Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Reconstruction of Arctic surface temperature in past 100 years using DINEOF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiyi; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2015-04-01

Global annual mean surface temperature has not risen apparently since 1998, which is described as global warming hiatus in recent years. However, measuring of temperature variability in Arctic is difficult because of large gaps in coverage of Arctic region in most observed gridded datasets. Since Arctic has experienced a rapid temperature change in recent years that called polar amplification, and temperature risen in Arctic is faster than global mean, the unobserved temperature in central Arctic will result in cold bias in both global and Arctic temperature measurement compared with model simulations and reanalysis datasets. Moreover, some datasets that have complete coverage in Arctic but short temporal scale cannot show Arctic temperature variability for long time. Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) were applied to fill the coverage gap of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP 250km smooth) product in Arctic with IABP dataset which covers entire Arctic region between 1979 and 1998, and to reconstruct Arctic temperature in 1900-2012. This method provided temperature reconstruction in central Arctic and precise estimation of both global and Arctic temperature variability with a long temporal scale. Results have been verified by extra independent station records in Arctic by statistical analysis, such as variance and standard deviation. The result of reconstruction shows significant warming trend in Arctic in recent 30 years, as the temperature trend in Arctic since 1997 is 0.76°C per decade, compared with 0.48°C and 0.67°C per decade from 250km smooth and 1200km smooth of GISTEMP. And global temperature trend is two times greater after using DINEOF. The discrepancies above stress the importance of fully consideration of temperature variance in Arctic because gaps of coverage in Arctic cause apparent cold bias in temperature estimation. The result of global surface temperature also proves that global warming in recent years is not as slow as thought.

Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

PubMed

Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

2018-01-01

Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

The Role of Atmospheric Pressure on Surface Thermal Inertia for Early Mars Climate Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mischna, M.; Piqueux, S.

2017-12-01

On rocky bodies such as Mars, diurnal surface temperatures are controlled by the surface thermal inertia, which is a measure of the ability of the surface to store heat during the day and re-radiate it at night. Thermal inertia is a compound function of the near-surface regolith thermal conductivity, density and specific heat, with the regolith thermal conductivity being strongly controlled by the atmospheric pressure. For Mars, current best maps of global thermal inertia are derived from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft using bolometric brightness temperatures of the surface. Thermal inertia is widely used in the atmospheric modeling community to determine surface temperatures and to establish lower boundary conditions for the atmosphere. Infrared radiation emitted from the surface is key in regulating lower atmospheric temperatures and driving overall global circulation. An accurate map of surface thermal inertia is thus required to produce reasonable results of the present-day atmosphere using numerical Mars climate models. Not surprisingly, thermal inertia is also a necessary input into climate models of early Mars, which assume a thicker atmosphere, by as much as one to two orders of magnitude above the present-day 6 mb mean value. Early Mars climate models broadly, but incorrectly, assume the present day thermal inertia surface distribution. Here, we demonstrate that, on early Mars, when pressures were larger than today's, the surface layer thermal inertia was globally higher because of the increased thermal conductivity driven by the higher gas pressure in interstitial pore spaces within the soil. Larger thermal inertia reduces the diurnal range of surface temperature and will affect the size and timing of the modeled seasonal polar ice caps. Additionally, it will globally alter the frequency of when surface temperatures are modeled to exceed the liquid water melting point, and so results may need to be reassessed in light of lower `peak' global temperatures. We shall demonstrate the consequences of using properly calibrated thermal inertia maps for early Mars climate simulations, and propose simplified thermal inertia maps for use in such climate models.

Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

1983-01-01

A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

Global Validation of MODIS Atmospheric Profile-Derived Near-Surface Air Temperature and Dew Point Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Famiglietti, C.; Fisher, J.; Halverson, G. H.

2017-12-01

This study validates a method of remote sensing near-surface meteorology that vertically interpolates MODIS atmospheric profiles to surface pressure level. The extraction of air temperature and dew point observations at a two-meter reference height from 2001 to 2014 yields global moderate- to fine-resolution near-surface temperature distributions that are compared to geographically and temporally corresponding measurements from 114 ground meteorological stations distributed worldwide. This analysis is the first robust, large-scale validation of the MODIS-derived near-surface air temperature and dew point estimates, both of which serve as key inputs in models of energy, water, and carbon exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Results show strong linear correlations between remotely sensed and in-situ near-surface air temperature measurements (R2 = 0.89), as well as between dew point observations (R2 = 0.77). Performance is relatively uniform across climate zones. The extension of mean climate-wise percent errors to the entire remote sensing dataset allows for the determination of MODIS air temperature and dew point uncertainties on a global scale.

The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaqur Rahman, M.; Almazroui, Mansour; Nazrul Islam, M.; O'Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed Elsayed

2018-02-01

A new version of the Community Land Model (CLM) was introduced to the Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric Global Climate Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) for better land surface component representation, and so to enhance climate simulation. CLM replaced the original land surface model (LSM) in Saudi-KAU AGCM, with the aim of simulating more accurate land surface fluxes globally, but especially over the Arabian Peninsula. To evaluate the performance of Saudi-KAU AGCM, simulations were completed with CLM and LSM for the period 1981-2010. In comparison with LSM, CLM generates surface air temperature values that are closer to National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The global annual averages of land surface air temperature are 9.51, 9.52, and 9.57 °C for NCEP, CLM, and LSM respectively, although the same atmospheric radiative and surface forcing from Saudi-KAU AGCM are provided to both LSM and CLM at every time step. The better temperature simulations when using CLM can be attributed to the more comprehensive plant functional type and hierarchical tile approach to the land cover type in CLM, along with better parameterization of upward land surface fluxes compared to LSM. At global scale, CLM exhibits smaller annual and seasonal mean biases of temperature with respect to NCEP data. Moreover, at regional scale, CLM demonstrates reasonable seasonal and annual mean temperature over the Arabian Peninsula as compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data. Finally, CLM generated better matches to single point-wise observations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes for some case studies.

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST, suggesting a close coupling between surface temperature and SWV.

Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2017-04-01

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment and understanding of fire’s influence on the global annual land surface air temperature and energy budget through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Fire impacts are quantified by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show that, for the 20th century average, fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems significantly increase global land annual mean surface air temperature by 0.18 °C, decrease surface net radiation and latent heat flux by 1.08 W m-2 and 0.99 W m-2, respectively, and have limited influence on sensible heat flux (-0.11 W m-2) and ground heat flux (+0.02 W m-2). Fire impacts are most clearly seen in the tropical savannas. Our analyses suggest that fire increases surface air temperature predominantly by reducing latent heat flux, mainly due to fire-induced damage to the vegetation canopy, and decreases net radiation primarily because fire-induced surface warming significantly increases upward surface longwave radiation. This study provides an integrated estimate of fire and induced changes in ecosystems, climate, and energy budget at a global scale, and emphasizes the importance of a consistent and integrated understanding of fire effects.

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires through seasonal advection thermal effects on potential evaporation by winds blowing eastward over California, the Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, and into the Great Plains. These coupled SST photosynthesis models constitute an advanced approach for crop modeling in the era of recent new climate.

Revisiting the global surface energy budgets with maximum-entropy-production model of surface heat fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shih-Yu; Deng, Yi; Wang, Jingfeng

2017-09-01

The maximum-entropy-production (MEP) model of surface heat fluxes, based on contemporary non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information theory, and atmospheric turbulence theory, is used to re-estimate the global surface heat fluxes. The MEP model predicted surface fluxes automatically balance the surface energy budgets at all time and space scales without the explicit use of near-surface temperature and moisture gradient, wind speed and surface roughness data. The new MEP-based global annual mean fluxes over the land surface, using input data of surface radiation, temperature data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (NASA CERES) supplemented by surface specific humidity data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), agree closely with previous estimates. The new estimate of ocean evaporation, not using the MERRA reanalysis data as model inputs, is lower than previous estimates, while the new estimate of ocean sensible heat flux is higher than previously reported. The MEP model also produces the first global map of ocean surface heat flux that is not available from existing global reanalysis products.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

PubMed

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

MISST: The Multi-Sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

climate change studies, fisheries management, and a wide range of other applications. Measurements are taken by several satellites carrying infrared and...TEMPERATURE PROJECT ABSTRACT. Sea surface temperature (SST) measurements are vital to global weather prediction, climate change studies, fisheries management...important variables related to the global ocean-atmosphere system. It is a key indicator of climate change , is widely applied to studies of upper

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-09-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years -- a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings -- global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-01-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CEthat is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong; Li, Laurent Z. X.

The surface air temperature response to vegetation changes has been studied for the extreme case of land-cover change; yet, it has never been quantified for the slow but persistent increase in leaf area index (LAI) observed over the past 30 years (Earth greening). We isolate the fingerprint of increasing LAI on surface air temperature using a coupled land–atmosphere global climate model prescribed with satellite LAI observations. Furthermore, we found that the global greening has slowed down the rise in global land-surface air temperature by 0.09 ± 0.02 °C since 1982. This net cooling effect is the sum of cooling frommore » increased evapotranspiration (70%), changed atmospheric circulation (44%), decreased shortwave transmissivity (21%), and warming from increased longwave air emissivity (-29%) and decreased albedo (-6%). The global cooling originated from the regions where LAI has increased, including boreal Eurasia, Europe, India, northwest Amazonia, and the Sahel. Increasing LAI did not, but, significantly change surface air temperature in eastern North America and East Asia, where the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes mask local vegetation feedbacks. Overall, the sum of biophysical feedbacks related to the greening of the Earth mitigated 12% of global land-surface warming for the past 30 years.« less

Estimating morning changes in land surface temperature from MODIS day/night land surface temperature: Applications for surface energy balance modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Observations of land surface temperature (LST) are crucial for the monitoring of surface energy fluxes from satellite. Methods that require high temporal resolution LST observations (e.g., from geostationary orbit) can be difficult to apply globally because several geostationary sensors are required...

Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

2013-12-01

It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption in polar regions is more than compensated by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation. Relationship between global SSH trend over a decade and (A) local SSH change over a decade (m/m). (B) Global SST change over a decade (m/K) (C) Portion of decadal SST change correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (m/K) (D) Portion of decadal SST change not correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere.

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

Pressure and Temperature Sensitive Paint Field System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprinkle, Danny R.; Obara, Clifford J.; Amer, Tahani R.; Faulcon, Nettie D.; Carmine, Michael T.; Burkett, Cecil G.; Pritchard, Daniel W.; Oglesby, Donald M.

2004-01-01

This report documents the Pressure and Temperature Sensitive Paint Field System that is used to provide global surface pressure and temperature measurements on models tested in Langley wind tunnels. The system was developed and is maintained by Global Surface Measurements Team personnel of the Data Acquisition and Information Management Branch in the Research Facilities Services Competency. Descriptions of the system hardware and software are presented and operational procedures are detailed.

High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

2011-12-01

We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the ideas of this study. They had the high correlation and root mean square error skill levels compared to observations of 0.74 and 0.07oC respectively. Pseudo-forecasts for the same period reconstructed from somewhat improved forcing data used for this study had the slightly better correlation of 0.80 and root mean squared error of 0.05oC. Finally we compare the statistical forecasts with dynamical hindcasts and forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead made by the Met Office DePreSys coupled model. The statistical and dynamical forecasts of global surface temperature for 2011 will be compared with preliminary verification data.

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Meteorological and Oceanographic Data Sets for 1985 and 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Ashby, H.; Finch, C.; Smith, E.; Robles, J.

1990-01-01

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is a component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) World Climate Research Program (WCRP). One of the objectives of TOGA, which began in 1985, is to determine the limits of predictability of monthly mean sea surface temperature variations in tropical regions. The TOGA program created a raison d'etre for an explosive growth of the tropical ocean observing system and a substantial improvement in numerical simulations from atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models. Institutions located throughout the world are involved in the TOGA-distributed active data archive system. The diverse TOGA data sets for 1985 and 1986, including results from general circulation models, are included on a CD-ROM. Variables on the CD-ROM are barometric pressure, surface air temperature, dewpoint temperature Cartesian components of surface wind, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes,Cartesian components of surface wind stress and of an index of surface wind stress, sea level, sea surface temperature, and depth profiles of temperature and current in the upper ocean. Some data sets are global in extent, some are regional and cover portions of an ocean basin. Data on the CD-ROM can be extracted with an Apple Macintosh or an IBM PC.

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui

2016-12-01

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

Estimating the power of Mars’ greenhouse effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.

2013-03-01

Extensive modeling of Mars in conjunction with in situ observations suggests that the annual average global mean surface temperature is Tsbar∼202 K. Yet its effective temperature, i.e., the temperature at which a blackbody radiates away the energy it absorbs, is Te ∼ 208 K. How can a planet with a CO2 atmosphere have a mean annual surface temperature that is actually less than its effective temperature? We use the Ames General Circulation Model explain why this is the case and point out that the correct comparison of the effective temperature is with the effective surface temperature Tse, which is the fourth root of the annual and globally averaged value of Ts4. This may seem obvious, but the distinction is often not recognized in the literature.

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

The Global Drifter Program Currents, Sea Surface Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure and Waves in the World's OceanThe Global Drifter Program Currents, Sea Surface Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure and Waves in the World's Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Centurioni, Luca

2017-04-01

The Global Drifter Program is the principal component of the Global Surface Drifting Buoy Array, a branch of NOAA's Global Ocean Observing System and a scientific project of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP). The DBCP is an international program coordinating the use of autonomous data buoys to observe atmospheric and oceanographic conditions over ocean areas where few other measurements are taken. The Global Drifter Program maintains an array of over 1,250 Lagrangian drifters, reporting in near real-time and designed measure 15 m depth Lagrangian currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level atmospheric pressure (SLP), among others, to fulfill the needs to observe the air-sea interface at temporal and spatial scales adequate to support short to medium-range weather forecasting, ocean state estimates and climate science. This overview talk will discuss the main achievements of the program, the main impacts for satellite SST calibration and validation, for numerical weather prediction, and it will review the main scientific findings based on the use of Lagrangian currents. Finally, we will present new developments in Lagrangian drifter technology, which include special drifters designed to measure sea surface salinity, wind and directional wave spectra. New opportunities for expanding the scope of the Global Drifter Program will be discussed.

Warmest Global Temperature on Record on This Week @NASA – January 20, 2017

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-01-20

NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Jan. 18, that global surface temperatures in 2016 were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880. The finding was based on results of independent analyses by both agencies. According to analysis by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, 2016 is the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures, further demonstrating a long-term warming trend. Also, Cygnus Cargo Module Arrives at KSC, Up in 30 Seconds, and Remembering Gene Cernan.

Characterizing an Integrated Annual Global Measure of the Earth's Maximum Land Surface Temperatures from 2003 to 2012 Reveals Strong Biogeographic Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mildrexler, D. J.; Zhao, M.; Running, S. W.

2014-12-01

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a good indicator of the surface energy balance because it is determined by interactions and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and the ground. The variability of land surface properties and vegetation densities across the Earth's surface changes these interactions and gives LST a unique biogeographic influence. Natural and human-induced disturbances modify the surface characteristics and alter the expression of LST. This results in a heterogeneous and dynamic thermal environment. Measurements that merge these factors into a single global metric, while maintaining the important biophysical and biogeographical factors of the land surface's thermal environment are needed to better understand integrated temperature changes in the Earth system. Using satellite-based LST we have developed a new global metric that focuses on one critical component of LST that occurs when the relationship between vegetation density and surface temperature is strongly coupled: annual maximum LST (LSTmax). A 10 year evaluation of LSTmax histograms that include every 1-km pixel across the Earth's surface reveals that this integrative measurement is strongly influenced by the biogeographic patterns of the Earth's ecosystems, providing a unique comparative view of the planet every year that can be likened to the Earth's thermal maximum fingerprint. The biogeographical component is controlled by the frequency and distribution of vegetation types across the Earth's land surface and displays a trimodal distribution. The three modes are driven by ice covered polar regions, forests, and hot desert/shrubland environments. In ice covered areas the histograms show that the heat of fusion results in a convergence of surface temperatures around the melting point. The histograms also show low interannual variability reflecting two important global land surface dynamics; 1) only a small fraction of the Earth's surface is disturbed in any given year, and 2) when considered at the global scale, the positive and negative climate forcings resulting from the aggregate effects of the loss of vegetation to disturbances and the regrowth from natural succession are roughly in balance. Changes in any component of the histogram can be tracked and would indicate a major change in the Earth system.

Global comparisons between the modified Pathfinder derived sea surface temperature and skin temperatures from the along-track scanning radiometer on board ERS-2: how close are we getting?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vazquez, J.

2001-01-01

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as derived from the Pathfinder Sea Surface Temperature Data Set and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer on-board the European Remote Sensing Satellite provide a unique opportunity for comparing two independent SST data sets.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

The carbonate-silicate cycle and CO2/climate feedbacks on tidally locked terrestrial planets.

PubMed

Edson, Adam R; Kasting, James F; Pollard, David; Lee, Sukyoung; Bannon, Peter R

2012-06-01

Atmospheric gaseous constituents play an important role in determining the surface temperatures and habitability of a planet. Using a global climate model and a parameterization of the carbonate-silicate cycle, we explored the effect of the location of the substellar point on the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and temperatures of a tidally locked terrestrial planet, using the present Earth continental distribution as an example. We found that the substellar point's location relative to the continents is an important factor in determining weathering and the equilibrium atmospheric CO(2) level. Placing the substellar point over the Atlantic Ocean results in an atmospheric CO(2) concentration of 7 ppmv and a global mean surface air temperature of 247 K, making ∼30% of the planet's surface habitable, whereas placing it over the Pacific Ocean results in a CO(2) concentration of 60,311 ppmv and a global temperature of 282 K, making ∼55% of the surface habitable.

The measurement of climate change using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution and Along Track Scanning Radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, S. P.; Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Smith, S. J.

2004-08-01

Global sea-surface temperature is an important indicator of climate change, with the ability to reflect warming/cooling climate trends. The detection of such trends requires rigorous measurements that are global, accurate, and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in sea-surface temperature data. Analyses of two independent data sets from the Advanced Very High Resolution and Along Track Scanning Radiometers series of space sensors during the period 1985 to 2000 reveal trends of increasing global temperature with magnitudes of 0.09°C and 0.13°C per decade, respectively, closely matching that expected due to current levels of greenhouse gas exchange. In addition, an analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of El Niño in order to examine areas of change other than the tropical Pacific region, indicates that the 1997 El Niño event affected sea-surface temperature globally. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data sets, which cover long time series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterize long-term change. The conclusion is that satellite sea-surface temperature provides an important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change.

A framework for global diurnally-resolved observations of Land Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

2014-05-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Being a key boundary condition in land surface models, which determine the surface to atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and carbon; thus influencing cloud cover, precipitation and atmospheric chemistry predictions within Global models, the requirement for global diurnal observations of LST is well founded. Earth Observation satellites offer an opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST, with the appropriate exploitation of data from multiple instruments providing a capacity to resolve the diurnal cycle on a global scale. Here we present a framework for the production of global, diurnally resolved, data sets for LST which is a key request from users of LST data. We will show how the sampling of both geostationary and low earth orbit data sets could conceptually be employed to build combined, multi-sensor, pole-to-pole data sets. Although global averages already exist for individual instruments and merging of geostationary based LST is already being addressed operationally (Freitas, et al., 2013), there are still a number of important challenges to overcome. In this presentation, we will consider three of the issues still open in LST remote sensing: 1) the consistency amongst retrievals; 2) the clear-sky bias and its quantification; and 3) merging methods and the propagation of uncertainties. For example, the combined use of both geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and low earth orbit (LEO) data, and both infra-red and microwave data are relatively unexplored but are necessary to make the most progress. Hence this study will suggest what is state-of-the-art and how considerable advances can be made, accounting also for recent improvements in techniques and data quality. The GlobTemperature initiative under the Data User Element of ESA's 4th Earth Observation Envelope Programme (2013-2017), which aims to support the wider uptake of global-scale satellite LST by the research and operational user communities, will be a particularly important element in the development and subsequent provision of global diurnal LST. References Freitas, S.C., Trigo, I.F., Macedo, J., Barroso, C., Silva, R., & Perdigao, R., 2013, Land surface temperature from multiple geostationary satellites, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 34, 3051-3068.

Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1993-01-01

We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

2013-03-01

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

A statistical examination of Nimbus 7 SMMR data and remote sensing of sea surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere and surfaces wind speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Wang, I.; Chang, A. T. C.; Gloersen, P.

1982-01-01

Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperature measurements over the global oceans have been examined with the help of statistical and empirical techniques. Such analyses show that zonal averages of brightness temperature measured by SMMR, over the oceans, on a large scale are primarily influenced by the water vapor in the atmosphere. Liquid water in the clouds and rain, which has a much smaller spatial and temporal scale, contributes substantially to the variability of the SMMR measurements within the latitudinal zones. The surface wind not only increases the surface emissivity but through its interactions with the atmosphere produces correlations, in the SMMR brightness temperature data, that have significant meteorological implications. It is found that a simple meteorological model can explain the general characteristics of the SMMR data. With the help of this model methods to infer over the global oceans, the surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere, and surface wind speed are developed. Monthly mean estimates of the sea surface temperature and surface winds are compared with the ship measurements. Estimates of liquid water content in the atmosphere are consistent with earlier satellite measurements.

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugini, Lucia; Caporaso, Luca; Marconi, Sergio; Cescatti, Alessandro; Quesada, Benjamin; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; House, Johanna I.; Arneth, Almut

2017-05-01

Anthropogenic land cover changes (LCC) affect regional and global climate through biophysical variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. This change in surface energy budget may exacerbate or counteract biogeochemical greenhouse gas effects of LCC, with a large body of emerging assessments being produced, sometimes apparently contradictory. We reviewed the existing scientific literature with the objective to provide an overview of the state-of-the-knowledge of the biophysical LCC climate effects, in support of the assessment of mitigation/adaptation land policies. Out of the published studies that were analyzed, 28 papers fulfilled the eligibility criteria, providing surface air temperature and/or precipitation change with respect to LCC regionally and/or globally. We provide a synthesis of the signal, magnitude and uncertainty of temperature and precipitation changes in response to LCC biophysical effects by climate region (boreal/temperate/tropical) and by key land cover transitions. Model results indicate that a modification of biophysical processes at the land surface has a strong regional climate effect, and non-negligible global impact on temperature. Simulations experiments of large-scale (i.e. complete) regional deforestation lead to a mean reduction in precipitation in all regions, while air surface temperature increases in the tropics and decreases in boreal regions. The net global climate effects of regional deforestation are less certain. There is an overall consensus in the model experiments that the average global biophysical climate response to complete global deforestation is atmospheric cooling and drying. Observed estimates of temperature change following deforestation indicate a smaller effect than model-based regional estimates in boreal regions, comparable results in the tropics, and contrasting results in temperate regions. Regional/local biophysical effects following LCC are important for local climate, water cycle, ecosystems, their productivity and biodiversity, and thus important to consider in the formulation of adaptation policy. However before considering the inclusion of biophysical climate effects of LCC under the UNFCCC, science has to provide robust tools and methods for estimation of both country and global level effects.

Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Smith, R. O.; Parker, D. E.; Saunby, M.

2011-07-01

Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time-varying biases in estimates of global and regional average sea surface temperature. The size of the biases arising from these changes are estimated and their uncertainties evaluated. The estimated biases and their associated uncertainties are largest during the period immediately following the Second World War, reflecting the rapid and incompletely documented changes in shipping and data availability at the time. Adjustments have been applied to reduce these effects in gridded data sets of sea surface temperature and the results are presented as a set of interchangeable realizations. Uncertainties of estimated trends in global and regional average sea surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea surface temperatures. Despite this, trends over the twentieth century remain qualitatively consistent.

Surface Temperature Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto

2012-01-01

Small global mean temperature changes may have significant to disastrous consequences for the Earth's climate if they persist for an extended period. Obtaining global means from local weather reports is hampered by the uneven spatial distribution of the reliably reporting weather stations. Methods had to be developed that minimize as far as possible the impact of that situation. This software is a method of combining temperature data of individual stations to obtain a global mean trend, overcoming/estimating the uncertainty introduced by the spatial and temporal gaps in the available data. Useful estimates were obtained by the introduction of a special grid, subdividing the Earth's surface into 8,000 equal-area boxes, using the existing data to create virtual stations at the center of each of these boxes, and combining temperature anomalies (after assessing the radius of high correlation) rather than temperatures.

Global temperature change

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

Multimodel Surface Temperature Responses to Removal of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conley, A. J.; Westervelt, D. M.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Fiore, A. M.; Shindell, D.; Correa, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.

2018-03-01

Three Earth System models are used to derive surface temperature responses to removal of U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Using multicentury perturbation runs with and without U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions, the local and remote surface temperature changes are estimated. In spite of a temperature drift in the control and large internal variability, 200 year simulations yield statistically significant regional surface temperature responses to the removal of U.S. SO2 emissions. Both local and remote surface temperature changes occur in all models, and the patterns of changes are similar between models for northern hemisphere land regions. We find a global average temperature sensitivity to U.S. SO2 emissions of 0.0055 K per Tg(SO2) per year with a range of (0.0036, 0.0078). We examine global and regional responses in SO4 burdens, aerosol optical depths (AODs), and effective radiative forcing (ERF). While changes in AOD and ERF are concentrated near the source region (United States), the temperature response is spread over the northern hemisphere with amplification of the temperature increase toward the Arctic. In all models, we find a significant response of dust concentrations, which affects the AOD but has no obvious effect on surface temperature. Temperature sensitivity to the ERF of U.S. SO2 emissions is found to differ from the models' sensitivity to radiative forcing of doubled CO2.

Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2012-01-01

A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

DISAGGREGATION OF GOES LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES USING SURFACE EMISSIVITY

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate temporal and spatial estimation of land surface temperatures (LST) is important for modeling the hydrological cycle at field to global scales because LSTs can improve estimates of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Using remote sensing satellites, accurate LSTs could be routine, but unfo...

Differential response of surface temperature and atmospheric temperature to the biogeophysical effects of deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, J.; Reick, C. H.; Lejeune, Q.; Pongratz, J.

2017-12-01

Deforestation influences temperature locally by changing the water, energy and momentum balance. While most observation-based studies and some modeling studies focused on the effects on surface temperature, other studies focused on the effects on near-surface air temperature. However, these two variables may respond differently to deforestation because changes in albedo and surface roughness may alter the land-atmosphere coupling and thus the vertical temperature distribution. Thus it is unclear whether it is possible to compare studies that assess the impacts of deforestation on these two different variables. Here, we analyze the biogeophysical effects of global-scale deforestation in the climate model MPI-ESM separately for surface temperature, 2m-air temperature and temperature the lowest atmospheric model layer. We investigate why the response of these variables differs by isolating the effects of only changing surface albedo and only changing surface roughness and by separating effects that are induced at the location of deforestation (local effects) from effects that are induced by advection and changes in circulation (nonlocal effects). Concerning surface temperature, we find that the local effects of deforestation lead to a global mean warming which is overcompensated by the nonlocal effects (up to 0.1K local warming versus -0.3K nonlocal cooling). The surface warming in the local effects is largely driven by the change in surface roughness while the cooling in the nonlocal effects is largely driven by the change in surface albedo. The nonlocal effects are largely consistent across surface temperature, 2m-air temperature, and the temperature of the lowest atmospheric layer. However, the local effects strongly differ across the three considered variables. The local effects are strong for surface temperature, but substantially weaker in the 2m-air temperature and largely absent in the lowest atmospheric layer. We conclude that studies focusing on the deforestation effects on surface temperature should not be compared to studies focusing on the effects on air temperature. While the local effects on surface temperature are useful for model evaluation, they might be less relevant for local adaptation and mitigation than previously thought because they might largely be absent in the atmosphere.

Global fields of soil moisture and land surface evapotranspiration derived from observed precipitation and surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mintz, Y.; Walker, G. K.

1993-01-01

The global fields of normal monthly soil moisture and land surface evapotranspiration are derived with a simple water budget model that has precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as inputs. The precipitation is observed and the potential evapotranspiration is derived from the observed surface air temperature with the empirical regression equation of Thornthwaite (1954). It is shown that at locations where the net surface radiation flux has been measured, the potential evapotranspiration given by the Thornthwaite equation is in good agreement with those obtained with the radiation-based formulations of Priestley and Taylor (1972), Penman (1948), and Budyko (1956-1974), and this provides the justification for the use of the Thornthwaite equation. After deriving the global fields of soil moisture and evapotranspiration, the assumption is made that the potential evapotranspiration given by the Thornthwaite equation and by the Priestley-Taylor equation will everywhere be about the same; the inverse of the Priestley-Taylor equation is used to obtain the normal monthly global fields of net surface radiation flux minus ground heat storage. This and the derived evapotranspiration are then used in the equation for energy conservation at the surface of the earth to obtain the global fields of normal monthly sensible heat flux from the land surface to the atmosphere.

GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Ruedy, R.; Glascoe, J.; Sato, M.

1999-01-01

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change is higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 is too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino, suggesting that global temperature may have moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. The warming in the United States over the past 50 years is smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there is a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism is involved in this regional cooling.

Phenol-Formaldehyde Resin for Optical-Chemical Temperature Sensing.

PubMed

Claucherty, Steven; Sakaue, Hirotaka

2018-05-30

The application of phenol-formaldehyde (PF) resin as an optical temperature sensor is investigated. Recent developments in optical luminescent sensors allow for global measurements to be made over the surface of a test article, extending beyond conventional point measurements. Global temperature distributions are particularly helpful when validating computational models or when mapping temperature over complex geometries, and can be used to calculate surface heat flux values. Temperature-sensitive paint (TSP) is a novel chemical approach to obtaining these global temperature measurements, but there are still challenges to overcome to make it a reliable tool. A sensor with a wide range of temperature sensitivity is desired to provide the maximum amount of utility, especially for tests spanning large temperature gradients. Naturally luminescent materials such as PF resin provide an attractive alternative to chemical sensor coatings, and PF resin is studied for this reason. Static tests of different PF resin samples are conducted using two binder materials to strengthen the material: cloth and paper. The material shows temperature sensitivities up to -0.8%/K, demonstrating the usefulness of PF resin as a temperature sensor.

Understanding Arctic surface temperature differences in reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Zhao, B.; Shuman, C. A.; Nowicki, S.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70°N-90°N) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70ÂdegN-90ÂdegN) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Fully reprocessed ERS-1 altimeter data from 1992 to 1995: Feasibility of the detection of long term sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anzenhofer, M.; Gruber, T.

1998-04-01

Global mean sea level observations are necessary to answer the urgent questions about climate changes and their impact on socio-economy. At GeoForschungsZentrum/Geman Processing and Archiving Facility ERS altimeter data is used to systematically generate geophysical products such as sea surface topography, high-resolution geoid and short- and long-period sea surface height models. On the basis of this experience, fully reprocessed ERS-1 altimeter data is used to generated a time series of monthly sea surface height models from April 1992 to April 1995. The reprocessing consists of improved satellite ephemerides, merging of Grenoble tidal model, and application of range corrections due to timing errors. With the new data set the TOPEX/POSEIDON prelaunch accuracy requirements are fulfilled. The 3-year time series is taken to estimate the rate of change of global mean sea level. A careful treatment of seasonal effects is considered. A masking of continents, sea ice, and suspect sea surface heights is chosen that is common for all sea surface height models. The obtained rate of change is compared to external results from tide gauge records and TOPEX/POSEIDON data. The relation of sea level changes and sea surface temperature variations is examined by means of global monthly sea surface temperature maps. Both global wind speed and wave height maps are investigated and correlated with sea surface heights and sea surface temperatures in order to find other indicators of climate variations. The obtained rate of changes of the various global maps is compared to an atmospheric CO2 anomaly record, which is highly correlated to El Niño events. The relatively short period of 3 years, however, does not allow definite conclusions with respect to possible long-term climate changes.

The Martian paleoclimate and enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Owen, T.; Ramanathan, V.

1980-01-01

Current evidence indicates that the Martian surface is abundant with water presently in the form of ice, while the atmosphere was at one time more massive with a past surface pressure of as much as 1 atm of CO2. In an attempt to understand the Martian paleoclimate, a past CO2-H2O greenhouse was modeled and global temperatures which are consistent with an earlier presence of liquid surface water are found in agreement with the extensive evidence for past fluvial erosion. An important aspect of the CO2-H2O greenhouse model is the detailed inclusion of CO2 hot bands. For a surface pressure of 1 atm of CO2, the present greenhouse model predicts a global mean surface temperature of 294 K, but if the hot bands are excluded, a surface temperature of only 250 K is achieved.

Trends in Surface Temperature from AIRS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzmaikin, A.; Aumann, H. H.

2014-12-01

To address possible causes of the current hiatus in the Earth's global temperature we investigate the trends and variability in the surface temperature using retrievals obtained from the measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and its companion instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), onboard of Aqua spacecraft in 2002-2014. The data used are L3 monthly means on a 1x1degree spatial grid. We separate the land and ocean temperatures, as well as temperatures in Artic, Antarctic and desert regions. We find a monotonic positive trend for the land temperature but not for the ocean temperature. The difference in the regional trends can help to explain why the global surface temperature remains almost unchanged but the frequency of occurrence of the extreme events increases under rising anthropogenic forcing. The results are compared with the model studies. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Global surface temperature/heat transfer measurements using infrared imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daryabeigi, Kamran

1992-01-01

A series of studies were conducted to evaluate the use of scanning radiometric infrared imaging systems for providing global surface temperature/heat transfer measurements in support of hypersonic wind tunnel testing. The in situ precision of the technique with narrow temperature span setting over the temperature range of 20 to 200 C was investigated. The precision of the technique over wider temperature span settings was also determined. The accuracy of technique for providing aerodynamic heating rates was investigated by performing measurements on a 10.2-centimeter hemisphere model in the Langley 31-inch Mach 10 tunnel, and comparing the results with theoretical predictions. Data from tests conducted on a generic orbiter model in this tunnel are also presented.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

NASA GISS Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, G.; Ruedy, R.; Persin, A

The NASA GISS Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) analysis provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was established. The input data that the GISTEMP Team use for the analysis, collected by many national meteorological services around the world, are the adjusted data of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Vs. 3 (this represents a change from prior use of unadjusted Vs. 2 data) (Peterson and Vose, 1997 and 1998), United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data, and SCAR (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research) datamore » from Antarctic stations. Documentation of the basic analysis method is provided by Hansen et al. (1999), with several modifications described by Hansen et al. (2001). The GISS analysis is updated monthly, however CDIAC's presentation of the data here is updated annually.« less

An energy balance climate model with cloud feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, J. O.; Vallis, G. K.

1984-01-01

The present two-level global climate model, which is based on the atmosphere-surface energy balance, includes physically based parameterizations for the exchange of heat and moisture across latitude belts and between the surface and the atmosphere, precipitation and cloud formation, and solar and IR radiation. The model field predictions obtained encompass surface and atmospheric temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and cloudiness. In the model integrations presented, it is noted that cloudiness is generally constant with changing temperature at low latitudes. High altitude cloudiness increases with temperature, although the cloud feedback effect on the radiation field remains small because of compensating effects on thermal and solar radiation. The net global feedback by the cloud field is negative, but small.

The effects of orbital and climatic variations on Martian surface heat flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.

1993-01-01

Large changes in the orbital elements of Mars on timescales of 10(exp 4) to 10(exp 6) years will cause widely varying climate, specifically surface temperatures, as a result of varying insolation. These surface temperature oscillations will produce subsurface thermal gradients which contribute to the total surface heat flux. We investigate the thermal behavior of the Martian regolith on orbital timescales and show that this climatological surface heat flux is spatially variable and contributes significantly to the total surface heat flux at many locations. We model the thermal behavior of the Martian regolith by calculating the mean annual surface temperatures for each epoch (spaced 1000 years apart to resolve orbital variations) for the past 200,000 years at a chosen location on the surface. These temperatures are used as a boundary condition for the deeper regolith and subsurface temperature oscillation are then computed. The surface climatological heat flux due to past climate changes can then be found from the temperature gradient between the surface and about 150 m depth (a fraction of the thermal skin depth on these timescales). This method provides a fairly accurate determination of the climatological heat flow component at a point; however, this method is computationally time consuming and cannot be applied to all points on the globe. To map the spatial variations in the surface heat flow we recognize that the subsurface temperature structure will be largely dominated by the most recent surface temperature oscillations. In fact, the climate component of the surface heat flow will be approximately proportional to the magnitude of the most recent surface temperature change. By calculating surface temperatures at all points globally for the present epoch and an appropriate past epoch, and combining these results with a series of more precise calculations described above, we estimate the global distribution of climatological surface heat flow.

Black sea surface temperature anomaly on 5th August 1998 and the ozone layer thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manev, A.; Palazov, K.; Raykov, St.; Ivanov, V.

2003-04-01

BLACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON 5th AUGUST 1998 AND THE OZONE LAYER THICKNESS A. Manev , K. Palazov , St. Raykov, V. Ivanov Solar Terrestrial Influences Laboratory, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences amanev@abv.bg This paper focuses on the peculiarities of the Black Sea surface temperature anomaly on 05.08.1998. Researching the daily temperature changes in a number of control fields in the course of 8-10 years, we have found hidden correlations and anomalous deviations in the sea surface temperatures on a global scale. Research proves the statistical reliability of the temperature anomaly on the entire Black Sea surface registered on 04.-05.08.1998. In the course of six days around these dates the temperatures are up to 2°C higher than the maximum temperatures in this period in the other seven years. A more detailed analysis of the dynamics of the anomaly required the investigation of five Black Sea surface characteristic zones of 75x75 km. The analysis covers the period 20 days - 10 days before and 10 days after the anomaly. Investigations aimed at interpreting the reasons for the anomalous heating of the surface waters. We have tried to analyze the correlation between sea surface temperature and the global ozone above the Black Sea by using simultaneously data from the two satellite systems NOAA and TOMS. Methods of processing and comparing the data from the two satellite systems are described. The correlation coefficients values for the five characteristic zones are very high and close, which proves that the character of the correlation ozone - sea surface temperature is the same for the entire Black Sea surface. Despite the high correlation coefficient, we have proved that causality between the two phenomena at the time of the anomaly does not exit.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L.; Stock, James H.

2011-01-01

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects. PMID:21730180

Extratropical Influence of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind on Water Recycling Rate Over Oceans and Coastal Lands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Hua; Liu, W. Timothy

1999-01-01

Water vapor and precipitation are two important parameters confining the hydrological cycle in the atmosphere and over the ocean surface. In the extratropical areas, due to variations of midlatitude storm tracks and subtropical jetstreams, water vapor and precipitation have large variability. Recently, a concept of water recycling rate defined previously by Chahine et al. (GEWEX NEWS, August, 1997) has drawn increasing attention. The recycling rate of moisture is calculated as the ratio of precipitation to total precipitable water (its inverse is the water residence time). In this paper, using multi-sensor spacebased measurements we will study the role of sea surface temperature and ocean surface wind in determining the water recycling rate over oceans and coastal lands. Response of water recycling rate in midlatitudes to the El Nino event will also be discussed. Sea surface temperature data are derived from satellite observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) blended with in situ measurements, available for the period 1982-1998. Global sea surface wind observations are obtained from spaceborne scatterometers aboard on the European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS1 and 2), available for the period 1991-1998. Global total precipitable water provided by the NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP) is available for the period 1988-1995. Global monthly mean precipitation provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is available for the period 1987-1998.

Global Land Surface Temperature From the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D. J.; Corlett, G. K.; Göttsche, F.-M.; Remedios, J. J.

2017-11-01

The Leicester Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) Processor for LAnd Surface Temperature (LASPLAST) provides global land surface temperature (LST) products from thermal infrared radiance data. In this paper, the state-of-the-art version of LASPLAST, as deployed in the GlobTemperature project, is described and applied to data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). The LASPLAST retrieval formulation for LST is a nadir-only, two-channel, split-window algorithm, based on biome classification, fractional vegetation, and across-track water vapor dependences. It incorporates globally robust retrieval coefficients derived using highly sampled atmosphere profiles. LASPLAST benefits from appropriate spatial resolution auxiliary information and a new probabilistic-based cloud flagging algorithm. For the first time for a satellite-derived LST product, pixel-level uncertainties characterized in terms of random, locally correlated, and systematic components are provided. The new GlobTemperature GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product has been validated for 1 year of AATSR data (2009) against in situ measurements acquired from "gold standard reference" stations: Gobabeb, Namibia, and Evora, Portugal; seven Surface Radiation Budget stations, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement station at Southern Great Plains. These data show average absolute biases for the GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product of 1.00 K in the daytime and 1.08 K in the nighttime. The improvements in data provenance including better accuracy, fully traceable retrieval coefficients, quantified uncertainty, and more detailed information in the new harmonized format of the GT_ATS_2P product will allow for more significant exploitation of the historical LST data record from the ATSRs and a valuable near-real-time service from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometers (SLSTRs).

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ISSUES IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN REGION

EPA Science Inventory

Mounting evidence from both instrumental and proxy records shows global climate continues to change. nalysis of near-surface temperatures over land and oceans during the past 130 years shows marked warming during the first half of this century with relatively steady temperatures ...

Analysis of spatial patterns underlying the linkage between solar irradiance and near-surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balling, Robert C.; Roy, Shouraseni Sen

2005-06-01

Many scientists have noted that global temperature anomalies were highly correlated with solar irradiance values until sometime in the 1970s, but since that time, the pronounced warming in the near-surface temperature record is not explained by variations or trends in solar receipt. In this investigation, spatial dimensions are explored in the relationship between irradiance and near-surface air temperatures. At the scale of individual 5° by 5° grid cells, the solar control on annual temperature variations is not statistically significant. When the temperature data are aggregated by 5° latitudinal bands, the solar - temperature connect is generally significant, and in every band, there is substantial evidence that a non-solar control has become dominant in recent decades. The buildup of greenhouse gases and/or some other global-scale feedback, such as widespread changes in atmospheric water vapor, emerge as potential explanations for the recent residual warming found in all latitudinal bands.

The Derivation Of A CO2 Fugacity Climatology From SOCAT's Global In SITU Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddijn-Murphy, L. M.; Woolf, D. K.; Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.

2013-12-01

The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) has made millions of global underway sea surface measurements of CO2 publicly available, all in a uniform format and presented as fugacity, fCO2. However, these fCO2 values are valid strictly only for the instantaneous temperature at measurement and are not ideal for climatology. We recomputed these fCO2 values for the measurement month to be applicable to climatological sea surface temperatures, extrapolated to reference year 2010. The data were then spatially interpolated on a 1°×1° grid of the global oceans to produce 12 monthly fCO2 distributions. Our climatology data will be shared with the science community.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Towards the use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-10

CICE spun-up state forced with climatological surface atmospheric fluxes. This run was initialized from Generalized Digital Environmental Model4...GDEM4) climatological temperature and salinity. It was configured with 41layers. 2. Global 0.72° HYCOM/CICE forced with NOGAPS for 2003-2012. The same...surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, and precipitation products. It was initialized from Levitus-PHC2 climatology . It was configured with 32 layers

Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic

1992-01-01

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Reproduction of 20th century inter- to multi-decadel surface temperature variablilty in radiatively forced coupled climate models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations of surface temperature were evaluated over the period 1902-1999 to assess their ability to reproduce historical temperature variability at 211 global locations. Model performance was evaluated using the running Mann Whitney-Z method, a technique th...

Surface Temperature variability from AIRS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzmaikin, A.; Dang, V. T.; Aumann, H. H.

2015-12-01

To address the existence and possible causes of the climate hiatus in the Earth's global temperature we investigate the trends and variability in the surface temperature using retrievals obtained from the measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and its companion instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), onboard of Aqua spacecraft in 2002-2014for the day and night conditions. The data used are L3 monthly means on a 1x1degree spatial grid. We separate the land and ocean temperatures, as well as temperatures in Artic, Antarctic and desert regions. We compare the satellite data with the new surface data produced by Karl et al. (2015) who denies the reality of the climate hiatus. The difference in the regional trends can help to explain why the global surface temperature remains almost unchanged but the frequency of occurrence of the extreme events increases under rising anthropogenic forcing. The day-night difference is an indicator of the anthropogenic trend. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

2018-05-01

Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment of fire’s influence on the global land air temperature during the 20th century through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. We quantify the impact of fire by comparing 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) as the model platform. Here, results show that fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems increased global land surface air temperature by 0.04 °C. Such changes significantly warmed the tropical savannas and southern Asia mainly by reducing latent heat flux, but cooledmore » Southeast China by enhancing the East Asian winter monsoon. 20% of the early 20th century global land warming can be attributed to fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems, providing a new mechanism for explaining the poorly-understood climate change.« less

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2017-04-03

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment of fire’s influence on the global land air temperature during the 20th century through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. We quantify the impact of fire by comparing 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) as the model platform. Here, results show that fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems increased global land surface air temperature by 0.04 °C. Such changes significantly warmed the tropical savannas and southern Asia mainly by reducing latent heat flux, but cooledmore » Southeast China by enhancing the East Asian winter monsoon. 20% of the early 20th century global land warming can be attributed to fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems, providing a new mechanism for explaining the poorly-understood climate change.« less

A framework for global diurnally-resolved observations of Land Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Remedios, J.; Pinnock, S.

2013-12-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Being a key boundary condition in land surface models, which determine the surface to atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and carbon; thus influencing cloud cover, precipitation and atmospheric chemistry predictions within Global models, the requirement for global diurnal observations of LST is well founded. Earth Observation satellites offer an opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST, with the appropriate exploitation of data from multiple instruments providing a capacity to resolve the diurnal cycle on a global scale. Here we present a framework for the production of global, diurnally resolved, data sets for LST which is a key request from users of LST data. We will show how the sampling of both geostationary and low earth orbit data sets could conceptually be employed to build combined, multi-sensor, pole-to-pole data sets. Although global averages already exist for individual instruments and merging of geostationary based LST is already being addressed operationally (Freitas, et al., 2013), there are still a number of important challenges to overcome. In this presentation, we will consider three of the issues still open in LST remote sensing: 1) the consistency amongst retrievals; 2) the clear-sky bias and its quantification; and 3) merging methods and the propagation of uncertainties. For example, the combined use of both geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and low earth orbit (LEO) data, and both infra-red and microwave data are relatively unexplored but are necessary to make the most progress. Hence this study will suggest what is state-of-the-art and how considerable advances can be made, accounting also for recent improvements in techniques and data quality. The GlobTemperature initiative under the Data User Element of ESA's 4th Earth Observation Envelope Programme (2013-2017), which aims to support the wider uptake of global-scale satellite LST by the research and operational user communities, will be a particularly important element in the development and subsequent provision of global diurnal LST. This new project, with its emphasis on promoting the coherence and openness of interactions within the LST and user communities, will be well placed to deliver appropriate data, engage a wide audience and hence be a key promoter of LST research and development for the LST community. References Freitas, S.C., Trigo, I.F., Macedo, J., Barroso, C., Silva, R., & Perdigao, R., 2013, Land surface temperature from multiple geostationary satellites, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 34, 3051-3068.

