonal cycle in the near-surface 40-350 m water column with periodic east-west reversals most pronounced at semiannual frequency. Superposed on this, a strong intraseasonal variability of 30-90 day periodicity is also prominently seen in the near-surface layer (40-80 m) almost throughout the year with the only exception of February-March. An eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is present in the depth range of 80-160 m during March-April and October-November. The observed intraseasonal variability in the near-surface layer is primarily determined by the equatorial zonal westerly wind bursts (WWBs) through local frictional coupling between the zonal flow in the surface layer and surface zonal winds and shows large interannual variability. The eastward flowing EUC maintained by the ZPG set up by the east-west slope of the thermocline remotely controlled by the zonal wind (ZW) and zonally propagating wave fields also shows significant interannual variability. This observed variability on interannual time scales appears to be controlled by the corresponding variability in the alongshore winds off the Somalia coast during the preceding boreal winter, the ZW field along the equator, and the associated zonally propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. The salinity induced vertical stratification observed in the near-surface layer through barrier layer thickness (BLT) effects also shows a significant influence on the ZC field on intraseasonal time scale. Interestingly, among all the 8 years (2001-2008), relatively weaker annual cycle is seen in both ZC in the 40-350 m water column and boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) only during 2001 and 2008 along the equator caused through propagating wave dynamics.

Importance of Preserving Cross-correlation in developing Statistically Downscaled Climate Forcings and in estimating Land-surface Fluxes and States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das Bhowmik, R.; Arumugam, S.

2015-12-01

Multivariate downscaling techniques exhibited superiority over univariate regression schemes in terms of preserving cross-correlations between multiple variables- precipitation and temperature - from GCMs. This study focuses on two aspects: (a) develop an analytical solutions on estimating biases in cross-correlations from univariate downscaling approaches and (b) quantify the uncertainty in land-surface states and fluxes due to biases in cross-correlations in downscaled climate forcings. Both these aspects are evaluated using climate forcings available from both historical climate simulations and CMIP5 hindcasts over the entire US. The analytical solution basically relates the univariate regression parameters, co-efficient of determination of regression and the co-variance ratio between GCM and downscaled values. The analytical solutions are compared with the downscaled univariate forcings by choosing the desired p-value (Type-1 error) in preserving the observed cross-correlation. . For quantifying the impacts of biases on cross-correlation on estimating streamflow and groundwater, we corrupt the downscaled climate forcings with different cross-correlation structure.

Variable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, 1994-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adusumilli, Susheel; Fricker, Helen Amanda; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Padman, Laurie; Paolo, Fernando S.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.

2018-05-01

We have constructed 23-year (1994-2016) time series of Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice-shelf height change using data from four satellite radar altimeters (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, and CryoSat-2). Combining these time series with output from atmospheric and firn models, we partitioned the total height-change signal into contributions from varying surface mass balance, firn state, ice dynamics, and basal mass balance. On the Bellingshausen coast of the AP, ice shelves lost 84 ± 34 Gt a-1 to basal melting, compared to contributions of 50 ± 7 Gt a-1 from surface mass balance and ice dynamics. Net basal melting on the Weddell coast was 51 ± 71 Gt a-1. Recent changes in ice-shelf height include increases over major AP ice shelves driven by changes in firn state. Basal melt rates near Bawden Ice Rise, a major pinning point of Larsen C Ice Shelf, showed large increases, potentially leading to substantial loss of buttressing if sustained.

Surface-bonded ionic liquid stationary phases in high-performance liquid chromatography--a review.

PubMed

Pino, Verónica; Afonso, Ana M

2012-02-10

Ionic liquids (ILs) are a class of ionic, nonmolecular solvents which remain in liquid state at temperatures below 100°C. ILs possess a variety of properties including low to negligible vapor pressure, high thermal stability, miscibility with water or a variety of organic solvents, and variable viscosity. IL-modified silica as novel high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) stationary phases have attracted considerable attention for their differential behavior and low free-silanol activity. Indeed, around 21 surface-confined ionic liquids (SCIL) stationary phases have been developed in the last six years. Their chromatographic behavior has been studied, and, despite the presence of a positive charge on the stationary phase, they showed considerable promise for the separation of neutral solutes (not only basic analytes), when operated in reversed phase mode. This aspect points to the potential for truly multimodal stationary phases. This review attempts to summarize the state-of-the-art about SCIL phases including their preparation, chromatographic behavior, and analytical performance. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation for treatment of mesoscale model error: A real-data study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Zhang, Fuqing; Nielsen-Gammon, John W.

2010-04-01

This study explores the treatment of model error and uncertainties through simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the simulation of a 2006 air pollution event over the greater Houston area during the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS-II). Two parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer parameterization associated with large model sensitivities are combined with standard prognostic variables in an augmented state vector to be continuously updated through assimilation of wind profiler observations. It is found that forecasts of the atmosphere with EnKF/SSPE are markedly improved over experiments with no state and/or parameter estimation. More specifically, the EnKF/SSPE is shown to help alleviate a near-surface cold bias and to alter the momentum mixing in the boundary layer to produce more realistic wind profiles.

Estimates of diffuse phosphorus sources in surface waters of the United States using a spatially referenced watershed model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, R.B.; Smith, R.A.; Schwarz, G.E.

2004-01-01

The statistical watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) was used to estimate the sources and transport of total phosphorus (TP) in surface waters of the United States. We calibrated the model using stream measurements of TP from 336 watersheds of mixed land use and spatial data on topography, soils, stream hydrography, and land use (agriculture, forest, shrub/grass, urban). The model explained 87% of the spatial variability in log transformed stream TP flux (kg yr-1). Predictions of stream yield (kg ha-1 yr-1) were typically within 45% of the observed values at the monitoring sites. The model identified appreciable effects of soils, streams, and reservoirs on TP transport, The estimated aquatic rates of phosphorus removal declined with increasing stream size and rates of water flushing in reservoirs (i.e. areal hydraulic loads). A phosphorus budget for the 2.9 million km2 Mississippi River Basin provides a detailed accounting of TP delivery to streams, the removal of TP in surface waters, and the stream export of TP from major interior watersheds for sources associated with each land-use type. ?? US Government 2004.

The energy balance of an urban area: Examining temporal and spatial variability through measurements, remote sensing and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Offerle, Brian

Urban environmental problems related to air quality, thermal stress, issues of water demand and quality, all of which are linked directly or indirectly to urban climate, are emerging as major environmental concerns at the start of the 21st century. Thus there are compelling social, political and economic, and scientific reasons that make the study and understanding of the fundamental causes of urban climates critically important. This research addresses these topics through an intensive study of the surface energy balance of Lodz, Poland. The research examines the temporal variability in long-term measurements of urban surface-atmosphere exchange at a downtown location and the spatial variability of this exchange over distinctly different neighborhoods using shorter-term observations. These observations provide the basis for an evaluation of surface energy balance models. Monthly patterns in energy exchange are consistent from year-to-year with variability determined by net radiation and the timing and amount of precipitation. Spatial variability can be determined from plan area fractions of vegetation and impervious surface, though heat storage exerts a strong control on shorter term variability of energy exchange, within and between locations in an urban area. Anthropogenic heat fluxes provide most of the energy driving surface-atmosphere exchange in winter, From a modeling perspective, sensible heat fluxes can be reliably determined from radiometrically sensed surface temperatures and spatially representative surface-atmosphere exchange in an urban area can be determined from satellite remote sensing products. Models of the urban surface energy balance showed good agreement with mean values of energy exchange and under most conditions represented the temporal variability due to synoptic and shorter time scale forcing well.