Sensitivity of Global Sea-Air CO2 Flux to Gas Transfer Algorithms, Climatological Wind Speeds, and Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Signorini, Sergio

2002-01-01

Sensitivity analyses of sea-air CO2 flux to gas transfer algorithms, climatological wind speeds, sea surface temperatures (SST) and salinity (SSS) were conducted for the global oceans and selected regional domains. Large uncertainties in the global sea-air flux estimates are identified due to different gas transfer algorithms, global climatological wind speeds, and seasonal SST and SSS data. The global sea-air flux ranges from -0.57 to -2.27 Gt/yr, depending on the combination of gas transfer algorithms and global climatological wind speeds used. Different combinations of SST and SSS global fields resulted in changes as large as 35% on the oceans global sea-air flux. An error as small as plus or minus 0.2 in SSS translates into a plus or minus 43% deviation on the mean global CO2 flux. This result emphasizes the need for highly accurate satellite SSS observations for the development of remote sensing sea-air flux algorithms.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate.

PubMed

Noever, D A; Brittain, A; Matsos, H C; Baskaran, S; Obenhuber, D

1996-01-01

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. Previous biome maps either remain unchanging or shift without taking into account climatic feedbacks such as radiation and temperature. We develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed temperature trend and order of magnitude change. The model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution that minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search, an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The method is to adjust biome areas subject to a constant global temperature and total surface area constraint. For regulating global temperature, oceans are found to dominate continental biomes. Algal beds are significant radiative levers as are other carbon intensive biomes including estuaries and tropical deciduous forests. To hold global temperature constant over the next 70 years this simulation requires that deserts decrease and forested areas increase. The effect of biome change on global temperature is revealed as a significant forecasting factor.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Wu, Dong L.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2017-03-01

We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm) and total solar irradiance (TSI). From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of 0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to 0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

Continued Development of a Global Heat Transfer Measurement System at AEDC Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurits, Inna; Lewis, M. J.; Hamner, M. P.; Norris, Joseph D.

2007-01-01

Heat transfer rates are an extremely important consideration in the design of hypersonic vehicles such as atmospheric reentry vehicles. This paper describes the development of a data reduction methodology to evaluate global heat transfer rates using surface temperature-time histories measured with the temperature sensitive paint (TSP) system at AEDC Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel 9. As a part of this development effort, a scale model of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was painted with TSP and multiple sequences of high resolution images were acquired during a five run test program. Heat transfer calculation from TSP data in Tunnel 9 is challenging due to relatively long run times, high Reynolds number environment and the desire to utilize typical stainless steel wind tunnel models used for force and moment testing. An approach to reduce TSP data into convective heat flux was developed, taking into consideration the conditions listed above. Surface temperatures from high quality quantitative global temperature maps acquired with the TSP system were then used as an input into the algorithm. Preliminary comparison of the heat flux calculated using the TSP surface temperature data with the value calculated using the standard thermocouple data is reported.

An updated global grid point surface air temperature anomaly data set: 1851--1990

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sepanski, R.J.; Boden, T.A.; Daniels, R.C.

1991-10-01

This document presents land-based monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951--1970 reference period mean) on a 5{degree} latitude by 10{degree} longitude global grid. Monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957--1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65{degree}S to 85{degree}S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed inmore » generating regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. This document also presents the monthly mean temperature records for the individual stations that were used to generate the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere station data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form. 14 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.« less

Improving Satellite-Based Snowfall Estimation: A New Method for Classifying Precipitation Phase and Estimating Snowfall Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sims, Elizabeth M.

In order to study the impact of climate change on the Earth's hydrologic cycle, global information about snowfall is needed. To achieve global measurements of snowfall over both land and ocean, satellites are necessary. While satellites provide the best option for making measurements on a global scale, the task of estimating snowfall rate from these measurements is a complex problem. Satellite-based radar, for example, measures effective radar reflectivity, Ze, which can be converted to snowfall rate, S, via a Ze-S relation. Choosing the appropriate Ze-S relation to apply is a complicated problem, however, because quantities such as particle shape, size distribution, and terminal velocity are often unknown, and these quantities directly affect the Ze-S relation. Additionally, it is important to correctly classify the phase of precipitation. A misclassification can result in order-of-magnitude errors in the estimated precipitation rate. Using global ground-based observations over multiple years, the influence of different geophysical parameters on precipitation phase is investigated, with the goal of obtaining an improved method for determining precipitation phase. The parameters studied are near-surface air temperature, atmospheric moisture, low-level vertical temperature lapse rate, surface skin temperature, surface pressure, and land cover type. To combine the effects of temperature and moisture, wet-bulb temperature, instead of air temperature, is used as a key parameter for separating solid and liquid precipitation. Results show that in addition to wet-bulb temperature, vertical temperature lapse rate also affects the precipitation phase. For example, at a near-surface wet-bulb temperature of 0°C, a lapse rate of 6°C km-1 results in an 86 percent conditional probability of solid precipitation, while a lapse rate of -2°C km-1 results in a 45 percent probability. For near-surface wet-bulb temperatures less than 0°C, skin temperature affects precipitation phase, although the effect appears to be minor. Results also show that surface pressure appears to influence precipitation phase in some cases, however, this dependence is not clear on a global scale. Land cover type does not appear to affect precipitation phase. Based on these findings, a parameterization scheme has been developed that accepts available meteorological data as input, and returns the conditional probability of solid precipitation. Ze-S relations for various particle shapes, size distributions, and terminal velocities have been developed as part of this research. These Ze-S relations have been applied to radar reflectivity data from the CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar to calculate the annual mean snowfall rate. The calculated snowfall rates are then compared to surface observations of snowfall. An effort to determine which particle shape best represents the type of snow falling in various locations across the United States has been made. An optimized Ze-S relation has been developed, which combines multiple Ze-S relations in order to minimize error when compared to the surface snowfall observations. Additionally, the resulting surface snowfall rate is compared with the CloudSat standard product for snowfall rate.

Global Soil Moisture Estimation from L-Band Satellite Data: The Impact of Radiative Transfer Modeling in Assimilation and Retrieval Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Lannoy, Gabrielle; Reichle, Rolf; Gruber, Alexander; Bechtold, Michel; Quets, Jan; Vrugt, Jasper; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

2018-01-01

The SMOS and SMAP missions have collected a wealth of global L-band Brightness temperature (Tb) observations. The retrieval of surface Soil moisture estimates, and the estimation of other geophysical Variables, such as root-zone soil moisture and temperature, via data Assimilation into land surface models largely depends on accurate Radiative transfer modeling (RTM). This presentation will focus on various configuration aspects of the RTM (i) for the inversion of SMOS Tb to surface soil moisture, and (ii) for the forward modeling as part of a SMOS Tb data assimilation System to estimate a consistent set of geophysical land surface Variables, using the GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model.

Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

PubMed

Crabbe, M James C

2008-10-01

Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

Linkages Between Multiscale Global Sea Surface Temperature Change and Precipitation Variabilities in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Weng, Heng-Yi

1999-01-01

A growing number of evidence indicates that there are coherent patterns of variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly not only at interannual timescales, but also at decadal-to-inter-decadal timescale and beyond. The multi-scale variabilities of SST anomaly have shown great impacts on climate. In this work, we analyze multiple timescales contained in the globally averaged SST anomaly with and their possible relationship with the summer and winter rainfall in the United States over the past four decades.

Global upper ocean heat storage response to radiative forcing from changing solar irradiance and increasing greenhouse gas/aerosol concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Lean, Judith

1998-09-01

We constructed gridded fields of diabatic heat storage changes in the upper ocean from 20°S to 60°N from historical temperature profiles collected from 1955 to 1996. We filtered these 42 year records for periods of 8 to 15 years and 15 to 30 years, producing depth-weighted vertical average temperature (DVT) changes from the sea surface to the top of the main pycnocline. Basin and global averages of these DVT changes reveal decadal and interdecadal variability in phase across the Indian, Pacific, Atlantic, and Global Oceans, each significantly correlated with changing surface solar radiative forcing at a lag of 0+/-2 years. Decadal and interdecadal changes in global average DVT are 0.06°+/-0.01°K and 0.04°K+/-0.01°K, respectively, the same as those expected from consideration of the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation balance (i.e., 0.3°K per Wm-2) in response to 0.1% changes in surface solar radiative forcing of 0.2 Wm-2 and 0.15 Wm-2, respectively. Global spatial patterns of DVT changes are similar to temperature changes simulated in coupled ocean-atmosphere models, suggesting that natural modes of Earth's variability are phase-locked to the solar irradiance cycle. A trend in global average DVT of 0.15°K over this 42 year record cannot be explained by changing surface solar radiative forcing. But when we consider the 0.5 Wm-2 increase in surface radiative forcing estimated from the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol (GGA) concentrations over this period [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995], the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation balance yields this observed change. Moreover, the sum of solar and GGA surface radiative forcing can explain the relatively sharp increase in global and basin average DVT in the late 1970's.

Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh Kumar

2018-01-01

The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This study focuses on the annual mean energy fluxes and tries to link it with the systematic cold biases in the 2 m air temperature, particularly over the land regions. The imbalance in the long term mean global averaged energy fluxes are also evaluated. The global averaged imbalance at the surface and at the TOA is found to be 0.37 and 6.43 Wm-2, respectively. It is shown that CFSv2 overestimates the land surface albedo, particularly over the snow region, which in turn contributes to the cold biases in 2 m air temperature. On the other hand, surface albedo is highly underestimated over the coastal region around Antarctica and that may have contributed to the warm bias over that oceanic region. This study highlights the need for improvements in the parameterization of snow/sea-ice albedo scheme for a realistic simulation of surface temperature and that may have implications on the global energy imbalance in the model.

Impact of Geoengineering Schemes on the Global Hydrological Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Duffy, P; Taylor, K

2007-12-07

The rapidly rising CO{sub 2} level in the atmosphere has led to proposals of climate stabilization via 'Geoengineering' schemes that would mitigate climate change by intentionally reducing the solar radiation incident on earth's surface. In this paper, we address the impact of these climate stabilization schemes on the global hydrological cycle, using equilibrium simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We show that insolation reductions sufficient to offset global-scale temperature increases lead to a decrease in the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. This occurs because solar forcing is more effective in driving changesmore » in global mean evaporation than is CO{sub 2} forcing of a similar magnitude. In the model used here, the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the percentage change in global mean precipitation per degree warming, is 2.4% for solar forcing, but only 1.5% for CO{sub 2} forcing. Although other models and the climate system itself may differ quantitatively from this result, the conclusion can be understood based on simple considerations of the surface energy budget and thus is likely to be robust. Compared to changing temperature by altering greenhouse gas concentrations, changing temperature by varying insolation results in larger changes in net radiative fluxes at the surface; these are compensated by larger changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Hence the hydrological cycle is more sensitive to temperature adjustment via changes in insolation than changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that an alteration in solar forcing might offset temperature changes or hydrological changes from greenhouse warming, but could not cancel both at once.« less

Long-range persistence in the global mean surface temperature and the global warming "time bomb"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, M.; Rypdal, K.

2012-04-01

Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Maximum Likelihood Estimations (MLE) based on instrumental data over the last 160 years indicate that there is Long-Range Persistence (LRP) in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) on time scales of months to decades. The persistence is much higher in sea surface temperature than in land temperatures. Power spectral analysis of multi-model, multi-ensemble runs of global climate models indicate further that this persistence may extend to centennial and maybe even millennial time-scales. We also support these conclusions by wavelet variogram analysis, DFA, and MLE of Northern hemisphere mean surface temperature reconstructions over the last two millennia. These analyses indicate that the GMST is a strongly persistent noise with Hurst exponent H>0.9 on time scales from decades up to at least 500 years. We show that such LRP can be very important for long-term climate prediction and for the establishment of a "time bomb" in the climate system due to a growing energy imbalance caused by the slow relaxation to radiative equilibrium under rising anthropogenic forcing. We do this by the construction of a multi-parameter dynamic-stochastic model for the GMST response to deterministic and stochastic forcing, where LRP is represented by a power-law response function. Reconstructed data for total forcing and GMST over the last millennium are used with this model to estimate trend coefficients and Hurst exponent for the GMST on multi-century time scale by means of MLE. Ensembles of solutions generated from the stochastic model also allow us to estimate confidence intervals for these estimates.

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yuanchong; Rossow, William B.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2007-01-01

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty.

Infrared Observations of the Orion Capsule During EFT-1 Hypersonic Reentry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, Thomas J.; Rufer, Shann J.; Schuster, David M.; Mendeck, Gavin F.; Oliver, A. Brandon; Schwartz, Richard J.; Verstynen, Harry A.; Mercer, C. David; Tack, Steven; Ingram, Ben;

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

James D. Wickham; Timothy G. Wade; Kurt H. Riitters

2012-01-01

Global climate models (GCM) investigating the effects of land cover on climate have found that replacing extra-tropical forest with cropland promotes cooling. We compared cropland and forest surface temperatures across the continental United States in 16 cells that were approximately 1◦ × 2◦ using 1 km2 MODIS land surface...

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate models (GCM) investigating the effects of land cover on climate have found that replacing extra-tropical forest with cropland promotes cooling. We compared cropland and forest surface temperatures across the continental United States in 16 cells that were approxim...

Applications of Land Surface Temperature from Microwave Observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key input for physically-based retrieval algorithms of hydrological states and fluxes. Yet, it remains a poorly constrained parameter for global scale studies. The main two observational methods to remotely measure T are based on thermal infrared (TIR) observation...

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

2018-05-01

The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

In Situ Global Sea Surface Salinity and Variability from the NCEI Global Thermosalinograph Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Boyer, T.; Zhang, H. M.

2017-12-01

Sea surface salinity (SSS) plays an important role in the global ocean circulations. The variations of sea surface salinity are key indicators of changes in air-sea water fluxes. Using nearly 30 years of in situ measurements of sea surface salinity from thermosalinographs, we will evaluate the variations of the sea surface salinity in the global ocean. The sea surface salinity data used are from our newly-developed NCEI Global Thermosalinograph Database - NCEI-TSG. This database provides a comprehensive set of quality-controlled in-situ sea-surface salinity and temperature measurements collected from over 340 vessels during the period 1989 to the present. The NCEI-TSG is the world's most complete TSG dataset, containing all data from the different TSG data assembly centers, e.g. COAPS (SAMOS), IODE (GOSUD) and AOML, with more historical data from NCEI's archive to be added. Using this unique dataset, we will investigate the spatial variations of the global SSS and its variability. Annual and interannual variability will also be studied at selected regions.

Melting in Martian Snowbanks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zent, A. P.; Sutter, B.

2005-01-01

Precipitation as snow is an emerging paradigm for understanding water flow on Mars, which gracefully resolves many outstanding uncertainties in climatic and geomorphic interpretation. Snowfall does not require a powerful global greenhouse to effect global precipitation. It has long been assumed that global average temperatures greater than 273K are required to sustain liquid water at the surface via rainfall and runoff. Unfortunately, the best greenhouse models to date predict global mean surface temperatures early in Mars' history that differ little from today's, unless exceptional conditions are invoked. Snowfall however, can occur at temperatures less than 273K; all that is required is saturation of the atmosphere. At global temperatures lower than 273K, H2O would have been injected into the atmosphere by impacts and volcanic eruptions during the Noachian, and by obliquity-driven climate oscillations more recently. Snow cover can accumulate for a considerable period, and be available for melting during local spring and summer, unless sublimation rates are sufficient to remove the entire snowpack. We decided to explore the physics that controls the melting of snow in the high-latitude regions of Mars to understand the frequency and drainage of snowmelt in the high martian latitudes.

Modeling of surface temperature effects on mixed material migration in NSTX-U

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, J. H.; Jaworski, M. A.; Schmid, K.

2016-10-01

NSTX-U will initially operate with graphite walls, periodically coated with thin lithium films to improve plasma performance. However, the spatial and temporal evolution of these films during and after plasma exposure is poorly understood. The WallDYN global mixed-material surface evolution model has recently been applied to the NSTX-U geometry to simulate the evolution of poloidally inhomogenous mixed C/Li/O plasma-facing surfaces. The WallDYN model couples local erosion and deposition processes with plasma impurity transport in a non-iterative, self-consistent manner that maintains overall material balance. Temperature-dependent sputtering of lithium has been added to WallDYN, utilizing an adatom sputtering model developed from test stand experimental data. Additionally, a simplified temperature-dependent diffusion model has been added to WallDYN so as to capture the intercalation of lithium into a graphite bulk matrix. The sensitivity of global lithium migration patterns to changes in surface temperature magnitude and distribution will be examined. The effect of intra-discharge increases in surface temperature due to plasma heating, such as those observed during NSTX Liquid Lithium Divertor experiments, will also be examined. Work supported by US DOE contract DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce.

Does surface roughness dominate biophysical forcing of land use and land cover change in the eastern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burakowski, E. A.; Tawfik, A. B.; Ouimette, A.; Lepine, L. C.; Ollinger, S. V.; Bonan, G. B.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Novick, K. A.

2016-12-01

Changes in land use, land cover, or both promote changes in surface temperature that can amplify or dampen long-term trends driven by natural and anthropogenic climate change by modifying the surface energy budget, primarily through differences in albedo, evapotranspiration, and aerodynamic roughness. Recent advances in variable resolution global models provide the tools necessary to investigate local and global impacts of land use and land cover change by embedding a high-resolution grid over areas of interest in a seamless and computationally efficient manner. Here, we used two eddy covariance tower clusters in the Eastern US (University of New Hampshire UNH and Duke Forest) to validate simulation of surface energy fluxes and properties by the uncoupled Community Land Model (PTCLM4.5) and coupled land-atmosphere Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM1.3). Surface energy fluxes and properties are generally well captured by the models for grassland sites, however forested sites tend to underestimate latent heat and overestimate sensible heat flux. Surface roughness emerged as the dominant biophysical forcing factor affecting surface temperature in the eastern United States, generally leading to warmer nighttime temperatures and cooler daytime temperatures. However, the sign and magnitude of the roughness effect on surface temperature was highly sensitive to the calculation of aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer.

A Multiyear Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Global Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Shie, Chung-Lin; Atlas, Robert M.; Ardizzone, Joe; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Evaporation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and the surface heat budget, while the wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation. The global air-sea fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat, radiation, and freshwater (precipitation-evaporation) are the forcing for driving oceanic circulation and, hence, are essential for understanding the general circulation of global oceans. The global air-sea fluxes are required for driving ocean models and validating coupled ocean-atmosphere global models. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from the Special Sensor microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Daily turbulent fluxes were derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) validated well with that of the collocated radiosonde observations over the global oceans. Furthermore, the retrieved daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes were found to agree well with that of the in situ measurements (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The global distributions of 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes will be presented. In addition, the global distributions of 1990-93 annual-means turbulent fluxes and input variables will be compared with those of UWM/COADS covering the same period. The latter is based on the COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) and is recognized to be one of the best climatological analyses of fluxes derived from ship observations.

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; Fu, Q.

2016-01-01

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO4-induced PET changes.

Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baird, Stephen L.

2005-01-01

Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated…

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature: Workshop 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoku, E. G.

1983-01-01

Satellite measurements of sea surface temperature are now possible using a variety of sensors. The present accuracies of these methods are in the range of 0.5 to 2.0 C. This makes them potentially useful for synoptic studies of ocean currents and for global monitoring of climatological anomalies. To improve confidence in the satellite data, objective evaluations of sensor accuracies are necessary, and the conditions under which these accuracies degrade need to be understood. The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on the Nimbus-7 satellite was studied. Sea surface temperatures, derived from November 1979 SMMR data, were compared globally against ship measurements and climatology, using facilities of the JPL Pilot Ocean Data System. Methods for improved data analysis and plans for additional workshops to incorporate data from other sensors were discussed.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Linkages Between Global Vegetation and Climate: An Analysis Based on NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Data. Degree awarded by Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Los, Sietse Oene

1998-01-01

A monthly global 1 degree by 1 degree data set from 1982 until 1990 was derived from data collected by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on board the NOAA 7, 9, and 11 satellites. This data set was used to study the interactions between variations in climate and variations in the "greenness" of vegetation. Studies with the Colorado State University atmospheric general circulation model coupled to the Simple Biosphere model showed a large sensitivity of the hydrological balance to changes in vegetation at low latitudes. The depletion of soil moisture as a result of increased vegetation density provided a negative feedback in an otherwise positive association between increased vegetation, increased evaporation, and increased precipitation proposed by Charney and coworkers. Analysis of climate data showed, at temperate to high latitudes, a positive association between variation in land surface temperature, sea surface temperature and vegetation greenness. At low latitudes the data indicated a positive association between variations in sea surface temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness. The variations in mid- to high latitude temperatures affected the global average greenness and this could provide an explanation for the increased carbon uptake by the terrestrial surface over the past couple of decades.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Observed Local Impacts of Global Irrigation on Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Dirmeyer, P.

2017-12-01

Agricultural irrigation has significant potential for altering local climate through reducing soil albedo, increasing evapotranspiration, and enabling greater leaf area. Numerous studies using regional or global climate models have demonstrated the cooling effects of irrigation on mean and extreme temperature, especially over regions where irrigation is extensive. However, these model-based results have not been validated due to the limitations of observational datasets. In this study, multiple satellite-based products, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data sets, are used to isolate and quantify the local impacts of irrigation on surface climate over the irrigated regions, which are derived from the Global Map of Irrigation Areas (GMIA). The relationships among soil moisture, albedo, evapotranspiration, and surface temperature are explored. Strong evaporative cooling of irrigation on daytime surface temperature is found over the arid and semi-arid regions, such as California's Central Valley, the Great Plains, and central Asia. However, the cooling effects are less evident in most areas of eastern China, India, and the Lower Mississippi River Basin in spite of extensive irrigation over these regions. Results are also compared with irrigation experiments using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to assess the model's ability to represent land-atmosphere interactions in regards to irrigation.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Using microwave observations to estimate land surface temperature during cloudy conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land surface temperature (LST), a key ingredient for physically-based retrieval algorithms of hydrological states and fluxes, remains a poorly constrained parameter for global scale studies. The main two observational methods to remotely measure T are based on thermal infrared (TIR) observations and...

Flash heating on the early Earth.

PubMed

Lyons, J R; Vasavada, A R

1999-03-01

It has been suggested that very large impact events (approximately 500 km diameter impactors) sterilized the surface of the young Earth by producing enough rock vapor to boil the oceans. Here, we consider surface heating due to smaller impactors, and demonstrate that surface temperatures conductive to organic synthesis resulted. In particular, we focus on the synthesis of thermal peptides. Previously, laboratory experiments have demonstrated that dry heating a mixture of amino acids containing excess Asp, Glu, or Lys to temperatures approximately 170 degrees C for approximately 2 hours yields polypeptides. It has been argued that such temperature conditions would not have been available on the early Earth. Here we demonstrate, by analogy with the K/T impact, that the requisite temperatures are achieved on sand surfaces during the atmospheric reentry of fine ejecta particles produced by impacts of bolides approximately 10-20 km in diameter, assuming approximately 1-100 PAL CO2. Impactors of this size struck the Earth with a frequency of approximately 1 per 10(4)-10(5) y at 4.2 Ga. Smaller bolides produced negligible global surface heating, whereas bolides > 30 km in diameter yielded solid surface temperatures > 1000 K, high enough to pyrolyze amino acids and other organic compounds. Thus, peptide formation would have occurred globally for a relatively narrow range of bolide sizes.

Cosmic-Ray Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Q.-B.

2013-07-01

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4 and HCFCs), CO2, total O3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 25 % of the Antarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO2 concentration during 1850-1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96-0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970-2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of 0.6°C in 1970-2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O3 hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.

1973-01-01

Studies are reported of the long term responses of the model atmosphere to anomalies in snow cover and sea surface temperature. An abstract of a previously issued report on the computed response to surface anomalies in a global atmospheric model is presented, and the experiments on the effects of transient sea surface temperature on the Mintz-Arakawa atmospheric model are reported.

Tropical-Cyclone Formation: Theory and Idealized Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

to saturation at the sea-surface temperature and the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface...and Atmospheric Administration; IFEX = Intensity Forecasting Experiment. 15GFS = NOAA Global Forecasting System ; NOGAPS = Navy Operational Global... Atmospheric Prediction System ; UKMET = United Kingdom Meteorological Office. 16 http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2010.html 18 overcomes

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Relationship Between Near-Surface Air Temperature and Satellite Land Surface Temperatures Using 17 Years of Data from the ATSR Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Good, E.; Bulgin, C.; Remedios, J. J.

2017-12-01

Surface temperatures (ST) over land have traditionally been measured at weather stations. There are many parts of the globe with very few stations, e.g. across much of Africa, leading to gaps in ST datasets, affecting our understanding of how ST is changing, and the impacts of extreme events. Satellites can provide global ST data but these observations represent how hot the land ST (LST; including the uppermost parts of e.g. trees, buildings) is to touch, whereas stations measure the air temperature just above the surface (T2m). Satellite LST data may only be available in cloud-free conditions and data records are frequently <10-15 years in length. Consequently, satellite LST data have not yet featured widely in climate studies. In this study, the relationship between clear-sky satellite LST and all-sky T2m is characterised in space and time using >17 years of data. The analysis uses a new monthly LST climate data record (CDR) based on the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) series, which has been produced within the European Space Agency GlobTemperature project. The results demonstrate the dependency of the global LST-T2m differences on location, land cover, vegetation and elevation. LSTnight ( 10 pm local solar time) is found to be closely coupled with minimum T2m (Tmin) and the two temperatures generally consistent to within ±5 °C (global median LSTnight- Tmin= 1.8 °C, interquartile range = 3.8 °C). The LSTday ( 10 am local time)-maximum T2m (Tmax) variability is higher because LST is strongly influenced by insolation and surface regime (global median LSTday-Tmax= -0.1 °C, interquartile range = 8.1 °C). Correlations for both temperature pairs are typically >0.9 outside of the tropics. A crucial aspect of this study is a comparison between the monthly global anomaly time series of LST and CRUTEM4 T2m. The time series agree remarkably well, with a correlation of 0.9 and 90% of the CDR anomalies falling within the T2m 95% confidence limits (see figure). This analysis provides independent verification of the 1995-2012 T2m anomaly time series, suggesting that LST can provide a complementary perspective on global ST change. The results presented give justification for increasing use of satellite LST data in climate and weather science, both as an independent variable, and to augment T2m data acquired at weather stations.

A spatiotemporal analysis of the relationship between near-surface air temperature and satellite land surface temperatures using 17 years of data from the ATSR series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Elizabeth J.; Ghent, Darren J.; Bulgin, Claire E.; Remedios, John J.

2017-09-01

The relationship between satellite land surface temperature (LST) and ground-based observations of 2 m air temperature (T2m) is characterized in space and time using >17 years of data. The analysis uses a new monthly LST climate data record (CDR) based on the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer series, which has been produced within the European Space Agency GlobTemperature project (http://www.globtemperature.info/). Global LST-T2m differences are analyzed with respect to location, land cover, vegetation fraction, and elevation, all of which are found to be important influencing factors. LSTnight ( 10 P.M. local solar time, clear-sky only) is found to be closely coupled with minimum T2m (Tmin, all-sky) and the two temperatures generally consistent to within ±5°C (global median LSTnight-Tmin = 1.8°C, interquartile range = 3.8°C). The LSTday ( 10 A.M. local solar time, clear-sky only)-maximum T2m (Tmax, all-sky) variability is higher (global median LSTday-Tmax = -0.1°C, interquartile range = 8.1°C) because LST is strongly influenced by insolation and surface regime. Correlations for both temperature pairs are typically >0.9 outside of the tropics. The monthly global and regional anomaly time series of LST and T2m—which are completely independent data sets—compare remarkably well. The correlation between the data sets is 0.9 for the globe with 90% of the CDR anomalies falling within the T2m 95% confidence limits. The results presented in this study present a justification for increasing use of satellite LST data in climate and weather science, both as an independent variable, and to augment T2m data acquired at meteorological stations.

Comparison of AIRS Version-6 OLR Climatologies and Anomaly Time Series with Those of CERES and MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae; Iredell, Lena

2016-01-01

RCs of AIRS and MERRA-2 500 mb specific humidity agree very well in terms of spatial patterns, but MERRA-2 ARCs are larger in magnitude and show a spurious moistening globally and over Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 fractional cloud cover ARCs agree less well with each other. MERRA-2 shows a spurious global mean increase in cloud cover that is not found in AIRS, including a large spurious cloud increase in Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 ARCs of surface skin and surface air temperatures are all similar to each other in patterns. AIRS shows a small global warming over the 13 year period, while MERRA-2 shows a small global cooling. This difference results primarily from spurious MERRA-2 temperature trends at high latitudes and over Central Africa. These differences all contribute to the spurious negative global MERRA-2 OLR trend. AIRS Version-6 confirms that 2015 is the warmest year on record and that the Earth's surface is continuing to warm.

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

2017-12-01

Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface water and energy balances, highlighting the need to incorporate human activities such as irrigation into the framework of global climate models and Earth system models for better prediction of future changes under increasing human influence and continuing global climate change.

Influence of inhomogeneous surface heat capacity on the estimation of radiative response coefficients in a two-zone energy balance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jungmin; Choi, Yong-Sang

2018-04-01

Observationally constrained values of the global radiative response coefficient are pivotal to assess the reliability of modeled climate feedbacks. A widely used approach is to measure transient global radiative imbalance related to surface temperature changes. However, in this approach, a potential error in the estimate of radiative response coefficients may arise from surface inhomogeneity in the climate system. We examined this issue theoretically using a simple two-zone energy balance model. Here, we dealt with the potential error by subtracting the prescribed radiative response coefficient from those calculated within the two-zone framework. Each zone was characterized by the different magnitude of the radiative response coefficient and the surface heat capacity, and the dynamical heat transport in the atmosphere between the zones was parameterized as a linear function of the temperature difference between the zones. Then, the model system was forced by randomly generated monthly varying forcing mimicking time-varying forcing like an observation. The repeated simulations showed that inhomogeneous surface heat capacity causes considerable miscalculation (down to -1.4 W m-2 K-1 equivalent to 31.3% of the prescribed value) in the global radiative response coefficient. Also, the dynamical heat transport reduced this miscalculation driven by inhomogeneity of surface heat capacity. Therefore, the estimation of radiative response coefficients using the surface temperature-radiation relation is appropriate for homogeneous surface areas least affected by the exterior.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Development of a Pressure Sensitive Paint System with Correction for Temperature Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simmons, Kantis A.

1995-01-01

Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) is known to provide a global image of pressure over a model surface. However, improvements in its accuracy and reliability are needed. Several factors contribute to the inaccuracy of PSP. One major factor is that luminescence is temperature dependent. To correct the luminescence of the pressure sensing component for changes in temperature, a temperature sensitive luminophore incorporated in the paint allows the user to measure both pressure and temperature simultaneously on the surface of a model. Magnesium Octaethylporphine (MgOEP) was used as a temperature sensing luminophore, with the pressure sensing luminophore, Platinum Octaethylporphine (PtOEP), to correct for temperature variations in model surface pressure measurements.

PERSPECTIVE Working towards a community-wide understanding of satellite skin temperature observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shreve, Cheney

2010-12-01

With more than sixty free and publicly available high-quality datasets, including ecosystem variables, radiation budget variables, and land cover products, the MODIS instrument and the MODIS scientific team have contributed significantly to scientific investigations of ecosystems across the globe. The MODIS instrument, launched in December 1999, has 36 spectral bands, a viewing swath of 2330 km, and acquires data at 250 m, 500 m, and 1000 m spatial resolution every one to two days. Radiation budget variables include surface reflectance, skin temperature, emissivity, and albedo, to list a few. Ecosystem variables include several vegetation indices and productivity measures. Land cover characteristics encompass land cover classifications as well as model parameters and vegetation classifications. Many of these products are instrumental in constraining global climate models and climate change studies, as well as monitoring events such as the recent flooding in Pakistan, the unprecedented oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, or phytoplankton bloom in the Barents Sea. While product validation efforts by the MODIS scientific team are both vigorous and continually improving, validation is unquestionably one of the most difficult tasks when dealing with remotely derived datasets, especially at the global scale. The quality and availability of MODIS data have led to widespread usage in the scientific community that has further contributed to validation and development of the MODIS products. In their recent paper entitled 'Land surface skin temperature climatology: benefitting from the strengths of satellite observations', Jin and Dickinson review the scientific theory behind, and demonstrate application of, a MODIS temperature product: surface skin temperature. Utilizing datasets from the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN), daily skin and air temperature from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, and MODIS products (skin temperature, albedo, land cover, water vapor, cloud cover), they show that skin temperature is clearly a different physical parameter from air temperature and varies from air temperature in magnitude, response to atmospheric conditions, and diurnal phase. Although the accuracy of skin temperature (Tskin) algorithms has improved to within 0.5-1°C for field measurements and clear-sky satellite observations (Becker and Li 1995, Goetz et al 1995, Wan and Dozier 1996), general confusion regarding the physical definition of 'surface temperature' and how it can be used for climate studies has persisted throughout the scientific community and limited the applications of these data (Jin and Dickinson 2010). For example, satellite sea surface temperature was used as evidence of global climate change instead of skin temperature in the IPCC 2001 and 2007 reports (Jin and Dickinson 2010). This work provides clarity in the theoretical definition of temperature variables, demonstrates the difference between air and skin temperature, and aids the understanding of the MODIS Tskin product, which could be very beneficial for future climate studies. As outlined by Jin and Dickinson, 'surface temperature' is a vague term commonly used in reference to air temperature, aerodynamic temperature, and skin temperature. Air temperature (Tair), or thermodynamic temperature, is measured by an in situ instrument usually 1.5-2 m above the ground. Aerodynamic temperature (Taero) refers to the temperature at the height of the roughness length of heat. Satellite derived skin temperature (Tskin) is the radiometric temperature derived from the inverse of Planck's function. While these different temperature variables are typically correlated, they differ as a result of environmental conditions (e.g. land cover and sky conditions; Jin and Dickinson 2010). With an extensive network of Tair measurements, some have questioned the benefits of using Tskin at all (Peterson et al 1997, 1998). Tskin and Tair can vary depending on land cover or sky conditions and variations may be large, e.g., for sparsely vegetated areas where net radiation is largely balanced by sensible heat flux (Hall et al 1992, Sun and Mahrt 1995, Jin et al 1997). Tskin can be higher than Taero at midday and lower at night (Sun and Mahrt 1995) and some models use Taero to approximate surface radiative temperature (Hubband and Monteith 1986). One of the strengths of the MODIS instrument is the simultaneous collection of surface and atmospheric conditions. By incorporating a range of MODIS variables in their comparison to Tskin, the authors examine the relationship of Tskin to atmospheric and surface conditions. Results from their global evaluation of Tskin highlight its variability on an inter-annual basis, its variation with solar zenith angle, and diurnal variations, which are not achievable with Tair measurements. Comparison with land cover type illustrates the seasonality of Tskin for different land covers. Comparison with the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) suggests more vegetation reduces skin temperature. Using the MODIS albedo, they demonstrate a clear relationship between yearly averaged Tskin and land surface albedo. Lastly, their examination of water vapor and cloud cover in comparison to Tskin suggests similar seasonality between these two variables. The MODIS Tskin product is not without uncertainty; retrieving Tskin requires a calculation of radiative transfer to account for atmospheric emission and molecular absorption, which is time and resource intensive (Jin and Dickinson 2010). Additionally, surface emissivity, instrument noise, and view angle geometry contribute to error in Tskin estimations (Jin and Dickinson 2010). The transparency of the scientific theory underlying this work, and the clear demonstration of the distinction between temperature measures on varying scales, demonstrates the usefulness of Tskin despite the uncertainties. Perhaps equally as important is the tone; in a time when the controversy surrounding climate change is peaking and the very ethics of the scientific community are being questioned, it is more critical than ever to be transparent in one's work and to assist the scientific community in understanding the tools we have available to us for investigating climate change. References Becker F and Li Z-L 1995 Surface temperature and emissivity at different scales: definition, measurement and related problems Remote Sensing Rev. 12 225-53 Goetz S J, Halthore R, Hall F G and Markham B L 1995 Surface temperature retrieval in a temperate grassland with multi-resolution sensors J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 100 25397-410 Hall F G, Huemmrich K F, Goetz P J, Sellers P J and Nickeson J E 1992 Satellite remote sensing of the surface energy balance: success, failures and unresolved issues in FIFE J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 97 19061-90 Jin M and Dickinson R E 2010 Land surface skin temperature climatology: benefitting from the strengths of satellite observations Environ. Res. Lett. 5 044004 Jin M, Dickinson R E and Vogelmann A M 1997 A comparison of CCM2/BATS skin temperature and surface-air temperature with satellite and surface observations J. Climate 10 1505-24 Hubband N D S and Monteith J L 1986 Radiative surface temperature and energy balance of a wheat canopy Boundary Layer Meteorol. 36 107-16 Peterson T C and Vose R S 1997 An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature data base Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78 2837-49 Peterson T C, Karl T R, Jamason P F, Knight R and Easterling D R 1998 The first difference method: maximizing station density for the calculation of long-term global temperature change J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 103 25967-74 Sun J and Mahrt L 1995 Determination of surface fluxes from the surface radiative temperature Atmos. Sci. 52 1096-106 Wan Z and Dozier J 1996 A generalized split-window algorithm for retrieving land-surface temperature from space IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing 34 892-905

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Atmospheric radiation measurement program facilities newsletter, September 2001.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holdridge, D. J.

Our Changing Climate--Is our climate really changing? How do we measure climate change? How can we predict what Earth's climate will be like for generations to come? One focus of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is to improve scientific climate models enough to achieve reliable regional prediction of future climate. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the global mean surface temperature has increased by 0.5-1.0 F since the late 19th century. The 20th century's 10 warmest years all occurred in the last 15 years of the century, with 1998 being the warmest year of record. The global meanmore » surface temperature is measured by a network of temperature-sensing instruments distributed around the world, including ships, ocean buoys, and weather stations on land. The data from this network are retrieved and analyzed by various organizations, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the World Meteorological Organization. Worldwide temperature records date back to 1860. To reconstruct Earth's temperature history before 1860, scientists use limited temperature records, along with proxy indicators such as tree rings, pollen records, and analysis of air frozen in ancient ice. The solar energy received from the sun drives Earth's weather and climate. Some of this energy is reflected and filtered by the atmosphere, but most is absorbed by Earth's surface. The absorbed solar radiation warms the surface and is re-radiated as heat energy into the atmosphere. Some atmospheric gases, called greenhouse gases, trap some of the re-emitted heat, keeping the surface temperature regulated and suitable for sustaining life. Although the greenhouse effect is natural, some evidence indicates that human activities are producing increased levels of some greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Scientists believe that the combustion of fossil fuels is responsible for the increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According to the EPA, the burning of fossil fuels for cars and trucks, the heating of homes and businesses, and the operation of power plants account for approximately 98% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. The increase of greenhouse gases will, theoretically, enhance the greenhouse effect by trapping more of the heat energy emitted by Earth's surface, thus increasing the surface temperatures on a global scale. Scientists expect that the global average surface temperature could rise 1-4.5 F in the next 50 years and as much as 10 F in the next century. Global warming could potentially have harmful effects on human health, water resources, forests, agriculture, wildlife, and coastal areas. A few degrees of warming might lead to more frequent and severe heat waves, worsened air pollution with adverse effects on human respiratory health, and wider spread of tropical disease such as malaria. The world's hydrologic cycle might be affected by an increase in evaporation and, thus, in precipitation. An increase in evaporation will increase atmospheric water vapor, a significant natural greenhouse gas. The increase in water vapor might further enhance the global warming caused by the greenhouse effect. This is known as a positive feedback. The increase in water vapor could also change the amount of clouds present in the atmosphere, which could reduce temperatures in a negative feedback. Many interrelated factors affect the global climate and are responsible for climate change. Predicting the outcome of the interactions among the many factors is not easy, but it must be addressed. The ARM Program is taking a lead in this effort by collecting vast amounts of data whose analysis will improve our forecasting models for both daily weather and long-term climate. For more information on the ARM Program, please visit our web site at www.arm.gov.« less

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

Temperature-Induced Viral Resistance in Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae)

PubMed Central

Kendrick, B. Jacob; DiTullio, Giacomo R.; Cyronak, Tyler J.; Fulton, James M.; Van Mooy, Benjamin A. S.; Bidle, Kay D.

2014-01-01

Annual Emiliania huxleyi blooms (along with other coccolithophorid species) play important roles in the global carbon and sulfur cycles. E. huxleyi blooms are routinely terminated by large, host-specific dsDNA viruses, (Emiliania huxleyi Viruses; EhVs), making these host-virus interactions a driving force behind their potential impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Given projected increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change, it is imperative to understand the effects of temperature on E. huxleyi’s susceptibility to viral infection and its production of climatically active dimethylated sulfur species (DSS). Here we demonstrate that a 3°C increase in temperature induces EhV-resistant phenotypes in three E. huxleyi strains and that successful virus infection impacts DSS pool sizes. We also examined cellular polar lipids, given their documented roles in regulating host-virus interactions in this system, and propose that alterations to membrane-bound surface receptors are responsible for the observed temperature-induced resistance. Our findings have potential implications for global biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate and for deciphering the particular mechanism(s) by which some E. huxleyi strains exhibit viral resistance. PMID:25405345

Temperature-induced viral resistance in Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae).

PubMed

Kendrick, B Jacob; DiTullio, Giacomo R; Cyronak, Tyler J; Fulton, James M; Van Mooy, Benjamin A S; Bidle, Kay D

2014-01-01

Annual Emiliania huxleyi blooms (along with other coccolithophorid species) play important roles in the global carbon and sulfur cycles. E. huxleyi blooms are routinely terminated by large, host-specific dsDNA viruses, (Emiliania huxleyi Viruses; EhVs), making these host-virus interactions a driving force behind their potential impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Given projected increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change, it is imperative to understand the effects of temperature on E. huxleyi's susceptibility to viral infection and its production of climatically active dimethylated sulfur species (DSS). Here we demonstrate that a 3°C increase in temperature induces EhV-resistant phenotypes in three E. huxleyi strains and that successful virus infection impacts DSS pool sizes. We also examined cellular polar lipids, given their documented roles in regulating host-virus interactions in this system, and propose that alterations to membrane-bound surface receptors are responsible for the observed temperature-induced resistance. Our findings have potential implications for global biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate and for deciphering the particular mechanism(s) by which some E. huxleyi strains exhibit viral resistance.

Global Surface Dust Distribution Changes on Mars (MY24-33)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueux, S.; Hayne, P. O.; Kleinboehl, A.; Edwards, C. S.; Elder, C. M.; Heavens, N. G.; Kass, D. M.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Shirley, J. H.; Smith, M. D.

2016-12-01

Telescopic and spacecraft observations document inter-annual and inter-seasonal changes of the Martian albedo that are interpreted to result from the redistribution of surface dust in response to atmospheric events such as global or regional dust storms, dust devil activity, or seasonal winds. Based on these observations and general circulation modeling, several authors have hypothesized that a necessary condition for global dust storm initiation and growth is the presence of strategically located surface dust reservoirs replenished during inter-storm periods. If this hypothesis is valid, the cyclical accumulation and removal of thermally thick (>50 μm) layers of dust at specific locations ought to produce a distinct temperature signature, since Martian dust exhibits extremely low thermal conductivity and thermal inertia values compared to sand, gravel, rocks, and bedrock. Characterizing dust movement using temperature data presents a major advantage over mapping relying solely on albedo changes: it yields dust layer thicknesses, whose spatial and temporal integration enables the derivation of surface dust fluxes. In this work, we use global (1° per pixel resolution) seasonal (10° Ls resolution, from MY24 to 33) maps of the Martian surface albedo, atmospheric dust opacity, and ground temperature (derived from TES, THEMIS, and MCS observations) to derive apparent variations of the thermal inertia, and thereby characterize surface changes consistent with the deposition or removal of dust. We show that changes in thermal inertia for some regions are consistent with dust accumulation; whereas others seem to lose dust. We compare these maps with published GCM dust lifting predictions, and with observations of past dust storm occurrence, thereby constraining the role of surface dust availability.

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.; Stevens, D. E.

1984-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

AATSR: global-change and surface-temperature measurements from Envisat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Edwards, M. C.; Mutlow, C. T.; Birks, A. R.; Barton, I. J.; Tait, H.

2001-02-01

The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) onboard ESA's Envisat spacecraft is designed to meet the challenging task of monitoring and detecting climate change. It builds on the success of its predecessor instruments on the ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites, and will lead to a 15+ year record of precise and accurate global Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) measurements, thereby making a valuable contribution to the long-term climate record. With its high-accuracy, high-quality imagery and channels in the visible, near-infrared and thermal wavelengths, AATSR data will support many applications in addition to oceanographic and climate research, including a wide range of land-surface, cryosphere and atmospheric studies.

Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

2018-04-01

Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenhui; Li, Qingxiang; Jones, Phil; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Trewin, Blair; Yang, Su; Zhu, Chen; Zhai, Panmao; Wang, Jinfeng; Vincent, Lucie; Dai, Aiguo; Gao, Yun; Ding, Yihui

2018-04-01

A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900-2014, 1979-2014 and 1998-2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900-2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2014 and 1979-2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998-2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes.

Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.

The SeaFlux Turbulent Flux Dataset Version 1.0 Documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent; Bogdanoff, Alec S.

2012-01-01

Under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX) Data and Assessment Panel (GDAP), the SeaFlux Project was created to investigate producing a high-resolution satellite-based dataset of surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans. The most current release of the SeaFlux product is Version 1.0; this represents the initial release of turbulent surface heat fluxes, associated near-surface variables including a diurnally varying sea surface temperature.

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. In this work, we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate ofmore » 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO 4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO 4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO 4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO 4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO 4-induced PET changes.« less

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

DOE PAGES

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; ...

2016-01-27

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. In this work, we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate ofmore » 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO 4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO 4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO 4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO 4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO 4-induced PET changes.« less

On the role of inter-basin surface salinity contrasts in global ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2002-08-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (TOC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. Ocean-wide inter-basin SSS contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global TOC. These contrasts are shown to be at least as important as high-latitudinal freshwater impacts. It is also shown that intra-basin longitudinal distribution of sea surface salinity, as well as intra- and inter-basin longitudinal distribution of sea surface temperature, is not crucial to conveyor functionality if only inter-basin contrasts in sea surface salinity are retained. This is especially important for paleoclimate and future climate simulations.

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

2016-01-01

Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete; Ugarte, Juliette Espinosa

2018-02-01

For hundreds of years, human activity has modified the planet's surface through land-use practices. Policies and decisions on how land is managed and land-use changes due to replacement of forests by agricultural cropping and grazing lands affect greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural management and agroforestry and the resulting changes to the land surface alter the global carbon cycle as well as the Earth's surface albedo, both of which in turn change the Earth's radiation balance. This makes land-use change the second anthropogenic source of climate change after fossil fuel burning. However, the scientific research community has so far not been able to identify the direction and magnitude of the global impact of land-use change. This paper examines the effects of net carbon flux from land-use change on temperature by applying Granger causality and error correction models. The results reveal a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between land-use change and the temperature series as well as an opposing short-term effect such that land-use change tends to lead to global warming; however, a rise in temperature causes a decline in land-use change.

GlobTemperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John; Bruniquel, Jerome; Sardou, Olivier; Trigo, Isabel; Merchant, Chris; Bulgin, Claire; Goettsche, Frank; Olesen, Folke; Prigent, Catherine; Pinnock, Simon

2014-05-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is the mean radiative skin temperature of an area of land resulting from the mean balance of solar heating and land-atmosphere cooling fluxes. It is a basic determinant of the terrestrial thermal behaviour, as it controls the effective radiating temperature of the Earth's surface. The sensitivity of LST to soil moisture and vegetation cover means it is an important component in numerous applications. For instance, LST is a key boundary condition in land surface models, which determine the surface to atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and carbon; thus influencing cloud cover, precipitation and atmospheric chemistry predictions within General Circulation Models. Changes in land-surface cover can affect global climate, and also can be identified by changes in their surface temperatures. With the demand of LST data from Earth Observation currently experiencing considerable growth it is important that the users of this data are appropriately engaged by the LST community. The GlobTemperature project under the Data User Element of ESA's 4th Earth Observation Envelope Programme (2013-2017) aims to promote the wider uptake of global-scale satellite LST by the research and operational user communities. As such, the programme of work is focussed on achieving some innovative milestones for LST data which include: detailed global merged geostationary (GEO) and low earth orbit (LEO) data sets with estimates of both clear-sky and under-cloud LST; a first Climate Data Record for LST for the ATSR series of instruments; and the provision of a globally representative and consistent in-situ validation and intercomparison matchup database. Furthermore, the strength of such a venture lies in the coherence and openness of the interactions with the LST and user communities. For instance: detailed user input into the specifications and subsequent testing of the LST data sets; sustained access to data in a user-friendly manner through common data formats; and the establishment of an LST working group (LST-WG) involving strong guidance of key international experts. GlobTemperature is thus a timely initiative to both enhance the portfolio of LST products from Earth Observation, while concurrently breaking down the barriers to successful application of such data through a programme of dialogue between the data providers and data users. This will require activities at a range of national facilities. For example, GlobTemperature is supported by the National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) in the UK with significant data processing and archiving to be performed on the Climate and Environmental Monitoring from Space (CEMS) facility. The project will have a very beneficial impact on global measurements of LST and will meet a critical need amongst users of LST data. Here we present the key challenges of such a programme of work and the methods to be employed in order to overcome them.

The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.

2016-08-01

The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A; Mix, Alan C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard

2012-04-04

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100-year periods.

A study of the dynamics of droughts in Northern Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Moura, A. D.

1980-01-01

The monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical Altantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations for 25 years (1948-1972) were examined. It is found that the most severe drought events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm sea surface temperature anomalies over north and cold sea surface temperature anomalies over south tropical Atlantic. Simultaneous occurrences of warm sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg N, 45 deg W and cold sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg S, 5 deg W were always associated with negative anomalies of rainfall, and vice versa. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally controlled and thermally driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere.

Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

PubMed

Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

2014-03-01

The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

AGCM hindcasts with SST and other forcings: Responses from global to agricultural scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Kathryn Pierce; Rind, David; Druyan, Leonard; Lonergan, Patrick; Chandler, Mark

2000-08-01

Multiple realizations of the 1969-1998 time period have been simulated by the GISS AGCM to explore its responsiveness to accumulated forcings, particularly over sensitive agricultural regions. A microwave radiative transfer postprocessor has produced the AGCM lower tropospheric, tropospheric, and lower stratospheric brightness temperature (Tb) time series for correlations with microwave sounding unit (MSU) time series. AGCM regional surface air temperature and precipitation were also correlated with GISTEMP temperature data and with rain gage data. Seven realizations by the AGCM were forced solely by observed sea surface temperatures. Subsequent runs hindcast January 1969 through April 1998 with an accumulation of forcings: observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), greenhouse gases, stratospheric volcanic aerosols, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, and tropospheric sulfate and black carbon aerosols. Lower stratospheric Tb correlations between the AGCM and the MSU for 1979-1998 reached as high as 0.93 globally given SST, greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosol, and stratospheric ozone forcings. Midtropospheric Tb correlations reached as high as 0.66 globally and 0.84 across the equatorial, 20°S-20°N band. Oceanic lower tropospheric Tb correlations were less high at 0.59 globally and 0.79 across the equatorial band. Of the sensitive agricultural areas considered, Nordeste in northeastern Brazil was simulated best with midtropospheric Tb correlations up to 0.80. The two other agricultural regions, in Africa and in the northern midlatitudes, suffered from higher levels of non-SST-induced variability. Zimbabwe had a maximum midtropospheric correlation of 0.54, while the U.S. Corn Belt reached only 0.25. Hindcast surface temperatures and precipitation were also correlated with observations, up to 0.46 and 0.63, respectively, for Nordeste. Correlations between AGCM and observed time series improved with addition of certain atmospheric forcings in zonal bands but not in agricultural regions encompassing only six AGCM grid cells.

Warm Eocene climate enhanced petroleum generation from Cretaceous source rocks - a potential climate feedback mechanism?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. F.; Funnell, R. H.

2012-04-01

Surface and deep sea temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene until the Early Eocene climatic Optimum increased by 5 - 10° C. This change was associated with a negative δ13C trend which implies major changes in global carbon cycling and enrichment of surface systems in isotopically light carbon. The degree of change in sedimentary δ13C requires emission of >10,000 gigatonnes of isotopically light carbon into the ocean. We reveal a relationship between global warming and increased petroleum generation in sedimentary basins operating on 100 kyr to Myr time scales that may explain the observed isotope shift. We use TEX86-based surface temperature data1 to predict how change in surface temperature influences the temperature evolution and resultant petroleum generation in four southwest Pacific sedimentary basins. Models predict an up to 50% increase in oil and gas expulsion rates in response to the increase in temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene in the region. Such an increase in petroleum generation would have significantly increased leakage of light hydrocarbons and oil degeneration products into surface systems. We propose that our modelling results are representative of a large number of sedimentary basins world-wide and that early Eocene warming has led to a synchronization of periods of maximum petroleum generation and enhanced generation in otherwise unproductive basins through extension of the volume of source rock within the oil and gas window. Extrapolating our modelling results to hundreds of sedimentary basins worldwide suggests that globally increased leakage could have led to the release of an amount of CH4, CO2 and light petroleum components into surface systems compatible with the observed changes in δ13C. We further suggest that this is a significant feedback effect, enhancing early Eocene climate warming. 1Bijl, P. K., S. Schouten, A. Sluijs, G.-J. Reichart, J. C. Zachos, and H. Brinkhuis (2009), Early Palaeogene temperature evolution of the southwest Pacific Ocean, Nature, 461, 776-779.

Lake Energy Budget and Temperature Profiles Under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofgren, B. M.; Xiao, C.

2017-12-01

Future climates under higher concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to feature higher air and water temperatures, and shifts in surface heat fluxes. We investigate in greater detail the evolution of this in terms of the annual cycle of lake temperature profiles, stratification, and ice formation. Other work has found that, although shallower water promotes more rapid changes in surface water temperature within a season, change in surface water temperature across decades is more prominent in locations with greater water depth. Our simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its lake module, WRF-Lake, show a trend toward longer periods of summer stratification, both through earlier onset in the spring and later decay of stratification in the fall. They also show a general increase in temperature throughout the water column, but most pronounced near the surface during the summer. Likewise, ice duration is much shorter and more restricted to shallow embayments. High latent and sensible heat flux during the fall and winter are less intense but longer lasting under the future scenario. Sources of uncertainty are cumulative—actual future greenhouse gas concentrations, global sensitivity of climate change, cloud feedbacks, the combined formulation of the regional climate model (WRF) and its global driving model, and more.

Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-31

As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

Theoretical analysis of three methods for calculating thermal insulation of clothing from thermal manikin.

PubMed

Huang, Jianhua

2012-07-01

There are three methods for calculating thermal insulation of clothing measured with a thermal manikin, i.e. the global method, the serial method, and the parallel method. Under the condition of homogeneous clothing insulation, these three methods yield the same insulation values. If the local heat flux is uniform over the manikin body, the global and serial methods provide the same insulation value. In most cases, the serial method gives a higher insulation value than the global method. There is a possibility that the insulation value from the serial method is lower than the value from the global method. The serial method always gives higher insulation value than the parallel method. The insulation value from the parallel method is higher or lower than the value from the global method, depending on the relationship between the heat loss distribution and the surface temperatures. Under the circumstance of uniform surface temperature distribution over the manikin body, the global and parallel methods give the same insulation value. If the constant surface temperature mode is used in the manikin test, the parallel method can be used to calculate the thermal insulation of clothing. If the constant heat flux mode is used in the manikin test, the serial method can be used to calculate the thermal insulation of clothing. The global method should be used for calculating thermal insulation of clothing for all manikin control modes, especially for thermal comfort regulation mode. The global method should be chosen by clothing manufacturers for labelling their products. The serial and parallel methods provide more information with respect to the different parts of clothing.

Comparison of Near-Surface Air Temperatures and MODIS Ice-Surface Temperatures at Summit, Greenland (2008-2013)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuman, Christopher A.; Hall, Dorothy K.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Mefford, Thomas K.; Schnaubelt, Michael J.

2014-01-01

We have investigated the stability of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared-derived ice surface temperature (IST) data from Terra for use as a climate quality data record. The availability of climate quality air temperature data (TA) from a NOAA Global Monitoring Division observatory at Greenlands Summit station has enabled this high temporal resolution study of MODIS ISTs. During a 5 year period (July 2008 to August 2013), more than 2500 IST values were compared with 3-minute average TA values derived from the 1-minute data from NOAAs primary 2 m air temperature sensor. These data enabled an expected small offset between air and surface temperatures at this the ice sheet location to be investigated over multiple annual cycles.

Analysis of the surface heat balance over the world ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Esbenson, S. K.

1981-01-01

The net surface heat fluxes over the global ocean for all calendar months were evaluated. To obtain a formula in the form Qs = Q2(T*A - Ts), where Qs is the net surface heat flux, Ts is the sea surface temperature, T*A is the apparent atmospheric equilibrium temperature, and Q2 is the proportionality constant. Here T*A and Q2, derived from the original heat flux formulas, are functions of the surface meteorological parameters (e.g., surface wind speed, air temperature, dew point, etc.) and the surface radiation parameters. This formulation of the net surface heat flux together with climatological atmospheric parameters provides a realistic and computationally efficient upper boundary condition for oceanic climate modeling.

A global monthly sea surface temperature climatology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shea, D.J.; Trenberth, K.E.; Reynolds, R.W.

1992-09-01

The paper presents a new global 2 deg x 2 deg monthly sea surface temperature (SST) climatology, referred here to as the Shea-Trenberth-Reynolds (STR) climatology, which was derived by modifying a 1950-1979-based SST climatology from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC), by using data from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set to improve the SST estimates in the regions of the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream. A comparison of the STR climatology with the Alexander and Mobley SST climatology showed that the STR climatology is warmer in the Northern Hemisphere, and colder poleward of 45 deg S. 22 refs.

Understanding and Reconciling Differences in Surface and Satellite-Based Lower Troposphere Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausfather, Z.; Thorne, P.; Mears, C. A.

2017-12-01

One of the main remaining uncertainties in global temperatures over the past few decades is the disagreement between surface and microwave sounding unit (MSU) satellite-based observations of the lower troposphere. Reconciling these will prove an important step in improving our understanding of modern climate change, and help resolve an issue that has been frequently brought to the attention of policymakers and highlighted as a reason to distrust climate observations. To assess differences between surface and satellite records, we examine data from radiosondes, from atmospheric reanalysis, from numerous different satellites, from surface observations over the land and ocean, and from global climate models. Controlling for spatial coverage, we determine where these datasets agree and disagree, isolate the differences, and identify for common factors to explain the divergences. We find large systemic differences between surface and lower troposphere warming in MSU/AMSU records compared to radiosondes, reanalysis products, and climate models that suggest possible residual inhomogeneities in satellite records. We further show that no reasonable subset of surface temperature records exhibits as little warming over the last two decades as satellite observations, suggesting that inhomogeneities in the surface record are very likely not responsible for the divergence.

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaw, Michael; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Cetola, Jeffrey

2011-01-01

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours

Global Surface Temperature Anomalies and Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrafesa, L. J.

2017-12-01

We study Non-Stationary, Non-Linear time series of global surface temperatures from 1850 to 2016, and via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the buried, internal modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 167 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, both in the ocean and the atmosphere over land, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, annual, inter-annual, multi-year, decadal, multi-decadal, centennial and overall warming trends in the ocean, atmosphere and the combination therein. The oceanic rate of warming is less than two thirds of that of the atmosphere. While our findings on overall trends of fossil fuel burning and planetary temperatures are only visually correlative, by employing a mathematical methodology well known in ergonomics, this study causally links the upward rise in planetary surface temperature from the latter part of the 19th Century and into the 21st Century, to the contemporaneous upward rise in fossil fuel burning and suggests that if present fossil fuel burning is not curtailed there will be continued warming of the planet in the future.

Estimating Morning Change in Land Surface Temperature from MODIS Day/Night Observations: Applications for Surface Energy Balance Modeling.

PubMed

Hain, Christopher R; Anderson, Martha C

2017-10-16

Observations of land surface temperature (LST) are crucial for the monitoring of surface energy fluxes from satellite. Methods that require high temporal resolution LST observations (e.g., from geostationary orbit) can be difficult to apply globally because several geostationary sensors are required to attain near-global coverage (60°N to 60°S). While these LST observations are available from polar-orbiting sensors, providing global coverage at higher spatial resolutions, the temporal sampling (twice daily observations) can pose significant limitations. For example, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model, used for monitoring evapotranspiration and drought, requires an observation of the morning change in LST - a quantity not directly observable from polar-orbiting sensors. Therefore, we have developed and evaluated a data-mining approach to estimate the mid-morning rise in LST from a single sensor (2 observations per day) of LST from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on the Aqua platform. In general, the data-mining approach produced estimates with low relative error (5 to 10%) and statistically significant correlations when compared against geostationary observations. This approach will facilitate global, near real-time applications of ALEXI at higher spatial and temporal coverage from a single sensor than currently achievable with current geostationary datasets.

Geometric stabilization of the electrostatic ion-temperature-gradient driven instability. I. Nearly axisymmetric systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zocco, A.; Plunk, G. G.; Xanthopoulos, P.

The effects of a non-axisymmetric (3D) equilibrium magnetic field on the linear ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) driven mode are investigated. We consider the strongly driven, toroidal branch of the instability in a global (on the magnetic surface) setting. Previous studies have focused on particular features of non-axisymmetric systems, such as strong local shear or magnetic ripple, that introduce inhomogeneity in the coordinate along the magnetic field. In contrast, here we include non-axisymmetry explicitly via the dependence of the magnetic drift on the field line label α, i.e., across the magnetic field, but within the magnetic flux surface. We consider the limit wheremore » this variation occurs on a scale much larger than that of the ITG mode, and also the case where these scales are similar. Close to axisymmetry, we find that an averaging effect of the magnetic drift on the flux surface causes global (on the surface) stabilization, as compared to the most unstable local mode. In the absence of scale separation, we find destabilization is also possible, but only if a particular resonance occurs between the magnetic drift and the mode, and finite Larmor radius effects are neglected. We discuss the relative importance of surface global effects and known radially global effects.« less

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

A comprehensive data set of lake surface water temperature over the Tibetan Plateau derived from MODIS LST products 2001–2015

PubMed Central

Wan, Wei; Li, Huan; Xie, Hongjie; Hong, Yang; Long, Di; Zhao, Limin; Han, Zhongying; Cui, Yaokui; Liu, Baojian; Wang, Cunguang; Yang, Wenting

2017-01-01

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to long-term changes in thermal structure of lakes and regional air temperature. In the context of global climate change, recent studies showed a significant warming trend of LSWT based on investigating 291 lakes (71% are large lakes, ≥50 km2 each) globally. However, further efforts are needed to examine variation in LSWT at finer regional spatial and temporal scales. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as ‘the Roof of the World’ and ‘Asia’s water towers’, exerts large influences on and is sensitive to regional and even global climates. Aiming to examine detailed changing patterns and potential driven mechanisms for temperature variations of lakes across the TP region, this paper presents the first comprehensive data set of 15-year (2001–2015) nighttime and daytime LSWT for 374 lakes (≥10 km2 each), using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Surface Temperature (LST) products as well as four lake boundary shapefiles (i.e., 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2014) derived from Landsat/CBERS/GaoFen-1 satellite images. The data set itself reveals significant information on LSWT and its changes over the TP and is an indispensable variable for numerous applications related to climate change, water budget analysis (particularly lake evaporation), water storage changes, glacier melting and permafrost degradation, etc. PMID:28742066

A comprehensive data set of lake surface water temperature over the Tibetan Plateau derived from MODIS LST products 2001-2015.

PubMed

Wan, Wei; Li, Huan; Xie, Hongjie; Hong, Yang; Long, Di; Zhao, Limin; Han, Zhongying; Cui, Yaokui; Liu, Baojian; Wang, Cunguang; Yang, Wenting

2017-07-25

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to long-term changes in thermal structure of lakes and regional air temperature. In the context of global climate change, recent studies showed a significant warming trend of LSWT based on investigating 291 lakes (71% are large lakes, ≥50 km 2 each) globally. However, further efforts are needed to examine variation in LSWT at finer regional spatial and temporal scales. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as 'the Roof of the World' and 'Asia's water towers', exerts large influences on and is sensitive to regional and even global climates. Aiming to examine detailed changing patterns and potential driven mechanisms for temperature variations of lakes across the TP region, this paper presents the first comprehensive data set of 15-year (2001-2015) nighttime and daytime LSWT for 374 lakes (≥10 km 2 each), using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Surface Temperature (LST) products as well as four lake boundary shapefiles (i.e., 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2014) derived from Landsat/CBERS/GaoFen-1 satellite images. The data set itself reveals significant information on LSWT and its changes over the TP and is an indispensable variable for numerous applications related to climate change, water budget analysis (particularly lake evaporation), water storage changes, glacier melting and permafrost degradation, etc.

Solar variability: Implications for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lean, Judith; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

NCEP SST Analysis

Science.gov Websites

Branches Global Climate & Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Contact EMC , state and local government Web resources and services. Real-time, global, sea surface temperature (RTG_SST_HR) analysis For a regional map, click the desired area in the global SST analysis and anomaly maps

Globally-Gridded Interpolated Night-Time Marine Air Temperatures 1900-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junod, R.; Christy, J. R.

2016-12-01

Over the past century, climate records have pointed to an increase in global near-surface average temperature. Near-surface air temperature over the oceans is a relatively unused parameter in understanding the current state of climate, but is useful as an independent temperature metric over the oceans and serves as a geographical and physical complement to near-surface air temperature over land. Though versions of this dataset exist (i.e. HadMAT1 and HadNMAT2), it has been strongly recommended that various groups generate climate records independently. This University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) study began with the construction of monthly night-time marine air temperature (UAHNMAT) values from the early-twentieth century through to the present era. Data from the International Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) were used to compile a time series of gridded UAHNMAT, (20S-70N). This time series was homogenized to correct for the many biases such as increasing ship height, solar deck heating, etc. The time series of UAHNMAT, once adjusted to a standard reference height, is gridded to 1.25° pentad grid boxes and interpolated using the kriging interpolation technique. This study will present results which quantify the variability and trends and compare to current trends of other related datasets that include HadNMAT2 and sea-surface temperatures (HadISST & ERSSTv4).

Inferring Land Surface Model Parameters for the Assimilation of Satellite-Based L-Band Brightness Temperature Observations into a Soil Moisture Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.

2012-01-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission provides global measurements of L-band brightness temperatures at horizontal and vertical polarization and a variety of incidence angles that are sensitive to moisture and temperature conditions in the top few centimeters of the soil. These L-band observations can therefore be assimilated into a land surface model to obtain surface and root zone soil moisture estimates. As part of the observation operator, such an assimilation system requires a radiative transfer model (RTM) that converts geophysical fields (including soil moisture and soil temperature) into modeled L-band brightness temperatures. At the global scale, the RTM parameters and the climatological soil moisture conditions are still poorly known. Using look-up tables from the literature to estimate the RTM parameters usually results in modeled L-band brightness temperatures that are strongly biased against the SMOS observations, with biases varying regionally and seasonally. Such biases must be addressed within the land data assimilation system. In this presentation, the estimation of the RTM parameters is discussed for the NASA GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, which is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Catchment land surface model. In the GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, soil moisture and brightness temperature biases are addressed in three stages. First, the global soil properties and soil hydraulic parameters that are used in the Catchment model were revised to minimize the bias in the modeled soil moisture, as verified against available in situ soil moisture measurements. Second, key parameters of the "tau-omega" RTM were calibrated prior to data assimilation using an objective function that minimizes the climatological differences between the modeled L-band brightness temperatures and the corresponding SMOS observations. Calibrated parameters include soil roughness parameters, vegetation structure parameters, and the single scattering albedo. After this climatological calibration, the modeling system can provide L-band brightness temperatures with a global mean absolute bias of less than 10K against SMOS observations, across multiple incidence angles and for horizontal and vertical polarization. Third, seasonal and regional variations in the residual biases are addressed by estimating the vegetation optical depth through state augmentation during the assimilation of the L-band brightness temperatures. This strategy, tested here with SMOS data, is part of the baseline approach for the Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture data product from the planned Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission.

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

Annual minimum temperature variations in early 21st century in Punjab, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahangir, Misbah; Maria Ali, Syeda; Khalid, Bushra

2016-01-01

Climate change is a key emerging threat to the global environment. It imposes long lasting impacts both at regional and national level. In the recent era, global warming and extreme temperatures have drawn great interest to the scientific community. As in a past century considerable increase in global surface temperatures have been observed and predictions revealed that it will continue in the future. In this regard, current study mainly focused on analysis of regional climatic change (annual minimum temperature trends and its correlation with land surface temperatures in the early 21st century in Punjab) for a period of 1979-2013. The projected model data European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) has been used for eight Tehsils of Punjab i.e., annual minimum temperatures and annual seasonal temperatures. Trend analysis of annual minimum and annual seasonal temperature in (Khushab, Noorpur, Sargodha, Bhalwal, Sahiwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali and Chinoit) tehsils of Punjab was carried out by Regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data was used in comparison with Model data for the month of May from the years 2000, 2009 and 2010. Results showed that no significant trends were observed in annual minimum temperature. A significant change was observed in Noorpur, Bhalwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali, Sahiwal, Chinoit and Sargodha tehsils during spring season, which indicated that this particular season was a transient period of time.

A neural network model for predicting weighted mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Maohua

2018-02-01

Water vapor is an important element of the Earth's atmosphere, and most of it concentrates at the bottom of the troposphere. Knowledge of the water vapor measured by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is an important direction of GNSS research. In particular, when the zenith wet delay is converted to precipitable water vapor, the weighted mean temperature T_m is a variable parameter to be determined in this conversion. The purpose of the study is getting a more accurate T_m model for global users by a combination of two different characteristics of T_m (i.e., the T_m seasonal variations and the relationships between T_m and surface meteorological elements). The modeling process was carried out by using the neural network technology. A multilayer feedforward neural network model (the NN) was established. The NN model is used with measurements of only surface temperature T_S . The NN was validated and compared with four other published global T_m models. The results show that the NN performed better than any of the four compared models on the global scale.

Global Temperature Measurement of Supercooled Water under Icing Conditions using Two-Color Luminescent Images and Multi-Band Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Mio; Morita, Katsuaki; Kimura, Shigeo; Sakaue, Hirotaka

2012-11-01

Icing occurs by a collision of a supercooled-water droplet on a surface. It can be seen in any cold area. A great attention is paid in an aircraft icing. To understand the icing process on an aircraft, it is necessary to give the temperature information of the supercooled water. A conventional technique, such as a thermocouple, is not valid, because it becomes a collision surface that accumulates ice. We introduce a dual-luminescent imaging to capture a global temperature distribution of supercooled water under the icing conditions. It consists of two-color luminescent probes and a multi-band filter. One of the probes is sensitive to the temperature and the other is independent of the temperature. The latter is used to cancel the temperature-independent luminescence of a temperature-dependent image caused by an uneven illumination and a camera location. The multi-band filter only selects the luminescent peaks of the probes to enhance the temperature sensitivity of the imaging system. By applying the system, the time-resolved temperature information of a supercooled-water droplet is captured.

Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization when Considering Global Warming for a Coastal Tropical Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonalez, Jorge E.; Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Smith, T.

2010-01-01

The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface temperatures. The TRN (J/m^2/degC) is a surface property defined as the ratio of the surface net radiation to the rate of change in surface temperature, expresses how those fluxes are reacting to radiant energy inputs. Natural vegetated surfaces have a greater TRN than urban and barren surfaces because the net radiation processed by them is mostly used for latent heat and thermal storage heat rather than sensible heat (heating the air). Significant changes in TRN were observed in the metropolitan area of San Juan for the two analyzed periods reflecting a reduction of this variable in the present from the past consistent with increasing in thermal mass, or intense urbanization.

Design of a global soil moisture initialization procedure for the simple biosphere model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liston, G. E.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1993-01-01

Global soil moisture and land-surface evapotranspiration fields are computed using an analysis scheme based on the Simple Biosphere (SiB) soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction model. The scheme is driven with observed precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration, where the potential evapotranspiration is computed following the surface air temperature-potential evapotranspiration regression of Thomthwaite (1948). The observed surface air temperature is corrected to reflect potential (zero soil moisture stress) conditions by letting the ratio of actual transpiration to potential transpiration be a function of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff data are generated on a daily basis for a 10-year period, January 1979 through December 1988, using observed precipitation gridded at a 4 deg by 5 deg resolution.

Intensification of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. T.

2011-12-01

Given current international efforts to limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, there is an interest in determining what unavoidable impacts to physical, biological, and socio-economic systems might occur even if this target were met. In our research we show that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with unprecedented regularity, even if the global-mean temperature remains below the 2°C target currently envisioned. These results have significant implications for agriculture and crop yield; disease and human health; and ecosystems and biodiversity. To obtain these results, we first develop a novel method for combining numerical-model estimates of near-term increases in grid-point temperatures with stochastically generated anomalies derived from high-resolution observations during the last half of the 20th century. This method has practical advantages because it generates results at fine spatial resolution without relying on computationally-intensive regional-model experiments; it explicitly incorporates information derived from the observations regarding interannual-to-decadal variations in seasonal-mean temperatures; and it includes the generation of thousands of realizations of the possible impacts of a global mean temperature increase on local occurrences of hot extremes. Using this method we find that even given the "committed" future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes will be exceeded in at least half of all years-equivalently, the historical extreme values will become the norm-for much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon. Should the global-mean temperature increase reach 2°C (relative to the pre-industrial era), it is more likely than not that these same regions, along with large portions of western North America, will experience historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes every single year. Further, the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm for approximately 70-80% of the Earth's land surface.

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2016-12-01

Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Quantifying the Terrestrial Surface Energy Fluxes Using Remotely-Sensed Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siemann, Amanda Lynn

The dynamics of the energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere drive local and regional climate and are paramount to understand the past, present, and future changes in climate. Although global reanalysis datasets, land surface models (LSMs), and climate models estimate these fluxes by simulating the physical processes involved, they merely simulate our current understanding of these processes. Global estimates of the terrestrial, surface energy fluxes based on observations allow us to capture the dynamics of the full climate system. Remotely-sensed satellite data is the source of observations of the land surface which provide the widest spatial coverage. Although net radiation and latent heat flux global, terrestrial, surface estimates based on remotely-sensed satellite data have progressed, comparable sensible heat data products and ground heat flux products have not progressed at this scale. Our primary objective is quantifying and understanding the terrestrial energy fluxes at the Earth's surface using remotely-sensed satellite data with consistent development among all energy budget components [through the land surface temperature (LST) and input meteorology], including validation of these products against in-situ data, uncertainty assessments, and long-term trend analysis. The turbulent fluxes are constrained by the available energy using the Bowen ratio of the un-constrained products to ensure energy budget closure. All final products are within uncertainty ranges of literature values, globally. When validated against the in-situ estimates, the sensible heat flux estimates using the CFSR air temperature and constrained with the products using the MODIS albedo produce estimates closest to the FLUXNET in-situ observations. Poor performance over South America is consistent with the largest uncertainties in the energy budget. From 1984-2007, the longwave upward flux increase due to the LST increase drives the net radiation decrease, and the decrease in the available energy balances the decrease in the sensible heat flux. These datasets are useful for benchmarking climate models and LSM output at the global annual scale and the regional scale subject to the regional uncertainties and performance. Future work should improve the input data, particularly the temperature gradient and Zilitinkevich empirical constant, to reduce uncertainties.

Global Distribution and Variability of Surface Skin and Surface Air Temperatures as Depicted in the AIRS Version-6 Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae N.; Iredell, Lena

2014-01-01

In this presentation, we will briefly describe the significant improvements made in the AIRS Version-6 retrieval algorithm, especially as to how they affect retrieved surface skin and surface air temperatures. The global distribution of seasonal 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM local time 12 year climatologies of Ts,a will be presented for the first time. We will also present the spatial distribution of short term 12 year anomaly trends of Ts,a at 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM, as well as the spatial distribution of temporal correlations of Ts,a with the El Nino Index. It will be shown that there are significant differences between the behavior of 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM Ts,a anomalies in some arid land areas.

Cloud Masking and Surface Temperature Distribution in the Polar Regions Using AVHRR and other Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Joey C.

1995-01-01

Surface temperature is one of the key variables associated with weather and climate. Accurate measurements of surface air temperatures are routinely made in meteorological stations around the world. Also, satellite data have been used to produce synoptic global temperature distributions. However, not much attention has been paid on temperature distributions in the polar regions. In the polar regions, the number of stations is very sparse. Because of adverse weather conditions and general inaccessibility, surface field measurements are also limited. Furthermore, accurate retrievals from satellite data in the region have been difficult to make because of persistent cloudiness and ambiguities in the discrimination of clouds from snow or ice. Surface temperature observations are required in the polar regions for air-sea-ice interaction studies, especially in the calculation of heat, salinity, and humidity fluxes. They are also useful in identifying areas of melt or meltponding within the sea ice pack and the ice sheets and in the calculation of emissivities of these surfaces. Moreover, the polar regions are unique in that they are the sites of temperature extremes, the location of which is difficult to identify without a global monitoring system. Furthermore, the regions may provide an early signal to a potential climate change because such signal is expected to be amplified in the region due to feedback effects. In cloud free areas, the thermal channels from infrared systems provide surface temperatures at relatively good accuracies. Previous capabilities include the use of the Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR) onboard the Nimbus-7 satellite which was launched in 1978. Current capabilities include the use of the Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aboard NOAA satellites. Together, these two systems cover a span of 16 years of thermal infrared data. Techniques for retrieving surface temperatures with these sensors in the polar regions have been developed. Errors have been estimated to range from 1K to 5K mainly due to cloud masking problems. With many additional channels available, it is expected that the EOS-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will provide an improved characterization of clouds and a good discrimination of clouds from snow or ice surfaces.

A global analysis of the urban heat island effect based on multisensor satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, J.; Frolking, S. E.; Milliman, T. E.; Schneider, A.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

Human population is rapidly urbanizing. In much of the world, cities are prone to hotter weather than surrounding rural areas - so-called `urban heat islands' - and this effect can have mortal consequences during heat waves. During the daytime, when the surface energy balance is driven by incoming solar radiation, the magnitude of urban warming is strongly influenced by surface albedo and the capacity to evaporate water (i.e., there is a strong relationship between vegetated land fraction and the ratio of sensible to latent heat loss or Bowen ratio). At nighttime, urban cooling is often inhibited by the thermal inertia of the built environment and anthropogenic heat exhaust from building and transportation energy use. We evaluated a suite of global remote sensing data sets representing a range of urban characteristics against MODIS-derived land-surface temperature differences between urban and surrounding rural areas. We included two new urban datasets in this analysis - MODIS-derived change in global urban extent and global urban microwave backscatter - along with several MODIS standard products and DMSP/OLS nighttime lights time series data. The global analysis spanned a range of urban characteristics that likely influence the magnitude of daytime and/or nighttime urban heat islands - urban size, population density, building density, state of development, impervious fraction, eco-climatic setting. Specifically, we developed new satellite datasets and synthesizing these with existing satellite data into a global database of urban land surface parameters, used two MODIS land surface temperature products to generate time series of daytime and nighttime urban heat island effects for 30 large cities across the globe, and empirically analyzed these data to determine specifically which remote sensing-based characterizations of global urban areas have explanatory power with regard to both daytime and nighttime urban heat islands.

Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Robock, Alan

2014-04-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea ice and land components. A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15 kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon (BC). This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric BC compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies. Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30%-80% over midlatitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today.

Land surface temperature over global deserts: Means, variability, and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-12-01

Land surface air temperature (LSAT) has been a widely used metric to study climate change. Weather observations of LSAT are the fundamental data for climate change studies and provide key evidence of global warming. However, there are very few meteorological observations over deserts due to their uninhabitable environment. This study fills this gap and provides independent evidence using satellite-derived land surface temperatures (LSTs), benefiting from their global coverage. The frequency of clear sky from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data over global deserts was found to be greater than 94% for the 2002-2015 period. Our results show that MODIS LST has a bias of 1.36°C compared to ground-based observations collected at 31 U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations, with a standard deviation of 1.83°C. After bias correction, MODIS LST was used to evaluate existing reanalyses, including ERA-Interim, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), MERRA-land, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-R1, and NCEP-R2. The reanalyses accurately reproduce the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the LSTs, but their multiyear means and trends of LSTs exhibit large uncertainties. The multiyear averaged LST over global deserts is 23.5°C from MODIS and varies from 20.8°C to 24.5°C in different reanalyses. The MODIS LST over global deserts increased by 0.25°C/decade from 2002 to 2015, whereas the reanalyses estimated a trend varying from -0.14 to 0.10°C/decade. The underestimation of the LST trend by the reanalyses occurs for approximately 70% of the global deserts, likely due to the imperfect performance of the reanalyses in reproducing natural climate variability.

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2006-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

Spatiotemporal variations in the difference between satellite-observed daily maximum land surface temperature and station-based daily maximum near-surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Xu; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Yao, Yitong; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Kaicun; Piao, Shilong

2017-02-01

There is an increasing demand to integrate land surface temperature (LST) into climate research due to its global coverage, which requires a comprehensive knowledge of its distinctive characteristics compared to near-surface air temperature (Tair). Using satellite observations and in situ station-based data sets, we conducted a global-scale assessment of the spatial and seasonal variations in the difference between daily maximum LST and daily maximum Tair (δT, LST - Tair) during 2003-2014. Spatially, LST is generally higher than Tair over arid and sparsely vegetated regions in the middle-low latitudes, but LST is lower than Tair in tropical rainforests due to strong evaporative cooling, and in the high-latitude regions due to snow-induced radiative cooling. Seasonally, δT is negative in tropical regions throughout the year, while it displays a pronounced seasonality in both the midlatitudes and boreal regions. The seasonality in the midlatitudes is a result of the asynchronous responses of LST and Tair to the seasonal cycle of radiation and vegetation abundance, whereas in the boreal regions, seasonality is mainly caused by the change in snow cover. Our study identified substantial spatial heterogeneity and seasonality in δT, as well as its determinant environmental drivers, and thus provides a useful reference for monitoring near-surface air temperature changes using remote sensing, particularly in remote regions.

A 30-day forecast experiment with the GISS model and updated sea surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R.; Kuo, E.

1975-01-01

The GISS model was used to compute two parallel global 30-day forecasts for the month January 1974. In one forecast, climatological January sea surface temperatures were used, while in the other observed sea temperatures were inserted and updated daily. A comparison of the two forecasts indicated no clear-cut beneficial effect of daily updating of sea surface temperatures. Despite the rapid decay of daily predictability, the model produced a 30-day mean forecast for January 1974 that was generally superior to persistence and climatology when evaluated over either the globe or the Northern Hemisphere, but not over smaller regions.

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols: LIN: SIMULATED RESPONSES ARIDITY

DOE PAGES

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; ...

2016-01-27

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9%/°C of globalmore » mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO4-induced PET changes.« less

Spatiotemporal Variations in the Difference between Satellite-observed Land Surface Temperature and Station-based Near-surface Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, X.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing demand to integrate land surface temperature (LST) into climate research due to its global coverage, which requires a comprehensive knowledge of its distinctive characteristics compared to near-surface air temperature ( ). Using satellite observations and in-situ station-based datasets, we conducted a global-scale assessment of the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variations in the difference between daytime maximum LST and daytime maximum ( , LST - ) during 2003-2014. Spatially, LST is generally higher than over arid and sparsely vegetated regions in the mid-low latitudes, but LST is lower than in the tropical rainforests due to strong evaporative cooling, and in the high-latitude regions due to snow-induced radiative cooling. Seasonally, is negative in tropical regions throughout the year, while it displays a pronounced seasonality in both the mid-latitudes and boreal regions. The seasonality in the mid-latitudes is a result of the asynchronous responses of LST and to the seasonal cycle of radiation and vegetation abundance, whereas in the boreal regions, seasonality is mainly caused by the change in snow cover. At an interannual scale, only a small proportion of the land surface displays a statistically significant trend (P <0.05) due to the short time span of current measurements. Our study identified substantial spatial heterogeneity and seasonality in , as well as its determinant environmental drivers, and thus provides a useful reference for monitoring near-surface temperature changes using remote sensing, particularly in remote regions.

Global Mean Temperature Timeseries Projections from GCMs: The Implications of Rebasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Global climate models are assessed by comparison with observations through several benchmarks. One highlighted by the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. These aspects of annual mean global mean temperature (GMT) change are presented as one feature demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies. The models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K so this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We show that rebasing in combination with general agreement, implies a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. It also implies a degree of linearity in the GMT slow timescale response. For each individual model these implications only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a wider range of GMTs. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Customer-oriented Data Formats and Services for Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products at the NASA GES DISC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, BIll; Vollmer, Bruce

2008-01-01

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products simulated by four land surface Models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GESDISC).

A Global Map of Thermal Inertia from Mars Global Surveyor Mapping-Mission Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, M. T.; Kretke, K. A.; Smith, M. D.; Pelkey, S. M.

2002-01-01

TES (thermal emission spectrometry) has obtained high spatial resolution surface temperature observations from which thermal inertia has been derived. Seasonal coverage of these data now provides a nearly global view of Mars, including the polar regions, at high resolution. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

Global Surface Temperatures of the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. P.; Paige, D. A.; Greenhagen, B. T.; Sefton-Nash, E.

2015-12-01

The Diviner instrument aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is providing the most comprehensive view of how regoliths on airless body store and exchange thermal energy with the space environment. Approximately a quarter trillion calibrated radiance measurements of the Moon, acquired over 5.5 years by Diviner, have been compiled into a 0.5° resolution global dataset with a 0.25 hour local time resolution. Maps generated with this dataset provide a global perspective of the surface energy balance of the Moon and reveal the complex and extreme nature of the lunar surface thermal environment. Daytime maximum temperatures are sensitive to the radiative properties of the surface and are ~387-397 K at the equator, dropping to ~95 K before sunrise. Asymmetry between the morning and afternoon temperatures is observed due to the thermal inertia of the regolith with the dusk terminator ~30 K warmer than the dawn terminator at the equator. An increase in albedo with incidence angle is required to explain the observed temperatures with latitude. At incidence angles >40° topography and surface roughness result in increasing anisothermality between spectral passbands and scatter in temperatures. Minimum temperatures reflect variations in thermophysical properties (Figure). Impact craters are found to modify regolith properties over large distances. The thermal signature of Tycho is asymmetric consistent with an oblique impact coming from the west. Some prominent crater rays are visible in the thermal data and require material with a higher thermal inertial than nominal regolith. The influence of the formation of the Orientale basin on the regolith properties is observable over a substantial portion of the western hemisphere despite its age (~3.8 Gyr), and may have contributed to mixing of highland and mare material on the southwest margin of Oceanus Procellarum where the gradient in radiative properties at the mare-highland contact are observed to be broad (~200 km).

Initialization of Cloud and Radiation in the Florida State University Global Spectral Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

come home." My son will soon learn to throw the football farther and harder. My daughter will have one more guest at her tea parties. I love you all very... Peruvian Current keep the sea surface temperatures cool in this area. The Andes Mountain chain also has cool surface temperatures due to its high

A new method for probabilistic assessment of regional climate impacts in dependence of cumulative GHG emission budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, Nadine; Hare, Bill

2010-05-01

Given the expected and already observed impacts of climate change there is growing agreement that global mean temperature rise should be limited to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. The translation of such a temperature target into guidelines for global emission reduction over the coming decades has become one of the most important and urgent tasks. In fact, there are four recent studies (Meinshausen et al. 2009, Allen et al. 2009, Matthews et al. 2009 and Zickfeld et al. 2009) which take a very comprehensive approach to quantifying the current uncertainties related to the question of what are the "allowed amounts" of global emissions given specific limits of global warming. Here, we present an extension of this budget approach allowing to focus on specific regional impacts. The method is based on probabilistic projections of regional temperature and precipitation changes providing the input for available impact functions. Using the example of Greenland's surface mass balance (Gregory et al., 2006) we will demonstrate how the probability of specific impacts can be described in dependence of global GHG emission budgets taking into account the uncertainty of global mean temperature projections as well as uncertainties of regional climate patterns varying from AOGCM to AOGCM. The method utilizes the AOGCM based linear relation between global mean temperature changes and regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. It allows to handle the variations of regional climate projections from AR4 AOGCM runs independent of the uncertainties of global mean temperature change that are estimated by a simple climate model (Meinshausen et al., 2009). While the linearity of this link function is already established for temperature and to a lesser degree (depending on the region) also for precipitation (Santer et al. 1990; Mitchell et al. 1999; Giorgi et al., 2008; Solomon et al., 2009), we especially focus on the quantification of the uncertainty (in particularly the inter-AOGCM variations) of the associated scaling coefficients. Our approach is based on a linear mixed effects model (e.g. Bates and Pinheiro, 2001). In comparison to other scaling approaches we do not fit separate models for the temperature and precipitation data but we apply a two-dimensional model, i.e., we explicitly account for the fact that models (scenarios or runs) showing an especially high temperature increase may also show high precipitation increases or vice versa. Coupling the two-dimensional distribution of the scaling coefficients with the uncertainty distributions of global mean temperature change given different GHG emission trajectories finally provides time series of two dimensional uncertainty distributions of regional changes in temperature and precipitation, where both components might be correlated. These samples provide the input for regional specific impact functions. In case of Greenland we use a function by Gregory et al., 2006 that allows us to calculate changes in sea level rise due to changes in Greenland's surface mass balance in dependence of regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. The precipitation signal turns out to be relatively strong for Greenland with AOGCMs consistently showing increasing precipitation with increasing global mean temperature. In addition, temperature and precipitation increases turned out to be highly correlated for Greenland: Models showing an especially high temperature increase also show high precipitation increases reflected by a correlation coefficient of 0.88 for the inter-model variations of both components of the scaling coefficients. Taking these correlations into account is especially important because the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet critically depends on the interaction of the temperature and precipitation component of climate change: Increasing precipitation may at least partly balance the loss due to increasing temperatures.

Forests tend to cool the land surface in the temperate zone: An analysis of the mechanisms controlling radiometric surface temperature change in managed temperate ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoy, P. C.; Katul, G. G.; Juang, J.; Siqueira, M. B.; Novick, K. A.; Essery, R.; Dore, S.; Kolb, T. E.; Montes-Helu, M. C.; Scott, R. L.