Indispensable finite time corrections for Fokker-Planck equations from time series data.

PubMed

Ragwitz, M; Kantz, H

2001-12-17

The reconstruction of Fokker-Planck equations from observed time series data suffers strongly from finite sampling rates. We show that previously published results are degraded considerably by such effects. We present correction terms which yield a robust estimation of the diffusion terms, together with a novel method for one-dimensional problems. We apply these methods to time series data of local surface wind velocities, where the dependence of the diffusion constant on the state variable shows a different behavior than previously suggested.

Newtonian Nudging For A Richards Equation-based Distributed Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Putti, M.; Verbunt, M.

In this study a relatively simple data assimilation method has been implemented in a relatively complex hydrological model. The data assimilation technique is Newtonian relaxation or nudging, in which model variables are driven towards observations by a forcing term added to the model equations. The forcing term is proportional to the difference between simulation and observation (relaxation component) and contains four-dimensional weighting functions that can incorporate prior knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability and characteristic scales of the state variable(s) being assimilated. The numerical model couples a three-dimensional finite element Richards equation solver for variably saturated porous media and a finite difference diffusion wave approximation based on digital elevation data for surface water dynamics. We describe the implementation of the data assimilation algorithm for the coupled model and report on the numerical and hydrological performance of the resulting assimila- tion scheme. Nudging is shown to be successful in improving the hydrological sim- ulation results, and it introduces little computational cost, in terms of CPU and other numerical aspects of the model's behavior, in some cases even improving numerical performance compared to model runs without nudging. We also examine the sensitiv- ity of the model to nudging term parameters including the spatio-temporal influence coefficients in the weighting functions. Overall the nudging algorithm is quite flexi- ble, for instance in dealing with concurrent observation datasets, gridded or scattered data, and different state variables, and the implementation presented here can be read- ily extended to any features not already incorporated. Moreover the nudging code and tests can serve as a basis for implementation of more sophisticated data assimilation techniques in a Richards equation-based hydrological model.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Ride comfort control in large flexible aircraft. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, M. E.

1971-01-01

The problem of ameliorating the discomfort of passengers on a large air transport subject to flight disturbances is examined. The longitudinal dynamics of the aircraft, including effects of body flexing, are developed in terms of linear, constant coefficient differential equations in state variables. A cost functional, penalizing the rigid body displacements and flexure accelerations over the surface of the aircraft is formulated as a quadratic form. The resulting control problem, to minimize the cost subject to the state equation constraints, is of a class whose solutions are well known. The feedback gains for the optimal controller are calculated digitally, and the resulting autopilot is simulated on an analog computer and its performance evaluated.

Exo-polygalacturonase production by Bacillus subtilis CM5 in solid state fermentation using cassava bagasse

PubMed Central

Swain, Manas R.; Kar, Shaktimay; Ray, Ramesh C.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to study the effect of Bacillus subtilis CM5 in solid state fermentation using cassava bagasse for production of exo-polygalacturonase (exo-PG). Response surface methodology was used to evaluate the effect of four main variables, i.e. incubation period, initial medium pH, moisture holding capacity (MHC) and incubation temperature on enzyme production. A full factorial Central Composite Design was applied to study these main factors that affected exo-PG production. The experimental results showed that the optimum incubation period, pH, MHC and temperature were 6 days, 7.0, 70% and 50°C, respectively for optimum exo-PG production. PMID:24031409

Detection of deep water formation from remote sensing chlorophyll in the NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardello, Raffaele; Bahamon, Nixon; Ahumada, Miguel-Angel; Martin, Adrian; Henson, Stephanie

2015-04-01

The Northwestern Mediterranean Sea is one of the few regions in the world where Deep Water Formation (DWF) occurs. During wintertime cold and dry winds that typically occur in strong bursts lasting a few days, are able to erode the near-surface stability over this area, exposing the weakly stratified underwaters and initiate a phase of violent mixing and deep convection. DWF is not a steady-state process that recurs every year. Variations in wind stress and heat flux over the winter can induce a marked interannual variability: during some years the process is specially intense and completely absent during others. The extent of the area over which DWF occurs is also uncertain. The interannual variability of the DWF process is also associated to the variability in the seasonal phytoplankton dynamics over the area. The extent of the vertical mixing set the total amount of nutrients available for the phytoplankton during the following spring bloom. However, before the bloom, when deep convection is still active, surface chlorophyll (an index for phytoplankton biomass) is vertically diluted showing low surface concentration. The occurrence of these patches of anomalously low chlorophyll concentration can, in principle, be associated to the presence of active deep convection. In this study we investigate the possibility of exploiting such association in order to quantify the duration of deep convection and the extent of the area over which it occurs. These goals will be achieved through the analysis of remote sensing chlorophyll data and in-situ Argo-floats profiles.

Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

Selenium in irrigated agricultural areas of the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, B.T.; Clark, M.L.

1997-01-01

A logistic regression model was developed to predict the likelihood that Se exceeds the USEPA chronic criterion for aquatic life (5 ??g/L) in irrigated agricultural areas of the western USA. Preliminary analysis of explanatory variables used in the model indicated that surface-water Se concentration increased with increasing dissolved solids (DS) concentration and with the presence of Upper Cretaceous, mainly marine sediment. The presence or absence of Cretaceous sediment was the major variable affecting Se concentration in surface-water samples from the National Irrigation Water Quality Program. Median Se concentration was 14 ??g/L in samples from areas underlain by Cretaceous sediments and < 1 ??g/L in samples from areas underlain by non-Cretaceous sediments. Wilcoxon rank sum tests indicated that elevated Se concentrations in samples from areas with Cretaceous sediments, irrigated areas, and from closed lakes and ponds were statistically significant. Spearman correlations indicated that Se was positively correlated with a binary geology variable (0.64) and DS (0.45). Logistic regression models indicated that the concentration of Se in surface water was almost certain to exceed the Environmental Protection Agency aquatic-life chronic criterion of 5 ??g/L when DS was greater than 3000 mg/L in areas with Cretaceous sediments. The 'best' logistic regression model correctly predicted Se exceedances and nonexceedances 84.4% of the time, and model sensitivity was 80.7%. A regional map of Cretaceous sediment showed the location of potential problem areas. The map and logistic regression model are tools that can be used to determine the potential for Se contamination of irrigated agricultural areas in the western USA.

Diagnosing the influence of model structure on the simulation of water, energy and carbon fluxes on bark beetle infested forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Brooks, P. D.; Reed, D. E.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Barnard, H. R.; Hu, J.

2011-12-01

Forest dynamics induced by insect infestation can have a significant, local impact on plant physiological regulation of water, energy and carbon fluxes. Rapid mortality succeeded by more gradually varying land cover changes are presently thought to initiate a cascade of changes to water, energy and carbon budgets at the forest stand scale. Initial model sensitivity results have suggested very strong changes in land-atmosphere exchanges of these variables. Specifically, model results from the Noah land surface model, a relatively simple model, have suggested that loss of transpiration function may result in a nearly 50% increase in seasonal soil moisture values and similar increases in runoff production for locations in the central Rocky Mountains. However, differing model structures, such as the representation of plant canopy architecture, snowpack dynamics, dynamic vegetation and hillslope hydrologic processes, may significantly confound the synthesis of results from different modeling systems. We assess the performance of new suite of model simulations from three different land surface models of differing model structures and complexity levels against a comprehensive set of field observations of land surface flux and state variables. The focus of the analysis is in diagnosing how model structure influences changes in energy, water and carbon budget partitioning prior to and following insect infestation. Specific emphasis in this presentation is placed on verifying variables that characterize top of canopy and within canopy energy and water fluxes. We conclude the presentation with a set of recommendations about the advantages and disadvantages of various model structures in their simulation of insect driven forest dynamics.

The Kuroshio Extension low-frequency variability analyzed with altimeter data through an ad hoc composite index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierini, Stefano; Gentile, Vittorio; de Ruggiero, Paola; Pietranera, Luca

2017-04-01

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) low-frequency variability (LFV) is analyzed with the satellite altimeter data distributed by AVISO from January 1993 to November 2015 through a new ad hoc composite index [1] that links the mean latitudinal position L of the KE jet and an integrated wavelet amplitude A measuring the high-frequency variability (HFV) of the KE path. This approach allows one to follow the KE evolution as an orbit in the (L,A) plane, as typically done in dynamical systems theory. Three intervals, I1 (1993-1998), I2 (1998-2006) and I3 (2006-November 2015) are separately analyzed also with sea surface height (SSH) maps. In I1 and I3, L and A are mostly anti-correlated and a recharging phase (characterized by a weak convoluted jet experiencing a rapid increase of the HFV) begins when negative SSH anomalies, remotely generated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, reach the KE region. On the other hand, in I2 the KE evolution is described by a hysteresis loop: this starts with a weak jet state followed by a recharging phase leading, in turn, to a persistent two-meander state, to its progressive and rapid erosion and, eventually, to the reestablishment of a weak jet state. This loop is found to correspond quite closely to the highly nonlinear intrinsic relaxation oscillation obtained in numerical process studies [1,2]. This supports the hypothesis that the KE LFV may have been controlled, during I2, by an intrinsic oceanic mode of variability. [1] Pierini S., 2015. J. Climate, 28, 5873-5881. [2] Pierini S., 2006. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 1605-1625.

Characterization of Shrubland-Atmosphere Interactions through Use of the Eddy Covariance Method, Distributed Footprint Sampling, and Imagery from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Vivoni, E. R.; Pierini, N.; Robles-Morua, A.; Rango, A.; Laliberte, A.; Saripalli, S.

2012-12-01

Ecohydrological dynamics can be evaluated from field observations of land-atmosphere states and fluxes, including water, carbon, and energy exchanges measured through the eddy covariance method. In heterogeneous landscapes, the representativeness of these measurements is not well understood due to the variable nature of the sampling footprint and the mixture of underlying herbaceous, shrub, and soil patches. In this study, we integrate new field techniques to understand how ecosystem surface states are related to turbulent fluxes in two different semiarid shrubland settings in the Jornada (New Mexico) and Santa Rita (Arizona) Experimental Ranges. The two sites are characteristic of Chihuahuan (NM) and Sonoran (AZ) Desert mixed-shrub communities resulting from woody plant encroachment into grassland areas. In each study site, we deployed continuous soil moisture and soil temperature profile observations at twenty sites around an eddy covariance tower after local footprint estimation revealed the optimal sensor network design. We then characterized the tower footprint through terrain and vegetation analyses derived at high resolution (<1 m) from imagery obtained from a fixed-wing and rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). Our analysis focuses on the summertime land-atmosphere states and fluxes during which each ecosystem responded differentially to the North American monsoon. We found that vegetation heterogeneity induces spatial differences in soil moisture and temperature that are important to capture when relating these states to the eddy covariance flux measurements. Spatial distributions of surface states at different depths reveal intricate patterns linked to vegetation cover that vary between the two sites. Furthermore, single site measurements at the tower are insufficient to capture the footprint conditions and their influence on turbulent fluxes. We also discuss techniques for aggregating the surface states based upon the vegetation and soil classifications obtained from the high-resolution aerial imagery. Overall, the integration of the different techniques yielded new insight into the spatiotemporal variation of land surface states and their relation to sensible and latent heat fluxes in two shrubland sites, with the potential application in other ecosystems worldwide.

Theory of the reaction dynamics of small molecules on metal surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackson, Bret

The objective of this project has been to develop realistic theoretical models for gas-surface interactions, with a focus on processes important in heterogeneous catalysis. The dissociative chemisorption of a molecule on a metal is a key step in many catalyzed reactions, and is often the rate-limiting step. We have explored the dissociative chemisorption of H 2, H 2O and CH 4 on a variety of metal surfaces. Most recently, our extensive studies of methane dissociation on Ni and Pt surfaces have fully elucidated its dependence on translational energy, vibrational state and surface temperature, providing the first accurate comparisons with experimentalmore » data. We have explored Eley-Rideal and hot atom reactions of H atoms with H- and C-covered metal surfaces. H atom interactions with graphite have also been explored, including both sticking and Eley-Rideal recombination processes. Again, our methods made it possible to explain several experiments studying these reactions. The sticking of atoms on metal surfaces has also been studied. To help elucidate the experiments that study these processes, we examine how the reaction dynamics depend upon the nature of the molecule-metal interaction, as well as experimental variables such as substrate temperature, beam energy, angle of impact, and the internal states of the molecules. Electronic structure methods based on Density Functional Theory are used to compute each molecule-metal potential energy surface. Both time-dependent quantum scattering techniques and quasi-classical methods are used to examine the reaction or scattering dynamics. Much of our effort has been directed towards developing improved quantum methods that can accurately describe reactions, as well as include the effects of substrate temperature (lattice vibration).« less

A monthly global paleo-reanalysis of the atmosphere from 1600 to 2005 for studying past climatic variations

PubMed Central

Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Bhend, Jonas; Brugnara, Yuri

2017-01-01

Climatic variations at decadal scales such as phases of accelerated warming or weak monsoons have profound effects on society and economy. Studying these variations requires insights from the past. However, most current reconstructions provide either time series or fields of regional surface climate, which limit our understanding of the underlying dynamics. Here, we present the first monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period 1600 to 2005. Over land, instrumental temperature and surface pressure observations, temperature indices derived from historical documents and climate sensitive tree-ring measurements were assimilated into an atmospheric general circulation model ensemble using a Kalman filtering technique. This data set combines the advantage of traditional reconstruction methods of being as close as possible to observations with the advantage of climate models of being physically consistent and having 3-dimensional information about the state of the atmosphere for various variables and at all points in time. In contrast to most statistical reconstructions, centennial variability stems from the climate model and its forcings, no stationarity assumptions are made and error estimates are provided. PMID:28585926

Characteristics of shear damage for 60Sn-40Pb solder material

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, H.E.; Chow, C.L.; Wei, Y.