2010-12-01

Vegetation is an important control on the surface energy balance and thereby surface temperature. Boreal forests and arctic shrubs are thought to warm the land surface by absorbing more radiation than the vegetation they replace. The surface temperatures of tropical forests tend to be cooler than deforested landscapes due to enhanced evapotranspiration. The effects of reforestation on surface temperature change in the temperate zone is less-certain, but recent modeling efforts suggest forests have a global warming effect. We quantified the mechanisms driving radiometric surface changes following landcover changes using paired ecosystem case studies from the Ameriflux database with energy balance models of varying complexity. Results confirm previous findings that deciduous and coniferous forests in the southeastern U.S. are ca. 1 °C cooler than an adjacent field on an annual basis because aerodynamic/ecophysiological cooling of 2-3 °C outweighs an albedo-related warming of <1 °C. A 50-70% reduction in the aerodynamic resistance to sensible and latent heat exchange in the forests dominated the cooling effect. A grassland ecosystem that succeeded a stand-replacing ponderosa pine fire was ca. 1 °C warmer than unburned stands because a 1.5 °C aerodynamic warming offset a slight surface cooling due to greater albedo and soil heat flux. An ecosystem dominated by mesquite shrub encroachment was nearly 2 °C warmer than a native grassland ecosystem as aerodynamic and albedo-related warming outweighed a small cooling effect due to changes in soil heat flux. The forested ecosystems in these case studies are documented to have higher carbon uptake than the non-forested systems. Results suggest that temperate forests tend to cool the land surface and suggest that previous model-based findings that forests warm the Earth’s surface globally should be reconsidered.Changes to radiometric surface temperature (K) following changes in vegetation using paired ecosystem case studies C4 grassland and shrub ecosystem surface temperatures were adjusted for differences in air temperature across sites.

A novel resource sharing algorithm based on distributed construction for radiant enclosure problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finzell, Peter; Bryden, Kenneth M.

This study demonstrates a novel approach to solving inverse radiant enclosure problems based on distributed construction. Specifically, the problem of determining the temperature distribution needed on the heater surfaces to achieve a desired design surface temperature profile is recast as a distributed construction problem in which a shared resource, temperature, is distributed by computational agents moving blocks. The sharing of blocks between agents enables them to achieve their desired local state, which in turn achieves the desired global state. Each agent uses the current state of their local environment and a simple set of rules to determine when to exchangemore » blocks, each block representing a discrete unit of temperature change. This algorithm is demonstrated using the established two-dimensional inverse radiation enclosure problem. The temperature profile on the heater surfaces is adjusted to achieve a desired temperature profile on the design surfaces. The resource sharing algorithm was able to determine the needed temperatures on the heater surfaces to obtain the desired temperature distribution on the design surfaces in the nine cases examined.« less

A novel resource sharing algorithm based on distributed construction for radiant enclosure problems

DOE PAGES

Finzell, Peter; Bryden, Kenneth M.

2017-03-06

This study demonstrates a novel approach to solving inverse radiant enclosure problems based on distributed construction. Specifically, the problem of determining the temperature distribution needed on the heater surfaces to achieve a desired design surface temperature profile is recast as a distributed construction problem in which a shared resource, temperature, is distributed by computational agents moving blocks. The sharing of blocks between agents enables them to achieve their desired local state, which in turn achieves the desired global state. Each agent uses the current state of their local environment and a simple set of rules to determine when to exchangemore » blocks, each block representing a discrete unit of temperature change. This algorithm is demonstrated using the established two-dimensional inverse radiation enclosure problem. The temperature profile on the heater surfaces is adjusted to achieve a desired temperature profile on the design surfaces. The resource sharing algorithm was able to determine the needed temperatures on the heater surfaces to obtain the desired temperature distribution on the design surfaces in the nine cases examined.« less

Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Alexey; Cane, Mark A.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Clement, Amy C.; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Rajagopalan, Balaji

1998-08-01

Global analyses of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 1856 to 1991 are produced using three statistically based methods: optimal smoothing (OS), the Kaiman filter (KF) and optimal interpolation (OI). Each of these is accompanied by estimates of the error covariance of the analyzed fields. The spatial covariance function these methods require is estimated from the available data; the timemarching model is a first-order autoregressive model again estimated from data. The data input for the analyses are monthly anomalies from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office historical sea surface temperature data set (MOHSST5) [Parker et al., 1994] of the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) [Bottomley et al., 1990]. These analyses are compared with each other, with GOSTA, and with an analysis generated by projection (P) onto a set of empirical orthogonal functions (as in Smith et al. [1996]). In theory, the quality of the analyses should rank in the order OS, KF, OI, P, and GOSTA. It is found that the first four give comparable results in the data-rich periods (1951-1991), but at times when data is sparse the first three differ significantly from P and GOSTA. At these times the latter two often have extreme and fluctuating values, prima facie evidence of error. The statistical schemes are also verified against data not used in any of the analyses (proxy records derived from corals and air temperature records from coastal and island stations). We also present evidence that the analysis error estimates are indeed indicative of the quality of the products. At most times the OS and KF products are close to the OI product, but at times of especially poor coverage their use of information from other times is advantageous. The methods appear to reconstruct the major features of the global SST field from very sparse data. Comparison with other indications of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle show that the analyses provide usable information on interannual variability as far back as the 1860s.

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

Global Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product Using Assimilation Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf; Liu, Qing; De Lannoy, Gabrielle; Crow, Wade; Kimball, John; Koster, Randy; Ardizzone, Joe

2018-01-01

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx. 2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goreau, T.J.; Hayes, R.L.; Strong, A.

Global spatio-temporal patterns of mass coral reef bleaching during the first half of the 1990s continued to show the strong temperature correlations which first became established in the 1980s. Satellite sea surface temperature data and field observations were used to track thermal bleaching events in real time. Most bleaching events followed warm season sea surface temperature anomalies of around +1 degree celsius above historical means. Global bleaching patterns appear to have been strongly affected by worldwide cooling which followed eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. High water temperatures and mass coral reef bleaching took place in the Caribbean, Indianmore » Ocean, and South Pacific in 1991, but there were few thermal anomalies or bleaching events in 1992 and 1993, years which were markedly cooler worldwide. Following the settling of Mount Pinatubo aerosols and resumption of global warming trends, extensive ocean thermal hot spots and bleaching events resumed in the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and Indian Oceans in 1994. Bleaching again took place in hot spots in the Indian Ocean and Caribbean in 1995, and in the South Atlantic, Caribbean, South Pacific, North Pacific, and Persian Gulf in 1996. Coral reefs worldwide are now very close to their upper temperature tolerance limits. This sensitivity, and the fact that the warmest ecosystems have no source of immigrant species pre-adapted to warmer conditions, may make coral reef ecosystems the first to be severely impacted if global temperatures and sea levels remain at current values or increase further.« less

An Updated Global Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Anomaly Data Set: 1851-1990 (revised 1991) (NDP-020)

DOE Data Explorer

Jones, P. D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Raper, S. C.B. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Cherry, B. S.G. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Goodess, C. M. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Wigley, T. M. L. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Santer, B. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Kelly, P. M. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Bradley, R. S. [University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts (USA); Diaz, H. F. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environmental Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO (United States).

1991-01-01

This NDP presents land-based monthly surface-air-temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951-1970 reference period mean) on a 5° latitude by 10° longitude global grid. Monthly surface-air-temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957-1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65°S to 85°S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and from the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed in producing regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. The present updated version of this data set is identical to the earlier version for all records from 1851-1978 except for the addition of the Antarctic surface-air-temperature anomalies beginning in 1957. Beginning with the 1979 data, this package differs from the earlier version in several ways. Erroneous data for some sites have been corrected after a review of the actual station temperature data, and inconsistencies in the representation of missing values have been removed. For some grid locations, data have been added from stations that had not contributed to the original set. Data from satellites have also been used to correct station records where large discrepancies were evident. The present package also extends the record by adding monthly surface-air-temperature anomalies for the Northern (grid points from 85°N to 0°) and Southern (grid points from 5°S to 60°S) Hemispheres for 1985-1990. In addition, this updated package presents the monthly-mean-temperature records for the individual stations that were used to produce the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form.

Coherent changes of wintertime surface air temperatures over North Asia and North America.

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Lin, Hai

2018-03-29

The surface temperature variance and its potential change with global warming are most prominent in winter over Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Consistent wintertime surface temperature variability has been observed over large areas in Eurasia and North America on a broad range of time scales. However, it remains a challenge to quantify where and how the coherent change of temperature anomalies occur over the two continents. Here we demonstrate the coherent change of wintertime surface temperature anomalies over North Asia and the central-eastern parts of North America for the period from 1951 to 2015. This is supported by the results from the empirical orthogonal function analysis of surface temperature and temperature trend anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lands and the timeseries analysis of the regional averaged temperature anomalies over North Asia and the Great Plains and Great Lakes. The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection provides a pathway to connect the regional temperature anomalies over the two continents. The ABNA is also responsible for the decadal variation of the temperature relationship between North Asia and North America.

Decadal Trends and Common Dynamics of the Bio-Optical and Thermal Characteristics of the African Great Lakes

PubMed Central

Loiselle, Steven; Cózar, Andrés; Adgo, Enyew; Ballatore, Thomas; Chavula, Geoffrey; Descy, Jean Pierre; Harper, David M.; Kansiime, Frank; Kimirei, Ismael; Langenberg, Victor; Ma, Ronghua; Sarmento, Hugo; Odada, Eric

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes of East Africa are among the world’s most important freshwater ecosystems. Despite their importance in providing vital resources and ecosystem services, the impact of regional and global environmental drivers on this lacustrine system remains only partially understood. We make a systematic comparison of the dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal properties of thirteen of the largest African lakes between 2002 and 2011. Lake surface temperatures had a positive trend in all Great Lakes outside the latitude of 0° to 8° south, while the dynamics of those lakes within this latitude range were highly sensitive to global inter-annual climate drivers (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation). Lake surface temperature dynamics in nearly all lakes were found to be sensitive to the latitudinal position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Phytoplankton dynamics varied considerably between lakes, with increasing and decreasing trends. Intra-lake differences in both surface temperature and phytoplankton dynamics occurred for many of the larger lakes. This inter-comparison of bio-optical and thermal dynamics provides new insights into the response of these ecosystems to global and regional drivers. PMID:24699528

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, Richard J.; Nicholls, Zebedee R.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Allen, Myles R.

2017-06-01

Projections of the response to anthropogenic emission scenarios, evaluation of some greenhouse gas metrics, and estimates of the social cost of carbon often require a simple model that links emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to atmospheric concentrations and global temperature changes. An essential requirement of such a model is to reproduce typical global surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 responses displayed by more complex Earth system models (ESMs) under a range of emission scenarios, as well as an ability to sample the range of ESM response in a transparent, accessible and reproducible form. Here we adapt the simple model of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) to explicitly represent the state dependence of the CO2 airborne fraction. Our adapted model (FAIR) reproduces the range of behaviour shown in full and intermediate complexity ESMs under several idealised carbon pulse and exponential concentration increase experiments. We find that the inclusion of a linear increase in 100-year integrated airborne fraction with cumulative carbon uptake and global temperature change substantially improves the representation of the response of the climate system to CO2 on a range of timescales and under a range of experimental designs.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Science, 1971

1971-01-01

Mathematical models indicate increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide causes an increase in surface temperature at a decreasing rate, and the rate of temperature decrease caused by increasing aerosols increases with aerosol concentration. (AL)

Delayed warming hiatus over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Wenling; Hou, Shugui; Hu, Yongyun; Wu, Shuangye

2017-03-01

A reduction in the warming rate for the global surface temperature since the late 1990s has attracted much attention and caused a great deal of controversy. During the same time period, however, most previous studies have reported enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study we further examined the temperature trend of the TP and surrounding areas based on the homogenized temperature records for the period 1980-2014, we found that for the TP regions lower than 4000 m the warming rate has started to slow down since the late 1990s, a similar pattern consistent with the whole China and the global temperature trend. However, for the TP regions higher than 4000 m, this reduction in warming rate did not occur until the mid-2000s. This delayed warming hiatus could be related to changes in regional radiative, energy, and land surface processes in recent years.

Satellite Sensed Skin Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donlon, Craig

1997-01-01

Quantitative predictions of spatial and temporal changes the global climate rely heavily on the use of computer models. Unfortunately, such models cannot provide the basis for climate prediction because key physical processes are inadequately treated. Consequently, fine tuning procedures are often used to optimize the fit between model output and observational data and the validation of climate models using observations is essential if model based predictions of climate change are to be treated with any degree of confidence. Satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations provide high spatial and temporal resolution data which is extremely well suited to the initialization, definition of boundary conditions and, validation of climate models. In the case of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the SST (or more correctly the 'Skin' SST (SSST)) is a fundamental diagnostic variable to consider in the validation process. Daily global SST maps derived from satellite sensors also provide adequate data for the detection of global patterns of change which, unlike any other SST data set, repeatedly extend into the southern hemisphere extra-tropical regions. Such data are essential to the success of the spatial 'fingerprint' technique, which seeks to establish a north-south asymmetry where warming is suppressed in the high latitude Southern Ocean. Some estimates suggest that there is a greater than 80% chance of directly detecting significant change (97.5 % confidence level) after 10-12 years of consistent global observations of mean sea surface temperature. However, these latter statements should be qualified with the assumption that a negligible drift in the observing system exists and that biases between individual instruments required to derive a long term data set are small. Given that current estimates for the magnitude of global warming of 0.015 K yr(sup -1) - 0.025 K yr(sup -1), satellite SST data sets need to be both accurate and stable if such a warming trend is to be confidently detected. Some of these activities are focussed to develop and deploy instrumentation suitable for the collection of precise in situ measurements of the SSST which can be used to improve the accuracy of satellite measurements, while others develop techniques to generate improved global analyses of sea surface temperature using historical data.

Use of GLOBE Observations to Derive a Landsat 8 Split Window Algorithm for Urban Heat Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagerstrom, L.; Czajkowski, K. P.

2017-12-01

Surface temperature has been studied to investigate the warming of urban climates, also known as urban heat islands, which can impact urban planning, public health, pollution levels, and energy consumption. However, the full potential of remotely sensed images is limited when analyzing land surface temperature due to the daunting task of correcting for atmospheric effects. Landsat 8 has two thermal infrared sensors. With two bands in the infrared region, a split window algorithm (SWA), can be applied to correct for atmospheric effects. This project used in situ surface temperature measurements from NASA's ground observation program, the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE), to derive the correcting coefficients for use in the SWA. The GLOBE database provided land surface temperature data that coincided with Landsat 8 overpasses. The land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 SWA can be used to analyze for urban heat island effect.

Sensitivity of the equilibrium surface temperature of a GCM to systematic changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Saltzman, Barry

1990-01-01

The equilibrium response of surface temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentration, for six values between 100 and 1000 ppm, is calculated from a series of GCM experiments. This response is nonlinear, showing greater sensitivity for lower values of CO2 than for the higher values. It is suggested that changes in CO2 concentration of a given magnitude (e.g., 100 ppm) played a larger role in the Pleistocene ice-age-type temperature variations than in causing global temperature changes due to anthropogenic increases.

An Overview of the Naval Research Laboratory Ocean Surface Flux (NFLUX) System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

May, J. C.; Rowley, C. D.; Barron, C. N.

2016-02-01

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) ocean surface flux (NFLUX) system is an end-to-end data processing and assimilation system used to provide near-real time satellite-based surface heat flux fields over the global ocean. Swath-level air temperature (TA), specific humidity (QA), and wind speed (WS) estimates are produced using multiple polynomial regression algorithms with inputs from satellite sensor data records from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder, and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 sensors. Swath-level WS estimates are also retrieved from satellite environmental data records from WindSat, the MetOp scatterometers, and the Oceansat scatterometer. Swath-level solar and longwave radiative flux estimates are produced utilizing the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for Global Circulation Models (RRTMG). Primary inputs to the RRTMG include temperature and moisture profiles and cloud liquid and ice water paths from the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System. All swath-level satellite estimates undergo an automated quality control process and are then assimilated with atmospheric model forecasts to produce 3-hourly gridded analysis fields. The turbulent heat flux fields, latent and sensible heat flux, are determined from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) 3.0 bulk algorithms using inputs of TA, QA, WS, and a sea surface temperature model field. Quality-controlled in situ observations over a one-year time period from May 2013 through April 2014 form the reference for validating ocean surface state parameter and heat flux fields. The NFLUX fields are evaluated alongside the Navy's operational global atmospheric model, the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). NFLUX is shown to have smaller biases and lower or similar root mean square errors compared to NAVGEM.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

PubMed

Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J

2012-07-01

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Land surface energy budget during dry spells: global CMIP5 AMIP simulations vs. satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Taylor, Christopher M.; Harris, Phil P.; Ghent, Darren; Folwell, Sonja S.

2015-04-01

During extended periods without rain (dry spells), the soil can dry out due to vegetation transpiration and soil evaporation. At some point in this drying cycle, land surface conditions change from energy-limited to water-limited evapotranspiration, and this is accompanied by an increase of the ground and overlying air temperatures. Regionally, the characteristics of this transition determine the influence of soil moisture on air temperature and rainfall. Global Climate Models (GCMs) disagree on where and how strongly the surface energy budget is limited by soil moisture. Flux tower observations are improving our understanding of these dry down processes, but typical heterogeneous landscapes are too sparsely sampled to ascertain a representative regional response. Alternatively, satellite observations of land surface temperature (LST) provide indirect information about the surface energy partition at 1km resolution globally. In our study, we analyse how well the dry spell dynamics of LST are represented by GCMs across the globe. We use a spatially and temporally aggregated diagnostic to describe the composite response of LST during surface dry down in rain-free periods in distinct climatic regions. The diagnostic is derived from daytime MODIS-Terra LST observations and bias-corrected meteorological re-analyses, and compared against the outputs of historical climate simulations of seven models running the CMIP5 AMIP experiment. Dry spell events are stratified by antecedent precipitation, land cover type and geographic regions to assess the sensitivity of surface warming rates to soil moisture levels at the onset of a dry spell for different surface and climatic zones. In a number of drought-prone hot spot regions, we find important differences in simulated dry spell behaviour, both between models, and compared to observations. These model biases are likely to compromise seasonal forecasts and future climate projections.

Robust scaling with global mean temperature of future heat stress projections within CMIP5 and CESM LENS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Heat stress is of global concern because it threatens human and animal health and productivity. Here we use the HumanIndexMod to calculate 3 moist thermodynamic quantities and 9 commonly and operationally used heat stress metrics (Buzan et al., 2015). We drive the HumanIndexMod with output from CMIP5 and the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LENS) using the greenhouse gasses forcing, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We limit our analysis to models that provide 4x daily output of surface pressure, reference height temperature and moisture, and use lowest model level winds where available, 18 CMIP5 and 40 LENS simulations. We show three novel results: Comparing time slices (2081-2100 and 2026-2045 for CMIP5, and 2071-2080 and 2026-2035 for LENS), we note that each individual heat stress metric extreme, within the multi-model mean, has spatial patterns that are highly correlated (>0.99). Moist thermodynamics and heat stress extremes are intrinsically linked to the thermodynamics of the climate, and scales simply with global mean surface temperature (GMT) changes. For example, large swaths of land surface area from 30°N to 30°S, excluding the Sahel, the Arabian Peninsula, and Himalayan Plateau, show the response of wet bulb temperature to be 0.85°C/°C GMT (standard deviation <0.25) for CMIP5 and 0.85°C/°C GMT (standard deviation <0.2) for LENS in agreement with prior work by Sherwood and Huber (2010). Many heat stress metrics, after being normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, are highly spatially correlated with each other, and may reduce the necessity of numerous metrics to properly quantify total heat stress. The three results establish that different climate models, with various underlying assumptions (CMIP5) and ranges of internal variability (LENS), show similar responses in heat stress with respect to global mean temperature changes. Thus, we find the uncertainty of heat stress extremes, even changes at the fine scale, is largely subsumed within the main uncertainties encompassed in transient climate sensitivity. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that outdoor worker productivity will drop significantly with substantial climate change.

The Interrelationship Between Temperature Changes in the Free Atmosphere and Sea Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, Reginald E.; Wu, Zhong-Xiang

1992-03-01

Fields of sea surface temperature anomalies from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) and microwave sounding measurements (MSU) of temperature in the troposphere are examined separately and together for the 1979-1988 period. Global correlation patterns of both sets of fields are investigated at a range of leads and lags up to 6 months and exhibit a wide range of correlation structure. There are regions, such as the tropical eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature anomalies persist for several months and are associated with local air temperature anomalies; in this particular example, about 0.7°C air temperature change is associated with a 1.0°C sea temperature change. By contrast, some ocean regions and many atmospheric regions, mostly in middle and high latitude, show only local spatial correlations that disappear completely in a month or two. The most persistent and extensive spatial correlation patterns are quite different for the sea and the air. In the sea the "butterfly" pattern of the Pacific is the most important and reverses sign between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific and subtropics. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies associated with this pattern are similar to the correlation pattern. For the atmosphere the main correlation pattern is an equatorial belt with no sign changes in the tropics; this pattern is linked to the oceanic El Niño mode. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies show peak values on both sides of the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. Based mainly on the results from the spatial patterns, certain regions are selected for intercomparison of time series. In the tropical eastern Pacific the sea leads the air by about a month while in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions the sequence is reversed.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Terrestrial Observations from NOAA Operational Satellites.

PubMed

Yates, H; Strong, A; McGinnis, D; Tarpley, D

1986-01-31

Important applications to oceanography, hydrology, and agriculture have been developed from operational satellites of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and are currently expanding rapidly. Areas of interest involving the oceans include sea surface temperature, ocean currents, and ocean color. Satellites can monitor various hydrological phenomena, including regional and global snow cover, river and sea ice extent, and areas of global inundation. Agriculturally important quantities derived from operational satellite observations include precipitation, daily temperature extremes, canopy temperatures, insolation, and snow cover. This overview describes the current status of each area.

Using Ground Measurements to Examine the Surface Layer Parameterization Scheme in NCEP GFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, W.; Ek, M. B.; Mitchell, K.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior and the limitation of the surface layer parameneterization scheme is important for parameterization of surface-atmosphere exchange processes in atmospheric models, accurate prediction of near-surface temperature and identifying the role of different physical processes in contributing to errors. In this study, we examine the surface layer paramerization scheme in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) using the ground flux measurements including the FLUXNET data. The model simulated surface fluxes, surface temperature and vertical profiles of temperature and wind speed are compared against the observations. The limits of applicability of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), which describes the vertical behavior of nondimensionalized mean flow and turbulence properties within the surface layer, are quantified in daytime and nighttime using the data. Results from unstable regimes and stable regimes are discussed.

Estimation of Global Subsurface Thermal Structure from Satellite Remote Sensing Observations Based on Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, H.; Yan, X. H.

2017-12-01

Subsurface thermal structure of the global ocean is a key factor that reflects the impact of the global climate variability and change. Accurately determining and describing the global subsurface and deeper ocean thermal structure from satellite measurements is becoming even more important for understanding the ocean interior anomaly and dynamic processes during recent global warming and hiatus. It is essential but challenging to determine the extent to which such surface remote sensing observations can be used to develop information about the global ocean interior. This study proposed a Support Vector Regression (SVR) method to estimate Subsurface Temperature Anomaly (STA) in the global ocean. The SVR model can well estimate the global STA upper 1000 m through a suite of satellite remote sensing observations of sea surface parameters (including Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA), Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA), Sea Surface Salinity Anomaly (SSSA) and Sea Surface Wind Anomaly (SSWA)) with in situ Argo data for training and testing at different depth levels. Here, we employed the MSE and R2 to assess SVR performance on the STA estimation. The results from the SVR model were validated for the accuracy and reliability using the worldwide Argo STA data. The average MSE and R2 of the 15 levels are 0.0090 / 0.0086 / 0.0087 and 0.443 / 0.457 / 0.485 for 2-attributes (SSHA, SSTA) / 3-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA) / 4-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA) SVR, respectively. The estimation accuracy was improved by including SSSA and SSWA for SVR input (MSE decreased by 0.4% / 0.3% and R2 increased by 1.4% / 4.2% on average). While, the estimation accuracy gradually decreased with the increase of the depth from 500 m. The results showed that SSSA and SSWA, in addition to SSTA and SSHA, are useful parameters that can help estimate the subsurface thermal structure, as well as improve the STA estimation accuracy. In future, we can figure out more potential and useful sea surface parameters from satellite remote sensing as input attributes so as to further improve the STA sensing accuracy from machine learning. This study can provide a helpful technique for studying thermal variability in the ocean interior which has played an important role in recent global warming and hiatus from satellite observations over global scale.

The global surface temperatures of the Moon as measured by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J.-P.; Paige, D. A.; Greenhagen, B. T.; Sefton-Nash, E.

2017-02-01

The Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has been acquiring solar reflectance and mid-infrared radiance measurements nearly continuously since July of 2009. Diviner is providing the most comprehensive view of how regoliths on airless bodies store and exchange thermal energy with the space environment. Approximately a quarter trillion calibrated radiance measurements of the Moon, acquired over 5.5 years by Diviner, have been compiled into a 0.5° resolution global dataset with a 0.25 h local time resolution. Maps generated with this dataset provide a global perspective of the surface energy balance of the Moon and reveal the complex and extreme nature of the lunar surface thermal environment. Our achievable map resolution, both spatially and temporally, will continue to improve with further data acquisition. Daytime maximum temperatures are sensitive to the albedo of the surface and are ∼387-397 K at the equator, dropping to ∼95 K just before sunrise, though anomalously warm areas characterized by high rock abundances can be > 50 K warmer than the zonal average nighttime temperatures. An asymmetry is observed between the morning and afternoon temperatures due to the thermal inertia of the lunar regolith with the dusk terminator ∼30 K warmer than the dawn terminator at the equator. An increase in albedo with incidence angle is required to explain the observed decrease in temperatures with latitude. At incidence angles exceeding ∼40°, topography and surface roughness influence temperatures resulting in increasing scatter in temperatures and anisothermality between Diviner channels. Nighttime temperatures are sensitive to the thermophysical properties of the regolith. High thermal inertia (TI) materials such as large rocks, remain warmer during the long lunar night and result in anomalously warm nighttime temperatures and anisothermality in the Diviner channels. Anomalous maximum and minimum temperatures are highlighted by subtracting the zonal mean temperatures from maps. Terrains can be characterized as low or high reflectance and low or high TI. Low maximum temperatures result from high reflectance surfaces while low minimum temperatures from low-TI material. Conversely, high maximum temperatures result from dark surface, and high minimum temperatures from high-TI materials. Impact craters are found to modify regolith properties over large distances. The thermal signature of Tycho is asymmetric, consistent with an oblique impact coming from the west. Some prominent crater rays are visible in the thermal data and require material with a higher thermal inertial than nominal regolith. The influence of the formation of the Orientale basin on the regolith properties is observable over a substantial portion of the western hemisphere despite its age (∼3.8 Gyr), and may have contributed to mixing of highland and mare material on the southwest margin of Oceanus Procellarum where the gradient in radiative properties at the mare-highland contact is broad (∼200 km).

A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burt, James E.

This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

Teachers and Students Knowledge about Global Warming: A Study in Smoke Disaster Area of Indonesia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosidin, Undang; Suyatna, Agus

2017-01-01

The average temperature on the Earth's surface has globally increased. This issue was generally caused by the increasing of greenhouse gases concentrations due to human activities. Therefore, the knowledge about global warming becomes major topics for students and educators. This research aimed to investigate how the teachers and students…

The Aquarius Mission: Sea Surface Salinity from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, Chester; Chao, Y.; deCharon, A.; Edelstein, W.; Hildebrand, P.; Lagerloef, G.; LeVine, D.; Pellerano, F.; Rahmat-Samii, Y.; Ruf, C.

2001-01-01

Aquarius is a new satellite mission concept to study the impact of the global water cycle on the ocean, including the response of the ocean to buoyancy forcing and the subsequent feedback of the ocean on the climate. The measurement objective of Aquarius is sea surface salinity, which reflects the concentration of freshwater at the ocean surface. Salinity affects the dielectric constant of sea water and, consequently, the radiometric emission of the sea surface to space. Rudimentary space observations with an L-band radiometer were first made from Skylab in the mid-70s and numerous aircraft missions of increasing quality and improved technology have been conducted since then. Technology is now available to carry out a global mission, which includes both an accurate L band (1.413 Ghz) radiometer and radar system in space and a global array of in situ observations for calibration and validation, in order to address key NASA Earth Science Enterprise questions about the global cycling of water and the response of the ocean circulation to climate change. The key scientific objectives of Aquarius examine the cycling of water at the ocean's surface, the response of the ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing, and the impact of buoyancy forcing on the ocean's thermal feedback to the climate. Global surface salinity will also improve our ability to model the surface solubility chemistry needed to estimate the air-sea exchange of CO2. In order to meet these science objectives, the NASA Salinity Sea Ice Working Group over the past three years has concluded that the mission measurement goals should be better than 0.2 practical salinity units (psu) accuracy, 100 km resolution, and weekly to revisits. The Aquarius mission proposes to meet these measurement requirements through a real aperture dual-polarized L band radiometer and radar system. This system can achieve the less than 0.1 K radiometric temperature measurement accuracy that is required. A 3 m antenna at approx. 600km altitude in a sun-synchronous orbit and 300 km swath can provide the desired 100 km resolution global coverage every week. Within this decade, it may be possible to combine satellite sea surface salinity measurements with ongoing satellite observations of temperature, surface height, air-sea fluxes; vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from the Argo program; and modern ocean/atmosphere modeling and data assimilation tools, in order to finally address the complex influence of buoyancy on the ocean circulation and climate.

Reducing the biases in simulated polar climate by incorporating realistic surface spectral emissivity into the global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Chen, X.; Flanner, M.; Yang, P.; Feldman, D.; Kuo, C.

2017-12-01

Surface longwave emissivity can be less than unity and vary significantly with frequency. The emissivities of water, ice, and bare land all exhibit different spectral dependence, for both the far-IR and mid-IR bands. However, most climate models still assume blackbody surface in the longwave (LW) radiation scheme of their atmospheric modules. This study incorporates realistic surface spectral emissivity into the RRTMG_LW, the LW radiation scheme in CAM, which is the atmospheric component of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.1.1. Then we evaluate its impact on simulated climatology, especially for the polar regions. By ensuring the consistency of the broadband longwave flux across different modules of the CESM, the TOA energy balance in the simulation can be attained without additional tuning of the model. While the impact on global mean surface temperature is small, the surface temperature differences in Polar Regions are statistically significant. The mean surface temperature in Arctic in the modified CESM is 1.5K warmer than that in the standard CESM, reducing the cold bias that the standard CESM has with respect to observations. Accordingly the sea ice fraction in the modified CESM simulation is less than that in the standard CESM simulation by as much as 0.1, which significantly reduces the positive biases in the simulated sea ice coverage by the CESM. The largest sea-ice coverage difference happens in August and September, when new sea ice starts to form. The similar changes can be seen for the simulated Antarctic surface climate as well. In a nutshell, incorporating realistic surface spectral emissivity helps improving the fidelity of simulated surface energy budget in the polar region, which leads to a better simulation of the surface temperature and sea ice coverage.

Estimating surface soil moisture from SMAP observations using a neural network technique

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A Neural Network (NN) algorithm was developed to estimate global surface soil moisture for April 2015 to June 2016 with a 2-3 day repeat frequency using passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, surface soil temperatures from the NASA Goddard Earth Observ...

Impact of anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiuyan; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Hua

2017-01-01

The impact of the total effects due to anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system is studied using an aerosol-climate online model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero. The results show that the summer mean net all-sky shortwave fluxes averaged over East Asian monsoon region (EAMR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface reduce by 4.8 and 5.0 W m- 2, respectively, due to the increases of global aerosol emissions in 2000 relative to 1850. Changes in radiations and their resulting changes in heat and water transport and cloud fraction contribute together to the surface cooling over EAMR in summer. The increases in global anthropogenic aerosols lead to a decrease of 2.1 K in summer mean surface temperature and an increase of 0.4 hPa in summer mean surface pressure averaged over EAMR, respectively. It is shown that the changes in surface temperature and pressure are significantly larger over land than ocean, thus decreasing the contrast of land-sea surface temperature and pressure. This results in the marked anomalies of north and northeast winds over eastern and southern China and the surrounding oceans in summer, thereby weakening the EASM. The summer mean precipitation averaged over the EAMR reduces by 12%. The changes in non-East Asian aerosol emissions play a more important role in inducing the changes of local temperature and pressure, and thus significantly exacerbate the weakness of the EASM circulation due to local aerosol changes. The weakening of circulation due to both is comparable, and even the effect of non-local aerosols is larger in individual regions. The changes of local and non-local aerosols contribute comparably to the reductions in precipitation over oceans, whereas cause opposite changes over eastern China. Our results highlight the importance of aerosol changes outside East Asia in the impact of the changes of anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.

Surface temperature/heat transfer measurement using a quantitative phosphor thermography system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buck, G. M.

1991-01-01

A relative-intensity phosphor thermography technique developed for surface heating studies in hypersonic wind tunnels is described. A direct relationship between relative emission intensity and phosphor temperature is used for quantitative surface temperature measurements in time. The technique provides global surface temperature-time histories using a 3-CCD (Charge Coupled Device) video camera and digital recording system. A current history of technique development at Langley is discussed. Latest developments include a phosphor mixture for a greater range of temperature sensitivity and use of castable ceramics for inexpensive test models. A method of calculating surface heat-transfer from thermal image data in blowdown wind tunnels is included in an appendix, with an analysis of material thermal heat-transfer properties. Results from tests in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel are presented for a ceramic orbiter configuration and a four-inch diameter hemisphere model. Data include windward heating for bow-shock/wing-shock interactions on the orbiter wing surface, and a comparison with prediction for hemisphere heating distribution.

Sea Surface Salinity and Wind Retrieval Algorithm Using Combined Passive-Active L-Band Microwave Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yueh, Simon H.; Chaubell, Mario J.

2011-01-01

Aquarius is a combined passive/active L-band microwave instrument developed to map the salinity field at the surface of the ocean from space. The data will support studies of the coupling between ocean circulation, the global water cycle, and climate. The primary science objective of this mission is to monitor the seasonal and interannual variation of the large scale features of the surface salinity field in the open ocean with a spatial resolution of 150 kilometers and a retrieval accuracy of 0.2 practical salinity units globally on a monthly basis. The measurement principle is based on the response of the L-band (1.413 gigahertz) sea surface brightness temperatures (T (sub B)) to sea surface salinity. To achieve the required 0.2 practical salinity units accuracy, the impact of sea surface roughness (e.g. wind-generated ripples and waves) along with several factors on the observed brightness temperature has to be corrected to better than a few tenths of a degree Kelvin. To the end, Aquarius includes a scatterometer to help correct for this surface roughness effect.

The global distribution of Martian permafrost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paige, David A.

1991-01-01

Accurately determining the present global distribution of Martian ground ice will be an important step towards understanding the evolution of the Martian surface and atmosphere, and could greatly facilitate human and robotic exploration of the planet. The quantitative Mars permafrost studies demonstrated the potential importance of a number of factors determining the past and present distribution of subsurface ice on Mars, but have not considered the issue of regional variability. To consider the distribution of Mars permafrost in greater detail a new thermal model was developed that can calculate Martian surface and subsurface temperatures as a function of time-of-day and season. The results indicate that the distribution of Martian permafrost is highly sensitive to the bulk thermal properties of the overlying soil. Viking IRTM observations of diurnal surface temperature variations show that the bulk thermal properties of midlatitude surface materials exhibit a high degree of regional inhomogeneity. In general, the results show that the global distribution of permafrost is at least as sensitive to the thermal properties of the overlying surface material as it is to variations in surface isolation due to large scale variations in Mars' orbital and axial elements. In particular, they imply that subsurface ice may exist just a few centimeters below the surface in regions of low thermal inertia and high albedo, which are widespread at latitudes ranging from the equator to +60 degrees latitude.

Oceanic biogeochemical controls on global dynamics of persistent organic pollutants.

PubMed

Dachs, Jordi; Lohmann, Rainer; Ockenden, Wendy A; Méjanelle, Laurence; Eisenreich, Steven J; Jones, Kevin C

2002-10-15

Understanding and quantifying the global dynamics and sinks of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is important to assess their environmental impact and fate. Air-surface exchange processes, where temperature plays a central role in controlling volatilization and deposition, are of key importance in controlling global POP dynamics. The present study is an assessment of the role of oceanic biogeochemical processes, notably phytoplankton uptake and vertical fluxes of particles, on the global dynamics of POPs. Field measurements of atmospheric polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs), and furans (PCDFs) are combined with remote sensing estimations of oceanic temperature, wind speed, and chlorophyll, to model the interactions between air-water exchange, phytoplankton uptake, and export of organic matter and POPs out of the mixed surface ocean layer. Deposition is enhanced in the mid-high latitudes and is driven by sinking marine particulate matter, rather than by a cold condensation effect. However, the relative contribution of the biological pump is a function of the physical-chemical properties of POPs. It is concluded that oceanic biogeochemical processes play a critical role in controlling the global dynamics and the ultimate sink of POPs.

Sentinel-3a: commissioning phase results of its optical payload

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieke, J.; Mavrocordatos, C.

2017-09-01

The Sentinel-3 (S3) is a Global Land and Ocean Mission [1] currently in development as part of the European Commission's Copernicus programme (former: Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) [2]). The multi-instrument Sentinel-3 mission measures sea-surface topography, sea- and land-surface temperature, ocean colour and land colour to support ocean forecasting systems, as well as environmental and climate monitoring with near-real time data.

Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

2018-05-01

This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

Wind Tunnel Measurements of Shuttle Orbiter Global Heating with Comparisons to Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berry, Scott A.; Merski, N. Ronald; Blanchard, Robert C.

2002-01-01

An aerothermodynamic database of global heating images was acquired of the Shuttle Orbiter in the NASA Langley Research Center 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. These results were obtained for comparison to the global infrared images of the Orbiter in flight from the infrared sensing aeroheating flight experiment (ISAFE). The most recent ISAFE results from STS-103, consisted of port side images, at hypersonic conditions, of the surface features that result from the strake vortex scrubbing along the side of the vehicle. The wind tunnel results were obtained with the phosphor thermography system, which also provides global information and thus is ideally suited for comparison to the global flight results. The aerothermodynamic database includes both windward and port side heating images of the Orbiter for a range of angles of attack (20 to 40 deg), freestream unit Reynolds number (1 x 10(exp 6))/ft to 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft, body flap deflections (0, 5, and 10 deg), speed brake deflections (0 and 45 deg), as well as with boundary layer trips for forced transition to turbulence heating results. Sample global wind tunnel heat transfer images were extrapolated to flight conditions for comparison to Orbiter flight data. A windward laminar case for an angle of attack of 40 deg was extrapolated to Mach 11.6 flight conditions for comparison to STS-2 flight thermocouple results. A portside wind tunnel image for an angle of attack of 25 deg was extrapolated for Mach 5 flight conditions for comparison to STS-103 global surface temperatures. The comparisons showed excellent qualitative agreement, however the extrapolated wind tunnel results over-predicted the flight surface temperatures on the order of 5% on the windward surface and slightly higher on the portside.

Effects of a transient sea surface temperature anomaly on the energetics of the Mintz-Arakawa model atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, S. H.

1974-01-01

The possible response of the atmosphere, as simulated by the two level Mintz-Arakawa global general circulation model, to a transient North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is investigated in terms of the energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. Results indicate that the transient SST variations of reasonable magnitude in the North Pacific Ocean can induce a disturbing effect on the global energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. The ability of the two level Mintz-Arakawa model to simulate the atmospheric energetics is also examined. Except in the tropics, the model exhibits a reasonable and realistic energy budget.

Recent Global Warming as Observed by AIRS and Depicted in GISSTEMP and MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae; Iredell, Lena

2017-01-01

AIRS Version-6 monthly mean level-3 surface temperature products confirm the result, depicted in the GISSTEMP dataset, that the earth's surface temperature has been warming since early 2015, though not before that. AIRS is at a higher spatial resolution than GISSTEMP, and produces sharper spatial features which are otherwise in excellent agreement with those of GISSTEMP. Version-6 AO Ts anomalies are consistent with those of Version-6 AIRS/AMSU. Version-7 AO anomalies should be even more accurate, especially at high latitudes. ARCs of MERRA-2 Ts anomalies are spurious as a result of a discontinuity which occurred somewhere between 2007 and 2008. This decreases global mean trends.

Surface-Wind Anomalies in North-Atlantic and North Pacific from SSM/I Observations: Influence on Temperature of Adjoining Land Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, R.; Ingraham, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Starr, D.; Terry, J.

1998-01-01

Surface winds over the oceans are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, assigning direction by Variational Analysis Method (VAM). Validations by comparison with other measurements indicate highly-satisfactory data quality. Providing global coverage from 1988, the dataset is a convenient source for surface-wind climatology. In this study, the interannual variability of zonal winds is analyzed concentrating on the westerlies in North Atlantic and North Pacific, above 30 N. Interannual differences in the westerlies exceeding 10 m sec (exp -1) are observed over large regions, often accompanied by changes of the same magnitude in the easterlies below 30 N. We concentrate on February/March, since elevated temperatures, by advancing snow-melt, can produce early spring. The extremely strong westerlies in 1997 observed in these months over North Atlantic (and also North Pacific) apparently contributed to large surface-temperature anomalies in western Europe, on the order of +3 C above the climatic monthly average for England and France. At these latitudes strong positive anomalies extended in a ring around the globe. We formulated an Index of South westerlies for the North Atlantic, which can serve as an indicator for day-by-day advection effects into Europe. In comparing 1997 and 1998 with the previous years, we establish significant correlations with the temperature anomalies (one to five days later, depending on the region, and on the season). This variability of the ocean-surface winds and of the temperature anomalies on land may be related to the El Nino/La Nina oscillations. Such large temperature fluctuations over large areas, whatever the cause, can be regarded as noise in attempts to assess long-term trends in global temperature.

Clear-Sky Longwave Irradiance at the Earth's Surface--Evaluation of Climate Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.

2001-04-01

An evaluation of the clear-sky longwave irradiance at the earth's surface (LI) simulated in climate models and in satellite-based global datasets is presented. Algorithm-based estimates of LI, derived from global observations of column water vapor and surface (or screen air) temperature, serve as proxy `observations.' All datasets capture the broad zonal variation and seasonal behavior in LI, mainly because the behavior in column water vapor and temperature is reproduced well. Over oceans, the dependence of annual and monthly mean irradiance upon sea surface temperature (SST) closely resembles the observed behavior of column water with SST. In particular, the observed hemispheric difference in the summer minus winter column water dependence on SST is found in all models, though with varying seasonal amplitudes. The analogous behavior in the summer minus winter LI is seen in all datasets. Over land, all models have a more highly scattered dependence of LI upon surface temperature compared with the situation over the oceans. This is related to a much weaker dependence of model column water on the screen-air temperature at both monthly and annual timescales, as observed. The ability of climate models to simulate realistic LI fields depends as much on the quality of model water vapor and temperature fields as on the quality of the longwave radiation codes. In a comparison of models with observations, root-mean-square gridpoint differences in mean monthly column water and temperature are 4-6 mm (5-8 mm) and 0.5-2 K (3-4 K), respectively, over large regions of ocean (land), consistent with the intermodel differences in LI of 5-13 W m2 (15-28 W m2).

Temperature Data Shows Warming in 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

TThe figure above depicts how much air temperatures near the Earth's surface changed relative to the global mean temperature from 1951 to 1980. NASA researchers used maps of urban areas derived from city lights data to account for the 'heat island' effect of cities. The red and orange colors show that temperatures are warmer in most regions of the world when compared to the 1951 to 1980 'normal' temperatures. Warming around the world has been widespread, but it is not present everywhere. The largest warming is in Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia, as indicated by the deeper red colors. The lower 48 United States have become warmer recently, but only enough to make the temperatures comparable to what they were in the 1930s. The scale on the bottom of these temperature anomaly images represent degrees in Celsius. The negative numbers represent cooling and the positive numbers depict warming. Overall, the air temperature near the Earth's surface has warmed by 1oF (0.6oC) globally, on average, over the last century. For more information and additional images, read Satellites Shed Light on a Warmer World. Image courtesy Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

PubMed Central

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

1997-01-01

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

Revisiting the climate impacts of cool roofs around the globe using an Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George

2016-08-01

Solar reflective ‘cool roofs’ absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11 ± 0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14 ± 0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Revisiting the Climate Impacts of Cool Roofs around the Globe Using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Zhang, K.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Solar reflective "cool roofs" absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations Derived From a 63-Station Radiosonde Network

DOE Data Explorer

Angell, J. K. [NOAA, Air Resources Laboratory

2011-01-01

Surface temperatures and thickness-derived temperatures from a 63-station, globally distributed radiosonde network have been used to estimate global, hemispheric, and zonal annual and seasonal temperature deviations. Most of the temperature values used were column-mean temperatures, obtained from the differences in height (thickness) between constant-pressure surfaces at individual radiosonde stations. The pressure-height data before 1980 were obtained from published values in Monthly Climatic Data for the World. Between 1980 and 1990, Angell used data from both the Climatic Data for the World and the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) Network received at the National Meteorological Center. Between 1990 and 1995, the data were obtained only from GTS, and since 1995 the data have been obtained from National Center for Atmospheric Research files. The data are evaluated as deviations from the mean based on the interval 1958-1977. The station deviations have been averaged (with equal weighting) to obtain annual and seasonal temperature deviations for the globe, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and the following latitudinal zones: North (60° N-90° N) and South (60° S-90° S) Polar; North (30° N-60° N) and South (30° S-60° S) Temperate; North (10° N-30° N) and South (10° S-30° S) Subtropical; Tropical(30° S-30° N); and Equatorial (10° S-10° N). The seasonal calculations are for the standard meteorological seasons (i.e., winter is defined as December, January, and February; spring is March, April, and May, etc.) and the annual calculations are for December through the following November (i.e., for the four meteorological seasons). For greater details, see Angell and Korshover (1983) and Angell (1988, 1991)

Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) air temperature data products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, Lei; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.

2015-01-01

There is a high demand for agrohydrologic models to use gridded near-surface air temperature data as the model input for estimating regional and global water budgets and cycles. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) developed by combining simulation models with observations provides a long-term gridded meteorological dataset at the global scale. However, the GLDAS air temperature products have not been comprehensively evaluated, although the accuracy of the products was assessed in limited areas. In this study, the daily 0.25° resolution GLDAS air temperature data are compared with two reference datasets: 1) 1-km-resolution gridded Daymet data (2002 and 2010) for the conterminous United States and 2) global meteorological observations (2000–11) archived from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The comparison of the GLDAS datasets with the GHCN datasets, including 13 511 weather stations, indicates a fairly high accuracy of the GLDAS data for daily temperature. The quality of the GLDAS air temperature data, however, is not always consistent in different regions of the world; for example, some areas in Africa and South America show relatively low accuracy. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal a high agreement between GLDAS and Daymet daily air temperature datasets, although spatial details in high mountainous areas are not sufficiently estimated by the GLDAS data. The evaluation of the GLDAS data demonstrates that the air temperature estimates are generally accurate, but caution should be taken when the data are used in mountainous areas or places with sparse weather stations.