This paper presents an investigation of the development of a continuum damage model capable of accurately analyzing shear damage in 60Sn-40Pb solder material. Based on the theory of damage mechanics, an internal state variable known as the damage variable is introduced to characterize material degradation caused by the change of material microstructures under load. A damage surface in stress space is proposed to quantify damage initiation and its successive expanding surfaces to represent damage hardening. With the aid of irreversible thermodynamics, the damage-coupled constitutive equations and the damage evolution equations are established. A failure criterion is proposed based on themore » accumulation of overall damage in the material. The damage model is implemented in a general purpose finite element program ABAQUS through its user-defined material subroutine UMAT. The program is applied to predict shear deformation in a notched specimen. The predicted failure mode and maximum load agree well with those measured experimentally. The effect of finite element meshing on the numerical results is also examined and discussed.« less

Interannual variability of the annual cycle of the surface temperature in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis over the Northern Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The seasonal cycle of the surface temperature in the Northern Atlantic was investigated with the aim of studying interannual variability. To know how seasonal cycle is influenced by main climate modes could be a powerful tool to improve our seasonal prediction abilities. Data consist of daily temperatures at 2 metres taken from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglic_UK) (www.cru.uea.ac.uk) corresponding to the region from 90 W to 90 E longitude and from 88.5 N to 21.9 N latitude and for the last 44 years. Daily data were adjusted to the following expression for each year: y=a+b*sin(((2*PI)/d)x+c) The amplitude of the wave and the first inflexion point were used as indicators of the seasonal cycle. Results show a negative correlation between the NAO index and the amplitude over Northern Europe and over Mexico and a positive correlation over Northern United States and Canada. They also show a negative correlation between the NAO index and the first inflexion point over Northern Europe.

Tannase production by Penicillium purpurogenum PAF6 in solid state fermentation of tannin-rich plant residues following OVAT and RSM.

PubMed

Jana, Arijit; Maity, Chiranjit; Halder, Suman Kumar; Mondal, Keshab Chandra; Pati, Bikash Ranjan; Mohapatra, Pradeep Kumar Das

2012-07-01

Tannase production by newly isolated Penicillium purpurogenum PAF6 was investigated by 'one variable at a time' (OVAT) approach followed by response surface methodology (RSM). Tannin-rich plant residues were used as supporting solid substrate and sole carbon source and, among them, tamarind seed was found to be the most favorable substrate than haritaki, pomegranate, tea leaf waste and arjun fruit. Physicochemical parameters were initially optimized using OVAT methodology and some important factors like incubation time, incubation temperature, substrate:moisture ratio as well as carbon, nitrogen and phosphate concentrations were verified with Box-Behken design of response surface methodology. Phosphate source, nitrogen source and temperature were found as the most favorable variables in the maximization of production. Tannase production was enhanced from 1.536 U/g to 5.784 U/g using tamarind seed OVAT optimization and further enhancement up to 6.15 U/g following RSM. An overall 3.76- and 4.0-fold increases in tannase production were achieved in OVAT and RSM, respectively.

Hindcast of water availability in regional aquifer systems using MODFLOW Farm Process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Phillips, Steven P.

2015-01-01

Coupled groundwater and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle can be simulated by the Farm Process for MODFLOW (MF-FMP) in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas and aquifer-storage and recovery systems. MF-FMP is being applied to three productive agricultural regions of different scale in the State of California, USA, to assess the availability of water and the impacts of alternative management decisions. Hindcast simulations are conducted for similar periods from the 1960s to near recent times. Historical groundwater pumpage is mostly unknown in one region (Central Valley) and is estimated by MF-FMP. In another region (Pajaro Valley), recorded pumpage is used to calibrate model-estimated pumpage. Multiple types of observations are used to estimate uncertain parameters, such as hydraulic, land-use, and farm properties. MF-FMP simulates how climate variability and water-import availability affect water demand and supply. MF-FMP can be used to predict water availability based on anticipated changes in anthropogenic or natural water demands. Keywords groundwater; surface-water; irrigation; water availability; response to climate variability/change

Surface vapor conductance derived from the ETRHEQ: Dependence on environmental variables and similarity to Oren's stomatal stress model for vapor pressure deficit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvucci, G.; Rigden, A. J.

2015-12-01

Daily time series of evapotranspiration and surface conductance to water vapor were estimated using the ETRHEQ method (Evapotranspiration from Relative Humidity at Equilibrium). ETRHEQ has been previously compared with ameriflux site-level measurements of ET at daily and seasonal time scales, with watershed water balance estimates, and with various benchmark ET data sets. The ETRHEQ method uses meteorological data collected at common weather stations and estimates the surface conductance by minimizing the vertical variance of the calculated relative humidity profile averaged over the day. The key advantage of the ETRHEQ method is that it does not require knowledge of the surface state (soil moisture, stomatal conductance, leaf are index, etc.) or site-specific calibration. The daily estimates of conductance from 229 weather stations for 53 years were analyzed for dependence on environmental variables known to impact stomatal conductance and soil diffusivity: surface temperature, surface vapor pressure deficit, solar radiation, antecedent precipitation (as a surrogate for soil moisture), and a seasonal vegetation greenness index. At each site the summertime (JJAS) conductance values estimated from ETRHEQ were fitted to a multiplicate Jarvis-type stress model. Functional dependence was not proscribed, but instead fitted using flexible piecewise-linear splines. The resulting stress functions reproduce the time series of conductance across a wide range of ecosystems and climates. The VPD stress term resembles that proposed by Oren (i.e., 1-m*log(VPD) ), with VPD measured in kilopascals. The equivalent value of m derived from our spline-fits at each station varied over a remarkably small range of 0.58 to 0.62, in agreement with Oren's original analysis based on leaf and tree-level measurements.

Competing contact processes in the Watts-Strogatz network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Marcin; Malarz, Krzysztof; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

2016-06-01

We investigate two competing contact processes on a set of Watts-Strogatz networks with the clustering coefficient tuned by rewiring. The base for network construction is one-dimensional chain of N sites, where each site i is directly linked to nodes labelled as i ± 1 and i ± 2. So initially, each node has the same degree k i = 4. The periodic boundary conditions are assumed as well. For each node i the links to sites i + 1 and i + 2 are rewired to two randomly selected nodes so far not-connected to node i. An increase of the rewiring probability q influences the nodes degree distribution and the network clusterization coefficient 𝓒. For given values of rewiring probability q the set 𝓝(q)={𝓝1,𝓝2,...,𝓝 M } of M networks is generated. The network's nodes are decorated with spin-like variables s i ∈ { S,D }. During simulation each S node having a D-site in its neighbourhood converts this neighbour from D to S state. Conversely, a node in D state having at least one neighbour also in state D-state converts all nearest-neighbours of this pair into D-state. The latter is realized with probability p. We plot the dependence of the nodes S final density n S T on initial nodes S fraction n S 0. Then, we construct the surface of the unstable fixed points in (𝓒, p, n S 0) space. The system evolves more often toward n S T for (𝓒, p, n S 0) points situated above this surface while starting simulation with (𝓒, p, n S 0) parameters situated below this surface leads system to n S T =0. The points on this surface correspond to such value of initial fraction n S * of S nodes (for fixed values 𝓒 and p) for which their final density is n S T=1/2.

An online tool for Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS): a Statistical-Dynamical Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.

2017-12-01

The Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS) is an online tool recently developed at Portland State University for operational agricultural drought forecasting. This is an integrated statistical-dynamical framework issuing probabilistic drought forecasts monthly for the lead times of 1, 2, and 3 months. The statistical drought forecasting method utilizes copula functions in order to condition the future soil moisture values on the antecedent states. Due to stochastic nature of land surface properties, the antecedent soil moisture states are uncertain; therefore, data assimilation system based on Particle Filtering (PF) is employed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the initial condition of the land state, i.e. soil moisture. PF assimilates the satellite soil moisture data to Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model and ultimately updates the simulated soil moisture. The OPDFS builds on the NOAA's seasonal drought outlook by offering drought probabilities instead of qualitative ordinal categories and provides the user with the probability maps associated with a particular drought category. A retrospective assessment of the OPDFS showed that the forecasting of the 2012 Great Plains and 2014 California droughts were possible at least one month in advance. The OPDFS offers a timely assistance to water managers, stakeholders and decision-makers to develop resilience against uncertain upcoming droughts.