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of GEOSAT sea surface height, SSMI surface wind speed, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Zlotnicki, V.; Newman, J.; Brown, O.; Wentz, F.

1991-01-01

Monthly mean global distributions for 1988 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map. Distributions are included for sea surface height variation estimated from GEOSAT; surface wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on NOAA spacecrafts; and the Cartesian components of the 10m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation value are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

NWS Marine Forecast Areas

Science.gov Websites

Currents Global Ocean Model Sea Surface Temperatures Gulf Stream ASCII Data Gulf Stream Comparison Gridded ASCAT Scatterometer Winds Lightning Strike Density Satellite Imagery Ocean Global Ocean Model , 2017 19:10:57 UTC Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2015-01-01

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.;

The role of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) on Ancient Climates and Implications for Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cumming, M.

2017-12-01

Our increasingly robust history of ancient climates indicates that high latitude glaciation is the ultimate product of an episodic cooling trend that began about 100-million years ago rather than a result of a yet-to-be identified modal change. Antarctic geography (continent surrounded by ocean) allowed ice to develop prior to significant glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (ocean surrounded by land), but global ice volume generally increased as Earth cooled. The question of what caused the Ice Ages should be reframed as to "What caused the Cenozoic Cooling?" Records tell us that changes in temperature and CO2 levels rise and fall together, however it is not clear when CO2 acts as a driver versus when it is primarily an indicator of temperature change. The episodic nature of the cooling trend suggests other more dynamic phenomena are involved. It is proposed that oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a significant role in regulating Earth's surface temperature. Robust MOC has a cooling effect which results from its sequestration of cold waters (together with their increased heat-absorbing potential) below the surface. Unable to better absorb equatorial insolation for great lengths of time, oceanic deep waters are not able to fully compensate for the heat lost by warm-water transport to Polar Regions. A lag-time between cooling and subsequent warming yields lower operating temperatures commensurate with the strength of global MOC. The long-term decline in global temperatures is largely explained by the tectonic reshaping of ocean basins and the connections between them such that MOC has generally, but not uniformly, increased. Geophysically Influenced MOC (GIMOC) has caused a significant proportion of the lowering of global temperatures in the Cenozoic Era. Short-term disruptions in MOC (and subsequent impacts on global temperatures) were likely involved in Late Pleistocene glacial termination events and may already be compounding present anthropogenic CO2 induced warming.

Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelbrecht, Francois; Adegoke, Jimmy; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfe, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles;

Impact Studies of a 2 C Global Warming on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2004-01-01

The possible impact of an increase in global temperatures of about 2 C, as may be caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is studied using historical satellite records of surface temperatures and sea ice from late 1970s to 2003. Updated satellite data indicate that the perennial ice continued to decline at an even faster rate of 9.2 % per decade than previously reported while concurrently, the surface temperatures have steadily been going up in most places except for some parts of northern Russia. Surface temperature is shown to be highly correlated with sea ice concentration in the seasonal sea ice regions. Results of regression analysis indicates that for every 1 C increase in temperature, the perennial ice area decreases by about 1.48 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers with the correlation coefficient being significant but only -0.57. Arctic warming is estimated to be about 0.46 C per decade on average in the Arctic but is shown to be off center with respect to the North Pole, and is prominent mainly in the Western Arctic and North America. The length of melt has been increasing by 13 days per decade over sea ice covered areas suggesting a thinning in the ice cover. The length of melt also increased by 5 days per decade over Greenland, 7 days per decade over the permafrost areas of North America but practically no change in Eurasia. Statistically derived projections indicate that the perennial sea ice cover would decline considerably in 2025, 2035, and 2060 when temperatures are predicted by models to reach the 2 C global increase.

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

Assessing recent air-sea freshwater flux changes using a surface temperature-salinity space framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grist, Jeremy P.; Josey, Simon A.; Zika, Jan D.; Evans, Dafydd Gwyn; Skliris, Nikolaos

2016-12-01

A novel assessment of recent changes in air-sea freshwater fluxes has been conducted using a surface temperature-salinity framework applied to four atmospheric reanalyses. Viewed in the T-S space of the ocean surface, the complex pattern of the longitude-latitude space mean global Precipitation minus Evaporation (PME) reduces to three distinct regions. The analysis is conducted for the period 1979-2007 for which there is most evidence for a broadening of the (atmospheric) tropical belt. All four of the reanalyses display an increase in strength of the water cycle. The range of increase is between 2% and 30% over the period analyzed, with an average of 14%. Considering the average across the reanalyses, the water cycle changes are dominated by changes in tropical as opposed to mid-high latitude precipitation. The increases in the water cycle strength, are consistent in sign, but larger than in a 1% greenhouse gas run of the HadGEM3 climate model. In the model a shift of the precipitation/evaporation cells to higher temperatures is more evident, due to the much stronger global warming signal. The observed changes in freshwater fluxes appear to be reflected in changes in the T-S distribution of the Global Ocean. Specifically, across the diverse range of atmospheric reanalyses considered here, there was an acceleration of the hydrological cycle during 1979-2007 which led to a broadening of the ocean's salinity distribution. Finally, although the reanalyses indicate that the warm temperature tropical precipitation dominated water cycle change, ocean observations suggest that ocean processes redistributed the freshening to lower ocean temperatures.

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-01

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

PubMed

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-15

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Effect of non-equilibrium flow chemistry and surface catalysis on surface heating to AFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, David A.; Henline, William D.; Chen, Yih-Kanq

1991-01-01

The effect of nonequilibrium flow chemistry on the surface temperature distribution over the forebody heat shield on the Aeroassisted Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle was investigated using a reacting boundary-layer code. Computations were performed by using boundary-layer-edge properties determined from global iterations between the boundary-layer code and flow field solutions from a viscous shock layer (VSL) and a full Navier-Stokes solution. Surface temperature distribution over the AFE heat shield was calculated for two flight conditions during a nominal AFE trajectory. This study indicates that the surface temperature distribution is sensitive to the nonequilibrium chemistry in the shock layer. Heating distributions over the AFE forebody calculated using nonequilibrium edge properties were similar to values calculated using the VSL program.

Radiative forcing and climate response due to the presence of black carbon in cloud droplets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Hua; Li, Jiangnan; Jing, Xianwen; Lu, Peng

2013-05-01

Optical properties of clouds containing black carbon (BC) particles in their water droplets are calculated by using the Maxwell Garnett mixing rule and Mie theory. The obtained cloud optical properties were then applied to an interactive system by coupling an aerosol model with a General Circulation Model. This system is used to investigate the radiative forcing and the equilibrium climate response due to BC in cloud droplets. The simulated global annual mean radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere due to the BC in cloud droplets is found to be 0.086 W m-2. Positive radiative forcing can be seen in Africa, South America, East and South Asia, and West Europe, with a maximum value of 1.5 W m-2 being observed in these regions. The enhanced cloud absorption is shown to increase the global annual mean values of solar heating rate, water vapor, and temperature, but to decrease the global annual mean cloud fraction. Finally, the global annual mean surface temperature is shown to increase by +0.08 K. The local maximum changes are found to be as low as -1.5 K and as high as +0.6 K. We show there has been a significant difference in surface temperature change in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere (+0.19 K and -0.04 K, respectively). Our results show that this interhemispheric asymmetry in surface temperature change could cause a corresponding change in atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. It is also found that the northern trade winds are enhanced in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This results in northerly surface wind anomalies which cross the equator to converge with the enhanced southern trade winds in the tropics of Southern Hemisphere. This is shown to lead to an increase (a decrease) of vertical ascending motion and precipitation on the south (north) side of the equator, which could induce a southward shift in the tropical rainfall maximum related to the ITCZ.

Radiative forcing and climate response due to the presence of black carbon in cloud droplets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Zhang, H.; Li, J.; Jing, X.; Lu, P.

2013-05-01

Optical properties of clouds containing black carbon (BC) particles in their water droplets are calculated by using the Maxwell Garnett mixing rule and Mie theory. The obtained cloud optical properties were then applied to an interactive system by coupling an aerosol model with a General Circulation Model. This system is used to investigate the radiative forcing and the equilibrium climate response due to BC in cloud droplets. The simulated global annual mean radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere due to the BC in cloud droplets is found to be 0.086 W m-2. Positive radiative forcing can be seen in Africa, South America, East and South Asia and West Europe, with a maximum value of 1.5 W m-2 being observed in these regions. The enhanced cloud absorption is shown to increase the global annual mean values of solar heating rate, water vapor and temperature, but to decrease the global annual mean cloud fraction. Finally, the global annual mean surface temperature is shown to increase by +0.08 K. The local maximum changes are found to be as low as -1.5 K and as high as +0.6 K. We show there has been a significant difference in surface temperature change in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere (+0.19 K and -0.04 K, respectively). Our results show that this interhemispheric asymmetry in surface temperature change could cause a corresponding change in atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. It is also found that the northern trade winds are enhanced in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This results in northerly surface wind anomalies which cross the equator to converge with the enhanced southern trade winds in the tropics of Southern Hemisphere. This is shown to lead to an increase (a decrease) of vertical ascending motion and precipitation on the south (north) side of the equator, which could induce a southward shift in the tropical rainfall maximum related to the ITCZ.

Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

PubMed

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A; Hegewisch, Katherine C

2018-01-09

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the earth's climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y.

1982-01-01

Land-surface evapotranspiration is shown to strongly influence global fields of rainfall, temperature and motion by calculations using a numerical model of the atmosphere, confirming the general belief in the importance of evapotranspiration-producing surface vegetation for the earth's climate. The current version of the Goddard Laboratory atmospheric general circulation model is used in the present experiment, in which conservation equations for mass, momentum, moisture and energy are expressed in finite-difference form for a spherical grid to calculate (1) surface pressure field evolution, and (2) the wind, temperature, and water vapor fields at nine levels between the surface and a 20 km height.

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-10-06

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

Surface Emissivity Retrieved with Satellite Ultraspectral IR Measurements for Monitoring Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu; Smith, William L.; Schluessel, Peter

2009-01-01

Surface and atmospheric thermodynamic parameters retrieved with advanced ultraspectral remote sensors aboard Earth observing satellites are critical to general atmospheric and Earth science research, climate monitoring, and weather prediction. Ultraspectral resolution infrared radiance obtained from nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud information. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity retrieved from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements under "clear-sky" conditions. Fast radiative transfer models, applied to the cloud-free (or clouded) atmosphere, are used for atmospheric profile and surface parameter (or cloud parameter) retrieval. The inversion scheme, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral infrared sounders, has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface (or cloud microphysical) parameters. Rapidly produced surface emissivity is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted atmospheric and surface parameters. Surface emissivity and surface skin temperature from the current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information on the Earth s ecosystem and land surface type properties, which can be utilized as part of long-term monitoring for the Earth s environment and global climate change.

Multi-Decadal Global Cooling and Unprecedented Ozone Loss Following a Regional Nuclear Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, M. J.; Toon, O. B.; Lee-Taylor, J. M.; Robock, A.

2014-12-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea-ice and land models (Mills et al., 2014). A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15-kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon. This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)), we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric black carbon, compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies (figure panel a). Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years (figure panel c). We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30-80% over Mid-Latitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of the more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today. Mills, M. J., O. B. Toon, J. Lee-Taylor, and A. Robock (2014), Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict, Earth's Future, 2(4), 161-176, doi:10.1002/2013EF000205.

Communication: Rigorous quantum dynamics of O + O{sub 2} exchange reactions on an ab initio potential energy surface substantiate the negative temperature dependence of rate coefficients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yaqin; Sun, Zhigang, E-mail: zsun@dicp.ac.cn, E-mail: dawesr@mst.edu, E-mail: hguo@unm.edu; Center for Advanced Chemical Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei 230026

2014-08-28

The kinetics and dynamics of several O + O{sub 2} isotope exchange reactions have been investigated on a recently determined accurate global O{sub 3} potential energy surface using a time-dependent wave packet method. The agreement between calculated and measured rate coefficients is significantly improved over previous work. More importantly, the experimentally observed negative temperature dependence of the rate coefficients is for the first time rigorously reproduced theoretically. This negative temperature dependence can be attributed to the absence in the new potential energy surface of a submerged “reef” structure, which was present in all previous potential energy surfaces. In addition, contributionsmore » of rotational excited states of the diatomic reactant further accentuate the negative temperature dependence.« less

Transient Climate Effects of Large Impacts on Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, Kevin J.; Korycansky, Donald; Nixon, Conor A.

2013-01-01

Titan's thick atmosphere and volatile-rich surface cause it to respond to big impacts in a somewhat Earth-like manner. Here we construct a simple globally-averaged model that tracks the flow of energy through the environment in the weeks, years, and millenia after a big comet strikes Titan. The model Titan is endowed with 1.4 bars of N2 and 0.07 bars of CH4, methane lakes, a water ice crust, and enough methane underground to saturate the regolith to the surface. We find that a nominal Menrva impact is big enough to raise the surface temperature by approx. 80 K and to double the amount of methane in the atmosphere. The extra methane drizzles out of the atmosphere over hundreds of years. An upper-limit Menrva is just big enough to raise the surface to water's melting point. The putative Hotei impact (a possible 800-1200 km diameter basin, Soderblom et al., 2009) is big enough to raise the surface temperature to 350-400 K. Water rain must fall and global meltwaters might range between 50 m to more than a kilometer deep, depending on the details. Global meltwater oceans do not last more than a few decades or centuries at most, but are interesting to consider given Titan's organic wealth. Significant near-surface clathrate formation is possible as Titan cools but faces major kinetic barriers.

THE ROLE OF THE NAO IN NEW ENGLAND'S CLIMATE

EPA Science Inventory

We are currently in a period of rapid climate change. The global surface temperature is rising with the greatest warming during the 20th century occurring over land masses in the Northern Hemisphere during winter. Stratospheric temperatures have cooled, which is another predicted...

Bridging the Global Precipitation and Soil Moisture Active Passive Missions: Variability of Microwave Surface Emissivity from In situ and Remote Sensing Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Kirstetter, P.; Hong, Y.; Turk, J.

2016-12-01

The overland precipitation retrievals from satellite passive microwave (PMW) sensors such as the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) microwave imager (GMI) are impacted by the land surface emissivity. The estimation of PMW emissivity faces challenges because it is highly variable under the influence of surface properties such as soil moisture, surface roughness and vegetation. This study proposes an improved quantitative understanding of the relationship between the emissivity and surface parameters. Surface parameter information is obtained through (i) in-situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network and (ii) satellite measurements from the Soil Moisture Active and Passive mission (SMAP) which provides global scale soil moisture estimates. The variation of emissivity is quantified with soil moisture, surface temperature and vegetation at various frequencies/polarization and over different types of land surfaces to sheds light into the processes governing the emission of the land. This analysis is used to estimate the emissivity under rainy conditions. The framework built with in-situ measurements serves as a benchmark for satellite-based analyses, which paves a way toward global scale emissivity estimates using SMAP.

Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

2009-01-01

 Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

The Polar Regions and Martian Climate: Studies with a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. J.; Richardson, M. I.; Smith, M. D.

2003-01-01

Much of the interest in the polar regions centers on the fact that they likely contain the best record of Martian climate change on time scales from years to eons. This expectation is based upon the observed occurrence of weathering product deposits and volatile reservoirs that are coupled to the climate. Interpretation and understanding of these records requires understanding of the mechanisms that involve the exchange of dust, water, and carbon dioxide between the surface and atmosphere, and the atmospheric redistribution of these species. We will summarize our use of the GFDL Mars general circulation model (MGCM), to exploration aspects of the interaction between the global climate and the polar regions. For example, our studies have shown that while the northern polar cap is the dominant seasonal source for water, it can act as a net annual source or sink for water, depending upon the cap temperatures and the bulk humidity of the atmosphere. This behavior regulates the annual and global average humidity of the atmosphere, as the cap acts as a sink if the atmosphere is too wet and a source if it is too dry. We will then focus our presentation on the ability of the MGCM to simulate the observed diurnal variations of surface temperature. We are particularly interested in assessing the influence of dust aerosol and water ice clouds on simulated surface temperature and the comparison with observations. Surface thermal inertia and albedo are critical boundary inputs for MGCM simulations. Thermal inertia is also of intrinsic interest as it may be related to properties of the surface such as particle size and surface character.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Mursula, Kalevi; Tsai, Victor C.; Perkins, David M.

2011-11-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically-significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction.

The Impact of Sea Ice Concentration Accuracies on Climate Model Simulations with the GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Rind, David; Healy, Richard J.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.

2017-12-01

Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are consistently in good agreement with values of ICS inferred from global energy budget constraints. This suggests that the current generation of coupled climate models are not overly sensitive. However, since global energy budget observations do not constrain ECS, it is less certain whether model ECS values are realistic.

Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, Roy W.; Christy, John R.

1990-01-01

Passive microwave radiometry from satellites provides more precise atmospheric temperature information than that obtained from the relatively sparse distribution of thermometers over the earth's surface. Accurate global atmospheric temperature estimates are needed for detection of possible greenhouse warming, evaluation of computer models of climate change, and for understanding important factors in the climate system. Analysis of the first 10 years (1979 to 1988) of satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperature changes reveals a monthly precision of 0.01 C, large temperature variability on time scales from weeks to several years, but no obvious trend for the 10-year period. The warmest years, in descending order, were 1987, 1988, 1983, and 1980. The years 1984, 1985, and 1986 were the coolest.

Global Warming on Triton

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

A Revised Thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM Version 3.4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D. L.; James, B. F.

1996-01-01

This report describes the newly-revised model thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM, Version 3.4). It also provides descriptions of other changes made to the program since publication of the programmer's guide for Mars-GRAM Version 3.34. The original Mars-GRAM model thermosphere was based on the global-mean model of Stewart. The revised thermosphere is based largely on parameterizations derived from output data from the three-dimensional Mars Thermospheric Global Circulation Model (MTGCM). The new thermospheric model includes revised dependence on the 10.7 cm solar flux for the global means of exospheric temperature, temperature of the base of the thermosphere, and scale height for the thermospheric temperature variations, as well as revised dependence on orbital position for global mean height of the base of the thermosphere. Other features of the new thermospheric model are: (1) realistic variations of temperature and density with latitude and time of day, (2) more realistic wind magnitudes, based on improved estimates of horizontal pressure gradients, and (3) allowance for user-input adjustments to the model values for mean exospheric temperature and for height and temperature at the base of the thermosphere. Other new features of Mars-GRAM 3.4 include: (1) allowance for user-input values of climatic adjustment factors for temperature profiles from the surface to 75 km, and (2) a revised method for computing the sub-solar longitude position in the 'ORBIT' subroutine.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng

Solar reflective “cool roofs” absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofsmore » in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (0.0021 ±0.026 K). This counters past research suggesting that cool roofs can reduce, or even increase global mean temperatures. Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.« less

Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Fanwei; Collatz, George James; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2013-01-01

Satellite observations of surface reflected solar radiation contain informationabout variability in the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Understanding thecauses of variability is important for models that use these data to drive land surface fluxesor for benchmarking prognostic vegetation models. Here we evaluated the interannualvariability in the new 30.5-year long global satellite-derived surface reflectance index data,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index(GIMMS NDVI3g). Pearsons correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression analyseswere applied to quantify the NDVI interannual variability driven by climate anomalies, andto evaluate the effects of potential interference (snow, aerosols and clouds) on the NDVIsignal. We found ecologically plausible strong controls on NDVI variability by antecedent precipitation and current monthly temperature with distinct spatial patterns. Precipitation correlations were strongest for temperate to tropical water limited herbaceous systemswhere in some regions and seasons 40 of the NDVI variance could be explained byprecipitation anomalies. Temperature correlations were strongest in northern mid- to-high-latitudes in the spring and early summer where up to 70 of the NDVI variance was explained by temperature anomalies. We find that, in western and central North America,winter-spring precipitation determines early summer growth while more recent precipitation controls NDVI variability in late summer. In contrast, current or prior wetseason precipitation anomalies were correlated with all months of NDVI in sub-tropical herbaceous vegetation. Snow, aerosols and clouds as well as unexplained phenomena still account for part of the NDVI variance despite corrections. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that GIMMS NDVI3g represents real responses of vegetation to climate variability that are useful for global models.

Land-surface influences on weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, F.; Mintz, Y.

1984-01-01

Land-surface influences on weather and climate are reviewed. The interrelationship of vegetation, evapotranspiration, atmospheric circulation, and climate is discussed. Global precipitation, soil moisture, the seasonal water cycle, heat transfer, and atmospheric temperature are among the parameters considered in the context of a general biosphere model.

A more productive, but different, ocean after mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, Jasmin G.; Stock, Charles A.; Dunne, John P.

2015-11-01

Reversibility studies suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after mitigation, raising the question of whether a similar lag is likely for marine net primary production (NPP). Here we assess NPP reversibility with a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcings are applied out to 2100 and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon-climate Earth System Model. In contrast to the temperature lag, we find a rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an overshoot to values above contemporary means. The enhanced NPP arises from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and continued warming in subsurface waters, which weakens upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nitrate. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as persistent silicate depletion results in increased prevalence of large, non-diatom phytoplankton.

Surface Hydrology in Global River Basins in the Off-Line Land-Surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Yang, Runhua; Houser, Paul R.

1998-01-01

Land surface hydrology for the Off-line Land-surface GEOS Analysis (OLGA) system and Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) Data Assimilation System (DAS) has been examined using a river routing model. The GEOS-1 DAS land-surface parameterization is very simple, using an energy balance prediction of surface temperature and prescribed soil water. OLGA uses near-surface atmospheric data from the GEOS-1 DAS to drive a more comprehensive parameterization of the land-surface physics. The two global systems are evaluated using a global river routing model. The river routing model uses climatologic surface runoff from each system to simulate the river discharge from global river basins, which can be compared to climatologic river discharge. Due to the soil hydrology, the OLGA system shows a general improvement in the simulation of river discharge compared to the GEOS-1 DAS. Snowmelt processes included in OLGA also have a positive effect on the annual cycle of river discharge and source runoff. Preliminary tests of a coupled land-atmosphere model indicate improvements to the hydrologic cycle compared to the uncoupled system. The river routing model has provided a useful tool in the evaluation of the GCM hydrologic cycle, and has helped quantify the influence of the more advanced land surface model.

Decadal slowdown in global air temperature rise triggered by variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, Matthew H.

2015-04-01

Various explanations have been proposed for the recent slowdown in global surface air temperature (SAT) rise, either involving enhanced ocean heat uptake or reduced radiation reaching Earth's surface. Among the mechanisms postulated involving enhanced ocean heat uptake, past work has argued for both a Pacific and Atlantic origin, with additional contributions from the Southern Ocean. Here we examine the mechanisms driving 'hiatus' periods originating out of the Atlantic Ocean. We show that while Atlantic-driven hiatuses are entirely plausible and consistent with known climate feedbacks associated with variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the present climate state is configured to enhance global-average SAT, not reduce it. We show that Atlantic hiatuses are instead characterised by anomalously cool fresh oceanic conditions in the North Atlantic, with the atmosphere advecting the cool temperature signature zonally. Compared to the 1980s and 1990s, however, the mean climate since 2001 has been characterised by a warm saline North Atlantic, suggesting the AMOC cannot be implicated as a direct driver of the current hiatus. We further discuss the impacts of a warm tropical Atlantic on the unprecedented trade wind acceleration in the Pacific Ocean, and propose that this is the main way that the Atlantic has contributed to the present "false pause" in global warming.

Coupled Climate Model Simulations to Bracket the Impacts of Increasing Asian Aerosols Emissions and Aggressive Future Clean Air Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Zhang, Y.; Sun, S.; Olsen, S.; Dean, S.; Bleck, R.; Chylek, P.; Lohmann, U.

2007-12-01

We report ensemble simulations of the climatic impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols (sulfate, organic and black carbon), which bracket two policy scenarios: increased emissions over China and India by a factor of three over current levels and a global reduction of aerosols by a factor of ten, using the NCAR-CCSM3 and NASA- GISS coupled ocean atmosphere models. Tripling the anthropogenic aerosols over China and India has a small cooling effect (about -0.12°C) on the global mean surface air temperature with a slight reduction in global mean precipitation by ~ -0.8%. On the other hand, global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols by a factor of ten would warm the global surface temperatures by 0.4 °C - 0.8 °C in less than 10 years after the reduction takes place as well as an increase in global precipitation by 3.0% - 3.3%. Comparisons of NCAR and NASA model simulations also suggest that the indirect effects of aerosols are about 1-2 times the direct effects of aerosols. Tripling Asian anthropogenic aerosols results in regional cooling and a reduction in precipitation primarily in Asia, with cooling (warming) also noted over the high latitudes of Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Warming and increase in precipitation in the case of global reduction of aerosols are concentrated mainly over polluted land areas in both hemispheres. Tropical regions experience large changes in precipitation in both scenarios. We provide new insights into the climate model sensitivities of global mean temperatures and rainfall to aerosol forcing. Our results underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas accumulation rates as the world reduces air pollution to improve human health and that potential increased Asian pollution, offsets only a small fraction of the warming by greenhouse gases.

An Analysis of Inter-annual Variability and Uncertainty of Continental Surface Heat Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S. Y.; Deng, Y.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

The inter-annual variability and the corresponding uncertainty of land surface heat fluxes during the first decade of the 21st century are re-evaluated at continental scale based on the heat fluxes estimated by the maximum entropy production (MEP) model. The MEP model predicted heat fluxes are constrained by surface radiation fluxes, automatically satisfy surface energy balance, and are independent of temperature/moisture gradient, wind speed, and roughness lengths. The surface radiation fluxes and temperature data from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and the surface specific humidity data from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications were used to reproduce the global surface heat fluxes with land-cover data from the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS). Our analysis shows that the annual means of continental latent heat fluxes have increasing trends associated with increasing trends in surface net radiative fluxes. The sensible heat fluxes also have increasing trends over most continents except for South America. Ground heat fluxes have little trends. The continental-scale analysis of the MEP fluxes are compared with other existing global surface fluxes data products and the implications of the results for inter-annual to decadal variability of regional surface energy budget are discussed.

A quasi-global approach to improve day-time satellite surface soil moisture anomalies through land surface temperature input

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Passive microwave observations from various space borne sensors have been linked to soil moisture of the Earth’s surface layer. The new generation passive microwave sensors are dedicated to retrieving this variable and make observations in the single, theoretically optimal L-band frequency (1-2 GHz)...

MEaSUREs Land Surface Temperature from GOES Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinker, Rachel T.; Chen, Wen; Ma, Yingtao; Islam, Tanvir; Borbas, Eva; Hain, Chris; Hulley, Glynn; Hook, Simon

2017-04-01

Information on Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be generated from observations made from satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) such as MODIS and ASTER and by sensors in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) such as GOES. Under a project titled: "A Unified and Coherent Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Earth System Data Record for Earth Science" led by Jet Propulsion Laboratory, an effort is underway to develop long term consistent information from both such systems. In this presentation we will describe an effort to derive LST information from GOES satellites. Results will be presented from two approaches: 1) based on regression developed from a wide range of simulations using MODTRAN, SeeBor Version 5.0 global atmospheric profiles and the CAMEL (Combined ASTER and MODIS Emissivity for Land) product based on the standard University of Wisconsin 5 km emissivity values (UWIREMIS) and the ASTER Global Emissivity Database (GED) product; 2) RTTOV radiative transfer model driven with MERRA-2 reanalysis fields. We will present results of evaluation of these two methods against various products, such as MOD11, and ground observations for the five year period of (2004-2008).

The Effect of Bond Albedo on Venus' Atmospheric and Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, M. A.; Limaye, S. S.; Grinspoon, D. H.; Way, M.

2017-12-01

In spite of Venus' high planetary albedo, sufficient solar energy reaches the surface to drive a powerful greenhouse effect. The surface temperature is three times higher than it would be without an atmosphere. However, the details of the energy balance within Venus' atmosphere are poorly understood. Half of the solar energy absorbed within the clouds, where most of the solar energy is absorbed, is due to an unknown agent. One of the challenges of modeling Venus' atmosphere has been to account for all the sources of opacity sufficient to generate a globally averaged surface temperature of 735 K, when only 2% of the incoming solar energy is deposited at the surface. The wavelength and spherically integrated albedo, or Bond albedo, has typically been cited as between 0.7 and 0.82 (Colin 1983). Yet, recent photometry of Venus at extended phase angles between 2 and 179° indicate a Bond albedo of 0.90 (Mallama et al., 2006). The authors note an increase in cloud top brightness at phase angles < 2°, which effectively increases the spherically integrated albedo. They suggest that forward scattering by the H2SO4/H2O aerosols of the upper cloud is responsible for Venus' high albedo at very low phase angles. The present work investigates the implications of such a high albedo for understanding and modeling the energy balance of Venus' atmosphere. Using the successful 1D radiative transfer model SimVenus that incorporates the opacity due to 9 major gases in Venus' atmosphere, as well as multiple scattering calculations of radiation within the clouds, the sensitivity of surface temperature was studied as a function of Bond albedo. Results of these model calculations are shown in Fig. 1. Figure 1a (left). Venus' atmospheric temperature profile for different values of Bond albedo. The structure and radiative effects of the clouds are fixed. Figure 1b (right). Venus surface temperature as Bond Albedo changes. Radiative-convective equilibrium models predict the correct globally averaged surface temperature at a=0.81. Calculations here show that a Bond albedo of a=0.9 would yield a surface temperature of 666.4 K, about 70 K too low, unless there is additional thermal absorption within the atmosphere that is not understood. Colin, L.,, Venus, University of Arizona Press, Tucson, 1983, pp 10-26. Mallama, A., et al., 2006. Icarus. 182, 10-22.

Impacts of Soil-aquifer Heat and Water Fluxes on Simulated Global Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krakauer, N.Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, B. I.

2013-01-01

Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer-soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer-soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil-aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of >1K in the Arctic. The soil-aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and in landsurface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on seasonal to annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

Towards a new paleotemperature proxy from reef coral occurrences.

PubMed

Lauchstedt, Andreas; Pandolfi, John M; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2017-09-05

Global mean temperature is thought to have exceeded that of today during the last interglacial episode (LIG, ~ 125,000 yrs b.p.) but robust paleoclimate data are still rare in low latitudes. Occurrence data of tropical reef corals may provide new proxies of low latitude sea-surface temperatures. Using modern reef coral distributions we developed a geographically explicit model of sea surface temperatures. Applying this model to coral occurrence data of the LIG provides a latitudinal U-shaped pattern of temperature anomalies with cooler than modern temperatures around the equator and warmer subtropical climes. Our results agree with previously published estimates of LIG temperatures and suggest a poleward broadening of the habitable zone for reef corals during the LIG.

Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

2016-01-01

The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

PubMed

Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

2016-09-20

Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.

High Resolution Land Surface Modeling with the next generation Land Data Assimilation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S. V.; Eylander, J.; Peters-Lidard, C.

2005-12-01

Knowledge of land surface processes is important to many real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management, and flood predication. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has provided the USDA and other customers global soil moisture and temperature data for the past 30 years using the agrometeorological data assimilation model (now called AGRMET), merging atmospheric data. Further, accurate initialization of land surface conditions has been shown to greatly influence and improve weather forecast model and seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. The AFWA AGRMET model exploits real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model and satellite data to generate global estimates of soil moisture, soil temperature and other land surface states at 48km spatial resolution. However, to truly address the land surface initialization and climate prediction problem, and to mitigate the errors introduced by the differences in spatial scales of models, representations of land surface conditions need to be developed at the same fine scales such as that of cloud resolving models. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has developed an offline land data assimilation system known as the Land Information System (LIS) capable of modeling land atmosphere interactions at spatial resolutions as fine as 1km. LIS provides a software architecture that integrates the use of the state of the art land surface models, data assimilation techniques, and high performance computing and data management tools. LIS also employs many high resolution surface parameters such as the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS)-era products. In this study we describe the development of a next generation high resolution land surface modeling and data assimilation system, combining the capabilities of LIS and AGRMET. We investigate the influence of high resolution land surface data and observations on the land surface conditions by comparing with the operational AGRMET outputs.

A thermal-based remote sensing modeling system for estimating daily evapotranspiration from field to global scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Thermal-infrared (TIR) remote sensing of land surface temperature (LST) provides valuable information for quantifying root-zone water availability, evapotranspiration (ET) and crop condition as well as providing useful information for constraining prognostic land surface models. This presentation d...

Polar ocean stratification in a cold climate.

PubMed

Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Haug, Gerald H

2004-03-04

The low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. As a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. In the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier. However, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates. Here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when Northern Hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late Pliocene epoch. We propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. The shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling.

Temperature-Correlated Changes in Phytoplankton Community Structure Are Restricted to Polar Waters.

PubMed

Ward, Ben A

2015-01-01

Globally distributed observations of size-fractionated chlorophyll a and temperature were used to incorporate temperature dependence into an existing semi-empirical model of phytoplankton community size structure. The additional temperature-dependent term significantly increased the model's ability to both reproduce and predict observations of chlorophyll a size-fractionation at temperatures below 2°C. The most notable improvements were in the smallest (picoplankton) size-class, for which overall model fit was more than doubled, and predictive skill was increased by approximately 40%. The model was subsequently applied to generate global maps for three phytoplankton size classes, on the basis of satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature. Polar waters were associated with marked decline in the chlorophyll a biomass of the smallest cells, relative to lower latitude waters of equivalent total chlorophyll a. In the same regions a complementary increase was seen in the chlorophyll a biomass of larger size classes. These findings suggest that a warming and stratifying ocean will see a poleward expansion of the habitat range of the smallest phytoplankton, with the possible displacement of some larger groups that currently dominate. There was no evidence of a strong temperature dependence in tropical or sub-tropical regions, suggesting that future direct temperature effects on community structure at lower latitudes may be small.

Global Clear-Sky Surface Skin Temperature from Multiple Satellites Using a Single-Channel Algorithm with Angular Anisotropy Corrections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scarino, Benjamin R.; Minnis, Patrick; Chee, Thad; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Yost, Christopher R.; Palikonda, Rabindra

2017-01-01

Surface skin temperature (T(sub s)) is an important parameter for characterizing the energy exchange at the ground/water-atmosphere interface. The Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) employs a single-channel thermal-infrared (TIR) method to retrieve T(sub s) over clear-sky land and ocean surfaces from data taken by geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite imagers. GEO satellites can provide somewhat continuous estimates of T(sub s) over the diurnal cycle in non-polar regions, while polar T(sub s) retrievals from LEO imagers, such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), can complement the GEO measurements. The combined global coverage of remotely sensed T(sub s), along with accompanying cloud and surface radiation parameters, produced in near-realtime and from historical satellite data, should be beneficial for both weather and climate applications. For example, near-realtime hourly T(sub s) observations can be assimilated in high-temporal-resolution numerical weather prediction models and historical observations can be used for validation or assimilation of climate models. Key drawbacks to the utility of TIR-derived T(sub s) data include the limitation to clear-sky conditions, the reliance on a particular set of analyses/reanalyses necessary for atmospheric corrections, and the dependence on viewing and illumination angles. Therefore, T(sub s) validation with established references is essential, as is proper evaluation of T(sub s) sensitivity to atmospheric correction source. This article presents improvements on the NASA Langley GEO satellite and AVHRR TIR-based T(sub s) product that is derived using a single-channel technique. The resulting clear-sky skin temperature values are validated with surface references and independent satellite products. Furthermore, an empirically adjusted theoretical model of satellite land surface temperature (LST) angular anisotropy is tested to improve satellite LST retrievals. Application of the anisotropic correction yields reduced mean bias and improved precision of GOES-13 LST relative to independent Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MYD11_L2) LST and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program ground station measurements. It also significantly reduces inter-satellite differences between LSTs retrieved simultaneously from two different imagers. The implementation of these universal corrections into the SatCORPS product can yield significant improvement in near-global-scale, near-realtime, satellite-based LST measurements. The immediate availability and broad coverage of these skin temperature observations should prove valuable to modelers and climate researchers looking for improved forecasts and better understanding of the global climate model.

Analytical Retrieval of Global Land Surface Emissivity Maps at AMSR-E passive microwave frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norouzi, H.; Temimi, M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2009-12-01

Land emissivity is a crucial boundary condition in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling. Land emissivity is also a key indicator of land surface and subsurface properties. The objective of this study, supported by NOAA-NESDIS, is to develop global land emissivity maps using AMSR-E passive microwave measurements along with several ancillary data. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) database has been used to obtain several inputs for the proposed approach such as land surface temperature, cloud mask and atmosphere profile. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) has been used to estimate upwelling and downwelling atmospheric contributions. Although it is well known that correction of the atmospheric effect on brightness temperature is required at higher frequencies (over 19 GHz), our preliminary results have shown that a correction at 10.7 GHz is also necessary over specific areas. The proposed approach is based on three main steps. First, all necessary data have been collected and processed. Second, a global cloud free composite of AMSR-E data and corresponding ancillary images is created. Finally, monthly composting of emissivity maps has been performed. AMSR-E frequencies at 6.9, 10.7, 18.7, 36.5 and 89.0 GHz have been used to retrieve the emissivity. Water vapor information obtained from ISCCP (TOVS data) was used to calculate upwelling, downwelling temperatures and atmospheric transmission in order to assess the consistency of those derived from the CRTM model. The frequent land surface temperature (LST) determination (8 times a day) in the ISCCP database has allowed us to assess the diurnal cycle effect on emissivity retrieval. Differences in magnitude and phase between thermal temperature and low frequencies microwave brightness temperature have been noticed. These differences seem to vary in space and time. They also depend on soil texture and thermal inertia. The proposed methodology accounts for these factors and resultant differences in phase and magnitude between LST and microwave brightness temperature. Additional factors such as topography and vegetation cover are under investigation. In addition, the potential of extrapolating the obtained land emissivity maps to different window and sounding channels has been also investigated in this study. The extrapolation of obtained emissivities to different incident angles is also under investigation. Land emissivity maps have been developed at different AMSR-E frequencies. Obtained product has been validated and compared to global land use distribution. Moreover, global soil moisture AMSR-E product maps have been also used to assess to the spatial distribution of the emissivity. Moreover, obtained emissivity maps seem to be consistent with landuse/land cover maps. They also agree well with land emissivity maps obtained from the ISCCP database and developed using SSM/I observations (for frequencies over 19 GHz).

Long-Term Planetary Habitability and the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushby, Andrew J.; Johnson, Martin; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Watson, Andrew J.; Claire, Mark W.

2018-05-01

The potential habitability of an exoplanet is traditionally assessed by determining if its orbit falls within the circumstellar `habitable zone' of its star, defined as the distance at which water could be liquid on the surface of a planet (Kopparapu et al., 2013). Traditionally, these limits are determined by radiative-convective climate models, which are used to predict surface temperatures at user-specified levels of greenhouse gases. This approach ignores the vital question of the (bio)geochemical plausibility of the proposed chemical abundances. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere in terms of regulating planetary temperature, with the long term concentration controlled by the balance between volcanic outgassing and the sequestration of CO2 via chemical weathering and sedimentation, as modulated by ocean chemistry, circulation and biological (microbial) productivity. We develop a model incorporating key aspects of Earth's short and long-term biogeochemical carbon cycle to explore the potential changes in the CO2 greenhouse due to variance in planet size and stellar insolation. We find that proposed changes in global topography, tectonics, and the hydrological cycle on larger planets results in proportionally greater surface temperatures for a given incident flux. For planets between 0.5 to 2 R_earth the effect of these changes results in average global surface temperature deviations of up to 20 K, which suggests that these relationships must be considered in future studies of planetary habitability.

MANTLE CONVECTION, PLATE TECTONICS, AND VOLCANISM ON HOT EXO-EARTHS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Summeren, Joost; Conrad, Clinton P.; Gaidos, Eric, E-mail: summeren@hawaii.edu

Recently discovered exoplanets on close-in orbits should have surface temperatures of hundreds to thousands of Kelvin. They are likely tidally locked and synchronously rotating around their parent stars and, if an atmosphere is absent, have surface temperature contrasts of many hundreds to thousands of Kelvin between permanent day and night sides. We investigated the effect of elevated surface temperature and strong surface temperature contrasts for Earth-mass planets on the (1) pattern of mantle convection, (2) tectonic regime, and (3) rate and distribution of partial melting, using numerical simulations of mantle convection with a composite viscous/pseudo-plastic rheology. Our simulations indicate thatmore » if a close-in rocky exoplanet lacks an atmosphere to redistribute heat, a {approx}>400 K surface temperature contrast can maintain an asymmetric degree 1 pattern of mantle convection in which the surface of the planet moves preferentially toward subduction zones on the cold night side. The planetary surface features a hemispheric dichotomy, with plate-like tectonics on the night side and a continuously evolving mobile lid on the day side with diffuse surface deformation and vigorous volcanism. If volcanic outgassing establishes an atmosphere and redistributes heat, plate tectonics is globally replaced by diffuse surface deformation and volcanism accelerates and becomes distributed more uniformly across the planetary surface.« less

Models of Solar Irradiance Variability and the Instrumental Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcus, S. L.; Ghil, M.; Ide, K.

1998-01-01

The effects of decade-to-century (Dec-Cen) variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) on global mean surface temperature Ts during the pre-Pinatubo instrumental era (1854-1991) are studied by using two different proxies for TSI and a simplified version of the IPCC climate model.

Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

PubMed

Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

2009-11-17

Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 2: Estimation of the urban bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

A methodology is presented for estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures due to the effect of the urban heat island. Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate, site-specific data to represent the local landscape, and satellite-derived data -- the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime brightness data -- to represent the urban and rural landscape. Local NDVI and DMSP values were calculated for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 3 km x 3 km area centered over the given station. Regional NDVI and DMSP values were calculated to represent a typical rural value for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude-longitude area in which the given station was located. Models for the United States were then developed for monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures using data from over 1000 stations in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and for monthly mean temperatures with data from over 1150 stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Local biases, or the differences between the model predictions using the observed NDVI and DMSP values, and the predictions using the background regional values were calculated and compared with the results of other research. The local or urban bias of U.S. temperatures, as derived from all U.S. stations (urban and rural) used in the models, averaged near 0.40 C for monthly minimum temperatures, near 0.25 C for monthly mean temperatures, and near 0.10 C for monthly maximum temperatures. The biases of monthly minimum temperatures for individual stations ranged from near -1.1 C for rural stations to 2.4 C for stations from the largest urban areas. The results of this study indicate minimal problems for global application once global NDVI and DMSP data become available.

Modelling global nitrogen export to ground and surface water from natural ecosystems: impact of N deposition, climate, and CO2 concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc; Smith, Ben; Wassen, Martin

2015-04-01

For large regions in the world strong increases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are predicted as a result of emissions from fossil fuel combustion and food production. This will cause many previously N limited ecosystems to become N saturated, leading to increased export to ground and surface water and negative impacts on the environment and human health. However, precise N export fluxes are difficult to predict. Due to its strong link to carbon, N in vegetation and soil is also determined by productivity, as affected by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, and denitrification. Furthermore, the N concentration of water delivered to streams depends strongly on local hydrological conditions. We aim to study how N delivery to ground and surface water is affected by changes in environmental factors. To this end we are developing a global dynamic modelling system that integrates representations of N cycling in vegetation and soil, and N delivery to ground and surface water. This will be achieved by coupling the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, which includes representations of N cycling, as well as croplands and pasture, to the global water balance model PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface runoff, interflow, groundwater recharge, and baseflow. This coupling will allow us to trace N across different systems and estimate the input of N into the riverine system which can be used as input for river biogeochemical models. We will present large scale estimates of N leaching and transport to ground and surface water for natural ecosystems in different biomes, based on a loose coupling of the two models. Furthermore, by means of a factorial model experiment we will explore how these fluxes are influenced by N deposition, temperature, and CO2 concentration.

Atmospheric sensitivity to land surface changes: comparing the impact of albedo, roughness, and evaporative resistance on near-surface air temperature using an idealized land model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, M. M.; Swann, A. L. S.; Bonan, G. B.

2017-12-01

Past studies have demonstrated how changes in vegetation can impact the atmosphere; however, it is often difficult to identify the exact physical pathway through which vegetation changes drive an atmospheric response. Surface properties (such as vegetation color, or height) control surface energy fluxes, which feed back on the atmosphere on both local and global scales by modifying temperatures, cloud cover, and energy gradients. Understanding how land surface properties influence energy fluxes is crucial for improving our understanding of how vegetation change - past, present, and future - impacts the atmosphere, global climate, and people. We explore the sensitivity of the atmosphere to perturbations of three land surface properties - albedo, roughness, and evaporative resistance - using an idealized land model coupled to an Earth System Model. We derive a relationship telling us how large a change in each surface property is required to drive a local 0.1 K change in 2m air temperature. Using this idealized framework, we are able to separate the influence on the atmosphere of each individual surface property. We demonstrate that the impact of each surface property on the atmosphere is spatially variable - that is, a similar change in vegetation can have different climate impacts if made in different locations. This analysis not only improves our understanding of how the land system can influence climate, but also provides us with a set of theoretical limits on the potential climate impact of arbitrary vegetation change (natural or anthropogenic).

The concurrent use of novel soil surface microclimate measurements to evaluate CO2 pulses in biocrusted interspaces in a cool desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tucker, Colin; McHugh, Theresa A.; Howell, Armin; Gill, Richard; Weber, Bettina; Belnap, Jayne; Grote, Ed; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Carbon cycling associated with biological soil crusts, which occupy interspaces between vascular plants in drylands globally, may be an important part of the coupled climate-carbon cycle of the Earth system. A major challenge to understanding CO2 fluxes in these systems is that much of the biotic and biogeochemical activity occurs in the upper few mm of the soil surface layer (i.e., the ‘mantle of fertility’), which exhibits highly dynamic and difficult to measure temperature and moisture fluctuations. Here, we report a multi-sensor approach to simultaneously measuring temperature and moisture of this biocrust surface layer (0–2 mm), and the deeper soil profile, concurrent with automated measurement of surface soil CO2effluxes. Our results illuminate robust relationships between biocrust water content and field CO2 pulses that have previously been difficult to detect and explain. All observed CO2 pulses over the measurement period corresponded to surface wetting events, including when the wetting events did not penetrate into the soil below the biocrust layer (0–2 mm). The variability of temperature and moisture of the biocrust surface layer was much greater than even in the 0–5 cm layer of the soil beneath the biocrust, or deeper in the soil profile. We therefore suggest that coupling surface measurements of biocrust moisture and temperature to automated CO2flux measurements may greatly improve our understanding of the climatic sensitivity of carbon cycling in biocrusted interspaces in our study region, and that this method may be globally relevant and applicable.