Assimilation of Altimeter Data into a Quasigeostrophic Model of the Gulf Stream System. Part 1; Dynamical Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Capotondi, Antonietta; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Holland, William R.

1995-01-01

The dynamical consequences of constraining a numerical model with sea surface height data have been investigated. The model used for this study is a quasigeostrophic model of the Gulf Stream region. The data that have been assimilated are maps of sea surface height obtained as the superposition of sea surface height variability deduced from the Geosat altimeter measurements and a mean field constructed from historical hydrographic data. The method used for assimilating the data is the nudging technique. Nudging has been implemented in such a way as to achieve a high degree of convergence of the surface model fields toward the observations. The assimilation of the surface data is thus equivalent to the prescription of a surface pressure boundary condition. The authors analyzed the mechanisms of the model adjustment and the characteristics of the resultant equilibrium state when the surface data are assimilated. Since the surface data are the superposition of a mean component and an eddy component, in order to understand the relative role of these two components in determining the characteristics of the final equilibrium state, two different experiments have been considered: in the first experiment only the climatological mean field is assimilated, while in the second experiment the total surface streamfunction field (mean plus eddies) has been used. It is shown that the model behavior in the presence of the surface data constraint can be conveniently described in terms of baroclinic Fofonoff modes. The prescribed mean component of the surface data acts as a 'surface topography' in this problem. Its presence determines a distortion of the geostrophic contours in the subsurface layers, thus constraining the mean circulation in those layers. The intensity of the mean flow is determined by the inflow/outflow conditions at the open boundaries, as well as by eddy forcing and dissipation.

Understanding Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Arctic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Nachamkin, J. E.

2017-12-01

Land-atmosphere interactions in Arctic region are examined using the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS©*) with the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). Initial land surface variables in COAMPS are interpolated from the real-time NASA Land Information System (LIS). The model simulations are configured for three nest grids with 27-9-3 km horizontal resolutions. The simulation period is set for October 2015 with 12-h data assimilation update cycle and 24-h integration length. The results are compared with those simulated without using LSM and evaluated with observations from ONR Sea State R/V Sikuliaq cruise and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). There are complex soil and vegetation types over the surface for simulation with LSM, compared to without LSM simulation. The results show substantial differences in surface heat fluxes between bulk surface scheme and LSM, which may have an important impact on the sea ice evolution over the Arctic region. Evaluations from station data show surface air temperature and relative humidity have smaller biases for simulation using LSM. Diurnal variation of land surface temperature, which is necessary for physical processes of land-atmosphere, is also better captured than without LSM.

Multi-beam laser altimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bufton, Jack L.; Harding, David J.; Ramos-Izquierdo, Luis

1993-01-01

Laser altimetry provides a high-resolution, high-accuracy method for measurement of the elevation and horizontal variability of Earth-surface topography. The basis of the measurement is the timing of the round-trip propagation of short-duration pulses of laser radiation between a spacecraft and the Earth's surface. Vertical resolution of the altimetry measurement is determined primarily by laser pulsewidth, surface-induced spreading in time of the reflected pulse, and the timing precision of the altimeter electronics. With conventional gain-switched pulses from solid-state lasers and sub-nsec resolution electronics, sub-meter vertical range resolution is possible from orbital attitudes of several hundred kilometers. Horizontal resolution is a function of laser beam footprint size at the surface and the spacing between successive laser pulses. Laser divergence angle and altimeter platform height above the surface determine the laser footprint size at the surface, while laser pulse repetition-rate, laser transmitter beam configuration, and altimeter platform velocity determine the space between successive laser pulses. Multiple laser transitters in a singlaltimeter instrument provide across-track and along-track coverage that can be used to construct a range image of the Earth's surface. Other aspects of the multi-beam laser altimeter are discussed.

The seasonality and geographic dependence of ENSO impacts on U.S. surface ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Li; Yu, Jin-Yi; Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.

2017-04-01

We examine the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on surface ozone abundance observed over the continental United States (U.S.) during 1993-2013. The monthly ozone decreases (increases) during El Niño (La Niña) years with amplitude up to 1.8 ppb per standard deviation of Niño 3.4 index. The largest ENSO influences occur over two southern U.S. regions during fall when the ENSO develops and over two western U.S. regions during the winter to spring after the ENSO decays. ENSO affects surface ozone via chemical processes during warm seasons in southern regions, where favorable meteorological conditions occur, but via dynamic transport during cold seasons in western regions, where the ENSO-induced circulation variations are large. The geographic dependence and seasonality of the ENSO impacts imply that regulations regarding air quality and its exceedance need to be adjusted for different seasons and U.S. regions to account for the ENSO-driven patterns in surface ozone.

Assessment of weaning indexes based on diaphragm activity in mechanically ventilated subjects after cardiovascular surgery. A pilot study

PubMed Central

Ortega, Isabel Cristina Muñoz; Valdivieso, Alher Mauricio Hernández; Lopez, Joan Francesc Alonso; Villanueva, Miguel Ángel Mañanas; Lopez, Luis Horacio Atehortúa

2017-01-01

Objective The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of surface electromyographic signal derived indexes for the prediction of weaning outcomes among mechanically ventilated subjects after cardiac surgery. Methods A sample of 10 postsurgical adult subjects who received cardiovascular surgery that did not meet the criteria for early extubation were included. Surface electromyographic signals from diaphragm and ventilatory variables were recorded during the weaning process, with the moment determined by the medical staff according to their expertise. Several indexes of respiratory muscle expenditure from surface electromyography using linear and non-linear processing techniques were evaluated. Two groups were compared: successfully and unsuccessfully weaned patients. Results The obtained indexes allow estimation of the diaphragm activity of each subject, showing a correlation between high expenditure and weaning test failure. Conclusion Surface electromyography is becoming a promising procedure for assessing the state of mechanically ventilated patients, even in complex situations such as those that involve a patient after cardiovascular surgery. PMID:28977261

Modelling episodic acidification of surface waters: the state of science.

PubMed

Eshleman, K N; Wigington, P J; Davies, T D; Tranter, M

1992-01-01

Field studies of chemical changes in surface waters associated with rainfall and snowmelt events have provided evidence of episodic acidification of lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Modelling these chemical changes is particularly challenging because of the variability associated with hydrological transport and chemical transformation processes in catchments. This paper provides a review of mathematical models that have been applied to the problem of episodic acidification. Several empirical approaches, including regression models, mixing models and time series models, support a strong hydrological interpretation of episodic acidification. Regional application of several models has suggested that acidic episodes (in which the acid neutralizing capacity becomes negative) are relatively common in surface waters in several regions of the US that receive acid deposition. Results from physically based models have suggested a lack of understanding of hydrological flowpaths, hydraulic residence times and biogeochemical reactions, particularly those involving aluminum. The ability to better predict episodic chemical responses of surface waters is thus dependent upon elucidation of these and other physical and chemical processes.

Effect of Surface Morphology and Magnetic Impurities on the Electronic Structure in Cobalt-Doped BaFe 2 As 2 Superconductors

DOE PAGES

Zou, Qiang; Wu, Zhiming; Fu, Mingming; ...

2017-02-03

Combined scanning tunneling microscopy, spectroscopy, and local barrier height (LBH) studies show that low-temperature-cleaved optimally doped Ba(Fe 1–xCo x) 2As 2 crystals with x = 0.06, with T c = 22 K, have complicated morphologies. Although the cleavage surface and hence the morphologies are variable, the superconducting gap maps show the same gap widths and nanometer size inhomogeneities irrelevant to the morphology. Based on the spectroscopy and LBH maps, the bright patches and dark stripes in the morphologies are identified as Ba- and As-dominated surface terminations, respectively. Magnetic impurities, possibly due to Co or Fe atoms, are believed to createmore » local in-gap state and, in addition, suppress the superconducting coherence peaks. Lastly, this study will clarify the confusion on the cleavage surface terminations of the Fe-based superconductors and its relation with the electronic structures.« less

Synergistic Utilization of Microwave Satellite Data and GRACE-Total Water Storage Anomaly for Improving Available Water Capacity Prediction in Lower Mekong Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, M.; Bolten, J. D.; Lakshmi, V.

2015-12-01

The Mekong River is the longest river in Southeast Asia and the world's eighth largest in discharge with draining an area of 795,000 km² from the eastern watershed of the Tibetan Plateau to the Mekong Delta including three provinces of China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam. This makes the life of people highly vulnerable to availability of the water resources as soil moisture is one of the major fundamental variables in global hydrological cycles. The day-to-day variability in soil moisture on field to global scales is an important quantity for early warning systems for events like flooding and drought. In addition to the extreme situations the accurate soil moisture retrieval are important for agricultural irrigation scheduling and water resource management. The present study proposes a method to determine the effective soil hydraulic parameters directly from information available for the soil moisture state from the recently launched SMAP (L-band) microwave remote sensing observations. Since the optimized parameters are based on the near surface soil moisture information, further constraints are applied during the numerical simulation through the assimilation of GRACE Total Water Storage (TWS) within the physically based land surface model. This work addresses the improvement of available water capacity as the soil hydraulic parameters are optimized through the utilization of satellite-retrieved near surface soil moisture. The initial ranges of soil hydraulic parameters are taken in correspondence with the values available from the literature based on FAO. The optimization process is divided into two steps: the state variable are optimized and the optimal parameter values are then transferred for retrieving soil moisture and streamflow. A homogeneous soil system is considered as the soil moisture from sensors such as AMSR-E/SMAP can only be retrieved for the top few centimeters of soil. To evaluate the performance of the system in helping improve simulation accuracy and whether they can be used to obtain soil moisture profiles at poorly gauged catchments the root mean square error (RMSE) and Mean Bias error (MBE) are used to measure the performance of the simulations.

Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, Yi

2014-11-24

DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observationsmore » and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include: 1) the distinctly different roles played by atmospheric dynamical processes in establishing surface temperature response to ENSO at tropics and extratropics (i.e., atmospheric dynamics disperses energy out of tropics during ENSO warm events and modulate surface temperature at mid-, high-latitudes through controlling downward longwave radiation); 2) the representations of ENSO-related temperature response in climate models fail to converge at the process-level particularly over extratropics (i.e., models produce the right temperature responses to ENSO but with wrong reasons); 3) water vapor feedback contributes substantially to the temperature anomalies found over U.S. during different phases of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which adds new insight to the traditional picture that cold/warm advective processes are the main drivers of local temperature responses to the NAM; 4) the overall land surface temperature biases in the latest NCAR model (CESM1) are caused by biases in surface albedo while the surface temperature biases over ocean are related to multiple factors including biases in model albedo, cloud and oceanic dynamics, and the temperature biases over different ocean basins are also induced by different process biases. These results provide a detailed guidance for process-level model turning and improvement, and thus contribute directly to the overall goal of reducing model uncertainty in projecting future changes in the Earth’s climate system, especially in the ENSO and AM variability.« less

A Systematic Evaluation of Noah-MP in Simulating Land-Atmosphere Energy, Water, and Carbon Exchanges Over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Niu, Guo-Yue; Xia, Youlong; Cai, Xitian; Zhang, Yinsheng; Ma, Yaoming; Fang, Yuanhao

2017-11-01

Accurate simulation of energy, water, and carbon fluxes exchanging between the land surface and the atmosphere is beneficial for improving terrestrial ecohydrological and climate predictions. We systematically assessed the Noah land surface model (LSM) with mutiparameterization options (Noah-MP) in simulating these fluxes and associated variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and snow cover fraction (SCF) against various reference products over 18 United States Geological Survey two-digital hydrological unit code regions of the continental United States (CONUS). In general, Noah-MP captures better the observed seasonal and interregional variability of net radiation, SCF, and runoff than other variables. With a dynamic vegetation model, it overestimates gross primary productivity by 40% and evapotranspiration (ET) by 22% over the whole CONUS domain; however, with a prescribed climatology of leaf area index, it greatly improves ET simulation with relative bias dropping to 4%. It accurately simulates regional TWS dynamics in most regions except those with large lakes or severely affected by irrigation and/or impoundments. Incorporating the lake water storage variations into the modeled TWS variations largely reduces the TWS simulation bias more obviously over the Great Lakes with model efficiency increasing from 0.18 to 0.76. Noah-MP simulates runoff well in most regions except an obvious overestimation (underestimation) in the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado (New England). Compared with North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) LSMs, Noah-MP shows a better ability to simulate runoff and a comparable skill in simulating Rn but a worse skill in simulating ET over most regions. This study suggests that future model developments should focus on improving the representations of vegetation dynamics, lake water storage dynamics, and human activities including irrigation and impoundments.

The role of atmospheric internal variability on the prediction skill of interannual North Pacific sea-surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narapusetty, Balachandrudu

2017-06-01

The sensitivity of the sea-surface temperature (SST) prediction skill to the atmospheric internal variability (weather noise) in the North Pacific (20∘-60∘N;120∘E-80∘W) on decadal timescales is examined using state-of-the-art Climate Forecasting System model version 2 (CFS) and a variation of CFS in an Interactive Ensemble approach (CFSIE), wherein six copies of atmospheric components with different perturbed initial states of CFS are coupled with the same ocean model by exchanging heat, momentum and fresh water fluxes dynamically at the air-sea interface throughout the model integrations. The CFSIE experiments are designed to reduce weather noise and using a few ten-year long forecasts this study shows that reduction in weather noise leads to lower SST forecast skill. To understand the pathways that cause the reduced SST prediction skill, two twenty-year long forecasts produced with CFS and CFSIE for 1980-2000 are analyzed for the ocean subsurface characteristics that influence SST due to the reduction in weather noise in the North Pacific. The heat budget analysis in the oceanic mixed layer across the North Pacific reveals that weather noise significantly impacts the heat transport in the oceanic mixed layer. In the CFSIE forecasts, the reduced weather noise leads to increased variations in heat content due to shallower mixed layer, diminished heat storage and enhanced horizontal heat advection. The enhancement of the heat advection spans from the active Kuroshio regions of the east coast of Japan to the west coast of continental United States and significantly diffuses the basin-wide SST anomaly (SSTA) contrasts and leads to reduction in the SST prediction skill in decadal forecasts.

The unsteady end to a powerful Plinian eruption: insights from a Vulcanian block apron from the 1912 eruption of Novarupta, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isgett, S. J.; Houghton, B. F.; Burgisser, A.; Arbaret, L.