Comparison of MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Air Temperature over the Continental USA Meteorological Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Thome, Kurtis

2014-01-01

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA) and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the surface-temperature-based urban heat island's (UHIS) signature on LST amplitude over the continental USA and to make comparisons to local air temperatures. Air-temperature-based UHIs (UHIA), calculated using the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) daily air temperatures, are compared with UHIS for urban areas in different biomes during different seasons. NLCD ISA is used to define urban and rural temperatures and to stratify the sampling for LST and air temperatures. We find that the MODIS LST agrees well with observed air temperature during the nighttime, but tends to overestimate it during the daytime, especially during summer and in nonforested areas. The minimum air temperature analyses show that UHIs in forests have an average UHIA of 1 C during the summer. The UHIS, calculated from nighttime LST, has similar magnitude of 1-2 C. By contrast, the LSTs show a midday summer UHIS of 3-4 C for cities in forests, whereas the average summer UHIA calculated from maximum air temperature is close to 0 C. In addition, the LSTs and air temperatures difference between 2006 and 2011 are in agreement, albeit with different magnitude.

Mapping Daily Evapotranspiration at Field to Global Scales using Geostationary and Polar Orbiting Satellite Imagery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing of land-surface temperature (LST) provides valuable information about the sub-surface moisture status required for estimating evapotranspiration (ET) and detecting the onset and severity of drought. While empirical indices measuring anomalies in LST and vegetati...

Late Cretaceous climate simulations with different CO2 levels and subarctic gateway configurations: A model-data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niezgodzki, Igor; Knorr, Gregor; Lohmann, Gerrit; Tyszka, Jarosław; Markwick, Paul J.

2017-09-01

We investigate the impact of different CO2 levels and different subarctic gateway configurations on the surface temperatures during the latest Cretaceous using the Earth System Model COSMOS. The simulated temperatures are compared with the surface temperature reconstructions based on a recent compilation of the latest Cretaceous proxies. In our numerical experiments, the CO2 level ranges from 1 to 6 times the preindustrial (PI) CO2 level of 280 ppm. On a global scale, the most reasonable match between modeling and proxy data is obtained for the experiments with 3 to 5 × PI CO2 concentrations. However, the simulated low- (high-) latitude temperatures are too high (low) as compared to the proxy data. The moderate CO2 levels scenarios might be more realistic, if we take into account proxy data and the dead zone effect criterion. Furthermore, we test if the model-data discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic proxy-data interpretations. This is distinctly seen at high latitudes, where most proxies are biased toward summer temperatures. Additional sensitivity experiments with different ocean gateway configurations and constant CO2 level indicate only minor surface temperatures changes (< 1°C) on a global scale, with higher values (up to 8°C) on a regional scale. These findings imply that modeled and reconstructed temperature gradients are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, providing challenges for the interpretation of proxy data and/or model sensitivity. With respect to the latter, our results suggest that an assessment of greenhouse worlds is best constrained by temperatures in the midlatitudes.

The anthropogenic influence on heat and humidity in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inda Diaz, H. A.; O'Brien, T. A.; Stone, D. A.

2016-12-01

Heatwaves, and extreme temperatures in general, have a wide range of negative impacts on society, and particularly on human health. In addition to temperature, humidity plays a key role in regulating human body temperature, with higher humidities tending to reduce the effectiveness of perspiration. There is recent theoretical and observational evidence that co-occurring extreme heat and humidity can potentially have a much more dramatic impact on human health than either extreme in isolation. There is an abundance of observational evidence indicating that anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have contributed to an increase in the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes on a global scale. However, aside from purely thermodynamically-driven increases in near-surface humidity, there is a paucity of similar evidence for anthropogenic impacts on humidity. Thermodynamic scaling would suggest that air masses originating from the ocean would be associated with higher specific humidity in a warmer world, and transpiration from irrigated crops could further increase humidity in warm air masses. In order to explore the role of anthropogenic GHG forcing on the co-occurrence of temperature and humidity extremes in the Midwestern United States (US), we evaluate a large ensemble of global climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic GHG forcing. In particular, we examine differences between the probability distributions of near-surface temperature, humidity, wet-bulb temperature, and the joint distribution of temperature and humidity in this ensemble. Finally, we explore augmenting this experimental framework with additional simulations to explore the role of anthropogenic changes in the land surface, and in particular irrigated crops, on co-occurring extreme heat and humidity.

A comparison of Argo nominal surface and near-surface temperature for validation of AMSR-E SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zenghong; Chen, Xingrong; Sun, Chaohui; Wu, Xiaofen; Lu, Shaolei

2017-05-01

Satellite SST (sea surface temperature) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) is compared with in situ temperature observations from Argo profiling floats over the global oceans to evaluate the advantages of Argo NST (near-surface temperature: water temperature less than 1 m from the surface). By comparing Argo nominal surface temperature ( 5 m) with its NST, a diurnal cycle caused by daytime warming and nighttime cooling was found, along with a maximum warming of 0.08±0.36°C during 14:00-15:00 local time. Further comparisons between Argo 5-m temperature/Argo NST and AMSR-E SST retrievals related to wind speed, columnar water vapor, and columnar cloud water indicate warming biases at low wind speed (<5 m/s) and columnar water vapor >28 mm during daytime. The warming tendency is more remarkable for AMSR-E SST/Argo 5-m temperature compared with AMSR-E SST/Argo NST, owing to the effect of diurnal warming. This effect of diurnal warming events should be excluded before validation for microwave SST retrievals. Both AMSR-E nighttime SST/Argo 5-m temperature and nighttime SST/Argo NST show generally good agreement, independent of wind speed and columnar water vapor. From our analysis, Argo NST data demonstrated their advantages for validation of satellite-retrieved SST.

Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Bell, T. G.; Yang, M.

2014-11-01

We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a-1. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 μmol m-2 day-1. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic.

A study of surface temperatures, clouds and net radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dhuria, Harbans

1994-01-01

The study is continuing and it is focused on examining seasonal relationships between climate parameters such as the surface temperatures, the net radiation and cloud types and amount on a global basis for the period February 1985 to January 1987. The study consists of an analysis of the combined Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program (ISCCP) products. The main emphasis is on obtaining the information about the interactions and relationships of Earth Radiation Budget parameters, cloud and temperature information. The purpose is to gain additional qualitative and quantitative insight into the cloud climate relationship.

Remote Sensing of Salinity: The Dielectric Constant of Sea Water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeVine, David M.; Lang, R.; Utku, C.; Tarkocin, Y.

2011-01-01

Global monitoring of sea surface salinity from space requires an accurate model for the dielectric constant of sea water as a function of salinity and temperature to characterize the emissivity of the surface. Measurements are being made at 1.413 GHz, the center frequency of the Aquarius radiometers, using a resonant cavity and the perturbation method. The cavity is operated in a transmission mode and immersed in a liquid bath to control temperature. Multiple measurements are made at each temperature and salinity. Error budgets indicate a relative accuracy for both real and imaginary parts of the dielectric constant of about 1%.

High cloud variations with surface temperature from 2002 to 2015: Contributions to atmospheric radiative cooling rate and precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Run; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Su, Hui; Gu, Yu; Zhao, Bin; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Liu, Shaw Chen

2017-05-01

The global mean precipitation is largely constrained by atmospheric radiative cooling rates (Qr), which are sensitive to changes in high cloud fraction. We investigate variations of high cloud fraction with surface temperature (Ts) from July 2002 to June 2015 and compute their radiative effects on Qr using the Fu-Liou-Gu plane-parallel radiation model. We find that the tropical mean (30°S-30°N) high cloud fraction decreases with increasing Ts at a rate of about -1.0 ± 0.34% K-1 from 2002 to 2015, which leads to an enhanced atmospheric cooling around 0.86 W m-2 K-1. On the other hand, the northern midlatitudes (30°N-60°N) high cloud fraction increases with surface warming at a rate of 1.85 ± 0.65% K-1 and the near-global mean (60°S-60°N) high cloud fraction shows a statistically insignificant decreasing trend with increasing Ts over the analysis period. Dividing high clouds into cirrus, cirrostratus, and deep convective clouds, we find that cirrus cloud fraction increases with surface warming at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.11% K-1 (0.01 ± 0.17% K-1) for the near-global mean (tropical mean), while cirrostratus and deep convective clouds decrease with surface warming at a rate of -0.02 ± 0.18% K-1 and -0.33 ± 0.18% K-1 for the near-global mean and -0.64 ± 0.23% K-1 and -0.37 ± 0.13% K-1 for the tropical mean, respectively. High cloud fraction response to feedback to Ts accounts for approximately 1.9 ± 0.7% and 16.0 ± 6.1% of the increase in precipitation per unit surface warming over the period of 2002-2015 for the near-global mean and the tropical mean, respectively.

Lambert Reflectance Albedo And Temperature Mapping Of Thermal Emission Spectrometer Data During The Mars Global Surveyor Aerobraking Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badri, K. M.; Alqasim, A.; Altunaiji, E. S.; Edwards, C. S.; Smith, M. D.

2017-12-01

The goal of this work is to create multiple sets of maps using Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data that encompass the aerobraking phase of the Mars Global Surveyor mission. This work will serve as a proof of concept for the upcoming Emirates Mars Mission, where the Emirates Mars Infrared Spectrometer (EMRIS) will generate data acquired in a similar manner to that acquired by TES during aerobraking. To generate maps of these data on a global scale, python will be used in combination with the Spacecraft Planet Instrument Camera Matrix and Event (SPICE) toolkit to determine the geometry of the pixels on the planet surface. TES is an instrument within the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft. It is a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer developed to study the surface and atmosphere of Mars using thermal infrared emission spectroscopy. TES consists of six detectors arranged in a 2x3 array with a nominal spot size of 3 × 6 km when in its nominal mapping orbit. Over the southern hemisphere during aerobraking the footprint is significantly larger (10s of km) due to the elliptical nature of the orbit during this phase of the mission. TES aerobraking spectra were taken between Mars Year 23, Ls=180° and Mars Year 24, Ls=30°. Here we map TES footprints to the surface during MGS aerobraking, binned by solar longitude to observe differences on the surface in both temperature and Lambert albedo.

Pleistocene tropical Pacific temperature sensitivity to radiative greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyck, K. A.; Ravelo, A. C.

2011-12-01

How high will Earth's global average surface temperature ultimately rise as greenhouse gas concentrations increase in the future? One way to tackle this question is to compare contemporaneous temperature and greenhouse gas concentration data from paleoclimate records, while considering that other radiative forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in the amount and distribution of incoming solar radiation associated with changes in the Earth's orbital configuration) also contribute to surface temperature change. Since the sensitivity of surface temperature varies with location and latitude, here we choose a central location representative of the west Pacific warm pool, far from upwelling regions or surface temperature gradients in order to minimize climate feedbacks associated with high-latitude regions or oceanic dynamics. The 'steady-state' or long-term temperature change associated with greenhouse gas radiative forcing is often labeled as equilibrium (or 'Earth system') climate sensitivity to the doubling of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Climate models suggest that Earth system sensitivity does not change dramatically over times when CO2 was lower or higher than the modern atmospheric value. Thus, in our investigation of the changes in tropical SST, from the glacial to interglacial states when greenhouse gas forcing nearly doubled, we use Late Pleistocene paleoclimate records to constrain earth system sensitivity for the tropics. Here we use Mg/Ca-paleothermometry using the foraminifera G. ruber from ODP Site 871 from the past 500 kyr in the western Pacific warm pool to estimate tropical Pacific equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations to be ~4°C. This tropical SST sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing is ~1-2°C higher than that predicted by climate models of past glacial periods or future warming for the tropical Pacific. Equatorial Pacific SST sensitivity may be higher than predicted by models for a number of reasons. First, models may not be adequately representing long-term deep ocean feedbacks. Second, models may incorrectly parameterize tropical cloud (or other short-term) feedback processes. Lastly, either paleo-temperature or radiative forcing may have been incorrectly estimated (e.g. through calibration of paleoclimate evidence for temperature change). Since theory suggests that surface temperature in the high latitudes is more sensitive to radiative forcing changes than surface temperature in the tropics, the results of this study also imply that globally averaged Earth system sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations may be higher than most climate models predict.

The impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on land surface temperature in southwestern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Herbel, Ioana; Imbroane, Alexandru Mircea; Burada, Doina Cristina

2017-11-01

Land surface temperature is one of the most important parameters related to global warming. It depends mainly on soil type, discontinuous vegetation cover, or lack of precipitation. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between high LST, synoptic conditions and air masses trajectories, vegetation cover, and soil type in one of the driest region in Romania. In order to calculate the land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index, five satellite images of LANDSAT missions 5 and 7, covering a period of 26 years (1986-2011), were selected, all of them collected in the month of June. The areas with low vegetation density were derived from normalized difference vegetation index, while soil types have been extracted from Corine Land Cover database. HYSPLIT application was employed to identify the air masses origin based on their backward trajectories for each of the five study cases. Pearson, logarithmic, and quadratic correlations were used to detect the relationships between land surface temperature and observed ground temperatures, as well as between land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index. The most important findings are: strong correlation between land surface temperature derived from satellite images and maximum ground temperature recorded in a weather station located in the area, as well as between areas with land surface temperature equal to or higher than 40.0 °C and those with lack of vegetation; the sandy soils are the most prone to high land surface temperature and lack of vegetation, followed by the chernozems and brown soils; extremely severe drought events may occur in the region.

Global Monitoring RSEM System for Crop Production by Incorporating Satellite-based Photosynthesis Rates and Anomaly Data of Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.; Sakuma, H.

2014-12-01

The first author has been developing RSEM crop-monitoring system using satellite-based assessment of photosynthesis, incorporating meteorological conditions. Crop production comprises of several stages and plural mechanisms based on leaf photosynthesis, surface energy balance, and the maturing of grains after fixation of CO2, along with water exchange through soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer. Grain production in prime countries appears to be randomly perturbed regionally and globally. Weather for crop plants reflects turbulent phenomena of convective and advection flows in atmosphere and surface boundary layer. It has been difficult for scientists to simulate and forecast weather correctly for sufficiently long terms to crop harvesting. However, severely poor harvests related to continental events must originate from a consistent mechanism of abnormal energetic flow in the atmosphere through both land and oceans. It should be remembered that oceans have more than 100 times of energy storage compared to atmosphere and ocean currents represent gigantic energy flows, strongly affecting climate. Anomalies of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), globally known as El Niño, Indian Ocean dipole, and Atlantic Niño etc., affect the seasonal climate on a continental scale. The authors aim to combine monitoring and seasonal forecasting, considering such mechanisms through land-ocean biosphere transfer. The present system produces assessments for all continents, specifically monitoring agricultural fields of main crops. Historical regions of poor and good harvests are compared with distributions of SST anomalies, which are provided by NASA GSFC. Those comparisons fairly suggest that the Worst harvest in 1993 and the Best in 1994 relate to the offshore distribution of low temperature anomalies and high gaps in ocean surface temperatures. However, high-temperature anomalies supported good harvests because of sufficient solar radiation for photosynthesis, and poor harvests because of insufficient precipitation. Integrated rates of photosynthesis on prime grains with planted areas were compared with the SST anomalies in poor and good harvests years. Other factors for poor harvest such as rainfall, solar radiation in addition to the intensity of winds as a measure of pressure perturbations need to be studied.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-01-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-03-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

The CIRS Investigation on Cassini after Six Years at Saturn

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennings, Donald

2010-01-01

The CIRS investigation designed to provide: 1) infrared spectroscopy of thermal emission from atmospheres, rings, and surfaces in 10 +/- 1450 cm(exp -1) (1000 +/- 7 micron) region; 2) global mapping in atmospheres of three dimensional and temporal variation of gas composition, temperatures, dynamics, and aerosols and clouds; and 3) mapping of rings and icy satellite surfaces for composition and thermal properties. Topics include: optical and mechanical layouts, instrument description, preparation for launch, Saturn's rings in the light spectrum, Saturn brightness temperature spectrum, and views of Saturn's surface, rings, and Saturn's moons and their atmospheres.

Ice surface temperature retrieval from AVHRR, ATSR, and passive microwave satellite data: Algorithm development and application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Key, Jeff; Maslanik, James; Steffen, Konrad

1995-01-01

During the second phase project year we have made progress in the development and refinement of surface temperature retrieval algorithms and in product generation. More specifically, we have accomplished the following: (1) acquired a new advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data set for the Beaufort Sea area spanning an entire year; (2) acquired additional along-track scanning radiometer(ATSR) data for the Arctic and Antarctic now totalling over eight months; (3) refined our AVHRR Arctic and Antarctic ice surface temperature (IST) retrieval algorithm, including work specific to Greenland; (4) developed ATSR retrieval algorithms for the Arctic and Antarctic, including work specific to Greenland; (5) developed cloud masking procedures for both AVHRR and ATSR; (6) generated a two-week bi-polar global area coverage (GAC) set of composite images from which IST is being estimated; (7) investigated the effects of clouds and the atmosphere on passive microwave 'surface' temperature retrieval algorithms; and (8) generated surface temperatures for the Beaufort Sea data set, both from AVHRR and special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I).

Bracketing mid-pliocene sea surface temperature: maximum and minimum possible warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry

2004-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Mega-annums (Ma). Pollen records from land based cores and sections, although not as well dated, also show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport is the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. However, despite being a period of global warmth, there exists considerable variability within this interval. Two new SST reconstructions have been created to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene. These data represent the maximum and minimum possible warming recorded within the 3.3 to 3.0 Ma interval.

A Cloud Greenhouse Effect on Mars: Significant Climate Change in the Recent Past

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Schaeffer, James R.; Montmessin, Frank; Phillips, R J.

2012-01-01

The large variations in Mars orbit parameters are known to be significant drivers of climate change on the Red planet. The recent discovery of buried CO2 ice at the South Pole adds another dimension to climate change studies. In this paper we present results from the Ames GCM that show within the past million years it is possible that clouds from a greatly intensified Martian hydrological cycle may have produced a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise global mean surface temperatures by several tens of degrees Kelvin. It is made possible by the ability of the Martian atmosphere to transport water to high altitudes where cold clouds form, reduce the outgoing longwave radiation, and drive up surface temperatures to maintain global energy balance.

Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis.

PubMed

Varela, Rubén; Lima, Fernando P; Seabra, Rui; Meneghesso, Claudia; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho

2018-10-15

Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MODIS Global Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Every day the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measures sea surface temperature over the entire globe with high accuracy. This false-color image shows a one-month composite for May 2001. Red and yellow indicates warmer temperatures, green is an intermediate value, while blues and then purples are progressively colder values. The new MODIS sea surface temperature product will be particularly useful in studies of temperature anomalies, such as El Nino, as well as research into how air-sea interactions drive changes in weather and climate patterns. In the high resolution image, notice the amazing detail in some of the regional current patterns. For instance, notice the cold water currents that move from Antarctica northward along South America's west coast. These cold, deep waters upwell along an equatorial swath around and to the west of the Galapagos Islands. Note the warm, wide currents of the Gulf Stream moving up the United States' east coast, carrying Caribbean warmth toward Newfoundland and across the Atlantic toward Western Europe. Note the warm tongue of water extending from Africa's east coast to well south of the Cape of Good Hope. MODIS was launched in December 1999 aboard NASA's Terra satellite. For more details on this and other MODIS data products, please see NASA Unveils Spectacular Suite of New Global Data Products from MODIS. Image courtesy MODIS Ocean Group, NASA GSFC, and the University of Miami

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-01-01

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010.

PubMed

Mauck, Robert A; Dearborn, Donald C; Huntington, Charles E

2018-04-01

The salient feature of anthropogenic climate change over the last century has been the rise in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature is not used as an explanatory variable in studies of population-level response to climate change, perhaps because the signal-to-noise ratio of this gross measure makes its effect difficult to detect in any but the longest of datasets. Using a population of Leach's storm-petrels breeding in the Bay of Fundy, we tested whether local, regional, or global temperature measures are the best index of reproductive success in the face of climate change in species that travel widely between and within seasons. With a 56-year dataset, we found that annual global mean temperature (AGMT) was the single most important predictor of hatching success, more so than regional sea surface temperatures (breeding season or winter) and local air temperatures at the nesting colony. Storm-petrel reproductive success showed a quadratic response to rising temperatures, in that hatching success increased up to some critical temperature, and then declined when AGMT exceeded that temperature. The year at which AGMT began to consistently exceed that critical temperature was 1988. Importantly, in this population of known-age individuals, the impact of changing climate was greatest on inexperienced breeders: reproductive success of inexperienced birds increased more rapidly as temperatures rose and declined more rapidly after the tipping point than did reproductive success of experienced individuals. The generality of our finding that AGMT is the best predictor of reproductive success in this system may hinge on two things. First, an integrative global measure may be best for species in which individuals move across an enormous spatial range, especially within seasons. Second, the length of our dataset and our capacity to account for individual- and age-based variation in reproductive success increase our ability to detect a noisy signal. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Producing Global Science Products for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in MODAPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masuoka, Edward J.; Tilmes, Curt A.; Ye, Gang; Devine, Neal; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was launched on NASA's EOS-Terra spacecraft December 1999. With 36 spectral bands covering the visible, near wave and short wave infrared. MODIS produces over 40 global science data products, including sea surface temperature, ocean color, cloud properties, vegetation indices land surface temperature and land cover change. The MODIS Data Processing System (MODAPS) produces 400 GB/day of global MODIS science products from calibrated radiances generated in the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The science products are shipped to the EOSDIS for archiving and distribution to the public. An additional 200 GB of products are shipped each day to MODIS team members for quality assurance and validation of their products. In the sections that follow, we will describe the architecture of the MODAPS, identify processing bottlenecks encountered in scaling MODAPS from 50 GB/day backup system to a 400 GB/day production system and discuss how these were handled.

Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chassignet, E.

A broad partnership of institutions is collaborating in developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global and Atlantic ocean prediction systems using the the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). These systems will be transitioned for operational use by both the U.S. Navy at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), Stennis Space Center, MS, and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC), Monterey, CA, and by NOAA at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Washington, D.C. These systems will run efficiently on a variety of massively parallel computers and will include sophisticated data assimilation techniques for assimilation of satellite altimeter sea surface height and sea surface temperature as well as in situ temperature, salinity, and float displacement. The Partnership addresses the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) goals of three-dimensional (3D) depiction of the ocean state at fine resolution in real-time and provision of boundary conditions for coastal and regional models. An overview of the effort will be presented.

Sampling biases in datasets of historical mean air temperature over land.

PubMed

Wang, Kaicun

2014-04-10

Global mean surface air temperature (Ta) has been reported to have risen by 0.74°C over the last 100 years. However, the definition of mean Ta is still a subject of debate. The most defensible definition might be the integral of the continuous temperature measurements over a day (Td0). However, for technological and historical reasons, mean Ta over land have been taken to be the average of the daily maximum and minimum temperature measurements (Td1). All existing principal global temperature analyses over land rely heavily on Td1. Here, I make a first quantitative assessment of the bias in the use of Td1 to estimate trends of mean Ta using hourly Ta observations at 5600 globally distributed weather stations from the 1970s to 2013. I find that the use of Td1 has a negligible impact on the global mean warming rate. However, the trend of Td1 has a substantial bias at regional and local scales, with a root mean square error of over 25% at 5° × 5° grids. Therefore, caution should be taken when using mean Ta datasets based on Td1 to examine high resolution details of warming trends.

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1994-01-01

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

The timescales of global surface-ocean connectivity.

PubMed

Jönsson, Bror F; Watson, James R

2016-04-19

Planktonic communities are shaped through a balance of local evolutionary adaptation and ecological succession driven in large part by migration. The timescales over which these processes operate are still largely unresolved. Here we use Lagrangian particle tracking and network theory to quantify the timescale over which surface currents connect different regions of the global ocean. We find that the fastest path between two patches--each randomly located anywhere in the surface ocean--is, on average, less than a decade. These results suggest that marine planktonic communities may keep pace with climate change--increasing temperatures, ocean acidification and changes in stratification over decadal timescales--through the advection of resilient types.

The timescales of global surface-ocean connectivity

PubMed Central

Jönsson, Bror F.; Watson, James R.

2016-01-01

Planktonic communities are shaped through a balance of local evolutionary adaptation and ecological succession driven in large part by migration. The timescales over which these processes operate are still largely unresolved. Here we use Lagrangian particle tracking and network theory to quantify the timescale over which surface currents connect different regions of the global ocean. We find that the fastest path between two patches—each randomly located anywhere in the surface ocean—is, on average, less than a decade. These results suggest that marine planktonic communities may keep pace with climate change—increasing temperatures, ocean acidification and changes in stratification over decadal timescales—through the advection of resilient types. PMID:27093522

Long Term Surface Salinity Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, Raymond W.; Brown, Neil L.

2005-01-01

Our long-term goal is to establish a reliable system for monitoring surface salinity around the global ocean. Salinity is a strong indicator of the freshwater cycle and has a great influence on upper ocean stratification. Global salinity measurements have potential to improve climate forecasts if an observation system can be developed. This project is developing a new internal field conductivity cell that can be protected from biological fouling for two years. Combined with a temperature sensor, this foul-proof cell can be deployed widely on surface drifters. A reliable in-situ network of surface salinity sensors will be an important adjunct to the salinity sensing satellite AQUARIUS to be deployed by NASA in 2009. A new internal-field conductivity cell has been developed by N Brown, along with new electronics. This sensor system has been combined with a temperature sensor to make a conductivity - temperature (UT) sensor suitable for deployment on drifters. The basic sensor concepts have been proven on a high resolution CTD. A simpler (lower cost) circuit has been built for this application. A protection mechanism for the conductivity cell that includes antifouling protection has also been designed and built. Mr. A.Walsh of our commercial partner E-Paint has designed and delivered time-release formulations of antifoulants for our application. Mr. G. Williams of partner Clearwater Instrumentation advised on power and communication issues and supplied surface drifters for testing.

Mitigating Climate Change with Ocean Pipes: Influencing Land Temperature and Hydrology and Termination Overshoot Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Caldeira, K.; Ricke, K.

2014-12-01

With increasing risk of dangerous climate change geoengineering solutions to Earth's climate problems have attracted much attention. One proposed geoengineering approach considers the use of ocean pipes as a means to increase ocean carbon uptake and the storage of thermal energy in the deep ocean. We use a latest generation Earth System Model (ESM) to perform simulations of idealised extreme implementations of ocean pipes. In our simulations, downward transport of thermal energy by ocean pipes strongly cools the near surface atmosphere - by up to 11°C on a global mean. The ocean pipes cause net thermal energy to be transported from the terrestrial environment to the deep ocean while increasing the global net transport of water to land. By cooling the ocean surface more than the land, ocean pipes tend to promote a monsoonal-type circulation, resulting in increased water vapour transport to land. Throughout their implementation, ocean pipes prevent energy from escaping to space, increasing the amount of energy stored in Earth's climate system despite reductions in surface temperature. As a consequence, our results indicate that an abrupt termination of ocean pipes could cause dramatic increases in surface temperatures beyond that which would have been obtained had ocean pipes not been implemented.

Climatic Effects of Medium-Sized Asteroid Impacts on Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, C.; Garcia, R. R.; Toon, O. B.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

2015-12-01

Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to a medium-sized (1 km) asteroid impact on the land. An impact of this size would cause local fires and may also generate submicron dust particles. Dust aerosols are injected into the upper atmosphere where they persist for ~3 years. Soot aerosols from fires are injected into the troposphere and absorb solar radiation heating the air which helps loft the soot into the stratosphere where it persists for ~10 years. Initially, these aerosols cause a heating of over 240 K in the stratosphere and up to a 70% reduction in downwelling solar radiation at the surface. Global average surface temperature cools by as much as -8.5 K, ocean temperature cools by -4.5 K, precipitation is reduced by 50%, and the ozone column is reduced by 55%. The surface UV Index exceeds 20 in the tropics for several years. These changes represent a significant hazard to life on a global scale. These results extend the work of Pierazzo et al. (2010), also using CESM, which found a significant impact on stratospheric ozone, but little change in surface temperature or precipitation, from a 1 km asteroid impact in the ocean.

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Finite Volume Numerical Methods for Aeroheating Rate Calculations from Infrared Thermographic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daryabeigi, Kamran; Berry, Scott A.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Nowak, Robert J.

2003-01-01

The use of multi-dimensional finite volume numerical techniques with finite thickness models for calculating aeroheating rates from measured global surface temperatures on hypersonic wind tunnel models was investigated. Both direct and inverse finite volume techniques were investigated and compared with the one-dimensional semi -infinite technique. Global transient surface temperatures were measured using an infrared thermographic technique on a 0.333-scale model of the Hyper-X forebody in the Langley Research Center 20-Inch Mach 6 Air tunnel. In these tests the effectiveness of vortices generated via gas injection for initiating hypersonic transition on the Hyper-X forebody were investigated. An array of streamwise orientated heating striations were generated and visualized downstream of the gas injection sites. In regions without significant spatial temperature gradients, one-dimensional techniques provided accurate aeroheating rates. In regions with sharp temperature gradients due to the striation patterns two-dimensional heat transfer techniques were necessary to obtain accurate heating rates. The use of the one-dimensional technique resulted in differences of 20% in the calculated heating rates because it did not account for lateral heat conduction in the model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sepanski, R.J.; Boden, T.A.; Daniels, R.C.

This document presents land-based monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951--1970 reference period mean) on a 5{degree} latitude by 10{degree} longitude global grid. Monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957--1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65{degree}S to 85{degree}S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed inmore » generating regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. This document also presents the monthly mean temperature records for the individual stations that were used to generate the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere station data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form. 14 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.« less

Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences physical retrieval system for remote determination of weather and climate parameter from HIRS2 and MSU observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, J.

1984-01-01

At the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) a physically based satellite temperature sounding retrieval system, involving the simultaneous analysis of HIRS2 and MSU sounding data, was developed for determining atmospheric and surface conditions which are consistent with the observed radiances. In addition to determining accurate atmospheric temperature profiles even in the presence of cloud contamination, the system provides global estimates of day and night sea or land surface temperatures, snow and ice cover, and parameters related to cloud cover. Details of the system are described elsewhere. A brief overview of the system is presented, as well as recent improvements and previously unpublished results, relating to the sea-surface intercomparison workshop, the diurnal variation of ground temperatures, and forecast impact tests.

Identifying anthropogenic anomalies in air, surface and groundwater temperatures in Germany.

PubMed

Benz, Susanne A; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

2017-04-15

Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. The most prominent phenomenon is the urban heat island effect, which has been investigated particularly in large and densely populated cities. This study explores the anthropogenic impact on the thermal regime not only in selected urban areas, but on a countrywide scale for mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature, measured groundwater temperature, and satellite-derived land surface temperature. Taking nighttime lights as an indicator of rural areas, the anthropogenic heat intensity is introduced. It is applicable to each data set and provides the difference between measured local temperature and median rural background temperature. This concept is analogous to the well-established urban heat island intensity, but applicable to each measurement point or pixel of a large, even global, study area. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1km×1km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity, albeit the different compartments are partially influenced through unrelated processes; unlike land surface temperature and surface air temperature, groundwater temperatures are elevated in cultivated areas as well. At the surface of Germany, the highest anthropogenic heat intensity with 4.5K is found at an open-pit lignite mine near Jülich, followed by three large cities (Munich, Düsseldorf and Nuremberg) with annual mean anthropogenic heat intensities >4K. Overall, surface anthropogenic heat intensities >0K and therefore urban heat islands are observed in communities down to a population of 5000. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of MODIS-derived land surface temperature with air temperature measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, Andreas; Akçit, Nuhcan

2017-09-01

Air surface temperature is an important parameter for a wide range of applications such as agriculture, hydrology and climate change studies. Air temperature data is usually obtained from measurements made in meteorological stations, providing only limited information about spatial patterns over wide areas. The use of remote sensing data can help overcome this problem, particularly in areas with low station density, having the potential to improve the estimation of air surface temperature at both regional and global scales. Land Surface (skin) Temperatures (LST) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellite platforms provide spatial estimates of near-surface temperature values. In this study, LST values from MODIS are compared to groundbased near surface air (Tair) measurements obtained from 14 observational stations during 2011 to 2015, covering coastal, mountainous and urban areas over Cyprus. Combining Terra and Aqua LST-8 Day and Night acquisitions into a mean monthly value, provide a large number of LST observations and a better overall agreement with Tair. Comparison between mean monthly LSTs and mean monthly Tair for all sites and all seasons pooled together yields a very high correlation and biases. In addition, the presented high standard deviation can be explained by the influence of surface heterogeneity within MODIS 1km2 grid cells, the presence of undetected clouds and the inherent difference between LST and Tair. However, MODIS LST data proved to be a reliable proxy for surface temperature and mostly for studies requiring temperature reconstruction in areas with lack of observational stations.

Temperature sensitivity of gaseous elemental mercury in the active layer of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost.

PubMed

Ci, Zhijia; Peng, Fei; Xue, Xian; Zhang, Xiaoshan

2018-07-01

Soils represent the single largest mercury (Hg) reservoir in the global environment, indicating that a tiny change of Hg behavior in soil ecosystem could greatly affect the global Hg cycle. Climate warming is strongly altering the structure and functions of permafrost and then would influence the Hg cycle in permafrost soils. However, Hg biogeochemistry in climate-sensitive permafrost is poorly investigated. Here we report a data set of soil Hg (0) concentrations in four different depths of the active layer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost. We find that soil Hg (0) concentrations exhibited a strongly positive and exponential relationship with temperature and showed different temperature sensitivity under the frozen and unfrozen condition. We conservatively estimate that temperature increases following latest temperature scenarios of the IPCC could result in up to a 54.9% increase in Hg (0) concentrations in surface permafrost soils by 2100. Combining the simultaneous measurement of air-soil Hg (0) exchange, we find that enhanced Hg (0) concentrations in upper soils could favor Hg (0) emissions from surface soil. Our findings indicate that Hg (0) emission could be stimulated by permafrost thawing in a warmer world. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Runhua; Cohn, Stephen E.; daSilva, Arlindo; Joiner, Joanna; Houser, Paul R.

1997-01-01

The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface variables are predicted imperfectly due to inherent uncertainties in the modeling process, our study suggests how satellite observations can be combined with the model, through land surface data assimilation, to improve their prediction.

The implications of rebasing global mean temperature timeseries for GCM based climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Global climate and earth system models are assessed by comparison with observations through a number of metrics. The InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights in particular their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. This focus on annual mean global mean temperature (hereafter GMT) change is presented as an important element in demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Any new model or new model version whose historic simulations fail to reproduce the "general features " and 20th century trends is likely therefore to undergo further tuning. Thus this focus could have implications for model development. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies i.e. changes with respect to some period. Since the models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K (roughly observed GMT +/- 1.5K) this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We present timeseries of the slow timescale response of the CMIP5 models rebased to late-20th century temperatures and to mid-19th century temperatures. We provide a mathematical interpretation of this approach to model assessment and discuss two consequences. First is a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. Second, is an implication of linearity in the GMT response (to the extent that the slow-timescale response of the historic simulations is consistent with observations, and given their uncertainties). For each individual model these consequences only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a much wider range of GMTs. The analysis suggests that this aspect of model evaluation risks providing a model development pressure which acts against a wide exploration of physically plausible responses; in particular against an exploration of potentially globally significant nonlinear responses and feedbacks. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten

2016-12-01

The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

Evaluation of the Committed Carbon Emissions and Global Warming due to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbany, Y. F.; Schaefer, K. M.; Jafarov, E. E.; Yumashev, D.; Hope, C.

2017-12-01

We quantify the increase in carbon emissions and temperature due to Permafrost Carbon feedback (PCF), defined as the amplification of anthropogenic warming due to carbon emissions from thawing permafrost (i.e., of near-surface layers to 3 m depth). We simulate the Committed PCF emissions, the cumulative total emissions from thawing permafrost by 2300 for a given global temperature increase by 2100, and investigate the resulting global warming using the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach SiBCASA model. We estimate the committed PCF emissions and warming for the Fifth Assessment Report, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using two ensembles of five projections. For the 2 °C warming target of the global climate change treaty, committed PCF emissions increase to 24 Gt C by 2100 and 76 Gt C by 2300 and the committed PCF warming is 0.23 °C by 2300. Our calculations show that as the global temperature increase by 2100 approaches 5.8 °C, the entire stock of frozen carbon thaws out, resulting in maximum committed PCF emissions of 560 Gt C by 2300.

Climate Response to the Increase in Tropospheric Ozone since Preindustrial Times: A Comparison between Ozone and Equivalent CO2 Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Field, B. D.; Rind, D.

2004-01-01

We examine the characteristics of the climate response to anthropogenic changes in tropospheric ozone. Using a general circulation model, we have carried out a pair of equilibrium climate simulations with realistic present-day and preindustrial ozone distributions. We find that the instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.49 W m(sup -2) due to the increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times results in an increase in global mean surface temperature of 0.28 C. The increase is nearly 0.4 C in the Northern Hemisphere and about 0.2 C in the Southern Hemisphere. The largest increases (greater than 0.8 C) are downwind of Europe and Asia and over the North American interior in summer. In the lower stratosphere, global mean temperatures decrease by about 0.2 C due to the diminished upward flux of radiation at 9.6 micrometers. The largest stratospheric cooling, up to 1.0 C, occurs over high northern latitudes in winter, with possibly important implications for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. To identify the characteristics of climate forcing unique to tropospheric ozone, we have conducted two additional climate equilibrium simulations: one in which preindustrial tropospheric ozone concentrations were increased everywhere by 18 ppb, producing the same global radiative forcing as present-day ozone but without the heterogeneity; and one in which CO2 was decreased by 25 ppm relative to present day, with ozone at present-day values, to again produce the same global radiative forcing but with the spectral signature of CO2 rather than ozone. In the first simulation (uniform increase of ozone), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.25 C, with an interhemispheric difference of only 0.03 C, as compared with nearly 0.2 C for the heterogeneous ozone increase. In the second simulation (equivalent CO2), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.36 C, 30% higher than the increase from tropospheric ozone. The stronger surface warming from CO2 is in part because CO2 forcing (obscured by water vapor) is shifted relatively poleward where the positive ice-albedo feedback amplifies the climate response and in part because the magnitude of the CO2 forcing in the mid-troposphere is double that of ozone. However, we find that CO2 is far less effective than tropospheric ozone in driving lower stratospheric cooling at high northern latitudes in winter.

Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Dana Nuccitelli et al."

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Q.-B.

2014-04-01

In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850-1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that "the climate system takes centuries to millennia to fully equilibrate" is lack of scientific basis. Finally, their model calculations including an additional fitting parameter do not reduce the discrepancy with observed GMST data even after their adjustments. Instead, their modeled results give a sharp GMST rise over the past 16 years, which obviously disagrees with the observed data.

[The progress in retrieving land surface temperature based on thermal infrared and microwave remote sensing technologies].

PubMed

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Li, Xin; Yao, Feng-Mei; Li, Xian-Hua

2009-08-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important parameter in the study on the exchange of substance and energy between land surface and air for the land surface physics process at regional and global scales. Many applications of satellites remotely sensed data must provide exact and quantificational LST, such as drought, high temperature, forest fire, earthquake, hydrology and the vegetation monitor, and the models of global circulation and regional climate also need LST as input parameter. Therefore, the retrieval of LST using remote sensing technology becomes one of the key tasks in quantificational remote sensing study. Normally, in the spectrum bands, the thermal infrared (TIR, 3-15 microm) and microwave bands (1 mm-1 m) are important for retrieval of the LST. In the present paper, firstly, several methods for estimating the LST on the basis of thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing were synthetically reviewed, i. e., the LST measured with an ground-base infrared thermometer, the LST retrieval from mono-window algorithm (MWA), single-channel algorithm (SCA), split-window techniques (SWT) and multi-channels algorithm(MCA), single-channel & multi-angle algorithm and multi-channels algorithm & multi-angle algorithm, and retrieval method of land surface component temperature using thermal infrared remotely sensed satellite observation. Secondly, the study status of land surface emissivity (epsilon) was presented. Thirdly, in order to retrieve LST for all weather conditions, microwave remotely sensed data, instead of thermal infrared data, have been developed recently, and the LST retrieval method from passive microwave remotely sensed data was also introduced. Finally, the main merits and shortcomings of different kinds of LST retrieval methods were discussed, respectively.

Spatial downscaling of SMAP soil moisture using MODIS land surface temperature and NDVI during SMAPVEX15

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission provides global surface soil moisture product at 36 km resolution from its L-band radiometer. While the coarse resolution is satisfactory to many applications there are also a lot of applications which would benefit from a higher resolution soil moistu...

Evaporation and Solar Irradiance as Regulators of Sea Surface Temparature in Annual and Interrannual Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy

1994-01-01

After numerical studies showed that global climate is sensitive to small changes in sea surface temperature (Ts), considerabel effort has been devoted to examine the role of surface fluxes in changing upper ocean heat balance and Ts, particularly in the tropical Pacific where interannual signals, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have major economic and ecological impacts.

Precipitation Climatology on Titan-like Exomoons.

PubMed

Tokano, Tetsuya

2015-06-01

The availability of liquid water on the surface on Earth's continents in part relies on the precipitation of water. This implies that the habitability of exomoons has to consider not only the surface temperature and atmospheric pressure for the presence of liquid water, but also the global precipitation climatology. This study explores the sensitivity of the precipitation climatology of Titan-like exomoons to these moons' orbital configuration using a global climate model. The precipitation rate primarily depends on latitude and is sensitive to the planet's obliquity and the moon's rotation rate. On slowly rotating moons the precipitation shifts to higher latitudes as obliquity is increased, whereas on quickly rotating moons the latitudinal distribution does not strongly depend on obliquity. Stellar eclipse can cause a longitudinal variation in the mean surface temperature and surface pressure between the subplanetary and antiplanetary side if the planet's obliquity and the moon's orbital distance are small. In this particular condition the antiplanetary side generally receives more precipitation than the subplanetary side. However, precipitation on exomoons with dense atmospheres generally occurs at any longitude in contrast to tidally locked exoplanets.

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Peng; Chou, Ming-Dah; Arking, Albert

1987-01-01

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

The role of sea-ice albedo in the climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salameh, Josiane; Popp, Max; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-04-01

We investigate the influence of the rotation period (P_{rot}) on the mean climate of an aquaplanet, with a focus on the role of sea-ice albedo. We perform aquaplanet simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 for various rotation periods from one Earth-day to 365 Earth-days in which case the planet is synchronously rotating. The global-mean surface temperature decreases with increasing P_{rot} and sea ice expands equatorwards. The cooling of the mean climate with increasing P_{rot} is caused partly by the high surface albedo of sea ice on the dayside and partly by the high albedo of the deep convective clouds over the substellar region. The cooling caused by these deep convective clouds is weak for non-synchronous rotations compared to synchronous rotation. Sensitivity simulations with the sea-ice model switched off show that the global-mean surface temperature is up to 27 K higher than in our main simulations with sea ice and thus highlight the large influence of sea ice on the climate. We present the first estimates of the influence of the rotation period on the transition of an Earth-like climate to global glaciation. Our results suggest that global glaciation of planets with synchronous rotation occurs at substantially lower incoming solar irradiation than for planets with slow but non-synchronous rotation.

Quantifying the impact of human activity on temperatures in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

2017-04-01

Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. Alterations of surface cover and land use influence the ambient thermal regime causing spatial temperature anomalies, most commonly heat islands. These local temperature anomalies are primarily described within the bounds of large and densely populated urban settlements, where they form so-called urban heat islands (UHI). This study explores the anthropogenic impact not only for selected cities, but for the thermal regime on a countrywide scale, by analyzing mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature (SAT), measured groundwater temperature (GWT), and satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST). As a universal parameter to quantify anthropogenic heat anomalies, the anthropogenic heat intensity (AHI) is introduced. It is closely related to the urban heat island intensity, but determined for each pixel (for satellite-derived LST) or measurement point (for SAT and GWT) of a large, even global, dataset individually, regardless of land use and location. Hence, it provides the unique opportunity to a) compare the anthropogenic impact on temperatures in air, surface and subsurface, b) to find main instances of anthropogenic temperature anomalies within the study area, in this case Germany, and c) to study the impact of smaller settlements or industrial sites on temperatures. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1 km × 1 km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity; unlike land surface temperature and surface air temperature, groundwater temperatures are elevated in cultivated areas as well. At the surface of Germany, the highest anthropogenic heat intensity with 4.5 K is found at an open-pit lignite mine near Jülich, followed by three large cities (Munich, Düsseldorf and Nuremberg) with annual mean anthropogenic heat intensities > 4 K. Overall, surface anthropogenic heat intensities > 0 K and therefore urban heat islands are observed in communities down to a population of 5,000.

Challenges in the global-scale quantification of permafrost changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruber, S.

2012-12-01

Permafrost underlies much of Earth's surface and interacts with climate, land-surface phenomena and human systems. This presentation highlights heterogeneity and near-isothermal ground, two simple and well-known phenomena, as important challenges for investigating current and future states of permafrost. Heterogeneity, which can be introduced by e.g., topography, vegetation or subsurface material, is shown to be important for large parts of the global permafrost areas based on two proxies calculated from a global model of permafrost distribution. The model is based on a 1km DEM and NCEP-NCAR as well as CRU TS 2.0 air temperature data. Near-isothermal ground occurs when heat flow into a volume of ground material is accompanied by only a minute temperature change due to the dominance of latent heat transfer near 0°C. This causes our monitoring systems, which are to a large part based on temperature measurements, to lose much of their sensitivity as an instrument to measure permafrost changes. The importance of this is argued for based on (a) the long duration that soil columns are usually exposed to this effect, (b) the abundance of boreholes with temperatures close to 0°C based on the IPY-TSP data set, and (c) the global abundance and relative importance of ground near 0°C. The results presented indicated that systems and methods of gathering permafrost evidence and monitoring data need to better account for heterogeneity and isothermal ground in order to maintain long-term relevance, and that in large-area models sub-grid heterogeneity needs explicit attention.

Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

2018-03-01

In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

Modeling the Acceleration of Global Surface Temperture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.

2017-12-01

A mathematical projection focusing on the changing rate of acceleration of Global Surface Temperatures. Using historical trajectory and informed expert near-term prediction, it is possible to extend this further forward drawing a reference arc of acceleration. Presented here is an example of this technique based on data found in the Summary of Findings of A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 and that same team's stated prediction to 2050. With this, we can project a curve showing future acceleration: Decade (midpoint) Change in Global Land Temp Degrees C Known Slope Projected Trend 1755 0.000 1955 0.600 0.0030 2005 1.500 0.0051 2045 3.000 0.0375 2095 5.485 0.0497 2145 8.895 0.0682 2195 13.488 0.0919 Observations: Slopes are getting steeper and doing so faster in an "acceleration of the acceleration" or an "arc of acceleration". This is consistent with the non-linear accelerating feedback loops of global warming. Such projected temperatures threaten human civilization and human life. This `thumbnail' projection is consistent with the other long term predictions based on anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This projection is low when compared to those whose forecasts include greenhouse gases released from thawing permafrost and clathrate hydrates. A reference line: This curve should be considered a point of reference. In the near term and absent significant drawdown of greenhouse gases, my "bet" for this AGU session is that future temperatures will generally be above this reference curve. For example, the decade ending 2020 - more than 1.9C and the decade ending 2030 - more than 2.3C - again measured from the 1750 start point. *Caveat: The long term curve and prediction assumes that mankind does not move quickly away from high cost fossil fuels and does not invent, mobilize and take actions drawing down greenhouse gases. Those seeking a comprehensive action plan are directed to drawdown.org

Thermal Infrared Radiometric Calibration of the Entire Landsat 4, 5, and 7 Archive (1982-2010)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schott, John R.; Hook, Simon J.; Barsi, Julia A.; Markham, Brian L.; Miller, Jonathan; Padula, Francis P.; Raqueno, Nina G.

2012-01-01

Landsat's continuing record of the thermal state of the earth's surface represents the only long term (1982 to the present) global record with spatial scales appropriate for human scale studies (i.e., tens of meters). Temperature drives many of the physical and biological processes that impact the global and local environment. As our knowledge of, and interest in, the role of temperature on these processes have grown, the value of Landsat data to monitor trends and process has also grown. The value of the Landsat thermal data archive will continue to grow as we develop more effective ways to study the long term processes and trends affecting the planet. However, in order to take proper advantage of the thermal data, we need to be able to convert the data to surface temperatures. A critical step in this process is to have the entire archive completely and consistently calibrated into absolute radiance so that it can be atmospherically compensated to surface leaving radiance and then to surface radiometric temperature. This paper addresses the methods and procedures that have been used to perform the radiometric calibration of the earliest sizable thermal data set in the archive (Landsat 4 data). The completion of this effort along with the updated calibration of the earlier (1985 1999) Landsat 5 data, also reported here, concludes a comprehensive calibration of the Landsat thermal archive of data from 1982 to the present

Long-Term Planetary Habitability and the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle.

PubMed

Rushby, Andrew J; Johnson, Martin; Mills, Benjamin J W; Watson, Andrew J; Claire, Mark W

2018-05-01

The potential habitability of an exoplanet is traditionally assessed by determining whether its orbit falls within the circumstellar "habitable zone" of its star, defined as the distance at which water could be liquid on the surface of a planet (Kopparapu et al., 2013 ). Traditionally, these limits are determined by radiative-convective climate models, which are used to predict surface temperatures at user-specified levels of greenhouse gases. This approach ignores the vital question of the (bio)geochemical plausibility of the proposed chemical abundances. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere in terms of regulating planetary temperature, with the long-term concentration controlled by the balance between volcanic outgassing and the sequestration of CO 2 via chemical weathering and sedimentation, as modulated by ocean chemistry, circulation, and biological (microbial) productivity. We developed a model that incorporates key aspects of Earth's short- and long-term biogeochemical carbon cycle to explore the potential changes in the CO 2 greenhouse due to variance in planet size and stellar insolation. We find that proposed changes in global topography, tectonics, and the hydrological cycle on larger planets result in proportionally greater surface temperatures for a given incident flux. For planets between 0.5 and 2 R ⊕ , the effect of these changes results in average global surface temperature deviations of up to 20 K, which suggests that these relationships must be considered in future studies of planetary habitability. Key Words: Planets-Atmospheres-Carbon dioxide-Biogeochemistry. Astrobiology 18, 469-480.

Regional Contrasts of the Warming Rate over Land Significantly Depend on the Calculation Methods of Mean Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2016-04-01

Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (Tm) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the "warming hole" over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depends on the calculation methods of Tm. Existing global analyses calculated Tm from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using Tm calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2.

Climate Trend Detection using Sea-Surface Temperature Data-sets from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR Space Sensors.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.; Noyes, E. J.; Good, S. A.

2007-05-01

Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) is an important indicator of global change, designated by GCOS as an essential Climate Variable (ECV). The detection of trends in Global SST requires rigorous measurements that are not only global, but also highly accurate and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in SST data. This paper presents an analysis of 15 years of SST data from two independent data sets, generated from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR series of sensors respectively. The analyses reveal trends of increasing global temperature between 0.13°C to 0.18 °C, per decade, closely matching that expected from some current predictions. A high level of consistency in the results from the two independent observing systems is seen, which gives increased confidence in data from both systems and also enables comparative analyses of the accuracy and stability of both data sets to be carried out. The conclusion is that these satellite SST data-sets provide important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change. An analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of gross transitory disturbances, notably the El Niño, in order to examine regional areas of change other than the tropical Pacific, is also presented. Interestingly, although El Niño events clearly affect SST globally, they are found to have a non- significant (within error) effect on the calculated trends, which changed by only 0.01 K/decade when the pattern of El Niño and the associated variations was removed from the SST record. Although similar global trends were calculated for these two independent data sets, larger regional differences are noted. Evidence of decreased temperatures after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was also observed. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data-sets, which cover long time-series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterise long-term change.

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

Numerical Representation of Wintertime Near-Surface Inversions in the Arctic with a 2.5-km Version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehghan, A.; Mariani, Z.; Gascon, G.; Bélair, S.; Milbrandt, J.; Joe, P. I.; Crawford, R.; Melo, S.

2017-12-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is implementing a 2.5-km resolution version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model over the Canadian Arctic. Radiosonde observations were used to evaluate the numerical representation of surface-based temperature inversion which is a major feature in the Arctic region. Arctic surface-based inversions are often created by imbalance between radiative cooling processes at surface and warm air advection above. This can have a significant effect on vertical mixing of pollutants and moisture, and ultimately, on cloud formation. It is therefore important to correctly predict the existence of surface inversions along with their characteristics (i.e., intensity and depth). Previous climatological studies showed that the frequency and intensity of surface-based inversions are larger during colder months in the Arctic. Therefore, surface-based inversions were estimated using radiosonde measurements during winter (December 2015 to February 2016) at Iqaluit (Nunavut, Canada). Results show that the inversion intensity can exceed 10 K with depths as large as 1 km. Preliminary evaluation of GEM outputs reveals that the model tends to underestimate the intensity of near-surface inversions, and in some cases, the model failed to predict an inversion. This study presents the factors contributing to this bias including surface temperature and snow cover.

An extended global Earth system data record on daily landscape freeze-thaw status determined from satellite passive microwave remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Youngwook; Kimball, John S.; Glassy, Joseph; Du, Jinyang

2017-02-01

The landscape freeze-thaw (FT) signal determined from satellite microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations has been widely used to define frozen temperature controls on land surface water mobility and ecological processes. Calibrated 37 GHz Tb retrievals from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), and SSM/I Sounder (SSMIS) were used to produce a consistent and continuous global daily data record of landscape FT status at 25 km grid cell resolution. The resulting FT Earth system data record (FT-ESDR) is derived from a refined classification algorithm and extends over a larger domain and longer period (1979-2014) than prior FT-ESDR releases. The global domain encompasses all land areas affected by seasonal frozen temperatures, including urban, snow- and ice-dominant and barren land, which were not represented by prior FT-ESDR versions. The FT retrieval is obtained using a modified seasonal threshold algorithm (MSTA) that classifies daily Tb variations in relation to grid-cell-wise FT thresholds calibrated using surface air temperature data from model reanalysis. The resulting FT record shows respective mean annual spatial classification accuracies of 90.3 and 84.3 % for evening (PM) and morning (AM) overpass retrievals relative to global weather station measurements. Detailed data quality metrics are derived characterizing the effects of sub-grid-scale open water and terrain heterogeneity, as well as algorithm uncertainties on FT classification accuracy. The FT-ESDR results are also verified against other independent cryospheric data, including in situ lake and river ice phenology, and satellite observations of Greenland surface melt. The expanded FT-ESDR enables new investigations encompassing snow- and ice-dominant land areas, while the longer record and favorable accuracy allow for refined global change assessments that can better distinguish transient weather extremes, landscape phenological shifts, and climate anomalies from longer-term trends extending over multiple decades. The dataset is freely available online (doi:10.5067/MEASURES/CRYOSPHERE/nsidc-0477.003).

Sea surface temperature and salinity from French research vessels, 2001–2013

PubMed Central

Gaillard, Fabienne; Diverres, Denis; Jacquin, Stéphane; Gouriou, Yves; Grelet, Jacques; Le Menn, Marc; Tassel, Joelle; Reverdin, Gilles

2015-01-01

French Research vessels have been collecting thermo-salinometer (TSG) data since 1999 to contribute to the Global Ocean Surface Underway Data (GOSUD) programme. The instruments are regularly calibrated and continuously monitored. Water samples are taken on a daily basis by the crew and later analysed in the laboratory. We present here the delayed mode processing of the 2001–2013 dataset and an overview of the resulting quality. Salinity measurement error was a few hundredths of a unit or less on the practical salinity scale (PSS), due to careful calibration and instrument maintenance, complemented with a rigorous adjustment on water samples. In a global comparison, these data show excellent agreement with an ARGO-based salinity gridded product. The Sea Surface Salinity and Temperature from French REsearch SHips (SSST-FRESH) dataset is very valuable for the ‘calibration and validation’ of the new satellite observations delivered by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius missions. PMID:26504523

GSOD Based Daily Global Mean Surface Temperature and Mean Sea Level Air Pressure (1982-2011)

DOE Data Explorer

Xuan Shi, Dali Wang

2014-05-05

This data product contains all the gridded data set at 1/4 degree resolution in ASCII format. Both mean temperature and mean sea level air pressure data are available. It also contains the GSOD data (1982-2011) from NOAA site, contains station number, location, temperature and pressures (sea level and station level). The data package also contains information related to the data processing methods

Influence of the Latitudinal Temperature Gradient on Soil Dust Concentration and Deposition in Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tegen, Ina; Rind, David

2000-01-01

To investigate the effects of changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient and the global mean temperature on dust concentration in the Northern Hemisphere, experiments with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GCM) are performed. The dust concentration over Greenland is calculated from sources in central and eastern Asia, which are integrated on-line in the model. The results show that an increase in the latitudinal temperature gradient increases both the Asian dust source strength and the concentration over Greenland. The source increase is the result of increased surface winds, and to a minor extent, the increase in Greenland dust is also associated with increased northward transport. Cooling the climate in addition to this increased gradient leads to a decrease in precipitation scavenging, which helps produce a further (slight) increase in Greenland dust in this experiment. Reducing the latitudinal gradient reduces the surface wind and hence the dust source, with a subsequent reduction in Greenland dust concentrations. Warming the climate in addition to this reduced gradient leads to a further reduction in Greenland dust due to enhanced precipitation scavenging. These results can be used to evaluate the relationship of Greenland ice core temperature changes to changes in the latitudinal and global temperatures.

Current Climate Variability & Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

2013-12-01

Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'

High-Resolution Thermal Inertia Mapping from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mellon, M.T.; Jakosky, B.M.; Kieffer, H.H.; Christensen, P.R.

2000-01-01

High-resolution thermal inertia mapping results are presented, derived from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) observations of the surface temperature of Mars obtained during the early portion of the MGS mapping mission. Thermal inertia is the key property controlling the diurnal surface temperature variations, and is dependent on the physical character of the top few centimeters of the surface. It represents a complex combination of particle size, rock abundance, exposures of bedrock, and degree of induration. In this work we describe the derivation of thermal inertia from TES data, present global scale analysis, and place these results into context with earlier work. A global map of nighttime thermal-bolometer-based thermal inertia is presented at 14?? per pixel resolution, with approximately 63% coverage between 50??S and 70??N latitude. Global analysis shows a similar pattern of high and low thermal inertia as seen in previous Viking low-resolution mapping. Significantly more detail is present in the high-resolution TES thermal inertia. This detail represents horizontal small-scale variability in the nature of the surface. Correlation with albedo indicates the presence of a previously undiscovered surface unit of moderate-to-high thermal inertia and intermediate albedo. This new unit has a modal peak thermal inertia of 180-250 J m-2 K-1 s-12 and a narrow range of albedo near 0.24. The unit, covering a significant fraction of the surface, typically surrounds the low thermal inertia regions and may comprise a deposit of indurated fine material. Local 3-km-resolution maps are also presented as examples of eolian, fluvial, and volcanic geology. Some impact crater rims and intracrater dunes show higher thermal inertias than the surrounding terrain; thermal inertia of aeolian deposits such as intracrater dunes may be related to average particle size. Outflow channels and valleys consistently show higher thermal inertias than the surrounding terrain. Generally, correlations between spatial variations in thermal inertia and geologic features suggest a relationship between the hundred-meter-scale morphology and the centimeter-scale surface layer. ?? 2000 Academic Press.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Transient climate and ambient health impacts due to national solid fuel cookstove emissions

PubMed Central

Lacey, Forrest G.; Henze, Daven K.; Lee, Colin J.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V.

2017-01-01

Residential solid fuel use contributes to degraded indoor and ambient air quality and may affect global surface temperature. However, the potential for national-scale cookstove intervention programs to mitigate the latter issues is not yet well known, owing to the spatial heterogeneity of aerosol emissions and impacts, along with coemitted species. Here we use a combination of atmospheric modeling, remote sensing, and adjoint sensitivity analysis to individually evaluate consequences of a 20-y linear phase-out of cookstove emissions in each country with greater than 5% of the population using solid fuel for cooking. Emissions reductions in China, India, and Ethiopia contribute to the largest global surface temperature change in 2050 [combined impact of −37 mK (11 mK to −85 mK)], whereas interventions in countries less commonly targeted for cookstove mitigation such as Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have the largest per cookstove climate benefits. Abatement in China, India, and Bangladesh contributes to the largest reduction of premature deaths from ambient air pollution, preventing 198,000 (102,000–204,000) of the 260,000 (137,000–268,000) global annual avoided deaths in 2050, whereas again emissions in Ukraine and Azerbaijan have the largest per cookstove impacts, along with Romania. Global cookstove emissions abatement results in an average surface temperature cooling of −77 mK (20 mK to −278 mK) in 2050, which increases to −118 mK (−11 mK to −335 mK) by 2100 due to delayed CO2 response. Health impacts owing to changes in ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) amount to ∼22.5 million premature deaths prevented between 2000 and 2100. PMID:28115698

Synchronous NDVI and Surface Air Temperature Trends in Newfoundland: 1982 to 2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neigh, C. S. R.; Tucker, C. J.; Townshend, J. R. G.

2007-01-01

The northern regions of the earth are currently experiencing rapid change in temperature and precipitation. This region contains -40% of carbon stored in the world's soil which has accumulated from the last ice age (over 10,000 years ago). The carbon has remained to this point due to reduced decomposition from the short growing seasons and subfreezing temperatures. The influence of climate upon plant growth can have significant consequences to the carbon cycle balance in this region and could potentially alter and release this long term store of carbon to the atmosphere, resulting in a negative feedback enhancing climate warming. These changes have the potential to alter ecosystems processes, which impact human well being. This paper investigated a global satellite record of increases in vegetation growth from 1982 to 2003 developed at GSFC. It was found that, Newfoundland's vegetation growth during the 1990s exceeded global measurements. A number of potential causes were investigated to understand the mechanistic environmental drivers that could alter the productivity of this ecosystem. Possible drivers of change included: human influence of land use change on vegetation cover; changes in precipitation; temperature; cloud cover; snow cover; and growing season length. We found that humans had a minimal influence on vegetation growth in Newfoundland. Less than 6% of the island was logged during the investigation. We found a strong correlation of vegetation growth to a lengthening of the growing season of -9 and -17 days from 1982-1990 and 1991-1999. A distinct drop in plant growth and air temperature was found in 1990 to 1991 from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that reduced global surface air temperatures. These results document the influences of air temperature upon northern forest plant growth and the cooling effects of major volcanic eruptions in this ecological system.

Biological soil crusts: Diminutive communities of potential global importance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrenberg, Scott; Tucker, Colin; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread, diverse communities of cyanobacteria, fungi, lichens, and mosses living on soil surfaces, primarily in drylands. Biocrusts can locally govern primary production, soil fertility, hydrology, and surface energy balance, with considerable variation in these functions across alternate community states. Further, these communities have been implicated in Earth system functioning via potential influences on global biogeochemistry and climate. Biocrusts are easily destroyed by disturbances and appear to be exceptionally vulnerable to warming temperatures and altered precipitation inputs, signaling possible losses of dryland functions with global change. Despite these concerns, we lack sufficient spatiotemporal data on biocrust function, cover, and community structure to confidently assess their ecological roles across the extensive dryland biome. Here, we present the case for cross-scale research and restoration efforts coupled with remote-sensing and modeling approaches that improve our collective understanding of biocrust responses to global change and the ecological roles of these diminutive communities at global scales.

Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.

Implications of the lack of global dimming and brightening in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2017-12-01

The global temperature trend of the last half-century is widely believed to be the result of two opposing effects; aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas (GHG) warming. While the radiative effect of increasing GHG concentrations is well-constrained, that due to anthropogenic aerosols is not, in part because observational constraints on the latter are lacking. However, long-term surface measurements of downward solar radiation (DSRS), an often-used proxy for aerosol radiative forcing, are available worldwide from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). We compare DSRS changes from 1,300 GEBA stations to those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, sampled only when/where observations are available. The observed DSRS shows a strong early (1964-1990) downward trend, followed by a weaker regional trend reversal. Regional emission data for aerosols and aerosol precursors suggest that the culprit for both features was changes to the atmospheric aerosol loading. In contrast, the models show weak or negligible DSRS trends, suggesting a too weak aerosol forcing. We present sensitivity studies with a single model (CESM1.2) that aim to simultaneously reproduce the observed trends in DSRS and surface temperature.

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1992-01-01

Global maps of the monthly mean net upward longwave radiation flux at the ocean surface were obtained for April, July, October 1985 and January 1986. These maps were produced by blending information obtained from a combination of general circulation model cloud radiative forcing fields, the top of the atmosphere cloud radiative forcing from ERBE and TOVS profiles and sea surface temperature on ISCCP C1 tapes. The fields are compatible with known meteorological regimes of atmospheric water vapor content and cloudiness. There is a vast area of high net upward longwave radiation flux (greater than 80/sq Wm) in the eastern Pacific Ocean throughout most of the year. Areas of low net upward longwave radiation flux ((less than 40/sq Wm) are the tropical convective regions and extra tropical regions that tend to have persistent low cloud cover.The technique used relies on General Circulation Model simulations and so is subject to some of the uncertainties associated with the model. However, all input information regarding temperature, moisture, and cloud cover is from satellite data having near global coverage. This feature of the procedure alone warrants its consideration for further use in compiling global maps of longwave radiation.

Sea Ice Surface Temperature Product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Casey, Kimberly A.; Riggs, George A.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2003-01-01

Global sea ice products are produced from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board both the Terra and Aqua satellites. Daily sea ice extent and ice-surface temperature (IST) products are available at 1- and 4-km resolution. Validation activities have been undertaken to assess the accuracy of the MODIS IST product at the South Pole station in Antarctica and in the Arctic Ocean using near-surface air-temperature data from a meteorological station and drifting buoys. Results from the study areas show that under clear skies, the MODIS ISTs are very close to those of the near-surface air temperatures with a bias of -1.1 and -1.2 K, and an uncertainty of 1.6 and 1.7 K, respectively. It is shown that the uncertainties would be reduced if the actual temperature of the ice surface were reported instead of the near-surface air temperature. It is not possible to get an accurate IST from MODIS in the presence of even very thin clouds or fog, however using both the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) and the MODIS on the Aqua satellite, it may be possible to develop a relationship between MODIS-derived IST and ice temperature derived from the AMSR-E. Since the AMSR-E measurements are generally unaffected by cloud cover, they may be used to complement the MODIS IST measurements.

Improvement of Mars surface snow albedo modeling in LMD Mars GCM with SNICAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, D.; Flanner, M.; Millour, E.

2017-12-01

The current version of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Mars GCM (original-MGCM) uses annually repeating (prescribed) albedo values from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations. We integrate the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with MGCM (SNICAR-MGCM) to prognostically determine H2O and CO2 ice cap albedos interactively in the model. Over snow-covered regions mean SNICAR-MGCM albedo is higher by about 0.034 than original-MGCM. Changes in albedo and surface dust content also impact the shortwave energy flux at the surface. SNICAR-MGCM model simulates a change of -1.26 W/m2 shortwave flux on a global scale. Globally, net CO2 ice deposition increases by about 4% over one Martian annual cycle as compared to original-MGCM simulations. SNICAR integration reduces the net mean global surface temperature, and the global surface pressure of Mars by about 0.87% and 2.5% respectively. Changes in albedo also show a similar distribution as dust deposition over the globe. The SNICAR-MGCM model generates albedos with higher sensitivity to surface dust content as compared to original-MGCM. For snow-covered regions, we improve the correlation between albedo and optical depth of dust from -0.91 to -0.97 with SNICAR-MGCM as compared to original-MGCM. Using new diagnostic capabilities with this model, we find that cryospheric surfaces (with dust) increase the global surface albedo of Mars by 0.022. The cryospheric effect is severely muted by dust in snow, however, which acts to decrease the planet-mean surface albedo by 0.06.

Climate Change on Mars: Cloud Greenhouse Effects in the Recent Past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Hollingsorth, Jeffery L.

2014-11-01

The large variations in Mars’ orbit parameters are known to be significant drivers of climate change. We present results from an updated version of the Ames GCM that shows at times of high obliquity it is possible that water ice clouds from a greatly intensified Martian hydrological cycle may have produced a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise global mean surface temperatures by several tens of degrees Kelvin. It is made possible by the ability of the Martian atmosphere to transport water to high altitudes where cold water ice clouds form, reduce the outgoing long wave radiation, and cause surface temperatures to rise to maintain global energy balance. Since Mars spends much of its time at high obliquity, these results suggest that Mars undergoes even more significant climate change due to orbital variations than previously thought.

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

2018-01-01

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

Engaging Communities to Understand and Adapt to Environmental Changes with The GLOBE Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, K.; Malmberg, J. S.; Murphy, T.; Mauriello, H.

2015-12-01

During the past twenty years, The GLOBE Program (www.globe.gov) has connected scientists, K-12 students, teachers, and other stakeholders to "co-create" scientific understanding of their local, regional, and global environment in more than 110 countries. Through the support and collaboration of federal agencies- NASA, NSF, and NOAA- the community-driven GLOBE database has more than 130 million Earth science measurements (atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and pedosphere) that align with the USGCRP's indicators of climate change, such as air and surface temperature (Indicator: Global Surface Temperature), land cover (Indicators: 1) Forest Cover; 2) Grassland, Shrubland, and Pasture Cover), and plant phenology (Indicator: Start of Spring). GLOBE contributes to climate literacy while encouraging community members of all ages to enrich their scientific understanding, define issues of local relevance, and engage in broader action, such as regional and global science campaigns. In this session, we will present case studies of how GLOBE data has been used to inspire "homegrown" research campaigns such as the GLOBE Surface Temperature Campaign and European Aerosols Campaign, as well as solution-based action in response to environmental changes, including the development of a mosquito protocol in Thailand and across Africa and a toad service project in the Czech Republic. We will also discuss some of the initiatives we have led as a program in order to promote and share local and regional community-led efforts with our worldwide GLOBE community, as well as some of the challenges and opportunities presented by supporting climate research.

Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

2015-11-01

Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the most efficient cooling from a switch to fuel with a lower BC emission factor (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Latvia). The results presented here thus provide valuable information for climate impact assessments across a wide range of cookstove initiatives.

Using Data Assimilation Diagnostics to Assess the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf; Liu, Qing; De Lannoy, Gabrielle; Crow, Wade; Kimball, John; Koster, Randy; Ardizzone, Joe

2018-01-01

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx.2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era.

PubMed

2017-07-11

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emile-Geay, Julian; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, T.; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Bjorklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, M.; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Koc, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, K.M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, X.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Thapa, Udya Kuwar; Thomas, E.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, A.E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene; White, James W. C.; Yu, Z.; Zinke, Jens

2017-01-01

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

PubMed Central

Emile-Geay, Julien; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A.N.; Björklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, Massimo; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Koç, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi A.; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, Krystyna M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, Xuemei; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Kuwar Thapa, Udya; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, Andre E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene R.; White, James W.C.; Yu, Zicheng; Zinke, Jens

2017-01-01

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. PMID:28696409

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

PubMed Central

Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

2016-01-01

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E.; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Dalton, Steven J.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C. Mark; Figueira, Will F.; Gilmour, James P.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Kennedy, Emma V.; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; McWilliam, Michael J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Pears, Rachel J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J.; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R.; Willis, Bette L.; Wilson, Shaun K.

2017-03-01

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

PubMed

Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

2016-02-05

Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Impacts of Canadian and global black carbon shipping emissions on Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; von Salzen, K.

2017-12-01

Shipping activities have increased across the Arctic and are projected to continue to increase in the future. In this study we compare the climate impacts of Canadian and global shipping black carbon (BC) emissions on the Arctic using the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM4.1). The model simulations are performed with and without shipping emissions at T63 (128 x 64) spectral resolution. Results indicate that shipping activities enhance BC concentrations across the area close to the shipping emissions, which causes increased absorption of solar radiation (direct effect). An impact of shipping on temperatures is simulated across the entire Arctic, with maximum warming in fall and winter seasons. Although global mean temperature changes are very similar between the two simulations, increase in Canadian BC shipping emissions cause warmer Arctic land surface temperature in summer due to the direct radiative effects of aerosol.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Anderson, Kristen D; Baird, Andrew H; Babcock, Russell C; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C; Butler, Ian R; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R; Cumming, Graeme S; Dalton, Steven J; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C Mark; Figueira, Will F; Gilmour, James P; Harrison, Hugo B; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Kennedy, Emma V; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M; Lowe, Ryan J; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T; Malcolm, Hamish A; McWilliam, Michael J; Pandolfi, John M; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R; Willis, Bette L; Wilson, Shaun K

2017-03-15

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Can unforced radiative variability explain the "hiatus"?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donohoe, A.

2016-02-01

The paradox of the "hiatus" is characterized as a decade long period over which global mean surface temperature remained relatively constant even though greenhouse forcing forcing is believed to have been positive and increasing. Explanations of the hiatus have focused on two primary lines of thought: 1. There was a net radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere (TOA) but this energy input was stored in the ocean without increasing surface temperature or 2. There was no radiative imbalance at the TOA because the greenhouse forcing was offset by other climate forcings. Here, we explore a third hypothesis: that there was no TOA radiative imbalance over the decade due to unforced, natural modes of radiative variability that are unrelated to global mean temperature. Is it possible that the Earth could emit enough radiation to offset greenhouse forcing without increasing its temperature due to internal modes of climate variability? Global mean TOA energy imbalance is estimated to be 0.65 W m-2 as determined from the long term change in ocean heat content - where the majority of the energy imbalance is stored. Therefore, in order to offset this TOA energy imbalance natural modes of radiative variability with amplitudes of order 0.5 W m-2 at the decadal timescale are required. We demonstrate that unforced coupled climate models have global mean radiative variability of the required magnitude (2 standard deviations of 0.57 W m-2 in the inter-model mean) and that the vast majority (>90%) of this variability is unrelated to surface temperature radiative feedbacks. However, much of this variability is at shorter (monthly and annual) timescales and does not persist from year to year making the possibility of a decade long natural interruption of the energy accumulation in the climate system unlikely due to natural radiative variability alone given the magnitude of the greenhouse forcing on Earth. Comparison to observed satellite data suggest the models capture the magnitude (2 sigma = 0.61 W m-2) and mechanisms of internal radiative variability but we cannot exclude the possibility of low frequency modes of variability with significant magnitude given the limited length of the satellite record.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Our contaminated atmosphere: The danger of climate change, phases 1 and 2. [effect of atmospheric particulate matter on surface temperature and earth's radiation budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cimorelli, A. J.; House, F. B.

1974-01-01

The effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter on average surface temperature and on the components of the earth's radiation budget are studied. An atmospheric model which couples particulate loading to surface temperature and to changes in the earth's radiation budget was used. A determination of the feasibility of using satellites to monitor the effect of increased atmospheric particulate concentrations is performed. It was found that: (1) a change in man-made particulate loading of a factor of 4 is sufficient to initiate an ice age; (2) variations in the global and hemispheric weighted averages of surface temperature, reflected radiant fluz and emitted radiant flux are nonlinear functions of particulate loading; and (3) a black satellite sphere meets the requirement of night time measurement sensitivity, but not the required day time sensitivity. A nonblack, spherical radiometer whose external optical properties are sensitive to either the reflected radiant fluz or the emitted radiant flux meets the observational sensitivity requirements.

Interactive effects of climate change and eutrophication on the dinoflagellate-bearing benthic foraminifer Marginopora vertebralis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uthicke, S.; Vogel, N.; Doyle, J.; Schmidt, C.; Humphrey, C.

2012-06-01

Elevated sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change and increased nutrient concentrations resulting from land runoff both are stressors for calcifying coral reef organisms. Here, we test the hypothesis that increased temperature leads to bleaching in dinoflagellate-bearing foraminifera similar to corals and that increased nutrients through runoff can exaggerate stress on the holobiont. In an experiment manipulating temperatures alone, we have shown that mortality of Marginopora vertebralis increased with temperatures. Most individuals died after 7 days at 34°C, ~5°C above current summer maxima. Survival at 37 days was >98% at 28°C. After 7 days of exposure to 31 or 32°C, photosynthesis of the endosymbionts was compromised, as indicated by several photophysiological parameters (effective quantum yield and apparent photosynthetic rate). In a flow-though experiment manipulating both temperature (three levels, 26, 29 and 31°C) and nitrate concentrations (3 levels, ~0.5, 1.0 and 1.4 μmol l-1 NO3 -), elevated temperature had a significant negative effect on most parameters measured. At 31°C, most photopigments (measured by UPLC) in the foraminifera were significantly reduced. The only pigment that increased was the photoprotective diatoxanthin. Several other parameters measured (maximum and effective quantum yield, O2 production in light, organic carbon contents) also significantly decreased with temperature. Optode-based respirometry demonstrated that the presence of symbionts at elevated temperatures represents a net carbon loss for the host. Growth rates of M. vertebralis and mortality at the end of the experiment were significantly affected by both temperature increase and nitrate addition. We conclude that these foraminifera bleach in a similar fashion to corals and that global sea surface temperature change and nitrate increases are stressors for these protists. Furthermore, this provides support for the hypothesis that management of local stressors elevates resilience of coral reefs to global stressors.

Thermal profiles for selected river reaches of the Methow and Chewuch Rivers, Washington, August 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gendaszek, Andrew S.

2012-01-01

Longitudinal profiles of near-streambed and near-surface temperatures were collected for selected reaches of the Methow and Chewuch Rivers, Washington, during August 2011 to facilitate development of a stream temperature model near the confluence of the Methow and Chewuch Rivers. Temperature was measured using a probe with an internal datalogger towed behind a watercraft moving downstream at ambient river velocity. For the Methow River, an additional temperature survey was completed using near-streambed and near-surface probes towed behind a second watercraft that traversed the channel to measure vertical and lateral temperature variability. All data were referenced to location that was concurrently measured with a Global Positioning System. Data are presented as Microsoft Excel® files consisting of date and time, water temperature, and Washington State Plane North easting and northing.

Progress in remote sensing of global land surface heat fluxes and evaporations with a turbulent heat exchange parameterization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xuelong; Su, Bob

2017-04-01

Remote sensing has provided us an opportunity to observe Earth land surface with a much higher resolution than any of GCM simulation. Due to scarcity of information for land surface physical parameters, up-to-date GCMs still have large uncertainties in the coupled land surface process modeling. One critical issue is a large amount of parameters used in their land surface models. Thus remote sensing of land surface spectral information can be used to provide information on these parameters or assimilated to decrease the model uncertainties. Satellite imager could observe the Earth land surface with optical, thermal and microwave bands. Some basic Earth land surface status (land surface temperature, canopy height, canopy leaf area index, soil moisture etc.) has been produced with remote sensing technique, which already help scientists understanding Earth land and atmosphere interaction more precisely. However, there are some challenges when applying remote sensing variables to calculate global land-air heat and water exchange fluxes. Firstly, a global turbulent exchange parameterization scheme needs to be developed and verified, especially for global momentum and heat roughness length calculation with remote sensing information. Secondly, a compromise needs to be innovated to overcome the spatial-temporal gaps in remote sensing variables to make the remote sensing based land surface fluxes applicable for GCM model verification or comparison. A flux network data library (more 200 flux towers) was collected to verify the designed method. Important progress in remote sensing of global land flux and evaporation will be presented and its benefits for GCM models will also be discussed. Some in-situ studies on the Tibetan Plateau and problems of land surface process simulation will also be discussed.

Assessment of Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using new satellite SST data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascione Kenov, Isabella; Sykes, Peter; Fiedler, Emma; McConnell, Niall; Ryan, Andrew; Maksymczuk, Jan

2016-04-01

There is an increased demand for accurate ocean weather information for applications in the field of marine safety and navigation, water quality, offshore commercial operations, monitoring of oil spills and pollutants, among others. The Met Office, UK, provides ocean forecasts to customers from governmental, commercial and ecological sectors using the Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), an operational modelling system which covers the global ocean and runs daily, using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model with horizontal resolution of 1/4° and 75 vertical levels. The system assimilates salinity and temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and sea ice concentration observations on a daily basis. In this study, the FOAM system is updated to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) SST data. Model results from one month trials are assessed against observations using verification tools which provide a quantitative description of model performance and error, based on statistical metrics, including mean error, root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient, and Taylor diagrams. A series of hindcast experiments is used to run the FOAM system with AMSR2 and SEVIRI SST data, using a control run for comparison. Results show that all trials perform well on the global ocean and that largest SST mean errors were found in the Southern hemisphere. The geographic distribution of the model error for SST and temperature profiles are discussed using statistical metrics evaluated over sub-regions of the global ocean.

Detecting Global Hydrological Cycle Intensification in Sea Surface Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poague, J.; Stine, A.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, but significant regional differences exist in the predicted response. The proposed zonal mean thermodynamic response is enhanced horizontal moisture transport associated with increased saturation vapor pressure, which in turn drives additional net precipitation in the tropics and at high latitudes and additional net evaporation in the subtropics. Sea surface salinity (SSS) anomalies are forced from above by changes in evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) and thus will respond to changes in the global hydrological cycle, opening the possibility of using historical SSS anomalies to diagnose the response of the hydrological cycle to warming. We estimate zonal mean SSS trends in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins from 1955-2015 to test whether historical changes in the global hydrological cycle are consistent with a primarily thermodynamic response. Motivated by this observation, we calculate the sensitivity of basin zonal-mean SSS anomalies to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing as a function of timescale to diagnose and estimate the signal-to-noise ratio of the purely thermodynamic signal as a function of timescale. High-frequency variability in SSS anomalies is likely to be influenced by variability in atmospheric circulation, complicating the attribution of the link between basin zonal-mean SSS anomalies and global SST anomalies. We therefore estimate the basin zonal mean SSS anomaly response to the major modes of large-scale dynamic variability. We find a strong correlation between detrended zonal-mean SSS anomalies and the Pacific-North American index (R=0.71,P<0.01) in the Pacific Ocean. We interpret the relationship between zonal mean SSS anomalies and temperature in terms of the relative contribution of thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Spatiotemporal correlation structure of the Earth's surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fredriksen, Hege-Beate; Rypdal, Kristoffer; Rypdal, Martin

2015-04-01

We investigate the spatiotemporal temperature variability for several gridded instrumental and climate model data sets. The temporal variability is analysed by estimating the power spectral density and studying the differences between local and global temperatures, land and sea, and among local temperature records at different locations. The spatiotemporal correlation structure is analysed through cross-spectra that allow us to compute frequency-dependent spatial autocorrelation functions (ACFs). Our results are then compared to theoretical spectra and frequency-dependent spatial ACFs derived from a fractional stochastic-diffusive energy balance model (FEBM). From the FEBM we expect both local and global temperatures to have a long-range persistent temporal behaviour, and the spectral exponent (β) is expected to increase by a factor of two when going from local to global scales. Our comparison of the average local spectrum and the global spectrum shows good agreement with this model, although the FEBM has so far only been studied for a pure land planet and a pure ocean planet, respectively, with no seasonal forcing. Hence it cannot capture the substantial variability among the local spectra, in particular between the spectra for land and sea, and for equatorial and non-equatorial temperatures. Both models and observation data show that land temperatures in general have a low persistence, while sea surface temperatures show a higher, and also more variable degree of persistence. Near the equator the spectra deviate from the power-law shape expected from the FEBM. Instead we observe large variability at time scales of a few years due to ENSO, and a flat spectrum at longer time scales, making the spectrum more reminiscent of that of a red noise process. From the frequency-dependent spatial ACFs we observe that the spatial correlation length increases with increasing time scale, which is also consistent with the FEBM. One consequence of this is that longer-lasting structures must also be wider in space. The spatial correlation length is also observed to be longer for land than for sea. The climate model simulations studied are mainly CMIP5 control runs of length 500-1000 yr. On time scales up to several centuries we do not observe that the difference between the local and global spectral exponents vanish. This also follows from the FEBM and shows that the dynamics is spatiotemporal (not just temporal) even on these time scales.

Global River Water Temperature Modelling at Hyper-Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

The temperature of river water plays a crucial role in many physical, chemical and biological aquatic processes. The influence of changing water temperatures is not only felt locally, but also has regional and downstream impacts. Sectors that might be affected by sudden or gradual changes in the water temperature are: energy production, industry and recreation. Although it is very important to have detailed information on this environmental variable, high-resolution simulations of water temperature on a large scale are currently lacking. Here we present a novel hyper-resolution water temperature dataset at the global scale. We developed the 1-D energy routing model WARM, to simulate river temperature for the period 1980-2014 at 10 km and 50 km resolution. The WARM model accounts for surface water abstraction, reservoirs, riverine flooding and formation of ice, therefore enabling a realistic representation of the water temperature. The water temperature simulations have been validated against 358 river monitoring stations globally for the period 1980 to 2014. The results indicate the increase in resolution significantly improves the simulation performance with a decrease in the water temperature RMSE from 3.5°C to 3.0°C and an increase in the mean correlation of the daily discharge simulations, from R=0.4 to 0.6. We find an average global increase in water temperature of 0.22°C per decade between 1960-2014, with increasing trends towards the end of the simulations period. Strong increasing trends in maxima in the Northern Hemisphere (0.62°C per decade) and minima in the Southern Hemisphere (0.45°C per decade). Finally, we show the impact of major heatwaves and drought events on the water temperature and water availability. The high resolution not only improves the model performance; it also positively impacts the relevancy of the simulation for local and regional scale studies and impact assessments. This new global water temperature dataset could help to develop decision-support system related to water quality with increasing precision and accuracy.

Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Li, Chongyin

2018-04-01

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300-700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

On the direct impact of the CO2 concentration rise to the global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laubereau, Alfred; Iglev, Hristo

2013-10-01

The growing amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is often considered as the dominant factor for the global warming during the past decades. The noted correlation, however, does not answer the question about causality. In addition, the reported temperature data do not display a simple relationship between the monotonic concentration increase from 1880 to 2010 and the non-monotonic temperature rise during the same period. We have performed new measurements for optically thick samples of CO2 and investigate its role for the greenhouse effect on the basis of these spectroscopic data. Using simplified global models the warming of the surface is computed and a relatively modest effect is found, only: from the reported CO2 concentration rise in the atmosphere from 290 to 385 ppmv in 1880 to 2010 we derive a direct temperature rise of 0.26+/-0.01\\ \\text{K} . Including the simultaneous feedback effect of atmospheric water we still arrive at a minor CO2 contribution of less than 33% to the reported global warming of {\\sim}1.2\\ \\text{K} . It is suggested that other factors that are known to influence the greenhouse effect, e.g. air pollution by black carbon should be considered in more detail to fully understand the global temperature change.

A 7.5-Year Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Surface Turbulent Fluxes Over Global Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Shie, Chung-Lin; Atlas, Robert M.; Ardizzone, Joe; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation, while Evaporation is a key component of hydrological cycle and surface heat budget. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily, individual monthly-mean and climatological (1988-94) monthly-mean surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from measurements of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board the US Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F8, F10, and F11 satellites. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0x2.5 latitude-longitude. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) IS found to be generally accurate as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations over global oceans. The surface wind speed and specific humidity (latent heat flux) derived from the F10 SSM/I are found to be -encrally smaller (larger) than those retrieved from the F11 SSM/I. The F11 SSM/I appears to have slightly better retrieval accuracy for surface wind speed and humidity as compared to the F10 SSM/I. This difference may be due to the orbital drift of the F10 satellite. The daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes retrieved from F10 and F11 SSM/Is show useful accuracy as verified against the research quality in si -neasurerrients (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE Intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes and input variables derived from FS and F11 SSM/Is show reasonable patterns related to seasonal variations of atmospheric general circulation. This dataset of SSM/I-derived turbulent fluxes is useful for climate studies, forcing of ocean models, and validation of coupled ocean-atmosphere global models and can be accessed through the NASA/GSFC Distributed Active Archive Center.

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE PAGES

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.; ...

2016-07-18

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature: Workshop-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoku, E. G.

1984-01-01

Global accuracies and error characteristics of presently orbiting satellite sensors are examined. The workshops are intended to lead to a better understanding of present capabilities for sea surface temperature measurement and to improve measurement concepts for the future. Data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AVHRR and Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer is emphasized. Some data from the High Resolution Infrared Sounder HIRS and AVHRR are also examined. Comparisons of satellite data with ship and eXpendable BathyThermograph XBT measurement show standard deviations in the range 0.5 to 1.3 C with biases of less than 0.4 C, depending on the sensor, ocean region, and spatial/temporal averaging. The Sea Surface Temperature SST anomaly maps show good agreement in some cases, but a number of sensor related problems are identified.

Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garuba, Oluwayemi

An important parameter for the climate response to increased greenhouse gases or other radiative forcing is the speed at which heat anomalies propagate downward in the ocean. Ocean heat uptake occurs through passive advection/diffusion of surface heat anomalies and through the redistribution of existing temperature gradients due to circulation changes. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakens in a warming climate and this should slow the downward heat advection (compared to a case in which the circulation is unchanged). However, weakening AMOC also causes a deep warming through the redistributive effect, thus increasing the downward rate of heat propagation compared to unchanging circulation. Total heat uptake depends on the combined effect of these two mechanisms. Passive tracers in a perturbed CO2 quadrupling experiments are used to investigate the effect of passive advection and redistribution of temperature anomalies. A new passive tracer formulation is used to separate ocean heat uptake into contributions due to redistribution and passive advection-diffusion of surface heating during an ocean model experiment with abrupt increase in surface temperature. The spatial pattern and mechanisms of each component are examined. With further experiments, the effects of surface wind, salinity and temperature changes in changing circulation and the resulting effect on redistribution in the individual basins are isolated. Analysis of the passive advection and propagation path of the tracer show that the Southern ocean dominates heat uptake, largely through vertical and horizontal diffusion. Vertical diffusion transports the tracer across isopycnals down to about 1000m in 100 years in the Southern ocean. Advection is more important in the subtropical cells and in the Atlantic high latitudes, both with a short time scale of about 20 years. The shallow subtropical cells transport the tracer down to about 500m along isopycnal surfaces, below this vertical diffusion takes over transport in the tropics; in the Atlantic, the MOC transports heat as deep 2000m in about 30 years. Redistributive surface heat uptake alters the total amount surface heat uptake among the basins. Compared to the passive-only heat uptake, which is about the same among the basins, redistribution nearly doubles the surface heat input into the Atlantic but makes smaller increases in the Indian and Pacific oceans for a net global increase of about 25%, in the perturbation experiment with winds unchanged. The passive and redistributive heat uptake components are further distributed among the basins through the global conveyor belt. The Pacific gains twice the surface heat input into it through lateral transport from the other two basins, as a result, the Atlantic and Pacific gain similar amounts of heat even though surface heat input is in the Atlantic is much bigger. Of this heat transport, most of the passive component comes from the Indian and the redistributive component comes from the Atlantic. Different surface forcing perturbation gives different circulation change pattern and as a result yield different redistributive uptake. Ocean heat uptake is more sensitive to wind forcing perturbation than to thermohaline forcing perturbation. About 2% reduction in subtropical cells transport and southern ocean transport, in the wind-change perturbation experiment, resulted in about 10% reduction in the global ocean heat uptake of wind-unchanged experiment. The AMOC weakened by about 35% and resulted in a 25% increase in passive heat uptake in the wind-unchanged experiment. Surface winds weakening reduces heat uptake by warming the reservoir surface temperatures, while MOC weakening increases heat input by a cooling reservoir surface temperatures. Thermohaline forcing perturbation is combination of salinity and temperature perturbations, both weaken the AMOC, however, they have opposite redistributive effects. Ocean surface freshening gives positive redistributive effect, while surface temperature increase gives negative redistributive effect on heat uptake. The salinity effect dominates the redistributive effect for thermohaline perturbation.

Pressure-Sensitive Paint Measurements on Surfaces with Non-Uniform Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bencic, Timothy J.