2016-12-01

Current models propose a static conduit architecture prior to Vulcanian eruptions where a dense, outgassed dome/plug overlies an orderly, texturally horizontally layered conduit. Blocks from a Vulcanian phase (Episode IV) during the 1912 eruption of Novarupta provide special insight to the state of the magma within a complex shallow conduit prior to fragmentation. Extreme conduit heterogeneity is seen in a diverse range of dacitic block types, including pumiceous, dense, flow-banded, and variably welded breccia clasts, all with a range of surface-breadcrusting. Diverse 2D and 3D textures suggest a variety of degassing states, with ranges of vesicle textures (e.g. bubble number, shape, and size) in each of the block types. The nonbreadcrusted pumice exhibit textures similar to preceding Plinian phases, reflecting bubble nucleation, growth, and coalescence followed by fragmentation. Breadcrusted rind and dense dacite textures are the result of bubble collapse with the dense dacites progressing furthest along the outgassing pathway. Residual water contents within the quenched glass are all less than 0.5 wt% and indicate that the melt came from the upper 100 m of the conduit. There is no correlation between water content and vesicularity. Overall, the evidence indicates 1) the mingling of variably degassed and outgassed melts in varying states of chemical disequilibrium over a narrow depth range close to the surface and 2) fragmentation was probably driven by the melt forming the non-breadcrusted pumices which we consider was probably newly arrived in the shallow conduit at the time of fragmentation. We therefore propose a revised, dynamic model applicable to Vulcanian explosions in the context of downscaling Plinian eruptions that involves vigorous mingling of melts that are all actively degassing and outgassing to varying degrees within the shallow conduit.

On the Sensitivity of the Diurnal Cycle in the Amazon to Convective Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Itterly, Kyle; Taylor, Patrick

2015-01-01

This presentation uses publicly available CERES and radiosonde data to investigate the sensitivity of thetropical convective diurnal cycle to atmosphere state. Averaging surface observations into regimes of convective intensitydefined by satellite shows great promise for physical understandingof convection.• Convective processes in the Amazon are highly variable seasonallyand locally.• Buoyancy/CIN more important JJA– Mesoscale/synoptic features easier to separate– Length/depth of buoyancy layer very important in DJF (EL).• Moisture more important DJF, esp. UTH– Humidity of lower atmosphere significantly impacts LTS, LCL and abilityfor parcels to reach LFC.• Lower level jet strength/direction important• Convective initiation correlated with LTS, LR, LTH, EL• Duration/Phase better correlated with humidity variables• Surface Flux amplitude well correlated with convection

New directions: Time for a new approach to modeling surface-atmosphere exchanges in air quality models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saylor, Rick D.; Hicks, Bruce B.

2016-03-01

Just as the exchange of heat, moisture and momentum between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere are critical components of meteorological and climate models, the surface-atmosphere exchange of many trace gases and aerosol particles is a vitally important process in air quality (AQ) models. Current state-of-the-art AQ models treat the emission and deposition of most gases and particles as separate model parameterizations, even though evidence has accumulated over time that the emission and deposition processes of many constituents are often two sides of the same coin, with the upward (emission) or downward (deposition) flux over a landscape depending on a range of environmental, seasonal and biological variables. In this note we argue that the time has come to integrate the treatment of these processes in AQ models to provide biological, physical and chemical consistency and improved predictions of trace gases and particles.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

A Texas Flood from Land to Ocean Observed by SMAP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fournier, S.; Reager, J. T., II; Lee, T.; Vazquez, J.; David, C. H.; Gierach, M. M.

2016-12-01

Floods are natural hazards that can have damaging impacts not only on affected land areas but also on the adjacent coastal waters. NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides measurements of both surface soil moisture and sea surface salinity (SSS), offering the opportunity to study the effects of flooding events on both terrestrial and marine environments. Here, we present analysis of a severe flood that occurred in May 2015 in Texas using SMAP observations and ancillary satellite and in situ data that describe the precipitation intensity, the evolving saturation state of the land surface, the flood discharge peak, and the resulting freshwater plume in the Gulf of Mexico. We describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the different variables, their relationships, and the associated physical processes. Specifically, we identify a freshwater plume in the north-central Gulf, being distinct from the typical Mississippi River plume, that is attributable to the Texas flood.

Comparing the Degree of Land-Atmosphere Interaction in Four Atmospheric General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Ijpelaar, Ruben; Tyahla, Lori; Cox, Peter; Suarez, Max J.; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Land-atmosphere feedback, by which (for example) precipitation-induced moisture anomalies at the land surface affect the overlying atmosphere and thereby the subsequent generation of precipitation, has been examined and quantified with many atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Generally missing from such studies, however, is an indication of the extent to which the simulated feedback strength is model dependent. Four modeling groups have recently performed a highly controlled numerical experiment that allows an objective inter-model comparison of land-atmosphere feedback strength. The experiment essentially consists of an ensemble of simulations in which each member simulation artificially maintains the same time series of surface prognostic variables. Differences in atmospheric behavior between the ensemble members then indicates the degree to which the state of the land surface controls atmospheric processes in that model. A comparison of the four sets of experimental results shows that feedback strength does indeed vary significantly between the AGCMs.

Chamber measurement of surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange: Numerical evaluation of dependence on soil, interfacial layer, and source/sink properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, G. L.; Livingston, G. P.; Healy, R. W.; Striegl, R. G.

2000-04-01

We employed a three-dimensional finite difference gas diffusion model to simulate the performance of chambers used to measure surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange. We found that systematic errors often result from conventional chamber design and deployment protocols, as well as key assumptions behind the estimation of trace gas exchange rates from observed concentration data. Specifically, our simulations showed that (1) when a chamber significantly alters atmospheric mixing processes operating near the soil surface, it also nearly instantaneously enhances or suppresses the postdeployment gas exchange rate, (2) any change resulting in greater soil gas diffusivity, or greater partitioning of the diffusing gas to solid or liquid soil fractions, increases the potential for chamber-induced measurement error, and (3) all such errors are independent of the magnitude, kinetics, and/or distribution of trace gas sources, but greater for trace gas sinks with the same initial absolute flux. Finally, and most importantly, we found that our results apply to steady state as well as non-steady-state chambers, because the slow rate of gas diffusion in soil inhibits recovery of the former from their initial non-steady-state condition. Over a range of representative conditions, the error in steady state chamber estimates of the trace gas flux varied from -30 to +32%, while estimates computed by linear regression from non-steady-state chamber concentrations were 2 to 31% too small. Although such errors are relatively small in comparison to the temporal and spatial variability characteristic of trace gas exchange, they bias the summary statistics for each experiment as well as larger scale trace gas flux estimates based on them.

Upper-soil moisture inter-comparison from SMOS's products and land surface models over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polcher, Jan; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs; Aires, Filipe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Gelati, Emiliano; Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio

2015-04-01

Soil moisture is a key state variable of the hydrological cycle. It conditions runoff, infiltration and evaporation over continental surfaces, and is key for forecasting droughts and floods. It plays thus an important role in surface-atmosphere interactions. Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) can be measured by in situ measurements, by satellite observations or modelled using land surface models. As a complementary tool, data assimilation can be used to combine both modelling and satellite observations. The work presented here is an inter-comparison of retrieved and modelled SSM data, for the 2010 - 2012 period, over the Iberian Peninsula. The region has been chosen because its vegetation cover is not very dense and includes strong contrasts in the rainfall regimes and thus a diversity of behaviours for SSM. Furthermore this semi-arid region is strongly dependent on a good management of its water resources. Satellite observations correspond to the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) retrievals: the L2 product from an optimal interpolation retrieval, and 3 other products using Neural Network retrievals with different input information: SMOS time indexes, purely SMOS data, or addition of the European Advanced Scaterometer (ASCAT) backscattering, and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) surface temperature information. The modelled soil moistures have been taken from the ORCHIDEE (ORganising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) and the HTESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) land surface models. Both models are forced with the same atmospheric conditions (as part of the Earth2Observe FP7 project) over the period but they represent the surface soil moisture with very different degrees of complexity. ORCHIDEE has 5 levels in the top 5 centimetres of soil while in HTESSEL this variable is part of the top soil moisture level. The two types of SMOS retrievals are compared to the model outputs in their spatial and temporal characteristics. The comparison with the model helps to identify which retrieval configuration is most consistent with our understanding of surface soil moisture in this region. In particular we have determined how each of the soil moisture products is related to the spatio-temporal variations of rainfall. In large parts of the Iberian Peninsula the co-variance of remote sensed SSM and rainfall is consistent with that of the models. But for some regions questions are raised. The variability of SSM observed by SMOS in the North West of the Iberian Peninsula is similar to that of rainfall, at least this relation of SSM and rainfall is closer than suggested by the two models.

Multi-year Estimates of Methane Fluxes in Alaska from an Atmospheric Inverse Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S. M.; Commane, R.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, C. E.; Michalak, A. M.; Dinardo, S. J.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hartery, S.; Karion, A.; Lindaas, J.; Sweeney, C.; Wofsy, S. C.

2015-12-01

We estimate methane fluxes across Alaska over a multi-year period using observations from a three-year aircraft campaign, the Carbon Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Existing estimates of methane from Alaska and other Arctic regions disagree in both magnitude and distribution, and before the CARVE campaign, atmospheric observations in the region were sparse. We combine these observations with an atmospheric particle trajectory model and a geostatistical inversion to estimate surface fluxes at the model grid scale. We first use this framework to estimate the spatial distribution of methane fluxes across the state. We find the largest fluxes in the south-east and North Slope regions of Alaska. This distribution is consistent with several estimates of wetland extent but contrasts with the distribution in most existing flux models. These flux models concentrate methane in warmer or more southerly regions of Alaska compared to the estimate presented here. This result suggests a discrepancy in how existing bottom-up models translate wetland area into methane fluxes across the state. We next use the inversion framework to explore inter-annual variability in regional-scale methane fluxes for 2012-2014. We examine the extent to which this variability correlates with weather or other environmental conditions. These results indicate the possible sensitivity of wetland fluxes to near-term variability in climate.

30,000 years of hydroclimatic variability in the coastal southwest United States: regional synthesis and forcings analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, M. E.

2015-12-01

The coastal southwest United States is characterized by a winter dominated hydroclimate. Far from dependable, this region's supply of winter precipitation is highly variable and often characterized by hydrologic opposites - droughts and floods. Predicting future precipitation and hydrologic dynamics requires a paleoperspective. Here, we present an up-to-date synthesis of hydroclimatic variability over the past 30,000 years. A variety of terrestrial-based studies are examined and compared to understand patterns of regional hydroclimatic change. This comparison is extended into the San Joaquin Basin of California where future climate change will impact the region's agricultural stability and economy. Particularly interesting is the apparent role that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play in modulating the region's hydroclimate over a variety of timescales. Are past periods of above average Pacific SSTs analogs for future global warming? If yes, the region might expect an increase in winter precipitation as SSTs rise in response to global warming. However, how this potential precipitation increase is manifest is unknown. For example, will the intensity of precipitation events increase and thus present increased flood hazards and diminished freshwater capture? Finally, we present evidence for changes in the source of winter precipitation over time as well as ecological responses to past hydrologic change.

System analysis of vehicle active safety problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buznikov, S. E.

2018-02-01

The problem of the road transport safety affects the vital interests of the most of the population and is characterized by a global level of significance. The system analysis of problem of creation of competitive active vehicle safety systems is presented as an interrelated complex of tasks of multi-criterion optimization and dynamic stabilization of the state variables of a controlled object. Solving them requires generation of all possible variants of technical solutions within the software and hardware domains and synthesis of the control, which is close to optimum. For implementing the task of the system analysis the Zwicky “morphological box” method is used. Creation of comprehensive active safety systems involves solution of the problem of preventing typical collisions. For solving it, a structured set of collisions is introduced with its elements being generated also using the Zwicky “morphological box” method. The obstacle speed, the longitudinal acceleration of the controlled object and the unpredictable changes in its movement direction due to certain faults, the road surface condition and the control errors are taken as structure variables that characterize the conditions of collisions. The conditions for preventing typical collisions are presented as inequalities for physical variables that define the state vector of the object and its dynamic limits.

Some Physical and Computational Issues in Land Surface Data Assimilation of Satellite Skin Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackaro, Scott M.; McNider, Richard T.; Biazar, Arastoo Pour

2012-03-01

Skin temperatures that reflect the radiating temperature of a surface observed by infrared radiometers are one of the most widely available products from polar orbiting and geostationary satellites and the most commonly used satellite data in land surface assimilation. Past work has indicated that a simple land surface scheme with a few key parameters constrained by observations such as skin temperatures may be preferable to complex land use schemes with many unknown parameters. However, a true radiating skin temperature is sometimes not a prognostic variable in weather forecast models. Additionally, recent research has shown that skin temperatures cannot be directly used in surface similarity forms for inferring fluxes. This paper examines issues encountered in using satellite derived skin temperatures to improve surface flux specifications in weather forecast and air quality models. Attention is given to iterations necessary when attempting to nudge the surface energy budget equation to a desired state. Finally, the issue of mathematical operator splitting is examined in which the surface energy budget calculations are split with the atmospheric vertical diffusion calculations. However, the high level of connectivity between the surface and first atmospheric level means that the operator splitting leads to high frequency oscillations. These oscillations may hinder the assimilation of skin temperature derived moisture fluxes.

Empirical Models for the Shielding and Reflection of Jet Mixing Noise by a Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Cliff

2015-01-01

Empirical models for the shielding and refection of jet mixing noise by a nearby surface are described and the resulting models evaluated. The flow variables are used to non-dimensionalize the surface position variables, reducing the variable space and producing models that are linear function of non-dimensional surface position and logarithmic in Strouhal frequency. A separate set of coefficients are determined at each observer angle in the dataset and linear interpolation is used to for the intermediate observer angles. The shielding and rejection models are then combined with existing empirical models for the jet mixing and jet-surface interaction noise sources to produce predicted spectra for a jet operating near a surface. These predictions are then evaluated against experimental data.

Empirical Models for the Shielding and Reflection of Jet Mixing Noise by a Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Clifford A.

2016-01-01

Empirical models for the shielding and reflection of jet mixing noise by a nearby surface are described and the resulting models evaluated. The flow variables are used to non-dimensionalize the surface position variables, reducing the variable space and producing models that are linear function of non-dimensional surface position and logarithmic in Strouhal frequency. A separate set of coefficients are determined at each observer angle in the dataset and linear interpolation is used to for the intermediate observer angles. The shielding and reflection models are then combined with existing empirical models for the jet mixing and jet-surface interaction noise sources to produce predicted spectra for a jet operating near a surface. These predictions are then evaluated against experimental data.

Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hobbs, Michael L.; Romero, Vicente J.

2000-01-01

Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.