1999-01-01

Pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) has become a useful tool to augment conventional pressure taps in measuring the surface pressure distribution of aerodynamic components in wind tunnel testing. While the PSP offers the advantage of a non-intrusive global mapping of the surface pressure, one prominent drawback to the accuracy of this technique is the inherent temperature sensitivity of the coating's luminescent intensity. A typical aerodynamic surface PSP test has relied on the coated surface to be both spatially and temporally isothermal, along with conventional instrumentation for an in situ calibration to generate the highest accuracy pressure mappings. In some tests however, spatial and temporal thermal gradients are generated by the nature of the test as in a blowing jet impinging on a surface. In these cases, the temperature variations on the painted surface must be accounted for in order to yield high accuracy and reliable data. A new temperature correction technique was developed at NASA Lewis to collapse a "family" of PSP calibration curves to a single intensity ratio versus pressure curve. This correction allows a streamlined procedure to be followed whether or not temperature information is used in the data reduction of the PSP. This paper explores the use of conventional instrumentation such as thermocouples and pressure taps along with temperature-sensitive paint (TSP) to correct for the thermal gradients that exist in aeropropulsion PSP tests. Temperature corrected PSP measurements for both a supersonic mixer ejector and jet cavity interaction tests are presented.

Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Radakovich, Jon D.; daSilva, Arlindo; Todling, Ricardo; Verter, Frances

2006-01-01

In an initial investigation, remotely sensed surface temperature is assimilated into a coupled atmosphere/land global data assimilation system, with explicit accounting for biases in the model state. In this scheme, an incremental bias correction term is introduced in the model's surface energy budget. In its simplest form, the algorithm estimates and corrects a constant time mean bias for each gridpoint; additional benefits are attained with a refined version of the algorithm which allows for a correction of the mean diurnal cycle. The method is validated against the assimilated observations, as well as independent near-surface air temperature observations. In many regions, not accounting for the diurnal cycle of bias caused degradation of the diurnal amplitude of background model air temperature. Energy fluxes collected through the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) are used to more closely inspect the surface energy budget. In general, sensible heat flux is improved with the surface temperature assimilation, and two stations show a reduction of bias by as much as 30 Wm(sup -2) Rondonia station in Amazonia, the Bowen ratio changes direction in an improvement related to the temperature assimilation. However, at many stations the monthly latent heat flux bias is slightly increased. These results show the impact of univariate assimilation of surface temperature observations on the surface energy budget, and suggest the need for multivariate land data assimilation. The results also show the need for independent validation data, especially flux stations in varied climate regimes.

Temperature Changes in the United States. Chapter 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vose, R. S.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

GLOBE students, teachers, and scientists demonstrate variable differences between urban and rural leaf phenology

Treesearch

Rico Gazal; Michael A. White; Robert Gillies; Eli Rodemakers; Elena Sparrow; Leslie Gordon

2008-01-01

The urban heat island effect, classically associated with high impervious surface area (ISA), low vegetation fractional cover (Fr), and high land surface temperature (LST), has been linked to changing patterns of vegetation phenology, especially spring growth. In this study, a collaboration with the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE)...

Modelling of surface-water temperature for the estimation of the Czech fishery productivity under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svobodová, Eva; Trnka, Miroslav; Kopp, Radovan; Mareš, Jan; Dubrovský, Martin; Spurný, Petr; Žalud, Zděněk

2015-04-01

Freshwater fish production is significantly correlated with water temperature which is expected to increase under the climate change. This study is dealing with the estimation of the change of water temperature in productive ponds and its impact on the fishery in the Czech Republic. Calculation of surface-water temperature which was based on three-day mean of the air temperature was developed and tested in several ponds in three main fish production areas. Output of surface-water temperature model was compared with measured data and showed that the lower range of model accuracy is surface-water temperature 3°C, under this temperature threshold the model loses its predictive competence. In the expecting of surface-water temperature above the temperature 3°C the model has proved the well consistence between observed and modelled surface-water temperature (R 0.79 - 0.96). Verified model was applied in the conditions of climate change determined by the pattern scaling method, in which standardised scenarios were derived from five global circulation models MPEH5, CSMK3, IPCM4, GFCM21 and HADGEM. Results were evaluated with regard to thresholds which characterise the fish species requirements on water temperature. Used thresholds involved the upper temperature threshold for fish survival and the tolerable number of days in continual period with mentioned threshold surface-water temperature. Target fish species were Common carp (Cyprinus carpio), Maraene whitefish (Coregonus maraena), Northern whitefish (Coregonus peled) and Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykis). Results indicated the limitation of the Czech fish-farming in terms of i) the increase of the length of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold appropriate to given fish species toleration, ii) the increase of the number of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold, both appropriate to given fish species toleration, and iii) the increase of overall number of days within the continual period with temperature above the threshold tolerated by given fish species. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study was funded by project "Building up a multidisciplinary scientific team focused on drought" No. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248.

SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, R.; De Lannoy, G.; Liu, Q.; Ardizzone, J.; Kimball, J.; Koster, R.

2017-01-01

The SMAP Level 4 soil moisture (L4_SM) product provides global estimates of surface and root zone soil moisture, along with other land surface variables and their error estimates. These estimates are obtained through assimilation of SMAP brightness temperature observations into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) land surface model. The L4_SM product is provided at 9 km spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution and with about 2.5 day latency. The soil moisture and temperature estimates in the L4_SM product are validated against in situ observations. The L4_SM product meets the required target uncertainty of 0.04 m(exp. 3)m(exp. -3), measured in terms of unbiased root-mean-square-error, for both surface and root zone soil moisture.

Computed potential energy surfaces for chemical reactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walch, Stephen P.; Levin, Eugene

1993-01-01

A new global potential energy surface (PES) is being generated for O(P-3) + H2 yields OH + H. This surface is being fit using the rotated Morse oscillator method, which was used to fit the previous POL-CI surface. The new surface is expected to be more accurate and also includes a much more complete sampling of bent geometries. A new study has been undertaken of the reaction N + O2 yields NO + O. The new studies have focused on the region of the surface near a possible minimum corresponding to the peroxy form of NOO. A large portion of the PES for this second reaction has been mapped out. Since state to state cross sections for the reaction are important in the chemistry of high temperature air, these studies will probably be extended to permit generation of a new global potential for reaction.

The Greenhouse Effect - Re-examination of the Impact of an Increase in Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Underwood, T. G.

2017-12-01

Examination of the radiation budget at the surface of the Earth shows that there are three factors affecting the surface temperature; the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere and by the surface respectively, and the amount of leakage of infrared radiation emitted from the surface directly into space. If there were no leakage, the upwelling infrared radiation from the Earth's surface would be equal to the incoming solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere plus twice the solar radiation absorbed by the surface. This results from the summation of a sequence of equal upward and downward re-emissions of infrared radiation absorbed by the atmosphere following the initial absorption of solar radiation. At current levels of solar absorption, this would result in total upwelling radiation of approximately 398.6 W/m2, or a maximum surface temperature of 16.4°C. Allowing for leakage of infrared radiation through the atmospheric window, the resulting emission from the Earth's surface is reduced to around 396 W/m2, corresponding to the current average global surface temperature of around 15.9°C. Absorption of solar and infrared radiation by greenhouse gases is determined by the absorption bands for the respective gases and their concentrations. Absorption of incoming solar radiation is largely by water vapor and ozone, and an increase in absorption would reduce not increase the surface temperature. Moreover, it is probable that all emitted infrared radiation that can be absorbed by greenhouse gases, primarily water vapor, with a small contribution from carbon dioxide and ozone, is already fully absorbed, and the leakage of around 5.5 % corresponds to the part of the infrared red spectrum that is not absorbed by greenhouse gases. The carbon dioxide absorption bands, which represent a very small percentage of the infrared spectrum, are most likely fully saturated. In these circumstances, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and carbon dioxide in particular, will have no effect on the emitted radiation. The surface temperature is probably at the thermodynamic limit for the current luminosity of the sun. Satellite based measurements since 1979 suggest that any global warming over the past 150 years may be due to an increase in total solar irradiance, which we are still a decade or two from being able to confirm.

Trends in Surface Temperature at High Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2012-01-01

The earliest signal of a climate change is expected to be found in the polar regions where warming is expected to be amplified on account of ice-albedo feedbacks associated with the high reflectivity of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a general paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the region. Among the most important sensors for monitoring surface temperature has been the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) which was first launched in 1978 and has provided continuous thermal infrared data since 1981. The top of the atmosphere data are converted to surface temperature data through various schemes that accounts for the unique atmospheric and surface conditions in the polar regions. Among the highest source of error in the data is cloud masking which is made more difficult in the polar region because of similar Signatures of clouds and snow lice covered areas. The availability of many more channels in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) launched on board Terra satellite in December 1999 and on board Aqua in May 2002 (e.g., 36 visible and infrared channels compared to 5 for AVHRR) made it possible to minimize the error. Further capabilities were introduced with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) which has the appropriate frequency channels for the retrieval of sea surface temperature (SST). The results of analysis of the data show an amplified warming in the Arctic region, compared with global warming. The spatial distribution of warming is, however, not uniform and during the last 3 decades, positive temperature anomalies have been most pronounced in North America, Greenland and the Arctic basin. Some regions of the Arctic such as Siberia and the Bering Sea surprisingly show moderate cooling but this may be because these regions were anomalously warm in the 1980s when the satellite record started. Also, the SST in the Arctic basin is observed to be anomalously high in 2007 when the perennial ice cover declined dramatically to its lowest extent. In the Antarctic, surface temperature trends are much more moderate with the most positive trends occurring in the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of Western Antarctica while some cooling are observed in the Antarctic Plateau and the Ross Sea. The trends in SST in the region is similar to global averages but precipitation from more evaporation may have a key role in the spatial distribution of surface temperature in the ice covered region

Incorporation of surface albedo-temperature feedback in a one-dimensional radiative-connective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W. C.; Stone, P. H.

1979-01-01

The feedback between ice snow albedo and temperature is included in a one dimensional radiative convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current values of the solar constant and cloud characteristics. The ice snow albedo feedback amplifies global climate sensitivity by 33% and 50%, respectively, for assumptions of constant cloud altitude and constant cloud temperature.

Global water cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Christy, John R.; Goodman, Steven J.; Miller, Tim L.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Lapenta, Bill; Wang, Shouping

1991-01-01

The primary objective is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates changes on both global and regional scales. The following subject areas are covered: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) diabatic heating; (4) MSU (Microwave Sounding Unit) temperature analysis; (5) Optimal precipitation and streamflow analysis; (6) CCM (Community Climate Model) hydrological cycle; (7) CCM1 climate sensitivity to lower boundary forcing; and (8) mesoscale modeling of atmosphere/surface interaction.

Decadally cycling soil carbon is more sensitive to warming than faster-cycling soil carbon.

PubMed

Lin, Junjie; Zhu, Biao; Cheng, Weixin

2015-12-01

The response of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools to globally rising surface temperature crucially determines the feedback between climate change and the global carbon cycle. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally cycling SOC which is the main component of total soil carbon stock and the most relevant to global change. We tackled this issue using two decadally (13) C-labeled soils and a much improved measuring system in a long-term incubation experiment. Results indicated that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally cycling SOC (>23 years in one soil and >55 years in the other soil) was significantly greater than that for faster-cycling SOC (<23 or 55 years) or for the entire SOC stock. Moreover, decadally cycling SOC contributed substantially (35-59%) to the total CO2 loss during the 360-day incubation. Overall, these results indicate that the decomposition of decadally cycling SOC is highly sensitive to temperature change, which will likely make this large SOC stock vulnerable to loss by global warming in the 21st century and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Computer-Based Atlas of Global Instrumental Climate Data (DB1003)

DOE Data Explorer

Bradley, Raymond S.; Ahern, Linda G.; Keimig, Frank T.

1994-01-01

Color-shaded and contoured images of global, gridded instrumental data have been produced as a computer-based atlas. Each image simultaneously depicts anomaly maps of surface temperature, sea-level pressure, 500-mbar geopotential heights, and percentages of reference-period precipitation. Monthly, seasonal, and annual composites are available in either cylindrical equidistant or northern and southern hemisphere polar projections. Temperature maps are available from 1854 to 1991, precipitation from 1851 to 1989, sea-level pressure from 1899 to 1991, and 500-mbar heights from 1946 to 1991. The source of data for the temperature images is Jones et al.'s global gridded temperature anomalies. The precipitation images were derived from Eischeid et al.'s global gridded precipitation percentages. Grids from the Data Support Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) were the sources for the sea-level-pressure and 500-mbar geopotential-height images. All images are in GIF files (1024 × 822 pixels, 256 colors) and can be displayed on many different computer platforms. Each annual subdirectory contains 141 images, each seasonal subdirectory contains 563 images, and each monthly subdirectory contains 1656 images. The entire atlas requires approximately 340 MB of disk space, but users may retrieve any number of images at one time.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Estimating the Mean Annual Surface Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for Sunspot Cycle 24, the Current Ongoing Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

As noted by Gray et al., Sir William Herschel was the first to suggest a possible close connection between the Sun and the Earth’s climate. The Sun, being the source of energy that impacts and drives the Earth’s climate system, displays a variety of changes over both short and long term time scales, the most obvious examples being the somewhat regular waxing and waning of sunspots with time (i.e., the sunspot cycle (SC)), first described by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, a German apothecary and amateur astronomer who observed the Sun from Dessau, Germany, and the now well established variation of the Sun’s irradiance over the SC. Other factors related to the SC have been linked to changes in climate as well. Some of these other factors include the role of cosmic rays and the solar wind (i.e., the geomagnetic cycle) on climate, as well as the apparent close association between trends in global and northern hemispheric temperature and the length of the SC, although some investigators have described the inferred association between climate and, in particular, SC length as now being weak. More recently, Solheim et al. have reported on the relation between SC length and the average temperature in the same and immediately following SC for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. They noted that while they found no significant trend (correlation) between SC length and the average temperature when measured for the same cycle, in contrast, they found a significant negative trend when SC length was compared with the following cycle’s average temperature. From this observation, they suggested that average northern hemispheric temperature during the present ongoing SC (SC24) will be lower by about 0.9 °C than was seen in SC23 (spanning 1996–2007, based on yearly averages of sunspot number (SSN), and onset for SC24 occurring in 2008). The purpose of this Technical Publication (TP) is to examine the annual variations of the Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT) and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI) in relation to SSN and the SC in order to determine their likely values during SC24. Hence, it may provide insight as to whether solar forcing of global temperature is now lessening as a contributor to global warming, thereby indicating a possible cooling in the near term immediate future that potentially could ameliorate the effect of increased anthropogenic warming.

Surface chemical properties of eutectic and frozen NaCl solutions probed by XPS and NEXAFS.

PubMed

Křepelová, Adéla; Huthwelker, Thomas; Bluhm, Hendrik; Ammann, Markus

2010-12-17

We study the surface of sodium chloride-water mixtures above, at, and below the eutectic temperature using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and electron-yield near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy. The NaCl frozen solutions are mimicking sea-salt deposits in ice or snow. Sea-salt particles emitted from the oceans are a major contributor to the global aerosol burden and can act as a catalyst for heterogeneous chemistry or as cloud condensation nuclei. The nature of halogen ions at ice surfaces and their influence on surface melting of ice are of significant current interest. We found that the surface of the frozen solution, depending on the temperature, consists of ice and different NaCl phases, that is, NaCl, NaCl·2H(2)O, and surface-adsorbed water.

Microwave Investigation of the Mars Atmosphere and Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gulkis, S.; Forget, F.; Janssen, M.; Riley, A. L.; Hartogh, P.; Clancy, T.; Allen, M.; Frerking, M.

2000-01-01

The Microwave Investigation of the Mars Atmosphere and Surface Experiment (MIMAS) is designed to address two major scientific goals: 1) To understand the three dimensional general circulation of the Martian atmosphere, and 2) To understand the hydrologic cycle of water on Mars, including the time-variable sources, sinks, and atmospheric transport of water vapor. The proposed instrument is a submillimeter wave, heterodyne receiver, with both continuum and very high spectral resolution capability. A small reflector antenna will be used to feed the receiver. Instrument heritage comes from the MIRO receiver, currently under design for the ESA Rosetta Mission, and from SWAS, a NASA astrophysics mission. The instrument will be able to measure atmospheric spectral lines from both water and carbon monoxide and use these lines as tracers of atmospheric winds. Measurement objectives of MIMAS are to measure surface temperature, atmospheric temperature from the surface up to an altitude of 60 km or more, the distribution of CO and H2O in the atmosphere, and certain wind fields (zonal and meridional). The global distribution of CO, as well as temperature distributions, will be used as input data for GCMs (general circulation models). Water vapor profiles will be used to understand the sources and sinks of water on Mars and to understand how it is transported globally by the general circulation. Zonal and meridional wind fields will provide further tests of the GCMs. An important aspect of this experiment is that the temperature and humidity measurements are insensitive to dust and ice condensates thereby making the measurement capability independent of the presence of dust clouds and ice particles. Temperature measurements derived from the data can be used in conjunction with infrared measurements to determine dust profiles.

The Implement of a Multi-layer Frozen Soil Scheme into SSiB3 and its Evaluation over Cold Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.

2016-12-01

The SSiB3 is a biophysics-based model of land-atmosphere interactions and is designed for global and regional studies. It has three soil layers, three snow layers, as well as one vegetation layer. Soil moisture of the three soil layers, interception water store for the canopy, subsurface soil temperature, ground temperature, canopy temperature and snow water equivalent are all predicted based on the water and energy balance at canopy, soil and snow. SSiB3 substantially enhances the model's capability for cold season studies and produces reasonable results compared with observations. However, frozen soil processes are ignored in the SSiB3 and may have effects on the interannual variability of soil temperature and deep soil memory. A multi-layer comprehensive frozen soil scheme (FSM), which is developed for climate study has been implemented into the SSiB3 to describe soil heat transfer and water flow affected by frozen processed in soil. In the coupled SSiB3-FSM, both liquid water and ice content have been taken into account in the frozen soil hydrologic and thermal property parameterization. The maximum soil layer depth could reach 10 meters thick depending on land conditions. To better evaluate the models' performance, the coupled offline SSiB3-FSM and SSiB3 have been driven from 1948 to 1958 by the Princeton global meteorological data set, respectively. For the 10yrs run, the coupled SSiB3-FSM almost captures the features over different regions, especially cold regions. In order to analysis and compare the differences of SSIB3-FSM and SSIB3 in detail, monthly mean surface temperature for different regions are compared with CAMS data. The statistical results of surface skin temperature show that high latitude regions, Africa, Eastern Australia, and North American monsoon regions have been greatly improved in SSIB3-FSM. For the global statistics, the RMSE of the surface temperature simulated by SSiB3-FSM can be improved about 0.6K compared to SSiB3. In this study, the improvements in the coupled SSiB3-FSM have also been analyzed.

The Hydrological Sensitivity to Global Warming and Solar Geoengineering Derived from Thermodynamic Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleidon, Alex; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Renner, Maik

2015-01-16

We derive analytic expressions of the transient response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming from an extremely simple energy balance model in which turbulent heat fluxes are constrained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. For a given magnitude of steady-state temperature change, this approach predicts the transient response as well as the steady-state change in surface energy partitioning and the hydrologic cycle. We show that the transient behavior of the simple model as well as the steady state hydrological sensitivities to greenhouse warming and solar geoengineering are comparable to results from simulations using highly complex models. Many ofmore » the global-scale hydrological cycle changes can be understood from a surface energy balance perspective, and our thermodynamically-constrained approach provides a physically robust way of estimating global hydrological changes in response to altered radiative forcing.« less

Lightning and middle atmospheric discharges in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siingh, Devendraa; Singh, R. P.; Kumar, Sarvan; Dharmaraj, T.; Singh, Abhay K.; Singh, Ashok K.; Patil, M. N.; Singh, Shubha

2015-11-01

Recent development in lightning discharges including transient luminous events (TLEs) and global electric circuit are discussed. Role of solar activity, convective available potential energy, surface temperature and difference of land-ocean surfaces on convection process are discussed. Different processes of discharge initiation are discussed. Events like sprites and halos are caused by the upward quasi-electrostatic fields associated with intense cloud-to-ground discharges while jets (blue starter, blue jet, gigantic jet) are caused by charge imbalance in thunderstorm during lightning discharges but they are not associated with a particular discharge flash. Elves are generated by the electromagnetic pulse radiated during lightning discharges. The present understanding of global electric circuit is also reviewed. Relation between lightning activity/global electric circuit and climate is discussed.

Near-Real Time Satellite-Retrieved Cloud and Surface Properties for Weather and Aviation Safety Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnis, Patrick; Smith, William L., Jr.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Nguyen, Louis; Palikonda, Rabindra; Hong, Gang; Trepte, Qing Z.; Chee, Thad; Scarino, Benjamin; Spangenberg, Douglas A.;

Near-Real Time Satellite-Retrieved Cloud and Surface Properties for Weather and Aviation Safety Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnis, P.; Smith, W., Jr.; Bedka, K. M.; Nguyen, L.; Palikonda, R.; Hong, G.; Trepte, Q.; Chee, T.; Scarino, B. R.; Spangenberg, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Fleeger, C.; Ayers, J. K.; Chang, F. L.; Heck, P. W.

2014-12-01

Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances provide a valuable source of information for nowcasting and weather forecasting. In recent years, it has been shown that assimilation of cloud top temperature, optical depth, and total water path can increase the accuracies of weather analyses and forecasts. Aircraft icing conditions can be accurately diagnosed in near-real time (NRT) retrievals of cloud effective particle size, phase, and water path, providing valuable data for pilots. NRT retrievals of surface skin temperature can also be assimilated in numerical weather prediction models to provide more accurate representations of solar heating and longwave cooling at the surface, where convective initiation. These and other applications are being exploited more frequently as the value of NRT cloud data become recognized. At NASA Langley, cloud properties and surface skin temperature are being retrieved in near-real time globally from both geostationary (GEO) and low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. Cloud data from GEO satellites over North America are disseminated through NCEP, while those data and global LEO and GEO retrievals are disseminated from a Langley website. This paper presents an overview of the various available datasets, provides examples of their application, and discusses the use of the various datasets downstream. Future challenges and areas of improvement are also presented.

The Chandra M10l Megasecond: Diffuse Emission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuntz, K. D.; Snowden, S. L.

2009-01-01

Because MIOl is nearly face-on, it provides an excellent laboratory in which to study the distribution of X-ray emitting gas in a typical late-type spiral galaxy. We obtained a Chandra observation with a cumulative exposure of roughly 1 Ms to study the diffuse X-ray emission in MlOl. The bulk of the X-ray emission is correlated with the star formation traced by the FUV emission. The global FUV/Xray correlation is non-linear (the X-ray surface brightness is roughly proportional to the square root of the FUV surface brightness) and the small-scale correlation is poor, probably due to the delay between the FUV emission and the X-ray production ill star-forming regions. The X-ray emission contains only minor contributions from unresolved stars (approximates less than 3%), unresolved X-ray point sources (approximates less than 4%), and individual supernova remnants (approximates 3%). The global spectrum of the diffuse emission can be reasonably well fitted with a three component thermal model, but the fitted temperatures are not unique; many distributions of emission measure can produce the same temperatures when observed with the current CCD energy resolution. The spectrum of the diffuse emission depends on the environment; regions with higher X-ray surface brightnesses have relatively stronger hard components, but there is no significant evidence that the temperatures of the emitting components increase with surface brightness.

Characterization and Correction of Aquarius Long Term Calibration Drift Using On-Earth Brightness Temperature Refernces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Shannon; Misra, Sidharth

2013-01-01

The Aquarius/SAC-D mission was launched on June 10, 2011 from Vandenberg Air Force Base. Aquarius consists of an L-band radiometer and scatterometer intended to provide global maps of sea surface salinity. One of the main mission objectives is to provide monthly global salinity maps for climate studies of ocean circulation, surface evaporation and precipitation, air/sea interactions and other processes. Therefore, it is critical that any spatial or temporal systematic biases be characterized and corrected. One of the main mission requirements is to measure salinity with an accuracy of 0.2 psu on montly time scales which requires a brightness temperature stability of about 0.1K, which is a challenging requirement for the radiometer. A secondary use of the Aquarius data is for soil moisture applications, which requires brightness temperature stability at the warmer end of the brightness temperature dynamic range. Soon after launch, time variable drifts were observed in the Aquarius data compared to in-situ data from ARGO and models for the ocean surface salinity. These drifts could arise from a number of sources, including the various components of the retrieval algorithm, such as the correction for direct and reflected galactic emission, or from the instrument brightness temperature calibration. If arising from the brightness temperature calibration, they could have gain and offset components. It is critical that the nature of the drifts be understood before a suitable correction can be implemented. This paper describes the approach that was used to detect and characterize the components of the drift that were in the brightness temperature calibration using on-Earth reference targets that were independent of the ocean model.

Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

2018-04-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

Global Assessment of Land Surface Temperature From Geostationary Satellites and Model Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; Liu, Q.; Minnis, P.; daSilva, A. M., Jr.; Palikonda, R.; Yost, C. R.

2012-01-01

Land surface (or 'skin') temperature (LST) lies at the heart of the surface energy balance and is a key variable in weather and climate models. In this research we compare two global and independent data sets: (i) LST retrievals from five geostationary satellites generated at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and (ii) LST estimates from the quasi-operational NASA GEOS-5 global modeling and assimilation system. The objective is to thoroughly understand both data sets and their systematic differences in preparation for the assimilation of the LaRC LST retrievals into GEOS-5. As expected, mean differences (MD) and root-mean-square differences (RMSD) between modeled and retrieved LST vary tremendously by region and time of day. Typical (absolute) MD values range from 1-3 K in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude regions to near 10 K in regions where modeled clouds are unrealistic, for example in north-eastern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Typically, model estimates of LST are higher than satellite retrievals during the night and lower during the day. RMSD values range from 1-3 K during the night to 2-5 K during the day, but are larger over the 50-120 W longitude band where the LST retrievals are derived from the FY2E platform

Management of Local Stressors Can Improve the Resilience of Marine Canopy Algae to Global Stressors

PubMed Central

Strain, Elisabeth M. A.; van Belzen, Jim; van Dalen, Jeroen; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Airoldi, Laura

2015-01-01

Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by multiple local anthropogenic and global climatic stressors. With the difficulties in remediating global stressors, management requires alternative approaches that focus on local scales. We used manipulative experiments to test whether reducing local stressors (sediment load and nutrient concentrations) can improve the resilience of foundation species (canopy algae along temperate rocky coastlines) to future projected global climate stressors (high wave exposure, increasing sea surface temperature), which are less amenable to management actions. We focused on Fucoids (Cystoseira barbata) along the north-western Adriatic coast in the Mediterranean Sea because of their ecological relevance, sensitivity to a variety of human impacts, and declared conservation priority. At current levels of sediment and nutrients, C. barbata showed negative responses to the simulated future scenarios of high wave exposure and increased sea surface temperature. However, reducing the sediment load increased the survival of C. barbata recruits by 90.24% at high wave exposure while reducing nutrient concentrations resulted in a 20.14% increase in the survival and enhanced the growth of recruited juveniles at high temperature. We conclude that improving water quality by reducing nutrient concentrations, and particularly the sediment load, would significantly increase the resilience of C. barbata populations to projected increases in climate stressors. Developing and applying appropriate targets for specific local anthropogenic stressors could be an effective management action to halt the severe and ongoing loss of key marine habitats. PMID:25807516

Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

2015-12-01

Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

Temperature Inversions and Nighttime Convection in the Martian Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinson, D. P.; Spiga, A.; Lewis, S.; Tellmann, S.; Paetzold, M.; Asmar, S. W.; Häusler, B.

2013-12-01

We are using radio occultation measurements from Mars Express, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and Mars Global Surveyor to characterize the diurnal cycle in the lowest scale height above the surface. We focus on northern spring and summer, using observations from 4 Martian years at local times of 4-5 and 15-17 h. We supplement the observations with results obtained from large-eddy simulations and through data assimilation by the UK spectral version of the LMD Mars Global Circulation Model. We previously investigated the depth of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) and its variations with surface elevation and surface properties. We are now examining unusual aspects of the temperature structure observed at night. Most important, predawn profiles in the Tharsis region contain an unexpected layer of neutral static stability at pressures of 200-300 Pa with a depth of 4-5 km. The mixed layer is bounded above by a midlevel temperature inversion and below by another strong inversion adjacent to the surface. The sharp temperature minimum at the base of the midlevel inversion suggests the presence of a thin water ice cloud layer, with the further implication that radiative cooling at cloud level can induce convective activity at lower altitudes. Conversely, nighttime profiles in Amazonis show no sign of a midlevel inversion or a detached mixed layer. These regional variations in the nighttime temperature structure appear to arise in part from large-scale variations in topography, which have several notable effects. First, the CBL is much deeper in the Tharsis region than in Amazonis, owing to a roughly 6-km difference in surface elevation. Second, large-eddy simulations show that daytime convection is not only deeper above Tharsis but also considerably more intense than it is in Amazonis. Finally, the daytime surface temperatures are comparable in the two regions, so that Tharsis acts as an elevated heat source throughout the CBL. These topographic effects are expected to enhance the vertical mixing of water vapor above elevated terrain, which might lead to the formation and regional confinement of nighttime clouds.

Interactions Between Mineral Surfaces, Substrates, Enzymes, and Microbes Result in Hysteretic Temperature Sensitivities and Microbial Carbon Use Efficiencies and Weaker Predicted Carbon-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

2014-12-01

We hypothesize that the large observed variability in decomposition temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. To test this hypothesis, we developed a numerical model that integrates the Dynamic Energy Budget concept for microbial physiology, microbial trait-based community structure and competition, process-specific thermodynamically ­­based temperature sensitivity, a non-linear mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We show, because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes, and microbes, both temperature sensitivity and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic and highly variable. Further, by mimicking the traditional approach to interpreting soil incubation observations, we demonstrate that the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization for temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4 K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily, and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current earth system models likely over-estimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming.

Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, L. B.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; de Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

2014-12-01

During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation.

A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiubao; Ren, Guoyu; Ren, Yuyu; Fang, Yihe; Liu, Yulian; Xue, Xiaoying; Zhang, Panfeng

2017-07-01

Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998-2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are -0.36, -0.14, and -0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr(-1) (range 0.01-0.09°C yr(-1)); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr−1 (range 0.01–0.09°C yr−1); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. PMID:25589483

A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; MacMartin, Douglas; Rasch, Philip J.

We describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2, CH4, and solar irradiance) that avoids many of the ambiguities introduced by temperature-related climate feedbacks. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to the climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global mean surface temperature constant. Compared to current approaches, this method has two main advantages: (i) the need to define radiative forcing is bypassed and (ii) by maintaining roughly constant global mean temperature, the effects of state dependence on internal feedback strengths are minimized. We demonstrate this approachmore » for several different forcing agents and derive the relationships between these forcing agents in two climate models; comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted functional forms. Transitivity of the relationships between the forcing agents appears to hold within a wide range of forcing. The relationships between the forcing agents obtained from this method are consistent across both models but differ from relationships that would be obtained from calculations of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of controlling for surface temperature feedback effects when separating radiative forcing and climate response.« less

Finite Volume Numerical Methods for Aeroheating Rate Calculations from Infrared Thermographic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daryabeigi, Kamran; Berry, Scott A.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Nowak, Robert J.

2006-01-01

The use of multi-dimensional finite volume heat conduction techniques for calculating aeroheating rates from measured global surface temperatures on hypersonic wind tunnel models was investigated. Both direct and inverse finite volume techniques were investigated and compared with the standard one-dimensional semi-infinite technique. Global transient surface temperatures were measured using an infrared thermographic technique on a 0.333-scale model of the Hyper-X forebody in the NASA Langley Research Center 20-Inch Mach 6 Air tunnel. In these tests the effectiveness of vortices generated via gas injection for initiating hypersonic transition on the Hyper-X forebody was investigated. An array of streamwise-orientated heating striations was generated and visualized downstream of the gas injection sites. In regions without significant spatial temperature gradients, one-dimensional techniques provided accurate aeroheating rates. In regions with sharp temperature gradients caused by striation patterns multi-dimensional heat transfer techniques were necessary to obtain more accurate heating rates. The use of the one-dimensional technique resulted in differences of 20% in the calculated heating rates compared to 2-D analysis because it did not account for lateral heat conduction in the model.

The HYTHIRM Project: Flight Thermography of the Space Shuttle During the Hypersonic Re-entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, Thomas J.; Tomek, Deborah M.; Berger, Karen T.; Zalameda, Joseph N.; Splinter, Scott C.; Krasa, Paul W.; Schwartz, Richard J.; Gibson, David M.; Tietjen, Alan B.; Tack, Steve

2010-01-01

This report describes a NASA Langley led endeavor sponsored by the NASA Engineering Safety Center, the Space Shuttle Program Office and the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate to demonstrate a quantitative thermal imaging capability. A background and an overview of several multidisciplinary efforts that culminated in the acquisition of high resolution calibrated infrared imagery of the Space Shuttle during hypervelocity atmospheric entry is presented. The successful collection of thermal data has demonstrated the feasibility of obtaining remote high-resolution infrared imagery during hypersonic flight for the accurate measurement of surface temperature. To maximize science and engineering return, the acquisition of quantitative thermal imagery and capability demonstration was targeted towards three recent Shuttle flights - two of which involved flight experiments flown on Discovery. In coordination with these two Shuttle flight experiments, a US Navy NP-3D aircraft was flown between 26-41 nautical miles below Discovery and remotely monitored surface temperature of the Orbiter at Mach 8.4 (STS-119) and Mach 14.7 (STS-128) using a long-range infrared optical package referred to as Cast Glance. This same Navy aircraft successfully monitored the Orbiter Atlantis traveling at approximately Mach 14.3 during its return from the successful Hubble repair mission (STS-125). The purpose of this paper is to describe the systematic approach used by the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements team to develop and implement a set of mission planning tools designed to establish confidence in the ability of an imaging platform to reliably acquire, track and return global quantitative surface temperatures of the Shuttle during entry. The mission planning tools included a pre-flight capability to predict the infrared signature of the Shuttle. Such tools permitted optimization of the hardware configuration to increase signal-to-noise and to maximize the available dynamic range while mitigating the potential for saturation. Post flight, analysis tools were used to assess atmospheric effects and to convert the 2-D intensity images to 3-D temperature maps of the windward surface. Comparison of the spatially resolved global thermal measurements to surface thermocouples and CFD prediction is made. Successful demonstration of a quantitative, spatially resolved, global temperature measurement on the Shuttle suggests future applications towards hypersonic flight test programs within NASA, DoD and DARPA along with flight test opportunities supporting NASA's project Constellation.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerry

2014-05-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.; Krivova, N.

2014-12-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

Global convergence in the temperature sensitivity of respiration at ecosystem level.

PubMed

Mahecha, Miguel D; Reichstein, Markus; Carvalhais, Nuno; Lasslop, Gitta; Lange, Holger; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Vargas, Rodrigo; Ammann, Christof; Arain, M Altaf; Cescatti, Alessandro; Janssens, Ivan A; Migliavacca, Mirco; Montagnani, Leonardo; Richardson, Andrew D

2010-08-13

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic CO(2) uptake. Understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate-carbon cycle feedback. We approximated the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature (Q(10)) across 60 FLUXNET sites with the use of a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that Q(10) is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 +/- 0.1. The strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites. The results may partly explain a less pronounced climate-carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models.

Forcing and Responses of the Surface Energy Budget at Summit, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Nathaniel B.

Energy exchange at the Greenland Ice Sheet surface governs surface temperature variability, a factor critical for representing increasing surface melt extent, which portends a rise in global sea level. A comprehensive set of cloud, tropospheric, near-surface and sub-surface measurements at Summit Station is utilized to determine the driving forces and subsequent responses of the surface energy budget (SEB). This budget includes radiative, turbulent, and ground heat fluxes, and ultimately controls the evolution of surface temperature. At Summit Station, clouds radiatively warm the surface in all months with an annual average cloud radiative forcing value of 33 W m -2, largely driven by the occurrence of liquid-bearing clouds. The magnitude of the surface temperature response is dependent on how turbulent and ground heat fluxes modulate changes to radiative forcing. Relationships between forcing terms and responding surface fluxes show that changes in the upwelling longwave radiation compensate for 65-85% (50- 60%) of the total change in radiative forcing in the winter (summer). The ground heat flux is the second largest response term (16% annually), especially during winter. Throughout the annual cycle, the sensible heat flux response is comparatively constant (9%) and latent heat flux response is only 1.5%, becoming more of a factor in modulating surface temperature responses during the summer. Combining annual cycles of these responses with cloud radiative forcing results, clouds warm the surface by an estimated 7.8°C annually. A reanalysis product (ERA-I), operational model (CFSv2), and climate model (CESM) are evaluated utilizing the comprehensive set of SEB observations and process-based relationships. Annually, surface temperatures in each model are warmer than observed with overall poor representation of the coldest surface temperatures. Process-based relationships between different SEB flux terms offer insight into how well a modeling framework represents physical processes and the ability to distinguish errors in forcing versus those in physical representation. Such relationships convey that all three models underestimate the response of surface temperatures to changes in radiative forcing. These results provide a method to expose model deficiencies and indicate the importance of representing surface, sub-surface and boundary-layer processes when portraying cloud impacts on surface temperature variability.

Seasat scatterometer versus scanning multichannel microwave radiometer wind speeds: A comparison on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutin, J.; Etcheto, J.

1990-12-01

The wind speeds obtained from the Seasat A scatterometer system (SASS) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) using two different algorithms were compared on a global scale. The temperature dependence of the sea surface emissivity was shown to be incorrectly modelled. After correcting this effect, regional differences up to ± 3 m s-1 are still observed between both instruments, even though they balance in global averaging, resulting in no bias between the global data sets. Validation experiments of satellite wind speeds should take into account this possibility of regional biases and insure the validity of the measurements everywhere in the global ocean.

Recent changes in solar irradiance and infrared irradiance related with air temperature and cloudiness at the King Sejong Station, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Y.; Kim, J.; Cho, H.; Lee, B.

2006-12-01

The polar region play a critical role in the surface energy balance and the climate system of the Earth. The important question in the region is that what is the role of the Antarctic atmospheric heat sink of global climate. Thus, this study shows the trends of global solar irradiance, infrared irradiance, air temperature and cloudiness measured at the King Sejong station, Antarctica, during the period of 1996-2004 and determines their relationship and variability of the surface energy balance. Annual average of solar radiation and cloudiness is 81.8 Wm-2 and 6.8 oktas and their trends show the decrease of -0.24 Wm-2yr-1(-0.30 %yr-1) and 0.02 oktas yr-1(0.30 %yr-1). The change of solar irradiance is directly related to change of cloudiness and decrease of solar irradiance presents radiative cooling at the surface. Monthly mean infrared irradiance, air temperature and specific humidity shows the decrease of -2.11 Wm^{- 2}yr-1(-0.75 %yr-1), -0.07 'Cyr-1(-5.15 %yr-1) and -0.044 gkg-1yr-1(-1.42 %yr-1), respectively. Annual average of the infrared irradiance is 279.9 Wm-2 and correlated with the air temperature, specific humidity and cloudiness. A multiple regression model for estimation of the infrared irradiance using the components has been developed. Effects of the components on the infrared irradiance changes show 52 %, 19 % and 10 % for air temperature, specific humidity and cloudiness, respectively. Among the components, air temperature has a great influence on infrared irradiance. Despite the increase of cloudiness, the decrease in the infrared irradiance is due to the decrease of air temperature and specific humidity which have a cooling effect. Therefore, the net radiation of the surface energy balance shows radiative cooling of negative 11-24 Wm^{- 2} during winter and radiative warming of positive 32-83 Wm-2 during the summer. Thus, the amount of shortage and surplus at the surface is mostly balanced by turbulent flux of sensible and latent heat.

Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Chandler, M.A.; Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, Gary S.

2005-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) based upon foraminifer, diatom, and ostracod assemblages from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Ma. Pollen records and plant megafossils, although not as well dated, show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport are the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. Despite being a period of global warmth, this interval encompasses considerable variability. Two new SST reconstructions are presented that are designed to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene and to document the spatial distribution and magnitude of SST variability within the mid-Pliocene warm period. These data suggest long-term stability of low-latitude SST and document greater variability in regions of maximum warming. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

PubMed Central

Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Upchurch, Garland R.

1997-02-01

Modelling studies of pre-Quaternary (>2 million years ago) climate implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1, land elevation2 and land-sea distribution3-5 as important factors influencing global climate change over geological timescales. But during times of global warmth, such as the Cretaceous period and Eocene epoch, there are large discrepancies between model simulations of high-latitude and continental-interior temperatures and those indicated by palaeotemperature records6,7. Here we use a global climate model for the latest Cretaceous (66 million years ago) to examine the role played by high- and middle-latitude forests in surface temperature regulation. In our simulations, this forest vegetation warms the global climate by 2.2 °C. The low-albedo deciduous forests cause high-latitude land areas to warm, which then transfer more heat to adjacent oceans, thus delaying sea-ice formation and increasing winter temperatures over coastal land. Overall, the inclusion of some of the physical and physiological climate feedback effects of high-latitude forest vegetation in our simulations reduces the existing discrepancies between observed and modelled climates of the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that these forests may have made an important contribution to climate regulation during periods of global warmth.

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

Radiative Forcing and Temperature Response to Changes in Urban Albedos and Associated CO2 Offsets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; Akbari, Hashem; Mahanama, Sarith; Sednev, Igor; Levinson, Ronnen

2009-01-01

The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the response of the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation to urban albedo changes. Globally, the total outgoing radiation increased by 0.5 W/square m and temperature decreased by -0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in albedo. For the U.S. the total outgoing total radiation increased by 2.3 W/square meter, and temperature decreased by approximately 0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in albedo. These values are for the boreal summer (Tune-July-August). Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be approximately 57 Gt CO2 . A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.

Reply to ''Comments on 'Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as much as Expected?'''

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning

2012-01-01

In response to our article, Why Hasnt Earth Warmed as Much as Expected? (2010), Knutti and Plattner (2012) wrote a rebuttal. The term climate sensitivity is usually defined as the change in global mean surface temperature that is produced by a specified change in forcing, such as a change in solar heating or greenhouse gas concentrations. We had argued in the 2010 paper that although climate models can reproduce the global mean surface temperature history over the past century, the uncertainties in these models, due primarily to the uncertainty in climate forcing by airborne particles, mean that the models lack the confidence to actually constrain the climate sensitivity within useful limits for climate prediction. Knutti and Plattner are climate modelers, and they argued essentially that because the models could reproduce the surface temperature history, the issue we raised was moot. Our response amounts to straightening out this confusion; for the models to be constraining, they must be able to reproduce the surface temperature history with sufficient confidence, not just to match the measurements, but to exclude alternative histories. As before, we concluded that if we can actually make the aerosol measurements using currently available, state-of-the-art techniques, we can determine the aerosol climate forcing to the degree required to constrain that aspect of model climate sensitivity. A technical issue relating to the timescale over which a change in CO2 emissions would be equilibrated in the environmental energy balance was also discussed, again, a matter of differences in terminology.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Sensitivity of Spacebased Microwave Radiometer Observations to Ocean Surface Evaporation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Timothy W.; Li, Li

2000-01-01

Ocean surface evaporation and the latent heat it carries are the major components of the hydrologic and thermal forcing on the global oceans. However, there is practically no direct in situ measurements. Evaporation estimated from bulk parameterization methods depends on the quality and distribution of volunteer-ship reports which are far less than satisfactory. The only way to monitor evaporation with sufficient temporal and spatial resolutions to study global environment changes is by spaceborne sensors. The estimation of seasonal-to-interannual variation of ocean evaporation, using spacebased measurements of wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), and integrated water vapor, through bulk parameterization method,s was achieved with reasonable success over most of the global ocean, in the past decade. Because all the three geophysical parameters can be retrieved from the radiance at the frequencies measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus-7, the feasibility of retrieving evaporation directly from the measured radiance was suggested and demonstrated using coincident brightness temperatures observed by SMMR and latent heat flux computed from ship data, in the monthly time scale. However, the operational microwave radiometers that followed SMMR, the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), lack the low frequency channels which are sensitive to SST. This low frequency channels are again included in the microwave imager (TMI) of the recently launched Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). The radiance at the frequencies observed by both TMI and SSM/I were simulated through an atmospheric radiative transfer model using ocean surface parameters and atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles produced by the reanalysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). From the same ECMWF data set, coincident evaporation is computed using a surface layer turbulent transfer model. The sensitivity of the radiance to evaporation over various seasons and geographic locations are examined. The microwave frequencies with radiance that are significant correlated with evaporation are identify and capability of estimating evaporation directly from TMI will be discussed.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

PubMed

Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

2017-02-14

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-02-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

PubMed Central

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-01-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans. PMID:28195582

A Combined Surface Temperature Dataset for the Arctic from MODIS and AVHRR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodd, E.; Veal, K. L.; Ghent, D.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.

2017-12-01

Surface Temperature (ST) changes in the Polar Regions are predicted to be more rapid than either global averages or responses in lower latitudes. Observations of STs and other changes associated with climate change increasingly confirm these predictions in the Arctic. Furthermore, recent high profile events of anomalously warm temperatures have increased interest in Arctic surface temperatures. It is, therefore, particularly important to monitor Arctic climate change. Satellites are particularly relevant to observations of Polar Regions as they are well-served by low-Earth orbiting satellites. Whilst clouds often cause problems for satellite observations of the surface, in situ observations of STs are much sparser. Previous work at the University of Leicester has produced a combined land, ocean and ice ST dataset for the Arctic using ATSR data (AAST) which covers the period 1995 to 2012. In order to facilitate investigation of more recent changes in the Arctic (2010 to 2016) we have produced another combined surface temperature dataset using MODIS and AVHRR; the Metop-A AVHRR and MODIS Arctic Surface Temperature dataset (AMAST). The method of cloud-clearing, use of auxiliary data for ice classification and the ST retrievals used for each surface-type in AMAST will be described. AAST and AMAST were compared in the time period common to both datasets. We will provide results from this intercomparison, as well as an assessment of the impact of utilising data from wide and narrow swath sensors. Time series of ST anomalies over the Arctic region produced from AMAST will be presented.